Science.gov

Sample records for population dynamics approach

  1. Computer Assisted Instruction of Population Dynamics: A New Approach to Population Education. Report No. T-19.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klaff, Vivian; Handler, Paul

    Available on the University of Illinois PLATO IV Computer system, the Population Dynamic Group computer-aided instruction program for teaching population dynamics is described and explained. The computer-generated visual graphics enable fast and intuitive understanding of the dynamics of population and of the concepts and data of population. The…

  2. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    PubMed

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities.

  3. Optimum survival strategies against zombie infestations - a population dynamics approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mota, Bruno

    2014-03-01

    We model a zombie infestation by three coupled ODEs that jointly describe the time evolution of three populations: regular humans, zombies, and survivors (humans that have survived at least one zombie encounter). This can be generalized to take into account more levels of expertise and/or skill degradation. We compute the fixed points, and stability thereof, that correspond to one of three possible outcomes: human extinction, zombie extermination or, if one allows for a human non-zero birth-rate, co-habitation. We obtain analytically the optimum strategy for humans in terms of the model's parameters (essentially, whether to flee and hide, or fight). Zombies notwithstanding, this can also be seen as a toy model for infections of immune system cells, such as CD4+ T cells in AIDS, and macrophages in tuberculosis, whereby cells are both the target of infection, and mediate the acquired immunity response against the same infection. I thank FAPERJ for financial support.

  4. The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

    2017-06-01

    Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

  5. Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Juliano, Steven A.

    2007-01-01

    This chapter reviews aspects of population dynamics that may be conceptually important for biological control of mosquitoes. Density dependent population regulation among immature stages has important implications for biological control of mosquito populations, primarily because it can lead to compensatory or overcompensatory mortality due to additions of a biological control agent. This can result in control efforts leading to no change in the target population, or actual increases in the target population, respectively. Density dependent effects, and compensatory or overcompensatory mortality, appear to be most common in mosquitoes from container or highly ephemeral habitats. In permanent ground water habitats generalist predators appear to limit mosquito populations and so render mortality additive. Thus, biological control in permanent ground water habitats seems to have the highest likelihood of producing a satisfactory result. A central premise of classical biological control is that pest populations are reduced by enemies to stable equilibrium levels that are both below the pre-control equilibrium level, and well below the level producing detrimental effects. This premise results in predictions that successful biological control is likely to involve specialist enemies (usually parasitoids), with short generation times relative to the victim, high rates of successful search, rapid rates of increase, and needing only a few victims to complete their life cycle. These predictions largely fail for mosquito systems, in which successful biological control seems to be associated with generalist enemies that can kill a large portion of the target population, often causing local extinction, and can persist in the absence of the target organism. Biological control of mosquitoes appears to be inherently unstable, thus contrasting sharply with classical biological control. This review suggests a need for better data on density dependent regulation of mosquito populations

  6. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  7. An equation-free approach to analyzing heterogeneous cell population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bold, Katherine A; Zou, Yu; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G; Henson, Michael A

    2007-09-01

    We propose a computational approach to modeling the collective dynamics of populations of coupled, heterogeneous biological oscillators. We consider the synchronization of yeast glycolytic oscillators coupled by the membrane exchange of an intracellular metabolite; the heterogeneity consists of a single random parameter, which accounts for glucose influx into each cell. In contrast to Monte Carlo simulations, distributions of intracellular species of these yeast cells are represented by a few leading order generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) coefficients, thus reducing the dynamics of an ensemble of oscillators to dynamics of their (typically significantly fewer) representative gPC coefficients. Equation-free (EF) methods are employed to efficiently evolve this coarse description in time and compute the coarse-grained stationary state and/or limit cycle solutions, circumventing the derivation of explicit, closed-form evolution equations. Coarse projective integration and fixed-point algorithms are used to compute collective oscillatory solutions for the cell population and quantify their stability. These techniques are extended to the special case of a "rogue" oscillator; a cell sufficiently different from the rest "escapes" the bulk synchronized behavior and oscillates with a markedly different amplitude. The approach holds promise for accelerating the computer-assisted analysis of detailed models of coupled heterogeneous cell or agent populations.

  8. Modeling the Population Dynamics of Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria:. AN Agent-Based Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, James T.; Walshe, Ray; Devocelle, Marc

    The response of bacterial populations to antibiotic treatment is often a function of a diverse range of interacting factors. In order to develop strategies to minimize the spread of antibiotic resistance in pathogenic bacteria, a sound theoretical understanding of the systems of interactions taking place within a colony must be developed. The agent-based approach to modeling bacterial populations is a useful tool for relating data obtained at the molecular and cellular level with the overall population dynamics. Here we demonstrate an agent-based model, called Micro-Gen, which has been developed to simulate the growth and development of bacterial colonies in culture. The model also incorporates biochemical rules and parameters describing the kinetic interactions of bacterial cells with antibiotic molecules. Simulations were carried out to replicate the development of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) colonies growing in the presence of antibiotics. The model was explored to see how the properties of the system emerge from the interactions of the individual bacterial agents in order to achieve a better mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics taking place. Micro-Gen provides a good theoretical framework for investigating the effects of local environmental conditions and cellular properties on the response of bacterial populations to antibiotic exposure in the context of a simulated environment.

  9. Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect

    Hyman, James M; Restrepo, Juan M; Rael, Rosalyn C

    2009-01-01

    We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.

  10. Sensitivity of Anopheles gambiae population dynamics to meteo-hydrological variability: a mechanistic approach

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Mechanistic models play an important role in many biological disciplines, and they can effectively contribute to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of mosquito populations, in the light of the increasing knowledge of the crucial driving role on vector dynamics played by meteo-climatic features as well as other physical-biological characteristics of the landscape. Methods In malaria eco-epidemiology landscape components (atmosphere, water bodies, land use) interact with the epidemiological system (interacting populations of vector, human, and parasite). In the background of the eco-epidemiological approach, a mosquito population model is here proposed to evaluate the sensitivity of An. gambiae s.s. population to some peculiar thermal-pluviometric scenarios. The scenarios are obtained perturbing meteorological time series data referred to four Kenyan sites (Nairobi, Nyabondo, Kibwesi, and Malindi) representing four different eco-epidemiological settings. Results Simulations highlight a strong dependence of mosquito population abundance on temperature variation with well-defined site-specific patterns. The upper extreme of thermal perturbation interval (+ 3°C) gives rise to an increase in adult population abundance at Nairobi (+111%) and Nyabondo (+61%), and a decrease at Kibwezi (-2%) and Malindi (-36%). At the lower extreme perturbation (-3°C) is observed a reduction in both immature and adult mosquito population in three sites (Nairobi -74%, Nyabondo -66%, Kibwezi -39%), and an increase in Malindi (+11%). A coherent non-linear pattern of population variation emerges. The maximum rate of variation is +30% population abundance for +1°C of temperature change, but also almost null and negative values are obtained. Mosquitoes are less sensitive to rainfall and both adults and immature populations display a positive quasi-linear response pattern to rainfall variation. Conclusions The non-linear temperature-dependent response is in agreement with the

  11. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Rose, Amy N; Liu, Cheng; Urban, Marie L; Stewart, Robert N

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  12. T→0 mean-field population dynamics approach for the random 3 -satisfiability problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Haijun

    2008-06-01

    During the past decade, phase-transition phenomena in the random 3-satisfiability ( 3 -SAT) problem has been intensively studied by statistical physics methods. In this work, we study the random 3 -SAT problem by the mean-field first-step replica-symmetry-broken cavity theory at the limit of temperature T→0 . The reweighting parameter y of the cavity theory is allowed to approach infinity together with the inverse temperature β with fixed ratio r=y/β . Focusing on the system’s space of satisfiable configurations, we carry out extensive population dynamics simulations using the technique of importance sampling, and we obtain the entropy density s(r) and complexity Σ(r) of zero-energy clusters at different r values. We demonstrate that the population dynamics may reach different fixed points with different types of initial conditions. By knowing the trends of s(r) and Σ(r) with r , we can judge whether a certain type of initial condition is appropriate at a given r value. This work complements and confirms the results of several other very recent theoretical studies.

  13. Dynamics and recovery of a sediment-exposed Chironomus riparius population: A modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Diepens, Noël J; Beltman, Wim H J; Koelmans, Albert A; Van den Brink, Paul J; Baveco, Johannes M

    2016-06-01

    Models can be used to assess long-term risks of sediment-bound contaminants at the population level. However, these models usually lack the coupling between chemical fate in the sediment, toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic processes in individuals and propagation of individual-level effects to the population. We developed a population model that includes all these processes, and used it to assess the importance of chemical uptake routes on a Chironomus riparius population after pulsed exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos. We show that particle ingestion is an important additional exposure pathway affecting C. riparius population dynamics and recovery. Models ignoring particle ingestion underestimate the impact and the required recovery times, which implies that they underestimate risks of sediment-bound chemicals. Additional scenario studies showed the importance of selecting the biologically relevant sediment layer and showed population effects in the long term.

  14. A continuous ideal free distribution approach to the dynamics of selfish, cooperative and kleptoparasitic populations

    PubMed Central

    Reding, Ilona; Kelley, Michael; Rychtář, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Population distributions depend upon the aggregate behavioural responses of individuals to a range of environmental factors. We extend a model of ideally motivated populations to describe the local and regional consequences of interactions between three populations distinguished by their levels of cooperation and exploitation. Inspired by the classic prisoner's dilemma game, stereotypical fitness functions describe a baseline non-cooperative population whose per capita fitness decreases with density, obligate co-operators who initially benefit from the presence of conspecifics, and kleptoparasites who require heterospecifics to extract resources from the environment. We examine these populations in multiple combinations, determine where both local and regional coexistence is permitted, and investigate conditions under which one population will invade another. When they invade co-operators in resource-rich areas, kleptoparasites initiate a dynamic instability that leads to the loss of both populations; however, selfish hosts, who can persist at low densities, are immune to this risk. Furthermore, adaptive movement may delay the onset of instability as dispersal relieves dynamic stress. Selfish and cooperative populations default to mutual exclusion, but asymmetric variations in interference strength may relax this condition and permit limited sympatry within the environment. Distinct sub-communities characterize the overall spatial structure. PMID:28018667

  15. Integrating population dynamics models and distance sampling data: a spatial hierarchical state-space approach.

    PubMed

    Nadeem, Khurram; Moore, Jeffrey E; Zhang, Ying; Chipman, Hugh

    2016-07-01

    Stochastic versions of Gompertz, Ricker, and various other dynamics models play a fundamental role in quantifying strength of density dependence and studying long-term dynamics of wildlife populations. These models are frequently estimated using time series of abundance estimates that are inevitably subject to observation error and missing data. This issue can be addressed with a state-space modeling framework that jointly estimates the observed data model and the underlying stochastic population dynamics (SPD) model. In cases where abundance data are from multiple locations with a smaller spatial resolution (e.g., from mark-recapture and distance sampling studies), models are conventionally fitted to spatially pooled estimates of yearly abundances. Here, we demonstrate that a spatial version of SPD models can be directly estimated from short time series of spatially referenced distance sampling data in a unified hierarchical state-space modeling framework that also allows for spatial variance (covariance) in population growth. We also show that a full range of likelihood based inference, including estimability diagnostics and model selection, is feasible in this class of models using a data cloning algorithm. We further show through simulation experiments that the hierarchical state-space framework introduced herein efficiently captures the underlying dynamical parameters and spatial abundance distribution. We apply our methodology by analyzing a time series of line-transect distance sampling data for fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) off the U.S. west coast. Although there were only seven surveys conducted during the study time frame, 1991-2014, our analysis detected presence of strong density regulation and provided reliable estimates of fin whale densities. In summary, we show that the integrative framework developed herein allows ecologists to better infer key population characteristics such as presence of density regulation and spatial variability in a

  16. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

    PubMed

    Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

    2010-05-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  17. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  18. Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

    PubMed

    Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

    2014-04-01

    Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be

  19. Dynamics of organic matter and microbial populations in amended soil: a multidisciplinary approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gigliotti, Giovanni; Pezzolla, Daniela; Zadra, Claudia; Albertini, Emidio; Marconi, Gianpiero; Turchetti, Benedetta; Buzzini, Pietro

    2013-04-01

    The application of organic amendments to soils, such as pig slurry, sewage sludge and compost is considered a tool for improving soil fertility and enhancing C stock. The addition of these different organic materials allows a good supply of nutrients for plants but also contributes to C sequestration, affects the microbial activity and the transformation of soil organic matter (SOM). Moreover, the addition of organic amendment has gained importance as a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and then as a cause of the "Global Warming". Therefore, it is important to investigate the factors controlling the SOM mineralization in order to improve soil C sequestration and decreasing at the same time the GHG emissions. The quality of organic matter added to the soil will play an important role in these dynamics, affecting the microbial activity and the changes in microbial community structure. A laboratory, multidisciplinary experiment was carried out to test the effect of the amendment by anaerobic digested livestock-derived organic materials on labile organic matter evolution and on dynamics of microbial population, this latter both in terms of consistence of microbial biomass, as well as in terms of microbial biodiversity. Different approaches were used to study the microbial community structure: chemical (CO2 fluxes, WEOC, C-biomass, PLFA), microbiological (microbial enumeration) and molecular (DNA extraction and Roche 454, Next Generation Sequencing, NGS). The application of fresh digestate, derived from the anaerobic treatment of animal wastes, affected the short-term dynamics of microbial community, as reflected by the increase of CO2 emissions immediately after the amendment compared to the control soil. This is probably due to the addition of easily available C added with the digestate, demonstrating that this organic material was only partially stabilized by the anaerobic process. In fact, the digestate contained a high amounts of available C, which led to

  20. The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native hawaiian birds: A modeling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, M.D.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Decastro, F.; Ahumada, J.A.; Lapointe, D.A.; Atkinson, C.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Hart, P.J.; Duffy, D.C.

    2011-01-01

    We developed an epidemiological model of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) across an altitudinal gradient on the island of Hawaii that includes the dynamics of the host, vector, and parasite. This introduced mosquito-borne disease is hypothesized to have contributed to extinctions and major shifts in the altitudinal distribution of highly susceptible native forest birds. Our goal was to better understand how biotic and abiotic factors influence the intensity of malaria transmission and impact on susceptible populations of native Hawaiian forest birds. Our model illustrates key patterns in the malaria-forest bird system: high malaria transmission in low-elevation forests with minor seasonal or annual variation in infection;episodic transmission in mid-elevation forests with site-to-site, seasonal, and annual variation depending on mosquito dynamics;and disease refugia in high-elevation forests with only slight risk of infection during summer. These infection patterns are driven by temperature and rainfall effects on parasite incubation period and mosquito dynamics across an elevational gradient and the availability of larval habitat, especially in mid-elevation forests. The results from our model suggest that disease is likely a key factor in causing population decline or restricting the distribution of many susceptible Hawaiian species and preventing the recovery of other vulnerable species. The model also provides a framework for the evaluation of factors influencing disease transmission and alternative disease control programs, and to evaluate the impact of climate change on disease cycles and bird populations. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  1. Dynamics and forecasting of population growth and urban expansion in Srinagar City - A Geospatial Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farooq, M.; Muslim, M.

    2014-11-01

    The urban areas of developing countries are densely populated and need the use of sophisticated monitoring systems, such as remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). The urban sprawl of a city is best understood by studying the dynamics of LULC change which can be easily generated by using sequential satellite images, required for the prediction of urban growth. Multivariate statistical techniques and regression models have been used to establish the relationship between the urban growth and its causative factors and for forecast of the population growth and urban expansion. In Srinagar city, one of the fastest growing metropolitan cities situated in Jammu and Kashmir State of India, sprawl is taking its toll on the natural resources at an alarming pace. The present study was carried over a period of 40 years (1971-2011), to understand the dynamics of spatial and temporal variability of urban sprawl. The results reveal that built-up area has increased by 585.08 % while as the population has increased by 214.75 %. The forecast showed an increase of 246.84 km2 in built-up area which exceeds the overall carrying capacity of the city. The most common conversions were also evaluated.

  2. A field-theoretic approach to the May-Leonard cyclic population dynamics model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serrao, Shannon; Täuber, Uwe

    Spatially extended stochastic population dynamics models with cyclic predation interactions display intriguing time evolution and spontaneous structure formation. We study a version of the May-Leonard cyclic competition model in d dimensions with diffusive particle propagation. We use the second-quantized Doi-Peliti formalism and ensuing coherent-state path integral representation to construct its continuum representation and explore its collective dynamics. Expanding the resulting action about the mean-field species concentrations enables us to compute the diagonalized harmonic propagators and hence 'masses', i.e., relaxation rates and eigenfrequencies of the fundamental modes. Furthermore, operating near the Hopf bifurcation point, we identify the validity range for the necessary time scale separation that allows us to project out the purely relaxing eigenmode. The remaining oscillating fields obey the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation, which is consistent with spiral pattern formation.

  3. A phenomenological approach to the simulation of metabolism and proliferation dynamics of large tumour cell populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chignola, Roberto; Milotti, Edoardo

    2005-03-01

    A major goal of modern computational biology is to simulate the collective behaviour of large cell populations starting from the intricate web of molecular interactions occurring at the microscopic level. In this paper we describe a simplified model of cell metabolism, growth and proliferation, suitable for inclusion in a multicell simulator, now under development (Chignola R and Milotti E 2004 Physica A 338 261-6). Nutrients regulate the proliferation dynamics of tumour cells which adapt their behaviour to respond to changes in the biochemical composition of the environment. This modelling of nutrient metabolism and cell cycle at a mesoscopic scale level leads to a continuous flow of information between the two disparate spatiotemporal scales of molecular and cellular dynamics that can be simulated with modern computers and tested experimentally.

  4. A Stochastic Cellular Automata Approach to Population Dynamics of Cells in a HIV Immune Response Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, Ras B.

    1998-03-01

    A stochastic cellular automata (SCA) approach is introduced to study the growth and decay of cellular population in an immune response model relevant to HIV. Four cell types are considered: macrophages (M), helper cells (H), cytotoxic cells (C), and viral infected cells (V). Mobility of the cells is introduced and viral mutation is considered probabilistically. In absence of mutation, the population of the host cells, helper (N_H) and cytotxic (N_C) cells in particular, dominates over the viral population (N_V), i.e., N_H, NC > N_V, the immune system wins over the viral infection. Variation of cellular population with time exhibits oscillations. The amplitude of oscillations in variation of N_H, NC and NV with time decreases at high mobility even at low viral mutation; the rate of viral growth is nonmonotonic with NV > N_H, NC in the long time regime. The viral population is much higher than that of the host cells at higher mutation rate, a possible cause of AIDS.

  5. Modelling Population Dynamics in Realistic Landscapes with Linear Elements: A Mechanistic-Statistical Reaction-Diffusion Approach

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We propose and develop a general approach based on reaction-diffusion equations for modelling a species dynamics in a realistic two-dimensional (2D) landscape crossed by linear one-dimensional (1D) corridors, such as roads, hedgerows or rivers. Our approach is based on a hybrid “2D/1D model”, i.e, a system of 2D and 1D reaction-diffusion equations with homogeneous coefficients, in which each equation describes the population dynamics in a given 2D or 1D element of the landscape. Using the example of the range expansion of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in France and its main highways as 1D corridors, we show that the model can be fitted to realistic observation data. We develop a mechanistic-statistical approach, based on the coupling between a model of population dynamics and a probabilistic model of the observation process. This allows us to bridge the gap between the data (3 levels of infestation, at the scale of a French department) and the output of the model (population densities at each point of the landscape), and to estimate the model parameter values using a maximum-likelihood approach. Using classical model comparison criteria, we obtain a better fit and a better predictive power with the 2D/1D model than with a standard homogeneous reaction-diffusion model. This shows the potential importance of taking into account the effect of the corridors (highways in the present case) on species dynamics. With regard to the particular case of A. albopictus, the conclusion that highways played an important role in species range expansion in mainland France is consistent with recent findings from the literature. PMID:26986201

  6. Modelling Population Dynamics in Realistic Landscapes with Linear Elements: A Mechanistic-Statistical Reaction-Diffusion Approach.

    PubMed

    Roques, Lionel; Bonnefon, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    We propose and develop a general approach based on reaction-diffusion equations for modelling a species dynamics in a realistic two-dimensional (2D) landscape crossed by linear one-dimensional (1D) corridors, such as roads, hedgerows or rivers. Our approach is based on a hybrid "2D/1D model", i.e, a system of 2D and 1D reaction-diffusion equations with homogeneous coefficients, in which each equation describes the population dynamics in a given 2D or 1D element of the landscape. Using the example of the range expansion of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in France and its main highways as 1D corridors, we show that the model can be fitted to realistic observation data. We develop a mechanistic-statistical approach, based on the coupling between a model of population dynamics and a probabilistic model of the observation process. This allows us to bridge the gap between the data (3 levels of infestation, at the scale of a French department) and the output of the model (population densities at each point of the landscape), and to estimate the model parameter values using a maximum-likelihood approach. Using classical model comparison criteria, we obtain a better fit and a better predictive power with the 2D/1D model than with a standard homogeneous reaction-diffusion model. This shows the potential importance of taking into account the effect of the corridors (highways in the present case) on species dynamics. With regard to the particular case of A. albopictus, the conclusion that highways played an important role in species range expansion in mainland France is consistent with recent findings from the literature.

  7. A system dynamics modelling approach to assess the impact of launching a new nicotine product on population health outcomes.

    PubMed

    Hill, Andrew; Camacho, Oscar M

    2017-03-22

    In 2012 the US FDA suggested the use of mathematical models to assess the impact of releasing new nicotine or tobacco products on population health outcomes. A model based on system dynamics methodology was developed to project the potential effects of a new nicotine product at a population level. A model representing traditional smoking populations (never, current and former smokers) and calibrated using historical data was extended to a two-product model by including electronic cigarettes use statuses. Smoking mechanisms, such as product initiation, switching, transition to dual use, and cessation, were represented as flows between smoking statuses (stocks) and the potential effect of smoking renormalisation through a feedback system. Mortality over a 50-year period (2000-2050) was the health outcome of interest, and was compared between two scenarios, with and without e-cigarettes being introduced. The results suggest that by 2050, smoking prevalence in adults was 12.4% in the core model and 9.7% (including dual users) in the counterfactual. Smoking-related mortality was 8.4% and 8.1%, respectively. The results suggested an overall beneficial effect from launching e-cigarettes and that system dynamics could be a useful approach to assess the potential population health effects of nicotine products when epidemiological data are not available.

  8. Regional Population Dynamics

    Treesearch

    Andrew Birt

    2011-01-01

    The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

  9. Dose-structured population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ginn, Timothy R; Loge, Frank J

    2007-07-01

    Applied population dynamics modeling is relied upon with increasing frequency to quantify how human activities affect human and non-human populations. Current techniques include variously the population's spatial transport, age, size, and physiology, but typically not the life-histories of exposure to other important things occurring in the ambient environment, such as chemicals, heat, or radiation. Consequently, the effects of such 'abiotic' aspects of an ecosystem on populations are only currently addressed through individual-based modeling approaches that despite broad utility are limited in their applicability to realistic ecosystems [V. Grimm, Ten years of individual-based modeling in ecology: what have we learned and what could we learn in the future? Ecol. Model. 115 (1999) 129-148][1]. We describe a new category of population dynamics modeling, wherein population dynamical states of the biotic phases are structured on dose, and apply this framework to demonstrate how chemical species or other ambient aspects can be included in population dynamics in three separate examples involving growth suppression in fish, inactivation of microorganisms with ultraviolet irradiation, and metabolic lag in population growth. Dose-structuring is based on a kinematic approach that is a simple generalization of age-structuring, views the ecosystem as a multi-component mixture with reacting biotic/abiotic components. The resulting model framework accommodates (a) different memories of exposure as in recovery from toxic ambient conditions, (b) differentiation between exogenous and endogenous sources of variation in population response, and (c) quantification of acute or sub-acute effects on populations arising from life-history exposures to abiotic species. Classical models do not easily address the very important fact that organisms differ and have different experiences over their life cycle. The dose structuring is one approach to incorporate some of these elements into the

  10. Evolutionary dynamics in finite populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauert, Christoph

    2013-03-01

    Traditionally, evolutionary dynamics has been studied based on infinite populations and deterministic frameworks such as the replicator equation. Only more recently the focus has shifted to the stochastic dynamics arising in finite populations. Over the past years new concepts have been developed to describe such dynamics and has lead to interesting results that arise from the stochastic, microscopic updates, which drive the evolutionary process. Here we discuss a transparent link between the dynamics in finite and infinite populations. The focus on microscopic processes reveals interesting insights into (sometimes implicit) assumptions in terms of biological interactions that provide the basis for deterministic frameworks and the replicator equation in particular. More specifically, we demonstrate that stochastic differential equations can provide an efficient approach to model evolutionary dynamics in finite populations and we use the rock-scissors-paper game with mutations as an example. For sufficiently large populations the agreement with individual based simulations is excellent, with the interesting caveat that mutation events may not be too rare. In the absence of mutations, the excellent agreement extends to small population sizes.

  11. Evolutionary dynamics in structured populations

    PubMed Central

    Nowak, Martin A.; Tarnita, Corina E.; Antal, Tibor

    2010-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics shape the living world around us. At the centre of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The structure of that population affects evolutionary dynamics. The individuals can be molecules, cells, viruses, multicellular organisms or humans. Whenever the fitness of individuals depends on the relative abundance of phenotypes in the population, we are in the realm of evolutionary game theory. Evolutionary game theory is a general approach that can describe the competition of species in an ecosystem, the interaction between hosts and parasites, between viruses and cells, and also the spread of ideas and behaviours in the human population. In this perspective, we review the recent advances in evolutionary game dynamics with a particular emphasis on stochastic approaches in finite sized and structured populations. We give simple, fundamental laws that determine how natural selection chooses between competing strategies. We study the well-mixed population, evolutionary graph theory, games in phenotype space and evolutionary set theory. We apply these results to the evolution of cooperation. The mechanism that leads to the evolution of cooperation in these settings could be called ‘spatial selection’: cooperators prevail against defectors by clustering in physical or other spaces. PMID:20008382

  12. Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

    PubMed Central

    Zipkin, Elise F; Sillett, T Scott; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of

  13. Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive

  14. Population dynamics of mottled sculpin (PISCES) in a variable environment: information theoretic approaches

    Treesearch

    Gary D. Grossman; Robert E Ratajczak; J. Todd Petty; Mark D. Hunter; James T. Peterson; Gael Grenouillet

    2006-01-01

    We used strong inference with Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the processes capable of explaining long-term (1984-1995) variation in the per capita rate of change of mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdi) populations in the Coweeta Creek drainage (USA). We sampled two fourth- and one fifth-order sites (BCA [uppermost], BCB, and CC [lowermost])...

  15. Population approaches in paediatrics.

    PubMed

    Chatelut, Etienne

    2008-12-01

    Population pharmacokinetic (PK) approach is now often used to evaluate PK characteristics of a new compound during its clinical development. Recently, new legislation governing the development and authorization of medicines for use in children aged 0-17 years was introduced in the European Union. Among the strategies proposed in relation to clinical aspects, use of population PKs is stated. In this manuscript, comparison between standard PK and population PK methods will be briefly addressed to understand why the second is particularly adapted to perform PK studies in paediatrics. Then, specific patients' characteristics (covariates) in paediatrics will be presented. Examples of PK and PK-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) studies will be finally given. The number of population PK studies published still exceeds largely those of PK-PD.

  16. A Monte Carlo Approach to Population Dynamics of Cell in an HIV Immune Response Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mannion, Rachel; Ruskin, Heather; Pandey, Ras

    2000-03-01

    A direct Monte Carlo method is used to study the growth and decay of celluar elements, macrophages (N_H), helper T-cells (N_H), cytotoxic cells (N_C), and antigens (N_V), with an HIV immune response model. A set of rule-based logical interactions among the cells are considered. Cells divide and decay on a discrete lattice as a result of immune mechanism implemented via the inter- and intra-cellular interactions. Viral mutation is considered probabilistically (P_mut). Cells are mobile with their local motility-bias and the overall mobility is controlled by cellular mobility (P_mob). Computer simulations are performed on different lattice sizes with a number of independent runs for each parameter for averaging. Cellular mobility (P_mob=1) enhances the viral growth and reduces the stimulative T-cell growth. As a function of viral mutation rate, the interplay between the steady- state density of helper T-cells (ρ_H) and the viruses (ρ_V), leads to interesting predictions regarding the degree of infection including AIDS. For example, below a mutation threshold, (P_mut <= P_c), while the relative T-cell count (- Δ0 = ρ_H-ρV > 0) is not as alarming, above the threshold, viral population increasingly dominates as a function of the mutation rate with the onset of a continuous transition Δ ρ0 ∝ (P_mut - P_c)^β β ~= 0.574 ± 0.016 as P_mut → Pc in absence cellular mobility.

  17. Extinction in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Escudero, C.; Buceta, J.; de La Rubia, F. J.; Lindenberg, Katja

    2004-02-01

    We study a generic reaction-diffusion model for single-species population dynamics that includes reproduction, death, and competition. The population is assumed to be confined in a refuge beyond which conditions are so harsh that they lead to certain extinction. Standard continuum mean field models in one dimension yield a critical refuge length Lc such that a population in a refuge larger than this is assured survival. Herein we extend the model to take into account the discreteness and finiteness of the population, which leads us to a stochastic description. We present a particular critical criterion for likely extinction, namely, that the standard deviation of the population be equal to the mean. According to this criterion, we find that while survival can no longer be guaranteed for any refuge size, for sufficiently weak competition one can make the refuge large enough (certainly larger than Lc) to cause extinction to be unlikely. However, beyond a certain value of the competition rate parameter it is no longer possible to escape a likelihood of extinction even in an infinite refuge. These unavoidable fluctuations therefore have a severe impact on refuge design issues.

  18. A hybrid approach to transport processes in the Gulf of Naples: an application to phytoplankton and zooplankton population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grieco, L.; Tremblay, L.-B.; Zambianchi, E.

    2005-03-01

    A hybrid numerical approach was developed to study the dispersion of passive/reactive tracers in the Gulf of Naples (GON). To this end, an Eulerian and a Lagrangian scheme were implemented in the barotropic form of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and applied to the dispersion of zoo- and phytoplankton in the GON. The hybrid technique was first validated by comparing the tracer concentration patterns from the Eulerian model and maps of particle positions from the Lagrangian model. Excellent agreement in both spatial distribution and temporal evolution of these quantities was found between the two models. Second, the circulation in the GON was simulated using the POM model. While using simplified forcing fields, the simulated circulation patterns in the GON reproduce many observed features. These include the flushing of the GON waters typically occurring in spring and the formation of a close cyclonic gyre (trapping and homogenizing tracers in the GON) in autumn. The circulation patterns are strongly influenced by both the surface wind stresses and bathymetry and only "remotely" by the Tyrrhenian circulation. For the biological application, the spatial and temporal evolution of passive tracers (e.g., nutrients) was simulated using the Eulerian approach and that of the zoo- and phytoplankton using the Lagrangian approach. These populations were assumed to follow a prey-predator relationship and were studied using a grid resolution of 1.5 km. At these scales, the biological and physical processes (e.g., grazing, phyto- and zooplankton growth rate, mesoscale eddies, horizontal turbulent diffusion), influence plankton heterogeneity and patchiness. In particular, the model results show that phytoplankton variability have spatial and temporal scales similar than those of the carrying capacity (considered here as the effect of a limiting nutrient), yet bigger than the flow turbulence due to diffusion processes. The zooplankton population on the other hand develops on

  19. An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison Sage-Grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Phillips, Michael L.; Doherty, Paul F.

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.

  20. An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison sage-grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data.

    PubMed

    Davis, Amy J; Hooten, Mevin B; Phillips, Michael L; Doherty, Paul F

    2014-11-01

    Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953-2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.

  1. An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison sage-grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data

    PubMed Central

    Davis, Amy J; Hooten, Mevin B; Phillips, Michael L; Doherty, Paul F

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years. PMID:25540687

  2. Coupling between evolutionary and population dynamics in experimental microbial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2012-02-01

    It has been often been assumed that population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics occur at such different timescales that they are effectively de-coupled. This view has been challenged recently, due to observations of evolutionary changes occurring in short timescales. This has led to a growing interest in understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics of populations. In this context, recent theoretical models have predicted that coupling between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics can have important effects for the evolution and stability of cooperation, and lead to extremely rich and varied dynamics. Here, we report our investigation of the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a cooperative social behavior, sucrose metabolism, in experimental yeast populations. We have devised an experimental strategy to visualize trajectories in the phase space formed by the population size (N) and the fraction of cooperator cells in the population (f). Our measurements confirm a strong coupling between evolutionary and population dynamics, and allowed us to characterize the bifurcation plots. We used this approach to investigate how sudden environmental changes affect the stability and recovery of populations, and therefore the stability of cooperation.

  3. Population dynamics, production, and prey consumption of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) in prairie wetlands: A bioenergetics approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Duffy, W.G.

    1998-01-01

    I assessed the population dynamics of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) in prairie wetlands and developed a bioenergetics model to estimate their production and prey consumption. I sampled populations in four wetlands weekly from late May through June and biweekly during July and August using a Kushlan 1-m2 throw trap. I imposed commercial harvest on two populations; the other two populations served as controls. Weekly population density estimates ranged from 52 000 to 356 000??ha-1 during early June and from 5400 to 19 700??ha-1 in late August. Simulated commercial harvest did not influence population density, mortality rates, or size of fathead minnows. Standing stock biomass differed among wetlands sampled, ranging from 144 to 482 kg??ha-1 in early June and from 1 to 33 kg??ha-1 during late August. However, differences were attributed to differential predation pressure rather than harvest pressure. Net production during the period ranged from 71.5 to 202.7 kg??ha-1. Daily net production was greatest in early June (2.6-13.5 kg??ha-1??day-1) and then declined during July and August (0.1-1.2 kg??ha-1??day-1). Total mass of prey consumed by fathead minnows ranged from 332.7-1104.8 kg??ha-1 among wetlands.

  4. A dynamic activity-based population modelling approach to evaluate exposure to air pollution: Methods and application to a Dutch urban area

    SciTech Connect

    Beckx, Carolien Int Panis, Luc Arentze, Theo Janssens, Davy Torfs, Rudi; Broekx, Steven; Wets, Geert

    2009-04-15

    Recent air quality studies have highlighted that important differences in pollutant concentrations can occur over the day and between different locations. Traditional exposure analyses, however, assume that people are only exposed to pollution at their place of residence. Activity-based models, which recently have emerged from the field of transportation research, offer a technique to micro-simulate activity patterns of a population with a high resolution in space and time. Due to their characteristics, this model can be applied to establish a dynamic exposure assessment to air pollution. This paper presents a new exposure methodology, using a micro-simulator of activity-travel behaviour, to develop a dynamic exposure assessment. The methodology is applied to a Dutch urban area to demonstrate the advantages of the approach for exposure analysis. The results for the exposure to PM{sub 10} and PM{sub 2.5}, air pollutants considered as hazardous for human health, reveal large differences between the static and the dynamic approach, mainly due to an underestimation of the number of hours spent in the urban region by the static method. We can conclude that this dynamic population modelling approach is an important improvement over traditional methods and offers a new and more sensitive way for estimating population exposure to air pollution. In the light of the new European directive, aimed at reducing the exposure of the population to PM{sub 2.5}, this new approach contributes to a much more accurate exposure assessment that helps evaluate policies to reduce public exposure to air pollution.

  5. Effect of Mutation on Immune Response in an HIV Response Model via Population Dynamics of Cell - A Monte Carlo Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, Ras; Ruskin, Heather; Mannion, Rachel

    2001-03-01

    Using a direct Monte Carlo method we study the population dynamics of cells, i.e., macrophages (N_M), helper T-cells (N_H), cytotoxic cells (N_C), and antigens (N_V), with an HIV immune response model. Cells interact with eact other with a set of rules based on known HIV response. Cells can be mobile with a probability P_mob with a local motility-bias and viruses can mutate with a probability P_mut. Computer simulations are performed on cubic lattices with a number of independent runs. Population of cellular elements with the Monte Carlo time steps are monitored at a function of mutation at two extreme values of mobility, P_mob = 0, 1. We find that, in absence of mobility (P_mob = 0), the helper T-cells grow nonmonotonically before reaching saturation while the viral population grows monotonically to a constant value. On the other hand, cellular mobility (P_mob=1) enhances the viral growth and reduces the stimulative T-cell growth. The relative magnitude of the steady-state density of helper cell and viral infected cells determine the level of infection. Viral population dominates over the helper T-Cells above a critical mutation threshold (p_c) while helper T-Cells dominates below p_c. Nature of transition depends on mobility.

  6. Evolutionary dynamics of diploid populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desimone, Ralph; Newman, Timothy

    2003-10-01

    There has been much recent interest in constructing computer models of evolutionary dynamics. Typically these models focus on asexual population dynamics, which are appropriate for haploid organsims such as bacteria. Using a recently developed ``genome template'' model, we extend the algorithm to a sexual population of diploid organisms. We will present some early results showing the temporal evolution of mean fitness and genetic variation, and compare this to typical results from haploid populations.

  7. New insights into the nonadiabatic state population dynamics of model proton-coupled electron transfer reactions from the mixed quantum-classical Liouville approach

    SciTech Connect

    Shakib, Farnaz A.; Hanna, Gabriel

    2016-01-14

    In a previous study [F. A. Shakib and G. Hanna, J. Chem. Phys. 141, 044122 (2014)], we investigated a model proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reaction via the mixed quantum-classical Liouville (MQCL) approach and found that the trajectories spend the majority of their time on the mean of two coherently coupled adiabatic potential energy surfaces. This suggested a need for mean surface evolution to accurately simulate observables related to ultrafast PCET processes. In this study, we simulate the time-dependent populations of the three lowest adiabatic states in the ET-PT (i.e., electron transfer preceding proton transfer) version of the same PCET model via the MQCL approach and compare them to the exact quantum results and those obtained via the fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) approach. We find that the MQCL population profiles are in good agreement with the exact quantum results and show a significant improvement over the FSSH results. All of the mean surfaces are shown to play a direct role in the dynamics of the state populations. Interestingly, our results indicate that the population transfer to the second-excited state can be mediated by dynamics on the mean of the ground and second-excited state surfaces, as part of a sequence of nonadiabatic transitions that bypasses the first-excited state surface altogether. This is made possible through nonadiabatic transitions between different mean surfaces, which is the manifestation of coherence transfer in MQCL dynamics. We also investigate the effect of the strength of the coupling between the proton/electron and the solvent coordinate on the state population dynamics. Drastic changes in the population dynamics are observed, which can be understood in terms of the changes in the potential energy surfaces and the nonadiabatic couplings. Finally, we investigate the state population dynamics in the PT-ET (i.e., proton transfer preceding electron transfer) and concerted versions of the model. The PT

  8. New insights into the nonadiabatic state population dynamics of model proton-coupled electron transfer reactions from the mixed quantum-classical Liouville approach.

