Building the Evidence Base for Population-Level Interventions: Barriers and Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lifsey, Sarah; Cash, Amanda; Anthony, Jodi; Mathis, Sheryl; Silva, Sandra

2015-01-01

Population-level interventions focused on policy, systems, and environmental change strategies are increasingly being used to affect and improve the health of populations. At the same time, emphasis on implementing evidence-based public health practices and programming is increasing, particularly at the federal level. Valuing strategies in the…

Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

PubMed

Tkachenko, Natalie; Weissmann, John D; Petersen, Wesley P; Lake, George; Zollikofer, Christoph P E; Callegari, Simone

2017-01-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) of human populations capture spatio-temporal dynamics using rules that govern the birth, behavior, and death of individuals. We explore a stochastic IBM of logistic growth-diffusion with constant time steps and independent, simultaneous actions of birth, death, and movement that approaches the Fisher-Kolmogorov model in the continuum limit. This model is well-suited to parallelization on high-performance computers. We explore its emergent properties with analytical approximations and numerical simulations in parameter ranges relevant to human population dynamics and ecology, and reproduce continuous-time results in the limit of small transition probabilities. Our model prediction indicates that the population density and dispersal speed are affected by fluctuations in the number of individuals. The discrete-time model displays novel properties owing to the binomial character of the fluctuations: in certain regimes of the growth model, a decrease in time step size drives the system away from the continuum limit. These effects are especially important at local population sizes of <50 individuals, which largely correspond to group sizes of hunter-gatherers. As an application scenario, we model the late Pleistocene dispersal of Homo sapiens into the Americas, and discuss the agreement of model-based estimates of first-arrival dates with archaeological dates in dependence of IBM model parameter settings.

Applying the multivariate time-rescaling theorem to neural population models

PubMed Central

Gerhard, Felipe; Haslinger, Robert; Pipa, Gordon

2011-01-01

Statistical models of neural activity are integral to modern neuroscience. Recently, interest has grown in modeling the spiking activity of populations of simultaneously recorded neurons to study the effects of correlations and functional connectivity on neural information processing. However any statistical model must be validated by an appropriate goodness-of-fit test. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests based upon the time-rescaling theorem have proven to be useful for evaluating point-process-based statistical models of single-neuron spike trains. Here we discuss the extension of the time-rescaling theorem to the multivariate (neural population) case. We show that even in the presence of strong correlations between spike trains, models which neglect couplings between neurons can be erroneously passed by the univariate time-rescaling test. We present the multivariate version of the time-rescaling theorem, and provide a practical step-by-step procedure for applying it towards testing the sufficiency of neural population models. Using several simple analytically tractable models and also more complex simulated and real data sets, we demonstrate that important features of the population activity can only be detected using the multivariate extension of the test. PMID:21395436

A comprehensive review of prehospital and in-hospital delay times in acute stroke care.

PubMed

Evenson, K R; Foraker, R E; Morris, D L; Rosamond, W D

2009-06-01

The purpose of this study was to systematically review and summarize prehospital and in-hospital stroke evaluation and treatment delay times. We identified 123 unique peer-reviewed studies published from 1981 to 2007 of prehospital and in-hospital delay time for evaluation and treatment of patients with stroke, transient ischemic attack, or stroke-like symptoms. Based on studies of 65 different population groups, the weighted Poisson regression indicated a 6.0% annual decline (P<0.001) in hours/year for prehospital delay, defined from symptom onset to emergency department arrival. For in-hospital delay, the weighted Poisson regression models indicated no meaningful changes in delay time from emergency department arrival to emergency department evaluation (3.1%, P=0.49 based on 12 population groups). There was a 10.2% annual decline in hours/year from emergency department arrival to neurology evaluation or notification (P=0.23 based on 16 population groups) and a 10.7% annual decline in hours/year for delay time from emergency department arrival to initiation of computed tomography (P=0.11 based on 23 population groups). Only one study reported on times from arrival to computed tomography scan interpretation, two studies on arrival to drug administration, and no studies on arrival to transfer to an in-patient setting, precluding generalizations. Prehospital delay continues to contribute the largest proportion of delay time. The next decade provides opportunities to establish more effective community-based interventions worldwide. It will be crucial to have effective stroke surveillance systems in place to better understand and improve both prehospital and in-hospital delays for acute stroke care.

Non-parametric estimation of population size changes from the site frequency spectrum.

PubMed

Waltoft, Berit Lindum; Hobolth, Asger

2018-06-11

Changes in population size is a useful quantity for understanding the evolutionary history of a species. Genetic variation within a species can be summarized by the site frequency spectrum (SFS). For a sample of size n, the SFS is a vector of length n - 1 where entry i is the number of sites where the mutant base appears i times and the ancestral base appears n - i times. We present a new method, CubSFS, for estimating the changes in population size of a panmictic population from an observed SFS. First, we provide a straightforward proof for the expression of the expected site frequency spectrum depending only on the population size. Our derivation is based on an eigenvalue decomposition of the instantaneous coalescent rate matrix. Second, we solve the inverse problem of determining the changes in population size from an observed SFS. Our solution is based on a cubic spline for the population size. The cubic spline is determined by minimizing the weighted average of two terms, namely (i) the goodness of fit to the observed SFS, and (ii) a penalty term based on the smoothness of the changes. The weight is determined by cross-validation. The new method is validated on simulated demographic histories and applied on unfolded and folded SFS from 26 different human populations from the 1000 Genomes Project.

Population growth enhances the mean fixation time of neutral mutations and the persistence of neutral variation.

PubMed

Waxman, D

2012-06-01

A fundamental result of population genetics states that a new mutation, at an unlinked neutral locus in a randomly mating diploid population, has a mean time of fixation of ∼4N(e) generations, where N(e) is the effective population size. This result is based on an assumption of fixed population size, which does not universally hold in natural populations. Here, we analyze such neutral fixations in populations of changing size within the framework of the diffusion approximation. General expressions are derived for the mean and variance of the fixation time in changing populations. Some explicit results are given for two cases: (i) the effective population size undergoes a sudden change, representing a sudden population expansion or a sudden bottleneck; (ii) the effective population changes linearly for a limited period of time and then remains constant. Additionally, a lower bound for the mean time of fixation is obtained for an effective population size that increases with time, and this is applied to exponentially growing populations. The results obtained in this work show, among other things, that for populations that increase in size, the mean time of fixation can be enhanced, sometimes substantially so, over 4N(e,0) generations, where N(e,0) is the effective population size at the time the mutation arises. Such an enhancement is associated with (i) an increased probability of neutral polymorphism in a population and (ii) an enhanced persistence of high-frequency neutral variation, which is the variation most likely to be observed.

Using effort information with change-in-ratio data for population estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1995-01-01

Most change-in-ratio (CIR) methods for estimating fish and wildlife population sizes have been based only on assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary among population subclasses. When information on sampling effort is available, it is also possible to derive CIR estimators based on assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time. This paper presents a generalization of previous CIR models that allows explicit consideration of a range of assumptions about the variation of encounter probabilities among subclasses and over time. Explicit estimators are derived under this model for specific sets of assumptions about the encounter probabilities. Numerical methods are presented for obtaining estimators under the full range of possible assumptions. Likelihood ratio tests for these assumptions are described. Emphasis is on obtaining estimators based on assumptions about variation of encounter probabilities over time.

Using Geographical Information Systems to Identify Populations in Need of Improved Accessibility to Antivenom Treatment for Snakebite Envenoming in Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Hansson, Erik; Sasa, Mahmood; Mattisson, Kristoffer; Robles, Arodys; Gutiérrez, José María

2013-01-01

Introduction Snakebite accidents are an important health problem in rural areas of tropical countries worldwide, including Costa Rica, where most bites are caused by the pit-viper Bothrops asper. The treatment of these potentially fatal accidents is based on the timely administration of specific antivenom. In many regions of the world, insufficient health care systems and lack of antivenom in remote and poor areas where snakebites are common, means that efficient treatment is unavailable for many snakebite victims, leading to unnecessary mortality and morbidity. In this study, geographical information systems (GIS) were used to identify populations in Costa Rica with a need of improved access to antivenom treatment: those living in areas with a high risk of snakebites and long time to reach antivenom treatment. Method/Principal Findings Populations living in areas with high risk of snakebites were identified using two approaches: one based on the district-level reported incidence, and another based on mapping environmental factors favoring B. asper presence. Time to reach treatment using ambulance was estimated using cost surface analysis, thereby enabling adjustment of transportation speed by road availability and quality, topography and land use. By mapping populations in high risk of snakebites and the estimated time to treatment, populations with need of improved treatment access were identified. Conclusion/Significance This study demonstrates the usefulness of GIS for improving treatment of snakebites. By mapping reported incidence, risk factors, location of existing treatment resources, and the time estimated to reach these for at-risk populations, rational allocation of treatment resources is facilitated. PMID:23383352

Using geographical information systems to identify populations in need of improved accessibility to antivenom treatment for snakebite envenoming in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Hansson, Erik; Sasa, Mahmood; Mattisson, Kristoffer; Robles, Arodys; Gutiérrez, José María

2013-01-01

Snakebite accidents are an important health problem in rural areas of tropical countries worldwide, including Costa Rica, where most bites are caused by the pit-viper Bothrops asper. The treatment of these potentially fatal accidents is based on the timely administration of specific antivenom. In many regions of the world, insufficient health care systems and lack of antivenom in remote and poor areas where snakebites are common, means that efficient treatment is unavailable for many snakebite victims, leading to unnecessary mortality and morbidity. In this study, geographical information systems (GIS) were used to identify populations in Costa Rica with a need of improved access to antivenom treatment: those living in areas with a high risk of snakebites and long time to reach antivenom treatment. Populations living in areas with high risk of snakebites were identified using two approaches: one based on the district-level reported incidence, and another based on mapping environmental factors favoring B. asper presence. Time to reach treatment using ambulance was estimated using cost surface analysis, thereby enabling adjustment of transportation speed by road availability and quality, topography and land use. By mapping populations in high risk of snakebites and the estimated time to treatment, populations with need of improved treatment access were identified. This study demonstrates the usefulness of GIS for improving treatment of snakebites. By mapping reported incidence, risk factors, location of existing treatment resources, and the time estimated to reach these for at-risk populations, rational allocation of treatment resources is facilitated.

Computer-aided system of evaluation for population-based all-in-one service screening (CASE-PASS): from study design to outcome analysis with bias adjustment.

PubMed

Chen, Li-Sheng; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Duffy, Stephen W; Tabar, Laszlo; Lin, Wen-Chou; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

2010-10-01

Population-based routine service screening has gained popularity following an era of randomized controlled trials. The evaluation of these service screening programs is subject to study design, data availability, and the precise data analysis for adjusting bias. We developed a computer-aided system that allows the evaluation of population-based service screening to unify these aspects and facilitate and guide the program assessor to efficiently perform an evaluation. This system underpins two experimental designs: the posttest-only non-equivalent design and the one-group pretest-posttest design and demonstrates the type of data required at both the population and individual levels. Three major analyses were developed that included a cumulative mortality analysis, survival analysis with lead-time adjustment, and self-selection bias adjustment. We used SAS AF software to develop a graphic interface system with a pull-down menu style. We demonstrate the application of this system with data obtained from a Swedish population-based service screen and a population-based randomized controlled trial for the screening of breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer, and one service screening program for cervical cancer with Pap smears. The system provided automated descriptive results based on the various sources of available data and cumulative mortality curves corresponding to the study designs. The comparison of cumulative survival between clinically and screen-detected cases without a lead-time adjustment are also demonstrated. The intention-to-treat and noncompliance analysis with self-selection bias adjustments are also shown to assess the effectiveness of the population-based service screening program. Model validation was composed of a comparison between our adjusted self-selection bias estimates and the empirical results on effectiveness reported in the literature. We demonstrate a computer-aided system allowing the evaluation of population-based service screening programs with an adjustment for self-selection and lead-time bias. This is achieved by providing a tutorial guide from the study design to the data analysis, with bias adjustment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Key Design Considerations When Calculating Cost Savings for Population Health Management Programs in an Observational Setting.

PubMed

Murphy, Shannon M E; Hough, Douglas E; Sylvia, Martha L; Dunbar, Linda J; Frick, Kevin D

2018-02-08

To illustrate the impact of key quasi-experimental design elements on cost savings measurement for population health management (PHM) programs. Population health management program records and Medicaid claims and enrollment data from December 2011 through March 2016. The study uses a difference-in-difference design to compare changes in cost and utilization outcomes between program participants and propensity score-matched nonparticipants. Comparisons of measured savings are made based on (1) stable versus dynamic population enrollment and (2) all eligible versus enrolled-only participant definitions. Options for the operationalization of time are also discussed. Individual-level Medicaid administrative and claims data and PHM program records are used to match study groups on baseline risk factors and assess changes in costs and utilization. Savings estimates are statistically similar but smaller in magnitude when eliminating variability based on duration of population enrollment and when evaluating program impact on the entire target population. Measurement in calendar time, when possible, simplifies interpretability. Program evaluation design elements, including population stability and participant definitions, can influence the estimated magnitude of program savings for the payer and should be considered carefully. Time specifications can also affect interpretability and usefulness. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

PubMed

Hu, Zhongkai; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Y; Zhu, Chunqing; Zhao, Yifan; Hao, Shiying; Zheng, Le; Fu, Changlin; Wen, Qiaojun; Ji, Jun; Li, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Zheng, Xiaolin; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-13

An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for ED visits across all payers, all diseases, and all age groups. Therefore, providers can implement targeted care management strategies to the patient subgroups with similar patterns of clinical histories, driving the delivery of more efficient and effective health care interventions. To the best of our knowledge, this prospectively validated EMR-based, Web-based tool is the first one to allow real-time total population risk assessment for statewide ED visits.

Updated population metadata for United States historical climatology network stations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Owen, T.W.; Gallo, K.P.

2000-01-01

The United States Historical Climatology Network (HCN) serial temperature dataset is comprised of 1221 high-quality, long-term climate observing stations. The HCN dataset is available in several versions, one of which includes population-based temperature modifications to adjust urban temperatures for the "heat-island" effect. Unfortunately, the decennial population metadata file is not complete as missing values are present for 17.6% of the 12 210 population values associated with the 1221 individual stations during the 1900-90 interval. Retrospective grid-based populations. Within a fixed distance of an HCN station, were estimated through the use of a gridded population density dataset and historically available U.S. Census county data. The grid-based populations for the HCN stations provide values derived from a consistent methodology compared to the current HCN populations that can vary as definitions of the area associated with a city change over time. The use of grid-based populations may minimally be appropriate to augment populations for HCN climate stations that lack any population data, and are recommended when consistent and complete population data are required. The recommended urban temperature adjustments based on the HCN and grid-based methods of estimating station population can be significantly different for individual stations within the HCN dataset.

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ribic, C.A.; Sheavly, S.B.; Rugg, D.J.; Erdmann, Eric S.

2010-01-01

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue. ?? 2010.

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007.

PubMed

Ribic, Christine A; Sheavly, Seba B; Rugg, David J; Erdmann, Eric S

2010-08-01

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

We present a study, based on simulations with SERDYCA, a spatially-explicit individual based model of rodent dynamics, on the connection between population persistence and the presence of inhomogeneities in the habitat. We are specifically interested on the effect that inhomogeneities that do not fragment the environment, have on population persistence. Our results suggest that a certain percentage of inhomogeneities can increase the average time to extinction of the population. Inhomogeneities decrease the population density and can increase the ratio of juveniles in the population thus providing a better chance for the population to restore itself after a severe period withmore » critically low population density. We call this the ''inhomogeneity localization effect''.« less

A model for identifying and ranking need for trauma service in nonmetropolitan regions based on injury risk and access to services.

PubMed

Schuurman, Nadine; Bell, Nathaniel; Hameed, Morad S; Simons, Richard

2008-07-01

Timely access to definitive trauma care has been shown to improve survival rates after severe injury. Unfortunately, despite development of sophisticated trauma systems, prompt, definitive trauma care remains unavailable to over 50 million North Americans, particularly in rural areas. Measures to quantify social and geographic isolation may provide important insights for the development of health policy aimed at reducing the burden of injury and improving access to trauma care in presently under serviced populations. Indices of social deprivation based on census data, and spatial analyses of access to trauma centers based on street network files were combined into a single index, the Population Isolation Vulnerability Amplifier (PIVA) to characterize vulnerability to trauma in socioeconomically and geographically diverse rural and urban communities across British Columbia. Regions with a sufficient core population that are more than one hour travel time from existing services were ranked based on their level of socioeconomic vulnerability. Ten regions throughout the province were identified as most in need of trauma services based on population, isolation and vulnerability. Likewise, 10 communities were classified as some of the least isolated areas and were simultaneously classified as least vulnerable populations in province. The model was verified using trauma services utilization data from the British Columbia Trauma Registry. These data indicate that including vulnerability in the model provided superior results to running the model based only on population and road travel time. Using the PIVA model we have shown that across Census Urban Areas there are wide variations in population dependence on and distances to accredited tertiary/district trauma centers throughout British Columbia. Many of the factors that influence access to definitive trauma care can be combined into a single quantifiable model that researchers in the health sector can use to predict where to place new services. The model can also be used to locate optimal locations for any basket of health services.

Intercoalescence time distribution of incomplete gene genealogies in temporally varying populations, and applications in population genetic inference.

PubMed

Chen, Hua

2013-03-01

Tracing back to a specific time T in the past, the genealogy of a sample of haplotypes may not have reached their common ancestor and may leave m lineages extant. For such an incomplete genealogy truncated at a specific time T in the past, the distribution and expectation of the intercoalescence times conditional on T are derived in an exact form in this paper for populations of deterministically time-varying sizes, specifically, for populations growing exponentially. The derived intercoalescence time distribution can be integrated to the coalescent-based joint allele frequency spectrum (JAFS) theory, and is useful for population genetic inference from large-scale genomic data, without relying on computationally intensive approaches, such as importance sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The inference of several important parameters relying on this derived conditional distribution is demonstrated: quantifying population growth rate and onset time, and estimating the number of ancestral lineages at a specific ancient time. Simulation studies confirm validity of the derivation and statistical efficiency of the methods using the derived intercoalescence time distribution. Two examples of real data are given to show the inference of the population growth rate of a European sample from the NIEHS Environmental Genome Project, and the number of ancient lineages of 31 mitochondrial genomes from Tibetan populations. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/University College London.

Static metrics of impact for a dynamic problem: The need for smarter tools to guide suicide prevention planning and investment.

PubMed

Page, Andrew; Atkinson, Jo-An; Heffernan, Mark; McDonnell, Geoff; Prodan, Ante; Osgood, Nathaniel; Hickie, Ian

2018-01-01

This study investigates two approaches to estimate the potential impact of a population-level intervention on Australian suicide, to highlight the importance of selecting appropriate analytic approaches for informing evidence-based strategies for suicide prevention. The potential impact of a psychosocial therapy intervention on the incidence of suicide in Australia over the next 10 years was used as a case study to compare the potential impact on suicides averted using: (1) a traditional epidemiological measure of population attributable risk and (2) a dynamic measure of population impact based on a systems science model of suicide that incorporates changes over time. Based on the population preventive fraction, findings suggest that the psychosocial therapy intervention if implemented among all eligible individuals in the Australian population would prevent 5.4% of suicides (or 1936 suicides) over the next 10 years. In comparison, estimates from the dynamic simulation model which accounts for changes in the effect size of the intervention over time, the time taken for the intervention to have an impact in the population, and likely barriers to the uptake and availability of services suggest that the intervention would avert a lower proportion of suicides (between 0.4% and 0.5%) over the same follow-up period. Traditional epidemiological measures used to estimate population health burden have several limitations that are often understated and can lead to unrealistic expectations of the potential impact of evidence-based interventions in real-world settings. This study highlights these limitations and proposes an alternative analytic approach to guide policy and practice decisions to achieve reductions in Australian suicide.

Evaluating the Impact of an Accountable Care Organization on Population Health: The Quasi-Experimental Design of the German Gesundes Kinzigtal.

PubMed

Pimperl, Alexander; Schulte, Timo; Mühlbacher, Axel; Rosenmöller, Magdalena; Busse, Reinhard; Groene, Oliver; Rodriguez, Hector P; Hildebrandt, Helmut

2017-06-01

A central goal of accountable care organizations (ACOs) is to improve the health of their accountable population. No evidence currently links ACO development to improved population health. A major challenge to establishing the evidence base for the impact of ACOs on population health is the absence of a theoretically grounded, robust, operationally feasible, and meaningful research design. The authors present an evaluation study design, provide an empirical example, and discuss considerations for generating the evidence base for ACO implementation. A quasi-experimental study design using propensity score matching in combination with small-scale exact matching is implemented. Outcome indicators based on claims data were constructed and analyzed. Population health is measured by using a range of mortality indicators: mortality ratio, age at time of death, years of potential life lost/gained, and survival time. The application is assessed using longitudinal data from Gesundes Kinzigtal, one of the leading population-based ACOs in Germany. The proposed matching approach resulted in a balanced control of observable differences between the intervention (ACO) and control groups. The mortality indicators used indicate positive results. For example, 635.6 fewer years of potential life lost (2005.8 vs. 2641.4; t-test: sig. P < 0.05*) in the ACO intervention group (n = 5411) attributable to the ACO, also after controlling for a potential (indirect) immortal time bias by excluding the first half year after enrollment from the outcome measurement. This empirical example of the impact of a German ACO on population health can be extended to the evaluation of ACOs and other integrated delivery models of care.

Spatial optimization of prairie dog colonies for black-footed ferret recovery

Treesearch

Michael Bevers; John G. Hof; Daniel W. Uresk; Gregory L. Schenbeck

1997-01-01

A discrete-time reaction-diffusion model for black-footed ferret release, population growth, and dispersal is combined with ferret carrying capacity constraints based on prairie dog population management decisions to form a spatial optimization model. Spatial arrangement of active prairie dog colonies within a ferret reintroduction area is optimized over time for...

Segmenting lung fields in serial chest radiographs using both population-based and patient-specific shape statistics.

PubMed

Shi, Y; Qi, F; Xue, Z; Chen, L; Ito, K; Matsuo, H; Shen, D

2008-04-01

This paper presents a new deformable model using both population-based and patient-specific shape statistics to segment lung fields from serial chest radiographs. There are two novelties in the proposed deformable model. First, a modified scale invariant feature transform (SIFT) local descriptor, which is more distinctive than the general intensity and gradient features, is used to characterize the image features in the vicinity of each pixel. Second, the deformable contour is constrained by both population-based and patient-specific shape statistics, and it yields more robust and accurate segmentation of lung fields for serial chest radiographs. In particular, for segmenting the initial time-point images, the population-based shape statistics is used to constrain the deformable contour; as more subsequent images of the same patient are acquired, the patient-specific shape statistics online collected from the previous segmentation results gradually takes more roles. Thus, this patient-specific shape statistics is updated each time when a new segmentation result is obtained, and it is further used to refine the segmentation results of all the available time-point images. Experimental results show that the proposed method is more robust and accurate than other active shape models in segmenting the lung fields from serial chest radiographs.

Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.

PubMed

Pfaller, Joseph B; Bjorndal, Karen A; Chaloupka, Milani; Williams, Kristina L; Frick, Michael G; Bolten, Alan B

2013-01-01

Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.

Model-based prediction of nephropathia epidemica outbreaks based on climatological and vegetation data and bank vole population dynamics.

PubMed

Haredasht, S Amirpour; Taylor, C J; Maes, P; Verstraeten, W W; Clement, J; Barrios, M; Lagrou, K; Van Ranst, M; Coppin, P; Berckmans, D; Aerts, J-M

2013-11-01

Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases in general are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses more specifically cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, while understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics pose numerous unsolved challenges. Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus, which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective of this study was to develop a method that allows model-based predicting 3 months ahead of the occurrence of NE epidemics. Two data sets were utilized to develop and test the models. These data sets were concerned with NE cases in Finland and Belgium. In this study, we selected the most relevant inputs from all the available data for use in a dynamic linear regression (DLR) model. The number of NE cases in Finland were modelled using data from 1996 to 2008. The NE cases were predicted based on the time series data of average monthly air temperature (°C) and bank voles' trapping index using a DLR model. The bank voles' trapping index data were interpolated using a related dynamic harmonic regression model (DHR). Here, the DLR and DHR models used time-varying parameters. Both the DHR and DLR models were based on a unified state-space estimation framework. For the Belgium case, no time series of the bank voles' population dynamics were available. Several studies, however, have suggested that the population of bank voles is related to the variation in seed production of beech and oak trees in Northern Europe. Therefore, the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium was predicted based on a DLR model by using remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests, together with the oak and beech seed categories and average monthly air temperature (°C) using data from 2001 to 2009. Our results suggest that even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host population, the time variation in NE outbreaks in Finland could be predicted 3 months ahead with a 34% mean relative prediction error (MRPE). This took into account solely the population dynamics of the carrier species (bank voles). The time series analysis also revealed that climate change, as represented by the vegetation index, changes in forest phenology derived from satellite images and directly measured air temperature, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission. NE outbreaks in Belgium were predicted 3 months ahead with a 40% MRPE, based only on the climatological and vegetation data, in this case, without any knowledge of the bank vole's population dynamics. In this research, we demonstrated that NE outbreaks can be predicted using climate and vegetation data or the bank vole's population dynamics, by using dynamic data-based models with time-varying parameters. Such a predictive modelling approach might be used as a step towards the development of new tools for the prevention of future NE outbreaks. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

CDMetaPOP: An individual-based, eco-evolutionary model for spatially explicit simulation of landscape demogenetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Landguth, Erin L; Bearlin, Andrew; Day, Casey; Dunham, Jason B.

2016-01-01

1. Combining landscape demographic and genetics models offers powerful methods for addressing questions for eco-evolutionary applications.2. Using two illustrative examples, we present Cost–Distance Meta-POPulation, a program to simulate changes in neutral and/or selection-driven genotypes through time as a function of individual-based movement, complex spatial population dynamics, and multiple and changing landscape drivers.3. Cost–Distance Meta-POPulation provides a novel tool for questions in landscape genetics by incorporating population viability analysis, while linking directly to conservation applications.

Activity patterns and time budgets of the declining sea otter population at Amchitka Island, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gelatt, Thomas S.; Siniff, Donald B.; Estes, James A.

2002-01-01

Time budgets of predators may reflect population status if time spent foraging varies with local prey abun- dance. We assumed that the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population at Amchitka Island, Alaska, USA, had been at equilibrium since the early 1960s and collected time budgets of otters to be used to represent future conditions of currently expanding sea otter populations. We used radiotelemetry to monitor activity-time budgets of otters from August 1992 to March 1994. Sea otter activity was directly linked to sex, age, weather condition, season, and time of day. Sea otters differed in percent time foraging among cohorts but not within cohorts. Percent time foraging ranged from 21% for females with very young (≤ 3weeks of age) dependent pups to 52% for females with old (≥10 weeks of age) pups. Otters foraged more and hauled out more as local sea conditions worsened. Adult males spent less time foraging during winter and spring, consistent with seasonal changes in prey selection. Time spent for- aging was similar to that reported for otters in California and an established population in Prince William Sound, Alaska, but greater than that of otters in recently established populations in Oregon and Alaska. Despite current evidence indicating that the population was in decline during our study, we were unable to recognize this change using time budgets. Our results illustrate the importance of stratifying analyses of activity patterns by age and sex cohorts and the complexity inherent in comparisons of behavioral data between different populations relying on distinct prey bases.

Parental timing of allergenic food introduction in urban and suburban populations.

PubMed

Hartman, Heather; Dodd, Caitlin; Rao, Marepalli; DeBlasio, Dominick; Labowsky, Christine; D'Souza, Sharon; Lenkauskas, Siga; Roeser, Eve; Heffernan, Alison; Assa'ad, Amal

2016-07-01

Recommendations on timing for introduction of allergenic foods in an infant diet have changed twice during the past decade. How families with different demographic characteristics implement the change has not been studied in the United States. To compare the age of introduction of allergenic foods between an urban Medicaid-based population and a suburban private insurance-based population in Cincinnati, Ohio. Two hundred parent surveys were distributed at well-child checkups between 4 and 36 months of age. Data were analyzed using distribution mapping to determine the difference in the age of introduction of infant formula, infant solids, whole cow's milk, eggs, peanut, and fish. Random forest analysis was used to determine the most important factors affecting the age of introduction for both populations. There was no statistically significant difference in the age of infant solid introduction, but urban populations introduced allergenic foods earlier than suburban populations, with a statistically significant difference in the age of introduction of infant formula, whole cow's milk, eggs, peanut, and fish. The most important factor for the timing of all food introductions was the recommended age of introduction from health care professionals. There is a difference between urban and suburban populations in the timing of introduction of allergenic foods but not in other infant solid foods. The reliance on physician recommendation for both populations supports the need for education and guidance to health care professionals on up-to-date guidance and recommendations. Copyright © 2016 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a dynamic framework to explain population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Garcia, Leandro M T; Diez Roux, Ana V; Martins, André C R; Yang, Yong; Florindo, Alex A

2017-08-22

Despite the increasing body of evidences on the factors influencing leisure-time physical activity, our understanding of the mechanisms and interactions that lead to the formation and evolution of population patterns is still limited. Moreover, most frameworks in this field fail to capture dynamic processes. Our aim was to create a dynamic conceptual model depicting the interaction between key psychological attributes of individuals and main aspects of the built and social environments in which they live. This conceptual model will inform and support the development of an agent-based model aimed to explore how population patterns of LTPA in adults may emerge from the dynamic interplay between psychological traits and built and social environments. We integrated existing theories and models as well as available empirical data (both from literature reviews), and expert opinions (based on a systematic expert assessment of an intermediary version of the model). The model explicitly presents intention as the proximal determinant of leisure-time physical activity, a relationship dynamically moderated by the built environment (access, quality, and available activities) - with the strength of the moderation varying as a function of the person's intention- and influenced both by the social environment (proximal network's and community's behavior) and the person's behavior. Our conceptual model is well supported by evidence and experts' opinions and will inform the design of our agent-based model, as well as data collection and analysis of future investigations on population patterns of leisure-time physical activity among adults.

The problem of estimating recent genetic connectivity in a changing world.

PubMed

Samarasin, Pasan; Shuter, Brian J; Wright, Stephen I; Rodd, F Helen

2017-02-01

Accurate understanding of population connectivity is important to conservation because dispersal can play an important role in population dynamics, microevolution, and assessments of extirpation risk and population rescue. Genetic methods are increasingly used to infer population connectivity because advances in technology have made them more advantageous (e.g., cost effective) relative to ecological methods. Given the reductions in wildlife population connectivity since the Industrial Revolution and more recent drastic reductions from habitat loss, it is important to know the accuracy of and biases in genetic connectivity estimators when connectivity has declined recently. Using simulated data, we investigated the accuracy and bias of 2 common estimators of migration (movement of individuals among populations) rate. We focused on the timing of the connectivity change and the magnitude of that change on the estimates of migration by using a coalescent-based method (Migrate-n) and a disequilibrium-based method (BayesAss). Contrary to expectations, when historically high connectivity had declined recently: (i) both methods over-estimated recent migration rates; (ii) the coalescent-based method (Migrate-n) provided better estimates of recent migration rate than the disequilibrium-based method (BayesAss); (iii) the coalescent-based method did not accurately reflect long-term genetic connectivity. Overall, our results highlight the problems with comparing coalescent and disequilibrium estimates to make inferences about the effects of recent landscape change on genetic connectivity among populations. We found that contrasting these 2 estimates to make inferences about genetic-connectivity changes over time could lead to inaccurate conclusions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Occupational risk and chronic kidney disease: a population-based study in the United States adult population.

PubMed

Rubinstein, Sofia; Wang, Chengwei; Qu, Wenchun

2013-01-01

Previous studies on occupational risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) have analyzed a limited range of occupations and focused on nephrotoxins. The primary purpose of this study was to examine the relative risk for the occurrence of CKD between different occupations in the US adult population. This was a population-based survey study of 91,340 participants in the US, who completed the National Health Interview Survey, 2004 through 2008. The outcome variable, CKD, was defined as having weakening/failing kidneys in the past 12 months, as diagnosed by a physician. The predictor variable, occupation, was obtained using the census occupational codes, regrouped according to North American Industrial Classification System. After controlling for age, gender, hypertension, and education, and with the category Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations as a reference group, the likelihood of developing CKD was 4.3 times higher in respondents working in Building, Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations, 4.4 times higher in Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations, 4.7 times higher in Transportation and Material Moving Occupations and in Computer and Mathematical Occupations, 4.8 times higher in Production Occupations, 5.3 times higher in Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations, and 6.1 times higher in Healthcare Support Occupations and in Legal Occupations. This study identified occupation groups in US adult population with increased risk for CKD. Alleviation of workplace stress is suggested as a goal for behavioral intervention in high-risk occupations.

Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies.

PubMed

Palacios, Julia A; Minin, Vladimir N

2013-03-01

Changes in population size influence genetic diversity of the population and, as a result, leave a signature of these changes in individual genomes in the population. We are interested in the inverse problem of reconstructing past population dynamics from genomic data. We start with a standard framework based on the coalescent, a stochastic process that generates genealogies connecting randomly sampled individuals from the population of interest. These genealogies serve as a glue between the population demographic history and genomic sequences. It turns out that only the times of genealogical lineage coalescences contain information about population size dynamics. Viewing these coalescent times as a point process, estimating population size trajectories is equivalent to estimating a conditional intensity of this point process. Therefore, our inverse problem is similar to estimating an inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity function. We demonstrate how recent advances in Gaussian process-based nonparametric inference for Poisson processes can be extended to Bayesian nonparametric estimation of population size dynamics under the coalescent. We compare our Gaussian process (GP) approach to one of the state-of-the-art Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) methods for estimating population trajectories. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that our method has better accuracy and precision. Next, we analyze two genealogies reconstructed from real sequences of hepatitis C and human Influenza A viruses. In both cases, we recover more believed aspects of the viral demographic histories than the GMRF approach. We also find that our GP method produces more reasonable uncertainty estimates than the GMRF method. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Cannibalism in discrete-time predator-prey systems.

PubMed

Chow, Yunshyong; Jang, Sophia R-J

2012-01-01

In this study, we propose and investigate a two-stage population model with cannibalism. It is shown that cannibalism can destabilize and lower the magnitude of the interior steady state. However, it is proved that cannibalism has no effect on the persistence of the population. Based on this model, we study two systems of predator-prey interactions where the prey population is cannibalistic. A sufficient condition based on the nontrivial boundary steady state for which both populations can coexist is derived. It is found via numerical simulations that introduction of the predator population may either stabilize or destabilize the prey dynamics, depending on cannibalism coefficients and other vital parameters.

Epidemic Process over the Commute Network in a Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Yashima, Kenta; Sasaki, Akira

2014-01-01

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival. PMID:24905831

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Time-frequency analysis of neuronal populations with instantaneous resolution based on noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition.

PubMed

Alegre-Cortés, J; Soto-Sánchez, C; Pizá, Á G; Albarracín, A L; Farfán, F D; Felice, C J; Fernández, E

2016-07-15

Linear analysis has classically provided powerful tools for understanding the behavior of neural populations, but the neuron responses to real-world stimulation are nonlinear under some conditions, and many neuronal components demonstrate strong nonlinear behavior. In spite of this, temporal and frequency dynamics of neural populations to sensory stimulation have been usually analyzed with linear approaches. In this paper, we propose the use of Noise-Assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition (NA-MEMD), a data-driven template-free algorithm, plus the Hilbert transform as a suitable tool for analyzing population oscillatory dynamics in a multi-dimensional space with instantaneous frequency (IF) resolution. The proposed approach was able to extract oscillatory information of neurophysiological data of deep vibrissal nerve and visual cortex multiunit recordings that were not evidenced using linear approaches with fixed bases such as the Fourier analysis. Texture discrimination analysis performance was increased when Noise-Assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode plus Hilbert transform was implemented, compared to linear techniques. Cortical oscillatory population activity was analyzed with precise time-frequency resolution. Similarly, NA-MEMD provided increased time-frequency resolution of cortical oscillatory population activity. Noise-Assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition plus Hilbert transform is an improved method to analyze neuronal population oscillatory dynamics overcoming linear and stationary assumptions of classical methods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Peters, Jeff

2015-01-01

Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been based on single hazard zones, even though a coastal community may be threatened by multiple tsunami sources that vary locally in terms of inundation extents and wave arrival times. We use the Alaskan coastal communities of Cordova, Kodiak, Seward, Valdez, and Whittier (USA), as a case study to explore population vulnerability to multiple tsunami threats. We use anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to assess variations in population exposure as a function of travel time out of hazard zones associated with tectonic and landslide-related tsunamis (based on scenarios similar to the 1964 M w9.2 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster). Results demonstrate that there are thousands of residents, employees, and business customers in tsunami hazard zones associated with tectonically generated waves, but that at-risk individuals will likely have sufficient time to evacuate to high ground before waves are estimated to arrive 30–60 min after generation. Tsunami hazard zones associated with submarine landslides initiated by a subduction zone earthquake are smaller and contain fewer people, but many at-risk individuals may not have enough time to evacuate as waves are estimated to arrive in 1–2 min and evacuations may need to occur during earthquake ground shaking. For all hazard zones, employees and customers at businesses far outnumber residents at their homes and evacuation travel times are highest on docks and along waterfronts. Results suggest that population vulnerability studies related to tsunami hazards should recognize non-residential populations and differences in wave arrival times if emergency managers are to develop realistic preparedness and outreach efforts.

Changes in population characteristics and their implication on public health research.

PubMed

Du, Ping; Coles, F Bruce; O'Campo, Patricia; McNutt, Louise-Anne

2007-07-10

Population estimates are generally drawn from one point in time to study disease trends over time; changes in population characteristics over time are usually not assessed and included in the study design. We evaluated whether population characteristics remained static and assessed the degree of population shifts over time. The analysis was based on the New York State 1990 and 2000 census data with adjustments for changes in geographic boundaries. Differences in census tract information were quantified by calculating the mean, median, standard deviation, and the percent of change for each population characteristic. Between 1990 and 2000, positive and negative fluctuations in population size created a U-shaped bimodal pattern of population change which increased the disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status for many census tracts. While 268 (10%) census tracts contracted by 10%, twice as many census tracts (21%, N = 557) grew at least 10%. Notably, the non-Hispanic African-American population grew 10% or more in 152 tracts. Although there were overall reductions in working class and undereducated populations and gains in incomes, most census tracts experienced growing income inequalities and an increased poverty rate. These changes were most pronounced in urban census tracts. Differences in population characteristics in a decade showed growing disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status. This study elucidates that important population shifts should be taken into account when conducting longitudinal research.

Changes in population characteristics and their implication on public health research

PubMed Central

Du, Ping; Coles, F Bruce; O'Campo, Patricia; McNutt, Louise-Anne

2007-01-01

Population estimates are generally drawn from one point in time to study disease trends over time; changes in population characteristics over time are usually not assessed and included in the study design. We evaluated whether population characteristics remained static and assessed the degree of population shifts over time. The analysis was based on the New York State 1990 and 2000 census data with adjustments for changes in geographic boundaries. Differences in census tract information were quantified by calculating the mean, median, standard deviation, and the percent of change for each population characteristic. Between 1990 and 2000, positive and negative fluctuations in population size created a U-shaped bimodal pattern of population change which increased the disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status for many census tracts. While 268 (10%) census tracts contracted by 10%, twice as many census tracts (21%, N = 557) grew at least 10%. Notably, the non-Hispanic African-American population grew 10% or more in 152 tracts. Although there were overall reductions in working class and undereducated populations and gains in incomes, most census tracts experienced growing income inequalities and an increased poverty rate. These changes were most pronounced in urban census tracts. Differences in population characteristics in a decade showed growing disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status. This study elucidates that important population shifts should be taken into account when conducting longitudinal research. PMID:17623097

[Spatial structure analysis and distribution simulation of Therioaphis trifolii population based on geostatistics and GIS].

PubMed

Zhang, Rong; Leng, Yun-fa; Zhu, Meng-meng; Wang, Fang

2007-11-01

Based on geographic information system and geostatistics, the spatial structure of Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods in Yuanzhou district of Guyuan City, the southern Ningxia Province, was analyzed. The spatial distribution of Therioaphis trifolii population was also simulated by ordinary Kriging interpretation. The results showed that Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods was correlated spatially in the study area. The semivariograms of Therioaphis trifolii could be described by exponential model, indicating an aggregated spatial arrangement. The spatial variance varied from 34.13%-48.77%, and the range varied from 8.751-12.049 km. The degree and direction of aggregation showed that the trend was increased gradually from southwest to northeast. The dynamic change of Therioaphis trifolii population in different periods could be analyzed intuitively on the simulated maps of the spatial distribution from the two aspects of time and space, The occurrence position and degree of Therioaphis trifolii to a state of certain time could be determined easily.

Stochastic foundations in nonlinear density-regulation growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Horsthemke, Werner; Campos, Daniel

2017-08-01

In this work we construct individual-based models that give rise to the generalized logistic model at the mean-field deterministic level and that allow us to interpret the parameters of these models in terms of individual interactions. We also study the effect of internal fluctuations on the long-time dynamics for the different models that have been widely used in the literature, such as the theta-logistic and Savageau models. In particular, we determine the conditions for population extinction and calculate the mean time to extinction. If the population does not become extinct, we obtain analytical expressions for the population abundance distribution. Our theoretical results are based on WKB theory and the probability generating function formalism and are verified by numerical simulations.

Terahertz Time Domain Spectroscopy of Phonon-Depopulation Based Quantum Cascade Lasers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rungsawang, R.; Dhillon, S. S.; Jukam, N.

2011-12-23

A 3.1 THz phonon depopulation-based quantum-cascade-laser is investigated using terahertz time domain spectroscopy. A gain of 25 cm{sup -1} and absorption features due to the lower laser level being populated from a parasitic electronic channel are highlighted.

The PEDA Model. An advocacy tool modeling the interrelationships between population, development, the environment and agriculture in Africa.

PubMed

1999-01-01

This article reports on the PEDA (population changes, environment, socioeconomic development and agriculture) model and its implication for policy-making in Africa. PEDA is an interactive computer simulation model (developed for a Windows environment) demonstrating the long-term impacts of alternative national policies on food security status of the population. The model is based on multistate demographic techniques, projecting at the same time 8 different subgroups (by age and sex) in the population, and based on 3 dichotomous individual characteristics: urban/rural place of residence; literacy status; and food security status. Through the manipulation of scenario variables, the model enables the user to project the proportion of the population that will be food secure and food insecure for a chosen point in time. This model developed by Dr. W. Lutz, Director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, will serve as an advocacy tool to help convince policy-makers and country experts in Africa of the negative synergy arising from the interconnections of population growth, environmental deterioration, and declining agricultural production.

Population Estimation in Singapore Based on Remote Sensing and Open Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, H.; Cao, K.; Wang, P.

2017-09-01

Population estimation statistics are widely used in government, commercial and educational sectors for a variety of purposes. With growing emphases on real-time and detailed population information, data users nowadays have switched from traditional census data to more technology-based data source such as LiDAR point cloud and High-Resolution Satellite Imagery. Nevertheless, such data are costly and periodically unavailable. In this paper, the authors use West Coast District, Singapore as a case study to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of using satellite image from Google Earth for extraction of building footprint and population estimation. At the same time, volunteered geographic information (VGI) is also utilized as ancillary data for building footprint extraction. Open data such as Open Street Map OSM could be employed to enhance the extraction process. In view of challenges in building shadow extraction, this paper discusses several methods including buffer, mask and shape index to improve accuracy. It also illustrates population estimation methods based on building height and number of floor estimates. The results show that the accuracy level of housing unit method on population estimation can reach 92.5 %, which is remarkably accurate. This paper thus provides insights into techniques for building extraction and fine-scale population estimation, which will benefit users such as urban planners in terms of policymaking and urban planning of Singapore.

Allee effect and the uncertainty of population recovery.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Keith, David M; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-06-01

Recovery of depleted populations is fundamentally important for conservation biology and sustainable resource harvesting. At low abundance, population growth rate, a primary determinant of population recovery, is generally assumed to be relatively fast because competition is low (i.e., negative density dependence). But population growth can be limited in small populations by an Allee effect. This is particularly relevant for collapsed populations or species that have not recovered despite large reductions in, or elimination of, threats. We investigated how an Allee effect can influence the dynamics of recovery. We used Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as the study organism and an empirically quantified Allee effect for the species to parameterize our simulations. We simulated recovery through an individual-based mechanistic simulation model and then compared recovery among scenarios incorporating an Allee effect, negative density dependence, and an intermediate scenario. Although an Allee effect significantly slowed recovery, such that population increase could be negligible even after 100 years or more, it also made the time required for biomass rebuilding much less predictable. Our finding that an Allee effect greatly increased the uncertainty in recovery time frames provides an empirically based explanation for why the removal of threat does not always result in the recovery of depleted populations or species. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Integrating population health into a family medicine clerkship: 7 years of evolution.

PubMed

Unverzagt, Mark; Wallerstein, Nina; Benson, Jeffrey A; Tomedi, Angelo; Palley, Toby B

2003-01-01

A population health curriculum using methodologies from community-oriented primary care (COPC) was developed in 1994 as part of a required third-year family medicine clerkship at the University of New Mexico. The curriculum integrates population health/community medicine projects and problem-based tutorials into a community-based, ambulatory clinical experience. By combining a required population health experience with relevant clinical training, student careers have the opportunity to be influenced during the critical third year. Results over a 7-year period describe a three-phase evolution of the curriculum, within the context of changes in medical education and in health care delivery systems in that same period of time. Early evaluation revealed that students viewed the curricular experience as time consuming and peripheral to their training. Later comments on the revised curriculum showed a higher regard for the experience that was described as important for student learning.

[WebSurvCa: web-based estimation of death and survival probabilities in a cohort].

PubMed

Clèries, Ramon; Ameijide, Alberto; Buxó, Maria; Vilardell, Mireia; Martínez, José Miguel; Alarcón, Francisco; Cordero, David; Díez-Villanueva, Ana; Yasui, Yutaka; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Vilardell, Maria Loreto; Carulla, Marià; Galceran, Jaume; Izquierdo, Ángel; Moreno, Víctor; Borràs, Josep M

2018-01-19

Relative survival has been used as a measure of the temporal evolution of the excess risk of death of a cohort of patients diagnosed with cancer, taking into account the mortality of a reference population. Once the excess risk of death has been estimated, three probabilities can be computed at time T: 1) the crude probability of death associated with the cause of initial diagnosis (disease under study), 2) the crude probability of death associated with other causes, and 3) the probability of absolute survival in the cohort at time T. This paper presents the WebSurvCa application (https://shiny.snpstats.net/WebSurvCa/), whereby hospital-based and population-based cancer registries and registries of other diseases can estimate such probabilities in their cohorts by selecting the mortality of the relevant region (reference population). Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

We present a study, based on simulations with SERDYCA, a spatially-explicit individual-based model of rodent dynamics, on the relation between population persistence and the presence of numerous isolated disturbances in the habitat. We are specifically interested in the effect of disturbances that do not fragment the environment on population persistence. Our results suggest that the presence of disturbances in the absence of fragmentation can actually increase the average time to extinction of the modeled population. The presence of disturbances decreases population density but can increase the chance for mating in monogamous species and consequently, the ratio of juveniles in themore » population. It thus provides a better chance for the population to restore itself after a severe period with critically low population density. We call this the ''disturbance-forced localization effect''.« less

Influence of salinomycin treatment on division and movement of individual cancer cells cultured in normoxia or hypoxia evaluated with time-lapse digital holographic microscopy

PubMed Central

Kamlund, Sofia; Strand, Daniel; Janicke, Birgit; Alm, Kersti; Oredsson, Stina

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Most studies on new cancer drugs are based on population-derived data, where the absence of response of a small population may pass unnoticed. Thus, individual longitudinal tracking of cells is important for the future development of efficient cancer treatments. We have used digital holographic microscopy to track individual JIMT-1 human breast cancer cells and L929 mouse fibroblast cultivated in normoxia or hypoxia. In addition, JIMT-1 cells were treated with salinomycin, a cancer stem cell targeting compound. Three-day time-lapse movies were captured and individual cells were analysed with respect to cell division (cell cycle length) and cell movement. Comparing population-doubling time derived from population-based growth curves and individual cell cycle time data from time-lapse movies show that the former hide a sub-population of dividing cells. Salinomycin treatment increased the motility of cells, however, this motility did not result in an increased distant migration i.e. the cells increased their local movement. MCF-7 breast cancer cells showed similar motility behaviour as salinomycin-treated JIMT-1 cells. We suggest that combining features, such as motility and migration, can be used to distinguish cancer cells with mesenchymal (JIMT-1) and epithelial (MCF-7) features. The data clearly emphasize the importance of longitudinal cell tracking to understand the biology of individual cells under different conditions. PMID:28933990

PM2.5 Population Exposure in New Delhi Using a Probabilistic Simulation Framework.

PubMed

Saraswat, Arvind; Kandlikar, Milind; Brauer, Michael; Srivastava, Arun

2016-03-15

This paper presents a Geographical Information System (GIS) based probabilistic simulation framework to estimate PM2.5 population exposure in New Delhi, India. The framework integrates PM2.5 output from spatiotemporal LUR models and trip distribution data using a Gravity model based on zonal data for population, employment and enrollment in educational institutions. Time-activity patterns were derived from a survey of randomly sampled individuals (n = 1012) and in-vehicle exposure was estimated using microenvironmental monitoring data based on field measurements. We simulated population exposure for three different scenarios to capture stay-at-home populations (Scenario 1), working population exposed to near-road concentrations during commutes (Scenario 2), and the working population exposed to on-road concentrations during commutes (Scenario 3). Simulated annual average levels of PM2.5 exposure across the entire city were very high, and particularly severe in the winter months: ∼200 μg m(-3) in November, roughly four times higher compared to the lower levels in the monsoon season. Mean annual exposures ranged from 109 μg m(-3) (IQR: 97-120 μg m(-3)) for Scenario 1, to 121 μg m(-3) (IQR: 110-131 μg m(-3)), and 125 μg m(-3) (IQR: 114-136 μ gm(-3)) for Scenarios 2 and 3 respectively. Ignoring the effects of mobility causes the average annual PM2.5 population exposure to be underestimated by only 11%.

School Dropout Prevention: What Arts-Based Community and Out-of-School-Time Programs Can Contribute

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charmaraman, Linda; Hall, Georgia

2011-01-01

Out-of-school-time programs, especially arts-based programs, can be critical players in a community's efforts to prevent school dropout. This research review suggests the following approaches for arts-based programs: (1) recruitment and retention of target populations with multiple risk factors; (2) long-term skill development that engages youth…

The Influence of Physical Activity, Sport and Exercise Motives among UK-Based University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Simon; Reeves, Matthew; Ryrie, Angus

2015-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that the majority of the adult population fails to achieve the recommended target of 30-minutes moderate intensity exercise, days a week. This includes university students who often have the time to engage in physical activity. The aim of this study was to determine exercise motives for a UK-based student population. The…

Methods of Suicide among Cancer Patients: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Kuo-Hsuan; Lin, Herng-Ching

2010-01-01

A 3-year nationwide population-based data set was used to explore methods of suicide (violent vs. nonviolent) and possible contributing factors among cancer patients in Taiwan. A total of 1,065 cancer inpatients who committed suicide were included as our study sample. The regression shows that those who had genitourinary cancer were 0.55 times (p…

Measuring geographic access to health care: raster and network-based methods

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Inequalities in geographic access to health care result from the configuration of facilities, population distribution, and the transportation infrastructure. In recent accessibility studies, the traditional distance measure (Euclidean) has been replaced with more plausible measures such as travel distance or time. Both network and raster-based methods are often utilized for estimating travel time in a Geographic Information System. Therefore, exploring the differences in the underlying data models and associated methods and their impact on geographic accessibility estimates is warranted. Methods We examine the assumptions present in population-based travel time models. Conceptual and practical differences between raster and network data models are reviewed, along with methodological implications for service area estimates. Our case study investigates Limited Access Areas defined by Michigan’s Certificate of Need (CON) Program. Geographic accessibility is calculated by identifying the number of people residing more than 30 minutes from an acute care hospital. Both network and raster-based methods are implemented and their results are compared. We also examine sensitivity to changes in travel speed settings and population assignment. Results In both methods, the areas identified as having limited accessibility were similar in their location, configuration, and shape. However, the number of people identified as having limited accessibility varied substantially between methods. Over all permutations, the raster-based method identified more area and people with limited accessibility. The raster-based method was more sensitive to travel speed settings, while the network-based method was more sensitive to the specific population assignment method employed in Michigan. Conclusions Differences between the underlying data models help to explain the variation in results between raster and network-based methods. Considering that the choice of data model/method may substantially alter the outcomes of a geographic accessibility analysis, we advise researchers to use caution in model selection. For policy, we recommend that Michigan adopt the network-based method or reevaluate the travel speed assignment rule in the raster-based method. Additionally, we recommend that the state revisit the population assignment method. PMID:22587023

The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

2003-11-21

We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in themore » literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.« less

A Personalized Predictive Framework for Multivariate Clinical Time Series via Adaptive Model Selection.

PubMed

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2017-11-01

Building of an accurate predictive model of clinical time series for a patient is critical for understanding of the patient condition, its dynamics, and optimal patient management. Unfortunately, this process is not straightforward. First, patient-specific variations are typically large and population-based models derived or learned from many different patients are often unable to support accurate predictions for each individual patient. Moreover, time series observed for one patient at any point in time may be too short and insufficient to learn a high-quality patient-specific model just from the patient's own data. To address these problems we propose, develop and experiment with a new adaptive forecasting framework for building multivariate clinical time series models for a patient and for supporting patient-specific predictions. The framework relies on the adaptive model switching approach that at any point in time selects the most promising time series model out of the pool of many possible models, and consequently, combines advantages of the population, patient-specific and short-term individualized predictive models. We demonstrate that the adaptive model switching framework is very promising approach to support personalized time series prediction, and that it is able to outperform predictions based on pure population and patient-specific models, as well as, other patient-specific model adaptation strategies.

Comparison of clinical and analytical performance of the Abbott Realtime High Risk HPV test to the performance of hybrid capture 2 in population-based cervical cancer screening.

PubMed

Poljak, Mario; Ostrbenk, Anja; Seme, Katja; Ucakar, Veronika; Hillemanns, Peter; Bokal, Eda Vrtacnik; Jancar, Nina; Klavs, Irena

2011-05-01

The clinical performance of the Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV (human papillomavirus) test (RealTime) and that of the Hybrid Capture 2 HPV DNA test (hc2) were prospectively compared in the population-based cervical cancer screening setting. In women >30 years old (n = 3,129), the clinical sensitivity of RealTime for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 (CIN2) or worse (38 cases) and its clinical specificity for lesions of less than CIN2 (3,091 controls) were 100% and 93.3%, respectively, and those of hc2 were 97.4% and 91.8%, respectively. A noninferiority score test showed that the clinical specificity (P < 0.0001) and clinical sensitivity (P = 0.011) of RealTime were noninferior to those of hc2 at the recommended thresholds of 98% and 90%. In the total study population (women 20 to 64 years old; n = 4,432; 57 cases, 4,375 controls), the clinical sensitivity and specificity of RealTime were 98.2% and 89.5%, and those of hc2 were 94.7% and 87.7%, respectively. The analytical sensitivity and analytical specificity of RealTime in detecting targeted HPV types evaluated with the largest sample collection to date (4,479 samples) were 94.8% and 99.8%, and those of hc2 were 93.4% and 97.8%, respectively. Excellent analytical agreement between the two assays was obtained (kappa value, 0.84), while the analytical accuracy of RealTime was significantly higher than that of hc2. RealTime demonstrated high intralaboratory reproducibility and interlaboratory agreement with 500 samples retested 61 to 226 days after initial testing in two different laboratories. RealTime can be considered to be a reliable and robust HPV assay clinically comparable to hc2 for the detection of CIN2+ lesions in a population-based cervical cancer screening setting.

A new method for studying population genetics of cyst nematodes based on Pool-Seq and genomewide allele frequency analysis.

PubMed

Mimee, Benjamin; Duceppe, Marc-Olivier; Véronneau, Pierre-Yves; Lafond-Lapalme, Joël; Jean, Martine; Belzile, François; Bélair, Guy

2015-11-01

Cyst nematodes are important agricultural pests responsible for billions of dollars of losses each year. Plant resistance is the most effective management tool, but it requires a close monitoring of population genetics. Current technologies for pathotyping and genotyping cyst nematodes are time-consuming, expensive and imprecise. In this study, we capitalized on the reproduction mode of cyst nematodes to develop a simple population genetic analysis pipeline based on genotyping-by-sequencing and Pool-Seq. This method yielded thousands of SNPs and allowed us to study the relationships between populations of different origins or pathotypes. Validation of the method on well-characterized populations also demonstrated that it was a powerful and accurate tool for population genetics. The genomewide allele frequencies of 23 populations of golden nematode, from nine countries and representing the five known pathotypes, were compared. A clear separation of the pathotypes and fine genetic relationships between and among global populations were obtained using this method. In addition to being powerful, this tool has proven to be very time- and cost-efficient and could be applied to other cyst nematode species. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Molecular Ecology Resources © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-food.

Genetics of the Shimokita macaque population suggest an ancient bottleneck.

PubMed

Kawamoto, Yoshi; Tomari, Ken-ichiro; Kawai, Shizuka; Kawamoto, Sakie

2008-01-01

The macaque population of the Shimokita Peninsula represents the northernmost distribution of this species and is isolated from other populations in the Tohoku region of Japan. A previous protein-based study revealed a high level of genetic variability in this population and considerable differentiation from other populations. In order to reassess the genetic features of the Shimokita macaques, we examined 11 autosomal microsatellite loci and three Y chromosomal microsatellite loci. We observed considerable differentiation from other Japanese populations of macaques, but in contrast to the previous results, we observed significantly lower genetic variability in this population. There was a weak indication of a population bottleneck, suggesting a decay over time from an excess of heterozygotes that might be expected in the initial stages of a bottleneck. This may indicate that an ancient bottleneck occurred during the warm period after the last glacial period rather than a recent bottleneck due to hunting in modern times. The frequencies of private alleles were exceptionally high in the Shimokita population, suggesting that the difference in variability as determined in various studies was due to accidental sampling of marker loci with low power to resolve genetic variations in the protein-based studies. The assessments of interpopulation differentiation as determined using autosomal and Y chromosomal markers were highly correlated, and using both types of markers the Shimokita population was found to be the most differentiated of the study populations, probably due to infrequent gene flow with surrounding populations.

75 FR 34462 - Center for Scientific Review; Notice of Closed Meetings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-17

...: Technology-Based Adherence Interventions for Substance Abusing Populations with HIV (R34). Date: July 9, 2010...: Social Science and Population Studies. Date: July 14, 2010. Time: 1 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. Agenda: To review...

Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

2015-04-01

Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric cartography. This work was supported by the FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology.

Parameter estimation methods for gene circuit modeling from time-series mRNA data: a comparative study.

PubMed

Fan, Ming; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Wang, Xiaolei; Wang, Suojin; Gao, Xin

2015-11-01

Parameter estimation is a challenging computational problem in the reverse engineering of biological systems. Because advances in biotechnology have facilitated wide availability of time-series gene expression data, systematic parameter estimation of gene circuit models from such time-series mRNA data has become an important method for quantitatively dissecting the regulation of gene expression. By focusing on the modeling of gene circuits, we examine here the performance of three types of state-of-the-art parameter estimation methods: population-based methods, online methods and model-decomposition-based methods. Our results show that certain population-based methods are able to generate high-quality parameter solutions. The performance of these methods, however, is heavily dependent on the size of the parameter search space, and their computational requirements substantially increase as the size of the search space increases. In comparison, online methods and model decomposition-based methods are computationally faster alternatives and are less dependent on the size of the search space. Among other things, our results show that a hybrid approach that augments computationally fast methods with local search as a subsequent refinement procedure can substantially increase the quality of their parameter estimates to the level on par with the best solution obtained from the population-based methods while maintaining high computational speed. These suggest that such hybrid methods can be a promising alternative to the more commonly used population-based methods for parameter estimation of gene circuit models when limited prior knowledge about the underlying regulatory mechanisms makes the size of the parameter search space vastly large. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Using information and communications technology in a national population-based survey: the Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey 2012.

PubMed

Ojwang', James K; Lee, Veronica C; Waruru, Anthony; Ssempijja, Victor; Ng'ang'a, John G; Wakhutu, Brian E; Kandege, Nicholas O; Koske, Danson K; Kamiru, Samuel M; Omondi, Kenneth O; Kakinyi, Mutua; Kim, Andrea A; Oluoch, Tom

2014-05-01

With improvements in technology, electronic data capture (EDC) for large surveys is feasible. EDC offers benefits over traditional paper-based data collection, including more accurate data, greater completeness of data, and decreased data cleaning burden. The second Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS 2012) was a population-based survey of persons aged 18 months to 64 years. A software application was designed to capture the interview, specimen collection, and home-based testing and counseling data. The application included: interview translations for local languages; options for single, multiple, and fill-in responses; and automated participant eligibility determination. Data quality checks were programmed to automate skip patterns and prohibit outlier responses. A data sharing architecture was developed to transmit the data in real-time from the field to a central server over a virtual private network. KAIS 2012 was conducted between October 2012 and February 2013. Overall, 68,202 records for the interviews, specimen collection, and home-based testing and counseling were entered into the application. Challenges arose during implementation, including poor connectivity and a systems malfunction that created duplicate records, which prevented timely data transmission to the central server. Data cleaning was minimal given the data quality control measures. KAIS 2012 demonstrated the feasibility of using EDC in a population-based survey. The benefits of EDC were apparent in data quality and minimal time needed for data cleaning. Several important lessons were learned, such as the time and monetary investment required before survey implementation, the importance of continuous application testing, and contingency plans for data transmission due to connectivity challenges.

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size

PubMed Central

Ragsdale, Alexandria K.; McCoy, Earl D.; Mushinsky, Henry R.

2016-01-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. PMID:26976940

Phase coupling and synchrony in the spatiotemporal dynamics of muskrat and mink populations across Canada

PubMed Central

Haydon, D. T.; Stenseth, N. C.; Boyce, M. S.; Greenwood, P. E.

2001-01-01

Population ecologists have traditionally focused on the patterns and causes of population variation in the temporal domain for which a substantial body of practical analytic techniques have been developed. More recently, numerous studies have documented how populations may fluctuate synchronously over large spatial areas; analyses of such spatially extended time-series have started to provide additional clues regarding the causes of these population fluctuations and explanations for their synchronous occurrence. Here, we report on the development of a phase-based method for identifying coupling between temporally coincident but spatially distributed cyclic time-series, which we apply to the numbers of muskrat and mink recorded at 81 locations across Canada. The analysis reveals remarkable parallel clines in the strength of coupling between proximate populations of both species—declining from west to east—together with a corresponding increase in observed synchrony between these populations the further east they are located. PMID:11606729

Urbanization shapes the demographic history of a native rodent (the white-footed mouse, Peromyscus leucopus) in New York City.

PubMed

Harris, Stephen E; Xue, Alexander T; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego; Boehm, Joel T; Joseph, Tyler; Hickerson, Michael J; Munshi-South, Jason

2016-04-01

How urbanization shapes population genomic diversity and evolution of urban wildlife is largely unexplored. We investigated the impact of urbanization on white-footed mice,Peromyscus leucopus,in the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area using coalescent-based simulations to infer demographic history from the site-frequency spectrum. We assigned individuals to evolutionary clusters and then inferred recent divergence times, population size changes and migration using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms genotyped in 23 populations sampled along an urban-to-rural gradient. Both prehistoric climatic events and recent urbanization impacted these populations. Our modelling indicates that post-glacial sea-level rise led to isolation of mainland and Long Island populations. These models also indicate that several urban parks represent recently isolated P. leucopus populations, and the estimated divergence times for these populations are consistent with the history of urbanization in NYC. © 2016 The Author(s).

Gradient-free MCMC methods for dynamic causal modelling

DOE PAGES

Sengupta, Biswa; Friston, Karl J.; Penny, Will D.

2015-03-14

Here, we compare the performance of four gradient-free MCMC samplers (random walk Metropolis sampling, slice-sampling, adaptive MCMC sampling and population-based MCMC sampling with tempering) in terms of the number of independent samples they can produce per unit computational time. For the Bayesian inversion of a single-node neural mass model, both adaptive and population-based samplers are more efficient compared with random walk Metropolis sampler or slice-sampling; yet adaptive MCMC sampling is more promising in terms of compute time. Slice-sampling yields the highest number of independent samples from the target density -- albeit at almost 1000% increase in computational time, in comparisonmore » to the most efficient algorithm (i.e., the adaptive MCMC sampler).« less

Climatic Factors Drive Population Divergence and Demography: Insights Based on the Phylogeography of a Riparian Plant Species Endemic to the Hengduan Mountains and Adjacent Regions.

