[Age structure and genetic diversity of Homatula pycnolepis in the Nujiang River basin].

PubMed

Yue, Xing-Jian; Liu, Shao-Ping; Liu, Ming-Dian; Duan, Xin-Bin; Wang, Deng-Qiang; Chen, Da-Qing

2013-08-01

This study examined the age structure of the Loach, Homatula pycnolepis through the otolith growth rings in 204 individual specimens collected from the Xiaomengtong River of the Nujiang River (Salween River) basin in April, 2008. There were only two different age classes, 1 and 2 years of age-no 3 year olds were detected. The age structure of H. pycnolepis was simple. The complete mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b gene sequences (1140) of 80 individuals from 4 populations collected in the Nujiang River drainage were sequenced and a total of 44 variable sites were found among 4 different haplotypes. The global haplotype diversity (Hd) and nucleotide diversity (Pi) were calculated at 0.7595, 0.0151 respectively, and 0, 0 in each population, indicating a consistent lack of genetic diversity in each small population. There was obvious geographic structure in both the Nujiang River basin (NJB) group, and the Nanding River (NDR) group. The genetic distance between NJB and NDR was calculated at 0.0356, suggesting that genetic divergence resulted from long-term isolation of individual population. Such a simple age structure and a lack of genetic diversity in H. pycnolepis may potentially be due to small populations and locale fishing pressures. Accordingly, the results of this study prompt us to recommend that the NJB, NDR and Lancang River populations should be protected as three different evolutionary significant units or separated management units.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

The leverage of demographic dynamics on carbon dioxide emissions: does age structure matter?

PubMed

Zagheni, Emilio

2011-02-01

This article provides a methodological contribution to the study of the effect of changes in population age structure on carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. First, I propose a generalization of the IPAT equation to a multisector economy with an age-structured population and discuss the insights that can be obtained in the context of stable population theory. Second, I suggest a statistical model of household consumption as a function of household size and age structure to quantitatively evaluate the extent of economies of scale in consumption of energy-intensive goods, and to estimate age-specific profiles of consumption of energy-intensive goods and of CO(2) emissions. Third, I offer an illustration of the methodologies using data for the United States. The analysis shows that per-capita CO(2) emissions increase with age until the individual is in his or her 60s, and then emissions tend to decrease. Holding everything else constant, the expected change in U.S. population age distribution during the next four decades is likely to have a small, but noticeable, positive impact on CO(2) emissions.

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Holmes, Randall R.; Grand, James B.

2007-01-01

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

The age structure of selected countries in the ESCAP region.

PubMed

Hong, S

1982-01-01

The study objective was to examine the age structure of selected countries in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region, using available data and frequently applied indices such as the population pyramid, aged-child ratio, and median age. Based on the overall picture of the age structure thus obtained, age trends and their implication for the near future were arrived at. Countries are grouped into 4 types based on the fertility and mortality levels. Except for Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, the age structure in the 18 ESCAP region countries changed comparatively little over the 1950-80 period. The largest structural change occurred in Singapore, where the proportion of children under age 15 in the population declined significantly from 41-27%, while that of persons 65 years and older more than doubled. This was due primarily to the marked decline in fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 6.7-1.8 during the period. Hong Kong also had a similar major transformation during the same period: the proportion of the old age population increased 2 1/2 times, from 2.5-6.3%. The age structures of the 18 ESCAP countries varied greatly by country. 10 countries of the 2 high fertility and mortality types showed a similar young age structural pattern, i.e., they have higher dependency ratios, a higher proportion of children under 15 years, a lower proportion of population 65 years and older, lower aged-child ratios, and younger median ages than the average countries in the less developed regions of the world. With minimal changes over the 1950-80 period, the gap between these countries and the average of the less developed regions widened. Unlike these 10 (mostly South Asian) countries, moderately low fertility and mortality countries (China, Korea, and Sri Lanka) are located between the world average and the less developed region in most of the indices, particularly during the last decade. Although their rate of population aging is not rapid, they are moving toward it. 5 countries of the low fertility and mortality group basically showed an age structure in between the world average and that of the more developed region. Notable exceptions were Singapore and Hong Kong, which showed younger age structures than the less developed regions in terms of dependency ratios during 1950-60. On an average, the majority of ESCAP countries still have a young population.

Demographic analysis from summaries of an age-structured population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hatfield, Jeff S.

2003-01-01

Demographic analyses of age-structured populations typically rely on life history data for individuals, or when individual animals are not identified, on information about the numbers of individuals in each age class through time. While it is usually difficult to determine the age class of a randomly encountered individual, it is often the case that the individual can be readily and reliably assigned to one of a set of age classes. For example, it is often possible to distinguish first-year from older birds. In such cases, the population age structure can be regarded as a latent variable governed by a process prior, and the data as summaries of this latent structure. In this article, we consider the problem of uncovering the latent structure and estimating process parameters from summaries of age class information. We present a demographic analysis for the critically endangered migratory population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), based only on counts of first-year birds and of older birds. We estimate age and year-specific survival rates. We address the controversial issue of whether management action on the breeding grounds has influenced recruitment, relating recruitment rates to the number of seventh-year and older birds, and examining the pattern of variation through time in this rate.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu Qin, E-mail: zhuqin@fudan.edu.cn; Peng Xizhe, E-mail: xzpeng@fudan.edu.cn

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects onmore » carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.« less

Determinants of genetic structure in a nonequilibrium metapopulation of the plant Silene latifolia.

PubMed

Fields, Peter D; Taylor, Douglas R

2014-01-01

Population genetic differentiation will be influenced by the demographic history of populations, opportunities for migration among neighboring demes and founder effects associated with repeated extinction and recolonization. In natural populations, these factors are expected to interact with each other and their magnitudes will vary depending on the spatial distribution and age structure of local demes. Although each of these effects has been individually identified as important in structuring genetic variance, their relative magnitude is seldom estimated in nature. We conducted a population genetic analysis in a metapopulation of the angiosperm, Silene latifolia, from which we had more than 20 years of data on the spatial distribution, demographic history, and extinction and colonization of demes. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to disentangle which features of the populations contributed to among population variation in allele frequencies, including the magnitude and direction of their effects. We show that population age, long-term size and degree of connectivity all combine to affect the distribution of genetic variance; small, recently-founded, isolated populations contributed most to increase FST in the metapopulation. However, the effects of population size and population age are best understood as being modulated through the effects of connectivity to other extant populations, i.e. FST diminishes as populations age, but at a rate that depends how isolated the population is. These spatial and temporal correlates of population structure give insight into how migration, founder effect and within-deme genetic drift have combined to enhance and restrict genetic divergence in a natural metapopulation.

[Age structure and dynamics of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain of Shanxi Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Shangguan, Tie-Liang; Duan, Yi-Hao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Wei-Hua; Guo, Dong-Gang

2014-11-01

Using the plant survivorship theory, the age structure, and the relationship between tree height and diameter (DBH) of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain were analyzed, and the static life table was compiled and the survival curve plotted. The shuttle shape in age structure of Q. wutaishanica population suggested its temporal stability. The linear regression significantly fitted the positive correlation between tree height and DBH. The maximal life expectancy was observed among the trees beyond the age of the highest mortality and coincided with the lowest point of mortality density, suggesting the strong vitality of the seedlings and young trees that survived in the natural selection and intraspecific competition. The population stability of the Q. wutaishanica population was characterized by the Deevey-II of the survival curve. The dynamic pattern was characterized by the recession in the early phase, growth in the intermediate phase, and stability in the latter phase.

Population characteristics and the suppression of nonnative Burbot

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Zachary B.; Quist, Michael C.; Rhea, Darren T.; Senecal, Anna C.

2016-01-01

Burbot Lota lota were illegally introduced into the Green River, Wyoming, drainage and have since proliferated throughout the system. Burbot in the Green River pose a threat to native species and to socially, economically, and ecologically important recreational fisheries. Therefore, managers of the Green River are interested in implementing a suppression program for Burbot. We collected demographic data on Burbot in the Green River (summer and autumn 2013) and used the information to construct an age-based population model (female-based Leslie matrix) to simulate the population-level response of Burbot to the selective removal of different age-classes. Burbot in the Green River grew faster, matured at relatively young ages, and were highly fecund compared with other Burbot populations within the species’ native distribution. The age-structured population model, in conjunction with demographic information, indicated that the Burbot population in the Green River could be expected to increase under current conditions. The model also indicated that the Burbot population in the Green River would decline once total annual mortality reached 58%. The population growth of Burbot in the Green River was most sensitive to age-0 and age-1 mortality. The age-structured population model indicated that an increase in mortality, particularly for younger age-classes, would result in the effective suppression of the Burbot population in the Green River.

World Population Ageing, 1950-2050.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

Population aging was one of the most distinctive events of the 20th century and will remain important throughout the 21st century. Initially, a phenomenon of more developed countries, the process has recently become apparent in much of the developing world as well. The shift in age structure associated with population aging has a profound impact…

Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model.

PubMed

Johnson, Eric G; Swenarton, Mary Katherine

2016-01-01

The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader's life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles ) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader’s life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water. PMID:27920953

Modeling Chagas Disease at Population Level to Explain Venezuela's Real Data

PubMed Central

González-Parra, Gilberto; Chen-Charpentier, Benito M.; Bermúdez, Moises

2015-01-01

Objectives In this paper we present an age-structured epidemiological model for Chagas disease. This model includes the interactions between human and vector populations that transmit Chagas disease. Methods The human population is divided into age groups since the proportion of infected individuals in this population changes with age as shown by real prevalence data. Moreover, the age-structured model allows more accurate information regarding the prevalence, which can help to design more specific control programs. We apply this proposed model to data from the country of Venezuela for two periods, 1961–1971, and 1961–1991 taking into account real demographic data for these periods. Results Numerical computer simulations are presented to show the suitability of the age-structured model to explain the real data regarding prevalence of Chagas disease in each of the age groups. In addition, a numerical simulation varying the death rate of the vector is done to illustrate prevention and control strategies against Chagas disease. Conclusion The proposed model can be used to determine the effect of control strategies in different age groups. PMID:26929912

The demographic components of population aging in China.

PubMed

Grigsby, J S; Olshansky, S J

1989-01-01

"In this paper we examine measures of population aging in China from 1953 to 1982, and then project population aging to the year 2050 using a cohort-components methodology.... Results indicate that China's population will age at an unprecedented rate over the next 70 years, both in terms of the absolute size of the elderly population and their proportion of the total population. At least 50 percent of the projected increase in population aging in China between 1980 and 2050 will be a product of the momentum for aging that is already built into the present age structure and vital rates. However, prospective trends in the measures of population aging become increasingly more sensitive to varying assumptions about fertility and mortality with time, and as older age groups are considered." excerpt

China: Awakening Giant Developing Solutions to Population Aging

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Ning Jackie; Guo, Man; Zheng, Xiaoying

2012-01-01

As the world's most populous country with the largest aging population and a rapidly growing economy, China is receiving increased attention from both the Chinese government and the governments of other countries that face low fertility and aging problems. This unprecedented shift of demographic structure has repercussions for many aspects of…

Socio-Demographic Determinants of Economic Growth: Age-Structure, Preindustrial Heritage and Sociolinguistic Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crenshaw, Edward; Robison, Kristopher

2010-01-01

This study establishes a socio-demographic theory of international development derived from selected classical and contemporary sociological theories. Four hypotheses are tested: (1. population growth's effect on development depends on age-structure; (2. historic population density (used here as an indicator of preindustrial social complexity)…

Analysis of near infrared spectra for age-grading of wild populations of Anopheles gambiae

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A greater understanding of the age-structure of mosquito populations, especially malaria vectors such as Anopheles gambiae, is important for assessing the risk of infectious mosquitoes, and how vector control interventions may affect this structure. The use of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for a...

A Demographic Analysis of American Geophysical Union Membership with Implications for Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, D. D.

2006-12-01

Demographers use population pyramids to characterize the age/gender structure of societal groups. Diagrams of the population of age cohorts for both sexes assume the shape of a pyramid in rapidly expanding groups, having many more young people than older adults. Stable populations have similar numbers of people in age cohorts from infants through middle-age adults. Shrinking populations have fewer children and relatively larger numbers of adults. Demographic analysis of the American Geophysical Union's (AGU) membership reveals significant differences among the numerous specialties and the membership as a whole. The population structure diagram of the total AGU membership is highly asymmetrical with 77.5% male and 22.5% female. Males outnumber females in every age cohort. This is most noticeable among members born prior to 1945. Males belonging to these cohorts make up 16.5% of the total membership, while female members of equivalent age include 0.8% of the total. The largest membership cohort (29% of the total) is comprised of males born between 1950 and 1964, a group that includes both the "baby boom" generation and post-war petroleum exploration expansion. In contrast, the female cohort with birth years from 1970 to 1979 is the largest grouping of women members (8.4% of AGU's membership). Furthermore, women comprise 36% of the members born since 1965, and only 14.5% of those born before 1965. Considered separately, the female membership's age structure is characteristic of a growing population, while the male side is in relative decline. The population structure of the entire membership is mirrored in some specialties, but there are remarkable differences in others. The largest specialty group (hydrology) includes 16.9% of the total AGU membership and has a population structure that differs little from that of the whole organization. Four specialties, Atmospheric Chemistry, Biogeosciences, and Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, and Marine Geochemistry differ significantly from the aggregate membership. The population structures of these groups are pyramidal, indicating a strong potential for growth. Women also comprise more than 30% of each of these groups and outnumber men in some recent cohorts. Growth potential is unevenly distributed throughout AGU's membership with traditional specialties likely to experience significant decline as the older cohorts retire and die. Strongest growth is most likely to occur in recently recognized interdisciplinary specialties, especially those in which women already constitute a significant fraction of the membership.

On the relationship between cell cycle analysis with ergodic principles and age-structured cell population models.

PubMed

Kuritz, K; Stöhr, D; Pollak, N; Allgöwer, F

2017-02-07

Cyclic processes, in particular the cell cycle, are of great importance in cell biology. Continued improvement in cell population analysis methods like fluorescence microscopy, flow cytometry, CyTOF or single-cell omics made mathematical methods based on ergodic principles a powerful tool in studying these processes. In this paper, we establish the relationship between cell cycle analysis with ergodic principles and age structured population models. To this end, we describe the progression of a single cell through the cell cycle by a stochastic differential equation on a one dimensional manifold in the high dimensional dataspace of cell cycle markers. Given the assumption that the cell population is in a steady state, we derive transformation rules which transform the number density on the manifold to the steady state number density of age structured population models. Our theory facilitates the study of cell cycle dependent processes including local molecular events, cell death and cell division from high dimensional "snapshot" data. Ergodic analysis can in general be applied to every process that exhibits a steady state distribution. By combining ergodic analysis with age structured population models we furthermore provide the theoretic basis for extensions of ergodic principles to distribution that deviate from their steady state. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Demographic Ageing of the South African Population: Past (1945-1985) and Expected Trends (1985-2035). Report S-190.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofmeyr, B. E.; Mostert, W. P.

This report presents demographic data for four racial populations in South Africa (Blacks, Whites, Coloureds, and Asians) and examines trends in the aging of each of these populations. The age structure of a population is determined most directly by fertility and mortality. The findings of this report support a general theory to the effect that…

Population age structure and asset returns: an empirical investigation.

PubMed

Poterba, J M

1998-10-01

"This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the 'prime saving years' 45-60, and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by the claim that the aging of the 'Baby Boom' cohort in the United States is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values. It also addresses the associated claim that asset prices will decline when this large cohort reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that while cross-sectional age-wealth profiles peak for households in their early 60s, cohort data on the asset ownership of the same households show a much less pronounced peak.... The paper then considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock. The results do not suggest any robust relationship between demographic structure and asset returns.... The paper concludes by discussing factors such as international capital flows and forward-looking behavior on the part of market participants that could weaken the relationship between age structure and asset returns in a single nation." excerpt

Optimal Harvesting in an Age-Structured Predator-Prey Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fister, K. Renee; Lenhart, Suzanne

2006-06-15

We investigate optimal harvesting control in a predator-prey model in which the prey population is represented by a first-order partial differential equation with age-structure and the predator population is represented by an ordinary differential equation in time. The controls are the proportions of the populations to be harvested, and the objective functional represents the profit from harvesting. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal control pair are established.

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

[The demographic aging of the Austrian population: on the long-term changes in the age structure in Austria].

PubMed

Kytir, J

1995-01-01

"The Austrian population is presently in the middle of its age structure transition which started with World War I and will continue until the 40s of the next century. Within this time period the number of people aged 60 years or over will increase from about half a million to 2.8 million (1995: 1.6 million) and the share of the elderly will mount from about 9 percent to more than 35 percent (1995: 20 percent). The present article points out the demographic causes for population aging asking whether high fertility and/or high numbers of migrants can stop the aging process. Different measurements of demographic aging in Austria (share of various age groups, mean age and median age, dependency ratios, several aging indices) are calculated for the time period 1869 to 2050. Special attention is paid to regional differences within Austria and to changes of the sex ratio at older ages over time." (EXCERPT)

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 - Consequences for Blood Donation.

PubMed

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-06-01

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

Historical habitat connectivity affects current genetic structure in a grassland species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Z; Cousins, S A O; Herben, T; Plačková, I; Mildén, M; Ehrlén, J

2013-01-01

Many recent studies have explored the effects of present and past landscape structure on species distribution and diversity. However, we know little about the effects of past landscape structure on distribution of genetic diversity within and between populations of a single species. Here we describe the relationship between present and past landscape structure (landscape connectivity and habitat size estimated from historical maps) and current genetic structure in a perennial herb, Succisa pratensis. We used allozymes as co-dominant markers to estimate genetic diversity and deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in 31 populations distributed within a 5 km(2) agricultural landscape. The results showed that current genetic diversity of populations was related to habitat suitability, habitat age, habitat size and habitat connectivity in the past. The effects of habitat age and past connectivity on genetic diversity were in most cases also significant after taking the current landscape structure into account. Moreover, current genetic similarity between populations was affected by past connectivity after accounting for current landscape structure. In both cases, the oldest time layer (1850) was the most informative. Most populations showed heterozygote excess, indicating disequilibrium due to recent gene flow or selection against homozygotes. These results suggest that habitat age and past connectivity are important determinants of distribution of genetic diversity between populations at a scale of a few kilometres. Landscape history may significantly contribute to our understanding of distribution of current genetic structure within species and the genetic structure may be used to better understand landscape history, even at a small scale. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Population dynamics and evaluation of alternative management strategies for nonnative Lake Trout in Priest Lake, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ng, Elizabeth L.; Fredericks, Jim P.; Quist, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush have been introduced widely throughout the western USA to enhance recreational fisheries, but high predatory demand can create challenges for management of yield and trophy fisheries alike. Lake Trout were introduced to Priest Lake, Idaho, during the 1920s, but few fishery-independent data are available to guide current or future management actions. We collected fishery-independent data to describe population dynamics and evaluate potential management scenarios using an age-structured population model. Lake Trout in Priest Lake were characterized by fast growth at young ages, which resulted in young age at maturity. However, adult growth rates and body condition were lower than for other Lake Trout populations. High rates of skipped spawning (>50%) were also observed. Model projections indicated that the population was growing (λ = 1.03). Eradication could be achieved by increasing annual mortality to 0.32, approximately twice the current rate. A protected slot length limit could increase population length-structure, but few fish grew fast enough to exit the slot. In contrast, a juvenile removal scenario targeting age-2 to age-5 Lake Trout maintained short-term harvest of trophy-length individuals while reducing overall population abundance.

Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

PubMed

Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

2017-09-01

A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify key sex-age classes contributing to demographic variance and thus decreasing N e /N in a small age-structured population inhabiting a variable environment. They thereby demonstrate how assessments of N e can incorporate stochastic sex- and age-specific demography and elucidate key demographic processes affecting a population's evolutionary trajectory and viability. Furthermore, our analyses show that N e for the focal chough population is critically small, implying that management to re-establish genetic connectivity may be required to ensure population viability. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Assessing the effects of catch and release regulations on a quality adfluvial brook trout population using a computer based age-structure model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, Casey A.L.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2011-01-01

Assessing the Effects of Catch-and-Release Regulations on a Brook Trout Population Using an Age-Structured Model: North American Journal of Fisheries Management: Vol 30, No 6 var _prum=[['id','54ff88bcabe53dc41d1004a5'],['mark','firstbyte',(new Date()).getTime()

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

Structure of the New England herring gull population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kadlec, J.A.; Drury, W.H.

1968-01-01

Measurements of the rates of population increase, reproduction, and mortality together with an observed age ratio, were used to analyze the population of the Herring Gull in New England. Data from sporadic censuses prior to this study, aerial censuses by the authors, and National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count indicated that the New England breeding population has been doubling every 12 to 15 years since the early 1900's. This increase has involved founding new colonies and expanding the breeding range There is evidence that 15 to 30% of the adults do not breed in any given year. Sixty-one productivity measurements on 43 islands from 1963 through 1966, involving almost 13,000 nests, showed that from 0.8 to 1.4 young/breeding pair/year is the usual range of rate of production. The age distribution in the population was determined by classifying Herring Gulls by plumage category on an aerial census of the coast from Tampico, Mexico, to Cape Sable, Nova Scotia. Of the 622,000 gulls observed, 68% were adults, 17% were second- and third-year birds, and 15% were first-year birds. Mortality rates derived from band recovery data were too high to be consistent with the observed rate of population growth, productivity, and age structure. Loss of bands increasing to the rate of about 20%/year 5 years after banding eliminates most of the discrepancy. The age structure and rate of population increase indicate a mortality rate of 4 to 9% for gulls 2 years old or older, compared with the 25 to 30% indicated by band recoveries. The population structure we have developed fits everything we have observed about Herring Gull population dynamics, except mortality based on band recoveries.

[Fertility of the Yanomami population of Sierra Parima (Amazonas Federal Territory, Venezuela)].

PubMed

Schkolnik, S

1983-08-01

This article presents information on the age structure and level of female fertility obtained on the basis of a sample of the Yanomami population (653 individuals) residing in the Venezuelan margin of Sierra Parima. The population observed is very young, over 50% are less than age 15, and the mean age is 18. The total fertility rate reaches 7.76 children/woman while the age distribution of rates show that fertility begins at a very early age and begins to decrease only after age 30. (author's modified)

An assessment of sauger population characteristics on two Tennessee River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Christy L.; Bettoli, Phillip William; Churchill, Timothy N.

2015-01-01

In 1992, a 356-mm minimum length limit (MLL) was enacted on Kentucky Lake and a 381-mm MLL was enacted on Watts Bar Lake, two mainstem reservoirs on the Tennessee River, in an attempt to reduce exploitation and improve the size structure of the sauger (Sander canadensis) populations. The objectives of this study were to compare sauger population characteristics immediately following (1993–1994) and 15 years after (2008–2009) the regulations took effect, examine spatial and temporal patterns in growth, examine recruitment patterns in each reservoir using a recruitment variability index (RVI), and assess the current likelihood of overfishing. Saugers were collected with experimental gill nets in each reservoir and aged using otoliths. A Beverton-Holt yield-per-recruit model was used to simulate angler yields and estimate the likelihood of growth overfishing. Recruitment overfishing was assessed by examining spawning potential ratios under various MLL and exploitation rate scenarios. The sauger population in Kentucky Lake experienced modest improvements in size and age structure over the 15 years following enactment of more restrictive harvest regulations, whereas the population in Watts Bar Lake changed very little, if at all, in terms of size and age structure. Mean lengths of age-3 sauger were significantly greater in Watts Bar Lake than in Kentucky Lake in both time periods. The RVI values indicated that between 1993 and 2009 the sauger in Kentucky Lake displayed more stable recruitment than the Watts Bar Lake population. Neither population exhibited signs of growth overfishing in 2008–09 under the current length limits; however, the Watts Bar Lake population would be susceptible to recruitment overfishing at high (>40%) exploitation rates if natural mortality was as low as 20%. These analyses have demonstrated that the Watts Bar Lake and Kentucky Lake populations, in terms of size and age structure, have remained relatively stable over 15+ years and the MLLs appear to be conserving the stocks.

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications.

PubMed

Alegana, V A; Atkinson, P M; Pezzulo, C; Sorichetta, A; Weiss, D; Bird, T; Erbach-Schoenberg, E; Tatem, A J

2015-04-06

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 – Consequences for Blood Donation

PubMed Central

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-01-01

Summary This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of ‘non-donors’) in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060. PMID:20737016

Evidence of sustained populations of a small reef fish on artificial structures. Does depth affect production on artificial reefs?

PubMed

Fowler, A M; Booth, D J

2012-03-01

The length frequencies and age structures of resident Pseudanthias rubrizonatus (n = 407), a small protogynous serranid, were measured at four isolated artificial structures on the continental shelf of north-western Australia between June and August 2008, to determine whether these structures supported full (complete size and age-structured) populations of this species. The artificial structures were located in depths between 82 and 135 m, and growth rates of juveniles and adults, and body condition of adults, were compared among structures to determine the effect of depth on potential production. All life-history stages, including recently settled juveniles, females and terminal males, of P. rubrizonatus were caught, ranging in standard length (L(s)) from 16·9 to 96·5 mm. Presumed ages estimated from whole and sectioned otoliths ranged between 22 days and 5 years, and parameter ±s.e. estimates of the von Bertalanffy growth model were L(∞) = 152 ± 34 mm, k = 0·15(±0·05) and t(0) = -1·15(±0·15). Estimated annual growth rates were similar between shallow and deep artificial structures; however, otolith lengths and recent growth of juveniles differed among individual structures, irrespective of depth. The artificial structures therefore sustained full populations of P. rubrizonatus, from recently settled juveniles through to adults; however, confirmation of the maximum age attainable for the species is required from natural populations. Depth placement of artificial reefs may not affect the production of fish species with naturally wide depth ranges. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Effects of aging on sleep structure throughout adulthood: a population-based study.

PubMed

Moraes, Walter; Piovezan, Ronaldo; Poyares, Dalva; Bittencourt, Lia Rita; Santos-Silva, Rogerio; Tufik, Sergio

2014-04-01

Although many studies have shown the evolution of sleep parameters across the lifespan, not many have included a representative sample of the general population. The objective of this study was to describe age-related changes in sleep structure, sleep respiratory parameters and periodic limb movements of the adult population of São Paulo. We selected a representative sample of the city of São Paulo, Brazil that included both genders and an age range of 20-80 years. Pregnant and lactating women, people with physical or mental impairments that prevent self-care and people who work every night were not included. This sample included 1024 individuals who were submitted to polysomnography and structured interviews. We subdivided our sample into five-year age groups. One-way analysis of variance was used to compare age groups. Pearson product-moment was used to evaluate correlation between age and sleep parameters. Total sleep time, sleep efficiency, percentage of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep and slow wave sleep showed a significant age-related decrease (P<0.05). WASO (night-time spent awake after sleep onset), arousal index, sleep latency, REM sleep latency, and the percentage of stages 1 and 2 showed a significant increase (P<0.05). Furthermore, apnea-hypopnea index increased and oxygen saturation decreased with age. The reduction in the percentage of REM sleep significantly correlated with age in women, whereas the reduction in the percentage of slow wave sleep correlated with age in men. The periodic limb movement (PLM) index increased with age in men and women. Sleep structure and duration underwent significant alterations throughout the aging process in the general population. There was an important correlation between age, sleep respiratory parameters and PLM index. In addition, men and women showed similar trends but with different effect sizes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2010-01-01

Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

Different Context but Similar Cognitive Structures: Older Adults in Rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sternäng, Ola; Lövdén, Martin; Kabir, Zarina N; Hamadani, Jena D; Wahlin, Åke

2016-06-01

Most research in cognitive aging is based on literate participants from high-income and Western populations. The extent to which findings generalize to low-income and illiterate populations is unknown. The main aim was to examine the structure of between-person differences in cognitive functions among elderly from rural Bangladesh. We used data from the Poverty and Health in Aging (PHA) project in Bangladesh. The participants (n = 452) were in the age range 60-92 years. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate the fit of a five-factor model (episodic recall, episodic recognition, verbal fluency, semantic knowledge, processing speed) and to examine whether the model generalized across age, sex, and literacy. This study demonstrates that an established model of cognition is valid also among older persons from rural Bangladesh. The model demonstrated strong (or scalar) invariance for age, and partial strong invariance for sex and literacy. Semantic knowledge and processing speed showed weak (or metric) sex invariance, and semantic knowledge demonstrated also sensitivity to illiteracy. In general, women performed poorer on all abilities. The structure of individual cognitive differences established in Western populations also fits a population in rural Bangladesh well. This is an important prerequisite for comparisons of cognitive functioning (e.g., declarative memory) across cultures. It is also worth noting that absolute sex differences in cognitive performance among rural elderly in Bangladesh differ from those usually found in Western samples.

Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues

PubMed Central

Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

2017-01-01

Abstract Although all nations in the America’s face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico’s population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world’s eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the “demographic dividend” of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. PMID:27927730

The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

2002-01-01

This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

Small mammal populations at hazardous waste disposal sites near Houston, Texas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.

1990-01-01

Small mammals were trapped, tagged and recaptured in 0?45 ha plots at six hazardous industrial waste disposal sites to determine if populations, body mass and age structures were different from paired control site plots. Low numbers of six species of small mammals were captured on industrial waste sites or control sites. Only populations of hispid cotton rats at industrial waste sites and control sites were large enough for comparisons. Overall population numbers, age structure, and body mass of adult male and female cotton rats were similar at industrial waste sites and control sites. Populations of small mammals (particularly hispid cotton rats) may not suffice as indicators of environments with hazardous industrial waste contamination.

The Impact of Policies Influencing the Demography of Age-Structured Populations: Lessons from Academies of Sciences

PubMed Central

Riosmena, Fernando; Winkler-Dworak, Maria; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav

2013-01-01

In this paper, we assess the role of policies aimed at regulating the number and age structure of elections on the size and age structure of five European Academies of Sciences. We show the recent pace of ageing and the degree of variation in policies across them and discuss the implications of different policies on the size and age structure of academies. We also illustrate the potential effect of different election regimes (fixed vs. linked) and age structures of election (younger vs. older) by contrasting the steady-state dynamics of different projections of Full Members in each academy into 2070 and measuring the size and age-compositional effect of changing a given policy relative to a status quo policy scenario. Our findings suggest that academies with linked intake (i.e., where the size of the academy below a certain age is fixed and the number of elections is set to the number of members becoming that age) may be a more efficient approach to curb growth without suffering any ageing trade-offs relative to the faster growth of academies electing a fixed number of members per year. We further discuss the implications of our results in the context of stable populations open to migration. PMID:23843677

Unintentional fall-related mortality in the elderly: comparing patterns in two countries with different demographic structure

PubMed Central

Majdan, Marek; Mauritz, Walter

2015-01-01

Objectives Falls are among the major external causes of unintentional injury and injury-related mortality in the elderly. The aim of this study was to compare the patterns of unintentional fall-related mortalities in two countries with different demographic structure: Slovakia and Austria in 2003–2010. Methods A study was conducted using death certificate data, trends of fall-related mortality in the elderly (over 65 years) in Austria and Slovakia were compared. Crude and age-standardised mortality rates were calculated. Rate ratios were used to quantify differences based on age, sex and country. The role of demographic structure and population ageing was considered. Results The annual average crude mortality for Slovakia was 28.82, for Austria 54.19 per 100 000 person-years. Increasing rates were observed towards higher age in both countries. Males had higher mortality than females (1.18 times higher in Austria, 2.4 higher in Slovakia). In ages over 75 years rates were significantly higher in Austria, compared to Slovakia. Injuries to head (in males) and hip (in females) were most commonly the underlying cause of death. The proportion of populations over 65 and over 80 and rate of their increase were higher in Austria than in Slovakia. Conclusions We conclude that higher proportions of the elderly population of Austria could have contributed to the higher fall-related mortality rates compared to Slovakia, especially in females over 80 years. Our study quantified the differences between two countries with different structure of the elderly population and these findings could be used in planning future needs of health and social services and to plan prevention in countries where a rapid increase in age of the population can be foreseen. PMID:26270950

[[Findings of a report on the population structure of rural market towns

PubMed

1985-07-29

This report concerns a survey on the characteristics of the population of four villages in Shunji county, located near Beijing, China. The survey, which was carried out in 1984, covered 12,652 individuals. The results show that the population of adult age is increasing and that a general trend toward demographic aging can be identified. The sex ratio is particularly high in the working ages. Fertility is currently below replacement level.

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications

PubMed Central

Alegana, V. A.; Atkinson, P. M.; Pezzulo, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Weiss, D.; Bird, T.; Erbach-Schoenberg, E.; Tatem, A. J.

2015-01-01

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings. PMID:25788540

Disease spread in age structured populations with maternal age effects.

PubMed

Clark, Jessica; Garbutt, Jennie S; McNally, Luke; Little, Tom J

2017-04-01

Fundamental ecological processes, such as extrinsic mortality, determine population age structure. This influences disease spread when individuals of different ages differ in susceptibility or when maternal age determines offspring susceptibility. We show that Daphnia magna offspring born to young mothers are more susceptible than those born to older mothers, and consider this alongside previous observations that susceptibility declines with age in this system. We used a susceptible-infected compartmental model to investigate how age-specific susceptibility and maternal age effects on offspring susceptibility interact with demographic factors affecting disease spread. Our results show a scenario where an increase in extrinsic mortality drives an increase in transmission potential. Thus, we identify a realistic context in which age effects and maternal effects produce conditions favouring disease transmission. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Tumas, Natalia; Coquet, Julia Becaria; Niclis, Camila; Román, María Dolores; Díaz, María Del Pilar

2017-03-09

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

[Products of bee-keeping and prophylaxis of premature aging].

PubMed

Dubtsova, E A; Kas'ianenko, V I; Komissarenko, I A; Lazebnik, L B

2008-01-01

Natural bee honey is one of compound natural products in which structure more than four hundred various components are revealed, including enzymes, organic acids, vitamins and microelements. One of the basic biological properties of honey is the ability to slow down processes of aging, because there are vitamins E, C, enzymes with antioxidative properties and a succinic acid in its structure. Examination of 193 beekeepers daily using honey in quantity of 57.2 +/- 8.6 gram with definition of their biological age was carried out. The received results have been compared to results of examination of 35 workers who are doing manual labour in the same degree, as the beekeepers, but do not use products of beekeeping. The research has shown that the biological age of 70% of beekeepers is lower than that of the average in population, 15% of beekeepers are of the same and 15% are of higher biological age than that of the average in population. The biological age of people in the group of comparison is lower than the average in population only in 28.6% of cases, corresponds in 31.4% and is higher than the average in population in 40.0% of cases. The biological age of beekeepers appeared not only less, than of the persons who are not using products of beekeeping, but it also is less than biological age of the population as a whole.

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Phillips, Christopher A; Schooley, Robert L; Lowe, Winsor H; Douglas, Marlis R

2012-04-22

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.

Welfare Systems, Aging and Work: An OECD Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Visco, Ignazio

One of the major structural changes facing European economies is the adjustment to an older and more slowly growing population. Aging and lower fertility rates will result in a smaller proportion of the population being in the working age, especially after the year 2010. Estimates are that by 2030 there could be only 2 employed persons for every…

Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues.

PubMed

Angel, Jacqueline L; Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

2016-12-07

Although all nations in the America's face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico's population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world's eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the "demographic dividend" of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of the HIV epidemic on population and household structure: the dynamics and evidence to date.

PubMed

Heuveline, Patrick

2004-06-01

HIV is contracted most frequently at birth and during early adulthood. The epidemic may thus impact the demographic structure and the household structure of affected populations. This paper reviews earlier evidence of such an impact, uses demographic theory to anticipate its changes over time, and reviews the most recent evidence for indications of these changes. Modest increases in the male : female ratio are beginning to show within certain age groups only (approximately 15% among 25-34 year olds). Similarly sized increases in the proportion of 15-29 year olds relative to 30-54 year olds are observed in some age pyramids. These 'youth bulges' are expected to fade out, whereas an aging effect phases in with the fertility impact of the epidemic. In the longer run, the size of all age groups will be reduced, but relatively less so for middle-aged adults. Proportions of orphans and widows have increased in the most affected countries. Fewer remarriage probabilities for widows were observed. Resulting increases in the proportion of female-headed households should only be temporary, as female mortality is catching up with male mortality. The number of double orphans is beginning to increase, but overall, orphans continue to live predominantly with a family member, most often the grandparents if not with the surviving parent. To date, the epidemic's impact on the population and household structure has been limited by demographic (aging) and social (adaptive movements of kin across households) processes that contribute to diffuse the epidemic throughout the entire population and all households.

Decomposing variation in male reproductive success: age-specific variances and covariances through extra-pair and within-pair reproduction.

PubMed

Lebigre, Christophe; Arcese, Peter; Reid, Jane M

2013-07-01

Age-specific variances and covariances in reproductive success shape the total variance in lifetime reproductive success (LRS), age-specific opportunities for selection, and population demographic variance and effective size. Age-specific (co)variances in reproductive success achieved through different reproductive routes must therefore be quantified to predict population, phenotypic and evolutionary dynamics in age-structured populations. While numerous studies have quantified age-specific variation in mean reproductive success, age-specific variances and covariances in reproductive success, and the contributions of different reproductive routes to these (co)variances, have not been comprehensively quantified in natural populations. We applied 'additive' and 'independent' methods of variance decomposition to complete data describing apparent (social) and realised (genetic) age-specific reproductive success across 11 cohorts of socially monogamous but genetically polygynandrous song sparrows (Melospiza melodia). We thereby quantified age-specific (co)variances in male within-pair and extra-pair reproductive success (WPRS and EPRS) and the contributions of these (co)variances to the total variances in age-specific reproductive success and LRS. 'Additive' decomposition showed that within-age and among-age (co)variances in WPRS across males aged 2-4 years contributed most to the total variance in LRS. Age-specific (co)variances in EPRS contributed relatively little. However, extra-pair reproduction altered age-specific variances in reproductive success relative to the social mating system, and hence altered the relative contributions of age-specific reproductive success to the total variance in LRS. 'Independent' decomposition showed that the (co)variances in age-specific WPRS, EPRS and total reproductive success, and the resulting opportunities for selection, varied substantially across males that survived to each age. Furthermore, extra-pair reproduction increased the variance in age-specific reproductive success relative to the social mating system to a degree that increased across successive age classes. This comprehensive decomposition of the total variances in age-specific reproductive success and LRS into age-specific (co)variances attributable to two reproductive routes showed that within-age and among-age covariances contributed substantially to the total variance and that extra-pair reproduction can alter the (co)variance structure of age-specific reproductive success. Such covariances and impacts should consequently be integrated into theoretical assessments of demographic and evolutionary processes in age-structured populations. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.

2016-04-01

We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

The effects of temperature and diet on age grading and population age structure determination in Drosophila.

PubMed

Aw, Wen C; Ballard, J William O

2013-10-01

The age structure of natural population is of interest in physiological, life history and ecological studies but it is often difficult to determine. One methodological problem is that samples may need to be invasively sampled preventing subsequent taxonomic curation. A second problem is that it can be very expensive to accurately determine the age structure of given population because large sample sizes are often necessary. In this study, we test the effects of temperature (17 °C, 23 °C and 26 °C) and diet (standard cornmeal and low calorie diet) on the accuracy of the non-invasive, inexpensive and high throughput near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique to determine the age of Drosophila flies. Composite and simplified calibration models were developed for each sex. Independent sets for each temperature and diet treatments with flies not involved in calibration model were then used to validate the accuracy of the calibration models. The composite NIRS calibration model was generated by including flies reared under all temperatures and diets. This approach permits rapid age measurement and age structure determination in large population of flies as less than or equal to 9 days, or more than 9 days old with 85-97% and 64-99% accuracy, respectively. The simplified calibration models were generated by including flies reared at 23 °C on standard diet. Low accuracy rates were observed when simplified calibration models were used to identify (a) Drosophila reared at 17 °C and 26 °C and (b) 23 °C with low calorie diet. These results strongly suggest that appropriate calibration models need to be developed in the laboratory before this technique can be reliably used in field. These calibration models should include the major environmental variables that change across space and time in the particular natural population to be studied. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antibody responses to avian influenza viruses in wild birds broaden with age

PubMed Central

Manvell, Ruth J.; Schulenburg, Bodo; Shell, Wendy; Wikramaratna, Paul S.; Perrins, Christopher; Sheldon, Ben C.; Brown, Ian H.; Pybus, Oliver G.

2016-01-01

For viruses such as avian influenza, immunity within a host population can drive the emergence of new strains by selecting for viruses with novel antigens that avoid immune recognition. The accumulation of acquired immunity with age is hypothesized to affect how influenza viruses emerge and spread in species of different lifespans. Despite its importance for understanding the behaviour of avian influenza viruses, little is known about age-related accumulation of immunity in the virus's primary reservoir, wild birds. To address this, we studied the age structure of immune responses to avian influenza virus in a wild swan population (Cygnus olor), before and after the population experienced an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in 2008. We performed haemagglutination inhibition assays on sampled sera for five avian influenza strains and show that breadth of response accumulates with age. The observed age-related distribution of antibody responses to avian influenza strains may explain the age-dependent mortality observed during the highly pathogenic H5N1 outbreak. Age structures and species lifespan are probably important determinants of viral epidemiology and virulence in birds. PMID:28003449

[Demographic dynamics, migrants from bordering countries and economic activity in Buenos Aires].

PubMed

Lattes, A E; Bertoncello, R

1997-04-01

The growth and changes--by age, sex, and place of birth--in the structure of the total population of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area and of the subpopulation over 15 years of age and economically active are analyzed for the decade of the 1980s. Study of the economic participation of migrants and its possible influence on levels of employment or unemployment should be carried out within the framework of changes in the population's structure and economic participation. The 1981 and 1991 censuses and the Permanent Survey of Households were the sources of data. Immigration to Argentina has declined considerably in recent years, but it is still a factor in the population growth of metropolitan Buenos Aires. Between the 1981 and 1991 censuses, the population aged 15 and over grew by 10.9/1000, or a total of 827,806 people. Migrants from bordering countries increased in number (by 85,109, or 10.3%) and in proportion to the total population (from 3.9% to 4.6%). Migrant women increased at the highest rate (30.1/1000). The greatest growth occurred among men aged 40 and over and among women aged 35 and over. The growth of the economically active population over age 15 for different groups of national origin, sex, and age showed much greater heterogeneity. In 1991, women from bordering countries represented 3.8% of all women in metropolitan Buenos Aires but 5.7% of the total economically active female population and nearly 7% of the economically active female population aged 35 and over. Women from neighboring countries were responsible for 10.3% of the growth in the economically active female population aged 30-34 and 40-44 between 1981 and 1991. The absolute and relative increases in migrants from neighboring countries and their greater economic participation tend to increase the general level of economic activity.

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population.

PubMed

Bijak, Jakub; Kupiszewska, Dorota; Kupiszewski, Marek; Saczuk, Katarzyna; Kicinger, Anna

2007-03-01

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing.

Exploring Fold Space Preferences of New-born and Ancient Protein Superfamilies

PubMed Central

Edwards, Hannah; Abeln, Sanne; Deane, Charlotte M.

2013-01-01

The evolution of proteins is one of the fundamental processes that has delivered the diversity and complexity of life we see around ourselves today. While we tend to define protein evolution in terms of sequence level mutations, insertions and deletions, it is hard to translate these processes to a more complete picture incorporating a polypeptide's structure and function. By considering how protein structures change over time we can gain an entirely new appreciation of their long-term evolutionary dynamics. In this work we seek to identify how populations of proteins at different stages of evolution explore their possible structure space. We use an annotation of superfamily age to this space and explore the relationship between these ages and a diverse set of properties pertaining to a superfamily's sequence, structure and function. We note several marked differences between the populations of newly evolved and ancient structures, such as in their length distributions, secondary structure content and tertiary packing arrangements. In particular, many of these differences suggest a less elaborate structure for newly evolved superfamilies when compared with their ancient counterparts. We show that the structural preferences we report are not a residual effect of a more fundamental relationship with function. Furthermore, we demonstrate the robustness of our results, using significant variation in the algorithm used to estimate the ages. We present these age estimates as a useful tool to analyse protein populations. In particularly, we apply this in a comparison of domains containing greek key or jelly roll motifs. PMID:24244135

Spatio-temporal variations in age structures of a partially re-established population of northern river otters (Lontra canadensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barrett, Dominic A.; Leslie, David M.

2012-01-01

Examination of age structures and sex ratios is useful in the management of northern river otters (Lontra canadensis) and other furbearers. Reintroductions and subsequent recolonizations of river otters have been well documented, but changes in demographics between expanding and established populations have not been observed. As a result of reintroduction efforts, immigration from Arkansas and northeastern Texas, and other efforts, river otters have become partially reestablished throughout eastern and central Oklahoma. Our objective was to examine age structures of river otters in Oklahoma and identify trends that relate to space (watersheds, county) and time (USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service county trapping records). We predicted that river otters in western areas of the state were younger than river otters occurring farther east. From 2005–2007, we obtained salvaged river otter carcasses from federal and state agencies, and we live-captured other river otters using leg hold traps. Seventy-two river otters were sampled. Overall, sex ratios were skewed toward females (1F∶0.8M), but they did not differ among spatiotemporal scales examined. Teeth were removed from salvaged and live-captured river otters (n  =  63) for aging. One-year old river otters represented the largest age class (30.2%). Proportion of juveniles (<1 y old) in Oklahoma (19.0%) was less than other states. Mean age of river otters decreased from east-to-west in the Arkansas River and its tributaries. Mean age of river otters differed between the Canadian River Watershed (0.8 y) and the Arkansas River Watershed (2.9 y) and the Canadian River Watershed and the Red River Watershed (2.4 y). Proportion of juveniles did not differ among spatiotemporal scales examined. Similar to age structure variations in other mammalian carnivores, colonizing or growing western populations of river otters in Oklahoma contained younger ages than more established eastern populations.

Decorin expression is important for age-related changes in tendon structure and mechanical properties

PubMed Central

Dunkman, Andrew A.; Buckley, Mark R.; Mienaltowski, Michael J.; Adams, Sheila M.; Thomas, Stephen J.; Satchell, Lauren; Kumar, Akash; Pathmanathan, Lydia; Beason, David P.; Iozzo, Renato V.; Birk, David E.; Soslowsky, Louis J.

2013-01-01

The aging population is at an increased risk of tendon injury and tendinopathy. Elucidating the molecular basis of tendon aging is crucial to understanding the age-related changes in structure and function in this vulnerable tissue. In this study, the structural and functional features of tendon aging are investigated. In addition, the roles of decorin and biglycan in the aging process were analyzed using transgenic mice at both mature and aged time points. Our hypothesis is that the increase in tendon injuries in the aging population is the result of altered structural properties that reduce the biomechanical function of the tendon and consequently increase susceptibility to injury. Decorin and biglycan are important regulators of tendon structure and therefore, we further hypothesized that decreased function in aged tendons is partly the result of altered decorin and biglycan expression. Biomechanical analyses of mature (day 150) and aged (day 570) patellar tendons revealed deteriorating viscoelastic properties with age. Histology and polarized light microscopy demonstrated decreased cellularity, alterations in tenocyte shape, and reduced collagen fiber alignment in the aged tendons. Ultrastructural analysis of fibril diameter distributions indicated an altered distribution in aged tendons with an increase of large diameter fibrils. Aged wild type tendons maintained expression of decorin which was associated with the structural and functional changes seen in aged tendons. Aged patellar tendons exhibited altered and generally inferior properties across multiple assays. However, decorin-null tendons exhibited significantly decreased effects of aging compared to the other genotypes. The amelioration of the functional deficits seen in the absence of decorin in aged tendons was associated with altered tendon fibril structure. Fibril diameter distributions in the decorin-null aged tendons were comparable to those observed in the mature wild type tendon with the absence of the subpopulation containing large diameter fibrils. Collectively, our findings provide evidence for age-dependent alterations in tendon architecture and functional activity, and further show that lack of stromal decorin attenuates these changes. PMID:23178232

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Albers, Janice; Green, Nicholas; Moran, Edward H.

2017-01-01

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yayun; Zhao, Tao; Wang, Yanan, E-mail: wyn3615@126.com

Carbon emissions related to population factors have aroused great attention around the world. A multitude of literature mainly focused on single demographic impacts on environmental issues at the national level, and comprehensive studies concerning population-related factors at a city level are rare. This paper employed STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model incorporating PLS (Partial least squares) regression method to examine the influence of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Empirically results manifest that urbanization is the paramount driver. Changes in population age structure have significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions,more » and shrinking young population, continuous expansion of working age population and aging population will keep on increasing environmental pressures. Meanwhile, shrinking household size and expanding floating population boost the discharge of carbon emissions. Besides, per capita consumption is an important contributor of carbon emissions, while industry energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor. Based upon these findings and the specific circumstances of Beijing, policies such as promoting clean and renewable energy, improving population quality and advocating low carbon lifestyles should be enhanced to achieve targeted emissions reductions. - Highlights: • We employed the STIRPAT model to identify population-related factors of carbon emissions in Beijing. • Urbanization is the paramount driver of carbon emissions. • Changes in population age structure exert significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions. • Shrinking household size, expanding floating population and improving consumption level increase carbon emissions. • Industry energy intensity decreases carbon emissions.« less

Detection of a novel, integrative aging process suggests complex physiological integration.

PubMed

Cohen, Alan A; Milot, Emmanuel; Li, Qing; Bergeron, Patrick; Poirier, Roxane; Dusseault-Bélanger, Francis; Fülöp, Tamàs; Leroux, Maxime; Legault, Véronique; Metter, E Jeffrey; Fried, Linda P; Ferrucci, Luigi

2015-01-01

Many studies of aging examine biomarkers one at a time, but complex systems theory and network theory suggest that interpretations of individual markers may be context-dependent. Here, we attempted to detect underlying processes governing the levels of many biomarkers simultaneously by applying principal components analysis to 43 common clinical biomarkers measured longitudinally in 3694 humans from three longitudinal cohort studies on two continents (Women's Health and Aging I & II, InCHIANTI, and the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging). The first axis was associated with anemia, inflammation, and low levels of calcium and albumin. The axis structure was precisely reproduced in all three populations and in all demographic sub-populations (by sex, race, etc.); we call the process represented by the axis "integrated albunemia." Integrated albunemia increases and accelerates with age in all populations, and predicts mortality and frailty--but not chronic disease--even after controlling for age. This suggests a role in the aging process, though causality is not yet clear. Integrated albunemia behaves more stably across populations than its component biomarkers, and thus appears to represent a higher-order physiological process emerging from the structure of underlying regulatory networks. If this is correct, detection of this process has substantial implications for physiological organization more generally.

Changes in Visual Function in the Elderly Population in the United States: 1995-2010.

PubMed

Chen, Yiqun; Hahn, Paul; Sloan, Frank A

2016-06-01

To document recent trends in visual function among the United States population aged 70+ years and investigate how the trends can be explained by inter-temporal changes in: (1) population sociodemographic characteristics, and chronic disease prevalence, including eye diseases (compositional changes); and (2) effects of the above factors on visual function (structural changes). Data from the 1995 Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) and the 2010 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) were merged with Medicare Part B claims in the interview years and the 2 previous years. Decomposition analysis was performed. Respondents from both studies were aged 70+ years. The outcome measure was respondent self-reported visual function on a 6-point scale (from 6 = blind to 1 = excellent). Overall, visual function improved from slightly worse than good (3.14) in 1995 to slightly better than good (2.98) in 2010. A decline in adverse effects of aging on vision was found. Among the compositional changes were higher educational attainment leading to improved vision, and higher prevalence of such diseases as diabetes mellitus, which tended to lower visual function. However, compared to compositional changes, structural changes were far more important, including decreased adverse effects of aging, diabetes mellitus (when not controlling for eye diseases), and diagnosed glaucoma. Although the US population has aged and is expected to age further, visual function improved among elderly persons, especially among persons 80+ years, likely reflecting a favorable role of structural changes identified in this study in mitigating the adverse effect of ongoing aging on vision.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Re-Organizing Universities for the Information Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Annand, David

2007-01-01

University education is still generally conducted within pre-Industrial Age organizational structures. As a result of their inability to evolve the predominant cohort-based classroom structure to more cost-effectively meet the aspirations of burgeoning worldwide populations for higher education, universities may see substantial organizational…

How Immunocontraception Can Contribute to Elephant Management in Small, Enclosed Reserves: Munyawana Population as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Druce, Heleen C.; Mackey, Robin L.; Slotow, Rob

2011-01-01

Immunocontraception has been widely used as a management tool to reduce population growth in captive as well as wild populations of various fauna. We model the use of an individual-based rotational immunocontraception plan on a wild elephant, Loxodonta africana, population and quantify the social and reproductive advantages of this method of implementation using adaptive management. The use of immunocontraception on an individual, rotational basis stretches the inter-calving interval for each individual female elephant to a management-determined interval, preventing exposing females to unlimited long-term immunocontraception use (which may have as yet undocumented negative effects). Such rotational immunocontraception can effectively lower population growth rates, age the population, and alter the age structure. Furthermore, such structured intervention can simulate natural process such as predation or episodic catastrophic events (e.g., drought), which regulates calf recruitment within an abnormally structured population. A rotational immunocontraception plan is a feasible and useful elephant population management tool, especially in a small, enclosed conservation area. Such approaches should be considered for other long-lived, social species in enclosed areas where the long-term consequences of consistent contraception may be unknown. PMID:22174758

Wild European apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill.) population dynamics: insight from genetics and ecology in the Rhine Valley. Priorities for a future conservation programme.

PubMed

Schnitzler, Annik; Arnold, Claire; Cornille, Amandine; Bachmann, Olivier; Schnitzler, Christophe

2014-01-01

The increasing fragmentation of forest habitats and the omnipresence of cultivars potentially threaten the genetic integrity of the European wild apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill). However, the conservation status of this species remains unclear in Europe, other than in Belgium and the Czech Republic, where it has been declared an endangered species. The population density of M. sylvestris is higher in the forests of the upper Rhine Valley (France) than in most European forests, with an unbalanced age-structure, an overrepresentation of adults and a tendency to clump. We characterize here the ecology, age-structure and genetic diversity of wild apple populations in the Rhine Valley. We use these data to highlight links to the history of this species and to propose guidelines for future conservation strategies. In total, 255 individual wild apple trees from six forest stands (five floodplain forests and one forest growing in drier conditions) were analysed in the field, collected and genotyped on the basis of data for 15 microsatellite markers. Genetic analyses showed no escaped cultivars and few hybrids with the cultivated apple. Excluding the hybrids, the genetically "pure" populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity and a weak population structure. Age-structure and ecology studies of wild apple populations identified four categories that were not randomly distributed across the forests, reflecting the history of the Rhine forest over the last century. The Rhine wild apple populations, with their ecological strategies, high genetic diversity, and weak traces of crop-to-wild gene flow associated with the history of these floodplain forests, constitute candidate populations for inclusion in future conservation programmes for European wild apple.

Wild European Apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill.) Population Dynamics: Insight from Genetics and Ecology in the Rhine Valley. Priorities for a Future Conservation Programme

PubMed Central

Schnitzler, Annik; Arnold, Claire; Cornille, Amandine; Bachmann, Olivier; Schnitzler, Christophe

2014-01-01

The increasing fragmentation of forest habitats and the omnipresence of cultivars potentially threaten the genetic integrity of the European wild apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill). However, the conservation status of this species remains unclear in Europe, other than in Belgium and the Czech Republic, where it has been declared an endangered species. The population density of M. sylvestris is higher in the forests of the upper Rhine Valley (France) than in most European forests, with an unbalanced age-structure, an overrepresentation of adults and a tendency to clump. We characterize here the ecology, age-structure and genetic diversity of wild apple populations in the Rhine Valley. We use these data to highlight links to the history of this species and to propose guidelines for future conservation strategies. In total, 255 individual wild apple trees from six forest stands (five floodplain forests and one forest growing in drier conditions) were analysed in the field, collected and genotyped on the basis of data for 15 microsatellite markers. Genetic analyses showed no escaped cultivars and few hybrids with the cultivated apple. Excluding the hybrids, the genetically “pure” populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity and a weak population structure. Age-structure and ecology studies of wild apple populations identified four categories that were not randomly distributed across the forests, reflecting the history of the Rhine forest over the last century. The Rhine wild apple populations, with their ecological strategies, high genetic diversity, and weak traces of crop-to-wild gene flow associated with the history of these floodplain forests, constitute candidate populations for inclusion in future conservation programmes for European wild apple. PMID:24827575

Selection Experiments in the Penna Model for Biological Aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medeiros, G.; Idiart, M. A.; de Almeida, R. M. C.

We consider the Penna model for biological aging to investigate correlations between early fertility and late life survival rates in populations at equilibrium. We consider inherited initial reproduction ages together with a reproduction cost translated in a probability that mother and offspring die at birth, depending on the mother age. For convenient sets of parameters, the equilibrated populations present genetic variability in what regards both genetically programmed death age and initial reproduction age. In the asexual Penna model, a negative correlation between early life fertility and late life survival rates naturally emerges in the stationary solutions. In the sexual Penna model, selection experiments are performed where individuals are sorted by initial reproduction age from the equilibrated populations and the separated populations are evolved independently. After a transient, a negative correlation between early fertility and late age survival rates also emerges in the sense that populations that start reproducing earlier present smaller average genetically programmed death age. These effects appear due to the age structure of populations in the steady state solution of the evolution equations. We claim that the same demographic effects may be playing an important role in selection experiments in the laboratory.

Variation in Age and Size in Fennoscandian Three-Spined Sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

PubMed Central

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2013-01-01

Average age and maximum life span of breeding adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were determined in eight Fennoscandian localities with the aid of skeletochronology. The average age varied from 1.8 to 3.6 years, and maximum life span from three to six years depending on the locality. On average, fish from marine populations were significantly older than those from freshwater populations, but variation within habitat types was large. We also found significant differences in mean body size among different habitat types and populations, but only the population differences remained significant after accounting for variation due to age effects. These results show that generation length and longevity in three-spined sticklebacks can vary significantly from one locality to another, and that population differences in mean body size cannot be explained as a simple consequence of differences in population age structure. We also describe a nanistic population from northern Finland exhibiting long life span and small body size. PMID:24260496

Variation in age and size in Fennoscandian three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

PubMed

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2013-01-01

Average age and maximum life span of breeding adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were determined in eight Fennoscandian localities with the aid of skeletochronology. The average age varied from 1.8 to 3.6 years, and maximum life span from three to six years depending on the locality. On average, fish from marine populations were significantly older than those from freshwater populations, but variation within habitat types was large. We also found significant differences in mean body size among different habitat types and populations, but only the population differences remained significant after accounting for variation due to age effects. These results show that generation length and longevity in three-spined sticklebacks can vary significantly from one locality to another, and that population differences in mean body size cannot be explained as a simple consequence of differences in population age structure. We also describe a nanistic population from northern Finland exhibiting long life span and small body size.

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves.

PubMed

MacNulty, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W; Vucetich, John A; Mech, L David; Stahler, Daniel R; Packer, Craig

2009-12-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacNulty, D.R.; Smith, D.W.; Vucetich, J.A.; Mech, L.D.; Stahler, D.R.; Packer, C.

2009-01-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Predatory senescence in aging wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacNulty, Daniel R.; Smith, Douglas W.; Vucetich, John A.; Mech, L. David; Stahler, Daniel R.; Packer, Craig

2009-01-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.

[An adjustment to the age structure of the Italian population in the 1971 census].

