High urban population density of birds reflects their timing of urbanization.

PubMed

Møller, Anders Pape; Diaz, Mario; Flensted-Jensen, Einar; Grim, Tomas; Ibáñez-Álamo, Juan Diego; Jokimäki, Jukka; Mänd, Raivo; Markó, Gábor; Tryjanowski, Piotr

2012-11-01

Living organisms generally occur at the highest population density in the most suitable habitat. Therefore, invasion of and adaptation to novel habitats imply a gradual increase in population density, from that at or below what was found in the ancestral habitat to a density that may reach higher levels in the novel habitat following adaptation to that habitat. We tested this prediction of invasion biology by analyzing data on population density of breeding birds in their ancestral rural habitats and in matched nearby urban habitats that have been colonized recently across a continental latitudinal gradient. We estimated population density in the two types of habitats using extensive point census bird counts, and we obtained information on the year of urbanization when population density in urban habitats reached levels higher than that of the ancestral rural habitat from published records and estimates by experienced ornithologists. Both the difference in population density between urban and rural habitats and the year of urbanization were significantly repeatable when analyzing multiple populations of the same species across Europe. Population density was on average 30 % higher in urban than in rural habitats, although density reached as much as 100-fold higher in urban habitats in some species. Invasive urban bird species that colonized urban environments over a long period achieved the largest increases in population density compared to their ancestral rural habitats. This was independent of whether species were anciently or recently urbanized, providing a unique cross-validation of timing of urban invasions. These results suggest that successful invasion of urban habitats was associated with gradual adaptation to these habitats as shown by a significant increase in population density in urban habitats over time.

Population Density Modulates Drug Inhibition and Gives Rise to Potential Bistability of Treatment Outcomes for Bacterial Infections.

PubMed

Karslake, Jason; Maltas, Jeff; Brumm, Peter; Wood, Kevin B

2016-10-01

The inoculum effect (IE) is an increase in the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of an antibiotic as a function of the initial size of a microbial population. The IE has been observed in a wide range of bacteria, implying that antibiotic efficacy may depend on population density. Such density dependence could have dramatic effects on bacterial population dynamics and potential treatment strategies, but explicit measures of per capita growth as a function of density are generally not available. Instead, the IE measures MIC as a function of initial population size, and population density changes by many orders of magnitude on the timescale of the experiment. Therefore, the functional relationship between population density and antibiotic inhibition is generally not known, leaving many questions about the impact of the IE on different treatment strategies unanswered. To address these questions, here we directly measured real-time per capita growth of Enterococcus faecalis populations exposed to antibiotic at fixed population densities using multiplexed computer-automated culture devices. We show that density-dependent growth inhibition is pervasive for commonly used antibiotics, with some drugs showing increased inhibition and others decreased inhibition at high densities. For several drugs, the density dependence is mediated by changes in extracellular pH, a community-level phenomenon not previously linked with the IE. Using a simple mathematical model, we demonstrate how this density dependence can modulate population dynamics in constant drug environments. Then, we illustrate how time-dependent dosing strategies can mitigate the negative effects of density-dependence. Finally, we show that these density effects lead to bistable treatment outcomes for a wide range of antibiotic concentrations in a pharmacological model of antibiotic treatment. As a result, infections exceeding a critical density often survive otherwise effective treatments.

Population Density Modulates Drug Inhibition and Gives Rise to Potential Bistability of Treatment Outcomes for Bacterial Infections

PubMed Central

Maltas, Jeff; Brumm, Peter; Wood, Kevin B.

2016-01-01

The inoculum effect (IE) is an increase in the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of an antibiotic as a function of the initial size of a microbial population. The IE has been observed in a wide range of bacteria, implying that antibiotic efficacy may depend on population density. Such density dependence could have dramatic effects on bacterial population dynamics and potential treatment strategies, but explicit measures of per capita growth as a function of density are generally not available. Instead, the IE measures MIC as a function of initial population size, and population density changes by many orders of magnitude on the timescale of the experiment. Therefore, the functional relationship between population density and antibiotic inhibition is generally not known, leaving many questions about the impact of the IE on different treatment strategies unanswered. To address these questions, here we directly measured real-time per capita growth of Enterococcus faecalis populations exposed to antibiotic at fixed population densities using multiplexed computer-automated culture devices. We show that density-dependent growth inhibition is pervasive for commonly used antibiotics, with some drugs showing increased inhibition and others decreased inhibition at high densities. For several drugs, the density dependence is mediated by changes in extracellular pH, a community-level phenomenon not previously linked with the IE. Using a simple mathematical model, we demonstrate how this density dependence can modulate population dynamics in constant drug environments. Then, we illustrate how time-dependent dosing strategies can mitigate the negative effects of density-dependence. Finally, we show that these density effects lead to bistable treatment outcomes for a wide range of antibiotic concentrations in a pharmacological model of antibiotic treatment. As a result, infections exceeding a critical density often survive otherwise effective treatments. PMID:27764095

Bayesian Inference on the Effect of Density Dependence and Weather on a Guanaco Population from Chile

PubMed Central

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation. PMID:25514510

Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile.

PubMed

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.

Intraspecific competition and density dependence of food consumption and growth in Arctic charr.

PubMed

Amundsen, Per-Arne; Knudsen, Rune; Klemetsen, Anders

2007-01-01

1. Intraspecific competition for restricted food resources is considered to play a fundamental part in density dependence of somatic growth and other population characteristics, but studies simultaneously addressing the interrelationships between population density, food acquisition and somatic growth have been missing. 2. We explored the food consumption and individual growth rates of Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus in a long-term survey following a large-scale density manipulation experiment in a subarctic lake. 3. Prior to the initiation of the experiment, the population density was high and the somatic growth rates low, revealing a severely overcrowded and stunted fish population. 4. During the 6-year period of stock depletion the population density of Arctic charr was reduced with about 75%, resulting in an almost twofold increase in food consumption rates and enhanced individual growth rates of the fish. 5. Over the decade following the density manipulation experiment, the population density gradually rose to intermediate levels, accompanied by corresponding reductions in food consumption and somatic growth rates. 6. The study revealed negative relationships with population density for both food consumption and individual growth rates, reflecting a strong positive correlation between quantitative food intake and somatic growth rates. 7. Both the growth and consumption rate relationships with population density were well described by negative power curves, suggesting that large density perturbations are necessary to induce improved feeding conditions and growth rates in stunted fish populations. 8. The findings demonstrate that quantitative food consumption represents the connective link between population density and individual growth rates, apparently being highly influenced by intraspecific competition for limited resources.

Exploring the relationship between population density and maternal health coverage.

PubMed

Hanlon, Michael; Burstein, Roy; Masters, Samuel H; Zhang, Raymond

2012-11-21

Delivering health services to dense populations is more practical than to dispersed populations, other factors constant. This engenders the hypothesis that population density positively affects coverage rates of health services. This hypothesis has been tested indirectly for some services at a local level, but not at a national level. We use cross-sectional data to conduct cross-country, OLS regressions at the national level to estimate the relationship between population density and maternal health coverage. We separately estimate the effect of two measures of density on three population-level coverage rates (6 tests in total). Our coverage indicators are the fraction of the maternal population completing four antenatal care visits and the utilization rates of both skilled birth attendants and in-facility delivery. The first density metric we use is the percentage of a population living in an urban area. The second metric, which we denote as a density score, is a relative ranking of countries by population density. The score's calculation discounts a nation's uninhabited territory under the assumption those areas are irrelevant to service delivery. We find significantly positive relationships between our maternal health indicators and density measures. On average, a one-unit increase in our density score is equivalent to a 0.2% increase in coverage rates. Countries with dispersed populations face higher burdens to achieve multinational coverage targets such as the United Nations' Millennial Development Goals.

Critical patch size generated by Allee effect in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.)

Treesearch

E. Vercken; A.M. Kramer; P.C. Tobin; J.M. Drake

2011-01-01

Allee effects are important dynamical mechanisms in small-density populations in which per capita population growth rate increases with density. When positive density dependence is sufficiently severe (a 'strong' Allee effect), a critical density arises below which populations do not persist. For spatially distributed populations subject to dispersal, theory...

Density dependence in demography and dispersal generates fluctuating invasion speeds

PubMed Central

Li, Bingtuan; Miller, Tom E. X.

2017-01-01

Density dependence plays an important role in population regulation and is known to generate temporal fluctuations in population density. However, the ways in which density dependence affects spatial population processes, such as species invasions, are less understood. Although classical ecological theory suggests that invasions should advance at a constant speed, empirical work is illuminating the highly variable nature of biological invasions, which often exhibit nonconstant spreading speeds, even in simple, controlled settings. Here, we explore endogenous density dependence as a mechanism for inducing variability in biological invasions with a set of population models that incorporate density dependence in demographic and dispersal parameters. We show that density dependence in demography at low population densities—i.e., an Allee effect—combined with spatiotemporal variability in population density behind the invasion front can produce fluctuations in spreading speed. The density fluctuations behind the front can arise from either overcompensatory population growth or density-dependent dispersal, both of which are common in nature. Our results show that simple rules can generate complex spread dynamics and highlight a source of variability in biological invasions that may aid in ecological forecasting. PMID:28442569

Effects of high density on spacing behaviour and reproduction in Akodon azarae: A fencing experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ávila, Belén; Bonatto, Florencia; Priotto, José; Steinmann, Andrea R.

2016-01-01

We studied the short term spacing behavioural responses of Pampean grassland mouse (Akodon azarae) with regard to population density in four 0.25 ha enclosures (two control and two experimental) in the 2011 breeding season. Based on the hypothesis that A. azarae breeding females exhibit spacing behaviour, and breeding males show a fusion spatial response, we tested the following predictions: (1) home range size and intrasexual overlap degree of females are independent of population density values; (2) at high population density, home range size of males decreases and the intrasexual home range overlap degree increases. To determine if female reproductive success decreases at high population density, we analyzed pregnancy rate, size and weight of litters, and period until fecundation in both low and high enclosure population density. We found that both males and females varied their home range size in relation to population density. Although male home ranges were always bigger than those of females in populations with high density, home range sizes of both sexes decreased. Females kept exclusive home ranges independent of density values meanwhile males decreased home range overlap in high breeding density populations. Although females produced litters of similar size in both treatments, weight of litter, pregnant rate and period until fecundation varied in relation to population density. Our results did not support the hypothesis that at high density females of A. azarae exhibit spacing behaviour neither that males exhibit a fusion spatial response.

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events

PubMed Central

Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J.

2018-01-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag–recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004–2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event. PMID:29657746

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J

2018-03-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag-recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004-2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event.

Ecological drivers of guanaco recruitment: variable carrying capacity and density dependence.

PubMed

Marino, Andrea; Pascual, Miguel; Baldi, Ricardo

2014-08-01

Ungulates living in predator-free reserves offer the opportunity to study the influence of food limitation on population dynamics without the potentially confounding effects of top-down regulation or livestock competition. We assessed the influence of relative forage availability and population density on guanaco recruitment in two predator-free reserves in eastern Patagonia, with contrasting scenarios of population density. We also explored the relative contribution of the observed recruitment to population growth using a deterministic linear model to test the assumption that the studied populations were closed units. The observed densities increased twice as fast as our theoretical populations, indicating that marked immigration has taken place during the recovery phase experienced by both populations, thus we rejected the closed-population assumption. Regarding the factors driving variation in recruitment, in the low- to medium-density setting, we found a positive linear relationship between recruitment and surrogates of annual primary production, whereas no density dependence was detected. In contrast, in the high-density scenario, both annual primary production and population density showed marked effects, indicating a positive relationship between recruitment and per capita food availability above a food-limitation threshold. Our results support the idea that environmental carrying capacity fluctuates in response to climatic variation, and that these fluctuations have relevant consequences for herbivore dynamics, such as amplifying density dependence in drier years. We conclude that including the coupling between environmental variability in resources and density dependence is crucial to model ungulate population dynamics; to overlook temporal changes in carrying capacity may even mask density dependence as well as other important processes.

Survival rates of female white-tailed deer on an industrial forest following a decline in population density

Treesearch

Shawn M. Crimmins; John W. Edwards; Patrick D. Keyser; James M. Crum; W. Mark Ford; Brad F. Miller; Tyler A. Campbell; Karl V. Miller

2013-01-01

With white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations at historically high levels throughout many North American forests, many current management activities are aimed at reducing deer populations. However, very little information exists on the ecology of low-density white-tailed deer populations or populations that have declined in density. We...

10 CFR 960.5-2-1 - Population density and distribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Population density and distribution. 960.5-2-1 Section 960... Population density and distribution. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be located such that, during... specified in § 960.5-1(a)(1). (b) Favorable conditions. (1) A low population density in the general region...

10 CFR 960.5-2-1 - Population density and distribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Population density and distribution. 960.5-2-1 Section 960... Population density and distribution. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be located such that, during... specified in § 960.5-1(a)(1). (b) Favorable conditions. (1) A low population density in the general region...

10 CFR 960.5-2-1 - Population density and distribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Population density and distribution. 960.5-2-1 Section 960... Population density and distribution. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be located such that, during... specified in § 960.5-1(a)(1). (b) Favorable conditions. (1) A low population density in the general region...

10 CFR 960.5-2-1 - Population density and distribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Population density and distribution. 960.5-2-1 Section 960... Population density and distribution. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be located such that, during... specified in § 960.5-1(a)(1). (b) Favorable conditions. (1) A low population density in the general region...

Effective size of density-dependent two-sex populations: the effect of mating systems.

PubMed

Myhre, A M; Engen, S; SAEther, B-E

2017-08-01

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N e in short-lived, density-dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density-dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N e /N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male-biased, density-dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density-independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N e /N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Genetic structure, spatial organization, and dispersal in two populations of bat-eared foxes

PubMed Central

Kamler, Jan F; Gray, Melissa M; Oh, Annie; Macdonald, David W

2013-01-01

We incorporated radio-telemetry data with genetic analysis of bat-eared foxes (Otocyon megalotis) from individuals in 32 different groups to examine relatedness and spatial organization in two populations in South Africa that differed in density, home-range sizes, and group sizes. Kin clustering occurred only for female dyads in the high-density population. Relatedness was negatively correlated with distance only for female dyads in the high-density population, and for male and mixed-sex dyads in the low-density population. Home-range overlap of neighboring female dyads was significantly greater in the high compared to low-density population, whereas overlap within other dyads was similar between populations. Amount of home-range overlap between neighbors was positively correlated with genetic relatedness for all dyad-site combinations, except for female and male dyads in the low-density population. Foxes from all age and sex classes dispersed, although females (mostly adults) dispersed farther than males. Yearlings dispersed later in the high-density population, and overall exhibited a male-biased dispersal pattern. Our results indicated that genetic structure within populations of bat-eared foxes was sex-biased, and was interrelated to density and group sizes, as well as sex-biases in philopatry and dispersal distances. We conclude that a combination of male-biased dispersal rates, adult dispersals, and sex-biased dispersal distances likely helped to facilitate inbreeding avoidance in this evolutionarily unique species of Canidae. PMID:24101981

Sexual segregation in North American elk: the role of density dependence

PubMed Central

Stewart, Kelley M; Walsh, Danielle R; Kie, John G; Dick, Brian L; Bowyer, R Terry

2015-01-01

We investigated how density-dependent processes and subsequent variation in nutritional condition of individuals influenced both timing and duration of sexual segregation and selection of resources. During 1999–2001, we experimentally created two population densities of North American elk (Cervus elaphus), a high-density population at 20 elk/km2, and a low-density population at 4 elk/km2 to test hypotheses relative to timing and duration of sexual segregation and variation in selection of resources. We used multi-response permutation procedures to investigate patterns of sexual segregation, and resource selection functions to document differences in selection of resources by individuals in high- and low-density populations during sexual segregation and aggregation. The duration of sexual segregation was 2 months longer in the high-density population and likely was influenced by individuals in poorer nutritional condition, which corresponded with later conception and parturition, than at low density. Males and females in the high-density population overlapped in selection of resources to a greater extent than in the low-density population, probably resulting from density-dependent effects of increased intraspecific competition and lower availability of resources. PMID:25691992

Esophageal eosinophilia is increased in rural areas with low population density: results from a national pathology database.

PubMed

Jensen, Elizabeth T; Hoffman, Kate; Shaheen, Nicholas J; Genta, Robert M; Dellon, Evan S

2014-05-01

Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is an increasingly prevalent chronic disease arising from an allergy/immune-mediated process. Generally, the risk of atopic disease differs in rural and urban environments. The relationship between population density and EoE is unknown. Our aim was to assess the relationship between EoE and population density. We conducted a cross-sectional, case-control study of patients with esophageal biopsies in a US national pathology database between January 2009 and June 2012 to assess the relationship between population density and EoE. Using geographic information systems, the population density (individuals per square mile) was determined for each patient zip code. The odds of esophageal eosinophilia and EoE were estimated for each quintile of population density and adjusted for potential confounders. Sensitivity analyses were conducted with varying case definitions and to evaluate the potential for bias from endoscopy volume and patient factors. Of 292,621 unique patients in the source population, 89,754 had normal esophageal biopsies and 14,381 had esophageal eosinophilia with ≥15 eosinophils per high-power field. The odds of having esophageal eosinophilia increased with decreasing population density (P for trend <0.001). Compared with those in the highest quintile of population density, odds of having esophageal eosinophilia were significantly higher among those in the lowest quintile of population density (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18, 1.36). A similar dose-response trend was observed across case definitions with increased odds of EoE in the lowest population density quintile (aOR 1.59, 95% CI: 1.45-1.76). Estimates were robust to sensitivity analyses. Population density is strongly and inversely associated with esophageal eosinophilia and EoE. This association is robust to varying case definitions and adjustment factors. Environmental exposures that are more prominent in rural areas may be relevant to the pathogenesis of EoE.

Esophageal eosinophilia is increased in rural areas with low population density: Results from a national pathology database

PubMed Central

Jensen, Elizabeth T.; Hoffman, Kate; Shaheen, Nicholas J.; Genta, Robert M.; Dellon, Evan S.

2015-01-01

Objectives Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is an increasingly prevalent chronic disease arising from an allergy/immune-mediated process. Generally, the risk of atopic disease differs in rural and urban environments. The relationship between population density and EoE is unknown. Our aim was to assess the relationship between EoE and population density. Methods : We conducted a cross-sectional, case-control study of patients with esophageal biopsies in a U.S. national pathology database between January 2009 and June 2012 to assess the relationship between population density and EoE. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the population density (individuals/mile2) was determined for each patient zip code. The odds of esophageal eosinophilia and EoE were estimated for each quintile of population density and adjusted for potential confounders. Sensitivity analyses were conducted with varying case definitions and to evaluate the potential for bias from endoscopy volume and patient factors. Results Of 292,621 unique patients in the source population, 89,754 had normal esophageal biopsies and 14,381 had esophageal eosinophilia with ≥15 eosinophils per high-power field (eos/hpf). The odds of esophageal eosinophilia increased with decreasing population density (p for trend < 0.001). Compared to those in the highest quintile of population density, odds of esophageal eosinophilia were significantly higher amongst those in the lowest quintile of population density (aOR 1.27, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.36). A similar dose-response trend was observed across case definitions with odds of EoE increased in the lowest population density quintile (aOR 1.59, 95% CI: 1.45-1.76). Estimates were robust to sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Population density is strongly and inversely associated with esophageal eosinophilia and EoE. This association is robust to varying case definitions and adjustment factors. Environmental exposures more prominent in rural areas may be relevant to the pathogenesis of EoE. PMID:24667575

Population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Gedeborg, Rolf; Thiblin, Ingemar; Byberg, Liisa; Melhus, Håkan; Lindbäck, Johan; Michaelsson, Karl

2010-10-01

To assess whether higher mortality rates among individuals in motor vehicle crashes in areas with low population density depend on injury type and severity or are related to the performance of emergency medical services (EMS). Prehospital and hospital deaths were studied in a population-based cohort of 41,243 motor vehicle crashes that occurred in Sweden between 1998 and 2004. The final multivariable analysis was restricted to 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, to minimise the effects of confounding factors. Crude mortality rates following motor vehicle crashes were inversely related to regional population density. In regions with low population density, the unadjusted rate ratio for prehospital death was 2.2 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.5) and for hospital death 1.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.9), compared with a high-density population. However, after controlling for regional differences in age, gender and the type/severity of injuries among 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, low population density was no longer associated with increased mortality. At 25 years of age, predicted prehospital mortality was 9% lower (95% CI 5% to 12%) in regions with low population density compared with high population density. This difference decreased with increasing age, but was still 3% lower (95% CI 0.5% to 5%) at 65 years of age. The inverse relationship between population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes is related to pre-crash factors that influence the type and severity of injuries and not to differences in EMS.

Exploring the relationship between population density and maternal health coverage

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Delivering health services to dense populations is more practical than to dispersed populations, other factors constant. This engenders the hypothesis that population density positively affects coverage rates of health services. This hypothesis has been tested indirectly for some services at a local level, but not at a national level. Methods We use cross-sectional data to conduct cross-country, OLS regressions at the national level to estimate the relationship between population density and maternal health coverage. We separately estimate the effect of two measures of density on three population-level coverage rates (6 tests in total). Our coverage indicators are the fraction of the maternal population completing four antenatal care visits and the utilization rates of both skilled birth attendants and in-facility delivery. The first density metric we use is the percentage of a population living in an urban area. The second metric, which we denote as a density score, is a relative ranking of countries by population density. The score’s calculation discounts a nation’s uninhabited territory under the assumption those areas are irrelevant to service delivery. Results We find significantly positive relationships between our maternal health indicators and density measures. On average, a one-unit increase in our density score is equivalent to a 0.2% increase in coverage rates. Conclusions Countries with dispersed populations face higher burdens to achieve multinational coverage targets such as the United Nations’ Millennial Development Goals. PMID:23170895

Population density and youth antisocial behavior.

PubMed

Harden, K Paige; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Van Hulle, Carol; Turkheimer, Eric; Rodgers, Joseph L; Waldman, Irwin D; Lahey, Benjamin B

2009-08-01

Theoretical models concerning how neighborhood contexts adversely influence juvenile antisocial behavior frequently focus on urban neighborhoods; however, previous studies comparing urban and rural areas on the prevalence of youth antisocial behavior have yielded mixed results. The current study uses longitudinal data on the offspring of a nationally representative sample of mothers (N = 4,886) in the US. There was no relation between density and mother-reported child conduct problems across ages 4-13 years, but youth living in areas of greater population density exhibited more youth self-reported delinquency across 10-17 years. Families often moved to counties with greater or lesser population density, but longitudinal analyses treating population density as a time-varying covariate did not support the hypothesis that living in densely populated counties influenced youth delinquency. Rather, the association between population density and delinquency appears to be due to unmeasured selection variables that differ between families who live in more or less densely populated counties.

DENSITY-DEPENDENT EVOLUTION OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER.

PubMed

Bierbaum, Todd J; Mueller, Laurence D; Ayala, Francisco J

1989-03-01

Populations of Drosophila melanogaster were maintained for 36 generations in r- and K-selected environments in order to test the life-history predictions of theories on density-dependent selection. In the r-selection environment, populations were reduced to low densities by density-independent adult mortality, whereas populations in the K-selection environment were maintained at their carrying capacity. Some of the experimental results support the predictions or r- and K-selection theory; relative to the r-selected populations, the K-selected populations evolved an increased larval-to-adult viability, larger body size, and longer development time at high larval densities. Mueller and Ayala (1981) found that K-selected populations also have a higher rate of population growth at high densities. Other predictions of the thoery are contradicted by the lack of differences between the r and K populations in adult longevity and fecundity and a slower rate of development for r-selected individuals at low densities. The differences between selected populations in larval survivorship, larval-to-adult development time, and adult body size are strongly dependent on larval density, and there is a significant interaction between populations and larval density for each trait. This manifests an inadequacy of the theory on r- and K-selection, which does not take into account such interactions between genotypes and environments. We describe mechanisms that may explain the evolution of preadult life-history traits in our experiment and discuss the need for changes in theories of density-dependent selection. © 1989 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Larval Population Density Alters Adult Sleep in Wild-Type Drosophila melanogaster but Not in Amnesiac Mutant Flies

PubMed Central

Chi, Michael W.; Griffith, Leslie C.; Vecsey, Christopher G.

2014-01-01

Sleep has many important biological functions, but how sleep is regulated remains poorly understood. In humans, social isolation and other stressors early in life can disrupt adult sleep. In fruit flies housed at different population densities during early adulthood, social enrichment was shown to increase subsequent sleep, but it is unknown if population density during early development can also influence adult sleep. To answer this question, we maintained Drosophila larvae at a range of population densities throughout larval development, kept them isolated during early adulthood, and then tested their sleep patterns. Our findings reveal that flies that had been isolated as larvae had more fragmented sleep than those that had been raised at higher population densities. This effect was more prominent in females than in males. Larval population density did not affect sleep in female flies that were mutant for amnesiac, which has been shown to be required for normal memory consolidation, adult sleep regulation, and brain development. In contrast, larval population density effects on sleep persisted in female flies lacking the olfactory receptor or83b, suggesting that olfactory signals are not required for the effects of larval population density on adult sleep. These findings show that population density during early development can alter sleep behavior in adulthood, suggesting that genetic and/or structural changes are induced by this developmental manipulation that persist through metamorphosis. PMID:25116571

Larval Population Density Alters Adult Sleep in Wild-Type Drosophila melanogaster but Not in Amnesiac Mutant Flies.

PubMed

Chi, Michael W; Griffith, Leslie C; Vecsey, Christopher G

2014-08-11

Sleep has many important biological functions, but how sleep is regulated remains poorly understood. In humans, social isolation and other stressors early in life can disrupt adult sleep. In fruit flies housed at different population densities during early adulthood, social enrichment was shown to increase subsequent sleep, but it is unknown if population density during early development can also influence adult sleep. To answer this question, we maintained Drosophila larvae at a range of population densities throughout larval development, kept them isolated during early adulthood, and then tested their sleep patterns. Our findings reveal that flies that had been isolated as larvae had more fragmented sleep than those that had been raised at higher population densities. This effect was more prominent in females than in males. Larval population density did not affect sleep in female flies that were mutant for amnesiac, which has been shown to be required for normal memory consolidation, adult sleep regulation, and brain development. In contrast, larval population density effects on sleep persisted in female flies lacking the olfactory receptor or83b, suggesting that olfactory signals are not required for the effects of larval population density on adult sleep. These findings show that population density during early development can alter sleep behavior in adulthood, suggesting that genetic and/or structural changes are induced by this developmental manipulation that persist through metamorphosis.

[Effect of the population density on growth and regeneration in the snail Achatina fulica].

PubMed

Sidel'nikov, A P; Stepanov, I I

2000-01-01

In the laboratory, the growth rate of the giant African snail Achatina fulica, as estimated by the weight and shell length was shown to decrease when the population density increased from 10 to 60 snails/m2 of the total terrarium area for five months. In the second experiment, when the population density increased from 48 to 193 snails/m2, the growth rate had already decreased by six weeks. In the groups with a high population density the feeding behavior was weakened, expressed by a greater amount of nonconsumed food, according to visual observations, than in the groups with lower population densities. At the population density of 10 to 60 snails/m2, the proliferative activity in the course of the optic tentacle regeneration, as expressed by the mitotic index, did not differ reliably within five months. In the second experiment, the mitotic indices at the population densities of 96 and 193 snails/m2 within 1.5 months exceeded that of 48 snails/m2. Recommendations are given concerning the population density from the viewpoint of commercial growth of the snails. It was proposed that, based on the analysis of the mechanism underlying the inhibition of feeding behavior in populations with extra high densities, one may develop a new approach to the production of chemical agents to control land snails as agricultural pests.

The association between ALS and population density: A population based study.

PubMed

Scott, Kirsten M; Abhinav, Kumar; Wijesekera, Lokesh; Ganesalingam, Jeban; Goldstein, Laura H; Janssen, Anna; Dougherty, Andrew; Willey, Emma; Stanton, Biba R; Turner, Martin R; Ampong, Mary-Ann; Sakel, Mohammed; Orrell, Richard; Howard, Robin; Shaw, Christopher E; Nigel Leigh, P; Al-Chalabi, Ammar

2010-10-01

We aimed to assess whether rural residence is associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the south-east of England using a population based register. Previous studies in different populations have produced contradictory findings. Residence defined by London borough or non-metropolitan district at time of diagnosis was recorded for each incident case in the South-East England ALS Register between 1995 and 2005. Each of the 26 boroughs or districts of the catchment area of the register was classified according to population density. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence of ALS was calculated for each region and the relationship with population density tested by linear regression, thereby controlling for the underlying population structure. We found that population density in region of residence at diagnosis explained 25% of the variance in ALS rates (r = 0.5, p < 0.01). Thus, in this cohort in the south-east of England, people with ALS were more likely to be resident in areas of high population density at diagnosis.

The association between ALS and population density: A population based study

PubMed Central

SCOTT, KIRSTEN M.; ABHINAV, KUMAR; WIJESEKERA, LOKESH; GANESALINGAM, JEBAN; GOLDSTEIN, LAURA H.; JANSSEN, ANNA; DOUGHERTY, ANDREW; WILLEY, EMMA; STANTON, BIBA R.; TURNER, MARTIN R.; AMPONG, MARY-ANN; SAKEL, MOHAMMED; ORRELL, RICHARD; HOWARD, ROBIN; SHAW, CHRISTOPHER E.; LEIGH, P. NIGEL; AL-CHALABI, AMMAR

2011-01-01

We aimed to assess whether rural residence is associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the south-east of England using a population based register. Previous studies in different populations have produced contradictory findings. Residence defined by London borough or non-metropolitan district at time of diagnosis was recorded for each incident case in the South-East England ALS Register between 1995 and 2005. Each of the 26 boroughs or districts of the catchment area of the register was classified according to population density. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence of ALS was calculated for each region and the relationship with population density tested by linear regression, thereby controlling for the underlying population structure. We found that population density in region of residence at diagnosis explained 25% of the variance in ALS rates (r = 0.5, p < 0.01). Thus, in this cohort in the south-east of England, people with ALS were more likely to be resident in areas of high population density at diagnosis. PMID:20429684

Living in isolation - population structure, reproduction, and genetic variation of the endangered plant species Dianthus gratianopolitanus (Cheddar pink).

PubMed

Putz, Christina M; Schmid, Christoph; Reisch, Christoph

2015-09-01

The endangered plant species Dianthus gratianopolitanus exhibits a highly fragmented distribution range comprising many isolated populations. Based upon this pattern of distribution, we selected a study region in Switzerland with a lower magnitude of isolation (Swiss Jura) and another study region in Germany with a higher degree of isolation (Franconian Jura). In each region, we chose ten populations to analyze population structure, reproduction, and genetic variation in a comparative approach. Therefore, we determined population density, cushion size, and cushion density to analyze population structure, investigated reproductive traits, including number of flowers, capsules, and germination rate, and analyzed amplified fragment length polymorphisms to study genetic variation. Population and cushion density were credibly higher in German than in Swiss populations, whereas reproductive traits and genetic variation within populations were similar in both study regions. However, genetic variation among populations and isolation by distance were stronger in Germany than in Switzerland. Generally, cushion size and density as well as flower and capsule production increased with population size and density, whereas genetic variation decreased with population density. In contrast to our assumptions, we observed denser populations and cushions in the region with the higher magnitude of isolation, whereas reproductive traits and genetic variation within populations were comparable in both regions. This corroborates the assumption that stronger isolation must not necessarily result in the loss of fitness and genetic variation. Furthermore, it supports our conclusion that the protection of strongly isolated populations contributes essentially to the conservation of a species' full evolutionary potential.

Fundamental population-productivity relationships can be modified through density-dependent feedbacks of life-history evolution.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-12-01

The evolution of life histories over contemporary time scales will almost certainly affect population demography. One important pathway for such eco-evolutionary interactions is the density-dependent regulation of population dynamics. Here, we investigate how fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) might alter density-dependent population-productivity relationships. To this end, we simulate the eco-evolutionary dynamics of an Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population under fishing, followed by a period of recovery in the absence of fishing. FIE is associated with increases in juvenile production, the ratio of juveniles to mature population biomass, and the ratio of the mature population biomass relative to the total population biomass. In contrast, net reproductive rate (R 0 ) and per capita population growth rate (r) decline concomitantly with evolution. Our findings suggest that FIE can substantially modify the fundamental population-productivity relationships that underlie density-dependent population regulation and that form the primary population-dynamical basis for fisheries stock-assessment projections. From a conservation and fisheries-rebuilding perspective, we find that FIE reduces R 0 and r, the two fundamental correlates of population recovery ability and inversely extinction probability.

42 CFR 505.5 - Loan criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... that meet the following criteria: (1) The hospital is located in a State that, based on population density, is defined as a rural State. A rural State is one of ten States with the lowest population... prioritized beginning with the State with the lowest population density. Population density is determined...

42 CFR 505.5 - Loan criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... that meet the following criteria: (1) The hospital is located in a State that, based on population density, is defined as a rural State. A rural State is one of ten States with the lowest population... prioritized beginning with the State with the lowest population density. Population density is determined...

42 CFR 505.5 - Loan criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... that meet the following criteria: (1) The hospital is located in a State that, based on population density, is defined as a rural State. A rural State is one of ten States with the lowest population... prioritized beginning with the State with the lowest population density. Population density is determined...

Potential misuse of avian density as a conservation metric

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.

2011-01-01

Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual- and population-level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density-independent and density-dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density-dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Density-Dependent Regulation of Brook Trout Population Dynamics along a Core-Periphery Distribution Gradient in a Central Appalachian Watershed

PubMed Central

Huntsman, Brock M.; Petty, J. Todd

2014-01-01

Spatial population models predict strong density-dependence and relatively stable population dynamics near the core of a species' distribution with increasing variance and importance of density-independent processes operating towards the population periphery. Using a 10-year data set and an information-theoretic approach, we tested a series of candidate models considering density-dependent and density-independent controls on brook trout population dynamics across a core-periphery distribution gradient within a central Appalachian watershed. We sampled seven sub-populations with study sites ranging in drainage area from 1.3–60 km2 and long-term average densities ranging from 0.335–0.006 trout/m. Modeled response variables included per capita population growth rate of young-of-the-year, adult, and total brook trout. We also quantified a stock-recruitment relationship for the headwater population and coefficients of variability in mean trout density for all sub-populations over time. Density-dependent regulation was prevalent throughout the study area regardless of stream size. However, density-independent temperature models carried substantial weight and likely reflect the effect of year-to-year variability in water temperature on trout dispersal between cold tributaries and warm main stems. Estimated adult carrying capacities decreased exponentially with increasing stream size from 0.24 trout/m in headwaters to 0.005 trout/m in the main stem. Finally, temporal variance in brook trout population size was lowest in the high-density headwater population, tended to peak in mid-sized streams and declined slightly in the largest streams with the lowest densities. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that local density-dependent processes have a strong control on brook trout dynamics across the entire distribution gradient. However, the mechanisms of regulation likely shift from competition for limited food and space in headwater streams to competition for thermal refugia in larger main stems. It also is likely that source-sink dynamics and dispersal from small headwater habitats may partially influence brook trout population dynamics in the main stem. PMID:24618602

Evolution of complex density-dependent dispersal strategies.

PubMed

Parvinen, Kalle; Seppänen, Anne; Nagy, John D

2012-11-01

The question of how dispersal behavior is adaptive and how it responds to changes in selection pressure is more relevant than ever, as anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change accelerate around the world. In metapopulation models where local populations are large, and thus local population size is measured in densities, density-dependent dispersal is expected to evolve to a single-threshold strategy, in which individuals stay in patches with local population density smaller than a threshold value and move immediately away from patches with local population density larger than the threshold. Fragmentation tends to convert continuous populations into metapopulations and also to decrease local population sizes. Therefore we analyze a metapopulation model, where each patch can support only a relatively small local population and thus experience demographic stochasticity. We investigated the evolution of density-dependent dispersal, emigration and immigration, in two scenarios: adult and natal dispersal. We show that density-dependent emigration can also evolve to a nonmonotone, "triple-threshold" strategy. This interesting phenomenon results from an interplay between the direct and indirect benefits of dispersal and the costs of dispersal. We also found that, compared to juveniles, dispersing adults may benefit more from density-dependent vs. density-independent dispersal strategies.

The role of Allee effects in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), invasions

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Christelle Robinet; Derek M. Johnson; Stefanie L. Whitmire; Ottar N. Bjornstad; Andrew M. Liebhold

2009-01-01

Allee effects have been applied historically in efforts to understand the low-density population dynamics of rare and endangered species. Many biological invasions likewise experience the phenomenon of decreasing population growth rates at low population densities because most founding populations of introduced nonnative species occur at low densities. In range...

Demonstration Report for Visual Sample Plan (VSP) Verification Sampling Methods at the Navy/DRI Site

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

population of 537,197 with an overall population density of 608 people per square mile (people/ mi2 ). However, the population density in the vicinity...Preliminary Assessment Findings  approximately 12 people/ mi2 . Population density is expected to greatly increase following development of the site

The role of density-dependent individual growth in the persistence of freshwater salmonid populations.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Crivelli, Alain J; Jesensek, Dusan; De Leo, Giulio A

2008-06-01

Theoretical and empirical models of populations dynamics have paid little attention to the implications of density-dependent individual growth on the persistence and regulation of small freshwater salmonid populations. We have therefore designed a study aimed at testing our hypothesis that density-dependent individual growth is a process that enhances population recovery and reduces extinction risk in salmonid populations in a variable environment subject to disturbance events. This hypothesis was tested in two newly introduced marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) populations living in Slovenian streams (Zakojska and Gorska) subject to severe autumn floods. We developed a discrete-time stochastic individual-based model of population dynamics for each population with demographic parameters and compensatory responses tightly calibrated on data from individually tagged marble trout. The occurrence of severe flood events causing population collapses was explicitly accounted for in the model. We used the model in a population viability analysis setting to estimate the quasi-extinction risk and demographic indexes of the two marble trout populations when individual growth was density-dependent. We ran a set of simulations in which the effect of floods on population abundance was explicitly accounted for and another set of simulations in which flood events were not included in the model. These simulation results were compared with those of scenarios in which individual growth was modelled with density-independent Von Bertalanffy growth curves. Our results show how density-dependent individual growth may confer remarkable resilience to marble trout populations in case of major flood events. The resilience to flood events shown by the simulation results can be explained by the increase in size-dependent fecundity as a consequence of the drop in population size after a severe flood, which allows the population to quickly recover to the pre-event conditions. Our results suggest that density-dependent individual growth plays a potentially powerful role in the persistence of freshwater salmonids living in streams subject to recurrent yet unpredictable flood events.

Effects of population density on corticosterone levels of prairie voles in the field

PubMed Central

Blondel, Dimitri V.; Wallace, Gerard N.; Calderone, Stefanie; Gorinshteyn, Marija; St. Mary, Colette M.; Phelps, Steven M.

2015-01-01

High population density is often associated with increased levels of stress-related hormones, such as corticosterone (CORT). Prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) are a socially monogamous species known for their large population density fluctuations in the wild. Although CORT influences the social behavior of prairie voles in the lab, the effect of population density on CORT has not previously been quantified in this species in the field. We validated a non-invasive hormone assay for measuring CORT metabolites in prairie vole feces. We then used semi-natural enclosures to experimentally manipulate population density, and measured density effects on male space use and fecal CORT levels. Our enclosures generated patterns of space use and social interaction that were consistent with previous prairie vole field studies. Contrary to the positive relationship between CORT and density typical of other taxa, we found that lower population densities (80 animals/ha) produced higher fecal CORT than high densities (240/ha). Combined with prior work in the lab and field, the data suggest that high prairie vole population densities indicate favorable environments, perhaps through reduced predation risk. Lastly, we found that field animals had lower fecal CORT levels than laboratory-living animals. The data emphasize the usefulness of prairie voles as models for integrating ecological, evolutionary and mechanistic questions in social behavior. PMID:26342968

Paradoxical effects of density on measurement of copper tolerance in Silene paradoxa L.

PubMed

Capuana, Maurizio; Colzi, Ilaria; Buccianti, Antonella; Coppi, Andrea; Palm, Emily; Del Bubba, Massimo; Gonnelli, Cristina

2018-01-01

This work investigated if the assessment of tolerance to trace metals can depend on plant density in the experimental design. A non-metallicolous and a metallicolous populations of Silene paradoxa were hydroponically cultivated at increasing density and in both the absence (-Cu conditions) and excess of copper (+Cu conditions). In -Cu conditions, the metallicolous population showed a lower susceptibility to plant density in comparison to the non-metallicolous one, explained by a higher capacity of the metallicolous population to exploit resources. In +Cu conditions, an alleviating effect of increasing density was found in roots. Such effect was present to a greater extent in the non-metallicolous population, thus making the populations equally copper-tolerant at the highest density used. In shoots, an additive effect of increasing plant density to copper toxicity was reported. Its higher intensity in the metallicolous population reverted the copper tolerance relationship at the highest plant densities used. In both populations, a density-induced decrease in root copper accumulation was observed, thus concurring to the reported mitigation in +Cu conditions. Our work revealed the importance of density studies on the optimization of eco-toxicological bioassays and of metal tolerance assessment and it can be considered the first example of an alleviating effect of increasing plant number on copper stress in a metallophyte.

Density-dependent selection on mate search and evolution of Allee effects.

PubMed

Berec, Luděk; Kramer, Andrew M; Bernhauerová, Veronika; Drake, John M

2018-01-01

Sexually reproducing organisms require males and females to find each other. Increased difficulty of females finding mates as male density declines is the most frequently reported mechanism of Allee effects in animals. Evolving more effective mate search may alleviate Allee effects, but may depend on density regimes a population experiences. In particular, high-density populations may evolve mechanisms that induce Allee effects which become detrimental when populations are reduced and maintained at a low density. We develop an individual-based, eco-genetic model to study how mating systems and fitness trade-offs interact with changes in population density to drive evolution of the rate at which males or females search for mates. Finite mate search rate triggers Allee effects in our model and we explore how these Allee effects respond to such evolution. We allow a population to adapt to several population density regimes and examine whether high-density populations are likely to reverse adaptations attained at low densities. We find density-dependent selection in most of scenarios, leading to search rates that result in lower Allee thresholds in populations kept at lower densities. This mainly occurs when fecundity costs are imposed on mate search, and provides an explanation for why Allee effects are often observed in anthropogenically rare species. Optimizing selection, where the attained trait value minimizes the Allee threshold independent of population density, depended on the trade-off between search and survival, combined with monogamy when females were searching. Other scenarios led to runaway selection on the mate search rate, including evolutionary suicide. Trade-offs involved in mate search may thus be crucial to determining how density influences the evolution of Allee effects. Previous studies did not examine evolution of a trait related to the strength of Allee effects under density variation. We emphasize the crucial role that mating systems, fitness trade-offs and the evolving sex have in determining the density threshold for population persistence, in particular since evolution need not always take the Allee threshold to its minimum value. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Productivity, biodiversity, and pathogens influence the global hunter-gatherer population density.

PubMed

Tallavaara, Miikka; Eronen, Jussi T; Luoto, Miska

2018-02-06

The environmental drivers of species distributions and abundances are at the core of ecological research. However, the effects of these drivers on human abundance are not well-known. Here, we report how net primary productivity, biodiversity, and pathogen stress affect human population density using global ethnographic hunter-gatherer data. Our results show that productivity has significant effects on population density globally. The most important direct drivers, however, depend on environmental conditions: biodiversity influences population density exclusively in low-productivity regions, whereas pathogen stress does so in high-productivity regions. Our results also indicate that subtropical and temperate forest biomes provide the highest carrying capacity for hunter-gatherer populations. These findings document that environmental factors play a key role in shaping global population density patterns of preagricultural humans.

Population density-dependent hair cortisol concentrations in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta)

PubMed Central

Dettmer, A.M.; Novak, M.A.; Meyer, J.S.; Suomi, S.J.

2014-01-01

Summary Population density is known to influence acute measures of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity in a variety of species, including fish, deer, birds, and humans. However, the effects of population density on levels of chronic stress are unknown. Given the fact that exposure to chronically elevated levels of circulating glucocorticoids results in a host of health disparities in animals and humans alike, it is important to understand how population density may impact chronic stress. We assessed hair cortisol concentrations (HCCs), which are reliable indicators of chronic HPA axis activity, in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) to determine the influence of population density on these values. In Experiment 1, we compared HCCs of monkeys living in high-density (HD; 1 monkey/0.87m2) and low-density (LD; 1 monkey/63.37m2) environments (N=236 hair samples) and found that HD monkeys exhibited higher hair cortisol across all age categories (infant, juvenile, young adult, adult, and aged) except infancy and aged (F(5)=4.240, p=0.001), for which differences were nearly significant. HD monkeys also received more severe fight wounds than LD monkeys (χ2=26.053, p<0.001), though no effects of dominance status emerged. In Experiment 2, we examined how HCCs change with fluctuating population levels across five years in the adult LD monkeys (N=155 hair samples) and found that increased population density was significantly positively correlated with HCCs in this semi-naturalistic population (r(s)=0.975, p=0.005). These are the first findings to demonstrate that increased population density is associated with increased chronic, endogenous glucocorticoid exposure in a nonhuman primate species. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to laboratory research, population ecology, and human epidemiology. PMID:24636502

Population density-dependent hair cortisol concentrations in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta).

PubMed

Dettmer, A M; Novak, M A; Meyer, J S; Suomi, S J

2014-04-01

Population density is known to influence acute measures of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity in a variety of species, including fish, deer, birds, and humans. However, the effects of population density on levels of chronic stress are unknown. Given the fact that exposure to chronically elevated levels of circulating glucocorticoids results in a host of health disparities in animals and humans alike, it is important to understand how population density may impact chronic stress. We assessed hair cortisol concentrations (HCCs), which are reliable indicators of chronic HPA axis activity, in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) to determine the influence of population density on these values. In Experiment 1, we compared HCCs of monkeys living in high-density (HD; 1 monkey/0.87m(2)) and low-density (LD; 1 monkey/63.37m(2)) environments (N=236 hair samples) and found that HD monkeys exhibited higher hair cortisol across all age categories (infant, juvenile, young adult, adult, and aged) except infancy and aged (F(5)=4.240, p=0.001), for which differences were nearly significant. HD monkeys also received more severe fight wounds than LD monkeys (χ(2)=26.053, p<0.001), though no effects of dominance status emerged. In Experiment 2, we examined how HCCs change with fluctuating population levels across 5 years in the adult LD monkeys (N=155 hair samples) and found that increased population density was significantly positively correlated with HCCs in this semi-naturalistic population (r(s)=0.975, p=0.005). These are the first findings to demonstrate that increased population density is associated with increased chronic, endogenous glucocorticoid exposure in a nonhuman primate species. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to laboratory research, population ecology, and human epidemiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Statistical analysis of suprathermal electron drivers at 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broiles, Thomas W.; Burch, J. L.; Chae, K.; Clark, G.; Cravens, T. E.; Eriksson, A.; Fuselier, S. A.; Frahm, R. A.; Gasc, S.; Goldstein, R.; Henri, P.; Koenders, C.; Livadiotis, G.; Mandt, K. E.; Mokashi, P.; Nemeth, Z.; Odelstad, E.; Rubin, M.; Samara, M.

2016-11-01

We use observations from the Ion and Electron Sensor (IES) on board the Rosetta spacecraft to study the relationship between the cometary suprathermal electrons and the drivers that affect their density and temperature. We fit the IES electron observations with the summation of two kappa distributions, which we characterize as a dense and warm population (˜10 cm-3 and ˜16 eV) and a rarefied and hot population (˜0.01 cm-3 and ˜43 eV). The parameters of our fitting technique determine the populations' density, temperature, and invariant kappa index. We focus our analysis on the warm population to determine its origin by comparing the density and temperature with the neutral density and magnetic field strength. We find that the warm electron population is actually two separate sub-populations: electron distributions with temperatures above 8.6 eV and electron distributions with temperatures below 8.6 eV. The two sub-populations have different relationships between their density and temperature. Moreover, the two sub-populations are affected by different drivers. The hotter sub-population temperature is strongly correlated with neutral density, while the cooler sub-population is unaffected by neutral density and is only weakly correlated with magnetic field strength. We suggest that the population with temperatures above 8.6 eV is being heated by lower hybrid waves driven by counterstreaming solar wind protons and newly formed, cometary ions created in localized, dense neutral streams. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first observations of cometary electrons heated through wave-particle interactions.

The many faces of population density.

PubMed

Mayor, Stephen J; Schaefer, James A

2005-09-01

Population density, one of the most fundamental demographic attributes, may vary systematically with spatial scale, but this scale-sensitivity is incompletely understood. We used a novel approach-based on fully censused and mapped distributions of eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) dreys, beaver (Castor canadensis) lodges, and moose (Alces alces)--to explore the scale-dependence of population density and its relationship to landscape features. We identified population units at several scales, both objectively, using cluster analysis, and arbitrarily, using artificial bounds centred on high-abundance sites. Densities declined with census area. For dreys, this relationship was stronger in objective versus arbitrary population units. Drey density was inconsistently related to patch area, a relationship that was positive for all patches but negative when non-occupied patches were excluded. Drey density was negatively related to the proportion of green-space and positively related to the density of buildings or roads, relationships that were accentuated at coarser scales. Mean drey densities were more sensitive to scale when calculated as organism-weighted versus area-weighted averages. Greater understanding of these scaling effects is required to facilitate comparisons of population density across studies.

Tourism in Austria: biodiversity, environmental sustainability, and growth issues.

PubMed

Malik, Muhammad Asad Saleem; Shah, Syed Asim; Zaman, Khalid

2016-12-01

This study examined the long-run and causal relationships between international tourism, biodiversity loss, environmental sustainability, and specific growth factors under the premises of sustainable tourism in Austria, by using a consistent time series data from 1975 to 2015. The results reveal that inbound tourism, per capita income, and population density affected the potential habitat area while population density largely affected the food production in a country. Inbound tourism and population density both deteriorate the environmental quality in a form of increasing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and fossil fuel energy consumption while per capita income reduces the fossil fuel energy consumption. Food exports increase per capita income, while food imports and population density both decrease economic growth. Inbound tourism and economic growth advance population density while forest area and food exports decrease the population density. The study supports growth-led tourism and growth-led food production in a country.

The integrative effects of population density, photoperiod, temperature, and host plant on the induction of alate aphids in Schizaphis graminum.

PubMed

An, Chunju; Fei, Xiaodong; Chen, Wenfeng; Zhao, Zhangwu

2012-04-01

The wheat aphid Schizaphis graminum (Rondani) displays wing dimorphism with both winged and wingless adult morphs. The winged morph is an adaptive microevolutionary response to undesirable environmental conditions, including undesirable population density, photoperiod, temperature, and host plant. Here we studied the integrative effects of population density, photoperiod, temperature, and host plant on the induction of alate aphids in S. graminum. The present results show that these four factors all play roles in inducing alate aphids in S. graminum but population density is the most important under almost all circumstances. In importance, population density is followed by photoperiod, host plant, and temperature, in that order. These results indicate that ambient environmental factors are highly important to stimulation of alate aphids in S. graminum, especially when population density reaches 64 individuals per leaf. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Experimental evolution reveals differences between phenotypic and evolutionary responses to population density.

PubMed

McNamara, K B; Simmons, L W

2017-09-01

Group living can select for increased immunity, given the heightened risk of parasite transmission. Yet, it also may select for increased male reproductive investment, given the elevated risk of female multiple mating. Trade-offs between immunity and reproduction are well documented. Phenotypically, population density mediates both reproductive investment and immune function in the Indian meal moth, Plodia interpunctella. However, the evolutionary response of populations to these traits is unknown. We created two replicated populations of P. interpunctella, reared and mated for 14 generations under high or low population densities. These population densities cause plastic responses in immunity and reproduction: at higher numbers, both sexes invest more in one index of immunity [phenoloxidase (PO) activity] and males invest more in sperm. Interestingly, our data revealed divergence in PO and reproduction in a different direction to previously reported phenotypic responses. Males evolving at low population densities transferred more sperm, and both males and females displayed higher PO than individuals at high population densities. These positively correlated responses to selection suggest no apparent evolutionary trade-off between immunity and reproduction. We speculate that the reduced PO activity and sperm investment when evolving under high population density may be due to the reduced population fitness predicted under increased sexual conflict and/or to trade-offs between pre- and post-copulatory traits. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA.

PubMed

Hixson, Mark; Mahmud, Abdullah; Hu, Jianlin; Kleeman, Michael J

2012-05-01

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).

Relationships between population density, fine-scale genetic structure, mating system and pollen dispersal in a timber tree from African rainforests.

PubMed

Duminil, J; Daïnou, K; Kaviriri, D K; Gillet, P; Loo, J; Doucet, J-L; Hardy, O J

2016-03-01

Owing to the reduction of population density and/or the environmental changes it induces, selective logging could affect the demography, reproductive biology and evolutionary potential of forest trees. This is particularly relevant in tropical forests where natural population densities can be low and isolated trees may be subject to outcross pollen limitation and/or produce low-quality selfed seeds that exhibit inbreeding depression. Comparing reproductive biology processes and genetic diversity of populations at different densities can provide indirect evidence of the potential impacts of logging. Here, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity, mating system and gene flow in three Central African populations of the self-compatible legume timber species Erythrophleum suaveolens with contrasting densities (0.11, 0.68 and 1.72 adults per ha). The comparison of inbreeding levels among cohorts suggests that selfing is detrimental as inbred individuals are eliminated between seedling and adult stages. Levels of genetic diversity, selfing rates (∼16%) and patterns of spatial genetic structure (Sp ∼0.006) were similar in all three populations. However, the extent of gene dispersal differed markedly among populations: the average distance of pollen dispersal increased with decreasing density (from 200 m in the high-density population to 1000 m in the low-density one). Overall, our results suggest that the reproductive biology and genetic diversity of the species are not affected by current logging practices. However, further investigations need to be conducted in low-density populations to evaluate (1) whether pollen limitation may reduce seed production and (2) the regeneration potential of the species.

Inter-Population Variability of Endosymbiont Densities in the Asian Citrus Psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama).

PubMed

Chu, Chia-Ching; Gill, Torrence A; Hoffmann, Mark; Pelz-Stelinski, Kirsten S

2016-05-01

The Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) is an insect pest capable of transmitting Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas), the causal agent of citrus greening in North America. D. citri also harbors three endosymbionts, Wolbachia, Candidatus Carsonella ruddii, and Candidatus Profftella armatura, which may influence D. citri physiology and fitness. Although genomic researches on these bacteria have been conducted, much remains unclear regarding their ecology and inter-population variability in D. citri. The present work examined the densities of each endosymbiont in adult D. citri sampled from different populations using quantitative PCR. Under field conditions, the densities of all three endosymbionts positively correlated with each other, and they are associated with D. citri gender and locality. In addition, the infection density of CLas also varied across populations. Although an analysis pooling D. citri from different populations showed that CLas-infected individuals tended to have lower endosymbiont densities compared to uninfected individuals, the difference was not significant when the population was included as a factor in the analysis, suggesting that other population-specific factors may have stronger effects on endosymbiont densities. To determine whether there is a genetic basis to the density differences, endosymbiont densities between aged CLas-negative females of two D. citri populations reared under standardized laboratory conditions were compared. Results suggested that inter-population variability in Wolbachia infection density is associated with the genotypes of the endosymbiont or the host. Findings from this work could facilitate understanding of D. citri-bacterial associations that may benefit the development of approaches for managing citrus greening, such as prevention of CLas transmission.

Using Population Density and Size Class Frequency to Identify Recruitment Limitation and Saturation in Shellfishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.

2016-02-01

Many fisheries are threatened due to overfishing, changing climate, and anthropogenic activities. Benthic marine organisms can be especially vulnerable to these pressures because of their inability to flee, and some of these organisms comprise the most threatened fisheries. Providing predictive tools to managers is key to reestablishing populations and sustainability in threatened or crashed fisheries. Here we examine the demographics of Cellana spp., culturally and culinarily important intertidal shellfishes in Hawai'i, in populations that are naturally recruitment limited and those that are recruitment saturated. We focus on variation in two demographic parameters: population density and size class frequency. From 2009 to 2015, yearly transect surveys were conducted on four isolated and uninhabited islands within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM), a massive marine protected area. Two islands exhibit classic signs of recruitment limitation with several absent intertidal species and low population densities while two larger islands have a relative abundance of species and high population densities. The population density of C. exarata in the recruitment-saturated populations exhibit much higher variability, than in the recruitment-limited populations, that is driven by a massive recruitment peak in May-June. An inverted age pyramid characterized the recruitment-limited populations, which display a more stable adult-dominated population. The recruitment-saturated populations were characterized by a traditional age pyramid, which exhibit a less stable juvenile-dominated population. These results are being used to model and predict population dynamics in the intensely harvested populations of the main Hawaiian Islands for the purposes of management decision-making.

Percolation threshold determines the optimal population density for public cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2012-03-01

While worldwide census data provide statistical evidence that firmly link the population density with several indicators of social welfare, the precise mechanisms underlying these observations are largely unknown. Here we study the impact of population density on the evolution of public cooperation in structured populations and find that the optimal density is uniquely related to the percolation threshold of the host graph irrespective of its topological details. We explain our observations by showing that spatial reciprocity peaks in the vicinity of the percolation threshold, when the emergence of a giant cooperative cluster is hindered neither by vacancy nor by invading defectors, thus discovering an intuitive yet universal law that links the population density with social prosperity.

Disentangling density-dependent dynamics using full annual cycle models and Bayesian model weight updating

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Orin J.; McGowan, Conor P.; Devers, Patrick K.

2017-01-01

Density dependence regulates populations of many species across all taxonomic groups. Understanding density dependence is vital for predicting the effects of climate, habitat loss and/or management actions on wild populations. Migratory species likely experience seasonal changes in the relative influence of density dependence on population processes such as survival and recruitment throughout the annual cycle. These effects must be accounted for when characterizing migratory populations via population models.To evaluate effects of density on seasonal survival and recruitment of a migratory species, we used an existing full annual cycle model framework for American black ducks Anas rubripes, and tested different density effects (including no effects) on survival and recruitment. We then used a Bayesian model weight updating routine to determine which population model best fit observed breeding population survey data between 1990 and 2014.The models that best fit the survey data suggested that survival and recruitment were affected by density dependence and that density effects were stronger on adult survival during the breeding season than during the non-breeding season.Analysis also suggests that regulation of survival and recruitment by density varied over time. Our results showed that different characterizations of density regulations changed every 8–12 years (three times in the 25-year period) for our population.Synthesis and applications. Using a full annual cycle, modelling framework and model weighting routine will be helpful in evaluating density dependence for migratory species in both the short and long term. We used this method to disentangle the seasonal effects of density on the continental American black duck population which will allow managers to better evaluate the effects of habitat loss and potential habitat management actions throughout the annual cycle. The method here may allow researchers to hone in on the proper form and/or strength of density dependence for use in models for conservation recommendations.

Potential misuse of avian density as a conservation metric.

PubMed

Skagen, Susan K; Yackel Adams, Amy A

2011-02-01

Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual- and population-level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density-independent and density-dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density-dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels. Journal compilation ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Influences of population density on polyandry and patterns of sperm usage in the marine gastropod Rapana venosa.

PubMed

Xue, Dong-Xiu; Zhang, Tao; Liu, Jin-Xian

2016-03-21

Polyandry is a common mating strategy in animals, with potential for sexual selection to continue post-copulation through sperm competition and/or cryptic female choice. Few studies have investigated the influences of population density on polyandry and sperm usage, and paternity distribution in successive broods of marine invertebrates. The marine gastropod Rapana venosa is ideal for investigating how population density influences the frequency of polyandry and elucidating patterns of sperm usage. Two different population density (12 ind/m(3) and 36 ind/m(3)) treatments with two replications were set to observe reproductive behaviors. Five microsatellite markers were used to identify the frequency of multiple paternity and determine paternal contributions to progeny arrays in 120 egg masses. All of the mean mating frequency, mean number of sires and mean egg-laying frequency were higher at high population density treatment relative to low population density treatment, indicating population density is an important factor affecting polyandry. The last sperm donors achieved high proportions of paternity in 74.77% of egg masses, which supported the "last male sperm precedence" hypothesis. In addition, high variance in reproductive success among R. venosa males were detected, which might have an important influence on effective population size.