PubMed

Wang, Zhi-Wei; Chen, Shao-Tian; Nie, Ze-Long; Zhang, Jian-Wen; Zhou, Zhuo; Deng, Tao; Sun, Hang

2015-01-01

Quaternary climatic factors have played a significant role in population divergence and demography. Here we investigated the phylogeography of Osteomeles schwerinae, a dominant riparian plant species of the hot/warm-dry river valleys of the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), Qinling Mountains (QLM) and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (YGP). Three chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) regions (trnD-trnT, psbD-trnT, petL-psbE), one single copy nuclear gene (glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase; G3pdh), and climatic data during the Last Interglacial (LIG; c. 120-140 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; c. 21 ka), and Current (c. 1950-2000) periods were used in this study. Six cpDNA haplotypes and 15 nuclear DNA (nDNA) haplotypes were identified in the 40 populations of O. schwerinae. Spatial Analysis of Molecular Variance, median-joining networks, and Bayesian phylogenetic trees based on the cpDNA and nDNA datasets, all suggested population divergence between the QLM and HDM-YGP regions. Our climatic analysis identified significant heterogeneity of the climatic factors in the QLM and HDM-YGP regions during the aforementioned three periods. The divergence times based on cpDNA and nDNA haplotypes were estimated to be 466.4-159.4 ka and 315.8-160.3 ka, respectively, which coincide with the time of the weakening of the Asian monsoons in these regions. In addition, unimodal pairwise mismatch distribution curves, expansion times, and Ecological Niche Modeling suggested a history of population expansion (rather than contraction) during the last glaciation. Interestingly, the expansion times were found being well consistent with the intensification of the Asian monsoons during this period. We inferred that the divergence between the two main lineages is probably caused by disruption of more continuous distribution because of weakening of monsoons/less precipitation, whilst subsequent intensification of the Asian monsoons during the last glaciation facilitated the expansion of O. schwerinae populations.

Distribution of correlated spiking events in a population-based approach for Integrate-and-Fire networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiwei; Newhall, Katherine; Zhou, Douglas; Rangan, Aaditya

2014-04-01

Randomly connected populations of spiking neurons display a rich variety of dynamics. However, much of the current modeling and theoretical work has focused on two dynamical extremes: on one hand homogeneous dynamics characterized by weak correlations between neurons, and on the other hand total synchrony characterized by large populations firing in unison. In this paper we address the conceptual issue of how to mathematically characterize the partially synchronous "multiple firing events" (MFEs) which manifest in between these two dynamical extremes. We further develop a geometric method for obtaining the distribution of magnitudes of these MFEs by recasting the cascading firing event process as a first-passage time problem, and deriving an analytical approximation of the first passage time density valid for large neuron populations. Thus, we establish a direct link between the voltage distributions of excitatory and inhibitory neurons and the number of neurons firing in an MFE that can be easily integrated into population-based computational methods, thereby bridging the gap between homogeneous firing regimes and total synchrony.

Dilution as a Model of Long-Term Forgetting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lansdale, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2008-01-01

This article presents a model of long term forgetting based on 3 ideas: (a) Memory for a stimulus can be described by a population of accessible traces; (b) probability of retrieval after a delay is predicted by the proportion of traces in this population that will be defined as correct if sampled; and (c) this population is diluted over time by…

Seasonal Differences in Determinants of Time Location Patterns in an Urban Population: A Large Population-Based Study in Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Sewon; Lee, Kiyoung

2017-06-22

Time location patterns are a significant factor for exposure assessment models of air pollutants. Factors associated with time location patterns in urban populations are typically due to high air pollution levels in urban areas. The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal differences in time location patterns in two urban cities. A Time Use Survey of Korean Statistics (KOSTAT) was conducted in the summer, fall, and winter of 2014. Time location data from Seoul and Busan were collected, together with demographic information obtained by diaries and questionnaires. Determinants of the time spent at each location were analyzed by multiple linear regression and the stepwise method. Seoul and Busan participants had similar time location profiles over the three seasons. The time spent at own home, other locations, workplace/school and during walk were similar over the three seasons in both the Seoul and Busan participants. The most significant time location pattern factors were employment status, age, gender, monthly income, and spouse. Season affected the time spent at the workplace/school and other locations in the Seoul participants, but not in the Busan participants. The seasons affected each time location pattern of the urban population slightly differently, but overall there were few differences.

Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: A prospective study from 1964 to 2014.

PubMed

Suárez-Medina, Ramón; Venero-Fernández, Silvia Josefina; Britton, John; Fogarty, Andrew W

2016-09-01

The increase in prevalence of obesity is a possible risk factor for asthma in developed countries. As the people of Cuba experienced an acute population-based decrease in weight in the 1990s, we tested the hypothesis that national weight loss and subsequent weight gain was associated a reciprocal changes in asthma mortality. Data were obtained on mortality rates from asthma and COPD in Cuba from 1964 to 2014, along with data on prevalence of obesity for this period. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify inflexion points in the data. Although the prevalence of obesity from 1990 to 1995 decreased from 14% to 7%, over the same time period the rate of asthma mortality increased from 4.5 deaths per 100,000 population to 5.4 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2010, the obesity prevalence subsequently increased to 15% in 2010, while the asthma mortality rate dropped to 2.3 deaths per 100,000 population. The optimal model for fit of asthma mortality over time gave an increasing linear association from 1964 to 1995 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1993 to 1997), followed by a decrease in asthma mortality rates from 1995 to 1999 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1997 to 2002). These national data do not support the hypothesis that population-based changes in weight are associated with asthma mortality. Other possible explanations for the large decreases in asthma mortality rates include changes in pollution or better delivery of medical care over the same time period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in population evacuation potential for tsunami hazards in Seward, Alaska, since the 1964 Good Friday earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Peters, Jeff

2014-01-01

Pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards typically focuses on current land-cover conditions and population distributions. To examine how post-disaster redevelopment may influence the evacuation potential of at-risk populations to future threats, we modeled pedestrian travel times to safety in Seward, Alaska, based on conditions before the 1964 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster and on modern conditions. Anisotropic, path distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety during the 1964 event and in modern Seward, and results are merged with various population data, including the location and number of residents, employees, public venues, and dependent care facilities. Results suggest that modeled travel time estimates conform well to the fatality patterns of the 1964 event and that evacuation travel times have increased in modern Seward due to the relocation and expansion of port and harbor facilities after the disaster. The majority of individuals threatened by tsunamis today in Seward are employee, customer, and tourist populations, rather than residents in their homes. Modern evacuation travel times to safety for the majority of the region are less than wave arrival times for future tectonic tsunamis but greater than arrival times for landslide-related tsunamis. Evacuation travel times will likely be higher in the winter time, when the presence of snow may constrain evacuations to roads.

Waiting time disparities in breast cancer diagnosis and treatment: a population-based study in France.

PubMed

Molinié, F; Leux, C; Delafosse, P; Ayrault-Piault, S; Arveux, P; Woronoff, A S; Guizard, A V; Velten, M; Ganry, O; Bara, S; Daubisse-Marliac, L; Tretarre, B

2013-10-01

Waiting times are key indicators of a health's system performance, but are not routinely available in France. We studied waiting times for diagnosis and treatment according to patients' characteristics, tumours' characteristics and medical management options in a sample of 1494 breast cancers recorded in population-based registries. The median waiting time from the first imaging detection to the treatment initiation was 34 days. Older age, co-morbidity, smaller size of tumour, detection by organised screening, biopsy, increasing number of specimens removed, multidisciplinary consulting meetings and surgery as initial treatment were related to increased waiting times in multivariate models. Many of these factors were related to good practices guidelines. However, the strong influence of organised screening programme and the disparity of waiting times according to geographical areas were of concern. Better scheduling of diagnostic tests and treatment propositions should improve waiting times in the management of breast cancer in France. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Genomic Ancestry of North Africans Supports Back-to-Africa Migrations

PubMed Central

Gravel, Simon; Wang, Wei; Brisbin, Abra; Byrnes, Jake K.; Fadhlaoui-Zid, Karima; Zalloua, Pierre A.; Moreno-Estrada, Andres; Bertranpetit, Jaume; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Comas, David

2012-01-01

North African populations are distinct from sub-Saharan Africans based on cultural, linguistic, and phenotypic attributes; however, the time and the extent of genetic divergence between populations north and south of the Sahara remain poorly understood. Here, we interrogate the multilayered history of North Africa by characterizing the effect of hypothesized migrations from the Near East, Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa on current genetic diversity. We present dense, genome-wide SNP genotyping array data (730,000 sites) from seven North African populations, spanning from Egypt to Morocco, and one Spanish population. We identify a gradient of likely autochthonous Maghrebi ancestry that increases from east to west across northern Africa; this ancestry is likely derived from “back-to-Africa” gene flow more than 12,000 years ago (ya), prior to the Holocene. The indigenous North African ancestry is more frequent in populations with historical Berber ethnicity. In most North African populations we also see substantial shared ancestry with the Near East, and to a lesser extent sub-Saharan Africa and Europe. To estimate the time of migration from sub-Saharan populations into North Africa, we implement a maximum likelihood dating method based on the distribution of migrant tracts. In order to first identify migrant tracts, we assign local ancestry to haplotypes using a novel, principal component-based analysis of three ancestral populations. We estimate that a migration of western African origin into Morocco began about 40 generations ago (approximately 1,200 ya); a migration of individuals with Nilotic ancestry into Egypt occurred about 25 generations ago (approximately 750 ya). Our genomic data reveal an extraordinarily complex history of migrations, involving at least five ancestral populations, into North Africa. PMID:22253600

The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

PubMed

Jian, Yun; Silvestri, Sonia; Brown, Jeff; Hickman, Rick; Marani, Marco

2014-01-01

An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks) are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month) observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month) environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual) mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the abundance of the underlying population.

Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmkuhl, John F.

1984-03-01

The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

Measurements of population densities of metastable and resonant levels of argon using laser induced fluorescence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nikolić, M.; Newton, J.; Sukenik, C. I.

2015-01-14

We present a new approach to measure population densities of Ar I metastable and resonant excited states in low temperature Ar plasmas at pressures higher than 1 Torr. This approach combines the time resolved laser induced fluorescence technique with the kinetic model of Ar. The kinetic model of Ar is based on calculating the population rates of metastable and resonant levels by including contributions from the processes that affect population densities of Ar I excited states. In particular, we included collisional quenching processes between atoms in the ground state and excited states, since we are investigating plasma at higher pressures. Wemore » also determined time resolved population densities of Ar I 2 p excited states by employing optical emission spectroscopy technique. Time resolved Ar I excited state populations are presented for the case of the post-discharge of the supersonic flowing microwave discharge at pressures of 1.7 and 2.3 Torr. The experimental set-up consists of a pulsed tunable dye laser operating in the near infrared region and a cylindrical resonance cavity operating in TE{sub 111} mode at 2.45 GHz. Results show that time resolved population densities of Ar I metastable and resonant states oscillate with twice the frequency of the discharge.« less

Evaluating the Human Damage of Tsunami at Each Time Frame in Aggregate Units Based on GPS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Y.; Akiyama, Y.; Kanasugi, H.; Shibasaki, R.; Kaneda, H.

2016-06-01

Assessments of the human damage caused by the tsunami are required in order to consider disaster prevention at such a regional level. Hence, there is an increasing need for the assessments of human damage caused by earthquakes. However, damage assessments in japan currently usually rely on static population distribution data, such as statistical night time population data obtained from national census surveys. Therefore, human damage estimation that take into consideration time frames have not been assessed yet. With these backgrounds, the objectives of this study are: to develop a method for estimating the population distribution of the for each time frame, based on location positioning data observed with mass GPS loggers of mobile phones, to use a evacuation and casualties models for evaluating human damage due to the tsunami, and evaluate each time frame by using the data developed in the first objective, and 3) to discuss the factors which cause the differences in human damage for each time frame. By visualizing the results, we clarified the differences in damage depending on time frame, day and area. As this study enables us to assess damage for any time frame in and high resolution, it will be useful to consider provision for various situations when an earthquake may hit, such as during commuting hours or working hours and week day or holiday.

The association between ALS and population density: A population based study.

PubMed

Scott, Kirsten M; Abhinav, Kumar; Wijesekera, Lokesh; Ganesalingam, Jeban; Goldstein, Laura H; Janssen, Anna; Dougherty, Andrew; Willey, Emma; Stanton, Biba R; Turner, Martin R; Ampong, Mary-Ann; Sakel, Mohammed; Orrell, Richard; Howard, Robin; Shaw, Christopher E; Nigel Leigh, P; Al-Chalabi, Ammar

2010-10-01

We aimed to assess whether rural residence is associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the south-east of England using a population based register. Previous studies in different populations have produced contradictory findings. Residence defined by London borough or non-metropolitan district at time of diagnosis was recorded for each incident case in the South-East England ALS Register between 1995 and 2005. Each of the 26 boroughs or districts of the catchment area of the register was classified according to population density. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence of ALS was calculated for each region and the relationship with population density tested by linear regression, thereby controlling for the underlying population structure. We found that population density in region of residence at diagnosis explained 25% of the variance in ALS rates (r = 0.5, p < 0.01). Thus, in this cohort in the south-east of England, people with ALS were more likely to be resident in areas of high population density at diagnosis.

The association between ALS and population density: A population based study

PubMed Central

SCOTT, KIRSTEN M.; ABHINAV, KUMAR; WIJESEKERA, LOKESH; GANESALINGAM, JEBAN; GOLDSTEIN, LAURA H.; JANSSEN, ANNA; DOUGHERTY, ANDREW; WILLEY, EMMA; STANTON, BIBA R.; TURNER, MARTIN R.; AMPONG, MARY-ANN; SAKEL, MOHAMMED; ORRELL, RICHARD; HOWARD, ROBIN; SHAW, CHRISTOPHER E.; LEIGH, P. NIGEL; AL-CHALABI, AMMAR

2011-01-01

We aimed to assess whether rural residence is associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the south-east of England using a population based register. Previous studies in different populations have produced contradictory findings. Residence defined by London borough or non-metropolitan district at time of diagnosis was recorded for each incident case in the South-East England ALS Register between 1995 and 2005. Each of the 26 boroughs or districts of the catchment area of the register was classified according to population density. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence of ALS was calculated for each region and the relationship with population density tested by linear regression, thereby controlling for the underlying population structure. We found that population density in region of residence at diagnosis explained 25% of the variance in ALS rates (r = 0.5, p < 0.01). Thus, in this cohort in the south-east of England, people with ALS were more likely to be resident in areas of high population density at diagnosis. PMID:20429684

SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DATA USED FOR IDENTIFYING ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Due to unique social and demographic characteristics, various segments of the population may experience exposures different from those of the general population, which, in many cases, may be greater. When risk assessments do not characterize subsets of the general population, the populations that may experience the greatest risk remain unidentified. When such populations are not identified, the social and demographic data relevant to these populations is not considered when preparing exposure estimates, which can underestimate exposure and risk estimates for at-risk populations. Thus, it is necessary for risk or exposure assessors characterizing a diverse population, to first identify and then enumerate certain groups within the general population who are at risk for greater contaminant exposures. The document entitled Sociodemographic Data Used for Identifying Potentially Highly Exposed Populations (also referred to as the Highly Exposed Populations document), assists assessors in identifying and enumerating potentially highly exposed populations. This document presents data relating to factors which potentially impact an individual or group's exposure to environmental contaminants based on activity patterns (how time is spent), microenvironments (locations where time is spent), and other socio-demographic data such as age, gender, race and economic status. Populations potentially more exposed to various chemicals of concern, relative to the general population

Faster Increases in Human Life Expectancy Could Lead to Slower Population Aging

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Counterintuitively, faster increases in human life expectancy could lead to slower population aging. The conventional view that faster increases in human life expectancy would lead to faster population aging is based on the assumption that people become old at a fixed chronological age. A preferable alternative is to base measures of aging on people’s time left to death, because this is more closely related to the characteristics that are associated with old age. Using this alternative interpretation, we show that faster increases in life expectancy would lead to slower population aging. Among other things, this finding affects the assessment of the speed at which countries will age. PMID:25876033

The HIV care cascade: a systematic review of data sources, methodology and comparability.

PubMed

Medland, Nicholas A; McMahon, James H; Chow, Eric P F; Elliott, Julian H; Hoy, Jennifer F; Fairley, Christopher K

2015-01-01

The cascade of HIV diagnosis, care and treatment (HIV care cascade) is increasingly used to direct and evaluate interventions to increase population antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, a key component of treatment as prevention. The ability to compare cascades over time, sub-population, jurisdiction or country is important. However, differences in data sources and methodology used to construct the HIV care cascade might limit its comparability and ultimately its utility. Our aim was to review systematically the different methods used to estimate and report the HIV care cascade and their comparability. A search of published and unpublished literature through March 2015 was conducted. Cascades that reported the continuum of care from diagnosis to virological suppression in a demographically definable population were included. Data sources and methods of measurement or estimation were extracted. We defined the most comparable cascade elements as those that directly measured diagnosis or care from a population-based data set. Thirteen reports were included after screening 1631 records. The undiagnosed HIV-infected population was reported in seven cascades, each of which used different data sets and methods and could not be considered to be comparable. All 13 used mandatory HIV diagnosis notification systems to measure the diagnosed population. Population-based data sets, derived from clinical data or mandatory reporting of CD4 cell counts and viral load tests from all individuals, were used in 6 of 12 cascades reporting linkage, 6 of 13 reporting retention, 3 of 11 reporting ART and 6 of 13 cascades reporting virological suppression. Cascades with access to population-based data sets were able to directly measure cascade elements and are therefore comparable over time, place and sub-population. Other data sources and methods are less comparable. To ensure comparability, countries wishing to accurately measure the cascade should utilize complete population-based data sets from clinical data from elements of a centralized healthcare setting, where available, or mandatory CD4 cell count and viral load test result reporting. Additionally, virological suppression should be presented both as percentage of diagnosed and percentage of estimated total HIV-infected population, until methods to calculate the latter have been standardized.

Overlooked and Unheard: Abuse of Children Who Are Deaf or Hard of Hearing and Their Experience with CPS and Foster Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lomas, Gabriel I.; Johnson, Harold A.

2012-01-01

Children with hearing loss are considered a low-incidence disability population, yet abuse among this population is up to 4 times that of children who are typically developing. The needs among this population are significant, but resources in communities across the nation are few. The authors discuss barriers to disclosure, school-based concerns,…

Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.

PubMed

Charlson, Fiona J; Steel, Zachary; Degenhardt, Louisa; Chey, Tien; Silove, Derrick; Marnane, Claire; Whiteford, Harvey A

2012-01-01

Mental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiological data and current recommended mental health service targets in low and middle income countries (LMIC's). Post-conflict prevalence estimates were derived from models based on a previously conducted systematic review and meta-regression analysis of mental health among populations living in conflict. Political terror ratings and intensity of exposure to traumatic events were used in predictive models. Prevalence of severe cases was applied to chosen populations along with uncertainty ranges. Six populations deemed to be affected by the conflict were chosen for modelling: Misrata (population of 444,812), Benghazi (pop. 674,094), Zintan (pop. 40,000), displaced people within Tripoli/Zlitan (pop. 49,000), displaced people within Misrata (pop. 25,000) and Ras Jdir camps (pop. 3,700). Proposed targets for service coverage, resource utilisation and full-time equivalent staffing for management of severe cases of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are based on a published model for LMIC's. Severe PTSD prevalence in populations exposed to a high level of political terror and traumatic events was estimated at 12.4% (95%CI 8.5-16.7) and was 19.8% (95%CI 14.0-26.3) for severe depression. Across all six populations (total population 1,236,600), the conflict could be associated with 123,200 (71,600-182,400) cases of severe PTSD and 228,100 (134,000-344,200) cases of severe depression; 50% of PTSD cases were estimated to co-occur with severe depression. Based upon service coverage targets, approximately 154 full-time equivalent staff would be required to respond to these cases sufficiently which is substantially below the current level of resource estimates for these regions. This is the first attempt to predict the mental health burden and consequent service response needs of such a conflict, and is crucially timed for Libya.

Predicting the Impact of the 2011 Conflict in Libya on Population Mental Health: PTSD and Depression Prevalence and Mental Health Service Requirements

PubMed Central

Charlson, Fiona J.; Steel, Zachary; Degenhardt, Louisa; Chey, Tien; Silove, Derrick; Marnane, Claire; Whiteford, Harvey A.

2012-01-01

Background Mental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiological data and current recommended mental health service targets in low and middle income countries (LMIC’s). Methods Post-conflict prevalence estimates were derived from models based on a previously conducted systematic review and meta-regression analysis of mental health among populations living in conflict. Political terror ratings and intensity of exposure to traumatic events were used in predictive models. Prevalence of severe cases was applied to chosen populations along with uncertainty ranges. Six populations deemed to be affected by the conflict were chosen for modelling: Misrata (population of 444,812), Benghazi (pop. 674,094), Zintan (pop. 40,000), displaced people within Tripoli/Zlitan (pop. 49,000), displaced people within Misrata (pop. 25,000) and Ras Jdir camps (pop. 3,700). Proposed targets for service coverage, resource utilisation and full-time equivalent staffing for management of severe cases of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are based on a published model for LMIC’s. Findings Severe PTSD prevalence in populations exposed to a high level of political terror and traumatic events was estimated at 12.4% (95%CI 8.5–16.7) and was 19.8% (95%CI 14.0–26.3) for severe depression. Across all six populations (total population 1,236,600), the conflict could be associated with 123,200 (71,600–182,400) cases of severe PTSD and 228,100 (134,000–344,200) cases of severe depression; 50% of PTSD cases were estimated to co-occur with severe depression. Based upon service coverage targets, approximately 154 full-time equivalent staff would be required to respond to these cases sufficiently which is substantially below the current level of resource estimates for these regions. Discussion This is the first attempt to predict the mental health burden and consequent service response needs of such a conflict, and is crucially timed for Libya. PMID:22808201

Epidemiology of Polymyalgia Rheumatica 2000-2014 and Examination of Incidence and Survival Trends Over 45 Years: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Raheel, Shafay; Shbeeb, Izzat; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

2017-08-01

To determine time trends in the incidence and survival of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) over a 15-year period in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and to examine trends in incidence of PMR in the population by comparing this time period to a previous incidence cohort from the same population base. All cases of incident PMR among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents in 2000-2014 were identified to extend the previous 1970-1999 cohort. Detailed review of all individual medical records was performed. Incidence rates were age- and sex-adjusted to the US white 2010 population. Survival rates were compared with the expected rates in the population of Minnesota. There were 377 incident cases of PMR during the 15-year study period. Of these, 64% were female and the mean age at incidence was 74.1 years. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of PMR was 63.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 57.4-70.4) per 100,000 population ages ≥50 years. Incidence rates increased with age in both sexes, but incidence fell after age 80 years. There was a slight increase in incidence of PMR in the recent time period compared to 1970-1999 (P = 0.063). Mortality among individuals with PMR was not significantly worse than that expected in the general population (standardized mortality ratio 0.70 [95% CI 0.57-0.85]). The incidence of PMR has increased slightly in the past 15 years compared to previous decades. Survivorship in patients with PMR is not worse than in the general population. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Spatiotemporal Interpolation Methods for the Application of Estimating Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in the Contiguous U.S. and a Real-Time Web Application.

PubMed

Li, Lixin; Zhou, Xiaolu; Kalo, Marc; Piltner, Reinhard

2016-07-25

Appropriate spatiotemporal interpolation is critical to the assessment of relationships between environmental exposures and health outcomes. A powerful assessment of human exposure to environmental agents would incorporate spatial and temporal dimensions simultaneously. This paper compares shape function (SF)-based and inverse distance weighting (IDW)-based spatiotemporal interpolation methods on a data set of PM2.5 data in the contiguous U.S. Particle pollution, also known as particulate matter (PM), is composed of microscopic solids or liquid droplets that are so small that they can get deep into the lungs and cause serious health problems. PM2.5 refers to particles with a mean aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers. Based on the error statistics results of k-fold cross validation, the SF-based method performed better overall than the IDW-based method. The interpolation results generated by the SF-based method are combined with population data to estimate the population exposure to PM2.5 in the contiguous U.S. We investigated the seasonal variations, identified areas where annual and daily PM2.5 were above the standards, and calculated the population size in these areas. Finally, a web application is developed to interpolate and visualize in real time the spatiotemporal variation of ambient air pollution across the contiguous U.S. using air pollution data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AirNow program.

Spatiotemporal Interpolation Methods for the Application of Estimating Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in the Contiguous U.S. and a Real-Time Web Application

PubMed Central

Li, Lixin; Zhou, Xiaolu; Kalo, Marc; Piltner, Reinhard

2016-01-01

Appropriate spatiotemporal interpolation is critical to the assessment of relationships between environmental exposures and health outcomes. A powerful assessment of human exposure to environmental agents would incorporate spatial and temporal dimensions simultaneously. This paper compares shape function (SF)-based and inverse distance weighting (IDW)-based spatiotemporal interpolation methods on a data set of PM2.5 data in the contiguous U.S. Particle pollution, also known as particulate matter (PM), is composed of microscopic solids or liquid droplets that are so small that they can get deep into the lungs and cause serious health problems. PM2.5 refers to particles with a mean aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers. Based on the error statistics results of k-fold cross validation, the SF-based method performed better overall than the IDW-based method. The interpolation results generated by the SF-based method are combined with population data to estimate the population exposure to PM2.5 in the contiguous U.S. We investigated the seasonal variations, identified areas where annual and daily PM2.5 were above the standards, and calculated the population size in these areas. Finally, a web application is developed to interpolate and visualize in real time the spatiotemporal variation of ambient air pollution across the contiguous U.S. using air pollution data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s AirNow program. PMID:27463722

An open Markov chain scheme model for a credit consumption portfolio fed by ARIMA and SARMA processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esquível, Manuel L.; Fernandes, José Moniz; Guerreiro, Gracinda R.

2016-06-01

We introduce a schematic formalism for the time evolution of a random population entering some set of classes and such that each member of the population evolves among these classes according to a scheme based on a Markov chain model. We consider that the flow of incoming members is modeled by a time series and we detail the time series structure of the elements in each of the classes. We present a practical application to data from a credit portfolio of a Cape Verdian bank; after modeling the entering population in two different ways - namely as an ARIMA process and as a deterministic sigmoid type trend plus a SARMA process for the residues - we simulate the behavior of the population and compare the results. We get that the second method is more accurate in describing the behavior of the populations when compared to the observed values in a direct simulation of the Markov chain.

More reliable estimates of divergence times in Pan using complete mtDNA sequences and accounting for population structure.

PubMed

Stone, Anne C; Battistuzzi, Fabia U; Kubatko, Laura S; Perry, George H; Trudeau, Evan; Lin, Hsiuman; Kumar, Sudhir

2010-10-27

Here, we report the sequencing and analysis of eight complete mitochondrial genomes of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) from each of the three established subspecies (P. t. troglodytes, P. t. schweinfurthii and P. t. verus) and the proposed fourth subspecies (P. t. ellioti). Our population genetic analyses are consistent with neutral patterns of evolution that have been shaped by demography. The high levels of mtDNA diversity in western chimpanzees are unlike those seen at nuclear loci, which may reflect a demographic history of greater female to male effective population sizes possibly owing to the characteristics of the founding population. By using relaxed-clock methods, we have inferred a timetree of chimpanzee species and subspecies. The absolute divergence times vary based on the methods and calibration used, but relative divergence times show extensive uniformity. Overall, mtDNA produces consistently older times than those known from nuclear markers, a discrepancy that is reduced significantly by explicitly accounting for chimpanzee population structures in time estimation. Assuming the human-chimpanzee split to be between 7 and 5 Ma, chimpanzee time estimates are 2.1-1.5, 1.1-0.76 and 0.25-0.18 Ma for the chimpanzee/bonobo, western/(eastern + central) and eastern/central chimpanzee divergences, respectively.

Local variations in the timing of RSV epidemics.

PubMed

Noveroske, Douglas B; Warren, Joshua L; Pitzer, Virginia E; Weinberger, Daniel M

2016-11-11

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a primary cause of hospitalizations in children worldwide. The timing of seasonal RSV epidemics needs to be known in order to administer prophylaxis to high-risk infants at the appropriate time. We used data from the Connecticut State Inpatient Database to identify RSV hospitalizations based on ICD-9 diagnostic codes. Harmonic regression analyses were used to evaluate RSV epidemic timing at the county level and ZIP code levels. Linear regression was used to investigate associations between the socioeconomic status of a locality and RSV epidemic timing. 9,740 hospitalizations coded as RSV occurred among children less than 2 years old between July 1, 1997 and June 30, 2013. The earliest ZIP code had a seasonal RSV epidemic that peaked, on average, 4.64 weeks earlier than the latest ZIP code. Earlier epidemic timing was significantly associated with demographic characteristics (higher population density and larger fraction of the population that was black). Seasonal RSV epidemics in Connecticut occurred earlier in areas that were more urban (higher population density and larger fraction of the population that was). These findings could be used to better time the administration of prophylaxis to high-risk infants.

Shot noise perturbations and mean first passage times between stable states.

PubMed

Drury, Kevin L S

2007-08-01

Predicting crossings between stable states is a central issue in population biology. Crossings from low-density to high-density equilibria are often associated with pest outbreaks, while the opposite crossings are often associated with population collapse of harvested species. Here I use a simple, bistable model to demonstrate a technique for estimating mean first passage times (MFPT) of thresholds, including boundaries between stable equilibria. The approach is based on stochastic "shot-noise" perturbations to the population and the MFPTs compare favorably with mean crossing times from Monte Carlo numerical solutions of the stochastically perturbed model. This agreement suggests that MFPT approximations can be used to quantify expected effects of species manipulations, whether the goal is pest control or sustainable harvest.

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

2016-07-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. © The American Genetic Association. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Linear time algorithms to construct populations fitting multiple constraint distributions at genomic scales.

PubMed

Siragusa, Enrico; Haiminen, Niina; Utro, Filippo; Parida, Laxmi

2017-10-09

Computer simulations can be used to study population genetic methods, models and parameters, as well as to predict potential outcomes. For example, in plant populations, predicting the outcome of breeding operations can be studied using simulations. In-silico construction of populations with pre-specified characteristics is an important task in breeding optimization and other population genetic studies. We present two linear time Simulation using Best-fit Algorithms (SimBA) for two classes of problems where each co-fits two distributions: SimBA-LD fits linkage disequilibrium and minimum allele frequency distributions, while SimBA-hap fits founder-haplotype and polyploid allele dosage distributions. An incremental gap-filling version of previously introduced SimBA-LD is here demonstrated to accurately fit the target distributions, allowing efficient large scale simulations. SimBA-hap accuracy and efficiency is demonstrated by simulating tetraploid populations with varying numbers of founder haplotypes, we evaluate both a linear time greedy algoritm and an optimal solution based on mixed-integer programming. SimBA is available on http://researcher.watson.ibm.com/project/5669.

Beverton-Holt discrete pest management models with pulsed chemical control and evolution of pesticide resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Juhua; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.

2016-07-01

Pest resistance to pesticides is usually managed by switching between different types of pesticides. The optimal switching time, which depends on the dynamics of the pest population and on the evolution of the pesticide resistance, is critical. Here we address how the dynamic complexity of the pest population, the development of resistance and the spraying frequency of pulsed chemical control affect optimal switching strategies given different control aims. To do this, we developed novel discrete pest population growth models with both impulsive chemical control and the evolution of pesticide resistance. Strong and weak threshold conditions which guarantee the extinction of the pest population, based on the threshold values of the analytical formula for the optimal switching time, were derived. Further, we addressed switching strategies in the light of chosen economic injury levels. Moreover, the effects of the complex dynamical behaviour of the pest population on the pesticide switching times were also studied. The pesticide application period, the evolution of pesticide resistance and the dynamic complexity of the pest population may result in complex outbreak patterns, with consequent effects on the pesticide switching strategies.

Gradient-free MCMC methods for dynamic causal modelling.

PubMed

Sengupta, Biswa; Friston, Karl J; Penny, Will D

2015-05-15

In this technical note we compare the performance of four gradient-free MCMC samplers (random walk Metropolis sampling, slice-sampling, adaptive MCMC sampling and population-based MCMC sampling with tempering) in terms of the number of independent samples they can produce per unit computational time. For the Bayesian inversion of a single-node neural mass model, both adaptive and population-based samplers are more efficient compared with random walk Metropolis sampler or slice-sampling; yet adaptive MCMC sampling is more promising in terms of compute time. Slice-sampling yields the highest number of independent samples from the target density - albeit at almost 1000% increase in computational time, in comparison to the most efficient algorithm (i.e., the adaptive MCMC sampler). Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decrease in incidence of colorectal cancer among individuals 50 years or older following recommendations for population-based screening

PubMed Central

Murphy, Caitlin C.; Sandler, Robert S.; Sanoff, Hanna K.; Yang, Y. Claire; Lund, Jennifer L.; Baron, John A.

2016-01-01

Background & Aims The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the U.S. is increasing among adults younger than age 50 years, but incidence has decreased among older populations after population-based screening was recommended in the late 1980s. Blacks have higher incidence than whites. These patterns have prompted suggestions to lower the screening age for average-risk populations or in blacks. At the same time, there has been controversy over whether reductions in CRC incidence can be attributed to screening. We examined age- and race-related differences in CRC incidence over a 40-year time period. Methods We determined the age-standardized incidence of CRC, from 1975 through 2013, using the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of cancer registries. We calculated incidence for 5-year age categories (20—24 years through 80—84 years and 85 years or older) for different time periods (1975—1979, 1980—1984, 1985—1989, 1990—1994, 1995—1999, 2000—2004, 2005—2009, and 2010—2013), tumor subsite (proximal colon, descending colon, and rectum), and stages at diagnosis (localized, regional, and distant). Analyses were stratified by race (white vs. black). Results There were 450,682 incident cases of CRC reported to the SEER registries over the entire period (1975—2013). Overall incidence was 75.5/100,000 white persons and 83.6/100,000 black persons. CRC incidence peaked during 1980 through 1989 and began to decrease in 1990. In whites and blacks, the decreases in incidence between the time periods of 1980—1984 and 2010—2013 were limited to the screening-age population (ages 50 years or older). Between these time periods, there was a 40% decrease in incidence among whites compared with a 26% decrease in incidence among blacks. Decreases in incidence were greater for cancers of the distal colon and rectum, and reductions in these cancers were greater among whites than blacks. CRC incidence among persons younger than 50 years decreased slightly between 1975—1979 and 1990. However, among persons 20—49 years old, CRC incidence decreased from 8.3/100,000 persons in 1990—1994 to 11.4/100,000 persons in 2010—2013; incidence rates in younger adults were similar for whites and blacks. Conclusions Based on an analysis of the SEER cancer registries from 1975 through 2013, CRC incidence decreased only among individuals 50 years or older between the time periods of 1980—1984 and 2010—2013. Incidence increased modestly among individuals 20—49 years old between the time periods of 1990—1994 and 2010—2013; the decision of whether to recommend screening for younger populations requires a formal analysis of risks and benefits. Our observed trends provide compelling evidence that screening has had an important role in reducing CRC incidence. PMID:27609707

Excavating past population structures by surname-based sampling: the genetic legacy of the Vikings in northwest England

PubMed Central

Bowden, Georgina R.; Balaresque, Patricia; King, Turi E.; Hansen, Ziff; Lee, Andrew C.; Pergl-Wilson, Giles; Hurley, Emma; Roberts, Stephen J.; Waite, Patrick; Jesch, Judith; Jones, Abigail L.; Thomas, Mark G.; Harding, Stephen E.; Jobling, Mark A.

2009-01-01

The genetic structures of past human populations are obscured by recent migrations and expansions, and can been observed only indirectly by inference from modern samples. However, the unique link between a heritable cultural marker, the patrilineal surname, and a genetic marker, the Y chromosome, provides a means to target sets of modern individuals that might resemble populations at the time of surname establishment. As a test case, we studied samples from the Wirral peninsula and West Lancashire, in northwest England. Place names and archaeology show clear evidence of a past Viking presence, but heavy immigration and population growth since the Industrial Revolution are likely to have weakened the genetic signal of a thousand-year-old Scandinavian contribution. Samples ascertained on the basis of two generations of residence were compared with independent samples based on known ancestry in the region, plus the possession of a surname known from historical records to have been present there in medieval times. The Y-chromosomal haplotypes of these two sets of samples are significantly different, and in admixture analyses the surname-ascertained samples show markedly greater Scandinavian ancestry proportions, supporting the idea that northwest England was once heavily populated by Scandinavian settlers. The method of historical surname-based ascertainment promises to allow investigation of the influence of migration and drift over the last few centuries in changing the population structure of Britain, and will have general utility in other regions where surnames are patrilineal and suitable historical records survive. PMID:18032405

A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

2016-04-01

A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

First experiences in the implementation of biometric technology to link data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems with health facility data.

PubMed

Serwaa-Bonsu, Adwoa; Herbst, Abraham J; Reniers, Georges; Ijaa, Wilfred; Clark, Benjamin; Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa; Sankoh, Osman

2010-02-24

In developing countries, Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) provide a framework for tracking demographic and health dynamics over time in a defined geographical area. Many HDSSs co-exist with facility-based data sources in the form of Health Management Information Systems (HMIS). Integrating both data sources through reliable record linkage could provide both numerator and denominator populations to estimate disease prevalence and incidence rates in the population and enable determination of accurate health service coverage. To measure the acceptability and performance of fingerprint biometrics to identify individuals in demographic surveillance populations and those attending health care facilities serving the surveillance populations. Two HDSS sites used fingerprint biometrics for patient and/or surveillance population participant identification. The proportion of individuals for whom a fingerprint could be successfully enrolled were characterised in terms of age and sex. Adult (18-65 years) fingerprint enrolment rates varied between 94.1% (95% CI 93.6-94.5) for facility-based fingerprint data collection at the Africa Centre site to 96.7% (95% CI 95.9-97.6) for population-based fingerprint data collection at the Agincourt site. Fingerprint enrolment rates in children under 1 year old (Africa Centre site) were only 55.1% (95% CI 52.7-57.4). By age 5, child fingerprint enrolment rates were comparable to those of adults. This work demonstrates the feasibility of fingerprint-based individual identification for population-based research in developing countries. Record linkage between demographic surveillance population databases and health care facility data based on biometric identification systems would allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of population health, including the ability to study health service utilisation from a population perspective, rather than the more restrictive health service perspective.

Captures of boll weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in relation to trap distance from cotton fields

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Once populations of the boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis grandis Boheman) are suppressed, eradication programs rely on pheromone trap-based monitoring for timely detection of weevil populations in cotton (Gossypium spp.). Delayed detection may increase the costs of remedial treatments, and permit rep...

Rapid and Specific Method for Evaluating Streptomyces Competitive Dynamics in Complex Soil Communities

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantifying target microbial populations in complex communities remains a barrier to studying species interactions in soil environments. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) offers a rapid and specific means to assess populations of target microorganisms. SYBR Green and TaqMan-based qPCR assays were de...

Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

2017-10-01

A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

Population-based screening for anemia using first-time blood donors

PubMed Central

Mast, Alan E.; Steele, Whitney R.; Johnson, Bryce; Wright, David J.; Cable, Ritchard G.; Carey, Patricia; Gottschall, Jerome L.; Kiss, Joseph E.; Simon, Toby L.; Murphy, Edward L.

2012-01-01

Background Anemia is an important public health concern. Data from population-based surveys such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) are the gold standard, but are obtained infrequently and include only small samples from certain minority groups. Objectives We assessed whether readily available databases of blood donor hemoglobin values could be used as a surrogate for population hemoglobin values from NHANES. Design Blood donor venous and fingerstick hemoglobin values were compared to 10,254 NHANES 2005-2008 venous hemoglobin values using demographically stratified analyses and ANOVA. Fingerstick hemoglobins or hematocrits were converted to venous hemoglobin estimates using regression analysis. Results Venous hemoglobin values from 1,609 first time donors correlated extremely well with NHANES data across different age, gender and demographic groups. Cigarette smoking increased hemoglobin by 0.26 to 0.59 g/dL depending on intensity. Converted fingerstick hemoglobin from 36,793 first time donors agreed well with NHANES hemoglobin (weighted mean hemoglobin of 15.53 g/dL for donors and 15.73 g/dL for NHANES) with similar variation in mean hemoglobin by age. However, compared to NHANES, the larger donor dataset showed reduced differences in mean hemoglobin between Blacks and other races/ethnicities. Conclusions Overall, first-time donor fingerstick hemoglobins approximate U.S. population data and represent a readily available public health resource for ongoing anemia surveillance. PMID:22460662

Towards Evidence-Based Practice in Language Intervention for Bilingual Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thordardottir, Elin

2010-01-01

Evidence-based practice requires that clinical decisions be based on evidence from rigorously controlled research studies. At this time, very few studies have directly examined the efficacy of clinical intervention methods for bilingual children. Clinical decisions for this population cannot, therefore, be based on the strongest forms of research…

A Windows application for computing standardized mortality ratios and standardized incidence ratios in cohort studies based on calculation of exact person-years at risk.

PubMed

Geiss, Karla; Meyer, Martin

2013-09-01

Standardized mortality ratios and standardized incidence ratios are widely used in cohort studies to compare mortality or incidence in a study population to that in the general population on a age-time-specific basis, but their computation is not included in standard statistical software packages. Here we present a user-friendly Microsoft Windows program for computing standardized mortality ratios and standardized incidence ratios based on calculation of exact person-years at risk stratified by sex, age and calendar time. The program offers flexible import of different file formats for input data and easy handling of general population reference rate tables, such as mortality or incidence tables exported from cancer registry databases. The application of the program is illustrated with two examples using empirical data from the Bavarian Cancer Registry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Designing Home-Based Telemedicine Systems for the Geriatric Population: An Empirical Study.

PubMed

Narasimha, Shraddhaa; Agnisarman, Sruthy; Chalil Madathil, Kapil; Gramopadhye, Anand; McElligott, James T

2018-02-01

Background and Introduction: Telemedicine, the process of providing healthcare remotely using communication devices, has the potential to be useful for the geriatric population when specifically designed for this age group. This study explored the design of four video telemedicine systems currently available and outlined issues with these systems that impact usability among the geriatric population. Based on the results, design suggestions were developed to improve telemedicine systems for this population. Using a between-subjects experimental design, the study considered four telemedicine systems used in Medical University of South Carolina. The study was conducted at a local retirement home. The participant pool consisted of 40 adults, 60 years or older. The dependent measures used were the mean times for telemedicine session initiation and video session, mean number of errors, post-test satisfaction ratings, the NASA-Task Load Index (NASA-TLX) workload measures, and the IBM-Computer Systems Usability Questionnaire measures. Statistical significance was found among the telemedicine systems' initiation times. The analysis of the qualitative data revealed several issues, including lengthy e-mail content, icon placement, and chat box design, which affect the usability of these systems for the geriatric population. Human factor-based design modifications, including short, precise e-mail content, appropriately placed icons, and the inclusion of instructions, are recommended to address the issues found in the qualitative study.

Low resolution 1H NMR assignment of proton populations in pound cake and its polymeric ingredients.

PubMed

Luyts, A; Wilderjans, E; Waterschoot, J; Van Haesendonck, I; Brijs, K; Courtin, C M; Hills, B; Delcour, J A

2013-08-15

Based on a model system approach, five different proton populations were distinguished in pound cake crumb using one dimensional low resolution (1)H NMR spectroscopy. In free induction decay (FID) measurements, proton populations were assigned to (i) non-exchanging CH protons of crystalline starch, proteins and crystalline fat and (ii) non-exchanging CH protons of amorphous starch and gluten, which are in little contact with water. In Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) measurements, three proton populations were distinguished. The CPMG population with the lowest mobility and the FID population with the highest mobility represent the same proton population. The two CPMG proton populations with the highest mobility were assigned to exchanging protons (i.e., protons of water, starch, gluten, egg proteins and sugar) and protons of lipids (i.e., protons of egg yolk lipids and amorphous lipid fraction of margarine) respectively. Based on their spin-lattice relaxation times (T1), two dimensional (1)H NMR spectroscopy further resolved the two proton populations with the highest mobility into three and two proton populations, respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales.

PubMed

Pepin, Kim M; Kay, Shannon L; Golas, Ben D; Shriner, Susan S; Gilbert, Amy T; Miller, Ryan S; Graham, Andrea L; Riley, Steven; Cross, Paul C; Samuel, Michael D; Hooten, Mevin B; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Webb, Colleen T; Buhnerkempe, Michael G

2017-03-01

Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pepin, Kim M.; Kay, Shannon L.; Golas, Ben D.; Shriner, Susan A.; Gilbert, Amy T.; Miller, Ryan S.; Graham, Andrea L.; Riley, Steven; Cross, Paul C.; Samuel, Michael D.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Webb, Colleen T.; Buhnerkempe, Michael G.

2017-01-01

Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease.

From blackbirds to black holes: Investigating capture-recapture methods for time domain astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laycock, Silas G. T.

2017-07-01

In time domain astronomy, recurrent transients present a special problem: how to infer total populations from limited observations. Monitoring observations may give a biassed view of the underlying population due to limitations on observing time, visibility and instrumental sensitivity. A similar problem exists in the life sciences, where animal populations (such as migratory birds) or disease prevalence, must be estimated from sparse and incomplete data. The class of methods termed Capture-Recapture is used to reconstruct population estimates from time-series records of encounters with the study population. This paper investigates the performance of Capture-Recapture methods in astronomy via a series of numerical simulations. The Blackbirds code simulates monitoring of populations of transients, in this case accreting binary stars (neutron star or black hole accreting from a stellar companion) under a range of observing strategies. We first generate realistic light-curves for populations of binaries with contrasting orbital period distributions. These models are then randomly sampled at observing cadences typical of existing and planned monitoring surveys. The classical capture-recapture methods, Lincoln-Peterson, Schnabel estimators, related techniques, and newer methods implemented in the Rcapture package are compared. A general exponential model based on the radioactive decay law is introduced which is demonstrated to recover (at 95% confidence) the underlying population abundance and duty cycle, in a fraction of the observing visits (10-50%) required to discover all the sources in the simulation. Capture-Recapture is a promising addition to the toolbox of time domain astronomy, and methods implemented in R by the biostats community can be readily called from within python.

Mass and energy budgets of animals: Behavioral and ecological implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, W.P.

1991-11-01

The two major aims of our lab are as follows: First, to develop and field-test general mechanistic models that predict animal life history characteristics as influenced by climate and the physical, physiological behavioral characteristics of species. This involves: understanding how animal time and energy budgets are affected by climate and animal properties; predicting growth and reproductive potential from time and energy budgets; predicting mortality based on climate and time and energy budgets; and linking these individual based models to population dynamics. Second to conduct empirical studies of animal physiological ecology, particularly the effects of temperature on time and energy budgets.more » The physiological ecology of individual animals is the key link between the physical environment and population-level phenomena. We address the macroclimate to microclimate linkage on a broad spatial scale; address the links between individuals and population dynamics for lizard species; test the endotherm energetics and behavior model using beaver; address the spatial variation in climate and its effects on individual energetics, growth and reproduction; and address patchiness in the environment and constraints they may impose on individual energetics, growth and reproduction. These projects are described individually in the following section. 24 refs., 9 figs.« less

Access to hyperacute stroke services across Canadian provinces: a geospatial analysis

PubMed Central

Eswaradass, Prasanna Venkatesan; Swartz, Richard H.; Rosen, Jamey; Hill, Michael D.; Lindsay, M. Patrice

2017-01-01

Background: Canada's vast geography creates challenges for ensuring prompt transport to hospital of patients who have had a stroke. We sought to determine the proportion of people across various Canadian provinces for whom hyperacute stroke services are accessible within evidence-based time targets. Methods: We calculated, for the 8 provinces with available data, drive-time polygons on a map of Canada that delineated the area around stroke centres and emergency medical services (EMS) base centres to which one can drive in 3.5-6 hours. We calculated the proportional area of each forward sortation area (first 3 digits of the postal code) contained within a drive-time polygon. We applied this ratio to the 2011 Canadian census population of the forward sortation area to estimate the population that can reach a stroke centre in a designated time. Results: A total of 47.1%-96.4% of Canadians live within a 4.5-hour drive to a stroke centre via road EMS, and 53.3%-96.8% live within a 6-hour drive. Assuming a total travel time of 5 hours by EMS from base centre to patient and patient to hospital, 84.7%-99.8% of the population has access to a current or proposed endovascular thrombectomy site. Interpretation: Most Canadians live within 6 hours' road access to a stroke centre. Geospatial mapping could be used to inform decisions for additional sites and identify gaps in service accessibility. Coordinated systems of care and ambulance bypass agreements must continue to evolve to ensure maximal access to time-sensitive emergency stroke services. PMID:28615192

Tuning the Voices of a Choir: Detecting Ecological Gradients in Time-Series Populations.

PubMed

Buras, Allan; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; van der Maaten, Ernst; Ahlgrimm, Svenja; Hermann, Philipp; Simard, Sonia; Heinrich, Ingo; Helle, Gerd; Unterseher, Martin; Schnittler, Martin; Eusemann, Pascal; Wilmking, Martin

2016-01-01

This paper introduces a new approach-the Principal Component Gradient Analysis (PCGA)-to detect ecological gradients in time-series populations, i.e. several time-series originating from different individuals of a population. Detection of ecological gradients is of particular importance when dealing with time-series from heterogeneous populations which express differing trends. PCGA makes use of polar coordinates of loadings from the first two axes obtained by principal component analysis (PCA) to define groups of similar trends. Based on the mean inter-series correlation (rbar) the gain of increasing a common underlying signal by PCGA groups is quantified using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of validation PCGA is compared to three other existing approaches. Focusing on dendrochronological examples, PCGA is shown to correctly determine population gradients and in particular cases to be advantageous over other considered methods. Furthermore, PCGA groups in each example allowed for enhancing the strength of a common underlying signal and comparably well as hierarchical cluster analysis. Our results indicate that PCGA potentially allows for a better understanding of mechanisms causing time-series population gradients as well as objectively enhancing the performance of climate transfer functions in dendroclimatology. While our examples highlight the relevance of PCGA to the field of dendrochronology, we believe that also other disciplines working with data of comparable structure may benefit from PCGA.

Tuning the Voices of a Choir: Detecting Ecological Gradients in Time-Series Populations

PubMed Central

Buras, Allan; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; van der Maaten, Ernst; Ahlgrimm, Svenja; Hermann, Philipp; Simard, Sonia; Heinrich, Ingo; Helle, Gerd; Unterseher, Martin; Schnittler, Martin; Eusemann, Pascal; Wilmking, Martin

2016-01-01

This paper introduces a new approach–the Principal Component Gradient Analysis (PCGA)–to detect ecological gradients in time-series populations, i.e. several time-series originating from different individuals of a population. Detection of ecological gradients is of particular importance when dealing with time-series from heterogeneous populations which express differing trends. PCGA makes use of polar coordinates of loadings from the first two axes obtained by principal component analysis (PCA) to define groups of similar trends. Based on the mean inter-series correlation (rbar) the gain of increasing a common underlying signal by PCGA groups is quantified using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of validation PCGA is compared to three other existing approaches. Focusing on dendrochronological examples, PCGA is shown to correctly determine population gradients and in particular cases to be advantageous over other considered methods. Furthermore, PCGA groups in each example allowed for enhancing the strength of a common underlying signal and comparably well as hierarchical cluster analysis. Our results indicate that PCGA potentially allows for a better understanding of mechanisms causing time-series population gradients as well as objectively enhancing the performance of climate transfer functions in dendroclimatology. While our examples highlight the relevance of PCGA to the field of dendrochronology, we believe that also other disciplines working with data of comparable structure may benefit from PCGA. PMID:27467508

Electronic media use and addiction among youth in psychiatric clinic versus school populations.

PubMed

Baer, Susan; Saran, Kelly; Green, David A; Hong, Irene

2012-12-01

Electronic media use is highly prevalent among today's youth, and its overuse in the general population has been consistently associated with the presence of psychiatric symptoms. In contrast, little information exists about electronic media use among youth with psychiatric disorders. Our study aims to compare patterns of television and computer and gaming station use among youth in psychiatric clinic and community-based school populations. Surveys were completed by 210 youth and parents, from school (n = 110) and psychiatric clinic (n = 100) populations. Duration and frequency of television, video gaming, and nongaming computer activities were ascertained, along with addictive features of use. Descriptive and comparative analyses were conducted, with a statistical threshold of P < 0.05. Quantitative and qualitative differences were identified between the patterns of use reported by the 2 groups. The mean reported daily duration of exposure to electronic media use was 6.6 hours (SD 4.1) for the clinic sample and 4.6 hours (SD 2.6) for the school sample (P < 0.01). Self-reported rates of addictive patterns related to computer and gaming station use were similar between the 2 populations. However, the clinically based sample favoured more violent games, with 29% reporting playing mature-rated games, compared with 13% reported by the school-based sample (P = 0.02). Youth with externalizing disorders expended greater time video gaming, compared with youth with internalizing disorders (P = 0.01). Clinically based samples of youth with mental illnesses spend more time engaged in electronic media activities and are more likely to play violent video games, compared with youth in the general population. Further research is needed to determine the long-term implications of these differences.

Heterogeneous voter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masuda, Naoki; Gibert, N.; Redner, S.

2010-07-01

We introduce the heterogeneous voter model (HVM), in which each agent has its own intrinsic rate to change state, reflective of the heterogeneity of real people, and the partisan voter model (PVM), in which each agent has an innate and fixed preference for one of two possible opinion states. For the HVM, the time until consensus is reached is much longer than in the classic voter model. For the PVM in the mean-field limit, a population evolves to a preference-based state, where each agent tends to be aligned with its internal preference. For finite populations, discrete fluctuations ultimately lead to consensus being reached in a time that scales exponentially with population size.

Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk--a method for assessment of preventive care.

PubMed

Strömberg, Ulf; Holmn, Anders; Magnusson, Kerstin; Twetman, Svante

2012-06-11

Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006) and 10,927 (2010) children between 3 to 6 years of age (~77% of the eligible population) from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region). Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI® ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0) children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level) smoothed relative risks (SmRRs) increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive care in child populations.

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

PubMed Central

Reed, Thomas E.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hague, Merran J.; Patterson, David A.; Meir, Eli; Waples, Robin S.; Hinch, Scott G.

2011-01-01

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change. PMID:21738573

Temporal Trends in the Utilization of Noninvasive Diagnostic Tests for Coronary Artery Disease in Ontario Between 2008 and 2014: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Roifman, Idan; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Austin, Peter C; Maclagan, Laura C; Rezai, Mohammad R; Wright, Graham A; Tu, Jack V

2017-02-01

The proliferation of cardiac diagnostic tests over the past few decades has received substantial attention from policymakers. However, contemporary population-based temporal trends of the utilization of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests for coronary artery disease are not known. Our objective was to examine the temporal trends in the utilization of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), exercise stress testing (GXT), and stress echocardiography between 2008 and 2014. We performed a population-based repeated cross-sectional study of the adult population of Ontario between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2014. Annual utilization rates of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests were computed. For each cardiac testing modality, a negative binomial regression model was used to assess temporal changes in test utilization. GXT and MPI collectively accounted for 88% of all cardiac noninvasive diagnostic tests throughout our study period. Age- and sex-standardized rates of GXT declined from 26.7/1000 adult population to 21.6/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 3.4%; P < 0.001). MPI rates declined from 21.1/1000 adult population to 19.5/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.3%; P < 0.001). Although utilization rates for both CCTA and stress echocardiography increased over time, the combined rate of all available tests decreased from 50.8/1000 adult population to 49.1/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.1%; P < 0.001). In conclusion, utilization rates for the most prevalent noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests-GXT and MPI-declined over our study period. Furthermore, the overall test utilization rate also declined over time. We believe our findings are encouraging from a health policy perspective. Nonetheless, rising utilization rates for CCTA and stress echocardiography will need to be monitored in the future. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel Linkage of Individual and Geographic Data to Study Firearm Violence

PubMed Central

Branas, Charles C.; Culhane, Dennis; Richmond, Therese S.; Wiebe, Douglas J.

2010-01-01

Firearm violence is the end result of a causative web of individual-level and geographic risk factors. Few, if any, studies of firearm violence have been able to simultaneously determine the population-based relative risks that individuals experience as a result of what they were doing at a specific point in time and where they were, geographically, at a specific point in time. This paper describes the linkage of individual and geographic data that was undertaken as part of a population-based case-control study of firearm violence in Philadelphia. New methods and applications of these linked data relevant to researchers and policymakers interested in firearm violence are also discussed. PMID:20617158

Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos)

PubMed Central

Valdiosera, Cristina E.; García-Garitagoitia, José Luis; Garcia, Nuria; Doadrio, Ignacio; Thomas, Mark G.; Hänni, Catherine; Arsuaga, Juan-Luis; Barnes, Ian; Hofreiter, Michael; Orlando, Ludovic; Götherström, Anders

2008-01-01

The endangered brown bear populations (Ursus arctos) in Iberia have been suggested to be the last fragments of the brown bear population that served as recolonization stock for large parts of Europe during the Pleistocene. Conservation efforts are intense, and results are closely monitored. However, the efforts are based on the assumption that the Iberian bears are a unique unit that has evolved locally for an extended period. We have sequenced mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from ancient Iberian bear remains and analyzed them as a serial dataset, monitoring changes in diversity and occurrence of European haplogroups over time. Using these data, we show that the Iberian bear population has experienced a dynamic, recent evolutionary history. Not only has the population undergone mitochondrial gene flow from other European brown bears, but the effective population size also has fluctuated substantially. We conclude that the Iberian bear population has been a fluid evolutionary unit, developed by gene flow from other populations and population bottlenecks, far from being in genetic equilibrium or isolated from other brown bear populations. Thus, the current situation is highly unusual and the population may in fact be isolated for the first time in its history. PMID:18347332

Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos).

PubMed

Valdiosera, Cristina E; García-Garitagoitia, José Luis; Garcia, Nuria; Doadrio, Ignacio; Thomas, Mark G; Hänni, Catherine; Arsuaga, Juan-Luis; Barnes, Ian; Hofreiter, Michael; Orlando, Ludovic; Götherström, Anders

2008-04-01

The endangered brown bear populations (Ursus arctos) in Iberia have been suggested to be the last fragments of the brown bear population that served as recolonization stock for large parts of Europe during the Pleistocene. Conservation efforts are intense, and results are closely monitored. However, the efforts are based on the assumption that the Iberian bears are a unique unit that has evolved locally for an extended period. We have sequenced mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from ancient Iberian bear remains and analyzed them as a serial dataset, monitoring changes in diversity and occurrence of European haplogroups over time. Using these data, we show that the Iberian bear population has experienced a dynamic, recent evolutionary history. Not only has the population undergone mitochondrial gene flow from other European brown bears, but the effective population size also has fluctuated substantially. We conclude that the Iberian bear population has been a fluid evolutionary unit, developed by gene flow from other populations and population bottlenecks, far from being in genetic equilibrium or isolated from other brown bear populations. Thus, the current situation is highly unusual and the population may in fact be isolated for the first time in its history.

Mortality and Causes of Death in Patients With Osteogenesis Imperfecta: A Register-Based Nationwide Cohort Study.

PubMed

Folkestad, Lars; Hald, Jannie Dahl; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Gram, Jeppe; Hermann, Anne Pernille; Langdahl, Bente; Abrahamsen, Bo; Brixen, Kim

2016-12-01

Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a hereditary connective tissue disease that causes frequent fractures. Little is known about causes of death and length of survival in OI. The objective of this work was to calculate the risk and cause of death, and the median survival time in patients with OI. This study was a Danish nationwide, population-based and register-based cohort study. We used National Patient Register data from 1977 until 2013 with complete long-term follow-up. Participants comprised all patients registered with the diagnosis of OI from 1977 until 2013, and a reference population matched five to one to the OI cohort. We calculated hazard ratios for all-cause mortality and subhazard ratios for cause-specific mortality in a comparison of the OI cohort and the reference population. We also calculated all-cause mortality hazard ratios for males, females, and age groups (0 to 17.99 years, 18.00 to 34.99 years, 35.00 to 54.99 years, 55.00 to 74.99 years, and >75 years). We identified 687 cases of OI (379 women) and included 3435 reference persons (1895 women). A total of 112 patients with OI and 257 persons in the reference population died during the observation period. The all-cause mortality hazard ratio between the OI cohort and the reference population was 2.90. The median survival time for males with OI was 72.4 years, compared to 81.9 in the reference population. The median survival time for females with OI was 77.4 years, compared to 84.5 years in the reference population. Patients with OI had a higher risk of death from respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal diseases, and trauma. We were limited by the lack of clinical information about phenotype and genotype of the included patients. Patients with OI had a higher mortality rate throughout their life compared to the general population. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

[Prevalence of leisure-time physical activity and associated factors: a population-based study in São Paulo, Brazil, 2008-2009].

PubMed

Sousa, Clóvis Arlindo de; César, Chester Luiz Galvão; Barros, Marilisa Berti de Azevedo; Carandina, Luana; Goldbaum, Moisés; Marchioni, Dirce Maria Lobo; Fisberg, Regina Mara

2013-02-01

The purpose of this study was to ascertain the prevalence of self-reported leisure-time physical activity and related factors in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, 2008-2009. A population- based cross-sectional study interviewed 2,691 individuals of both sexes, 12 years or older. A two-stage cluster (census tract, household) random sample provided data using home interviews in 2008 and 2009. Leisure-time physical activity was measured with IPAQ, long version. Complex sample-adjusted descriptive statistics provided prevalence estimates, chi-square tests screened associations, and prevalence ratios (PR) expressed effects. Multiple Poisson regression was used to ascertain adjusted effects, and design effects were calculated. Of the interviewees, 16.4% (95%CI: 14.3-18.7) reported leisure-time physical activity. The findings indicate the importance of encouraging leisure-time physical activity, which was associated with male sex, higher income, younger age (12 to 29 years), not smoking, and not reporting frequent fatigue.

Productivity losses in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based survey.

PubMed

Erdal, Marta; Johannessen, Ane; Askildsen, Jan Erik; Eagan, Tomas; Gulsvik, Amund; Grønseth, Rune

2014-01-01

We aimed to estimate incremental productivity losses (sick leave and disability) of spirometry-defined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in a population-based sample and in hospital-recruited patients with COPD. Furthermore, we examined predictors of productivity losses by multivariate analyses. We performed four quarterly telephone interviews of 53 and 107 population-based patients with COPD and controls, as well as 102 hospital-recruited patients with COPD below retirement age. Information was gathered regarding annual productivity loss, exacerbations of respiratory symptoms and comorbidities. Incremental productivity losses were estimated by multivariate quantile median regression according to the human capital approach, adjusting for sex, age, smoking habits, education and lung function. Main effect variables were COPD/control status, number of comorbidities and exacerbations of respiratory symptoms. Altogether 55%, 87% and 31% of population-based COPD cases, controls and hospital patients, respectively, had a paid job at baseline. The annual incremental productivity losses were 5.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 10.1) and 330.6 (95% CI 327.8 to 333.3) days, comparing population-recruited and hospital-recruited patients with COPD to controls, respectively. There were significantly higher productivity losses associated with female sex and less education. Additional adjustments for comorbidities, exacerbations and FEV1% predicted explained all productivity losses in the population-based sample, as well as nearly 40% of the productivity losses in hospital-recruited patients. Annual incremental productivity losses were more than 50 times higher in hospital-recruited patients with COPD than that of population-recruited patients with COPD. To ensure a precise estimation of societal burden, studies on patients with COPD should be population-based.

Climate-based models for West Nile Culex mosquito vectors in the Northeastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Hongfei; Degaetano, Arthur T.; Harrington, Laura C.

2011-05-01

Climate-based models simulating Culex mosquito population abundance in the Northeastern US were developed. Two West Nile vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans, were included in model simulations. The model was optimized by a parameter-space search within biological bounds. Mosquito population dynamics were driven by major environmental factors including temperature, rainfall, evaporation rate and photoperiod. The results show a strong correlation between the timing of early population increases (as early warning of West Nile virus risk) and decreases in late summer. Simulated abundance was highly correlated with actual mosquito capture in New Jersey light traps and validated with field data. This climate-based model simulates the population dynamics of both the adult and immature mosquito life stage of Culex arbovirus vectors in the Northeastern US. It is expected to have direct and practical application for mosquito control and West Nile prevention programs.

A dual near-infrared and dielectric spectroscopies strategy to monitor populations of Chinese hamster ovary cells in bioreactor.

