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Sample records for population dynamics approach

  1. Modeling population dynamics: A quantile approach.

    PubMed

    Chavas, Jean-Paul

    2015-04-01

    The paper investigates the modeling of population dynamics, both conceptually and empirically. It presents a reduced form representation that provides a flexible characterization of population dynamics. It leads to the specification of a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model, which captures nonlinear dynamics by allowing lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with previous population levels. The usefulness of the model is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of lynx population. We find statistical evidence that the quantile autoregression parameters vary across quantiles (thus rejecting the AR model as well as the TAR model) as well as with past populations (thus rejecting the quantile autoregression QAR model). The results document the nature of dynamics and cycle in the lynx population over time. They show how both the period of the cycle and the speed of population adjustment vary with population level and environmental conditions. PMID:25661501

  2. A population dynamics approach to biological aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Almeida, R. M. C.

    A dynamical model for aging in biological population is discussed where asexual reproduction is considered. The maximum life span is inherited from parent to offspring with some random mutations described by a transition matrix, and the fertile period begins at a defined age R. The intra species competition is modeled through a Verhulst-like factor. Discrete time evolution equations are iterated and the transient and asymptotic solutions are obtained. When only bad mutations are taken into account, the stationary solutions are obtained analytically. The results are applied to the Penna model.

  3. Computer Assisted Instruction of Population Dynamics: A New Approach to Population Education. Report No. T-19.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klaff, Vivian; Handler, Paul

    Available on the University of Illinois PLATO IV Computer system, the Population Dynamic Group computer-aided instruction program for teaching population dynamics is described and explained. The computer-generated visual graphics enable fast and intuitive understanding of the dynamics of population and of the concepts and data of population. The…

  4. Optimum survival strategies against zombie infestations - a population dynamics approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mota, Bruno

    2014-03-01

    We model a zombie infestation by three coupled ODEs that jointly describe the time evolution of three populations: regular humans, zombies, and survivors (humans that have survived at least one zombie encounter). This can be generalized to take into account more levels of expertise and/or skill degradation. We compute the fixed points, and stability thereof, that correspond to one of three possible outcomes: human extinction, zombie extermination or, if one allows for a human non-zero birth-rate, co-habitation. We obtain analytically the optimum strategy for humans in terms of the model's parameters (essentially, whether to flee and hide, or fight). Zombies notwithstanding, this can also be seen as a toy model for infections of immune system cells, such as CD4+ T cells in AIDS, and macrophages in tuberculosis, whereby cells are both the target of infection, and mediate the acquired immunity response against the same infection. I thank FAPERJ for financial support.

  5. Modeling the Population Dynamics of Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria:. AN Agent-Based Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, James T.; Walshe, Ray; Devocelle, Marc

    The response of bacterial populations to antibiotic treatment is often a function of a diverse range of interacting factors. In order to develop strategies to minimize the spread of antibiotic resistance in pathogenic bacteria, a sound theoretical understanding of the systems of interactions taking place within a colony must be developed. The agent-based approach to modeling bacterial populations is a useful tool for relating data obtained at the molecular and cellular level with the overall population dynamics. Here we demonstrate an agent-based model, called Micro-Gen, which has been developed to simulate the growth and development of bacterial colonies in culture. The model also incorporates biochemical rules and parameters describing the kinetic interactions of bacterial cells with antibiotic molecules. Simulations were carried out to replicate the development of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) colonies growing in the presence of antibiotics. The model was explored to see how the properties of the system emerge from the interactions of the individual bacterial agents in order to achieve a better mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics taking place. Micro-Gen provides a good theoretical framework for investigating the effects of local environmental conditions and cellular properties on the response of bacterial populations to antibiotic exposure in the context of a simulated environment.

  6. Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect

    Hyman, James M; Restrepo, Juan M; Rael, Rosalyn C

    2009-01-01

    We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.

  7. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Rose, Amy N; Liu, Cheng; Urban, Marie L; Stewart, Robert N

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  8. T-->0 mean-field population dynamics approach for the random 3-satisfiability problem.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Haijun

    2008-06-01

    During the past decade, phase-transition phenomena in the random 3-satisfiability ( 3 -SAT) problem has been intensively studied by statistical physics methods. In this work, we study the random 3 -SAT problem by the mean-field first-step replica-symmetry-broken cavity theory at the limit of temperature T-->0 . The reweighting parameter y of the cavity theory is allowed to approach infinity together with the inverse temperature beta with fixed ratio r=ybeta . Focusing on the system's space of satisfiable configurations, we carry out extensive population dynamics simulations using the technique of importance sampling, and we obtain the entropy density s(r) and complexity Sigma(r) of zero-energy clusters at different r values. We demonstrate that the population dynamics may reach different fixed points with different types of initial conditions. By knowing the trends of s(r) and Sigma(r) with r , we can judge whether a certain type of initial condition is appropriate at a given r value. This work complements and confirms the results of several other very recent theoretical studies. PMID:18643331

  9. Experimental Investigation on the Validity of Population Dynamics Approach to Bacterial Colony Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wakita, Jun-ichi; Komatsu, Kenji; Nakahara, Akio; Matsuyama, Tohey; Matsushita, Mitsugu

    1994-03-01

    We have investigated the dynamics of a two-dimensional spreading of a bacterial population in a surface environment. After point inoculation of flagellated bacteria ( Bacillus subtilis) on nutrient-rich semi-solid medium, the bacterial population grew up by multiplication and translocation of cells, and developed a homogeneous round colony. By comparing experimental results with those of numerical simulations of the model equation, we found that this homogeneous population growth of bacteria is an actual manifestation of growth dynamics described by the Fisher's equation.

  10. Dynamics and recovery of a sediment-exposed Chironomus riparius population: A modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Diepens, Noël J; Beltman, Wim H J; Koelmans, Albert A; Van den Brink, Paul J; Baveco, Johannes M

    2016-06-01

    Models can be used to assess long-term risks of sediment-bound contaminants at the population level. However, these models usually lack the coupling between chemical fate in the sediment, toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic processes in individuals and propagation of individual-level effects to the population. We developed a population model that includes all these processes, and used it to assess the importance of chemical uptake routes on a Chironomus riparius population after pulsed exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos. We show that particle ingestion is an important additional exposure pathway affecting C. riparius population dynamics and recovery. Models ignoring particle ingestion underestimate the impact and the required recovery times, which implies that they underestimate risks of sediment-bound chemicals. Additional scenario studies showed the importance of selecting the biologically relevant sediment layer and showed population effects in the long term. PMID:27031571

  11. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  12. Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

    PubMed

    Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

    2014-04-01

    Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be

  13. Dynamics of organic matter and microbial populations in amended soil: a multidisciplinary approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gigliotti, Giovanni; Pezzolla, Daniela; Zadra, Claudia; Albertini, Emidio; Marconi, Gianpiero; Turchetti, Benedetta; Buzzini, Pietro

    2013-04-01

    The application of organic amendments to soils, such as pig slurry, sewage sludge and compost is considered a tool for improving soil fertility and enhancing C stock. The addition of these different organic materials allows a good supply of nutrients for plants but also contributes to C sequestration, affects the microbial activity and the transformation of soil organic matter (SOM). Moreover, the addition of organic amendment has gained importance as a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and then as a cause of the "Global Warming". Therefore, it is important to investigate the factors controlling the SOM mineralization in order to improve soil C sequestration and decreasing at the same time the GHG emissions. The quality of organic matter added to the soil will play an important role in these dynamics, affecting the microbial activity and the changes in microbial community structure. A laboratory, multidisciplinary experiment was carried out to test the effect of the amendment by anaerobic digested livestock-derived organic materials on labile organic matter evolution and on dynamics of microbial population, this latter both in terms of consistence of microbial biomass, as well as in terms of microbial biodiversity. Different approaches were used to study the microbial community structure: chemical (CO2 fluxes, WEOC, C-biomass, PLFA), microbiological (microbial enumeration) and molecular (DNA extraction and Roche 454, Next Generation Sequencing, NGS). The application of fresh digestate, derived from the anaerobic treatment of animal wastes, affected the short-term dynamics of microbial community, as reflected by the increase of CO2 emissions immediately after the amendment compared to the control soil. This is probably due to the addition of easily available C added with the digestate, demonstrating that this organic material was only partially stabilized by the anaerobic process. In fact, the digestate contained a high amounts of available C, which led to

  14. The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native hawaiian birds: A modeling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, M.D.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Decastro, F.; Ahumada, J.A.; Lapointe, D.A.; Atkinson, C.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Hart, P.J.; Duffy, D.C.

    2011-01-01

    We developed an epidemiological model of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) across an altitudinal gradient on the island of Hawaii that includes the dynamics of the host, vector, and parasite. This introduced mosquito-borne disease is hypothesized to have contributed to extinctions and major shifts in the altitudinal distribution of highly susceptible native forest birds. Our goal was to better understand how biotic and abiotic factors influence the intensity of malaria transmission and impact on susceptible populations of native Hawaiian forest birds. Our model illustrates key patterns in the malaria-forest bird system: high malaria transmission in low-elevation forests with minor seasonal or annual variation in infection;episodic transmission in mid-elevation forests with site-to-site, seasonal, and annual variation depending on mosquito dynamics;and disease refugia in high-elevation forests with only slight risk of infection during summer. These infection patterns are driven by temperature and rainfall effects on parasite incubation period and mosquito dynamics across an elevational gradient and the availability of larval habitat, especially in mid-elevation forests. The results from our model suggest that disease is likely a key factor in causing population decline or restricting the distribution of many susceptible Hawaiian species and preventing the recovery of other vulnerable species. The model also provides a framework for the evaluation of factors influencing disease transmission and alternative disease control programs, and to evaluate the impact of climate change on disease cycles and bird populations. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  15. Modelling the movement of interacting cell populations: a moment dynamics approach.

    PubMed

    Johnston, Stuart T; Simpson, Matthew J; Baker, Ruth E

    2015-04-01

    Mathematical models describing the movement of multiple interacting subpopulations are relevant to many biological and ecological processes. Standard mean-field partial differential equation descriptions of these processes suffer from the limitation that they implicitly neglect to incorporate the impact of spatial correlations and clustering. To overcome this, we derive a moment dynamics description of a discrete stochastic process which describes the spreading of distinct interacting subpopulations. In particular, we motivate our model by mimicking the geometry of two typical cell biology experiments. Comparing the performance of the moment dynamics model with a traditional mean-field model confirms that the moment dynamics approach always outperforms the traditional mean-field approach. To provide more general insight we summarise the performance of the moment dynamics model and the traditional mean-field model over a wide range of parameter regimes. These results help distinguish between those situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently strong, such that a moment dynamics model is required, from other situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently weak, such that a traditional mean-field model is adequate. PMID:25644755

  16. Dynamics and forecasting of population growth and urban expansion in Srinagar City - A Geospatial Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farooq, M.; Muslim, M.

    2014-11-01

    The urban areas of developing countries are densely populated and need the use of sophisticated monitoring systems, such as remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). The urban sprawl of a city is best understood by studying the dynamics of LULC change which can be easily generated by using sequential satellite images, required for the prediction of urban growth. Multivariate statistical techniques and regression models have been used to establish the relationship between the urban growth and its causative factors and for forecast of the population growth and urban expansion. In Srinagar city, one of the fastest growing metropolitan cities situated in Jammu and Kashmir State of India, sprawl is taking its toll on the natural resources at an alarming pace. The present study was carried over a period of 40 years (1971-2011), to understand the dynamics of spatial and temporal variability of urban sprawl. The results reveal that built-up area has increased by 585.08 % while as the population has increased by 214.75 %. The forecast showed an increase of 246.84 km2 in built-up area which exceeds the overall carrying capacity of the city. The most common conversions were also evaluated.

  17. A field-theoretic approach to the May-Leonard cyclic population dynamics model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serrao, Shannon; Täuber, Uwe

    Spatially extended stochastic population dynamics models with cyclic predation interactions display intriguing time evolution and spontaneous structure formation. We study a version of the May-Leonard cyclic competition model in d dimensions with diffusive particle propagation. We use the second-quantized Doi-Peliti formalism and ensuing coherent-state path integral representation to construct its continuum representation and explore its collective dynamics. Expanding the resulting action about the mean-field species concentrations enables us to compute the diagonalized harmonic propagators and hence 'masses', i.e., relaxation rates and eigenfrequencies of the fundamental modes. Furthermore, operating near the Hopf bifurcation point, we identify the validity range for the necessary time scale separation that allows us to project out the purely relaxing eigenmode. The remaining oscillating fields obey the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation, which is consistent with spiral pattern formation.

  18. Modelling Population Dynamics in Realistic Landscapes with Linear Elements: A Mechanistic-Statistical Reaction-Diffusion Approach

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We propose and develop a general approach based on reaction-diffusion equations for modelling a species dynamics in a realistic two-dimensional (2D) landscape crossed by linear one-dimensional (1D) corridors, such as roads, hedgerows or rivers. Our approach is based on a hybrid “2D/1D model”, i.e, a system of 2D and 1D reaction-diffusion equations with homogeneous coefficients, in which each equation describes the population dynamics in a given 2D or 1D element of the landscape. Using the example of the range expansion of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in France and its main highways as 1D corridors, we show that the model can be fitted to realistic observation data. We develop a mechanistic-statistical approach, based on the coupling between a model of population dynamics and a probabilistic model of the observation process. This allows us to bridge the gap between the data (3 levels of infestation, at the scale of a French department) and the output of the model (population densities at each point of the landscape), and to estimate the model parameter values using a maximum-likelihood approach. Using classical model comparison criteria, we obtain a better fit and a better predictive power with the 2D/1D model than with a standard homogeneous reaction-diffusion model. This shows the potential importance of taking into account the effect of the corridors (highways in the present case) on species dynamics. With regard to the particular case of A. albopictus, the conclusion that highways played an important role in species range expansion in mainland France is consistent with recent findings from the literature. PMID:26986201

  19. Modelling Population Dynamics in Realistic Landscapes with Linear Elements: A Mechanistic-Statistical Reaction-Diffusion Approach.

    PubMed

    Roques, Lionel; Bonnefon, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    We propose and develop a general approach based on reaction-diffusion equations for modelling a species dynamics in a realistic two-dimensional (2D) landscape crossed by linear one-dimensional (1D) corridors, such as roads, hedgerows or rivers. Our approach is based on a hybrid "2D/1D model", i.e, a system of 2D and 1D reaction-diffusion equations with homogeneous coefficients, in which each equation describes the population dynamics in a given 2D or 1D element of the landscape. Using the example of the range expansion of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in France and its main highways as 1D corridors, we show that the model can be fitted to realistic observation data. We develop a mechanistic-statistical approach, based on the coupling between a model of population dynamics and a probabilistic model of the observation process. This allows us to bridge the gap between the data (3 levels of infestation, at the scale of a French department) and the output of the model (population densities at each point of the landscape), and to estimate the model parameter values using a maximum-likelihood approach. Using classical model comparison criteria, we obtain a better fit and a better predictive power with the 2D/1D model than with a standard homogeneous reaction-diffusion model. This shows the potential importance of taking into account the effect of the corridors (highways in the present case) on species dynamics. With regard to the particular case of A. albopictus, the conclusion that highways played an important role in species range expansion in mainland France is consistent with recent findings from the literature. PMID:26986201

  20. Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

    PubMed Central

    Zipkin, Elise F; Sillett, T Scott; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of

  1. Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: a comparison to capture-recapture approaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive

  2. Spike train statistics and dynamics with synaptic input from any renewal process: a population density approach.

    PubMed

    Ly, Cheng; Tranchina, Daniel

    2009-02-01

    In the probability density function (PDF) approach to neural network modeling, a common simplifying assumption is that the arrival times of elementary postsynaptic events are governed by a Poisson process. This assumption ignores temporal correlations in the input that sometimes have important physiological consequences. We extend PDF methods to models with synaptic event times governed by any modulated renewal process. We focus on the integrate-and-fire neuron with instantaneous synaptic kinetics and a random elementary excitatory postsynaptic potential (EPSP), A. Between presynaptic events, the membrane voltage, v, decays exponentially toward rest, while s, the time since the last synaptic input event, evolves with unit velocity. When a synaptic event arrives, v jumps by A, and s is reset to zero. If v crosses the threshold voltage, an action potential occurs, and v is reset to v(reset). The probability per unit time of a synaptic event at time t, given the elapsed time s since the last event, h(s, t), depends on specifics of the renewal process. We study how regularity of the train of synaptic input events affects output spike rate, PDF and coefficient of variation (CV) of the interspike interval, and the autocorrelation function of the output spike train. In the limit of a deterministic, clocklike train of input events, the PDF of the interspike interval converges to a sum of delta functions, with coefficients determined by the PDF for A. The limiting autocorrelation function of the output spike train is a sum of delta functions whose coefficients fall under a damped oscillatory envelope. When the EPSP CV, sigma A/mu A, is equal to 0.45, a CV for the intersynaptic event interval, sigma T/mu T = 0.35, is functionally equivalent to a deterministic periodic train of synaptic input events (CV = 0) with respect to spike statistics. We discuss the relevance to neural network simulations. PMID:19431264

  3. Application of a High-Density Oligonucleotide Microarray Approach To Study Bacterial Population Dynamics during Uranium Reduction and Reoxidation†

    PubMed Central

    Brodie, Eoin L.; DeSantis, Todd Z.; Joyner, Dominique C.; Baek, Seung M.; Larsen, Joern T.; Andersen, Gary L.; Hazen, Terry C.; Richardson, Paul M.; Herman, Donald J.; Tokunaga, Tetsu K.; Wan, Jiamin M.; Firestone, Mary K.

    2006-01-01

    Reduction of soluble uranium U(VI) to less-soluble uranium U(IV) is a promising approach to minimize migration from contaminated aquifers. It is generally assumed that, under constant reducing conditions, U(IV) is stable and immobile; however, in a previous study, we documented reoxidation of U(IV) under continuous reducing conditions (Wan et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. 2005, 39:6162-6169). To determine if changes in microbial community composition were a factor in U(IV) reoxidation, we employed a high-density phylogenetic DNA microarray (16S microarray) containing 500,000 probes to monitor changes in bacterial populations during this remediation process. Comparison of the 16S microarray with clone libraries demonstrated successful detection and classification of most clone groups. Analysis of the most dynamic groups of 16S rRNA gene amplicons detected by the 16S microarray identified five clusters of bacterial subfamilies responding in a similar manner. This approach demonstrated that amplicons of known metal-reducing bacteria such as Geothrix fermentans (confirmed by quantitative PCR) and those within the Geobacteraceae were abundant during U(VI) reduction and did not decline during the U(IV) reoxidation phase. Significantly, it appears that the observed reoxidation of uranium under reducing conditions occurred despite elevated microbial activity and the consistent presence of metal-reducing bacteria. High-density phylogenetic microarrays constitute a powerful tool, enabling the detection and monitoring of a substantial portion of the microbial population in a routine, accurate, and reproducible manner. PMID:16957256

  4. An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison sage-grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data

    PubMed Central

    Davis, Amy J; Hooten, Mevin B; Phillips, Michael L; Doherty, Paul F

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years. PMID:25540687

  5. An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison Sage-Grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Phillips, Michael L.; Doherty, Paul F.

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.

  6. Approach to population control.

    PubMed

    Bose, A

    1983-01-26

    Due to the fact that India was the 1st nation to adopt population control as a state policy and that targets for various family planning methods are set by the Department of Family Planning, it is assumed that family planning is basically the concern of the Department of Family Planning. Consequently, family planning is viewed as a public sector activity that requires little participation on the part of the people. This presents a great danger to the success of the family planning program. Family planning needs to be the primary concern of the people and not the government. The new 20 point program emphasizes that family planning should be promoted on a voluntary basis as a people's movement. This has been interpreted by many to mean that increasingly more funds should be given to voluntary agencies working in the field of family planning. Yet, there is deep distrust on the part of the government departments regarding doling out funds to voluntary agencies. It is suggested that the government should adopt a new approach to the problem of population control through the promotion and mobilization of voluntary effort in rural areas. In view of the clear demonstration of the impact of female education on fertility levels, the Family Planning Department should announce a new scheme to help all voluntary agencies which focus attention on the education of girls in neglected rural areas and should launch a special schooling program for girls in the area of nutrition. In addition, the informal education of women through the mobilization of local talent and resources to generate social awareness should be undertaken. In India, Kerala has the distinction of having the highest literacy rate, the highest life expectancy, the lowest mortality and infant mortality rates, and the lowest birthrate. The birthrate in rural Kerala is 27/1000 in contrast to 40/1000 in rural Uttar Pradesh. A high average marriage age has contributed substantially to lowering the birthrate. The key

  7. Language dynamics in finite populations.

    PubMed

    Komarova, Natalia L; Nowak, Martin A

    2003-04-01

    Any mechanism of language acquisition can only learn a restricted set of grammars. The human brain contains a mechanism for language acquisition which can learn a restricted set of grammars. The theory of this restricted set is universal grammar (UG). UG has to be sufficiently specific to induce linguistic coherence in a population. This phenomenon is known as "coherence threshold". Previously, we have calculated the coherence threshold for deterministic dynamics and infinitely large populations. Here, we extend the framework to stochastic processes and finite populations. If there is selection for communicative function (selective language dynamics), then the analytic results for infinite populations are excellent approximations for finite populations; as expected, finite populations need a slightly higher accuracy of language acquisition to maintain coherence. If there is no selection for communicative function (neutral language dynamics), then linguistic coherence is only possible for finite populations.

  8. Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

    1999-01-01

    The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

  9. Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Moreno, Eduardo S; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario S; Oklander, Luciana I; Kowalewski, Martín M; Beldomenico, Pablo M; Goenaga, Silvina; Martínez, Mariela; Lestani, Eduardo; Desbiez, Arnaud LJ; Miller, Philip

    2015-01-01

    In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level. PMID:26517499

  10. Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics.

    PubMed

    Moreno, Eduardo S; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario S; Oklander, Luciana I; Kowalewski, Martín M; Beldomenico, Pablo M; Goenaga, Silvina; Martínez, Mariela; Lestani, Eduardo; Desbiez, Arnaud L J; Miller, Philip

    2015-11-01

    In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

  11. Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics.

    PubMed

    Moreno, Eduardo S; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario S; Oklander, Luciana I; Kowalewski, Martín M; Beldomenico, Pablo M; Goenaga, Silvina; Martínez, Mariela; Lestani, Eduardo; Desbiez, Arnaud L J; Miller, Philip

    2015-11-01

    In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level. PMID:26517499

  12. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  13. Population dynamics with and without selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pȩkalski, Andrzej; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2001-03-01

    A model describing population dynamics is presented. We study the effect of selection pressure and inbreeding on the time evolution of the population and the chances of survival. We find that the selection is in general beneficial, enabling survival of a population whose size is declining. Inbreeding reduces the survival chances since it leads to clustering of individuals. We have also found, in agreement with biological data, that there is a threshold value of the initial size of the population, as well as of the habitat, below which the population will almost certainly become extinct. We present analytical and computer simulation approaches.

  14. Two complementary paradigms for analysing population dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Krebs, Charles J

    2002-01-01

    To understand why population growth rate is sometimes positive and sometimes negative, ecologists have adopted two main approaches. The most common approach is through the density paradigm by plotting population growth rate against population density. The second approach is through the mechanistic paradigm by plotting population growth rate against the relevant ecological processes affecting the population. The density paradigm is applied a posteriori, works sometimes but not always and is remarkably useless in solving management problems or in providing an understanding of why populations change in size. The mechanistic paradigm investigates the factors that supposedly drive density changes and is identical to Caughley's declining population paradigm of conservation biology. The assumption that we can uncover invariant relationships between population growth rate and some other variables is an article of faith. Numerous commercial fishery applications have failed to find the invariant relationships between stock and recruitment that are predicted by the density paradigm. Environmental variation is the rule, and non-equilibrial dynamics should force us to look for the mechanisms of population change. If multiple factors determine changes in population density, there can be no predictability in either of these paradigms and we will become environmental historians rather than scientists with useful generalizations for the population problems of this century. Defining our questions clearly and adopting an experimental approach with crisp alternative hypotheses and adequate controls will be essential to building useful generalizations for solving the practical problems of population management in fisheries, wildlife and conservation. PMID:12396513

  15. Discreteness effects in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Lecomte, Vivien

    2016-05-01

    We analyse numerically the effects of small population size in the initial transient regime of a simple example population dynamics. These effects play an important role for the numerical determination of large deviation functions of additive observables for stochastic processes. A method commonly used in order to determine such functions is the so-called cloning algorithm which in its non-constant population version essentially reduces to the determination of the growth rate of a population, averaged over many realizations of the dynamics. However, the averaging of populations is highly dependent not only on the number of realizations of the population dynamics, and on the initial population size but also on the cut-off time (or population) considered to stop their numerical evolution. This may result in an over-influence of discreteness effects at initial times, caused by small population size. We overcome these effects by introducing a (realization-dependent) time delay in the evolution of populations, additional to the discarding of the initial transient regime of the population growth where these discreteness effects are strong. We show that the improvement in the estimation of the large deviation function comes precisely from these two main contributions.

  16. Modeling the effect of sedentary behaviour on the prevention of population obesity using the system dynamics approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura; Zulkepli, Jafri Hj

    2015-10-01

    Obesity is a medical condition where an individual has an excessive amount of body fat. There are many factors contributing to obesity and one of them is the sedentary behaviour. Rapid development in industrialization and urbanization has brought changes to Malaysia's socioeconomic, especially the lifestyles of Malaysians. With this lifestyle transition, one of the impact is on weight and obesity. How does sedentary behaviour have an impact on the growth of Malaysian population's weight and obesity? What is the most effective sedentary behaviour preventing strategy to obesity? Is it through reduction in duration or frequency of sedentary behaviour? Thus, the aim of this paper is to design an intervention to analyse the effect of decreasing duration and frequency of sedentary behaviour on the population reversion trends of average weight (AW), average body mass index (ABMI), and prevalence of overweight and obesity (POVB). This study combines the different strands of sub-models comprised of nutrition, physical activity and body metabolism, and then synthesis these knowledge into a system dynamics of weight behaviour model, namely SIMULObese. Findings from this study revealed that Malaysian's adults spend a lot of time engaged in sedentary behaviour and this resulted in weight gain and obesity. Comparing between frequency and duration of sedentary behaviour, this study reported that reduced in duration or time spend in sedentary behaviour is a better preventing strategy to obesity compared to duration. As a summary, this study highlighted the importance of decreasing the frequency and duration of sedentary behaviour in developing guidelines to prevent obesity.

  17. Viral population dynamics and virulence thresholds.

    PubMed

    Lancaster, Karen Z; Pfeiffer, Julie K

    2012-08-01

    Viral factors and host barriers influence virally induced disease, and asymptomatic versus symptomatic infection is governed by a 'virulence threshold'. Understanding modulation of virulence thresholds could lend insight into disease outcome and aid in rational therapeutic and vaccine design. RNA viruses are an excellent system to study virulence thresholds in the context of quasispecies population dynamics. RNA viruses have high error frequencies and our understanding of viral population dynamics has been shaped by quasispecies evolutionary theory. In turn, research using RNA viruses as replicons with short generation times and high mutation rates has been an invaluable tool to test models of quasispecies theory. The challenge and new frontier of RNA virus population dynamics research is to combine multiple theoretical models and experimental data to describe viral population behavior as it changes, moving within and between hosts, to predict disease and pathogen emergence. Several excellent studies have begun to undertake this challenge using novel approaches.

  18. Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1979-01-01

    The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

  19. Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Bariabagar, H

    1978-01-01

    2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

  20. Water in India with reference to agriculture and population: some issues and patterns -- dynamic approaches needed for development.

    PubMed

    Roy, B K

    1990-03-01

    Population growth is increasing the demand for water in India, especially for agricultural purposes. Yet, the government of India has not included an assessment of water needs for an expanding population into its development strategy. The leading obstacle to such an assessment is lack of quality data. In fact, the latest data comes from the 1981 Census. A government official proposes to transform climate and water balance synthesis into crop regions as a means to evaluate the national or macro level effects on agriculture. Rice is the dominant crop of the eastern and coastal regions of India which have a humid and rainy climate. The acute to marginally dry crop regions grow jowar, maize, bajra, and ragi and face a water shortage. In dry northwestern India, developed irrigation systems sustain the wheat crop. Agricultural water needs depend on sufficient monsoon rain and/or irrigation. India has 5 microclimates: perhumid, humid, dry, semiarid, and arid regions. 40.7% of all of India which comprises 33.4% of the population is prone to drought. Rural-urban migration since 1960 has increased the urban population size in India, yet most cities' master plans for provision of safe drinking water for urban dwellers are only advisory rather than mandatory. In fact, 460,000 urban dwellers and many rural dwellers still depend on rivers, canals, or tanks which often are contaminated with sewage, toxins, and radioactive materials. Further, only 0.53% of the rural population has sanitation facilities. 5-level zoning (population-hydrological regions) for India would provide distributional aspects of water by major and minor surface water plans and groundwater, which in turn would bring about a practical infrastructure to different areas for agricultural and population needs. Much of the baseline data needed to develop these regions and to research this system already exists.

  1. Evolutionary dynamics on interdependent populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Gracia-Lázaro, Carlos; Floría, Luis Mario; Moreno, Yamir

    2012-11-01

    Although several mechanisms can promote cooperative behavior, there is no general consensus about why cooperation survives when the most profitable action for an individual is to defect, especially when the population is well mixed. Here we show that when a replicator such as evolutionary game dynamics takes place on interdependent networks, cooperative behavior is fixed on the system. Remarkably, we analytically and numerically show that this is even the case for well-mixed populations. Our results open the path to mechanisms able to sustain cooperation and can provide hints for controlling its rise and fall in a variety of biological and social systems.

  2. Cyclic dynamics in simulated plant populations.

    PubMed Central

    Bauer, Silke; Berger, Uta; Hildenbrandt, Hanno; Grimm, Volker

    2002-01-01

    Despite the general interest in nonlinear dynamics in animal populations, plant populations are supposed to show a stable equilibrium that is attributed to fundamental differences compared with animals. Some studies find more complex dynamics, but empirical studies usually are too short and most modelling studies ignore important spatial aspects of local competition and establishment. Therefore, we used a spatially explicit individual-based model of a hypothetical, non-clonal perennial to explore which mechanisms might generate complex dynamics, i.e. cycles. The model is based on the field-of-neighbourhood approach that describes local competition and establishment in a phenomenological manner. We found cyclic population dynamics for a wide spectrum of model variants, provided that mortality is determined by local competition and recruitment is virtually completely suppressed within the zone of influence of established plants. This destabilizing effect of local processes within plant populations might have wide-ranging implications for the understanding of plant community dynamics and coexistence. PMID:12495487

  3. Dynamic Approaches to Language Processing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Srinivasan, Narayanan

    2007-01-01

    Symbolic rule-based approaches have been a preferred way to study language and cognition. Dissatisfaction with rule-based approaches in the 1980s lead to alternative approaches to study language, the most notable being the dynamic approaches to language processing. Dynamic approaches provide a significant alternative by not being rule-based and…

  4. Structural dynamics and ecology of flatfish populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bailey, Kevin M.

    1997-11-01

    The concept of structure in populations of marine fishes is fundamental to how we manage and conduct research on these resources. The degree of population structure ranges widely among flatfishes. Although we know that large populations tend to be subdivided into local populations, based on morphological, meristic and reproductive characteristics, these data often conflict with evidence on genetic stock structure, due to the scale and organization of movement within the metapopulation. Movement of individuals between local subpopulations and colonization events on a macroecological scale are probably important to some flatfish populations. Dispersal of larvae is known to be a major factor affecting population mixing. Some flatfishes have planktonic stages of long duration and for these species there is often, but not always, little population structure; gene flow sometimes may be limited by oceanographic features, such as eddies and fronts. At the juvenile stage dispersal can result in colonization of under-utilized habitats; however, for flatfishes with strong habitat requirements, this type of event may be less likely when suitable habitats are fragmented. Complex population structure has major implications for management, e.g. lumping harvested populations with little gene flow can have detrimental local effects. Moreover, the issue of population structure and movement influences the interpretation of research data, where populations are generally treated as closed systems. There is currently a strong need for a multidisciplinary approach to study fish population dynamics and the structure of their populations. This research should involve molecular geneticists, population geneticists, animal behaviourists and ecologists. Migration mechanisms, colonization and extinction events, gene flow and density-dependent movements are subject areas of great importance to managing large harvested populations, but our understanding of them at ecological scales, at least for

  5. Coherent state approach to the cross-collisional effects in the population dynamics of a two-mode Bose-Einstein condensate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viscondi, Thiago F.; Furuya, K.; de Oliveira, M. C.

    2009-09-01

    We reanalyze the non-linear population dynamics of a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) in a double well trap considering a semiclassical approach based on a time dependent variational principle applied to coherent states associated to SU(2) group. Employing a two-mode local approximation and hard sphere type interaction, we show in the Schwinger's pseudo-spin language the occurrence of a fixed point bifurcation that originates a separatrix of motion on a sphere. This separatrix corresponds to the borderline between two dynamical regimes of Josephson oscillations and mesoscopic self-trapping. We also consider the effects of interaction between particles in different wells, known as cross-collisions. Such terms are usually neglected for traps sufficiently far apart, but recently it has been shown that they contribute to the effective tunneling constant with a factor growing linearly with the particle number. This effect changes considerably the effective tunneling of the system for sufficiently large number of trapped atoms, in perfect accord with experimental data. Finally, we identify analytically the transition parameter associated to the bifurcation in the generalized phase space of the model with cross-collision terms, and show how the dynamical regime depends on the initial conditions of the system and the collisional parameters values.

  6. Dynamic control and quantification of bacterial population dynamics in droplets

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Shuqiang; Srimani, Jaydeep K.; Lee, Anna J.; Zhang, Ying; Lopatkin, Allison J.; Leong, Kam W.; You, Lingchong

    2015-01-01

    Culturing and measuring bacterial population dynamics are critical to develop insights into gene regulation or bacterial physiology. Traditional methods, based on bulk culture to obtain such quantification, have the limitations of higher cost/volume of reagents, non-amendable to small size of population and more laborious manipulation. To this end, droplet-based microfluidics represents a promising alternative that is cost-effective and high-throughput. However, difficulties in manipulating the droplet environment and monitoring encapsulated bacterial population for long-term experiments limit its utilization. To overcome these limitations, we used an electrode-free injection technology to modulate the chemical environment in droplets. This ability is critical for precise control of bacterial dynamics in droplets. Moreover, we developed a trapping device for long-term monitoring of population dynamics in individual droplets for at least 240 h. We demonstrated the utility of this new microfluidic system by quantifying population dynamics of natural and engineered bacteria. Our approach can further improve the analysis for systems and synthetic biology in terms of manipulability and high temporal resolution. PMID:26005763

  7. Flood trends and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  8. [Population structure and dynamics: the population matrix].

    PubMed

    Wang, C S; Gorter, D

    1990-08-01

    "This article shows an alternative way of presenting population data. The population matrix, constructed as an important part in the process of compiling socio-demographic accounts, demonstrates the close connection between stock and flow data, bringing both types of data consistently together." Official data for the Netherlands are used to illustrate the concept. (SUMMARY IN ENG) PMID:12342861

  9. Coevolutionary dynamics in large, but finite populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traulsen, Arne; Claussen, Jens Christian; Hauert, Christoph

    2006-07-01

    Coevolving and competing species or game-theoretic strategies exhibit rich and complex dynamics for which a general theoretical framework based on finite populations is still lacking. Recently, an explicit mean-field description in the form of a Fokker-Planck equation was derived for frequency-dependent selection with two strategies in finite populations based on microscopic processes [A. Traulsen, J. C. Claussen, and C. Hauert, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 238701 (2005)]. Here we generalize this approach in a twofold way: First, we extend the framework to an arbitrary number of strategies and second, we allow for mutations in the evolutionary process. The deterministic limit of infinite population size of the frequency-dependent Moran process yields the adjusted replicator-mutator equation, which describes the combined effect of selection and mutation. For finite populations, we provide an extension taking random drift into account. In the limit of neutral selection, i.e., whenever the process is determined by random drift and mutations, the stationary strategy distribution is derived. This distribution forms the background for the coevolutionary process. In particular, a critical mutation rate uc is obtained separating two scenarios: above uc the population predominantly consists of a mixture of strategies whereas below uc the population tends to be in homogeneous states. For one of the fundamental problems in evolutionary biology, the evolution of cooperation under Darwinian selection, we demonstrate that the analytical framework provides excellent approximations to individual based simulations even for rather small population sizes. This approach complements simulation results and provides a deeper, systematic understanding of coevolutionary dynamics.

  10. (Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Grenfell, B; Harwood, J

    1997-10-01

    The metapopulation concept provides a very powerful tool for analysing the persistence of spatially-disaggregated populations, in terms of a balance between local extinction and colonization. Exactly the same approach has been developed by epidemiologists, in order to understand patterns of diseases persistence. There is great scope for further cross-fertilization between areas. Recent work on the spatitemporal dynamics of measles illustrates that the large datasets and rich modelling literature on many infectious diseases offer great potential for developing and testing ideas about metapopulations.

  11. Population dynamics of obligate cooperators

    PubMed Central

    Courchamp, F.; Grenfell, B.; Clutton-Brock, T.

    1999-01-01

    Obligate cooperative breeding species demonstrate a high rate of group extinction, which may be due to the existence of a critical number of helpers below which the group cannot subsist. Through a simple model, we study the population dynamics of obligate cooperative breeding species, taking into account the existence of a lower threshold below which the instantaneous growth rate becomes negative. The model successively incorporates (i) a distinction between species that need helpers for reproduction, survival or both, (ii) the existence of a migration rate accounting for dispersal, and (iii) stochastic mortality to simulate the effects of random catastrophic events. Our results suggest that the need for a minimum number of helpers increases the risk of extinction for obligate cooperative breeding species. The constraint imposed by this threshold is higher when helpers are needed for reproduction only or for both reproduction and survival. By driving them below this lower threshold, stochastic mortality of lower amplitude and/or lower frequency than for non-cooperative breeders may be sufficient to cause the extinction of obligate cooperative breeding groups. Migration may have a buffering effect only for groups where immigration is higher than emigration; otherwise (when immigrants from nearby groups are not available) it lowers the difference between actual group size and critical threshold, thereby constituting a higher constraint.

  12. Population Dynamics of Viral Inactivation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freeman, Krista; Li, Dong; Behrens, Manja; Streletzky, Kiril; Olsson, Ulf; Evilevitch, Alex

    We have investigated the population dynamics of viral inactivation in vitrousing time-resolved cryo electron microscopy combined with light and X-ray scattering techniques. Using bacteriophage λ as a model system for pressurized double-stranded DNA viruses, we found that virions incubated with their cell receptor eject their genome in a stochastic triggering process. The triggering of DNA ejection occurs in a non synchronized manner after the receptor addition, resulting in an exponential decay of the number of genome-filled viruses with time. We have explored the characteristic time constant of this triggering process at different temperatures, salt conditions, and packaged genome lengths. Furthermore, using the temperature dependence we determined an activation energy for DNA ejections. The dependences of the time constant and activation energy on internal DNA pressure, affected by salt conditions and encapsidated genome length, suggest that the triggering process is directly dependent on the conformational state of the encapsidated DNA. The results of this work provide insight into how the in vivo kinetics of the spread of viral infection are influenced by intra- and extra cellular environmental conditions. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE-1252522.

  13. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  14. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    PubMed

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems. PMID:26382443

  15. Population approaches to aquatic toxicology

    SciTech Connect

    Vinegar, M.B.

    1981-10-01

    Field studies in which age-specific survivorship and fecundity are measured can provide data for the validation of laboratory studies conducted to assess the effects of toxic materials on aquatic species. Comparison of the variability of age-specific survivorship and fecundity in polluted versus nonpolluted areas would provide insight into the consequences of pollution at the population level. Techniques which permit prediction of population structure and growth from age-specific survivorship and fecundity schedules are described. These techniques include the life table and the Leslie matrix. Examples of population studies in which these techniques may be applied are given.

  16. Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

    2013-03-21

    We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity.