Influences of population density on polyandry and patterns of sperm usage in the marine gastropod Rapana venosa

PubMed Central

Xue, Dong-Xiu; Zhang, Tao; Liu, Jin-Xian

2016-01-01

Polyandry is a common mating strategy in animals, with potential for sexual selection to continue post-copulation through sperm competition and/or cryptic female choice. Few studies have investigated the influences of population density on polyandry and sperm usage, and paternity distribution in successive broods of marine invertebrates. The marine gastropod Rapana venosa is ideal for investigating how population density influences the frequency of polyandry and elucidating patterns of sperm usage. Two different population density (12 ind/m3 and 36 ind/m3) treatments with two replications were set to observe reproductive behaviors. Five microsatellite markers were used to identify the frequency of multiple paternity and determine paternal contributions to progeny arrays in 120 egg masses. All of the mean mating frequency, mean number of sires and mean egg-laying frequency were higher at high population density treatment relative to low population density treatment, indicating population density is an important factor affecting polyandry. The last sperm donors achieved high proportions of paternity in 74.77% of egg masses, which supported the “last male sperm precedence” hypothesis. In addition, high variance in reproductive success among R. venosa males were detected, which might have an important influence on effective population size. PMID:26996441

Experimental Examination of Intraspecific Density-Dependent Competition during the Breeding Period in Monarch Butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

PubMed Central

Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Martin, Tara G.; Norris, D. Ryan

2012-01-01

A central goal of population ecology is to identify the factors that regulate population growth. Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America re-colonize the breeding range over several generations that result in population densities that vary across space and time during the breeding season. We used laboratory experiments to measure the strength of density-dependent intraspecific competition on egg laying rate and larval survival and then applied our results to density estimates of wild monarch populations to model the strength of density dependence during the breeding season. Egg laying rates did not change with density but larvae at high densities were smaller, had lower survival, and weighed less as adults compared to lower densities. Using mean larval densities from field surveys resulted in conservative estimates of density-dependent population reduction that varied between breeding regions and different phases of the breeding season. Our results suggest the highest levels of population reduction due to density-dependent intraspecific competition occur early in the breeding season in the southern portion of the breeding range. However, we also found that the strength of density dependence could be almost five times higher depending on how many life-stages were used as part of field estimates. Our study is the first to link experimental results of a density-dependent reduction in vital rates to observed monarch densities in the wild and show that the effects of density dependent competition in monarchs varies across space and time, providing valuable information for developing robust, year-round population models in this migratory organism. PMID:22984614

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes.

PubMed

Barneche, D R; Kulbicki, M; Floeter, S R; Friedlander, A M; Allen, A P

2016-01-27

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. © 2016 The Author(s).

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes

PubMed Central

Barneche, D. R.; Kulbicki, M.; Floeter, S. R.; Friedlander, A. M.; Allen, A. P.

2016-01-01

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. PMID:26791611

Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Gamelon, Marlène; Grøtan, Vidar; Nilsson, Anna L. K.; Engen, Steinar; Hurrell, James W.; Jerstad, Kurt; Phillips, Adam S.; Røstad, Ole W.; Slagsvold, Tore; Walseng, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils C.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-01-01

Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions. PMID:28164157

Determinants of pika population density vs. occupancy in the Southern Rocky Mountains.

PubMed

Erb, Liesl P; Ray, Chris; Guralnick, Robert

2014-04-01

Species distributions are responding rapidly to global change. While correlative studies of local extinction have been vital to understanding the ecological impacts of global change, more mechanistic lines of inquiry are needed for enhanced forecasting. The current study assesses whether the predictors of local extinction also explain population density for a species apparently impacted by climate change. We tested a suite of climatic and habitat metrics as predictors of American pika (Ochotona princeps) relative population density in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Population density was indexed as the density of pika latrine sites. Negative binomial regression and AICc showed that the best predictors of pika latrine density were patch area followed by two measures of vegetation quality: the diversity and relative cover of forbs. In contrast with previous studies of habitat occupancy in the Southern Rockies, climatic factors were not among the top predictors of latrine density. Populations may be buffered from decline and ultimately from extirpation at sites with high-quality vegetation. Conversely, populations at highest risk for declining density and extirpation are likely to be those in sites with poor-quality vegetation.

Thermal and energetic constraints on ectotherm abundance: A global test using lizards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, L.B.; Rodda, G.H.; Jetz, W.

2008-01-01

Population densities of birds and mammals have been shown to decrease with body mass at approximately the same rate as metabolic rates increase, indicating that energetic needs constrain endotherm population densities. In ectotherms, the exponential increase of metabolic rate with body temperature suggests that environmental temperature may additionally constrain population densities. Here we test simple bioenergetic models for an ecologically important group of ectothermic vertebrates by examining 483 lizard populations. We find that lizard population densities decrease as a power law of body mass with a slope approximately inverse to the slope of the relationship between metabolic rates and body mass. Energy availability should limit population densities. As predicted, environmental productivity has a positive effect on lizard density, strengthening the relationship between lizard density and body mass. In contrast, the effect of environmental temperature is at most weak due to behavioral thermoregulation, thermal evolution, or the temperature dependence of ectotherm performance. Our results provide initial insights into how energy needs and availability differentially constrain ectotherm and endotherm density across broad spatial scales. ?? 2008 by the Ecological Society of America.

Thermal and energetic constraints on ectotherm abundance: a global test using lizards.

PubMed

Buckley, Lauren B; Rodda, Gordon H; Jetz, Walter

2008-01-01

Population densities of birds and mammals have been shown to decrease with body mass at approximately the same rate as metabolic rates increase, indicating that energetic needs constrain endotherm population densities. In ectotherms, the exponential increase of metabolic rate with body temperature suggests that environmental temperature may additionally constrain population densities. Here we test simple bioenergetic models for an ecologically important group of ectothermic vertebrates by examining 483 lizard populations. We find that lizard population densities decrease as a power law of body mass with a slope approximately inverse to the slope of the relationship between metabolic rates and body mass. Energy availability should limit population densities. As predicted, environmental productivity has a positive effect on lizard density, strengthening the relationship between lizard density and body mass. In contrast, the effect of environmental temperature is at most weak due to behavioral thermoregulation, thermal evolution, or the temperature dependence of ectotherm performance. Our results provide initial insights into how energy needs and availability differentially constrain ectotherm and endotherm density across broad spatial scales.

Effect of high density on the short term Calomys musculinus spacing behaviour: A fencing experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommaro, Lucía V.; Steinmann, Andrea R.; Chiappero, Marina B.; Priotto, José W.

2010-05-01

We studied the short term spacing behavioural responses of corn mice ( Calomys musculinus) with regard to population density in four 0.25 ha enclosures (two control and two experimental) in the 2007 breeding season. The goal of this research was to test the hypothesis that spacing behaviour only operates among C. musculinus adult females. We estimated 207 home ranges to study: 1) the home range size and the overlap degree of adult males and females in relation to population density; 2) the settlement distances of juveniles to the centre of activity of their mothers and the home range overlap proportion between them and their mothers in relation to population density. We found that home range size and overlap degree in C. musculinus adults were determined by sex and density. At high population density males had significant smaller and more exclusive home ranges, and this might reflect induced territoriality derived from social restrictions. Female home range sizes remained similar irrespective of population density, and they kept exclusive home ranges in both control and experimental enclosures. Thus, females maintained their territories independent of the population density values. The settlement distances of juveniles from their mothers and the overlap proportion between them and their mothers were independent of population density. We conclude that spacing behaviour only operates among C. musculinus adult females and it could have a role in regulating population abundances limiting the number of females that acquire breeding spaces.

Effects of population density on corticosterone levels of prairie voles in the field.

PubMed

Blondel, Dimitri V; Wallace, Gerard N; Calderone, Stefanie; Gorinshteyn, Marija; St Mary, Colette M; Phelps, Steven M

2016-01-01

High population density is often associated with increased levels of stress-related hormones, such as corticosterone (CORT). Prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) are a socially monogamous species known for their large population density fluctuations in the wild. Although CORT influences the social behavior of prairie voles in the lab, the effect of population density on CORT has not previously been quantified in this species in the field. We validated a non-invasive hormone assay for measuring CORT metabolites in prairie vole feces. We then used semi-natural enclosures to experimentally manipulate population density, and measured density effects on male space use and fecal CORT levels. Our enclosures generated patterns of space use and social interaction that were consistent with previous prairie vole field studies. Contrary to the positive relationship between CORT and density typical of other taxa, we found that lower population densities (80 animals/ha) produced higher fecal CORT than higher densities (240/ha). Combined with prior work in the lab and field, the data suggest that high prairie vole population densities indicate favorable environments, perhaps through reduced predation risk. Lastly, we found that field animals had lower fecal CORT levels than laboratory-living animals. The data emphasize the usefulness of prairie voles as models for integrating ecological, evolutionary, and mechanistic questions in social behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Change-in-ratio density estimator for feral pigs is less biased than closed mark-recapture estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Mitchell, M.S.; Jolley, D.B.; Sparklin, B.D.; Ditchkoff, S.S.

2008-01-01

Closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods can produce biased density estimates for species with low or heterogeneous detection probabilities. In an attempt to address such biases, we developed a density-estimation method based on the change in ratio (CIR) of survival between two populations where survival, calculated using an open-population CMR model, is known to differ. We used our method to estimate density for a feral pig (Sus scrofa) population on Fort Benning, Georgia, USA. To assess its validity, we compared it to an estimate of the minimum density of pigs known to be alive and two estimates based on closed-population CMR models. Comparison of the density estimates revealed that the CIR estimator produced a density estimate with low precision that was reasonable with respect to minimum known density. By contrast, density point estimates using the closed-population CMR models were less than the minimum known density, consistent with biases created by low and heterogeneous capture probabilities for species like feral pigs that may occur in low density or are difficult to capture. Our CIR density estimator may be useful for tracking broad-scale, long-term changes in species, such as large cats, for which closed CMR models are unlikely to work. ?? CSIRO 2008.

Nutritional Differences between Two Orangutan Habitats: Implications for Population Density.

PubMed

Vogel, Erin R; Harrison, Mark E; Zulfa, Astri; Bransford, Timothy D; Alavi, Shauhin E; Husson, Simon; Morrogh-Bernard, Helen; Santiano; Firtsman, Twentinolosa; Utami-Atmoko, Sri Suci; van Noordwijk, Maria A; Farida, Wartika Rosa

2015-01-01

Bottom-up regulatory factors have been proposed to exert a strong influence on mammalian population density. Studies relating habitat quality to population density have typically made comparisons among distant species or communities without considering variation in food quality among localities. We compared dietary nutritional quality of two Bornean orangutan populations with differing population densities in peatland habitats, Tuanan and Sabangau, separated by 63 km. We hypothesized that because Tuanan is alluvial, the plant species included in the orangutan diet would be of higher nutritional quality compared to Sabangau, resulting in higher daily caloric intake in Tuanan. We also predicted that forest productivity would be greater in Tuanan compared to Sabangau. In support of these hypotheses, the overall quality of the diet and the quality of matched dietary items were higher in Tuanan, resulting in higher daily caloric intake compared to Sabangau. These differences in dietary nutritional quality may provide insights into why orangutan population density is almost two times greater in Tuanan compared to Sabangau, in agreement with a potentially important influence of diet quality on primate population density.

Nutritional Differences between Two Orangutan Habitats: Implications for Population Density

PubMed Central

Vogel, Erin R.; Harrison, Mark E.; Zulfa, Astri; Bransford, Timothy D.; Alavi, Shauhin E.; Husson, Simon; Morrogh-Bernard, Helen; Santiano; Firtsman, Twentinolosa; Utami-Atmoko, Sri Suci; van Noordwijk, Maria A.; Farida, Wartika Rosa

2015-01-01

Bottom-up regulatory factors have been proposed to exert a strong influence on mammalian population density. Studies relating habitat quality to population density have typically made comparisons among distant species or communities without considering variation in food quality among localities. We compared dietary nutritional quality of two Bornean orangutan populations with differing population densities in peatland habitats, Tuanan and Sabangau, separated by 63 km. We hypothesized that because Tuanan is alluvial, the plant species included in the orangutan diet would be of higher nutritional quality compared to Sabangau, resulting in higher daily caloric intake in Tuanan. We also predicted that forest productivity would be greater in Tuanan compared to Sabangau. In support of these hypotheses, the overall quality of the diet and the quality of matched dietary items were higher in Tuanan, resulting in higher daily caloric intake compared to Sabangau. These differences in dietary nutritional quality may provide insights into why orangutan population density is almost two times greater in Tuanan compared to Sabangau, in agreement with a potentially important influence of diet quality on primate population density. PMID:26466370

Social and Demographic Effects of Anthropogenic Mortality: A Test of the Compensatory Mortality Hypothesis in the Red Wolf

PubMed Central

Sparkman, Amanda M.; Waits, Lisette P.; Murray, Dennis L.

2011-01-01

Whether anthropogenic mortality is additive or compensatory to natural mortality in animal populations has long been a question of theoretical and practical importance. Theoretically, under density-dependent conditions populations compensate for anthropogenic mortality through decreases in natural mortality and/or increases in productivity, but recent studies of large carnivores suggest that anthropogenic mortality can be fully additive to natural mortality and thereby constrain annual survival and population growth rate. Nevertheless, mechanisms underlying either compensatory or additive effects continue to be poorly understood. Using long-term data on a reintroduced population of the red wolf, we tested for evidence of additive vs. compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality on annual survival and population growth rates, and the preservation and reproductive success of breeding pairs. We found that anthropogenic mortality had a strong additive effect on annual survival and population growth rate at low population density, though there was evidence for compensation in population growth at high density. When involving the death of a breeder, anthropogenic mortality was also additive to natural rates of breeding pair dissolution, resulting in a net decrease in the annual preservation of existing breeding pairs. However, though the disbanding of a pack following death of a breeder resulted in fewer recruits per litter relative to stable packs, there was no relationship between natural rates of pair dissolution and population growth rate at either high or low density. Thus we propose that short-term additive effects of anthropogenic mortality on population growth in the red wolf population at low density were primarily a result of direct mortality of adults rather than indirect socially-mediated effects resulting in reduced recruitment. Finally, we also demonstrate that per capita recruitment and the proportion of adults that became reproductive declined steeply with increasing population density, suggesting that there is potential for density-dependent compensation of anthropogenically-mediated population regulation. PMID:21738589

Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

PubMed

Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

2007-06-01

Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

Density Dependent Functional Forms Drive Compensation in Populations Exposed to Stressors

EPA Science Inventory

The interaction between density dependence (DD) and environmental stressors can result in a compensatory or synergistic response in population growth, and population models that use density-independent demographic rates or generic DD functions may be introducing bias into managem...

Relationships between population density, fine-scale genetic structure, mating system and pollen dispersal in a timber tree from African rainforests

PubMed Central

Duminil, J; Daïnou, K; Kaviriri, D K; Gillet, P; Loo, J; Doucet, J-L; Hardy, O J

2016-01-01

Owing to the reduction of population density and/or the environmental changes it induces, selective logging could affect the demography, reproductive biology and evolutionary potential of forest trees. This is particularly relevant in tropical forests where natural population densities can be low and isolated trees may be subject to outcross pollen limitation and/or produce low-quality selfed seeds that exhibit inbreeding depression. Comparing reproductive biology processes and genetic diversity of populations at different densities can provide indirect evidence of the potential impacts of logging. Here, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity, mating system and gene flow in three Central African populations of the self-compatible legume timber species Erythrophleum suaveolens with contrasting densities (0.11, 0.68 and 1.72 adults per ha). The comparison of inbreeding levels among cohorts suggests that selfing is detrimental as inbred individuals are eliminated between seedling and adult stages. Levels of genetic diversity, selfing rates (∼16%) and patterns of spatial genetic structure (Sp ∼0.006) were similar in all three populations. However, the extent of gene dispersal differed markedly among populations: the average distance of pollen dispersal increased with decreasing density (from 200 m in the high-density population to 1000 m in the low-density one). Overall, our results suggest that the reproductive biology and genetic diversity of the species are not affected by current logging practices. However, further investigations need to be conducted in low-density populations to evaluate (1) whether pollen limitation may reduce seed production and (2) the regeneration potential of the species. PMID:26696137

Density-dependent natal dispersal patterns in a leopard population recovering from over-harvest.

PubMed

Fattebert, Julien; Balme, Guy; Dickerson, Tristan; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke

2015-01-01

Natal dispersal enables population connectivity, gene flow and metapopulation dynamics. In polygynous mammals, dispersal is typically male-biased. Classically, the 'mate competition', 'resource competition' and 'resident fitness' hypotheses predict density-dependent dispersal patterns, while the 'inbreeding avoidance' hypothesis posits density-independent dispersal. In a leopard (Panthera pardus) population recovering from over-harvest, we investigated the effect of sex, population density and prey biomass, on age of natal dispersal, distance dispersed, probability of emigration and dispersal success. Over an 11-year period, we tracked 35 subadult leopards using VHF and GPS telemetry. Subadult leopards initiated dispersal at 13.6 ± 0.4 months. Age at commencement of dispersal was positively density-dependent. Although males (11.0 ± 2.5 km) generally dispersed further than females (2.7 ± 0.4 km), some males exhibited opportunistic philopatry when the population was below capacity. All 13 females were philopatric, while 12 of 22 males emigrated. Male dispersal distance and emigration probability followed a quadratic relationship with population density, whereas female dispersal distance was inversely density-dependent. Eight of 12 known-fate females and 5 of 12 known-fate male leopards were successful in settling. Dispersal success did not vary with population density, prey biomass, and for males, neither between dispersal strategies (philopatry vs. emigration). Females formed matrilineal kin clusters, supporting the resident fitness hypothesis. Conversely, mate competition appeared the main driver for male leopard dispersal. We demonstrate that dispersal patterns changed over time, i.e. as the leopard population density increased. We conclude that conservation interventions that facilitated local demographic recovery in the study area also restored dispersal patterns disrupted by unsustainable harvesting, and that this indirectly improved connectivity among leopard populations over a larger landscape.

Density-Dependent Natal Dispersal Patterns in a Leopard Population Recovering from Over-Harvest

PubMed Central

Fattebert, Julien; Balme, Guy; Dickerson, Tristan; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke

2015-01-01

Natal dispersal enables population connectivity, gene flow and metapopulation dynamics. In polygynous mammals, dispersal is typically male-biased. Classically, the ‘mate competition’, ‘resource competition’ and ‘resident fitness’ hypotheses predict density-dependent dispersal patterns, while the ‘inbreeding avoidance’ hypothesis posits density-independent dispersal. In a leopard (Panthera pardus) population recovering from over-harvest, we investigated the effect of sex, population density and prey biomass, on age of natal dispersal, distance dispersed, probability of emigration and dispersal success. Over an 11-year period, we tracked 35 subadult leopards using VHF and GPS telemetry. Subadult leopards initiated dispersal at 13.6 ± 0.4 months. Age at commencement of dispersal was positively density-dependent. Although males (11.0 ± 2.5 km) generally dispersed further than females (2.7 ± 0.4 km), some males exhibited opportunistic philopatry when the population was below capacity. All 13 females were philopatric, while 12 of 22 males emigrated. Male dispersal distance and emigration probability followed a quadratic relationship with population density, whereas female dispersal distance was inversely density-dependent. Eight of 12 known-fate females and 5 of 12 known-fate male leopards were successful in settling. Dispersal success did not vary with population density, prey biomass, and for males, neither between dispersal strategies (philopatry vs. emigration). Females formed matrilineal kin clusters, supporting the resident fitness hypothesis. Conversely, mate competition appeared the main driver for male leopard dispersal. We demonstrate that dispersal patterns changed over time, i.e. as the leopard population density increased. We conclude that conservation interventions that facilitated local demographic recovery in the study area also restored dispersal patterns disrupted by unsustainable harvesting, and that this indirectly improved connectivity among leopard populations over a larger landscape. PMID:25875293

Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population

PubMed Central

Sofaer, Helen R; Sillett, T Scott; Langin, Kathryn M; Morrison, Scott A; Ghalambor, Cameron K

2014-01-01

Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong. PMID:25077023

Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Sillett, T Scott; Langin, Kathryn M; Morrison, Scott A; Ghalambor, Cameron K

2014-07-01

Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong.

Local density regulates migratory songbird reproductive success through effects on double-brooding and nest predation.

PubMed

Woodworth, Bradley K; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T; Newman, Amy E M; Norris, D Ryan

2017-08-01

Knowledge of the density-dependent processes that regulate animal populations is key to understanding, predicting, and conserving populations. In migratory birds, density-dependence is most often studied during the breeding season, yet we still lack a robust understanding of the reproductive traits through which density influences individual reproductive success. We used 27-yr of detailed, individual-level productivity data from an island-breeding population of Savannah sparrows Passerculus sandwichensis to evaluate effects of local and total annual population density on female reproductive success. Local density (number of neighbors within 50 m of a female's nest) had stronger effects on the number of young fledged than did total annual population density. Females nesting in areas of high local density were more likely to suffer nest predation and less likely to initiate and fledge a second clutch, which led to fewer young fledged in a season. Fledging fewer young subsequently decreased the likelihood of a female recruiting offspring into the breeding population in a subsequent year. Collectively, these results provide insight into the scale and reproductive mechanisms mediating density-dependent reproductive success and fitness in songbirds. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

2013-01-01

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Forage selection by mule deer: does niche breadth increase with population density.

Treesearch

M.C. Nicholson; R.T. Bowyer; J.G. Kie

2006-01-01

Effects of population density of mule deer Odocoileus hemionus on forage selection were investigated by comparing diet characteristics of two subpopulations of deer in southern California, USA, that differed in population density during winter. Quality of diet for deer, as indexed by faecal crude protein, was higher at the low-density site than at...

Physiological proteins in resource-limited herbivores experiencing a population die-off

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garnier, R.; Bento, A. I.; Hansen, C.; Pilkington, J. G.; Pemberton, J. M.; Graham, A. L.

2017-08-01

Nutrient availability is predicted to interact with herbivore population densities. Competition for low quality food at high density may reduce summer food intake, and in turn winter survival. Conversely, low population density may favor physiological recovery through better access to better quality spring forage. Here, we take advantage of the long-term study of the Soay sheep population of St. Kilda (Scotland) to measure plasma protein markers and immunity in two consecutive summers with contrasting population densities. We show that, following a winter die-off resulting in a shift to low population density, albumin and total proteins increased, but only in adult sheep. The effect was not solely attributable to selective disappearance of malnourished sheep. Similarly, the concentration of antibodies was higher following the die-off, potentially indicating recovery of immune function. Overall, our results are consistent with the physiological recovery of surviving individuals after a harsh winter.

Population density predicts outcome from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Nehme, Ziad; Andrew, Emily; Cameron, Peter A; Bray, Janet E; Bernard, Stephen A; Meredith, Ian T; Smith, Karen

2014-05-05

To examine the impact of population density on incidence and outcome of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Data were extracted from the Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Registry for all adult OHCA cases of presumed cardiac aetiology attended by the emergency medical service (EMS) between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2011. Cases were allocated into one of five population density groups according to their statistical local area: very low density (≤ 10 people/km(2)), low density (11-200 people/km(2)), medium density (201-1000 people/km(2)), high density (1001-3000 people/km(2)), and very high density (> 3000 people/km(2)). Survival to hospital and survival to hospital discharge. The EMS attended 27 705 adult presumed cardiac OHCA cases across 204 Victorian regions. In 12 007 of these (43.3%), resuscitation was attempted by the EMS. Incidence was lower and arrest characteristics were consistently less favourable for lower population density groups. Survival outcomes, including return of spontaneous circulation, survival to hospital and survival to hospital discharge, were significantly poorer in less densely populated groups (P < 0.001 for all comparisons). When compared with very low density populations, the risk-adjusted odds ratios of surviving to hospital discharge were: low density, 1.88 (95% CI, 1.15-3.07); medium density, 2.49 (95% CI, 1.55-4.02); high density, 3.47 (95% CI, 2.20-5.48) and very high density, 4.32 (95% CI, 2.67-6.99). Population density is independently associated with survival after OHCA, and significant variation in the incidence and characteristics of these events are observed across the state.

Population age and initial density in a patchy environment affect the occurrence of abrupt transitions in a birth-and-death model of Taylor's law

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Zhang, B.; Cohen, J.E.

2014-01-01

Taylor's power law describes an empirical relationship between the mean and variance of population densities in field data, in which the variance varies as a power, b, of the mean. Most studies report values of b varying between 1 and 2. However, Cohen (2014a) showed recently that smooth changes in environmental conditions in a model can lead to an abrupt, infinite change in b. To understand what factors can influence the occurrence of an abrupt change in b, we used both mathematical analysis and Monte Carlo samples from a model in which populations of the same species settled on patches, and each population followed independently a stochastic linear birth-and-death process. We investigated how the power relationship responds to a smooth change of population growth rate, under different sampling strategies, initial population density, and population age. We showed analytically that, if the initial populations differ only in density, and samples are taken from all patches after the same time period following a major invasion event, Taylor's law holds with exponent b=1, regardless of the population growth rate. If samples are taken at different times from patches that have the same initial population densities, we calculate an abrupt shift of b, as predicted by Cohen (2014a). The loss of linearity between log variance and log mean is a leading indicator of the abrupt shift. If both initial population densities and population ages vary among patches, estimates of b lie between 1 and 2, as in most empirical studies. But the value of b declines to ~1 as the system approaches a critical point. Our results can inform empirical studies that might be designed to demonstrate an abrupt shift in Taylor's law.

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

Association between population density and reported incidence, characteristics and outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Sweden.

PubMed

Strömsöe, A; Svensson, L; Claesson, A; Lindkvist, J; Lundström, A; Herlitz, J

2011-10-01

To describe the reported incidence of out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and the characteristics and outcome after OHCA in relation to population density in Sweden. All patients participating in the Swedish Cardiac Arrest Register between 2008 and 2009 in (a) 20 of 21 regions (n=6457) and in (b) 165 of 292 municipalities (n=3522) in Sweden, took part in the survey. The regional population density varied between 3 and 310 inhabitants per km(2) in 2009. In 2008-2009, the number of reported cardiac arrests varied between 13 and 52 per 100,000 inhabitants and year. Survival to 1 month varied between 2% and 14% during the same period in different regions. With regard to population density, based on municipalities, bystander CPR (p=0.04) as well as cardiac etiology (p=0.002) were more frequent in less populated areas. Ambulance response time was longer in less populated areas (p<0.0001). There was no significant association between population density and survival to 1 month after OHCA or incidence (adjusted for age and gender) of OHCA. There was no significant association between population density and survival to 1 month after OHCA or incidence (adjusted for age and gender) of OHCA. However, bystander CPR, cardiac etiology and longer response times were more frequent in less populated areas. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

PubMed

Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Density-dependent home-range size revealed by spatially explicit capture–recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, M.G.; Dawson, Deanna K.; Jhala, Y.V.; Qureshi, Q.

2016-01-01

The size of animal home ranges often varies inversely with population density among populations of a species. This fact has implications for population monitoring using spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, in which both the scale of home-range movements σ and population density D usually appear as parameters, and both may vary among populations. It will often be appropriate to model a structural relationship between population-specific values of these parameters, rather than to assume independence. We suggest re-parameterizing the SECR model using kp = σp √Dp, where kp relates to the degree of overlap between home ranges and the subscript p distinguishes populations. We observe that kp is often nearly constant for populations spanning a range of densities. This justifies fitting a model in which the separate kp are replaced by the single parameter k and σp is a density-dependent derived parameter. Continuous density-dependent spatial variation in σ may also be modelled, using a scaled non-Euclidean distance between detectors and the locations of animals. We illustrate these methods with data from automatic photography of tigers (Panthera tigris) across India, in which the variation is among populations, from mist-netting of ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in Maryland, USA, in which the variation is within a single population over time, and from live-trapping of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand, modelling spatial variation within one population. Possible applications and limitations of the methods are discussed. A model in which kp is constant, while density varies, provides a parsimonious null model for SECR. The parameter k of the null model is a concise summary of the empirical relationship between home-range size and density that is useful in comparative studies. We expect deviations from this model, particularly the dependence of kp on covariates, to be biologically interesting.

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density

PubMed Central

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-01-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level. PMID:26257881

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density.

PubMed

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-07-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level.

Fishing for lobsters indirectly increases epidemics in sea urchins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, Kevin D.

2004-01-01

Two ecological paradigms, the trophic cascade and the host-density threshold in disease, interact in the kelp-forest ecosystem to structure the community. To investigate what happens when a trophic cascade pushes a host population over a host-threshold density, I analyzed a 20-year data set of kelp forest communities at 16 sites in the region of the Channel Islands National Park, California, USA. Historically, lobsters, and perhaps other predators, kept urchin populations at low levels and kelp forests developed a community-level trophic cascade. In geographic areas where the main predators on urchins were fished, urchin populations increased to the extent that they overgrazed algae and starvation eventually limited urchin-population growth. Despite the limitation of urchin population size by food availability, urchin densities, at times, well exceeded the host-density threshold for epidemics. An urchin-specific bacterial disease entered the region after 1992 and acted as a density-dependent mortality source. Dense populations were more likely to experience epidemics and suffer higher mortality. Disease did not reduce the urchin population at a site to the density that predators previously did. Therefore, disease did not fully replace predators in the trophic cascade. These results indicate how fishing top predators can indirectly favor disease transmission in prey populations.

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density.

PubMed

Hernandez-Pacheco, Raisa; Delgado, Diana L; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Maldonado, Elizabeth; Sabat, Alberto M

2016-01-01

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Palik, Brian J.; Bradford, John B.; Fraver, Shawn; Battaglia, Mike A.; Asherin, Lance A.

2017-01-01

1. Climate models predict increasing drought intensity and frequency for many regions, which may have negative consequences for tree recruitment, growth and mortality, as well as forest ecosystem services. Furthermore, practical strategies for minimizing vulnerability to drought are limited. Tree population density, a metric of tree abundance in a given area, is a primary driver of competitive intensity among trees, which influences tree growth and mortality. Manipulating tree population density may be a mechanism for moderating drought-induced stress and growth reductions, although the relationship between tree population density and tree drought vulnerability remains poorly quantified, especially across climatic gradients.2. In this study, we examined three long-term forest ecosystem experiments in two widely distributed North American pine species, ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa (Lawson & C. Lawson) and red pine Pinus resinosa (Aiton), to better elucidate the relationship between tree population density, growth and drought. These experiments span a broad latitude and aridity range and include tree population density treatments that have been purposefully maintained for several decades. We investigated how tree population density influenced resistance (growth during drought) and resilience (growth after drought compared to pre-drought growth) of stand-level growth during and after documented drought events.3. Our results show that relative tree population density was negatively related to drought resistance and resilience, indicating that trees growing at lower densities were less vulnerable to drought. This result was apparent in all three forest ecosystems, and was consistent across species, stand age and drought intensity.4. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlighted that managing pine forest ecosystems at low tree population density represents a promising adaptive strategy for reducing the adverse impacts of drought on forest growth in coming decades. Nonetheless, the broader applicability of our findings to other types of forest ecosystems merits additional investigation.

Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rauter, Claudia M.

2010-01-01

This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

Sexual minority population density and incidence of lung, colorectal and female breast cancer in California.

PubMed

Boehmer, Ulrike; Miao, Xiaopeng; Maxwell, Nancy I; Ozonoff, Al

2014-03-26

Risk factors for breast, colorectal, and lung cancer are known to be more common among lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals, suggesting they may be more likely to develop these cancers. Our objective was to determine differences in cancer incidence by sexual orientation, using sexual orientation data aggregated at the county level. Data on cancer incidence were obtained from the California Cancer Registry and data on sexual orientation were obtained from the California Health Interview Survey, from which a measure of age-specific LGB population density by county was calculated. Using multivariable Poisson regression models, the association between the age-race-stratified incident rate of breast, lung and colorectal cancer in each county and LGB population density was examined, with race, age group and poverty as covariates. Among men, bisexual population density was associated with lower incidence of lung cancer and with higher incidence of colorectal cancer. Among women, lesbian population density was associated with lower incidence of lung and colorectal cancer and with higher incidence of breast cancer; bisexual population density was associated with higher incidence of lung and colorectal cancer and with lower incidence of breast cancer. These study findings clearly document links between county-level LGB population density and cancer incidence, illuminating an important public health disparity.

Effects of population reduction on white-tailed deer home-range dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, Shawn M.; Edwards, John W.; Campbell, Tyler A; Ford, W. Mark; Keyser, Patrick D.; Miller, Brad F.; Miller, Karl V.

2015-01-01

Management strategies designed to reduce the negative impacts of overabundant Odocoileus virginianus (White-tailed Deer) populations on forest regeneration may be influenced by changes in both population density and timber harvest. However, there is conflicting evidence as to how such changes in per capita resource availability influence home-range patterns. We compared home-range patterns of 33 female White-tailed Deer from a low-density population at a site with abundant browse to patterns of a sample of >100 females prior to a 75% reduction in population density and a doubling in timber harvest area. Home-range and core-area sizes were approximately 3 times larger than were found prior to population decline and timber harvest increase, consistent with predictions related to intraspecific competition. We also observed greater site fidelity than previously exhibited, although this may be an artifact of increased home-range sizes. Our results support previous research suggesting that White-tailed Deer home-range size is inversely related to population density and is driven, in part, by intraspecific competition for resources. Relationships among population density, resource availability, and home-range patterns among female White-tailed Deer appear to be complex and context specific.

Long-term population survey of the Sulawesi black macaques (Macaca nigra) at Tangkoko Nature Reserve, North Sulawesi, Indonesia.

PubMed

Kyes, Randall C; Iskandar, Entang; Onibala, Jane; Paputungan, Umar; Laatung, Sylvia; Huettmann, Falk

2013-01-01

The Sulawesi black macaque (Macaca nigra) population at Tangkoko Nature Reserve in North Sulawesi, Indonesia has been the focus of periodic study for over 30 years. The population has shown considerable decline during much of that time. Here we present the results of a long-term population survey of the Tangkoko M. nigra, conducted over the past decade, to provide updated information and on-going assessment of the population. Line-transect sampling was conducted annually from 1999 to 2002 and 2005 to 2011 along the same transect during a 2- to 3-week survey period. Although further decline in the population was observed at the outset of the survey, over the subsequent 12-year period we have seen stability in the population parameters with evidence of modest increases in both group and population density. During the 1999-2002 survey periods, there was a mean group density of 3.6 groups/km(2) and a mean population density of 39.8 individuals/km(2) . During 2005-2011, mean group density increased to 3.8 groups/km(2) and mean population density was 51.4 individuals/km(2) . The 2011 survey data indicated an estimated group density of 4.3 groups/km(2) and a population density of 61.5 individuals/km(2) . Given that our transect was located in the core of the Tangkoko reserve, our density estimates should be limited to that area of the reserve. One explanation for the apparent stabilization of the population may be tied to the increasing and sustained number of training and research programs being conducted at the reserve. This collective effort by local and international groups may be helping to reduce illegal activity in the reserve (i.e., hunting and habitat destruction) and generate greater awareness of this critically endangered species. Without the continued vigilance afforded by the existing research and training programs and the support and involvement of the local people, the M. nigra at the Tangkoko Nature Reserve will likely face further decline. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Behavioural and physiological effects of population density on domesticated Zebra Finches (Taeniopygia guttata) held in aviaries.

PubMed

Poot, Hanneke; ter Maat, Andries; Trost, Lisa; Schwabl, Ingrid; Jansen, René F; Gahr, Manfred

2012-02-01

Zebra Finches (Taeniopygia guttata) are highly social and monogamous birds that display relatively low levels of aggression and coordinate group life mainly by means of vocal communication. In the wild, small groups may congregate to larger flocks of up to 150-350 birds. Little is known, however, about possible effects of population density on development in captivity. Investigating density effects on physiology and behaviour might be helpful in identifying optimal group size, in order to optimise Zebra Finch wellbeing. A direct effect of population density on development and reproduction was found: birds in lower density conditions produced significantly more and larger (body mass, tarsus length) surviving offspring than birds in high density conditions. Furthermore, offspring in low density aviaries produced slightly longer song motifs and more different syllables than their tutors, whereas offspring in high density aviaries produced shorter motifs and a smaller or similar number of different syllables than their tutors. Aggression levels within the populations were low throughout the experiment, but the number of aggressive interactions was significantly higher in high density aviaries. Baseline corticosterone levels did not differ significantly between high- and low density aviaries for either adult or offspring birds. On day 15 post hatching, brood size and baseline corticosterone levels were positively correlated. On days 60 and 100 post hatching this correlation was no longer present. The results of this study prove that population density affects various aspects of Zebra Finch development, with birds living in low population density conditions having an advantage over those living under higher population density conditions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Semiparametric Spline Regression Model in Analyzing Factors that In uence Population Density in Central Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumantari, Y. D.; Slamet, I.; Sugiyanto

2017-06-01

Semiparametric regression is a statistical analysis method that consists of parametric and nonparametric regression. There are various approach techniques in nonparametric regression. One of the approach techniques is spline. Central Java is one of the most densely populated province in Indonesia. Population density in this province can be modeled by semiparametric regression because it consists of parametric and nonparametric component. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to determine the factors that in uence population density in Central Java using the semiparametric spline regression model. The result shows that the factors which in uence population density in Central Java is Family Planning (FP) active participants and district minimum wage.

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms

PubMed Central

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-01-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities. PMID:25535553

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms.

PubMed

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-09-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.

Mapping Human Population Density in and Around New Hapmshire's Loon Lakes: A Comparison of Dasymetric Methods

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of anthropogenic stressors on ecosystems is directly related to the pattern of human population density across the landscape; thus, accurate information on the distribution of human populations is critical for associating the impact of human population and ecological r...

Evolutionary speed of species invasions.

PubMed

García-Ramos, Gisela; Rodríguez, Diego

2002-04-01

Successful invasion may depend of the capacity of a species to adjust genetically to a spatially varying environment. This research modeled a species invasion by examining the interaction between a quantitative genetic trait and population density. It assumed: (I) a quantitative genetic trait describes the adaptation of an individual to its local ecological conditions; (2) populations far from the local optimum grow more slowly than those near the optimum; and (3) the evolution of a trait depends on local population density, because differences in local population densities cause asymmetrical gene flow. This genetics-density interaction determined the propagation speed of populations. Numerical simulations showed that populations spread by advancing as two synchronic traveling waves, one for population density and one for trait adaptation. The form of the density wave was a step front that advances homogenizing populations at their carrying capacity; the adaptation wave was a curve with finite slope that homogenizes populations at full adaptation. The largest speed of population expansion, for a dimensionless analysis, corresponded to an almost homogeneous spatial environment when this model approached an ecological description such as the Fisher-Skellam's model. A large genetic response also favored faster speeds. Evolutionary speeds, in a natural scale, showed a wide range of rates that were also slower compared to models that only consider demographics. This evolutionary speed increased with high heritability, strong stabilizing selection, and high intrinsic growth rate. It decreased for steeper environmental gradients. Also indicated was an optimal dispersal rate over which evolutionary speed declined. This is expected because dispersal moves individuals further, but homogenizes populations genetically, making them maladapted. The evolutionary speed was compared to observed data. Furthermore, a moderate increase in the speed of expansion was predicted for ecological changes related to global warming.

Low genetic variability, female-biased dispersal and high movement rates in an urban population of Eurasian badgers Meles meles.

PubMed

Reeve, John D; Frantz, Alain C; Dawson, Deborah A; Burke, Terry; Roper, Timothy J

2008-09-01

1. Urban and rural populations of animals can differ in their behaviour, both in order to meet their ecological requirements and due to the constraints imposed by different environments. The study of urban populations can therefore offer useful insights into the behavioural flexibility of a species as a whole, as well as indicating how the species in question adapts to a specifically urban environment. 2. The genetic structure of a population can provide information about social structure and movement patterns that is difficult to obtain by other means. Using non-invasively collected hair samples, we estimated the population size of Eurasian badgers Meles meles in the city of Brighton, England, and calculated population-specific parameters of genetic variability and sex-specific rates of outbreeding and dispersal. 3. Population density was high in the context of badger densities reported throughout their range. This was due to a high density of social groups rather than large numbers of individuals per group. 4. The allelic richness of the population was low compared with other British populations. However, the rate of extra-group paternity and the relatively frequent (mainly temporary) intergroup movements suggest that, on a local scale, the population was outbred. Although members of both sexes visited other groups, there was a trend for more females to make intergroup movements. 5. The results reveal that urban badgers can achieve high densities and suggest that while some population parameters are similar between urban and rural populations, the frequency of intergroup movements is higher among urban badgers. In a wider context, these results demonstrate the ability of non-invasive genetic sampling to provide information about the population density, social structure and behaviour of urban wildlife.

Evaluating factors driving population densities of mayfly nymphs in Western Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, Martin A.; Kocovsky, Patrick; Bodamer Scarbro, Betsy L.

2017-01-01

Mayfly (Hexagenia spp.) nymphs have been widely used as indicators of water and substrate quality in lakes. Thermal stratification and the subsequent formation of benthic hypoxia may result in nymph mortality. Our goal was to identify potential associations between recent increases in temperature and eutrophication, which exacerbate hypoxic events in lakes, and mayfly populations in Lake Erie. Nymphs were collected during April–May 1999–2014. We used wind and temperature data to calculate four measures of thermal stratification, which drives hypoxic events, during summers of 1998–2013. Bottom trawl data collected during August 1998–2013 were used to estimate annual biomass of fishes known to be predators of mayfly nymphs. We used Akaike's Information Criterion to identify the best one- and two-predictor regression models of annual population densities (N/m2) of age-1 and age-2 nymphs, in which candidate predictors included the four measures of stratification, predator fish biomass, competition, and population densities of age-2 (for age-1) and age-1 (for age-2) nymphs from the previous year. Densities of both age classes of nymphs declined over the time series. Population densities of age-1 and age-2 nymphs from the previous year best predicted annual population densities of nymphs of both age classes. However, hypoxic conditions (indicated by stratification) and predation both had negative effects on annual population density of mayflies. Compared with predation, hypoxia had an inconsistent effect on annual nymph density. The increases in temperature and eutrophication in Lake Erie, which exacerbate hypoxic events, may have drastic effects on the mayfly populations.

Enhanced leaf nitrogen status stabilizes omnivore population density.

PubMed

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2017-01-01

Plant traits can mediate the strength of interactions between omnivorous predators and their prey through density effects and changes in the omnivores' trophic behavior. In this study, we explored the established assumption that enhanced nutrient status in host plants strengthens the buffering effect of plant feeding for omnivorous predators, i.e., prevents rapid negative population growth during prey density decline and thereby increases and stabilizes omnivore population density. We analyzed 13 years of field data on population densities of a heteropteran omnivore on Salix cinerea stands, arranged along a measured leaf nitrogen gradient and found a 195 % increase in omnivore population density and a 63 % decrease in population variability with an increase in leaf nitrogen status from 26 to 40 mgN × g -1 . We recreated the leaf nitrogen gradient in a greenhouse experiment and found, as expected, that increasing leaf nitrogen status enhanced omnivore performance but reduced per capita prey consumption. Feeding on high nitrogen status host plants can potentially decouple omnivore-prey population dynamics and allow omnivores to persist and function effectively at low prey densities to provide "background level" control of insect herbivores. This long-term effect is expected to outweigh the short-term effect on per capita prey consumption-resulting in a net increase in population predation rates with increasing leaf nitrogen status. Conservation biological control of insect pests that makes use of omnivore background control could, as a result, be manipulated via management of crop nitrogen status.

The impact of urbanization and population density on childhood Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence rates in Africa.

PubMed

Kabaria, Caroline W; Gilbert, Marius; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine

2017-01-26

Although malaria has been traditionally regarded as less of a problem in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas, the risk of malaria infection continues to exist in densely populated, urban areas of Africa. Despite the recognition that urbanization influences the epidemiology of malaria, there is little consensus on urbanization relevant for malaria parasite mapping. Previous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and malaria transmission have used products defining urbanization at global/continental scales developed in the early 2000s, that overestimate actual urban extents while the population estimates are over 15 years old and estimated at administrative unit level. This study sought to discriminate an urbanization definition that is most relevant for malaria parasite mapping using individual level malaria infection data obtained from nationally representative household-based surveys. Boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to determine the effect of urbanization on malaria transmission and if this effect varied with urbanization definition. In addition, the most recent high resolution population distribution data was used to determine whether population density had significant effect on malaria parasite prevalence and if so, could population density replace urban classifications in modelling malaria transmission patterns. The risk of malaria infection was shown to decline from rural areas through peri-urban settlements to urban central areas. Population density was found to be an important predictor of malaria risk. The final boosted regression trees (BRT) model with urbanization and population density gave the best model fit (Tukey test p value <0.05) compared to the models with urbanization only. Given the challenges in uniformly classifying urban areas across different countries, population density provides a reliable metric to adjust for the patterns of malaria risk in densely populated urban areas. Future malaria risk models can, therefore, be improved by including both population density and urbanization which have both been shown to have significant impact on malaria risk in this study.

Density dependence in a recovering osprey population: demographic and behavioural processes.

PubMed

Bretagnolle, V; Mougeot, F; Thibault, J-C

2008-09-01

1. Understanding how density-dependent and independent processes influence demographic parameters, and hence regulate population size, is fundamental within population ecology. We investigated density dependence in growth rate and fecundity in a recovering population of a semicolonial raptor, the osprey Pandion haliaetus [Linnaeus, 1758], using 31 years of count and demographic data in Corsica. 2. The study population increased from three pairs in 1974 to an average of 22 pairs in the late 1990s, with two distinct phases during the recovery (increase followed by stability) and contrasted trends in breeding parameters in each phase. 3. We show density dependence in population growth rate in the second phase, indicating that the stabilized population was regulated. We also show density dependence in productivity (fledging success between years and hatching success within years). 4. Using long-term data on behavioural interactions at nest sites, and on diet and fish provisioning rate, we evaluated two possible mechanisms of density dependence in productivity, food depletion and behavioural interference. 5. As density increased, both provisioning rate and the size of prey increased, contrary to predictions of a food-depletion mechanism. In the time series, a reduction in fledging success coincided with an increase in the number of non-breeders. Hatching success decreased with increasing local density and frequency of interactions with conspecifics, suggesting that behavioural interference was influencing hatching success. 6. Our study shows that, taking into account the role of non-breeders, in particular in species or populations where there are many floaters and where competition for nest sites is intense, can improve our understanding of density-dependent processes and help conservation actions.

Population Density, Poor Sanitation, and Enteric Infections in Nueva Santa Rosa, Guatemala.

PubMed

Jarquin, Claudia; Arnold, Benjamin F; Muñoz, Fredy; Lopez, Beatriz; Cuéllar, Victoria M; Thornton, Andrew; Patel, Jaymin; Reyes, Lisette; Roy, Sharon L; Bryan, Joe P; McCracken, John P; Colford, John M

2016-04-01

Poor sanitation could pose greater risk for enteric pathogen transmission at higher human population densities because of greater potential for pathogens to infect new hosts through environmentally mediated and person-to-person transmission. We hypothesized that incidence and prevalence of diarrhea, enteric protozoans, and soil-transmitted helminth infections would be higher in high-population-density areas compared with low-population-density areas, and that poor sanitation would pose greater risk for these enteric infections at high density compared with low density. We tested our hypotheses using 6 years of clinic-based diarrhea surveillance (2007-2013) including 4,360 geolocated diarrhea cases tested for 13 pathogens and a 2010 cross-sectional survey that measured environmental exposures from 204 households (920 people) and tested 701 stool specimens for enteric parasites. We found that population density was not a key determinant of enteric infection nor a strong effect modifier of risk posed by poor household sanitation in this setting. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Population Density, Poor Sanitation, and Enteric Infections in Nueva Santa Rosa, Guatemala

PubMed Central

Jarquin, Claudia; Arnold, Benjamin F.; Muñoz, Fredy; Lopez, Beatriz; Cuéllar, Victoria M.; Thornton, Andrew; Patel, Jaymin; Reyes, Lisette; Roy, Sharon L.; Bryan, Joe P.; McCracken, John P.; Colford, John M.

2016-01-01

Poor sanitation could pose greater risk for enteric pathogen transmission at higher human population densities because of greater potential for pathogens to infect new hosts through environmentally mediated and person-to-person transmission. We hypothesized that incidence and prevalence of diarrhea, enteric protozoans, and soil-transmitted helminth infections would be higher in high-population-density areas compared with low-population-density areas, and that poor sanitation would pose greater risk for these enteric infections at high density compared with low density. We tested our hypotheses using 6 years of clinic-based diarrhea surveillance (2007–2013) including 4,360 geolocated diarrhea cases tested for 13 pathogens and a 2010 cross-sectional survey that measured environmental exposures from 204 households (920 people) and tested 701 stool specimens for enteric parasites. We found that population density was not a key determinant of enteric infection nor a strong effect modifier of risk posed by poor household sanitation in this setting. PMID:26856919

Impact of population density on collision rates in a rapidly developing rural, exurban area of Los Angeles County.

PubMed

Fischer, Kelly; Sternfeld, Isabelle; Melnick, Douglas Sloan

2013-04-01

To determine if the commonly acknowledged relationships between population density and traffic collisions are found at the subcounty level and to describe how collision characteristics may vary substantially at a local level, with a particular emphasis on exurban areas. Los Angeles County collision data were obtained from the California Highway Patrol and the census tract and service planning area (SPA) for each collision were determined. The correlation between population density and collision rates by census tract was calculated within each SPA and for the entire county. Primary collision factors were compared for geographic areas of different population densities within one exurban SPA in Los Angeles County. An inverse relationship was found between collision rates and population density within Los Angeles County. Primary collisions factors were different in areas of the county with different population densities, with driving or biking under the influence particularly common in the most rural area. Subcounty analyses are very important to the study of traffic collisions. Traffic problems in rapidly developing exurban areas may be quite different from those in older, more established areas.

Measuring the transmission dynamics of a sexually transmitted disease

PubMed Central

Ryder, Jonathan J.; Webberley, K. Mary; Boots, Michael; Knell, Robert J.

2005-01-01

Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) occur throughout the animal kingdom and are generally thought to affect host population dynamics and evolution very differently from other directly transmitted infectious diseases. In particular, STDs are not thought to have threshold densities for persistence or to be able to regulate host population density independently; they may also have the potential to cause host extinction. However, these expectations follow from a theory that assumes that the rate of STD spread depends on the proportion (rather than the density) of individuals infected in a population. We show here that this key assumption (“frequency dependence”), which has not previously been tested in an animal STD system, is invalid in a simple and general experimental model. Transmission of an STD in the two-spot ladybird depended more on the density of infected individuals in the study population than on their frequency. We argue that, in this system, and in many other animal STDs in which population density affects sexual contact rate, population dynamics may exhibit some characteristics that are normally reserved for diseases with density-dependent transmission. PMID:16204382

Density-dependent regulation of population size in colonial breeders: Allee and buffer effects in the migratory Montagu's harrier.

PubMed

Soutullo, Alvaro; Limiñana, Rubén; Urios, Vicente; Surroca, Martín; A Gill, Jennifer

2006-09-01

Expanding populations offer an opportunity to uncover the processes driving spatial variation in distribution and abundance. Individual settlement decisions will be influenced by the availability and relative quality of patches, and by how these respond to changes in conspecific density. For example, conspecific presence can alter patch suitability through reductions in resource availability or territorial exclusion, leading to buffer effect patterns of disproportionate population expansion into poorer quality areas. However, conspecific presence can also enhance patch suitability through Allee effect processes, such as transmission of information about resources or improved predator detection and deterrence. Here, we explore the factors underlying the settlement pattern of a growing population of Montagu's harriers (Circus pygargus) in Spain. The population increased exponentially between 1981 and 2001, but stabilised between 2001 and 2004. This population increase occurred alongside a remarkable spatial expansion, with novel site use occurring prior to maximum densities in occupied sites being reached. However, no temporal trends in fecundity were observed and, within sites, average fecundity did not decline with increasing density. Across the population, variance in productivity did increase with population size, suggesting a complex pattern of density-dependent costs and benefits. We suggest that both Allee and buffer effects are operating in this system, with the benefits of conspecific presence counteracting density-dependent declines in resource availability or quality.

Spatial distribution of limited resources and local density regulation in juvenile Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Finstad, Anders G; Einum, Sigurd; Ugedal, Ola; Forseth, Torbjørn

2009-01-01

1. Spatial heterogeneity of resources may influence competition among individuals and thus have a fundamental role in shaping population dynamics and carrying capacity. In the present study, we identify shelter opportunities as a limiting resource for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Experimental and field studies are combined in order to demonstrate how the spatial distribution of shelters may influence population dynamics on both within and among population scales. 2. In closed experimental streams, fish performance scaled negatively with decreasing shelter availability and increasing densities. In contrast, the fish in open stream channels dispersed according to shelter availability and performance of fish remaining in the streams did not depend on initial density or shelters. 3. The field study confirmed that spatial variation in densities of 1-year-old juveniles was governed both by initial recruit density and shelter availability. Strength of density-dependent population regulation, measured as carrying capacity, increased with decreasing number of shelters. 4. Nine rivers were surveyed for spatial variation in shelter availability and increased shelter heterogeneity tended to decrease maximum observed population size (measured using catch statistics of adult salmon as a proxy). 5. Our studies highlight the importance of small-scale within-population spatial structure in population dynamics and demonstrate that not only the absolute amount of limiting resources but also their spatial arrangement can be an important factor influencing population carrying capacity.

Use of remote sensing, geographic information systems, and spatial statistics to assess spatio-temporal population dynamics of Heterodera glycines and soybean yield quantity and quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreira, Antonio Jose De Araujo

Soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr., is an important source of oil and protein worldwide, and soybean cyst nematode (SCN), Heterodera glycines, is among the most important yield-limiting factors in soybean production worldwide. Early detection of SCN is difficult because soybean plants infected by SCN often do not exhibit visible symptoms. It was hypothesized, however, that reflectance data obtained by remote sensing from soybean canopies may be used to detect plant stress caused by SCN infection. Moreover, reflectance measurements may be related to soybean growth and yield. Two field experiments were conducted from 2000 to 2002 to study the relationships among reflectance data, quantity and quality of soybean yield, and SCN population densities. The best relationships between reflectance and the quantity of soybean grain yield occurred when reflectance data were obtained late August to early September. Similarly, reflectance was best related to seed oil and seed protein content and seed size when measured during late August/early September. Grain quality-reflectance relationships varied spatially and temporally. Reflectance measured early or late in the season had the best relationships with SCN population densities measured at planting. Soil properties likely affected reflectance measurements obtained at the beginning of the season and somehow may have been related to SCN population densities at planting. Reflectance data obtained at the end of the growing season likely was affected by early senescence of SCN-infected soybeans. Spatio-temporal aspects of SCN population densities in both experiments were assessed using spatial statistics and regression analyses. In the 2000 and 2001 growing seasons, spring-to-fall changes in SCN population densities were best related to SCN population densities at planting for both experiments. However, within-season changes in SCN population densities were best related to SCN population densities at harvest for both experiments in 2002. Variograms were fitted to the data to describe the spatial characteristics of SCN population densities in both fields at planting and at harvest from 2000 to 2003 and these parameters varied within seasons and during overwinter periods in both experiments. Distinct relationships between temporal and spatial changes in SCN population densities were not detected.

Density-Dependent Effects on Group Size Are Sex-Specific in a Gregarious Ungulate

PubMed Central

Vander Wal, Eric; van Beest, Floris M.; Brook, Ryan K.

2013-01-01

Density dependence can have marked effects on social behaviors such as group size. We tested whether changes in population density of a large herbivore (elk, Cervus canadensis) affected sex-specific group size and whether the response was density- or frequency-dependent. We quantified the probability and strength of changes in group sizes and dispersion as population density changed for each sex. We used group size data from a population of elk in Manitoba, Canada, that was experimentally reduced from 1.20 to 0.67 elk/km2 between 2002 and 2009. Our results indicated that functional responses of group size to population density are sex-specific. Females showed a positive density-dependent response in group size at population densities ≥0.70 elk/km2 and we found evidence for a minimum group size at population density ≤0.70 elk/km2. Changes in male group size were also density-dependent; however, the strength of the relationship was lower than for females. Density dependence in male group size was predominantly a result of fusion of solitary males into larger groups, rather than fusion among existing groups. Our study revealed that density affects group size of a large herbivore differently between males and females, which has important implications for the benefits e.g., alleviating predation risk, and costs of social behaviors e.g., competition for resources and mates, and intra-specific pathogen transmission. PMID:23326502

Density, distribution, and genetic structure of grizzly bears in the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Macleod, Amy C.; Boyd, Kristina L.; Boulanger, John; Royle, J. Andrew; Kasworm, Wayne F.; Paetkau, David; Proctor, Michael F.; Annis, Kim; Graves, Tabitha A.

2016-01-01

The conservation status of the 2 threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations in the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem (CYE) of northern Montana and Idaho had remained unchanged since designation in 1975; however, the current demographic status of these populations was uncertain. No rigorous data on population density and distribution or analysis of recent population genetic structure were available to measure the effectiveness of conservation efforts. We used genetic detection data from hair corral, bear rub, and opportunistic sampling in traditional and spatial capture–recapture models to generate estimates of abundance and density of grizzly bears in the CYE. We calculated mean bear residency on our sampling grid from telemetry data using Huggins and Pledger models to estimate the average number of bears present and to correct our superpopulation estimates for lack of geographic closure. Estimated grizzly bear abundance (all sex and age classes) in the CYE in 2012 was 48–50 bears, approximately half the population recovery goal. Grizzly bear density in the CYE (4.3–4.5 grizzly bears/1,000 km2) was among the lowest of interior North American populations. The sizes of the Cabinet (n = 22–24) and Yaak (n = 18–22) populations were similar. Spatial models produced similar estimates of abundance and density with comparable precision without requiring radio-telemetry data to address assumptions of geographic closure. The 2 populations in the CYE were demographically and reproductively isolated from each other and the Cabinet population was highly inbred. With parentage analysis, we documented natural migrants to the Cabinet and Yaak populations by bears born to parents in the Selkirk and Northern Continental Divide populations. These events supported data from other sources suggesting that the expansion of neighboring populations may eventually help sustain the CYE populations. However, the small size, isolation, and inbreeding documented by this study demonstrate the need for comprehensive management designed to support CYE population growth and increased connectivity and gene flow with other populations.

Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Derek M. Johnson; Ottar N. Bj& #248rnstad

2006-01-01

Explanations for the ubiquitous presence of spatially synchronous population dynamics have assumed that density-dependent processes governing the dynamics of local populations are identical among disjunct populations, and low levels of dispersal or small amounts of regionalized stochasticity ("Moran effect") can act to synchronize populations. In this study...

Mating systems of Cuphea laminuligera and Cuphea lutea.

PubMed

Krueger, S K; Knapp, S J

1991-08-01

In this paper, the mating systems of experimental populations of C. laminuligera and C. lutea are described. Outcrossing rates (t) were estimated for four populations of C. laminuligera and three populations of C. lutea using allozyme phenotypes of open-pollinated individual plant families. Populations were grown at densities of 1.0 × 1.0 m (low) and 0.04 × 0.3 m (high). Pollen and ovule frequencies and single locus and multilocus outcrossing rates were estimated for each population using the mixed-mating model. Multilocus estimates of t ranged from 0.83 to 0.98 and 1.00 to 1.01 for low and high density populations of C. laminuligera, respectively, and 0.17 to 0.26 and 0.36 to 0.54 for low and high density populations of C. lutea, respectively. C. laminuligera is predominantly allogamous; however, selfing rates as great as 17% were observed for this species. C. lutea is predominantly autogamous, but outcrossing rates as great as 54% were observed for this species. Outcrossing rates increased as density increased within C. lutea populations.

Population Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Analysis of Alirocumab in Healthy Volunteers or Hypercholesterolemic Subjects Using an Indirect Response Model to Predict Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Lowering: Support for a Biologics License Application Submission: Part II.

PubMed

Nicolas, Xavier; Djebli, Nassim; Rauch, Clémence; Brunet, Aurélie; Hurbin, Fabrice; Martinez, Jean-Marie; Fabre, David

2018-05-03

Alirocumab, a human monoclonal antibody against proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9), significantly lowers low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. This analysis aimed to develop and qualify a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model for alirocumab based on pooled data obtained from 13 phase I/II/III clinical trials. From a dataset of 2799 individuals (14,346 low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol values), individual pharmacokinetic parameters from the population pharmacokinetic model presented in Part I of this series were used to estimate alirocumab concentrations. As a second step, we then developed the current population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model using an indirect response model with a Hill coefficient, parameterized with increasing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol elimination, to relate alirocumab concentrations to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol values. The population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model allowed the characterization of the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties of alirocumab in the target population and estimation of individual low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and derived pharmacodynamic parameters (the maximum decrease in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol values from baseline and the difference between baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and the pre-dose value before the next alirocumab dose). Significant parameter-covariate relationships were retained in the model, with a total of ten covariates (sex, age, weight, free baseline PCSK9, total time-varying PCSK9, concomitant statin administration, total baseline PCSK9, co-administration of high-dose statins, disease status) included in the final population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model to explain between-subject variability. Nevertheless, the high number of covariates included in the model did not have a clinically meaningful impact on model-derived pharmacodynamic parameters. This model successfully allowed the characterization of the population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties of alirocumab in its target population and the estimation of individual low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels.