    PubMed

    Shakib, Farnaz A; Hanna, Gabriel

    2016-01-14

    In a previous study [F. A. Shakib and G. Hanna, J. Chem. Phys. 141, 044122 (2014)], we investigated a model proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reaction via the mixed quantum-classical Liouville (MQCL) approach and found that the trajectories spend the majority of their time on the mean of two coherently coupled adiabatic potential energy surfaces. This suggested a need for mean surface evolution to accurately simulate observables related to ultrafast PCET processes. In this study, we simulate the time-dependent populations of the three lowest adiabatic states in the ET-PT (i.e., electron transfer preceding proton transfer) version of the same PCET model via the MQCL approach and compare them to the exact quantum results and those obtained via the fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) approach. We find that the MQCL population profiles are in good agreement with the exact quantum results and show a significant improvement over the FSSH results. All of the mean surfaces are shown to play a direct role in the dynamics of the state populations. Interestingly, our results indicate that the population transfer to the second-excited state can be mediated by dynamics on the mean of the ground and second-excited state surfaces, as part of a sequence of nonadiabatic transitions that bypasses the first-excited state surface altogether. This is made possible through nonadiabatic transitions between different mean surfaces, which is the manifestation of coherence transfer in MQCL dynamics. We also investigate the effect of the strength of the coupling between the proton/electron and the solvent coordinate on the state population dynamics. Drastic changes in the population dynamics are observed, which can be understood in terms of the changes in the potential energy surfaces and the nonadiabatic couplings. Finally, we investigate the state population dynamics in the PT-ET (i.e., proton transfer preceding electron transfer) and concerted versions of the model. The PT

  9. Natural selection and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Saccheri, Ilik; Hanski, Ilkka

    2006-06-01

    To what extent, and under which circumstances, are population dynamics influenced by concurrent natural selection? Density dependence and environmental stochasticity are generally expected to subsume any selective modulation of population growth rate, but theoretical considerations point to conditions under which selection can have an appreciable impact on population dynamics. By contrast, empirical research has barely scratched the surface of this fundamental question in population biology. Here, we present a diverse body of mostly empirical evidence that demonstrates how selection can influence population dynamics, including studies of small populations, metapopulations, cyclical populations and host-pathogen interactions. We also discuss the utility, in this context, of inferences from molecular genetic data, placing them within the broader framework of quantitative genetics and life-history evolution.

  10. Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

    1999-01-01

    The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

  11. Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Moreno, Eduardo S; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario S; Oklander, Luciana I; Kowalewski, Martín M; Beldomenico, Pablo M; Goenaga, Silvina; Martínez, Mariela; Lestani, Eduardo; Desbiez, Arnaud LJ; Miller, Philip

    2015-01-01

    In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level. PMID:26517499

  12. Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics.

    PubMed

    Moreno, Eduardo S; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario S; Oklander, Luciana I; Kowalewski, Martín M; Beldomenico, Pablo M; Goenaga, Silvina; Martínez, Mariela; Lestani, Eduardo; Desbiez, Arnaud L J; Miller, Philip

    2015-11-01

    In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

  13. Population dynamics under the Laplace assumption.

    PubMed

    Marreiros, André C; Kiebel, Stefan J; Daunizeau, Jean; Harrison, Lee M; Friston, Karl J

    2009-02-01

    In this paper, we describe a generic approach to modelling dynamics in neuronal populations. This approach models a full density on the states of neuronal populations but finesses this high-dimensional problem by re-formulating density dynamics in terms of ordinary differential equations on the sufficient statistics of the densities considered (c.f., the method of moments). The particular form for the population density we adopt is a Gaussian density (c.f., the Laplace assumption). This means population dynamics are described by equations governing the evolution of the population's mean and covariance. We derive these equations from the Fokker-Planck formalism and illustrate their application to a conductance-based model of neuronal exchanges. One interesting aspect of this formulation is that we can uncouple the mean and covariance to furnish a neural-mass model, which rests only on the populations mean. This enables us to compare equivalent mean-field and neural-mass models of the same populations and evaluate, quantitatively, the contribution of population variance to the expected dynamics. The mean-field model presented here will form the basis of a dynamic causal model of observed electromagnetic signals in future work.

  14. A two-reservoir, hollow-fiber bioreactor for the study of mixed-population dynamics: design aspects and validation of the approach.

    PubMed

    Manjarrez, E S; Albasi, C; Riba, J P

    2000-08-20

    A two-reservoir, membrane bioreactor for carrying out studies of mixed-population dynamics in batch fermentations is presented. Mixing requirements and design aspects for the validity of the approach are given and discussed. Equations describing mixing times between the reservoirs are presented and compared to the experimental results. The validity of the approach is demonstrated by the study of an amensalistic-type interaction, the protein-mediated killer phenomenon between two Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains. The validation consisted in the comparison between the results obtained in actual mixed culture and the results obtained by keeping the strains separated. A good agreement was found which demonstrates the viability of the designed bioreactor.

  15. A statistical dynamics approach to the study of human health data: resolving population scale diurnal variation in laboratory data

    PubMed Central

    Albers, D. J.; Hripcsak, George

    2010-01-01

    Statistical physics and information theory is applied to the clinical chemistry measurements present in a patient database containing 2.5 million patients’ data over a 20-year period. Despite the seemingly naive approach of aggregating all patients over all times (with respect to particular clinical chemistry measurements), both a diurnal signal in the decay of the time-delayed mutual information and the presence of two sub-populations with differing health are detected. This provides a proof in principle that the highly fragmented data in electronic health records has potential for being useful in defining disease and human phenotypes. PMID:20544004

  16. A statistical dynamics approach to the study of human health data: Resolving population scale diurnal variation in laboratory data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albers, D. J.; Hripcsak, George

    2010-02-01

    Statistical physics and information theory is applied to the clinical chemistry measurements present in a patient database containing 2.5 million patients' data over a 20-year period. Despite the seemingly naive approach of aggregating all patients over all times (with respect to particular clinical chemistry measurements), both a diurnal signal in the decay of the time-delayed mutual information and the presence of two sub-populations with differing health are detected. This provides a proof in principle that the highly fragmented data in electronic health records has potential for being useful in defining disease and human phenotypes.

  17. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  18. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  19. Population dynamics with and without selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pȩkalski, Andrzej; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2001-03-01

    A model describing population dynamics is presented. We study the effect of selection pressure and inbreeding on the time evolution of the population and the chances of survival. We find that the selection is in general beneficial, enabling survival of a population whose size is declining. Inbreeding reduces the survival chances since it leads to clustering of individuals. We have also found, in agreement with biological data, that there is a threshold value of the initial size of the population, as well as of the habitat, below which the population will almost certainly become extinct. We present analytical and computer simulation approaches.

  20. Discreteness effects in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Lecomte, Vivien

    2016-05-01

    We analyse numerically the effects of small population size in the initial transient regime of a simple example population dynamics. These effects play an important role for the numerical determination of large deviation functions of additive observables for stochastic processes. A method commonly used in order to determine such functions is the so-called cloning algorithm which in its non-constant population version essentially reduces to the determination of the growth rate of a population, averaged over many realizations of the dynamics. However, the averaging of populations is highly dependent not only on the number of realizations of the population dynamics, and on the initial population size but also on the cut-off time (or population) considered to stop their numerical evolution. This may result in an over-influence of discreteness effects at initial times, caused by small population size. We overcome these effects by introducing a (realization-dependent) time delay in the evolution of populations, additional to the discarding of the initial transient regime of the population growth where these discreteness effects are strong. We show that the improvement in the estimation of the large deviation function comes precisely from these two main contributions.

  1. Two complementary paradigms for analysing population dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Krebs, Charles J

    2002-01-01

    To understand why population growth rate is sometimes positive and sometimes negative, ecologists have adopted two main approaches. The most common approach is through the density paradigm by plotting population growth rate against population density. The second approach is through the mechanistic paradigm by plotting population growth rate against the relevant ecological processes affecting the population. The density paradigm is applied a posteriori, works sometimes but not always and is remarkably useless in solving management problems or in providing an understanding of why populations change in size. The mechanistic paradigm investigates the factors that supposedly drive density changes and is identical to Caughley's declining population paradigm of conservation biology. The assumption that we can uncover invariant relationships between population growth rate and some other variables is an article of faith. Numerous commercial fishery applications have failed to find the invariant relationships between stock and recruitment that are predicted by the density paradigm. Environmental variation is the rule, and non-equilibrial dynamics should force us to look for the mechanisms of population change. If multiple factors determine changes in population density, there can be no predictability in either of these paradigms and we will become environmental historians rather than scientists with useful generalizations for the population problems of this century. Defining our questions clearly and adopting an experimental approach with crisp alternative hypotheses and adequate controls will be essential to building useful generalizations for solving the practical problems of population management in fisheries, wildlife and conservation. PMID:12396513

  2. Modeling the effect of sedentary behaviour on the prevention of population obesity using the system dynamics approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura; Zulkepli, Jafri Hj

    2015-10-01

    Obesity is a medical condition where an individual has an excessive amount of body fat. There are many factors contributing to obesity and one of them is the sedentary behaviour. Rapid development in industrialization and urbanization has brought changes to Malaysia's socioeconomic, especially the lifestyles of Malaysians. With this lifestyle transition, one of the impact is on weight and obesity. How does sedentary behaviour have an impact on the growth of Malaysian population's weight and obesity? What is the most effective sedentary behaviour preventing strategy to obesity? Is it through reduction in duration or frequency of sedentary behaviour? Thus, the aim of this paper is to design an intervention to analyse the effect of decreasing duration and frequency of sedentary behaviour on the population reversion trends of average weight (AW), average body mass index (ABMI), and prevalence of overweight and obesity (POVB). This study combines the different strands of sub-models comprised of nutrition, physical activity and body metabolism, and then synthesis these knowledge into a system dynamics of weight behaviour model, namely SIMULObese. Findings from this study revealed that Malaysian's adults spend a lot of time engaged in sedentary behaviour and this resulted in weight gain and obesity. Comparing between frequency and duration of sedentary behaviour, this study reported that reduced in duration or time spend in sedentary behaviour is a better preventing strategy to obesity compared to duration. As a summary, this study highlighted the importance of decreasing the frequency and duration of sedentary behaviour in developing guidelines to prevent obesity.

  3. A model approach to the population dynamics of the rotifer Brachionus rubens in two-stage chemostat culture.

    PubMed

    Rothhaupt, Karl Otto

    1985-01-01

    A model, based on energy-flow considerations, is presented which describes the population dynamics of Brachionus rubens in the second stage of a two-stage algalrotifer chemostat. The rotifers are foodlimited with substrate-inhibition occurring at high algal densities. The model shows two stable states: steady state with constant density of rotifers and washout of the animals. Which one of the stable states is reached depends on the initial conditions.Empirical data are in general agreement with the model. Deviations may be explained by the fact that the data underlying the model calculations are based on a different food alga (Chlorella vulgaris) than the one used in the experiments (Monoraphidium minutum).The observed population growth rate reaches a maximum value of 0.84 (1/day) at algal densities of 3-4. 10(6) cells/ml. It decreases at higher algal densities. The egg ratio is related linearily to algal density without being reduced at high algal densities.

  4. Optimizing strategies for population-based chlamydia infection screening among young women: an age-structured system dynamics approach.

    PubMed

    Teng, Yu; Kong, Nan; Tu, Wanzhu

    2015-07-11

    Chlamydia infection (CT) is one of the most commonly reported sexually transmitted diseases. It is often referred to as a "silent" disease with the majority of infected people having no symptoms. Without early detection, it can progress to serious reproductive and other health problems. Economical identification of asymptomatically infected is a key public health challenge. Increasing evidence suggests that CT infection risk varies over the range of adolescence. Hence, age-dependent screening strategies with more frequent testing for certain age groups of higher risk may be cost-saving in controlling the disease. We study the optimization of age-dependent screening strategies for population-based chlamydia infection screening among young women. We develop an age-structured compartment model for CT natural progress, screening, and treatment. We apply parameter optimization on the resultant PDE-based system dynamical models with the objective of minimizing the total care spending, including screening and treatment costs during the program period and anticipated costs of treating the sequelae afterwards). For ease of practical implementation, we also search for the best screening initiation age for strategies with a constant screening frequency. The optimal age-dependent strategies identified outperform the current CDC recommendations both in terms of total care spending and disease prevalence at the termination of the program. For example, the age-dependent strategy that allows monthly screening rate changes can save about 5% of the total spending. Our results suggest early initiation of CT screening is likely beneficial to the cost saving and prevalence reduction. Finally, our results imply that the strategy design may not be sensitive to accurate quantification of the age-specific CT infection risk if screening initiation age and screening rate are the only decisions to make. Our research demonstrates the potential economic benefit of age-dependent screening

  5. Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1979-01-01

    The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

  6. Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

    In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three

  7. Dynamic Approaches to Language Processing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Srinivasan, Narayanan

    2007-01-01

    Symbolic rule-based approaches have been a preferred way to study language and cognition. Dissatisfaction with rule-based approaches in the 1980s lead to alternative approaches to study language, the most notable being the dynamic approaches to language processing. Dynamic approaches provide a significant alternative by not being rule-based and…

  8. A new bio-inspired, population-level approach to the socioeconomic evolution of dynamic spectrum access services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horvath, Denis; Gazda, Juraj; Brutovsky, Branislav

    Evolutionary species and quasispecies models provide the universal and flexible basis for a large-scale description of the dynamics of evolutionary systems, which can be built conceived as a constraint satisfaction dynamics. It represents a general framework to design and study many novel, technologically contemporary models and their variants. Here, we apply the classical quasispecies concept to model the emerging dynamic spectrum access (DSA) markets. The theory describes the mechanisms of mimetic transfer, competitive interactions between socioeconomic strata of the end-users, their perception of the utility and inter-operator switching in the variable technological environments of the operators offering the wireless spectrum services. The algorithmization and numerical modeling demonstrate the long-term evolutionary socioeconomic changes which reflect the end-user preferences and results of the majorization of their irrational decisions in the same manner as the prevailing tendencies which are embodied in the efficient market hypothesis.

  9. Stochastic Gain in Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traulsen, Arne; Röhl, Torsten; Schuster, Heinz Georg

    2004-07-01

    We introduce an extension of the usual replicator dynamics to adaptive learning rates. We show that a population with a dynamic learning rate can gain an increased average payoff in transient phases and can also exploit external noise, leading the system away from the Nash equilibrium, in a resonancelike fashion. The payoff versus noise curve resembles the signal to noise ratio curve in stochastic resonance. Seen in this broad context, we introduce another mechanism that exploits fluctuations in order to improve properties of the system. Such a mechanism could be of particular interest in economic systems.

  10. Stochastic population dynamics: The Poisson approximation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solari, Hernán G.; Natiello, Mario A.

    2003-03-01

    We introduce an approximation to stochastic population dynamics based on almost independent Poisson processes whose parameters obey a set of coupled ordinary differential equations. The approximation applies to systems that evolve in terms of events such as death, birth, contagion, emission, absorption, etc., and we assume that the event-rates satisfy a generalized mass-action law. The dynamics of the populations is then the result of the projection from the space of events into the space of populations that determine the state of the system (phase space). The properties of the Poisson approximation are studied in detail. Especially, error bounds for the moment generating function and the generating function receive particular attention. The deterministic approximation for the population fractions and the Langevin-type approximation for the fluctuations around the mean value are recovered within the framework of the Poisson approximation as particular limit cases. However, the proposed framework allows to treat other limit cases and general situations with small populations that lie outside the scope of the standard approaches. The Poisson approximation can be viewed as a general (numerical) integration scheme for this family of problems in population dynamics.

  11. Dynamics of North American breeding bird populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keitt, Timothy H.; Stanley, H. Eugene

    1998-05-01

    Population biologists have long been interested in the variability of natural populations. One approach to dealing with ecological complexity is to reduce the system to one or a few species, for which meaningful equations can be solved. Here we explore an alternative approach, by studying the statistical properties of a data set containing over 600 species, namely the North American breeding bird survey. The survey has recorded annual species abundances over a 31-year period along more than 3,000 observation routes. We now analyse the dynamics of population variability using this data set, and find scaling features in common with inanimate systems composed of strongly interacting subunits. Specifically, we find that the distribution of changes in population abundance over a one-year interval is remarkably symmetrical, with long tails extending over six orders of magnitude. The variance of the population over a time series increases as a power-law with increasing time lag, indicating long-range correlation in population size fluctuations. We also find that the distribution of species lifetimes (the time between colonization and local extinction) within local patches is a power-law with an exponential cutoff imposed by the finite length of the time series. Our results provide a quantitative basis for modelling the dynamics of large species assemblages.

  12. A critical body residue approach for predicting persistent bioaccumulative toxicant effects on reproduction and population dynamics of meiobenthic copepods.

    PubMed

    Chandler, G Thomas; Ferguson, P Lee; Klauber, W W; Washburn, K M

    2012-05-01

    Critical body residues (CBRs) are the measured tissue toxicant concentrations yielding a median dose-response on a dry-weight or lipid-normalized basis. They facilitate management decisions for species protection using tissue analysis. Population CBR is the mean dose yielding 50% population suppression and was predicted here in Amphiascus tenuiremis for fipronil sulfide (FS) using lifetables and the Leslie matrix. Microplate bioassays (ASTM E-2317-14) produced biomass sufficient for dry mass and lipid-normalized CBR estimates of reproduction (fertility) and population growth suppression. Significant FS toxic effects were delayed naupliar development (at ≥0.10 µg L(-1)), delayed copepodite development (at 0.85 µg L(-1)), decreased reproductive success (at ≥ 0.39 µg L(-1)), and decreased offspring production (at 0.85 µg L(-1)). A reproductive median effective concentration (EC50) of 0.16 µg L(-1) (95% CI: 0.12-0.21 µg L(-1)) corresponded to an adult all-sex CBR and lipid-normalized CBR of 0.38 pg FS · µg(-1) dry weight (95% CI: 0.27-0.52 pg FS · µg(-1)) or 2.8 pg FS · µg(-1) lipid (95% CI: 2.2-3.6 pg FS · µg(-1)), respectively. Copepod log bioconcentration factor (BCF) = 4.11 ± 0.2. Leslie matrix projections regressed against internal dose predicted fewer than five gravid females in a population by the third generation at 0.39 and 0.85 µg FS · L(-1) (i.e., 9.6-10.2 µg FS · µg(-1) lipid), and 50% population suppression at a CBR of 1.6 pg FS · µg(-1) lipid. This more integrative population CBR as a management tool would fall 1.75 times below the CBR for the single most sensitive endpoint-fertility rate. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  13. Dynamic control and quantification of bacterial population dynamics in droplets.

    PubMed

    Huang, Shuqiang; Srimani, Jaydeep K; Lee, Anna J; Zhang, Ying; Lopatkin, Allison J; Leong, Kam W; You, Lingchong

    2015-08-01

    Culturing and measuring bacterial population dynamics are critical to develop insights into gene regulation or bacterial physiology. Traditional methods, based on bulk culture to obtain such quantification, have the limitations of higher cost/volume of reagents, non-amendable to small size of population and more laborious manipulation. To this end, droplet-based microfluidics represents a promising alternative that is cost-effective and high-throughput. However, difficulties in manipulating the droplet environment and monitoring encapsulated bacterial population for long-term experiments limit its utilization. To overcome these limitations, we used an electrode-free injection technology to modulate the chemical environment in droplets. This ability is critical for precise control of bacterial dynamics in droplets. Moreover, we developed a trapping device for long-term monitoring of population dynamics in individual droplets for at least 240 h. We demonstrated the utility of this new microfluidic system by quantifying population dynamics of natural and engineered bacteria. Our approach can further improve the analysis for systems and synthetic biology in terms of manipulability and high temporal resolution.

  14. Dynamic control and quantification of bacterial population dynamics in droplets

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Shuqiang; Srimani, Jaydeep K.; Lee, Anna J.; Zhang, Ying; Lopatkin, Allison J.; Leong, Kam W.; You, Lingchong

    2015-01-01

    Culturing and measuring bacterial population dynamics are critical to develop insights into gene regulation or bacterial physiology. Traditional methods, based on bulk culture to obtain such quantification, have the limitations of higher cost/volume of reagents, non-amendable to small size of population and more laborious manipulation. To this end, droplet-based microfluidics represents a promising alternative that is cost-effective and high-throughput. However, difficulties in manipulating the droplet environment and monitoring encapsulated bacterial population for long-term experiments limit its utilization. To overcome these limitations, we used an electrode-free injection technology to modulate the chemical environment in droplets. This ability is critical for precise control of bacterial dynamics in droplets. Moreover, we developed a trapping device for long-term monitoring of population dynamics in individual droplets for at least 240 h. We demonstrated the utility of this new microfluidic system by quantifying population dynamics of natural and engineered bacteria. Our approach can further improve the analysis for systems and synthetic biology in terms of manipulability and high temporal resolution. PMID:26005763

  15. Flood trends and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  16. Population Dynamics of Viral Inactivation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freeman, Krista; Li, Dong; Behrens, Manja; Streletzky, Kiril; Olsson, Ulf; Evilevitch, Alex

    We have investigated the population dynamics of viral inactivation in vitrousing time-resolved cryo electron microscopy combined with light and X-ray scattering techniques. Using bacteriophage λ as a model system for pressurized double-stranded DNA viruses, we found that virions incubated with their cell receptor eject their genome in a stochastic triggering process. The triggering of DNA ejection occurs in a non synchronized manner after the receptor addition, resulting in an exponential decay of the number of genome-filled viruses with time. We have explored the characteristic time constant of this triggering process at different temperatures, salt conditions, and packaged genome lengths. Furthermore, using the temperature dependence we determined an activation energy for DNA ejections. The dependences of the time constant and activation energy on internal DNA pressure, affected by salt conditions and encapsidated genome length, suggest that the triggering process is directly dependent on the conformational state of the encapsidated DNA. The results of this work provide insight into how the in vivo kinetics of the spread of viral infection are influenced by intra- and extra cellular environmental conditions. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE-1252522.

  17. Population dynamics of obligate cooperators

    PubMed Central

    Courchamp, F.; Grenfell, B.; Clutton-Brock, T.

    1999-01-01

    Obligate cooperative breeding species demonstrate a high rate of group extinction, which may be due to the existence of a critical number of helpers below which the group cannot subsist. Through a simple model, we study the population dynamics of obligate cooperative breeding species, taking into account the existence of a lower threshold below which the instantaneous growth rate becomes negative. The model successively incorporates (i) a distinction between species that need helpers for reproduction, survival or both, (ii) the existence of a migration rate accounting for dispersal, and (iii) stochastic mortality to simulate the effects of random catastrophic events. Our results suggest that the need for a minimum number of helpers increases the risk of extinction for obligate cooperative breeding species. The constraint imposed by this threshold is higher when helpers are needed for reproduction only or for both reproduction and survival. By driving them below this lower threshold, stochastic mortality of lower amplitude and/or lower frequency than for non-cooperative breeders may be sufficient to cause the extinction of obligate cooperative breeding groups. Migration may have a buffering effect only for groups where immigration is higher than emigration; otherwise (when immigrants from nearby groups are not available) it lowers the difference between actual group size and critical threshold, thereby constituting a higher constraint.

  18. Role of noise in population dynamics cycles.

    PubMed

    Tomé, Tânia; de Oliveira, Mário J

    2009-06-01

    Noise is an intrinsic feature of population dynamics and plays a crucial role in oscillations called phase-forgetting quasicycles by converting damped into sustained oscillations. This function of noise becomes evident when considering Langevin equations whose deterministic part yields only damped oscillations. We formulate here a consistent and systematic approach to population dynamics, leading to a Fokker-Planck equation and the associate Langevin equations in accordance with this conceptual framework, founded on stochastic lattice-gas models that describe spatially structured predator-prey systems. Langevin equations in the population densities and predator-prey pair density are derived in two stages. First, a birth-and-death stochastic process in the space of prey and predator numbers and predator-prey pair number is obtained by a contraction method that reduces the degrees of freedom. Second, a van Kampen expansion in the inverse of system size is then performed to get the Fokker-Planck equation. We also study the time correlation function, the asymptotic behavior of which is used to characterize the transition from the cyclic coexistence of species to the ordinary coexistence.

  19. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  20. Targeting in a population health approach.

    PubMed

    Roberts-Thomson, Kaye

    2012-10-01

    There are two well described methods to improving health: an individual risk assessment approach and a whole population approach. This study explores the limitations of the individual approach to public health, and the success and limitations of the population approach. A theoretical approach with examples from general and oral health will be used. However although the population approach can reduce the mean prevalence of a condition within the population it can also increase health disparities. Some groups gain disproportionally more from a population intervention and vulnerable population groups disproportionally less leading to an unjust situation. These disparities are the result of social circumstances. Additional strategies targeted to vulnerable groups are therefore necessary to complement the population approach to reduce such disparities. Examples of strategies which could be used in targeting vulnerable groups will be outlined. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  1. Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

    2013-03-21

    We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity.

  2. Leading edge gypsy moth population dynamics

    Treesearch

    M. R. Carter; F. W. Ravlin; M. L. McManus

    1991-01-01

    Leading edge gypsy moth populations have been the focus of several intervention programs (MDIPM, AIPM). Knowledge of gypsy moth population dynamics in leading edge area is crucial for effective management. Populations in these areas tend to reach outbreak levels (noticeable defoliation) within three to four years after egg masses are first detected. Pheromone traps...

  3. Simulation Exercises in Population Dynamics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Laurence L.; Falk, Carol J.

    1986-01-01

    Describes a computer simulation providing population change profiles at 5-year intervals for 100 years, projecting natural rate of increase and total population, per capita gross national product, energy consumption, age-specific fertility rates, and survival ratios. Data sources for the simulation, sample printed output, and learning activities…

  4. Encroaching forests decouple alpine butterfly population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

    2007-08-21

    Over the past 50 years, the rising tree line along Jumpingpound Ridge in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada, has reduced the area of alpine meadows and isolated populations that reside within them. By analyzing an 11-year data set of butterfly population sizes for 17 subpopulations along the ridge, we show that forest habitat separating alpine meadows decouples the dynamics of populations of the alpine butterfly Parnassius smintheus. Although the distance between populations is often negatively correlated with synchrony of dynamics, here we show that distance through forest, not Euclidean distance, determines the degree of synchrony. This effect is consistent with previous results demonstrating that encroaching forest reduces dispersal among populations and reduces gene flow. Decoupling dynamics produces more smaller independent populations, each with greater risk of local extinction, but decoupling may produce a lower risk of regional extinction in this capricious environment.

  5. Population approaches to aquatic toxicology

    SciTech Connect

    Vinegar, M.B.

    1981-10-01

    Field studies in which age-specific survivorship and fecundity are measured can provide data for the validation of laboratory studies conducted to assess the effects of toxic materials on aquatic species. Comparison of the variability of age-specific survivorship and fecundity in polluted versus nonpolluted areas would provide insight into the consequences of pollution at the population level. Techniques which permit prediction of population structure and growth from age-specific survivorship and fecundity schedules are described. These techniques include the life table and the Leslie matrix. Examples of population studies in which these techniques may be applied are given.

  6. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  7. Population dynamics and rural poverty.

    PubMed

    Fong, M S

    1985-01-01

    An overview of the relationship between demographic factors and rural poverty in developing countries is presented. The author examines both the micro- and macro-level perspectives of this relationship and the determinants and consequences of population growth. The author notes the prospects for a rapid increase in the rural labor force and considers its implications for the agricultural production structure and the need for institutional change. Consideration is also given to the continuing demand for high fertility at the family level and the role of infant and child mortality in the poverty cycle. "The paper concludes by drawing attention to the need for developing the mechanism for reconciliation of social and individual optima with respect to family size and population growth." The need for rural development projects that take demographic factors into account is stressed as is the need for effective population programs. (summary in FRE, ITA)

  8. Differential Equations via Population Dynamics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sofo, Anthony

    1981-01-01

    Some single species and two species interactions in population models are presented to show how credible examples can be used to teach an underlying, common mathematical structure within apparently different concepts. The models examined consist of differential equations, and focus on real-world issues. (MP)

  9. Travelling waves in vole population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranta, Esa; Kaitala, Veijo

    1997-12-01

    Spatial self-organization patterns in population dynamics have been anticipated, but demonstrating their existence requires sampling over long periods of time at a range of sites. Voles cause severe economic damage and are therefore extensively monitored, providing a source of the required data. Using two long-term data sets we now report the existence of travelling waves in vole population numbers.

  10. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Treesearch

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  11. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Treesearch

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  12. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  13. Explaining "Noise" as Environmental Variations in Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Ginn, Timothy R.; Loge, Frank J.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2007-03-01

    The impacts of human activities on our own and other populations on the plant are making news at an alarming pace. Global warming, ocean and freshwater contamination and acidification, deforestation, habitat destruction and incursion, and in general a burgeoning human population are associated with a complete spectrum of changes to the dynamics of populations. Effects on songbirds, insects, coral reefs, ocean mammals, anadromous fishes, just to name a few, and humans, have been linked to human industry and population growth. The linkage, however, remains often ghostly and often tenuous at best, because of the difficulty in quantitatively combining ecological processes with environmental fate and transport processes. Establishing quantitative tools, that is, models, for the combined dynamics of populations and environmental chemical/thermal things is needed. This truly interdisciplinary challenge is briefly reviewed, and two approaches to integrating chemical and biological intermingling are addressed in the context of salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest.

  14. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  15. Population Dynamics and Convective Cloud Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nober, F. J.; Graf, H.-F.

    2003-04-01

    A cumulus cloud field model has been coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The results, which show a good performance of the model within the AGCM and a qualitative good agreement to observation concerning the statistical information of cloud fields are presented. While most of the current cumulus convection parameterisations are formulated as massflux schemes (determing the overall massflux of all cumulus clouds in one AGCM grid column) the presented cloud field model determines for each AGCM grid column, where convection takes place, an explicit spectrum of different clouds. Therefore the information about the actual cumulus convection state in a grid column is not restricted to an avereged massflux but includes the number of different cloud types which in principle are able to develope under the given vertical condition. The degree to which part each cloud type participates in the whole cloud field is determined by the cloud field model with respect to the special vertical state in the grid column. The choice of the cloud model to define the different cloud types is very flexible. Very simple cloud models are possible but also more complex ones that describe more realistic clouds (including dynamic and microphysical information) than simple massflux approaches do. The cloud field model takes into account the interaction between all non-convective processes calculated by the AGCM and (which makes the procedure self constistent) the cloud-cloud interaction between each cloud type and each other. The final calculation of the cloud field is done following an approach from population dynamics (Lotka-Volterra-Equation). The tests of the model in the ECHAM5 AGCM (running in single column mode) shows that the model produces reliable convective feedbacks (i.e. integral convective heating, convective transport, etc.). The additional information of the cloud field structure (power law behavior of cloud size distribution, cloud tops for each cloud type

  16. [Research advances in population dynamics of Orchidaceae].

    PubMed

    Liu, Qiang; Yin, Shou-hua; Lan, Qin-ying

    2010-11-01

    In the study of population dynamics of Orchidaceae, demographic analysis can make us better understand the spatiotemporal variation of plant individuals, the core of the population dynamics study. Nevertheless, many orchid species have an epiphytic or lithophytic habit, which predisposes them to a discrete or patchy distribution. In this case, metapopulation study is a good method to judge the protective scale of the population by analyzing the extent of gene flow among patches. In addition, long-term observation is needed to obtain reliable information on the life history and population dynamics of Orchidaceae, and to understand the relationships between the spatiotemporal variation and functioning of orchid population in certain environmental conditions. As for the short-term study, it's essential for a better understanding of the relationships between the structurally dependent plants and the communities in which they are fund. This paper reviewed the research advances in the population dynamics of Orchidaceae from the viewpoints of the population ecology and ecological characteristics of Orchidaceae.

  17. Consequence of a sudden wind event on the dynamics of a coastal phytoplankton community: an insight into specific population growth rates using a single cell high frequency approach

    PubMed Central

    Dugenne, Mathilde; Thyssen, Melilotus; Nerini, David; Mante, Claude; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Garcia, Nicole; Garcia, Fabrice; Grégori, Gérald J.

    2014-01-01

    Phytoplankton is a key component in marine ecosystems. It is responsible for most of the marine primary production, particularly in eutrophic lagoons, where it frequently blooms. Because they are very sensitive to their environment, the dynamics of these microbial communities has to be observed over different time scales, however, assessment of short term variability is often out of reach of traditional monitoring methods. To overcome these limitations, we set up a Cytosense automated flow cytometer (Cytobuoy b.v.), designed for high frequency monitoring of phytoplankton composition, abundance, cell size, and pigment content, in one of the largest Mediterranean lagoons, the Berre lagoon (South-Eastern France). During October 2011, it recorded the cell optical properties of 12 groups of pico-, nano-, and microphytoplankton. Daily variations in the cluster optical properties were consistent with individual changes observed using microscopic imaging, during the cell cycle. We therefore used an adaptation of the size-structured matrix population model, developed by Sosik et al. (2003) to process the single cell analysis of the clusters and estimate the division rates of 2 dinoflagellate populations before, during, and after a strong wind event. The increase in the estimated in situ daily cluster growth rates suggest that physiological changes in the cells can prevail over the response of abundance. PMID:25309523

  18. Can dynamical systems approach turbulence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmes, Philip

    I review some ideas and methods from dynamical systems theory and discuss applications, actual and potential, to the study of fully developed turbulent flows in an open system: the wall region of a boundary layer. After a brief account of applications to a closed flow system, the approach I concentrate on attempts a marriage between statistical methods and deterministic dynamical systems, both orderly and chaotic. Specifically, coherent structures are identified with combinations of certain basis functions using the proper orthogonal decomposition. A relatively low dimensional ordinary differential equation describing the dynamical interactions of a set of these spatially organized structures is then derived by Galerkin projection of the Navier-Stokes equations. The resulting system is optimal in the sense that it retains the greatest turbulent kinetic energy, in a time averaged sense, among all projections of the same dimension. The model is analyzed using the methods of dynamical systems and symmetries are found to play a crucial rôle. In particular, structurally and asymptotically stable heteroclinic cycles emerge as a common feature in models of various dimensions and orbits attracted to these cycles lead to solutions exhibiting intermittent, violent "events," which appear to reproduce key features of the bursting process. I speculate on the validity of this approach, the "understanding" of turbulent processes it offers and on how some of the gaps in the procedure might be bridged. I do not suggest that this is the only way in which dynamical systems methods can be used, but it is one which seems worth pursuing.

  19. Hidden process models for animal population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Newman, K B; Buckland, S T; Lindley, S T; Thomas, L; Fernández, C

    2006-02-01

    Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer-intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha).

  20. [Does the population approach increase health inequality? Vulnerable population approach as an alternative strategy].

    PubMed

    Fukuda, Yoshiharu

    2008-07-01

    The population approach is well recognized as an effective strategy to improve population health, as well as the population-at-risk approach. It aims to decrease risk exposure of the total population through a change of contextual conditions. However, the population approach has the possibility of increasing health inequality because of variation in the effectiveness of the strategy in accordance with the risk exposure. This paper proposes the "vulnerable population approach" as an alternative and supplemental strategy. It aims to decrease health inequalities between socially defined groups, by shifting the distribution of a lower level of risk exposure of the groups through changes in social and environmental conditions that make groups at higher risk. No interventional approach can be singly applied to all health problems. To improve population health, it is important to select the most effective strategy among the three approaches, considering their advantages and limitations, and to adopt a suitable combination of different approaches.

  1. Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2012-01-01

    The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

  2. Detection, Diversity, and Population Dynamics of Waterborne Phytophthora ramorum Populations.

    PubMed

    Eyre, C A; Garbelotto, M

    2015-01-01

    Sudden oak death, the tree disease caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has significant environmental and economic impacts on natural forests on the U.S. west coast, plantations in the United Kingdom, and in the worldwide nursery trade. Stream baiting is vital for monitoring and early detection of the pathogen in high-risk areas and is performed routinely; however, little is known about the nature of water-borne P. ramorum populations. Two drainages in an infested California forest were monitored intensively using stream-baiting for 2 years between 2009 and 2011. Pathogen presence was determined both by isolation and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from symptomatic bait leaves. Isolates were analyzed using simple sequence repeats to study population dynamics and genetic structure through time. Isolation was successful primarily only during spring conditions, while PCR extended the period of pathogen detection to most of the year. Water populations were extremely diverse, and changed between seasons and years. A few abundant genotypes dominated the water during conditions considered optimal for aerial populations, and matched those dominant in aerial populations. Temporal patterns of genotypic diversification and evenness were identical among aerial, soil, and water populations, indicating that all three substrates are part of the same epidemiological cycle, strongly influenced by rainfall and sporulation on leaves. However, there was structuring between substrates, likely arising due to reduced selection pressure in the water. Additionally, water populations showed wholesale mixing of genotypes without the evident spatial autocorrelation present in leaf and soil populations.

  3. Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

    2016-10-01

    Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

  4. Animal population dynamics: Identification of critical components

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Pikitch, E.K.

    1989-01-01

    There is a growing interest in the use of population dynamics models in environmental risk assessment and the promulgation of environmental regulatory policies. Unfortunately, because of species and areal differences in the physical and biotic influences on population dynamics, such models must almost inevitably be both complex and species- or site-specific. Given the emormous variety of species and sites of potential concern, this fact presents a problem; it simply is not possible to construct models for all species and circumstances. Therefore, it is useful, before building predictive population models, to discover what input parameters are of critical importance to the desired output. This information should enable the construction of simpler and more generalizable models. As a first step, it is useful to consider population models as composed to two, partly separable classes, one comprising the purely mechanical descriptors of dynamics from given demographic parameter values, and the other describing the modulation of the demographic parameters by environmental factors (changes in physical environment, species interactions, pathogens, xenobiotic chemicals). This division permits sensitivity analyses to be run on the first of these classes, providing guidance for subsequent model simplification. We here apply such a sensitivity analysis to network models of mammalian and avian population dynamics.

  5. Monitoring coyote population dynamics by genotyping faeces.

    PubMed

    Prugh, L R; Ritland, C E; Arthur, S M; Krebs, C J

    2005-04-01

    Reliable population estimates are necessary for effective conservation and management, and faecal genotyping has been used successfully to estimate the population size of several elusive mammalian species. Information such as changes in population size over time and survival rates, however, are often more useful for conservation biology than single population estimates. We evaluated the use of faecal genotyping as a tool for monitoring long-term population dynamics, using coyotes (Canis latrans) in the Alaska Range as a case study. We obtained 544 genotypes from 56 coyotes over 3 years (2000-2002). Tissue samples from all 15 radio-collared coyotes in our study area had > or = 1 matching faecal genotypes. We used flexible maximum-likelihood models to study coyote population dynamics, and we tested model performance against radio telemetry data. The staple prey of coyotes, snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), dramatically declined during this study, and the coyote population declined nearly two-fold with a 1(1/2)-year time lag. Survival rates declined the year after hares crashed but recovered the following year. We conclude that long-term monitoring of elusive species using faecal genotyping is feasible and can provide data that are useful for wildlife conservation and management. We highlight some drawbacks of standard open-population models, such as low precision and the requirement of discrete sampling intervals, and we suggest that the development of open models designed for continuously collected data would enhance the utility of faecal genotyping as a monitoring tool.

  6. Irruptive population dynamics in Yellowstone pronghorn.

    PubMed

    White, P J; Bruggeman, Jason E; Garrott, Robert A

    2007-09-01

    Irruptive population dynamics appear to be widespread in large herbivore populations, but there are few empirical examples from long time series with small measurement error and minimal harvests. We analyzed an 89-year time series of counts and known removals for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in Yellowstone National Park of the western United States during 1918-2006 using a suite of density-dependent, density-independent, and irruptive models to determine if the population exhibited irruptive dynamics. Information-theoretic model comparison techniques strongly supported irruptive population dynamics (Leopold model) and density dependence during 1918-1946, with the growth rate slowing after counts exceeded 600 animals. Concerns about sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) degradation led to removals of >1100 pronghorn during 1947-1966, and counts decreased from approximately 700 to 150. The best models for this period (Gompertz, Ricker) suggested that culls replaced intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms. Contrary to expectations, the population did not exhibit enhanced demographic vigor soon after the termination of the harvest program, with counts remaining between 100 and 190 animals during 1967 1981. However, the population irrupted (Caughley model with a one-year lag) to a peak abundance of approximately 600 pronghorn during 1982-1991, with a slowing in growth rate as counts exceeded 500. Numbers crashed to 235 pronghorn during 1992-1995, perhaps because important food resources (e.g., sagebrush) on the winter range were severely diminished by high densities of browsing elk, mule deer, and pronghorn. Pronghorn numbers remained relatively constant during 1996-2006, at a level (196-235) lower than peak abundance, but higher than numbers following the release from culling. The dynamics of this population supported the paradigm that irruption is a fundamental pattern of growth in many populations of large herbivores with high fecundity and delayed density-dependent effects

  7. Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses

    PubMed Central

    Röther, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.

