Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Density and spin modes in imbalanced normal Fermi gases from collisionless to hydrodynamic regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narushima, Masato; Watabe, Shohei; Nikuni, Tetsuro

2018-03-01

We study the mass- and population-imbalance effect on density (in-phase) and spin (out-of-phase) collective modes in a two-component normal Fermi gas. By calculating the eigenmodes of the linearized Boltzmann equation as well as the density/spin dynamic structure factor, we show that mass- and population-imbalance effects offer a variety of collective mode crossover behaviors from collisionless to hydrodynamic regimes. The mass-imbalance effect shifts the crossover regime to the higher-temperature, and a significant peak of the spin dynamic structure factor emerges only in the collisionless regime. This is in contrast to the case of mass- and population-balanced normal Fermi gases, where the spin dynamic response is always absent. Although the population-imbalance effect does not shift the crossover regime, the spin dynamic structure factor survives both in the collisionless and hydrodynamic regimes.

Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

PubMed Central

Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

2014-01-01

Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

The impact of natural transformation on adaptation in spatially structured bacterial populations.

PubMed

Moradigaravand, Danesh; Engelstädter, Jan

2014-06-20

Recent studies have demonstrated that natural transformation and the formation of highly structured populations in bacteria are interconnected. In spite of growing evidence about this connection, little is known about the dynamics of natural transformation in spatially structured bacterial populations. In this work, we model the interdependency between the dynamics of the bacterial gene pool and those of environmental DNA in space to dissect the effect of transformation on adaptation. Our model reveals that even with only a single locus under consideration, transformation with a free DNA fragment pool results in complex adaptation dynamics that do not emerge in previous models focusing only on the gene shuffling effect of transformation at multiple loci. We demonstrate how spatial restriction on population growth and DNA diffusion in the environment affect the impact of transformation on adaptation. We found that in structured bacterial populations intermediate DNA diffusion rates predominantly cause transformation to impede adaptation by spreading deleterious alleles in the population. Overall, our model highlights distinctive evolutionary consequences of bacterial transformation in spatially restricted compared to planktonic bacterial populations.

Change in the structures, dynamics and disease-related mortality rates of the population of Qatari nationals: 2007-2011.

PubMed

Al-Thani, Mohamed H; Sadoun, Eman; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Khalifa, Shamseldin A; Sayegh, Suzan; Badawi, Alaa

2014-12-01

Developing effective public health policies and strategies for interventions necessitates an assessment of the structure, dynamics, disease rates and causes of death in a population. Lately, Qatar has undertaken development resurgence in health and economy that resulted in improving the standard of health services and health status of the entire Qatari population (i.e., Qatari nationals and non-Qatari residents). No study has attempted to evaluate the population structure/dynamics and recent changes in disease-related mortality rates among Qatari nationals. The present study examines the population structure/dynamics and the related changes in the cause-specific mortality rates and disease prevalence in the Qatari nationals. This is a retrospective, analytic descriptive analysis covering a period of 5years (2007-2011) and utilizes a range of data sources from the State of Qatar including the population structure, disease-related mortality rates, and the prevalence of a range of chronic and infectious diseases. Factors reflecting population dynamics such as crude death (CDR), crude birth (CBR), total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality (IMR) rates were also calculated. The Qatari nationals is an expansive population with an annual growth rate of ∼4% and a stable male:female ratio. The CDR declined by 15% within the study period, whereas the CBR was almost stable. The total disease-specific death rate, however, was decreased among the Qatari nationals by 23% due to the decline in mortality rates attributed to diseases of the blood and immune system (43%), nervous system (44%) and cardiovascular system (41%). There was a high prevalence of a range of chronic diseases, whereas very low frequencies of the infectious diseases within the study population. Public health strategies, approaches and programs developed to reduce disease burden and the related death, should be tailored to target the population of Qatari nationals which exhibits characteristics that vary from the entire Qatari population. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

2004-04-01

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

Influence of local demography on asymptotic and transient dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Van Vuren, Dirk H

2009-04-01

Despite recent advances in biodemography and metapopulation ecology, we still have limited understanding of how local demographic parameters influence short- and long-term metapopulation dynamics. We used long-term data from 17 local populations, along with the recently developed methods of matrix metapopulation modeling and transient sensitivity analysis, to investigate the influence of local demography on long-term (asymptotic) versus short-term (transient) dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation in Colorado. Both long- and short-term dynamics depended primarily on a few colony sites and were highly sensitive to changes in demography at these sites, particularly in survival of reproductive adult females. Interestingly, the relative importance of sites differed between long- and short-term dynamics; the spatial structure and local population sizes, while insignificant for asymptotic dynamics, were influential on transient dynamics. However, considering the spatial structure was uninformative about the relative influence of local demography on metapopulation dynamics. The vital rates that were the most influential on local dynamics were also the most influential on both long- and short-term metapopulation dynamics. Our results show that an explicit consideration of local demography is essential for a complete understanding of the dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations.

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

PubMed Central

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

Native fishes in the Truckee River: Are in-stream structures and patterns of population genetic structure related?

PubMed

Peacock, Mary M; Gustin, Mae S; Kirchoff, Veronica S; Robinson, Morgan L; Hekkala, Evon; Pizzarro-Barraza, Claudia; Loux, Tim

2016-09-01

In-stream structures are recognized as significant impediments to movement for freshwater fishes. Apex predators such as salmonids have been the focus of much research on the impacts of such barriers to population dynamics and population viability however much less research has focused on native fishes, where in-stream structures may have a greater impact on long term population viability of these smaller, less mobile species. Patterns of genetic structure on a riverscape can provide information on which structures represent real barriers to movement for fish species and under what specific flow conditions. Here we characterize the impact of 41 dam and diversion structures on movement dynamics under varying flow conditions for a suite of six native fishes found in the Truckee River of California and Nevada. Microsatellite loci were used to estimate total allelic diversity, effective population size and assess genetic population structure. Although there is spatial overlap among species within the river there are clear differences in species distributions within the watershed. Observed population genetic structure was associated with in-stream structures, but only under low flow conditions. High total discharge in 2006 allowed fish to move over potential barriers resulting in no observed population genetic structure for any species in 2007. The efficacy of in-stream structures to impede movement and isolate fish emerged only after multiple years of low flow conditions. Our results suggest that restricted movement of fish species, as a result of in-stream barriers, can be mitigated by flow management. However, as flow dynamics are likely to be altered under global climate change, fragmentation due to barriers could isolate stream fishes into small subpopulations susceptible to both demographic losses and losses of genetic variation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary dynamics on any population structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Benjamin; Lippner, Gabor; Chen, Yu-Ting; Fotouhi, Babak; Momeni, Naghmeh; Yau, Shing-Tung; Nowak, Martin A.

2017-03-01

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. The structure of a population can affect which traits evolve. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics in structured populations remains difficult. Mathematical results are known for special structures in which all individuals have the same number of neighbours. The general case, in which the number of neighbours can vary, has remained open. For arbitrary selection intensity, the problem is in a computational complexity class that suggests there is no efficient algorithm. Whether a simple solution for weak selection exists has remained unanswered. Here we provide a solution for weak selection that applies to any graph or network. Our method relies on calculating the coalescence times of random walks. We evaluate large numbers of diverse population structures for their propensity to favour cooperation. We study how small changes in population structure—graph surgery—affect evolutionary outcomes. We find that cooperation flourishes most in societies that are based on strong pairwise ties.

Age or stage structure? A comparison of dynamic outcomes from discrete age- and stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Wikan, Arild

2012-06-01

Discrete stage-structured density-dependent and discrete age-structured density-dependent population models are considered. Regarding the former, we prove that the model at hand is permanent (i.e., that the population will neither go extinct nor exhibit explosive oscillations) and given density dependent fecundity terms we also show that species with delayed semelparous life histories tend to be more stable than species which possess precocious semelparous life histories. Moreover, our findings together with results obtained from other stage-structured models seem to illustrate a fairly general ecological principle, namely that iteroparous species are more stable than semelparous species. Our analysis of various age-structured models does not necessarily support the conclusions above. In fact, species with precocious life histories now appear to possess better stability properties than species with delayed life histories, especially in the iteroparous case. We also show that there are dynamical outcomes from semelparous age-structured models which we are not able to capture in corresponding stage-structured cases. Finally, both age- and stage-structured population models may generate periodic dynamics of low period (either exact or approximate). The important prerequisite is to assume density-dependent survival probabilities.

Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

PubMed Central

Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

2015-01-01

Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

A juvenile-adult population model: climate change, cannibalism, reproductive synchrony, and strong Allee effects.

PubMed

Veprauskas, Amy; Cushing, J M

2017-03-01

We study a discrete time, structured population dynamic model that is motivated by recent field observations concerning certain life history strategies of colonial-nesting gulls, specifically the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens). The model focuses on mechanisms hypothesized to play key roles in a population's response to degraded environment resources, namely, increased cannibalism and adjustments in reproductive timing. We explore the dynamic consequences of these mechanics using a juvenile-adult structure model. Mathematically, the model is unusual in that it involves a high co-dimension bifurcation at [Formula: see text] which, in turn, leads to a dynamic dichotomy between equilibrium states and synchronized oscillatory states. We give diagnostic criteria that determine which dynamic is stable. We also explore strong Allee effects caused by positive feedback mechanisms in the model and the possible consequence that a cannibalistic population can survive when a non-cannibalistic population cannot.

Regional Population Dynamics

Treesearch

Andrew Birt

2011-01-01

The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

Stand development and population dynamics of curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) woodlands in Utah's Bear River Mountains

Treesearch

Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long

2011-01-01

Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...

Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly.

PubMed

Hanski, Ilkka A

2011-08-30

Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time.

Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

A kinetic theory for age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but they are structurally unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., carrying capacity) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a BBGKY-like hierarchy. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution. NSF.

How Ebola impacts social dynamics in gorillas: a multistate modelling approach.

PubMed

Genton, Céline; Pierre, Amandine; Cristescu, Romane; Lévréro, Florence; Gatti, Sylvain; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Ménard, Nelly; Le Gouar, Pascaline

2015-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases can induce rapid changes in population dynamics and threaten population persistence. In socially structured populations, the transfers of individuals between social units, for example, from breeding groups to non-breeding groups, shape population dynamics. We suggest that diseases may affect these crucial transfers. We aimed to determine how disturbance by an emerging disease affects demographic rates of gorillas, especially transfer rates within populations and immigration rates into populations. We compared social dynamics and key demographic parameters in a gorilla population affected by Ebola using a long-term observation data set including pre-, during and post-outbreak periods. We also studied a population of undetermined epidemiological status in order to assess whether this population was affected by the disease. We developed a multistate model that can handle transition between social units while optimizing the number of states. During the Ebola outbreak, social dynamics displayed increased transfers from a breeding to a non-breeding status for both males and females. Six years after the outbreak, demographic and most of social dynamics parameters had returned to their initial rates, suggesting a certain resilience in the response to disruption. The formation of breeding groups increased just after Ebola, indicating that environmental conditions were still attractive. However, population recovery was likely delayed because compensatory immigration was probably impeded by the potential impact of Ebola in the surrounding areas. The population of undetermined epidemiological status behaved similarly to the other population before Ebola. Our results highlight the need to integrate social dynamics in host-population demographic models to better understand the role of social structure in the sensitivity and the response to disease disturbances. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Nguyen, Vuong; Dickman, Chris R

2016-10-01

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13-22 years) from a large (8000 km(2)) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.

Strategy selection in structured populations.

PubMed

Tarnita, Corina E; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Antal, Tibor; Fu, Feng; Nowak, Martin A

2009-08-07

Evolutionary game theory studies frequency dependent selection. The fitness of a strategy is not constant, but depends on the relative frequencies of strategies in the population. This type of evolutionary dynamics occurs in many settings of ecology, infectious disease dynamics, animal behavior and social interactions of humans. Traditionally evolutionary game dynamics are studied in well-mixed populations, where the interaction between any two individuals is equally likely. There have also been several approaches to study evolutionary games in structured populations. In this paper we present a simple result that holds for a large variety of population structures. We consider the game between two strategies, A and B, described by the payoff matrix(abcd). We study a mutation and selection process. For weak selection strategy A is favored over B if and only if sigma a+b>c+sigma d. This means the effect of population structure on strategy selection can be described by a single parameter, sigma. We present the values of sigma for various examples including the well-mixed population, games on graphs, games in phenotype space and games on sets. We give a proof for the existence of such a sigma, which holds for all population structures and update rules that have certain (natural) properties. We assume weak selection, but allow any mutation rate. We discuss the relationship between sigma and the critical benefit to cost ratio for the evolution of cooperation. The single parameter, sigma, allows us to quantify the ability of a population structure to promote the evolution of cooperation or to choose efficient equilibria in coordination games.

Life history determines genetic structure and evolutionary potential of host–parasite interactions

PubMed Central

Barrett, Luke G.; Thrall, Peter H.; Burdon, Jeremy J.; Linde, Celeste C.

2009-01-01

Measures of population genetic structure and diversity of disease-causing organisms are commonly used to draw inferences regarding their evolutionary history and potential to generate new variation in traits that determine interactions with their hosts. Parasite species exhibit a range of population structures and life-history strategies, including different transmission modes, life-cycle complexity, off-host survival mechanisms and dispersal ability. These are important determinants of the frequency and predictability of interactions with host species. Yet the complex causal relationships between spatial structure, life history and the evolutionary dynamics of parasite populations are not well understood. We demonstrate that a clear picture of the evolutionary potential of parasitic organisms and their demographic and evolutionary histories can only come from understanding the role of life history and spatial structure in influencing population dynamics and epidemiological patterns. PMID:18947899

Life history determines genetic structure and evolutionary potential of host-parasite interactions.

PubMed

Barrett, Luke G; Thrall, Peter H; Burdon, Jeremy J; Linde, Celeste C

2008-12-01

Measures of population genetic structure and diversity of disease-causing organisms are commonly used to draw inferences regarding their evolutionary history and potential to generate new variation in traits that determine interactions with their hosts. Parasite species exhibit a range of population structures and life-history strategies, including different transmission modes, life-cycle complexity, off-host survival mechanisms and dispersal ability. These are important determinants of the frequency and predictability of interactions with host species. Yet the complex causal relationships between spatial structure, life history and the evolutionary dynamics of parasite populations are not well understood. We demonstrate that a clear picture of the evolutionary potential of parasitic organisms and their demographic and evolutionary histories can only come from understanding the role of life history and spatial structure in influencing population dynamics and epidemiological patterns.

The influence of historical climate on the population dynamics of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact...

Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

PubMed Central

Hanski, Ilkka A.

2011-01-01

Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time. PMID:21788506

Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2018-01-01

Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

G-quadruplex dynamics.

PubMed

Harkness, Robert W; Mittermaier, Anthony K

2017-11-01

G-quadruplexes (GQs) are four-stranded nucleic acid secondary structures formed by guanosine (G)-rich DNA and RNA sequences. It is becoming increasingly clear that cellular processes including gene expression and mRNA translation are regulated by GQs. GQ structures have been extensively characterized, however little attention to date has been paid to their conformational dynamics, despite the fact that many biological GQ sequences populate multiple structures of similar free energies, leading to an ensemble of exchanging conformations. The impact of these dynamics on biological function is currently not well understood. Recently, structural dynamics have been demonstrated to entropically stabilize GQ ensembles, potentially modulating gene expression. Transient, low-populated states in GQ ensembles may additionally regulate nucleic acid interactions and function. This review will underscore the interplay of GQ dynamics and biological function, focusing on several dynamic processes for biological GQs and the characterization of GQ dynamics by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy in conjunction with other biophysical techniques. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Biophysics in Canada, edited by Lewis Kay, John Baenziger, Albert Berghuis and Peter Tieleman. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

Genetic connectivity among swarming sites in the wide ranging and recently declining little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus)

PubMed Central

Burns, Lynne E; Frasier, Timothy R; Broders, Hugh G

2014-01-01

Characterizing movement dynamics and spatial aspects of gene flow within a species permits inference on population structuring. As patterns of structuring are products of historical and current demographics and gene flow, assessment of structure through time can yield an understanding of evolutionary dynamics acting on populations that are necessary to inform management. Recent dramatic population declines in hibernating bats in eastern North America from white-nose syndrome have prompted the need for information on movement dynamics for multiple bat species. We characterized population genetic structure of the little brown bat, Myotis lucifugus, at swarming sites in southeastern Canada using 9 nuclear microsatellites and a 292-bp region of the mitochondrial genome. Analyses of FST, ΦST, and Bayesian clustering (STRUCTURE) found weak levels of genetic structure among swarming sites for the nuclear and mitochondrial genome (Global FST = 0.001, P < 0.05, Global ΦST = 0.045, P < 0.01, STRUCTURE K = 1) suggesting high contemporary gene flow. Hierarchical AMOVA also suggests little structuring at a regional (provincial) level. Metrics of nuclear genetic structure were not found to differ between males and females suggesting weak asymmetries in gene flow between the sexes. However, a greater degree of mitochondrial structuring does support male-biased dispersal long term. Demographic analyses were consistent with past population growth and suggest a population expansion occurred from approximately 1250 to 12,500 BP, following Pleistocene deglaciation in the region. Our study suggests high gene flow and thus a high degree of connectivity among bats that visit swarming sites whereby mainland areas of the region may be best considered as one large gene pool for management and conservation. PMID:25505539

Two disjunct Pleistocene populations and anisotropic postglacial expansion shaped the current genetic structure of the relict plant Amborella trichopoda

PubMed Central

Tournebize, Rémi; Manel, Stéphanie; Vigouroux, Yves; Munoz, François; de Kochko, Alexandre

2017-01-01

Past climate fluctuations shaped the population dynamics of organisms in space and time, and have impacted their present intra-specific genetic structure. Demo-genetic modelling allows inferring the way past demographic and migration dynamics have determined this structure. Amborella trichopoda is an emblematic relict plant endemic to New Caledonia, widely distributed in the understory of non-ultramafic rainforests. We assessed the influence of the last glacial climates on the demographic history and the paleo-distribution of 12 Amborella populations covering the whole current distribution. We performed coalescent genetic modelling of these dynamics, based on both whole-genome resequencing and microsatellite genotyping data. We found that the two main genetic groups of Amborella were shaped by the divergence of two ancestral populations during the last glacial maximum. From 12,800 years BP, the South ancestral population has expanded 6.3-fold while the size of the North population has remained stable. Recent asymmetric gene flow between the groups further contributed to the phylogeographical pattern. Spatially explicit coalescent modelling allowed us to estimate the location of ancestral populations with good accuracy (< 22 km) and provided indications regarding the mid-elevation pathways that facilitated post-glacial expansion. PMID:28820899

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

PubMed

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

Structural drift: the population dynamics of sequential learning.

PubMed

Crutchfield, James P; Whalen, Sean

2012-01-01

We introduce a theory of sequential causal inference in which learners in a chain estimate a structural model from their upstream "teacher" and then pass samples from the model to their downstream "student". It extends the population dynamics of genetic drift, recasting Kimura's selectively neutral theory as a special case of a generalized drift process using structured populations with memory. We examine the diffusion and fixation properties of several drift processes and propose applications to learning, inference, and evolution. We also demonstrate how the organization of drift process space controls fidelity, facilitates innovations, and leads to information loss in sequential learning with and without memory.

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

Preoutbreak dynamics of a recently established invasive herbivore: roles of natural enemies and habitat structure in stage-specific performance of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) populations in northeastern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Rebecca Hoffman Gray; Craig G. Lorimer; Patrick C. Tobin; Kenneth F. Raffa

2008-01-01

A major challenge to addressing biological invasions is that the need for emergency responses often precludes opportunities to analyze the dynamics between initial establishment and population eruption. Thus, a broader understanding of underlying processes and management opportunities is often lacking. We examined the effects of habitat structure and natural enemies on...

Steady states and outbreaks of two-phase nonlinear age-structured model of population dynamics with discrete time delay.

PubMed

Akimenko, Vitalii; Anguelov, Roumen

2017-12-01

In this paper we study the nonlinear age-structured model of a polycyclic two-phase population dynamics including delayed effect of population density growth on the mortality. Both phases are modelled as a system of initial boundary values problem for semi-linear transport equation with delay and initial problem for nonlinear delay ODE. The obtained system is studied both theoretically and numerically. Three different regimes of population dynamics for asymptotically stable states of autonomous systems are obtained in numerical experiments for the different initial values of population density. The quasi-periodical travelling wave solutions are studied numerically for the autonomous system with the different values of time delays and for the system with oscillating death rate and birth modulus. In both cases it is observed three types of travelling wave solutions: harmonic oscillations, pulse sequence and single pulse.

Phylodynamics with Migration: A Computational Framework to Quantify Population Structure from Genomic Data.

PubMed

Kühnert, Denise; Stadler, Tanja; Vaughan, Timothy G; Drummond, Alexei J

2016-08-01

When viruses spread, outbreaks can be spawned in previously unaffected regions. Depending on the time and mode of introduction, each regional outbreak can have its own epidemic dynamics. The migration and phylodynamic processes are often intertwined and need to be taken into account when analyzing temporally and spatially structured virus data. In this article, we present a fully probabilistic approach for the joint reconstruction of phylodynamic history in structured populations (such as geographic structure) based on a multitype birth-death process. This approach can be used to quantify the spread of a pathogen in a structured population. Changes in epidemic dynamics through time within subpopulations are incorporated through piecewise constant changes in transmission parameters.We analyze a global human influenza H3N2 virus data set from a geographically structured host population to demonstrate how seasonal dynamics can be inferred simultaneously with the phylogeny and migration process. Our results suggest that the main migration path among the northern, tropical, and southern region represented in the sample analyzed here is the one leading from the tropics to the northern region. Furthermore, the time-dependent transmission dynamics between and within two HIV risk groups, heterosexuals and injecting drug users, in the Latvian HIV epidemic are investigated. Our analyses confirm that the Latvian HIV epidemic peaking around 2001 was mainly driven by the injecting drug user risk group. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

GENETICS AND POPULATION-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Genetic variation defines population structure and provides the mechanism for populations to adapt to novel stressors. Despite its fundamental importance in understanding populations, genetic information has been included rarely in models of population dynamics (endangered speci...

Disease-emergence dynamics and control in a socially-structured wildlife species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, Kim M.; Vercauteren, Kurt C.

2016-04-01

Once a pathogen is introduced in a population, key factors governing rate of spread include contact structure, supply of susceptible individuals and pathogen life-history. We examined the interplay of these factors on emergence dynamics and efficacy of disease prevention and response. We contrasted transmission dynamics of livestock viruses with different life-histories in hypothetical populations of feral swine with different contact structures (homogenous, metapopulation, spatial and network). Persistence probability was near 0 for the FMDV-like case under a wide range of parameter values and contact structures, while persistence was probable for the CSFV-like case. There were no sets of conditions where the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in every stochastic simulation. Even when population growth rates were up to 300% annually, the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in <25% of simulations regardless of transmission probabilities and contact structure. For networks and spatial contact structure, persistence probability of the FMDV-like pathogen was always <10%. Because of its low persistence probability, even very early response to the FMDV-like pathogen in feral swine was unwarranted while response to the CSFV-like pathogen was generally effective. When pre-emergence culling of feral swine caused population declines, it was effective at decreasing outbreak size of both diseases by ≥80%.

Fixation Times in Deme Structured, Finite Populations with Rare Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauert, Christoph; Chen, Yu-Ting; Imhof, Lorens A.

2014-08-01

Population structure affects both the outcome and the speed of evolutionary dynamics. Here we consider a finite population that is divided into subpopulations called demes. The dynamics within the demes are stochastic and frequency-dependent. Individuals can adopt one of two strategic types, or . The fitness of each individual is determined by interactions with other individuals in the same deme. With small probability, proportional to fitness, individuals migrate to other demes. The outcome of these dynamics has been studied earlier by analyzing the fixation probability of a single mutant in an otherwise homogeneous population. These results give only a partial picture of the dynamics, because the time when fixation occurs can be exceedingly large. In this paper, we study the impact of deme structures on the speed of evolution. We derive analytical approximations of fixation times in the limit of rare migration and rare mutation. In this limit, the conditional fixation time of a single mutant in a population is the same as that of a single in an population. For the prisoner's dilemma game, simulation results fit very well with our analytical predictions and demonstrate that fixation takes place in a moderate amount of time as compared to the expected waiting time until a mutant successfully invades and fixates. The simulations also confirm that the conditional fixation time of a single cooperator is indeed the same as that of a single defector.

Investigating the Genetic Diversity, Population Differentiation and Population Dynamics of Cycas segmentifida (Cycadaceae) Endemic to Southwest China by Multiple Molecular Markers

PubMed Central

Feng, Xiuyan; Liu, Jian; Chiang, Yu-Chung; Gong, Xun

2017-01-01

Climate change, species dispersal ability and habitat fragmentation are major factors influencing species distribution and genetic diversity, especially for the range-restricted and threatened taxa. Here, using four sequences of chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs), three nuclear genes (nDNAs) and 12 nuclear microsatellites (SSRs), we investigated the genetic diversity, genetic structure, divergence time and population dynamics of Cycas segmentifida D. Y. Wang and C. Y. Deng, a threatened cycad species endemic to Southwest China. High levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation were revealed in C. segmentifida. Haplotypes of networks showed two evolutionary units in C. segmentifida, with the exception of the nuclear gene GTP network. Meanwhile, the UPGMA tree, structure and PCoA analyses suggested that 14 populations of C. segmentifida were divided into two clades. There was significant effect of isolation by distance (IBD) in this species. However, this species did not display a significant phylogeographic structure. The divergence time estimation suggested that its haplotypes diverged during the Middle Pleistocene. Additionally, the population dynamics inferred from different DNA sequences analyses were discordant. Bottleneck analysis showed that populations of C. segmentifida did not experience any recent bottleneck effect, but rather pointed to a contraction of its effective population size over time. Furthermore, our results suggested that the population BM which held an intact population structure and occupied undisturbed habitat was at the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, implying that this population is a free-mating system. These genetic features provide important information for the sustainable management of C. segmentifida. PMID:28580005

Spatiotemporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus associated with its rodent host, Myodes glareolus

PubMed Central

Weber de Melo, Vanessa; Sheikh Ali, Hanan; Freise, Jona; Kühnert, Denise; Essbauer, Sandra; Mertens, Marc; Wanka, Konrad M; Drewes, Stephan; Ulrich, Rainer G; Heckel, Gerald

2015-01-01

Many viruses significantly impact human and animal health. Understanding the population dynamics of these viruses and their hosts can provide important insights for epidemiology and virus evolution. Puumala virus (PUUV) is a European hantavirus that may cause regional outbreaks of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in humans. Here, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of PUUV circulating in local populations of its rodent reservoir host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) during eight years. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of all three genome segments of PUUV showed strong geographical structuring at a very local scale. There was a high temporal turnover of virus strains in the local bank vole populations, but several virus strains persisted through multiple years. Phylodynamic analyses showed no significant changes in the local effective population sizes of PUUV, although vole numbers and virus prevalence fluctuated widely. Microsatellite data demonstrated also a temporally persisting subdivision between local vole populations, but these groups did not correspond to the subdivision in the virus strains. We conclude that restricted transmission between vole populations and genetic drift play important roles in shaping the genetic structure and temporal dynamics of PUUV in its natural host which has several implications for zoonotic risks of the human population. PMID:26136821

Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions

PubMed Central

Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

2014-01-01

Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics. PMID:24769917

Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

[Age structure and dynamics of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain of Shanxi Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Shangguan, Tie-Liang; Duan, Yi-Hao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Wei-Hua; Guo, Dong-Gang

2014-11-01

Using the plant survivorship theory, the age structure, and the relationship between tree height and diameter (DBH) of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain were analyzed, and the static life table was compiled and the survival curve plotted. The shuttle shape in age structure of Q. wutaishanica population suggested its temporal stability. The linear regression significantly fitted the positive correlation between tree height and DBH. The maximal life expectancy was observed among the trees beyond the age of the highest mortality and coincided with the lowest point of mortality density, suggesting the strong vitality of the seedlings and young trees that survived in the natural selection and intraspecific competition. The population stability of the Q. wutaishanica population was characterized by the Deevey-II of the survival curve. The dynamic pattern was characterized by the recession in the early phase, growth in the intermediate phase, and stability in the latter phase.

The σ law of evolutionary dynamics in community-structured population.

PubMed

Tang, Changbing; Li, Xiang; Cao, Lang; Zhan, Jingyuan

2012-08-07

Evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations provide a new framework to understand the selection of traits with frequency-dependent fitness. Recently, a simple but fundamental law of evolutionary dynamics, which we call σ law, describes how to determine the selection between two competing strategies: in most evolutionary processes with two strategies, A and B, strategy A is favored over B in weak selection if and only if σR+S>T+σP. This relationship holds for a wide variety of structured populations with mutation rate and weak selection under certain assumptions. In this paper, we propose a model of games based on a community-structured population and revisit this law under the Moran process. By calculating the average payoffs of A and B individuals with the method of effective sojourn time, we find that σ features not only the structured population characteristics, but also the reaction rate between individuals. That is to say, an interaction between two individuals are not uniform, and we can take σ as a reaction rate between any two individuals with the same strategy. We verify this viewpoint by the modified replicator equation with non-uniform interaction rates in a simplified version of the prisoner's dilemma game (PDG). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review

PubMed Central

Perc, Matjaž; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

2013-01-01

Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

Preface of the "Symposium on Mathematical Models and Methods to investigate Heterogeneity in Cell and Cell Population Biology"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clairambault, Jean

2016-06-01

This session investigates hot topics related to mathematical representations of cell and cell population dynamics in biology and medicine, in particular, but not only, with applications to cancer. Methods in mathematical modelling and analysis, and in statistical inference using single-cell and cell population data, should contribute to focus this session on heterogeneity in cell populations. Among other methods are proposed: a) Intracellular protein dynamics and gene regulatory networks using ordinary/partial/delay differential equations (ODEs, PDEs, DDEs); b) Representation of cell population dynamics using agent-based models (ABMs) and/or PDEs; c) Hybrid models and multiscale models to integrate single-cell dynamics into cell population behaviour; d) Structured cell population dynamics and asymptotic evolution w.r.t. relevant traits; e) Heterogeneity in cancer cell populations: origin, evolution, phylogeny and methods of reconstruction; f) Drug resistance as an evolutionary phenotype: predicting and overcoming it in therapeutics; g) Theoretical therapeutic optimisation of combined drug treatments in cancer cell populations and in populations of other organisms, such as bacteria.

Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom

2016-01-01

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

Simple deterministic models and applications. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hyun Mo

2015-12-01

Currently, discrete modellings are largely accepted due to the access to computers with huge storage capacity and high performance processors and easy implementation of algorithms, allowing to develop and simulate increasingly sophisticated models. Wang et al. [7] present a review of dynamics in complex networks, focusing on the interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. By doing an extensive review regarding to the human behavior responding to disease dynamics, the authors briefly describe the complex dynamics found in the literature: well-mixed populations networks, where spatial structure can be neglected, and other networks considering heterogeneity on spatially distributed populations. As controlling mechanisms are implemented, such as social distancing due 'social contagion', quarantine, non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination, adaptive behavior can occur in human population, which can be easily taken into account in the dynamics formulated by networked populations.

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yang; Lee, Harry F.; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368–1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China. PMID:28792976

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Most spatial models of host–parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:27798295

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

PubMed

Lion, S; Gandon, S

2016-10-26

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2007-01-01

Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

Roles of dispersal, stochasticity, and nonlinear dynamics in the spatial structuring of seasonal natural enemy-victim populations

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Ottar N. Bjornstad

2005-01-01

Natural enemy-victim systems may exhibit a range of dynamic space-time patterns. We used a theoretical framework to study spatiotemporal structuring in a transient natural enemy-victim system subject to differential rates of dispersal, stochastic forcing, and nonlinear dynamics. Highly mobile natural enemies that attacked less mobile victims were locally spatially...

High Connectivity among Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus) Populations in the Western South Atlantic

PubMed Central

Kersanach, Ralf; Cortinhas, Maria Cristina Silva; Prata, Pedro Fernandes Sanmartin; Dumont, Luiz Felipe Cestari; Proietti, Maíra Carneiro; Maggioni, Rodrigo; D’Incao, Fernando

2016-01-01

Population connectivity in the blue crab Callinectes sapidus was evaluated along 740 km of the Western South Atlantic coast. Blue crabs are the most exploited portunid in Brazil. Despite their economic importance, few studies report their ecology or population structure. Here we sampled four estuarine areas in southern Brazil during winter 2013 and summer 2014 in order to evaluate diversity, gene flow and structure of these populations. Nine microsatellite markers were evaluated for 213 adult crabs, with identification of seven polymorphic loci and 183 alleles. Pairwise FST values indicated low population structure ranging from -0.00023 to 0.01755. A Mantel test revealed that the geographic distance does not influence genetic (r = -0.48), and structure/migration rates confirmed this, showing that even the populations located at the opposite extremities of our covered region presented low FST and exchanged migrants. These findings show that there is a significant amount of gene flow between blue crab populations in South Brazil, likely influenced by local current dynamics that allow the transport of a high number of larvae between estuaries. Considering the elevated gene flow, the populations can be considered a single genetic stock. However, further information on population size and dynamics, as well as fishery demands and impacts at different regions, are necessary for harvest management purposes. PMID:27064977

The effect of climatic forcing on population synchrony and genetic structuring of the Canadian lynx

PubMed Central

Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Rueness, Eli Knispel; Lingjærde, Ole Chr.; Chan, Kung-Sik; Boutin, Stan; O'Donoghue, Mark; Robinson, David A.; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Jakobsen, Kjetill S.

2004-01-01

The abundance of Canadian lynx follows 10-year density fluctuations across the Canadian subcontinent. These cyclic fluctuations have earlier been shown to be geographically structured into three climatic regions: the Atlantic, Continental, and Pacific zones. Recent genetic evidence revealed an essentially similar spatial structuring. Introducing a new population model, the “climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns” model, we link the observed ecological and evolutionary patterns. Specifically, we demonstrate that there is greater phase synchrony within climatic zones than between them and show that external climatic forcing may act as a synchronizer. We simulated genetic drift by using data on population dynamics generated by the climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns model, and we demonstrate that the observed genetic structuring can be seen as an emerging property of the spatiotemporal ecological dynamics. PMID:15067131

Predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics on stepping-stone domains.

PubMed

Shen, Lulan; Van Gorder, Robert A

2017-05-07

Predator-prey-subsidy dynamics on stepping-stone domains are examined using a variety of network configurations. Our problem is motivated by the interactions between arctic foxes (predator) and lemmings (prey) in the presence of seal carrion (subsidy) provided by polar bears. We use the n-Patch Model, which considers space explicitly as a "Stepping Stone" system. We consider the role that the carrying capacity, predator migration rate, input subsidy rate, predator mortality rate, and proportion of predators surviving migration play in the predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics. We find that for certain types of networks, added mobility will help predator populations, allowing them to survive or coexist when they would otherwise go extinct if confined to one location, while in other situations (such as when sparsely distributed nodes in the network have few resources available) the added mobility will hurt the predator population. We also find that a combination of favourable conditions for the prey and subsidy can lead to the formation of limit cycles (boom and bust dynamic) from stable equilibrium states. These modifications to the dynamics vary depending on the specific network structure employed, highlighting the fact that network structure can strongly influence the predator-prey-subsidy dynamics in stepping-stone domains. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing source-sink dynamics with genetic parentage assignments

Treesearch

M. Zachariah Peery; Steven R. Beissinger; Roger F. House; Martine Berube; Laurie A. Hall; Anna Sellas; Per J. Palsboll

2008-01-01

Source-sink dynamics have been suggested to characterize the population structure of many species, but the prevalence of source-sink systems in nature is uncertain because of inherent challenges in estimating migration rates among populations. Migration rates are often difficult to estimate directly with demographic methods, and indirect genetic methods are subject to...

Source-sink dynamics sustain central stonerollers (Campostoma anomalum) in a heavily urbanized catchment

Treesearch

Eric R. Waits; Mark J. Bagley; Michael J. Blum; Frank H. McCormick; James M. Lazorchak

2008-01-01

Relating local demographic processes to spatial structure (e.g. habitat heterogeneity) is essential for understanding population and species persistence (Hanski & Gilpin, 1997; Fagan, 2002). Yet few studies have tested general hypotheses about the importance of spatial patterns in determining population dynamics within river­stream networks (Lowe, Likens &...

Spatial structure and nutrients promote invasion of IncP-1 plasmids in bacterial populations

PubMed Central

Fox, Randal E; Zhong, Xue; Krone, Stephen M; Top, Eva M

2008-01-01

In spite of the importance of plasmids in bacterial adaptation, we have a poor understanding of their dynamics. It is not known if or how plasmids persist in and spread through (invade) a bacterial population when there is no selection for plasmid-encoded traits. Moreover, the differences in dynamics between spatially structured and mixed populations are poorly understood. Through a joint experimental/theoretical approach, we tested the hypothesis that self-transmissible IncP-1 plasmids can invade a bacterial population in the absence of selection when initially very rare, but only in spatially structured habitats and when nutrients are regularly replenished. Using protocols that differed in the degree of spatial structure and nutrient levels, the invasiveness of plasmid pB10 in Escherichia coli was monitored during at least 15 days, with an initial fraction of plasmid-bearing (p+) cells as low as 10−7. To further explore the mechanisms underlying plasmid dynamics, we developed a spatially explicit mathematical model. When cells were grown on filters and transferred to fresh medium daily, the p+ fraction increased to 13%, whereas almost complete invasion occurred when the population structure was disturbed daily. The plasmid was unable to invade in liquid. When carbon source levels were lower or not replenished, plasmid invasion was hampered. Simulations of the mathematical model closely matched the experimental results and produced estimates of the effects of alternative experimental parameters. This allowed us to isolate the likely mechanisms most responsible for the observations. In conclusion, spatial structure and nutrient availability can be key determinants in the invasiveness of plasmids. PMID:18528415

Interacting Effects of Newcastle Disease Transmission and Illegal Trade on a Wild Population of White-Winged Parakeets in Peru: A Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Daut, Elizabeth F.; Lahodny, Glenn; Peterson, Markus J.; Ivanek, Renata

2016-01-01

Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru’s most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest in a wild parrot population and highlight the importance of preventing illegal trade. PMID:26816214

Effects of resource quality on the population dynamics of the Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella and its granulovirus.

PubMed

McVean, Ross I; Sait, Steve M; Thompson, David J; Begon, Mike

2002-03-01

Although the Plodia interpunctella-granulovirus system is one of the most studied models for insect-pathogen interactions, there are relatively few precise data on the dynamics of the virus in coexisting populations of these two organisms. Previous work has suggested that resource quality, in terms of the diet supplied to P. interpunctella, has a strong effect on the population dynamics of host and pathogen. Here we investigate the impact of resource-dependent host patterns of abundance on pathogen dynamics and prevalence. In the laboratory, three populations of P. interpunctella feeding on a good quality food and infected with a granulovirus were compared with three populations also infected with a granulovirus but feeding on poor quality food. Populations feeding on good quality food produced larger adult moths, and had greater numbers of adult moths, healthy larvae, and virus-infected larvae. A higher proportion of larvae in these good quality populations were infected with virus, and adult moths exhibited cyclic fluctuations in abundance, unlike those on poor quality food. This cyclic behaviour was shown to be associated with cycles in the age structure of the larval population. Previous theoretical work suggests that these cycles may result from asymmetric competition between young and old larvae. Cyclic fluctuations in the proportion of infected larvae, that occurred on good, but not on poor quality food, were also shown to be related to cycles in the age structure of the larval population.

Approaching the molecular origins of collective dynamics in oscillating cell populations

PubMed Central

Mehta, Pankaj; Gregor, Thomas

2011-01-01

From flocking birds, to organ generation, to swarming bacterial colonies, biological systems often exhibit collective behaviors. Here, we review recent advances in our understanding of collective dynamics in cell populations. We argue that understanding population-level oscillations requires examining the system under consideration at three different levels of complexity: at the level of isolated cells, homogenous populations, and spatially structured populations. We discuss the experimental and theoretical challenges this poses and highlight how new experimental techniques, when combined with conceptual tools adapted from physics, may help us overcome these challenges. PMID:20934869

Using population genetic tools to develop a control strategy for feral cats (Felis catus) in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, H.; Hess, S.C.; Cole, D.; Banko, P.C.

2007-01-01

Population genetics can provide information about the demographics and dynamics of invasive species that is beneficial for developing effective control strategies. We studied the population genetics of feral cats on Hawai'i Island by microsatellite analysis to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure, assess gene flow and connectivity among three populations, identify potential source populations, characterise population dynamics, and evaluate sex-biased dispersal. High genetic diversity, low structure, and high number of migrants per generation supported high gene flow that was not limited spatially. Migration rates revealed that most migration occurred out of West Mauna Kea. Effective population size estimates indicated increasing cat populations despite control efforts. Despite high gene flow, relatedness estimates declined significantly with increased geographic distance and Bayesian assignment tests revealed the presence of three population clusters. Genetic structure and relatedness estimates indicated male-biased dispersal, primarily from Mauna Kea, suggesting that this population should be targeted for control. However, recolonisation seems likely, given the great dispersal ability that may not be inhibited by barriers such as lava flows. Genetic monitoring will be necessary to assess the effectiveness of future control efforts. Management of other invasive species may benefit by employing these population genetic tools. ?? CSIRO 2007.

[The dynamic nature of the nutrition of the population of 1 of the districts of Moscow over a 10-year period].

PubMed

Eganian, R A; Kalinina, A M; Izmaĭlova, O V; Shaternikova, I N

2000-01-01

On the basis of three-multiple research of character of a feed of the inhabitants of one of Moscow district by the standardized method of the 24-th hour interrogation reveals significant changes in structure of a feed of the population from 1986 to 1996. The shifts have appeared more dynamical in the second five-year from 1991 to 1996. Nevertheless, atherogenicity of ration of a researched population with superfluous consumption of the saturated fats and simple carbohydrates remains. Is established, in a feed of the women there were large shifts, than at the men. The structure of a feed of the inhabitants of Moscow differed from structure of a feed of the inhabitants of Russia.

Bipartite graphs as models of population structures in evolutionary multiplayer games.

PubMed

Peña, Jorge; Rochat, Yannick

2012-01-01

By combining evolutionary game theory and graph theory, "games on graphs" study the evolutionary dynamics of frequency-dependent selection in population structures modeled as geographical or social networks. Networks are usually represented by means of unipartite graphs, and social interactions by two-person games such as the famous prisoner's dilemma. Unipartite graphs have also been used for modeling interactions going beyond pairwise interactions. In this paper, we argue that bipartite graphs are a better alternative to unipartite graphs for describing population structures in evolutionary multiplayer games. To illustrate this point, we make use of bipartite graphs to investigate, by means of computer simulations, the evolution of cooperation under the conventional and the distributed N-person prisoner's dilemma. We show that several implicit assumptions arising from the standard approach based on unipartite graphs (such as the definition of replacement neighborhoods, the intertwining of individual and group diversity, and the large overlap of interaction neighborhoods) can have a large impact on the resulting evolutionary dynamics. Our work provides a clear example of the importance of construction procedures in games on graphs, of the suitability of bigraphs and hypergraphs for computational modeling, and of the importance of concepts from social network analysis such as centrality, centralization and bipartite clustering for the understanding of dynamical processes occurring on networked population structures.