Anthropogenically-Mediated Density Dependence in a Declining Farmland Bird

PubMed Central

Dunn, Jenny C.; Hamer, Keith C.; Benton, Tim G.

2015-01-01

Land management intrinsically influences the distribution of animals and can consequently alter the potential for density-dependent processes to act within populations. For declining species, high densities of breeding territories are typically considered to represent productive populations. However, as density-dependent effects of food limitation or predator pressure may occur (especially when species are dependent upon separate nesting and foraging habitats), high territory density may limit per-capita productivity. Here, we use a declining but widespread European farmland bird, the yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella L., as a model system to test whether higher territory densities result in lower fledging success, parental provisioning rates or nestling growth rates compared to lower densities. Organic landscapes held higher territory densities, but nests on organic farms fledged fewer nestlings, translating to a 5 times higher rate of population shrinkage on organic farms compared to conventional. In addition, when parental provisioning behaviour was not restricted by predation risk (i.e., at times of low corvid activity), nestling provisioning rates were higher at lower territory densities, resulting in a much greater increase in nestling mass in low density areas, suggesting that food limitation occurred at high densities. These findings in turn suggest an ecological trap, whereby preferred nesting habitat does not provide sufficient food for rearing nestlings at high population density, creating a population sink. Habitat management for farmland birds should focus not simply on creating a high nesting density, but also on ensuring heterogeneous habitats to provide food resources in close proximity to nesting birds, even if this occurs through potentially restricting overall nest density but increasing population-level breeding success. PMID:26431173

Climatic and density influences on recruitment in an irruptive population of Roosevelt elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starns, Heath D.; Ricca, Mark A.; Duarte, Adam; Weckerly, Floyd W.

2014-01-01

Current paradigms of ungulate population ecology recognize that density-dependent and independent mechanisms are not always mutually exclusive. Long-term data sets are necessary to assess the relative strength of each mechanism, especially when populations display irruptive dynamics. Using an 18-year time series of population abundances of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) inhabiting Redwood National Park in northwestern California we assessed the influence of population size and climatic variation on elk recruitment and whether irruptive dynamics occurred. An information-theoretic model selection analysis indicated that abundance lagged 2 years and neither climatic factors nor a mix of abundance and climatic factors influenced elk recruitment. However, density-dependent recruitment differed between when the population was declining and when the population increased and then stabilized at an abundance lower than at the start of the decline. The population displayed irruptive dynamics.

An evaluation of density-dependent and density-independent influences on population growth rates in Weddell seals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hadley, G.L.; Garrott, R.A.; Proffitt, K.M.

2009-01-01

Much of the existing literature that evaluates the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors on population dynamics has been called into question in recent years because measurement errors were not properly dealt with in analyses. Using state-space models to account for measurement errors, we evaluated a set of competing models for a 22-year time series of mark-resight estimates of abundance for a breeding population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) studied in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We tested for evidence of direct density dependence in growth rates and evaluated whether equilibrium population size was related to seasonal sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We found strong evidence of negative density dependence in annual growth rates for a population whose estimated size ranged from 438 to 623 females during the study. Based on Bayes factors, a density-dependence-only model was favored over models that also included en! vironmental covariates. According to the favored model, the population had a stationary distribution with a mean of 497 females (SD = 60.5), an expected growth rate of 1.10 (95% credible interval 1.08-1.15) when population size was 441 females, and a rate of 0.90 (95% credible interval 0.87-0.93) for a population of 553 females. A model including effects of SOI did receive some support and indicated a positive relationship between SOI and population size. However, effects of SOI were not large, and including the effect did not greatly reduce our estimate of process variation. We speculate that direct density dependence occurred because rates of adult survival, breeding, and temporary emigration were affected by limitations on per capita food resources and space for parturition and pup-rearing. To improve understanding of the relative roles of various demographic components and their associated vital rates to population growth rate, mark-recapture methods can be applied that incorporate both environmental covariates and the seal abundance estimates that were developed here. An improved understanding of why vital rates change with changing population abundance will only come as we develop a better understanding of the processes affecting marine food resources in the Southern Ocean.

The non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate drive the geographical patterns of waterfowl survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Qing; Boomer, G. Scott; Kendall, William L.

2018-01-01

On-going climate change has major impacts on ecological processes and patterns. Understanding the impacts of climate on the geographical patterns of survival can provide insights to how population dynamics respond to climate change and provide important information for the development of appropriate conservation strategies at regional scales. It is challenging to understand the impacts of climate on survival, however, due to the fact that the non-linear relationship between survival and climate can be modified by density-dependent processes. In this study we extended the Brownie model to partition hunting and non-hunting mortalities and linked non-hunting survival to covariates. We applied this model to four decades (1972–2014) of waterfowl band-recovery, breeding population survey, and precipitation and temperature data covering multiple ecological regions to examine the non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate on waterfowl non-hunting survival at a regional scale. Our results showed that the non-linear effect of temperature on waterfowl non-hunting survival was modified by breeding population density. The concave relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature suggested that the effects of warming on waterfowl survival might be multifaceted. Furthermore, the relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature was stronger when population density was higher, suggesting that high-density populations may be less buffered against warming than low-density populations. Our study revealed distinct relationships between waterfowl non-hunting survival and climate across and within ecological regions, highlighting the importance of considering different conservation strategies according to region-specific population and climate conditions. Our findings and associated novel modelling approach have wide implications in conservation practice.

Predicting Intra-Urban Population Densities in Africa using SAR and Optical Remote Sensing Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linard, C.; Steele, J.; Forget, Y.; Lopez, J.; Shimoni, M.

2017-12-01

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving profound social, environmental and epidemiological changes within rapidly growing cities. Estimations of within-city variations in population density must be improved in order to take urban heterogeneities into account and better help urban research and decision making, especially for vulnerability and health assessments. Satellite remote sensing offers an effective solution for mapping settlements and monitoring urbanization at different spatial and temporal scales. In Africa, the urban landscape is covered by slums and small houses, where the heterogeneity is high and where the man-made materials are natural. Innovative methods that combine optical and SAR data are therefore necessary for improving settlement mapping and population density predictions. An automatic method was developed to estimate built-up densities using recent and archived optical and SAR data and a multi-temporal database of built-up densities was produced for 48 African cities. Geo-statistical methods were then used to study the relationships between census-derived population densities and satellite-derived built-up attributes. Best predictors were combined in a Random Forest framework in order to predict intra-urban variations in population density in any large African city. Models show significant improvement of our spatial understanding of urbanization and urban population distribution in Africa in comparison to the state of the art.

Dietary niche variation and its relationship to lizard population density.

PubMed

Novosolov, Maria; Rodda, Gordon H; Gainsbury, Alison M; Meiri, Shai

2018-01-01

Insular species are predicted to broaden their niches, in response to having fewer competitors. They can thus exploit a greater proportion of the resource spectrum. In turn, broader niches are hypothesized to facilitate (or be a consequence of) increased population densities. We tested whether insular lizards have broader dietary niches than mainland species, how it relates to competitor and predator richness, and the nature of the relationship between population density and dietary niche breadth. We collected population density and dietary niche breadth data for 36 insular and 59 mainland lizard species, and estimated competitor and predator richness at the localities where diet data were collected. We estimated dietary niche shift by comparing island species to their mainland relatives. We controlled for phylogenetic relatedness, body mass and the size of the plots over which densities were estimated. We found that island and mainland species had similar niche breadths. Dietary niche breadth was unrelated to competitor and predator richness, on both islands and the mainland. Population density was unrelated to dietary niche breadth across island and mainland populations. Our results indicate that dietary generalism is not an effective way of increasing population density nor is it result of lower competitive pressure. A lower variety of resources on islands may prevent insular animals from increasing their niche breadths even in the face of few competitors. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Population density and phenotypic attributes influence the level of nematode parasitism in roe deer.

PubMed

Body, Guillaume; Ferté, Hubert; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Delorme, Daniel; Klein, François; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle

2011-11-01

The impact of parasites on population dynamics is well documented, but less is known on how host population density affects parasite spread. This relationship is difficult to assess because of confounding effects of social structure, population density, and environmental conditions that lead to biased among-population comparisons. Here, we analyzed the infestation by two groups of nematodes (gastro-intestinal (GI) strongyles and Trichuris) in the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population of Trois Fontaines (France) between 1997 and 2007. During this period, we experimentally manipulated population density through changes in removals. Using measures collected on 297 individuals, we quantified the impact of density on parasite spread after taking into account possible influences of date, age, sex, body mass, and weather conditions. The prevalence and abundance of eggs of both parasites in females were positively related to roe deer density, except Trichuris in adult females. We also found a negative relationship between parasitism and body mass, and strong age and sex-dependent patterns of parasitism. Prime-age adults were less often parasitized and had lower fecal egg counts than fawns or old individuals, and males were more heavily and more often infected than females. Trichuris parasites were not affected by weather, whereas GI strongyles were less present after dry and hot summers. In the range of observed densities, the observed effect of density likely involves a variation of the exposure rate, as opposed to variation in host susceptibility.

The role of population density on the impact of urbaniza-tion on GHG emissions in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yonghong; Gao, Chaochao; Lu, Yingying

2017-04-01

Urbanization directly drives rural to urban population migration and indirectly causes west to east migration in China, two phenomena that may significantly impact China's greenhouse gas emissions given its huge population and vast difference between the western rural and eastern urban areas. These two phenomena were analyzed by using emissions as a per capita term, and extending the impact from the traditional urbanization rate effect to include population density effect. The results show that population density has actually been the dominant demographic player in changing per capita emissions for the past two decades in China, and its elasticity changed from positive in economically less-developed provinces to negative for the developed provinces. This study provides a new perspective in the study of the relationship between urbanization and greenhouse gas emissions, and the results indicate that population density change should be taken into account to accurately assess the impact of urbanization.

Dispersal-mediated effect of microhabitat availability and density dependence determine population dynamics of a forest floor web spider.

PubMed

Takada, Mayura B; Miyashita, Tadashi

2014-09-01

Landscapes in nature can be viewed as a continuum of small total habitable area with high fragmentation to widely spreading habitats. The dispersal-mediated rescue effect predominates in the former landscapes, while classical density-dependent processes generally prevail in widely spread habitats. A similar principle should be applied to populations of organisms utilizing microhabitats in limited supply. To test this hypothesis, we examined the population dynamics of a web spider, Neriene brongersmai, in 16 populations with varying degrees of microhabitat availability, and we explored whether: (i) high microhabitat availability improves survival rate during density-independent movement, while the resultant high density reduces survival rate in a density-dependent manner; and (ii) temporal population stability increases with microhabitat availability at the population level. Furthermore, we conducted two types of field experiments to verify whether high microhabitat availability actually reduces mortality associated with web-site movement. Field observations revealed that demographic change in N. brongersmai populations was affected by three factors at different stages, namely the microhabitat limitation from the early to late juvenile stages, the density dependence from the late juvenile to adult stages and the food limitation from the adult to the next early juvenile stages. In addition, there was a tendency for a positive association between population stability and microhabitat availability at the population level. A small-scale experiment, where the frequency of spider web relocation was equalized artificially, revealed that high microhabitat availability elevated the survival rate during a movement event between web-sites. The larger spatiotemporal scale experiment also revealed an improved spider survival rate following treatment with high microhabitat availability, even though spider density was kept at a relatively low level. The population dynamics of N. brongersmai can be determined primarily by density-independent processes based on web-site fragmentation and density-dependent processes driven by interference competition. We conclude that depending on the amount of habitat resources, the relative importance of the two contrasting paradigms-equilibrium and non-equilibrium-appears to vary, even within a particular system. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Swift Foxes and Ideal Free Distribution: Relative Influence of Vegetation and Rodent Prey Base on Swift Fox Survival, Density, and Home Range Size

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

of exploiting a wide range of habitats, reported population parameters such as density and survival vary widely indicating variation in habitat quality...more strongly influenced by the “riskiness” of the habitat than by resource availability [8]. Swift fox population parameters in different landscapes...we explored the effects of landscape heterogeneity on population parameters likely to reflect habitat quality, such as population density, home range

[The representation of population density in school atlases: a critical examination of population maps].

PubMed

Schroder, P

1997-01-01

The author critiques the way population density is represented in school atlases, focusing on those used in German-speaking countries. After a discussion of the methodological problems underlying such representations, he selects examples from several German atlases to illustrate the transmission of contradictory, misleading, or out-of-date information. He also suggests ways to improve this situation, including better teaching of underlying cartographical issues and the use of a dot system to illustrate population density.

Scat-detection dogs survey low density moose in New York

Treesearch

Heidi Kretser; Michale Glennon; Alice Whitelaw; Aimee Hurt; Kristine Pilgrim; Michael Schwartz

2016-01-01

The difficulty of collecting occurrence and population dynamics data in mammalian populations of low density poses challenges for making informed management decisions. We assessed the use of scat-detection dogs to search for fecal pellets in a low density moose (Alces alces) population in the Adirondack Park in New York State, and the success rate of DNA...

Regulation of Population Densities of Heterodera cajani and Other Plant-Parasitic Nematodes by Crop Rotations on Vertisols, in Semi-Arid Tropical Production Systems in India

PubMed Central

Sharma, S. B.; Rego, T. J.; Mohiuddin, M.; Rao, V. N.

1996-01-01

The significance of double crop (intercrop and sequential crop), single crop (rainy season crop fallow from June to September), and rotations on densities of Heterodera cajani, Helicotylenchus retusus, and Rotylenchulus reniformis was studied on Vertisol (Typic Pellusterts) between 1987 and 1993. Cowpea (Vigna sinensis), mungbean (Phaseolus aureus), and pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan) greatly increased the population densities of H. cajani and suppressed the population densities of other plant-parasitic nematodes. Mean population densities of H. cajani were about 8 times lower in single crop systems than in double crop systems, with pigeonpea as a component intercrop. Plots planted to sorghum, safflower, and chickpea in the preceding year contained fewer H. cajani eggs and juveniles than did plots previously planted to pigeonpea, cowpea, or mungbean. Continuous cropping of sorghum in the rainy season and safflower in the post-rainy season markedly reduced the population density of H. cajani. Sorghum, safflower, and chickpea favored increased population densities of H. retusus. Adding cowpea to the system resulted in a significant increase in the densities of R. reniformis. Mean densities of total plant-parasitic nematodes were three times greater in double crop systems, with pigeonpea as a component intercrop than in single crop systems with rainy season fallow component. Cropping systems had a regulatory effect on the nematode populations and could be an effective nematode management tactic. Intercropping of sorghum with H. cajani tolerant pigeonpea could be effective in increasing the productivity of traditional production systems in H. cajani infested regions. PMID:19277141

Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer.

PubMed

Tyler, Nicholas J C; Forchhammer, Mads C; Øritsland, Nils Are

2008-06-01

Nonlinear and irregular population dynamics may arise as a result of phase dependence and coexistence of multiple attractors. Here we explore effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a highly fluctuating population of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) on Svalbard observed over a period of 29 years. Time series analyses revealed that density dependence and the effects of local climate (measured as the degree of ablation [melting] of snow during winter) on numbers were both highly nonlinear: direct negative density dependence was found when the population was growing (Rt > 0) and during phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) characterized by winters with generally high (1979-1995) and low (1996-2007) indices, respectively. A growth-phase-dependent model explained the dynamics of the population best and revealed the influence of density-independent processes on numbers that a linear autoregressive model missed altogether. In particular, the abundance of reindeer was enhanced by ablation during phases of growth (Rt > 0), an observation that contrasts with the view that periods of mild weather in winter are normally deleterious for reindeer owing to icing of the snowpack. Analyses of vital rates corroborated the nonlinearity described in the population time series and showed that both starvation mortality in winter and fecundity were nonlinearly related to fluctuations in density and the level of ablation. The erratic pattern of growth of the population of reindeer in Adventdalen seems, therefore, to result from a combination of the effects of nonlinear density dependence, strong density-dependent mortality, and variable density independence related to ablation in winter.

Population Dynamics of Dactylella oviparasitica and Heterodera schachtii: Toward a Decision Model for Sugar Beet Planting

PubMed Central

Yang, Jiue-in; Benecke, Scott; Jeske, Daniel R.; Rocha, Fernando S.; Smith Becker, Jennifer; Timper, Patricia; Ole Becker, J.

2012-01-01

A series of experiments were performed to examine the population dynamics of the sugarbeet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, and the nematophagus fungus Dactylella oviparasitica. After two nematode generations, the population densities of H. schachtii were measured in relation to various initial infestation densities of both D. oviparasitica and H. schachtii. In general, higher initial population densities of D. oviparasitica were associated with lower final population densities of H. schachtii. Regression models showed that the initial densities of D. oviparasitica were only significant when predicting the final densities of H. schachtii J2 and eggs as well as fungal egg parasitism, while the initial densities of J2 were significant for all final H. schachtii population density measurements. We also showed that the densities of H. schachtii-associated D. oviparasitica fluctuate greatly, with rRNA gene numbers going from zero in most field-soil-collected cysts to an average of 4.24 x 108 in mature females isolated directly from root surfaces. Finally, phylogenetic analysis of rRNA genes suggested that D. oviparasitica belongs to a clade of nematophagous fungi that includes Arkansas Fungus strain L (ARF-L) and that these fungi are widely distributed. We anticipate that these findings will provide foundational data facilitating the development of more effective decision models for sugar beet planting. PMID:23481664

Experimental evidence that density dependence strongly influences plant invasions through fragmented landscapes.

PubMed

Williams, Jennifer L; Levine, Jonathan M

2018-04-01

Populations of range expanding species encounter patches of both favorable and unfavorable habitat as they spread across landscapes. Theory shows that increasing patchiness slows the spread of populations modeled with continuously varying population density when dispersal is not influence by the environment or individual behavior. However, as is found in uniformly favorable landscapes, spread remains driven by fecundity and dispersal from low density individuals at the invasion front. In contrast, when modeled populations are composed of discrete individuals, patchiness causes populations to build up to high density before dispersing past unsuitable habitat, introducing an important influence of density dependence on spread velocity. To test the hypothesized interaction between habitat patchiness and density dependence, we simultaneously manipulated these factors in a greenhouse system of annual plants spreading through replicated experimental landscapes. We found that increasing the size of gaps and amplifying the strength of density dependence both slowed spread velocity, but contrary to predictions, the effect of amplified density dependence was similar across all landscape types. Our results demonstrate that the discrete nature of individuals in spreading populations has a strong influence on how both landscape patchiness and density dependence influence spread through demographic and dispersal stochasticity. Both finiteness and landscape structure should be critical components to theoretical predictions of future spread for range expanding native species or invasive species colonizing new habitat. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Excited level populations and excitation kinetics of nonequilibrium ionizing argon discharge plasma of atmospheric pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akatsuka, Hiroshi

2009-04-15

Population densities of excited states of argon atoms are theoretically examined for ionizing argon plasma in a state of nonequilibrium under atmospheric pressure from the viewpoint of elementary processes with collisional radiative model. The dependence of excited state populations on the electron and gas temperatures is discussed. Two electron density regimes are found, which are distinguished by the population and depopulation mechanisms for the excited states in problem. When the electron impact excitation frequency for the population or depopulation is lower than the atomic impact one, the electron density of the plasma is considered as low to estimate the populationmore » and depopulation processes. Some remarkable characteristics of population and depopulation mechanisms are found for the low electron density atmospheric plasma, where thermal relaxation by atomic collisions becomes the predominant process within the group of close-energy states in the ionizing plasma of atmospheric pressure, and the excitation temperature is almost the same as the gas temperature. In addition to the collisional relaxation by argon atoms, electron impact excitation from the ground state is also an essential population mechanism. The ratios of population density of the levels pairs, between which exists a large energy gap, include information on the electron collisional kinetics. For high electron density, the effect of atomic collisional relaxation becomes weak. For this case, the excitation mechanism is explained as electron impact ladderlike excitation similar to low-pressure ionizing plasma, since the electron collision becomes the dominant process for the population and depopulation kinetics.« less

Comparison of Intrinsic Rate of Different House Fly Densities in a Simulated Condition: A Prediction for House Fly Population and Control Threshold.

PubMed

Ong, Song-Quan; Ahmad, Hamdan; Jaal, Zairi; Rus, Adanan; Fadzlah, Fadhlina Hazwani Mohd

2017-01-01

Determining the control threshold for a pest is common prior to initiating a pest control program; however, previous studies related to the house fly control threshold for a poultry farm are insufficient for determining such a threshold. This study aimed to predict the population changes of house fly population by comparing the intrinsic rate of increase (r m ) for different house fly densities in a simulated system. This study first defined the knee points of a known population growth curve as a control threshold by comparing the r m of five densities of house flies in a simulated condition. Later, to understand the interactions between the larval and adult populations, the correlation between larval and adult capacity rate (r c ) was studied. The r m values of 300- and 500-fly densities were significantly higher compared with the r m values at densities of 50 and 100 flies. This result indicated their representative indices as candidates for a control threshold. The r c of larval and adult populations were negatively correlated with densities of fewer than 300 flies; this implicated adult populations with fewer than 300 flies as declining while the larval population was growing; therefore, control approaches should focus on the immature stages. The results in the present study suggest a control threshold for house fly populations. Future works should focus on calibrating the threshold indices in field conditions. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Low crop plant population densities promote pollen-mediated gene flow in spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.).

PubMed

Willenborg, Christian J; Brûlé-Babel, Anita L; Van Acker, Rene C

2009-12-01

Transgenic wheat is currently being field tested with the intent of eventual commercialization. The development of wheat genotypes with novel traits has raised concerns regarding the presence of volunteer wheat populations and the role they may play in facilitating transgene movement. Here, we report the results of a field experiment that investigated the potential of spring wheat plant population density and crop height to minimize gene flow from a herbicide-resistant (HR) volunteer population to a non-HR crop. Pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) between the HR volunteer wheat population and four conventional spring wheat genotypes varying in height was assessed over a range of plant population densities. Natural hybridization events between the two cultivars were detected by phenotypically scoring plants in F(1) populations followed by verification with Mendelian segregation ratios in the F(1:2) families. PMGF was strongly associated with crop yield components, but showed no association with flowering synchrony. Maximum observed PMGF was always less than 0.6%, regardless of crop height and density. The frequency of PMGF in spring wheat decreased exponentially with increasing plant population density, but showed no dependence on either crop genotype or height. However, increasing plant densities beyond the recommended planting rate of 300 cropped wheat plants m(-2) provided no obvious benefit to reducing PMGF. Nevertheless, our results demonstrate a critical plant density of 175-200 cropped wheat plants m(-2) below which PMGF frequencies rise exponentially with decreasing plant density. These results will be useful in the development of mechanistic models and best management practices that collectively facilitate the coexistence of transgenic and nontransgenic wheat crops.

Newly rare or newly common: evolutionary feedbacks through changes in population density and relative species abundance, and their management implications

PubMed Central

Lankau, Richard A; Strauss, Sharon Y

2011-01-01

Environmental management typically seeks to increase or maintain the population sizes of desirable species and to decrease population sizes of undesirable pests, pathogens, or invaders. With changes in population size come long-recognized changes in ecological processes that act in a density-dependent fashion. While the ecological effects of density dependence have been well studied, the evolutionary effects of changes in population size, via changes in ecological interactions with community members, are underappreciated. Here, we provide examples of changing selective pressures on, or evolution in, species as a result of changes in either density of conspecifics or changes in the frequency of heterospecific versus conspecific interactions. We also discuss the management implications of such evolutionary responses in species that have experienced rapid increases or decreases in density caused by human actions. PMID:25567977

Population density and suicide in Scotland.

PubMed

Stark, Cameron; Hopkins, Paddy; Gibbs, Diane; Belbin, Alan; Hay, Alistair

2007-01-01

Suicide rates among men have increased in Scotland while falling in neighbouring countries. A national suicide prevention strategy has been produced. Previous work found that some rural areas of Scotland had higher than average rates of male suicide and undetermined deaths. This article describes the association between population density and suicide and undetermined death rates in Scotland. Anonymised information on deaths from suicide and undetermined cause in Scotland were obtained from the General Registrar Office for 1981-1999, including information on postcode sector. Each postcode sector was assigned a deprivation and population density score. Loglinear models were used to examine the effects of time period (grouped into four periods), deprivation quintiles, population density (grouped into four categories) and their interactions in each sex in three age groups. A significance level of 5% was used throughout. Adjusted rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were based on models that included only significant factors and interactions. In men, there were higher rate ratios in the most densely populated and least densely populated quartiles, with intermediate rate ratios in other areas. There was no association with population density in women aged less than 25 years, a similar pattern to men in 25-44 year old women, and lower rates in rural areas in older women. Higher levels of deprivation were associated with higher rate ratios of suicide in both sexes and all age groups. Rate ratios over time increased in younger men and women, remained stable in older men, and declined in older women. Deprivation is associated with higher rates of suicide and undetermined deaths at all levels of population density and in all age groups. The highest rates of suicide among men are in the most and least densely populated areas, after adjusting for deprivation. The effect is different among women, with no effect among younger women, and lower rates among older women in areas with lower population density.

Conservation threats due to human-caused increases in fire frequency in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems.

PubMed

Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Hawbaker, Todd J; Stewart, Susan I

2009-06-01

Periodic wildfire is an important natural process in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, but increasing fire recurrence threatens the fragile ecology of these regions. Because most fires are human-caused, we investigated how human population patterns affect fire frequency. Prior research in California suggests the relationship between population density and fire frequency is not linear. There are few human ignitions in areas with low population density, so fire frequency is low. As population density increases, human ignitions and fire frequency also increase, but beyond a density threshold, the relationship becomes negative as fuels become sparser and fire suppression resources are concentrated. We tested whether this hypothesis also applies to the other Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of the world. We used global satellite databases of population, fire activity, and land cover to evaluate the spatial relationship between humans and fire in the world's five Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Both the mean and median population densities were consistently and substantially higher in areas with than without fire, but fire again peaked at intermediate population densities, which suggests that the spatial relationship is complex and nonlinear. Some land-cover types burned more frequently than expected, but no systematic differences were observed across the five regions. The consistent association between higher population densities and fire suggests that regardless of differences between land-cover types, natural fire regimes, or overall population, the presence of people in Mediterranean-climate regions strongly affects the frequency of fires; thus, population growth in areas now sparsely settled presents a conservation concern. Considering the sensitivity of plant species to repeated burning and the global conservation significance of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, conservation planning needs to consider the human influence on fire frequency. Fine-scale spatial analysis of relationships between people and fire may help identify areas where increases in fire frequency will threaten ecologically valuable areas. ©2009 Society for Conservation Biology.

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Interaction between PON1 and population density in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Diekstra, Frank P; Beleza-Meireles, Ana; Leigh, Nigel P; Shaw, Christopher E; Al-Chalabi, Ammar

2009-01-28

Paraoxonase polymorphisms have been associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Paraoxonases are detoxifying enzymes involved in the metabolism of organophosphates. We tested the hypothesis that genetic variation within paraoxonase genes would interact with the environmental exposure to paraoxonase substrates. We used population density in the location of residence of ALS patients as a surrogate marker for environmental exposure. Paraoxonase genotypes at previously associated single nucleotide polymorphisms rs662, rs854560, rs6954345, and rs11981433 were studied in 98 patients from the South East England ALS population-based register. A case-only analysis was carried out and median population density was used to categorize patients into rural or urban environments. We found a significant interaction with population density for marker rs854560 (L55M) in ALS.

Effects of habitat characteristics on the growth of carrier population leading to increased spread of typhoid fever: a model.

PubMed

Shukla, J B; Goyal, Ashish; Singh, Shikha; Chandra, Peeyush

2014-06-01

In this paper, a non-linear model is proposed and analyzed to study the effects of habitat characteristics favoring logistically growing carrier population leading to increased spread of typhoid fever. It is assumed that the cumulative density of habitat characteristics and the density of carrier population are governed by logistic models; the growth rate of the former increases as the density of human population increases. The model is analyzed by stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. The analysis shows that as the density of the infective carrier population increases due to habitat characteristics, the spread of typhoid fever increases in comparison with the case without such factors. Copyright © 2013 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wolbachia density changes seasonally amongst populations of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae)

PubMed Central

Sumi, Takuto; Miura, Kazuki; Miyatake, Takahisa

2017-01-01

Previous studies showed that the survival rate of Wolbachia decreases under high temperature in incubators. It is also known that a high density of Wolbachia in the host body reduces the host emergence rate, while low densities fail to change reproduction rates. However, few studies have examined the density of Wolbachia in hosts in the field. Here, we focus on Wolbachia infection of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae), which is distributed throughout the Japanese islands. We examined the rate and density of Wolbachia infection in the bodies of butterflies at thirteen locations in Japan. At seven of these places, we collected butterflies in different seasons to determine seasonal differences in the infection rate and density and found that Wolbachia density has seasonal differences within the same population. Moreover, to determine whether Wolbachia density has a geographical cline, we compared the infection density of Wolbachia amongst all geographical populations. In addition, we determined the sequences of Wolbachia wsp and host mtDNA CO1 haplotypes of all populations. The results showed that Wolbachia density increased in early summer and decreased in autumn. Further, the density of Wolbachia infecting the same strain of Z. maha varied amongst populations, although no tendency in geographical cline was observed. PMID:28403227

Wolbachia density changes seasonally amongst populations of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae).

PubMed

Sumi, Takuto; Miura, Kazuki; Miyatake, Takahisa

2017-01-01

Previous studies showed that the survival rate of Wolbachia decreases under high temperature in incubators. It is also known that a high density of Wolbachia in the host body reduces the host emergence rate, while low densities fail to change reproduction rates. However, few studies have examined the density of Wolbachia in hosts in the field. Here, we focus on Wolbachia infection of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae), which is distributed throughout the Japanese islands. We examined the rate and density of Wolbachia infection in the bodies of butterflies at thirteen locations in Japan. At seven of these places, we collected butterflies in different seasons to determine seasonal differences in the infection rate and density and found that Wolbachia density has seasonal differences within the same population. Moreover, to determine whether Wolbachia density has a geographical cline, we compared the infection density of Wolbachia amongst all geographical populations. In addition, we determined the sequences of Wolbachia wsp and host mtDNA CO1 haplotypes of all populations. The results showed that Wolbachia density increased in early summer and decreased in autumn. Further, the density of Wolbachia infecting the same strain of Z. maha varied amongst populations, although no tendency in geographical cline was observed.

Population-regulating processes during the adult phase in flatfish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rijnsdorp, A. D.

Flatfish support major fisheries and the study of regulatory processes are of paramount importance for evaluating the resilience of the resource to exploitation. This paper reviews the evidence for processes operating during the adult phase that may 1. generate interannual variability in recruitment; 2. contribute to population regulation through density-dependent growth, density-dependent ripening of adults and density-dependent egg production. With regard to (1), there is evidence that in the adult phase processes do occur that may generate recruitment variability through variation in size-specific fecundity, contraction of spawning season, reduction in egg quality, change in sex ratio and size composition of the adult population. However, time series of recruitment do not provide support for this hypothesis. With regard to (2), there is ample evidence that exploitation of flatfish coincides with an increase in growth, although the mechanisms involved are not always clear. The presence of density-dependent growth in the adult phase of unexploited populations appears to be the most likely explanation in some cases. From the early years of exploitation of flatfish stocks inhabiting cold waters, evidence exists that adult fish do not spawn each year. Fecundity schedules show annual variations, but the available information suggests that size-specific fecundity is stable over a broad range of population abundance and may only decrease at high population abundance. The analysis is complicated by the possibility of a trade-off between egg numbers and egg size. Nevertheless, a density-dependent decrease in growth will automatically result in a decrease in absolute fecundity because of the reduced body size. The potential contribution of these regulatory effects on population regulation is explored. Results indicate that density-dependent ripening and absolute fecundity, mediated through density-dependent growth, may control recruitment at high levels of population abundance. The effect of a density-dependent decrease in size-specific fecundity seems to play a minor role, although this role may become important at extremely high levels of population abundance.

Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent; Gimenez, Olivier

2015-06-01

Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

Density dependence and risk of extinction in a small population of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; Buenau, K.E.; VanBlaricom, G.

2004-01-01

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris (L.)) were hunted to extinction off the coast of Washington State early in the 20th century. A new population was established by translocations from Alaska in 1969 and 1970. The population, currently numbering at least 550 animals, A major threat to the population is the ongoing risk of majour oil spills in sea otter habitat. We apply population models to census and demographic data in order to evaluate the status of the population. We fit several density dependent models to test for density dependence and determine plausible values for the carrying capacity (K) by comparing model goodness of fit to an exponential model. Model fits were compared using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). A significant negative relationship was found between the population growth rate and population size (r2=0.27, F=5.57, df=16, p<0.05), suggesting density dependence in Washington state sea otters. Information criterion statistics suggest that the model is the most parsimonious, followed closely by the logistic Beverton-Holt model. Values of K ranged from 612 to 759 with best-fit parameter estimates for the Beverton-Holt model including 0.26 for r and 612 for K. The latest (2001) population index count (555) puts the population at 87-92% of the estimated carrying capacity, above the suggested range for optimum sustainable population (OSP). Elasticity analysis was conducted to examine the effects of proportional changes in vital rates on the population growth rate (??). The elasticity values indicate the population is most sensitive to changes in survival rates (particularly adult survival).

[Population density, age distribution and urbanisation as factors influencing the frequency of home visits--an analysis for Mecklenburg-West Pomerania].

PubMed

Heymann, R; Weitmann, K; Weiss, S; Thierfelder, D; Flessa, S; Hoffmann, W

2009-07-01

This study examines and compares the frequency of home visits by general practitioners in regions with a lower population density and regions with a higher population density. The discussion centres on the hypothesis whether the number of home visits in rural and remote areas with a low population density is, in fact, higher than in urbanised areas with a higher population density. The average age of the population has been considered in both cases. The communities of Mecklenburg West-Pomerania were aggregated into postal code regions. The analysis is based on these postal code regions. The average frequency of home visits per 100 inhabitants/km2 has been calculated via a bivariate, linear regression model with the population density and the average age for the postal code region as independent variables. The results are based on billing data of the year 2006 as provided by the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In a second step a variable which clustered the postal codes of urbanised areas was added to a multivariate model. The hypothesis of a negative correlation between the frequency of home visits and the population density of the areas examined cannot be confirmed for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Following the dichotomisation of the postal code regions into sparsely and densely populated areas, only the very sparsely populated postal code regions (less than 100 inhabitants/km2) show a tendency towards a higher frequency of home visits. Overall, the frequency of home visits in sparsely populated postal code regions is 28.9% higher than in the densely populated postal code regions (more than 100 inhabitants/km2), although the number of general practitioners is approximately the same in both groups. In part this association seems to be confirmed by a positive correlation between the average age in the individual postal code regions and the number of home visits carried out in the area. As calculated on the basis of the data at hand, only the very sparsely populated areas with a still gradually decreasing population show a tendency towards a higher frequency of home visits. According to the data of 2006, the number of home visits remains high in sparsely populated areas. It may increase in the near future as the number of general practitioners in these areas will gradually decrease while the number of immobile and older inhabitants will increase.

Econometric studies of urban population density: a survey.

PubMed

Mcdonald, J F

1989-01-01

This paper presents the 1st reasonably comprehensive survey of empirical research of urban population densities since the publication of the book by Edmonston in 1975. The survey summarizes contributions to empirical knowledge that have been made since 1975 and points toward possible areas for additional research. The paper also provides a brief interpretative intellectual history of the topic. It begins with a personal overview of research in the field. The next section discusses econometric issues that arise in the estimation of population density functions in which density is a function only of a distance to the central business district of the urban area. Section 4 summarizes the studies of a single urban area that went beyond the estimation of simple distance-density functions, and Section 5 discusses studies that sought to explain the variations across urban areas in population density patterns. McDonald refers to the standard theory of urban population density throughout the paper. This basic model is presented in the textbook by Mills and Hamilton and it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the model.

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

PubMed Central

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

Modelling population distribution using remote sensing imagery and location-based data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, J.; Prishchepov, A. V.

2017-12-01

Detailed spatial distribution of population density is essential for city studies such as urban planning, environmental pollution and city emergency, even estimate pressure on the environment and human exposure and risks to health. However, most of the researches used census data as the detailed dynamic population distribution are difficult to acquire, especially in microscale research. This research describes a method using remote sensing imagery and location-based data to model population distribution at the function zone level. Firstly, urban functional zones within a city were mapped by high-resolution remote sensing images and POIs. The workflow of functional zones extraction includes five parts: (1) Urban land use classification. (2) Segmenting images in built-up area. (3) Identification of functional segments by POIs. (4) Identification of functional blocks by functional segmentation and weight coefficients. (5) Assessing accuracy by validation points. The result showed as Fig.1. Secondly, we applied ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression to assess spatial nonstationary relationship between light digital number (DN) and population density of sampling points. The two methods were employed to predict the population distribution over the research area. The R²of GWR model were in the order of 0.7 and typically showed significant variations over the region than traditional OLS model. The result showed as Fig.2.Validation with sampling points of population density demonstrated that the result predicted by the GWR model correlated well with light value. The result showed as Fig.3. Results showed: (1) Population density is not linear correlated with light brightness using global model. (2) VIIRS night-time light data could estimate population density integrating functional zones at city level. (3) GWR is a robust model to map population distribution, the adjusted R2 of corresponding GWR models were higher than the optimal OLS models, confirming that GWR models demonstrate better prediction accuracy. So this method provide detailed population density information for microscale citizen studies.

The effects of urbanization on population density, occupancy, and detection probability of wild felids.

PubMed

Lewis, Jesse S; Logan, Kenneth A; Alldredge, Mat W; Bailey, Larissa L; VandeWoude, Sue; Crooks, Kevin R

2015-10-01

Urbanization is a primary driver of landscape conversion, with far-reaching effects on landscape pattern and process, particularly related to the population characteristics of animals. Urbanization can alter animal movement and habitat quality, both of which can influence population abundance and persistence. We evaluated three important population characteristics (population density, site occupancy, and species detection probability) of a medium-sized and a large carnivore across varying levels of urbanization. Specifically, we studied bobcat and puma populations across wildland, exurban development, and wildland-urban interface (WUI) sampling grids to test hypotheses evaluating how urbanization affects wild felid populations and their prey. Exurban development appeared to have a greater impact on felid populations than did habitat adjacent to a major urban area (i.e., WUI); estimates of population density for both bobcats and pumas were lower in areas of exurban development compared to wildland areas, whereas population density was similar between WUI and wildland habitat. Bobcats and pumas were less likely to be detected in habitat as the amount of human disturbance associated with residential development increased at a site, which was potentially related to reduced habitat quality resulting from urbanization. However, occupancy of both felids was similar between grids in both study areas, indicating that this population metric was less sensitive than density. At the scale of the sampling grid, detection probability for bobcats in urbanized habitat was greater than in wildland areas, potentially due to restrictive movement corridors and funneling of animal movements in landscapes influenced by urbanization. Occupancy of important felid prey (cottontail rabbits and mule deer) was similar across levels of urbanization, although elk occupancy was lower in urbanized areas. Our study indicates that the conservation of medium- and large-sized felids associated with urbanization likely will be most successful if large areas of wildland habitat are maintained, even in close proximity to urban areas, and wildland habitat is not converted to low-density residential development.

The effects of population growth on timber management and inventories in Virginia

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Rei Liu; J. Michael Foreman; Raymond M. Sheffield

1999-01-01

Expanding human populations may have important effects on the availability of timber from private lands in the South. To examine the effects of development on timber supply, the authors compared the density of populations and various site variables with expert opinions on the future location of commercial timberland for a study site in Virginia. Population density is a...

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

An improved probabilistic approach for linking progenitor and descendant galaxy populations using comoving number density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellons, Sarah; Torrey, Paul

2017-06-01

Galaxy populations at different cosmic epochs are often linked by cumulative comoving number density in observational studies. Many theoretical works, however, have shown that the cumulative number densities of tracked galaxy populations not only evolve in bulk, but also spread out over time. We present a method for linking progenitor and descendant galaxy populations which takes both of these effects into account. We define probability distribution functions that capture the evolution and dispersion of galaxy populations in number density space, and use these functions to assign galaxies at redshift zf probabilities of being progenitors/descendants of a galaxy population at another redshift z0. These probabilities are used as weights for calculating distributions of physical progenitor/descendant properties such as stellar mass, star formation rate or velocity dispersion. We demonstrate that this probabilistic method provides more accurate predictions for the evolution of physical properties than the assumption of either a constant number density or an evolving number density in a bin of fixed width by comparing predictions against galaxy populations directly tracked through a cosmological simulation. We find that the constant number density method performs least well at recovering galaxy properties, the evolving method density slightly better and the probabilistic method best of all. The improvement is present for predictions of stellar mass as well as inferred quantities such as star formation rate and velocity dispersion. We demonstrate that this method can also be applied robustly and easily to observational data, and provide a code package for doing so.

Increased natural mortality at low abundance can generate an Allee effect in a marine fish.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-10-01

Negative density-dependent regulation of population dynamics promotes population growth at low abundance and is therefore vital for recovery following depletion. Inversely, any process that reduces the compensatory density-dependence of population growth can negatively affect recovery. Here, we show that increased adult mortality at low abundance can reverse compensatory population dynamics into its opposite-a demographic Allee effect. Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks collapsed dramatically in the early 1990s and have since shown little sign of recovery. Many experienced dramatic increases in natural mortality, ostensibly attributable in some populations to increased predation by seals. Our findings show that increased natural mortality of a magnitude observed for overfished cod stocks has been more than sufficient to fundamentally alter the dynamics of density-dependent population regulation. The demographic Allee effect generated by these changes can slow down or even impede the recovery of depleted populations even in the absence of fishing.

Adaptation to larval crowding in Drosophila ananassae leads to the evolution of population stability.

PubMed

Dey, Snigdhadip; Bose, Joy; Joshi, Amitabh

2012-05-01

Density-dependent selection is expected to lead to population stability, especially if r and K tradeoff. Yet, there is no empirical evidence of adaptation to crowding leading to the evolution of stability. We show that populations of Drosophila ananassae selected for adaptation to larval crowding have higher K and lower r, and evolve greater stability than controls. We also show that increased population growth rates at high density can enhance stability, even in the absence of a decrease in r, by ensuring that the crowding adapted populations do not fall to very low sizes. We discuss our results in the context of traits known to have diverged between the selected and control populations, and compare our results with previous work on the evolution of stability in D. melanogaster. Overall, our results suggest that density-dependent selection may be an important factor promoting the evolution of relatively stable dynamics in natural populations.

Population control in symbiotic corals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Falkowski, P.G.; Dubinsky, Z.; Muscatine, L.

1993-10-01

Stability in symbiotic association requires control of population growth between symbionts. The population density of zooxanthellae per unit surface area of most symbiotic corals is remarkably consistant. How is the population density of zooxanthellae maintained and what happens to the symbiotic association if the balance between algae and host is perturbed. The answers to these question, examined in this paper, provide a framework for understanding how the size of the component populations is controlled in symbiotic associations. The topic areas covered include the following: carbon economy in a symbiotic coral; effects of nutrient enrichment; the chemostat model of population control;more » the effects of exposure to ammonium levels. Ammonium ions and organic materials are the factors which maintain the density of zooxanthellae. 32 refs., 5 figs.« less

Application of the stage-projection model with density-dependent fecundity to the population dynamics of Spanish ibex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escos, J.; Alados, C.L.; Emlen, John M.

1994-01-01

A stage-class population model with density-feedback term included was used to identify the most critical parameters determining the population dynamics of female Spanish ibex (Capra pyrenaica) in southern Spain. A population in the Cazorla and Segura mountains is rapidly declining, but the eastern Sierra Nevada population is growing. The stable population density obtained using estimated values of kid and adult survival (0.49 and 0.87, respectively) and with fecundity equal to 0.367 in the absence of density feedback is 12.7 or 16.82 individuals/km2, based on a non-time-lagged and a time-lagged model, respectively. Given the maximum estimate of fecundity and an adult survival rate of 0.87, a kid survival rate of at least 0.41 is required to avoid extinction. At the minimum fecundity estimate, kid survival would have to exceed 0.52. Elasticities were used to estimate the influence of variation in life-cycle parameters on the intrinsic rate of increase. Adult survival is the most critical parameter, while fecundity and juvenile survival are less important. An increase in adult survival from 0.87 to 0.91 in the Cazorla and Segura mountains population would almost stabilize the population in the absence of stochastic variation, while the same increase in the Sierra Nevada population would yield population growth of 4–5% per annum. A reduction in adult survival to 0.83 results in population decline in both cases.

Population density and seasonality effects on Sin Nombre virus transmission in North American deermice (Peromyscus maniculatus) in outdoor enclosures.

PubMed

Bagamian, Karoun H; Douglass, Richard J; Alvarado, Arlene; Kuenzi, Amy J; Amman, Brian R; Waller, Lance A; Mills, James N

2012-01-01

Surveys of wildlife host-pathogen systems often document clear seasonal variation in transmission; conclusions concerning the relationship between host population density and transmission vary. In the field, effects of seasonality and population density on natural disease cycles are challenging to measure independently, but laboratory experiments may poorly reflect what happens in nature. Outdoor manipulative experiments are an alternative that controls for some variables in a relatively natural environment. Using outdoor enclosures, we tested effects of North American deermouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) population density and season on transmission dynamics of Sin Nombre hantavirus. In early summer, mid-summer, late summer, and fall 2007-2008, predetermined numbers of infected and uninfected adult wild deermice were released into enclosures and trapped weekly or bi-weekly. We documented 18 transmission events and observed significant seasonal effects on transmission, wounding frequency, and host breeding condition. Apparent differences in transmission incidence or wounding frequency between high- and low-density treatments were not statistically significant. However, high host density was associated with a lower proportion of males with scrotal testes. Seasonality may have a stronger influence on disease transmission dynamics than host population density, and density effects cannot be considered independent of seasonality.

Population density of red langurs in Sabangau tropical peat-swamp forest, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia.

PubMed

Ehlers Smith, David A; Ehlers Smith, Yvette C

2013-08-01

Because of the large-scale destruction of Borneo's rainforests on mineral soils, tropical peat-swamp forests (TPSFs) are increasingly essential for conserving remnant biodiversity, particularly in the lowlands where the majority of habitat conversion has occurred. Consequently, effective strategies for biodiversity conservation are required, which rely on accurate population density and distribution estimates as a baseline. We sought to establish the first population density estimates of the endemic red langur (Presbytis rubicunda) in Sabangau TPSF, the largest remaining contiguous lowland forest-block on Borneo. Using Distance sampling principles, we conducted line transect surveys in two of Sabangau's three principle habitat sub-classes and calculated group density at 2.52 groups km⁻² (95% CI 1.56-4.08) in the mixed-swamp forest sub-class. Based on an average recorded group size of 6.95 individuals, population density was 17.51 ind km⁻², the second highest density recorded in this species. The accessible area of the tall-interior forest, however, was too disturbed to yield density estimates representative of the entire sub-class, and P. rubicunda was absent from the low-pole forest, likely as a result of the low availability of the species' preferred foods. This absence in 30% of Sabangau's total area indicates the importance of in situ population surveys at the habitat-specific level for accurately informing conservation strategies. We highlight the conservation value of TPSFs for P. rubicunda given the high population density and large areas remaining, and recommend 1) quantifying the response of P. rubicunda to the logging and burning of its habitats; 2) surveying degraded TPSFs for viable populations, and 3) effectively delineating TPSF sub-class boundaries from remote imagery to facilitate population estimates across the wider peat landscape, given the stark contrast in densities found across the habitat sub-classes of Sabangau. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multiscale habitat selection by Ruffed Grouse at low population densities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, G.S.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Banerjee, S.

2009-01-01

Theory suggests habitats should be chosen according to their relative evolutionary benefits and costs. It has been hypothesized that aspen (Populus spp.) forests provide optimal habitat for Ruffed Grouse (Bonasa umbellus). We used the low phase of a grouse population's cycle to assess the prediction that grouse should occupy aspen and avoid other forest types at low population density because of the presumptive fitness benefits of aspen. On the basis of our observations, we predict how the Ruffed Grouse population will increase in different forest types during the next cycle. In conifer (Pinus spp., Abies balsamea, Picea spp.)-dominated and mixed aspen-conifer landscapes, grouse densities were highest where forest types were evenly distributed. Within these landscapes, male Ruffed Grouse selected young aspen stands that were large and round or square. Although Ruffed Grouse selected young aspen stands strongly, contrary to prediction, they also used other forest types even when young aspen stands remained unoccupied. The relative densities of Ruffed Grouse in aspen and conifer forests indicated that the aspen forest's carrying capacities for grouse was higher than the conifer forest's at least during the low and declining phases of the grouse's cycle. On the basis of our observations, we predict that Ruffed Grouse populations in aspen-dominated landscapes will have higher population densities and fluctuate more than will populations in conifer-dominated landscapes. We suggest that studies of avian habitat selection would benefit from knowledge about the relative densities among habitats at differing population sizes because this information could provide insight into the role of habitat in regulating populations and clarify inferences from studies about habitat quality for birds. ?? 2009 by The Cooper Ornithological Society. All rights reserved.

Effects of host-plant population size and plant sex on a specialist leaf-miner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bañuelos, María-José; Kollmann, Johannes

2011-03-01

Animal population density has been related to resource patch size through various hypotheses such as those derived from island biogeography and resource concentration theory. This theoretical framework can be also applied to plant-herbivore interactions, and it can be modified by the sex of the host-plant, and density-dependent relationships. Leaf-miners are specialised herbivores that leave distinct traces on infested leaves in the form of egg scars, mines, signs of predation and emergence holes. This allows the life cycle of the insect to be reconstructed and the success at the different stages to be estimated. The main stages of the leaf-miner Phytomyza ilicis were recorded in eleven populations of the evergreen host Ilex aquifolium in Denmark. Survival rates were calculated and related to population size, sex of the host plant, and egg and mine densities. Host population size was negatively related to leaf-miner prevalence, with larger egg and mine densities in small populations. Percentage of eggs hatching and developing into mines, and percentage of adult flies emerging from mines also differed among host populations, but were not related to population size or host cover. Feeding punctures left by adults were marginally more frequent on male plants, whereas egg scars and mines were more common on females. Overall survival rate from egg stage to adult emergence was higher on female plants. Egg density was negatively correlated with hatching, while mine density was positively correlated with emergence of the larvae. The inverse effects of host population size were not in line with predictions based on island biogeography and resource concentration theory. We discuss how a thorough knowledge of the immigration behaviour of this fly might help to understand the patterns found.

Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

PubMed

Schmidt, Wolf-Peter; Suzuki, Motoi; Thiem, Vu Dinh; White, Richard G; Tsuzuki, Ataru; Yoshida, Lay-Myint; Yanai, Hideki; Haque, Ubydul; Tho, Le Huu; Anh, Dang Duc; Ariyoshi, Koya

2011-08-01

Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Population Density, Water Supply, and the Risk of Dengue Fever in Vietnam: Cohort Study and Spatial Analysis

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Wolf-Peter; Suzuki, Motoi; Dinh Thiem, Vu; White, Richard G.; Tsuzuki, Ataru; Yoshida, Lay-Myint; Yanai, Hideki; Haque, Ubydul; Huu Tho, Le; Anh, Dang Duc; Ariyoshi, Koya

2011-01-01

Background Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. Methods and Findings We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km2 prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. Conclusions Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21918642

Human population, urban settlement patterns and their impact on Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity.

PubMed

Tatem, Andrew J; Guerra, Carlos A; Kabaria, Caroline W; Noor, Abdisalan M; Hay, Simon I

2008-10-27

The efficient allocation of financial resources for malaria control and the optimal distribution of appropriate interventions require accurate information on the geographic distribution of malaria risk and of the human populations it affects. Low population densities in rural areas and high population densities in urban areas can influence malaria transmission substantially. Here, the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) global database of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys, medical intelligence and contemporary population surfaces are utilized to explore these relationships and other issues involved in combining malaria risk maps with those of human population distribution in order to define populations at risk more accurately. First, an existing population surface was examined to determine if it was sufficiently detailed to be used reliably as a mask to identify areas of very low and very high population density as malaria free regions. Second, the potential of international travel and health guidelines (ITHGs) for identifying malaria free cities was examined. Third, the differences in PfPR values between surveys conducted in author-defined rural and urban areas were examined. Fourth, the ability of various global urban extent maps to reliably discriminate these author-based classifications of urban and rural in the PfPR database was investigated. Finally, the urban map that most accurately replicated the author-based classifications was analysed to examine the effects of urban classifications on PfPR values across the entire MAP database. Masks of zero population density excluded many non-zero PfPR surveys, indicating that the population surface was not detailed enough to define areas of zero transmission resulting from low population densities. In contrast, the ITHGs enabled the identification and mapping of 53 malaria free urban areas within endemic countries. Comparison of PfPR survey results showed significant differences between author-defined 'urban' and 'rural' designations in Africa, but not for the remainder of the malaria endemic world. The Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) urban extent mask proved most accurate for mapping these author-defined rural and urban locations, and further sub-divisions of urban extents into urban and peri-urban classes enabled the effects of high population densities on malaria transmission to be mapped and quantified. The availability of detailed, contemporary census and urban extent data for the construction of coherent and accurate global spatial population databases is often poor. These known sources of uncertainty in population surfaces and urban maps have the potential to be incorporated into future malaria burden estimates. Currently, insufficient spatial information exists globally to identify areas accurately where population density is low enough to impact upon transmission. Medical intelligence does however exist to reliably identify malaria free cities. Moreover, in Africa, urban areas that have a significant effect on malaria transmission can be mapped.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

We present a study, based on simulations with SERDYCA, a spatially-explicit individual based model of rodent dynamics, on the connection between population persistence and the presence of inhomogeneities in the habitat. We are specifically interested on the effect that inhomogeneities that do not fragment the environment, have on population persistence. Our results suggest that a certain percentage of inhomogeneities can increase the average time to extinction of the population. Inhomogeneities decrease the population density and can increase the ratio of juveniles in the population thus providing a better chance for the population to restore itself after a severe period withmore » critically low population density. We call this the ''inhomogeneity localization effect''.« less

Breast density in screening mammography in Indian population - Is it different from western population?

PubMed

Singh, Tulika; Khandelwal, Niranjan; Singla, Veenu; Kumar, Dileep; Gupta, Madhu; Singh, Gurpreet; Bal, Amanjit

2018-05-01

Mammography is the only method presently considered appropriate for mass screening of breast cancer. However, higher breast density was strongly associated with lower mammographic sensitivity. Breast density is also identified as independent and strongest risk factors for breast cancer. Studies have shown women with high breast density have four to six times increased risk of breast cancer as compare to women with fatty breast. It varies between different age group it generally decreases with increasing age in postmenopausal women and it can be different in different ethnic groups and people from different geographical areas. This study evaluates the breast density in Indian population and its relationship with the age. We reviewed of all screening mammography examinations performed from May 2012 to January 2015 at our institute PGIMER, Chandigarh, INDIA. Descriptive analyses were used to examine the association between age and breast density. A total of 6132 screening mammograms were performed. Each subgroup categorized by decade of age. There was a significant inverse relationship between age and breast density (P < .001). Twenty-two percent of patients between 40 and 49 years old had dense breasts. This percentage decreased to 9% of women in their 50s. Only 7% of women in their 60s and 8% of women in their 70s had dense breasts. This data has been compared with the Western study done in New York University (NYU) shows there is significant difference (P value <.05) in the breast density in Indian and Western population with more Indians having ACR Grade 1 and 2 and Western population having 2 and 3. We found an inverse relationship between patient age and mammographic breast density. However, there were a large proportion of young women who had lower grades of mammographic density which could potentially benefit from the use of routine screening mammography in this subgroup of patients. Moreover, the breast density of Indian population is less when compared to the Western population. This might suggest that mammography is a good modality of choice for screening Indian population. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The relationship between male moth density and female mating success in invading populations of Lymantria dispar

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Ksenia S. Onufrieva; Kevin W. Thorpe

2012-01-01

The successful establishment of non-native species in new areas can be affected by many factors including the initial size of the founder population. Populations comprised of fewer individuals tend to be subject to stochastic forces and Allee effects (positive-density dependence), which can challenge the ability of small founder populations to establish in a new area....

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

PubMed

Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T N C

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

PubMed Central

Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species. PMID:28306735

Measurements of population densities of metastable and resonant levels of argon using laser induced fluorescence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nikolić, M.; Newton, J.; Sukenik, C. I.

2015-01-14

We present a new approach to measure population densities of Ar I metastable and resonant excited states in low temperature Ar plasmas at pressures higher than 1 Torr. This approach combines the time resolved laser induced fluorescence technique with the kinetic model of Ar. The kinetic model of Ar is based on calculating the population rates of metastable and resonant levels by including contributions from the processes that affect population densities of Ar I excited states. In particular, we included collisional quenching processes between atoms in the ground state and excited states, since we are investigating plasma at higher pressures. Wemore » also determined time resolved population densities of Ar I 2 p excited states by employing optical emission spectroscopy technique. Time resolved Ar I excited state populations are presented for the case of the post-discharge of the supersonic flowing microwave discharge at pressures of 1.7 and 2.3 Torr. The experimental set-up consists of a pulsed tunable dye laser operating in the near infrared region and a cylindrical resonance cavity operating in TE{sub 111} mode at 2.45 GHz. Results show that time resolved population densities of Ar I metastable and resonant states oscillate with twice the frequency of the discharge.« less

Estimating the influence of population density and dispersal behavior on the ability to detect and monitor Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) populations.

PubMed

Mercader, R J; Siegert, N W; McCullough, D G

2012-02-01

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees native to Asia, was first discovered in North America in 2002. Since then, A. planipennis has been found in 15 states and two Canadian provinces and has killed tens of millions of ash trees. Understanding the probability of detecting and accurately delineating low density populations of A. planipennis is a key component of effective management strategies. Here we approach this issue by 1) quantifying the efficiency of sampling nongirdled ash trees to detect new infestations of A. planipennis under varying population densities and 2) evaluating the likelihood of accurately determining the localized spread of discrete A. planipennis infestations. To estimate the probability a sampled tree would be detected as infested across a gradient of A. planipennis densities, we used A. planipennis larval density estimates collected during intensive surveys conducted in three recently infested sites with known origins. Results indicated the probability of detecting low density populations by sampling nongirdled trees was very low, even when detection tools were assumed to have three-fold higher detection probabilities than nongirdled trees. Using these results and an A. planipennis spread model, we explored the expected accuracy with which the spatial extent of an A. planipennis population could be determined. Model simulations indicated a poor ability to delineate the extent of the distribution of localized A. planipennis populations, particularly when a small proportion of the population was assumed to have a higher propensity for dispersal.

What makes a species common? No evidence of density-dependent recruitment or mortality of the sea urchin Diadema antillarum after the 1983-1984 mass mortality.

PubMed

Levitan, Don R; Edmunds, Peter J; Levitan, Keeha E

2014-05-01

A potential consequence of individuals compensating for density-dependent processes is that rare or infrequent events can produce profound and long-term shifts in species abundance. In 1983-1984 a mass mortality event reduced the numbers of the abundant sea urchin Diadema antillarum by 95-99% throughout the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Following this event, the abundance of macroalgae increased and the few surviving D. antillarum responded by increasing in body size and fecundity. These initial observations suggested that populations of D. antillarum could recover rapidly following release from food limitation. In contrast, published studies of field manipulations indicate that this species had traits making it resistant to density-dependent effects on offspring production and adult mortality; this evidence raises the possibility that density-independent processes might keep populations at a diminished level. Decadal-scale (1983-2011) monitoring of recruitment, mortality, population density and size structure of D. antillarum from St John, US Virgin Islands, indicates that population density has remained relatively stable and more than an order of magnitude lower than that before the mortality event of 1983-1984. We detected no evidence of density-dependent mortality or recruitment since this mortality event. In this location, model estimates of equilibrium population density, assuming density-independent processes and based on parameters generated over the first decade following the mortality event, accurately predict the low population density 20 years later (2011). We find no evidence to support the notion that this historically dominant species will rebound from this temporally brief, but spatially widespread, perturbation.

Exposure time of oral rabies vaccine baits relative to baiting density and raccoon population density.