  17. Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Erez

    2005-03-01

    Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

  18. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  19. Immigration-extinction dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerson, Baruch; Ovaskainen, Otso

    2013-07-01

    How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population become extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without immigration? Under what conditions can one justify the simple patch occupancy models, which ignore the population distribution and its dynamics in a patch, and treat a patch simply as either occupied or empty? We answer these questions by exactly solving a simple stochastic model obtained by adding a steady immigration to a variant of the Verhulst model: a prototypical model of an isolated stochastic population.

  20. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  1. Travelling waves in vole population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranta, Esa; Kaitala, Veijo

    1997-12-01

    Spatial self-organization patterns in population dynamics have been anticipated, but demonstrating their existence requires sampling over long periods of time at a range of sites. Voles cause severe economic damage and are therefore extensively monitored, providing a source of the required data. Using two long-term data sets we now report the existence of travelling waves in vole population numbers.

  2. Explaining "Noise" as Environmental Variations in Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Ginn, Timothy R.; Loge, Frank J.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2007-03-01

    The impacts of human activities on our own and other populations on the plant are making news at an alarming pace. Global warming, ocean and freshwater contamination and acidification, deforestation, habitat destruction and incursion, and in general a burgeoning human population are associated with a complete spectrum of changes to the dynamics of populations. Effects on songbirds, insects, coral reefs, ocean mammals, anadromous fishes, just to name a few, and humans, have been linked to human industry and population growth. The linkage, however, remains often ghostly and often tenuous at best, because of the difficulty in quantitatively combining ecological processes with environmental fate and transport processes. Establishing quantitative tools, that is, models, for the combined dynamics of populations and environmental chemical/thermal things is needed. This truly interdisciplinary challenge is briefly reviewed, and two approaches to integrating chemical and biological intermingling are addressed in the context of salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest.

  3. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics. PMID:26807744

  4. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  5. Population dynamics of defensive symbionts in aphids.

    PubMed

    Oliver, Kerry M; Campos, Jaime; Moran, Nancy A; Hunter, Martha S

    2008-02-01

    Vertically transmitted micro-organisms can increase in frequency in host populations by providing net benefits to hosts. While laboratory studies have identified diverse beneficial effects conferred by inherited symbionts of insects, they have not explicitly examined the population dynamics of mutualist symbiont infection within populations. In the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum, the inherited facultative symbiont, Hamiltonella defensa, provides protection against parasitism by the wasp, Aphidius ervi. Despite a high fidelity of vertical transmission and direct benefits of infection accruing to parasitized aphids, Hamiltonella remains only at intermediate frequencies in natural populations. Here, we conducted population cage experiments to monitor the dynamics of Hamiltonella and of another common A. pisum symbiont, Serratia symbiotica, in the presence and absence of parasitism. We also conducted fitness assays of Hamiltonella-infected aphids to search for costs to infection in the absence of parasitism. In the population cages, we found that the frequency of A. pisum infected with Hamiltonella increased dramatically after repeated exposure to parasitism by A. ervi, indicating that selection pressures from natural enemies can lead to the increase of particular inherited symbionts in insect populations. In our laboratory fitness assays, we did not detect a cost to infection with Hamiltonella, but in the population cages not exposed to parasitism, we found a significant decline in the frequency of both Hamiltonella and Serratia. The declining frequencies of Hamiltonella-infected aphids in population cages in the absence of parasitism indicate a probable cost to infection and may explain why Hamiltonella remains at intermediate frequencies in natural populations.

  6. Consequence of a sudden wind event on the dynamics of a coastal phytoplankton community: an insight into specific population growth rates using a single cell high frequency approach

    PubMed Central

    Dugenne, Mathilde; Thyssen, Melilotus; Nerini, David; Mante, Claude; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Garcia, Nicole; Garcia, Fabrice; Grégori, Gérald J.

    2014-01-01

    Phytoplankton is a key component in marine ecosystems. It is responsible for most of the marine primary production, particularly in eutrophic lagoons, where it frequently blooms. Because they are very sensitive to their environment, the dynamics of these microbial communities has to be observed over different time scales, however, assessment of short term variability is often out of reach of traditional monitoring methods. To overcome these limitations, we set up a Cytosense automated flow cytometer (Cytobuoy b.v.), designed for high frequency monitoring of phytoplankton composition, abundance, cell size, and pigment content, in one of the largest Mediterranean lagoons, the Berre lagoon (South-Eastern France). During October 2011, it recorded the cell optical properties of 12 groups of pico-, nano-, and microphytoplankton. Daily variations in the cluster optical properties were consistent with individual changes observed using microscopic imaging, during the cell cycle. We therefore used an adaptation of the size-structured matrix population model, developed by Sosik et al. (2003) to process the single cell analysis of the clusters and estimate the division rates of 2 dinoflagellate populations before, during, and after a strong wind event. The increase in the estimated in situ daily cluster growth rates suggest that physiological changes in the cells can prevail over the response of abundance. PMID:25309523

  7. Detection, Diversity, and Population Dynamics of Waterborne Phytophthora ramorum Populations.

    PubMed

    Eyre, C A; Garbelotto, M

    2015-01-01

    Sudden oak death, the tree disease caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has significant environmental and economic impacts on natural forests on the U.S. west coast, plantations in the United Kingdom, and in the worldwide nursery trade. Stream baiting is vital for monitoring and early detection of the pathogen in high-risk areas and is performed routinely; however, little is known about the nature of water-borne P. ramorum populations. Two drainages in an infested California forest were monitored intensively using stream-baiting for 2 years between 2009 and 2011. Pathogen presence was determined both by isolation and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from symptomatic bait leaves. Isolates were analyzed using simple sequence repeats to study population dynamics and genetic structure through time. Isolation was successful primarily only during spring conditions, while PCR extended the period of pathogen detection to most of the year. Water populations were extremely diverse, and changed between seasons and years. A few abundant genotypes dominated the water during conditions considered optimal for aerial populations, and matched those dominant in aerial populations. Temporal patterns of genotypic diversification and evenness were identical among aerial, soil, and water populations, indicating that all three substrates are part of the same epidemiological cycle, strongly influenced by rainfall and sporulation on leaves. However, there was structuring between substrates, likely arising due to reduced selection pressure in the water. Additionally, water populations showed wholesale mixing of genotypes without the evident spatial autocorrelation present in leaf and soil populations.

  8. Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2012-01-01

    The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

  9. Monitoring coyote population dynamics by genotyping faeces.

    PubMed

    Prugh, L R; Ritland, C E; Arthur, S M; Krebs, C J

    2005-04-01

    Reliable population estimates are necessary for effective conservation and management, and faecal genotyping has been used successfully to estimate the population size of several elusive mammalian species. Information such as changes in population size over time and survival rates, however, are often more useful for conservation biology than single population estimates. We evaluated the use of faecal genotyping as a tool for monitoring long-term population dynamics, using coyotes (Canis latrans) in the Alaska Range as a case study. We obtained 544 genotypes from 56 coyotes over 3 years (2000-2002). Tissue samples from all 15 radio-collared coyotes in our study area had > or = 1 matching faecal genotypes. We used flexible maximum-likelihood models to study coyote population dynamics, and we tested model performance against radio telemetry data. The staple prey of coyotes, snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), dramatically declined during this study, and the coyote population declined nearly two-fold with a 1(1/2)-year time lag. Survival rates declined the year after hares crashed but recovered the following year. We conclude that long-term monitoring of elusive species using faecal genotyping is feasible and can provide data that are useful for wildlife conservation and management. We highlight some drawbacks of standard open-population models, such as low precision and the requirement of discrete sampling intervals, and we suggest that the development of open models designed for continuously collected data would enhance the utility of faecal genotyping as a monitoring tool.

  10. Animal population dynamics: Identification of critical components

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Pikitch, E.K.

    1989-01-01

    There is a growing interest in the use of population dynamics models in environmental risk assessment and the promulgation of environmental regulatory policies. Unfortunately, because of species and areal differences in the physical and biotic influences on population dynamics, such models must almost inevitably be both complex and species- or site-specific. Given the emormous variety of species and sites of potential concern, this fact presents a problem; it simply is not possible to construct models for all species and circumstances. Therefore, it is useful, before building predictive population models, to discover what input parameters are of critical importance to the desired output. This information should enable the construction of simpler and more generalizable models. As a first step, it is useful to consider population models as composed to two, partly separable classes, one comprising the purely mechanical descriptors of dynamics from given demographic parameter values, and the other describing the modulation of the demographic parameters by environmental factors (changes in physical environment, species interactions, pathogens, xenobiotic chemicals). This division permits sensitivity analyses to be run on the first of these classes, providing guidance for subsequent model simplification. We here apply such a sensitivity analysis to network models of mammalian and avian population dynamics.

  11. Multispecies population dynamics of prebiotic compositional assemblies.

    PubMed

    Markovitch, Omer; Lancet, Doron

    2014-09-21

    Present life portrays a two-tier phenomenology: molecules compose supramolecular structures, such as cells or organisms, which in turn portray population behaviors, including selection, evolution and ecological dynamics. Prebiotic models have often focused on evolution in populations of self-replicating molecules, without explicitly invoking the intermediate molecular-to-supramolecular transition. Here, we explore a prebiotic model that allows one to relate parameters of chemical interaction networks within molecular assemblies to emergent population dynamics. We use the graded autocatalysis replication domain (GARD) model, which simulates the network dynamics within amphiphile-containing molecular assemblies, and exhibits quasi-stationary compositional states termed compotype species. These grow by catalyzed accretion, divide and propagate their compositional information to progeny in a replication-like manner. The model allows us to ask how molecular network parameters influence assembly evolution and population dynamics parameters. In 1000 computer simulations, each embodying different parameter set of the global chemical interaction network parameters, we observed a wide range of behaviors. These were analyzed by a multi species logistic model often used for analyzing population ecology (r-K or Lotka-Volterra competition model). We found that compotypes with a larger intrinsic molecular repertoire show a higher intrinsic growth (r) and lower carrying capacity (K), as well as lower replication fidelity. This supports a prebiotic scenario initiated by fast-replicating assemblies with a high molecular diversity, evolving into more faithful replicators with narrower molecular repertoires. PMID:24831416

  12. Irruptive population dynamics in Yellowstone pronghorn.

    PubMed

    White, P J; Bruggeman, Jason E; Garrott, Robert A

    2007-09-01

    Irruptive population dynamics appear to be widespread in large herbivore populations, but there are few empirical examples from long time series with small measurement error and minimal harvests. We analyzed an 89-year time series of counts and known removals for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in Yellowstone National Park of the western United States during 1918-2006 using a suite of density-dependent, density-independent, and irruptive models to determine if the population exhibited irruptive dynamics. Information-theoretic model comparison techniques strongly supported irruptive population dynamics (Leopold model) and density dependence during 1918-1946, with the growth rate slowing after counts exceeded 600 animals. Concerns about sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) degradation led to removals of >1100 pronghorn during 1947-1966, and counts decreased from approximately 700 to 150. The best models for this period (Gompertz, Ricker) suggested that culls replaced intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms. Contrary to expectations, the population did not exhibit enhanced demographic vigor soon after the termination of the harvest program, with counts remaining between 100 and 190 animals during 1967 1981. However, the population irrupted (Caughley model with a one-year lag) to a peak abundance of approximately 600 pronghorn during 1982-1991, with a slowing in growth rate as counts exceeded 500. Numbers crashed to 235 pronghorn during 1992-1995, perhaps because important food resources (e.g., sagebrush) on the winter range were severely diminished by high densities of browsing elk, mule deer, and pronghorn. Pronghorn numbers remained relatively constant during 1996-2006, at a level (196-235) lower than peak abundance, but higher than numbers following the release from culling. The dynamics of this population supported the paradigm that irruption is a fundamental pattern of growth in many populations of large herbivores with high fecundity and delayed density-dependent effects

  13. Sustainability of culture-driven population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ghirlanda, Stefano; Enquist, Magnus; Perc, Matjaz

    2010-05-01

    We consider models of the interactions between human population dynamics and cultural evolution, asking whether they predict sustainable or unsustainable patterns of growth. Phenomenological models predict either unsustainable population growth or stabilization in the near future. The latter prediction, however, is based on extrapolation of current demographic trends and does not take into account causal processes of demographic and cultural dynamics. Most existing causal models assume (or derive from simplified models of the economy) a positive feedback between cultural evolution and demographic growth, and predict unlimited growth in both culture and population. We augment these models taking into account that: (1) cultural transmission is not perfect, i.e., culture can be lost; (2) culture does not always promote population growth. We show that taking these factors into account can cause radically different model behavior, such as population extinction rather than stability, and extinction rather than growth. We conclude that all models agree that a population capable of maintaining a large amount of culture, including a powerful technology, runs a high risk of being unsustainable. We suggest that future work must address more explicitly both the dynamics of resource consumption and the cultural evolution of beliefs implicated in reproductive behavior (e.g., ideas about the preferred family size) and in resource use (e.g., environmentalist stances).

  14. A polyphasic approach to study the dynamics of microbial population of an organic wheat sourdough during its conversion to gluten-free sourdough.

    PubMed

    Lhomme, Emilie; Mezaize, Sandra; Ducasse, Maren Bonnand; Chiron, Hubert; Champomier-Vergès, Marie-Christine; Chaillou, Stéphane; Zagorec, Monique; Dousset, Xavier; Onno, Bernard

    2014-03-01

    To develop a method for organic gluten-free (GF) sourdough bread production, a long-term and original wheat sourdough was refreshed with GF flours. The dynamics of the sourdough microbiota during five months of back-slopping were analyzed by classical enumeration and molecular methods, including PCR-temporal temperature gel electrophoresis (PCR-TTGE), multiplex PCR, and pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The results showed that the yeast counts remained constant, although Saccharomyces cerevisiae, present in the initial wheat sourdough, was no longer detected in the GF sourdough, while lactic acid bacteria (LAB) counts increased consistently. In the first phase, which was aimed at obtaining a GF sourdough from wheat sourdough, Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis, L. plantarum, and L. spicheri were the main LAB species detected. During the second phase, aimed at maintaining the GF sourdough, the L. plantarum and L. spicheri populations decreased whereas L. sanfranciscensis persisted and L. sakei became the predominant species. Multiplex PCRs also revealed the presence of several L. sakei strains in the GF sourdough. In a search for the origin of the LAB species, PCR-TTGE was performed on the flour samples but only L. sanfranciscensis was detected, suggesting a flour origin for this typical sourdough species. Thus, while replacement of the wheat flour by GF flour influenced the sourdough microbiota, some of the original sourdough LAB and yeast species remained in the GF sourdough.

  15. A polyphasic approach to study the dynamics of microbial population of an organic wheat sourdough during its conversion to gluten-free sourdough.

    PubMed

    Lhomme, Emilie; Mezaize, Sandra; Ducasse, Maren Bonnand; Chiron, Hubert; Champomier-Vergès, Marie-Christine; Chaillou, Stéphane; Zagorec, Monique; Dousset, Xavier; Onno, Bernard

    2014-03-01

    To develop a method for organic gluten-free (GF) sourdough bread production, a long-term and original wheat sourdough was refreshed with GF flours. The dynamics of the sourdough microbiota during five months of back-slopping were analyzed by classical enumeration and molecular methods, including PCR-temporal temperature gel electrophoresis (PCR-TTGE), multiplex PCR, and pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The results showed that the yeast counts remained constant, although Saccharomyces cerevisiae, present in the initial wheat sourdough, was no longer detected in the GF sourdough, while lactic acid bacteria (LAB) counts increased consistently. In the first phase, which was aimed at obtaining a GF sourdough from wheat sourdough, Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis, L. plantarum, and L. spicheri were the main LAB species detected. During the second phase, aimed at maintaining the GF sourdough, the L. plantarum and L. spicheri populations decreased whereas L. sanfranciscensis persisted and L. sakei became the predominant species. Multiplex PCRs also revealed the presence of several L. sakei strains in the GF sourdough. In a search for the origin of the LAB species, PCR-TTGE was performed on the flour samples but only L. sanfranciscensis was detected, suggesting a flour origin for this typical sourdough species. Thus, while replacement of the wheat flour by GF flour influenced the sourdough microbiota, some of the original sourdough LAB and yeast species remained in the GF sourdough. PMID:25296441

  16. Extinction rate fragility in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Khasin, M; Dykman, M I

    2009-08-01

    Population extinction is of central interest for population dynamics. It may occur from a large rare fluctuation. We find that, in contrast to related large-fluctuation effects like noise-induced interstate switching, quite generally extinction rates in multipopulation systems display fragility, where the height of the effective barrier to be overcome in the fluctuation depends on the system parameters nonanalytically. We show that one of the best-known models of epidemiology, the susceptible-infectious-susceptible model, is fragile to total population fluctuations.

  17. Dispersive models describing mosquitoes’ population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamashita, W. M. S.; Takahashi, L. T.; Chapiro, G.

    2016-08-01

    The global incidences of dengue and, more recently, zica virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. Understanding this dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. This work is based on the study of nonlinear mathematical models dealing with the life cycle of the dengue mosquito using partial differential equations. We investigate the existence of traveling wave solutions using semi-analytical method combining dynamical systems techniques and numerical integration. Obtained solutions are validated through numerical simulations using finite difference schemes.

  18. The Population Health Approach in Historical Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Szreter, Simon

    2003-01-01

    The origin of the population health approach is an historic debate over the relationship between economic growth and human health. In Britain and France, the Industrial Revolution disrupted population health and stimulated pioneering epidemiological studies, informing the early preventive public health movement. A century-long process of political adjustment between the forces of liberal democracy and propertied interests ensued. The 20th-century welfare states resulted as complex political mechanisms for converting economic growth into enhanced population health. However, the rise of a “neoliberal” agenda, denigrating the role of government, has once again brought to the fore the importance of prevention and a population health approach to map and publicize the health impacts of this new phase of “global” economic growth. PMID:12604486

  19. Dynamics of Sequence -Discrete Bacterial Populations Inferred Using Metagenomes

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, Sarah; Bendall, Matthew; Kang, Dongwan; Froula, Jeff; Egan, Rob; Chan, Leong-Keat; Tringe, Susannah; McMahon, Katherine; Malmstrom, Rex

    2014-03-14

    From a multi-year metagenomic time series of two dissimilar Wisconsin lakes we have assembled dozens of genomes using a novel approach that bins contigs into distinct genome based on sequence composition, e.g. kmer frequencies, and contig coverage patterns at various times points. Next, we investigated how these genomes, which represent sequence-discrete bacterial populations, evolved over time and used the time series to discover the population dynamics. For example, we explored changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies as well as patterns of gene gain and loss in multiple populations. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in some populations during the course of this study, suggesting these populations may have experienced genome-wide selective sweeps. This represents the first direct, time-resolved observations of periodic selection in natural populations, a key process predicted by the ecotype model of bacterial diversification.

  20. Stability, complexity and robustness in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Demongeot, J; Hazgui, H; Ben Amor, H; Waku, J

    2014-09-01

    The problem of stability in population dynamics concerns many domains of application in demography, biology, mechanics and mathematics. The problem is highly generic and independent of the population considered (human, animals, molecules,…). We give in this paper some examples of population dynamics concerning nucleic acids interacting through direct nucleic binding with small or cyclic RNAs acting on mRNAs or tRNAs as translation factors or through protein complexes expressed by genes and linked to DNA as transcription factors. The networks made of these interactions between nucleic acids (considered respectively as edges and nodes of their interaction graph) are complex, but exhibit simple emergent asymptotic behaviours, when time tends to infinity, called attractors. We show that the quantity called attractor entropy plays a crucial role in the study of the stability and robustness of such genetic networks. PMID:25107273

  1. Dynamical inference of hidden biological populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luchinsky, D. G.; Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Millonas, M.; McClintock, P. V. E.

    2008-10-01

    Population fluctuations in a predator-prey system are analyzed for the case where the number of prey could be determined, subject to measurement noise, but the number of predators was unknown. The problem of how to infer the unmeasured predator dynamics, as well as the model parameters, is addressed. Two solutions are suggested. In the first of these, measurement noise and the dynamical noise in the equation for predator population are neglected; the problem is reduced to a one-dimensional case, and a Bayesian dynamical inference algorithm is employed to reconstruct the model parameters. In the second solution a full-scale Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to infer both the unknown predator trajectory, and also the model parameters, using the one-dimensional solution as an initial guess.

  2. A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea.

    PubMed

    Papworth, Danny J; Marini, Simone; Conversi, Alessandra

    2016-01-01

    Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this work, we have researched and developed a novel methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for distinguishing which drivers can influence species abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters used or on the underlying mathematical relationships among them. We have validated this methodology applying it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86 biological, hydrographical and climatic time series, ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation, to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011, during which period there was an ecological regime shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights the importance of considering both physical and trophic drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting that when there is availability of both data types, local drivers are more important. The results produced by the GP based procedure are consistent with the literature published to date, and validate the use of GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that this methodology holds promises for the highly non-linear field of ecology. PMID:27366910

  3. A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea

    PubMed Central

    Papworth, Danny J.; Marini, Simone; Conversi, Alessandra

    2016-01-01

    Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this work, we have researched and developed a novel methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for distinguishing which drivers can influence species abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters used or on the underlying mathematical relationships among them. We have validated this methodology applying it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86 biological, hydrographical and climatic time series, ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation, to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011, during which period there was an ecological regime shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights the importance of considering both physical and trophic drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting that when there is availability of both data types, local drivers are more important. The results produced by the GP based procedure are consistent with the literature published to date, and validate the use of GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that this methodology holds promises for the highly non-linear field of ecology. PMID:27366910

  4. Dynamics of newly established elk populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W.

    2007-01-01

    The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

  5. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    PubMed

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species.

  6. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    PubMed

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. PMID:27062059

  7. Population dynamics in non-homogeneous environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alards, Kim M. J.; Tesser, Francesca; Toschi, Federico

    2014-11-01

    For organisms living in aquatic ecosystems the presence of fluid transport can have a strong influence on the dynamics of populations and on evolution of species. In particular, displacements due to self-propulsion, summed up with turbulent dispersion at larger scales, strongly influence the local densities and thus population and genetic dynamics. Real marine environments are furthermore characterized by a high degree of non-homogeneities. In the case of population fronts propagating in ``fast'' turbulence, with respect to the population duplication time, the flow effect can be studied by replacing the microscopic diffusivity with an effective turbulent diffusivity. In the opposite case of ``slow'' turbulence the advection by the flow has to be considered locally. Here we employ numerical simulations to study the influence of non-homogeneities in the diffusion coefficient of reacting individuals of different species expanding in a 2 dimensional space. Moreover, to explore the influence of advection, we consider a population expanding in the presence of simple velocity fields like cellular flows. The output is analyzed in terms of front roughness, front shape, propagation speed and, concerning the genetics, by means of heterozygosity and local and global extinction probabilities.

  8. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t < t1 = κb) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t_1\\lt t\\lt t_2\\propto \\kappa_a and for which θ0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  9. Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  10. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  11. Metamodels for transdisciplinary analysis of wildlife population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lacy, Robert C; Miller, Philip S; Nyhus, Philip J; Pollak, J P; Raboy, Becky E; Zeigler, Sara L

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological - physical - human systems. We describe a "metamodel" approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples - one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics - to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  12. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  13. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  14. Plant Pathogen Population Dynamics in Potato Fields

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, G. D.; Stevenson, W. R.; MacGuidwin, A. E.; Kelling, K. A.; Binning, L. K.; Zhu, J.

    2002-01-01

    Modern technologies incorporating Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Global Positioning Systems (GPS), remote sensing, and geostatistics provide unique opportunities to advance ecological understanding of pests across a landscape. Increased knowledge of the population dynamics of plant pathogens will promote management strategies, such as site-specific management, and cultural practices minimizing the introduction and impact of plant pathogens. The population dynamics of Alternaria solani, Verticillium dahliae, and Pratylenchus penetrans were investigated in commercial potato fields. A 0.5-ha diamond grid-sampling scheme was georeferenced, and all disease ratings and nematode samples were taken at these grid points. Percent disease severity was rated weekly, and P. penetrans densities were quantified 4 weeks after potato emergence. Spatial statistics and interpolation methods were used to identify the spatial distribution and population dynamics of each pathogen. Interpolated maps and aerial imagery identified A. solani intra-season progression across the fields as the potato crop matured. Late-season nitrogen application reduced A. solani severity. The spatial distributions of V. dahliae and P. penetrans were spatially correlated. PMID:19265932

  15. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  16. Effect of Migration on Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magdoń, Maria S.

    Computer studies of evolution in migrating population are presented. The model is based on the Penna model. Migration for better living conditions does influence population dynamics in different locations. Examples of different scenarios of preferences to live in bigger or smaller populations (or environmental capacity, or living space available) are discussed. In the limiting case of low migration intensity, each location evolves independently according to its local rules and conditions, as expected. With increasing migration, the population distribution between locations changes, including the critical behavior of extinction of population for some locations for a specific set of the rules. Then, the deserted location may become populated again if the migration is still increasing as result of a pressure to move. The present version is devoted to the migration controlled exclusively by environmental factors, yet the model is primarily designed to describe both inherited mutations on environmental factors and can be used to study the effect of different races mixing, or recovery of environmental capacity of the fields when chasing 2 flocks of geese in a cyclic manner across 3 fields.

  17. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.

    PubMed

    Deville, Pierre; Linard, Catherine; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R; Gaughan, Andrea E; Blondel, Vincent D; Tatem, Andrew J

    2014-11-11

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography.

  18. Population clocks: motor timing with neural dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Buonomano, Dean V.; Laje, Rodrigo

    2010-01-01

    An understanding of sensory and motor processing will require elucidation of the mechanisms by which the brain tells time. Open questions relate to whether timing relies on dedicated or intrinsic mechanisms and whether distinct mechanisms underlie timing across scales and modalities. Although experimental and theoretical studies support the notion that neural circuits are intrinsically capable of sensory timing on short scales, few general models of motor timing have been proposed. For one class of models, population clocks, it is proposed that time is encoded in the time-varying patterns of activity of a population of neurons. We argue that population clocks emerge from the internal dynamics of recurrently connected networks, are biologically realistic and account for many aspects of motor timing. PMID:20889368

  19. Algebraic moment closure for population dynamics on discrete structures.

    PubMed

    House, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Moment closure on general discrete structures often requires one of the following: (i) an absence of short-closed loops (zero clustering); (ii) existence of a spatial scale; (iii) ad hoc assumptions. Algebraic methods are presented to avoid the use of such assumptions for populations based on clumps and are applied to both SIR and macroparasite disease dynamics. One approach involves a series of approximations that can be derived systematically, and another is exact and based on Lie algebraic methods.

  20. Genomic Approaches with Natural Fish Populations

    PubMed Central

    Oleksiak, M. F.

    2011-01-01

    Natural populations versus inbred stocks provide a much richer resource for identifying the effects of nucleotide substitutions because natural populations have greater polymorphism. Additionally, natural populations offer an advantage over most common research organisms because they are subject to natural selection, and analyses of these adaptations can be used to identify biologically important changes. Among fishes, these analyses are enhanced by having a wide diversity of species (> 28,000 species, more than any other group of vertebrates) living in a huge range of environments (from below freezing to > 46° C, in fresh water to salinities > 40 ppt.). Moreover, fishes exhibit many different life history and reproductive strategies and have many different phenotypes and social structures. While fishes provide numerous advantages over other vertebrate models, there is still a dearth of available genomic tools for fishes. Fish make up approximately half of all known vertebrate species, yet less than 0.2% of fish species have significant genomic resources. Nonetheless, genomic approaches with fishes have provided some of the first measures of individual variation in gene expression and insights in to environmental and ecological adaptations. Thus, genomic approaches with natural fish populations have the potential to revolutionize fundamental studies of diverse fish species that offer myriad ecological and evolutionary questions. PMID:20409163

  1. Applying Dynamic Evaluation Approach in Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grammatikopoulos, V.; Koustelios, A.; Tsigilis, N.; Theodorakis, Y.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to implement a newly proposed evaluation method (Dimitropoulos, 1999), that is, the dynamic evaluation approach in the field of education. The dynamic approach was applied in order to evaluate the Olympic Education Program in Greece. The results of the present field study were encouraging. Dynamic evaluation…

  2. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

    PubMed Central

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

    2014-01-01

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

  3. Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

    2002-01-01

    We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

  4. Population Code Dynamics in Categorical Perception

    PubMed Central

    Tajima, Chihiro I.; Tajima, Satohiro; Koida, Kowa; Komatsu, Hidehiko; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Suzuki, Hideyuki

    2016-01-01

    Categorical perception is a ubiquitous function in sensory information processing, and is reported to have important influences on the recognition of presented and/or memorized stimuli. However, such complex interactions among categorical perception and other aspects of sensory processing have not been explained well in a unified manner. Here, we propose a recurrent neural network model to process categorical information of stimuli, which approximately realizes a hierarchical Bayesian estimation on stimuli. The model accounts for a wide variety of neurophysiological and cognitive phenomena in a consistent framework. In particular, the reported complexity of categorical effects, including (i) task-dependent modulation of neural response, (ii) clustering of neural population representation, (iii) temporal evolution of perceptual color memory, and (iv) a non-uniform discrimination threshold, are explained as different aspects of a single model. Moreover, we directly examine key model behaviors in the monkey visual cortex by analyzing neural population dynamics during categorization and discrimination of color stimuli. We find that the categorical task causes temporally-evolving biases in the neuronal population representations toward the focal colors, which supports the proposed model. These results suggest that categorical perception can be achieved by recurrent neural dynamics that approximates optimal probabilistic inference in the changing environment. PMID:26935275

  5. Optimal birth control of population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Chan, W L; Guo, B Z

    1989-11-01

    The authors studied optimal birth control policies for an age-structured population of McKendrick type which is a distributed parameter system involving 1st order partial differential equations with nonlocal bilinear boundary control. The functional analytic approach of Dubovitskii and Milyutin is adopted in the investigation. Maximum principles for problems with a free end condition and fixed final horizon are developed, and the time optimal control problems, the problem with target sets, and infinite planning horizon case are investigated.

  6. Assessing the dynamics of wild populations

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Lotka's equations summarizing population dynamics can be approximated by functional models of the survivorship and reproductive curves, incorporating three stages of survival and reproduction, respectively. An abbreviated form uses a single reproductive parameter and two survival values. Survivorship and reproductive curves were fitted to data on northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), domestic and feral sheep, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), free-ranging horses, and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). Data for 10 species suggest a useful relationship between senescence parameters. A bias due to senescence may lead to serious underestimation of survival rates. Observed annual rates of increase of 18-20% for feral horses, 16% for southern fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), and 60% for white-tailed deer are compatible with observed population parameters. 43 references, 11 figures, 3 tables.

  7. Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

    2002-03-01

    We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

  8. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

    PubMed Central

    Deville, Pierre; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Blondel, Vincent D.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

  9. Population health diagnosis with an ecohealth approach

    PubMed Central

    Arenas-Monreal, Luz; Cortez-Lugo, Marlene; Parada-Toro, Irene; Pacheco-Magaña, Lilian E; Magaña-Valladares, Laura

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To analyze the characteristics of health diagnosis according to the ecohealth approach in rural and urban communities in Mexico. METHODS Health diagnosis were conducted in La Nopalera, from December 2007 to October 2008, and in Atlihuayan, from December 2010 to October 2011. The research was based on three principles of the ecohealth approach: transdisciplinarity, community participation, gender and equity. To collect information, a joint methodology and several techniques were used to stimulate the participation of inhabitants. The diagnostic exercise was carried out in five phases that went from collecting information to prioritization of problems. RESULTS The constitution of the transdisciplinary team, as well as the participation of the population and the principle of gender/equity were differentials between the communities. In the rural community, the active participation of inhabitants and authorities was achieved and the principles of transdisciplinarity and gender/equity were incorporated. CONCLUSIONS With all the difficulties that entails the boost in participation, the incorporation of gender/equity and transdisciplinarity in health diagnosis allowed a holistic public health approach closer to the needs of the population. PMID:26538099

  10. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    PubMed

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

  11. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  12. [Approach to hypertension in the older population].

    PubMed

    Roca, Francisco Valls

    2014-05-01

    Hypertension is one of the most frequent causes for seeking primary care attention and its prevalence increases with age, affecting 68% of people older than 60 years. Data indicate that the prevalence of hypertense individuals older than 65 years has increased from 48% in 2002 to 58% in 2010. High blood pressure is related to 1 out of every 2 deaths from cardiovascular causes in the Spanish population ≥ 50 years and causes 13.5% of premature deaths worldwide, both in persons with hypertension and in those with high-normal blood pressure. Although few clinical trials have been performed in the older population, especially in the very old, there is evidence that diastolic and systolic blood pressure control reduces cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in older hypertense individuals. Consequently, the updates of the various clinical practice guidelines continue to include among their objectives-with some nuances-good blood pressure control in this population group. The present article reviews new evidence on the approach to hypertension in the elderly, which has modified some of the recommendations made in the clinical practice guidelines of several scientific societies.

  13. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

    2012-11-01

    Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  14. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  15. Long-Term Patterns in the Population Dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and Cyanobacteria in a Shallow Reservoir: A Self-Organising Map (SOM) Approach.

    PubMed

    Wojtal-Frankiewicz, Adrianna; Kruk, Andrzej; Frankiewicz, Piotr; Oleksińska, Zuzanna; Izydorczyk, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    The recognition of long-term patterns in the seasonal dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and cyanobacteria is dependent upon their interactions, the water temperature and the hydrological conditions, which were all investigated between 1999 and 2008 in the lowland Sulejow Reservoir. The biomass of cyanobacteria, densities of D. longispina and L. kindtii, concentration of chlorophyll a and water temperature were assessed weekly from April to October at three sampling stations along the longitudinal reservoir axis. The retention time was calculated using data on the actual water inflow and reservoir volume. A self-organising map (SOM) was used due to high interannual variability in the studied parameters and their often non-linear relationships. Classification of the SOM output neurons into three clusters that grouped the sampling terms with similar biotic states allowed identification of the crucial abiotic factors responsible for the seasonal sequence of events: cluster CL-ExSp (extreme/spring) corresponded to hydrologically unstable cold periods (mostly spring) with extreme values and highly variable abiotic factors, which made abiotic control of the biota dominant; cluster CL-StSm (stable/summer) was associated with ordinary late spring and summer and was characterised by stable non-extreme abiotic conditions, which made biotic interactions more important; and the cluster CL-ExSm (extreme/summer), was associated with late spring/summer and characterised by thermal or hydrological extremes, which weakened the role of biotic factors. The significance of the differences between the SOM sub-clusters was verified by Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunn tests. The importance of the temperature and hydrological regimes as the key plankton-regulating factors in the dam reservoir, as shown by the SOM, was confirmed by the results of canonical correlation analyses (CCA) of each cluster. The demonstrated significance of hydrology in seasonal plankton dynamics

  16. Long-Term Patterns in the Population Dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and Cyanobacteria in a Shallow Reservoir: A Self-Organising Map (SOM) Approach

    PubMed Central

    Wojtal-Frankiewicz, Adrianna; Kruk, Andrzej; Frankiewicz, Piotr; Oleksińska, Zuzanna; Izydorczyk, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    The recognition of long-term patterns in the seasonal dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and cyanobacteria is dependent upon their interactions, the water temperature and the hydrological conditions, which were all investigated between 1999 and 2008 in the lowland Sulejow Reservoir. The biomass of cyanobacteria, densities of D. longispina and L. kindtii, concentration of chlorophyll a and water temperature were assessed weekly from April to October at three sampling stations along the longitudinal reservoir axis. The retention time was calculated using data on the actual water inflow and reservoir volume. A self-organising map (SOM) was used due to high interannual variability in the studied parameters and their often non-linear relationships. Classification of the SOM output neurons into three clusters that grouped the sampling terms with similar biotic states allowed identification of the crucial abiotic factors responsible for the seasonal sequence of events: cluster CL-ExSp (extreme/spring) corresponded to hydrologically unstable cold periods (mostly spring) with extreme values and highly variable abiotic factors, which made abiotic control of the biota dominant; cluster CL-StSm (stable/summer) was associated with ordinary late spring and summer and was characterised by stable non-extreme abiotic conditions, which made biotic interactions more important; and the cluster CL-ExSm (extreme/summer), was associated with late spring/summer and characterised by thermal or hydrological extremes, which weakened the role of biotic factors. The significance of the differences between the SOM sub-clusters was verified by Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunn tests. The importance of the temperature and hydrological regimes as the key plankton-regulating factors in the dam reservoir, as shown by the SOM, was confirmed by the results of canonical correlation analyses (CCA) of each cluster. The demonstrated significance of hydrology in seasonal plankton dynamics

  17. Long-Term Patterns in the Population Dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and Cyanobacteria in a Shallow Reservoir: A Self-Organising Map (SOM) Approach.

    PubMed

    Wojtal-Frankiewicz, Adrianna; Kruk, Andrzej; Frankiewicz, Piotr; Oleksińska, Zuzanna; Izydorczyk, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    The recognition of long-term patterns in the seasonal dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and cyanobacteria is dependent upon their interactions, the water temperature and the hydrological conditions, which were all investigated between 1999 and 2008 in the lowland Sulejow Reservoir. The biomass of cyanobacteria, densities of D. longispina and L. kindtii, concentration of chlorophyll a and water temperature were assessed weekly from April to October at three sampling stations along the longitudinal reservoir axis. The retention time was calculated using data on the actual water inflow and reservoir volume. A self-organising map (SOM) was used due to high interannual variability in the studied parameters and their often non-linear relationships. Classification of the SOM output neurons into three clusters that grouped the sampling terms with similar biotic states allowed identification of the crucial abiotic factors responsible for the seasonal sequence of events: cluster CL-ExSp (extreme/spring) corresponded to hydrologically unstable cold periods (mostly spring) with extreme values and highly variable abiotic factors, which made abiotic control of the biota dominant; cluster CL-StSm (stable/summer) was associated with ordinary late spring and summer and was characterised by stable non-extreme abiotic conditions, which made biotic interactions more important; and the cluster CL-ExSm (extreme/summer), was associated with late spring/summer and characterised by thermal or hydrological extremes, which weakened the role of biotic factors. The significance of the differences between the SOM sub-clusters was verified by Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunn tests. The importance of the temperature and hydrological regimes as the key plankton-regulating factors in the dam reservoir, as shown by the SOM, was confirmed by the results of canonical correlation analyses (CCA) of each cluster. The demonstrated significance of hydrology in seasonal plankton dynamics

  18. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  19. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling.

    PubMed

    Karanth, K Ullas; Nichols, James D; Kumar, N Samba; Hines, James E

    2006-11-01

    that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

  20. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

  1. Demographic dynamics and kinship in anthropological populations

    PubMed Central

    Hammel, E. A.

    2005-01-01

    Changes in fertility and mortality affect the size of surviving sibling sets and thus numbers of surviving kin. Because the genealogical generations specifying kinship relations are not temporal cohorts and most plausible demographic changes in anthropological populations are period shocks, the effect of such shocks on kin counts are complex. Shocks increasing fertility or decreasing mortality produce larger numbers of kin per ego and decrease the inequality of the distribution of kin and vice versa. Effects are more diffuse at more distant collateral ranges. Effects are stronger the more intense the shock and the longer its duration. Kinship distributions return to their initial state after the shock and as the original age structure of the population is ergodically reattained. Alternating shocks produce more complex patterns. Implications of these outcomes are that opportunities for political networking and consolidation by means of kinship are altered by demographic instabilities, as are the dynamics of kin selection. This analysis is limited for simplicity to unilineal agnatic reckoning of kin. PMID:15677714

  2. When Should Harvest Evolution Matter to Population Dynamics?

    PubMed

    Nusslé, Sébastien; Hendry, Andrew P; Carlson, Stephanie M

    2016-07-01

    The potential for evolution to influence fishery sustainability remains a controversial topic. We highlight new modeling research from Dunlop et al. that explores when and how fisheries-induced evolution matters for population dynamics, while also emphasizing transient dynamics in population growth and life history-dependent responses that influence population stability and resiliency. PMID:27095380

  3. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  4. Environmental colour affects aspects of single-species population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Petchey, O L

    2000-04-22

    Single-species populations of ciliates (Colpidium and Paramecium) experienced constant temperature or white or reddened temperature fluctuations in aquatic microcosms in order to test three hypotheses about how environmental colour influences population dynamics. (i) Models predict that the colour of population dynamics is tinged by the colour of the environmental variability. However, environmental colour had no effect on the colour of population dynamics. All population dynamics in this experiment were reddened, regardless of environmental colour. (ii) Models predict that populations will track reddened environmental variability more closely than white environmental variability and that populations with a higher intrinsic growth rate (r) will track environmental variability more closely than populations with a low r. The experimental populations behaved as predicted. (iii) Models predict that population variability is determined by interaction between r and the environmental variability. The experimental populations behaved as predicted. These results show that (i) reddened population dynamics may need no special explanation, such as reddened environments, spatial subdivision or interspecific interactions, and (ii) and (iii) that population dynamics are sensitive to environmental colour, in agreement with population models. Correct specification of the colour of the environmental variability in models is required for accurate predictions. Further work is needed to study the effects of environmental colour on communities and ecosystems.