PubMed

Caselli, G; Golini, A; Capocaccia, R

1989-01-01

"Having verified, in the 1971 [Italian] census, the presence of certain anomalous data for cohorts born in 1900, 1911, 1920, 1924, 1930, 1936, 1940, 1948, 1950 and 1960, we assessed the size of the error and estimated the new population total which emerged both by age and year of birth. The method used [is similar] to more classical methods to correct biases in age structure in previous censuses and in those countries where the data available are somewhat lacking. The adjusted values, referring to Italy as a whole, are contained in the text...." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

Terpenoid variations within and among half-sibling avocado trees, Persea americana Mill. (Lauraceae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Variation of plant chemical phenotypes in a population can be explained by a combination of genetic, developmental and environmental factors. The age structure, environmental heterogeneity, and the limits in gene flow in a natural population will determine the variability and the spatial structure o...

Children in an aging society.

PubMed

Uhlenberg, Peter

2009-06-01

This article explores ways in which population aging in the United States between 2010 and 2030 might impact the well-being of children, with a distinction made between advantaged and disadvantaged children. A variety of economic and demographic statistics are used to describe the changing age structure of the population and changing public spending on older people and children. Data from the 1985 General Social Survey and Wave 2 of the National Survey of Families and Households are also used to examine connections between older people and children. In recent decades, there has been a graying of the federal budget, and programs for children have received a declining proportion of domestic spending. These trends will be exaggerated between 2010 and 2030 unless structural changes occur. Grandparents may provide increasing resources for their grandchildren. Age segregation results in relatively few older people being directly involved with children not related to them by kinship. The implications of population aging for children are relevant primarily for disadvantaged children. Disadvantaged children have grandparents with fewest resources and are most in need of public spending. As costs of supporting the older population increase, intentional social changes will be needed to prevent growing inequality among children.

Retrospect and prospect of China's population.

PubMed

Liu, G

1985-03-01

This discussion of the population of China covers the reproductive pattern and fertility rate, the death pattern and mortality, age-sex structure of the population, population and employment, urbanization, migration, and the aging of the population. During the 1949-83 period, China almost doubled her population with an annual natural growth rate of 19/1000. China's reproductive pattern developed from early childbearing, short birth spacing and many births to later childbearing, longer birth spacing and fewer births. China's total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.8 in 1950 and 2.1 in 1983 with an annual decrease of 3%. The annual national income grew at a rate of 7.1%, while the annual growth rate of population 1.9% from 1950-82. Consequently, the national income per capita increased from 50 yuan in 1950 to 338 yuan in 1982. The major factor responsible for the changes is the remarkable decline in the rural fertility rate. The crude death rate dropped from 27.1/1000 in 1963 to 7.1 in 1983 and the infant mortality rate from 179.4/1000 live births in 1936 to 36.6 in 1981. There was also a significant change in the causes of death. Population aged 0-14 in China account for 33.6%, 15-49 for 51.3%, and 50 and over for 15.1% of the total population. China is in the process of transition from an expansive to a stationary population. The age-dependency ratio declined from 68.6% in 1953 and 79.4% in 1964 to 62.6% in 1982. Sex ratios recorded in the 3 population censuses are 105.99 in 1953, 105.45 in 1964, and 105.46 in 1982. Employment in both collective and individual economies did not expand until 1978. Sectoral, occupational, and industrial structures of population started to change rationally with the adjustment and reform of economic management system in 1978. The strategic stress on the employment of China's economically active population should be shifted from farming to diversified economy and urban industry and commerce, from sectors of industrial-agricultural production to those of non-material production, and from expansion of employment to the rise of employment efficiency. The proportion of urban population in China accounted for 20.8% in 1982 with an annual growth rate of 4% during the 1949-82 period. The 1982 population census reveals that 94.4% of China's population resides on the southeast side of Aihui-Tengchong Line. Compared with the statistics in 1953, there was no notable change of the unbalanced population distribution on each side of the Line over the last 50 years. China is comparatively young in its population age structure. 1982 census data show that there were 49.29 million people at age 65 and over in 1982, representing 4.91% of the whole population. It is estimated from the age composition of 1982 and age-specific mortality rate of 1981 that there will be 88 million elderly persons by 2000, 150 million by 2020, and about 300 million as a maximum around 2040.

Home educating in an extended family culture and aging society may fare best during a pandemic.

PubMed

Dawson, Wayne; Yamamoto, Kenji

2009-09-28

Large cities can contain populations that move rapidly from one section to another in an efficient transportation network. An emerging air-borne or contact based pathogen could use these transportation routes to rapidly spread an infection throughout an entire population in a short time. Further, in many developed countries, the aging population is increasing. The family structure in these societies may also affect the course of a disease. To help understand the impact of an epidemic on family structure in a networked population, an individual based computer model that randomly generates networked cities with a specified range of population and disease characteristics and individual schedules, infectivity, transmission and hygiene factors was developed. Several salient issues emerged. First, a city of highly active individuals may in fact diminish the number of fatalities because the average duration of the interactions between agents is reduced. Second, home schooling can significantly improve survival because the institutional clustering of weak individuals is minimized. Third, the worst scenario for an aging population is the nuclear family where the aged population is confined to large housing facilities. Naturally, hygiene is the first barrier to infection. The results suggest that societies where extended families and small groups manage most of their own affairs may also be the most suitable for defense against a pandemic. This may prove applicable in city planning and policy making.

Consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of cannibalism in fluctuating age-structured populations.

PubMed

Wissinger, Scott A; Whiteman, Howard H; Denoël, Mathieu; Mumford, Miranda L; Aubee, Catherine B

2010-02-01

Theory and empirical studies suggest that cannibalism in age-structured populations can regulate recruitment depending on the intensity of intraspecific competition between cannibals and victims and the nature of the cannibalism window, i.e., which size classes interact as cannibals and victims. Here we report on a series of experiments that quantify that window for age-structured populations of salamander larvae and paedomorphic adults. We determined body size limits on cannibalism in microcosms and then the consumptive and nonconsumptive (injuries, foraging and activity, diet, growth) effects on victims in mesocosms with seminatural levels of habitat complexity and alternative prey. We found that cannibalism by the largest size classes (paedomorphs and > or = age 3+ yr larvae) occurs mainly on young-of-the-year (YOY) victims. Surviving YOY and other small larvae had increased injuries, reduced activity levels, and reduced growth rates in the presence of cannibals. Data on YOY survival in an experiment in which we manipulated the density of paedomorphs combined with historical data on the number of cannibals in natural populations indicate that dominant cohorts of paedomorphs can cause observed recruitment failures. Dietary data indicate that ontogenetic shifts in diet should preclude strong intraspecific competition between YOY and cannibals in this species. Thus our results are consistent with previous empirical and theoretical work that suggests that recruitment regulation by cannibalism is most likely when YOY are vulnerable to cannibalism but have low dietary overlap with cannibals. Understanding the role of cannibalism in regulating recruitment in salamander populations is timely, given the widespread occurrences of amphibian decline. Previous studies have focused on extrinsic (including anthropogenic) factors that affect amphibian population dynamics, whereas the data presented here combined with long-term field observations suggest the potential for intrinsically driven population cycles.

Population structure in the Arab world and its impact on integration and development trends.

PubMed

El-hallak, M N

1986-12-01

The author examines three issues: "population structure in the Arab world; trends making for integration and unity among the Arab countries; and economic and social development trends." Data from the United Nations for 1985 and from recent censuses are used to discuss population size, growth, and spatial distribution; the labor force; age and sex distribution; and fertility, mortality, and natural increase. Figures are presented separately for 22 Arab countries. Attention is then given to the relationships between population structure and economic and social development and between development and Arab unity and integration. excerpt

Modeling snail breeding in a bioregenerative life support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalev, V. S.; Manukovsky, N. S.; Tikhomirov, A. A.; Kolmakova, A. A.

2015-07-01

The discrete-time model of snail breeding consists of two sequentially linked submodels: "Stoichiometry" and "Population". In both submodels, a snail population is split up into twelve age groups within one year of age. The first submodel is used to simulate the metabolism of a single snail in each age group via the stoichiometric equation; the second submodel is used to optimize the age structure and the size of the snail population. Daily intake of snail meat by crewmen is a guideline which specifies the population productivity. The mass exchange of the snail unit inhabited by land snails of Achatina fulica is given as an outcome of step-by-step modeling. All simulations are performed using Solver Add-In of Excel 2007.

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

Assessment of Population Status for a White Sucker (Catostomus commersoni) Population Exposed to Bleached Kraft Pulp Mill Effluent

EPA Science Inventory

A predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) collected in the field to alterations in population growth rate. Application of this density dependent population ...

Population demography of an endangered lizard, the Blue Mountains Water Skink

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Information on the age structure within populations of an endangered species can facilitate effective management. The Blue Mountains Water Skink (Eulamprus leuraensis) is a viviparous scincid lizard that is restricted to < 40 isolated montane swamps in south-eastern Australia. We used skeletochronology of phalanges (corroborated by mark-recapture data) to estimate ages of 222 individuals from 13 populations. Results These lizards grow rapidly, from neonatal size (30 mm snout-vent length) to adult size (about 70 mm SVL) within two to three years. Fecundity is low (mean 2.9 offspring per litter) and is affected by maternal body length and age. Offspring quality may decline with maternal age, based upon captive-born neonates (older females gave birth to slower offspring). In contrast to its broadly sympatric (and abundant) congener E. tympanum, E. leuraensis is short-lived (maximum 6 years, vs 15 years for E. tympanum). Litter size and offspring size are similar in the two species, but female E. leuraensis reproduce annually whereas many E. tympanum produce litters biennially. Thus, a low survival rate (rather than delayed maturation or low annual fecundity) is the key reason why E. leuraensis is endangered. Our 13 populations exhibited similar growth rates and population age structures despite substantial variation in elevation, geographic location and swamp size. However, larger populations (based on a genetic estimate of effective population size) contained older lizards, and thus a wider variance in ages. Conclusion Our study suggests that low adult survival rates, as well as specialisation on a rare and fragmented habitat type (montane swamps) contribute to the endangered status of the Blue Mountains Water Skink. PMID:23402634

Avoiding Aging? Social Psychology's Treatment of Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barrett, Anne E.; Redmond, Rebecca; von Rohr, Carmen

2012-01-01

Population aging, in conjunction with social and cultural transformations of the life course, has profound implications for social systems--from large-scale structures to micro-level processes. However, much of sociology remains fairly quiet on issues of age and aging, including the subfield of social psychology that could illuminate the impact of…

Male Kirtland's Warblers' patch-level response to landscape structure during periods of varying population size and habitat amounts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donner, D.M.; Ribic, C.A.; Probst, J.R.

2009-01-01

Forest planners must evaluate how spatiotemporal changes in habitat amount and configuration across the landscape as a result of timber management will affect species' persistence. However, there are few long-term programs available for evaluation. We investigated the response of male Kirtland's Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) to 26 years of changing patch and landscape structure during a large, 26-year forestry-habitat restoration program within the warbler's primary breeding range. We found that the average density of male Kirtland's Warblers was related to a different combination of patch and landscape attributes depending on the species' regional population level and habitat amounts on the landscape (early succession jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests; 15-42% habitat cover). Specifically, patch age and habitat regeneration type were important at low male population and total habitat amounts, while patch age and distance to an occupied patch were important at relatively high population and habitat amounts. Patch age and size were more important at increasing population levels and an intermediate amount of habitat. The importance of patch age to average male density during all periods reflects the temporal buildup and decline of male numbers as habitat suitability within the patch changed with succession. Habitat selection (i.e., preference for wildfire-regenerated habitat) and availability may explain the importance of habitat type and patch size during lower population and habitat levels. The relationship between male density and distance when there was the most habitat on the landscape and the male population was large and still increasing may be explained by the widening spatial dispersion of the increasing male population at the regional scale. Because creating or preserving habitat is not a random process, management efforts would benefit from more investigations of managed population responses to changes in spatial structure that occur through habitat gain rather than habitat loss to further our empirical understanding of general principles of the fragmentation process and habitat cover threshold effects within dynamic landscapes.

Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations.

PubMed

Mazur, D P

1976-02-01

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.

Iowa Population Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

A longevity record for Canada lynx, Lynx canadensis, in western Montana

Treesearch

Jay A. Kolbe; John R. Squires

2006-01-01

The Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) was listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act (USDI Fish and Wildlife Service 2000) in 2000 and is a species of conservation concern in the United States. New insights into the basic demography of southern lynx populations are needed. Data describing population age structures, including maximum ages, will...

Interpretation of age-structure gaps in hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) populations of Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario, Canada

Treesearch

S. A. Vasiliauskas; L. W. Aarssen

2000-01-01

Casual observations have suggested that intermediate size and age gaps may exist in the eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.)Carr.) populations of Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario. This was confirmed in vegetation surveys reported here. Several hypotheses, involving mortality risks at different points in the life cycle of hemlock, are proposed to...

Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

2004-01-01

Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into population models; these results can also be combined with those of other studies to investigate large-scale differences in walleye mortality. Our analysis illustrates the utility of mortality caps for monitoring walleye populations and for establishing realistic management goals.

Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

Spatial Pattern and Population Structure of Artemisia ordosica Shrub in a Desert Grassland under Enclosure, Northwest China.

PubMed

Liu, Jiankang; Zhang, Kebin

2018-05-09

Enclosure is an effective practice for restoring and rehabilitating the degraded grassland ecosystem caused by overgrazing. Shrub species, which are dominant in most desert grasslands in arid and semiarid regions, have some beneficial ecological functions for grassland restoration. However, how the population structure and spatial pattern of the Artemisia ordosica shrub changes in a grassland ecosystem under enclosed practice is not well understood. This study, conducted in the Mu Us desert in northwest China, was designed to measure the A. ordosica population according to the chronosequence of enclosure (enclosure periods ranged from 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, and 25 years), contrasting this with an adjacent continuously grazed grassland. The results showed that the enclosed grasslands had a higher number of individuals of different age classes (seedling, adult, aging, and dead group) and greater population coverage, but shrubs had significant lower ( p < 0.05) crown diameter and height in comparison with those in continuously grazed grassland. Further, enclosed grasslands had a significantly higher ( p < 0.05) Shannon-Wiener index (H) and Evenness index (E), but a significantly lower ( p < 0.05) Richness index (R) than continuously grazed grassland. The crown of A. ordosica showed a significant linear positive correlation with height in all plots across succession, indicating that it was feasible to analyze the age structure by crown. The crown-class distribution structure of the A. ordosica population approximated a Gaussian distribution model in all survey plots. Within the population, seedling and adult groups exhibited aggregated spatial distribution at small scales, while aging and dead A. ordosica groups showed random distribution at almost all scales in different plots. The seedling A. ordosica group showed a positive correlation with adults at small scales in all plots except in 10 years of enclosure. However, it showed independent correlation with aging and dead groups at almost all scales. In long-term enclosed plots, the mortality rate of the A. ordosica population increased, therefore assistance management practices, such as fertilization, mowing, interval grazing, and seasonal grazing, must be employed to maintain population stability after long-term enclosure. This study can improve understanding and clarify the effects of enclosures in the desert grasslands of northwest China.

Steady states and outbreaks of two-phase nonlinear age-structured model of population dynamics with discrete time delay.

PubMed

Akimenko, Vitalii; Anguelov, Roumen

2017-12-01

In this paper we study the nonlinear age-structured model of a polycyclic two-phase population dynamics including delayed effect of population density growth on the mortality. Both phases are modelled as a system of initial boundary values problem for semi-linear transport equation with delay and initial problem for nonlinear delay ODE. The obtained system is studied both theoretically and numerically. Three different regimes of population dynamics for asymptotically stable states of autonomous systems are obtained in numerical experiments for the different initial values of population density. The quasi-periodical travelling wave solutions are studied numerically for the autonomous system with the different values of time delays and for the system with oscillating death rate and birth modulus. In both cases it is observed three types of travelling wave solutions: harmonic oscillations, pulse sequence and single pulse.

Psychometric Analysis of the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire-R18V2 in Adolescent and Young Adult-Aged Central Nervous System Tumor Survivors.

PubMed

Swartz, Maria C; Basen-Engquist, Karen M; Markham, Christine; Lyons, Elizabeth J; Cox, Matthew; Chandra, Joya; Ater, Joann L; Askins, Martha A; Scheurer, Michael E; Lupo, Philip J; Hill, Rachel; Murray, Jeffrey; Chan, Wenyaw; Swank, Paul R

2016-09-01

Adolescent and young adult (AYA)-aged central nervous system (CNS) tumor survivors are an understudied population that is at risk of developing adverse health outcomes, such as obesity. Long-term follow-up guidelines recommend monitoring those at risk of obesity, thus motivating the need for an eating behavior questionnaire. An abbreviated online version of the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire (TFEQ-R18v2) has been developed, but its applicability to this population is not yet known. This study investigated the instrument's factor structure and reliability in this population. AYA-aged CNS tumor survivors (n = 114) aged 15-39 years completed the TFEQ-R18V2 questionnaire online. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine the fit of the three-factor structure (uncontrollable eating, cognitive restraint, and emotional eating [EE]) and reliability (internal consistency of the TFEQ-R18v2). Associations between the three factors and body mass index (BMI) were assessed by linear regression. The theorized three-factor structure was supported in our population (RMSEA = 0.056 and CFI = 0.98) and demonstrated good reliability (α of 0.81-0.93). EE (β = 0.07, 95% CI 0.02-0.13) was positively associated with BMI, whereas the other two subscale scores were not. The TFEQ-R18v2 instrument holds promise for research and clinical use among AYA-aged CNS tumor survivors. The instrument may be a useful tool for researchers to develop tailored weight management strategies. It also may be a valuable tool for clinicians to monitor survivors who are at risk of obesity and to facilitate referral. Our results also suggest that EE in this population should be further investigated as a potential target for intervention.

The projected burden of hearing loss in New Zealand (2011-2061) and the implications for the hearing health workforce.

PubMed

Exeter, Daniel J; Wu, Billy; Lee, Arier C; Searchfield, Grant D

2015-08-07

There is considerable evidence that New Zealand's population is ageing. For example, the median age increased from 29 years in 1951 to 37 years in 2011-12, and will likely increase to 44 years by 2061. While the implications of an ageing population have been studied, to date there is no study investigating the impacts that population ageing will have on hearing health in New Zealand. To explore the changing population structure and estimate the burden of hearing loss in New Zealand between 2011 and 2061. Using three alternative population projections from Statistics New Zealand, we quantify the likely distribution of the population between 2011 and 2061 by age and sex. Published estimates of hearing loss stratified by age and severity of hearing loss were then applied to the population projections to highlight the potential impact that population ageing will have on hearing loss in New Zealand in the next 50 years. We estimated that there were 330,269 people aged ≥14 years with hearing loss and this would increase to 449,453 in 2061. Overall, males have a higher prevalence of hearing loss than females, and while the prevalence of hearing loss among those aged 14-49 years is expected to decrease, the prevalence among the population aged ≥70 years is expected to double between 2011 and 2061. Age, sex and geographical variations in hearing loss are expected in the next 50 years. Further research into ethnic and variations in hearing loss will be instrumental in targeting the future hearing health workforce required to accommodate these increases.

On some genetic consequences of social structure, mating systems, dispersal, and sampling

PubMed Central

Parreira, Bárbara R.; Chikhi, Lounès

2015-01-01

Many species are spatially and socially organized, with complex social organizations and dispersal patterns that are increasingly documented. Social species typically consist of small age-structured units, where a limited number of individuals monopolize reproduction and exhibit complex mating strategies. Here, we model social groups as age-structured units and investigate the genetic consequences of social structure under distinct mating strategies commonly found in mammals. Our results show that sociality maximizes genotypic diversity, which contradicts the belief that social groups are necessarily subject to strong genetic drift and at high risk of inbreeding depression. Social structure generates an excess of genotypic diversity. This is commonly observed in ecological studies but rarely reported in population genetic studies that ignore social structure. This heterozygosity excess, when detected, is often interpreted as a consequence of inbreeding avoidance mechanisms, but we show that it can occur even in the absence of such mechanisms. Many seemly contradictory results from ecology and population genetics can be reconciled by genetic models that include the complexities of social species. We find that such discrepancies can be explained by the intrinsic properties of social groups and by the sampling strategies of real populations. In particular, the number of social groups and the nature of the individuals that compose samples (e.g., nonreproductive and reproductive individuals) are key factors in generating outbreeding signatures. Sociality is an important component of population structure that needs to be revisited by ecologists and population geneticists alike. PMID:26080393

Age- and sex-specific mortality and population structure in sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Burdin, A.M.; Ryazanov, D.A.

2000-01-01

We used 742 beach-cast carcasses to characterize age- and sex-specific sea otter mortality during the winter of 1990-1991 at Bering Island, Russia. We also examined 363 carcasses recovered after the 1989 grounding of the T/V Exxon Valdez, to characterize age and sex composition in the living western Prince William Sound (WPWS) sea otter population. At Bering Island, mortality was male-biased (81%), and 75% were adults. The WPWS population was female-biased (59%) and most animals were subadult (79% of the males and 45% of the females). In the decade prior to 1990-1991 we found increasing sea otter densities (particularly among males), declining prey resources, and declining weights in adult male sea otters at Bering Island. Our findings suggest the increased mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 was a density-dependent population response. We propose male-maintained breeding territories and exclusion of juvenile females by adult females, providing a mechanism for maintaining densities in female areas below densities in male areas and for potentially moderating the effects of prey reductions on the female population. Increased adult male mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 likely modified the sex and age class structure there toward that observed in Prince William Sound.

Population Biology of Intestinal Enterococcus Isolates from Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Individuals in Different Age Groups

PubMed Central

Tedim, Ana P.; Ruiz-Garbajosa, Patricia; Corander, Jukka; Rodríguez, Concepción M.; Cantón, Rafael; Willems, Rob J.; Baquero, Fernando

2014-01-01

The diversity of enterococcal populations from fecal samples from hospitalized (n = 133) and nonhospitalized individuals (n = 173) of different age groups (group I, ages 0 to 19 years; group II, ages 20 to 59 years; group III, ages ≥60 years) was analyzed. Enterococci were recovered at similar rates from hospitalized and nonhospitalized persons (77.44% to 79.77%) of all age groups (75.0% to 82.61%). Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium were predominant, although seven other Enterococcus species were identified. E. faecalis and E. faecium (including ampicillin-resistant E. faecium) colonization rates in nonhospitalized persons were age independent. For inpatients, E. faecalis colonization rates were age independent, but E. faecium colonization rates (particularly the rates of ampicillin-resistant E. faecium colonization) significantly increased with age. The population structure of E. faecium and E. faecalis was determined by superimposing goeBURST and Bayesian analysis of the population structure (BAPS). Most E. faecium sequence types (STs; 150 isolates belonging to 75 STs) were linked to BAPS groups 1 (22.0%), 2 (31.3%), and 3 (36.7%). A positive association between hospital isolates and BAPS subgroups 2.1a and 3.3a (which included major ampicillin-resistant E. faecium human lineages) and between community-based ampicillin-resistant E. faecium isolates and BAPS subgroups 1.2 and 3.3b was found. Most E. faecalis isolates (130 isolates belonging to 58 STs) were grouped into 3 BAPS groups, BAPS groups 1 (36.9%), 2 (40.0%), and 3 (23.1%), with each one comprising widespread lineages. No positive associations with age or hospitalization were established. The diversity and dynamics of enterococcal populations in the fecal microbiota of healthy humans are largely unexplored, with the available knowledge being fragmented and contradictory. The study offers a novel and comprehensive analysis of enterococcal population landscapes and suggests that E. faecium populations from hospitalized patients and from community-based individuals differ, with a predominance of certain clonal lineages, often in association with elderly individuals, occurring in the hospital setting. PMID:25548052

COMPLETED FERTILITY DURING THE TWENTIETH CENTURY: AN EXAMPLE FROM SIX SETTLEMENTS IN NORTHERN GREECE.

PubMed

Zafeiris, Konstantinos N; Kaklamani, Stamatina

2018-02-06

This study aimed to delineate temporal trends and differentials of completed fertility and their relationship with some characteristics of the marriage system in specific anthropological populations of northern Greece. The analysis was based on the life history of quinquennial and decennial birth cohorts of married women born in the 20th century who reproduced solely within the settlements studied. The variables studied were: children ever born, mean age of mother at first marriage, mean age of mother at first child (live birth), mean age of mother at last child and reproductive span. The results indicated that there were significant differences in the demographic characteristics of marriage and that there was an ongoing fertility transition in the 20th century in the populations studied. The mechanism of fertility decline was connected with the gradual reduction of the mean age of the mother at last child, the parallel decrease in the mean age at childbearing and a shortening of the reproductive span. Fertility levels at all times maintained a dynamic character imposed by local cultural, economic and social structures, which, in turn, were part of broader national and international structures, in all the populations studied. A strong trend of convergence of fertility levels was observed among the populations studied.

Evolution of a plastic quantitative trait in an age-structured population in a fluctuating environment.

PubMed

Engen, Steinar; Lande, Russell; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-10-01

We analyze weak fluctuating selection on a quantitative character in an age-structured population not subject to density regulation. We assume that early in the first year of life before selection, during a critical state of development, environments exert a plastic effect on the phenotype, which remains constant throughout the life of an individual. Age-specific selection on the character affects survival and fecundity, which have intermediate optima subject to temporal environmental fluctuations with directional selection in some age classes as special cases. Weighting individuals by their reproductive value, as suggested by Fisher, we show that the expected response per year in the weighted mean character has the same form as for models with no age structure. Environmental stochasticity generates stochastic fluctuations in the weighted mean character following a first-order autoregressive model with a temporally autocorrelated noise term and stationary variance depending on the amount of phenotypic plasticity. The parameters of the process are simple weighted averages of parameters used to describe age-specific survival and fecundity. The "age-specific selective weights" are related to the stable distribution of reproductive values among age classes. This allows partitioning of the change in the weighted mean character into age-specific components. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Healthy aging and myocardium: A complicated process with various effects in cardiac structure and physiology.

PubMed

Nakou, E S; Parthenakis, F I; Kallergis, E M; Marketou, M E; Nakos, K S; Vardas, P E

2016-04-15

It is known that there is an ongoing increase in life expectancy worldwide, especially in the population older than 65years of age. Cardiac aging is characterized by a series of complex pathophysiological changes affecting myocardium at structural, cellular, molecular and functional levels. These changes make the aged myocardium more susceptible to stress, leading to a high prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (heart failure, atrial fibrillation, left ventricular hypertrophy, coronary artery disease) in the elderly population. The aging process is genetically programmed but modified by environmental influences, so that the rate of aging can vary widely among people. We summarized the entire data concerning all the multifactorial changes in aged myocardium and highlighting the recent evidence for the pathophysiological basis of cardiac aging. Keeping an eye on the clinical side, this review will explore the potential implications of the age-related changes in the clinical management and on novel therapeutic strategies potentially deriving from the scientific knowledge currently acquired on cardiac aging process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Population Status for a White Sucker (Catostomus commersoni) Population Exposed to Bleached Kraft Pulp Mill Effluent

EPA Science Inventory

Credible ecological risk assessments often need to include analysis of population-level impacts. In the present study, a predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) co...

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

PubMed Central

Lutz, Wolfgang; KC, Samir

2010-01-01

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA. PMID:20713384

The influence of age and gender on skin-associated microbial communities in urban and rural human populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ying, Shi; Zeng, Dan -Ning; Chi, Liang

Differences in the bacterial community structure associated with 7 skin sites in 71 healthy people over five days showed significant correlations with age, gender, physical skin parameters, and whether participants lived in urban or rural locations in the same city. While body site explained the majority of the variance in bacterial community structure, the composition of the skin-associated bacterial communities were predominantly influenced by whether the participants were living in an urban or rural environment, with a significantly greater relative abundance of Trabulsiella in urban populations. Adults maintained greater overall microbial diversity than adolescents or the elderly, while the intragroupmore » variation among the elderly and rural populations was significantly greater. Lastly, skin-associated bacterial community structure and composition could predict whether a sample came from an urban or a rural resident ~ 5x greater than random.« less

The influence of age and gender on skin-associated microbial communities in urban and rural human populations

DOE PAGES

Ying, Shi; Zeng, Dan -Ning; Chi, Liang; ...

2015-10-28

Differences in the bacterial community structure associated with 7 skin sites in 71 healthy people over five days showed significant correlations with age, gender, physical skin parameters, and whether participants lived in urban or rural locations in the same city. While body site explained the majority of the variance in bacterial community structure, the composition of the skin-associated bacterial communities were predominantly influenced by whether the participants were living in an urban or rural environment, with a significantly greater relative abundance of Trabulsiella in urban populations. Adults maintained greater overall microbial diversity than adolescents or the elderly, while the intragroupmore » variation among the elderly and rural populations was significantly greater. Lastly, skin-associated bacterial community structure and composition could predict whether a sample came from an urban or a rural resident ~ 5x greater than random.« less

Population-level preferences for primary care physicians' characteristics in Japan: a structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Takahashi, Osamu; Ohde, Sachiko; Jacobs, Joshua L; Tokuda, Yasuharu; Yanai, Haruo; Okubo, Tomoya; Shimbo, Takuro; Fukuhara, Shunichi; Hinohara, Shigeaki; Fukui, Tsuguya

2010-01-01

Primary care has potential to play a role for improving the patient care in Japanese health care system; however, little information is available about how patients perceive the roles of primary care physicians (PCPs) within the Japanese health care system. We aimed to assess population-level preferences for PCPs and investigated the extent to which preferences vary in relation to different population groups in Japan. Data were extracted from a cross-sectional questionnaire survey in October 2003. An 18-item questionnaire was used to measure the preferences for PCPs. Exploratory factor analysis was performed to identify latent factors, while confirmatory factor analysis was used to evaluate the fit of the structure using structural equation modeling (SEM). Nationally representative sample of the adult Japanese general population was chosen by controlling for age, sex, and the size of cities. A total of 2,453 adults>or=18-years-old were analyzed. SEM provided a 4-factor structural model of the population-level preference for PCPs, such as clinical competence (path coefficient (pc)=0.72), gate-keeping (pc=0.64), communication with patients or specialists (pc=0.49) and high education (pc=0.25) and demonstrated the best goodness-of-fit. Those who were middle aged, have a high family income, and a high level of education, placed more importance on gate-keeping characteristics, and the rural residents emphasized communication rather than clinical competence. Our results indicate that the preferences for PCPs are divided into four main factors and underscore the variation among preferences according to different population groups, such as age, socioeconomic and educational status, and places of living. These variations should be considered to improve the primary care system in Japan.

[The demographic and professional risks of depopulation of the Russian labor forces (analytical review)].

PubMed

Bashkireva, A S

2010-01-01

The comparative analysis of the aging process of population in the context of demographic transition was represented in this article. The values of the basic medico-demographic indices of aging population for Russia and developed countries were identified. The results of the United Nations forecasts, probabilistic prognosis of quantity and age-gender structure for the Russian population were analyzed. The state of demographic trouble in Russia was convincingly shown. Special attention was given to the examination of the demographic and professional risks of a reduction in the population at the working ages, to an increase in the demographic load on the labor forces. The need for further studies was proven, dedicated to the use of geroprotectors and contemporary gerontotechnologies as means and methods of the prevention of premature work ability reduction, retarding of the aging processes of the worker's organism, decrease in the level of mortality and increase in the professional longevity.

China Report, Political, Sociological and Military Affairs No. 436.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-07-08

time, the southern regimes were opposed by the masses and deserted by their followers, and he could not afford to let the golden opportunity slip...the first 20 years of the next century. This is an inevitable trend. Taking Advantage of the ’ Golden Age’ of a Good Age Population Structure The...above-mentioned facts show that the period from now to the year 2020 will be a " golden age" for our country with regard to the age structure of the

Image-driven Population Analysis through Mixture Modeling

PubMed Central

Sabuncu, Mert R.; Balci, Serdar K.; Shenton, Martha E.; Golland, Polina

2009-01-01

We present iCluster, a fast and efficient algorithm that clusters a set of images while co-registering them using a parameterized, nonlinear transformation model. The output of the algorithm is a small number of template images that represent different modes in a population. This is in contrast with traditional, hypothesis-driven computational anatomy approaches that assume a single template to construct an atlas. We derive the algorithm based on a generative model of an image population as a mixture of deformable template images. We validate and explore our method in four experiments. In the first experiment, we use synthetic data to explore the behavior of the algorithm and inform a design choice on parameter settings. In the second experiment, we demonstrate the utility of having multiple atlases for the application of localizing temporal lobe brain structures in a pool of subjects that contains healthy controls and schizophrenia patients. Next, we employ iCluster to partition a data set of 415 whole brain MR volumes of subjects aged 18 through 96 years into three anatomical subgroups. Our analysis suggests that these subgroups mainly correspond to age groups. The templates reveal significant structural differences across these age groups that confirm previous findings in aging research. In the final experiment, we run iCluster on a group of 15 patients with dementia and 15 age-matched healthy controls. The algorithm produces two modes, one of which contains dementia patients only. These results suggest that the algorithm can be used to discover sub-populations that correspond to interesting structural or functional “modes.” PMID:19336293

Stable Isotopes Provide Insight into Population Structure and Segregation in Eastern North Atlantic Sperm Whales

PubMed Central

Borrell, Asunción; Velásquez Vacca, Adriana; Pinela, Ana M.; Kinze, Carl; Lockyer, Christina H.; Vighi, Morgana; Aguilar, Alex

2013-01-01

In pelagic species inhabiting large oceans, genetic differentiation tends to be mild and populations devoid of structure. However, large cetaceans have provided many examples of structuring. Here we investigate whether the sperm whale, a pelagic species with large population sizes and reputedly highly mobile, shows indication of structuring in the eastern North Atlantic, an ocean basin in which a single population is believed to occur. To do so, we examined stable isotope values in sequential growth layer groups of teeth from individuals sampled in Denmark and NW Spain. In each layer we measured oxygen- isotope ratios (δ18O) in the inorganic component (hydroxyapatite), and nitrogen and carbon isotope ratios (δ15N: δ13C) in the organic component (primarily collagenous). We found significant differences between Denmark and NW Spain in δ15N and δ18O values in the layer deposited at age 3, considered to be the one best representing the baseline of the breeding ground, in δ15N, δ13C and δ18O values in the period up to age 20, and in the ontogenetic variation of δ15N and δ18O values. These differences evidence that diet composition, use of habitat and/or migratory destinations are dissimilar between whales from the two regions and suggest that the North Atlantic population of sperm whales is more structured than traditionally accepted. PMID:24324782

Argon behaviour in an inverted Barrovian sequence, Sikkim Himalaya: The consequences of temperature and timescale on 40Ar/39Ar mica geochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Catherine M.; Warren, Clare J.; Halton, Alison M.; Kelley, Simon P.; Harris, Nigel B. W.

2015-12-01

40Ar/39Ar dating of metamorphic rocks sometimes yields complicated datasets which are difficult to interpret in terms of timescales of the metamorphic cycle. Single-grain fusion and step-heating data were obtained for rocks sampled through a major thrust-sense shear zone (the Main Central Thrust) and the associated inverted metamorphic zone in the Sikkim region of the eastern Himalaya. This transect provides a natural laboratory to explore factors influencing apparent 40Ar/39Ar ages in similar lithologies at a variety of metamorphic pressure and temperature (P-T) conditions. The 40Ar/39Ar dataset records progressively younger apparent age populations and a decrease in within-sample dispersion with increasing temperature through the sequence. The white mica populations span 2-9 Ma within each sample in the structurally lower levels (garnet grade) but only 0-3 Ma at structurally higher levels (kyanite-sillimanite grade). Mean white mica single-grain fusion population ages vary from 16.2 ± 3.9 Ma (2σ) to 13.2 ± 1.3 Ma (2σ) from lowest to highest levels. White mica step-heating data from the same samples yields plateau ages from 14.27 ± 0.13 Ma to 12.96 ± 0.05 Ma. Biotite yield older apparent age populations with mean single-grain fusion dates varying from 74.7 ± 11.8 Ma (2σ) at the lowest structural levels to 18.6 ± 4.7 Ma (2σ) at the highest structural levels; the step-heating plateaux are commonly disturbed. Temperatures > 600 °C at pressures of 0.4-0.8 GPa sustained over > 5 Ma, appear to be required for white mica and biotite ages to be consistent with diffusive, open-system cooling. At lower temperatures, and/or over shorter metamorphic timescales, more 40Ar is retained than results from simple diffusion models suggest. Diffusion modelling of Ar in white mica from the highest structural levels suggests that the high-temperature rocks cooled at a rate of 50-80 °C Ma- 1, consistent with rapid thrusting, extrusion and exhumation along the Main Central Thrust during the mid-Miocene.

Relationship between birth order of spouses with different degrees of consanguineous relationship.

PubMed

Reddy, B M; Malhotra, K C

1991-08-01

The relationship between birth order of spouses with different degrees of consanguinity is examined in a sample of 1826 couples belonging to the endogamous Vadde Fisherfolk of Kolleru Lake, Andhra Pradesh, India. We attempt to explain the wide variation in the frequency of different kinds of consanguineous marriages through the age-sex structure of the population in general and especially of the related families. This structure may also be manifested in the association between the birth orders of spouses. A highly significant and large correlation between the birth orders of spouses in uncle-niece marriages and a gradual decrease in the correlation with increase in remoteness of the relationship between the spouses were observed. Given the distribution of age differences between the spouses and assuming a standard age-sex structure, it seems possible to estimate the optimum frequency with which at least close consanguineous marriages occur in any particular population.

Age, maturation, and population structure of the Humboldt squid Dosidicus gigas off the Peruvian Exclusive Economic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bilin; Chen, Xinjun; Chen, Yong; Tian, Siquan; Li, Jianhua; Fang, Zhou; Yang, Mingxia

2013-01-01

Age, maturation and population structure of the Humboldt squid Dosidicus gigas were studied based on random sampling of the Chinese jigging fishery off the Peruvian Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) during 2008-2010. Estimated ages ranged from 144 to 633 days, confirming that the squid is a short-lived species with longevity no longer than 2 years. Occurrence of mature females and hatching in each month indicated that Humboldt squid spawned year-round. Back-calculated hatching dates for the samples were from January 22nd, 2008 to April 22nd, 2010 with a peak between January and March. Two size-based and two hatching date-based populations could be defined from mantle length (ML) at maturity and back-calculated hatching dates, respectively. Females matured at a larger size than males, and there was a significant difference in ML at maturity between the two hatching groups ( P <0.05). The waters adjacent to 11°S off the Peruvian EEZ may be a potential spawning ground. This study shows the complexity of the population structure and large variability in key life history parameters in the Humboldt squid off the Peruvian EEZ, which should be considered in the assessment and management of this important resource.

Interacting Effects of Newcastle Disease Transmission and Illegal Trade on a Wild Population of White-Winged Parakeets in Peru: A Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Daut, Elizabeth F.; Lahodny, Glenn; Peterson, Markus J.; Ivanek, Renata

2016-01-01

Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru’s most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest in a wild parrot population and highlight the importance of preventing illegal trade. PMID:26816214

Age estimation of burbot using pectoral fin rays, brachiostegal rays, and otoliths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Throughout much of its native distribution, burbot (Lota lota) is a species of conservation concern. Understanding dynamic rate functions is critical for the effective management of sensitive burbot populations, which necessitates accurate and precise age estimates. Managing sensitive burbot populations requires an accurate and precise non-lethal alternative. In an effort to identify a non-lethal ageing structure, we compared the precision of age estimates obtained from otoliths, pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays from 208 burbot collected from the Green River drainage, Wyoming. Additionally, we compared the accuracy of age estimates from pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays to those of otoliths. Dorsal fin rays were immediately deemed a poor ageing structure and removed from further analysis. Age-bias plots of consensus ages derived from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were appreciably different from those obtained from otoliths. Exact agreement between readers and reader confidence was highest for otoliths and lowest for branchiostegal rays. Age-bias plots indicated that age estimates obtained from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were substantially different from age estimates obtained from otoliths. Our results indicate that otoliths provide the most precise age estimates for burbot.

[Urbanization and its consequences for socio-demographic structures in Tunisia].

PubMed

Taamallah, M

1986-01-01

Comparisons are made between rural and urban populations in Tunisia in terms of selected demographic and social factors using official and other published data for the late 1970s and early 1980s. The focus is on the consequences of imbalances created by Tunisia's urbanization for population composition, health, economic development, and certain social structures. The history of urbanization in Tunisia since the end of the nineteenth century is outlined. Urban and rural populations are compared on the basis of sex distribution, age distribution, mortality, and fertility. The relationships among urbanization and economic development, public health, and family structure are considered.

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

Breast cancer age at diagnosis patterns in four Latin American Populations: A comparison with North American countries.

PubMed

Franco-Marina, Francisco; López-Carrillo, Lizbeth; Keating, Nancy L; Arreola-Ornelas, Hector; Marie Knaul, Felicia

2015-12-01

In the Latin America countries (LAC), one in five breast cancer (BC) cases occur in women younger than 45 years, almost twice the frequency seen in developed countries. Most BC cases in younger women are premenopausal and are generally more difficult to detect at early stages and to treat than postmenopausal cancers. We employ data from four high quality population-based registries located in LAC and assess the extent to which the higher frequency of BC occurring in younger women is due to a younger population structure, compared to that of developed countries. Next, we analyze secular and generational trends of incidence rates in search for additional explanations. Using data from the International Agency for Research on cancer, between 1988 and 2007, the age distribution of BC incident cases for registries located in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador is compared to that of USA and Canadian registries, both before and after removing differences in population age structure. An age-period-cohort modelling of incidence rates is also conducted in all compared registries to identify secular and generational effects. BC incident cases in the LAC registries present, on average, at an earlier age than in the USA and Canadian registries and for 2003-2007, between 20 and 27% of cases occur in women aged 20-44. About two thirds of the difference in age distribution between LAC and USA registries is attributable to the younger age distribution in the LAC base populations. The USA registries show the highest age-specific BC incidence rates of all compared aggregated registries, at all ages. However, in all the LAC registries incidence rates are rapidly increasing, fueled by a strong birth cohort effect. This cohort effect may be explained by important reduction in fertility rates occurring during the second half of the 20th century, but also by a greater exposure to other risk factors for BC related to the adoption of life styles more prevalent in developed countries. The younger age at presentation of BC incident cases seen in the analyzed LAC registries, and possibly in many Latin American countries, is not only attributable to their relatively young population age structure but also to the low incidence rates in older women. As more recently born cohorts, with greater exposure to risk factors for postmenopausal BC, reach older age, incidence rates will be more similar to the rates seen in the USA and Canadian registries. There is a need for additional research to identify determinants of the higher BC rate among younger women in these countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting age from cortical structure across the lifespan.

PubMed

Madan, Christopher R; Kensinger, Elizabeth A

2018-03-01

Despite interindividual differences in cortical structure, cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have demonstrated a large degree of population-level consistency in age-related differences in brain morphology. This study assessed how accurately an individual's age could be predicted by estimates of cortical morphology, comparing a variety of structural measures, including thickness, gyrification and fractal dimensionality. Structural measures were calculated across up to seven different parcellation approaches, ranging from one region to 1000 regions. The age prediction framework was trained using morphological measures obtained from T1-weighted MRI volumes collected from multiple sites, yielding a training dataset of 1056 healthy adults, aged 18-97. Age predictions were calculated using a machine-learning approach that incorporated nonlinear differences over the lifespan. In two independent, held-out test samples, age predictions had a median error of 6-7 years. Age predictions were best when using a combination of cortical metrics, both thickness and fractal dimensionality. Overall, the results reveal that age-related differences in brain structure are systematic enough to enable reliable age prediction based on metrics of cortical morphology. © 2018 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent invasion of the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa above the treeline due to climate change: genetic and ecological study in northern Sweden.

PubMed

Truong, C; Palmé, A E; Felber, F

2007-01-01

Mountain birch, Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa, forms the treeline in northern Sweden. A recent shift in the range of the species associated with an elevation of the treeline is commonly attributed to climate warming. Using microsatellite markers, we explored the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline. Low genetic differentiation was found between populations, whereas high genetic diversity was maintained within populations. High level of gene flow compensated for possible losses of genetic diversity at higher elevations and dissipated the founding effect of newly established populations above the treeline. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed low spatial genetic structure within populations because of extensive gene flow. At the treeline, significant genetic structure within the juvenile age class at small distances did not persist in the adult age class, indicating recent expansion of young recruits due to the warming of the climate. Finally, seedling performance above the treeline was positively correlated with parameters related to temperature. These data confirm the high migration potential of the species in response to fluctuating environmental conditions and indicate that it is now invading higher altitudes due to the recent warming of the climate.

Growth, population structure, and reproduction of western pond turtles (Actinemys marmorata) on the central coast of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Germano, D.J.; Rathbun, G.B.

2008-01-01

We studied the population structure and growth of western pond turtles (Actinemys marmorata) at Vandenberg Air Force Base along the coast of central California in April 1995 and June 1996. We captured 179 individuals (115 males, 27 females) from 7 ponds during 26 days of trapping. Many turtles were adult-sized, but based on scute annuli, 74% were < 10 years of age, including many 2- to 3-year-olds. This population structure likely was due to a relatively fast growth rate, especially compared with closely related aquatic turtles in eastern North America. Mean clutch size was 5.2, but 66.7% of females were gravid, and 1 female produced 2 clutches. These reproductive data are similar to those reported for other populations in the southern portion of the species' range. Females reached reproductive maturity as early as 4 years of age. The relatively mild temperatures of California's Mediterranean climate, especially when compared to the seasonal extremes in more continental and northern regions of North America, may explain the different growth rates and population characteristics of freshwater turtles from these 2 regions of North America. ?? 2008 Chelonian Research Foundation.

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

The growth and population dynamics of seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in Suli Waters, Ambon Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tupan, C. I.; Uneputty, Pr A.

2017-10-01

The objectives of the research were to determined growth of rhizome, age structure, recruitment rate, and mortality rate of Thalassia hemprichii. Data were collected by using reconstruction technique which the measurements were based on past growth history. The age of seagrass was based on plastochrone interval. The recruitment rate was estimated by age structure of living shoots while mortality rate was estimated by age structure of dead shoots. The research was conducted on coastal waters of Suli where divided into two stations with different substrates, namely mixed substrates of sand and mud (S1) and mixed substrates of sand and coral fragment (S2). The growth rate of horizontal rhizome ranged from 4.15-8.68 cm.year-1 whereas the growth rate of vertical rhizome was 1.11-1.16 cm.year-1. The average age of T. hemprichii varied between 3.22-4.15 years. The youngest shoots were found at age 0.38 years and the oldest shoots were 7.82 years. Distribution of age was polymodal which reflecting cohort. The recruitment rate ranged from 0.23-0.54 year-1. Otherwise, the mortality rate ranged from 0.21-0.26 year-1.Seagrass population of T. hemprichii in Suli Waters indicated an increasing condition which shown by higher recruitment rate than mortality rate.

An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

PubMed

Liu, Z; Liu, L

1988-12-01

Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Demography, life history, and the evolution of age-dependent social behaviour.

PubMed

Rodrigues, António M M

2018-06-14

Since the inception of modern social evolution theory, a vast majority of studies have sought to explain cooperation using relatedness-driven hypotheses. Natural populations, however, show a substantial amount of variation in social behaviour that is uncorrelated with relatedness. Age offers a major alternative explanation for variation in behaviour that remains unaccounted for. Most natural populations are structured into age-classes, with ageing being a nearly universal feature of most major taxa, including eukaryotic and prokaryotic organisms. Despite this, the theoretical underpinnings of age-dependent social behaviour remain limited. Here, we investigate how group age-composition, demography, and life history shape trajectories of age-dependent behaviours that are expressed conditionally on an actor and recipient's age. We show that demography introduces novel age-dependent selective pressures acting on social phenotypes. Furthermore, we find that life history traits influence the costs and benefits of cooperation directly, but also indirectly. Life history has a strong impact not only on the genetic structure of the population but also on the distribution of group age-compositions, with both of these processes influencing the expression of age-dependent cooperation. Age of peak reproductive performance, in particular, is of chief importance for the evolution of cooperation, as this will largely determine the age and relatedness of social partners. Moreover, our results suggest that later-life reproductive senescence may occur because of demographic effects alone, which opens new vistas on the evolution of menopause and related phenomena. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Effects of structural complexity enhancement on eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) populations in northern hardwood forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenny, H.C.; Keeton, W.S.; Donovan, T.M.

2006-01-01

Managing for stand structural complexity in northern hardwood forests has been proposed as a method for promoting microhabitat characteristics important to eastern red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). We evaluated the effects of alternate, structure-based silvicultural systems on red-backed salamander populations at two research sites in northwestern Vermont. Treatments included two uneven-aged approaches (single-tree selection and group-selection) and one unconventional approach, termed "structural complexity enhancement" (SCE), that promotes development of late-successional structure, including elevated levels of coarse woody debris (CWD). Treatments were applied to 2 ha units and were replicated two to four times depending on treatment. We surveyed red-backed salamanders with a natural cover search method of transects nested within vegetation plots 1 year after logging. Abundance estimates corrected for detection probability were calculated from survey data with a binomial mixture model. Abundance estimates differed between study areas and were influenced by forest structural characteristics. Model selection was conducted using Akaike Information Criteria, corrected for over-dispersed data and small sample size (QAICc). We found no difference in abundance as a response to treatment as a whole, suggesting that all of the uneven-aged silvicultural systems evaluated can maintain salamander populations after harvest. However, abundance was tied to specific structural habitat attributes associated with study plots within treatments. The most parsimonious model of habitat covariates included site, relative density of overstory trees, and density of more-decayed and less-decayed downed CWD. Abundance responded positively to the density of downed, well-decayed CWD and negatively to the density of poorly decayed CWD and to overstory relative density. CWD volume was not a strong predictor of salamander abundance. We conclude that structural complexity enhancement and the two uneven-aged approaches maintained important microhabitat characteristics for red-backed salamander populations in the short term. Over the long-term, given decay processes as a determinant of biological availability, forestry practices such as SCE that enhance CWD availability and recruitment may result in associated population responses. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Relationship between Age Structure and Homicide Rates in the United States, 1970 to 1999

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Julie A.

2006-01-01

The nature of the temporal association between age structure and homicide rates between 1970 and 1999 is examined using U.S. county data. Specifically, the following questions are asked: (a) does the strong temporal association between the relative size of the young population and homicide rates demonstrated at the U.S. national level hold at a…

Age Determination by Back Length for African Savanna Elephants: Extending Age Assessment Techniques for Aerial-Based Surveys

PubMed Central

Trimble, Morgan J.; van Aarde, Rudi J.; Ferreira, Sam M.; Nørgaard, Camilla F.; Fourie, Johan; Lee, Phyllis C.; Moss, Cynthia J.

2011-01-01

Determining the age of individuals in a population can lead to a better understanding of population dynamics through age structure analysis and estimation of age-specific fecundity and survival rates. Shoulder height has been used to accurately assign age to free-ranging African savanna elephants. However, back length may provide an analog measurable in aerial-based surveys. We assessed the relationship between back length and age for known-age elephants in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also compared age- and sex-specific back lengths between these populations and compared adult female back lengths across 11 widely dispersed populations in five African countries. Sex-specific Von Bertalanffy growth curves provided a good fit to the back length data of known-age individuals. Based on back length, accurate ages could be assigned relatively precisely for females up to 23 years of age and males up to 17. The female back length curve allowed more precise age assignment to older females than the curve for shoulder height does, probably because of divergence between the respective growth curves. However, this did not appear to be the case for males, but the sample of known-age males was limited to ≤27 years. Age- and sex-specific back lengths were similar in Amboseli National Park and Addo Elephant National Park. Furthermore, while adult female back lengths in the three Zambian populations were generally shorter than in other populations, back lengths in the remaining eight populations did not differ significantly, in support of claims that growth patterns of African savanna elephants are similar over wide geographic regions. Thus, the growth curves presented here should allow researchers to use aerial-based surveys to assign ages to elephants with greater precision than previously possible and, therefore, to estimate population variables. PMID:22028925

Age profiles in elephant and mammoth bone assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haynes, Gary

1985-11-01

Age profiles of modern African elephant ( Loxodonta africana) populations are significantly affected by drought conditions that cause local die-offs. Subadult animals die in proportions that may be nearly twice what is recorded in live populations. Such biasing of death sample age profiles might also have occurred during late Pleistocene die-offs of Mammuthus. This comparative study of modern and fossil proboscidean age structures supports a tentative interpretation that late Pleistocene extinction of Mammuthus (at least in the southwestern United States) resulted from severe drought conditions, at which Clovis hunters were witnesses, but not necessarily frequent participants.

A population-based longitudinal study on the implications of demographics on future blood supply.

PubMed

Greinacher, Andreas; Weitmann, Kerstin; Lebsa, Anne; Alpen, Ulf; Gloger, Doris; Stangenberg, Wolfgang; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2016-12-01

Changes in demographics with increases in older age groups and decreases in younger age groups imply an increased demand for blood transfusions paralleled by a decrease in the population eligible for blood donation. However, more restrictive transfusion triggers and the patient blood management initiative also reduce the demand for red blood cells (RBCs). Eastern Germany is a model region for the impact of demographic changes, which manifest in this region approximately 10 years earlier than in other regions due to the 50% birth rate decline after 1989. We report the 2010 longitudinal 5-year follow-up of the study assessing all whole blood donations and RBC transfusions in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. We compared the projections that were made 5 years ago with: 1) the current age structure of the blood donor and transfusion recipient populations and 2) its impact on blood demand and blood donation numbers in specific age groups. Transfusion rates were lower and blood donation rates were higher than predicted in 2005. Although transfusion rates/1000 decreased in nearly all age groups, the overall annual transfusion rate increased to 66.4 RBC units/1000 (in 2005, 62.2/1000) due to the absolute increase in the elderly population. Despite a 7.4% decline in the population 18 to 65 years of age, whole blood donations increased by 11.7% between 2005 and 2010, but thereafter decreased by 21% (first-time donors by 39.4%), reflecting the effect of the post-1990 birth rate decline on the donor population. Changes in demography and medical practice impact the delicate balance between available blood supply and potential future transfusion needs. In times of pronounced demographic changes, regular monitoring of the blood demand and age structure of blood recipients and donors is required to allow strategic planning to prevent blood shortages or overproduction. © 2016 AABB.

Population genetic structure, genetic diversity, and natural history of the South American species of Nothofagus subgenus Lophozonia (Nothofagaceae) inferred from nuclear microsatellite data

PubMed Central

Vergara, Rodrigo; Gitzendanner, Matthew A; Soltis, Douglas E; Soltis, Pamela S

2014-01-01

The effect of glaciation on the levels and patterns of genetic variation has been well studied in the Northern Hemisphere. However, although glaciation has undoubtedly shaped the genetic structure of plants in the Southern Hemisphere, fewer studies have characterized the effect, and almost none of them using microsatellites. Particularly, complex patterns of genetic structure might be expected in areas such as the Andes, where both latitudinal and altitudinal glacial advance and retreat have molded modern plant communities. We therefore studied the population genetics of three closely related, hybridizing species of Nothofagus (N. obliqua, N. alpina, and N. glauca, all of subgenus Lophozonia; Nothofagaceae) from Chile. To estimate population genetic parameters and infer the influence of the last ice age on the spatial and genetic distribution of these species, we examined and analyzed genetic variability at seven polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci in 640 individuals from 40 populations covering most of the ranges of these species in Chile. Populations showed no significant inbreeding and exhibited relatively high levels of genetic diversity (HE = 0.502–0.662) and slight, but significant, genetic structure (RST = 8.7–16.0%). However, in N. obliqua, the small amount of genetic structure was spatially organized into three well-defined latitudinal groups. Our data may also suggest some introgression of N. alpina genes into N. obliqua in the northern populations. These results allowed us to reconstruct the influence of the last ice age on the genetic structure of these species, suggesting several centers of genetic diversity for N. obliqua and N. alpina, in agreement with the multiple refugia hypothesis. PMID:25360279

Canada goose nest survival at rural wetlands in north-central Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ness, Brenna N.; Klaver, Robert W.

2016-01-01

The last comprehensive nest survival study of the breeding giant Canada goose (Branta canadensis maxima) population in Iowa, USA, was conducted >30 years ago during a period of population recovery, during which available nesting habitat consisted primarily of artificial nest structures. Currently, Iowa's resident goose population is stable and nests in a variety of habitats. We analyzed the effects of available habitat on nest survival and how nest survival rates compared with those of the expanding goose population studied previously to better understand how to maintain a sustainable Canada goose population in Iowa. We documented Canada goose nest survival at rural wetland sites in north-central Iowa. We monitored 121 nests in 2013 and 149 nests in 2014 at 5 Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) with various nesting habitats, including islands, muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus) houses, and elevated nest structures. We estimated daily nest-survival rate using the nest survival model in Program MARK. Survival was influenced by year, site, stage, presence of a camera, nest age, and an interaction between nest age and stage. Nest success rates for the 28-day incubation period by site and year combination ranged from 0.10 to 0.84. Nest survival was greatest at sites with nest structures (β = 17.34). Nest survival was negatively affected by lowered water levels at Rice Lake WMA (2013 β = −0.77, nest age β = −0.07). Timing of water-level drawdowns for shallow lake restorations may influence nest survival rates.

Population waves and fertility fluctuations: social security implications.

PubMed

Boyle, P P; Freedman, R

1985-01-01

Based on Canadian data, this study discusses some of the methods which incorporate fertility variations into population forecasts. In particular, the relative shifts in the age structure which can have profound social and economic consequences on the context of a pay as you go national security system are analyzed. In terms of long range economic and social planning, oscillating growth projections are much more difficult to handle and plan for than the constant growth rates predicted by stable population theories. The impact of different types of fertility fluctuations are analyzed in terms of evolution of the dependency ration over time; the dependency ratio corresponds to the ratio of the retired lives of a population to those of the working age population. From the viewpoint of a social security system, the evolution of the dependency ratio over time is of particular importance. Other areas explored are: 1) cohort fertility variations; 2) periodic fertility fluctuations; and 3) limit cycle behaviors. In the context of a national social security plan, one possible response to the population projections would be to maintain the year by year level of the RA ratio (ratio of the population aged 65 and over to the population aged between 20 and 65) at its equilibrium value of 27.6% by adjusting the retirement age appropriately.

Relationships among walleye population characteristics and genetic diversity in northern Wisconsin Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waterhouse, Matthew D.; Sloss, Brian L.; Isermann, Daniel A.

2014-01-01

The maintenance of genetic integrity is an important goal of fisheries management, yet little is known regarding the effects of management actions (e.g., stocking, harvest regulations) on the genetic diversity of many important fish species. Furthermore, relationships between population characteristics and genetic diversity remain poorly understood. We examined relationships among population demographics (abundance, recruitment, sex ratio, and mean age of the breeding population), stocking intensity, and genetic characteristics (heterozygosity, effective number of alleles, allelic richness, Wright's inbreeding coefficient, effective population size [Ne], mean d2 [a measure of inbreeding], mean relatedness, and pairwise population ΦST estimates) for 15 populations of Walleye Sander vitreus in northern Wisconsin. We also tested for potential demographic and genetic influences on Walleye body condition and early growth. Combinations of demographic variables explained 47.1–79.8% of the variation in genetic diversity. Skewed sex ratios contributed to a reduction in Ne and subsequent increases in genetic drift and relatedness among individuals within populations; these factors were correlated to reductions in allelic richness and early growth rate. Levels of inbreeding were negatively related to both age-0 abundance and mean age, suggesting Ne was influenced by recruitment and generational overlap. A negative relationship between the effective number of alleles and body condition suggests stocking affected underlying genetic diversity of recipient populations and the overall productivity of the population. These relationships may result from poor performance of stocked fish, outbreeding depression, or density-dependent factors. An isolation-by-distance pattern of genetic diversity was apparent in nonstocked populations, but was disrupted in stocked populations, suggesting that stocking affected genetic structure. Overall, demographic factors were related to genetic diversity and stocking appeared to alter allelic frequencies and the genetic structure of Walleye populations in Wisconsin, possibly resulting in disruption of local adaptation.