PubMed

Courtès, Franck; Ebel, Bruno; Guédon, Emmanuel; Marc, Annie

2016-05-01

to develop a new strategy combining near-infrared (NIR) and dielectric spectroscopies for real-time monitoring and in-depth characterizing populations of Chinese hamster ovary cells throughout cultures performed in bioreactors. Spectral data processing was based on off-line analyses of the cells, including trypan blue exclusion method, and lactate dehydrogenase activity (LDH). Viable cell density showed a linear correlation with permittivity up to 6 × 10(6) cells ml(-1), while a logarithmic correlation was found between non-lysed dead cell density and conductivity up to 10(7) cells ml(-1). Additionally, partial least square technique was used to develop a calibration model of the supernatant LDH activity based on online NIR spectra with a RMSEC of 55 U l(-1). Considering the LDH content of viable cells measured to be 110 U per 10(9) cells, the lysed dead cell density could be then estimated. These calibration models provided real-time prediction accuracy (R(2) ≥ 0.95) for the three types of cell populations. The high potential of a dual spectroscopy strategy to enhance the online bioprocesses characterization is demonstrated since it allows the simultaneous determination of viable, dead and lysed cell populations in real time.

Trends in cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy for the treatment of synchronous peritoneal carcinomatosis of colorectal origin in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Razenberg, L G E M; van Gestel, Y R B M; Creemers, G-J; Verwaal, V J; Lemmens, V E P P; de Hingh, I H J T

2015-04-01

Population-based data on the percentage of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with synchronous peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) being treated with cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) are currently lacking. The current population-based study describes trends in the use of CRS-HIPEC in the Netherlands, one of the first countries where CRS and HIPEC was introduced. All patients diagnosed with synchronous PC of CRC between 2005 and 2012 were extracted from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (n = 4623). Patients with primary appendiceal cancer were excluded resulting in a study population of 4430 patients. Trends in the use of CRS-HIPEC over time were analyzed by means of a Cochrane-Armitage trend test. Survival proportions were calculated as the time between diagnosis and date of death or last follow-up (January 2014). Of the total 4430 patients with synchronous PC, 297 (6.4%) underwent treatment with CRS-HIPEC. The proportion of colorectal PC patients receiving CRS-HIPEC increased significantly over time from 3.6% in 2005-2006 to 9.7% in 2011-2012 (p < 0.0001). Overall median survival (MS) for patients treated with CRS-HIPEC was 32.3 months, whereas MS rates were respectively 12.6, 6.1 and 1.5 for months palliative chemotherapy with/without surgery, palliative surgery and best supportive care. The proportion of patients diagnosed with synchronous PC from CRC treated with CRS-HIPEC has increased significantly over time and currently almost 10% of PC patients are treated with CRS-HIPEC. Median survival in this population based group is 32.3 months. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impacts of truck based ultra-low volume applications of mosquito adulticides on honey bees (Apis mellifera)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mosquito control reduces populations of mosquitoes to minimize the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. As part of an integrated approach to mosquito control, application of adulticides can be effective in rapidly reducing mosquito populations during times of high arbovirus transmission. However, impact...

Managing multi-ungulate systems in disturbance-adapted forest ecosystems in North America

Treesearch

Martin Vavra; Robert A. Riggs

2010-01-01

Understanding how interactions among ungulate populations and their environmental dynamics play out across scales of time and space is a principal obstacle to managing ungulates in western North America. Morphological similarity, forage-base homogeneity and increasing animal density each enhance the likelihood of competitive interactions among sympatric populations....

Applications of Small Area Estimation to Generalization with Subclassification by Propensity Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Wendy

2018-01-01

Policymakers have grown increasingly interested in how experimental results may generalize to a larger population. However, recently developed propensity score-based methods are limited by small sample sizes, where the experimental study is generalized to a population that is at least 20 times larger. This is particularly problematic for methods…

Intervention-Based Stochastic Disease Eradication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billings, Lora; Mier-Y-Teran-Romero, Luis; Lindley, Brandon; Schwartz, Ira

2013-03-01

Disease control is of paramount importance in public health with infectious disease extinction as the ultimate goal. Intervention controls, such as vaccination of susceptible individuals and/or treatment of infectives, are typically based on a deterministic schedule, such as periodically vaccinating susceptible children based on school calendars. In reality, however, such policies are administered as a random process, while still possessing a mean period. Here, we consider the effect of randomly distributed intervention as disease control on large finite populations. We show explicitly how intervention control, based on mean period and treatment fraction, modulates the average extinction times as a function of population size and the speed of infection. In particular, our results show an exponential improvement in extinction times even though the controls are implemented using a random Poisson distribution. Finally, we discover those parameter regimes where random treatment yields an exponential improvement in extinction times over the application of strictly periodic intervention. The implication of our results is discussed in light of the availability of limited resources for control. Supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Award No. R01GM090204

Texting for Health: An Evaluation of a Population Approach to Type 2 Diabetes Risk Reduction With a Personalized Message.

PubMed

Khurshid, Anjum; Brown, Lisanne; Mukherjee, Snigdha; Abebe, Nebeyou; Kulick, David

2015-11-01

txt4health is an innovative, 14-week, interactive, population-based mobile health program for individuals at risk of type 2 diabetes, developed under the Beacon Community Program in the Greater New Orleans, La., area. A comprehensive social marketing campaign sought to enroll hard-to-reach, at-risk populations using a combination of mass media and face-to-face engagement in faith-based and retail environments. Little is known about the effectiveness of social marketing for mobile technology application in the general population. A systematic evaluation of the campaign identified successes and barriers to implementing a population-based mobile health program. Face-to-face engagement helped increase program enrollment after the initial launch; otherwise, enrollment leveled off over time. Results show positive trends in reaching target populations and in the use of mobile phones to record personal health information and set goals for reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes. The lessons from the txt4health campaign can help inform the development and programmatic strategies to provide a person-level intervention using a population-level approach for individuals at risk for diabetes as well as aid in chronic disease management.

Spatiotemporal patterns of population distribution as crucial element for risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gokesch, Karin; Promper, Catrin; van Westen, Cees J.; Glade, Thomas

2014-05-01

The spatiotemporal distribution and presence of the population in a certain area is a crucial element within natural hazard risk management, especially in the case of rapid onset hazard events and emergency management. When fast onset hazards such as earthquakes, flash floods or industrial accidents occur, people may not have adequate time for evacuation and the emergency management requires a fast response and reaction. Therefore, information on detailed distribution of people affected by a certain hazard is important for a fast assessment of the situation including the number and the type of people (distinguishing between elderly or handicapped people, children, working population etc.) affected. This study thus aims at analyzing population distribution on an hourly basis for different days e.g. workday or holiday. The applied method combines the basic assessment of population distribution in a given area with specific location-related patterns of distribution-changes over time. The calculations are based on detailed information regarding the expected presence of certain groups of people, e.g. school children, working or elderly people, which all show different patterns of movement over certain time periods. The study area is the city of Waidhofen /Ybbs located in the Alpine foreland in the Southwest of Lower Austria. This city serves as a regional center providing basic infrastructure, shops and schools for the surrounding countryside. Therefore a lot of small and medium businesses are located in this area showing a rather high variation of population present at different times of the day. The available building footprint information was classified with respect to building type and occupancy type, which was used to estimate the expected residents within the buildings, based on the floorspace of the buildings and the average floorspace per person. Additional information on the distribution and the average duration of stay of the people in these buildings was assessed using general population statistics and specific information about selected buildings, such as schools, hospitals or homes for the elderly, to calculate the distribution patterns for each group of people over time.

Sampling ARG of multiple populations under complex configurations of subdivision and admixture.

PubMed

Carrieri, Anna Paola; Utro, Filippo; Parida, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Simulating complex evolution scenarios of multiple populations is an important task for answering many basic questions relating to population genomics. Apart from the population samples, the underlying Ancestral Recombinations Graph (ARG) is an additional important means in hypothesis checking and reconstruction studies. Furthermore, complex simulations require a plethora of interdependent parameters making even the scenario-specification highly non-trivial. We present an algorithm SimRA that simulates generic multiple population evolution model with admixture. It is based on random graphs that improve dramatically in time and space requirements of the classical algorithm of single populations.Using the underlying random graphs model, we also derive closed forms of expected values of the ARG characteristics i.e., height of the graph, number of recombinations, number of mutations and population diversity in terms of its defining parameters. This is crucial in aiding the user to specify meaningful parameters for the complex scenario simulations, not through trial-and-error based on raw compute power but intelligent parameter estimation. To the best of our knowledge this is the first time closed form expressions have been computed for the ARG properties. We show that the expected values closely match the empirical values through simulations.Finally, we demonstrate that SimRA produces the ARG in compact forms without compromising any accuracy. We demonstrate the compactness and accuracy through extensive experiments. SimRA (Simulation based on Random graph Algorithms) source, executable, user manual and sample input-output sets are available for downloading at: https://github.com/ComputationalGenomics/SimRA CONTACT: : parida@us.ibm.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Inferring the demographic history from DNA sequences: An importance sampling approach based on non-homogeneous processes.

PubMed

Ait Kaci Azzou, S; Larribe, F; Froda, S

2016-10-01

In Ait Kaci Azzou et al. (2015) we introduced an Importance Sampling (IS) approach for estimating the demographic history of a sample of DNA sequences, the skywis plot. More precisely, we proposed a new nonparametric estimate of a population size that changes over time. We showed on simulated data that the skywis plot can work well in typical situations where the effective population size does not undergo very steep changes. In this paper, we introduce an iterative procedure which extends the previous method and gives good estimates under such rapid variations. In the iterative calibrated skywis plot we approximate the effective population size by a piecewise constant function, whose values are re-estimated at each step. These piecewise constant functions are used to generate the waiting times of non homogeneous Poisson processes related to a coalescent process with mutation under a variable population size model. Moreover, the present IS procedure is based on a modified version of the Stephens and Donnelly (2000) proposal distribution. Finally, we apply the iterative calibrated skywis plot method to a simulated data set from a rapidly expanding exponential model, and we show that the method based on this new IS strategy correctly reconstructs the demographic history. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Participation Dynamics in Population-Based Longitudinal HIV Surveillance in Rural South Africa

PubMed Central

Larmarange, Joseph; Mossong, Joël; Bärnighausen, Till; Newell, Marie Louise

2015-01-01

Population-based HIV surveillance is crucial to inform understanding of the HIV pandemic and evaluate HIV interventions, but little is known about longitudinal participation patterns in such settings. We investigated the dynamics of longitudinal participation patterns in a high HIV prevalence surveillance setting in rural South Africa between 2003 and 2012, taking into account demographic dynamics. At any given survey round, 22,708 to 30,495 persons were eligible. Although the yearly participation rates were relatively modest (26% to 46%), cumulative rates increased substantially with multiple recruitment opportunities: 68% of eligible persons participated at least once, 48% at least twice and 31% at least three times after five survey rounds. We identified two types of study fatigue: at the individual level, contact and consent rates decreased with multiple recruitment opportunities and, at the population level, these rates also decreased over calendar time, independently of multiple recruitment opportunities. Using sequence analysis and hierarchical clustering, we identified three broad individual participation profiles: consenters (20%), switchers (43%) and refusers (37%). Men were over represented among refusers, women among consenters, and temporary non-residents among switchers. The specific subgroup of persons who were systemically not contacted or refusers constitutes a challenge for population-based surveillance and interventions. PMID:25875851

The potential value of sibling controls compared with population controls for association studies of lifestyle-related risk factors: an example from the Breast Cancer Family Registry.

PubMed

Milne, Roger L; John, Esther M; Knight, Julia A; Dite, Gillian S; Southey, Melissa C; Giles, Graham G; Apicella, Carmel; West, Dee W; Andrulis, Irene L; Whittemore, Alice S; Hopper, John L

2011-10-01

A previous Australian population-based breast cancer case-control study found indirect evidence that control participation, although high, was not random. We hypothesized that unaffected sisters may provide a more appropriate comparison group than unrelated population controls. Three population-based case-control-family studies of breast cancer in women of white European origin were carried out by the Australian, Ontario and Northern California sites of the Breast Cancer Family Registry. We compared risk factors between 3643 cases, 2444 of their unaffected sisters and 2877 population controls and conducted separate case-control analyses based on population and sister controls using unconditional multivariable logistic regression. Compared with sister controls, population controls were more highly educated, had an earlier age at menarche, fewer births, their first birth at a later age and their last birth more recently. The established breast cancer associations detected using sister controls, but not detected using population controls, were decreasing risk with each of later age at menarche, more births, younger age at first birth and greater time since last birth. Since participation of population controls might be unintentionally related to some risk factors, we hypothesize that sister controls could provide more valid relative risk estimates and be recruited at lower cost. Given declining study participation by population controls, this contention is highly relevant to epidemiologic research.

Temporal trends in prevalence, incidence, and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study.

PubMed

Jean, Sonia; Hudson, Marie; Gamache, Philippe; Bessette, Louis; Fortin, Paul R; Boire, Gilles; Bernatsky, Sasha

2017-12-01

Health administrative data are a potentially efficient resource to conduct population-based research and surveillance, including trends in incidence and mortality over time. Our objective was to explore time trends in incidence and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as well as estimating period prevalence. Our RA case definition was based on one or more hospitalizations with a RA diagnosis code, or three or more RA physician-billing codes, over 2 years, with at least one RA billing code by a rheumatologist, orthopedic surgeon, or internist. To identify incident cases, a "run-in" period of 5 years (1996-2000) was used to exclude prevalent cases. Crude age and sex-specific incidence rates were calculated (using data from 2001 to 2015), and sex-specific incidence rates were also standardized to the 2001 age structure of the Quebec population. We linked the RA cohort (both prevalent and incident patients) to the vital statistics registry, and standardized mortality rate ratios were generated. Negative binomial regression was used to test for linear change in standardized incidence rates and mortality ratios. The linear trends in standardized incidence rates did not show significant change over the study period. Mortality in RA was significantly higher than the general population and this remained true throughout the study period. Our prevalence estimate suggested 0.8% of the Quebec population may be affected by RA. RA incidence appeared relatively stable, and mortality was substantially higher in RA versus the general population and remained so over the study period. This suggests the need to optimize long-term RA outcomes.

Comparison of Highly Resolved Model-Based Exposure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Human exposure to air pollution in many studies is represented by ambient concentrations from space-time kriging of observed values. Space-time kriging techniques based on a limited number of ambient monitors may fail to capture the concentration from local sources. Further, because people spend more time indoors, using ambient concentration to represent exposure may cause error. To quantify the associated exposure error, we computed a series of six different hourly-based exposure metrics at 16,095 Census blocks of three Counties in North Carolina for CO, NOx, PM2.5, and elemental carbon (EC) during 2012. These metrics include ambient background concentration from space-time ordinary kriging (STOK), ambient on-road concentration from the Research LINE source dispersion model (R-LINE), a hybrid concentration combining STOK and R-LINE, and their associated indoor concentrations from an indoor infiltration mass balance model. Using a hybrid-based indoor concentration as the standard, the comparison showed that outdoor STOK metrics yielded large error at both population (67% to 93%) and individual level (average bias between −10% to 95%). For pollutants with significant contribution from on-road emission (EC and NOx), the on-road based indoor metric performs the best at the population level (error less than 52%). At the individual level, however, the STOK-based indoor concentration performs the best (average bias below 30%). For PM2.5, due to the relatively low co

Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

Cost-effectiveness of population based BRCA testing with varying Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry.

PubMed

Manchanda, Ranjit; Patel, Shreeya; Antoniou, Antonis C; Levy-Lahad, Ephrat; Turnbull, Clare; Evans, D Gareth; Hopper, John L; Macinnis, Robert J; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Legood, Rosa

2017-11-01

Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing has been found to be cost-effective compared with family history-based testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women were >30 years old with 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. However, individuals may have 1, 2, or 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents, and cost-effectiveness data are lacking at these lower BRCA prevalence estimates. We present an updated cost-effectiveness analysis of population BRCA1/BRCA2 testing for women with 1, 2, and 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. Decision analysis model. Lifetime costs and effects of population and family history-based testing were compared with the use of a decision analysis model. 56% BRCA carriers are missed by family history criteria alone. Analyses were conducted for United Kingdom and United States populations. Model parameters were obtained from the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial and published literature. Model parameters and BRCA population prevalence for individuals with 3, 2, or 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent were adjusted for the relative frequency of BRCA mutations in the Ashkenazi-Jewish and general populations. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for all Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios. Costs, along with outcomes, were discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon of the analysis is "life-time," and perspective is "payer." Probabilistic sensitivity analysis evaluated model uncertainty. Population testing for BRCA mutations is cost-saving in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (22-33 days life-gained) in the United Kingdom and 1, 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (12-26 days life-gained) in the United States populations, respectively. It is also extremely cost-effective in women in the United Kingdom with just 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £863 per quality-adjusted life-years and 15 days life gained. Results show that population-testing remains cost-effective at the £20,000-30000 per quality-adjusted life-years and $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-years willingness-to-pay thresholds for all 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios, with ≥95% simulations found to be cost-effective on probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Population-testing remains cost-effective in the absence of reduction in breast cancer risk from oophorectomy and at lower risk-reducing mastectomy (13%) or risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (20%) rates. Population testing for BRCA mutations with varying levels of Ashkenazi-Jewish ancestry is cost-effective in the United Kingdom and the United States. These results support population testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 1-4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent ancestry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validity of Administrative Data in Identifying Cancer-related Events in Adolescents and Young Adults: A Population-based Study Using the IMPACT Cohort.

PubMed

Gupta, Sumit; Nathan, Paul C; Baxter, Nancy N; Lau, Cindy; Daly, Corinne; Pole, Jason D

2018-06-01

Despite the importance of estimating population level cancer outcomes, most registries do not collect critical events such as relapse. Attempts to use health administrative data to identify these events have focused on older adults and have been mostly unsuccessful. We developed and tested administrative data-based algorithms in a population-based cohort of adolescents and young adults with cancer. We identified all Ontario adolescents and young adults 15-21 years old diagnosed with leukemia, lymphoma, sarcoma, or testicular cancer between 1992-2012. Chart abstraction determined the end of initial treatment (EOIT) date and subsequent cancer-related events (progression, relapse, second cancer). Linkage to population-based administrative databases identified fee and procedure codes indicating cancer treatment or palliative care. Algorithms determining EOIT based on a time interval free of treatment-associated codes, and new cancer-related events based on billing codes, were compared with chart-abstracted data. The cohort comprised 1404 patients. Time periods free of treatment-associated codes did not validly identify EOIT dates; using subsequent codes to identify new cancer events was thus associated with low sensitivity (56.2%). However, using administrative data codes that occurred after the EOIT date based on chart abstraction, the first cancer-related event was identified with excellent validity (sensitivity, 87.0%; specificity, 93.3%; positive predictive value, 81.5%; negative predictive value, 95.5%). Although administrative data alone did not validly identify cancer-related events, administrative data in combination with chart collected EOIT dates was associated with excellent validity. The collection of EOIT dates by cancer registries would significantly expand the potential of administrative data linkage to assess cancer outcomes.

A general method to determine sampling windows for nonlinear mixed effects models with an application to population pharmacokinetic studies.

PubMed

Foo, Lee Kien; McGree, James; Duffull, Stephen

2012-01-01

Optimal design methods have been proposed to determine the best sampling times when sparse blood sampling is required in clinical pharmacokinetic studies. However, the optimal blood sampling time points may not be feasible in clinical practice. Sampling windows, a time interval for blood sample collection, have been proposed to provide flexibility in blood sampling times while preserving efficient parameter estimation. Because of the complexity of the population pharmacokinetic models, which are generally nonlinear mixed effects models, there is no analytical solution available to determine sampling windows. We propose a method for determination of sampling windows based on MCMC sampling techniques. The proposed method attains a stationary distribution rapidly and provides time-sensitive windows around the optimal design points. The proposed method is applicable to determine sampling windows for any nonlinear mixed effects model although our work focuses on an application to population pharmacokinetic models. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-Based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horstman, Matthew F.; Xu, Yu-Lin

2008-01-01

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a potential source of man-made orbital debris. The possibility that SRMs (in addition to generating dust particles in the sub-millimeter range) may generate particles up to centimeters in size has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Returned surfaces from space do not have sufficient area or exposure time to provide a clear picture of the SRM millimeter and centimeter debris population. Currently, radar observation is probably the only way to collect data showing the debris contribution from SRMs. Such observation is used to sample the debris environment, but it is difficult to obtain accurate orbital elements for the detected debris objects. NASA has developed several models to describe the different orbital debris populations, based on assumed debris production mechanisms to create clouds of debris objects that can be propagated in time. The NASA model, LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris), functions as a time-tested debris model for most debris sources. However, the current LEGEND model does not include contributions from the SRM population. An SRM model has recently been developed by NASA, based on purely theoretical details of SRM production and known SRM launches, but verification with hard data is needed. Because the detections of individual SRM objects cannot be deterministically separated from the total debris observed by radar, the validation of the SRM model can only be done by combining it with the LEGEND breakup model and comparing it with data. By applying observational constraints, the degree of SRM slag contribution to the environment may be estimated. This serves as an observationally sound method from which to calibrate a purely theoretical model into something more realistic. For this study, we use the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. For the SRM debris, we use a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tailoff to produce and propagate the SRM debris clouds. Comparisons with radar data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the populations estimated from the data. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment and estimates of the production and contribution of SRM debris to the environment.

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis.

PubMed

Bordehore, Cesar; Fuentes, Verónica L; Segarra, Jose G; Acevedo, Melisa; Canepa, Antonio; Raventós, Josep

2015-01-01

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a "demographic inverse problem" and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

A population based study on the night-time effect in trauma care.

PubMed

Di Bartolomeo, Stefano; Marino, Massimiliano; Ventura, Chiara; Trombetti, Susanna; De Palma, Rossana

2014-10-01

The so-called off hour effect-that is, increased mortality for patients admitted outside normal working hours-has never been demonstrated in trauma care. However, most of the studies excluded transferred cases. Because these patients are a special challenge for trauma systems, we hypothesised that their processes of care could be more sensitive to the off hour effect. The study design was retrospective, cohort and population based. We compared the mortality of all patients by daytime and night-time admittance to hospitals in an Italian region, with 4.5 million inhabitants, following a major injury in 2011. Logistic regression was used, adjusted for demographics and severity of injury (TMPM-ICD9), and stratified by transfer status. 1940 major trauma cases were included; 105 were acutely transferred. Night-time admission had a significant pejorative effect on mortality in the adjusted analysis (OR=1.49; 95% CI 1.05 to 2.11). This effect was most evident in transferred cases (OR=3.71; 95% CI 1.11 to 12.43). The night-time effect in trauma care was demonstrated for the first time and was maximal in transferred cases. This may explain why it was not found in previous studies where these patients were mostly excluded. Also, the use of population based data-whereby patients not accessing trauma centre care and presumably receiving poorer care were included-may have contributed to the findings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Disaggregation of nation-wide dynamic population exposure estimates in The Netherlands: Applications of activity-based transport models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckx, Carolien; Int Panis, Luc; Uljee, Inge; Arentze, Theo; Janssens, Davy; Wets, Geert

Traditional exposure studies that link concentrations with population data do not always take into account the temporal and spatial variations in both concentrations and population density. In this paper we present an integrated model chain for the determination of nation-wide exposure estimates that incorporates temporally and spatially resolved information about people's location and activities (obtained from an activity-based transport model) and about ambient pollutant concentrations (obtained from a dispersion model). To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that such an integrated exercise was successfully carried out in a fully operational modus for all models under consideration. The evaluation of population level exposure in The Netherlands to NO 2 at different time-periods, locations, for different subpopulations (gender, socio-economic status) and during different activities (residential, work, transport, shopping) is chosen as a case-study to point out the new features of this methodology. Results demonstrate that, by neglecting people's travel behaviour, total average exposure to NO 2 will be underestimated by 4% and hourly exposure results can be underestimated by more than 30%. A more detailed exposure analysis reveals the intra-day variations in exposure estimates and the presence of large exposure differences between different activities (traffic > work > shopping > home) and between subpopulations (men > women, low socio-economic class > high socio-economic class). This kind of exposure analysis, disaggregated by activities or by subpopulations, per time of day, provides useful insight and information for scientific and policy purposes. It demonstrates that policy measures, aimed at reducing the overall (average) exposure concentration of the population may impact in a different way depending on the time of day or the subgroup considered. From a scientific point of view, this new approach can be used to reduce exposure misclassification.

Weekend sun protection and sunburn in Australia trends (1987-2002) and association with SunSmart television advertising.

PubMed

Dobbinson, Suzanne J; Wakefield, Melanie A; Jamsen, Kris M; Herd, Natalie L; Spittal, Matthew J; Lipscomb, John E; Hill, David J

2008-02-01

The Australian state of Victoria has run a population-based skin cancer prevention program called SunSmart since 1988, incorporating substantial public education efforts and environmental change strategies. Trends over 15 years in behavioral risk factors for skin cancer were examined in a population exposed to the SunSmart program. Whether outcomes were associated with extent of SunSmart television advertising was then assessed. In nine cross-sectional surveys from 1987 to 2002, 11,589 adults were interviewed by telephone about their sun exposure and sun protection during outdoor activities on summer weekends. Analyses completed in 2007 adjusted for ambient temperature and ultraviolet radiation. Sun protection and sunburn show substantial general improvement over time, but have stalled in recent years. Use of hats and sunscreens significantly increased over time and peaked during the mid to late 1990s, compared with the pre-SunSmart baseline. The mean proportion of unprotected skin was reduced and was lowest in the summer of 1997-1998. Summer sunburn incidence declined over time and was 9.1% in 2002, almost half baseline (OR=0.53; 95% CI=0.39-0.73). Higher exposure to SunSmart advertising in the 4 weeks before the interview increased: (1) preference for no tan, (2) hat and sunscreen use, and (3) proportion of body surface protected from the sun. The general improvement in sun-protective behaviors over time highlight that a population's sun-protective behaviors are amenable to change. Population-based prevention programs incorporating substantial television advertising campaigns into the mix of strategies may be highly effective in improving a population's sun-protective behaviors.

Fast half-sibling population reconstruction: theory and algorithms.

PubMed

Dexter, Daniel; Brown, Daniel G

2013-07-12

Kinship inference is the task of identifying genealogically related individuals. Kinship information is important for determining mating structures, notably in endangered populations. Although many solutions exist for reconstructing full sibling relationships, few exist for half-siblings. We consider the problem of determining whether a proposed half-sibling population reconstruction is valid under Mendelian inheritance assumptions. We show that this problem is NP-complete and provide a 0/1 integer program that identifies the minimum number of individuals that must be removed from a population in order for the reconstruction to become valid. We also present SibJoin, a heuristic-based clustering approach based on Mendelian genetics, which is strikingly fast. The software is available at http://github.com/ddexter/SibJoin.git+. Our SibJoin algorithm is reasonably accurate and thousands of times faster than existing algorithms. The heuristic is used to infer a half-sibling structure for a population which was, until recently, too large to evaluate.

Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models

PubMed Central

Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

2014-01-01

Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

Predicting recovery criteria for threatened and endangered plant species on the basis of past abundances and biological traits.

PubMed

Neel, Maile C; Che-Castaldo, Judy P

2013-04-01

Recovery plans for species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act are required to specify measurable criteria that can be used to determine when the species can be delisted. For the 642 listed endangered and threatened plant species that have recovery plans, we applied recursive partitioning methods to test whether the number of individuals or populations required for delisting can be predicted on the basis of distributional and biological traits, previous abundance at multiple time steps, or a combination of traits and previous abundances. We also tested listing status (threatened or endangered) and the year the recovery plan was written as predictors of recovery criteria. We analyzed separately recovery criteria that were stated as number of populations and as number of individuals (population-based and individual-based criteria, respectively). Previous abundances alone were relatively good predictors of population-based recovery criteria. Fewer populations, but a greater proportion of historically known populations, were required to delist species that had few populations at listing compared with species that had more populations at listing. Previous abundances were also good predictors of individual-based delisting criteria when models included both abundances and traits. The physiographic division in which the species occur was also a good predictor of individual-based criteria. Our results suggest managers are relying on previous abundances and patterns of decline as guidelines for setting recovery criteria. This may be justifiable in that previous abundances inform managers of the effects of both intrinsic traits and extrinsic threats that interact and determine extinction risk. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Selecting at-risk populations for sexually transmitted disease/HIV intervention studies.

PubMed

Wu, Zunyou; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Detels, Roger; Li, Li; Guan, Jihui; Liang, Guojun; Yap, Lorraine

2007-12-01

This paper describes one option to select populations for randomized, controlled trials (RCT). We used a popular opinion leader intervention in Fuzhou, China, to: (1) identify population selection criteria; (2) systematically examine the suitability of potential target populations and settings; (3) briefly evaluate risk and stability in the population; and (4) evaluate regional and organizational support among administrators and government officials. After comparing migrant villagers, truck drivers, factory workers, construction workers, and market employees in five regions of China, market employees in Fuzhou were identified as the optimal target population. Markets were the optimal sites for several reasons: (1) the population demonstrated a sufficient base rate of sexually transmitted diseases; (2) the population was stable over time; (3) a sufficient number of sites of manageable sizes were available; (4) stable networks existed; (5) local gatekeepers/stakeholders supported the intervention; (6) there was organizational capacity in the local health department to mount the intervention; (7) the demographic profile was similar across potential sites; and (8) the sites were sufficiently distanced to minimize contamination. Evaluating intervention efficacy in an RCT requires a time-consuming and rigorous process that systematically and routinely documents selection criteria, evaluates multiple populations, sites, and organizations for their appropriateness.

A comparison of regression methods for model selection in individual-based landscape genetic analysis

Treesearch

Andrew J. Shirk; Erin L. Landguth; Samuel A. Cushman

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic migration barriers fragment many populations and limit the ability of species to respond to climate-induced biome shifts. Conservation actions designed to conserve habitat connectivity and mitigate barriers are needed to unite fragmented populations into larger, more viable metapopulations, and to allow species to track their climate envelope over time....

The Influence of Cultural Immersion on Transcultural Self-Efficacy for Nursing Students at Private Faith-Based Baccalaureate Nursing Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schroeder, Pamela A.

2012-01-01

As multicultural populations throughout the world continually increase, complex challenges and health care disparities are being created. Nurses spend more time in patient care management than any other health care professionals. The need for nurses to provide culturally competent care for increasingly diverse patient populations is critical to…

Genetic linkage maps of white birches (Betula platyphylla Suk. and B. pendula Roth) based on RAPD and AFLP markers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Genetic linkage maps in plants are usually constructed using segregating populations obtained from crosses between two inbred lines such as rice, maize, or soybean. Such populations are generally not available for forest trees because of time constraints. But tree species have the property of outcro...

DEVELOPMENT OF EPIC GENETIC MARKERS AND THE UTILITY OF A MULTI-LOCUS, MULTI-TAXA PHYLOGEOGRAPHICAL APPROACH TO EXAMINING PATTERNS OF GENETIC DIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

Use of population genetic measures for assessing the structure of natural populations and the condition of biological resources has increased steadily since the 1970's. Traditionally, genetic diversity within and among geographic areas is assessed based on a one-time sampling of...

Blindness and low vision in Germany 1993-2009.

PubMed

Wolfram, Christian; Pfeiffer, Norbert

2012-02-01

To describe the development of the prevalence of blindness and low vision in the German population between 1993 and 2009 with respect to major demographic changes and to investigate how the prevalence of blindness would have developed without demographic aging. Investigation of the prevalence for blindness and low vision in the German population on the basis of the official German statistics for severely handicapped people and population statistics between 1993 and 2009. Age-specific prevalence rates and the prevalence based on a standardized population were calculated and the progression is demonstrated. The overall prevalence of blindness and low vision in Germany increased between 1993 and 2009 by 12.3% from 314,404 to 352,943 subjects. The absolute number of blind or visually impaired persons in the eldest group (75 years and above) has grown by 38.2% from 126,023 to 174,127 subjects. At the same time, both age-specific prevalence rates as well as the prevalence that was based on a standardized population decreased, matching more than 30,000 fewer cases of blindness in 2009 as compared to 1993. The increase in absolute prevalence numbers for blindness and low vision implies an increase in the ophthalmic workload. At the same time, the decrease in the age-specific and standardized prevalence indicates possible improvements in the overall eye health status of the population since 1993.

A Population-Based Assessment of the Health of Homeless Families in New York City, 2001–2003

PubMed Central

Bainbridge, Jay; Kennedy, Joseph; Bennani, Yussef; Agerton, Tracy; Marder, Dova; Forgione, Lisa; Faciano, Andrew; Thorpe, Lorna E.

2011-01-01

Objectives. We compared estimated population-based health outcomes for New York City (NYC) homeless families with NYC residents overall and in low-income neighborhoods. Methods. We matched a NYC family shelter user registry to mortality, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and blood lead test registries maintained by the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (2001–2003). Results. Overall adult age-adjusted death rates were similar among the 3 populations. HIV/AIDS and substance-use deaths were 3 and 5 times higher for homeless adults than for the general population; only substance-use deaths were higher than for low-income adults. Children who experienced homelessness appeared to be at an elevated risk of mortality (41.3 vs 22.5 per 100 000; P < .05). Seven in 10 adult and child deaths occurred outside shelter. Adult HIV/AIDS diagnosis rates were more than twice citywide rates but comparable with low-income rates, whereas tuberculosis rates were 3 times higher than in both populations. Homeless children had lower blood lead testing rates and a higher proportion of lead levels over 10 micrograms per deciliter than did both comparison populations. Conclusions. Morbidity and mortality levels were comparable between homeless and low-income adults; homeless children's slightly higher risk on some measures possibly reflects the impact of poverty and poor-quality, unstable housing. PMID:21233439

Phenotypic and Genetic Effects of Contrasting Ethanol Environments on Physiological and Developmental Traits in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Castañeda, Luis E.; Nespolo, Roberto F.

2013-01-01

A central problem in evolutionary physiology is to understand the relationship between energy metabolism and fitness-related traits. Most attempts to do so have been based on phenotypic correlations that are not informative for the evolutionary potential of natural populations. Here, we explored the effect of contrasting ethanol environments on physiological and developmental traits, their genetic (co)variances and genetic architecture in Drosophila melanogaster. Phenotypic and genetic parameters were estimated in two populations (San Fernando and Valdivia, Chile), using a half-sib family design where broods were split into ethanol-free and ethanol-supplemented conditions. Our findings show that metabolic rate, body mass and development times were sensitive (i.e., phenotypic plasticity) to ethanol conditions and dependent on population origin. Significant heritabilities were found for all traits, while significant genetic correlations were only found between larval and total development time and between development time and metabolic rate for flies of the San Fernando population developed in ethanol-free conditions. Posterior analyses indicated that the G matrices differed between ethanol conditions for the San Fernando population (mainly explained by differences in genetic (co)variances of developmental traits), whereas the Valdivia population exhibited similar G matrices between ethanol conditions. Our findings suggest that ethanol-free environment increases the energy available to reduce development time. Therefore, our results indicate that environmental ethanol could modify the process of energy allocation, which could have consequences on the evolutionary response of natural populations of D. melanogaster. PMID:23505567

Smoking reduces fecundity: a European multicenter study on infertility and subfecundity. The European Study Group on Infertility and Subfecundity.

PubMed

Bolumar, F; Olsen, J; Boldsen, J

1996-03-15

Several studies published within the past 10 years indicate that smoking reduces fecundity, but not all studies have found this effect, and smoking cessation is not used routinely in infertility treatment in Europe. The present study was designed to examine male and female smoking at the start of a couple's waiting time to a planned pregnancy. Two types of samples were used: population-based samples of women aged 25-44 years who were randomly selected in different countries from census registers and electoral rolls, in which the unit of analysis was the couple; and pregnancy-based samples of pregnant women (at least 20 weeks' pregnant) who were consecutively recruited during prenatal care visits, in which the unit of analysis was a pregnancy. More than 4,000 couples were included in each sample, and 10 different regions in Europe took part in data collection. The data were collected between August 1991 and February 1993 by personal interview in all population-based samples and in all but three regions of the pregnancy sample, where self-administered questionnaires were used. The results based on the population sample showed a remarkably coherent association between female smoking and subfecundity in each individual country and in all countries together, both with the first pregnancy (odds ratio (OR) = 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-2.1, at the upper level of exposure) and during the most recent waiting time to pregnancy (OR = 1.6, 95% CI 1.3-2.1). Results based on the pregnancy sample were similar (OR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.3). No significant association was found with male smoking (in the population sample, OR = 0.9, 95% CI 0.7-1.1 (first pregnancy) and OR = 1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.3 (most recent waiting time); in the pregnancy sample, OR = 0.9, 95% CI 0.7-1.1). The fecundity distribution among smokers appeared to be shifted toward longer waiting times without a change in the shape of the distribution. Women who have difficulty conceiving should try to stop smoking or to reduce their smoking to less than 10 cigarettes per day.

Population structure of humpback whales in the western and central South Pacific Ocean as determined by vocal exchange among populations.

PubMed

Garland, Ellen C; Goldizen, Anne W; Lilley, Matthew S; Rekdahl, Melinda L; Garrigue, Claire; Constantine, Rochelle; Hauser, Nan Daeschler; Poole, M Michael; Robbins, Jooke; Noad, Michael J

2015-08-01

For cetaceans, population structure is traditionally determined by molecular genetics or photographically identified individuals. Acoustic data, however, has provided information on movement and population structure with less effort and cost than traditional methods in an array of taxa. Male humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) produce a continually evolving vocal sexual display, or song, that is similar among all males in a population. The rapid cultural transmission (the transfer of information or behavior between conspecifics through social learning) of different versions of this display between distinct but interconnected populations in the western and central South Pacific region presents a unique way to investigate population structure based on the movement dynamics of a song (acoustic) display. Using 11 years of data, we investigated an acoustically based population structure for the region by comparing stereotyped song sequences among populations and years. We used the Levenshtein distance technique to group previously defined populations into (vocally based) clusters based on the overall similarity of their song display in space and time. We identified the following distinct vocal clusters: western cluster, 1 population off eastern Australia; central cluster, populations around New Caledonia, Tonga, and American Samoa; and eastern region, either a single cluster or 2 clusters, one around the Cook Islands and the other off French Polynesia. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that each breeding aggregation represents a distinct population (each occupied a single, terminal node) in a metapopulation, similar to the current understanding of population structure based on genetic and photo-identification studies. However, the central vocal cluster had higher levels of song-sharing among populations than the other clusters, indicating that levels of vocal connectivity varied within the region. Our results demonstrate the utility and value of using culturally transmitted vocal patterns as a way of defining connectivity to infer population structure. We suggest vocal patterns be incorporated by the International Whaling Commission in conjunction with traditional methods in the assessment of structure. © 2015, Society for Conservation Biology.

Quantitative Investigation of the Role of Intra-/Intercellular Dynamics in Bacterial Quorum Sensing.

PubMed

Leaman, Eric J; Geuther, Brian Q; Behkam, Bahareh

2018-04-20

Bacteria utilize diffusible signals to regulate population density-dependent coordinated gene expression in a process called quorum sensing (QS). While the intracellular regulatory mechanisms of QS are well-understood, the effect of spatiotemporal changes in the population configuration on the sensitivity and robustness of the QS response remains largely unexplored. Using a microfluidic device, we quantitatively characterized the emergent behavior of a population of swimming E. coli bacteria engineered with the lux QS system and a GFP reporter. We show that the QS activation time follows a power law with respect to bacterial population density, but this trend is disrupted significantly by microscale variations in population configuration and genetic circuit noise. We then developed a computational model that integrates population dynamics with genetic circuit dynamics to enable accurate (less than 7% error) quantitation of the bacterial QS activation time. Through modeling and experimental analyses, we show that changes in spatial configuration of swimming bacteria can drastically alter the QS activation time, by up to 22%. The integrative model developed herein also enables examination of the performance robustness of synthetic circuits with respect to growth rate, circuit sensitivity, and the population's initial size and spatial structure. Our framework facilitates quantitative tuning of microbial systems performance through rational engineering of synthetic ribosomal binding sites. We have demonstrated this through modulation of QS activation time over an order of magnitude. Altogether, we conclude that predictive engineering of QS-based bacterial systems requires not only the precise temporal modulation of gene expression (intracellular dynamics) but also accounting for the spatiotemporal changes in population configuration (intercellular dynamics).

Socio-demographic and behavioral variation in barriers to leisure-time physical activity.

PubMed

Borodulin, Katja; Sipilä, Noora; Rahkonen, Ossi; Leino-Arjas, Päivi; Kestilä, Laura; Jousilahti, Pekka; Prättälä, Ritva

2016-02-01

We examined the socio-demographic and behavioral determinants of perceived barriers to leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) in a population-based sample of working-aged adults. Data comprised the National FINRISK 2002 Study, a population-based health examination study. Analyses were restricted to those aged 25-64 years and who perceived that their amount of LTPA did not reach sufficient levels. They reported barriers to LTPA, defined as a lack of time, motivation and lack of companionship to be active with, as well as high expenses. Age, education, household income, employment status, family type, physical activity, smoking and body mass index (BMI) were included as explanatory variables. Lack of time was the most frequent barrier. Each barrier was explained by a different set of factors that also varied between genders. The strongest and most systematic associations with the barriers were found for age, employment status and family type. Lack of time was less often reported as a barrier among the unemployed, singles without children and older people. Lacking motivation as a barrier was most common among singles without children. High expenses as a barrier was more often reported by the unemployed, and less often reported in the highest income group. When considering actions to promote LTPA, there is not one single solution, because the perceived barriers vary by population subgroups. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

First experiences in the implementation of biometric technology to link data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems with health facility data

PubMed Central

Serwaa-Bonsu, Adwoa; Herbst, Abraham J.; Reniers, Georges; Ijaa, Wilfred; Clark, Benjamin; Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa; Sankoh, Osman

2010-01-01

Background In developing countries, Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) provide a framework for tracking demographic and health dynamics over time in a defined geographical area. Many HDSSs co-exist with facility-based data sources in the form of Health Management Information Systems (HMIS). Integrating both data sources through reliable record linkage could provide both numerator and denominator populations to estimate disease prevalence and incidence rates in the population and enable determination of accurate health service coverage. Objective To measure the acceptability and performance of fingerprint biometrics to identify individuals in demographic surveillance populations and those attending health care facilities serving the surveillance populations. Methodology Two HDSS sites used fingerprint biometrics for patient and/or surveillance population participant identification. The proportion of individuals for whom a fingerprint could be successfully enrolled were characterised in terms of age and sex. Results Adult (18–65 years) fingerprint enrolment rates varied between 94.1% (95% CI 93.6–94.5) for facility-based fingerprint data collection at the Africa Centre site to 96.7% (95% CI 95.9–97.6) for population-based fingerprint data collection at the Agincourt site. Fingerprint enrolment rates in children under 1 year old (Africa Centre site) were only 55.1% (95% CI 52.7–57.4). By age 5, child fingerprint enrolment rates were comparable to those of adults. Conclusion This work demonstrates the feasibility of fingerprint-based individual identification for population-based research in developing countries. Record linkage between demographic surveillance population databases and health care facility data based on biometric identification systems would allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of population health, including the ability to study health service utilisation from a population perspective, rather than the more restrictive health service perspective. PMID:20200659

Sequential Insertion Heuristic with Adaptive Bee Colony Optimisation Algorithm for Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows

PubMed Central

Jawarneh, Sana; Abdullah, Salwani

2015-01-01

This paper presents a bee colony optimisation (BCO) algorithm to tackle the vehicle routing problem with time window (VRPTW). The VRPTW involves recovering an ideal set of routes for a fleet of vehicles serving a defined number of customers. The BCO algorithm is a population-based algorithm that mimics the social communication patterns of honeybees in solving problems. The performance of the BCO algorithm is dependent on its parameters, so the online (self-adaptive) parameter tuning strategy is used to improve its effectiveness and robustness. Compared with the basic BCO, the adaptive BCO performs better. Diversification is crucial to the performance of the population-based algorithm, but the initial population in the BCO algorithm is generated using a greedy heuristic, which has insufficient diversification. Therefore the ways in which the sequential insertion heuristic (SIH) for the initial population drives the population toward improved solutions are examined. Experimental comparisons indicate that the proposed adaptive BCO-SIH algorithm works well across all instances and is able to obtain 11 best results in comparison with the best-known results in the literature when tested on Solomon’s 56 VRPTW 100 customer instances. Also, a statistical test shows that there is a significant difference between the results. PMID:26132158

Population pharmacokinetics of busulfan in pediatric and young adult patients undergoing hematopoietic cell transplant: a model-based dosing algorithm for personalized therapy and implementation into routine clinical use.

PubMed

Long-Boyle, Janel R; Savic, Rada; Yan, Shirley; Bartelink, Imke; Musick, Lisa; French, Deborah; Law, Jason; Horn, Biljana; Cowan, Morton J; Dvorak, Christopher C

2015-04-01

Population pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of busulfan in children have shown that individualized model-based algorithms provide improved targeted busulfan therapy when compared with conventional dose guidelines. The adoption of population PK models into routine clinical practice has been hampered by the tendency of pharmacologists to develop complex models too impractical for clinicians to use. The authors aimed to develop a population PK model for busulfan in children that can reliably achieve therapeutic exposure (concentration at steady state) and implement a simple model-based tool for the initial dosing of busulfan in children undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation. Model development was conducted using retrospective data available in 90 pediatric and young adult patients who had undergone hematopoietic cell transplantation with busulfan conditioning. Busulfan drug levels and potential covariates influencing drug exposure were analyzed using the nonlinear mixed effects modeling software, NONMEM. The final population PK model was implemented into a clinician-friendly Microsoft Excel-based tool and used to recommend initial doses of busulfan in a group of 21 pediatric patients prospectively dosed based on the population PK model. Modeling of busulfan time-concentration data indicates that busulfan clearance displays nonlinearity in children, decreasing up to approximately 20% between the concentrations of 250-2000 ng/mL. Important patient-specific covariates found to significantly impact busulfan clearance were actual body weight and age. The percentage of individuals achieving a therapeutic concentration at steady state was significantly higher in subjects receiving initial doses based on the population PK model (81%) than in historical controls dosed on conventional guidelines (52%) (P = 0.02). When compared with the conventional dosing guidelines, the model-based algorithm demonstrates significant improvement for providing targeted busulfan therapy in children and young adults.

Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Annabel L

2018-01-01

Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

2010-05-01

Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

Genetic demographic networks: Mathematical model and applications.

PubMed

Kimmel, Marek; Wojdyła, Tomasz

2016-10-01

Recent improvement in the quality of genetic data obtained from extinct human populations and their ancestors encourages searching for answers to basic questions regarding human population history. The most common and successful are model-based approaches, in which genetic data are compared to the data obtained from the assumed demography model. Using such approach, it is possible to either validate or adjust assumed demography. Model fit to data can be obtained based on reverse-time coalescent simulations or forward-time simulations. In this paper we introduce a computational method based on mathematical equation that allows obtaining joint distributions of pairs of individuals under a specified demography model, each of them characterized by a genetic variant at a chosen locus. The two individuals are randomly sampled from either the same or two different populations. The model assumes three types of demographic events (split, merge and migration). Populations evolve according to the time-continuous Moran model with drift and Markov-process mutation. This latter process is described by the Lyapunov-type equation introduced by O'Brien and generalized in our previous works. Application of this equation constitutes an original contribution. In the result section of the paper we present sample applications of our model to both simulated and literature-based demographies. Among other we include a study of the Slavs-Balts-Finns genetic relationship, in which we model split and migrations between the Balts and Slavs. We also include another example that involves the migration rates between farmers and hunters-gatherers, based on modern and ancient DNA samples. This latter process was previously studied using coalescent simulations. Our results are in general agreement with the previous method, which provides validation of our approach. Although our model is not an alternative to simulation methods in the practical sense, it provides an algorithm to compute pairwise distributions of alleles, in the case of haploid non-recombining loci such as mitochondrial and Y-chromosome loci in humans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Second cancers and late mortality in Australian children treated by allogeneic HSCT for haematological malignancy.

PubMed

Nelson, A S; Ashton, L J; Vajdic, C M; Le Marsney, R E; Daniels, B; Nivison-Smith, I; Wilcox, L; Dodds, A J; O'Brien, T A

2015-02-01

We examined risk of second cancer and late mortality in a population-based Australian cohort of 717 pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients treated for a malignant disease during 1982-2007. Record linkage with population-based death and cancer registries identified 17 second cancers at a median of 7.9 years post HSCT; thyroid cancer being the most common malignancy (n=8). The cumulative incidence of second cancer was 8.7% at follow-up, and second cancers occurred 20 times more often than in the general population (standardised incidence ratio 20.3, 95% confidence interval (CI)=12.6-32.7). Transplantation using radiation-based conditioning regimens was associated with increased second cancer risk. A total of 367 patients survived for at least 2 years post HSCT and of these 44 (12%) died at a median of 3.1 years after HSCT. Relapse was the most common cause of late mortality (n=32). The cumulative incidence of late mortality was 14.7%. The observed rate of late mortality was 36 times greater than in the matched general population (standardised mortality ratio 35.9, 95% CI=26.7-48.3). Recipients who relapsed or who had radiation-based conditioning regimens were at higher risk of late mortality. Second cancers and late mortality continue to be a risk for pediatric patients undergoing HSCT, and these results highlight the need for effective screening and survivorship programs.

The Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV test is a clinically validated human papillomavirus assay for triage in the referral population and use in primary cervical cancer screening in women 30 years and older: a review of validation studies.

PubMed

Poljak, Mario; Oštrbenk, Anja

2013-01-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing has become an essential part of current clinical practice in the management of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions. We reviewed the most important validation studies of a next-generation real-time polymerase chain reaction-based assay, the RealTime High Risk HPV test (RealTime)(Abbott Molecular, Des Plaines, IL, USA), for triage in referral population settings and for use in primary cervical cancer screening in women 30 years and older published in peer-reviewed journals from 2009 to 2013. RealTime is designed to detect 14 high-risk HPV genotypes with concurrent distinction of HPV-16 and HPV-18 from 12 other HPV genotypes. The test was launched on the European market in January 2009 and is currently used in many laboratories worldwide for routine detection of HPV. We concisely reviewed validation studies of a next-generation real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assay: the Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV test. Eight validation studies of RealTime in referral settings showed its consistently high absolute clinical sensitivity for both CIN2+ (range 88.3-100%) and CIN3+ (range 93.0-100%), as well as comparative clinical sensitivity relative to the currently most widely used HPV test: the Qiagen/Digene Hybrid Capture 2 HPV DNA Test (HC2). Due to the significantly different composition of the referral populations, RealTime absolute clinical specificity for CIN2+ and CIN3+ varied greatly across studies, but was comparable relative to HC2. Four validation studies of RealTime performance in cervical cancer screening settings showed its consistently high absolute clinical sensitivity for both CIN2+ and CIN3+, as well as comparative clinical sensitivity and specificity relative to HC2 and GP5+/6+ PCR. RealTime has been extensively evaluated in the last 4 years. RealTime can be considered clinically validated for triage in referral population settings and for use in primary cervical cancer screening in women 30 years and older.

The use of genetics for the management of a recovering population: temporal assessment of migratory peregrine falcons in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Jeff A.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Sage, George K.; Burnham, Kurt K.; Brown, Joseph W.; Maechtle, Tom L.; Seegar, William S.; Yates, Michael A.; Anderson, Bud; Mindell, David P.

2010-01-01

Background:Our ability to monitor populations or species that were once threatened or endangered and in the process of recovery is enhanced by using genetic methods to assess overall population stability and size over time. This can be accomplished most directly by obtaining genetic measures from temporally-spaced samples that reflect the overall stability of the population as given by changes in genetic diversity levels (allelic richness and heterozygosity), degree of population differentiation (FST and DEST), and effective population size (Ne). The primary goal of any recovery effort is to produce a long-term self-sustaining population, and these measures provide a metric by which we can gauge our progress and help make important management decisions. Methodology/Principal Findings:The peregrine falcon in North America (Falco peregrinus tundrius and anatum) was delisted in 1994 and 1999, respectively, and its abundance will be monitored by the species Recovery Team every three years until 2015. Although the United States Fish and Wildlife Service makes a distinction between tundrius and anatum subspecies, our genetic results based on eleven microsatellite loci, including those from Brown et al. (2007), suggest no differentiation and warrant delineation of a subspecies in its northern latitudinal distribution from Alaska through Canada into Greenland. Using temporal samples collected at Padre Island, Texas during migration (seven temporal time periods between 1985-2007), no significant differences in genetic diversity or significant population differentiation in allele frequencies between time periods were observed and were indistinguishable from those obtained from tundrius/anatum breeding locations throughout their northern distribution. Estimates of harmonic mean Ne were variable and imprecise, but always greater than 500 when employing multiple temporal genetic methods. These results, including those from simulations to assess the power of each method to estimate Ne, suggest a stable population consistent with data from field-based monitoring indicating that this species is stable or continuing to increase in abundance. Therefore, historic and continuing efforts to prevent the extinction of the peregrine falcon in North America appear successful, further highlighting the importance of archiving samples for continual assessment of population recovery and long-term viability.

Phenotypically heterogeneous populations in spatially heterogeneous environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Pintu; Klumpp, Stefan

2014-03-01

The spatial expansion of a population in a nonuniform environment may benefit from phenotypic heterogeneity with interconverting subpopulations using different survival strategies. We analyze the crossing of an antibiotic-containing environment by a bacterial population consisting of rapidly growing normal cells and slow-growing, but antibiotic-tolerant persister cells. The dynamics of crossing is characterized by mean first arrival times and is found to be surprisingly complex. It displays three distinct regimes with different scaling behavior that can be understood based on an analytical approximation. Our results suggest that a phenotypically heterogeneous population has a fitness advantage in nonuniform environments and can spread more rapidly than a homogeneous population.

Cost effectiveness of population based BRCA1 founder mutation testing in Sephardi Jewish women.

PubMed

Patel, Shreeya; Legood, Rosa; Evans, D Gareth; Turnbull, Clare; Antoniou, Antonis C; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Manchanda, Ranjit

2018-04-01

Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 founder-mutation testing has been demonstrated as cost effective compared with family history based testing in Ashkenazi Jewish women. However, only 1 of the 3 Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA1/BRCA2 founder mutations (185delAG[c.68_69delAG]), 5382insC[c.5266dupC]), and 6174delT[c.5946delT]) is found in the Sephardi Jewish population (185delAG[c.68_69delAG]), and the overall prevalence of BRCA mutations in the Sephardi Jewish population is accordingly lower (0.7% compared with 2.5% in the Ashkenazi Jewish population). Cost-effectiveness analyses of BRCA testing have not previously been performed at these lower BRCA prevalence levels seen in the Sephardi Jewish population. Here we present a cost-effectiveness analysis for UK and US populations comparing population testing with clinical criteria/family history-based testing in Sephardi Jewish women. A Markov model was built comparing the lifetime costs and effects of population-based BRCA1 testing, with testing using family history-based clinical criteria in Sephardi Jewish women aged ≥30 years. BRCA1 carriers identified were offered magnetic resonance imaging/mammograms and risk-reducing surgery. Costs are reported at 2015 prices. Outcomes include breast cancer, ovarian cancer, and excess deaths from heart disease. All costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon is lifetime, and perspective is payer. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year was calculated. Parameter uncertainty was evaluated through 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Population testing resulted in gain in life expectancy of 12 months (quality-adjusted life-year = 1.00). The baseline discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for UK population-based testing was £67.04/quality-adjusted life-year and for US population was $308.42/quality-adjusted life-year. Results were robust in the 1-way sensitivity analysis. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed 100% of simulations were cost effective at £20,000/quality-adjusted life-year UK and the $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year US willingness-to-pay thresholds. Scenario analysis showed that population testing remains cost effective in UK and US populations, even if premenopausal oophorectomy does not reduce breast cancer risk or if hormone replacement therapy compliance is nil. Population-based BRCA1 testing is highly cost effective compared with clinical criteria-driven approach in Sephardi Jewish women. This supports changing the paradigm to population-based BRCA testing in the Jewish population, regardless of Ashkenazi/Sephardi ancestry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model-based analyses reveal insular population diversification and cryptic frog species in the Ischnocnema parva complex in the Atlantic forest of Brazil.

PubMed

Gehara, Marcelo; Barth, Adriane; Oliveira, Eliana Faria de; Costa, Marco Antonio; Haddad, Célio Fernando Baptista; Vences, Miguel

2017-07-01

The Atlantic Forest (AF) of Brazil has long been recognized as a biodiversity conservation hotspot. Despite decades of studies the species inventory of this biome continues to increase with the discovery of cryptic diversity and the description of new species. Different diversification mechanisms have been proposed to explain the diversity in the region, including models of forest dynamics, barriers to gene flow and dispersal. Also, sea level change is thought to have influenced coastal diversification and isolated populations on continental islands. However, the timing and mode of diversification of insular populations in the AF region were rarely investigated. Here, we analyze the phylogeography and species diversity of the small-sized direct-developing frog Ischnocnema parva. These frogs are independent from water bodies but dependent on forest cover and high humidity, and provide good models to understand forest dynamics and insular diversification. Our analysis was based on DNA sequences for one mitochondrial and four nuclear genes of 71 samples from 18 localities including two islands, São Sebastião, municipality of Ilhabela, and Mar Virado, municipality of Ubatuba, both in the state of São Paulo. We use molecular taxonomic methods to show that I. parva is composed of six independently evolving lineages, with the nominal I. parva likely endemic to the type locality. The time-calibrated species tree shows that these lineages have diverged in the Pliocene and Pleistocene, suggesting the persistence of micro-refuges of forest in the AF. For the two insular populations we used approximate Bayesian computation to test different diversification hypotheses. Our findings support isolation with migration for São Sebastião population, with ∼1Mya divergence time, and isolation without migration for Mar Virado population, with ∼13Kya divergence time, suggesting a combination of different processes for diversification on AF islands. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Using Information and Communications Technology in a National Population-Based Survey: The Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey 2012

PubMed Central

Ojwang’, James K.; Lee, Veronica C.; Waruru, Anthony; Ssempijja, Victor; Ng’ang’a, John G.; Wakhutu, Brian E.; Kandege, Nicholas O.; Koske, Danson K.; Kamiru, Samuel M.; Omondi, Kenneth O.; Kakinyi, Mutua; Kim, Andrea A.; Oluoch, Tom

2016-01-01

Background With improvements in technology, electronic data capture (EDC) for large surveys is feasible. EDC offers benefits over traditional paper-based data collection, including more accurate data, greater completeness of data, and decreased data cleaning burden. Methods The second Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS 2012) was a population-based survey of persons aged 18 months to 64 years. A software application was designed to capture the interview, specimen collection, and home-based testing and counseling data. The application included: interview translations for local languages; options for single, multiple, and fill-in responses; and automated participant eligibility determination. Data quality checks were programmed to automate skip patterns and prohibit outlier responses. A data sharing architecture was developed to transmit the data in realtime from the field to a central server over a virtual private network. Results KAIS 2012 was conducted between October 2012 and February 2013. Overall, 68,202 records for the interviews, specimen collection, and home-based testing and counseling were entered into the application. Challenges arose during implementation, including poor connectivity and a systems malfunction that created duplicate records, which prevented timely data transmission to the central server. Data cleaning was minimal given the data quality control measures. Conclusions KAIS 2012 demonstrated the feasibility of using EDC in a population-based survey. The benefits of EDC were apparent in data quality and minimal time needed for data cleaning. Several important lessons were learned, such as the time and monetary investment required before survey implementation, the importance of continuous application testing, and contingency plans for data transmission due to connectivity challenges. PMID:24732816

Use of intraspecific variation in thermal responses for estimating an elevational cline in the timing of cold hardening in a sub-boreal conifer.

PubMed

Ishizuka, W; Ono, K; Hara, T; Goto, S

2015-01-01

To avoid winter frost damage, evergreen coniferous species develop cold hardiness with suitable phenology for the local climate regime. Along the elevational gradient, a genetic cline in autumn phenology is often recognised among coniferous populations, but further quantification of evolutionary adaptation related to the local environment and its responsible signals generating the phenological variation are poorly understood. We evaluated the timing of cold hardening among populations of Abies sachalinensis, based on time series freezing tests using trees derived from four seed source populations × three planting sites. Furthermore, we constructed a model to estimate the development of hardening from field temperatures and the intraspecific variations occurring during this process. An elevational cline was detected such that high-elevation populations developed cold hardiness earlier than low-elevation populations, representing significant genetic control. Because development occurred earlier at high-elevation planting sites, the genetic trend across elevation overlapped with the environmental trend. Based on the trade-off between later hardening to lengthen the active growth period and earlier hardening to avoid frost damage, this genetic cline would be adaptive to the local climate. Our modelling approach estimated intraspecific variation in two model components: the threshold temperature, which was the criterion for determining whether the trees accumulated the thermal value, and the chilling requirement for trees to achieve adequate cold hardiness. A higher threshold temperature and a lower chilling requirement could be responsible for the earlier phenology of the high-elevation population. These thermal responses may be one of the important factors driving the elevation-dependent adaptation of A. sachalinensis. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Noise activated bistable sensor based on chaotic system with output defined by temporal coding and firing rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korneta, Wojciech; Gomes, Iacyel

2017-11-01

Traditional bistable sensors use external bias signal to drive its response between states and their detection strategy is based on the output power spectral density or the residence time difference (RTD) in two sensor states. Recently, the noise activated nonlinear dynamic sensors driven only by noise based on RTD technique have been proposed. Here, we present experimental results of dc voltage measurements by noise-driven bistable sensor based on electronic Chua's circuit operating in a chaotic regime where two single scroll attractors coexist. The output of the sensor is quantified by the proportion of the time the sensor stays in one state to the total observation time and by the spike-count rate with spikes defined by crossings between attractors. The relationship between the stimuli and particular observable for different noise intensities is obtained, the usefulness of each coding scheme is discussed, and the optimal noise intensity for detection is indicated. It is shown that the obtained relationship is the same for any observation time when population coding is used. The optimal time window for both detection and the number of units in population coding is found. Our results may be useful for analyses and understanding of the neural activity and in designing bistable storage elements at length scales where thermal fluctuations drastically increase and the effect of noise must be taken into consideration.

Click rates and silences of sperm whales at Kaikoura, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, Lesley A.; Dawson, Stephen M.; Jaquet, Nathalie

2005-07-01

Analysis of the usual click rates of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) at Kaikoura, New Zealand, confirms the potential for assessing abundance via ``click counting.'' Usual click rates over three dive cycles each of three photographically identified whales showed that 5 min averages of usual click rate did not differ significantly within dives, among dives of the same whale or among whales. Over the nine dives (n=13 728 clicks) mean usual click rate was 1.272 clicks s-1 (95% CI=0.151). On average, individual sperm whales at Kaikoura spent 60% of their time usual clicking in winter and in summer. There was no evidence that whale identity or stage of the dive recorded affects significantly the percentage of time spent usual clicking. Differences in vocal behavior among sperm whale populations worldwide indicate that estimates of abundance that are based on click rates need to based on data from the population of interest, rather than from another population or some global average.

Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, K.T.; Arntzen, J.W.; Burke, T.

1997-01-01

Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (N(b)) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of N(b) (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were ??? 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N(b) and N(e) based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

Remote Safety Monitoring for Elderly Persons Based on Omni-Vision Analysis

PubMed Central

Xiang, Yun; Tang, Yi-ping; Ma, Bao-qing; Yan, Hang-chen; Jiang, Jun; Tian, Xu-yuan

2015-01-01

Remote monitoring service for elderly persons is important as the aged populations in most developed countries continue growing. To monitor the safety and health of the elderly population, we propose a novel omni-directional vision sensor based system, which can detect and track object motion, recognize human posture, and analyze human behavior automatically. In this work, we have made the following contributions: (1) we develop a remote safety monitoring system which can provide real-time and automatic health care for the elderly persons and (2) we design a novel motion history or energy images based algorithm for motion object tracking. Our system can accurately and efficiently collect, analyze, and transfer elderly activity information and provide health care in real-time. Experimental results show that our technique can improve the data analysis efficiency by 58.5% for object tracking. Moreover, for the human posture recognition application, the success rate can reach 98.6% on average. PMID:25978761

Impact of Participation in TimeSlips, a Creative Group-Based Storytelling Program, on Medical Student Attitudes Toward Persons With Dementia: A Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

George, Daniel R.; Stuckey, Heather L.; Dillon, Caroline F.; Whitehead, Megan M.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate whether medical student participation in TimeSlips (TS), a creative group-based storytelling program, with persons affected by dementia would improve student attitudes toward this patient population. Design and Methods: Fifteen fourth-year medical students from Penn State College of Medicine participated in a month-long regimen of TS sessions at a retirement community. Student course evaluations were analyzed at the conclusion of the program to examine perceived qualitative changes in attitude. Findings: Qualitative data revealed insights into the manner in which student attitudes toward a geriatric patient population became more positive. Implications: This is the first known pilot study to suggest that participation in a creative group-based storytelling program might improve medical student attitudes toward persons with dementia. PMID:21665958

Exposure to childhood adversity and deficits in emotion recognition: results from a large, population-based sample.