Understanding the demographic drivers of realized population growth rates.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Arnold, Todd W; Schaub, Michael

2017-10-01

Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt=Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed "transient life-table response experiments" with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for Lesser Scaup over 60 yr, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in Lesser Scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of Lesser Scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about Lesser Scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Microsatellite DNA Analysis Revealed a Drastic Genetic Change of Plasmodium vivax Population in the Republic of Korea During 2002 and 2003

PubMed Central

Iwagami, Moritoshi; Hwang, Seung-Young; Kim, So-Hee; Park, So-Jung; Lee, Ga-Young; Matsumoto-Takahashi, Emilie Louise Akiko; Kho, Weon-Gyu; Kano, Shigeyuki

2013-01-01

Background Vivax malaria was successfully eliminated in the Republic of Korea (South Korea) in the late 1970s, but it was found to have re-emerged from 1993. In order to control malaria and evaluate the effectiveness of malaria controls, it is important to develop a spatiotemporal understanding of the genetic structure of the parasite population. Here, we estimated the population structure and temporal dynamics of the transmission of Plasmodium vivax in South Korea by analyzing microsatellite DNA markers of the parasite. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed 14 microsatellite DNA loci of the P. vivax genome from 163 South Korean isolates collected from 1994 to 2008. Allelic data were used to analyze linkage disequilibrium (LD), genetic differentiation and population structure, in order to make a detailed estimate of temporal change in the parasite population. The LD analysis showed a gradual decrease in LD levels, while the levels of genetic differentiation between successive years and analysis of the population structure based on the Bayesian approach suggested that a drastic genetic change occurred in the South Korean population during 2002 and 2003. Conclusions/Significance Although relapse and asymptomatic parasite carriage might influence the population structure to some extent, our results suggested the continual introduction of P. vivax into South Korea through other parasite population sources. One possible source, particularly during 2002 and 2003, is North Korea. Molecular epidemiology using microsatellite DNA of the P. vivax population is effective for assessing the population structure and temporal dynamics of parasite transmission; information that can assist in the elimination of vivax malaria in endemic areas. PMID:24205429

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamics.

PubMed

Trzcinski, M Kurtis; Walde, Sandra J; Taylor, Philip D

2008-11-01

1. Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (r(max)) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average r(max) will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2. Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3. Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of r(max) obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1 x 5 to 2 x 7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected r(max). 4. Higher r(max) was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher r(max) also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5. This study demonstrates that the link between r(max) and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations.

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

PubMed Central

Baskerville, Edward B.; Colijn, Caroline; Hanage, William; Fraser, Christophe; Lipsitch, Marc

2017-01-01

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modelled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact. PMID:28835542

Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Erez

2005-03-01

Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

[Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

PubMed

Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

2014-09-01

Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

Users Manual for the Dynamic Student Flow Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-31

populations within each pipeline are reasonably homogeneous and the pipeline curriculum provides a structured path along which the student must progress...curriculum is structured, student populations are non-homogeneous. They are drawn from diverse sources such as the Naval Aca- demy, NROTC and the Aviation...Officer Candidate program in numbers subjectively determined to provide the best population for subsequent flight training. His- torically, different

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2016-01-01

While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

Concepts and tools for predictive modeling of microbial dynamics.

PubMed

Bernaerts, Kristel; Dens, Els; Vereecken, Karen; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Standaert, Arnout R; Devlieghere, Frank; Debevere, Johan; Van Impe, Jan F

2004-09-01

Description of microbial cell (population) behavior as influenced by dynamically changing environmental conditions intrinsically needs dynamic mathematical models. In the past, major effort has been put into the modeling of microbial growth and inactivation within a constant environment (static models). In the early 1990s, differential equation models (dynamic models) were introduced in the field of predictive microbiology. Here, we present a general dynamic model-building concept describing microbial evolution under dynamic conditions. Starting from an elementary model building block, the model structure can be gradually complexified to incorporate increasing numbers of influencing factors. Based on two case studies, the fundamentals of both macroscopic (population) and microscopic (individual) modeling approaches are revisited. These illustrations deal with the modeling of (i) microbial lag under variable temperature conditions and (ii) interspecies microbial interactions mediated by lactic acid production (product inhibition). Current and future research trends should address the need for (i) more specific measurements at the cell and/or population level, (ii) measurements under dynamic conditions, and (iii) more comprehensive (mechanistically inspired) model structures. In the context of quantitative microbial risk assessment, complexity of the mathematical model must be kept under control. An important challenge for the future is determination of a satisfactory trade-off between predictive power and manageability of predictive microbiology models.

NMR Spectroscopy and Molecular Dynamics Simulation of r(CCGCUGCGG)2 Reveal a Dynamic UU Internal Loop Found in Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1†

PubMed Central

Parkesh, Raman; Fountain, Matthew; Disney, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

The NMR structure of an RNA with a copy of the 5′CUG/3′GUC motif found in the triplet repeating disorder myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) is disclosed. The lowest energy conformation of the UU pair is a single hydrogen bonded structure; however, the UU protons undergo exchange indicating structural dynamics. Molecular dynamics simulations show that the single hydrogen bonded structure is the most populated one but the UU pair interconverts between 0, 1, and 2 hydrogen bonded pairs. These studies have implications for the recognition of the DM1 RNA by small molecules and proteins. PMID:21204525

Development of conceptual ecological models linking management of the Missouri River to pallid sturgeon population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

This report documents the process of developing and refining conceptual ecological models (CEMs) for linking river management to pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) population dynamics in the Missouri River. The refined CEMs are being used in the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis to organize, document, and formalize an understanding of pallid sturgeon population responses to past and future management alternatives. The general form of the CEMs, represented by a population-level model and component life-stage models, was determined in workshops held in the summer of 2013. Subsequently, the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team designed a general hierarchical structure for the component models, refined the graphical structure, and reconciled variation among the components and between models developed for the upper river (Upper Missouri & Yellowstone Rivers) and the lower river (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam). Importance scores attributed to the relations between primary biotic characteristics and survival were used to define a candidate set of working dominant hypotheses about pallid sturgeon population dynamics. These CEMs are intended to guide research and adaptive-management actions to benefit pallid sturgeon populations in the Missouri River.

Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.

Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

PubMed Central

Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

2012-01-01

Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

Psychology and Population: An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fawcett, James T.

Psychology and Population is defined as the study of individual dispositions and behavior that affect the size, structure and dispersion of the population, and the way in which acts of individuals enter into the dynamics of population change. Even this definition was viewed as inadequate, ignoring, as it does, the reciprocal effect of population…

Folding molecular dynamics simulations accurately predict the effect of mutations on the stability and structure of a vammin-derived peptide.

PubMed

Koukos, Panagiotis I; Glykos, Nicholas M

2014-08-28

Folding molecular dynamics simulations amounting to a grand total of 4 μs of simulation time were performed on two peptides (with native and mutated sequences) derived from loop 3 of the vammin protein and the results compared with the experimentally known peptide stabilities and structures. The simulations faithfully and accurately reproduce the major experimental findings and show that (a) the native peptide is mostly disordered in solution, (b) the mutant peptide has a well-defined and stable structure, and (c) the structure of the mutant is an irregular β-hairpin with a non-glycine β-bulge, in excellent agreement with the peptide's known NMR structure. Additionally, the simulations also predict the presence of a very small β-hairpin-like population for the native peptide but surprisingly indicate that this population is structurally more similar to the structure of the native peptide as observed in the vammin protein than to the NMR structure of the isolated mutant peptide. We conclude that, at least for the given system, force field, and simulation protocol, folding molecular dynamics simulations appear to be successful in reproducing the experimentally accessible physical reality to a satisfactory level of detail and accuracy.

Temporal changes in kin structure through a population cycle in a territorial bird, the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus.

PubMed

Piertney, Stuart B; Lambin, Xavier; Maccoll, Andrew D C; Lock, Kerry; Bacon, Philip J; Dallas, John F; Leckie, Fiona; Mougeot, Francois; Racey, Paul A; Redpath, Steve; Moss, Robert

2008-05-01

Populations of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) undergo regular multiannual cycles in abundance. The 'kinship hypothesis' posits that such cycles are caused by changes in kin structure among territorial males producing delayed density-dependent changes in aggressiveness, which in turn influence recruitment and regulate density. The kinship hypothesis makes several specific predictions about the levels of kinship, aggressiveness and recruitment through a population cycle: (i) kin structure will build up during the increase phase of a cycle, but break down prior to peak density; (ii) kin structure influences aggressiveness, such that there will be a negative relationship between kinship and aggressiveness over the years; (iii) as aggressiveness regulates recruitment and density, there will be a negative relationship between aggressiveness in one year and both recruitment and density in the next; (iv) as kin structure influences recruitment via an affect on aggressiveness, there will be a positive relationship between kinship in one year and recruitment the next. Here we test these predictions through the course of an 8-year cycle in a natural population of red grouse in northeast Scotland, using microsatellite DNA markers to resolve changing patterns of kin structure, and supra-orbital comb height of grouse as an index of aggressiveness. Both kin structure and aggressiveness were dynamic through the course of the cycle, and changing patterns were entirely consistent with the expectations of the kinship hypothesis. Results are discussed in relation to potential drivers of population regulation and implications of dynamic kin structure for population genetics.

Bipartite Graphs as Models of Population Structures in Evolutionary Multiplayer Games

PubMed Central

Peña, Jorge; Rochat, Yannick

2012-01-01

By combining evolutionary game theory and graph theory, “games on graphs” study the evolutionary dynamics of frequency-dependent selection in population structures modeled as geographical or social networks. Networks are usually represented by means of unipartite graphs, and social interactions by two-person games such as the famous prisoner’s dilemma. Unipartite graphs have also been used for modeling interactions going beyond pairwise interactions. In this paper, we argue that bipartite graphs are a better alternative to unipartite graphs for describing population structures in evolutionary multiplayer games. To illustrate this point, we make use of bipartite graphs to investigate, by means of computer simulations, the evolution of cooperation under the conventional and the distributed N-person prisoner’s dilemma. We show that several implicit assumptions arising from the standard approach based on unipartite graphs (such as the definition of replacement neighborhoods, the intertwining of individual and group diversity, and the large overlap of interaction neighborhoods) can have a large impact on the resulting evolutionary dynamics. Our work provides a clear example of the importance of construction procedures in games on graphs, of the suitability of bigraphs and hypergraphs for computational modeling, and of the importance of concepts from social network analysis such as centrality, centralization and bipartite clustering for the understanding of dynamical processes occurring on networked population structures. PMID:22970237

Random and non-random mating populations: Evolutionary dynamics in meiotic drive.

PubMed

Sarkar, Bijan

2016-01-01

Game theoretic tools are utilized to analyze a one-locus continuous selection model of sex-specific meiotic drive by considering nonequivalence of the viabilities of reciprocal heterozygotes that might be noticed at an imprinted locus. The model draws attention to the role of viability selections of different types to examine the stable nature of polymorphic equilibrium. A bridge between population genetics and evolutionary game theory has been built up by applying the concept of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. In addition to pointing out the influences of male and female segregation ratios on selection, configuration structure reveals some noted results, e.g., Hardy-Weinberg frequencies hold in replicator dynamics, occurrence of faster evolution at the maximized variance fitness, existence of mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) in asymmetric games, the tending evolution to follow not only a 1:1 sex ratio but also a 1:1 different alleles ratio at particular gene locus. Through construction of replicator dynamics in the group selection framework, our selection model introduces a redefining bases of game theory to incorporate non-random mating where a mating parameter associated with population structure is dependent on the social structure. Also, the model exposes the fact that the number of polymorphic equilibria will depend on the algebraic expression of population structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint  effects of habitat configuration and temporal stochasticity on population dynamics

Treesearch

Jennifer M. Fraterrigo; Scott M. Pearson; Monica G. Turner

2009-01-01

Habitat configuration and temporal stochasticity in the environment are recognized as important drivers of population structure, yet few studies have examined the combined influence of these factors....

Metapopulation structure of the specialized herbivore Macrosiphoniella tanacetaria (Homoptera, Aphididae).

PubMed

Massonnet, Blandine; Simon, Jean-Christophe; Weisser, Wolfgang W

2002-12-01

We investigated population dynamics, genetic diversity and spatial structure in the aphid species Macrosiphoniella tanacetaria, a specialist herbivore feeding on tansy, Tanacetum vulgare. Tansy plants (genets) consist of many shoots (ramets), and genets are grouped in sites. Thus, aphids feeding on tansy can cluster at the level of ramets, genets and sites. We studied aphid population dynamics in 1997 and 2001 and found that within sites: (i). at any time, aphids used only a fraction of the available ramets and genets; (ii). at the level of ramets, most aphid colonies survived only one week; (iii). at the level of genets, mean survival time was less than 4 weeks; and (iv). colonization and extinction events occurred throughout the season. We sampled aphids in seven sites in the Alsace region, France (4-45 km apart) and two sites in Germany in 1999 to study genetic structure within and between populations. Genetic analyses using nine microsatellite loci showed that: (i). genotypic variability was high, (ii). none of the populations was in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, (iii). heterozygote deficits and linkage disequilibria were frequent, and (iv). all populations were genetically differentiated, even at a small geographical scale. Renewed sampling of the Alsace sites in 2001 showed that three populations had become extinct and significant genetic changes had occurred in the remaining four populations. The frequencies of extinction and colonization events at several spatial scales suggest a hierarchical metapopulation structure for M. tanacetaria. Frequent population turnover and drift are likely causes for the genetic differentiation of M. tanacetaria populations.

Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta.

PubMed

Bateman, Andrew W; Ozgul, Arpat; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2012-05-01

1. For social species, the link between individual behaviour and population dynamics is mediated by group-level demography. 2. Populations of obligate cooperative breeders are structured into social groups, which may be subject to inverse density dependence (Allee effects) that result from a dependence on conspecific helpers, but evidence for population-wide Allee effects is rare. 3. We use field data from a long-term study of cooperative meerkats (Suricata suricatta; Schreber, 1776) - a species for which local Allee effects are not reflected in population-level dynamics - to empirically model interannual group dynamics. 4. Using phenomenological population models, modified to incorporate environmental conditions and potential Allee effects, we first investigate overall patterns of group dynamics and find support only for conventional density dependence that increases after years of low rainfall. 5. To explain the observed patterns, we examine specific demographic rates and assess their contributions to overall group dynamics. Although per-capita meerkat mortality is subject to a component Allee effect, it contributes relatively little to observed variation in group dynamics, and other (conventionally density dependent) demographic rates - especially emigration - govern group dynamics. 6. Our findings highlight the need to consider demographic processes and density dependence in subpopulations before drawing conclusions about how behaviour affects population processes in socially complex systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Short-term effects of reduced-impact logging on Copaifera spp. (Fabaceae) regeneration in eastern Amazon

Treesearch

Carine Klauberg; Edson Vidal; Carlos Alberto Silva; Andrew Thomas Hudak; Manuela Oliveira; Pedro Higuchi

2017-01-01

Timber management directly influences the population dynamics of tree species, like Copaifera spp. (copaíba), which provide oil-resin with ecological and economic importance. The aim of this study was to evaluate the structure and population dynamics of Copaifera in unmanaged and managed stands by reduced-impact logging (RIL) in eastern Amazon in Pará state, Brazil....

Effects of landscape and patch-level attributes on regional population persistence

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat patch size and isolation are often described as the key habitat variables influencing population dynamics. Yet habitat quality may also play an important role in influencing the regional persistence of spatially structured populations as the value or density of resources ...

Stochastic dynamics of dengue epidemics.

PubMed

de Souza, David R; Tomé, Tânia; Pinho, Suani T R; Barreto, Florisneide R; de Oliveira, Mário J

2013-01-01

We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, such as dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed of two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. The human population follows a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type dynamics and the mosquito population follows a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) type dynamics. The human infection is caused by infected mosquitoes and vice versa, so that the SIS and SIR dynamics are interconnected. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. The threshold of the disease is also obtained by performing numerical simulations. We found that for certain values of the infection rates the spreading of the disease is impossible, for any death rate of infected mosquitoes.

Consequences of the Allee effect and intraspecific competition on population persistence under adverse environmental conditions.

PubMed

Petrovskii, Sergei; Blackshaw, Rod; Li, Bai-Lian

2008-02-01

The impact of intraspecific interactions on ecological stability and population persistence in terms of steady state(s) existence is considered theoretically based on a general competition model. We compare persistence of a structured population consisting of a few interacting (competitive) subpopulations, or groups, to persistence of the corresponding unstructured population. For a general case, we show that if the intra-group competition is stronger than the inter-group competition, then the structured population is less prone to extinction, i.e. it can persist in a parameter range where the unstructured population goes extinct. For a more specific case of a population with hierarchical competition, we show that relative viability of structured and unstructured populations depend on the type of density dependence in the population growth. Namely, while in the case of logistic growth, structured and unstructured populations exhibit equivalent persistence; in the case of Allee dynamics, the persistence of a hierarchically structured population is shown to be higher. We then apply these results to the case of behaviourally structured populations and demonstrate that an extreme form of individual aggression can be beneficial at the population level and enhance population persistence.

A structured population model with diffusion in structure space.

PubMed

Pugliese, Andrea; Milner, Fabio

2018-05-09

A structured population model is described and analyzed, in which individual dynamics is stochastic. The model consists of a PDE of advection-diffusion type in the structure variable. The population may represent, for example, the density of infected individuals structured by pathogen density x, [Formula: see text]. The individuals with density [Formula: see text] are not infected, but rather susceptible or recovered. Their dynamics is described by an ODE with a source term that is the exact flux from the diffusion and advection as [Formula: see text]. Infection/reinfection is then modeled moving a fraction of these individuals into the infected class by distributing them in the structure variable through a probability density function. Existence of a global-in-time solution is proven, as well as a classical bifurcation result about equilibrium solutions: a net reproduction number [Formula: see text] is defined that separates the case of only the trivial equilibrium existing when [Formula: see text] from the existence of another-nontrivial-equilibrium when [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulation results are provided to show the stabilization towards the positive equilibrium when [Formula: see text] and towards the trivial one when [Formula: see text], result that is not proven analytically. Simulations are also provided to show the Allee effect that helps boost population sizes at low densities.

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Heterogeneous population dynamics and scaling laws near epidemic outbreaks.

PubMed

Widder, Andreas; Kuehn, Christian

2016-10-01

In this paper, we focus on the influence of heterogeneity and stochasticity of the population on the dynamical structure of a basic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. First we prove that, upon a suitable mathematical reformulation of the basic reproduction number, the homogeneous system and the heterogeneous system exhibit a completely analogous global behaviour. Then we consider noise terms to incorporate the fluctuation effects and the random import of the disease into the population and analyse the influence of heterogeneity on warning signs for critical transitions (or tipping points). This theory shows that one may be able to anticipate whether a bifurcation point is close before it happens. We use numerical simulations of a stochastic fast-slow heterogeneous population SIS model and show various aspects of heterogeneity have crucial influences on the scaling laws that are used as early-warning signs for the homogeneous system. Thus, although the basic structural qualitative dynamical properties are the same for both systems, the quantitative features for epidemic prediction are expected to change and care has to be taken to interpret potential warning signs for disease outbreaks correctly.

Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; McClaren, Erica L.; Doyle, Frank I.; Titus, K.; Sage, George K.; Wilson, Robert E.; Gust, Judy R.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2012-01-01

Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue-effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.

Heterogeneous network promotes species coexistence: metapopulation model for rock-paper-scissors game.

PubMed

Nagatani, Takashi; Ichinose, Genki; Tainaka, Kei-Ichi

2018-05-04

Understanding mechanisms of biodiversity has been a central question in ecology. The coexistence of three species in rock-paper-scissors (RPS) systems are discussed by many authors; however, the relation between coexistence and network structure is rarely discussed. Here we present a metapopulation model for RPS game. The total population is assumed to consist of three subpopulations (nodes). Each individual migrates by random walk; the destination of migration is randomly determined. From reaction-migration equations, we obtain the population dynamics. It is found that the dynamic highly depends on network structures. When a network is homogeneous, the dynamics are neutrally stable: each node has a periodic solution, and the oscillations synchronize in all nodes. However, when a network is heterogeneous, the dynamics approach stable focus and all nodes reach equilibriums with different densities. Hence, the heterogeneity of the network promotes biodiversity.

Polymorphic nuclear markers for coastal plant species with dynamic geographic distributions, the rock samphire (Crithmum maritimum) and the vulnerable dune pansy (Viola tricolor subsp. curtisii).

PubMed

Latron, Mathilde; Arnaud, Jean-François; Ferla, Héloïse; Godé, Cécile; Duputié, Anne

2018-06-01

Identifying spatial patterns of genetic differentiation across a species range is critical to set up conservation and restoration decision-making. This is especially timely, since global change triggers shifts in species' geographic distribution and in the geographical variation of mating system and patterns of genetic differentiation, with varying consequences at the trailing and leading edges of a species' distribution. Using 454 pyrosequencing, we developed nuclear microsatellite loci for two plant species showing a strictly coastal geographical distribution and contrasting range dynamics: the expanding rock samphire (Crithmum maritimum, 21 loci) and the highly endangered and receding dune pansy (Viola tricolor subsp. curtisii, 12 loci). Population genetic structure was then assessed by genotyping more than 100 individuals from four populations of each of the two target species. Rock samphire displayed high levels of genetic differentiation (F ST  = 0.38), and a genetic structure typical of a mostly selfing species (F IS ranging from 0.16 to 0.58). Populations of dune pansy showed a less pronounced level of population structuring (F ST  = 0.25) and a genotypic structure more suggestive of a mixed-mating system when excluding two loci with heterozygote excess. These results demonstrate that the genetic markers developed here are useful to assess the mating system of populations of these two species. They will be tools of choice to investigate phylogeographical patterns and variation in mating system over the geographical distribution ranges for two coastal plant species that are subject to dynamic evolution due to rapid contemporary global change.

Dancing to the rhythms of the Pleistocene? Early Middle Paleolithic population dynamics in NW Iberia (Duero Basin and Cantabrian Region)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez Yustos, Policarpo; Diez Martín, Fernando

2015-08-01

The Northwest of Iberia has yielded one of the most complete European Middle Paleolithic records. Despite this wealth of information, very little is known about population dynamics during this period. For that reason, the main concern of this paper is to provide socio-environmental models that may help explain Early Middle Paleolithic (EMP) population dynamics in NW Iberia, assessing to what extent they were shaped by climate forces. The archaeological record is analyzed on the basis of the heuristics of ecological models, already employed in the European Pleistocene record but never at a regional scale, in order to detect long-term changes in the composition of EMP populations, and the environmental, biological and sociocultural process influencing those changes. According to the models proposed, we have detected a long-term population dynamic between MIS 11 and MIS 6, characterized by low environmental stress, high biological productivity, interaction among populations and sociocultural complexity. Eventually, this population dynamic was broken due to an extreme climate phase in late MIS 6 that had a profound impact on populations and sociocultural structures. As a result, the Upper Pleistocene population of NW Iberia was concentrated in the Cantabrian region. This area became an isolated Neanderthal glacial refugium that hosted a population with different origins and fragile long-term demographic stability.

Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

PubMed Central

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

2014-01-01

On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

PubMed

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

2014-05-06

On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

Bacterial population dynamics during the ensiling of Medicago sativa (alfalfa) and subsequent exposure to air.

PubMed

McGarvey, J A; Franco, R B; Palumbo, J D; Hnasko, R; Stanker, L; Mitloehner, F M

2013-06-01

To describe, at high resolution, the bacterial population dynamics and chemical transformations during the ensiling of alfalfa and subsequent exposure to air. Samples of alfalfa, ensiled alfalfa and silage exposed to air were collected and their bacterial population structures compared using 16S rRNA gene libraries containing approximately 1900 sequences each. Cultural and chemical analyses were also performed to complement the 16S gene sequence data. Sequence analysis revealed significant differences (P < 0·05) in the bacterial populations at each time point. The alfalfa-derived library contained mostly sequences associated with the Gammaproteobacteria (including the genera: Enterobacter, Erwinia and Pantoea); the ensiled material contained mostly sequences associated with the lactic acid bacteria (LAB) (including the genera: Lactobacillus, Pediococcus and Lactococcus). Exposure to air resulted in even greater percentages of LAB, especially among the genus Lactobacillus, and a significant drop in bacterial diversity. In-depth 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis revealed significant bacterial population structure changes during ensiling and again during exposure to air. This in-depth description of the bacterial population dynamics that occurred during ensiling and simulated feed out expands our knowledge of these processes. © 2013 The Society for Applied Microbiology No claim to US Government works.

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

PubMed

Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

Recasting a model atomistic glassformer as a system of icosahedra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pinney, Rhiannon; Bristol Centre for Complexity Science, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TS; Liverpool, Tanniemola B.

2015-12-28

We consider a binary Lennard-Jones glassformer whose super-Arrhenius dynamics are correlated with the formation of icosahedral structures. Upon cooling, these icosahedra organize into mesoclusters. We recast this glassformer as an effective system of icosahedra which we describe with a population dynamics model. This model we parameterize with data from the temperature regime accessible to molecular dynamics simulations. We then use the model to determine the population of icosahedra in mesoclusters at arbitrary temperature. Using simulation data to incorporate dynamics into the model, we predict relaxation behavior at temperatures inaccessible to conventional approaches. Our model predicts super-Arrhenius dynamics whose relaxation timemore » remains finite for non-zero temperature.« less

Microbial Community Structures and Dynamics in the O3/BAC Drinking Water Treatment Process

PubMed Central

Tian, Jian; Lu, Jun; Zhang, Yu; Li, Jian-Cheng; Sun, Li-Chen; Hu, Zhang-Li

2014-01-01

Effectiveness of drinking water treatment, in particular pathogen control during the water treatment process, is always a major public health concern. In this investigation, the application of PCR-DGGE technology to the analysis of microbial community structures and dynamics in the drinking water treatment process revealed several dominant microbial populations including: α-Proteobacteria, β-Proteobacteria, γ-Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria Firmicutes and Cyanobacteria. α-Proteobacteria and β-Proteobacteria were the dominant bacteria during the whole process. Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes were the dominant bacteria before and after treatment, respectively. Firmicutes showed season-dependent changes in population dynamics. Importantly, γ-Proteobacteria, which is a class of medically important bacteria, was well controlled by the O3/biological activated carbon (BAC) treatment, resulting in improved effluent water bio-safety. PMID:24937529

Patterns of population genetic variation in sympatric chiltoniid amphipods within a calcrete aquifer reveal a dynamic subterranean environment

PubMed Central

Bradford, T M; Adams, M; Guzik, M T; Humphreys, W F; Austin, A D; Cooper, S JB

2013-01-01

Calcrete aquifers from the Yilgarn region of arid central Western Australia contain an assemblage of obligate groundwater invertebrate species that are each endemic to single aquifers. Fine-scale phylogeographic and population genetic analyses of three sympatric and independently derived species of amphipod (Chiltoniidae) were carried out to determine whether there were common patterns of population genetic structure or evidence for past geographic isolation of populations within a single calcrete aquifer. Genetic diversity in amphipod mitochondrial DNA (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene) and allozymes were examined across a 3.5 km2 region of the Sturt Meadows calcrete, which contains a grid of 115 bore holes (=wells). Stygobiont amphipods were found to have high levels of mitochondrial haplotype diversity coupled with low nucleotide diversity. Mitochondrial phylogeographic structuring was found between haplogroups for one of the chiltoniid species, which also showed population structuring for nuclear markers. Signatures of population expansion in two of the three species, match previous findings for diving beetles at the same site, indicating that the system is dynamic. We propose isolation of populations in refugia within the calcrete, followed by expansion events, as the most likely source of intraspecific genetic diversity, due to changes in water level influencing gene flow across the calcrete. PMID:23549336

Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmieder, R.W.

The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the populationmore » will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.« less

Vulnerability of a killer whale social network to disease outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães, Paulo R., Jr.; de Menezes, Márcio Argollo; Baird, Robin W.; Lusseau, David; Guimarães, Paulo; Dos Reis, Sérgio F.

2007-10-01

Emerging infectious diseases are among the main threats to conservation of biological diversity. A crucial task facing epidemiologists is to predict the vulnerability of populations of endangered animals to disease outbreaks. In this context, the network structure of social interactions within animal populations may affect disease spreading. However, endangered animal populations are often small and to investigate the dynamics of small networks is a difficult task. Using network theory, we show that the social structure of an endangered population of mammal-eating killer whales is vulnerable to disease outbreaks. This feature was found to be a consequence of the combined effects of the topology and strength of social links among individuals. Our results uncover a serious challenge for conservation of the species and its ecosystem. In addition, this study shows that the network approach can be useful to study dynamical processes in very small networks.

Model structure of the stream salmonid simulator (S3)—A dynamic model for simulating growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Jones, Edward C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.; Hardy, Thomas B.

2018-04-06

Fisheries and water managers often use population models to aid in understanding the effect of alternative water management or restoration actions on anadromous fish populations. We developed the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to help resource managers evaluate the effect of management alternatives on juvenile salmonid populations. S3 is a deterministic stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily time series of discharge, water temperature, and usable habitat area or carrying capacity. The physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit, in turn, drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units.The purpose of this report is to outline the underlying general structure of the S3 model that is common among different applications of the model. We have developed applications of the S3 model for juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the lower Klamath River. Thus, this report is a companion to current application of the S3 model to the Trinity River (in review). The general S3 model structure provides a biological and physical framework for the salmonid freshwater life cycle. This framework captures important demographics of juvenile salmonids aimed at translating management alternatives into simulated population responses. Although the S3 model is built on this common framework, the model has been constructed to allow much flexibility in application of the model to specific river systems. The ability for practitioners to include system-specific information for the physical stream structure, survival, growth, and movement processes ensures that simulations provide results that are relevant to the questions asked about the population under study.

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

PubMed

Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

2018-02-03

For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

Aspiration dynamics in structured population acts as if in a well-mixed one.

PubMed

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Wang, Long

2015-01-26

Understanding the evolution of human interactive behaviors is important. Recent experimental results suggest that human cooperation in spatial structured population is not enhanced as predicted in previous works, when payoff-dependent imitation updating rules are used. This constraint opens up an avenue to shed light on how humans update their strategies in real life. Studies via simulations show that, instead of comparison rules, self-evaluation driven updating rules may explain why spatial structure does not alter the evolutionary outcome. Though inspiring, there is a lack of theoretical result to show the existence of such evolutionary updating rule. Here we study the aspiration dynamics, and show that it does not alter the evolutionary outcome in various population structures. Under weak selection, by analytical approximation, we find that the favored strategy in regular graphs is invariant. Further, we show that this is because the criterion under which a strategy is favored is the same as that of a well-mixed population. By simulation, we show that this holds for random networks. Although how humans update their strategies is an open question to be studied, our results provide a theoretical foundation of the updating rules that may capture the real human updating rules.

The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, R.; Liu, H.

2016-02-01

Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Coastal oceanography sets the pace of rocky intertidal community dynamics.

PubMed

Menge, B A; Lubchenco, J; Bracken, M E S; Chan, F; Foley, M M; Freidenburg, T L; Gaines, S D; Hudson, G; Krenz, C; Leslie, H; Menge, D N L; Russell, R; Webster, M S

2003-10-14

The structure of ecological communities reflects a tension among forces that alter populations. Marine ecologists previously emphasized control by locally operating forces (predation, competition, and disturbance), but newer studies suggest that inputs from large-scale oceanographically modulated subsidies (nutrients, particulates, and propagules) can strongly influence community structure and dynamics. On New Zealand rocky shores, the magnitude of such subsidies differs profoundly between contrasting oceanographic regimes. Community structure, and particularly the pace of community dynamics, differ dramatically between intermittent upwelling regimes compared with relatively persistent down-welling regimes. We suggest that subsidy rates are a key determinant of the intensity of species interactions, and thus of structure in marine systems, and perhaps also nonmarine communities.

Evolutionary dynamics on graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieberman, Erez; Hauert, Christoph; Nowak, Martin A.

2005-01-01

Evolutionary dynamics have been traditionally studied in the context of homogeneous or spatially extended populations. Here we generalize population structure by arranging individuals on a graph. Each vertex represents an individual. The weighted edges denote reproductive rates which govern how often individuals place offspring into adjacent vertices. The homogeneous population, described by the Moran process, is the special case of a fully connected graph with evenly weighted edges. Spatial structures are described by graphs where vertices are connected with their nearest neighbours. We also explore evolution on random and scale-free networks. We determine the fixation probability of mutants, and characterize those graphs for which fixation behaviour is identical to that of a homogeneous population. Furthermore, some graphs act as suppressors and others as amplifiers of selection. It is even possible to find graphs that guarantee the fixation of any advantageous mutant. We also study frequency-dependent selection and show that the outcome of evolutionary games can depend entirely on the structure of the underlying graph. Evolutionary graph theory has many fascinating applications ranging from ecology to multi-cellular organization and economics.

Spatial dynamics of invasion: the geometry of introduced species.

PubMed

Korniss, Gyorgy; Caraco, Thomas

2005-03-07

Many exotic species combine low probability of establishment at each introduction with rapid population growth once introduction does succeed. To analyse this phenomenon, we note that invaders often cluster spatially when rare, and consequently an introduced exotic's population dynamics should depend on locally structured interactions. Ecological theory for spatially structured invasion relies on deterministic approximations, and determinism does not address the observed uncertainty of the exotic-introduction process. We take a new approach to the population dynamics of invasion and, by extension, to the general question of invasibility in any spatial ecology. We apply the physical theory for nucleation of spatial systems to a lattice-based model of competition between plant species, a resident and an invader, and the analysis reaches conclusions that differ qualitatively from the standard ecological theories. Nucleation theory distinguishes between dynamics of single- and multi-cluster invasion. Low introduction rates and small system size produce single-cluster dynamics, where success or failure of introduction is inherently stochastic. Single-cluster invasion occurs only if the cluster reaches a critical size, typically preceded by a number of failed attempts. For this case, we identify the functional form of the probability distribution of time elapsing until invasion succeeds. Although multi-cluster invasion for sufficiently large systems exhibits spatial averaging and almost-deterministic dynamics of the global densities, an analytical approximation from nucleation theory, known as Avrami's law, describes our simulation results far better than standard ecological approximations.

Effects of Dynamical Evolution on Globular Clusters’ Internal Kinematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiongco, Maria; Vesperini, Enrico; Varri, Anna Lisa

2018-01-01

The synergy between recent photometric, spectroscopic, and astrometric studies is revealing that globular clusters deviate from the traditional picture of dynamically simple and single stellar population systems. Complex kinematical features such as velocity anisotropy and rotation, and the existence of multiple stellar populations are some of the key observational findings. My thesis work has aimed to build a theoretical framework to interpret these new observational results and to understand their link with a globular cluster’s dynamical history.I have focused on the study of the evolution of globular clusters' internal kinematics, as driven by two-body relaxation, and the interplay between internal angular momentum and the external Galactic tidal field. With a specifically-designed, large survey of direct N-body simulations, I have explored the three-dimensional structure of the velocity space of tidally-perturbed clusters, by characterizing their degree of anisotropy and their rotational properties. These studies have proved that a cluster's kinematical properties contain a distinct imprints of the cluster’s initial structural properties, dynamical history, and tidal environment. By relaxing a number of simplifying assumptions that are traditionally imposed, I have also showed how the interplay between a cluster's internal evolution and the interaction with the host galaxy can produce complex morphological and kinematical properties, such as a counter-rotating core and a twisting of the projected isodensity contours.Building on this fundamental understanding, I have then studied the dynamics of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters, with attention to the largely unexplored role of angular momentum. I have analyzed the evolution of clusters with stellar populations characterized by different initial structural and kinematical properties to determine how long these differences are preserved, and in what cases they could still be observable in present-day systems.This body of results provides essential guidance for a meaningful interpretation of the emerging dynamical complexity of globular clusters in the era of Gaia and other upcoming large spectroscopic surveys.

Neighbourhood reaction in the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Yang, Guoli; Zhang, Weiming; Xiu, Baoxin

2015-05-07

Combining evolutionary games with adaptive networks, an entangled model between strategy evolution and structure adaptation is researched in this paper. We consider a large population of cooperators C and defectors D placed in the networks, playing the repeated prisoner׳s dilemma (PD) games. Because of the conflicts between social welfare and personal rationality, both strategy and structure are allowed to change. In this paper, the dynamics of strategy originates form the partner imitation based on social learning and the dynamics of structure is driven by the active linking and neighbourhood reaction. Notably, the neighbourhood reaction is investigated considering the changes of interfaces between cooperators and defectors, where some neighbours may get away from the interface once the focal agent changes to different strategy. A rich landscape is demonstrated by changing various embedding parameters, which sheds light upon that reacting promptly to the shifted neighbour will promote the prevalence of cooperation. Our model encapsulates the dynamics of strategy, reaction and structure into the evolutionary games, which manifests some intriguing principles in the competition between two groups in natural populations, artificial systems and even human societies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metapopulation Structure and Dynamics of an Endangered Butterfly

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

the yearly variation of between-generation population change. We utilized weather data from the closest accessible NOAA weather station (43◦56′N/90◦49...patterns in the population dynamic, and tested for density-dependent growth and weather factors as potential explanatory factors of the yearly variation...followed a standard protocol including avoiding inclement weather con- ditions (Wilder 1999) and about 95% of the survey data were collected by a single

Evaluation of vibration limits and mitigation techniques for urban construction : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

Construction activities such as pile driving and : dynamic compaction of loose soils induce ground : and structure vibrations. Their effects may annoy : local populations, disturb sensitive equipment, or : reduce structures serviceability and dura...

Genetic isolation of a now extinct population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus)

PubMed Central

Nichols, Courtney; Herman, Jerry; Gaggiotti, Oscar E; Dobney, Keith M; Parsons, Kim; Hoelzel, A. Rus

2007-01-01

A number of dolphin species, though highly mobile, show genetic structure among parapatric and sometimes sympatric populations. However, little is known about the temporal patterns of population structure for these species. Here, we apply Bayesian inference and data from ancient DNA to assess the structure and dynamics of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in the coastal waters of the UK. We show that regional population structure in UK waters is consistent with earlier studies suggesting local habitat dependence for this species in the Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic. One genetically differentiated UK population went extinct at least 100 years ago and has not been replaced. The data indicate that this was a local extinction, and not a case of historical range shift or contraction. One possible interpretation is a declining metapopulation and conservation need for this species in the UK. PMID:17456457

And So It Grows: Using a Computer-Based Simulation of a Population Growth Model to Integrate Biology & Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Street, Garrett M.; Laubach, Timothy A.

2013-01-01

We provide a 5E structured-inquiry lesson so that students can learn more of the mathematics behind the logistic model of population biology. By using models and mathematics, students understand how population dynamics can be influenced by relatively simple changes in the environment.

Genome-wide analysis of allele frequency change in sunflower crop-wild hybrid populations evolving under natural conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hybridization is known to occur between cultivated and wild populations of numerous plant species. This represents a major mechanism by which a wild population’s genetic structure and evolutionary dynamics could be altered. Studying crop-derived alleles in wild populations is also relevant to assess...

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Age structure and cooperation in coevolutionary games on dynamic network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zilong; Hu, Zhenhua; Zhou, Xiaoping; Yi, Jingzhang

2015-04-01

Our proposed model imitates the growth of a population and describes the age structure and the level of cooperation in games on dynamic network with continuous changes of structure and topology. The removal of nodes and links caused by age-dependent attack, together with the nodes addition standing for the newborns of population, badly ruins Matthew effect in this coevolutionary process. Though the network is generated by growth and preferential attachment, it degenerates into random network and it is no longer heterogeneous. When the removal of nodes and links is equal to the addition of nodes and links, the size of dynamic network is maintained in steady-state, so is the low level of cooperation. Severe structure variation, homogeneous topology and continuous invasion of new defection jointly make dynamic network unsuitable for the survival of cooperator even when the probability with which the newborn players initially adopt the strategy cooperation is high, while things change slightly when the connections of newborn players are restricted. Fortunately, moderate interactions in a generation trigger an optimal recovering process to encourage cooperation. The model developed in this paper outlines an explanation of the cohesion changes in the development process of an organization. Some suggestions for cooperative behavior improvement are given in the end.

Application of network methods for understanding evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Fefferman, Nina H

2017-06-01

In populations occupying discrete habitat patches, gene flow between habitat patches may form an intricate population structure. In such structures, the evolutionary dynamics resulting from interaction of gene-flow patterns with other evolutionary forces may be exceedingly complex. Several models describing gene flow between discrete habitat patches have been presented in the population-genetics literature; however, these models have usually addressed relatively simple settings of habitable patches and have stopped short of providing general methodologies for addressing nontrivial gene-flow patterns. In the last decades, network theory - a branch of discrete mathematics concerned with complex interactions between discrete elements - has been applied to address several problems in population genetics by modelling gene flow between habitat patches using networks. Here, we present the idea and concepts of modelling complex gene flows in discrete habitats using networks. Our goal is to raise awareness to existing network theory applications in molecular ecology studies, as well as to outline the current and potential contribution of network methods to the understanding of evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats. We review the main branches of network theory that have been, or that we believe potentially could be, applied to population genetics and molecular ecology research. We address applications to theoretical modelling and to empirical population-genetic studies, and we highlight future directions for extending the integration of network science with molecular ecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Synchronisation and stability in river metapopulation networks.

PubMed

Yeakel, J D; Moore, J W; Guimarães, P R; de Aguiar, M A M

2014-03-01

Spatial structure in landscapes impacts population stability. Two linked components of stability have large consequences for persistence: first, statistical stability as the lack of temporal fluctuations; second, synchronisation as an aspect of dynamic stability, which erodes metapopulation rescue effects. Here, we determine the influence of river network structure on the stability of riverine metapopulations. We introduce an approach that converts river networks to metapopulation networks, and analytically show how fluctuation magnitude is influenced by interaction structure. We show that river metapopulation complexity (in terms of branching prevalence) has nonlinear dampening effects on population fluctuations, and can also buffer against synchronisation. We conclude by showing that river transects generally increase synchronisation, while the spatial scale of interaction has nonlinear effects on synchronised dynamics. Our results indicate that this dual stability - conferred by fluctuation and synchronisation dampening - emerges from interaction structure in rivers, and this may strongly influence the persistence of river metapopulations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Bacterial predator–prey dynamics in microscale patchy landscapes

PubMed Central

Rotem, Or; Jurkevitch, Edouard; Dekker, Cees

2016-01-01

Soil is a microenvironment with a fragmented (patchy) spatial structure in which many bacterial species interact. Here, we explore the interaction between the predatory bacterium Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus and its prey Escherichia coli in microfabricated landscapes. We ask how fragmentation influences the prey dynamics at the microscale and compare two landscape geometries: a patchy landscape and a continuous landscape. By following the dynamics of prey populations with high spatial and temporal resolution for many generations, we found that the variation in predation rates was twice as large in the patchy landscape and the dynamics was correlated over shorter length scales. We also found that while the prey population in the continuous landscape was almost entirely driven to extinction, a significant part of the prey population in the fragmented landscape persisted over time. We observed significant surface-associated growth, especially in the fragmented landscape and we surmise that this sub-population is more resistant to predation. Our results thus show that microscale fragmentation can significantly influence bacterial interactions. PMID:26865299

Tensor Analysis Reveals Distinct Population Structure that Parallels the Different Computational Roles of Areas M1 and V1

PubMed Central

Ryu, Stephen I.; Shenoy, Krishna V.; Cunningham, John P.; Churchland, Mark M.