    2014-01-01

    In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223

  8. A polyphasic approach to study the dynamics of microbial population of an organic wheat sourdough during its conversion to gluten-free sourdough.

    PubMed

    Lhomme, Emilie; Mezaize, Sandra; Ducasse, Maren Bonnand; Chiron, Hubert; Champomier-Vergès, Marie-Christine; Chaillou, Stéphane; Zagorec, Monique; Dousset, Xavier; Onno, Bernard

    2014-03-01

    To develop a method for organic gluten-free (GF) sourdough bread production, a long-term and original wheat sourdough was refreshed with GF flours. The dynamics of the sourdough microbiota during five months of back-slopping were analyzed by classical enumeration and molecular methods, including PCR-temporal temperature gel electrophoresis (PCR-TTGE), multiplex PCR, and pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The results showed that the yeast counts remained constant, although Saccharomyces cerevisiae, present in the initial wheat sourdough, was no longer detected in the GF sourdough, while lactic acid bacteria (LAB) counts increased consistently. In the first phase, which was aimed at obtaining a GF sourdough from wheat sourdough, Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis, L. plantarum, and L. spicheri were the main LAB species detected. During the second phase, aimed at maintaining the GF sourdough, the L. plantarum and L. spicheri populations decreased whereas L. sanfranciscensis persisted and L. sakei became the predominant species. Multiplex PCRs also revealed the presence of several L. sakei strains in the GF sourdough. In a search for the origin of the LAB species, PCR-TTGE was performed on the flour samples but only L. sanfranciscensis was detected, suggesting a flour origin for this typical sourdough species. Thus, while replacement of the wheat flour by GF flour influenced the sourdough microbiota, some of the original sourdough LAB and yeast species remained in the GF sourdough.

  9. Sustainability of culture-driven population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ghirlanda, Stefano; Enquist, Magnus; Perc, Matjaz

    2010-05-01

    We consider models of the interactions between human population dynamics and cultural evolution, asking whether they predict sustainable or unsustainable patterns of growth. Phenomenological models predict either unsustainable population growth or stabilization in the near future. The latter prediction, however, is based on extrapolation of current demographic trends and does not take into account causal processes of demographic and cultural dynamics. Most existing causal models assume (or derive from simplified models of the economy) a positive feedback between cultural evolution and demographic growth, and predict unlimited growth in both culture and population. We augment these models taking into account that: (1) cultural transmission is not perfect, i.e., culture can be lost; (2) culture does not always promote population growth. We show that taking these factors into account can cause radically different model behavior, such as population extinction rather than stability, and extinction rather than growth. We conclude that all models agree that a population capable of maintaining a large amount of culture, including a powerful technology, runs a high risk of being unsustainable. We suggest that future work must address more explicitly both the dynamics of resource consumption and the cultural evolution of beliefs implicated in reproductive behavior (e.g., ideas about the preferred family size) and in resource use (e.g., environmentalist stances).

  10. Dispersive models describing mosquitoes’ population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamashita, W. M. S.; Takahashi, L. T.; Chapiro, G.

    2016-08-01

    The global incidences of dengue and, more recently, zica virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. Understanding this dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. This work is based on the study of nonlinear mathematical models dealing with the life cycle of the dengue mosquito using partial differential equations. We investigate the existence of traveling wave solutions using semi-analytical method combining dynamical systems techniques and numerical integration. Obtained solutions are validated through numerical simulations using finite difference schemes.

  11. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Fallah-Fini, Saeideh; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2013-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model.

  12. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models

    PubMed Central

    Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2014-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

  13. Ecosystem engineers: feedback and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Cuddington, K; Wilson, W G; Hastings, A

    2009-04-01

    All organisms alter their abiotic environment, but ecosystem engineers are species with abiotic effects that may have to be explicitly accounted for when making predictions about population and community dynamics. The goal of this analysis is to identify those conditions in which engineering leads to population dynamics that are qualitatively different than one would predict using models that incorporate only biotic interactions. We present a simple model coupling an ecosystem engineer and the abiotic environment. We assume that the engineer alters environmental conditions at a rate dependent on engineer density and that the environment decays back to original conditions at an exponential rate. We determine when the feedback to population dynamics through environmental state can lead to altered equilibrium densities, bistability, or runaway growth of the engineer population. The conditions leading to changes in dynamics, such as susceptibility of a system to engineering or alteration of density-dependent and density-independent controls, define cases in which the engineering concept is essential for ecological understanding.

  14. A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea

    PubMed Central

    Papworth, Danny J.; Marini, Simone; Conversi, Alessandra

    2016-01-01

    Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this work, we have researched and developed a novel methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for distinguishing which drivers can influence species abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters used or on the underlying mathematical relationships among them. We have validated this methodology applying it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86 biological, hydrographical and climatic time series, ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation, to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011, during which period there was an ecological regime shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights the importance of considering both physical and trophic drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting that when there is availability of both data types, local drivers are more important. The results produced by the GP based procedure are consistent with the literature published to date, and validate the use of GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that this methodology holds promises for the highly non-linear field of ecology. PMID:27366910

  15. A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea.

    PubMed

    Papworth, Danny J; Marini, Simone; Conversi, Alessandra

    2016-01-01

    Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this work, we have researched and developed a novel methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for distinguishing which drivers can influence species abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters used or on the underlying mathematical relationships among them. We have validated this methodology applying it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86 biological, hydrographical and climatic time series, ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation, to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011, during which period there was an ecological regime shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights the importance of considering both physical and trophic drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting that when there is availability of both data types, local drivers are more important. The results produced by the GP based procedure are consistent with the literature published to date, and validate the use of GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that this methodology holds promises for the highly non-linear field of ecology.

  16. Dynamics of Sequence -Discrete Bacterial Populations Inferred Using Metagenomes

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, Sarah; Bendall, Matthew; Kang, Dongwan; Froula, Jeff; Egan, Rob; Chan, Leong-Keat; Tringe, Susannah; McMahon, Katherine; Malmstrom, Rex

    2014-03-14

    From a multi-year metagenomic time series of two dissimilar Wisconsin lakes we have assembled dozens of genomes using a novel approach that bins contigs into distinct genome based on sequence composition, e.g. kmer frequencies, and contig coverage patterns at various times points. Next, we investigated how these genomes, which represent sequence-discrete bacterial populations, evolved over time and used the time series to discover the population dynamics. For example, we explored changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies as well as patterns of gene gain and loss in multiple populations. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in some populations during the course of this study, suggesting these populations may have experienced genome-wide selective sweeps. This represents the first direct, time-resolved observations of periodic selection in natural populations, a key process predicted by the ecotype model of bacterial diversification.

  17. Dynamic analysis of grinding using the population balance model

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, M.C. |

    1995-12-31

    The dynamic behavior of batch mill, CSTR mill, and a closed grinding network consisting of a mill, sump, and cyclone was analyzed using the dynamic population balance model (PBM). The dynamic solution of the PBM of a batch, CSTR and a closed grinding network consisting of a mill, sump, and cyclone forms the basis of the dynamic analysis presented here. Two numerical dynamic solution approaches were used. These are: (1) providing additional constraints on breakage selection functions or (2) performing the Arbiter-Bhrany (or other) normalization of the selection functions. Actual experimental anthracite batch grinding data was used to obtain the functionality of the batch dynamic mill selection and breakage functions for a real physical system. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for systems of constrained non-linear equations is used to solve the batch dynamic PBM grinding equations to obtain the grinding selection and breakage rate functions. The mill, sump and hydrocyclone were modeled as a CSTR operating at various retention times. Batch dynamic PBM data was used to provide the mill kinetic and breakage selection function data. Different dynamic solutions were obtained depending on the numerical approach used. Each solution approach to a dynamic PBM with transport, while giving the same prediction for a single batch grinding time, gives different solutions or predictions for mill composition for other grinding times. This fact makes dynamic nodal analysis and control problematic. The fact that the constraint solution approach gives a solution may suggest that normalization for closed networks is not necessary. Differences in solutions to the PBM cannot be excused away by inaccuracies in the data used to model the grinding phenomenon.

  18. Dynamics of newly established elk populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W.

    2007-01-01

    The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

  19. A general method for modeling population dynamics and its applications.

    PubMed

    Shestopaloff, Yuri K

    2013-12-01

    Studying populations, be it a microbe colony or mankind, is important for understanding how complex systems evolve and exist. Such knowledge also often provides insights into evolution, history and different aspects of human life. By and large, populations' prosperity and decline is about transformation of certain resources into quantity and other characteristics of populations through growth, replication, expansion and acquisition of resources. We introduce a general model of population change, applicable to different types of populations, which interconnects numerous factors influencing population dynamics, such as nutrient influx and nutrient consumption, reproduction period, reproduction rate, etc. It is also possible to take into account specific growth features of individual organisms. We considered two recently discovered distinct growth scenarios: first, when organisms do not change their grown mass regardless of nutrients availability, and the second when organisms can reduce their grown mass by several times in a nutritionally poor environment. We found that nutrient supply and reproduction period are two major factors influencing the shape of population growth curves. There is also a difference in population dynamics between these two groups. Organisms belonging to the second group are significantly more adaptive to reduction of nutrients and far more resistant to extinction. Also, such organisms have substantially more frequent and lesser in amplitude fluctuations of population quantity for the same periodic nutrient supply (compared to the first group). Proposed model allows adequately describing virtually any possible growth scenario, including complex ones with periodic and irregular nutrient supply and other changing parameters, which present approaches cannot do.

  20. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    PubMed

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  1. The Population Health Approach in Historical Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Szreter, Simon

    2003-01-01

    The origin of the population health approach is an historic debate over the relationship between economic growth and human health. In Britain and France, the Industrial Revolution disrupted population health and stimulated pioneering epidemiological studies, informing the early preventive public health movement. A century-long process of political adjustment between the forces of liberal democracy and propertied interests ensued. The 20th-century welfare states resulted as complex political mechanisms for converting economic growth into enhanced population health. However, the rise of a “neoliberal” agenda, denigrating the role of government, has once again brought to the fore the importance of prevention and a population health approach to map and publicize the health impacts of this new phase of “global” economic growth. PMID:12604486

  2. The population health approach in historical perspective.

    PubMed

    Szreter, Simon

    2003-03-01

    The origin of the population health approach is an historic debate over the relationship between economic growth and human health. In Britain and France, the Industrial Revolution disrupted population health and stimulated pioneering epidemiological studies, informing the early preventive public health movement. A century-long process of political adjustment between the forces of liberal democracy and propertied interests ensued. The 20th-century welfare states resulted as complex political mechanisms for converting economic growth into enhanced population health. However, the rise of a "neoliberal" agenda, denigrating the role of government, has once again brought to the fore the importance of prevention and a population health approach to map and publicize the health impacts of this new phase of "global" economic growth.

  3. Population dynamics in non-homogeneous environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alards, Kim M. J.; Tesser, Francesca; Toschi, Federico

    2014-11-01

    For organisms living in aquatic ecosystems the presence of fluid transport can have a strong influence on the dynamics of populations and on evolution of species. In particular, displacements due to self-propulsion, summed up with turbulent dispersion at larger scales, strongly influence the local densities and thus population and genetic dynamics. Real marine environments are furthermore characterized by a high degree of non-homogeneities. In the case of population fronts propagating in ``fast'' turbulence, with respect to the population duplication time, the flow effect can be studied by replacing the microscopic diffusivity with an effective turbulent diffusivity. In the opposite case of ``slow'' turbulence the advection by the flow has to be considered locally. Here we employ numerical simulations to study the influence of non-homogeneities in the diffusion coefficient of reacting individuals of different species expanding in a 2 dimensional space. Moreover, to explore the influence of advection, we consider a population expanding in the presence of simple velocity fields like cellular flows. The output is analyzed in terms of front roughness, front shape, propagation speed and, concerning the genetics, by means of heterozygosity and local and global extinction probabilities.

  4. Dynamics of protein distributions in cell populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brenner, Naama; Farkash, Keren; Braun, Erez

    2006-09-01

    A population of cells exhibits wide phenotypic variation even if it is genetically homogeneous. In particular, individual cells differ from one another in the amount of protein they express under a given regulatory system under fixed conditions. Here we study how protein distributions in a population of the yeast S. cerevisiae are shaped by a balance of processes: protein production—an intracellular process—and protein dilution due to cell division—a population process. We measure protein distributions by employing reporter green fluorescence protein (gfp) under the regulation of the yeast GAL system under conditions where it is metabolically essential. Cell populations are grown in chemostats, thus allowing control of the environment and stable measurements of distribution dynamics over many generations. Despite the essential functional role of the GAL system in a pure galactose medium, steady-state distributions are found to be universally broad, with exponential tails and a large standard-deviation-to-mean ratio. Under several different perturbations the dynamics of the distribution is observed to be asymmetric, with a much longer time to build a wide expression distribution from below compared with a fast relaxation of the distribution toward steady state from above. These results show that the main features of the protein distributions are largely determined by population effects and are less sensitive to the intracellular biochemical noise.

  5. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t < t1 = κb) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t_1\\lt t\\lt t_2\\propto \\kappa_a and for which θ0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  6. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  7. Metamodels for transdisciplinary analysis of wildlife population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lacy, Robert C; Miller, Philip S; Nyhus, Philip J; Pollak, J P; Raboy, Becky E; Zeigler, Sara L

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological - physical - human systems. We describe a "metamodel" approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples - one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics - to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation.

  8. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  9. Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  10. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  11. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  12. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  13. Population clocks: motor timing with neural dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Buonomano, Dean V.; Laje, Rodrigo

    2010-01-01

    An understanding of sensory and motor processing will require elucidation of the mechanisms by which the brain tells time. Open questions relate to whether timing relies on dedicated or intrinsic mechanisms and whether distinct mechanisms underlie timing across scales and modalities. Although experimental and theoretical studies support the notion that neural circuits are intrinsically capable of sensory timing on short scales, few general models of motor timing have been proposed. For one class of models, population clocks, it is proposed that time is encoded in the time-varying patterns of activity of a population of neurons. We argue that population clocks emerge from the internal dynamics of recurrently connected networks, are biologically realistic and account for many aspects of motor timing. PMID:20889368

  14. Relating individual behaviour to population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Sumpter, D J; Broomhead, D S

    2001-05-07

    How do the behavioural interactions between individuals in an ecological system produce the global population dynamics of that system? We present a stochastic individual-based model of the reproductive cycle of the mite Varroa jacobsoni, a parasite of honeybees. The model has the interesting property in that its population level behaviour is approximated extremely accurately by the exponential logistic equation or Ricker map. We demonstrated how this approximation is obtained mathematically and how the parameters of the exponential logistic equation can be written in terms of the parameters of the individual-based model. Our procedure demonstrates, in at least one case, how study of animal ecology at an individual level can be used to derive global models which predict population change over time.

  15. Semiclassical approaches to nuclear dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magner, A. G.; Gorpinchenko, D. V.; Bartel, J.

    2017-01-01

    The extended Gutzwiller trajectory approach is presented for the semiclassical description of nuclear collective dynamics, in line with the main topics of the fruitful activity of V.G. Solovjov. Within the Fermi-liquid droplet model, the leptodermous effective surface approximation was applied to calculations of energies, sum rules, and transition densities for the neutron-proton asymmetry of the isovector giant-dipole resonance and found to be in good agreement with the experimental data. By using the Strutinsky shell correctionmethod, the semiclassical collective transport coefficients, such as nuclear inertia, friction, stiffness, and moments of inertia, can be derived beyond the quantum perturbation approximation of the response function theory and the cranking model. The averaged particle-number dependences of the low-lying collective vibrational states are described in good agreement with the basic experimental data, mainly due to the enhancement of the collective inertia as compared to its irrotational flow value. Shell components of the moment of inertia are derived in terms of the periodic-orbit free-energy shell corrections. A good agreement between the semiclassical extended Thomas-Fermi moments of inertia with shell corrections and the quantum results is obtained for different nuclear deformations and particle numbers. Shell effects are shown to be exponentially dampted out with increasing temperature in all the transport coefficients.

  16. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.

    PubMed

    Deville, Pierre; Linard, Catherine; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R; Gaughan, Andrea E; Blondel, Vincent D; Tatem, Andrew J

    2014-11-11

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography.

  17. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

    PubMed Central

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

    2014-01-01

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

  18. Hidden hysteresis – population dynamics can obscure gene network dynamics

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Positive feedback is a common motif in gene regulatory networks. It can be used in synthetic networks as an amplifier to increase the level of gene expression, as well as a nonlinear module to create bistable gene networks that display hysteresis in response to a given stimulus. Using a synthetic positive feedback-based tetracycline sensor in E. coli, we show that the population dynamics of a cell culture has a profound effect on the observed hysteretic response of a population of cells with this synthetic gene circuit. Results The amount of observable hysteresis in a cell culture harboring the gene circuit depended on the initial concentration of cells within the culture. The magnitude of the hysteresis observed was inversely related to the dilution procedure used to inoculate the subcultures; the higher the dilution of the cell culture, lower was the observed hysteresis of that culture at steady state. Although the behavior of the gene circuit in individual cells did not change significantly in the different subcultures, the proportion of cells exhibiting high levels of steady-state gene expression did change. Although the interrelated kinetics of gene expression and cell growth are unpredictable at first sight, we were able to resolve the surprising dilution-dependent hysteresis as a result of two interrelated phenomena - the stochastic switching between the ON and OFF phenotypes that led to the cumulative failure of the gene circuit over time, and the nonlinear, logistic growth of the cell in the batch culture. Conclusions These findings reinforce the fact that population dynamics cannot be ignored in analyzing the dynamics of gene networks. Indeed population dynamics may play a significant role in the manifestation of bistability and hysteresis, and is an important consideration when designing synthetic gene circuits intended for long-term application. PMID:23800122

  19. Noise can prevent onset of chaos in spatiotemporal population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrovskii, S.; Morozov, A.; Malchow, H.; Sieber, M.

    2010-11-01

    Many theoretical approaches predict the dynamics of interacting populations to be chaotic but that has very rarely been observed in ecological data. It has therefore risen a question about factors that can prevent the onset of chaos by, for instance, making the population fluctuations synchronized over the whole habitat. One such factor is stochasticity. The so-called Moran effect predicts that a spatially correlated noise can synchronize the local population dynamics in a spatially discrete system, thus preventing the onset of spatiotemporal chaos. On the whole, however, the issue of noise has remained controversial and insufficiently understood. In particular, a well-built nonspatial theory infers that noise enhances chaos by making the system more sensitive to the initial conditions. In this paper, we address the problem of the interplay between deterministic dynamics and noise by considering a spatially explicit predator-prey system where some parameters are affected by noise. Our findings are rather counter-intuitive. We show that a small noise (i.e. preserving the deterministic skeleton) can indeed synchronize the population oscillations throughout space and hence keep the dynamics regular, but the dependence of the chaos prevention probability on the noise intensity is of resonance type. Once chaos has developed, it appears to be stable with respect to a small noise but it can be suppressed by a large noise. Finally, we show that our results are in a good qualitative agreement with some available field data.

  20. Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

    2002-01-01

    We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

  1. Population Code Dynamics in Categorical Perception

    PubMed Central

    Tajima, Chihiro I.; Tajima, Satohiro; Koida, Kowa; Komatsu, Hidehiko; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Suzuki, Hideyuki

    2016-01-01

    Categorical perception is a ubiquitous function in sensory information processing, and is reported to have important influences on the recognition of presented and/or memorized stimuli. However, such complex interactions among categorical perception and other aspects of sensory processing have not been explained well in a unified manner. Here, we propose a recurrent neural network model to process categorical information of stimuli, which approximately realizes a hierarchical Bayesian estimation on stimuli. The model accounts for a wide variety of neurophysiological and cognitive phenomena in a consistent framework. In particular, the reported complexity of categorical effects, including (i) task-dependent modulation of neural response, (ii) clustering of neural population representation, (iii) temporal evolution of perceptual color memory, and (iv) a non-uniform discrimination threshold, are explained as different aspects of a single model. Moreover, we directly examine key model behaviors in the monkey visual cortex by analyzing neural population dynamics during categorization and discrimination of color stimuli. We find that the categorical task causes temporally-evolving biases in the neuronal population representations toward the focal colors, which supports the proposed model. These results suggest that categorical perception can be achieved by recurrent neural dynamics that approximates optimal probabilistic inference in the changing environment. PMID:26935275

  2. Optimal birth control of population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Chan, W L; Guo, B Z

    1989-11-01

    The authors studied optimal birth control policies for an age-structured population of McKendrick type which is a distributed parameter system involving 1st order partial differential equations with nonlocal bilinear boundary control. The functional analytic approach of Dubovitskii and Milyutin is adopted in the investigation. Maximum principles for problems with a free end condition and fixed final horizon are developed, and the time optimal control problems, the problem with target sets, and infinite planning horizon case are investigated.

  3. Monitoring microbial population dynamics at low densities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Julou, Thomas; Desprat, Nicolas; Bensimon, David; Croquette, Vincent

    2012-07-01

    We propose a new and simple method for the measurement of microbial concentrations in highly diluted cultures. This method is based on an analysis of the intensity fluctuations of light scattered by microbial cells under laser illumination. Two possible measurement strategies are identified and compared using simulations and measurements of the concentration of gold nanoparticles. Based on this comparison, we show that the concentration of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultures can be easily measured in situ across a concentration range that spans five orders of magnitude. The lowest measurable concentration is three orders of magnitude (1000×) smaller than in current optical density measurements. We show further that this method can also be used to measure the concentration of fluorescent microbial cells. In practice, this new method is well suited to monitor the dynamics of population growth at early colonization of a liquid culture medium. The dynamic data thus obtained are particularly relevant for microbial ecology studies.

  4. Mosquito populations dynamics associated with climate variations.

    PubMed

    Wilke, André Barretto Bruno; Medeiros-Sousa, Antônio Ralph; Ceretti-Junior, Walter; Marrelli, Mauro Toledo

    2017-02-01

    Mosquitoes are responsible for the transmission of numerous serious pathogens. Members of the Aedes and Culex genera, which include many important vectors of mosquito-borne diseases, are highly invasive and adapted to man-made environments. They are spread around the world involuntarily by humans and are highly adapted to urbanized environments, where they are exposed to climate-related abundance drivers. We investigated Culicidae fauna in two urban parks in the city of São Paulo to analyze the correlations between climatic variables and the population dynamics of mosquitoes in these urban areas. Mosquitoes were collected monthly over one year, and sampling sufficiency was evaluated after morphological identification of the specimens. The average monthly temperature and accumulated rainfall for the collection month and previous month were used to explain climate-related abundance drivers for the six most abundant species (Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Aedes fluviatilis, Aedes scapularis, Culex nigripalpus and Culex quinquefasciatus) and then analyzed using generalized linear statistical models and the Akaike Information Criteria corrected for small samples (AICc). The strength of evidence in favor of each model was evaluated using Akaike weights, and the explanatory model power was measured by McFadden's Pseudo-R(2). Associations between climate and mosquito abundance were found in both parks, indicating that predictive models based on climate variables can provide important information on mosquito population dynamics. We also found that this association is species-dependent. Urbanization processes increase the abundance of a few mosquito species that are well adapted to man-made environments and some of which are important vectors of pathogens. Predictive models for abundance based on climate variables may help elucidate the population dynamics of urban mosquitoes and their impact on the risk of disease transmission, allowing better predictive scenarios to be

  5. Genomic Approaches with Natural Fish Populations

    PubMed Central

    Oleksiak, M. F.

    2011-01-01

    Natural populations versus inbred stocks provide a much richer resource for identifying the effects of nucleotide substitutions because natural populations have greater polymorphism. Additionally, natural populations offer an advantage over most common research organisms because they are subject to natural selection, and analyses of these adaptations can be used to identify biologically important changes. Among fishes, these analyses are enhanced by having a wide diversity of species (> 28,000 species, more than any other group of vertebrates) living in a huge range of environments (from below freezing to > 46° C, in fresh water to salinities > 40 ppt.). Moreover, fishes exhibit many different life history and reproductive strategies and have many different phenotypes and social structures. While fishes provide numerous advantages over other vertebrate models, there is still a dearth of available genomic tools for fishes. Fish make up approximately half of all known vertebrate species, yet less than 0.2% of fish species have significant genomic resources. Nonetheless, genomic approaches with fishes have provided some of the first measures of individual variation in gene expression and insights in to environmental and ecological adaptations. Thus, genomic approaches with natural fish populations have the potential to revolutionize fundamental studies of diverse fish species that offer myriad ecological and evolutionary questions. PMID:20409163

  6. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  7. Assessing the dynamics of wild populations

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Lotka's equations summarizing population dynamics can be approximated by functional models of the survivorship and reproductive curves, incorporating three stages of survival and reproduction, respectively. An abbreviated form uses a single reproductive parameter and two survival values. Survivorship and reproductive curves were fitted to data on northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), domestic and feral sheep, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), free-ranging horses, and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). Data for 10 species suggest a useful relationship between senescence parameters. A bias due to senescence may lead to serious underestimation of survival rates. Observed annual rates of increase of 18-20% for feral horses, 16% for southern fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), and 60% for white-tailed deer are compatible with observed population parameters. 43 references, 11 figures, 3 tables.

  8. Dynamically hot galaxies. II - Global stellar populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bender, Ralf; Burstein, David; Faber, S. M.

    1993-01-01

    The global relationship between the stellar populations and the structural properties of dynamically hot galaxies (DHGs) is investigated using the same sample as was analyzed by Bender et al. (1992), which includes giant ellipticals, low-luminosity ellipticals, compact ellipticals, diffuse dwarf ellipticals, dwarf spheroidals, and bulges. It was found that all DHGs follow a single relationship between global stellar population (represented by Mg2 index or B-V color) and central velocity dispersion sigma(0), and that the Mg2-sigma(0) relation is significantly tighter than the relation between the Mg2 index and absolute luminosity. The relation between central Mg2 index and bulk B-V color was also found to be tight.

  9. Hamiltonian approach to slip-stacking dynamics

    DOE PAGES

    Lee, S. Y.; Ng, K. Y.

    2017-06-29

    Hamiltonian dynamics has been applied to study the slip-stacking dynamics. The canonical-perturbation method is employed to obtain the second-harmonic correction term in the slip-stacking Hamiltonian. The Hamiltonian approach provides a clear optimal method for choosing the slip-stacking parameter and improving stacking efficiency. The dynamics are applied specifically to the Fermilab Booster-Recycler complex. As a result, the dynamics can also be applied to other accelerator complexes.

  10. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

    PubMed Central

    Deville, Pierre; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Blondel, Vincent D.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

  11. Population Dynamics of the Stationary Phase Utilizing the ARGOS Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Algarni, S.; Charest, A. J.; Iannacchione, G. S.

    2015-03-01

    The Area Recorded Generalized Optical Scattering (ARGOS) approach to light scattering employs large image capture array allowing for a well-defined geometry in which images may be manipulated to extract structure with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector (I(q)) and dynamics with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector over time (I (q,t)). The ARGOS method provides morphological dynamics noninvasively over a long time period and allows for a variety of aqueous conditions. This is important because traditional growth models do not provide for conditions similar to the natural environment. The present study found that the population dynamics of bacteria do not follow a traditional growth model and that the ARGOS method allowed for the observation of bacterial changes in terms of individual particles and population dynamics in real time. The observations of relative total intensity suggest that there is no stationary phase and that the bacterial population demonstrates sinusoidal type patterns consistently subsequent to the log phase growth. These observation were compared to shape changes by modeling fractal dimension and size changes by modeling effective radius.

  12. Population, human resources and development planning: towards an integrated approach.

    PubMed

    Farooq, G M

    1981-01-01

    An attempt is made in this discussion to outline in broad terms an analytical and operational framework for integrating population and human resources related issues. 3 sections provide a rationale for comprehensive population, human resources, and development planning; contain a brief description of the kind of policy research needed as part of the analytical base for comprehensive planning; and describe proposed institutional arrangements under which the national effort could be organized and coordinated and the related programs implemented. For comprehensive development planning, it is essential to consider population problems in their broad perspective. Population problems are related to the prevailing levels of mortality, health and nutrition, population movements, levels of unemployment, underemployment and child labor, women's roles, income inequalities, incidence of poverty, and quality of environment and the like, as well as, population growth. A model for the integration of population variables into national socioeconomic planning would involve, in increasing order of complexity, the following types of analytical work: detailed demographic estimates and projections; translation of the consequences of population dynamics into estimates of social and economic needs for the purpose of sectoral planning; and research on the more important demographic, social, and economic linkages in order to contribute to the formulation of population policies and related measures for influencing population variables directly and the overall development plan, sectoral plans, and individual programs and projects. Some of the more basic studies that would help to establish an appropriate analytical base for a comprehensive planning approach are outlined. A suitable operational framework is required for an effective and integrated approach to population, human resources, and development planning. What is necessary is the establishment of a permanent high level institution

  13. Population Dynamics of Early Visual Cortex during Working Memory.

    PubMed

    Rahmati, Masih; Saber, Golbarg T; Curtis, Clayton E

    2017-10-06

    Although the content of working memory (WM) can be decoded from the spatial patterns of brain activity in early visual cortex, how populations encode WM representations remain unclear. Here, we address this limitation by using a model-based approach that reconstructs the feature encoded by population activity measured with fMRI. Using this approach, we could successfully reconstruct the locations of memory-guided saccade goals based on the pattern of activity in visual cortex during a memory delay. We could reconstruct the saccade goal even when we dissociated the visual stimulus from the saccade goal using a memory-guided antisaccade procedure. By comparing the spatiotemporal population dynamics, we find that the representations in visual cortex are stable but can also evolve from a representation of a remembered visual stimulus to a prospective goal. Moreover, because the representation of the antisaccade goal cannot be the result of bottom-up visual stimulation, it must be evoked by top-down signals presumably originating from frontal and/or parietal cortex. Indeed, we find that trial-by-trial fluctuations in delay period activity in frontal and parietal cortex correlate with the precision with which our model reconstructed the maintained saccade goal based on the pattern of activity in visual cortex. Therefore, the population dynamics in visual cortex encode WM representations, and these representations can be sculpted by top-down signals from frontal and parietal cortex.

  14. Stochasticity and universal dynamics in communicating cellular populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mehta, Pankaj; Allyson Sgro Collaboration; David Schwab Collaboration; Troy Mestler Collaboration; Thomas Gregor Collaboration

    2014-03-01

    A fundamental problem in biology is to understand how biochemical networks within individual cells coordinate and control population-level behaviors. Our knowledge of these biochemical networks is often incomplete, with little known about the underlying kinetic parameters. Here, we present a general modeling approach for overcoming these challenges based on universality. We apply our approach to study the emergence of collective oscillations of the signaling molecule cAMP in populations of the social amoebae Dictyostelium discoideum and show that a simple two-dimensional dynamical system can reproduce signaling dynamics of single cells and successfully predict novel population-level behaviors. We reduce all the important parameters of our model to only two and will study its behavior through a phase diagram. This phase diagram determines conditions under which cells are quiet or oscillating either coherently or incoherently. Furthermore it allows us to study the effect of different model components such as stochasticity, multicellularity and signal preprocessing. A central finding of our model is that Dictyostelium exploit stochasticity within biochemical networks to control population level behaviors.

  15. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    PubMed

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

  16. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  17. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  18. Long-Term Patterns in the Population Dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and Cyanobacteria in a Shallow Reservoir: A Self-Organising Map (SOM) Approach

    PubMed Central

    Wojtal-Frankiewicz, Adrianna; Kruk, Andrzej; Frankiewicz, Piotr; Oleksińska, Zuzanna; Izydorczyk, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    The recognition of long-term patterns in the seasonal dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and cyanobacteria is dependent upon their interactions, the water temperature and the hydrological conditions, which were all investigated between 1999 and 2008 in the lowland Sulejow Reservoir. The biomass of cyanobacteria, densities of D. longispina and L. kindtii, concentration of chlorophyll a and water temperature were assessed weekly from April to October at three sampling stations along the longitudinal reservoir axis. The retention time was calculated using data on the actual water inflow and reservoir volume. A self-organising map (SOM) was used due to high interannual variability in the studied parameters and their often non-linear relationships. Classification of the SOM output neurons into three clusters that grouped the sampling terms with similar biotic states allowed identification of the crucial abiotic factors responsible for the seasonal sequence of events: cluster CL-ExSp (extreme/spring) corresponded to hydrologically unstable cold periods (mostly spring) with extreme values and highly variable abiotic factors, which made abiotic control of the biota dominant; cluster CL-StSm (stable/summer) was associated with ordinary late spring and summer and was characterised by stable non-extreme abiotic conditions, which made biotic interactions more important; and the cluster CL-ExSm (extreme/summer), was associated with late spring/summer and characterised by thermal or hydrological extremes, which weakened the role of biotic factors. The significance of the differences between the SOM sub-clusters was verified by Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunn tests. The importance of the temperature and hydrological regimes as the key plankton-regulating factors in the dam reservoir, as shown by the SOM, was confirmed by the results of canonical correlation analyses (CCA) of each cluster. The demonstrated significance of hydrology in seasonal plankton dynamics

  19. Long-Term Patterns in the Population Dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and Cyanobacteria in a Shallow Reservoir: A Self-Organising Map (SOM) Approach.

    PubMed

    Wojtal-Frankiewicz, Adrianna; Kruk, Andrzej; Frankiewicz, Piotr; Oleksińska, Zuzanna; Izydorczyk, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    The recognition of long-term patterns in the seasonal dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and cyanobacteria is dependent upon their interactions, the water temperature and the hydrological conditions, which were all investigated between 1999 and 2008 in the lowland Sulejow Reservoir. The biomass of cyanobacteria, densities of D. longispina and L. kindtii, concentration of chlorophyll a and water temperature were assessed weekly from April to October at three sampling stations along the longitudinal reservoir axis. The retention time was calculated using data on the actual water inflow and reservoir volume. A self-organising map (SOM) was used due to high interannual variability in the studied parameters and their often non-linear relationships. Classification of the SOM output neurons into three clusters that grouped the sampling terms with similar biotic states allowed identification of the crucial abiotic factors responsible for the seasonal sequence of events: cluster CL-ExSp (extreme/spring) corresponded to hydrologically unstable cold periods (mostly spring) with extreme values and highly variable abiotic factors, which made abiotic control of the biota dominant; cluster CL-StSm (stable/summer) was associated with ordinary late spring and summer and was characterised by stable non-extreme abiotic conditions, which made biotic interactions more important; and the cluster CL-ExSm (extreme/summer), was associated with late spring/summer and characterised by thermal or hydrological extremes, which weakened the role of biotic factors. The significance of the differences between the SOM sub-clusters was verified by Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunn tests. The importance of the temperature and hydrological regimes as the key plankton-regulating factors in the dam reservoir, as shown by the SOM, was confirmed by the results of canonical correlation analyses (CCA) of each cluster. The demonstrated significance of hydrology in seasonal plankton dynamics

  20. Population health diagnosis with an ecohealth approach

    PubMed Central

    Arenas-Monreal, Luz; Cortez-Lugo, Marlene; Parada-Toro, Irene; Pacheco-Magaña, Lilian E; Magaña-Valladares, Laura

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To analyze the characteristics of health diagnosis according to the ecohealth approach in rural and urban communities in Mexico. METHODS Health diagnosis were conducted in La Nopalera, from December 2007 to October 2008, and in Atlihuayan, from December 2010 to October 2011. The research was based on three principles of the ecohealth approach: transdisciplinarity, community participation, gender and equity. To collect information, a joint methodology and several techniques were used to stimulate the participation of inhabitants. The diagnostic exercise was carried out in five phases that went from collecting information to prioritization of problems. RESULTS The constitution of the transdisciplinary team, as well as the participation of the population and the principle of gender/equity were differentials between the communities. In the rural community, the active participation of inhabitants and authorities was achieved and the principles of transdisciplinarity and gender/equity were incorporated. CONCLUSIONS With all the difficulties that entails the boost in participation, the incorporation of gender/equity and transdisciplinarity in health diagnosis allowed a holistic public health approach closer to the needs of the population. PMID:26538099

  1. Population health diagnosis with an ecohealth approach.

    PubMed

    Arenas-Monreal, Luz; Cortez-Lugo, Marlene; Parada-Toro, Irene; Pacheco-Magaña, Lilian E; Magaña-Valladares, Laura

    2015-01-01

    To analyze the characteristics of health diagnosis according to the ecohealth approach in rural and urban communities in Mexico. Health diagnosis were conducted in La Nopalera, from December 2007 to October 2008, and in Atlihuayan, from December 2010 to October 2011. The research was based on three principles of the ecohealth approach: transdisciplinarity, community participation, gender and equity. To collect information, a joint methodology and several techniques were used to stimulate the participation of inhabitants. The diagnostic exercise was carried out in five phases that went from collecting information to prioritization of problems. The constitution of the transdisciplinary team, as well as the participation of the population and the principle of gender/equity were differentials between the communities. In the rural community, the active participation of inhabitants and authorities was achieved and the principles of transdisciplinarity and gender/equity were incorporated. With all the difficulties that entails the boost in participation, the incorporation of gender/equity and transdisciplinarity in health diagnosis allowed a holistic public health approach closer to the needs of the population.

  2. Monte Carlo approach to tissue-cell populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drasdo, D.; Kree, R.; McCaskill, J. S.

    1995-12-01

    We describe a stochastic dynamics of tissue cells with special emphasis on epithelial cells and fibro- blasts and fibrocytes of the connective tissue. Pattern formation and growth characteristics of such cell populations in culture are investigated numerically by Monte Carlo simulations for quasi-two-dimensional systems of cells. A number of quantitative predictions are obtained which may be confronted with experimental results. Furthermore we introduce several biologically motivated variants of our basic model and briefly discuss the simulation of two dimensional analogs of two complex processes in tissues: the growth of a sarcoma across an epithelial boundary and the wound healing of a skin cut. As compared to other approaches, we find the Monte Carlo approach to tissue growth and structure to be particularly simple and flexible. It allows for a hierarchy of models reaching from global description of birth-death processes to very specific features of intracellular dynamics. (c) 1995 The American Physical Society

  3. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  4. A general approach for population games with application to vaccination

    PubMed Central

    Galvani, Alison P.

    2011-01-01

    Reconciling the interests of individuals with the interests of communities is a major challenges in designing and implementing health policies. In this paper, we present a technique based on a combination of mechanistic population-scale models from Markov decision process theory and game theory that facilitates the evaluation of game theoretic decisions at both individual and community scales. We demonstrate how nonlinear population models can be combined with game theory to inform the management of infectious diseases. To illustrate our technique, we provide solutions to several variants of the simple vaccination game including imperfect vaccine efficacy and differential waning of natural and vaccine immunity. In addition, we show how path-integral approaches can be applied to the study of models in which strategies are fixed waiting times rather than exponential random variables. These methods can be applied to a wide variety of decision problems with population-dynamic feedbacks. PMID:21277314

  5. The population dynamics of antimicrobial chemotherapy.

    PubMed Central

    Lipsitch, M; Levin, B R

    1997-01-01

    We present and analyze a series of mathematical models for the emergence of resistance during antibiotic treatment of an infected host. The models consider the population dynamics of antibiotic-sensitive and -resistant bacteria during the course of treatment and addresses the following problems: (i) the probability of obtaining a resistant mutant during the course of treatment as a function of antibiotic exposure; (ii) the conditions under which high, infrequent doses of an antibiotic are predicted to succeed in preventing the emergence of resistance; (iii) the conditions for the success of multiple drug treatment in suppressing the emergence of resistance and the relationship between antibiotic synergism and suppression of resistance; and (iv) the conditions under which nonadherence to the prescribed treatment regimen is predicted to result in treatment failure due to resistance. We analyze the predictions of the model for interpreting and extrapolating existing experimental studies of treatment efficacy and for optimizing treatment protocols to prevent the emergence of resistance. PMID:9021193

  6. Reconstruction of cell population dynamics using CFSE

    PubMed Central

    Yates, Andrew; Chan, Cliburn; Strid, Jessica; Moon, Simon; Callard, Robin; George, Andrew JT; Stark, Jaroslav

    2007-01-01

    Background Quantifying cell division and death is central to many studies in the biological sciences. The fluorescent dye CFSE allows the tracking of cell division in vitro and in vivo and provides a rich source of information with which to test models of cell kinetics. Cell division and death have a stochastic component at the single-cell level, and the probabilities of these occurring in any given time interval may also undergo systematic variation at a population level. This gives rise to heterogeneity in proliferating cell populations. Branching processes provide a natural means of describing this behaviour. Results We present a likelihood-based method for estimating the parameters of branching process models of cell kinetics using CFSE-labeling experiments, and demonstrate its validity using synthetic and experimental datasets. Performing inference and model comparison with real CFSE data presents some statistical problems and we suggest methods of dealing with them. Conclusion The approach we describe here can be used to recover the (potentially variable) division and death rates of any cell population for which division tracking information is available. PMID:17565685

  7. Physical science: A dynamic approach

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, R.T.