PubMed

Dunn, Erin C; Crawford, Katherine M; Soare, Thomas W; Button, Katherine S; Raffeld, Miriam R; Smith, Andrew D A C; Penton-Voak, Ian S; Munafò, Marcus R

2018-03-07

Emotion recognition skills are essential for social communication. Deficits in these skills have been implicated in mental disorders. Prior studies of clinical and high-risk samples have consistently shown that children exposed to adversity are more likely than their unexposed peers to have emotion recognition skills deficits. However, only one population-based study has examined this association. We analyzed data from children participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a prospective birth cohort (n = 6,506). We examined the association between eight adversities, assessed repeatedly from birth to age 8 (caregiver physical or emotional abuse; sexual or physical abuse; maternal psychopathology; one adult in the household; family instability; financial stress; parent legal problems; neighborhood disadvantage) and the ability to recognize facial displays of emotion measured using the faces subtest of the Diagnostic Assessment of Non-Verbal Accuracy (DANVA) at age 8.5 years. In addition to examining the role of exposure (vs. nonexposure) to each type of adversity, we also evaluated the role of the timing, duration, and recency of each adversity using a Least Angle Regression variable selection procedure. Over three-quarters of the sample experienced at least one adversity. We found no evidence to support an association between emotion recognition deficits and previous exposure to adversity, either in terms of total lifetime exposure, timing, duration, or recency, or when stratifying by sex. Results from the largest population-based sample suggest that even extreme forms of adversity are unrelated to emotion recognition deficits as measured by the DANVA, suggesting the possible immutability of emotion recognition in the general population. These findings emphasize the importance of population-based studies to generate generalizable results. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Some socio-economic aspects of population growth in the USSR.

PubMed

Simchera, V

1974-01-01

This summarizes population trends in the U.S.S.R. since the early 19 00's. On August 9, 1973, the population topped 250 million, almost precisely double that of Russia at the time of the 1st general census in 1897. Since 1922 it had increased by more than 84%. Russia has suffered more population loss in wars than any other country in modern times. The First World War, the Civil War, and the Second World War took a toll of more than 30 million, more than 20 million during the Second World War alone. The extent of these loses can be judged from the following: between 1897 and 1913 the population of Russia increased at the rate of 1.55% per annum or 34.6 million; if this had continued the population would have been at least 182.8 million by the end of 1922. As it was, the population was 136.1 million by 1922 and the hypothetical 182.8 million was not reached until 1952. More than 4/5 of today's population have been born since the October Revolution. Only 43 million were born before the revolution and only 7.5 were born in the last century. The economic base has grown much more rapidly than the population. For the period 1940-1972 the population increased 1.27 times, national income 9.51 times, fixed assets, 8.76 times, industrial production, 13.65 times, agricultural output, 2.14 times, and capital investment 14.52 times. The birthrate has been falling since World War 1 but total population growth has increased steadily. Birthrates have declined from 45.5/1000 in 1913 to 17.8/1000 in 1972 and a slight upturn is seen. It is expected that the birthrate will continue to increase slightly, then stabilize. Much of the population increase has come from significantly reduced mortality rates. 1st and 2nd children now account for 71% of all births. Family allowances, child care, free health care, and other social benefits encourage births while high employment levels for women, a shortage of men in the marriageable age ranges, and late marriages tend to depress the birthrate. The shortage of men is directly the result of the losses during World War 2. Employment opportunities have changed dramatically. The country has gone from a primarily agricultural nation to one in which 80% of the people are working class wage or salary earners. The current problem is closing the urban-rural gap and equalizing population density. 3/5 of the people are town-dwellers. To fight declining population in the villages and in the areas of Siberia and the Far East, new towns and new industrial and cultural centers are being established such as Bratsk, Ust-Ilim, Norilsk, and others.

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.

PubMed

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.

Detecting and modelling delayed density-dependence in abundance time series of a small mammal (Didelphis aurita)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigatti, E.; Vieira, M. V.; Kajin, M.; Almeida, P. J. A. L.; de Menezes, M. A.; Cerqueira, R.

2016-02-01

We study the population size time series of a Neotropical small mammal with the intent of detecting and modelling population regulation processes generated by density-dependent factors and their possible delayed effects. The application of analysis tools based on principles of statistical generality are nowadays a common practice for describing these phenomena, but, in general, they are more capable of generating clear diagnosis rather than granting valuable modelling. For this reason, in our approach, we detect the principal temporal structures on the bases of different correlation measures, and from these results we build an ad-hoc minimalist autoregressive model that incorporates the main drivers of the dynamics. Surprisingly our model is capable of reproducing very well the time patterns of the empirical series and, for the first time, clearly outlines the importance of the time of attaining sexual maturity as a central temporal scale for the dynamics of this species. In fact, an important advantage of this analysis scheme is that all the model parameters are directly biologically interpretable and potentially measurable, allowing a consistency check between model outputs and independent measurements.

A framework for the use of agent based modeling to simulate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Simulation of human behavior in exposure modeling is a complex task. Traditionally, inter-individual variation in human activity has been modeled by drawing from a pool of single day time-activity diaries such as the US EPA Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD). Here, an agent-based model (ABM) is used to simulate population distributions of longitudinal patterns of four macro activities (sleeping, eating, working, and commuting) in populations of adults over a period of one year. In this ABM, an individual is modeled as an agent whose movement through time and space is determined by a set of decision rules. The rules are based on the agent having time-varying “needs” that are satisfied by performing actions. Needs are modeled as increasing over time, and taking an action reduces the need. Need-satisfying actions include sleeping (meeting the need for rest), eating (meeting the need for food), and commuting/working (meeting the need for income). Every time an action is completed, the model determines the next action the agent will take based on the magnitude of each of the agent’s needs at that point in time. Different activities advertise their ability to satisfy various needs of the agent (such as food to eat or sleeping in a bed or on a couch). The model then chooses the activity that satisfies the greatest of the agent’s needs. When multiple actions could address a need, the model will choose the most effective of the actions (bed over the couc

Reasons for quitting: intrinsic and extrinsic motivation for smoking cessation in a population-based sample of smokers.

PubMed

Curry, S J; Grothaus, L; McBride, C

1997-01-01

An intrinsic-extrinsic model of motivation for smoking cessation is extended to a population-based sample of smokers (N = 1,137), using a previously validated Reasons for Quitting (RFQ) scale. Psychometric evaluation of the RFQ replicated the model that includes health concerns and self-control as intrinsic motivation dimensions and immediate reinforcement and social influence as extrinsic motivation dimensions. Compared to volunteers, the population-based sample of smokers reported equivalent health concerns, lower self-control, and higher social influence motivation for cessation. Within the population-based sample, women compared to men were less motivated to quit by health concerns and more motivated by immediate reinforcement; smokers above age 55 expressed lower health concerns and higher self-control motivation than smokers below age 55. Higher baseline levels of intrinsic relative to extrinsic motivation were associated with more advanced stages of readiness to quit smoking and successful smoking cessation at a 12-month follow-up. Among continuing smokers, improvement in stage of readiness to quit over time was associated with significant increases in health concerns and self-control motivation.

Meeting the oral health needs of 12-year-olds in China: human resources for oral health.

PubMed

Sun, Xiangyu; Bernabé, Eduardo; Liu, Xuenan; Zheng, Shuguo; Gallagher, Jennifer E

2017-06-20

An appropriate level of human resources for oral health [HROH] is required to meet the oral health needs of population, and enable maximum improvement in health outcomes. The aim of this study was to estimate the required HROH to meet the oral health needs of the World Health Organization [WHO] reference group of 12-year-olds in China and consider the implications for education, practice, policy and HROH nationally. We estimated the need of HROH to meet the needs of 12-year-olds based on secondary analysis of the epidemiological and questionnaire data from the 3rd Chinese National Oral Health Survey, including caries experience and periodontal factors (calculus), dentally-related behaviour (frequency of toothbrushing and sugar intake), and social factors (parental education). Children's risk for dental caries was classified in four levels from low (level 1) to high (level 4). We built maximum and minimum intervention models of dental care for each risk level, informed by contemporary evidence-based practice. The needs-led HROH model we used in the present study incorporated need for treatment and risk-based prevention using timings verified by experts in China. These findings were used to estimate HROH for the survey sample, extrapolated to 12-year-olds nationally and the total population, taking account of urban and rural coverage, based on different levels of clinical commitment (60-90%). We found that between 40,139 and 51,906 dental professionals were required to deliver care for 12-year-olds nationally based on 80% clinical commitment. We demonstrated that the majority of need for HROH was in the rural population (72.5%). Over 93% of HROH time was dedicated to prevention within the model. Extrapolating the results to the total population, the estimate for HROH nationally was 3.16-4.09 million to achieve national coverage; however, current HROH are only able to serve an estimated 5% of the population with minimum intervention based on a HROH spending 90% of their time in providing clinical care. The findings highlight the gap between dental workforce needs and workforce capacity in China. Significant implications for health policy and human resources for oral health in this country with a developing health system are discussed including the need for public health action.

Population size predicts technological complexity in Oceania

PubMed Central

Kline, Michelle A.; Boyd, Robert

2010-01-01

Much human adaptation depends on the gradual accumulation of culturally transmitted knowledge and technology. Recent models of this process predict that large, well-connected populations will have more diverse and complex tool kits than small, isolated populations. While several examples of the loss of technology in small populations are consistent with this prediction, it found no support in two systematic quantitative tests. Both studies were based on data from continental populations in which contact rates were not available, and therefore these studies do not provide a test of the models. Here, we show that in Oceania, around the time of early European contact, islands with small populations had less complicated marine foraging technology. This finding suggests that explanations of existing cultural variation based on optimality models alone are incomplete because demography plays an important role in generating cumulative cultural adaptation. It also indicates that hominin populations with similar cognitive abilities may leave very different archaeological records, a conclusion that has important implications for our understanding of the origin of anatomically modern humans and their evolved psychology. PMID:20392733

Mate choice theory and the mode of selection in sexual populations.

PubMed

Carson, Hampton L

2003-05-27

Indirect new data imply that mate and/or gamete choice are major selective forces driving genetic change in sexual populations. The system dictates nonrandom mating, an evolutionary process requiring both revised genetic theory and new data on heritability of characters underlying Darwinian fitness. Successfully reproducing individuals represent rare selections from among vigorous, competing survivors of preadult natural selection. Nonrandom mating has correlated demographic effects: reduced effective population size, inbreeding, low gene flow, and emphasis on deme structure. Characters involved in choice behavior at reproduction appear based on quantitative trait loci. This variability serves selection for fitness within the population, having only an incidental relationship to the origin of genetically based reproductive isolation between populations. The claim that extensive hybridization experiments with Drosophila indicate that selection favors a gradual progression of "isolating mechanisms" is flawed, because intra-group random mating is assumed. Over deep time, local sexual populations are strong, independent genetic systems that use rich fields of variable polygenic components of fitness. The sexual reproduction system thus particularizes, in small subspecific populations, the genetic basis of the grand adaptive sweep of selective evolutionary change, much as Darwin proposed.

Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

PubMed

Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

Influenza vaccination coverage estimates in the fee-for service Medicare beneficiary population 2006 - 2016: Using population-based administrative data to support a geographic based near real-time tool.

PubMed

Shen, Angela K; Warnock, Rob; Brereton, Stephaeno; McKean, Stephen; Wernecke, Michael; Chu, Steve; Kelman, Jeffrey A

2018-04-11

Older adults are at great risk of developing serious complications from seasonal influenza. We explore vaccination coverage estimates in the Medicare population through the use of administrative claims data and describe a tool designed to help shape outreach efforts and inform strategies to help raise influenza vaccination rates. This interactive mapping tool uses claims data to compare vaccination levels between geographic (i.e., state, county, zip code) and demographic (i.e., race, age) groups at different points in a season. Trends can also be compared across seasons. Utilization of this tool can assist key actors interested in prevention - medical groups, health plans, hospitals, and state and local public health authorities - in supporting strategies for reaching pools of unvaccinated beneficiaries where general national population estimates of coverage are less informative. Implementing evidence-based tools can be used to address persistent racial and ethnic disparities and prevent a substantial number of influenza cases and hospitalizations.

Methodology for developing life tables for sessile insects in the field using the Whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, in cotton as a model system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Life tables provide a means of measuring the schedules of birth and death from populations over time. They also can be used to quantify the sources and rates of mortality in populations, which has a variety of applications in ecology, including agricultural ecosystems. Horizontal, or cohort-based, l...

Assessing the effects of catch and release regulations on a quality adfluvial brook trout population using a computer based age-structure model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, Casey A.L.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2011-01-01

Assessing the Effects of Catch-and-Release Regulations on a Brook Trout Population Using an Age-Structured Model: North American Journal of Fisheries Management: Vol 30, No 6 var _prum=[['id','54ff88bcabe53dc41d1004a5'],['mark','firstbyte',(new Date()).getTime()

Usage of purchased self-tests for HIV and sexually transmitted infections in Amsterdam, the Netherlands: results of population-based and serial cross-sectional studies among the general population and sexual risk groups

PubMed Central

Bil, Janneke P; Prins, Maria; Stolte, Ineke G; Dijkshoorn, Henriëtte; Heijman, Titia; Snijder, Marieke B; Davidovich, Udi; Zuure, Freke R

2017-01-01

Objectives There are limited data on the usage of commercially bought self-tests for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Therefore, we studied HIV/STI self-test usage and its determinants among the general population and sexual risk groups between 2007 and 2015 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Setting Data were collected in four different studies among the general population (S1–2) and sexual risk groups (S3–4). Participants S1–Amsterdam residents participating in representative population-based surveys (2008 and 2012; n=6044) drawn from the municipality register; S2–Participants of a population-based study stratified by ethnicity drawn from the municipality register of Amsterdam (2011–2015; n=17 603); S3–Men having sex with men (MSM) participating in an HIV observational cohort study (2008 and 2013; n=597) and S4–STI clinic clients participating in a cross-sectional survey (2007–2012; n=5655). Primary and secondary outcome measures Prevalence of HIV/STI self-test usage and its determinants. Results The prevalence of HIV/STI self-test usage in the preceding 6–12 months varied between 1% and 2% across studies. Chlamydia self-tests were most commonly used, except among MSM in S3. Chlamydia and syphilis self-test usage increased over time among the representative sample of Amsterdam residents (S1) and chlamydia self-test usage increased over time among STI clinic clients (S4). Self-test usage was associated with African Surinamese or Ghanaian ethnic origin (S2), being woman or MSM (S1 and 4) and having had a higher number of sexual partners (S1–2). Among those in the general population who tested for HIV/STI in the preceding 12 months, 5–9% used a self-test. Conclusions Despite low HIV/STI self-test usage, we observed increases over time in chlamydia and syphilis self-test usage. Furthermore, self-test usage was higher among high-risk individuals in the general population. It is important to continue monitoring self-test usage and informing the public about the unknown quality of available self-tests in the Netherlands and about the pros and cons of self-testing. PMID:28939577

Incident cancers and late mortality in Australian children treated by allogeneic stem cell transplantation for non-malignant diseases.

PubMed

Nelson, Adam S; Vajdic, Claire M; Ashton, Lesley J; Le Marsney, Renate E; Nivison-Smith, Ian; Wilcox, Leonie; Dodds, Anthony J; O'Brien, Tracey A

2017-01-01

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a life-saving procedure for children with a variety of non-malignant conditions. However, these children face an increased risk of late death and incident cancers after HSCT, which may occur many years after their initial HSCT. We examined cancer occurrence and late mortality in a population-based cohort of 318 Australian children who underwent allogeneic HSCT for non-malignant disease. Standardized incident ratios (SIRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated and compared with population controls. We identified six (1.9%) cancers at a median 9.2 years post-HSCT. Cancer occurred 15 times more frequently than in the general population (SIR 15.4, 95% CI = 6.9-34.2). Of the 198 patients who survived for at least 2 years post-HSCT, 11 (5.6%) died at a median 7.5 years post-HSCT. The mortality rate was 17 times higher than in the general population (SMR 17.5, 95% CI = 9.7-31.2). Children transplanted for non-malignant conditions require evidence-based survivorship programs to reduce excess morbidity and mortality. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget

PubMed Central

Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Corney, Stuart P.; McMahon, Clive R.; Hindell, Mark A.

2018-01-01

Higher trophic-level species are an integral component of any marine ecosystem. Despite their importance, methods for representing these species in end-to-end ecosystem models often have limited representation of life histories, energetics and behaviour. We built an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget for female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina to demonstrate a method for detailed representation of marine mammals. We aimed to develop a model which could i) simulate energy use and life histories, as well as breeding traits of southern elephant seals in an emergent manner, ii) project a stable population over time, and iii) have realistic population dynamics and structure based on emergent life history features (such as age at first breeding, lifespan, fecundity and (yearling) survival). We evaluated the model’s ability to represent a stable population over long time periods (>10 generations), including the sensitivity of the emergent properties to variations in key parameters. Analyses indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in resource availability and energy requirements for the transition from pup to juvenile, and juvenile to adult stage. This was particularly the case for breeding success and yearling survival. This model is suitable for use as a standalone tool for investigating the impacts of changes to behaviour and population responses of southern elephant seals. PMID:29596456

Overcoming statistical bias to estimate genetic mating systems in open populations: a comparison of Bateman's principles between the sexes in a sex-role-reversed pipefish.

PubMed

Mobley, Kenyon B; Jones, Adam G

2013-03-01

The genetic mating system is a key component of the sexual selection process, yet methods for the quantification of mating systems remain controversial. One approach involves metrics derived from Bateman's principles, which are based on variances in mating and reproductive success and the relationship between them. However, these measures are extremely difficult to measure for both sexes in open populations, because missing data can result in biased estimates. Here, we develop a novel approach for the estimation of mating system metrics based on Bateman's principles and apply it to a microsatellite-based parentage analysis of a natural population of the dusky pipefish, Syngnathus floridae. Our results show that both male and female dusky pipefish have significantly positive Bateman gradients. However, females exhibit larger values of the opportunity for sexual selection and the opportunity for selection compared to males. These differences translate into a maximum intensity of sexual selection (S'max) for females three times larger than that for males. Overall, this study identifies a critical source of bias that affects studies of mating systems in open populations, presents a novel method for overcoming this bias, and applies this method for the first time in a sex-role-reversed pipefish. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Real-time PCR assays for monitoring anaerobic fungal biomass and population size in the rumen.

PubMed

Lwin, Khin Ohnmar; Hayakawa, Mika; Ban-Tokuda, Tomomi; Matsui, Hiroki

2011-04-01

The relationship between copy numbers of internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) and biomass or zoospore count of anaerobic fungi was studied to develop a quantitative real-time PCR-based monitoring method for fungal biomass or population in the rumen. Nine fungal strains were used to determine the relationship between ITS1 copy number and fungal biomass. Rumen fluid from three sheep and a cow were used to determine the relationship between ITS1 copy number and fungal population. ITS1 copy number was determined by real-time PCR with a specific primer set for anaerobic fungi. Freeze-dried fungal cells were weighed for fungal biomass. Zoospore counts were determined by the roll-tube method. A positive correlation was observed between both ITS1 copy number and dry weight and ITS1 copy number and zoospore counts, suggesting that the use of ITS1 copy numbers is effective for estimating fungal biomass and population density. On the basis of ITS1 copy numbers, fluctuations in the fungal population in sheep rumen showed that although the values varied among individual animals, the fungal population tended to decrease after feeding. In the present study, a culture-independent method was established that will provide a powerful tool for understanding the ecology of anaerobic fungi in the rumen.

[Travel time and distances to Norwegian out-of-hours casualty clinics].

PubMed

Raknes, Guttorm; Morken, Tone; Hunskår, Steinar

2014-11-01

Geographical factors have an impact on the utilisation of out-of-hours services. In this study we have investigated the travel distance to out-of-hours casualty clinics in Norwegian municipalities in 2011 and the number of municipalities covered by the proposed recommendations for secondary on-call arrangements due to long distances. We estimated the average maximum travel times and distances in Norwegian municipalities using a postcode-based method. Separate analyses were performed for municipalities with a single, permanently located casualty clinic. Altogether 417 out of 430 municipalities were included. We present the median value of the maximum travel times and distances for the included municipalities. The median maximum average travel distance for the municipalities was 19 km. The median maximum average travel time was 22 minutes. In 40 of the municipalities (10 %) the median maximum average travel time exceeded 60 minutes, and in 97 municipalities (23 %) the median maximum average travel time exceeded 40 minutes. The population of these groups comprised 2 % and 5 % of the country's total population respectively. For municipalities with permanent emergency facilities(N = 316), the median average flight time 16 minutes and median average distance 13 km.. In many municipalities, the inhabitants have a long average journey to out-of-hours emergency health services, but seen as a whole, the inhabitants of these municipalities account for a very small proportion of the Norwegian population. The results indicate that the proposed recommendations for secondary on-call duty based on long distances apply to only a small number of inhabitants. The recommendations should therefore be adjusted and reformulated to become more relevant.

Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City

PubMed Central

Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F.; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2016-01-01

For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world’s deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the short-term. PMID:26793189

Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City.

PubMed

Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2015-01-01

For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the short-term.

Genetic Status and Timing of a Weevil Introduction to Santa Cruz Island, Galápagos

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Successful invasive species can overcome or circumvent the potential genetic loss caused by an introduction bottleneck through a rapid population expansion and admixture from multiple introductions. We explore the genetic makeup and the timing of a species introduction to Santa Cruz Island in the Galápagos archipelago. We investigate the presence of processes that can maintain genetic diversity in populations of the broad-nosed weevil Galapaganus howdenae howdenae. Analyses of combined genotypes for 8 microsatellite loci showed evidence of past population size reductions through moment and likelihood-based estimators. No evidence of admixture through multiple introductions was found, but substantial current population sizes (N0 298, 95% credible limits 50–2300), genetic diversity comparable with long-established endemics (Mean number of alleles = 3.875), and lack of genetic structure across the introduced range (F ST = 0.01359) could suggest that foundations are in place for populations to rapidly recover any loss of genetic variability. The time estimates for the introduction into Santa Cruz support an accidental transfer during the colonization period (1832–1959) predating the spurt in human population growth. Our evaluation of the genetic status of G. h. howdenae suggests potential for population growth in addition to our field observations of a concurrent expansion in range and feeding preferences towards protected areas and endemic host plants. PMID:24399746

End of Life in a Haitian American, Faith-Based Community: Caring for Family and Communal Unity.

PubMed

Ladd, Susan Charlotte; Gordon, Shirley C

This article presents two models resulting from a grounded theory study of the end-of-life decision-making process for Haitian Americans. Successful access to this vulnerable population was achieved through the faith-based community. The first model describes this faith-based community of Haitian Americans. The second model describes the process used by families in this community who must make end-of-life healthcare decisions. Implications for nursing practice and caring science include a need to improve the congruence between the nursing care provided at this vulnerable time and the cultural values of a population.

[Real-time monitoring of anti-influenza vaccination in the 65 and over population in France based on vaccine sales].

PubMed

Pivette, M; Auvigne, V; Guérin, P; Mueller, J E

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to describe a tool based on vaccine sales to estimate vaccination coverage against seasonal influenza in near real-time in the French population aged 65 and over. Vaccine sales data available on sale-day +1 came from a stratified sample of 3004 pharmacies in metropolitan France. Vaccination coverage rates were estimated between 2009 and 2014 and compared with those obtained based on vaccination refund data from the general health insurance scheme. The seasonal vaccination coverage estimates were highly correlated with those obtained from refund data. They were also slightly higher, which can be explained by the inclusion of non-reimbursed vaccines and the consideration of all individuals aged 65 and over. We have developed an online tool that provides estimates of daily vaccination coverage during each vaccination campaign. The developed tool provides a reliable and near real-time estimation of vaccination coverage among people aged 65 and over. It can be used to evaluate and adjust public health messages. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Time Spent Outdoors, Depressive Symptoms, and Variation by Race and Ethnicity.

PubMed

Beyer, Kirsten M M; Szabo, Aniko; Nattinger, Ann B

2016-09-01

Numerous studies have explored neighborhood environmental correlates of mental illnesses, presuming that the time individuals spend in their environment can confer benefit or harm based on environmental characteristics. However, few population-based studies have directly examined the relationship between time spent outdoors and mental health, and little work has been done to explore how experiences differ by race and ethnicity. Though some have proposed "doses of outdoor time" to improve health, the absence of information about the benefits conferred by particular "doses," and expected baseline levels of outdoor time, are needed to inform the development of recommendations and interventions. This study examined the relationship between time spent outdoors and depression among a population-based sample of American adults, characterized current levels of time spent outdoors by race and ethnicity, and examined how the relationship between time spent outdoors and depression varies by race and ethnicity. Descriptive statistics and survey regression models were used to examine data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for 2009-2012. Findings provide evidence that time spent outdoors is associated with fewer depressive symptoms, but this benefit may not be equally distributed by race and ethnicity. Descriptive analyses also reveal differences in time spent outdoors among different racial and ethnic groups. Study findings support the notion that increasing time spent outdoors may result in mental health benefits. However, this study questions whether that benefit is experienced equally among different groups, particularly given differences in occupational experiences and environmental characteristics of neighborhoods. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial accessibility of the population to urban health centres in Kermanshah, Islamic Republic of Iran: a geographic information systems analysis.

PubMed

Reshadat, S; Saedi, S; Zangeneh, A; Ghasemi, S R; Gilan, N R; Karbasi, A; Bavandpoor, E

2015-09-08

Geographic information systems (GIS) analysis has not been widely used in underdeveloped countries to ensure that vulnerable populations have accessibility to primary health-care services. This study applied GIS methods to analyse the spatial accessibility to urban primary-care centres of the population in Kermanshah city, Islamic Republic of Iran, by age and sex groups. In a descriptive-analytical study over 3 time periods, network analysis, mean centre and standard distance methods were applied using ArcGIS 9.3. The analysis was based on a standard radius of 750 m distance from health centres, walking speed of 1 m/s and desired access time to health centres of 12.5 mins. The proportion of the population with inadequate geographical access to health centres rose from 47.3% in 1997 to 58.4% in 2012. The mean centre and standard distance mapping showed that the spatial distribution of health centres in Kermanshah needed to be adjusted to changes in population distribution.

Velocity-based movement modeling for individual and population level inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Sterling, Jeremy T.

2011-01-01

Understanding animal movement and resource selection provides important information about the ecology of the animal, but an animal's movement and behavior are not typically constant in time. We present a velocity-based approach for modeling animal movement in space and time that allows for temporal heterogeneity in an animal's response to the environment, allows for temporal irregularity in telemetry data, and accounts for the uncertainty in the location information. Population-level inference on movement patterns and resource selection can then be made through cluster analysis of the parameters related to movement and behavior. We illustrate this approach through a study of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) movement in the Bering Sea, Alaska, USA. Results show sex differentiation, with female northern fur seals exhibiting stronger response to environmental variables.

Velocity-Based Movement Modeling for Individual and Population Level Inference

PubMed Central

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Sterling, Jeremy T.

2011-01-01

Understanding animal movement and resource selection provides important information about the ecology of the animal, but an animal's movement and behavior are not typically constant in time. We present a velocity-based approach for modeling animal movement in space and time that allows for temporal heterogeneity in an animal's response to the environment, allows for temporal irregularity in telemetry data, and accounts for the uncertainty in the location information. Population-level inference on movement patterns and resource selection can then be made through cluster analysis of the parameters related to movement and behavior. We illustrate this approach through a study of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) movement in the Bering Sea, Alaska, USA. Results show sex differentiation, with female northern fur seals exhibiting stronger response to environmental variables. PMID:21931584

Quality of Life Outcomes in Community-based Mental Health Consumers: Comparisons with Population Norms and Changes over Time.

PubMed

Happell, Brenda; Stanton, Robert; Hodgetts, Danya; Scott, David

2016-01-01

Quality of life is shown to be lower in people diagnosed with mental illness in comparison to the general population. The aim of this study is to examine the Quality of life in a subset of people accessing mental health services in a regional Queensland Centre. Thirty-seven people accessing mental health services completed the SF36 Health Survey on three occasions. Differences and relationships between Physical Composite Scores and Mental Composite Scores, comparisons with Australian population norms, and temporal change in Quality of Life were examined. Physical Composite Scores were significantly different to, but significantly correlated with, Mental Composite Scores on each occasion. Physical Composite Scores and Mental Composite Scores were significantly different to population norms, and did not vary significantly across time. The poor Quality of life of people with mental illness remains a significant challenge for the mental health workforce.

Extinction phase transitions in a model of ecological and evolutionary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barghathi, Hatem; Tackkett, Skye; Vojta, Thomas

2017-07-01

We study the non-equilibrium phase transition between survival and extinction of spatially extended biological populations using an agent-based model. We especially focus on the effects of global temporal fluctuations of the environmental conditions, i.e., temporal disorder. Using large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations of up to 3 × 107 organisms and 105 generations, we find the extinction transition in time-independent environments to be in the well-known directed percolation universality class. In contrast, temporal disorder leads to a highly unusual extinction transition characterized by logarithmically slow population decay and enormous fluctuations even for large populations. The simulations provide strong evidence for this transition to be of exotic infinite-noise type, as recently predicted by a renormalization group theory. The transition is accompanied by temporal Griffiths phases featuring a power-law dependence of the life time on the population size.

Regional differences in echocardiography provision in New Zealand--results from the 2013 SCANZ Workforce Survey.

PubMed

Buckley, Belinda A; Poppe, Katrina; Farnworth, Mark J; Whalley, Gillian

2015-01-30

Abstract Healthcare may be unevenly distributed based on geographic location. This study aimed to identify whether regional differences in echocardiography provision exist and, if so, to explore key causes. In March 2013, 18 public hospitals with a sonographer-led echocardiography service were surveyed, all of which provided data. Questions related to characteristics of the sonographer workforce, echocardiogram volumes and workflows. Information on District Health Board (DHB) population was obtained from public access websites. Multivariable linear regression was performed using the following variables: ethnicity, age, socioeconomic status, type of centre, sonographer full-time equivalent (FTE) and number/proportion of trainees to determine their potential contribution to echocardiogram volume. 1748 echocardiograms were performed per 100,000 population (mean) with significant differences seen amongst DHBs but not between tertiary surgical and regional centres (surgical median 1802, regional median 1658, p=0.18). Regional disparity in the population-based cardiac sonographer workforce size was observed and the number of scans performed per sonographer was higher in larger centres. In multivariable modelling, the DHB population-based scan volume was predicted by: socioeconomic status (top two quintiles of deprivation status increased scans by 75 per 100,000 population, p=0.02) and age (age 20 to 65 years increased scans by 131 per 100,000 population, p=0.06). Regional differences in echocardiography services in New Zealand exist as evidenced by marked regional disparity in both population-based echo volumes and cardiac sonographer workforce size.

Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.

PubMed

Deville, Pierre; Linard, Catherine; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R; Gaughan, Andrea E; Blondel, Vincent D; Tatem, Andrew J

2014-11-11

During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography.

Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

PubMed Central

Deville, Pierre; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Blondel, Vincent D.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

The non-equilibrium allele frequency spectrum in a Poisson random field framework.

PubMed

Kaj, Ingemar; Mugal, Carina F

2016-10-01

In population genetic studies, the allele frequency spectrum (AFS) efficiently summarizes genome-wide polymorphism data and shapes a variety of allele frequency-based summary statistics. While existing theory typically features equilibrium conditions, emerging methodology requires an analytical understanding of the build-up of the allele frequencies over time. In this work, we use the framework of Poisson random fields to derive new representations of the non-equilibrium AFS for the case of a Wright-Fisher population model with selection. In our approach, the AFS is a scaling-limit of the expectation of a Poisson stochastic integral and the representation of the non-equilibrium AFS arises in terms of a fixation time probability distribution. The known duality between the Wright-Fisher diffusion process and a birth and death process generalizing Kingman's coalescent yields an additional representation. The results carry over to the setting of a random sample drawn from the population and provide the non-equilibrium behavior of sample statistics. Our findings are consistent with and extend a previous approach where the non-equilibrium AFS solves a partial differential forward equation with a non-traditional boundary condition. Moreover, we provide a bridge to previous coalescent-based work, and hence tie several frameworks together. Since frequency-based summary statistics are widely used in population genetics, for example, to identify candidate loci of adaptive evolution, to infer the demographic history of a population, or to improve our understanding of the underlying mechanics of speciation events, the presented results are potentially useful for a broad range of topics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The reading of components of diabetic retinopathy: an evolutionary approach for filtering normal digital fundus imaging in screening and population based studies.

PubMed

Tang, Hongying Lilian; Goh, Jonathan; Peto, Tunde; Ling, Bingo Wing-Kuen; Al Turk, Lutfiah Ismail; Hu, Yin; Wang, Su; Saleh, George Michael

2013-01-01

In any diabetic retinopathy screening program, about two-thirds of patients have no retinopathy. However, on average, it takes a human expert about one and a half times longer to decide an image is normal than to recognize an abnormal case with obvious features. In this work, we present an automated system for filtering out normal cases to facilitate a more effective use of grading time. The key aim with any such tool is to achieve high sensitivity and specificity to ensure patients' safety and service efficiency. There are many challenges to overcome, given the variation of images and characteristics to identify. The system combines computed evidence obtained from various processing stages, including segmentation of candidate regions, classification and contextual analysis through Hidden Markov Models. Furthermore, evolutionary algorithms are employed to optimize the Hidden Markov Models, feature selection and heterogeneous ensemble classifiers. In order to evaluate its capability of identifying normal images across diverse populations, a population-oriented study was undertaken comparing the software's output to grading by humans. In addition, population based studies collect large numbers of images on subjects expected to have no abnormality. These studies expect timely and cost-effective grading. Altogether 9954 previously unseen images taken from various populations were tested. All test images were masked so the automated system had not been exposed to them before. This system was trained using image subregions taken from about 400 sample images. Sensitivities of 92.2% and specificities of 90.4% were achieved varying between populations and population clusters. Of all images the automated system decided to be normal, 98.2% were true normal when compared to the manual grading results. These results demonstrate scalability and strong potential of such an integrated computational intelligence system as an effective tool to assist a grading service.

To stock or not to stock? Assessing restoration potential of a remnant American shad spawning run with hatchery supplementation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, Michael M.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2013-01-01

Hatchery supplementation has been widely used as a restoration technique for American Shad Alosa sapidissima on the East Coast of the USA, but results have been equivocal. In the Penobscot River, Maine, dam removals and other improvements to fish passage will likely reestablish access to the majority of this species’ historic spawning habitat. Additional efforts being considered include the stocking of larval American Shad. The decision about whether to stock a river system undergoing restoration should be made after evaluating the probability of natural recolonization and examining the costs and benefits of potentially accelerating recovery using a stocking program. However, appropriate evaluation can be confounded by a dearth of information about the starting population size and age structure of the remnant American Shad spawning run in the river. We used the Penobscot River as a case study to assess the theoretical sensitivity of recovery time to either scenario (stocking or not) by building a deterministic model of an American Shad population. This model is based on the best available estimates of size at age, fecundity, rate of iteroparity, and recruitment. Density dependence was imposed, such that the population reached a plateau at an arbitrary recovery goal of 633,000 spawning adults. Stocking had a strong accelerating effect on the time to modeled recovery (as measured by the time to reach 50% of the recovery goal) in the base model, but stocking had diminishing effects with larger population sizes. There is a diminishing return to stocking when the starting population is modestly increased. With a low starting population (a spawning run of 1,000), supplementation with 12 million larvae annually accelerated modeled recovery by 12 years. Only a 2-year acceleration was observed if the starting population was 15,000. Such a heuristic model may aid managers in assessing the costs and benefits of stocking by incorporating a structured decision framework.

Renal disease disparities in Asian and Pacific-based populations in Hawai'i.

PubMed Central

Mau, Marjorie K.; West, Margaret; Sugihara, Jared; Kamaka, Martina; Mikami, Judy; Cheng, Shiuh-Feng

2003-01-01

The prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States is expected to double over the next 10 years. The identification of ethnic differences in the prevalence, treatment, morbidity, and mortality related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) is of great concern. Asian Americans comprise a rapidly expanding sector of the U.S. population and are reported to have ESRD growth rates that are approximately 50% higher than caucasians. Hawai'i has a large, well-established Asian and Pacific-based population that facilitates the examination of disparities in renal disease among the state's diverse ethnic groups. The prevalence of ESRD in Hawai'i has continued to rise due, in part, to high rates of diabetes, glomerulonephritis, and hypertension reported in Asian Americans and Pacific-based populations. ESRD patients in Hawai'i have a two-fold higher prevalence of glomerulonephritis, compared with the general ESRD population in the United States. Other potential sources of renal disparities-such as cultural factors, language barriers, and health access factors-among Hawaii's major ethnic groups are assessed. However, few studies have examined the relative contribution of these potential factors. Consequently, efforts to reduce and eventually eliminate renal disease disparities will require a better understanding of the major sources of health disparities, such as timely medical care, a diverse health workforce, and cultural/social barriers, that affect optimal health care practices in Asian and Pacific-based populations. PMID:14620708

Background and Data Configuration Process of a Nationwide Population-Based Study Using the Korean National Health Insurance System

PubMed Central

Song, Sun Ok; Jung, Chang Hee; Song, Young Duk; Park, Cheol-Young; Kwon, Hyuk-Sang; Cha, Bong Soo; Park, Joong-Yeol; Lee, Ki-Up

2014-01-01

Background The National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) recently signed an agreement to provide limited open access to the databases within the Korean Diabetes Association for the benefit of Korean subjects with diabetes. Here, we present the history, structure, contents, and way to use data procurement in the Korean National Health Insurance (NHI) system for the benefit of Korean researchers. Methods The NHIS in Korea is a single-payer program and is mandatory for all residents in Korea. The three main healthcare programs of the NHI, Medical Aid, and long-term care insurance (LTCI) provide 100% coverage for the Korean population. The NHIS in Korea has adopted a fee-for-service system to pay health providers. Researchers can obtain health information from the four databases of the insured that contain data on health insurance claims, health check-ups and LTCI. Results Metabolic disease as chronic disease is increasing with aging society. NHIS data is based on mandatory, serial population data, so, this might show the time course of disease and predict some disease progress, and also be used in primary and secondary prevention of disease after data mining. Conclusion The NHIS database represents the entire Korean population and can be used as a population-based database. The integrated information technology of the NHIS database makes it a world-leading population-based epidemiology and disease research platform. PMID:25349827

Background and data configuration process of a nationwide population-based study using the korean national health insurance system.

PubMed

Song, Sun Ok; Jung, Chang Hee; Song, Young Duk; Park, Cheol-Young; Kwon, Hyuk-Sang; Cha, Bong Soo; Park, Joong-Yeol; Lee, Ki-Up; Ko, Kyung Soo; Lee, Byung-Wan

2014-10-01

The National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) recently signed an agreement to provide limited open access to the databases within the Korean Diabetes Association for the benefit of Korean subjects with diabetes. Here, we present the history, structure, contents, and way to use data procurement in the Korean National Health Insurance (NHI) system for the benefit of Korean researchers. The NHIS in Korea is a single-payer program and is mandatory for all residents in Korea. The three main healthcare programs of the NHI, Medical Aid, and long-term care insurance (LTCI) provide 100% coverage for the Korean population. The NHIS in Korea has adopted a fee-for-service system to pay health providers. Researchers can obtain health information from the four databases of the insured that contain data on health insurance claims, health check-ups and LTCI. Metabolic disease as chronic disease is increasing with aging society. NHIS data is based on mandatory, serial population data, so, this might show the time course of disease and predict some disease progress, and also be used in primary and secondary prevention of disease after data mining. The NHIS database represents the entire Korean population and can be used as a population-based database. The integrated information technology of the NHIS database makes it a world-leading population-based epidemiology and disease research platform.

Stability and robustness analysis of cooperation cycles driven by destructive agents in finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Requejo, Rubén J.; Camacho, Juan; Cuesta, José A.; Arenas, Alex

2012-08-01

The emergence and promotion of cooperation are two of the main issues in evolutionary game theory, as cooperation is amenable to exploitation by defectors, which take advantage of cooperative individuals at no cost, dooming them to extinction. It has been recently shown that the existence of purely destructive agents (termed jokers) acting on the common enterprises (public goods games) can induce stable limit cycles among cooperation, defection, and destruction when infinite populations are considered. These cycles allow for time lapses in which cooperators represent a relevant fraction of the population, providing a mechanism for the emergence of cooperative states in nature and human societies. Here we study analytically and through agent-based simulations the dynamics generated by jokers in finite populations for several selection rules. Cycles appear in all cases studied, thus showing that the joker dynamics generically yields a robust cyclic behavior not restricted to infinite populations. We also compute the average time in which the population consists mostly of just one strategy and compare the results with numerical simulations.

Evaluating and improving count-based population inference: A case study from 31 years of monitoring Sandhill Cranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2017-01-01

Monitoring animal populations can be difficult. Limited resources often force monitoring programs to rely on unadjusted or smoothed counts as an index of abundance. Smoothing counts is commonly done using a moving-average estimator to dampen sampling variation. These indices are commonly used to inform management decisions, although their reliability is often unknown. We outline a process to evaluate the biological plausibility of annual changes in population counts and indices from a typical monitoring scenario and compare results with a hierarchical Bayesian time series (HBTS) model. We evaluated spring and fall counts, fall indices, and model-based predictions for the Rocky Mountain population (RMP) of Sandhill Cranes (Antigone canadensis) by integrating juvenile recruitment, harvest, and survival into a stochastic stage-based population model. We used simulation to evaluate population indices from the HBTS model and the commonly used 3-yr moving average estimator. We found counts of the RMP to exhibit biologically unrealistic annual change, while the fall population index was largely biologically realistic. HBTS model predictions suggested that the RMP changed little over 31 yr of monitoring, but the pattern depended on assumptions about the observational process. The HBTS model fall population predictions were biologically plausible if observed crane harvest mortality was compensatory up to natural mortality, as empirical evidence suggests. Simulations indicated that the predicted mean of the HBTS model was generally a more reliable estimate of the true population than population indices derived using a moving 3-yr average estimator. Practitioners could gain considerable advantages from modeling population counts using a hierarchical Bayesian autoregressive approach. Advantages would include: (1) obtaining measures of uncertainty; (2) incorporating direct knowledge of the observational and population processes; (3) accommodating missing years of data; and (4) forecasting population size.

Optimal Achievable Encoding for Brain Machine Interface

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-22

dictionary-based encoding approach to translate a visual image into sequential patterns of electrical stimulation in real time , in a manner that...including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and...networks, and by applying linear decoding to complete recorded populations of retinal ganglion cells for the first time . Third, we developed a greedy

Hydrothermal time models for conidial germination and mycelial growth of the seed pathogen Pyrenophora semeniperda

Treesearch

Connor W. Barth; Susan E. Meyer; Julie Beckstead; Phil S. Allen

2015-01-01

Population-based threshold models using hydrothermal time (HTT) have been widely used to model seed germination. We used HTT to model conidial germination and mycelial growth for the seed pathogen Pyrenophora semeniperda in a novel approach to understanding its interactions with host seeds. Germination time courses and mycelial growth rates for P.semeniperda were...

Cancer growth and its inhibition in terms of coherence.

PubMed

Popp, Fritz-Albert

2009-01-01

It is shown that a molecular origin for growth inhibition is rather unlikely because the cross-sectional area of inhibitory forces in a cell population cannot exceed more than about 10(-8) Dalton. A model of the time dependence of cell number N(t), where t is the time, is based on biophotons and explains without any contradiction to known experimental results growth regulation in terms of the factor a = 1/T, which stimulates the cell division rate dN/dt and the factor b = dT/dN(1/T(2)), which inhibits cell division. It accounts for the total cell division rate dN/dt = aN(t) - bN(2)(t). For adults, T is the coherence time of about 10(6) s, corresponding to the longest lifetime of cell organelles in men, while dT/dN = 10(-7) s corresponds to the resolution time of the cell population which is always the average time interval between two cell loss events. Our model follows a stringently holistic approach to describing a cell population as an entity, regulated by a fully coherent (biophoton) field.

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Establishment probability in newly founded populations.

PubMed

Gusset, Markus; Müller, Michael S; Grimm, Volker

2012-06-20

Establishment success in newly founded populations relies on reaching the established phase, which is defined by characteristic fluctuations of the population's state variables. Stochastic population models can be used to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations; however, so far no simple but robust method for doing so existed. To determine a critical initial number of individuals that need to be released to reach the established phase, we used a novel application of the "Wissel plot", where -ln(1 - P0(t)) is plotted against time t. This plot is based on the equation P(0)t=1-c(1)e(-ω(1t)), which relates the probability of extinction by time t, P(0)(t), to two constants: c(1) describes the probability of a newly founded population to reach the established phase, whereas ω(1) describes the population's probability of extinction per short time interval once established. For illustration, we applied the method to a previously developed stochastic population model of the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). A newly founded population reaches the established phase if the intercept of the (extrapolated) linear parts of the "Wissel plot" with the y-axis, which is -ln(c(1)), is negative. For wild dogs in our model, this is the case if a critical initial number of four packs, consisting of eight individuals each, are released. The method we present to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations is generic and inferences thus are transferable to other systems across the field of conservation biology. In contrast to other methods, our approach disaggregates the components of a population's viability by distinguishing establishment from persistence.

The Genetics of Bene Israel from India Reveals Both Substantial Jewish and Indian Ancestry

PubMed Central

Davidson, Natalie R.; Billing-Ross, Paul; Dubrovsky, Maya; Campbell, Christopher L.; Oddoux, Carole; Friedman, Eitan; Atzmon, Gil; Halperin, Eran; Ostrer, Harry; Keinan, Alon

2016-01-01

The Bene Israel Jewish community from West India is a unique population whose history before the 18th century remains largely unknown. Bene Israel members consider themselves as descendants of Jews, yet the identity of Jewish ancestors and their arrival time to India are unknown, with speculations on arrival time varying between the 8th century BCE and the 6th century CE. Here, we characterize the genetic history of Bene Israel by collecting and genotyping 18 Bene Israel individuals. Combining with 486 individuals from 41 other Jewish, Indian and Pakistani populations, and additional individuals from worldwide populations, we conducted comprehensive genome-wide analyses based on FST, principal component analysis, ADMIXTURE, identity-by-descent sharing, admixture linkage disequilibrium decay, haplotype sharing and allele sharing autocorrelation decay, as well as contrasted patterns between the X chromosome and the autosomes. The genetics of Bene Israel individuals resemble local Indian populations, while at the same time constituting a clearly separated and unique population in India. They are unique among Indian and Pakistani populations we analyzed in sharing considerable genetic ancestry with other Jewish populations. Putting together the results from all analyses point to Bene Israel being an admixed population with both Jewish and Indian ancestry, with the genetic contribution of each of these ancestral populations being substantial. The admixture took place in the last millennium, about 19–33 generations ago. It involved Middle-Eastern Jews and was sex-biased, with more male Jewish and local female contribution. It was followed by a population bottleneck and high endogamy, which can lead to increased prevalence of recessive diseases in this population. This study provides an example of how genetic analysis advances our knowledge of human history in cases where other disciplines lack the relevant data to do so. PMID:27010569

The Genetics of Bene Israel from India Reveals Both Substantial Jewish and Indian Ancestry.

PubMed

Waldman, Yedael Y; Biddanda, Arjun; Davidson, Natalie R; Billing-Ross, Paul; Dubrovsky, Maya; Campbell, Christopher L; Oddoux, Carole; Friedman, Eitan; Atzmon, Gil; Halperin, Eran; Ostrer, Harry; Keinan, Alon

2016-01-01

The Bene Israel Jewish community from West India is a unique population whose history before the 18th century remains largely unknown. Bene Israel members consider themselves as descendants of Jews, yet the identity of Jewish ancestors and their arrival time to India are unknown, with speculations on arrival time varying between the 8th century BCE and the 6th century CE. Here, we characterize the genetic history of Bene Israel by collecting and genotyping 18 Bene Israel individuals. Combining with 486 individuals from 41 other Jewish, Indian and Pakistani populations, and additional individuals from worldwide populations, we conducted comprehensive genome-wide analyses based on FST, principal component analysis, ADMIXTURE, identity-by-descent sharing, admixture linkage disequilibrium decay, haplotype sharing and allele sharing autocorrelation decay, as well as contrasted patterns between the X chromosome and the autosomes. The genetics of Bene Israel individuals resemble local Indian populations, while at the same time constituting a clearly separated and unique population in India. They are unique among Indian and Pakistani populations we analyzed in sharing considerable genetic ancestry with other Jewish populations. Putting together the results from all analyses point to Bene Israel being an admixed population with both Jewish and Indian ancestry, with the genetic contribution of each of these ancestral populations being substantial. The admixture took place in the last millennium, about 19-33 generations ago. It involved Middle-Eastern Jews and was sex-biased, with more male Jewish and local female contribution. It was followed by a population bottleneck and high endogamy, which can lead to increased prevalence of recessive diseases in this population. This study provides an example of how genetic analysis advances our knowledge of human history in cases where other disciplines lack the relevant data to do so.

Impact of in-Sewer Degradation of Pharmaceutical and Personal Care Products (PPCPs) Population Markers on a Population Model.

PubMed

O'Brien, Jake William; Banks, Andrew Phillip William; Novic, Andrew Joseph; Mueller, Jochen F; Jiang, Guangming; Ort, Christoph; Eaglesham, Geoff; Yuan, Zhiguo; Thai, Phong K

2017-04-04

A key uncertainty of wastewater-based epidemiology is the size of the population which contributed to a given wastewater sample. We previously developed and validated a Bayesian inference model to estimate population size based on 14 population markers which: (1) are easily measured and (2) have mass loads which correlate with population size. However, the potential uncertainty of the model prediction due to in-sewer degradation of these markers was not evaluated. In this study, we addressed this gap by testing their stability under sewer conditions and assessed whether degradation impacts the model estimates. Five markers, which formed the core of our model, were stable in the sewers while the others were not. Our evaluation showed that the presence of unstable population markers in the model did not decrease the precision of the population estimates providing that stable markers such as acesulfame remained in the model. However, to achieve the minimum uncertainty in population estimates, we propose that the core markers to be included in population models for other sites should meet two additional criteria: (3) negligible degradation in wastewater to ensure the stability of chemicals during collection; and (4) < 10% in-sewer degradation could occur during the mean residence time of the sewer network.

Pre-Whaling Genetic Diversity and Population Ecology in Eastern Pacific Gray Whales: Insights from Ancient DNA and Stable Isotopes

PubMed Central

Alter, S. Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size. PMID:22590499

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

PubMed

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard M; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2010-01-28

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Improving the efficiency of telephone-based disease management programs: getting the population and the timing right using hospital admission data.

PubMed

Watts, Jennifer J; Jolley, Damien; Wainer, Jo; Atchison, Rory

2012-12-01

Telephone-based disease management (DM) programs can improve health outcomes and provide a positive return on investment to funders. However, there is scant evidence about how to use hospital admission episode data to identify patients who are most likely to participate in a DM program. The objective of this study was to use hospital admission episode data held by health insurers to determine those factors that predict members with chronic disease joining and remaining in a DM program for at least 6 months. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to determine predictors of participating in a DM program for an insured population who had been admitted to hospital for congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The outcome variable was binary: did the member both opt into the DM program and remain in the program for at least 6 months? The study population included 9874 private health fund members. Time from a related hospital admission was a significant predictor, with those offered the program within 3 to 6 months being 71% more likely (95% confidence interval [CI]: 33%, 113%) to participate. The length of time from offer to commencement also was a significant predictor, with those commencing within 3 to 4 months being 75% (95% CI: 44%, 112%) as likely to remain in the program. It is possible to predict which individuals are most likely to participate in a telephone-based DM program using hospital admission episode data. Once individuals are identified, timely commencement of a DM program is an important predictor of success.

Television screen time, but not computer use and reading time, is associated with cardio-metabolic biomarkers in a multiethnic Asian population: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Nang, Ei Ei Khaing; Salim, Agus; Wu, Yi; Tai, E Shyong; Lee, Jeannette; Van Dam, Rob M

2013-05-30

Recent evidence shows that sedentary behaviour may be an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancers and all-cause mortality. However, results are not consistent and different types of sedentary behaviour might have different effects on health. Thus the aim of this study was to evaluate the association between television screen time, computer/reading time and cardio-metabolic biomarkers in a multiethnic urban Asian population. We also sought to understand the potential mediators of this association. The Singapore Prospective Study Program (2004-2007), was a cross-sectional population-based study in a multiethnic population in Singapore. We studied 3305 Singaporean adults of Chinese, Malay and Indian ethnicity who did not have pre-existing diseases and conditions that could affect their physical activity. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the association of television screen time and computer/reading time with cardio-metabolic biomarkers [blood pressure, lipids, glucose, adiponectin, C reactive protein and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)]. Path analysis was used to examine the role of mediators of the observed association. Longer television screen time was significantly associated with higher systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglycerides, C reactive protein, HOMA-IR, and lower adiponectin after adjustment for potential socio-demographic and lifestyle confounders. Dietary factors and body mass index, but not physical activity, were potential mediators that explained most of these associations between television screen time and cardio-metabolic biomarkers. The associations of television screen time with triglycerides and HOMA-IR were only partly explained by dietary factors and body mass index. No association was observed between computer/ reading time and worse levels of cardio-metabolic biomarkers. In this urban Asian population, television screen time was associated with worse levels of various cardio-metabolic risk factors. This may reflect detrimental effects of television screen time on dietary habits rather than replacement of physical activity.

The impact of different scenarios for intermittent bladder catheterization on health state utilities: results from an internet-based time trade-off survey.

PubMed

Averbeck, Márcio Augusto; Krassioukov, Andrei; Thiruchelvam, Nikesh; Madersbacher, Helmut; Bøgelund, Mette; Igawa, Yasuhiko

2018-06-08

Intermittent catheterization (IC) is the gold standard for bladder management in patients with chronic urinary retention. Despite its medical benefits, IC-users experience a negative impact on their quality of life (QoL). For health economics based decision making, this impact is normally measured using generic QoL measures (such as EQ-5D) that estimate a single utility score which can be used to calculate Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). But these generic measures may not be sensitive to all relevant aspects of QoL affected by intermittent catheters. This study used alternative methods to estimate the health state utilities associated with different scenarios: using a multiple-use catheter, one-time-use catheter, pre-lubricated one-time-use catheter, and pre-lubricated one-time-use catheter with one less urinary tract infection (UTI) per year. Health state utilities were elicited through an internet-based Time Trade-Off (TTO) survey in adult volunteers representing the general population in Canada and the UK. Health states were developed to represent the catheters based on the following four attributes: steps and time needed for IC process, pain and the frequency of UTIs. The survey was completed by 956 respondents. One-time-use catheters, pre-lubricated one-time-use catheters and ready-to-use catheters were preferred to multiple-use catheters. The utility gains were associated with the following features: one-time-use (Canada: +0.013, UK: +0.021), ready-to-use (all: +0.017), and one less UTI/year (all: +0.011). Internet-based survey responders may have valued health states differently than the rest of the population: this might be a source of bias. Steps and time needed for the IC process, pain related to IC, and the frequency of UTIs have a significant impact on IC related utilities. These values could be incorporated into a cost utility analysis.

Usual Populations, Unusual Individuals: Insights into the Behavior and Management of Asian Elephants in Fragmented Landscapes

PubMed Central

Srinivasaiah, Nishant M.; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Sinha, Anindya

2012-01-01

Background A dearth in understanding the behavior of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) at the scale of populations and individuals has left important management issues, particularly related to human-elephant conflict (HEC), unresolved. Evaluation of differences in behavior and decision-making among individual elephants across groups in response to changing local ecological settings is essential to fill this gap in knowledge and to improve our approaches towards the management and conservation of elephants. Methodology/Principal Findings We hypothesized certain behavioral decisions that would be made by Asian elephants as reflected in their residence time and movement rates, time-activity budgets, social interactions and group dynamics in response to resource availability and human disturbance in their habitat. This study is based on 200 h of behavioral observations on 60 individually identified elephants and a 184-km2 grid-based survey of their natural and anthropogenic habitats within and outside the Bannerghatta National Park, southern India during the dry season. At a general population level, the behavioral decisions appeared to be guided by the gender, age and group-type of the elephants. At the individual level, the observed variation could be explained only by the idiosyncratic behaviors of individuals and that of their associating conspecific individuals. Recursive partitioning classification trees for residence time of individual elephants indicated that the primary decisions were taken by individuals, independently of their above-mentioned biological and ecological attributes. Conclusions/Significance Decision-making by Asian elephants thus appears to be determined at two levels, that of the population and, more importantly, the individual. Models based on decision-making by individual elephants have the potential to predict conflict in fragmented landscapes that, in turn, could aid in mitigating HEC. Thus, we must target individuals, in addition to populations, in our efforts to manage and conserve this threatened species, particularly in human-dominated landscapes. PMID:22916135

Usual populations, unusual individuals: insights into the behavior and management of Asian elephants in fragmented landscapes.

PubMed

Srinivasaiah, Nishant M; Anand, Vijay D; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Sinha, Anindya

2012-01-01

A dearth in understanding the behavior of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) at the scale of populations and individuals has left important management issues, particularly related to human-elephant conflict (HEC), unresolved. Evaluation of differences in behavior and decision-making among individual elephants across groups in response to changing local ecological settings is essential to fill this gap in knowledge and to improve our approaches towards the management and conservation of elephants. We hypothesized certain behavioral decisions that would be made by Asian elephants as reflected in their residence time and movement rates, time-activity budgets, social interactions and group dynamics in response to resource availability and human disturbance in their habitat. This study is based on 200 h of behavioral observations on 60 individually identified elephants and a 184-km(2) grid-based survey of their natural and anthropogenic habitats within and outside the Bannerghatta National Park, southern India during the dry season. At a general population level, the behavioral decisions appeared to be guided by the gender, age and group-type of the elephants. At the individual level, the observed variation could be explained only by the idiosyncratic behaviors of individuals and that of their associating conspecific individuals. Recursive partitioning classification trees for residence time of individual elephants indicated that the primary decisions were taken by individuals, independently of their above-mentioned biological and ecological attributes. Decision-making by Asian elephants thus appears to be determined at two levels, that of the population and, more importantly, the individual. Models based on decision-making by individual elephants have the potential to predict conflict in fragmented landscapes that, in turn, could aid in mitigating HEC. Thus, we must target individuals, in addition to populations, in our efforts to manage and conserve this threatened species, particularly in human-dominated landscapes.

Testing the Latino paradox in Latin America: a population-based study of Intra-regional immigrants in Chile.

PubMed

Cabieses, Baltica; Tunstall, Helena; Pickett, Kate

2013-10-01

Several studies in high-income countries report better health status of immigrants compared to the local population ("healthy migrant" effect), regardless of their socioeconomic deprivation. This is known as the Latino paradox. To test the Latino paradox within Latin America by assessing the health of international immigrants to Chile, most of them from Latin American countries, and comparing them to the Chilean-born. Secondary data analysis of the population-based CASEN survey-2006. Three health outcomes were included: disability, illness/accident, and cancer/chronic condition (dichotomous). Demographics (age, sex, marital status, urban/rural, ethnicity), socioeconomic-status (SES: educational level, employment status and household income per-capita), and material standards (overcrowding, sanitation, housing quality). Crude and adjusted weighted regression models were performed. One percent of Chile's population were immigrants, mainly from other Latin American countries. A "healthy migrant" effect appeared within the total immigrant population: this group had a significantly lower crude prevalence of almost all health indicators than the Chilean-born, which remained after adjusting for various demographic characteristics. However, this effect lost significance when adjusting by SES for most outcomes. The Latino paradox was not observed for international immigrants compared to the local population in Chile. Also, health of immigrants with the longest time of residency showed similar health rates to the Chilean-born. The Latino paradox was not observed in Chile. Protecting low SES immigrants in Chile could have large positive effects in their health at arrival and over time.

Urinary bladder cancer treated with radical cystectomy: perioperative parameters and early complications prospectively registered in a national population-based database.

PubMed

Jerlström, Tomas; Gårdmark, Truls; Carringer, Malcolm; Holmäng, Sten; Liedberg, Fredrik; Hosseini, Abolfazl; Malmström, Per-Uno; Ljungberg, Börje; Hagberg, Oskar; Jahnson, Staffan

2014-08-01

Cystectomy combined with pelvic lymph-node dissection and urinary diversion entails high morbidity and mortality. Improvements are needed, and a first step is to collect information on the current situation. In 2011, this group took the initiative to start a population-based database in Sweden (population 9.5 million in 2011) with prospective registration of patients and complications until 90 days after cystectomy. This article reports findings from the first year of registration. Participation was voluntary, and data were reported by local urologists or research nurses. Perioperative parameters and early complications classified according to the modified Clavien system were registered, and selected variables of possible importance for complications were analysed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. During 2011, 285 (65%) of 435 cystectomies performed in Sweden were registered in the database, the majority reported by the seven academic centres. Median blood loss was 1000 ml, operating time 318 min, and length of hospital stay 15 days. Any complications were registered for 103 patients (36%). Clavien grades 1-2 and 3-5 were noted in 19% and 15%, respectively. Thirty-seven patients (13%) were reoperated on at least once. In logistic regression analysis elevated risk of complications was significantly associated with operating time exceeding 318 min in both univariate and multivariate analysis, and with age 76-89 years only in multivariate analysis. It was feasible to start a national population-based registry of radical cystectomies for bladder cancer. The evaluation of the first year shows an increased risk of complications in patients with longer operating time and higher age. The results agree with some previously published series but should be interpreted with caution considering the relatively low coverage, which is expected to be higher in the future.

Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Frazier, Tim G.

2017-01-01

Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.

Analysis of bacterial populations in the environment using two-dimensional gel electrophoresis of genomic DNA and complementary DNA.

PubMed

Liu, Guo-Hua; Nakamura, Tatsuo; Amemiya, Takashi; Rajendran, Narasimmalu; Itoh, Kiminori

2011-01-01

Two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DGE) mapping of genomic DNA and complementary DNA (cDNA) amplicons was attempted to analyze total and active bacterial populations within soil and activated sludge samples. Distinct differences in the number and species of bacterial populations and those that were metabolically active at the time of sampling were visually observed especially for the soil community. Statistical analyses and sequencing based on the 2-DGE data further revealed the relationships between total and active bacterial populations within each community. This high-resolution technique would be useful for obtaining a better understanding of bacterial population structures in the environment.

Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.

PubMed

O'Neil, Caroline A; Sattenspiel, Lisa

2010-01-01

Previous attempts to study the 1918-1919 flu in three small communities in central Manitoba have used both three-community population-based and single-community agent-based models. These studies identified critical factors influencing epidemic spread, but they also left important questions unanswered. The objective of this project was to design a more realistic agent-based model that would overcome limitations of earlier models and provide new insights into these outstanding questions. The new model extends the previous agent-based model to three communities so that results can be compared to those from the population-based model. Sensitivity testing was conducted, and the new model was used to investigate the influence of seasonal settlement and mobility patterns, the geographic heterogeneity of the observed 1918-1919 epidemic in Manitoba, and other questions addressed previously. Results confirm outcomes from the population-based model that suggest that (a) social organization and mobility strongly influence the timing and severity of epidemics and (b) the impact of the epidemic would have been greater if it had arrived in the summer rather than the winter. New insights from the model suggest that the observed heterogeneity among communities in epidemic impact was not unusual and would have been the expected outcome given settlement structure and levels of interaction among communities. Application of an agent-based computer simulation has helped to better explain observed patterns of spread of the 1918-1919 flu epidemic in central Manitoba. Contrasts between agent-based and population-based models illustrate the advantages of agent-based models for the study of small populations. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A genetic algorithm based global search strategy for population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model selection

PubMed Central

Sale, Mark; Sherer, Eric A

2015-01-01

The current algorithm for selecting a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model is based on the well-established forward addition/backward elimination method. A central strength of this approach is the opportunity for a modeller to continuously examine the data and postulate new hypotheses to explain observed biases. This algorithm has served the modelling community well, but the model selection process has essentially remained unchanged for the last 30 years. During this time, more robust approaches to model selection have been made feasible by new technology and dramatic increases in computation speed. We review these methods, with emphasis on genetic algorithm approaches and discuss the role these methods may play in population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model selection. PMID:23772792

Prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy and Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders among the general and Aboriginal populations in Canada and the United States.

PubMed

Popova, Svetlana; Lange, Shannon; Probst, Charlotte; Parunashvili, Nino; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-01-01

Prenatal alcohol exposure may cause a number of health complications for the mother and developing fetus, including Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD). This study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of i) alcohol use (any amount) and binge drinking (4 or more standard drinks on a single occasion) during pregnancy, and ii) Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) and FASD among the general and Aboriginal populations in Canada and the United States, based on the available literature. Comprehensive systematic literature searches and meta-analyses, assuming a random-effects model, were conducted. It was revealed that about 10% and 15% of pregnant women in the general population consume alcohol in Canada and the United States, respectively, and that about 3% of women engage in binge drinking during pregnancy in both countries. However, the prevalence of alcohol use during pregnancy in the Aboriginal populations of the United States and Canada were found to be approximately 3-4 times higher, respectively, compared to the general population. Even more alarmingly, it was estimated that approximately one in five women in the Aboriginal populations in both countries engage in binge drinking during pregnancy. Further, among the general population of Canada, the pooled prevalence was estimated to be about 1 per 1000 for FAS and 5 per 1000 for FASD. However, compared to the general population, the prevalence of FAS and FASD among the Aboriginal population in Canada was estimated to be 38 times and 16 times higher, respectively. With respect to the United States, the pooled prevalence of FAS and FASD was estimated to be about 2 per 1000 and 15 per 1,000, respectively, among the general population, and 4 per 1000 and 10 per 1,000, respectively, among the Aboriginal population. The FAS and FASD pooled prevalence estimates presented here should be used with caution due to the limited number of existing studies and their methodological limitations. Based on the results of the current study, it is evident that there is an urgent need for implementing more effective national prevention and surveillance strategies to monitor and lower the prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy and FASD. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.. All rights reserved.