Childhood Anxiety in a Diverse Primary Care Population: Parent-Child Reports, Ethnicity and SCARED Factor Structure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wren, Frances J.; Berg, Eric A.; Heiden, Lynda A.; Kinnamon, Carolyn J.; Ohlson, Lirio A.; Bridge, Jeffrey A.; Birmaher, Boris; Bernal, M. Pilar

2007-01-01

Objective: To explore in a multiethnic primary care population the impact of child gender and of race/ethnicity on parent and child reports of school-age anxiety and on the factor structure of the Screen for Childhood Anxiety and Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED). Method: A consecutive sample of 515 children (8 to less than 13 years) and their…

The Reliability and Validity of the Social Responsiveness Scale in a UK General Child Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wigham, Sarah; McConachie, Helen; Tandos, Jonathan; Le Couteur, Ann S.

2012-01-01

This is the first UK study to report the reliability, validity, and factor structure of the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) in a general population sample. Parents of 500 children (aged 5-8 years) in North East England completed the SRS. Profiles of scores were similar to USA norms, and a single factor structure was identified. Good construct…

Relationship of tooth wear to chronological age among indigenous Amazon populations.

PubMed

Vieira, Elma Pinto; Barbosa, Mayara Silva; Quintão, Cátia Cardoso Abdo; Normando, David

2015-01-01

In indigenous populations, age can be estimated based on family structure and physical examination. However, the accuracy of such methods is questionable. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to evaluate occlusal tooth wear related to estimated age in the remote indigenous populations of the Xingu River, Amazon. Two hundred and twenty three semi-isolated indigenous subjects with permanent dentition from the Arara (n = 117), Xicrin-Kayapó (n = 60) and Assurini (n = 46) villages were examined. The control group consisted of 40 non-indigenous individuals living in an urban area in the Amazon basin (Belem). A modified tooth wear index was applied and then associated with chronological age by linear regression analysis. A strong association was found between tooth wear and chronological age in the indigenous populations (p <0.001). Tooth wear measurements were able to explain 86% of the variation in the ages of the Arara sample, 70% of the Xicrin-Kaiapó sample and 65% of the Assurini sample. In the urban control sample, only 12% of ages could be determined by tooth wear. These findings suggest that tooth wear is a poor estimator of chronological age in the urban population; however, it has a strong association with age for the more remote indigenous populations. Consequently, these findings suggest that a simple tooth wear evaluation method, as described and applied in this study, can be used to provide a straightforward and efficient means to assist in age determination of newly contacted indigenous groups.

Relationship of Tooth Wear to Chronological Age among Indigenous Amazon Populations

PubMed Central

Vieira, Elma Pinto; Barbosa, Mayara Silva; Quintão, Cátia Cardoso Abdo; Normando, David

2015-01-01

In indigenous populations, age can be estimated based on family structure and physical examination. However, the accuracy of such methods is questionable. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to evaluate occlusal tooth wear related to estimated age in the remote indigenous populations of the Xingu River, Amazon. Two hundred and twenty three semi-isolated indigenous subjects with permanent dentition from the Arara (n = 117), Xicrin-Kayapó (n = 60) and Assurini (n = 46) villages were examined. The control group consisted of 40 non-indigenous individuals living in an urban area in the Amazon basin (Belem). A modified tooth wear index was applied and then associated with chronological age by linear regression analysis. A strong association was found between tooth wear and chronological age in the indigenous populations (p <0.001). Tooth wear measurements were able to explain 86% of the variation in the ages of the Arara sample, 70% of the Xicrin-Kaiapó sample and 65% of the Assurini sample. In the urban control sample, only 12% of ages could be determined by tooth wear. These findings suggest that tooth wear is a poor estimator of chronological age in the urban population; however, it has a strong association with age for the more remote indigenous populations. Consequently, these findings suggest that a simple tooth wear evaluation method, as described and applied in this study, can be used to provide a straightforward and efficient means to assist in age determination of newly contacted indigenous groups. PMID:25602501

Demographics of Aging: Implications for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Betourney, William

Through a series of four successfully field-tested activities, secondary students examine the changing age structure of the U.S. population and consider some of the implications for the future as the proportion of elders increases and the proportion of youth declines. In the first activity "Age/Sex Pyramids," students use population…

POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE OF THE MYSID, AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA, TO VARYING THIOBENCARB CONCENTRATIONS BASED ON AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATION MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

To fully understand the potential long-term ecological impacts a pollutant has on a species, population-level effects must be estimated. Since long-term field experiments are typically not feasible, vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction of individual organisms ar...

The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

Treesearch

Thomas C. Marcin

1974-01-01

Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

Altruistic aging: The evolutionary dynamics balancing longevity and evolvability.

PubMed

Herrera, Minette; Miller, Aaron; Nishimura, Joel

2017-04-01

Altruism is typically associated with traits or behaviors that benefit the population as a whole, but are costly to the individual. We propose that, when the environment is rapidly changing, senescence (age-related deterioration) can be altruistic. According to numerical simulations of an agent-based model, while long-lived individuals can outcompete their short lived peers, populations composed of long-lived individuals are more likely to go extinct during periods of rapid environmental change. Moreover, as in many situations where other cooperative behavior arises, senescence can be stabilized in a structured population.

[On some characteristics of the population development in the Shenzhen Special Economic Region].

PubMed

Zhang, Z; Yang, Q; An, H; Fang, D

1984-03-29

Shenzhen was originally a town in Guandong Province. In 1979, it was made into a Special Economic Region in order to cope with the needs of modernization. Because of rapid economic development, the population has also been growing rapidly. Before 1979, the total population of Shenzhen was only 20,000, both industry and agriculture were backward, and the living standard was low. After it was made a Special Economic Region, its population figure reached 200,000 according to a 1982 report. The age structure of the local population is young, and there are more males than females. In the last two years, because of family planning measures, the natural population growth rate has shown an obvious downward trend. The population development of Shenzhen has several characteristics: 1) the pace of population growth is very fast; 2) the educational level for the population is high, and investment in education is emphasized; 3) population mobility is strong, and it has an extensive impact on the local market, transportation, and social order; 4) the social and economic systems of Hong Kong have a special influence on its population development. Special studies and discussions concerning how to control Shenzhen's population growth, how to determine the trends toward change in age structure, and how to promote population quality and spiritual civilization should be conducted according to characteristics of the local population development.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

The development of pathogen resistance in Daphnia magna: implications for disease spread in age-structured populations.

PubMed

Garbutt, Jennie S; O'Donoghue, Anna J P; McTaggart, Seanna J; Wilson, Philip J; Little, Tom J

2014-11-01

Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host-pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen ('priming') persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

The development of pathogen resistance in Daphnia magna: implications for disease spread in age-structured populations

PubMed Central

Garbutt, Jennie S.; O'Donoghue, Anna J. P.; McTaggart, Seanna J.; Wilson, Philip J.; Little, Tom J.

2014-01-01

Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host–pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen (‘priming’) persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. PMID:25214486

Population dynamics of the sand shiner (notropis stramineus) in non-wadeable rivers of Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, C.D.; Neebling, T.E.; Quist, M.C.

2010-01-01

The sand shiner (Notropis stramineus) is a common cyprinid found throughout the Great Plains region of North America that plays an important ecological role in aquatic systems. This study was conducted to describe population dynamics of sand shiners including age structure, growth, mortality, and recruitment variability in 15 non-wadeable rivers in Iowa. Fish were collected during June-August (2007-2008) using a modified Missouri trawl, a seine, and boat-mounted electrofishing. Scales were removed for age and growth analysis. A total of 3,443 fish was sampled from 15 populations across Iowa, of which 676 were aged. Iowa's sand shiner populations consisted primarily of age-1 fish (53% of all fish sampled), followed by age-2 fish (30%), age-0 fish (15%), and age-3 fish (2%). Sand shiners grew an average of 38.5 mm (SE = 5.7) during their first year, 13.8 mm (4.5) during their second year, and 9.0 mm (6.9) during their third year. Total annual mortality varied from 35.0% to 92.3% among populations with a mean of 77.9% (0.2). Incremental mortality rates were 84.5% (0.2) between age 1 and age 2, and 92.0% (0.1) between age 2 and age 3. Recruitment was highly variable, as indicated by a mean recruitment variation index of-0.12 (0.54). Overall, the sand shiner was characterized by relatively low mean age, fast growth, high mortality, and high recruitment variability. Indices of sand shiner population dynamics were poorly correlated with habitat characteristics.

The ecology and age structure of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreak in wild mute swans.

PubMed

Pybus, O G; Perrins, C M; Choudhury, B; Manvell, R J; Nunez, A; Schulenburg, B; Sheldon, B C; Brown, I H

2012-12-01

The first UK epizootic of highly pathogenic (HP) H5N1 influenza in wild birds occurred in 2008, in a population of mute swans that had been the subject of ornithological study for decades. Here we use an innovative combination of ornithological, phylogenetic and immunological approaches to investigate the ecology and age structure of HP H5N1 in nature. We screened samples from swans and waterbirds using PCR and sequenced HP H5N1-positive samples. The outbreak's origin was investigated by linking bird count data with a molecular clock analysis of sampled virus sequences. We used ringing records to reconstruct the age-structure of outbreak mortality, and we estimated the age distribution of prior exposure to avian influenza. Outbreak mortality was low and all HP H5N1-positive mute swans in the affected population were <3 years old. Only the youngest age classes contained an appreciable number of individuals with no detectable antibody responses to viral nucleoprotein. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the outbreak strain circulated locally for ~1 month before detection and arrived when the immigration rate of migrant waterbirds was highest. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that HP H5N1 epizootics in wild swans exhibit limited mortality due to immune protection arising from previous exposure. Our study population may represent a valuable resource for investigating the natural ecology and epidemiology of avian influenza.

Population density, socioeconomic environment and all-cause mortality: a multilevel survival analysis of 2.7 million individuals in Denmark.

PubMed

Meijer, Mathias; Kejs, Anne Mette; Stock, Christiane; Bloomfield, Kim; Ejstrud, Bo; Schlattmann, Peter

2012-03-01

This study examines the relative effects of population density and area-level SES on all-cause mortality in Denmark. A shared frailty model was fitted with 2.7 million persons aged 30-81 years in 2,121 parishes. Residence in areas with high population density increased all-cause mortality for all age groups. For older age groups, residence in areas with higher proportions of unemployed persons had an additional effect. Area-level factors explained considerably more variation in mortality among the elderly than among younger generations. Overall this study suggests that structural prevention efforts in neighborhoods could help reduce mortality when mediating processes between area-level socioeconomic status, population density and mortality are found. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population characteristics of channel catfish near the northern edge of their distribution: implications for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter-Lynn, K. P.; Quist, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus (Rafinesque), populations in six lakes in northern Idaho, USA, were sampled to describe their population characteristics. During the summers of 2011 and 2012, 4864 channel catfish were sampled. Channel catfish populations had low to moderate catch rates, and length structure was dominated by fish <400 mm. Channel catfish were in good body condition. All populations were maintained by stocking age-1 or age-2 fish. Growth of fish reared in thermally enriched environments prior to stocking was fast compared to other North American channel catfish populations. After stocking, growth of channel catfish declined rapidly. Once stocked, cold water temperatures, prey resources and (or) genetic capabilities limited growth. Total annual mortality of age 2 and older channel catfish was generally <40%. Tag returns indicated that angler exploitation was low, varying from 0 to 43% among lakes. This research provides insight on factors regulating channel catfish population dynamics and highlights important considerations associated with their ecology and management.

Population structure and fruit production of Pyrus bourgaeana D. are affected by land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arenas-Castro, Salvador; Fernández-Haeger, Juan; Jordano-Barbudo, Diego

2016-11-01

The Iberian wild pear (Pyrus bourgaeana D.) is a rare, fleshy-fruited tree restricted to dehesas and evergreen sclerophyllous Mediterranean forests in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula. It produces palatable fruits and leaves attractive to different species groups, playing an important trophic role in the ecological networks of Mediterranean ecosystems. However, the intensification in the traditional land-use linked to these areas could threaten the stability of the wild pear populations in the short/medium-term. In order to determine the population dynamics of this relevant species in relation to the land-use history, we selected two populations (southern Spain) subjected to different land-use management, dehesa (D) and abandoned olive grove (AOG). An analysis of 122 adult trees reported an overall density of 0.6 trees ha-1. The tree age was estimated by tree-rings analysis in all adult trees. Dendrometric parameters, reproductive features, and germination rates were also measured. Regeneration was clearly biased, as evidenced by the truncated age structure. A low correlation (R2 = 34%) between age and DBH (diameter at breast height) (244 cores analysed) showed that diameter seems not to be a reliable predictor of tree age. Trees from AOG populations had significantly-higher values of DBH, height and crown diameter, but were less productive in terms of fruits and seeds. Nested analysis of variance showed significant variation in fruit production, fruit size, dry mass, water content and seed viability. There were also significant differences in masting. No evidence was found to demonstrate that fruit production, seed viability, or germination rate influence the low natural recruitment of this species. These findings indicate that the traditional agrosilvopastoral practices carried out in the study area for decades, and its subsequent intensification, have strongly influenced the ecological structure of the Iberian wild pear populations at the local scale, which could compromise its stability in the near future.

Theoretical life history responses of juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss to changes in food availability using a dynamic state-dependent approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romine, Jason G.; Benjamin, Joseph R.; Perry, Russell W.; Casal, Lynne; Connolly, Patrick J.; Sauter, Sally S.

2013-01-01

Marine subsidies can play an important role in the growth, survival, and migratory behavior of rearing juvenile salmonids. Availability of high-energy, marine-derived food sources during critical decision windows may influence the timing of emigration or the decision to forego emigration completely and remain in the freshwater environment. Increasing growth and growth rate during these decision windows may result in an altered juvenile population structure, which will ultimately affect the adult population age-structure. We used a state dependent model to understand how the juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss population structure may respond to increased availability of salmon eggs in their diet during critical decision windows. Our models predicted an increase in smolt production until coho salmon eggs comprised more than 50 percent of juvenile O. mykiss diet at the peak of the spawning run. At higher-than intermediate levels of egg consumption, smolt production decreased owing to increasing numbers of fish adopting a resident life-history strategy. Additionally, greater growth rates decreased the number of age-3 smolts and increased the number of age-2 smolts. Increased growth rates with higher egg consumption also decreased the age at which fish adopted the resident pathway. Our models suggest that the introduction of a high-energy food source during critical periods of the year could be sufficient to increase smolt production.

Capturing how age-friendly communities foster positive health, social participation and health equity: a study protocol of key components and processes that promote population health in aging Canadians.

PubMed

Levasseur, Mélanie; Dubois, Marie-France; Généreux, Mélissa; Menec, Verena; Raina, Parminder; Roy, Mathieu; Gabaude, Catherine; Couturier, Yves; St-Pierre, Catherine

2017-05-25

To address the challenges of the global aging population, the World Health Organization promoted age-friendly communities as a way to foster the development of active aging community initiatives. Accordingly, key components (i.e., policies, services and structures related to the communities' physical and social environments) should be designed to be age-friendly and help all aging adults to live safely, enjoy good health and stay involved in their communities. Although age-friendly communities are believed to be a promising way to help aging Canadians lead healthy and active lives, little is known about which key components best foster positive health, social participation and health equity, and their underlying mechanisms. This study aims to better understand which and how key components of age-friendly communities best foster positive health, social participation and health equity in aging Canadians. Specifically, the research objectives are to: 1) Describe and compare age-friendly key components of communities across Canada 2) Identify key components best associated with positive health, social participation and health equity of aging adults 3) Explore how these key components foster positive health, social participation and health equity METHODS: A mixed-method sequential explanatory design will be used. The quantitative part will involve a survey of Canadian communities and secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA). The survey will include an age-friendly questionnaire targeting key components in seven domains: physical environment, housing options, social environment, opportunities for participation, community supports and healthcare services, transportation options, communication and information. The CLSA is a large, national prospective study representative of the Canadian aging population designed to examine health transitions and trajectories of adults as they age. In the qualitative part, a multiple case study will be conducted in five Canadian communities performing best on positive health, social participation and health equity. Building on new and existing collaborations and generating evidence from real-world interventions, the results of this project will help communities to promote age-friendly policies, services and structures which foster positive health, social participation and health equity at a population level.

Conserving genomic variability in large mammals: Effect of population fluctuations and variance in male reproductive success on variability in Yellowstone bison

Treesearch

Andres Perez-Figueroa; Rick L. Wallen; Tiago Antao; Jason A. Coombs; Michael K. Schwartz; P. J. White; Gordon Luikart

2012-01-01

Loss of genetic variation through genetic drift can reduce population viability. However, relatively little is known about loss of variation caused by the combination of fluctuating population size and variance in reproductive success in age structured populations. We built an individual-based computer simulation model to examine how actual culling and hunting...

Recent and prospective population trends in Malaysia.

PubMed

Jones, G W; Tan, P C

1985-09-01

Recent population trends in Malaysia are reviewed, with the focus on Peninsular Malaysia. Separate consideration is given to population growth between 1970 and 1980; mortality trends; period and cohort fertility trends; factors affecting fertility, including changes in age structure, nuptiality, and other socioeconomic and demographic changes; and the recent development of a pro-natalist policy involving a goal of a population of 70 million by 2050.

It's Not How Old You Are, It's How You Are Old. State Discourse on Successful Ageing in Singapore

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooke, Mark

2016-01-01

According to Asher and Nandy, the global population of seniors will increase to 1.41 million in 2030 and is predicted to further grow to 2 billion by 2050. This will cause a fundamental change in the world's ageing structure, with the number of seniors equal to the child population (0-14 years). Today, seniors are being encouraged to be part of…

The marginal cost of public funds with an aging population.

PubMed

Wildasin, D E

1991-05-01

"As populations in the United States and other advanced economies grow older, the burden of social security and health care financing is expected to rise markedly. Payroll, income, and other taxes on working populations are projected to rise accordingly. The marginal welfare cost to workers of social security and other public expenditures is analyzed within the context of a two-period life cycle model. By relaxing separability assumptions that have become common in the literature, the theoretical structure properly incorporates the effect of these public expenditures on labor supply. Comparative statics results indicate that changing age structure is likely to raise the marginal welfare to workers of social security, education, and other public expenditures. Illustrative calculations for the United States confirm this result, suggesting that the cost to workers of incremental social security benefits may easily double by 2025-2050." excerpt

The evolution of labile traits in sex- and age-structured populations.

PubMed

Childs, Dylan Z; Sheldon, Ben C; Rees, Mark

2016-03-01

Many quantitative traits are labile (e.g. somatic growth rate, reproductive timing and investment), varying over the life cycle as a result of behavioural adaptation, developmental processes and plastic responses to the environment. At the population level, selection can alter the distribution of such traits across age classes and among generations. Despite a growing body of theoretical research exploring the evolutionary dynamics of labile traits, a data-driven framework for incorporating such traits into demographic models has not yet been developed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being used to understand the interplay between changes in labile characters, life histories and population dynamics. One limitation of the IPM approach is that it relies on phenotypic associations between parents and offspring traits to capture inheritance. However, it is well-established that many different processes may drive these associations, and currently, no clear consensus has emerged on how to model micro-evolutionary dynamics in an IPM framework. We show how to embed quantitative genetic models of inheritance of labile traits into age-structured, two-sex models that resemble standard IPMs. Commonly used statistical tools such as GLMs and their mixed model counterparts can then be used for model parameterization. We illustrate the methodology through development of a simple model of egg-laying date evolution, parameterized using data from a population of Great tits (Parus major). We demonstrate how our framework can be used to project the joint dynamics of species' traits and population density. We then develop a simple extension of the age-structured Price equation (ASPE) for two-sex populations, and apply this to examine the age-specific contributions of different processes to change in the mean phenotype and breeding value. The data-driven framework we outline here has the potential to facilitate greater insight into the nature of selection and its consequences in settings where focal traits vary over the lifetime through ontogeny, behavioural adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, as well as providing a potential bridge between theoretical and empirical studies of labile trait variation. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Investigating the effect of chemical stress and resource ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling exposure and recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating population status and remediation success. The Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Herein, we develop a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish that analyzes both size-structure and age class-structure of the population so that we could readily incorporate output from a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model currently under development. This population modeling approach emphasizes application in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) and/or laboratory analysis to link effects due to chemical stress to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. We applied the model using data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, taken from a previously published study. Specifically, the model was used to investigate population trajectories for Atlantic killifish with dietary exposures to 112, 296, and 875 pg/g of dioxin with effects on fertility and survival rates. All effects were expressed relative to control fish. Further, the population model was employed to examine age and size distributions of a population exposed to resource limitation in addition to chemical stress. For each dietary exposure concentration o

[Genetic demographic study of Shors in Tashtagolskiĭ district of the Kemerovo region: changes in the marriage migration structure].

PubMed

Ul'ianova, M V; Kucher, A N; Lavriashina, M B

2011-01-01

The changes in the marriage structure with respect to the age at marriage, ethnicity, and spouses' birthplaces during the period of time corresponding to two generations have been analyzed in the rural population of Shors of Tashtagolskii raion of Kemerovo oblast. In general, the Shor population had a high assortative marriage rate with respect to these parameters in the period studied, although there was a temporary tendency towards its decrease. The ages of marriage for both the male and the female Shor populations in the years 2000-2005 were significantly older than in 1940-1945 and 1970-1975. The age-assortative marriage rate was r = = 0.60 in 1940-1945, r = 0.73 in 1970-1975, and r = 0.66 in 2000-2005. The birthplace-assortative marriage rate decreased from 79.63% in 1970-1975 to 70.64% in 2000-2005. The ethnic assortative marriage rate of Shors steadily decreased during the time interval studied; it was 96.92, 89.95, and 80.98% in 1940-1945, 1970-1975, and 2000-2005, respectively, for the total rural population of Tashtagolskii raion.

DNA-based approach to aging martens (Martes americana and M. caurina)

Treesearch

Jonathan N. Pauli; John P. Whiteman; Bruce G. Marcot; Terry M. McClean; Merav Ben-David

2011-01-01

Demographic structure is central to understanding the dynamics of animal populations. However, determining the age of free-ranging mammals is difficult, and currently impossible when sampling with noninvasive, genetic-based approaches. We present a method to estimate age class by combining measures of telomere lengths with other biologically meaningful covariates in a...

Population Bulletin, Vol. 33, No. 3. What Will a ZPG Society Be Like?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Day, Lincoln H.

This Bulletin explores the implications of a population with essentially zero growth and an unchanging, or stationary, age-sex structure--a likely prospect for at least the approximately 26 countries, containing a quarter of the world's population, who were at or below replacement level fertility by early 1978. The only certain demographic…

Longevity of clonal plants: why it matters and how to measure it

PubMed Central

de Witte, Lucienne C.; Stöcklin, Jürg

2010-01-01

Background Species' life-history and population dynamics are strongly shaped by the longevity of individuals, but life span is one of the least accessible demographic traits, particularly in clonal plants. Continuous vegetative reproduction of genets enables persistence despite low or no sexual reproduction, affecting genet turnover rates and population stability. Therefore, the longevity of clonal plants is of considerable biological interest, but remains relatively poorly known. Scope Here, we critically review the present knowledge on the longevity of clonal plants and discuss its importance for population persistence. Direct life-span measurements such as growth-ring analysis in woody plants are relatively easy to take, although, for many clonal plants, these methods are not adequate due to the variable growth pattern of ramets and difficult genet identification. Recently, indirect methods have been introduced in which genet size and annual shoot increments are used to estimate genet age. These methods, often based on molecular techniques, allow the investigation of genet size and age structure of whole populations, a crucial issue for understanding their viability and persistence. However, indirect estimates of clonal longevity are impeded because the process of ageing in clonal plants is still poorly understood and because their size and age are not always well correlated. Alternative estimators for genet life span such as somatic mutations have recently been suggested. Conclusions Empirical knowledge on the longevity of clonal species has increased considerably in the last few years. Maximum age estimates are an indicator of population persistence, but are not sufficient to evaluate turnover rates and the ability of long-lived clonal plants to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience. In order to understand the dynamics of populations it will be necessary to measure genet size and age structure, not only life spans of single individuals, and to use such data for modelling of genet dynamics. PMID:20880935

Population ageing in Lebanon: current status, future prospects and implications for policy.

PubMed Central

Sibai, Abla Mehio; Sen, Kasturi; Baydoun, May; Saxena, Prem

2004-01-01

During the past three decades, fast declines in fertility and mortality in Lebanon have created a compressed demographic transition, a growing trend towards survival into later life, and a larger proportion of elderly people in the population. Projections show that people aged 65 years and over are expected to constitute 10.2% of the population by 2025. Nevertheless, changes to the structure and composition of the population remain unmatched by any corresponding increase in support measures either through formal channels such as pension plans or through health or socioeconomic security measures such as the provision of subsidies for health care, home help or any form of nursing care. This means that an older person is forced to be dependent upon family support if it exists. We examine demographic trends of population ageing in Lebanon between 1970 and 1995 and provide projections until 2025. Variations in population ageing within the country are also considered. We also assess health care and social policy implications of demographic changes in the context of health and economic sector reforms initiated recently by the state, and explore their impact upon the expanding population of elderly people. PMID:15112011

An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

2011-01-01

Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

Age structure and capital dilution effects in neo-classical growth models.

PubMed

Blanchet, D

1988-01-01

Economists often over estimate capital dilution effects when applying neoclassical growth models which use age structured population and depreciation of capital stock. This occurs because capital stock is improperly characterized. A standard model which assumes a constant depreciation of capital intimates that a population growth rate equal to a negative constant savings ratio is preferable to any higher growth rate. Growth rates which are lower than a negative constant savings ratio suggest an ever growing capital/labor ratio and an ever growing standard of living, even if people do not save. This is suggested because the natural reduction of the capital stock through depreciation is slower than the population decrease which is simply unrealistic. This model overlooks the fact that low or negative growth rates result in an ageing of the capital stock, and this ageing subsequently results in an increase of the overall rate of capital depreciation. In that overly simplistic model, depreciation was assumed independent of the age of the captial stock. Incorporating depreciation as a variable into a model allows a more symmetric treatment of capital. Using models with heterogenous capital, this article explores what occurs when more than 1 kind of capital good is involved in production and when these various captial goods have different lengths of life. Applying economic models, it also examines what occurs when the length of life of capital may vary. These variations correct the negative impact that population growth can have on per capital production and consumption.

Modeling and Analysis of a Nonlinear Age-Structured Model for Tumor Cell Populations with Quiescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zijian; Chen, Jing; Pang, Jianhua; Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui

2018-05-01

We present a nonlinear first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation model to describe age-structured tumor cell populations with proliferating and quiescent phases at the avascular stage in vitro. The division rate of the proliferating cells is assumed to be nonlinear due to the limitation of the nutrient and space. The model includes a proportion of newborn cells that enter directly the quiescent phase with age zero. This proportion can reflect the effect of treatment by drugs such as erlotinib. The existence and uniqueness of solutions are established. The local and global stabilities of the trivial steady state are investigated. The existence and local stability of the positive steady state are also analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the results and to examine the impacts of parameters on the nonlinear dynamics of the model.

Predisposing factors for atrial fibrillation in the elderly

PubMed Central

Wasmer, Kristina; Eckardt, Lars; Breithardt, Günter

2017-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) in the elderly occurs as a consequence of cardiovascular aging and an age related increase of comorbidity. Several predisposing factors for AF have been identified for the overall AF population. Most of them, cardiovascular disease in particular, play a role in younger and older patients. The longer time period during which these risk factors can cause structural changes that ultimately lead to AF may, at least in part, explain the association between age and AF. In addition, less well defined age-related changes in cellular electrophysiologic properties and structure predispose to AF in the elderly. PMID:28592961

Population trends in Malaysia: 1970-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Saharani Abdul; Ghani, Puzziawati Ab; Daud, Noorizam

2014-12-01

The size of population in Malaysia had reached 28.3 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 38.6 million in the next 30 years. This demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This paper looks at the last 40 years of changes in Malaysia population structure due to the changes in demographic phenomenon using data obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. The principal finding of this research indicates that population structure in Malaysia had changed dramatically from the year 1970 to 2010. At the same time, Malaysia has completed its demographic transition in less than four decades. The fall in fertility and mortality rates have led to an improvement in the life expectancy of the population which has resulted an ageing population in Malaysia.

Existence and uniqueness, attraction for stochastic age-structured population systems with diffusion and Poisson jump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huabin

2013-08-01

In this paper, the problems about the existence and uniqueness, attraction for strong solution of stochastic age-structured population systems with diffusion and Poisson jump are considered. Under the non-Lipschitz condition with the Lipschitz condition being considered as a special case, the existence and uniqueness for such systems is firstly proved by using the Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality (B-D-G inequality) and Itô's formula. And then by using a novel inequality technique, some sufficient conditions ensuring the existence for the domain of attraction are established. As another by-product, the exponential stability in mean square moment of strong solution for such systems can be also discussed.

Country Profiles, Malaysia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marzuki, Ariffin Bin; Peng, J. Y.

A profile of Malaysia is sketched in this paper. Emphasis is placed on the nature, scope, and accomplishments of population activities in the country. Topics and sub-topics include: location and description of the country; population (size, growth patterns, age structure, urban/rural distribution, ethnic and religious composition, migration,…

Country Profiles, Jamaica.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Population Council, New York, NY.

A profile of Jamaica is sketched in this paper. Emphasis is placed on the nature, scope, and accomplishments of population activities in the country. Topics and sub-topics include: location and description of the island; population - size, growth patterns, age structure, rural/urban distribution, ethnic and religious composition, literacy, future…

Country Profiles, Indonesia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Population Council, New York, NY.

A profile of Indonesia is sketched in this paper. Emphasis is placed on the nature, scope, and accomplishments of population activities in the country. Topics and sub-topics include: location and description of the country; population - size, growth patterns, age structure, urban/rural distribution, ethnic and religious composition, migration,…

Country Profiles, Taiwan.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keeny, S. M.; And Others

A profile of Taiwan is sketched in this paper. Emphasis is placed on the nature, scope, and accomplishments of population activities in the country. Topics and sub-topics include: location and description of the country; population (size, growth patterns, age structure, urban/rural distribution, ethnic and religious composition, migration,…

The Pill is Mightier Than the Sword

PubMed Central

Potts, Malcolm; Mahmood, Aafreen; Graves, Alisha A.

2015-01-01

One determinant of peace is the role of women in society. Some studies suggest that a young age structure, also known as a "youth bulge" can facilitate conflict. Population growth and age structure are factors amenable to change in a human rights context. We propose that policies which favor voluntary family planning and the education of women can ameliorate the global burden of disease associated with conflict and terrorism. PMID:26340389

[EEG correlates of geno-phenotypical features of the brain development in children of the native and newcomers' population of the Russian North-East].

PubMed

Soroko, S I; Bekshaev, S S; Rozhkov, V P

2012-01-01

Traditional and original methods of EEG analysis were used to study the brain electrical activity maturation in 156 children and adolescents from 7 to 17 years old who represented the native (Koryaks and Evenks) and newcomers' populations living in severe climatic and geographic conditions of the Russian North-East. New data revealing age-, sex- and ethnic-related features in quantitative EEG parameters are presented. Markers are obtained that characterize alterations in the structure of interaction between different EEG rhythms. The results demonstrate age-dependent transformation of this structure separated in time for both different cortical areas and different EEG frequency bands. These alterations show time lag from 2 to 3 years in children of native population compared to the newcomers. The revealed differences are assumed to reflect geno-phenotypical features of morpho-functional CNS development in children of the native and newcomers' population that depend on strong adaptation tension for extreme environmental conditions.

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

PubMed Central

Baskerville, Edward B.; Colijn, Caroline; Hanage, William; Fraser, Christophe; Lipsitch, Marc

2017-01-01

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modelled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact. PMID:28835542

A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Jason M.; Wilberg, Michael J.; Adams, Jean V.; Jones, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The control of invasive sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.

[Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

PubMed

Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

2014-09-01

Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

[VARIABILITY AND DETERMINING FACTORS OF THE BODY SIZE STRUCTURE OF THE INFRAPOPULATION OF COSMOCERCA ORNATA (NEMATODA: COSMOCERCIDAE) IN MARSH FROGS].

PubMed

Kirillov, A A; Kirillova, N Yu

2015-01-01

Variability of the body size in females of the Cosmocerca ornata (Dujardin, 1845), a parasite of marsh frogs, is studied. The influence of both biotic (age, sex and a phenotype of the host, density of the parasite population) and abiotic (a season of the year, water temperature) factors on the formation of the body size structure in the C. ornata hemipopulation (infrapopulation) is demonstrated. The body size structure of the C. ornata hemipopulation is characterized by the low level of individual variability as within certain subpopulation groups of amphibians (sex, age and phenotype), so within the population of marsh frogs as a whole. The more distinct are the differences in biology and ecology of these host subpopulations, the more pronounced is the variability in the body size of C ornata.

The role of population inertia in predicting the outcome of stage-structured biological invasions.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Dreiwi, Hanan; Filannino, Donna-Maria; Hodgson, Dave; Lloyd, Stephanie; Townley, Stuart

2015-07-01

Deterministic dynamic models for coupled resident and invader populations are considered with the purpose of finding quantities that are effective at predicting when the invasive population will become established asymptotically. A key feature of the models considered is the stage-structure, meaning that the populations are described by vectors of discrete developmental stage- or age-classes. The vector structure permits exotic transient behaviour-phenomena not encountered in scalar models. Analysis using a linear Lyapunov function demonstrates that for the class of population models considered, a large so-called population inertia is indicative of successful invasion. Population inertia is an indicator of transient growth or decline. Furthermore, for the class of models considered, we find that the so-called invasion exponent, an existing index used in models for invasion, is not always a reliable comparative indicator of successful invasion. We highlight these findings through numerical examples and a biological interpretation of why this might be the case is discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Making sense of snapshot data: ergodic principle for clonal cell populations

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Population growth is often ignored when quantifying gene expression levels across clonal cell populations. We develop a framework for obtaining the molecule number distributions in an exponentially growing cell population taking into account its age structure. In the presence of generation time variability, the average acquired across a population snapshot does not obey the average of a dividing cell over time, apparently contradicting ergodicity between single cells and the population. Instead, we show that the variation observed across snapshots with known cell age is captured by cell histories, a single-cell measure obtained from tracking an arbitrary cell of the population back to the ancestor from which it originated. The correspondence between cells of known age in a population with their histories represents an ergodic principle that provides a new interpretation of population snapshot data. We illustrate the principle using analytical solutions of stochastic gene expression models in cell populations with arbitrary generation time distributions. We further elucidate that the principle breaks down for biochemical reactions that are under selection, such as the expression of genes conveying antibiotic resistance, which gives rise to an experimental criterion with which to probe selection on gene expression fluctuations. PMID:29187636

Making sense of snapshot data: ergodic principle for clonal cell populations.

PubMed

Thomas, Philipp

2017-11-01

Population growth is often ignored when quantifying gene expression levels across clonal cell populations. We develop a framework for obtaining the molecule number distributions in an exponentially growing cell population taking into account its age structure. In the presence of generation time variability, the average acquired across a population snapshot does not obey the average of a dividing cell over time, apparently contradicting ergodicity between single cells and the population. Instead, we show that the variation observed across snapshots with known cell age is captured by cell histories, a single-cell measure obtained from tracking an arbitrary cell of the population back to the ancestor from which it originated. The correspondence between cells of known age in a population with their histories represents an ergodic principle that provides a new interpretation of population snapshot data. We illustrate the principle using analytical solutions of stochastic gene expression models in cell populations with arbitrary generation time distributions. We further elucidate that the principle breaks down for biochemical reactions that are under selection, such as the expression of genes conveying antibiotic resistance, which gives rise to an experimental criterion with which to probe selection on gene expression fluctuations. © 2017 The Author(s).

Impact of biology knowledge on the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

PubMed

Yokoi, Hiroki; Ijima, Hirotaka; Ohshimo, Seiji; Yokawa, Kotaro

2017-09-06

Population growth rate, which depends on several biological parameters, is valuable information for the conservation and management of pelagic sharks, such as blue and shortfin mako sharks. However, reported biological parameters for estimating the population growth rates of these sharks differ by sex and display large variability. To estimate the appropriate population growth rate and clarify relationships between growth rate and relevant biological parameters, we developed a two-sex age-structured matrix population model and estimated the population growth rate using combinations of biological parameters. We addressed elasticity analysis and clarified the population growth rate sensitivity. For the blue shark, the estimated median population growth rate was 0.384 with a range of minimum and maximum values of 0.195-0.533, whereas those values of the shortfin mako shark were 0.102 and 0.007-0.318, respectively. The maturity age of male sharks had the largest impact for blue sharks, whereas that of female sharks had the largest impact for shortfin mako sharks. Hypotheses for the survival process of sharks also had a large impact on the population growth rate estimation. Both shark maturity age and survival rate were based on ageing validation data, indicating the importance of validating the quality of these data for the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

Scoping the Impact of Changes in Population Age-Structure on the Future Burden of Foodborne Disease in The Netherlands, 2020–2060

PubMed Central

Bouwknegt, Martijn; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Havelaar, Arie H.

2013-01-01

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates. PMID:23851976

Scoping the impact of changes in population age-structure on the future burden of foodborne disease in the Netherlands, 2020-2060.

PubMed

Bouwknegt, Martijn; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Havelaar, Arie H

2013-07-11

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates.

Death certificate only proportions should be age adjusted in studies comparing cancer survival across populations and over time.

PubMed

Brenner, Hermann; Castro, Felipe A; Eberle, Andrea; Emrich, Katharina; Holleczek, Bernd; Katalinic, Alexander; Jansen, Lina

2016-01-01

The proportion of cases notified by death certificate only (DCO) is a commonly used data quality indicator in studies comparing cancer survival across regions and over time. We aimed to assess dependence of DCO proportions on the age structure of cancer patients. Using data from a national cancer survival study in Germany, we determined age specific and overall (crude) DCO proportions for 24 common forms of cancer. We then derived overall (crude) DCO proportions expected in case of shifts of the age distribution of the cancer populations by 5 and 10 years, respectively, assuming age specific DCO proportions to remain constant. Median DCO proportions across the 24 cancers were 2.4, 3.7, 5.5, 8.5 and 23.9% in age groups 15-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and 75+, respectively. A decrease of ages by 5 and 10 years resulted in decreases of cancer specific crude DCO proportions ranging from 0.4 to 4.8 and from 0.7 to 8.6 percent units, respectively. Conversely, an increase of ages by 5 and 10 years led to increases of cancer specific crude DCO proportions ranging from 0.8 to 4.8 and from 1.8 to 9.6 percent units, respectively. These changes were of similar magnitude (but in opposite direction) as changes in crude 5-year relative survival resulting from the same shifts in age distribution. The age structure of cancer patient populations has a substantial impact on DCO proportions. DCO proportions should therefore be age adjusted in comparative studies on cancer survival across regions and over time. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Future of the American Family [And] Prospective Trends in the Size and Structure of the Elderly Population, Impact of Mortality Trends, and Some Implications. Current Population Reports, Special Studies Series P-23, No. 78.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glick, Paul C.; Siegel, Jacob S.

The document contains two reports on consequences of population trends for families and older adults in the United States. The reports were submitted as testimony before congressional committees on population and aging. The first report discusses projected changes in American family life in light of population growth, enrollment in schools and…

Stand development and population dynamics of curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) woodlands in Utah's Bear River Mountains

Treesearch

Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long

2011-01-01

Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...

An adolescent age group approach to examining youth risk behaviors.

PubMed

Oman, Roy F; McLeroy, Kenneth R; Vesely, Sara; Aspy, Cheryl B; Smith, David W; Penn, David A

2002-01-01

To investigate relationships among youth risk behaviors and demographic factors using an adolescent age group approach. Cross-sectional data from a randomly selected population. Risk behaviors were compared within specific demographic factors and by adolescent age groups. Racially diverse, inner-city neighborhoods in two midwestern cities. Teenagers (n = 1350) and parents (n = 1350) of the teenagers. Truancy; arrested/picked up by police; weapon carrying; fighting; sexual intercourse; tobacco, alcohol, and other drug use; demographic factors; and family structure. Youth mean age was 15.4 (+/- 1.7) years and 52% were female; racial/ethnic characteristics were 47% White, 22% Black, 19% Hispanic, and 10% Native American. Parents' mean age was 42.2 (+/- 8.4) years and 81% were female. chi 2 analyses indicated numerous significant (p < .05) youth risk behavior differences within the demographic factors and that many of the differences varied by adolescent age group. For example, risk behavior differences within racial/ethnic groups were most profound in the middle and older age groups, whereas risk behavior differences within parent income, education levels, and family structure were most apparent in the younger age groups. Of the demographic factors, family structure was most frequently associated with the risk behaviors. The results generally suggest that the relationships among risk behaviors and demographic factors vary within the adolescent age groups included in this study. The results will be useful for developing age-appropriate prevention programs for youth who fit the profile for these risk behaviors. The study protocol also includes specific sampling methods that may be useful for future studies that intend to collect data from difficult-to-reach populations.

Leisure Activities as a Source of Informal Learning for Older People: The Role of Community-Based Organisations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacKean, Rowena; Abbott-Chapman, Joan

2011-01-01

The significance of findings from a qualitative Tasmanian study, which investigated the part played by informal learning in positive ageing, is highlighted by the increasing proportion of the Australian population in the "Third Age" cohort of active, independent people aged 65 years and over. Semi-structured interviews, conducted by a…

Age and gender classification of Merriam's turkeys from foot measurements

Treesearch

Mark A. Rumble; Todd R. Mills; Brian F. Wakeling; Richard W. Hoffman

1996-01-01

Wild turkey sex and age information is needed to define population structure but is difficult to obtain. We classified age and gender of Merriam’s turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) accurately based on measurements of two foot characteristics. Gender of birds was correctly classified 93% of the time from measurements of middle toe pads; correct...

Implications of an ageing population in the Asian context.

PubMed

Suyono, H

1999-12-01

Population aging is the increasing number and proportion of old persons aged 60 years and above in the developing countries and 65 years and above in the developed countries that exceeds 10% of the total population. In Asia, the last decade of the 20th century is marked by significant changes in the age structure due to the process of population aging. The implications of this aging population on the life of Asian countries has to be addressed since demographically the current situation is changing rapidly and there lie the future challenges that have to be answered. Due to the growing size of the elderly population, Asia will need better plans to prevent these elderly groups from turning into the socioeconomically vulnerable group of society. However, many governments are not prepared with effective policies, programs, and services that are particularly designed to care for the elderly. The provision of infrastructure and services, including education, employment, health and housing are necessary steps that need to be taken. Some of the suggested measures include: the Social Safety Net Programs; the implementation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plan of Action on Rural Development and Poverty Eradication; and strengthen volunteerism and the role of private sector in human development. The role of the media in transmitting information concerning policies and programs intended to increase the welfare of the older persons is also very important.

Inferring demographic structure with moccasin size data from the Promontory Caves, Utah.

PubMed

Billinger, Michael; Ives, John W

2015-01-01

The moccasin assemblage Julian Steward recovered from the Promontory caves in 1930-31 provides a novel example in which material culture can be used to understand the structure of an AD thirteenth century population. Several studies shed light on the relationship between shoe size, foot size, and stature. We develop an anthropometric model for understanding the composition of the Promontory Cave population by using moccasin size as a proxy for foot size. We then predict the stature of the individual who would have worn a moccasin. Stature is closely related to age for children, subadults and adult males. Although there are predictable sex and age factors biasing moccasin discard practices, moccasin dimensions suggest a relatively large proportion of children and subadults occupied the Promontory caves. This bison and antelope hunting population appears to have thrived during its stay on Promontory Point. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Longevity and Differential Emergence of Dengue Fever in Two Cities in Sonora, Mexico

PubMed Central

Ernst, Kacey C.; Walker, Kathleen R.; Reyes-Castro, Pablo; Joy, Teresa K.; Castro-Luque, A. Lucia; Diaz-Caravantes, Rolando E.; Gameros, Mercedes; Haenchen, Steven; Hayden, Mary H.; Monaghan, Andrew; Jeffrey-Guttierez, Eileen; Carrière, Yves; Riehle, Michael R.

2017-01-01

Dengue virus, primarily transmitted by the Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito, has rapidly expanded in geographic extent over the past several decades. In some areas, however, dengue fever has not emerged despite established Ae. aegypti populations. The reasons for this are unclear and have sometimes been attributed to socio-economic differences. In 2013 we compared Ae. aegypti adult density and population age structure between two cities in Sonora, Mexico: Hermosillo, which has regular seasonal dengue virus transmission, and Nogales, which has minimal transmission. Larval and pupal abundance was greater in Nogales, and adult density was only higher in Hermosillo during September. Population age structure, however, was consistently older in Hermosillo. This difference in longevity may have been one factor that limited dengue virus transmission in Nogales in 2013, as a smaller proportion of Ae. aegypti females survived past the extrinsic incubation period. PMID:28082648

Social Gerontology Training Manual.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tucker, Jeanne C., Ed.; Umbarger, Vivian C., Ed.

This guide for educators, human service workers, and others interested in social gerontology contains four sections covering fifteen subject areas/sessions. Unit 1, Societal Structure and Its Relationship to the Aged, presents data concerning demographics of the aging population, historical factors having an impact upon value processing of older…

Epigenetic Contributions to Cognitive Aging: Disentangling Mindspan and Lifespan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spiegel, Amy M.; Sewal, Angila S.; Rapp, Peter R.

2014-01-01

Epigenetic modifications of chromatin structure provide a mechanistic interface for gene-environment interactions that impact the individualization of health trajectories across the lifespan. A growing body of research indicates that dysfunctional epigenetic regulation contributes to poor cognitive outcomes among aged populations. Here we review…

Measuring the Economic Impact of a State's Tax Structure on an Elderly Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bell, William G.; And Others

1987-01-01

Developed new methodology for estimating economic impact of state and local taxation on different age groups and applied methodology to taxpayers, classified by age, in Florida. Found that older households experienced same tax burden as did younger households. (Author/NB)

Genetic consequences of polygyny and social structure in an Indian fruit bat, Cynopterus sphinx. II. Variance in male mating success and effective population size.

PubMed

Storz, J F; Bhat, H R; Kunz, T H

2001-06-01

Variance in reproductive success is a primary determinant of genetically effective population size (Ne), and thus has important implications for the role of genetic drift in the evolutionary dynamics of animal taxa characterized by polygynous mating systems. Here we report the results of a study designed to test the hypothesis that polygynous mating results in significantly reduced Ne in an age-structured population. This hypothesis was tested in a natural population of a harem-forming fruit bat, Cynopterus sphinx (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae), in western India. The influence of the mating system on the ratio of variance Ne to adult census number (N) was assessed using a mathematical model designed for age-structured populations that incorporated demographic and genetic data. Male mating success was assessed by means of direct and indirect paternity analysis using 10-locus microsatellite genotypes of adults and progeny from two consecutive breeding periods (n = 431 individually marked bats). Combined results from both analyses were used to infer the effective number of male parents in each breeding period. The relative proportion of successfully reproducing males and the size distribution of paternal sibships comprising each offspring cohort revealed an extremely high within-season variance in male mating success (up to 9.2 times higher than Poisson expectation). The resultant estimate of Ne/N for the C. sphinx study population was 0.42. As a result of polygynous mating, the predicted rate of drift (1/2Ne per generation) was 17.6% higher than expected from a Poisson distribution of male mating success. However, the estimated Ne/N was well within the 0.25-0.75 range expected for age-structured populations under normal demographic conditions. The life-history schedule of C. sphinx is characterized by a disproportionately short sexual maturation period scaled to adult life span. Consequently, the influence of polygynous mating on Ne/N is mitigated by the extensive overlap of generations. In C. sphinx, turnover of breeding males between seasons ensures a broader sampling of the adult male gamete pool than expected from the variance in mating success within a single breeding period.

Analysis of an age structured model for tick populations subject to seasonal effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kaihui; Lou, Yijun; Wu, Jianhong

2017-08-01

We investigate an age-structured hyperbolic equation model by allowing the birth and death functions to be density dependent and periodic in time with the consideration of seasonal effects. By studying the integral form solution of this general hyperbolic equation obtained through the method of integration along characteristics, we give a detailed proof of the uniqueness and existence of the solution in light of the contraction mapping theorem. With additional biologically natural assumptions, using the tick population growth as a motivating example, we derive an age-structured model with time-dependent periodic maturation delays, which is quite different from the existing population models with time-independent maturation delays. For this periodic differential system with seasonal delays, the basic reproduction number R0 is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator. Then, we show the tick population tends to die out when R0 < 1 while remains persistent if R0 > 1. When there is no intra-specific competition among immature individuals due to the sufficient availability of immature tick hosts, the global stability of the positive periodic state for the whole model system of four delay differential equations can be obtained with the observation that a scalar subsystem for the adult stage size can be decoupled. The challenge for the proof of such a global stability result can be overcome by introducing a new phase space, based on which, a periodic solution semiflow can be defined which is eventually strongly monotone and strictly subhomogeneous.

A prediction of the trend of population development in urban and rural areas in China.

PubMed

Hu, Y

1998-01-01

This study predicts trends in population growth, urbanization, and age structure in China. Data were obtained from the 1990 Census. Population totaled 1.22 billion at the end of 1996. The fertility model predicts future fertility by variant and parity; parameters are provided in a table. High, medium, and low fertility variants, respectively, are based on the total regressive fertility rates (TRFR) of 2.23, 1.9, and 1.6. The medium variant assumes 2 children in rural areas. The low variant is ideal and assumes no third parity in rural areas. Urbanization means an annual average increase of 0.5% after 1996 at pace I and 0.8% at pace II. Urban population will be 57.8% of total population by 2050. Under these three variants, population size in 2000 will be 898 million in rural and 403 million in urban areas, 869 million in rural and 400 million in urban areas, and 856 million in rural and 398 million in urban areas, respectively. Population will peak at 1.7 billion in 2050, at 1.48 billion in 2033, and at 1.38 billion in 2023, respectively. During the period 2000-2020, about 10-14 million rural migrants will move to urban areas; 10 million will move thereafter. The elderly aged over 60 years will reach 7% by 2000 and 20% by 2040. Rural population will age faster than urban population. The working age population will reach 775 million in 2000, peak at 868 million in 2016, and will always be over 60% of total population. School-age population will amount to over 300 million by 2030. Young population will always be more than 25% in rural areas, which is nearly 17 percentage points higher than in urban areas.

The global status of freshwater fish age validation studies and a prioritization framework for future research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Kevin L.; Hamel, Martin J.; Pegg, Mark A.; Spurgeon, Jonathan J.

2016-01-01

Age information derived from calcified structures is commonly used to estimate recruitment, growth, and mortality for fish populations. Validation of daily or annual marks on age structures is often assumed, presumably due to a lack of general knowledge concerning the status of age validation studies. Therefore, the current status of freshwater fish age validation studies was summarized to show where additional effort is needed, and increase the accessibility of validation studies to researchers. In total, 1351 original peer-reviewed articles were reviewed from freshwater systems that studied age in fish. Periodicity and age validation studies were found for 88 freshwater species comprising 21 fish families. The number of age validation studies has increased over the last 30 years following previous calls for more research; however, few species have validated structures spanning all life stages. In addition, few fishes of conservation concern have validated ageing structures. A prioritization framework, using a combination of eight characteristics, is offered to direct future age validation studies and close the validation information gap. Additional study, using the offered prioritization framework, and increased availability of published studies that incorporate uncertainty when presenting research results dealing with age information are needed.

Growth patterns of an intertidal gastropod as revealed by oxygen isotope analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, J. R.; Hill, T. M.; Guerra, C.

2007-12-01

The size and morphology of mollusk shells are affected by environmental conditions. As a result, it is difficult to assess growth rate, population age structure, shell morphologies associated with ontogenetic stages, and to compare life history patterns across various environments. Oxygen isotope analysis is a useful tool for estimating minimum ages and growth rates of calcium carbonate secreting organisms. Calcite shell material from members of two northern California populations of the intertidal muricid gastropod Acanthinucella spirata was sampled for isotopic analysis. Individual shells were sampled from apex to margin, thus providing a sequential record of juvenile and adult growth. A. spirata were collected from a sheltered habitat in Tomales Bay and from an exposed reef in Bolinas. Abiotic factors, such as temperature, wave exposure, and substrate consistency, and biotic composition differ significantly between these sites, possibly resulting in local adaptations and variation in life history and growth patterns. Shell morphology of A. spirata changes with age as internal shell margin thickenings of denticle rows associated with external growth bands are irregularly accreted. It is not known when, either seasonally and/or ontogentically, these thickenings and bands form or whether inter or intra-populational variation exists. Preliminary results demonstrate the seasonal oxygen isotopic variability present at the two coastal sites, indicating 5-6 degC changes from winter to summertime temperatures; these data are consistent with local intertidal temperature records. Analysis of the seasonal patterns indicate that: 1) differences in growth rate and seasonal growth patterns at different ontogenetic stages within populations, and 2) differences in growth patterns and possibly age structure between the two A. spirata populations. These findings indicate that isotopic analyses, in addition to field observations and morphological measurements, are necessary to assess life history strategies and compare population dynamics under varying environmental conditions.

An Experimental Approach to Mathematical Modeling in Biology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ledder, Glenn

2008-01-01

The simplest age-structured population models update a population vector via multiplication by a matrix. These linear models offer an opportunity to introduce mathematical modeling to students of limited mathematical sophistication and background. We begin with a detailed discussion of mathematical modeling, particularly in a biological context.…

Shape-related characteristics of age-related differences in subcortical structures.

PubMed

Madan, Christopher R

2018-01-11

With an increasing aging population, it is important to understand biological markers of aging. Subcortical volume is known to differ with age; additionally considering shape-related characteristics may provide a better index of age-related differences. Fractal dimensionality is more sensitive to age-related differences, but is borne out of mathematical principles, rather than neurobiological relevance. We considered four distinct measures of shape and how they relate to aging and fractal dimensionality: surface-to-volume ratio, sphericity, long-axis curvature, and surface texture. Structural MRIs from a combined sample of over 600 healthy adults were used to measure age-related differences in the structure of the thalamus, putamen, caudate, and hippocampus. For each, volume and fractal dimensionality were calculated, as well as four distinct shape measures. These measures were examined for their utility in explaining age-related variability in brain structure. The four shape measures were able to account for 80%-90% of the variance in fractal dimensionality. Of the distinct shape measures, surface-to-volume ratio was the most sensitive biomarker. Though volume is often used to characterize inter-individual differences in subcortical structures, our results demonstrate that additional measures can be useful complements. Our results indicate that shape characteristics are useful biological markers of aging.

Age of diagnosis of breast cancer in china: almost 10 years earlier than in the United States and the European union.

PubMed

Song, Qing-Kun; Li, Jing; Huang, Rong; Fan, Jin-Hu; Zheng, Rong-Shou; Zhang, Bao-Ning; Zhang, Bin; Tang, Zhong-Hua; Xie, Xiao-Ming; Yang, Hong-Jian; He, Jian-Jun; Li, Hui; Li, Jia-Yuan; Qiao, You-Lin; Chen, Wan-Qing

2014-01-01

The study aimed to describe the age distribution of breast cancer diagnosis among Chinese females for comparison with the United States and the European Union, and provide evidence for the screening target population in China. Median age was estimated from hospital databases from 7 tertiary hospitals in China. Population-based data in China, United States and European Union was extracted from the National Central Cancer Registry, SEER program and GLOBOCAN 2008, respectively. Age-standardized distribution of breast cancer at diagnosis in the 3 areas was estimated based on the World Standard Population 2000. The median age of breast cancer at diagnosis was around 50 in China, nearly 10 years earlier than United States and European Union. The diagnosis age in China did not vary between subgroups of calendar year, region and pathological characteristics. With adjustment for population structure, median age of breast cancer at diagnosis was 50~54 in China, but 55~59 in United States and European Union. The median diagnosis age of female breast cancer is much earlier in China than in the United States and the European Union pointing to racial differences in genetics and lifestyle. Screening programs should start at an earlier age for Chinese women and age disparities between Chinese and Western women warrant further studies.

The Evolution of Globular Cluster Systems In Early-Type Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grillmair, Carl

1999-07-01

We will measure structural parameters {core radii and concentrations} of globular clusters in three early-type galaxies using deep, four-point dithered observations. We have chosen globular cluster systems which have young, medium-age and old cluster populations, as indicated by cluster colors and luminosities. Our primary goal is to test the hypothesis that globular cluster luminosity functions evolve towards a ``universal'' form. Previous observations have shown that young cluster systems have exponential luminosity functions rather than the characteristic log-normal luminosity function of old cluster systems. We will test to see whether such young system exhibits a wider range of structural parameters than an old systems, and whether and at what rate plausible disruption mechanisms will cause the luminosity function to evolve towards a log-normal form. A simple observational comparison of structural parameters between different age cluster populations and between diff er ent sub-populations within the same galaxy will also provide clues concerning both the formation and destruction mechanisms of star clusters, the distinction between open and globular clusters, and the advisability of using globular cluster luminosity functions as distance indicators.

Demographic trends and public health in Europe.

PubMed

England, Kathleen; Azzopardi-Muscat, Natasha

2017-10-01

Demographic trends in Europe are currently being shaped by an ageing population, falling fertility rates and diverse migration flows. Fertility rates are lowest in Eastern and Southern Europe with Eastern Europe also experiencing the lowest net migration and an exodus of its working population. All regions in Europe are experiencing aging of their population with some countries having the added burden of high rates of unemployment among the working age population. The impact of these demographic changes on the current and future public health of the country depends on how countries have been preparing and adapting to demographic changes over the past years. Changes in age structure and ethnic composition will put further strain on health care and welfare systems and requires careful planning. A multi-faceted approach which goes beyond the health care system is required and countries need to look beyond their borders in search as to how countries are tackling these important issues. As Europe ages the concept of healthy aging should become an increasing priority focus for European Public Health. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Helminths community of veterinary importance of livestock in relation to some ecological and biological factors.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Mohamed M; Ghamdi, Manea; Gahmdi, Mesfer

2008-01-01

The goals of this study were: (I) to report the helminth population in cattle, sheep and goats; (II) to determine the concentration and diversity of the population; and (III) to study the role of host age, host sex, diet and season in structuring the population. A total of 485 cattle, 1144 sheep and 989 goats were examined for helminth population for four seasons. The helminth population consisted of nine species, four trematodes, four cestodes and one nematode. The overall infection prevalence in cattle, sheep and goats was 12.92%, 18.63% and 13.45%, respectively. Echinococcus granulosus was the most prevalent parasite. The overall mean species concentration per host was 1.23, 0.95 and 0.53 in cattle, sheep and goats, respectively. Species concentration, prevalence and mean abundance varied significantly in relation to host age, sex, diet and season. In conclusion, the influence of the factors investigated on structuring the helminth population of livestock, varied from species to another. We cannot say if the low species concentration and the recorded infection rates observed in the present study are typical of the host species or if they are due to characteristics of the study area, since there is no data available for other host populations.