2016-01-01

Cortical firing rates frequently display elaborate and heterogeneous temporal structure. One often wishes to compute quantitative summaries of such structure—a basic example is the frequency spectrum—and compare with model-based predictions. The advent of large-scale population recordings affords the opportunity to do so in new ways, with the hope of distinguishing between potential explanations for why responses vary with time. We introduce a method that assesses a basic but previously unexplored form of population-level structure: when data contain responses across multiple neurons, conditions, and times, they are naturally expressed as a third-order tensor. We examined tensor structure for multiple datasets from primary visual cortex (V1) and primary motor cortex (M1). All V1 datasets were ‘simplest’ (there were relatively few degrees of freedom) along the neuron mode, while all M1 datasets were simplest along the condition mode. These differences could not be inferred from surface-level response features. Formal considerations suggest why tensor structure might differ across modes. For idealized linear models, structure is simplest across the neuron mode when responses reflect external variables, and simplest across the condition mode when responses reflect population dynamics. This same pattern was present for existing models that seek to explain motor cortex responses. Critically, only dynamical models displayed tensor structure that agreed with the empirical M1 data. These results illustrate that tensor structure is a basic feature of the data. For M1 the tensor structure was compatible with only a subset of existing models. PMID:27814353

Vegetation dynamics

Treesearch

Sammy L. King; Terry J. Antrobus; Sarah Billups

2000-01-01

A disturbance can be defined as "any relatively discrete event in time that disrupts ecosystem, community, or population structure and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment" (Pickett and White 1985). Vegetation dynamics are a function of the temporal and spatial patterns of the disturbance regime. Natural disturbance regimes...

Contingency and statistical laws in replicate microbial closed ecosystems.

PubMed

Hekstra, Doeke R; Leibler, Stanislas

2012-05-25

Contingency, the persistent influence of past random events, pervades biology. To what extent, then, is each course of ecological or evolutionary dynamics unique, and to what extent are these dynamics subject to a common statistical structure? Addressing this question requires replicate measurements to search for emergent statistical laws. We establish a readily replicated microbial closed ecosystem (CES), sustaining its three species for years. We precisely measure the local population density of each species in many CES replicates, started from the same initial conditions and kept under constant light and temperature. The covariation among replicates of the three species densities acquires a stable structure, which could be decomposed into discrete eigenvectors, or "ecomodes." The largest ecomode dominates population density fluctuations around the replicate-average dynamics. These fluctuations follow simple power laws consistent with a geometric random walk. Thus, variability in ecological dynamics can be studied with CES replicates and described by simple statistical laws. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring Population Admixture Dynamics via Empirical and Simulated Genome-wide Distribution of Ancestral Chromosomal Segments

PubMed Central

Jin, Wenfei; Wang, Sijia; Wang, Haifeng; Jin, Li; Xu, Shuhua

2012-01-01

The processes of genetic admixture determine the haplotype structure and linkage disequilibrium patterns of the admixed population, which is important for medical and evolutionary studies. However, most previous studies do not consider the inherent complexity of admixture processes. Here we proposed two approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, and we demonstrated, by analyzing genome-wide empirical and simulated data, that the approach based on the distribution of chromosomal segments of distinct ancestry (CSDAs) was more powerful than that based on the distribution of individual ancestry proportions. Analysis of 1,890 African Americans showed that a continuous gene flow model, in which the African American population continuously received gene flow from European populations over about 14 generations, best explained the admixture dynamics of African Americans among several putative models. Interestingly, we observed that some African Americans had much more European ancestry than the simulated samples, indicating substructures of local ancestries in African Americans that could have been caused by individuals from some particular lineages having repeatedly admixed with people of European ancestry. In contrast, the admixture dynamics of Mexicans could be explained by a gradual admixture model in which the Mexican population continuously received gene flow from both European and Amerindian populations over about 24 generations. Our results also indicated that recent gene flows from Sub-Saharan Africans have contributed to the gene pool of Middle Eastern populations such as Mozabite, Bedouin, and Palestinian. In summary, this study not only provides approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, but also advances our understanding on population history of African Americans, Mexicans, and Middle Eastern populations. PMID:23103229

The lawyer, legal education and population policies in Africa.

PubMed

Uche, U U

1976-09-01

This paper analyses the relationship of the lawyer and legal education to policies of population dynamics in Africa. Lawyers have been reluctant to enter effectively into population studies and consequently are peripheral in influencing the formulation and implementation of population policies in Africa. This "unfortunate" situation reflects the varying attitudes of the lawyer to some aspects of population dynamics. The concept of Human Rights is examined as offering a suitable avenue for increased participation of lawyers into the formulation of population policies. The paper examines the structure of laws affecting parameters of population dynamics in Kenya and the extent to which Kenya's legal structure, as in some other African countries, is pegged to the legal system of their colonial governments. This factor, reinforced by traditional practices and socioeconomic factors, frustrate lawyers' attitudes. These attitudes can be changed by making population law an integral part of legal educational curricula. Breakdowns are given of lawyer's attitudes to fertility and abortion under specified conditions and descriptions of various case studies in Kenya, Sweden, Prague, Czechoslovakia, and England involving abortion laws. Contraception laws in Africa and health codes are detailed in order to trace how people's attitudes tend to frustrate the law, especially concerning veneral diseases. Laws concerning drugs, and especially spatial distribution (urban and rural migration) are described to show how lawyers can become involved in population law. The author's recommended law curriculum is given which emphasizes introductory preparation in the sociological, economic, demographic, health and sex education dimensions of the subject of population law in addition to study of all statutory provisions, orders, regulations, by laws and judicial decisions that have any bearing on population matters. Categories to be studied should include fertility regulation, family law, children and child welfare, criminal offence and penology, public welfare, public health, education, property and economic factors.

Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

2015-06-01

The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

Insights into Watson-Crick/Hoogsteen breathing dynamics and damage repair from the solution structure and dynamic ensemble of DNA duplexes containing m1A.

PubMed

Sathyamoorthy, Bharathwaj; Shi, Honglue; Zhou, Huiqing; Xue, Yi; Rangadurai, Atul; Merriman, Dawn K; Al-Hashimi, Hashim M

2017-05-19

In the canonical DNA double helix, Watson-Crick (WC) base pairs (bps) exist in dynamic equilibrium with sparsely populated (∼0.02-0.4%) and short-lived (lifetimes ∼0.2-2.5 ms) Hoogsteen (HG) bps. To gain insights into transient HG bps, we used solution-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, including measurements of residual dipolar couplings and molecular dynamics simulations, to examine how a single HG bp trapped using the N1-methylated adenine (m1A) lesion affects the structural and dynamic properties of two duplexes. The solution structure and dynamic ensembles of the duplexes reveals that in both cases, m1A forms a m1A•T HG bp, which is accompanied by local and global structural and dynamic perturbations in the double helix. These include a bias toward the BI backbone conformation; sugar repuckering, major-groove directed kinking (∼9°); and local melting of neighboring WC bps. These results provide atomic insights into WC/HG breathing dynamics in unmodified DNA duplexes as well as identify structural and dynamic signatures that could play roles in m1A recognition and repair. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Insights into Watson–Crick/Hoogsteen breathing dynamics and damage repair from the solution structure and dynamic ensemble of DNA duplexes containing m1A

PubMed Central

Sathyamoorthy, Bharathwaj; Shi, Honglue; Zhou, Huiqing; Xue, Yi; Rangadurai, Atul; Merriman, Dawn K.

2017-01-01

Abstract In the canonical DNA double helix, Watson–Crick (WC) base pairs (bps) exist in dynamic equilibrium with sparsely populated (∼0.02–0.4%) and short-lived (lifetimes ∼0.2–2.5 ms) Hoogsteen (HG) bps. To gain insights into transient HG bps, we used solution-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, including measurements of residual dipolar couplings and molecular dynamics simulations, to examine how a single HG bp trapped using the N1-methylated adenine (m1A) lesion affects the structural and dynamic properties of two duplexes. The solution structure and dynamic ensembles of the duplexes reveals that in both cases, m1A forms a m1A•T HG bp, which is accompanied by local and global structural and dynamic perturbations in the double helix. These include a bias toward the BI backbone conformation; sugar repuckering, major-groove directed kinking (∼9°); and local melting of neighboring WC bps. These results provide atomic insights into WC/HG breathing dynamics in unmodified DNA duplexes as well as identify structural and dynamic signatures that could play roles in m1A recognition and repair. PMID:28369571

Statistical characteristics of dynamics for population migration driven by the economic interests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Zhao, Ning; Hao, Rui

2016-06-01

Population migration typically occurs under some constraints, which can deeply affect the structure of a society and some other related aspects. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the characteristics of population migration. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook indicate that the regional gross domestic product per capita relates to the population size via a linear or power-law relation. In addition, the distribution of population migration sizes or relative migration strength introduced here is dominated by a shifted power-law relation. To reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions, a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by fewer employment opportunities at the destination, considering the migration cost as a function of the migration distance. The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the relative migration strength is governed by a shifted power-law relation, and that the distribution of migration distances is dominated by a truncated power-law relation. These results suggest the use of a power-law to fit a distribution may be not always suitable. Additionally, from the modeling framework, one can infer that it is the randomness and determinacy that jointly create the scaling characteristics of the distributions. The calculation also demonstrates that the network formed by active nodes, representing the immigration and emigration regions, usually evolves from an ordered state with a non-uniform structure to a disordered state with a uniform structure, which is evidenced by the increasing structural entropy.

Habitat continuity and stepping-stone oceanographic distances explain population genetic connectivity of the brown alga Cystoseira amentacea.

PubMed

Buonomo, Roberto; Assis, Jorge; Fernandes, Francisco; Engelen, Aschwin H; Airoldi, Laura; Serrão, Ester A

2017-02-01

Effective predictive and management approaches for species occurring in a metapopulation structure require good understanding of interpopulation connectivity. In this study, we ask whether population genetic structure of marine species with fragmented distributions can be predicted by stepping-stone oceanographic transport and habitat continuity, using as model an ecosystem-structuring brown alga, Cystoseira amentacea var. stricta. To answer this question, we analysed the genetic structure and estimated the connectivity of populations along discontinuous rocky habitat patches in southern Italy, using microsatellite markers at multiple scales. In addition, we modelled the effect of rocky habitat continuity and ocean circulation on gene flow by simulating Lagrangian particle dispersal based on ocean surface currents allowing multigenerational stepping-stone dynamics. Populations were highly differentiated, at scales from few metres up to thousands of kilometres. The best possible model fit to explain the genetic results combined current direction, rocky habitat extension and distance along the coast among rocky sites. We conclude that a combination of variable suitable habitat and oceanographic transport is a useful predictor of genetic structure. This relationship provides insight into the mechanisms of dispersal and the role of life-history traits. Our results highlight the importance of spatially explicit modelling of stepping-stone dynamics and oceanographic directional transport coupled with habitat suitability, to better describe and predict marine population structure and differentiation. This study also suggests the appropriate spatial scales for the conservation, restoration and management of species that are increasingly affected by habitat modifications. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A method for the direct measurement of electronic site populations in a molecular aggregate using two-dimensional electronic-vibrational spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Nicholas H. C.; Dong, Hui; Oliver, Thomas A. A.

2015-09-28

Two dimensional electronic spectroscopy has proven to be a valuable experimental technique to reveal electronic excitation dynamics in photosynthetic pigment-protein complexes, nanoscale semiconductors, organic photovoltaic materials, and many other types of systems. It does not, however, provide direct information concerning the spatial structure and dynamics of excitons. 2D infrared spectroscopy has become a widely used tool for studying structural dynamics but is incapable of directly providing information concerning electronic excited states. 2D electronic-vibrational (2DEV) spectroscopy provides a link between these domains, directly connecting the electronic excitation with the vibrational structure of the system under study. In this work, we derivemore » response functions for the 2DEV spectrum of a molecular dimer and propose a method by which 2DEV spectra could be used to directly measure the electronic site populations as a function of time following the initial electronic excitation. We present results from the response function simulations which show that our proposed approach is substantially valid. This method provides, to our knowledge, the first direct experimental method for measuring the electronic excited state dynamics in the spatial domain, on the molecular scale.« less

A method for the direct measurement of electronic site populations in a molecular aggregate using two-dimensional electronic-vibrational spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Nicholas H. C.; Dong, Hui; Oliver, Thomas A. A.

2015-09-28

Two dimensional electronic spectroscopy has proved to be a valuable experimental technique to reveal electronic excitation dynamics in photosynthetic pigment-protein complexes, nanoscale semiconductors, organic photovoltaic materials, and many other types of systems. It does not, however, provide direct information concerning the spatial structure and dynamics of excitons. 2D infrared spectroscopy has become a widely used tool for studying structural dynamics but is incapable of directly providing information concerning electronic excited states. 2D electronic-vibrational (2DEV) spectroscopy provides a link between these domains, directly connecting the electronic excitation with the vibrational structure of the system under study. In this work, we derivemore » response functions for the 2DEV spectrum of a molecular dimer and propose a method by which 2DEV spectra could be used to directly measure the electronic site populations as a function of time following the initial electronic excitation. We present results from the response function simulations which show that our proposed approach is substantially valid. This method provides, to our knowledge, the first direct experimental method for measuring the electronic excited state dynamics in the spatial domain, on the molecular scale.« less

A method for the direct measurement of electronic site populations in a molecular aggregate using two-dimensional electronic-vibrational spectroscopy.

PubMed

Lewis, Nicholas H C; Dong, Hui; Oliver, Thomas A A; Fleming, Graham R

2015-09-28

Two dimensional electronic spectroscopy has proved to be a valuable experimental technique to reveal electronic excitation dynamics in photosynthetic pigment-protein complexes, nanoscale semiconductors, organic photovoltaic materials, and many other types of systems. It does not, however, provide direct information concerning the spatial structure and dynamics of excitons. 2D infrared spectroscopy has become a widely used tool for studying structural dynamics but is incapable of directly providing information concerning electronic excited states. 2D electronic-vibrational (2DEV) spectroscopy provides a link between these domains, directly connecting the electronic excitation with the vibrational structure of the system under study. In this work, we derive response functions for the 2DEV spectrum of a molecular dimer and propose a method by which 2DEV spectra could be used to directly measure the electronic site populations as a function of time following the initial electronic excitation. We present results from the response function simulations which show that our proposed approach is substantially valid. This method provides, to our knowledge, the first direct experimental method for measuring the electronic excited state dynamics in the spatial domain, on the molecular scale.

Population dynamics and evaluation of alternative management strategies for nonnative Lake Trout in Priest Lake, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ng, Elizabeth L.; Fredericks, Jim P.; Quist, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush have been introduced widely throughout the western USA to enhance recreational fisheries, but high predatory demand can create challenges for management of yield and trophy fisheries alike. Lake Trout were introduced to Priest Lake, Idaho, during the 1920s, but few fishery-independent data are available to guide current or future management actions. We collected fishery-independent data to describe population dynamics and evaluate potential management scenarios using an age-structured population model. Lake Trout in Priest Lake were characterized by fast growth at young ages, which resulted in young age at maturity. However, adult growth rates and body condition were lower than for other Lake Trout populations. High rates of skipped spawning (>50%) were also observed. Model projections indicated that the population was growing (λ = 1.03). Eradication could be achieved by increasing annual mortality to 0.32, approximately twice the current rate. A protected slot length limit could increase population length-structure, but few fish grew fast enough to exit the slot. In contrast, a juvenile removal scenario targeting age-2 to age-5 Lake Trout maintained short-term harvest of trophy-length individuals while reducing overall population abundance.

The Further Evolution of Cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axelrod, Robert; Dion, Douglas

1988-12-01

Axelrod's model of the evolution of cooperation was based on the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Empirical work following this approach has helped establish the prevalence of cooperation based on reciprocity. Theoretical work has led to a deeper understanding of the role of other factors in the evolution of cooperation: the number of players, the range of possible choices, variation in the payoff structure, noise, the shadow of the future, population dynamics, and population structure.

Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate.

PubMed Central

Lima, M.; Stenseth, N. C.; Yoccoz, N. G.; Jaksic, F. M.

2001-01-01

Here we present, to the authors' knowledge for the very first time for a small marsupial, a thorough analysis of the demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in western South America. We test the relative importance of feedback structure and climatic factors (rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index) in explaining the temporal variation in the demography of the mouse opossum. The demographic information was incorporated into a stage-structured population dynamics model and the model's predictions were compared with observed patterns. The mouse opossum's capture rates showed seasonal (within-year) and between-year variability, with individuals having higher capture rates during late summer and autumn and lower capture rates during winter and spring. There was also a strong between-year effect on capture probabilities. The reproductive (the fraction of reproductively active individuals) and recruitment rates showed a clear seasonal and a between-year pattern of variation with the peak of reproductive activity occuring during winter and early spring. In addition, the fraction of reproductive individuals was positively related to annual rainfall, while population density and annual rainfall positively influenced the recruitment rate. The survival rates were negatively related to annual rainfall. The average finite population growth rate during the study period was estimated to be 1.011 +/- 0.0019 from capture-recapture estimates. While the annual growth rate estimated from the seasonal linear matrix models was 1.026, the subadult and adult survival and maturation rates represent between 54% (winter) and 81% (summer) of the impact on the annual growth rate. PMID:11571053

A diffusion-based approach to stochastic individual growth and energy budget, with consequences to life-history optimization and population dynamics.

PubMed

Filin, I

2009-06-01

Using diffusion processes, I model stochastic individual growth, given exogenous hazards and starvation risk. By maximizing survival to final size, optimal life histories (e.g. switching size for habitat/dietary shift) are determined by two ratios: mean growth rate over growth variance (diffusion coefficient) and mortality rate over mean growth rate; all are size dependent. For example, switching size decreases with either ratio, if both are positive. I provide examples and compare with previous work on risk-sensitive foraging and the energy-predation trade-off. I then decompose individual size into reversibly and irreversibly growing components, e.g. reserves and structure. I provide a general expression for optimal structural growth, when reserves grow stochastically. I conclude that increased growth variance of reserves delays structural growth (raises threshold size for its commencement) but may eventually lead to larger structures. The effect depends on whether the structural trait is related to foraging or defence. Implications for population dynamics are discussed.

Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

2008-01-01

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

Species differentiation on a dynamic landscape: shifts in metapopulation genetic structure using the chronology of the Hawaiian Archipelago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roderick, George K.; Croucher, Peter J.P.; Vandergast, Amy G.; Gillespie, Rosemary G.

2012-01-01

Species formation during adaptive radiation often occurs in the context of a changing environment. The establishment and arrangement of populations, in space and time, sets up ecological and genetic processes that dictate the rate and pattern of differentiation. Here, we focus on how a dynamic habitat can affect genetic structure, and ultimately, differentiation among populations. We make use of the chronology and geographical history provided by the Hawaiian archipelago to examine the initial stages of population establishment and genetic divergence. We use data from a set of 6 spider lineages that differ in habitat affinities, some preferring low elevation habitats with a longer history of connection, others being more specialized for high elevation and/or wet forest, some with more general habitat affinities. We show that habitat preferences associated with lineages are important in ecological and genetic structuring. Lineages that have more restricted habitat preferences are subject to repeated episodes of isolation and fragmentation as a result of lava flows and vegetation succession. The initial dynamic set up by the landscape translates over time into discrete lineages. Further work is needed to understand how genetic changes interact with a changing set of ecological interactions amongst a shifting mosaic of landscapes to achieve species formation.

Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality

PubMed Central

Volz, Erik M.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the coalescent effective population size Ne can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between Ne and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of Ne such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics. PMID:22042576

Evolutionary dynamics of incubation periods

PubMed Central

Ottino-Loffler, Bertrand; Scott, Jacob G

2017-01-01

The incubation period for typhoid, polio, measles, leukemia and many other diseases follows a right-skewed, approximately lognormal distribution. Although this pattern was discovered more than sixty years ago, it remains an open question to explain its ubiquity. Here, we propose an explanation based on evolutionary dynamics on graphs. For simple models of a mutant or pathogen invading a network-structured population of healthy cells, we show that skewed distributions of incubation periods emerge for a wide range of assumptions about invader fitness, competition dynamics, and network structure. The skewness stems from stochastic mechanisms associated with two classic problems in probability theory: the coupon collector and the random walk. Unlike previous explanations that rely crucially on heterogeneity, our results hold even for homogeneous populations. Thus, we predict that two equally healthy individuals subjected to equal doses of equally pathogenic agents may, by chance alone, show remarkably different time courses of disease. PMID:29266000

Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenfell, B. T.; Bjørnstad, O. N.; Kappey, J.

2001-12-01

Spatio-temporal travelling waves are striking manifestations of predator-prey and host-parasite dynamics. However, few systems are well enough documented both to detect repeated waves and to explain their interaction with spatio-temporal variations in population structure and demography. Here, we demonstrate recurrent epidemic travelling waves in an exhaustive spatio-temporal data set for measles in England and Wales. We use wavelet phase analysis, which allows for dynamical non-stationarity-a complication in interpreting spatio-temporal patterns in these and many other ecological time series. In the pre-vaccination era, conspicuous hierarchical waves of infection moved regionally from large cities to small towns; the introduction of measles vaccination restricted but did not eliminate this hierarchical contagion. A mechanistic stochastic model suggests a dynamical explanation for the waves-spread via infective `sparks' from large `core' cities to smaller `satellite' towns. Thus, the spatial hierarchy of host population structure is a prerequisite for these infection waves.

Evolutionary dynamics of incubation periods.

PubMed

Ottino-Loffler, Bertrand; Scott, Jacob G; Strogatz, Steven H

2017-12-21

The incubation period for typhoid, polio, measles, leukemia and many other diseases follows a right-skewed, approximately lognormal distribution. Although this pattern was discovered more than sixty years ago, it remains an open question to explain its ubiquity. Here, we propose an explanation based on evolutionary dynamics on graphs. For simple models of a mutant or pathogen invading a network-structured population of healthy cells, we show that skewed distributions of incubation periods emerge for a wide range of assumptions about invader fitness, competition dynamics, and network structure. The skewness stems from stochastic mechanisms associated with two classic problems in probability theory: the coupon collector and the random walk. Unlike previous explanations that rely crucially on heterogeneity, our results hold even for homogeneous populations. Thus, we predict that two equally healthy individuals subjected to equal doses of equally pathogenic agents may, by chance alone, show remarkably different time courses of disease.

Self-organization in Balanced State Networks by STDP and Homeostatic Plasticity

PubMed Central

Effenberger, Felix; Jost, Jürgen; Levina, Anna

2015-01-01

Structural inhomogeneities in synaptic efficacies have a strong impact on population response dynamics of cortical networks and are believed to play an important role in their functioning. However, little is known about how such inhomogeneities could evolve by means of synaptic plasticity. Here we present an adaptive model of a balanced neuronal network that combines two different types of plasticity, STDP and synaptic scaling. The plasticity rules yield both long-tailed distributions of synaptic weights and firing rates. Simultaneously, a highly connected subnetwork of driver neurons with strong synapses emerges. Coincident spiking activity of several driver cells can evoke population bursts and driver cells have similar dynamical properties as leader neurons found experimentally. Our model allows us to observe the delicate interplay between structural and dynamical properties of the emergent inhomogeneities. It is simple, robust to parameter changes and able to explain a multitude of different experimental findings in one basic network. PMID:26335425

Dynamics of a spin-boson model with structured spectral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurt, Arzu; Eryigit, Resul

2018-05-01

We report the results of a study of the dynamics of a two-state system coupled to an environment with peaked spectral density. An exact analytical expression for the bath correlation function is obtained. Validity range of various approximations to the correlation function for calculating the population difference of the system is discussed as function of tunneling splitting, oscillator frequency, coupling constant, damping rate and the temperature of the bath. An exact expression for the population difference, for a limited range of parameters, is derived.

A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Jason M.; Wilberg, Michael J.; Adams, Jean V.; Jones, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The control of invasive sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.

Dynamic changes in the population structure of Escherichia coli in the Yeongsan River basin of South Korea.

PubMed

Jang, Jeonghwan; Di, Doris Y W; Han, Dukki; Unno, Tatsuya; Lee, Jeom-Ho; Sadowsky, Michael J; Hur, Hor-Gil

2015-11-01

Although Escherichia coli has been used as an indicator to examine fecal contamination of aquatic environment, it also has been reported to become naturalized to secondary habitats, including soil, water and beach sand. A total of 2880 E. coli isolates obtained from surface water and sediment samples from the Yeongsan River in 2013 were genotyped by using the horizontal fluorophore-enhanced rep-PCR DNA fingerprinting technique. Although different E. coli genotypic groups were observed between surface water and sediments in the dry season, they were mingled and undifferentiated from each other in the rainy season. This indicates that there are frequent sediment resuspension events in the river basin. Moreover, the genotypic composition of the E. coli population in the Yeongsan River basin changes over months and years, implying that genotypic structure of E. coli populations dynamically fluctuates in the river environment. Consequently, our data suggests that the use of E. coli libraries for fecal source tracking needs to be reassessed to account for the changing structure of riverine E. coli populations. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Diet shifts and population dynamics of estuarine foraminifera during ecosystem recovery after experimentally induced hypoxia crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouwer, G. M.; Duijnstee, I. A. P.; Hazeleger, J. H.; Rossi, F.; Lourens, L. J.; Middelburg, J. J.; Wolthers, M.

2016-03-01

This study shows foraminiferal dynamics after experimentally induced hypoxia within the wider context of ecosystem recovery. 13C-labeled bicarbonate and glucose were added to the sediments to examine foraminiferal diet shifts during ecosystem recovery and test-size measurements were used to deduce population dynamics. Hypoxia-treated and undisturbed patches were compared to distinguish natural (seasonal) fluctuations from hypoxia-induced responses. The effect of timing of disturbance and duration of recovery were investigated. The foraminiferal diets and population dynamics showed higher fluctuations in the recovering patches compared to the controls. The foraminiferal diet and population structure of Haynesina germanica and Ammonia beccarii responded differentially and generally inversely to progressive stages of ecosystem recovery. Tracer inferred diet estimates in April and June and the two distinctly visible cohorts in the test-size distribution, discussed to reflect reproduction in June, strongly suggest that the ample availability of diatoms during the first month of ecosystem recovery after the winter hypoxia was likely profitable to A. beccarii. Enhanced reproduction itself was strongly linked to the subsequent dietary shift to bacteria. The distribution of the test dimensions of H. germanica indicated that this species had less fluctuation in population structure during ecosystem recovery but possibly reproduced in response to the induced winter hypoxia. Bacteria seemed to consistently contribute more to the diet of H. germanica than diatoms. For the diet and test-size distribution of both species, the timing of disturbance seemed to have a higher impact than the duration of the subsequent recovery period.

Evolution of the stellar mass function in multiple-population globular clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vesperini, Enrico; Hong, Jongsuk; Webb, Jeremy J.; D'Antona, Franca; D'Ercole, Annibale

2018-05-01

We present the results of a survey of N-body simulations aimed at studying the effects of the long-term dynamical evolution on the stellar mass function (MF) of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. Our simulations show that if first-(1G) and second-generation (2G) stars have the same initial MF (IMF), the global MFs of the two populations are affected similarly by dynamical evolution and no significant differences between the 1G and 2G MFs arise during the cluster's evolution. If the two populations have different IMFs, dynamical effects do not completely erase memory of the initial differences. Should observations find differences between the global 1G and 2G MFs, these would reveal the fingerprints of differences in their IMFs. Irrespective of whether the 1G and 2G populations have the same global IMF or not, dynamical effects can produce differences between the local (measured at various distances from the cluster centre) 1G and 2G MFs; these differences are a manifestation of the process of mass segregation in populations with different initial structural properties. In dynamically old and spatially mixed clusters, however, differences between the local 1G and 2G MFs can reveal differences between the 1G and 2G global MFs. In general, for clusters with any dynamical age, large differences between the local 1G and 2G MFs are more likely to be associated with differences in the global MF. Our study also reveals a dependence of the spatial mixing rate on the stellar mass, another dynamical consequence of the multiscale nature of multiple-population clusters.

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

1999-01-01

The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

[Dynamics of the population structure of the Escherichia coli recombinant strain during continuous culture].

PubMed

Popova, L Iu; Lutskaia, N I; Bogucharov, A A; Bril'kov, A V; Pechurkin, N S

1992-01-01

The populational structure of the Escherichia coli strain Z905 containing the recombinant plasmid with the phenotype AprLux+ was studied in chemostat. It was shown that the stability of the ratio of plasmid containing cells and cells without plasmids depends in the first place on the presence of the selective factor (ampicillin) in the medium and on the sources of carbon and energy limiting growth.

The Social Origins of Networks and Diffusion.

PubMed

Centola, Damon

2015-03-01

Recent research on social contagion has demonstrated significant effects of network topology on the dynamics of diffusion. However, network topologies are not given a priori. Rather, they are patterns of relations that emerge from individual and structural features of society, such as population composition, group heterogeneity, homophily, and social consolidation. Following Blau and Schwartz, the author develops a model of social network formation that explores how social and structural constraints on tie formation generate emergent social topologies and then explores the effectiveness of these social networks for the dynamics of social diffusion. Results show that, at one extreme, high levels of consolidation can create highly balkanized communities with poor integration of shared norms and practices. As suggested by Blau and Schwartz, reducing consolidation creates more crosscutting circles and significantly improves the dynamics of social diffusion across the population. However, the author finds that further reducing consolidation creates highly intersecting social networks that fail to support the widespread diffusion of norms and practices, indicating that successful social diffusion can depend on moderate to high levels of structural consolidation.

Dynamics of Legionella spp. and bacterial populations during the proliferation of L. pneumophila in a cooling tower facility.

PubMed

Wéry, Nathalie; Bru-Adan, Valérie; Minervini, Céline; Delgénes, Jean-Philippe; Garrelly, Laurent; Godon, Jean-Jacques

2008-05-01

The dynamics of Legionella spp. and of dominant bacteria were investigated in water from a cooling tower plant over a 9-month period which included several weeks when Legionella pneumophila proliferated. The structural diversity of both the bacteria and the Legionella spp. was monitored by a fingerprint technique, single-strand conformation polymorphism, and Legionella spp. and L. pneumophila were quantified by real-time quantitative PCR. The structure of the bacterial community did not change over time, but it was perturbed periodically by chemical treatment or biofilm detachment. In contrast, the structure of the Legionella sp. population changed in different periods, its dynamics at times showing stability but also a rapid major shift during the proliferation of L. pneumophila in July. The dynamics of the Legionella spp. and of dominant bacteria were not correlated. In particular, no change in the bacterial community structure was observed during the proliferation of L. pneumophila. Legionella spp. present in the cooling tower system were identified by cloning and sequencing of 16S rRNA genes. A high diversity of Legionella spp. was observed before proliferation, including L. lytica, L. fallonii, and other Legionella-like amoebal pathogen types, along with as-yet-undescribed species. During the proliferation of L. pneumophila, Legionella sp. diversity decreased significantly, L. fallonii and L. pneumophila being the main species recovered.

Dynamics of Legionella spp. and Bacterial Populations during the Proliferation of L. pneumophila in a Cooling Tower Facility▿

PubMed Central

Wéry, Nathalie; Bru-Adan, Valérie; Minervini, Céline; Delgénes, Jean-Philippe; Garrelly, Laurent; Godon, Jean-Jacques

2008-01-01

The dynamics of Legionella spp. and of dominant bacteria were investigated in water from a cooling tower plant over a 9-month period which included several weeks when Legionella pneumophila proliferated. The structural diversity of both the bacteria and the Legionella spp. was monitored by a fingerprint technique, single-strand conformation polymorphism, and Legionella spp. and L. pneumophila were quantified by real-time quantitative PCR. The structure of the bacterial community did not change over time, but it was perturbed periodically by chemical treatment or biofilm detachment. In contrast, the structure of the Legionella sp. population changed in different periods, its dynamics at times showing stability but also a rapid major shift during the proliferation of L. pneumophila in July. The dynamics of the Legionella spp. and of dominant bacteria were not correlated. In particular, no change in the bacterial community structure was observed during the proliferation of L. pneumophila. Legionella spp. present in the cooling tower system were identified by cloning and sequencing of 16S rRNA genes. A high diversity of Legionella spp. was observed before proliferation, including L. lytica, L. fallonii, and other Legionella-like amoebal pathogen types, along with as-yet-undescribed species. During the proliferation of L. pneumophila, Legionella sp. diversity decreased significantly, L. fallonii and L. pneumophila being the main species recovered. PMID:18390683

Effects of fir sawyer beetle on spatial structure of Siberian fir stands

Treesearch

Vladimir L. Gavrikov; Valentina P. Vetrova

1991-01-01

Insects not only use plants for food and habitat; they also change plant populations by influencing their structure and dynamics. This influence is evidenced in the alteration of the spatial structure of a stand. The fir sawyer, Monochamus urussovi Fisch. (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), is the most abundant xylophagous insect injuring siberian fir,...

Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

PubMed

Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

2013-01-01

Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure.

PubMed

Watts, Alexander G; Schlichting, Peter E; Billerman, Shawn M; Jesmer, Brett R; Micheletti, Steven; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Funk, W Chris; Hapeman, Paul; Muths, Erin; Murphy, Melanie A

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

Allee’s dynamics and bifurcation structures in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, Abdel-Kaddous; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

2018-03-01

The interest and the relevance of the study of the population dynamics and the extinction phenomenon are our main motivation to investigate the induction of Allee Effect in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions. The adjustment or correction factor of rational type introduced allows us to analyze simultaneously strong and weak Allee’s functions and functions with no Allee effect, whose classification is dependent on the stability of the fixed point x = 0. This classification is founded on the concepts of strong and weak Allee’s effects to the population growth rates associated. The transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, is verified with the evolution of the rarefaction critical density or Allee’s limit. The existence of cusp points on a fold bifurcation curve is related to this phenomenon of transition on Allee’s dynamics. Moreover, the “foliated” structure of the parameter plane considered is also explained, with respect to the evolution of the Allee limit. The bifurcation analysis is based on the configurations of fold and flip bifurcation curves. The chaotic semistability and the nonadmissibility bifurcation curves are proposed to this family of 1D maps, which allow us to define and characterize the corresponding Allee effect region.

Social and spatial effects on genetic variation between foraging flocks in a wild bird population.

PubMed

Radersma, Reinder; Garroway, Colin J; Santure, Anna W; de Cauwer, Isabelle; Farine, Damien R; Slate, Jon; Sheldon, Ben C

2017-10-01

Social interactions are rarely random. In some instances, animals exhibit homophily or heterophily, the tendency to interact with similar or dissimilar conspecifics, respectively. Genetic homophily and heterophily influence the evolutionary dynamics of populations, because they potentially affect sexual and social selection. Here, we investigate the link between social interactions and allele frequencies in foraging flocks of great tits (Parus major) over three consecutive years. We constructed co-occurrence networks which explicitly described the splitting and merging of 85,602 flocks through time (fission-fusion dynamics), at 60 feeding sites. Of the 1,711 birds in those flocks, we genotyped 962 individuals at 4,701 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). By combining genomewide genotyping with repeated field observations of the same individuals, we were able to investigate links between social structure and allele frequencies at a much finer scale than was previously possible. We explicitly accounted for potential spatial effects underlying genetic structure at the population level. We modelled social structure and spatial configuration of great tit fission-fusion dynamics with eigenvector maps. Variance partitioning revealed that allele frequencies were strongly affected by group fidelity (explaining 27%-45% of variance) as individuals tended to maintain associations with the same conspecifics. These conspecifics were genetically more dissimilar than expected, shown by genomewide heterophily for pure social (i.e., space-independent) grouping preferences. Genomewide homophily was linked to spatial configuration, indicating spatial segregation of genotypes. We did not find evidence for homophily or heterophily for putative socially relevant candidate genes or any other SNP markers. Together, these results demonstrate the importance of distinguishing social and spatial processes in determining population structure. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

GENETIC STRUCTURE OF TRIATOMA INFESTANS POPULATIONS IN RURAL COMMUNITIES OF SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, NORTHERN ARGENTINA

PubMed Central

Marcet, PL; Mora, MS; Cutrera, AP; Jones, L; Gürtler, RE; Kitron, U; Dotson, EM

2008-01-01

To gain an understanding of the genetic structure and dispersal dynamics of T. infestans populations, we analyzed the multilocus genotype of 10 microsatellite loci for 352 T. infestans collected in 21 houses of 11 rural communities in October 2002. Genetic structure was analyzed at the community and house compound levels. Analysis revealed that vector control actions affected the genetic structure of T. infestans populations. Bug populations from communities under sustained vector control (core area) were highly structured and genetic differentiation between neighboring house compounds was significant. In contrast, bug populations from communities with sporadic vector control actions were more homogeneous and lacked defined genetic clusters. Genetic differentiation between population pairs did not fit a model of isolation by distance at the microgeographical level. Evidence consistent with flight or walking bug dispersal was detected within and among communities, dispersal was more female-biased in the core area and results suggested that houses received immigrants from more than one source. Putative sources and mechanisms of re-infestation are described. These data may be use to design improved vector control strategies PMID:18773972

Interlinkages between bacterial populations dynamics and the operational parameters in a moving bed membrane bioreactor treating urban sewage.

PubMed

Reboleiro-Rivas, P; Martín-Pascual, J; Morillo, J A; Juárez-Jiménez, B; Poyatos, J M; Rodelas, B; González-López, J

2016-01-01

Bacteria are key players in biological wastewater treatments (WWTs), thus a firm knowledge of the bacterial population dynamics is crucial to understand environmental/operational factors affecting the efficiency and stability of the biological depuration process. Unfortunately, little is known about the microbial ecology of the advanced biological WWTs combining suspended biomass (SB) and attached biofilms (AB). This study explored in depth the bacterial community structure and population dynamics in each biomass fraction from a pilot-scale moving bed membrane bioreactor (MBMBR) treating municipal sewage, by means of temperature-gradient gel electrophoresis (TGGE) and 454-pyrosequencing. Eight experimental phases were conducted, combining different carrier filling ratios, hydraulic retention times and concentrations of mixed liquor total suspended solids. The bacterial community, dominated by Proteobacteria (20.9-53.8%) and Actinobacteria (20.6-57.6%), was very similar in both biomass fractions and able to maintain its functional stability under all the operating conditions, ensuring a successful and steady depuration process. Multivariate statistical analysis demonstrated that solids concentration, carrier filling ratio, temperature and organic matter concentration in the influent were the significant factors explaining population dynamics. Bacterial diversity increased as carrier filling ratio increased (from 20% to 35%, v/v), and solids concentration was the main factor triggering the shifts of the community structure. These findings provide new insights on the influence of operational parameters on the biology of the innovative MBMBRs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Social Structure Drives the Population Dynamics of the Common Vampire Bat (Desmodus rotundus, Phyllostomidae).

PubMed

Huguin, Maïlis; Arechiga-Ceballos, Nidia; Delaval, Marguerite; Guidez, Amandine; de Castro, Isaï Jorge; Lacoste, Vincent; Salmier, Arielle; Setién, Alvaro Aguilar; Silva, Claudia Regina; Lavergne, Anne; de Thoisy, Benoit

2018-05-11

Social systems are major drivers of population structure and gene flow, with important effects on dynamics and dispersal of associated populations of parasites. Among bats, the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) has likely one of the most complex social structures. Using autosomal and mitochondrial markers on vampires from Mexico, French Guiana, and North Brazil, from both roosting and foraging areas, we observed an isolation by distance at the wider scale and lower but significant differentiation between closer populations (<50 km). All populations had a low level of relatedness and showed deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and a low but significant inbreeding coefficient. The associated heterozygote deficiency was likely related to a Wahlund effect and to cryptic structures, reflecting social groups living in syntopy, both in roosting and foraging areas, with only limited admixture. Discrepancy between mitochondrial and nuclear markers suggests female philopatry and higher dispersal rates in males, associated with peripheral positions in the groups. Vampires are also the main neotropical reservoir for rabies virus, one of the main lethal pathogens for humans. Female social behaviors and trophallaxis may favor a rapid spread of virus to related and unrelated offspring and females. The high dispersal capacity of males may explain the wider circulation of viruses and the inefficacy of bat population controls. In such opportunistic species, gene connectivity should be considered for management decision making. Strategies such as culling could induce immigration of bats from neighboring colonies to fill vacant roosts and feeding areas, associated with the dispersal of viral strains.

Diversity of Fusarium head blight populations and trichothecene toxin types reveals regional differences in pathogen composition and temporal dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Analyses of genetic diversity, trichothecene genotype composition, and population structure were conducted using 4,086 Fusarium graminearum isolates collected from wheat in eight Canadian provinces over a three year period between 2005 and 2007. The results revealed substantial regional differences ...

Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

PubMed

García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

2014-12-21

Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the effects of space structure and combination therapies on phenotypic heterogeneity and drug resistance in solid tumors.

PubMed

Lorz, Alexander; Lorenzi, Tommaso; Clairambault, Jean; Escargueil, Alexandre; Perthame, Benoît

2015-01-01

Histopathological evidence supports the idea that the emergence of phenotypic heterogeneity and resistance to cytotoxic drugs can be considered as a process of selection in tumor cell populations. In this framework, can we explain intra-tumor heterogeneity in terms of selection driven by the local cell environment? Can we overcome the emergence of resistance and favor the eradication of cancer cells by using combination therapies? Bearing these questions in mind, we develop a model describing cell dynamics inside a tumor spheroid under the effects of cytotoxic and cytostatic drugs. Cancer cells are assumed to be structured as a population by two real variables standing for space position and the expression level of a phenotype of resistance to cytotoxic drugs. The model takes explicitly into account the dynamics of resources and anticancer drugs as well as their interactions with the cell population under treatment. We analyze the effects of space structure and combination therapies on phenotypic heterogeneity and chemotherapeutic resistance. Furthermore, we study the efficacy of combined therapy protocols based on constant infusion and bang-bang delivery of cytotoxic and cytostatic drugs.