Caste- and ethnicity-based inequalities in HIV/AIDS-related knowledge gap: a case of Nepal.

PubMed

Atteraya, Madhu; Kimm, HeeJin; Song, In Han

2015-05-01

Caste- and ethnicity-based inequalities are major obstacles to achieving health equity. The authors investigated whether there is any association between caste- and ethnicity-based inequalities and HIV-related knowledge within caste and ethnic populations. They used the 2011 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally represented cross-sectional study data set. The study sample consisted of 11,273 women between 15 and 49 years of age. Univariate and logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between caste- and ethnicity-based inequalities and HIV-related knowledge. The study sample was divided into high Hindu caste (47.9 percent), "untouchable" caste (18.4 percent), and indigenous populations (33.7 percent). Within the study sample, the high-caste population was found to have the greatest knowledge of the means by which HIV is prevented and transmitted. After controlling for socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, untouchables were the least knowledgeable. The odds ratio for incomplete knowledge about transmission among indigenous populations was 1.27 times higher than that for high Hindu castes, but there was no significant difference in knowledge of preventive measures. The findings suggest the existence of a prevailing HIV knowledge gap. This in turn suggests that appropriate steps need to be implemented to convey complete knowledge to underprivileged populations.

Population structure and genotypic variation of Crataegus pontica inferred by molecular markers.

PubMed

Rahmani, Mohammad-Shafie; Shabanian, Naghi; Khadivi-Khub, Abdollah; Woeste, Keith E; Badakhshan, Hedieh; Alikhani, Leila

2015-11-01

Information about the natural patterns of genetic variability and their evolutionary bases are of fundamental practical importance for sustainable forest management and conservation. In the present study, the genetic diversity of 164 individuals from fourteen natural populations of Crataegus pontica K.Koch was assessed for the first time using three genome-based molecular techniques; inter-retrotransposon amplified polymorphism (IRAP); inter-simple sequence repeats (ISSR) and start codon targeted (SCoT) polymorphism. IRAP, ISSR and SCoT analyses yielded 126, 254 and 199 scorable amplified bands, respectively, of which 90.48, 93.37 and 83.78% were polymorphic. ISSR revealed efficiency over IRAP and SCoT due to high effective multiplex ratio, marker index and resolving power. The dendrograms based on the markers used and combined data divided individuals into three major clusters. The correlation between the coefficient matrices for the IRAP, ISSR and SCoT data was significant. A higher level of genetic variation was observed within populations than among populations based on the markers used. The lower divergence levels depicted among the studied populations could be seen as evidence of gene flow. The promotion of gene exchange will be very beneficial to conserve and utilize the enormous genetic variability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of a dynamic population-based model for evaluation of exposure reduction strategies in the baking industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meijster, Tim; Warren, Nick; Heederik, Dick; Tielemans, Erik

2009-02-01

Recently a dynamic population model was developed that simulates a population of bakery workers longitudinally through time and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker. Input for this model comes from cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological studies which allowed estimation of exposure response relationships and disease transition probabilities This model allows us to study the development of diseases and transitions between disease states over time in relation to determinants of disease including flour dust and/or allergen exposure. Furthermore it enables more realistic modelling of the health impact of different intervention strategies at the workplace (e.g. changes in exposure may take several years to impact on ill-health and often occur as a gradual trend). A large dataset of individual full-shift exposure measurements and real-time exposure measurements were used to obtain detailed insight into the effectiveness of control measures and other determinants of exposure. Given this information a population wide reduction of the median exposure with 50% was evaluated in this paper.

Prostate cancer, benign prostatic hyperplasia and physical activity in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Lacey, J V; Deng, J; Dosemeci, M; Gao, Y T; Mostofi, F K; Sesterhenn, I A; Xie, T; Hsing, A W

2001-04-01

Studies suggest that increased levels of physical activity might decrease the risk of prostate cancer. We ascertained lifetime measures of activity in a population-based case-control study of prostate cancer in Shanghai, China to investigate physical activity in a population where the incidence of prostate cancer is low but rising. In all, 238 men with prostate cancer, diagnosed 1993-1995, were identified through a rapid reporting system. A second group of 206 men with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) was matched to prostate cancer cases, and 471 age-matched and population-based controls were identified from urban Shanghai. Through personal interviews, we ascertained all daily, occupational, and recreational activities at ages 20-29, ages 40-49, and in 1988 to generate hours spent sleeping, sitting, in moderate activity, and in vigorous activity. Time spent per week in different activities was converted to metabolic equivalents (MET-h) and energy expended. Time spent in, MET-h of, and energy expended in physical activities were not consistently related to either prostate cancer or BPH when compared to controls. Few men reported regular vigorous activity. Occupational activity, based on an energy expenditure index using job titles, was suggestively associated with a decreased risk of BPH, but not associated with prostate cancer. Associations did not vary according to age or stage of prostate cancer at diagnosis. Our results, based on regular physical activity, occupational activity, hours in activities, MET-h, and energy expended, did not support a protective role of physical activity in prostate cancer or BPH for men in a low-risk population.

Effect of water hardness on cardiovascular mortality: an ecological time series approach.

PubMed

Lake, I R; Swift, L; Catling, L A; Abubakar, I; Sabel, C E; Hunter, P R

2010-12-01

Numerous studies have suggested an inverse relationship between drinking water hardness and cardiovascular disease. However, the weight of evidence is insufficient for the WHO to implement a health-based guideline for water hardness. This study followed WHO recommendations to assess the feasibility of using ecological time series data from areas exposed to step changes in water hardness to investigate this issue. Monthly time series of cardiovascular mortality data, subdivided by age and sex, were systematically collected from areas reported to have undergone step changes in water hardness, calcium and magnesium in England and Wales between 1981 and 2005. Time series methods were used to investigate the effect of water hardness changes on mortality. No evidence was found of an association between step changes in drinking water hardness or drinking water calcium and cardiovascular mortality. The lack of areas with large populations and a reasonable change in magnesium levels precludes a definitive conclusion about the impact of this cation. We use our results on the variability of the series to consider the data requirements (size of population, time of water hardness change) for such a study to have sufficient power. Only data from areas with large populations (>500,000) are likely to be able to detect a change of the size suggested by previous studies (rate ratio of 1.06). Ecological time series studies of populations exposed to changes in drinking water hardness may not be able to provide conclusive evidence on the links between water hardness and cardiovascular mortality unless very large populations are studied. Investigations of individuals may be more informative.

Population Health Management for Older Adults

PubMed Central

Tkatch, Rifky; Musich, Shirley; MacLeod, Stephanie; Alsgaard, Kathleen; Hawkins, Kevin; Yeh, Charlotte S.

2016-01-01

Background: The older adult population is expanding, living longer, with multiple chronic conditions. Understanding and managing their needs over time is an integral part of defining successful aging. Population health is used to describe the measurement and health outcomes of a population. Objectives: To define population health as applied to older adults, summarize lessons learned from current research, and identify potential interventions designed to promote successful aging and improved health for this population. Method: Online search engines were utilized to identify research on population health and health interventions for older adults. Results: Population health management (PHM) is one strategy to promote the health and well-being of target populations. Interventions promoting health across a continuum tend to be disease, risk, or health behavior specific rather than encompassing a global concept of health. Conclusion: Many existing interventions for older adults are simply research based with limited generalizability; as such, further work in this area is warranted. PMID:28680938

Household costs and time to seek care for pregnancy related complications: The role of results-based financing.

PubMed

Chinkhumba, Jobiba; De Allegri, Manuela; Mazalale, Jacob; Brenner, Stephan; Mathanga, Don; Muula, Adamson S; Robberstad, Bjarne

2017-01-01

Results-based financing (RBF) schemes-including performance based financing (PBF) and conditional cash transfers (CCT)-are increasingly being used to encourage use and improve quality of institutional health care for pregnant women in order to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality in low-income countries. While there is emerging evidence that RBF can increase service use and quality, little is known on the impact of RBF on costs and time to seek care for obstetric complications, although the two represent important dimensions of access. We conducted this study to fill the existing gap in knowledge by investigating the impact of RBF (PBF+CCT) on household costs and time to seek care for obstetric complications in four districts in Malawi. The analysis included data on 2,219 women with obstetric complications from three waves of a population-based survey conducted at baseline in 2013 and repeated in 2014(midline) and 2015(endline). Using a before and after approach with controls, we applied generalized linear models to study the association between RBF and household costs and time to seek care. Results indicated that receipt of RBF was associated with a significant reduction in the expected mean time to seek care for women experiencing an obstetric complication. Relative to non-RBF, time to seek care in RBF areas decreased by 27.3% (95%CI: 28.4-25.9) at midline and 34.2% (95%CI: 37.8-30.4) at endline. No substantial change in household costs was observed. We conclude that the reduced time to seek care is a manifestation of RBF induced quality improvements, prompting faster decisions on care seeking at household level. Our results suggest RBF may contribute to timely emergency care seeking and thus ultimately reduce maternal and neonatal mortality in beneficiary populations.

A population-based survey on physical inactivity and leisure time physical activity among adults in Chiang Mai, Thailand, 2014.

PubMed

Thanamee, Sanhapan; Pinyopornpanish, Kanokporn; Wattanapisit, Apichai; Suerungruang, Suparerk; Thaikla, Kanittha; Jiraporncharoen, Wichuda; Angkurawaranon, Chaisiri

2017-01-01

Reducing physical inactivity among the population is a challenge for many nations. Targeting leisure time physical activity (LTPA) may be useful in increasing overall physical activity as it is assumed it is associated with a higher degree of free choice and personal preference than physical activity at work and during travel. The study explored the prevalence of physical inactivity and focused on the overall level of energy expenditure and energy level spent during leisure time among those who were physically inactive and assessed the stages of change for LTPA among those who were physically inactive. A population-based survey was conducted in 2014 in Chiang Mai, Thailand using a stratified two-stage cluster sampling technique. The Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) was used to collect the data on physical activity. Sufficient levels of physical activity (PA) were defined as ≥150 min/week of moderate-intensity PA or ≥75 min/week of vigorous-intensity PA or ≥600 metabolic equivalent of task (MET)-minutes/week. Weighted analyses were used to estimate the prevalence of physical inactivity, the total energy expenditure and expenditure during LTPA as well as stages of change among the physically inactive population. A total of 1744 people (808 men and 936 women), aged 15 to 64 years, participated in the study. We estimated that a quarter (26%) of the population were physically inactive. Physical inactivity was more commonly found among women than men in most age groups. LTPA contributed a small proportion of overall PA. On average, physically inactive men spent 132.8 MET-minutes/week and inactive women spent 208.2 MET-minutes/week in overall PA which is well below the 600 MET-minutes/week recommend by the World Health Organization. Around 75% of physically inactive people had no intention of engaging in regular LTPA. About a quarter of the investigative population were physically inactive. Most physically inactive members of the population participate in low levels of LTPA, but the majority has no intention of increasing PA during leisure time. A large-scale health promotion program is needed, and it should focus on an approach for the pre-contemplated population.

An Ecohydrological Approach to the Resiliency and Stability of Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña Alzate, S.; Canon Barriga, J. E.

2013-12-01

We introduce a simplified ecohydrological model to quantitatively assess the resiliency and stability of ecosystems. The proposed model couples a hydrological soil moisture balance with a set of spatiotemporal dynamics of systems and agent-based algorithms to represent the interactions among several plant populations in a gridded area under different water, soil and temperature constraints. The model also allows disturbances, representing mostly the effects of deforestation practices. The simulated ecosystem, composed by a set of plant populations, includes allometric rules (i.e., power laws for generational and reproductive times, linear approximations for water and temperature gains, losses and optimal values and a set of intra and interspecific interaction rules based on high, optimal and low competition responses among the populations). Disturbances are determined by a clearance of populations in a defined area within the model's domain. The effects of climate variability can be also incorporated through precipitation and temperature time series that exhibit trends and heteroskedasticity. Resiliency and stability are calculated with modified indices that are used in hydrology, in this case to determine the ability of the ecosystem to recover from a disturbance. The model represents different types of plant phenotypes showing exponential growth in the first steps of the simulations. The indices, evaluated on each population and over the structure of the entire ecosystem, show how different populations respond differently to disturbances, following behaviors similar to those expected in nature, like high reproduction rates on gregarious plants with short generation times, and low densities in plants with high generations times. The selection of plant populations was mainly focused on the concept of biodiversity with emphasis on tropical regions. The model can represent the spatial and temporal succession of the ecosystem after being disturbed. The model also shows the differences between a disturbed and undisturbed ecosystem in a temporal scale, and how the differences in the phenotypical characteristics of plant populations can be advantageous or disadvantageous when they are disturbed. This ecohydrological model is intended to be used as an aid for making decisions about restoration and conservation practices, and also to help understanding resilience and stability of ecosystems, especially in tropical forests under climate change scenarios. Acknowledgements: authors thank the financial support of COLCIENCIAS (program Jovenes Investigadores e innovadores 2012), GAIA group and Universidad de Antioquia through its Sustainability Program 2011-2012.

[Study of the growth and development of Chlorella on "Kosmos-1887"].

PubMed

Sychev, V N; Levinskikh, M A; Livanskaia, O G

1989-01-01

The growth, development and population characteristics of Chlorella cells flown for 13 days in space were investigated during their postflight cultivation. The growth rate of flown algae did not differ from that of ground-based controls in terms of increases in the cell number and biomass. All basic parameters of the specimens (generation time, number of developing autospores, time ratio of developmental phases) were ontogentically normal. Exposure of the algae to space flight as a component of the algobacterial cenosis--fish autotrophic-heterotrophic system produced no significant effect of the population or individual specimens during their postflight cultivation.

European Invasion of North American Pinus strobus at Large and Fine Scales: High Genetic Diversity and Fine-Scale Genetic Clustering over Time in the Adventive Range

PubMed Central

Mandák, Bohumil; Hadincová, Věroslava; Mahelka, Václav; Wildová, Radka

2013-01-01

Background North American Pinus strobus is a highly invasive tree species in Central Europe. Using ten polymorphic microsatellite loci we compared various aspects of the large-scale genetic diversity of individuals from 30 sites in the native distribution range with those from 30 sites in the European adventive distribution range. To investigate the ascertained pattern of genetic diversity of this intercontinental comparison further, we surveyed fine-scale genetic diversity patterns and changes over time within four highly invasive populations in the adventive range. Results Our data show that at the large scale the genetic diversity found within the relatively small adventive range in Central Europe, surprisingly, equals the diversity found within the sampled area in the native range, which is about thirty times larger. Bayesian assignment grouped individuals into two genetic clusters separating North American native populations from the European, non-native populations, without any strong genetic structure shown over either range. In the case of the fine scale, our comparison of genetic diversity parameters among the localities and age classes yielded no evidence of genetic diversity increase over time. We found that SGS differed across age classes within the populations under study. Old trees in general completely lacked any SGS, which increased over time and reached its maximum in the sapling stage. Conclusions Based on (1) the absence of difference in genetic diversity between the native and adventive ranges, together with the lack of structure in the native range, and (2) the lack of any evidence of any temporal increase in genetic diversity at four highly invasive populations in the adventive range, we conclude that population amalgamation probably first happened in the native range, prior to introduction. In such case, there would have been no need for multiple introductions from previously isolated populations, but only several introductions from genetically diverse populations. PMID:23874648

[Population change and social organization].

PubMed

Tu, J C

1986-06-01

This paper, published in Taiwan in June, 1986, studies the impact of demographic changes on social organization through stable population theory as applied to the USA. The stable population model indicates a constant age differential between death ratio and birth ratio maintained for a period of time in a given population. Since the 1950's, the population growth rate in the US has been 1.5%; social security tax revenue should increase 50% to maintain equilibrium. According to the US Census Bureau, in 1940, 11 people in 100 were age 65 or over; in 1980, 19 per 100; and 1 estimate places 32 in 100 over 65 in the year 2030. In 90 years the proportion of senior citizens will increase 3 times; social security taxes should consequently also increase 3 times. The stable population model would mean that social security tax should double its current rate to maintain equilibrium. However, based on the actual change in the population's age structure, social security tax should in fact increase at least 3 times. From 1940 to the present, social security tax revenue has already increased 3 times. Turning to education, in 1961, 4.39 million babies were born in the US. By the mid-1970's, births had slowed to an annual average of 3 million. The decrease in number of university students and posts available to Ph.Ds follows the birth rate change of 20 years earlier. Many graduate institutions will be influenced by this decrease in births. From another perspective, the birth rate decrease has also reduced the educational burden on society, and should provide more opportunities and resources. However, in the American educational system, research opportunities are determined by teaching positions which are dependent upon university enrollment figures. The US Census Bureau predicts that enrollment rates must double in order to compensate for the decrease in university age population.

Isolation–By–Distance–and–Time in a stepping–stone model

PubMed Central

Duforet-Frebourg, Nicolas; Slatkin, Montgomery

2015-01-01

With the great advances in ancient DNA extraction, genetic data are now obtained from geographically separated individuals from both present and past. However, population genetics theory about the joint effect of space and time has not been thoroughly studied. Based on the classical stepping–stone model, we develop the theory of Isolation by Distance and Time. We derive the correlation of allele frequencies between demes in the case where ancient samples are present, and investigate the impact of edge effects with forward–in–time simulations. We also derive results about coalescent times in circular and toroidal models. As one of the most common ways to investigate population structure is principal components analysis (PCA), we evaluate the impact of our theory on PCA plots. Our results demonstrate that time between samples is an important factor. Ancient samples tend to be drawn to the center of a PCA plot. PMID:26592162

Modelling and finite-time stability analysis of psoriasis pathogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oza, Harshal B.; Pandey, Rakesh; Roper, Daniel; Al-Nuaimi, Yusur; Spurgeon, Sarah K.; Goodfellow, Marc

2017-08-01

A new systems model of psoriasis is presented and analysed from the perspective of control theory. Cytokines are treated as actuators to the plant model that govern the cell population under the reasonable assumption that cytokine dynamics are faster than the cell population dynamics. The analysis of various equilibria is undertaken based on singular perturbation theory. Finite-time stability and stabilisation have been studied in various engineering applications where the principal paradigm uses non-Lipschitz functions of the states. A comprehensive study of the finite-time stability properties of the proposed psoriasis dynamics is carried out. It is demonstrated that the dynamics are finite-time convergent to certain equilibrium points rather than asymptotically or exponentially convergent. This feature of finite-time convergence motivates the development of a modified version of the Michaelis-Menten function, frequently used in biology. This framework is used to model cytokines as fast finite-time actuators.

Inferring time derivatives including cell growth rates using Gaussian processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Peter S.; Stevenson, Keiran; Leary, Allen; Montano-Gutierrez, Luis F.; Clark, Ivan B. N.; Vogel, Jackie; Pilizota, Teuta

2016-12-01

Often the time derivative of a measured variable is of as much interest as the variable itself. For a growing population of biological cells, for example, the population's growth rate is typically more important than its size. Here we introduce a non-parametric method to infer first and second time derivatives as a function of time from time-series data. Our approach is based on Gaussian processes and applies to a wide range of data. In tests, the method is at least as accurate as others, but has several advantages: it estimates errors both in the inference and in any summary statistics, such as lag times, and allows interpolation with the corresponding error estimation. As illustrations, we infer growth rates of microbial cells, the rate of assembly of an amyloid fibril and both the speed and acceleration of two separating spindle pole bodies. Our algorithm should thus be broadly applicable.

Experimental design and efficient parameter estimation in preclinical pharmacokinetic studies.

PubMed

Ette, E I; Howie, C A; Kelman, A W; Whiting, B

1995-05-01

Monte Carlo simulation technique used to evaluate the effect of the arrangement of concentrations on the efficiency of estimation of population pharmacokinetic parameters in the preclinical setting is described. Although the simulations were restricted to the one compartment model with intravenous bolus input, they provide the basis of discussing some structural aspects involved in designing a destructive ("quantic") preclinical population pharmacokinetic study with a fixed sample size as is usually the case in such studies. The efficiency of parameter estimation obtained with sampling strategies based on the three and four time point designs were evaluated in terms of the percent prediction error, design number, individual and joint confidence intervals coverage for parameter estimates approaches, and correlation analysis. The data sets contained random terms for both inter- and residual intra-animal variability. The results showed that the typical population parameter estimates for clearance and volume were efficiently (accurately and precisely) estimated for both designs, while interanimal variability (the only random effect parameter that could be estimated) was inefficiently (inaccurately and imprecisely) estimated with most sampling schedules of the two designs. The exact location of the third and fourth time point for the three and four time point designs, respectively, was not critical to the efficiency of overall estimation of all population parameters of the model. However, some individual population pharmacokinetic parameters were sensitive to the location of these times.

Impact of Rainfall, Land-Cover and Population Growth on Groundwater - A Case Study From Karnataka State, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastav, R. K.; Chinnapa Reddy, A. R.

2015-12-01

Recent trends in climate, land-use pattern and population has affected almost every portable water resources in the world. Due to depleting surface water and untimely distribution of precipitation, the demand to use groundwater has increased considerably. Further recent studies have shown that the groundwater stress is more in developing countries like India. This study focuses on understanding the impacts of three major factors (i.e., rainfall, land-cover and population growth) effecting the groundwater levels. For this purpose, the correlation between the trends in groundwater time series is compared with trends in rainfall, land-cover and population growth. To detect the trends in time series, two statistical methods namely, least square method and Mann-Kendall method, are adopted. The results were analyzed based on the measurements from 1800 observation wells in the Karnataka state, India. The data is obtained for a total of 9 year time period ranging from 2005 to 2013. A gridded precipitation data of 0.5o× 0.5o over the entire region is used. The change in land-cover and population data was approximately obtained from the local governing bodies. The early results show significant correlation between rainfall and groundwater time series trends. The outcomes will assess the vulnerability of groundwater levels under changing physical and hydroclimatic conditions, especially under climate change.

Field-based high throughput phenotyping rapidly identifies genomic regions controlling yield components in rice

PubMed Central

Tanger, Paul; Klassen, Stephen; Mojica, Julius P.; Lovell, John T.; Moyers, Brook T.; Baraoidan, Marietta; Naredo, Maria Elizabeth B.; McNally, Kenneth L.; Poland, Jesse; Bush, Daniel R.; Leung, Hei; Leach, Jan E.; McKay, John K.

2017-01-01

To ensure food security in the face of population growth, decreasing water and land for agriculture, and increasing climate variability, crop yields must increase faster than the current rates. Increased yields will require implementing novel approaches in genetic discovery and breeding. Here we demonstrate the potential of field-based high throughput phenotyping (HTP) on a large recombinant population of rice to identify genetic variation underlying important traits. We find that detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) with HTP phenotyping is as accurate and effective as traditional labor-intensive measures of flowering time, height, biomass, grain yield, and harvest index. Genetic mapping in this population, derived from a cross of an modern cultivar (IR64) with a landrace (Aswina), identified four alleles with negative effect on grain yield that are fixed in IR64, demonstrating the potential for HTP of large populations as a strategy for the second green revolution. PMID:28220807

Estimating population size of Pygoscelid Penguins from TM data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Charles E., Jr.; Schwaller, Mathew R.; Dahmer, Paul A.

1987-01-01

An estimate was made toward a continent wide population of penguins. The results indicate that Thematic Mapper data can be used to identify penguin rookeries due to the unique reflectance properties of guano. Strong correlations exist between nesting populations and rookery area occupied by the birds. These correlations allow estimation of the number of nesting pairs in colonies. The success of remote sensing and biometric analyses leads one to believe that a continent wide estimate of penguin populations is possible based on a timely sample employing ground based and remote sensing techniques. Satellite remote sensing along the coastline may well locate previously undiscovered penguin nesting sites, or locate rookeries which have been assumed to exist for over a half century, but never located. Observations which found that penguins are one of the most sensitive elements in the complex of Southern Ocean ecosystems motivated this study.

Programmatic Impact of 5 Years of Mortality Surveillance of New York City Homeless Populations

PubMed Central

Marder, Dova; Begier, Elizabeth; Gutkovich, Alexander; Mos, Robert; Griffin, Angela; Zimmerman, Regina; Madsen, Ann

2013-01-01

A homeless mortality surveillance system identifies emerging trends in the health of the homeless population and provides this information to key stakeholders in a timely and ongoing manner to effect evidence-based, programmatic change. We describe the first 5 years of the New York City homeless mortality surveillance system and, for the first time in peer-reviewed literature, illustrate the impact of key elements of sustained surveillance (i.e., timely dissemination of aggregate mortality data and real-time sharing of information on individual homeless decedents) on the programs of New York City’s Department of Homeless Services. These key elements had a positive impact on the department’s programs that target sleep-related infant deaths and hypothermia, drug overdose, and alcohol-related deaths among homeless persons. PMID:24148068

Estimates of over-diagnosis of breast cancer due to population-based mammography screening in South Australia after adjustment for lead time effects.

PubMed

Beckmann, Kerri; Duffy, Stephen W; Lynch, John; Hiller, Janet; Farshid, Gelareh; Roder, David

2015-09-01

To estimate over-diagnosis due to population-based mammography screening using a lead time adjustment approach, with lead time measures based on symptomatic cancers only. Women aged 40-84 in 1989-2009 in South Australia eligible for mammography screening. Numbers of observed and expected breast cancer cases were compared, after adjustment for lead time. Lead time effects were modelled using age-specific estimates of lead time (derived from interval cancer rates and predicted background incidence, using maximum likelihood methods) and screening sensitivity, projected background breast cancer incidence rates (in the absence of screening), and proportions screened, by age and calendar year. Lead time estimates were 12, 26, 43 and 53 months, for women aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70-79 respectively. Background incidence rates were estimated to have increased by 0.9% and 1.2% per year for invasive and all breast cancer. Over-diagnosis among women aged 40-84 was estimated at 7.9% (0.1-12.0%) for invasive cases and 12.0% (5.7-15.4%) when including ductal carcinoma in-situ (DCIS). We estimated 8% over-diagnosis for invasive breast cancer and 12% inclusive of DCIS cancers due to mammography screening among women aged 40-84. These estimates may overstate the extent of over-diagnosis if the increasing prevalence of breast cancer risk factors has led to higher background incidence than projected. © The Author(s) 2015.

Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples

PubMed Central

Sevelius, Jae M.

2017-01-01

Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as “gray” literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Authors’ conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask about transgender identity may account for residual heterogeneity in our models. Public health implications. Under- or nonrepresentation of transgender individuals in population surveys is a barrier to understanding social determinants and health disparities faced by this population. We recommend using standardized questions to identify respondents with transgender and nonbinary gender identities, which will allow a more accurate population size estimate. PMID:28075632

Population-Based Assessment of Exposure to Risk Behaviors in Motion Pictures.

PubMed

Sargent, James D; Worth, Keilah A; Beach, Michael; Gerrard, Meg; Heatherton, Todd F

2008-01-01

The aim of most population-based studies of media is to relate a specific exposure to an outcome of interest. A research program has been developed that evaluates exposure to different components of movies in an attempt of assess the association of such exposure with the adoption of substance use during adolescence. To assess exposure to movie substance use, one must measure both viewing time and content. In developing the exposure measure, the study team was interested in circumventing a common problem in exposure measurement, where measures often conflate exposure to media with attention to media. Our aim in this paper is to present a validated measure of exposure to entertainment media, the Beach method, which combines recognition of a movie title with content analysis of the movie for substance use, to generate population based measures of exposure to substance use in this form of entertainment.

Population-Based Assessment of Exposure to Risk Behaviors in Motion Pictures

PubMed Central

Sargent, James D.; Worth, Keilah A.; Beach, Michael; Gerrard, Meg; Heatherton, Todd F.

2008-01-01

The aim of most population-based studies of media is to relate a specific exposure to an outcome of interest. A research program has been developed that evaluates exposure to different components of movies in an attempt of assess the association of such exposure with the adoption of substance use during adolescence. To assess exposure to movie substance use, one must measure both viewing time and content. In developing the exposure measure, the study team was interested in circumventing a common problem in exposure measurement, where measures often conflate exposure to media with attention to media. Our aim in this paper is to present a validated measure of exposure to entertainment media, the Beach method, which combines recognition of a movie title with content analysis of the movie for substance use, to generate population based measures of exposure to substance use in this form of entertainment. PMID:19122801

Immigration and leisure-time physical inactivity: a population-based study.

PubMed

Lindström, M; Sundquist, J

2001-05-01

To investigate the relationship between migration status and sedentary leisure-time physical activity status in the city of Malmö, Sweden. The public health survey in 1994 is a cross-sectional study. A total of 5,600 individuals aged 20-80 completed a postal questionnaire. The response rate was 71%. The population was categorized according to country of birth. Multivariate analysis was performed using a logistic regression model to investigate the importance of possible confounders for the differences in sedentary leisure-time physical activity status. The prevalence of a sedentary leisure-time physical activity status was 18.1% among men and 26.7% among women. The odds ratio of a sedentary leisure-time physical activity status was significantly higher among men born in Arabic-speaking countries, in All other countries, and among women born in Yugoslavia, Poland, Arabic-speaking countries, and the category all other countries', compared to the reference group born in Sweden. The multivariate analysis including age, sex, and education did not alter these results. There were significant ethnic differences in leisure-time physical activity status. This is a CVD risk factor that could be affected by intervention programs aimed at specific ethnic subgroups of the population.

SensiScreen® KRAS exon 2-sensitive simplex and multiplex real-time PCR-based assays for detection of KRAS exon 2 mutations

PubMed Central

Guldmann-Christensen, Mariann; Hauge Kyneb, Majbritt; Voogd, Kirsten; Andersen, Christina; Epistolio, Samantha; Merlo, Elisabetta; Yding Wolff, Tine; Hamilton-Dutoit, Stephen; Lorenzen, Jan; Christensen, Ulf Bech

2017-01-01

Activating mutations in codon 12 and codon 13 of the KRAS (Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog) gene are implicated in the development of several human cancer types and influence their clinical evaluation, treatment and prognosis. Numerous different methods for KRAS genotyping are currently available displaying a wide range of sensitivities, time to answer and requirements for laboratory equipment and user skills. Here we present SensiScreen® KRAS exon 2 simplex and multiplex CE IVD assays, that use a novel real-time PCR-based method for KRAS mutation detection based on PentaBase’s proprietary DNA analogue technology and designed to work on standard real-time PCR instruments. By means of the included BaseBlocker™ technology, we show that SensiScreen® specifically amplifies the mutated alleles of interest with no or highly subdued amplification of the wild type allele. Furthermore, serial dilutions of mutant DNA in a wild type background demonstrate that all SensiScreen® assays display a limit of detection that falls within the range of 0.25–1%. Finally, in three different colorectal cancer patient populations, SensiScreen® assays confirmed the KRAS genotype previously determined by commonly used methods for KRAS mutation testing, and notably, in two of the populations, SensiScreen® identified additional mutant positive cases not detected by common methods. PMID:28636636

Genotype imputation in a coalescent model with infinitely-many-sites mutation

PubMed Central

Huang, Lucy; Buzbas, Erkan O.; Rosenberg, Noah A.

2012-01-01

Empirical studies have identified population-genetic factors as important determinants of the properties of genotype-imputation accuracy in imputation-based disease association studies. Here, we develop a simple coalescent model of three sequences that we use to explore the theoretical basis for the influence of these factors on genotype-imputation accuracy, under the assumption of infinitely-many-sites mutation. Employing a demographic model in which two populations diverged at a given time in the past, we derive the approximate expectation and variance of imputation accuracy in a study sequence sampled from one of the two populations, choosing between two reference sequences, one sampled from the same population as the study sequence and the other sampled from the other population. We show that under this model, imputation accuracy—as measured by the proportion of polymorphic sites that are imputed correctly in the study sequence—increases in expectation with the mutation rate, the proportion of the markers in a chromosomal region that are genotyped, and the time to divergence between the study and reference populations. Each of these effects derives largely from an increase in information available for determining the reference sequence that is genetically most similar to the sequence targeted for imputation. We analyze as a function of divergence time the expected gain in imputation accuracy in the target using a reference sequence from the same population as the target rather than from the other population. Together with a growing body of empirical investigations of genotype imputation in diverse human populations, our modeling framework lays a foundation for extending imputation techniques to novel populations that have not yet been extensively examined. PMID:23079542

A Coalescent-Based Estimator of Admixture From DNA Sequences

PubMed Central

Wang, Jinliang

2006-01-01

A variety of estimators have been developed to use genetic marker information in inferring the admixture proportions (parental contributions) of a hybrid population. The majority of these estimators used allele frequency data, ignored molecular information that is available in markers such as microsatellites and DNA sequences, and assumed that mutations are absent since the admixture event. As a result, these estimators may fail to deliver an estimate or give rather poor estimates when admixture is ancient and thus mutations are not negligible. A previous molecular estimator based its inference of admixture proportions on the average coalescent times between pairs of genes taken from within and between populations. In this article I propose an estimator that considers the entire genealogy of all of the sampled genes and infers admixture proportions from the numbers of segregating sites in DNA sequence samples. By considering the genealogy of all sequences rather than pairs of sequences, this new estimator also allows the joint estimation of other interesting parameters in the admixture model, such as admixture time, divergence time, population size, and mutation rate. Comparative analyses of simulated data indicate that the new coalescent estimator generally yields better estimates of admixture proportions than the previous molecular estimator, especially when the parental populations are not highly differentiated. It also gives reasonably accurate estimates of other admixture parameters. A human mtDNA sequence data set was analyzed to demonstrate the method, and the analysis results are discussed and compared with those from previous studies. PMID:16624918

An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison Sage-Grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Phillips, Michael L.; Doherty, Paul F.

2014-01-01

Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.

Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

2017-01-01

Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

Time, tact, talent, and trust: essential ingredients of effective academic-community partnerships.

PubMed

Plowfield, Lisa Ann; Wheeler, Erlinda C; Raymond, Jean E

2005-01-01

Building strong partnerships between academic institutions and community health agencies requires a commitment to time, tactful communications, talented leaders, and trust. The essential elements of partnership building are discussed based on experiences of a mid-Atlantic nursing center, an academic health center established to provide care to underserved and vulnerable populations.

The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 1986.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Astin, Alexander W.; And Others

National normative data on characteristics of students entering college as first-time, full-time freshmen are presented, based on results of the fall 1986 Cooperative Institutional Research Program survey. The data are weighted to represent the population of freshmen. Extensive statistical data are reported separately for women and men, and for 37…

Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.

2013-01-01

Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

Population inversion in monolayer and bilayer graphene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gierz, Isabella; Mitrano, Matteo; Petersen, Jesse C.; Cacho, Cephise; Turcu, I. C. Edmond; Springate, Emma; Stöhr, Alexander; Köhler, Axel; Starke, Ulrich; Cavalleri, Andrea

2015-04-01

The recent demonstration of saturable absorption and negative optical conductivity in the Terahertz range in graphene has opened up new opportunities for optoelectronic applications based on this and other low dimensional materials. Recently, population inversion across the Dirac point has been observed directly by time- and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (tr-ARPES), revealing a relaxation time of only ∼130 femtoseconds. This severely limits the applicability of single layer graphene to, for example, Terahertz light amplification. Here we use tr-ARPES to demonstrate long-lived population inversion in bilayer graphene. The effect is attributed to the small band gap found in this compound. We propose a microscopic model for these observations and speculate that an enhancement of both the pump photon energy and the pump fluence may further increase this lifetime.

Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: coarse-graining a civil violence model.

PubMed

Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

2012-06-01

Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: Coarse-graining a civil violence model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A.; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.

2012-06-01

Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

Improving population management through pharmacist-primary care integration: a pilot study.

PubMed

Kennedy, Amanda G; Chen, Harry; Corriveau, Michele; MacLean, Charles D

2015-02-01

Pharmacists have unique skills that may benefit primary care practices. The objective of this demonstration project was to determine the impact of integrating pharmacists into patient-centered medical homes, with a focus on population management. Pharmacists were partnered into 5 primary care practices in Vermont 1 day per week to provide direct patient care, population-based medication management, and prescriber education. The main measures included a description of drug therapy problems identified and cost avoidance models. The pharmacists identified 708 drug therapy problems through direct patient care (336/708; 47.5%), population-based strategies (276/708; 38.9%), and education (96/708; 13.6%). Common population-based strategies included adjusting doses and discontinuing unnecessary medications. Pharmacists' recommendations to correct drug therapy problems were accepted by prescribers 86% of the time, when data about acceptance were known. Of the 49 recommendations not accepted, 47/49 (96%) were population-based and 2/49 (4%) were related to direct patient care. The cost avoidance model suggests $2.11 in cost was avoided for every $1.00 spent on a pharmacist ($373,092/$176,690). There was clear value in integrating pharmacists into primary care teams. Their inclusion prevented adverse drug events, avoided costs, and improved patient outcomes. Primary care providers should consider pharmacists well suited to offer direct patient care, population-based management, and prescriber education to their practices. To be successful, pharmacists must have full permission to document findings in the primary care practices' electronic health records. Given that many pharmacist services do not involve billable activities, sustainability requires identifying alternative funding mechanisms that do not rely on a traditional fee-for-service approach.

Safety from Crime and Physical Activity among Older Adults: A Population-Based Study in Brazil

PubMed Central

Weber Corseuil, Maruí; Hallal, Pedro Curi; Xavier Corseuil, Herton; Jayce Ceola Schneider, Ione; d'Orsi, Eleonora

2012-01-01

Objective. To evaluate the association between safety from crime and physical activity among older adults. Methods. A population-based survey including 1,656 older adults (60+ years) took place in Florianopolis, Brazil, in 2009-2010. Commuting and leisure time physical activity were assessed through the long version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Perception of safety from crime was assessed using the Neighbourhood Environment Walkability Scale. Results. Perceiving the neighbourhood as safe during the day was related to a 25% increased likelihood of being active in leisure time (95% CI 1.02–1.53); general perception of safety was also associated with a 25% increase in the likelihood of being active in leisure time (95% CI 1.01–1.54). Street lighting was related to higher levels of commuting physical activity (prevalence ratio: 1.89; 95% CI 1.28–2.80). Conclusions. Safety investments are essential for promoting physical activity among older adults in Brazil. PMID:22291723

Genetic rescue in an inbred Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) population.

PubMed

Hasselgren, Malin; Angerbjörn, Anders; Eide, Nina E; Erlandsson, Rasmus; Flagstad, Øystein; Landa, Arild; Wallén, Johan; Norén, Karin

2018-03-28

Isolation of small populations can reduce fitness through inbreeding depression and impede population growth. Outcrossing with only a few unrelated individuals can increase demographic and genetic viability substantially, but few studies have documented such genetic rescue in natural mammal populations. We investigate the effects of immigration in a subpopulation of the endangered Scandinavian arctic fox ( Vulpes lagopus ), founded by six individuals and isolated for 9 years at an extremely small population size. Based on a long-term pedigree (105 litters, 543 individuals) combined with individual fitness traits, we found evidence for genetic rescue. Natural immigration and gene flow of three outbred males in 2010 resulted in a reduction in population average inbreeding coefficient ( f ), from 0.14 to 0.08 within 5 years. Genetic rescue was further supported by 1.9 times higher juvenile survival and 1.3 times higher breeding success in immigrant first-generation offspring compared with inbred offspring. Five years after immigration, the population had more than doubled in size and allelic richness increased by 41%. This is one of few studies that has documented genetic rescue in a natural mammal population suffering from inbreeding depression and contributes to a growing body of data demonstrating the vital connection between genetics and individual fitness. © 2018 The Author(s).

Population waves and fertility fluctuations: social security implications.

PubMed

Boyle, P P; Freedman, R

1985-01-01

Based on Canadian data, this study discusses some of the methods which incorporate fertility variations into population forecasts. In particular, the relative shifts in the age structure which can have profound social and economic consequences on the context of a pay as you go national security system are analyzed. In terms of long range economic and social planning, oscillating growth projections are much more difficult to handle and plan for than the constant growth rates predicted by stable population theories. The impact of different types of fertility fluctuations are analyzed in terms of evolution of the dependency ration over time; the dependency ratio corresponds to the ratio of the retired lives of a population to those of the working age population. From the viewpoint of a social security system, the evolution of the dependency ratio over time is of particular importance. Other areas explored are: 1) cohort fertility variations; 2) periodic fertility fluctuations; and 3) limit cycle behaviors. In the context of a national social security plan, one possible response to the population projections would be to maintain the year by year level of the RA ratio (ratio of the population aged 65 and over to the population aged between 20 and 65) at its equilibrium value of 27.6% by adjusting the retirement age appropriately.

Disparities and Trends in Birth Outcomes, Perinatal and Infant Mortality in Aboriginal vs. Non-Aboriginal Populations: A Population-Based Study in Quebec, Canada 1996-2010.

PubMed

Chen, Lu; Xiao, Lin; Auger, Nathalie; Torrie, Jill; McHugh, Nancy Gros-Louis; Zoungrana, Hamado; Luo, Zhong-Cheng

2015-01-01

Aboriginal populations are at substantially higher risks of adverse birth outcomes, perinatal and infant mortality than their non-Aboriginal counterparts even in developed countries including Australia, U.S. and Canada. There is a lack of data on recent trends in Canada. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study (n = 254,410) using the linked vital events registry databases for singleton births in Quebec 1996-2010. Aboriginal (First Nations, Inuit) births were identified by mother tongue, place of residence and Indian Registration System membership. Outcomes included preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age, large-for-gestational-age, low birth weight, high birth weight, stillbirth, neonatal death, postneonatal death, perinatal death and infant death. Perinatal and infant mortality rates were 1.47 and 1.80 times higher in First Nations (10.1 and 7.3 per 1000, respectively), and 2.37 and 4.46 times higher in Inuit (16.3 and 18.1 per 1000, respectively) relative to non-Aboriginal (6.9 and 4.1 per 1000, respectively) births (all p<0.001). Compared to non-Aboriginal births, preterm birth rates were persistently (1.7-1.8 times) higher in Inuit, large-for-gestational-age birth rates were persistently (2.7-3.0 times) higher in First Nations births over the study period. Between 1996-2000 and 2006-2010, as compared to non-Aboriginal infants, the relative risk disparities increased for infant mortality (from 4.10 to 5.19 times) in Inuit, and for postneonatal mortality in Inuit (from 6.97 to 12.33 times) or First Nations (from 3.76 to 4.25 times) infants. Adjusting for maternal characteristics (age, marital status, parity, education and rural vs. urban residence) attenuated the risk differences, but significantly elevated risks remained in both Inuit and First Nations births for the risks of perinatal mortality (1.70 and 1.28 times, respectively), infant mortality (3.66 and 1.47 times, respectively) and postneonatal mortality (6.01 and 2.28 times, respectively) in Inuit and First Nations infants (all p<0.001). Aboriginal vs. non-Aboriginal disparities in adverse birth outcomes, perinatal and infant mortality are persistent or worsening over the recent decade in Quebec, strongly suggesting the needs for interventions to improve perinatal and infant health in Aboriginal populations, and for monitoring the trends in other regions in Canada.

Disparities and Trends in Birth Outcomes, Perinatal and Infant Mortality in Aboriginal vs. Non-Aboriginal Populations: A Population-Based Study in Quebec, Canada 1996–2010

PubMed Central

Chen, Lu; Xiao, Lin; Auger, Nathalie; Torrie, Jill; McHugh, Nancy Gros-Louis; Zoungrana, Hamado; Luo, Zhong-Cheng

2015-01-01

Background Aboriginal populations are at substantially higher risks of adverse birth outcomes, perinatal and infant mortality than their non-Aboriginal counterparts even in developed countries including Australia, U.S. and Canada. There is a lack of data on recent trends in Canada. Methods We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study (n = 254,410) using the linked vital events registry databases for singleton births in Quebec 1996–2010. Aboriginal (First Nations, Inuit) births were identified by mother tongue, place of residence and Indian Registration System membership. Outcomes included preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age, large-for-gestational-age, low birth weight, high birth weight, stillbirth, neonatal death, postneonatal death, perinatal death and infant death. Results Perinatal and infant mortality rates were 1.47 and 1.80 times higher in First Nations (10.1 and 7.3 per 1000, respectively), and 2.37 and 4.46 times higher in Inuit (16.3 and 18.1 per 1000, respectively) relative to non-Aboriginal (6.9 and 4.1 per 1000, respectively) births (all p<0.001). Compared to non-Aboriginal births, preterm birth rates were persistently (1.7–1.8 times) higher in Inuit, large-for-gestational-age birth rates were persistently (2.7–3.0 times) higher in First Nations births over the study period. Between 1996–2000 and 2006–2010, as compared to non-Aboriginal infants, the relative risk disparities increased for infant mortality (from 4.10 to 5.19 times) in Inuit, and for postneonatal mortality in Inuit (from 6.97 to 12.33 times) or First Nations (from 3.76 to 4.25 times) infants. Adjusting for maternal characteristics (age, marital status, parity, education and rural vs. urban residence) attenuated the risk differences, but significantly elevated risks remained in both Inuit and First Nations births for the risks of perinatal mortality (1.70 and 1.28 times, respectively), infant mortality (3.66 and 1.47 times, respectively) and postneonatal mortality (6.01 and 2.28 times, respectively) in Inuit and First Nations infants (all p<0.001). Conclusions Aboriginal vs. non-Aboriginal disparities in adverse birth outcomes, perinatal and infant mortality are persistent or worsening over the recent decade in Quebec, strongly suggesting the needs for interventions to improve perinatal and infant health in Aboriginal populations, and for monitoring the trends in other regions in Canada. PMID:26397838

Cancer of the ovary, fallopian tube, and peritoneum: a population-based comparison of the prognostic factors and outcomes.

PubMed

Rottmann, Miriam; Burges, A; Mahner, S; Anthuber, C; Beck, T; Grab, D; Schnelzer, A; Kiechle, M; Mayr, D; Pölcher, M; Schubert-Fritschle, G; Engel, J

2017-09-01

The objective was to compare the prognostic factors and outcomes among primary ovarian cancer (OC), fallopian tube cancer (FC), and peritoneal cancer (PC) patients in a population-based setting. We analysed 5399 OC, 327 FC, and 416 PC patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2014 in the catchment area of the Munich Cancer Registry (meanwhile 4.8 million inhabitants). Tumour site differences were examined by comparing prognostic factors, treatments, the time to progression, and survival. The effect of the tumour site was additionally analysed by a Cox regression model. The median age at diagnosis, histology, and FIGO stage significantly differed among the tumour sites (p < 0.001); PC patients were older, more often diagnosed with a serous subtype, and in FIGO stage III or IV. The time to progression and survival significantly differed among the tumour sites. When stratified by FIGO stage, the differences in time to progression disappeared, and the differences in survival considerably weakened. The differences in the multivariate survival analysis showed an almost identical outcome in PC patients (HR 1.07 [0.91-1.25]) and an improved survival of FC patients (HR 0.63 [0.49-0.81]) compared to that of OC patients. The comparison of OC, FC, and PC patients in this large-scale population-based study showed differences in the prognostic factors. These differences primarily account for the inferior outcome of PC patients, and for the improved survival of FC compared to OC patients.

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

Population decay time and distribution of exciton states analyzed by rate equations based on theoretical phononic and electron-collisional rate coefficients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, Kensuke; Ma, Bei; Ishitani, Yoshihiro

2017-11-01

Population distributions and transition fluxes of the A exciton in bulk GaN are theoretically analyzed using rate equations of states of the principal quantum number n up to 5 and the continuum. These rate equations consist of the terms of radiative, electron-collisional, and phononic processes. The dependence of the rate coefficients on temperature is revealed on the basis of the collisional-radiative model of hydrogen plasma for the electron-collisional processes and theoretical formulation using Fermi's "golden rule" for the phononic processes. The respective effects of the variations in electron, exciton, and lattice temperatures are exhibited. This analysis is a base of the discussion on nonthermal equilibrium states of carrier-exciton-phonon dynamics. It is found that the exciton dissociation is enhanced even below 150 K mainly by the increase in the lattice temperature. When the thermal-equilibrium temperature increases, the population fluxes between the states of n >1 and the continuum become more dominant. Below 20 K, the severe deviation from the Saha-Boltzmann distribution occurs owing to the interband excitation flux being higher than the excitation flux from the 1 S state. The population decay time of the 1 S state at 300 K is more than ten times longer than the recombination lifetime of excitons with kinetic energy but without the upper levels (n >1 and the continuum). This phenomenon is caused by a shift of population distribution to the upper levels. This phonon-exciton-radiation model gives insights into the limitations of conventional analyses such as the ABC model, the Arrhenius plot, the two-level model (n =1 and the continuum), and the neglect of the upper levels.

[Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends].

PubMed

Ordóñez, Dora; Aragón, Natalia; García, Luz Stella; Collazos, Paola; Bravo, Luis Eduardo

2014-01-01

To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC) in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Age-standardized (Segi's world population) incidence (ASIR) and mortality (ASMR) rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH) respectively. Annual percentage change (APC) was used to measure the changes in rates over time. 1637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6) and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4).The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5). There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Busulfan in Pediatric and Young Adult Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Cell Transplant: A Model-Based Dosing Algorithm for Personalized Therapy and Implementation into Routine Clinical Use

PubMed Central

Long-Boyle, Janel; Savic, Rada; Yan, Shirley; Bartelink, Imke; Musick, Lisa; French, Deborah; Law, Jason; Horn, Biljana; Cowan, Morton J.; Dvorak, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Background Population pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of busulfan in children have shown that individualized model-based algorithms provide improved targeted busulfan therapy when compared to conventional dosing. The adoption of population PK models into routine clinical practice has been hampered by the tendency of pharmacologists to develop complex models too impractical for clinicians to use. The authors aimed to develop a population PK model for busulfan in children that can reliably achieve therapeutic exposure (concentration-at-steady-state, Css) and implement a simple, model-based tool for the initial dosing of busulfan in children undergoing HCT. Patients and Methods Model development was conducted using retrospective data available in 90 pediatric and young adult patients who had undergone HCT with busulfan conditioning. Busulfan drug levels and potential covariates influencing drug exposure were analyzed using the non-linear mixed effects modeling software, NONMEM. The final population PK model was implemented into a clinician-friendly, Microsoft Excel-based tool and used to recommend initial doses of busulfan in a group of 21 pediatric patients prospectively dosed based on the population PK model. Results Modeling of busulfan time-concentration data indicates busulfan CL displays non-linearity in children, decreasing up to approximately 20% between the concentrations of 250–2000 ng/mL. Important patient-specific covariates found to significantly impact busulfan CL were actual body weight and age. The percentage of individuals achieving a therapeutic Css was significantly higher in subjects receiving initial doses based on the population PK model (81%) versus historical controls dosed on conventional guidelines (52%) (p = 0.02). Conclusion When compared to the conventional dosing guidelines, the model-based algorithm demonstrates significant improvement for providing targeted busulfan therapy in children and young adults. PMID:25162216

The Use of Genetics for the Management of a Recovering Population: Temporal Assessment of Migratory Peregrine Falcons in North America

PubMed Central

Johnson, Jeff A.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Sage, George K.; Burnham, Kurt K.; Brown, Joseph W.; Maechtle, Tom L.; Seegar, William S.; Yates, Michael A.; Anderson, Bud; Mindell, David P.

2010-01-01

Background Our ability to monitor populations or species that were once threatened or endangered and in the process of recovery is enhanced by using genetic methods to assess overall population stability and size over time. This can be accomplished most directly by obtaining genetic measures from temporally-spaced samples that reflect the overall stability of the population as given by changes in genetic diversity levels (allelic richness and heterozygosity), degree of population differentiation (F ST and D EST), and effective population size (N e). The primary goal of any recovery effort is to produce a long-term self-sustaining population, and these genetic measures provide a metric by which we can gauge our progress and help make important management decisions. Methodology/Principal Findings The peregrine falcon in North America (Falco peregrinus tundrius and anatum) was delisted in 1994 and 1999, respectively, and its abundance will be monitored by the species Recovery Team every three years until 2015. Although the United States Fish and Wildlife Service makes a distinction between tundrius and anatum subspecies, our genetic results based on eleven microsatellite loci suggest limited differentiation that can be attributed to an isolation by distance relationship and warrant no delineation of these two subspecies in its northern latitudinal distribution from Alaska through Canada into Greenland. Using temporal samples collected at Padre Island, Texas during migration (seven temporal time periods between 1985–2007), no significant differences in genetic diversity or significant population differentiation in allele frequencies between time periods were observed and were indistinguishable from those obtained from tundrius/anatum breeding locations throughout their northern distribution. Estimates of harmonic mean N e were variable and imprecise, but always greater than 500 when employing multiple temporal genetic methods. Conclusions/Significance These results, including those from simulations to assess the power of each method to estimate N e, suggest a stable or growing population, which is consistent with ongoing field-based monitoring surveys. Therefore, historic and continuing efforts to prevent the extinction of the peregrine falcon in North America appear successful with no indication of recent decline, at least from the northern latitude range-wide perspective. The results also further highlight the importance of archiving samples and their use for continual assessment of population recovery and long-term viability. PMID:21124969

Economic Impact of Dyspepsia in Rural and Urban Malaysia: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Yadav, Hematram; Everett, Simon M; Goh, Khean-Lee

2012-01-01

Background/Aims The economic impact of dyspepsia in regions with a diverse healthcare system remains uncertain. This study aimed to estimate the costs of dyspepsia in a rural and urban population in Malaysia. Methods Economic evaluation was performed based on the cost-of-illness method. Resource utilization and quality of life data over a specific time frame, were collected to determine direct, indirect and intangible costs related to dyspepsia. Results The prevalences of dyspepsia in the rural (n = 2,000) and urban (n = 2,039) populations were 14.6% and 24.3% respectively. Differences in socioeconomic status and healthcare utilisation between both populations were considerable. The cost of dyspepsia per 1,000 population per year was estimated at USD14,816.10 and USD59,282.20 in the rural and urban populations respectively. The cost per quality adjusted life year for dyspepsia in rural and urban adults was USD16.30 and USD69.75, respectively. Conclusions The economic impact of dyspepsia is greater in an urban compared to a rural setting. Differences in socioeconomic status and healthcare utilisation between populations are thought to contribute to this difference. PMID:22323987

A network-based approach for resistance transmission in bacterial populations.

PubMed

Gehring, Ronette; Schumm, Phillip; Youssef, Mina; Scoglio, Caterina

2010-01-07

Horizontal transfer of mobile genetic elements (conjugation) is an important mechanism whereby resistance is spread through bacterial populations. The aim of our work is to develop a mathematical model that quantitatively describes this process, and to use this model to optimize antimicrobial dosage regimens to minimize resistance development. The bacterial population is conceptualized as a compartmental mathematical model to describe changes in susceptible, resistant, and transconjugant bacteria over time. This model is combined with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model to explore the effect of different plasma drug concentration profiles. An agent-based simulation tool is used to account for resistance transfer occurring when two bacteria are adjacent or in close proximity. In addition, a non-linear programming optimal control problem is introduced to minimize bacterial populations as well as the drug dose. Simulation and optimization results suggest that the rapid death of susceptible individuals in the population is pivotal in minimizing the number of transconjugants in a population. This supports the use of potent antimicrobials that rapidly kill susceptible individuals and development of dosage regimens that maintain effective antimicrobial drug concentrations for as long as needed to kill off the susceptible population. Suggestions are made for experiments to test the hypotheses generated by these simulations.

Developing theoretically based and culturally appropriate interventions to promote hepatitis B testing in 4 Asian American populations, 2006-2011.

PubMed

Maxwell, Annette E; Bastani, Roshan; Glenn, Beth A; Taylor, Victoria M; Nguyen, Tung T; Stewart, Susan L; Burke, Nancy J; Chen, Moon S

2014-05-01

Hepatitis B infection is 5 to 12 times more common among Asian Americans than in the general US population and is the leading cause of liver disease and liver cancer among Asians. The purpose of this article is to describe the step-by-step approach that we followed in community-based participatory research projects in 4 Asian American groups, conducted from 2006 through 2011 in California and Washington state to develop theoretically based and culturally appropriate interventions to promote hepatitis B testing. We provide examples to illustrate how intervention messages addressing identical theoretical constructs of the Health Behavior Framework were modified to be culturally appropriate for each community. Intervention approaches included mass media in the Vietnamese community, small-group educational sessions at churches in the Korean community, and home visits by lay health workers in the Hmong and Cambodian communities. Use of the Health Behavior Framework allowed a systematic approach to intervention development across populations, resulting in 4 different culturally appropriate interventions that addressed the same set of theoretical constructs. The development of theory-based health promotion interventions for different populations will advance our understanding of which constructs are critical to modify specific health behaviors.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data.

PubMed

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-07-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data

PubMed Central

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-01-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems. PMID:23919169

Leveraging public health's participation in a Health Information Exchange to improve communicable disease reporting.

PubMed

Painter, Ian; Revere, Debra; Gibson, P Joseph; Baseman, Janet

2017-01-01

Infectious diseases can appear and spread rapidly. Timely information about disease patterns and trends allows public health agencies to quickly investigate and efficiently contain those diseases. But disease case reporting to public health has traditionally been paper-based, resulting in somewhat slow, burdensome processes. Fortunately, the expanding use of electronic health records and health information exchanges has created opportunities for more rapid, complete, and easily managed case reporting and investigation. To assess how this new service might impact the efficiency and quality of a public health agency's case investigations, we compared the timeliness of usual case investigation to that of case investigations based on case report forms that were partially pre-populated with electronic data. Between September 2013-March 2014, chlamydia disease report forms for certain clinics in Indianapolis were electronically pre-populated with clinical, lab and patient data available through the Indiana Health Information Exchange, then provided to the patient’s doctor. Doctors could then sign the form and deliver it to public health for investigation and population-level disease tracking. Methods: We utilized a novel matched case analysis of timeliness changes in receipt and processing of communicable disease report forms. Each Chlamydia cases reported with the pre-populated form were matched to cases reported in usual ways. We assessed the time from receipt of the case at the public health agency: 1) inclusion of the case into the public health surveillance system and 2) to close to case. A hierarchical random effects model was used to compare mean difference in each outcome between the target cases and the matched cases, with random intercepts for case. Twenty-one Chlamydia cases were reported to the public health agency using the pre-populated form. Sixteen of these pre-populated form cases were matched to at least one other case, with a mean of 23 matches per case. The mean Reporting Lag for the pre-populated form cases was 2.5 days, which was 2.7 days shorter than the mean Reporting Lag for the matched controls (p = <0.001). The mean time to close a pre-populated form case was 4.7 days, which was 0.2 days shorter than time to close for the matched controls (p = 0.792). Use of pre-populated forms significantly decreased the time it took for the local public health agency to begin documenting and closing chlamydia case investigations. Thoughtful use of electronic health data for case reporting may decrease the per-case workload of public health agencies, and improve the timeliness of information about the pattern and spread of disease.

Inferring individual-level processes from population-level patterns in cultural evolution.

PubMed

Kandler, Anne; Wilder, Bryan; Fortunato, Laura

2017-09-01

Our species is characterized by a great degree of cultural variation, both within and between populations. Understanding how group-level patterns of culture emerge from individual-level behaviour is a long-standing question in the biological and social sciences. We develop a simulation model capturing demographic and cultural dynamics relevant to human cultural evolution, focusing on the interface between population-level patterns and individual-level processes. The model tracks the distribution of variants of cultural traits across individuals in a population over time, conditioned on different pathways for the transmission of information between individuals. From these data, we obtain theoretical expectations for a range of statistics commonly used to capture population-level characteristics (e.g. the degree of cultural diversity). Consistent with previous theoretical work, our results show that the patterns observed at the level of groups are rooted in the interplay between the transmission pathways and the age structure of the population. We also explore whether, and under what conditions, the different pathways can be distinguished based on their group-level signatures, in an effort to establish theoretical limits to inference. Our results show that the temporal dynamic of cultural change over time retains a stronger signature than the cultural composition of the population at a specific point in time. Overall, the results suggest a shift in focus from identifying the one individual-level process that likely produced the observed data to excluding those that likely did not. We conclude by discussing the implications for empirical studies of human cultural evolution.

Fitness variation in response to artificial selection for reduced cell area, cell number and wing area in natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Trotta, Vincenzo; Calboli, Federico C F; Ziosi, Marcello; Cavicchi, Sandro

2007-08-16

Genetically based body size differences are naturally occurring in populations of Drosophila melanogaster, with bigger flies in the cold. Despite the cosmopolitan nature of body size clines in more than one Drosophila species, the actual selective mechanisms controlling the genetic basis of body size variation are not fully understood. In particular, it is not clear what the selective value of cell size and cell area variation exactly is. In the present work we determined variation in viability, developmental time and larval competitive ability in response to crowding at two temperatures after artificial selection for reduced cell area, cell number and wing area in four different natural populations of D. melanogaster. No correlated effect of selection on viability or developmental time was observed among all selected populations. An increase in competitive ability in one thermal environment (18 degrees C) under high larval crowding was observed as a correlated response to artificial selection for cell size. Viability and developmental time are not affected by selection for the cellular component of body size, suggesting that these traits only depend on the contingent genetic makeup of a population. The higher larval competitive ability shown by populations selected for reduced cell area seems to confirm the hypothesis that cell area mediated changes have a relationship with fitness, and might be the preferential way to change body size under specific circumstances.

Socioeconomic Status and Physical Activity in Chinese Adults: A Report from a Community-Based Survey in Jiaxing, China.

PubMed

Chen, Mingling; Wu, Yikang; Narimatsu, Hiroto; Li, Xueqing; Wang, Chunmei; Luo, Jianyong; Zhao, Genming; Chen, Zhongwen; Xu, Wanghong

2015-01-01

This study examines the associations of socioeconomic status (SES) with intensity of different types of physical activity (PA) in Chinese adults, aimed at outlining and projecting socioeconomic disparities in PA among the population undergoing a rapid nutrition transition. A community-based survey was conducted among 3,567 residents aged 30-65 years old in Jiaxing, China, in 2010. SES and PA were assessed by a structured questionnaire. SES was assessed as socioeconomic index (SEI) score based on self-reported educational attainment, household income and occupation. Metabolic equivalents (METs) were calculated for each subject to quantify the total amount of PA from occupation, exercise, transportation and housework. Intensity of overall PA in this population was 165 MET-hours/week, in which energy expenditure in occupational PA accounted for 82%. Both types and intensity of PA were significantly different by SES: middle SES groups had higher intensity of occupational activities; lower SES subjects engaged in more household work; whereas higher SES subjects were more likely to exercise, more active during commuting and had longer sedentary time. All the three components of SES, education attainment, income and occupation, contributed to socioeconomic disparities in PA in this population. Our results suggest an overall insufficiency and socioeconomic inequalities in PA among Chinese adults in Jiaxing, a typical city experiencing a rapid urbanization in China. There is an urgent need to promote leisure-time activities in this population.

Inexpensive and Highly Reproducible Cloud-Based Variant Calling of 2,535 Human Genomes

PubMed Central

Shringarpure, Suyash S.; Carroll, Andrew; De La Vega, Francisco M.; Bustamante, Carlos D.

2015-01-01

Population scale sequencing of whole human genomes is becoming economically feasible; however, data management and analysis remains a formidable challenge for many research groups. Large sequencing studies, like the 1000 Genomes Project, have improved our understanding of human demography and the effect of rare genetic variation in disease. Variant calling on datasets of hundreds or thousands of genomes is time-consuming, expensive, and not easily reproducible given the myriad components of a variant calling pipeline. Here, we describe a cloud-based pipeline for joint variant calling in large samples using the Real Time Genomics population caller. We deployed the population caller on the Amazon cloud with the DNAnexus platform in order to achieve low-cost variant calling. Using our pipeline, we were able to identify 68.3 million variants in 2,535 samples from Phase 3 of the 1000 Genomes Project. By performing the variant calling in a parallel manner, the data was processed within 5 days at a compute cost of $7.33 per sample (a total cost of $18,590 for completed jobs and $21,805 for all jobs). Analysis of cost dependence and running time on the data size suggests that, given near linear scalability, cloud computing can be a cheap and efficient platform for analyzing even larger sequencing studies in the future. PMID:26110529

Increasing accuracy of dispersal kernels in grid-based population models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slone, D.H.