    1986-01-01

    A partial table of contents is: Early concepts of nature. The rebirth of science. Energy, work, and power. Relativity. The atom. The periodic nature of elements. Chemical energy. The dynamic Earth. The solar system. Stars and nebulae. Extraterrestrial life. The author presents an introduction to physical science and the spirit of scientific inquiry through a historical survey of scientific thought. Specific forces, processes, energies and phenomena are outlined. Various tables, illustrations and questions accompany the text.

  8. Creative-Dynamics Approach To Neural Intelligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail A.

    1992-01-01

    Paper discusses approach to mathematical modeling of artificial neural networks exhibiting complicated behaviors reminiscent of creativity and intelligence of biological neural networks. Neural network treated as non-Lipschitzian dynamical system - as described in "Non-Lipschitzian Dynamics For Modeling Neural Networks" (NPO-17814). System serves as tool for modeling of temporal-pattern memories and recognition of complicated spatial patterns.

  9. Creative-Dynamics Approach To Neural Intelligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail A.

    1992-01-01

    Paper discusses approach to mathematical modeling of artificial neural networks exhibiting complicated behaviors reminiscent of creativity and intelligence of biological neural networks. Neural network treated as non-Lipschitzian dynamical system - as described in "Non-Lipschitzian Dynamics For Modeling Neural Networks" (NPO-17814). System serves as tool for modeling of temporal-pattern memories and recognition of complicated spatial patterns.

  10. [Approach to hypertension in the older population].

    PubMed

    Roca, Francisco Valls

    2014-05-01

    Hypertension is one of the most frequent causes for seeking primary care attention and its prevalence increases with age, affecting 68% of people older than 60 years. Data indicate that the prevalence of hypertense individuals older than 65 years has increased from 48% in 2002 to 58% in 2010. High blood pressure is related to 1 out of every 2 deaths from cardiovascular causes in the Spanish population ≥ 50 years and causes 13.5% of premature deaths worldwide, both in persons with hypertension and in those with high-normal blood pressure. Although few clinical trials have been performed in the older population, especially in the very old, there is evidence that diastolic and systolic blood pressure control reduces cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in older hypertense individuals. Consequently, the updates of the various clinical practice guidelines continue to include among their objectives-with some nuances-good blood pressure control in this population group. The present article reviews new evidence on the approach to hypertension in the elderly, which has modified some of the recommendations made in the clinical practice guidelines of several scientific societies.

  11. Biotic Population Dynamics: Creative Biotic Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabelli, Hector; Kovacevic, Lazar

    We present empirical studies and computer models of population dynamics that demonstrate creative features and we speculate that these creative processes may underline evolution. Changes in population size of lynx, muskrat, beaver, salmon, and fox display diversification, episodic changes in pattern, novelty, and evidence for nonrandom causation. These features of creativity characterize bios, and rule out random, periodic, chaotic, and random walk patterns. Biotic patterns are also demonstrated in time series generated with multi-agent predator-prey simulations. These results indicate that evolutionary processes are continually operating. In contrast to standard evolutionary theory (random variation, competition for scarce resources, selection by survival of the fittest, and directionless, meaningless evolution), we propose that biological evolution is a creative development from simple to complex in which (1) causal actions generate biological variation; (2) bipolar feedback (synergy and antagonism, abundance and scarcity) generates information (diversification, novelty and complexity); (3) connections (of molecules, genes, species) construct systems in which simple processes have priority for survival but complex processes acquire supremacy.

  12. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling.

    PubMed

    Karanth, K Ullas; Nichols, James D; Kumar, N Samba; Hines, James E

    2006-11-01

    that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

  13. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

  14. Approaches for modeling magnetic nanoparticle dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Reeves, Daniel B; Weaver, John B

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic nanoparticles are useful biological probes as well as therapeutic agents. There have been several approaches used to model nanoparticle magnetization dynamics for both Brownian as well as Néel rotation. The magnetizations are often of interest and can be compared with experimental results. Here we summarize these approaches including the Stoner-Wohlfarth approach, and stochastic approaches including thermal fluctuations. Non-equilibrium related temperature effects can be described by a distribution function approach (Fokker-Planck equation) or a stochastic differential equation (Langevin equation). Approximate models in several regimes can be derived from these general approaches to simplify implementation. PMID:25271360

  15. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  16. Dynamic energy budget theory and population ecology: lessons from Daphnia

    PubMed Central

    Nisbet, Roger M.; McCauley, Edward; Johnson, Leah R.

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory offers a perspective on population ecology whose starting point is energy utilization by, and homeostasis within, individual organisms. It is natural to ask what it adds to the existing large body of individual-based ecological theory. We approach this question pragmatically—through detailed study of the individual physiology and population dynamics of the zooplankter Daphnia and its algal food. Standard DEB theory uses several state variables to characterize the state of an individual organism, thereby making the transition to population dynamics technically challenging, while ecologists demand maximally simple models that can be used in multi-scale modelling. We demonstrate that simpler representations of individual bioenergetics with a single state variable (size), and two life stages (juveniles and adults), contain sufficient detail on mass and energy budgets to yield good fits to data on growth, maturation and reproduction of individual Daphnia in response to food availability. The same simple representations of bioenergetics describe some features of Daphnia mortality, including enhanced mortality at low food that is not explicitly incorporated in the standard DEB model. Size-structured, population models incorporating this additional mortality component resolve some long-standing questions on stability and population cycles in Daphnia. We conclude that a bioenergetic model serving solely as a ‘regression’ connecting organismal performance to the history of its environment can rest on simpler representations than those of standard DEB. But there are associated costs with such pragmatism, notably loss of connection to theory describing interspecific variation in physiological rates. The latter is an important issue, as the type of detailed study reported here can only be performed for a handful of species. PMID:20921052

  17. An Ecological Approach to Learning Dynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Normak, Peeter; Pata, Kai; Kaipainen, Mauri

    2012-01-01

    New approaches to emergent learner-directed learning design can be strengthened with a theoretical framework that considers learning as a dynamic process. We propose an approach that models a learning process using a set of spatial concepts: learning space, position of a learner, niche, perspective, step, path, direction of a step and step…

  18. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  19. Managing weeds with a population dynamics approach

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    No-till cropping systems are increasing land productivity. A critical aspect of no-till is controlling weeds. Herbicides are a crucial tool for weed management, but weed resistance is decreasing control efficacy and increasing input costs. Scientists and producers are seeking a broader perspectiv...

  20. Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

    PubMed

    Darling, Aaron E; Miklós, István; Ragan, Mark A

    2008-07-18

    characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes.

  1. Dynamics of two phytoplankton populations under predation.

    PubMed

    Kengwoung-Keumo, Jean-Jacques

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the manner in which predation and single-nutrient competition affect the dynamics of a non-toxic and a toxic phytoplankton species in a homogeneous environment (such as a chemostat). We allow for the possibility that both species serve as prey for an herbivorous zooplankton species. We assume that the toxic phytoplankton species produces toxins that affect only its own growth (autotoxicity). The autotoxicity assumption is ecologically explained by the fact that the toxin-producing phytoplankton is not mature enough to produce toxins that will affect the growth of its nontoxic competitor. We show that, in the absence of phytotoxic interactions and nutrient recycling, our model exhibits uniform persistence. The removal rates are distinct and we use general response functions. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to show consistency with theoretical analysis. Our model has similarities with other food-chain models. As such, our results may be relevant to a wider spectrum of population models, not just those focused on plankton. Some open problems are discussed at the end of this paper.

  2. Neural Population Dynamics Modeled by Mean-Field Graphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozma, Robert; Puljic, Marko

    2011-09-01

    In this work we apply random graph theory approach to describe neural population dynamics. There are important advantages of using random graph theory approach in addition to ordinary and partial differential equations. The mathematical theory of large-scale random graphs provides an efficient tool to describe transitions between high- and low-dimensional spaces. Recent advances in studying neural correlates of higher cognition indicate the significance of sudden changes in space-time neurodynamics, which can be efficiently described as phase transitions in the neuropil medium. Phase transitions are rigorously defined mathematically on random graph sequences and they can be naturally generalized to a class of percolation processes called neuropercolation. In this work we employ mean-field graphs with given vertex degree distribution and edge strength distribution. We demonstrate the emergence of collective oscillations in the style of brains.

  3. Compressive Information Extraction: A Dynamical Systems Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-01-24

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0097 Compressive Information Extraction A Dynamical Systems Approach Mario Sznaier NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY Final Report 02/09...Final Performance 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 01-06-2012 to 31-05-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Compressive Information Extraction A Dynamical Systems ... information extraction, hybrid system identification 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a.  NAME OF

  4. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families.

    PubMed

    Mason, Andrew W; Lee, Ronald D; Lee, Sang-Hyop

    2010-07-01

    Upward intergenerational flows - from the working ages to old age - are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages - the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are

  5. Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data.

    PubMed

    Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R

    2016-02-01

    Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes.

  6. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    PubMed

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  7. Dynamical Systems in Psychology: Linguistic Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sulis, William

    Major goals for psychoanalysis and psychology are the description, analysis, prediction, and control of behaviour. Natural language has long provided the medium for the formulation of our theoretical understanding of behavior. But with the advent of nonlinear dynamics, a new language has appeared which offers promise to provide a quantitative theory of behaviour. In this paper, some of the limitations of natural and formal languages are discussed. Several approaches to understanding the links between natural and formal languages, as applied to the study of behavior, are discussed. These include symbolic dynamics, Moore's generalized shifts, Crutchfield's ɛ machines, and dynamical automata.

  8. Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing.

    PubMed

    Pardikes, Nicholas A; Harrison, Joshua G; Shapiro, Arthur M; Forister, Matthew L

    2017-07-01

    A long-standing challenge for population biology has been to understand why some species are characterized by populations that fluctuate in size independently, while populations of other species fluctuate synchronously across space. The effects of climatic variation and dispersal have been invoked to explain synchronous population dynamics, however an understanding of the relative influence of these drivers in natural populations is lacking. Here we compare support for dispersal- versus climate-driven models of interspecific variation in synchrony using 27 years of observations of 65 butterfly species at 10 sites spanning 2750 m of elevation in Northern California. The degree of spatial synchrony exhibited by each butterfly species was used as a response in a unique approach that allowed us to investigate whether interspecific variation in response to climate or dispersal propensity was most predictive of interspecific variation in synchrony. We report that variation in sensitivity to climate explained 50% of interspecific variation in synchrony, whereas variation in dispersal propensity explained 23%. Sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a primary driver of regional climate, was the best predictor of synchrony. Combining sensitivity to climate and dispersal propensity into a single model did not greatly increase model performance, confirming the primacy of climatic sensitivity for driving spatial synchrony in butterflies. Finally, we uncovered a relationship between spatial synchrony and population decline that is consistent with theory, but small in magnitude, which suggests that the degree to which populations fluctuate in synchrony is of limited use for understanding the ongoing decline of the Northern California butterfly fauna.

  9. Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

    PubMed

    Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

    2016-08-01

    Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches

  10. Molecular approaches to diversity of populations of apicomplexan parasites.

    PubMed

    Beck, Hans-Peter; Blake, Damer; Dardé, Marie-Laure; Felger, Ingrid; Pedraza-Díaz, Susana; Regidor-Cerrillo, Javier; Gómez-Bautista, Mercedes; Ortega-Mora, Luis Miguel; Putignani, Lorenza; Shiels, Brian; Tait, Andrew; Weir, Willie

    2009-01-01

    Apicomplexan parasites include many parasites of importance either for livestock or as causative agents of human diseases. The importance of these parasites has been recognised by the European Commission and resulted in support of the COST (Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action 857 'Apicomplexan Biology in the Post-Genomic Era'. In this review we discuss the current understanding in 'Biodiversity and Population Genetics' of the major apicomplexan parasites, namely the Eimeria spp., Cryptosporidium spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Neospora caninum, Theileria spp. and Plasmodium spp. During the past decade molecular tools for characterizing and monitoring parasite populations have been firmly established as an integral part of field studies and intervention trials. Analyses have been conducted for most apicomplexan pathogens to describe the extent of genetic diversity, infection dynamics or population structure. The underlying key question for all parasites is to understand how genetic diversity influences epidemiology and pathogenicity and its implication in therapeutic and vaccination strategies as well as disease control. Similarities in the basic biology and disease or transmission patterns among this order of parasites promote multifaceted discussions and comparison of epidemiological approaches and methodological tools. This fosters mutual learning and has the potential for cross-fertilisation of ideas and technical approaches.

  11. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Reproductive success is predicted by social dynamics and kinship in managed animal populations

    PubMed Central

    Newman, Saul J.; Eyre, Simon; Kimble, Catherine H.; Arcos-Burgos, Mauricio; Hogg, Carolyn; Easteal, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Kin and group interactions are important determinants of reproductive success in many species. Their optimization could, therefore, potentially improve the productivity and breeding success of managed populations used for agricultural and conservation purposes. Here we demonstrate this potential using a novel approach to measure and predict the effect of kin and group dynamics on reproductive output in a well-known species, the meerkat Suricata suricatta. Variation in social dynamics predicts 30% of the individual variation in reproductive success of this species in managed populations, and accurately forecasts reproductive output at least two years into the future. Optimization of social dynamics in captive meerkat populations doubles their projected reproductive output. These results demonstrate the utility of a quantitative approach to breeding programs informed by social and kinship dynamics. They suggest that this approach has great potential for improvements in the management of social endangered and agricultural species. PMID:27990255

  13. Reproductive success is predicted by social dynamics and kinship in managed animal populations.

    PubMed

    Newman, Saul J; Eyre, Simon; Kimble, Catherine H; Arcos-Burgos, Mauricio; Hogg, Carolyn; Easteal, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Kin and group interactions are important determinants of reproductive success in many species. Their optimization could, therefore, potentially improve the productivity and breeding success of managed populations used for agricultural and conservation purposes. Here we demonstrate this potential using a novel approach to measure and predict the effect of kin and group dynamics on reproductive output in a well-known species, the meerkat Suricata suricatta. Variation in social dynamics predicts 30% of the individual variation in reproductive success of this species in managed populations, and accurately forecasts reproductive output at least two years into the future. Optimization of social dynamics in captive meerkat populations doubles their projected reproductive output. These results demonstrate the utility of a quantitative approach to breeding programs informed by social and kinship dynamics. They suggest that this approach has great potential for improvements in the management of social endangered and agricultural species.

  14. Consequences of parental care on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira, S. Moss

    1999-12-01

    We review the results obtained using the Penna model for biological ageing (T.J.P. Penna, J. Stat. Phys. 78 (1995) 1629) when different strategies of parental care are introduced into evolving populations. These results concern to: longevity of semelparous populations; self-organization of female menopause; the spatial distribution of the populations and finally, sexual fidelity.

  15. Microbial population dynamics by digital in-line holographic microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Hekstra, Doeke; Leibler, Stanislas

    2010-08-01

    Measurements of population dynamics are ubiquitous in experiments with microorganisms. Studies with microbes elucidating adaptation, selection, and competition rely on measurements of changing populations in time. Despite this importance, quantitative methods for measuring population dynamics microscopically, with high time resolution, across many replicates remain limited. Here we present a new noninvasive method to precisely measure microbial spatiotemporal population dynamics based on digital in-line holographic (DIH) microscopy. Our inexpensive, replicate DIH microscopes imaged hundreds of swimming algae in three dimensions within a volume of several microliters on a time scale of minutes over periods of weeks.

  16. Microbial population dynamics by digital in-line holographic microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Hekstra, Doeke; Leibler, Stanislas

    2010-01-01

    Measurements of population dynamics are ubiquitous in experiments with microorganisms. Studies with microbes elucidating adaptation, selection, and competition rely on measurements of changing populations in time. Despite this importance, quantitative methods for measuring population dynamics microscopically, with high time resolution, across many replicates remain limited. Here we present a new noninvasive method to precisely measure microbial spatiotemporal population dynamics based on digital in-line holographic (DIH) microscopy. Our inexpensive, replicate DIH microscopes imaged hundreds of swimming algae in three dimensions within a volume of several microliters on a time scale of minutes over periods of weeks. PMID:20815617

  17. Long-term effective population size dynamics of an intensively monitored vertebrate population

    PubMed Central

    Mueller, A-K; Chakarov, N; Krüger, O; Hoffman, J I

    2016-01-01

    Long-term genetic data from intensively monitored natural populations are important for understanding how effective population sizes (Ne) can vary over time. We therefore genotyped 1622 common buzzard (Buteo buteo) chicks sampled over 12 consecutive years (2002–2013 inclusive) at 15 microsatellite loci. This data set allowed us to both compare single-sample with temporal approaches and explore temporal patterns in the effective number of parents that produced each cohort in relation to the observed population dynamics. We found reasonable consistency between linkage disequilibrium-based single-sample and temporal estimators, particularly during the latter half of the study, but no clear relationship between annual Ne estimates () and census sizes. We also documented a 14-fold increase in between 2008 and 2011, a period during which the census size doubled, probably reflecting a combination of higher adult survival and immigration from further afield. Our study thus reveals appreciable temporal heterogeneity in the effective population size of a natural vertebrate population, confirms the need for long-term studies and cautions against drawing conclusions from a single sample. PMID:27553455

  18. Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

    2017-07-01

    have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

  19. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ronald D.; Lee, Sang-Hyop

    2015-01-01

    Upward intergenerational flows – from the working ages to old age – are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages – the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are

  20. Physical approaches to the dynamics of genetic circuits: a tutorial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia-Ojalvo, Jordi

    2011-09-01

    Cellular behaviour is governed by gene regulatory processes that are intrinsically dynamic and nonlinear, and are subject to non-negligible amounts of random fluctuations. Such conditions are ubiquitous in physical systems, where they have been studied for decades using the tools of statistical and nonlinear physics. The goal of this introductory tutorial is to show how approaches traditionally used in physics can help in reaching a systems-level understanding of living cells. To that end, we present an overview of the dynamical phenomena exhibited by genetic circuits and their functional significance. We also describe the theoretical and experimental approaches that are being used to unravel the relationship between circuit structure and function in dynamical cellular processes under the influence ofnoise. Studies are discussed both at the single-cell level and in cellular populations, where intercellular coupling plays an important role.

  1. Introducing Dynamic Analysis Using Malthus's Principle of Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pingle, Mark

    2003-01-01

    Declares the use of dynamic models is increasing in macroeconomics. Explains how to introduce dynamic models to students whose technical skills are modest or varied. Chooses Malthus's Principle of Population as a natural context for introducing dynamic analysis because it provides a method for reviewing the mathematical tools and theoretical…

  2. Dynamical Systems Approaches to Emotional Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Camras, Linda A.; Witherington, David C.

    2005-01-01

    Within the last 20 years, transitions in the conceptualization of emotion and its development have given rise to calls for an explanatory framework that captures emotional development in all its organizational complexity and variability. Recent attempts have been made to couch emotional development in terms of a dynamical systems approach through…

  3. Overstress and flowstress approaches to dynamic viscoplasticity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partom, Yehuda

    2015-09-01

    Viscoplasticity is mostly modelled by the flowstress approach, where the flowstress (Y) is a function of pressure, temperature, plastic strain and strain rate Y(P,T, ɛp, ɛ˙). For dynamic Viscoplasticity the flowstress approach is used in hydrocodes together with the radial return algorithm, to determine deviatoric stress components in each computational cell and for each time step. The flowstress approach assumes that during plastic loading, the flowstress in stress space follows the current stress point (current Y). Unloading of a computational cell is therefore always elastic. The overstress approach to dynamic viscoplasticity was used in various versions in the 1950s and early 1960s, before the advent of hydrocodes. By the overstress approach a state point may move out of the quasistatic flow surface upon loading, and hence the term overstress. When this happens, the state point tends to fall back (or relax) onto the quasistatic flow surface through plastic flow, and the rate of this relaxation is an increasing function of the amount of overstress. In the paper we first outline in detail how these two approaches to dynamic viscoplasticity work, and then show an example for which the overstress approach has an advantage over the flowstress approach. The example has to do with elastic precursor decay in planar impact, and with the phenomenon of anomalous thermal strengthening, revealed recently in planar impact tests. The overstress approach has an advantage whenever plastic flow during unloading is of importance.

  4. Mean occupancy time: linking mechanistic movement models, population dynamics and landscape ecology to population persistence.

    PubMed

    Cobbold, Christina A; Lutscher, Frithjof

    2014-02-01

    Reaction-diffusion models for the dynamics of a biological population in a fragmented landscape can incorporate detailed descriptions of movement and behavior, but are difficult to analyze and hard to parameterize. Patch models, on the other hand, are fairly easy to analyze and can be parameterized reasonably well, but miss many details of the movement process within and between patches. We develop a framework to scale up from a reaction-diffusion process to a patch model and, in particular, to determine movement rates between patches based on behavioral rules for individuals. Our approach is based on the mean occupancy time, the mean time that an individuals spends in a certain area of the landscape before it exits that area or dies. We illustrate our approach using several different landscape configurations. We demonstrate that the resulting patch model most closely captures persistence conditions and steady state densities as compared with the reaction-diffusion model.

  5. Leisure Today: Population Dynamics--The Changing Face of America.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dunn, Diana R., Ed.; And Others

    1981-01-01

    A collection of articles examines the changing character of the American population and the importance of planning new recreation and leisure services to meet changing population needs. Included are discussions on demography and population dynamics; the effects of immigration; changing work and life styles; and changes in family structure and…

  6. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  7. An Adaptive Multipopulation Differential Evolution With Dynamic Population Reduction.

    PubMed

    Ali, Mostafa Z; Awad, Noor H; Suganthan, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam; Reynolds, Robert G

    2016-10-25

    Developing efficient evolutionary algorithms attracts many researchers due to the existence of optimization problems in numerous real-world applications. A new differential evolution algorithm, sTDE-dR, is proposed to improve the search quality, avoid premature convergence, and stagnation. The population is clustered in multiple tribes and utilizes an ensemble of different mutation and crossover strategies. In this algorithm, a competitive success-based scheme is introduced to determine the life cycle of each tribe and its participation ratio for the next generation. In each tribe, a different adaptive scheme is used to control the scaling factor and crossover rate. The mean success of each subgroup is used to calculate the ratio of its participation for the next generation. This guarantees that successful tribes with the best adaptive schemes are only the ones that guide the search toward the optimal solution. The population size is dynamically reduced using a dynamic reduction method. Comprehensive comparison of the proposed heuristic over a challenging set of benchmarks from the CEC2014 real parameter single objective competition against several state-of-the-art algorithms is performed. The results affirm robustness of the proposed approach compared to other state-of-the-art algorithms.

  8. Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears

    SciTech Connect

    Knight, R.R.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-04-01

    Data on the population of grizzly bears in the environs of Yellowstone National Park suggest that the population has not recovered from the reductions following closure of garbage dumps in 1970 and 1971, and may continue to decline. A computer simulation model indicates that the risk of extirpation over the next 30 yr is small, if the present population parameters continue to prevail. A review an further analysis of the available data brings out the importance of enhancing adult female survival if the population is to recover, and assesses various research needs. In particular, a reliable index of population trend is needed to augment available data on the population. 12 references, 9 figures, 6 tables.

  9. Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

    Treesearch

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

    2017-01-01

    The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation...

  10. Population dynamics of patella vulgata in orkney

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baxter, J. M.

    A population of Patella vulgata has been studied at Dyke-end, in Orkney. The population had a polymodal distribution, within which several year-classes were identified. Spawning occured between January and April each year and the first signs of spat settlement were recorded between August and October. Growth was suppressed over the winter months and increased during the summer, although the mature proportion of the population showed a reduction in growth rate at the onset of gonad development. Annual fluctuations in population density were attributed to spat recruitment and subsequent mortality of animals of < 30 mm lenght; little mortality of lager animals occurred.

  11. When stable-stage equilibrium is unlikely: integrating transient population dynamics improves asymptotic methods

    PubMed Central

    Tremblay, Raymond L.; Raventos, Josep; Ackerman, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Evaluation of population projection matrices (PPMs) that are focused on asymptotically based properties of populations is a commonly used approach to evaluate projected dynamics of managed populations. Recently, a set of tools for evaluating the properties of transient dynamics has been expanded to evaluate PPMs and to consider the dynamics of populations prior to attaining the stable-stage distribution, a state that may never be achieved in disturbed or otherwise ephemeral habitats or persistently small populations. This study re-evaluates data for a tropical orchid and examines the value of including such analyses in an integrative approach. Methods Six small populations of Lepanthes rubripetala were used as a model system and the R software package popdemo was used to produce estimates of the indices for the asymptotic growth rate (lambda), sensitivities, reactivity, first-time step attenuation, maximum amplification, maximum attenuation, maximal inertia and maximal attenuation. The response in lambda to perturbations of demographic parameters using transfer functions and multiple perturbations on growth, stasis and fecundity were also determined. The results were compared with previously published asymptotic indices. Key Results It was found that combining asymptotic and transient dynamics expands the understanding of possible population changes. Comparison of the predicted density from reactivity and first-time step attenuation with the observed change in population size in two orchid populations showed that the observed density was within the predicted range. However, transfer function analysis suggests that the traditional approach of measuring perturbation of growth rates and persistence (inertia) may be misleading and is likely to result in erroneous management decisions. Conclusions Based on the results, an integrative approach is recommended using traditional PPMs (asymptotic processes) with an evaluation of the diversity of dynamics

  12. Bifurcation theory, adaptive dynamics and dynamic energy budget-structured populations of iteroparous species

    PubMed Central

    Kooi, B. W.; van der Meer, J.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we describe a technique to evaluate the evolutionary dynamics of the timing of spawning for iteroparous species. The life cycle of the species consists of three life stages, embryonic, juvenile and adult whereby the transitions of life stages (gametogenesis, birth and maturation) occur at species-specific sizes. The dynamics of the population is studied in a semi-chemostat environment where the inflowing food concentration is periodic (annual). A dynamic energy budget-based continuous-time model is used to describe the uptake of the food, storage in reserves and allocation of the energy to growth, maintenance, development (embryos, juveniles) and reproduction (adults). A discrete-event process is used for modelling reproduction. At a fixed spawning date of the year, the reproduction buffer is emptied and a new cohort is formed by eggs with a fixed size and energy content. The population consists of cohorts: for each year one consisting of individuals with the same age which die after their last reproduction event. The resulting mathematical model is a finite-dimensional set of ordinary differential equations with fixed 1-year periodic boundary conditions yielding a stroboscopic map. We will study the evolutionary development of the population using the adaptive dynamics approach. The trait is the timing of spawning. Pairwise and mutual invasibility plots are calculated using bifurcation analysis of the stroboscopic map. The evolutionary singular strategy value belonging to the evolutionary endpoint for the trait allows for an interpretation of the reproduction strategy of the population. In a case study, parameter values from the literature for the bivalve Macoma balthica are used. PMID:20921055

  13. Delay driven spatiotemporal chaos in single species population dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Jankovic, Masha; Petrovskii, Sergei; Banerjee, Malay

    2016-08-01

    Questions surrounding the prevalence of complex population dynamics form one of the central themes in ecology. Limit cycles and spatiotemporal chaos are examples that have been widely recognised theoretically, although their importance and applicability to natural populations remains debatable. The ecological processes underlying such dynamics are thought to be numerous, though there seems to be consent as to delayed density dependence being one of the main driving forces. Indeed, time delay is a common feature of many ecological systems and can significantly influence population dynamics. In general, time delays may arise from inter- and intra-specific trophic interactions or population structure, however in the context of single species populations they are linked to more intrinsic biological phenomena such as gestation or resource regeneration. In this paper, we consider theoretically the spatiotemporal dynamics of a single species population using two different mathematical formulations. Firstly, we revisit the diffusive logistic equation in which the per capita growth is a function of some specified delayed argument. We then modify the model by incorporating a spatial convolution which results in a biologically more viable integro-differential model. Using the combination of analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate the effect of time delay on pattern formation. In particular, we show that for sufficiently large values of time delay the system's dynamics are indicative to spatiotemporal chaos. The chaotic dynamics arising in the wake of a travelling population front can be preceded by either a plateau corresponding to dynamical stabilisation of the unstable equilibrium or by periodic oscillations.

  14. Role of finite populations in determining evolutionary dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, Tane S.; Payne, Karl A.; Moseley, L. Leo

    2008-02-01

    The connection between the finite size of an evolving population and its dynamical behavior is examined through analytical and computational studies of a simple model of evolution. The infinite population limit of the model is shown to be governed by a special case of the quasispecies equations. A flat fitness landscape yields identical results for the dynamics of infinite and finite populations. On the other hand, a monotonically increasing fitness landscape shows “epochs” in the dynamics of finite populations that become more pronounced as the rate of mutation decreases. The details of the dynamics are profoundly different for any two simulation runs in that events arising from the stochastic noise in the pseudorandom number sequence are amplified. As the population size is increased or, equivalently, the mutation rate is increased, these epochs become smaller but do not entirely disappear.

  15. Dynamical maximum entropy approach to flocking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavagna, Andrea; Giardina, Irene; Ginelli, Francesco; Mora, Thierry; Piovani, Duccio; Tavarone, Raffaele; Walczak, Aleksandra M.

    2014-04-01

    We derive a new method to infer from data the out-of-equilibrium alignment dynamics of collectively moving animal groups, by considering the maximum entropy model distribution consistent with temporal and spatial correlations of flight direction. When bird neighborhoods evolve rapidly, this dynamical inference correctly learns the parameters of the model, while a static one relying only on the spatial correlations fails. When neighbors change slowly and the detailed balance is satisfied, we recover the static procedure. We demonstrate the validity of the method on simulated data. The approach is applicable to other systems of active matter.

  16. Artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic multi-population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ming; Ji, Zhicheng; Wang, Yan

    2017-07-01

    To improve the convergence rate and make a balance between the global search and local turning abilities, this paper proposes a decentralized form of artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm with dynamic multi-populations by means of fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering. Each subpopulation periodically enlarges with the same size during the search process, and the overlapping individuals among different subareas work for delivering information acting as exploring the search space with diffusion of solutions. Moreover, a Gaussian-based search equation with redefined local attractor is proposed to further accelerate the diffusion of the best solution and guide the search towards potential areas. Experimental results on a set of benchmarks demonstrate the competitive performance of our proposed approach.

  17. "Population dynamics of crustaceans": introduction to the symposium.

    PubMed

    Buhay, Jennifer E

    2011-10-01

    Crustaceans are a globally-distributed faunal group, found across all habitats from the equator to the poles. They are an ideal focal assemblage for assessment of the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic disturbance on nonmodel systems, such as how sea currents influence the movements of zooplankton communities in the open ocean, or how ecosystem processes affect phytoplanktonic species with restricted geographic distributions across a cluster of island lakes that could be a new model system for studies of speciation. This symposium introduced early-career researchers working in the fields of phylogeography, ecogenomics, fisheries management, and ecosystem processes with the aim of highlighting the different genetic and ecological approaches to the study of population dynamics of freshwater, estuarine, and marine crustacean species.

  18. Dynamical criticality in the collective activity of a neural population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mora, Thierry

    The past decade has seen a wealth of physiological data suggesting that neural networks may behave like critical branching processes. Concurrently, the collective activity of neurons has been studied using explicit mappings to classic statistical mechanics models such as disordered Ising models, allowing for the study of their thermodynamics, but these efforts have ignored the dynamical nature of neural activity. I will show how to reconcile these two approaches by learning effective statistical mechanics models of the full history of the collective activity of a neuron population directly from physiological data, treating time as an additional dimension. Applying this technique to multi-electrode recordings from retinal ganglion cells, and studying the thermodynamics of the inferred model, reveals a peak in specific heat reminiscent of a second-order phase transition.

  19. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  20. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    SciTech Connect

    Gavane, Ajinkya S. Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-02

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  1. A simplified model of spatiotemporal population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Puu, T

    1985-09-01

    This paper is an extension of the model of population growth and migration originally developed by H. Hotelling in 1921. This model consists of two ingredients, a logistic growth function and a linear spatial diffusion term. The author notes that the saturation population can be affected by the development of new technology and that improvements in transportation have increased the possibilities for migration. "Basic nonlinearities are introduced by use of a production technology with increasing-decreasing returns to scale. It is demonstrated how industrial takeoffs, population transitions, and agglomerative spatial patterns can emerge by changing the model parameters." excerpt

  2. Building dynamic population graph for accurate correspondence detection.

    PubMed

    Du, Shaoyi; Guo, Yanrong; Sanroma, Gerard; Ni, Dong; Wu, Guorong; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-12-01

    In medical imaging studies, there is an increasing trend for discovering the intrinsic anatomical difference across individual subjects in a dataset, such as hand images for skeletal bone age estimation. Pair-wise matching is often used to detect correspondences between each individual subject and a pre-selected model image with manually-placed landmarks. However, the large anatomical variability across individual subjects can easily compromise such pair-wise matching step. In this paper, we present a new framework to simultaneously detect correspondences among a population of individual subjects, by propagating all manually-placed landmarks from a small set of model images through a dynamically constructed image graph. Specifically, we first establish graph links between models and individual subjects according to pair-wise shape similarity (called as forward step). Next, we detect correspondences for the individual subjects with direct links to any of model images, which is achieved by a new multi-model correspondence detection approach based on our recently-published sparse point matching method. To correct those inaccurate correspondences, we further apply an error detection mechanism to automatically detect wrong correspondences and then update the image graph accordingly (called as backward step). After that, all subject images with detected correspondences are included into the set of model images, and the above two steps of graph expansion and error correction are repeated until accurate correspondences for all subject images are established. Evaluations on real hand X-ray images demonstrate that our proposed method using a dynamic graph construction approach can achieve much higher accuracy and robustness, when compared with the state-of-the-art pair-wise correspondence detection methods as well as a similar method but using static population graph.

  3. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  4. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth.

    PubMed

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  5. Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1978-01-01

    The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

  6. Infections of Wolbachia may destabilize mosquito population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Telschow, Arndt; Grziwotz, Florian; Crain, Philip; Miki, Takeshi; Mains, James W; Sugihara, George; Dobson, Stephen L; Hsieh, Chih-Hao

    2017-09-07

    Recent efforts in controlling mosquito-borne diseases focus on biocontrol strategies that incapacitate pathogens inside mosquitoes by altering the mosquito's microbiome. A case in point is the introduction of Wolbachia into natural mosquito populations in order to eliminate Dengue virus. However, whether this strategy can successfully control vector-borne diseases is debated; particularly, how artificial infection affects population dynamics of hosts remains unclear. Here, we show that natural Wolbachia infections are associated with unstable mosquito population dynamics by contrasting Wolbachia-infected versus uninfected cage populations of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). By analyzing weekly data of adult mosquito abundances, we found that the variability of the infected populations is significantly higher than that of the uninfected. The elevated population variability is explained by increased instability in dynamics, as quantified by system nonlinearity (i.e., state-dependence). In addition, predictability of infected populations is substantially lower. A mathematical model analysis suggests that Wolbachia may alter mosquito population dynamics by modifying larval competition of hosts. These results encourage examination for effects of artificial Wolbachia establishment on mosquito populations, because an enhancement of population variability with reduced predictability could pose challenges in management. Our findings have implications for application of microbiome alterations in biocontrol programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The Modern Temperature-Accelerated Dynamics Approach.

    PubMed

    Zamora, Richard J; Uberuaga, Blas P; Perez, Danny; Voter, Arthur F

    2016-06-07

    Accelerated molecular dynamics (AMD) is a class of MD-based methods used to simulate atomistic systems in which the metastable state-to-state evolution is slow compared with thermal vibrations. Temperature-accelerated dynamics (TAD) is a particularly efficient AMD procedure in which the predicted evolution is hastened by elevating the temperature of the system and then recovering the correct state-to-state dynamics at the temperature of interest. TAD has been used to study various materials applications, often revealing surprising behavior beyond the reach of direct MD. This success has inspired several algorithmic performance enhancements, as well as the analysis of its mathematical framework. Recently, these enhancements have leveraged parallel programming techniques to enhance both the spatial and temporal scaling of the traditional approach. We review the ongoing evolution of the modern TAD method and introduce the latest development: speculatively parallel TAD.

  8. The modern temperature-accelerated dynamics approach

    DOE PAGES

    Zamora, Richard J.; Uberuaga, Blas P.; Perez, Danny; ...

    2016-06-01

    Accelerated molecular dynamics (AMD) is a class of MD-based methods used to simulate atomistic systems in which the metastable state-to-state evolution is slow compared with thermal vibrations. Temperature-accelerated dynamics (TAD) is a particularly efficient AMD procedure in which the predicted evolution is hastened by elevating the temperature of the system and then recovering the correct state-to-state dynamics at the temperature of interest. TAD has been used to study various materials applications, often revealing surprising behavior beyond the reach of direct MD. This success has inspired several algorithmic performance enhancements, as well as the analysis of its mathematical framework. Recently, thesemore » enhancements have leveraged parallel programming techniques to enhance both the spatial and temporal scaling of the traditional approach. Here, we review the ongoing evolution of the modern TAD method and introduce the latest development: speculatively parallel TAD.« less

  9. The modern temperature-accelerated dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect

    Zamora, Richard J.; Uberuaga, Blas P.; Perez, Danny; Voter, Arthur F.

    2016-06-01

    Accelerated molecular dynamics (AMD) is a class of MD-based methods used to simulate atomistic systems in which the metastable state-to-state evolution is slow compared with thermal vibrations. Temperature-accelerated dynamics (TAD) is a particularly efficient AMD procedure in which the predicted evolution is hastened by elevating the temperature of the system and then recovering the correct state-to-state dynamics at the temperature of interest. TAD has been used to study various materials applications, often revealing surprising behavior beyond the reach of direct MD. This success has inspired several algorithmic performance enhancements, as well as the analysis of its mathematical framework. Recently, these enhancements have leveraged parallel programming techniques to enhance both the spatial and temporal scaling of the traditional approach. Here, we review the ongoing evolution of the modern TAD method and introduce the latest development: speculatively parallel TAD.

  10. The modern temperature-accelerated dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect

    Zamora, Richard J.; Uberuaga, Blas P.; Perez, Danny; Voter, Arthur F.

    2016-06-01

    Accelerated molecular dynamics (AMD) is a class of MD-based methods used to simulate atomistic systems in which the metastable state-to-state evolution is slow compared with thermal vibrations. Temperature-accelerated dynamics (TAD) is a particularly efficient AMD procedure in which the predicted evolution is hastened by elevating the temperature of the system and then recovering the correct state-to-state dynamics at the temperature of interest. TAD has been used to study various materials applications, often revealing surprising behavior beyond the reach of direct MD. This success has inspired several algorithmic performance enhancements, as well as the analysis of its mathematical framework. Recently, these enhancements have leveraged parallel programming techniques to enhance both the spatial and temporal scaling of the traditional approach. Here, we review the ongoing evolution of the modern TAD method and introduce the latest development: speculatively parallel TAD.