Genotypic diversity of merozoite surface antigen 1 of Babesia bovis within an endemic population.

PubMed

Lau, Audrey O T; Cereceres, Karla; Palmer, Guy H; Fretwell, Debbie L; Pedroni, Monica J; Mosqueda, Juan; McElwain, Terry F

2010-08-01

Multiple genetically distinct strains of a pathogen circulate and compete for dominance within populations of animal reservoir hosts. Understanding the basis for genotypic strain structure is critical for predicting how pathogens respond to selective pressures and how shifts in pathogen population structure can lead to disease outbreaks. Evidence from related Apicomplexans such as Plasmodium, Toxoplasma, Cryptosporidium and Theileria suggests that various patterns of population dynamics exist, including but not limited to clonal, oligoclonal, panmictic and epidemic genotypic strain structures. In Babesia bovis, genetic diversity of variable merozoite surface antigen (VMSA) genes has been associated with disease outbreaks, including in previously vaccinated animals. However, the extent of VMSA diversity within a defined population in an endemic area has not been examined. We analyzed genotypic diversity and temporal change of MSA-1, a member of the VMSA family, in individual infected animals within a reservoir host population. Twenty-eight distinct MSA-1 genotypes were identified within the herd. All genotypically distinct MSA-1 sequences clustered into three groups based on sequence similarity. Two thirds of the animals tested changed their dominant MSA-1 genotypes during a 6-month period. Five animals within the population contained multiple genotypes. Interestingly, the predominant genotypes within those five animals also changed over the 6-month sampling period, suggesting ongoing transmission or emergence of variant MSA-1 genotypes within the herd. This study demonstrated an unexpected level of diversity for a single copy gene in a haploid genome, and illustrates the dynamic genotype structure of B. bovis within an individual animal in an endemic region. Co-infection with multiple diverse MSA-1 genotypes provides a basis for more extensive genotypic shifts that characterizes outbreak strains.

Effect of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea on the nutrient dynamics under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, J. P.; Lillebø, A. I.; Crespo, D.; Leston, S.; Dolbeth, M.

2018-05-01

The main aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea (Müller, 1774) in the nutrient dynamics of temperate estuarine systems (oligohaline areas) under climate change scenarios. The scenarios simulated shifts in climatic conditions, following salinity (0 or 5) and temperature (24 or 30 °C) changes, usual during drought and heat wave events. The effect of the individual size/age (different size classes with fixed biomass) and density (various densities of <1 cm clams) on the bioturbation-associated nutrient dynamics were also evaluated under an 18-day laboratory experimental setup. Results highlight the significant effect of C. fluminea on the ecosystem nutrient dynamics, enhancing the efflux of both phosphate and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from the sediments to the water column. Both drought and heat wave events will have an impact on the DIN dynamics within C. fluminea colonized systems, favouring a higher NH4-N efflux. The population structure of C. fluminea will have a decisive role on the impact of the species, with stronger nutrient effluxes associated with a predominantly juvenile population structure.

Quantitative Investigation of the Role of Intra-/Intercellular Dynamics in Bacterial Quorum Sensing.

PubMed

Leaman, Eric J; Geuther, Brian Q; Behkam, Bahareh

2018-04-20

Bacteria utilize diffusible signals to regulate population density-dependent coordinated gene expression in a process called quorum sensing (QS). While the intracellular regulatory mechanisms of QS are well-understood, the effect of spatiotemporal changes in the population configuration on the sensitivity and robustness of the QS response remains largely unexplored. Using a microfluidic device, we quantitatively characterized the emergent behavior of a population of swimming E. coli bacteria engineered with the lux QS system and a GFP reporter. We show that the QS activation time follows a power law with respect to bacterial population density, but this trend is disrupted significantly by microscale variations in population configuration and genetic circuit noise. We then developed a computational model that integrates population dynamics with genetic circuit dynamics to enable accurate (less than 7% error) quantitation of the bacterial QS activation time. Through modeling and experimental analyses, we show that changes in spatial configuration of swimming bacteria can drastically alter the QS activation time, by up to 22%. The integrative model developed herein also enables examination of the performance robustness of synthetic circuits with respect to growth rate, circuit sensitivity, and the population's initial size and spatial structure. Our framework facilitates quantitative tuning of microbial systems performance through rational engineering of synthetic ribosomal binding sites. We have demonstrated this through modulation of QS activation time over an order of magnitude. Altogether, we conclude that predictive engineering of QS-based bacterial systems requires not only the precise temporal modulation of gene expression (intracellular dynamics) but also accounting for the spatiotemporal changes in population configuration (intercellular dynamics).

The western spruce budworm model: structure and content.

Treesearch

K.A. Sheehan; W.P. Kemp; J.J. Colbert; N.L. Crookston

1989-01-01

The Budworm Model predicts the amounts of foliage destroyed annually by the western spruce budworm, Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman, in a forest stand. The model may be used independently, or it may be linked to the Stand Prognosis Model to simulate the dynamics of forest stands. Many processes that affect budworm population dynamics are...

The evolution of labile traits in sex- and age-structured populations.

PubMed

Childs, Dylan Z; Sheldon, Ben C; Rees, Mark

2016-03-01

Many quantitative traits are labile (e.g. somatic growth rate, reproductive timing and investment), varying over the life cycle as a result of behavioural adaptation, developmental processes and plastic responses to the environment. At the population level, selection can alter the distribution of such traits across age classes and among generations. Despite a growing body of theoretical research exploring the evolutionary dynamics of labile traits, a data-driven framework for incorporating such traits into demographic models has not yet been developed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being used to understand the interplay between changes in labile characters, life histories and population dynamics. One limitation of the IPM approach is that it relies on phenotypic associations between parents and offspring traits to capture inheritance. However, it is well-established that many different processes may drive these associations, and currently, no clear consensus has emerged on how to model micro-evolutionary dynamics in an IPM framework. We show how to embed quantitative genetic models of inheritance of labile traits into age-structured, two-sex models that resemble standard IPMs. Commonly used statistical tools such as GLMs and their mixed model counterparts can then be used for model parameterization. We illustrate the methodology through development of a simple model of egg-laying date evolution, parameterized using data from a population of Great tits (Parus major). We demonstrate how our framework can be used to project the joint dynamics of species' traits and population density. We then develop a simple extension of the age-structured Price equation (ASPE) for two-sex populations, and apply this to examine the age-specific contributions of different processes to change in the mean phenotype and breeding value. The data-driven framework we outline here has the potential to facilitate greater insight into the nature of selection and its consequences in settings where focal traits vary over the lifetime through ontogeny, behavioural adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, as well as providing a potential bridge between theoretical and empirical studies of labile trait variation. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Habitat fragmentation effects depend on complex interactions between population size and dispersal ability: Modeling influences of roads, agriculture and residential development across a range of life-history characteristics [chapter 20

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Bradley W. Compton; Kevin McGarigal

2010-01-01

Habitat loss and fragmentation are widely believed to be the most important drivers of extinction (Leakey and Lewin 1995). The habitats in which organisms live are spatially structured at a number of scales, and these patterns interact with organism perception and behavior to drive population dynamics and community structure (Johnson et al. 1992). Anthropogenic habitat...

Large Variations in HIV-1 Viral Load Explained by Shifting-Mosaic Metapopulation Dynamics

PubMed Central

Lythgoe, Katrina A.; Blanquart, François

2016-01-01

The viral population of HIV-1, like many pathogens that cause systemic infection, is structured and differentiated within the body. The dynamics of cellular immune trafficking through the blood and within compartments of the body has also received wide attention. Despite these advances, mathematical models, which are widely used to interpret and predict viral and immune dynamics in infection, typically treat the infected host as a well-mixed homogeneous environment. Here, we present mathematical, analytical, and computational results that demonstrate that consideration of the spatial structure of the viral population within the host radically alters predictions of previous models. We study the dynamics of virus replication and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) within a metapopulation of spatially segregated patches, representing T cell areas connected by circulating blood and lymph. The dynamics of the system depend critically on the interaction between CTLs and infected cells at the within-patch level. We show that for a wide range of parameters, the system admits an unexpected outcome called the shifting-mosaic steady state. In this state, the whole body’s viral population is stable over time, but the equilibrium results from an underlying, highly dynamic process of local infection and clearance within T-cell centers. Notably, and in contrast to previous models, this new model can explain the large differences in set-point viral load (SPVL) observed between patients and their distribution, as well as the relatively low proportion of cells infected at any one time, and alters the predicted determinants of viral load variation. PMID:27706164

Population structure and dynamics of northern pike and smallmouth bass in Coeur d’Alene Lake, Idaho.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walrath, John D.; Quist, Michael C.; Firehammer, Jon A.

2015-01-01

Numerous species have been introduced to Coeur d'Alene Lake, Idaho over the last century, but minimal research has been completed to understand their population dynamics. The objective of this study was to describe the population demographics and dynamics of northern pike (Esox lucius) and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), two important nonnative sport fishes in the system to provide information that will assist with guiding management decisions. The oldest northern pike was age 7 and the oldest smallmouth bass was age 11. Populations of both species exhibited very stable recruitment with a recruitment coefficient of determination of 0.99 for northern pike and 0.98 for smallmouth bass. Total annual mortality was estimated as 66% for northern pike and 42% for smallmouth bass. Growth of northern pike in Coeur d'Alene Lake was comparable to the 50–75th percentiles of growth exhibited by lentic northern pike populations across North America. Northern pike in Coeur d'Alene Lake were most similar to populations in the north-central and northeast United States with fast growth rates and short life spans. In contrast, smallmouth bass grew slowly and generally fell within the 5th percentile of lentic smallmouth bass populations in North America. Smallmouth bass in Coeur d'Alene Lake were similar to other populations in northern regions of the United States displaying slow growth rates with high longevity. Results of this study provide important insight on nonnative northern pike and smallmouth bass population dynamics.

13C, 2H NMR Studies of Structural and Dynamical Modifications of Glucose-Exposed Porcine Aortic Elastin

PubMed Central

Silverstein, Moshe C.; Bilici, Kübra; Morgan, Steven W.; Wang, Yunjie; Zhang, Yanhang; Boutis, Gregory S.

2015-01-01

Elastin, the principal component of the elastic fiber of the extracellular matrix, imparts to vertebrate tissues remarkable resilience and longevity. This work focuses on elucidating dynamical and structural modifications of porcine aortic elastin exposed to glucose by solid-state NMR spectroscopic and relaxation methodologies. Results from macroscopic stress-strain tests are also presented and indicate that glucose-treated elastin is mechanically stiffer than the same tissue without glucose treatment. These measurements show a large hysteresis in the stress-strain behavior of glucose-treated elastin—a well-known signature of viscoelasticity. Two-dimensional relaxation NMR methods were used to investigate the correlation time, distribution, and population of water in these samples. Differences are observed between the relative populations of water, whereas the measured correlation times of tumbling motion of water across the samples were similar. 13C magic-angle-spinning NMR methods were applied to investigate structural and dynamical modifications after glucose treatment. Although some overall structure is preserved, the process of glucose exposure results in more heterogeneous structures and slower mobility. The correlation times of tumbling motion of the 13C-1H internuclear vectors in the glucose-treated sample are larger than in untreated samples, pointing to their more rigid structure. The 13C cross-polarization spectra reveal a notably increased α-helical character in the alanine motifs after glucose exposure. Results from molecular dynamics simulations are provided that add further insight into dynamical and structural changes of a short repeat, [VPGVG]5, an alanine pentamer, desmosine, and isodesmosine sites with and without glucose. The simulations point to changes in the entropic and energetic contributions in the retractive forces of VPGVG and AAAAA motifs. The most notable change is the increase of the energetic contribution in the retractive force due to peptide-glucose interactions of the VPGVG motif, which may play an important role in the observed stiffening in glucose-treated elastin. PMID:25863067

Social and Population Structure in the Ant Cataglyphis emmae

PubMed Central

Jowers, Michael J.; Leniaud, Laurianne; Cerdá, Xim; Alasaad, Samer; Caut, Stephane; Amor, Fernando; Aron, Serge; Boulay, Raphaël R.

2013-01-01

Dispersal has consequences not only for individual fitness, but also for population dynamics, population genetics and species distribution. Social Hymenoptera show two contrasting colony reproductive strategies, dependent and independent colony foundation modes, and these are often associated to the population structures derived from inter and intra-population gene flow processes conditioned by alternative dispersal strategies. Here we employ microsatellite and mitochondrial markers to investigate the population and social genetic structure and dispersal patterns in the ant Cataglyphis emmae at both, local and regional scales. We find that C. emmae is monogynous and polyandrous. Lack of detection of any population viscosity and population structure with nuclear markers at the local scale suggests efficient dispersal, in agreement with a lack of inbreeding. Contrasting demographic differences before and during the mating seasons suggest that C. emmae workers raise sexuals in peripheric nest chambers to reduce intracolonial conflicts. The high genetic differentiation recovered from the mtDNA haplotypes, together with the significant correlation of such to geographic distance, and presence of new nuclear alleles between areas (valleys) suggest long-term historical isolation between these regions, indicative of limited dispersal at the regional scale. Our findings on the ecological, social and population structure of this species increases our understanding of the patterns and processes involved under independent colony foundation. PMID:24039827

Life history and past demography maintain genetic structure, outcrossing rate, contemporary pollen gene flow of an understory herb in a highly fragmented rainforest

PubMed Central

Suárez-Montes, Pilar; Chávez-Pesqueira, Mariana

2016-01-01

Introduction Theory predicts that habitat fragmentation, by reducing population size and increasing isolation among remnant populations, can alter their genetic diversity and structure. A cascade of effects is expected: genetic drift and inbreeding after a population bottleneck, changes in biotic interactions that may affect, as in the case of plants, pollen dynamics, mating system, reproductive success. The detection of the effects of contemporary habitat fragmentation on the genetic structure of populations are conditioned by the magnitude of change, given the few number of generations since the onset of fragmentation, especially for long-lived organisms. However, the present-day genetic structure of populations may bear the signature of past demography events. Here, we examine the effects of rainforest fragmentation on the genetic diversity, population structure, mating system (outcrossing rate), indirect gene flow and contemporary pollen dynamics in the understory herb Aphelandra aurantiaca. Also, we assessed its present-day genetic structure under different past demographic scenarios. Methods Twelve populations of A. aurantiaca were sampled in large (4), medium (3), and small (5) forest fragments in the lowland tropical rainforest at Los Tuxtlas region. Variation at 11 microsatellite loci was assessed in 28–30 reproductive plants per population. In two medium- and two large-size fragments we estimated the density of reproductive plants, and the mating system by analyzing the progeny of different mother plants per population. Results Despite prevailing habitat fragmentation, populations of A. aurantiaca possess high genetic variation (He = 0.61), weak genetic structure (Rst = 0.037), and slight inbreeding in small fragments. Effective population sizes (Ne) were large, but slightly lower in small fragments. Migrants derive mostly from large and medium size fragments. Gene dispersal is highly restricted but long distance gene dispersal events were detected. Aphelandra aurantiaca shows a mixed mating system (tm = 0.81) and the outcrossing rate have not been affected by habitat fragmentation. A strong pollen pool structure was detected due to few effective pollen donors (Nep) and low distance pollen movement, pointing that most plants received pollen from close neighbors. Past demographic fluctuations may have affected the present population genetic structure as Bayesian coalescent analysis revealed the signature of past population expansion, possibly during warmer conditions after the last glacial maximum. Discussion Habitat fragmentation has not increased genetic differentiation or reduced genetic diversity of A. aurantiaca despite dozens of generations since the onset of fragmentation in the region of Los Tuxtlas. Instead, past population expansion is compatible with the lack of observed genetic structure. The predicted negative effects of rainforest fragmentation on genetic diversity and population structure of A. aurantiaca seem to have been buffered owing to its large effective populations and long-distance dispersal events. In particular, its mixed-mating system, mostly of outcrossing, suggests high efficiency of pollinators promoting connectivity and reducing inbreeding. However, some results point that the effects of fragmentation are underway, as two small fragments showed higher membership probabilities to their population of origin, suggesting genetic isolation. Our findings underscore the importance of fragment size to maintain genetic connectivity across the landscape. PMID:28028460

The role of population inertia in predicting the outcome of stage-structured biological invasions.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Dreiwi, Hanan; Filannino, Donna-Maria; Hodgson, Dave; Lloyd, Stephanie; Townley, Stuart

2015-07-01

Deterministic dynamic models for coupled resident and invader populations are considered with the purpose of finding quantities that are effective at predicting when the invasive population will become established asymptotically. A key feature of the models considered is the stage-structure, meaning that the populations are described by vectors of discrete developmental stage- or age-classes. The vector structure permits exotic transient behaviour-phenomena not encountered in scalar models. Analysis using a linear Lyapunov function demonstrates that for the class of population models considered, a large so-called population inertia is indicative of successful invasion. Population inertia is an indicator of transient growth or decline. Furthermore, for the class of models considered, we find that the so-called invasion exponent, an existing index used in models for invasion, is not always a reliable comparative indicator of successful invasion. We highlight these findings through numerical examples and a biological interpretation of why this might be the case is discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient

PubMed Central

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-01-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients. PMID:22588131

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient.

PubMed

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-09-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients.

Computer simulation of the coffee leaf miner using sexual Penna aging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, A. C. S.; Martins, S. G. F.; Zacarias, M. S.

2008-01-01

Forecast models based on climatic conditions are of great interest in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs. The success of these models depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of the temperature effect on the pests’ population dynamics. In this direction, a computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of the coffee leaf miner, L. coffeella, at different temperatures, considering experimental data relative to the pest. The age structure was inserted into the dynamics through sexual Penna Model. The results obtained, such as life expectancy, growth rate and annual generations’ number, in agreement to those in laboratory and field conditions, show that the simulation can be used as a forecast model for controlling L. coffeella.

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Complex Ancient Genetic Structure and Cultural Transitions in Southern African Populations.

PubMed

Montinaro, Francesco; Busby, George B J; Gonzalez-Santos, Miguel; Oosthuitzen, Ockie; Oosthuitzen, Erika; Anagnostou, Paolo; Destro-Bisol, Giovanni; Pascali, Vincenzo L; Capelli, Cristian

2017-01-01

The characterization of the structure of southern African populations has been the subject of numerous genetic, medical, linguistic, archaeological, and anthropological investigations. Current diversity in the subcontinent is the result of complex events of genetic admixture and cultural contact between early inhabitants and migrants that arrived in the region over the last 2000 years. Here, we analyze 1856 individuals from 91 populations, comprising novel and published genotype data, to characterize the genetic ancestry profiles of 631 individuals from 51 southern African populations. Combining both local ancestry and allele frequency based analyses, we identify a tripartite, ancient, Khoesan-related genetic structure. This structure correlates neither with linguistic affiliation nor subsistence strategy, but with geography, revealing the importance of isolation-by-distance dynamics in the area. Fine-mapping of these components in southern African populations reveals admixture and cultural reversion involving several Khoesan groups, and highlights that Bantu speakers and Coloured individuals have different mixtures of these ancient ancestries. Copyright © 2017 Montinaro et al.

Molecular population dynamics of DNA structures in a bcl-2 promoter sequence is regulated by small molecules and the transcription factor hnRNP LL

PubMed Central

Cui, Yunxi; Koirala, Deepak; Kang, HyunJin; Dhakal, Soma; Yangyuoru, Philip; Hurley, Laurence H.; Mao, Hanbin

2014-01-01

Minute difference in free energy change of unfolding among structures in an oligonucleotide sequence can lead to a complex population equilibrium, which is rather challenging for ensemble techniques to decipher. Herein, we introduce a new method, molecular population dynamics (MPD), to describe the intricate equilibrium among non-B deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) structures. Using mechanical unfolding in laser tweezers, we identified six DNA species in a cytosine (C)-rich bcl-2 promoter sequence. Population patterns of these species with and without a small molecule (IMC-76 or IMC-48) or the transcription factor hnRNP LL are compared to reveal the MPD of different species. With a pattern recognition algorithm, we found that IMC-48 and hnRNP LL share 80% similarity in stabilizing i-motifs with 60 s incubation. In contrast, IMC-76 demonstrates an opposite behavior, preferring flexible DNA hairpins. With 120–180 s incubation, IMC-48 and hnRNP LL destabilize i-motifs, which has been previously proposed to activate bcl-2 transcriptions. These results provide strong support, from the population equilibrium perspective, that small molecules and hnRNP LL can modulate bcl-2 transcription through interaction with i-motifs. The excellent agreement with biochemical results firmly validates the MPD analyses, which, we expect, can be widely applicable to investigate complex equilibrium of biomacromolecules. PMID:24609386

Charge carrier dynamics of GaAs/AlGaAs asymmetric double quantum wells at room temperature studied by optical pump terahertz probe spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afalla, Jessica; Ohta, Kaoru; Tokonami, Shunrou; Prieto, Elizabeth Ann; Catindig, Gerald Angelo; Cedric Gonzales, Karl; Jaculbia, Rafael; Vasquez, John Daniel; Somintac, Armando; Salvador, Arnel; Estacio, Elmer; Tani, Masahiko; Tominaga, Keisuke

2017-11-01

Two asymmetric double quantum wells of different coupling strengths (barrier widths) were grown via molecular beam epitaxy, both samples allowing tunneling. Photoluminescence was measured at 10 and 300 K to provide evidence of tunneling, barrier dependence, and structural uniformity. Carrier dynamics at room temperature was investigated by optical pump terahertz probe (OPTP) spectroscopy. Carrier population decay rates were obtained and photoconductivity spectra were analyzed using the Drude model. This work demonstrates that carrier, and possibly tunneling dynamics in asymmetric double quantum well structures may be studied at room temperature through OPTP spectroscopy.

Population structure of the hydrocoral Millepora platyphylla in habitats experiencing different flow regimes in Moorea, French Polynesia

PubMed Central

Mercière, Alexandre; Vermeij, Mark J. A.; Planes, Serge

2017-01-01

While the fire coral Millepora platyphylla is an important component of Indo-Pacific reefs, where it thrives in a wide range of environments, the ecological and biological processes driving its distribution and population structure are not well understood. Here, we quantified this species’ population structure in five habitats with contrasting hydrodynamic regimes in Moorea, French Polynesia; two in the fore reef: mid and upper slopes, and three in the lagoon: back, fringing and patch reefs. A total of 3651 colonies of fire corals were mapped and measured over 45,000 m2 of surveyed reef. Due to the species’ sensitivity to fragmentation in response to strong water movement, hydrodynamic conditions (e.g. waves, pass and lagoonal circulation) corresponded to marked differences in colony size distributions, morphology and recruitment dynamics among habitats. The size structure varied among reef habitats with higher proportions of larger colonies in calm nearshore reefs (fringing and patch reefs), while populations were dominated by smaller colonies in the exposed fore reefs. The highest densities of fire corals were recorded in fore reef habitats (0.12–0.20 n.m-2) where the proportion of recruits and juveniles was higher at mid slope populations (49.3%) than on the upper slope near where waves break (29.0%). In the latter habitat, most colonies grew as vertical sheets on encrusting bases making them more vulnerable to colony fragmentation, whereas fire corals were encrusting or massive in all other habitats. The lowest densities of M. platyphylla occurred in lagoonal habitats (0.02–0.04 n.m-2) characterized by a combination of low water movement and other physical and biological stressors. This study reports the first evidence of population structure of fire corals in two common reef environments and illustrates the importance of water flow in driving population dynamic processes of these reef-building species. PMID:28273119

Population structure of the hydrocoral Millepora platyphylla in habitats experiencing different flow regimes in Moorea, French Polynesia.

PubMed

Dubé, Caroline E; Mercière, Alexandre; Vermeij, Mark J A; Planes, Serge

2017-01-01

While the fire coral Millepora platyphylla is an important component of Indo-Pacific reefs, where it thrives in a wide range of environments, the ecological and biological processes driving its distribution and population structure are not well understood. Here, we quantified this species' population structure in five habitats with contrasting hydrodynamic regimes in Moorea, French Polynesia; two in the fore reef: mid and upper slopes, and three in the lagoon: back, fringing and patch reefs. A total of 3651 colonies of fire corals were mapped and measured over 45,000 m2 of surveyed reef. Due to the species' sensitivity to fragmentation in response to strong water movement, hydrodynamic conditions (e.g. waves, pass and lagoonal circulation) corresponded to marked differences in colony size distributions, morphology and recruitment dynamics among habitats. The size structure varied among reef habitats with higher proportions of larger colonies in calm nearshore reefs (fringing and patch reefs), while populations were dominated by smaller colonies in the exposed fore reefs. The highest densities of fire corals were recorded in fore reef habitats (0.12-0.20 n.m-2) where the proportion of recruits and juveniles was higher at mid slope populations (49.3%) than on the upper slope near where waves break (29.0%). In the latter habitat, most colonies grew as vertical sheets on encrusting bases making them more vulnerable to colony fragmentation, whereas fire corals were encrusting or massive in all other habitats. The lowest densities of M. platyphylla occurred in lagoonal habitats (0.02-0.04 n.m-2) characterized by a combination of low water movement and other physical and biological stressors. This study reports the first evidence of population structure of fire corals in two common reef environments and illustrates the importance of water flow in driving population dynamic processes of these reef-building species.

[The structural functional analysis of functioning of day-hospitals of the Russian Federation].

PubMed

2012-01-01

The article deals with the results of structural functional analysis of functioning of day-hospitals in the Russian Federation. The dynamic analysis is presented concerning day-hospitals' network, capacity; financial support, beds stock structure, treated patients structure, volumes of diagnostic tests and curative procedures. The need in developing of population medical care in conditions of day-hospitals is demonstrated.

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape.

PubMed

Kahilainen, Aapo; van Nouhuys, Saskya; Schulz, Torsti; Saastamoinen, Marjo

2018-04-23

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long-term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life-history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

PubMed Central

Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

2013-01-01

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar. PMID:23675291

Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus.

PubMed

Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

2013-01-01

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

Quantitative sampling of conformational heterogeneity of a DNA hairpin using molecular dynamics simulations and ultrafast fluorescence spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Voltz, Karine; Léonard, Jérémie; Touceda, Patricia Tourón; Conyard, Jamie; Chaker, Ziyad; Dejaegere, Annick; Godet, Julien; Mély, Yves; Haacke, Stefan; Stote, Roland H.

2016-01-01

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and time resolved fluorescence (TRF) spectroscopy were combined to quantitatively describe the conformational landscape of the DNA primary binding sequence (PBS) of the HIV-1 genome, a short hairpin targeted by retroviral nucleocapsid proteins implicated in the viral reverse transcription. Three 2-aminopurine (2AP) labeled PBS constructs were studied. For each variant, the complete distribution of fluorescence lifetimes covering 5 orders of magnitude in timescale was measured and the populations of conformers experimentally observed to undergo static quenching were quantified. A binary quantification permitted the comparison of populations from experimental lifetime amplitudes to populations of aromatically stacked 2AP conformers obtained from simulation. Both populations agreed well, supporting the general assumption that quenching of 2AP fluorescence results from pi-stacking interactions with neighboring nucleobases and demonstrating the success of the proposed methodology for the combined analysis of TRF and MD data. Cluster analysis of the latter further identified predominant conformations that were consistent with the fluorescence decay times and amplitudes, providing a structure-based rationalization for the wide range of fluorescence lifetimes. Finally, the simulations provided evidence of local structural perturbations induced by 2AP. The approach presented is a general tool to investigate fine structural heterogeneity in nucleic acid and nucleoprotein assemblies. PMID:26896800

Critical patch-size for two-sex populations.

PubMed

Andreguetto Maciel, Gabriel; Mendes Coutinho, Renato; André Kraenkel, Roberto

2018-06-01

As environments become increasingly degraded, mainly due to human activities, species are often subject to isolated habitats surrounded by unfavorable regions. Since the pioneering work by Skellam [25] mathematical models have provided useful insights into the population persistence in such cases. Most of these models, however, neglect the sex structure of populations and the differences between males and females. In this work we investigate, through a reaction-diffusion system, the dynamics of a sex-structured population in a single semipermeable patch. The critical patch size for persistence is determined from implicit relationships between model parameters. The effects of the various growth and movement parameters are also investigated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Transoceanic migration, spatial dynamics, and population linkages of white sharks.

PubMed

Bonfil, Ramón; Meÿer, Michael; Scholl, Michael C; Johnson, Ryan; O'Brien, Shannon; Oosthuizen, Herman; Swanson, Stephan; Kotze, Deon; Paterson, Michael

2005-10-07

The large-scale spatial dynamics and population structure of marine top predators are poorly known. We present electronic tag and photographic identification data showing a complex suite of behavioral patterns in white sharks. These include coastal return migrations and the fastest known transoceanic return migration among swimming fauna, which provide direct evidence of a link between widely separated populations in South Africa and Australia. Transoceanic return migration involved a return to the original capture location, dives to depths of 980 meters, and the tolerance of water temperatures as low as 3.4 degrees C. These findings contradict previous ideas that female white sharks do not make transoceanic migrations, and they suggest natal homing behavior.

Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning

PubMed Central

Dann, Benjamin

2016-01-01

Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity. PMID:27814352

Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning.

PubMed

Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg

2016-11-01

Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.

Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata.

PubMed

Yao, Zhenwei

2017-12-01

Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.

Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhenwei

2017-12-01

Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.

Challenges to Mental Health Counselors in a Dynamic Society: Macrostrategies in the Profession.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herr, Edwin L.

1991-01-01

Addresses major challenges facing mental health counselors in decade ahead and twenty-first century, including effects of advanced technology on occupational structure, changing family structures, cultural diversity and pluralism, and enlarging populations at risk. Advocates challenges be considered within profession's planning of macrostrategies,…

Spatiotemporal model of barley and cereal yellow dwarf virus transmission dynamics with seasonality and plant competition

Treesearch

S.M. Moore; C.A. Manore; V.A. Bokil; E.T. Borer; P.R. Hosseini

2011-01-01

Many generalist pathogens are influenced by the spatial distributions and relative abundances of susceptible host species. The spatial structure of host populations can influence patterns of infection incidence (or disease outbreaks), and the effects of a generalist pathogen on host community dynamics in a spatially heterogeneous community may differ from predictions...

From structure to function, via dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stetter, O.; Soriano, J.; Geisel, T.; Battaglia, D.

2013-01-01

Neurons in the brain are wired into a synaptic network that spans multiple scales, from local circuits within cortical columns to fiber tracts interconnecting distant areas. However, brain function require the dynamic control of inter-circuit interactions on time-scales faster than synaptic changes. In particular, strength and direction of causal influences between neural populations (described by the so-called directed functional connectivity) must be reconfigurable even when the underlying structural connectivity is fixed. Such directed functional influences can be quantified resorting to causal analysis of time-series based on tools like Granger Causality or Transfer Entropy. The ability to quickly reorganize inter-areal interactions is a chief requirement for performance in a changing natural environment. But how can manifold functional networks stem "on demand" from an essentially fixed structure? We explore the hypothesis that the self-organization of neuronal synchronous activity underlies the control of brain functional connectivity. Based on simulated and real recordings of critical neuronal cultures in vitro, as well as on mean-field and spiking network models of interacting brain areas, we have found that "function follows dynamics", rather than structure. Different dynamic states of a same structural network, characterized by different synchronization properties, are indeed associated to different functional digraphs (functional multiplicity). We also highlight the crucial role of dynamics in establishing a structure-to-function link, by showing that whenever different structural topologies lead to similar dynamical states, than the associated functional connectivities are also very similar (structural degeneracy).

Simulated population responses of common carp to commercial exploitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weber, Michael J.; Hennen, Matthew J.; Brown, Michael L.

2011-12-01

Common carp Cyprinus carpio is a widespread invasive species that can become highly abundant and impose deleterious ecosystem effects. Thus, aquatic resource managers are interested in controlling common carp populations. Control of invasive common carp populations is difficult, due in part to the inherent uncertainty of how populations respond to exploitation. To understand how common carp populations respond to exploitation, we evaluated common carp population dynamics (recruitment, growth, and mortality) in three natural lakes in eastern South Dakota. Common carp exhibited similar population dynamics across these three systems that were characterized by consistent recruitment (ages 3 to 15 years present),more » fast growth (K = 0.37 to 0.59), and low mortality (A = 1 to 7%). We then modeled the effects of commercial exploitation on size structure, abundance, and egg production to determine its utility as a management tool to control populations. All three populations responded similarly to exploitation simulations with a 575-mm length restriction, representing commercial gear selectivity. Simulated common carp size structure modestly declined (9 to 37%) in all simulations. Abundance of common carp declined dramatically (28 to 56%) at low levels of exploitation (0 to 20%) but exploitation >40% had little additive effect and populations were only reduced by 49 to 79% despite high exploitation (>90%). Maximum lifetime egg production was reduced from 77 to 89% at a moderate level of exploitation (40%), indicating the potential for recruitment overfishing. Exploitation further reduced common carp size structure, abundance, and egg production when simulations were not size selective. Our results provide insights to how common carp populations may respond to exploitation. Although commercial exploitation may be able to partially control populations, an integrated removal approach that removes all sizes of common carp has a greater chance of controlling population abundance and reducing perturbations induced by this invasive species.« less

The role of phenotype structure in the population dynamics of gypsy moth in the Lower Dnieper region

Treesearch

Nikolaj M. Derevyanko

1991-01-01

One of the characteristic features of the gypsy moth population in the Lower Dnieper area is its variable larval coloring. Phenotype frequency has been recorded over the years in separate micropopulations at different density levels. The data show the population to consist mainly of gray larvae in all life stages, and their abundance varying from 85 to 99.6 percent....

Tetraploid Wheat Landraces in the Mediterranean Basin: Taxonomy, Evolution and Genetic Diversity

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Hugo R.; Campana, Michael G.; Jones, Huw; Hunt, Harriet V.; Leigh, Fiona; Redhouse, David I.; Lister, Diane L.; Jones, Martin K.

2012-01-01

The geographic distribution of genetic diversity and the population structure of tetraploid wheat landraces in the Mediterranean basin has received relatively little attention. This is complicated by the lack of consensus concerning the taxonomy of tetraploid wheats and by unresolved questions regarding the domestication and spread of naked wheats. These knowledge gaps hinder crop diversity conservation efforts and plant breeding programmes. We investigated genetic diversity and population structure in tetraploid wheats (wild emmer, emmer, rivet and durum) using nuclear and chloroplast simple sequence repeats, functional variations and insertion site-based polymorphisms. Emmer and wild emmer constitute a genetically distinct population from durum and rivet, the latter seeming to share a common gene pool. Our population structure and genetic diversity data suggest a dynamic history of introduction and extinction of genotypes in the Mediterranean fields. PMID:22615891

Modeling oscillations and spiral waves in Dictyostelium populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noorbakhsh, Javad; Schwab, David J.; Sgro, Allyson E.; Gregor, Thomas; Mehta, Pankaj

2015-06-01

Unicellular organisms exhibit elaborate collective behaviors in response to environmental cues. These behaviors are controlled by complex biochemical networks within individual cells and coordinated through cell-to-cell communication. Describing these behaviors requires new mathematical models that can bridge scales—from biochemical networks within individual cells to spatially structured cellular populations. Here we present a family of "multiscale" models for the emergence of spiral waves in the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Our models exploit new experimental advances that allow for the direct measurement and manipulation of the small signaling molecule cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) used by Dictyostelium cells to coordinate behavior in cellular populations. Inspired by recent experiments, we model the Dictyostelium signaling network as an excitable system coupled to various preprocessing modules. We use this family of models to study spatially unstructured populations of "fixed" cells by constructing phase diagrams that relate the properties of population-level oscillations to parameters in the underlying biochemical network. We then briefly discuss an extension of our model that includes spatial structure and show how this naturally gives rise to spiral waves. Our models exhibit a wide range of novel phenomena. including a density-dependent frequency change, bistability, and dynamic death due to slow cAMP dynamics. Our modeling approach provides a powerful tool for bridging scales in modeling of Dictyostelium populations.

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

PubMed Central

Landguth, Erin L.; Bull, C. Michael; Banks, Sam C.; Gardner, Michael G.; Driscoll, Don A.

2016-01-01

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus. We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity in N. stellatus. Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics. PMID:27009225

Excitonic enhancement of nonradiative energy transfer to bulk silicon with the hybridization of cascaded quantum dots

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeltik, Aydan; Guzelturk, Burak; Akhavan, Shahab

2013-12-23

We report enhanced sensitization of silicon through nonradiative energy transfer (NRET) of the excitons in an energy-gradient structure composed of a cascaded bilayer of green- and red-emitting CdTe quantum dots (QDs) on bulk silicon. Here NRET dynamics were systematically investigated comparatively for the cascaded energy-gradient and mono-dispersed QD structures at room temperature. We show experimentally that NRET from the QD layer into silicon is enhanced by 40% in the case of an energy-gradient cascaded structure as compared to the mono-dispersed structures, which is in agreement with the theoretical analysis based on the excited state population-depopulation dynamics of the QDs.

Spatially cascading effect of perturbations in experimental meta-ecosystems.

PubMed

Harvey, Eric; Gounand, Isabelle; Ganesanandamoorthy, Pravin; Altermatt, Florian

2016-09-14

Ecosystems are linked to neighbouring ecosystems not only by dispersal, but also by the movement of subsidy. Such subsidy couplings between ecosystems have important landscape-scale implications because perturbations in one ecosystem may affect community structure and functioning in neighbouring ecosystems via increased/decreased subsidies. Here, we combine a general theoretical approach based on harvesting theory and a two-patch protist meta-ecosystem experiment to test the effect of regional perturbations on local community dynamics. We first characterized the relationship between the perturbation regime and local population demography on detritus production using a mathematical model. We then experimentally simulated a perturbation gradient affecting connected ecosystems simultaneously, thus altering cross-ecosystem subsidy exchanges. We demonstrate that the perturbation regime can interact with local population dynamics to trigger unexpected temporal variations in subsidy pulses from one ecosystem to another. High perturbation intensity initially led to the highest level of subsidy flows; however, the level of perturbation interacted with population dynamics to generate a crash in subsidy exchange over time. Both theoretical and experimental results show that a perturbation regime interacting with local community dynamics can induce a collapse in population levels for recipient ecosystems. These results call for integrative management of human-altered landscapes that takes into account regional dynamics of both species and resource flows. © 2016 The Author(s).

Environmental fluctuations restrict eco-evolutionary dynamics in predator-prey system.

PubMed

Hiltunen, Teppo; Ayan, Gökçe B; Becks, Lutz

2015-06-07

Environmental fluctuations, species interactions and rapid evolution are all predicted to affect community structure and their temporal dynamics. Although the effects of the abiotic environment and prey evolution on ecological community dynamics have been studied separately, these factors can also have interactive effects. Here we used bacteria-ciliate microcosm experiments to test for eco-evolutionary dynamics in fluctuating environments. Specifically, we followed population dynamics and a prey defence trait over time when populations were exposed to regular changes of bottom-up or top-down stressors, or combinations of these. We found that the rate of evolution of a defence trait was significantly lower in fluctuating compared with stable environments, and that the defence trait evolved to lower levels when two environmental stressors changed recurrently. The latter suggests that top-down and bottom-up changes can have additive effects constraining evolutionary response within populations. The differences in evolutionary trajectories are explained by fluctuations in population sizes of the prey and the predator, which continuously alter the supply of mutations in the prey and strength of selection through predation. Thus, it may be necessary to adopt an eco-evolutionary perspective on studies concerning the evolution of traits mediating species interactions. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Temporal genetic stability of Stegomyia aegypti (= Aedes aegypti) populations.

PubMed

Gloria-Soria, A; Kellner, D A; Brown, J E; Gonzalez-Acosta, C; Kamgang, B; Lutwama, J; Powell, J R

2016-06-01

The mosquito Stegomyia aegypti (= Aedes aegypti) (Diptera: Culicidae) is the primary vector of viruses that cause yellow fever, dengue and Chikungunya fever. In the absence of effective vaccines, the reduction of these diseases relies on vector control strategies. The success of these strategies is tightly linked to the population dynamics of target populations. In the present study, 14 collections from St. aegypti populations separated by periods of 1-13 years were analysed to determine their temporal genetic stability. Although temporal structure is discernible in most populations, the degree of temporal differentiation is dependent on the population and does not obscure the geographic structure of the various populations. The results suggest that performing detailed studies in the years prior to and after population reduction- or modification-based control interventions at each target field site may be useful in assessing the probability of success. © 2016 The Royal Entomological Society.

Competition in a Social Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legara, Erika Fille; Longjas, Anthony; Batac, Rene

Complex adaptive agents develop strategies in the presence of competition. In modern human societies, there is an inherent sense of locality when describing inter-agent dynamics because of its network structure. One then wonders whether the traditional advertising schemes that are globally publicized and target random individuals are as effective in attracting a larger portion of the population as those that take advantage of local neighborhoods, such as "word-of-mouth" marketing schemes. Here, we demonstrate using a differential equation model that schemes targeting local cliques within the network are more successful at gaining a larger share of the population than those that target users randomly at a global scale (e.g., television commercials, print ads, etc.). This suggests that success in the competition is dependent not only on the number of individuals in the population but also on how they are connected in the network. We further show that the model is general in nature by considering examples of competition dynamics, particularly those of business competition and language death.

Macrophage and T cell dynamics during the development and disintegration of mycobacterial granulomas.

PubMed

Egen, Jackson G; Rothfuchs, Antonio Gigliotti; Feng, Carl G; Winter, Nathalie; Sher, Alan; Germain, Ronald N

2008-02-01

Granulomas play a key role in host protection against mycobacterial pathogens, with their breakdown contributing to exacerbated disease. To better understand the initiation and maintenance of these structures, we employed both high-resolution multiplex static imaging and intravital multiphoton microscopy of Mycobacterium bovis BCG-induced liver granulomas. We found that Kupffer cells directly capture blood-borne bacteria and subsequently nucleate formation of a nascent granuloma by recruiting both uninfected liver-resident macrophages and blood-derived monocytes. Within the mature granuloma, these myeloid cell populations formed a relatively immobile cellular matrix that interacted with a highly dynamic effector T cell population. The efficient recruitment of these T cells was highly dependent on TNF-alpha-derived signals, which also maintained the granuloma structure through preferential effects on uninfected macrophage populations. By characterizing the migration of both innate and adaptive immune cells throughout the process of granuloma development, these studies provide a new perspective on the cellular events involved in mycobacterial containment and escape.

An advection-diffusion-reaction size-structured fish population dynamics model combined with a statistical parameter estimation procedure: application to the Indian ocean skipjack tuna fishery.

PubMed

Faugeras, Blaise; Maury, Olivier

2005-10-01

We develop an advection-diffusion size-structured fish population dynamics model and apply it to simulate the skipjack tuna population in the Indian Ocean. The model is fully spatialized, and movements are parameterized with oceanographical and biological data; thus it naturally reacts to environment changes. We first formulate an initial-boundary value problem and prove existence of a unique positive solution. We then discuss the numerical scheme chosen for the integration of the simulation model. In a second step we address the parameter estimation problem for such a model. With the help of automatic differentiation, we derive the adjoint code which is used to compute the exact gradient of a Bayesian cost function measuring the distance between the outputs of the model and catch and length frequency data. A sensitivity analysis shows that not all parameters can be estimated from the data. Finally twin experiments in which pertubated parameters are recovered from simulated data are successfully conducted.