Demographic patterns of Ferocactus cylindraceus in relation to substrate age and grazing history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

1997-01-01

Three subpopulations of Ferocactus cylindraceus, a short-columnar cactus of the Sonoran and Mojave deserts, were sampled in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA, at sites representing a range of substrate ages and different grazing histories. Age-height relations were determined from annual growth, then used to estimate probable year of establishment for each cohort. Eight years between 1944 and 1992 were especially favorable for establishment. Six of these 8 years coincided with El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, indicating that as for many woody plants in arid regions, somewhat unusual climatic conditions are necessary if populations are to replace themselves. Comparison of age structures showed that established and developing populations have somewhat different dynamics in that the rate of population increase was slowest on the youngest terrace. On the ancient terraces, about half the plants were less than 25 years old. Plants older than 40 years were few; however the oldest plants in the study (about 49 years) grew on the ancient terraces. On the recent terrace, 76% of the subpopulation was 25 years or younger, and the oldest living plant was about 36 years of age. The age structures of subpopulations on grazed and ungrazed sites also differed markedly. On ungrazed sites, subpopulations were more or less at equilibrium, with enough young plants to replace old ones as they died. In contrast, the subpopulation on the grazed site was in a state of marked disequilibrium. Grazing before 1981 largely extirpated a palatable subshrub that was probably an important nurse plant. Until the shrub population at Indian Canyon recovers from decades of burro grazing, a rebound in E cylindraceus establishment is not to be expected.

Historical fire and multidecadal drought as context for piñon - Juniper woodland restoration in western Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinneman, Douglas J.; Baker, William L.

2009-01-01

Fire is known to structure tree populations, but the role of broad-scale climate variability is less clear. For example, the influence of climatic “teleconnections” (the relationship between oceanic–atmospheric fluctuations and anomalous weather patterns across broad scales) on forest age structure is relatively unexplored. We sampled semiarid piñon–juniper (Pinus edulis–Juniperus osteosperma) woodlands in western Colorado, USA, to test the hypothesis that woodland age structures are shaped by climate, including links to oceanic–atmospheric fluctuations, and by past fires and livestock grazing. Low-severity surface fire was lacking, as fire scars were absent, and did not influence woodland densities, but stand-replacing fires served as long-rotation (>400–600 years), stand-initiating events. Old-growth stands (>300 years old) were found in 75% of plots, consistent with a long fire rotation. Juniper and piñon age structures suggest contrasting responses during the past several centuries to dry and wet episodes linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Juniper density increased slightly during periods of drought, positive (warm) AMO (after ∼10-year lag), and negative (cool) PDO. In contrast, piñon populations may still be recovering from a long, drought-filled period (AD 1620–1820), with pulses of recovery favored during cool AMO, warm PDO, and above-average moisture periods. Analysis of 20th-century tree establishment and instrumental climate data corroborate the long-term relationships between age structure and climate. After Euro–American settlement (AD 1881), livestock grazing reduced understory grasses and forbs, reducing competition with tree seedlings and facilitating climate-induced increases in piñons. Thus tree populations in these woodlands are in flux, affected by drought and wet periods linked to oceanic–atmospheric variability, Euro–American livestock grazing, and long-rotation, high-severity fires. Reductions in livestock grazing levels may aid ecological restoration efforts. However, given long-term fluctuations in tree density and composition, and expected further drought, thinning or burning to reduce tree populations may be misdirected.

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

Cooperation and age structure in spatial games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Wang, Zhen; Zhu, Xiaodan; Arenzon, Jeferson J.

2012-01-01

We study the evolution of cooperation in evolutionary spatial games when the payoff correlates with the increasing age of players (the level of correlation is set through a single parameter, α). The demographic heterogeneous age distribution, directly affecting the outcome of the game, is thus shown to be responsible for enhancing the cooperative behavior in the population. In particular, moderate values of α allow cooperators not only to survive but to outcompete defectors, even when the temptation to defect is large and the ageless, standard α=0 model does not sustain cooperation. The interplay between age structure and noise is also considered, and we obtain the conditions for optimal levels of cooperation.

Is Low Fertility Really a Problem? Population Aging, Dependency, and Consumption*

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. While low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living PMID:25301626

[Population structure of soil arthropod in different age Pinus massoniana plantations].

PubMed

Tan, Bo; Wu, Fu-zhong; Yang, Wan-qin; Zhang, Jian; Xu, Zhen-feng; Liu, Yang; Gou, Xiao-lin

2013-04-01

An investigation was conducted on the population structure of soil arthropod community in the 3-, 8-, 14-, 31-, and 40-years old Pinus massoniana plantations in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in spring (May) and autumn (October), 2011, aimed to search for the scientific management of the plantation. A total of 4045 soil arthropods were collected, belonging to 57 families. Both the individual density and the taxonomic group number of the soil arthropod community decreased obviously with increasing soil depth, and this trend increased with increasing stand age. The dominant groups and ordinary groups of the soil arthropod community varied greatly with the stand age of P. massoniana plantation, and a significant difference (P<0.05) was observed in the individual density and taxonomic group number among different age P. massoniana plantations. In comparison with other stand age P. massoniana plantations, 3years old P. massoniana plantation had a significant difference in the structure and diversity of soil arthropod community, and the similarity index of the soil arthropod community was lower. The individual density, taxonomic group number, and diversity of soil arthropod community were the highest in 8-years old P. massoniana plantation, and then, decreased obviously with increasing stand age. It was suggested that the land fertility of the P. massoniana plantations could be degraded with increasing stand age, and it would be appropriate to make artificial regulation and restoration in 8-years old P. massoniana plantation.

[Is Work in Older Age Healthy? Findings from Family Run Businesses Using the Example of Bavarian Rural Economics].

PubMed

Hetzel, C; Holzer, M; Allinger, F; Watzele, R; Hörmann, G; Weber, A

2016-05-01

Working in second half of life is individually and socially important. The aim of this study is to multidimensionally evaluate the subjective health situation of older people, in particular those beyond the legal age of retirement who are working or assisting in family run businesses, using the example of Bavarian rural economics. A 3 stage random sample stratified proportionally to regional population numbers was selected for a cross-sectional questionnaire survey (personal delivery, postal return n=3 176, 39.1%). Sample results can be generalised (men 59.8%, at least 65 years old 60.8%, smallest/small enterprises 61.8%). Life satisfaction is similar to that of the German age cohort population. In comparison to commercial and technical fields, physic and psychological complaints are lower and work pleasure is much higher. Health indicators are not dependent on enterprise structures, but on age and gender - on age partly non-linearly. Our results indicate that working in older age can be a source of subjective health. Process of family business succession may effect health. RESULTS might be applicable to other structurally similar agriculture regions and to craft sector. They promote individual confrontation with and social debate on a positive image of old age and aging. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Renal Aging: Causes and Consequences

PubMed Central

Hughes, Jeremy; Ferenbach, David A.

2017-01-01

Individuals age >65 years old are the fastest expanding population demographic throughout the developed world. Consequently, more aged patients than before are receiving diagnoses of impaired renal function and nephrosclerosis—age–associated histologic changes in the kidneys. Recent studies have shown that the aged kidney undergoes a range of structural changes and has altered transcriptomic, hemodynamic, and physiologic behavior at rest and in response to renal insults. These changes impair the ability of the kidney to withstand and recover from injury, contributing to the high susceptibility of the aged population to AKI and their increased propensity to develop subsequent progressive CKD. In this review, we examine these features of the aged kidney and explore the various validated and putative pathways contributing to the changes observed with aging in both experimental animal models and humans. We also discuss the potential for additional study to increase understanding of the aged kidney and lead to novel therapeutic strategies. PMID:28143966

[The economically active population in Verviers during the industrial revolution. Part 1. Inactivity and underemployment].

PubMed

Desama, C

1979-01-01

The industrial revolution during the 1st 1/2 of the 19th century in Wallonia had important social and demographic repercussions which are still being felt today. The author examines and compares the demographic structures of the working population of the city of Verviers in 1806 and 1846. 1/4 of the adult population was not working at that time. Married women constitute a manpower reserve which is drawn upon in line with the general line of activity; the more than proportional overall offer of employment with respect to demand is a cause for inactivity which is as restraining as the education of children or social pressures may be which force these women to perform household work. Underemployment is linked to age, affecting the youngest among potential workers; it is high between ages 12-19, decreases until age 30 and then becomes negligible, and increases again by age 65 in 1806 or age 70 in 1846. Underemployment is also linked to sex since it affects women, although less than inactivity does. Finally, it affects bachelors; the evident relation in 1806 becomes almost exclusive in 1846 when 90% of underemployed individuals were bachelors. The increase in the rate of underemployment between 1806-1846 is the result of the volume of immigration and its structure which brought about disequilibrium between supply and demand. (author's)

Aging Differences in Ethnic Skin

PubMed Central

Buainain De Castro Maymone, Mayra; Kundu, Roopal V.

2016-01-01

Aging is an inevitable and complex process that can be described clinically as features of wrinkles, sunspots, uneven skin color, and sagging skin. These cutaneous effects are influenced by both intrinsic and extrinsic factors and often are varied based on ethnic origin given underlying structural and functional differences. The authors sought to provide updated information on facets of aging and how it relates to ethnic variation given innate differences in skin structure and function. Publications describing structural and functional principles of ethnic and aging skin were primarily found through a PubMed literature search and supplemented with a review of textbook chapters. The most common signs of skin aging despite skin type are dark spots, loss of elasticity, loss of volume, and rhytides. Skin of color has many characteristics that make its aging process unique. Those of Asian, Hispanic, and African American descent have distinct facial structures. Differences in the concentration of epidermal melanin makes darkly pigmented persons more vulnerable to dyspigmentation, while a thicker and more compact dermis makes facial lines less noticeable. Ethnic skin comprises a large portion of the world population. Therefore, it is important to understand the unique structural and functional differences among ethnicities to adequately treat the signs of aging. PMID:26962390

Mitochondrial phylogeography of moose (Alces alces): Late Pleistocene divergence and population expansion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hundertmark, Kris J.; Shields, Gerald F.; Udina, Irina G.; Bowyer, R. Terry; Danilkin, Alexei A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

2002-01-01

We examined phylogeographic relationships of moose (Alces alces) worldwide to test the proposed existence of two geographic races and to infer the timing and extent of demographic processes underpinning the expansion of this species across the Northern Hemisphere in the late Pleistocene. Sequence variation within the left hypervariable domain of the control region occurred at low or moderate levels worldwide and was structured geographically. Partitioning of genetic variance among regions indicated that isolation by distance was the primary agent for differentiation of moose populations but does not support the existence of distinct eastern and western races. Levels of genetic variation and structure of phylogenetic trees identify Asia as the origin of all extant mitochondrial lineages. A recent coalescence is indicated, with the most recent common ancestor dating to the last ice age. Moose have undergone two episodes of population expansion, likely corresponding to the final interstade of the most recent ice age and the onset of the current interglacial. Timing of expansion for the population in the Yakutia–Manchuria region of eastern Asia indicates that it is one of the oldest populations of moose and may represent the source of founders of extant populations in North America, which were colonized within the last 15,000 years. Our data suggest an extended period of low population size or a severe bottleneck prior to the divergence and expansion of extant lineages and a recent, less-severe bottleneck among European lineages. Climate change during the last ice age, acting through contraction and expansion of moose habitat and the flooding of the Bering land bridge, undoubtedly was a key factor influencing the divergence and expansion of moose populations.

Replacing the projected retiring baby boomer nursing cohort 2001 – 2026

PubMed Central

Schofield, Deborah J

2007-01-01

Background The nursing population in Australia is ageing. However, there is little information on the rate and timing of nursing retirement. Methods Specifically designed health workforce extracts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) censuses from 1986 to 2001 are used to estimate the rate of nursing retirement. The 2001 nursing data are then "aged" and retirement of the nursing workforce projected through to 2026. ABS population projections are used to examine the future age structure of the population and the growth and age distribution of the pool of labour from which future nurses will be drawn. Results Attrition rates for nurses aged 45 and over are projected to be significantly higher between the base year of 2006 and 2026, than they were between 1986 and 2001 (p < 0.001). Between 2006 and 2026 the growth in the labour force aged 20 to 64 is projected to slow from 7.5 per cent every five years to about 2 per cent, and over half of that growth will be in the 50 to 64 year age group. Over this period Australia is projected to lose almost 60 per cent of the current nursing workforce to retirement, an average of 14 per cent of the nursing workforce every five years and a total of about 90,000 nurses. Conclusion The next 20 years will see a large number of nursing vacancies due to retirement, with ageing already impacting on the structure of the nursing workforce. Retirement income policies are likely to be a key driver in the retirement rate of nurses, with some recent changes in Australia having some potential to slow retirement of nurses before the age of 60 years. However, if current trends continue, Australia can expect to have substantially fewer nurses than it needs in 2026. PMID:17572906

Infrared absorption characteristics of Culicoides sonorensis in relation to insect age

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biting midges can transmit diseases that significantly impact livestock in many parts of the world. The age structure of an insect vector population determines its likelihood of transmitting pathogens because the older insects are more likely to be infected than younger ones. Understanding the insec...

Old moms with new tricks: modeling the effects of age-specific spawning behaviors in Pacific Ocean perch

EPA Science Inventory

In commercially exploited, long-lived fish species, age structure plays an important role in determining population stability and resilience to human and environmental impacts. The often observed increase in energy allocation per offspring by older females can improve larval surv...

Ring-Mold Craters on Lineated Valley Fill, Lobate Debris Aprons, and Concentric Crater Fill on Mars: Implications for Near-Surface Structure, Composition, and Age.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kress, A.; Head, J. W.

2009-03-01

Analysis of ring-mold crater populations on lineated valley fill, lobate debris aprons, and concentric crater fill on Mars and of ice-impact experiments suggest crater-count-derived ages may be erroneously old.

Conservation genetics of managed ungulate populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.

1993-01-01

Natural populations of many species are increasingly impacted by human activities. Perturbations are particularly pronunced for large ungulates due in part to sport and commercial harvest, to reductions and fragmentation of native habitat, and as the result of reintroductions. These perturbations affect population size, sex and age composition, and population breeding structure, and as a consequence affect the levels and partitioning of genetic variation. Three case histories highlighting long-term ecological genetic research on mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817), white-tailed deer O. virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), and Alpine ibex Capra i. ibex Linnaeus, 1758 are presented. Joint examinations of population ecological and genetic data from several populations of each species reveal: (1) that populations are not in genetic equilibrium, but that allele frequencies and heterozygosity change dramatically over time and among cohorts produced in successive years, (2) populations are genetically structured over short and large geographic distances reflecting local breeding structure and patterns of gene flow, respectively; however, this structure is quite dynamic over time, due in part to population exploitation, and (3) restocking programs are often undertaken with small numbers of founding individuals resulting in dramatic declines in levels of genetic variability and increasing levels of genetic differentiation among populations due to genetic drift. Genetic characteristics have and will continue to provide valuable indirect sources of information relating enviromental and human perturbations to changes in population processes.

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth.

PubMed

de la Cruz, Roberto; Guerrero, Pilar; Calvo, Juan; Alarcón, Tomás

2017-12-01

The development of hybrid methodologies is of current interest in both multi-scale modelling and stochastic reaction-diffusion systems regarding their applications to biology. We formulate a hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends the remit of existing hybrid methods for reaction-diffusion systems. Such method is developed for a stochastic multi-scale model of tumour growth, i.e. population-dynamical models which account for the effects of intrinsic noise affecting both the number of cells and the intracellular dynamics. In order to formulate this method, we develop a coarse-grained approximation for both the full stochastic model and its mean-field limit. Such approximation involves averaging out the age-structure (which accounts for the multi-scale nature of the model) by assuming that the age distribution of the population settles onto equilibrium very fast. We then couple the coarse-grained mean-field model to the full stochastic multi-scale model. By doing so, within the mean-field region, we are neglecting noise in both cell numbers (population) and their birth rates (structure). This implies that, in addition to the issues that arise in stochastic-reaction diffusion systems, we need to account for the age-structure of the population when attempting to couple both descriptions. We exploit our coarse-graining model so that, within the mean-field region, the age-distribution is in equilibrium and we know its explicit form. This allows us to couple both domains consistently, as upon transference of cells from the mean-field to the stochastic region, we sample the equilibrium age distribution. Furthermore, our method allows us to investigate the effects of intracellular noise, i.e. fluctuations of the birth rate, on collective properties such as travelling wave velocity. We show that the combination of population and birth-rate noise gives rise to large fluctuations of the birth rate in the region at the leading edge of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth.

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Cruz, Roberto; Guerrero, Pilar; Calvo, Juan; Alarcón, Tomás

2017-12-01

The development of hybrid methodologies is of current interest in both multi-scale modelling and stochastic reaction-diffusion systems regarding their applications to biology. We formulate a hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends the remit of existing hybrid methods for reaction-diffusion systems. Such method is developed for a stochastic multi-scale model of tumour growth, i.e. population-dynamical models which account for the effects of intrinsic noise affecting both the number of cells and the intracellular dynamics. In order to formulate this method, we develop a coarse-grained approximation for both the full stochastic model and its mean-field limit. Such approximation involves averaging out the age-structure (which accounts for the multi-scale nature of the model) by assuming that the age distribution of the population settles onto equilibrium very fast. We then couple the coarse-grained mean-field model to the full stochastic multi-scale model. By doing so, within the mean-field region, we are neglecting noise in both cell numbers (population) and their birth rates (structure). This implies that, in addition to the issues that arise in stochastic-reaction diffusion systems, we need to account for the age-structure of the population when attempting to couple both descriptions. We exploit our coarse-graining model so that, within the mean-field region, the age-distribution is in equilibrium and we know its explicit form. This allows us to couple both domains consistently, as upon transference of cells from the mean-field to the stochastic region, we sample the equilibrium age distribution. Furthermore, our method allows us to investigate the effects of intracellular noise, i.e. fluctuations of the birth rate, on collective properties such as travelling wave velocity. We show that the combination of population and birth-rate noise gives rise to large fluctuations of the birth rate in the region at the leading edge of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth.

Risk factor studies of age-at-onset in a sample ascertained for Parkinson disease affected sibling pairs: a cautionary tale

PubMed Central

Wilk, Jemma B; Lash, Timothy L

2007-01-01

An association between exposure to a risk factor and age-at-onset of disease may reflect an effect on the rate of disease occurrence or an acceleration of the disease process. The difference in age-at-onset arising from case-only studies, however, may also reflect secular trends in the prevalence of exposure to the risk factor. Comparisons of age-at-onset associated with risk factors are commonly performed in case series enrolled for genetic linkage analysis of late onset diseases. We describe how the results of age-at-onset studies of environmental risk factors reflect the underlying structure of the source population, rather than an association with age-at-onset, by contrasting the effects of coffee drinking and cigarette smoking on Parkinson disease age-at-onset with the effects on age-at-enrollment in a population based study sample. Despite earlier evidence to suggest a protective association of coffee drinking and cigarette smoking with Parkinson disease risk, the age-at-onset results are comparable to the patterns observed in the population sample, and thus a causal inference from the age-at-onset effect may not be justified. Protective effects of multivitamin use on PD age-at-onset are also shown to be subject to a bias from the relationship between age and multivitamin initiation. Case-only studies of age-at-onset must be performed with an appreciation for the association between risk factors and age and ageing in the source population. PMID:17408493

Age structure and feeding of the neotropical grasshopper Cornops aquaticum (Bruner) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) on water hyacinth.

PubMed

Franceschini, M C; de Wysiecki, M L; Poi, A

2013-08-01

We aimed to evaluate the variation in the age structure of Cornops aquaticum (Bruner) population and its relation to the host plant biomass and the feeding of the different age classes of this grasshopper on the water hyacinth Eichhornia crassipes along 2 years, in a Paraná River floodplain lake (Chaco, Argentina). Individuals of C. aquaticum were captured with a 70-cm diameter sweep and separated in nymphs A (instars I and II), nymphs B (instars III to VI), adult females, and adult males; host plant biomass was sampled using a ring with a 0.30-m(2) diameter. Relative daily feeding of C. aquaticum population was calculated by multiplying the number of individuals captured per minute by the daily consumption by individual obtained in each age classes. We found that the age structure and the relative daily feeding of C. aquaticum varied between seasons and years. The highest values of grasshopper abundance, leaf biomass, and relative daily feeding of C. aquaticum population were observed in summer 2006. Plant biomass was directly correlated with nymph abundance and not correlated with adult abundance. Plant biomass available as refuge (leaves), food (laminas), and oviposition site (petioles) to C. aquaticum represented up to 62% of the total plant biomass. The results obtained in C. aquaticum show the importance of considering total plant biomass and plant biomass available for herbivores separately. Our study highlights the need to find an adequate method to estimate the density of C. aquaticum and other semiaquatic grasshoppers in the Paraná River floodplain involving different seasons, years, and water phases (rising and falling).

Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.

2014-02-01

The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.

Long live the axon. Parallels between ageing and pathology from a presynaptic point of view.

PubMed

Grillo, Federico W

2016-10-01

All animals have to find the right balance between investing resources into their reproductive cycle and protecting their tissues from age-related damage. In higher order organisms the brain is particularly vulnerable to ageing, as the great majority of post-mitotic neurons are there to stay for an entire life. While ageing is unavoidable, it may progress at different rates in different individuals of the same species depending on a variety of genetic and environmental factors. Inevitably though, ageing results in a cognitive and sensory-motor decline caused by changes in neuronal structure and function. Besides normal ageing, age-related pathological conditions can develop in a sizeable proportion of the population. While this wide array of diseases are considerably different compared to physiological ageing, the two processes share many similarities and are likely to interact. At the subcellular level, two key structures are involved in brain ageing: axons and their synapses. Here I highlight how the ageing process affects these structures in normal and neurodegenerative states in different brain areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

West Asia - a demographic profile.

PubMed

1980-01-01

The average rate of population growth in the Arab region is about 3% per year, and fertility rates are high. The population aged 15 years or under accounts for 48% of the total population in most countries. The rate of economically active population is very low, ranging from 22% to 32% of the total. Infant mortality rates range from 60/1000 to 200/1000. Illiteracy rates average around 47% of the total number of males aged 15 and above, and exceeded 70% among women. Special attention is being given girls' education. The proportion of girls aged 6-24 enrolled at various educational levels rose from about 14.3% in 1960 to about 25% in 1975. Female illiteracy rates in Arab countries are among the highest in the world. Negative attitudes toward working women continue to be the major obstacle and contributes to high fertility. Demographic profiles are given for Kuwait, Qatar, Yemen, and United Arab Emirates. In the United Arab Emirates the most prominent feature of the age-sex structure is the relatively large number of males between the ages of 20 and 40. The total fertility rate and the gross reproduction rate for the entire population in 1975 were estimated to be about 5.9 and 2.9 respectively. Between 1968 and 1975 the population of the United Arab Emirates grew from 180,226 to 557,887, yielding an annual growth of 14.6%.

Are plague pits of particular use to palaeoepidemiologists?

PubMed

Waldron, H A

2001-02-01

The demography and pattern of disease of skeletal assemblages may not accurately reflect those of the living population of which they were once a part. The hypothesis tested here was that skeletons from a mass disaster would more closely approximate to a living population than those from a conventional cemetery. Six hundred skeletons recovered from a Black Death plague pit in London were compared with 236 skeletons recovered from an overlying medieval cemetery. Age and sex were determined by standard anthropological means by a single observer and adjustments were made to correct for those skeletons for which either or both could not be established. An estimate of age structure of the living medieval population of London was made, using model life tables. The age and sex distribution and the pattern of disease in the Black Death skeletons did not differ substantially from those in the control group of skeletons. Both assemblages tended to overestimate the numbers in the younger age groups of the model population and underestimate the numbers in the oldest age group. On the evidence from this single site, a skeletal assemblage from a mass disaster does not provide a better representation of the living population from which it was derived than that from a conventional cemetery.

Tectonic evolution and provenance of the Santa Bárbara Group, Camaquã Mines region, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bicca, Marcos Müller; Chemale, Farid; Jelinek, Andrea Ritter; de Oliveira, Christie Helouise Engelmann; Guadagnin, Felipe; Armstrong, Richard

2013-12-01

Cu- and Pb-Zn-hosting sedimentary units of the upper part of the Camaquã Basin (Ediacaran-Lower Ordovician) in the Dom Feliciano Belt of southernmost Brazil were formed during the late stages of the West Gondwana amalgamation and were controlled by large left-handed strike-slip shear zones. Integration of structural geology, stratigraphy and thermochronology allow recognition of five structural events (D1, Ediacaran-Lower Cambrian, through D5, Cretaceous). D1 structures are related to a N30E-trending, sinistral strike-slip shear zone that controlled the deposition of the mineralized sedimentary unit and its overlying units, the Santa Barbara and Guaritas Groups, respectively, in a transtensional setting. Based on U-Pb in situ methods, it is possible (a) to establish a maximum depositional age of 566 ± 6.9 Ma for the basal section of the Santa Barbara Group and, therefore, a minimum age of ca. 566 Ma for D1, and (b) to recognize two main zircon populations, Neoproterozoic and Paleoproterozoic, with sources from the eastern and southern parts of the Dom Feliciano Belt and reworking of older units of the Camaquã Basin. The D2 structures are mainly N-trending shear zones that developed after the deposition of the Guaritas Group during the Cambrian. During the Phanerozoic (post-Cambrian), the recognized structures were connected to compressional and extensional events that affected West Gondwana and the South America Platform. Thermochronological fission track analyses on apatite revealed four main age populations. The first three are interpreted to have formed during tectonic processes at the Gondwana Margin, namely the Famatinian and Gondwanides orogenies, and can be related to the D3 and D4 tectonic events in the basin. The last age population formed from thermal heating by the Upper Cretaceous continental flood basalts, which are represented in the area by volcanic intrusions, that were related to the separation of Africa and South America.

The Relationship between Mono-abundance and Mono-age Stellar Populations in the Milky Way Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minchev, I.; Steinmetz, M.; Chiappini, C.; Martig, M.; Anders, F.; Matijevic, G.; de Jong, R. S.

2017-01-01

Studying the Milky Way disk structure using stars in narrow bins of [Fe/H] and [α/Fe] has recently been proposed as a powerful method to understand the Galactic thick and thin disk formation. It has been assumed so far that these mono-abundance populations (MAPs) are also coeval, or mono-age, populations. Here we study this relationship for a Milky Way chemodynamical model and show that equivalence between MAPs and mono-age populations exists only for the high-[α/Fe] tail, where the chemical evolution curves of different Galactic radii are far apart. At lower [α/Fe]-values an MAP is composed of stars with a range in ages, even for small observational uncertainties and a small MAP bin size. Due to the disk inside-out formation, for these MAPs younger stars are typically located at larger radii, which results in negative radial age gradients that can be as large as 2 Gyr kpc-1. Positive radial age gradients can result for MAPs at the lowest [α/Fe] and highest [Fe/H] end. Such variations with age prevent the simple interpretation of observations for which accurate ages are not available. Studying the variation with radius of the stellar surface density and scale height in our model, we find good agreement to recent analyses of the APOGEE red-clump (RC) sample when 1-4 Gyr old stars dominate (as expected for the RC). Our results suggest that the APOGEE data are consistent with a Milky Way model for which mono-age populations flare for all ages. We propose observational tests for the validity of our predictions and argue that using accurate age measurements, such as from asteroseismology, is crucial for putting constraints on Galactic formation and evolution.

The Old-Age Healthy Dependency Ratio in Europe.

PubMed

Muszyńska, Magdalena M; Rau, Roland

2012-09-01

The aim of this study is to answer the question of whether improvements in the health of the elderly in European countries could compensate for population ageing on the supply side of the labour market. We propose a state-of-health-specific (additive) decomposition of the old-age dependency ratio into an old-age healthy dependency ratio and an old-age unhealthy dependency ratio in order to participate in a discussion of the significance of changes in population health to compensate for the ageing of the labour force. Applying the proposed indicators to the Eurostat's population projection for the years 2010-2050, and assuming there will be equal improvements in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth, we discuss various scenarios concerning future of the European labour force. While improvements in population health are anticipated during the years 2010-2050, the growth in the number of elderly people in Europe may be expected to lead to a rise in both healthy and unhealthy dependency ratios. The healthy dependency ratio is, however, projected to make up the greater part of the old-age dependency ratio. In the European countries in 2006, the value of the old-age dependency ratio was 25. But in the year 2050, with a positive migration balance over the years 2010-2050, there would be 18 elderly people in poor health plus 34 in good health per 100 people in the current working age range of 15-64. In the scenarios developed in this study, we demonstrate that improvements in health and progress in preventing disability will not, by themselves, compensate for the ageing of the workforce. However, coupled with a positive migration balance, at the level and with the age structure assumed in the Eurostat's population projections, these developments could ease the effect of population ageing on the supply side of the European labour market.

Population structure and the burden of disease in the United Arab Emirates.

PubMed

Blair, Iain; Sharif, Amer Ahmad

2012-06-01

To carry out their duties more effectively, health care professionals in the UAE often ask about the population structure and the main causes of mortality and morbidity in the country. This paper summarizes what is known about these topics drawing on secondary data sources that are available in the public domain, including census data, population estimates, births and deaths, proportionate mortality, age-standardized mortality rates and disability adjusted life-years. There are inconsistencies and flaws in some of this data which this paper will highlight and attempt to explain. Since 2005, the UAE population has grown substantially owing to high natural growth and high net inward migration and is currently estimated to be about 8.2million. In 2008, injuries, heart disease, neoplasms and cerebrovascular disease accounted for 57% of deaths, and this is well known. Less is reported about the risk of death, disease, injury and disability. The population of the UAE is diverse, and there are variations in mortality and morbidity risk by age-group, sex and nationality. The authors recommend improvements in the timeliness, completeness and consistency of data. They conclude that better data will encourage more analysis which will generate health intelligence leading to health improvement for the UAE population. Copyright © 2012 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated Evaluation of Age-Related Changes in Structural and Functional Vascular Parameters Used to Assess Arterial Aging, Subclinical Atherosclerosis, and Cardiovascular Risk in Uruguayan Adults: CUiiDARTE Project

PubMed Central

Bia, Daniel; Zócalo, Yanina; Farro, Ignacio; Torrado, Juan; Farro, Federico; Florio, Lucía; Olascoaga, Alicia; Brum, Javier; Alallón, Walter; Negreira, Carlos; Lluberas, Ricardo; Armentano, Ricardo L.

2011-01-01

This work was carried out in a Uruguayan (South American) population to characterize aging-associated physiological arterial changes. Parameters markers of subclinical atherosclerosis and that associate age-related changes were evaluated in healthy people. A conservative approach was used and people with nonphysiological and pathological conditions were excluded. Then, we excluded subjects with (a) cardiovascular (CV) symptoms, (b) CV disease, (c) diabetes mellitus or renal failure, and (d) traditional CV risk factors (other than age and gender). Subjects (n = 388) were submitted to non-invasive vascular studies (gold-standard techniques), to evaluate (1) common (CCA), internal, and external carotid plaque prevalence, (2) CCA intima-media thickness and diameter, (3) CCA stiffness (percentual pulsatility, compliance, distensibility, and stiffness index), (4) aortic stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity), and (5) peripheral and central pressure wave-derived parameters. Age groups: ≤20, 21–30, 31–40, 41–50, 51–60, 61–70, and 71–80 years old. Age-related structural and functional vascular parameters profiles were obtained and analyzed considering data from other populations. The work has the strength of being the first, in Latin America, that uses an integrative approach to characterize vascular aging-related changes. Data could be used to define vascular aging and abnormal or disease-related changes. PMID:22187622

Integrated Evaluation of Age-Related Changes in Structural and Functional Vascular Parameters Used to Assess Arterial Aging, Subclinical Atherosclerosis, and Cardiovascular Risk in Uruguayan Adults: CUiiDARTE Project.

PubMed

Bia, Daniel; Zócalo, Yanina; Farro, Ignacio; Torrado, Juan; Farro, Federico; Florio, Lucía; Olascoaga, Alicia; Brum, Javier; Alallón, Walter; Negreira, Carlos; Lluberas, Ricardo; Armentano, Ricardo L

2011-01-01

This work was carried out in a Uruguayan (South American) population to characterize aging-associated physiological arterial changes. Parameters markers of subclinical atherosclerosis and that associate age-related changes were evaluated in healthy people. A conservative approach was used and people with nonphysiological and pathological conditions were excluded. Then, we excluded subjects with (a) cardiovascular (CV) symptoms, (b) CV disease, (c) diabetes mellitus or renal failure, and (d) traditional CV risk factors (other than age and gender). Subjects (n = 388) were submitted to non-invasive vascular studies (gold-standard techniques), to evaluate (1) common (CCA), internal, and external carotid plaque prevalence, (2) CCA intima-media thickness and diameter, (3) CCA stiffness (percentual pulsatility, compliance, distensibility, and stiffness index), (4) aortic stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity), and (5) peripheral and central pressure wave-derived parameters. Age groups: ≤20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, and 71-80 years old. Age-related structural and functional vascular parameters profiles were obtained and analyzed considering data from other populations. The work has the strength of being the first, in Latin America, that uses an integrative approach to characterize vascular aging-related changes. Data could be used to define vascular aging and abnormal or disease-related changes.

Differentiation of Cognitive Abilities across the Lifespan

PubMed Central

Tucker-Drob, Elliot M.

2009-01-01

Existing representations of cognitive ability structure are exclusively based on linear patterns of interrelations. However, a number of developmental and cognitive theories predict that abilities are differentially related across ages (age differentiation-dedifferentiation) and across levels of functioning (ability differentiation). Nonlinear factor analytic models were applied to multivariate cognitive ability data from 6,273 individuals, ages 4 to 101 years, who were selected to be nationally representative of the United States population. Results consistently supported ability differentiation, but were less clear with respect to age differentiation-dedifferentiation. Little evidence for age modification of ability differentiation was found. These findings are particularly informative about the nature of individual differences in cognition, and the developmental course of cognitive ability level and structure. PMID:19586182

The challenges of human population ageing

PubMed Central

Sander, Miriam; Oxlund, Bjarke; Jespersen, Astrid; Krasnik, Allan; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Westendorp, Rudi Gerardus Johannes; Rasmussen, Lene Juel

2015-01-01

The 20th century saw an unprecedented increase in average human lifespan as well as a rapid decline in human fertility in many countries of the world. The accompanying worldwide change in demographics of human populations is linked to unanticipated and unprecedented economic, cultural, medical, social, public health and public policy challenges, whose full implications on a societal level are only just beginning to be fully appreciated. Some of these implications are discussed in this commentary, an outcome of Cultures of Health and Ageing, a conference co-sponsored by the University of Copenhagen (UCPH) and the Center for Healthy Ageing at UCPH, which took place on 20–21 June 2014 in Copenhagen, Denmark. Questions discussed here include the following: what is driving age-structural change in human populations? how can we create ‘age-friendly’ societies and promote ‘ageing-in-community’? what tools will effectively promote social engagement and prevent social detachment among older individuals? is there a risk that further extension of human lifespan would be a greater burden to the individual and to society than is warranted by the potential benefit of longer life? PMID:25452294

Effects of stand age on the demography of a temperate forest herb in post-agricultural forests.

PubMed

Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein

2008-12-01

Changes in land use have been shown to have profound effects on forest plant community structure and diversity. Dispersal limitation has been invoked as a major factor hampering colonization of forest plant species, while seed-sowing experiments and performance observations have provided some evidence for recruitment limitation determining forest plant distribution in post-agricultural forests. However, most of these studies were relatively short-term, and very few studies have investigated long-term growth rates of populations occurring in recent and ancient forests. In this study, matrix models using demographic data collected for four consecutive years were used to study the effect of forest age on population dynamics of the temperate forest herb Primula elatior. A life table response experiment (LTRE) and elasticity analysis were used to analyze the effect of forest age on population growth rate (lambda) and to decompose the effect of forest age on lambda into contributions from each matrix element. Population growth increased logarithmically with increasing forest age. Bootstrap analyses showed that populations located in very recent forests (< 50-years-old) had growth rates that were significantly < 1, whereas populations located in forests > 150-years-old had growth rates that were significantly > 1. Summed elasticities for individual growth significantly decreased with increasing forest age, whereas summed elasticities for survival and fertility significantly increased with increasing forest age. The LTRE analysis showed that the increase in lambda with increasing forest age was mainly due to increased seedling and juvenile growth and increased juvenile and adult survival. Our results indicate that past agricultural land use has long-lasting effects on the demography of forest herbs and may provide an additional mechanistic explanation for the poor colonization capacity of many forest herbs in post-agricultural forests.

Nuclear microsatellites reveal contrasting patterns of genetic structure between western and southeastern European populations of the common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.).

PubMed

Heuertz, Myriam; Hausman, Jean-François; Hardy, Olivier J; Vendramin, Giovanni G; Frascaria-Lacoste, Nathalie; Vekemans, Xavier

2004-05-01

To determine extant patterns of population genetic structure in common ash and gain insight into postglacial recolonization processes, we applied multilocus-based Bayesian approaches to data from 36 European populations genotyped at five nuclear microsatellite loci. We identified two contrasting patterns in terms of population genetic structure: (1) a large area from the British Isles to Lithuania throughout central Europe constituted effectively a single deme, whereas (2) strong genetic differentiation occurred over short distances in Sweden and southeastern Europe. Concomitant geographical variation was observed in estimates of allelic richness and genetic diversity, which were lowest in populations from southeastern Europe, that is, in regions close to putative ice age refuges, but high in western and central Europe, that is, in more recently recolonized areas. We suggest that in southeastern Europe, restricted postglacial gene flow caused by a rapid expansion of refuge populations in a mountainous topography is responsible for the observed strong genetic structure. In contrast, admixture of previously differentiated gene pools and high gene flow at the onset of postglacial recolonization of western and central Europe would have homogenized the genetic structure and raised the levels of genetic diversity above values in the refuges.

The construction of MRI brain/head templates for Chinese children from 7 to 16 years of age

PubMed Central

Xie, Wanze; Richards, John E.; Lei, Du; Zhu, Hongyan; Lee, Kang; Gong, Qiyong

2015-01-01

Population-specific brain templates that provide detailed brain information are beneficial to both structural and functional neuroimaging research. However, age-specific MRI templates have not been constructed for Chinese or any Asian developmental populations. This study developed novel T1-weighted average brain and head templates for Chinese children from 7 to 16 years of age in two-year increments using high quality magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and well-validated image analysis techniques. A total of 138 Chinese children (51 F/87 M) were included in this study. The internally and externally validated registrations show that these Chinese age-specific templates fit Chinese children’s MR images significantly better than age-specific templates created from U.S. children, or adult templates based on either Chinese or North American adults. It implies that age-inappropriate (e.g., the Chinese56 template, the US20–24 template) and nationality-inappropriate brain templates (e.g., U.S. children’s templates, the US20–24 template) do not provide optimal reference MRIs for processing MR brain images of Chinese pediatric populations. Thus, our age-specific MRI templates are the first of the kind and should be useful in neuroimaging studies with children from Chinese or other Asian populations. These templates can also serve as the foundations for the construction of more comprehensive sets of nationality-specific templates for Asian developmental populations. These templates are available for use in our database. PMID:26343862

A statistical approach to quasi-extinction forecasting.

PubMed

Holmes, Elizabeth Eli; Sabo, John L; Viscido, Steven Vincent; Fagan, William Fredric

2007-12-01

Forecasting population decline to a certain critical threshold (the quasi-extinction risk) is one of the central objectives of population viability analysis (PVA), and such predictions figure prominently in the decisions of major conservation organizations. In this paper, we argue that accurate forecasting of a population's quasi-extinction risk does not necessarily require knowledge of the underlying biological mechanisms. Because of the stochastic and multiplicative nature of population growth, the ensemble behaviour of population trajectories converges to common statistical forms across a wide variety of stochastic population processes. This paper provides a theoretical basis for this argument. We show that the quasi-extinction surfaces of a variety of complex stochastic population processes (including age-structured, density-dependent and spatially structured populations) can be modelled by a simple stochastic approximation: the stochastic exponential growth process overlaid with Gaussian errors. Using simulated and real data, we show that this model can be estimated with 20-30 years of data and can provide relatively unbiased quasi-extinction risk with confidence intervals considerably smaller than (0,1). This was found to be true even for simulated data derived from some of the noisiest population processes (density-dependent feedback, species interactions and strong age-structure cycling). A key advantage of statistical models is that their parameters and the uncertainty of those parameters can be estimated from time series data using standard statistical methods. In contrast for most species of conservation concern, biologically realistic models must often be specified rather than estimated because of the limited data available for all the various parameters. Biologically realistic models will always have a prominent place in PVA for evaluating specific management options which affect a single segment of a population, a single demographic rate, or different geographic areas. However, for forecasting quasi-extinction risk, statistical models that are based on the convergent statistical properties of population processes offer many advantages over biologically realistic models.

[Regional differences in the development of hospitalizations : An effect of different demographic trends?

PubMed

Nowossadeck, Enno; Prütz, Franziska

2018-03-01

Population aging and population decline in many regions of the Federal Republic of Germany are key elements of demographic change. In the regions concerned there is a rising number of older people and, simultaneously, a declining population. So far, the consequences of regional shrinkage and growth for inpatient care don't seem to have been analysed very well. This paper analyses the influence of population aging and declining/increasing population (demographic factors) as well as other, non-demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations in Germany and the Federal States since 2000.One result of the analysis is that there are major differences between the Federal States. The analysis shows, for example, an increase of hospitalizations in Berlin while in Saxony-Anhalt the number of hospitalizations declines. The increase in Berlin was the result of population aging and, to a lower extent, an increase in population. In Saxony-Anhalt the declining population resulted in a decreasing number of hospitalizations. Population aging and non-demographic factors were not able to compensate this trend.Overall, the effect of demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations remains constant over time. Short-term changes of hospitalizations are due to non-demographic factors, such as epidemiological trends, (for example trends of incidence or prevalence), or structural changes of health care service (for example patients shifting between different sectors of health care or the introduction of new reimbursement systems).

The development of universal health insurance coverage in Thailand: Challenges of population aging and informal economy.

PubMed

Hsu, Minchung; Huang, Xianguo; Yupho, Somrasri

2015-11-01

This paper quantitatively investigates the sustainability of the universal health insurance coverage (UHI) system in Thailand while taking into account the country's rapidly aging population and large informal labor sector. We examine the effects of population aging and informal employment across three tax options for financing the UHI. A modern dynamic general equilibrium framework is utilized to conduct policy experiments and welfare analysis. In the case of labor income tax being used to finance the cost of UHI, an additional 11-15% of labor tax will be required with the 2050 population age structure, compared with the 2005 benchmark economy. We also find that an expansion of income tax base to the informal sector can substantially alleviate the tax burden. Based on welfare comparisons across the alternative tax options, the labor income tax is the most preferred because the inequality between formal/informal sectors is large. If the informal sector cannot avoid labor income tax, capital tax will be preferred over labor and consumption taxes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age, growth, and mortality of introduced flathead catfish in Atlantic rivers and a review of other populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kwak, T.J.; Pine, William E.; Waters, D.S.

2006-01-01

Knowledge of individual growth and mortality rates of an introduced fish population is required to determine the success and degree of establishment as well as to predict the fish's impact on native fauna. The age and growth of flathead catfish Pylodictis olivaris have been studied extensively in the species' native and introduced ranges, and estimates have varied widely. We quantified individual growth rates and age structure of three introduced flathead catfish populations in North Carolina's Atlantic slope rivers using sagittal otoliths, determined trends in growth rates over time, compared these estimates among rivers in native and introduced ranges, and determined total mortality rates for each population. Growth was significantly faster in the Northeast Cape Fear River (NECFR) than in the Lumber and Neuse rivers. Fish in the NECFR grew to a total length of 700 mm by age 7, whereas fish in the Neuse and Lumber river populations reached this length by 8 and 10 years, respectively. The growth rates of fish in all three rivers were consistently higher than those of native riverine populations, similar to those of native reservoir populations, and slower than those of other introduced riverine populations. In general, recent cohorts (1998-2001 year-classes) in these three rivers exhibited slower growth among all ages than did cohorts previous to the 1998 year-class. The annual total mortality rate was similar among the three rivers, ranging from 0.16 to 0.20. These mortality estimates are considerably lower than those from the Missouri and Mississippi rivers, suggesting relatively low fishing mortality for these introduced populations. Overall, flathead catfish populations in reservoirs grow faster than those in rivers, the growth rates of introduced populations exceed those of native populations, and eastern United States populations grow faster than those in western states. Such trends constitute critical information for understanding and managing local populations.

Genetic scores of smoking behaviour in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Yang, Shanshan; He, Yao; Wang, Jianhua; Wang, Yiyan; Wu, Lei; Zeng, Jing; Liu, Miao; Zhang, Di; Jiang, Bin; Li, Xiaoying

2016-03-07

This study sought to structure a genetic score for smoking behaviour in a Chinese population. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were evaluated in a community-representative sample (N = 3,553) of Beijing, China. The candidate SNPs were tested in four genetic models (dominance model, recessive model, heterogeneous codominant model and additive model), and 7 SNPs were selected to structure a genetic score. A total of 3,553 participants (1,477 males and 2,076 females) completed the survey. Using the unweighted score, we found that participants with a high genetic score had a 34% higher risk of trying smoking and a 43% higher risk of SI at ≤ 18 years of age after adjusting for age, gender, education, occupation, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI) and sports activity time. The unweighted genetic scores were chosen to best extrapolate and understand these results. Importantly, genetic score was significantly associated with smoking behaviour (smoking status and SI at ≤ 18 years of age). These results have the potential to guide relevant health education for individuals with high genetic scores and promote the process of smoking control to improve the health of the population.

Effects of resource quality on the population dynamics of the Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella and its granulovirus.

PubMed

McVean, Ross I; Sait, Steve M; Thompson, David J; Begon, Mike

2002-03-01

Although the Plodia interpunctella-granulovirus system is one of the most studied models for insect-pathogen interactions, there are relatively few precise data on the dynamics of the virus in coexisting populations of these two organisms. Previous work has suggested that resource quality, in terms of the diet supplied to P. interpunctella, has a strong effect on the population dynamics of host and pathogen. Here we investigate the impact of resource-dependent host patterns of abundance on pathogen dynamics and prevalence. In the laboratory, three populations of P. interpunctella feeding on a good quality food and infected with a granulovirus were compared with three populations also infected with a granulovirus but feeding on poor quality food. Populations feeding on good quality food produced larger adult moths, and had greater numbers of adult moths, healthy larvae, and virus-infected larvae. A higher proportion of larvae in these good quality populations were infected with virus, and adult moths exhibited cyclic fluctuations in abundance, unlike those on poor quality food. This cyclic behaviour was shown to be associated with cycles in the age structure of the larval population. Previous theoretical work suggests that these cycles may result from asymmetric competition between young and old larvae. Cyclic fluctuations in the proportion of infected larvae, that occurred on good, but not on poor quality food, were also shown to be related to cycles in the age structure of the larval population.

Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

The role of social and ecological processes in structuring animal populations: a case study from automated tracking of wild birds

PubMed Central

Farine, Damien R.; Firth, Josh A.; Aplin, Lucy M.; Crates, Ross A.; Culina, Antica; Garroway, Colin J.; Hinde, Camilla A.; Kidd, Lindall R.; Milligan, Nicole D.; Psorakis, Ioannis; Radersma, Reinder; Verhelst, Brecht; Voelkl, Bernhard; Sheldon, Ben C.

2015-01-01

Both social and ecological factors influence population process and structure, with resultant consequences for phenotypic selection on individuals. Understanding the scale and relative contribution of these two factors is thus a central aim in evolutionary ecology. In this study, we develop a framework using null models to identify the social and spatial patterns that contribute to phenotypic structure in a wild population of songbirds. We used automated technologies to track 1053 individuals that formed 73 737 groups from which we inferred a social network. Our framework identified that both social and spatial drivers contributed to assortment in the network. In particular, groups had a more even sex ratio than expected and exhibited a consistent age structure that suggested local association preferences, such as preferential attachment or avoidance. By contrast, recent immigrants were spatially partitioned from locally born individuals, suggesting differential dispersal strategies by phenotype. Our results highlight how different scales of social decision-making, ranging from post-natal dispersal settlement to fission–fusion dynamics, can interact to drive phenotypic structure in animal populations. PMID:26064644

Effect of extreme sea surface temperature events on the demography of an age-structured albatross population.

PubMed

Pardo, Deborah; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Weimerskirch, Henri; Barbraud, Christophe

2017-06-19

Climate changes include concurrent changes in environmental mean, variance and extremes, and it is challenging to understand their respective impact on wild populations, especially when contrasted age-dependent responses to climate occur. We assessed how changes in mean and standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST), frequency and magnitude of warm SST extreme climatic events (ECE) influenced the stochastic population growth rate log( λ s ) and age structure of a black-browed albatross population. For changes in SST around historical levels observed since 1982, changes in standard deviation had a larger (threefold) and negative impact on log( λ s ) compared to changes in mean. By contrast, the mean had a positive impact on log( λ s ). The historical SST mean was lower than the optimal SST value for which log( λ s ) was maximized. Thus, a larger environmental mean increased the occurrence of SST close to this optimum that buffered the negative effect of ECE. This 'climate safety margin' (i.e. difference between optimal and historical climatic conditions) and the specific shape of the population growth rate response to climate for a species determine how ECE affect the population. For a wider range in SST, both the mean and standard deviation had negative impact on log( λ s ), with changes in the mean having a greater effect than the standard deviation. Furthermore, around SST historical levels increases in either mean or standard deviation of the SST distribution led to a younger population, with potentially important conservation implications for black-browed albatrosses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Aging and health among migrants in a European perspective.

PubMed

Kristiansen, Maria; Razum, Oliver; Tezcan-Güntekin, Hürrem; Krasnik, Allan

Population aging and the associated changes in demographic structures and healthcare needs is a key challenge across Europe. Healthy aging strategies focus on ensuring the ability to maintain health, quality of life and independent living at old age. Concurrent to the process of population aging, the demographics of Europe are affected by increased migration resulting in substantial ethnic diversity. In this paper, we narratively review the health profile of the growing proportion of aging migrants in Europe, outline key factors shaping health among this diverse group and consider ways of addressing their healthcare needs. Although factors shaping aging processes are largely similar across populations, migrant-specific risk factors exist. These include exposure to health risks before and during migration; a more disadvantaged socioeconomic position; language barriers and low health literacy; cultural factors influencing health-seeking behaviours; and psychosocial vulnerability and discrimination affecting health and quality of life. Overall, migrants experience the same morbidity and mortality causes as the native populations, but with different relative importance, severity and age of onset and with substantial differences within and between migrant groups. Little is known regarding health behaviours among aging migrants, although differences in cancer screening behaviours have been identified. Indications of widening health differentials between migrants and native populations with age and informal barriers to quality healthcare for aging migrants are causes of concern. In conclusion, there is a need for attention to migration alongside other determinants of healthy aging. The diversity in individual characteristics, life course processes and contextual factors shaping aging processes among migrants point to the need for a sensitive and comprehensive approach to policies, practices and research within the field of healthy aging. This is important to accommodate for the needs of the growing number of aging migrants in Europe and counter inequities in health and well-being at old age.

The Influence of Social Structure, Habitat, and Host Traits on the Transmission of Escherichia coli in Wild Elephants

PubMed Central

Chiyo, Patrick I.; Grieneisen, Laura E.; Wittemyer, George; Moss, Cynthia J.; Lee, Phyllis C.; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain; Archie, Elizabeth A.

2014-01-01

Social structure is proposed to influence the transmission of both directly and environmentally transmitted infectious agents. However in natural populations, many other factors also influence transmission, including variation in individual susceptibility and aspects of the environment that promote or inhibit exposure to infection. We used a population genetic approach to investigate the effects of social structure, environment, and host traits on the transmission of Escherichia coli infecting two populations of wild elephants: one in Amboseli National Park and another in Samburu National Reserve, Kenya. If E. coli transmission is strongly influenced by elephant social structure, E. coli infecting elephants from the same social group should be genetically more similar than E. coli sampled from members of different social groups. However, we found no support for this prediction. Instead, E. coli was panmictic across social groups, and transmission patterns were largely dominated by habitat and host traits. For instance, habitat overlap between elephant social groups predicted E. coli genetic similarity, but only in the relatively drier habitat of Samburu, and not in Amboseli, where the habitat contains large, permanent swamps. In terms of host traits, adult males were infected with more diverse haplotypes, and males were slightly more likely to harbor strains with higher pathogenic potential, as compared to adult females. In addition, elephants from similar birth cohorts were infected with genetically more similar E. coli than elephants more disparate in age. This age-structured transmission may be driven by temporal shifts in genetic structure of E. coli in the environment and the effects of age on bacterial colonization. Together, our results support the idea that, in elephants, social structure often will not exhibit strong effects on the transmission of generalist, fecal-oral transmitted bacteria. We discuss our results in the context of social, environmental, and host-related factors that influence transmission patterns. PMID:24705319

The influence of social structure, habitat, and host traits on the transmission of Escherichia coli in wild elephants.

PubMed

Chiyo, Patrick I; Grieneisen, Laura E; Wittemyer, George; Moss, Cynthia J; Lee, Phyllis C; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain; Archie, Elizabeth A

2014-01-01

Social structure is proposed to influence the transmission of both directly and environmentally transmitted infectious agents. However in natural populations, many other factors also influence transmission, including variation in individual susceptibility and aspects of the environment that promote or inhibit exposure to infection. We used a population genetic approach to investigate the effects of social structure, environment, and host traits on the transmission of Escherichia coli infecting two populations of wild elephants: one in Amboseli National Park and another in Samburu National Reserve, Kenya. If E. coli transmission is strongly influenced by elephant social structure, E. coli infecting elephants from the same social group should be genetically more similar than E. coli sampled from members of different social groups. However, we found no support for this prediction. Instead, E. coli was panmictic across social groups, and transmission patterns were largely dominated by habitat and host traits. For instance, habitat overlap between elephant social groups predicted E. coli genetic similarity, but only in the relatively drier habitat of Samburu, and not in Amboseli, where the habitat contains large, permanent swamps. In terms of host traits, adult males were infected with more diverse haplotypes, and males were slightly more likely to harbor strains with higher pathogenic potential, as compared to adult females. In addition, elephants from similar birth cohorts were infected with genetically more similar E. coli than elephants more disparate in age. This age-structured transmission may be driven by temporal shifts in genetic structure of E. coli in the environment and the effects of age on bacterial colonization. Together, our results support the idea that, in elephants, social structure often will not exhibit strong effects on the transmission of generalist, fecal-oral transmitted bacteria. We discuss our results in the context of social, environmental, and host-related factors that influence transmission patterns.

Welcome mats? The role of seagrass meadow structure in controlling post-settlement survival in a keystone sea-urchin species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prado, Patricia; Romero, Javier; Alcoverro, Teresa

2009-11-01

Processes acting on the early-life histories of marine organisms can have important consequences for the structuring of benthic communities. In particular, the degree of coupling between larval supply and adult abundances can wield considerable influence on the strength of trophic interactions in the ecosystem. These processes have been relatively well described in rocky systems and soft-sediment communities, and it is clear that they are governed by very different bottlenecks. Seagrass meadows make interesting study systems because they bear structural affinities to both soft sediments as well as rocky substrates. We examined the early-life history of Paracentrotus lividus, one of the dominant herbivores in Mediterranean seagrass meadows, to identify the drivers of population dynamics in this species. We measured spatial and temporal variability in sea urchin post-settlement in 10 Posidonia oceanica meadows in the North-Western Mediterranean over a period of two years, and compared the numbers with the one-year old cohort a year later (i.e. the new population recruitment) as well as between successive size-age groups. Urchin post-settlers differed substantially between meadows but were present in both years in all meadows surveyed, suggesting that larval supply was not limiting for any of the studied sites. However, in six of the studied meadows, the one-year cohort of urchins was absent in both years, indicating that post-settlement processes strongly affected urchins in these meadows. In contrast, in four of the studied meadows, there was a strong coupling between post-settlers and one-year cohort individuals. These meadows were structurally different from the others in that they were characterised by an exposed matrix of rhizomes forming a dense seagrass mat. This mat apparently strongly mediates post-settlement mortality, and its presence or absence dictates the successful establishment of urchin populations in seagrass meadows. As the population aged, the relationship between size-age groups decreased evidencing the action of other processes. Yet, these results indicate that differences in physical structure are a vital bottleneck for sea urchin populations in seagrass meadows. Exploring the interaction between ecosystem structure and early-life history may provide a broader and more unified framework to understand the dynamics of a range of benthic habitats, including rocky substrates, soft sediments and seagrass meadows.

Integrating Temperature-Dependent Life Table Data into a Matrix Projection Model for Drosophila suzukii Population Estimation

PubMed Central

Wiman, Nik G.; Walton, Vaughn M.; Dalton, Daniel T.; Anfora, Gianfranco; Burrack, Hannah J.; Chiu, Joanna C.; Daane, Kent M.; Grassi, Alberto; Miller, Betsey; Tochen, Samantha; Wang, Xingeng; Ioriatti, Claudio

2014-01-01

Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US) and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix) and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit). Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations. PMID:25192013

Perceptions of Aging across 26 Cultures and their Culture-Level Associates

PubMed Central

Löckenhoff, Corinna E.; De Fruyt, Filip; Terracciano, Antonio; McCrae, Robert R.; De Bolle, Marleen; Costa, Paul T.; Aguilar-Vafaie, Maria E.; Ahn, Chang-kyu; Ahn, Hyun-nie; Alcalay, Lidia; Allik, Juri; Avdeyeva, Tatyana. V.; Barbaranelli, Claudio; Benet-Martinez, Veronica; Blatný, Marek; Bratko, Denis; Brunner-Sciarra, Marina; Cain, Thomas R.; Crawford, Jarret T.; Lima, Margarida P.; Ficková, Emília; Gheorghiu, Mirona; Halberstadt, Jamin; Hřebíčková, Martina; Jussim, Lee; Klinkosz, Waldemar; Knežević, Goran; Leibovich de Figueroa, Nora; Martin, Thomas. A.; Marušić, Iris; Mastor, Khairul Anwar; Miramontez, Daniel R.; Nakazato, Katsuharu; Nansubuga, Florence; Pramila, V.S.; Purić, Danka; Realo, Anu; Reátegui, Norma; Rolland, Jean-Pierre; Rossier, Jerome; Schmidt, Vanina; Sekowski, Andrzej; Shakespeare-Finch, Jane; Shimonaka, Yoshiko; Simonetti, Franco; Siuta, Jerzy; Smith, Peter B.; Szmigielska, Barbara; Wang, Lei; Yamaguchi, Mami; Yik, Michelle

2010-01-01

College students (N = 3,435) in 26 cultures reported their perceptions of age-related changes in physical, cognitive, and socioemotional areas of functioning and rated societal views of aging within their culture. There was widespread cross-cultural consensus regarding the expected direction of aging trajectories with (1) perceived declines in societal views of aging, physical attractiveness, the ability to perform everyday tasks, and new learning, (2) perceived increases in wisdom, knowledge, and received respect, and (3) perceived stability in family authority and life satisfaction. Cross-cultural variations in aging perceptions were associated with culture-level indicators of population aging, education levels, values, and national character stereotypes. These associations were stronger for societal views on aging and perceptions of socioemotional changes than for perceptions of physical and cognitive changes. A consideration of culture-level variables also suggested that previously reported differences in aging perceptions between Asian and Western countries may be related to differences in population structure. PMID:20025408

The aging of elite male athletes: age-related changes in performance and skeletal muscle structure and function

PubMed Central

Faulkner, John A.; Davis, Carol S.; Mendias, Christopher L.; Brooks, Susan V.