  11. Smart dynamic system design: an integrated approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carpenter, Mike J.; Skelton, Robert T.

    1994-05-01

    A dynamic system with satisfactory performance generally consists of a mechanical system (the plant) and a controller that drives the mechanical system to meet certain performance requirements. Traditionally the control engineer designs the controller only after the plant design is completed. This two-step approach to plant and controller design does not provide the best system design because the dynamics of the plant and the dynamics of the controller often oppose each other. This paper presents an application of the iterative system equivalent optimal mix algorithm to perform a smart design of a nine-member truss substructure and its accompanying controller. The objective of the design algorithm is to reduce the amount of energy used by the controller to maintain control performance, subject to the structure design constraints. Two unique features of the algorithm are that each iteration of the design problem is stated as a convex quadratic programming problem, and the control effort monotonically converges to its final value.

  12. An analytic approach to cyber adversarial dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweeney, Patrick; Cybenko, George

    2012-06-01

    To date, cyber security investment by both the government and commercial sectors has been largely driven by the myopic best response of players to the actions of their adversaries and their perception of the adversarial environment. However, current work in applying traditional game theory to cyber operations typically assumes that games exist with prescribed moves, strategies, and payos. This paper presents an analytic approach to characterizing the more realistic cyber adversarial metagame that we believe is being played. Examples show that understanding the dynamic metagame provides opportunities to exploit an adversary's anticipated attack strategy. A dynamic version of a graph-based attack-defend game is introduced, and a simulation shows how an optimal strategy can be selected for success in the dynamic environment.

  13. Creative dynamics approach to neural intelligence.

    PubMed

    Zak, M

    1990-01-01

    The thrust of this paper is to introduce and discuss a substantially new type of dynamical system for modelling biological behavior. The approach was motivated by an attempt to remove one of the most fundamental limitations of artificial neural networks-their rigid behavior compared with even simplest biological systems. This approach exploits a novel paradigm in nonlinear dynamics based upon the concept of terminal attractors and repellers. It was demonstrated that non-Lipschitzian dynamics based upon the failure of Lipschitz condition exhibits a new qualitative effect--a multi-choice response to periodic external excitations. Based upon this property, a substantially new class of dynamical systems--the unpredictable systems--was introduced and analyzed. These systems are represented in the form of coupled activation and learning dynamical equations whose ability to be spontaneously activated is based upon two pathological characteristics. Firstly, such systems have zero Jacobian. As a result of that, they have an infinite number of equilibrium points which occupy curves, surfaces or hypersurfaces. Secondly, at all these equilibrium points, the Lipschitz conditions fails, so the equilibrium points become terminal attractors or repellers depending upon the sign of the periodic excitation. Both of these pathological characteristics result in multi-choice response of unpredictable dynamical systems. It has been shown that the unpredictable systems can be controlled by sign strings which uniquely define the system behaviors by specifying the direction of the motions in the critical points. By changing the combinations of signs in the code strings the system can reproduce any prescribed behavior to a prescribed accuracy.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  14. Modeling seasonal interactions in the population dynamics of migratory birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Marra, P.P.; Greenberg, Russell; Marra, Peter P.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds requires understanding the relevant biological events that occur during breeding, migratory, and overwintering periods. The few available population models for passerine birds focus on breeding-season events, disregard or oversimplify events during nonbreeding periods, and ignore interactions that occur between periods of the annual cycle. Identifying and explicitly incorporating seasonal interactions into population models for migratory birds could provide important insights about when population limitation actually occurs in the annual cycle. We present a population model for the annual cycle of a migratory bird, based on the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) but more generally applicable, that examines the importance of seasonal interactions by incorporating: (1) density dependence during the breeding and winter seasons, (2) a carry-over effect of winter habitat on breeding-season productivity, and (3) the effects of behavioral dominance on seasonal and habitat specific demographic rates. First, we show that habitat availability on both the wintering and breeding grounds can strongly affect equilibrium population size and sex ratio. Second, sex ratio dynamics, as mediated by behavioral dominance, can affect all other aspects of population dynamics. Third, carry-over effects can be strong, especially when winter events are limiting. These results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds may require more consideration of the seasonal interactions induced by carry-over effects and density dependence in multiple seasons. This model provides a framework in which to explore more fully these seasonal dynamics and a context for estimation of life history parameters.

  15. Africa's population and family planning dynamics.

    PubMed

    Segal, A

    1993-01-01

    The historical and current demography of Africa in this discussion focuses on the context of population policy, contraceptive use, reproductive behavior, polygamy, and economic impacts. Sub-Saharan Africa countries have the highest rate of population growth in the world. 50% are aged under 20 years, and 20% are aged under five years. Urban areas are growing at the fastest rates in the world (5-6% annually). Population density remains low, except for areas where there is high soil fertility. Many African countries recognize the need for population policies. The most important donor to Africa, the World Bank, has pressured African governments to adopt family planning (FP) programs. A major World Bank study has shown that more FP services are desired by African women. Family expenditures for the 1980s for FP were estimated at $100 million annually, of which $53 million was provided by donors. Further expansion in the program is needed. The World Bank targeted contraceptive use at 25% of African married couples. Except for Egypt and North African countries, contraceptive use is around 3-4%. Another perspective on population reduction is to expand programs for child spacing and postnatal nutrition of mothers and infants. There has been a failure to turn health systems around to low-cost preventive health, particularly in rural areas. Infant mortality must be reduced before fertility will decline. Population growth can be slowed by changing the status of African women (high social status and recognition are associated with high fertility), age of marriage, child spacing, agricultural productivity, and nutrition. Demographic data on Africa have only become available during the past 25 years. African demographers are in short supply and require training abroad. Demographic data gaps and reliability problems are offset by the recent availability and quantity of survey data. Historical demography has produced conflicting results. Although some investigators, such as Ester

  16. Population dynamics of Anopheles nuneztovari in Colombia.

    PubMed

    Naranjo-Díaz, Nelson; Sallum, Maria Anice M; Correa, Margarita M

    2016-11-01

    Anopheles nuneztovari is an important Colombian malaria vector widespread on both sides of the Andean Mountains, presenting morphological, behavioral and genetic heterogeneity throughout the country. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the population structure and distribution of An. nuneztovari in Colombia are associated with ecological and physical barriers present in a heterogeneous landscape. Further, differences in behavior were addressed. A total of 5392 specimens of An. nuneztovari were collected. Mitochondrial and nuclear marker analyses detected subdivision among the northwest-west, northeast and east populations. For both markers, isolation by distance (~53%) and isolation by resistance (>30%) were determinants of population genetic differentiation. This suggests that physical barriers, geographical distance and ecological differences on both sides of the Andean Mountains promoted the genetic differentiation and population subdivision of An. nuneztovari in Colombia. This species showed the highest biting activity after 20:00h; indoor and outdoor preferences were found in all localities. These results indicated that the most effective interventions for controlling vector populations on both sides of the Andes need to be region-specific. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Complex population dynamics and the coalescent under neutrality.

    PubMed

    Volz, Erik M

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of the coalescent effective population size N(e) can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between N(e) and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of N(e) such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics.

  18. Synchronization and stability in noisy population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Araujo, Sabrina B L; de Aguiar, M A M

    2008-02-01

    We study the stability and synchronization of predator-prey populations subjected to noise. The system is described by patches of local populations coupled by migration and predation over a neighborhood. When a single patch is considered, random perturbations tend to destabilize the populations, leading to extinction. If the number of patches is small, stabilization in the presence of noise is maintained at the expense of synchronization. As the number of patches increases, both the stability and the synchrony among patches increase. However, a residual asynchrony, large compared with the noise amplitude, seems to persist even in the limit of an infinite number of patches. Therefore, the mechanism of stabilization by asynchrony recently proposed by Abta [Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 098104 (2007)], combining noise, diffusion, and nonlinearities, seems to be more general than first proposed.

  19. Transradial approach for coronary procedures in the elderly population

    PubMed Central

    Aamir, Shamsi; Mohammed, Shah; Sudhir, Rathore

    2016-01-01

    Transradial cardiac catheterisation has been reported to be more beneficial compared to other approaches with easier and safer post-procedural haemostasis, better patient comfort, earlier ambulation and possibility of performing procedure and discharge on the same day. There is only limited data examining transradial access in the elderly population. In this review we looked at the available literature to give an insight into how the transradial approach compared to the transfemoral and other approaches in the elderly population. Elderly population is at higher risk of vascular access site bleeding and the transradial approach has shown equal efficacy to transfemoral approach. However, transradial approach significantly reduces vascular complications, hospital stay, mobilization times and adverse cardiac events. Therefore, transradial approach should be considered as the preferred vascular access site in the elderly population. PMID:27899945

  20. Effects of Culling on Mesopredator Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beasley, James C.; Olson, Zachary H.; Beatty, William S.; Dharmarajan, Guha; Rhodes, Olin E.

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor) from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008–2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given the slow

  1. Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

  2. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

  3. Long timestep dynamics of peptides by the dynamics driver approach.

    PubMed

    Derreumaux, P; Schlick, T

    1995-04-01

    Previous experience with the Langevin/implicit-Euler scheme for dynamics ("LI") on model systems (butane, water) has shown that LI is numerically stable for timesteps in the 5-20 fs range but quenches high-frequency modes. To explore applications to polypeptides, we apply LI to model systems (several dipeptides, a tetrapeptide, and a 13-residue oligoalanine) and also develop a new dynamics driver approach ("DA"). The DA scheme, based on LI, addresses the important issue of proper sampling, which is unlikely to be solved by small-timestep integration methods or implicit methods with intrinsic damping at room temperature, such as LI. Equilibrium averages, time-dependent molecular properties, and sampling trends at room temperature are reported for both LI and DA dynamics simulations, which are then compared to those generated by a standard explicit discretization of the Langevin equation with a 1 fs timestep. We find that LI's quenching effects are severe on both the fast and slow (due to vibrational coupling) frequency modes of all-atom polypeptides and lead to more restricted dynamics at moderate timesteps (40 fs). The DA approach empirically counteracts these damping effects by adding random atomic perturbations to the coordinates at each step (before the minimization of a dynamics function). By restricting the energetic fluctuations and controlling the kinetic energy, we are able with a 60 fs timestep to generate continuous trajectories that sample more of the relevant conformational space and also reproduce reasonably Boltzmann statistics. Although the timescale for transition may be accelerated by the DA approach, the transitional information obtained for the alanine dipeptide and the tetrapeptide is consistent with that obtained by several other theoretical approaches that focus specifically on the determination of pathways. While the trajectory for oligoalanine by the explicit scheme over the nanosecond timeframe remains in the vicinity of the full alpha R

  4. Noise-induced stabilization in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Parker, Matthew; Kamenev, Alex; Meerson, Baruch

    2011-10-28

    We investigate a model in which strong noise in a subpopulation creates a metastable state in an otherwise unstable two-population system. The induced metastable state is vortexlike, and its persistence time grows exponentially with the noise strength. A variety of distinct scaling relations are observed depending on the relative strength of the subpopulation noises.

  5. A Biomass Flow Approach to Population Models and Food Webs.

    PubMed

    Getz, Wayne M

    2012-02-01

    The dominant differential equation paradigm for modeling the population dynamics of species interacting in the framework of a food web retains at its core the basic prey-predator and competition models formulation by Alfred J. Lotka (1880-1945) and Vito Volterra (1860-1940) nearly nine decades ago. This paradigm lacks a trophic-level-independent formulation of population growth leading to ambiguities in how to treat populations that are simultaneously both prey and predator. Also, this paradigm does not fundamentally include inertial (i.e. change resisting) processes needed to account for the response of populations to fluctuating resource environments. Here I present an approach that corrects both these deficits and provides a unified framework for accounting for biomass transformation in food webs that include both live and dead components of all species in the system. This biomass transformation formulation (BTW) allows for a unified treatment of webs that include consumers of both live and dead material-both carnivores and carcasivores, herbivores and detritivores-and incorporates scavengers, parasites, and other neglected food web consumption categories in a coherent manner. I trace how BTW is an outgrowth of the metaphysiological growth modeling paradigm and I provide a general compact formulation of BTW in terms of a three-variable differential equation formulation for each species in the food web: viz. live biomass, dead biomass, and a food-intake-related measure called deficit-stress. I then illustrate the application of this new paradigm to provide insights into two-species competition in variable environments and discuss application of BTW to food webs that incorporate parasites and pathogens.

  6. A Biomass Flow Approach to Population Models and Food Webs

    PubMed Central

    Getz, Wayne M.

    2011-01-01

    The dominant differential equation paradigm for modeling the population dynamics of species interacting in the framework of a food web retains at its core the basic prey-predator and competition models formulation by Alfred J. Lotka (1880–1945) and Vito Volterra (1860–1940) nearly nine decades ago. This paradigm lacks a trophic-level-independent formulation of population growth leading to ambiguities in how to treat populations that are simultaneously both prey and predator. Also, this paradigm does not fundamentally include inertial (i.e. change resisting) processes needed to account for the response of populations to fluctuating resource environments. Here I present an approach that corrects both these deficits and provides a unified framework for accounting for biomass transformation in food webs that include both live and dead components of all species in the system. This biomass transformation formulation (BTW) allows for a unified treatment of webs that include consumers of both live and dead material—both carnivores and carcasivores, herbivores and detritivores—and incorporates scavengers, parasites, and other neglected food web consumption categories in a coherent manner. I trace how BTW is an outgrowth of the metaphysiological growth modeling paradigm and I provide a general compact formulation of BTW in terms of a three-variable differential equation formulation for each species in the food web: viz. live biomass, dead biomass, and a food-intake-related measure called deficit-stress. I then illustrate the application of this new paradigm to provide insights into two-species competition in variable environments and discuss application of BTW to food webs that incorporate parasites and pathogens. PMID:27688596

  7. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  8. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  9. The 5:1 Neptune Resonance: Dynamics and Population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pike, Rosemary E.; Kavelaars, J. J.; Gladman, Brett; Petit, Jean-Marc; Alexandersen, Mike

    2014-11-01

    Based on 4 objects detected with semi-major axes near the 5:1 external resonance with Neptune, we estimate a substantial and previously unrecognized population of objects, perhaps more significant than the 3:2 (Plutino) resonance population. These external resonances are largely unexplored in both observations and dynamical simulations. However, understanding the characteristics and trapping history for objects in these populations is critical for constraining the dynamical history of the solar system. The 4 objects detected in the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) were classified using dynamical integrations. Three are resonant, and the last appears to be a resonant drop-off. The 3 objects are taken to be representative of the steady-state population, so by using these detections and the CFEPS characterization (pointings and detection limits) we calculate a population estimate for this resonance at ~3000(+5000 -2000) with Hg<8. This is at least as large as the Plutinos (3:2 resonance) at 90% confidence. The small number of detected objects results in such a large population estimate due to the numerous biases against detecting objects with semimajor axes at 88AU. Based on the dynamical behavior of the known objects, the trapping mechanism for the 5:1 resonance appears to be resonance sticking from the scattering objects. The long resonance lifetimes of some dynamical clones suggests that a steady state population could be maintained through periodic sticking.

  10. Hamiltonian Approach to the Dynamical Casimir Effect

    SciTech Connect

    Haro, Jaume; Elizalde, Emilio

    2006-09-29

    A Hamiltonian approach is introduced in order to address some severe problems associated with the physical description of the dynamical Casimir effect at all times. For simplicity, the case of a neutral scalar field in a one-dimensional cavity with partially transmitting mirrors (an essential proviso) is considered, but the method can be extended to fields of any kind and higher dimensions. The motional force calculated in our approach contains a reactive term--proportional to the mirrors' acceleration - which is fundamental in order to obtain (quasi)particles with a positive energy all the time during the movement of the mirrors - while always satisfying the energy conservation law. Comparisons with other approaches and a careful analysis of the interrelations among the different results previously obtained in the literature are carried out.

  11. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

    PubMed Central

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-01-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  12. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-07-07

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.

  13. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  14. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Treesearch

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  15. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  16. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  17. Advances in Quantum Trajectory Approaches to Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Askar, Attila

    2001-03-01

    The quantum fluid dynamics (QFD) formulation is based on the separation of the amplitude and phase of the complex wave function in Schrodinger's equation. The approach leads to conservation laws for an equivalent "gas continuum". The Lagrangian [1] representation corresponds to following the particles of the fluid continuum, i. e. calculating "quantum trajectories". The Eulerian [2] representation on the other hand, amounts to observing the dynamics of the gas continuum at the points of a fixed coordinate frame. The combination of several factors leads to a most encouraging computational efficiency. QFD enables the numerical analysis to deal with near monotonic amplitude and phase functions. The Lagrangian description concentrates the computation effort to regions of highest probability as an optimal adaptive grid. The Eulerian representation allows the study of multi-coordinate problems as a set of one-dimensional problems within an alternating direction methodology. An explicit time integrator limits the increase in computational effort with the number of discrete points to linear. Discretization of the space via local finite elements [1,2] and global radial functions [3] will be discussed. Applications include wave packets in four-dimensional quadratic potentials and two coordinate photo-dissociation problems for NOCl and NO2. [1] "Quantum fluid dynamics (QFD) in the Lagrangian representation with applications to photo-dissociation problems", F. Sales, A. Askar and H. A. Rabitz, J. Chem. Phys. 11, 2423 (1999) [2] "Multidimensional wave-packet dynamics within the fluid dynamical formulation of the Schrodinger equation", B. Dey, A. Askar and H. A. Rabitz, J. Chem. Phys. 109, 8770 (1998) [3] "Solution of the quantum fluid dynamics equations with radial basis function interpolation", Xu-Guang Hu, Tak-San Ho, H. A. Rabitz and A. Askar, Phys. Rev. E. 61, 5967 (2000)

  18. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms.

  19. Gauge-invariant approach to quark dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sazdjian, H.

    2016-02-01

    The main aspects of a gauge-invariant approach to the description of quark dynamics in the nonperturbative regime of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) are first reviewed. The role of the parallel transport operation in constructing gauge-invariant Green's functions is then presented, and the relevance of Wilson loops for the representation of the interaction is emphasized. Recent developments, based on the use of polygonal lines for the parallel transport operation, are presented. An integro-differential equation, obtained for the quark Green's function defined with a phase factor along a single, straight line segment, is solved exactly and analytically in the case of two-dimensional QCD in the large- N c limit. The solution displays the dynamical mass generation phenomenon for quarks, with an infinite number of branch-cut singularities that are stronger than simple poles.

  20. Stability threshold approach for complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    A new measure to characterize the stability of complex dynamical systems against large perturbations is suggested, the stability threshold (ST). It quantifies the magnitude of the weakest perturbation capable of disrupting the system and switch it to an undesired dynamical regime. In the phase space, the ST corresponds to the ‘thinnest site’ of the attraction basin and therefore indicates the most ‘dangerous’ direction of perturbations. We introduce a computational algorithm for quantification of the ST and demonstrate that the suggested approach is effective and provides important insights. The generality of the obtained results defines their vast potential for application in such fields as engineering, neuroscience, power grids, Earth science and many others where the robustness of complex systems is studied.

  1. Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates.

    PubMed

    Gill, Mandev S; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A

    2016-11-01

    Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman's coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late

  2. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    PubMed

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  3. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  4. [The mathematical modelling of population dynamics taking into account the adaptive behavior of individuals].

    PubMed

    Abakumov, A I

    2000-01-01

    The general approach for modelling of abundance dynamic of biological populations and communities is offered. The mechanisms of individual adaptation in changing environment are considered. The approach is detailed for population models without structure and with age structure. The property of solutions are investigated. As examples the author studies the concrete definitions of general models by analogy with models of Ricker and May. Theoretical analysis and calculations shows that survival of model population in extreme situation increases if adaptive behaviour is taking into account.

  5. Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii.

    PubMed

    Salvidio, Sebastiano

    2007-05-01

    Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993-2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.

  6. Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvidio, Sebastiano

    2007-05-01

    Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993 2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.

  7. A behaviorally explicit demographic model integrating habitat selection and population dynamics in california sea lions.

    PubMed

    González-Suárez, Manuela; Gerber, Leah R

    2008-12-01

    Although there has been a call for the integration of behavioral ecology and conservation biology, there are few tools currently available to achieve this integration. Explicitly including information about behavioral strategies in population viability analyses may enhance the ability of conservation biologists to understand and estimate patterns of extinction risk. Nevertheless, most behavioral-based PVA approaches require detailed individual-based data that are rarely available for imperiled species. We present a mechanistic approach that incorporates spatial and demographic consequences of behavioral strategies into population models used for conservation. We developed a stage-structured matrix model that includes the costs and benefits of movement associated with 2 habitat-selection strategies (philopatry and direct assessment). Using a life table for California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), we explored the sensitivity of model predictions to the inclusion of these behavioral parameters. Including behavioral information dramatically changed predicted population sizes, model dynamics, and the expected distribution of individuals among sites. Estimated population sizes projected in 100 years diverged up to 1 order of magnitude among scenarios that assumed different movement behavior. Scenarios also exhibited different model dynamics that ranged from stable equilibria to cycles or extinction. These results suggest that inclusion of behavioral data in viability models may improve estimates of extinction risk for imperiled species. Our approach provides a simple method for incorporating spatial and demographic consequences of behavioral strategies into population models and may be easily extended to other species and behaviors to understand the mechanisms of population dynamics for imperiled populations.

  8. Exploring Population Admixture Dynamics via Empirical and Simulated Genome-wide Distribution of Ancestral Chromosomal Segments

    PubMed Central

    Jin, Wenfei; Wang, Sijia; Wang, Haifeng; Jin, Li; Xu, Shuhua

    2012-01-01

    The processes of genetic admixture determine the haplotype structure and linkage disequilibrium patterns of the admixed population, which is important for medical and evolutionary studies. However, most previous studies do not consider the inherent complexity of admixture processes. Here we proposed two approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, and we demonstrated, by analyzing genome-wide empirical and simulated data, that the approach based on the distribution of chromosomal segments of distinct ancestry (CSDAs) was more powerful than that based on the distribution of individual ancestry proportions. Analysis of 1,890 African Americans showed that a continuous gene flow model, in which the African American population continuously received gene flow from European populations over about 14 generations, best explained the admixture dynamics of African Americans among several putative models. Interestingly, we observed that some African Americans had much more European ancestry than the simulated samples, indicating substructures of local ancestries in African Americans that could have been caused by individuals from some particular lineages having repeatedly admixed with people of European ancestry. In contrast, the admixture dynamics of Mexicans could be explained by a gradual admixture model in which the Mexican population continuously received gene flow from both European and Amerindian populations over about 24 generations. Our results also indicated that recent gene flows from Sub-Saharan Africans have contributed to the gene pool of Middle Eastern populations such as Mozabite, Bedouin, and Palestinian. In summary, this study not only provides approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, but also advances our understanding on population history of African Americans, Mexicans, and Middle Eastern populations. PMID:23103229

  9. Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

    PubMed Central

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

  10. A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Myerscough, Mary R.; Barron, Andrew B.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  11. Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

    PubMed Central

    Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-01-01

    Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

  12. A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

    2011-04-18

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

  13. Dynamics of plankton populations in upwelling areas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Szekielda, K. H. (Principal Investigator)

    1975-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Spectral properties of the upwelled waters off the NW coast of Africa were studied with observations derived from aircraft and Skylab. Results indicate that the two-channel, ratio approach is ineffective in determining surface chlorophyll concentrations. Ocean color boundaries and temperature gradients were found to be directly correlated with each other and also with fishing effort in the upwelling region. Photographic and scanner data derived from Skylab were effective in locating ocean boundaries and mapping temperature distributions.

  14. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

    PubMed

    Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

    2008-10-23

    Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

  15. Population dynamics and the ecological stability of obligate pollination mutualisms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2001-01-01

    Mutualistic interactions almost always produce both costs and benefits for each of the interacting species. It is the difference between gross benefits and costs that determines the net benefit and the per-capita effect on each of the interacting populations. For example, the net benefit of obligate pollinators, such as yucca and senita moths, to plants is determined by the difference between the number of ovules fertilized from moth pollination and the number of ovules eaten by the pollinator's larvae. It is clear that if pollinator populations are large, then, because many eggs are laid, costs to plants are large, whereas, if pollinator populations are small, gross benefits are low due to lack of pollination. Even though the size and dynamics of the pollinator population are likely to be crucial, their importance has been neglected in the investigation of mechanisms, such as selective fruit abortion, that can limit costs and increase net benefits. Here, we suggest that both the population size and dynamics of pollinators are important in determining the net benefits to plants, and that fruit abortion can significantly affect these. We develop a model of mutualism between populations of plants and their pollinating seed-predators to explore the ecological consequences of fruit abortion on pollinator population dynamics and the net effect on plants. We demonstrate that the benefit to a plant population is unimodal as a function of pollinator abundance, relative to the abundance of flowers. Both selective abortion of fruit with eggs and random abortion of fruit, without reference to whether they have eggs or not, can limit pollinator population size. This can increase the net benefits to the plant population by limiting the number of eggs laid, if the pollination rate remains high. However, fruit abortion can possibly destabilize the pollinator population, with negative consequences for the plant population.

  16. Semiclassical approach to dynamics of interacting fermions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Shainen M.; Sels, Dries; Polkovnikov, Anatoli

    2017-09-01

    Understanding the behaviour of interacting fermions is of fundamental interest in many fields ranging from condensed matter to high energy physics. Developing numerically efficient and accurate simulation methods is an indispensable part of this. Already in equilibrium, fermions are notoriously hard to handle due to the sign problem. Out of equilibrium, an important outstanding problem is the efficient numerical simulation of the dynamics of these systems. In this work we develop a new semiclassical phase-space approach (a.k.a. the truncated Wigner approximation) for simulating the dynamics of interacting fermions in arbitrary dimensions. As fermions are essentially non-classical objects, a phase-space is constructed out of all fermionic bilinears. Classical phase-space is thus comprised of highly non-local (hidden) variables representing these bilinears, and the cost of the method is that it scales quadratic rather than linear with system size. We demonstrate the strength of the method by comparing the results to the exact quantum dynamics of fermion expansion in the Hubbard model and quantum thermalization in the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model for small systems, where the semiclassics nearly perfectly reproduces correct results. We furthermore analyse fermion expansion in a larger, intractable by exact methods, 2D Hubbard model, which is directly relevant to recent cold atom experiments.

  17. Time Discretization Approach to Dynamic Localization Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papp, E.

    An alternative wavefunction to the description of the dynamic localization of a charged particle moving on a one-dimensional lattice under the influence of a periodic time dependent electric field is written down. For this purpose the method of characteristics such as applied by Dunlap and Kenkre [Phys. Rev. B 34, 3625 (1986)] has been modified by using a different integration variable. Handling this wavefunction one is faced with the selection of admissible time values. This results in a conditionally exactly solvable problem, now by accounting specifically for the implementation of a time discretization working in conjunction with a related dynamic localization condition. In addition, one resorts to the strong field limit, which amounts to replace, to leading order, the large order zeros of the Bessel function J0(z), used before in connection with the cosinusoidal modulation, by integral multiples of π. Here z stands for the ratio between the field amplitude and the frequency. The modulation function of the electric field vanishes on the nodal points of the time grid, which stands for an effective field-free behavior. This opens the way to propose quickly tractable dynamic localization conditions for arbitrary periodic modulations. We have also found that the present time discretization approach produces the minimization of the mean square displacement characterizing the usual exact wavefunction. Other realizations and comparisons have also been presented.

  18. Transient population dynamics: Relations to life history and initial population state

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, D.N.; Grand, J.B.; Zinner, B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    2005-01-01

    Most environments are variable and disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, fires) can lead to substantial changes in a population's state (i.e., age, stage, or size distribution). In these situations, the long-term (i.e., asymptotic) measure of population growth rate (??1) may inaccurately represent population growth in the short-term. Thus, we calculated the short-term (i.e., transient) population growth rate and its sensitivity to changes in the life-cycle parameters for three bird and three mammal species with widely varying life histories. Further, we performed these calculations for initial population states that spanned the entire range of possibilities. Variation in a population's initial net reproductive value largely explained the variation in transient growth rates and their sensitivities to changes in life-cycle parameters (all AICc ??? 6.67 units better than the null model, all R2 ??? 0.55). Additionally, the transient fertility and adult survival sensitivities tended to increase with the initial net reproductive value of the population, whereas the sub-adult survival sensitivity decreased. Transient population dynamics of long-lived, slow reproducing species were more variable and more different than asymptotic dynamics than they were for short-lived, fast reproducing species. Because ??1 can be a biased estimate of the actual growth rate in the short-term (e.g., 19% difference), conservation and wildlife biologists should consider transient dynamics when developing management plans that could affect a population's state, or whenever population state could be unstable.

  19. Structural Perturbations to Population Skeletons: Transient Dynamics, Coexistence of Attractors and the Rarity of Chaos

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Brajendra K.; Parham, Paul E.; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2011-01-01

    Background Simple models of insect populations with non-overlapping generations have been instrumental in understanding the mechanisms behind population cycles, including wild (chaotic) fluctuations. The presence of deterministic chaos in natural populations, however, has never been unequivocally accepted. Recently, it has been proposed that the application of chaos control theory can be useful in unravelling the complexity observed in real population data. This approach is based on structural perturbations to simple population models (population skeletons). The mechanism behind such perturbations to control chaotic dynamics thus far is model dependent and constant (in size and direction) through time. In addition, the outcome of such structurally perturbed models is [almost] always equilibrium type, which fails to commensurate with the patterns observed in population data. Methodology/Principal Findings We present a proportional feedback mechanism that is independent of model formulation and capable of perturbing population skeletons in an evolutionary way, as opposed to requiring constant feedbacks. We observe the same repertoire of patterns, from equilibrium states to non-chaotic aperiodic oscillations to chaotic behaviour, across different population models, in agreement with observations in real population data. Model outputs also indicate the existence of multiple attractors in some parameter regimes and this coexistence is found to depend on initial population densities or the duration of transient dynamics. Our results suggest that such a feedback mechanism may enable a better understanding of the regulatory processes in natural populations. PMID:21980342

  20. Dynamically Reconfigurable Approach to Multidisciplinary Problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexandrov, Natalie M.; Lewis, Robert Michael

    2003-01-01

    The complexity and autonomy of the constituent disciplines and the diversity of the disciplinary data formats make the task of integrating simulations into a multidisciplinary design optimization problem extremely time-consuming and difficult. We propose a dynamically reconfigurable approach to MDO problem formulation wherein an appropriate implementation of the disciplinary information results in basic computational components that can be combined into different MDO problem formulations and solution algorithms, including hybrid strategies, with relative ease. The ability to re-use the computational components is due to the special structure of the MDO problem. We believe that this structure can and should be used to formulate and solve optimization problems in the multidisciplinary context. The present work identifies the basic computational components in several MDO problem formulations and examines the dynamically reconfigurable approach in the context of a popular class of optimization methods. We show that if the disciplinary sensitivity information is implemented in a modular fashion, the transfer of sensitivity information among the formulations under study is straightforward. This enables not only experimentation with a variety of problem formations in a research environment, but also the flexible use of formulations in a production design environment.

  1. Multiscale model approach for magnetization dynamics simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lucia, Andrea; Krüger, Benjamin; Tretiakov, Oleg A.; Kläui, Mathias

    2016-11-01

    Simulations of magnetization dynamics in a multiscale environment enable the rapid evaluation of the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation in a mesoscopic sample with nanoscopic accuracy in areas where such accuracy is required. We have developed a multiscale magnetization dynamics simulation approach that can be applied to large systems with spin structures that vary locally on small length scales. To implement this, the conventional micromagnetic simulation framework has been expanded to include a multiscale solving routine. The software selectively simulates different regions of a ferromagnetic sample according to the spin structures located within in order to employ a suitable discretization and use either a micromagnetic or an atomistic model. To demonstrate the validity of the multiscale approach, we simulate the spin wave transmission across the regions simulated with the two different models and different discretizations. We find that the interface between the regions is fully transparent for spin waves with frequency lower than a certain threshold set by the coarse scale micromagnetic model with no noticeable attenuation due to the interface between the models. As a comparison to exact analytical theory, we show that in a system with a Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction leading to spin spirals, the simulated multiscale result is in good quantitative agreement with the analytical calculation.

  2. Population dynamics of white-winged scoters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Brown, P.W.; Kehoe, F.P.; Houston, C.S.

    1997-01-01

    A significant (P < 0.01) decline between 1961 and 1993 in ratio of harvested young per adult in the Atlantic Flyway (age ration) of white-winged scoters (Melanitta fusca) led us to examine annual survival rates and harvest of this species. Compared to waterfowl with similar life histories, black scoters (M. nigra) and surf scoters (M. perspicillata), the decline in age ratios of white-winged scoter age ratios was not significantly different (P = 0.11). Adult females banded at Redberry Lake, Saskatchewan that winter along both coasts, had high annual survival rates (0.773 plus or minus 0.0176 [SE]). High harvest in the Atlantic Flyway was not followed by an increase in production (age ratios) the following year or 2, i.e., there was no short-term rebound in recruitment by the population. Harvest of white-winged scoters in the Atlantic Flyway was explained by the age ratio in the fall flight and by hunter effort.

  3. Unstable dynamics and population limitation in mountain hares.

    PubMed

    Newey, Scott; Dahl, Fredrik; Willebrand, Tomas; Thirgood, Simon

    2007-11-01

    The regular large-scale population fluctuations that characterize many species of northern vertebrates have fascinated ecologists since the time of Charles Elton. There is still, however, no clear consensus on what drives these fluctuations. Throughout their circumpolar distribution, mountain hares Lepus timidus show regular and at times dramatic changes in density. There are distinct differences in the nature, amplitude and periodicity of these fluctuations between regions and the reasons for these population fluctuations and the geographic differences remain largely unknown. In this review we synthesize knowledge on the factors that limit or regulate mountain hare populations across their range in an attempt to identify the drivers of unstable dynamics. Current knowledge of mountain hare population dynamics indicates that trophic interactions--either predator-prey or host-parasite--appear to be the major factor limiting populations and these interactions may contribute to the observed unstable dynamics. There is correlative and experimental evidence that some mountain hare populations in Fennoscandia are limited by predation and that predation may link hare and grouse cycles to microtine cycles. Predation is unlikely to be important in mountain hare populations in Scotland as most hares occur on sporting estates where predators are controlled, but this hypothesis remains to be experimentally tested. There is, however, emerging experimental evidence that some Scottish mountain hare populations are limited by parasites and that host-parasite interactions contribute to unstable dynamics. By contrast, there is little evidence from Fennoscandia that parasitism is of any importance to mountain hare population dynamics, although disease may cause periodic declines. Although severe weather and food limitation may interact to cause periodic high winter mortality there is little evidence that food availability limits mountain hare populations. There is a paucity of

  4. Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ross, Beth E; Hooten, Mevin B; DeVink, Jean-Michel; Koons, David N

    2015-09-01

    An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup (Aythya) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potentil interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding. conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.

  5. Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

    2016-02-01

    The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

  6. Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

    2008-01-01

    Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

  7. Social Determinants of Population Health: A Systems Sciences Approach

    PubMed Central

    Fink, David S.; Keyes, Katherine M.; Cerdá, Magdalena

    2016-01-01

    Population distributions of health emerge from the complex interplay of health-related factors at multiple levels, from the biological to the societal level. Individuals are aggregated within social networks, affected by their locations, and influenced differently across time. From aggregations of individuals, group properties can emerge, including some exposures that are ubiquitous within populations but variant across populations. By combining a focus on social determinants of health with a conceptual framework for understanding how genetics, biology, behavior, psychology, society, and environment interact, a systems science approach can inform our understanding of the underlying causes of the unequal distribution of health across generations and populations, and can help us identify promising approaches to reduce such inequalities. In this paper, we discuss how systems science approaches have already made several substantive and methodological contributions to the study of population health from a social epidemiology perspective. PMID:27642548

  8. Social Determinants of Population Health: A Systems Sciences Approach.

    PubMed

    Fink, David S; Keyes, Katherine M; Cerdá, Magdalena

    2016-03-01

    Population distributions of health emerge from the complex interplay of health-related factors at multiple levels, from the biological to the societal level. Individuals are aggregated within social networks, affected by their locations, and influenced differently across time. From aggregations of individuals, group properties can emerge, including some exposures that are ubiquitous within populations but variant across populations. By combining a focus on social determinants of health with a conceptual framework for understanding how genetics, biology, behavior, psychology, society, and environment interact, a systems science approach can inform our understanding of the underlying causes of the unequal distribution of health across generations and populations, and can help us identify promising approaches to reduce such inequalities. In this paper, we discuss how systems science approaches have already made several substantive and methodological contributions to the study of population health from a social epidemiology perspective.

  9. Gardnerella vaginalis population dynamics in bacterial vaginosis.

    PubMed

    Hilbert, D W; Schuyler, J A; Adelson, M E; Mordechai, E; Sobel, J D; Gygax, S E

    2017-02-14

    Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is the leading cause of vaginal discharge and is associated with the facultative Gram-variable bacterium Gardnerella vaginalis, whose population structure consists of four clades. Our goal was to determine if these clades differ with regard to abundance during BV. We performed a short-term longitudinal study of BV. Patients were evaluated according to the Amsel criteria and Nugent scoring at initial diagnosis, immediately after treatment and at a 40- to 45-day follow-up visit. G. vaginalis clade abundance was determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reactions (qPCRs). Among all specimens, the abundance of clades 1 and 4 were higher than that of clades 2 and 3 (P < 0.001). In general, the abundance of each clade increased with the degree of vaginal dysbiosis, as determined by the Nugent score and was greater in women with Amsel 4 compared with those with Amsel 0. Only clade 1 abundance was greater when Amsel 0 or 1 specimens were compared with Amsel 2 or 3 specimens (P < 0.01). Following antimicrobial treatment, abundance of clades 1 (P < 0.001) and 4 (P < 0.05) decreased regardless of the clinical and microbiological outcome, whereas clade 2 only decreased in women who had a sustained treatment response for 40-45 days (P < 0.01). Recurrent BV was characterized by post-treatment increases of clade 1 and 2 (P < 0.01). Clades 1 and 4 predominate in vaginal specimens. Clade abundance differs with regard to the Nugent score, the Amsel criteria, and response to therapy and BV recurrence.

  10. Generation time and temporal scaling of bird population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Saether, Bernt-Erik; Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Weimerskirch, Henri; Lillegård, Magnar; Altwegg, Res; Becker, Peter H; Bregnballe, Thomas; Brommer, Jon E; McCleery, Robin H; Merilä, Juha; Nyholm, Erik; Rendell, Wallace; Robertson, Raleigh R; Tryjanowski, Piotr; Visser, Marcel E

    2005-07-07

    Theoretical studies have shown that variation in density regulation strongly influences population dynamics, yet our understanding of factors influencing the strength of density dependence in natural populations still is limited. Consequently, few general hypotheses have been advanced to explain the large differences between species in the magnitude of population fluctuations. One reason for this is that the detection of density regulation in population time series is complicated by time lags induced by the life history of species that make it difficult to separate the relative contributions of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to the population dynamics. Here we use population time series for 23 bird species to estimate parameters of a stochastic density-dependent age-structured model. We show that both the strength of total density dependence in the life history and the magnitude of environmental stochasticity, including transient fluctuations in age structure, increase with generation time. These results indicate that the relationships between demographic and life-history traits in birds translate into distinct population dynamical patterns that are apparent only on a scale of generations.

  11. Locally dispersing populations in heterogeneous dynamic landscapes with spatiotemporal correlations. II. Habitat driven by voter dynamics.