  5. EFFECTS OF CHRONIC STRESS ON WILDLIFE POPULATIONS: A POPULATION MODELING APPROACH AND CASE STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This chapter describes a matrix modeling approach to characterize and project risks to wildlife populations subject to chronic stress. Population matrix modeling was used to estimate effects of one class of environmental contaminants, dioxin-like compounds (DLCs), to populations ...

  6. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  7. Managing weeds with a population dynamics approach

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    No-till cropping systems are increasing land productivity. A critical aspect of no-till is controlling weeds. Herbicides are a crucial tool for weed management, but weed resistance is decreasing control efficacy and increasing input costs. Scientists and producers are seeking a broader perspectiv...

  8. Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

    PubMed

    Darling, Aaron E; Miklós, István; Ragan, Mark A

    2008-01-01

    characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes. PMID:18650965

  9. Dynamics of Genome Rearrangement in Bacterial Populations

    PubMed Central

    Darling, Aaron E.; Miklós, István; Ragan, Mark A.

    2008-01-01

    first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes. PMID:18650965

  10. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    PubMed

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  11. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    PubMed

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  12. Physical science: A dynamic approach

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, R.T.

    1986-01-01

    A partial table of contents is: Early concepts of nature. The rebirth of science. Energy, work, and power. Relativity. The atom. The periodic nature of elements. Chemical energy. The dynamic Earth. The solar system. Stars and nebulae. Extraterrestrial life. The author presents an introduction to physical science and the spirit of scientific inquiry through a historical survey of scientific thought. Specific forces, processes, energies and phenomena are outlined. Various tables, illustrations and questions accompany the text.

  13. Pathogen population dynamics in agricultural landscapes: the Ddal modelling framework.

    PubMed

    Papaïx, Julien; Adamczyk-Chauvat, Katarzyna; Bouvier, Annie; Kiêu, Kiên; Touzeau, Suzanne; Lannou, Christian; Monod, Hervé

    2014-10-01

    Modelling processes that occur at the landscape scale is gaining more and more attention from theoretical ecologists to agricultural managers. Most of the approaches found in the literature lack applicability for managers or, on the opposite, lack a sound theoretical basis. Based on the metapopulation concept, we propose here a modelling approach for landscape epidemiology that takes advantage of theoretical results developed in the metapopulation context while considering realistic landscapes structures. A landscape simulator makes it possible to represent both the field pattern and the spatial distribution of crops. The pathogen population dynamics are then described through a matrix population model both stage- and space-structured. In addition to a classical invasion analysis we present a stochastic simulation experiment and provide a complete framework for performing a sensitivity analysis integrating the landscape as an input factor. We illustrate our approach using an example to evaluate whether the agricultural landscape composition and structure may prevent and mitigate the development of an epidemic. Although designed for a fungal foliar disease, our modelling approach is easily adaptable to other organisms.

  14. Creative-Dynamics Approach To Neural Intelligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail A.

    1992-01-01

    Paper discusses approach to mathematical modeling of artificial neural networks exhibiting complicated behaviors reminiscent of creativity and intelligence of biological neural networks. Neural network treated as non-Lipschitzian dynamical system - as described in "Non-Lipschitzian Dynamics For Modeling Neural Networks" (NPO-17814). System serves as tool for modeling of temporal-pattern memories and recognition of complicated spatial patterns.

  15. Predicting shifts in dynamics of cannibalistic field populations using individual-based models.

    PubMed

    Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M; Bertolo, Andrea

    2004-12-01

    The occurrence of qualitative shifts in population dynamical regimes has long been the focus of population biologists. Nonlinear ecological models predict that these shifts in dynamical regimes may occur as a result of parameter shifts, but unambiguous empirical evidence is largely restricted to laboratory populations. We used an individual-based modelling approach to predict dynamical shifts in field fish populations where the capacity to cannibalize differed between species. Model-generated individual growth trajectories that reflect different population dynamics were confronted with empirically observed growth trajectories, showing that our ordering and quantitative estimates of the different cannibalistic species in terms of life-history characteristics led to correct qualitative predictions of their dynamics. PMID:15590600

  16. Approaches for modeling magnetic nanoparticle dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Reeves, Daniel B; Weaver, John B

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic nanoparticles are useful biological probes as well as therapeutic agents. There have been several approaches used to model nanoparticle magnetization dynamics for both Brownian as well as Néel rotation. The magnetizations are often of interest and can be compared with experimental results. Here we summarize these approaches including the Stoner-Wohlfarth approach, and stochastic approaches including thermal fluctuations. Non-equilibrium related temperature effects can be described by a distribution function approach (Fokker-Planck equation) or a stochastic differential equation (Langevin equation). Approximate models in several regimes can be derived from these general approaches to simplify implementation. PMID:25271360

  17. Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data.

    PubMed

    Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R

    2016-02-01

    Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes. PMID:27145611

  18. Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data.

    PubMed

    Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R

    2016-02-01

    Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes.

  19. Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knight, Richard R.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Data on the population of grizzly bears in the environs of Yellowstone National Park suggest that the population has not recovered from the reductions following closure of garbage dumps in 1970 and 1971, and may continue to decline. A computer simulation model indicates that the risk of extirpation over the next 30 yr is small, if the present population parameters continue to prevail. A review and further analysis of the available data brings out the importance of enhancing adult female survival if the population is to recover, and assesses various research needs. In particular, a reliable index of population trend is needed to augment available data on the population.

  20. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline.

  1. An Ecological Approach to Learning Dynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Normak, Peeter; Pata, Kai; Kaipainen, Mauri

    2012-01-01

    New approaches to emergent learner-directed learning design can be strengthened with a theoretical framework that considers learning as a dynamic process. We propose an approach that models a learning process using a set of spatial concepts: learning space, position of a learner, niche, perspective, step, path, direction of a step and step…

  2. Long-term effective population size dynamics of an intensively monitored vertebrate population.

    PubMed

    Mueller, A-K; Chakarov, N; Krüger, O; Hoffman, J I

    2016-10-01

    Long-term genetic data from intensively monitored natural populations are important for understanding how effective population sizes (Ne) can vary over time. We therefore genotyped 1622 common buzzard (Buteo buteo) chicks sampled over 12 consecutive years (2002-2013 inclusive) at 15 microsatellite loci. This data set allowed us to both compare single-sample with temporal approaches and explore temporal patterns in the effective number of parents that produced each cohort in relation to the observed population dynamics. We found reasonable consistency between linkage disequilibrium-based single-sample and temporal estimators, particularly during the latter half of the study, but no clear relationship between annual Ne estimates () and census sizes. We also documented a 14-fold increase in between 2008 and 2011, a period during which the census size doubled, probably reflecting a combination of higher adult survival and immigration from further afield. Our study thus reveals appreciable temporal heterogeneity in the effective population size of a natural vertebrate population, confirms the need for long-term studies and cautions against drawing conclusions from a single sample. PMID:27553455

  3. Consequences of parental care on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira, S. Moss

    1999-12-01

    We review the results obtained using the Penna model for biological ageing (T.J.P. Penna, J. Stat. Phys. 78 (1995) 1629) when different strategies of parental care are introduced into evolving populations. These results concern to: longevity of semelparous populations; self-organization of female menopause; the spatial distribution of the populations and finally, sexual fidelity.

  4. Experimental evidence of antiphase population dynamics in lasers

    SciTech Connect

    Cabrera, Eduardo; Calderon, Oscar G.; Guerra, J.M.

    2005-10-15

    We report a direct experimental observation of antiphase oscillations in population dynamics in lasers. We show that these population oscillations are intrinsically related to the well-known antiphase polarization dynamics, i.e., the antiphase oscillations of two orthogonal polarization laser field states. We have used a class B Nd:YAG (yttrium aluminum garnet) laser.

  5. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ronald D.; Lee, Sang-Hyop

    2015-01-01

    Upward intergenerational flows – from the working ages to old age – are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages – the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are

  6. Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears

    SciTech Connect

    Knight, R.R.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-04-01

    Data on the population of grizzly bears in the environs of Yellowstone National Park suggest that the population has not recovered from the reductions following closure of garbage dumps in 1970 and 1971, and may continue to decline. A computer simulation model indicates that the risk of extirpation over the next 30 yr is small, if the present population parameters continue to prevail. A review an further analysis of the available data brings out the importance of enhancing adult female survival if the population is to recover, and assesses various research needs. In particular, a reliable index of population trend is needed to augment available data on the population. 12 references, 9 figures, 6 tables.

  7. [The effect of the new technological revolution on population dynamics].

    PubMed

    Wu, K

    1985-01-29

    The impact of modernization on population dynamics in China is examined. The author notes that the industrialization process involves the concentration of the population in urban areas and the mechanization of agriculture. The need to redistribute the urban population from major urban areas to smaller towns is noted.

  8. Introducing Dynamic Analysis Using Malthus's Principle of Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pingle, Mark

    2003-01-01

    Declares the use of dynamic models is increasing in macroeconomics. Explains how to introduce dynamic models to students whose technical skills are modest or varied. Chooses Malthus's Principle of Population as a natural context for introducing dynamic analysis because it provides a method for reviewing the mathematical tools and theoretical…

  9. Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ranta, E; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Laakso, J

    2000-09-22

    Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view. We followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag -1) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This finding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated by the external noise.

  10. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  11. When stable-stage equilibrium is unlikely: integrating transient population dynamics improves asymptotic methods

    PubMed Central

    Tremblay, Raymond L.; Raventos, Josep; Ackerman, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Evaluation of population projection matrices (PPMs) that are focused on asymptotically based properties of populations is a commonly used approach to evaluate projected dynamics of managed populations. Recently, a set of tools for evaluating the properties of transient dynamics has been expanded to evaluate PPMs and to consider the dynamics of populations prior to attaining the stable-stage distribution, a state that may never be achieved in disturbed or otherwise ephemeral habitats or persistently small populations. This study re-evaluates data for a tropical orchid and examines the value of including such analyses in an integrative approach. Methods Six small populations of Lepanthes rubripetala were used as a model system and the R software package popdemo was used to produce estimates of the indices for the asymptotic growth rate (lambda), sensitivities, reactivity, first-time step attenuation, maximum amplification, maximum attenuation, maximal inertia and maximal attenuation. The response in lambda to perturbations of demographic parameters using transfer functions and multiple perturbations on growth, stasis and fecundity were also determined. The results were compared with previously published asymptotic indices. Key Results It was found that combining asymptotic and transient dynamics expands the understanding of possible population changes. Comparison of the predicted density from reactivity and first-time step attenuation with the observed change in population size in two orchid populations showed that the observed density was within the predicted range. However, transfer function analysis suggests that the traditional approach of measuring perturbation of growth rates and persistence (inertia) may be misleading and is likely to result in erroneous management decisions. Conclusions Based on the results, an integrative approach is recommended using traditional PPMs (asymptotic processes) with an evaluation of the diversity of dynamics

  12. Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H.; Moore, Kara A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

    2016-01-01

    Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species’ range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species’ response to climate change but also emphasise several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches

  13. Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

    PubMed

    Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

    2016-08-01

    Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches

  14. Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

  15. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

  16. Dynamical Systems in Psychology: Linguistic Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sulis, William

    Major goals for psychoanalysis and psychology are the description, analysis, prediction, and control of behaviour. Natural language has long provided the medium for the formulation of our theoretical understanding of behavior. But with the advent of nonlinear dynamics, a new language has appeared which offers promise to provide a quantitative theory of behaviour. In this paper, some of the limitations of natural and formal languages are discussed. Several approaches to understanding the links between natural and formal languages, as applied to the study of behavior, are discussed. These include symbolic dynamics, Moore's generalized shifts, Crutchfield's ɛ machines, and dynamical automata.

  17. Local extinction synchronizes population dynamics in spatial networks.

    PubMed

    Matter, Stephen F; Roland, Jens

    2010-03-01

    Spatial population theory predicts that synchrony in the dynamics of local populations should decrease as dispersal among populations decreases. Thus, it would be expected that the extinction of local populations and the attendant loss of immigrants to surrounding populations would reduce synchrony. We tested this hypothesis through a large-scale experiment, simulation of the experimental system and general models. Experimental removal of two adjacent subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus within a network consisting of 15 other local populations resulted in a decrease in immigration to surrounding populations that was proportional to their connectivity to the removal populations. These populations also showed a significant increase in synchrony during population removal. The spatial extent of the synchrony showed good agreement with the predicted loss of immigrants owing to the removals. Simulation of the Parnassius system showed a similar short-term result and also indicated that permanent loss of populations produces structural changes increasing synchrony. General models indicate that an increase in synchrony following extinction occurs when populations undergoing extinction have different carrying capacities than surrounding populations. The result is not owing to biased migration per se, but rather is because of the number of immigrants relative to the carrying capacity. Synchrony following extinction should be most common for patchy populations, but can occur in any situation where carrying capacities differ. Overall, our results indicate that local extinction can create a positive feedback for extinction risk, increasing the probability of extinction for population networks by synchronizing their dynamics.

  18. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  19. Critical approaches to the population question. An African perspective.

    PubMed

    Nnoli, O

    1980-02-01

    The non-Marxist, or neo-Malthusian, approach to the study of population problems is criticized, with particular reference to the situation in Africa. An alternative Marxist approach is proposed in which the solution to population problems is sought either in revolution or radical improvements in social welfare involving the maximum egalitarian distribution of the benefits of social and economic development. PMID:12265977

  20. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    PubMed Central

    Hines, Ronald N.; Sargent, Dana; Autrup, Herman; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Brent, Robert L.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A.; Juberg, Daland R.; Laurent, Christian; Luebke, Robert; Olejniczak, Klaus; Portier, Christopher J.; Slikker, William

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a “tool chest” of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of the pediatric population. The Health and Environmental Sciences Institute Subcommittee on Risk Assessment of Sensitive Populations evaluated key references in the area of pediatric risk to identify a spectrum of methodological approaches. These approaches are considered in this article for their potential to be extrapolated for the identification and assessment of other sensitive populations. Recommendations as to future research needs and/or alternate methodological considerations are also made. PMID:19770482

  1. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  2. Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1978-01-01

    The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

  3. Building dynamic population graph for accurate correspondence detection.

    PubMed

    Du, Shaoyi; Guo, Yanrong; Sanroma, Gerard; Ni, Dong; Wu, Guorong; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-12-01

    In medical imaging studies, there is an increasing trend for discovering the intrinsic anatomical difference across individual subjects in a dataset, such as hand images for skeletal bone age estimation. Pair-wise matching is often used to detect correspondences between each individual subject and a pre-selected model image with manually-placed landmarks. However, the large anatomical variability across individual subjects can easily compromise such pair-wise matching step. In this paper, we present a new framework to simultaneously detect correspondences among a population of individual subjects, by propagating all manually-placed landmarks from a small set of model images through a dynamically constructed image graph. Specifically, we first establish graph links between models and individual subjects according to pair-wise shape similarity (called as forward step). Next, we detect correspondences for the individual subjects with direct links to any of model images, which is achieved by a new multi-model correspondence detection approach based on our recently-published sparse point matching method. To correct those inaccurate correspondences, we further apply an error detection mechanism to automatically detect wrong correspondences and then update the image graph accordingly (called as backward step). After that, all subject images with detected correspondences are included into the set of model images, and the above two steps of graph expansion and error correction are repeated until accurate correspondences for all subject images are established. Evaluations on real hand X-ray images demonstrate that our proposed method using a dynamic graph construction approach can achieve much higher accuracy and robustness, when compared with the state-of-the-art pair-wise correspondence detection methods as well as a similar method but using static population graph.

  4. A Biomass Flow Approach to Population Models and Food Webs

    PubMed Central

    Getz, Wayne M.

    2011-01-01

    The dominant differential equation paradigm for modeling the population dynamics of species interacting in the framework of a food web retains at its core the basic prey-predator and competition models formulation by Alfred J. Lotka (1880–1945) and Vito Volterra (1860–1940) nearly nine decades ago. This paradigm lacks a trophic-level-independent formulation of population growth leading to ambiguities in how to treat populations that are simultaneously both prey and predator. Also, this paradigm does not fundamentally include inertial (i.e. change resisting) processes needed to account for the response of populations to fluctuating resource environments. Here I present an approach that corrects both these deficits and provides a unified framework for accounting for biomass transformation in food webs that include both live and dead components of all species in the system. This biomass transformation formulation (BTW) allows for a unified treatment of webs that include consumers of both live and dead material—both carnivores and carcasivores, herbivores and detritivores—and incorporates scavengers, parasites, and other neglected food web consumption categories in a coherent manner. I trace how BTW is an outgrowth of the metaphysiological growth modeling paradigm and I provide a general compact formulation of BTW in terms of a three-variable differential equation formulation for each species in the food web: viz. live biomass, dead biomass, and a food-intake-related measure called deficit-stress. I then illustrate the application of this new paradigm to provide insights into two-species competition in variable environments and discuss application of BTW to food webs that incorporate parasites and pathogens.

  5. A linear model of population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  6. Statistical analysis of polychaete population density: dynamics of dominant species and scaling properties in relative abundance fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quiroz-Martinez, B.; Schmitt, F. G.; Dauvin, J.-C.

    2012-01-01

    We consider here the dynamics of two polychaete populations based on a 20 yr temporal benthic survey of two muddy fine sand communities in the Bay of Morlaix, Western English Channel. These populations display high temporal variability, which is analyzed here using scaling approaches. We find that population densities have heavy tailed probability density functions. We analyze the dynamics of relative species abundance in two different communities of polychaetes by estimating in a novel way a "mean square drift" coefficient which characterizes their fluctuations in relative abundance over time. We show the usefulness of using new tools to approach and model such highly variable population dynamics in marine ecosystems.

  7. Multistability in simplest models of the population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhdanova, Oksana L.; Frisman, Efim Ya.

    2016-06-01

    The investigation of dynamics behavior of population number and genetic structure has been conducted for a homogeneous limited population influenced by density-dependent selection in single di-allelic genetic locus. The detailed investigation of the mechanisms of the loss of stability in the considered model is carried out. It is shown that coexistence of several different asymptotic dynamic regimes (with own attraction basins) is possible in numerous enough parametric regions which are meaningful biologically.

  8. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-07-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.

  9. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

    PubMed Central

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-01-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  10. The 5:1 Neptune Resonance: Dynamics and Population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pike, Rosemary E.; Kavelaars, J. J.; Gladman, Brett; Petit, Jean-Marc; Alexandersen, Mike

    2014-11-01

    Based on 4 objects detected with semi-major axes near the 5:1 external resonance with Neptune, we estimate a substantial and previously unrecognized population of objects, perhaps more significant than the 3:2 (Plutino) resonance population. These external resonances are largely unexplored in both observations and dynamical simulations. However, understanding the characteristics and trapping history for objects in these populations is critical for constraining the dynamical history of the solar system. The 4 objects detected in the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) were classified using dynamical integrations. Three are resonant, and the last appears to be a resonant drop-off. The 3 objects are taken to be representative of the steady-state population, so by using these detections and the CFEPS characterization (pointings and detection limits) we calculate a population estimate for this resonance at ~3000(+5000 -2000) with Hg<8. This is at least as large as the Plutinos (3:2 resonance) at 90% confidence. The small number of detected objects results in such a large population estimate due to the numerous biases against detecting objects with semimajor axes at 88AU. Based on the dynamical behavior of the known objects, the trapping mechanism for the 5:1 resonance appears to be resonance sticking from the scattering objects. The long resonance lifetimes of some dynamical clones suggests that a steady state population could be maintained through periodic sticking.

  11. [The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

    PubMed

    Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

  12. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  13. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  14. How life history influences population dynamics in fluctuating environments.

    PubMed

    Saether, Bernt-Erik; Coulson, Tim; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar; Altwegg, Res; Armitage, Kenneth B; Barbraud, Christophe; Becker, Peter H; Blumstein, Daniel T; Dobson, F Stephen; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Jenkins, Andrew; Jones, Carl; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Norris, Ken; Oli, Madan K; Ozgul, Arpat; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2013-12-01

    A major question in ecology is how age-specific variation in demographic parameters influences population dynamics. Based on long-term studies of growing populations of birds and mammals, we analyze population dynamics by using fluctuations in the total reproductive value of the population. This enables us to account for random fluctuations in age distribution. The influence of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the population dynamics of a species decreased with generation time. Variation in age-specific contributions to total reproductive value and to stochastic components of population dynamics was correlated with the position of the species along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. Younger age classes relative to the generation time accounted for larger contributions to the total reproductive value and to demographic stochasticity in "slow" than in "fast" species, in which many age classes contributed more equally. In contrast, fluctuations in population growth rate attributable to stochastic environmental variation involved a larger proportion of all age classes independent of life history. Thus, changes in population growth rates can be surprisingly well explained by basic species-specific life-history characteristics.

  15. Multiple Cancer Cell Population Dynamics in a Complex Ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Ke-Chih; Targa, Gonzalo; Pienta, Kenneth; Sturm, James; Austin, Robert

    We have developed a technology for study of complex ecology cancer population dynamics. The technology includes complex drug gradients, full bright field/dark field/fluorescence imaging of areas of several square millimeters and thin gas-permable membranes which allow single cell extraction and analysis. We will present results of studies of prostate cancer cell dynamics.

  16. Dynamical maximum entropy approach to flocking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavagna, Andrea; Giardina, Irene; Ginelli, Francesco; Mora, Thierry; Piovani, Duccio; Tavarone, Raffaele; Walczak, Aleksandra M.

    2014-04-01

    We derive a new method to infer from data the out-of-equilibrium alignment dynamics of collectively moving animal groups, by considering the maximum entropy model distribution consistent with temporal and spatial correlations of flight direction. When bird neighborhoods evolve rapidly, this dynamical inference correctly learns the parameters of the model, while a static one relying only on the spatial correlations fails. When neighbors change slowly and the detailed balance is satisfied, we recover the static procedure. We demonstrate the validity of the method on simulated data. The approach is applicable to other systems of active matter.

  17. Multicriterial approach to beam dynamics optimization problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vladimirova, L. V.

    2016-09-01

    The problem of optimization of particle beam dynamics in accelerating system is considered in the case when control process quality is estimated by several functionals. Multicriterial approach is used. When there are two criteria, compromise curve may be obtained. If the number of criteria is three or more, one can select some criteria to be main and impose the constraints on the remaining criteria. The optimization result is the set of efficient controls; a user has an opportunity to select the most appropriate control among them. The paper presents the results of multicriteria optimization of beam dynamics in linear accelerator LEA-15-M.

  18. Cytonuclear dynamics in selfing populations under selection

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Renyi; Asmussen, Marjorie A.

    2007-01-01

    We develop a mathematical model to delimit the role of natural selection in maintaining nuclear and cytoplasmic polymorphisms in selfing populations. We provide explicit time‐dependent solutions for joint cytonuclear frequencies under any combination of constant fertility, viability, and gametic selection and exact analytical conditions for the maintenance of polymorphisms under joint cytonuclear selection. The equilibrium structure is determined by the relative magnitude of echo fitnesses, defined as the rate at which individuals survive and produce offspring with their own genotype. Both nuclear and cytoplasmic polymorphisms can be maintained under biologically meaningful conditions, although the majority of the parameter combinations will lead to fixation. The theoretical framework developed here should be very useful in formally dissecting the form and strength of selection on cytonuclear genotypes in populations with negligible levels of outcrossing. PMID:17467019

  19. A Particle Population Control Method for Dynamic Monte Carlo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweezy, Jeremy; Nolen, Steve; Adams, Terry; Zukaitis, Anthony

    2014-06-01

    A general particle population control method has been derived from splitting and Russian Roulette for dynamic Monte Carlo particle transport. A well-known particle population control method, known as the particle population comb, has been shown to be a special case of this general method. This general method has been incorporated in Los Alamos National Laboratory's Monte Carlo Application Toolkit (MCATK) and examples of it's use are shown for both super-critical and sub-critical systems.

  20. A life-history perspective on the demographic drivers of structured population dynamics in changing environments.

    PubMed

    Koons, David N; Iles, David T; Schaub, Michael; Caswell, Hal

    2016-09-01

    Current understanding of life-history evolution and how demographic parameters contribute to population dynamics across species is largely based on assumptions of either constant environments or stationary environmental variation. Meanwhile, species are faced with non-stationary environmental conditions (changing mean, variance, or both) created by climate and landscape change. To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, we develop a set of transient life table response experiments (LTREs) for decomposing realised population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure. Using transient LTREs in a theoretical framework, we reveal that established concepts in population biology will require revision because of reliance on approaches that do not address the influence of unstable population structure on population growth and mean fitness. Going forward, transient LTREs will enhance understanding of demography and improve the explanatory power of models used to understand ecological and evolutionary dynamics. PMID:27401966

  1. The effect of correlations on the population dynamics of lymphocytes.

    PubMed

    Wellard, C; Markham, J; Hawkins, E D; Hodgkin, P D

    2010-05-21

    Recent studies of the population dynamics of a system of lymphocytes in an in vitro immune response have reported strong correlations in cell division times, both between parents and their progeny, and between those of sibling cells. The data also show a high level of correlation in the ultimate number of divisions achieved by cells within the same clone. Such correlations are often ignored in mathematical models of cell dynamics as they violate a standard assumption in the theory of branching processes, that of the statistical independence of cells. In this article we present a model in which these correlations can be incorporated, and have used this model to study the effect of these correlations on the population dynamics of a system of cells. We found that correlation in the division times between parents and their progeny can alter the mean population size of clones within the system, while all of the correlations can affect the variance in the sizes of different clones. The model was then applied to experimental data obtained from time-lapse video microscopy of a system of CpG stimulated B lymphocytes and it was found that inclusion of the correct correlation structure is necessary to accurately reproduce the observed population dynamics. We conclude that correlations in the dynamics of cells within an ensemble will affect the population dynamics of the system, and the effects will become more pronounced as the number of divisions increases.

  2. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    PubMed

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  3. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  4. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. PMID:26747638

  5. The modern temperature-accelerated dynamics approach

    DOE PAGES

    Zamora, Richard J.; Uberuaga, Blas P.; Perez, Danny; Voter, Arthur F.

    2016-06-01

    Accelerated molecular dynamics (AMD) is a class of MD-based methods used to simulate atomistic systems in which the metastable state-to-state evolution is slow compared with thermal vibrations. Temperature-accelerated dynamics (TAD) is a particularly efficient AMD procedure in which the predicted evolution is hastened by elevating the temperature of the system and then recovering the correct state-to-state dynamics at the temperature of interest. TAD has been used to study various materials applications, often revealing surprising behavior beyond the reach of direct MD. This success has inspired several algorithmic performance enhancements, as well as the analysis of its mathematical framework. Recently, thesemore » enhancements have leveraged parallel programming techniques to enhance both the spatial and temporal scaling of the traditional approach. Here, we review the ongoing evolution of the modern TAD method and introduce the latest development: speculatively parallel TAD.« less

  6. An analytic approach to cyber adversarial dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweeney, Patrick; Cybenko, George

    2012-06-01

    To date, cyber security investment by both the government and commercial sectors has been largely driven by the myopic best response of players to the actions of their adversaries and their perception of the adversarial environment. However, current work in applying traditional game theory to cyber operations typically assumes that games exist with prescribed moves, strategies, and payos. This paper presents an analytic approach to characterizing the more realistic cyber adversarial metagame that we believe is being played. Examples show that understanding the dynamic metagame provides opportunities to exploit an adversary's anticipated attack strategy. A dynamic version of a graph-based attack-defend game is introduced, and a simulation shows how an optimal strategy can be selected for success in the dynamic environment.

  7. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-08

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations-more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host-pathogen metapopulation.

  8. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations-more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host-pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  9. Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvidio, Sebastiano

    2007-05-01

    Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993 2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.

  10. Dynamic health promotion for the geriatric population.

    PubMed

    Gunderson, Anne J; Tomkowiak, John M

    2004-01-01

    The documents Healthy People 2000 and its update, Healthy People 2010, have helped focus national attention on the neglected areas of disease prevention and health promotion and maintenance. Despite increasing awareness and the proliferation of research that demonstrates the effectiveness of a healthy lifestyle for disease prevention, patients and healthcare professionals continue to struggle with an effective approach to effecting healthy lifestyle strategies. The inclusion of health promotion goals into care plans seldom is enough to create positive behavioral changes in a patient. Understanding what motivates an older individual to adopt healthy habits and what behavioral change process the individual must take to be successful is a key starting point for the rehabilitation nurse dedicated to the promotion of health and wellness. The transtheoretical model of change (TTM) is an approach that can be used to create an atmosphere for the adoption of healthy lifestyle practices, and assist in the behavioral change process necessary to promote older adults' success in this endeavor.

  11. Exploring Population Admixture Dynamics via Empirical and Simulated Genome-wide Distribution of Ancestral Chromosomal Segments

    PubMed Central

    Jin, Wenfei; Wang, Sijia; Wang, Haifeng; Jin, Li; Xu, Shuhua

    2012-01-01

    The processes of genetic admixture determine the haplotype structure and linkage disequilibrium patterns of the admixed population, which is important for medical and evolutionary studies. However, most previous studies do not consider the inherent complexity of admixture processes. Here we proposed two approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, and we demonstrated, by analyzing genome-wide empirical and simulated data, that the approach based on the distribution of chromosomal segments of distinct ancestry (CSDAs) was more powerful than that based on the distribution of individual ancestry proportions. Analysis of 1,890 African Americans showed that a continuous gene flow model, in which the African American population continuously received gene flow from European populations over about 14 generations, best explained the admixture dynamics of African Americans among several putative models. Interestingly, we observed that some African Americans had much more European ancestry than the simulated samples, indicating substructures of local ancestries in African Americans that could have been caused by individuals from some particular lineages having repeatedly admixed with people of European ancestry. In contrast, the admixture dynamics of Mexicans could be explained by a gradual admixture model in which the Mexican population continuously received gene flow from both European and Amerindian populations over about 24 generations. Our results also indicated that recent gene flows from Sub-Saharan Africans have contributed to the gene pool of Middle Eastern populations such as Mozabite, Bedouin, and Palestinian. In summary, this study not only provides approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, but also advances our understanding on population history of African Americans, Mexicans, and Middle Eastern populations. PMID:23103229

  12. Transient population dynamics: Relations to life history and initial population state

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, D.N.; Grand, J.B.; Zinner, B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    2005-01-01

    Most environments are variable and disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, fires) can lead to substantial changes in a population's state (i.e., age, stage, or size distribution). In these situations, the long-term (i.e., asymptotic) measure of population growth rate (??1) may inaccurately represent population growth in the short-term. Thus, we calculated the short-term (i.e., transient) population growth rate and its sensitivity to changes in the life-cycle parameters for three bird and three mammal species with widely varying life histories. Further, we performed these calculations for initial population states that spanned the entire range of possibilities. Variation in a population's initial net reproductive value largely explained the variation in transient growth rates and their sensitivities to changes in life-cycle parameters (all AICc ??? 6.67 units better than the null model, all R2 ??? 0.55). Additionally, the transient fertility and adult survival sensitivities tended to increase with the initial net reproductive value of the population, whereas the sub-adult survival sensitivity decreased. Transient population dynamics of long-lived, slow reproducing species were more variable and more different than asymptotic dynamics than they were for short-lived, fast reproducing species. Because ??1 can be a biased estimate of the actual growth rate in the short-term (e.g., 19% difference), conservation and wildlife biologists should consider transient dynamics when developing management plans that could affect a population's state, or whenever population state could be unstable.

  13. Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics.

    PubMed

    Barry, Alyssa E; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-05-01

    Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes.

  14. Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

    PubMed Central

    Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-01-01

    Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

  15. A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  16. A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Myerscough, Mary R.; Barron, Andrew B.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  17. Generational Spreading Speed and the Dynamics of Population Range Expansion.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Andrew W; Neubert, Michael G; Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A

    2015-09-01

    Some of the most fundamental quantities in population ecology describe the growth and spread of populations. Population dynamics are often characterized by the annual rate of increase, λ, or the generational rate of increase, R0. Analyses involving R0 have deepened our understanding of disease dynamics and life-history complexities beyond that afforded by analysis of annual growth alone. While range expansion is quantified by the annual spreading speed, a spatial analog of λ, an R0-like expression for the rate of spread is missing. Using integrodifference models, we derive the appropriate generational spreading speed for populations with complex (stage-structured) life histories. The resulting measure, relevant to locations near the expanding edge of a (re)colonizing population, incorporates both local population growth and explicit spatial dispersal rather than solely growth across a population, as is the case for R0. The calculations for generational spreading speed are often simpler than those for annual spreading speed, and analytic or partial analytic solutions can yield insight into the processes that facilitate or slow a population's spatial spread. We analyze the spatial dynamics of green crabs, sea otters, and teasel as examples to demonstrate the flexibility of our methods and the intuitive insights that they afford. PMID:26655354

  18. MODELING APPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL RISK AESSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

  19. A Repeated Observation Approach for Estimating the Street Homeless Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berry, Brent

    2007-01-01

    Risks of life on the street caused by inclement weather, harassment, and assault threaten the unsheltered homeless population. We address some challenges of enumerating the street homeless population by testing a novel capture-recapture (CR) estimation approach that models individuals' intermittent daytime visibility. We tested walking and…

  20. Population dynamics and the ecological stability of obligate pollination mutualisms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2001-01-01

    Mutualistic interactions almost always produce both costs and benefits for each of the interacting species. It is the difference between gross benefits and costs that determines the net benefit and the per-capita effect on each of the interacting populations. For example, the net benefit of obligate pollinators, such as yucca and senita moths, to plants is determined by the difference between the number of ovules fertilized from moth pollination and the number of ovules eaten by the pollinator's larvae. It is clear that if pollinator populations are large, then, because many eggs are laid, costs to plants are large, whereas, if pollinator populations are small, gross benefits are low due to lack of pollination. Even though the size and dynamics of the pollinator population are likely to be crucial, their importance has been neglected in the investigation of mechanisms, such as selective fruit abortion, that can limit costs and increase net benefits. Here, we suggest that both the population size and dynamics of pollinators are important in determining the net benefits to plants, and that fruit abortion can significantly affect these. We develop a model of mutualism between populations of plants and their pollinating seed-predators to explore the ecological consequences of fruit abortion on pollinator population dynamics and the net effect on plants. We demonstrate that the benefit to a plant population is unimodal as a function of pollinator abundance, relative to the abundance of flowers. Both selective abortion of fruit with eggs and random abortion of fruit, without reference to whether they have eggs or not, can limit pollinator population size. This can increase the net benefits to the plant population by limiting the number of eggs laid, if the pollination rate remains high. However, fruit abortion can possibly destabilize the pollinator population, with negative consequences for the plant population.

  1. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

    PubMed

    Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

    2008-10-23

    Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

  2. Dynamics of plankton populations in upwelling areas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Szekielda, K. H. (Principal Investigator)

    1975-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Spectral properties of the upwelled waters off the NW coast of Africa were studied with observations derived from aircraft and Skylab. Results indicate that the two-channel, ratio approach is ineffective in determining surface chlorophyll concentrations. Ocean color boundaries and temperature gradients were found to be directly correlated with each other and also with fishing effort in the upwelling region. Photographic and scanner data derived from Skylab were effective in locating ocean boundaries and mapping temperature distributions.

  3. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Leibler, Stanislas

    2015-10-01

    Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES) as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  4. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A; Urban, Marie L; Rose, Amy N; Coleman, Phil R; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  5. Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

    2016-02-01

    The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

  6. Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations.

    PubMed

    Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

    2016-02-01

    The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions. PMID:26986362

  7. Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

    2008-01-01

    Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

  8. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  9. Epidemic dynamics and host immune response: a nested approach.

    PubMed

    Gandolfi, Alberto; Pugliese, Andrea; Sinisgalli, Carmela

    2015-02-01

    This paper proposes an approach for building epidemiological models that incorporate the intra-host pathogen-immunity dynamics. The infected population is structured in terms of pathogen load and level of immunity, and the initial infection load may depend on the load of the individual from whom the infection is acquired. In particular, we focus on the case in which the initial inoculum is taken proportional to the load of the infectant. Possible reinfections are disregarded. Such an approach is applied to formulate an epidemic model with isolation in a closed population by introducing a specific intra-host dynamics. A numerical scheme for the solution of model equations is developed, and some numerical results illustrating the role of the initial inoculum, of the isolation threshold and of the pathogen dynamics on the epidemic evolution are presented. From the simulations the distributions of latency, infectivity, and isolation times can be also derived; however the predictions of the present models differ qualitatively from those of traditional SEIHR models with distributed latency, infectivity and isolation periods.

  10. Advances in Quantum Trajectory Approaches to Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Askar, Attila

    2001-03-01

    The quantum fluid dynamics (QFD) formulation is based on the separation of the amplitude and phase of the complex wave function in Schrodinger's equation. The approach leads to conservation laws for an equivalent "gas continuum". The Lagrangian [1] representation corresponds to following the particles of the fluid continuum, i. e. calculating "quantum trajectories". The Eulerian [2] representation on the other hand, amounts to observing the dynamics of the gas continuum at the points of a fixed coordinate frame. The combination of several factors leads to a most encouraging computational efficiency. QFD enables the numerical analysis to deal with near monotonic amplitude and phase functions. The Lagrangian description concentrates the computation effort to regions of highest probability as an optimal adaptive grid. The Eulerian representation allows the study of multi-coordinate problems as a set of one-dimensional problems within an alternating direction methodology. An explicit time integrator limits the increase in computational effort with the number of discrete points to linear. Discretization of the space via local finite elements [1,2] and global radial functions [3] will be discussed. Applications include wave packets in four-dimensional quadratic potentials and two coordinate photo-dissociation problems for NOCl and NO2. [1] "Quantum fluid dynamics (QFD) in the Lagrangian representation with applications to photo-dissociation problems", F. Sales, A. Askar and H. A. Rabitz, J. Chem. Phys. 11, 2423 (1999) [2] "Multidimensional wave-packet dynamics within the fluid dynamical formulation of the Schrodinger equation", B. Dey, A. Askar and H. A. Rabitz, J. Chem. Phys. 109, 8770 (1998) [3] "Solution of the quantum fluid dynamics equations with radial basis function interpolation", Xu-Guang Hu, Tak-San Ho, H. A. Rabitz and A. Askar, Phys. Rev. E. 61, 5967 (2000)

  11. Defining heterogeneity within bacterial populations via single cell approaches.

    PubMed

    Davis, Kimberly M; Isberg, Ralph R

    2016-08-01

    Bacterial populations are heterogeneous, which in many cases can provide a selective advantage during changes in environmental conditions. In some instances, heterogeneity exists at the genetic level, in which significant allelic variation occurs within a population seeded by a single cell. In other cases, heterogeneity exists due to phenotypic differences within a clonal, genetically identical population. A variety of mechanisms can drive this latter strategy. Stochastic fluctuations can drive differential gene expression, but heterogeneity in gene expression can also be driven by environmental changes sensed by individual cells residing in distinct locales. Utilizing multiple single cell approaches, workers have started to uncover the extent of heterogeneity within bacterial populations. This review will first describe several examples of phenotypic and genetic heterogeneity, and then discuss many single cell approaches that have recently been applied to define heterogeneity within bacterial populations. PMID:27273675

  12. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Close, Dan; Sayler, Gary Steven; Xu, Tingting; Ripp, Steven Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  13. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease

    PubMed Central

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F.; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations—more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host–pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  14. Spatially structured population dynamics in feral oilseed rape.

    PubMed Central

    Crawley, Michael J.; Brown, Susan L.