2009-01-01

Objective The paper addresses the degree to which the attainment of the status as an elite athlete in different sports ameliorates the known age-related losses in skeletal muscle structure and function. Design The retrospective design, based on comparisons of published data on former elite and masters athletes and data on control subjects, assessed the degree to which the attainment of ‘elite and masters athlete status’ ameliorated the known age-related changes in skeletal muscle structure and function. Setting Institutional. Participants Elite male athletes. Interventions Participation in selected individual and team sports. Main Outcome Measurements Strength, power, VO2 max and performance. Results For elite athletes in all sports, as for the general population, age-related muscle atrophy begins at about 50 years of age. Despite the loss of muscle mass, elite athletes who maintain an active life style age gracefully with few health problems. Conversely, those who lapse into inactivity regress toward general population norms for fitness, weight control, and health problems. Elite athletes in the dual and team sports have careers that rarely extend into the thirties. Conclusions Life long physical activity does not appear to have any impact on the loss in fiber number. The loss of fibers can be buffered to some degree by hypertrophy of fibers that remain. Surprisingly, the performance of elite athletes in all sports appears to be impaired before the onset of the fiber loss. Even with major losses in physical capacity and muscle mass, the performance of elite and masters athletes is remarkable. PMID:19001883

Age structure and cooperation in coevolutionary games on dynamic network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zilong; Hu, Zhenhua; Zhou, Xiaoping; Yi, Jingzhang

2015-04-01

Our proposed model imitates the growth of a population and describes the age structure and the level of cooperation in games on dynamic network with continuous changes of structure and topology. The removal of nodes and links caused by age-dependent attack, together with the nodes addition standing for the newborns of population, badly ruins Matthew effect in this coevolutionary process. Though the network is generated by growth and preferential attachment, it degenerates into random network and it is no longer heterogeneous. When the removal of nodes and links is equal to the addition of nodes and links, the size of dynamic network is maintained in steady-state, so is the low level of cooperation. Severe structure variation, homogeneous topology and continuous invasion of new defection jointly make dynamic network unsuitable for the survival of cooperator even when the probability with which the newborn players initially adopt the strategy cooperation is high, while things change slightly when the connections of newborn players are restricted. Fortunately, moderate interactions in a generation trigger an optimal recovering process to encourage cooperation. The model developed in this paper outlines an explanation of the cohesion changes in the development process of an organization. Some suggestions for cooperative behavior improvement are given in the end.

Adenomatous hyperplasia of the thyroid gland in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary and Hudson Bay, Quebec, Canada.

PubMed

Mikaelian, I; Labelle, P; Kopal, M; De Guise, S; Martineau, D

2003-11-01

We evaluated thyroid gland lesions in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary (n = 16) and Hudson Bay (n = 14). Follicular cysts and nodules of adenomatous hyperplasia of the thyroid gland were found in eight and nine adults from the St. Lawrence Estuary (n = 10), respectively, and in four and six adults from Hudson Bay (n = 14), respectively. The total volume of the lesions of thyroid adenomatous hyperplasia was positively correlated with age in both populations. Comparison between populations could not be performed because of differences in age structures of sample groups. Beluga whales from both populations have unique thyroid lesions among marine mammals.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cassirer, E. Frances; Plowright, Raina K.; Manlove, Kezia R.; Cross, Paul C.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Potter, Kathleen A.; Hudson, Peter J.

2013-01-01

Bighorn sheep mortality related to pneumonia is a primary factor limiting population recovery across western North America, but management has been constrained by an incomplete understanding of the disease. We analysed patterns of pneumonia-caused mortality over 14 years in 16 interconnected bighorn sheep populations to gain insights into underlying disease processes. 2. We observed four age-structured classes of annual pneumonia mortality patterns: all-age, lamb-only, secondary all-age and adult-only. Although there was considerable variability within classes, overall they differed in persistence within and impact on populations. Years with pneumonia-induced mortality occurring simultaneously across age classes (i.e. all-age) appeared to be a consequence of pathogen invasion into a naïve population and resulted in immediate population declines. Subsequently, low recruitment due to frequent high mortality outbreaks in lambs, probably due to association with chronically infected ewes, posed a significant obstacle to population recovery. Secondary all-age events occurred in previously exposed populations when outbreaks in lambs were followed by lower rates of pneumonia-induced mortality in adults. Infrequent pneumonia events restricted to adults were usually of short duration with low mortality. 3. Acute pneumonia-induced mortality in adults was concentrated in fall and early winter around the breeding season when rams are more mobile and the sexes commingle. In contrast, mortality restricted to lambs peaked in summer when ewes and lambs were concentrated in nursery groups. 4. We detected weak synchrony in adult pneumonia between adjacent populations, but found no evidence for landscape-scale extrinsic variables as drivers of disease. 5. We demonstrate that there was a >60% probability of a disease event each year following pneumonia invasion into bighorn sheep populations. Healthy years also occurred periodically, and understanding the factors driving these apparent fade-out events may be the key to managing this disease. Our data and modelling indicate that pneumonia can have greater impacts on bighorn sheep populations than previously reported, and we present hypotheses about processes involved for testing in future investigations and management.

Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

PubMed Central

Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

2014-01-01

Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

A demographic study of the exponential distribution applied to uneven-aged forests

Treesearch

Jeffrey H. Gove

2016-01-01

A demographic approach based on a size-structured version of the McKendrick-Von Foerster equation is used to demonstrate a theoretical link between the population size distribution and the underlying vital rates (recruitment, mortality and diameter growth) for the population of individuals whose diameter distribution is negative exponential. This model supports the...

Ethnic and Gender Considerations in the Use of Facial Injectables: African-American Patients.

PubMed

Burgess, Cheryl; Awosika, Olabola

2015-11-01

The United States is becoming increasingly more diverse as the nonwhite population continues to rise faster than ever. By 2044, the US Census Bureau projects that greater than 50% of the US population will be of nonwhite descent. Ethnic patients are the quickest growing portion of the cosmetic procedures market, with African-Americans comprising 7.1% of the 22% of ethnic minorities who received cosmetic procedures in the United States in 2014. The cosmetic concerns and natural features of this ethnic population are unique and guided by differing structural and aging processes than their white counterparts. As people of color increasingly seek nonsurgical cosmetic procedures, dermatologists and cosmetic surgeons must become aware that the Westernized look does not necessarily constitute beauty in these diverse people. The use of specialized aesthetic approaches and understanding of cultural and ethnic-specific features are warranted in the treatment of these patients. This article will review the key principles to consider when treating African-American patients, including the average facial structure of African-Americans, the impact of their ethnicity on aging and structure of face, and soft-tissue augmentation strategies specific to African-American skin.

Low but significant genetic differentiation underlies biologically meaningful phenotypic divergence in a large Atlantic salmon population.

PubMed

Aykanat, Tutku; Johnston, Susan E; Orell, Panu; Niemelä, Eero; Erkinaro, Jaakko; Primmer, Craig R

2015-10-01

Despite decades of research assessing the genetic structure of natural populations, the biological meaning of low yet significant genetic divergence often remains unclear due to a lack of associated phenotypic and ecological information. At the same time, structured populations with low genetic divergence and overlapping boundaries can potentially provide excellent models to study adaptation and reproductive isolation in cases where high-resolution genetic markers and relevant phenotypic and life history information are available. Here, we combined single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based population inference with extensive phenotypic and life history data to identify potential biological mechanisms driving fine-scale subpopulation differentiation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) from the Teno River, a major salmon river in Europe. Two sympatrically occurring subpopulations had low but significant genetic differentiation (FST  = 0.018) and displayed marked differences in the distribution of life history strategies, including variation in juvenile growth rate, age at maturity and size within age classes. Large, late-maturing individuals were virtually absent from one of the two subpopulations, and there were significant differences in juvenile growth rates and size at age after oceanic migration between individuals in the respective subpopulations. Our findings suggest that different evolutionary processes affect each subpopulation and that hybridization and subsequent selection may maintain low genetic differentiation without hindering adaptive divergence. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temporal stability of an endemic Mexican treefrog

PubMed Central

Cruz-Ruiz, Griselda; Venegas-Barrera, Crystian S.; Sanchez-Sanchez, Hermilo

2015-01-01

The demographic characteristics of an amphibian population fluctuate independently over time, mainly in response to the temporal variation of environmental factors, especially precipitation and temperature. These temporal fluctuations may contribute to the size of an amphibian population and could be used to determine the current conservation status of a species. During a five year (2004–2008) period, we studied the relative abundance, sex ratio, and age-sex structure of a population of metamorphosed individuals of the endemic treefrog Hyla eximia in Central Mexico. We also studied the species’ relationship with climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. We found an interannual constant abundance during the study period. However, interannual differences were observed in the population structure by age-sex category (males, females, or juveniles), with decreased abundance of males and juveniles during the rainy months (August–November). The annual abundance of H. eximia was positively correlated with rainfall, but negatively with monthly temperature. We found the sex ratio was male-biased (2:1), except for year 2008. Also, differences in snout-vent length (SVL) were found between years, suggesting changes in recruitment of new individuals. We conclude that variations in abundance, and frequencies by age-sex category, of H. eximia are related to seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation characteristics of temperate zones. However, this temporal stability may suggest that anurans have an unusual capacity to persist even in the face of human-induced habitat change. PMID:26421242

Reference ranges of left ventricular structure and function assessed by contrast-enhanced cardiac MR and changes related to ageing and hypertension in a population-based study.

PubMed

Bülow, Robin; Ittermann, Till; Dörr, Marcus; Poesch, Axel; Langner, Sönke; Völzke, Henry; Hosten, Norbert; Dewey, Marc

2018-03-14

Reference ranges of left ventricular (LV) parameters from cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) were established to investigate the impact of ageing and hypertension as important determinants of cardiac structure and function. One thousand five hundred twenty-five contrast-enhanced CMRs were conducted in the Study of Health in Pomerania. LV end-diastolic volume (LVEDV), end-systolic volume (LVESV), stroke volume (LVSV), ejection fraction (LVEF), and myocardial mass (LVMM) were determined using long- and short-axis steady-state free-precession sequences. The reference population was defined as participants without late enhancement, hypertension, and prior cardiovascular diseases. Reference ranges were established by quantile regression (5th and 95th percentile) and compared with an additional sample of treated and untreated hypertensives. LV volumes in the reference population (n = 634, 300 males, 334 females, 52.1 ± 13.3 years) aged between 20-69 years were lower with higher age (p = 0.001), whereas LVEFs were higher (p ≤ 0.020). LVMM was lower only in males (p = 0.002). Compared with the reference population, hypertension was associated with lower LVEDV in males (n = 258, p ≤ 0.032). Antihypertensive therapy was associated with higher LVEF in males (n = 258, +2.5%, p = 0.002) and females (n = 180, +2.1%, p = 0.001). Population-based LV reference ranges were derived from contrast-enhanced CMR. Hypertension-related changes were identified by comparing these values with those of hypertensives, and they might be used to monitor cardiac function in these patients. • Left ventricular function changed slightly but significantly between 20-69 years. • Reference values of BSA-indexed myocardial mass decreased with age in males. • Hypertension was associated with lower LV end-diastolic volume only in males. • CMR may allow assessing remodelling related to hypertension or antihypertensive treatment.

Aging in Poland.

PubMed

Leszko, Magdalena; Zając-Lamparska, Ludmila; Trempala, Janusz

2015-10-01

With 38 million residents, Poland has the eighth-largest population in Europe. A successful transition from communism to democracy, which began in 1989, has brought several significant changes to the country's economic development, demographic structure, quality of life, and public policies. As in the other European countries, Poland has been facing a rapid increase in the number of older adults. Currently, the population 65 and above is growing more rapidly than the total population and this discrepancy will have important consequences for the country's economy. As the population ages, there will be increased demands to improve Poland's health care and retirement systems. This article aims to provide a brief overview of the demographic trends in Poland as well a look at the country's major institutions of gerontology research. The article also describes key public policies concerning aging and how these may affect the well-being of Poland's older adults. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global asymptotic stability of plant-seed bank models.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2014-07-01

Many plant populations have persistent seed banks, which consist of viable seeds that remain dormant in the soil for many years. Seed banks are important for plant population dynamics because they buffer against environmental perturbations and reduce the probability of extinction. Viability of the seeds in the seed bank can depend on the seed's age, hence it is important to keep track of the age distribution of seeds in the seed bank. In this paper we construct a general density-dependent plant-seed bank model where the seed bank is age-structured. We consider density dependence in both seedling establishment and seed production, since previous work has highlighted that overcrowding can suppress both of these processes. Under certain assumptions on the density dependence, we prove that there is a globally stable equilibrium population vector which is independent of the initial state. We derive an analytical formula for the equilibrium population using methods from feedback control theory. We apply these results to a model for the plant species Cirsium palustre and its seed bank.

Insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR) levels in a general adult population: curves percentile by gender and age. The EPIRCE study.

PubMed

Gayoso-Diz, Pilar; Otero-Gonzalez, Alfonso; Rodriguez-Alvarez, María Xosé; Gude, Francisco; Cadarso-Suarez, Carmen; García, Fernando; De Francisco, Angel

2011-10-01

To describe the distribution of HOMA-IR levels in a general nondiabetic population and its relationships with metabolic and lifestyles characteristics. Cross-sectional study. Data from 2246 nondiabetic adults in a random Spanish population sample, stratified by age and gender, were analyzed. Assessments included a structured interview, physical examination, and blood sampling. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to assess the effect of lifestyle habits and clinical and demographic measurements on HOMA-IR. Multivariate GAMs and quantile regression analyses of HOMA-IR were carried out separately in men and women. This study shows refined estimations of HOMA-IR levels by age, body mass index, and waist circumference in men and women. HOMA-IR levels were higher in men (2.06) than women (1.95) (P=0.047). In women, but not men, HOMA-IR and age showed a significant nonlinear association (P=0.006), with increased levels above fifty years of age. We estimated HOMA-IR curves percentile in men and women. Age- and gender-adjusted HOMA-IR levels are reported in a representative Spanish adult non-diabetic population. There are gender-specific differences, with increased levels in women over fifty years of age that may be related with changes in body fat distribution after menopause. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Ice Ages on the genetic structure of trees and shrubs.

PubMed Central

Lascoux, Martin; Palmé, Anna E; Cheddadi, Rachid; Latta, Robert G

2004-01-01

Data on the genetic structure of tree and shrub populations on the continental scale have accumulated dramatically over the past decade. However, our ability to make inferences on the impact of the last ice age still depends crucially on the availability of informative palaeoecological data. This is well illustrated by the results from a recent project, during which new pollen fossil maps were established and the variation in chloroplast DNA was studied in 22 European species of trees and shrubs. Species exhibit very different levels of genetic variation between and within populations, and obviously went through very different histories after Ice Ages. However, when palaeoecological data are non-informative, inferences on past history are difficult to draw from entirely genetic data. On the other hand, as illustrated by a study in ponderosa pine, when we can infer the species' history with some certainty, coalescent simulations can be used and new hypotheses can be tested. PMID:15101576

Perlecan expression influences the keratin 15‐positive cell population fate in the epidermis of aging skin

PubMed Central

Dos Santos, Morgan; Michopoulou, Anna; André‐Frei, Valérie; Boulesteix, Sophie; Guicher, Christine; Dayan, Guila; Whitelock, John; Damour, Odile; Rousselle, Patricia

2016-01-01

The epidermis is continuously renewed by stem cell proliferation and differentiation. Basal keratinocytes append the dermal‐epidermal junction, a cell surface‐associated, extracellular matrix that provides structural support and influences their behaviour. It consists of laminins, type IV collagen, nidogens, and perlecan, which are necessary for tissue organization and structural integrity. Perlecan is a heparan sulfate proteoglycan known to be involved in keratinocyte survival and differentiation. Aging affects the dermal epidermal junction resulting in decreased contact with keratinocytes, thus impacting epidermal renewal and homeostasis. We found that perlecan expression decreased during chronological skin aging. Our in vitro studies revealed reduced perlecan transcript levels in aged keratinocytes. The production of in vitro skin models revealed that aged keratinocytes formed a thin and poorly organized epidermis. Supplementing these models with purified perlecan reversed the phenomenon allowing restoration of a well‐differentiated multi‐layered epithelium. Perlecan down‐regulation in cultured keratinocytes caused depletion of the cell population that expressed keratin 15. This phenomenon depended on the perlecan heparan sulphate moieties, which suggested the involvement of a growth factor. Finally, we found defects in keratin 15 expression in the epidermis of aging skin. This study highlighted a new role for perlecan in maintaining the self‐renewal capacity of basal keratinocytes. PMID:26996820

Genetic Variation and Population Differentiation in a Medical Herb Houttuynia cordata in China Revealed by Inter-Simple Sequence Repeats (ISSRs)

PubMed Central

Wei, Lin; Wu, Xian-Jin

2012-01-01

Houttuynia cordata is an important traditional Chinese herb with unresolved genetics and taxonomy, which lead to potential problems in the conservation and utilization of the resource. Inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers were used to assess the level and distribution of genetic diversity in 226 individuals from 15 populations of H. cordata in China. ISSR analysis revealed low genetic variations within populations but high genetic differentiations among populations. This genetic structure probably mainly reflects the historical association among populations. Genetic cluster analysis showed that the basal clade is composed of populations from Southwest China, and the other populations have continuous and eastward distributions. The structure of genetic diversity in H. cordata demonstrated that this species might have survived in Southwest China during the glacial age, and subsequently experienced an eastern postglacial expansion. Based on the results of genetic analysis, it was proposed that as many as possible targeted populations for conservation be included. PMID:22942696

Genetic variation and population differentiation in a medical herb Houttuynia cordata in China revealed by inter-simple sequence repeats (ISSRs).

PubMed

Wei, Lin; Wu, Xian-Jin

2012-01-01

Houttuynia cordata is an important traditional Chinese herb with unresolved genetics and taxonomy, which lead to potential problems in the conservation and utilization of the resource. Inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers were used to assess the level and distribution of genetic diversity in 226 individuals from 15 populations of H. cordata in China. ISSR analysis revealed low genetic variations within populations but high genetic differentiations among populations. This genetic structure probably mainly reflects the historical association among populations. Genetic cluster analysis showed that the basal clade is composed of populations from Southwest China, and the other populations have continuous and eastward distributions. The structure of genetic diversity in H. cordata demonstrated that this species might have survived in Southwest China during the glacial age, and subsequently experienced an eastern postglacial expansion. Based on the results of genetic analysis, it was proposed that as many as possible targeted populations for conservation be included.

Precision and accuracy of age estimates obtained from anal fin spines, dorsal fin spines, and sagittal otoliths for known-age largemouth bass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Zachary B.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bowen, Bryant R.; Quist, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Sagittal otoliths are the preferred aging structure for Micropterus spp. (black basses) in North America because of the accurate and precise results produced. Typically, fisheries managers are hesitant to use lethal aging techniques (e.g., otoliths) to age rare species, trophy-size fish, or when sampling in small impoundments where populations are small. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the precision and accuracy of 2 non-lethal aging structures (i.e., anal fin spines, dorsal fin spines) in comparison to that of sagittal otoliths from known-age Micropterus salmoides (Largemouth Bass; n = 87) collected from the Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, GA. Sagittal otoliths exhibited the highest concordance with true ages of all structures evaluated (coefficient of variation = 1.2; percent agreement = 91.9). Similarly, the low coefficient of variation (0.0) and high between-reader agreement (100%) indicate that age estimates obtained from sagittal otoliths were the most precise. Relatively high agreement between readers for anal fin spines (84%) and dorsal fin spines (81%) suggested the structures were relatively precise. However, age estimates from anal fin spines and dorsal fin spines exhibited low concordance with true ages. Although use of sagittal otoliths is a lethal technique, this method will likely remain the standard for aging Largemouth Bass and other similar black bass species.

THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF MONO-ABUNDANCE SUB-POPULATIONS OF THE MILKY WAY DISK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bovy, Jo; Rix, Hans-Walter; Liu Chao

2012-07-10

The spatial, kinematic, and elemental-abundance structure of the Milky Way's stellar disk is complex, and has been difficult to dissect with local spectroscopic or global photometric data. Here, we develop and apply a rigorous density modeling approach for Galactic spectroscopic surveys that enables investigation of the global spatial structure of stellar sub-populations in narrow bins of [{alpha}/Fe] and [Fe/H], using 23,767 G-type dwarfs from SDSS/SEGUE, which effectively sample 5 kpc < R{sub GC} < 12 kpc and 0.3 kpc {approx}< |Z| {approx}< 3 kpc. We fit models for the number density of each such ([{alpha}/Fe] and [Fe/H]) mono-abundance component, properlymore » accounting for the complex spectroscopic SEGUE sampling of the underlying stellar population, as well as for the metallicity and color distributions of the samples. We find that each mono-abundance sub-population has a simple spatial structure that can be described by a single exponential in both the vertical and radial directions, with continuously increasing scale heights ( Almost-Equal-To 200 pc to 1 kpc) and decreasing scale lengths (>4.5 kpc to 2 kpc) for increasingly older sub-populations, as indicated by their lower metallicities and [{alpha}/Fe] enhancements. That the abundance-selected sub-components with the largest scale heights have the shortest scale lengths is in sharp contrast with purely geometric 'thick-thin disk' decompositions. To the extent that [{alpha}/Fe] is an adequate proxy for age, our results directly show that older disk sub-populations are more centrally concentrated, which implies inside-out formation of galactic disks. The fact that the largest scale-height sub-components are most centrally concentrated in the Milky Way is an almost inevitable consequence of explaining the vertical structure of the disk through internal evolution. Whether the simple spatial structure of the mono-abundance sub-components and the striking correlations between age, scale length, and scale height can be plausibly explained by satellite accretion or other external heating remains to be seen.« less

Infant Brain Structures, Executive Function, and Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Problems at Preschool Age. A Prospective Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ghassabian, Akhgar; Herba, Catherine M.; Roza, Sabine J.; Govaert, Paul; Schenk, Jacqueline J.; Jaddoe, Vincent W.; Hofman, Albert; White, Tonya; Verhulst, Frank C.; Tiemeier, Henning

2013-01-01

Background: Neuroimaging findings have provided evidence for a relation between variations in brain structures and Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). However, longitudinal neuroimaging studies are typically confined to children who have already been diagnosed with ADHD. In a population-based study, we aimed to characterize the…

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Oli, Madan K

2006-04-01

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

77 FR 55456 - Marine Mammals; File No. 17410

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-10

... proposed research are to obtain information on population status and distribution, stock structure, age... occur world-wide. No live animal takes are being requested under this permit. The requested duration of...

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sub-national mapping of population pyramids and dependency ratios in Africa and Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pezzulo, Carla; Hornby, Graeme M.; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Linard, Catherine; Bird, Tomas J.; Kerr, David; Lloyd, Christopher T.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2017-07-01

The age group composition of populations varies substantially across continents and within countries, and is linked to levels of development, health status and poverty. The subnational variability in the shape of the population pyramid as well as the respective dependency ratio are reflective of the different levels of development of a country and are drivers for a country's economic prospects and health burdens. Whether measured as the ratio between those of working age and those young and old who are dependent upon them, or through separate young and old-age metrics, dependency ratios are often highly heterogeneous between and within countries. Assessments of subnational dependency ratio and age structure patterns have been undertaken for specific countries and across high income regions, but to a lesser extent across the low income regions. In the framework of the WorldPop Project, through the assembly of over 100 million records across 6,389 subnational administrative units, subnational dependency ratio and high resolution gridded age/sex group datasets were produced for 87 countries in Africa and Asia.

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies.

PubMed

Betti, M I; Wahl, L M; Zamir, M

2016-11-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of 'spring dwindle', which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past.

Social Status, Cognitive Ability, and Educational Attainment as Predictors of Liberal Social Attitudes and Political Trust

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoon, Ingrid; Cheng, Helen; Gale, Catharine R.; Batty, G. David; Deary, Ian J.

2010-01-01

We examined the prospective associations between family socio-economic background, childhood intelligence ("g") at age 11, educational and occupational attainment, and social attitudes at age 33 in a large (N = 8804), representative sample of the British population born in 1958. Structural equation Modeling identified a latent trait of…

Population genetic structure analysis and effect of inbreeding on body weights at different ages in Iranian Mehraban sheep.

PubMed

Yavarifard, Roya; Ghavi Hossein-Zadeh, Navid; Shadparvar, Abdol Ahad

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to describe the population structure and inbreeding, and to quantify their effects on weights at different ages of Mehraban sheep in Iran. The analysis was based on the pedigree information of 26990 animals and 10278 body weight records from birth to yearling age. Data and pedigree information were collected during 1994 to 2011 by the breeding station of Mehraban sheep. The population structure was analyzed using the CFC program. Inbreeding of all animals was calculated by INBUPGF90 program. All animals were grouped into three classes according to their inbreeding coefficients: the first class included non-inbred animals (F=0); and the second and third classes included inbred animals (0

[A population survey of the Yi nationality in Meigu County, Sichuan Province].

PubMed

Wang, D; Zhang, G

1984-01-29

In 1980, 95.35% of the 129,819 inhabitants of Meigu County in Faxin District of the Jinshan Yi autonomous district, Sichuan Province, were of Yi nationality. Agriculture is the primary mode of production and animal husbandry is an important secondary industry. Prior to Liberation, slavery was an integral part of Yi society. The standard of living was low, mortality high, and population growth slow. After Liberation from 1956-1980, the population grew 47.1%, 90% of which was a natural increase. The primary reason for the growth was a post-1960s annual average birth rate of 46/1000 and a mortality rate that fell from 35/1000 before Liberation to 13.3/1000 in 1976. The age structure also became younger. The average age in 1964 was 24 years, with a median age of 21.8 years, as compared to a 1980 average age of 23.8 years and a median age of 17 years. 47.2% of the population were aged from birth to 14 years; 2.9% were over 65 years. At the same time, 28% of the female population were of childbearing age. By 2000 Meigu County's population will reach 259,000. Although the primary reasons for the relatively rapid population increase are due to the destruction of the slave system and a higher standard of living, factors peculiar to Yi society are also significant: 1) the destruction of the slave system permitted the population to grow without the restraints of strict codes of class stratification; 2) the high value placed on having many offsprings, and of favoring male children still prevails; 3) the attitude of early marriage and the custom of widows marrying a relative of her deceased husband still prevail; 4) and infant mortality and the mortality rate of fertile women have declined. Elements which influence the population development of Meigu County include economic factors such as the need to support the old and the young, or the inability to produce enough food to keep up with the needs of an expanding population.

The prognosis and incidence of social phobia in an elderly population. A 5-year follow-up.

PubMed

Karlsson, B; Sigström, R; Waern, M; Ostling, S; Gustafson, D; Skoog, I

2010-07-01

To examine the prognosis and incidence of social fears and phobia in an elderly population sample followed for 5 years. A general population sample (N = 612) of non-demented men (baseline age 70) and women (baseline age 70 and 78-86) was investigated in 2000-2001 and in 2005-2006 with semi-structured psychiatric examinations including the Comprehensive Psychopathological Rating Scale, and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. Social phobia was diagnosed according to the DSM-IV criteria. Among nine individuals with DSM-IV social phobia in 2000, 5 (55.6%) had no social fears in 2005, and 1 (11.1%) still met the criteria for DSM-IV social phobia. Among individuals without DSM-IV social phobia in 2000 (N = 603), 12 (2.0%) had DSM-IV social phobia in 2005. These findings challenge the notion that social phobia is a chronic disorder with rare occurrence in old age.

An update on aging and dementia in Chile

PubMed Central

Fuentes, Patricio; Albala, Cecilia

2014-01-01

Chile is in an advanced demographic transition stage with the population over 60 years of age representing 15% of the total population and whose number of elderly has more than doubled between 1990 and 2014. Rapid economic advancement has promoted significant changes in social organization to which the country is not accustomed. The mental health problems of the elderly are particularly challenging to the country's present social and health structures. The prevalence of dementia in people over 60 years exceeds 8% and is even higher in the rural population. There is more training on dementia in the local medical and scientific community, increased awareness within the civilian community but insufficient responsiveness from the state to the broad diagnostic and therapeutic requirements of patients and caregivers. The objective of the present study was to provide an update of the information on dementia in the context of the ageing process in Chile. PMID:29213920

Radiographic evaluation of anatomical variables in maxilla and mandible in relation to dental implant placement.

PubMed

Chandra, Poornima; Govindaraju, Poornima; Chowdhary, Ramesh

2016-01-01

Oral rehabilitation using implants is rapidly replacing tooth supported prostheses. The success of implants is largely dependent on the quality and quantity of alveolar bone. In this study, we assessed the location of limiting anatomical structures and the amount of alveolar bone available for implant placement. Six hundred digital panoramic radiographs (300 males and 300 females) of dentate patients aged between 15-60 years were selected from the archives. The radiographs were subdivided into 3 groups with age interval of 15 years. Then the location of mental foramen, anterior loop, mandibular canal and maxillary sinus was determined. The amount of bone available was measured in both maxilla and mandible in the premolar and molar regions. The mental foramen was most commonly located at the apex of the second premolar in both the genders. The anterior loop was more readily visible in the younger age group. The amount of bone available in the premolar and molar region of the mandible is nearly the same, while more bone is available in the premolar region of the maxilla. The location and morphology of anatomical structures of the jaws vary not only in different populations but also within the same population. The amount of bone available also showed variations in the same population and in the same individual on the right and left sides. The limiting anatomical structures govern the amount of bone available for possible implant placement.

Estimation of the Population Susceptibility Against Measles in Slovakia.

PubMed

Zibolenová, Jana; Chladná, Zuzana; Švihrová, Viera; Baška, Tibor; Waczulíková, Iveta; Hudečková, Henrieta

2017-03-01

In Slovakia, thanks to a highly effective vaccination programme, no domestic cases of measles have been reported since 1999. However, there are several outbreaks of measles currently hitting some countries in Europe. Difficulties in reaching the goal of measles elimination make it necessary to monitor the status of the population susceptibility to prevent similar outbreaks in the future. We hypothesize that immunity wanes overtime, which can substantially impact the population susceptibility. This work introduces a model that estimates a proportion of individuals susceptible to measles in the Slovak population in 2015. Our analysis is based on an age-cohort model that incorporates waning immunity, vaccination schedule and changes in demographic structure. The inputs of the model are data on the vaccination coverage, last seroprevalence survey in 2002 and age structure of the population. In a short-term horizon, waning immunity does not affect the estimated proportion of the susceptible population. However, in a long-term horizon, the antibody titers can fall below the level of protection, which would result in a substantial transfer of initially immune individuals to the compartment of the susceptible ones. Incorporating of waning immunity in the cohort model has indicated that the most susceptible cohorts are not-vaccinated youngest children and cohorts born between 1969 and 1986. Applying the model to the current situation shows that people aged 30-45 years and unvaccinated infants represent the most susceptible groups. Model partially replaces missing seroprevalence survey, but, because the parameters of model and phenomenon of waning immunity are not exactly known, we suggest reintroducing the regular national serosurveys in order to empirically determine the level of susceptibility for measles in Slovakia. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Comparison of the precision of age estimates generated from fin rays, scales, and otoliths of Blue Sucker

USGS Publications Warehouse

Acre, Matthew R.; Alejandrez, Celeste; East, Jessica; Massure, Wade A.; Miyazono, S.; Pease, Jessica E.; Roesler, Elizabeth L.; Williams, H.M.; Grabowski, Timothy B.

2017-01-01

Evaluating the precision of age estimates generated by different readers and different calcified structures is an important part of generating reliable estimations of growth, recruitment, and mortality for fish populations. Understanding the potential loss of precision associated with using structures harvested without sacrificing individuals, such as scales or fin rays, is particularly important when working with imperiled species, such as Cycleptus elongatus (Blue Sucker). We collected otoliths (lapilli), scales, and the first fin rays of the dorsal, anal, pelvic, and pectoral fins of 9 Blue Suckers. We generated age estimates from each structure by both experienced (n = 5) and novice (n = 4) readers. We found that, independent of the structure used to generate the age estimates, the mean coefficient of variation (CV) of experienced readers was approximately 29% lower than that of novice readers. Further, the mean CV of age estimates generated from pectoral-fin rays, pelvic-fin rays, and scales were statistically indistinguishable and less than those of dorsal-fin rays, anal-fin rays, and otoliths. Anal-, dorsal-, and pelvic-fin rays and scales underestimated age compared to otoliths, but age estimates from pectoral-fin rays were comparable to those from otoliths. Skill level, structure, and fish total-length influenced reader precision between subsequent reads of the same aging structure from a particular fish. Using structures that can be harvested non-lethally to estimate the age of Blue Sucker can provide reliable and reproducible results, similar to those that would be expected from using otoliths. Therefore, we recommend the use of pectoral-fin rays as a non-lethal method to obtain age estimates for Blue Suckers.

Erythritol and Lufenuron detrimentally alter age structure of Wild Spotted Wing Drosophila (SWD) Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae) populations in blueberry and blackberry

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We report on the efficacy of 0.5 M (61,000 ppm) Erythritol (E) in Truvia Baking Blend®, 10 ppm Lufenuron (L), and their combination (LE) to reduce egg and larval densities of wild populations of spotted wing Drosophila, Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura) (SWD) infesting fields of rabbiteye blueberries (...

Population structure and the evolution of sexual size dimorphism and sex ratios in an insular population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodd, C.K.

1997-01-01

Hypotheses in the chelonian literature suggest that in species with sexual size dimorphism, the smaller sex will mature at a smaller size and a younger age than the larger sex, sex ratios should be biased in favor of the earlier maturing sex, and deviations from a 1:1 sex ratio result from maturation of the smaller sex at a younger age. I tested these hypotheses using data collected from 1991 to 1995 on an insular (Egmont Key) population of Florida box turtles, Terrapene carolina bauri. Contrary to predictions, the earlier maturing sex (males) grew to larger sizes than the late maturing sex. Males were significantly larger than females in mean carapace length but not mean body mass. Sex ratios were not balanced, favoring the earlier maturing sex (1.6 males:1 female), but the sex-ratio imbalance did not result from faster maturation of the smaller sex. The imbalance in the sex ratio in Egmont Key's box turtles is not the result of sampling biases; it may result from nest placement. Size-class structure and sex ratios can provide valuable insights into the status and trends of populations of long-lived turtles.

Age, differential growth and mortality rates in unexploited populations of Florida gar, an apex predator in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murie, D.J.; Parkyn, D.C.; Nico, L.G.; Herod, J.J.; Loftus, W.F.

2009-01-01

Florida gar, Lepisosteus platyrhincus DeKay, were sampled in two canal systems in south Florida during 2000-2001 to estimate age, growth and mortality as part of the Everglades ecosystem-restoration effort. Tamiami (C-4) and L-31W canal systems had direct connections to natural wetlands of the Everglades and harboured large Florida gar populations. Of 476 fish aged, maximum ages were 19 and 10years for females and males, respectively. Maximum sizes were also larger for females compared with males (817 vs 602 mm total length). Overall, female Florida gar from both Tamiami and L-31W were larger at age than males from L-31W that, in turn, were larger at any given age than males from Tamiami. Females also had lower rates of annual mortality (Z = 0.21) than males from L-31W (Z = 0.31) or males from Tamiami (Z = 0.54). As a large and long-lived apex predator in the Everglades, Florida gar may structure lower trophic levels. Regional- and sex-specific population parameters for Florida gar will contribute to the simulation models designed to evaluate Everglades restoration alternatives. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Population genomics of Bronze Age Eurasia.

PubMed

Allentoft, Morten E; Sikora, Martin; Sjögren, Karl-Göran; Rasmussen, Simon; Rasmussen, Morten; Stenderup, Jesper; Damgaard, Peter B; Schroeder, Hannes; Ahlström, Torbjörn; Vinner, Lasse; Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Margaryan, Ashot; Higham, Tom; Chivall, David; Lynnerup, Niels; Harvig, Lise; Baron, Justyna; Della Casa, Philippe; Dąbrowski, Paweł; Duffy, Paul R; Ebel, Alexander V; Epimakhov, Andrey; Frei, Karin; Furmanek, Mirosław; Gralak, Tomasz; Gromov, Andrey; Gronkiewicz, Stanisław; Grupe, Gisela; Hajdu, Tamás; Jarysz, Radosław; Khartanovich, Valeri; Khokhlov, Alexandr; Kiss, Viktória; Kolář, Jan; Kriiska, Aivar; Lasak, Irena; Longhi, Cristina; McGlynn, George; Merkevicius, Algimantas; Merkyte, Inga; Metspalu, Mait; Mkrtchyan, Ruzan; Moiseyev, Vyacheslav; Paja, László; Pálfi, György; Pokutta, Dalia; Pospieszny, Łukasz; Price, T Douglas; Saag, Lehti; Sablin, Mikhail; Shishlina, Natalia; Smrčka, Václav; Soenov, Vasilii I; Szeverényi, Vajk; Tóth, Gusztáv; Trifanova, Synaru V; Varul, Liivi; Vicze, Magdolna; Yepiskoposyan, Levon; Zhitenev, Vladislav; Orlando, Ludovic; Sicheritz-Pontén, Thomas; Brunak, Søren; Nielsen, Rasmus; Kristiansen, Kristian; Willerslev, Eske

2015-06-11

The Bronze Age of Eurasia (around 3000-1000 BC) was a period of major cultural changes. However, there is debate about whether these changes resulted from the circulation of ideas or from human migrations, potentially also facilitating the spread of languages and certain phenotypic traits. We investigated this by using new, improved methods to sequence low-coverage genomes from 101 ancient humans from across Eurasia. We show that the Bronze Age was a highly dynamic period involving large-scale population migrations and replacements, responsible for shaping major parts of present-day demographic structure in both Europe and Asia. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesized spread of Indo-European languages during the Early Bronze Age. We also demonstrate that light skin pigmentation in Europeans was already present at high frequency in the Bronze Age, but not lactose tolerance, indicating a more recent onset of positive selection on lactose tolerance than previously thought.

Age-class structure and variability of two populations of the bluemask darter etheostoma (Doration) sp.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simmons, J.W.; Layzer, J.B.; Smith, D.D.

2008-01-01

The bluemask darter Etheostoma (Doration) sp. is an endangered fish endemic to the upper Caney Fork system in the Cumberland River drainage in central Tennessee. Darters (Etheostoma spp.) are typically short-lived and exhibit rapid growth that quickly decreases with age. Consequently, estimating age of darters from length-frequency distributions can be difficult and subjective. We used a nonparametric kernel density estimator to reduce subjectivity in estimating ages of bluemask darters. Data were collected from a total of 2926 bluemask darters from the Collins River throughout three growing seasons. Additionally, data were collected from 842 bluemask darters from the Rocky River during one growing season. Analysis of length-frequencies indicated the presence of four age classes in both rivers. In each river, the majority of the population was comprised of fish 0.05). In both rivers, females were more abundant than males.

Incidence and outcome of epilepsy syndromes with onset in the first year of life: A retrospective population-based study.

PubMed

Gaily, Eija; Lommi, Markus; Lapatto, Risto; Lehesjoki, Anna-Elina

2016-10-01

Population-based studies on infantile epilepsy syndromes are scarce. Our aim was to provide syndrome-specific data on the incidence and outcome of epilepsy in a population-based cohort of infants with epilepsy onset in the first year. Included were all infants born in 1997 through 2006 whose epileptic seizures started before 12 months of age and who were residents of the Helsinki University Hospital district at the time of seizure onset. Patients were ascertained from hospital statistics, and all patient charts were reviewed. A reevaluation of the epilepsy syndromes, age at onset, etiology, and outcome at 24 months of age was based on data abstracted from the patient files. Inclusion criteria were fulfilled by 158 infants, of whom 92% were followed until age 24 months or death. The incidence of epilepsy in the first year was 124 of 100,000. An epilepsy syndrome recognized by the revised organization of epilepsies by ILAE was identified in 58% of the patients. The most common syndromes were West syndrome (41/100,000) and benign familial or nonfamilial infantile epilepsy (22/100,000). Etiology was structural-metabolic in 35%, genetic in 17%, and unknown in 48%. Early age at onset was associated with structural-metabolic etiology. Seven infants (4.4%) died before age 2 years. One infant with an SCN2A mutation died of sudden unexplained death in epilepsy (SUDEP). At 24 months, 58% of all children included in the cohort were seizure-free, and 46% had both seizure freedom and age-appropriate cognitive development. Age at onset was not associated with outcome when etiology was controlled for. Benign familial and nonfamilial infantile epilepsy appears to be more common than previously suggested, second only to West syndrome. Early age at onset is not an independent risk factor for poor outcome. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International League Against Epilepsy.

Population norms for the EQ-5D-3L: a cross-country analysis of population surveys for 20 countries.

PubMed

Janssen, M F; Szende, A; Cabases, J; Ramos-Goñi, J M; Vilagut, G; König, H H

2018-02-14

This study provides EQ-5D population norms for 20 countries (N = 163,838), which can be used to compare profiles for patients with specific conditions with data for the average person in the general population in a similar age and/or gender group. Descriptive EQ-5D data are provided for the total population, by gender and by seven age groups. Provided index values are based on European VAS for all countries, based on TTO for 11 countries and based on VAS for 10 countries. Important differences exist in EQ-5D reported health status across countries after standardizing for population structure. Self-reported health according to all five dimensions and EQ VAS generally decreased with increasing age and was lower for females. Mean self-rated EQ VAS scores varied from 70.4 to 83.3 in the total population by country. The prior living standards (GDP per capita) in the countries studied are correlated most with the EQ VAS scores (0.58), while unemployment appeared to be significantly correlated in people over the age of 45 only. A country's expenditure on health care correlated moderately with higher ratings on the EQ VAS (0.55). EQ-5D norms can be used as reference data to assess the burden of disease of patients with specific conditions. Such information, in turn, can inform policy-making and assist in setting priorities in health care.

Life-history and habitat features influence the within-river genetic structure of Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Vähä, Juha-Pekka; Erkinaro, Jaakko; Niemelä, Eero; Primmer, Craig R

2007-07-01

Defining populations and identifying ecological and life-history characteristics affecting genetic structure is important for understanding species biology and hence, for managing threatened or endangered species or populations. In this study, populations of the world's largest indigenous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stock were first inferred using model-based clustering methods, following which life-history and habitat variables best predicting the genetic diversity of populations were identified. This study revealed that natal homing of Atlantic salmon within the Teno River system is accurate at least to the tributary level. Generally, defining populations by main tributaries was observed to be a reasonable approach in this large river system, whereas in the mainstem of the river, the number of inferred populations was fewer than the number of distinct sampling sites. Mainstem and headwater populations were genetically more diverse and less diverged, while each tributary fostered a distinct population with high genetic differentiation and lower genetic diversity. Population structure and variation in genetic diversity among populations were poorly explained by geographical distance. In contrast, age-structure, as estimated by the proportion of multisea-winter spawners, was the most predictive variable in explaining the variation in the genetic diversity of the populations. This observation, being in agreement with theoretical predictions, emphasizes the essence of large multisea-winter females in maintaining the genetic diversity of populations. In addition, the unique genetic diversity of populations, as estimated by private allele richness, was affected by the ease of accessibility of a site, with more difficult to access sites having lower unique genetic diversity. Our results show that despite this species' high capacity for migration, tributaries foster relatively closed populations with little gene flow which will be important to consider when developing management strategies for the system.

The Dress: Transforming a web viral event into a scientific survey.

PubMed

Moccia, Marcello; Lavorgna, Luigi; Lanzillo, Roberta; Brescia Morra, Vincenzo; Tedeschi, Gioacchino; Bonavita, Simona

2016-05-01

The Dress picture recently has become a hot topic on the Internet, prompting a debate whether it was black and blue, or white and gold. To investigate The Dress color perception in both multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, characterized by frequent visual system impairment with ensuing color vision effects, and general population. We developed a questionnaire to record demographics, clinical features, and The Dress color perception, posted on general and MS-specific social networks. No statistically significant differences were observed in The Dress color perception between MS patients (n=103) and general population (n=441). Furthermore, white and gold color perception was positively associated with aging in the general population (p=0.04), whereas negatively associated with progressive course (p=0.03) and longer disease duration (p<0.001) in MS patients, independently from patients' age. The Dress black and blue or white and gold perception might be due to aging in the general population, whereas black and blue perception, despite of aging, might suggest a specific effect of the MS burden (i.e. disease duration and progression) on the visual structures specifically involved in the white and gold perception. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting unintentional harvesting selectivity in a monomorphic species.

PubMed

Bunnefeld, Nils; Baines, David; Newborn, David; Milner-Gulland, E J

2009-03-01

1. Changes in the abundance of populations have always perplexed ecologists but long-term studies are revealing new insights into population dynamic processes. Long-term data are often derived from harvest records although many wild populations face high harvesting pressures leading to overharvesting and extinction. Additionally, harvest records used to describe population processes such as fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success often assume a random off-take. 2. Selective harvesting based on phenotypic characteristics occurs in many species (e.g. trophy hunting, fisheries) and has important implications for population dynamics, conservation and management. 3. In species with no marked morphological differences between the age and sex classes, such as the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus during the shooting season, hunters cannot consciously select for a specific sex or age class during the shooting process but harvest records could still give a biased reflection of the population structure because of differences in behaviour between age and sex classes. 4. This study compared age and sex ratios in the bag with those in the population before shooting for red grouse at different points in the shooting season and different densities, which has rarely been tested before. 5. More young than old grouse were shot at large bag sizes and vice versa for small bag sizes than would be expected from the population composition before shooting. The susceptibility of old males to shooting compared to females increased with bag size and was high at the first time the area was shot but decreased with the number of times an area was harvested. 6. These findings stress that the assumption made in many studies that harvest records reflect the age and sex ratio of the population and therefore reflect productivity can be misleading. 7. In this paper, as in the literature, it is also shown that number of grouse shot reflects grouse density and therefore that hunting selectivity might influence population dynamics in a cyclic species. 8. The study is not only relevant for red grouse but applies to systems showing interactions between selective harvesting and wider ecological processes, such as age- and sex-related parasitism and territoriality, which may drive population fluctuations.

Prevalence of ageing-associated cognitive decline in an elderly population.

PubMed

Hanninen, T; Koivisto, K; Reinikainen, K J; Helkala, E L; Soininen, H; Mykkänen, L; Laakso, M; Riekkinen, P J

1996-05-01

Different diagnostic definitions have been proposed for use in the characterization of mild cognitive disorders associated with ageing. Previously, we reported a high (38.4%) prevalence of age-associated memory impairment (AAMI) using the National Institute of Mental Health criteria in an elderly population. Recently, a work group of the International Psychogeriatric Association proposed criteria for 'ageing-associated cognitive decline' (AACD). The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of AACD in an elderly population. We examined 403 randomly selected subjects (68-78 years of age) with tests of memory, cognitive processing, attention, verbal and visuoconstructive functions and with a structured questionnaire for health status and subjective complaints of cognitive decline. In all, 26.6% of the subjects (24.4% of women, 30. 1% or men) fulfilled the AACD criteria. The prevalence was slightly related to age and education. The rate was lowest in the oldest age of 75 - 78 years (20.5%) and highest in the age of 71 -74 years (30%). Subjects with less than 4 years of education had the lowest (14.3%) and subjects with more than 6 years of education had the highest rate (29.4%) for AACD. However, the differences between these subgroups were not statistically significant. These results suggest that the prevalence of AACD is lower than that of AAMI. As AAMI tends to identify a very heterogeneous subject group, the AACD diagnosis, which takes into account age and education specific norms in its inclusion criteria, might prove superior to AAMI in differentiating a meaningful subgroup from an elderly population both for research purposes and in clinical settings.

Family Structure, Parental Investment, and Educational Outcomes among Black South Africans. Population Studies Center Research Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Kermyt G.

This study examined the relationship between family structure, expenditures on education, and children's educational outcomes for black South Africans, using the nationally representative 1995 October Household Survey. The analyses focused on 28,215 individuals, ages 10 to 24 years, who had not completed secondary schools. The findings indicated…

Structure of the microfilarial reservoir of Loa loa in the human host and its implications for monitoring the progr,ammes of Community-Directed Treatment with Ivermectin carried out in Africa.

PubMed

Pion, D S S; Gardon, J; Kamgno, J; Gardon-Wendel, N; Chippaux, J P; Boussinesq, M

2004-11-01

This paper describes the structure of the microfilarial reservoir of Loa loa in an endemic population of central Cameroon. The possible effects of age and sex on the prevalence and intensity of microfilaraemia have been explored. Logistic analysis showed that the prevalence of microfilaraemia increased significantly with age, reaching 60 % in the oldest males. This result suggests that the figure commonly reported, according to which only one third of the infected individuals were microfilaraemic, should be reconsidered; in addition, as part of surveys of loiasis, crude microfilaraemia prevalence values should be replaced by adjusted ones. The intensity of infection did not show any age-specific change. As a result, even if the oldest members of the male population are clearly the most at risk of developing post-ivermectin serious adverse reactions, especially Loa-encephalopathy, the other members of the population are not risk-free. Therefore, in those areas where the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control is undertaking regular mass distributions of ivermectin for onchocerciasis control, and where loiasis is co-endemic, no subpopulation should be excluded from surveillance and monitoring during community directed treatments with ivermectin.

Artificial barriers prevent genetic recovery of small isolated populations of a low-mobility freshwater fish.

PubMed

Coleman, R A; Gauffre, B; Pavlova, A; Beheregaray, L B; Kearns, J; Lyon, J; Sasaki, M; Leblois, R; Sgro, C; Sunnucks, P

2018-06-01

Habitat loss and fragmentation often result in small, isolated populations vulnerable to environmental disturbance and loss of genetic diversity. Low genetic diversity can increase extinction risk of small populations by elevating inbreeding and inbreeding depression, and reducing adaptive potential. Due to their linear nature and extensive use by humans, freshwater ecosystems are especially vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Although the effects of fragmentation on genetic structure have been extensively studied in migratory fishes, they are less understood in low-mobility species. We estimated impacts of instream barriers on genetic structure and diversity of the low-mobility river blackfish (Gadopsis marmoratus) within five streams separated by weirs or dams constructed 45-120 years ago. We found evidence of small-scale (<13 km) genetic structure within reaches unimpeded by barriers, as expected for a fish with low mobility. Genetic diversity was lower above barriers in small streams only, regardless of barrier age. In particular, one isolated population showed evidence of a recent bottleneck and inbreeding. Differentiation above and below the barrier (F ST  = 0.13) was greatest in this stream, but in other streams did not differ from background levels. Spatially explicit simulations suggest that short-term barrier effects would not be detected with our data set unless effective population sizes were very small (<100). Our study highlights that, in structured populations, the ability to detect short-term genetic effects from barriers is reduced and requires more genetic markers compared to panmictic populations. We also demonstrate the importance of accounting for natural population genetic structure in fragmentation studies.

On the probabilistic structure of water age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-05-01

The age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it can be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. We illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.

The German Version of the Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire: Psychometric Properties, Measurement Invariance, and Population-Based Norms

PubMed Central

Hilbert, Anja; de Zwaan, Martina; Braehler, Elmar; Kersting, Anette

2016-01-01

The Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire is an internationally widely used instrument assessing different eating styles that may contribute to weight gain and overweight: emotional eating, external eating, and restraint. This study aimed to evaluate the psychometric properties of the 30-item German version of the DEBQ including its measurement invariance across gender, age, and BMI-status in a representative German population sample. Furthermore, we examined the distribution of eating styles in the general population and provide population-based norms for DEBQ scales. A representative sample of the German general population (N = 2513, age ≥ 14 years) was assessed with the German version of the DEBQ along with information on sociodemographic characteristics and body weight and height. The German version of the DEQB demonstrates good item characteristics and reliability (restraint: α = .92, emotional eating: α = .94, external eating: α = .89). The 3-factor structure of the DEBQ could be replicated in exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses and results of multi-group confirmatory factor analyses supported its metric and scalar measurement invariance across gender, age, and BMI-status. External eating was the most prevalent eating style in the German general population. Women scored higher on emotional and restrained eating scales than men, and overweight individuals scored higher in all three eating styles compared to normal weight individuals. Small differences across age were found for external eating. Norms were provided according to gender, age, and BMI-status. Our findings suggest that the German version of the DEBQ has good reliability and construct validity, and is suitable to reliably measure eating styles across age, gender, and BMI-status. Furthermore, the results demonstrate a considerable variation of eating styles across gender and BMI-status. PMID:27656879

The German Version of the Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire: Psychometric Properties, Measurement Invariance, and Population-Based Norms.

PubMed

Nagl, Michaela; Hilbert, Anja; de Zwaan, Martina; Braehler, Elmar; Kersting, Anette

The Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire is an internationally widely used instrument assessing different eating styles that may contribute to weight gain and overweight: emotional eating, external eating, and restraint. This study aimed to evaluate the psychometric properties of the 30-item German version of the DEBQ including its measurement invariance across gender, age, and BMI-status in a representative German population sample. Furthermore, we examined the distribution of eating styles in the general population and provide population-based norms for DEBQ scales. A representative sample of the German general population (N = 2513, age ≥ 14 years) was assessed with the German version of the DEBQ along with information on sociodemographic characteristics and body weight and height. The German version of the DEQB demonstrates good item characteristics and reliability (restraint: α = .92, emotional eating: α = .94, external eating: α = .89). The 3-factor structure of the DEBQ could be replicated in exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses and results of multi-group confirmatory factor analyses supported its metric and scalar measurement invariance across gender, age, and BMI-status. External eating was the most prevalent eating style in the German general population. Women scored higher on emotional and restrained eating scales than men, and overweight individuals scored higher in all three eating styles compared to normal weight individuals. Small differences across age were found for external eating. Norms were provided according to gender, age, and BMI-status. Our findings suggest that the German version of the DEBQ has good reliability and construct validity, and is suitable to reliably measure eating styles across age, gender, and BMI-status. Furthermore, the results demonstrate a considerable variation of eating styles across gender and BMI-status.

Genome-wide SNP analysis reveals a genetic basis for sea-age variation in a wild population of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

PubMed

Johnston, Susan E; Orell, Panu; Pritchard, Victoria L; Kent, Matthew P; Lien, Sigbjørn; Niemelä, Eero; Erkinaro, Jaakko; Primmer, Craig R

2014-07-01

Delaying sexual maturation can lead to larger body size and higher reproductive success, but carries an increased risk of death before reproducing. Classical life history theory predicts that trade-offs between reproductive success and survival should lead to the evolution of an optimal strategy in a given population. However, variation in mating strategies generally persists, and in general, there remains a poor understanding of genetic and physiological mechanisms underlying this variation. One extreme case of this is in the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), which can show variation in the age at which they return from their marine migration to spawn (i.e. their 'sea age'). This results in large size differences between strategies, with direct implications for individual fitness. Here, we used an Illumina Infinium SNP array to identify regions of the genome associated with variation in sea age in a large population of Atlantic salmon in Northern Europe, implementing individual-based genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and population-based FST outlier analyses. We identified several regions of the genome which vary in association with phenotype and/or selection between sea ages, with nearby genes having functions related to muscle development, metabolism, immune response and mate choice. In addition, we found that individuals of different sea ages belong to different, yet sympatric populations in this system, indicating that reproductive isolation may be driven by divergence between stable strategies. Overall, this study demonstrates how genome-wide methodologies can be integrated with samples collected from wild, structured populations to understand their ecology and evolution in a natural context. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire: The Self-Report Version in American Urban and Suburban Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruchkin, Vladislav; Jones, Stephanie; Vermeiren, Robert; Schwab-Stone, Mary

2008-01-01

This study examined the factor structure of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) in urban inner-city and suburban general population samples of American youth. The SDQ was administered to 4,661 predominantly minority urban youth (mean age = 13.0 years, SD = 2.02) and 937 predominantly Caucasian suburban youth (mean age = 14.0 years,…

Using demographic characteristics of populations to detect spatial fragmentation following suspected ebola outbreaks in great apes.

PubMed

Genton, Céline; Cristescu, Romane; Gatti, Sylvain; Levréro, Florence; Bigot, Elodie; Motsch, Peggy; Le Gouar, Pascaline; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Ménard, Nelly

2017-09-01

Demographic crashes due to emerging diseases can contribute to population fragmentation and increase extinction risk of small populations. Ebola outbreaks in 2002-2004 are suspected to have caused a decline of more than 80% in some Western lowland gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) populations. We investigated whether demographic indicators of this event allowed for the detection of spatial fragmentation in gorilla populations. We collected demographic data from two neighbouring populations: the Lokoué population, suspected to have been affected by an Ebola outbreak (followed from 2001 to 2014), and the Romani population, of unknown demographic status before Ebola outbreaks (followed from 2005 to 2014). Ten years after the outbreak, the Lokoué population is slowly recovering and the short-term demographic indicators of a population crash were no longer detectable. The Lokoué population has not experienced any additional demographic perturbation over the past decade. The Romani population did not show any of the demographic indicators of a population crash over the past decade. Its demographic structure remained similar to that of unaffected populations. Our results highlighted that the Ebola disease could contribute to fragmentation of gorilla populations due to the spatially heterogeneous impact of its outbreaks. The demographic structure of populations (i.e., age-sex and group structure) can be useful indicators of a possible occurrence of recent Ebola outbreaks in populations without known history, and may be more broadly used in other emerging disease/species systems. Longitudinal data are critical to our understanding of the impact of emerging diseases on wild populations and their conservation. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Validation of the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire-Brief Form in adolescents.

PubMed

Fonseca-Pedrero, Eduardo; Paíno-Piñeiro, Mercedes; Lemos-Giráldez, Serafín; Villazón-García, Ursula; Muñiz, José

2009-06-01

The main objective of the study was to validate the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire-Brief (SPQ-B) in a sample of non-clinical adolescents. In addition, the schizotypal personality structure and differences in the dimensions of schizotypy according to gender and age are analyzed. The sample comprises 1683 students, 818 males (48.6%), with a mean age of 15.9 years (SD=1.2). The results showed that the SPQ-B had adequate psychometric properties. Internal consistency of the subscales and total score ranged from 0.61 to 0.81. Confirmatory factor analyses indicated that the three-factor model (positive, negative, and disorganized) and the four-factor model (positive, paranoid, negative, and disorganized) fit reasonably well in comparison to the remaining models. With regard to gender and age, statistically significant differences were found due to age but not to gender. In line with previous literature, the results confirmed the multi-factor structure of the schizotypal personality in non-clinical adolescent populations. Future studies could use the SPQ-B as a screening self-report of rapid and efficient application for the detection of adolescents vulnerable to the development of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders in the general population, in genetically high-risk samples and in clinical studies.

Setup of a bone aging experimental model in the rabbit comparing changes in cortical and trabecular bone: Morphological and morphometric study in the femur.

PubMed

Pazzaglia, Ugo E; Sibilia, Valeria; Congiu, Terenzio; Pagani, Francesca; Ravanelli, Marco; Zarattini, Guido

2015-07-01

Bone aging was studied in an experimental model (rabbit femur) in three populations aged 0.5, 1.5, and 7.5 years. Cortical bone histology was compared with a data set from a 1.5-month-old population of an earlier published paper. From 0.5-year-old onward, the mean femur length did not increase further. Thereafter, the mean marrow area increased and the cortical area decreased significantly with aging. This was associated with a structural pattern transformation from plexiform to laminar and then Haversian-like type. The distal meta-epiphysis bone trabecular density of the oldest populations also was significantly lower in specific regions of interest (ROI). Percentage sealed primary vascular canals in laminar bone significantly increased with aging without variation of percentage sealed secondary osteons. Remodeling rate reflected by the density of cutting cones did not significantly change among the age populations. These data suggest that laminar bone vascular pattern is more functional in the fast diaphyseal expansion but not much streamlined with the renewal of blood flow during secondary remodeling. Bone aging was characterized by: 1) secondary remodeling subendosteally; 2) increment of sealed primary vascular canals number; 3) increased calcium content of the cortex; 4) cortical and trabecular bone mass loss in specific ROIs. Taken together, the present data may give a morphological and morphometric basis to perform comparative studies on experimental models of osteoporosis in the rabbit. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparative age and growth of common snook Centropomus undecimalis (Pisces: Centropomidae) from coastal and riverine areas in Southern Mexico.