2011-01-01

Dispersal kernels in grid-based population models specify the proportion, distance and direction of movements within the model landscape. Spatial errors in dispersal kernels can have large compounding effects on model accuracy. Circular Gaussian and Laplacian dispersal kernels at a range of spatial resolutions were investigated, and methods for minimizing errors caused by the discretizing process were explored. Kernels of progressively smaller sizes relative to the landscape grid size were calculated using cell-integration and cell-center methods. These kernels were convolved repeatedly, and the final distribution was compared with a reference analytical solution. For large Gaussian kernels (σ > 10 cells), the total kernel error was <10 &sup-11; compared to analytical results. Using an invasion model that tracked the time a population took to reach a defined goal, the discrete model results were comparable to the analytical reference. With Gaussian kernels that had σ ≤ 0.12 using the cell integration method, or σ ≤ 0.22 using the cell center method, the kernel error was greater than 10%, which resulted in invasion times that were orders of magnitude different than theoretical results. A goal-seeking routine was developed to adjust the kernels to minimize overall error. With this, corrections for small kernels were found that decreased overall kernel error to <10-11 and invasion time error to <5%.

Resilience of aging populations after devastating earthquake event and its determinants - A case study of the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Chih-Hsuan; Hung, Hung-Chih

2016-04-01

1.Background Major portions of urban areas in Asia are highly exposed and vulnerable to devastating earthquakes. Many studies identify ways to reduce earthquake risk by concentrating more on building resilience for the particularly vulnerable populations. By 2020, as the United Nations' warning, many Asian countries would become 'super-aged societies', such as Taiwan. However, local authorities rarely use resilience approach to frame earthquake disaster risk management and land use strategies. The empirically-based research about the resilience of aging populations has also received relatively little attention. Thus, a challenge arisen for decision-makers is how to enhance resilience of aging populations within the context of risk reduction. This study aims to improve the understanding of the resilience of aging populations and its changes over time in the aftermath of a destructive earthquake at the local level. A novel methodology is proposed to assess the resilience of aging populations and to characterize their changes of spatial distribution patterns, as well as to examine their determinants. 2.Methods and data An indicator-based assessment framework is constructed with the goal of identifying composite indicators (including before, during and after a disaster) that could serve as proxies for attributes of the resilience of aging populations. Using the recovery process of the Chi-Chi earthquake struck central Taiwan in 1999 as a case study, we applied a method combined a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique and cluster analysis to test the extent of which the resilience of aging populations is spatially autocorrelated throughout the central Taiwan, and to explain why clustering of resilient areas occurs in specific locations. Furthermore, to scrutinize the affecting factors of resilience, we develop an aging population resilience model (APRM) based on existing resilience theory. Using the APRM, we applied a multivariate regression analysis to identify and examine how various factors connect to the resilience of aging populations. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the study collected data on the resilience attributes, the disaster impacts and damages due to the Chi-Chi earthquake. The data were offered by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, as well as collected from the National Land Use Investigation, official census statistics and questionnaire surveys. 3.Results Integrating cluster analysis with GIS-based spatial statistical analysis, the resilience of aging populations were divided into five clusters of distribution patterns over the 10 years after the Chi-Chi earthquake. It shows that both population and elderly distributions were highly heterogeneous and spatial correlated across the study areas. We also demonstrated the 'hot spots' areas of the highly concentrated aging population across central Taiwan. Results of regression analysis disclosed the major factors that caused low resilience and changes of aging population distributions over time. These factors included the levels of seismic damage, infrastructure investments, as well as the land-use and socioeconomic attributes associated with the disaster areas. Finally, our findings provide stakeholders and policy-makers with better adaptive options to design and synthesize appropriate patchworks of planning measures for different types of resilience areas to reduce earthquake disaster risk.

Linking Specialization and Seriousness in Criminal Careers

PubMed Central

MacDonald, John M.; Haviland, Amelia; Ramchand, Rajeev; Morral, Andrew R.; Piquero, Alex R.

2014-01-01

Some research suggests that recidivistic criminal offending patterns typically progress in a stepping-stone manner from less to more serious forms of offending from childhood to adolescence to adulthood. Whether the progression into more serious types of offending reflects patterns of crime specialization is a matter of debate. Using data from 449 adolescent offenders who were interviewed at six time points between adolescence and adulthood, we present a new method for measuring crime specialization and apply it to an assessment of the link between specialization and offense seriousness. We measure specialization by constructing an empirical measure of how similar crimes are from each other based on the rate at which crimes co-occur within individual crime pathways over a given offender population. We then use these empirically-based population-specific offense similarities to assign a specialization score to each subject at each time period based on the set of crimes they self-report at that time. Finally, we examine how changes over time in specialization, within individuals, is correlated with changes in the seriousness of the offenses they report committing. Results suggest that the progression of crime into increasingly serious forms of offending does not reflect a general pattern of offense specialization. Implications for life course research are noted. PMID:25422597

Accessibility and distribution of the Norwegian National Air Emergency Service: 1988-1998.

PubMed

Heggestad, Torhild; Børsheim, Knut Yngve

2002-01-01

To evaluate the accessibility and distribution of the Norwegian National Air Emergency Service in the 10-year period from 1988 to 1998. The primary material was annual standardized activity data that included all helicopter missions. A multivariate model of determinants for use of the helicopter service was computed by linear regression. Accessibility was measured as the percentage of the population reached in different flying times, and we evaluated the service using a simulation of alternative locations for the helicopter bases. The helicopter service (HEMS) has short access times, with a mean reaction time of 8 minutes and a mean response time of 26 minutes for acute missions. Nearly all patients (98%) are reached within 1 hour. A simulation that tested alternative locations of the helicopter bases compared with current locations showed no increase in accessibility. The use of the service shows large regional differences. Multivariate analyses showed that the distances of the patients from the nearest helicopter base and the nearest hospital are significant determinants for the use of HEMS. Establishment of a national service has given the Norwegian population better access to highly qualified prehospital emergency services. Furthermore, the HEMS has a compensating effect in adjusting for differences in traveling distances to a hospital. Safety, cost-containment, and gatekeeper functions remain challenges.

Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M

2010-04-01

Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This study illustrates that, for making reliable inferences about population consequences in species in which life history changes with age or stage, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on vital rates across the entire life cycle. Disturbingly, such data are unavailable for most species of conservation concern.

Mapping the Risk of Snakebite in Sri Lanka - A National Survey with Geospatial Analysis.

PubMed

Ediriweera, Dileepa Senajith; Kasturiratne, Anuradhani; Pathmeswaran, Arunasalam; Gunawardena, Nipul Kithsiri; Wijayawickrama, Buddhika Asiri; Jayamanne, Shaluka Francis; Isbister, Geoffrey Kennedy; Dawson, Andrew; Giorgi, Emanuele; Diggle, Peter John; Lalloo, David Griffith; de Silva, Hithanadura Janaka

2016-07-01

There is a paucity of robust epidemiological data on snakebite, and data available from hospitals and localized or time-limited surveys have major limitations. No study has investigated the incidence of snakebite across a whole country. We undertook a community-based national survey and model based geostatistics to determine incidence, envenoming, mortality and geographical pattern of snakebite in Sri Lanka. The survey was designed to sample a population distributed equally among the nine provinces of the country. The number of data collection clusters was divided among districts in proportion to their population. Within districts clusters were randomly selected. Population based incidence of snakebite and significant envenoming were estimated. Model-based geostatistics was used to develop snakebite risk maps for Sri Lanka. 1118 of the total of 14022 GN divisions with a population of 165665 (0.8%of the country's population) were surveyed. The crude overall community incidence of snakebite, envenoming and mortality were 398 (95% CI: 356-441), 151 (130-173) and 2.3 (0.2-4.4) per 100000 population, respectively. Risk maps showed wide variation in incidence within the country, and snakebite hotspots and cold spots were determined by considering the probability of exceeding the national incidence. This study provides community based incidence rates of snakebite and envenoming for Sri Lanka. The within-country spatial variation of bites can inform healthcare decision making and highlights the limitations associated with estimates of incidence from hospital data or localized surveys. Our methods are replicable, and these models can be adapted to other geographic regions after re-estimating spatial covariance parameters for the particular region.

Age and ethnic disparities in incidence of stroke over time: the South London Stroke Register.

PubMed

Wang, Yanzhong; Rudd, Anthony G; Wolfe, Charles D A

2013-12-01

Data on continuous monitoring of stroke risk among different age and ethnic groups are lacking. We aimed to investigate age and ethnic disparities in stroke incidence over time from an inner-city population-based stroke register. Trends in stroke incidence and before-stroke risk factors were investigated with the South London Stroke Register, a population-based register covering a multiethnic population of 357 308 inhabitants. Age-, ethnicity-, and sex-specific incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals were calculated, assuming a Poisson distribution and their trends over time tested by the Cochran-Armitage test. Four thousand two hundred forty-five patients with first-ever stroke were registered between 1995 and 2010. Total stroke incidence reduced by 39.5% during the 16-year period from 247 to 149.5 per 100 000 population (P<0.0001). Similar declines in stroke incidence were observed in men, women, white groups, and those aged>45 years, but not in those aged 15 to 44 years (12.6-10.1; P=0.2034) and black groups (310.1-267.5; P=0.3633). The mean age at stroke decreased significantly from 71.7 to 69.6 years (P=0.0001). The reduction in prevalence of before-stroke risk factors was mostly seen in white patients aged>55 years, whereas an increase in diabetes mellitus was observed in younger black patients aged 15 to 54 years. Total stroke incidence decreased during the 16-year time period. However, this was not seen in younger age groups and black groups. The advances in risk factor reduction observed in white groups aged>55 years failed to be transferred to younger age groups and black groups.

Sleep and sleepiness in environmental intolerances: a population-based study.

PubMed

Nordin, Maria; Nordin, Steven

2016-08-01

About one fourth of the general population report environmental intolerance (EI) to odorous/pungent chemicals, certain buildings, electromagnetic fields (EMFs), and/or sounds. EI sufferers show various clinical features, of which sleep disturbance is one. Sleep disturbance is common also in the general population, but it is not known whether the disturbance is more prominent in EI sufferers than in individuals who do not experience EI. Therefore, EI was compared on various sleep aspects with referents without EI. A population-based sample of 3406 individuals, aged 18-79 years, was recruited from Northern Sweden. Sleep quality, non-restorative sleep, daytime sleepiness, obstructive breathing, and nocturnal insomnia were assessed with the Karolinska Sleep Questionnaire. Single questions assessed time slept, amount of hours of needed sleep, and extent of enough time slept. All four EI groups, compared to the referents, reported significantly poorer sleep quality, more non-restorative sleep, more daytime sleepiness, more obstructive breathing and higher prevalence of nocturnal insomnia than the referents. Nocturnal insomnia was an important factor for EI groups attributing their most prevalent symptoms to chemicals and sounds, irrespective of distress and certain syndromes. None of the EI groups differed significantly from the referents on time slept, but reported needing more sleep time (the EMF-intolerance group showing only a tendency), and all four groups reported to perceive enough sleep to a significantly lesser extent. Sleep disturbance and daytime sleepiness are more common in individuals reporting EI compared to normal referents. Moreover, nocturnal insomnia is an important symptom in its own right in various types of EI. This evokes the question of whether or not sleep therapy may attenuate the severity of the EI. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Temporal Data Set Reduction Based on D-Optimality for Quantitative FLIM-FRET Imaging.

PubMed

Omer, Travis; Intes, Xavier; Hahn, Juergen

2015-01-01

Fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM) when paired with Förster resonance energy transfer (FLIM-FRET) enables the monitoring of nanoscale interactions in living biological samples. FLIM-FRET model-based estimation methods allow the quantitative retrieval of parameters such as the quenched (interacting) and unquenched (non-interacting) fractional populations of the donor fluorophore and/or the distance of the interactions. The quantitative accuracy of such model-based approaches is dependent on multiple factors such as signal-to-noise ratio and number of temporal points acquired when sampling the fluorescence decays. For high-throughput or in vivo applications of FLIM-FRET, it is desirable to acquire a limited number of temporal points for fast acquisition times. Yet, it is critical to acquire temporal data sets with sufficient information content to allow for accurate FLIM-FRET parameter estimation. Herein, an optimal experimental design approach based upon sensitivity analysis is presented in order to identify the time points that provide the best quantitative estimates of the parameters for a determined number of temporal sampling points. More specifically, the D-optimality criterion is employed to identify, within a sparse temporal data set, the set of time points leading to optimal estimations of the quenched fractional population of the donor fluorophore. Overall, a reduced set of 10 time points (compared to a typical complete set of 90 time points) was identified to have minimal impact on parameter estimation accuracy (≈5%), with in silico and in vivo experiment validations. This reduction of the number of needed time points by almost an order of magnitude allows the use of FLIM-FRET for certain high-throughput applications which would be infeasible if the entire number of time sampling points were used.

Social-ecological interactions, management panaceas, and the future of wild fish populations

PubMed Central

van Poorten, Brett T.; Arlinghaus, Robert; Daedlow, Katrin; Haertel-Borer, Susanne S.

2011-01-01

We explored the social and ecological outcomes associated with emergence of a management panacea designed to govern a stochastic renewable natural resource. To that end, we constructed a model of a coupled social-ecological system of recreational fisheries in which a manager supports naturally fluctuating stocks by stocking fish in response to harvest-driven satisfaction of resource users. The realistic assumption of users remembering past harvest experiences when exploiting a stochastically fluctuating fish population facilitates the emergence of a stocking-based management panacea over time. The social benefits of panacea formation involve dampening natural population fluctuations and generating stability of user satisfaction. It also maintains the resource but promotes the eventual replacement of wild fish by hatchery-descended fish. Our analyses show this outcome is particularly likely when hatchery-descended fish are reasonably fit (e.g., characterized by similar survival relative to wild fish) and/or when natural recruitment of the wild population is low (e.g., attributable to habitat deterioration), which leaves the wild population with little buffer against competition by stocked fish. The potential for release-based panacea formation is particularly likely under user-based management regimes and should be common in a range of social-ecological systems (e.g., fisheries, forestry), whenever user groups are entitled to engage in release or replanting strategies. The net result will be the preservation of a renewable resource through user-based incentives, but the once natural populations are likely to be altered and to host nonnative genotypes. This risks other ecosystem services and the future of wild populations. PMID:21742983

Sequential sampling of ribes populations in the control of white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola Fischer) in California

Treesearch

Harold R. Offord

1966-01-01

Sequential sampling based on a negative binomial distribution of ribes populations required less than half the time taken by regular systematic line transect sampling in a comparison test. It gave the same control decision as the regular method in 9 of 13 field trials. A computer program that permits sequential plans to be built readily for other white pine regions is...

Indigenous Mexican Culture, Identity and Academic Aspirations: Results from a Community-Based Curriculum Project for Latina/Latino Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luna, Nora; Evans, William P.; Davis, Bret

2015-01-01

The Latina/Latino population is the largest minority group in the United States and has the highest high school dropout rate of any ethnic group. Nationally, just over one-half of Latina/Latino students graduate on time with a regular diploma, compared to nearly 80% of Whites. Because of the growing population and the wide achievement gap, there…

Biogeography-based particle swarm optimization with fuzzy elitism and its applications to constrained engineering problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Weian; Li, Wuzhao; Zhang, Qun; Wang, Lei; Wu, Qidi; Ren, Hongliang

2014-11-01

In evolutionary algorithms, elites are crucial to maintain good features in solutions. However, too many elites can make the evolutionary process stagnate and cannot enhance the performance. This article employs particle swarm optimization (PSO) and biogeography-based optimization (BBO) to propose a hybrid algorithm termed biogeography-based particle swarm optimization (BPSO) which could make a large number of elites effective in searching optima. In this algorithm, the whole population is split into several subgroups; BBO is employed to search within each subgroup and PSO for the global search. Since not all the population is used in PSO, this structure overcomes the premature convergence in the original PSO. Time complexity analysis shows that the novel algorithm does not increase the time consumption. Fourteen numerical benchmarks and four engineering problems with constraints are used to test the BPSO. To better deal with constraints, a fuzzy strategy for the number of elites is investigated. The simulation results validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Partnerships between the faith-based and medical sectors: Implications for preventive medicine and public health.

PubMed

Levin, Jeff

2016-12-01

Interconnections between the faith-based and medical sectors are multifaceted and have existed for centuries, including partnerships that have evolved over the past several decades in the U.S. This paper outlines ten points of intersection that have engaged medical and healthcare professionals and institutions across specialties, focusing especially on primary care, global health, and community-based outreach to underserved populations. In a time of healthcare resource scarcity, such partnerships-involving religious congregations, denominations, and communal and philanthropic agencies-are useful complements to the work of private-sector medical care providers and of federal, state, and local public health institutions in their efforts to protect and maintain the health of the population. At the same time, challenges and obstacles remain, mostly related to negotiating the complex and contentious relations between these two sectors. This paper identifies pressing legal/constitutional, political/policy, professional/jurisdictional, ethical, and research and evaluation issues that need to be better addressed before this work can realize its full potential.

A simple real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assay for authentication of the Chinese Panax ginseng cultivar Damaya from a local ginseng population.

PubMed

Wang, H; Wang, J; Li, G

2016-06-27

Panax ginseng is one of the most important medicinal plants in the Orient. Owing to its increasing demand in the world market, cultivated ginseng has become the main source of medicinal material. Among the Chinese ginseng cultivars, Damaya commands higher prices and is grown in significant proportions among the local ginseng population. Due to the lack of rapid and accurate authentication methods, Damaya is distributed among different cultivars in the local ginseng population in China. Here, we identified a unique, Damaya-specific single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) site present in the second intron of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 2 (cox2). Based on this SNP, a Damaya cultivar-specific primer was designed and an allele-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was optimized for the effective molecular authentication of Damaya. We designed a method by combining a simple DNA isolation method with real-time allele-specific PCR using SYBR Green I fluorescent dye, and proved its efficacy in clearly discriminated Damaya cultivar from other Chinese ginseng cultivars according to the allelic discrimination analysis. Hence, this study provides a simple and rapid assay for the differentiation and conservation of Damaya from the local Chinese ginseng population.

Which population groups are most unaware of CVD risks associated with sitting time?

PubMed

Duncan, Mitch J; Gilson, Nicholas; Vandelanotte, Corneel

2014-08-01

Prolonged sitting is an emerging risk factor for poor health yet few studies have examined awareness of the risks associated with sitting behaviours. This study identifies the population subgroups with the highest levels of unawareness regarding the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks associated with sitting behaviours. Adults (n=1256) living in Queensland, Australia completed a telephone-based survey in 2011, analysis conducted in 2013. The survey assessed participant's socio-demographic characteristics, physical activity, sitting behaviours and awareness of CVD risks associated with three sitting behaviours: 1) sitting for prolonged periods, 2), sitting for prolonged periods whilst also engaging in regular physical activity, and 3) breaking up periods of prolonged sitting with short activity breaks. Population sub-groups with the highest levels of unawareness were identified based on socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics using signal detection analysis. Unawareness ranged from 23.3% to 67.0%. Age was the most important variable in differentiating awareness levels; younger adults had higher levels of unawareness. Body mass index, physical activity, TV viewing, employment status and time spent at work also identified population sub-groups. Unawareness of CVD risk for prolonged sitting was moderately high overall. Younger adults had high levels of unawareness on all of the outcomes examined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Smartphone Camera-Based Indoor Positioning Algorithm of Crowded Scenarios with the Assistance of Deep CNN.

PubMed

Jiao, Jichao; Li, Fei; Deng, Zhongliang; Ma, Wenjing

2017-03-28

Considering the installation cost and coverage, the received signal strength indicator (RSSI)-based indoor positioning system is widely used across the world. However, the indoor positioning performance, due to the interference of wireless signals that are caused by the complex indoor environment that includes a crowded population, cannot achieve the demands of indoor location-based services. In this paper, we focus on increasing the signal strength estimation accuracy considering the population density, which is different to the other RSSI-based indoor positioning methods. Therefore, we propose a new wireless signal compensation model considering the population density, distance, and frequency. First of all, the number of individuals in an indoor crowded scenario can be calculated by our convolutional neural network (CNN)-based human detection approach. Then, the relationship between the population density and the signal attenuation is described in our model. Finally, we use the trilateral positioning principle to realize the pedestrian location. According to the simulation and tests in the crowded scenarios, the proposed model increases the accuracy of the signal strength estimation by 1.53 times compared to that without considering the human body. Therefore, the localization accuracy is less than 1.37 m, which indicates that our algorithm can improve the indoor positioning performance and is superior to other RSSI models.

Critical short-time dynamics in a system with interacting static and diffusive populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argolo, C.; Quintino, Yan; Gleria, Iram; Lyra, M. L.

2012-01-01

We study the critical short-time dynamical behavior of a one-dimensional model where diffusive individuals can infect a static population upon contact. The model presents an absorbing phase transition from an active to an inactive state. Previous calculations of the critical exponents based on quasistationary quantities have indicated an unusual crossover from the directed percolation to the diffusive contact process universality classes. Here we show that the critical exponents governing the slow short-time dynamic evolution of several relevant quantities, including the order parameter, its relative fluctuations, and correlation function, reinforce the lack of universality in this model. Accurate estimates show that the critical exponents are distinct in the regimes of low and high recovery rates.

School-Based Pediatric Asthma Surveillance in Massachusetts from 2005 to 2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Medaglia, Frances; Knorr, Robert S.; Condon, Suzanne K.; Charleston, Alicia C.

2013-01-01

Background: Asthma is the most common chronic disease among children today, yet surveillance is limited to national and state estimates which can vary over time, by location and by population types. This article describes a comprehensive statewide school-based asthma surveillance program and examines 5?years of surveillance data. Methods: After…

Prospective Relationship between Social Cognitive Variables and Leisure Time Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hortz, Brian; Winters, Eric; Grim, Melissa L.; Petosa, R. Lingyak

2017-01-01

Background: Evidence suggests that health promotion interventions that are based on behavioral theories are more effective than those lacking a theoretical base. Recent studies have begun to look at the relationship between social cognitive variables and physical activity in varied populations. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine…

Changes in Social Support over Time in a Faith-Based Physical Activity Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Story, Chandra R.; Knutson, Douglas; Brown, Jameisha B.; Spears-Laniox, Erica; Harvey, Idethia Shevon; Gizlice, Ziya; Whitt-Glover, Melicia C.

2017-01-01

African-American women report higher levels of chronic conditions and church attendance relative to the overall US population. Therefore, efforts have increased over the past decade to design church-based health promotion programs. The present study compared changes in religiosity, religious social support and general social support across time…

Predicting the response of populations to environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ives, A.R.

1995-04-01

When subject to long-term directional environmental perturbations, changes in population densities depend on the positive and negative feedbacks operating through interactions within and among species in a community. This paper develops techniques to predict the long-term responses of population densities to environmental changes using data on short-term population fluctuations driven by short-term environmental variability. In addition to giving quantitative predictions, the techniques also reveal how different qualitative patterns of species interactions either buffer or accentuate population responses to environmental trends. All of the predictions are based on regression coefficients extracted from time series data, and they can therefore be appliedmore » with a minimum of mathematical and statistical gymnastics. 48 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Expansion of a globally pervasive grass occurs without substantial trait differences between home and away populations.

PubMed

Leifso, A; MacDougall, A S; Husband, B; Hierro, J L; Köchy, M; Pärtel, M; Peltzer, D A

2012-12-01

The global expansion of species beyond their ancestral ranges can derive from mechanisms that are trait-based (e.g., post-establishment evolved differences compared to home populations) or circumstantial (e.g., propagule pressure, with no trait-based differences). These mechanisms can be difficult to distinguish following establishment, but each makes unique predictions regarding trait similarity between ancestral ('home') and introduced ('away') populations. Here, we tested for trait-based population differences across four continents for the globally distributed grass Dactylis glomerata, to assess the possible role of trait evolution in its worldwide expansion. We used a common-environment glasshouse experiment to quantify trait differences among home and away populations, and the potential relevance of these differences for competitive interactions. Few significant trait differences were found among continents, suggesting minimal change during global expansion. All populations were polyploids, with similar foliar carbon:nitrogen ratios (a proxy for defense), chlorophyll content, and biomass. Emergence time and growth rate favored home populations, resulting in their competitive superiority over away populations. Small but significant trait differences among away populations suggest different introductory histories or local adaptive responses following establishment. In summary, the worldwide distribution of this species appears to have arisen from its pre-adapted traits promoting growth, and its repeated introduction with cultivation and intense propagule pressure. Global expansion can thus occur without substantial shifts in growth, reproduction, or defense. Rather than focusing strictly on the invader, invasion success may also derive from the traits found (or lacking) in the recipient community and from environmental context including human disturbance.

Cancer incidence surrounding the former Apollo nuclear facility 1990-2010.

PubMed

Kelly-Reif, Kaitlin; Richardson, David B; Wing, Steve

2018-04-05

Environmental radiation releases from a nuclear fuel fabrication facility in Apollo, Pennsylvania may have exposed the surrounding population to ionizing radiation. This study characterizes cancer incidence in the population living near the nuclear facility between 1990 and 2010. Cancer incidence in the minor civil divisions surrounding the Apollo facility was compared to a standard population of the state of Pennsylvania adjusted for calendar year, age, sex, and race. Bias due to residential misclassification was considered by adjustment of case count. We also evaluated whether birth cohort effects or changes in population distribution over time affected the standardized incidence rate ratio (SIR). From 1990 to 2010, the observed rate of cancer incidence among males in the Apollo area was 1.56 (95% CI 1.47-1.66) times the expected cancer rate, and among females was 1.38 (95% CI 1.30-1.47) times the expected cancer rate. Accounting for residential misclassification, the SIR for males and females combined was 1.16 (95% CI 1.10-1.21). Residents who were members of earlier birth cohorts had similar SIRs to those born later. This research suggests that cancer incidence among the population surrounding the former Apollo nuclear facility is greater than expected based on statewide rates.

Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Limited Sampling Strategies Based on Healthy Volunteers for Monitoring of Ertapenem in Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis.

PubMed

van Rijn, S P; Zuur, M A; van Altena, R; Akkerman, O W; Proost, J H; de Lange, W C M; Kerstjens, H A M; Touw, D J; van der Werf, T S; Kosterink, J G W; Alffenaar, J W C

2017-04-01

Ertapenem is a broad-spectrum carbapenem antibiotic whose activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis is being explored. Carbapenems have antibacterial activity when the plasma concentration exceeds the MIC at least 40% of the time (40% T MIC ). To assess the 40% T MIC in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients, a limited sampling strategy was developed using a population pharmacokinetic model based on data for healthy volunteers. A two-compartment population pharmacokinetic model was developed with data for 42 healthy volunteers using an iterative two-stage Bayesian method. External validation was performed by Bayesian fitting of the model developed with data for volunteers to the data for individual MDR-TB patients (in which the fitted values of the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h [AUC 0-24, fit values] were used) using the population model developed for volunteers as a prior. A Monte Carlo simulation ( n = 1,000) was used to evaluate limited sampling strategies. Additionally, the 40% T MIC with the free fraction ( f 40% T MIC ) of ertapenem in MDR-TB patients was estimated with the population pharmacokinetic model. The population pharmacokinetic model that was developed was shown to overestimate the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC 0-24 ) in MDR-TB patients by 6.8% (range, -17.2 to 30.7%). The best-performing limited sampling strategy, which had a time restriction of 0 to 6 h, was found to be sampling at 1 and 5 h ( r 2 = 0.78, mean prediction error = -0.33%, root mean square error = 5.5%). Drug exposure was overestimated by a mean percentage of 4.2% (range, -15.2 to 23.6%). When a free fraction of 5% was considered and the MIC was set at 0.5 mg/liter, the minimum f 40% T MIC would have been exceeded in 9 out of 12 patients. A population pharmacokinetic model and limited sampling strategy, developed using data from healthy volunteers, were shown to be adequate to predict ertapenem exposure in MDR-TB patients. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Limited Sampling Strategies Based on Healthy Volunteers for Monitoring of Ertapenem in Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

van Rijn, S. P.; Zuur, M. A.; van Altena, R.; Akkerman, O. W.; Proost, J. H.; de Lange, W. C. M.; Kerstjens, H. A. M.; Touw, D. J.; van der Werf, T. S.; Kosterink, J. G. W.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Ertapenem is a broad-spectrum carbapenem antibiotic whose activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis is being explored. Carbapenems have antibacterial activity when the plasma concentration exceeds the MIC at least 40% of the time (40% TMIC). To assess the 40% TMIC in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients, a limited sampling strategy was developed using a population pharmacokinetic model based on data for healthy volunteers. A two-compartment population pharmacokinetic model was developed with data for 42 healthy volunteers using an iterative two-stage Bayesian method. External validation was performed by Bayesian fitting of the model developed with data for volunteers to the data for individual MDR-TB patients (in which the fitted values of the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h [AUC0–24, fit values] were used) using the population model developed for volunteers as a prior. A Monte Carlo simulation (n = 1,000) was used to evaluate limited sampling strategies. Additionally, the 40% TMIC with the free fraction (f 40% TMIC) of ertapenem in MDR-TB patients was estimated with the population pharmacokinetic model. The population pharmacokinetic model that was developed was shown to overestimate the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC0–24) in MDR-TB patients by 6.8% (range, −17.2 to 30.7%). The best-performing limited sampling strategy, which had a time restriction of 0 to 6 h, was found to be sampling at 1 and 5 h (r2 = 0.78, mean prediction error = −0.33%, root mean square error = 5.5%). Drug exposure was overestimated by a mean percentage of 4.2% (range, −15.2 to 23.6%). When a free fraction of 5% was considered and the MIC was set at 0.5 mg/liter, the minimum f 40% TMIC would have been exceeded in 9 out of 12 patients. A population pharmacokinetic model and limited sampling strategy, developed using data from healthy volunteers, were shown to be adequate to predict ertapenem exposure in MDR-TB patients. PMID:28137814

Use of fluroquinolone and risk of Achilles tendon rupture: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Sode, Jacob; Obel, Niels; Hallas, Jesper; Lassen, Annmarie

2007-05-01

Several case-control studies have reported that the use of fluoroquinolone increases the risk of rupture of the Achilles tendon. Our aim was to estimate this risk by means of a population-based cohort approach. Data on Achilles tendon ruptures and fluoroquinolone use were retrieved from three population-based databases that include information on residents of Funen County (population: 470,000) in primary and secondary care during the period 1991-1999. A study cohort of all 28,262 first-time users of fluoroquinolone and all incident cases of Achilles tendon ruptures were identified. The incidence rate of Achilles tendon ruptures among users and non-users of fluoroquinolones and the standardised incidence rate ratio associating fluoroquinolon use with Achilles tendon rupture were the main outcome measures. Between 1991 and 2002 the incidence of Achilles tendon rupture increased from 22.1 to 32.6/100,000 person-years. Between 1991 and 1999 the incidence of fluoroquinolone users was 722/100,000 person-years, with no apparent trend over time. Within 90 days of their first use of fluoroquinolone, five individuals had a rupture of the Achilles tendon; the expected number was 1.6, yielding an age- and sex-standardised incidence ratio of 3.1 [(95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.0-7.3). The 90-day cumulative incidence of Achilles tendon ruptures among fluoroquinolone users was 17.7/100,000 (95%CI: 5.7-41.3), which is an increase of 12.0/100,000 (95%CI: 0.0-35.6) compared to the background population. Fluoroquinolone use triples the risk of Achilles tendon rupture, but the incidence among users is low.

Population Accessibility to Radiotherapy Services in New South Wales Region of Australia: a methodological contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Nagesh; Wickramasuriya, Rohan; Miller, Andrew; Perez, Pascal

2015-05-01

This paper proposes an integrated modelling process to assess the population accessibility to radiotherapy treatment services in future based on future cancer incidence and road network-based accessibility. Previous research efforts assessed travel distance/time barriers affecting access to cancer treatment services, as well as epidemiological studies that showed that cancer incidence rates vary with population demography. It is established that travel distances to treatment centres and demographic profiles of the accessible regions greatly influence the demand for cancer radiotherapy (RT) services. However, an integrated service planning approach that combines spatially-explicit cancer incidence projections, and the RT services accessibility based on patient road network have never been attempted. This research work presents this novel methodology for the accessibility assessment of RT services and demonstrates its viability by modelling New South Wales (NSW) cancer incidence rates for different age-sex groups based on observed cancer incidence trends; estimating the road network-based access to current NSW treatment centres; and, projecting the demand for RT services in New South Wales, Australia from year 2011 to 2026.

The undiagnosed chronically-infected HCV population in France. Implications for expanded testing recommendations in 2014.

PubMed

Brouard, Cécile; Le Strat, Yann; Larsen, Christine; Jauffret-Roustide, Marie; Lot, Florence; Pillonel, Josiane

2015-01-01

Recent HCV therapeutic advances make effective screening crucial for potential HCV eradication. To identify the target population for a possible population-based screening strategy to complement current risk-based testing in France, we aimed to estimate the number of adults with undiagnosed chronic HCV infection and age and gender distribution at two time points: 2004 and 2014. A model taking into account mortality, HCV incidence and diagnosis rates was applied to the 2004 national seroprevalence survey. In 2014, an estimated 74,102 individuals aged 18 to 80 were undiagnosed for chronic HCV infection (plausible interval: 64,920-83,283) compared with 100,868 [95%CI: 58,534-143,202] in 2004. Men aged 18-59 represented approximately half of the undiagnosed population in 2014. The proportion of undiagnosed individuals in 2004 (43%) varied from 21.9% to 74.1% in the 1945-1965 and 1924-1944 birth cohorts. Consequently, age and gender distributions between the chronically-infected (diagnosed and undiagnosed) and undiagnosed HCV populations were different, the 1945-1965 birth cohort representing 48.9% and 24.7%, respectively. Many individuals were still undiagnosed in 2014 despite a marked reduction with respect to 2004. The present work contributed to the 2014 recommendation of a new French complementary screening strategy, consisting in one-time simultaneous HCV, HBV and HIV testing in men aged 18-60. Further studies are needed to assess the cost-effectiveness and feasibility of such a strategy. We also demonstrated that data on the undiagnosed HCV population are crucial to help adapt testing strategies, as the features of the chronically-infected HCV population are very distinct.

Combining waterfowl and breeding bird survey data to estimate wood duck breeding population size in the Atlantic Flyway

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guthrie Zimmerman,; Sauer, John; Fleming, Kathy; Link, William; Pamela R. Garrettson,

2015-01-01

We combined data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey (AFBWS) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to estimate the number of wood ducks (Aix sponsa) in the United States portion of the Atlantic Flyway from 1993 to 2013. The AFBWS is a plot-based survey that covers most of the northern and central portions of the Flyway; when analyzed with adjustments for survey time of day effects, these data can be used to estimate population size. The BBS provides an index of wood duck abundance along roadside routes. Although factors influencing change in BBS counts over time can be controlled in BBS analysis, BBS indices alone cannot be used to derive population size estimates. We used AFBWS data to scale BBS indices for Bird Conservation Regions (BCR), basing the scaling factors on the ratio of estimated AFBWS population sizes to regional BBS indices for portions of BCRs that were common to both surveys. We summed scaled BBS results for portions of the Flyway not covered by the AFBWS with AFBWS population estimates to estimate a mean yearly total of 1,295,875 (mean 95% CI: 1,013,940–1,727,922) wood ducks. Scaling factors varied among BCRs from 16.7 to 148.0; the mean scaling factor was 68.9 (mean 95% CI: 53.5–90.9). Flyway-wide, population estimates from the combined analysis were consistent with alternative estimates derived from harvest data, and also provide population estimates within states and BCRs. We recommend their use in harvest and habitat management within the Atlantic Flyway.

Empirical links between natural mortality and recovery in marine fishes.

PubMed

Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Kuparinen, Anna

2017-06-14

Probability of species recovery is thought to be correlated with specific aspects of organismal life history, such as age at maturity and longevity, and how these affect rates of natural mortality ( M ) and maximum per capita population growth ( r max ). Despite strong theoretical underpinnings, these correlates have been based on predicted rather than realized population trajectories following threat mitigation. Here, we examine the level of empirical support for postulated links between a suite of life-history traits (related to maturity, age, size and growth) and recovery in marine fishes. Following threat mitigation (medium time since cessation of overfishing = 20 years), 71% of 55 temperate populations had fully recovered, the remainder exhibiting, on average, negligible change (impaired recovery). Singly, life-history traits did not influence recovery status. In combination, however, those that jointly reflect length-based mortality at maturity, M α , revealed that recovered populations have higher M α , which we hypothesize to reflect local adaptations associated with greater r max But, within populations, the smaller sizes at maturity generated by overfishing are predicted to increase M α , slowing recovery and increasing its uncertainty. We conclude that recovery potential is greater for populations adapted to high M but that temporal increases in M concomitant with smaller size at maturity will have the opposite effect. The recovery metric documented here ( M α ) has a sound theoretical basis, is significantly correlated with direct estimates of M that directly reflect r max , is not reliant on data-intensive time series, can be readily estimated, and offers an empirically defensible correlate of recovery, given its clear links to the positive and impaired responses to threat mitigation that have been observed in fish populations over the past three decades. © 2017 The Author(s).

Impact of population structure, effective bottleneck time, and allele frequency on linkage disequilibrium maps

PubMed Central

Zhang, Weihua; Collins, Andrew; Gibson, Jane; Tapper, William J.; Hunt, Sarah; Deloukas, Panos; Bentley, David R.; Morton, Newton E.

2004-01-01

Genetic maps in linkage disequilibrium (LD) units play the same role for association mapping as maps in centimorgans provide at much lower resolution for linkage mapping. Association mapping of genes determining disease susceptibility and other phenotypes is based on the theory of LD, here applied to relations with three phenomena. To test the theory, markers at high density along a 10-Mb continuous segment of chromosome 20q were studied in African-American, Asian, and Caucasian samples. Population structure, whether created by pooling samples from divergent populations or by the mating pattern in a mixed population, is accurately bioassayed from genotype frequencies. The effective bottleneck time for Eurasians is substantially less than for migration out of Africa, reflecting later bottlenecks. The classical dependence of allele frequency on mutation age does not hold for the generally shorter time span of inbreeding and LD. Limitation of the classical theory to mutation age justifies the assumption of constant time in a LD map, except for alleles that were rare at the effective bottleneck time or have arisen since. This assumption is derived from the Malecot model and verified in all samples. Tested measures of relative efficiency, support intervals, and localization error determine the operating characteristics of LD maps that are applicable to every sexually reproducing species, with implications for association mapping, high-resolution linkage maps, evolutionary inference, and identification of recombinogenic sequences. PMID:15604137

Detecting critical periods in larval flatfish populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, R. Christopher; Witting, David A.; Lewis, Stephen J.

2001-06-01

We evaluate the time-course of deaths and evidence of periods of increased mortality (i.e., critical periods) in laboratory populations of larval flatfish. First, we make the distinction between age-at-death and abundance-at-time data for fish larvae, the latter being typical in studies of natural populations. Next, we describe an experimental investigation of age- and temperature-dependent mortality in larval winter flounder, Pseudopleuronectes americanus. The survivorship curves of these populations differed significantly in both the magnitude and time-course of mortality among the four water temperatures evaluated (7, 10, 13, and 16°C). Mortality was highest in the cooler temperatures and concentrated in the third quarter of larval life, largely concurrent with settlement of surviving members of the cohort. Among the statistical methods for analysing survival data, the proportional-hazards model with time-varying covariates proved best at capturing the patterns of age-specific mortalities. We conclude that fair appraisals of recruitment hypotheses which are predicated on periods of high, age-specific mortality that vary with environmental conditions (e.g., Hjort's critical period hypothesis) will require: (1) data that are based on age, not time; (2) data that are of higher temporal resolution than commonly available at present and (3) analytical methods that are sensitive to irregularities in survivorship curves. We suggest four research approaches for evaluating critical periods in nature.

Impact of population structure, effective bottleneck time, and allele frequency on linkage disequilibrium maps.

PubMed

Zhang, Weihua; Collins, Andrew; Gibson, Jane; Tapper, William J; Hunt, Sarah; Deloukas, Panos; Bentley, David R; Morton, Newton E

2004-12-28

Genetic maps in linkage disequilibrium (LD) units play the same role for association mapping as maps in centimorgans provide at much lower resolution for linkage mapping. Association mapping of genes determining disease susceptibility and other phenotypes is based on the theory of LD, here applied to relations with three phenomena. To test the theory, markers at high density along a 10-Mb continuous segment of chromosome 20q were studied in African-American, Asian, and Caucasian samples. Population structure, whether created by pooling samples from divergent populations or by the mating pattern in a mixed population, is accurately bioassayed from genotype frequencies. The effective bottleneck time for Eurasians is substantially less than for migration out of Africa, reflecting later bottlenecks. The classical dependence of allele frequency on mutation age does not hold for the generally shorter time span of inbreeding and LD. Limitation of the classical theory to mutation age justifies the assumption of constant time in a LD map, except for alleles that were rare at the effective bottleneck time or have arisen since. This assumption is derived from the Malecot model and verified in all samples. Tested measures of relative efficiency, support intervals, and localization error determine the operating characteristics of LD maps that are applicable to every sexually reproducing species, with implications for association mapping, high-resolution linkage maps, evolutionary inference, and identification of recombinogenic sequences.

Relation of pregnancy and neonatal factors to subsequent development of childhood epilepsy: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Whitehead, Elizabeth; Dodds, Linda; Joseph, K S; Gordon, Kevin E; Wood, Ellen; Allen, Alexander C; Camfield, Peter; Dooley, Joseph M

2006-04-01

We examined the effect of pregnancy and neonatal factors on the subsequent development of childhood epilepsy in a population-based cohort study. Children born between January 1986 and December 2000 in Nova Scotia, Canada were followed up to December 2001. Data on pregnancy and neonatal events and on diagnoses of childhood epilepsy were obtained through record linkage of 2 population-based databases: the Nova Scotia Atlee Perinatal Database and the Canadian Epilepsy Database and Registry. Factors analyzed included events during the prenatal, labor and delivery, and neonatal time periods. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals. There were 648 new cases of epilepsy diagnosed among 124,207 live births, for an overall rate of 63 per 100,000 person-years. Incidence rates were highest among children <1 year of age. In adjusted analyses, factors significantly associated with an increased risk of epilepsy included eclampsia, neonatal seizures, central nervous system (CNS) anomalies, placental abruption, major non-CNS anomalies, neonatal metabolic disorders, neonatal CNS diseases, previous low birth weight infant, infection in pregnancy, small for gestational age, unmarried, and not breastfeeding infant at the time of discharge from hospital. Our study supports the concept that prenatal factors contribute to the occurrence of subsequent childhood epilepsy.

Application of the stage-projection model with density-dependent fecundity to the population dynamics of Spanish ibex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escos, J.; Alados, C.L.; Emlen, John M.

1994-01-01

A stage-class population model with density-feedback term included was used to identify the most critical parameters determining the population dynamics of female Spanish ibex (Capra pyrenaica) in southern Spain. A population in the Cazorla and Segura mountains is rapidly declining, but the eastern Sierra Nevada population is growing. The stable population density obtained using estimated values of kid and adult survival (0.49 and 0.87, respectively) and with fecundity equal to 0.367 in the absence of density feedback is 12.7 or 16.82 individuals/km2, based on a non-time-lagged and a time-lagged model, respectively. Given the maximum estimate of fecundity and an adult survival rate of 0.87, a kid survival rate of at least 0.41 is required to avoid extinction. At the minimum fecundity estimate, kid survival would have to exceed 0.52. Elasticities were used to estimate the influence of variation in life-cycle parameters on the intrinsic rate of increase. Adult survival is the most critical parameter, while fecundity and juvenile survival are less important. An increase in adult survival from 0.87 to 0.91 in the Cazorla and Segura mountains population would almost stabilize the population in the absence of stochastic variation, while the same increase in the Sierra Nevada population would yield population growth of 4–5% per annum. A reduction in adult survival to 0.83 results in population decline in both cases.

Nonadiabatic nuclear dynamics of the ammonia cation studied by surface hopping classical trajectory calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belyaev, Andrey K., E-mail: belyaev@herzen.spb.ru; Domcke, Wolfgang, E-mail: wolfgang.domcke@ch.tum.de; Lasser, Caroline, E-mail: classer@ma.tum.de

The Landau–Zener (LZ) type classical-trajectory surface-hopping algorithm is applied to the nonadiabatic nuclear dynamics of the ammonia cation after photoionization of the ground-state neutral molecule to the excited states of the cation. The algorithm employs a recently proposed formula for nonadiabatic LZ transition probabilities derived from the adiabatic potential energy surfaces. The evolution of the populations of the ground state and the two lowest excited adiabatic states is calculated up to 200 fs. The results agree well with quantum simulations available for the first 100 fs based on the same potential energy surfaces. Three different time scales are detected formore » the nuclear dynamics: Ultrafast Jahn–Teller dynamics between the excited states on a 5 fs time scale; fast transitions between the excited state and the ground state within a time scale of 20 fs; and relatively slow partial conversion of a first-excited-state population to the ground state within a time scale of 100 fs. Beyond 100 fs, the adiabatic electronic populations are nearly constant due to a dynamic equilibrium between the three states. The ultrafast nonradiative decay of the excited-state populations provides a qualitative explanation of the experimental evidence that the ammonia cation is nonfluorescent.« less

Optimal sampling strategies for detecting zoonotic disease epidemics.

PubMed

Ferguson, Jake M; Langebrake, Jessica B; Cannataro, Vincent L; Garcia, Andres J; Hamman, Elizabeth A; Martcheva, Maia; Osenberg, Craig W

2014-06-01

The early detection of disease epidemics reduces the chance of successful introductions into new locales, minimizes the number of infections, and reduces the financial impact. We develop a framework to determine the optimal sampling strategy for disease detection in zoonotic host-vector epidemiological systems when a disease goes from below detectable levels to an epidemic. We find that if the time of disease introduction is known then the optimal sampling strategy can switch abruptly between sampling only from the vector population to sampling only from the host population. We also construct time-independent optimal sampling strategies when conducting periodic sampling that can involve sampling both the host and the vector populations simultaneously. Both time-dependent and -independent solutions can be useful for sampling design, depending on whether the time of introduction of the disease is known or not. We illustrate the approach with West Nile virus, a globally-spreading zoonotic arbovirus. Though our analytical results are based on a linearization of the dynamical systems, the sampling rules appear robust over a wide range of parameter space when compared to nonlinear simulation models. Our results suggest some simple rules that can be used by practitioners when developing surveillance programs. These rules require knowledge of transition rates between epidemiological compartments, which population was initially infected, and of the cost per sample for serological tests.

Physical activity levels, sport activities, and risk of acute myocardial infarction: results of the INTERHEART study in China.

PubMed

Cheng, Xiaoru; Li, Wei; Guo, Jin; Wang, Yang; Gu, Hongqiu; Teo, Koon; Liu, Lisheng; Yusuf, Salim

2014-02-01

Physical activity (PA) during leisure time has been inversely associated with cardiovascular disease risk in the Western populations. We evaluated PA at work and leisure time in relation to acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Chinese population. We conducted a hospital-based case-control study. The cases had first AMI (n = 2909). The controls (n = 2947) were matched to the cases in age and sex. The odds ratios (ORs) of leisure-time PA for strenuous exercise compared to mainly sedentary was 0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61-0.90) and for moderate exercise it was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.85-1.08). Multivariate adjustment did not substantially alter the association. The ORs of work-related PA for heavy PA compared to mainly sedentary was 1.44 (95% CI: 1.06-1.94), for climbing and lifting was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.77-.30), and for walking was 0.90 (95%CI: 0.75-1.07). Leisure-time PA was protective for AMI risk compared to sedentary lifestyles in a population in China.

Association between population density and reported incidence, characteristics and outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Sweden.

PubMed

Strömsöe, A; Svensson, L; Claesson, A; Lindkvist, J; Lundström, A; Herlitz, J

2011-10-01

To describe the reported incidence of out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and the characteristics and outcome after OHCA in relation to population density in Sweden. All patients participating in the Swedish Cardiac Arrest Register between 2008 and 2009 in (a) 20 of 21 regions (n=6457) and in (b) 165 of 292 municipalities (n=3522) in Sweden, took part in the survey. The regional population density varied between 3 and 310 inhabitants per km(2) in 2009. In 2008-2009, the number of reported cardiac arrests varied between 13 and 52 per 100,000 inhabitants and year. Survival to 1 month varied between 2% and 14% during the same period in different regions. With regard to population density, based on municipalities, bystander CPR (p=0.04) as well as cardiac etiology (p=0.002) were more frequent in less populated areas. Ambulance response time was longer in less populated areas (p<0.0001). There was no significant association between population density and survival to 1 month after OHCA or incidence (adjusted for age and gender) of OHCA. There was no significant association between population density and survival to 1 month after OHCA or incidence (adjusted for age and gender) of OHCA. However, bystander CPR, cardiac etiology and longer response times were more frequent in less populated areas. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time Trend Analysis of Oral Cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2010.

PubMed

Iranfar, Khosro; Mokhayeri, Yaser; Mohammadi, Gohar

2016-01-01

There is a considerable lack of understanding of oral cancer incidence, especially its time trend in Iran. In this study, the authors aimed to analyze time trend of oral cancer incidence with a focus on differences by gender in a period of six years - from 2005 to 2010. Both population-based cancer registry and national cancer registry (NCR) data based on pathologic reports from 2005 to 2010 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). Population data were also received from Statistical Centre of Iran. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) based on the World Standard Population were then calculated. Finally, Negative Binomial regression was run for time trend analysis. The maximum ASR for males was calculated as 2.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2008 and the minimum was observed as 1.9 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Meanwhile, the maximum ASR for females was estimated as 1.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2009 and the minimum was calculated as 1.6 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Additionally, in females, incidence risk ratio (IRR) did not show a clear decreasing or increasing trend during the six years. Nevertheless, in males an increasing trend was observed. The maximum IRR adjusted for age group and province, for females was reported in 2009 (IRR=1.05 95% CI: 0.90-1.23), and for males was estimated in 2010 (IRR=1/2 95% CI: 1.04 - 1.38). Our findings highlight disparities between oral cancer incidence trends in males and females over the six years from 2005 to 2010.

The Need for Consensus and Transparency in Assessing Population-Based Rates of Positive Circumferential Radial Margins in Rectal Cancer: Data from Consecutive Cases in a Large Region of Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Keng, Christine; Coates, Angela; Grubac, Vanja; Lovrics, Peter; DeNardi, Franco; Thabane, Lehana; Simunovic, Marko

2016-02-01

A positive circumferential radial margin (CRM) after rectal cancer surgery is an important predictor of local recurrence. The definition of a positive CRM differs internationally, and reported rates vary greatly in the literature. This study used time-series population-based data to assess positive CRM rates in a region over time and to inform future methods of CRM analysis in a defined geographic area. Chart reviews provided relevant data from consecutive patients undergoing rectal cancer surgery between 2006 and 2012 in all hospitals of the authors' region. Outcomes included rates for pathologic examination of CRM, CRM distance reporting, and positive CRM. The rate of positive CRM was calculated using various definitions. The variations included positive margin cutoffs of CRM at 1 mm or less versus 2 mm or less and inclusion or exclusion of cases without CRM assessment. In this study, 1222 consecutive rectal cancer cases were analyzed. The rate for pathology reporting of CRM distance increased from 54.7 to 93.2 % during the study. Depending on how the rate of positive CRM was defined, its value varied 8.5 to 19.4 % in 2006 and 6.0 to 12.5 % in 2012. Using a pre-specified definition, the rate of positive CRM decreased over time from 14.0 to 6.3 %. A marked increase in CRM distance reporting was observed, whereas the rates of positive CRM dropped, suggesting improved pathologist and surgeon performance over time. Changing definitions greatly influenced the rates of positive CRM, indicating the need for more transparency when such population-based rates are reported in the literature.

Ulcerative colitis: patient characteristics may predict 10-yr disease recurrence in a European-wide population-based cohort.

PubMed

Höie, Ole; Wolters, Frank; Riis, Lene; Aamodt, Geir; Solberg, Camilla; Bernklev, Tomm; Odes, Selwyn; Mouzas, Iannis A; Beltrami, Marina; Langholz, Ebbe; Stockbrügger, Reinhold; Vatn, Morten; Moum, Bjorn

2007-08-01

Cumulative 10-yr relapse rates in ulcerative colitis (UC) of 70% to almost 100% have been reported in regional studies. The aim of this study was to determine the relapse rate in UC in a European population-based cohort 10 yr after diagnosis and to identify factors that may influence the risk of relapse. From 1991 to 1993, 771 patients with UC from seven European countries and Israel were prospectively included in a population-based inception cohort and followed for 10 yr. A relapse was defined as an increase in UC-related symptoms leading to changes in medical treatment or surgery. The cumulative relapse rate, time to first relapse, and number of relapses in the follow-up period were recorded and possible causative factors were investigated. The cumulative relapse rate of patients with at least one relapse was 0.67 (95% CI 0.63-0.71). The time to first relapse showed a greater hazard ratio (HR) (1.2, CI 1.0-1.5) for women and for patients with a high level of education (1.4, CI 1.1-1.8). The number of relapses decreased with age, and current smokers had a lower relapse rate (0.8, CI 0.6-0.9) than nonsmokers. The relapse rate in women was 1.2 (CI 1.1-1.3) times higher than in men. An inverse relation was found between the time to the first relapse and the total number of relapses. In 67% of patients, there was at least one relapse. Smoking status, level of education, and possibly female gender were found to influence the risk of relapse.

Early mortality in multiple myeloma: the time-dependent impact of comorbidity: A population-based study in 621 real-life patients.

PubMed

Ríos-Tamayo, Rafael; Sáinz, Juan; Martínez-López, Joaquín; Puerta, José Manuel; Chang, Daysi-Yoe-Ling; Rodríguez, Teresa; Garrido, Pilar; de Veas, José Luís García; Romero, Antonio; Moratalla, Lucía; López-Fernández, Elisa; González, Pedro Antonio; Sánchez, María José; Jiménez-Moleón, José Juan; Jurado, Manuel; Lahuerta, Juan José

2016-07-01

Multiple myeloma is a heterogeneous disease with variable survival; this variability cannot be fully explained by the current systems of risk stratification. Early mortality remains a serious obstacle to further improve the trend toward increased survival demonstrated in recent years. However, the definition of early mortality is not standardized yet. Importantly, no study has focused on the impact of comorbidity on early mortality in multiple myeloma to date. Therefore, we analyzed the role of baseline comorbidity in a large population-based cohort of 621 real-life myeloma patients over a 31-year period. To evaluate early mortality, a sequential multivariate regression model at 2, 6, and 12 months from diagnosis was performed. It was demonstrated that comorbidity had an independent impact on early mortality, which is differential and time-dependent. Besides renal failure, respiratory disease at 2 months, liver disease at 6 months, and hepatitis virus C infection at 12 months, were, respectively, associated with early mortality, adjusting for other well-established prognostic factors. On the other hand, the long-term monitoring in our study points out a modest downward trend in early mortality over time. This is the first single institution population-based study aiming to assess the impact of comorbidity on early mortality in multiple myeloma. It is suggested that early mortality should be analyzed at three key time points (2, 6, and 12 months), in order to allow comparisons between studies. Comorbidity plays a critical role in the outcome of myeloma patients in terms of early mortality. Am. J. Hematol. 91:700-704, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessment of on-time vaccination coverage in population subgroups: A record linkage cohort study.

PubMed

Moore, Hannah C; Fathima, Parveen; Gidding, Heather F; de Klerk, Nicholas; Liu, Bette; Sheppeard, Vicky; Effler, Paul V; Snelling, Thomas L; McIntyre, Peter; Blyth, Christopher C

2018-05-31

Reported infant vaccination coverage at age 12 months in Australia is >90%. On-time coverage of the 2-4-6 month schedule and coverage in specific populations is rarely reported. We conducted a population-based cohort study of 1.9 million Australian births, 1996-2012, combining individual birth and perinatal records with immunisation records through probabilistic linkage. We assessed on-time coverage across 13 demographic and perinatal characteristics of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccines (DTP) defined as vaccination 14 days prior to the scheduled due date, to 30 days afterwards. On-time DTP vaccination coverage in non-Aboriginal infants was 88.1% for the 2-month dose, 82.0% for 4-month dose, and 76.7% for 6-month dose; 3-dose coverage was 91.3% when assessed at 12 months. On-time DTP coverage for Aboriginal infants was 77.0%, 66.5%, and 61.0% for the 2-4-6 month dose; 3-dose coverage at 12 months was 79.3%. Appreciable differences in on-time coverage were observed across population subgroups. On-time coverage in non-Aboriginal infants born to mothers with ≥3 previous pregnancies was 62.5% for the 6-month dose (47.9% for Aboriginal infants); up to 23.5 percentage points lower than for first-borns. Infants born to mothers who smoked during pregnancy had coverage 8.7-10.3 percentage points lower than infants born to non-smoking mothers for the 4- and 6-month dose. A linear relationship was apparent between increasing socio-economic disadvantage and decreasing on-time coverage. On-time coverage of the 2-4-6 month schedule is only 50-60% across specific population subgroups representing a significant avoidable public health risk. Aboriginal infants, multiparous mothers, and those who are socio-economically disadvantaged are key groups most likely to benefit from targeted programs addressing vaccine timeliness. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Usage of purchased self-tests for HIV and sexually transmitted infections in Amsterdam, the Netherlands: results of population-based and serial cross-sectional studies among the general population and sexual risk groups.

PubMed

Bil, Janneke P; Prins, Maria; Stolte, Ineke G; Dijkshoorn, Henriëtte; Heijman, Titia; Snijder, Marieke B; Davidovich, Udi; Zuure, Freke R

2017-09-21

There are limited data on the usage of commercially bought self-tests for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Therefore, we studied HIV/STI self-test usage and its determinants among the general population and sexual risk groups between 2007 and 2015 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Data were collected in four different studies among the general population (S1 - 2) and sexual risk groups (S3 - 4). S1 - Amsterdam residents participating in representative population-based surveys (2008 and 2012; n=6044) drawn from the municipality register; S2 - Participants of a population-based study stratified by ethnicity drawn from the municipality register of Amsterdam (2011-2015; n=17 603); S3 - Men having sex with men (MSM) participating in an HIV observational cohort study (2008 and 2013; n=597) and S4 - STI clinic clients participating in a cross-sectional survey (2007-2012; n=5655). Prevalence of HIV/STI self-test usage and its determinants. The prevalence of HIV/STI self-test usage in the preceding 6-12 months varied between 1% and 2% across studies. Chlamydia self-tests were most commonly used, except among MSM in S3. Chlamydia and syphilis self-test usage increased over time among the representative sample of Amsterdam residents (S1) and chlamydia self-test usage increased over time among STI clinic clients (S4). Self-test usage was associated with African Surinamese or Ghanaian ethnic origin (S2), being woman or MSM (S1 and 4) and having had a higher number of sexual partners (S1-2). Among those in the general population who tested for HIV/STI in the preceding 12 months, 5-9% used a self-test. Despite low HIV/STI self-test usage, we observed increases over time in chlamydia and syphilis self-test usage. Furthermore, self-test usage was higher among high-risk individuals in the general population. It is important to continue monitoring self-test usage and informing the public about the unknown quality of available self-tests in the Netherlands and about the pros and cons of self-testing. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

1998-01-01

Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

Physical Activity, Study Sitting Time, Leisure Sitting Time, and Sleep Time Are Differently Associated With Obesity in Korean Adolescents: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Kong, Il Gyu; Lee, Hyo-Jeong; Kim, So Young; Sim, Songyong; Choi, Hyo Geun

2015-11-01

Low physical activity, long leisure sitting time, and short sleep time are risk factors for obesity, but the association with study sitting time is unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between these factors and obesity.We analyzed the association between physical activity, study sitting time, leisure sitting time, and sleep time and subject weight (underweight, healthy weight, overweight, and obese), using data from a large population-based survey, the 2013 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey. Data from 53,769 participants were analyzed using multinomial logistic regression analyses with complex sampling. Age, sex, region of residence, economic level, smoking, stress level, physical activity, sitting time for study, sitting time for leisure, and sleep time were adjusted as the confounders.Low physical activity (adjusted odds ratios [AORs] = 1.03, 1.12) and long leisure sitting time (AORs = 1.15, 1.32) were positively associated with overweight and obese. Low physical activity (AOR = 1.33) and long leisure sitting time (AOR = 1.12) were also associated with underweight. Study sitting time was negatively associated with underweight (AOR = 0.86) but was unrelated to overweight (AOR = 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91-1.03) and obese (AOR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.84-1.04). Sleep time (<6 hours; ≥6 hours, <7 hours; ≥7 hours, <8 hours) was adversely associated with underweight (AORs = 0.67, 0.79, and 0.88) but positively associated with overweight (AORs = 1.19, 1.17, and 1.08) and obese (AORs = 1.33, 1.36, and 1.30) in a dose-response relationship.In adolescents, increasing physical activity, decreasing leisure sitting time, and obtaining sufficient sleep would be beneficial in maintaining a healthy weight. However, study sitting time was not associated with overweight or obese.

Worldwide stroke incidence and early case fatality reported in 56 population-based studies: a systematic review.

PubMed

Feigin, Valery L; Lawes, Carlene M M; Bennett, Derrick A; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Parag, Varsha

2009-04-01

This systematic review of population-based studies of the incidence and early (21 days to 1 month) case fatality of stroke is based on studies published from 1970 to 2008. Stroke incidence (incident strokes only) and case fatality from 21 days to 1 month post-stroke were analysed by four decades of study, two country income groups (high-income countries and low to middle income countries, in accordance with the World Bank's country classification) and, when possible, by stroke pathological type: ischaemic stroke, primary intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage. This Review shows a divergent, statistically significant trend in stroke incidence rates over the past four decades, with a 42% decrease in stroke incidence in high-income countries and a greater than 100% increase in stroke incidence in low to middle income countries. In 2000-08, the overall stroke incidence rates in low to middle income countries have, for the first time, exceeded the level of stroke incidence seen in high-income countries, by 20%. The time to decide whether or not stroke is an issue that should be on the governmental agenda in low to middle income countries has now passed. Now is the time for action.

[Are Interventions Promoting Physical Activity Cost-Effective? A Systematic Review of Reviews].

PubMed

Rütten, Alfred; Abu-Omar, Karim; Burlacu, Ionut; Schätzlein, Valentin; Suhrcke, Marc

2017-03-01

On the basis of international published reviews, this systematic review aims to determine the health economic benefits of interventions promoting physical activity.This review of reviews is based on a systematic literature research in 10 databases (e. g. PubMed, Scopus, SPORTDiscus) supplemented by hand searches from January 2000 to October 2015. Publications were considered in the English or German language only. Results of identified reviews were derived.In total, 18 reviews were identified that could be attributed to interventions promoting physical activity (2 reviews focusing on population-based physical activity interventions, 10 reviews on individual-based and 6 reviews on both population-based and individual-based physical activity interventions). Results showed that population-based physical activity interventions are of great health economic potential if reaching a wider population at comparably low costs. Outstanding are political and environmental strategies, as well as interventions supporting behavioural change through information. The most comprehensive documentation for interventions promoting physical activity could be found for individual-based strategies (i. e. exercise advice or exercise programs). However, such programs are comparatively less cost-effective due to limited reach and higher utilization of resources.The present study provides an extensive review and analysis of the current international state of research regarding the health economic evaluation of interventions promoting physical activity. Results show favourable cost-effectiveness for interventions promoting physical activity, though significant differences in the effectiveness between various interventions were noticed. The greatest potential for cost-effectiveness can be seen in population-based interventions. At the same time, there is a need to acknowledge the limitations of the economic evidence in this field which are attributable to methodological challenges and research deficits. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Robotic excavator trajectory control using an improved GA based PID controller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Hao; Yin, Chen-Bo; Weng, Wen-wen; Ma, Wei; Zhou, Jun-jing; Jia, Wen-hua; Zhang, Zi-li

2018-05-01

In order to achieve excellent trajectory tracking performances, an improved genetic algorithm (IGA) is presented to search for the optimal proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller parameters for the robotic excavator. Firstly, the mathematical model of kinematic and electro-hydraulic proportional control system of the excavator are analyzed based on the mechanism modeling method. On this basis, the actual model of the electro-hydraulic proportional system are established by the identification experiment. Furthermore, the population, the fitness function, the crossover probability and mutation probability of the SGA are improved: the initial PID parameters are calculated by the Ziegler-Nichols (Z-N) tuning method and the initial population is generated near it; the fitness function is transformed to maintain the diversity of the population; the probability of crossover and mutation are adjusted automatically to avoid premature convergence. Moreover, a simulation study is carried out to evaluate the time response performance of the proposed controller, i.e., IGA based PID against the SGA and Z-N based PID controllers with a step signal. It was shown from the simulation study that the proposed controller provides the least rise time and settling time of 1.23 s and 1.81 s, respectively against the other tested controllers. Finally, two types of trajectories are designed to validate the performances of the control algorithms, and experiments are performed on the excavator trajectory control experimental platform. It was demonstrated from the experimental work that the proposed IGA based PID controller improves the trajectory accuracy of the horizontal line and slope line trajectories by 23.98% and 23.64%, respectively in comparison to the SGA tuned PID controller. The results further indicate that the proposed IGA tuning based PID controller is effective for improving the tracking accuracy, which may be employed in the trajectory control of an actual excavator.