    2004-01-01

    We studied the population dynamics of feral oilseed rape (Brassica napus) for 10 years (1993-2002) in 3658 adjacent permanent 100 m quadrats in the verges of the M25 motorway around London, UK. The aim was to determine the relative importance of different factors affecting the observed temporal patterns of population dynamics and their spatial correlations. A wide range of population dynamics was observed (downward or upward trends, cycles, local extinctions and recolonizations), but overall the populations were not self-replacing (lambda < 1). Many quadrats remained unoccupied throughout the study period, but a few were occupied at high densities for all 10 years. Most quadrats showed transient oilseed rape populations, lasting 1-4 years. There were strong spatial patterns in mean population density, associated with soil conditions and the successional age of the plant community dominating the verge, and these large-scale spatial patterns were highly consistent from year to year. The importance of seed spilled from trucks in transit to the processing plant at Erith in Kent was confirmed: rape populations were significantly higher on the 'to Erith' verge than the 'from Erith' verge (overall mean 2.83-fold greater stem density). Quadrats in which lambda > 1 were much more frequent in the 'to Erith' verge, indicating that seed immigration can give the spurious impression of self-replacing population dynamics in time-series analysis. There was little evidence of a pervasive Moran effect, and climatic forcing did not produce widespread large-scale synchrony in population dynamics for the motorway as a whole; just 23% of quadrats had significant rank correlations with the mean time-series. There was, however, significant local spatial synchrony of population dynamics, apparently associated with soil disturbance and seed input. This study draws attention to the possibility that different processes may impose population synchrony at different scales. We hypothesize that

  15. Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

    PubMed Central

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

  16. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    PubMed

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  17. Stability threshold approach for complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    A new measure to characterize the stability of complex dynamical systems against large perturbations is suggested, the stability threshold (ST). It quantifies the magnitude of the weakest perturbation capable of disrupting the system and switch it to an undesired dynamical regime. In the phase space, the ST corresponds to the ‘thinnest site’ of the attraction basin and therefore indicates the most ‘dangerous’ direction of perturbations. We introduce a computational algorithm for quantification of the ST and demonstrate that the suggested approach is effective and provides important insights. The generality of the obtained results defines their vast potential for application in such fields as engineering, neuroscience, power grids, Earth science and many others where the robustness of complex systems is studied.

  18. An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

  19. Locally dispersing populations in heterogeneous dynamic landscapes with spatiotemporal correlations. II. Habitat driven by voter dynamics.

    PubMed

    Hiebeler, David E; Hill, Jack L

    2016-10-21

    We examine a spatially explicit population model on a dynamic landscape with suitable and unsuitable habitat driven by voter or contagion dynamics. We consider four cases, consisting of all combinations of local and global interactions for both population dispersal and habitat dynamics. For both local and global population dispersal, using local habitat dynamics always increases population density relative to the case with global habitat dynamics, due to the resulting segregation of habitat turnover, decrease in effective habitat turnover rate, and presence of stable habitat corridors. With global habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal exhibits lower density than one with global dispersal due to local crowding as well as frequent disturbance due to habitat transitions. On the other hand, with local habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal can exploit suitable habitat patches and use dynamic corridors to colonize new regions. The latter effect is not seen with static landscapes, where clustered habitat can lead to the isolation of suitable patches due to surrounding unsuitable habitat.

  20. Locally dispersing populations in heterogeneous dynamic landscapes with spatiotemporal correlations. II. Habitat driven by voter dynamics.

    PubMed

    Hiebeler, David E; Hill, Jack L

    2016-10-21

    We examine a spatially explicit population model on a dynamic landscape with suitable and unsuitable habitat driven by voter or contagion dynamics. We consider four cases, consisting of all combinations of local and global interactions for both population dispersal and habitat dynamics. For both local and global population dispersal, using local habitat dynamics always increases population density relative to the case with global habitat dynamics, due to the resulting segregation of habitat turnover, decrease in effective habitat turnover rate, and presence of stable habitat corridors. With global habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal exhibits lower density than one with global dispersal due to local crowding as well as frequent disturbance due to habitat transitions. On the other hand, with local habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal can exploit suitable habitat patches and use dynamic corridors to colonize new regions. The latter effect is not seen with static landscapes, where clustered habitat can lead to the isolation of suitable patches due to surrounding unsuitable habitat. PMID:27457095

  1. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

  2. Cryptic Population Dynamics: Rapid Evolution Masks Trophic Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Yoshida, Takehito; Ellner, Stephen P; Jones, Laura E; Bohannan, Brendan J. M; Lenski, Richard E; Hairston, Nelson G

    2007-01-01

    Trophic relationships, such as those between predator and prey or between pathogen and host, are key interactions linking species in ecological food webs. The structure of these links and their strengths have major consequences for the dynamics and stability of food webs. The existence and strength of particular trophic links has often been assessed using observational data on changes in species abundance through time. Here we show that very strong links can be completely missed by these kinds of analyses when changes in population abundance are accompanied by contemporaneous rapid evolution in the prey or host species. Experimental observations, in rotifer-alga and phage-bacteria chemostats, show that the predator or pathogen can exhibit large-amplitude cycles while the abundance of the prey or host remains essentially constant. We know that the species are tightly linked in these experimental microcosms, but without this knowledge, we would infer from observed patterns in abundance that the species are weakly or not at all linked. Mathematical modeling shows that this kind of cryptic dynamics occurs when there is rapid prey or host evolution for traits conferring defense against attack, and the cost of defense (in terms of tradeoffs with other fitness components) is low. Several predictions of the theory that we developed to explain the rotifer-alga experiments are confirmed in the phage-bacteria experiments, where bacterial evolution could be tracked. Modeling suggests that rapid evolution may also confound experimental approaches to measuring interaction strength, but it identifies certain experimental designs as being more robust against potential confounding by rapid evolution. PMID:17803356

  3. Dynamical quorum sensing and clustering dynamics in a population of spatially distributed active rotators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Maeyama, Satomi

    2013-02-01

    A model of clustering dynamics is proposed for a population of spatially distributed active rotators. A transition from excitable to oscillatory dynamics is induced by the increase of the local density of active rotators. It is interpreted as dynamical quorum sensing. In the oscillation regime, phase waves propagate without decay, which generates an effectively long-range interaction in the clustering dynamics. The clustering process becomes facilitated and only one dominant cluster appears rapidly as a result of the dynamical quorum sensing. An exact localized solution is found to a simplified model equation, and the competitive dynamics between two localized states is studied numerically.

  4. Dynamic noise, chaos and parameter estimation in population biology.

    PubMed

    Stollenwerk, N; Aguiar, M; Ballesteros, S; Boto, J; Kooi, B; Mateus, L

    2012-04-01

    We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models such as multi-strain dynamics to describe the virus-host interaction in dengue fever, even the most recently developed parameter estimation techniques, such as maximum likelihood iterated filtering, reach their computational limits. However, the first results of parameter estimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay between stochasticity and the deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own already displays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multiple attractors.

  5. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  6. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    PubMed

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure.

  7. Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

    2012-01-01

    The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (σ = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

  8. Population dynamic theory of size-dependent cannibalism.

    PubMed Central

    Claessen, David; de Roos, André M.; Persson, Lennart

    2004-01-01

    Cannibalism is characterized by four aspects: killing victims, gaining energy from victims, size-dependent interactions and intraspecific competition. In this review of mathematical models of cannibalistic populations, we relate the predicted population dynamic consequences of cannibalism to its four defining aspects. We distinguish five classes of effects of cannibalism: (i) regulation of population size; (ii) destabilization resulting in population cycles or chaos; (iii) stabilization by damping population cycles caused by other interactions; (iv) bistability such that, depending on the initial conditions, the population converges to one of two possible stable states; and (v) modification of the population size structure. The same effects of cannibalism may be caused by different combinations of aspects of cannibalism. By contrast, the same combination of aspects may lead to different effects. For particular cannibalistic species, the consequences of cannibalism will depend on the presence and details of the four defining aspects. Empirical evidence for the emerged theory of cannibalism is discussed briefly. The implications of the described dynamic effects of cannibalism are discussed in the context of community structure, making a comparison with the community effects of intraguild predation. PMID:15101690

  9. Dynamically Reconfigurable Approach to Multidisciplinary Problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexandrov, Natalie M.; Lewis, Robert Michael

    2003-01-01

    The complexity and autonomy of the constituent disciplines and the diversity of the disciplinary data formats make the task of integrating simulations into a multidisciplinary design optimization problem extremely time-consuming and difficult. We propose a dynamically reconfigurable approach to MDO problem formulation wherein an appropriate implementation of the disciplinary information results in basic computational components that can be combined into different MDO problem formulations and solution algorithms, including hybrid strategies, with relative ease. The ability to re-use the computational components is due to the special structure of the MDO problem. We believe that this structure can and should be used to formulate and solve optimization problems in the multidisciplinary context. The present work identifies the basic computational components in several MDO problem formulations and examines the dynamically reconfigurable approach in the context of a popular class of optimization methods. We show that if the disciplinary sensitivity information is implemented in a modular fashion, the transfer of sensitivity information among the formulations under study is straightforward. This enables not only experimentation with a variety of problem formations in a research environment, but also the flexible use of formulations in a production design environment.

  10. Bacterial associations reveal spatial population dynamics in Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes

    PubMed Central

    Buck, Moritz; Nilsson, Louise K. J.; Brunius, Carl; Dabiré, Roch K.; Hopkins, Richard; Terenius, Olle

    2016-01-01

    The intolerable burden of malaria has for too long plagued humanity and the prospect of eradicating malaria is an optimistic, but reachable, target in the 21st century. However, extensive knowledge is needed about the spatial structure of mosquito populations in order to develop effective interventions against malaria transmission. We hypothesized that the microbiota associated with a mosquito reflects acquisition of bacteria in different environments. By analyzing the whole-body bacterial flora of An. gambiae mosquitoes from Burkina Faso by 16 S amplicon sequencing, we found that the different environments gave each mosquito a specific bacterial profile. In addition, the bacterial profiles provided precise and predicting information on the spatial dynamics of the mosquito population as a whole and showed that the mosquitoes formed clear local populations within a meta-population network. We believe that using microbiotas as proxies for population structures will greatly aid improving the performance of vector interventions around the world. PMID:26960555

  11. Eco-evolutionary dynamics: disentangling phenotypic, environmental and population fluctuations.

    PubMed

    Ezard, Thomas H G; Côté, Steeve D; Pelletier, Fanie

    2009-06-12

    Decomposing variation in population growth into contributions from both ecological and evolutionary processes is of fundamental concern, particularly in a world characterized by rapid responses to anthropogenic threats. Although the impact of ecological change on evolutionary response has long been acknowledged, the converse has predominantly been neglected, especially empirically. By applying a recently published conceptual framework, we assess and contrast the relative importance of phenotypic and environmental variability on annual population growth in five ungulate populations. In four of the five populations, the contribution of phenotypic variability was greater than the contribution of environmental variability, although not significantly so. The similarity in the contributions of environment and phenotype suggests that neither is worthy of neglect. Population growth is a consequence of multiple processes, which strengthens arguments advocating integrated approaches to assess how populations respond to their environments.

  12. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.

    2008-06-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, η Car, ζ Pup, γ2 Velorum and WR 140.

  13. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  14. Ecosystem model-based approach for modelling the dynamics of 137Cs transfer to marine plankton populations: application to the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belharet, M.; Estournel, C.; Charmasson, S.

    2015-06-01

    Huge amounts of radionuclides, especially 137Cs, were released into the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) accident that occurred on 11 March 2011, resulting in contamination of the marine biota. In this study we developed a radioecological model to estimate 137Cs concentrations in phytoplankton and zooplankton populations representing the lower levels of the pelagic trophic chain. We coupled this model to a lower trophic level ecosystem model and an ocean circulation model to take into account the site-specific environmental conditions in the area. The different radioecological parameters of the model were estimated by calibration, and a sensitivity analysis to parameter uncertainties was carried out, showing a high sensitivity of the model results, especially to the 137Cs concentration in seawater, to the rates of uptake from water and to the radionuclide assimilation efficiency for zooplankton. The results of the 137Cs concentrations in planktonic populations simulated in this study were then validated through comparison with the some data available in the region after the accident. The model results have shown that the maximum concentrations in plankton after the accident were about two to four orders of magnitude higher than those observed before the accident depending on the distance from FNPP. Finally, the maximum 137Cs absorbed dose rate for phyto- and zooplankton populations was estimated to be about 10-2 μGy h-1, and was, therefore, lower than the 10 μGy h-1 benchmark value defined in the ERICA assessment approach from which a measurable effect on the marine biota can be observed.

  15. Population and Evolutionary Dynamics based on Predator-Prey Relationships in a 3D Physical Simulation.

    PubMed

    Ito, Takashi; Pilat, Marcin L; Suzuki, Reiji; Arita, Takaya

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have reported that population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics, occurring at different time scales, can be affected by each other. Our purpose is to explore the interaction between population and evolutionary dynamics using an artificial life approach based on a 3D physically simulated environment in the context of predator-prey and morphology-behavior coevolution. The morphologies and behaviors of virtual prey creatures are evolved using a genetic algorithm based on the predation interactions between predators and prey. Both population sizes are also changed, depending on the fitness. We observe two types of cyclic behaviors, corresponding to short-term and long-term dynamics. The former can be interpreted as a simple population dynamics of Lotka-Volterra type. It is shown that the latter cycle is based on the interaction between the changes in the prey strategy against predators and the long-term change in both population sizes, resulting partly from a tradeoff between their defensive success and the cost of defense.

  16. Population and Evolutionary Dynamics based on Predator-Prey Relationships in a 3D Physical Simulation.

    PubMed

    Ito, Takashi; Pilat, Marcin L; Suzuki, Reiji; Arita, Takaya

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have reported that population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics, occurring at different time scales, can be affected by each other. Our purpose is to explore the interaction between population and evolutionary dynamics using an artificial life approach based on a 3D physically simulated environment in the context of predator-prey and morphology-behavior coevolution. The morphologies and behaviors of virtual prey creatures are evolved using a genetic algorithm based on the predation interactions between predators and prey. Both population sizes are also changed, depending on the fitness. We observe two types of cyclic behaviors, corresponding to short-term and long-term dynamics. The former can be interpreted as a simple population dynamics of Lotka-Volterra type. It is shown that the latter cycle is based on the interaction between the changes in the prey strategy against predators and the long-term change in both population sizes, resulting partly from a tradeoff between their defensive success and the cost of defense. PMID:26934093

  17. Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review

    PubMed Central

    Perc, Matjaž; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

    2013-01-01

    Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

  18. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe-Strogatz integrability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-08-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations.

  19. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe–Strogatz integrability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-08-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations.

  20. Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

    PubMed

    Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

    2010-06-01

    Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

  1. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ''diversity waves'' triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak--species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies. PMID:26367172

  2. Population dynamics of epiphytic orchids in a metapopulation context

    PubMed Central

    Winkler, Manuela; Hülber, Karl; Hietz, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims Populations of many epiphytes show a patchy distribution where clusters of plants growing on individual trees are spatially separated and may thus function as metapopulations. Seed dispersal is necessary to (re)colonize unoccupied habitats, and to transfer seeds from high- to low-competition patches. Increasing dispersal distances, however, reduces local fecundity and the probability that seeds will find a safe site outside the original patch. Thus, there is a conflict between seed survival and colonization. Methods Populations of three epiphytic orchids were monitored over three years in a Mexican humid montane forest and analysed with spatially averaged and with spatially explicit matrix metapopulation models. In the latter, population dynamics at the scale of the subpopulations (epiphytes on individual host trees) are based on detailed stage-structured observations of transition probabilities and trees are connected by a dispersal function. Key Results Population growth rates differed among trees and years. While ignoring these differences, and averaging the population matrices over trees, yields negative population growth, metapopulation models predict stable or growing populations because the trees that support growing subpopulations determine the growth of the metapopulation. Stochastic models which account for the differences among years differed only marginally from deterministic models. Population growth rates were significantly lower, and extinctions of local patches more frequent in models where higher dispersal results in reduced local fecundity compared with hypothetical models where this is not the case. The difference between the two models increased with increasing mean dispersal distance. Though recolonization events increased with dispersal distance, this could not compensate the losses due to reduced local fecundity. Conclusions For epiphytes, metapopulation models are useful to capture processes beyond the level of the single

  3. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ''diversity waves'' triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak--species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

  4. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

  5. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    DOE PAGES

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

  6. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-01-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies. PMID:26367172

  7. The population dynamics of an endemic collectible cactus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandujano, María C.; Bravo, Yolotzin; Verhulst, Johannes; Carrillo-Angeles, Israel; Golubov, Jordan

    2015-02-01

    Astrophytum is one of most collected genera in the cactus family. Around the world several species are maintained in collections and yearly, several plants are taken from their natural habitats. Populations of Astorphytum capricorne are found in the northern Chihuahuan desert, Mexico, and as many endemic cactus species, it has a highly restricted habitat. We conducted a demographic study from 2008 to 2010 of the northern populations found at Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. We applied matrix population models, included simulations, life table response experiments and descriptions of the population dynamics to evaluate the current status of the species, and detect key life table stages and demographic processes. Population growth rate decreased in both years and only 4% individual mortality can be attributed to looting, and a massive effort is needed to increase seedling recruitment and reduce adult mortality. The fate of individuals differed between years even having the same annual rainfall mainly in accentuated stasis, retrogression and high mortality in all size classes, which coupled with low seed production, no recruitment and collection of plants are the causes contributing to population decline, and hence, increase the risk in which A. capricorne populations are found. Reintroduction of seedlings and lowering adult mortality are urgently needed to revert the alarming demographic condition of A. capricorne populations.

  8. Systems approaches to study root architecture dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Cuesta, Candela; Wabnik, Krzysztof; Benková, Eva

    2013-01-01

    The plant root system is essential for providing anchorage to the soil, supplying minerals and water, and synthesizing metabolites. It is a dynamic organ modulated by external cues such as environmental signals, water and nutrients availability, salinity and others. Lateral roots (LRs) are initiated from the primary root post-embryonically, after which they progress through discrete developmental stages which can be independently controlled, providing a high level of plasticity during root system formation. Within this review, main contributions are presented, from the classical forward genetic screens to the more recent high-throughput approaches, combined with computer model predictions, dissecting how LRs and thereby root system architecture is established and developed. PMID:24421783

  9. Chain dynamics near surfaces: an unconventional approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masson, Jean-Loup; Green, Peter

    2001-03-01

    Chain dynamics near surfaces: an unconventional approach Jean-Loup Masson and Peter F. Green Graduate Program in Materials Science and Department of Chemical Engineering The University of Texas at Austin When the thickness of a polymer film is comparable to the radius of gyration, or a few radii of gyration, of the polymer chains, the properties of the film can differ appreciably from the bulk. Indeed, recent studies have documented the existence of changes of the glass transition, translational chain diffusion and the viscosity, with decreasing film thickness. For liquid films, a few tens of nanometers thick, on substrates, the disjoining pressure has a significant effect on the stability of the film. This can result on the formation of patterns reflecting fluctuations in the local film thickness. The structural, time-dependent, evolution of the film is a reflection of the effects of the disjoining pressure together with the translational dynamics of the chains. This presentation discusses the structural evolution of a thin polymer film in light of theoretical models to gain insight into the manner in which the diffusion and viscosity of the polymer changes with decreasing film thickness.

  10. Approaches to comparative effectiveness research in multimorbid populations.

    PubMed

    Maciejewski, Matthew L; Bayliss, Elizabeth A

    2014-03-01

    There is an urgent need for an evidence base to guide care for patients with multiple chronic medical conditions (MCC). Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has been touted as 1 solution to generating such evidence. However, the majority of CER topics and methods are designed to generate evidence applicable to single diseases. Generating evidence to guide the care of MCC populations requires thoughtful, and often alternative, approaches to using the existing armamentarium of CER methods. To initiate a dialog about appropriate methods for CER in MCC populations, we discuss advantages and disadvantages of experimental and quasi-experimental study designs for CER in MCC populations, estimating heterogeneity of treatment effects, developing meaningful outcome measures, and aligning morbidity measurement with relevant outcomes. Through an engaged dialog with clinicians, methodologists, and patients, evidence about strengths and limitations of alternative approaches, recommendations about preferred methods for CER in MCC can be developed to ensure that knowledge gaps are filled by valid evidence.

  11. Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland.

    PubMed

    Tornberg, Risto; Lindén, Andreas; Byholm, Patrik; Ranta, Esa; Valkama, Jari; Helle, Pekka; Lindén, Harto

    2013-04-01

    Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator-prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986-2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983-2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator-prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1-3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk-grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than

  12. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  13. A macroscopic approach to glacier dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harrison, W.D.; Raymond, C.F.; Echelmeyer, K.A.; Krimmel, R.M.

    2003-01-01

    A simple approach to glacier dynamics is explored in which there is postulated to be a relationship between area and volume with three parameters: the time for area to respond to changes in volume, a thickness scale, and an area characterizing the condition of the initial state. This approach gives a good fit to the measurements of cumulative balance and area on South Cascade Glacier from 1970-97; the area time-scale is roughly 8 years, the thickness scale about 123 m, and the 1970 area roughly 4% larger than required for adjustment with volume. Combining this relationship with a version of mass continuity expressed in terms of area and volume produces a theory of glacier area and volume response to climate in which another time constant, the volume time-scale, appears. Area and volume both respond like a damped spring and mass system. The damping of the South Cascade response is approximately critical, and the volume time-scale is roughly 48 years, six times the area time-scale. The critically damped spring and mass analogy reproduces the time dependence predicted by the more complicated traditional theory of Nye.

  14. Polymer Fluid Dynamics: Continuum and Molecular Approaches.

    PubMed

    Bird, R B; Giacomin, A J

    2016-06-01

    To solve problems in polymer fluid dynamics, one needs the equations of continuity, motion, and energy. The last two equations contain the stress tensor and the heat-flux vector for the material. There are two ways to formulate the stress tensor: (a) One can write a continuum expression for the stress tensor in terms of kinematic tensors, or (b) one can select a molecular model that represents the polymer molecule and then develop an expression for the stress tensor from kinetic theory. The advantage of the kinetic theory approach is that one gets information about the relation between the molecular structure of the polymers and the rheological properties. We restrict the discussion primarily to the simplest stress tensor expressions or constitutive equations containing from two to four adjustable parameters, although we do indicate how these formulations may be extended to give more complicated expressions. We also explore how these simplest expressions are recovered as special cases of a more general framework, the Oldroyd 8-constant model. Studying the simplest models allows us to discover which types of empiricisms or molecular models seem to be worth investigating further. We also explore equivalences between continuum and molecular approaches. We restrict the discussion to several types of simple flows, such as shearing flows and extensional flows, which are of greatest importance in industrial operations. Furthermore, if these simple flows cannot be well described by continuum or molecular models, then it is not necessary to lavish time and energy to apply them to more complex flow problems. PMID:27276553

  15. Optimal control methods for controlling bacterial populations with persister dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cogan, N. G.

    2016-06-01

    Bacterial tolerance to antibiotics is a well-known phenomena; however, only recent studies of bacterial biofilms have shown how multifaceted tolerance really is. By joining into a structured community and offering shared protection and gene transfer, bacterial populations can protect themselves genotypically, phenotypically and physically. In this study, we collect a line of research that focuses on phenotypic (or plastic) tolerance. The dynamics of persister formation are becoming better understood, even though there are major questions that remain. The thrust of our results indicate that even without detailed description of the biological mechanisms, theoretical studies can offer strategies that can eradicate bacterial populations with existing drugs.

  16. Long-term dynamics of adaptation in asexual populations.

    PubMed

    Wiser, Michael J; Ribeck, Noah; Lenski, Richard E

    2013-12-13

    Experimental studies of evolution have increased greatly in number in recent years, stimulated by the growing power of genomic tools. However, organismal fitness remains the ultimate metric for interpreting these experiments, and the dynamics of fitness remain poorly understood over long time scales. Here, we examine fitness trajectories for 12 Escherichia coli populations during 50,000 generations. Mean fitness appears to increase without bound, consistent with a power law. We also derive this power-law relation theoretically by incorporating clonal interference and diminishing-returns epistasis into a dynamical model of changes in mean fitness over time.

  17. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  18. How should environmental stress affect the population dynamics of disease?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Holt, Robert D.

    2003-01-01

    We modelled how stress affects the population dynamics of infectious disease. We were specifically concerned with stress that increased susceptibility of uninfected hosts when exposed to infection. If such stresses also reduced resources, fecundity and/or survivorship, there was a reduction in the host carrying capacity. This lowered the contact between infected and uninfected hosts, thereby decreasing transmission. In addition, stress that increased parasite mortality decreased disease. The opposing effects of stress on disease dynamics made it difficult to predict the response of disease to environmental stress. We found analytical solutions with negative, positive, convex and concave associations between disease and stress. Numerical simulations with randomly generated parameter values suggested that the impact of host-specific diseases generally declined with stress while the impact of non-specific (or open) diseases increased with stress. These results help clarify predictions about the interaction between environmental stress and disease in natural populations.

  19. Measuring the health of populations: the veil of ignorance approach.

    PubMed

    Pinto-Prades, José-Luis; Abellán-Perpiñán, José-María

    2005-01-01

    We report the results from two surveys designed to explore whether an application of Harsanyi's principle of choice form behind a veil of ignorance (VEI) can be used in order to measure the health of populations. This approach was tentatively recommended by Murray et al. (Bull. World Health Organ 2000; 78: 981-994; Summary Measures of population health: Concepts, Ethics, Measurement and Applications, WHO, 2002.) as an appropriate way of constructing summary measures of population health (SMPH) for comparative purposes. The operationalization of the VEI approach used in this paper was suggested by Nord (Summary Measures of Population Health: Concepts, Ethics, Measurement and Applications, WHO, 2002.). We test if VEI and person trade-off (PTO) methods generate similar quality-of-life weights. In addition, we compare VEI and PTO weights with individual utilities estimated by means of the conventional standard gamble (SG) and a variation of it we call double gamble. Finally, psychometric properties like feasibility, reliability, and consistency are examined. Our main findings are next: (1) VEI and PTO approaches generate very different weights; (2) it seems that differences between PTO and VEI are not due to the 'rule of rescue'; (3) the VEI resembled more a DG than a classical SG; (4) PTO, VEI, and DG exhibited good feasibility, reliability and consistency.

  20. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Three Potato Pests in Washington State.

    PubMed

    D'Auria, Elizabeth M; Wohleb, Carrie H; Waters, Timothy D; Crowder, David W

    2016-08-01

    Pest phenology models allow producers to anticipate pest outbreaks and deploy integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Phenology models are particularly useful for cropping systems with multiple economically damaging pests throughout a season. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops of Washington State, USA, are attacked by many insect pests including the potato tuberworm (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller), the beet leafhopper (Circulifer tenellus Baker), and the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae Sulzer). Each of these pests directly damages potato foliage or tubers; C. tenellus and M. persicae also transmit pathogens that can drastically reduce potato yields. We monitored the seasonal population dynamics of these pests by conducting weekly sampling on a network of commercial farms from 2007 to 2014. Using these data, we developed phenology models to characterize the seasonal population dynamics of each pest based on accumulated degree-days (DD). All three pests exhibited consistent population dynamics across seasons that were mediated by temperature. Of the three pests, C. tenellus was generally the first detected in potato crops, with 90% of adults captured by 936 DD. In contrast, populations of P. operculella and M. persicae built up more slowly over the course of the season, with 90% cumulative catch by 1,590 and 2,634 DD, respectively. Understanding these seasonal patterns could help potato producers plan their IPM strategies while allowing them to move away from calendar-based applications of insecticides. More broadly, our results show how long-term monitoring studies that explore dynamics of multiple pest species can aid in developing IPM strategies in crop systems. PMID:27271946

  1. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Three Potato Pests in Washington State.

    PubMed

    D'Auria, Elizabeth M; Wohleb, Carrie H; Waters, Timothy D; Crowder, David W

    2016-08-01

    Pest phenology models allow producers to anticipate pest outbreaks and deploy integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Phenology models are particularly useful for cropping systems with multiple economically damaging pests throughout a season. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops of Washington State, USA, are attacked by many insect pests including the potato tuberworm (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller), the beet leafhopper (Circulifer tenellus Baker), and the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae Sulzer). Each of these pests directly damages potato foliage or tubers; C. tenellus and M. persicae also transmit pathogens that can drastically reduce potato yields. We monitored the seasonal population dynamics of these pests by conducting weekly sampling on a network of commercial farms from 2007 to 2014. Using these data, we developed phenology models to characterize the seasonal population dynamics of each pest based on accumulated degree-days (DD). All three pests exhibited consistent population dynamics across seasons that were mediated by temperature. Of the three pests, C. tenellus was generally the first detected in potato crops, with 90% of adults captured by 936 DD. In contrast, populations of P. operculella and M. persicae built up more slowly over the course of the season, with 90% cumulative catch by 1,590 and 2,634 DD, respectively. Understanding these seasonal patterns could help potato producers plan their IPM strategies while allowing them to move away from calendar-based applications of insecticides. More broadly, our results show how long-term monitoring studies that explore dynamics of multiple pest species can aid in developing IPM strategies in crop systems.

  2. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  3. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

    PubMed Central

    Sabes, Philip N.

    2015-01-01

    Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

  4. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  5. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Morales, Juan M.; Moorcroft, Paul R.; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Kie, John G.; Powell, Roger A.; Merrill, Evelyn H.; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2010-01-01

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through ‘spatially informed’ movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission–fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction. PMID:20566505

  6. VCGDB: a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The data released by the 1000 Genomes Project contain an increasing number of genome sequences from different nations and populations with a large number of genetic variations. As a result, the focus of human genome studies is changing from single and static to complex and dynamic. The currently available human reference genome (GRCh37) is based on sequencing data from 13 anonymous Caucasian volunteers, which might limit the scope of genomics, transcriptomics, epigenetics, and genome wide association studies. Description We used the massive amount of sequencing data published by the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium to construct the Virtual Chinese Genome Database (VCGDB), a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population based on the whole genome sequencing data of 194 individuals. VCGDB provides dynamic genomic information, which contains 35 million single nucleotide variations (SNVs), 0.5 million insertions/deletions (indels), and 29 million rare variations, together with genomic annotation information. VCGDB also provides a highly interactive user-friendly virtual Chinese genome browser (VCGBrowser) with functions like seamless zooming and real-time searching. In addition, we have established three population-specific consensus Chinese reference genomes that are compatible with mainstream alignment software. Conclusions VCGDB offers a feasible strategy for processing big data to keep pace with the biological data explosion by providing a robust resource for genomics studies; in particular, studies aimed at finding regions of the genome associated with diseases. PMID:24708222

  7. A population memetics approach to cultural evolution in chaffinch song: meme diversity within populations.

    PubMed

    Lynch, A; Baker, A J

    1993-04-01

    We investigated cultural evolution in populations of common chaffinches (Fringilla coelebs) in the Atlantic islands (Azores, Madeira, Canaries) and neighboring continental regions (Morocco, Iberia) by employing a population memetics approach. To quantify variability within populations, we used the concept of a song meme, defined as a single syllable or a series of linked syllables capable of being transmitted. The frequency distribution of memes within populations generally fit a neutral model in which there is an equilibrium between mutation, migration, and drift, which suggests that memes are functionally equivalent. The diversity of memes of single syllables is significantly greater in the Azores compared to all other regions, consistent with higher population densities of chaffinches there. On the other hand, memes of two to five syllables have greater diversity in Atlantic island and Moroccan populations compared to their Iberian counterparts. This higher diversity emanates from a looser syntax and increased recombination in songs, presumably because of relaxed selection for distinctive songs in these peripheral and depauperate avifaunas. We urge comparative population memetic studies of other species of songbirds and predict that they will lead to a formulation of a general theory for the cultural evolution of bird song analogous to population genetics theory for biological traits. PMID:19426000

  8. Inferring the Dynamics of Effective Population Size Using Autosomal Genomes

    PubMed Central

    Hou, Zheng; Luo, Yin; Wang, Zhisheng; Zheng, Hong-Xiang; Wang, Yi; Zhou, Hang; Wu, Leqin; Jin, Li

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing technology has provided a great opportunity for inferring human demographic history by investigating changes in the effective population size (Ne). In this report, we introduce a strategy for estimating Ne dynamics, allowing the exploration of large multi-locus SNP datasets. We applied this strategy to the Phase 1 Han Chinese samples from the 1000 Genomes Project. The Han Chinese population has undergone a continuous expansion since 25,000 years ago, at first slowly from about 7,300 to 9,800 (at the end of the last glacial maximum about 15,000 YBP), then more quickly to about 46,000 (at the beginning of the Neolithic about 8,000 YBP), and then even more quickly to reach a population size of about 140,000 (recently). PMID:26832887

  9. Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations

    PubMed Central

    Santos, F. C.; Pacheco, J. M.; Lenaerts, Tom

    2006-01-01

    Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations. PMID:16484371

  10. Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.

    PubMed

    Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom

    2006-02-28

    Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations. PMID:16484371

  11. Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.; Cosner, Chris; Obaza, Adam; Jopp, Fred

    2010-01-01

    Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the reaction-diffusion mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first--the 'refuge mechanism--hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the 'dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism' is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.

  12. Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

    2005-01-01

    A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

  13. A mathematical approach to HIV infection dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ida, A.; Oharu, S.; Oharu, Y.

    2007-07-01

    In order to obtain a comprehensive form of mathematical models describing nonlinear phenomena such as HIV infection process and AIDS disease progression, it is efficient to introduce a general class of time-dependent evolution equations in such a way that the associated nonlinear operator is decomposed into the sum of a differential operator and a perturbation which is nonlinear in general and also satisfies no global continuity condition. An attempt is then made to combine the implicit approach (usually adapted for convective diffusion operators) and explicit approach (more suited to treat continuous-type operators representing various physiological interactions), resulting in a semi-implicit product formula. Decomposing the operators in this way and considering their individual properties, it is seen that approximation-solvability of the original model is verified under suitable conditions. Once appropriate terms are formulated to describe treatment by antiretroviral therapy, the time-dependence of the reaction terms appears, and such product formula is useful for generating approximate numerical solutions to the governing equations. With this knowledge, a continuous model for HIV disease progression is formulated and physiological interpretations are provided. The abstract theory is then applied to show existence of unique solutions to the continuous model describing the behavior of the HIV virus in the human body and its reaction to treatment by antiretroviral therapy. The product formula suggests appropriate discrete models describing the dynamics of host pathogen interactions with HIV1 and is applied to perform numerical simulations based on the model of the HIV infection process and disease progression. Finally, the results of our numerical simulations are visualized and it is observed that our results agree with medical and physiological aspects.

  14. Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

  15. [On the relation between encounter rate and population density: Are classical models of population dynamics justified?].

    PubMed

    Nedorezov, L V

    2015-01-01

    A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals.

  16. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

    PubMed Central

    Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

  17. Spatial structure and chaos in insect population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassell, Michael P.; Comins, Hugh N.; Mayt, Robert M.

    1991-09-01

    MOST environments are spatially subdivided, or patchy, and there has been much interest in the relationship between the dynamics of populations at the local and regional (metapopulation) scales1. Here we study mathematical models for host-parasitoid interactions, where in each generation specified fractions (µN and µp, respectively) of the host and parasitoid subpopulations in each patch move to adjacent patches; in most previous work, the movement is not localized but is to any other patch2. These simple and biologically sensible models with limited diffusive dispersal exhibit a remarkable range of dynamic behaviour: the density of the host and parasitoid subpopulations in a two-dimensional array of patches may exhibit complex patterns of spiral waves or spatially chaotic variation, they may show static 'crystal lattice' patterns, or they may become extinct. This range of behaviour is obtained with the local dynamics being deterministically unstable, with a constant host reproductive rate and no density dependence in the movement patterns. The dynamics depend on the host reproductive rate, and on the values of the parameters µN and µp. The results are relatively insensitive to the details of the interactions; we get essentially the same results from the mathematically-explicit Nicholon-Bailey model of host-parasitoid interactions, and from a very general 'cellular automaton' model in which only qualitative rules are specified. We conclude that local movement in a patchy environment can help otherwise unstable host and parasitoid populations to persist together, but that the deterministically generated spatial patterns in population density can be exceedingly complex (and sometimes indistinguishable from random environmental fluctuations).

  18. Photographic mark-recapture analysis of local dynamics within an open population of dolphins.

    PubMed

    Fearnbach, H; Durban, J; Parsons, K; Claridge, D

    2012-07-01

    Identifying demographic changes is important for understanding population dynamics. However, this requires long-term studies of definable populations of distinct individuals, which can be particularly challenging when studying mobile cetaceans in the marine environment. We collected photo-identification data from 19 years (1992-2010) to assess the dynamics of a population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) restricted to the shallow (<7 m) waters of Little Bahama Bank, northern Bahamas. This population was known to range beyond our study area, so we adopted a Bayesian mixture modeling approach to mark-recapture to identify clusters of individuals that used the area to different extents, and we specifically estimated trends in survival, recruitment, and abundance of a "resident" population with high probabilities of identification. There was a high probability (p= 0.97) of a long-term decrease in the size of this resident population from a maximum of 47 dolphins (95% highest posterior density intervals, HPDI = 29-61) in 1996 to a minimum of just 24 dolphins (95% HPDI = 14-37) in 2009, a decline of 49% (95% HPDI = approximately 5% to approximately 75%). This was driven by low per capita recruitment (average approximately 0.02) that could not compensate for relatively low apparent survival rates (average approximately 0.94). Notably, there was a significant increase in apparent mortality (approximately 5 apparent mortalities vs. approximately 2 on average) in 1999 when two intense hurricanes passed over the study area, with a high probability (p = 0.83) of a drop below the average survival probability (approximately 0.91 in 1999; approximately 0.94, on average). As such, our mark-recapture approach enabled us to make useful inference about local dynamics within an open population of bottlenose dolphins; this should be applicable to other studies challenged by sampling highly mobile individuals with heterogeneous space use.

  19. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradde, Serena; Vucelja, Marija; Tesileanu, Tiberiu; Balasubramanian, Vijay

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations oscillate, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a ``winner-take-all'' scenario, leading to a specialized spacer distribution. Bacteria can interpolate between these limiting behaviors by actively tuning their overall acquisition rate.