    PubMed

    Hiebeler, David E; Hill, Jack L

    2016-10-21

    We examine a spatially explicit population model on a dynamic landscape with suitable and unsuitable habitat driven by voter or contagion dynamics. We consider four cases, consisting of all combinations of local and global interactions for both population dispersal and habitat dynamics. For both local and global population dispersal, using local habitat dynamics always increases population density relative to the case with global habitat dynamics, due to the resulting segregation of habitat turnover, decrease in effective habitat turnover rate, and presence of stable habitat corridors. With global habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal exhibits lower density than one with global dispersal due to local crowding as well as frequent disturbance due to habitat transitions. On the other hand, with local habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal can exploit suitable habitat patches and use dynamic corridors to colonize new regions. The latter effect is not seen with static landscapes, where clustered habitat can lead to the isolation of suitable patches due to surrounding unsuitable habitat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

  13. Real-time bioluminescent tracking of cellular population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Close, Dan; Xu, Tingting; Ripp, Steven; Sayler, Gary

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  14. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Close, Dan; Xu, Tingling; Ripp, Steven; Sayler, Gary

    2015-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods. PMID:24166372

  15. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Close, Dan; Sayler, Gary Steven; Xu, Tingting; Ripp, Steven Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  16. Spatially structured population dynamics in feral oilseed rape.

    PubMed Central

    Crawley, Michael J.; Brown, Susan L.

    2004-01-01

    We studied the population dynamics of feral oilseed rape (Brassica napus) for 10 years (1993-2002) in 3658 adjacent permanent 100 m quadrats in the verges of the M25 motorway around London, UK. The aim was to determine the relative importance of different factors affecting the observed temporal patterns of population dynamics and their spatial correlations. A wide range of population dynamics was observed (downward or upward trends, cycles, local extinctions and recolonizations), but overall the populations were not self-replacing (lambda < 1). Many quadrats remained unoccupied throughout the study period, but a few were occupied at high densities for all 10 years. Most quadrats showed transient oilseed rape populations, lasting 1-4 years. There were strong spatial patterns in mean population density, associated with soil conditions and the successional age of the plant community dominating the verge, and these large-scale spatial patterns were highly consistent from year to year. The importance of seed spilled from trucks in transit to the processing plant at Erith in Kent was confirmed: rape populations were significantly higher on the 'to Erith' verge than the 'from Erith' verge (overall mean 2.83-fold greater stem density). Quadrats in which lambda > 1 were much more frequent in the 'to Erith' verge, indicating that seed immigration can give the spurious impression of self-replacing population dynamics in time-series analysis. There was little evidence of a pervasive Moran effect, and climatic forcing did not produce widespread large-scale synchrony in population dynamics for the motorway as a whole; just 23% of quadrats had significant rank correlations with the mean time-series. There was, however, significant local spatial synchrony of population dynamics, apparently associated with soil disturbance and seed input. This study draws attention to the possibility that different processes may impose population synchrony at different scales. We hypothesize that

  17. Dynamical quorum sensing and clustering dynamics in a population of spatially distributed active rotators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Maeyama, Satomi

    2013-02-01

    A model of clustering dynamics is proposed for a population of spatially distributed active rotators. A transition from excitable to oscillatory dynamics is induced by the increase of the local density of active rotators. It is interpreted as dynamical quorum sensing. In the oscillation regime, phase waves propagate without decay, which generates an effectively long-range interaction in the clustering dynamics. The clustering process becomes facilitated and only one dominant cluster appears rapidly as a result of the dynamical quorum sensing. An exact localized solution is found to a simplified model equation, and the competitive dynamics between two localized states is studied numerically.

  18. HPV vaccination: Population approaches for improving rates

    PubMed Central

    Oliver, Kristin; Frawley, Alean; Garland, Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: To review the literature on interventions to increase HPV vaccinations and assess whether The Community Preventive Services Task Force recommendations are supported by current evidence. Methods: We used a PubMed search to identify studies that assessed interventions that looked at provider assessment and feedback, provider reminders, client reminder and recall, and clinic based education programs. Results: Of the 13 studies identified, 8 included client reminder and recall interventions, 4 included provider assessment and feedback and/or provider reminders and 2 included clinic based education. 11 of the 13 studies demonstrated a positive effect on HPV vaccine initiation or completion. Provider assessment and feedback studies were more likely to report a positive effect on HPV vaccine initiation than on series completion, while client reminder recall interventions more frequently produced an effect on series completion than on initiation. Conclusions: There is evidence to support the application of the Community Preventive Services Task Force recommendations specifically to HPV vaccination both for client reminder and recall programs and for provider assessment and feedback interventions. Multiple targeted approaches will be needed to substantially impact HPV vaccine rates. PMID:26890685

  19. Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives

    Treesearch

    David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

    2008-01-01

    Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

  20. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A; Urban, Marie L; Rose, Amy N; Coleman, Phil R; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  1. A Repeated Observation Approach for Estimating the Street Homeless Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berry, Brent

    2007-01-01

    Risks of life on the street caused by inclement weather, harassment, and assault threaten the unsheltered homeless population. We address some challenges of enumerating the street homeless population by testing a novel capture-recapture (CR) estimation approach that models individuals' intermittent daytime visibility. We tested walking and…

  2. A mathematical model of population dynamics for Batesian mimicry system.

    PubMed

    Seno, Hiromi; Kohno, Takahiro

    2012-01-01

    We analyse a mathematical model of the population dynamics among a mimic, a corresponding model, and their common predator populations. Predator changes its search-and-attack probability by forming and losing its search image. It cannot distinguish the mimic from the model. Once a predator eats a model individual, it comes to omit both the model and the mimic species from its diet menu. If a predator eats a mimic individual, it comes to increase the search-and-attack probability for both model and mimic. The predator may lose the repulsive/attractive search image with a probability per day. By analysing our model, we can derive the mathematical condition for the persistence of model and mimic populations, and then get the result that the condition for the persistence of model population does not depend on the mimic population size, while the condition for the persistence of mimic population does depend the predator's memory of search image.

  3. Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

    PubMed Central

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

  4. Asynchronous population dynamics of Siberian lemmings across the Palaearctic tundra.

    PubMed

    Erlinge, Sam; Danell, Kjell; Frodin, Peter; Hasselquist, Dennis; Nilsson, Patric; Olofsson, Eva-Britt; Svensson, Mikael

    1999-06-01

    The synchrony of Siberian lemming (Lemmus sibiricus L.) population dynamics was investigated during a ship-borne expedition along the Palaearctic tundra coast in the summer of 1994. On 12 sites along the coast from the Kola Peninsula to Wrangel Island, relative densities of lemmings were recorded using a standardised snap-trapping programme. The phase position of the lemming cycle in each of the studied populations was determined based on current density estimates, signs of previous density and the age profile of each population (ageing based on eye lens mass). In addition, dendrochronological methods were used to determine when the last peak in the density of microtine populations occurred at each site. The examined lemming populations were in different phases of the lemming cycle. Some populations were in the peak phase, as indicated by high current densities, an age profile in which older individuals were well represented, and signs of high previous density (abundant old lemming faeces). Other populations were in the decline phase, as reflected in a moderate current density, a predominance of older individuals and signs of high previous density. Populations in the low phase had an extremely low current density and showed signs of high previous density, while populations in the increase phase had a moderate current density, a predominance of younger individuals and showed signs of low previous density. The results of phase determinations based on dendrochronological methods support the findings based on lemming demography. Recent Russian studies carried out on some of the sites also agreed with our phase determination results. Thus, on a regional scale (across the whole Palaearctic tundra), the population dynamics of Siberian lemmings can be considered asynchronous. However, sites situated adjacent to each other were often phase synchronous, suggesting a more fine-grained pattern of dynamics with synchrony over distances as long as 1000 km or so, e.g. the Yamal

  5. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    PubMed

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  6. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  7. Dynamics of a combined Medea-underdominant population transformation system.

    PubMed

    Gokhale, Chaitanya S; Reeves, Richard Guy; Reed, Floyd A

    2014-05-07

    Transgenic constructs intended to be stably established at high frequencies in wild populations have been demonstrated to "drive" from low frequencies in experimental insect populations. Linking such population transformation constructs to genes which render them unable to transmit pathogens could eventually be used to stop the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue. Generally, population transformation constructs with only a single transgenic drive mechanism have been envisioned. Using a theoretical modelling approach we describe the predicted properties of a construct combining autosomal Medea and underdominant population transformation systems. We show that when combined they can exhibit synergistic properties which in broad circumstances surpass those of the single systems. With combined systems, intentional population transformation and its reversal can be achieved readily. Combined constructs also enhance the capacity to geographically restrict transgenic constructs to targeted populations. It is anticipated that these properties are likely to be of particular value in attracting regulatory approval and public acceptance of this novel technology.

  8. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

  9. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    PubMed

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  10. Radial propagation in population dynamics with density-dependent diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngamsaad, Waipot

    2014-01-01

    Population dynamics that evolve in a radial symmetric geometry are investigated. The nonlinear reaction-diffusion model, which depends on population density, is employed as the governing equation for this system. The approximate analytical solution to this equation is found. It shows that the population density evolves from the initial state and propagates in a traveling-wave-like manner for a long-time scale. If the distance is insufficiently long, the curvature has an ineluctable influence on the density profile and front speed. In comparison, the analytical solution is in agreement with the numerical solution.

  11. Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

    SciTech Connect

    Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim

    2016-06-08

    We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

  12. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  13. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    PubMed

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. [Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

    PubMed

    Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

    2014-09-01

    Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

  15. Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

    2012-01-01

    The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (σ = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

  16. Population dynamic theory of size-dependent cannibalism.

    PubMed Central

    Claessen, David; de Roos, André M.; Persson, Lennart

    2004-01-01

    Cannibalism is characterized by four aspects: killing victims, gaining energy from victims, size-dependent interactions and intraspecific competition. In this review of mathematical models of cannibalistic populations, we relate the predicted population dynamic consequences of cannibalism to its four defining aspects. We distinguish five classes of effects of cannibalism: (i) regulation of population size; (ii) destabilization resulting in population cycles or chaos; (iii) stabilization by damping population cycles caused by other interactions; (iv) bistability such that, depending on the initial conditions, the population converges to one of two possible stable states; and (v) modification of the population size structure. The same effects of cannibalism may be caused by different combinations of aspects of cannibalism. By contrast, the same combination of aspects may lead to different effects. For particular cannibalistic species, the consequences of cannibalism will depend on the presence and details of the four defining aspects. Empirical evidence for the emerged theory of cannibalism is discussed briefly. The implications of the described dynamic effects of cannibalism are discussed in the context of community structure, making a comparison with the community effects of intraguild predation. PMID:15101690

  17. A macroscopic approach to glacier dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harrison, W.D.; Raymond, C.F.; Echelmeyer, K.A.; Krimmel, R.M.

    2003-01-01

    A simple approach to glacier dynamics is explored in which there is postulated to be a relationship between area and volume with three parameters: the time for area to respond to changes in volume, a thickness scale, and an area characterizing the condition of the initial state. This approach gives a good fit to the measurements of cumulative balance and area on South Cascade Glacier from 1970-97; the area time-scale is roughly 8 years, the thickness scale about 123 m, and the 1970 area roughly 4% larger than required for adjustment with volume. Combining this relationship with a version of mass continuity expressed in terms of area and volume produces a theory of glacier area and volume response to climate in which another time constant, the volume time-scale, appears. Area and volume both respond like a damped spring and mass system. The damping of the South Cascade response is approximately critical, and the volume time-scale is roughly 48 years, six times the area time-scale. The critically damped spring and mass analogy reproduces the time dependence predicted by the more complicated traditional theory of Nye.

  18. Polymer Fluid Dynamics: Continuum and Molecular Approaches.

    PubMed

    Bird, R B; Giacomin, A J

    2016-06-07

    To solve problems in polymer fluid dynamics, one needs the equations of continuity, motion, and energy. The last two equations contain the stress tensor and the heat-flux vector for the material. There are two ways to formulate the stress tensor: (a) One can write a continuum expression for the stress tensor in terms of kinematic tensors, or (b) one can select a molecular model that represents the polymer molecule and then develop an expression for the stress tensor from kinetic theory. The advantage of the kinetic theory approach is that one gets information about the relation between the molecular structure of the polymers and the rheological properties. We restrict the discussion primarily to the simplest stress tensor expressions or constitutive equations containing from two to four adjustable parameters, although we do indicate how these formulations may be extended to give more complicated expressions. We also explore how these simplest expressions are recovered as special cases of a more general framework, the Oldroyd 8-constant model. Studying the simplest models allows us to discover which types of empiricisms or molecular models seem to be worth investigating further. We also explore equivalences between continuum and molecular approaches. We restrict the discussion to several types of simple flows, such as shearing flows and extensional flows, which are of greatest importance in industrial operations. Furthermore, if these simple flows cannot be well described by continuum or molecular models, then it is not necessary to lavish time and energy to apply them to more complex flow problems.

  19. A hierarchical state space approach to affective dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lodewyckx, Tom; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Kuppens, Peter; Allen, Nicholas; Sheeber, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Linear dynamical system theory is a broad theoretical framework that has been applied in various research areas such as engineering, econometrics and recently in psychology. It quantifies the relations between observed inputs and outputs that are connected through a set of latent state variables. State space models are used to investigate the dynamical properties of these latent quantities. These models are especially of interest in the study of emotion dynamics, with the system representing the evolving emotion components of an individual. However, for simultaneous modeling of individual and population differences, a hierarchical extension of the basic state space model is necessary. Therefore, we introduce a Bayesian hierarchical model with random effects for the system parameters. Further, we apply our model to data that were collected using the Oregon adolescent interaction task: 66 normal and 67 depressed adolescents engaged in a conflict interaction with their parents and second-to-second physiological and behavioral measures were obtained. System parameters in normal and depressed adolescents were compared, which led to interesting discussions in the light of findings in recent literature on the links between cardiovascular processes, emotion dynamics and depression. We illustrate that our approach is flexible and general: The model can be applied to any time series for multiple systems (where a system can represent any entity) and moreover, one is free to focus on whatever component of the versatile model. PMID:21516216

  20. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    PubMed

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  1. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  2. Population Dynamics of Southern Pine Beetle in Forest Landscapes

    Treesearch

    Andrew Birt

    2011-01-01

    Southern pine beetle (SPB) is an important pest of Southeastern United States pine forests. Periodic regional outbreaks are characterized by localized areas of tree mortality (infestations) surrounded by areas with little or no damage. Ultimately, this spatiotemporal pattern of tree mortality is driven by the dynamics of SPB populations—more specifically, by rates of...

  3. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  4. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.

    2008-06-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, η Car, ζ Pup, γ2 Velorum and WR 140.

  5. Interactions between Predation and Resources Shape Zooplankton Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Nicolle, Alice; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Brodersen, Jakob; Nilsson, P. Anders; Brönmark, Christer

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the relative importance of predation and resources in population dynamics has a long tradition in ecology, while interactions between them have been studied less intensively. In order to disentangle the effects of predation by juvenile fish, algal resource availability and their interactive effects on zooplankton population dynamics, we conducted an enclosure experiment where zooplankton were exposed to a gradient of predation of roach (Rutilus rutilus) at different algal concentrations. We show that zooplankton populations collapse under high predation pressure irrespective of resource availability, confirming that juvenile fish are able to severely reduce zooplankton prey when occurring in high densities. At lower predation pressure, however, the effect of predation depended on algal resource availability since high algal resource supply buffered against predation. Hence, we suggest that interactions between mass-hatching of fish, and the strong fluctuations in algal resources in spring have the potential to regulate zooplankton population dynamics. In a broader perspective, increasing spring temperatures due to global warming will most likely affect the timing of these processes and have consequences for the spring and summer zooplankton dynamics. PMID:21304980

  6. Equilibrium solutions for microscopic stochastic systems in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lachowicz, Mirosław; Ryabukha, Tatiana

    2013-06-01

    The present paper deals with the problem of existence of equilibrium solutions of equations describing the general population dynamics at the microscopic level of modified Liouville equation (individually--based model) corresponding to a Markov jump process. We show the existence of factorized equilibrium solutions and discuss uniqueness. The conditions guaranteeing uniqueness or non-uniqueness are proposed under the assumption of periodic structures.

  7. Bacterial associations reveal spatial population dynamics in Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes

    PubMed Central

    Buck, Moritz; Nilsson, Louise K. J.; Brunius, Carl; Dabiré, Roch K.; Hopkins, Richard; Terenius, Olle

    2016-01-01

    The intolerable burden of malaria has for too long plagued humanity and the prospect of eradicating malaria is an optimistic, but reachable, target in the 21st century. However, extensive knowledge is needed about the spatial structure of mosquito populations in order to develop effective interventions against malaria transmission. We hypothesized that the microbiota associated with a mosquito reflects acquisition of bacteria in different environments. By analyzing the whole-body bacterial flora of An. gambiae mosquitoes from Burkina Faso by 16 S amplicon sequencing, we found that the different environments gave each mosquito a specific bacterial profile. In addition, the bacterial profiles provided precise and predicting information on the spatial dynamics of the mosquito population as a whole and showed that the mosquitoes formed clear local populations within a meta-population network. We believe that using microbiotas as proxies for population structures will greatly aid improving the performance of vector interventions around the world. PMID:26960555

  8. Stationary stability for evolutionary dynamics in finite populations

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, Marc; Fryer, Dashiell

    2016-08-25

    Here, we demonstrate a vast expansion of the theory of evolutionary stability to finite populations with mutation, connecting the theory of the stationary distribution of the Moran process with the Lyapunov theory of evolutionary stability. We define the notion of stationary stability for the Moran process with mutation and generalizations, as well as a generalized notion of evolutionary stability that includes mutation called an incentive stable state (ISS) candidate. For sufficiently large populations, extrema of the stationary distribution are ISS candidates and we give a family of Lyapunov quantities that are locally minimized at the stationary extrema and at ISS candidates. In various examples, including for the Moran andWright–Fisher processes, we show that the local maxima of the stationary distribution capture the traditionally-defined evolutionarily stable states. The classical stability theory of the replicator dynamic is recovered in the large population limit. Finally we include descriptions of possible extensions to populations of variable size and populations evolving on graphs.

  9. Ecosystem model-based approach for modelling the dynamics of 137Cs transfer to marine plankton populations: application to the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belharet, M.; Estournel, C.; Charmasson, S.

    2015-06-01

    Huge amounts of radionuclides, especially 137Cs, were released into the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) accident that occurred on 11 March 2011, resulting in contamination of the marine biota. In this study we developed a radioecological model to estimate 137Cs concentrations in phytoplankton and zooplankton populations representing the lower levels of the pelagic trophic chain. We coupled this model to a lower trophic level ecosystem model and an ocean circulation model to take into account the site-specific environmental conditions in the area. The different radioecological parameters of the model were estimated by calibration, and a sensitivity analysis to parameter uncertainties was carried out, showing a high sensitivity of the model results, especially to the 137Cs concentration in seawater, to the rates of uptake from water and to the radionuclide assimilation efficiency for zooplankton. The results of the 137Cs concentrations in planktonic populations simulated in this study were then validated through comparison with the some data available in the region after the accident. The model results have shown that the maximum concentrations in plankton after the accident were about two to four orders of magnitude higher than those observed before the accident depending on the distance from FNPP. Finally, the maximum 137Cs absorbed dose rate for phyto- and zooplankton populations was estimated to be about 10-2 μGy h-1, and was, therefore, lower than the 10 μGy h-1 benchmark value defined in the ERICA assessment approach from which a measurable effect on the marine biota can be observed.

  10. Understanding Diabetes Population Dynamics Through Simulation Modeling and Experimentation

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Andrew P.; Homer, Jack B.; Murphy, Dara L.; Essien, Joyce D. K.; Milstein, Bobby; Seville, Donald A.

    2006-01-01

    Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes. PMID:16449587

  11. Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation.

    PubMed

    Jones, Andrew P; Homer, Jack B; Murphy, Dara L; Essien, Joyce D K; Milstein, Bobby; Seville, Donald A

    2006-03-01

    Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.

  12. Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review

    PubMed Central

    Perc, Matjaž; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

    2013-01-01

    Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

  13. Within- and among-population variation in vital rates and population dynamics in a variable environment.

    PubMed

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Jesensˇek, Dusˇan; Garza, John C; Crivelli, Alain J

    2016-10-01

    Understanding the causes of within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics is a central topic in ecology. To understand how within- and among-population variation emerges, we need long-term studies that include episodic events and contrasting environmental conditions, data to characterize individual and shared variation, and statistical models that can tease apart shared and individual contribution to the observed variation. We used long-term tag-recapture data to investigate and estimate within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics of marble trout Salmo marmoratus, an endemic freshwater salmonid with a narrow range. Only ten populations of pure marble trout persist in headwaters of Alpine rivers in western Slovenia. Marble trout populations are also threatened by floods and landslides, which have already caused the extinction of two populations in recent years. We estimated and determined causes of variation in growth, survival, and recruitment both within and among populations, and evaluated trade-offs between them. Specifically, we estimated the responses of these traits to variation in water temperature, density, sex, early life conditions, and extreme events. We found that the effects of population density on traits were mostly limited to the early stages of life and that growth trajectories were established early in life. We found no clear effects of water temperature on vital rates. Population density varied over time, with flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities (>55% decrease in survival with respect to years with no floods) and threatening population persistence. Apart from flood events, variation in population density within streams was largely determined by variation in recruitment, with survival of older fish being relatively constant over time within populations, but substantially different among populations. Marble trout show a fast

  14. Spatial synchronization of vole population dynamics by predatory birds.

    PubMed

    Ims, R A; Andreassen, H P

    2000-11-09

    Northern vole populations exhibit large-scale, spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such cases of population synchrony provide excellent opportunities for distinguishing between local intrinsic and regional extrinsic mechanisms of population regulation. Analyses of large-scale survey data and theoretical modelling have indicated several plausible synchronizing mechanisms. It is difficult, however, to determine the most important one without detailed data on local demographic processes. Here we combine results from two field studies in southeastern Norway--one identifies local demographic mechanisms and landscape-level annual synchrony among 28 enclosed experimental populations and the other examines region-level multi-annual synchrony in open natural populations. Despite fences eliminating predatory mammals and vole dispersal, the growth rates of the experimental populations were synchronized and moreover, perfectly linked with vole abundance in the region. The fates of 481 radio-marked voles showed that bird predation was the synchronizing mechanism. A higher frequency of risky dispersal movements in slowly growing populations appeared to accelerate predation rate. Thus, dispersal may induce a feedback-loop between predation and population growth that enhances synchrony.

  15. Contrasting effects of giant kelp on dynamics of surfperch populations.

    PubMed

    Schmitt, Russell J; Holbrook, Sally J

    1990-10-01

    The effect of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, on the population dynamics of two temperate reef fishes, striped surfperch (Embiotoca lateralis) and black surfperch (E. jacksoni), was examined. Based on an understanding of how particular reef resources influence abundances of the surfperch and of the effect of giant kelp on those resources, we anticipated that Macrocystis would adversely affect populations of striped surfperch but would enhance those of black surfperch. The natural establishment of giant kelp at sites at Santa Cruz Island, California, resulted in the predicted dynamical responses of surfperch. Abundances of striped surfperch declined rapidly when and where dense forests of giant kelp appeared, but showed little change where Macrocystis was continuously absent over the 8 y period of study. Abundances of adult black surperch, which increased following the appearance of giant kelp, were lagged by >1 y because the dynamical response involved enhanced local recruitment. No change in abundance of black surfperch populations was evident at areas without giant kelp.The mechanism by which giant kelp altered the dynamics of the surfperch involved modification of the assemblage of understory algae used by surfperch as foraging microhabitat. Foliose algae (including Gelidium robustum) were much reduced and turf was greatly enhanced following the appearance of Macrocystis; these two benthic substrata are the favored foraging microhabitat for striped surfperch and black surfperch respectively. Populations of both surfperch species tracked temporal changes in the local availability of their favored foraging microhabitat. Thus, while neither species used Macrocystis directly, temporal and spatial variation in giant kelp indirectly influenced the dynamics of these fishes by altering their foraging base. These results indicate that the dynamics of striped surfperch and black surfperch were governed to a large degree by density-dependent consumer

  16. Complex transient dynamics of stage-structured populations in response to environmental changes.

    PubMed

    Massie, Thomas M; Ryabov, Alexei; Blasius, Bernd; Weithoff, Guntram; Gaedke, Ursula

    2013-07-01

    Stage structures of populations can have a profound influence on their dynamics. However, not much is known about the transient dynamics that follow a disturbance in such systems. Here we combined chemostat experiments with dynamical modeling to study the response of the phytoplankton species Chlorella vulgaris to press perturbations. From an initially stable steady state, we altered either the concentration or dilution rate of a growth-limiting resource. This disturbance induced a complex transient response-characterized by the possible onset of oscillations-before population numbers relaxed to a new steady state. Thus, cell numbers could initially change in the opposite direction of the long-term change. We present quantitative indexes to characterize the transients and to show that the dynamic response is dependent on the degree of synchronization among life stages, which itself depends on the state of the population before perturbation. That is, we show how identical future steady states can be approached via different transients depending on the initial population structure. Our experimental results are supported by a size-structured model that accounts for interplay between cell-cycle and population-level processes and that includes resource-dependent variability in cell size. Our results should be relevant to other populations with a stage structure including organisms of higher order.

  17. The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, William A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

    2017-01-01

    Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population’s capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk. PMID:28405386

  18. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii.

    PubMed

    Ahumada, Jorge A; Lapointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D

    2004-11-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

  19. Magnetospheric structure and dynamics: A multisatellite approach

    SciTech Connect

    Hughes, W.J.

    1991-03-20

    This report reviews progress during the first year of a contract to study magnetospheric structure and dynamics. Four areas of scientific investigation are highlighted. Pressure gradients form in the geotail because ions drift preferentially toward the dusk flank. These pressure gradients drive field aligned currents that close in the ionosphere and which provide a natural explanation of the Harang discontinuity when the full electrodynamics are modelled. Observations made during a passage by DE 2 through the dayside cusp at a time when the IMF was directed northwards are consistent with magnetic merging occurring on field line that map to the poleward cusp boundary. The authors infer that tail lobe field lines were merging with magnetosheath field lines at the magnetopause tailward of the external cusp. During the March 1989 magnetic storm, the DMSP F9 spacecraft observed extensive substantial decreases in equatorial ion density in the post-dusk sector. Modelling calculations show that the depletions were caused by unusually large upward flows moving the equatorial F region peak above 850 km. Calculations of ion cyclotron wave group velocities show that they are sensitive to both the hot and cold plasma populations. Calculated group delays agree with their earlier observations.

  20. Mating behavior, population growth, and the operational sex ratio: a periodic two-sex model approach.

    PubMed

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2010-06-01

    We present a new approach to modeling two-sex populations, using periodic, nonlinear two-sex matrix models. The models project the population growth rate, the population structure, and any ratio of interest (e.g., operational sex ratio). The periodic formulation permits inclusion of highly seasonal behavioral events. A periodic product of the seasonal matrices describes annual population dynamics. The model is nonlinear because mating probability depends on the structure of the population. To study how the vital rates influence population growth rate, population structure, and operational sex ratio, we used sensitivity analysis of frequency-dependent nonlinear models. In nonlinear two-sex models the vital rates affect growth rate directly and also indirectly through effects on the population structure. The indirect effects can sometimes overwhelm the direct effects and are revealed only by nonlinear analysis. We find that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to female survival is negative for the emperor penguin, a species with highly seasonal breeding behavior. This result could not occur in linear models because changes in population structure have no effect on per capita reproduction. Our approach is applicable to ecological and evolutionary studies of any species in which males and females interact in a seasonal environment.

  1. Identifying interactions among salmon populations from observed dynamics.

    PubMed

    Fujiwara, Masami

    2008-01-01

    A simple direct correlation analysis of individual counts between different populations often fails to characterize the true nature of population interactions; however, the most common data type available for population studies is count data, and one of the most important objectives in population and community ecology is to identify interactions among populations. Here, I examine the dynamics of the spawning abundance of fall-run chinook salmon spawning within the California Central Valley and the Klamath Basin, California, and the Columbia River Basin, Oregon. I analyzed multiple time series from each watershed using a multivariate time-series technique called maximum autocorrelation factor analysis. This technique was used for finding common underlying trends in escapement abundance within each watershed. These trends were further investigated to identify potential resource-mediated interactions among the three groups of salmon. Each group is affected by multiple trends that are likely to be affected by environmental factors. In addition, some of the trends are coherent with each other, and the differences in population dynamics originate from variations in the relative importance of these trends among the three watershed groups.

  2. Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

    PubMed

    Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

    2010-06-01

    Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

  3. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-01-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies. PMID:26367172

  4. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ''diversity waves'' triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak--species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

  5. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    DOE PAGES

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

  6. Population dynamics of epiphytic orchids in a metapopulation context

    PubMed Central

    Winkler, Manuela; Hülber, Karl; Hietz, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims Populations of many epiphytes show a patchy distribution where clusters of plants growing on individual trees are spatially separated and may thus function as metapopulations. Seed dispersal is necessary to (re)colonize unoccupied habitats, and to transfer seeds from high- to low-competition patches. Increasing dispersal distances, however, reduces local fecundity and the probability that seeds will find a safe site outside the original patch. Thus, there is a conflict between seed survival and colonization. Methods Populations of three epiphytic orchids were monitored over three years in a Mexican humid montane forest and analysed with spatially averaged and with spatially explicit matrix metapopulation models. In the latter, population dynamics at the scale of the subpopulations (epiphytes on individual host trees) are based on detailed stage-structured observations of transition probabilities and trees are connected by a dispersal function. Key Results Population growth rates differed among trees and years. While ignoring these differences, and averaging the population matrices over trees, yields negative population growth, metapopulation models predict stable or growing populations because the trees that support growing subpopulations determine the growth of the metapopulation. Stochastic models which account for the differences among years differed only marginally from deterministic models. Population growth rates were significantly lower, and extinctions of local patches more frequent in models where higher dispersal results in reduced local fecundity compared with hypothetical models where this is not the case. The difference between the two models increased with increasing mean dispersal distance. Though recolonization events increased with dispersal distance, this could not compensate the losses due to reduced local fecundity. Conclusions For epiphytes, metapopulation models are useful to capture processes beyond the level of the single

  7. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

  8. Population Dynamics of a Commercial Sponge in Biscayne Bay, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cropper, W. P.; Lirman, D.; Tosini, S. C.; DiResta, D.; Luo, J.; Wang, J.

    2001-07-01

    The dynamics of glove sponge ( Spongia graminea) population in Biscayne Bay, Florida were investigated using a series of matrix population models, a hydrodynamic model, and a GIS data base. Sponges at Billy's Point, on the eastern margin of Biscayne Bay, were sampled between 1993 and 1995 and resampled in 2000 for model calibration and testing. An iterative procedure was used to fit unmeasured fecundity and a growth parameter by minimizing the 1993 to 2000 simulated differences from the observed year 2000 size class distribution. A density dependent model was found to fit the total population size in 2000 better than the density independent matrix model. Systematic sampling of the bay was used to identify four local populations with sponge densities above 50 ha -1. The three western populations experienced salinity below 25, based on hydrodynamic model outputs for 1995, whereas the eastern Billy's Point population had a stable ocean salinity environment. The hydrodynamic model was used to simulate larval transport between local populations as lagrangian drifting particles. These simulations indicated that the Billy's Point population was likely to be demographically closed.

  9. The population dynamics of an endemic collectible cactus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandujano, María C.; Bravo, Yolotzin; Verhulst, Johannes; Carrillo-Angeles, Israel; Golubov, Jordan

    2015-02-01

    Astrophytum is one of most collected genera in the cactus family. Around the world several species are maintained in collections and yearly, several plants are taken from their natural habitats. Populations of Astorphytum capricorne are found in the northern Chihuahuan desert, Mexico, and as many endemic cactus species, it has a highly restricted habitat. We conducted a demographic study from 2008 to 2010 of the northern populations found at Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. We applied matrix population models, included simulations, life table response experiments and descriptions of the population dynamics to evaluate the current status of the species, and detect key life table stages and demographic processes. Population growth rate decreased in both years and only 4% individual mortality can be attributed to looting, and a massive effort is needed to increase seedling recruitment and reduce adult mortality. The fate of individuals differed between years even having the same annual rainfall mainly in accentuated stasis, retrogression and high mortality in all size classes, which coupled with low seed production, no recruitment and collection of plants are the causes contributing to population decline, and hence, increase the risk in which A. capricorne populations are found. Reintroduction of seedlings and lowering adult mortality are urgently needed to revert the alarming demographic condition of A. capricorne populations.

  10. A population approach to fish monitoring: too much blind trust?

    PubMed

    Payne, Jerry F

    2007-04-01

    In spite of pronouncements on the importance of an ecological or ecosystem approach to environmental issues, even a straightforward request such as the quantification of the effects of contaminants on a fish population can be inexorably difficult. Although no panacea for determining population reductions, biomarkers can be a useful tool for providing guidance on whether and to what extent health effects are occurring in a population. Except for their use in environmental effects monitoring (EEM) programs around oil development sites on the east coast, Canada has been a laggard in the application of biomarkers. Part of this stems from some agencies still continuing to advocate a population approach, a position which has major scientific drawbacks and probably represents too much blind trust.

  11. A mathematical approach to HIV infection dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ida, A.; Oharu, S.; Oharu, Y.

    2007-07-01

    In order to obtain a comprehensive form of mathematical models describing nonlinear phenomena such as HIV infection process and AIDS disease progression, it is efficient to introduce a general class of time-dependent evolution equations in such a way that the associated nonlinear operator is decomposed into the sum of a differential operator and a perturbation which is nonlinear in general and also satisfies no global continuity condition. An attempt is then made to combine the implicit approach (usually adapted for convective diffusion operators) and explicit approach (more suited to treat continuous-type operators representing various physiological interactions), resulting in a semi-implicit product formula. Decomposing the operators in this way and considering their individual properties, it is seen that approximation-solvability of the original model is verified under suitable conditions. Once appropriate terms are formulated to describe treatment by antiretroviral therapy, the time-dependence of the reaction terms appears, and such product formula is useful for generating approximate numerical solutions to the governing equations. With this knowledge, a continuous model for HIV disease progression is formulated and physiological interpretations are provided. The abstract theory is then applied to show existence of unique solutions to the continuous model describing the behavior of the HIV virus in the human body and its reaction to treatment by antiretroviral therapy. The product formula suggests appropriate discrete models describing the dynamics of host pathogen interactions with HIV1 and is applied to perform numerical simulations based on the model of the HIV infection process and disease progression. Finally, the results of our numerical simulations are visualized and it is observed that our results agree with medical and physiological aspects.

  12. A Population Health Management Approach to Oral Health.

    PubMed

    Hummel, Jeff; Phillips, Kathryn E

    2016-03-01

    Clinical outcomes have been shown to be better, and total costs lower, when patients with chronic illness such as diabetes are managed using a population health strategy in a primary care setting that includes structured coordination of care with specialty services. This "population health management approach" offers a promising new vision for addressing oral disease as a chronic illness through a collaborative partnership between primary care teams and dental professionals.

  13. Population dynamics in Er3+-doped fluoride glasses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdanov, V. K.; Booth, D. J.; Gibbs, W. E.; Javorniczky, J. S.; Newman, P. J.; Macfarlane, D. R.

    2001-05-01

    A detailed study of the energy-transfer processes in Er3+: flouride glasses with doping concentrations of 0.2-18 mol % is presented. Fluorescence wave forms for 11 erbium transitions were measured under 802-nm, 1.5-μm, 975-nm, 520-nm, and 403-nm excitation from a high-energy short-pulse source. The analysis of these data provided a physical understanding of the processes responsible for the temporal behavior of the populations of a large number of energy levels. A comprehensive nine-level rate-equation model of the Er3+ population dynamics in these fluoride glasses is developed. The model performs well in predicting the observed fluorescence behavior of the main fluorescing lines under all pumping conditions. The modeling process allowed 14 ion-ion energy-transfer processes that are important for the population dynamics in these fluoride glasses to be identified and their rate constants obtained. Noticeably, the inclusion of seven three-ion processes was found necessary in order to obtain good fits to the experimental fluorescence wave forms. It was also found that some three-ion processes have a significant effect on the population dynamics of the levels even in lower doping concentrations.

  14. Population rate dynamics and multineuron firing patterns in sensory cortex

    PubMed Central

    Okun, Michael; Yger, Pierre; Marguet, Stephan; Gerard-Mercier, Florian; Benucci, Andrea; Katzner, Steffen; Busse, Laura; Carandini, Matteo; Harris, Kenneth D.

    2012-01-01

    Cortical circuits encode sensory stimuli through the firing of neuronal ensembles, and also produce spontaneous population patterns in the absence of sensory drive. This population activity is often characterized experimentally by the distribution of multineuron “words” (binary firing vectors), and a match between spontaneous and evoked word distributions has been suggested to reflect learning of a probabilistic model of the sensory world. We analyzed multineuron word distributions in sensory cortex of anesthetized rats and cats, and found that they are dominated by fluctuations in population firing rate rather than precise interactions between individual units. Furthermore, cortical word distributions change when brain state shifts, and similar behavior is seen in simulated networks with fixed, random connectivity. Our results suggest that similarity or dissimilarity in multineuron word distributions could primarily reflect similarity or dissimilarity in population firing rate dynamics, and not necessarily the precise interactions between neurons that would indicate learning of sensory features. PMID:23197704

  15. Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland.

    PubMed

    Tornberg, Risto; Lindén, Andreas; Byholm, Patrik; Ranta, Esa; Valkama, Jari; Helle, Pekka; Lindén, Harto

    2013-04-01

    Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator-prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986-2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983-2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator-prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1-3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk-grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than

  16. Temporal dynamics of tunneling: Hydrodynamic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dekel, G.; Fleurov, V.; Soffer, A.; Stucchio, C.

    2007-04-01

    We use the hydrodynamic representation of the Gross-Pitaevskii and nonlinear Schrödinger equations in order to analyze the dynamics of macroscopic tunneling processes. We observe a tendency to wave breaking and shock formation during the early stages of the tunneling process. A blip in the density distribution appears on the outskirts of the barrier and under proper conditions it may transform into a bright soliton. Our approach, based on the theory of shock formation in solutions of the Burgers equation, allows us to find the parameters of the ejected blip (or soliton if formed), including the velocity of its propagation. The blip in the density is formed regardless of the value and sign of the nonlinearity parameter. However, a soliton may be formed only if this parameter is negative (attraction) and large enough. A criterion is proposed. An ejection of a soliton is also observed numerically. We demonstrate, theoretically and numerically, controlled formation of a soliton through tunneling. The mass of the ejected soliton is controlled by the initial state.

  17. Analysis of uterine contractions: a dynamical approach.

    PubMed

    Nagarajan, R; Eswaran, H; Wilson, J D; Murphy, P; Lowery, C; Preissl, H

    2003-07-01

    The development of suitable techniques for quantifying mechanical and electrophysiological aspects of uterine contractions has been an active area of research. The uterus is a physiological system consisting of a large number of interacting muscle cells. The activity of these cells evolves with time, a trait characteristic of a dynamical system. While such complex physiological systems are non-linear by their very nature, whether this non-linearity is exhibited in the external recording is far from trivial. Traditional techniques such as spectral analysis have been used in the past, but these techniques implicitly assume that the process generating the contractions is linear and hence may be biased. In this tutorial review, a systematic approach using a hierarchy of surrogate algorithms is used to determine the nature of the process generating the contractions produced during labor. The results reveal that uterine contractions are probably generated by non-linear processes. The contraction segments were obtained through simultaneous recordings of the electrical and magnetic signals corresponding to the electrophysiological activity of the uterus and then analyzed. The electrical activity was recorded by placement of non-invasive electrodes onto the maternal abdomen and magnetic activity was recorded non-invasively using a superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID).

  18. Health policy approaches to population health: the limits of medicalization.

    PubMed

    Lantz, Paula M; Lichtenstein, Richard L; Pollack, Harold A

    2007-01-01

    Because of a strong tendency to "medicalize" health status problems and to assume that their primary solution involves medical care, policymakers often focus on increased financial and geographic access to personal health services in policies aimed at populations that are vulnerable to poor health. This approach has produced real public health gains, but it has neglected key social and economic causes of health vulnerability and disparities. Although access to care is a necessary component of population health, concerted policy action in income security, education, housing, nutrition/food security, and the environment is also critical in efforts to improve health among socially disadvantaged populations.