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

PubMed Central

Watts, Alexander G.; Schlichting, Peter E.; Billerman, Shawn M.; Jesmer, Brett R.; Micheletti, Steven; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Funk, W. Chris; Hapeman, Paul; Muths, Erin; Murphy, Melanie A.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations. PMID:26442094

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watts, Alexander G.; Schlichting, P; Billerman, S; Jesmer, B; Micheletti, S; Fortin, M.-J.; Funk, W.C.; Hapeman, P; Muths, Erin L.; Murphy, M.A.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

Balancing exploration and exploitation in population-based sampling improves fragment-based de novo protein structure prediction.

PubMed

Simoncini, David; Schiex, Thomas; Zhang, Kam Y J

2017-05-01

Conformational search space exploration remains a major bottleneck for protein structure prediction methods. Population-based meta-heuristics typically enable the possibility to control the search dynamics and to tune the balance between local energy minimization and search space exploration. EdaFold is a fragment-based approach that can guide search by periodically updating the probability distribution over the fragment libraries used during model assembly. We implement the EdaFold algorithm as a Rosetta protocol and provide two different probability update policies: a cluster-based variation (EdaRose c ) and an energy-based one (EdaRose en ). We analyze the search dynamics of our new Rosetta protocols and show that EdaRose c is able to provide predictions with lower C αRMSD to the native structure than EdaRose en and Rosetta AbInitio Relax protocol. Our software is freely available as a C++ patch for the Rosetta suite and can be downloaded from http://www.riken.jp/zhangiru/software/. Our protocols can easily be extended in order to create alternative probability update policies and generate new search dynamics. Proteins 2017; 85:852-858. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Coherent structure diffusivity in the edge region of Reversed Field Pinch experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spolaore, M.; Antoni, V.; Spada, E.; Bergsåker, H.; Cavazzana, R.; Drake, J. R.; Martines, E.; Regnoli, G.; Serianni, G.; Vianello, N.

2005-01-01

Coherent structures emerging from the background turbulence have been detected by electrostatic measurements in the edge region of two Reversed Field Pinch experiments, RFX (Padua) and Extrap-T2R (Stockholm). Measurements have been performed by arrays of Langmuir probes which allowed simultaneous measurements of temperature, potential and density to be carried out. These structures have been interpreted as a dynamic balance of dipolar and monopolar vortices, whose relative population are found to depend on the local mean E × B flow shear. The contribution to the anomalous transport of these structures has been investigated and it has been found that the corresponding diffusion coeffcient accounts up to 50% of the total diffusivity. The experimental findings indicate that the diffusion coeffcient associated to the coherent structures depends on the relative population of the two types of vortices and is minimum when the two populations are equal. An interpretative model is proposed to explain this feature.

Multiscale structure in eco-evolutionary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacey, Blake C.

In a complex system, the individual components are neither so tightly coupled or correlated that they can all be treated as a single unit, nor so uncorrelated that they can be approximated as independent entities. Instead, patterns of interdependency lead to structure at multiple scales of organization. Evolution excels at producing such complex structures. In turn, the existence of these complex interrelationships within a biological system affects the evolutionary dynamics of that system. I present a mathematical formalism for multiscale structure, grounded in information theory, which makes these intuitions quantitative, and I show how dynamics defined in terms of population genetics or evolutionary game theory can lead to multiscale organization. For complex systems, "more is different," and I address this from several perspectives. Spatial host--consumer models demonstrate the importance of the structures which can arise due to dynamical pattern formation. Evolutionary game theory reveals the novel effects which can result from multiplayer games, nonlinear payoffs and ecological stochasticity. Replicator dynamics in an environment with mesoscale structure relates to generalized conditionalization rules in probability theory. The idea of natural selection "acting at multiple levels" has been mathematized in a variety of ways, not all of which are equivalent. We will face down the confusion, using the experience developed over the course of this thesis to clarify the situation.

Genomic Differentiation and Demographic Histories of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) Populations

PubMed Central

Damerau, Malte; Matschiner, Michael; Jentoft, Sissel

2017-01-01

Recent developments in the field of genomics have provided new and powerful insights into population structure and dynamics that are essential for the conservation of biological diversity. As a commercially highly valuable species, the yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) is intensely exploited throughout its distribution in tropical oceans around the world, and is currently classified as near threatened. However, conservation efforts for this species have so far been hampered by limited knowledge of its population structure, due to incongruent results of previous investigations. Here, we use whole-genome sequencing in concert with a draft genome assembly to decipher the global population structure of the yellowfin tuna, and to investigate its demographic history. We detect significant differentiation of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna populations as well as the possibility of a third diverged yellowfin tuna group in the Arabian Sea. We further observe evidence for past population expansion as well as asymmetric gene flow from the Indo-Pacific to the Atlantic. PMID:28419285

Local interactions lead to pathogen-driven change to host population dynamics.

PubMed

Boots, Michael; Childs, Dylan; Reuman, Daniel C; Mealor, Michael

2009-10-13

Individuals tend to interact more strongly with nearby individuals or within particular social groups. Recent theoretical advances have demonstrated that these within-population relationships can have fundamental implications for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. In particular, contact networks are crucial to the spread and evolution of disease. However, the theory remains largely untested experimentally. Here, we manipulate habitat viscosity and thereby the frequency of local interactions in an insect-pathogen model system in which the virus had previously been shown to have little effect on host population dynamics. At high viscosity, the pathogen caused the collapse of dominant and otherwise stable host generation cycles. Modeling shows that this collapse can be explained by an increase in the frequency of intracohort interactions relative to intercohort interactions, leading to more disease transmission. Our work emphasizes that spatial structure can subtly mediate intraspecific competition and the effects of natural enemies. A decrease in dispersal in a population may actually (sometimes rather counterintuitively) intensify the effects of parasites. Broadly, because anthropological and environmental change often cause changes in population mixing, our work highlights the potential for dramatic changes in the effects of parasites on host populations.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Population turnover and adaptation in heterogeneous environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, Paulo R. A.; de Oliveira, Viviane M.

2012-02-01

We study adaptive dynamics in a structured population model of asexual individuals which takes into account environmental heterogeneity among the subpopulations. The key purpose of the present work is to address how population turnovers, i.e. extinction events followed by recolonization, affect the rate of fixation of advantageous mutations. This model is a generalization of our previous model to address the interplay between environmental correlation and evolutionary forces on the adaptive process. The incorporation of population turnovers into the model enables us to make a direct correspondence between the model and host-parasite dynamics (epidemiological models). Strikingly, contrary to the intuitive and usual deleterious effect associated to extinction events, it is observed that population turnovers can in fact speed up adaptation as heterogeneity rises. On the other side, in nearly homogeneous population turnovers have a neutral effect on fixation rates, but a detrimental outcome is also achieved when extinction events become very common. In resume, population turnover outcomes on fixation rates of advantageous mutations are strongly influenced by the selective correlation among the subpopulations (demes).

Circular dichroism and site-directed spin labeling reveal structural and dynamical features of high-pressure states of myoglobin

PubMed Central

Lerch, Michael T.; Horwitz, Joseph; McCoy, John; Hubbell, Wayne L.

2013-01-01

Excited states of proteins may play important roles in function, yet are difficult to study spectroscopically because of their sparse population. High hydrostatic pressure increases the equilibrium population of excited states, enabling their characterization [Akasaka K (2003) Biochemistry 42:10875–85]. High-pressure site-directed spin-labeling EPR (SDSL-EPR) was developed recently to map the site-specific structure and dynamics of excited states populated by pressure. To monitor global secondary structure content by circular dichroism (CD) at high pressure, a modified optical cell using a custom MgF2 window with a reduced aperture is introduced. Here, a combination of SDSL-EPR and CD is used to map reversible structural transitions in holomyoglobin and apomyoglobin (apoMb) as a function of applied pressure up to 2 kbar. CD shows that the high-pressure excited state of apoMb at pH 6 has helical content identical to that of native apoMb, but reversible changes reflecting the appearance of a conformational ensemble are observed by SDSL-EPR, suggesting a helical topology that fluctuates slowly on the EPR time scale. Although the high-pressure state of apoMb at pH 6 has been referred to as a molten globule, the data presented here reveal significant differences from the well-characterized pH 4.1 molten globule of apoMb. Pressure-populated states of both holomyoglobin and apoMb at pH 4.1 have significantly less helical structure, and for the latter, that may correspond to a transient folding intermediate. PMID:24248390

Chapter 6: Research needs for the conservation of the cactus ferruginous pygmy-owl in Arizona

Treesearch

Jean-Luc E. Cartron; W. Scott Richardson; Deborah M. Finch; David J. Krueper

2000-01-01

In this chapter, we describe research needs for the conservation of the cactus ferruginous pygmy-owl (Glaucidium brasilianum cactorum) in Arizona. Estimates of population size, structure, and dynamics, as well as demographic data, are needed for the recovery team to formulate sound population objectives. Habitat loss due to residential development...

Modulation of Temporal Precision in Thalamic Population Responses to Natural Visual Stimuli

PubMed Central

Desbordes, Gaëlle; Jin, Jianzhong; Alonso, Jose-Manuel; Stanley, Garrett B.

2010-01-01

Natural visual stimuli have highly structured spatial and temporal properties which influence the way visual information is encoded in the visual pathway. In response to natural scene stimuli, neurons in the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) are temporally precise – on a time scale of 10–25 ms – both within single cells and across cells within a population. This time scale, established by non stimulus-driven elements of neuronal firing, is significantly shorter than that of natural scenes, yet is critical for the neural representation of the spatial and temporal structure of the scene. Here, a generalized linear model (GLM) that combines stimulus-driven elements with spike-history dependence associated with intrinsic cellular dynamics is shown to predict the fine timing precision of LGN responses to natural scene stimuli, the corresponding correlation structure across nearby neurons in the population, and the continuous modulation of spike timing precision and latency across neurons. A single model captured the experimentally observed neural response, across different levels of contrasts and different classes of visual stimuli, through interactions between the stimulus correlation structure and the nonlinearity in spike generation and spike history dependence. Given the sensitivity of the thalamocortical synapse to closely timed spikes and the importance of fine timing precision for the faithful representation of natural scenes, the modulation of thalamic population timing over these time scales is likely important for cortical representations of the dynamic natural visual environment. PMID:21151356

Predation Risk Shapes Social Networks in Fission-Fusion Populations

PubMed Central

Kelley, Jennifer L.; Morrell, Lesley J.; Inskip, Chloe; Krause, Jens; Croft, Darren P.

2011-01-01

Predation risk is often associated with group formation in prey, but recent advances in methods for analysing the social structure of animal societies make it possible to quantify the effects of risk on the complex dynamics of spatial and temporal organisation. In this paper we use social network analysis to investigate the impact of variation in predation risk on the social structure of guppy shoals and the frequency and duration of shoal splitting (fission) and merging (fusion) events. Our analyses revealed that variation in the level of predation risk was associated with divergent social dynamics, with fish in high-risk populations displaying a greater number of associations with overall greater strength and connectedness than those from low-risk sites. Temporal patterns of organisation also differed according to predation risk, with fission events more likely to occur over two short time periods (5 minutes and 20 minutes) in low-predation fish and over longer time scales (>1.5 hours) in high-predation fish. Our findings suggest that predation risk influences the fine-scale social structure of prey populations and that the temporal aspects of organisation play a key role in defining social systems. PMID:21912627

Self-organization of bacterial communities against environmental pH variation: Controlled chemotactic motility arranges cell population structures in biofilms

PubMed Central

Nakayama, Madoka; Shoji, Wataru

2017-01-01

As with many living organisms, bacteria often live on the surface of solids, such as foods, organisms, buildings and soil. Compared with dispersive behavior in liquid, bacteria on surface environment exhibit significantly restricted mobility. They have access to only limited resources and cannot be liberated from the changing environment. Accordingly, appropriate collective strategies are necessarily required for long-term growth and survival. However, in spite of our deepening knowledge of the structure and characteristics of individual cells, strategic self-organizing dynamics of their community is poorly understood and therefore not yet predictable. Here, we report a morphological change in Bacillus subtilis biofilms due to environmental pH variations, and present a mathematical model for the macroscopic spatio-temporal dynamics. We show that an environmental pH shift transforms colony morphology on hard agar media from notched ‘volcano-like’ to round and front-elevated ‘crater-like’. We discover that a pH-dependent dose-response relationship between nutritional resource level and quantitative bacterial motility at the population level plays a central role in the mechanism of the spatio-temporal cell population structure design in biofilms. PMID:28253348

Self-organization of bacterial communities against environmental pH variation: Controlled chemotactic motility arranges cell population structures in biofilms.

PubMed

Tasaki, Sohei; Nakayama, Madoka; Shoji, Wataru

2017-01-01

As with many living organisms, bacteria often live on the surface of solids, such as foods, organisms, buildings and soil. Compared with dispersive behavior in liquid, bacteria on surface environment exhibit significantly restricted mobility. They have access to only limited resources and cannot be liberated from the changing environment. Accordingly, appropriate collective strategies are necessarily required for long-term growth and survival. However, in spite of our deepening knowledge of the structure and characteristics of individual cells, strategic self-organizing dynamics of their community is poorly understood and therefore not yet predictable. Here, we report a morphological change in Bacillus subtilis biofilms due to environmental pH variations, and present a mathematical model for the macroscopic spatio-temporal dynamics. We show that an environmental pH shift transforms colony morphology on hard agar media from notched 'volcano-like' to round and front-elevated 'crater-like'. We discover that a pH-dependent dose-response relationship between nutritional resource level and quantitative bacterial motility at the population level plays a central role in the mechanism of the spatio-temporal cell population structure design in biofilms.

Dynamic portrait of the region occupied by the Hungaria Asteroids: The influence of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correa-Otto, J. A.; Cañada-Assandri, M.

2018-06-01

The region occupied by the Hungaria asteroids has a high dynamical complexity. In this paper, we analyse the main dynamic structures and their influence on the known asteroids through the construction of maps of initial conditions. We evolve a set of test particles placed on a perfectly rectangular grid of initial conditions during 3 Myr under the gravitational influence of the Sun and eight planets, from Mercury to Neptune. Moreover, we use the method MEGNO in order to obtain a complete dynamical portrait of the region. A comparison of our maps with the distribution of real objects allows us to detect the main dynamical mechanisms acting in the domain under study such as mean-motion and secular resonances. Our main results is the existence of a small area inside a stable region where are placed the Hungaria asteroids. We found that the influence of Mars has an important role for the dynamic structure of the region, defining the limits for this population of asteroids. Our result is in agreement with previous studies, which have indicated the importance of the eccentricity of Mars for the stability of Hungaria asteroids. However, we found that the secular resonance resulting from the precession of perihelion due to a coupling with that of Jupiter proposed as limit for the Hungaria region could not be determinant for this population of asteroids.

A Conceptual Model of Riparian Forest Response to Channel Abandonment on Meandering Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Hayden, M. K.; Battles, J. J.; Piegay, H.; Dufour, S.; Fremier, A. K.

2008-12-01

On alluvial rivers, hydrogeomorphic regimes exert a primary control on the regeneration of pioneer riparian forest stands and thus their composition and age structure. Seasonal flow patterns provide the necessary conditions for recruitment, and channel migration drives patterns of forest stand dynamics. To date, studies of pioneer riparian forest structure have focused primarily on point bar habitats, where woody vegetation typically recruits with decadal frequency in even-aged bands parallel to the river margin. However, there are indications that other recruitment pathways exist and can be important from a population and conservation perspective. On floodplains where channel migration occurs as infrequent cutoff or avulsion events, the geometry and position of the old channel relative to the new one determines rates and patterns of sedimentation and flood frequency. These conditions provide a brief opportunity for forest recruitment, and geomorphic evolution of the former channel habitat in turn influences forest dynamics. The population implications of this alternative forest regeneration pathway depend on the temporal dynamics of channel abandonment versus the rate of lateral channel migration. Preliminary analysis indicates that the geographic scope of this ecogeomorphological process is sizable. Along the Sacramento River (CA) and Ain River (France), for example, cottonwood-dominated stands associated with abandoned channels tend to be less frequent in number (38% of all stands) but larger in area (accounting for 53% of all forest area) relative to forest stands associated with laterally migrating point bars. Dendrochronological analysis confirms that tree ages in floodplain stands corresponds to the first decade after channel abandonment. These data indicate that changes to the rate and scale of channel abandonment due to human and climatic alterations to the flow regime will likely influence riparian corridor-wide tree population structure and forest dynamics.

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE PAGES

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew; ...

2015-09-30

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Altogether, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Together, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Altogether, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Epidemic Process over the Commute Network in a Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Yashima, Kenta; Sasaki, Akira

2014-01-01

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival. PMID:24905831

Shell productivity of the large benthic foraminifer Baculogypsina sphaerulata, based on the population dynamics in a tropical reef environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujita, Kazuhiko; Otomaru, Maki; Lopati, Paeniu; Hosono, Takashi; Kayanne, Hajime

2016-03-01

Carbonate production by large benthic foraminifers is sometimes comparable to that of corals and coralline algae, and contributes to sedimentation on reef islands and beaches in the tropical Pacific. Population dynamic data, such as population density and size structure (size-frequency distribution), are vital for an accurate estimation of shell production of foraminifers. However, previous production estimates in tropical environments were based on a limited sampling period with no consideration of seasonality. In addition, no comparisons were made of various estimation methods to determine more accurate estimates. Here we present the annual gross shell production rate of Baculogypsina sphaerulata, estimated based on population dynamics studied over a 2-yr period on an ocean reef flat of Funafuti Atoll (Tuvalu, tropical South Pacific). The population density of B. sphaerulata increased from January to March, when northwest winds predominated and the study site was on the leeward side of reef islands, compared to other seasons when southeast trade winds predominated and the study site was on the windward side. This result suggested that wind-driven flows controlled the population density at the study site. The B. sphaerulata population had a relatively stationary size-frequency distribution throughout the study period, indicating no definite intensive reproductive period in the tropical population. Four methods were applied to estimate the annual gross shell production rates of B. sphaerulata. The production rates estimated by three of the four methods (using monthly biomass, life tables and growth increment rates) were in the order of hundreds of g CaCO3 m-2 yr-1 or cm-3 m-2 yr-1, and the simple method using turnover rates overestimated the values. This study suggests that seasonal surveys should be undertaken of population density and size structure as these can produce more accurate estimates of shell productivity of large benthic foraminifers.

Population responses to environmental change in a tropical ant: the interaction of spatial and temporal dynamics.

PubMed

Jackson, Doug; Vandermeer, John; Perfecto, Ivette; Philpott, Stacy M

2014-01-01

Spatial structure can have a profound, but often underappreciated, effect on the temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Here we report on a counterintuitive increase in the population of a tree-nesting ant, Azteca sericeasur, in response to a drastic reduction in the number of potential nesting sites. This surprising result is comprehensible when viewed in the context of the self-organized spatial dynamics of the ants and their effect on the ants' dispersal-limited natural enemies. Approximately 30% of the trees in the study site, a coffee agroecosystem in southern Mexico, were pruned or felled over a two-year period, and yet the abundance of the ant nests more than doubled over the seven-year study. Throughout the transition, the spatial distribution of the ants maintained a power-law distribution - a signal of spatial self organization - but the local clustering of the nests was reduced post-pruning. A cellular automata model incorporating the changed spatial structure of the ants and the resulting partial escape from antagonists reproduced the observed increase in abundance, highlighting how self-organized spatial dynamics can profoundly influence the responses of ecosystems to perturbations.

Population Responses to Environmental Change in a Tropical Ant: The Interaction of Spatial and Temporal Dynamics

PubMed Central

Jackson, Doug; Vandermeer, John; Perfecto, Ivette; Philpott, Stacy M.

2014-01-01

Spatial structure can have a profound, but often underappreciated, effect on the temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Here we report on a counterintuitive increase in the population of a tree-nesting ant, Azteca sericeasur, in response to a drastic reduction in the number of potential nesting sites. This surprising result is comprehensible when viewed in the context of the self-organized spatial dynamics of the ants and their effect on the ants’ dispersal-limited natural enemies. Approximately 30% of the trees in the study site, a coffee agroecosystem in southern Mexico, were pruned or felled over a two-year period, and yet the abundance of the ant nests more than doubled over the seven-year study. Throughout the transition, the spatial distribution of the ants maintained a power-law distribution – a signal of spatial self organization – but the local clustering of the nests was reduced post-pruning. A cellular automata model incorporating the changed spatial structure of the ants and the resulting partial escape from antagonists reproduced the observed increase in abundance, highlighting how self-organized spatial dynamics can profoundly influence the responses of ecosystems to perturbations. PMID:24842117

Management of a Single Species Fishery with Stage Structure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kar, T. K.; Pahari, U. K.; Chaudhuri, K. S.

2004-01-01

A dynamic model for a single species fishery with stage structure is proposed using taxation as a control instrument to protect the fish population from overexploitation. Criteria for local stability and global stability of the system are derived. The optimal tax policy is established by using Pontryagin's maximal principle. By numerical…

Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

2017-02-01

In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

A simulation analysis to characterize the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour on contact networks.

PubMed

Perisic, Ana; Bauch, Chris T

2009-05-28

Human behavior influences infectious disease transmission, and numerous "prevalence-behavior" models have analyzed this interplay. These previous analyses assumed homogeneously mixing populations without spatial or social structure. However, spatial and social heterogeneity are known to significantly impact transmission dynamics and are particularly relevant for certain diseases. Previous work has demonstrated that social contact structure can change the individual incentive to vaccinate, thus enabling eradication of a disease under a voluntary vaccination policy when the corresponding homogeneous mixing model predicts that eradication is impossible due to free rider effects. Here, we extend this work and characterize the range of possible behavior-prevalence dynamics on a network. We simulate transmission of a vaccine-preventable infection through a random, static contact network. Individuals choose whether or not to vaccinate on any given day according to perceived risks of vaccination and infection. We find three possible outcomes for behavior-prevalence dynamics on this type of network: small final number vaccinated and final epidemic size (due to rapid control through voluntary ring vaccination); large final number vaccinated and significant final epidemic size (due to imperfect voluntary ring vaccination), and little or no vaccination and large final epidemic size (corresponding to little or no voluntary ring vaccination). We also show that the social contact structure enables eradication under a broad range of assumptions, except when vaccine risk is sufficiently high, the disease risk is sufficiently low, or individuals vaccinate too late for the vaccine to be effective. For populations where infection can spread only through social contact network, relatively small differences in parameter values relating to perceived risk or vaccination behavior at the individual level can translate into large differences in population-level outcomes such as final size and final number vaccinated. The qualitative outcome of rational, self interested behaviour under a voluntary vaccination policy can vary substantially depending on interactions between social contact structure, perceived vaccine and disease risks, and the way that individual vaccination decision-making is modelled.

A simulation analysis to characterize the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour on contact networks

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Human behavior influences infectious disease transmission, and numerous "prevalence-behavior" models have analyzed this interplay. These previous analyses assumed homogeneously mixing populations without spatial or social structure. However, spatial and social heterogeneity are known to significantly impact transmission dynamics and are particularly relevant for certain diseases. Previous work has demonstrated that social contact structure can change the individual incentive to vaccinate, thus enabling eradication of a disease under a voluntary vaccination policy when the corresponding homogeneous mixing model predicts that eradication is impossible due to free rider effects. Here, we extend this work and characterize the range of possible behavior-prevalence dynamics on a network. Methods We simulate transmission of a vaccine-prevetable infection through a random, static contact network. Individuals choose whether or not to vaccinate on any given day according to perceived risks of vaccination and infection. Results We find three possible outcomes for behavior-prevalence dynamics on this type of network: small final number vaccinated and final epidemic size (due to rapid control through voluntary ring vaccination); large final number vaccinated and significant final epidemic size (due to imperfect voluntary ring vaccination), and little or no vaccination and large final epidemic size (corresponding to little or no voluntary ring vaccination). We also show that the social contact structure enables eradication under a broad range of assumptions, except when vaccine risk is sufficiently high, the disease risk is sufficiently low, or individuals vaccinate too late for the vaccine to be effective. Conclusion For populations where infection can spread only through social contact network, relatively small differences in parameter values relating to perceived risk or vaccination behavior at the individual level can translate into large differences in population-level outcomes such as final size and final number vaccinated. The qualitative outcome of rational, self interested behaviour under a voluntary vaccination policy can vary substantially depending on interactions between social contact structure, perceived vaccine and disease risks, and the way that individual vaccination decision-making is modelled. PMID:19476616

Dynamics of a Stochastic Predator-Prey Model with Stage Structure for Predator and Holling Type II Functional Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2018-01-01

In this paper, we develop and study a stochastic predator-prey model with stage structure for predator and Holling type II functional response. First of all, by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solutions to the model. Then, we obtain sufficient conditions for extinction of the predator populations in two cases, that is, the first case is that the prey population survival and the predator populations extinction; the second case is that all the prey and predator populations extinction. The existence of a stationary distribution implies stochastic weak stability. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the analytical results.

Dynamics of a Stochastic Predator-Prey Model with Stage Structure for Predator and Holling Type II Functional Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2018-06-01

In this paper, we develop and study a stochastic predator-prey model with stage structure for predator and Holling type II functional response. First of all, by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solutions to the model. Then, we obtain sufficient conditions for extinction of the predator populations in two cases, that is, the first case is that the prey population survival and the predator populations extinction; the second case is that all the prey and predator populations extinction. The existence of a stationary distribution implies stochastic weak stability. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the analytical results.

Molecular population dynamics of DNA structures in a bcl-2 promoter sequence is regulated by small molecules and the transcription factor hnRNP LL.

PubMed

Cui, Yunxi; Koirala, Deepak; Kang, HyunJin; Dhakal, Soma; Yangyuoru, Philip; Hurley, Laurence H; Mao, Hanbin

2014-05-01

Minute difference in free energy change of unfolding among structures in an oligonucleotide sequence can lead to a complex population equilibrium, which is rather challenging for ensemble techniques to decipher. Herein, we introduce a new method, molecular population dynamics (MPD), to describe the intricate equilibrium among non-B deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) structures. Using mechanical unfolding in laser tweezers, we identified six DNA species in a cytosine (C)-rich bcl-2 promoter sequence. Population patterns of these species with and without a small molecule (IMC-76 or IMC-48) or the transcription factor hnRNP LL are compared to reveal the MPD of different species. With a pattern recognition algorithm, we found that IMC-48 and hnRNP LL share 80% similarity in stabilizing i-motifs with 60 s incubation. In contrast, IMC-76 demonstrates an opposite behavior, preferring flexible DNA hairpins. With 120-180 s incubation, IMC-48 and hnRNP LL destabilize i-motifs, which has been previously proposed to activate bcl-2 transcriptions. These results provide strong support, from the population equilibrium perspective, that small molecules and hnRNP LL can modulate bcl-2 transcription through interaction with i-motifs. The excellent agreement with biochemical results firmly validates the MPD analyses, which, we expect, can be widely applicable to investigate complex equilibrium of biomacromolecules. © 2014 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press [on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research].

Antagonistic interactions are sufficient to explain self-assemblage of bacterial communities in a homogeneous environment: a computational modeling approach

PubMed Central

Zapién-Campos, Román; Olmedo-Álvarez, Gabriela; Santillán, Moisés

2015-01-01

Most of the studies in Ecology have been devoted to analyzing the effects the environment has on individuals, populations, and communities, thus neglecting the effects of biotic interactions on the system dynamics. In the present work we study the structure of bacterial communities in the oligotrophic shallow water system of Churince, Cuatro Cienegas, Mexico. Since the physicochemical conditions of this water system are homogeneous and quite stable in time, it is an excellent candidate to study how biotic factors influence the structure of bacterial communities. In a previous study, the binary antagonistic interactions of 78 bacterial strains, isolated from Churince, were experimentally determined. We employ these data to develop a computer algorithm to simulate growth experiments in a cellular grid representing the pond. Remarkably, in our model, the dynamics of all the simulated bacterial populations is determined solely by antagonistic interactions. Our results indicate that all bacterial strains (even those that are antagonized by many other bacteria) survive in the long term, and that the underlying mechanism is the formation of bacterial community patches. Patches corresponding to less antagonistic and highly susceptible strains are consistently isolated from the highly-antagonistic bacterial colonies by patches of neutral strains. These results concur with the observed features of the bacterial community structure previously reported. Finally, we study how our findings depend on factors like initial population size, differential population growth rates, homogeneous population death rates, and enhanced bacterial diffusion. PMID:26052318

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

2018-03-01

Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

Linking body mass and group dynamics in an obligate cooperative breeder.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Bateman, Andrew W; English, Sinead; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2014-11-01

Social and environmental factors influence key life-history processes and population dynamics by affecting fitness-related phenotypic traits such as body mass. The role of body mass is particularly pronounced in cooperative breeders due to variation in social status and consequent variation in access to resources. Investigating the mechanisms underlying variation in body mass and its demographic consequences can help elucidate how social and environmental factors affect the dynamics of cooperatively breeding populations. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of individual variation in body mass on the temporal dynamics of group size and structure of a cooperatively breeding mongoose, the Kalahari meerkat, Suricata suricatta. First, we investigate how body mass interacts with social (dominance status and number of helpers) and environmental (rainfall and season) factors to influence key life-history processes (survival, growth, emigration and reproduction) in female meerkats. Next, using an individual-based population model, we show that the models explicitly including individual variation in body mass predict group dynamics better than those ignoring this morphological trait. Body mass influences group dynamics mainly through its effects on helper emigration and dominant reproduction. Rainfall has a trait-mediated, destabilizing effect on group dynamics, whereas the number of helpers has a direct and stabilizing effect. Counteracting effects of number of helpers on different demographic rates, despite generating temporal fluctuations, stabilizes group dynamics in the long term. Our study demonstrates that social and environmental factors interact to produce individual variation in body mass and accounting for this variation helps to explain group dynamics in this cooperatively breeding population. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

2017-07-07

We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom

2006-02-28

Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations.

Temporal genetic analysis of the endangered tidewater goby: extinction-colonization dynamics or drift in isolation?

PubMed

Kinziger, Andrew P; Hellmair, Michael; McCraney, W Tyler; Jacobs, David K; Goldsmith, Greg

2015-11-01

Extinction and colonization dynamics are critical to understanding the evolution and conservation of metapopulations. However, traditional field studies of extinction-colonization are potentially fraught with detection bias and have rarely been validated. Here, we provide a comparison of molecular and field-based approaches for assessment of the extinction-colonization dynamics of tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi) in northern California. Our analysis of temporal genetic variation across 14 northern California tidewater goby populations failed to recover genetic change expected with extinction-colonization cycles. Similarly, analysis of site occupancy data from field studies (94 sites) indicated that extinction and colonization are very infrequent for our study populations. Comparison of the approaches indicated field data were subject to imperfect detection, and falsely implied extinction-colonization cycles in several instances. For northern California populations of tidewater goby, we interpret the strong genetic differentiation between populations and high degree of within-site temporal stability as consistent with a model of drift in the absence of migration, at least over the past 20-30 years. Our findings show that tidewater goby exhibit different population structures across their geographic range (extinction-colonization dynamics in the south vs. drift in isolation in the north). For northern populations, natural dispersal is too infrequent to be considered a viable approach for recolonizing extirpated populations, suggesting that species recovery will likely depend on artificial translocation in this region. More broadly, this work illustrates that temporal genetic analysis can be used in combination with field data to strengthen inference of extinction-colonization dynamics or as a stand-alone tool when field data are lacking. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Resource-driven changes to host population stability alter the evolution of virulence and transmission.

PubMed

Hite, Jessica L; Cressler, Clayton E

2018-05-05

What drives the evolution of parasite life-history traits? Recent studies suggest that linking within- and between-host processes can provide key insight into both disease dynamics and parasite evolution. Still, it remains difficult to understand how to pinpoint the critical factors connecting these cross-scale feedbacks, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions; many natural host populations inherently fluctuate and parasites themselves can strongly alter the stability of host populations. Here, we develop a general model framework that mechanistically links resources to parasite evolution across a gradient of stable and unstable conditions. First, we dynamically link resources and between-host processes (host density, stability, transmission) to virulence evolution, using a 'non-nested' model. Then, we consider a 'nested' model where population-level processes (transmission and virulence) depend on resource-driven changes to individual-level (within-host) processes (energetics, immune function, parasite production). Contrary to 'non-nested' model predictions, the 'nested' model reveals complex effects of host population dynamics on parasite evolution, including regions of evolutionary bistability; evolution can push parasites towards strongly or weakly stabilizing strategies. This bistability results from dynamic feedbacks between resource-driven changes to host density, host immune function and parasite production. Together, these results highlight how cross-scale feedbacks can provide key insights into the structuring role of parasites and parasite evolution.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Conservation genetics of managed ungulate populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.

1993-01-01

Natural populations of many species are increasingly impacted by human activities. Perturbations are particularly pronunced for large ungulates due in part to sport and commercial harvest, to reductions and fragmentation of native habitat, and as the result of reintroductions. These perturbations affect population size, sex and age composition, and population breeding structure, and as a consequence affect the levels and partitioning of genetic variation. Three case histories highlighting long-term ecological genetic research on mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817), white-tailed deer O. virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), and Alpine ibex Capra i. ibex Linnaeus, 1758 are presented. Joint examinations of population ecological and genetic data from several populations of each species reveal: (1) that populations are not in genetic equilibrium, but that allele frequencies and heterozygosity change dramatically over time and among cohorts produced in successive years, (2) populations are genetically structured over short and large geographic distances reflecting local breeding structure and patterns of gene flow, respectively; however, this structure is quite dynamic over time, due in part to population exploitation, and (3) restocking programs are often undertaken with small numbers of founding individuals resulting in dramatic declines in levels of genetic variability and increasing levels of genetic differentiation among populations due to genetic drift. Genetic characteristics have and will continue to provide valuable indirect sources of information relating enviromental and human perturbations to changes in population processes.

Population structuring of multi-copy, antigen-encoding genes in Plasmodium falciparum

PubMed Central

Artzy-Randrup, Yael; Rorick, Mary M; Day, Karen; Chen, Donald; Dobson, Andrew P; Pascual, Mercedes

2012-01-01

The coexistence of multiple independently circulating strains in pathogen populations that undergo sexual recombination is a central question of epidemiology with profound implications for control. An agent-based model is developed that extends earlier ‘strain theory’ by addressing the var gene family of Plasmodium falciparum. The model explicitly considers the extensive diversity of multi-copy genes that undergo antigenic variation via sequential, mutually exclusive expression. It tracks the dynamics of all unique var repertoires in a population of hosts, and shows that even under high levels of sexual recombination, strain competition mediated through cross-immunity structures the parasite population into a subset of coexisting dominant repertoires of var genes whose degree of antigenic overlap depends on transmission intensity. Empirical comparison of patterns of genetic variation at antigenic and neutral sites supports this role for immune selection in structuring parasite diversity. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00093.001 PMID:23251784

Four types of interference competition and their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities.

PubMed

Zhang, Lai; Andersen, Ken H; Dieckmann, Ulf; Brännström, Åke

2015-09-07

We investigate how four types of interference competition - which alternatively affect foraging, metabolism, survival, and reproduction - impact the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations. Even though all four types of interference competition reduce population biomass, interference competition at intermediate intensity sometimes significantly increases the abundance of adult individuals and the population׳s reproduction rate. We find that foraging and metabolic interference evolutionarily favor smaller maturation size when interference is weak and larger maturation size when interference is strong. The evolutionary response to survival interference and reproductive interference is always larger maturation size. We also investigate how the four types of interference competition impact the evolutionary dynamics and resultant diversity and trophic structure of size-structured communities. Like other types of trait-mediated competition, all four types of interference competition can induce disruptive selection and thus promote initial diversification. Even though foraging interference and reproductive interference are more potent in promoting initial diversification, they catalyze the formation of diverse communities with complex trophic structure only at high levels of interference intensity. By contrast, survival interference does so already at intermediate levels, while reproductive interference can only support relatively smaller communities with simpler trophic structure. Taken together, our results show how the type and intensity of interference competition jointly affect coexistence patterns in structured population models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Annabel L

2018-01-01

Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

The Structure and Kinematics of Little Blue Spheroid Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffett, Amanda J.; Phillipps, Steven; Robotham, Aaron; Driver, Simon; Bremer, Malcolm; GAMA survey team, SAMI survey team

2018-01-01

A population of blue, morphologically early-type galaxies, dubbed "Little Blue Spheroids" (LBSs), has been identified as a significant contributor to the low redshift galaxy population in the GAMA survey. Using deep, high-resolution optical imaging from KiDS and the new Bayesian, two-dimensional galaxy profile modelling code PROFIT, we examine the detailed structural characteristics of LBSs, including low surface brightness components not detected in previous SDSS imaging. We find that these LBS galaxies combine features typical of early-type and late-type populations, with structural properties similar to other low-mass early types and star formation rates similar to low-mass late types. We further consider the environments and SAMI-derived IFU kinematics of LBSs in order to investigate the conditions of their formation and the current state of their dynamical evolution.

Stand structure and dynamics of sand pine differ between the Florida panhandle and peninsula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drewa, P.B.; Platt, W.J.; Kwit, C.; Doyle, T.W.

2008-01-01

Size and age structures of stand populations of numerous tree species exhibit uneven or reverse J-distributions that can persist after non-catastrophic disturbance, especially windstorms. Among disjunct populations of conspecific trees, alternative distributions are also possible and may be attributed to more localized variation in disturbance. Regional differences in structure and demography among disjunct populations of sand pine (Pinus clausa (Chapm. ex Engelm.) Vasey ex Sarg.) in the Florida panhandle and peninsula may result from variation in hurricane regimes associated with each of these populations. We measured size, age, and growth rates of trees from panhandle and peninsula populations and then compiled size and age class distributions. We also characterized hurricanes in both regions over the past century. Size and age structures of panhandle populations were unevenly distributed and exhibited continuous recruitment; peninsula populations were evenly sized and aged and exhibited only periodic recruitment. Since hurricane regimes were similar between regions, historical fire regimes may have been responsible for regional differences in structure of sand pine populations. We hypothesize that fires were locally nonexistent in coastal panhandle populations, while periodic high intensity fires occurred in peninsula populations over the past century. Such differences in local fire regimes could have resulted in the absence of hurricane effects in the peninsula. Increased intensity of hurricanes in the panhandle and current fire suppression patterns in the peninsula may shift characteristics of sand pine stands in both regions. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Rapid evolution of hosts begets species diversity at the cost of intraspecific diversity.

PubMed

Frickel, Jens; Theodosiou, Loukas; Becks, Lutz

2017-10-17

Ecosystems are complex food webs in which multiple species interact and ecological and evolutionary processes continuously shape populations and communities. Previous studies on eco-evolutionary dynamics have shown that the presence of intraspecific diversity affects community structure and function, and that eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics can be an important driver for its maintenance. Within communities, feedbacks are, however, often indirect, and they can feed back over many generations. Here, we studied eco-evolutionary feedbacks in evolving communities over many generations and compared two-species systems (virus-host and prey-predator) with a more complex three-species system (virus-host-predator). Both indirect density- and trait-mediated effects drove the dynamics in the complex system, where host-virus coevolution facilitated coexistence of predator and virus, and where coexistence, in return, lowered intraspecific diversity of the host population. Furthermore, ecological and evolutionary dynamics were significantly altered in the three-species system compared with the two-species systems. We found that the predator slowed host-virus coevolution in the complex system and that the virus' effect on the overall population dynamics was negligible when the three species coexisted. Overall, we show that a detailed understanding of the mechanism driving eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics is necessary for explaining trait and species diversity in communities, even in communities with only three species.

Day-to-Day Dynamics of Commensal Escherichia coli in Zimbabwean Cows Evidence Temporal Fluctuations within a Host-Specific Population Structure.

PubMed

Massot, Méril; Couffignal, Camille; Clermont, Olivier; D'Humières, Camille; Chatel, Jérémie; Plault, Nicolas; Andremont, Antoine; Caron, Alexandre; Mentré, France; Denamur, Erick

2017-07-01

To get insights into the temporal pattern of commensal Escherichia coli populations, we sampled the feces of four healthy cows from the same herd in the Hwange District of Zimbabwe daily over 25 days. The cows had not received antibiotic treatment during the previous 3 months. We performed viable E. coli counts and characterized the 326 isolates originating from the 98 stool samples at a clonal level, screened them for stx and eae genes, and tested them for their antibiotic susceptibilities. We observed that E. coli counts and dominant clones were different among cows, and very few clones were shared. No clone was shared by three or four cows. Clone richness and evenness were not different between cows. Within each host, the variability in the E. coli count was evidenced between days, and no clone was found to be dominant during the entire sampling period, suggesting the existence of clonal interference. Dominant clones tended to persist longer than subdominant ones and were mainly from phylogenetic groups A and B1. Five E. coli clones were found to contain both the stx 1 and stx 2 genes, representing 6.3% of the studied isolates. All cows harbored at least one Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) strain. Resistance to tetracycline, penicillins, trimethoprim, and sulfonamides was rare and observed in three clones that were shed at low levels in two cows. This study highlights the fact that the commensal E. coli population, including the STEC population, is host specific, is highly dynamic over a short time frame, and rarely carries antibiotic resistance determinants in the absence of antibiotic treatment. IMPORTANCE The literature about the dynamics of commensal Escherichia coli populations is very scarce. Over 25 days, we followed the total E. coli counts daily and characterized the sampled clones in the feces of four cows from the same herd living in the Hwange District of Zimbabwe. This study deals with the day-to-day dynamics of both quantitative and qualitative aspects of E. coli commensal populations, with a focus on both Shiga toxin-producing E. coli and antibiotic-resistant E. coli strains. We show that the structure of these commensal populations was highly specific to the host, even though the cows ate and roamed together, and was highly dynamic between days. Such data are of importance to understand the ecological forces that drive the dynamics of the emergence of E. coli clones of particular interest within the gastrointestinal tract and their transmission between hosts. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Quantitative sampling of conformational heterogeneity of a DNA hairpin using molecular dynamics simulations and ultrafast fluorescence spectroscopy.