PubMed

Blackwell, Bradley F; Seamans, Thomas W; White, Randolph J; Patton, Zachary J; Bush, Rachel M; Cepek, Jonathan D

2004-04-01

Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) baiting programs for control of raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies in the USA have been conducted or are in progress in eight states east of the Mississippi River. However, data specific to the relationship between raccoon population density and the minimum density of baits necessary to significantly elevate rabies immunity are few. We used the 22-km2 US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Plum Brook Station (PBS) in Erie County, Ohio, USA, to evaluate the period of exposure for placebo vaccine baits placed at a density of 75 baits/km2 relative to raccoon population density. Our objectives were to 1) estimate raccoon population density within the fragmented forest, old-field, and industrial landscape at PBS: and 2) quantify the time that placebo, Merial RABORAL V-RG vaccine baits were available to raccoons. From August through November 2002 we surveyed raccoon use of PBS along 19.3 km of paved-road transects by using a forward-looking infrared camera mounted inside a vehicle. We used Distance 3.5 software to calculate a probability of detection function by which we estimated raccoon population density from transect data. Estimated population density on PBS decreased from August (33.4 raccoons/km2) through November (13.6 raccoons/km2), yielding a monthly mean of 24.5 raccoons/km2. We also quantified exposure time for ORV baits placed by hand on five 1-km2 grids on PBS from September through October. An average 82.7% (SD = 4.6) of baits were removed within 1 wk of placement. Given raccoon population density, estimates of bait removal and sachet condition, and assuming 22.9% nontarget take, the baiting density of 75/ km2 yielded an average of 3.3 baits consumed per raccoon and the sachet perforated.

Evidence-based control of canine rabies: a critical review of population density reduction

PubMed Central

Morters, Michelle K; Restif, Olivier; Hampson, Katie; Cleaveland, Sarah; Wood, James L N; Conlan, Andrew J K

2013-01-01

Control measures for canine rabies include vaccination and reducing population density through culling or sterilization. Despite the evidence that culling fails to control canine rabies, efforts to reduce canine population density continue in many parts of the world. The rationale for reducing population density is that rabies transmission is density-dependent, with disease incidence increasing directly with host density. This may be based, in part, on an incomplete interpretation of historical field data for wildlife, with important implications for disease control in dog populations. Here, we examine historical and more recent field data, in the context of host ecology and epidemic theory, to understand better the role of density in rabies transmission and the reasons why culling fails to control rabies. We conclude that the relationship between host density, disease incidence and other factors is complex and may differ between species. This highlights the difficulties of interpreting field data and the constraints of extrapolations between species, particularly in terms of control policies. We also propose that the complex interactions between dogs and people may render culling of free-roaming dogs ineffective irrespective of the relationship between host density and disease incidence. We conclude that vaccination is the most effective means to control rabies in all species. PMID:23004351

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, L.C.; Weisenberger, M.E.

2005-01-01

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

Aphid vector population density determines the emergence of necrogenic satellite RNAs in populations of cucumber mosaic virus.

PubMed

Betancourt, Mónica; Fraile, Aurora; Milgroom, Michael G; García-Arenal, Fernando

2016-06-01

The satellite RNAs of cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) that induce systemic necrosis in tomato plants (N-satRNA) multiply to high levels in the infected host while severely depressing CMV accumulation and, hence, its aphid transmission efficiency. As N-satRNAs are transmitted into CMV particles, the conditions for N-satRNA emergence are not obvious. Model analyses with realistic parameter values have predicted that N-satRNAs would invade CMV populations only when transmission rates are high. Here, we tested this hypothesis experimentally by passaging CMV or CMV+N-satRNAs at low or high aphid densities (2 or 8 aphids/plant). As predicted, high aphid densities were required for N-satRNA emergence. The results showed that at low aphid densities, random effects due to population bottlenecks during transmission dominate the epidemiological dynamics of CMV/CMV+N-satRNA. The results suggest that maintaining aphid populations at low density will prevent the emergence of highly virulent CMV+N-satRNA isolates.

Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leirs, H.; Stenseth, N.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Verhagen, R.; Verheyen, W.

1997-01-01

Ecology has long been troubled by the controversy over how populations are regulated. Some ecologists focus on the role of environmental effects, whereas others argue that density-dependent feedback mechanisms are central. The relative importance of both processes is still hotly debated, but clear examples of both processes acting in the same population are rare. Keyfactor analysis (regression of population changes on possible causal factors) and time-series analysis are often used to investigate the presence of density dependence, but such approaches may be biased and provide no information on actual demographic rates. Here we report on both density-dependent and density-independent effects in a murid rodent pest species, the multimammate rat Mastomys natalensis (Smith, 1834), using statistical capture-recapture models. Both effects occur simultaneously, but we also demonstrate that they do not affect all demographic rates in the same way. We have incorporated the obtained estimates of demographic rates in a population dynamics model and show that the observed dynamics are affected by stabilizing nonlinear density-dependent components coupled with strong deterministic and stochastic seasonal components.

Determining the functional form of density dependence: deductive approaches for consumer-resource systems having a single resource.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2009-09-01

Consumer-resource models are used to deduce the functional form of density dependence in the consumer population. A general approach to determining the form of consumer density dependence is proposed; this involves determining the equilibrium (or average) population size for a series of different harvest rates. The relationship between a consumer's mortality and its equilibrium population size is explored for several one-consumer/one-resource models. The shape of density dependence in the resource and the shape of the numerical and functional responses all tend to be "inherited" by the consumer's density dependence. Consumer-resource models suggest that density dependence will very often have both concave and convex segments, something that is impossible under the commonly used theta-logistic model. A range of consumer-resource models predicts that consumer population size often declines at a decelerating rate with mortality at low mortality rates, is insensitive to or increases with mortality over a wide range of intermediate mortalities, and declines at a rapidly accelerating rate with increased mortality when mortality is high. This has important implications for management and conservation of natural populations.

Increased population density of neurosurgeons associated with decreased risk of death from motor vehicle accidents in the United States.

PubMed

Desai, Atman; Bekelis, Kimon; Zhao, Wenyan; Ball, Perry A

2012-09-01

Motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) are a leading cause of death and disability in young people. Given that a major cause of death from MVAs is traumatic brain injury, and neurosurgeons hold special expertise in this area relative to other members of a trauma team, the authors hypothesized that neurosurgeon population density would be related to reduced mortality from MVAs across US counties. The Area Resource File (2009-2010), a national health resource information database, was retrospectively analyzed. The primary outcome variable was the 3-year (2004-2006) average in MVA deaths per million population for each county. The primary independent variable was the density of neurosurgeons per million population in the year 2006. Multiple regression analysis was performed, adjusting for population density of general practitioners, urbanicity of the county, and socioeconomic status of the county. The median number of annual MVA deaths per million population, in the 3141 counties analyzed, was 226 (interquartile range [IQR] 151-323). The median number of neurosurgeons per million population was 0 (IQR 0-0), while the median number of general practitioners per million population was 274 (IQR 175-410). Using an unadjusted analysis, each increase of 1 neurosurgeon per million population was associated with 1.90 fewer MVA deaths per million population (p < 0.001). On multivariate adjusted analysis, each increase of 1 neurosurgeon per million population was associated with 1.01 fewer MVA deaths per million population (p < 0.001), with a respective decrease in MVA deaths of 0.03 per million population for an increase in 1 general practitioner (p = 0.007). Rural location, persistent poverty, and low educational level were all associated with significant increases in the rate of MVA deaths. A higher population density of neurosurgeons is associated with a significant reduction in deaths from MVAs, a major cause of death nationally. This suggests that the availability of local neurosurgeons is an important factor in the overall likelihood of survival from an MVA, and therefore indicates the importance of promoting neurosurgical education and practice throughout the country.

[Decline of Gammarus lacustris Sars (Crustacea: Amphipoda) population in the delta of the Selenga River].

PubMed

Matafonov, D V; Bazova, N V

2014-01-01

We determined the amphipod population characteristics from the water bodies of the delta of the Selenga River, where Gammarus lacustris Sars, 1863 was industrially harvested until the 1990s. In 2011, the population density of G. lacustris varied from 80 to 10 200 in Lapkhai Lake and from 80 to 2320 ind./m2 in Krivaya Channel. The low population density (< 40 ind./m2) in Gryaznoe Lake, together with the absence of the species in the waters of the former Zhilishchenskoe Lake, confirms the indications of population density decline in the associated waters of the delta. Population growth of G. lacustris was limited primarily by changes in the hydromorphology of the lakes and waterways due to floods of the early 1990s and the subsequent period of extremely low flow of the Selenga River.

Predator-induced synchrony in population oscillations of coexisting small mammal species.

PubMed

Korpimäki, Erkki; Norrdahl, Kai; Huitu, Otso; Klemola, Tero

2005-01-22

Comprehensive analyses of long-term (1977-2003) small-mammal abundance data from western Finland showed that populations of Microtus voles (field voles M. agrestis and sibling voles M. rossiaemeridionalis) voles, bank (Clethrionomys glareolus) and common shrews (Sorex araneus) fluctuated synchronously in 3 year population cycles. Time-series analyses indicated that interspecific synchrony is influenced strongly by density-dependent processes. Synchrony among Microtus and bank voles appeared additionally to be influenced by density-independent processes. To test whether interspecific synchronization through density-dependent processes is caused by predation, we experimentally reduced the densities of the main predators of small mammals in four large agricultural areas, and compared small mammal abundances in these to those in four control areas (2.5-3 km(2)) through a 3 year small-mammal population cycle. Predator reduction increased densities of the main prey species, Microtus voles, in all phases of the population cycle, while bank voles, the most important alternative prey of predators, responded positively only in the low and the increase phase. Manipulation also increased the autumn densities of water voles (Arvicola terrestris) in the increase phase of the cycle. No treatment effects were detected for common shrews or mice. Our results are in accordance with the alternative prey hypothesis, by which predators successively reduce the densities of both main and alternative prey species after the peak phase of small-mammal population cycles, thus inducing a synchronous low phase.

Fluctuations of population density in Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus morio) related to fruit availability in the Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia: a 10-year record including two mast fruitings and three other peak fruitings.

PubMed

Kanamori, Tomoko; Kuze, Noko; Bernard, Henry; Malim, Titol Peter; Kohshima, Shiro

2017-01-01

We investigated the population density of Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus morio) and fruit availability for 10 years (2005-2014), in primary lowland dipterocarp forests in the Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia. During the research period, two mast fruitings and three other peak fruiting events of different scales occurred in the study area. The orangutan population density, estimated every 2 months by the marked nest count method, changed between 0.3 and 4.4 ind/km 2 and the mean population density was 1.3 ind/km 2  ± SE 0.1 (n = 56). The population density increased markedly during mast and peak fruiting periods. A significant positive correlation was observed between the population density and fruit availability in the study period (Spearman, R = 0.3, P < 0.01, n = 56). During non-fruiting periods, however, no significant correlation was observed between them. These results suggest that the spatial difference in fruit availability during mast and peak fruiting periods was larger than during non-fruiting periods, and many orangutans temporarily moved to the study site from the surrounding areas seeking fruit.

The landscape configuration of zoonotic transmission of Ebola virus disease in West and Central Africa: interaction between population density and vegetation cover.

PubMed

Walsh, Michael G; Haseeb, Ma

2015-01-01

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is an emerging infectious disease of zoonotic origin that has been responsible for high mortality and significant social disruption in West and Central Africa. Zoonotic transmission of EVD requires contact between susceptible human hosts and the reservoir species for Ebolaviruses, which are believed to be fruit bats. Nevertheless, features of the landscape that may facilitate such points of contact have not yet been adequately identified. Nor have spatial dependencies between zoonotic EVD transmission and landscape structures been delineated. This investigation sought to describe the spatial relationship between zoonotic EVD transmission events, or spillovers, and population density and vegetation cover. An inhomogeneous Poisson process model was fitted to all precisely geolocated zoonotic transmissions of EVD in West and Central Africa. Population density was strongly associated with spillover; however, there was significant interaction between population density and green vegetation cover. In areas of very low population density, increasing vegetation cover was associated with a decrease in risk of zoonotic transmission, but as population density increased in a given area, increasing vegetation cover was associated with increased risk of zoonotic transmission. This study showed that the spatial dependencies of Ebolavirus spillover were associated with the distribution of population density and vegetation cover in the landscape, even after controlling for climate and altitude. While this is an observational study, and thus precludes direct causal inference, the findings do highlight areas that may be at risk for zoonotic EVD transmission based on the spatial configuration of important features of the landscape.

Discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for solving population density functions of cortical pyramidal and thalamic neuronal populations.

PubMed

Huang, Chih-Hsu; Lin, Chou-Ching K; Ju, Ming-Shaung

2015-02-01

Compared with the Monte Carlo method, the population density method is efficient for modeling collective dynamics of neuronal populations in human brain. In this method, a population density function describes the probabilistic distribution of states of all neurons in the population and it is governed by a hyperbolic partial differential equation. In the past, the problem was mainly solved by using the finite difference method. In a previous study, a continuous Galerkin finite element method was found better than the finite difference method for solving the hyperbolic partial differential equation; however, the population density function often has discontinuity and both methods suffer from a numerical stability problem. The goal of this study is to improve the numerical stability of the solution using discontinuous Galerkin finite element method. To test the performance of the new approach, interaction of a population of cortical pyramidal neurons and a population of thalamic neurons was simulated. The numerical results showed good agreement between results of discontinuous Galerkin finite element and Monte Carlo methods. The convergence and accuracy of the solutions are excellent. The numerical stability problem could be resolved using the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method which has total-variation-diminishing property. The efficient approach will be employed to simulate the electroencephalogram or dynamics of thalamocortical network which involves three populations, namely, thalamic reticular neurons, thalamocortical neurons and cortical pyramidal neurons. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Balance between facilitation and resource competition determines biomass-density relationships in plant populations.

PubMed

Chu, Cheng-Jin; Maestre, Fernando T; Xiao, Sa; Weiner, Jacob; Wang, You-Shi; Duan, Zheng-Hu; Wang, Gang

2008-11-01

Theories based on competition for resources predict a monotonic negative relationship between population density and individual biomass in plant populations. They do not consider the role of facilitative interactions, which are known to be important in high stress environments. Using an individual-based 'zone-of-influence' model, we investigated the hypothesis that the balance between facilitative and competitive interactions determines biomass-density relationships. We tested model predictions with a field experiment on the clonal grass Elymus nutans in an alpine meadow. In the model, the relationship between mean individual biomass and density shifted from monotonic to humped as abiotic stress increased. The model results were supported by the field experiment, in which the greatest individual and population biomass were found at intermediate densities in a high-stress alpine habitat. Our results show that facilitation can affect biomass-density relationships.

Cannibalism in invasive, native and biocontrol populations of the harlequin ladybird.

PubMed

Tayeh, Ashraf; Estoup, Arnaud; Lombaert, Eric; Guillemaud, Thomas; Kirichenko, Natalia; Lawson-Handley, Lori; De Clercq, Patrick; Facon, Benoît

2014-02-05

Cannibalism is widespread in both vertebrates and invertebrates but its extent is variable between and within species. Cannibalism depends on population density and nutritional conditions, and could be beneficial during colonisation of new environments. Empirical studies are needed to determine whether this trait might facilitate invasion of a new area in natural systems. We investigated whether the propensity for cannibalism in H. axyridis differs both between native and invasive populations and between invasive populations from the core and from the front of the invasive area in Western Europe. We also compared the propensity for cannibalism of these natural populations with that of laboratory-reared biocontrol populations. We measured the cannibalism rates of eggs by first instar larvae and adult females at two different individual densities of ladybirds from three types of population (invasive, native and biocontrol), in laboratory-controlled conditions. Cannibalism was significantly greater in larvae from invasive populations compared to native or biocontrol populations, but there was no difference in cannibalism rates between populations from the core or front of the invaded range. Cannibalism was significantly lower in larvae from biocontrol populations compared to wild (invasive and native) populations. No differences in cannibalism rates of adult females were found between any populations. While high population density significantly increased cannibalism in both larvae and adults, the norm of reaction of cannibalism to individual density did not change significantly during the invasion and/or laboratory rearing processes. This study is the first to provide evidence for a higher propensity for cannibalism in invasive populations compared to native ones. Our experiments also shed light on the difference in cannibalism evolution with respect to life stages. However, we are still at an early stage in understanding the underlying mechanisms and several different research perspectives are needed to determine whether the higher propensity for cannibalism is a general feature of the invasion process.

Cannibalism in invasive, native and biocontrol populations of the harlequin ladybird

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cannibalism is widespread in both vertebrates and invertebrates but its extent is variable between and within species. Cannibalism depends on population density and nutritional conditions, and could be beneficial during colonisation of new environments. Empirical studies are needed to determine whether this trait might facilitate invasion of a new area in natural systems. We investigated whether the propensity for cannibalism in H. axyridis differs both between native and invasive populations and between invasive populations from the core and from the front of the invasive area in Western Europe. We also compared the propensity for cannibalism of these natural populations with that of laboratory-reared biocontrol populations. We measured the cannibalism rates of eggs by first instar larvae and adult females at two different individual densities of ladybirds from three types of population (invasive, native and biocontrol), in laboratory-controlled conditions. Results Cannibalism was significantly greater in larvae from invasive populations compared to native or biocontrol populations, but there was no difference in cannibalism rates between populations from the core or front of the invaded range. Cannibalism was significantly lower in larvae from biocontrol populations compared to wild (invasive and native) populations. No differences in cannibalism rates of adult females were found between any populations. While high population density significantly increased cannibalism in both larvae and adults, the norm of reaction of cannibalism to individual density did not change significantly during the invasion and/or laboratory rearing processes. Conclusion This study is the first to provide evidence for a higher propensity for cannibalism in invasive populations compared to native ones. Our experiments also shed light on the difference in cannibalism evolution with respect to life stages. However, we are still at an early stage in understanding the underlying mechanisms and several different research perspectives are needed to determine whether the higher propensity for cannibalism is a general feature of the invasion process. PMID:24495338

Compensatory mortality in mule deer populations: Final technical report, January 1, 1985--December 31, 1988

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, G.C.

1989-03-01

The hypothesis of compensatory mortality is critical to understanding population dynamics of wildlife species. This knowledge is vital regardless of whether populations are managed for recreational hunting or habitats are altered via energy development projects. This research tested for compensatory mortality in the juvenile (fawn) portion of a mule deer population. Two experimental manipulations were used employing radio-collared deer. In this study, /approximately/20% of the population was moved from a treatment area and fawn survival rates compared to those on the control area. In the pasture study, deer were stocked in pastures at 3 densities of 44, 89, and 139more » deer/km/sup 2/. Lowering of density in the field portion of the study did not appear to affect fawn survival. This is attributed to not removing enough animals for existing range conditions that have been imparted by high deer densities during the last 3 decades. Also, the effect of removal was tempered by an increase in yearling males brought about by antler-point restrictions during the harvest. Deer removed from the treatment area were used to stock 3 large pastures at low, medium, and high densities of 44, 89, and 139 deer/km/sup 2/, respectively. Fawn survival was significantly different between densities (P < 0.001), with the low density pasture showing the highest survival and the high density pasture showing the lowest survival. The main cause of death was starvation suggesting that food supplies were limiting. A strong compensatory mortality process is operating in this mule deer population as evidenced by the pasture data. We did not detect this process in the field portion of the study because the removal of /approximately/20% of the population was insufficient to allow an immediate improvement in fawn nutrition. The density-dependent survival response in the controlled pasture study demonstrated that compensatory mortality is operating in this population. 57 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Predation and fragmentation portrayed in the statistical structure of prey time series

PubMed Central

Hendrichsen, Ditte K; Topping, Chris J; Forchhammer, Mads C

2009-01-01

Background Statistical autoregressive analyses of direct and delayed density dependence are widespread in ecological research. The models suggest that changes in ecological factors affecting density dependence, like predation and landscape heterogeneity are directly portrayed in the first and second order autoregressive parameters, and the models are therefore used to decipher complex biological patterns. However, independent tests of model predictions are complicated by the inherent variability of natural populations, where differences in landscape structure, climate or species composition prevent controlled repeated analyses. To circumvent this problem, we applied second-order autoregressive time series analyses to data generated by a realistic agent-based computer model. The model simulated life history decisions of individual field voles under controlled variations in predator pressure and landscape fragmentation. Analyses were made on three levels: comparisons between predated and non-predated populations, between populations exposed to different types of predators and between populations experiencing different degrees of habitat fragmentation. Results The results are unambiguous: Changes in landscape fragmentation and the numerical response of predators are clearly portrayed in the statistical time series structure as predicted by the autoregressive model. Populations without predators displayed significantly stronger negative direct density dependence than did those exposed to predators, where direct density dependence was only moderately negative. The effects of predation versus no predation had an even stronger effect on the delayed density dependence of the simulated prey populations. In non-predated prey populations, the coefficients of delayed density dependence were distinctly positive, whereas they were negative in predated populations. Similarly, increasing the degree of fragmentation of optimal habitat available to the prey was accompanied with a shift in the delayed density dependence, from strongly negative to gradually becoming less negative. Conclusion We conclude that statistical second-order autoregressive time series analyses are capable of deciphering interactions within and across trophic levels and their effect on direct and delayed density dependence. PMID:19419539

Can the source–sink hypothesis explain macrofaunal abundance patterns in the abyss? A modelling test

PubMed Central

Hardy, Sarah M.; Smith, Craig R.; Thurnherr, Andreas M.

2015-01-01

Low food availability is a major structuring force in deep-sea benthic communities, sustaining only very low densities of organisms in parts of the abyss. These low population densities may result in an Allee effect, whereby local reproductive success is inhibited, and populations are maintained by larval dispersal from bathyal slopes. This slope–abyss source–sink (SASS) hypothesis suggests that the abyssal seafloor constitutes a vast sink habitat with macrofaunal populations sustained only by an influx of larval ‘refugees' from source areas on continental slopes, where higher productivity sustains greater population densities. Abyssal macrofaunal population densities would thus be directly related to larval inputs from bathyal source populations. We evaluate three predictions derived from the SASS hypothesis: (i) slope-derived larvae can be passively transported to central abyssal regions within a single larval period, (ii) projected larval export from slopes to the abyss reproduces global patterns of macrofaunal abundance and (iii) macrofaunal abundance decreases with distance from the continental slope. We find that abyssal macrofaunal populations are unlikely to be sustained solely through influx of larvae from slope sources. Rather, local reproduction probably sustains macrofaunal populations in relatively high-productivity abyssal areas, which must also be considered as potential larval source areas for more food-poor abyssal regions. PMID:25948686

Integration of Density Dependence and Concentration Response Models Provides an Ecologically Relevant Assessment of Populations Exposed to Toxicants

EPA Science Inventory

The assessment of toxic exposure on wildlife populations involves the integration of organism level effects measured in toxicity tests (e.g., chronic life cycle) and population models. These modeling exercises typically ignore density dependence, primarily because information on ...

Evidence of a High Density Population of Harvested Leopards in a Montane Environment

PubMed Central

Chase Grey, Julia N.; Kent, Vivien T.; Hill, Russell A.

2013-01-01

Populations of large carnivores can persist in mountainous environments following extensive land use change and the conversion of suitable habitat for agriculture and human habitation in lower lying areas of their range. The significance of these populations is poorly understood, however, and little attention has focussed on why certain mountainous areas can hold high densities of large carnivores and what the conservation implications of such populations might be. Here we use the leopard (Panthera pardus) population in the western Soutpansberg Mountains, South Africa, as a model system and show that montane habitats can support high numbers of leopards. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis recorded the highest density of leopards reported outside of state-protected areas in sub-Saharan Africa. This density represents a temporally high local abundance of leopards and we explore the explanations for this alongside some of the potential conservation implications. PMID:24349375

Effects of urban sprawl on obesity.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhenxiang; Kaestner, Robert

2010-12-01

In this paper, we examine the effect of changes in population density-urban sprawl-between 1970 and 2000 on BMI and obesity of residents in metropolitan areas in the U.S. We address the possible endogeneity of population density by using a two-step instrumental variables approach. We exploit the plausibly exogenous variation in population density caused by the expansion of the U.S. Interstate Highway System, which largely followed the original 1947 plan for the Interstate Highway System. We find a negative association between population density and obesity, and estimates are robust across a wide range of specifications. Estimates indicate that if the average metropolitan area had not experienced the decline in the proportion of population living in dense areas over the last 30 years, the rate of obesity would have been reduced by approximately 13%. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influences of population size and density on birthplace effects.

PubMed

Hancock, David J; Coutinho, Patrícia; Côté, Jean; Mesquita, Isabel

2018-01-01

Contextual influences on talent development (e.g., birthplace effects) have become a topic of interest for sport scientists. Birthplace effects occur when being born in a certain city size leads to participation or performance advantages, typically for those born in smaller or mid-sized cities. The purpose of this study was to investigate birthplace effects in Portuguese volleyball players by analysing city size, as well as population density - an important but infrequently used variable. Participants included 4062 volleyball players (M age  = 33), 53.2% of whom were men. Using Portuguese national census data from 1981, we compared participants (within each sex) across five population categories. In addition, we used ANOVAs to study expertise and population density. Results indicated that men and women athletes born in districts of 200,000-399,999 were 2.4 times more likely to attain elite volleyball status, while all other districts decreased the odds of expert development. For men, being born in high-density areas resulted in less chance of achieving expertise, whereas there were no differences for women. The results suggest that athletes' infrastructure and social structure play an important role in talent development, and that these structures are influenced by total population and population density, respectively.

Peromyscus ranges at high and low population densities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stickel, L.F.

1960-01-01

Live-trapping studies at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Maryland, showed that the ranges of wood mice were larger when the population density was lower and smaller when the population density was higher. When the population density was about 1.3 male mice per acre in June 1954, the average distance recorded between traps after four or more captures was 258 feet. When the population density was about 4.1 male mice per acre in June 1957, the average distance was 119 feet. Differences were statistically significant. Females were so scarce at the low that comparisons could not be made for them. Examples from the literature also show that home range of a species may vary with population density. Other examples show that the range may vary with habitat, breeding condition and food supply. These variations in range size reduce the reliability of censuses in which relative methods are used: Lines of traps sample the population of a larger area when ranges are large than they do when ranges are small. Direct comparisons therefore will err in some degree. Error may be introduced also when line-trap data are transformed to per acre figures on the basis of home-range estimates made by area-trapping at another place or time. Variation in range size also can make it necessary to change area-trapping plans, for larger quadrants are needed when ranges are larger. It my be necessary to set traps closer together when ranges are small than when ranges are large.

Quantitative Relationship of Soil Texture with the Observed Population Density Reduction of Heterodera glycines after Annual Corn Rotation in Nebraska

PubMed Central

Pérez-Hernández, Oscar; Giesler, Loren J.

2014-01-01

Soil texture has been commonly associated with the population density of Heterodera glycines (soybean cyst nematode: SCN), but such an association has been mainly described in terms of textural classes. In this study, multivariate analysis and a generalized linear modeling approach were used to elucidate the quantitative relationship of soil texture with the observed SCN population density reduction after annual corn rotation in Nebraska. Forty-five commercial production fields were sampled in 2009, 2010, and 2011 and SCN population density (eggs/100 cm3 of soil) for each field was determined before (Pi) and after (Pf) annual corn rotation from ten 3 × 3-m sampling grids. Principal components analysis revealed that, compared with silt and clay, sand had a stronger association with SCN Pi and Pf. Cluster analysis using the average linkage method and confirmed through 1,000 bootstrap simulations identified two groups: one corresponding to predominant silt-and-clay fields and other to sand-predominant fields. This grouping suggested that SCN relative percent population decline was higher in the sandy than in the silt-and-clay predominant group. However, when groups were compared for their SCN population density reduction using Pf as the response, Pi as a covariate, and incorporating the year and field variability, a negative binomial generalized linear model indicated that the SCN population density reduction was not statistically different between the sand-predominant field group and the silt-and-clay predominant group. PMID:24987160

Latent population responses of summer birds to a catastrophic, climatological event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopf, Fritz L.; Sedgwick, James A.

1987-01-01

Catastrophic events can create ecological crunches for avian populations. Ornithologists generally assume that such events elicit immediate, dramatic declines in populations followed by rapid recolonization of a site with habitat recovery. Despite total inundation of habitats within the South Platte floodplain of eastern Colorado during the 1983 breeding season, populations of Brown Thrashers (Toxostoma rufum) and Rufoussided Towhees (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) did not decline significantly from 1982 densities. However, populations of both species declined significantly in 1984 and towhee populations remained low in 1985. These observations support speculations from recent studies of shrubsteppe bird populations that site tenacity may play a stronger role in determining annual densities of breeding birds than previously realized.

Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

2015-01-01

Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

Linking vital rates to invasiveness of a perennial herb.

PubMed

Ramula, Satu

2014-04-01

Invaders generally show better individual performance than non-invaders and, therefore, vital rates (survival, growth, fecundity) could potentially be used to predict species invasiveness outside their native range. Comparative studies have usually correlated vital rates with the invasiveness status of species, while few studies have investigated them in relation to population growth rate. Here, I examined the influence of five vital rates (plant establishment, survival, growth, flowering probability, seed production) and their variability (across geographic regions, habitat types, population sizes and population densities) on population growth rate (λ) using data from 37 populations of an invasive, iteroparous herb (Lupinus polyphyllus) in a part of its invaded range in Finland. Variation in vital rates was often related to habitat type and population density. The performance of the populations varied from declining to rapidly increasing independently of habitat type, population size or population density, but differed between regions. The population growth rate increased linearly with plant establishment, and with the survival and growth of vegetative individuals, while the survival of flowering individuals and annual seed production were not related to λ. The vital rates responsible for rapid population growth varied among populations. These findings highlight the importance of both regional and local conditions to plant population dynamics, demonstrating that individual vital rates do not necessarily correlate with λ. Therefore, to understand the role of individual vital rates in a species ability to invade, it is necessary to quantify their effect on population growth rate.

What does the fox say? Monitoring antimicrobial resistance in the environment using wild red foxes as an indicator.

PubMed

Mo, Solveig Sølverød; Urdahl, Anne Margrete; Madslien, Knut; Sunde, Marianne; Nesse, Live L; Slettemeås, Jannice Schau; Norström, Madelaine

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate and compare the occurrence of AMR in wild red foxes in relation to human population densities. Samples from wild red foxes (n = 528) included in the Norwegian monitoring programme on antimicrobial resistance in bacteria from food, feed and animals were included. All samples were divided into three different groups based on population density in the municipality where the foxes were hunted. Of the 528 samples included, 108 (20.5%), 328 (62.1%) and 92 (17.4%) originated from areas with low, medium and high population density, respectively. A single faecal swab was collected from each fox. All samples were plated out on a selective medium for Enterobacteriaceae for culturing followed by inclusion and susceptibility testing of one randomly selected Escherichia coli to assess the overall occurrence of AMR in the Gram-negative bacterial population. Furthermore, the samples were subjected to selective screening for detection of E. coli displaying resistance towards extended-spectrum cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones. In addition, a subset of samples (n = 387) were subjected to selective culturing to detect E. coli resistant to carbapenems and colistin, and enterococci resistant to vancomycin. Of these, 98 (25.3%), 200 (51.7%) and 89 (23.0%) originated from areas with low, medium and high population density, respectively. Overall, the occurrence of AMR in indicator E. coli from wild red foxes originating from areas with different human population densities in Norway was low to moderate (8.8%). The total occurrence of AMR was significantly higher; χ2 (1,N = 336) = 6.53, p = 0.01 in areas with high population density compared to areas with medium population density. Similarly, the occurrence of fluoroquinolone resistant E. coli isolated using selective detection methods was low in areas with low population density and more common in areas with medium or high population density. In conclusion, we found indications that occurrence of AMR in wild red foxes in Norway is associated with human population density. Foxes living in urban areas are more likely to be exposed to AMR bacteria and resistance drivers from food waste, garbage, sewage, waste water and consumption of contaminated prey compared to foxes living in remote areas. The homerange of red fox has been shown to be limited thereby the red fox constitutes a good sentinel for monitoring antimicrobial resistance in the environment. Continuous monitoring on the occurrence of AMR in different wild species, ecological niches and geographical areas can facilitate an increased understanding of the environmental burden of AMR in the environment. Such information is needed to further assess the impact for humans, and enables implementation of possible control measures for AMR in humans, animals and the environment in a true "One Health" approach.

Development of a spatially distributed model of fish population density for habitat assessment of rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sui, Pengzhe; Iwasaki, Akito; Ryo, Masahiro; Saavedra, Oliver; Yoshimura, Chihiro

2013-04-01

Flow conditions play an important role in sustaining biodiversity of river ecosystem. However, their relations to freshwater fishes, especially to fish population density, have not been clearly described. This study, therefore, aimed to propose a new methodology to quantitatively link habitat conditions, including flow conditions and other physical conditions, to population density of fish species. We developed a basin-scale fish distribution model by integrating the concept of habitat suitability assessment with a distributed hydrological model (DHM) in order to estimate fish population density with particular attention to flow conditions. Generalized linear model (GLM) was employed to evaluate the relationship between population density of fish species and major environmental factors. The target basin was Sagami River in central Japan, where the river reach was divided into 10 sections by estuary, confluences of tributaries, and river-crossing structures (dams, weirs). The DHM was employed to simulate river discharge from 1998 to 2005, which was used to calculate 10 flow indices including mean discharge, 25th and 75th percentile discharge, duration of low and high flows, number of floods. In addition, 5 water quality parameters and 13 other physical conditions (such as basin area, river width, mean diameter of riverbed material, and number of river-crossing structures upstream and downstream) of each river section were considered as environmental variables. In case of Sagami River, 10 habitat variables among them were then selected based on their correlations to avoid multicollinearity. Finally, the best GLM was developed for each species based on Akaike's information criterion. As results, population densities of 16 fish species in Sagami River were modelled, and correlation coefficients between observed and calculated population densities for 10 species were more than 0.70. The key habitat factors for population density varied among fish species. Minimum discharge (MID) was found to be positively correlated to 9 among 16 fish species. For duration of high and low flows (DHF and DLF), longer DHF/DLF was corresponded to lower population density for 7/6 fish species, respectively, such as Rhinogobius kurodai and Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis. Among physical habitat conditions, sinuosity index (SI, the ratio between actual river section length and straight line length) seems to be the most important parameter for fish population density in Sagami River basin, since it affects 12 out of 16 fish species, followed by mean longitudinal slope (S) and number of downstream dams (NLD). Above results demonstrated the applicability of fish distribution model to provide quantitative information on flow conditions required to maintain fish population, which enabled us to evaluate and project ecological consequences of water resource management policy, such as flood management and water withdrawal.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics.

PubMed

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500  m ) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

A Spatio-Temporally Explicit Random Encounter Model for Large-Scale Population Surveys

PubMed Central

Jousimo, Jussi; Ovaskainen, Otso

2016-01-01

Random encounter models can be used to estimate population abundance from indirect data collected by non-invasive sampling methods, such as track counts or camera-trap data. The classical Formozov–Malyshev–Pereleshin (FMP) estimator converts track counts into an estimate of mean population density, assuming that data on the daily movement distances of the animals are available. We utilize generalized linear models with spatio-temporal error structures to extend the FMP estimator into a flexible Bayesian modelling approach that estimates not only total population size, but also spatio-temporal variation in population density. We also introduce a weighting scheme to estimate density on habitats that are not covered by survey transects, assuming that movement data on a subset of individuals is available. We test the performance of spatio-temporal and temporal approaches by a simulation study mimicking the Finnish winter track count survey. The results illustrate how the spatio-temporal modelling approach is able to borrow information from observations made on neighboring locations and times when estimating population density, and that spatio-temporal and temporal smoothing models can provide improved estimates of total population size compared to the FMP method. PMID:27611683

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km. PMID:28878987

Individual differences, density dependence and offspring birth traits in a population of red deer

PubMed Central

Stopher, Katie V; Pemberton, Josephine M; Clutton-Brock, Tim H; Coulson, Tim

2008-01-01

Variation between individuals is an essential component of natural selection and evolutionary change, but it is only recently that the consequences of persistent differences between individuals on population dynamics have been considered. In particular, few authors have addressed whether interactions exist between individual quality and environmental variation. In part, this is due to the difficulties of collecting sufficient data, but also the challenge of defining individual quality. Using a long-established study population of red deer, Cervus elaphus, inhabiting the North Block of the Isle of Rum, and three quality measures, this paper investigates how differences in maternal quality affect variation in birth body mass and date, as population density varies, and how this differs depending on the sex of the offspring and the maternal quality measure used. Significant interactions between maternal quality, measured as a hind's total contribution to population growth, and population density are reported for birth mass, but only for male calves. Analyses using dominance or age at primiparity to define maternal quality showed no significant interactions with population density, highlighting the difficulties of defining a consistent measure of individual quality. PMID:18522909

Population Density and Seasonality Effects on Sin Nombre Virus Transmission in North American Deermice (Peromyscus maniculatus) in Outdoor Enclosures

PubMed Central

Bagamian, Karoun H.; Douglass, Richard J.; Alvarado, Arlene; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Amman, Brian R.; Waller, Lance A.; Mills, James N.

2012-01-01

Surveys of wildlife host-pathogen systems often document clear seasonal variation in transmission; conclusions concerning the relationship between host population density and transmission vary. In the field, effects of seasonality and population density on natural disease cycles are challenging to measure independently, but laboratory experiments may poorly reflect what happens in nature. Outdoor manipulative experiments are an alternative that controls for some variables in a relatively natural environment. Using outdoor enclosures, we tested effects of North American deermouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) population density and season on transmission dynamics of Sin Nombre hantavirus. In early summer, mid-summer, late summer, and fall 2007–2008, predetermined numbers of infected and uninfected adult wild deermice were released into enclosures and trapped weekly or bi-weekly. We documented 18 transmission events and observed significant seasonal effects on transmission, wounding frequency, and host breeding condition. Apparent differences in transmission incidence or wounding frequency between high- and low-density treatments were not statistically significant. However, high host density was associated with a lower proportion of males with scrotal testes. Seasonality may have a stronger influence on disease transmission dynamics than host population density, and density effects cannot be considered independent of seasonality. PMID:22768034

Perceived Density, Social Interaction and Morale in New South Wales Rural Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Argent, Neil

2008-01-01

This paper explores the relationships between population density, social interaction patterns, and morale in rural communities. It tests two apparently competing hypotheses concerning rural population density, social interaction patterns and overall levels of morale: one, that low (and rapidly declining) rural densities lead to feelings of…

The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

2011-11-01

Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Is Urografin density gradient centrifugation suitable to separate nonculturable cells from Escherichia coli populations?

PubMed

Arana, Inés; Orruño, Maite; Seco, Carolina; Muela, Alicia; Barcina, Isabel

2008-03-01

The ability of Urografin or Percoll density gradient centrifugations to separate nonculturable subpopulations from heterogeneous Escherichia coli populations was analysed. Bacterial counts (total, active and culturable cells) and flow cytometric analyses were carried out in all recovered bands. After Urografin centrifugation, and despite the different origin of E. coli populations, a common pattern was obtained. High-density bands were formed mainly by nonculturable cells. However, the increase in cell density would not be common to all nonculturable cells, since part of this subpopulations banded in low-density zones, mixed with culturable cells. Bands obtained after Percoll centrifugation were heterogeneous and culturable and nonculturable cells were recovered along the gradient. Thus, fractionation in Urografin cannot be only attributed to changes in buoyant densities during the transition from culturable to nonculturable state. Urografin density gradients allow us to obtain enriched fractions in nonculturable subpopulations from a heterogeneous population, but working conditions should be carefully chosen to avoid Urografin toxicity.

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

PubMed Central

Walsh, Rachael K.; Aguilar, Cristobal L.; Facchinelli, Luca; Valerio, Laura; Ramsey, Janine M.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Gould, Fred

2013-01-01

Transgenic strains of Aedes aegypti have been engineered to help control transmission of dengue virus. Although resources have been invested in developing the strains, we lack data on the ecology of mosquitoes that could impact the success of this approach. Although studies of intra-specific competition have been conducted using Ae. aegypti larvae, none of these studies examine mixed age cohorts at densities that occur in the field, with natural nutrient levels. Experiments were conducted in Mexico to determine the impact of direct and delayed density dependence on Ae. aegypti populations. Natural water, food, and larval densities were used to estimate the impacts of density dependence on larval survival, development, and adult body size. Direct and delayed density-dependent factors had a significant impact on larval survival, larval development, and adult body size. These results indicate that control methods attempting to reduce mosquito populations may be counteracted by density-dependent population regulation. PMID:23669230

Positive and Negative Feedbacks and Free-Scale Pattern Distribution in Rural-Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Alados, Concepción L.; Errea, Paz; Gartzia, Maite; Saiz, Hugo; Escós, Juan

2014-01-01

Depopulation of rural areas is a widespread phenomenon that has occurred in most industrialized countries, and has contributed significantly to a reduction in the productivity of agro-ecological resources. In this study, we identified the main trends in the dynamics of rural populations in the Central Pyrenees in the 20th C and early 21st C, and used density independent and density dependent models and identified the main factors that have influenced the dynamics. In addition, we investigated the change in the power law distribution of population size in those periods. Populations exhibited density-dependent positive feedback between 1960 and 2010, and a long-term positive correlation between agricultural activity and population size, which has resulted in a free-scale population distribution that has been disrupted by the collapse of the traditional agricultural society and by emigration to the industrialized cities. We concluded that complex socio-ecological systems that have strong feedback mechanisms can contribute to disruptive population collapses, which can be identified by changes in the pattern of population distribution. PMID:25474704

Radiation reabsorption in a laser-produced plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, W.; John, R. W.; Paul, H.; Steudel, H.

1988-11-01

Taking into account the emission and absorption of resonance radiation in a recombining laser-produced plasma of intermediate density, the system of rate equations for the population densities coupled with the radiative transfer equation is approximately treated. In the case of spatially varying absorption, an approximate form of the rate equation determining the population density of the upper resonance level is derived. By applying this relation to an axially symmetric plasma, a simple formula that describes the effect of radiation reabsorption on the spatial behavior of the population density is obtained.

Consequences for conservation: population density and genetic effects on reproduction of an endangered lagomorph.

PubMed

Demay, Stephanie M; Becker, Penny A; Waits, Lisette P; Johnson, Timothy R; Rachlow, Janet L

2016-04-01

Understanding reproduction and mating systems is important for managers tasked with conserving vulnerable species. Genetic tools allow biologists to investigate reproduction and mating systems with high resolution and are particularly useful for species that are otherwise difficult to study in their natural environments. We conducted parentage analyses using 19 nuclear DNA microsatellite loci to assess the influence of population density, genetic diversity, and ancestry on reproduction, and to examine the mating system of pygmy rabbits (Brachylagus idahoensis) bred in large naturalized enclosures for the reintroduction and recovery of the endangered distinct population in central Washington, USA. Reproductive output for females and males decreased as population density and individual homozygosity increased. We identified an interaction indicating that male reproductive output decreased as genetic diversity declined at high population densities, but there was no effect at low densities. Males with high amounts (> 50%) of Washington ancestry had higher reproductive output than the other ancestry groups, while reproductive output was decreased for males with high northern Utah/Wyoming ancestry and females with high Oregon/Nevada ancestry. Females and males bred with an average of 3.8 and 3.6 mates per year, respectively, and we found no evidence of positive or negative assortative mating with regards to ancestry. Multiple paternity was confirmed in 81% of litters, and we report the first documented cases of juvenile breeding by pygmy rabbits. This study demonstrates how variation in population density, genetic diversity, and ancestry impact fitness for an endangered species being bred for conservation. Our results advance understanding of basic life history characteristics for a cryptic species that is difficult to study in the wild and provide lessons for managing populations of vulnerable species in captive and free-ranging populations.

Differences in mammographic density between Asian and Caucasian populations: a comparative analysis.

PubMed

Rajaram, Nadia; Mariapun, Shivaani; Eriksson, Mikael; Tapia, Jose; Kwan, Pui Yoke; Ho, Weang Kee; Harun, Faizah; Rahmat, Kartini; Czene, Kamila; Taib, Nur Aishah Mohd; Hall, Per; Teo, Soo Hwang

2017-01-01

Mammographic density is a measurable and modifiable biomarker that is strongly and independently associated with breast cancer risk. Paradoxically, although Asian women have lower risk of breast cancer, studies of minority Asian women in predominantly Caucasian populations have found that Asian women have higher percent density. In this cross-sectional study, we compared the distribution of mammographic density for a matched cohort of Asian women from Malaysia and Caucasian women from Sweden, and determined if variations in mammographic density could be attributed to population differences in breast cancer risk factors. Volumetric mammographic density was compared for 1501 Malaysian and 4501 Swedish healthy women, matched on age and body mass index. We used multivariable log-linear regression to determine the risk factors associated with mammographic density and mediation analysis to identify factors that account for differences in mammographic density between the two cohorts. Compared to Caucasian women, percent density was 2.0% higher among Asian women (p < 0.001), and dense volume was 5.7 cm 3 higher among pre-menopausal Asian women (p < 0.001). Dense volume was 3.0 cm 3 lower among post-menopausal Asian women (p = 0.009) compared to post-menopausal Caucasian women, and this difference was attributed to population differences in height, weight, and parity (p < 0.001). Our analysis suggests that among post-menopausal women, population differences in mammographic density and risk to breast cancer may be accounted for by height, weight, and parity. Given that pre-menopausal Asian and Caucasian women have similar population risk to breast cancer but different dense volume, development of more appropriate biomarkers of risk in pre-menopausal women is required.

[Natural forming causes of China population distribution].

PubMed

Fang, Yu; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zheng, Hua; Xiao, Yi; Niu, Jun-Feng; Chen, Sheng-Bin; Lu, Fei

2012-12-01

The diverse natural environment in China causes the spatial heterogeneity of China population distribution. It is essential to understand the interrelations between the population distribution pattern and natural environment to enhance the understanding of the man-land relationship and the realization of the sustainable management for the population, resources, and environment. This paper analyzed the China population distribution by adopting the index of population density (PD) in combining with spatial statistic method and Lorenz curve, and discussed the effects of the natural factors on the population distribution and the interrelations between the population distribution and 16 indices including average annual precipitation (AAP), average annual temperature (AAT), average annual sunshine duration (AASD), precipitation variation (PV), temperature variation (TV), sunshine duration variation (SDV), relative humidity (RH), aridity index (AI), warmth index ( WI), > or = 5 degrees C annual accumulated temperature (AACT), average elevation (AE), relative height difference (RHD), surface roughness (SR), water system density (WSD), net primary productivity (NPP), and shortest distance to seashore (SDTS). There existed an obvious aggregation phenomenon in the population distribution in China. The PD was high in east China, medium in central China, and low in west China, presenting an obvious positive spatial association. The PD was significantly positively correlated with WSD, AAT, AAP, NPP, AACT, PV, RH, and WI, and significantly negatively correlated with RHD, AE, SDV, SR, and SDTS. The climate factors (AAT, WI, PV, and NPP), topography factors (SR and RHD), and water system factor (WSD) together determined the basic pattern of the population distribution in China. It was suggested that the monitoring of the eco-environment in the east China of high population density should be strengthened to avoid the eco-environmental degradation due to the expanding population, and the conservation of the eco-environment in the central and west China with vulnerable eco-environment should also be strengthened to enhance the population carrying ability of these regions and to mitigate the eco-environmental pressure in the east China of high population density.

Methods for estimating population density in data-limited areas: evaluating regression and tree-based models in Peru.

PubMed

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies.

Hypsographic demography: The distribution of human population by altitude

PubMed Central

Cohen, Joel E.; Small, Christopher

1998-01-01

The global distribution of the human population by elevation is quantified here. As of 1994, an estimated 1.88 × 109 people, or 33.5% of the world’s population, lived within 100 vertical meters of sea level, but only 15.6% of all inhabited land lies below 100 m elevation. The median person lived at an elevation of 194 m above sea level. Numbers of people decreased faster than exponentially with increasing elevation. The integrated population density (IPD, the number of people divided by the land area) within 100 vertical meters of sea level was significantly larger than that of any other range of elevations and represented far more people. A significant percentage of the low-elevation population lived at moderate population densities rather than at the highest densities of central large cities. Assessments of coastal hazards that focus only on large cities may substantially underestimate the number of people who could be affected. PMID:9826643

Methods for Estimating Population Density in Data-Limited Areas: Evaluating Regression and Tree-Based Models in Peru

PubMed Central

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies. PMID:24992657

Chaotic attractors and physical measures for some density dependent Leslie population models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ugarcovici, Ilie; Weiss, Howard

2007-12-01

Following ecologists' discoveries, mathematicians have begun studying extensions of the ubiquitous age structured Leslie population model that allow some survival probabilities and/or fertility rates to depend on population densities. These nonlinear extensions commonly exhibit very complicated dynamics: through computer studies, some authors have discovered robust Hénon-like strange attractors in several families. Population biologists and demographers frequently wish to average a function over many generations and conclude that the average is independent of the initial population distribution. This type of 'ergodicity' seems to be a fundamental tenet in population biology. In this paper we develop the first rigorous ergodic theoretic framework for density dependent Leslie population models. We study two generation models with Ricker and Hassell (recruitment type) fertility terms. We prove that for some parameter regions these models admit a chaotic (ergodic) attractor which supports a unique physical probability measure. This physical measure, having full Lebesgue measure basin, satisfies in the strongest possible sense the population biologist's requirement for ergodicity in their population models. We use the celebrated work of Wang and Young 2001 Commun. Math. Phys. 218 1-97, and our results are the first applications of their method to biology, ecology or demography.

Population estimates of the Endangered Hawaiʻi ʻĀkepa (Loxops coccineus) in different habitats on windward Mauna Loa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Judge, Seth W.; Camp, Richard J.; Hart, Patrick J.; Kichman, Scott T.

2018-01-01

Endangered Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas (Loxops coccineus) are endemic to Hawai‘i island, where they occur in five spatially distinct populations. Data concerning the status and population trends of these unique Hawaiian honeycreepers are crucial for assessing the effectiveness of recovery and management actions. In 2016, we used point‐transect distance sampling to estimate the abundance of Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas in portions of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) and the Kaʻū Forest Reserve (KFR) on Mauna Loa volcano. We then compiled the survey data from four other populations to provide a global population estimate. In our HAVO and KFR study area, we mapped habitat classes to determine the population densities in each habitat. Densities were highest (1.03 birds/ha) in open‐canopy montane ʻōhiʻa (Metrosideros polymorpha) woodland. In contrast, densities of the largest ʻĀkepa population on Mauna Kea volcano were highest in closed‐canopy ʻōhiʻa and koa (Acacia koa) forest where the species is dependent on nest cavities in tall (> 15 m), large (> 50‐cm diameter at breast height) trees. We surveyed potential nesting habitat in HAVO and KFR and found only one cavity in the short‐stature montane ʻōhiʻa woodland and five cavities in the tall‐stature forest. Differences in densities between the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa populations suggest that Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas may exhibit different foraging and nesting behaviors in the two habitats. The estimated overall population density in the HAVO and KFR study area was 0.52 birds/ha, which equates to 3663 (95% CI 1725–6961) birds in their 11,377‐ha population range. We calculated a global population of 16,428 (95% CI 10,065–25,198) birds, which is similar to an estimate of 13,892 (95% CI 10,315–17,469) birds made in 1986. Our results suggest that populations are stable to increasing in the two largest populations, but the three other populations are smaller (range = 77–1443 birds) and trends for those populations are unknown.

Egg fertilisation in a freshwater mussel: effects of distance, flow and male density

Treesearch

Tyler L. Mosley; Wendell R. Haag; James A. Stoeckel

2014-01-01

1. Small or sparse populations can experience Allee effects if egg fertilisation is reduced because of a shortage of sperm. 2. Freshwater mussels are spermcasters that often occur as sparse, patchy populations. Previous studies suggested that sperm shortage limits these populations unless facultative hermaphroditism and selffertilisation occur at low density...

A common framework for conservation planning: Linking individual and metapopulation models [Chapter 7

Treesearch

Barry R. Noon; Kevin S. McKelvey

1996-01-01

Many populations exhibit pronounced spatial structure: dispersed areas of high population density embedded in areas of low density, with population centers connected through dispersal. This recognition has led many conservation biologists to embrace the metapopulation concept (Levins 1970) as the appropriate paradigm for reserve design structures (reviewed in Hanski...

Forest type affects predation on gypsy moth pupae

Treesearch

A.M. Liebhold; K.F. Raffa; A.L. Diss; A.L. Diss

2005-01-01

Predation by small mammals has previously been shown to be the largest source of mortality in low-density gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), populations in established populations in north-eastern North America. Fluctuations in predation levels are critical in determining changes in population densities. We compared small mammal communities and levels of predation on...

Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

PubMed

Miller, Tom E X

2007-07-01

1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

Evidence-based control of canine rabies: a critical review of population density reduction.

PubMed

Morters, Michelle K; Restif, Olivier; Hampson, Katie; Cleaveland, Sarah; Wood, James L N; Conlan, Andrew J K

2013-01-01

Control measures for canine rabies include vaccination and reducing population density through culling or sterilization. Despite the evidence that culling fails to control canine rabies, efforts to reduce canine population density continue in many parts of the world. The rationale for reducing population density is that rabies transmission is density-dependent, with disease incidence increasing directly with host density. This may be based, in part, on an incomplete interpretation of historical field data for wildlife, with important implications for disease control in dog populations. Here, we examine historical and more recent field data, in the context of host ecology and epidemic theory, to understand better the role of density in rabies transmission and the reasons why culling fails to control rabies. We conclude that the relationship between host density, disease incidence and other factors is complex and may differ between species. This highlights the difficulties of interpreting field data and the constraints of extrapolations between species, particularly in terms of control policies. We also propose that the complex interactions between dogs and people may render culling of free-roaming dogs ineffective irrespective of the relationship between host density and disease incidence. We conclude that vaccination is the most effective means to control rabies in all species. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Population dynamics of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania: A quarter-century perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grossman, Gary D.; Carline, Robert F.; Wagner, Tyler

2017-01-01

We examined the relationship between density-independent and density-dependent factors on the demography of a dense, relatively unexploited population of brown trout in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania between 1985 and 2011.Individual PCAs of flow and temperature data elucidated groups of years with multiple high flow versus multiple low flow characteristics and high versus low temperature years, although subtler patterns of variation also were observed.Density and biomass displayed similar temporal patterns, ranging from 710 to 1,803 trout/ha and 76–263 kg/ha. We detected a significantly negative linear stock-recruitment relationship (R2 = .39) and there was no evidence that flow or water temperature affected recruitment.Both annual survival and the per-capita rate of increase (r) for the population varied over the study, and density-dependent mechanisms possessed the greatest explanatory power for annual survival data. Temporal trends in population r suggested it displayed a bounded equilibrium with increases observed in 12 years and decreases detected in 13 years.Model selection analysis of per-capita rate of increase data for age 1, and adults (N = eight interpretable models) indicated that both density-dependent (five of eight) and negative density-independent processes (five of eight, i.e. high flows or temperatures), affected r. Recruitment limitation also was identified in three of eight models. Variation in the per-capita rate of increase for the population was most strongly affected by positive density independence in the form of increasing spring–summer temperatures and recruitment limitation.Model selection analyses describing annual variation in both mean length and mass data yielded similar results, although maximum wi values were low ranging from 0.09 to 0.23 (length) and 0.13 to 0.22 (mass). Density-dependence was included in 15 of 15 interpretable models for length and all ten interpretable models for mass. Similarly, positive density-independent effects in the form of increasing autumn–winter flow were present in seven of 15 interpretable models for length and five of ten interpretable models for mass. Negative density independent effects also were observed in the form of high spring–summer flows or temperatures (N = 4), or high autumn–winter temperatures (N = 1).Our analyses of the factors affecting population regulation in an introduced population of brown trout demonstrate that density-dependent forces affected every important demographic characteristic (recruitment, survivorship, the rate of increase, and size) within this population. However, density-independent forces in the form of seasonal variations in flow and temperature also helped explain annual variation in the per-capita rate of increase, and mean length and mass data. Consequently, population regulation within this population is driven by a complex of biotic and environmental factors, although it seems clear that density-dependent factors play a dominant role.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

The Relationship between 25 (OH) D Levels (Vitamin D) and Bone Mineral Density (BMD) in a Saudi Population in a Community-Based Setting.

PubMed

Alkhenizan, Abdullah; Mahmoud, Ahmed; Hussain, Aneela; Gabr, Alia; Alsoghayer, Suad; Eldali, Abdelmoneim

2017-01-01

Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to an increased risk of osteoporosis. Vitamin D deficiency has reached high levels in the Saudi population, but there is conflicting evidence both in the Saudi population, and worldwide, regarding the existence of a correlation between these low vitamin D levels and reduced BMD (bone mineral density), or osteoporosis. The objective of this study was primarily to determine whether there was a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and osteoporosis in the Saudi population. We aimed to investigate whether the high levels of vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency would translate to higher prevalence of osteoporosis, and whether there is a correlation between vitamin D levels and bone mineral density. This was a community based cross sectional study conducted in the Family Medicine Clinics at King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Electronic records of 1723 patients were reviewed. Laboratory and radiology results were collected, including vitamin D levels, calcium levels, and bone mineral density scan results. Among the whole population, 61.5% had moderate to severe vitamin D deficiency with levels less than 50nmol/L. 9.1% of the population had osteoporosis, and 38.6% had osteopenia. Among the whole population, there was no significant correlation between spine or total femoral BMD and serum 25(OH) D. Vitamin D deficiency is prevalent in the Saudi population. However, no correlation has been found between vitamin D deficiency and reduced bone mineral density in any age group, in males or females, Saudis or Non-Saudis, in our population in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Density dependence, whitebark pine, and vital rates of grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Manen, Frank T.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.; White, Gary C.

2016-01-01

Understanding factors influencing changes in population trajectory is important for effective wildlife management, particularly for populations of conservation concern. Annual population growth of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA has slowed from 4.2–7.6% during 1983–2001 to 0.3–2.2% during 2002–2011. Substantial changes in availability of a key food source and bear population density have occurred. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), the seeds of which are a valuable but variable fall food for grizzly bears, has experienced substantial mortality primarily due to a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak that started in the early 2000s. Positive growth rates of grizzly bears have resulted in populations reaching high densities in some areas and have contributed to continued range expansion. We tested research hypotheses to examine if changes in vital rates detected during the past decade were more associated with whitebark pine decline or, alternatively, increasing grizzly bear density. We focused our assessment on known-fate data to estimate survival of cubs-of-the-year (cubs), yearlings, and independent bears (≥2 yrs), and reproductive transition of females from having no offspring to having cubs. We used spatially and temporally explicit indices for grizzly bear density and whitebark pine mortality as individual covariates. Models indicated moderate support for an increase in survival of independent male bears over 1983–2012, whereas independent female survival did not change. Cub survival, yearling survival, and reproductive transition from no offspring to cubs all changed during the 30-year study period, with lower rates evident during the last 10–15 years. Cub survival and reproductive transition were negatively associated with an index of grizzly bear density, indicating greater declines where bear densities were higher. Our analyses did not support a similar relationship for the index of whitebark pine mortality. The results of our study support the interpretation that slowing of population growth during the last decade was associated more with increasing grizzly bear density than the decline in whitebark pine. Grizzly bear density and its potential effect on vital rates and population trajectory warrant consideration for management of the grizzly bear population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Analysing the natural population growth of a large marine mammal after a depletive harvest.

PubMed

Romero, M A; Grandi, M F; Koen-Alonso, M; Svendsen, G; Ocampo Reinaldo, M; García, N A; Dans, S L; González, R; Crespo, E A

2017-07-13

An understanding of the underlying processes and comprehensive history of population growth after a harvest-driven depletion is necessary when assessing the long-term effectiveness of management and conservation strategies. The South American sea lion (SASL), Otaria flavescens, is the most conspicuous marine mammal along the South American coasts, where it has been heavily exploited. As a consequence of this exploitation, many of its populations were decimated during the early 20th century but currently show a clear recovery. The aim of this study was to assess SASL population recovery by applying a Bayesian state-space modelling framework. We were particularly interested in understanding how the population responds at low densities, how human-induced mortality interplays with natural mechanisms, and how density-dependence may regulate population growth. The observed population trajectory of SASL shows a non-linear relationship with density, recovering with a maximum increase rate of 0.055. However, 50 years after hunting cessation, the population still represents only 40% of its pre-exploitation abundance. Considering that the SASL population in this region represents approximately 72% of the species abundance within the Atlantic Ocean, the present analysis provides insights into the potential mechanisms regulating the dynamics of SASL populations across the global distributional range of the species.

Impacts of Insect Herbivores on Plant Populations.