  19. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  20. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  1. Changes in population dynamics in mutualistic versus pathogenic viruses.

    PubMed

    Roossinck, Marilyn J

    2011-01-01

    Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis) have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  2. Effects of extreme environmental changes on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Falco, I.; Della Cioppa, A.; Tarantino, E.

    2006-09-01

    The effects of periodic environmental fluctuations on the adaptive behavior and on the survival chance of a population of individuals are investigated as a function of both the genotypes carried, i.e., haploid or diploid. Only extreme and exogenous changes have been taken into account in order not to complicate the model under investigation. Moreover, different rates of both environmental changes and mutation have been considered. The analysis has been performed by discussing the evolutionary dynamics exhibited by the population in terms of adaptation, density and, finally, survival probability.

  3. Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Keeffe, Kevin P.; Strogatz, Steven H.

    2016-06-01

    We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.

  4. Optimal control methods for controlling bacterial populations with persister dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cogan, N. G.

    2016-06-01

    Bacterial tolerance to antibiotics is a well-known phenomena; however, only recent studies of bacterial biofilms have shown how multifaceted tolerance really is. By joining into a structured community and offering shared protection and gene transfer, bacterial populations can protect themselves genotypically, phenotypically and physically. In this study, we collect a line of research that focuses on phenotypic (or plastic) tolerance. The dynamics of persister formation are becoming better understood, even though there are major questions that remain. The thrust of our results indicate that even without detailed description of the biological mechanisms, theoretical studies can offer strategies that can eradicate bacterial populations with existing drugs.

  5. Dynamical resource nexus assessments: from accounting to sustainability approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salmoral, Gloria; Yan, Xiaoyu

    2017-04-01

    Continued economic development and population growth result in increasing pressures on natural resources, from local to international levels, for meeting societal demands on water, energy and food. To date there are a few tools that link models to identify the relationships and to account for flows of water, energy and food. However, these tools in general can offer only a static view often at national level and with annual temporal resolution. Moreover, they can only account flows but cannot consider the required amounts and conditions of the natural capital that supplies and maintains these flows. With the emerging nexus thinking, our research is currently focused on promoting dynamical environmental analyses beyond the conventional silo mentalities. Our study aims to show new advancements in existing tools (e.g., dynamical life cycle assessment) and develop novel environmental indicators relevant for the resource nexus assessment. We aim to provide a step forward when sustainability conditions and resilience thresholds are aligned with flows under production (e.g., food, water and energy), process level under analysis (e.g., local production, transport, manufacturing, final consumption, reuse, disposal) and existing biophysical local conditions. This approach would help to embrace and better characterise the spatiotemporal dynamics, complexity and existing links between and within the natural and societal systems, which are crucial to evaluate and promote more environmentally sustainable economic activities.

  6. A practical approach to detect ancestral haplotypes in livestock populations.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Molano, Enrique; Tsiokos, Dimitrios; Chatziplis, Dimitrios; Jorjani, Hossein; Degano, Lorenzo; Diaz, Clara; Rossoni, Attilio; Schwarzenbacher, Hermann; Seefried, Franz; Varona, Luis; Vicario, Daniele; Nicolazzi, Ezequiel L; Banos, Georgios

    2016-06-24

    The effects of different evolutionary forces are expected to lead to the conservation, over many generations, of particular genomic regions (haplotypes) due to the development of linkage disequilibrium (LD). The detection and identification of early (ancestral) haplotypes can be used to clarify the evolutionary dynamics of different populations as well as identify selection signatures and genomic regions of interest to be used both in conservation and breeding programs. The aims of this study were to develop a simple procedure to identify ancestral haplotypes segregating across several generations both within and between populations with genetic links based on whole-genome scanning. This procedure was tested with simulated and then applied to real data from different genotyped populations of Spanish, Fleckvieh, Simmental and Brown-Swiss cattle. The identification of ancestral haplotypes has shown coincident patterns of selection across different breeds, allowing the detection of common regions of interest on different bovine chromosomes and mirroring the evolutionary dynamics of the studied populations. These regions, mainly located on chromosomes BTA5, BTA6, BTA7 and BTA21 are related with certain animal traits such as coat colour and milk protein and fat content. In agreement with previous studies, the detection of ancestral haplotypes provides useful information for the development and comparison of breeding and conservation programs both through the identification of selection signatures and other regions of interest, and as indicator of the general genetic status of the populations.

  7. Ecological change, range fluctuations and population dynamics during the Pleistocene.

    PubMed

    Hofreiter, Michael; Stewart, John

    2009-07-28

    Apart from the current human-induced climate change, the Holocene is notable for its stable climate. In contrast, the preceding age, the Pleistocene, was a time of intensive climatic fluctuations, with temperature changes of up to 15 degrees C occurring within a few decades. These climatic changes have substantially influenced both animal and plant populations. Until recently, the prevailing opinion about the effect of these climatic fluctuations on species in Europe was that populations survived glacial maxima in southern refugia and that populations died out outside these refugia. However, some of the latest studies of modern population genetics, the fossil record and especially ancient DNA reveal a more complex picture. There is now strong evidence for additional local northern refugia for a large number of species, including both plants and animals. Furthermore, population genetic analyses using ancient DNA have shown that genetic diversity and its geographical structure changed more often and in more unpredictable ways during the Pleistocene than had been inferred. Taken together, the Pleistocene is now seen as an extremely dynamic era, with rapid and large climatic fluctuations and correspondingly variable ecology. These changes were accompanied by similarly fast and sometimes dramatic changes in population size and extensive gene flow mediated by population movements. Thus, the Pleistocene is an excellent model case for the effects of rapid climate change, as we experience at the moment, on the ecology of plants and animals.

  8. [Analysis on age structure and dynamics of Kindonia uniflora populations].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wenhui; Li, Jingxia; Li, Hong; Liu, Xiangjun

    2004-04-01

    Kindonia uniflora is a perennial clone herbaceous plant, and also, a native endangered plant in China. This paper studied its age structure, life table and survivorship curve in different habitats in Taibai mountain area. The results indicated that the age structure and dynamics of K. uniflora populations in the Betula utilis forest at altitude 2500-2700 m, in the Abies fargesii forest at altitude 2700-2900 m, and in the Larix chinensis forest at altitude 2900-3100 m had the similar pattern and developing tendency. The number of younger ramets at 1-2 years old or older than 5 years was less, and the number of ramets at 3-5 years old was the highest in the age structures. The negative values of dx (dead number), qx (mortality rate) and Kx (Killing rate) in the life table showed the increasing rate of the population sizes during the age stage. The survivorship curve of K. uniflora populations in different habitats belonged to Deevey C after 3-5 years old. The mortality rate of populations during 5-10 years stage was higher, and was stable after 10 years old. As for the characters of asexual propagation and clone growth, the rhizomes of the populations were in humus of soil, and developed and expanded as guerilla line style. During growth season, only one leaf grew above ground at every inter-node, and the population growth and development were rarely influenced by external factors. The forest communities, such as Betula utilis, Abies fargesii and Larix chinensis forest, in which K. uniflora populations lived, were at middle or higher mountain, where there were rarely disturbance from human being. Therefore, the habitats for K. uniflora populations to live were relatively stable. As the altitude increased, the disturbances from human being became less, the density of K. uniflora populations increased, the life cycle expanded, the peak of population death delayed, and the population living strategy changed to adapt to the habitats. K. uniflora populations preferred to

  9. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    PubMed

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  10. How should environmental stress affect the population dynamics of disease?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Holt, Robert D.

    2003-01-01

    We modelled how stress affects the population dynamics of infectious disease. We were specifically concerned with stress that increased susceptibility of uninfected hosts when exposed to infection. If such stresses also reduced resources, fecundity and/or survivorship, there was a reduction in the host carrying capacity. This lowered the contact between infected and uninfected hosts, thereby decreasing transmission. In addition, stress that increased parasite mortality decreased disease. The opposing effects of stress on disease dynamics made it difficult to predict the response of disease to environmental stress. We found analytical solutions with negative, positive, convex and concave associations between disease and stress. Numerical simulations with randomly generated parameter values suggested that the impact of host-specific diseases generally declined with stress while the impact of non-specific (or open) diseases increased with stress. These results help clarify predictions about the interaction between environmental stress and disease in natural populations.

  11. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  12. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  13. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

    PubMed Central

    Sabes, Philip N.

    2015-01-01

    Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

  14. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Three Potato Pests in Washington State.

    PubMed

    D'Auria, Elizabeth M; Wohleb, Carrie H; Waters, Timothy D; Crowder, David W

    2016-08-01

    Pest phenology models allow producers to anticipate pest outbreaks and deploy integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Phenology models are particularly useful for cropping systems with multiple economically damaging pests throughout a season. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops of Washington State, USA, are attacked by many insect pests including the potato tuberworm (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller), the beet leafhopper (Circulifer tenellus Baker), and the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae Sulzer). Each of these pests directly damages potato foliage or tubers; C. tenellus and M. persicae also transmit pathogens that can drastically reduce potato yields. We monitored the seasonal population dynamics of these pests by conducting weekly sampling on a network of commercial farms from 2007 to 2014. Using these data, we developed phenology models to characterize the seasonal population dynamics of each pest based on accumulated degree-days (DD). All three pests exhibited consistent population dynamics across seasons that were mediated by temperature. Of the three pests, C. tenellus was generally the first detected in potato crops, with 90% of adults captured by 936 DD. In contrast, populations of P. operculella and M. persicae built up more slowly over the course of the season, with 90% cumulative catch by 1,590 and 2,634 DD, respectively. Understanding these seasonal patterns could help potato producers plan their IPM strategies while allowing them to move away from calendar-based applications of insecticides. More broadly, our results show how long-term monitoring studies that explore dynamics of multiple pest species can aid in developing IPM strategies in crop systems. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. A dynamic programming approach to adaptive fractionation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramakrishnan, Jagdish; Craft, David; Bortfeld, Thomas; Tsitsiklis, John N.

    2012-03-01

    We conduct a theoretical study of various solution methods for the adaptive fractionation problem. The two messages of this paper are as follows: (i) dynamic programming (DP) is a useful framework for adaptive radiation therapy, particularly adaptive fractionation, because it allows us to assess how close to optimal different methods are, and (ii) heuristic methods proposed in this paper are near-optimal, and therefore, can be used to evaluate the best possible benefit of using an adaptive fraction size. The essence of adaptive fractionation is to increase the fraction size when the tumor and organ-at-risk (OAR) are far apart (a ‘favorable’ anatomy) and to decrease the fraction size when they are close together. Given that a fixed prescribed dose must be delivered to the tumor over the course of the treatment, such an approach results in a lower cumulative dose to the OAR when compared to that resulting from standard fractionation. We first establish a benchmark by using the DP algorithm to solve the problem exactly. In this case, we characterize the structure of an optimal policy, which provides guidance for our choice of heuristics. We develop two intuitive, numerically near-optimal heuristic policies, which could be used for more complex, high-dimensional problems. Furthermore, one of the heuristics requires only a statistic of the motion probability distribution, making it a reasonable method for use in a realistic setting. Numerically, we find that the amount of decrease in dose to the OAR can vary significantly (5-85%) depending on the amount of motion in the anatomy, the number of fractions and the range of fraction sizes allowed. In general, the decrease in dose to the OAR is more pronounced when: (i) we have a high probability of large tumor-OAR distances, (ii) we use many fractions (as in a hyper-fractionated setting) and (iii) we allow large daily fraction size deviations.

  16. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  17. Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households

    PubMed Central

    Ross, Joshua V.; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt J.

    2010-01-01

    Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks. PMID:20305791

  18. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Morales, Juan M.; Moorcroft, Paul R.; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Kie, John G.; Powell, Roger A.; Merrill, Evelyn H.; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2010-01-01

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through ‘spatially informed’ movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission–fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction. PMID:20566505

  19. Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Thompson, P M; Ollason, J C

    2001-09-27

    Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates, and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability. The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton, but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top predators. Here we show by analysis of data from a 50-year study of the fulmar that two different indices of ocean climate variation may have lagged effects on population dynamics in this procellariiform seabird. Annual variability in breeding performance is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas cohort differences in recruitment are related to temperature changes in the summer growing season in the year of birth. Because fulmars exhibit delayed reproduction, there is a 5-year lag in the population's response to these effects of environmental change. These data show how interactions between different climatic factors result in complex dynamics, and that the effects of climate change may take many years to become apparent in long-lived marine top predators.

  20. VCGDB: a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The data released by the 1000 Genomes Project contain an increasing number of genome sequences from different nations and populations with a large number of genetic variations. As a result, the focus of human genome studies is changing from single and static to complex and dynamic. The currently available human reference genome (GRCh37) is based on sequencing data from 13 anonymous Caucasian volunteers, which might limit the scope of genomics, transcriptomics, epigenetics, and genome wide association studies. Description We used the massive amount of sequencing data published by the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium to construct the Virtual Chinese Genome Database (VCGDB), a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population based on the whole genome sequencing data of 194 individuals. VCGDB provides dynamic genomic information, which contains 35 million single nucleotide variations (SNVs), 0.5 million insertions/deletions (indels), and 29 million rare variations, together with genomic annotation information. VCGDB also provides a highly interactive user-friendly virtual Chinese genome browser (VCGBrowser) with functions like seamless zooming and real-time searching. In addition, we have established three population-specific consensus Chinese reference genomes that are compatible with mainstream alignment software. Conclusions VCGDB offers a feasible strategy for processing big data to keep pace with the biological data explosion by providing a robust resource for genomics studies; in particular, studies aimed at finding regions of the genome associated with diseases. PMID:24708222

  1. IMF shape constraints from stellar populations and dynamics from CALIFA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyubenova, M.; Martín-Navarro, I.; van de Ven, G.; Falcón-Barroso, J.; Galbany, L.; Gallazzi, A.; García-Benito, R.; González Delgado, R.; Husemann, B.; La Barbera, F.; Marino, R. A.; Mast, D.; Mendez-Abreu, J.; Peletier, R. F. P.; Sánchez-Blázquez, P.; Sánchez, S. F.; Trager, S. C.; van den Bosch, R. C. E.; Vazdekis, A.; Walcher, C. J.; Zhu, L.; Zibetti, S.; Ziegler, B.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.; CALIFA Collaboration

    2016-12-01

    In this Paper, we describe how we use stellar dynamics information to constrain the shape of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) in a sample of 27 early-type galaxies from the CALIFA survey. We obtain dynamical and stellar mass-to-light ratios, Υdyn and Υ*, over a homogenous aperture of 0.5 Re. We use the constraint Υdyn≥Υ* to test two IMF shapes within the framework of the extended MILES stellar population models. We rule out a single power-law IMF shape for 75 per cent of the galaxies in our sample. Conversely, we find that a double power-law IMF shape with a varying high-mass end slope is compatible (within 1σ) with 95 per cent of the galaxies. We also show that dynamical and stellar IMF mismatch factors give consistent results for the systematic variation of the IMF in these galaxies.

  2. Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.; Cosner, Chris; Obaza, Adam; Jopp, Fred

    2010-01-01

    Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the reaction-diffusion mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first--the 'refuge mechanism--hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the 'dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism' is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.

  3. Linking environmental variability to population and community dynamics: Chapter 7

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pantel, Jelena H.; Pendleton, Daniel E.; Walters, Annika W.; Rogers, Lauren A.

    2014-01-01

    Linking population and community responses to environmental variability lies at the heart of ecology, yet methodological approaches vary and existence of broad patterns spanning taxonomic groups remains unclear. We review the characteristics of environmental and biological variability. Classic approaches to link environmental variability to population and community variability are discussed as are the importance of biotic factors such as life history and community interactions. In addition to classic approaches, newer techniques such as information theory and artificial neural networks are reviewed. The establishment and expansion of observing networks will provide new long-term ecological time-series data, and with it, opportunities to incorporate environmental variability into research. This review can help guide future research in the field of ecological and environmental variability.

  4. Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

    2005-01-01

    A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

  5. Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berti, Stefano; Cencini, Massimo; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

  6. Populations dynamics of Australorbis glabratus in Puerto Rico

    PubMed Central

    Ritchie, Lawrence S.; Radke, Myron G.; Ferguson, Frederick F.

    1962-01-01

    This report on the population dynamics of Australorbis glabratus in Puerto Rico is based on observations made over about two years at 50 collecting-sites in a representative range of snail habitats. In some places a marked predominance of Tropicorbis was noted. No continuous or seasonal propagation of Australorbis was apparent. Dense populations seldom prevailed for more than a few months, and in most places very low population levels occurred at irregular intervals, and colony decimations were fairly common. A variety of pressures is exerted on Australorbis in Puerto Rico by a multiplicity of natural factors; detailed knowledge of this snail's natural history in the field is necessary for effective bilharziasis control and for a full understanding of the regional epidemiology of this disease. PMID:14492504

  7. Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations

    PubMed Central

    Santos, F. C.; Pacheco, J. M.; Lenaerts, Tom

    2006-01-01

    Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations. PMID:16484371

  8. Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.

    PubMed

    Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom

    2006-02-28

    Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations.

  9. Spatio-temporal transitions in the dynamics of bacterial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Anna; Lincoln, Bryan; Mann, Bernward; Torres, Gelsy; Kas, Josef; Swinney, Harry

    2001-03-01

    We experimentally investigate the population dynamics of a strain of E. coli bacteria living under spatially inhomogeneous growth conditions. A localized perturbation that moves with a well-defined drift velocity is imposed on the system. A reaction-diffusion model of this situation^1 predicts that an abrupt transition between spatial localization and extinction of the colony occurs for a fixed average growth rate when the drift velocity exceeds a critical value. Also, a transition between localized and delocalized populations is predicted to occur at a fixed drift velocity when the spatially averaged growth rate is varied. We create a spatially localized perturbation with UV light and vary the strength and drift velocity of the perturbation to investigate the existence of the different bacterial population distributions and the transitions between them. Numerical simulations of a 250 mm by 20 mm system guide our experiments. ^1K. A. Dahmen, D. R. Nelson, N. M. Shnerb, Jour. Math. Bio., 41 1 (2000).

  10. Approaches for Resolving Dynamic IP Addressing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foo, Schubert; Hui, Siu Cheung; Yip, See Wai; He, Yulan

    1997-01-01

    A problem with dynamic Internet protocol (IP) addressing arises when the Internet connection is through an Internet provider since the IP address is allocated only at connection time. This article examines a number of online and offline methods for resolving the problem. Suggests dynamic domain name system (DNS) and directory service look-up are…

  11. Approaches for Resolving Dynamic IP Addressing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foo, Schubert; Hui, Siu Cheung; Yip, See Wai; He, Yulan

    1997-01-01

    A problem with dynamic Internet protocol (IP) addressing arises when the Internet connection is through an Internet provider since the IP address is allocated only at connection time. This article examines a number of online and offline methods for resolving the problem. Suggests dynamic domain name system (DNS) and directory service look-up are…

  12. A First Approach to Filament Dynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silva, P. E. S.; de Abreu, F. Vistulo; Simoes, R.; Dias, R. G.

    2010-01-01

    Modelling elastic filament dynamics is a topic of high interest due to the wide range of applications. However, it has reached a high level of complexity in the literature, making it unaccessible to a beginner. In this paper we explain the main steps involved in the computational modelling of the dynamics of an elastic filament. We first derive…

  13. A First Approach to Filament Dynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silva, P. E. S.; de Abreu, F. Vistulo; Simoes, R.; Dias, R. G.

    2010-01-01

    Modelling elastic filament dynamics is a topic of high interest due to the wide range of applications. However, it has reached a high level of complexity in the literature, making it unaccessible to a beginner. In this paper we explain the main steps involved in the computational modelling of the dynamics of an elastic filament. We first derive…

  14. Dynamics of a combined medea-underdominant population transformation system

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Transgenic constructs intended to be stably established at high frequencies in wild populations have been demonstrated to “drive” from low frequencies in experimental insect populations. Linking such population transformation constructs to genes which render them unable to transmit pathogens could eventually be used to stop the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue. Results Generally, population transformation constructs with only a single transgenic drive mechanism have been envisioned. Using a theoretical modelling approach we describe the predicted properties of a construct combining autosomal Medea and underdominant population transformation systems. We show that when combined they can exhibit synergistic properties which in broad circumstances surpass those of the single systems. Conclusion With combined systems, intentional population transformation and its reversal can be achieved readily. Combined constructs also enhance the capacity to geographically restrict transgenic constructs to targeted populations. It is anticipated that these properties are likely to be of particular value in attracting regulatory approval and public acceptance of this novel technology. PMID:24884575

  15. Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

  16. Environmental influence on population dynamics of the bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corte, Guilherme Nascimento; Coleman, Ross A.; Amaral, A. Cecília Z.

    2017-03-01

    Understanding how species respond to the environment in terms of population attributes (e.g. abundance, growth, mortality, fecundity, and productivity) is essential to protect ecologically and economically important species. Nevertheless, responses of macrobenthic populations to environmental features are overlooked due to the need of consecutive samplings and time-consuming measurements. We examined the population dynamics of the filter-feeding bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana on a tidal flat over the course of one year to investigate the hypothesis that, as accepted for macrobenthic communities, populations inhabiting environments with low hydrodynamic conditions such as tidal flat should have higher attributes than populations inhabiting more energetic habitats (i.e. areas more influenced by wave energy such as reflective and intermediate beaches). This would be expected because the harsh conditions of more energetic habitats force organisms to divert more energy towards maintenance, resulting in lower population attributes. We found that A. brasiliana showed moderate growth and secondary production at the study area. Moreover the recruitment period was restricted to a few months. A comparison with previous studies showed that, contrary to expected, A. brasiliana populations from areas with low hydrodynamic conditions have lower abundance, growth, recruitment and turnover rate. It is likely that morphodynamic characteristics recorded in these environments, such as larger periods of air exposure and lower water circulation, may affect food conditions for filter-feeding species and increase competition. In addition, these characteristics may negatively affect macrobenthic species by enhancing eutrophication processes and anoxia. Overall, our results suggest that models accepted and applied at the macrobenthic community level might not be directly extended to A. brasiliana populations.

  17. Population perception of surgical approach in minimally invasive surgery

    PubMed Central

    Inoue, Shogo; Kajiwara, Mitsuru; Teishima, Jun; Matsubara, Akio

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The aim of this study was to better understand the impact that public opinion might have on surgical approaches in urologic minimally invasive surgery (MIS). Methods: We collected surveys from 400 participants, including the general population (n = 220) and paramedical staff (n = 180). Participants were anonymous. The survey included 16 questions on the characteristics and preference for the surgical approach if a urologic MIS were performed on them. Results: The responders preferred the transumbilical approach (57.0%) to the subcostal approach (43.0%). In particular, the preference for a transumbilical approach was significantly higher in females (65.1% vs. 49.3%, p = 0.0014). Similarly, when participants were divided into two groups (<50 years and ≥50 years), the preference for the transumbilical approach was significantly higher in the younger group (60.8% vs. 48.0%, p = 0.0187). Logistic regression analysis revealed that preference for this approach was about 2 times more likely to rise in the females (p = 0.032). Conclusions: Preference for the transumbilical approach was significantly higher young female respondents. This patient subset most values the cosmetic benefits of transumbilical approach in urologic MIS. PMID:25624959

  18. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

    PubMed Central

    Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

  19. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

    PubMed

    Vahia, Mayank N; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era. We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

  20. Population, environment dynamics, poverty and quality of life in China.

    PubMed

    Gu, B

    1996-12-01

    This article focuses on the growth in poverty, environmental concerns, and Chinese government efforts to eliminate poverty with integrated programs. China had 1.2 billion people in February 1995, or 20% of total world population on 7% of the world's arable land. The rate of natural increase was 1.1% in 1996. China's population could double to 2.4 billion by 2060. About 14 million people are added every year. China has about 300 million women of childbearing age. Even with 1 child per woman, population would grow by 300 million. 18 provinces have population growth over the national average of 1.49%. Many of these provinces are also provinces with high population density, high poverty ratios, and higher than 2 birth orders. The highest growth is in western China. Poor households have a lower quality of life, more disabled members, high rates of endemic disease, and illiteracy. Among the very poor without adequate food or clothing, environmental protection is a meaningless concept. Poverty alleviation strategies have shifted from relief to economic development. State support combined with local resources in a pooling approach pays for poverty alleviation programs. The central government's share will increase until the year 2000. The number of poor was 80 million in 1994 (9% of total population) living in 592 poor counties in remote and mountainous areas. The number of poor was reduced to 65 million in 1996. An integrated approach of family planning and poverty alleviation operates in Jinzhai County of Anhui province. China is determined to reorient to a "service-oriented, client- centered, woman-sensitive, and rural-emphasized approach."

  1. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish.

    PubMed

    Huijbers, Chantal M; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Debrot, Adolphe O; Jongejans, Eelke

    2013-08-01

    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived differently by animals belonging to different life stages. In this study, we used a dual approach to understand how stage-structured habitat use and dispersal ability of adults shape the population of a marine fish species. Our study area and focal species provided us with the unique opportunity to study a closed island population. A spatial simulation model was used to estimate dispersal distances along a coral reef that surrounds the island, while contributions of different nursery bays were determined based on otolith stable isotope signatures of adult reef fish. The model showed that adult dispersal away from reef areas near nursery bays is limited. The results further show that different bays contributed unequally to the adult population on the coral reef, with productivity of juveniles in bay nursery habitat determining the degree of mixing among local populations on the reef and with one highly productive area contributing most to the island's reef fish population. The contribution of the coral reef as a nursery habitat was minimal, even though it had a much larger surface area. These findings indicate that the geographic distribution of nursery areas and their productivity are important drivers for the spatial distribution patterns of adults on coral reefs. We suggest that limited dispersal of adults on reefs can lead to a source-sink structure in the adult stage, where reefs close to nurseries replenish more isolated reef areas. Understanding these spatial population dynamics of the demersal phase of marine animals is of major importance for the design and placement of marine reserves, as nursery areas contribute differently to maintain adult populations.

  2. Subvisible cirrus clouds - a dynamical system approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spreitzer, Elisa Johanna; Patrik Marschalik, Manuel; Spichtinger, Peter

    2017-06-01

    Ice clouds, so-called cirrus clouds, occur very frequently in the tropopause region. A special class are subvisible cirrus clouds with an optical depth lower than 0.03, associated with very low ice crystal number concentrations. The dominant pathway for the formation of these clouds is not known well. It is often assumed that heterogeneous nucleation on solid aerosol particles is the preferred mechanism although homogeneous freezing of aqueous solution droplets might be possible, since these clouds occur in the low-temperature regime T < 235 K. For investigating subvisible cirrus clouds as formed by homogeneous freezing we develop a reduced cloud model from first principles, which is close enough to complex models but is also simple enough for mathematical analysis. The model consists of a three-dimensional set of ordinary differential equations, and includes the relevant processes as ice nucleation, diffusional growth and sedimentation. We study the formation and evolution of subvisible cirrus clouds in the low-temperature regime as driven by slow vertical updraughts (0 < w ≤ 0. 05 m s-1). The model is integrated numerically and also investigated by means of theory of dynamical systems. We found two qualitatively different states for the long-term behaviour of subvisible cirrus clouds. The first state is a stable focus; i.e. the solution of the differential equations performs damped oscillations and asymptotically reaches a constant value as an equilibrium state. The second state is a limit cycle in phase space; i.e. the solution asymptotically approaches a one-dimensional attractor with purely oscillatory behaviour. The transition between the states is characterised by a Hopf bifurcation and is determined by two parameters - vertical updraught velocity and temperature. In both cases, the properties of the simulated clouds agree reasonably well with simulations from a more detailed model, with former analytical studies, and with observations of subvisible cirrus

  3. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Yang; Lee, Harry F.; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

    2017-01-01

    It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368–1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China. PMID:28792976

  4. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

    2017-01-01

    It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

  5. [On the relation between encounter rate and population density: Are classical models of population dynamics justified?].

    PubMed

    Nedorezov, L V

    2015-01-01

    A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals.

  6. Chimera states in population dynamics: Networks with fragmented and hierarchical connectivities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hizanidis, Johanne; Panagakou, Evangelia; Omelchenko, Iryna; Schöll, Eckehard; Hövel, Philipp; Provata, Astero

    2015-07-01

    We study numerically the development of chimera states in networks of nonlocally coupled oscillators whose limit cycles emerge from a Hopf bifurcation. This dynamical system is inspired from population dynamics and consists of three interacting species in cyclic reactions. The complexity of the dynamics arises from the presence of a limit cycle and four fixed points. When the bifurcation parameter increases away from the Hopf bifurcation the trajectory approaches the heteroclinic invariant manifolds of the fixed points producing spikes, followed by long resting periods. We observe chimera states in this spiking regime as a coexistence of coherence (synchronization) and incoherence (desynchronization) in a one-dimensional ring with nonlocal coupling and demonstrate that their multiplicity depends on both the system and the coupling parameters. We also show that hierarchical (fractal) coupling topologies induce traveling multichimera states. The speed of motion of the coherent and incoherent parts along the ring is computed through the Fourier spectra of the corresponding dynamics.

  7. Chimera states in population dynamics: Networks with fragmented and hierarchical connectivities.

    PubMed

    Hizanidis, Johanne; Panagakou, Evangelia; Omelchenko, Iryna; Schöll, Eckehard; Hövel, Philipp; Provata, Astero

    2015-07-01

    We study numerically the development of chimera states in networks of nonlocally coupled oscillators whose limit cycles emerge from a Hopf bifurcation. This dynamical system is inspired from population dynamics and consists of three interacting species in cyclic reactions. The complexity of the dynamics arises from the presence of a limit cycle and four fixed points. When the bifurcation parameter increases away from the Hopf bifurcation the trajectory approaches the heteroclinic invariant manifolds of the fixed points producing spikes, followed by long resting periods. We observe chimera states in this spiking regime as a coexistence of coherence (synchronization) and incoherence (desynchronization) in a one-dimensional ring with nonlocal coupling and demonstrate that their multiplicity depends on both the system and the coupling parameters. We also show that hierarchical (fractal) coupling topologies induce traveling multichimera states. The speed of motion of the coherent and incoherent parts along the ring is computed through the Fourier spectra of the corresponding dynamics.

  8. Photographic mark-recapture analysis of local dynamics within an open population of dolphins.

    PubMed

    Fearnbach, H; Durban, J; Parsons, K; Claridge, D

    2012-07-01

    Identifying demographic changes is important for understanding population dynamics. However, this requires long-term studies of definable populations of distinct individuals, which can be particularly challenging when studying mobile cetaceans in the marine environment. We collected photo-identification data from 19 years (1992-2010) to assess the dynamics of a population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) restricted to the shallow (<7 m) waters of Little Bahama Bank, northern Bahamas. This population was known to range beyond our study area, so we adopted a Bayesian mixture modeling approach to mark-recapture to identify clusters of individuals that used the area to different extents, and we specifically estimated trends in survival, recruitment, and abundance of a "resident" population with high probabilities of identification. There was a high probability (p= 0.97) of a long-term decrease in the size of this resident population from a maximum of 47 dolphins (95% highest posterior density intervals, HPDI = 29-61) in 1996 to a minimum of just 24 dolphins (95% HPDI = 14-37) in 2009, a decline of 49% (95% HPDI = approximately 5% to approximately 75%). This was driven by low per capita recruitment (average approximately 0.02) that could not compensate for relatively low apparent survival rates (average approximately 0.94). Notably, there was a significant increase in apparent mortality (approximately 5 apparent mortalities vs. approximately 2 on average) in 1999 when two intense hurricanes passed over the study area, with a high probability (p = 0.83) of a drop below the average survival probability (approximately 0.91 in 1999; approximately 0.94, on average). As such, our mark-recapture approach enabled us to make useful inference about local dynamics within an open population of bottlenose dolphins; this should be applicable to other studies challenged by sampling highly mobile individuals with heterogeneous space use.

  9. Insider Threat Mitigation Project: A Dynamic Network Approach (Poster)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-23

    OCT 2014 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Insider Threat Mitigation Project: A Dynamic Network Approach 5a...Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Insider Threat Mitigation Project A Dynamic Network Approach Approach: • Semi-automated coding...to- external communication • Remove suspected distribution lists • Identify “normal behavior” using Enron • Develop pattern for “ insiders ” in

  10. Stationary stability for evolutionary dynamics in finite populations

    DOE PAGES

    Harper, Marc; Fryer, Dashiell

    2016-08-25

    Here, we demonstrate a vast expansion of the theory of evolutionary stability to finite populations with mutation, connecting the theory of the stationary distribution of the Moran process with the Lyapunov theory of evolutionary stability. We define the notion of stationary stability for the Moran process with mutation and generalizations, as well as a generalized notion of evolutionary stability that includes mutation called an incentive stable state (ISS) candidate. For sufficiently large populations, extrema of the stationary distribution are ISS candidates and we give a family of Lyapunov quantities that are locally minimized at the stationary extrema and at ISSmore » candidates. In various examples, including for the Moran andWright–Fisher processes, we show that the local maxima of the stationary distribution capture the traditionally-defined evolutionarily stable states. The classical stability theory of the replicator dynamic is recovered in the large population limit. Finally we include descriptions of possible extensions to populations of variable size and populations evolving on graphs.« less

  11. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    PubMed Central

    Balasubramanian, Vijay

    2017-01-01

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations exhibit damped oscillations, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a “winner-take-all” scenario, leading to a specialized spacer distribution. Bacteria can interpolate between these limiting behaviors by actively tuning their overall acquisition probability. PMID:28414716

  12. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradde, Serena; Vucelja, Marija; Tesileanu, Tiberiu; Balasubramanian, Vijay

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations oscillate, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a ``winner-take-all'' scenario, leading to a specialized spacer distribution. Bacteria can interpolate between these limiting behaviors by actively tuning their overall acquisition rate.

  13. Spatial scaling of avian population dynamics: population abundance, growth rate, and variability.

    PubMed

    Jones, Jason; Doran, Patrick J; Holmes, Richard T

    2007-10-01

    Synchrony in population fluctuations has been identified as an important component of population dynamics. In a previous study, we determined that local-scale (<15-km) spatial synchrony of bird populations in New England was correlated with synchronous fluctuations in lepidopteran larvae abundance and with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we address five questions that extend the scope of our earlier study using North American Breeding Bird Survey data. First, do bird populations in eastern North America exhibit spatial synchrony in abundances at scales beyond those we have documented previously? Second, does spatial synchrony depend on what population metric is analyzed (e.g., abundance, growth rate, or variability)? Third, is there geographic concordance in where species exhibit synchrony? Fourth, for those species that exhibit significant geographic concordance, are there landscape and habitat variables that contribute to the observed patterns? Fifth, is spatial synchrony affected by a species' life history traits? Significant spatial synchrony was common and its magnitude was dependent on the population metric analyzed. Twenty-four of 29 species examined exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance: mean local autocorrelation (rho)= 0.15; mean spatial extent (mean distance where rho=0) = 420.7 km. Five of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in annual population growth rate (mean local autocorrelation = 0.06, mean distance = 457.8 km). Ten of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance variability (mean local autocorrelation = 0.49, mean distance = 413.8 km). Analyses of landscape structure indicated that habitat variables were infrequent contributors to spatial synchrony. Likewise, we detected no effects of life history traits on synchrony in population abundance or growth rate. However, short-distance migrants exhibited more spatially extensive synchrony in population variability than either year

  14. Assessing the importance of demographic parameters for population dynamics using Bayesian integrated population modeling.

    PubMed

    Eacker, Daniel R; Lukacs, Paul M; Proffitt, Kelly M; Hebblewhite, Mark

    2017-06-01

    To successfully respond to changing habitat, climate or harvest, managers need to identify the most effective strategies to reverse population trends of declining species and/or manage harvest of game species. A classic approach in conservation biology for the last two decades has been the use of matrix population models to determine the most important vital rates affecting population growth rate (λ), that is, sensitivity. Ecologists quickly realized the critical role of environmental variability in vital rates affecting λ by developing approaches such as life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) that account for both sensitivity and variability of a vital rate. These LSA methods used matrix-population modeling and Monte Carlo simulation methods, but faced challenges in integrating data from different sources, disentangling process and sampling variation, and in their flexibility. Here, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) for two populations of a large herbivore, elk (Cervus canadensis) in Montana, USA. We then extended the IPM to evaluate sensitivity in a Bayesian framework. We integrated known-fate survival data from radio-marked adults and juveniles, fecundity data, and population counts in a hierarchical population model that explicitly accounted for process and sampling variance. Next, we tested the prevailing paradigm in large herbivore population ecology that juvenile survival of neonates <90 d old drives λ using our Bayesian LSA approach. In contrast to the prevailing paradigm in large herbivore ecology, we found that adult female survival explained more of the variation in λ than elk calf survival, and that summer and winter elk calf survival periods were nearly equivalent in importance for λ. Our Bayesian IPM improved precision of our vital rate estimates and highlighted discrepancies between count and vital rate data that could refine population monitoring, demonstrating that combining sensitivity analysis with population modeling

  15. Dynamic distributions and population declines of Golden-winged Warblers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberg, Kenneth V.; Will, Tom; Buehler, David A.; Barker Swarthout, Sara; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Chandler, Richard

    2016-01-01

    With an estimated breeding population in 2010 of 383,000 pairs, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) is among the most vulnerable and steeply declining of North American passerines. This species also has exhibited among the most dynamic breeding distributions, with populations expanding and then contracting over the past 150 years in response to regional habitat changes, interactions with closely related Blue-winged Warblers (V. cyanoptera), and possibly climate change. Since 1966, the rangewide population has declined by >70% (-2.3% per year; latest North American Breeding Bird Survey data), with much steeper declines in the Appalachian Mountains bird conservation region (-8.3% per year, 98% overall decline). Despite apparently stable or increasing populations in the northwestern part of the range (Minnesota, Manitoba), population estimates for Golden-winged Warbler have continued to decline by 18% from the decade of the 1990s to the 2000s. Population modeling predicts a further decline to roughly 37,000 individuals by 2100, with the species likely to persist only in Manitoba, Minnesota, and possibly Ontario. To delineate the present-day distribution and to identify population concentrations that could serve as conservation focus areas, we compiled rangewide survey data collected in 2000-2006 in 21 states and 3 Canadian provinces, as part of the Golden-winged Warbler Atlas Project (GOWAP), supplemented by state and provincial Breeding Bird Atlas data and more recent observations in eBird. Based on >8,000 GOWAP surveys for Golden-winged and Blue-winged warblers and their hybrids, we mapped occurrence of phenotypically pure and mixed populations in a roughly 0.5-degree grid across the species’ ranges. Hybrids and mixed Golden-winged-Blue-winged populations occurred in a relatively narrow zone across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, southern Ontario, and northern New York. Phenotypically pure Golden-winged Warbler populations occurred north of this

  16. The effect of EIF dynamics on the cryopreservation process of a size distributed cell population.

    PubMed

    Fadda, S; Briesen, H; Cincotti, A

    2011-06-01

    Typical mathematical modeling of cryopreservation of cell suspensions assumes a thermodynamic equilibrium between the ice and liquid water in the extracellular solution. This work investigates the validity of this assumption by introducing a population balance approach for dynamic extracellular ice formation (EIF) in the absence of any cryo-protectant agent (CPA). The population balance model reflects nucleation and diffusion-limited growth in the suspending solution whose driving forces are evaluated in the relevant phase diagram. This population balance description of the extracellular compartment has been coupled to a model recently proposed in the literature [Fadda et al., AIChE Journal, 56, 2173-2185, (2010)], which is capable of quantitatively describing and predicting internal ice formation (IIF) inside the cells. The cells are characterized by a size distribution (i.e. through another population balance), thus overcoming the classic view of a population of identically sized cells. From the comparison of the system behavior in terms of the dynamics of the cell size distribution it can be concluded that the assumption of a thermodynamic equilibrium in the extracellular compartment is not always justified. Depending on the cooling rate, the dynamics of EIF needs to be considered. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Terminal Dynamics Approach to Discrete Event Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail; Meyers, Ronald

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents and discusses a mathematical formalism for simulation of discrete event dynamic (DED)-a special type of 'man-made' systems to serve specific purposes of information processing. The main objective of this work is to demonstrate that the mathematical formalism for DED can be based upon a terminal model of Newtonian dynamics which allows one to relax Lipschitz conditions at some discrete points.!.