PubMed

Voltz, Karine; Léonard, Jérémie; Touceda, Patricia Tourón; Conyard, Jamie; Chaker, Ziyad; Dejaegere, Annick; Godet, Julien; Mély, Yves; Haacke, Stefan; Stote, Roland H

2016-04-20

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and time resolved fluorescence (TRF) spectroscopy were combined to quantitatively describe the conformational landscape of the DNA primary binding sequence (PBS) of the HIV-1 genome, a short hairpin targeted by retroviral nucleocapsid proteins implicated in the viral reverse transcription. Three 2-aminopurine (2AP) labeled PBS constructs were studied. For each variant, the complete distribution of fluorescence lifetimes covering 5 orders of magnitude in timescale was measured and the populations of conformers experimentally observed to undergo static quenching were quantified. A binary quantification permitted the comparison of populations from experimental lifetime amplitudes to populations of aromatically stacked 2AP conformers obtained from simulation. Both populations agreed well, supporting the general assumption that quenching of 2AP fluorescence results from pi-stacking interactions with neighboring nucleobases and demonstrating the success of the proposed methodology for the combined analysis of TRF and MD data. Cluster analysis of the latter further identified predominant conformations that were consistent with the fluorescence decay times and amplitudes, providing a structure-based rationalization for the wide range of fluorescence lifetimes. Finally, the simulations provided evidence of local structural perturbations induced by 2AP. The approach presented is a general tool to investigate fine structural heterogeneity in nucleic acid and nucleoprotein assemblies. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Genetic structuring in a relictual population of screaming hairy armadillo (Chaetophractus vellerosus) in Argentina revealed by a set of novel microsatellite loci.

PubMed

Nardelli, Maximiliano; Ibáñez, Ezequiel Alejandro; Dobler, Dara; Justy, Fabienne; Delsuc, Frédéric; Abba, Agustín Manuel; Cassini, Marcelo Hernán; Túnez, Juan Ignacio

2016-08-01

The screaming hairy armadillo (Chaetophractus vellerosus) is a mammal species containing disjunct and isolated populations. In order to assess the effect of habitat fragmentation and geographic isolation, we developed seven new microsatellite loci isolated from low-coverage genome shotgun sequencing data for this species. Among these loci, six microsatellites were found to be polymorphic with 8-26 alleles per locus detected across 69 samples analyzed from a relictual population of the species located in the northeast of the Buenos Aires Province (Argentina). Mean allelic richness and polymorphic information content were 15 and 0.75, with observed and expected heterozygosities ranging from 0.40 to 0.67 and 0.58 to 0.90, respectively. All loci showed departures from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The analysis of population structure in this relictual population revealed three groups of individuals that are genetically differentiated. These newly developed microsatellites will constitute a very useful tool for the estimation of genetic diversity and structure, population dynamics, social structure, parentage and mating system in this little-studied armadillo species. Such genetic data will be particularly helpful for the development of conservation strategies for this isolated population and also for the endangered Bolivian populations previously recognized as a distinct species (Chaetophractus nationi).

Ramifying feedback networks, cross-scale interactions, and emergent quasi individuals in Conway's game of Life.

PubMed

Gotts, Nicholas M

2009-01-01

Small patterns of state 1 cells on an infinite, otherwise empty array of Conway's game of Life can produce sets of growing structures resembling in significant ways a population of spatially situated individuals in a nonuniform, highly structured environment. Ramifying feedback networks and cross-scale interactions play a central role in the emergence and subsequent dynamics of the quasi population. The implications are discussed: It is proposed that analogous networks and interactions may have been precursors to natural selection in the real world.

Conformational Sub-states and Populations in Enzyme Catalysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agarwal, Pratul K; Doucet, Nicholas; Chennubholta, C

reactants in the active site, chemical turnover, and release of products. In addition to formation of crucial structural interactions between enzyme and substrate(s), coordinated motions within the enzyme substrate complex allow reaction to proceed at a much faster rate, compared to the reaction in solution and in the absence of enzyme. An increasing number of enzyme systems show the presence of conserved protein motions that are important for function. A wide variety of motions are naturally sampled (over femtosecond to millisecond time-scales) as the enzyme complex moves along the energetic landscape, driven by temperature and dynamical events from the surroundingmore » environment. Areas of low energy along the landscape form conformational sub-states, which show higher conformational populations than surrounding areas. A small number of these protein conformational sub-states contain functionally important structural and dynamical features, which assist the enzyme mechanism along the catalytic cycle. Identification and characterization of these higher-energy (also called excited) sub-states and the associated populations are challenging, as these sub-states are very short-lived and therefore rarely populated. Specialized techniques based on computer simulations, theoretical modeling, and nuclear magnetic resonance have been developed for quantitative characterization of these sub-states and populations. This chapter discusses these techniques and provides examples of their applications to enzyme systems.« less

Spatial and temporal variation in population genetic structure of wild Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) across Africa

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Reconstructing the evolutionary history of a species is challenging. It often depends not only on the past biogeographic and climatic events but also the contemporary and ecological factors, such as current connectivity and habitat heterogeneity. In fact, these factors might interact with each other and shape the current species distribution. However, to what extent the current population genetic structure reflects the past and the contemporary factors is largely unknown. Here we investigated spatio-temporal genetic structures of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) populations, across their natural distribution in Africa. While its large biogeographic distribution can cause genetic differentiation at the paleo-biogeographic scales, its restricted dispersal capacity might induce a strong genetic structure at micro-geographic scales. Results Using nine microsatellite loci and 350 samples from ten natural populations, we found the highest genetic differentiation among the three ichthyofaunal provinces and regions (Ethiopian, Nilotic and Sudano-Sahelian) (RST = 0.38 - 0.69). This result suggests the predominant effect of paleo-geographic events at macro-geographic scale. In addition, intermediate divergences were found between rivers and lakes within the regions, presumably reflecting relatively recent interruptions of gene flow between hydrographic basins (RST = 0.24 - 0.32). The lowest differentiations were observed among connected populations within a basin (RST = 0.015 in the Volta basin). Comparison of temporal sample series revealed subtle changes in the gene pools in a few generations (F = 0 - 0.053). The estimated effective population sizes were 23 - 143 and the estimated migration rate was moderate (m ~ 0.094 - 0.097) in the Volta populations. Conclusions This study revealed clear hierarchical patterns of the population genetic structuring of O. niloticus in Africa. The effects of paleo-geographic and climatic events were predominant at macro-geographic scale, and the significant effect of geographic connectivity was detected at micro-geographic scale. The estimated effective population size, the moderate level of dispersal and the rapid temporal change in genetic composition might reflect a potential effect of life history strategy on population dynamics. This hypothesis deserves further investigation. The dynamic pattern revealed at micro-geographic and temporal scales appears important from a genetic resource management as well as from a biodiversity conservation point of view. PMID:22151746

Development and assessment of 30-meter pine density maps for landscape-level modeling of mountain pine beetle dynamics

Treesearch

Benjamin A. Crabb; James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz

2012-01-01

Forecasting spatial patterns of mountain pine beetle (MPB) population success requires spatially explicit information on host pine distribution. We developed a means of producing spatially explicit datasets of pine density at 30-m resolution using existing geospatial datasets of vegetation composition and structure. Because our ultimate goal is to model MPB population...

Real-Time Population Health Detector

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-11-01

military and civilian populations. General Dynamics (then Veridian Systems Division), in cooperation with Stanford University, won a competitive DARPA...via the sequence of one-step ahead forecast errors from the Kalman recursions: 1| −−= tttt Hye µ The log-likelihood then follows by treating the... parking in the transient parking structure. Norfolk Area Military Treatment Facility Patient Files GDAIS received historic CHCS data from all

Development of Alnus tenuifolia stands on an Alaskan floodplain: patterns of recruitment, disease, and succession

Treesearch

Dana R. Nossov; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; Roger W. Ruess; Knut Kielland

2011-01-01

We investigated the population dynamics of the keystone symbiotic N-fixing species Alnus tenuifolia (thinleaf alder) and the patterns of primary succession on the Tanana River floodplains of interior Alaska, USA. The goals of this study were to characterize (i) the variation in the population structure of thinleaf alder and its influence on...

Temporal variation in synchrony among chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central Idaho

Treesearch

D. J. Isaak; R. F. Thurow; B. E. Rieman; J. B. Dunham

2003-01-01

Metapopulation dynamics have emerged as a key consideration in conservation planning for salmonid fishes. Implicit to many models of spatially structured populations is a degree of synchrony, or correlation, among populations. We used a spatially and temporally extensive database of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central...

Genetic variation and population structure in Fraser fir (Abies fraseri): a microsatellite assessment of young trees

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; John Frampton; Sedley A. Josserand; Dana C. Nelson

2008-01-01

The island-like populations of Fraser fir (Abies fraseri (Pursh) Poir.) have been isolated since the end of the late-Wisconsinian glaciation on the highest peaks of the Southern Appalachian Mountains and therefore offer an opportunity to investigate the genetic dynamics of a long-fragmented forest tree species. An analysis of eight microsatellite...

Genetic variation and population structure in fraser fir (Abies fraseri): a microsatellite assessment of young trees

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; John Framton; Sedley A. Josserand; C. Dana Nelson

2008-01-01

The island-like populations of Fraser fir (Abies fraseri (Pursh) Poir.) have been isolated since the end of the late-Wisconsinian glaciation on the highest peaks of the Southern Appalachian Mountains and therefore offer an opportunity to investigate the genetic dynamics of a long-fragmented forest tree species. An analysis of eight microsatellite...

Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

Relative Importance of Biotic and Abiotic Forces on the Composition and Dynamics of a Soft-Sediment Intertidal Community

PubMed Central

Barbeau, Myriam A.

2016-01-01

Top-down, bottom-up, middle-out and abiotic factors are usually viewed as main forces structuring biological communities, although assessment of their relative importance, in a single study, is rarely done. We quantified, using multivariate methods, associations between abiotic and biotic (top-down, bottom-up and middle-out) variables and infaunal population/community variation on intertidal mudflats in the Bay of Fundy, Canada, over two years. Our analysis indicated that spatial structural factors like site and plot accounted for most of the community and population variation. Although we observed a significant relationship between the community/populations and the biotic and abiotic variables, most were of minor importance relative to the structural factors. We suggest that community and population structure were relatively uncoupled from the structuring influences of biotic and abiotic factors in this system because of high concentrations of resources that sustain high densities of infauna and limit exploitative competition. Furthermore, we hypothesize that the infaunal community primarily reflects stochastic spatial events, namely a “first come, first served” process. PMID:26790098

The role of social and ecological processes in structuring animal populations: a case study from automated tracking of wild birds

PubMed Central

Farine, Damien R.; Firth, Josh A.; Aplin, Lucy M.; Crates, Ross A.; Culina, Antica; Garroway, Colin J.; Hinde, Camilla A.; Kidd, Lindall R.; Milligan, Nicole D.; Psorakis, Ioannis; Radersma, Reinder; Verhelst, Brecht; Voelkl, Bernhard; Sheldon, Ben C.

2015-01-01

Both social and ecological factors influence population process and structure, with resultant consequences for phenotypic selection on individuals. Understanding the scale and relative contribution of these two factors is thus a central aim in evolutionary ecology. In this study, we develop a framework using null models to identify the social and spatial patterns that contribute to phenotypic structure in a wild population of songbirds. We used automated technologies to track 1053 individuals that formed 73 737 groups from which we inferred a social network. Our framework identified that both social and spatial drivers contributed to assortment in the network. In particular, groups had a more even sex ratio than expected and exhibited a consistent age structure that suggested local association preferences, such as preferential attachment or avoidance. By contrast, recent immigrants were spatially partitioned from locally born individuals, suggesting differential dispersal strategies by phenotype. Our results highlight how different scales of social decision-making, ranging from post-natal dispersal settlement to fission–fusion dynamics, can interact to drive phenotypic structure in animal populations. PMID:26064644

Spatial distribution of limited resources and local density regulation in juvenile Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Finstad, Anders G; Einum, Sigurd; Ugedal, Ola; Forseth, Torbjørn

2009-01-01

1. Spatial heterogeneity of resources may influence competition among individuals and thus have a fundamental role in shaping population dynamics and carrying capacity. In the present study, we identify shelter opportunities as a limiting resource for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Experimental and field studies are combined in order to demonstrate how the spatial distribution of shelters may influence population dynamics on both within and among population scales. 2. In closed experimental streams, fish performance scaled negatively with decreasing shelter availability and increasing densities. In contrast, the fish in open stream channels dispersed according to shelter availability and performance of fish remaining in the streams did not depend on initial density or shelters. 3. The field study confirmed that spatial variation in densities of 1-year-old juveniles was governed both by initial recruit density and shelter availability. Strength of density-dependent population regulation, measured as carrying capacity, increased with decreasing number of shelters. 4. Nine rivers were surveyed for spatial variation in shelter availability and increased shelter heterogeneity tended to decrease maximum observed population size (measured using catch statistics of adult salmon as a proxy). 5. Our studies highlight the importance of small-scale within-population spatial structure in population dynamics and demonstrate that not only the absolute amount of limiting resources but also their spatial arrangement can be an important factor influencing population carrying capacity.

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice.

PubMed

Susdorf, R; Salama, N K G; Lusseau, D

2017-11-21

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The roles of competition and habitat in the dynamics of populations and species distributions Ecology

Treesearch

Charles B. Yackulic; Janice Reid; James D. Nichols; James E. Hines; Raymond Davis; Eric Forsman

2014-01-01

The role of competition in structuring biotic communities at fine spatial scales is well known from detailed process-based studies. Our understanding of competition’s importance at broader scales is less resolved and mainly based on static species distribution maps. Here, we bridge this gap by examining the joint occupancy dynamics of an invading species (Barred Owl,...

Atomic structure and dynamics properties of Cu50Zr50 films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Heng; Qu, Bingyan; Li, Dongdong; Zhou, Rulong; Zhang, Bo

2018-01-01

In this paper, the structural and dynamic properties of Cu50Zr50 films are investigated by molecular dynamics simulations. Our results show that the dynamics of the surface atoms are much faster than those of the bulk. Especially, the diffusion coefficient of the surface atoms is about forty times larger than that of the bulk at 600 K, which qualitatively agrees with the experimental results. Meanwhile, we find that the population of the icosahedral (-like) clusters in the surface region is obviously higher than that of the bulk, which prevents the surface from crystallization. A new method to determine the string-like collective atomic motion is introduced in the paper, and it suggests a possible connection between the glass formation ability and collective atomic motion. By using the method, the effects of surface on collective motion are illustrated. Our results show that the string-like collective atomic motion of surface atoms is weakened while that of the interior atoms is strengthened. The studies clearly explain the effects of surface on the structural and dynamic properties of Cu50Zr50 films from the atomic scale.

Dynamical ion transfer between coupled Coulomb crystals in a double-well potential.

PubMed

Klumpp, Andrea; Zampetaki, Alexandra; Schmelcher, Peter

2017-09-01

We investigate the nonequilibrium dynamics of coupled Coulomb crystals of different sizes trapped in a double well potential. The dynamics is induced by an instantaneous quench of the potential barrier separating the two crystals. Due to the intra- and intercrystal Coulomb interactions and the asymmetric population of the potential wells, we observe a complex reordering of ions within the two crystals as well as ion transfer processes from one well to the other. The study and analysis of the latter processes constitutes the main focus of this work. In particular, we examine the dependence of the observed ion transfers on the quench amplitude performing an analysis for different crystalline configurations ranging from one-dimensional ion chains via two-dimensional zigzag chains and ring structures to three-dimensional spherical structures. Such an analysis provides us with the means to extract the general principles governing the ion transfer dynamics and we gain some insight on the structural disorder caused by the quench of the barrier height.

Introduction: demography and cultural macroevolution.

PubMed

Steele, James; Shennan, Stephen

2009-04-01

The papers in this special issue of Human Biology, which derive from a conference sponsored by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) Center for the Evolution of Cultural Diversity, lay some of the foundations for an empirical macroevolutionary analysis of cultural dynamics. Our premise here is that cultural dynamics-including the stability of traditions and the rate of origination of new variants-are influenced by independently occurring demographic processes (population size, structure, and distribution as these vary over time as a result of changes in rates of fertility, mortality, and migration). The contributors focus on three sets of problems relevant to empirical studies of cultural macroevolution: large-scale reconstruction of past population dynamics from archaeological and genetic data; juxtaposition of models and evidence of cultural dynamics using large-scale archaeological and historical data sets; and juxtaposition of models and evidence of cultural dynamics from large-scale linguistic data sets. In this introduction we outline some of the theoretical and methodological issues and briefly summarize the individual contributions.

Games of multicellularity.

PubMed

Kaveh, Kamran; Veller, Carl; Nowak, Martin A

2016-08-21

Evolutionary game dynamics are often studied in the context of different population structures. Here we propose a new population structure that is inspired by simple multicellular life forms. In our model, cells reproduce but can stay together after reproduction. They reach complexes of a certain size, n, before producing single cells again. The cells within a complex derive payoff from an evolutionary game by interacting with each other. The reproductive rate of cells is proportional to their payoff. We consider all two-strategy games. We study deterministic evolutionary dynamics with mutations, and derive exact conditions for selection to favor one strategy over another. Our main result has the same symmetry as the well-known sigma condition, which has been proven for stochastic game dynamics and weak selection. For a maximum complex size of n=2 our result holds for any intensity of selection. For n≥3 it holds for weak selection. As specific examples we study the prisoner's dilemma and hawk-dove games. Our model advances theoretical work on multicellularity by allowing for frequency-dependent interactions within groups. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Von Bertalanffy's dynamics under a polynomial correction: Allee effect and big bang bifurcation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, A. K.; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

2016-02-01

In this work we consider new one-dimensional populational discrete dynamical systems in which the growth of the population is described by a family of von Bertalanffy's functions, as a dynamical approach to von Bertalanffy's growth equation. The purpose of introducing Allee effect in those models is satisfied under a correction factor of polynomial type. We study classes of von Bertalanffy's functions with different types of Allee effect: strong and weak Allee's functions. Dependent on the variation of four parameters, von Bertalanffy's functions also includes another class of important functions: functions with no Allee effect. The complex bifurcation structures of these von Bertalanffy's functions is investigated in detail. We verified that this family of functions has particular bifurcation structures: the big bang bifurcation of the so-called “box-within-a-box” type. The big bang bifurcation is associated to the asymptotic weight or carrying capacity. This work is a contribution to the study of the big bang bifurcation analysis for continuous maps and their relationship with explosion birth and extinction phenomena.

Biophysical controls on cluster dynamics and architectural differentiation of microbial biofilms in contrasting flow environments

PubMed Central

Hödl, Iris; Mari, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Suweis, Samir; Besemer, Katharina; Rinaldo, Andrea; Battin, Tom J

2014-01-01

Ecology, with a traditional focus on plants and animals, seeks to understand the mechanisms underlying structure and dynamics of communities. In microbial ecology, the focus is changing from planktonic communities to attached biofilms that dominate microbial life in numerous systems. Therefore, interest in the structure and function of biofilms is on the rise. Biofilms can form reproducible physical structures (i.e. architecture) at the millimetre-scale, which are central to their functioning. However, the spatial dynamics of the clusters conferring physical structure to biofilms remains often elusive. By experimenting with complex microbial communities forming biofilms in contrasting hydrodynamic microenvironments in stream mesocosms, we show that morphogenesis results in ‘ripple-like’ and ‘star-like’ architectures – as they have also been reported from monospecies bacterial biofilms, for instance. To explore the potential contribution of demographic processes to these architectures, we propose a size-structured population model to simulate the dynamics of biofilm growth and cluster size distribution. Our findings establish that basic physical and demographic processes are key forces that shape apparently universal biofilm architectures as they occur in diverse microbial but also in single-species bacterial biofilms. PMID:23879839

Effects of population succession on demographic and genetic processes: predictions and tests in the daylily Hemerocallis thunbergii (Liliaceae).

PubMed

Chung, Mi Yoon; Nason, John D; Chung, Myong Gi

2007-07-01

Spatial genetic structure within plant populations is influenced by variation in demographic processes through space and time, including a population's successional status. To determine how demographic structure and fine-scale genetic structure (FSGS) change with stages in a population's successional history, we studied Hemerocallis thunbergii (Liliaceae), a nocturnal flowering and hawkmoth-pollinated herbaceous perennial with rapid population turnover dynamics. We examined nine populations assigned to three successive stages of population succession: expansion, maturation, and senescence. We developed stage-specific expectations for within-population demographic and genetic structure, and then for each population quantified the spatial aggregation of individuals and genotypes using spatial autocorrelation methods (nonaccumulative O-ring and kinship statistics, respectively), and at the landscape level measured inbreeding and genetic structure using Wright's F-statistics. Analyses using the O-ring statistic revealed significant aggregation of individuals at short spatial scales in expanding and senescing populations, in particular, which may reflect restricted seed dispersal around maternal individuals combined with relatively low local population densities at these stages. Significant FSGS was found for three of four expanding, no mature, and only one senescing population, a pattern generally consistent with expectations of successional processes. Although allozyme genetic diversity was high within populations (mean %P = 78.9 and H(E) = 0.281), landscape-level differentiation among sites was also high (F(ST) = 0.166) and all populations exhibited a significant deficit of heterozygotes relative to Hardy-Weinberg expectations (range F = 0.201-0.424, mean F(IS) = 0.321). Within populations, F was not correlated with the degree of FSGS, thus suggesting inbreeding due primarily to selfing as opposed to mating among close relatives in spatially structured populations. Our results demonstrate considerable variation in the spatial distribution of individuals and patterns and magnitude of FSGS in H. thunbergii populations across the landscape. This variation is generally consistent with succession-stage-specific differences in ecological processes operating within these populations.

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Oli, Madan K

2006-04-01

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

Molecular dynamics simulations of viral RNA polymerases link conserved and correlated motions of functional elements to fidelity

PubMed Central

Moustafa, Ibrahim M.; Shen, Hujun; Morton, Brandon; Colina, Coray M.; Cameron, Craig E.

2011-01-01

The viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) is essential for multiplication of all RNA viruses. The sequence diversity of an RNA virus population contributes to its ability to infect the host. This diversity emanates from errors made by the RdRp during RNA synthesis. The physical basis for RdRp fidelity is unclear but is linked to conformational changes occurring during the nucleotide-addition cycle. To understand RdRp dynamics that might influence RdRp function, we have analyzed all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on the nanosecond timescale of four RdRps from the picornavirus family that exhibit 30–74% sequence identity. Principal component analysis showed that the major motions observed during the simulations derived from conserved structural motifs and regions of known function. Dynamics of residues participating in the same biochemical property, for example RNA binding, nucleotide binding or catalysis, were correlated even when spatially distant on the RdRp structure. The conserved and correlated dynamics of functional, structural elements suggest co-evolution of dynamics with structure and function of the RdRp. Crystal structures of all picornavirus RdRps exhibit a template-nascent RNA duplex channel too small to fully accommodate duplex RNA. Simulations revealed opening and closing motions of the RNA and NTP channels, which might be relevant to NTP entry, PPi exit and translocation. A role for nanosecond timescale dynamics in RdRp fidelity is supported by altered dynamics of the high-fidelity G64S derivative of PV RdRp relative to wild-type enzyme. PMID:21575642

A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

PubMed

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systematic Validation of Protein Force Fields against Experimental Data

PubMed Central

Eastwood, Michael P.; Dror, Ron O.; Shaw, David E.

2012-01-01

Molecular dynamics simulations provide a vehicle for capturing the structures, motions, and interactions of biological macromolecules in full atomic detail. The accuracy of such simulations, however, is critically dependent on the force field—the mathematical model used to approximate the atomic-level forces acting on the simulated molecular system. Here we present a systematic and extensive evaluation of eight different protein force fields based on comparisons of experimental data with molecular dynamics simulations that reach a previously inaccessible timescale. First, through extensive comparisons with experimental NMR data, we examined the force fields' abilities to describe the structure and fluctuations of folded proteins. Second, we quantified potential biases towards different secondary structure types by comparing experimental and simulation data for small peptides that preferentially populate either helical or sheet-like structures. Third, we tested the force fields' abilities to fold two small proteins—one α-helical, the other with β-sheet structure. The results suggest that force fields have improved over time, and that the most recent versions, while not perfect, provide an accurate description of many structural and dynamical properties of proteins. PMID:22384157

Dynamic modeling of injection-induced fault reactivation and ground motion and impact on surface structures and human perception

DOE PAGES

Rutqvist, Jonny; Cappa, Frederic; Rinaldi, Antonio P.; ...

2014-12-31

We summarize recent modeling studies of injection-induced fault reactivation, seismicity, and its potential impact on surface structures and nuisance to the local human population. We used coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical numerical modeling, dynamic wave propagation modeling, seismology theories, and empirical vibration criteria from mining and construction industries. We first simulated injection-induced fault reactivation, including dynamic fault slip, seismic source, wave propagation, and ground vibrations. From co-seismic average shear displacement and rupture area, we determined the moment magnitude to about M w = 3 for an injection-induced fault reactivation at a depth of about 1000 m. We then analyzedmore » the ground vibration results in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and frequency content, with comparison to the U.S. Bureau of Mines’ vibration criteria for cosmetic damage to buildings, as well as human-perception vibration limits. For the considered synthetic M w = 3 event, our analysis showed that the short duration, high frequency ground motion may not cause any significant damage to surface structures, and would not cause, in this particular case, upward CO 2 leakage, but would certainly be felt by the local population.« less

[Analysis of genetico-demographic structure of rural populations living near the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site].

PubMed

Sviatova, G S; Berezina, G M; Abil'dinova, G Zh

2001-12-01

Rural populations neighboring the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site were used as a model to develop and test an integrated population-genetic approach to analysis of the medical genetic situation and environmental conditions in the areas studied. The contributions of individual factors of population dynamics into the formation of the genetic load were also assessed. The informative values of some genetic markers were estimated. Based on these estimates, a mathematical model was constructed that makes it possible to calculate numerical scores for analysis of the genetic loads in populations differing in environmental exposure.

Optimal management of non-Markovian biological populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2007-01-01

Wildlife populations typically are described by Markovian models, with population dynamics influenced at each point in time by current but not previous population levels. Considerable work has been done on identifying optimal management strategies under the Markovian assumption. In this paper we generalize this work to non-Markovian systems, for which population responses to management are influenced by lagged as well as current status and/or controls. We use the maximum principle of optimal control theory to derive conditions for the optimal management such a system, and illustrate the effects of lags on the structure of optimal habitat strategies for a predator-prey system.

Calls reveal population structure of blue whales across the southeast Indian Ocean and the southwest Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Balcazar, Naysa E; Tripovich, Joy S; Klinck, Holger; Nieukirk, Sharon L; Mellinger, David K; Dziak, Robert P; Rogers, Tracey L

2015-11-24

For effective species management, understanding population structure and distribution is critical. However, quantifying population structure is not always straightforward. Within the Southern Hemisphere, the blue whale ( Balaenoptera musculus ) complex is extremely diverse but difficult to study. Using automated detector methods, we identified "acoustic populations" of whales producing region-specific call types. We examined blue whale call types in passive acoustic data at sites spanning over 7,370 km across the southeast Indian Ocean and southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO) from 2009 to 2012. In the absence of genetic resolution, these acoustic populations offer unique information about the blue whale population complex. We found that the Australian continent acts as a geographic boundary, separating Australia and New Zealand blue whale acoustic populations at the junction of the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. We located blue whales in previously undocumented locations, including the far SWPO, in the Tasman Sea off the east coast of Australia, and along the Lau Basin near Tonga. Our understanding of population dynamics across this broad scale has significant implications to recovery and conservation management for this endangered species, at a regional and global scale.

Population shuffling between ground and high energy excited states

PubMed Central

Sabo, T Michael; Trent, John O; Lee, Donghan

2015-01-01

Stochastic processes powered by thermal energy lead to protein motions traversing time-scales from picoseconds to seconds. Fundamental to protein functionality is the utilization of these dynamics for tasks such as catalysis, folding, and allostery. A hierarchy of motion is hypothesized to connect and synergize fast and slow dynamics toward performing these essential activities. Population shuffling predicts a “top-down” temporal hierarchy, where slow time-scale conformational interconversion leads to a shuffling of the free energy landscape for fast time-scale events. Until now, population shuffling was only applied to interconverting ground states. Here, we extend the framework of population shuffling to be applicable for a system interconverting between low energy ground and high energy excited states, such as the SH3 domain mutants G48M and A39V/N53P/V55L from the Fyn tyrosine kinase, providing another tool for accessing the structural dynamics of high energy excited states. Our results indicate that the higher energy gauche− rotameric state for the leucine χ2 dihedral angle contributes significantly to the distribution of rotameric states in both the major and minor forms of the SH3 domain. These findings are corroborated with unrestrained molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on both the major and minor states of the SH3 domain demonstrating high correlations between experimental and back-calculated leucine χ2 rotameric populations. Taken together, we demonstrate how fast time-scale rotameric side-chain population distributions can be extracted from slow time-scale conformational exchange data further extending the scope and the applicability of the population shuffling model. PMID:26316263

Population shuffling between ground and high energy excited states.

PubMed

Sabo, T Michael; Trent, John O; Lee, Donghan

2015-11-01

Stochastic processes powered by thermal energy lead to protein motions traversing time-scales from picoseconds to seconds. Fundamental to protein functionality is the utilization of these dynamics for tasks such as catalysis, folding, and allostery. A hierarchy of motion is hypothesized to connect and synergize fast and slow dynamics toward performing these essential activities. Population shuffling predicts a "top-down" temporal hierarchy, where slow time-scale conformational interconversion leads to a shuffling of the free energy landscape for fast time-scale events. Until now, population shuffling was only applied to interconverting ground states. Here, we extend the framework of population shuffling to be applicable for a system interconverting between low energy ground and high energy excited states, such as the SH3 domain mutants G48M and A39V/N53P/V55L from the Fyn tyrosine kinase, providing another tool for accessing the structural dynamics of high energy excited states. Our results indicate that the higher energy gauche - rotameric state for the leucine χ2 dihedral angle contributes significantly to the distribution of rotameric states in both the major and minor forms of the SH3 domain. These findings are corroborated with unrestrained molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on both the major and minor states of the SH3 domain demonstrating high correlations between experimental and back-calculated leucine χ2 rotameric populations. Taken together, we demonstrate how fast time-scale rotameric side-chain population distributions can be extracted from slow time-scale conformational exchange data further extending the scope and the applicability of the population shuffling model. © 2015 The Protein Society.

Genomic differentiation and demographic histories of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) populations.

PubMed

Barth, J M I; Damerau, M; Matschiner, M; Jentoft, S; Hanel, R

2017-04-13

Recent developments in the field of genomics have provided new and powerful insights into population structure and dynamics that are essential for the conservation of biological diversity. As a commercially highly valuable species, the yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) is intensely exploited throughout its distribution in tropical oceans around the world, and is currently classified as near threatened. However, conservation efforts for this species have so far been hampered by limited knowledge of its population structure, due to incongruent results of previous investigations. Here, we use whole-genome sequencing in concert with a draft genome assembly to decipher the global population structure of the yellowfin tuna, and to investigate its demographic history. We detect significant differentiation of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna populations as well as the possibility of a third diverged yellowfin tuna group in the Arabian Sea. We further observe evidence for past population expansion as well as asymmetric gene flow from the Indo-Pacific to the Atlantic. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Fine-scale population genetic structure of a wildlife disease vector: The southern house mosquito on the island of Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keyghobadi, N.; LaPointe, D.; Fleischer, R.C.; Fonseca, D.M.

2006-01-01

The southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus, is a widespread tropical and subtropical disease vector. In the Hawaiian Islands, where it was introduced accidentally almost two centuries ago, it is considered the primary vector of avian malaria and pox. Avian malaria in particular has contributed to the extinction and endangerment of Hawaii's native avifauna, and has altered the altitudinal distribution of native bird populations. We examined the population genetic structure of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the island of Hawaii at a smaller spatial scale than has previously been attempted, with particular emphasis on the effects of elevation on population genetic structure. We found significant genetic differentiation among populations and patterns of isolation by distance within the island. Elevation per se did not have a limiting effect on gene flow; however, there was significantly lower genetic diversity among populations at mid elevations compared to those at low elevations. A recent sample taken from just above the predicted upper altitudinal distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the island of Hawaii was confirmed as being a temporary summer population and appeared to consist of individuals from more than one source population. Our results indicate effects of elevation gradients on genetic structure that are consistent with known effects of elevation on population dynamics of this disease vector. ?? 2006 The Authors.

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

PubMed Central

Keedy, Daniel A; Kenner, Lillian R; Warkentin, Matthew; Woldeyes, Rahel A; Hopkins, Jesse B; Thompson, Michael C; Brewster, Aaron S; Van Benschoten, Andrew H; Baxter, Elizabeth L; Uervirojnangkoorn, Monarin; McPhillips, Scott E; Song, Jinhu; Alonso-Mori, Roberto; Holton, James M; Weis, William I; Brunger, Axel T; Soltis, S Michael; Lemke, Henrik; Gonzalez, Ana; Sauter, Nicholas K; Cohen, Aina E; van den Bedem, Henry; Thorne, Robert E; Fraser, James S

2015-01-01

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences of these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Together, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07574.001 PMID:26422513

Low Dynamics, High Longevity and Persistence of Sessile Structural Species Dwelling on Mediterranean Coralligenous Outcrops

PubMed Central

Teixidó, Núria; Garrabou, Joaquim; Harmelin, Jean-George

2011-01-01

There is still limited understanding of the processes underlying benthic species dynamics in marine coastal habitats, which are of disproportionate importance in terms of productivity and biodiversity. The life-history traits of long-lived benthic species in these habitats are particularly poorly documented. In this study, we assessed decadal patterns of population dynamics for ten sponge and anthozoan species that play key structural roles in coralligenous outcrops (∼25 m depth) in two areas of the NW Mediterranean Sea. This study was based on examination of a unique long-term photographic series, which allowed analysis of population dynamics over extensive spatial and time spans for the very first time. Specifically, 671 individuals were censused annually over periods of 25-, 15-, and 5-years. This long-term study quantitatively revealed a common life-history pattern among the ten studied species, despite the fact they present different growth forms. Low mortality rates (3.4% yr−1 for all species combined) and infrequent recruitment events (mean value of 3.1±0.5 SE recruits yr−1) provided only a very small fraction of the new colonies required to maintain population sizes. Overall, annual mortality and recruitment rates did not differ significantly among years; however, some species displayed important mortality events and recruitment pulses, indicating variability among species. Based on the growth rates of these 10 species, we projected their longevity and, obtained a mean estimated age of 25–200 years. Finally, the low to moderate turnover rates (mean value 0.80% yr−1) observed among the coralligenous species were in agreement with their low dynamics and persistence. These results offer solid baseline data and reveal that these habitats are among the most vulnerable to the current increases of anthropogenic disturbances. PMID:21887308

Implications for management and conservation of the population genetic structure of the wedge clam Donax trunculus across two biogeographic boundaries

PubMed Central

Marie, Amandine D.; Lejeusne, Christophe; Karapatsiou, Evgenia; Cuesta, José A.; Drake, Pilar; Macpherson, Enrique; Bernatchez, Louis; Rico, Ciro

2016-01-01

In a resource management perspective, the understanding of the relative influence of the physical factors on species connectivity remains a major challenge and is also of great ecological and conservation biology interest. Despite the overfishing threat on the wedge clam Donax trunculus in Europe, relatively little information is known about its population genetic structure and connectivity and their consequences on conservation policies. We employed 16 microsatellite loci to characterise the genetic diversity and population structure of D. trunculus. A total of 514 samples from seven different localities along the Atlantic-Mediterranean transition, from the Atlantic (Gulf of Cádiz) to the north-western Mediterranean were genotyped. The analysis of the population genetic structure displayed a clear distinction along the Atlantic-Mediterranean transition with different clusters in the Atlantic Ocean, the Alboran Sea and the northwestern Mediterranean. Consequently, we recommend that these three areas should be considered as different management units. We showed that all populations seem to be at high long-term risk of extinction with the exception of the protected Doñana National Park population which still seems to have evolutionary potential. Therefore, our results emphasized the necessity of protection of this economic resource and the validity of molecular tools to evaluate the population dynamics. PMID:27991535

Implications for management and conservation of the population genetic structure of the wedge clam Donax trunculus across two biogeographic boundaries.

PubMed

Marie, Amandine D; Lejeusne, Christophe; Karapatsiou, Evgenia; Cuesta, José A; Drake, Pilar; Macpherson, Enrique; Bernatchez, Louis; Rico, Ciro

2016-12-19

In a resource management perspective, the understanding of the relative influence of the physical factors on species connectivity remains a major challenge and is also of great ecological and conservation biology interest. Despite the overfishing threat on the wedge clam Donax trunculus in Europe, relatively little information is known about its population genetic structure and connectivity and their consequences on conservation policies. We employed 16 microsatellite loci to characterise the genetic diversity and population structure of D. trunculus. A total of 514 samples from seven different localities along the Atlantic-Mediterranean transition, from the Atlantic (Gulf of Cádiz) to the north-western Mediterranean were genotyped. The analysis of the population genetic structure displayed a clear distinction along the Atlantic-Mediterranean transition with different clusters in the Atlantic Ocean, the Alboran Sea and the northwestern Mediterranean. Consequently, we recommend that these three areas should be considered as different management units. We showed that all populations seem to be at high long-term risk of extinction with the exception of the protected Doñana National Park population which still seems to have evolutionary potential. Therefore, our results emphasized the necessity of protection of this economic resource and the validity of molecular tools to evaluate the population dynamics.

Implications for management and conservation of the population genetic structure of the wedge clam Donax trunculus across two biogeographic boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marie, Amandine D.; Lejeusne, Christophe; Karapatsiou, Evgenia; Cuesta, José A.; Drake, Pilar; MacPherson, Enrique; Bernatchez, Louis; Rico, Ciro

2016-12-01

In a resource management perspective, the understanding of the relative influence of the physical factors on species connectivity remains a major challenge and is also of great ecological and conservation biology interest. Despite the overfishing threat on the wedge clam Donax trunculus in Europe, relatively little information is known about its population genetic structure and connectivity and their consequences on conservation policies. We employed 16 microsatellite loci to characterise the genetic diversity and population structure of D. trunculus. A total of 514 samples from seven different localities along the Atlantic-Mediterranean transition, from the Atlantic (Gulf of Cádiz) to the north-western Mediterranean were genotyped. The analysis of the population genetic structure displayed a clear distinction along the Atlantic-Mediterranean transition with different clusters in the Atlantic Ocean, the Alboran Sea and the northwestern Mediterranean. Consequently, we recommend that these three areas should be considered as different management units. We showed that all populations seem to be at high long-term risk of extinction with the exception of the protected Doñana National Park population which still seems to have evolutionary potential. Therefore, our results emphasized the necessity of protection of this economic resource and the validity of molecular tools to evaluate the population dynamics.

Neural dynamics for landmark orientation and angular path integration

PubMed Central

Seelig, Johannes D.; Jayaraman, Vivek

2015-01-01

Summary Many animals navigate using a combination of visual landmarks and path integration. In mammalian brains, head direction cells integrate these two streams of information by representing an animal's heading relative to landmarks, yet maintaining their directional tuning in darkness based on self-motion cues. Here we use two-photon calcium imaging in head-fixed flies walking on a ball in a virtual reality arena to demonstrate that landmark-based orientation and angular path integration are combined in the population responses of neurons whose dendrites tile the ellipsoid body — a toroidal structure in the center of the fly brain. The population encodes the fly's azimuth relative to its environment, tracking visual landmarks when available and relying on self-motion cues in darkness. When both visual and self-motion cues are absent, a representation of the animal's orientation is maintained in this network through persistent activity — a potential substrate for short-term memory. Several features of the population dynamics of these neurons and their circular anatomical arrangement are suggestive of ring attractors — network structures proposed to support the function of navigational brain circuits. PMID:25971509

Role of Alternative Food in Controlling Chaotic Dynamics in a Predator-Prey Model with Disease in the Predator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Krishna Pada; Bairagi, Nandadulal; Sen, Prabir

It is generally, but not always, accepted that alternative food plays a stabilizing role in predator-prey interaction. Parasites, on the other hand, have the ability to change both the qualitative and quantitative dynamics of its host population. In recent times, researchers are showing growing interest in formulating models that integrate both the ecological and epidemiological aspects. The present paper deals with the effect of alternative food on a predator-prey system with disease in the predator population. We show that the system, in the absence of alternative food, exhibits different dynamics viz. stable coexistence, limit cycle oscillations, period-doubling bifurcation and chaos when infection rate is gradually increased. However, when predator consumes alternative food coupled with its focal prey, the system returns to regular oscillatory state from chaotic state through period-halving bifurcations. Our study shows that alternative food may have larger impact on the community structure and may increase population persistence.

Adaptive modeling of viral diseases in bats with a focus on rabies.

PubMed

Dimitrov, Dobromir T; Hallam, Thomas G; Rupprecht, Charles E; McCracken, Gary F

2008-11-07

Many emerging and reemerging viruses, such as rabies, SARS, Marburg, and Ebola have bat populations as disease reservoirs. Understanding the spillover from bats to humans and other animals, and the associated health risks requires an analysis of the disease dynamics in bat populations. Traditional compartmental epizootic models, which are relatively easy to implement and analyze, usually impose unrealistic aggregation assumptions about disease-related structure and depend on parameters that frequently are not measurable in field conditions. We propose a novel combination of computational and adaptive modeling approaches that address the maintenance of emerging diseases in bat colonies through individual (intra-host) models of the response of the host to a viral challenge. The dynamics of the individual models are used to define survival, susceptibility and transmission conditions relevant to epizootics as well as to develop and parametrize models of the disease evolution into uniform and diverse populations. Applications of the proposed approach to modeling the effects of immunological heterogeneity on the dynamics of bat rabies are presented.

Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

2015-10-01

Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

A Compartmental Model for Zika Virus with Dynamic Human and Vector Populations

PubMed Central

Lee, Eva K; Liu, Yifan; Pietz, Ferdinand H

2016-01-01

The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in South American countries and its potential association with microcephaly in newborns and Guillain-Barré Syndrome led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. To understand the ZIKV disease dynamics and evaluate the effectiveness of different containment strategies, we propose a compartmental model with a vector-host structure for ZIKV. The model utilizes logistic growth in human population and dynamic growth in vector population. Using this model, we derive the basic reproduction number to gain insight on containment strategies. We contrast the impact and influence of different parameters on the virus trend and outbreak spread. We also evaluate different containment strategies and their combination effects to achieve early containment by minimizing total infections. This result can help decision makers select and invest in the strategies most effective to combat the infection spread. The decision-support tool demonstrates the importance of “digital disease surveillance” in response to waves of epidemics including ZIKV, Dengue, Ebola and cholera. PMID:28269870

[Analysis and design structure of an aging society].

PubMed

Fujimasa, Iwao

2012-01-01

On observing present Japanese society, we can find deep gaps between the present system and its probable future. One of the gaps may be due to the misconception that future societal make up is not definite. The aim of the current study was to investigate a future societal structure and to develop methods of adding a timed dimension policy to the societal structure. This is named "A theory of structuralism economics". We developed 3 societal structure projection engines and applied a system of dynamics language to estimate the future total population of Japan. The Japan total population reached a maximum in 2005, and thereafter depopulation begun. The populations in the younger working age group (from 25 to 54 years old) and those in the elderly working age group (from 55 to 84 years old) became almost equal in 2010. As economic growth rate depends upon an increase in the working population, the increase in national income rate of Japan approached over 10% per year between 1950 to 1970. The increased working age population of the same period exceeded 2.5% annually. However, after 2005 depopulation began in Japan. In future, national income will decrease proportional to the working age population, but personal national income will hold almost unchanged. We propose a new strategy for future society structure. The working age should be extended by 10 years. Labor power will come to exceed 60% of the population and will thereafter become stable.