  20. Dynamic distributions and population declines of Golden-winged Warblers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberg, Kenneth V.; Will, Tom; Buehler, David A.; Barker Swarthout, Sara; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Chandler, Richard

    2016-01-01

    With an estimated breeding population in 2010 of 383,000 pairs, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) is among the most vulnerable and steeply declining of North American passerines. This species also has exhibited among the most dynamic breeding distributions, with populations expanding and then contracting over the past 150 years in response to regional habitat changes, interactions with closely related Blue-winged Warblers (V. cyanoptera), and possibly climate change. Since 1966, the rangewide population has declined by >70% (-2.3% per year; latest North American Breeding Bird Survey data), with much steeper declines in the Appalachian Mountains bird conservation region (-8.3% per year, 98% overall decline). Despite apparently stable or increasing populations in the northwestern part of the range (Minnesota, Manitoba), population estimates for Golden-winged Warbler have continued to decline by 18% from the decade of the 1990s to the 2000s. Population modeling predicts a further decline to roughly 37,000 individuals by 2100, with the species likely to persist only in Manitoba, Minnesota, and possibly Ontario. To delineate the present-day distribution and to identify population concentrations that could serve as conservation focus areas, we compiled rangewide survey data collected in 2000-2006 in 21 states and 3 Canadian provinces, as part of the Golden-winged Warbler Atlas Project (GOWAP), supplemented by state and provincial Breeding Bird Atlas data and more recent observations in eBird. Based on >8,000 GOWAP surveys for Golden-winged and Blue-winged warblers and their hybrids, we mapped occurrence of phenotypically pure and mixed populations in a roughly 0.5-degree grid across the species’ ranges. Hybrids and mixed Golden-winged-Blue-winged populations occurred in a relatively narrow zone across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, southern Ontario, and northern New York. Phenotypically pure Golden-winged Warbler populations occurred north of this

  1. Population growth in snow geese: a modeling approach integrating demographic and survey information.

    PubMed

    Gauthier, Gilles; Besbeas, Panagiotis; Lebreton, Jean-Dominique; Morgan, Byron J T

    2007-06-01

    There are few analytic tools available to formally integrate information coming from population surveys and demographic studies. The Kalman filter is a procedure that facilitates such integration. Based on a state-space model, we can obtain a likelihood function for the survey data using a Kalman filter, which we may then combine with a likelihood for the demographic data. In this paper, we used this combined approach to analyze the population dynamics of a hunted species, the Greater Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), and to examine the extent to which it can improve previous demographic population models. The state equation of the state-space model was a matrix population model with fecundity and regression parameters relating adult survival and harvest rate estimated in a previous capture-recapture study. The observation equation combined the output from this model with estimates from an annual spring photographic survey of the population. The maximum likelihood estimates of the regression parameters from the combined analysis differed little from the values of the original capture-recapture analysis, though their precision improved. The model output was found to be insensitive to a wide range of coefficient of variation (CV) in fecundity parameters. We found a close match between the surveyed and smoothed population size estimates generated by the Kalman filter over an 18-year period, and the estimated CV of the survey (0.078-0.150) was quite compatible with its assumed value (approximately 0.10). When we used the updated parameter values to predict future population size, the model underestimated the surveyed population size by 18% over a three-year period. However, this could be explained by a concurrent change in the survey method. We conclude that the Kalman filter is a promising approach to forecast population change because it incorporates survey information in a formal way compared with ad hoc approaches that either neglect this information or

  2. Parameter-less approaches for interpreting dynamic cellular response

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Cellular response such as cell signaling is an integral part of information processing in biology. Upon receptor stimulation, numerous intracellular molecules are invoked to trigger the transcription of genes for specific biological purposes, such as growth, differentiation, apoptosis or immune response. How complex are such specialized and sophisticated machinery? Computational modeling is an important tool for investigating dynamic cellular behaviors. Here, I focus on certain types of key signaling pathways that can be interpreted well using simple physical rules based on Boolean logic and linear superposition of response terms. From the examples shown, it is conceivable that for small-scale network modeling, reaction topology, rather than parameter values, is crucial for understanding population-wide cellular behaviors. For large-scale response, non-parametric statistical approaches have proven valuable for revealing emergent properties. PMID:25183996

  3. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  4. Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, A R E

    2003-01-01

    The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

  5. Chimera states in population dynamics: Networks with fragmented and hierarchical connectivities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hizanidis, Johanne; Panagakou, Evangelia; Omelchenko, Iryna; Schöll, Eckehard; Hövel, Philipp; Provata, Astero

    2015-07-01

    We study numerically the development of chimera states in networks of nonlocally coupled oscillators whose limit cycles emerge from a Hopf bifurcation. This dynamical system is inspired from population dynamics and consists of three interacting species in cyclic reactions. The complexity of the dynamics arises from the presence of a limit cycle and four fixed points. When the bifurcation parameter increases away from the Hopf bifurcation the trajectory approaches the heteroclinic invariant manifolds of the fixed points producing spikes, followed by long resting periods. We observe chimera states in this spiking regime as a coexistence of coherence (synchronization) and incoherence (desynchronization) in a one-dimensional ring with nonlocal coupling and demonstrate that their multiplicity depends on both the system and the coupling parameters. We also show that hierarchical (fractal) coupling topologies induce traveling multichimera states. The speed of motion of the coherent and incoherent parts along the ring is computed through the Fourier spectra of the corresponding dynamics.

  6. Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

    PubMed Central

    Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

  7. Recolonizing wolves and mesopredator suppression of coyotes: impacts on pronghorn population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Berger, Kim Murray; Conner, Mary M

    2008-04-01

    Food web theory predicts that the loss of large carnivores may contribute to elevated predation rates and, hence, declining prey populations, through the process of mesopredator release. However, opportunities to test predictions of the mesopredator release hypothesis are rare, and the extent to which changes in predation rates influence prey population dynamics may not be clear due to a lack of demographic information on the prey population of interest. We utilized spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in wolf distribution and abundance to evaluate whether mesopredator release of coyotes (Canis latrans), resulting from the extirpation of wolves (Canis lupus) throughout much of the United States, contributes to high rates of neonatal mortality in ungulates. To test this hypothesis, we contrasted causes of mortality and survival rates of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) neonates captured at wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites in western Wyoming, USA, between 2002 and 2004. We then used these data to parameterize stochastic population models to heuristically assess the impact of wolves on pronghorn population dynamics due to changes in neonatal survival. Coyote predation was the primary cause of mortality at all sites, but mortality due to coyotes was 34% lower in areas utilized by wolves (P < 0.001). Based on simulation modeling, the realized population growth rate was 0.92 based on fawn survival in the absence of wolves, and 1.06 at sites utilized by wolves. Thus, wolf restoration is predicted to shift the trajectory of the pronghorn population from a declining to an increasing trend. Our results suggest that reintroductions of large carnivores may influence biodiversity through effects on prey populations mediated by mesopredator suppression. In addition, our approach, which combines empirical data on the population of interest with information from other data sources, demonstrates the utility of using simulation modeling to more fully evaluate ecological theories by

  8. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-06-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

  9. Aphid Species and Population Dynamics Associated with Strawberry.

    PubMed

    Bernardi, D; Araujo, E S; Zawadneak, M A C; Botton, M; Mogor, A F; Garcia, M S

    2013-12-01

    Aphids are among the major pests associated with strawberries in Southern Brasil. In this study, we identified the main species that occur in strawberry fields in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. We also compared the effectiveness of different sampling methods and studied the population dynamics of aphid species during two strawberry crop cycles in the municipality of Pinhais, state of Paraná, Brasil. Chaetosiphon fragaefolii (Cockerell) and Aphis forbesi Weed were the main species associated with strawberry. The method of hit plant and the Möericke trap showed equal effectiveness to capture wingless and winged insects. The peak population of aphids in the state of Paraná occurred from September to November. This information can help producers to implement strategies to monitor and control the major aphid species that occur in strawberry culture. PMID:27193281

  10. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment.

    PubMed

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  11. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    PubMed Central

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings. PMID:26904150

  12. Population-dynamics method with a multicanonical feedback control.

    PubMed

    Nemoto, Takahiro; Bouchet, Freddy; Jack, Robert L; Lecomte, Vivien

    2016-06-01

    We discuss the Giardinà-Kurchan-Peliti population dynamics method for evaluating large deviations of time-averaged quantities in Markov processes [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 120603 (2006)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.96.120603]. This method exhibits systematic errors which can be large in some circumstances, particularly for systems with weak noise, with many degrees of freedom, or close to dynamical phase transitions. We show how these errors can be mitigated by introducing control forces within the algorithm. These forces are determined by an iteration-and-feedback scheme, inspired by multicanonical methods in equilibrium sampling. We demonstrate substantially improved results in a simple model, and we discuss potential applications to more complex systems. PMID:27415224

  13. Mosquito population dynamics from cellular automata-based simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syafarina, Inna; Sadikin, Rifki; Nuraini, Nuning

    2016-02-01

    In this paper we present an innovative model for simulating mosquito-vector population dynamics. The simulation consist of two stages: demography and dispersal dynamics. For demography simulation, we follow the existing model for modeling a mosquito life cycles. Moreover, we use cellular automata-based model for simulating dispersal of the vector. In simulation, each individual vector is able to move to other grid based on a random walk. Our model is also capable to represent immunity factor for each grid. We simulate the model to evaluate its correctness. Based on the simulations, we can conclude that our model is correct. However, our model need to be improved to find a realistic parameters to match real data.

  14. Auctions with Dynamic Populations: Efficiency and Revenue Maximization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Said, Maher

    We study a stochastic sequential allocation problem with a dynamic population of privately-informed buyers. We characterize the set of efficient allocation rules and show that a dynamic VCG mechanism is both efficient and periodic ex post incentive compatible; we also show that the revenue-maximizing direct mechanism is a pivot mechanism with a reserve price. We then consider sequential ascending auctions in this setting, both with and without a reserve price. We construct equilibrium bidding strategies in this indirect mechanism where bidders reveal their private information in every period, yielding the same outcomes as the direct mechanisms. Thus, the sequential ascending auction is a natural institution for achieving either efficient or optimal outcomes.

  15. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment.

    PubMed

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings. PMID:26904150

  16. Stabilization process of human population: a descriptive approach.

    PubMed

    Kayani, A K; Krotki, K J

    1981-01-01

    An attempt is made to inquire into the process of stabilization of a human population. The same age distribution distorted by past variations in fertility is subjected to several fixed schedules of fertility. The schedules are different from each other monotonically over a narrow range. The primary concern is with the process, almost year by year, through which the populations become stable. There is particular interest in the differential impact in the same original age distribution of the narrowly different fixed fertility schedules. The exercise is prepared in 3 stages: general background of the process of stabilization; methodology and data used; and analysis and discussion of the stabilization process. Among the several approaches through which the analysis of stable population is possible, 2 are popular: the integral equation and the projection matrix. In this presentation the interest is in evaluating the effects of fertility on the stabilization process of a population. Therefore, only 1 initial age distribution and only 1 life table but a variety of narrowly different schedules of fertility have been used. Specifically, the U.S. 1963 female population is treated as the initial population. The process of stabilization is viewed in the light of the changes in the slopes between 2 successive age groups of an age distribution. A high fertility schedule with the given initial age distribution and mortality level overcomes the oscillations more quickly than the low fertility schedule. Simulation confirms the intuitively expected positive relationship between the mean of the slope and the level of fertility. The variance of the slope distribution is an indicator of the aging of the distribution.

  17. The island syndrome and population dynamics of introduced rats.

    PubMed

    Russell, James C; Ringler, David; Trombini, Aurélien; Le Corre, Matthieu

    2011-11-01

    The island syndrome predicts directional changes in the morphology and demography of insular vertebrates, due to changes in trophic complexity and migration rates caused by island size and isolation. However, the high rate of human-mediated species introductions to some islands also increases trophic complexity, and this will reduce the perceived insularity on any such island. We test four hypotheses on the role of increased trophic complexity on the island syndrome, using introduced black rats (Rattus rattus) on two isolated coral atolls in the Mozambique Channel. Europa Island has remained relatively pristine and insular, with few species introductions, whereas Juan de Nova Island has had many species introductions, including predators and competitors of rats, anthropogenically increasing its trophic complexity. In the most insular environments, the island syndrome is expected to generate increases in body size and densities of rodents but decreases in the rates of reproduction and population cycling. Morphology and reproduction were compared using linear regression and canonical discriminant analysis, while density and population cycling were compared using spatially explicit capture-recapture analysis. Results were compared to other insular black rat populations in the Mozambique Channel and were consistent with predictions from the island syndrome. The manifestation of an island syndrome in rodents depends upon the trophic composition of a community, and may not relate to island size alone when many species additions, such as invasions, have occurred. The differing patterns of rodent population dynamics on each island provide information for future rodent eradication operations. PMID:21643994

  18. Global climate drives southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Leaper, Russell; Cooke, Justin; Trathan, Phil; Reid, Keith; Rowntree, Victoria; Payne, Roger

    2006-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series from the southwest Atlantic and the El Niño 4 region in the western Pacific were compared to an index of annual calving success of the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) breeding in Argentina. There was a strong relationship between right whale calving output and SST anomalies at South Georgia in the autumn of the previous year and also with mean El Niño 4 SST anomalies delayed by 6 years. These results extend similar observations from other krill predators and show clear linkages between global climate signals and the biological processes affecting whale population dynamics. PMID:17148385

  19. A Stochastic Super-Exponential Growth Model for Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avila, P.; Rekker, A.

    2010-11-01

    A super-exponential growth model with environmental noise has been studied analytically. Super-exponential growth rate is a property of dynamical systems exhibiting endogenous nonlinear positive feedback, i.e., of self-reinforcing systems. Environmental noise acts on the growth rate multiplicatively and is assumed to be Gaussian white noise in the Stratonovich interpretation. An analysis of the stochastic super-exponential growth model with derivations of exact analytical formulae for the conditional probability density and the mean value of the population abundance are presented. Interpretations and various applications of the results are discussed.

  20. Front acceleration by dynamic selection in Fisher population waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bénichou, O.; Calvez, V.; Meunier, N.; Voituriez, R.

    2012-10-01

    We introduce a minimal model of population range expansion in which the phenotypes of individuals present no selective advantage and differ only in their diffusion rate. We show that such neutral phenotypic variability (i.e., that does not modify the growth rate) alone can yield phenotype segregation at the front edge, even in absence of genetic noise, and significantly impact the dynamical properties of the expansion wave. We present an exact asymptotic traveling wave solution and show analytically that phenotype segregation accelerates the front propagation. The results are compatible with field observations such as invasions of cane toads in Australia or bush crickets in Britain.

  1. Periodically varying externally imposed environmental effects on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, M.; Kenkre, V. M.; Kuperman, M. N.

    2004-09-01

    Effects of externally imposed periodic changes in the environment on population dynamics are studied with the help of a simple model. The environmental changes are represented by the temporal and spatial dependence of the competition terms in a standard equation of evolution. Possible applications of the analysis are on the one hand to bacteria in Petri dishes and on the other to rodents in the context of the spread of the Hantavirus epidemic. The analysis shows that spatiotemporal structures emerge, with interesting features which depend on the interplay of separately controllable aspects of the externally imposed environmental changes.

  2. Evolution of the Known Centaurs Population - Dynamical and Thermal Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarid, Gal

    2010-10-01

    The structural and thermal evolution of small Solar system bodies may be strongly dependent on their dynamical history and environment. Objects on planet-crossing orbits are prone to gravitational perturbations that de-stabilize their orbits. Such are the Centaurs, which are the transient population, between the relatively stable trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and the short-lived Jupiter family Comets (JFCs). This may indicate that these objects experience intermediate levels of internal processing, at different periods of their lives. Examining the evolution of several these Centaur objects, both in orbital and physical parameters, can help categorize the different states and origin and evolution scenarios in the outer Solar system. Determining the dynamical evolution of each object is achieved through statistical analysis of the results of multiple N-body integrations. This is achieved by using many clones of specific objects, with known orbital elements. Statistics of large clone samples of specific objects yield valuable information about their current states and future fates. Specifically, and with greater importance to thermal evolution, we focus on the dynamical lifetimes, survivability and mean orbital elements. The latter are considered during the relatively stable and non-diffusive phase of orbital evolution. Profiles of temperature, structure and composition are calculated utilizing our robust thermal evolution code several specific objects, which represent slightly varying dynamical groups, and for different orbits of the same object, which represent specific orbital evolution pathways. This has an influence on the internal stratified structure, through an adapting thermal response of the nucleus.

  3. A Mathematical and Computational Approach for Integrating the Major Sources of Cell Population Heterogeneity

    PubMed Central

    Stamatakis, Michail; Zygourakis, Kyriacos

    2010-01-01

    Several approaches have been used in the past to model heterogeneity in bacterial cell populations, with each approach focusing on different source(s) of heterogeneity. However, a holistic approach that integrates all the major sources into a comprehensive framework applicable to cell populations is still lacking. In this work we present the mathematical formulation of a cell population master equation (CPME) that describes cell population dynamics and takes into account the major sources of heterogeneity, namely stochasticity in reaction, DNA-duplication, and division, as well as the random partitioning of species contents into the two daughter cells. The formulation also takes into account cell growth and respects the discrete nature of the molecular contents and cell numbers. We further develop a Monte Carlo algorithm for the simulation of the stochastic processes considered here. To benchmark our new framework, we first use it to quantify the effect of each source of heterogeneity on the intrinsic and the extrinsic phenotypic variability for the well-known two-promoter system used experimentally by Elowitz et al. (2002). We finally apply our framework to a more complicated system and demonstrate how the interplay between noisy gene expression and growth inhibition due to protein accumulation at the single cell level can result in complex behavior at the cell population level. The generality of our framework makes it suitable for studying a vast array of artificial and natural genetic networks. Using our Monte Carlo algorithm, cell population distributions can be predicted for the genetic architecture of interest, thereby quantifying the effect of stochasticity in intracellular reactions or the variability in the rate of physiological processes such as growth and division. Such in silico experiments can give insight into the behavior of cell populations and reveal the major sources contributing to cell population heterogeneity. PMID:20685607

  4. Understanding past, contemporary, and future dynamics of plants, populations, and communities using Sonoran Desert winter annuals.

    PubMed

    Huxman, Travis E; Kimball, Sarah; Angert, Amy L; Gremer, Jennifer R; Barron-Gafford, Greg A; Venable, D Lawrence

    2013-07-01

    Global change requires plant ecologists to predict future states of biological diversity to aid the management of natural communities, thus introducing a number of significant challenges. One major challenge is considering how the many interacting features of biological systems, including ecophysiological processes, plant life histories, and species interactions, relate to performance in the face of a changing environment. We have employed a functional trait approach to understand the individual, population, and community dynamics of a model system of Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. We have used a comprehensive approach that connects physiological ecology and comparative biology to population and community dynamics, while emphasizing both ecological and evolutionary processes. This approach has led to a fairly robust understanding of past and contemporary dynamics in response to changes in climate. In this community, there is striking variation in physiological and demographic responses to both precipitation and temperature that is described by a trade-off between water-use efficiency (WUE) and relative growth rate (RGR). This community-wide trade-off predicts both the demographic and life history variation that contribute to species coexistence. Our framework has provided a mechanistic explanation to the recent warming, drying, and climate variability that has driven a surprising shift in these communities: cold-adapted species with more buffered population dynamics have increased in relative abundance. These types of comprehensive approaches that acknowledge the hierarchical nature of biology may be especially useful in aiding prediction. The emerging, novel and nonstationary climate constrains our use of simplistic statistical representations of past plant behavior in predicting the future, without understanding the mechanistic basis of change.

  5. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    PubMed

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations. PMID:19100585

  6. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    PubMed

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations.

  7. Teaching Population Health: A Competency Map Approach to Education

    PubMed Central

    Kaprielian, Victoria S.; Silberberg, Mina; McDonald, Mary Anne; Koo, Denise; Hull, Sharon K.; Murphy, Gwen; Tran, Anh N.; Sheline, Barbara L.; Halstater, Brian; Martinez-Bianchi, Viviana; Weigle, Nancy J.; de Oliveira, Justine Strand; Sangvai, Devdutta; Copeland, Joyce; Tilson, Hugh H.; Scutchfield, F. Douglas; Michener, J. Lloyd

    2013-01-01

    A 2012 Institute of Medicine report is the latest in the growing number of calls to incorporate a population health approach in health professionals’ training. Over the last decade, Duke University, particularly its Department of Community and Family Medicine, has been heavily involved with community partners in Durham, North Carolina to improve the local community’s health. Based on these initiatives, a group of interprofessional faculty began tackling the need to fill the curriculum gap to train future health professionals in public health practice, community engagement, critical thinking, and team skills to improve population health effectively in Durham and elsewhere. The Department of Community and Family Medicine has spent years in care delivery redesign and curriculum experimentation, design, and evaluation to distinguish the skills trainees and faculty need for population health improvement and to integrate them into educational programs. These clinical and educational experiences have led to a set of competencies that form an organizational framework for curricular planning and training. This framework delineates which learning objectives are appropriate and necessary for each learning level, from novice through expert, across multiple disciplines and domains. The resulting competency map has guided Duke’s efforts to develop, implement, and assess training in population health for learners and faculty. In this article, the authors describe the competency map development process as well as examples of its application and evaluation at Duke and limitations to its use with the hope that other institutions will apply it in different settings. PMID:23524919

  8. A First Approach to Filament Dynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silva, P. E. S.; de Abreu, F. Vistulo; Simoes, R.; Dias, R. G.

    2010-01-01

    Modelling elastic filament dynamics is a topic of high interest due to the wide range of applications. However, it has reached a high level of complexity in the literature, making it unaccessible to a beginner. In this paper we explain the main steps involved in the computational modelling of the dynamics of an elastic filament. We first derive…

  9. Allele dynamics plots for the study of evolutionary dynamics in viral populations

    PubMed Central

    Steinbrück, Lars; McHardy, Alice Carolyn

    2011-01-01

    Phylodynamic techniques combine epidemiological and genetic information to analyze the evolutionary and spatiotemporal dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens, such as influenza A or human immunodeficiency viruses. We introduce ‘allele dynamics plots’ (AD plots) as a method for visualizing the evolutionary dynamics of a gene in a population. Using AD plots, we propose how to identify the alleles that are likely to be subject to directional selection. We analyze the method’s merits with a detailed study of the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza A viruses. AD plots for the major surface protein of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) and the 2009 swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) viruses show the succession of substitutions that became fixed in the evolution of the two viral populations. They also allow the early identification of those viral strains that later rise to predominance, which is important for the problem of vaccine strain selection. In summary, we describe a technique that reveals the evolutionary dynamics of a rapidly evolving population and allows us to identify alleles and associated genetic changes that might be under directional selection. The method can be applied for the study of influenza A viruses and other rapidly evolving species or viruses. PMID:20959296

  10. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2004-01-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

  11. [Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

    PubMed

    Burskiĭ, O V; Demidova, E Iu; Morkovin, A A

    2014-01-01

    We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices.

  12. [Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

    PubMed

    Burskiĭ, O V; Demidova, E Iu; Morkovin, A A

    2014-01-01

    We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices. PMID:25786310

  13. Inferring network dynamics and neuron properties from population recordings.

    PubMed

    Linaro, Daniele; Storace, Marco; Mattia, Maurizio

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the computational capabilities of the nervous system means to "identify" its emergent multiscale dynamics. For this purpose, we propose a novel model-driven identification procedure and apply it to sparsely connected populations of excitatory integrate-and-fire neurons with spike frequency adaptation (SFA). Our method does not characterize the system from its microscopic elements in a bottom-up fashion, and does not resort to any linearization. We investigate networks as a whole, inferring their properties from the response dynamics of the instantaneous discharge rate to brief and aspecific supra-threshold stimulations. While several available methods assume generic expressions for the system as a black box, we adopt a mean-field theory for the evolution of the network transparently parameterized by identified elements (such as dynamic timescales), which are in turn non-trivially related to single-neuron properties. In particular, from the elicited transient responses, the input-output gain function of the neurons in the network is extracted and direct links to the microscopic level are made available: indeed, we show how to extract the decay time constant of the SFA, the absolute refractory period and the average synaptic efficacy. In addition and contrary to previous attempts, our method captures the system dynamics across bifurcations separating qualitatively different dynamical regimes. The robustness and the generality of the methodology is tested on controlled simulations, reporting a good agreement between theoretically expected and identified values. The assumptions behind the underlying theoretical framework make the method readily applicable to biological preparations like cultured neuron networks and in vitro brain slices. PMID:22016731

  14. Artificial nighttime light changes aphid-parasitoid population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Sanders, Dirk; Kehoe, Rachel; Tiley, Katie; Bennie, Jonathan; Cruse, Dave; Davies, Thomas W.; Frank van Veen, F. J.; Gaston, Kevin J.

    2015-01-01

    Artificial light at night (ALAN) is recognized as a widespread and increasingly important anthropogenic environmental pressure on wild species and their interactions. Understanding of how these impacts translate into changes in population dynamics of communities with multiple trophic levels is, however, severely lacking. In an outdoor mesocosm experiment we tested the effect of ALAN on the population dynamics of a plant-aphid-parasitoid community with one plant species, three aphid species and their specialist parasitoids. The light treatment reduced the abundance of two aphid species by 20% over five generations, most likely as a consequence of bottom-up effects, with reductions in bean plant biomass being observed. For the aphid Megoura viciae this effect was reversed under autumn conditions with the light treatment promoting continuous reproduction through asexuals. All three parasitoid species were negatively affected by the light treatment, through reduced host numbers and we discuss induced possible behavioural changes. These results suggest that, in addition to direct impacts on species behaviour, the impacts of ALAN can cascade through food webs with potentially far reaching effects on the wider ecosystem. PMID:26472251

  15. Artificial nighttime light changes aphid-parasitoid population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Dirk; Kehoe, Rachel; Tiley, Katie; Bennie, Jonathan; Cruse, Dave; Davies, Thomas W; Frank van Veen, F J; Gaston, Kevin J

    2015-10-16

    Artificial light at night (ALAN) is recognized as a widespread and increasingly important anthropogenic environmental pressure on wild species and their interactions. Understanding of how these impacts translate into changes in population dynamics of communities with multiple trophic levels is, however, severely lacking. In an outdoor mesocosm experiment we tested the effect of ALAN on the population dynamics of a plant-aphid-parasitoid community with one plant species, three aphid species and their specialist parasitoids. The light treatment reduced the abundance of two aphid species by 20% over five generations, most likely as a consequence of bottom-up effects, with reductions in bean plant biomass being observed. For the aphid Megoura viciae this effect was reversed under autumn conditions with the light treatment promoting continuous reproduction through asexuals. All three parasitoid species were negatively affected by the light treatment, through reduced host numbers and we discuss induced possible behavioural changes. These results suggest that, in addition to direct impacts on species behaviour, the impacts of ALAN can cascade through food webs with potentially far reaching effects on the wider ecosystem.

  16. Population dynamics of microbial communities in the zebrafish gut

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jemielita, Matthew; Taormina, Michael; Burns, Adam; Hampton, Jennifer; Rolig, Annah; Wiles, Travis; Guillemin, Karen; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer

    2015-03-01

    The vertebrate intestine is home to a diverse microbial community, which plays a crucial role in the development and health of its host. Little is known about the population dynamics and spatial structure of this ecosystem, including mechanisms of growth and interactions between species. We have constructed an experimental model system with which to explore these issues, using initially germ-free larval zebrafish inoculated with defined communities of fluorescently tagged bacteria. Using light sheet fluorescence microscopy combined with computational image analysis we observe and quantify the entire bacterial community of the intestine during the first 24 hours of colonization, during which time the bacterial population grows from tens to tens of thousands of bacteria. We identify both individual bacteria and clusters of bacteria, and quantify the growth rate and spatial distribution of these distinct subpopulations. We find that clusters of bacteria grow considerably faster than individuals and are located in specific regions of the intestine. Imaging colonization by two species reveals spatial segregation and competition. These data and their analysis highlight the importance of spatial organization in the establishment of gut microbial communities, and can provide inputs to physical models of real-world ecological dynamics.

  17. Population dynamics and range expansion in nine-banded armadillos.

    PubMed

    Loughry, William J; Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; McDonough, Colleen M; Oli, Madan K

    2013-01-01

    Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992-2006) of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for γ, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for γ = 0.1, to 1.03 for γ = 1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when γ ≥ 0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with γ, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years) was independent of γ. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current, reproduction

  18. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-11-01

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

  19. Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

    PubMed

    Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

    2015-11-01

    Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be

  20. [Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

    PubMed

    Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

    2015-01-01

    The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics. PMID:26201216

  1. [Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

    PubMed

    Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

    2015-01-01

    The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

  2. Parsimonious snow model explains reindeer population dynamics and ranging behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, J.; Aanes, R.; Hansen, B. B.; Loe, L.; Severinsen, T.; Stien, A.

    2008-12-01

    Winter snow is a key factor affecting polar ecosystems. One example is the strong negative correlation of winter precipitation with fluctuations in population in some high-arctic animal populations. Ice layers within and at the base of the snowpack have particularly deleterious effects on such populations. Svalbard reindeer have small home ranges and are vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are locked, reindeer are faced with the decision of staying, living off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice. Both strategies may inhibit reproduction and increase mortality, leading to population declines. Here we assess the impact of winter snow and ice on the population dynamics of an isolated herd of Svalbard reindeer near Ny-Ålesund, monitored annually since 1978, with a retrospective analysis of the winter snowpack. Because there are no long-term observational records of snow or snow properties, such as ice layers, we must recourse to snowpack modeling. A parsimonious model of snow and ground-ice thickness is driven with daily temperature and precipitation data collected at a nearby weather station. The model uses the degree-day concept and has three adjustable parameters which are tuned to correlate model snow and ground-ice thicknesses to the limited observations available: April snow accumulation measurements on two local glaciers, and a limited number of ground-ice observations made in recent years. Parameter values used are comparable to those reported elsewhere. We find that modeled mean winter ground-ice thickness explains a significant percentage of the observed variance in reindeer population growth rate. Adding other explanatory parameters, such as modeled mean winter snowpack thickness or previous years' population size does not significanly improve the relation. Furthermore, positioning data from a small subset of reindeer show that model icing events are

  3. Population dynamics determine genetic adaptation to temperature in Daphnia.

    PubMed

    Van Doorslaer, Wendy; Stoks, Robby; Duvivier, Cathy; Bednarska, Anna; De Meester, Luc

    2009-07-01

    Rising temperatures associated with global warming present a challenge to the fate of many aquatic organisms. Although rapid evolutionary response to temperature-mediated selection may allow local persistence of populations under global warming, and therefore is a key aspect of evolutionary biology, solid proof of its occurrence is rare. In this study, we tested for genetic adaptation to an increase in temperature in the water flea Daphnia magna, a keystone species in freshwater systems, by performing a thermal selection experiment under laboratory conditions followed by the quantification of microevolutionary responses to temperature for both life-history traits as well as for intraspecific competitive strength. After three months of selection, we found a microevolutionary response to temperature in performance, but only in one of two culling regimes, highlighting the importance of population dynamics in driving microevolutionary change within populations. Furthermore, there was an evolutionary increase in thermal plasticity in performance. The results of the competition experiment were in agreement with predictions based on performance as quantified in the life table experiment and illustrate that microevolution within a short time frame has the ability to influence the outcome of intraspecific competition.

  4. Population Dynamics of Excited Atoms in Dissipative Cavities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Hong-Mei; Liu, Yu; Fang, Mao-Fa

    2016-10-01

    Population dynamics of excited atoms in dissipative cavities is investigated in this work. We present a method of controlling populations of excited atoms in dissipative cavities. For the initial state | e e> A B |00> a b , the repopulation of excited atoms can be obtained by using atom-cavity couplings and non-Markovian effects after the atomic excited energy decays to zero. For the initial state | g g> A B |11> a b , the two atoms can also be populated to the excited states from the initial ground states by using atom-cavity couplings and non-Markovian effects. And the stronger the atom-cavity coupling or the non-Markovian effect is, the larger the number of repopulation of excited atoms is. Particularly, when the atom-cavity coupling or the non-Markovian effect is very strong, the number of repopulation of excited atoms can be close to one in a short time and will tend to a steady value in a long time.

  5. Population dynamics of islet-infiltrating cells in autoimmune diabetes.

    PubMed

    Magnuson, Angela M; Thurber, Greg M; Kohler, Rainer H; Weissleder, Ralph; Mathis, Diane; Benoist, Christophe

    2015-02-01

    Type-1 diabetes in the nonobese diabetic (NOD) mouse starts with an insulitis stage, wherein a mixed population of leukocytes invades the pancreas, followed by overt diabetes once enough insulin-producing β-cells are destroyed by invading immunocytes. Little is known of the dynamics of lymphocyte movement into the pancreas during disease progression. We used the Kaede transgenic mouse, whose photoconvertible fluorescent reporter permits noninvasive labeling and subsequent tracking of immunocytes, to investigate pancreatic infiltrate dynamics and the requirement for antigen specificity during progression of autoimmune diabetes in the unmanipulated NOD mouse. Our results indicate that the insulitic lesion is very open with constant cell influx and active turnover, predominantly of B and T lymphocytes, but also CD11b(+)c(+) myeloid cells. Both naïve- and memory-phenotype lymphocytes trafficked to the insulitis, but Foxp3(+) regulatory T cells circulated less than their conventional CD4(+) counterparts. Receptor specificity for pancreatic antigens seemed irrelevant for this homing, because similar kinetics were observed in polyclonal and antigen-specific transgenic contexts. This "open" configuration was also observed after reversal of overt diabetes by anti-CD3 treatment. These results portray insulitis as a dynamic lesion at all stages of disease, continuously fed by a mixed influx of immunocytes, and thus susceptible to evolve over time in response to immunologic or environmental influences. PMID:25605891

  6. Population dynamics of islet-infiltrating cells in autoimmune diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Magnuson, Angela M.; Thurber, Greg M.; Kohler, Rainer H.; Weissleder, Ralph; Mathis, Diane; Benoist, Christophe

    2015-01-01

    Type-1 diabetes in the nonobese diabetic (NOD) mouse starts with an insulitis stage, wherein a mixed population of leukocytes invades the pancreas, followed by overt diabetes once enough insulin-producing β-cells are destroyed by invading immunocytes. Little is known of the dynamics of lymphocyte movement into the pancreas during disease progression. We used the Kaede transgenic mouse, whose photoconvertible fluorescent reporter permits noninvasive labeling and subsequent tracking of immunocytes, to investigate pancreatic infiltrate dynamics and the requirement for antigen specificity during progression of autoimmune diabetes in the unmanipulated NOD mouse. Our results indicate that the insulitic lesion is very open with constant cell influx and active turnover, predominantly of B and T lymphocytes, but also CD11b+c+ myeloid cells. Both naïve- and memory-phenotype lymphocytes trafficked to the insulitis, but Foxp3+ regulatory T cells circulated less than their conventional CD4+ counterparts. Receptor specificity for pancreatic antigens seemed irrelevant for this homing, because similar kinetics were observed in polyclonal and antigen-specific transgenic contexts. This “open” configuration was also observed after reversal of overt diabetes by anti-CD3 treatment. These results portray insulitis as a dynamic lesion at all stages of disease, continuously fed by a mixed influx of immunocytes, and thus susceptible to evolve over time in response to immunologic or environmental influences. PMID:25605891

  7. Population Dynamics of Anastrepha ludens (Loew) (Diptera: Tephritidae) on Citrus Areas in Southern Tamaulipas, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Vanoye-Eligio, V; Barrientos-Lozano, L; Pérez-Castañeda, R; Gaona-García, G; Lara-Villalon, M

    2015-12-01

    An analysis of adult population fluctuation of Anastrepha ludens (Loew) was performed in southern Tamaulipas, Mexico from 2008 to 2011. The aim was to analyze population dynamics of A. ludens and its relationships with climatic factors in the citrus region of Llera, Tamaulipas, Mexico. Population densities were weekly examined to identify variation through the year and study period. Four periods were identified according to population size, amplitude, host availability and season of the year. The correlation between population density vs. rainfall and temperature (average, minimum and maximum) was determined by linear and multiple regression analyses. Simple linear regression analysis showed that population density with minimum temperature and rainfall was the most consistent correlation, whereas in multiple regression analysis, rainfall and maximum temperature showed more consistency. A seasonal association between the availability of commercial host, climatic variation, and population peaks of A. ludens was determined. This study may have practical implications for the design of specific control strategies, monitoring, and infestation prevention based on different phases of the pest through the year. This strategy, along with the area-wide approach implemented by the Plant Protection Service may lead to an optimization of material, financial and human resources.

  8. Dynamical Criticality in the Collective Activity of a Population of Retinal Neurons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mora, Thierry; Deny, Stéphane; Marre, Olivier

    2015-02-01

    Recent experimental results based on multielectrode and imaging techniques have reinvigorated the idea that large neural networks operate near a critical point, between order and disorder. However, evidence for criticality has relied on the definition of arbitrary order parameters, or on models that do not address the dynamical nature of network activity. Here we introduce a novel approach to assess criticality that overcomes these limitations, while encompassing and generalizing previous criteria. We find a simple model to describe the global activity of large populations of ganglion cells in the rat retina, and show that their statistics are poised near a critical point. Taking into account the temporal dynamics of the activity greatly enhances the evidence for criticality, revealing it where previous methods would not. The approach is general and could be used in other biological networks.

  9. Modelling food and population dynamics in honey bee colonies.

    PubMed

    Khoury, David S; Barron, Andrew B; Myerscough, Mary R

    2013-01-01

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are increasingly in demand as pollinators for various key agricultural food crops, but globally honey bee populations are in decline, and honey bee colony failure rates have increased. This scenario highlights a need to understand the conditions in which colonies flourish and in which colonies fail. To aid this investigation we present a compartment model of bee population dynamics to explore how food availability and bee death rates interact to determine colony growth and development. Our model uses simple differential equations to represent the transitions of eggs laid by the queen to brood, then hive bees and finally forager bees, and the process of social inhibition that regulates the rate at which hive bees begin to forage. We assume that food availability can influence both the number of brood successfully reared to adulthood and the rate at which bees transition from hive duties to foraging. The model predicts complex interactions between food availability and forager death rates in shaping colony fate. Low death rates and high food availability results in stable bee populations at equilibrium (with population size strongly determined by forager death rate) but consistently increasing food reserves. At higher death rates food stores in a colony settle at a finite equilibrium reflecting the balance of food collection and food use. When forager death rates exceed a critical threshold the colony fails but residual food remains. Our model presents a simple mathematical framework for exploring the interactions of food and forager mortality on colony fate, and provides the mathematical basis for more involved simulation models of hive performance. PMID:23667418

  10. Modelling Food and Population Dynamics in Honey Bee Colonies

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Barron, Andrew B.; Myerscough, Mary R.

    2013-01-01

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are increasingly in demand as pollinators for various key agricultural food crops, but globally honey bee populations are in decline, and honey bee colony failure rates have increased. This scenario highlights a need to understand the conditions in which colonies flourish and in which colonies fail. To aid this investigation we present a compartment model of bee population dynamics to explore how food availability and bee death rates interact to determine colony growth and development. Our model uses simple differential equations to represent the transitions of eggs laid by the queen to brood, then hive bees and finally forager bees, and the process of social inhibition that regulates the rate at which hive bees begin to forage. We assume that food availability can influence both the number of brood successfully reared to adulthood and the rate at which bees transition from hive duties to foraging. The model predicts complex interactions between food availability and forager death rates in shaping colony fate. Low death rates and high food availability results in stable bee populations at equilibrium (with population size strongly determined by forager death rate) but consistently increasing food reserves. At higher death rates food stores in a colony settle at a finite equilibrium reflecting the balance of food collection and food use. When forager death rates exceed a critical threshold the colony fails but residual food remains. Our model presents a simple mathematical framework for exploring the interactions of food and forager mortality on colony fate, and provides the mathematical basis for more involved simulation models of hive performance. PMID:23667418

  11. Nonlinear dynamical system approaches towards neural prosthesis

    SciTech Connect

    Torikai, Hiroyuki; Hashimoto, Sho

    2011-04-19

    An asynchronous discrete-state spiking neurons is a wired system of shift registers that can mimic nonlinear dynamics of an ODE-based neuron model. The control parameter of the neuron is the wiring pattern among the registers and thus they are suitable for on-chip learning. In this paper an asynchronous discrete-state spiking neuron is introduced and its typical nonlinear phenomena are demonstrated. Also, a learning algorithm for a set of neurons is presented and it is demonstrated that the algorithm enables the set of neurons to reconstruct nonlinear dynamics of another set of neurons with unknown parameter values. The learning function is validated by FPGA experiments.

  12. Plasmodium vivax population structure and transmission dynamics in Sabah Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A (S) >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A (S)  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A (S) = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for

  13. Extrapolating toxic effects on individuals to the population level: the role of dynamic energy budgets.

    PubMed

    Jager, Tjalling; Klok, Chris

    2010-11-12

    The interest of environmental management is in the long-term health of populations and ecosystems. However, toxicity is usually assessed in short-term experiments with individuals. Modelling based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory aids the extraction of mechanistic information from the data, which in turn supports educated extrapolation to the population level. To illustrate the use of DEB models in this extrapolation, we analyse a dataset for life cycle toxicity of copper in the earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra. We compare four approaches for the analysis of the toxicity data: no model, a simple DEB model without reserves and maturation (the Kooijman-Metz formulation), a more complex one with static reserves and simplified maturation (as used in the DEBtox software) and a full-scale DEB model (DEB3) with explicit calculation of reserves and maturation. For the population prediction, we compare two simple demographic approaches (discrete time matrix model and continuous time Euler-Lotka equation). In our case, the difference between DEB approaches and population models turned out to be small. However, differences between DEB models increased when extrapolating to more field-relevant conditions. The DEB3 model allows for a completely consistent assessment of toxic effects and therefore greater confidence in extrapolating, but poses greater demands on the available data. PMID:20921051

  14. Impacts of environmental variability on desiccation rate, plastic responses and population dynamics of Glossina pallidipes.