PubMed

Myers, Judith H; Sarfraz, Rana M

2017-01-31

Apparent feeding damage by insects on plants is often slight. Thus, the influences of insect herbivores on plant populations are likely minor. The role of insects on host-plant populations can be elucidated via several methods: stage-structured life tables of plant populations manipulated by herbivore exclusion and seed-addition experiments, tests of the enemy release hypothesis, studies of the effects of accidentally and intentionally introduced insect herbivores, and observations of the impacts of insect species that show outbreak population dynamics. These approaches demonstrate that some, but not all, insect herbivores influence plant population densities. At times, insect-feeding damage kills plants, but more often, it reduces plant size, growth, and seed production. Plant populations for which seed germination is site limited will not respond at the population level to reduced seed production. Insect herbivores can influence rare plant species and need to be considered in conservation programs. Alterations due to climate change in the distributions of insect herbivores indicate the possibility of new influences on host plants. Long-term studies are required to show if density-related insect behavior stabilizes plant populations or if environmental variation drives most temporal fluctuations in plant densities. Finally, insects can influence plant populations and communities through changing the diversity of nonhost species, modifying nutrient fluxes, and rejuvenating over mature forests.

Predator-induced synchrony in population oscillations of coexisting small mammal species

PubMed Central

Korpimäki, Erkki; Norrdahl, Kai; Huitu, Otso; Klemola, Tero

2005-01-01

Comprehensive analyses of long-term (1977–2003) small-mammal abundance data from western Finland showed that populations of Microtus voles (field voles M. agrestis and sibling voles M. rossiaemeridionalis) voles, bank (Clethrionomys glareolus) and common shrews (Sorex araneus) fluctuated synchronously in 3 year population cycles. Time-series analyses indicated that interspecific synchrony is influenced strongly by density-dependent processes. Synchrony among Microtus and bank voles appeared additionally to be influenced by density-independent processes. To test whether interspecific synchronization through density-dependent processes is caused by predation, we experimentally reduced the densities of the main predators of small mammals in four large agricultural areas, and compared small mammal abundances in these to those in four control areas (2.5–3 km2) through a 3 year small-mammal population cycle. Predator reduction increased densities of the main prey species, Microtus voles, in all phases of the population cycle, while bank voles, the most important alternative prey of predators, responded positively only in the low and the increase phase. Manipulation also increased the autumn densities of water voles (Arvicola terrestris) in the increase phase of the cycle. No treatment effects were detected for common shrews or mice. Our results are in accordance with the alternative prey hypothesis, by which predators successively reduce the densities of both main and alternative prey species after the peak phase of small-mammal population cycles, thus inducing a synchronous low phase. PMID:15695211

Reducing Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) population density as a measure for bovine tuberculosis control: effects in wild boar and a sympatric fallow deer (Dama dama) population in Central Spain.

PubMed

García-Jiménez, W L; Fernández-Llario, P; Benítez-Medina, J M; Cerrato, R; Cuesta, J; García-Sánchez, A; Gonçalves, P; Martínez, R; Risco, D; Salguero, F J; Serrano, E; Gómez, L; Hermoso-de-Mendoza, J

2013-07-01

Research on management of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in wildlife reservoir hosts is crucial for the implementation of effective disease control measures and the generation of practical bTB management recommendations. Among the management methods carried out on wild species to reduce bTB prevalence, the control of population density has been frequently used, with hunting pressure a practical strategy to reduce bTB prevalence. However, despite the number of articles about population density control in different bTB wildlife reservoirs, there is little information regarding the application of such measures on the Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa), which is considered the main bTB wildlife reservoir within Mediterranean ecosystems. This study shows the effects of a management measure leading to a radical decrease in wild boar population density at a large hunting estate in Central Spain, in order to assess the evolution of bTB prevalence in both the wild boar population and the sympatric fallow deer population. The evolution of bTB prevalence was monitored in populations of the two wild ungulate species over a 5-year study period (2007-2012). The results showed that bTB prevalence decreased in fallow deer, corresponding to an important reduction in the wild boar population. However, this decrease was not homogeneous: in the last season of study there was an increase in bTB-infected male animals. Moreover, bTB prevalence remained high in the remnant wild boar population. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Increase in density of genetically diverse invasive Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) populations in the Gulf of Maine.

PubMed

Lord, Joshua P; Williams, Larissa M

2017-04-01

Hemigrapsus sanguineus , the Asian shore crab, has rapidly replaced Carcinus maenas , the green crab, as the most abundant crab on rocky shores in the northwest Atlantic since its introduction to the United States (USA) in 1988. The northern edge of this progressing invasion is the Gulf of Maine, where Asian shore crabs are only abundant in the south. We compared H. sanguineus population densities to those from published 2005 surveys and quantified genetic variation using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. We found that the range of H. sanguineus had extended northward since 2005, that population density had increased substantially (at least 10-fold at all sites), and that Asian shore crabs had become the dominant intertidal crab species in New Hampshire and southern Maine. Despite the significant increase in population density of H. sanguineus , populations only increased by a factor of 14 in Maine compared to 70 in southern New England, possibly due to cooler temperatures in the Gulf of Maine. Genetically, populations were predominantly composed of a single haplotype of Japanese, Korean, or Taiwanese origin, although an additional seven haplotypes were found. Six of these haplotypes were of Asian origin, while two are newly described. Large increases in population sizes of genetically diverse individuals in Maine will likely have a large ecological impact, causing a reduction in populations of mussels, barnacles, snails, and other crabs, similar to what has occurred at southern sites with large populations of this invasive crab species.

Vertical distribution of three namatode species in relation to certain soil properties.

PubMed

Brodie, B B

1976-07-01

Population densities of Belonolaimus longicaudatus, Pratylenchus brachyurus, and Trichodorus christiei were determined from soil samples taken weekly in Tifton, Georgia during a 14-month period (except for April and May) at 15-cm increments to a depth of 105 cm. Belonolaimus longicaudatus predominately inhabited the top 30 cm of soil that was 87-88% sand, 6-7% silt, and 5-7% clay. No specimens were found below 60 cm where the soil was 76-79% sand, 5-6% silt, and 15-19% clay. Highest population densities occurred during June through September when temperature in the top 30 cm of soil was 22-25 C and soil moisture was from 9 to 20% by volume. Pratylenchus brachyurus was found at all depths, but population densities were greatest 45-75 cm deep where the soil was 78-79% sand, 6% silt, and 15-16% clay. In the months monitored, highest population densities occurred during March, June, and December when the soil temperature 45-75 cm deep was 14-17 C and soil moisture was 22-42%. Trichodorus christiei was found at all depths, but population densities were highest 30 cm deep where the soil was 83% sand, 5% silt, and 12% clay. Highest population densities occurred during December through March when the soil temperature 30 cm deep was 11-17 C and soil moisture was 18-23%.

Population density and racial differences in the performance of emergency medical services.

PubMed

David, Guy; Harrington, Scott E

2010-07-01

This paper analyzes the existence and scope of possible racial differences/disparities in the provision of emergency medical services (EMS) response capability (time from dispatch to arrival at the scene and level of training of the responding team) using data on approximately 120,000 cardiac incidents in the state of Mississippi during 1995-2004. The conceptual framework and empirical analysis focus on the likely effects of population density on the efficient production of EMS as a local public good subject to congestion, and on the need to control adequately for population density to avoid bias in testing for racial differences. Models that control for aggregate population density at the county-level indicate "reverse" disparities: faster estimated response times for African-Americans than for whites. When a refined county-level measure of population density is used that incorporates differences in African-American and white population density by Census tract, the reverse disparity in response times disappears. There also is little or no evidence of race-related differences in the certification level of EMS responders. However, there is evidence that, controlling for response time, African-Americans on average were significantly more likely to be deceased than whites upon EMS arrival at the scene. The overall results are germane to the debate over the scope of conditioning variables that should be included when testing for racial disparities in health care.

The scaling of contact rates with population density for the infectious disease models.

PubMed

Hu, Hao; Nigmatulina, Karima; Eckhoff, Philip

2013-08-01

Contact rates and patterns among individuals in a geographic area drive transmission of directly-transmitted pathogens, making it essential to understand and estimate contacts for simulation of disease dynamics. Under the uniform mixing assumption, one of two mechanisms is typically used to describe the relation between contact rate and population density: density-dependent or frequency-dependent. Based on existing evidence of population threshold and human mobility patterns, we formulated a spatial contact model to describe the appropriate form of transmission with initial growth at low density and saturation at higher density. We show that the two mechanisms are extreme cases that do not capture real population movement across all scales. Empirical data of human and wildlife diseases indicate that a nonlinear function may work better when looking at the full spectrum of densities. This estimation can be applied to large areas with population mixing in general activities. For crowds with unusually large densities (e.g., transportation terminals, stadiums, or mass gatherings), the lack of organized social contact structure deviates the physical contacts towards a special case of the spatial contact model - the dynamics of kinetic gas molecule collision. In this case, an ideal gas model with van der Waals correction fits well; existing movement observation data and the contact rate between individuals is estimated using kinetic theory. A complete picture of contact rate scaling with population density may help clarify the definition of transmission rates in heterogeneous, large-scale spatial systems. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial capture-recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Graves, Tabitha A.

2013-01-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on “ecological distance,” i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture–recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture–recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Spatial capture--recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Royle, J Andrew; Chandler, Richard B; Gazenski, Kimberly D; Graves, Tabitha A

2013-02-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture--recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on "ecological distance," i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture-recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture-recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

The crowded life is a slow life: Population density and life history strategy.

PubMed

Sng, Oliver; Neuberg, Steven L; Varnum, Michael E W; Kenrick, Douglas T

2017-05-01

The world population has doubled over the last half century. Yet, research on the psychological effects of human population density, once a popular topic, has decreased over the past few decades. Applying a fresh perspective to an old topic, we draw upon life history theory to examine the effects of population density. Across nations and across the U.S. states (Studies 1 and 2), we find that dense populations exhibit behaviors corresponding to a slower life history strategy, including greater future-orientation, greater investment in education, more long-term mating orientation, later marriage age, lower fertility, and greater parental investment. In Studies 3 and 4, experimentally manipulating perceptions of high density led individuals to become more future-oriented. Finally, in Studies 5 and 6, experimentally manipulating perceptions of high density seemed to lead to life-stage-specific slower strategies, with college students preferring to invest in fewer rather than more relationship partners, and an older MTurk sample preferring to invest in fewer rather than more children. This research sheds new insight on the effects of density and its implications for human cultural variation and society at large. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Reproduction and population dynamics of Mastomys natalensis Smith, 1834 in an agricultural landscape in the Western Usambara Mountains, Tanzania.

PubMed

Makundi, Rhodes H; Massawe, Apia W; Mulungu, Loth S

2007-12-01

The multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis Smith 1834, is a dominant species in agro-ecosystems in Sub-Saharan Africa, but adapts quickly to changes in non-agricultural landscape, particularly woodlands and forests. In this study we report on reproduction and population dynamics of M. natalensis in deforested high elevation localities in the Usambara Mountains, north-east Tanzania. We conducted Capture-Mark-Recapture studies in 2002-2004, and established that reproduction of M. natalensis takes place in the extended wet season between February and June, and the population density peaks in June-August. Reproduction cease in July to January and population density drops from July onwards. Reproduction and population density fluctuations are linked to the duration and amount of rainfall. In years when rainfall was below average and the wet season was short, the population density was significantly lower (below 10 animals/ha and 60 animals/ha in 2003 and 2004 respectively, compared to >100 animals/ha in 2002 when rainfall was above the seasonal average) (F(df 2,13)= 9.092, p < 0.01 for in between years variations and F(df 12,15)= 5.389, p < 0.01 for effect of cumulative annual rainfall on population density). These densities were much lower than in the lowland savannah habitats in central and southwest Tanzania. A comparison between the farmland/fallow mosaic fields and agro-forestry areas showed higher population densities in the former, which have similarities to the preferred habitats in the lowland savannahs. The increasing abundance of M. natalensis in the Usambara could have some consequences: M. natalensis is major pest and is involved in the plague cycle in the western Usambara Mountains. Mastomys natalensis is also a strong competitor and the impact on endemic rodent species, e.g. Lophuromys flavopunctatus and Praomys delectorum is unknown.

Long-term persistence, density dependence and effects of climate change on rosyside dace (Cyprinidae)

Treesearch

Gary D. Grossman; Gary Sundin; Robert E. Ratajczak

2016-01-01

SummaryWe used long-term population data for rosyside dace (Clinostomus funduloides), a numerically dominant member of a stochastically organised fish assemblage, to evaluate the relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent processes to population...

Case history of population change in a `bacillus thuringiensis`-treated versus an untreated outbreak of the western spruce budworm. Forest Service research note

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mason, R.R.; Paul, H.G.

1996-09-01

Larval densities of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) were monitored for 12 years (1984-95) on permanent sample plots in northeastern Oregon. The time series spanned a period of general budworm infestations when populations increased rapidly from low densities, plateaued for a time at high-outbreak densities, and then declind suddenly. Midway through the period (1988), an area with half of the sample plots was sprayed with the microbial insecticide Bacillus thuringiensis (B.t.) in an operational suppression project. The other sample plots were part of an untreated area. In the treated area, B.t. spray reduced numbers of larvae by moremore » than 90 percent; however, populations returned to an outbreak density within 3 years. In the untreated area, populations remained at outbreak densities and continued to fluctuate due to natural feedback processes. Natural decline of the population (1992-95) in the monitored area was largely unexplained and coincided with an overall collapse of the budworm outbreak in the Blue Mountains.« less

Kit fox population trends at the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kato, T.T.; Scrivner, J.H.; Warrick, G.

The San Joaquin kit fox was listed as an endangered subspecies following passage of the Endangered Species Protection Act of 1966, and further classified as rare under the California Endangered Species Act of 1970. The San Joaquin kit fox occurs on the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California administered by the Department of Energy (DOE). A long term kit fox population monitoring program was initiated as part of DOE's mitigation strategy to comply with the Endangered Species Act. In addition to monitoring kit fox populations, the program includes assessments of kit fox prey density and assessments of predator abundance. The objectivesmore » of this study were to: describe the long term changes in the kit fox population on the Reserves and assess the roles of coyotes and lagomorphs in kit fox population dynamics. When the fox population on NPR-1 declined between 1980 and 1984, it appeared to have been negatively impacted by a declining prey base (lagomorphs) and an increasing coyote population. Declining lagomorph densities may have been a more important factor because as coyote numbers declined between 1985 and 1990, the kit fox population remained stable. The fox population on NPR-2 remained at a higher and more stable level than the population on NPR-1. The factors determining the higher densities and greater stability of the fox population on NPR-2 are unknown.« less

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Lying in wait: Limiting factors on a low-density ungulate population and the latent traits that can facilitate escape from them

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joly, Kyle; Craig, Tim; Cameron, Matthew D.; Gall, Adrian E.; Sorum, Mathew S.

2017-11-01

Predation, habitat, hunting, and environmental conditions have all been implicated as regulatory mechanisms in ungulate populations. The low-density equilibrium hypothesis predicts that in low-density populations, predators regulate their prey and that the population will not escape unless predation pressure is eased. We evaluated survival of adult and juvenile moose (Alces alces) in north-central Alaska to determine whether or not the population supported the hypothesis. We instrumented adult male and female moose with radiocollars and used aerial observations to track parturition and subsequent survival of juvenile moose. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to assess survival. Adult annual survival rates were high (∼89%), but may be negatively influenced by winter conditions. Migratory status did not affect moose survivorship or productivity. Approximately 60% of the calf crop died before 5 months of age. Productivity was significantly lower in the northern section of the study area where there is less high-quality habitat, suggesting that, even in this low-density population, nutrition could be a limiting factor. It appears that predation on young calves, winter weather, and nutritional constraints may be interacting to limit this population. Latent traits, such as overproduction of calves and migratory behavior, which do not currently enhance fitness, may persist within this population so that individuals with these traits can reap benefits when environmental conditions change.

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Density and population viability of coastal marten: a rare and geographically isolated small carnivore

PubMed Central

Green, David S.; Levi, Taal

2018-01-01

Pacific martens (Martes caurina humboldtensis) in coastal forests of Oregon and northern California in the United States are rare and geographically isolated, prompting a petition for listing under the Endangered Species Act. If listed, regulations have the potential to influence land-use decisions on public and private lands, but no estimates of population size, density, or viability of remnant marten populations are available for evaluating their conservation status. We used GPS and VHF telemetry and spatial mark-resight to estimate home ranges, density, and population size of Pacific martens in the Oregon Dunes National Recreation Area, central coast Oregon, USA. We then estimated population viability at differing levels of human-caused mortality (e.g., vehicle mortality). Marten home ranges were small on average (females = 0.8 km2, males 1.5 km2) and density (1.13 martens/1 km2) was the highest reported for North American populations (M. caurina, M. americana). We estimated 71 adult martens (95% CRI [41–87]) across two subpopulations separated by a large barrier (Umpqua River). Using population viability analysis, extinction risk for a subpopulation of 30 martens, approximately the size of the subpopulation south of the Umpqua River, ranged from 32% to 99% with two or three annual human-caused mortalities within 30 years. Absent population expansion, limiting human-caused mortalities will likely have the greatest conservation impact. PMID:29637018

Sexual conflict and the evolution of asexuality at low population densities.

PubMed

Gerber, Nina; Kokko, Hanna

2016-10-26

Theories for the evolution of sex rarely include facultatively sexual reproduction. Sexual harassment by males is an underappreciated factor: it should at first sight increase the relative advantage of asexual reproduction by increasing the cost of sex. However, if the same females can perform either sexual or asexual life cycles, then females trying to reproduce asexually may not escape harassment. If resisting male harassment is costly, it might be beneficial for a female to accept a mating and undertake a sexual life cycle rather than 'insist' on an asexual one. We investigate the effects of sexual harassment on the maintenance of sex under different population densities. Our model shows that resisting matings pays off at low population densities, which leads to the complete extinction of males, and thus to the evolution of completely asexual populations. Facultative sex persists in a narrow range of slightly higher densities. At high densities, selection favours giving up resisting male mating attempts and thus sexual reproduction takes over. These interactions between the outcomes of sexual conflict and population density suggest an explanation for the rarity of facultative sex and also patterns of geographical parthenogenesis, where marginal environments with potentially low densities are associated with asexuality. © 2016 The Author(s).

Effects of irrigation on the seasonal abundance of Empoasca vitis in north-Italian vineyards.

PubMed

Fornasiero, D; Duso, C; Pozzebon, A; Tomasi, D; Gaiotti, F; Pavan, F

2012-02-01

The effect of irrigation on the abundance of Empoasca vitis (Göthe) populations was investigated in four vineyards located in northeastern Italy. In two experiments, we compared leafhopper population densities in plots irrigated (micro-spray irrigation system) or nonirrigated. In another experiment, we studied the effect of various irrigation systems on E. vitis populations over two successive seasons. In particular, five treatments were compared: control (not irrigated), traditional drip system, three types of subirrigation varying in distance from the row (40, 135, and 95 cm). In this vineyard, stem water potential was monitored with a pressure chamber. E. vitis population densities were affected by irrigation, with higher densities of this pest recorded on irrigated vines. Highest E. vitis densities were detected in drip irrigation plots compared with nonirrigated plots where water stress was highest. Moderate water stress (subirrigation plots) was associated with intermediate leafhopper densities. Implications for integrated pest management are discussed.

Identification of the population density of a species model with nonlocal diffusion and nonlinear reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuan, Nguyen Huy; Van Au, Vo; Khoa, Vo Anh; Lesnic, Daniel

2017-05-01

The identification of the population density of a logistic equation backwards in time associated with nonlocal diffusion and nonlinear reaction, motivated by biology and ecology fields, is investigated. The diffusion depends on an integral average of the population density whilst the reaction term is a global or local Lipschitz function of the population density. After discussing the ill-posedness of the problem, we apply the quasi-reversibility method to construct stable approximation problems. It is shown that the regularized solutions stemming from such method not only depend continuously on the final data, but also strongly converge to the exact solution in L 2-norm. New error estimates together with stability results are obtained. Furthermore, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.

Population density, socioeconomic environment and all-cause mortality: a multilevel survival analysis of 2.7 million individuals in Denmark.

PubMed

Meijer, Mathias; Kejs, Anne Mette; Stock, Christiane; Bloomfield, Kim; Ejstrud, Bo; Schlattmann, Peter

2012-03-01

This study examines the relative effects of population density and area-level SES on all-cause mortality in Denmark. A shared frailty model was fitted with 2.7 million persons aged 30-81 years in 2,121 parishes. Residence in areas with high population density increased all-cause mortality for all age groups. For older age groups, residence in areas with higher proportions of unemployed persons had an additional effect. Area-level factors explained considerably more variation in mortality among the elderly than among younger generations. Overall this study suggests that structural prevention efforts in neighborhoods could help reduce mortality when mediating processes between area-level socioeconomic status, population density and mortality are found. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors leading to different viability predictions for a grizzly bear data set

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, L.S.; Hayes, S.G.; Wisdom, M.J.; Citta, J.; Mattson, D.J.; Murphy, K.

1996-01-01

Population viability analysis programs are being used increasingly in research and management applications, but there has not been a systematic study of the congruence of different program predictions based on a single data set. We performed such an analysis using four population viability analysis computer programs: GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS/AGE, and VORTEX. The standardized demographic rates used in all programs were generalized from hypothetical increasing and decreasing grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) populations. Idiosyncracies of input format for each program led to minor differences in intrinsic growth rates that translated into striking differences in estimates of extinction rates and expected population size. In contrast, the addition of demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding costs caused only a small divergence in viability predictions. But, the addition of density dependence caused large deviations between the programs despite our best attempts to use the same density-dependent functions. Population viability programs differ in how density dependence is incorporated, and the necessary functions are difficult to parameterize accurately. Thus, we recommend that unless data clearly suggest a particular density-dependent model, predictions based on population viability analysis should include at least one scenario without density dependence. Further, we describe output metrics that may differ between programs; development of future software could benefit from standardized input and output formats across different programs.

Overcrowding and Population Growth: The Nature and Relevance of Animal Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stettner, Laurence J.

This paper provides a descriptive overview of research on the consequences of overcrowding and the development of high population densities in animals, and speculates on the relevance of these studies for similar human phenomena. Three major foci are distinguished: (1) the effect of high population densities on animal behavior; (2) the nature of…

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Predicting fluctuations-caused regime shifts in a time delayed dynamics of an invading species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Qingshuang; Wang, Tonghuan; Zeng, Chunhua; Dong, Xiaohui; Guan, Lin

2018-03-01

In this paper, we investigate early warning signals (EWS) of regime shifts in a density-dependent invading population model with time delay, in which the population density is assumed to be disturbed by intrinsic and extrinsic fluctuations. It is shown that the time delay and noises can cause the regime shifts between low and high population density states. The regime shift time (RST) as a function of noise intensity exhibits a maximum, which identifies the signature of the noise-enhanced stability of the low density state, while the time delay weakens the stability of the low density state. Applying the Kramers time technique, we also discuss the intersection point of the RST between low and high population density states, i.e., a critical point in the RST is found. Therefore, the critical point may give an EWS of regime shifts from one alternative state to another one for the changes in the noise parameters and time delay.

The evolutionary and behavioral modification of consumer responses to environmental change.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2014-02-21

How will evolution or other forms of adaptive change alter the response of a consumer species' population density to environmentally driven changes in population growth parameters? This question is addressed by analyzing some simple consumer-resource models to separate the ecological and evolutionary components of the population's response. Ecological responses are always decreased population size, but evolution of traits that have effects on both resource uptake rate and another fitness-related parameter may magnify, offset, or reverse this population decrease. Evolution can change ecologically driven decreases in population size to increases; this is likely when: (1) resources are initially below the density that maximizes resource growth, and (2) the evolutionary response decreases the consumer's resource uptake rate. Evolutionary magnification of the ecological decreases in population size can occur when the environmental change is higher trait-independent mortality. Such evolution-driven decreases are most likely when uptake-rate traits increase and the resource is initially below its maximum growth density. It is common for the difference between the new eco-evolutionary equilibrium and the new ecological equilibrium to be larger than that between the original and new ecological equilibrium densities. The relative magnitudes of ecological and evolutionary effects often depend sensitively on the magnitude of the environmental change and the nature of resource growth. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of population density on the concentration and speciation of metals in the soil and street dust from urban areas.

PubMed

Acosta, J A; Gabarrón, M; Faz, A; Martínez-Martínez, S; Zornoza, R; Arocena, J M

2015-09-01

Street dust and soil from high, medium and low populated cities and natural area were analysed for selected physical-chemical properties, total and chemical speciation of Zn, Pb, Cu, Cr, Cd, Co, Ni to understand the influence of human activities on metal accumulation and mobility in the environment. The pH, salinity, carbonates and organic carbon contents were similar between soil and dust from the same city. Population density increases dust/soil salinity but has no influence on metals concentrations in soils. Increases in metal concentrations with population density were observed in dusts. Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr can be mobilized more easily from dust compared to the soil. In addition, population density increase the percentage of Pb and Zn associated to reducible and carbonate phase in the dust. The behaviour of metals except Cd in soil is mainly affected by physico-chemical properties, while total metal influenced the speciation except Cr and Ni in dusts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Density dependence governs when population responses to multiple stressors are magnified or mitigated.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Halpern, Benjamin S

2017-10-01

Population endangerment typically arises from multiple, potentially interacting anthropogenic stressors. Extensive research has investigated the consequences of multiple stressors on organisms, frequently focusing on individual life stages. Less is known about population-level consequences of exposure to multiple stressors, especially when exposure varies through life. We provide the first theoretical basis for identifying species at risk of magnified effects from multiple stressors across life history. By applying a population modeling framework, we reveal conditions under which population responses from stressors applied to distinct life stages are either magnified (synergistic) or mitigated. We find that magnification or mitigation critically depends on the shape of density dependence, but not the life stage in which it occurs. Stressors are always magnified when density dependence is linear or concave, and magnified or mitigated when it is convex. Using Bayesian numerical methods, we estimated the shape of density dependence for eight species across diverse taxa, finding support for all three shapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Population density and cancer mortality by gender and age in England and Wales and the Western World 1963-93.

PubMed

Pritchard, C; Evans, B

1997-07-01

The aetiology of malignant disease is multi-factorial, including contributory environmental factors. Based upon the premise that increases in the density of population will be coterminous with a worsening of the environment, it is hypothesised that such changes should be reflected in an increase in cancer mortality in general and in elderly populations. By focusing upon changes in the elderly (+75) deaths between two time periods, the study corrects for age factors related to cancer mortality. The study tests this hypothesis via correlations between population density and malignancy death rates in general and elderly age bands over a thirty year period. It was found that there were positive and significant correlations between population density and malignancy mortality rates in the Western World, especially amongst men, but all correlations strengthened in the direction hypothesised. The findings were not an artefact of longevity, further research is required to give a better understanding of these findings.

Observations on Neotricula aperta (Gastropoda: Pomatiopsidae) population densities in Thailand and central Laos: implications for the spread of Mekong schistosomiasis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The snail Neotricula aperta transmits Mekong schistosomiasis in southern Laos and Cambodia, with about 1.5 million people at risk of infection. Plans are under consideration for at least 12 hydroelectric power dams on the lower Mekong river and much controversy surrounds predictions of their environmental impacts. Unfortunately, there are almost no ecological data (such as long term population trend studies) available for N. aperta which could be used in impact assessment. Predictions currently assume that the impacts will be the same as those observed in Africa (i.e., a worsening of the schistosomiasis problem); however, marked ecological differences between the snails involved suggest that region specific models are required. The present study was performed as an initial step in providing data, which could be useful in the planning of water resource development in the Mekong. Snail population density records were analyzed for populations close to, and far downstream of, the Nam Theun 2 (NT2) project in Laos in order to detect any changes that might be attributable to impoundment. Results The population immediately downstream of NT2 and that sampled 400 km downstream in Thailand both showed a long term trend of slow growth from 1992 to 2005; however, both populations showed a marked decline in density between 2005 and 2011. The decline in Thailand was to a value significantly lower than that predicted by a linear mixed model for the data, whilst the population density close to NT2 fell to undetectable levels in 2011 from densities of over 5000 m-2 in 2005. The NT2 dam began operation in 2010. Conclusions The impact of the NT2 dam on N. aperta population density could be more complex than first thought and may reflect the strict ecological requirements of this snail. There was no indication that responses of N. aperta populations to dam construction are similar to those observed with Bulinus and Schistosoma haematobium in Africa, for example. In view of the present findings, more ecological data (in particular population density monitoring and surveillance for new habitats) are urgently required in order to understand properly the likely impacts of water resource development on Mekong schistosomiasis. PMID:22720904

Density-associated recruitment mediates coral population dynamics on a coral reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramanti, Lorenzo; Edmunds, Peter J.

2016-06-01

Theory suggests that density-associated processes can modulate community resilience following declines in population size. Here, we demonstrate density-associated processes in two scleractinian populations on the outer reef of Moorea, French Polynesia, that are rapidly increasing in size following the effects of two catastrophic disturbances. Between 2006 and 2010, predation by the corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea star reduced coral cover by 93 %; in 2010, the dead coral skeletons were removed by a cyclone, and in 2011 and 2012, high coral recruitment initiated population recovery. Coral recruitment was associated with coral cover, but the relationship differed between two coral genera that are almost exclusively broadcast spawners in Moorea. Acroporids recruited at low densities, and the density of recruits was positively associated with cover of Acropora, whereas pocilloporids recruited at high densities, and densities of their recruits were negatively associated with cover of Pocillopora. Together, our results suggest that associations between adult cover and density of both juveniles and recruits can mediate rapid coral community recovery after large disturbances. The difference between taxa in sign of the relationships between recruit density and coral cover indicate that they reflect contrasting mechanisms with the potential to mediate temporal shifts in taxonomic composition of coral communities.

The interaction between the spatial distribution of resource patches and population density: consequences for intraspecific growth and morphology.

PubMed

Jacobson, Bailey; Grant, James W A; Peres-Neto, Pedro R

2015-07-01

How individuals within a population distribute themselves across resource patches of varying quality has been an important focus of ecological theory. The ideal free distribution predicts equal fitness amongst individuals in a 1 : 1 ratio with resources, whereas resource defence theory predicts different degrees of monopolization (fitness variance) as a function of temporal and spatial resource clumping and population density. One overlooked landscape characteristic is the spatial distribution of resource patches, altering the equitability of resource accessibility and thereby the effective number of competitors. While much work has investigated the influence of morphology on competitive ability for different resource types, less is known regarding the phenotypic characteristics conferring relative ability for a single resource type, particularly when exploitative competition predominates. Here we used young-of-the-year rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) to test whether and how the spatial distribution of resource patches and population density interact to influence the level and variance of individual growth, as well as if functional morphology relates to competitive ability. Feeding trials were conducted within stream channels under three spatial distributions of nine resource patches (distributed, semi-clumped and clumped) at two density levels (9 and 27 individuals). Average trial growth was greater in high-density treatments with no effect of resource distribution. Within-trial growth variance had opposite patterns across resource distributions. Here, variance decreased at low-population, but increased at high-population densities as patches became increasingly clumped as the result of changes in the levels of interference vs. exploitative competition. Within-trial growth was related to both pre- and post-trial morphology where competitive individuals were those with traits associated with swimming capacity and efficiency: larger heads/bodies/caudal fins and less angled pectoral fins. The different degrees of within-population growth variance at the same density level found here, as a function of spatial resource distribution, provide an explanation for the inconsistencies in within-site growth variance and population regulation often noted with regard to density dependence in natural landscapes. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Density-dependent effects on physical condition and reproduction in North American elk: an experimental test.

Treesearch

Kelley M. Stewart; R. Terry Bowyer; Brian L. Dick; Bruce K. Johnson; John G. Kie

2005-01-01

Density dependence plays a key role in life-history characteristics and population ecology of large, herbivorous mammals. We designed a manipulative experiment to test hypotheses relating effects of density-dependent mechanisms on physical condition and fecundity of North American elk (Cervus elaphus) by creating populations at low and high density...

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; McCallum, H.; Lafferty, K.D.; Sabo, J.L.; Dobson, A.

2005-01-01

In the United States and several other countries, the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to model disease explicitly. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

We present a study, based on simulations with SERDYCA, a spatially-explicit individual-based model of rodent dynamics, on the relation between population persistence and the presence of numerous isolated disturbances in the habitat. We are specifically interested in the effect of disturbances that do not fragment the environment on population persistence. Our results suggest that the presence of disturbances in the absence of fragmentation can actually increase the average time to extinction of the modeled population. The presence of disturbances decreases population density but can increase the chance for mating in monogamous species and consequently, the ratio of juveniles in themore » population. It thus provides a better chance for the population to restore itself after a severe period with critically low population density. We call this the ''disturbance-forced localization effect''.« less

Towards the Development of a More Accurate Monitoring Procedure for Invertebrate Populations, in the Presence of an Unknown Spatial Pattern of Population Distribution in the Field

PubMed Central

Petrovskaya, Natalia B.; Forbes, Emily; Petrovskii, Sergei V.; Walters, Keith F. A.

2018-01-01

Studies addressing many ecological problems require accurate evaluation of the total population size. In this paper, we revisit a sampling procedure used for the evaluation of the abundance of an invertebrate population from assessment data collected on a spatial grid of sampling locations. We first discuss how insufficient information about the spatial population density obtained on a coarse sampling grid may affect the accuracy of an evaluation of total population size. Such information deficit in field data can arise because of inadequate spatial resolution of the population distribution (spatially variable population density) when coarse grids are used, which is especially true when a strongly heterogeneous spatial population density is sampled. We then argue that the average trap count (the quantity routinely used to quantify abundance), if obtained from a sampling grid that is too coarse, is a random variable because of the uncertainty in sampling spatial data. Finally, we show that a probabilistic approach similar to bootstrapping techniques can be an efficient tool to quantify the uncertainty in the evaluation procedure in the presence of a spatial pattern reflecting a patchy distribution of invertebrates within the sampling grid. PMID:29495513

Air quality and urban form in U.S. urban areas: evidence from regulatory monitors.

PubMed

Clark, Lara P; Millet, Dylan B; Marshall, Julian D

2011-08-15

The layout of an urban area can impact air pollution via changes in emissions and their spatial distribution. Here, we explore relationships between air quality and urban form based on cross-sectional observations for 111 U.S. urban areas. We employ stepwise linear regression to quantify how long-term population-weighted outdoor concentrations of ozone, fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)), and other criteria pollutants measured by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency depend on urban form, climate, transportation, city size, income, and region. Aspects of urban form evaluated here include city shape, road density, jobs-housing imbalance, population density, and population centrality. We find that population density is associated with higher population-weighted PM(2.5) concentrations (p < 0.01); population centrality is associated with lower population-weighted ozone and PM(2.5) concentrations (p < 0.01); and transit supply is associated with lower population-weighted PM(2.5) concentrations (p < 0.1). Among pollutants, interquartile range changes in urban form variables are associated with 4%-12% changes in population-weighted concentrations-amounts comparable, for example, to changes in climatic factors. Our empirical findings are consistent with prior modeling research and suggest that urban form could potentially play a modest but important role in achieving (or not achieving) long-term air quality goals.

Effects of Soil Type on the Damage Potential of Meloidogyne incognita on Soybean.

PubMed

Windham, G L; Barker, K R

1986-07-01

Effects of soil type on the reproduction and damage potential of Meloidogyne incognita on soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr., were determined at five locations in North Carolina, including one site where plots with six soil types were established. M. incognita reproduced readily on a susceptible soybean cultivar in most soil types, with somewhat limited reproduction in muck soils. The relationship between initial population densities and yield varied among soil types and nematode populations. Yield losses were greatest in sandy and muck soil types, with less nematode damage occurring in the clay soil types. A North Carolina and a Georgia population of M. incognita differed greatly in their ability to reproduce on soybean and suppress growth. The North Carolina population had a moderate effect on yield in 1981 and only a slight effect in 1982. In contrast, a Georgia population severely limited soybean growth and yield at lower initial population densities in 1983, Initial population densities of the nematodes and physical and chemical edaphic factors accounted for much of the variation of soybean yield and nematode reproduction.

[Are simple time lags responsible for cyclic variation of population density? : A comparison of laboratory population dynamics of Brachionus calyciflorus pallas (rotatoria) with computer simulations].

PubMed

Halbach, Udo; Burkhardt, Heinz Jürgen

1972-09-01

Laboratory populations of the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus were cultured at different temperatures (25, 20, 15°C) but otherwise at constant conditions. The population densities showed relatively constant oscillations (Figs. 1 to 3A-C). Amplitudes and frequencies of the oscillations were positively correlated with temperature (Table 1). A test was made, whether the logistic growth function with simple time lag is able to describe the population curves. There are strong similarities between the simulations (Figs. 1-3E) and the real population dynamics if minor adjustments of the empirically determined parameters are made. There-fore it is suggested that time lags are responsible for the observed oscillations. However, the actual time lags probably do not act in the simple manner of the model, because birth and death rates react with different time lags, and both parameters are dependent on individual age and population density. A more complex model, which incorporates these modifications, should lead to a more realistic description of the observed oscillations.

Regulation of the seasonal population patterns of Helicoverpa armigera moths by Bt cotton planting.

PubMed

Gao, Yu-Lin; Feng, Hong-Qiang; Wu, Kong-Ming

2010-08-01

Transgenic cotton expressing the Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Cry1Ac toxin has been commercially cultivated in China since 1997, and by 2000 Bt cotton had almost completely replaced non-transgenic cotton cultivars. To evaluate the impact of Bt cotton planting on the seasonal population patterns of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera, the dynamics of H. armigera moths were monitored with light traps from four locations (Xiajin, Linqing and Dingtao of Shandong Province; Guantao of Hebei Province) in high Bt density region and five locations (Anci and Xinji of Hebei Province; Dancheng and Fengqiu of Henan Province; Gaomi of Shandong Province) in low Bt density region from 1996 to 2008. A negative correlation was found between moth densities of H. armigera and the planting years of Bt cotton in both high and low Bt density areas. These data indicate that the moth population density of H. armigera was reduced with the introduction of Bt cotton in northern China. Three generations of moths occurred between early June and late September in the cotton regions. Interestingly, second-generation moths decreased and seemed to vanish in recent years in high Bt density region, but this tendency was not found in low Bt density region. The data suggest that the planting of Bt cotton in high Bt density region was effective in controlling the population density of second-generation moths. Furthermore, the seasonal change of moth patterns associated with Bt cotton planting may regulate the regional occurrence and population development of this migratory insect.

Estimating population density for disease risk assessment: The importance of understanding the area of influence of traps using wild pigs as an example.

PubMed

Davis, Amy J; Leland, Bruce; Bodenchuk, Michael; VerCauteren, Kurt C; Pepin, Kim M

2017-06-01

Population density is a key driver of disease dynamics in wildlife populations. Accurate disease risk assessment and determination of management impacts on wildlife populations requires an ability to estimate population density alongside management actions. A common management technique for controlling wildlife populations to monitor and mitigate disease transmission risk is trapping (e.g., box traps, corral traps, drop nets). Although abundance can be estimated from trapping actions using a variety of analytical approaches, inference is limited by the spatial extent to which a trap attracts animals on the landscape. If the "area of influence" were known, abundance estimates could be converted to densities. In addition to being an important predictor of contact rate and thus disease spread, density is more informative because it is comparable across sites of different sizes. The goal of our study is to demonstrate the importance of determining the area sampled by traps (area of influence) so that density can be estimated from management-based trapping designs which do not employ a trapping grid. To provide one example of how area of influence could be calculated alongside management, we conducted a small pilot study on wild pigs (Sus scrofa) using two removal methods 1) trapping followed by 2) aerial gunning, at three sites in northeast Texas in 2015. We estimated abundance from trapping data with a removal model. We calculated empirical densities as aerial counts divided by the area searched by air (based on aerial flight tracks). We inferred the area of influence of traps by assuming consistent densities across the larger spatial scale and then solving for area impacted by the traps. Based on our pilot study we estimated the area of influence for corral traps in late summer in Texas to be ∼8.6km 2 . Future work showing the effects of behavioral and environmental factors on area of influence will help mangers obtain estimates of density from management data, and determine conditions where trap-attraction is strongest. The ability to estimate density alongside population control activities will improve risk assessment and response operations against disease outbreaks. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Pollinator visitation in populations of tristylous Eichhornia paniculata in northeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Husband, Brian C; Barrett, Spencer C H

1992-03-01

The frequencies of floral morphs in populations of tristylous Eichhornia paniculata often deviate from the theoretical expectation of equality. This variation is associated with the breakdown of tristyly and the evolution of self-fertilization. Differences in morph frequencies could result from selection pressures due to variable levels of insect visitation to populations and contrasting foraging behavior among the floral morphs. We estimated pollinator densities in 16 populations and quantified visitation sequences to morphs in five populations of E. paniculata in northeastern Brazil. Foraging behavior among floral morphs was measured as the frequency of visits to morphs relative to their frequency in the population (preference) and number of flights between inflorescences of the same versus different morphs (constancy). Pollinator density (number/m 2 /minute) was not correlated with population size, plant density or morph diversity. Pollinator densities varied most among populations of less than 200 plants. Whether pollinators discriminated among the morphs, depended on whether they primarily collected nectar or pollen. In four populations, nectar-feeding bees (Ancyloscelis and Florilegus spp.) and butterflies showed no consistent preference or constancy among the morphs. In contrast, pollen-collecting bees (Trigona sp.) visited a lower proportion of longstyled inflorescences than expected and tended to visit more mid-and short-styled inflorescences in succession, once they were encountered. Pollinator constancy for morphs did not result from differences in inflorescence production or spatial patchiness among the morphs. Although non-random pollinator visitation to morphs in heterostylous populations could potentially affect mating and hence morph frequencies, the observed visitation patterns in this study do not provide evidence that pollinators play a major role in influencing floral morph frequencies.

Metabolism drives distribution and abundance in extremophile fish

PubMed Central

McHugh, Peter A.; Glover, Chris N.; McIntosh, Angus R.

2017-01-01

Differences in population density between species of varying size are frequently attributed to metabolic rates which are assumed to scale with body size with a slope of 0.75. This assumption is often criticised on the grounds that 0.75 scaling of metabolic rate with body size is not universal and can vary significantly depending on species and life-history. However, few studies have investigated how interspecific variation in metabolic scaling relationships affects population density in different sized species. Here we predict inter-specific differences in metabolism from niche requirements, thereby allowing metabolic predictions of species distribution and abundance at fine spatial scales. Due to the differences in energetic efficiency required along harsh-benign gradients, an extremophile fish (brown mudfish, Neochanna apoda) living in harsh environments had slower metabolism, and thus higher population densities, compared to a fish species (banded kōkopu, Galaxias fasciatus) in physiologically more benign habitats. Interspecific differences in the intercepts for the relationship between body and density disappeared when species mass-specific metabolic rates, rather than body sizes, were used to predict density, implying population energy use was equivalent between mudfish and kōkopu. Nevertheless, despite significant interspecific differences in the slope of the metabolic scaling relationships, mudfish and kōkopu had a common slope for the relationship between body size and population density. These results support underlying logic of energetic equivalence between different size species implicit in metabolic theory. However, the precise slope of metabolic scaling relationships, which is the subject of much debate, may not be a reliable indicator of population density as expected under metabolic theory. PMID:29176819

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-01-01

1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). PMID:23419215

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-07-01

The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Increase in density of genetically diverse invasive Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) populations in the Gulf of Maine

PubMed Central

Williams, Larissa M.

2017-01-01

Hemigrapsus sanguineus, the Asian shore crab, has rapidly replaced Carcinus maenas, the green crab, as the most abundant crab on rocky shores in the northwest Atlantic since its introduction to the United States (USA) in 1988. The northern edge of this progressing invasion is the Gulf of Maine, where Asian shore crabs are only abundant in the south. We compared H. sanguineus population densities to those from published 2005 surveys and quantified genetic variation using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. We found that the range of H. sanguineus had extended northward since 2005, that population density had increased substantially (at least 10-fold at all sites), and that Asian shore crabs had become the dominant intertidal crab species in New Hampshire and southern Maine. Despite the significant increase in population density of H. sanguineus, populations only increased by a factor of 14 in Maine compared to 70 in southern New England, possibly due to cooler temperatures in the Gulf of Maine. Genetically, populations were predominantly composed of a single haplotype of Japanese, Korean, or Taiwanese origin, although an additional seven haplotypes were found. Six of these haplotypes were of Asian origin, while two are newly described. Large increases in population sizes of genetically diverse individuals in Maine will likely have a large ecological impact, causing a reduction in populations of mussels, barnacles, snails, and other crabs, similar to what has occurred at southern sites with large populations of this invasive crab species. PMID:28919836

HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP OF STREAMFLOW FLASHINESS WITH POPULATION DENSITY, IMPERVIOUSNESS, AND PERCENT URBAN LAND COVER IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (1)

EPA Science Inventory

Historical US Census population data was used to estimate population density for 1930-2000 and satellite imagery from circa 1973, 1992, and 2001 was used to estimate the degree of urban development and the percent imperviousness (for 1992 and 2001) for a set of 150 small (< 13...

Density of large snags and logs in northern Arizona mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Benjamin J. Bird; L. Scott Baggett; Jeffrey S. Jenness

2015-01-01

Large snags and logs provide important biological legacies and resources for native wildlife, yet data on populations of large snags and logs and factors influencing those populations are sparse. We monitored populations of large snags and logs in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in northern Arizona from 1997 through 2012. We modeled density...

Effects of dazomet, metam sodium, and oxamyl on Longidorus populations and loblolly pine seedline production

Treesearch

Stephen W. Fraedrich; L. David Dwinell

2005-01-01

Dazomet, metam sodium, and oxamyl were evaluated for nematode control and production of loblolly pine seedlings in a field infested by a Longidorus sp. Fumigation with dazomet or metam sodium reduced population densities of longidorus to nondetectable levels early in the growing season but population densities subsequently increases to levels found in untreated control...

A Survey of Rural Population Density and Forest Fire Occurrence in the South, 1956-1970

Treesearch

A.T. Altobellis

1983-01-01

Rural residents comprise a high risk potential population regarding person-caused wildfire incidence in the South. However, rural population density (RPD=numker of people per square mile) was found to be indeterminately associated with fire occurrence rate (FOR=number of fires per million acres protected) in protected lands in 13 Southern states. Thus, changes in...

Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

2002-01-01

We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

Correlations between U.S. county annual cancer incidence and population density.

PubMed

Vares, David Ae; St-Pierre, Linda S; Persinger, Michael A

2015-01-01

Population density implicitly involves specific distances between living individuals who exhibit biophysical forces and energies. Objective was to investigate major data bases of cancer incidence and population data to help understand the emergent properties of diseases that become apparent only when large populations and areas are considered. Correlation analyses of the annual incidence (years 2007 to 2011) of cancer in counties (2,885) of the U.S. and population densities were convergent with these quantitative predictions and suggested an inflection threshold around 50 people per square mile. The potential role of subtle or even "non-local" factors coupled to averaged population density in the viability and mortality of the human species may serve as alternative explanations to the attribution of malignancy to "chance" factors. Calculations indicated average distances between the electric force dipole of the brains or bodies of human beings generate forces known to affect DNA extension and when distributed over the Compton wavelength of the electron could produce energies sufficient to affect the binding of base nucleotides. An inclusive science of human ecology might benefit from considering subtle forces and energies associated with the individual members within the habitat that could determine the probability of cellular anomalies.

Challenging the Wigglesworthia, Sodalis, Wolbachia symbiosis dogma in tsetse flies: Spiroplasma is present in both laboratory and natural populations.

PubMed

Doudoumis, V; Blow, F; Saridaki, A; Augustinos, A; Dyer, N A; Goodhead, I; Solano, P; Rayaisse, J-B; Takac, P; Mekonnen, S; Parker, A G; Abd-Alla, A M M; Darby, A; Bourtzis, K; Tsiamis, G

2017-07-05

Profiling of wild and laboratory tsetse populations using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing allowed us to examine whether the "Wigglesworthia-Sodalis-Wolbachia dogma" operates across species and populations. The most abundant taxa, in wild and laboratory populations, were Wigglesworthia (the primary endosymbiont), Sodalis and Wolbachia as previously characterized. The species richness of the microbiota was greater in wild than laboratory populations. Spiroplasma was identified as a new symbiont exclusively in Glossina fuscipes fuscipes and G. tachinoides, members of the palpalis sub-group, and the infection prevalence in several laboratory and natural populations was surveyed. Multi locus sequencing typing (MLST) analysis identified two strains of tsetse-associated Spiroplasma, present in G. f. fuscipes and G. tachinoides. Spiroplasma density in G. f. fuscipes larva guts was significantly higher than in guts from teneral and 15-day old male and female adults. In gonads of teneral and 15-day old insects, Spiroplasma density was higher in testes than ovaries, and was significantly higher density in live versus prematurely deceased females indicating a potentially mutualistic association. Higher Spiroplasma density in testes than in ovaries was also detected by fluorescent in situ hybridization in G. f. fuscipes.

Population viability of the Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, John M.

1995-01-01

In the presence of historical data, population viability models of intermediate complexity can be parameterized and utilized to project the consequences of various management actions for endangered species. A general stochastic population dynamics model with density feedback, age structure, and autocorrelated environmental fluctuations was constructed and parameterized for best fit over 36 years of spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd count data in five Idaho index streams. Simulations indicate that persistence of the Snake River spring chinook salmon population depends primarily on density-independent mortality. Improvement of rearing habitat, predator control, reduced fishing pressure, and improved dam passage all would alleviate density-independent mortality. The current value of the Ricker α should provide for a continuation of the status quo. A recovery of the population to 1957–1961 levels within 100 years would require an approximately 75% increase in survival and (or) fecundity. Manipulations of the Ricker β are likely to have little or no effect on persistence versus extinction, but considerable influence on population size.

The influence of predation on the chronic response of Artemia sp. populations to a toxicant

PubMed Central

BEKETOV, MIKHAIL A; LIESS, MATTHIAS

2006-01-01

Environmental risk assessment of contaminants is conventionally based on toxic effects assessed in organism-level test systems. We suggest that, for the prediction of toxicant effects, population- and community-level effects should be considered. The aim of this study was to investigate how predation could alter a prey population's response to a toxicant to reveal effects at population and community levels.Populations of the brine shrimp Artemia sp. were maintained in the laboratory with and without simulated predation. Individuals were exposed for 1 h to the pyrethroid insecticide esfenvalerate (0, 0·01, 0·04 and 0·08 µg L−1) and subsequently observed for 6 weeks.Unpredated exposed populations showed a reduced population density compared with the control. However, even at the highest concentration of insecticide, populations were sustained until the end of the experiment. The lower density in the exposed populations led to reduced competition and subsequently to enhanced development of surviving individuals and an increased proportion of young individuals. In contrast, the combination of predation and short-term toxicant exposure at concentrations of 0·04 and 0·08 µg L−1 produced extinction of the populations after 39 and 32 days of exposure, respectively.Synthesis and applications. The response of populations of brine shrimp to toxicants at the community level may be stronger when predation is present than the response of populations without predation pressure, as the regulation capacity of the population (measured as an increased production of offspring at reduced population densities) is exhausted when predation is present. Future ecotoxicological risk assessment schemes should consider relevant community characteristics such as predation as part of an environmental risk assessment. PMID:18784796

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate of those species that rely on cooperation for their survival. PMID:23637571

Evolution of increased adult longevity in Drosophila melanogaster populations selected for adaptation to larval crowding.

PubMed

Shenoi, V N; Ali, S Z; Prasad, N G

2016-02-01

In holometabolous animals such as Drosophila melanogaster, larval crowding can affect a wide range of larval and adult traits. Adults emerging from high larval density cultures have smaller body size and increased mean life span compared to flies emerging from low larval density cultures. Therefore, adaptation to larval crowding could potentially affect adult longevity as a correlated response. We addressed this issue by studying a set of large, outbred populations of D. melanogaster, experimentally evolved for adaptation to larval crowding for 83 generations. We assayed longevity of adult flies from both selected (MCUs) and control populations (MBs) after growing them at different larval densities. We found that MCUs have evolved increased mean longevity compared to MBs at all larval densities. The interaction between selection regime and larval density was not significant, indicating that the density dependence of mean longevity had not evolved in the MCU populations. The increase in longevity in MCUs can be partially attributed to their lower rates of ageing. It is also noteworthy that reaction norm of dry body weight, a trait probably under direct selection in our populations, has indeed evolved in MCU populations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of the evolution of adult longevity as a correlated response of adaptation to larval crowding. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Differing Mechanisms Underlie Sexual Size-Dimorphism in Two Populations of a Sex-Changing Fish

PubMed Central

McCormick, Mark I.; Ryen, Christopher A.; Munday, Philip L.; Walker, Stefan P. W.

2010-01-01

Variability in the density of groups within a patchy environment lead to differences in interaction rates, growth dynamics and social organization. In protogynous hermaphrodites there are hypothesised trade-offs among sex-specific growth, reproductive output and mortality. When differences in density lead to changes to social organization the link between growth and the timing of sex-change is predicted to change. The present study explores this prediction by comparing the social organisation and sex-specific growth of two populations of a protogynous tropical wrasse, Halichoeres miniatus, which differ in density. At a low density population a strict harem structure was found, where males maintained a tight monopoly of access and spawning rights to females. In contrast, at a high density population a loosely organised system prevailed, where females could move throughout multiple male territories. Otolith microstructure revealed the species to be annual and deposit an otolith check associated with sex-change. Growth trajectories suggested that individuals that later became males in both populations underwent a growth acceleration at sex-change. Moreover, in the high density population, individuals that later became males were those individuals that had the largest otolith size at hatching and consistently deposited larger increments throughout early larval, juvenile and female life. This study demonstrates that previous growth history and growth rate changes associated with sex change can be responsible for the sexual dimorphism typically found in sex-changing species, and that the relative importance of these may be socially constrained. PMID:20485547

Pre-Bombing Population Density in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: Its Measurement and Impact on Radiation Risk Estimates in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors.

PubMed

French, Benjamin; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Sakata, Ritsu; Cologne, John; Cullings, Harry M; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Preston, Dale L

2018-03-29

In the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors, differences in urbanicity between high-dose and low-dose survivors could confound the association between radiation dose and adverse outcomes. We obtained data on the pre-bombing population distribution in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and quantified the impact of adjustment for population density on radiation risk estimates for mortality (1950-2003) and incident solid cancer (1958-2009). Population density ranged from 4,671-14,378 and 5,748-19,149 people/km2 in urban regions of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. Radiation risk estimates for solid cancer mortality were attenuated by 5.1%, but those for all-cause mortality and incident solid cancer were unchanged. There was no overall association between population density and adverse outcomes, but there was evidence that the association between density and mortality differed by age at exposure. Among survivors 10-14 years old in 1945, there was a positive association between population density and risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk, 1.053 per 5,000 people/km2 increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.027, 1.079) and solid cancer mortality (relative risk, 1.069 per 5,000 people/km2 increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.025, 1.115). Our results suggest that radiation risk estimates from the Life Span Study are not sensitive to unmeasured confounding by urban-rural differences.

Population density shapes patterns of survival and reproduction in Eleutheria dichotoma (Hydrozoa: Anthoathecata).

PubMed

Dańko, Aleksandra; Schaible, Ralf; Pijanowska, Joanna; Dańko, Maciej J

2018-01-01

Budding hydromedusae have high reproductive rates due to asexual reproduction and can occur in high population densities along the coasts, specifically in tidal pools. In laboratory experiments, we investigated the effects of population density on the survival and reproductive strategies of a single clone of Eleutheria dichotoma . We found that sexual reproduction occurs with the highest rate at medium population densities. Increased sexual reproduction was associated with lower budding (asexual reproduction) and survival probability. Sexual reproduction results in the production of motile larvae that can, in contrast to medusae, seek to escape unfavorable conditions by actively looking for better environments. The successful settlement of a larva results in starting the polyp stage, which is probably more resistant to environmental conditions. This is the first study that has examined the life-history strategies of the budding hydromedusa E. dichotoma by conducting a long-term experiment with a relatively large sample size that allowed for the examination of age-specific mortality and reproductive rates. We found that most sexual and asexual reproduction occurred at the beginning of life following a very rapid process of maturation. The parametric models fitted to the mortality data showed that population density was associated with an increase in the rate of aging, an increase in the level of late-life mortality plateau, and a decrease in the hidden heterogeneity in individual mortality rates. The effects of population density on life-history traits are discussed in the context of resource allocation and the r/K-strategies' continuum concept.

The influence of density on adults and juveniles of the estuarine fish, the sheepshead minnow (cyprinodon variegatus)

EPA Science Inventory

The relationship between population density and demographic rates (e.g. survival, reproduction, growth) is critical to understand population dynamics and has been widely studied in fishes. Estuarine species are regularly exposed to dramatic changes in density with daily, monthly,...

[On the rational distribution of Chinese population].

PubMed

Zhu, Z

1980-01-01

In 1949, the population distribution in China was characterized by the following distinct features. First, it was unbalanced, with high density in the eastern regions, in the plains, and in areas adjacent to railroads, river navigation routes and other transportation axes. Low population density was found in the western regions, mountainous regions, and areas far from transportation routes. Second, Hans were largest in number and distributed throughout the country, with major concentration in the eastern regions, while the minorities constituted about 10% of the total population and were distributed mainly in the far southwestern and northwestern areas. Third, over 89% of the 540 million of the population was distributed in rural areas while only about 10% in towns and cities, with high densities in some coastal cities. During the past 3 decades, the unbalanced nature of China's population has remained basically unchanged. This can be attributed to factors relating to natural conditions and resources, productivities, socioeconomic conditions, and technological development in different regions. In order to achieve a rational distribution of the Chinese population the following measures should be taken: 1) controlling the birth rate of the Hans and increasing the population of minorities; 2) moving the population of the dense areas to the border provinces in the western regions to develop their natural resources and to elevate the living standards; 3) modernizing the rural areas; 4) strictly controlling the industrial developments of large cities and their population growth; and 5) strictly restricting the unplanned migration of population to and from cities.

Imidacloprid-susceptible Nilaparvata lugens individuals exceeded resistant individuals in a mixture population with density pressure.

PubMed

Yu, Na; Tian, Jiahua; Zhang, Yixi; Li, Zhong; Liu, Zewen

2018-01-01

Fitness costs associated with insecticide resistance in pest insects have mainly been studied under optimal laboratory conditions. However, resistant insects face more stressors than just insecticides in the field, and how the resistant population reacts to these stressors is of practical importance for the control of pest insects such as the brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens. The aim of the present study was to explore the impact of population density on the competitiveness of resistant and susceptible individuals. Two isogenic N. lugens populations, a highly imidacloprid-resistant population (HZ-R) with a resistance ratio (RR) of 227.10 and a relatively susceptible population (HZ-S) with an RR of 2.99, were created from a field-resistant population (HZ; RR 62.51). The high resistance levels of HZ-R and HZ were mainly attributable to the overexpression of multiple cytochrome P450 (CYP) genes such as CYP6ER1, CYP6AY1, CYP6CW1 and CYP4CE1 compared with HZ-S, this being supported by piperonyl butoxide synergism. HZ-R was observed to be more resistant to thiacloprid and etofenprox compared with HZ and HZ-S. Most interestingly, in high population density treatments, HZ-S individuals were much more competitive than HZ-R individuals. Imidacloprid-resistant individuals of N. lugens are less competitive than their susceptible counterparts under density pressure. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Population as a proxy for infrastructure in the determination of event response and recovery resource allocations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stamber, Kevin L.; Unis, Carl J.; Shirah, Donald N.

Research into modeling of the quantification and prioritization of resources used in the recovery of lifeline critical infrastructure following disruptive incidents, such as hurricanes and earthquakes, has shown several factors to be important. Among these are population density and infrastructure density, event effects on infrastructure, and existence of an emergency response plan. The social sciences literature has a long history of correlating the population density and infrastructure density at a national scale, at a country-to-country level, mainly focused on transportation networks. This effort examines whether these correlations can be repeated at smaller geographic scales, for a variety of infrastructure types,more » so as to be able to use population data as a proxy for infrastructure data where infrastructure data is either incomplete or insufficiently granular. Using the best data available, this effort shows that strong correlations between infrastructure density for multiple types of infrastructure (e.g. miles of roads, hospital beds, miles of electric power transmission lines, and number of petroleum terminals) and population density do exist at known geographic boundaries (e.g. counties, service area boundaries) with exceptions that are explainable within the social sciences literature. Furthermore, the correlations identified provide a useful basis for ongoing research into the larger resource utilization problem.« less

Population as a proxy for infrastructure in the determination of event response and recovery resource allocations

DOE PAGES

Stamber, Kevin L.; Unis, Carl J.; Shirah, Donald N.; ...