Population structure of humpback whales in the western and central South Pacific Ocean as determined by vocal exchange among populations.

PubMed

Garland, Ellen C; Goldizen, Anne W; Lilley, Matthew S; Rekdahl, Melinda L; Garrigue, Claire; Constantine, Rochelle; Hauser, Nan Daeschler; Poole, M Michael; Robbins, Jooke; Noad, Michael J

2015-08-01

For cetaceans, population structure is traditionally determined by molecular genetics or photographically identified individuals. Acoustic data, however, has provided information on movement and population structure with less effort and cost than traditional methods in an array of taxa. Male humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) produce a continually evolving vocal sexual display, or song, that is similar among all males in a population. The rapid cultural transmission (the transfer of information or behavior between conspecifics through social learning) of different versions of this display between distinct but interconnected populations in the western and central South Pacific region presents a unique way to investigate population structure based on the movement dynamics of a song (acoustic) display. Using 11 years of data, we investigated an acoustically based population structure for the region by comparing stereotyped song sequences among populations and years. We used the Levenshtein distance technique to group previously defined populations into (vocally based) clusters based on the overall similarity of their song display in space and time. We identified the following distinct vocal clusters: western cluster, 1 population off eastern Australia; central cluster, populations around New Caledonia, Tonga, and American Samoa; and eastern region, either a single cluster or 2 clusters, one around the Cook Islands and the other off French Polynesia. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that each breeding aggregation represents a distinct population (each occupied a single, terminal node) in a metapopulation, similar to the current understanding of population structure based on genetic and photo-identification studies. However, the central vocal cluster had higher levels of song-sharing among populations than the other clusters, indicating that levels of vocal connectivity varied within the region. Our results demonstrate the utility and value of using culturally transmitted vocal patterns as a way of defining connectivity to infer population structure. We suggest vocal patterns be incorporated by the International Whaling Commission in conjunction with traditional methods in the assessment of structure. © 2015, Society for Conservation Biology.

Decipher the dynamic coordination between enzymatic activity and structural modulation at focal adhesions in living cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Shaoying; Seong, Jihye; Wang, Yi; Chang, Shiou-Chi; Eichorst, John Paul; Ouyang, Mingxing; Li, Julie Y.-S.; Chien, Shu; Wang, Yingxiao

2014-07-01

Focal adhesions (FAs) are dynamic subcellular structures crucial for cell adhesion, migration and differentiation. It remains an enigma how enzymatic activities in these local complexes regulate their structural remodeling in live cells. Utilizing biosensors based on fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET), we developed a correlative FRET imaging microscopy (CFIM) approach to quantitatively analyze the subcellular coordination between the enzymatic Src activation and the structural FA disassembly. CFIM reveals that the Src kinase activity only within the microdomain of lipid rafts at the plasma membrane is coupled with FA dynamics. FA disassembly at cell periphery was linearly dependent on this raft-localized Src activity, although cells displayed heterogeneous levels of response to stimulation. Within lipid rafts, the time delay between Src activation and FA disassembly was 1.2 min in cells seeded on low fibronectin concentration ([FN]) and 4.3 min in cells on high [FN]. CFIM further showed that the level of Src-FA coupling, as well as the time delay, was regulated by cell-matrix interactions, as a tight enzyme-structure coupling occurred in FA populations mediated by integrin αvβ3, but not in those by integrin α5β1. Therefore, different FA subpopulations have distinctive regulation mechanisms between their local kinase activity and structural FA dynamics.

Spatial structures in a simple model of population dynamics for parasite-host interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, J. J.; Skinner, B.; Breecher, N.; Schmittmann, B.; Zia, R. K. P.

2015-08-01

Spatial patterning can be crucially important for understanding the behavior of interacting populations. Here we investigate a simple model of parasite and host populations in which parasites are random walkers that must come into contact with a host in order to reproduce. We focus on the spatial arrangement of parasites around a single host, and we derive using analytics and numerical simulations the necessary conditions placed on the parasite fecundity and lifetime for the population's long-term survival. We also show that the parasite population can be pushed to extinction by a large drift velocity, but, counterintuitively, a small drift velocity generally increases the parasite population.

ULTRAFAST CHEMISTRY: Using Time-Resolved Vibrational Spectroscopy for Interrogation of Structural Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nibbering, Erik T. J.; Fidder, Henk; Pines, Ehud

2005-05-01

Time-resolved infrared (IR) and Raman spectroscopy elucidates molecular structure evolution during ultrafast chemical reactions. Following vibrational marker modes in real time provides direct insight into the structural dynamics, as is evidenced in studies on intramolecular hydrogen transfer, bimolecular proton transfer, electron transfer, hydrogen bonding during solvation dynamics, bond fission in organometallic compounds and heme proteins, cis-trans isomerization in retinal proteins, and transformations in photochromic switch pairs. Femtosecond IR spectroscopy monitors the site-specific interactions in hydrogen bonds. Conversion between excited electronic states can be followed for intramolecular electron transfer by inspection of the fingerprint IR- or Raman-active vibrations in conjunction with quantum chemical calculations. Excess internal vibrational energy, generated either by optical excitation or by internal conversion from the electronic excited state to the ground state, is observable through transient frequency shifts of IR-active vibrations and through nonequilibrium populations as deduced by Raman resonances.

Common cold outbreaks: A network theory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishkaie, Faranak Rajabi; Bakouie, Fatemeh; Gharibzadeh, Shahriar

2014-11-01

In this study, at first we evaluated the network structure in social encounters by which respiratory diseases can spread. We considered common-cold and recorded a sample of human population and actual encounters between them. Our results show that the database structure presents a great value of clustering. In the second step, we evaluated dynamics of disease spread with SIR model by assigning a function to each node of the structural network. The rate of disease spread in networks was observed to be inversely correlated with characteristic path length. Therefore, the shortcuts have a significant role in increasing spread rate. We conclude that the dynamics of social encounters' network stands between the random and the lattice in network spectrum. Although in this study we considered the period of common-cold disease for network dynamics, it seems that similar approaches may be useful for other airborne diseases such as SARS.

The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

2002-01-01

This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies.

PubMed

Betti, M I; Wahl, L M; Zamir, M

2016-11-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of 'spring dwindle', which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past.

Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

PubMed Central

Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

2014-01-01

A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

The walk is never random: subtle landscape effects shape gene flow in a continuous white-tailed deer population in the Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Stacie J.; Samuel, Michael D.; Lopez, Davin L.; Shelton, Paul

2012-01-01

One of the pervasive challenges in landscape genetics is detecting gene flow patterns within continuous populations of highly mobile wildlife. Understanding population genetic structure within a continuous population can give insights into social structure, movement across the landscape and contact between populations, which influence ecological interactions, reproductive dynamics or pathogen transmission. We investigated the genetic structure of a large population of deer spanning the area of Wisconsin and Illinois, USA, affected by chronic wasting disease. We combined multiscale investigation, landscape genetic techniques and spatial statistical modelling to address the complex questions of landscape factors influencing population structure. We sampled over 2000 deer and used spatial autocorrelation and a spatial principal components analysis to describe the population genetic structure. We evaluated landscape effects on this pattern using a spatial autoregressive model within a model selection framework to test alternative hypotheses about gene flow. We found high levels of genetic connectivity, with gradients of variation across the large continuous population of white-tailed deer. At the fine scale, spatial clustering of related animals was correlated with the amount and arrangement of forested habitat. At the broader scale, impediments to dispersal were important to shaping genetic connectivity within the population. We found significant barrier effects of individual state and interstate highways and rivers. Our results offer an important understanding of deer biology and movement that will help inform the management of this species in an area where overabundance and disease spread are primary concerns.

The malleability of gender stereotypes: influence of population size on perceptions of men and women in the past, present, and future.

PubMed

Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Müller, Stephanie M; López-Zafra, Esther

2011-01-01

Recent studies on the malleability of gender stereotypes show that they are flexible, dynamic structures that change with the passage of time. In a study, we examined perceptions about men and women of the past, present, and future in Spain and focused on the influence of an important demographic variable on these perceptions: the population size of people's location of residence. Results showed that people perceived an increase in similarity of men and women from the past to the present and from the present to the future. In less-populated locations, however, men and women were more gender stereotyped and, consequently, still perceived to be further from equality than those in more populated areas. We concluded that the study of dynamic gender stereotypes benefits from extensive research in populations that vary in their demographic characteristics and shows the importance of recent movements in rural areas supporting women's participation in the modernization process.

Population structure of an invasive parthenogenetic gastropod in coastal lakes and estuaries of northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

PubMed

Miranda, Nelson A F; Perissinotto, Renzo; Appleton, Christopher C

2011-01-01

Estuaries and coastal lakes receive little attention despite being heavily invaded by non-indigenous invasive species (NIS). In these situations, studies of population dynamics in invaded habitats can provide valuable insights into how NIS interact with new environments. Tarebia granifera is a prosobranch gastropod from south-east Asia which has invaded other sub-tropical parts of the world. This study addresses whether a small number of key environmental factors influences gastropod communities, and specifically how the population density and size structure of T. granifera were influenced by environmental change in estuaries and coastal lakes in southern Africa. T. granifera's density, number of brooded juveniles and size structure were measured at the St. Lucia Estuary, Mgobozeleni Estuary, Lake Sibaya and Lake Nhlange. Size structure was classified according to shell height (SH). All dissected individuals were found to be female and free from trematode infection. Salinity, water depth, temperature, and pH were the main factors correlated with population density of gastropod communities. T. granifera often reached densities well over 1000 ind. m(-2), displacing indigenous gastropods and becoming a dominant component of the benthic community. T. granifera successfully invaded estuaries despite frequent exposure to high salinity and desiccation, which could together eliminate >97% of the population. The persistence of T. granifera was ensured due to its high fecundity and the environmental tolerance of large adults (20-30 mm SH) which carried an average of 158±12.8 SD brooded juveniles. Repeat introductions were not essential for the success of this parthenogenetic NIS. There is a need for a broader study on the reproductive biology of T. granifera (including the previously overlooked "brood pouch ecology"), which affects population dynamics and may be relevant to other parthenogenetic NIS, such as Melanoides tuberculata and Potamopyrgus antipodarum.

Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications.

PubMed

Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V; Begg, Graham S; Gulden, Robert H; Van Acker, Rene C

2012-01-01

Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics.

Most Undirected Random Graphs Are Amplifiers of Selection for Birth-Death Dynamics, but Suppressors of Selection for Death-Birth Dynamics.

PubMed

Hindersin, Laura; Traulsen, Arne

2015-11-01

We analyze evolutionary dynamics on graphs, where the nodes represent individuals of a population. The links of a node describe which other individuals can be displaced by the offspring of the individual on that node. Amplifiers of selection are graphs for which the fixation probability is increased for advantageous mutants and decreased for disadvantageous mutants. A few examples of such amplifiers have been developed, but so far it is unclear how many such structures exist and how to construct them. Here, we show that almost any undirected random graph is an amplifier of selection for Birth-death updating, where an individual is selected to reproduce with probability proportional to its fitness and one of its neighbors is replaced by that offspring at random. If we instead focus on death-Birth updating, in which a random individual is removed and its neighbors compete for the empty spot, then the same ensemble of graphs consists of almost only suppressors of selection for which the fixation probability is decreased for advantageous mutants and increased for disadvantageous mutants. Thus, the impact of population structure on evolutionary dynamics is a subtle issue that will depend on seemingly minor details of the underlying evolutionary process.

MONITORING DECLINING METAPOPULATIONS: INSIGHTS FROM A MODEL SIMULATION

EPA Science Inventory

Pond-breeding amphibians, host-specialist butterflies, and a variety of other organisms have been shown to exhibit population structures and dynamics consistent with metapopulation theory. In recent years large-scale biodiversity monitoring efforts have been initiated in many reg...

STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS OF METAL PARTITIONING TO MINERAL SURFACES

EPA Science Inventory

The conceptual understanding of surface complexation reactions that control trace element partitioning to mineral surfaces is limited by the assumption that the solid reactant possesses a finite, time-invariant population of surface functional groups. This assumption has limited...

Theoretical study of dynamic electron-spin-polarization via the doublet-quartet quantum-mixed state and time-resolved ESR spectra of the quartet high-spin state.

PubMed

Teki, Yoshio; Matsumoto, Takafumi

2011-04-07

The mechanism of the unique dynamic electron polarization of the quartet (S = 3/2) high-spin state via a doublet-quartet quantum-mixed state and detail theoretical calculations of the population transfer are reported. By the photo-induced electron transfer, the quantum-mixed charge-separate state is generated in acceptor-donor-radical triad (A-D-R). This mechanism explains well the unique dynamic electron polarization of the quartet state of A-D-R. The generation of the selectively populated quantum-mixed state and its transfer to the strongly coupled pure quartet and doublet states have been treated both by a perturbation approach and by exact numerical calculations. The analytical solutions show that generation of the quantum-mixed states with the selective populations after de-coherence and/or accompanying the (complete) dephasing during the charge-recombination are essential for the unique dynamic electron polarization. Thus, the elimination of the quantum coherence (loss of the quantum information) is the key process for the population transfer from the quantum-mixed state to the quartet state. The generation of high-field polarization on the strongly coupled quartet state by the charge-recombination process can be explained by a polarization transfer from the quantum-mixed charge-separate state. Typical time-resolved ESR patterns of the quantum-mixed state and of the strongly coupled quartet state are simulated based on the generation mechanism of the dynamic electron polarization. The dependence of the spectral pattern of the quartet high-spin state has been clarified for the fine-structure tensor and the exchange interaction of the quantum-mixed state. The spectral pattern of the quartet state is not sensitive towards the fine-structure tensor of the quantum-mixed state, because this tensor contributes only as a perturbation in the population transfer to the spin-sublevels of the quartet state. Based on the stochastic Liouville equation, it is also discussed why the selective population in the quantum-mixed state is generated for the "finite field" spin-sublevels. The numerical calculations of the elimination of the quantum coherence (de-coherence and/or dephasing) are demonstrated. A new possibility of the enhanced intersystem crossing pathway in solution is also proposed.

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

PubMed

Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

2011-04-01

The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Strong population structure of Schizopygopsis chengi and the origin of S. chengi baoxingensis revealed by mtDNA and microsatellite markers.

PubMed

Liu, Dongqi; Hou, Feixia; Liu, Qin; Zhang, Xiuyue; Yan, Taiming; Song, Zhaobin

2015-02-01

The Tibetan Plateau underwent dramatic geological and climatic changes, which had important implications for genetic divergence and population dynamics of freshwater fish populations. Fluctuations of the ecogeographical environment and major hydrographic formations might have promoted the formation of new subspecies or species. In order to understand the impact of plateau uplift on freshwater fish evolutionary history, we estimated the genetic diversity and population structure in two subspecies of Schizopygopsis chengi (S. c. chengi and S. c. baoxingensis) in upper Yangtze River in Tibetan Plateau area using mitochondrial DNA control region and eight microsatellite markers, which suggested that there was a close genetic relationship. S. chengi showed some significant genetic structure that did not correlate with geographic distance. Bayesian assignment tests indicated that S. chengi samples in the study could be divided into four populations: upstream population, midstream population, tributary population and S. c. baoxingensis population. S. c. chengi and S. c. baoxingensis showed significant genetic divergence. However, phylogenetic analysis, population structure analysis and historical gene flow estimation suggested that there was close genetic relationship between S. c. baoxingensis and the Dawei population which belongs to populations of S. c. chengi. The time that Dawei population suffered from a bottleneck and S. c. baoxingensis underwent population expansion was congruent with the last glacial period on the Tibetan Plateau. The results confirmed the hypothesis that the Dawei River and Baoxing River were once connected, and the Dawei and Baoxing populations originated from a single population, but were isolated into separate populations because of crustal movements and the Baoxing population evolved as S. c. baoxingensis.

On the structure of attractors for discrete, periodically forced systems with applications to population models

Treesearch

James F. Selgrade; James H. Roberds

2001-01-01

This work discusses the effects of periodic forcing on attracting cycles and more complicated attractors for autonomous systems of nonlinear difference equations. Results indicate that an attractor for a periodically forced dynamical system may inherit structure from an attractor of the autonomous (unforced) system and also from the periodicity of the forcing. In...

Fixation of slightly beneficial mutations: effects of life history.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2010-04-01

Recent studies of rates of evolution have revealed large systematic differences among organisms with different life histories, both within and among taxa. Here, we consider how life history may affect the rate of evolution via its influence on the fixation probability of slightly beneficial mutations. Our approach is based on diffusion modeling for a finite, stage-structured population with stochastic population dynamics. The results, which are verified by computer simulations, demonstrate that even with complex population structure just two demographic parameters are sufficient to give an accurate approximation of the fixation probability of a slightly beneficial mutation. These are the reproductive value of the stage in which the mutation first occurs and the demographic variance of the population. The demographic variance also determines what influence population size has on the fixation probability. This model represents a substantial generalization of earlier models, covering a large range of life histories.

No population genetic structure in a widespread aquatic songbird from the Neotropics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cadena, Carlos Daniel; Gutierrez-Pinto, Natalia; Davila, Nicolas; Chesser, R. Terry

2011-01-01

Neotropical lowland organisms often show marked population genetic structure, suggesting restricted migration among populations. However, most phylogeographic studies have focused on species inhabiting humid forest interior. Little attention has been devoted to the study of species with ecologies conducive to dispersal, such as those of more open and variable environments associated with watercourses. Using mtDNA sequences, we examined patterns of genetic variation in a widely distributed Neotropical songbird of aquatic environments, the Yellow-hooded Blackbird (Icteridae, Chrysomus icterocephalus). In contrast to many forest species, Yellow-hooded Blackbirds showed no detectable genetic structure across their range, which includes lowland populations on both sides of the Andes, much of northeastern South America, Amazonia, as well as a phenotypically distinct highland population in Colombia. A coalescent-based analysis of the species indicated that its effective population size has increased considerably, suggesting a range expansion. Our results support the hypothesis that species occurring in open habitats and tracking temporally dynamic environments should show increased dispersal propensities (hence gene flow) relative to species from closed and more stable environments. The phenotypic and behavioral variation among populations of our study species appears to have arisen recently and perhaps in the face of gene flow.

Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

PubMed Central

Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

2012-01-01

Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess their relative contributions. PMID:23166666

Rapid evolution of hosts begets species diversity at the cost of intraspecific diversity

PubMed Central

Frickel, Jens; Theodosiou, Loukas

2017-01-01

Ecosystems are complex food webs in which multiple species interact and ecological and evolutionary processes continuously shape populations and communities. Previous studies on eco-evolutionary dynamics have shown that the presence of intraspecific diversity affects community structure and function, and that eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics can be an important driver for its maintenance. Within communities, feedbacks are, however, often indirect, and they can feed back over many generations. Here, we studied eco-evolutionary feedbacks in evolving communities over many generations and compared two-species systems (virus–host and prey–predator) with a more complex three-species system (virus–host–predator). Both indirect density- and trait-mediated effects drove the dynamics in the complex system, where host–virus coevolution facilitated coexistence of predator and virus, and where coexistence, in return, lowered intraspecific diversity of the host population. Furthermore, ecological and evolutionary dynamics were significantly altered in the three-species system compared with the two-species systems. We found that the predator slowed host–virus coevolution in the complex system and that the virus’ effect on the overall population dynamics was negligible when the three species coexisted. Overall, we show that a detailed understanding of the mechanism driving eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics is necessary for explaining trait and species diversity in communities, even in communities with only three species. PMID:28973943

Interactive diversity promotes the evolution of cooperation in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Qi; Li, Aming; Zhou, Lei; Wang, Long

2016-10-01

Evolutionary games on networks traditionally assume that each individual adopts an identical strategy to interact with all its neighbors in each generation. Considering the prevalent diversity of individual interactions in the real society, here we propose the concept of interactive diversity, which allows individuals to adopt different strategies against different neighbors in each generation. We investigate the evolution of cooperation based on the edge dynamics rather than the traditional nodal dynamics in networked systems. The results show that, without invoking any other mechanisms, interactive diversity drives the frequency of cooperation to a high level for a wide range of parameters in both well-mixed and structured populations. Even in highly connected populations, cooperation still thrives. When interactive diversity and large topological heterogeneity are combined together, however, in the relaxed social dilemma, cooperation level is lower than that with just one of them, implying that the combination of many promotive factors may make a worse outcome. By an analytical approximation, we get the condition under which interactive diversity provides more advantages for cooperation than traditional evolutionary dynamics does. Numerical simulations validating the approximation are also presented. Our work provides a new line to explore the latent relation between the ubiquitous cooperation and individuals’ distinct responses in different interactions. The presented results suggest that interactive diversity should receive more attention in pursuing mechanisms fostering cooperation.

Special issue dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. Preface.

PubMed

Hinow, Peter; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2015-08-01

This special issue is dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. The topics of the 12 articles appearing in this special issue include evolutionary dynamics of population growth, spatio-temporal dynamics in reaction-diffusion biological models, transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, modeling of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in hospitals, analysis of Prion models, age-structured models in ecology and epidemiology, modeling of immune response to infections, modeling of cancer growth, etc. These topics partially represent the broad areas of Glenn's research interest.

Analytical properties of a three-compartmental dynamical demographic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postnikov, E. B.

2015-07-01

The three-compartmental demographic model by Korotaeyv-Malkov-Khaltourina, connecting population size, economic surplus, and education level, is considered from the point of view of dynamical systems theory. It is shown that there exist two integrals of motion, which enables the system to be reduced to one nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The study of its structure provides analytical criteria for the dominance ranges of the dynamics of Malthus and Kremer. Additionally, the particular ranges of parameters enable the derived general ordinary differential equations to be reduced to the models of Gompertz and Thoularis-Wallace.

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics.

PubMed

Fernández, Néstor; Román, Jacinto; Delibes, Miguel

2016-04-13

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity--a major outcome of ecosystem functions--on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. © 2016 The Authors.

Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of Plasmodium falciparum in Lake Victoria Islands, A Region of Intense Transmission

PubMed Central

Mulenge, Felix M.; Hunja, Carol W.; Magiri, Esther; Culleton, Richard; Kaneko, Akira; Aman, Rashid A.

2016-01-01

Understanding the genetic structure and transmission dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum parasites in malaria-endemic regions is crucial before the implementation of interventions. Located in a high-transmission region of western Kenya where P. falciparum is the predominant species, the Lake Victoria islands are ideal for feasibility of malaria elimination studies. We analyzed genetic variation in eight microsatellite loci to examine parasite population structure and gene flow patterns across five sites. High levels of genetic diversity were measured throughout the region (mean heterozygosity index = 0.84). The overall fixation index value between the sites was 0.044, indicating that approximately 5% of the overall allelic variation is due to differences between the populations. Based on these results, we concluded that parasite population structure in the studied islands is shaped by human migration patterns that maintain extensive parasite gene flow between the sites. Consequently, any malaria elimination and interventions strategies in the study area will have to be carried out broadly on all four islands and adjoining mainland region. PMID:27601522

The leverage of demographic dynamics on carbon dioxide emissions: does age structure matter?

PubMed

Zagheni, Emilio

2011-02-01

This article provides a methodological contribution to the study of the effect of changes in population age structure on carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. First, I propose a generalization of the IPAT equation to a multisector economy with an age-structured population and discuss the insights that can be obtained in the context of stable population theory. Second, I suggest a statistical model of household consumption as a function of household size and age structure to quantitatively evaluate the extent of economies of scale in consumption of energy-intensive goods, and to estimate age-specific profiles of consumption of energy-intensive goods and of CO(2) emissions. Third, I offer an illustration of the methodologies using data for the United States. The analysis shows that per-capita CO(2) emissions increase with age until the individual is in his or her 60s, and then emissions tend to decrease. Holding everything else constant, the expected change in U.S. population age distribution during the next four decades is likely to have a small, but noticeable, positive impact on CO(2) emissions.

Exploring the dynamic links between microbial ecology and redox state of the hyporheic zone: insight from flume experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, M.; Cardenas, M. B.; Stegen, J.; Graham, E.; Cook, P. L. M.; Kessler, A. J.

2016-12-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ) provides key ecosystem services such as heavy metal sequestration, nutrient uptake and consumption, and habitat for a diverse collection of ecologically and commercially important species. Microbes are responsible for many of the chemical transformations in the HZ. These microbe populations are intimately linked to redox conditions, and recent work has shown that redox conditions in the HZ can be highly dynamic. Here we investigate the dynamic coupling between surface flow conditions, hyporheic redox conditions, and the hyporheic microbiome. Our window into this world is a large experimental flume (5m x 0.7m x 0.3m), prepared and incubated in a way that is relatively common to hyporheic zone research, without a strong attempt to impose a specific microbial community structure. We use computer-controlled flow combined with sand bedforms within the flume to generate a pattern of oxic and anoxic sediment zones, from which we collected sediment and water samples. Dissolved oxygen was mapped with a large planar optode. The samples were analyzed for microbial community composition through 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We compare the population structure between oxic and anoxic zones, showing that the presence of oxygen in the HZ is a strong predictor of microbial composition. Additionally, we compare both the oxic and anoxic community structure from the flume to those of samples taken from natural environments, showing both interesting similarities and differences. In the future, we plan to use time-series sampling to observe the response times of microbial communities subjected to dynamic surface channel flow and redox conditions. This work will yield greater understanding of the role that dynamic rivers play in microbe-provided ecosystem services.

Exploring the dynamic links between microbial ecology and redox state of the hyporheic zone: insight from flume experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, M.; Cardenas, M. B.; Stegen, J.; Graham, E.; Cook, P. L. M.; Kessler, A. J.

2017-12-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ) provides key ecosystem services such as heavy metal sequestration, nutrient uptake and consumption, and habitat for a diverse collection of ecologically and commercially important species. Microbes are responsible for many of the chemical transformations in the HZ. These microbe populations are intimately linked to redox conditions, and recent work has shown that redox conditions in the HZ can be highly dynamic. Here we investigate the dynamic coupling between surface flow conditions, hyporheic redox conditions, and the hyporheic microbiome. Our window into this world is a large experimental flume (5m x 0.7m x 0.3m), prepared and incubated in a way that is relatively common to hyporheic zone research, without a strong attempt to impose a specific microbial community structure. We use computer-controlled flow combined with sand bedforms within the flume to generate a pattern of oxic and anoxic sediment zones, from which we collected sediment and water samples. Dissolved oxygen was mapped with a large planar optode. The samples were analyzed for microbial community composition through 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We compare the population structure between oxic and anoxic zones, showing that the presence of oxygen in the HZ is a strong predictor of microbial composition. Additionally, we compare both the oxic and anoxic community structure from the flume to those of samples taken from natural environments, showing both interesting similarities and differences. In the future, we plan to use time-series sampling to observe the response times of microbial communities subjected to dynamic surface channel flow and redox conditions. This work will yield greater understanding of the role that dynamic rivers play in microbe-provided ecosystem services.

Primer selection impacts specific population abundances but not community dynamics in a monthly time-series 16S rRNA gene amplicon analysis of coastal marine bacterioplankton.

PubMed

Wear, Emma K; Wilbanks, Elizabeth G; Nelson, Craig E; Carlson, Craig A

2018-03-09

Primers targeting the 16S small subunit ribosomal RNA marker gene, used to characterize bacterial and archaeal communities, have recently been re-evaluated for marine planktonic habitats. To investigate whether primer selection affects the ecological interpretation of bacterioplankton populations and community dynamics, amplicon sequencing with four primer sets targeting several hypervariable regions of the 16S rRNA gene was conducted on both mock communities constructed from cloned 16S rRNA genes and a time-series of DNA samples from the temperate coastal Santa Barbara Channel. Ecological interpretations of community structure (delineation of depth and seasonality, correlations with environmental factors) were similar across primer sets, while population dynamics varied. We observed substantial differences in relative abundances of taxa known to be poorly resolved by some primer sets, such as Thaumarchaeota and SAR11, and unexpected taxa including Roseobacter clades. Though the magnitude of relative abundances of common OTUs differed between primer sets, the relative abundances of the OTUs were nonetheless strongly correlated. We do not endorse one primer set but rather enumerate strengths and weaknesses to facilitate selection appropriate to a system or experimental goal. While 16S rRNA gene primer bias suggests caution in assessing quantitative population dynamics, community dynamics appear robust across studies using different primers. © 2018 The Authors. Environmental Microbiology published by Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Moran model as a dynamical process on networks and its implications for neutral speciation.

PubMed

de Aguiar, Marcus A M; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2011-09-01

In population genetics, the Moran model describes the neutral evolution of a biallelic gene in a population of haploid individuals subjected to mutations. We show in this paper that this model can be mapped into an influence dynamical process on networks subjected to external influences. The panmictic case considered by Moran corresponds to fully connected networks and can be completely solved in terms of hypergeometric functions. Other types of networks correspond to structured populations, for which approximate solutions are also available. This approach to the classic Moran model leads to a relation between regular networks based on spatial grids and the mechanism of isolation by distance. We discuss the consequences of this connection for topopatric speciation and the theory of neutral speciation and biodiversity. We show that the effect of mutations in structured populations, where individuals can mate only with neighbors, is greatly enhanced with respect to the panmictic case. If mating is further constrained by genetic proximity between individuals, a balance of opposing tendencies takes place: increasing diversity promoted by enhanced effective mutations versus decreasing diversity promoted by similarity between mates. Resolution of large enough opposing tendencies occurs through speciation via pattern formation. We derive an explicit expression that indicates when speciation is possible involving the parameters characterizing the population. We also show that the time to speciation is greatly reduced in comparison with the panmictic case.

Moran model as a dynamical process on networks and its implications for neutral speciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2011-03-01

In population genetics, the Moran model describes the neutral evolution of a biallelic gene in a population of haploid individuals subjected to mutations. We show in this paper that this model can be mapped into an influence dynamical process on networks subjected to external influences. The panmictic case considered by Moran corresponds to fully connected networks and can be completely solved in terms of hypergeometric functions. Other types of networks correspond to structured populations, for which approximate solutions are also available. This approach to the classic Moran model leads to a relation between regular networks based on spatial grids and the mechanism of isolation by distance. We discuss the consequences of this connection for topopatric speciation and the theory of neutral speciation and biodiversity. We show that the effect of mutations in structured populations, where individuals can mate only with neighbors, is greatly enhanced with respect to the panmictic case. If mating is further constrained by genetic proximity between individuals, a balance of opposing tendencies takes place: increasing diversity promoted by enhanced effective mutations versus decreasing diversity promoted by similarity between mates. Resolution of large enough opposing tendencies occurs through speciation via pattern formation. We derive an explicit expression that indicates when speciation is possible involving the parameters characterizing the population. We also show that the time to speciation is greatly reduced in comparison with the panmictic case.

Structured crowding and its effects on enzyme catalysis.

PubMed

Ma, Buyong; Nussinov, Ruth

2013-01-01

Macromolecular crowding decreases the diffusion rate, shifts the equilibrium of protein-protein and protein-substrate interactions, and changes protein conformational dynamics. Collectively, these effects contribute to enzyme catalysis. Here we describe how crowding may bias the conformational change and dynamics of enzyme populations and in this way affect catalysis. Crowding effects have been studied using artificial crowding agents and in vivo-like environments. These studies revealed a correlation between protein dynamics and function in the crowded environment. We suggest that crowded environments be classified into uniform crowding and structured crowding. Uniform crowding represents random crowding conditions created by synthetic particles with a narrow size distribution. Structured crowding refers to the highly coordinated cellular environment, where proteins and other macromolecules are clustered and organized. In structured crowded environments the perturbation of protein thermal stability may be lower; however, it may still be able to modulate functions effectively and dynamically. Dynamic, allosteric enzymes could be more sensitive to cellular perturbations if their free energy landscape is flatter around the native state; on the other hand, if their free energy landscape is rougher, with high kinetic barriers separating deep minima, they could be more robust. Above all, cells are structured; and this holds both for the cytosol and for the membrane environment. The crowded environment is organized, which limits the search, and the crowders are not necessarily inert. More likely, they too transmit allosteric effects, and as such play important functional roles. Overall, structured cellular crowding may lead to higher enzyme efficiency and specificity.

The hypervariable domain of the mitochondrial control region in Atlantic spiny lobsters and its potential as a marker for investigating phylogeographic structuring.

PubMed

Diniz, Fabio M; Maclean, Norman; Ogawa, Masayoshi; Cintra, Israel H A; Bentzen, Paul

2005-01-01

Atlantic spiny lobsters support major fisheries in northeastern Brazilian waters and in the Caribbean Sea. To avoid reduction in diversity and elimination of distinct stocks, understanding their population dynamics, including structuring of populations and genetic diversity, is critical. We here explore the potential of using the hypervariable domain in the control region of the mitochondrial DNA as a genetic marker to characterize population subdivision in spiny lobsters, using Panulirus argus as the species model. The primers designed on the neighboring conserved genes have amplified the entire control region (approx. 780 bases) of P. argus and other closely related species. Average nucleotide and haplotype diversity within P. argus were found to be high, and population structuring was hypothesized. The data suggest a division of P. argus into genetically different phylogeographic groups. The hypervariable domain seems to be useful for determining genetic differentiation of geographically distinct stocks of P. argus and other Atlantic spiny lobsters.

Galactic gamma-ray observations and galactic structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecker, F. W.

1975-01-01

Recent observations of gamma-rays originating in the galactic disk together with radio observations, support an emerging picture of the overall structure of our galaxy with higher interstellar gas densities and star formation rates in a region which corresponds to that of the inner arms. The emerging picture is one where molecular clouds make up the dominant constituent of the interstellar gas in the inner galaxy and play a key role in accounting for the gamma-rays and phenomena associated with the production of young stars and other population 1 objects. In this picture, cosmic rays are associated with supernovae and are primarily of galactic origin. These newly observed phenomena can be understood as consequences of the density wave theories of spiral structure. Based on these new developments, the suggestion is made that a new galactic population class, Population O, be added to the standard Populations 1 and 2 in order to recognize important differences in dynamics and distribution between diffuse galactic H1 and interstellar molecular clouds.

Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models.

PubMed

Ball, Frank; Britton, Tom; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo

2015-03-01

This paper considers metapopulation models in the general sense, i.e. where the population is partitioned into sub-populations (groups, patches,...), irrespective of the biological interpretation they have, e.g. spatially segregated large sub-populations, small households or hosts themselves modelled as populations of pathogens. This framework has traditionally provided an attractive approach to incorporating more realistic contact structure into epidemic models, since it often preserves analytic tractability (in stochastic as well as deterministic models) but also captures the most salient structural inhomogeneity in contact patterns in many applied contexts. Despite the progress that has been made in both the theory and application of such metapopulation models, we present here several major challenges that remain for future work, focusing on models that, in contrast to agent-based ones, are amenable to mathematical analysis. The challenges range from clarifying the usefulness of systems of weakly-coupled large sub-populations in modelling the spread of specific diseases to developing a theory for endemic models with household structure. They include also developing inferential methods for data on the emerging phase of epidemics, extending metapopulation models to more complex forms of human social structure, developing metapopulation models to reflect spatial population structure, developing computationally efficient methods for calculating key epidemiological model quantities, and integrating within- and between-host dynamics in models. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bacterioplankton communities of Crater Lake, OR: Dynamic changes with euphotic zone food web structure and stable deep water populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urbach, E.; Vergin, K.L.; Larson, G.L.; Giovannoni, S.J.

2007-01-01

The distribution of bacterial and archaeal species in Crater Lake plankton varies dramatically over depth and with time, as assessed by hybridization of group-specific oligonucleotides to RNA extracted from lakewater. Nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis of relative bacterial phylotype densities revealed complex relationships among assemblages sampled from depth profiles in July, August and September of 1997 through 1999. CL500-11 green nonsulfur bacteria (Phylum Chloroflexi) and marine Group I crenarchaeota are consistently dominant groups in the oxygenated deep waters at 300 and 500 m. Other phylotypes found in the deep waters are similar to surface and mid-depth populations and vary with time. Euphotic zone assemblages are dominated either by ??-proteobacteria or CL120-10 verrucomicrobia, and ACK4 actinomycetes. MDS analyses of euphotic zone populations in relation to environmental variables and phytoplankton and zooplankton population structures reveal apparent links between Daphnia pulicaria zooplankton population densities and microbial community structure. These patterns may reflect food web interactions that link kokanee salmon population densities to community structure of the bacterioplankton, via fish predation on Daphnia with cascading consequences to Daphnia bacterivory and predation on bacterivorous protists. These results demonstrate a stable bottom-water microbial community. They also extend previous observations of food web-driven changes in euphotic zone bacterioplankton community structure to an oligotrophic setting. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

PubMed

Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

2018-01-01

In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

“Invisible” Conformers of an Antifungal Disulfide Protein Revealed by Constrained Cold and Heat Unfolding, CEST-NMR Experiments, and Molecular Dynamics Calculations

PubMed Central

Fizil, Ádám; Gáspári, Zoltán; Barna, Terézia; Marx, Florentine; Batta, Gyula

2015-01-01

Transition between conformational states in proteins is being recognized as a possible key factor of function. In support of this, hidden dynamic NMR structures were detected in several cases up to populations of a few percent. Here, we show by two- and three-state analysis of thermal unfolding, that the population of hidden states may weight 20–40 % at 298 K in a disulfide-rich protein. In addition, sensitive 15N-CEST NMR experiments identified a low populated (0.15 %) state that was in slow exchange with the folded PAF protein. Remarkably, other techniques failed to identify the rest of the NMR “dark matter”. Comparison of the temperature dependence of chemical shifts from experiments and molecular dynamics calculations suggests that hidden conformers of PAF differ in the loop and terminal regions and are most similar in the evolutionary conserved core. Our observations point to the existence of a complex conformational landscape with multiple conformational states in dynamic equilibrium, with diverse exchange rates presumably responsible for the completely hidden nature of a considerable fraction. PMID:25676351

Population structure and strong divergent selection shape phenotypic diversification in maize landraces.

PubMed

Pressoir, G; Berthaud, J

2004-02-01

To conserve the long-term selection potential of maize, it is necessary to investigate past and present evolutionary processes that have shaped quantitative trait variation. Understanding the dynamics of quantitative trait evolution is crucial to future crop breeding. We characterized population differentiation of maize landraces from the State of Oaxaca, Mexico for quantitative traits and molecular markers. Qst values were much higher than Fst values obtained for molecular markers. While low values of Fst (0.011 within-village and 0.003 among-villages) suggest that considerable gene flow occurred among the studied populations, high levels of population differentiation for quantitative traits were observed (ie an among-village Qst value of 0.535 for kernel weight). Our results suggest that although quantitative traits appear to be under strong divergent selection, a considerable amount of gene flow occurs among populations. Furthermore, we characterized nonproportional changes in the G matrix structure both within and among villages that are consequences of farmer selection. As a consequence of these differences in the G matrix structure, the response to multivariate selection will be different from one population to another. Large changes in the G matrix structure could indicate that farmers select for genes of major and pleiotropic effect. Farmers' decision and selection strategies have a great impact on phenotypic diversification in maize landraces.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

PubMed

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

PubMed

Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

2017-02-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Bendrey, Robin

2017-01-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen. PMID:28386446

Ecological correlates of population genetic structure: a comparative approach using a vertebrate metacommunity.

PubMed

Manier, Mollie K; Arnold, Stevan J

2006-12-07

Identifying ecological factors associated with population genetic differentiation is important for understanding microevolutionary processes and guiding the management of threatened populations. We identified ecological correlates of several population genetic parameters for three interacting species (two garter snakes and an anuran) that occupy a common landscape. Using multiple regression analysis, we found that species interactions were more important in explaining variation in population genetic parameters than habitat and nearest-neighbour characteristics. Effective population size was best explained by census size, while migration was associated with differences in species abundance. In contrast, genetic distance was poorly explained by the ecological correlates that we tested, but geographical distance was prominent in models for all species. We found substantially different population dynamics for the prey species relative to the two predators, characterized by larger effective sizes, lower gene flow and a state of migration-drift equilibrium. We also identified an escarpment formed by a series of block faults that serves as a barrier to dispersal for the predators. Our results suggest that successful landscape-level management should incorporate genetic and ecological data for all relevant species, because even closely associated species can exhibit very different population genetic dynamics on the same landscape.

Structural flexibility of the sulfur mustard molecule at finite temperature from Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Lach, Joanna; Goclon, Jakub; Rodziewicz, Pawel

2016-04-05

Sulfur mustard (SM) is one of the most dangerous chemical compounds used against humans, mostly at war conditions but also in terrorist attacks. Even though the sulfur mustard has been synthesized over a hundred years ago, some of its molecular properties are not yet resolved. We investigate the structural flexibility of the SM molecule in the gas phase by Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics simulations. Thorough conformation analysis of 81 different SM configurations using density functional theory is performed to analyze the behavior of the system at finite temperature. The conformational diversity is analyzed with respect to the formation of intramolecular blue-shifting CH⋯S and CH⋯Cl hydrogen bonds. Molecular dynamics simulations indicate that all structural rearrangements between SM local minima are realized either in direct or non-direct way, including the intermediate structure in the last case. We study the lifetime of the SM conformers and perform the population analysis. Additionally, we provide the anharmonic dynamical finite temperature IR spectrum from the Fourier Transform of the dipole moment autocorrelation function to mimic the missing experimental IR spectrum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics in the presence of quasispecies effects and changing environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forster, Robert Burke

2006-12-01

This thesis explores how natural selection acts on organisms such as viruses that have either highly error-prone reproduction or face variable environmental conditions or both. By modeling population dynamics under these conditions, we gain a better understanding of the selective forces at work, both in our simulations and hopefully also in real organisms. With an understanding of the important factors in natural selection we can forecast not only the immediate fate of an existing population but also in what directions such a population might evolve in the future. We demonstrate that the concept of a quasispecies is relevant to evolution in a neutral fitness landscape. Motivated by RNA viruses such as HIV, we use RNA secondary structure as our model system and find that quasispecies effects arise both rapidly and in realistically small populations. We discover that the evolutionary effects of neutral drift, punctuated equilibrium and the selection for mutational robustness extend to the concept of a quasispecies. In our study of periodic environments, we consider the tradeoffs faced by quasispecies in adapting to environmental change. We develop an analytical model to predict whether evolution favors short-term or long-term adaptation and validate our model through simulation. Our results bear directly on the population dynamics of viruses such as West Nile that alternate between two host species. More generally, we discover that a selective pressure exists under these conditions to fuse or split genes with complementary environmental functions. Lastly, we study the general effects of frequency-dependent selection on two strains competing in a periodic environment. Under very general assumptions, we prove that stable coexistence rather than extinction is the likely outcome. The population dynamics of this system may be as simple as stable equilibrium or as complex as deterministic chaos.