Factors Associated with Physical Inactivity among Adult Urban Population of Puducherry, India: A Population Based Cross-sectional Study.

PubMed

Newtonraj, Ariarathinam; Murugan, Natesan; Singh, Zile; Chauhan, Ramesh Chand; Velavan, Anandan; Mani, Manikandan

2017-05-01

Physical inactivity is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide. Increase in physical activity decreases the incidence of cardiovascular diseases, Type 2 diabetes, stroke, and improves psychological wellbeing. To study the level of physical inactivity among the adult population in an urban area of Puducherry in India and its associated risk factors. This cross-sectional study was conducted among 569 adult participants from an urban area of Pondicherry. The level of physical inactivity was measured by using WHO standard Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ). Overall prevalence of physical inactivity in our study was 49.7% (CI: 45.6-53.8). Among the physically active people, contribution of physical activity by work was 77.4%, leisure time activities were 11.6% and transport time was 11%. Both men and women were equally inactive {Physically inactive among women was 50% (CI:44.1-55.9)} and {Physically inactive among men was 49.5% (CI:43.8-55.2)}. Prevalence of physical inactivity was increasing with increasing age. Non tobacco users were two times more active than tobacco users {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 2.183 (1.175- 4.057)}. Employed were more active as compared to retired {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.412 (0.171-0.991)}, students {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.456 (0.196-1.060)}, house wives {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.757 (0.509-1.127)} and unemployed {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.538 (0.271-1.068)}. Non alcoholics were only 0.34 times as active as alcoholics. Level of physical activity was found to be insufficient among adult urban population of Puducherry. Working adult population found to be active, that too due to their work pattern. There is a need to promote leisure time and travelling time physical activity.

Parallel paleogenomic transects reveal complex genetic history of early European farmers

PubMed Central

Lipson, Mark; Szécsényi-Nagy, Anna; Mallick, Swapan; Pósa, Annamária; Stégmár, Balázs; Keerl, Victoria; Rohland, Nadin; Stewardson, Kristin; Ferry, Matthew; Michel, Megan; Oppenheimer, Jonas; Broomandkhoshbacht, Nasreen; Harney, Eadaoin; Nordenfelt, Susanne; Llamas, Bastien; Mende, Balázs Gusztáv; Köhler, Kitti; Oross, Krisztián; Bondár, Mária; Marton, Tibor; Osztás, Anett; Jakucs, János; Paluch, Tibor; Horváth, Ferenc; Csengeri, Piroska; Koós, Judit; Sebők, Katalin; Anders, Alexandra; Raczky, Pál; Regenye, Judit; Barna, Judit P.; Fábián, Szilvia; Serlegi, Gábor; Toldi, Zoltán; Nagy, Emese Gyöngyvér; Dani, János; Molnár, Erika; Pálfi, György; Márk, László; Melegh, Béla; Bánfai, Zsolt; Domboróczki, László; Fernández-Eraso, Javier; Mujika-Alustiza, José Antonio; Fernández, Carmen Alonso; Echevarría, Javier Jiménez; Bollongino, Ruth; Orschiedt, Jörg; Schierhold, Kerstin; Meller, Harald; Cooper, Alan; Burger, Joachim; Bánffy, Eszter; Alt, Kurt W.; Lalueza-Fox, Carles; Haak, Wolfgang; Reich, David

2017-01-01

Ancient DNA studies have established that Neolithic European populations were descended from Anatolian migrants1–8 who received a limited amount of admixture from resident hunter-gatherers3–5,9. Many open questions remain, however, about the spatial and temporal dynamics of population interactions and admixture during the Neolithic period. Using the highest-resolution genome-wide ancient DNA data set assembled to date—a total of 180 samples, 130 newly reported here, from the Neolithic and Chalcolithic of Hungary (6000–2900 BCE, n = 100), Germany (5500–3000 BCE, n = 42), and Spain (5500–2200 BCE, n = 38)—we investigate the population dynamics of Neolithization across Europe. We find that genetic diversity was shaped predominantly by local processes, with varied sources and proportions of hunter-gatherer ancestry among the three regions and through time. Admixture between groups with different ancestry profiles was pervasive and resulted in observable population transformation across almost all cultural transitions. Our results shed new light on the ways that gene flow reshaped European populations throughout the Neolithic period and demonstrate the potential of time-series-based sampling and modeling approaches to elucidate multiple dimensions of historical population interactions. PMID:29144465

National Surveys of Population Health: Big Data Analytics for Mobile Health Monitors.

PubMed

Schatz, Bruce R

2015-12-01

At the core of the healthcare crisis is fundamental lack of actionable data. Such data could stratify individuals within populations to predict which persons have which outcomes. If baselines existed for all variations of all conditions, then managing health could be improved by matching the measuring of individuals to their cohort in the population. The scale required for complete baselines involves effective National Surveys of Population Health (NSPH). Traditionally, these have been focused upon acute medicine, measuring people to contain the spread of epidemics. In recent decades, the focus has moved to chronic conditions as well, which require smaller measures over longer times. NSPH have long utilized quality of life questionnaires. Mobile Health Monitors, where computing technologies eliminate manual administration, provide richer data sets for health measurement. Older technologies of telephone interviews will be replaced by newer technologies of smartphone sensors to provide deeper individual measures at more frequent timings across larger-sized populations. Such continuous data can provide personal health records, supporting treatment guidelines specialized for population cohorts. Evidence-based medicine will become feasible by leveraging hundreds of millions of persons carrying mobile devices interacting with Internet-scale services for Big Data Analytics.

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations

PubMed Central

Anufriieva, Elena V.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

2014-01-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, asignificant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuatedbetween 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the paritiesof these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales. PMID:24668656

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations.

PubMed

Anufriieva, Elena V; Shadrin, Nickolai V

2014-03-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, a significant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuated between 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the parities of these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales.

Work Experience of the Population in 1972.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Anne M.

Based on the March 1973 survey for the Bureau of Labor Statistics by the Division of Labor Force Studies, the report shows that the proportion of workers employed full-time all year (1972) increased, mainly because of expansion in the service-producing industries. The survey provides information on the number of persons who worked at some time,…

The Effect on Non-Normal Distributions on the Integrated Moving Average Model of Time-Series Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doerann-George, Judith

The Integrated Moving Average (IMA) model of time series, and the analysis of intervention effects based on it, assume random shocks which are normally distributed. To determine the robustness of the analysis to violations of this assumption, empirical sampling methods were employed. Samples were generated from three populations; normal,…

Examining Proximal and Distal Influences on the Part-Time Student Experience through an Ecological Systems Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLinden, Mike

2017-01-01

This conceptual paper contributes to the literature base on promoting equality of opportunity for students in higher education through seeking to broaden understanding of the influences on part-time study in the United Kingdom (UK). These students constitute a significant proportion of the total student population in the UK with research…

Squared Euclidean distance: a statistical test to evaluate plant community change

Treesearch

Raymond D. Ratliff; Sylvia R. Mori

1993-01-01

The concepts and a procedure for evaluating plant community change using the squared Euclidean distance (SED) resemblance function are described. Analyses are based on the concept that Euclidean distances constitute a sample from a population of distances between sampling units (SUs) for a specific number of times and SUs. With different times, the distances will be...

A window-based time series feature extraction method.

PubMed

Katircioglu-Öztürk, Deniz; Güvenir, H Altay; Ravens, Ursula; Baykal, Nazife

2017-10-01

This study proposes a robust similarity score-based time series feature extraction method that is termed as Window-based Time series Feature ExtraCtion (WTC). Specifically, WTC generates domain-interpretable results and involves significantly low computational complexity thereby rendering itself useful for densely sampled and populated time series datasets. In this study, WTC is applied to a proprietary action potential (AP) time series dataset on human cardiomyocytes and three precordial leads from a publicly available electrocardiogram (ECG) dataset. This is followed by comparing WTC in terms of predictive accuracy and computational complexity with shapelet transform and fast shapelet transform (which constitutes an accelerated variant of the shapelet transform). The results indicate that WTC achieves a slightly higher classification performance with significantly lower execution time when compared to its shapelet-based alternatives. With respect to its interpretable features, WTC has a potential to enable medical experts to explore definitive common trends in novel datasets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the contribution of neighborhood parks to physical activity.

PubMed

Han, Bing; Cohen, Deborah; McKenzie, Thomas L

2013-11-01

To quantify the contribution of U.S. neighborhood parks to the time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) by the local population. Observational data on the use of 10 parks in five US cities collected during summer and fall 2008 were analyzed by a model-averaging approach. Estimated MVPA time accrued in parks was compared to estimated total MVPA time accrued by the local population, based upon national estimates. On average, parks provided roughly 4000hours of use and 1500 MVPA hours per week. Park use accounted for approximately 50% of the vigorous physical activity (VPA) time of those living within 0.5 miles of the park and 16% of those living within 1.0 miles of the park. Parks accounted for a modest proportion of moderate physical activity (MPA) time, about 14% and 4% for those living within 0.5 miles and 1.0 miles of the park, respectively. Parks have significant roles in supporting vigorous physical activity of the local population. Because they are underutilized and vigorous activity is critical to child development and adult physical fitness, efforts should be made to promote vigorous activity within local parks. © 2013.

Risks of road injuries in patients with bipolar disorder and associations with drug treatments: A population-based matched cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Vincent Chin-Hung; Yang, Yao-Hsu; Lee, Chuan-Pin; Wong, Jennifer; Ponton, Lynn; Lee, Yena; McIntyre, Roger S; Huang, Kuo-You; Wu, Shu-I

2018-01-15

Using a nation-wide, population-based dataset, we aimed to investigate the risk of road injury among individuals with bipolar disorder (BD) compared to individuals without BD. In addition, we investigated the putative moderating effects of prescription for lithium, anticonvulsants, antidepressants, and/or first- or second-generation antipsychotic agents on the association between BD and risk of road injury. As part of an16-year longitudinal cohort study, we compared the risk of road injuries among study subjects aged 16 and above with a diagnosis of BD, with ten age- and sex-matched sample of individuals without BD. Individuals were compared on measures of incidence on road injuries using medical claims data based on the ICD-9-CM codes: E800~807, E810~817, E819~830, E840~848. Time dependent Cox regression models were used to adjust for time-varying covariates such as age, and medication uses. Hazard ratios before and after adjusting for age, sex, other comorbidities, and drug use were calculated. 3953 people with BD were matched with 39,530 controls from general population. Adjusted hazard ratios revealed a 1.66-fold (95% CI 1.40-1.97) increase in risk of road injuries among bipolar subjects when compared to controls. Female gender, older age (i.e. over 80), residence in areas of highest levels of urbanization, and use of antidepressants were associated with a lower risk of road injuries. In this large, national, population-based cohort, BD was associated with an elevated risk of road injuries. However, prescriptions of antidepressants might help mitigate the foregoing risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Method paper--distance and travel time to casualty clinics in Norway based on crowdsourced postcode coordinates: a comparison with other methods.

PubMed

Raknes, Guttorm; Hunskaar, Steinar

2014-01-01

We describe a method that uses crowdsourced postcode coordinates and Google maps to estimate average distance and travel time for inhabitants of a municipality to a casualty clinic in Norway. The new method was compared with methods based on population centroids, median distance and town hall location, and we used it to examine how distance affects the utilisation of out-of-hours primary care services. At short distances our method showed good correlation with mean travel time and distance. The utilisation of out-of-hours services correlated with postcode based distances similar to previous research. The results show that our method is a reliable and useful tool for estimating average travel distances and travel times.

2001 Volvo Award Winner in Clinical Studies: Effects of a media campaign on back pain beliefs and its potential influence on management of low back pain in general practice.

PubMed

Buchbinder, R; Jolley, D; Wyatt, M

2001-12-01

Quasi-experimental, nonrandomized, nonequivalent, parallel group-controlled study involving before and after telephone surveys of the general population and postal surveys of general practitioners was conducted, with an adjacent state used as a control group. To evaluate the effectiveness of a population-based intervention designed to alter beliefs about back pain, influence medical management, and reduce disability and workers' compensation-related costs. A multimedia campaign begun during 1997 in Victoria, Australia, positively advised patients with back pain to stay active and exercise, not to rest for prolonged periods, and to remain at work. The campaign's impact on population beliefs about back pain and fear-avoidance beliefs was measured in telephone surveys, and the effect of the campaign on the potential management of low back pain by general practitioners was assessed by eliciting their likely approach to two hypothetical scenarios in mailed surveys. Demographically identical population groups in Victoria and the control state, New South Wales, were surveyed at three times: before, during, and after intervention in Victoria. The studies were completed by 4730 individuals in the general population and 2556 general practitioners. There were large statistically significant improvements in back pain beliefs over time in Victoria (mean scores on the Back Beliefs Questionnaire, 26.5, 28.4, and 29.7), but not in New South Wales (26.3, 26.2, and 26.3, respectively). Among those who reported back pain during the previous year, fear-avoidance beliefs about physical activity improved significantly in Victoria (mean scores on the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire for physical activity, 14, 12.5, and 11.6), but not in New South Wales (13.3, 13.6, and 12.7, respectively). General practitioners in Victoria reported significant improvements over time in beliefs about back pain management, as compared with their interstate colleagues. There were statistically significant interactions between state and time for 7 of 10 responses on management of acute low back pain, and for 6 of 10 responses on management of subacute low back pain. A population-based strategy of providing positive messages about back pain improves the beliefs of the general population and general practitioners about back pain and appears to influence medical management.

Surface intervalley scattering on GaAs(110) studied with picosecond laser photoemission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haight, R.; Silberman, J. A.

1990-01-01

Laser-based photoemission sources provide the unique opportunity to study dynamic electronic processes at surfaces and interfaces. Using angle-resolved, laser photoemission with < 1 ps time resolution, we have directly observed a new surface band at the X¯ point in the GaAs(110) surface Brillouin zone. The appearance of electron population in this valley occurs only as a result of scattering from the directly photoexcited valley at overlineГ. The momentum resolution of our experiment has permitted us to isolate the dynamic electron population changes at both overlineГ and X¯ and to deduce the scattering time between the two valleys.

The Built Environment and Health: Introducing Individual Space-Time Behavior

PubMed Central

Saarloos, Dick; Kim, Jae-Eun; Timmermans, Harry

2009-01-01

Many studies have examined the relationship between the built environment and health. Yet, the question of how and why the environment influences health behavior remains largely unexplored. As health promotion interventions work through the individuals in a targeted population, an explicit understanding of individual behavior is required to formulate and evaluate intervention strategies. Bringing in concepts from various fields, this paper proposes the use of an activity-based modeling approach for understanding and predicting, from the bottom up, how individuals interact with their environment and each other in space and time, and how their behaviors aggregate to population-level health outcomes. PMID:19578457

Reduction of a metapopulation genetic model to an effective one-island model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parra-Rojas, César; McKane, Alan J.

2018-04-01

We explore a model of metapopulation genetics which is based on a more ecologically motivated approach than is frequently used in population genetics. The size of the population is regulated by competition between individuals, rather than by artificially imposing a fixed population size. The increased complexity of the model is managed by employing techniques often used in the physical sciences, namely exploiting time-scale separation to eliminate fast variables and then constructing an effective model from the slow modes. We analyse this effective model and show that the predictions for the probability of fixation of the alleles and the mean time to fixation agree well with those found from numerical simulations of the original model. Contribution to the Focus Issue Evolutionary Modeling and Experimental Evolution edited by José Cuesta, Joachim Krug and Susanna Manrubia.

Ancestral Polymorphisms and Sex-Biased Migration Shaped the Demographic History of Brown Bears and Polar Bears

PubMed Central

Nakagome, Shigeki; Mano, Shuhei; Hasegawa, Masami

2013-01-01

Recent studies have reported discordant gene trees in the evolution of brown bears and polar bears. Genealogical histories are different among independent nuclear loci and between biparentally inherited autosomal DNA (aDNA) and matrilineal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Based on multi-locus genomic sequences from aDNA and mtDNA, we inferred the population demography of brown and polar bears and found that brown bears have 6 times (aDNA) or more than 14 times (mtDNA) larger population sizes than polar bears and that polar bear lineage is derived from within brown bear diversity. In brown bears, the effective population size ratio of mtDNA to aDNA was at least 0.62, which deviated from the expected value of 0.25, suggesting matriarchal population due to female philopatry and male-biased migration. These results emphasize that ancestral polymorphisms and sex-biased migration may have contributed to conflicting branching patterns in brown and polar bears across aDNA genes and mtDNA. PMID:24236053

Ancestral polymorphisms and sex-biased migration shaped the demographic history of brown bears and polar bears.

PubMed

Nakagome, Shigeki; Mano, Shuhei; Hasegawa, Masami

2013-01-01

Recent studies have reported discordant gene trees in the evolution of brown bears and polar bears. Genealogical histories are different among independent nuclear loci and between biparentally inherited autosomal DNA (aDNA) and matrilineal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Based on multi-locus genomic sequences from aDNA and mtDNA, we inferred the population demography of brown and polar bears and found that brown bears have 6 times (aDNA) or more than 14 times (mtDNA) larger population sizes than polar bears and that polar bear lineage is derived from within brown bear diversity. In brown bears, the effective population size ratio of mtDNA to aDNA was at least 0.62, which deviated from the expected value of 0.25, suggesting matriarchal population due to female philopatry and male-biased migration. These results emphasize that ancestral polymorphisms and sex-biased migration may have contributed to conflicting branching patterns in brown and polar bears across aDNA genes and mtDNA.

Minimal-assumption inference from population-genomic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissman, Daniel; Hallatschek, Oskar

Samples of multiple complete genome sequences contain vast amounts of information about the evolutionary history of populations, much of it in the associations among polymorphisms at different loci. Current methods that take advantage of this linkage information rely on models of recombination and coalescence, limiting the sample sizes and populations that they can analyze. We introduce a method, Minimal-Assumption Genomic Inference of Coalescence (MAGIC), that reconstructs key features of the evolutionary history, including the distribution of coalescence times, by integrating information across genomic length scales without using an explicit model of recombination, demography or selection. Using simulated data, we show that MAGIC's performance is comparable to PSMC' on single diploid samples generated with standard coalescent and recombination models. More importantly, MAGIC can also analyze arbitrarily large samples and is robust to changes in the coalescent and recombination processes. Using MAGIC, we show that the inferred coalescence time histories of samples of multiple human genomes exhibit inconsistencies with a description in terms of an effective population size based on single-genome data.

Population increase and environmental deterioration correspond with microlithic innovations in South Asia ca. 35,000 years ago

PubMed Central

Petraglia, Michael; Clarkson, Christopher; Boivin, Nicole; Haslam, Michael; Korisettar, Ravi; Chaubey, Gyaneshwer; Ditchfield, Peter; Fuller, Dorian; James, Hannah; Jones, Sacha; Kivisild, Toomas; Koshy, Jinu; Lahr, Marta Mirazón; Metspalu, Mait; Roberts, Richard; Arnold, Lee

2009-01-01

Genetic studies of South Asia's population history have led to postulations of a significant and early population expansion in the subcontinent, dating to sometime in the Late Pleistocene. We evaluate this argument, based on new mtDNA analyses, and find evidence for significant demographic transition in the subcontinent, dating to 35–28 ka. We then examine the paleoenvironmental and, particularly, archaeological records for this time period and note that this putative demographic event coincides with a period of ecological and technological change in South Asia. We document the development of a new diminutive stone blade (microlithic) technology beginning at 35–30 ka, the first time that the precocity of this transition has been recognized across the subcontinent. We argue that the transition to microlithic technology may relate to changes in subsistence practices, as increasingly large and probably fragmented populations exploited resources in contracting favorable ecological zones just before the onset of full glacial conditions. PMID:19620737

Population increase and environmental deterioration correspond with microlithic innovations in South Asia ca. 35,000 years ago.

PubMed

Petraglia, Michael; Clarkson, Christopher; Boivin, Nicole; Haslam, Michael; Korisettar, Ravi; Chaubey, Gyaneshwer; Ditchfield, Peter; Fuller, Dorian; James, Hannah; Jones, Sacha; Kivisild, Toomas; Koshy, Jinu; Lahr, Marta Mirazón; Metspalu, Mait; Roberts, Richard; Arnold, Lee

2009-07-28

Genetic studies of South Asia's population history have led to postulations of a significant and early population expansion in the subcontinent, dating to sometime in the Late Pleistocene. We evaluate this argument, based on new mtDNA analyses, and find evidence for significant demographic transition in the subcontinent, dating to 35-28 ka. We then examine the paleoenvironmental and, particularly, archaeological records for this time period and note that this putative demographic event coincides with a period of ecological and technological change in South Asia. We document the development of a new diminutive stone blade (microlithic) technology beginning at 35-30 ka, the first time that the precocity of this transition has been recognized across the subcontinent. We argue that the transition to microlithic technology may relate to changes in subsistence practices, as increasingly large and probably fragmented populations exploited resources in contracting favorable ecological zones just before the onset of full glacial conditions.

Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

PubMed

Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

2014-10-01

Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.

PubMed

Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George

2017-03-01

Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).

Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

A comparison of individual and population-derived vascular input functions for quantitative DCE-MRI in rats.

PubMed

Hormuth, David A; Skinner, Jack T; Does, Mark D; Yankeelov, Thomas E

2014-05-01

Dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) can quantitatively and qualitatively assess physiological characteristics of tissue. Quantitative DCE-MRI requires an estimate of the time rate of change of the concentration of the contrast agent in the blood plasma, the vascular input function (VIF). Measuring the VIF in small animals is notoriously difficult as it requires high temporal resolution images limiting the achievable number of slices, field-of-view, spatial resolution, and signal-to-noise. Alternatively, a population-averaged VIF could be used to mitigate the acquisition demands in studies aimed to investigate, for example, tumor vascular characteristics. Thus, the overall goal of this manuscript is to determine how the kinetic parameters estimated by a population based VIF differ from those estimated by an individual VIF. Eight rats bearing gliomas were imaged before, during, and after an injection of Gd-DTPA. K(trans), ve, and vp were extracted from signal-time curves of tumor tissue using both individual and population-averaged VIFs. Extended model voxel estimates of K(trans) and ve in all animals had concordance correlation coefficients (CCC) ranging from 0.69 to 0.98 and Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) ranging from 0.70 to 0.99. Additionally, standard model estimates resulted in CCCs ranging from 0.81 to 0.99 and PCCs ranging from 0.98 to 1.00, supporting the use of a population based VIF if an individual VIF is not available. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Proteomic-based stable isotope probing reveals taxonomically Distinct Patterns in Amino Acid Assimilation by Coastal Marine Bacterioplankton

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bryson, Samuel; Li, Zhou; Pett-Ridge, Jennifer

Heterotrophic marine bacterioplankton are a critical component of the carbon cycle, processing nearly a quarter of annual global primary production, yet defining how substrate utilization preferences and resource partitioning structure these microbial communities remains a challenge. In this study, we utilized proteomics-based stable isotope probing (proteomic SIP) to characterize the assimilation of amino acids by coastal marine bacterioplankton populations. We incubated microcosms of seawater collected from Newport, OR and Monterey Bay, CA with 1 M 13C-amino acids for 15 and 32 hours. Subsequent analysis of 13C incorporation into protein biomass quantified the frequency and extent of isotope enrichment for identifiedmore » proteins. Using these metrics we tested whether amino acid assimilation patterns were different for specific bacterioplankton populations. Proteins associated with Rhodobacterales and Alteromonadales tended to have a significantly high number of tandem mass spectra from 13C-enriched peptides, while Flavobacteriales and SAR11 proteins generally had significantly low numbers of 13C-enriched spectra. Rhodobacterales proteins associated with amino acid transport and metabolism had an increased frequency of 13C-enriched spectra at time-point 2, while Alteromonadales ribosomal proteins were 13C- enriched across time-points. Overall, proteomic SIP facilitated quantitative comparisons of dissolved free amino acids assimilation by specific taxa, both between sympatric populations and between protein functional groups within discrete populations, allowing an unprecedented examination of population-level metabolic responses to resource acquisition in complex microbial communities.« less

Proteomic-based stable isotope probing reveals taxonomically Distinct Patterns in Amino Acid Assimilation by Coastal Marine Bacterioplankton

DOE PAGES

Bryson, Samuel; Li, Zhou; Pett-Ridge, Jennifer; ...

2016-04-26

Heterotrophic marine bacterioplankton are a critical component of the carbon cycle, processing nearly a quarter of annual global primary production, yet defining how substrate utilization preferences and resource partitioning structure these microbial communities remains a challenge. In this study, we utilized proteomics-based stable isotope probing (proteomic SIP) to characterize the assimilation of amino acids by coastal marine bacterioplankton populations. We incubated microcosms of seawater collected from Newport, OR and Monterey Bay, CA with 1 M 13C-amino acids for 15 and 32 hours. Subsequent analysis of 13C incorporation into protein biomass quantified the frequency and extent of isotope enrichment for identifiedmore » proteins. Using these metrics we tested whether amino acid assimilation patterns were different for specific bacterioplankton populations. Proteins associated with Rhodobacterales and Alteromonadales tended to have a significantly high number of tandem mass spectra from 13C-enriched peptides, while Flavobacteriales and SAR11 proteins generally had significantly low numbers of 13C-enriched spectra. Rhodobacterales proteins associated with amino acid transport and metabolism had an increased frequency of 13C-enriched spectra at time-point 2, while Alteromonadales ribosomal proteins were 13C- enriched across time-points. Overall, proteomic SIP facilitated quantitative comparisons of dissolved free amino acids assimilation by specific taxa, both between sympatric populations and between protein functional groups within discrete populations, allowing an unprecedented examination of population-level metabolic responses to resource acquisition in complex microbial communities.« less

Population pharmacokinetics of rifampin in the treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Asian elephants.

PubMed

Egelund, E F; Isaza, R; Brock, A P; Alsultan, A; An, G; Peloquin, C A

2015-04-01

The objective of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for rifampin in elephants. Rifampin concentration data from three sources were pooled to provide a total of 233 oral concentrations from 37 Asian elephants. The population pharmacokinetic models were created using Monolix (version 4.2). Simulations were conducted using ModelRisk. We examined the influence of age, food, sex, and weight as model covariates. We further optimized the dosing of rifampin based upon simulations using the population pharmacokinetic model. Rifampin pharmacokinetics were best described by a one-compartment open model including first-order absorption with a lag time and first-order elimination. Body weight was a significant covariate for volume of distribution, and food intake was a significant covariate for lag time. The median Cmax of 6.07 μg/mL was below the target range of 8-24 μg/mL. Monte Carlo simulations predicted the highest treatable MIC of 0.25 μg/mL with the current initial dosing recommendation of 10 mg/kg, based upon a previously published target AUC0-24/MIC > 271 (fAUC > 41). Simulations from the population model indicate that the current dose of 10 mg/kg may be adequate for MICs up to 0.25 μg/mL. While the targeted AUC/MIC may be adequate for most MICs, the median Cmax for all elephants is below the human and elephant targeted ranges. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

High-risk population health management--achieving improved patient outcomes and near-term financial results.

PubMed

Lynch, J P; Forman, S A; Graff, S; Gunby, M C

2000-07-01

A managed care organization sought to achieve efficiencies in care delivery and cost savings by anticipating and better caring for its frail and least stable members. Time sequence case study of program intervention across an entire managed care population in its first year compared with the prior baseline year. Key attributes of the intervention included predictive registries of at-risk members based on existing data, relentless focus on the high-risk group, an integrated clinical and psychosocial approach to assessments and are planning, a reengineered care management process, secured Internet applications enabling rapid implementation and broad connectivity, and population-based outcomes metrics derived from widely used measures of resource utilization and functional status. Concentrating on the highest-risk group, which averaged just 1.1% prevalence in the total membership, yielded bottom line results. When the year before program implementation (July 1997 through June 1998) was compared with the subsequent year, the total population's annualized commercial admission rate was reduced 5.3%, and seniors' was reduced 3.0%. A claims-paid analysis exclusively of the highest-risk group revealed that their efficiencies and savings overwhelmingly contributed to the membershipwide effect. This subgroup's costs dropped 35.7% from preprogram levels of $2590 per member per month (excluding pharmaceuticals). During the same time, patient-derived cross-sectional functional status rose 12.5%. A sharply focused, Internet-deployed case management strategy achieved economic and functional status results on a population basis and produced systemwide savings in its first year of implementation.

Non-specific effect of measles vaccination on overall child mortality in an area of rural India with high vaccination coverage: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Kabir, Zubair; Long, Jean; Reddaiah, Vankadara P; Kevany, John; Kapoor, Suresh K

2003-01-01

To determine whether vaccination against measles in a population with sustained high vaccination coverage and relatively low child mortality reduces overall child mortality. In April and May 2000, a population-based, case-control study was conducted at Ballabgarh (an area in rural northern India). Eligible cases were 330 children born between 1 January 1991 and 31 December 1998 who died aged 12-59 months. A programme was used to match 320 controls for age, sex, family size, and area of residence from a birth cohort of 15 578 born during the same time period. The analysis used 318 matched pairs and suggested that children aged 12-59 months who did not receive measles vaccination in infancy were three times more likely to die than those vaccinated against measles. Children from lower caste households who were not vaccinated in infancy had the highest risk of mortality (odds ratio, 8.9). A 27% increase in child mortality was attributable to failure to vaccinate against measles in the study population. Measles vaccine seems to have a non-specific reducing effect on overall child mortality in this population. If true, children in lower castes may reap the greatest gains in survival. The findings should be interpreted with caution because the nutritional status of the children was not recorded and may be a residual confounder. "All-cause mortality" is a potentially useful epidemiological endpoint for future vaccine trials.

Novel hybrid GPU-CPU implementation of parallelized Monte Carlo parametric expectation maximization estimation method for population pharmacokinetic data analysis.

PubMed

Ng, C M

2013-10-01

The development of a population PK/PD model, an essential component for model-based drug development, is both time- and labor-intensive. A graphical-processing unit (GPU) computing technology has been proposed and used to accelerate many scientific computations. The objective of this study was to develop a hybrid GPU-CPU implementation of parallelized Monte Carlo parametric expectation maximization (MCPEM) estimation algorithm for population PK data analysis. A hybrid GPU-CPU implementation of the MCPEM algorithm (MCPEMGPU) and identical algorithm that is designed for the single CPU (MCPEMCPU) were developed using MATLAB in a single computer equipped with dual Xeon 6-Core E5690 CPU and a NVIDIA Tesla C2070 GPU parallel computing card that contained 448 stream processors. Two different PK models with rich/sparse sampling design schemes were used to simulate population data in assessing the performance of MCPEMCPU and MCPEMGPU. Results were analyzed by comparing the parameter estimation and model computation times. Speedup factor was used to assess the relative benefit of parallelized MCPEMGPU over MCPEMCPU in shortening model computation time. The MCPEMGPU consistently achieved shorter computation time than the MCPEMCPU and can offer more than 48-fold speedup using a single GPU card. The novel hybrid GPU-CPU implementation of parallelized MCPEM algorithm developed in this study holds a great promise in serving as the core for the next-generation of modeling software for population PK/PD analysis.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

2011-01-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

PubMed

Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

2011-08-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution.

A population approach to disease management: hepatitis C direct-acting antiviral use in a large health care system.

PubMed

Belperio, Pamela S; Backus, Lisa I; Ross, David; Neuhauser, Melinda M; Mole, Larry A

2014-06-01

The introduction of the first direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV), telaprevir and boceprevir, marked a unique event in which 2 disease-changing therapies received FDA approval at the same time. Comparative safety and effectiveness data in real-world populations upon which to make formulary decisions did not exist. To describe the implementation, measurement, and outcomes of an enduring population-based approach of surveillance of medication management for HCV. The foundation of the population approach to HCV medication management used by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) relied upon a basic framework of (a) providing data for effective regional and local management, (b) education and training, (c) real-time oversight and feedback from a higher organization level, and (d) prompt outcome sharing. These population-based processes spanned across the continuum of the direct-acting antiviral oversight process. We used the VA's HCV Clinical Case Registry-which includes pharmacy, laboratory, and diagnosis information for all HCV-infected veterans from all VA facilities-to assess DAA treatment eligibility, DAA uptake and timing, appropriate use of DAAs including HCV RNA monitoring and medication possession ratios (MPR), nonconcordance with guidance for adjunct erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (GCSF) use, hematologic adverse effects, discontinuation rates, and early and sustained virologic responses. Training impact was assessed via survey and change in pharmacist scope of practice. One year after FDA approval, DAAs had been prescribed at 120 of 130 VA facilities. Over 680 VA providers participated in live educational training programs including 380 pharmacists, and pharmacists with a scope of practice for HCV increased from 59 to 110 pharmacists (86%). HCV RNA futility testing improved such that only 1%-3% of veterans did not have appropriate testing compared with 15%-17% 6 months earlier. By facility, the median proportion of veterans with MPR ≥ 0.95 remained 80% for those prescribed boceprevir; for telaprevir, the median proportion was 75% and improved to 80% 6 months later. Nonconcordance with VA medication guidance was as follows: receipt of an ESA without dose reducing ribavirin, 30% boceprevir, 45% telaprevir; ESA initiated with a hemoglobin greater than 10 g/dL, 42% boceprevir, 25% telaprevir; receipt of GCSF with absolute neutrophil count above the criteria threshold, 84%. This clinically focused, comprehensive, population-based medication management approach affected real-time change in health services, practice, and outcomes evidenced by widespread and rapid DAA uptake, improved HCV RNA monitoring, attention to adherence, and more appropriate management of DAA-related anemia. Timely outcome sharing provided decision makers and clinicians evidence to support current HCV practices.

Effective Population Size, Genetic Variation, and Their Relevance for Conservation: The Bighorn Sheep in Tiburon Island and Comparisons with Managed Artiodactyls

PubMed Central

Gasca-Pineda, Jaime; Cassaigne, Ivonne; Alonso, Rogelio A.; Eguiarte, Luis E.

2013-01-01

The amount of genetic diversity in a finite biological population mostly depends on the interactions among evolutionary forces and the effective population size (N e) as well as the time since population establishment. Because the N e estimation helps to explore population demographic history, and allows one to predict the behavior of genetic diversity through time, N e is a key parameter for the genetic management of small and isolated populations. Here, we explored an N e-based approach using a bighorn sheep population on Tiburon Island, Mexico (TI) as a model. We estimated the current (N crnt) and ancestral stable (N stbl) inbreeding effective population sizes as well as summary statistics to assess genetic diversity and the demographic scenarios that could explain such diversity. Then, we evaluated the feasibility of using TI as a source population for reintroduction programs. We also included data from other bighorn sheep and artiodactyl populations in the analysis to compare their inbreeding effective size estimates. The TI population showed high levels of genetic diversity with respect to other managed populations. However, our analysis suggested that TI has been under a genetic bottleneck, indicating that using individuals from this population as the only source for reintroduction could lead to a severe genetic diversity reduction. Analyses of the published data did not show a strict correlation between H E and N crnt estimates. Moreover, we detected that ancient anthropogenic and climatic pressures affected all studied populations. We conclude that the estimation of N crnt and N stbl are informative genetic diversity estimators and should be used in addition to summary statistics for conservation and population management planning. PMID:24147115

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

PubMed Central

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

The longitudinal relationship between control over working hours and depressive symptoms: Results from SLOSH, a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Albrecht, Sophie C; Kecklund, Göran; Rajaleid, Kristiina; Leineweber, Constanze

2017-06-01

Psychosocial work factors can affect depressive moods, but research is inconclusive if flexibility to self-determine working hours (work-time control, WTC) is associated with depressive symptoms over time. We investigated if either sub-dimension of WTC, control over daily hours and control over time off, was related to depressive symptoms over time and examined causal, reversed-causal, and reciprocal pathways. The study was based on four waves of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health which is a follow-up of representative samples of the Swedish working population. WTC was measured using a 5-item index. Depressive symptoms were assessed with a brief subscale of the Symptom Checklist. Latent growth curve models and cross-lagged panel models were tested. Best fit was found for a model with correlated intercepts (control over daily hours) and both correlated intercepts and slopes (control over time off) between WTC and depressive symptoms, with stronger associations for control over time off. Causal models estimating impacts from WTC to subsequent depressive symptoms were best fitting, with a standardised coefficient between -0.023 and -0.048. Results were mainly based on self-report data and mean age in the study sample was relatively high. Higher WTC was related to fewer depressive symptoms over time albeit small effects. Giving workers control over working hours - especially over taking breaks and vacation - may improve working conditions and buffer against developing depression, potentially by enabling workers to recover more easily and promoting work-life balance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coalescent genealogy samplers: windows into population history

PubMed Central

Kuhner, Mary K.

2016-01-01

Coalescent genealogy samplers attempt to estimate past qualities of a population, such as its size, growth rate, patterns of gene flow or time of divergence from another population, based on samples of molecular data. Genealogy samplers are increasingly popular because of their potential to disentangle complex population histories. In the last decade they have been widely applied to systems ranging from humans to viruses. Findings include detection of unexpected reproductive inequality in fish, new estimates of historical whale abundance, exoneration of humans for the prehistoric decline of bison and inference of a selective sweep on the human Y chromosome. This review summarizes available genealogy-sampler software, including data requirements and limitations on the use of each program. PMID:19101058

Coalescent genealogy samplers: windows into population history.

PubMed

Kuhner, Mary K

2009-02-01

Coalescent genealogy samplers attempt to estimate past qualities of a population, such as its size, growth rate, patterns of gene flow or time of divergence from another population, based on samples of molecular data. Genealogy samplers are increasingly popular because of their potential to disentangle complex population histories. In the last decade they have been widely applied to systems ranging from humans to viruses. Findings include detection of unexpected reproductive inequality in fish, new estimates of historical whale abundance, exoneration of humans for the prehistoric decline of bison and inference of a selective sweep on the human Y chromosome. This review summarizes available genealogy-sampler software, including data requirements and limitations on the use of each program.

A Balanced Portfolio Model For Improving Health: Concept And Vermont's Experience.

PubMed

Hester, James

2018-04-01

A successful strategy for improving population health requires acting in several sectors by implementing a portfolio of interventions. The mix of interventions should be both tailored to meet the community's needs and balanced in several dimensions-for example, time frame, level of risk, and target population. One obstacle is finding sustainable financing for both the interventions and the community infrastructure needed. This article first summarizes Vermont's experience as a laboratory for health reform. It then presents a conceptual model for a community-based population health strategy, using a balanced portfolio and diversified funding approaches. The article then reviews Vermont's population health initiative, including an example of a balanced portfolio and lessons learned from the state's experience.

Anthropometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcconville, J. T.; Laubach, L. L.

1978-01-01

Data on body-size measurement are presented to aid in spacecraft design. Tabulated dimensional anthropometric data on 59 variables for 12 selected populations are given. The variables chosen were those judged most relevant to the manned space program. A glossary of anatomical and anthropometric terms is included. Selected body dimensions of males and females from the potential astronaut population projected to the 1980-1990 time frame are given. Illustrations of drawing-board manikins based on those anticipated body sizes are included.

Reproductive biology of Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar) (Diptera: Psychodidae) under experimental conditions.

PubMed

Cárdenas, E; Ferro, C; Corredor, D; Martínez, O; Munstermann, L E

1999-12-01

Baseline biological growth data of Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar) were compared under two experimental conditions within insulated styrofoam chests and in standard laboratory incubators. The developmental time from egg to adult was 67 and 52 days, respectively. Based on cohorts of 100 females in each experiment, horizontal life tables were constructed. The following predictive parameters were obtained under each of the two conditions: net rate of reproduction (23.5 and 18.0 females per cohort female), generation time (11.4 and 9.4 weeks), intrinsic rate of population increase (0.27 and 0.30), and finite rate of population increment (1.31 and 1.36). The reproductive value for each class age of the cohort females was calculated. The observed parameters were obtained under each experimental condition: net rate of reproduction (1.9 and 2.5 females per cohort female), generation time (11.7 and 9.6 weeks), intrinsic rate of population increase (0.05 and 0.09), and finite rate of population increment (1.06 and 1.10). Vertical life tables were elaborated and mortality was described for every generation in each cohort. In addition, for two successive generations, additive variance and heritability for fecundity were estimated.

Intestinal Escherichia coli colonization in a mallard duck population over four consecutive winter seasons.

PubMed

Rödiger, Stefan; Kramer, Toni; Frömmel, Ulrike; Weinreich, Jörg; Roggenbuck, Dirk; Guenther, Sebastian; Schaufler, Katharina; Schröder, Christian; Schierack, Peter

2015-09-01

We report the population structure and dynamics of one Escherichia coli population of wild mallard ducks in their natural environment over four winter seasons, following the characterization of 100 isolates each consecutive season. Macro-restriction analysis was used to define isolates variously as multi- or 1-year pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) types. Isolates were characterized genotypically based on virulence-associated genes (VAGs), phylogenetic markers, and phenotypically based on haemolytic activity, antimicrobial resistance, adhesion to epithelial cells, microcin production, motility and carbohydrate metabolism. Only 12 out of 220 PFGE types were detectable over more than one winter, and classified as multi-year PFGE types. There was a dramatic change of PFGE types within two winter seasons. Nevertheless, the genetic pool (VAGs) and antimicrobial resistance pattern remained remarkably stable. The high diversity and dynamics of this E. coli population were also demonstrated by the occurrence of PFGE subtypes and differences between isolates of one PFGE type (based on VAGs, antimicrobial resistance and adhesion rates). Multi- and 1-year PFGE types differed in antimicrobial resistance, VAGs and adhesion. Other parameters were not prominent colonization factors. In conclusion, the high diversity, dynamics and stable genetic pool of an E. coli population seem to enable their successful colonization of host animal population over time. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Generation-based life table analysis reveals manifold effects of inbreeding on the population fitness in Plutella xylostella

PubMed Central

Peng, Lu; Zou, Mingmin; Ren, Nana; Xie, Miao; Vasseur, Liette; Yang, Yifan; He, Weiyi; Yang, Guang; Gurr, Geoff M.; Hou, Youming; You, Shijun; You, Minsheng

2015-01-01

Understanding how inbreeding affects fitness is biologically important for conservation and pest management. Despite being a worldwide pest of many economically important cruciferous crops, the influence of inbreeding on diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), populations is currently unknown. Using age-stage-specific life tables, we quantified the inbreeding effects on fitness-related traits and demographic parameters of P. xylostella. Egg hatching rate, survival and fecundity of the inbred line significantly declined compared to those of the outbred line over time. The inbred P. xylostella line showed significantly lower intrinsic rate of increase (r), net reproduction rate (R0), and finite increase rate (λ), and increasing generation time (T). Inbreeding effects vary with developmental stages and the fitness-related traits can be profoundly affected by the duration of inbreeding. Our work provides a foundation for further studies on molecular and genetic bases of the inbreeding depression for P. xylostella. PMID:26227337

Sleep and use of electronic devices in adolescence: results from a large population-based study

PubMed Central

Hysing, Mari; Pallesen, Ståle; Stormark, Kjell Morten; Jakobsen, Reidar; Lundervold, Astri J; Sivertsen, Børge

2015-01-01

Objectives Adolescents spend increasingly more time on electronic devices, and sleep deficiency rising in adolescents constitutes a major public health concern. The aim of the present study was to investigate daytime screen use and use of electronic devices before bedtime in relation to sleep. Design A large cross-sectional population-based survey study from 2012, the youth@hordaland study, in Hordaland County in Norway. Setting Cross-sectional general community-based study. Participants 9846 adolescents from three age cohorts aged 16–19. The main independent variables were type and frequency of electronic devices at bedtime and hours of screen-time during leisure time. Outcomes Sleep variables calculated based on self-report including bedtime, rise time, time in bed, sleep duration, sleep onset latency and wake after sleep onset. Results Adolescents spent a large amount of time during the day and at bedtime using electronic devices. Daytime and bedtime use of electronic devices were both related to sleep measures, with an increased risk of short sleep duration, long sleep onset latency and increased sleep deficiency. A dose–response relationship emerged between sleep duration and use of electronic devices, exemplified by the association between PC use and risk of less than 5 h of sleep (OR=2.70, 95% CI 2.14 to 3.39), and comparable lower odds for 7–8 h of sleep (OR=1.64, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.96). Conclusions Use of electronic devices is frequent in adolescence, during the day as well as at bedtime. The results demonstrate a negative relation between use of technology and sleep, suggesting that recommendations on healthy media use could include restrictions on electronic devices. PMID:25643702

Measuring Total and Germinable Spore Populations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noell, A.C.; Yung, P.T.; Yang, W.; Lee, C.; Ponce, A.

2011-01-01

It has been shown that bacterial endospores can be enumerated using a microscopy based assay that images the luminescent halos from terbium ions bound to dipicolinic acid, a spore specific chemical marker released upon spore germination. Further development of the instrument has simplified it towards automation while at the same time improving image quality. Enumeration of total spore populations has also been developed allowing measurement of the percentage of viable spores in any population by comparing the germinable/culturable spores to the total. Percentage viability will allow a more quantitative comparison of the ability of spores to survive across a wide range of extreme environments.

Multiple Stellar Populations in Star Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piotto, G.

2013-09-01

For half a century it had been astronomical dogma that a globular cluster (GC) consists of stars born at the same time out of the same material, and this doctrine has borne rich fruits. In recent years, high resolution spectroscopy and high precision photometry (from space and ground-based observations) have shattered this paradigm, and the study of GC populations has acquired a new life that is now moving it in new directions. Evidence of multiple stellar populations have been identified in the color-magnitude diagrams of several Galactic and Magellanic Cloud GCs where they had never been imagined before.

Investigating population continuity with ancient DNA under a spatially explicit simulation framework.

PubMed

Silva, Nuno Miguel; Rio, Jeremy; Currat, Mathias

2017-12-15

Recent advances in sequencing technologies have allowed for the retrieval of ancient DNA data (aDNA) from skeletal remains, providing direct genetic snapshots from diverse periods of human prehistory. Comparing samples taken in the same region but at different times, hereafter called "serial samples", may indicate whether there is continuity in the peopling history of that area or whether an immigration of a genetically different population has occurred between the two sampling times. However, the exploration of genetic relationships between serial samples generally ignores their geographical locations and the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations. Here, we present a new coalescent-based, spatially explicit modelling approach to investigate population continuity using aDNA, which includes two fundamental elements neglected in previous methods: population structure and migration. The approach also considers the extensive temporal and geographical variance that is commonly found in aDNA population samples. We first showed that our spatially explicit approach is more conservative than the previous (panmictic) approach and should be preferred to test for population continuity, especially when small and isolated populations are considered. We then applied our method to two mitochondrial datasets from Germany and France, both including modern and ancient lineages dating from the early Neolithic. The results clearly reject population continuity for the maternal line over the last 7500 years for the German dataset but not for the French dataset, suggesting regional heterogeneity in post-Neolithic migratory processes. Here, we demonstrate the benefits of using a spatially explicit method when investigating population continuity with aDNA. It constitutes an improvement over panmictic methods by considering the spatiotemporal dynamics of genetic lineages and the precise location of ancient samples. The method can be used to investigate population continuity between any pair of serial samples (ancient-ancient or ancient-modern) and to investigate more complex evolutionary scenarios. Although we based our study on mitochondrial DNA sequences, diploid molecular markers of different types (DNA, SNP, STR) can also be simulated with our approach. It thus constitutes a promising tool for the analysis of the numerous aDNA datasets being produced, including genome wide data, in humans but also in many other species.

Innovations in medical care and mortality trends from four circulatory diseases between 1970 and 2005.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Rasmus; Plug, Iris; McKee, Martin; Khoshaba, Bernadette; Westerling, Ragnar; Looman, Caspar; Rey, Gregoire; Jougla, Eric; Luis Alfonso, Jose; Lang, Katrin; Pärna, Kersti; Mackenbach, Johan P

2013-10-01

Governments have identified innovation in pharmaceuticals and medical technology as a priority for health policy. Although the contribution of medical care to health has been studied extensively in clinical settings, much less is known about its contribution to population health. We examine how innovations in the management of four circulatory disorders have influenced trends in cause-specific mortality at the population level. Based on literature reviews, we selected six medical innovations with proven effectiveness against hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and cerebrovascular disease. We combined data on the timing of these innovations and cause-specific mortality trends (1970-2005) from seven European countries. We sought to identify associations between the introduction of innovations and favourable changes in mortality, using Joinpoint-models based on linear spline regression. For both ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, the timing of medical innovations was associated with improved mortality in four out of five countries and five out of seven countries, respectively, depending on the innovation. This suggests that innovation has impacted positively on mortality at the population level. For hypertension and heart failure, such associations could not be identified. Although improvements in cause-specific mortality coincide with the introduction of some innovations, this is not invariably true. This is likely to reflect the incremental effects of many interventions, the time taken for them to be adopted fully and the presence of contemporaneous changes in disease incidence. Research on the impact of medical innovations on population health is limited by unreliable data on their introduction.

Benchmarking an operational procedure for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Salamon, Peter; Kalas, Milan; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The development of real-time methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is crucial to improve emergency response and mitigate flood impacts. This work describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on the flood predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The daily forecasts produced for the major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, based on the hydro-meteorological dataset of EFAS. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in near real-time in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, affected population, infrastructures and cities. An extensive testing of the operational procedure is carried out using the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-derived flood footprints, while ground-based estimations of economic damage and affected population is compared against modelled estimates. We evaluated the skill of flood hazard and risk estimations derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations. The assessment includes a comparison of several alternative approaches to produce and present the information content, in order to meet the requests of EFAS users. The tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Combining a Job-Exposure Matrix with Exposure Measurements to Assess Occupational Exposure to Benzene in a Population Cohort in Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Friesen, Melissa C.; Coble, Joseph B.; Lu, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Portengen, Lutzen; Chow, Wong-Ho; Gao, Yu-Tang; Yang, Gong; Rothman, Nathaniel; Vermeulen, Roel

2012-01-01

Background: Generic job-exposure matrices (JEMs) are often used in population-based epidemiologic studies to assess occupational risk factors when only the job and industry information of each subject is available. JEM ratings are often based on professional judgment, are usually ordinal or semi-quantitative, and often do not account for changes in exposure over time. We present an empirical Bayesian framework that combines ordinal subjective JEM ratings with benzene measurements. Our aim was to better discriminate between job, industry, and time differences in exposure levels compared to using a JEM alone. Methods: We combined 63 221 short-term area air measurements of benzene exposure (1954–2000) collected during routine health and safety inspections in Shanghai, China, with independently developed JEM intensity ratings for each job and industry using a mixed-effects model. The fixed-effects terms included the JEM intensity ratings for job and industry (both ordinal, 0–3) and a time trend that we incorporated as a b-spline. The random-effects terms included job (n = 33) and industry nested within job (n = 399). We predicted the benzene concentration in two ways: (i) a calibrated JEM estimate was calculated using the fixed-effects model parameters for calendar year and JEM intensity ratings; (ii) a job-/industry-specific estimate was calculated using the fixed-effects model parameters and the best linear unbiased predictors from the random effects for job and industry using an empirical Bayes estimation procedure. Finally, we applied the predicted benzene exposures to a prospective population-based cohort of women in Shanghai, China (n = 74 942). Results: Exposure levels were 13 times higher in 1965 than in 2000 and declined at a rate that varied from 4 to 15% per year from 1965 to 1985, followed by a small peak in the mid-1990s. The job-/industry-specific estimates had greater differences between exposure levels than the calibrated JEM estimates (97.5th percentile/2.5th percentile exposure level, BGR95B: 20.4 versus 3.0, respectively). The calibrated JEM and job-/industry-specific estimates were moderately correlated in any given year (Pearson correlation, rp = 0.58). We classified only those jobs and industries with a job or industry JEM exposure probability rating of 3 (>50% of workers exposed) as exposed. As a result, 14.8% of the subjects and 8.7% of the employed person-years in the study population were classified as benzene exposed. The cumulative exposure metrics based on the calibrated JEM and job-/industry-specific estimates were highly correlated (rp = 0.88). Conclusions: We provide a useful framework for combining quantitative exposure data with expert-based exposure ratings in population-based studies that maximized the information from both sources. Our framework calibrated the ratings to a concentration scale between ratings and across time and provided a mechanism to estimate exposure when a job/industry group reported by a subject was not represented in the exposure database. It also allowed the job/industry groups’ exposure levels to deviate from the pooled average for their respective JEM intensity ratings. PMID:21976309

77 FR 19231 - Takes of Marine Mammals Incidental to Specified Activities; Navy Training Conducted at the Silver...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-30

... break, presence of glassy foam, and/or perhaps scattered whitecaps). Applicable mitigation zones are... California based on passive acoustic detection of two distinct echolocation click patterns. No population... 10 1,020 1,220 (2) ZOI and Swim Speed-Time-Buffer Addition Based on acoustic propagation modeling and...

A School-Based Movement Programme for Children with Motor Learning Difficulty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mannisto, Juha-Pekka; Cantell, Marja; Huovinen, Tommi; Kooistra, Libbe; Larkin, Dawne

2006-01-01

The study investigated the effectiveness of a school-based movement programme for a population of 5 to 7 year old children. Performance profiles on the Movement ABC were used to classify the children and to assess skill changes over time. Children were assigned to four different groups: motor learning difficulty (n = 10), borderline motor learning…

Affirming Children's Roots: Cultural and Linguistic Diversity in Early Care and Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Hedy Nai-Lin

This report documents for the first time the growing ethnic mix of center-based child care in California. Based on a survey of 434 centers in 5 California counties selected for their ethnic and geographic diversity and large child populations, the report presents several types of information. First, it documents the scope of the demographic…

Genetic variation in natural honeybee populations, Apis mellifera capensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hepburn, Randall; Neumann, Peter; Radloff, Sarah E.

2004-09-01

Genetic variation in honeybee, Apis mellifera, populations can be considerably influenced by breeding and commercial introductions, especially in areas with abundant beekeeping. However, in southern Africa apiculture is based on the capture of wild swarms, and queen rearing is virtually absent. Moreover, the introduction of European subspecies constantly failed in the Cape region. We therefore hypothesize a low human impact on genetic variation in populations of Cape honeybees, Apis mellifera capensis. A novel solution to studying genetic variation in honeybee populations based on thelytokous worker reproduction is applied to test this hypothesis. Environmental effects on metrical morphological characters of the phenotype are separated to obtain a genetic residual component. The genetic residuals are then re-calculated as coefficients of genetic variation. Characters measured included hair length on the abdomen, width and length of wax plate, and three wing angles. The data show for the first time that genetic variation in Cape honeybee populations is independent of beekeeping density and probably reflects naturally occurring processes such as gene flow due to topographic and climatic variation on a microscale.

Dengue fever spreading based on probabilistic cellular automata with two lattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, F. M. M.; Schimit, P. H. T.

2018-06-01

Modeling and simulation of mosquito-borne diseases have gained attention due to a growing incidence in tropical countries in the past few years. Here, we study the dengue spreading in a population modeled by cellular automata, where there are two lattices to model the human-mosquitointeraction: one lattice for human individuals, and one lattice for mosquitoes in order to enable different dynamics in populations. The disease considered is the dengue fever with one, two or three different serotypes coexisting in population. Although many regions exhibit the incidence of only one serotype, here we set a complete framework to also study the occurrence of two and three serotypes at the same time in a population. Furthermore, the flexibility of the model allows its use to other mosquito-borne diseases, like chikungunya, yellow fever and malaria. An approximation of the cellular automata is proposed in terms of ordinary differential equations; the spreading of mosquitoes is studied and the influence of some model parameters are analyzed with numerical simulations. Finally, a method to combat dengue spreading is simulated based on a reduction of mosquito birth and mosquito bites in population.

Predation and fragmentation portrayed in the statistical structure of prey time series

PubMed Central

Hendrichsen, Ditte K; Topping, Chris J; Forchhammer, Mads C

2009-01-01

Background Statistical autoregressive analyses of direct and delayed density dependence are widespread in ecological research. The models suggest that changes in ecological factors affecting density dependence, like predation and landscape heterogeneity are directly portrayed in the first and second order autoregressive parameters, and the models are therefore used to decipher complex biological patterns. However, independent tests of model predictions are complicated by the inherent variability of natural populations, where differences in landscape structure, climate or species composition prevent controlled repeated analyses. To circumvent this problem, we applied second-order autoregressive time series analyses to data generated by a realistic agent-based computer model. The model simulated life history decisions of individual field voles under controlled variations in predator pressure and landscape fragmentation. Analyses were made on three levels: comparisons between predated and non-predated populations, between populations exposed to different types of predators and between populations experiencing different degrees of habitat fragmentation. Results The results are unambiguous: Changes in landscape fragmentation and the numerical response of predators are clearly portrayed in the statistical time series structure as predicted by the autoregressive model. Populations without predators displayed significantly stronger negative direct density dependence than did those exposed to predators, where direct density dependence was only moderately negative. The effects of predation versus no predation had an even stronger effect on the delayed density dependence of the simulated prey populations. In non-predated prey populations, the coefficients of delayed density dependence were distinctly positive, whereas they were negative in predated populations. Similarly, increasing the degree of fragmentation of optimal habitat available to the prey was accompanied with a shift in the delayed density dependence, from strongly negative to gradually becoming less negative. Conclusion We conclude that statistical second-order autoregressive time series analyses are capable of deciphering interactions within and across trophic levels and their effect on direct and delayed density dependence. PMID:19419539

PSMC analysis of effective population sizes in molecular ecology and its application to black-and-white Ficedula flycatchers.

PubMed

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2016-03-01

Climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary period governed the demography of species and contributed to population differentiation and ultimately speciation. Studies of these past processes have previously been hindered by a lack of means and genetic data to model changes in effective population size (Ne ) through time. However, based on diploid genome sequences of high quality, the recently developed pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) can estimate trajectories of changes in Ne over considerable time periods. We applied this approach to resequencing data from nearly 200 genomes of four species and several populations of the Ficedula species complex of black-and-white flycatchers. Ne curves of Atlas, collared, pied and semicollared flycatcher converged 1-2 million years ago (Ma) at an Ne of ≈ 200 000, likely reflecting the time when all four species last shared a common ancestor. Subsequent separate Ne trajectories are consistent with lineage splitting and speciation. All species showed evidence of population growth up until 100-200 thousand years ago (kya), followed by decline and then start of a new phase of population expansion. However, timing and amplitude of changes in Ne differed among species, and for pied flycatcher, the temporal dynamics of Ne differed between Spanish birds and central/northern European populations. This cautions against extrapolation of demographic inference between lineages and calls for adequate sampling to provide representative pictures of the coalescence process in different species or populations. We also empirically evaluate criteria for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC and arrive at recommendations of using sequencing data with a mean genome coverage of ≥18X, a per-site filter of ≥10 reads and no more than 25% of missing data. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Research on ecological population capacity based on food and water in Shandong province].

PubMed

Lin, C

1991-02-01

The population carrying capacity in Shandong Province, China, based on current food production and water supply is discusses. In 1988, the staple food production exceeded the amount needed for the minimum subsistence level of 300 kg/person. But if the food supply were to be kept at 500 kilos/person, the amount considered to be abundant, the province had a surplus population of 16.11 million. Based on a population projection of medium scenario, the projected level of food production would meet the needs for adequate food consumption. But if the level of abundant supply were to be kept, there would be 12.4 million surplus population. The shortage of water supply is a more acute problem. On the basis of the current water consumption of 514 cubic m/person, the water supply of the province could only meet the needs of 44.9 million. But the population in the province was already 80.6 million in 1988. If the water consumption was 1000 cubic m/person, which was the consumption level of the Soviet Union, the supply can only meet the needs of 23 million population. Even if the potential water resources were fully developed, the supply can only meet the needs of 65.4 million people at the end of the century. The 92.5 million projected population at the time would far exceed the water supply capacity. The severe shortage of water supply of the province would be the most serious ecological problem. Such constraint may also have considerable impact on the sustained socioeconomic development of the province.

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostrom, Chris L.

2017-01-01

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostrom, C.

2017-01-01

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

2015-05-01

The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

Inferring individual-level processes from population-level patterns in cultural evolution

PubMed Central

Wilder, Bryan

2017-01-01

Our species is characterized by a great degree of cultural variation, both within and between populations. Understanding how group-level patterns of culture emerge from individual-level behaviour is a long-standing question in the biological and social sciences. We develop a simulation model capturing demographic and cultural dynamics relevant to human cultural evolution, focusing on the interface between population-level patterns and individual-level processes. The model tracks the distribution of variants of cultural traits across individuals in a population over time, conditioned on different pathways for the transmission of information between individuals. From these data, we obtain theoretical expectations for a range of statistics commonly used to capture population-level characteristics (e.g. the degree of cultural diversity). Consistent with previous theoretical work, our results show that the patterns observed at the level of groups are rooted in the interplay between the transmission pathways and the age structure of the population. We also explore whether, and under what conditions, the different pathways can be distinguished based on their group-level signatures, in an effort to establish theoretical limits to inference. Our results show that the temporal dynamic of cultural change over time retains a stronger signature than the cultural composition of the population at a specific point in time. Overall, the results suggest a shift in focus from identifying the one individual-level process that likely produced the observed data to excluding those that likely did not. We conclude by discussing the implications for empirical studies of human cultural evolution. PMID:28989786

Mapping the Risk of Snakebite in Sri Lanka - A National Survey with Geospatial Analysis

PubMed Central

Ediriweera, Dileepa Senajith; Kasturiratne, Anuradhani; Pathmeswaran, Arunasalam; Gunawardena, Nipul Kithsiri; Wijayawickrama, Buddhika Asiri; Jayamanne, Shaluka Francis; Isbister, Geoffrey Kennedy; Dawson, Andrew; Giorgi, Emanuele; Diggle, Peter John; Lalloo, David Griffith; de Silva, Hithanadura Janaka

2016-01-01

Background There is a paucity of robust epidemiological data on snakebite, and data available from hospitals and localized or time-limited surveys have major limitations. No study has investigated the incidence of snakebite across a whole country. We undertook a community-based national survey and model based geostatistics to determine incidence, envenoming, mortality and geographical pattern of snakebite in Sri Lanka. Methodology/Principal Findings The survey was designed to sample a population distributed equally among the nine provinces of the country. The number of data collection clusters was divided among districts in proportion to their population. Within districts clusters were randomly selected. Population based incidence of snakebite and significant envenoming were estimated. Model-based geostatistics was used to develop snakebite risk maps for Sri Lanka. 1118 of the total of 14022 GN divisions with a population of 165665 (0.8%of the country’s population) were surveyed. The crude overall community incidence of snakebite, envenoming and mortality were 398 (95% CI: 356–441), 151 (130–173) and 2.3 (0.2–4.4) per 100000 population, respectively. Risk maps showed wide variation in incidence within the country, and snakebite hotspots and cold spots were determined by considering the probability of exceeding the national incidence. Conclusions/Significance This study provides community based incidence rates of snakebite and envenoming for Sri Lanka. The within-country spatial variation of bites can inform healthcare decision making and highlights the limitations associated with estimates of incidence from hospital data or localized surveys. Our methods are replicable, and these models can be adapted to other geographic regions after re-estimating spatial covariance parameters for the particular region. PMID:27391023

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods

PubMed Central

Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate (λ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism’s life history type and the true values of λ. In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ. Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ. To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the rate, was the best approach. However, stage-structured models performed poorly in estimating generation time, regardless of the methods used for constructing the models. Based on the results, we recommend using an age-structured matrix population model or the Euler-Lotka equation for calculating λ and generation time when life table data are available. Then, these age-structured vital rates can be converted into a stage-structured model for further analyses. PMID:29085763

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami; Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate ( λ ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism's life history type and the true values of λ . In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ . Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ . To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the rate, was the best approach. However, stage-structured models performed poorly in estimating generation time, regardless of the methods used for constructing the models. Based on the results, we recommend using an age-structured matrix population model or the Euler-Lotka equation for calculating λ and generation time when life table data are available. Then, these age-structured vital rates can be converted into a stage-structured model for further analyses.

[Mortality of working age population in Russia and indusrial countries in Europe: trends of the last two decades].

PubMed

Izmerov, N F; Tikhonova, G I; Gorchakova, T Iu

2014-01-01

The purpose of the study was to carry out comparative analysis of the status and trends in mortality of male and female population of working age (15-59 (54) years) in Russia and the EU-27. Based on official Russian (Rosstat) data, on the global database of the World Health Organization's cause of death (The WHO Mortality Database, WHOMD) and databases The Human Mortality Database (HMD) of the sex-age composition of the population and the number of deaths from certain causes of death by age and sex standardized (direct method) mortality rates of working age population from selected causes of death for 1990 and 2011 in Russia and the average for the EU-27 were calculated. Analysis of trends in mortality of male and female population of working age in Russia over the past two decades shows that, despite the positive changes in during last six years, in 2011, age-standardized mortality rates remained above the 1990 level for most causes of death. During the same period in the EU-27 mortality in men (15-59 years) and women (15-54 years) increased from almost all causes ofdeath, which led to an even greatergap between Russia and developed countries on this indicator: standardized mortality rate of the male population of Russia in 1990 was higher than in the EU-27 by 2.1 times, and by 2011 the gap had increased to 3.5 times. The women in the 1990 had 1.5 times higher standardized mortality rates, and by 2011 the gap had increased to 2.7 times. Despite a steady decline in the mortality rates of working age population after 2005, its level in 2012 was still higher than the one of 1990 for both men and women, which led to a further increase in the gap between the age-standardized coefficients of mortality rate of working age population in Russia and the countries of European Community-27 (15-59 (54)). Faster reduction of mortality rate in the working age population will preserve Russian population and its labor potential.