PubMed

Perera-Garcia, Martha A; Mendoza-Carranza, Manuel; Contreras-Sánchez, Wilfrido; Ferrara, Allyse; Huerta-Ortiz, Maricela; Hernández-Gómez, Raúl E

2013-06-01

Common snook Centropomus unidecimalis is an important commercial and fishery species in Southern Mexico, however the high exploitation rates have resulted in a strong reduction of its abundances. Since, the information about its population structure is scarce, the objective of the present research was to determine and compare the age structure in four important fishery sites. For this, age and growth of common snook were determined from specimens collected monthly, from July 2006 to March 2008, from two coastal (Barra Bosque and Barra San Pedro) and two riverine (San Pedro and Tres Brazos) commercial fishery sites in Tabasco, Mexico. Age was determined using sectioned saggitae otoliths and data analyzed by von Bertalanffy and Levenberg-Marquardt among others. Estimated ages ranged from 2 to 17 years. Monthly patterns of marginal increment formation and the percentage of otoliths with opaque rings on the outer edge demonstrated that a single annulus was formed each year. The von Bertalanffy parameters were calculated for males and females using linear adjustment and the non-linear method of Levenberg-Marquardt. The von Bertalanffy growth equations were FLt = 109.21(1-e-0.2(t+0.57)) for Barra Bosque, FLt = 94.56(1-e-027(t+0.485)) for Barra San Pedro, FLt = 97.15(1-e 0.17(t + 1.32)) for San Pedro and FLt = 83.77(1-e-026(t + 0.49)) for Tres Brazos. According to (Hotelling's T2, p < 0.05) test growth was significantly greater for females than for males. Based on the Chen test, von Bertalanffy growth curves were different among the study sites (RSS, p < 0.05). Based on the observed differences in growth parameters among sampling sites (coastal and riverine environments) future research need to be conducted on migration and population genetics, in order to delineate the stock structure of this population and support management programs.

Early abnormalities of cardiovascular structure and function in middle-aged Korean adults with prehypertension: The Korean Genome Epidemiology study.

PubMed

Kim, Seong Hwan; Cho, Goo-Yeong; Baik, Inkyung; Lim, Sang Yup; Choi, Cheol Ung; Lim, Hong Euy; Kim, Eung Ju; Park, Chang Gyu; Park, Juri; Kim, Jinyoung; Shin, Chol

2011-02-01

Prehypertension is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, there are few population-based studies on the changes of cardiovascular structure and function that characterize prehypertension. The aim of this study was to assess whether prehypertension is associated with abnormalities of cardiovascular structure and function in the general Korean population. We analyzed the cross-sectional relationships between prehypertension and cardiovascular structure and function in a sample from the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study. A total of 1,671 individuals (54.5% women; mean age: 53 ± 6 years) without hypertension and diabetes mellitus were enrolled. Cardiovascular structure and function were assessed by conventional echocardiography, tissue Doppler imaging (TDI), carotid ultrasonography, and pulse wave velocity (PWV). The left ventricular (LV) mass index was significantly higher in subjects with prehypertension than in those with normotension (41 ± 8 g/m²·⁷ vs. 38 ± 7 g/m²·⁷, P < 0.001). LV diastolic parameters, such as the E/A ratio, TDI E(a) velocity, and E/E(a) ratio, were also impaired in subjects with prehypertension (all P < 0.001). Compared with normotension, prehypertension was characterized by a significantly higher common carotid artery intima-media thickness and a higher brachial-ankle PWV (all P < 0.001). These abnormalities of cardiovascular structure and function remained significant after adjustment for covariates. In this population-based cohort, we found that subtle alterations in cardiovascular structure and function were already present at the prehypertensive stage. Whether such subtle alterations convey an increased risk of cardiovascular events and whether the changes are reversible with treatment warrant further study.

Precision of four otolith techniques for estimating age of white perch from a thermally altered reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snow, Richard A.; Porta, Michael J.; Long, James M.

2018-01-01

The White Perch Morone americana is an invasive species in many Midwestern states and is widely distributed in reservoir systems, yet little is known about the species' age structure and population dynamics. White Perch were first observed in Sooner Reservoir, a thermally altered cooling reservoir in Oklahoma, by the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation in 2006. It is unknown how thermally altered systems like Sooner Reservoir may affect the precision of White Perch age estimates. Previous studies have found that age structures from Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides and Bluegills Lepomis macrochirus from thermally altered reservoirs had false annuli, which increased error when estimating ages. Our objective was to quantify the precision of White Perch age estimates using four sagittal otolith preparation techniques (whole, broken, browned, and stained). Because Sooner Reservoir is thermally altered, we also wanted to identify the best month to collect a White Perch age sample based on aging precision. Ages of 569 White Perch (20–308 mm TL) were estimated using the four techniques. Age estimates from broken, stained, and browned otoliths ranged from 0 to 8 years; whole‐view otolith age estimates ranged from 0 to 7 years. The lowest mean coefficient of variation (CV) was obtained using broken otoliths, whereas the highest CV was observed using browned otoliths. July was the most precise month (lowest mean CV) for estimating age of White Perch, whereas April was the least precise month (highest mean CV). These results underscore the importance of knowing the best method to prepare otoliths for achieving the most precise age estimates and the best time of year to obtain those samples, as these factors may affect other estimates of population dynamics.

The Issue of Age Estimation in a Modern Skeletal Population: Are Even the More Modern Current Aging Methods Satisfactory for the Elderly?

PubMed

Cappella, Annalisa; Cummaudo, Marco; Arrigoni, Elena; Collini, Federica; Cattaneo, Cristina

2017-01-01

The main idea behind age assessment in adults is related to the analysis of the physiological degeneration of particular skeletal structures with age. The main issues with these procedures are due to the fact that they have not been tested on different modern populations and in different taphonomic contexts and that they tend to underestimate the age of older individuals. The purpose of this study was to test the applicability and the reliability of these methods on a contemporary population of skeletal remains of 145 elderly individuals of known sex and age. The results show that, due to taphonomic influences, some skeletal sites showed a lower survival. Therefore, the methods with the highest percentage of applicability were Lovejoy (89.6%) and Rougé-Maillart (81.3%), followed by Suchey-Brooks (59.3%), and those with the lowest percentage of applicability were Beauthier (26.2%) and Iscan (22.7%). In addition, this research has shown how for older adults the study of both acetabulum and auricular surface may be more reliable for aging. This is also in accordance with the fact that auricular surface and the acetabulum are the areas more frequently surviving taphonomic insult. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

The role of gene flow in shaping genetic structures of the subtropical conifer species Araucaria angustifolia.

PubMed

Stefenon, V M; Gailing, O; Finkeldey, R

2008-05-01

The morphological features of pollen and seed of Araucaria angustifolia have led to the proposal of limited gene dispersal for this species. We used nuclear microsatellite and AFLP markers to assess patterns of genetic variation in six natural populations at the intra- and inter-population level, and related our findings to gene dispersal in this species. Estimates of both fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) and migration rate suggest relatively short-distance gene dispersal. However, gene dispersal differed among populations, and effects of more efficient dispersal within population were observed in at least one stand. In addition, even though some seed dispersal may be aggregated in this principally barochorous species, reasonable secondary seed dispersal, presumably facilitated by animals, and overlap of seed shadows within populations is suggested. Overall, no correlation was observed between levels of SGS and inbreeding, density or age structure, except that a higher level of SGS was revealed for the population with a higher number of juvenile individuals. A low estimate for the number of migrants per generation between two neighbouring populations implies limited gene flow. We expect that stepping-stone pollen flow may have contributed to low genetic differentiation among populations observed in a previous survey. Thus, strategies for maintenance of gene flow among remnant populations should be considered in order to avoid degrading effects of population fragmentation on the evolution of A. angustifolia.

Population Change as Related to Long-Term Cycles in Residential Construction in the United States.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-01

Research Paper Long-Term Cycles FPL 392 March 1 in Residential Construction in the United States , mllmill - -N ABSTRACT Major demographic changes have...ferent from what they are now. This paper analyzes the potential impact of changing population growth rates and the age structure of the population...United StatesPuiChangeDepartment of AgriculturePo ua inCng Forest Service Forest Lrouato as Related toP ductsLaboratory, Research Paper LongnTerm Cycles

Weather and age-gender effects on the projection of future emergency ambulance demand in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Ho-Ting

2015-03-01

An accurate projection for ambulance demand is essential to enable better resource planning for the future that strives to either maintain current levels of services or reconsider future standards and expectations. More than 2 million cases of emergency room attendance in 2008 were obtained from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority to project the demand for its ambulance services in 2036. The projection of ambulance demand in 2036 was computed in consideration of changes in the age-gender structure between 2008 and 2036. The quadratic relation between average daily temperature and daily ambulance demand in 2036 was further explored by including and excluding age-gender demographic changes. Without accounting for changes in the age-gender structure, the 2036 ambulance demand for age groups of 65 and above were consistently underestimated (by 38%-65%), whereas those of younger age groups were overestimated (by 6%-37%). Moreover, changes in the 2008 to 2036 age-gender structure also shift upward and emphasize relationships between average daily temperature and daily ambulance demand at both ends of the quadratic U-shaped curve. Our study reveals a potential societal implication of ageing population on the demand for ambulance services. © 2012 APJPH.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa Genotype Prevalence in Dutch Cystic Fibrosis Patients and Age Dependency of Colonization by Various P. aeruginosa Sequence Types ▿

PubMed Central

van Mansfeld, Rosa; Willems, Rob; Brimicombe, Roland; Heijerman, Harry; van Berkhout, Ferdinand Teding; Wolfs, Tom; van der Ent, Cornelis; Bonten, Marc

2009-01-01

The patient-to-patient transmission of highly prevalent Pseudomonas aeruginosa clones which are associated with enhanced disease progression has led to strict segregation policies for cystic fibrosis (CF) patients in many countries. However, little is known about the population structure of P. aeruginosa among CF patients. The aim of the present cross-sectional study was to determine the prevalence and genetic relatedness of P. aeruginosa isolates from CF patients who visited two major CF centers in The Netherlands in 2007 and 2008. These patients represented 45% of the Dutch CF population. P. aeruginosa carriage in the respiratory tract was determined by standard microbiological culture techniques, and all phenotypically different isolates in the first specimens recovered in 2007 and 2008 were genotyped by multilocus sequence typing. A total of 313 (57%) of 551 patients whose samples were cultured carried P. aeruginosa. Two sequence types (STs), ST406 and ST497, were found in 15% and 5% of the patients, respectively, and 60% of the patients harbored a strain that was also found in at least two other patients. The risk ratios for carrying ST406 and ST497 were 17.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2 to 43.6) for those aged between 15 and 24 years and 6 (95% CI, 1.4 to 26.1) for those aged >25 years. ST406 and ST497 were not genetically linked to previously described epidemic clones, which were also not found in this CF population. The population structure of P. aeruginosa in Dutch CF patients is characterized by the presence of two prevalent STs that are associated with certain age groups and that are not genetically linked to previously described epidemic clones. PMID:19828746

The Cuban Population of the United States: The Results of the 1980 U.S. Census of Population. Occasional Papers Series, Dialogues #40.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perez, Lisandro

The principal results of the 1980 United States Census regarding Cuban Americans are summarized and analyzed in this report. The presentation is divided into the following sections: (1) residence and geographic distribution; (2) age and sex composition; (3) fertility; (4) family structure and marital status; (5) educational characteristics; (6)…

Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Longevity and Differential Emergence of Dengue Fever in Two Cities in Sonora, Mexico.

PubMed

Ernst, Kacey C; Walker, Kathleen R; Reyes-Castro, Pablo; Joy, Teresa K; Castro-Luque, A Lucia; Diaz-Caravantes, Rolando E; Gameros, Mercedes; Haenchen, Steven; Hayden, Mary H; Monaghan, Andrew; Jeffrey-Guttierez, Eileen; Carrière, Yves; Riehle, Michael R

2017-01-01

Dengue virus, primarily transmitted by the Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito, has rapidly expanded in geographic extent over the past several decades. In some areas, however, dengue fever has not emerged despite established Ae. aegypti populations. The reasons for this are unclear and have sometimes been attributed to socio-economic differences. In 2013 we compared Ae. aegypti adult density and population age structure between two cities in Sonora, Mexico: Hermosillo, which has regular seasonal dengue virus transmission, and Nogales, which has minimal transmission. Larval and pupal abundance was greater in Nogales, and adult density was only higher in Hermosillo during September. Population age structure, however, was consistently older in Hermosillo. This difference in longevity may have been one factor that limited dengue virus transmission in Nogales in 2013, as a smaller proportion of Ae. aegypti females survived past the extrinsic incubation period. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Cassirer, E Frances; Plowright, Raina K; Manlove, Kezia R; Cross, Paul C; Dobson, Andrew P; Potter, Kathleen A; Hudson, Peter J

2013-05-01

1. Bighorn sheep mortality related to pneumonia is a primary factor limiting population recovery across western North America, but management has been constrained by an incomplete understanding of the disease. We analysed patterns of pneumonia-caused mortality over 14 years in 16 interconnected bighorn sheep populations to gain insights into underlying disease processes. 2. We observed four age-structured classes of annual pneumonia mortality patterns: all-age, lamb-only, secondary all-age and adult-only. Although there was considerable variability within classes, overall they differed in persistence within and impact on populations. Years with pneumonia-induced mortality occurring simultaneously across age classes (i.e. all-age) appeared to be a consequence of pathogen invasion into a naïve population and resulted in immediate population declines. Subsequently, low recruitment due to frequent high mortality outbreaks in lambs, probably due to association with chronically infected ewes, posed a significant obstacle to population recovery. Secondary all-age events occurred in previously exposed populations when outbreaks in lambs were followed by lower rates of pneumonia-induced mortality in adults. Infrequent pneumonia events restricted to adults were usually of short duration with low mortality. 3. Acute pneumonia-induced mortality in adults was concentrated in fall and early winter around the breeding season when rams are more mobile and the sexes commingle. In contrast, mortality restricted to lambs peaked in summer when ewes and lambs were concentrated in nursery groups. 4. We detected weak synchrony in adult pneumonia between adjacent populations, but found no evidence for landscape-scale extrinsic variables as drivers of disease. 5. We demonstrate that there was a >60% probability of a disease event each year following pneumonia invasion into bighorn sheep populations. Healthy years also occurred periodically, and understanding the factors driving these apparent fade-out events may be the key to managing this disease. Our data and modelling indicate that pneumonia can have greater impacts on bighorn sheep populations than previously reported, and we present hypotheses about processes involved for testing in future investigations and management. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Variations in the form of the hypoglossal canal in ancient Anatolian populations: comparison of two recording methods.

PubMed

Eroğlu, S

2010-02-01

In this study, the frequency of bridging of the hypoglossal canal was investigated on 324 skulls belonging to 10 ancient Anatolian populations recovered from various archaeological sites and dated from Early Bronze Age to the first quarter of the 20th century. The change in the frequency of bridging trait in the hypoglossal canal that has already been recorded according to both the traditional method (absent or present) and the graded method (0-5) was analysed here in relationship to age, sex, skull side and population. The results revealed no significant relation between the bridging of hypoglossal canal and age or sex. Both recording methods showed that the studied samples of ancient Anatolian populations exhibited a homogenous structure and they were found to differ considerably from other populations which inhabited lands other than Anatolia. This indicates that these two recording methods produce similar results in comparing populations. The differences between the sides were found to be significant with the detailed recording method as opposed to the dichotomous method. This asymmetry emerging with the detailed recording method is considered to be important in determining the effect of environmental factors upon the trait. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Brain Structure and Organization Five Decades After Childhood Onset Epilepsy

PubMed Central

Garcia-Ramos, Camille; Bobholz, Sam; Dabbs, Kevin; Hermann, Bruce; Joutsa, Juho; Rinne, Juha O.; Karrasch, Mira; Prabhakaran, Vivek; Shinnar, Shlomo; Sillanpää, Matti

2017-01-01

The purpose of this project was to characterize brain structure and organization in persons with active and remitted childhood onset epilepsy 50 years after diagnosis compared to healthy controls. Participants from a population-based investigation of uncomplicated childhood onset epilepsy were followed up 5 decades later. Forty-one participants had a history of childhood onset epilepsy (mean age of onset= 5.2 yrs, current chronological age= 56.0 yrs) and were compared to 48 population-based controls (mean age= 55.9 yrs). Of the epilepsy participants, 8 had persisting active epilepsy and in 33 the epilepsy had remitted. All participants underwent 3T MRI with subsequent vertex analysis of cortical volume, thickness, surface area and gyral complexity. In addition, cortical and subcortical volumes, including regions of the frontal, parietal, temporal, and occipital lobes, and subcortical structures including amygdala, thalamus, and hippocampus, were analyzed using graph theory techniques. There were modest group differences in traditional vertex-based analyses of cortical volume, thickness, surface area and gyral index, as well as across volumes of subcortical structures, after correction for multiple comparisons. Graph theory analyses revealed suboptimal topological structural organization with enhanced network segregation and reduced global integration in the epilepsy participants compared to controls, these patterns significantly more extreme in the active epilepsy group. Furthermore, both groups with epilepsy presented a greater number of higher Z-score regions in betweenness centrality (BC) than lower Z-score regions compared to controls. Also, contrary to the group with remitted epilepsy, patients with active epilepsy presented most of their high BC Z-score regions in subcortical areas including the amygdala, thalamus, hippocampus, pallidum and accumbens. Overall, this population-based investigation of long term outcome (5 decades) of childhood onset epilepsy reveals persisting abnormalities, especially when examined by graph theoretical measurements, and provides new insights into the very long term outcomes of active and remitted epilepsy. PMID:28370719

Preparing for an "Insured" Old Age: Insurance Purchase and Self-Support in Old Age in Rural China.

PubMed

Shi, Lihong

2018-05-21

This article explores an emerging trend among young and middle-aged rural couples in Northeast China who have purchased recently marketized commercial insurance as a way to prepare for self-support in old age. It discusses how the commercial insurance industry has created a rural elder-care market among a population that traditionally relied on family for support in old age. It also delves into the ways in which the transformations of intergenerational exchange and family structure and a lack of health care access have contributed to the preparation for self-support in old age and have thus fostered the creation of a rural elder-care market for the insurance industry. This emerging trend reveals a transition from traditional family support to a combination of multiple ways of elder care, in particular self-support in old age. It also suggests that while the Chinese state is facing a pressing issue of supporting an increasing aging population and the Chinese family is coping with the burden of elder care, the insurance industry is playing an increasing role in elder care in China.

Comparison of helicopter and ground surveys for North American elk Cervus elaphus and mule deer Odocoileus hemionus population composition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, L.C.; Myers, W.L.; Gould, W.R.

2003-01-01

Both ground and helicopter surveys are commonly used to collect sex and age composition data for ungulates. Little attention has been paid, however, to whether data collected by each technique are similar. We compared helicopter and ground composition data for both elk Cervus elaphus and mule deer Odocoileus hemionus across a variety of habitats in the state of Washington, USA. We found that ground and helicopter counts differed (P's < 0.002) consistently in male age structure estimates for elk, and that the two survey methods differed in estimates of adult sex ratios for mule deer (P = 0.023). Counts from helicopters provided larger sample sizes, tended to be more consistent annually in their results, and were corroborated by other demographic studies of the test populations. We conclude that helicopter and ground surveys differ for male age structure and perhaps male:female ratios, but are similar for young:female ratios. Managers should maintain a standardized technique using the same survey vehicle for trend analysis of composition data.

Boosting structured additive quantile regression for longitudinal childhood obesity data.

PubMed

Fenske, Nora; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Hothorn, Torsten; Rzehak, Peter; Höhle, Michael

2013-07-25

Childhood obesity and the investigation of its risk factors has become an important public health issue. Our work is based on and motivated by a German longitudinal study including 2,226 children with up to ten measurements on their body mass index (BMI) and risk factors from birth to the age of 10 years. We introduce boosting of structured additive quantile regression as a novel distribution-free approach for longitudinal quantile regression. The quantile-specific predictors of our model include conventional linear population effects, smooth nonlinear functional effects, varying-coefficient terms, and individual-specific effects, such as intercepts and slopes. Estimation is based on boosting, a computer intensive inference method for highly complex models. We propose a component-wise functional gradient descent boosting algorithm that allows for penalized estimation of the large variety of different effects, particularly leading to individual-specific effects shrunken toward zero. This concept allows us to flexibly estimate the nonlinear age curves of upper quantiles of the BMI distribution, both on population and on individual-specific level, adjusted for further risk factors and to detect age-varying effects of categorical risk factors. Our model approach can be regarded as the quantile regression analog of Gaussian additive mixed models (or structured additive mean regression models), and we compare both model classes with respect to our obesity data.

Are there differences in brain morphometry between twins and unrelated singletons? A pediatric MRI study.

PubMed

Ordaz, S J; Lenroot, R K; Wallace, G L; Clasen, L S; Blumenthal, J D; Schmitt, J E; Giedd, J N

2010-04-01

Twins provide a unique capacity to explore relative genetic and environmental contributions to brain development, but results are applicable to non-twin populations only to the extent that twin and singleton brains are alike. A reason to suspect differences is that as a group twins are more likely than singletons to experience adverse prenatal and perinatal events that may affect brain development. We sought to assess whether this increased risk leads to differences in child or adolescent brain anatomy in twins who do not experience behavioral or neurological sequelae during the perinatal period. Brain MRI scans of 185 healthy pediatric twins (mean age = 11.0, SD = 3.6) were compared to scans of 167 age- and sex-matched unrelated singletons on brain structures measured, which included gray and white matter lobar volumes, ventricular volume, and area of the corpus callosum. There were no significant differences between groups for any structure, despite sufficient power for low type II (i.e. false negative) error. The implications of these results are twofold: (1) within this age range and for these measures, it is appropriate to include healthy twins in studies of typical brain development, and (2) findings regarding heritability of brain structures obtained from twin studies can be generalized to non-twin populations.

Multimorbidity prevalence and patterns across socioeconomic determinants: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Agborsangaya, Calypse B; Lau, Darren; Lahtinen, Markus; Cooke, Tim; Johnson, Jeffrey A

2012-03-19

Studies on the prevalence of multimorbidity, defined as having two or more chronic conditions, have predominantly focused on the elderly. We estimated the prevalence and specific patterns of multimorbidity across different adult age groups. Furthermore, we examined the associations of multimorbidity with socio-demographic factors. Using data from the Health Quality Council of Alberta (HQCA) 2010 Patient Experience Survey, the prevalence of self reported multimorbidity was assessed by telephone interview among a sample of 5010 adults (18 years and over) from the general population. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the association between a range of socio-demographic factors and multimorbidity. The overall age- and sex-standardized prevalence of multimorbidity was 19.0% in the surveyed general population. Of those with multimorbidity, 70.2% were aged less than 65 years. The most common pairing of chronic conditions was chronic pain and arthritis. Age, sex, income and family structure were independently associated with multimorbidity. Multimorbidity is a common occurrence in the general adult population, and is not limited to the elderly. Future prevention programs and practice guidelines should take into account the common patterns of multimorbidity.

Consensus on Changing Trends, Attitudes, and Concepts of Asian Beauty.

PubMed

Liew, Steven; Wu, Woffles T L; Chan, Henry H; Ho, Wilson W S; Kim, Hee-Jin; Goodman, Greg J; Peng, Peter H L; Rogers, John D

2016-04-01

Asians increasingly seek non-surgical facial esthetic treatments, especially at younger ages. Published recommendations and clinical evidence mostly reference Western populations, but Asians differ from them in terms of attitudes to beauty, structural facial anatomy, and signs and rates of aging. A thorough knowledge of the key esthetic concerns and requirements for the Asian face is required to strategize appropriate facial esthetic treatments with botulinum toxin and hyaluronic acid (HA) fillers. The Asian Facial Aesthetics Expert Consensus Group met to develop consensus statements on concepts of facial beauty, key esthetic concerns, facial anatomy, and aging in Southeastern and Eastern Asians, as a prelude to developing consensus opinions on the cosmetic facial use of botulinum toxin and HA fillers in these populations. Beautiful and esthetically attractive people of all races share similarities in appearance while retaining distinct ethnic features. Asians between the third and sixth decades age well compared with age-matched Caucasians. Younger Asians' increasing requests for injectable treatments to improve facial shape and three-dimensionality often reflect a desire to correct underlying facial structural deficiencies or weaknesses that detract from ideals of facial beauty. Facial esthetic treatments in Asians are not aimed at Westernization, but rather the optimization of intrinsic Asian ethnic features, or correction of specific underlying structural features that are perceived as deficiencies. Thus, overall facial attractiveness is enhanced while retaining esthetic characteristics of Asian ethnicity. Because Asian patients age differently than Western patients, different management and treatment planning strategies are utilized. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266.

Sola schola et sanitate: human capital as the root cause and priority for international development?

PubMed Central

Lutz, Wolfgang

2009-01-01

This paper summarizes new scientific evidence supporting the hypothesis that among the many factors contributing to international development, the combination of education and health stands out as a root cause on which other dimensions of development depend. Much of this recent analysis is based on new reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex and four levels of educational attainment for more than 120 countries using the demographic method of multi-state population dynamics. It also refers to a series of systems analytical population–development–environment case studies that comprehensively assess the role of population and education factors relative to other factors in the struggle for sustainable development. The paper also claims that most concerns about the consequences of population trends are in fact concerns about human capital, and that only by adding the ‘quality’ dimension of education to the traditionally narrow focus on size and age structure can some of the long-standing population controversies be resolved. PMID:19770154

Mapping young stellar populations towards Orion with Gaia DR1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zari, Eleonora; Brown, Anthony G. A.

2018-04-01

OB associations are prime sites for the study of star formation processes and of the interaction between young massive stars with the interstellar medium. Furthermore, the kinematics and structure of the nearest OB associations provide detailed insight into the properties and origin of the Gould Belt. In this context, the Orion complex has been extensively studied. However, the spatial distribution of the stellar population is still uncertain: in particular, the distances and ages of the various sub-groups composing the Orion OB association, and their connection to the surrounding interstellar medium, are not well determined. We used the first Gaia data release to characterize the stellar population in Orion, with the goal to obtain new distance and age estimates of the numerous stellar groups composing the Orion OB association. We found evidence of the existence of a young and rich population spread over the entire region, loosely clustered around some known groups. This newly discovered population of young stars provides a fresh view of the star formation history of the Orion region.

Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

1999-01-01

The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

The Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience (Cam-CAN) data repository: Structural and functional MRI, MEG, and cognitive data from a cross-sectional adult lifespan sample.

PubMed

Taylor, Jason R; Williams, Nitin; Cusack, Rhodri; Auer, Tibor; Shafto, Meredith A; Dixon, Marie; Tyler, Lorraine K; Cam-Can; Henson, Richard N

2017-01-01

This paper describes the data repository for the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience (Cam-CAN) initial study cohort. The Cam-CAN Stage 2 repository contains multi-modal (MRI, MEG, and cognitive-behavioural) data from a large (approximately N=700), cross-sectional adult lifespan (18-87years old) population-based sample. The study is designed to characterise age-related changes in cognition and brain structure and function, and to uncover the neurocognitive mechanisms that support healthy cognitive ageing. The database contains raw and preprocessed structural MRI, functional MRI (active tasks and resting state), and MEG data (active tasks and resting state), as well as derived scores from cognitive behavioural experiments spanning five broad domains (attention, emotion, action, language, and memory), and demographic and neuropsychological data. The dataset thus provides a depth of neurocognitive phenotyping that is currently unparalleled, enabling integrative analyses of age-related changes in brain structure, brain function, and cognition, and providing a testbed for novel analyses of multi-modal neuroimaging data. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies

PubMed Central

Betti, M. I.; Wahl, L. M.

2016-01-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of ‘spring dwindle’, which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past. PMID:28018627

Development of Malaysian women fertility index: Evidence from Shannon's entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalil, Wan Aznie Fatihah Wan Abd; Sharif, Shamshuritawati

2017-11-01

A fertility rate is a measure of the average number of children a woman will have during her childbearing years. Malaysia is now facing a population crisis and the fertility rate continues to decline. This situation will have implications for the age structure of the population where percentages of senior citizens are higher than percentages of people aged below 5 years old. Malaysia is expected to reach aging population status by the year 2035. As the aging population has a very long average life expectancy, the government needs to spend a lot on medical costs for senior citizens and need to increase budgets for pensions. The government may be required to increase tax revenues to support the growing older population. The falling fertility rate requires proper control by relevant authorities, especially through planning and implementation of strategic and effective measures. Hence, this paper aims to develop a fertility index using Shannon's entropy method. The results show that Selangor, Johor, and Sarawak are among the states with the highest values of the fertility index. On the other end of the spectrum, Terengganu, W.P. Labuan, and Perlis are ranked in the last positions according to the fertility index. The information generated from the results in this study can be used as a primary source for the government to design appropriate policies to mitigate dwindling fertility rates among Malaysian women.

Match or mismatch: the influence of phenology on size-dependent life history and divergence in population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherding, Jost; Beeck, Peter; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Scharf, Werner R.

2010-01-01

Summary 1. In gape-limited predators, body size asymmetries determine the outcome of predator-prey interactions. Due to ontogenetic changes in body size, the intensity of intra- and interspecific interactions may change rapidly between the match situation of a predator-prey system and the mismatch situation in which competition, including competition with the prey, dominates. 2. Based on a physiologically structured population model using the European perch (Perca fluviatilis), analysis was performed on how prey density (bream, Abramis brama), initial size differences in the young-of-the-year (YOY) age cohort of the predator, and phenology (time-gap in hatching of predator and prey) influence the size structure of the predator cohort. 3. In relation to the seasonality of reproduction, the match situation of the predator-prey system occurred when perch hatched earlier than bream and when no gape-size limitations existed, leading to decreased size divergence in the predator age cohort. Decreased size divergence was also found when bream hatched much earlier than perch, preventing perch predation on bream occurring, which, in turn, increased the competitive interaction of the perch with bream for the common prey, zooplankton; i.e. the mismatch situation in which also the mean size of the age cohort of the predator decreased. 4. In between the total match and the mismatch, however, only the largest individuals of the perch age cohort were able to prey on the bream, while smaller conspecifics got trapped in competition with each other and with bream for zooplankton, leading to enlarged differences in growth that increased size divergence. 5. The modelling results were combined with 7 years of field data in a lake, where large differences in the length-frequency distribution of YOY perch were observed after their first summer. These field data corroborate that phenology and prey density per predator are important mechanisms in determining size differences within the YOY age cohort of the predator. 6. The results demonstrate that the switch between competitive interactions and a predator-prey relationship depended on phenology. This resulted in pronounced size differences in the YOY age cohort, which had far-reaching consequences for the entire predator population.

Design of a wearable cable-driven upper limb exoskeleton based on epicyclic gear trains structure.

PubMed

Xiao, Feiyun; Gao, Yongsheng; Wang, Yong; Zhu, Yanhe; Zhao, Jie

2017-07-20

Many countries, including Japan, Italy, and China are experiencing demographic shifts as their populations age. Some basic activities of daily living (ADLs) are difficult for elderly people to complete independently due to declines in motor function. In this paper, a 6-DOF wearable cable-driven upper limb exoskeleton (CABexo) based on epicyclic gear trains structure is proposed. The main structure of the exoskeleton system is composed of three epicyclic gear train sections. This new exoskeleton has a parallel mechanical structure to the traditional serial structure, but is stiffer and has a stronger carrying capacity. The traditional gear transmission structure is replaced with a cable transmission system, which is quieter, and has higher accuracy and smoother transmission. The static workspace of the exoskeleton is large enough to meet the demand of assisting aged and disabled individuals in completing most of their activities of daily living (ADLs).

Biology Notes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holt, S.

1972-01-01

Short articles describing a model of protein synthesis, a simple constant temperature incubator, techniques for determining the age structure of populations from qualitative characters, an experimental demonstration of proteolytic enzyme action, and apparatus for demonstrating hydrotrophic response of roots and for measuring photosynthetic rate of…

Urban Evolution: the Role of Water

EPA Science Inventory

The structure, function, and services of urban ecosystems evolve over time scales from seconds to centuries as Earth's population grows, infrastructure ages, and sociopolitical values alter them. In order to systematically study changes over time, the concept of "urban evolution...

Abundance trends and status of the Little Colorado River population of humpback chub

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Van Haverbeke, D. R.; Ward, D.; Johnstone, H.C.

2006-01-01

The abundance of the Little Colorado River population of federally listed humpback chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon has been monitored since the late 1980s by means of catch rate indices and capture-recapture-based abundance estimators. Analyses of data from all sources using various methods are consistent and indicate that the adult population has declined since monitoring began. Intensive tagging led to a high proportion (>80%) of the adult population being marked by the mid-1990s. Analysis of these data using both closed and open abundance estimation models yields results that agree with catch rate indices about the extent of the decline. Survival rates for age-2 and older fish are age dependent but apparently not time dependent. Back-calculation of recruitment using the apparent 1990s population age structure implies periods of higher recruitment in the late 1970s to early 1980s than is now the case. Our analyses indicate that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recovery criterion of stable abundance is not being met for this population. Also, there is a critical need to develop new abundance indexing and tagging methods so that early, reliable, and rapid estimates of humpback chub recruitment can be obtained to evaluate population responses to management actions designed to facilitate the restoration of Colorado River native fish communities. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Objective Sleep Structure and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the General Population: The HypnoLaus Study

PubMed Central

Haba-Rubio, José; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Andries, Daniela; Tobback, Nadia; Preisig, Martin; Vollenweider, Peter; Waeber, Gérard; Luca, Gianina; Tafti, Mehdi; Heinzer, Raphaël

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: To evaluate the association between objective sleep measures and metabolic syndrome (MS), hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: General population sample. Participants: There were 2,162 patients (51.2% women, mean age 58.4 ± 11.1). Interventions: Patients were evaluated for hypertension, diabetes, overweight/obesity, and MS, and underwent a full polysomnography (PSG). Measurements and Results: PSG measured variables included: total sleep time (TST), percentage and time spent in slow wave sleep (SWS) and in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, sleep efficiency and arousal index (ArI). In univariate analyses, MS was associated with decreased TST, SWS, REM sleep, and sleep efficiency, and increased ArI. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, drugs that affect sleep and depression, the ArI remained significantly higher, but the difference disappeared in patients without significant sleep disordered breathing (SDB). Differences in sleep structure were also found according to the presence or absence of hypertension, diabetes, and overweight/obesity in univariate analysis. However, these differences were attenuated after multivariate adjustment and after excluding subjects with significant SDB. Conclusions: In this population-based sample we found significant associations between sleep structure and metabolic syndrome (MS), hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. However, these associations were cancelled after multivariate adjustment. We conclude that normal variations in sleep contribute little if any to MS and associated disorders. Citation: Haba-Rubio J, Marques-Vidal P, Andries D, Tobback N, Preisig M, Vollenweider P, Waeber G, Luca G, Tafti M, Heinzer R. Objective sleep structure and cardiovascular risk factors in the general population: the HypnoLaus study. SLEEP 2015;38(3):391–400. PMID:25325467

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE PAGES

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-04-23

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

Physical Therapy for Neurological Conditions in Geriatric Populations.

PubMed

Carmeli, Eli

2017-01-01

With more of the world's population surviving longer, individuals often face age-related neurology disorders and decline of function that can affect lifestyle and well-being. Despite neurophysiological changes affecting the brain function and structure, the aged brain, in some degree, can learn and relearn due to neuroplasticity. Recent advances in rehabilitation techniques have produced better functional outcomes in age-related neurological conditions. Physical therapy (PT) of the elderly individual focuses in particular on sensory-motor impairments, postural control coordination, and prevention of sarcopenia. Geriatric PT has a significant influence on quality of life, independent living, and life expectancy. However, in many developed and developing countries, the profession of PT is underfunded and understaffed. This article provides a brief overview on (a) age-related disease of central nervous system and (b) the principles, approaches, and doctrines of motor skill learning and point out the most common treatment models that PTs use for neurological patients.

Physical Therapy for Neurological Conditions in Geriatric Populations

PubMed Central

Carmeli, Eli

2017-01-01

With more of the world’s population surviving longer, individuals often face age-related neurology disorders and decline of function that can affect lifestyle and well-being. Despite neurophysiological changes affecting the brain function and structure, the aged brain, in some degree, can learn and relearn due to neuroplasticity. Recent advances in rehabilitation techniques have produced better functional outcomes in age-related neurological conditions. Physical therapy (PT) of the elderly individual focuses in particular on sensory–motor impairments, postural control coordination, and prevention of sarcopenia. Geriatric PT has a significant influence on quality of life, independent living, and life expectancy. However, in many developed and developing countries, the profession of PT is underfunded and understaffed. This article provides a brief overview on (a) age-related disease of central nervous system and (b) the principles, approaches, and doctrines of motor skill learning and point out the most common treatment models that PTs use for neurological patients. PMID:29270402

Accounting for Age Uncertainty in Growth Modeling, the Case Study of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) of the Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Dortel, Emmanuelle; Massiot-Granier, Félix; Rivot, Etienne; Million, Julien; Hallier, Jean-Pierre; Morize, Eric; Munaron, Jean-Marie; Bousquet, Nicolas; Chassot, Emmanuel

2013-01-01

Age estimates, typically determined by counting periodic growth increments in calcified structures of vertebrates, are the basis of population dynamics models used for managing exploited or threatened species. In fisheries research, the use of otolith growth rings as an indicator of fish age has increased considerably in recent decades. However, otolith readings include various sources of uncertainty. Current ageing methods, which converts an average count of rings into age, only provide periodic age estimates in which the range of uncertainty is fully ignored. In this study, we describe a hierarchical model for estimating individual ages from repeated otolith readings. The model was developed within a Bayesian framework to explicitly represent the sources of uncertainty associated with age estimation, to allow for individual variations and to include knowledge on parameters from expertise. The performance of the proposed model was examined through simulations, and then it was coupled to a two-stanza somatic growth model to evaluate the impact of the age estimation method on the age composition of commercial fisheries catches. We illustrate our approach using the saggital otoliths of yellowfin tuna of the Indian Ocean collected through large-scale mark-recapture experiments. The simulation performance suggested that the ageing error model was able to estimate the ageing biases and provide accurate age estimates, regardless of the age of the fish. Coupled with the growth model, this approach appeared suitable for modeling the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin and is consistent with findings of previous studies. The simulations showed that the choice of the ageing method can strongly affect growth estimates with subsequent implications for age-structured data used as inputs for population models. Finally, our modeling approach revealed particularly useful to reflect uncertainty around age estimates into the process of growth estimation and it can be applied to any study relying on age estimation. PMID:23637773

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

The Impact of Cuban Economic Reform on Older Persons.

PubMed

Strug, David L

2017-03-01

This paper discusses the economic reforms initiated by Cuban President Raúl Castro in 2008 and its effect on the country's fast-growing, vulnerable population of older persons 60+ years of age. Cubans are living longer and the country has a very low birthrate. These two factors combined have reduced the proportion of the population in the work force. This adversely affects the economy. Population aging is a major reason why the government has introduced structural reforms and reduced social spending, which have weakened the welfare state on which older persons depend. Many older persons have become critical of the reforms over time. Policy makers need to address the impact the reforms are having on older Cubans and consider them as active participants in economic reform. Data for this paper come from qualitative, case study research carried out in Havana between the years 2008-15 and from a review of the literature on aging and economic reforms in Cuba. Two case studies illustrate the impact of the economic reforms on older persons.

Shelter for the twenty-first century.

PubMed Central

Spengler, J D

1990-01-01

Housing for the twenty-first century will be shaped by the changes that are occurring in society. These include the demographics of the occupant, the products and materials used for construction and furnishing, and the basic use of the structure. An aging population will have different demands on design and function. The health concerns of an aging population encompass chronic degenerative diseases as well as injury. The lessons of the past must make us mindful that chronic, low-level exposures to substances can occur at home. Products and materials used in homes can release vapors that may affect immunologic and neurologic function. Manifestations of dysfunctions will be more important as our population ages and if there is a continued reliance on new chemical formulation for products used in homes and workplaces. The future portends changes in functional use of residences. Electronic communications and robotics will decentralize our work force. Manufacturing or office functions will occur at home. This will present new challenges for health and safety for both monitoring and prevention. PMID:2401266

Siberian population of the New Stone Age: mtDNA haplotype diversity in the ancient population from the Ust'-Ida I burial ground, dated 4020-3210 BC by 14C.

PubMed

Naumova O, Y u; Rychkov S, Y u

1998-03-01

On the basis of analysis of mtDNA from skeletal remains, dated by 14C 4020-3210 BC, from the Ust'-Ida I Neolithic burial ground in Cis-Baikal area of Siberia, we obtained genetic characteristics of the ancient Mongoloid population. Using the 7 restriction enzymes for the analysis of site's polymorphism in 16,106-16,545 region of mtDNA, we studied the structure of the most frequent DNA haplotypes, and estimated the intrapopulational nucleotide diversity of the Neolithic population. Comparison of the Neolithic and modern indigeneous populations from Siberia, Mongolia and Ural showed, that the ancient Siberian population is one of the ancestors of the modern population of Siberia. From genetic distance, in the assumption of constant nucleotide substitution rate, we estimated the divergence time between the Neolithic and the modern Siberian population. This divergence time (5572 years ago) is conformed to the age of skeletal remains (5542-5652 years). With use of the 14C dates of the skeletal remains, nucleotide substitution rate in mtDNA was estimated as 1% sequence divergence for 8938-9115 years.

The Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire (4DSQ) in the general population: scale structure, reliability, measurement invariance and normative data: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Terluin, Berend; Smits, Niels; Brouwers, Evelien P M; de Vet, Henrica C W

2016-09-15

The Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire (4DSQ) is a self-report questionnaire measuring distress, depression, anxiety and somatization with separate scales. The 4DSQ has extensively been validated in clinical samples, especially from primary care settings. Information about measurement properties and normative data in the general population was lacking. In a Dutch general population sample we examined the 4DSQ scales' structure, the scales' reliability and measurement invariance with respect to gender, age and education, the scales' score distributions across demographic categories, and normative data. 4DSQ data were collected in a representative Dutch Internet panel. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine the scales' structure. Reliability was examined by Cronbach's alpha, and coefficients omega-total and omega-hierarchical. Differential item functioning (DIF) analysis was used to evaluate measurement invariance across gender, age and education. The total response rate was 82.4 % (n = 5273/6399). The depression scale proved to be unidimensional. The other scales were best represented as bifactor models consisting of a large general factor and one or more smaller specific factors. The general factors accounted for more than 95 % of the reliable variance of the scales. Reliability was high (≥0.85) by all estimates. The distress-, depression- and anxiety scales were invariant across gender, age and education. The somatization scale demonstrated some lack of measurement invariance as a result of decreased thresholds for some of the items in young people (16-24 years) and increased thresholds in elderly people (65+ years). The somatization scale was invariant regarding gender and education. The 4DSQ scores varied significantly across demographic categories, but the explained variance was small (<6 %). Normative data were generated for gender and age categories. Approximately 17 % of the participants scored above average on de distress scale, whereas 12 % scored above average on de somatization scale. Percentages of people scoring high enough on depression or anxiety as to suspect the presence of depressive or anxiety disorder were 4.1 and 2.5 respectively. Evidence supports reliability and measurement invariance of the 4DSQ in the general Dutch population. The normative data provided in this study can be used to compare a subject's 4DSQ scores with a general population reference group.

Life expectancy and health care expenditures: a new calculation for Germany using the costs of dying.

PubMed

Breyer, Friedrich; Felder, Stefan

2006-01-01

Some people believe that the impact of population ageing on future health care expenditures will be quite moderate due to the high costs of dying. If not age per se but proximity to death determines the bulk of expenditures, a shift in the mortality risk to higher ages will not affect lifetime health care expenditures as death occurs only once in every life. We attempt to take this effect into account when we calculate the demographic impact on health care expenditures in Germany. From a Swiss data set, we derive age-expenditure profiles for both genders, separately for persons in their last 4 years of life and for survivors, which we apply to the projections of the age structure and mortality rates for the German population between 2002 and 2050 as published by the Statistische Bundesamt. In the extreme case, we assume that morbidity is compressed at the end of life in such a way that a 60-year old in 2050 is as healthy as a 56-year old today if his life expectancy is 4 years higher. We calculate that at constant prices, per-capita health expenditures of Social Health Insurance would rise from 2596 Euro in 2002 to between 2959 Euro and 3102 Euro in 2050 when only the age structure of the population changes and everything else remains constant at the present level, and to between 5232 Euro and 5485 Euro with a technology-driven exogenous cost increase of 1% per annum. A "naïve" projection based only on the age distribution of health care expenditures, but not distinguishing between survivors and decedents, yields values of 3217 Euro and 5688 Euro for 2050, respectively. Thus, the error of excluding the "costs of dying" effect is small compared with the error of underestimating the financial consequences of expanding medical technology.

The contribution of social behaviour to the transmission of influenza A in a human population.

PubMed

Kucharski, Adam J; Kwok, Kin O; Wei, Vivian W I; Cowling, Benjamin J; Read, Jonathan M; Lessler, Justin; Cummings, Derek A; Riley, Steven

2014-06-01

Variability in the risk of transmission for respiratory pathogens can result from several factors, including the intrinsic properties of the pathogen, the immune state of the host and the host's behaviour. It has been proposed that self-reported social mixing patterns can explain the behavioural component of this variability, with simulated intervention studies based on these data used routinely to inform public health policy. However, in the absence of robust studies with biological endpoints for individuals, it is unclear how age and social behaviour contribute to infection risk. To examine how the structure and nature of social contacts influenced infection risk over the course of a single epidemic, we designed a flexible disease modelling framework: the population was divided into a series of increasingly detailed age and social contact classes, with the transmissibility of each age-contact class determined by the average contacts of that class. Fitting the models to serologically confirmed infection data from the 2009 Hong Kong influenza A/H1N1p pandemic, we found that an individual's risk of infection was influenced strongly by the average reported social mixing behaviour of their age group, rather than by their personal reported contacts. We also identified the resolution of social mixing that shaped transmission: epidemic dynamics were driven by intense contacts between children, a post-childhood drop in risky contacts and a subsequent rise in contacts for individuals aged 35-50. Our results demonstrate that self-reported social contact surveys can account for age-associated heterogeneity in the transmission of a respiratory pathogen in humans, and show robustly how these individual-level behaviours manifest themselves through assortative age groups. Our results suggest it is possible to profile the social structure of different populations and to use these aggregated data to predict their inherent transmission potential.

Learning-based prediction of gestational age from ultrasound images of the fetal brain.

PubMed

Namburete, Ana I L; Stebbing, Richard V; Kemp, Bryn; Yaqub, Mohammad; Papageorghiou, Aris T; Alison Noble, J

2015-04-01

We propose an automated framework for predicting gestational age (GA) and neurodevelopmental maturation of a fetus based on 3D ultrasound (US) brain image appearance. Our method capitalizes on age-related sonographic image patterns in conjunction with clinical measurements to develop, for the first time, a predictive age model which improves on the GA-prediction potential of US images. The framework benefits from a manifold surface representation of the fetal head which delineates the inner skull boundary and serves as a common coordinate system based on cranial position. This allows for fast and efficient sampling of anatomically-corresponding brain regions to achieve like-for-like structural comparison of different developmental stages. We develop bespoke features which capture neurosonographic patterns in 3D images, and using a regression forest classifier, we characterize structural brain development both spatially and temporally to capture the natural variation existing in a healthy population (N=447) over an age range of active brain maturation (18-34weeks). On a routine clinical dataset (N=187) our age prediction results strongly correlate with true GA (r=0.98,accurate within±6.10days), confirming the link between maturational progression and neurosonographic activity observable across gestation. Our model also outperforms current clinical methods by ±4.57 days in the third trimester-a period complicated by biological variations in the fetal population. Through feature selection, the model successfully identified the most age-discriminating anatomies over this age range as being the Sylvian fissure, cingulate, and callosal sulci. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age and growth of the mutton hamlet Alphestes afer, with a review of the size and age of sex change among epinephelids.

PubMed

Marques, S; Ferreira, B P

2016-07-01

This paper presents results on the age, growth and population structure of a small grouper, the mutton hamlet Alphestes afer, and discusses the observed size and age structure patterns in relation to reproductive strategies among the epinephelids. Ages were determined by examination of sectioned otoliths, which showed a distinct pattern of alternating translucent and opaque zones that formed annually, as validated with tetracycline labelling. The von Bertalanffy growth function was adjusted to the length-at-age data of the males and females, but no significant differences were observed between the resulting parameters. The females, however, were older at given sizes and attained larger sizes and ages, with a maximum observed longevity of 13 years and a total length (LT ) of 26 cm, while the males attained maximum longevities of only 10 years and a 22 cm maximum LT . The LT and age range for the sex change was 16-25 cm and 3-11 years. The total mortality rate (Z) was estimated to be 0·55 for females and 0·82 for males. With the males younger and smaller than the females, this species differed from the pattern commonly observed for protogynous epinephelids. Males had slower growth after maturation, probably due to energy allocation to sperm production during sexual development. This study shows that demography is an important tool to understand the pathways for reproductive strategies in grouper populations. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Nexus Between Demographic Change and Elderly Care Need in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: Some Policy Implications.

PubMed

Khan, Hafiz T A; Hussein, Shereen; Deane, John

2017-01-01

Population ageing is a phenomenon affecting the whole world. The countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are no exception but transitions in population ageing are still in the early stages of the process. With current demographic dividends experienced by the GCC and the rest of the Middle-East, the pace of population ageing will be faster than that experienced by many European countries. The purpose of this paper is to explore the population ageing experience of different GCC countries while situating this within a context of social policies that still at the very early stages of acknowledging such change. We utilise data from sources such as the United Nations and the World Bank, complemented by policy analysis of current age-related social security measures in the GCC. Given the importance of the family aged care system in the region, we consider the implications of changes in family structures, living conditions, and care needs for the elderly. The findings confirm the declining trend in fertility combined with increased life expectancy in all the six GCC countries. However, they highlight that social policy measures focused on the older generations and their care needs are still relatively at the early stages of each country's policy agenda. The implications of such changes are serious in term of both the demand for and supply of care. Policy-makers need to adapt cohesive social policy strategies that strengthen the complementing relationships between the state, family and wider community as stakeholders in the provision of aged care.

[Gender and age dependent mortality from nervous diseases in Azerbaijan].

PubMed

Mamedbeyli, A K

2015-01-01

To assess age- and sex-related changes in the mortality from nervous diseases at the population level. Methods of descriptive statistics and analysis of qualitative traits were applied. We analyzed 13580 medical certificates of cause of death from nervous diseases (all classes of ICD-10). The mortality rate varied with age, the main trend of which was the dynamic growth. Age-specific mortality rates for men and women differed from each other: in most ages (20-24, 30-34, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 65-69), the likelihood of mortality was higher in men, and at the age of 5-9, 15-19, 60-64, 70 and more years in women. After the standardization of gender differences by age, the mortality risk of nervous illnesses disappeared (146.74 and 144.16 per 100 thousand for men and women, respectively).  There were significant differences in the proportion of nervous diseases of all-cause mortality among the population in the groups stratified by age and sex. It is believed that situational factors is a cause of actual prevailing of gender age- and sex-related mortality risks. Gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are characterized by the multidirectional dynamics of likelihood of mortality and specific weight of nervous diseases among all causes of mortality. The actual gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are generally caused by situational factors (different age structure and unequal level of the general mortality among male and female population) which disappear after standardization.

Age structure and development in ASEAN and Japan: 1950-2015; a preliminary report.

PubMed

Campbell, B O

1982-01-01

An attempt was made to show that significant shifts in age composition have occurred and will occur in the ASEAN countries and Japan. Based on the key ratio, the ratio of the entering labor force population, 15-29, to the established labor force population, 30-64, and on the education and dependency burdence, the evidence supports that such shifts have occurred and will occur. Another goal was to trace the potential impact of these age structure changes on the economy and society of the ASEAN countries and Japan, assuming a set of hypothetical relations between age structure changes, as measured by the key ratio and various demographic, economic, and social outcomes. This was done for Indonesia, and the Indonesian "case study" suggests that past and future changes in age strucute could have led and could lead to wide swings or long waves in per capita incomes or the growth rate in per capita incomes, the skill and possible captial intensity of production, household formation rates, emigration and immigration rates, fertility rates, and suicide rates, and other indicators of social instability. Interesting conclusions also emerged from the analysis of education and dependency burdens, especially the inverse relation between Japan's and ASEAN's burdens on both indices. The low educational and dependency burdens Japan enjoyed must have given Japan a distinct advantage in providing resources for infrastrucute, plant, and equipment, and so forth--an advantage that Japan will maintain (joined by Singapore) over the rest of this century. It is entirely possible that the relative economic performance of Japan versus the ASEAN countries or the ASEAN countries versus one another could not be fully explained or adequately forecasted without considering the impact of age structure and changes in age structure. It seems unlikely that the past or future performance of these countries individually can be adequately understood or forecasted without considering the long swing apparent in the key ratio and in the education and dependency burdens of each. For example, future fertility rates in several of the ASEAN countries and in Japan will differ from UN forecasts if they vary with the key ratio in the future as they have in the past. Even if this result is correct, ignoring age structure changes could lead to major forecasting and planning errors. A 1st step to encouraging research necessary to test the hypothetical relations on which these outcomes are based and to empirically determine the contribution of age structure would be to develop a more sophisticated theoretical framework than that used in this study and to carry out country by country investigations of the institutional and cultural constraints that influence the relations involved.

The Populations of Carina. I. Decoding the Color-Magnitude Diagram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, John E.; Yong, David; Venn, Kim A.; Dotter, Aaron; Casagrande, Luca; Gilmore, Gerard

2017-06-01

We investigate the color-magnitude diagram (CMD) of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy using data of Stetson et al. and synthetic CMDs based on isochrones of Dotter et al., in terms of the parameters [Fe/H], age, and [α/Fe], for the cases when (I) [α/Fe] is held constant and (II) [α/Fe] is varied. The data are well described by four basic epochs of star formation, having [Fe/H] = -1.85, -1.5, -1.2, and ˜-1.15 and ages ˜13, 7, ˜3.5, and ˜1.5 Gyr, respectively (for [α/Fe] = 0.1, constant [α/Fe], and [α/Fe] = 0.2, 0.1, -0.2, -0.2, variable [α/Fe]), with small spreads in [Fe/H] and age of order 0.1 dex and 1-3 Gyr. Within an elliptical radius 13.‧1, the mass fractions of the populations, at their times of formation, were (in decreasing age order) 0.34, 0.39, 0.23, and 0.04. This formalism reproduces five observed CMD features (two distinct subgiant branches of old and intermediate-age populations, two younger, main-sequence components, and the small color dispersion on the red giant branch (RGB). The parameters of the youngest population are less certain than those of the others, and given it is less centrally concentrated, it may not be directly related to them. High-resolution spectroscopically analyzed RGB samples appear statistically incomplete compared with those selected using radial velocity, which contain bluer stars comprising ˜5%-10% of the samples. We conjecture these objects may, at least in part, be members of the youngest population. We use the CMD simulations to obtain insight into the population structure of Carina's upper RGB.

Comparative Demography of an At-Risk African Elephant Population

PubMed Central

Wittemyer, George; Daballen, David; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain

2013-01-01

Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing). These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults), annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years) and females (21.8 years). Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval) were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications) as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human impacts (laying the foundation for modeling approaches), supporting predictions of evolutionary theory regarding demographic responses to ecological processes. PMID:23341984

Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population.

PubMed

Wittemyer, George; Daballen, David; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain

2013-01-01

Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing). These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults), annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years) and females (21.8 years). Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval) were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications) as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human impacts (laying the foundation for modeling approaches), supporting predictions of evolutionary theory regarding demographic responses to ecological processes.

Global stability of an age-structure epidemic model with imperfect vaccination and relapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Bin; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong

2017-11-01

A new age-structured epidemic model with imperfect vaccination and relapse is proposed. The total population of our model is partitioned into five subclasses: susceptible class S, vaccinated class V, exposed class E, infectious class I and removed class R. Age-structures are equipped with in exposed and recovered classes. Furthermore, imperfect vaccination is also introduced in our model. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and proved as a threshold parameter of the model. Asymptotic smoothness of solutions and uniform persistence of the system are showed via reformulating the system as a system of Volterra integral equation. Furthermore, by constructing proper Volterra-type Lyapunov functional we get when R0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally stable. Our results show that to increase the efficiency of vaccination and reduce influence of relapse are vital essential for controlling epidemic.

Latitudinal variation in population structure of wintering Pacific Black Brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schamber, J.L.; Sedinger, J.S.; Ward, D.H.; Hagmeier, K.R.

2007-01-01

Latitudinal variation in population structure during the winter has been reported in many migratory birds, but has been documented in few species of waterfowl. Variation in environmental and social conditions at wintering sites can potentially influence the population dynamics of differential migrants. We examined latitudinal variation in sex and age classes of wintering Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). Brant are distributed along a wide latitudinal gradient from Alaska to Mexico during the winter. Accordingly, migration distances for brant using different wintering locations are highly variable and winter settlement patterns are likely associated with a spatially variable food resource. We used resightings of brant banded in southwestern Alaska to examine sex and age ratios of birds wintering at Boundary Bay in British Columbia, and at San Quintin Bay, Ojo de Liebre Lagoon, and San Ignacio Lagoon in Baja California from 1998 to 2000. Sex ratios were similar among wintering locations for adults and were consistent with the mating strategy of geese. The distribution of juveniles varied among wintering areas, with greater proportions of juveniles observed at northern (San Quintin Bay and Ojo de Liebre Lagoon) than at southern (San Ignacio Lagoon) locations in Baja California. We suggest that age-related variation in the winter distribution of Pacific Black Brant is mediated by variation in productivity among individuals at different wintering locations and by social interactions among wintering family groups.

Long-term heavy metal pollution varied female reproduction investment in free-living anura, Bufo raddei.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenya; Guo, Rui; Ai, Shiwei; Yang, Ying; Ding, Jian; Zhang, Yingmei

2018-09-15

Environment contamination is known to affect the growth, reproduction, and even mortality of anuran species, and hence modulate their life history traits. Although knowledge of the ability of amphibians to cope with harsh environments has gained ongoing research, the reproductive strategy of free-living amphibians subjected to long-term heavy metal pollution is largely unknown. This study aimed to explore the variation in the life history traits, including age structure, maturation age, reproductive investment, and reproduction trade-off, in female Bufo raddei, a widespread anuran in Baiyin (BY) in northwest of China, subjected to sublethal heavy metal pollution. B. raddei collected from Liujiaxia (LJX), a relatively unpolluted area, were used as control. Skeletochronological analysis revealed variation in the average breeding age of females: more than 70% of females from BY began to breed 1 year before the toads collected from LJX. Females from BY tended to prioritize reproduction over survival and invested more in their first reproductive event. Further, females in BY with a high fluctuating asymmetry index showed a relatively lower reproductive investment. For trade-off in offspring number and size, BY population optimize larger clutch sizes with smaller egg size compared with population in LJX. Changes in female reproductive investment caused by heavy metal pollution might ultimately alter the structural stability of amphibian population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High Prevalence of Gallstone Disease in Rheumatoid Arthritis: A New Comorbidity Related to Dyslipidemia?