    PubMed

    Kleynhans, E; Clusella-Trullas, S; Terblanche, J S

    2014-02-01

    Physiological responses to transient conditions may result in costly responses with little fitness benefits, and therefore, a trade-off must exist between the speed of response and the duration of exposure to new conditions. Here, using the puparia of an important insect disease vector, Glossina pallidipes, we examine this potential trade-off using a novel combination of an experimental approach and a population dynamics model. Specifically, we explore and dissect the interactions between plastic physiological responses, treatment-duration and -intensity using an experimental approach. We then integrate these experimental results from organismal water-balance data and their plastic responses into a population dynamics model to examine the potential relative fitness effects of simulated transient weather conditions on population growth rates. The results show evidence for the predicted trade-off for plasticity of water loss rate (WLR) and the duration of new environmental conditions. When altered environmental conditions lasted for longer durations, physiological responses could match the new environmental conditions, and this resulted in a lower WLR and lower rates of population decline. At shorter time-scales however, a mismatch between acclimation duration and physiological responses was reflected by reduced overall population growth rates. This may indicate a potential fitness cost due to insufficient time for physiological adjustments to take place. The outcomes of this work therefore suggest plastic water balance responses have both costs and benefits, and these depend on the time-scale and magnitude of variation in environmental conditions. These results are significant for understanding the evolution of plastic physiological responses and changes in population abundance in the context of environmental variability.

  15. A shape dynamical approach to holographic renormalization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomes, Henrique; Gryb, Sean; Koslowski, Tim; Mercati, Flavio; Smolin, Lee

    2015-01-01

    We provide a bottom-up argument to derive some known results from holographic renormalization using the classical bulk-bulk equivalence of General Relativity and Shape Dynamics, a theory with spatial conformal (Weyl) invariance. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to advertise the simple classical mechanism, trading off gauge symmetries, that underlies the bulk-bulk equivalence of General Relativity and Shape Dynamics to readers interested in dualities of the type of AdS/conformal field theory (CFT); and (2) to highlight that this mechanism can be used to explain certain results of holographic renormalization, providing an alternative to the AdS/CFT conjecture for these cases. To make contact with the usual semiclassical AdS/CFT correspondence, we provide, in addition, a heuristic argument that makes it plausible that the classical equivalence between General Relativity and Shape Dynamics turns into a duality between radial evolution in gravity and the renormalization group flow of a CFT. We believe that Shape Dynamics provides a new perspective on gravity by giving conformal structure a primary role within the theory. It is hoped that this work provides the first steps toward understanding what this new perspective may be able to teach us about holographic dualities.

  16. The Epidemiologic Transition: Changing Patterns of Mortality and Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    McKeown, Robert E.

    2009-01-01

    The epidemiologic transition describes changing patterns of population age distributions, mortality, fertility, life expectancy, and causes of death. A number of critiques of the theory have revealed limitations, including an insufficient account of the role of poverty in determining disease risk and mortality, a failure to distinguish adequately the risk of dying from a given cause or set of causes from the relative contributions of various causes of death to overall mortality, and oversimplification of the transition patterns, which do not fit neatly into either historical periods or geographic locations. Recent developments in epidemiologic methods reveal other limitations. A life course perspective prompts examination of changes in causal pathways across the life span when considering shifts in the age distribution of a population as described by the epidemiologic transition theory. The ecological model assumes multiple levels of determinants acting in complex and interrelated ways, with higher level determinants exhibiting emergent properties. Development, testing, and implementation of innovative approaches to reduce the risks associated with the sedentary lifestyle and hyper nutrition in developed countries should not overshadow the continuing threat from infectious diseases, especially resistant strains or newly encountered agents. Interventions must fit populations and the threats to health they experience, while anticipating changes that will emerge with success in some areas. This will require new ways of thinking that go beyond the epidemiologic transition theory. PMID:20161566

  17. Study of a mixed dispersal population dynamics model

    SciTech Connect

    Chugunova, Marina; Jadamba, Baasansuren; Kao, Chiu -Yen; Klymko, Christine F.; Thomas, Evelyn; Zhao, Bingyu

    2015-07-10

    In this study, we consider a mixed dispersal model with periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions and its corresponding linear eigenvalue problem. This model describes the time evolution of a population which disperses both locally and non-locally. We investigate how long time dynamics depend on the parameter values. Furthermore, we study the minimization of the principal eigenvalue under the constraints that the resource function is bounded from above and below, and with a fixed total integral. Biologically, this minimization problem is motivated by the question of determining the optimal spatial arrangement of favorable and unfavorable regions for the species to die out more slowly or survive more easily. Our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal favorable region tends to be a simply-connected domain. Numerous results are shown to demonstrate various scenarios of optimal favorable regions for periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions.

  18. Study of a mixed dispersal population dynamics model

    DOE PAGES

    Chugunova, Marina; Jadamba, Baasansuren; Kao, Chiu -Yen; Klymko, Christine F.; Thomas, Evelyn; Zhao, Bingyu

    2016-08-27

    In this study, we consider a mixed dispersal model with periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions and its corresponding linear eigenvalue problem. This model describes the time evolution of a population which disperses both locally and non-locally. We investigate how long time dynamics depend on the parameter values. Furthermore, we study the minimization of the principal eigenvalue under the constraints that the resource function is bounded from above and below, and with a fixed total integral. Biologically, this minimization problem is motivated by the question of determining the optimal spatial arrangement of favorable and unfavorable regions for the species to diemore » out more slowly or survive more easily. Our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal favorable region tends to be a simply-connected domain. Numerous results are shown to demonstrate various scenarios of optimal favorable regions for periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions.« less

  19. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M

    2014-06-01

    Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

  20. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished.

  1. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished. PMID:25112794

  2. Wave trains in a model of gypsy moth population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilder, J. W.; Vasquez, D. A.; Christie, I.; Colbert, J. J.

    1995-12-01

    A recent model of gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)] populations led to the observation of traveling waves in a one-dimensional spatial model. In this work, these waves are studied in more detail and their nature investigated. It was observed that when there are no spatial effects the model behaves chaotically under certain conditions. Under the same conditions, when diffusion is allowed, traveling waves develop. The biomass densities involved in the model, when examined at one point in the spatial domain, are found to correspond to a limit cycle lying on the surface of the chaotic attractor of the spatially homogeneous model. Also observed are wave trains that have modulating maxima, and which when examined at one point in the spatial domain show a quasiperiodic temporal behavior. This complex behavior is determined to be due to the interaction of the traveling wave and the chaotic background dynamics.

  3. Frog population viability under present and future climate conditions: a Bayesian state-space approach.

    PubMed

    McCaffery, R; Solonen, A; Crone, E

    2012-09-01

    1. World-wide extinctions of amphibians are at the forefront of the biodiversity crisis, with climate change figuring prominently as a potential driver of continued amphibian decline. As in other taxa, changes in both the mean and variability of climate conditions may affect amphibian populations in complex, unpredictable ways. In western North America, climate models predict a reduced duration and extent of mountain snowpack and increased variability in precipitation, which may have consequences for amphibians inhabiting montane ecosystems. 2. We used Bayesian capture-recapture methods to estimate survival and transition probabilities in a high-elevation population of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) over 10 years and related these rates to interannual variation in peak snowpack. Then, we forecasted frog population growth and viability under a range of scenarios with varying levels of change in mean and variance in snowpack. 3. Over a range of future scenarios, changes in mean snowpack had a greater effect on viability than changes in the variance of snowpack, with forecasts largely predicting an increase in population viability. Population models based on snowpack during our study period predicted a declining population. 4. Although mean conditions were more important for viability than variance, for a given mean snowpack depth, increases in variability could change a population from increasing to decreasing. Therefore, the influence of changing climate variability on populations should be accounted for in predictive models. The Bayesian modelling framework allows for the explicit characterization of uncertainty in parameter estimates and ecological forecasts, and thus provides a natural approach for examining relative contributions of mean and variability in climatic variables to population dynamics. 5. Longevity and heterogeneous habitat may contribute to the potential for this amphibian species to be resilient to increased climatic variation, and

  4. Population planning: a well co-ordinated approach required.

    PubMed

    1984-01-01

    of the region explicit or implicit incentives and/or disincentives are included in the population/family planning program. In the Philippine Population Program, incentives are explicitly given only to volunteer program workers. Disincentives are incorporated in the Internal Revenue Code and the Woman and Child Labor Code. In Indonesia preference is given to incentives rather than to disincentives. The government of Bangladesh is seriously considering the introduction of a package deal of incentives and disincentives in an all out effort to reach desired demographic objectives. In Nepal such a package is already in operation. The more recent innovative measures to encourage the 2-child child family norm in India include: increased compensation money to acceptors of sterilization and IUD and giving lottery tickets to acceptors of sterilization. There is recognition in these countries of the need for an integrated approach to population and development programs.

  5. Population planning: a well co-ordinated approach required.

    PubMed

    1984-01-01

    of the region explicit or implicit incentives and/or disincentives are included in the population/family planning program. In the Philippine Population Program, incentives are explicitly given only to volunteer program workers. Disincentives are incorporated in the Internal Revenue Code and the Woman and Child Labor Code. In Indonesia preference is given to incentives rather than to disincentives. The government of Bangladesh is seriously considering the introduction of a package deal of incentives and disincentives in an all out effort to reach desired demographic objectives. In Nepal such a package is already in operation. The more recent innovative measures to encourage the 2-child child family norm in India include: increased compensation money to acceptors of sterilization and IUD and giving lottery tickets to acceptors of sterilization. There is recognition in these countries of the need for an integrated approach to population and development programs. PMID:12313052

  6. Constrained multibody system dynamics - An automated approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamman, J. W.; Huston, R. L.

    The governing equations for constrained multibody systems are formulated in a manner suitable for their automated, numerical development and solution. Specifically, the 'closed loop' problem of multibody chain systems is addressed. The governing equations are developed by modifying dynamical equations obtained from Lagrange's form of d'Alembert's principle. This modification, which is based upon a solution of the constraint equations obtained through a 'zero eigenvalues theorem', is, in effect, a contraction of the dynamical equations. It is observed that, for a system with n generalized coordinates and m constraint equations, the coefficients in the constraint equations may be viewed as 'constraint vectors' in n-dimensional space. Then, in this setting the system itself is free to move in the n-m directions which are 'orthogonal' to the constraint vectors.

  7. Uncertain dynamical systems: A differential game approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gutman, S.

    1976-01-01

    A class of dynamical systems in a conflict situation is formulated and discussed, and the formulation is applied to the study of an important class of systems in the presence of uncertainty. The uncertainty is deterministic and the only assumption is that its value belongs to a known compact set. Asymptotic stability is fully discussed with application to variable structure and model reference control systems.

  8. Sensory dynamics of visual hallucinations in the normal population

    PubMed Central

    Pearson, Joel; Chiou, Rocco; Rogers, Sebastian; Wicken, Marcus; Heitmann, Stewart; Ermentrout, Bard

    2016-01-01

    Hallucinations occur in both normal and clinical populations. Due to their unpredictability and complexity, the mechanisms underlying hallucinations remain largely untested. Here we show that visual hallucinations can be induced in the normal population by visual flicker, limited to an annulus that constricts content complexity to simple moving grey blobs, allowing objective mechanistic investigation. Hallucination strength peaked at ~11 Hz flicker and was dependent on cortical processing. Hallucinated motion speed increased with flicker rate, when mapped onto visual cortex it was independent of eccentricity, underwent local sensory adaptation and showed the same bistable and mnemonic dynamics as sensory perception. A neural field model with motion selectivity provides a mechanism for both hallucinations and perception. Our results demonstrate that hallucinations can be studied objectively, and they share multiple mechanisms with sensory perception. We anticipate that this assay will be critical to test theories of human consciousness and clinical models of hallucination. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.17072.001 PMID:27726845

  9. Far from random: dynamical groupings among the NEO population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de la Fuente Marcos, C.; de la Fuente Marcos, R.

    2016-03-01

    Among the near-Earth object (NEO) population, there are comets and active asteroids which are sources of fragments that initially move together; in addition, some NEOs follow orbits temporarily trapped in a web of secular resonances. These facts contribute to increasing the risk of meteoroid strikes on Earth, making its proper quantification difficult. The identification and subsequent study of groups of small NEOs that appear to move in similar trajectories are necessary steps in improving our understanding of the impact risk associated with meteoroids. Here, we present results of a search for statistically significant dynamical groupings among the NEO population. Our Monte Carlo-based methodology recovers well-documented groupings like the Taurid Complex or the one resulting from the split comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, and new ones that may have been the source of past impacts. Among the most conspicuous are the Mjolnir and Ptah groups, perhaps the source of recent impact events like Almahata Sitta and Chelyabinsk, respectively. Meteoroid 2014 AA, that hit the Earth on 2014 January 2, could have its origin in a marginally significant grouping associated with Bennu. We find that most of the substructure present within the orbital domain of the NEOs is of resonant nature, probably induced by secular resonances and the Kozai mechanism that confine these objects into specific paths with well-defined perihelia.

  10. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery

    PubMed Central

    McElreath, Richard; Smaldino, Paul E.

    2015-01-01

    Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts—suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics. PMID:26308448

  11. Interplay of population genetics and dynamics in the genetic control of mosquitoes

    PubMed Central

    Alphey, Nina; Bonsall, Michael B.

    2014-01-01

    Some proposed genetics-based vector control methods aim to suppress or eliminate a mosquito population in a similar manner to the sterile insect technique. One approach under development in Anopheles mosquitoes uses homing endonuclease genes (HEGs)—selfish genetic elements (inherited at greater than Mendelian rate) that can spread rapidly through a population even if they reduce fitness. HEGs have potential to drive introduced traits through a population without large-scale sustained releases. The population genetics of HEG-based systems has been established using discrete-time mathematical models. However, several ecologically important aspects remain unexplored. We formulate a new continuous-time (overlapping generations) combined population dynamic and genetic model and apply it to a HEG that targets and knocks out a gene that is important for survival. We explore the effects of density dependence ranging from undercompensating to overcompensating larval competition, occurring before or after HEG fitness effects, and consider differences in competitive effect between genotypes (wild-type, heterozygotes and HEG homozygotes). We show that population outcomes—elimination, suppression or loss of the HEG—depend crucially on the interaction between these ecological aspects and genetics, and explain how the HEG fitness properties, the homing rate (drive) and the insect's life-history parameters influence those outcomes. PMID:24522781

  12. Copula-Based Approach to Synthetic Population Generation.

    PubMed

    Jeong, Byungduk; Lee, Wonjoon; Kim, Deok-Soo; Shin, Hayong

    2016-01-01

    Generating synthetic baseline populations is a fundamental step of agent-based modeling and simulation, which is growing fast in a wide range of socio-economic areas including transportation planning research. Traditionally, in many commercial and non-commercial microsimulation systems, the iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure has been used for creating the joint distribution of individuals when combining a reference joint distribution with target marginal distributions. Although IPF is simple, computationally efficient, and rigorously founded, it is unclear whether IPF well preserves the dependence structure of the reference joint table sufficiently when fitting it to target margins. In this paper, a novel method is proposed based on the copula concept in order to provide an alternative approach to the problem that IPF resolves. The dependency characteristic measures were computed and the results from the proposed method and IPF were compared. In most test cases, the proposed method outperformed IPF in preserving the dependence structure of the reference joint distribution. PMID:27490692

  13. Investigation of biokinetics of radioiodine with a population kinetics approach.

    PubMed

    Janzen, T; Giussani, A; Canzi, C; Gerundini, P; Oeh, U; Hoeschen, C

    2010-01-01

    The dosimetric studies required for planning individually tailored radioiodine therapy of benign thyroid pathologies may be too complex and time-demanding for many ordinary nuclear medicine departments. In this work, a preliminary population kinetics approach was applied to a model structure for iodine biokinetics in order to identify those model features that actually need to be individually investigated, in order to simplify the protocol for data collection in patients. Data from 29 patients undergoing radioiodine therapy for the treatment of the autonomous nodule syndrome were used in the analysis. The greatest inter-individual variations were observed in the parameters describing the transformation of iodide into organic iodine in the thyroid and in the kinetics of the organic form.

  14. Copula-Based Approach to Synthetic Population Generation

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Deok-Soo

    2016-01-01

    Generating synthetic baseline populations is a fundamental step of agent-based modeling and simulation, which is growing fast in a wide range of socio-economic areas including transportation planning research. Traditionally, in many commercial and non-commercial microsimulation systems, the iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure has been used for creating the joint distribution of individuals when combining a reference joint distribution with target marginal distributions. Although IPF is simple, computationally efficient, and rigorously founded, it is unclear whether IPF well preserves the dependence structure of the reference joint table sufficiently when fitting it to target margins. In this paper, a novel method is proposed based on the copula concept in order to provide an alternative approach to the problem that IPF resolves. The dependency characteristic measures were computed and the results from the proposed method and IPF were compared. In most test cases, the proposed method outperformed IPF in preserving the dependence structure of the reference joint distribution. PMID:27490692

  15. Modelling Multi-Pulse Population Dynamics from Ultrafast Spectroscopy

    PubMed Central

    van Wilderen, Luuk J. G. W.; Lincoln, Craig N.; van Thor, Jasper J.

    2011-01-01

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  16. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the Baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation.

    PubMed

    Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Eero, Margit; Blenckner, Thorsten; Tomczak, Maciej T; Niiranen, Susa

    2012-09-01

    Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.

  17. Assessing the Dynamic Behavior of Online Q&A Knowledge Markets: A System Dynamics Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jafari, Mostafa; Hesamamiri, Roozbeh; Sadjadi, Jafar; Bourouni, Atieh

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to propose a holistic dynamic model for understanding the behavior of a complex and internet-based kind of knowledge market by considering both social and economic interactions. Design/methodology/approach: A system dynamics (SD) model is formulated in this study to investigate the dynamic characteristics of…

  18. Population Genetic Diversity in the Australian 'Seascape': A Bioregion Approach.

    PubMed

    Pope, Lisa C; Riginos, Cynthia; Ovenden, Jennifer; Keyse, Jude; Blomberg, Simon P

    2015-01-01

    Genetic diversity within species may promote resilience to environmental change, yet little is known about how such variation is distributed at broad geographic scales. Here we develop a novel Bayesian methodology to analyse multi-species genetic diversity data in order to identify regions of high or low genetic diversity. We apply this method to co-distributed taxa from Australian marine waters. We extracted published summary statistics of population genetic diversity from 118 studies of 101 species and > 1000 populations from the Australian marine economic zone. We analysed these data using two approaches: a linear mixed model for standardised data, and a mixed beta-regression for unstandardised data, within a Bayesian framework. Our beta-regression approach performed better than models using standardised data, based on posterior predictive tests. The best model included region (Integrated Marine and Coastal Regionalisation of Australia (IMCRA) bioregions), latitude and latitude squared. Removing region as an explanatory variable greatly reduced model performance (delta DIC 23.4). Several bioregions were identified as possessing notably high genetic diversity. Genetic diversity increased towards the equator with a 'hump' in diversity across the range studied (-9.4 to -43.7°S). Our results suggest that factors correlated with both region and latitude play a role in shaping intra-specific genetic diversity, and that bioregion can be a useful management unit for intra-specific as well as species biodiversity. Our novel statistical model should prove useful for future analyses of within species genetic diversity at broad taxonomic and geographic scales.

  19. Dynamical evolution and spatial mixing of multiple population globular clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesperini, Enrico; McMillan, Stephen L. W.; D'Antona, Francesca; D'Ercole, Annibale

    2013-03-01

    Numerous spectroscopic and photometric observational studies have provided strong evidence for the widespread presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. In this paper, we study the long-term dynamical evolution of multiple population clusters, focusing on the evolution of the spatial distributions of the first- (FG) and second-generation (SG) stars. In previous studies, we have suggested that SG stars formed from the ejecta of FG AGB stars are expected initially to be concentrated in the cluster inner regions. Here, by means of N-body simulations, we explore the time-scales and the dynamics of the spatial mixing of the FG and the SG populations and their dependence on the SG initial concentration. Our simulations show that, as the evolution proceeds, the radial profile of the SG/FG number ratio, NSG/NFG, is characterized by three regions: (1) a flat inner part; (2) a declining part in which FG stars are increasingly dominant and (3) an outer region where the NSG/NFG profile flattens again (the NSG/NFG profile may rise slightly again in the outermost cluster regions). Until mixing is complete and the NSG/NFG profile is flat over the entire cluster, the radial variation of NSG/NFG implies that the fraction of SG stars determined by observations covering a limited range of radial distances is not, in general, equal to the SG global fraction, (NSG/NFG)glob. The distance at which NSG/NFG equals (NSG/NFG)glob is approximately between 1 and 2 cluster half-mass radii. The time-scale for complete mixing depends on the SG initial concentration, but in all cases complete mixing is expected only for clusters in advanced evolutionary phases, having lost at least 60-70 per cent of their mass due to two-body relaxation (in addition to the early FG loss due to the cluster expansion triggered by SNII ejecta and gas expulsion).The results of our simulations suggest that in many Galactic globular clusters the SG should still be more spatially concentrated than the

  20. Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

    PubMed

    Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

    2015-11-01

    Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be

  1. Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse)

    PubMed Central

    Erguler, Kamil; Smith-Unna, Stephanie E.; Waldock, Joanna; Proestos, Yiannis; Christophides, George K.; Lelieveld, Jos; Parham, Paul E.

    2016-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations. PMID:26871447

  2. Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse).

    PubMed

    Erguler, Kamil; Smith-Unna, Stephanie E; Waldock, Joanna; Proestos, Yiannis; Christophides, George K; Lelieveld, Jos; Parham, Paul E

    2016-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations. PMID:26871447

  3. Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse).

    PubMed

    Erguler, Kamil; Smith-Unna, Stephanie E; Waldock, Joanna; Proestos, Yiannis; Christophides, George K; Lelieveld, Jos; Parham, Paul E

    2016-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations.

  4. Environmental effects on cephalopod population dynamics: implications for management of fisheries.

    PubMed

    Rodhouse, Paul G K; Pierce, Graham J; Nichols, Owen C; Sauer, Warwick H H; Arkhipkin, Alexander I; Laptikhovsky, Vladimir V; Lipiński, Marek R; Ramos, Jorge E; Gras, Michaël; Kidokoro, Hideaki; Sadayasu, Kazuhiro; Pereira, João; Lefkaditou, Evgenia; Pita, Cristina; Gasalla, Maria; Haimovici, Manuel; Sakai, Mitsuo; Downey, Nicola

    2014-01-01

    Cephalopods are a relatively small class of molluscs (~800 species), but they support some large industrial scale fisheries and numerous small-scale, local, artisanal fisheries. For several decades, landings of cephalopods globally have grown against a background of total finfish landings levelling off and then declining. There is now evidence that in recent years, growth in cephalopod landings has declined. The commercially exploited cephalopod species are fast-growing, short-lived ecological opportunists. Annual variability in abundance is strongly influenced by environmental variability, but the underlying causes of the links between environment and population dynamics are poorly understood. Stock assessment models have recently been developed that incorporate environmental processes that drive variability in recruitment, distribution and migration patterns. These models can be expected to improve as more, and better, data are obtained on environmental effects and as techniques for stock identification improve. A key element of future progress will be improved understanding of trophic dynamics at all phases in the cephalopod life cycle. In the meantime, there is no routine stock assessment in many targeted fisheries or in the numerous by-catch fisheries for cephalopods. There is a particular need for a precautionary approach in these cases. Assessment in many fisheries is complicated because cephalopods are ecological opportunists and stocks appear to have benefited from the reduction of key predator by overexploitation. Because of the complexities involved, ecosystem-based fisheries management integrating social, economic and ecological considerations is desirable for cephalopod fisheries. An ecological approach to management is routine in many fisheries, but to be effective, good scientific understanding of the relationships between the environment, trophic dynamics and population dynamics is essential. Fisheries and the ecosystems they depend on can only be

  5. Dynamics of Populations of Planetary Systems (IAU C197)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knezevic, Zoran; Milani, Andrea

    2005-05-01

    population of asteroids in the 2:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter revised Miroslav Broz, D. Vokrouhlicky, F. Roig, D. Nesvorny, W. F. Bottke and A. Morbidelli; 22. On the reliability of computation of maximum Lyapunov Characteristic Exponents for asteroids Zoran Knezevic and Slobodan Ninkovic; 23. Nekhoroshev stability estimates for different models of the Trojan asteroids Christos Efthymiopoulos; 24. The role of the resonant 'stickiness' in the dynamical evolution of Jupiter family comets A. Alvarez-Canda and F. Roig; 25. Regimes of stability and scaling relations for the removal time in the asteroid belt: a simple kinetic model and numerical tests Mihailo Cubrovic; 26. Virtual asteroids and virtual impactors Andrea Milani; 27. Asteroid population models Alessandro Morbidelli; 28. Linking Very Large Telescope asteroid observations M. Granvik, K. Muinonen, J. Virtanen, M. Delbó, L. Saba, G. De Sanctis, R. Morbidelli, A. Cellino and E. Tedesco; 29. Collision orbits and phase transition for 2004 AS1 at discovery Jenni Virtanen, K. Muinonen, M. Granvik and T. Laakso; 30. The size of collision solutions in orbital elements space G. B. Valsecchi, A. Rossi, A. Milani and S. R. Chesley; 31. Very short arc orbit determination: the case of asteroid 2004 FU162 Steven R. Chesley; 32. Nonlinear impact monitoring: 2-dimensional sampling Giacomo Tommei; 33. Searching for gravity assisted trajectories to accessible near-Earth asteroids Stefan Berinde; 34. KLENOT - Near Earth and other unusual objects observations Michal Kocer, Jana Tichá and M. Tichy; 35. Transport of comets to the Inner Solar System Hans Rickman; 36. Nongravitational Accelerations on Comets Steven R. Chesley and Donald K. Yeomans; 37. Interaction of planetesimals with the giant planets and the shaping of the trans-Neptunian belt Harold F. Levison and Alessandro Morbidelli; 38. Transport of comets to the outer p

  6. A qualitative approach for recovering relative depths in dynamic scenes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haynes, S. M.; Jain, R.

    1987-01-01

    This approach to dynamic scene analysis is a qualitative one. It computes relative depths using very general rules. The depths calculated are qualitative in the sense that the only information obtained is which object is in front of which others. The motion is qualitative in the sense that the only required motion data is whether objects are moving toward or away from the camera. Reasoning, which takes into account the temporal character of the data and the scene, is qualitative. This approach to dynamic scene analysis can tolerate imprecise data because in dynamic scenes the data are redundant.

  7. Eukaryotic transcriptional dynamics: from single molecules to cell populations

    PubMed Central

    Coulon, Antoine; Chow, Carson C.; Singer, Robert H.; Larson, Daniel R.

    2013-01-01

    Transcriptional regulation is achieved through combinatorial interactions between regulatory elements in the human genome and a vast range of factors that modulate the recruitment and activity of RNA polymerase. Experimental approaches for studying transcription in vivo now extend from single-molecule techniques to genome-wide measurements. Parallel to these developments is the need for testable quantitative and predictive models for understanding gene regulation. These conceptual models must also provide insight into the dynamics of transcription and the variability that is observed at the single-cell level. In this Review, we discuss recent results on transcriptional regulation and also the models those results engender. We show how a non-equilibrium description informs our view of transcription by explicitly considering time-and energy-dependence at the molecular level. PMID:23835438

  8. A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, Jason M.; Wilberg, Michael J.; Adams, Jean V.; Jones, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The control of invasive sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.

  9. Transformational Education for Psychotherapy and Counselling: A Relational Dynamic Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Macaskie, Jane; Meekums, Bonnie; Nolan, Greg

    2013-01-01

    An evolving relational dynamic approach to psychotherapy and counselling education is described. Key themes integrated within the approach are the learning community and transformational relationships. Learning is a reciprocal change process involving students, teachers, supervisors and therapists in overlapping learning communities. Drawing on…

  10. Evolutionary dynamics of collective action in spatially structured populations.

    PubMed

    Peña, Jorge; Nöldeke, Georg; Lehmann, Laurent

    2015-10-01

    Many models proposed to study the evolution of collective action rely on a formalism that represents social interactions as n-player games between individuals adopting discrete actions such as cooperate and defect. Despite the importance of spatial structure in biological collective action, the analysis of n-player games games in spatially structured populations has so far proved elusive. We address this problem by considering mixed strategies and by integrating discrete-action n-player games into the direct fitness approach of social evolution theory. This allows to conveniently identify convergence stable strategies and to capture the effect of population structure by a single structure coefficient, namely, the pairwise (scaled) relatedness among interacting individuals. As an application, we use our mathematical framework to investigate collective action problems associated with the provision of three different kinds of collective goods, paradigmatic of a vast array of helping traits in nature: "public goods" (both providers and shirkers can use the good, e.g., alarm calls), "club goods" (only providers can use the good, e.g., participation in collective hunting), and "charity goods" (only shirkers can use the good, e.g., altruistic sacrifice). We show that relatedness promotes the evolution of collective action in different ways depending on the kind of collective good and its economies of scale. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for relatedness, the kind of collective good, and the economies of scale in theoretical and empirical studies of the evolution of collective action. PMID:26151588

  11. Evolutionary dynamics of collective action in spatially structured populations.

    PubMed

    Peña, Jorge; Nöldeke, Georg; Lehmann, Laurent

    2015-10-01

    Many models proposed to study the evolution of collective action rely on a formalism that represents social interactions as n-player games between individuals adopting discrete actions such as cooperate and defect. Despite the importance of spatial structure in biological collective action, the analysis of n-player games games in spatially structured populations has so far proved elusive. We address this problem by considering mixed strategies and by integrating discrete-action n-player games into the direct fitness approach of social evolution theory. This allows to conveniently identify convergence stable strategies and to capture the effect of population structure by a single structure coefficient, namely, the pairwise (scaled) relatedness among interacting individuals. As an application, we use our mathematical framework to investigate collective action problems associated with the provision of three different kinds of collective goods, paradigmatic of a vast array of helping traits in nature: "public goods" (both providers and shirkers can use the good, e.g., alarm calls), "club goods" (only providers can use the good, e.g., participation in collective hunting), and "charity goods" (only shirkers can use the good, e.g., altruistic sacrifice). We show that relatedness promotes the evolution of collective action in different ways depending on the kind of collective good and its economies of scale. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for relatedness, the kind of collective good, and the economies of scale in theoretical and empirical studies of the evolution of collective action.

  12. Prediction of population with Alzheimer’s disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model

    PubMed Central

    Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. Aim The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. Methods For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Results Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. Conclusion System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions. PMID:27418826

  13. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  14. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

    2012-08-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. PMID:22624702

  15. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

    2012-08-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  16. Variation in the local population dynamics of the short-lived Opuntia macrorhiza (Cactaceae).

    PubMed

    Haridas, C V; Keeler, Kathleen H; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2015-03-01

    Spatiotemporal variation in demographic rates can have profound effects for population persistence, especially for dispersal-limited species living in fragmented landscapes. Long-term studies of plants in such habitats help with understanding the impacts of fragmentation on population persistence but such studies are rare. In this work, we reanalyzed demographic data from seven years of the short-lived cactus Opuntia macrorhiza var. macrorhiza at five plots in Boulder, Colorado. Previous work combining data from all years and all plots predicted a stable population (deterministic log lamda approximately 0). This approach assumed that all five plots were part of a single population. Since the plots were located in a suburban-agricultural interface separated by highways, grazing lands, and other barriers, and O. macrorhiza is likely dispersal limited, we analyzed the dynamics of each plot separately using stochastic matrix models assuming each plot represented a separate population. We found that the stochastic population growth rate log lamdaS varied widely between populations (log lamdaS = 0.1497, 0.0774, -0.0230, -0.2576, -0.4989). The three populations with the highest growth rates were located close together in space, while the two most isolated populations had the lowest growth rates suggesting that dispersal between populations is critical for the population viability of O. macrorhiza. With one exception, both our prospective (stochastic elasticity) and retrospective (stochastic life table response experiments) analysis suggested that means of stasis and growth, especially of smaller plants, were most important for population growth rate. This is surprising because recruitment is typically the most important vital rate in a short-lived species such as O. macrorhiza. We found that elasticity to the variance was mostly negligible, suggesting that O. macrorhiza populations are buffered against large temporal variation. Finally, single-year elasticities to means

  17. The habits of highly effective phages: population dynamics as a framework for identifying therapeutic phages.

    PubMed

    Bull, James J; Gill, Jason J

    2014-01-01

    The use of bacteriophages as antibacterial agents is being actively researched on a global scale. Typically, the phages used are isolated from the wild by plating on the bacteria of interest, and a far larger set of candidate phages is often available than can be used in any application. When an excess of phages is available, how should the best phages be identified? Here we consider phage-bacterial population dynamics as a basis for evaluating and predicting phage success. A central question is whether the innate dynamical properties of phages are the determinants of success, or instead, whether extrinsic, indirect effects can be responsible. We address the dynamical perspective, motivated in part by the absence of dynamics in previously suggested principles of phage therapy. Current mathematical models of bacterial-phage dynamics do not capture the realities of in vivo dynamics, nor is this likely to change, but they do give insight to qualitative properties that may be generalizable. In particular, phage adsorption rate may be critical to treatment success, so understanding the effects of the in vivo environment on host availability may allow prediction of useful phages prior to in vivo experimentation. Principles for predicting efficacy may be derived by developing a greater understanding of the in vivo system, or such principles could be determined empirically by comparing phages with known differences in their dynamic properties. The comparative approach promises to be a powerful method of discovering the key to phage success. We offer five recommendations for future study: (i) compare phages differing in treatment efficacy to identify the phage properties associated with success, (ii) assay dynamics in vivo, (iii) understand mechanisms of bacterial escape from phages, (iv) test phages in model infections that are relevant to the intended clinical applications, and (v) develop new classes of models for phage growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

  18. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF AMBIENT AND ALTERED EARTHWORM COMMUNITIES IN ROW-CROP AGROECOSYSTEMS IN OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although earthworms are known to influence agroecosystem processes, there are relatively few long-term studies addressing population dynamics under cropping systems in which earthworm populations were intentionally altered. We assessed earthworm communities from fall 1994 to spr...

  19. Molecular Approaches to Understanding C & N Dynamics in MArine Sediments

    SciTech Connect

    Arturo Massol; James Tiedje; Jizhong Zhou; Allan Devol

    2007-05-16

    Continental margin sediments constitute only about 10% of the total sediment surface area in the world’s oceans, nevertheless they are the dominant sites of nitrogen (N) cycling. Recent studies suggest that the oceanic nitrogen budget is unbalanced, primarily due to a higher nitrogen removal rate in contrast to the fixation rate, and it has been suggested that denitrification activity contributes significantly to this imbalance. Although denitrification in marine environments has been studied intensively at the process level, little is known about the species abundance, composition, distribution, and functional differences of the denitrifying population. Understanding the diversity of microbial populations in marine environments, their responses to various environmental factors such as NO3-, and how this impact the rate of denitrification is critical to predict global N dynamics. Environmental Microbiology has the prompt to study the influence of each microbial population on a biogeochemical process within a given ecosystem. Culture-dependent and –independent techniques using nucleic acid probes can access the identity and activity of cultured and uncultured microorganisms. Nucleic acid probes can target distintict genes which set phylogenetic relationships, such as rDNA 16S, DNA gyrase (gyrB) and RNA polymerase sigma 70 factor (rpoD). In the other hand, the genetic capabilities and their expression could be tracked using probes that target several functional genes, such as nirS, nirK, nosZ, and nifH, which are genes involved in denitrification. Selective detection of cells actively expressing functional genes within a community using In Situ Reverse Transcription-PCR (ISRT-PCR) could become a powerful culture-independent technique in microbial ecology. Here we describe an approach to study the expression of nirS genes in denitrifying bacteria. Pure cultures of Pseudomonas stutzeri and Paracoccus denitrificans, as well as co-cultures with non

  20. [New approaches to the measurement of population internal spatial mobility].

    PubMed

    Courgeau, D

    1990-08-01

    This work argues for a new and broader approach to measurement of internal spatial mobility that would place it in the context of interaction with other social processes. Spatial mobility is not an isolated event that can be considered an independent variable; it is instead a process that can only be fully understood through its interaction with the other demographic, economic, political, and social elements that form part of the life of a human being. This work attempts to demonstrate the necessity of considering changes in these processes simultaneously, and briefly describes different methods of measurement. The study of migration has traditionally focused on a restricted concept of change of residence of individuals and has ignored other forms of population movement, such as commuting or repeated short-term movements not entailing permanent change of residence. Explanatory models of migration have been essentially cross-sectional, but a longitudinal approach is needed to analyze spatial mobility simultaneously with other events in the family and professional life. Retrospective studies may provide data on events in the past. They have the advantage of requiring only 1 visit, but the disadvantage that interviews may be quite lengthy. Some attempts to verify the quality of data collected in comprehensive retrospective biographical surveys in Belgium have yielded promising results. Respondents appear to remember the order of events better than the exact dates. It is more difficult to conduct retrospective surveys in developing countries because of the usual lack of population registers and other documentation. Prospective surveys appear more appropriate for obtaining longitudinal data on spatial mobility, but difficulties of following the sample for long periods of time then arise. Visits must be repeated at short enough intervals to avoid errors of memory, and arrangements must be made in advance for locating respondents who migrate. A hypothetical example of

  1. Comparative Population Dynamics of Two Closely Related Species Differing in Ploidy Level

    PubMed Central

    Černá, Lucie; Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2013-01-01

    Background Many studies compare the population dynamics of single species within multiple habitat types, while much less is known about the differences in population dynamics in closely related species in the same habitat. Additionally, comparisons of the effect of habitat types and species are largely missing. Methodology and Principal Findings We estimated the importance of the habitat type and species for population dynamics of plants. Specifically, we compared the dynamics of two closely related species, the allotetraploid species Anthericum liliago and the diploid species Anthericum ramosum, occurring in the same habitat type. We also compared the dynamics of A. ramosum in two contrasting habitats. We examined three populations per species and habitat type. The results showed that single life history traits as well as the mean population dynamics of A. liliago and A. ramosum from the same habitat type were more similar than the population dynamics of A. ramosum from the two contrasting habitats. Conclusions Our findings suggest that when transferring knowledge regarding population dynamics between populations, we need to take habitat conditions into account, as these conditions appear to be more important than the species involved (ploidy level). However, the two species differ significantly in their overall population growth rates, indicating that the ploidy level has an effect on species performance. In contrast to what has been suggested by previous studies, we observed a higher population growth rate in the diploid species. This is in agreement with the wider range of habitats occupied by the diploid species. PMID:24116057

  2. Nanoplankton population dynamics and dissolved oxygen change across the Bay of Izmir by neural networks.

    PubMed

    Sunlu, F S; Demir, I; Onkal Engin, G; Buyukisik, B; Sunlu, U; Koray, T; Kukrer, S

    2009-06-01

    The bay of Izmir, which is the biggest harbor on the Aegean Sea, is of upmost economical importance for Izmir, the third largest city in Turkey. Most of the studies carried out focused on the effects of intensive industrial activity and agricultural production on the bay pollution within the region. These studies, most of the time, are limited to monitoring the level of pollution. However, it is believed that these studies should be supported with models and statistical analysis techniques, as the models, especially the prediction ones, provide an important approach to assessing risk and assessment. In this study, neural network analysis was used to construct prediction models for nanoplankton population change with nutrients and other environmentally important parameters. The results indicated that, using data over a 52 week period, it is possible to predict nanoplankton population dynamics and dissolved oxygen change for the future.

  3. Approaches to Dynamic Decluttering of Cartographic Displays

    SciTech Connect

    Sorokine, Alexandre; Tuttle, Mark A; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2008-01-01

    Most cartographers and map designers are familiar with the problem of congestion of symbols on maps and cartographic displays. Geographic objects are often clustered in some areas and at the same time the remaining map space is left virtually empty. One example of this problem is the representation of networks such as electric grids, transportation, or communication networks. The elements of the networks are typically clustered around highly populated areas while the rest of the map contains relatively few nodes, links, and other features. In this study we are investigating the applicability of several continuous geometric transformations to reduce the clutter on maps and cartographic displays. The techniques tested include map projections with customized parameters, perspective transformation of the map plane, fish-eye, and a diffusion-based algorithm for equalizing feature density. The map space is transformed so that a user can discern details in the areas with high density of the features while preserving the larger context and links between local and more general contexts. We use animation to provide the user with more visual clues and simplify comprehension of the transformed map. The study shows that the proposed techniques are useful for improving graphical efficiency of cartographic displays and produce visually appealing results. The choice of a specific decluttering method depends upon the purpose, geometric configuration of the portrayed objects, and display device resolution.