2016-04-01

Research into modeling of the quantification and prioritization of resources used in the recovery of lifeline critical infrastructure following disruptive incidents, such as hurricanes and earthquakes, has shown several factors to be important. Among these are population density and infrastructure density, event effects on infrastructure, and existence of an emergency response plan. The social sciences literature has a long history of correlating the population density and infrastructure density at a national scale, at a country-to-country level, mainly focused on transportation networks. This effort examines whether these correlations can be repeated at smaller geographic scales, for a variety of infrastructure types,more » so as to be able to use population data as a proxy for infrastructure data where infrastructure data is either incomplete or insufficiently granular. Using the best data available, this effort shows that strong correlations between infrastructure density for multiple types of infrastructure (e.g. miles of roads, hospital beds, miles of electric power transmission lines, and number of petroleum terminals) and population density do exist at known geographic boundaries (e.g. counties, service area boundaries) with exceptions that are explainable within the social sciences literature. Furthermore, the correlations identified provide a useful basis for ongoing research into the larger resource utilization problem.« less

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Parasitism alters three power laws of scaling in a metazoan community: Taylor’s law, density-mass allometry, and variance-mass allometry

PubMed Central

Lagrue, Clément; Poulin, Robert; Cohen, Joel E.

2015-01-01

How do the lifestyles (free-living unparasitized, free-living parasitized, and parasitic) of animal species affect major ecological power-law relationships? We investigated this question in metazoan communities in lakes of Otago, New Zealand. In 13,752 samples comprising 1,037,058 organisms, we found that species of different lifestyles differed in taxonomic distribution and body mass and were well described by three power laws: a spatial Taylor’s law (the spatial variance in population density was a power-law function of the spatial mean population density); density-mass allometry (the spatial mean population density was a power-law function of mean body mass); and variance-mass allometry (the spatial variance in population density was a power-law function of mean body mass). To our knowledge, this constitutes the first empirical confirmation of variance-mass allometry for any animal community. We found that the parameter values of all three relationships differed for species with different lifestyles in the same communities. Taylor's law and density-mass allometry accurately predicted the form and parameter values of variance-mass allometry. We conclude that species of different lifestyles in these metazoan communities obeyed the same major ecological power-law relationships but did so with parameters specific to each lifestyle, probably reflecting differences among lifestyles in population dynamics and spatial distribution. PMID:25550506

Parasitism alters three power laws of scaling in a metazoan community: Taylor's law, density-mass allometry, and variance-mass allometry.

PubMed

Lagrue, Clément; Poulin, Robert; Cohen, Joel E

2015-02-10

How do the lifestyles (free-living unparasitized, free-living parasitized, and parasitic) of animal species affect major ecological power-law relationships? We investigated this question in metazoan communities in lakes of Otago, New Zealand. In 13,752 samples comprising 1,037,058 organisms, we found that species of different lifestyles differed in taxonomic distribution and body mass and were well described by three power laws: a spatial Taylor's law (the spatial variance in population density was a power-law function of the spatial mean population density); density-mass allometry (the spatial mean population density was a power-law function of mean body mass); and variance-mass allometry (the spatial variance in population density was a power-law function of mean body mass). To our knowledge, this constitutes the first empirical confirmation of variance-mass allometry for any animal community. We found that the parameter values of all three relationships differed for species with different lifestyles in the same communities. Taylor's law and density-mass allometry accurately predicted the form and parameter values of variance-mass allometry. We conclude that species of different lifestyles in these metazoan communities obeyed the same major ecological power-law relationships but did so with parameters specific to each lifestyle, probably reflecting differences among lifestyles in population dynamics and spatial distribution.

Genetic diversity affects the strength of population regulation in a marine fish.

PubMed

Johnson, D W; Freiwald, J; Bernardi, G

2016-03-01

Variation is an essential feature of biological populations, yet much of ecological theory treats individuals as though they are identical. This simplifying assumption is often justified by the perception that variation among individuals does not have significant effects on the dynamics of whole populations. However, this perception may be skewed by a historic focus on studying single populations. A true evaluation of the extent to which among-individual variation affects the dynamics of populations requires the study of multiple populations. In this study, we examined variation in the dynamics of populations of a live-bearing, marine fish (black surfperch; Embiotoca jacksoni). In collaboration with an organization of citizen scientists (Reef Check California), we were able to examine the dynamics of eight populations that were distributed throughout approximately 700 km of coastline, a distance that encompasses much of this species' range. We hypothesized that genetic variation within a local population would be related to the intensity of competition and to the strength of population regulation. To test this hypothesis, we examined whether genetic diversity (measured by the diversity of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes) was related to the strength of population regulation. Low-diversity populations experienced strong density dependence in population growth rates and population sizes were regulated much more tightly than they were in high-diversity populations. Mechanisms that contributed to this pattern include links between genetic diversity, habitat use, and spatial crowding. On average, low-diversity populations used less of the available habitat and exhibited greater spatial clustering (and more intense competition) for a given level of density (measured at the scale of the reef). Although the populations we studied also varied with respect to exogenous characteristics (habitat complexity, densities of predators, and interspecific competitors), none of these characteristics was significantly related to the strength of population regulation. In contrast, an endogenous characteristic of the population (genetic diversity) explained 77% of the variation in the strength of population regulation (95% CI: 27-94%). Our results suggest that the genetic and phenotypic composition of populations can play a major role in their dynamics.

Soil Bacterial Diversity Is Associated with Human Population Density in Urban Greenspaces.

PubMed

Wang, Haitao; Cheng, Minying; Dsouza, Melissa; Weisenhorn, Pamela; Zheng, Tianling; Gilbert, Jack A

2018-05-01

Urban greenspaces provide extensive ecosystem services, including pollutant remediation, water management, carbon maintenance, and nutrient cycling. However, while the urban soil microbiota underpin these services, we still have limited understanding of the factors that influence their distribution. We characterized soil bacterial communities from turf-grasses associated with urban parks, streets, and residential sites across a major urban environment, including a gradient of human population density. Bacterial diversity was significantly positively correlated with the population density; and species diversity was greater in park and street soils, compared to residential soils. Population density and greenspace type also led to significant differences in the microbial community composition that was also significantly correlated with soil pH, moisture, and texture. Co-occurrence network analysis revealed that microbial guilds in urban soils were well correlated. Abundant soil microbes in high density population areas had fewer interactions, while abundant bacteria in high moisture soils had more interactions. These results indicate the significant influence of changes in urban demographics and land-use on soil microbial communities. As urbanization is rapidly growing across the planet, it is important to improve our understanding of the consequences of urban zoning on the soil microbiota.

Population density of North American elk: effects on plant diversity.

PubMed

Stewart, Kelley M; Bowyer, R Terry; Kie, John G; Dick, Brian L; Ruess, Roger W

2009-08-01

Large, herbivorous mammals have profound effects on ecosystem structure and function and often act as keystone species in ecosystems they inhabit. Density-dependent processes associated with population structure of large mammals may interact with ecosystem functioning to increase or decrease biodiversity, depending on the relationship of herbivore populations relative to the carrying capacity (K) of the ecosystem. We tested for indirect effects of population density of large herbivores on plant species richness and diversity in a montane ecosystem, where increased net aboveground primary productivity (NAPP) in response to low levels of herbivory has been reported. We documented a positive, linear relationship between plant-species diversity and richness with NAPP. Structural equation modeling revealed significant indirect relationships between population density of herbivores, NAPP, and species diversity. We observed an indirect effect of density-dependent processes in large, herbivorous mammals and species diversity of plants through changes in NAPP in this montane ecosystem. Changes in species diversity of plants in response to herbivory may be more indirect in ecosystems with long histories of herbivory. Those subtle or indirect effects of herbivory may have strong effects on ecosystem functioning, but may be overlooked in plant communities that are relatively resilient to herbivory.

A generalized population dynamics model for reproductive interference with absolute density dependence.

PubMed

Kyogoku, Daisuke; Sota, Teiji

2017-05-17

Interspecific mating interactions, or reproductive interference, can affect population dynamics, species distribution and abundance. Previous population dynamics models have assumed that the impact of frequency-dependent reproductive interference depends on the relative abundances of species. However, this assumption could be an oversimplification inappropriate for making quantitative predictions. Therefore, a more general model to forecast population dynamics in the presence of reproductive interference is required. Here we developed a population dynamics model to describe the absolute density dependence of reproductive interference, which appears likely when encounter rate between individuals is important. Our model (i) can produce diverse shapes of isoclines depending on parameter values and (ii) predicts weaker reproductive interference when absolute density is low. These novel characteristics can create conditions where coexistence is stable and independent from the initial conditions. We assessed the utility of our model in an empirical study using an experimental pair of seed beetle species, Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis. Reproductive interference became stronger with increasing total beetle density even when the frequencies of the two species were kept constant. Our model described the effects of absolute density and showed a better fit to the empirical data than the existing model overall.

Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta.

PubMed

Bateman, Andrew W; Ozgul, Arpat; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2012-05-01

1. For social species, the link between individual behaviour and population dynamics is mediated by group-level demography. 2. Populations of obligate cooperative breeders are structured into social groups, which may be subject to inverse density dependence (Allee effects) that result from a dependence on conspecific helpers, but evidence for population-wide Allee effects is rare. 3. We use field data from a long-term study of cooperative meerkats (Suricata suricatta; Schreber, 1776) - a species for which local Allee effects are not reflected in population-level dynamics - to empirically model interannual group dynamics. 4. Using phenomenological population models, modified to incorporate environmental conditions and potential Allee effects, we first investigate overall patterns of group dynamics and find support only for conventional density dependence that increases after years of low rainfall. 5. To explain the observed patterns, we examine specific demographic rates and assess their contributions to overall group dynamics. Although per-capita meerkat mortality is subject to a component Allee effect, it contributes relatively little to observed variation in group dynamics, and other (conventionally density dependent) demographic rates - especially emigration - govern group dynamics. 6. Our findings highlight the need to consider demographic processes and density dependence in subpopulations before drawing conclusions about how behaviour affects population processes in socially complex systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Density and population estimate of gibbons (Hylobates albibarbis) in the Sabangau catchment, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia.

PubMed

Cheyne, Susan M; Thompson, Claire J H; Phillips, Abigail C; Hill, Robyn M C; Limin, Suwido H

2008-01-01

We demonstrate that although auditory sampling is a useful tool, this method alone will not provide a truly accurate indication of population size, density and distribution of gibbons in an area. If auditory sampling alone is employed, we show that data collection must take place over a sufficient period to account for variation in calling patterns across seasons. The population of Hylobates albibarbis in the Sabangau catchment, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, was surveyed from July to December 2005 using methods established previously. In addition, auditory sampling was complemented by detailed behavioural data on six habituated groups within the study area. Here we compare results from this study to those of a 1-month study conducted in 2004. The total population of the Sabangau catchment is estimated to be about in the tens of thousands, though numbers, distribution and density for the different forest subtypes vary considerably. We propose that future density surveys of gibbons must include data from all forest subtypes where gibbons are found and that extrapolating from one forest subtype is likely to yield inaccurate density and population estimates. We also propose that auditory census be carried out by using at least three listening posts (LP) in order to increase the area sampled and the chances of hearing groups. Our results suggest that the Sabangau catchment contains one of the largest remaining contiguous populations of Bornean agile gibbon.

49 CFR 192.609 - Change in class location: Required study.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... in class location: Required study. Whenever an increase in population density indicates a change in... account, for the segment of pipeline involved; and (f) The actual area affected by the population density...

49 CFR 192.609 - Change in class location: Required study.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... in class location: Required study. Whenever an increase in population density indicates a change in... account, for the segment of pipeline involved; and (f) The actual area affected by the population density...

Population cycles in small rodents.

PubMed

Krebs, C J; Gaines, M S; Keller, B L; Myers, J H; Tamarin, R H

1973-01-05

We conclude that population fluctuations in Microtus in southern Indiana are produced by a syndrome of changes in birth and death rates similar to that found in other species of voles and lemmings. The mechanisms which cause the changes in birth and death rates are demolished by fencing the population so that no dispersal can occur. Dispersal thus seems critical for population regulation in Microtus. Because most dispersal occurs during the increase phase of the population cycle and there is little dispersal during the decline phase, dispersal is not directly related to population density. Hence the quality of dispersing animals must be important, and we have found one case of increased dispersal tendency by one genotype. The failure of population regulation of Microtus in enclosed areas requires an explanation by any hypothesis attempting to explain population cycles in small rodents. It might be suggested that the fence changed the predation pressure on the enclosed populations. However, the fence was only 2 feet (0.6 meter) high and did not stop the entrance of foxes, weasels, shrews, or avian predators. A striking feature was that the habitat in the enclosures quickly recovered from complete devastation by the start of the spring growing season. Obviously the habitat and food quality were sufficient to support Microtus populations of abnormally high densities, and recovery of the habitat was sufficiently quick that the introduction of new animals to these enclosed areas resulted in another population explosion. Finally, hypotheses of population regulation by social stress must account for the finding that Microtus can exist at densities several times greater than normal without "stress" taking an obvious toll. We hypothesize that the prevention of dispersal changes the quality of the populations in the enclosures in comparison to those outside the fence. Voles forced to remain in an overcrowded fenced population do not suffer high mortality rates and continue to reproduce at abnormally high densities until starvation overtakes them. The initial behavioral interactions associated with crowding do not seem sufficient to cause voles to die in situ. What happens to animals during the population decline? Our studies have not answered this question. The animals did not appear to disperse, but it is possible that the method we used to measure dispersal (movement into a vacant habitat) missed a large segment of dispersing voles which did not remain in the vacant area but kept on moving. Perhaps the dispersal during the increase phase of the population cycle is a colonization type of dispersal, and the animals taking part in it are likely to stay in a new habitat, while during the population decline dispersal is a pathological response to high density, and the animals are not attracted to settling even in a vacant habitat. The alternative to this suggestion is that animals are dying in situ during the decline because of physiological or genetically determined behavioral stress. Thus the fencing of a population prevents the change in rates of survival and reproduction, from high rates in the increase phase to low rates in the decline phase, and the fenced populations resemble "mouse plagues." A possible explanation is that the differential dispersal of animals during the phase of increase causes the quality of the voles remaining at peak densities in wild populations to be different from the quality of voles at much higher densities in enclosures. Increased sensitivity to density in Microtus could cause the decline of wild populations at densities lower than those reached by fenced populations in which selection through dispersal has been prevented. Fencing might also alter the social interactions among Microtus in other ways that are not understood. The analysis of colonizing species by MacArthur and Wilson (27) can be applied to our studies of dispersal in populations of Microtus. Groups of organisms with good dispersal and colonizing ability are called r strategists because they have high reproductive potential and are able to exploit a new environment rapidly. Dispersing voles seem to be r strategists. Young females in breeding condition were over-represented in dispersing female Microtus (17). The Tf(C)/Tf(E) females, which were more common among dispersers during the phase of population increase (Fig. 6), also have a slight reproductive advantage over the other Tf genotypes (19). Thus in Microtus populations the animals with the highest reproductive potential, the r strategists, are dispersing. The segment of the population which remains behind after the selection-via-dispersal are those individuals which are less influenced by increasing population densities. These are the individuals which maximize use of the habitat, the K strategists in MacArthur and Wilson's terminology, or voles selected for spacing behavior. Thus we can describe population cycles in Microtus in the same theoretical framework as colonizing species on islands. Our work on Microtus is consistent with the hypothesis of genetic and behavioral effects proposed by Chitty (6) (Fig. 7) in that it shows both behavioral differences in males during the phases of population fluctuation and periods of strong genetic selection. The greatest gaps in our knowledge are in the area of genetic-behavioral interactions which are most difficult to measure. We have no information on the heritability of aggressive behavior in voles. The pathways by which behavioral events are translated into physiological changes which affect reproduction and growth have been carefully analyzed by Christian and his associates (28) for rodents in laboratory situations, but the application of these findings to the complex field events described above remains to be done. Several experiments are suggested by our work. First, other populations of other rodent species should increase to abnormal densities if enclosed in a large fenced area (29). We need to find situations in which this prediction is not fulfilled. Island populations may be an important source of material for such an experiment (30). Second, if one-way exit doors were provided from a fenced area, normal population regulation through dispersal should occur. This experiment would provide another method by which dispersers could be identified. Third, if dispersal were prevented after a population reached peak densities, a normal decline phase should occur. This prediction is based on the assumption that dispersal during the increase phase is sufficient to ensure the decline phase 1 or 2 years later. All these experiments are concerned with the dispersal factor, and our work on Microtus can be summarized by the admonition: study dispersal.

Fatal disease and demographic Allee effect: population persistence and extinction.

PubMed

Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2012-01-01

If a healthy stable host population at the disease-free equilibrium is subject to the Allee effect, can a small number of infected individuals with a fatal disease cause the host population to go extinct? That is, does the Allee effect matter at high densities? To answer this question, we use a susceptible-infected epidemic model to obtain model parameters that lead to host population persistence (with or without infected individuals) and to host extinction. We prove that the presence of an Allee effect in host demographics matters even at large population densities. We show that a small perturbation to the disease-free equilibrium can eventually lead to host population extinction. In addition, we prove that additional deaths due to a fatal infectious disease effectively increase the Allee threshold of the host population demographics.

Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States, 1980–2012

PubMed Central

FUSSELL, ELIZABETH; CURRAN, SARA R.; DUNBAR, MATTHEW D.; BABB, MICHAEL A.; THOMPSON, LUANNE; MEIJER-IRONS, JACQUELINE

2017-01-01

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies. PMID:29326480

Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States, 1980-2012.

PubMed

Fussell, Elizabeth; Curran, Sara R; Dunbar, Matthew D; Babb, Michael A; Thompson, Luanne; Meijer-Irons, Jacqueline

2017-01-01

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies.

A fitness trade-off between seasons causes multigenerational cycles in phenotype and population size

PubMed Central

Betini, Gustavo S; McAdam, Andrew G; Griswold, Cortland K; Norris, D Ryan

2017-01-01

Although seasonality is widespread and can cause fluctuations in the intensity and direction of natural selection, we have little information about the consequences of seasonal fitness trade-offs for population dynamics. Here we exposed populations of Drosophila melanogaster to repeated seasonal changes in resources across 58 generations and used experimental and mathematical approaches to investigate how viability selection on body size in the non-breeding season could affect demography. We show that opposing seasonal episodes of natural selection on body size interacted with both direct and delayed density dependence to cause populations to undergo predictable multigenerational density cycles. Our results provide evidence that seasonality can set the conditions for life-history trade-offs and density dependence, which can, in turn, interact to cause multigenerational population cycles. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18770.001 PMID:28164780

Influence of landscape-scale factors in limiting brook trout populations in Pennsylvania streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kocovsky, P.M.; Carline, R.F.

2006-01-01

Landscapes influence the capacity of streams to produce trout through their effect on water chemistry and other factors at the reach scale. Trout abundance also fluctuates over time; thus, to thoroughly understand how spatial factors at landscape scales affect trout populations, one must assess the changes in populations over time to provide a context for interpreting the importance of spatial factors. We used data from the Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission's fisheries management database to investigate spatial factors that affect the capacity of streams to support brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and to provide models useful for their management. We assessed the relative importance of spatial and temporal variation by calculating variance components and comparing relative standard errors for spatial and temporal variation. We used binary logistic regression to predict the presence of harvestable-length brook trout and multiple linear regression to assess the mechanistic links between landscapes and trout populations and to predict population density. The variance in trout density among streams was equal to or greater than the temporal variation for several streams, indicating that differences among sites affect population density. Logistic regression models correctly predicted the absence of harvestable-length brook trout in 60% of validation samples. The r 2-value for the linear regression model predicting density was 0.3, indicating low predictive ability. Both logistic and linear regression models supported buffering capacity against acid episodes as an important mechanistic link between landscapes and trout populations. Although our models fail to predict trout densities precisely, their success at elucidating the mechanistic links between landscapes and trout populations, in concert with the importance of spatial variation, increases our understanding of factors affecting brook trout abundance and will help managers and private groups to protect and enhance populations of wild brook trout. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

OGLE-ing the Magellanic system: stellar populations in the Magellanic Bridge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skowron, D. M.; Jacyszyn, A. M.; Udalski, A.

We report the discovery of a young stellar bridge that forms a continuous connection between the Magellanic Clouds. This finding is based on number density maps for stellar populations found in data gathered by OGLE-IV that fully cover over 270 deg{sup 2} of the sky in the Magellanic Bridge area. This is the most extensive optical survey of this region to date. We find that the young population is present mainly in the western half of the MBR, which, together with the newly discovered young population in the eastern Bridge, form a continuous stream of stars connecting both galaxies alongmore » δ ∼ –73.5 deg. The young population distribution is clumped, with one of the major densities close to the SMC and the other fairly isolated and located approximately mid-way between the Clouds, which we call the OGLE island. These overdensities are well matched by H I surface density contours, although the newly found young population in the eastern Bridge is offset by ∼2 deg north from the highest H I density contour. We observe a continuity of red clump stars between the Magellanic Clouds which represent an intermediate-age population. Red clump stars are present mainly in the southern and central parts of the Magellanic Bridge, below its gaseous part, and their presence is reflected by a strong deviation from the radial density profiles of the two galaxies. This may indicate either a tidal stream of stars, or that the stellar halos of the two galaxies overlap. On the other hand, we do not observe such an overlap within an intermediate-age population represented by the top of the red giant branch and the asymptotic giant branch stars. We also see only minor mixing of the old populations of the Clouds in the southern part of the Bridge, represented by the lowest part of the red giant branch.« less

Double Trouble at High Density: Cross-Level Test of Resource-Related Adaptive Plasticity and Crowding-Related Fitness

PubMed Central

Gergs, André; Preuss, Thomas G.; Palmqvist, Annemette

2014-01-01

Population size is often regulated by negative feedback between population density and individual fitness. At high population densities, animals run into double trouble: they might concurrently suffer from overexploitation of resources and also from negative interference among individuals regardless of resource availability, referred to as crowding. Animals are able to adapt to resource shortages by exhibiting a repertoire of life history and physiological plasticities. In addition to resource-related plasticity, crowding might lead to reduced fitness, with consequences for individual life history. We explored how different mechanisms behind resource-related plasticity and crowding-related fitness act independently or together, using the water flea Daphnia magna as a case study. For testing hypotheses related to mechanisms of plasticity and crowding stress across different biological levels, we used an individual-based population model that is based on dynamic energy budget theory. Each of the hypotheses, represented by a sub-model, is based on specific assumptions on how the uptake and allocation of energy are altered under conditions of resource shortage or crowding. For cross-level testing of different hypotheses, we explored how well the sub-models fit individual level data and also how well they predict population dynamics under different conditions of resource availability. Only operating resource-related and crowding-related hypotheses together enabled accurate model predictions of D. magna population dynamics and size structure. Whereas this study showed that various mechanisms might play a role in the negative feedback between population density and individual life history, it also indicated that different density levels might instigate the onset of the different mechanisms. This study provides an example of how the integration of dynamic energy budget theory and individual-based modelling can facilitate the exploration of mechanisms behind the regulation of population size. Such understanding is important for assessment, management and the conservation of populations and thereby biodiversity in ecosystems. PMID:24626228

Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

2015-04-01

Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric cartography. This work was supported by the FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology.

Proteomic Markers of Functional Sperm Population in Bovines: Comparison of Low- and High-Density Spermatozoa Following Cryopreservation.

PubMed

D'Amours, Olivier; Frenette, Gilles; Bourassa, Sylvie; Calvo, Ézéchiel; Blondin, Patrick; Sullivan, Robert

2018-01-05

Mammalian semen contains a heterogeneous population of sperm cells. This heterogeneity results from variability in the complex processes of cell differentiation in the testis, biochemical modifications undergone by spermatozoa during transit along the male reproductive tract, interactions with secretions from accessory sex glands at ejaculation, and, in the context of reproductive technologies, in the ability of ejaculated spermatozoa to resist damage associated with freeze-thaw procedures. When submitted to density gradient centrifugation, ejaculated spermatozoa distribute themselves into two distinct populations: a low-density population characterized by low motility parameters, and a high-density population with high motility characteristics. To understand the origin of ejaculated spermatozoa heterogeneity, cryopreserved semen samples from bulls used by the artificial insemination (A.I.) industry were submitted to Percoll gradient centrifugation. Proteins from low and high density spermatozoa were then extracted with sodium deoxycholate and submitted to proteomic analysis using iTRAQ (isobaric tag for relative and absolute quantitation) methodologies. Quantification of selected sperm proteins was confirmed by multiple reaction monitoring (MRM). Overall, 31 different proteins were more abundant in low-density spermatozoa, while 80 different proteins were more abundant in the high-density subpopulation. Proteins enriched in high-density spermatozoa were markers of sperm functionality such as the glycolytic process, binding to the egg zona pellucida, and motility. Low-density spermatozoa were not solely characterized by loss of proteins and their associated functions. Chaperonin-containing TCP1s and chaperones are hallmarks of the low-density subpopulation. iTRAQ analysis revealed that other proteins such as binder of sperm proteins, histone, GPX5, ELSPBP1, and clusterin are overexpressed in low-density spermatozoa suggesting that these proteins represent defects occurring at different steps during the sperm journey. These differences contribute to the sperm cell heterogeneity present in mammalian semen.

A spatial mark–resight model augmented with telemetry data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sollmann, Rachel; Gardner, Beth; Parsons, Arielle W.; Stocking, Jessica J.; McClintock, Brett T.; Simons, Theodore R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; O’Connell, Allan F.

2013-01-01

Abundance and population density are fundamental pieces of information for population ecology and species conservation, but they are difficult to estimate for rare and elusive species. Mark-resight models are popular for estimating population abundance because they are less invasive and expensive than traditional mark-recapture. However, density estimation using mark-resight is difficult because the area sampled must be explicitly defined, historically using ad-hoc approaches. We develop a spatial mark-resight model for estimating population density that combines spatial resighting data and telemetry data. Incorporating telemetry data allows us to inform model parameters related to movement and individual location. Our model also allows 2. The model presented here will have widespread utility in future applications, especially for species that are not naturally marked.

Analysis of population structure and genetic history of cattle breeds based on high-density SNP data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Advances in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping microarrays have facilitated a new understanding of population structure and evolutionary history for several species. Most existing studies in livestock were based on low density SNP arrays. The first wave of low density SNP studies on cat...

Density dependence and climate effects in Rocky Mountain elk: an application of regression with instrumental variables for population time series with sampling error.

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Creel, Michael

2009-11-01

1. Sampling error in annual estimates of population size creates two widely recognized problems for the analysis of population growth. First, if sampling error is mistakenly treated as process error, one obtains inflated estimates of the variation in true population trajectories (Staples, Taper & Dennis 2004). Second, treating sampling error as process error is thought to overestimate the importance of density dependence in population growth (Viljugrein et al. 2005; Dennis et al. 2006). 2. In ecology, state-space models are used to account for sampling error when estimating the effects of density and other variables on population growth (Staples et al. 2004; Dennis et al. 2006). In econometrics, regression with instrumental variables is a well-established method that addresses the problem of correlation between regressors and the error term, but requires fewer assumptions than state-space models (Davidson & MacKinnon 1993; Cameron & Trivedi 2005). 3. We used instrumental variables to account for sampling error and fit a generalized linear model to 472 annual observations of population size for 35 Elk Management Units in Montana, from 1928 to 2004. We compared this model with state-space models fit with the likelihood function of Dennis et al. (2006). We discuss the general advantages and disadvantages of each method. Briefly, regression with instrumental variables is valid with fewer distributional assumptions, but state-space models are more efficient when their distributional assumptions are met. 4. Both methods found that population growth was negatively related to population density and winter snow accumulation. Summer rainfall and wolf (Canis lupus) presence had much weaker effects on elk (Cervus elaphus) dynamics [though limitation by wolves is strong in some elk populations with well-established wolf populations (Creel et al. 2007; Creel & Christianson 2008)]. 5. Coupled with predictions for Montana from global and regional climate models, our results predict a substantial reduction in the limiting effect of snow accumulation on Montana elk populations in the coming decades. If other limiting factors do not operate with greater force, population growth rates would increase substantially.

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Colchero, Fernando; Medellin, Rodrigo A; Clark, James S; Lee, Raymond; Katul, Gabriel G

2009-05-01

1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.

Demographic response of black bears at Cold Lake, Alberta, to the removal of adult males

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, Glen A.; Ruff, Robert L.

2001-01-01

Previous reports described an increase in population density following the removal of 23 adult male black bears (Ursus americanus) from a 218-km2 study area near Cold Lake, Alberta (the CLSA). This finding plays a central role in continuing debates over population regulation in bears, but has recently been criticized because density estimates were based on assumptions that were not met. Moreover, subsequent discussion has been predicated on conjecture that human exploitation had minimal influence on population dynamics. Our reanalysis supports previous descriptions of trends in bear density at Cold Lake. However, survival records revealed heavier exploitation than previously suspected. An underlying assumption of previous interpretationsCthat the Cold Lake bear population was naturally regulated near carrying capacityCno longer seems reasonable. Adult males deterred bears in other sex-age groups from using the CLSA; however, we found no evidence that birth or death rates were affected. The observed increase in local density should not be construed as a density-dependent response. Abrupt changes in local density might not have occurred if males had been removed from a larger area encompassing the CLSA.

Application of adaptive cluster sampling to low-density populations of freshwater mussels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, D.R.; Villella, R.F.; Lemarie, D.P.

2003-01-01

Freshwater mussels appear to be promising candidates for adaptive cluster sampling because they are benthic macroinvertebrates that cluster spatially and are frequently found at low densities. We applied adaptive cluster sampling to estimate density of freshwater mussels at 24 sites along the Cacapon River, WV, where a preliminary timed search indicated that mussels were present at low density. Adaptive cluster sampling increased yield of individual mussels and detection of uncommon species; however, it did not improve precision of density estimates. Because finding uncommon species, collecting individuals of those species, and estimating their densities are important conservation activities, additional research is warranted on application of adaptive cluster sampling to freshwater mussels. However, at this time we do not recommend routine application of adaptive cluster sampling to freshwater mussel populations. The ultimate, and currently unanswered, question is how to tell when adaptive cluster sampling should be used, i.e., when is a population sufficiently rare and clustered for adaptive cluster sampling to be efficient and practical? A cost-effective procedure needs to be developed to identify biological populations for which adaptive cluster sampling is appropriate.

Passive Baited Sequential Fly Trap

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sampling fly populations associated with human populations is needed to understand diel behavior and to monitor population densities before and after control operations. Population control measures are dependent on the results of monitoring efforts as they may provide insight into the fly behavior ...

Multiple factors affect a population of Agassiz's desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) in the Northwestern Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berry, Kristin H.; Yee, Julie L.; Coble, Ashley A.; Perry, William M.; Shields, Timothy A.

2013-01-01

Numerous factors have contributed to declines in populations of the federally threatened Agassiz's Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) and continue to limit recovery. In 2010, we surveyed a low-density population on a military test facility in the northwestern Mojave Desert of California, USA, to evaluate population status and identify potential factors contributing to distribution and low densities. Estimated densities of live tortoises ranged spatially from 1.2/km2 to 15.1/km2. Although only one death of a breeding-age tortoise was recorded for the 4-yr period prior to the survey, remains of 16 juvenile and immature tortoises were found, and most showed signs of predation by Common Ravens (Corvus corax) and mammals. Predation may have limited recruitment of young tortoises into the adult size classes. To evaluate the relative importance of different types of impacts to tortoises, we developed predictive models for spatially explicit densities of tortoise sign and live tortoises using topography (i.e., slope), predators (Common Raven, signs of mammalian predators), and anthropogenic impacts (distances from paved road and denuded areas, density of ordnance fragments) as covariates. Models suggest that densities of tortoise sign increased with slope and signs of mammalian predators and decreased with Common Ravens, while also varying based on interaction effects involving these predictors as well as distances from paved roads, denuded areas, and ordnance. Similarly, densities of live tortoises varied by interaction effects among distances to denuded areas and paved roads, density of ordnance fragments, and slope. Thus multiple factors predict the densities and distribution of this population.

Body mass index and overweight in relation to residence distance and population density: experience from the Northern Finland birth cohort 1966.

PubMed

Näyhä, Simo; Lankila, Tiina; Rautio, Arja; Koiranen, Markku; Tammelin, Tuija H; Taanila, Anja; Rusanen, Jarmo; Laitinen, Jaana

2013-10-08

The effect of urban sprawl on body weight in Finland is not well known. To provide more information, we examined whether body mass index (BMI) and the prevalence of overweight are associated with an individual's distance to the local community centre and population density in his/her resident area. The sample consisted of 5363 men and women, members of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC), who filled in a postal questionnaire and attended a medical checkup in 1997, at the age of 31 years. Body mass index (BMI; kg/m(2)) and the prevalence of overweight (BMI ≥ 25.0 kg/m(2)) were regressed on each subject's road distance to the resident commune's centre and on population density in the 1 km(2) geographical grid in which he/she resided, using a generalized additive model. Adjustments were made for sex, marital status, occupational class, education, leisure-time and occupational physical activity, alcohol consumption and smoking. The mean BMI among the subjects was 24.7 kg/m(2), but it increased by increasing road distance (by 1.3 kg/m(2) from 5-10 to 20-184 km) and by decreasing population density (by 1.7 kg/m(2) from 1000-19,192 to 1-5 inhabitants/km(2)). The respective increases in overweight (overall prevalence 41%) were 13 per cent units for distance and 14 per cent units for population density. Adjusted regressions based on continuous explanatory variables showed an inverse L-shaped pattern with a mean BMI of 24.6 kg/m(2) at distances shorter than 5 km and a rise of 2.6 kg/m(2) at longer distances, and an increase of 2.5 kg/m(2) from highest to lowest population density. The associations with road distance were stronger for women than men, while the sex difference in association with population density remained indeterminate. We conclude that young adults in Northern Finland who live far away from local centres or in the most sparsely populated areas are fatter than those who live close to local centres or in densely populated areas. The likely explanations include variations in everyday physical activity in different residential environments, although causality of the associations remains to be confirmed.

Body mass index and overweight in relation to residence distance and population density: experience from the Northern Finland birth cohort 1966

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The effect of urban sprawl on body weight in Finland is not well known. To provide more information, we examined whether body mass index (BMI) and the prevalence of overweight are associated with an individual’s distance to the local community centre and population density in his/her resident area. Methods The sample consisted of 5363 men and women, members of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC), who filled in a postal questionnaire and attended a medical checkup in 1997, at the age of 31 years. Body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) and the prevalence of overweight (BMI ≥ 25.0 kg/m2) were regressed on each subject’s road distance to the resident commune’s centre and on population density in the 1 km2 geographical grid in which he/she resided, using a generalized additive model. Adjustments were made for sex, marital status, occupational class, education, leisure-time and occupational physical activity, alcohol consumption and smoking. Results The mean BMI among the subjects was 24.7 kg/m2, but it increased by increasing road distance (by 1.3 kg/m2 from 5–10 to 20–184 km) and by decreasing population density (by 1.7 kg/m2 from 1000–19,192 to 1–5 inhabitants/km2). The respective increases in overweight (overall prevalence 41%) were 13 per cent units for distance and 14 per cent units for population density. Adjusted regressions based on continuous explanatory variables showed an inverse L-shaped pattern with a mean BMI of 24.6 kg/m2 at distances shorter than 5 km and a rise of 2.6 kg/m2 at longer distances, and an increase of 2.5 kg/m2 from highest to lowest population density. The associations with road distance were stronger for women than men, while the sex difference in association with population density remained indeterminate. Conclusions We conclude that young adults in Northern Finland who live far away from local centres or in the most sparsely populated areas are fatter than those who live close to local centres or in densely populated areas. The likely explanations include variations in everyday physical activity in different residential environments, although causality of the associations remains to be confirmed. PMID:24103455

[Krigle estimation and its simulated sampling of Chilo suppressalis population density].

PubMed

Yuan, Zheming; Bai, Lianyang; Wang, Kuiwu; Hu, Xiangyue

2004-07-01

In order to draw up a rational sampling plan for the larvae population of Chilo suppressalis, an original population and its two derivative populations, random population and sequence population, were sampled and compared with random sampling, gap-range-random sampling, and a new systematic sampling integrated Krigle interpolation and random original position. As for the original population whose distribution was up to aggregative and dependence range in line direction was 115 cm (6.9 units), gap-range-random sampling in line direction was more precise than random sampling. Distinguishing the population pattern correctly is the key to get a better precision. Gap-range-random sampling and random sampling are fit for aggregated population and random population, respectively, but both of them are difficult to apply in practice. Therefore, a new systematic sampling named as Krigle sample (n = 441) was developed to estimate the density of partial sample (partial estimation, n = 441) and population (overall estimation, N = 1500). As for original population, the estimated precision of Krigle sample to partial sample and population was better than that of investigation sample. With the increase of the aggregation intensity of population, Krigel sample was more effective than investigation sample in both partial estimation and overall estimation in the appropriate sampling gap according to the dependence range.

Experimental study on the interspecific interactions between the two bloom-forming algal species and the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zhihao; Xiao, Hui; Tang, Xuexi; Cai, Hengjiang

2009-06-01

The interspecific interactions between the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis and two harmful algal blooms (HAB) species were investigated experimentally by single culture method. B. plicatilis population and the growth of the two algae were compared at different algal cell densities. The results demonstrated that the B. plicatilis obtained sufficient nutrition from Prorocentrum donghaiense to support net population increase. With exposure to 2.5×104 cells mL-1 of P. donghaiense, the number of B. plicatilis increased faster than it did when exposed to other four algal densities (5, 10, 15 and 20 ×104 cells mL-1), and the increase rate of B. plicatilis population ( r) at this algal density was 0.104 ± 0.015 rd-1. Cell densities of P. donghaiense decreased due to the grazing of B. plicatilis. In contrast, Heterosigma akashiwo had an adverse effect on B. plicatilis population and its growth was largely unaffected by rotifer grazing. In this case, B. plicatilis population decreased and H. akashiwo grew at a rate similar to that of the control.

Estimating the population density of the Asian tapir (Tapirus indicus) in a selectively logged forest in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Rayan, D Mark; Mohamad, Shariff Wan; Dorward, Leejiah; Aziz, Sheema Abdul; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Christopher, Wong Chai Thiam; Traeholt, Carl; Magintan, David

2012-12-01

The endangered Asian tapir (Tapirus indicus) is threatened by large-scale habitat loss, forest fragmentation and increased hunting pressure. Conservation planning for this species, however, is hampered by a severe paucity of information on its ecology and population status. We present the first Asian tapir population density estimate from a camera trapping study targeting tigers in a selectively logged forest within Peninsular Malaysia using a spatially explicit capture-recapture maximum likelihood based framework. With a trap effort of 2496 nights, 17 individuals were identified corresponding to a density (standard error) estimate of 9.49 (2.55) adult tapirs/100 km(2) . Although our results include several caveats, we believe that our density estimate still serves as an important baseline to facilitate the monitoring of tapir population trends in Peninsular Malaysia. Our study also highlights the potential of extracting vital ecological and population information for other cryptic individually identifiable animals from tiger-centric studies, especially with the use of a spatially explicit capture-recapture maximum likelihood based framework. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Evaluating population expansion of black bears using spatial capture-recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.; Hare, Matthew P.; Hurst, Jeremy E.

2017-01-01

The population of American black bears (Ursus americanus) in southern New York, USA has been growing and expanding in range since the 1990s. This has motivated a need to anticipate future patterns of range expansion. We conducted a non-invasive, genetic, spatial capture-recapture (SCR) study to estimate black bear density and identify spatial patterns of population density that are potentially associated with range expansion. We collected hair samples in a 2,519-km2 study area in southern New York with barbed-wire hair snares and identified individuals and measured genetic diversity using 7 microsatellite loci and 1 sex-linked marker. We estimated a mean density of black bears in the region of 13.7 bears/100 km2, and detected a slight latitudinal gradient in density consistent with the documented range expansion. However, elevation and the amounts of forest, crop, and developed landcover types did not influence density, suggesting that bears are using a diversity of resources in this heterogeneous landscape outside their previously described distribution. These results provide the first robust baseline estimates for population density and distribution associated with different landcover types in the expanded bear range. Further, genetic diversity was comparable to that of non-expanding black bear populations in the eastern United States, and in combination with the latitudinal density gradient, suggest that the study area is not at the colonizing front of the range expansion. In addition, the diversity of landcover types used by bears in the study area implies a possible lack of constraints for further northern expansion of the black bear range. Our non-invasive, genetic, spatial capture-recapture approach has utility for studying populations of other species that may be expanding in range because SCR allows for the testing of explicit, spatial ecological hypotheses. 

Rural to Urban Population Density Scaling of Crime and Property Transactions in English and Welsh Parliamentary Constituencies.

PubMed

Hanley, Quentin S; Lewis, Dan; Ribeiro, Haroldo V

2016-01-01

Urban population scaling of resource use, creativity metrics, and human behaviors has been widely studied. These studies have not looked in detail at the full range of human environments which represent a continuum from the most rural to heavily urban. We examined monthly police crime reports and property transaction values across all 573 Parliamentary Constituencies in England and Wales, finding that scaling models based on population density provided a far superior framework to traditional population scaling. We found four types of scaling: i) non-urban scaling in which a single power law explained the relationship between the metrics and population density from the most rural to heavily urban environments, ii) accelerated scaling in which high population density was associated with an increase in the power-law exponent, iii) inhibited scaling where the urban environment resulted in a reduction in the power-law exponent but remained positive, and iv) collapsed scaling where transition to the high density environment resulted in a negative scaling exponent. Urban scaling transitions, when observed, took place universally between 10 and 70 people per hectare. This study significantly refines our understanding of urban scaling, making clear that some of what has been previously ascribed to urban environments may simply be the high density portion of non-urban scaling. It also makes clear that some metrics undergo specific transitions in urban environments and these transitions can include negative scaling exponents indicative of collapse. This study gives promise of far more sophisticated scale adjusted metrics and indicates that studies of urban scaling represent a high density subsection of overall scaling relationships which continue into rural environments.

Spontaneous mutation rate is a plastic trait associated with population density across domains of life.

PubMed

Krašovec, Rok; Richards, Huw; Gifford, Danna R; Hatcher, Charlie; Faulkner, Katy J; Belavkin, Roman V; Channon, Alastair; Aston, Elizabeth; McBain, Andrew J; Knight, Christopher G

2017-08-01

Rates of random, spontaneous mutation can vary plastically, dependent upon the environment. Such plasticity affects evolutionary trajectories and may be adaptive. We recently identified an inverse plastic association between mutation rate and population density at 1 locus in 1 species of bacterium. It is unknown how widespread this association is, whether it varies among organisms, and what molecular mechanisms of mutagenesis or repair are required for this mutation-rate plasticity. Here, we address all 3 questions. We identify a strong negative association between mutation rate and population density across 70 years of published literature, comprising hundreds of mutation rates estimated using phenotypic markers of mutation (fluctuation tests) from all domains of life and viruses. We test this relationship experimentally, determining that there is indeed density-associated mutation-rate plasticity (DAMP) at multiple loci in both eukaryotes and bacteria, with up to 23-fold lower mutation rates at higher population densities. We find that the degree of plasticity varies, even among closely related organisms. Nonetheless, in each domain tested, DAMP requires proteins scavenging the mutagenic oxidised nucleotide 8-oxo-dGTP. This implies that phenotypic markers give a more precise view of mutation rate than previously believed: having accounted for other known factors affecting mutation rate, controlling for population density can reduce variation in mutation-rate estimates by 93%. Widespread DAMP, which we manipulate genetically in disparate organisms, also provides a novel trait to use in the fight against the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. Such a prevalent environmental association and conserved mechanism suggest that mutation has varied plastically with population density since the early origins of life.

Spontaneous mutation rate is a plastic trait associated with population density across domains of life

PubMed Central

Gifford, Danna R.; Hatcher, Charlie; Faulkner, Katy J.; Belavkin, Roman V.; Channon, Alastair; Aston, Elizabeth; McBain, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

Rates of random, spontaneous mutation can vary plastically, dependent upon the environment. Such plasticity affects evolutionary trajectories and may be adaptive. We recently identified an inverse plastic association between mutation rate and population density at 1 locus in 1 species of bacterium. It is unknown how widespread this association is, whether it varies among organisms, and what molecular mechanisms of mutagenesis or repair are required for this mutation-rate plasticity. Here, we address all 3 questions. We identify a strong negative association between mutation rate and population density across 70 years of published literature, comprising hundreds of mutation rates estimated using phenotypic markers of mutation (fluctuation tests) from all domains of life and viruses. We test this relationship experimentally, determining that there is indeed density-associated mutation-rate plasticity (DAMP) at multiple loci in both eukaryotes and bacteria, with up to 23-fold lower mutation rates at higher population densities. We find that the degree of plasticity varies, even among closely related organisms. Nonetheless, in each domain tested, DAMP requires proteins scavenging the mutagenic oxidised nucleotide 8-oxo-dGTP. This implies that phenotypic markers give a more precise view of mutation rate than previously believed: having accounted for other known factors affecting mutation rate, controlling for population density can reduce variation in mutation-rate estimates by 93%. Widespread DAMP, which we manipulate genetically in disparate organisms, also provides a novel trait to use in the fight against the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. Such a prevalent environmental association and conserved mechanism suggest that mutation has varied plastically with population density since the early origins of life. PMID:28837573

Rural to Urban Population Density Scaling of Crime and Property Transactions in English and Welsh Parliamentary Constituencies

PubMed Central

Hanley, Quentin S.; Lewis, Dan; Ribeiro, Haroldo V.

2016-01-01

Urban population scaling of resource use, creativity metrics, and human behaviors has been widely studied. These studies have not looked in detail at the full range of human environments which represent a continuum from the most rural to heavily urban. We examined monthly police crime reports and property transaction values across all 573 Parliamentary Constituencies in England and Wales, finding that scaling models based on population density provided a far superior framework to traditional population scaling. We found four types of scaling: i) non-urban scaling in which a single power law explained the relationship between the metrics and population density from the most rural to heavily urban environments, ii) accelerated scaling in which high population density was associated with an increase in the power-law exponent, iii) inhibited scaling where the urban environment resulted in a reduction in the power-law exponent but remained positive, and iv) collapsed scaling where transition to the high density environment resulted in a negative scaling exponent. Urban scaling transitions, when observed, took place universally between 10 and 70 people per hectare. This study significantly refines our understanding of urban scaling, making clear that some of what has been previously ascribed to urban environments may simply be the high density portion of non-urban scaling. It also makes clear that some metrics undergo specific transitions in urban environments and these transitions can include negative scaling exponents indicative of collapse. This study gives promise of far more sophisticated scale adjusted metrics and indicates that studies of urban scaling represent a high density subsection of overall scaling relationships which continue into rural environments. PMID:26886219

The fall and rise of the Icelandic Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus): a 50-year demographic study on a non-cyclic Arctic fox population.

PubMed

Unnsteinsdottir, E R; Hersteinsson, P; Pálsson, S; Angerbjörn, A

2016-08-01

In territorial species, observed density dependence is often manifest in lowered reproductive output at high population density where individuals have fewer resources or are forced to inhabit low-quality territories. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) in Iceland is territorial throughout the year and feeds mostly on birds, since lemmings are absent from the country. Thus, the population does not exhibit short-term population cycles that are evident in most of the species' geographical range. The population has, however, gone through a major long-term fluctuation in population size. Because of the stability in hunting effort and reliable hunting records since 1958, the total number of adult foxes killed annually can be used as an index of population size (N t ). An index of carrying capacity (K) from population growth data for five separate time blocks during 1958-2007 revealed considerable variation in K and allowed a novel definition of population density in terms of K, or N t /K. Correlation analysis suggested that the reproductive rate was largely determined by the proportion of territorial foxes in the population. Variation in litter size and cub mortality was, on the other hand, related to climatic variation. Thus, Arctic foxes in Iceland engage in typical contest competition but can adapt their territory sizes in response to both temporal and spatial variation in carrying capacity, resulting in surprisingly little variation in litter size.

Assessment of Population Status for a White Sucker (Catostomus commersoni) Population Exposed to Bleached Kraft Pulp Mill Effluent

EPA Science Inventory

A predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) collected in the field to alterations in population growth rate. Application of this density dependent population ...

Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.

2012-01-01

The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

The role of cell size in density gradient electrophoretic separation of mouse leukemia cells according to position in the cell cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plank, L. D.; Kunze, M. E.; Todd, P. W.

1985-01-01

Cultured mouse leukemia cells line L5178Y were subjected to upward electrophoresis in a density gradient and the slower migrating cell populations were enriched in G2 cells. It is indicated that this cell line does not change electrophoretic mobility through the cell cycle. The possibility that increased sedimentation downward on the part of the larger G2 cells caused this separation was explored. Two different cell populations were investigated. The log phase population was found to migrate upward faster than the G2 population, and a similar difference between their velocities and calculated on the basis of a 1 um diameter difference between the two cell populations. The G2 and G1 enriched populations were isolated by Ficoll density gradient sedimentation. The bottom fraction was enriched in G2 cells and the top fraction was enriched with G1 cells, especially when compared with starting materials. The electrophoretic mobilities of these two cell populations did not differ significantly from one another. Cell diameter dependent migration curves were calculated and were found to be different. Families of migration curves that differ when cell size is considered as a parameter are predicted.

Floral display size, conspecific density and florivory affect fruit set in natural populations of Phlox hirsuta, an endangered species

PubMed Central

Ruane, Lauren G.; Rotzin, Andrew T.; Congleton, Philip H.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Natural variation in fruit and seed set may be explained by factors that affect the composition of pollen grains on stigmas. Self-incompatible species require compatible outcross pollen grains to produce seeds. The siring success of outcross pollen grains, however, can be hindered if self (or other incompatible) pollen grains co-occur on stigmas. This study identifies factors that determine fruit set in Phlox hirsuta, a self-sterile endangered species that is prone to self-pollination, and its associated fitness costs. Methods Multiple linear regressions were used to identify factors that explain variation in percentage fruit set within three of the five known populations of this endangered species. Florivorous beetle density, petal colour, floral display size, local conspecific density and pre-dispersal seed predation were quantified and their effects on the ability of flowers to produce fruits were assessed. Key Results In all three populations, percentage fruit set decreased as florivorous beetle density increased and as floral display size increased. The effect of floral display size on fruit set, however, often depended on the density of nearby conspecific plants. High local conspecific densities offset – even reversed – the negative effects of floral display size on percentage fruit set. Seed predation by mammals decreased fruit set in one population. Conclusions The results indicate that seed production in P. hirsuta can be maximized by selectively augmenting populations in areas containing isolated large plants, by reducing the population sizes of florivorous beetles and by excluding mammals that consume unripe fruits. PMID:24557879

Social deprivation and population density are not associated with small area risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Rooney, James P K; Tobin, Katy; Crampsie, Arlene; Vajda, Alice; Heverin, Mark; McLaughlin, Russell; Staines, Anthony; Hardiman, Orla

2015-10-01

Evidence of an association between areal ALS risk and population density has been previously reported. We aim to examine ALS spatial incidence in Ireland using small areas, to compare this analysis with our previous analysis of larger areas and to examine the associations between population density, social deprivation and ALS incidence. Residential area social deprivation has not been previously investigated as a risk factor for ALS. Using the Irish ALS register, we included all cases of ALS diagnosed in Ireland from 1995-2013. 2006 census data was used to calculate age and sex standardised expected cases per small area. Social deprivation was assessed using the pobalHP deprivation index. Bayesian smoothing was used to calculate small area relative risk for ALS, whilst cluster analysis was performed using SaTScan. The effects of population density and social deprivation were tested in two ways: (1) as covariates in the Bayesian spatial model; (2) via post-Bayesian regression. 1701 cases were included. Bayesian smoothed maps of relative risk at small area resolution matched closely to our previous analysis at a larger area resolution. Cluster analysis identified two areas of significant low risk. These areas did not correlate with population density or social deprivation indices. Two areas showing low frequency of ALS have been identified in the Republic of Ireland. These areas do not correlate with population density or residential area social deprivation, indicating that other reasons, such as genetic admixture may account for the observed findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

PubMed

Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

2013-08-01

A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline, but that it can also contribute to its regulation.

Population decline of the Elfin-woods Warbler Setophaga angelae in eastern Puerto Rico

Treesearch

W.J. Arendt; S.S. Qian; K. Mineard

2013-01-01

We estimated the population density of the globally threatened Elfin-woods Warbler Setophaga angelae within two forest types at different elevations in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in north-eastern Puerto Rico. Population densities ranged from 0.01 to 0.02 individuals/ha in elfin woodland and 0.06–0.26 individuals/ha in palo colorado forest in 2006, with average...

The eco-evolutionary responses of a generalist consumer to resource competition.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2012-10-01

This article explores the combined evolutionary and ecological responses of resource uptake abilities in a generalist consumer to exploitative competition for one resource using a simple 2-resource model. It compares the sizes of ecologically and evolutionarily caused changes in population densities in cases where the original consumer has a strong or a weak trade-off in its abilities to consume the two resources. The analysis also compares the responses of the original species to competition when the competitor's population size is or is not limited by the shared resource. Although divergence in resource use traits in the resident generalist consumer is expected under all scenarios when resources are substitutable, the changes in population densities of the resources and resident consumer frequently differ between scenarios. The population of the original consumer often decreases as a result of its own adaptive divergence, and this decrease is often much greater than the initial ecological decrease. If the evolving consumer has a strong trade-off, the overlapped resource increases in equilibrium population density in response to being consumed by a generalist competitor. Some of these predictions differ qualitatively in alternative scenarios involving sustained variation in population densities or nutritionally essential resources. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Lipoprotein-Cholesterol Fractions in Marginalized Roma versus Majority Population.

PubMed

Hubková, Beáta; Bódy, Gabriel; Mašlanková, Jana; Birková, Anna; Frišman, Eugen; Kraus, Vladimír; Mareková, Mária

2018-01-06

The trend of modern clinical biochemistry is to emphasize the composition and the quality of lipoproteins over their quantity. The serum lipoprotein fractions and subfractions were analyzed by the Lipoprint Lipoprotein Subfractions Testing System, the parameters of lipid profile, as total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) and triacylglycerides (TAG) were determined by an automated selective biochemical analyzer. Our results showed a significantly lower concentration of cholesterol in the LDL fractions 1 and 2 and in the HDL fractions 8 to 10 in Roma compared to the majority population. The most significant differences between Roma and the majority population when considering body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio and the index of central obesity were in very low-density lipoproteins (VLDL), intermediate-density lipoproteins, fraction A (IDL-A) and LDL-2. The last two listed were significantly higher in the majority population. VLDL was significantly higher in overweight or obese Roma men and in Roma men with central obesity compared to men from the majority population, as well as in Roma women with normal weight and physiological waist-to-hip ratio compared to the women from majority population. Our study is among the first describing the distribution of lipoprotein subfractions in different ethnic groups.

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

PubMed Central

Landguth, Erin L.; Bull, C. Michael; Banks, Sam C.; Gardner, Michael G.; Driscoll, Don A.

2016-01-01

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus. We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity in N. stellatus. Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics. PMID:27009225

The impact of roads on the demography of grizzly bears in Alberta.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species.

The Impact of Roads on the Demography of Grizzly Bears in Alberta

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species. PMID:25532035

Population cycles: generalities, exceptions and remaining mysteries

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Population cycles are one of nature's great mysteries. For almost a hundred years, innumerable studies have probed the causes of cyclic dynamics in snowshoe hares, voles and lemmings, forest Lepidoptera and grouse. Even though cyclic species have very different life histories, similarities in mechanisms related to their dynamics are apparent. In addition to high reproductive rates and density-related mortality from predators, pathogens or parasitoids, other characteristics include transgenerational reduced reproduction and dispersal with increasing-peak densities, and genetic similarity among populations. Experiments to stop cyclic dynamics and comparisons of cyclic and noncyclic populations provide some understanding but both reproduction and mortality must be considered. What determines variation in amplitude and periodicity of population outbreaks remains a mystery. PMID:29563267

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Hooten, Mevin B; Drake, John M; Russell, Robin E; Walsh, Daniel P

2016-11-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

Naturalization of plant populations: the role of cultivation and population size and density.

PubMed

Minton, Mark S; Mack, Richard N

2010-10-01

Field experimentation is required to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on small immigrant plant populations-a widely understood but largely unexplored aspect of predicting any species' likelihood of naturalization and potential invasion. Cultivation can mitigate this stochasticity, although the outcome for a population under cultivation nevertheless varies enormously from extinction to persistence. Using factorial experiments, we investigated the effects of population size, density, and cultivation (irrigation) on the fate of founder populations for four alien species with different life history characteristics (Echinochloa frumentacea, Fagopyrum esculentum, Helianthus annuus, and Trifolium incarnatum) in eastern Washington, USA. The fate of founder populations was highly variable within and among the 3 years of experimentation and illustrates the often precarious environment encountered by plant immigrants. Larger founder populations produced more seeds (P < 0.001); the role of founder population size, however, differed among years. Irrigation resulted in higher percent survival (P < 0.001) and correspondingly larger net reproductive rate (R(0); P < 0.001). But the minimum level of irrigation for establishment, R(0) > 1, differed among years and species. Sowing density did not affect the likelihood of establishment for any species. Our results underscore the importance of environmental stochasticity in determining the fate of founder populations and the potential of cultivation and large population size in countering the long odds against naturalization. Any implementation of often proposed post-immigration field trials to assess the risk of an alien species becoming naturalized, a requisite step toward invasion, will need to assess different sizes of founder populations and the extent and character of cultivation (intentional or unintentional) that the immigrants might receive.

Population structure of giraffes is affected by management in the Great Rift Valley, Kenya

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Giraffe populations in East Africa have declined in the past thirty years yet there has been limited research on this species. This study had four objectives: i) to provide a baseline population assessment for the two largest populations of Rothschild’s giraffes in Kenya, ii) to assess whether there are differences in population structure between the two enclosed populations, iii) to assess the potential and possible implications of different management practices on enclosed giraffe populations to inform future decision-making, and iv) to add to the availability of information available about giraffes in the wild. I used individual identification to assess the size and structure of the two populations; in Soysambu Conservancy between May 2010 and January 2011, I identified 77 giraffes; in Lake Nakuru National Park between May 2011 and January 2012, I identified 89. Population structure differed significantly between the two sites; Soysambu Conservancy contained a high percentage of juveniles (34%) and subadults (29%) compared to Lake Nakuru NP, which contained fewer juveniles (5%) and subadults (15%). During the time of this study Soysambu Conservancy contained no lions while Lake Nakuru NP contained a high density of lions (30 lions per 100km2). Lions are the main predator of giraffes, and preferential predation on juvenile giraffes has previously been identified in Lake Nakuru NP. My results suggest that high lion density in Lake Nakuru NP may have influenced the structure of the giraffe population by removing juveniles and, consequently, may affect future population growth. I suggest that wildlife managers consider lion densities alongside breeding plans for Endangered species, since the presence of lions appears to influence the population structure of giraffes in enclosed habitats. PMID:29298338

Population structure of giraffes is affected by management in the Great Rift Valley, Kenya.

PubMed

Muller, Zoe

2018-01-01

Giraffe populations in East Africa have declined in the past thirty years yet there has been limited research on this species. This study had four objectives: i) to provide a baseline population assessment for the two largest populations of Rothschild's giraffes in Kenya, ii) to assess whether there are differences in population structure between the two enclosed populations, iii) to assess the potential and possible implications of different management practices on enclosed giraffe populations to inform future decision-making, and iv) to add to the availability of information available about giraffes in the wild. I used individual identification to assess the size and structure of the two populations; in Soysambu Conservancy between May 2010 and January 2011, I identified 77 giraffes; in Lake Nakuru National Park between May 2011 and January 2012, I identified 89. Population structure differed significantly between the two sites; Soysambu Conservancy contained a high percentage of juveniles (34%) and subadults (29%) compared to Lake Nakuru NP, which contained fewer juveniles (5%) and subadults (15%). During the time of this study Soysambu Conservancy contained no lions while Lake Nakuru NP contained a high density of lions (30 lions per 100km2). Lions are the main predator of giraffes, and preferential predation on juvenile giraffes has previously been identified in Lake Nakuru NP. My results suggest that high lion density in Lake Nakuru NP may have influenced the structure of the giraffe population by removing juveniles and, consequently, may affect future population growth. I suggest that wildlife managers consider lion densities alongside breeding plans for Endangered species, since the presence of lions appears to influence the population structure of giraffes in enclosed habitats.