PubMed

García-Gómez, María Carmen; de Lama, Eugenia; Ordoñez-Palau, Sergi; Nolla, Joan Miquel; Corbella, Emili; Pintó, Xavier

2017-08-01

To assess the prevalence of gallstone disease and identify associated risk factors in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients compared to the general population. Eighty-four women with rheumatoid arthritis were included in the study. Each patient was assessed via a structured interview, physical examination, abdominal ultrasound and blood test including lipid profile. The prevalence of gallstone disease in rheumatoid arthritis was compared with data from a study of the Spanish population matched by age groups. Twenty-eight of the 84 women had gallstone disease (33.3%). RA women with and without gallstone disease were similar in most of the variables assessed, except for older age and menopausal status in the former. A greater prevalence of gallstone disease was seen in rheumatoid arthritis patients compared to the general population of the same age; however, the differences were significant only in women aged 60 or older (45.5% versus 23.1% respectively, P-value .008). The age-adjusted OR of developing gallstone disease in RA women compared with general population women was 2,3 (95% CI: 1.3-4.1). A significantly higher HDL3-c subfraction and higher apoA-I/HDL and HDL3-c/TC ratios were observed in patients with gallstone disease. Women with rheumatoid arthritis may have a predisposition to gallstones that can manifest in middle or older age compared with women in the general population. This situation could be related to chronic inflammation and HDL metabolism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

Ancestral populations perform better in a novel environment: domestication of medfly populations from five global regions

PubMed Central

Diamantidis, Alexandros D.; Carey, James R.; Nakas, Christos T.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.

2010-01-01

Geographically isolated populations of a species may differ in several aspects of life-history, morphology, behavior, and genetic structure as a result of adaptation in ecologically diverse habitats. We used a global invasive species, the Mediterranean fruit fly to investigate, whether adaptation to a novel environment differs among geographically isolated populations that vary in major life history components such as life span and reproduction. We used wild populations from five global regions (Kenya, Hawaii, Guatemala, Portugal, and Greece). Adult demographic traits were monitored in F2, F5, F7 and F9 generations in captivity. Although domestication in constant laboratory conditions had a different effect on the mortality and reproductive rates of the different populations, a general trend of decreasing life span and age of first reproduction was observed for most medfly populations tested. However, taking into account longevity of both sexes, age-specific reproductive schedules, and average reproductive rates we found that the ancestral Kenyan population kept the above life history traits stable during domestication compared to the other populations tested. These findings provide important insights in the life-history evolution of this model species, and suggest that ancestral medfly populations perform better than the derived – invasive ones in a novel environment. PMID:21278856

Human mining activity across the ages determines the genetic structure of modern brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) populations

PubMed Central

Paris, Josephine R; King, R Andrew; Stevens, Jamie R

2015-01-01

Humans have exploited the earth's metal resources for thousands of years leaving behind a legacy of toxic metal contamination and poor water quality. The southwest of England provides a well-defined example, with a rich history of metal mining dating to the Bronze Age. Mine water washout continues to negatively impact water quality across the region where brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) populations exist in both metal-impacted and relatively clean rivers. We used microsatellites to assess the genetic impact of mining practices on trout populations in this region. Our analyses demonstrated that metal-impacted trout populations have low genetic diversity and have experienced severe population declines. Metal-river trout populations are genetically distinct from clean-river populations, and also from one another, despite being geographically proximate. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we dated the origins of these genetic patterns to periods of intensive mining activity. The historical split of contemporary metal-impacted populations from clean-river fish dated to the Medieval period. Moreover, we observed two distinct genetic populations of trout within a single catchment and dated their divergence to the Industrial Revolution. Our investigation thus provides an evaluation of contemporary population genetics in showing how human-altered landscapes can change the genetic makeup of a species. PMID:26136823

Selected Demographic Characteristics of the U.S. Hispanic Population and of Hispanic Subgroups. A Report Prepared by the Congressional Research Service for the Subcommittee on Census and Population of the Committee on Post Office and Civil Service, U.S. House of Representatives. 99th Congress, 2d Session.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Library of Congress, Washington, DC. Congressional Research Service.

The report compares U.S. Hispanic subgroups with regard to five demographic statistics: (1) Geographic Distribution: the greatest number of Hispanics are found in Texas, California, New York and Florida. (2) Age Structure and Fertility: Hispanics are generally younger than the U.S. population, except for Cubans who are usually older. Mexicans have…

[Population changes and social welfare tasks].

PubMed

Lee, H K

1985-07-01

Efforts to control population growth made during the last 20 years are expected to maintain a stable population in the future. We cannot limit our concern to the control of population growth but must consider the social welfare task in the aspect of population stability. It is not because population changes set limits to artificial control, but because the order of population changes presents a desirable sign for low fertility. Another important concern is to pay attention to how to make human beings already born and those to be born in the future enjoy their quality of life. Socioeconomic stability requires economic stabilization to meet basic essential needs. Changes in population structure, along with the quantitative growth of population, make changes in patterns of social welfare demands. When the pyramid type of population structure becomes changed to the bell or pot type of population structure, changes in education and employment as well as changes in problems of the aged and medical demands must be made. On the other hand, population changes accompany value changes in the process of modernization of society. These multiple social changes bring about a value of individualism and a nuclear family norm, and an enlargement of women's social participation which, in turn, can cause family problems. At the same time, social deviations and failures may be increased in the industrial society, and, thus, welfare countermeasures have to be taken. In this respect, the base of social welfare for meeting basic demands must be formed not in the past, narrow sense but in the long range and multisided aspects.

Walleye population and fishery responses after elimination of legal harvest on Escanaba Lake, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haglund, Justin M.; Isermann, Daniel A.; Sass, Greg G.

2016-01-01

Implementing harvest regulations to eliminate or substantially reduce (≥90%) the exploitation of Walleyes Sander vitreus in recreational fisheries may increase population size structure, but these measures also could reduce angler effort because many Walleye anglers are harvest oriented. We analyzed data collected during 1995–2015 to determine whether Walleye population and fishery metrics in Escanaba Lake, Wisconsin, changed after a minimum TL limit of 71 cm with a one-fish daily bag limit was implemented in 2003. This change eliminated the legal harvest of Walleyes after several decades during which annual exploitation averaged 34%. We detected a significant increase in the loge density of adult females after the regulation change, but the loge density of all adults and adult males did not differ between periods. Mean TL of adult males was significantly greater after the regulation change, but the mean TL of females and the proportional size distribution of preferred-length fish (≥51 cm TL) were similar between periods. Sex-specific mean TLs at age 5 did not differ between periods. Loge density of age-0 Walleyes did not change after 2003, but variation in age-0 density was lower. Total angler effort and the effort for anglers targeting Walleyes were significantly lower (35% and 60% declines, respectively) after the regulation change, whereas catch rates for both angler categories did not differ between periods. Our results suggest that implementing highly restrictive regulations that greatly reduce or eliminate legal harvest will not always increase angler catch rates and population size structure. Highly restrictive regulations may also deter anglers from using a fishery when many other fisheries are available. Our findings are useful for fishery managers who may work with anglers holding the belief that lower exploitation is a potential remedy for low Walleye size structure, even when density and growth suggest that there is limited potential for improvement.

Estimating the impact of Trypanosoma evansi infection (surra) on buffalo population dynamics in southern Philippines using data from cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Dargantes, A P; Mercado, R T; Dobson, R J; Reid, S A

2009-08-01

Despite the widespread problem with surra (Trypanosoma evansi) in livestock, there are no published studies on its impact on host populations, probably because of the large financial and time cost involved in performing longitudinal studies. During 2002-6, a cross-sectional survey for T. evansi infection involving 1732 buffaloes from 71 villages in southern Philippines was carried out. Other livestock animals (horses, cattle and goats) in every surveyed village were also tested for infection with T. evansi but domestic buffaloes were the primary survey target. Seroprevalence ranged from 6% to 21% and 13% to 100% for buffaloes in low and high risk areas, respectively. Key demographic parameters were estimated from the age structured distributions of the sampled buffalo population for each sex. All areas were dominated by females (69%) and the annual calving rate for areas of 100% and low seroprevalence was 15% and 47%, respectively. Males were removed at a relatively high annual rate of 27% in all areas. In the main reproductive years (4-10) female removal/mortality was <1% and 10% for low and high risk areas, respectively. Older females were removed/died at a rate similar to males regardless of area. In high risk areas there were consistently more 2-year than 1-year old females and the reverse was true for the low risk areas. This implies that females were imported to the high risk areas for breeding. By assuming a stable age structure and similar size populations in each area, it was estimated that 28% of female calves need to be moved from low to high risk areas to maintain the observed age structure. In high risk areas, surra imposes significant financial losses due to reduced fertility, high mortality/removal rate and the necessity to import replacement buffaloes.

The Influence of Life History Milestones and Association Networks on Crop-Raiding Behavior in Male African Elephants

PubMed Central

Chiyo, Patrick I.; Moss, Cynthia J.; Alberts, Susan C.

2012-01-01

Factors that influence learning and the spread of behavior in wild animal populations are important for understanding species responses to changing environments and for species conservation. In populations of wildlife species that come into conflict with humans by raiding cultivated crops, simple models of exposure of individual animals to crops do not entirely explain the prevalence of crop raiding behavior. We investigated the influence of life history milestones using age and association patterns on the probability of being a crop raider among wild free ranging male African elephants; we focused on males because female elephants are not known to raid crops in our study population. We examined several features of an elephant association network; network density, community structure and association based on age similarity since they are known to influence the spread of behaviors in a population. We found that older males were more likely to be raiders than younger males, that males were more likely to be raiders when their closest associates were also raiders, and that males were more likely to be raiders when their second closest associates were raiders older than them. The male association network had sparse associations, a tendency for individuals similar in age and raiding status to associate, and a strong community structure. However, raiders were randomly distributed between communities. These features of the elephant association network may limit the spread of raiding behavior and likely determine the prevalence of raiding behavior in elephant populations. Our results suggest that social learning has a major influence on the acquisition of raiding behavior in younger males whereas life history factors are important drivers of raiding behavior in older males. Further, both life-history and network patterns may influence the acquisition and spread of complex behaviors in animal populations and provide insight on managing human-wildlife conflict. PMID:22347468

Ageing increases reliance on sensorimotor prediction through structural and functional differences in frontostriatal circuits

PubMed Central

Wolpe, Noham; Ingram, James N.; Tsvetanov, Kamen A.; Geerligs, Linda; Kievit, Rogier A.; Henson, Richard N.; Wolpert, Daniel M.; Tyler, Lorraine K.; Brayne, Carol; Bullmore, Edward; Calder, Andrew; Cusack, Rhodri; Dalgleish, Tim; Duncan, John; Matthews, Fiona E.; Marslen-Wilson, William; Shafto, Meredith A.; Campbell, Karen; Cheung, Teresa; Davis, Simon; McCarrey, Anna; Mustafa, Abdur; Price, Darren; Samu, David; Taylor, Jason R.; Treder, Matthias; van Belle, Janna; Williams, Nitin; Bates, Lauren; Emery, Tina; Erzinçlioglu, Sharon; Gadie, Andrew; Gerbase, Sofia; Georgieva, Stanimira; Hanley, Claire; Parkin, Beth; Troy, David; Auer, Tibor; Correia, Marta; Gao, Lu; Green, Emma; Henriques, Rafael; Allen, Jodie; Amery, Gillian; Amunts, Liana; Barcroft, Anne; Castle, Amanda; Dias, Cheryl; Dowrick, Jonathan; Fair, Melissa; Fisher, Hayley; Goulding, Anna; Grewal, Adarsh; Hale, Geoff; Hilton, Andrew; Johnson, Frances; Johnston, Patricia; Kavanagh-Williamson, Thea; Kwasniewska, Magdalena; McMinn, Alison; Norman, Kim; Penrose, Jessica; Roby, Fiona; Rowland, Diane; Sargeant, John; Squire, Maggie; Stevens, Beth; Stoddart, Aldabra; Stone, Cheryl; Thompson, Tracy; Yazlik, Ozlem; Barnes, Dan; Dixon, Marie; Hillman, Jaya; Mitchell, Joanne; Villis, Laura; Rowe, James B.

2016-01-01

The control of voluntary movement changes markedly with age. A critical component of motor control is the integration of sensory information with predictions of the consequences of action, arising from internal models of movement. This leads to sensorimotor attenuation—a reduction in the perceived intensity of sensations from self-generated compared with external actions. Here we show that sensorimotor attenuation occurs in 98% of adults in a population-based cohort (n=325; 18–88 years; the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience). Importantly, attenuation increases with age, in proportion to reduced sensory sensitivity. This effect is associated with differences in the structure and functional connectivity of the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA), assessed with magnetic resonance imaging. The results suggest that ageing alters the balance between the sensorium and predictive models, mediated by the pre-SMA and its connectivity in frontostriatal circuits. This shift may contribute to the motor and cognitive changes observed with age. PMID:27694879

Ageing increases reliance on sensorimotor prediction through structural and functional differences in frontostriatal circuits.

PubMed

Wolpe, Noham; Ingram, James N; Tsvetanov, Kamen A; Geerligs, Linda; Kievit, Rogier A; Henson, Richard N; Wolpert, Daniel M; Rowe, James B

2016-10-03

The control of voluntary movement changes markedly with age. A critical component of motor control is the integration of sensory information with predictions of the consequences of action, arising from internal models of movement. This leads to sensorimotor attenuation-a reduction in the perceived intensity of sensations from self-generated compared with external actions. Here we show that sensorimotor attenuation occurs in 98% of adults in a population-based cohort (n=325; 18-88 years; the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience). Importantly, attenuation increases with age, in proportion to reduced sensory sensitivity. This effect is associated with differences in the structure and functional connectivity of the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA), assessed with magnetic resonance imaging. The results suggest that ageing alters the balance between the sensorium and predictive models, mediated by the pre-SMA and its connectivity in frontostriatal circuits. This shift may contribute to the motor and cognitive changes observed with age.

Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies

PubMed Central

Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G.

2017-01-01

Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire. PMID:28696282

Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies.

PubMed

Diekmann, Yoan; Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Page, Abigail E; Chaudhary, Nikhil; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G

2017-08-01

Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire.

Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

PubMed

Lee, R

1983-01-01

There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in the consequences of population in both developed and developing countries. In general cross national studies have failed to provide rough and stylized depiction of the consequences of rapid population growth, unless the absence of significant results is itself the result.

Genetic structure among continental and island populations of gyrfalcons.

PubMed

Johnson, Jeff A; Burnham, Kurt K; Burnham, William A; Mindell, David P

2007-08-01

Little is known about the possible influence that past glacial events have had on the phylogeography and population structure of avian predators in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. In this study, we use microsatellite and mitochondrial control region DNA variation to investigate the population genetic structure of gyrfalcons (Falco rusticolus) throughout a large portion of their circumpolar distribution. In most locations sampled, the mtDNA data revealed little geographic structure; however, five out of eight mtDNA haplotypes were unique to a particular geographic area (Greenland, Iceland, or Alaska) and the Iceland population differed from others based on haplotype frequency differences (F(ST)). With the microsatellite results, significant population structure (F(ST), principal components analysis, and cluster analysis) was observed identifying Greenland and Iceland as separate populations, while Norway, Alaska and Canada were identified as a single population consistent with contemporary gene flow across Russia. Within Greenland, differing levels of gene flow between western and eastern sampling locations was indicated with apparent asymmetric dispersal in western Greenland from north to south. This dispersal bias is in agreement with the distribution of plumage colour variants with white gyrfalcons in much higher proportion in northern Greenland. Lastly, because the mtDNA control region sequence differed by only one to four nucleotides from a common haplotype among all gyrfalcons, we infer that the observed microsatellite population genetic structure has developed since the last glacial maximum. This conclusion is further supported by our finding that a closely related species, the saker falcon (Falco cherrug), has greater genetic heterogeneity, including mtDNA haplotypes differing by 1-16 nucleotide substitutions from a common gyrfalcon haplotype. This is consistent with gyrfalcons having expanded rapidly from a single glacial-age refugium to their current circumpolar distribution. Additional sampling of gyrfalcons from Fennoscandia and Russia throughout Siberia is necessary to test putative gene flow between Norway and Alaska and Canada as suggested by this study.

The containment of world population growth.

PubMed

Caldwell, J C

1975-12-01

The world has reached the present position of unprecedentedly rapid population growth not by achieving uniquely high fertility but by bringing about extraordinarily low mortality. The high growth rate and the built-in momentum of the age structure are obstacles to achievement of an acceptable standard of living for most of the world's population. Although government population programs have the potential to curb this growth rate, this potential has not been realized, and such programs are too often perceived both by their administrators and the population concerned as an end in themselves rather than a means toward a better standard of living. It is in this latter perspective, and in the context of the total development process, that population programs should be implemented.

Predation by Northern Pikeminnow and tiger muskellunge on juvenile salmonids in a high–head reservoir: Implications for anadromous fish reintroductions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorel, Mark H.; Hansen, Adam G.; Connelly, Kristin A.; Wilson, Andrew C.; Lowery, Erin D.; Beauchamp, David A.

2016-01-01

The feasibility of reintroducing anadromous salmonids into reservoirs above high-head dams is affected by the suitability of the reservoir habitat for rearing and the interactions of the resident fish with introduced fish. We evaluated the predation risk to anadromous salmonids considered for reintroduction in Merwin Reservoir on the North Fork Lewis River in Washington State for two reservoir use-scenarios: year-round rearing and smolt migration. We characterized the role of the primary predators, Northern Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis and tiger muskellunge (Northern Pike Esox lucius × Muskellunge E. masquinongy), by using stable isotopes and stomach content analysis, quantified seasonal, per capita predation using bioenergetics modeling, and evaluated the size and age structures of the populations. We then combined these inputs to estimate predation rates of size-structured population units. Northern Pikeminnow of FL ≥ 300 mm were highly cannibalistic and exhibited modest, seasonal, per capita predation on salmonids, but they were disproportionately much less abundant than smaller, less piscivorous, conspecifics. The annual predation on kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka (in biomass) by a size-structured unit of 1,000 Northern Pikeminnow having a FL ≥ 300 mm was analogous to 16,000–40,000 age-0 spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha rearing year-round, or 400–1,000 age-1 smolts migrating April–June. The per capita consumption of salmonids by Northern Pikeminnow having a FL ≥ 200 mm was relatively low, due in large part to spatial segregation during the summer and the skewed size distribution of the predator population. Tiger muskellunge fed heavily on Northern Pikeminnow, other nonsalmonids, and minimally on salmonids. In addition to cannibalism within the Northern Pikeminnow population, predation by tiger muskellunge likely contributed to the low recruitment of larger (more piscivorous) Northern Pikeminnow, thereby decreasing the risk of predation to salmonids. This study highlights the importance of evaluating trophic interactions within reservoirs slated for reintroduction with anadromous salmonids, as they can be functional migration corridors and may offer profitable juvenile-rearing habitats despite hosting abundant predator populations.

Inferring the Structure of Social Contacts from Demographic Data in the Analysis of Infectious Diseases Spread

PubMed Central

Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Manfredi, Piero; Vespignani, Alessandro; Merler, Stefano

2012-01-01

Social contact patterns among individuals encode the transmission route of infectious diseases and are a key ingredient in the realistic characterization and modeling of epidemics. Unfortunately, the gathering of high quality experimental data on contact patterns in human populations is a very difficult task even at the coarse level of mixing patterns among age groups. Here we propose an alternative route to the estimation of mixing patterns that relies on the construction of virtual populations parametrized with highly detailed census and demographic data. We present the modeling of the population of 26 European countries and the generation of the corresponding synthetic contact matrices among the population age groups. The method is validated by a detailed comparison with the matrices obtained in six European countries by the most extensive survey study on mixing patterns. The methodology presented here allows a large scale comparison of mixing patterns in Europe, highlighting general common features as well as country-specific differences. We find clear relations between epidemiologically relevant quantities (reproduction number and attack rate) and socio-demographic characteristics of the populations, such as the average age of the population and the duration of primary school cycle. This study provides a numerical approach for the generation of human mixing patterns that can be used to improve the accuracy of mathematical models in the absence of specific experimental data. PMID:23028275

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Self-reported quality of life measure is reliable and valid in adult patients suffering from schizophrenia with executive impairment.

PubMed

Baumstarck, Karine; Boyer, Laurent; Boucekine, Mohamed; Aghababian, Valérie; Parola, Nathalie; Lançon, Christophe; Auquier, Pascal

2013-06-01

Impaired executive functions are among the most widely observed in patients suffering from schizophrenia. The use of self-reported outcomes for evaluating treatment and managing care of these patients has been questioned. The aim of this study was to provide new evidence about the suitability of self-reported outcome for use in this specific population by exploring the internal structure, reliability and external validity of a specific quality of life (QoL) instrument, the Schizophrenia Quality of Life questionnaire (SQoL18). cross-sectional study. age over 18 years, diagnosis of schizophrenia according to the DSM-IV criteria. sociodemographic (age, gender, and education level) and clinical data (duration of illness, Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia); QoL (SQoL18); and executive performance (Stroop test, lexical and verbal fluency, and trail-making test). Non-impaired and impaired populations were defined for each of the three tests. For the six groups, psychometric properties were compared to those reported from the reference population assessed in the validation study. One hundred and thirteen consecutive patients were enrolled. The factor analysis performed in the impaired groups showed that the questionnaire structure adequately matched the initial structure of the SQoL18. The unidimensionality of the dimensions was preserved, and the internal/external validity indices were close to those of the non-impaired groups and the reference population. Our study suggests that executive dysfunction did not compromise the reliability or validity of self-reported disease-specific QoL questionnaire. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Asymmetry of Hemispheric Network Topology Reveals Dissociable Processes between Functional and Structural Brain Connectome in Community-Living Elders

PubMed Central

Sun, Yu; Li, Junhua; Suckling, John; Feng, Lei

2017-01-01

Human brain is structurally and functionally asymmetrical and the asymmetries of brain phenotypes have been shown to change in normal aging. Recent advances in graph theoretical analysis have showed topological lateralization between hemispheric networks in the human brain throughout the lifespan. Nevertheless, apparent discrepancies of hemispheric asymmetry were reported between the structural and functional brain networks, indicating the potentially complex asymmetry patterns between structural and functional networks in aging population. In this study, using multimodal neuroimaging (resting-state fMRI and structural diffusion tensor imaging), we investigated the characteristics of hemispheric network topology in 76 (male/female = 15/61, age = 70.08 ± 5.30 years) community-dwelling older adults. Hemispheric functional and structural brain networks were obtained for each participant. Graph theoretical approaches were then employed to estimate the hemispheric topological properties. We found that the optimal small-world properties were preserved in both structural and functional hemispheric networks in older adults. Moreover, a leftward asymmetry in both global and local levels were observed in structural brain networks in comparison with a symmetric pattern in functional brain network, suggesting a dissociable process of hemispheric asymmetry between structural and functional connectome in healthy older adults. Finally, the scores of hemispheric asymmetry in both structural and functional networks were associated with behavioral performance in various cognitive domains. Taken together, these findings provide new insights into the lateralized nature of multimodal brain connectivity, highlight the potentially complex relationship between structural and functional brain network alterations, and augment our understanding of asymmetric structural and functional specializations in normal aging. PMID:29209197

Genetic genealogy comes of age: perspectives on the use of deep-rooted pedigrees in human population genetics.

PubMed

Larmuseau, M H D; Van Geystelen, A; van Oven, M; Decorte, R

2013-04-01

In this article, we promote the implementation of extensive genealogical data in population genetic studies. Genealogical records can provide valuable information on the origin of DNA donors in a population genetic study, going beyond the commonly collected data such as residence, birthplace, language, and self-reported ethnicity. Recent studies demonstrated that extended genealogical data added to surname analysis can be crucial to detect signals of (past) population stratification and to interpret the population structure in a more objective manner. Moreover, when in-depth pedigree data are combined with haploid markers, it is even possible to disentangle signals of temporal differentiation within a population genetic structure during the last centuries. Obtaining genealogical data for all DNA donors in a population genetic study is a labor-intensive task but the vastly growing (genetic) genealogical databases, due to the broad interest of the public, are making this job more time-efficient if there is a guarantee for sufficient data quality. At the end, we discuss the advantages and pitfalls of using genealogy within sampling campaigns and we provide guidelines for future population genetic studies. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessing aging stereotypes: Personal stereotypes, self-stereotypes and self-perception of aging.

PubMed

Fernández-Ballesteros, Rocío; Olmos, Ricardo; Santacreu, Marta; Bustillos, Antonio; Schettini, Rocío; Huici, Carmen; Rivera, José M

2017-11-01

There is a broad semantic network of aging stereotypes; where different concepts and their measurement are confused: personal stereotypes, self-stereotypes and self-perception of aging. First, we analyze the translated version of the Image of Aging Scale (IAS) measurement model through exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, with two representative sub-samples of the Spanish population aged over eighteen (N = 1,105) and in a sample of gerontologists and geriatricians (N = 325). Second, in an effort to disentangle the theoretical relationships between personal stereotypes, self-stereotypes and self-perception of aging, both the IAS (with different instructions) and Lawton’s 5-item scale were administered to a representative sample of Spanish people over 50. Our results indicate that the Spanish version of the IAS has a similar psychometric structure to that proposed by the authors. Furthermore, the factorial structure (equal form and metric invariance) is replicated in both samples, but latent means and factor correlations were higher in the professional group. We discuss Levy’s theoretical assumptions about personal-stereotypes and the self-stereotype measured with IAS and their relationship to self-perception of ageing.

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Aboriginal population prospects.

PubMed

Gray, A; Tesfaghiorghis, H

1993-11-01

The authors examine data from the 1986 and 1991 Australian censuses to assess discrepancies between the census data and past projections of the size and structure of the Aboriginal population. They also "comment on ways in which determinants of Aboriginal population change are diverging from the parameters used for previous projections. We pay particular attention to mortality prospects.... We note the evidence for under-enumeration of the Aboriginal population in particular age groups in the 1991 Census as in previous censuses, and estimate the size of adjustments necessary to correct for some, but not all, of these deficiencies. The analysis shows that Aboriginal fertility increased in the second half of the 1980s." excerpt

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Fetal Biometry Studies of Malaysian Pregnant Women and Comparison with International Charts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, N.; Ramli, R. M.; Jaafar, M. S.

2010-07-01

Fetal biometry is a measurement done on fetus anatomy to relate the fetus growth with gestational age (GA). In this study [1], fetal biometry that was studied consists of biparietal diameter (BPD), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL). Studies were carried out at Maternity Unit, Hospital Pulau Penang. From the finding, it is understood that fetal biometry distinguish the normal from abnormal fetal structures and it vary among different populations, depending upon their racial [2,3] and nutrition [4,5,6]. True findings are valuable in estimating the gestational age of the fetus, abnormalities in fetus and the consideration of maternal health specific to the Malaysian population.

Computer simulation of the coffee leaf miner using sexual Penna aging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, A. C. S.; Martins, S. G. F.; Zacarias, M. S.

2008-01-01

Forecast models based on climatic conditions are of great interest in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs. The success of these models depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of the temperature effect on the pests’ population dynamics. In this direction, a computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of the coffee leaf miner, L. coffeella, at different temperatures, considering experimental data relative to the pest. The age structure was inserted into the dynamics through sexual Penna Model. The results obtained, such as life expectancy, growth rate and annual generations’ number, in agreement to those in laboratory and field conditions, show that the simulation can be used as a forecast model for controlling L. coffeella.

Dance for Individuals With Dementia.

PubMed

Lapum, Jennifer L; Bar, Rachel J

2016-03-01

The movement and music associated with dance plays an important role in many individuals' lives and can become imprinted upon the body and mind. Dance is thus closely associated with memory because of these deep connections. Without conscious thought, dance has the potential to be initiated as individuals age. In the current article, the authors share narrative reflections about their experiences with, and the potential of, dance as an intervention for aging populations diagnosed with dementia-related diseases. They draw upon their experiences in working with the aging population and a dance program currently being developed by Canada's National Ballet School and Baycrest Health Sciences for individuals with dementia-related diseases in long-term care. The current article is structured as dialogue between the authors because it mimics dance as a dialogical encounter between movement and music, and/or between individuals. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Life-History Traits of the Miocene Hipparion concudense (Spain) Inferred from Bone Histological Structure

PubMed Central

Martinez-Maza, Cayetana; Alberdi, Maria Teresa; Nieto-Diaz, Manuel; Prado, José Luis

2014-01-01

Histological analyses of fossil bones have provided clues on the growth patterns and life history traits of several extinct vertebrates that would be unavailable for classical morphological studies. We analyzed the bone histology of Hipparion to infer features of its life history traits and growth pattern. Microscope analysis of thin sections of a large sample of humeri, femora, tibiae and metapodials of Hipparion concudense from the upper Miocene site of Los Valles de Fuentidueña (Segovia, Spain) has shown that the number of growth marks is similar among the different limb bones, suggesting that equivalent skeletochronological inferences for this Hipparion population might be achieved by means of any of the elements studied. Considering their abundance, we conducted a skeletechronological study based on the large sample of third metapodials from Los Valles de Fuentidueña together with another large sample from the Upper Miocene locality of Concud (Teruel, Spain). The data obtained enabled us to distinguish four age groups in both samples and to determine that Hipparion concudense tended to reach skeletal maturity during its third year of life. Integration of bone microstructure and skeletochronological data allowed us to identify ontogenetic changes in bone structure and growth rate and to distinguish three histologic ontogenetic stages corresponding to immature, subadult and adult individuals. Data on secondary osteon density revealed an increase in bone remodeling throughout the ontogenetic stages and a lesser degree thereof in the Concud population, which indicates different biomechanical stresses in the two populations, likely due to environmental differences. Several individuals showed atypical growth patterns in the Concud sample, which may also reflect environmental differences between the two localities. Finally, classification of the specimens’ age within groups enabled us to characterize the age structure of both samples, which is typical of attritional assemblages. PMID:25098950

A Conceptual Model of Riparian Forest Response to Channel Abandonment on Meandering Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Hayden, M. K.; Battles, J. J.; Piegay, H.; Dufour, S.; Fremier, A. K.

2008-12-01

On alluvial rivers, hydrogeomorphic regimes exert a primary control on the regeneration of pioneer riparian forest stands and thus their composition and age structure. Seasonal flow patterns provide the necessary conditions for recruitment, and channel migration drives patterns of forest stand dynamics. To date, studies of pioneer riparian forest structure have focused primarily on point bar habitats, where woody vegetation typically recruits with decadal frequency in even-aged bands parallel to the river margin. However, there are indications that other recruitment pathways exist and can be important from a population and conservation perspective. On floodplains where channel migration occurs as infrequent cutoff or avulsion events, the geometry and position of the old channel relative to the new one determines rates and patterns of sedimentation and flood frequency. These conditions provide a brief opportunity for forest recruitment, and geomorphic evolution of the former channel habitat in turn influences forest dynamics. The population implications of this alternative forest regeneration pathway depend on the temporal dynamics of channel abandonment versus the rate of lateral channel migration. Preliminary analysis indicates that the geographic scope of this ecogeomorphological process is sizable. Along the Sacramento River (CA) and Ain River (France), for example, cottonwood-dominated stands associated with abandoned channels tend to be less frequent in number (38% of all stands) but larger in area (accounting for 53% of all forest area) relative to forest stands associated with laterally migrating point bars. Dendrochronological analysis confirms that tree ages in floodplain stands corresponds to the first decade after channel abandonment. These data indicate that changes to the rate and scale of channel abandonment due to human and climatic alterations to the flow regime will likely influence riparian corridor-wide tree population structure and forest dynamics.

Assessing age stereotypes in the German population in 1996 and 2011: socio-demographic correlates and shift over time.

PubMed

Spangenberg, Lena; Zenger, Markus; Glaesmer, Heide; Brähler, Elmar; Strauss, Bernhard

2018-03-01

The present study aimed to extend the knowledge regarding dimensionality, socio-demographic correlates and shifts in age stereotypes over the past 15 years using a time-sequential design. In 1996 and 2011, we assessed age stereotypes in two independent samples of the German population aged ≥ 45 years ( N  = 970 in sample 1, N  = 1545 in sample 2). Three scales with six items each were assessed. Two scales cover negative (i.e., rigidity/isolation, burden), and one scale covers positive age stereotypes (wisdom/experience). Dimensionality of the scale, associations with socio-demographic variables and whether the stereotypes have shifted were tested using confirmatory factor analyses, structural equation modeling and analyses of variances. Three dimensions were identified and replicated following an exploratory as well as a confirmatory approach. Age stereotypes did shift between 1996 and 2011 in the dimension burden (i.e., becoming more negative). Our results further underpin the finding that age stereotypes are multifaceted and suggest that dimensions do not change over time. Additionally, our data provide some evidence that societal age stereotypes partly change over time.

Population-specific association of genes for telomere-associated proteins with longevity in an Italian population.

PubMed

Crocco, Paolina; Barale, Roberto; Rose, Giuseppina; Rizzato, Cosmeri; Santoro, Aurelia; De Rango, Francesco; Carrai, Maura; Fogar, Paola; Monti, Daniela; Biondi, Fiammetta; Bucci, Laura; Ostan, Rita; Tallaro, Federica; Montesanto, Alberto; Zambon, Carlo-Federico; Franceschi, Claudio; Canzian, Federico; Passarino, Giuseppe; Campa, Daniele

2015-06-01

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) has been observed to be hereditable and correlated with longevity. However, contrasting results have been reported in different populations on the value of LTL heritability and on how biology of telomeres influences longevity. We investigated whether the variability of genes correlated to telomere maintenance is associated with telomere length and affects longevity in a population from Southern Italy (20-106 years). For this purpose we analyzed thirty-one polymorphisms in eight telomerase-associated genes of which twelve in the genes coding for the core enzyme (TERT and TERC) and the remaining in genes coding for components of the telomerase complex (TERF1, TERF2, TERF2IP, TNKS, TNKS2 and TEP1). We did not observe (after correcting for multiple testing) statistically significant associations between SNPs and LTL, possibly suggesting a low genetic influence of the variability of these genes on LTL in the elderly. On the other hand, we found that the variability of genes encoding for TERF1 and TNKS2, not directly involved in LTL, but important for keeping the integrity of the structure, shows a significant association with longevity. This suggests that the maintenance of these chromosomal structures may be critically important for preventing, or delaying, senescence and aging. Such a correlation was not observed in a population from northern Italy that we used as an independent replication set. This discrepancy is in line with previous reports regarding both the population specificity of results on telomere biology and the differences of aging in northern and southern Italy.

[Analysis of the genetic and demographic structure of populations from Aginskii Buryat district contrasting in habitation conditions].

PubMed

Tabikhanov, L E; Osipova, L P

2012-12-01

Genetic and demographic characteristics of populations from two settlements from the Aginskii Buryat district of Trans-Baikal krai (Alkhanai and Orlovskii) were studied. It was demonstrated that the mononational Buryat settlement of Alkhanai, located in the agrarian Dul'durginskii region of the district far from large settlements and transport highways, is characterized by a large prereproductive volume (45%) and by a small share of individuals from the elderly age group (16.4%). A shift in age characteristics in the Buryat group (36.6 and 22.4%, respectively) was detected in the urban settlement of Orlovskii with a population of mixed ethnic composition, located in a densely populated industrialized part of the district. A modified sex ratio was also demonstrated in Alkhanai as opposed to the Buryat part of the Orlovskii population (sex indices were 0.94 and 0.99). Analysis of population mixture was conducted; marriage structure and migrations were described. The endogamy index of the Alkhanai locality was 0.41; in the group of Buryats from Orlovskii, 0.09. A decrease in the amount of pregnancies and births and a larger distribution of family planning practice among Buryats from Orlovskii were detected. The average amount of births of living children per woman in Alkhanai was 5.11; in Buryats from Orlovskii, 3.90. The selection pressure was estimated as low by means of the Crow index (I(tot) 0.28-0.48). In all described groups, a component that characterizes differential fertility (I(f)) exceeds the child mortality component (I(m)).

Population density and phenotypic attributes influence the level of nematode parasitism in roe deer.

PubMed

Body, Guillaume; Ferté, Hubert; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Delorme, Daniel; Klein, François; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle

2011-11-01

The impact of parasites on population dynamics is well documented, but less is known on how host population density affects parasite spread. This relationship is difficult to assess because of confounding effects of social structure, population density, and environmental conditions that lead to biased among-population comparisons. Here, we analyzed the infestation by two groups of nematodes (gastro-intestinal (GI) strongyles and Trichuris) in the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population of Trois Fontaines (France) between 1997 and 2007. During this period, we experimentally manipulated population density through changes in removals. Using measures collected on 297 individuals, we quantified the impact of density on parasite spread after taking into account possible influences of date, age, sex, body mass, and weather conditions. The prevalence and abundance of eggs of both parasites in females were positively related to roe deer density, except Trichuris in adult females. We also found a negative relationship between parasitism and body mass, and strong age and sex-dependent patterns of parasitism. Prime-age adults were less often parasitized and had lower fecal egg counts than fawns or old individuals, and males were more heavily and more often infected than females. Trichuris parasites were not affected by weather, whereas GI strongyles were less present after dry and hot summers. In the range of observed densities, the observed effect of density likely involves a variation of the exposure rate, as opposed to variation in host susceptibility.

Influence of breeding habitat on bear predation and age at maturity and sexual dimorphism of sockeye salmon populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quinn, Thomas P.; Wetzel, Lisa A.; Bishop, Susan; Overberg, Kristi; Rogers, Donald E.

2001-01-01

Age structure and morphology differ among Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations. Sexual selection and reproductive capacity (fecundity and egg size) generally favor large (old), deep-bodied fish. We hypothesized that natural selection from physical access to spawning grounds and size-biased predation by bears, Ursus spp., opposes such large, deep-bodied salmon. Accordingly, size and shape of salmon should vary predictably among spawning habitats. We tested this hypothesis by measuring the age composition and body depth of sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, and the intensity of predation in a range of breeding habitats in southwestern Alaska. Stream width was positively correlated with age at maturity and negatively correlated with predation level. However, salmon spawning on lake beaches were not consistently old, indicating that different factors affect age in riverine- and beach-spawning populations. Body depths of male and female salmon were positively correlated with water depth across all sites, as predicted. However, the mouths of some streams were so shallow that they might select against large or deep-bodied salmon, even in the absence of bear predation. Taken together, the results indicated that habitat has direct and indirect effects (via predation) on life history and morphology of mature salmon.

Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

2008-01-01

Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Domestic dog demographic structure and dynamics relevant to rabies control planning in urban areas in Africa: the case of Iringa, Tanzania

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Mass vaccinations of domestic dogs have been shown to effectively control canine rabies and hence human exposure to rabies. Knowledge of dog population demography is essential for planning effective rabies vaccination programmes; however, such information is still rare for African domestic dog populations, particularly so in urban areas. This study describes the demographic structure and population dynamics of a domestic dog population in an urban sub-Saharan African setting. In July to November 2005, we conducted a full household-level census and a cross-sectional dog demography survey in four urban wards of Iringa Municipality, Tanzania. The achievable vaccination coverage was assessed by a two-stage vaccination campaign, and the proportion of feral dogs was estimated by a mark-recapture transect study. Results The estimated size of the domestic dog population in Iringa was six times larger than official town records assumed, however, the proportion of feral dogs was estimated to account for less than 1% of the whole population. An average of 13% of all households owned dogs which equalled a dog:human ratio of 1:14, or 0.31 dogs per household or 334 dogs km-2. Dog female:male ratio was 1:1.4. The average age of the population was 2.2 years, 52% of all individuals were less than one year old. But mortality within the first year was high (72%). Females became fertile at the age of 10 months and reportedly remained fertile up to the age of 11 years. The average number of litters whelped per fertile female per year was 0.6 with an average of 5.5 pups born per litter. The population growth was estimated at 10% y-1. Conclusions Such high birth and death rates result in a rapid replacement of anti-rabies immunised individuals with susceptible ones. This loss in herd immunity needs to be taken into account in the design of rabies control programmes. The very small proportion of truly feral dogs in the population implies that vaccination campaigns aimed at the owned dog population are sufficient to control rabies in urban Iringa, and the same may be valid in other, comparable urban settings. PMID:23217194

Habitat selection by breeding waterbirds at ponds with size-structured fish populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloskowski, Janusz; Nieoczym, Marek; Polak, Marcin; Pitucha, Piotr

2010-07-01

Fish may significantly affect habitat use by birds, either as their prey or as competitors. Fish communities are often distinctly size-structured, but the consequences for waterbird assemblages remain poorly understood. We examined the effects of size structure of common carp ( Cyprinus carpio) cohorts together with other biotic and abiotic pond characteristics on the distribution of breeding waterbirds in a seminatural system of monocultured ponds, where three fish age classes were separately stocked. Fish age corresponded to a distinct fish size gradient. Fish age and total biomass, macroinvertebrate and amphibian abundance, and emergent vegetation best explained the differences in bird density between ponds. Abundance of animal prey other than fish (aquatic macroinvertebrates and larval amphibians) decreased with increasing carp age in the ponds. Densities of ducks and smaller grebes were strongly negatively associated with fish age/size gradient. The largest of the grebes, the piscivorous great crested grebe ( Podiceps cristatus), was the only species that preferred ponds with medium-sized fish and was positively associated with total fish biomass. Habitat selection by bitterns and most rallids was instead strongly influenced by the relative amount of emergent vegetation cover in the ponds. Our results show that fish size structure may be an important cue for breeding habitat choice and a factor affording an opportunity for niche diversification in avian communities.

White noise and synchronization shaping the age structure of the human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cebrat, Stanislaw; Biecek, Przemyslaw; Bonkowska, Katarzyna; Kula, Mateusz

2007-06-01

We have modified the standard diploid Penna model of ageing in such a way that instead of threshold of defective loci resulting in genetic death of individuals, the fluctuation of environment and "personal" fluctuations of individuals were introduced. The sum of the both fluctuations describes the health status of the individual. While environmental fluctuations are the same for all individuals in the population, the personal component of fluctuations is composed of fluctuations corresponding to each physiological function (gene, genetic locus). It is rather accepted hypothesis that physiological parameters of any organism fluctuate highly nonlinearly. Transition to the synchronized behaviors could be a very strong diagnostic signal of the life threatening disorder. Thus, in our model, mutations of genes change the chaotic fluctuations representing the function of a wild gene to the synchronized signals generated by mutated genes. Genes are switched on chronologically, like in the standard Penna model. Accumulation of defective genes predicted by Medawar's theory of ageing leads to the replacement of uncorrelated white noise corresponding to the healthy organism by the correlated signals of defective functions. As a result we have got the age distribution of population corresponding to the human demographic data.

Obsessive-compulsive symptoms in a normative Chinese sample of youth: prevalence, symptom dimensions, and factor structure of the Leyton Obsessional Inventory--Child Version.

PubMed

Sun, Jing; Boschen, Mark J; Farrell, Lara J; Buys, Nicholas; Li, Zhan-Jiang

2014-08-01

Chinese adolescents face life stresses from multiple sources, with higher levels of stress predictive of adolescent mental health outcomes, including in the area of obsessive-compulsive disorders (OCD). Valid assessment of OCD among this age group is therefore a critical need in China. This study aims to standardise the Chinese version of the Leyton short version scale for adolescents of secondary schools in order to assess this condition. Stratified randomly selected adolescents were selected from four high schools located in Beijing, China. The Chinese version of the Leyton scale was administered to 3221 secondary school students aged between 12 and 18 years. A high response rate was achieved, with 3185 adolescents responding to the survey (98.5 percent). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) extracted four factors from the scale: compulsive thoughts, concerns of cleanliness, lucky number, repetitiveness and repeated checking. The four-factor structures were confirmed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Overall the four-factor structure had a good model fit and high levels of reliability for each individual dimension and reasonable content validity. Invariance analyses in unconstrained, factor loading, and error variance models demonstrated that the Leyton scale is invariant in relation to the presence or absence OCD, age and gender. Discriminant validity analysis demonstrated that the four-factor structure scale also had excellent ability to differentiate between OCD and non-OCD students, male and female students, and age groups. The dataset was a non-clinical sample of high school students, rather than a sample of individuals with OCD. Future research may examine symptom structure in clinical populations to assess whether this structure fits into both clinical and community population. The structure derived from the Leyton short version scale in a non-clinical secondary school sample of adolescents, suggests that a four-factor solution can be utilised as a screening tool to assess adolescents׳ psychopathological symptoms in the area of OCD in mainland Chinese non-clinical secondary school students. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global investigation of composition and interaction networks in gut microbiomes of individuals belonging to diverse geographies and age-groups.

PubMed

Yadav, Deepak; Ghosh, Tarini Shankar; Mande, Sharmila S

2016-01-01

Factors like ethnicity, diet and age of an individual have been hypothesized to play a role in determining the makeup of gut microbiome. In order to investigate the gut microbiome structure as well as the inter-microbial associations present therein, we have performed a comprehensive global comparative profiling of the structure (composition, relative heterogeneity and diversity) and the inter-microbial networks in the gut microbiomes of 399 individuals of eight different nationalities. The study identified certain geography-specific trends with respect to composition, intra-group heterogeneity and diversity of the gut microbiomes. Interestingly, the gut microbial association/mutual-exlusion networks were observed to exhibit several cross-geography trends. It was seen that though the composition of gut microbiomes of the American and European individuals were similar, there were distinct patterns in their microbial interaction networks. Amongst European gut-microbiomes, the co-occurrence network obtained for the Danish population was observed to be most dense. Distinct patterns were also observed within Chinese, Japanese and Indian datasets. While performing an age-wise comparison, it was observed that the microbial interactions increased with the age of individuals. Furthermore, certain bacterial groups were identified to be present only in the older age groups. The trends observed in gut microbial networks could be due to the inherent differences in the diet of individuals belonging to different nationalities. For example, the higher number of microbial associations in the Danish population as compared to the Spanish population, may be attributed to the evenly distributed diet of the later. This is in line with previously reported findings which indicate an increase in functional interdependency of microbes in individuals with higher nutritional status. To summarise, the present study identifies geography and age specific patterns in the composition as well as microbial interactions in gut microbiomes.

CONTRIBUTIONS OF SEXUAL AND ASEXUAL REPRODUCTION TO POPULATION STRUCTURE IN THE CLONAL SOFT CORAL, ALCYONIUM RUDYI.

PubMed

McFadden, Catherine S

1997-02-01

Numerous studies of population structure in sessile clonal marine invertebrates have demonstrated low genotypic diversity and nonequilibrium genotype frequencies within local populations that are monopolized by relatively few, highly replicated genets. All of the species studied to date produce planktonic sexual propagules capable of dispersing long distances; despite local genotypic disequilibria, populations are often panmictic over large geographic areas. The population structure paradigm these species represent may not be typical of the majority of clonal invertebrate groups, however, which are believed to produce highly philopatric sexual propagules. I used allozyme variation to examine the population structure of the temperate soft coral, Alcyonium rudyi, a typical clonal species whose sexually produced larvae and asexually produced ramets both have very low dispersal capabilities. Like other clonal plants and invertebrates, the local population dynamics of A. rudyi are dominated by asexual reproduction, and recruitment of new sexually produced genets occurs infrequently. As expected from its philopatric larval stage, estimates of genetic differentiation among populations of A. rudyi were highly significant at all spatial scales examined (mean θ = 0.300 among 20 populations spanning a 1100-km range), suggesting that genetic exchange seldom occurs among populations separated by as little as a few hundred meters. Mapping of multilocus allozyme genotypes within a dense aggregation of A. rudyi ramets confirmed that dispersal of asexual propagules is also very limited: members of the same genet usually remain within < 50 cm of one another on the same rock surface. Unlike most previously studied clonal invertebrates, populations of A. rudyi do not appear to be dominated by a few widespread genets: estimates of genotypic diversity (G o ) within 20 geographically distinct populations did not differ from expectations for outcrossing, sexual populations. Despite theoretical suggestions that philopatric dispersal combined with typically small effective population sizes should promote inbreeding in clonal species, inbreeding does not appear to contribute significantly to the population structure of A. rudyi. Genet genotype frequencies conformed to Hardy-Weinberg expectations in all populations, and inbreeding coefficients (f) were close to zero. In general, the population structure of A. rudyi did not differ significantly from that observed among outcrossing sexual species with philopatric larval dispersal. Age estimates suggest, however, that genets of A. rudyi live for many decades. Genet longevity may promote high genotypic diversity within A. rudyi populations and may be the most important evolutionary consequence of clonal reproduction in this species and the many others that share its dispersal characteristics. © 1997 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Growing population causes of unemployment.

PubMed

1995-01-01

At the March, 1995, International Meeting on Population and Social Development in Copenhagen, during the session on unemployment, underemployment, and population it was stated that the problem of employment was the extent to which a nation's labor supply was not matched by labor demand or job opportunities. Population was thus a supply factor, and the country's economic situation was a demand factor. The demographic variables that were considered important in the supply of labor were: a) the size and rate of growth of the population, which was a function of the birth rate, the death rate, and migration; and b) the age structure of the population, which was also a product of the rate of growth of the population and its distribution. An imbalance between the supply of labor and the demand for it gave rise to unemployment and underemployment. The vicious cycle generated by a high dependency burden associated with a young age-structure led to low savings and investments, which in turn led to low economic growth and a low standard of living. This produced high fertility rates, which in turn heightened the dependency burden perpetuating the cycle. This vicious cycle could be broken at only two points: at the high fertility stage, primarily by introducing family planning programs; and at the stage of low economic growth, by adopting policies to accelerate economic growth. To be successful, however, both actions had to be pursued simultaneously. Numerous participants emphasized the global nature of the issue of unemployment and underemployment; the effects of international competition and restrictive trade policies on employment opportunities. The growing disparity between North and South had created a social injustice between countries. Several participants called for more humane policies that favored democracy and promoted human development, and asked for assistance to help create an enabling environment for social and economic development.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in young Australian women is higher than previously estimated: independent estimates from a nationally representative mobile phone survey.

PubMed

Brotherton, Julia M L; Liu, Bette; Donovan, Basil; Kaldor, John M; Saville, Marion

2014-01-23

Accurate estimates of coverage are essential for estimating the population effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Australia has a purpose built National HPV Vaccination Program Register for monitoring coverage, however notification of doses administered to young women in the community during the national catch-up program (2007-2009) was not compulsory. In 2011, we undertook a population-based mobile phone survey of young women to independently estimate HPV vaccination coverage. Randomly generated mobile phone numbers were dialed to recruit women aged 22-30 (age eligible for HPV vaccination) to complete a computer assisted telephone interview. Consent was sought to validate self reported HPV vaccination status against the national register. Coverage rates were calculated based on self report and weighted to the age and state of residence structure of the Australian female population. These were compared with coverage estimates from the register using Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated resident populations as the denominator. Among the 1379 participants, the national estimate for self reported HPV vaccination coverage for doses 1/2/3, respectively, weighted for age and state of residence, was 64/59/53%. This compares with coverage of 55/45/32% and 49/40/28% based on register records, using 2007 and 2011 population data as the denominators respectively. Some significant differences in coverage between the states were identified. 20% (223) of women returned a consent form allowing validation of doses against the register and provider records: among these women 85.6% (538) of self reported doses were confirmed. We confirmed that coverage rates for young women vaccinated in the community (at age 18-26 years) are underestimated by the national register and that under-notification is greater for second and third doses. Using 2011 population estimates, rather than estimates contemporaneous with the program rollout, reduces register-based coverage estimates further because of large population increases due to immigration since the program. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The factor structure of the illness attitude scales in a German population.

PubMed

Weck, Florian; Bleichhardt, Gaby; Hiller, Wolfgang

2009-01-01

The illness attitudes scales (IAS) were developed to identify different dimensions of hypochondrical attitudes, fears, beliefs, and abnormal illness behavior (Kellner 1986). Although there are several studies which focus on the scale structure of the IAS, the factor structure has not yet been made quite clear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the factor structure of the IAS on a large representative sample. Participants (N = 1,575) comparable with the general German population regarding sex, age, and education level completed the IAS. For the data analyses, a principal components analyses with subsequent oblique rotations was used. The minimum average partial method suggested a three-factor solution. The three factors were named (1) health anxiety, (2) health behavior, and (3) health habits. Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) for the three scales were (1) alpha = 0.88, (2) alpha = 0.75, and (3) alpha = 0.56. The results support previous findings, namely that the IAS factor structure appears to be less complex than originally suggested by the author. For a sample of the general German population, a three-factor solution fit best. Further items should be added to improve the internal consistency, especially for the third scale (health habits).

Structural and functional perspectives on classification and seriation in psychotic and normal children.

PubMed

Breslow, L; Cowan, P A

1984-02-01

This study describes a strategy for examining cognitive functioning in psychotic and normal children without the usual confounding effects of marked differences in cognitive structure that occur when children of the same age are compared. Participants were 14 psychotic children, 12 males and 2 females, mean age 9-2, matched with normal children at preoperational and concrete operational stage levels on a set of Piagetian classification tasks. The mean age of the normal children was 6-4, replicating the usually found developmental delay in psychotic samples. Participants were then compared on both structural level and functional abilities on a set of tasks involving seriation of sticks; the higher-level children were also administered a seriation drawing task. Analysis of children's processes of seriating and seriation drawings indicated that over and above the structural retardation, psychotic children at all levels showed functional deficits, especially in the use of anticipatory imagery. The implications for general developmental theory are that progress in structural development is not sufficient for imaginal development, and that structural development of logical concepts is relatively independent of the development of imagery. It was suggested that "thought disorder" may not be a disordered structure of thinking or a retardation in psychotic populations but rather a mismatch between higher-level logical structures and lower-level functions.

Genetic structure of natural and restored shoalgrass Halodule wrightii populations in the NW Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Travis, S.E.; Sheridan, P.

2006-01-01

The decline of seagrass communities worldwide has sparked an urgent need for effective restoration strategies, which require a working knowledge of population genetic structure. Halodule wrighti is a common seagrass of the Caribbean region that is being restored to areas of the Gulf of Mexico, yet little is known of its population genetics. This study provides an assessment of individual, clonal and population effects on the genetic structure of 4 natural H. wrightii populations occupying 170 km of coastline in and around Galveston Bay, Texas, for comparison with 7 restored populations ranging in age from 2 to 7 yr. By using molecular markers, in the form of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs), we found considerable variation in clonal richness at the population scale (from 0.54 to 0.82), with the restored populations occupying an intermediate to high position within this range. Replicate sampling within individual seagrass beds of 3 to 5m diameter generally revealed higher levels of clonal richness, elevated by 4 to 22% over that at the population scale, suggesting that seed recruitment is more important at the local scale than at distances of >10 m. Genetic diversity was 2 to 3 times less than that expected for a widespread, outcrossing species like H. wrightii, although a 170% increase in the frequency of variable markers relative to the mean for all other populations was noted for a volunteer population that had recruited from a mixture of donor materials planted at a nearby restoration site. Within the spatial extent of this study, natural populations adhered to a model of isolation-by-distance, whereas donor materials from these same natural populations were undergoing a rapid genetic convergence within a restored site where they had been planted together. ?? Inter-Research 2006.

Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2018-02-01

Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

Secondary production of the fiddler crab Uca rapax from mangrove areas under anthropogenic eutrophication in the Western Atlantic, Brazil.

PubMed

Costa, Tarso de M M; Soares-Gomes, Abilio

2015-12-30

Fiddler crabs Uca rapax were analyzed in three mangrove areas located in both a lagoon and estuarine system in order to study the influence of eutrophication on their population dynamics and production. Populations at the three sites showed a biased sex ratio. Densities were similar at the three sites, but biomass was higher at the lagoon system. Despite biomass being higher at the most eutrophic site, this site exhibited the lowest production. Regarding age structure, the population inhabiting the less eutrophic site mainly comprised younger crabs. The lower production and smaller P/B ratio found in the more eutrophic site were most likely consequences of a high mortality rate and an aged population. Our study evidences the high plasticity of the fiddler crab U. rapax, and confirms secondary production and P/B ratio estimates as useful tools to assess the effects of environmental change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a stock-recruitment model and assessment of biological reference points for the Lake Erie walleye fishery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Yingming; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Madenjian, Charles P.

2013-01-01

We developed an updated stock–recruitment relationship for Lake Erie Walleye Sander vitreus using the Akaike information criterion model selection approach. Our best stock–recruitment relationship was a Ricker spawner–recruit function to which spring warming rate was added as an environmental variable, and this regression model explained 39% of the variability in Walleye recruitment over the 1978 through 2006 year-classes. Thus, most of the variability in Lake Erie Walleye recruitment appeared to be attributable to factors other than spawning stock size and spring warming rate. The abundance of age-0 Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, which was an important term in previous models, may still be an important factor for Walleye recruitment, but poorer ability to monitor Gizzard Shad since the late 1990s could have led to that term failing to appear in our best model. Secondly, we used numerical simulation to demonstrate how to use the stock recruitment relationship to characterize the population dynamics (such as stable age structure, carrying capacity, and maximum sustainable yield) and some biological reference points (such as fishing rates at different important biomass or harvest levels) for an age-structured population in a deterministic way.

BIOACCUMULATION AND AQUATIC SYSTEM SIMULATOR (BASS) USER'S MANUAL BETA TEST VERSION 2.1

EPA Science Inventory

BASS (Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator) is a Fortran 95 simulation program that predicts the population and bioaccumulation dynamics of age-structured fish assemblages that are exposed to hydrophobic organic pollutants and class B and borderline metals that complex wi...

Effective Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue for a correlated random map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pool, Roman R.; Cáceres, Manuel O.

2010-09-01

We investigate the evolution of random positive linear maps with various type of disorder by analytic perturbation and direct simulation. Our theoretical result indicates that the statistics of a random linear map can be successfully described for long time by the mean-value vector state. The growth rate can be characterized by an effective Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue that strongly depends on the type of correlation between the elements of the projection matrix. We apply this approach to an age-structured population dynamics model. We show that the asymptotic mean-value vector state characterizes the population growth rate when the age-structured model has random vital parameters. In this case our approach reveals the nontrivial dependence of the effective growth rate with cross correlations. The problem was reduced to the calculation of the smallest positive root of a secular polynomial, which can be obtained by perturbations in terms of Green’s function diagrammatic technique built with noncommutative cumulants for arbitrary n -point correlations.

[Fertility in the Yanomami population, Sierra Parima (Amazonas Federal Territory, Venezuela)].

PubMed

Scholnik, S

1983-08-01

This article presents information on the age structure and the level of female fertility obtained on the basis of a sample of the yanomami population (653 individuals) residing in the Venezuelan margin of Sierra Parima. Data was gathered through a survey which had the character of a retrospective demographic investigation, consisting of a series of questions about past events. The survey was conducted almost in its entirety by an American missionary who has resided in the area since 1972. The study took place from March 1981 to March 1982. To estimate the number of births per anum Mortara's method was used. This method consists of plotting on a graph the number of live births according to the mother's age and adjusting the resulting curve so that irregularities disappear. The population observed was very young, over 50% were less than 15 years old and the mean age was 18 years. The total fertility rate reach 7.76 children/woman while the age distribution of rates showed that fertility began at early ages and started to decrease only after age 30. The comparison of the obtained parity averages with existing records of fertility rates suggest that the information given for the year previous to the survey was the most accurate. The importance of maintaining reliable and continuous records of live births is stressed. Results are illustrated in tables and charts.

Evolution over time of the Milky Way's disc shape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amôres, E. B.; Robin, A. C.; Reylé, C.