  4. Fluctuation Relations of Fitness and Information in Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, Tetsuya J.; Sughiyama, Yuki

    2015-12-01

    Phenotype switching with and without sensing environment is a common strategy of organisms to survive in a fluctuating environment. Understanding the evolutionary advantages of switching and sensing requires a quantitative evaluation of their fitness gain and its fluctuation together with the conditions for the switching and sensing strategies being adapted to a given environment. In this work, by using a pathwise formulation of the population dynamics, we show that the optimal switching strategy is characterized by a consistency condition for time-forward and backward path probabilities. The formulation also clarifies the underlying information-theoretic aspect of selection as a passive information compression. The loss of fitness by a suboptimal strategy is also shown to satisfy a fluctuation relation, which provides us with the information on how environmental fluctuation impacts the advantages of the optimal strategy. These results are naturally extended to the situation that organisms can use an environmental signal by actively sensing the environment. The fluctuation relations of the fitness gain by sensing are derived in which the multivariate mutual information among the phenotype, the environment, and the signal plays the role to quantify the relevant information in the signal for the fitness gain.

  5. Population dynamics of a pathogen: the conundrum of vivax malaria

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Building a mathematical model of population dynamics of pathogens within their host involves considerations of factors similar to those in ecology, as pathogens can prey on cells in the host. But within the multicellular host, attacked cell types are integrated with other cellular systems, which in turn intervene in the infection. For example, immune responses attempt to sense and then eliminate or contain pathogens, and homeostatic mechanisms try to compensate for cell loss. This review focuses on modeling applied to malarias, diseases caused by single-cell eukaryote parasites that infect red blood cells, with special concern given to vivax malaria, a disease often thought to be benign (if sometimes incapacitating) because the parasite only attacks a small proportion of red blood cells, the very youngest ones. However, I will use mathematical modeling to argue that depletion of this pool of red blood cells can be disastrous to the host if growth of the parasite is not vigorously check by host immune responses. Also, modeling can elucidate aspects of new field observations that indicate that vivax malaria is more dangerous than previously thought. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12551-010-0034-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:20730124

  6. Algebraic approach to electronic spectroscopy and dynamics.

    PubMed

    Toutounji, Mohamad

    2008-04-28

    Lie algebra, Zassenhaus, and parameter differentiation techniques are utilized to break up the exponential of a bilinear Hamiltonian operator into a product of noncommuting exponential operators by the virtue of the theory of Wei and Norman [J. Math. Phys. 4, 575 (1963); Proc. Am. Math. Soc., 15, 327 (1964)]. There are about three different ways to find the Zassenhaus exponents, namely, binomial expansion, Suzuki formula, and q-exponential transformation. A fourth, and most reliable method, is provided. Since linearly displaced and distorted (curvature change upon excitation/emission) Hamiltonian and spin-boson Hamiltonian may be classified as bilinear Hamiltonians, the presented algebraic algorithm (exponential operator disentanglement exploiting six-dimensional Lie algebra case) should be useful in spin-boson problems. The linearly displaced and distorted Hamiltonian exponential is only treated here. While the spin-boson model is used here only as a demonstration of the idea, the herein approach is more general and powerful than the specific example treated. The optical linear dipole moment correlation function is algebraically derived using the above mentioned methods and coherent states. Coherent states are eigenvectors of the bosonic lowering operator a and not of the raising operator a(+). While exp(a(+)) translates coherent states, exp(a(+)a(+)) operation on coherent states has always been a challenge, as a(+) has no eigenvectors. Three approaches, and the results, of that operation are provided. Linear absorption spectra are derived, calculated, and discussed. The linear dipole moment correlation function for the pure quadratic coupling case is expressed in terms of Legendre polynomials to better show the even vibronic transitions in the absorption spectrum. Comparison of the present line shapes to those calculated by other methods is provided. Franck-Condon factors for both linear and quadratic couplings are exactly accounted for by the herein calculated

  7. Algebraic approach to electronic spectroscopy and dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toutounji, Mohamad

    2008-04-01

    Lie algebra, Zassenhaus, and parameter differentiation techniques are utilized to break up the exponential of a bilinear Hamiltonian operator into a product of noncommuting exponential operators by the virtue of the theory of Wei and Norman [J. Math. Phys. 4, 575 (1963); Proc. Am. Math. Soc., 15, 327 (1964)]. There are about three different ways to find the Zassenhaus exponents, namely, binomial expansion, Suzuki formula, and q-exponential transformation. A fourth, and most reliable method, is provided. Since linearly displaced and distorted (curvature change upon excitation/emission) Hamiltonian and spin-boson Hamiltonian may be classified as bilinear Hamiltonians, the presented algebraic algorithm (exponential operator disentanglement exploiting six-dimensional Lie algebra case) should be useful in spin-boson problems. The linearly displaced and distorted Hamiltonian exponential is only treated here. While the spin-boson model is used here only as a demonstration of the idea, the herein approach is more general and powerful than the specific example treated. The optical linear dipole moment correlation function is algebraically derived using the above mentioned methods and coherent states. Coherent states are eigenvectors of the bosonic lowering operator a and not of the raising operator a+. While exp(a +) translates coherent states, exp(a +a+) operation on coherent states has always been a challenge, as a+ has no eigenvectors. Three approaches, and the results, of that operation are provided. Linear absorption spectra are derived, calculated, and discussed. The linear dipole moment correlation function for the pure quadratic coupling case is expressed in terms of Legendre polynomials to better show the even vibronic transitions in the absorption spectrum. Comparison of the present line shapes to those calculated by other methods is provided. Franck-Condon factors for both linear and quadratic couplings are exactly accounted for by the herein calculated linear

  8. Immunosurveillance and the evaluation of national immunization programmes: a population-based approach.

    PubMed Central

    De Melker, H. E.; Conyn-van Spaendonck, M. A.

    1998-01-01

    Mass vaccination can change the epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases. It may result in a limited persistence of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and a higher mean age of infection, which may lead to a greater risk of complications. The epidemiological situation should be monitored and immunosurveillance based on the assessment of specific antibodies against vaccine-preventable diseases in human serum is one of the tools. In order to estimate the immunity of the Dutch population reliably, a large-scale, population-based, collection of serum samples was established (8359 sera in a nation-wide sampling and 1589 sera from municipalities with low vaccine coverage). In contrast to collecting residual sera from laboratories, this approach gains extensive information by means of a questionnaire regarding the determinants of the immune status and the risk factors for the transmission of infectious diseases in general. The population-based approach gives a better guarantee that the data are representative than collecting sera from laboratories does. PMID:10030714

  9. Interaction Assessment: A modeling tool for predicting population dynamics from field data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, John M.; Duda, Jeffrey J.; Kirchhoff, Matt D.; Freeman, D. Carl

    2006-01-01

    Interaction Assessment (INTASS) is a field and analytic methodology for constructing population dynamics models. Because data collected in generating a model for one species comprise much of the information needed for other species, a small increase in effort can result in simultaneous expressions for the dynamics of multiple species. These expressions can be used to simulate whole community responses to environmental change, including management actions. Since publication of the most recent paper in this series, the INTASS methodology has undergone a large number of developments. These include the use of conceptual models to direct field and modeling efforts and incorporation of an information theoretic approach to model selection. We review these modifications and additions, applying them to a population of Sitka black-tailed deer (Odocoilius hemionis) in Alaska and to cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) at the Desert Experimental Range in Utah. In both cases, useful information about the species’ ecology and population trends was ascertained. INTASS is portable across a wide range of taxa, habitats and management situations.

  10. Agents: An approach for dynamic process modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grohmann, Axel; Kopetzky, Roland; Lurk, Alexander

    1999-03-01

    With the growing amount of distributed and heterogeneous information and services, conventional information systems have come to their limits. This gave rise to the development of a Multi-Agent System (the "Logical Client") which can be used in complex information systems as well as in other advanced software systems. Computer agents are proactive, reactive and social. They form a community of independent software components that can communicate and co-operate in order to accomplish complex tasks. Thus the agent-oriented paradigm provides a new and powerful approach to programming distributed systems. The communication framework developed is based on standards like CORBA, KQML and KIF. It provides an embedded rule based system to find adequate reactions to incoming messages. The macro-architecture of the Logical Client consists of independent agents and uses artificial intelligence to cope with complex patterns of communication and actions. A set of system agents is also provided, including the Strategy Service as a core component for modelling processes at runtime, the Computer Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW) Component for supporting remote co-operation between human users and the Repository for managing and hiding the file based data flow in heterogeneous networks. This architecture seems to be capable of managing complexity in information systems. It is also being implemented in a complex simulation system that monitors and simulates the environmental radioactivity in the country Baden-Württemberg.

  11. From home range dynamics to population cycles: validation and realism of a common vole population model for pesticide risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wang, Magnus

    2013-04-01

    Despite various attempts to establish population models as standard tools in pesticide risk assessment, population models still receive limited acceptance by risk assessors and authorities in Europe. A main criticism of risk assessors is that population models are often not, or not sufficiently, validated. Hence the realism of population-level risk assessments conducted with such models remains uncertain. We therefore developed an individual-based population model for the common vole, Microtus arvalis, and demonstrate how population models can be validated in great detail based on published data. The model is developed for application in pesticide risk assessment, therefore, the validation covers all areas of the biology of the common vole that are relevant for the analysis of potential effects and recovery after application of pesticides. Our results indicate that reproduction, survival, age structure, spatial behavior, and population dynamics reproduced from the model are comparable to field observations. Also interannual population cycles, which are frequently observed in field studies of small mammals, emerge from the population model. These cycles were shown to be caused by the home range behavior and dispersal. As observed previously in the field, population cycles in the model were also stronger for longer breeding season length. Our results show how validation can help to evaluate the realism of population models, and we discuss the importance of taking field methodology and resulting bias into account. Our results also demonstrate how population models can help to test or understand biological mechanisms in population ecology.

  12. Protein displacements under external forces: An atomistic Langevin dynamics approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gnandt, David; Utz, Nadine; Blumen, Alexander; Koslowski, Thorsten

    2009-02-01

    We present a fully atomistic Langevin dynamics approach as a method to simulate biopolymers under external forces. In the harmonic regime, this approach permits the computation of the long-term dynamics using only the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Hessian matrix of second derivatives. We apply this scheme to identify polymorphs of model proteins by their mechanical response fingerprint, and we relate the averaged dynamics of proteins to their biological functionality, with the ion channel gramicidin A, a phosphorylase, and neuropeptide Y as examples. In an environment akin to dilute solutions, even small proteins show relaxation times up to 50 ns. Atomically resolved Langevin dynamics computations have been performed for the stretched gramicidin A ion channel.

  13. Effective population size dynamics and the demographic collapse of Bornean orang-utans.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Reeta; Arora, Natasha; Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W; Van Schaik, Carel P; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200-2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  14. Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

    PubMed Central

    Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  15. Time-dependent HF approach to SHE dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Umar, A. S.; Oberacker, V. E.

    2015-12-01

    We employ the time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) method to study various aspects of the reactions utilized in searches for superheavy elements. These include capture cross-sections, quasifission, prediction of PCN, and other interesting dynamical quantities. We show that the microscopic TDHF approach provides an important tool to shed some light on the nuclear dynamics leading to the formation of superheavy elements.

  16. Dynamic focusing approach to mixed-level simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fall, Thomas C.

    1997-06-01

    The dynamic focusing approach (DFA) has been under development for several years. Its intent is to address several of the issues of mixed level simulations, particularly the aggregational issues. Though the approach requires that the system be able to be modeled within certain constraints, many systems of interest fit well within them. This approach combines a hierarchical representation of knowledge with a stochastic propagation mechanism; this provides capability to gracefully move from coarse granularity to fine granularity under user guidance. Prototype tools have been developed for engineering analysis, combat simulation and TQM process implementation. This paper gives an overview of the approach and its current status.

  17. [Population dynamics and control techniques of aphids on honeysuckle].

    PubMed

    Sun, Ying; Xue, Ming; Zhang, Xiao; Zhao, Hai-Peng; Li, Zhao-Xia

    2013-11-01

    The objective of this study is to define the population dynamics of Semiaphis heraclei in the main-producing district of Lonicera japonica in Shandong, and screen for highly efficient, safety control technique. Through fixed field investigation, we tested the toxicity of eight kinds of insecticides by using dipping methods, and carried out the field experiment. The results showed that the aphids' emergence peak appeared in May. The aphids on the Sijihua variety of L. japonica was more susceptible and the peak was also seven days earlier than Damao variety of L. japonica. The aphid populations on Sijihua were 1 fold than those on the Daomao in happened peak. Comparing the eight kinds of insecticides, the LC50 of lambda-cyhaothrin, abamectin, imidacloprid and pyrethrin to wingless aphids were 1.494, 1.690, 2.840, 2.861 mg x L(-1), respectively, whose toxicity were higher, the toxicity of matrine, pymetrozine and azadirachtin were also high. The field efficacy trials indicated that during the period of aphids occurred, 25% imidacloprid wettable powder, 1.8% abamectin missible oil, 2.5% lambda-cyhaothrin missible oil, 25% pymetrozine wettable powder, 5% pyrethrin missible oil, 1% matrine water aqua were sprayed at concentrations of 20,000, 2,000, 2,500, 5,000, 500 and 50 times, respectively,the control effect achieved 91.69%, 98.90%, 96.18%, 95.06%, 99.24%, 90.10%, respectively, after 5 days. During the growing period of L. japonica in spring, application of thiamethoxam, thiacloprid, pymetrozine and imidacloprid, all of the control effect against aphids achieved above 98.88% after 50 days. The result indicated that May was the S. heraclei Takahashi's emergence peak in Pingyi, Shandong. The efficient safety and environmentally friendly insecticides by spraying and systemic insecticide of pymetrozine and imidacloprid by root application were all efficient controlled aphids. These insecticides were long for controlling S. heraclei Takahashi and worthy of being widely

  18. [Population dynamics and control techniques of aphids on honeysuckle].

    PubMed

    Sun, Ying; Xue, Ming; Zhang, Xiao; Zhao, Hai-Peng; Li, Zhao-Xia

    2013-11-01

    The objective of this study is to define the population dynamics of Semiaphis heraclei in the main-producing district of Lonicera japonica in Shandong, and screen for highly efficient, safety control technique. Through fixed field investigation, we tested the toxicity of eight kinds of insecticides by using dipping methods, and carried out the field experiment. The results showed that the aphids' emergence peak appeared in May. The aphids on the Sijihua variety of L. japonica was more susceptible and the peak was also seven days earlier than Damao variety of L. japonica. The aphid populations on Sijihua were 1 fold than those on the Daomao in happened peak. Comparing the eight kinds of insecticides, the LC50 of lambda-cyhaothrin, abamectin, imidacloprid and pyrethrin to wingless aphids were 1.494, 1.690, 2.840, 2.861 mg x L(-1), respectively, whose toxicity were higher, the toxicity of matrine, pymetrozine and azadirachtin were also high. The field efficacy trials indicated that during the period of aphids occurred, 25% imidacloprid wettable powder, 1.8% abamectin missible oil, 2.5% lambda-cyhaothrin missible oil, 25% pymetrozine wettable powder, 5% pyrethrin missible oil, 1% matrine water aqua were sprayed at concentrations of 20,000, 2,000, 2,500, 5,000, 500 and 50 times, respectively,the control effect achieved 91.69%, 98.90%, 96.18%, 95.06%, 99.24%, 90.10%, respectively, after 5 days. During the growing period of L. japonica in spring, application of thiamethoxam, thiacloprid, pymetrozine and imidacloprid, all of the control effect against aphids achieved above 98.88% after 50 days. The result indicated that May was the S. heraclei Takahashi's emergence peak in Pingyi, Shandong. The efficient safety and environmentally friendly insecticides by spraying and systemic insecticide of pymetrozine and imidacloprid by root application were all efficient controlled aphids. These insecticides were long for controlling S. heraclei Takahashi and worthy of being widely

  19. Mosquito population dynamic (Diptera: Culicidae) in a eutrophised dam.

    PubMed

    Wermelinger, E D; Benigno, C V; Machado, R N M; Cabello, P H; Meira, A M; Ferreira, A P; Zanuncio, J C

    2012-11-01

    This study observed the mosquito population in a rural eutrophised dam. Larvae of L3 and L4 stages and pupae were dipped out during twelve month collections and the reared to the adult stage for identification. The collections were done along nine metres from the edge of the dam divided in three parts (P1, P2 and P3), each part being 3 m long. P1 did not have vegetation (grass) along its edge,which would reach or sink into the water to promote some shade on the marginal water. A total of 217 adults of four species was identified with the following constancies and frequencies: Culex quinquefasciatus (Say, 1823) (83% and 40.6%), Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) evansae (Brèthes, 1926) (92% and 26.7%), Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) rangeli (Gabaldon, Cova Garcia and Lopez, 1940) (83% and 14.3%) and Culex nigripalpus (Theobald, 1901) (33% and 18.4%). C. quinquefasciatus, A. evansae, A. rangeli and C. nigripalpus were more frequent in the quarters Nov./Dec./Jan. (85.7%), May/June/July (75%), Aug./Sept./Oct. (29.4%) and Aug./Sept./Oct. (23.5%) particularly in the months of December (88.4%) Sept.tember (48.94), (38.3) and August (47.62) respectively. The presence of C. quinquefasciatus and the high incidence of Daphinia sp. and also the levels of Organic Nitrogen (0.28 mg/L) and of total Phosphorus (0.02 mg/L) are indications of the eutrophication of the dam. There was a difference regarding the total of Anopheles (A. avansae + A. rangeli) and Culex species (C. quinquefasciatus + C. nigripalpis) between P1 and P2 (χ(2) = 0.0097), P1 and P3 (χ(2) = 0.0005), but not between P2 and P3 (χ(2) = 0.2045).The high C. quinquefasciatus constancy and frequency were confirmed to be a good biological indicator for a eutrophised environment and A. evansae showed a good potential for this environment. Vegetation can be an important factor for anopheline population dynamic also in eutrophic breeding sites.

  20. An Analytical Dynamics Approach to the Control of Mechanical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mylapilli, Harshavardhan

    A new and novel approach to the control of nonlinear mechanical systems is presented in this study. The approach is inspired by recent results in analytical dynamics that deal with the theory of constrained motion. The control requirements on the dynamical system are viewed from an analytical dynamics perspective and the theory of constrained motion is used to recast these control requirements as constraints on the dynamical system. Explicit closed form expressions for the generalized nonlinear control forces are obtained by using the fundamental equation of mechanics. The control so obtained is optimal at each instant of time and causes the constraints to be exactly satisfied. No linearizations and/or approximations of the nonlinear dynamical system are made, and no a priori structure is imposed on the nature of nonlinear controller. Three examples dealing with highly nonlinear complex dynamical systems that are chosen from diverse areas of discrete and continuum mechanics are presented to demonstrate the control approach. The first example deals with the energy control of underactuated inhomogeneous nonlinear lattices (or chains), the second example deals with the synchronization of the motion of multiple coupled slave gyros with that of a master gyro, and the final example deals with the control of incompressible hyperelastic rubber-like thin cantilever beams. Numerical simulations accompanying these examples show the ease, simplicity and the efficacy with which the control methodology can be applied and the accuracy with which the desired control objectives can be met.

  1. A decoupled recursive approach for constrained flexible multibody system dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lai, Hao-Jan; Kim, Sung-Soo; Haug, Edward J.; Bae, Dae-Sung

    1989-01-01

    A variational-vector calculus approach is employed to derive a recursive formulation for dynamic analysis of flexible multibody systems. Kinematic relationships for adjacent flexible bodies are derived in a companion paper, using a state vector notation that represents translational and rotational components simultaneously. Cartesian generalized coordinates are assigned for all body and joint reference frames, to explicitly formulate deformation kinematics under small deformation kinematics and an efficient flexible dynamics recursive algorithm is developed. Dynamic analysis of a closed loop robot is performed to illustrate efficiency of the algorithm.

  2. Silicon-Neuron Design: A Dynamical Systems Approach

    PubMed Central

    Arthur, John V.; Boahen, Kwabena

    2010-01-01

    We present an approach to design spiking silicon neurons based on dynamical systems theory. Dynamical systems theory aids in choosing the appropriate level of abstraction, prescribing a neuron model with the desired dynamics while maintaining simplicity. Further, we provide a procedure to transform the prescribed equations into subthreshold current-mode circuits. We present a circuit design example, a positive-feedback integrate-and-fire neuron, fabricated in 0.25 μm CMOS. We analyze and characterize the circuit, and demonstrate that it can be configured to exhibit desired behaviors, including spike-frequency adaptation and two forms of bursting. PMID:21617741

  3. Metal induced inhalation exposure in urban population: A probabilistic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widziewicz, Kamila; Loska, Krzysztof

    2016-03-01

    The paper was aimed at assessing the health risk in the populations of three Silesian cities: Bielsko-Biała, Częstochowa and Katowice exposed to the inhalation intake of cadmium, nickel and arsenic present in airborne particulate matter. In order to establish how the exposure parameters affects risk a probabilistic risk assessment framework was used. The risk model was based on the results of the annual measurements of As, Cd and Ni concentrations in PM2.5 and the sets of data on the concentrations of those elements in PM10 collected by the Voivodship Inspectorate of Environmental Protection over 2012-2013 period. The risk was calculated as an incremental lifetime risk of cancer (ILCR) in particular age groups (infants, children, adults) following Monte Carlo approach. With the aim of depicting the effect the variability of exposure parameters exerts on the risk, the initial parameters of the risk model: metals concentrations, its infiltration into indoor environment, exposure duration, exposure frequency, lung deposition efficiency, daily lung ventilation and body weight were modeled as random variables. The distribution of inhalation cancer risk due to exposure to ambient metals concentrations was LN (1.80 × 10-6 ± 2.89 × 10-6) and LN (6.17 × 10-7 ± 1.08 × 10-6) for PM2.5 and PM10-bound metals respectively and did not exceed the permissible limit of the acceptable risk. The highest probability of contracting cancer was observed for Katowice residents exposed to PM2.5 - LN (2.01 × 10-6 ± 3.24 × 10-6). Across the tested age groups adults were approximately one order of magnitude at higher risk compared to infants. Sensitivity analysis showed that exposure duration (ED) and body weight (BW) were the two variables, which contributed the most to the ILCR.

  4. Dynamics of adaptation and diversification: a 10,000-generation experiment with bacterial populations.

    PubMed Central

    Lenski, R E; Travisano, M

    1994-01-01

    We followed evolutionary change in 12 populations of Escherichia coli propagated for 10,000 generations in identical environments. Both morphology (cell size) and fitness (measured in competition with the ancestor) evolved rapidly for the first 2000 generations or so after the populations were introduced into the experimental environment, but both were nearly static for the last 5000 generations. Although evolving in identical environments, the replicate populations diverged significantly from one another in both morphology and mean fitness. The divergence in mean fitness was sustained and implies that the populations have approached different fitness peaks of unequal height in the adaptive landscape. Although the experimental time scale and environment were microevolutionary in scope, our experiments were designed to address questions concerning the origin as well as the fate of genetic and phenotypic novelties, the repeatability of adaptation, the diversification of lineages, and thus the causes and consequences of the uniqueness of evolutionary history. In fact, we observed several hallmarks of macroevolutionary dynamics, including periods of rapid evolution and stasis, altered functional relationships between traits, and concordance of anagenetic and cladogenetic trends. Our results support a Wrightian interpretation, in which chance events (mutation and drift) play an important role in adaptive evolution, as do the complex genetic interactions that underlie the structure of organisms. PMID:8041701

  5. Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities

    PubMed Central

    Storkey, J; Holst, N; Bøjer, O Q; Bigongiali, F; Bocci, G; Colbach, N; Dorner, Z; Riemens, M M; Sartorato, I; Sønderskov, M; Verschwele, A

    2015-01-01

    A functional approach to predicting shifts in weed floras in response to management or environmental change requires the combination of data on weed traits with analytical frameworks that capture the filtering effect of selection pressures on traits. A weed traits database (WTDB) was designed, populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters. These relationships were used to build a generic model, operating at the level of functional traits, to simulate the impact of increasing herbicide and fertiliser use on virtual weeds along gradients of seed weight and maximum height. The model generated ‘fitness contours’ (defined as population growth rates) within this trait space in different scenarios, onto which two sets of weed species, defined as common or declining in the UK, were mapped. The effect of increasing inputs on the weed flora was successfully simulated; 77% of common species were predicted to have stable or increasing populations under high fertiliser and herbicide use, in contrast with only 29% of the species that have declined. Future development of the WTDB will aim to increase the number of species covered, incorporate a wider range of traits and analyse intraspecific variability under contrasting management and environments. PMID:26190870

  6. Ecological resilience of population cycles: a dynamic perspective of regime shift.

    PubMed

    Suzuki, Kenta; Yoshida, Takehito

    2015-04-01

    Studies of catastrophic regime shifts have mostly considered a simple equilibrium situation, in which there are two stable equilibria divided by an unstable equilibrium. However, populations and communities in nature often show more complex dynamics, and regime shifts in the complex dynamic systems have attracted limited attention so far. Understanding the division between alternative stable states in multispecies communities requires an extended perspective and the conventional analysis of a simple equilibrium situation cannot be applied as it is. What divides the alternative stable states can take complex structure rather than a point, and this division of alternative states is usually impossible to be obtained by analytical approaches. In this study, we developed a numerical method that can relatively easily provide the structure of the division of alternative stable states. We then applied the method to different three-species systems exhibiting oscillatory dynamics to understand their recoverability from perturbations that can bring out irreversible state change. Our results suggested that there is temporal variation of the recoverability that may not be understood straightforwardly because of the complex structure of the division of alternative stable states. Also, which of the alternative states is more vulnerable to perturbations and easier to show a regime shift can vary depending on the size of perturbation. These attributes of regime shifts have not been found in a simple equilibrium situation, suggesting the need of a dynamic aspect of the recoverability of ecological systems.

  7. DYNAMICS OF NEMATODE POPULATIONS IN CACAO GROWN UNDER TRADIONALLY SYSTEM OF MANAGEMENT IN PERUVIAN AMAZON

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Nature of crops and management systems greatly influences population dynamics of parasitic and nonparasitic nematodes in soil. An experiment was undertaken at Tropical Crop Research institute (ICT), Tarapoto, Peru to assess the population dynamics of nematodes in a Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.)-Banana ...

  8. Genetic Distances of Crucian Carp Populations analyzed by PCR Approach

    PubMed Central

    Jeon, Jun-Hyub; Yoon, Jong-Man

    2016-01-01

    Genomic DNAs isolated from crucian carp of four rivers, belonging to the family Cyprinidae was amplified by seven oligonucleotides primers. In the present study, we employed hierarchical clustering method in order to reveal genetic distances and variations. Crucian carp was acquired from Hangang river (CAH), Geumgang river (CAG), Nakdonggang river (CAN) and Yeongsangang river (CAY). The primer BION-12 generated the most loci (a total of 50) with an average of 10 in the CAY population. The primer BION-10 generated the least loci (a total of 19), with an average of 3.8 in the CAG population, in comparison to the other primers used. Seven oligonucleotides primers made 16.7 average no. per primer of specific loci in the CAH population, 7.4 in the CAG population, 8.6 in the CAN population and 0.9 in the CAY population, respectively. The specific loci generated by oligonucleotides primers revealed inter-individual-specific characteristics, thus disclosing DNA polymorphisms. The dendrogram obtained by the seven oligonucleotides primers indicates four genetic clusters. The genetic distance that displayed significant molecular differences was between individuals no.06 and no.08 from the CAG population (genetic distance = 0.036), while the genetic distance among the five individuals that displayed significant molecular differences was between individuals no.08 and no.09 from the CAG population (genetic distance = 0.088). With regard to average bandsharing value (BS) results, individuals from CAY population (0.985±0.009) exhibited higher bandsharing values than did individuals from CAH population (0.779±0.049) (P<0.05). Relatively, individuals of CAY population were fairly closely related to that of CAN location (genetic distance between two populations<0.016).

  9. Genetic Distances of Crucian Carp Populations analyzed by PCR Approach

    PubMed Central

    Jeon, Jun-Hyub; Yoon, Jong-Man

    2016-01-01

    Genomic DNAs isolated from crucian carp of four rivers, belonging to the family Cyprinidae was amplified by seven oligonucleotides primers. In the present study, we employed hierarchical clustering method in order to reveal genetic distances and variations. Crucian carp was acquired from Hangang river (CAH), Geumgang river (CAG), Nakdonggang river (CAN) and Yeongsangang river (CAY). The primer BION-12 generated the most loci (a total of 50) with an average of 10 in the CAY population. The primer BION-10 generated the least loci (a total of 19), with an average of 3.8 in the CAG population, in comparison to the other primers used. Seven oligonucleotides primers made 16.7 average no. per primer of specific loci in the CAH population, 7.4 in the CAG population, 8.6 in the CAN population and 0.9 in the CAY population, respectively. The specific loci generated by oligonucleotides primers revealed inter-individual-specific characteristics, thus disclosing DNA polymorphisms. The dendrogram obtained by the seven oligonucleotides primers indicates four genetic clusters. The genetic distance that displayed significant molecular differences was between individuals no.06 and no.08 from the CAG population (genetic distance = 0.036), while the genetic distance among the five individuals that displayed significant molecular differences was between individuals no.08 and no.09 from the CAG population (genetic distance = 0.088). With regard to average bandsharing value (BS) results, individuals from CAY population (0.985±0.009) exhibited higher bandsharing values than did individuals from CAH population (0.779±0.049) (P<0.05). Relatively, individuals of CAY population were fairly closely related to that of CAN location (genetic distance between two populations<0.016). PMID:27660831

  10. Genetic Distances of Crucian Carp Populations analyzed by PCR Approach.

    PubMed

    Jeon, Jun-Hyub; Yoon, Jong-Man

    2016-06-01

    Genomic DNAs isolated from crucian carp of four rivers, belonging to the family Cyprinidae was amplified by seven oligonucleotides primers. In the present study, we employed hierarchical clustering method in order to reveal genetic distances and variations. Crucian carp was acquired from Hangang river (CAH), Geumgang river (CAG), Nakdonggang river (CAN) and Yeongsangang river (CAY). The primer BION-12 generated the most loci (a total of 50) with an average of 10 in the CAY population. The primer BION-10 generated the least loci (a total of 19), with an average of 3.8 in the CAG population, in comparison to the other primers used. Seven oligonucleotides primers made 16.7 average no. per primer of specific loci in the CAH population, 7.4 in the CAG population, 8.6 in the CAN population and 0.9 in the CAY population, respectively. The specific loci generated by oligonucleotides primers revealed inter-individual-specific characteristics, thus disclosing DNA polymorphisms. The dendrogram obtained by the seven oligonucleotides primers indicates four genetic clusters. The genetic distance that displayed significant molecular differences was between individuals no.06 and no.08 from the CAG population (genetic distance = 0.036), while the genetic distance among the five individuals that displayed significant molecular differences was between individuals no.08 and no.09 from the CAG population (genetic distance = 0.088). With regard to average bandsharing value (BS) results, individuals from CAY population (0.985±0.009) exhibited higher bandsharing values than did individuals from CAH population (0.779±0.049) (P<0.05). Relatively, individuals of CAY population were fairly closely related to that of CAN location (genetic distance between two populations<0.016). PMID:27660831

  11. Computational analysis of complex systems: Applications to population dynamics and networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molnar, Ferenc

    In most complex evolving systems, we can often find a critical subset of the constituents that can initiate a global change in the entire system. For example, in complex networks, a critical subset of nodes can efficiently spread information, influence, or control dynamical processes over the entire network. Similarly, in nonlinear dynamics, we can locate key variables, or find the necessary parameters, to reach the attraction basin of a desired global state. In both cases, a fundamental goal is finding the ability to efficiently control these systems. We study two distinct complex systems in this dissertation, exploring these topics. First, we analyze a population dynamics model describing interactions of sex-structured population groups. Specifically, we analyze how a sex-linked genetic trait's ecological consequence (population survival or extinction) can be influenced by the presence of sex-specific cultural mortality traits, motivated by the desire to expand the theoretical understanding of the role of biased sex ratios in organisms. We analyze dynamics within a single population group, as well as between competing groups. We find that there is a finite range of sex ratio bias that can be maintained in stable equilibrium by sex-specific mortalities. We also find that the outcome of an invasion and the ensuing between-group competition depends not on larger equilibrium group densities, but on the higher allocation of sex-ratio genes. When we extend the model with diffusive dispersal, we find that a critical patch size for achieving positive growth only exists if the population expands into an empty environment. If a resident population is already present that can be exploited by the invading group, then any small seed of invader can advance from rarity, in the mean-field approximation, as long as the local competition dynamics favors the invader's survival. Most spatial models assume initial populations with a uniform distribution inside a finite patch; a

  12. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  13. Improving Quality in Education: Dynamic Approaches to School Improvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creemers, Bert P. M.; Kyriakides, Leonidas

    2011-01-01

    This book explores an approach to school improvement that merges the traditions of educational effectiveness research and school improvement efforts. It displays how the dynamic model, which is theoretical and empirically validated, can be used in both traditions. Each chapter integrates evidence from international and national studies, showing…

  14. The Feldenkrais Method: A Dynamic Approach to Changing Motor Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buchanan, Patricia A.; Ulrich, Beverly D.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the Feldenkrais Method of somatic education, noting parallels with a dynamic systems theory (DST) approach to motor behavior. Feldenkrais uses movement and perception to foster individualized improvement in function. DST explains that a human-environment system continually adapts to changing conditions and assembles behaviors…

  15. Microscopic Approach to Species Coexistence Based on Evolutionary Game Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grebogi, Celso; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Wang, Wen-Xu

    2014-12-01

    An outstanding problem in complex systems and mathematical biology is to explore and understand the fundamental mechanisms of species coexistence. Existing approaches are based on niche partitioning, dispersal, chaotic evolutionary dynamics, and more recently, evolutionary games. Here we briefly review a number of fundamental issues associated with the coexistence of mobile species under cyclic competitions in the framework of evolutionary games.

  16. A dynamic appearance descriptor approach to facial actions temporal modeling.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Bihan; Valstar, Michel; Martinez, Brais; Pantic, Maja

    2014-02-01

    Both the configuration and the dynamics of facial expressions are crucial for the interpretation of human facial behavior. Yet to date, the vast majority of reported efforts in the field either do not take the dynamics of facial expressions into account, or focus only on prototypic facial expressions of six basic emotions. Facial dynamics can be explicitly analyzed by detecting the constituent temporal segments in Facial Action Coding System (FACS) Action Units (AUs)-onset, apex, and offset. In this paper, we present a novel approach to explicit analysis of temporal dynamics of facial actions using the dynamic appearance descriptor Local Phase Quantization from Three Orthogonal Planes (LPQ-TOP). Temporal segments are detected by combining a discriminative classifier for detecting the temporal segments on a frame-by-frame basis with Markov Models that enforce temporal consistency over the whole episode. The system is evaluated in detail over the MMI facial expression database, the UNBC-McMaster pain database, the SAL database, the GEMEP-FERA dataset in database-dependent experiments, in cross-database experiments using the Cohn-Kanade, and the SEMAINE databases. The comparison with other state-of-the-art methods shows that the proposed LPQ-TOP method outperforms the other approaches for the problem of AU temporal segment detection, and that overall AU activation detection benefits from dynamic appearance information.

  17. Charting Multidisciplinary Team External Dynamics Using a Systems Thinking Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barthelemy, Jean-Francois; Waszak, Martin R.; Jones, Kenneth M.; Silcox, Richard J.; Silva, Walter A.; Nowaczyk, Ronald H.

    1998-01-01

    Using the formalism provided by the Systems Thinking approach, the dynamics present when operating multidisciplinary teams are examined in the context of the NASA Langley Research and Technology Group, an R&D organization organized along functional lines. The paper focuses on external dynamics and examines how an organization creates and nurtures the teams and how it disseminates and retains the lessons and expertise created by the multidisciplinary activities. Key variables are selected and the causal relationships between the variables are identified. Five "stories" are told, each of which touches on a different aspect of the dynamics. The Systems Thinking Approach provides recommendations as to interventions that will facilitate the introduction of multidisciplinary teams and that therefore will increase the likelihood of performing successful multidisciplinary developments. These interventions can be carried out either by individual researchers, line management or program management.

  18. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

    PubMed

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

  19. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.

    2012-04-01

    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  20. Dynamics of single-species population growth: stability or chaos

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-01-01

    We have examined stability at the carrying capacity for 25 genetically different populations of Drosophila melanogaster. In spite of their genetic heterogeneity, 20 of the populations yield stable equilibria and none have eigenvalues significantly greater than one. Computer simulations demonstrate how selection at the individual level may account for population stability (and, hence, that group selection is not necessary for the evolution of stability). Recent theoretical studies on density-dependent selection in random environments provide predictions consistent with our empirical findings.

  1. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models.

    PubMed

    Rodhouse, Thomas J; Ormsbee, Patricia C; Irvine, Kathryn M; Vierling, Lee A; Szewczak, Joseph M; Vierling, Kerri T

    2012-06-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species-energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients. Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during -50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naive estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to -0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (-0.04-0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future

  2. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models.

    PubMed

    Rodhouse, Thomas J; Ormsbee, Patricia C; Irvine, Kathryn M; Vierling, Lee A; Szewczak, Joseph M; Vierling, Kerri T

    2012-06-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species-energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients. Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during -50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naive estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to -0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (-0.04-0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future

  3. Division synchrony and the dynamics of microbial populations: a size-specific model.

    PubMed

    Gage, T B; Williams, F M; Horton, J B

    1984-12-01

    A discrete, environmentally coupled, size-specific model of microbial population dynamics in continuous culture is presented. It is mathematically simpler than other models based on similar assumptions and lends itself to numerical and analytic solutions. It displays several phenomena which have been reported in the experimental literature but which are not well understood; specifically, a loose relationship between biomass and numbers (i.e., a time lag between mass growth and cell division) and a critical damping of biomass while numbers continue to oscillate. In addition, the model provides several new predictions: The stable biomass distribution is independent of the environmental factors considered in the model and uniformly distributes the biomass among the size classes. The rate of approach to stability and the frequency of waves through the size distributions are a function of the flow rate and the variance in rate of growth and size at division. The model should provide a useful basis for studying the effects of size specificity on the dynamics of microbial populations cultured in chemostats.

  4. A Minimum Cost Groundwater Remediation Design Using a Dynamic Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulou, M. P.; Papadopoulou, M. P.; Pinder, G. F.; Pinder, G. F.; Karatzas, G. P.; Karatzas, G. P.

    2001-12-01

    The cost-effective remediation designs that involve removal of contaminants from the subsurface given risk-based constraints and the requirement of contaminant-plume containment can be addressed via a new multi-stage dynamic approach using pump-and-treat systems. In this approach, the remedial design is modified from time to time in order to more effectively employ the available pumping wells. The duration of each period and the pumping rates at the various target wells are considered interactively in determining the least-cost design. At each stage, the pumping rates are modified to accommodate the dynamic nature of the plume. In response to the changing plume geometry, the well discharges may increase or decrease in order to produce the most cost-effective design that satisfies the specified constraints active during the overall design horizon. The utilization of this approach at a field location illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  5. Rabies disease dynamics in naïve dog populations in Australia.