The effects of sample size on population genomic analyses--implications for the tests of neutrality.

PubMed

Subramanian, Sankar

2016-02-20

One of the fundamental measures of molecular genetic variation is the Watterson's estimator (θ), which is based on the number of segregating sites. The estimation of θ is unbiased only under neutrality and constant population growth. It is well known that the estimation of θ is biased when these assumptions are violated. However, the effects of sample size in modulating the bias was not well appreciated. We examined this issue in detail based on large-scale exome data and robust simulations. Our investigation revealed that sample size appreciably influences θ estimation and this effect was much higher for constrained genomic regions than that of neutral regions. For instance, θ estimated for synonymous sites using 512 human exomes was 1.9 times higher than that obtained using 16 exomes. However, this difference was 2.5 times for the nonsynonymous sites of the same data. We observed a positive correlation between the rate of increase in θ estimates (with respect to the sample size) and the magnitude of selection pressure. For example, θ estimated for the nonsynonymous sites of highly constrained genes (dN/dS < 0.1) using 512 exomes was 3.6 times higher than that estimated using 16 exomes. In contrast this difference was only 2 times for the less constrained genes (dN/dS > 0.9). The results of this study reveal the extent of underestimation owing to small sample sizes and thus emphasize the importance of sample size in estimating a number of population genomic parameters. Our results have serious implications for neutrality tests such as Tajima D, Fu-Li D and those based on the McDonald and Kreitman test: Neutrality Index and the fraction of adaptive substitutions. For instance, use of 16 exomes produced 2.4 times higher proportion of adaptive substitutions compared to that obtained using 512 exomes (24% vs 10 %).

Convenience Sampling of Children Presenting to Hospital-Based Outpatient Clinics to Estimate Childhood Obesity Levels in Local Surroundings.

PubMed

Gilliland, Jason; Clark, Andrew F; Kobrzynski, Marta; Filler, Guido

2015-07-01

Childhood obesity is a critical public health matter associated with numerous pediatric comorbidities. Local-level data are required to monitor obesity and to help administer prevention efforts when and where they are most needed. We hypothesized that samples of children visiting hospital clinics could provide representative local population estimates of childhood obesity using data from 2007 to 2013. Such data might provide more accurate, timely, and cost-effective obesity estimates than national surveys. Results revealed that our hospital-based sample could not serve as a population surrogate. Further research is needed to confirm this finding.

Population Fisher information matrix and optimal design of discrete data responses in population pharmacodynamic experiments.

PubMed

Ogungbenro, Kayode; Aarons, Leon

2011-08-01

In the recent years, interest in the application of experimental design theory to population pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) experiments has increased. The aim is to improve the efficiency and the precision with which parameters are estimated during data analysis and sometimes to increase the power and reduce the sample size required for hypothesis testing. The population Fisher information matrix (PFIM) has been described for uniresponse and multiresponse population PK experiments for design evaluation and optimisation. Despite these developments and availability of tools for optimal design of population PK and PD experiments much of the effort has been focused on repeated continuous variable measurements with less work being done on repeated discrete type measurements. Discrete data arise mainly in PDs e.g. ordinal, nominal, dichotomous or count measurements. This paper implements expressions for the PFIM for repeated ordinal, dichotomous and count measurements based on analysis by a mixed-effects modelling technique. Three simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the expressions. Example 1 is based on repeated dichotomous measurements, Example 2 is based on repeated count measurements and Example 3 is based on repeated ordinal measurements. Data simulated in MATLAB were analysed using NONMEM (Laplace method) and the glmmML package in R (Laplace and adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature methods). The results obtained for Examples 1 and 2 showed good agreement between the relative standard errors obtained using the PFIM and simulations. The results obtained for Example 3 showed the importance of sampling at the most informative time points. Implementation of these expressions will provide the opportunity for efficient design of population PD experiments that involve discrete type data through design evaluation and optimisation.

Drought, epidemic disease, and the fall of classic period cultures in Mesoamerica (AD 750-950). Hemorrhagic fevers as a cause of massive population loss.

PubMed

Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo; Stahle, David W; Therrell, Matthew D; Gomez Chavez, Sergio; Cleaveland, Malcolm K

2005-01-01

The classical period in Mexico (AD 250-750) was an era of splendor. The city of Teotihuacan was one of the largest and most sophisticated human conglomerates of the pre-industrial world. The Mayan civilization in southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan peninsula reached an impressive degree of development at the same time. This time of prosperity came to an end during the Terminal Classic Period (AD 750-950) a time of massive population loss throughout Mesoamerica. A second episode of massive depopulation in the same area was experienced during the sixteenth century when, in less than one century, between 80% and 90% of the entire indigenous population was lost. The 16th century depopulation of Mexico constitutes one of the worst demographic catastrophes in human history. Although newly imported European and African diseases caused high mortality among the native population, the major 16th century population losses were caused by a series of epidemics of a hemorrhagic fever called Cocoliztli, a highly lethal disease unknown to both Aztec and European physicians during the colonial era. The cocoliztli epidemics occurred during the 16th century megadrought, when severe drought extended at times from central Mexico to the boreal forest of Canada, and from the Pacific to the Atlantic coast. The collapse of the cultures of the Classic Period seems also to have occurred during a time of severe drought. Tree ring and lake sediment records indicate that some of the most severe and prolonged droughts to impact North America-Mesoamerica in the past 1000-4000 years occurred between AD 650 and 1000, particularly during the 8th and 9th centuries, a period of time that coincides with the Terminal Classic Period. Based on the similarities of the climatic (severe drought) and demographic (massive population loss) events in Mesoamerica during the sixteenth century, we propose that drought-associated epidemics of hemorrhagic fever may have contributed to the massive population loss during the Terminal Classic Period.

Effect of leisure time physical activity on severe knee or hip osteoarthritis leading to total joint replacement: a population-based prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Studies on leisure time physical activity as risk factor or protective factor for knee or hip osteoarthritis (OA) show divergent results. Longitudinal prospective studies are needed to clarify the association of physical activity with future OA. The aim was to explore in a prospective population-based cohort study the influence of leisure time physical activity on severe knee or hip OA, defined as knee or hip replacement due to OA. Methods Leisure time physical activity was reported by 28320 participants (mean age 58 years (SD 7.6), 60% women) at baseline. An overall leisure time physical activity score, taking both duration and intensity of physical activities into account, was created. The most commonly reported activities were also used for analysis. The incidence of knee or hip replacement due to OA over 11 years was monitored by linkage with the Swedish hospital discharge register. Cox’s proportional hazards model (crude and adjusted for potential confounding factors) was used to assess the incidence of total joint replacement, or osteotomy (knee), in separate analyses of leisure time physical activity. Results There was no significant overall association between leisure time physical activity and risk for knee or hip replacement due to OA over the 11-year observation time. For women only, the adjusted RR (95% CI) for hip replacement was 0.66 (0.48, 0.89) (fourth vs. first quartile), indicating a lower risk of hip replacement in those with the highest compared with the lowest physical activity. The most commonly reported activities were walking, bicycling, using stairs, and gardening. Walking was associated with a lower risk of hip replacement (adjusted RR 0.76 (95% CI 0.61, 0.94), specifically for women (adjusted RR 0.75 (95% CI 0.57, 0.98)). Conclusions In this population-based study of middle-aged men and women, leisure time physical activity showed no consistent overall relationship with incidence of severe knee or hip OA, defined as joint replacement due to OA, over 11 years. For women, higher leisure time physical activity may have a protective role for the incidence of hip replacement. Walking may have a protective role for hip replacement, specifically for women. PMID:22595023

Rapid and Near Real-Time Assessments of Population Displacement Using Mobile Phone Data Following Disasters: The 2015 Nepal Earthquake.

PubMed

Wilson, Robin; Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth; Albert, Maximilian; Power, Daniel; Tudge, Simon; Gonzalez, Miguel; Guthrie, Sam; Chamberlain, Heather; Brooks, Christopher; Hughes, Christopher; Pitonakova, Lenka; Buckee, Caroline; Lu, Xin; Wetter, Erik; Tatem, Andrew; Bengtsson, Linus

2016-02-24

Sudden impact disasters often result in the displacement of large numbers of people. These movements can occur prior to events, due to early warning messages, or take place post-event due to damages to shelters and livelihoods as well as a result of long-term reconstruction efforts. Displaced populations are especially vulnerable and often in need of support. However, timely and accurate data on the numbers and destinations of displaced populations are extremely challenging to collect across temporal and spatial scales, especially in the aftermath of disasters. Mobile phone call detail records were shown to be a valid data source for estimates of population movements after the 2010 Haiti earthquake, but their potential to provide near real-time ongoing measurements of population displacements immediately after a natural disaster has not been demonstrated. A computational architecture and analytical capacity were rapidly deployed within nine days of the Nepal earthquake of 25th April 2015, to provide spatiotemporally detailed estimates of population displacements from call detail records based on movements of 12 million de-identified mobile phones users. Analysis shows the evolution of population mobility patterns after the earthquake and the patterns of return to affected areas, at a high level of detail. Particularly notable is the movement of an estimated 390,000 people above normal from the Kathmandu valley after the earthquake, with most people moving to surrounding areas and the highly-populated areas in the central southern area of Nepal. This analysis provides an unprecedented level of information about human movement after a natural disaster, provided within a very short timeframe after the earthquake occurred. The patterns revealed using this method are almost impossible to find through other methods, and are of great interest to humanitarian agencies.

Observational studies of patients in the emergency department: a comparison of 4 sampling methods.

PubMed

Valley, Morgan A; Heard, Kennon J; Ginde, Adit A; Lezotte, Dennis C; Lowenstein, Steven R

2012-08-01

We evaluate the ability of 4 sampling methods to generate representative samples of the emergency department (ED) population. We analyzed the electronic records of 21,662 consecutive patient visits at an urban, academic ED. From this population, we simulated different models of study recruitment in the ED by using 2 sample sizes (n=200 and n=400) and 4 sampling methods: true random, random 4-hour time blocks by exact sample size, random 4-hour time blocks by a predetermined number of blocks, and convenience or "business hours." For each method and sample size, we obtained 1,000 samples from the population. Using χ(2) tests, we measured the number of statistically significant differences between the sample and the population for 8 variables (age, sex, race/ethnicity, language, triage acuity, arrival mode, disposition, and payer source). Then, for each variable, method, and sample size, we compared the proportion of the 1,000 samples that differed from the overall ED population to the expected proportion (5%). Only the true random samples represented the population with respect to sex, race/ethnicity, triage acuity, mode of arrival, language, and payer source in at least 95% of the samples. Patient samples obtained using random 4-hour time blocks and business hours sampling systematically differed from the overall ED patient population for several important demographic and clinical variables. However, the magnitude of these differences was not large. Common sampling strategies selected for ED-based studies may affect parameter estimates for several representative population variables. However, the potential for bias for these variables appears small. Copyright © 2012. Published by Mosby, Inc.

Dog ownership and all-cause mortality in a population cohort in Norway: The HUNT study.

PubMed

Torske, Magnhild Oust; Krokstad, Steinar; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Bauman, Adrian

2017-01-01

There has been increased interest in human-animal interactions and their possible effects on human health. Some of this research has focused on human physical activity levels, mediated through increased dog walking. Much of the reported research has been cross sectional, and very few epidemiological studies have examined the association between dog ownership and mortality in populations. We used data from the Norwegian county population-based Nord-Trøndelag HUNT Study (HUNT2, 1995-1997). Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to analyse the relationship between dog ownership and all-cause mortality. The median follow-up time was 18.5 years and the maximum follow-up time was 19.7 years. In this population, dog owners were no more physically active than non-dog owners, both groups reporting a total of just over 3 hours/week of light and vigorous activity. Dog owners (n = 25,031, with 1,587 deaths during follow-up; 504,017 person-years of time at risk) had virtually the same hazard of dying as non-dog owners (Hazard ratio 1.00, 95% CI 0.91-1.09). We found no evidence for an association between the presence of a dog in the household and all-cause mortality or physical activity levels in this Norwegian population. Further epidemiological research is needed to clarify this relationship, as methodological limitations and an active Norwegian population sample means that generalizable evidence is not yet clear on dog ownership and mortality.

Isochrones as Indicators of the Influence of Traffic in Public Health: A Visual Simulation Application in Ávila, Spain

PubMed Central

Otamendi, F. Javier; García-Heredia, David

2015-01-01

It is well known that excessive rescue times after traffic accidents negatively affect the health of those injured. There is a need to quantitatively measure the impact of unexpected events like ambulance availability, weather, floating population and congestion in those rescue times. A family of indicators based on isochrones is disguised and proposed to understand the risk of the whole population as the probability of not being assisted on time. Indicators of health risk for local towns are also defined. The indicators are calculated using a simulation model and visualized in web format. The framework of analysis is validated using Ávila (Spain) and the problem of the optimal deployment of ambulances as a test-bench. PMID:26473894

Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

2017-01-01

Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist for many plant species. Modelers should exploit these data to predict the impacts of environmental change.

Spatial Estimation of Populations at Risk from Radiological Dispersion Device Terrorism Incidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Regens, J.L.; Gunter, J.T.

2008-07-01

Delineation of the location and size of the population potentially at risk of exposure to ionizing radiation is one of the key analytical challenges in estimating accurately the severity of the potential health effects associated with a radiological terrorism incident. Regardless of spatial scale, the geographical units for which population data commonly are collected rarely coincide with the geographical scale necessary for effective incident management and medical response. This paper identifies major government and commercial open sources of U.S. population data and presents a GIS-based approach for allocating publicly available population data, including age distributions, to geographical units appropriate formore » planning and implementing incident management and medical response strategies. In summary: The gravity model offers a straight-forward, empirical tool for estimating population flows, especially when geographical areas are relatively well-defined in terms of accessibility and spatial separation. This is particularly important for several reasons. First, the spatial scale for the area impacted by a RDD terrorism event is unlikely to match fully the spatial scale of available population data. That is, the plume spread typically will not uniformly overlay the impacted area. Second, the number of people within the impacted area varies as a function whether an attack occurs during the day or night. For example, the population of a central business district or industrial area typically is larger during the day while predominately residential areas have larger night time populations. As a result, interpolation techniques that link population data to geographical units and allocate those data based on time-frame at a spatial scale that is relevant to enhancing preparedness and response. The gravity model's main advantage is that it efficiently allocates readily available, open source population data to geographical units appropriate for planning and implementing incident management and medical monitoring strategies. The importance of being able to link population estimates to geographic areas during the course of an RDD incident can be understood intuitively: - The spatial distribution of actual total dose equivalents of ionizing radiation is likely to vary due to changes in meteorological parameters as an event evolves over time; - The size of the geographical area affected also is likely to vary as a function of the actual release scenario; - The ability to identify the location and size of the populations that may be exposed to doses of ionizing radiation is critical to carrying out appropriate treatment and post-event medical monitoring; - Once a spatial interaction model has been validated for a city or a region, it can then be used for simulation and prediction purposes to assess the possible human health consequences of different release scenarios. (authors)« less

Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

PubMed

Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

2015-12-01

The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a developing country like India. A steady increase in AARs in most of the registries of India including the newly established registries is indicative of the fact that cancer breast poses a threat to women in India.

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

Marston, M; Slaymaker, E; Cremin, I; Floyd, S; McGrath, N; Kasamba, I; Lutalo, T; Nyirenda, M; Ndyanabo, A; Mupambireyi, Z; Zaba, B

2009-04-01

To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies. Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time. Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17-19 years for men and 16-19 years for women, AFM 21-24 years and 18-19 years, respectively, for the 1970-9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4-7 years for men and 0-2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time. Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations.

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Marston, M; Slaymaker, E; Cremin, I; Floyd, S; McGrath, N; Kasamba, I; Lutalo, T; Nyirenda, M; Ndyanabo, A; Mupambireyi, Z; Żaba, B

2009-01-01

Objectives: To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies. Methods: Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time. Results: Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17–19 years for men and 16–19 years for women, AFM 21–24 years and 18–19 years, respectively, for the 1970–9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4–7 years for men and 0–2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time. Conclusions: Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations. PMID:19307343

Variability in State-Based Recommendations for Management of Alpha Thalassemia Trait and Silent Carrier Detected on the Newborn Screen.

PubMed

Fogel, Benjamin N; Nguyen, Hong Loan T; Smink, Gayle; Sekhar, Deepa L

2018-04-01

We conducted an inventory of state-based recommendations for follow-up of alpha thalassemia silent carrier and trait identified on newborn screen. We found wide variability in the nature and timing of these recommendations. We recommend a standardized recommendation to guide pediatricians in evidenced-based care for this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model Methods The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years). Results The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2); this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. Conclusions Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades. PMID:21214916

Field-based high throughput phenotyping rapidly identifies genomic regions controlling yield components in rice

DOE PAGES

Tanger, Paul; Klassen, Stephen; Mojica, Julius P.; ...

2017-02-21

In order to ensure food security in the face of population growth, decreasing water and land for agriculture, and increasing climate variability, crop yields must increase faster than the current rates. Increased yields will require implementing novel approaches in genetic discovery and breeding. We demonstrate the potential of field-based high throughput phenotyping (HTP) on a large recombinant population of rice to identify genetic variation underlying important traits. We find that detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) with HTP phenotyping is as accurate and effective as traditional labor- intensive measures of flowering time, height, biomass, grain yield, and harvest index. Furthermore, geneticmore » mapping in this population, derived from a cross of an modern cultivar (IR64) with a landrace (Aswina), identified four alleles with negative effect on grain yield that are fixed in IR64, demonstrating the potential for HTP of large populations as a strategy for the second green revolution.« less

Field-based high throughput phenotyping rapidly identifies genomic regions controlling yield components in rice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tanger, Paul; Klassen, Stephen; Mojica, Julius P.

In order to ensure food security in the face of population growth, decreasing water and land for agriculture, and increasing climate variability, crop yields must increase faster than the current rates. Increased yields will require implementing novel approaches in genetic discovery and breeding. We demonstrate the potential of field-based high throughput phenotyping (HTP) on a large recombinant population of rice to identify genetic variation underlying important traits. We find that detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) with HTP phenotyping is as accurate and effective as traditional labor- intensive measures of flowering time, height, biomass, grain yield, and harvest index. Furthermore, geneticmore » mapping in this population, derived from a cross of an modern cultivar (IR64) with a landrace (Aswina), identified four alleles with negative effect on grain yield that are fixed in IR64, demonstrating the potential for HTP of large populations as a strategy for the second green revolution.« less

Validation of cross-sectional time series and multivariate adaptive regression splines models for the prediction of energy expenditure in children and adolescents using doubly labeled water

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate, nonintrusive, and inexpensive techniques are needed to measure energy expenditure (EE) in free-living populations. Our primary aim in this study was to validate cross-sectional time series (CSTS) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models based on observable participant cha...

Population-based estimate of trauma-related deaths for law enforcement personnel: Risks for death are higher and increasing over time.

PubMed

Eastman, Alexander L; Cripps, Michael W; Abdelfattah, Kareem R; Inaba, Kenji; Weiser, Thomas G; Spain, David A; Staudenmayer, Kristan L

2017-08-01

Trauma-related deaths remain an important public health problem. One group susceptible to death due to traumatic mechanisms is US law enforcement (LE). We hypothesized that LE officers experienced a higher chance of violent death compared with the general US population and that risks have increased over time. The National Institute on Occupational Safety and Health National Occupational Mortality Surveillance is a population-based survey of occupational deaths. It includes data for workers who died during 1985 to 1998 in one of 30 US states (EARLY period). Additional deaths were added from 23 US states in 1999, 2003 to 2004, 2007 to 2010 (LATE period). Mortality rates are estimated by calculating proportionate mortality ratios (PMR). A PMR above 100 is considered to exceed the average background risk for all occupations. All adults older than 18 years whose primary occupation was listed as "law enforcement worker" were included in the analysis. Law enforcement personnel were more likely to die from an injury compared with the general population (Fig. 1). The overall PMR for injury in EARLY was 111 (95% confidence interval [CI], 108-114; p < 0.01), and for LATE was 118 (95% CI, 110-127; p < 0.01). Four mechanisms of death reached statistical significance: motor vehicle traffic (MVT)-driver, MVT-other, intentional self-harm, and assault/homicide. The highest PMR in EARLY was associated with firearms (PMR, 272; 95% CI, 207-350; p < 0.01). The highest PMR in LATE was associated with death due to being a driver in an MVT (PMR, 194; 95% CI, 169-222; p < 0.01). There were differences in risk of death by race and sex. White females had the highest PMR due to assault and homicide (PMR, 317; 95% CI, 164-554; p < 0.01). All groups had similar risks of death due to intentional self-harm (PMR, 130-171). The risk of death for US LE officers is high and increasing over time, suggesting an at-risk population that requires further interventions. Targeted efforts based on risk factors, such as sex and race, may assist with the development of prevention programs for this population. Epidemiologic study, level II.

Healthcare costs in chronic kidney disease and renal replacement therapy: a population-based cohort study in Sweden.

PubMed

Eriksson, Jonas K; Neovius, Martin; Jacobson, Stefan H; Elinder, Carl-Gustaf; Hylander, Britta

2016-10-07

To compare healthcare costs in chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 4 or 5 not on dialysis (estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73m 2 ), peritoneal dialysis, haemodialysis and in transplanted patients with matched general population comparators. Population-based cohort study. Swedish national healthcare system. Prevalent adult patients with CKD 4 or 5 (n=1046, mean age 68 years), on peritoneal dialysis (n=101; 64 years), on haemodialysis (n=460; 65 years) and with renal transplants (n=825; 52 years) were identified in Stockholm County clinical quality registers for renal disease on 1 January 2010. 5 general population comparators from the same county were matched to each patient by age, sex and index year. Annual healthcare costs in 2009 incurred through inpatient and hospital-based outpatient care and dispensed prescription drugs ascertained from nationwide healthcare registers. Secondary outcomes were annual number of hospital days and outpatient care visits. Patients on haemodialysis had the highest mean annual cost (€87 600), which was 1.49 (95% CI 1.38 to 1.60) times that observed in peritoneal dialysis (€58 600). The mean annual cost was considerably lower in transplanted patients (€15 500) and in the CKD group (€9600). In patients on haemodialysis, outpatient care costs made up more than two-thirds (€62 500) of the total, while costs related to fluids ($29 900) was the largest cost component in patients on peritoneal dialysis (51%). Compared with their matched general population comparators, the mean annual cost (95% CI) in patients on haemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, transplanted patients and patients with CKD was 45 (39 to 51), 29 (22 to 37), 11 (10 to 13) and 4.0 (3.6 to 4.5) times higher, respectively. The mean annual costs were ∼50% higher in patients on haemodialysis than in those on peritoneal dialysis. Compared with the general population, costs were substantially elevated in all groups, from 4-fold in patients with CKD to 11, 29 and 45 times higher in transplanted patients and patients on peritoneal dialysis and haemodialysis, respectively. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

PubMed

Scotson, Lorraine; Fredriksson, Gabriella; Ngoprasert, Dusit; Wong, Wai-Ming; Fieberg, John

2017-01-01

Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei) were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%). Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement) to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that all assumptions be clearly stated.

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Invasive Group A Streptococcal Infection in Older Adults in Long-term Care Facilities and the Community, United States, 1998–20031

PubMed Central

Richards, Chesley L.; Lynfield, Ruth; Barrett, Nancy L.; Harrison, Lee H.; Arnold, Kathryn E.; Reingold, Arthur; Bennett, Nancy M.; Craig, Allen S.; Gershman, Ken; Cieslak, Paul R.; Lewis, Paige; Greene, Carolyn M.; Beall, Bernard; Van Beneden, Chris A.

2007-01-01

Limited information exists on the incidence and characteristics of invasive group A streptococcal (GAS) infections among residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs). We reviewed cases of invasive GAS infections occurring among persons >65 years of age identified through active, population-based surveillance from 1998 through 2003. We identified 1,762 invasive GAS cases among persons >65 years, including 1,662 with known residence type (LTCF or community). Incidence of invasive GAS infection among LTCF residents compared to community-based elderly was 41.0 versus 6.9 cases per 100,000 population. LTCF case-patients were 1.5 times as likely to die from the infection as community-based case-patients (33% vs. 21%, p<0.01) but were less often hospitalized (90% vs. 95%, p<0.01). In multivariate logistic regression modeling, LTCF residence remained an independent predictor of death. Additional prevention strategies against GAS infection in this high-risk population are urgently needed. PMID:18258035

Assessing Coverage of Population-Based and Targeted Fortification Programs with the Use of the Fortification Assessment Coverage Toolkit (FACT): Background, Toolkit Development, and Supplement Overview.

PubMed

Friesen, Valerie M; Aaron, Grant J; Myatt, Mark; Neufeld, Lynnette M

2017-05-01

Food fortification is a widely used approach to increase micronutrient intake in the diet. High coverage is essential for achieving impact. Data on coverage is limited in many countries, and tools to assess coverage of fortification programs have not been standardized. In 2013, the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition developed the Fortification Assessment Coverage Toolkit (FACT) to carry out coverage assessments in both population-based (i.e., staple foods and/or condiments) and targeted (e.g., infant and young child) fortification programs. The toolkit was designed to generate evidence on program coverage and the use of fortified foods to provide timely and programmatically relevant information for decision making. This supplement presents results from FACT surveys that assessed the coverage of population-based and targeted food fortification programs across 14 countries. It then discusses the policy and program implications of the findings for the potential for impact and program improvement.

Evolutionary game theory using agent-based methods.

PubMed

Adami, Christoph; Schossau, Jory; Hintze, Arend

2016-12-01

Evolutionary game theory is a successful mathematical framework geared towards understanding the selective pressures that affect the evolution of the strategies of agents engaged in interactions with potential conflicts. While a mathematical treatment of the costs and benefits of decisions can predict the optimal strategy in simple settings, more realistic settings such as finite populations, non-vanishing mutations rates, stochastic decisions, communication between agents, and spatial interactions, require agent-based methods where each agent is modeled as an individual, carries its own genes that determine its decisions, and where the evolutionary outcome can only be ascertained by evolving the population of agents forward in time. While highlighting standard mathematical results, we compare those to agent-based methods that can go beyond the limitations of equations and simulate the complexity of heterogeneous populations and an ever-changing set of interactors. We conclude that agent-based methods can predict evolutionary outcomes where purely mathematical treatments cannot tread (for example in the weak selection-strong mutation limit), but that mathematics is crucial to validate the computational simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Frequency of eating home cooked meals and potential benefits for diet and health: cross-sectional analysis of a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Mills, Susanna; Brown, Heather; Wrieden, Wendy; White, Martin; Adams, Jean

2017-08-17

Reported associations between preparing and eating home cooked food, and both diet and health, are inconsistent. Most previous research has focused on preparing, rather than eating, home cooked food; used small, non-population based samples; and studied markers of nutrient intake, rather than overall diet quality or health. We aimed to assess whether frequency of consuming home cooked meals was cross-sectionally associated with diet quality and cardio-metabolic health. We used baseline data from a United Kingdom population-based cohort study of adults aged 29 to 64 years (n = 11,396). Participants self-reported frequency of consuming home cooked main meals. Diet quality was assessed using the Mediterranean Diet Score, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) score, fruit and vegetable intake calculated from a 130-item food frequency questionnaire, and plasma vitamin C. Markers of cardio-metabolic health were researcher-measured body mass index (BMI), percentage body fat, haemoglobin A 1c (HbA 1c ), cholesterol and hypertension. Differences across the three exposure categories were assessed using linear regression (diet variables) and logistic regression (health variables). Eating home cooked meals more frequently was associated with greater adherence to DASH and Mediterranean diets, greater fruit and vegetable intakes and higher plasma vitamin C, in adjusted models. Those eating home cooked meals more than five times, compared with less than three times per week, consumed 62.3 g more fruit (99% CI 43.2 to 81.5) and 97.8 g more vegetables (99% CI 84.4 to 111.2) daily. More frequent consumption of home cooked meals was associated with greater likelihood of having normal range BMI and normal percentage body fat. Associations with HbA 1c , cholesterol and hypertension were not significant in adjusted models. Those consuming home cooked meals more than five times, compared with less than three times per week, were 28% less likely to have overweight BMI (99% CI 8 to 43%), and 24% less likely to have excess percentage body fat (99% CI 5 to 40%). In a large population-based cohort study, eating home cooked meals more frequently was associated with better dietary quality and lower adiposity. Further prospective research is required to identify whether consumption of home cooked meals has causal effects on diet and health.

A management-oriented framework for selecting metrics used to assess habitat- and path-specific quality in spatially structured populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicol, Sam; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Diffendorfer, James E.; Mattsson, Brady; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Semmens, Darius J.; Laura Lopez-Hoffman,; Norris, Ryan

2016-01-01

Mobile species with complex spatial dynamics can be difficult to manage because their population distributions vary across space and time, and because the consequences of managing particular habitats are uncertain when evaluated at the level of the entire population. Metrics to assess the importance of habitats and pathways connecting habitats in a network are necessary to guide a variety of management decisions. Given the many metrics developed for spatially structured models, it can be challenging to select the most appropriate one for a particular decision. To guide the management of spatially structured populations, we define three classes of metrics describing habitat and pathway quality based on their data requirements (graph-based, occupancy-based, and demographic-based metrics) and synopsize the ecological literature relating to these classes. Applying the first steps of a formal decision-making approach (problem framing, objectives, and management actions), we assess the utility of metrics for particular types of management decisions. Our framework can help managers with problem framing, choosing metrics of habitat and pathway quality, and to elucidate the data needs for a particular metric. Our goal is to help managers to narrow the range of suitable metrics for a management project, and aid in decision-making to make the best use of limited resources.

Developing Theoretically Based and Culturally Appropriate Interventions to Promote Hepatitis B Testing in 4 Asian American Populations, 2006–2011

PubMed Central

Bastani, Roshan; Glenn, Beth A.; Taylor, Victoria M.; Nguyen, Tung T.; Stewart, Susan L.; Burke, Nancy J.; Chen, Moon S.

2014-01-01

Introduction Hepatitis B infection is 5 to 12 times more common among Asian Americans than in the general US population and is the leading cause of liver disease and liver cancer among Asians. The purpose of this article is to describe the step-by-step approach that we followed in community-based participatory research projects in 4 Asian American groups, conducted from 2006 through 2011 in California and Washington state to develop theoretically based and culturally appropriate interventions to promote hepatitis B testing. We provide examples to illustrate how intervention messages addressing identical theoretical constructs of the Health Behavior Framework were modified to be culturally appropriate for each community. Methods Intervention approaches included mass media in the Vietnamese community, small-group educational sessions at churches in the Korean community, and home visits by lay health workers in the Hmong and Cambodian communities. Results Use of the Health Behavior Framework allowed a systematic approach to intervention development across populations, resulting in 4 different culturally appropriate interventions that addressed the same set of theoretical constructs. Conclusions The development of theory-based health promotion interventions for different populations will advance our understanding of which constructs are critical to modify specific health behaviors. PMID:24784908

SNPs and Haplotypes in Native American Populations

PubMed Central

Kidd, Judith R.; Friedlaender, Françoise; Pakstis, Andrew J.; Furtado, Manohar; Fang, Rixun; Wang, Xudong; Nievergelt, Caroline M.; Kidd, Kenneth K.

2013-01-01

Autosomal DNA polymorphisms can provide new information and understanding of both the origins of and relationships among modern Native American populations. At the same time that autosomal markers can be highly informative, they are also susceptible to ascertainment biases in the selection of the markers to use. Identifying markers that can be used for ancestry inference among Native American populations can be considered separate from identifying markers to further the quest for history. In the current study we are using data on nine Native American populations to compare the results based on a large haplotype-based dataset with relatively small independent sets of SNPs. We are interested in what types of limited datasets an individual laboratory might be able to collect are best for addressing two different questions of interest. First, how well can we differentiate the Native American populations and/or infer ancestry by assigning an individual to her population(s) of origin? Second, how well can we infer the historical/evolutionary relationships among Native American populations and their Eurasian origins. We conclude that only a large comprehensive dataset involving multiple autosomal markers on multiple populations will be able to answer both questions; different small sets of markers are able to answer only one or the other of these questions. Using our largest dataset we see a general increasing distance from Old World populations from North to South in the New World except for an unexplained close relationship between our Maya and Quechua samples. PMID:21913176

Risk factors for psychopathology in children with intellectual disability: a prospective longitudinal population-based study.

PubMed

Wallander, J L; Dekker, M C; Koot, H M

2006-04-01

This study examined risk factors for the development of psychopathology in children with intellectual disability (ID) in the developmental, biological, family and social-ecological domains. A population sample of 968 children, aged 6-18, enrolled in special schools in The Netherlands for educable and trainable ID were assessed at Time 1. A random 58% were re-contacted about 1 year later, resulting in a sample of 474 at Time 2. Psychopathology was highly consistent over 1 year. Risk factors jointly accounted for significant, but small, portions of the variance in development of psychopathology. Child physical symptoms, family dysfunction and previous parental mental health treatment reported at Time 1 were uniquely associated with new psychopathology at Time 2. Prevention and early intervention research to find ways to reduce the incidence of psychopathology, possibly targeting family functioning, appear important.

Leading change: evidence-based transition.

PubMed

Lewis, Brennan; Allen, Stephanie

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article was to provide a framework for evidence-based transition of patient populations within an acute care pediatric institution. Transition within a hospital is foreseeable, given the ever-changing needs of the patients within an evolving healthcare system. These changes include moving patient populations because of expansion, renovation, or cohorting similar patient diagnoses to provide care across a continuum. Over the past 1 to 2 years, Children's Health Children's Medical Center Dallas has experienced a wide variety of transition. To provide a smooth transition for patients and families into new care areas resulting in a healthy work environment for all team members. The planning phase for patient population moves, and transition should address key aspects to include physical location and care flow, supplies and equipment, staffing model and human resources (HR), education and orientation, change process and integrating teams, and family preparation. It is imperative to consider these aspects in order for transitions within a healthcare system to be successful. During a time of such transitions, the clinical nurse specialist (CNS) is a highly valuable team member offering a unique perspective and methodological approach, which is central to the new initiative's overall success. The themes addressed in this article on evidence-based transition are organized according to the CNS spheres of influence: system/organization, patient/family, and nursing. An evidence-based transition plan was developed and implemented successfully with the support from the CNS for 3 patient populations. Organizational leadership gained an increased awareness of the CNS role at the conclusion of each successful transition. The CNS plays a pivotal role as clinical experts and proponents of evidence-based practice and effects change in the system/organization, nursing, and patient/family spheres of influence. While transitions can be a source of stress for leaders and bedside staff, it is also a time that allows for growth and new opportunities for staff and may result in development of a healthier work environment. The CNS is able to provide leadership while working collaboratively to oversee the moves with a forward-thinking approach. There are key components to consider during times of transition. These include (1) organize, plan, and improve work efficiencies during a construction build; (2) identify the key elements for improvement in nurse and patient satisfaction; (3) develop or maintain healthy work environment standards; (4) establish adequate staffing levels and staff education to successfully care for patient populations following transition; and (5) support the staff and patients during transition.

An individual-based model for population viability analysis of humpback chub in Grand Canyon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pine, William Pine; Healy, Brian; Smith, Emily Omana; Trammell, Melissa; Speas, Dave; Valdez, Rich; Yard, Mike; Walters, Carl; Ahrens, Rob; Vanhaverbeke, Randy; Stone, Dennis; Wilson, Wade

2013-01-01

We developed an individual-based population viability analysis model (females only) for evaluating risk to populations from catastrophic events or conservation and research actions. This model tracks attributes (size, weight, viability, etc.) for individual fish through time and then compiles this information to assess the extinction risk of the population across large numbers of simulation trials. Using a case history for the Little Colorado River population of Humpback Chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon, Arizona, we assessed extinction risk and resiliency to a catastrophic event for this population and then assessed a series of conservation actions related to removing specific numbers of Humpback Chub at different sizes for conservation purposes, such as translocating individuals to establish other spawning populations or hatchery refuge development. Our results suggested that the Little Colorado River population is generally resilient to a single catastrophic event and also to removals of larvae and juveniles for conservation purposes, including translocations to establish new populations. Our results also suggested that translocation success is dependent on similar survival rates in receiving and donor streams and low emigration rates from recipient streams. In addition, translocating either large numbers of larvae or small numbers of large juveniles has generally an equal likelihood of successful population establishment at similar extinction risk levels to the Little Colorado River donor population. Our model created a transparent platform to consider extinction risk to populations from catastrophe or conservation actions and should prove useful to managers assessing these risks for endangered species such as Humpback Chub.

Genetic origin, admixture and population history of aurochs (Bos primigenius) and primitive European cattle

PubMed Central

Upadhyay, M R; Chen, W; Lenstra, J A; Goderie, C R J; MacHugh, D E; Park, S D E; Magee, D A; Matassino, D; Ciani, F; Megens, H-J; van Arendonk, J A M; Groenen, M A M; Marsan, P A; Balteanu, V; Dunner, S; Garcia, J F; Ginja, C; Kantanen, J

2017-01-01

The domestication of taurine cattle initiated ~10 000 years ago in the Near East from a wild aurochs (Bos primigenius) population followed by their dispersal through migration of agriculturalists to Europe. Although gene flow from wild aurochs still present at the time of this early dispersion is still debated, some of the extant primitive cattle populations are believed to possess the aurochs-like primitive features. In this study, we use genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms to assess relationship, admixture patterns and demographic history of an ancient aurochs sample and European cattle populations, several of which have primitive features and are suitable for extensive management. The principal component analysis, the model-based clustering and a distance-based network analysis support previous works suggesting different histories for north-western and southern European cattle. Population admixture analysis indicates a zebu gene flow in the Balkan and Italian Podolic cattle populations. Our analysis supports the previous report of gene flow between British and Irish primitive cattle populations and local aurochs. In addition, we show evidence of aurochs gene flow in the Iberian cattle populations indicating wide geographical distribution of the aurochs. Runs of homozygosity (ROH) reveal that demographic processes like genetic isolation and breed formation have contributed to genomic variations of European cattle populations. The ROH also indicate recent inbreeding in southern European cattle populations. We conclude that in addition to factors such as ancient human migrations, isolation by distance and cross-breeding, gene flow between domestic and wild-cattle populations also has shaped genomic composition of European cattle populations. PMID:27677498

Patterns of invasion and colonization of the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in North America as revealed by microsatellite genotypes.

PubMed

Bryan, M B; Zalinski, D; Filcek, K B; Libants, S; Li, W; Scribner, K T

2005-10-01

Invasions by exotic organisms have had devastating affects on aquatic ecosystems, both ecologically and economically. One striking example of a successful invader that has dramatically affected fish community structure in freshwater lakes of North America is the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). We used eight microsatellite loci and multiple analytical techniques to examine competing hypotheses concerning the origins and colonization history of sea lamprey (n = 741). Analyses were based on replicated invasive populations from Lakes Erie, Huron, Michigan, and Superior, populations of unknown origins from Lakes Ontario, Champlain, and Cayuga, and populations of anadromous putative progenitor populations in North America and Europe. Populations in recently colonized lakes were each established by few colonists through a series of genetic bottlenecks which resulted in lower allelic diversity in more recently established populations. The spatial genetic structure of invasive populations differed from that of native populations on the Atlantic coast, reflecting founder events and connectivity of invaded habitats. Anadromous populations were found to be panmictic (theta(P) = 0.002; 95% CI = -0.003-0.006; P > 0.05). In contrast, there was significant genetic differentiation between populations in the lower and upper Great Lakes (theta(P) = 0.007; P < 0.05; 95% CI = 0.003-0.009). Populations in Lakes Ontario, Champlain, and Cayuga are native. Alternative models that describe different routes and timing of colonization of freshwater habitats were examined using coalescent-based analyses, and demonstrated that populations likely originated from natural migrations via the St Lawrence River.

Genetic origin, admixture and population history of aurochs (Bos primigenius) and primitive European cattle.

PubMed

Upadhyay, M R; Chen, W; Lenstra, J A; Goderie, C R J; MacHugh, D E; Park, S D E; Magee, D A; Matassino, D; Ciani, F; Megens, H-J; van Arendonk, J A M; Groenen, M A M

2017-02-01

The domestication of taurine cattle initiated ~10 000 years ago in the Near East from a wild aurochs (Bos primigenius) population followed by their dispersal through migration of agriculturalists to Europe. Although gene flow from wild aurochs still present at the time of this early dispersion is still debated, some of the extant primitive cattle populations are believed to possess the aurochs-like primitive features. In this study, we use genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms to assess relationship, admixture patterns and demographic history of an ancient aurochs sample and European cattle populations, several of which have primitive features and are suitable for extensive management. The principal component analysis, the model-based clustering and a distance-based network analysis support previous works suggesting different histories for north-western and southern European cattle. Population admixture analysis indicates a zebu gene flow in the Balkan and Italian Podolic cattle populations. Our analysis supports the previous report of gene flow between British and Irish primitive cattle populations and local aurochs. In addition, we show evidence of aurochs gene flow in the Iberian cattle populations indicating wide geographical distribution of the aurochs. Runs of homozygosity (ROH) reveal that demographic processes like genetic isolation and breed formation have contributed to genomic variations of European cattle populations. The ROH also indicate recent inbreeding in southern European cattle populations. We conclude that in addition to factors such as ancient human migrations, isolation by distance and cross-breeding, gene flow between domestic and wild-cattle populations also has shaped genomic composition of European cattle populations.

Levels and Determinants of Inflammatory Biomarkers in a Swiss Population-Based Sample (CoLaus Study)

PubMed Central

Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Bochud, Murielle; Bastardot, François; Lüscher, Thomas; Ferrero, François; Gaspoz, Jean-Michel; Paccaud, Fred; Urwyler, Adrian; von Känel, Roland; Hock, Christoph; Waeber, Gérard; Preisig, Martin; Vollenweider, Peter

2011-01-01

Objective to assess the levels and determinants of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α and C-reactive protein (CRP) in a healthy Caucasian population. Methods population sample of 2884 men and 3201 women aged 35 to 75. IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α were assessed by a multiplexed particle-based flow cytometric assay and CRP by an immunometric assay. Results Spearman rank correlations between duplicate cytokine measurements (N = 80) ranged between 0.89 and 0.96; intra-class correlation coefficients ranged between 0.94 and 0.97, indicating good reproducibility. Among the 6085 participants, 2289 (37.6%), 451 (7.4%) and 43 (0.7%) had IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α levels below detection limits, respectively. Median (interquartile range) for participants with detectable values were 1.17 (0.48–3.90) pg/ml for IL-1β; 1.47 (0.71–3.53) pg/ml for IL-6; 2.89 (1.82–4.53) pg/ml for TNF-α and 1.3 (0.6–2.7) ng/ml for CRP. On multivariate analysis, greater age was the only factor inversely associated with IL-1β levels. Male sex, increased BMI and smoking were associated with greater IL-6 levels, while no relationship was found for age and leisure-time PA. Male sex, greater age, increased BMI and current smoking were associated with greater TNF-α levels, while no relationship was found with leisure-time PA. CRP levels were positively related to age, BMI and smoking, and inversely to male sex and physical activity. Conclusion Population-based levels of several cytokines were established. Increased age and BMI, and to a lesser degree sex and smoking, significantly and differentially impact cytokine levels, while leisure-time physical activity has little effect. PMID:21695270

Potential Information Loss Due to Categorization of Minimum Inhibitory Concentration Frequency Distributions.

PubMed

Mazloom, Reza; Jaberi-Douraki, Majid; Comer, Jeffrey R; Volkova, Victoriya

2018-01-01

A bacterial isolate's susceptibility to antimicrobial is expressed as the lowest drug concentration inhibiting its visible growth, termed minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). The susceptibilities of isolates from a host population at a particular time vary, with isolates with specific MICs present at different frequencies. Currently, for either clinical or monitoring purposes, an isolate is most often categorized as Susceptible, Intermediate, or Resistant to the antimicrobial by comparing its MIC to a breakpoint value. Such data categorizations are known in statistics to cause information loss compared to analyzing the underlying frequency distributions. The U.S. National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) includes foodborne bacteria at the food animal processing and retail product points. The breakpoints used to interpret the MIC values for foodborne bacteria are those relevant to clinical treatments by the antimicrobials in humans in whom the isolates were to cause infection. However, conceptually different objectives arise when inference is sought concerning changes in susceptibility/resistance across isolates of a bacterial species in host populations among different sampling points or times. For the NARMS 1996-2013 data for animal processing and retail, we determined the fraction of comparisons of susceptibility/resistance to 44 antimicrobial drugs of twelve classes of a bacterial species in a given animal host or product population where there was a significant change in the MIC frequency distributions between consecutive years or the two sampling points, while the categorization-based analyses concluded no change. The categorization-based analyses missed significant changes in 54% of the year-to-year comparisons and in 71% of the slaughter-to-retail within-year comparisons. Hence, analyses using the breakpoint-based categorizations of the MIC data may miss significant developments in the resistance distributions between the sampling points or times. Methods considering the MIC frequency distributions in their entirety may be superior for epidemiological analyses of resistance dynamics in populations.

Evaluation of daily time spent in transportation and traffic-influenced microenvironments by urban Canadians.

PubMed

Matz, Carlyn J; Stieb, David M; Egyed, Marika; Brion, Orly; Johnson, Markey

2018-01-01

Exposure to traffic and traffic-related air pollution is associated with a wide array of health effects. Time spent in a vehicle, in active transportation, along roadsides, and in close proximity to traffic can substantially contribute to daily exposure to air pollutants. For this study, we evaluated daily time spent in transportation and traffic-influenced microenvironments by urban Canadians using the Canadian Human Activity Pattern Survey (CHAPS) 2 results. Approximately 4-7% of daily time was spent in on- or near-road locations, mainly associated with being in a vehicle and smaller contributions from active transportation. Indoor microenvironments can be impacted by traffic emissions, especially when located near major roadways. Over 60% of the target population reported living within one block of a roadway with moderate to heavy traffic, which was variable with income level and city, and confirmed based on elevated NO 2 exposure estimated using land use regression. Furthermore, over 55% of the target population ≤ 18 years reported attending a school or daycare in close proximity to moderate to heavy traffic, and little variation was observed based on income or city. The results underline the importance of traffic emissions as a major source of exposure in Canadian urban centers, given the time spent in traffic-influenced microenvironments.

Social Support and Leisure-Time Physical Activity Among the Elderly: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Böhm, Andrea Wendt; Mielke, Grégore Iven; da Cruz, Maurício Feijó; Ramirez, Virgílio Viana; Wehrmesister, Fernando C

2016-06-01

Physical inactivity in elderly is a public health problem. The purpose of this study is to describe and test the association between social support and leisure-time physical activity among the elderly. A cross-sectional, population-based study with 1,285 subjects (60+ years old) living in a city in southern Brazil was carried out in 2014. Physical activity practice was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire [leisure domain: at least 150 minutes per week of walking + moderate physical activity + 2(vigorous physical activity)], while social support was measured using the Physical Activity Social Support Scale. The prevalence of elderly who reached the recommendations of leisure-time physical activity was 18.4%. The elderly persons who had the company of family or friends to walk had a 2.45 times higher prevalence of reaching the recommendations of physical activity in leisure than those who did not. Those who had company of friends to practice moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were 3.23 times more likely to reach physical activity recommendations than their counterparts. The least common social support was the joint practice for walking and for MVPA. Strategies that incentivize family members and friends to provide social support to the elderly for physical activity focusing on joint practice must be encouraged.

Sports and leisure-time physical activity in pregnancy and birth weight: a population-based study.

PubMed

Hegaard, H K; Petersson, K; Hedegaard, M; Ottesen, B; Dykes, A K; Henriksen, T B; Damm, P

2010-02-01

We examined the association between sports and other leisure-time physical activities during pregnancy and birth weight of babies born after 37 completed weeks of gestation. All Danish-speaking pregnant women attending routine antenatal care at the Department of Obstetrics, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark, from August 1989 to September 1991 were invited to participate in the study. A total of 4458 healthy women who delivered after 37 completed gestational weeks participated in this study. The associations between sports (0, 1-2, 3+ h/week) or leisure-time physical activity (sedentary, light, and moderate to heavy) and birth weight were examined by linear and logistic regression and adjusted for potential confounding factors such as smoking, parity, schooling, pre-pregnancy body mass index and gestational age. The results showed that pregnant women who practiced sports or were moderate to heavy leisure-time physical active during the early second or the early third trimester gave birth to infants with a similar birth weight as inactive women. The proportion of newborns with a low (<2500 g) or a high birth weight (>/=4500 g) was also unchanged. In conclusion, in this large population-based study, we found no association between sports and leisure-time physical activity and low-birth weight, high-birth weight, or average-birth weight.

A SAS-based solution to evaluate study design efficiency of phase I pediatric oncology trials via discrete event simulation.

PubMed

Barrett, Jeffrey S; Jayaraman, Bhuvana; Patel, Dimple; Skolnik, Jeffrey M

2008-06-01

Previous exploration of oncology study design efficiency has focused on Markov processes alone (probability-based events) without consideration for time dependencies. Barriers to study completion include time delays associated with patient accrual, inevaluability (IE), time to dose limiting toxicities (DLT) and administrative and review time. Discrete event simulation (DES) can incorporate probability-based assignment of DLT and IE frequency, correlated with cohort in the case of DLT, with time-based events defined by stochastic relationships. A SAS-based solution to examine study efficiency metrics and evaluate design modifications that would improve study efficiency is presented. Virtual patients are simulated with attributes defined from prior distributions of relevant patient characteristics. Study population datasets are read into SAS macros which select patients and enroll them into a study based on the specific design criteria if the study is open to enrollment. Waiting times, arrival times and time to study events are also sampled from prior distributions; post-processing of study simulations is provided within the decision macros and compared across designs in a separate post-processing algorithm. This solution is examined via comparison of the standard 3+3 decision rule relative to the "rolling 6" design, a newly proposed enrollment strategy for the phase I pediatric oncology setting.

Improving diabetes population management efficiency with an informatics solution.

PubMed

Zai, Adrian; Grant, Richard; Andrews, Carl; Yee, Ronnie; Chueh, Henry

2007-10-11

Despite intensive resource use for diabetes management in the U.S., our care continues to fall short of evidence-based goals, partly due to system inefficiencies. Diabetes registries are increasingly being utilized as a critical tool for population level disease management by providing real-time data. Since the successful adoption of a diabetes registry depends on how well it integrates with disease management workflows, we optimized our current diabetes management workflow and designed our registry application around it.

Desynchronization of stochastically synchronized chemical oscillators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snari, Razan; Tinsley, Mark R., E-mail: mark.tinsley@mail.wvu.edu, E-mail: kshowalt@wvu.edu; Faramarzi, Sadegh

Experimental and theoretical studies are presented on the design of perturbations that enhance desynchronization in populations of oscillators that are synchronized by periodic entrainment. A phase reduction approach is used to determine optimal perturbation timing based upon experimentally measured phase response curves. The effectiveness of the perturbation waveforms is tested experimentally in populations of periodically and stochastically synchronized chemical oscillators. The relevance of the approach to therapeutic methods for disrupting phase coherence in groups of stochastically synchronized neuronal oscillators is discussed.

Standardizing the double-observer survey method for estimating mountain ungulate prey of the endangered snow leopard.

PubMed

Suryawanshi, Kulbhushansingh R; Bhatnagar, Yash Veer; Mishra, Charudutt

2012-07-01

Mountain ungulates around the world have been threatened by illegal hunting, habitat modification, increased livestock grazing, disease and development. Mountain ungulates play an important functional role in grasslands as primary consumers and as prey for wild carnivores, and monitoring of their populations is important for conservation purposes. However, most of the several currently available methods of estimating wild ungulate abundance are either difficult to implement or too expensive for mountainous terrain. A rigorous method of sampling ungulate abundance in mountainous areas that can allow for some measure of sampling error is therefore much needed. To this end, we used a combination of field data and computer simulations to test the critical assumptions associated with double-observer technique based on capture-recapture theory. The technique was modified and adapted to estimate the populations of bharal (Pseudois nayaur) and ibex (Capra sibirica) at five different sites. Conducting the two double-observer surveys simultaneously led to underestimation of the population by 15%. We therefore recommend separating the surveys in space or time. The overall detection probability for the two observers was 0.74 and 0.79. Our surveys estimated mountain ungulate populations (± 95% confidence interval) of 735 (± 44), 580 (± 46), 509 (± 53), 184 (± 40) and 30 (± 14) individuals at the five sites, respectively. A detection probability of 0.75 was found to be sufficient to detect a change of 20% in populations of >420 individuals. Based on these results, we believe that this method is sufficiently precise for scientific and conservation purposes and therefore recommend the use of the double-observer approach (with the two surveys separated in time or space) for the estimation and monitoring of mountain ungulate populations.

Falls in very old people: the population-based Umeå 85+ study in Sweden.

PubMed

von Heideken Wågert, Petra; Gustafson, Yngve; Kallin, Kristina; Jensen, Jane; Lundin-Olsson, Lillemor

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to describe incidences of falls and fall-related injuries, and to identify predisposing factors for falls in very old people in a prospective population-based follow-up study for falls. The study is part of the Umeå 85+ Study which includes half of the population aged 85, and the total population aged 90 and > or =95 (-103), in Umeå, Sweden. Of the 253 people interviewed, 220 (87%) were followed up for falls for 6 months, of whom 109 lived in ordinary and 111 in institutional housing. A comprehensive geriatric baseline assessment was made through interviews and testing during home visits. Forty percent of the participants did fall a total 304 times, corresponding to 2.17 falls per Person Year (PY). It occurred 0.83 injuries per PY, including 0.14 fractures per PY. In a Cox regression analysis, the independent explanatory risk factors for time to first fall were dependency in activities of daily living (ADL), thyroid disorders, treatment with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and occurrence of falls in the preceding year. It could be predicted that every seventh participant and every third of the people who did fall would suffer a fracture within 1 year. ADL, thyroid disorders and treatment with SSRIs should be considered in fall prevention programmes.

[Screening program for tuberculosis among international exchange students in the Department of Isère].

PubMed

Albahary, M-V; Blanc-Jouvan, F; Recule, C; Dubey, C; Pavese, P

2018-01-01

France is a low-incidence country for tuberculosis (TB). Consequently screening is focused on high-risk populations, in particular migrants. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology of TB among international exchange students in the Department of Isère and the screening programs used. We carried out an organizational audit based on interviews with physicians involved in the management of TB in Isère. We conducted a retrospective descriptive study based on a case series of foreign students treated for TB from 2003 to 2013 inclusively. Forty-six international exchange students were treated for active TB during this time, representing an average incidence of 284/100,000. Two thirds of our studied population were Africans, 72% were asymptomatic at the time of screening. A quarter of our cohort developed TB after the initial screening. Thirty-one cases were confirmed bacteriologically, mainly through bronchoscopy. Outcome (radiological and clinical) on quadruple therapy was satisfactory in all patients. Two patients relapsed, one of them with multi-drug resistant TB. Our work confirms that international exchange students are a population at high risk of TB and that screening of this population is essential. The significant number of active TB cases diagnosed after the initial screening stresses the importance of diagnosis and follow up of patients with latent TB infection. Copyright © 2017 SPLF. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A novel pipeline based FPGA implementation of a genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirer, Nonel

2014-05-01

To solve problems when an analytical solution is not available, more and more bio-inspired computation techniques have been applied in the last years. Thus, an efficient algorithm is the Genetic Algorithm (GA), which imitates the biological evolution process, finding the solution by the mechanism of "natural selection", where the strong has higher chances to survive. A genetic algorithm is an iterative procedure which operates on a population of individuals called "chromosomes" or "possible solutions" (usually represented by a binary code). GA performs several processes with the population individuals to produce a new population, like in the biological evolution. To provide a high speed solution, pipelined based FPGA hardware implementations are used, with a nstages pipeline for a n-phases genetic algorithm. The FPGA pipeline implementations are constraints by the different execution time of each stage and by the FPGA chip resources. To minimize these difficulties, we propose a bio-inspired technique to modify the crossover step by using non identical twins. Thus two of the chosen chromosomes (parents) will build up two new chromosomes (children) not only one as in classical GA. We analyze the contribution of this method to reduce the execution time in the asynchronous and synchronous pipelines and also the possibility to a cheaper FPGA implementation, by using smaller populations. The full hardware architecture for a FPGA implementation to our target ALTERA development card is presented and analyzed.

Stability of upper face sexual dimorphism in central European populations (Czech Republic) during the modern age.

PubMed

Bejdová, Šárka; Dupej, Ján; Krajíček, Václav; Velemínská, Jana; Velemínský, Petr

2018-01-01

One of the most fundamental issues in forensic anthropology is the determination of sex and population affinity based on various skeletal elements. Therefore, we compared the sexual dimorphism of the upper facial skeleton from a recent Czech population (twenty-first century) with that of a population from Early Modern Age Bohemia (sixteenth to eighteenth centuries). Methods of geometric morphometrics were applied. According to the results, sexual dimorphism in terms of size, shape, and form was statistically significant in both populations. The best results of sex estimation originated from analyses of form. Thus, both size and shape differences should be taken into account for determination of the sex. The accuracy of prediction achieved 91.1% for individuals in the recent population and 87.5% for individuals from the early modern population. Only minor differences were found between sexual dimorphism in the studied populations. We conclude that sexual dimorphism of the upper facial skeleton is stable during the relatively short time period.

Assessment of public health impact of work-related asthma.

PubMed

Jaakkola, Maritta S; Jaakkola, Jouni J K

2012-03-05

Asthma is among the most common chronic diseases in working-aged populations and occupational exposures are important causal agents. Our aims were to evaluate the best methods to assess occurrence, public health impact, and burden to society related to occupational or work-related asthma and to achieve comparable estimates for different populations. We addressed three central questions: 1: What is the best method to assess the occurrence of occupational asthma? We evaluated: 1) assessment of the occurrence of occupational asthma per se, and 2) assessment of adult-onset asthma and the population attributable fractions due to specific occupational exposures. 2: What are the best methods to assess public health impact and burden to society related to occupational or work-related asthma? We evaluated methods based on assessment of excess burden of disease due to specific occupational exposures. 3: How to achieve comparable estimates for different populations? We evaluated comparability of estimates of occurrence and burden attributable to occupational asthma based on different methods. Assessment of the occurrence of occupational asthma per se can be used in countries with good coverage of the identification system for occupational asthma, i.e. countries with well-functioning occupational health services. Assessment based on adult-onset asthma and population attributable fractions due to specific occupational exposures is a good approach to estimate the occurrence of occupational asthma at the population level. For assessment of public health impact from work-related asthma we recommend assessing excess burden of disease due to specific occupational exposures, including excess incidence of asthma complemented by an assessment of disability from it. International comparability of estimates can be best achieved by methods based on population attributable fractions. Public health impact assessment for occupational asthma is central in prevention and health policy planning and could be improved by purposeful development of methods for assessing health benefits from preventive actions. Registry-based methods are suitable for evaluating time-trends of occurrence at a given population but for international comparisons they face serious limitations. Assessment of excess burden of disease due to specific occupational exposure is a useful measure, when there is valid information on population exposure and attributable fractions.

Reconstructing Past Admixture Processes from Local Genomic Ancestry Using Wavelet Transformation

PubMed Central

Sanderson, Jean; Sudoyo, Herawati; Karafet, Tatiana M.; Hammer, Michael F.; Cox, Murray P.

2015-01-01

Admixture between long-separated populations is a defining feature of the genomes of many species. The mosaic block structure of admixed genomes can provide information about past contact events, including the time and extent of admixture. Here, we describe an improved wavelet-based technique that better characterizes ancestry block structure from observed genomic patterns. principal components analysis is first applied to genomic data to identify the primary population structure, followed by wavelet decomposition to develop a new characterization of local ancestry information along the chromosomes. For testing purposes, this method is applied to human genome-wide genotype data from Indonesia, as well as virtual genetic data generated using genome-scale sequential coalescent simulations under a wide range of admixture scenarios. Time of admixture is inferred using an approximate Bayesian computation framework, providing robust estimates of both admixture times and their associated levels of uncertainty. Crucially, we demonstrate that this revised wavelet approach, which we have released as the R package adwave, provides improved statistical power over existing wavelet-based techniques and can be used to address a broad range of admixture questions. PMID:25852078

Population Pharmacokinetics of Oral Baclofen in Pediatric Patients with Cerebral Palsy

PubMed Central

He, Yang; Brunstrom-Hernandez, Janice E.; Thio, Liu Lin; Lackey, Shellie; Gaebler-Spira, Deborah; Kuroda, Maxine M.; Stashinko, Elaine; Hoon, Alexander H.; Vargus-Adams, Jilda; Stevenson, Richard D.; Lowenhaupt, Stephanie; McLaughlin, John F.; Christensen, Ana; Dosa, Nienke P.; Butler, Maureen; Schwabe, Aloysia; Lopez, Christina; Roge, Desiree; Kennedy, Diane; Tilton, Ann; Krach, Linda E.; Lewandowski, Andrew; Dai, Hongying; Gaedigk, Andrea; Leeder, J. Steven; Jusko, William J.

2014-01-01

Objective To characterize the population pharmacokinetics (PK) of oral baclofen and assess impact of patient-specific covariates in children with cerebral palsy (CP) in order to support its clinical use. Subjects design Children (2-17 years of age) with CP received a dose of titrated oral baclofen from 2.5 mg 3 times a day to a maximum tolerated dose of up to 20 mg 4 times a day. PK sampling followed titration of 10-12 weeks. Serial R- and S-baclofen plasma concentrations were measured for up to 16 hours in 49 subjects. Population PK modeling was performed using NONMEM 7.1 (ICON PLC; Ellicott City, Maryland). Results R- and S-baclofen showed identical concentration-time profiles. Both baclofen enantiomers exhibited linear and dose/kg-proportional PK, and no sex differences were observed. Average baclofen terminal half-life was 4.5 hours. A 2-compartment PK model with linear elimination and transit absorption steps adequately described concentration-time profiles of both baclofen enantiomers. The mean population estimate of apparent clearance/F was 0.273 L/h/kg with 33.4% inter-individual variability (IIV), and the apparent volume of distribution (Vss/F) was 1.16 L/kg with 43.9% IIV. Delayed absorption was expressed by a mean transit time of 0.389 hours with 83.7% IIV. Body weight, a possible genetic factor, and age were determinants of apparent clearance in these children. Conclusion The PK of oral baclofen exhibited dose-proportionality and were adequately described by a 2-compartment model. Our population PK findings suggest that baclofen dosage can be based on body weight (2 mg/kg per day) and the current baclofen dose escalation strategy is appropriate in the treatment of children with CP older than 2 years of age. PMID:24607242

A Time-domain Analysis of Nitrogen-rich Quasars.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittmann, Alexander; Liu, Xin; Shen, Yue; Jiang, Linhua

2018-01-01

A small population of quasars exhibit anomalously high nitrogen-to-carbon ratios (N/C) in their emission lines. These “nitrogen-rich” (N-rich) quasars have been difficult to explain. Few of the possible mechanism are natural, since stellar populations with abnormally high metallicities are required to produce an N-rich interstellar medium. N-rich quasars are also more likely to be “radio-loud” than average quasars, which is difficult to explain by invoking higher metallicity alone. Recently, tidal disruption events (TDEs) have been proposed as a mechanism for N-rich quasars. Such a TDE would occur between a supersolar mass star and a supermassive black hole. The CNO cycle creates a surplus of N-rich and carbon-deficient material that could naturally explain the N/C observed in N-rich quasars. The TDE hypothesis explains N-rich quasars without requiring extremely exotic stellar populations. A testable difference differentiating the TDE explanation and exotic stellar population scenarios is that TDEs do not produce enough N-rich material to pollute the quasar environment for extended periods of time, in which case N-rich phenomena in quasars would be transient. By analyzing changes in nitrogen and carbon line widths in time-separated spectra of N-rich quasars, we have studied nitrogen abundance in quasars which had previously been identified as nitrogen rich. We have found that over time-frames of greater than one year in the quasar rest frame, nitrogen abundance tends to systematically decrease. The observed decrease is larger than our estimate of the effects of noise based on spectra separated by smaller time frames. Additionally, x-ray observations of one N-rich quasar have demonstrated that its x-ray emission is an outlier among the quasar population, but similar to confirmed TDEs.