Negative density-dependent dispersal in the American black bear (Ursus americanus) revealed by noninvasive sampling and genotyping

PubMed Central

Roy, Justin; Yannic, Glenn; Côté, Steeve D; Bernatchez, Louis

2012-01-01

Although the dispersal of animals is influenced by a variety of factors, few studies have used a condition-dependent approach to assess it. The mechanisms underlying dispersal are thus poorly known in many species, especially in large mammals. We used 10 microsatellite loci to examine population density effects on sex-specific dispersal behavior in the American black bear, Ursus americanus. We tested whether dispersal increases with population density in both sexes. Fine-scale genetic structure was investigated in each of four sampling areas using Mantel tests and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Our results revealed male-biased dispersal pattern in low-density areas. As population density increased, females appeared to exhibit philopatry at smaller scales. Fine-scale genetic structure for males at higher densities may indicate reduced dispersal distances and delayed dispersal by subadults. PMID:22822432

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

A Global Picture of the Gamma-Ricker Map: A Flexible Discrete-Time Model with Factors of Positive and Negative Density Dependence.

PubMed

Liz, Eduardo

2018-02-01

The gamma-Ricker model is one of the more flexible and general discrete-time population models. It is defined on the basis of the Ricker model, introducing an additional parameter [Formula: see text]. For some values of this parameter ([Formula: see text], population is overcompensatory, and the introduction of an additional parameter gives more flexibility to fit the stock-recruitment curve to field data. For other parameter values ([Formula: see text]), the gamma-Ricker model represents populations whose per-capita growth rate combines both negative density dependence and positive density dependence. The former can lead to overcompensation and dynamic instability, and the latter can lead to a strong Allee effect. We study the impact of the cooperation factor in the dynamics and provide rigorous conditions under which increasing the Allee effect strength stabilizes or destabilizes population dynamics, promotes or prevents population extinction, and increases or decreases population size. Our theoretical results also include new global stability criteria and a description of the possible bifurcations.

Indicators of fishing mortality on reef-shark populations in the world's first shark sanctuary: the need for surveillance and enforcement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vianna, Gabriel M. S.; Meekan, Mark G.; Ruppert, Jonathan L. W.; Bornovski, Tova H.; Meeuwig, Jessica J.

2016-09-01

Shark sanctuaries are promoted as a management tool to achieve conservation goals following global declines of shark populations. We assessed the status of reef-shark populations and indicators of fishing pressure across the world's first shark sanctuary in Palau. Using underwater surveys and stereophotogrammetry, we documented large differences in abundance and size structure of shark populations across the sanctuary, with a strong negative relationship between shark densities and derelict fishing gear on reefs. Densities of 10.9 ± 4.7 (mean ± SE) sharks ha-1 occurred on reefs adjacent to the most populated islands of Palau, contrasting with lower densities of 1.6 ± 0.8 sharks ha-1 on remote uninhabited reefs, where surveillance and enforcement was limited. Our observations suggest that fishing still remains a major factor structuring shark populations in Palau, demonstrating that there is an urgent need for better enforcement and surveillance that targets both illegal and licensed commercial fisheries to provide effective protection for sharks within the sanctuary.

Understanding spatial connectivity of individuals with non-uniform population density.

PubMed

Wang, Pu; González, Marta C

2009-08-28

We construct a two-dimensional geometric graph connecting individuals placed in space within a given contact distance. The individuals are distributed using a measured country's density of population. We observe that while large clusters (group of individuals connected) emerge within some regions, they are trapped in detached urban areas owing to the low population density of the regions bordering them. To understand the emergence of a giant cluster that connects the entire population, we compare the empirical geometric graph with the one generated by placing the same number of individuals randomly in space. We find that, for small contact distances, the empirical distribution of population dominates the growth of connected components, but no critical percolation transition is observed in contrast to the graph generated by a random distribution of population. Our results show that contact distances from real-world situations as for WIFI and Bluetooth connections drop in a zone where a fully connected cluster is not observed, hinting that human mobility must play a crucial role in contact-based diseases and wireless viruses' large-scale spreading.

Impact of food supplementation and methionine on high densities of cotton rats: Support of the amino-acid-quality hypothesis?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, R.E.; Leslie, David M.; Lochmiller, R.L.; Masters, R.E.

2005-01-01

Considerable research supports the tenet that quantity and quality of food limit vertebrate populations. We evaluated predictions that increased availabilities of food and the essential amino acid methionine were related to population limitation of the hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus). Effects of supplemental food and methionine on density, survival, and reproductive parameters of wild cotton rats were assessed in north-central Oklahoma in 1998-1999. Twelve enclosed groups of 16 adult cotton rats each (8 male, 8 female) were randomly assigned to either no supplementation (control), supplementation with a mixed ration that had methionine at slightly below maintenance levels (0.20%), or a methionine-enhanced mixed ration (1.20%). In general, densities of cotton rats were twice as high and were sustained longer with dietary supplementation, and methionine-supplemented populations maintained the highest densities. Treatment effects on survival depended on time of year, with higher survival in supplemented enclosures in October and November. Per capita recruitment was highest with methionine-enhanced food. Treatment effects on proportions of overall and female cotton rats in reproductive condition depended on sampling date, but males were most reproductively active with methionine supplementation. Methionine supplementation resulted in an earlier and longer reproductive season. Density-dependent and density-independent factors no doubt interplay to determine population dynamics of cotton rats, but our results suggest that methionine plays a role in the population dynamics of wild cotton rats, apparently by enhancing overall density, recruitment, and reproductive activity of males.

ECOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS, WEST NILE VIRUS, AND AVIAN PARAMYXOVIRUS INFECTION AND ANTIBODY STATUS IN BLUE-WINGED TEAL (ANAS DISCORS) IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

PubMed

Nallar, Rodolfo; Papp, Zsuzsanna; Leighton, Frederick A; Epp, Tasha; Pasick, John; Berhane, Yohannes; Lindsay, Robbin; Soos, Catherine

2016-01-01

The Canadian prairies are one of the most important breeding and staging areas for migratory waterfowl in North America. Hundreds of thousands of waterfowl of numerous species from multiple flyways converge in and disperse from this region annually; therefore this region may be a key area for potential intra- and interspecific spread of infectious pathogens among migratory waterfowl in the Americas. Using Blue-winged Teal (Anas discors, BWTE), which have the most extensive migratory range among waterfowl species, we investigated ecologic risk factors for infection and antibody status to avian influenza virus (AIV), West Nile virus (WNV), and avian paramyxovirus-1 (APMV-1) in the three prairie provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) prior to fall migration. We used generalized linear models to examine infection or evidence of exposure in relation to host (age, sex, body condition, exposure to other infections), spatiotemporal (year, province), population-level (local population densities of BWTE, total waterfowl densities), and environmental (local pond densities) factors. The probability of AIV infection in BWTE was associated with host factors (e.g., age and antibody status), population-level factors (e.g., local BWTE population density), and year. An interaction between age and AIV antibody status showed that hatch year birds with antibodies to AIV were more likely to be infected, suggesting an antibody response to an active infection. Infection with AIV was positively associated with local BWTE density, supporting the hypothesis of density-dependent transmission. The presence of antibodies to WNV and APMV-1 was positively associated with age and varied among years. Furthermore, the probability of being WNV antibody positive was positively associated with pond density rather than host population density, likely because ponds provide suitable breeding habitat for mosquitoes, the primary vectors for transmission. Our findings highlight the importance of spatiotemporal, environmental, and host factors at the individual and population levels, all of which may influence dynamics of these and other viruses in wild waterfowl populations.

75 FR 19592 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a Petition to List the Wyoming...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-15

... size of individual pocket gophers and density of pocket gopher populations (Patton and Brylski 1987, p...-100). Pocket gopher population density is likely to be primarily regulated through intraspecific... the density of wells within that range (Keinath 2009, pp. 12-13). This potential risk is based on...

Effects of scale of movement, detection probability, and true population density on common methods of estimating population density

DOE PAGES

Keiter, David A.; Davis, Amy J.; Rhodes, Olin E.; ...

2017-08-25

Knowledge of population density is necessary for effective management and conservation of wildlife, yet rarely are estimators compared in their robustness to effects of ecological and observational processes, which can greatly influence accuracy and precision of density estimates. For this study, we simulate biological and observational processes using empirical data to assess effects of animal scale of movement, true population density, and probability of detection on common density estimators. We also apply common data collection and analytical techniques in the field and evaluate their ability to estimate density of a globally widespread species. We find that animal scale of movementmore » had the greatest impact on accuracy of estimators, although all estimators suffered reduced performance when detection probability was low, and we provide recommendations as to when each field and analytical technique is most appropriately employed. The large influence of scale of movement on estimator accuracy emphasizes the importance of effective post-hoc calculation of area sampled or use of methods that implicitly account for spatial variation. In particular, scale of movement impacted estimators substantially, such that area covered and spacing of detectors (e.g. cameras, traps, etc.) must reflect movement characteristics of the focal species to reduce bias in estimates of movement and thus density.« less

Effects of scale of movement, detection probability, and true population density on common methods of estimating population density

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keiter, David A.; Davis, Amy J.; Rhodes, Olin E.

Knowledge of population density is necessary for effective management and conservation of wildlife, yet rarely are estimators compared in their robustness to effects of ecological and observational processes, which can greatly influence accuracy and precision of density estimates. For this study, we simulate biological and observational processes using empirical data to assess effects of animal scale of movement, true population density, and probability of detection on common density estimators. We also apply common data collection and analytical techniques in the field and evaluate their ability to estimate density of a globally widespread species. We find that animal scale of movementmore » had the greatest impact on accuracy of estimators, although all estimators suffered reduced performance when detection probability was low, and we provide recommendations as to when each field and analytical technique is most appropriately employed. The large influence of scale of movement on estimator accuracy emphasizes the importance of effective post-hoc calculation of area sampled or use of methods that implicitly account for spatial variation. In particular, scale of movement impacted estimators substantially, such that area covered and spacing of detectors (e.g. cameras, traps, etc.) must reflect movement characteristics of the focal species to reduce bias in estimates of movement and thus density.« less

Population size and density of Colobus vellerosus at the Boabeng-Fiema Monkey Sanctuary and surrounding forest fragments in Ghana.

PubMed

Wong, Sarah N P; Sicotte, Pascale

2006-05-01

The Boabeng-Fiema Monkey Sanctuary (BFMS) is inhabited by a growing population of Ursine colobus (Colobus vellerosus), a species that is listed as vulnerable. Smaller, degraded forest fragments that surround the BFMS also contain C. vellerosus and may provide an important habitat for the monkeys. Our objectives were to 1) determine the current population size and density of C. vellerosus at BFMS and in five surrounding fragments, 2) examine the differences in demographics between the fragments and BFMS, and 3) determine whether a relationship exists between population density and fragment size and isolation distance from BFMS. The census was a complete count and was conducted for 1 month (July 2003) by S.W. and trained research assistants. Seven census routes were walked simultaneously on 13 days. The 2003 population estimate of C. vellerosus at BFMS was 217-241 individuals (15 groups), a slight increase from the 2000 census. Numbers in the fragments (58-62, six groups) have remained stable since 1997, when the only other census of these fragments was conducted. Mean group size did not differ between the fragments and BFMS. Larger fragments had larger numbers of colobus, but there was no relationship between fragment size and colobus density. Isolation distance had no effect on population density. Our data suggest that colobus probably travel between fragments. Conservation efforts should focus on treating the small forests and their connecting areas as a single conservation unit. 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Productivity and population density estimates of the dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti (Stegomyia aegypti) in Australia.

PubMed

Williams, C R; Johnson, P H; Ball, T S; Ritchie, S A

2013-09-01

New mosquito control strategies centred on the modifying of populations require knowledge of existing population densities at release sites and an understanding of breeding site ecology. Using a quantitative pupal survey method, we investigated production of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti (L.) (Stegomyia aegypti) (Diptera: Culicidae) in Cairns, Queensland, Australia, and found that garden accoutrements represented the most common container type. Deliberately placed 'sentinel' containers were set at seven houses and sampled for pupae over 10 weeks during the wet season. Pupal production was approximately constant; tyres and buckets represented the most productive container types. Sentinel tyres produced the largest female mosquitoes, but were relatively rare in the field survey. We then used field-collected data to make estimates of per premises population density using three different approaches. Estimates of female Ae. aegypti abundance per premises made using the container-inhabiting mosquito simulation (CIMSiM) model [95% confidence interval (CI) 18.5-29.1 females] concorded reasonably well with estimates obtained using a standing crop calculation based on pupal collections (95% CI 8.8-22.5) and using BG-Sentinel traps and a sampling rate correction factor (95% CI 6.2-35.2). By first describing local Ae. aegypti productivity, we were able to compare three separate population density estimates which provided similar results. We anticipate that this will provide researchers and health officials with several tools with which to make estimates of population densities. © 2012 The Royal Entomological Society.

The dynamics of zooxanthellae populations: A long-term study in the field

PubMed

Fagoonee; Wilson; Hassell; Turner

1999-02-05

Coral bleaching characterized by the expulsion of symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) is an increasing problem worldwide. Global warming has been implicated as one cause, but the phenomenon cannot be fully comprehended without an understanding of the variability of zooxanthellae populations in field conditions. Results from a 6-year field study are presented, providing evidence of density regulation but also of large variability in the zooxanthellae population with regular episodes of very low densities. These bleaching events are likely to be part of a constant variability in zooxanthellae density caused by environmental fluctuations superimposed on a strong seasonal cycle in abundance.

Study of low density air transportation concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, H. M.

1972-01-01

Low density air transport refers to air service to sparsely populated regions. There are two major objectives. The first is to examine those characteristics of sparsely populated areas which pertain to air transportation. This involves determination of geographical, commercial and population trends, as well as those traveler characteristics which affect the viability of air transport in the region. The second objective is to analyze the technical, economic and operational characteristics of low density air service. Two representative, but diverse arenas, West Virginia and Arizona, were selected for analysis: The results indicate that Arizona can support air service under certain assumptions whereas West Virginia cannot.

Spatial distribution of U.S. household carbon footprints reveals suburbanization undermines greenhouse gas benefits of urban population density.

PubMed

Jones, Christopher; Kammen, Daniel M

2014-01-21

Which municipalities and locations within the United States contribute the most to household greenhouse gas emissions, and what is the effect of population density and suburbanization on emissions? Using national household surveys, we developed econometric models of demand for energy, transportation, food, goods, and services that were used to derive average household carbon footprints (HCF) for U.S. zip codes, cities, counties, and metropolitan areas. We find consistently lower HCF in urban core cities (∼ 40 tCO2e) and higher carbon footprints in outlying suburbs (∼ 50 tCO2e), with a range from ∼ 25 to >80 tCO2e in the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Population density exhibits a weak but positive correlation with HCF until a density threshold is met, after which range, mean, and standard deviation of HCF decline. While population density contributes to relatively low HCF in the central cities of large metropolitan areas, the more extensive suburbanization in these regions contributes to an overall net increase in HCF compared to smaller metropolitan areas. Suburbs alone account for ∼ 50% of total U.S. HCF. Differences in the size, composition, and location of household carbon footprints suggest the need for tailoring of greenhouse gas mitigation efforts to different populations.

Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles.

PubMed

Voutilainen, Liina; Kallio, Eva R; Niemimaa, Jukka; Vapalahti, Olli; Henttonen, Heikki

2016-02-18

Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seasonal pattern reflecting the annual population turnover and accumulation of infections within each year cohort. In autumn, the PUUV transmission rate tracked increasing host abundance, suggesting a density-dependent transmission. However, prevalence of PUUV infection was similar during the increase and peak years of the density cycle despite a twofold difference in host density. This may result from the high proportion of individuals carrying maternal antibodies constraining transmission during the cycle peak years. Our exceptionally intensive and long-term dataset provides a solid basis on which to develop models to predict the dynamic public health threat posed by PUUV in northern Europe.

Place and Child Health: The Interaction of Population Density and Sanitation in Developing Countries.

PubMed

Hathi, Payal; Haque, Sabrina; Pant, Lovey; Coffey, Diane; Spears, Dean

2017-02-01

A long literature in demography has debated the importance of place for health, especially children's health. In this study, we assess whether the importance of dense settlement for infant mortality and child height is moderated by exposure to local sanitation behavior. Is open defecation (i.e., without a toilet or latrine) worse for infant mortality and child height where population density is greater? Is poor sanitation is an important mechanism by which population density influences child health outcomes? We present two complementary analyses using newly assembled data sets, which represent two points in a trade-off between external and internal validity. First, we concentrate on external validity by studying infant mortality and child height in a large, international child-level data set of 172 Demographic and Health Surveys, matched to census population density data for 1,800 subnational regions. Second, we concentrate on internal validity by studying child height in Bangladeshi districts, using a new data set constructed with GIS techniques that allows us to control for fixed effects at a high level of geographic resolution. We find a statistically robust and quantitatively comparable interaction between sanitation and population density with both approaches: open defecation externalities are more important for child health outcomes where people live more closely together.

Effect of population density on reproduction in Microtus fortis under laboratory conditions.

PubMed

Han, Qunhua; Zhang, Meiwen; Guo, Cong; Shen, Guo; Wang, Yong; Li, Bo; Xu, Zhenggang

2014-06-01

Between December 2011 and March 2012, the reproductive characteristics of Microtus fortis reared in the laboratory at different population densities were assessed. In all, 258 male and female voles were randomly divided into 4 groups and reared at densities of 2, 4, 6, and 8 animals per cage (sex ratio: 1:1). The results showed that the pregnancy rate (χ2 = 21.671, df = 3, P < 0.001) and first farrowing interval (F = 12.355, df = 3, P < 0.001) were significantly different among the different population density groups, but the mean litter size (mean ± SD) was not (F = 2.669, df = 3, P > 0.05). In particular, the reproductive index and sex hormone levels showed a significant difference among the different density groups studied.

Effects of temporal fluctuation in population processes of intertidal Lanice conchilega (Pallas, 1766) aggregations on its ecosystem engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, Renata M. S.; Vanaverbeke, Jan; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Guarini, Jean-Marc; Vincx, Magda; Van Colen, Carl

2017-03-01

Ecosystem engineers contribute to ecosystem functioning by regulating key environmental attributes, such as habitat availability and sediment biogeochemistry. While autogenic engineers can increase habitat complexity passively and provide physical protection to other species, allogenic engineers can regulate sediment oxygenation and biogeochemistry through bioturbation and/or bioirrigation. Their effects rely on the physical attributes of the engineer and/or its biogenic constructs, such as abundance and/or size. The present study focused on tube aggregations of a sessile, tube-building polychaete that engineers marine sediments, Lanice conchilega. Its tube aggregations modulate water flow by dissipating energy, influencing sedimentary processes and increasing particle retention. These effects can be influenced by temporal fluctuations in population demographic processes. Presently, we investigated the relationship between population processes and ecosystem engineering through an in-situ survey (1.5 years) of L. conchilega aggregations at the sandy beach of Boulogne-sur-Mer (France). We (1) evaluated temporal patterns in population structure, and (2) investigated how these are related to the ecosystem engineering of L. conchilega on marine sediments. During our survey, we assessed tube density, demographic structure, and sediment properties (surficial chl-a, EPS, TOM, median and mode grain size, sorting, and mud and water content) on a monthly basis for 12 intertidal aggregations. We found that the population was mainly composed by short-lived (6-10 months), small-medium individuals. Mass mortality severely reduced population density during winter. However the population persisted, likely due to recruits from other populations, which are associated to short- and long-term population dynamics. Two periods of recruitment were identified: spring/summer and autumn. Population density was highest during the spring recruitment and significantly affected several environmental properties (i.e. EPS, TOM, mode grain size, mud and water content), suggesting that demographic processes may be responsible for periods of pronounced ecosystem engineering with densities of approx. 30 000 ind·m-2.

Comparison of Drive Counts and Mark-Resight As Methods of Population Size Estimation of Highly Dense Sika Deer (Cervus nippon) Populations.

PubMed

Takeshita, Kazutaka; Ikeda, Takashi; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Yoshida, Tsuyoshi; Igota, Hiromasa; Matsuura, Yukiko; Kaji, Koichi

2016-01-01

Assessing temporal changes in abundance indices is an important issue in the management of large herbivore populations. The drive counts method has been frequently used as a deer abundance index in mountainous regions. However, despite an inherent risk for observation errors in drive counts, which increase with deer density, evaluations of the utility of drive counts at a high deer density remain scarce. We compared the drive counts and mark-resight (MR) methods in the evaluation of a highly dense sika deer population (MR estimates ranged between 11 and 53 individuals/km2) on Nakanoshima Island, Hokkaido, Japan, between 1999 and 2006. This deer population experienced two large reductions in density; approximately 200 animals in total were taken from the population through a large-scale population removal and a separate winter mass mortality event. Although the drive counts tracked temporal changes in deer abundance on the island, they overestimated the counts for all years in comparison to the MR method. Increased overestimation in drive count estimates after the winter mass mortality event may be due to a double count derived from increased deer movement and recovery of body condition secondary to the mitigation of density-dependent food limitations. Drive counts are unreliable because they are affected by unfavorable factors such as bad weather, and they are cost-prohibitive to repeat, which precludes the calculation of confidence intervals. Therefore, the use of drive counts to infer the deer abundance needs to be reconsidered.

How can we model selectively neutral density dependence in evolutionary games.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof; Kozłowski, Jan

2008-03-01

The problem of density dependence appears in all approaches to the modelling of population dynamics. It is pertinent to classic models (i.e., Lotka-Volterra's), and also population genetics and game theoretical models related to the replicator dynamics. There is no density dependence in the classic formulation of replicator dynamics, which means that population size may grow to infinity. Therefore the question arises: How is unlimited population growth suppressed in frequency-dependent models? Two categories of solutions can be found in the literature. In the first, replicator dynamics is independent of background fitness. In the second type of solution, a multiplicative suppression coefficient is used, as in a logistic equation. Both approaches have disadvantages. The first one is incompatible with the methods of life history theory and basic probabilistic intuitions. The logistic type of suppression of per capita growth rate stops trajectories of selection when population size reaches the maximal value (carrying capacity); hence this method does not satisfy selective neutrality. To overcome these difficulties, we must explicitly consider turn-over of individuals dependent on mortality rate. This new approach leads to two interesting predictions. First, the equilibrium value of population size is lower than carrying capacity and depends on the mortality rate. Second, although the phase portrait of selection trajectories is the same as in density-independent replicator dynamics, pace of selection slows down when population size approaches equilibrium, and then remains constant and dependent on the rate of turn-over of individuals.

Living on the edge: Space use of Eurasian red squirrels in marginal high-elevation habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romeo, Claudia; Wauters, Lucas A.; Preatoni, Damiano; Tosi, Guido; Martinoli, Adriano

2010-11-01

In marginal habitats located at the edge of a species' range, environmental conditions are frequently extreme and individuals may be subject to different selective pressures compared to central populations. These so-called edge or marginal populations tend to have lower densities and reproductive rates than populations located in more suitable habitats, but little is known about local adaptations in spacing behavior. We studied space use and social organization in a population of Eurasian red squirrels ( Sciurus vulgaris) in a high-elevation marginal habitat of dwarf mountain pine ( Pinus mugo) and compared it with spacing patterns in high-quality Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris) forest at lower-elevation. Home ranges and core areas were larger in the marginal habitat. In both habitats, males used larger home ranges than females, but sex differences in core area size were significant only in the edge population. Patterns of core area overlap were similar in both habitats with intra-sexual territoriality among adult females and higher degrees of inter-sexual overlap, typical for the species throughout its range. However, low densities in the edge population resulted in higher female by males overlap in spring-summer, suggesting males increased home ranges and core areas during mating season to augment access to estrus females. Thus, in the marginal habitat, with low food abundance and low population densities, linked with extreme winter conditions, squirrels, especially males, used large home ranges. Finally, squirrels responded more strongly to variation in food availability (inverse relation between home range size and seed abundance), and even to fluctuations in density (inverse relation between core area size and density of animals of the same sex), in the marginal than in the high-quality habitat, suggesting high behavioral plasticity to respond to the ecological constraints in marginal habitats.

Density effect on great tit (Parus major) clutch size intensifies in a polluted environment.

PubMed

Eeva, Tapio; Lehikoinen, Esa

2013-12-01

Long-term data on a great tit (Parus major) population breeding in a metal-polluted zone around a copper-nickel smelter indicate that, against expectations, the clutch size of this species is decreasing even though metal emissions in the area have decreased considerably over the past two decades. Here, we document long-term population-level changes in the clutch size of P. major and explore if changes in population density, population numbers of competing species, timing of breeding, breeding habitat, or female age distribution can explain decreasing clutch sizes. Clutch size of P. major decreased by one egg in the polluted zone during the past 21 years, while there was no significant change in clutch size in the unpolluted reference zone over this time period. Density of P. major nests was similar in both environments but increased threefold during the study period in both areas (from 0.8 to 2.4 nest/ha). In the polluted zone, clutch size has decreased as a response to a considerable increase in population density, while a corresponding density change in the unpolluted zone did not have such an effect. The other factors studied did not explain the clutch size trend. Fledgling numbers in the polluted environment have been relatively low since the beginning of the study period, and they do not show a corresponding decrease to that noted for the clutch size over the same time period. Our study shows that responses of commonly measured life-history parameters to anthropogenic pollution depend on the structure of the breeding population. Interactions between pollution and intrinsic population characters should therefore be taken into account in environmental studies.

Population Dynamics of an Insect Herbivore over 32 Years are Driven by Precipitation and Host-Plant Effects: Testing Model Predictions.

PubMed

Price, Peter W; Hunter, Mark D

2015-06-01

The interaction between the arroyo willow, Salix lasiolepis Bentham, and its specialist herbivore, the arroyo willow stem-galling sawfly, Euura lasiolepis Smith (Hymenoptera: Tenthredinidae), was studied for 32 yr in Flagstaff, AZ, emphasizing a mechanistic understanding of insect population dynamics. Long-term weather records were evaluated to provide a climatic context for this study. Previously, predictive models of sawfly dynamics were developed from estimates of sawfly gall density made between 1981 and 2002; one model each for drier and wetter sites. Predictor variables in these models included winter precipitation and the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which impact the willow growth, with strong bottom-up effects on sawflies. We now evaluate original model predictions of sawfly population dynamics using new data (from 2003-2012). Additionally, willow resources were evaluated in 1986 and in 2012, using as criteria clone area, shoot density, and shoot length. The dry site model accounted for 40% of gall population density variation between 2003 and 2012 (69% over the 32 yr), providing strong support for the bottom-up, mechanistic hypothesis that water supply to willow hosts impacts sawfly populations. The current drying trend stressed willow clones: in drier sites, willow resources declined and gall density decreased by 98%. The wet site model accounted for 23% of variation in gall population density between 2003 and 2012 (48% over 30 yr), consistent with less water limitation. Nonetheless, gall populations were reduced by 72%. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Beak condition and cage density determine abundance and spatial distribution of northern fowl mites, Ornithonyssus sylviarum, and chicken body lice, Menacanthus stramineus, on caged laying hens.

PubMed

Mullens, B A; Chen, B L; Owen, J P

2010-12-01

Adult White Leghorn hens (Hy-Line strain W-36) were inoculated with either northern fowl mites or chicken body lice, and the ectoparasite populations were monitored over periods of 9 to 16 wk. Two beak conditions (beak trimmed or beak intact) and 2 housing densities (1 or 2 hens per 25 × 31 cm suspended wire cage) were tested. Populations of both ectoparasites were at least 10 times lower on beak-intact hens compared with populations on beak-trimmed hens. Cage density did not influence mite numbers, but higher numbers of lice (2 to 3 times) developed on hens held at the higher cage density. Louse distribution on the body and louse population age structure were also influenced by host beak condition. Beak-intact hens had a higher proportion of lice under the wings, whereas beak-trimmed hens had the majority of lice on the lower abdomen. Louse populations on beak-trimmed hens also comprised relatively more immature stages than populations found on beak-intact hens. The effects are likely related to decreased grooming efficiency by beak-trimmed hens and, in the case of lice, the higher host density. The high mite and louse populations on most commercial caged laying hens are probably a direct result of beak trimming. However, selection of more docile breeds that can be held without trimming may allow the hens themselves to reduce ectoparasites below economically damaging levels. This could benefit producers, animal welfare advocates, and human health by reducing 1) costs of beak trimming, 2) pesticide treatment costs (including human and bird chemical exposure concerns), and 3) objections to beak trimming from the animal welfare community.

[Latin America: reasons for hope].

PubMed

Orrego, F

1993-08-01

According to official figures, Latin America is almost an empty continent. The low population density, the decrease in population growth, the low use of the land and the improvement in the availability of food, health and education indexes, point to the fact that restrictive politics in population growth are not of interest to this region. On the contrary, an increase in population density is important in the development of this new civilization. In order to avoid the defects found in some industrialized countries, the anthropocetrism has to be linked to reality which is transcendent and has God as his foundation.

Sink populations in carnivore management: cougar demography and immigration in a hunted population.

PubMed

Robinson, Hugh S; Wielgus, Robert B; Cooley, Hilary S; Cooley, Skye W

2008-06-01

Carnivores are widely hunted for both sport and population control, especially where they conflict with human interests. It is widely believed that sport hunting is effective in reducing carnivore populations and related human-carnivore conflicts, while maintaining viable populations. However, the way in which carnivore populations respond to harvest can vary greatly depending on their social structure, reproductive strategies, and dispersal patterns. For example, hunted cougar (Puma concolor) populations have shown a great degree of resiliency. Although hunting cougars on a broad geographic scale (> 2000 km2) has reduced densities, hunting of smaller areas (i.e., game management units, < 1000 km2), could conceivably fail because of increased immigration from adjacent source areas. We monitored a heavily hunted population from 2001 to 2006 to test for the effects of hunting at a small scale (< 1000 km2) and to gauge whether population control was achieved (lambda < or = 1.0) or if hunting losses were negated by increased immigration allowing the population to remain stable or increase (lambda > or = 1.0). The observed growth rate of 1.00 was significantly higher than our predicted survival/fecundity growth rates (using a Leslie matrix) of 0.89 (deterministic) and 0.84 (stochastic), with the difference representing an 11-16% annual immigration rate. We observed no decline in density of the total population or the adult population, but a significant decrease in the average age of independent males. We found that the male component of the population was increasing (observed male population growth rate, lambda(OM) = 1.09), masking a decrease in the female component (lambda(OF) = 0.91). Our data support the compensatory immigration sink hypothesis; cougar removal in small game management areas (< 1000 km2) increased immigration and recruitment of younger animals from adjacent areas, resulting in little or no reduction in local cougar densities and a shift in population structure toward younger animals. Hunting in high-quality habitats may create an attractive sink, leading to misinterpretation of population trends and masking population declines in the sink and surrounding source areas.

Multiple density dependence in two sub-populations of the amphipod Monoporeia affinis: a potential for alternative equilibria.

PubMed

Leonardsson, Kjell

1994-02-01

Possible mechanisms for differences in population densities and dynamics were investigated in the amphipod Monoporeia affinis at two deep sites in the northern Bothnian Sea. The two sites were sampled yearly for 10 years. Average sizes, growth and mortality of the different age-classes were estimated from the cohort structure of the two populations. Laboratory experiments also investigated the ability of the common predatory isopod Saduria entomon to cause densitydependent (DD) mortality of the prey M. affinis. At site A, 43 m depth, the average density of M. affinis was twice as high as at site B, 81 m depth. The fluctuations in density were asynchronous between the two sites. Recruitment and subadult sizes of Monoporeia affinis were density dependent at both sites. The main functional difference between the two populations seemed to be the DD mortality of the 1 + cohort that occurred only at the low-density site B. A corresponding DD mortality was found in the predation experiments at densities of 1 + m. affinis corresponding to those found at site B. The potential importance of the predator was also indicated by a significant negative correlation between the biomass of S. entomon and the rate of change in M. affinis density in the field. The similarities in the abiotic factors between the two sites suggested that differences in carrying capacity should be small. The results could be explained by the predation regulation hypothesis for the low-density population at site B, while at site A M. affinis seemed to be regulated by intra-specific competition and limited by predation. It is suggested that in this simple predator-prey system there is potential for the existence of alternative equilibria.

Density Dependence and Growth Rate: Evolutionary Effects on Resistance Development to Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis).

PubMed

Martinez, Jeannette C; Caprio, Michael A; Friedenberg, Nicholas A

2018-02-09

It has long been recognized that pest population dynamics can affect the durability of a pesticide, but dose remains the primary component of insect resistance management (IRM). For transgenic pesticidal traits such as Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bacillales: Bacillaceae)), dose (measured as the mortality of susceptibles caused by a toxin) is a relatively fixed characteristic and often falls below the standard definition of high dose. Hence, it is important to understand how pest population dynamics modify durability and what targets they present for IRM. We used a deterministic model of a generic arthropod pest to examine how timing and strength of density dependence interacted with population growth rate and Bt mortality to affect time to resistance. As in previous studies, durability typically reached a minimum at intermediate doses. However, high population growth rates could eliminate benefits of high dose. The timing of density dependence had a more subtle effect. If density dependence operated simultaneously with Bt mortality, durability was insensitive to its strengths. However, if density dependence was driven by postselection densities, decreasing its strength could increase durability. The strength of density dependence could affect durability of both single traits and pyramids, but its influence depended on the timing of density dependence and size of the refuge. Our findings suggest the utility of a broader definition of high dose, one that incorporates population-dynamic context. That maximum growth rates and timing and strength of interactions causing density dependent mortality can all affect durability, also highlights the need for ecologically integrated approaches to IRM research. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nautilus at Risk – Estimating Population Size and Demography of Nautilus pompilius

PubMed Central

Dunstan, Andrew; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Marshall, Justin

2011-01-01

The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6–77.4 km−2) dominated by males (83∶17 male∶female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide. PMID:21347360

Negative relationships between population density and metabolic rates are not general.

PubMed

Yashchenko, Varvara; Fossen, Erlend Ignacio; Kielland, Øystein Nordeide; Einum, Sigurd

2016-07-01

Population density has recently been suggested to be an important factor influencing metabolic rates and to represent an important 'third axis' explaining variation beyond that explained by body mass and temperature. In situations where population density influences food consumption, the immediate effect on metabolism acting through specific dynamic action (SDA), and downregulation due to fasting over longer periods, is well understood. However, according to a recent review, previous studies suggest a more general effect of population density per se, even in the absence of such effects. It has been hypothesized that this results from animals performing anticipatory responses (i.e. reduced activity) to expected declines in food availability. Here, we test the generality of this finding by measuring density effects on metabolic rates in 10 clones from two different species of the zooplankton Daphnia (Daphnia pulex Leydig and D. magna Straus). Using fluorescence-based respirometry, we obtain high-precision measures of metabolism. We also identify additional studies on this topic that were not included in the previous review, compare the results and evaluate the potential for measurement bias in all previous studies. We demonstrate significant variation in mass-specific metabolism among clones within both species. However, we find no evidence for a negative relationship between population density and mass-specific metabolism. The previously reported pattern also disappeared when we extended the set of studies analysed. We discuss potential reasons for the discrepancy among studies, including two main sources of potential bias (microbial respiration and declining oxygen consumption due to reduced oxygen availability). Only one of the previous studies gives sufficient information to conclude the absence of such biases, and consistent with our results, no effect of density on metabolism was found. We conclude that population density per se does not have a general effect on mass-specific metabolic rate. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Population Dynamics of Belonolaimus longicaudatusin a Cotton Production System

PubMed Central

Crow, W. T.; Weingartner, D. P.; McSorley, R.; Dickson, D. W.

2000-01-01

Belonolaimus longicaudatus is a recognized pathogen of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), but insufficient information is available on the population dynamics and economic thresholds of B. longicaudatus in cotton production. In this study, data collected from a field in Florida were used to develop models predicting population increases of B. longicaudatus on cotton and population declines under clean fallow. Population densities of B. longicaudatus increased on cotton, reaching a carrying capacity of 139 nematodes/130 cm³ of soil, but decreased exponentially during periods of bare fallow. The model indicated that population densities should decrease each year of monocropped cotton, if an alternate host is not present between sequential cotton crops. Economic thresholds derived from published damage functions and current prices for cotton and nematicides varied from 2 to 5 B. longicaudatus/130 cm³ of soil, depending on the nematicide used. PMID:19270968

The UK population: how does it compare?

PubMed

Matheson, Jil

2010-01-01

This is the fourth demographic report for the UK, providing an overview of the latest statistics on the population. This year's article compares the UK with other European countries and a range of nations from around the world. Statistical comparisons are made for fertility, mortality, ageing, migration and population density. The UK has an ageing population, but one that is not ageing as rapidly as some other countries such as Germany, Italy and Japan. Although life expectation in the UK is improving in line with most western European countries, relatively high levels of fertility ensure that the proportion of the population that is young remains high. Around one in ten residents of the UK are foreign born, a lower proportion than many developed countries. UK population density has increased steadily and is the fourth highest in the EU.

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

Modeling the impact of the indigenous microbial population on the maximum population density of Salmonella on alfalfa.

PubMed

Rijgersberg, Hajo; Franz, Eelco; Nierop Groot, Masja; Tromp, Seth-Oscar

2013-07-01

Within a microbial risk assessment framework, modeling the maximum population density (MPD) of a pathogenic microorganism is important but often not considered. This paper describes a model predicting the MPD of Salmonella on alfalfa as a function of the initial contamination level, the total count of the indigenous microbial population, the maximum pathogen growth rate and the maximum population density of the indigenous microbial population. The model is parameterized by experimental data describing growth of Salmonella on sprouting alfalfa seeds at inoculum size, native microbial load and Pseudomonas fluorescens 2-79. The obtained model fits well to the experimental data, with standard errors less than ten percent of the fitted average values. The results show that the MPD of Salmonella is not only dictated by performance characteristics of Salmonella but depends on the characteristics of the indigenous microbial population like total number of cells and its growth rate. The model can improve the predictions of microbiological growth in quantitative microbial risk assessments. Using this model, the effects of preventive measures to reduce pathogenic load and a concurrent effect on the background population can be better evaluated. If competing microorganisms are more sensitive to a particular decontamination method, a pathogenic microorganism may grow faster and reach a higher level. More knowledge regarding the effect of the indigenous microbial population (size, diversity, composition) of food products on pathogen dynamics is needed in order to make adequate predictions of pathogen dynamics on various food products.

Comparing population and incident data for optimal air ambulance base locations in Norway.

PubMed

Røislien, Jo; van den Berg, Pieter L; Lindner, Thomas; Zakariassen, Erik; Uleberg, Oddvar; Aardal, Karen; van Essen, J Theresia

2018-05-24

Helicopter emergency medical services are important in many health care systems. Norway has a nationwide physician manned air ambulance service servicing a country with large geographical variations in population density and incident frequencies. The aim of the study was to compare optimal air ambulance base locations using both population and incident data. We used municipality population and incident data for Norway from 2015. The 428 municipalities had a median (5-95 percentile) of 4675 (940-36,264) inhabitants and 10 (2-38) incidents. Optimal helicopter base locations were estimated using the Maximal Covering Location Problem (MCLP) optimization model, exploring the number and location of bases needed to cover various fractions of the population for time thresholds 30 and 45 min, in green field scenarios and conditioned on the existing base structure. The existing bases covered 96.90% of the population and 91.86% of the incidents for time threshold 45 min. Correlation between municipality population and incident frequencies was -0.0027, and optimal base locations varied markedly between the two data types, particularly when lowering the target time. The optimal solution using population density data put focus on the greater Oslo area, where one third of Norwegians live, while using incident data put focus on low population high incident areas, such as northern Norway and winter sport resorts. Using population density data as a proxy for incident frequency is not recommended, as the two data types lead to different optimal base locations. Lowering the target time increases the sensitivity to choice of data.

A population model of the impact of a rodenticide containing strychnine on Great Basin Gophersnakes (Pituophis catenifer deserticola).

PubMed

Bishop, Christine A; Williams, Kathleen E; Kirk, David A; Nantel, Patrick; Reed, Eric; Elliott, John E

2016-09-01

Strychnine is a neurotoxin and an active ingredient in some rodenticides which are placed in burrows to suppress pocket gopher (Thomomys talpoides) populations in range and crop land in western North America. The population level impact was modelled of the use of strychnine-based rodenticides on a non-target snake species, the Great Basin Gophersnake (Pituophis catenifer deserticola), which is a predator of pocket gopher and a Species at Risk in Canada. Using information on population density, demographics, and movement and habitat suitability for the Gophersnake living in an agricultural valley in BC, Canada, we estimated the impact of the poisoning of adult snakes on the long-term population size. To determine the area where Gophersnakes could be exposed to strychnine, we used vendor records of a rodenticide, and quantified the landcover areas of orchards and vineyards where the compound was most commonly applied. GIS analysis determined the areas of overlap between those agricultural lands and suitable habitats used by Gophersnakes. Stage-based population matrix models revealed that in a low density (0.1/ha) population scenario, a diet of one pocket gopher per year wherein 10 % of them carried enough strychnine to kill an adult snake could cause the loss of 2 females annually from the population and this would reduce the population by 35.3 % in 25 years. Under the same dietary exposure, up to 35 females could die per year in a high density (0.4/ha) population which would result in a loss of 50 % of adults in 25 years.

Distribution and sediment production of large benthic foraminifers on reef flats of the Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujita, K.; Osawa, Y.; Kayanne, H.; Ide, Y.; Yamano, H.

2009-03-01

The distributions and population densities of large benthic foraminifers (LBFs) were investigated on reef flats of the Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands. Annual sediment production by foraminifers was estimated based on population density data. Predominant LBFs were Calcarina and Amphistegina, and the population densities of these foraminifers varied with location and substratum type on reef flats. Both foraminifers primarily attached to macrophytes, particularly turf-forming algae, and were most abundant on an ocean reef flat (ORF) and in an inter-island channel near windward, sparsely populated islands. Calcarina density was higher on windward compared to leeward sides of ORFs, whereas Amphistegina density was similar on both sides of ORFs. These foraminifers were more common on the ocean side relative to the lagoon side of reef flats around a windward reef island, and both were rare or absent in nearshore zones around reef islands and on an ORF near windward, densely populated islands. Foraminiferal production rates varied with the degree to which habitats were subject to water motion and human influences. Highly productive sites (>103 g CaCO3 m-2 year-1) included an ORF and an inter-island channel near windward, sparsely populated islands, and a seaward area of a reef flat with no reef islands. Low-productivity sites (<10 g CaCO3 m-2 year-1) included generally nearshore zones of lagoonal reef flats, leeward ORFs, and a windward ORF near densely populated islands. These results suggest that the distribution and production of LBFs were largely influenced by a combination of natural environmental factors, including water motion, water depth, elevation relative to the lowest tidal level at spring tide, and the distribution of suitable substratum. The presence of reef islands may limit the distribution and production of foraminifers by altering water circulation in nearshore environments. Furthermore, increased anthropogenic factors (population and activities) may adversely affect foraminiferal distribution and production.

[Demography and nesting ecology of green iguana, Iguana iguana (Squamata: Iguanidae), in 2 exploited populations in Depresión Momposina, Colombia].

PubMed

Muñoz, Eliana M; Ortega, Angela M; Bock, Brian C; Páez, Vivian P

2003-03-01

We studied the demography and nesting ecology of two populations of Iguana iguana that face heavy exploitation and habitat modification in the Momposina Depression, Colombia. Lineal transect data was analyzed using the Fourier model to provide estimates of social group densities, which was found to differ both within and among populations (1.05-6.0 groups/ha). Mean group size and overall iguana density estimates varied between populations as well (1.5-13.7 iguanas/ha). The density estimates were far lower than those reported from more protected areas in Panama and Venezuela. Iguana densities were consistently higher in sites located along rivers (2.5 iguanas/group) than in sites along the margin of marshes, probably due to vegetational differences (1.5 iguanas/group). There was no correlation between density estimates and estimates of relative abundance (number of iguanas seen/hour/person) due to differing detectabilities of iguana groups among sites. The adult sex ratio (1:2.5 males:females) agreed well with other reports in the literature based upon observation of adult social groups, and probably results from the polygynous mating system in this species rather than a real demographic skew. Nesting in this population occurs from the end of January through March and hatching occurs between April and May. We monitored 34 nests, which suffered little vertebrate predation, perhaps due to the lack of a complete vertebrate fauna in this densely inhabited area, but nests suffered from inundation, cattle trampling, and infestation by phorid fly larvae. Clutch sizes in these populations were lower than all other published reports except for the iguana population on the highly xeric island of Curaçao, implying that adult females in our area are unusually small. We argue that this is more likely the result of the exploitation of these populations rather than an adaptive response to environmentally extreme conditions.

Modelling density-dependent resistance in insect-pathogen interactions.

PubMed

White, K A; Wilson, K

1999-10-01

We consider a mathematical model for a host-pathogen interaction where the host population is split into two categories: those susceptible to disease and those resistant to disease. Since the model was motivated by studies on insect populations, we consider a discrete-time model to reflect the discrete generations which are common among insect species. Whether an individual is born susceptible or resistant to disease depends on the local population levels at the start of each generation. In particular, we are interested in the case where the fraction of resistant individuals in the population increases as the total population increases. This may be seen as a positive feedback mechanism since disease is the only population control imposed upon the system. Moreover, it reflects recent experimental observations from noctuid moth-baculovirus interactions that pathogen resistance may increase with larval density. We find that the inclusion of a resistant class can stabilise unstable host-pathogen interactions but there is greatest regulation when the fraction born resistant is density independent. Nonetheless, inclusion of density dependence can still allow intrinsically unstable host-pathogen dynamics to be stabilised provided that this effect is sufficiently small. Moreover, inclusion of density-dependent resistance to disease allows the system to give rise to bistable dynamics in which the final outcome is dictated by the initial conditions for the model system. This has implications for the management of agricultural pests using biocontrol agents-in particular, it is suggested that the propensity for density-dependent resistance be determined prior to such a biocontrol attempt in order to be sure that this will result in the prevention of pest outbreaks, rather than their facilitation. Finally we consider how the cost of resistance to disease affects model outcomes and discover that when there is no cost to resistance, the model predicts stable periodic outbreaks of the insect population. The results are interpreted ecologically and future avenues for research to address the shortfalls in the present model system are discussed. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Temperature and population density: interactional effects of environmental factors on phenotypic plasticity, immune defenses, and disease resistance in an insect pest.

PubMed

Silva, Farley W S; Elliot, Simon L

2016-06-01

Temperature and crowding are key environmental factors mediating the transmission and epizooty of infectious disease in ectotherm animals. The host physiology may be altered in a temperature-dependent manner and thus affects the pathogen development and course of diseases within an individual and host population, or the transmission rates (or infectivity) of pathogens shift linearly with the host population density. To our understanding, the knowledge of interactive and synergistic effects of temperature and population density on the host-pathogen system is limited. Here, we tested the interactional effects of these environmental factors on phenotypic plasticity, immune defenses, and disease resistance in the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis . Upon egg hatching, caterpillars were reared in thermostat-controlled chambers in a 2 × 4 factorial design: density (1 or 8 caterpillars/pot) and temperature (20, 24, 28, or 32°C). Of the immune defenses assessed, encapsulation response was directly affected by none of the environmental factors; capsule melanization increased with temperature in both lone- and group-reared caterpillars, although the lone-reared ones presented the most evident response, and hemocyte numbers decreased with temperature regardless of the population density. Temperature, but not population density, affected considerably the time from inoculation to death of velvetbean caterpillar. Thus, velvetbean caterpillars succumbed to Anticarsia gemmatalis multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AgMNPV) more quickly at higher temperatures than at lower temperatures. As hypothesized, temperature likely affected caterpillars' movement rates, and thus the contact between conspecifics, which in turn affected the phenotypic expression of group-reared caterpillars. Our results suggest that environmental factors, mainly temperature, strongly affect both the course of disease in velvetbean caterpillar population and its defenses against pathogens. As a soybean pest, velvetbean caterpillar may increase its damage on soybean fields under a scenario of global warming as caterpillars may reach the developmental resistance faster, and thus decrease their susceptibility to biological control by AgMNPV.

Density-dependence as a size-independent regulatory mechanism.

PubMed

de Vladar, Harold P

2006-01-21

The growth function of populations is central in biomathematics. The main dogma is the existence of density-dependence mechanisms, which can be modelled with distinct functional forms that depend on the size of the population. One important class of regulatory functions is the theta-logistic, which generalizes the logistic equation. Using this model as a motivation, this paper introduces a simple dynamical reformulation that generalizes many growth functions. The reformulation consists of two equations, one for population size, and one for the growth rate. Furthermore, the model shows that although population is density-dependent, the dynamics of the growth rate does not depend either on population size, nor on the carrying capacity. Actually, the growth equation is uncoupled from the population size equation, and the model has only two parameters, a Malthusian parameter rho and a competition coefficient theta. Distinct sign combinations of these parameters reproduce not only the family of theta-logistics, but also the van Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Potential Growth equations, among other possibilities. It is also shown that, except for two critical points, there is a general size-scaling relation that includes those appearing in the most important allometric theories, including the recently proposed Metabolic Theory of Ecology. With this model, several issues of general interest are discussed such as the growth of animal population, extinctions, cell growth and allometry, and the effect of environment over a population.

High-density marker imputation accuracy in sixteen French cattle breeds.

PubMed

Hozé, Chris; Fouilloux, Marie-Noëlle; Venot, Eric; Guillaume, François; Dassonneville, Romain; Fritz, Sébastien; Ducrocq, Vincent; Phocas, Florence; Boichard, Didier; Croiseau, Pascal

2013-09-03

Genotyping with the medium-density Bovine SNP50 BeadChip® (50K) is now standard in cattle. The high-density BovineHD BeadChip®, which contains 777,609 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), was developed in 2010. Increasing marker density increases the level of linkage disequilibrium between quantitative trait loci (QTL) and SNPs and the accuracy of QTL localization and genomic selection. However, re-genotyping all animals with the high-density chip is not economically feasible. An alternative strategy is to genotype part of the animals with the high-density chip and to impute high-density genotypes for animals already genotyped with the 50K chip. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the error rate when imputing from the 50K to the high-density chip. Five thousand one hundred and fifty three animals from 16 breeds (89 to 788 per breed) were genotyped with the high-density chip. Imputation error rates from the 50K to the high-density chip were computed for each breed with a validation set that included the 20% youngest animals. Marker genotypes were masked for animals in the validation population in order to mimic 50K genotypes. Imputation was carried out using the Beagle 3.3.0 software. Mean allele imputation error rates ranged from 0.31% to 2.41% depending on the breed. In total, 1980 SNPs had high imputation error rates in several breeds, which is probably due to genome assembly errors, and we recommend to discard these in future studies. Differences in imputation accuracy between breeds were related to the high-density-genotyped sample size and to the genetic relationship between reference and validation populations, whereas differences in effective population size and level of linkage disequilibrium showed limited effects. Accordingly, imputation accuracy was higher in breeds with large populations and in dairy breeds than in beef breeds. More than 99% of the alleles were correctly imputed if more than 300 animals were genotyped at high-density. No improvement was observed when multi-breed imputation was performed. In all breeds, imputation accuracy was higher than 97%, which indicates that imputation to the high-density chip was accurate. Imputation accuracy depends mainly on the size of the reference population and the relationship between reference and target populations.

High-density marker imputation accuracy in sixteen French cattle breeds

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Genotyping with the medium-density Bovine SNP50 BeadChip® (50K) is now standard in cattle. The high-density BovineHD BeadChip®, which contains 777 609 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), was developed in 2010. Increasing marker density increases the level of linkage disequilibrium between quantitative trait loci (QTL) and SNPs and the accuracy of QTL localization and genomic selection. However, re-genotyping all animals with the high-density chip is not economically feasible. An alternative strategy is to genotype part of the animals with the high-density chip and to impute high-density genotypes for animals already genotyped with the 50K chip. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the error rate when imputing from the 50K to the high-density chip. Methods Five thousand one hundred and fifty three animals from 16 breeds (89 to 788 per breed) were genotyped with the high-density chip. Imputation error rates from the 50K to the high-density chip were computed for each breed with a validation set that included the 20% youngest animals. Marker genotypes were masked for animals in the validation population in order to mimic 50K genotypes. Imputation was carried out using the Beagle 3.3.0 software. Results Mean allele imputation error rates ranged from 0.31% to 2.41% depending on the breed. In total, 1980 SNPs had high imputation error rates in several breeds, which is probably due to genome assembly errors, and we recommend to discard these in future studies. Differences in imputation accuracy between breeds were related to the high-density-genotyped sample size and to the genetic relationship between reference and validation populations, whereas differences in effective population size and level of linkage disequilibrium showed limited effects. Accordingly, imputation accuracy was higher in breeds with large populations and in dairy breeds than in beef breeds. More than 99% of the alleles were correctly imputed if more than 300 animals were genotyped at high-density. No improvement was observed when multi-breed imputation was performed. Conclusion In all breeds, imputation accuracy was higher than 97%, which indicates that imputation to the high-density chip was accurate. Imputation accuracy depends mainly on the size of the reference population and the relationship between reference and target populations. PMID:24004563

A multi-scale assessment of animal aggregation patterns to understand increasing pathogen seroprevalence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brennan, Angela K.; Cross, Paul C.; Higgs, Megan D.; Edwards, W. Henry; Scurlock, Brandon M.; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

Understanding how animal density is related to pathogen transmission is important to develop effective disease control strategies, but requires measuring density at a scale relevant to transmission. However, this is not straightforward or well-studied among large mammals with group sizes that range several orders of magnitude or aggregation patterns that vary across space and time. To address this issue, we examined spatial variation in elk (Cervus canadensis) aggregation patterns and brucellosis across 10 regions in the Greater Yellowstone Area where previous studies suggest the disease may be increasing. We hypothesized that rates of increasing brucellosis would be better related to the frequency of large groups than mean group size or population density, but we examined whether other measures of density would also explain rising seroprevalence. To do this, we measured wintering elk density and group size across multiple spatial and temporal scales from monthly aerial surveys. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and 20 years of serologic data to estimate rates of increase in brucellosis within the 10 regions, and to examine the linear relationships between these estimated rates of increase and multiple measures of aggregation. Brucellosis seroprevalence increased over time in eight regions (one region showed an estimated increase from 0.015 in 1991 to 0.26 in 2011), and these rates of increase were positively related to all measures of aggregation. The relationships were weaker when the analysis was restricted to areas where brucellosis was present for at least two years, potentially because aggregation was related to disease-establishment within a population. Our findings suggest that (1) group size did not explain brucellosis increases any better than population density and (2) some elk populations may have high densities with small groups or lower densities with large groups, but brucellosis is likely to increase in either scenario. In this case, any one control method such as reducing population density or group size may not be sufficient to reduce transmission. This study highlights the importance of examining the density-transmission relationship at multiple scales and across populations before broadly applying disease control strategies.

LABORATORY EVOLUTION OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN THE BEAN WEEVIL (ACANTHOSCELIDES OBTECTUS): THE EFFECTS OF DENSITY-DEPENDENT AND AGE-SPECIFIC SELECTION.

PubMed

Tucić, Nikola; Stojković, Oliver; Gliksman, Ivana; Milanović, Agana; Šešlija, Darka

1997-12-01

Four types of laboratory populations of the bean weevil (Acanthoscelides obtectus) have been developed to study the effects of density-dependent and age-specific selection. These populations have been selected at high (K) and low larval densities (r) as well as for reproduction early (Y) and late (O) in life. The results presented here suggest that the r- and K-populations (density-dependent selection regimes) have differentiated from each other with respect to the following life-history traits: egg-to-adult viability at high larval density (K > r), preadult developmental time (r > K), body weight (r > K), late fecundity (K > r), total realized fecundity (r > K), and longevity of males (r > K). It was also found that the following traits responded in statistically significant manner in populations subjected to different age-specific selection regimes: egg-to-adult viability (O > Y), body weight (O > Y), early fecundity (Y > O), late fecundity (O > Y), and longevity of females and males (O > Y). Although several life-history traits (viability, body weight, late fecundity) responded in similar manner to both density-dependent and age-specific selection regimes, it appears that underlying genetic and physiological mechanisms responsible for differentiation of the r/K and Y/O populations are different. We have also tested quantitative genetic basis of the bean weevil life-history traits in the populations experiencing density-dependent and age-specific selection. Among the traits traded-off within age-specific selection regimes, only early fecundity showed directional dominance, whereas late fecundity and longevity data indicated additive inheritance. In contrast to age-specific selecton regimes, three life-history traits (developmental time, body size, total fecundity) in the density-sependent regimes exhibited significant dominance effects. Lastly, we have tested the congruence between short-term and long-term effects of larval densities. The comparisons of the outcomes of the r/K selection regimes and those obtained from the low- and high-larval densities revealed that there is no congruence between the selection results and phenotypic plasticity for the analyzed life-history traits in the bean weevil. © 1997 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Increase in Population Density and Aggravation of Social and Psychological Problems in Areas with High-Rise Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanova, Elena

2018-03-01

High-rise apartment houses have technical and economic advantages in areas with dense population. Their placement in the central part of the city allows increasing the number of living space in the limited territory, to bring population to the place of employment and reduce pendular migration. But increase in population density leads to psychological problems: level of a stress, fatigue increases, the number of phobias grows, infectious diseases extend quicker. These problems can be solved at resettlement of inhabitants to the suburb. However such decision leads to aggravation of a transport problem and the pulsing increase in population density in the downtown and on its suburb. To solve a transport problem, it is necessary not to increase the square of the cities. Therefore in the suburbs is also used high-rise construction. But high-rise residential districts on the suburb of the city get own social problems which are capable to destroy all advantages of high-rise construction.

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate and density-dependence on dispersal in a house sparrow metapopulation

PubMed Central

Pärn, Henrik; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Jensen, Henrik; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2012-01-01

Dispersal plays a key role in the response of populations to climate change and habitat fragmentation. Here, we use data from a long-term metapopulation study of a non-migratory bird, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), to examine the influence of increasing spring temperature and density-dependence on natal dispersal rates and how these relationships depend on spatial variation in habitat quality. The effects of spring temperature and population size on dispersal rate depended on the habitat quality. Dispersal rate increased with temperature and population size on poor-quality islands without farms, where house sparrows were more exposed to temporal fluctuations in weather conditions and food availability. By contrast, dispersal rate was independent of spring temperature and population size on high-quality islands with farms, where house sparrows had access to food and shelter all the year around. This illustrates large spatial heterogeneity within the metapopulation in how population density and environmental fluctuations affect the dispersal process. PMID:21613299

Effect of deer exclusion by fencing on abundance of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) on Fire Island, New York, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.; Butler, M.; Zhioua, E.

2002-01-01

The effects of deer exclusion on northern populations of lone star ticks, Amblyomma americanum, were tested at the Lighthouse Tract, Fire Island, NY, USA, where densities of this species have increased recently. Game fencing was erected to exclude deer from two sites of roughly one ha each, and populations of nymphal and adult A. americanum within were compared with those at control sites outside the exclosures. Percent control of nymphs within vs. outside the exclosures averaged 48.4% in the four years post-treatment, compared to pretreatment values. Percent control varied markedly in different years, suggesting that factors in addition to deer densities had strong effects on population densities of A. americanum. Exclosures of this size did not control adult A. americanum. Effects of deer exclusion in this recently expanded northern population of A. americanum were similar to those that have been reported for southern populations of this species.

Population cycles: generalities, exceptions and remaining mysteries.

PubMed

Myers, Judith H

2018-03-28

Population cycles are one of nature's great mysteries. For almost a hundred years, innumerable studies have probed the causes of cyclic dynamics in snowshoe hares, voles and lemmings, forest Lepidoptera and grouse. Even though cyclic species have very different life histories, similarities in mechanisms related to their dynamics are apparent. In addition to high reproductive rates and density-related mortality from predators, pathogens or parasitoids, other characteristics include transgenerational reduced reproduction and dispersal with increasing-peak densities, and genetic similarity among populations. Experiments to stop cyclic dynamics and comparisons of cyclic and noncyclic populations provide some understanding but both reproduction and mortality must be considered. What determines variation in amplitude and periodicity of population outbreaks remains a mystery. © 2018 The Author(s).

Predicting the response of populations to environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ives, A.R.

1995-04-01

When subject to long-term directional environmental perturbations, changes in population densities depend on the positive and negative feedbacks operating through interactions within and among species in a community. This paper develops techniques to predict the long-term responses of population densities to environmental changes using data on short-term population fluctuations driven by short-term environmental variability. In addition to giving quantitative predictions, the techniques also reveal how different qualitative patterns of species interactions either buffer or accentuate population responses to environmental trends. All of the predictions are based on regression coefficients extracted from time series data, and they can therefore be appliedmore » with a minimum of mathematical and statistical gymnastics. 48 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Threatened species richness along a Himalayan elevational gradient: quantifying the influences of human population density, range size, and geometric constraints.