    PubMed

    Sparkes, Jessica; McLeod, Steven; Ballard, Guy; Fleming, Peter J S; Körtner, Gerhard; Brown, Wendy Y

    2016-09-01

    Currently, Australia is free from terrestrial rabies but an incursion from nearby Indonesia, where the virus is endemic, is a feasible threat. Here, we aimed to determine whether the response to a simulated rabies incursion would vary between three extant Australian dog populations; free-roaming domestic dogs from a remote indigenous community in northern Australia, and free-roaming domestic and wild dogs in peri-urban areas of north-east New South Wales. We further sought to predict how different management strategies impacted disease dynamics in these populations. We used simple stochastic state-transition models and dog demographic and contact rate data from the three dog populations to simulate rabies spread, and used global and local sensitivity analyses to determine effects of model parameters. To identify the most effective control options, dog removal and vaccination strategies were also simulated. Responses to simulated rabies incursions varied between the dog populations. Free-roaming domestic dogs from north-east New South Wales exhibited the lowest risk for rabies maintenance and spread. Due to low containment and high contact rates, rabies progressed rapidly through free-roaming dogs from the remote indigenous community in northern Australia. In contrast, rabies remained at relatively low levels within the north-east New South Wales wild dog population for over a year prior to an epidemic. Across all scenarios, sensitivity analyses revealed that contact rates and the probability of transmission were the most important drivers of the number of infectious individuals within a population. The number of infectious individuals was less sensitive to birth and death rates. Removal of dogs as a control strategy was not effective for any population modelled, while vaccination rates in excess of 70% of the population resulted in significant reductions in disease progression. The variability in response between these distinct dog groups to a rabies incursion

  6. The dynamic lives of T cells: new approaches and themes.

    PubMed

    Yamanaka, Yvonne J; Gierahn, Todd M; Love, J Christopher

    2013-02-01

    Activated T cells have classically been thought to progress unidirectionally through discrete phenotypic states and differentiate into static lineages. It is increasingly evident, however, that T cells exhibit much more complex and flexible dynamic behaviors than initially appreciated, and that these behaviors influence the efficacy of T cell responses to immunological challenges. In this review, we discuss how new technologies for monitoring the dynamics of T cells are enhancing the resolution of the fine phenotypic and functional heterogeneity within populations of T cells and revealing how individual T cells transition among a continuum of states. Such insights into the dynamic properties of T cells should improve immune monitoring and inform strategies for therapeutic interventions. PMID:23200626

  7. Tropical forest landscape dynamics: Population consequences for neotropical lianas, genus Passiflora

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plowes, Robert Merrick

    patch extinction with potential to contribute later through both sexual and asexual dispersal. Plants that rely only on high dispersal were extinction prone in low connectivity landscapes. This novel approach of jointly analyzing spatially-explicit patch parameters and life history traits offers a comprehensive framework for further understanding the effects of patch dynamics on populations.

  8. Data-driven approach to dynamic visual attention modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Culibrk, Dubravko; Sladojevic, Srdjan; Riche, Nicolas; Mancas, Matei; Crnojevic, Vladimir

    2012-06-01

    Visual attention deployment mechanisms allow the Human Visual System to cope with an overwhelming amount of visual data by dedicating most of the processing power to objects of interest. The ability to automatically detect areas of the visual scene that will be attended to by humans is of interest for a large number of applications, from video coding, video quality assessment to scene understanding. Due to this fact, visual saliency (bottom-up attention) models have generated significant scientific interest in recent years. Most recent work in this area deals with dynamic models of attention that deal with moving stimuli (videos) instead of traditionally used still images. Visual saliency models are usually evaluated against ground-truth eye-tracking data collected from human subjects. However, there are precious few recently published approaches that try to learn saliency from eyetracking data and, to the best of our knowledge, no approaches that try to do so when dynamic saliency is concerned. The paper attempts to fill this gap and describes an approach to data-driven dynamic saliency model learning. A framework is proposed that enables the use of eye-tracking data to train an arbitrary machine learning algorithm, using arbitrary features derived from the scene. We evaluate the methodology using features from a state-of-the art dynamic saliency model and show how simple machine learning algorithms can be trained to distinguish between visually salient and non-salient parts of the scene.

  9. Call for new approach of population / environment issue.

    PubMed

    1992-01-01

    The US Committee on Women, Population, and the Environment strives for women's empowerment and reproductive freedom and opposes poverty, inequality, racism, and environmental degradation. Its members do not believe the leading causes of environmental degradation to be just population size and population growth. In fact, reducing population growth does not solve environmental degradation problems. The causes actually consist of an interrelationship of exploitative economic systems that focus on short-term gains and profits, military build up and actions that foster violence against women, uprooting of small farmers and indigenous people by international financial institutions with national governments agreeing to this action, technologies that abuse natural resources, rapid urbanization and poverty, and disproportionate consumption of industrialized nations and the wealthy worldwide. A major problem with blaming population growth for environmental degradation is it deepens the top down, demographically driven population policies and programs that do not value women, especially non-Caucasian women and their children. Specifically, they are not oriented toward women's reproductive health needs. Various programs have coerced women to undergo sterilization, have not given women medical screenings or follow-up care, have neglected informed consent, have not provided women with information on contraceptive risks and side efforts, and have not offered safe abortion and barrier and male family planning methods. Evidence worldwide indicates that improvements in living standards and in women's social, economic, and health status are the solution to reducing population growth. Thus, the Committee invites national governments, international agencies, and other social organizations to provide the resources needed for women's development and freedom (e.g. fair and equitable wages, women's participation in decision making, and appropriate health and reproductive health care).

  10. Development of a Dynamic Energy Budget Modeling Approach to Investigate the Effects of Temperature and Resource Limitation on Mercury Bioaccumulation in Fundulus Heteroclitus

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population persistence and growth. To explore this approach, we are conducting growth and bioaccumulation studies that cont...

  11. Development of a dynamic energy budget modeling approach to investigate the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we are developing growth and bioaccumulation studies that contrib...

  12. Development of a dynamic energy budget modeling approach to investigate the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus-presentation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we are conducting growth and bioaccumulation studies that contrib...

  13. Quantifying the impact of woodpecker predation on population dynamics of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis).

    PubMed

    Jennings, David E; Gould, Juli R; Vandenberg, John D; Duan, Jian J; Shrewsbury, Paula M

    2013-01-01

    The emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, is an invasive beetle that has killed millions of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) since it was accidentally introduced to North America in the 1990s. Understanding how predators such as woodpeckers (Picidae) affect the population dynamics of EAB should enable us to more effectively manage the spread of this beetle, and toward this end we combined two experimental approaches to elucidate the relative importance of woodpecker predation on EAB populations. First, we examined wild populations of EAB in ash trees in New York, with each tree having a section screened to exclude woodpeckers. Second, we established experimental cohorts of EAB in ash trees in Maryland, and the cohorts on half of these trees were caged to exclude woodpeckers. The following spring these trees were debarked and the fates of the EAB larvae were determined. We found that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded consistently had significantly lower levels of predation, and that woodpecker predation comprised a greater source of mortality at sites with a more established wild infestation of EAB. Additionally, there was a considerable difference between New York and Maryland in the effect that woodpecker predation had on EAB population growth, suggesting that predation alone may not be a substantial factor in controlling EAB. In our experimental cohorts we also observed that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded had a significantly higher level of parasitism. The lower level of parasitism on EAB larvae found when exposed to woodpeckers has implications for EAB biological control, suggesting that it might be prudent to exclude woodpeckers from trees when attempting to establish parasitoid populations. Future studies may include utilizing EAB larval cohorts with a range of densities to explore the functional response of woodpeckers. PMID:24349520

  14. Lineage dynamics and mutation-selection balance in non-adapting asexual populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pénisson, Sophie; Sniegowski, Paul D.; Colato, Alexandre; Gerrish, Philip J.

    2013-02-01

    In classical population genetics, mutation-selection balance refers to the equilibrium frequency of a deleterious allele established and maintained under two opposing forces: recurrent mutation, which tends to increase the frequency of the allele; and selection, which tends to decrease its frequency. In a haploid population, if μ denotes the per capita rate of production of the deleterious allele by mutation and s denotes the selective disadvantage of carrying the allele, then the classical mutation-selection balance frequency of the allele is approximated by μ/s. This calculation assumes that lineages carrying the mutant allele in question—the ‘focal allele’—do not accumulate deleterious mutations linked to the focal allele. In principle, indirect selection against the focal allele caused by such additional mutations can decrease the frequency of the focal allele below the classical mutation-selection balance. This effect of indirect selection will be strongest in an asexual population, in which the entire genome is in linkage. Here, we use an approach based on a multitype branching process to investigate this effect, analyzing lineage dynamics under mutation, direct selection, and indirect selection in a non-adapting asexual population. We find that the equilibrium balance between recurrent mutation to the focal allele and the forces of direct and indirect selection against the focal allele is closely approximated by γμ/(s + U) (s = 0 if the focal allele is neutral), where γ ≈ eθθ-(ω+θ)(ω + θ)(Γ(ω + θ) - Γ(ω + θ,θ)), \\theta =U/\\tilde {s}, and \\omega =s/\\tilde {s}; U denotes the genomic deleterious mutation rate and \\tilde {s} denotes the geometric mean selective disadvantage of deleterious mutations elsewhere on the genome. This mutation-selection balance for asexual populations can remain surprisingly invariant over wide ranges of the mutation rate.

  15. Quantifying the impact of woodpecker predation on population dynamics of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis).

    PubMed

    Jennings, David E; Gould, Juli R; Vandenberg, John D; Duan, Jian J; Shrewsbury, Paula M

    2013-01-01

    The emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, is an invasive beetle that has killed millions of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) since it was accidentally introduced to North America in the 1990s. Understanding how predators such as woodpeckers (Picidae) affect the population dynamics of EAB should enable us to more effectively manage the spread of this beetle, and toward this end we combined two experimental approaches to elucidate the relative importance of woodpecker predation on EAB populations. First, we examined wild populations of EAB in ash trees in New York, with each tree having a section screened to exclude woodpeckers. Second, we established experimental cohorts of EAB in ash trees in Maryland, and the cohorts on half of these trees were caged to exclude woodpeckers. The following spring these trees were debarked and the fates of the EAB larvae were determined. We found that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded consistently had significantly lower levels of predation, and that woodpecker predation comprised a greater source of mortality at sites with a more established wild infestation of EAB. Additionally, there was a considerable difference between New York and Maryland in the effect that woodpecker predation had on EAB population growth, suggesting that predation alone may not be a substantial factor in controlling EAB. In our experimental cohorts we also observed that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded had a significantly higher level of parasitism. The lower level of parasitism on EAB larvae found when exposed to woodpeckers has implications for EAB biological control, suggesting that it might be prudent to exclude woodpeckers from trees when attempting to establish parasitoid populations. Future studies may include utilizing EAB larval cohorts with a range of densities to explore the functional response of woodpeckers.

  16. Genetic patchiness in European eel adults evidenced by molecular genetics and population dynamics modelling.

    PubMed

    Pujolar, José Martin; Bevacqua, Daniele; Andrello, Marco; Capoccioni, Fabrizio; Ciccotti, Eleonora; De Leo, Giulio A; Zane, Lorenzo

    2011-02-01

    Disentangling the demographic processes that determine the genetic structure of a given species is a fundamental question in conservation and management. In the present study, the population structure of the European eel was examined with a multidisciplinary approach combining the fields of molecular genetics and population dynamics modelling. First, we analyzed a total of 346 adult specimens of known age collected in three separate sample sites using a large panel of 22 EST-linked microsatellite loci. Second, we developed a European eel-specific model to unravel the demographic mechanisms that can produce the level of genetic differentiation estimated by molecular markers. This is the first study that reveals a pattern of genetic patchiness in maturing adults of the European eel. A highly significant genetic differentiation was observed among samples that did not follow an Isolation-by-Distance or Isolation-by-Time pattern. The observation of genetic patchiness in adults is likely to result from a limited parental contribution to each spawning event as suggested by our modelling approach. The value of genetic differentiation found is predicted by the model when reproduction occurs in a limited number of spawning events isolated from each other in time or space, with an average of 130-375 breeders in each spawning event. Unpredictability in spawning success may have important consequences for the life-history evolution of the European eel, including a bet-hedging strategy (distributing reproductive efforts over time) which could in turn guarantee successful reproduction of some adults.

  17. Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Jimenez, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

    2012-01-01

    We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

  18. q-deformations and the dynamics of the larch bud-moth population cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyengar, Sudharsana V.; Balakrishnan, J.

    2014-07-01

    The concept of q-deformation of numbers is applied here to improve and modify a tritrophic population dynamics model to understand defoliation of the coniferous larch trees due to outbreaks of the larch bud-moth insect population. The results are in qualitative agreement with observed behavior, with the larch needle lengths, bud-moth population and parasitoid populations all showing 9-period cycles which are mutually synchronized.

  19. Customized Versus Population Approach for Evaluation of Fetal Overgrowth

    PubMed Central

    COSTANTINE, Maged M.; MELE, Lisa; LANDON, Mark B.; SPONG, Catherine Y.; RAMIN, Susan M.; CASEY, Brian; WAPNER, Ronald J.; VARNER, Michael W.; ROUSE, Dwight J.; THORP, John M.; SCISCIONE, Anthony; CATALANO, Patrick; CARITIS, Steve N.; SOROKIN, Yoram; PEACEMAN, Alan M.; TOLOSA, Jorge E.; ANDERSON, Garland D.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To compare the ability of customized versus normalized population fetal growth norms in identifying neonates at risk for adverse perinatal outcomes (APOs) associated with fetal overgrowth and gestational diabetes (GDM). Study Design Secondary analysis of a multicenter treatment trial of mild GDM. The primary outcome was a composite of neonatal outcomes associated with fetal overgrowth and GDM. Birthweight percentiles were calculated using ethnicity- & gender-specific population norms and customized norms (Gardosi). Results 203 (9.8%) and 288 (13.8%) neonates were LGA by population (LGApop) and customized (LGAcust) norms, respectively. Both LGApop and LGAcust were associated with the primary outcome and neonatal hyperinsulinemia, while neither was associated with hypoglycemia or hyperbilirubinemia. The ability of customized and population birthweight percentiles for predicting APOs were poor (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve <0.6 for 6 out of 8 APOs). Conclusion Neither customized nor normalized-population norms better identify neonates at risk of APOs related to fetal overgrowth and GDM. PMID:23147078

  20. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    PubMed

    Araújo, Rita M; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

    2014-01-01

    Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and

  1. Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Fucoid Populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): A Comparison between Central and Range Edge Populations

    PubMed Central

    Araújo, Rita M.; Serrão, Ester A.; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

    2014-01-01

    Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species’ distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λs) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λs much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λs that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals’ life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and shows

  2. Finite-element approach to Brownian dynamics of polymers.

    PubMed

    Cyron, Christian J; Wall, Wolfgang A

    2009-12-01

    In the last decades simulation tools for Brownian dynamics of polymers have attracted more and more interest. Such simulation tools have been applied to a large variety of problems and accelerated the scientific progress significantly. However, the currently most frequently used explicit bead models exhibit severe limitations, especially with respect to time step size, the necessity of artificial constraints and the lack of a sound mathematical foundation. Here we present a framework for simulations of Brownian polymer dynamics based on the finite-element method. This approach allows simulating a wide range of physical phenomena at a highly attractive computational cost on the basis of a far-developed mathematical background.

  3. Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

    2007-01-01

    A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  4. Population dynamics of a natural red deer population over 200 years detected via substantial changes of genetic variation.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Gunther Sebastian; Johannesen, Jes; Griebeler, Eva Maria

    2016-05-01

    Most large mammals have constantly been exposed to anthropogenic influence over decades or even centuries. Because of their long generation times and lack of sampling material, inferences of past population genetic dynamics, including anthropogenic impacts, have only relied on the analysis of the structure of extant populations. Here, we investigate for the first time the change in the genetic constitution of a natural red deer population over two centuries, using up to 200-year-old antlers (30 generations) stored in trophy collections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the oldest DNA source ever used for microsatellite population genetic analyses. We demonstrate that government policy and hunting laws may have strong impacts on populations that can lead to unexpectedly rapid changes in the genetic constitution of a large mammal population. A high ancestral individual polymorphism seen in an outbreeding population (1813-1861) was strongly reduced in descendants (1923-1940) during the mid-19th and early 20th century by genetic bottlenecks. Today (2011), individual polymorphism and variance among individuals is increasing in a constant-sized (managed) population. Differentiation was high among periods (F ST > ***); consequently, assignment tests assigned individuals to their own period with >85% probability. In contrast to the high variance observed at nuclear microsatellite loci, mtDNA (D-loop) was monomorphic through time, suggesting that male immigration dominates the genetic evolution in this population. PMID:27096075

  5. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF FUNGA, NEMATODE, BACTERIA AND ALGAL POPULATION IN A SOIL OF MAZON REGION OF PERU

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Soil microbes are mainly responsible for litter decomposition and nutrient cycling in the forest ecosystems. Population dynamics of soil microbes (fungus, bacteria, nematodes, algae) under secondary forest in tropical region is not well understood. An experiment was implemented at Tropical Crop Rese...

  6. Population dynamics of aquatic snails in Pampulha reservoir.

    PubMed

    Freitas, J R; Bedê, L C; De Marco Júnior, P; Rocha, L A; Santos, M B

    1987-01-01

    An attempt was made to determine more accurately the density of molluskan populations in the Pampulha reservoir, using the quadrate method, intending to detect the fluctuation of the populations density, the habitat conditions and the possible competitive interactions among Biomphalaria tenagophila, Melanoides tuberculata, Pomacea haustrum and Biomphalaria glabrata, through the analysis of populational parameters. Among the most significative facts observed in the reservoir it has to be mentioned: the almost disappearance of B. glabrata; the invasion, colonization, fixation and fast growing of M. tuberculata population until reaching about 11,000 individuals/m2; the density fluctuations of B. tenagophila, P. haustrum and M. tuberculata alives and deads; differences on the habitat preference of these three molluskan species at the edge (at the limit earth-water, at 0.70m and 1.40m from the shore line); monthly mortality rates and reproduction seasons of the species. PMID:3509186

  7. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SMALL MAMMALS ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  8. Population dynamics of aquatic snails in Pampulha reservoir.

    PubMed

    Freitas, J R; Bedê, L C; De Marco Júnior, P; Rocha, L A; Santos, M B

    1987-01-01

    An attempt was made to determine more accurately the density of molluskan populations in the Pampulha reservoir, using the quadrate method, intending to detect the fluctuation of the populations density, the habitat conditions and the possible competitive interactions among Biomphalaria tenagophila, Melanoides tuberculata, Pomacea haustrum and Biomphalaria glabrata, through the analysis of populational parameters. Among the most significative facts observed in the reservoir it has to be mentioned: the almost disappearance of B. glabrata; the invasion, colonization, fixation and fast growing of M. tuberculata population until reaching about 11,000 individuals/m2; the density fluctuations of B. tenagophila, P. haustrum and M. tuberculata alives and deads; differences on the habitat preference of these three molluskan species at the edge (at the limit earth-water, at 0.70m and 1.40m from the shore line); monthly mortality rates and reproduction seasons of the species.

  9. A Combined Geometric Approach for Computational Fluid Dynamics on Dynamic Grids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slater, John W.

    1995-01-01

    A combined geometric approach for computational fluid dynamics is presented for the analysis of unsteady flow about mechanisms in which its components are in moderate relative motion. For a CFD analysis, the total dynamics problem involves the dynamics of the aspects of geometry modeling, grid generation, and flow modeling. The interrelationships between these three aspects allow for a more natural formulation of the problem and the sharing of information which can be advantageous to the computation of the dynamics. The approach is applied to planar geometries with the use of an efficient multi-block, structured grid generation method to compute unsteady, two-dimensional and axisymmetric flow. The applications presented include the computation of the unsteady, inviscid flow about a hinged-flap with flap deflections and a high-speed inlet with centerbody motion as part of the unstart / restart operation.

  10. Complexity and dynamism from an urban health perspective: a rationale for a system dynamics approach.

    PubMed

    Tozan, Yesim; Ompad, Danielle C

    2015-06-01

    In a variety of urban health frameworks, cities are conceptualized as complex and dynamic yet commonly used epidemiological methods have failed to address this complexity and dynamism head on due to their narrow problem definitions and linear analytical representations. Scholars from a variety of disciplines have also long conceptualized cities as systems, but few have modeled urban health issues as problems within a system. Systems thinking in general and system dynamics in particular are relatively new approaches in public health, but ones that hold immense promise as methodologies to model and analyze the complexity underlying urban processes to effectively inform policy actions in dynamic environments. This conceptual essay reviews the utility of applying the concepts, principles, and methods of systems thinking to the study of complex urban health phenomena as a complementary approach to standard epidemiological methods using specific examples and provides recommendations on how to better incorporate systems thinking methods in urban health research and practice. PMID:25952137

  11. Complexity and dynamism from an urban health perspective: a rationale for a system dynamics approach.

    PubMed

    Tozan, Yesim; Ompad, Danielle C

    2015-06-01

    In a variety of urban health frameworks, cities are conceptualized as complex and dynamic yet commonly used epidemiological methods have failed to address this complexity and dynamism head on due to their narrow problem definitions and linear analytical representations. Scholars from a variety of disciplines have also long conceptualized cities as systems, but few have modeled urban health issues as problems within a system. Systems thinking in general and system dynamics in particular are relatively new approaches in public health, but ones that hold immense promise as methodologies to model and analyze the complexity underlying urban processes to effectively inform policy actions in dynamic environments. This conceptual essay reviews the utility of applying the concepts, principles, and methods of systems thinking to the study of complex urban health phenomena as a complementary approach to standard epidemiological methods using specific examples and provides recommendations on how to better incorporate systems thinking methods in urban health research and practice.

  12. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    SciTech Connect

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  13. Population dynamics of the endangered Cape Sable seaside-sparrow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Curnutt, J.L.; Mayer, A.L.; Brooks, T.M.; Manne, L.; Bass, O.L.; Fleming, D.M.; Philip, Nott M.; Pimm, S.L.

    1998-01-01

    The Cape Sable seaside-sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis) has disappeared from its only known breeding areas episodically since its discovery early this century. Systematic surveys across its range in the southern Everglades find the sparrow's range to be fragmented into six subpopulations. The sparrow population decreased by 58% between 1992 and 1995, with the near extinction of the western half of the population and the temporary local extinction of some eastern populations. Other similar grassland sparrows have populations that vary considerably from year to year. Yet the decline in the western subpopulation and the local extinction of some of the peripheral populations cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Hurricane Andrew passed over several subpopulations prior to the particularly poor year of 1993. However, the geographical and temporal patterns of subpopulation decline are not consistent with what would be expected following a hurricane. Frequent fires prevent successful breeding as does flooding during the breeding season. Better management can prevent frequent fires and episodic flooding. However, the long-term survival of the sparrow depends on managing the unanticipated risks that attend its small, fragmented population.

  14. Long-term transients and complex dynamics of a stage-structured population with time delay and the Allee effect.

    PubMed

    Morozov, A Yu; Banerjee, M; Petrovskii, S V

    2016-05-01

    Traditionally, mathematical modeling in population ecology is mainly focused on asymptotic behavior of the model, i.e. as given by the system attractors. Recently, however, transient regimes and especially long-term transients have been recognized as playing a crucial role in the dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, long-term transients are a potential explanation of ecological regime shifts, when an apparently healthy population suddenly collapses and goes extinct. In this paper, we show that the interplay between delay in maturation and a strong Allee effect can result in long-term transients in a single species system. We first derive a simple 'conceptual' model of the population dynamics that incorporates both a strong Allee effect and maturation delay. Unlike much of the previous work, our approach is not empirical since our model is derived from basic principles. We show that the model exhibits a high complexity in its asymptotic dynamics including multi-periodic and chaotic attractors. We then show the existence of long-term transient dynamics in the system, when the population size oscillates for a long time between locally stable stationary states before it eventually settles either at the persistence equilibrium or goes extinct. The parametric space of the model is found to have a complex structure with the basins of attraction corresponding to the persistence and extinction states being of a complicated shape. This impedes the prediction of the eventual fate of the population, as a small variation in the maturation delay or the initial population size can either bring the population to extinction or ensure its persistence.

  15. Insights into the mechanisms of thymus involution and regeneration by modeling the glucocorticoid-induced perturbation of thymocyte populations dynamics.

    PubMed

    Moleriu, Radu Dumitru; Zaharie, Daniela; Moatar-Moleriu, Lavinia Cristina; Gruia, Alexandra Teodora; Mic, Ani Aurora; Mic, Felix Aurel

    2014-05-01

    T-cells develop in the thymus and based on CD4 and CD8 expressions there are four main thymocyte populations in a normal mouse thymus. Currently, there are several mathematical models that describe the dynamics of thymocyte populations in a normal thymus, but only a few of them model the transient perturbation of their homeostasis. Our aim is to model the perturbation in the dynamics of each thymocyte population which is induced by the administration of a glucocorticoid, i.e. dexamethasone. The proposed approach relies on extending a four compartment thymus model based on differential equations by adding perturbation terms either globally (at the level of each equation) or locally (at the level of proliferation, death, and transfer rates). By fitting the perturbed model with experimental data on mice thymi collected before and after the administration of dexamethasone, it was possible to estimate the relevant parameters using a population-based stochastic search method. The fitted model is further used to conduct a quantitative analysis on the differentiated impact of dexamethasone on each T-cell population and on proliferation, death, and transfer processes. The obtained quantitative information on the perturbation could be used to explore and modify the flow of thymocytes between thymus compartments in order to elucidate the mechanisms of thymus involution and its subsequent regeneration. Since glucocorticoids are raised in many pathological situations, such a model could be useful in evaluating the impact of diseases on thymocyte dynamics in the thymus.

  16. Reductions in genetic diversity of Schistosoma mansoni populations under chemotherapeutic pressure: the effect of sampling approach and parasite population definition.

    PubMed

    French, Michael D; Churcher, Thomas S; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Norton, Alice J; Lwambo, Nicholas J S; Webster, Joanne P

    2013-11-01

    Detecting potential changes in genetic diversity in schistosome populations following chemotherapy with praziquantel (PZQ) is crucial if we are to fully understand the impact of such chemotherapy with respect to the potential emergence of resistance and/or other evolutionary outcomes of interventions. Doing so by implementing effective, and cost-efficient sampling protocols will help to optimise time and financial resources, particularly relevant to a disease such as schistosomiasis currently reliant on a single available drug. Here we explore the effect on measures of parasite genetic diversity of applying various field sampling approaches, both in terms of the number of (human) hosts sampled and the number of transmission stages (miracidia) sampled per host for a Schistosoma mansoni population in Tanzania pre- and post-treatment with PZQ. In addition, we explore population structuring within and between hosts by comparing the estimates of genetic diversity obtained assuming a 'component population' approach with those using an 'infrapopulation' approach. We found that increasing the number of hosts sampled, rather than the number of miracidia per host, gives more robust estimates of genetic diversity. We also found statistically significant population structuring (using Wright's F-statistics) and significant differences in the measures of genetic diversity depending on the parasite population definition. The relative advantages, disadvantages and, hence, subsequent reliability of these metrics for parasites with complex life-cycles are discussed, both for the specific epidemiological and ecological scenario under study here and for their future application to other areas and schistosome species.

  17. Conference on Geospatial Approaches to Cancer Control and Population Sciences

    Cancer.gov

    The purpose of this conference is to bring together a community of researchers across the cancer control continuum using geospatial tools, models and approaches to address cancer prevention and control.

  18. A novel similarity comparison approach for dynamic ECG series.

    PubMed

    Yin, Hong; Zhu, Xiaoqian; Ma, Shaodong; Yang, Shuqiang; Chen, Liqian

    2015-01-01

    The heart sound signal is a reflection of heart and vascular system motion. Long-term continuous electrocardiogram (ECG) contains important information which can be helpful to prevent heart failure. A single piece of a long-term ECG recording usually consists of more than one hundred thousand data points in length, making it difficult to derive hidden features that may be reflected through dynamic ECG monitoring, which is also very time-consuming to analyze. In this paper, a Dynamic Time Warping based on MapReduce (MRDTW) is proposed to make prognoses of possible lesions in patients. Through comparison of a real-time ECG of a patient with the reference sets of normal and problematic cardiac waveforms, the experimental results reveal that our approach not only retains high accuracy, but also greatly improves the efficiency of the similarity measure in dynamic ECG series.

  19. Traditional Chinese medicine: potential approaches from modern dynamical complexity theories.

    PubMed

    Ma, Yan; Zhou, Kehua; Fan, Jing; Sun, Shuchen

    2016-03-01

    Despite the widespread use of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in clinical settings, proving its effectiveness via scientific trials is still a challenge. TCM views the human body as a complex dynamical system, and focuses on the balance of the human body, both internally and with its external environment. Such fundamental concepts require investigations using system-level quantification approaches, which are beyond conventional reductionism. Only methods that quantify dynamical complexity can bring new insights into the evaluation of TCM. In a previous article, we briefly introduced the potential value of Multiscale Entropy (MSE) analysis in TCM. This article aims to explain the existing challenges in TCM quantification, to introduce the consistency of dynamical complexity theories and TCM theories, and to inspire future system-level research on health and disease.

  20. Neural network approaches to dynamic collision-free trajectory generation.

    PubMed

    Yang, S X; Meng, M

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, dynamic collision-free trajectory generation in a nonstationary environment is studied using biologically inspired neural network approaches. The proposed neural network is topologically organized, where the dynamics of each neuron is characterized by a shunting equation or an additive equation. The state space of the neural network can be either the Cartesian workspace or the joint space of multi-joint robot manipulators. There are only local lateral connections among neurons. The real-time optimal trajectory is generated through the dynamic activity landscape of the neural network without explicitly searching over the free space nor the collision paths, without explicitly optimizing any global cost functions, without any prior knowledge of the dynamic environment, and without any learning procedures. Therefore the model algorithm is computationally efficient. The stability of the neural network system is guaranteed by the existence of a Lyapunov function candidate. In addition, this model is not very sensitive to the model parameters. Several model variations are presented and the differences are discussed. As examples, the proposed models are applied to generate collision-free trajectories for a mobile robot to solve a maze-type of problem, to avoid concave U-shaped obstacles, to track a moving target and at the same to avoid varying obstacles, and to generate a trajectory for a two-link planar robot with two targets. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approaches are demonstrated through simulation and comparison studies. PMID:18244794

  1. Universality in exact quantum state population dynamics and control

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, Lian-Ao; Segal, Dvira; Brumer, Paul; Egusquiza, Inigo L.

    2010-09-15

    We consider an exact population transition, defined as the probability of finding a state at a final time that is exactly equal to the probability of another state at the initial time. We prove that, given a Hamiltonian, there always exists a complete set of orthogonal states that can be employed as time-zero states for which this exact population transition occurs. The result is general: It holds for arbitrary systems, arbitrary pairs of initial and final states, and for any time interval. The proposition is illustrated with several analytic models. In particular, we demonstrate that in some cases, by tuning the control parameters, a complete transition might occur, where a target state, vacant at t=0, is fully populated at time {tau}.

  2. Ecological change, group territoriality, and population dynamics in Serengeti lions.

    PubMed

    Packer, Craig; Hilborn, Ray; Mosser, Anna; Kissui, Bernard; Borner, Markus; Hopcraft, Grant; Wilmshurst, John; Mduma, Simon; Sinclair, Anthony R E

    2005-01-21

    Territorial behavior is expected to buffer populations against short-term environmental perturbations, but we have found that group living in African lions causes a complex response to long-term ecological change. Despite numerous gradual changes in prey availability and vegetative cover, regional populations of Serengeti lions remained stable for 10- to 20-year periods and only shifted to new equilibria in sudden leaps. Although gradually improving environmental conditions provided sufficient resources to permit the subdivision of preexisting territories, regional lion populations did not expand until short-term conditions supplied enough prey to generate large cohorts of surviving young. The results of a simulation model show that the observed pattern of "saltatory equilibria" results from the lions' grouping behavior.

  3. A Quantative Adverse Outcome Pathway Linking Aromatase Inhibition in Fathead Minnows with Population Dynamics

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathway Linking Aromatase Inhibition in Fathead Minnows with Population DynamicsAn adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a qualitative description linking a molecular initiating event (MIE) with measureable key events leading to an adverse outcome (AO). ...

  4. Human population history revealed by a supertree approach.

    PubMed

    Duda, Pavel; Jan Zrzavý

    2016-01-01

    Over the past two decades numerous new trees of modern human populations have been published extensively but little attention has been paid to formal phylogenetic synthesis. We utilized the "matrix representation with parsimony" (MRP) method to infer a composite phylogeny (supertree) of modern human populations, based on 257 genetic/genomic, as well as linguistic, phylogenetic trees and 44 admixture plots from 200 published studies (1990-2014). The resulting supertree topology includes the most basal position of S African Khoisan followed by C African Pygmies, and the paraphyletic section of all other sub-Saharan peoples. The sub-Saharan African section is basal to the monophyletic clade consisting of the N African-W Eurasian assemblage and the consistently monophyletic Eastern superclade (Sahul-Oceanian, E Asian, and Beringian-American peoples). This topology, dominated by genetic data, is well-resolved and robust to parameter set changes, with a few unstable areas (e.g., West Eurasia, Sahul-Melanesia) reflecting the existing phylogenetic controversies. A few populations were identified as highly unstable "wildcard taxa" (e.g. Andamanese, Malagasy). The linguistic classification fits rather poorly on the supertree topology, supporting a view that direct coevolution between genes and languages is far from universal. PMID:27431856

  5. Human population history revealed by a supertree approach

    PubMed Central

    Duda, Pavel; Jan Zrzavý

    2016-01-01

    Over the past two decades numerous new trees of modern human populations have been published extensively but little attention has been paid to formal phylogenetic synthesis. We utilized the “matrix representation with parsimony” (MRP) method to infer a composite phylogeny (supertree) of modern human populations, based on 257 genetic/genomic, as well as linguistic, phylogenetic trees and 44 admixture plots from 200 published studies (1990–2014). The resulting supertree topology includes the most basal position of S African Khoisan followed by C African Pygmies, and the paraphyletic section of all other sub-Saharan peoples. The sub-Saharan African section is basal to the monophyletic clade consisting of the N African–W Eurasian assemblage and the consistently monophyletic Eastern superclade (Sahul–Oceanian, E Asian, and Beringian–American peoples). This topology, dominated by genetic data, is well-resolved and robust to parameter set changes, with a few unstable areas (e.g., West Eurasia, Sahul–Melanesia) reflecting the existing phylogenetic controversies. A few populations were identified as highly unstable “wildcard taxa” (e.g. Andamanese, Malagasy). The linguistic classification fits rather poorly on the supertree topology, supporting a view that direct coevolution between genes and languages is far from universal. PMID:27431856

  6. [Feminists' approach to population problems: new paradigm or Utopia?].

    PubMed

    Kono, S

    1997-05-01

    The author first notes that, partly because of events occurring at the International Conference on Population and Development that took place in Cairo in 1994, a consensus has emerged that population programs based on a philosophy of empowering women and focusing on reproductive health are more likely to be effective than programs that focus on providing family planning services and achieving demographic targets. Some reservations about this consensus are then expressed. The author points out the difficulties inherent in widening the mandate of family planning programs in an era of diminished resources for international assistance, the past success of such programs in reducing fertility with limited resources, and the inherent contradictions in following a laissez-faire attitude toward reproduction in such regions as Sub-Saharan Africa, where economies and political systems are often in crisis, health services are minimal, and desired levels of fertility both way above current levels and far above the replacement level. While not challenging the value of the Cairo philosophy, the need to move from rhetoric to reality in the face of the world's current population problems is stressed.

  7. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  8. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE CACTUS MOTH, CACTOBLASTIS CACTORUM IN FLORIDA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Field populations of the cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum were surveyed weekly beginning in July 2006. We sampled the native cactus, Opuntia stricta visually to determine the densities and development of immature stages. Adult males were collected using a synthetic pheromone and a sticky wing trap...

  9. Dynamics of Possible Late Heavy Bombardment Impactor Populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dones, Luke

    2002-01-01

    The existence of the later lunar basins implies the existence of a massive dynamical reservoir that can store small bodies for some 6000 Myr after the Moon formed. We will discuss four recent models for such reservoirs. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  10. Stochastic population dynamics in astrochemistry and aerosol science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Losert-Valiente Kroon, C. M.

    Classical, non-equilibrium systems of diffusing species or entities undergoing depletion, evaporation and reaction processes are at the heart of many problems in Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Financial Mathematics. It is well known that fluctuations and correlations in statistical systems can have a profound influence on the macroscopic properties of the system. However, the traditional rate equations that describe the evolution of mean populations in time and space do not incorporate statistical fluctuations. This becomes an issue of great importance when population densities are low. In order to develop a stochastic description of birth-and-death processes beyond the mean field approximation I employ techniques in classical many-body Physics in a manner analogous to the treatment of quantum systems. I obtain promising results to understand and quantify the exact circumstances of the failure of the mean-field approximation in specific problems in Astrophysics, namely heterogeneous chemical reactions in interstellar clouds, and in Aerosol Science, namely heterogeneous nucleation processes, and deliver the means to manipulate the alternative stochastic framework according to the Doi-Peliti formalism. In this framework the mean population of a species is given by the average of a solution to a set of constraint equations over all realisations of the stochastic noise. The constraint equations are inhomogeneous stochastic partial differential equations with multiplicative real or complex Gaussian noise. In general, these equations cannot be solved analytically. Therefore I resort to the numerical implementation of the Doi-Peliti formalism. The main code is written in the GNU C language, some algebraic calculations are performed by means of the MapleV package. In the case of large population densities the stochastic framework renders the same results as the mean field approximation whereas for low population densities its predictions differ substantially from the

  11. Reconstructing local population dynamics in noisy metapopulations--the role of random catastrophes and Allee effects.

    PubMed

    Hart, Edmund M; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are

  12. Reconstructing Local Population Dynamics in Noisy Metapopulations—The Role of Random Catastrophes and Allee Effects

    PubMed Central

    Hart, Edmund M.; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity—demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes— affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity—positive and negative environmental fluctuations—caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are

  13. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  14. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  15. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  16. A new method for identifying rapid decline dynamics in wild vertebrate populations.

    PubMed

    Fonzo, Martina Di; Collen, Ben; Mace, Georgina M

    2013-07-01

    Tracking trends in the abundance of wildlife populations is a sensitive method for assessing biodiversity change due to the short time-lag between human pressures and corresponding shifts in population trends. This study tests for proposed associations between different types of human pressures and wildlife population abundance decline-curves and introduces a method to distinguish decline trajectories from natural fluctuations in population time-series. First, we simulated typical mammalian population time-series under different human pressure types and intensities and identified significant distinctions in population dynamics. Based on the concavity of the smoothed population trend and the algebraic function which was the closest fit to the data, we determined those differences in decline dynamics that were consistently attributable to each pressure type. We examined the robustness of the attribution of pressure type to population decline dynamics under more realistic conditions by simulating populations under different levels of environmental stochasticity and time-series data quality. Finally, we applied our newly developed method to 124 wildlife population time-series and investigated how those threat types diagnosed by our method compare to the specific threatening processes reported for those populations. We show how wildlife population decline curves can be used to discern between broad categories of pressure or threat types, but do not work for detailed threat attributions. More usefully, we find that differences in population decline curves can reliably identify populations where pressure is increasing over time, even when data quality is poor, and propose this method as a cost-effective technique for prioritizing conservation actions between populations.

  17. Dispersal and distribution of the tick Ixodes uriae within and among seabird host populations: the need for a population genetic approach.

    PubMed

    McCoy, K D; Boulinier, T; Chardine, J W; Danchin, E; Michalakis, Y

    1999-04-01

    The aim of this study was to characterize the spatial distribution of the tick Ixodes uriae within and among populations of its seabird hosts and to consider the potential insight that could be gained by a population genetic approach to the issue of dispersal of this tick. Analyses of data collected around the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland, indicated that both the prevalence and mean abundance of ticks varied significantly among sample locations. Whereas ticks were found on all 4 host species examined (Rissa tridactyla, Uria aalge, Alca torda, Fratercula arctica), infestation prevalence and mean abundance differed among the species. On R. tridactyla, ticks were significantly aggregated at the among-nest scale and nestling infestation was spatially autocorrelated. Conversely, ticks were not aggregated among chicks within nests. These results enabled us to make a priori predictions regarding tick dispersal and host specificity and suggest there may be spatial structure of Ixodes uriae populations at both macro- and microgeographic scales. Investigating the population genetic structure of ticks within and among populations of hosts with different breeding biologies should provide direct insight into the metapopulation dynamics of such a spatially structured system. PMID:10219295

  18. Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

  19. A Practical Approach to Osteoporosis Management in the Geriatric Population

    PubMed Central

    Liberman, Dan; Cheung, Angela

    2015-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a medical condition that is seen commonly in elderly patients, and it is associated with a large burden of morbidity and mortality. This article provides a practical approach to the workup and management of osteoporosis in patients 65 years or older. PMID:25825609

  20. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be ful