2017-06-01

Context. Galactic structure studies can be used as a path to constrain the scenario of formation and evolution of our Galaxy. The dependence with the age of stellar population parameters would be linked with the history of star formation and dynamical evolution. Aims: We aim to investigate the structures of the outer Galaxy, such as the scale length, disc truncation, warp and flare of the thin disc and study their dependence with age by using 2MASS data and a population synthesis model (the so-called Besançon Galaxy Model). Methods: We have used a genetic algorithm to adjust the parameters on the observed colour-magnitude diagrams at longitudes 80° ≤ ℓ ≤ 280° for | b | ≤ 5.5°. We explored parameter degeneracies and uncertainties. Results: We identify a clear dependence of the thin disc scale length, warp and flare shapes with age. The scale length is found to vary between 3.8 kpc for the youngest to about 2 kpc for the oldest. The warp shows a complex structure, clearly asymmetrical with a node angle changing with age from approximately 165° for old stars to 195° for young stars. The outer disc is also flaring with a scale height that varies by a factor of two between the solar neighbourhood and a Galactocentric distance of 12 kpc. Conclusions: We conclude that the thin disc scale length is in good agreement with the inside-out formation scenario and that the outer disc is not in dynamical equilibrium. The warp deformation with time may provide some clues to its origin.

Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest.

PubMed

Shim, Eunha; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Galvani, Alison P

2011-02-25

Influenza vaccination is vital for reducing H1N1 infection-mediated morbidity and mortality. To reduce transmission and achieve herd immunity during the initial 2009-2010 pandemic season, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that initial priority for H1N1 vaccines be given to individuals under age 25, as these individuals are more likely to spread influenza than older adults. However, due to significant delay in vaccine delivery for the H1N1 influenza pandemic, a large fraction of population was exposed to the H1N1 virus and thereby obtained immunity prior to the wide availability of vaccines. This exposure affects the spread of the disease and needs to be considered when prioritizing vaccine distribution. To determine optimal H1N1 vaccine distributions based on individual self-interest versus population interest, we constructed a game theoretical age-structured model of influenza transmission and considered the impact of delayed vaccination. Our results indicate that if individuals decide to vaccinate according to self-interest, the resulting optimal vaccination strategy would prioritize adults of age 25 to 49 followed by either preschool-age children before the pandemic peak or older adults (age 50-64) at the pandemic peak. In contrast, the vaccine allocation strategy that is optimal for the population as a whole would prioritize individuals of ages 5 to 64 to curb a growing pandemic regardless of the timing of the vaccination program. Our results indicate that for a delayed vaccine distribution, the priorities that are optimal at a population level do not align with those that are optimal according to individual self-interest. Moreover, the discordance between the optimal vaccine distributions based on individual self-interest and those based on population interest is even more pronounced when vaccine availability is delayed. To determine optimal vaccine allocation for pandemic influenza, public health agencies need to consider both the changes in infection risks among age groups and expected patterns of adherence.

Structural Stigma and All-Cause Mortality in Sexual Minority Populations

PubMed Central

Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.; Bellatorre, Anna; Lee, Yeonjin; Finch, Brian; Muennig, Peter; Fiscella, Kevin

2013-01-01

Stigma operates at multiple levels, including intrapersonal appraisals (e.g., self-stigma), interpersonal events (e.g., hate crimes), and structural conditions (e.g., community norms, institutional policies). Although prior research has indicated that intrapersonal and interpersonal forms of stigma negatively affect the health of the stigmatized, few studies have addressed the health consequences of exposure to structural forms of stigma. To address this gap, we investigated whether structural stigma—operationalized as living in communities with high levels of anti-gay prejudice—increases risk of premature mortality for sexual minorities. We constructed a measure capturing the average level of anti-gay prejudice at the community level, using data from the General Social Survey, which was then prospectively linked to all-cause mortality data via the National Death Index. Sexual minorities living in communities with high levels of anti-gay prejudice experienced a higher hazard of mortality than those living in low-prejudice communities (Hazard Ratio [HR] =3.03, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]=1.50, 6.13), controlling for individual and community-level covariates. This result translates into a shorter life expectancy of approximately 12 years (95% C.I.: 4-20 years) for sexual minorities living in high-prejudice communities. Analysis of specific causes of death revealed that suicide, homicide/violence, and cardiovascular diseases were substantially elevated among sexual minorities in high-prejudice communities. Strikingly, there was an 18-year difference in average age of completed suicide between sexual minorities in the high-prejudice (age 37.5) and low-prejudice (age 55.7) communities. These results highlight the importance of examining structural forms of stigma and prejudice as social determinants of health and longevity among minority populations. PMID:23830012

Structural stigma and all-cause mortality in sexual minority populations.

PubMed

Hatzenbuehler, Mark L; Bellatorre, Anna; Lee, Yeonjin; Finch, Brian K; Muennig, Peter; Fiscella, Kevin

2014-02-01

Stigma operates at multiple levels, including intrapersonal appraisals (e.g., self-stigma), interpersonal events (e.g., hate crimes), and structural conditions (e.g., community norms, institutional policies). Although prior research has indicated that intrapersonal and interpersonal forms of stigma negatively affect the health of the stigmatized, few studies have addressed the health consequences of exposure to structural forms of stigma. To address this gap, we investigated whether structural stigma-operationalized as living in communities with high levels of anti-gay prejudice-increases risk of premature mortality for sexual minorities. We constructed a measure capturing the average level of anti-gay prejudice at the community level, using data from the General Social Survey, which was then prospectively linked to all-cause mortality data via the National Death Index. Sexual minorities living in communities with high levels of anti-gay prejudice experienced a higher hazard of mortality than those living in low-prejudice communities (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 3.03, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.50, 6.13), controlling for individual and community-level covariates. This result translates into a shorter life expectancy of approximately 12 years (95% C.I.: 4-20 years) for sexual minorities living in high-prejudice communities. Analysis of specific causes of death revealed that suicide, homicide/violence, and cardiovascular diseases were substantially elevated among sexual minorities in high-prejudice communities. Strikingly, there was an 18-year difference in average age of completed suicide between sexual minorities in the high-prejudice (age 37.5) and low-prejudice (age 55.7) communities. These results highlight the importance of examining structural forms of stigma and prejudice as social determinants of health and longevity among minority populations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Infant brain structures, executive function, and attention deficit/hyperactivity problems at preschool age. A prospective study.

PubMed

Ghassabian, Akhgar; Herba, Catherine M; Roza, Sabine J; Govaert, Paul; Schenk, Jacqueline J; Jaddoe, Vincent W; Hofman, Albert; White, Tonya; Verhulst, Frank C; Tiemeier, Henning

2013-01-01

Neuroimaging findings have provided evidence for a relation between variations in brain structures and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However, longitudinal neuroimaging studies are typically confined to children who have already been diagnosed with ADHD. In a population-based study, we aimed to characterize the prospective association between brain structures measured during infancy and executive function and attention deficit/hyperactivity problems assessed at preschool age. In the Generation R Study, the corpus callosum length, the gangliothalamic ovoid diameter (encompassing the basal ganglia and thalamus), and the ventricular volume were measured in 784 6-week-old children using cranial postnatal ultrasounds. Parents rated executive functioning at 4 years using the behavior rating inventory of executive function-preschool version in five dimensions: inhibition, shifting, emotional control, working memory, and planning/organizing. Attention deficit/hyperactivity problems were assessed at ages 3 and 5 years using the child behavior checklist. A smaller corpus callosum length during infancy was associated with greater deficits in executive functioning at 4 years. This was accounted for by higher problem scores on inhibition and emotional control. The corpus callosum length during infancy did not predict attention deficit/hyperactivity problem at 3 and 5 years, when controlling for the confounders. We did not find any relation between gangliothalamic ovoid diameter and executive function or Attention deficit/hyperactivity problem. Variations in brain structures detectible in infants predicted subtle impairments in inhibition and emotional control. However, in this population-based study, we could not demonstrate that early structural brain variations precede symptoms of ADHD. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2012 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Genetic diversity and population structure of an insular tree, Santalum austrocaledonicum in New Caledonian archipelago.

PubMed

Bottin, L; Verhaegen, D; Tassin, J; Olivieri, I; Vaillant, A; Bouvet, J M

2005-06-01

We present a study of the genetic diversity and structure of a tropical tree in an insular system. Santalum austrocaledonicum is endemic to the archipelago of New Caledonia and is exploited for oil extraction from heartwood. A total of 431 individuals over 17 populations were analysed for eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 3 to 33 and the observed heterozygosity per population ranged from 0.01 in Mare to 0.74 in Ile des Pins. The genetic diversity was lowest in the most recent islands, the Loyautes, and highest in the oldest island, Grande Terre, as well as the nearby small Ile des Pins. Significant departures from panmixia were observed for some loci-population combinations (per population FIS = 0-0.03 on Grande-Terre and Ile des Pins, and 0-0.67 on Loyautes). A strong genetic differentiation among all islands was observed (FST = 0.22), and the amount of differentiation increased with geographic distance in Iles Loyaute and in Grande Terre. At both population and island levels, island age and isolation seem to be the main factors influencing the amount of genetic diversity. In particular, populations from recent islands had large average FIS that could not be entirely explained by null alleles or a Wahlund effect. This result suggests that, at least in some populations, selfing occurred extensively. Conclusively, our results indicate a strong influence of insularity on the genetic diversity and structure of Santalum austrocaledonicum.

Lifestyle Factors and Visible Skin Aging in a Population of Japanese Elders

PubMed Central

Asakura, Keiko; Nishiwaki, Yuji; Milojevic, Ai; Michikawa, Takehiro; Kikuchi, Yuriko; Nakano, Makiko; Iwasawa, Satoko; Hillebrand, Greg; Miyamoto, Kukizo; Ono, Masaji; Kinjo, Yoshihide; Akiba, Suminori; Takebayashi, Toru

2009-01-01

Background The number of studies that use objective and quantitative methods to evaluate facial skin aging in elderly people is extremely limited, especially in Japan. Therefore, in this cross-sectional study we attempted to characterize the condition of facial skin (hyperpigmentation, pores, texture, and wrinkling) in Japanese adults aged 65 years or older by using objective and quantitative imaging methods. In addition, we aimed to identify lifestyle factors significantly associated with these visible signs of aging. Methods The study subjects were 802 community-dwelling Japanese men and women aged at least 65 years and living in the town of Kurabuchi (Takasaki City, Gunma Prefecture, Japan), a mountain community with a population of approximately 4800. The facial skin condition of subjects was assessed quantitatively using a standardized facial imaging system and subsequent computer image analysis. Lifestyle information was collected using a structured questionnaire. The association between skin condition and lifestyle factors was examined using multivariable regression analysis. Results Among women, the mean values for facial texture, hyperpigmentation, and pores were generally lower than those among age-matched men. There was no significant difference between sexes in the severity of facial wrinkling. Older age was associated with worse skin condition among women only. After adjusting for age, smoking status and topical sun protection were significantly associated with skin condition among both men and women. Conclusions Our study revealed significant differences between sexes in the severity of hyperpigmentation, texture, and pores, but not wrinkling. Smoking status and topical sun protection were significantly associated with signs of visible skin aging in this study population. PMID:19700917

Impact of population structure, effective bottleneck time, and allele frequency on linkage disequilibrium maps

PubMed Central

Zhang, Weihua; Collins, Andrew; Gibson, Jane; Tapper, William J.; Hunt, Sarah; Deloukas, Panos; Bentley, David R.; Morton, Newton E.

2004-01-01

Genetic maps in linkage disequilibrium (LD) units play the same role for association mapping as maps in centimorgans provide at much lower resolution for linkage mapping. Association mapping of genes determining disease susceptibility and other phenotypes is based on the theory of LD, here applied to relations with three phenomena. To test the theory, markers at high density along a 10-Mb continuous segment of chromosome 20q were studied in African-American, Asian, and Caucasian samples. Population structure, whether created by pooling samples from divergent populations or by the mating pattern in a mixed population, is accurately bioassayed from genotype frequencies. The effective bottleneck time for Eurasians is substantially less than for migration out of Africa, reflecting later bottlenecks. The classical dependence of allele frequency on mutation age does not hold for the generally shorter time span of inbreeding and LD. Limitation of the classical theory to mutation age justifies the assumption of constant time in a LD map, except for alleles that were rare at the effective bottleneck time or have arisen since. This assumption is derived from the Malecot model and verified in all samples. Tested measures of relative efficiency, support intervals, and localization error determine the operating characteristics of LD maps that are applicable to every sexually reproducing species, with implications for association mapping, high-resolution linkage maps, evolutionary inference, and identification of recombinogenic sequences. PMID:15604137

Impact of population structure, effective bottleneck time, and allele frequency on linkage disequilibrium maps.

PubMed

Zhang, Weihua; Collins, Andrew; Gibson, Jane; Tapper, William J; Hunt, Sarah; Deloukas, Panos; Bentley, David R; Morton, Newton E

2004-12-28

Genetic maps in linkage disequilibrium (LD) units play the same role for association mapping as maps in centimorgans provide at much lower resolution for linkage mapping. Association mapping of genes determining disease susceptibility and other phenotypes is based on the theory of LD, here applied to relations with three phenomena. To test the theory, markers at high density along a 10-Mb continuous segment of chromosome 20q were studied in African-American, Asian, and Caucasian samples. Population structure, whether created by pooling samples from divergent populations or by the mating pattern in a mixed population, is accurately bioassayed from genotype frequencies. The effective bottleneck time for Eurasians is substantially less than for migration out of Africa, reflecting later bottlenecks. The classical dependence of allele frequency on mutation age does not hold for the generally shorter time span of inbreeding and LD. Limitation of the classical theory to mutation age justifies the assumption of constant time in a LD map, except for alleles that were rare at the effective bottleneck time or have arisen since. This assumption is derived from the Malecot model and verified in all samples. Tested measures of relative efficiency, support intervals, and localization error determine the operating characteristics of LD maps that are applicable to every sexually reproducing species, with implications for association mapping, high-resolution linkage maps, evolutionary inference, and identification of recombinogenic sequences.

Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting

PubMed Central

Ajelli, Marco; Yang, Zhenhua; Merler, Stefano; Furlanello, Cesare; Kirschner, Denise

2011-01-01

Evidence of preferential mixing through selected social routes has been suggested for the transmission of tuberculosis (TB) infection in low burden settings. A realistic modelization of these contact routes is needed to appropriately assess the impact of individually targeted control strategies, such as contact network investigation of index cases and treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). We propose an age-structured, socio-demographic individual based model (IBM) with a realistic, time-evolving structure of preferential contacts in a population. In particular, transmission within households, schools and work-places, together with a component of casual, distance-dependent contacts are considered. We also compared the model against two other formulations having no social structure of contacts (homogeneous mixing transmission): a baseline deterministic model without age structure and an age-structured IBM. The socio-demographic IBM better fitted recent longitudinal data on TB epidemiology in Arkansas, USA, which serves as an example of a low burden setting. Inclusion of age structure in the model proved fundamental to capturing actual proportions of reactivated TB cases (as opposed to recently transmitted) as well as profiling age-group specific incidence. The socio-demographic structure additionally provides a prediction of TB transmission rates (the rate of infection in household contacts and the rate of secondary cases in household and workplace contacts). These results suggest that the socio-demographic IBM is an optimal choice for evaluating current control strategies, including contact network investigation of index cases, and the simulation of alternative scenarios, particularly for TB eradication targets. PMID:21906603

A 5-year survey of biopsy proven kidney diseases in Lebanon: significant variation in prevalence of primary glomerular diseases by age, population structure and consanguinity

PubMed Central

Karnib, Hussein H.; Gharavi, Ali G.; Aftimos, Georges; Mahfoud, Ziyad; Saad, Reem; Gemayel, Elias; Masri, Badiaa; Assaad, Shafika; Badr, Kamal F.; Ziyadeh, Fuad N.

2010-01-01

Background. Differences in epidemiology of kidney disease across the Middle East may arise from variations in indication for biopsy, environmental exposure and socio-economic status. The Lebanese population is composed of different ethnicities, with distinct ancestry and religion, enabling comparison of their effect on the prevalence of kidney disease within a confined geographic setting and uniform practices. Here we report 5 years’ detailed epidemiology of renal diseases, based on histological diagnosis, in a sample from three large pathology centres in Lebanon. Methods. Records of renal biopsies analysed at the American University of Beirut Medical Center, Hotel Dieu de France Hospital and the Institut National de Pathologie from January 2003 till December 2007 were retrospectively examined. We recorded the following data for each patient: age, gender, indication for renal biopsy and histopathological diagnosis. Religious affiliation and parents’ consanguinity were recorded when feasible. Results. The mean age at renal biopsy was 36.76 ± 20 years (range 1–84). The most common diagnosis was mesangioproliferative glomerulonephritis (GN; 20%), followed by focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (13.2%). While there were no differences in age, gender or indications for biopsy among different religious affiliations, mesangioproliferative GN was significantly more frequent among Muslims (P = 0.039) and offspring of consanguineous unions (P = 0.036). On the other hand, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis was most prevalent in Christians (P < 0.001). Conclusions. Variation in the distribution of diagnoses between Muslim and Christian groups likely reflects differences in population structure and ancestry. In particular, the increased prevalence of mesangioproliferative GN among offspring of consanguineous unions in Muslims suggests a recessive genetic component to this disease which may be identified via homozygosity mapping. These findings have important implications for formulating renal health policies and designing research studies in this population. PMID:20525974

Lake whitefish and lake herring population structure and niche in ten south-central Ontario lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carl, Leon M.; McGuiness, Fiona

2006-01-01

This study compares simple fish communities of ten oligotrophic lakes in south-central Ontario. Species densities and population size structure vary significantly among these lake communities depending on fish species present beyond the littoral zone. Lake whitefish are fewer and larger in the presence of lake herring than in their absence. Diet analysis indicates that lake whitefish shift from feeding on both plankton and benthic prey when lake herring are absent to a primarily benthic feeding niche in the presence of lake herring. When benthic round whitefish are present, lake whitefish size and density decline and they move lower in the lake compared to round whitefish. Burbot are also fewer and larger in lakes with lake herring than in lakes without herring. Burbot, in turn, appear to influence the population structure of benthic coregonine species. Lower densities of benthic lake whitefish and round whitefish are found in lakes containing large benthic burbot than in lakes with either small burbot or where burbot are absent. Predation on the pelagic larvae of burbot and lake whitefish by planktivorous lake herring alters the size and age structure of these populations. As life history theory predicts, those species with poor larval survival appear to adopt a bet-hedging life history strategy of long-lived individuals as a reproductive reserve.

An "age"-structured model of hematopoietic stem cell organization with application to chronic myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Roeder, Ingo; Herberg, Maria; Horn, Matthias

2009-04-01

Previously, we have modeled hematopoietic stem cell organization by a stochastic, single cell-based approach. Applications to different experimental systems demonstrated that this model consistently explains a broad variety of in vivo and in vitro data. A major advantage of the agent-based model (ABM) is the representation of heterogeneity within the hematopoietic stem cell population. However, this advantage comes at the price of time-consuming simulations if the systems become large. One example in this respect is the modeling of disease and treatment dynamics in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), where the realistic number of individual cells to be considered exceeds 10(6). To overcome this deficiency, without losing the representation of the inherent heterogeneity of the stem cell population, we here propose to approximate the ABM by a system of partial differential equations (PDEs). The major benefit of such an approach is its independence from the size of the system. Although this mean field approach includes a number of simplifying assumptions compared to the ABM, it retains the key structure of the model including the "age"-structure of stem cells. We show that the PDE model qualitatively and quantitatively reproduces the results of the agent-based approach.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Norris, John E.; Yong, David; Dotter, Aaron

We investigate the color–magnitude diagram (CMD) of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy using data of Stetson et al. and synthetic CMDs based on isochrones of Dotter et al., in terms of the parameters [Fe/H], age, and [ α /Fe], for the cases when (i) [ α /Fe] is held constant and (ii) [ α /Fe] is varied. The data are well described by four basic epochs of star formation, having [Fe/H] = −1.85, −1.5, −1.2, and ∼−1.15 and ages ∼13, 7, ∼3.5, and ∼1.5 Gyr, respectively (for [ α /Fe] = 0.1, constant [ α /Fe], and [ α /Fe]more » = 0.2, 0.1, −0.2, −0.2, variable [ α /Fe]), with small spreads in [Fe/H] and age of order 0.1 dex and 1–3 Gyr. Within an elliptical radius 13.′1, the mass fractions of the populations, at their times of formation, were (in decreasing age order) 0.34, 0.39, 0.23, and 0.04. This formalism reproduces five observed CMD features (two distinct subgiant branches of old and intermediate-age populations, two younger, main-sequence components, and the small color dispersion on the red giant branch (RGB). The parameters of the youngest population are less certain than those of the others, and given it is less centrally concentrated, it may not be directly related to them. High-resolution spectroscopically analyzed RGB samples appear statistically incomplete compared with those selected using radial velocity, which contain bluer stars comprising ∼5%–10% of the samples. We conjecture these objects may, at least in part, be members of the youngest population. We use the CMD simulations to obtain insight into the population structure of Carina's upper RGB.« less

Diagnosis and management of acute heart failure.

PubMed

Ural, Dilek; Çavuşoğlu, Yüksel; Eren, Mehmet; Karaüzüm, Kurtuluş; Temizhan, Ahmet; Yılmaz, Mehmet Birhan; Zoghi, Mehdi; Ramassubu, Kumudha; Bozkurt, Biykem

2015-11-01

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a life threatening clinical syndrome with a progressively increasing incidence in general population. Turkey is a country with a high cardiovascular mortality and recent national statistics show that the population structure has turned to an 'aged' population.As a consequence, AHF has become one of the main reasons of admission to cardiology clinics. This consensus report summarizes clinical and prognostic classification of AHF, its worldwide and national epidemiology, diagnostic work-up, principles of approach in emergency department,intensive care unit and ward, treatment in different clinical scenarios and approach in special conditions and how to plan hospital discharge.

Can Burt's Theory of Structural Holes be Applied to Study Social Support Among Mid-Age Female Sex Workers? A Multi-Site Egocentric Network Study in China.

PubMed

Liu, Hongjie

2017-12-01

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS continues to spread among older adults and mid-age female sex workers (FSWs) over 35 years old. We used egocentric network data collected from three study sites in China to examine the applicability of Burt's Theory of Social Holes to study social support among mid-age FSWs. Using respondent-driven sampling, 1245 eligible mid-age FSWs were interviewed. Network structural holes were measured by network constraint and effective size. Three types of social networks were identified: family networks, workplace networks, and non-FSW networks. A larger effective size was significantly associated with a higher level of social support [regression coefficient (β) 5.43-10.59] across the three study samples. In contrast, a greater constraint was significantly associated with a lower level of social support (β -9.33 to -66.76). This study documents the applicability of the Theory of Structural Holes in studying network support among marginalized populations, such as FSWs.

Family structure and breakfast consumption of 11-15 year old boys and girls in Scotland, 1994-2010: a repeated cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The benefits of breakfast during childhood and adolescence have been reported previously though few studies have considered family structure inequalities in breakfast consumption. The proportion of young people living in non-traditional family types has increased in recent years, strengthening the need to describe and monitor the impact of the changing family unit on adolescent breakfast consumption. This study aimed to describe changes in daily breakfast consumption among adolescents in Scotland between 1994 and 2010, while also considering family structure inequalities, and the degree to which these have changed over time. Methods Data from the 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2010 Scottish Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) surveys were analysed using logistic multilevel regression models for binary outcome variable daily breakfast consumption. Results Daily breakfast consumption among adolescents increased between 1994 and 2010, although there were differences by age and sex. In fact those aged over 14.5 years saw decreases in breakfast consumption, and girls saw significantly larger increases than boys. Daily breakfast consumption was more prevalent among adolescents from 'both parent' families, with lowest prevalence among those from single parent families. Trends in daily breakfast consumption between 1994 and 2010 also varied by family structure. While prevalence of daily breakfast consumption increased among those living with 'both parents', the largest proportion of the population, prevalence decreased over time among adolescents of single parent families, and particularly among those living with their father. Conclusions Family structure inequalities in daily breakfast consumption increased between 1994 and 2010, while breakfast consumption across the population as a whole increased. As the proportion of young people living in an alternative family structure continues to grow it is important to understand why these inequalities have increased and how these may be overcome. Possible reasons for family structure inequalities and their increase in recent years are discussed. PMID:22440153

Aging and Down syndrome: implications for physical therapy.

PubMed

Barnhart, Robert C; Connolly, Barbara

2007-10-01

The number of people over the age of 60 years with lifelong developmental delays is predicted to double by 2030. Down syndrome (DS) is the most frequent chromosomal cause of developmental delays. As the life expectancy of people with DS increases, changes in body function and structure secondary to aging have the potential to lead to activity limitations and participation restrictions for this population. The purpose of this update is to: (1) provide an overview of the common body function and structure changes that occur in adults with DS as they age (thyroid dysfunction, cardiovascular disorders, obesity, musculoskeletal disorders, Alzheimer disease, depression) and (2) apply current research on exercise to the prevention of activity limitations and participation restrictions. As individuals with DS age, a shift in emphasis from disability prevention to the prevention of conditions that lead to activity and participation limitations must occur. Exercise programs appear to have potential to positively affect the overall health of adults with DS, thereby increasing the quality of life and years of healthy life for these individuals.

Experimental febrile seizures induce age-dependent structural plasticity and improve memory in mice.

PubMed

Tao, K; Ichikawa, J; Matsuki, N; Ikegaya, Y; Koyama, R

2016-03-24

Population-based studies have demonstrated that children with a history of febrile seizure (FS) perform better than age-matched controls at hippocampus-dependent memory tasks. Here, we report that FSs induce two distinct structural reorganizations in the hippocampus and bidirectionally modify future learning abilities in an age-dependent manner. Compared with age-matched controls, adult mice that had experienced experimental FSs induced by hyperthermia (HT) on postnatal day 14 (P14-HT) performed better in a cognitive task that requires dentate granule cells (DGCs). The enhanced memory performance correlated with an FS-induced persistent increase in the density of large mossy fiber terminals (LMTs) of the DGCs. The memory enhancement was not observed in mice that had experienced HT-induced seizures at P11 which exhibited abnormally located DGCs in addition to the increased LMT density. The ectopic DGCs of the P11-HT mice were abolished by the diuretic bumetanide, and this pharmacological treatment unveiled the masked memory enhancement. Thus, this work provides a novel basis for age-dependent structural plasticity in which FSs influence future brain function. Copyright © 2016 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Depressed resilience of bluefin tuna in the western atlantic and age truncation.

PubMed

Secor, D H; Rooker, J R; Gahagan, B I; Siskey, M R; Wingate, R W

2015-04-01

Following intense overfishing in the 1970s, the western stock of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) experienced a long period of depressed abundance, which has been attributed to failure of the population to periodically produce large numbers of juveniles, the western stock mixing with the more highly exploited eastern stock (fisheries in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea), and regime shift in the population's ecosystem resulting in lower replacement rates. To evaluate the presence of relatively strong years of juvenile production, we analyzed age structure from a recent sample of otoliths (ear stones) collected from the western stock (2011-2013, North Carolina, U.S.A., winter fishery). Mixing levels for the recent sample were analyzed using otolith stable isotopes to test whether age structure might be biased through immigration of eastern stock bluefin tuna. Age structure from historical samples collected from United States and Canadian fisheries (1975-1981) was compared with more recent samples (1996-2007) to examine whether demographic changes had occurred to the western stock that might have disrupted juvenile production. Relatively high juvenile production occurred in 2003, 2005, and 2006. Otolith stable isotope analysis showed that these recruitments were mostly of western stock origin. However, these high recruitments were >2-fold less than historical recruitment. We found substantial age truncation in the sampled fisheries. Half the historical sample was >20 years old (mean age = 20.1 [SD 3.7]; skewness = -0.3), whereas <5% of the recent sample was >20 years old (mean age = 13.4 [SD 3.8]; skewness = 1.3). Loss of age structure is consistent with changes in fishing selectivity and trends in the stock assessment used for management. We propose that fishing, as a forcing variable, brought about a threshold shift in the western stock toward lower biomass and production, a shift that emulates the regime shift hypothesis. An abbreviated reproductive life span compromised resilience by reducing the period over which adults spawn and thereby curtailing the stock's ability to sample year-to-year variability in conditions that favor offspring survival (i.e., storage effect). Because recruitment dynamics by the western stock exhibit threshold dynamics, returning it to a higher production state will entail greater reductions in exploitation rates. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Age, growth rates, and paleoclimate studies of deep sea corals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prouty, Nancy G; Roark, E. Brendan; Andrews, Allen; Robinson, Laura; Hill, Tessa; Sherwood, Owen; Williams, Branwen; Guilderson, Thomas P.; Fallon, Stewart

2015-01-01

Deep-water corals are some of the slowest growing, longest-lived skeletal accreting marine organisms. These habitat-forming species support diverse faunal assemblages that include commercially and ecologically important organisms. Therefore, effective management and conservation strategies for deep-sea corals can be informed by precise and accurate age, growth rate, and lifespan characteristics for proper assessment of vulnerability and recovery from perturbations. This is especially true for the small number of commercially valuable, and potentially endangered, species that are part of the black and precious coral fisheries (Tsounis et al. 2010). In addition to evaluating time scales of recovery from disturbance or exploitation, accurate age and growth estimates are essential for understanding the life history and ecology of these habitat-forming corals. Given that longevity is a key factor for population maintenance and fishery sustainability, partly due to limited and complex genetic flow among coral populations separated by great distances, accurate age structure for these deep-sea coral communities is essential for proper, long-term resource management.

Intimate partner violence in Europe: design and methods of a multinational study.

PubMed

Costa, Diogo; Soares, Joaquim J F; Lindert, Jutta; Hatzidimitriadou, Eleni; Karlsso, Andreas; Sundin, Örjan; Toth, Olga; Ioannidi-Kapolou, Ellisabeth; Degomme, Olivier; Cervilla, Jorge; Barros, Henrique

2013-01-01

To describe the design, methods, procedures and characteristics of the population involved in a study designed to compare Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) in eight European countries. Women and men aged 18-65, living in Ghent-Belgium (n = 245), Stuttgart-Germany (n = 546), Athens-Greece (n = 548), Budapest-Hungary (n = 604), Porto-Portugal (n = 635), Granada-Spain (n = 138), Östersund-Sweden (n = 592), London-United Kingdom (n = 571), were sampled and administered a common questionnaire. Chi-square goodness of fit and five-age strata population fractions ratios for sex and education were computed to evaluate samples' representativeness. Differences in the age distributions were found among women from Sweden and Portugal and among men from Belgium, Hungary, Portugal and Sweden. Over-recruitment of more educated respondents was noted in all sites. The use of a common research protocol with the same structured questionnaire is likely to provide accurate estimates of the general population IPV frequency, despite limitations in probabilistic sampling and restrictions in methods of administration. Copyright © 2012 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Probable causes of increasing brucellosis in free-ranging elk of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, P.C.; Cole, E.K.; Dobson, A.P.; Edwards, W.H.; Hamlin, K.L.; Luikart, G.; Middleton, A.D.; Scurlock, B.M.; White, P.J.

2010-01-01

While many wildlife species are threatened, some populations have recovered from previous overexploitation, and data linking these population increases with disease dynamics are limited. We present data suggesting that free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) are a maintenance host for Brucella abortus in new areas of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Brucellosis seroprevalence in free-ranging elk increased from 0-7% in 1991-1992 to 8-20% in 2006-2007 in four of six herd units around the GYE. These levels of brucellosis are comparable to some herd units where elk are artificially aggregated on supplemental feeding grounds. There are several possible mechanisms for this increase that we evaluated using statistical and population modeling approaches. Simulations of an age-structured population model suggest that the observed levels of seroprevalence are unlikely to be sustained by dispersal from supplemental feeding areas with relatively high seroprevalence or an older age structure. Increases in brucellosis seroprevalence and the total elk population size in areas with feeding grounds have not been statistically detectable. Meanwhile, the rate of seroprevalence increase outside the feeding grounds was related to the population size and density of each herd unit. Therefore, the data suggest that enhanced elk-to-elk transmission in free-ranging populations may be occurring due to larger winter elk aggregations. Elk populations inside and outside of the GYE that traditionally did not maintain brucellosis may now be at risk due to recent population increases. In particular, some neighboring populations of Montana elk were 5-9 times larger in 2007 than in the 1970s, with some aggregations comparable to the Wyoming feeding-ground populations. Addressing the unintended consequences of these increasing populations is complicated by limited hunter access to private lands, which places many ungulate populations out of administrative control. Agency-landowner hunting access partnerships and the protection of large predators are two management strategies that may be used to target high ungulate densities in private refuges and reduce the current and future burden of disease. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shagina, N. B.; Tolstykh, E. I.; Degteva, M. O.

A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitation for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on 90Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic modelmore » for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has similar structure as the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly reevaluated: gastro-intestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0–80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general population exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.« less

Accounting for age structure and spatial structure in eco-evolutionary analyses of a large, mobile vertebrate.

PubMed

Waples, Robin S; Scribner, Kim; Moore, Jennifer; Draheim, Hope; Etter, Dwayne; Boersen, Mark

2018-04-14

The idealized concept of a population is integral to ecology, evolutionary biology, and natural resource management. To make analyses tractable, most models adopt simplifying assumptions, which almost inevitably are violated by real species in nature. Here we focus on both demographic and genetic estimates of effective population size per generation (Ne), the effective number of breeders per year (Nb), and Wright's neighborhood size (NS) for black bears (Ursus americanus) that are continuously distributed in the northern lower peninsula of Michigan, USA. We illustrate practical application of recently-developed methods to account for violations of two common, simplifying assumptions about populations: 1) reproduction occurs in discrete generations, and 2) mating occurs randomly among all individuals. We use a 9-year harvest dataset of >3300 individuals, together with genetic determination of 221 parent-offspring pairs, to estimate male and female vital rates, including age-specific survival, age-specific fecundity, and age-specific variance in fecundity (for which empirical data are rare). We find strong evidence for overdispersed variance in reproductive success of same-age individuals in both sexes, and we show that constraints on litter size have a strong influence on results. We also estimate that another life-history trait that is often ignored (skip breeding by females) has a relatively modest influence, reducing Nb by 9% and increasing Ne by 3%. We conclude that isolation by distance depresses genetic estimates of Nb, which implicitly assume a randomly-mating population. Estimated demographic NS (100, based on parent-offspring dispersal) was similar to genetic NS (85, based on regression of genetic distance and geographic distance), indicating that the >36,000 km2 study area includes about 4-5 black-bear neighborhoods. Results from this expansive data set provide important insight into effects of violating assumptions when estimating evolutionary parameters for long-lived, free-ranging species. In conjunction with recently-developed analytical methodology, the ready availability of non-lethal DNA sampling methods and the ability to rapidly and cheaply survey many thousands of molecular markers should facilitate eco-evolutionary studies like this for many more species in nature.

Rapid divergence of mussel populations despite incomplete barriers to dispersal.

PubMed

Maas, Diede L; Prost, Stefan; Bi, Ke; Smith, Lydia L; Armstrong, Ellie E; Aji, Ludi P; Toha, Abdul Hamid A; Gillespie, Rosemary G; Becking, Leontine E

2018-04-01

Striking genetic structure among marine populations at small spatial scales is becoming evident with extensive molecular studies. Such observations suggest isolation at small scales may play an important role in forming patterns of genetic diversity within species. Isolation-by-distance, isolation-by-environment and historical priority effects are umbrella terms for a suite of processes that underlie genetic structure, but their relative importance at different spatial and temporal scales remains elusive. Here, we use marine lakes in Indonesia to assess genetic structure and assess the relative roles of the processes in shaping genetic differentiation in populations of a bivalve mussel (Brachidontes sp.). Marine lakes are landlocked waterbodies of similar age (6,000-10,000 years), but with heterogeneous environments and varying degrees of connection to the sea. Using a population genomic approach (double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing), we show strong genetic structuring across populations (range F ST : 0.07-0.24) and find limited gene flow through admixture plots. At large spatial scales (>1,400 km), a clear isolation-by-distance pattern was detected. At smaller spatial scales (<200 km), this pattern is maintained, but accompanied by an association of genetic divergence with degree of connection. We hypothesize that (incomplete) dispersal barriers can cause initial isolation, allowing priority effects to give the numerical advantage necessary to initiate strong genetic structure. Priority effects may be strengthened by local adaptation, which the data may corroborate by showing a high correlation between mussel genotypes and temperature. Our study indicates an often-neglected role of (evolution-mediated) priority effects in shaping population divergence. © 2018 The Authors. Molecular Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.

Efficacy of otoliths and first dorsal spines for preliminary age and growth determination in Atlantic Tripletails

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parr, Russell T.; Bringolf, Robert B.; Jennings, Cecil A.

2018-01-01

The Atlantic Tripletail Lobotes surinamensis is a popular sport fish for which age and growth data are scarce in general and nonexistent for Georgia (GA), USA, waters. These data are necessary to ensure that management regulations are adequate to protect this species, especially given its popularity as a sport fish. We evaluated whether otoliths and spines were suitable for determining the estimated age (hereafter, “age”) and growth rates of Atlantic Tripletails, and we ascertained whether one method was more accurate than the other. Atlantic Tripletails were sampled by angling and trawling during March 30–August 10, 2009, and March 14–August 6, 2010, in nearshore GA waters of the Atlantic Ocean. During the study, 243 Atlantic Tripletails were captured and sampled for aging structures. Sagittal otoliths and the first dorsal spine were removed from each fish and used to estimate the age and growth rate. Mean differences in TL at age for spine and otolith data were evaluated with ANOVA. Estimated ages for males and females ranged from 1 to 5 years based on otoliths and spines. Both otolith and spine mean TLs at ages 1 and 2 were significantly different from each other as well as all other age‐classes, whereas mean TLs for ages 3–5 were not significantly different. Differences in Atlantic Tripletail TL among the otolith‐ and spine‐derived age‐classes were not significant. Each method used to age Atlantic Tripletails had advantages and disadvantages. Otoliths had higher initial reader agreement than spines, although agreement between the structures was 84.1%. However, otoliths require sacrifice of the fish, whereas a spine can be taken without sacrificing the fish. The lack of concrete life history data and population estimates suggests that when feasible, nonlethal aging methods would be preferred over lethal methods to ensure the survival of Atlantic Tripletail populations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gyory, Zsuzsanna; Bell, Eric F., E-mail: gyory.zsuzsa@googlemail.co, E-mail: ericbell@umich.ed

One of the key predictions of the merger hypothesis for the origin of early-type (elliptical and lenticular) galaxies is that tidally induced asymmetric structure should correlate with signatures of a relatively young stellar population. Such a signature was found by Schweizer and Seitzer at roughly 4{sigma} confidence. In this paper, we revisit this issue with a nearly ten-fold larger sample of 0.01 < z < 0.03 galaxies selected from the Two Micron All-Sky Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We parameterize tidal structure using a repeatable algorithmic measure of asymmetry, and correlate this with color offset from the early-typemore » galaxy color-magnitude relation. We recover the color offset-asymmetry correlation; furthermore, we demonstrate observationally for the first time that this effect is driven by a highly significant trend toward younger ages at higher asymmetry values. We present a simple model for the evolution of early-type galaxies through gas-rich major and minor mergers that reproduces their observed buildup from z = 1 to the present day and the distribution of present-day colors and ages. We show using this model that if both stellar populations and asymmetry were ideal 'clocks' measuring the time since last major or minor gas-rich interaction, then we would expect a rather tight correlation between age and asymmetry. We suggest that the source of extra scatter is natural diversity in progenitor star formation history, gas content, and merger mass ratio, but quantitative confirmation of this conjecture will require sophisticated modeling. We conclude that the asymmetry-age correlation is in basic accord with the merger hypothesis, and indicates that an important fraction of the early-type galaxy population is affected by major or minor mergers at cosmologically recent times.« less

Age-related prevalence of chronic rhinosinusitis and nasal polyps and their relationships with asthma onset.

PubMed

Won, Ha-Kyeong; Kim, Young-Chan; Kang, Min-Gyu; Park, Han-Ki; Lee, Seung-Eun; Kim, Min-Hye; Yang, Min-Suk; Chang, Yoon-Seok; Cho, Sang-Heon; Song, Woo-Jung

2018-04-01

Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a major disease condition with high morbidity and can influence lower airway disease status in adults. However, its associations with adult asthma onset and activity have not been examined in detail in a general adult population. To investigate relationships between CRS with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) and asthma characteristics. A cross-sectional data set of 17,506 adult participants (≥18 years old) in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2010 through 2012 was analyzed. CRS was defined using structured questionnaires according to the international guideline, and presence of nasal polyps was objectively assessed using nasal endoscopy. Presence of asthma and its onset and current activity were assessed using structured questionnaires. CRS was significantly related to asthma, but the relationships were distinct by CRS and asthma status. CRSwNP was significantly associated with adult-onset asthma (onset after 18 years of age) or late-onset asthma (onset after 40 years of age), whereas CRS without nasal polyps was related to childhood-onset asthma (onset before 18 years) or early-onset asthma (onset before 40 years) in adults. The 2 CRS subgroups showed significant associations with current asthma but not with past asthma. However, the comorbid asthma rate was lower than 10% among subjects with CRS. This study found distinct age-related patterns of CRSwNP and asthma and demonstrated their significant associations in a general population. However, the low prevalence of asthma in CRSwNP is in sharp contrast to findings in Western populations, which warrants further investigation for ethnic or regional differences in relationships between CRSwNP and asthma. Copyright © 2018 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Natural and Sun-Induced Aging of Human Skin

PubMed Central

Rittié, Laure; Fisher, Gary J.

2015-01-01

With worldwide expansion of the aging population, research on age-related pathologies is receiving growing interest. In this review, we discuss current knowledge regarding the decline of skin structure and function induced by the passage of time (chronological aging) and chronic exposure to solar UV irradiation (photoaging). Nearly every aspect of skin biology is affected by aging. The self-renewing capability of the epidermis, which provides vital barrier function, is diminished with age. Vital thermoregulation function of eccrine sweat glands is also altered with age. The dermal collagenous extracellular matrix, which comprises the bulk of skin and confers strength and resiliency, undergoes gradual fragmentation, which deleteriously impacts skin mechanical properties and dermal cell functions. Aging also affects wound repair, pigmentation, innervation, immunity, vasculature, and subcutaneous fat homeostasis. Altogether, age-related alterations of skin lead to age-related skin fragility and diseases. PMID:25561721

Population and labour force growth and patterns in ASEAN countries.

PubMed

Saw, S

1988-01-01

"The paper shows that the diverse labor dimensions prevailing in the ASEAN region can be attributed to changes in the structure of the society and economy in the course of recent economic development. It observes the considerable variety in the growth of the population and its effect on the labor force in the ASEAN region.... The paper details the similarity and diversity in the level and type of labor force participation rates. A common feature shared by ASEAN countries is a general pattern in the age-specific participation rate of men. In contrast, the women, aside from participating in the labor force at a much lower level than men at almost all ages, display diverse patterns of participation over the working age range. Lastly, the distribution of the labor force according to major industrial sectors in the six ASEAN countries is presented...." excerpt

Between activity and solidarity: Comprehending retirement and extended working lives in Swedish rural areas.

PubMed

Lundgren, Anna Sofia; Liliequist, Evelina; Sjöstedt Landén, Angelika

2018-03-01

The expected costs of population ageing have generally led to perceived needs to postpone the age of retirement. Drawing on 20 semi-structured interviews, the aim of this paper is to describe the ways that the possibility of an extended working life is comprehended by persons over the age of 60 living in sparsely populated areas in northern Sweden. While defining themselves as active, the interviewees argued strongly in favour of the right to retire. What are often described as opposing retiree subject positions - healthy and active vs. vulnerable and dependent - were partly transgressed in the interviews. The interviewees performed a solidarity that had the potential of including their future selves as possible objects of solidarity. Another important result was that in comprehending the possibility of an extended working life, morally charged notions of geographic place became central. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic Structure and the North American Postglacial Expansion of the Barnacle, Semibalanus balanoides

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Megan A.; Schmidt, Paul S.; Rand, David M.

2012-01-01

Population genetic characteristics are shaped by the life-history traits of organisms and the geologic history of their habitat. This study provides a neutral framework for understanding the population dynamics and opportunities for selection in Semibalanus balanoides, a species that figures prominently in ecological and evolutionary studies in the Atlantic intertidal. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region (N = 131) and microsatellite markers (∼40 individuals/site/locus) to survey populations of the broadly dispersing acorn barnacle from 8 sites spanning 800 km of North American coast and 1 site in Europe. Patterns of mtDNA sequence evolution were consistent with larger population sizes in Europe and population expansion at the conclusion of the last ice age, approximately 20 000 years ago, in North America. A significant portion of mitochondrial diversity was partitioned between the continents (φST = 0.281), but there was only weak structure observed from mtDNA within North America. Microsatellites showed significant structuring between the continents (FST = 0.021) as well as within North America (FST = 0.013). Isolation by distance in North America was largely driven by a split between populations south of Cape Cod and all others (P < 10−4). The glacial events responsible for generating allelic diversity at mtDNA and microsatellites may also be responsible for generating selectable variation at metabolic enzymes in S. balanoides. PMID:21885571

The evolution of antibiotic resistance in a structured host population.

PubMed

Blanquart, François; Lehtinen, Sonja; Lipsitch, Marc; Fraser, Christophe

2018-06-01

The evolution of antibiotic resistance in opportunistic pathogens such as Streptococcus pneumoniae , Escherichia coli or Staphylococcus aureus is a major public health problem, as infection with resistant strains leads to prolonged hospital stay and increased risk of death. Here, we develop a new model of the evolution of antibiotic resistance in a commensal bacterial population adapting to a heterogeneous host population composed of untreated and treated hosts, and structured in different host classes with different antibiotic use. Examples of host classes include age groups and geographic locations. Explicitly modelling the antibiotic treatment reveals that the emergence of a resistant strain is favoured by more frequent but shorter antibiotic courses, and by higher transmission rates. In addition, in a structured host population, localized transmission in host classes promotes both local adaptation of the bacterial population and the global maintenance of coexistence between sensitive and resistant strains. When transmission rates are heterogeneous across host classes, resistant strains evolve more readily in core groups of transmission. These findings have implications for the better management of antibiotic resistance: reducing the rate at which individuals receive antibiotics is more effective to reduce resistance than reducing the duration of treatment. Reducing the rate of treatment in a targeted class of the host population allows greater reduction in resistance, but determining which class to target is difficult in practice. © 2018 The Authors.

Inflammation and premature aging in advanced chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Kooman, Jeroen P; Dekker, Marijke J; Usvyat, Len A; Kotanko, Peter; van der Sande, Frank M; Schalkwijk, Casper G; Shiels, Paul G; Stenvinkel, Peter

2017-10-01

Systemic inflammation in end-stage renal disease is an established risk factor for mortality and a catalyst for other complications, which are related to a premature aging phenotype, including muscle wasting, vascular calcification, and other forms of premature vascular disease, depression, osteoporosis, and frailty. Uremic inflammation is also mechanistically related to mechanisms involved in the aging process, such as telomere shortening, mitochondrial dysfunction, and altered nutrient sensing, which can have a direct effect on cellular and tissue function. In addition to uremia-specific causes, such as abnormalities in the phosphate-Klotho axis, there are remarkable similarities between the pathophysiology of uremic inflammation and so-called "inflammaging" in the general population. Potentially relevant, but still somewhat unexplored in this respect, are abnormal or misplaced protein structures, as well as abnormalities in tissue homeostasis, which evoke danger signals through damage-associated molecular patterns, as well as the senescence-associated secretory phenotype. Systemic inflammation, in combination with the loss of kidney function, can impair the resilience of the body to external and internal stressors by reduced functional and structural tissue reserves, and by impairing normal organ crosstalk, thus providing an explanation for the greatly increased risk of homeostatic breakdown in this population. In this review, the relationship between uremic inflammation and a premature aging phenotype, as well as potential causes and consequences, are discussed. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Regeneration of Carnegiea gigantea (Cactaceae) since 1850 in three populations in the northern Sonoran Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drezner, Taly Dawn

2006-03-01

Saguaro cacti ( Carnegiea gigantea) are long-lived and exhibit great variability in growth that makes age estimation problematic. A few single-site studies have focused on those locales where long-term data (e.g. 85 years) are available. Using a newly developed technique, 733 saguaros were sampled in three locales (Silverbell, Harcuvar, Kofa) across Arizona and their age structure reconstructed for the last 150 years based on a mathematical model of the heights of individuals. This is the first study to compare regeneration at multiple locations across the species' range. Regression analysis for each site (years and frequency of individuals established during that year) was run and residuals extracted to determine peaks and troughs in regeneration over time. Correlation was run on the residuals between sites, and chi-square analysis was employed to compare frequency of good and bad regeneration years between Kofa and Silverbell. Peaks and troughs represent regeneration as well as survivorship and mortality. Several large cohorts established at Kofa and Harcuvar since 1850, while at Silverbell well over 80% of sampled saguaros established after the late 1930s. This more recent recruitment at Silverbell may be related to the major freezing event of 1937 whose impact was likely greater at the cooler Silverbell site. Despite the widely different population structures at Silverbell and Kofa, recruitment trends in both populations were statistically linked as both locales often benefited from the same favorable periods for regeneration ( P < 0.001). The Harcuvar population shares some common peaks and troughs in regeneration over time with Kofa and Silverbell, but its relationship to them is not statistically significant. Some trends overlap in some locales, such as the favorable regeneration period in the late 1800s and early 1900s, particularly at Silverbell and Kofa as well as at other known sites. However, each population has its own signature. Silverbell is a youthful population likely shaped by severe freezing events, while Kofa has many individuals representing regeneration at several different periods. Regeneration, mortality and subsequent population structure is shaped by both regional-scale influences as well as more localized conditions over the long and short terms.

[Population change and social organization].

PubMed

Tu, J C

1986-06-01

This paper, published in Taiwan in June, 1986, studies the impact of demographic changes on social organization through stable population theory as applied to the USA. The stable population model indicates a constant age differential between death ratio and birth ratio maintained for a period of time in a given population. Since the 1950's, the population growth rate in the US has been 1.5%; social security tax revenue should increase 50% to maintain equilibrium. According to the US Census Bureau, in 1940, 11 people in 100 were age 65 or over; in 1980, 19 per 100; and 1 estimate places 32 in 100 over 65 in the year 2030. In 90 years the proportion of senior citizens will increase 3 times; social security taxes should consequently also increase 3 times. The stable population model would mean that social security tax should double its current rate to maintain equilibrium. However, based on the actual change in the population's age structure, social security tax should in fact increase at least 3 times. From 1940 to the present, social security tax revenue has already increased 3 times. Turning to education, in 1961, 4.39 million babies were born in the US. By the mid-1970's, births had slowed to an annual average of 3 million. The decrease in number of university students and posts available to Ph.Ds follows the birth rate change of 20 years earlier. Many graduate institutions will be influenced by this decrease in births. From another perspective, the birth rate decrease has also reduced the educational burden on society, and should provide more opportunities and resources. However, in the American educational system, research opportunities are determined by teaching positions which are dependent upon university enrollment figures. The US Census Bureau predicts that enrollment rates must double in order to compensate for the decrease in university age population.

The Occupy Central (Umbrella) movement and mental health distress in the Hong Kong general public: political movements and concerns as potential structural risk factors of population mental health.

PubMed

Lau, Joseph T F; Kim, Yoona; Wu, Anise M S; Wang, Zixin; Huang, Bishan; Mo, Phoenix K H

2017-05-01

Political tension, as expressed by mass movements such as the Occupy Central movement (2014) in Hong Kong, is a potential but understudied structural factor of population mental health. A random population-based telephone survey anonymously interviewed 344 Hong Kong Chinese adults aged 18-65 years during the 2 weeks since the termination date of the 2-month-long Occupy Central movement (15/12/2014). Linear regression models were fit using mental distress (depression, anxiety and negative mood) and self-perceived changes in mood/sleeping quality as dependent variables. Prevalence of participation in the movement was 10.5% (self), 17.7% (family members/relatives), and 34.0% (peers); 8.5% had participated for ≥2 days. Young age, but not participation, was associated with mental distress. In adjusted analysis, three types of responses to the movement (worry about safety, negative emotional responses to media reports, and conflicts with peers about the movement) and emotional responses to local political situations were significantly associated with all/some of the dependent variables related to mental distress. The variable on emotions toward local political situations was correlated with the three responses to the movement; it fully mediated the associations between such responses and mental distress. Many citizens participated in the movement, which was led by youths and might have increased the general public's mental distress. Negative personal responses to the movement and emotions toward political situations were potential risk factors. As the political tension would last and political pessimism is globally found, politics may have become a regular and persistent structural risk factor negatively affecting population mental health.

Characterizing the Aedes aegypti Population in a Vietnamese Village in Preparation for a Wolbachia-Based Mosquito Control Strategy to Eliminate Dengue

PubMed Central

Jeffery, Jason A. L.; Thi Yen, Nguyen; Nam, Vu Sinh; Nghia, Le Trung; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Kay, Brian H.; Ryan, Peter A.

2009-01-01

Background A life-shortening strain of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia, called wMelPop, is seen as a promising new tool for the control of Aedes aegypti. However, developing a vector control strategy based on the release of mosquitoes transinfected with wMelPop requires detailed knowledge of the demographics of the target population. Methodology/Principal Findings In Tri Nguyen village (611 households) on Hon Mieu Island in central Vietnam, we conducted nine quantitative entomologic surveys over 14 months to determine if Ae. aegypti populations were spatially and temporally homogenous, and to estimate population size. There was no obvious relationship between mosquito (larval, pupal or adult) abundance and temperature and rainfall, and no area of the village supported consistently high numbers of mosquitoes. In almost all surveys, key premises produced high numbers of Ae. aegypti. However, these premises were not consistent between surveys. For an intervention based on a single release of wMelPop-infected Ae. aegypti, release ratios of infected to uninfected adult mosquitoes of all age classes are estimated to be 1.8–6.7∶1 for gravid females (and similarly aged males) or teneral adults, respectively. We calculated that adult female mosquito abundance in Tri Nguyen village could range from 1.1 to 43.3 individuals of all age classes per house. Thus, an intervention could require the release of 2–78 wMelPop-infected gravid females and similarly aged males per house, or 7–290 infected teneral female and male mosquitoes per house. Conclusions/Significance Given the variability we encountered, this study highlights the importance of multiple entomologic surveys when evaluating the spatial structure of a vector population or estimating population size. If a single release of wMelPop-infected Ae. aegypti were to occur when wild Ae. aegypti abundance was at its maximum, a preintervention control program would be necessary to ensure that there was no net increase in mosquito numbers. However, because of the short-term temporal heterogeneity, the inconsistent spatial structure and the impact of transient key premises that we observed, the feasibility of multiple releases of smaller numbers of mosquitoes also needs to be considered. In either case, fewer wMelPop-infected mosquitoes would then need to be released, which will likely be more acceptable to householders. PMID:19956588

Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

PubMed

Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

2013-01-01

Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

An Educational Perspective of Autism: Implications for Curriculum Development and Personnel Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donnellan, Anne M.

The paper addresses the history and current status of educational provisions for autistic students, discusses the requirements for effective education for this population, and analyzes the implications for teacher education practices. A status report cites lack of structure in programs, non-functional and age-inappropriate curricula, largely…

Breeding black walnuts in the age of genomics

Treesearch

Mark V. Coggeshall; Jeanne Romero-Severson

2013-01-01

Molecular markers have been used in several walnut species to help reconstruct breeding program pedigrees, to characterize genetic structure in natural Juglans populations, to determine the impact of different timber harvest scenarios on residual levels of genetic diversity, and to quantify the effects of interspecific hybridization on subsequent...

Life tables as tools of evaluation and quality control for arthropod mass production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Life tables, as a basic concept, are descriptions of survival potential at various ages or stages. Understanding critical life stages of arthropod development and their influence on the population structure is of great importance for arthropod rearing systems. Another important advantage of a life t...

Population properties affect inbreeding avoidance in moose

PubMed Central

Herfindal, Ivar; Haanes, Hallvard; Røed, Knut H.; Solberg, Erling J.; Markussen, Stine S.; Heim, Morten; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2014-01-01

Mechanisms reducing inbreeding are thought to have evolved owing to fitness costs of breeding with close relatives. In small and isolated populations, or populations with skewed age- or sex distributions, mate choice becomes limited, and inbreeding avoidance mechanisms ineffective. We used a unique individual-based dataset on moose from a small island in Norway to assess whether inbreeding avoidance was related to population structure and size, expecting inbreeding avoidance to be greater in years with larger populations and even adult sex ratios. The probability that a potential mating event was realized was negatively related to the inbreeding coefficient of the potential offspring, with a stronger relationship in years with a higher proportion or number of males in the population. Thus, adult sex ratio and population size affect the degree of inbreeding avoidance. Consequently, conservation managers should aim for sex ratios that facilitate inbreeding avoidance, especially in small and isolated populations. PMID:25540152

Loss of genetic connectivity and diversity in urban microreserves in a southern California endemic Jerusalem cricket (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae: Stenopelmatus n. sp. "santa monica")

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergast, A.G.; Lewallen, E.A.; Deas, J.; Bohonak, A.J.; Weissman, D.B.; Fisher, R.N.

2009-01-01

Microreserves may be useful in protecting native arthropod diversity in urbanized landscapes. However, species that do not disperse through the urban matrix may eventually be lost from these fragments. Population extinctions may be precipitated by an increase in genetic differentiation among fragments and loss of genetic diversity within fragments, and these effects should become stronger with time. We analyzed population genetic structure in the dispersal limited Jerusalem cricket Stenopelmatus n. sp. "santa monica" in the Santa Monica Mountains and Simi Hills north of Los Angeles, California (CA), to determine the impacts of fragmentation over the past 70 years. MtDNA divergence was greater among urban fragments than within contiguous habitat and was positively correlated with fragment age. MtDNA genetic diversity within fragments increased with fragment size and decreased with fragment age. Genetic divergence across 38 anonymous nuclear Inter-Simple Sequence Repeat (ISSR) loci was influenced by the presence of major highways and highway age, but there was no effect of additional urban fragmentation. ISSR diversity was not correlated with fragment size or age. Differing results between markers may be due to male-biased dispersal, or different effective population sizes, sorting rates, or mutation rates among sampled genes. Results suggest that genetic connectivity among populations has been disrupted by highways and urban development, prior to declines in local population sizes. We emphasize that genetic connectivity can rapidly erode in fragmented landscapes and that flightless arthropods can serve as sensitive indicators for these effects. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Estimation by capture-recapture of recruitment and dispersal over several sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lebreton, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Pradel, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.

2003-01-01

Dispersal in animal populations is intimately linked with accession to reproduction, i.e. recruitment, and population regulation. Dispersal processes are thus a key component of population dynamics to the same extent as reproduction or mortality processes. Despite the growing interest in spatial aspects of population dynamics, the methodology for estimating dispersal, in particular in relation with recruitment, is limited. In many animal populations, in particular vertebrates, the impossibility of following individuals over space and time in an exhaustive way leads to the need to frame the estimation of dispersal in the context of capture-recapture methodology. We present here a class of age-dependent multistate capture-recapture models for the simultaneous estimation of natal dispersal, breeding dispersal, and age-dependent recruitment. These models are suitable for populations in which individuals are marked at birth and then recaptured over several sites. Under simple constraints, they can be used in populations where non-breeders are not observed, as is often the case with colonial waterbirds monitored on their breeding grounds. Biological questions can be addressed by comparing models differing in structure, according to the generalized linear model philosophy broadly used in capture-recapture methodology. We illustrate the potential of this approach by an analysis of recruitment and dispersal in the roseate tern Sterna dougallii.