PubMed

Paudel, Prakash Kumar; Sipos, Jan; Brodie, Jedediah F

2018-02-07

A crucial step in conserving biodiversity is to identify the distributions of threatened species and the factors associated with species threat status. In the biodiversity hotspot of the Himalaya, very little is known about which locations harbour the highest diversity of threatened species and whether diversity of such species is related to area, mid-domain effects (MDE), range size, or human density. In this study, we assessed the drivers of variation in richness of threatened birds, mammals, reptiles, actinopterygii, and amphibians along an elevational gradient in Nepal Himalaya. Although geometric constraints (MDE), species range size, and human population density were significantly related to threatened species richness, the interaction between range size and human population density was of greater importance. Threatened species richness was positively associated with human population density and negatively associated with range size. In areas with high richness of threatened species, species ranges tend to be small. The preponderance of species at risk of extinction at low elevations in the subtropical biodiversity hotspot could be due to the double impact of smaller range sizes and higher human density.

Benchmark study on glyphosate-resistant cropping systems in the United States. Part 7: Effects of weed management strategy (grower practices versus academic recommendations) on the weed soil seedbank over 6 years.

PubMed

Gibson, David J; Young, Bryan G; Owen, Micheal D K; Gage, Karla L; Matthews, Joseph L; Jordan, David L; Shaw, David R; Weller, Stephen C; Wilson, Robert G

2016-04-01

Shifts in weed species composition and richness resulting from near-exclusive reliance on herbicides in glyphosate-resistant (GR) cropping systems has necessitated the implementation of alternative weed management tactics to reduce selection pressures of herbicides. We contrasted the response of the weed soil seedbank to effects of weed management strategy, comparing grower practices with academic recommendations for best management practices (BMPs) over 6 years and across five weed hardiness zones in the US Midwest at sites subject to GR cropping systems. Total weed population density and species richness varied according to cropping system, location and prior year's crop, but less so to weed management strategy. The seedbank population density for 11 of the 14 most frequent weed species was affected by weed management strategy either alone or in an interaction with hardiness zone or year, or both. In only 29% of comparisons was weed population density lower following academic recommendations, and this depended upon prior crop and cropping system. The population density of high-risk weed species was reduced by academic recommendations, but only in two of six years and under continuous GR maize. Overall, the weed population density was decreasing in field halves subject to the BMPs in the academic recommendations relative to grower practices. The soil seedbank is slow to respond to academic recommendations to mitigate glyphosate-resistant weeds, but represents a biological legacy that growers need to keep in mind even when management practices reduce emerged field weed population densities. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

The interplay between seasonality and density: consequences for female breeding decisions in a small cyclic herbivore

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cyclic rodent population dynamics are subjected to both intrinsic regulatory processes such as density-dependence and extrinsic environmental forcing. Among extrinsic factors, seasonal environmental variation is understood to facilitate cycles. In rodents, these processes have been studied mostly independently and their relative importance for population dynamics is poorly known. Results We performed a detailed analysis of common vole (Microtus arvalis) reproduction in a cyclic population using a spatially extensive data set over 17 years in central-western France. Environmental seasonality was the main source of explained variation in common vole reproduction. Additionally, inter-annual variation in the environment explained a smaller part of the variance in reproduction in spring and summer than in winter, whereas the effect of density was only found in autumn and winter. In particular, we detected a strong impact of plant productivity on fecundity during the breeding season, with low vegetation productivity being able to bring vole reproduction nearly to a halt. In contrast, vole reproduction during autumn and winter was mainly shaped by intrinsic factors, with only the longer and heavier females being able to reproduce. The effect of population density on reproduction was negative, mediated by direct negative effects on the proportion of breeders in autumn and winter during outbreak years and by a delayed negative effect on litter size the following year. Conclusions During the main breeding season, variability of female vole reproduction is predominantly shaped by food resources, suggesting that only highly productive environment may induce vole outbreaks. During fall and winter, variability of female vole reproduction is mainly controlled by intrinsic factors, with high population density suppressing reproduction. This suggests, in this cyclic population, that negative direct density dependence on reproduction could explain winter declines after outbreaks. PMID:24886481

The interplay between seasonality and density: consequences for female breeding decisions in a small cyclic herbivore.

PubMed

Pinot, Adrien; Gauffre, Bertrand; Bretagnolle, Vincent

2014-05-28

Cyclic rodent population dynamics are subjected to both intrinsic regulatory processes such as density-dependence and extrinsic environmental forcing. Among extrinsic factors, seasonal environmental variation is understood to facilitate cycles. In rodents, these processes have been studied mostly independently and their relative importance for population dynamics is poorly known. We performed a detailed analysis of common vole (Microtus arvalis) reproduction in a cyclic population using a spatially extensive data set over 17 years in central-western France. Environmental seasonality was the main source of explained variation in common vole reproduction. Additionally, inter-annual variation in the environment explained a smaller part of the variance in reproduction in spring and summer than in winter, whereas the effect of density was only found in autumn and winter. In particular, we detected a strong impact of plant productivity on fecundity during the breeding season, with low vegetation productivity being able to bring vole reproduction nearly to a halt. In contrast, vole reproduction during autumn and winter was mainly shaped by intrinsic factors, with only the longer and heavier females being able to reproduce. The effect of population density on reproduction was negative, mediated by direct negative effects on the proportion of breeders in autumn and winter during outbreak years and by a delayed negative effect on litter size the following year. During the main breeding season, variability of female vole reproduction is predominantly shaped by food resources, suggesting that only highly productive environment may induce vole outbreaks. During fall and winter, variability of female vole reproduction is mainly controlled by intrinsic factors, with high population density suppressing reproduction. This suggests, in this cyclic population, that negative direct density dependence on reproduction could explain winter declines after outbreaks.

42 CFR 491.5 - Location of clinic.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... underserved population. (3) Both the RHC and the FQHC may be permanent or mobile units. (i) Permanent unit... Secretary (on the basis of the ratio of primary care physicians to the general population) to have an... stipulated population density, have combined populations of 50,000 and constitute, for general economic and...

42 CFR 414.410 - Phased-in implementation of competitive bidding programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... largest MSAs by total population based on 2009 population estimates, and not already phased in as of June 1, 2008). CMS may subdivide any of the 91 MSAs with a population of greater than 8,000,000 into... population of less than 250,000. (iii) An area with low population density within an MSA not selected under...

42 CFR 414.410 - Phased-in implementation of competitive bidding programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... largest MSAs by total population based on 2009 population estimates, and not already phased in as of June 1, 2008). CMS may subdivide any of the 91 MSAs with a population of greater than 8,000,000 into... population of less than 250,000. (iii) An area with low population density within an MSA not selected under...

42 CFR 414.410 - Phased-in implementation of competitive bidding programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... largest MSAs by total population based on 2009 population estimates, and not already phased in as of June 1, 2008). CMS may subdivide any of the 91 MSAs with a population of greater than 8,000,000 into... population of less than 250,000. (iii) An area with low population density within an MSA not selected under...

Population Density Modeling for Diverse Land Use Classes: Creating a National Dasymetric Worker Population Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trombley, N.; Weber, E.; Moehl, J.

2017-12-01

Many studies invoke dasymetric mapping to make more accurate depictions of population distribution by spatially restricting populations to inhabited/inhabitable portions of observational units (e.g., census blocks) and/or by varying population density among different land classes. LandScan USA uses this approach by restricting particular population components (such as residents or workers) to building area detected from remotely sensed imagery, but also goes a step further by classifying each cell of building area in accordance with ancillary land use information from national parcel data (CoreLogic, Inc.'s ParcelPoint database). Modeling population density according to land use is critical. For instance, office buildings would have a higher density of workers than warehouses even though the latter would likely have more cells of detection. This paper presents a modeling approach by which different land uses are assigned different densities to more accurately distribute populations within them. For parts of the country where the parcel data is insufficient, an alternate methodology is developed that uses National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data to define the land use type of building detection. Furthermore, LiDAR data is incorporated for many of the largest cities across the US, allowing the independent variables to be updated from two-dimensional building detection area to total building floor space. In the end, four different regression models are created to explain the effect of different land uses on worker distribution: A two-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A three-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A two-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data, and A three-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data. By and large, the resultant coefficients followed intuition, but importantly allow the relationships between different land uses to be quantified. For instance, in the model using two-dimensional building area, commercial building area had a density 2.5 times greater than public building area and 4 times greater than industrial building area. These coefficients can be applied to define the ratios at which population is distributed to building cells. Finally, possible avenues for refining the methodology are presented.

The determinants of county growth.

PubMed

Carlino, G A; Mills, E S

1987-02-01

The determinants of population and employment growth were explored from a broader interregional (as opposed to intraregional) perspective. Data for the 1970s, at the county level of disaggregation, were used to analyze the effects of economic, demographic, and climatic variables on population and employment growth in a simultaneous equation framework. The use of data from the more than 3000 US counties provides a considerably larger testing ground than those used in previous research. The point of departure was a conventional, general equilibrium model in which both households and producers are geographically mobile. The study's dependent variables refer to population, total, and manufacturing employment densities. Family income had a powerful effect in stimulating both population and employment density. A 10% increase in family income led to a 7.9% increase in total and a 9.2% increase in manufacturing employment densities. High family income must stand for high demand, and thus, firms are drawn to an area. High family income also drew households to an area. A 10% increase in family income led to a 5.5% increase in population density. High family income must represent "good" neighborhoods for households. High family income was positively correlated with population and employment density, but in other recent studies either a negative and significant relationship or an insignificant relationship were reported. Local taxes consist of the receipts of county government and those of municipalities, townships, school districts, and special districts within the county. The elasticities reported in Table 4 suggest that a 10% increase in such taxes resulted in about a 0.072% reduction in county population density during the decade. The Industrial Revenue Bonds (IRBs) and the percent of the labor force that is unionized are 2 potential policy instruments at the state level. The study results suggest that IRBs have not stimulated either manufacturing or total employment, and the coefficients were statistically insignificant in the structural equations. The elasticities imply that a 10% increase in percent union reduces total employment by 0.42% and manufacturing employment by 0.18%. The effect on population was tiny. Further, while not intended, the interstate highway program may have been a significant redistributor of population and employment but has not caused immigration of people and jobs from central cities.

Current Status of Mimosa pigra L. Infestation in Peninsular Malaysia

PubMed Central

Mansor, Asyraf; Crawley, Micheal J.

2011-01-01

The status and distribution of Mimosa pigra L., a semi-aquatic invasive species in Peninsular Malaysia, were continuously assessed between 2004 and 2007. This assessment investigated its population stand density and related weed management activities. In total, 106 sites of 6 main habitat types i.e., construction site (CS), dam/ reservoir (DM), forest reserve (FR), plantation (PL), river bank/waterway (RB) and roadside (RD) were assessed, and 55 sites were recorded with M. pigra populations. A CS is the most likely habitat to be infested with M. pigra (16 out of 18 assessed sites have this weed), whereas none of the FR visited were found to harbour M. pigra. In terms of population stand density, 41 populations were in the low range of stand density (individual plant of ≤5 m−2), compared to only 9 populations in the high range of stand density (individual plant of >10 m−2). In general, the current impact of M. pigra infestation on natural habitats is relatively low, as its distribution is only confined to disturbed areas. However, continuous monitoring of this weed species is highly recommended, especially in the riparian zone and wetland habitats. PMID:24575208

Clinal patterns in genetic variation for northern leopard frog (Rana pipiens): Conservation status and population histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockwell, Craig A.; Fisher, Justin D.L.; McLean, Kyle I.

2016-01-01

The security of the northern leopard frog (Rana pipiens) varies spatially with populations east and west of North Dakota considered as secure and at risk, respectively. We used genetic markers to characterize the conservation status of northern leopard frog populations across North Dakota. We used multiple regression analyses and model selection to evaluate correlations of expected heterozygosity (HE) with the direct and additive effects of: i) geographic location,ii) wetland density and iii) average annual precipitation. There was lower genetic diversity in the western portion of the state due to lower levels of diversity for populations southwest of the Missouri River. This may reflect a refugial/colonization signature for the only non-glaciated area of North Dakota. Genetic diversity was also positively associated with wetland densities which is consistent with the reliance of this species on a mosaic of wetlands. Our findings suggest that populations in the southwestern part of North Dakota are of higher conservation concern, a finding consistent with the higher risk noted for northern leopard frog populations in most states west of North Dakota. Our findings also pose the hypothesis that climate change induced changes in wetland densities will reduce genetic diversity of northern leopard frog populations.

A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models.

PubMed

Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James

2011-09-01

Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that can arise even from simple models following ecological disturbances or perturbations. Recent interest in such transient dynamics has led to diverse methodologies for their quantification in density-independent, time-invariant population projection matrix (PPM) models, but the fragmented nature of this literature has stifled the widespread analysis of transients. We review the literature on transient analyses of linear PPM models and synthesise a coherent framework. We promote the use of standardised indices, and categorise indices according to their focus on either convergence times or transient population density, and on either transient bounds or case-specific transient dynamics. We use a large database of empirical PPM models to explore relationships between indices of transient dynamics. This analysis promotes the use of population inertia as a simple, versatile and informative predictor of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Use of generalized population ratios to obtain Fe XV line intensities and linewidths at high electron densities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kastner, S. O.; Bhatia, A. K.

1980-01-01

A generalized method for obtaining individual level population ratios is used to obtain relative intensities of extreme ultraviolet Fe XV emission lines in the range 284-500 A, which are density dependent for electron densities in the tokamak regime or higher. Four lines in particular are found to attain quite high intensities in the high-density limit. The same calculation provides inelastic contributions to linewidths. The method connects level populations and level widths through total probabilities t(ij), related to 'taboo' probabilities of Markov chain theory. The t(ij) are here evaluated for a real atomic system, being therefore of potential interest to random-walk theorists who have been limited to idealized systems characterized by simplified transition schemes.

Use of generalized population ratios to obtain Fe XV line intensities and linewidths at high electron densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastner, S. O.; Bhatia, A. K.

1980-08-01

A generalized method for obtaining individual level population ratios is used to obtain relative intensities of extreme ultraviolet Fe XV emission lines in the range 284-500 A, which are density dependent for electron densities in the tokamak regime or higher. Four lines in particular are found to attain quite high intensities in the high-density limit. The same calculation provides inelastic contributions to linewidths. The method connects level populations and level widths through total probabilities t(ij), related to 'taboo' probabilities of Markov chain theory. The t(ij) are here evaluated for a real atomic system, being therefore of potential interest to random-walk theorists who have been limited to idealized systems characterized by simplified transition schemes.

Does White Clover (Trifolium repens) Abundance in Temperate Pastures Determine Sitona obsoletus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Larval Populations?

PubMed

McNeill, Mark R; van Koten, Chikako; Cave, Vanessa M; Chapman, David; Hodgson, Hamish

2016-01-01

To determine if host plant abundance determined the size of clover root weevil (CRW) Sitona obsoletus larval populations, a study was conducted over 4 years in plots sown in ryegrass ( Lolium perenne ) (cv. Nui) sown at either 6 or 30 kg/ha and white clover ( Trifolium repens ) sown at a uniform rate of 8 kg/ha. This provided a range of % white clover content to investigate CRW population establishment and impacts on white clover survival. Larval sampling was carried out in spring (October) when larval densities are near their spring peak at Lincoln (Canterbury, New Zealand) with % clover measured in autumn (April) and spring (September) of each year. Overall, mean larval densities measured in spring 2012-2015 were 310, 38, 59, and 31 larvae m -2 , respectively. There was a significant decline in larval populations between 2012 and 2013, but spring populations were relatively uniform thereafter. The mean % white clover measured in autumns of 2012 to 2015 was 17, 10, 3, and 11%, respectively. In comparison, mean spring % white clover from 2012 to 2015, averaged c. 5% each year. Analysis relating spring (October) larval populations to % white clover measured in each plot in autumn (April) found the 2012 larval population to be statistically significantly larger in the ryegrass 6 kg/ha plots than 30 kg/ha plots. Thereafter, sowing rate had no significant effect on larval populations. From 2013 to 2015, spring larval populations had a negative relationship with the previous autumn % white clover with the relationship highly significant for the 2014 data. When CRW larval populations in spring 2013 to 2015 were predicted from the 2013 to 2015 autumn % white clover, respectively, based on their positive relationship in 2012, the predicted densities were substantially larger than those observed. Conversely, when 2015 spring larval data and % clover was regressed against 2012-2014 larval populations, observed densities tended to be higher than predicted, but the numbers came closer to predicted for the 2013 and 2014 populations. These differences are attributed to a CRW population decline that was not accounted by % white clover changes, the CRW decline most likely due to biological control by the Braconid endoparasitoid Microctonus aethiopoides , which showed incremental increases in parasitism between 2012 and 2015, which in 2015 averaged 93%.

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Chris; Saracco, James; Holmgren, Mandy; Wilkerson, Robert; Siegel, Rodney; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Ransom, Jason I.; Happe, Patricia J.; Boetsch, John; Huff, Mark

2017-01-01

Monitoring species in National Parks facilitates inference regarding effects of climate change on population dynamics because parks are relatively unaffected by other forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Even at early points in a monitoring program, identifying climate covariates of population density can suggest vulnerabilities to future change. Monitoring landbird populations in parks during the breeding season brings the added benefit of allowing a comparative approach to inference across a large suite of species with diverse requirements. For example, comparing resident and migratory species that vary in exposure to non-park habitats can reveal the relative importance of park effects, such as those related to local climate. We monitored landbirds using breeding-season point-count data collected during 2005–2014 in three wilderness areas of the Pacific Northwest (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks). For 39 species, we estimated recent trends in population density while accounting for individual detection probability using Bayesian hierarchical N-mixture models. Our analyses integrated several recent developments in N-mixture modeling, incorporating interval and distance sampling to estimate distinct components of detection probability while also accommodating count intervals of varying duration, annual variation in the length and number of point-count transects, spatial autocorrelation, random effects, and covariates of detection and density. As covariates of density, we considered metrics of precipitation and temperature hypothesized to affect breeding success. We also considered effects of park and elevational stratum on trend. Regardless of model structure, we estimated stable or increasing densities during 2005–2014 for most populations. Mean trends across species were positive for migrants in every park and for residents in one park. A recent snowfall deficit in this region might have contributed to the positive trend, because population density varied inversely with precipitation-as-snow for both migrants and residents. Densities varied directly but much more weakly with mean spring temperature. Our approach exemplifies an analytical framework for estimating trends from point-count data, and for assessing the role of climatic and other spatiotemporal variables in driving those trends. Understanding population trends and the factors that drive them is critical for adaptive management and resource stewardship in the context of climate change.

Mycobacterial Cultures Contain Cell Size and Density Specific Sub-populations of Cells with Significant Differential Susceptibility to Antibiotics, Oxidative and Nitrite Stress

PubMed Central

Vijay, Srinivasan; Nair, Rashmi Ravindran; Sharan, Deepti; Jakkala, Kishor; Mukkayyan, Nagaraja; Swaminath, Sharmada; Pradhan, Atul; Joshi, Niranjan V.; Ajitkumar, Parthasarathi

2017-01-01

The present study shows the existence of two specific sub-populations of Mycobacterium smegmatis and Mycobacterium tuberculosis cells differing in size and density, in the mid-log phase (MLP) cultures, with significant differential susceptibility to antibiotic, oxidative, and nitrite stress. One of these sub-populations (~10% of the total population), contained short-sized cells (SCs) generated through highly-deviated asymmetric cell division (ACD) of normal/long-sized mother cells and symmetric cell divisions (SCD) of short-sized mother cells. The other sub-population (~90% of the total population) contained normal/long-sized cells (NCs). The SCs were acid-fast stainable and heat-susceptible, and contained high density of membrane vesicles (MVs, known to be lipid-rich) on their surface, while the NCs possessed negligible density of MVs on the surface, as revealed by scanning and transmission electron microscopy. Percoll density gradient fractionation of MLP cultures showed the SCs-enriched fraction (SCF) at lower density (probably indicating lipid-richness) and the NCs-enriched fraction (NCF) at higher density of percoll fractions. While live cell imaging showed that the SCs and the NCs could grow and divide to form colony on agarose pads, the SCF, and NCF cells could independently regenerate MLP populations in liquid and solid media, indicating their full genomic content and population regeneration potential. CFU based assays showed the SCF cells to be significantly more susceptible than NCF cells to a range of concentrations of rifampicin and isoniazid (antibiotic stress), H2O2 (oxidative stress),and acidified NaNO2 (nitrite stress). Live cell imaging showed significantly higher susceptibility of the SCs of SC-NC sister daughter cell pairs, formed from highly-deviated ACD of normal/long-sized mother cells, to rifampicin and H2O2, as compared to the sister daughter NCs, irrespective of their comparable growth rates. The SC-SC sister daughter cell pairs, formed from the SCDs of short-sized mother cells and having comparable growth rates, always showed comparable stress-susceptibility. These observations and the presence of M. tuberculosis SCs and NCs in pulmonary tuberculosis patients' sputum earlier reported by us imply a physiological role for the SCs and the NCs under the stress conditions. The plausible reasons for the higher stress susceptibility of SCs and lower stress susceptibility of NCs are discussed. PMID:28377757

Country roads, take me home… to my friends: How intelligence, population density, and friendship affect modern happiness.

PubMed

Li, Norman P; Kanazawa, Satoshi

2016-11-01

We propose the savanna theory of happiness, which suggests that it is not only the current consequences of a given situation but also its ancestral consequences that affect individuals' life satisfaction and explains why such influences of ancestral consequences might interact with intelligence. We choose two varied factors that characterize basic differences between ancestral and modern life - population density and frequency of socialization with friends - as empirical test cases. As predicted by the theory, population density is negatively, and frequency of socialization with friends is positively, associated with life satisfaction. More importantly, the main associations of life satisfaction with population density and socialization with friends significantly interact with intelligence, and, in the latter case, the main association is reversed among the extremely intelligent. More intelligent individuals experience lower life satisfaction with more frequent socialization with friends. This study highlights the utility of incorporating evolutionary perspectives in the study of subjective well-being. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Using Phase Space Density Profiles to Investigate the Radiation Belt Seed Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, A. J.; Spence, H.; Reeves, G. D.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J. F.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Turner, D. L.

2013-12-01

It is believed that particles with energies of 100s of keV play a critical role in the acceleration of electrons within the radiation belt. Through wave particle interactions, these so called 'seed electrons' can be accelerated up to energies greater than 1 MeV. Using data from the MagEIS (Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer) Instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes we calculate phase space density within the radiation belts over a wide range of mu and K values. These phase space density profiles are combined with those from THEMIS, in order to see how the phase space density evolves over a large range of L*. In this presentation we examine how the seed electron population evolves in both time and L* during acceleration events. Comparing this to the evolution of the higher mu electron population allows us to determine what role the seed electrons played in the acceleration process. Finally, we compare several of these storms to examine the importance of the seed population to the acceleration process.

The relationship between population density and cancer mortality in Taiwan.

PubMed

Yang, C Y; Hsieh, Y L

1998-04-01

Many investigators have examined urbanization gradients in cancer rates. The purpose of this report was to identify urban-rural trends in cancer mortality rates (1982-1991) for municipalities in Taiwan. For this purpose, Taiwan's municipalities were classified as rural, suburban, urban, or metropolitan, using population density as an ordinal indicator of the degree of urbanization. Average annual age-adjusted, site-specific cancer mortality rates were calculated for both sexes within each population density group. Significant increasing trends with more urbanization were observed in mortality rates for cancers of the lung, pancreas, and kidney among both males and females, as well as male prostate cancer, and female breast and ovary cancer. In addition, this study revealed a significant rural excess for nonmelanoma skin cancer among both males and females, as well as male non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and cancers of the female bone, and female connective tissue. Analytic studies for sites with consistent urban-rural trends may be fruitful in identifying the aspect of population density, or other unmeasured factors, that contribute to these trends.

Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

2009-05-01

We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1

Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

PubMed Central

Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

Seahorse (Hippocampinae) population fluctuations in the Ria Formosa Lagoon, south Portugal.

PubMed

Correia, M; Caldwell, I R; Koldewey, H J; Andrade, J P; Palma, J

2015-09-01

Comparisons of three sets of surveys in the Ria Formosa Lagoon, Portugal, over a 13 year period (2001-2002, 2008-2009 and 2010-2013) revealed significant population fluctuations in at least one of the two seahorse (Hippocampinae) species living there, and that those fluctuations were potentially associated with habitat changes in the lagoon. After a significant decline between the first two survey periods (2001-2002 v. 2008-2009), long-snouted seahorse Hippocampus guttulatus populations increased significantly between 2008-2009 surveys and new 2010-2013 surveys. There were no significant differences in H. guttulatus populations between the 2001-2002 and 2010-2013 surveys. In contrast, there were no significant differences in short-snouted seahorse Hippocampus hippocampus densities among the 16 sites surveyed throughout the three sampling periods, although the ability to detect any change was hampered by the low densities of this species in all time periods. Fluctuations in H. guttulatus densities were positively correlated with the percentage of holdfast coverage, but with none of the other environmental variables tested. These results highlight the importance of holdfast availability in maintaining stable seahorse populations. While population fluctuations are certainly more promising than a consistent downward decline, such extreme fluctuations observed for seahorses in the Ria Formosa Lagoon could still leave these two species vulnerable to any additional stressors, particularly during low density periods. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

PubMed Central

Purvis, Andy; Sechrest, Wes; Gittleman, John L; Bielby, Jon; Mace, Georgina M

2004-01-01

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future. PMID:15252445

Community characteristics that attract physicians in Japan: a cross-sectional analysis of community demographic and economic factors.

PubMed

Matsumoto, Masatoshi; Inoue, Kazuo; Noguchi, Satomi; Toyokawa, Satoshi; Kajii, Eiji

2009-02-18

In many countries, there is a surplus of physicians in some communities and a shortage in others. Population size is known to be correlated with the number of physicians in a community, and is conventionally considered to represent the power of communities to attract physicians. However, associations between other demographic/economic variables and the number of physicians in a community have not been fully evaluated. This study seeks other parameters that correlate with the physician population and show which characteristics of a community determine its "attractiveness" to physicians. Associations between the number of physicians and selected demographic/economic/life-related variables of all of Japan's 3132 municipalities were examined. In order to exclude the confounding effect of community size, correlations between the physician-to-population ratio and other variable-to-population ratios or variable-to-area ratios were evaluated with simple correlation and multiple regression analyses. The equity of physician distribution against each variable was evaluated by the orenz curve and Gini index. Among the 21 variables selected, the service industry workers-to-population ratio (0.543), commercial land price (0.527), sales of goods per person (0.472), and daytime population density (0.451) were better correlated with the physician-to-population ratio than was population density (0.409). Multiple regression analysis showed that the service industry worker-to-population ratio, the daytime population density, and the elderly rate were each independently correlated with the physician-to-population ratio (standardized regression coefficient 0.393, 0.355, 0.089 respectively; each p<0.001). Equity of physician distribution was higher against service industry population (Gini index=0.26) and daytime population (0.28) than against population (0.33). Daytime population and service industry population in a municipality are better parameters of community attractiveness to physicians than population. Because attractiveness is supposed to consist of medical demand and the amenities of urban life, the two parameters may represent the amount of medical demand and/or the extent of urban amenities of the community more precisely than population does. The conventional demand-supply analysis based solely on population as the demand parameter may overestimate the inequity of the physician distribution among communities.

Mapping Air Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Michael P.; Hunt, Paul; Weiß, Konrad

2018-05-01

"Air population" refers to the total number of people flying above the earth at any point in time. The total number of passengers can then be estimated by multiplying the number of seats for each aircraft by the current seat occupancy rate. Using this method, the estimated air population is determined by state for the airspace over the United States. In the interactive, real-time mapping system, maps are provided to show total air population, the density of air population (air population / area of state), and the ratio of air population to ground population.

Sensitivity of MSE measurements on the beam atomic level population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruiz, C., E-mail: carlos.ruiz@wisc.edu; Kumar, S. T. A.; Anderson, F. S. B.

The effect of variation in atomic level population of a neutral beam on the Motional Stark Effect (MSE) measurements is investigated in the low density plasmas of HSX stellarator. A 30 KeV, 4 A, 3 ms hydrogen diagnostic neutral beam is injected into HSX plasmas of line averaged electron density ranging from 2 to 4 ⋅ 10{sup 18} m{sup −3} at a magnetic field of 1 T. For this density range, the excited level population of the hydrogen neutral beam is expected to undergo variations. Doppler shifted and Stark split H{sub α} and H{sub β} emissions from the beam aremore » simultaneously measured using two cross-calibrated spectrometers. The emission spectrum is simulated and fit to the experimental measurements and the deviation from a statistically populated beam is investigated.« less

Anticipatory flexibility: larval population density in moths determines male investment in antennae, wings and testes.

PubMed

Johnson, Tamara L; Symonds, Matthew R E; Elgar, Mark A

2017-11-15

Developmental plasticity provides individuals with a distinct advantage when the reproductive environment changes dramatically. Variation in population density, in particular, can have profound effects on male reproductive success. Females may be easier to locate in dense populations, but there may be a greater risk of sperm competition. Thus, males should invest in traits that enhance fertilization success over traits that enhance mate location. Conversely, males in less dense populations should invest more in structures that will facilitate mate location. In Lepidoptera, this may result in the development of larger antennae to increase the likelihood of detecting female sex pheromones, and larger wings to fly more efficiently. We explored the effects of larval density on adult morphology in the gum-leaf skeletonizer moth, Uraba lugens , by manipulating both the number of larvae and the size of the rearing container. This experimental arrangement allowed us to reveal the cues used by larvae to assess whether absolute number or density influences adult responses. Male investment in testes size depended on the number of individuals, while male investment in wings and antennae depended upon larval density. By contrast, the size of female antennae and wings were influenced by an interaction of larval number and container size. This study demonstrates that male larvae are sensitive to cues that may reveal adult population density, and adjust investment in traits associated with fertilization success and mate detection accordingly. © 2017 The Author(s).

Poor horse traders: large mammals trade survival for reproduction during the process of feralization

PubMed Central

Grange, Sophie; Duncan, Patrick; Gaillard, Jean-Michel

2009-01-01

We investigated density dependence on the demographic parameters of a population of Camargue horses (Equus caballus), individually monitored and unmanaged for eight years. We also analysed the contributions of individual demographic parameters to changes in the population growth rates. The decrease in resources caused a loss of body condition. Adult male survival was not affected, but the survival of foals and adult females decreased with increasing density. Prime-aged females maintained high reproductive performance at high density, and their survival decreased. The higher survival of adult males compared with females at high density presumably results from higher investment in reproduction by mares. The high fecundity in prime-aged females, even when at high density, may result from artificial selection for high reproductive performance, which is known to have occurred in all the major domestic ungulates. Other studies suggest that feral ungulates including cattle and sheep, as these horses, respond differently from wild ungulates to increases in density, by trading adult survival for reproduction. As a consequence, populations of feral animals should oscillate more strongly than their wild counterparts, since they should be both more invasive (as they breed faster), and more sensitive to harsh environmental conditions (as the population growth rate of long-lived species is consistently more sensitive to a given proportional change in adult survival than to the same change in any other vital rate). If this principle proves to be general, it has important implications for management of populations of feral ungulates. PMID:19324787

Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico

PubMed Central

Diffendorfer, Jay E.; López-Hoffman, Laura; Oberhauser, Karen; Pleasants, John; Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius; Taylor, Orley R.; Wiederholt, Ruscena

2017-01-01

Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, which is then multiplied by the density of individuals per hectare to estimate population size. There is, however, considerable variation in published estimates of overwintering density, ranging from 6.9–60.9 million ha−1. We develop a probability distribution for overwinter density of monarch butterflies from six published density estimates. The mean density among the mixture of the six published estimates was ∼27.9 million butterflies ha−1 (95% CI [2.4–80.7] million ha−1); the mixture distribution is approximately log-normal, and as such is better represented by the median (21.1 million butterflies ha−1). Based upon assumptions regarding the number of milkweed needed to support monarchs, the amount of milkweed (Asclepias spp.) lost (0.86 billion stems) in the northern US plus the amount of milkweed remaining (1.34 billion stems), we estimate >1.8 billion stems is needed to return monarchs to an average population size of 6 ha. Considerable uncertainty exists in this required amount of milkweed because of the considerable uncertainty occurring in overwinter density estimates. Nevertheless, the estimate is on the same order as other published estimates. The studies included in our synthesis differ substantially by year, location, method, and measures of precision. A better understanding of the factors influencing overwintering density across space and time would be valuable for increasing the precision of conservation recommendations. PMID:28462031

Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Oberhauser, Karen; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Taylor, Orley R.; Wiederholt, Ruscena

2017-01-01

Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, which is then multiplied by the density of individuals per hectare to estimate population size. There is, however, considerable variation in published estimates of overwintering density, ranging from 6.9–60.9 million ha−1. We develop a probability distribution for overwinter density of monarch butterflies from six published density estimates. The mean density among the mixture of the six published estimates was ∼27.9 million butterflies ha−1 (95% CI [2.4–80.7] million ha−1); the mixture distribution is approximately log-normal, and as such is better represented by the median (21.1 million butterflies ha−1). Based upon assumptions regarding the number of milkweed needed to support monarchs, the amount of milkweed (Asclepias spp.) lost (0.86 billion stems) in the northern US plus the amount of milkweed remaining (1.34 billion stems), we estimate >1.8 billion stems is needed to return monarchs to an average population size of 6 ha. Considerable uncertainty exists in this required amount of milkweed because of the considerable uncertainty occurring in overwinter density estimates. Nevertheless, the estimate is on the same order as other published estimates. The studies included in our synthesis differ substantially by year, location, method, and measures of precision. A better understanding of the factors influencing overwintering density across space and time would be valuable for increasing the precision of conservation recommendations.

Effects of urbanization on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams, Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ourso, Robert T.

2001-01-01

The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was examined by using data gathered during a 1999 reconnaissance of 14 sites in the Municipality of Anchorage, Alaska. Data collected included macroinvertebrate abundance, water chemistry, and trace elements in bed sediments. Macroinvertebrate relative-abundance data were edited and used in metric and index calculations. Population density was used as a surrogate for urbanization. Cluster analysis (unweighted-paired-grouping method) using arithmetic means of macroinvertebrate presence-absence data showed a well-defined separation between urbanized and nonurbanized sites as well as extracted sites that did not cleanly fall into either category. Water quality in Anchorage generally declined with increasing urbanization (population density). Of 59 variables examined, 31 correlated with urbanization. Local regression analysis extracted 11 variables that showed a significant impairment threshold response and 6 that showed a significant linear response. Significant biological variables for determining the impairment threshold in this study were the Margalef diversity index, Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera taxa richness, and total taxa richness. Significant thresholds were observed in the water-chemistry variables conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, potassium, and total dissolved solids. Significant thresholds in trace elements in bed sediments included arsenic, iron, manganese, and lead. Results suggest that sites in Anchorage that have ratios of population density to road density greater than 70, storm-drain densities greater than 0.45 miles per square mile, road densities greater than 4 miles per square mile, or population densities greater than 125-150 persons per square mile may require further monitoring to determine if the stream has become impaired. This population density is far less than the 1,000 persons per square mile used by the U.S. Census Bureau to define an urban area.

Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

PubMed

Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

1998-11-01

We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): galaxy environments and star formation rate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijesinghe, D. B.; Hopkins, A. M.; Brough, S.; Taylor, E. N.; Norberg, P.; Bauer, A.; Brown, M. J. I.; Cameron, E.; Conselice, C. J.; Croom, S.; Driver, S.; Grootes, M. W.; Jones, D. H.; Kelvin, L.; Loveday, J.; Pimbblet, K. A.; Popescu, C. C.; Prescott, M.; Sharp, R.; Baldry, I.; Sadler, E. M.; Liske, J.; Robotham, A. S. G.; Bamford, S.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.; Gunawardhana, M.; Meyer, M.; Parkinson, H.; Drinkwater, M. J.; Peacock, J.; Tuffs, R.

2012-07-01

We present a detailed investigation into the effects of galaxy environment on their star formation rates (SFRs) using galaxies observed in the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey. We use three independent volume-limited samples of galaxies within z < 0.2 and Mr < -17.8. We investigate the known SFR-density relationship and explore in detail the dependence of SFR on stellar mass and density. We show that the SFR-density trend is only visible when we include the passive galaxy population along with the star-forming population. This SFR-density relation is absent when we consider only the star-forming population of galaxies, consistent with previous work. While there is a strong dependence of the EWHα on density we find, as in previous studies, that these trends are largely due to the passive galaxy population and this relationship is absent when considering a 'star-forming' sample of galaxies. We find that stellar mass has the strongest influence on SFR and EWHα with the environment having no significant effect on the star formation properties of the star-forming population. We also show that the SFR-density relationship is absent for both early- and late-type star-forming galaxies. We conclude that the stellar mass has the largest impact on the current SFR of a galaxy, and any environmental effect is not detectable. The observation that the trends with density are due to the changing morphology fraction with density implies that the time-scales must be very short for any quenching of the SFR in infalling galaxies. Alternatively, galaxies may in fact undergo predominantly in situ evolution where the infall and quenching of galaxies from the field into dense environments is not the dominant evolutionary mode.

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

PubMed Central

Robinson, Hugh S.; Abarca, Maria; Zeller, Katherine A.; Velasquez, Grisel; Paemelaere, Evi A. D.; Goldberg, Joshua F.; Payan, Esteban; Hoogesteijn, Rafael; Boede, Ernesto O.; Schmidt, Krzysztof; Lampo, Margarita; Viloria, Ángel L.; Carreño, Rafael; Robinson, Nathaniel; Lukacs, Paul M.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Salom-Pérez, Roberto; Castañeda, Franklin; Boron, Valeria; Quigley, Howard

2018-01-01

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions. PMID:29579129

Inter-class competition in stage-structured populations: effects of adult density on life-history traits of adult and juvenile common lizards.

PubMed

San-Jose, Luis M; Peñalver-Alcázar, Miguel; Huyghe, Katleen; Breedveld, Merel C; Fitze, Patrick S

2016-12-01

Ecological and evolutionary processes in natural populations are largely influenced by the population's stage-structure. Commonly, different classes have different competitive abilities, e.g., due to differences in body size, suggesting that inter-class competition may be important and largely asymmetric. However, experimental evidence states that inter-class competition, which is important, is rare and restricted to marine fish. Here, we manipulated the adult density in six semi-natural populations of the European common lizard, Zootoca vivipara, while holding juvenile density constant. Adult density affected juveniles, but not adults, in line with inter-class competition. High adult density led to lower juvenile survival and growth before hibernation. In contrast, juvenile survival after hibernation was higher in populations with high adult density, pointing to relaxed inter-class competition. As a result, annual survival was not affected by adult density, showing that differences in pre- and post-hibernation survival balanced each other out. The intensity of inter-class competition affected reproduction, performance, and body size in juveniles. Path analyses unravelled direct treatment effects on early growth (pre-hibernation) and no direct treatment effects on the parameters measured after hibernation. This points to allometry of treatment-induced differences in early growth, and it suggests that inter-class competition mainly affects the early growth of the competitively inferior class and thereby their future performance and reproduction. These results are in contrast with previous findings and, together with results in marine fish, suggest that the strength and direction of density dependence may depend on the degree of inter-class competition, and thus on the availability of resources used by the competing classes.

Urban characteristics attributable to density-driven tie formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Wei; Ghoshal, Gourab; Krumme, Coco; Cebrian, Manuel; Pentland, Alex

2013-06-01

Motivated by empirical evidence on the interplay between geography, population density and societal interaction, we propose a generative process for the evolution of social structure in cities. Our analytical and simulation results predict both super-linear scaling of social-tie density and information contagion as a function of the population. Here we demonstrate that our model provides a robust and accurate fit for the dependency of city characteristics with city-size, ranging from individual-level dyadic interactions (number of acquaintances, volume of communication) to population level variables (contagious disease rates, patenting activity, economic productivity and crime) without the need to appeal to heterogeneity, modularity, specialization or hierarchy.

Can intense predation by bears exert a depensatory effect on recruitment in a Pacific salmon population?

PubMed

Quinn, Thomas P; Cunningham, Curry J; Randall, Jessica; Hilborn, Ray

2014-10-01

It has long been recognized that, as populations increase in density, ecological processes affecting growth and survival reduce per capita recruitment in the next generation. In contrast to the evidence for such "compensatory" density dependence, the alternative "depensatory" process (reduced per capita recruitment at low density) has proven more difficult to demonstrate in the field. To test for such depensation, we measured the spawner-recruit relationship over five decades for a sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) population in Alaska breeding in high-quality, unaltered habitat. Twenty-five years of detailed estimates of predation by brown bears, Ursus arctos, revealed strong density dependence in predation rate; the bears killed ca. 80% of the salmon in years of low salmon spawning abundance. Nevertheless, the reconstructed spawner-recruit relationship, adjusted to include salmon intercepted in the commercial fishery, provided no evidence of demographic depensation. That is, in years when few salmon returned and the great majority were killed by bears, the few that spawned were successful enough that the population remained highly productive, even when those killed by bears were included as potential spawners. We conclude that the high quality of breeding habitat at this site and the productive nature of semelparous Pacific salmon allowed this population to avoid the hypothesized depressed recruitment from depensatory processes expected at low density. The observed lack of demographic depensation is encouraging from a conservation standpoint because it implies that depleted populations may have the potential to rebound successfully given suitable spawning and rearing habitat, even in the presence of strong predation pressure.

Influences on Bythotrephes longimanus life-history characteristics in the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pothoven, Steven A.; Vanderploeg, Henry A.; Warner, David M.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Nalepa, Thomas F.

2012-01-01

We compared Bythotrephes population demographics and dynamics to predator (planktivorous fish) and prey (small-bodied crustacean zooplankton) densities at a site sampled through the growing season in Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie. Although seasonal average densities of Bythotrephes were similar across lakes (222/m2 Erie, 247/m2 Huron, 162/m2 Michigan), temporal trends in abundance differed among lakes. In central Lake Erie where Bythotrephes' prey assemblage was dominated by small individuals (60%), where planktivorous fish densities were high (14,317/ha), and where a shallow water column limited availability of a deepwater refuge, the Bythotrephes population was characterized by a small mean body size, large broods with small neonates, allocation of length increases mainly to the spine rather than to the body, and a late summer population decline. By contrast, in Lake Michigan where Bythotrephes' prey assemblage was dominated by large individuals (72%) and planktivorous fish densities were lower (5052/ha), the Bythotrephes population was characterized by a large mean body size (i.e., 37–55% higher than in Erie), small broods with large neonates, nearly all growth in body length occurring between instars 1 and 2, and population persistence into fall. Life-history characteristics in Lake Huron tended to be intermediate to those found in Lakes Michigan and Erie, reflecting lower overall prey and predator densities (1224/ha) relative to the other lakes. Because plasticity in life history can affect interactions with other species, our findings point to the need to understand life-history variation among Great Lakes populations to improve our ability to model the dynamics of these ecosystems.

Temporal changes in kin structure through a population cycle in a territorial bird, the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus.

PubMed

Piertney, Stuart B; Lambin, Xavier; Maccoll, Andrew D C; Lock, Kerry; Bacon, Philip J; Dallas, John F; Leckie, Fiona; Mougeot, Francois; Racey, Paul A; Redpath, Steve; Moss, Robert

2008-05-01

Populations of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) undergo regular multiannual cycles in abundance. The 'kinship hypothesis' posits that such cycles are caused by changes in kin structure among territorial males producing delayed density-dependent changes in aggressiveness, which in turn influence recruitment and regulate density. The kinship hypothesis makes several specific predictions about the levels of kinship, aggressiveness and recruitment through a population cycle: (i) kin structure will build up during the increase phase of a cycle, but break down prior to peak density; (ii) kin structure influences aggressiveness, such that there will be a negative relationship between kinship and aggressiveness over the years; (iii) as aggressiveness regulates recruitment and density, there will be a negative relationship between aggressiveness in one year and both recruitment and density in the next; (iv) as kin structure influences recruitment via an affect on aggressiveness, there will be a positive relationship between kinship in one year and recruitment the next. Here we test these predictions through the course of an 8-year cycle in a natural population of red grouse in northeast Scotland, using microsatellite DNA markers to resolve changing patterns of kin structure, and supra-orbital comb height of grouse as an index of aggressiveness. Both kin structure and aggressiveness were dynamic through the course of the cycle, and changing patterns were entirely consistent with the expectations of the kinship hypothesis. Results are discussed in relation to potential drivers of population regulation and implications of dynamic kin structure for population genetics.

Land Use as a Driver of Patterns of Rodenticide Exposure in Modeled Kit Fox Populations

PubMed Central

Nogeire, Theresa M.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Schumaker, Nathan H.; Cypher, Brian L.; Phillips, Scott E.

2015-01-01

Although rodenticides are increasingly regulated, they nonetheless cause poisonings in many non-target wildlife species. Second-generation anticoagulant rodenticide use is common in agricultural and residential landscapes. Here, we use an individual-based population model to assess potential population-wide effects of rodenticide exposures on the endangered San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica). We estimate likelihood of rodenticide exposure across the species range for each land cover type based on a database of reported pesticide use and literature. Using a spatially-explicit population model, we find that 36% of modeled kit foxes are likely exposed, resulting in a 7-18% decline in the range-wide modeled kit fox population that can be linked to rodenticide use. Exposures of kit foxes in low-density developed areas accounted for 70% of the population-wide exposures to rodenticides. We conclude that exposures of non-target kit foxes could be greatly mitigated by reducing the use of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides in low-density developed areas near vulnerable populations. PMID:26244655

Loss of migration and urbanization in birds: a case study of the blackbird (Turdus merula).

PubMed

Møller, Anders Pape; Jokimäki, Jukka; Skorka, Piotr; Tryjanowski, Piotr

2014-07-01

Many organisms have invaded urban habitats, although the underlying factors initially promoting urbanization remain poorly understood. Partial migration may facilitate urbanization because such populations benefit from surplus food in urban environments during winter, and hence enjoy reduced fitness costs of migratory deaths. We tested this hypothesis in the European blackbird Turdus merula, which has been urbanized since the 19th century, by compiling information on timing of urbanization, migratory status, and population density for 99 cities across the continent. Timing of urbanization was spatially auto-correlated at scales up to 600 km. Analyses of timing of urbanization revealed that urbanization occurred earlier in partially migratory and resident populations than in migratory populations of blackbirds. Independently, this effect was most pronounced in the range of the distribution that currently has the highest population density, suggesting that urbanization facilitated population growth. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that timing of urbanization is facilitated by partial migration, resulting in subsequent residency and population growth.

Population Growth and a Sustainable Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mortimore, Michael; Tiffen, Mary

1994-01-01

Provides a history of farming practices in a densely populated area of Kenya where a recent study of the resource management practices showed positive, not negative, influences of increasing population density on both environmental conservation and productivity. (LZ)

Detection of density dependence requires density manipulations and calculation of lambda.

PubMed

Fowler, N L; Overath, R Deborah; Pease, Craig M

2006-03-01

To investigate density-dependent population regulation in the perennial bunchgrass Bouteloua rigidiseta, we experimentally manipulated density by removing adults or adding seeds to replicate quadrats in a natural population for three annual intervals. We monitored the adjacent control quadrats for 14 annual intervals. We constructed a population projection matrix for each quadrat in each interval, calculated lambda, and did a life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis. We tested the effects of density upon lambda by comparing experimental and control quadrats, and by an analysis of the 15-year observational data set. As measured by effects on lambda and on N(t+1/Nt in the experimental treatments, negative density dependence was strong: the population was being effectively regulated. The relative contributions of different matrix elements to treatment effect on lambda differed among years and treatments; overall the pattern was one of small contributions by many different life cycle stages. In contrast, density dependence could not be detected using only the observational (control quadrats) data, even though this data set covered a much longer time span. Nor did experimental effects on separate matrix elements reach statistical significance. These results suggest that ecologists may fail to detect density dependence when it is present if they have only descriptive, not experimental, data, do not have data for the entire life cycle, or analyze life cycle components separately.

High population density of black-handed spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) in Costa Rican lowland wet forest.

PubMed

Weghorst, Jennifer A

2007-04-01

The main objective of this study was to estimate the population density and demographic structure of spider monkeys living in wet forest in the vicinity of Sirena Biological Station, Corcovado National Park, Costa Rica. Results of a 14-month line-transect survey showed that spider monkeys of Sirena have one of the highest population densities ever recorded for this genus. Density estimates varied, however, depending on the method chosen to estimate transect width. Data from behavioral monitoring were available to compare density estimates derived from the survey, providing a check of the survey's accuracy. A combination of factors has most probably contributed to the high density of Ateles, including habitat protection within a national park and high diversity of trees of the fig family, Moraceae. Although natural densities of spider monkeys at Sirena are substantially higher than those recorded at most other sites and in previous studies at this site, mean subgroup size and age ratios were similar to those determined in previous studies. Sex ratios were similar to those of other sites with high productivity. Although high densities of preferred fruit trees in the wet, productive forests of Sirena may support a dense population of spider monkeys, other demographic traits recorded at Sirena fall well within the range of values recorded elsewhere for the species.

Native intra- and inter-specific reactions may cause the paradox of pest control with harvesting.

PubMed

Seno, Hiromi

2010-05-01

We analyse a general time-discrete mathematical model of host-parasite population dynamics with harvesting, in which the host can be regarded as a pest. We harvest a portion of the host population at a moment in each year. Our model involves the density effect on the host population. We investigate the condition in which the harvesting of the host results in a paradoxical increase of its equilibrium population size. Our results imply that for a family of pest-enemy systems, the paradox of pest control could be caused essentially by the interspecific relationship and the intraspecific density effect.

An Evaluation of Population Density Mapping and Built up Area Estimates in Sri Lanka Using Multiple Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engstrom, R.; Soundararajan, V.; Newhouse, D.

2017-12-01

In this study we examine how well multiple population density and built up estimates that utilize satellite data compare in Sri Lanka. The population relationship is examined at the Gram Niladhari (GN) level, the lowest administrative unit in Sri Lanka from the 2011 census. For this study we have two spatial domains, the whole country and a 3,500km2 sub-sample, for which we have complete high spatial resolution imagery coverage. For both the entire country and the sub-sample we examine how consistent are the existing publicly available measures of population constructed from satellite imagery at predicting population density? For just the sub-sample we examine how well do a suite of values derived from high spatial resolution satellite imagery predict population density and how does our built up area estimate compare to other publicly available estimates. Population measures were obtained from the Sri Lankan census, and were downloaded from Facebook, WorldPoP, GPW, and Landscan. Percentage built-up area at the GN level was calculated from three sources: Facebook, Global Urban Footprint (GUF), and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). For the sub-sample we have derived a variety of indicators from the high spatial resolution imagery. Using deep learning convolutional neural networks, an object oriented, and a non-overlapping block, spatial feature approach. Variables calculated include: cars, shadows (a proxy for building height), built up area, and buildings, roof types, roads, type of agriculture, NDVI, Pantex, and Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) and others. Results indicate that population estimates are accurate at the higher, DS Division level but not necessarily at the GN level. Estimates from Facebook correlated well with census population (GN correlation of 0.91) but measures from GPW and WorldPop are more weakly correlated (0.64 and 0.34). Estimates of built-up area appear to be reliable. In the 32 DSD-subsample, Facebook's built- up area measure is highly correlated with our built-up measure (correlation of 0.9). Preliminary regression results based on variables selected from Lasso-regressions indicate that satellite indicators have exceptionally strong predictive power in predicting GN level population level and density with an out of sample r-squared of 0.75 and 0.72 respectively.

Genotype imputation in a tropical crossbred dairy cattle population.

PubMed

Oliveira Júnior, Gerson A; Chud, Tatiane C S; Ventura, Ricardo V; Garrick, Dorian J; Cole, John B; Munari, Danísio P; Ferraz, José B S; Mullart, Erik; DeNise, Sue; Smith, Shannon; da Silva, Marcos Vinícius G B

2017-12-01

The objective of this study was to investigate different strategies for genotype imputation in a population of crossbred Girolando (Gyr × Holstein) dairy cattle. The data set consisted of 478 Girolando, 583 Gyr, and 1,198 Holstein sires genotyped at high density with the Illumina BovineHD (Illumina, San Diego, CA) panel, which includes ∼777K markers. The accuracy of imputation from low (20K) and medium densities (50K and 70K) to the HD panel density and from low to 50K density were investigated. Seven scenarios using different reference populations (RPop) considering Girolando, Gyr, and Holstein breeds separately or combinations of animals of these breeds were tested for imputing genotypes of 166 randomly chosen Girolando animals. The population genotype imputation were performed using FImpute. Imputation accuracy was measured as the correlation between observed and imputed genotypes (CORR) and also as the proportion of genotypes that were imputed correctly (CR). This is the first paper on imputation accuracy in a Girolando population. The sample-specific imputation accuracies ranged from 0.38 to 0.97 (CORR) and from 0.49 to 0.96 (CR) imputing from low and medium densities to HD, and 0.41 to 0.95 (CORR) and from 0.50 to 0.94 (CR) for imputation from 20K to 50K. The CORR anim exceeded 0.96 (for 50K and 70K panels) when only Girolando animals were included in RPop (S1). We found smaller CORR anim when Gyr (S2) was used instead of Holstein (S3) as RPop. The same behavior was observed between S4 (Gyr + Girolando) and S5 (Holstein + Girolando) because the target animals were more related to the Holstein population than to the Gyr population. The highest imputation accuracies were observed for scenarios including Girolando animals in the reference population, whereas using only Gyr animals resulted in low imputation accuracies, suggesting that the haplotypes segregating in the Girolando population had a greater effect on accuracy than the purebred haplotypes. All chromosomes had similar imputation accuracies (CORR snp ) within each scenario. Crossbred animals (Girolando) must be included in the reference population to provide the best imputation accuracies. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative hi-density intraspecific linkage mapping using three elite populations from common parents

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

High-density linkage maps are fundamental to contemporary organismal research and scientific approaches to genetic improvement, especially in paleopolyploids with exceptionally complex genomes, e.g., Upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L., 2n=52). Using 3 full-sib intra-specific mapping populations fr...

Using ecology to inform physiology studies: implications of high population density in the laboratory.

PubMed

Newman, Amy E M; Edmunds, Nicholas B; Ferraro, Shannon; Heffell, Quentin; Merritt, Gillian M; Pakkala, Jesse J; Schilling, Cory R; Schorno, Sarah

2015-03-15

Conspecific density is widely recognized as an important ecological factor across the animal kingdom; however, the physiological impacts are less thoroughly described. In fact, population density is rarely mentioned as a factor in physiological studies on captive animals and, when it is infrequently addressed, the animals used are reared and housed at densities far above those in nature, making the translation of results from the laboratory to natural systems difficult. We survey the literature to highlight this important ecophysiological gap and bring attention to the possibility that conspecific density prior to experimentation may be a critical factor influencing results. Across three taxa: mammals, birds, and fish, we present evidence from ecology that density influences glucocorticoid levels, immune function, and body condition with the intention of stimulating discussion and increasing consideration of population density in physiology studies. We conclude with several directives to improve the applicability of insights gained in the laboratory to organisms in the natural environment. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Land development, land use, and urban sprawl in Puerto Rico integrating remote sensing and population census data.

Treesearch

Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez

2007-01-01

The island of Puerto Rico has both a high population density and a long history of ineffective land use planning. This study integrates geospatial technology and population census data to understand how people use and develop the lands. We define three new regions for Puerto Rico: Urban (16%), Densely Populated Rural (36%), and Sparsely Populated Rural (48%). Eleven...

Case history of population change in a Bacillus thuringiensis-treated vs. an untreated outbreak of the western spruce budworm.

Treesearch

R.R. Mason; H.G. Paul

1996-01-01

Larval densities of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) were monitored for 12 years (1984-95) on permanent sample plots in northeastern Oregon. The time series spanned a period of general budworm infestations when populations increased rapidly from low densities, plateaued for a time at high-outbreak densities, and then declined suddenly....

Density estimation using the trapping web design: A geometric analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.

1994-01-01

Population densities for small mammal and arthropod populations can be estimated using capture frequencies for a web of traps. A conceptually simple geometric analysis that avoid the need to estimate a point on a density function is proposed. This analysis incorporates data from the outermost rings of traps, explaining large capture frequencies in these rings rather than truncating them from the analysis.

Comparison of Drive Counts and Mark-Resight As Methods of Population Size Estimation of Highly Dense Sika Deer (Cervus nippon) Populations

PubMed Central

Takeshita, Kazutaka; Yoshida, Tsuyoshi; Igota, Hiromasa; Matsuura, Yukiko

2016-01-01

Assessing temporal changes in abundance indices is an important issue in the management of large herbivore populations. The drive counts method has been frequently used as a deer abundance index in mountainous regions. However, despite an inherent risk for observation errors in drive counts, which increase with deer density, evaluations of the utility of drive counts at a high deer density remain scarce. We compared the drive counts and mark-resight (MR) methods in the evaluation of a highly dense sika deer population (MR estimates ranged between 11 and 53 individuals/km2) on Nakanoshima Island, Hokkaido, Japan, between 1999 and 2006. This deer population experienced two large reductions in density; approximately 200 animals in total were taken from the population through a large-scale population removal and a separate winter mass mortality event. Although the drive counts tracked temporal changes in deer abundance on the island, they overestimated the counts for all years in comparison to the MR method. Increased overestimation in drive count estimates after the winter mass mortality event may be due to a double count derived from increased deer movement and recovery of body condition secondary to the mitigation of density-dependent food limitations. Drive counts are unreliable because they are affected by unfavorable factors such as bad weather, and they are cost-prohibitive to repeat, which precludes the calculation of confidence intervals. Therefore, the use of drive counts to infer the deer abundance needs to be reconsidered. PMID:27711181

Thyroid dysfunction in an adult female population: A population-based study of Latin American Vertebral Osteoporosis Study (LAVOS) - Puerto Rico site.

PubMed

González-Rodríguez, Loida A; Felici-Giovanini, Marcos E; Haddock, Lillian

2013-06-01

To determine the prevalence of hypothyroidism in an adult female population in Puerto Rico and to determine the relationship between hypothyroidism, bone mineral density and vertebral and non-vertebral fractures in this population. Data from the 400 subjects' database of the Latin American Vertebral Osteoporosis Study (LAVOS), Puerto Rico site was reviewed. Patient's medical history, anthropometric data, current medications, laboratories, and DXA results was extracted. Subjects with thyroid dysfunction were identified based on their previous medical history and levels of TSH. Bone Mineral Density was classified using the World Health Organization criteria. Crude prevalence of thyroid dysfunction were estimated with a confidence of 95% and weighted by the population distribution by age, according to the distribution by age group in the 2000 census. Bone mineral densities and prevalence of vertebral and non-vertebral fractures were compared among the groups. The weighted prevalence of hyperthyroidism in this population was 0.0043% (95% CI: -0.0021%, 0.0107%). The weighted prevalence of hypothyroidism was 24.2% (95% CI: 19.9%, 28.4%). Increased prevalence of hypothyroidism was found in participants 70 years or older. The mean BMD at spine, hip and femoral neck was similar among the groups. No difference in the proportion of participants with vertebral and non-vertebral fractures was found among the groups. Our study found a high prevalence of hypothyroidism among adult postmenopausal females in Puerto Rico. No association between hypothyroidism and decreased bone mineral densities, vertebral or non-vertebral fractures was found in this population.

Density of surgeons is significantly associated with reduced risk of deaths from motor vehicle crashes in US counties.

PubMed

Chang, David C; Eastman, Brent; Talamini, Mark A; Osen, Hayley B; Tran Cao, Hop S; Coimbra, Raul

2011-05-01

The concept of surgery and public health has been introduced in recent years, highlighting the impact of surgeons on improving public health outcomes, a relationship that has traditionally been ascribed to general practitioners. The purpose of this study is to quantify the effect of surgeon availability on deaths from motor vehicle crashes (MVC). Retrospective analysis of the Area Resource File from 2006 was performed. The primary outcome variable was the three-year (2001-2003) average in MVC deaths per 1 million population for each county. The primary independent variable was the density of surgeons per 1 million population in year 2003. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed, adjusting for density of general practitioners, urbanicity of the county, and socioeconomic status of the county. A total of 3,225 counties were analyzed. The median number of MVC deaths per million population was 226 (IQR 158-320). The median number of surgeon per million population was 55 (IQR 0-105), while the median number of general practitioners per million population was 424 (IQR 274-620). On unadjusted analysis, each increase of one surgeon per million population was associated with 0.38 fewer MVC deaths per million population (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, each increase of one surgeon per million population was significantly associated with 0.16 fewer MVC deaths per million population (p < 0.001). Rural location, persistent poverty, and low educational level were all associated with significant increases in MVC deaths. Higher density of surgeons is associated with significant reduction in deaths from MVCs. This highlights the need for 1) consideration of surgery as primary care and 2) development of inclusive surgical systems designed to provide care commensurate with patients' degree of injury. Copyright © 2011 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.