  18. Dynamical Systems Approach to Endothelial Heterogeneity

    PubMed Central

    Regan, Erzsébet Ravasz; Aird, William C.

    2012-01-01

    Rationale Objective Here we reexamine our current understanding of the molecular basis of endothelial heterogeneity. We introduce multistability as a new explanatory framework in vascular biology. Methods We draw on the field of non-linear dynamics to propose a dynamical systems framework for modeling multistability and its derivative properties, including robustness, memory, and plasticity. Conclusions Our perspective allows for both a conceptual and quantitative description of system-level features of endothelial regulation. PMID:22723222

  19. Modeling Bacterial Population Growth from Stochastic Single-Cell Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-01-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  20. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  1. Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, A R E

    2003-01-01

    The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

  2. Scale-invariant model of marine population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Capitán, José A; Delius, Gustav W

    2010-06-01

    A striking feature of the marine ecosystem is the regularity in its size spectrum: the abundance of organisms as a function of their weight approximately follows a power law over almost ten orders of magnitude. We interpret this as evidence that the population dynamics in the ocean is approximately scale-invariant. We use this invariance in the construction and solution of a size-structured dynamical population model. Starting from a Markov model encoding the basic processes of predation, reproduction, maintenance respiration, and intrinsic mortality, we derive a partial integro-differential equation describing the dependence of abundance on weight and time. Our model represents an extension of the jump-growth model and hence also of earlier models based on the McKendrick-von Foerster equation. The model is scale-invariant provided the rate functions of the stochastic processes have certain scaling properties. We determine the steady-state power-law solution, whose exponent is determined by the relative scaling between the rates of the density-dependent processes (predation) and the rates of the density-independent processes (reproduction, maintenance, and mortality). We study the stability of the steady-state against small perturbations and find that inclusion of maintenance respiration and reproduction in the model has a strong stabilizing effect. Furthermore, the steady state is unstable against a change in the overall population density unless the reproduction rate exceeds a certain threshold.

  3. Effects of rainfall on Culex mosquito population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Valdez, L D; Sibona, G J; Diaz, L A; Contigiani, M S; Condat, C A

    2017-03-27

    The dynamics of a mosquito population depends heavily on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Since climate change models predict that global warming will impact on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, it is important to understand how these variables affect the mosquito populations. We present a model of the dynamics of a Culex quinquefasciatus mosquito population that incorporates the effect of rainfall and use it to study the influence of the number of rainy days and the mean monthly precipitation on the maximum yearly abundance of mosquitoes Mmax. Additionally, using a fracturing process, we investigate the influence of the variability in daily rainfall on Mmax. We find that, given a constant value of monthly precipitation, there is an optimum number of rainy days for which Mmax is a maximum. On the other hand, we show that increasing daily rainfall variability reduces the dependence of Mmax on the number of rainy days, leading also to a higher abundance of mosquitoes for the case of low mean monthly precipitation. Finally, we explore the effect of the rainfall in the months preceding the wettest season, and we obtain that a regimen with high precipitations throughout the year and a higher variability tends to advance slightly the time at which the peak mosquito abundance occurs, but could significantly change the total mosquito abundance in a year.

  4. Characterizing the Dynamics of Proteasome Complexes by Proteomics Approaches

    PubMed Central

    Kaake, Robyn M.; Kao, Athit; Yu, Clinton

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Significance: The proteasome is the degradation machine of the ubiquitin-proteasome system, which is critical in controlling many essential biological processes. Aberrant regulation of proteasome-dependent protein degradation can lead to various human diseases, and general proteasome inhibitors have shown efficacy for cancer treatments. Though clinically effective, current proteasome inhibitors have detrimental side effects and, thus, better therapeutic strategies targeting proteasomes are needed. Therefore, a comprehensive characterization of proteasome complexes will provide the molecular details that are essential for developing new and improved drugs. Recent Advances: New mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics approaches have been developed to study protein interaction networks and structural topologies of proteasome complexes. The results have helped define the dynamic proteomes of proteasome complexes, thus providing new insights into the mechanisms underlying proteasome function and regulation. Critical Issues: The proteasome exists as heterogeneous populations in tissues/cells, and its proteome is highly dynamic and complex. In addition, proteasome complexes are regulated by various mechanisms under different physiological conditions. Consequently, complete proteomic profiling of proteasome complexes remains a major challenge for the field. Future Directions: We expect that proteomic methodologies enabling full characterization of proteasome complexes will continue to evolve. Further advances in MS instrumentation and protein separation techniques will be needed to facilitate the detailed proteomic analysis of low-abundance components and subpopulations of proteasome complexes. The results will help us understand proteasome biology as well as provide new therapeutic targets for disease diagnostics and treatment. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 21, 2444–2456. PMID:24423446

  5. A population memetics approach to cultural evolution in chaffinch song: meme diversity within populations.

    PubMed

    Lynch, A; Baker, A J

    1993-04-01

    We investigated cultural evolution in populations of common chaffinches (Fringilla coelebs) in the Atlantic islands (Azores, Madeira, Canaries) and neighboring continental regions (Morocco, Iberia) by employing a population memetics approach. To quantify variability within populations, we used the concept of a song meme, defined as a single syllable or a series of linked syllables capable of being transmitted. The frequency distribution of memes within populations generally fit a neutral model in which there is an equilibrium between mutation, migration, and drift, which suggests that memes are functionally equivalent. The diversity of memes of single syllables is significantly greater in the Azores compared to all other regions, consistent with higher population densities of chaffinches there. On the other hand, memes of two to five syllables have greater diversity in Atlantic island and Moroccan populations compared to their Iberian counterparts. This higher diversity emanates from a looser syntax and increased recombination in songs, presumably because of relaxed selection for distinctive songs in these peripheral and depauperate avifaunas. We urge comparative population memetic studies of other species of songbirds and predict that they will lead to a formulation of a general theory for the cultural evolution of bird song analogous to population genetics theory for biological traits.

  6. A POPULATION MEMETICS APPROACH TO CULTURAL EVOLUTION IN CHAFFINCH SONG: DIFFERENTIATION AMONG POPULATIONS.

    PubMed

    Lynch, Alejandro; Baker, Allan J

    1994-04-01

    We investigated cultural evolution in populations of common chaffinches (Fringilla coelebs) in the Atlantic islands (Azores, Madeira, and Canaries) and neighboring continental regions (Morocco and Iberia) by employing a population-memetic approach. To quantify differentiation, we used the concept of a song meme, defined as a single syllable or a series of linked syllables capable of being transmitted. The levels of cultural differentiation are higher among the Canaries populations than among the Azorean ones, even though the islands are on average closer to each other geographically. This is likely the result of reduced levels of migration, lower population sizes, and bottlenecks (possibly during the colonization of these populations) in the Canaries; all these factors produce a smaller effective population size and therefore accentuate the effects of differentiation by random drift. Significant levels of among-population differentiation in the Azores, in spite of substantial levels of migration, attest to the differentiating effects of high mutation rates of memes, which allow the accumulation of new mutants in different populations before migration can disperse them throughout the entire region. © 1994 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  7. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    PubMed Central

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings. PMID:26904150

  8. Auctions with Dynamic Populations: Efficiency and Revenue Maximization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Said, Maher

    We study a stochastic sequential allocation problem with a dynamic population of privately-informed buyers. We characterize the set of efficient allocation rules and show that a dynamic VCG mechanism is both efficient and periodic ex post incentive compatible; we also show that the revenue-maximizing direct mechanism is a pivot mechanism with a reserve price. We then consider sequential ascending auctions in this setting, both with and without a reserve price. We construct equilibrium bidding strategies in this indirect mechanism where bidders reveal their private information in every period, yielding the same outcomes as the direct mechanisms. Thus, the sequential ascending auction is a natural institution for achieving either efficient or optimal outcomes.

  9. Particle tagging and its implications for stellar population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Bret, Theo; Pontzen, Andrew; Cooper, Andrew P.; Frenk, Carlos; Zolotov, Adi; Brooks, Alyson M.; Governato, Fabio; Parry, Owen H.

    2017-07-01

    We establish a controlled comparison between the properties of galactic stellar haloes obtained with hydrodynamical simulations and with 'particle tagging'. Tagging is a fast way to obtain stellar population dynamics: instead of tracking gas and star formation, it 'paints' stars directly on to a suitably defined subset of dark matter particles in a collisionless, dark-matter-only simulation. Our study shows that 'live' particle tagging schemes, where stellar masses are painted on to the dark matter particles dynamically throughout the simulation, can generate good fits to the hydrodynamical stellar density profiles of a central Milky Way-like galaxy and its most prominent substructure. Energy diffusion processes are crucial to reshaping the distribution of stars in infalling spheroidal systems and hence the final stellar halo. We conclude that the success of any particular tagging scheme hinges on this diffusion being taken into account, and discuss the role of different subgrid feedback prescriptions in driving this diffusion.

  10. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment.

    PubMed

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  11. Mosquito population dynamics from cellular automata-based simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syafarina, Inna; Sadikin, Rifki; Nuraini, Nuning

    2016-02-01

    In this paper we present an innovative model for simulating mosquito-vector population dynamics. The simulation consist of two stages: demography and dispersal dynamics. For demography simulation, we follow the existing model for modeling a mosquito life cycles. Moreover, we use cellular automata-based model for simulating dispersal of the vector. In simulation, each individual vector is able to move to other grid based on a random walk. Our model is also capable to represent immunity factor for each grid. We simulate the model to evaluate its correctness. Based on the simulations, we can conclude that our model is correct. However, our model need to be improved to find a realistic parameters to match real data.

  12. Dynamical approach to the Casimir effect.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez-Lopez, P; Brito, R; Soto, R

    2011-03-01

    Casimir forces can appear between intrusions placed in different media driven by several fluctuation mechanisms, either in equilibrium or out of it. Herein, we develop a general formalism to obtain such forces from the dynamical equations of the fluctuating medium, the statistical properties of the driving noise, and the boundary conditions of the intrusions (which simulate the interaction between the intrusions and the medium). As a result, an explicit formula for the Casimir force over the intrusions is derived. This formalism contains the thermal Casimir effect as a particular limit and generalizes the study of the Casimir effect to such systems through their dynamical equations, with no appeal to their Hamiltonian, if any exists. In particular, we study the Casimir force between two infinite parallel plates with Dirichlet or Neumann boundary conditions, immersed in several media with finite correlation lengths (reaction-diffusion system, liquid crystals, and two coupled fields with non-Hermitian evolution equations). The driving Gaussian noises have vanishing or finite spatial or temporal correlation lengths; in the first case, equilibrium is reobtained and finite correlations produce nonequilibrium dynamics. The results obtained show that, generally, nonequilibrium dynamics leads to Casimir forces, whereas Casimir forces are obtained in equilibrium dynamics if the stress tensor is anisotropic.

  13. Allele dynamics plots for the study of evolutionary dynamics in viral populations.

    PubMed

    Steinbrück, Lars; McHardy, Alice Carolyn

    2011-01-01

    Phylodynamic techniques combine epidemiological and genetic information to analyze the evolutionary and spatiotemporal dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens, such as influenza A or human immunodeficiency viruses. We introduce 'allele dynamics plots' (AD plots) as a method for visualizing the evolutionary dynamics of a gene in a population. Using AD plots, we propose how to identify the alleles that are likely to be subject to directional selection. We analyze the method's merits with a detailed study of the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza A viruses. AD plots for the major surface protein of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) and the 2009 swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) viruses show the succession of substitutions that became fixed in the evolution of the two viral populations. They also allow the early identification of those viral strains that later rise to predominance, which is important for the problem of vaccine strain selection. In summary, we describe a technique that reveals the evolutionary dynamics of a rapidly evolving population and allows us to identify alleles and associated genetic changes that might be under directional selection. The method can be applied for the study of influenza A viruses and other rapidly evolving species or viruses.

  14. Understanding past, contemporary, and future dynamics of plants, populations, and communities using Sonoran Desert winter annuals.

    PubMed

    Huxman, Travis E; Kimball, Sarah; Angert, Amy L; Gremer, Jennifer R; Barron-Gafford, Greg A; Venable, D Lawrence

    2013-07-01

    Global change requires plant ecologists to predict future states of biological diversity to aid the management of natural communities, thus introducing a number of significant challenges. One major challenge is considering how the many interacting features of biological systems, including ecophysiological processes, plant life histories, and species interactions, relate to performance in the face of a changing environment. We have employed a functional trait approach to understand the individual, population, and community dynamics of a model system of Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. We have used a comprehensive approach that connects physiological ecology and comparative biology to population and community dynamics, while emphasizing both ecological and evolutionary processes. This approach has led to a fairly robust understanding of past and contemporary dynamics in response to changes in climate. In this community, there is striking variation in physiological and demographic responses to both precipitation and temperature that is described by a trade-off between water-use efficiency (WUE) and relative growth rate (RGR). This community-wide trade-off predicts both the demographic and life history variation that contribute to species coexistence. Our framework has provided a mechanistic explanation to the recent warming, drying, and climate variability that has driven a surprising shift in these communities: cold-adapted species with more buffered population dynamics have increased in relative abundance. These types of comprehensive approaches that acknowledge the hierarchical nature of biology may be especially useful in aiding prediction. The emerging, novel and nonstationary climate constrains our use of simplistic statistical representations of past plant behavior in predicting the future, without understanding the mechanistic basis of change.

  15. Recolonizing wolves and mesopredator suppression of coyotes: impacts on pronghorn population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Berger, Kim Murray; Conner, Mary M

    2008-04-01

    Food web theory predicts that the loss of large carnivores may contribute to elevated predation rates and, hence, declining prey populations, through the process of mesopredator release. However, opportunities to test predictions of the mesopredator release hypothesis are rare, and the extent to which changes in predation rates influence prey population dynamics may not be clear due to a lack of demographic information on the prey population of interest. We utilized spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in wolf distribution and abundance to evaluate whether mesopredator release of coyotes (Canis latrans), resulting from the extirpation of wolves (Canis lupus) throughout much of the United States, contributes to high rates of neonatal mortality in ungulates. To test this hypothesis, we contrasted causes of mortality and survival rates of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) neonates captured at wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites in western Wyoming, USA, between 2002 and 2004. We then used these data to parameterize stochastic population models to heuristically assess the impact of wolves on pronghorn population dynamics due to changes in neonatal survival. Coyote predation was the primary cause of mortality at all sites, but mortality due to coyotes was 34% lower in areas utilized by wolves (P < 0.001). Based on simulation modeling, the realized population growth rate was 0.92 based on fawn survival in the absence of wolves, and 1.06 at sites utilized by wolves. Thus, wolf restoration is predicted to shift the trajectory of the pronghorn population from a declining to an increasing trend. Our results suggest that reintroductions of large carnivores may influence biodiversity through effects on prey populations mediated by mesopredator suppression. In addition, our approach, which combines empirical data on the population of interest with information from other data sources, demonstrates the utility of using simulation modeling to more fully evaluate ecological theories by

  16. An iterative approach for generating statistically realistic populations of households.

    PubMed

    Gargiulo, Floriana; Ternes, Sônia; Huet, Sylvie; Deffuant, Guillaume

    2010-01-22

    Many different simulation frameworks, in different topics, need to treat realistic datasets to initialize and calibrate the system. A precise reproduction of initial states is extremely important to obtain reliable forecast from the model. This paper proposes an algorithm to create an artificial population where individuals are described by their age, and are gathered in households respecting a variety of statistical constraints (distribution of household types, sizes, age of household head, difference of age between partners and among parents and children). Such a population is often the initial state of microsimulation or (agent) individual-based models. To get a realistic distribution of households is often very important, because this distribution has an impact on the demographic evolution. Usual techniques from microsimulation approach cross different sources of aggregated data for generating individuals. In our case the number of combinations of different households (types, sizes, age of participants) makes it computationally difficult to use directly such methods. Hence we developed a specific algorithm to make the problem more easily tractable. We generate the populations of two pilot municipalities in Auvergne region (France) to illustrate the approach. The generated populations show a good agreement with the available statistical datasets (not used for the generation) and are obtained in a reasonable computational time.

  17. Time-delayed coupled logistic capacity model in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cáceres, Manuel O.

    2014-08-01

    This study proposes a delay-coupled system based on the logistic equation that models the interaction of a population with its varying environment. The integro-diferential equations of the model are presented in terms of a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity equation. The model eliminates the need for a prior knowledge of the maximum saturation environmental carrying capacity value. Therefore the dynamics toward the final attractor in a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity model is studied. Exact results are presented, and analytical conclusions have been done in terms of the two parameters of the model.

  18. The population dynamics of black-white-mulatto racial systems.

    PubMed

    Montgomery, James D

    2011-07-01

    Building on Preston and Campbell's two-sex model of intergenerational transmission, this article provides a theoretical analysis of the dynamics of the racial distribution in black-white-mulatto systems. The author shows that "bounded" patterns of racial classification and switching imply long-run racial homogeneity in the absence of differential reproduction. Beyond the theoretical analysis, the author attempts to account for the dramatic growth of the white population share in Puerto Rico in the early 20th century. Because the effects of racial classification and differential reproduction were roughly offsetting, the observed growth of the white share can be attributed almost entirely to racial switching.

  19. Global climate drives southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Leaper, Russell; Cooke, Justin; Trathan, Phil; Reid, Keith; Rowntree, Victoria; Payne, Roger

    2006-06-22

    Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series from the southwest Atlantic and the El Niño 4 region in the western Pacific were compared to an index of annual calving success of the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) breeding in Argentina. There was a strong relationship between right whale calving output and SST anomalies at South Georgia in the autumn of the previous year and also with mean El Niño 4 SST anomalies delayed by 6 years. These results extend similar observations from other krill predators and show clear linkages between global climate signals and the biological processes affecting whale population dynamics.

  20. Applications of Perron-Frobenius theory to population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Li, Chi-Kwong; Schneider, Hans

    2002-05-01

    By the use of Perron-Frobenius theory, simple proofs are given of the Fundamental Theorem of Demography and of a theorem of Cushing and Yicang on the net reproductive rate occurring in matrix models of population dynamics. The latter result, which is closely related to the Stein-Rosenberg theorem in numerical linear algebra, is further refined with some additional nonnegative matrix theory. When the fertility matrix is scaled by the net reproductive rate, the growth rate of the model is $1$. More generally, we show how to achieve a given growth rate for the model by scaling the fertility matrix. Demographic interpretations of the results are given.

  1. Front acceleration by dynamic selection in Fisher population waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bénichou, O.; Calvez, V.; Meunier, N.; Voituriez, R.

    2012-10-01

    We introduce a minimal model of population range expansion in which the phenotypes of individuals present no selective advantage and differ only in their diffusion rate. We show that such neutral phenotypic variability (i.e., that does not modify the growth rate) alone can yield phenotype segregation at the front edge, even in absence of genetic noise, and significantly impact the dynamical properties of the expansion wave. We present an exact asymptotic traveling wave solution and show analytically that phenotype segregation accelerates the front propagation. The results are compatible with field observations such as invasions of cane toads in Australia or bush crickets in Britain.

  2. Coinfection Dynamics of Two Diseases in a Single Host Population.

    PubMed

    Gao, Daozhou; Porco, Travis C; Ruan, Shigui

    2016-10-01

    A susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model that describes the coinfection and cotransmission of two infectious diseases spreading through a single population is studied. The host population consists of two subclasses: susceptible and infectious, and the infectious individuals are further divided into three subgroups: those infected by the first agent/pathogen, the second agent/pathogen, and both. The basic reproduction numbers for all cases are derived which completely determine the global stability of the system if the presence of one agent/pathogen does not affect the transmission of the other. When the constraint on the transmissibility of the dually infected hosts is removed, we introduce the invasion reproduction number, compare it with two other types of reproduction number and show the uniform persistence of both diseases under certain conditions. Numerical simulations suggest that the system can display much richer dynamics such as backward bifurcation, bistability and Hopf bifurcation.

  3. Programming microbial population dynamics by engineered cell-cell communication.

    PubMed

    Song, Hao; Payne, Stephen; Tan, Cheemeng; You, Lingchong

    2011-07-01

    A major aim of synthetic biology is to program novel cellular behavior using engineered gene circuits. Early endeavors focused on building simple circuits that fulfill simple functions, such as logic gates, bistable toggle switches, and oscillators. These gene circuits have primarily focused on single-cell behaviors since they operate intracellularly. Thus, they are often susceptible to cell-cell variations due to stochastic gene expression. Cell-cell communication offers an efficient strategy to coordinate cellular behavior at the population level. To this end, we review recent advances in engineering cell-cell communication to achieve reliable population dynamics, spanning from communication within single species to multispecies, from one-way sender-receiver communication to two-way communication in synthetic microbial ecosystems. These engineered systems serve as well-defined model systems to better understand design principles of their naturally occurring counterparts and to facilitate novel biotechnology applications.

  4. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  5. Interactions between climate, host refuge use, and tick population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Gregory D; Bull, C Michael

    2006-08-01

    The relationship between Australian sleepy lizard (Tiliqua rugosa) microhabitat use and tick (Amblyomma limbatum) population dynamics was investigated. Over 3 years (2002-2004) between 23 and 50 lizards were radio-tracked up to four times a week to record microhabitat use and each fortnight to determine tick loads. Daily maximum temperature was highly predictive of lizard microhabitat use. In hotter fortnights lizards used larger bushes and burrows for refuge. Peak background tick infestation levels and pulses of attachment coincided with higher ambient temperature. Male ticks attached throughout the year independent of season. Engorged females detached late in spring, summer and autumn, when climate regularly restricted lizards to a few thermally conservative refuges. Peak nymph and larval attachment occurred over summer and into autumn. Climate-dependent timing and type of host refuge use may influence tick population density. In more temperate summers lizards may avoid refuges with potentially high parasite loads.

  6. Programming microbial population dynamics by engineered cell-cell communication

    PubMed Central

    Song, Hao; Payne, Stephen; Tan, Cheemeng; You, Lingchong

    2013-01-01

    A major aim of synthetic biology is to program novel cellular behaviors using engineered gene circuits. Early endeavors focused on building simple circuits that fulfill simple functions, such as logic gates, bistable toggle switches, and oscillators. These gene circuits have primarily focused on single-cell behaviors since they operate intracellularly. Thus, they are often susceptible to cell-cell variations due to stochastic gene expression. Cell-cell communication offers an efficient strategy to coordinate cellular behaviors at the population level. To this end, we review recent advances in engineering cell-cell communication to achieve reliable population dynamics, spanning from communication within single species to multispecies, from one-way sender-receiver communication to two-way communication in synthetic microbial ecosystems. These engineered systems serve as well-defined model systems to better understand design principles of their naturally occurring counterparts and to facilitate novel biotechnology applications. PMID:21681967

  7. Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

    2012-02-01

    Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

  8. A residual flexibility approach to multibody dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blelloch, Paul A.; Antal, Gregory W.

    1993-01-01

    Many complex systems can be modeled as a collection of interacting bodies, where the relative motion of the bodies may be large. The dynamics of such systems are simulated using multibody dynamic formulations. Many of these treat each body as a rigid component, but recently the flexibility of the components has been incorporated. This paper presents a residual flexibility formulation of the multibody dynamics problem. The formulation is very simple and offers great computational efficiency since it treats each body as a free structure in space, interacting with other bodies only through interface forces. Each body's accelerations can be solved independently, as can each set of interface forces. We have applied the technique successfully to several special applications, and the initial implementation in a general mechanisms code has given excellent results in comparison to a direct finite element representation of flexibility.

  9. Population growth in snow geese: a modeling approach integrating demographic and survey information.

    PubMed

    Gauthier, Gilles; Besbeas, Panagiotis; Lebreton, Jean-Dominique; Morgan, Byron J T

    2007-06-01

    There are few analytic tools available to formally integrate information coming from population surveys and demographic studies. The Kalman filter is a procedure that facilitates such integration. Based on a state-space model, we can obtain a likelihood function for the survey data using a Kalman filter, which we may then combine with a likelihood for the demographic data. In this paper, we used this combined approach to analyze the population dynamics of a hunted species, the Greater Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), and to examine the extent to which it can improve previous demographic population models. The state equation of the state-space model was a matrix population model with fecundity and regression parameters relating adult survival and harvest rate estimated in a previous capture-recapture study. The observation equation combined the output from this model with estimates from an annual spring photographic survey of the population. The maximum likelihood estimates of the regression parameters from the combined analysis differed little from the values of the original capture-recapture analysis, though their precision improved. The model output was found to be insensitive to a wide range of coefficient of variation (CV) in fecundity parameters. We found a close match between the surveyed and smoothed population size estimates generated by the Kalman filter over an 18-year period, and the estimated CV of the survey (0.078-0.150) was quite compatible with its assumed value (approximately 0.10). When we used the updated parameter values to predict future population size, the model underestimated the surveyed population size by 18% over a three-year period. However, this could be explained by a concurrent change in the survey method. We conclude that the Kalman filter is a promising approach to forecast population change because it incorporates survey information in a formal way compared with ad hoc approaches that either neglect this information or

  10. Reduced dynamics with initial correlations: Multiconfigurational approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burghardt, I.

    2001-01-01

    Dynamical equations for a subsystem interacting with an environment are proposed which are adapted to a multiconfigurational form of the density operator. Initial correlations are accounted for in a non-Markovian master equation. Two variants of the latter are derived by projection operator techniques and cumulant expansion techniques, respectively. The present scheme is developed in view of describing the ultrafast dynamics in solute-solvent complexes where the details of system-environment correlations are of importance. The master equation is readily integrated into the equations of motion derived by the multiconfiguration time-dependent Hartree method, which provides an efficient scheme for the numerical propagation of the density operator.

  11. Nonlinear dynamical system approaches towards neural prosthesis

    SciTech Connect

    Torikai, Hiroyuki; Hashimoto, Sho

    2011-04-19

    An asynchronous discrete-state spiking neurons is a wired system of shift registers that can mimic nonlinear dynamics of an ODE-based neuron model. The control parameter of the neuron is the wiring pattern among the registers and thus they are suitable for on-chip learning. In this paper an asynchronous discrete-state spiking neuron is introduced and its typical nonlinear phenomena are demonstrated. Also, a learning algorithm for a set of neurons is presented and it is demonstrated that the algorithm enables the set of neurons to reconstruct nonlinear dynamics of another set of neurons with unknown parameter values. The learning function is validated by FPGA experiments.

  12. Host-Parasite Interactions and Population Dynamics of Rock Ptarmigan.

    PubMed

    Stenkewitz, Ute; Nielsen, Ólafur K; Skírnisson, Karl; Stefánsson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    evidence that E. muta through time-lag in prevalence with respect to host population size and by showing significant relations with host body condition, mortality, and fecundity could destabilize ptarmigan population dynamics in Iceland.

  13. Host-Parasite Interactions and Population Dynamics of Rock Ptarmigan

    PubMed Central

    Stenkewitz, Ute; Nielsen, Ólafur K.; Skírnisson, Karl; Stefánsson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    evidence that E. muta through time-lag in prevalence with respect to host population size and by showing significant relations with host body condition, mortality, and fecundity could destabilize ptarmigan population dynamics in Iceland. PMID:27870855

  14. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-06-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

  15. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    PubMed

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations.

  16. Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azevedo, F.; Coutinho, R. M.; Kraenkel, R. A.

    2015-05-01

    We explore the spatial dynamics of a population whose individuals go through life stages with very different dispersal capacities. We model it through a system of partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion kind, with nonlinear diffusion terms that may depend on population density and on the stage. This model includes a few key biological ingredients: growth and saturation, life stage structure, small population effects, and diffusion dependent on the stage. In particular, we consider that adults exhibit two distinct classes: one highly mobile and the other less mobile but with higher fecundity rate, and the development of juveniles into one or the other depends on population density. We parametrize the model with estimated parameters of an insect species, the brown planthopper. We focus on a situation akin to an invasion of the species in a new habitat and find that the front of invasion is led by the most mobile adult class. We also show that the trade-off between dispersal and fecundity leads to invasion speed attaining its maximum at an intermediate value of the diffusion coefficient of the most mobile class.

  17. Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

  18. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2004-01-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

  19. A shape dynamical approach to holographic renormalization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomes, Henrique; Gryb, Sean; Koslowski, Tim; Mercati, Flavio; Smolin, Lee

    2015-01-01

    We provide a bottom-up argument to derive some known results from holographic renormalization using the classical bulk-bulk equivalence of General Relativity and Shape Dynamics, a theory with spatial conformal (Weyl) invariance. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to advertise the simple classical mechanism, trading off gauge symmetries, that underlies the bulk-bulk equivalence of General Relativity and Shape Dynamics to readers interested in dualities of the type of AdS/conformal field theory (CFT); and (2) to highlight that this mechanism can be used to explain certain results of holographic renormalization, providing an alternative to the AdS/CFT conjecture for these cases. To make contact with the usual semiclassical AdS/CFT correspondence, we provide, in addition, a heuristic argument that makes it plausible that the classical equivalence between General Relativity and Shape Dynamics turns into a duality between radial evolution in gravity and the renormalization group flow of a CFT. We believe that Shape Dynamics provides a new perspective on gravity by giving conformal structure a primary role within the theory. It is hoped that this work provides the first steps toward understanding what this new perspective may be able to teach us about holographic dualities.

  20. NPV Sensitivity Analysis: A Dynamic Excel Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mangiero, George A.; Kraten, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Financial analysts generally create static formulas for the computation of NPV. When they do so, however, it is not readily apparent how sensitive the value of NPV is to changes in multiple interdependent and interrelated variables. It is the aim of this paper to analyze this variability by employing a dynamic, visually graphic presentation using…

  1. A visual analytics approach for models of heterogeneous cell populations

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, cell population models have become increasingly common. In contrast to classic single cell models, population models allow for the study of cell-to-cell variability, a crucial phenomenon in most populations of primary cells, cancer cells, and stem cells. Unfortunately, tools for in-depth analysis of population models are still missing. This problem originates from the complexity of population models. Particularly important are methods to determine the source of heterogeneity (e.g., genetics or epigenetic differences) and to select potential (bio-)markers. We propose an analysis based on visual analytics to tackle this problem. Our approach combines parallel-coordinates plots, used for a visual assessment of the high-dimensional dependencies, and nonlinear support vector machines, for the quantification of effects. The method can be employed to study qualitative and quantitative differences among cells. To illustrate the different components, we perform a case study using the proapoptotic signal transduction pathway involved in cellular apoptosis. PMID:22651376

  2. Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning

    PubMed Central

    Dann, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity. PMID:27814352

  3. Inferring network dynamics and neuron properties from population recordings.

    PubMed

    Linaro, Daniele; Storace, Marco; Mattia, Maurizio

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the computational capabilities of the nervous system means to "identify" its emergent multiscale dynamics. For this purpose, we propose a novel model-driven identification procedure and apply it to sparsely connected populations of excitatory integrate-and-fire neurons with spike frequency adaptation (SFA). Our method does not characterize the system from its microscopic elements in a bottom-up fashion, and does not resort to any linearization. We investigate networks as a whole, inferring their properties from the response dynamics of the instantaneous discharge rate to brief and aspecific supra-threshold stimulations. While several available methods assume generic expressions for the system as a black box, we adopt a mean-field theory for the evolution of the network transparently parameterized by identified elements (such as dynamic timescales), which are in turn non-trivially related to single-neuron properties. In particular, from the elicited transient responses, the input-output gain function of the neurons in the network is extracted and direct links to the microscopic level are made available: indeed, we show how to extract the decay time constant of the SFA, the absolute refractory period and the average synaptic efficacy. In addition and contrary to previous attempts, our method captures the system dynamics across bifurcations separating qualitatively different dynamical regimes. The robustness and the generality of the methodology is tested on controlled simulations, reporting a good agreement between theoretically expected and identified values. The assumptions behind the underlying theoretical framework make the method readily applicable to biological preparations like cultured neuron networks and in vitro brain slices.

  4. Populating the landscape: A top-down approach

    SciTech Connect

    Hawking, S.W.; Hertog, Thomas

    2006-06-15

    We put forward a framework for cosmology that combines the string landscape with no boundary initial conditions. In this framework, amplitudes for alternative histories for the universe are calculated with final boundary conditions only. This leads to a top-down approach to cosmology, in which the histories of the universe depend on the precise question asked. We study the observational consequences of no boundary initial conditions on the landscape, and outline a scheme to test the theory. This is illustrated in a simple model landscape that admits several alternative inflationary histories for the universe. Only a few of the possible vacua in the landscape will be populated. We also discuss in what respect the top-down approach differs from other approaches to cosmology in the string landscape, like eternal inflation.

  5. A novel modelling approach for evaluating the preindustrial natural carrying capacity of human population in Iceland.

    PubMed

    Haraldsson, Hörour V; Olafsdóttir, Rannveig

    2006-12-15

    The pre-industrial natural carrying capacity is believed to have limited the human population in Iceland to a maximum of fifty to sixty thousand inhabitants. Since AD 1800 the Icelandic population has gradually grown up to nearly 300 thousand in 2005. In this paper a simple approach is used to evaluate the potential population size that the pre-industrial Icelandic environment could possibly sustain. A dynamic model was constructed that simulates the population size according to potential biological production available for livestock. Biological production was determined by the extent of the total potential vegetation cover based on the Degree-Day concept. Fluctuations in the mean annual temperature causes changes in the potential vegetation cover and as a consequence change the biological production sustaining livestock and ultimately human population. The simulation's results indicate that the potential population that the Icelandic environments could sustain during the pre-industrial period fluctuated between 40 and 80 thousand. The results further indicate that the severe land degradation experienced after the Viking settlement period in AD 900 had a marginal impact on the population size. The pre-historical population did however overshoot the natural sustainability on several occasions.

  6. Unifying the spatial population dynamics and molecular evolution of epidemic rabies virus

    PubMed Central

    Real, Leslie A.; Henderson, J. Caroline; Biek, Roman; Snaman, Jennifer; Jack, Tracy Lambert; Childs, James E.; Stahl, Eli; Waller, Lance; Tinline, Rowland; Nadin-Davis, Susan

    2005-01-01

    Infectious disease emergence is under the simultaneous influence of both genetic and ecological factors. Yet, we lack a general framework for linking ecological dynamics of infectious disease with underlying molecular and evolutionary change. As a model, we illustrate the linkage between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in rabies virus during its epidemic expansion into eastern and southern Ontario. We characterized the phylogeographic relationships among 83 isolates of fox rabies virus variant using nucleotide sequences from the glycoprotein-encoding glycoprotein gene. The fox rabies virus variant descended as an irregular wave with two arms invading from northern Ontario into southern Ontario over the 1980s and 1990s. Correlations between genetic and geographic distance suggest an isolation by distance population structure for the virus. The divergence among viral lineages since the most recent common ancestor correlates with position along the advancing wave front with more divergent lineages near the origin of the epidemic. Based on divergence from the most recent common ancestor, the regional population can be partitioned into two subpopulations, each corresponding to an arm of the advancing wave. Subpopulation A (southern Ontario) showed reduced isolation by distance relative to subpopulation B (eastern Ontario). The temporal dynamics of subpopulation A suggests that the subregional viral population may have undergone several smaller waves that reduced isolation by distance. The use of integrated approaches, such as the geographical analysis of sequence variants, coupled with information on spatial dynamics will become indispensable aids in understanding patterns of disease emergence. PMID:16103358

  7. Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Krkošek, Martin; Hilborn, Ray; Peterman, Randall M.; Quinn, Thomas P.

    2011-01-01

    Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks. PMID:21147806

  8. Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Krkosek, Martin; Hilborn, Ray; Peterman, Randall M; Quinn, Thomas P

    2011-07-07

    Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks.

  9. Population dynamics of microbial communities in the zebrafish gut

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jemielita, Matthew; Taormina, Michael; Burns, Adam; Hampton, Jennifer; Rolig, Annah; Wiles, Travis; Guillemin, Karen; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer

    2015-03-01

    The vertebrate intestine is home to a diverse microbial community, which plays a crucial role in the development and health of its host. Little is known about the population dynamics and spatial structure of this ecosystem, including mechanisms of growth and interactions between species. We have constructed an experimental model system with which to explore these issues, using initially germ-free larval zebrafish inoculated with defined communities of fluorescently tagged bacteria. Using light sheet fluorescence microscopy combined with computational image analysis we observe and quantify the entire bacterial community of the intestine during the first 24 hours of colonization, during which time the bacterial population grows from tens to tens of thousands of bacteria. We identify both individual bacteria and clusters of bacteria, and quantify the growth rate and spatial distribution of these distinct subpopulations. We find that clusters of bacteria grow considerably faster than individuals and are located in specific regions of the intestine. Imaging colonization by two species reveals spatial segregation and competition. These data and their analysis highlight the importance of spatial organization in the establishment of gut microbial communities, and can provide inputs to physical models of real-world ecological dynamics.

  10. The Dynamics of Genetic Draft in Rapidly Adapting Populations

    PubMed Central

    Kosheleva, Katya; Desai, Michael M.

    2013-01-01

    The accumulation of beneficial mutations on competing genetic backgrounds in rapidly adapting populations has a striking impact on evolutionary dynamics. This effect, known as clonal interference, causes erratic fluctuations in the frequencies of observed mutations, randomizes the fixation times of successful mutations, and leaves distinct signatures on patterns of genetic variation. Here, we show how this form of “genetic draft” affects the forward-time dynamics of site frequencies in rapidly adapting asexual populations. We calculate the probability that mutations at individual sites shift in frequency over a characteristic timescale, extending Gillespie’s original model of draft to the case where many strongly selected beneficial mutations segregate simultaneously. We then derive the sojourn time of mutant alleles, the expected fixation time of successful mutants, and the site frequency spectrum of beneficial and neutral mutations. Finally, we show how this form of draft affects inferences in the McDonald–Kreitman test and how it relates to recent observations that some aspects of genetic diversity are described by the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent in the limit of very rapid adaptation. PMID:24002646

  11. Assessing the Dynamic Behavior of Online Q&A Knowledge Markets: A System Dynamics Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jafari, Mostafa; Hesamamiri, Roozbeh; Sadjadi, Jafar; Bourouni, Atieh

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose a holistic dynamic model for understanding the behavior of a complex and internet-based kind of knowledge market by considering both social and economic interactions. Design/methodology/approach: A system dynamics (SD) model is formulated in this study to investigate the dynamic characteristics of…

  12. Assessing the Dynamic Behavior of Online Q&A Knowledge Markets: A System Dynamics Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jafari, Mostafa; Hesamamiri, Roozbeh; Sadjadi, Jafar; Bourouni, Atieh

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose a holistic dynamic model for understanding the behavior of a complex and internet-based kind of knowledge market by considering both social and economic interactions. Design/methodology/approach: A system dynamics (SD) model is formulated in this study to investigate the dynamic characteristics of…

  13. Impact of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection on Chimpanzee Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Rudicell, Rebecca S.; Holland Jones, James; Wroblewski, Emily E.; Learn, Gerald H.; Li, Yingying; Robertson, Joel D.; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Kamenya, Shadrack; Pintea, Lilian; Mjungu, Deus C.; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V.; Mosser, Anna; Lehman, Clarence; Collins, D. Anthony; Keele, Brandon F.; Goodall, Jane; Hahn, Beatrice H.; Pusey, Anne E.; Wilson, Michael L.

    2010-01-01

    Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002–2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of −6.5% to −7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002–2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz

  14. Quantum electron-vibrational dynamics at finite temperature: Thermo field dynamics approach.

    PubMed

    Borrelli, Raffaele; Gelin, Maxim F

    2016-12-14

    Quantum electron-vibrational dynamics in molecu