Some like it hot: citrus tristeza virus strains react differently to elevated temperature.

PubMed

Cowell, S J; Harper, S J; Dawson, W O

2016-12-01

Viruses often infect plants as a mixed population. The dynamics of viral populations dictate the success of the infection, yet there is little understanding of the factors that influence them. It is known that temperature can affect individual viruses; could it also affect a virus population? In order to study this, we observed citrus tristeza virus (CTV) populations in different hosts under winter and summer conditions (25 versus 36 °C). We found that only some CTV strains were affected by a higher summer temperature, which lead to a change in CTV population structure, and that this effect was host dependent.

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population.

PubMed

Bijak, Jakub; Kupiszewska, Dorota; Kupiszewski, Marek; Saczuk, Katarzyna; Kicinger, Anna

2007-03-01

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing.

Producing genome structure populations with the dynamic and automated PGS software.

PubMed

Hua, Nan; Tjong, Harianto; Shin, Hanjun; Gong, Ke; Zhou, Xianghong Jasmine; Alber, Frank

2018-05-01

Chromosome conformation capture technologies such as Hi-C are widely used to investigate the spatial organization of genomes. Because genome structures can vary considerably between individual cells of a population, interpreting ensemble-averaged Hi-C data can be challenging, in particular for long-range and interchromosomal interactions. We pioneered a probabilistic approach for the generation of a population of distinct diploid 3D genome structures consistent with all the chromatin-chromatin interaction probabilities from Hi-C experiments. Each structure in the population is a physical model of the genome in 3D. Analysis of these models yields new insights into the causes and the functional properties of the genome's organization in space and time. We provide a user-friendly software package, called PGS, which runs on local machines (for practice runs) and high-performance computing platforms. PGS takes a genome-wide Hi-C contact frequency matrix, along with information about genome segmentation, and produces an ensemble of 3D genome structures entirely consistent with the input. The software automatically generates an analysis report, and provides tools to extract and analyze the 3D coordinates of specific domains. Basic Linux command-line knowledge is sufficient for using this software. A typical running time of the pipeline is ∼3 d with 300 cores on a computer cluster to generate a population of 1,000 diploid genome structures at topological-associated domain (TAD)-level resolution.

Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

PubMed Central

Sinclair, A R E

2003-01-01

The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

Trees wanted--dead or alive! Host selection and population dynamics in tree-killing bark beetles.

PubMed

Kausrud, Kyrre L; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Skarpaas, Olav; Erbilgin, Nadir; Gilbert, Marius; Økland, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2011-01-01

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) feed and breed in dead or severely weakened host trees. When their population densities are high, some species aggregate on healthy host trees so that their defences may be exhausted and the inner bark successfully colonized, killing the tree in the process. Here we investigate under what conditions participating with unrelated conspecifics in risky mass attacks on living trees is an adaptive strategy, and what this can tell us about bark beetle outbreak dynamics. We find that the outcome of individual host selection may deviate from the ideal free distribution in a way that facilitates the emergence of tree-killing (aggressive) behavior, and that any heritability on traits governing aggressiveness seems likely to exist in a state of flux or cycles consistent with variability observed in natural populations. This may have implications for how economically and ecologically important species respond to environmental changes in climate and landscape (forest) structure. The population dynamics emerging from individual behavior are complex, capable of switching between "endemic" and "epidemic" regimes spontaneously or following changes in host availability or resistance. Model predictions are compared to empirical observations, and we identify some factors determining the occurrence and self-limitation of epidemics.

Intestinal Escherichia coli colonization in a mallard duck population over four consecutive winter seasons.

PubMed

Rödiger, Stefan; Kramer, Toni; Frömmel, Ulrike; Weinreich, Jörg; Roggenbuck, Dirk; Guenther, Sebastian; Schaufler, Katharina; Schröder, Christian; Schierack, Peter

2015-09-01

We report the population structure and dynamics of one Escherichia coli population of wild mallard ducks in their natural environment over four winter seasons, following the characterization of 100 isolates each consecutive season. Macro-restriction analysis was used to define isolates variously as multi- or 1-year pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) types. Isolates were characterized genotypically based on virulence-associated genes (VAGs), phylogenetic markers, and phenotypically based on haemolytic activity, antimicrobial resistance, adhesion to epithelial cells, microcin production, motility and carbohydrate metabolism. Only 12 out of 220 PFGE types were detectable over more than one winter, and classified as multi-year PFGE types. There was a dramatic change of PFGE types within two winter seasons. Nevertheless, the genetic pool (VAGs) and antimicrobial resistance pattern remained remarkably stable. The high diversity and dynamics of this E. coli population were also demonstrated by the occurrence of PFGE subtypes and differences between isolates of one PFGE type (based on VAGs, antimicrobial resistance and adhesion rates). Multi- and 1-year PFGE types differed in antimicrobial resistance, VAGs and adhesion. Other parameters were not prominent colonization factors. In conclusion, the high diversity, dynamics and stable genetic pool of an E. coli population seem to enable their successful colonization of host animal population over time. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population Structure of Xylella fastidiosa Associated with Almond Leaf Scorch Disease in the San Joaquin Valley of California.

PubMed

Lin, Hong; Islam, Md Sajedul; Cabrera-La Rosa, Juan C; Civerolo, Edwin L; Groves, Russell L

2015-06-01

Xylella fastidiosa causes disease in many commercial crops, including almond leaf scorch (ALS) disease in susceptible almond (Prunus dulcis). In this study, genetic diversity and population structure of X. fastidiosa associated with ALS disease were evaluated. Isolates obtained from two almond orchards in Fresno and Kern County in the San Joaquin Valley of California were analyzed for two successive years. Multilocus simple-sequence repeat (SSR) analysis revealed two major genetic clusters that were associated with two host cultivars, 'Sonora' and 'Nonpareil', respectively, regardless of the year of study or location of the orchard. These relationships suggest that host cultivar selection and adaptation are major driving forces shaping ALS X. fastidiosa population structure in the San Joaquin Valley. This finding will provide insight into understanding pathogen adaptation and host selection in the context of ALS disease dynamics.

A model for a spatially structured metapopulation accounting for within patch dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Andrew G; McVinish, Ross; Pollett, Philip K

2014-01-01

We develop a stochastic metapopulation model that accounts for spatial structure as well as within patch dynamics. Using a deterministic approximation derived from a functional law of large numbers, we develop conditions for extinction and persistence of the metapopulation in terms of the birth, death and migration parameters. Interestingly, we observe the Allee effect in a metapopulation comprising two patches of greatly different sizes, despite there being decreasing patch specific per-capita birth rates. We show that the Allee effect is due to the way the migration rates depend on the population density of the patches. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extracting temporal and spatial information from remotely sensed data for mapping wildlife habitat: Tucson

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Advised by Marsh, Stuart E.

2002-01-01

The research accomplished in this dissertation used both mathematical and statistical techniques to extract and evaluate measures of landscape temporal dynamics and spatial structure from remotely sensed data for the purpose of mapping wildlife habitat. By coupling the landscape measures gleaned from the remotely sensed data with various sets of animal sightings and population data, effective models of habitat preference were created.Measures of temporal dynamics of vegetation greenness as measured by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite were used to effectively characterize and map season specific habitat of the Sonoran pronghorn antelope, as well as produce preliminary models of potential yellow-billed cuckoo habitat in Arizona. Various measures that capture different aspects of the temporal dynamics of the landscape were derived from AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index composite data using three main classes of calculations: basic statistics, standardized principal components analysis, and Fourier analysis. Pronghorn habitat models based on the AVHRR measures correspond visually and statistically to GIS-based models produced using data that represent detailed knowledge of ground-condition.Measures of temporal dynamics also revealed statistically significant correlations with annual estimates of elk population in selected Arizona Game Management Units, suggesting elk respond to regional environmental changes that can be measured using satellite data. Such relationships, once verified and established, can be used to help indirectly monitor the population.Measures of landscape spatial structure derived from IKONOS high spatial resolution (1-m) satellite data using geostatistics effectively map details of Sonoran pronghorn antelope habitat. Local estimates of the nugget, sill, and range variogram parameters calculated within 25 x 25-meter image windows describe the spatial autocorrelation of the image, permitting classification of all pixels into coherent units whose signature graphs exhibit a classic variogram shape. The variogram parameters captured in these signatures have been shown in previous studies to discriminate between different species-specific vegetation associations.The synoptic view of the landscape provided by satellite data can inform resource management efforts. The ability to characterize the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of habitat using repeatable remote sensing data allows closer monitoring of the relationship between a species and its landscape.

Global population genetic dynamics of a highly migratory, apex predator shark.

PubMed

Bernard, Andrea M; Feldheim, Kevin A; Heithaus, Michael R; Wintner, Sabine P; Wetherbee, Bradley M; Shivji, Mahmood S

2016-11-01

Knowledge of genetic connectivity dynamics in the world's large-bodied, highly migratory, apex predator sharks across their global ranges is limited. One such species, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier), occurs worldwide in warm temperate and tropical waters, uses remarkably diverse habitats (nearshore to pelagic) and possesses a generalist diet that can structure marine ecosystems through top-down processes. We investigated the phylogeography and the global population structure of this exploited, phylogenetically enigmatic shark by using 10 nuclear microsatellites (n = 380) and sequences from the mitochondrial control region (CR, n = 340) and cytochrome oxidase I gene (n = 100). All three marker classes showed the genetic differentiation between tiger sharks from the western Atlantic and Indo-Pacific ocean basins (microsatellite F ST  > 0.129; CR Φ ST  > 0.497), the presence of North vs. southwestern Atlantic differentiation and the isolation of tiger sharks sampled from Hawaii from other surveyed locations. Furthermore, mitochondrial DNA revealed high levels of intraocean basin matrilineal population structure, suggesting female philopatry and sex-biased gene flow. Coalescent- and genetic distance-based estimates of divergence from CR sequences were largely congruent (d corr  = 0.0015-0.0050), indicating a separation of Indo-Pacific and western Atlantic tiger sharks <1 million years ago. Mitochondrial haplotype relationships suggested that the western South Atlantic Ocean was likely a historical connection for interocean basin linkages via the dispersal around South Africa. Together, the results reveal unexpectedly high levels of population structure in a highly migratory, behaviourally generalist, cosmopolitan ocean predator, calling for management and conservation on smaller-than-anticipated spatial scales. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Age-specific infectious period shapes dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Plowright, Raina K; Manlove, Kezia R; Besser, Thomas E; Páez, David J; Andrews, Kimberly R; Matthews, Patrick E; Waits, Lisette P; Hudson, Peter J; Cassirer, E Frances

2017-10-01

Superspreading, the phenomenon where a small proportion of individuals contribute disproportionately to new infections, has profound effects on disease dynamics. Superspreading can arise through variation in contacts, infectiousness or infectious periods. The latter has received little attention, yet it drives the dynamics of many diseases of critical public health, livestock health and conservation concern. Here, we present rare evidence of variation in infectious periods underlying a superspreading phenomenon in a free-ranging wildlife system. We detected persistent infections of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, the primary causative agent of pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), in a small number of older individuals that were homozygous at an immunologically relevant genetic locus. Interactions among age-structure, genetic composition and infectious periods may drive feedbacks in disease dynamics that determine the magnitude of population response to infection. Accordingly, variation in initial conditions may explain divergent population responses to infection that range from recovery to catastrophic decline and extirpation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, A.; Gakkhar, S.

2016-04-01

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. The effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.

Deconvoluting Protein (Un)folding Structural Ensembles Using X-Ray Scattering, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy and Molecular Dynamics Simulation

PubMed Central

Nasedkin, Alexandr; Marcellini, Moreno; Religa, Tomasz L.; Freund, Stefan M.; Menzel, Andreas; Fersht, Alan R.; Jemth, Per; van der Spoel, David; Davidsson, Jan

2015-01-01

The folding and unfolding of protein domains is an apparently cooperative process, but transient intermediates have been detected in some cases. Such (un)folding intermediates are challenging to investigate structurally as they are typically not long-lived and their role in the (un)folding reaction has often been questioned. One of the most well studied (un)folding pathways is that of Drosophila melanogaster Engrailed homeodomain (EnHD): this 61-residue protein forms a three helix bundle in the native state and folds via a helical intermediate. Here we used molecular dynamics simulations to derive sample conformations of EnHD in the native, intermediate, and unfolded states and selected the relevant structural clusters by comparing to small/wide angle X-ray scattering data at four different temperatures. The results are corroborated using residual dipolar couplings determined by NMR spectroscopy. Our results agree well with the previously proposed (un)folding pathway. However, they also suggest that the fully unfolded state is present at a low fraction throughout the investigated temperature interval, and that the (un)folding intermediate is highly populated at the thermal midpoint in line with the view that this intermediate can be regarded to be the denatured state under physiological conditions. Further, the combination of ensemble structural techniques with MD allows for determination of structures and populations of multiple interconverting structures in solution. PMID:25946337

Deconvoluting Protein (Un)folding Structural Ensembles Using X-Ray Scattering, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy and Molecular Dynamics Simulation.

PubMed

Nasedkin, Alexandr; Marcellini, Moreno; Religa, Tomasz L; Freund, Stefan M; Menzel, Andreas; Fersht, Alan R; Jemth, Per; van der Spoel, David; Davidsson, Jan

2015-01-01

The folding and unfolding of protein domains is an apparently cooperative process, but transient intermediates have been detected in some cases. Such (un)folding intermediates are challenging to investigate structurally as they are typically not long-lived and their role in the (un)folding reaction has often been questioned. One of the most well studied (un)folding pathways is that of Drosophila melanogaster Engrailed homeodomain (EnHD): this 61-residue protein forms a three helix bundle in the native state and folds via a helical intermediate. Here we used molecular dynamics simulations to derive sample conformations of EnHD in the native, intermediate, and unfolded states and selected the relevant structural clusters by comparing to small/wide angle X-ray scattering data at four different temperatures. The results are corroborated using residual dipolar couplings determined by NMR spectroscopy. Our results agree well with the previously proposed (un)folding pathway. However, they also suggest that the fully unfolded state is present at a low fraction throughout the investigated temperature interval, and that the (un)folding intermediate is highly populated at the thermal midpoint in line with the view that this intermediate can be regarded to be the denatured state under physiological conditions. Further, the combination of ensemble structural techniques with MD allows for determination of structures and populations of multiple interconverting structures in solution.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glaser, D.; Connolly, J.; Berghoffen, A.

The resident bald eagles of the lower Columbia River have lower productivity and higher contaminant levels than other bald eagles of the Pacific Northwest. The primary population stressors are believed to be habitat loss, human disturbance, p,p{prime}DDE, PCBs, dioxins and furans. The primary effect of habitat loss is to reduce the carrying capacity of the region for nesting sites, and the primary effects of human disturbance and contamination by organic compounds are to reduce productivity. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the effects of all of, these potential stressors on the bald eagle population dynamics. A modelmore » of the population dynamics was developed. The model structure includes a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) submodel to estimate the degree of contamination, which is linked via a toxicology submodel to a population dynamics submodel. The PBTK submodel is time-variable, incorporating species-specific bioenergetics, as well as contaminant assimilation and excretion rates for each compound of interest. Calculated body burdens and egg concentrations for each compound account for spatial and temporal variations in feeding habits and prey contaminant levels. The population submodel includes fecundity and survival information, as well as a limit to the number of breeding pairs (carrying capacity) and a population of non-breeding subadults and adults (floaters). Model simulations are performed in a Monte Carlo framework. Results include estimates of the persistence, resistance and resilience of the population: the probability of extinction, the relationship between magnitude of stress and change in population size, and the time course of recovery of a population following a reduction in stress.« less

Investigating genetic diversity and habitat dynamics in Plantago brutia (Plantaginaceae), implications for the management of narrow endemics in Mediterranean mountain pastures.

PubMed

De Vita, A; Bernardo, L; Gargano, D; Palermo, A M; Peruzzi, L; Musacchio, A

2009-11-01

Many factors have contributed to the richness of narrow endemics in the Mediterranean, including long-lasting human impact on pristine landscapes. The abandonment of traditional land-use practices is causing forest recovery throughout the Mediterranean mountains, by increasing reduction and fragmentation of open habitats. We investigated the population genetic structure and habitat dynamics of Plantago brutia Ten., a narrow endemic in mountain pastures of S Italy. Some plants were cultivated in the botanical garden to explore the species' breeding system. Genetic diversity was evaluated based on inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) polymorphisms in 150 individuals from most of known stands. Recent dynamics in the species habitat were checked over a 14-year period. Flower phenology, stigma receptivity and experimental pollinations revealed protogyny and self-incompatibility. With the exception of very small and isolated populations, high genetic diversity was found at the species and population level. amova revealed weak differentiation among populations, and the Mantel test suggested absence of isolation-by-distance. Multivariate analysis of population and genetic data distinguished the populations based on genetic richness, size and isolation. Landscape analyses confirmed recent reduction and isolation of potentially suitable habitats. Low selfing, recent isolation and probable seed exchange may have preserved P. brutia populations from higher loss of genetic diversity. Nonetheless, data related to very small populations suggest that this species may suffer further fragmentation and isolation. To preserve most of the species' genetic richness, future management efforts should consider the large and isolated populations recognised in our analyses.

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

Genetic diversity, genetic structure and demographic history of Cycas simplicipinna (Cycadaceae) assessed by DNA sequences and SSR markers

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cycas simplicipinna (T. Smitinand) K. Hill. (Cycadaceae) is an endangered species in China. There were seven populations and 118 individuals that we could collect were genotyped in this study. Here, we assessed the genetic diversity, genetic structure and demographic history of this species. Results Analyses of data of DNA sequences (two maternally inherited intergenic spacers of chloroplast, cpDNA and one biparentally inherited internal transcribed spacer region ITS4-ITS5, nrDNA) and sixteen microsatellite loci (SSR) were conducted in the species. Of the 118 samples, 86 individuals from the seven populations were used for DNA sequencing and 115 individuals from six populations were used for the microsatellite study. We found high genetic diversity at the species level, low genetic diversity within each of the seven populations and high genetic differentiation among the populations. There was a clear genetic structure within populations of C. simplicipinna. A demographic history inferred from DNA sequencing data indicates that C. simplicipinna experienced a recent population contraction without retreating to a common refugium during the last glacial period. The results derived from SSR data also showed that C. simplicipinna underwent past effective population contraction, likely during the Pleistocene. Conclusions Some genetic features of C. simplicipinna such as having high genetic differentiation among the populations, a clear genetic structure and a recent population contraction could provide guidelines for protecting this endangered species from extinction. Furthermore, the genetic features with population dynamics of the species in our study would help provide insights and guidelines for protecting other endangered species effectively. PMID:25016306

Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households

PubMed Central

Ross, Joshua V.; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt J.

2010-01-01

Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks. PMID:20305791

Genetic population structure of Shoal Bass within their native range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Andrew T.; Tringali, Michael D.; Sammons, Steven M.; Ingram, Travis R.; O'Rouke, Patrick M.; Peterson, Douglas L.; Long, James M.

2018-01-01

Endemic to the Apalachicola River basin of the southeastern USA, the Shoal Bass Micropterus cataractae is a fluvial‐specialist sport fish that is imperiled because of anthropogenic habitat alteration. To counter population declines, restorative stocking efforts are becoming an increasingly relevant management strategy. However, population genetic structure within the species is currently unknown, but it could influence management decisions, such as brood source location. Leveraging a collaborative effort to collect and genotype specimens with 16 microsatellite loci, our objective was to characterize hierarchical population structure and genetic differentiation of the Shoal Bass across its native range, including an examination of structuring mechanisms, such as relatedness and inbreeding levels. Specimens identified as Shoal Bass were collected from 13 distinct sites (N ranged from 17 to 209 per location) and were then taxonomically screened to remove nonnative congeners and hybrids (pure Shoal Bass N ranged from 13 to 183 per location). Our results revealed appreciable population structure, with five distinct Shoal Bass populations identifiable at the uppermost hierarchical level that generally corresponded with natural geographic features and anthropogenic barriers. Substructure was recovered within several of these populations, wherein differences appeared related to spatial isolation and local population dynamics. An analysis of molecular variance revealed that 3.6% of the variation in our data set was accounted for among three larger river drainages, but substructure within each river drainage also explained an additional 8.9% of genetic variation, demonstrating that management at a scale lower than the river drainage level would likely best conserve genetic diversity. Results provide a population genetic framework that can inform future management decisions, such as brood source location, so that genetic diversity within and among populations is conserved and overall adaptability of the species is maintained.

Longevity of clonal plants: why it matters and how to measure it

PubMed Central

de Witte, Lucienne C.; Stöcklin, Jürg

2010-01-01

Background Species' life-history and population dynamics are strongly shaped by the longevity of individuals, but life span is one of the least accessible demographic traits, particularly in clonal plants. Continuous vegetative reproduction of genets enables persistence despite low or no sexual reproduction, affecting genet turnover rates and population stability. Therefore, the longevity of clonal plants is of considerable biological interest, but remains relatively poorly known. Scope Here, we critically review the present knowledge on the longevity of clonal plants and discuss its importance for population persistence. Direct life-span measurements such as growth-ring analysis in woody plants are relatively easy to take, although, for many clonal plants, these methods are not adequate due to the variable growth pattern of ramets and difficult genet identification. Recently, indirect methods have been introduced in which genet size and annual shoot increments are used to estimate genet age. These methods, often based on molecular techniques, allow the investigation of genet size and age structure of whole populations, a crucial issue for understanding their viability and persistence. However, indirect estimates of clonal longevity are impeded because the process of ageing in clonal plants is still poorly understood and because their size and age are not always well correlated. Alternative estimators for genet life span such as somatic mutations have recently been suggested. Conclusions Empirical knowledge on the longevity of clonal species has increased considerably in the last few years. Maximum age estimates are an indicator of population persistence, but are not sufficient to evaluate turnover rates and the ability of long-lived clonal plants to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience. In order to understand the dynamics of populations it will be necessary to measure genet size and age structure, not only life spans of single individuals, and to use such data for modelling of genet dynamics. PMID:20880935

Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City

PubMed Central

Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F.; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2016-01-01

For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world’s deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the short-term. PMID:26793189

Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City.

PubMed

Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2015-01-01

For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the short-term.

Coherent fifth-order visible-infrared spectroscopies: ultrafast nonequilibrium vibrational dynamics in solution.

PubMed

Lynch, Michael S; Slenkamp, Karla M; Cheng, Mark; Khalil, Munira

2012-07-05

Obtaining a detailed description of photochemical reactions in solution requires measuring time-evolving structural dynamics of transient chemical species on ultrafast time scales. Time-resolved vibrational spectroscopies are sensitive probes of molecular structure and dynamics in solution. In this work, we develop doubly resonant fifth-order nonlinear visible-infrared spectroscopies to probe nonequilibrium vibrational dynamics among coupled high-frequency vibrations during an ultrafast charge transfer process using a heterodyne detection scheme. The method enables the simultaneous collection of third- and fifth-order signals, which respectively measure vibrational dynamics occurring on electronic ground and excited states on a femtosecond time scale. Our data collection and analysis strategy allows transient dispersed vibrational echo (t-DVE) and dispersed pump-probe (t-DPP) spectra to be extracted as a function of electronic and vibrational population periods with high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N > 25). We discuss how fifth-order experiments can measure (i) time-dependent anharmonic vibrational couplings, (ii) nonequilibrium frequency-frequency correlation functions, (iii) incoherent and coherent vibrational relaxation and transfer dynamics, and (iv) coherent vibrational and electronic (vibronic) coupling as a function of a photochemical reaction.

[Dynamic of marriage structure in three cities of Ukraine from 1960 to 1992].

PubMed

Timchenko, O I; Omel'chenko, E M; Nikula, E T

2000-04-01

Marriage structure was studied in the city of Kiev and in two cities of the Sumy oblast, Shostka and Trostyanets. Ethnic affiliations and birthplaces of persons contracting marriage were analyzed as the main characteristics of population genetic diversity. The ethnic composition of persons contracting marriage and the proportions of mono- and interethnic marriages remained almost unchanged during one generation. The majority of the persons contracting marriage were Ukrainians (66-91%); among other ethnic groups, only Russians considerably contributed to ethnic diversity (up to 26%). During the period studied, coefficients of marital migration substantially decreased in Kiev (from 0.66-0.82 to 0.34) and Shostka (from 0.72 to 0.52) and changed only insignificantly in Trostyanets. Outbreeding was estimated based on the migration parameters, exogamy level, and marital migration distances. The outbreeding level in the Shostka population (100,000 people) was comparable with that for the considerably larger Kiev population (two million people); however, it was significantly higher than that for the Trostyanets population, the size of which was close to the size of the Shostka population. It is supposed that "migration stress" may unfavorably affect the adaptive genetic structure of the Shostka population.

Pollen-mediated gene flow and fine-scale spatial genetic structure in Olea europaea subsp. europaea var. sylvestris

PubMed Central

Piotti, A.; Satovic, Z.; de la Rosa, R.; Belaj, A.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims Wild olive (Olea europaea subsp. europaea var. sylvestris) is important from an economic and ecological point of view. The effects of anthropogenic activities may lead to the genetic erosion of its genetic patrimony, which has high value for breeding programmes. In particular, the consequences of the introgression from cultivated stands are strongly dependent on the extent of gene flow and therefore this work aims at quantitatively describing contemporary gene flow patterns in wild olive natural populations. Methods The studied wild population is located in an undisturbed forest, in southern Spain, considered one of the few extant hotspots of true oleaster diversity. A total of 225 potential father trees and seeds issued from five mother trees were genotyped by eight microsatellite markers. Levels of contemporary pollen flow, in terms of both pollen immigration rates and within-population dynamics, were measured through paternity analyses. Moreover, the extent of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) was studied to assess the relative importance of seed and pollen dispersal in shaping the spatial distribution of genetic variation. Key Results The results showed that the population under study is characterized by a high genetic diversity, a relatively high pollen immigration rate (0·57), an average within-population pollen dispersal of about 107 m and weak but significant SGS up to 40 m. The population is a mosaic of several intermingled genetic clusters that is likely to be generated by spatially restricted seed dispersal. Moreover, wild oleasters were found to be self-incompatible and preferential mating between some genotypes was revealed. Conclusions Knowledge of the within-population genetic structure and gene flow dynamics will lead to identifying possible strategies aimed at limiting the effect of anthropogenic activities and improving breeding programmes for the conservation of olive tree forest genetic resources. PMID:28028015

Pollen-mediated gene flow and fine-scale spatial genetic structure in Olea europaea subsp. europaea var. sylvestris.

PubMed

Beghè, D; Piotti, A; Satovic, Z; de la Rosa, R; Belaj, A

2017-03-01

Wild olive ( Olea europaea subsp. europaea var. sylvestris ) is important from an economic and ecological point of view. The effects of anthropogenic activities may lead to the genetic erosion of its genetic patrimony, which has high value for breeding programmes. In particular, the consequences of the introgression from cultivated stands are strongly dependent on the extent of gene flow and therefore this work aims at quantitatively describing contemporary gene flow patterns in wild olive natural populations. The studied wild population is located in an undisturbed forest, in southern Spain, considered one of the few extant hotspots of true oleaster diversity. A total of 225 potential father trees and seeds issued from five mother trees were genotyped by eight microsatellite markers. Levels of contemporary pollen flow, in terms of both pollen immigration rates and within-population dynamics, were measured through paternity analyses. Moreover, the extent of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) was studied to assess the relative importance of seed and pollen dispersal in shaping the spatial distribution of genetic variation. The results showed that the population under study is characterized by a high genetic diversity, a relatively high pollen immigration rate (0·57), an average within-population pollen dispersal of about 107 m and weak but significant SGS up to 40 m. The population is a mosaic of several intermingled genetic clusters that is likely to be generated by spatially restricted seed dispersal. Moreover, wild oleasters were found to be self-incompatible and preferential mating between some genotypes was revealed. Knowledge of the within-population genetic structure and gene flow dynamics will lead to identifying possible strategies aimed at limiting the effect of anthropogenic activities and improving breeding programmes for the conservation of olive tree forest genetic resources. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Comparative Genetic Structure and Demographic History in Endemic Galápagos Weevils

PubMed Central

Stepien, Courtney C.; Sijapati, Manisha; Roque Albelo, Lázaro

2012-01-01

The challenge of maintaining genetic diversity within populations can be exacerbated for island endemics if they display population dynamics and behavioral attributes that expose them to genetic drift without the benefits of gene flow. We assess patterns of the genetic structure and demographic history in 27 populations of 9 species of flightless endemic Galápagos weevils from 9 of the islands and 1 winged introduced close relative. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA reveals a significant population structure and moderately variable, though demographically stable, populations for lowland endemics (FST = 0.094–0.541; π: 0.014–0.042; Mismatch P = 0.003–0.026; and D(Tajima) = −0.601 to 1.203), in contrast to signals of past contractions and expansions in highland specialists on 2 islands (Mismatch P = 0.003–0.026 and D(Tajima) = −0.601 to 1.203). We interpret this series of variable and highly structured population groups as a system of long-established, independently founded island units, where structuring could be a signal of microallopatric differentiation due to patchy host plant distribution and poor dispersal abilities. We suggest that the severe reduction and subsequent increase of a suitably moist habitat that accompanied past climatic variation could have contributed to the observed population fluctuations in highland specialists. We propose the future exploration of hybridization between the introduced and highland endemic species on Santa Cruz, especially given the expansion of the introduced species into the highlands, the sensitivity to past climatic variation detected in highland populations, and the potentially threatened state of single-island endemics. PMID:22174444

Discrete and continuum links to a nonlinear coupled transport problem of interacting populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duong, M. H.; Muntean, A.; Richardson, O. M.

2017-07-01

We are interested in exploring interacting particle systems that can be seen as microscopic models for a particular structure of coupled transport flux arising when different populations are jointly evolving. The scenarios we have in mind are inspired by the dynamics of pedestrian flows in open spaces and are intimately connected to cross-diffusion and thermo-diffusion problems holding a variational structure. The tools we use include a suitable structure of the relative entropy controlling TV-norms, the construction of Lyapunov functionals and particular closed-form solutions to nonlinear transport equations, a hydrodynamics limiting procedure due to Philipowski, as well as the construction of numerical approximates to both the continuum limit problem in 2D and to the original interacting particle systems.

Characterization of polymorphic microsatellites for the invasive grass Microstegium vimineum (Poaceae).

PubMed

Novy, Ari; Flory, S Luke; Honig, Joshua A; Bonos, Stacy; Hartman, Jean Marie

2012-02-01

Microsatellite markers were developed for the invasive plant Microstegium vimineum (Poaceae) to assess its population structure and to facilitate tracking of invasion expansion. Using 454 sequencing, 11 polymorphic and six monomorphic microsatellite primer sets were developed for M. vimineum. The primer sets were tested on individuals sampled from six populations in the United States and China. The polymorphic primers amplified di-, tri-, and tetranucleotide repeats with three to 10 alleles per locus. These markers will be useful for a variety of applications including tracking of invasion dynamics and population genetics studies.

Altruistic aging: The evolutionary dynamics balancing longevity and evolvability.

PubMed

Herrera, Minette; Miller, Aaron; Nishimura, Joel

2017-04-01

Altruism is typically associated with traits or behaviors that benefit the population as a whole, but are costly to the individual. We propose that, when the environment is rapidly changing, senescence (age-related deterioration) can be altruistic. According to numerical simulations of an agent-based model, while long-lived individuals can outcompete their short lived peers, populations composed of long-lived individuals are more likely to go extinct during periods of rapid environmental change. Moreover, as in many situations where other cooperative behavior arises, senescence can be stabilized in a structured population.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Double Trouble at High Density: Cross-Level Test of Resource-Related Adaptive Plasticity and Crowding-Related Fitness

PubMed Central

Gergs, André; Preuss, Thomas G.; Palmqvist, Annemette

2014-01-01

Population size is often regulated by negative feedback between population density and individual fitness. At high population densities, animals run into double trouble: they might concurrently suffer from overexploitation of resources and also from negative interference among individuals regardless of resource availability, referred to as crowding. Animals are able to adapt to resource shortages by exhibiting a repertoire of life history and physiological plasticities. In addition to resource-related plasticity, crowding might lead to reduced fitness, with consequences for individual life history. We explored how different mechanisms behind resource-related plasticity and crowding-related fitness act independently or together, using the water flea Daphnia magna as a case study. For testing hypotheses related to mechanisms of plasticity and crowding stress across different biological levels, we used an individual-based population model that is based on dynamic energy budget theory. Each of the hypotheses, represented by a sub-model, is based on specific assumptions on how the uptake and allocation of energy are altered under conditions of resource shortage or crowding. For cross-level testing of different hypotheses, we explored how well the sub-models fit individual level data and also how well they predict population dynamics under different conditions of resource availability. Only operating resource-related and crowding-related hypotheses together enabled accurate model predictions of D. magna population dynamics and size structure. Whereas this study showed that various mechanisms might play a role in the negative feedback between population density and individual life history, it also indicated that different density levels might instigate the onset of the different mechanisms. This study provides an example of how the integration of dynamic energy budget theory and individual-based modelling can facilitate the exploration of mechanisms behind the regulation of population size. Such understanding is important for assessment, management and the conservation of populations and thereby biodiversity in ecosystems. PMID:24626228

Competition in size-structured populations: mechanisms inducing cohort formation and population cycles.

PubMed

de Roos, André M; Persson, Lennart

2003-02-01

In this paper we investigate the consequences of size-dependent competition among the individuals of a consumer population by analyzing the dynamic properties of a physiologically structured population model. Only 2 size-classes of individuals are distinguished: juveniles and adults. Juveniles and adults both feed on one and the same resource and hence interact by means of exploitative competition. Juvenile individuals allocate all assimilated energy into development and mature on reaching a fixed developmental threshold. The combination of this fixed threshold and the resource-dependent developmental rate, implies that the juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction may vary in time. Adult individuals allocate all assimilated energy to reproduction. Mortality of both juveniles and adults is assumed to be inversely proportional to the amount of energy assimilated. In this setting we study how the dynamics of the population are influenced by the relative foraging capabilities of juveniles and adults. In line with results that we previously obtained in size-structured consumer-resource models with pulsed reproduction, population cycles primarily occur when either juveniles or adults have a distinct competitive advantage. When adults have a larger per capita feeding rate and are hence competitively superior to juveniles, population oscillations occur that are primarily induced by the fact that the duration of the juvenile period changes with changing food conditions. These cycles do not occur when the juvenile delay is a fixed parameter. When juveniles are competitively superior, two different types of population fluctuations can occur: (1) rapid, low-amplitude fluctuations having a period of half the juvenile delay and (2) slow, large-amplitude fluctuations characterized by a period, which is roughly equal to the juvenile delay. The analysis of simplified versions of the structured model indicates that these two types of oscillations also occur if mortality and/or development is independent of food density, i.e. in a situation with a constant juvenile developmental delay and a constant, food-independent background mortality. Thus, the oscillations that occur when juveniles are more competitive are induced by the juvenile delay per se. When juveniles exert a larger foraging pressure on the shared resource, maturation implies an increase not only in adult density, but also in food density and consequently fecundity. Our analysis suggests that this correlation in time between adult density and fecundity is crucial for the occurrence of population cycles when juveniles are competitively superior.

Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

PubMed

Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

2017-09-01

A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify key sex-age classes contributing to demographic variance and thus decreasing N e /N in a small age-structured population inhabiting a variable environment. They thereby demonstrate how assessments of N e can incorporate stochastic sex- and age-specific demography and elucidate key demographic processes affecting a population's evolutionary trajectory and viability. Furthermore, our analyses show that N e for the focal chough population is critically small, implying that management to re-establish genetic connectivity may be required to ensure population viability. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Subpicosecond X rotations of atomic clock states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yunheung; Lee, Han-gyeol; Kim, Hyosub; Jo, Hanlae; Ahn, Jaewook

2018-05-01

We demonstrate subpicosecond-timescale population transfer between the pair of hyperfine ground states of atomic rubidium using a single laser-pulse. Our scheme utilizes the geometric and dynamic phases induced during Rabi oscillation through the fine-structure excited state to construct an X rotation gate for the hyperfine-state qubit system. The experiment performed with a femtosecond laser and cold rubidium atoms, in a magnetooptical trap, shows over 98% maximal population transfer between the clock states.

Extreme Genetic Structure in a Small-Bodied Freshwater Fish, the Purple Spotted Gudgeon, Mogurnda adspersa (Eleotridae)

PubMed Central

Hughes, Jane M.; Real, Kathryn M.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Schmidt, Daniel J.

2012-01-01

Freshwater fish are a group that is especially susceptible to biodiversity loss as they often exist naturally in small, fragmented populations that are vulnerable to habitat degradation, pollution and introduction of exotic species. Relatively little is known about spatial dynamics of unperturbed populations of small-bodied freshwater fish species. This study examined population genetic structure of the purple spotted gudgeon (Mogurnda adspersa, Eleotridae), a small-bodied freshwater fish that is widely distributed in eastern Australia. The species is threatened in parts of its range but is common in coastal streams of central Queensland where this study took place. Microsatellite (msat) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation was assessed for nine sites from four stream sections in two drainage basins. Very high levels of among population structure were observed (msat F ST = 0.18; mtDNA ΦST = 0.85) and evidence for contemporary migration among populations was rare and limited to sites within the same section of stream. Hierarchical structuring of variation was best explained by stream section rather than by drainage basin. Estimates of contemporary effective population size for each site was low (range 28 – 63, Sibship method), but compared favorably with similar estimates for other freshwater fish species, and there was no genetic evidence for inbreeding or recent population bottlenecks. In conclusion, within a stable part of its range, M adspersa exists as a series of small, demographically stable populations that are highly isolated from one another. Complimentary patterns in microsatellites and mtDNA indicate this structuring is the result of long-term processes that have developed over a remarkably small spatial scale. High population structure and limited dispersal mean that recolonisation of locally extinct populations is only likely to occur from closely situated populations within stream sections. Limited potential for recolonisation should be considered as an important factor in conservation and management of this species. PMID:22808190

Sequence selection by dynamical symmetry breaking in an autocatalytic binary polymer model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellermann, Harold; Tanaka, Shinpei; Rasmussen, Steen

2017-12-01

Template-directed replication of nucleic acids is at the essence of all living beings and a major milestone for any origin of life scenario. We present an idealized model of prebiotic sequence replication, where binary polymers act as templates for their autocatalytic replication, thereby serving as each others reactants and products in an intertwined molecular ecology. Our model demonstrates how autocatalysis alters the qualitative and quantitative system dynamics in counterintuitive ways. Most notably, numerical simulations reveal a very strong intrinsic selection mechanism that favors the appearance of a few population structures with highly ordered and repetitive sequence patterns when starting from a pool of monomers. We demonstrate both analytically and through simulation how this "selection of the dullest" is caused by continued symmetry breaking through random fluctuations in the transient dynamics that are amplified by autocatalysis and eventually propagate to the population level. The impact of these observations on related prebiotic mathematical models is discussed.

Plasmodium vivax population structure and transmission dynamics in Sabah Malaysia.

PubMed

Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

2013-01-01

Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A (S) >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A (S)  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A (S) = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination.

Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

PubMed Central

Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

2013-01-01

Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination. PMID:24358203

A Hierarchical Approach Embedding Hydrologic and Population Modeling for a West Nile Virus Vector Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, Y.; Silvestri, S.; Marani, M.; Saltarin, A.; Chillemi, G.

2012-12-01

We applied a hierarchical state space model to predict the abundance of Cx.pipiens (a West Nile Virus vector) in the Po River Delta Region, Northeastern Italy. The study area has large mosquito abundance, due to a favorable environment and climate as well as dense human population. Mosquito data were collected on a weekly basis at more than 20 sites from May to September in 2010 and 2011. Cx.pipiens was the dominant species in our samples, accounting for about 90% of the more than 300,000 total captures. The hydrological component of the model accounted for evapotranspiration, infiltration and deep percolation to infer, in a 0D context, the local dynamics of soil moisture as a direct exogenous forcing of mosquito dynamics. The population model had a Gompertz structure, which included exogenous meteorological forcings and delayed internal dynamics. The models were coupled within a hierarchical statistical structure to overcome the relatively short length of the samples by exploiting the large number of concurrent observations available. The results indicated that Cx.pipiens abundance had significant density dependence at 1 week lag, which approximately matched its development time from larvae to adult. Among the exogenous controls, temperature, daylight hours, and soil moisture explained most of the dynamics. Longer daylight hours and lower soil moisture values resulted in higher abundance. The negative correlation of soil moisture and mosquito population can be explained with the abundance of water in the region (e.g. due to irrigation) and the preference for eutrophic habitats by Cx.pipien. Variations among sites were explained by land use factors as represented by distance to the nearest rice field and NDVI values: the carrying capacity decreased with increased distance to the nearest rice filed, while the maximum growth rate was positively related with NDVI. The model shows a satisfactory performance in predicting (potentially one week in advance) mosquito abundance and particularly its peak timing and magnitude.

Genetic Variability and Geographic Diversity of the Common Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) Populations from the Midwest Using Microsatellite Markers.

PubMed

Narain, Ralph B; Lalithambika, Sreedevi; Kamble, Shripat T

2015-07-01

With the recent global resurgence of the bed bugs (Cimex lectularius L.), there is a need to better understand its biology, ecology, and ability to establish populations. Bed bugs are domestic pests that feed mainly on mammalian blood. Although bed bugs have not been implicated as vectors of pathogens, their biting activity inflicts severe insomnia and allergic reactions. Moreover, they have recently developed resistance to various insecticides, which requires further molecular research to determine genetic variation and appropriate interventions. Population dynamics, including genetic differentiation and genetic distance of 10 populations from the Midwest were analyzed in this study. The bed bug samples collected by pest control companies were genotyped using eight species-specific microsatellite markers. Results showed all eight markers were polymorphic, with 8-16 alleles per locus, suggesting high genetic diversity. The FST values were >0.25, signifying pronounced genetic differentiation. The G-test results also indicated high genetic differentiation among populations. The frequency of the most common allele across all eight loci was 0.42. The coefficient of relatedness between each of the populations was >0.5, indicative of sibling or parent-offspring relationships, while the FIS and its confidence interval values were statistically insignificant within the populations tested. The populations departed from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, possibly because of high heterozygosity. The genetic distance analysis using a neighbor-joining tree showed that the populations from Kansas City, MO, were genetically separate from most of those from Nebraska, indicating a geographic pattern of genetic structure. Our study demonstrated the effectiveness of using microsatellite markers to study bed bugs population structure, thereby improving our understanding of bed bug population dynamics in the Midwest. Overall, this study showed a high genetic diversity and identified several new alleles in the bed bug populations in the Midwest. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dynamic social networks based on movement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scharf, Henry; Hooten, Mevin B.; Fosdick, Bailey K.; Johnson, Devin S.; London, Joshua M.; Durban, John W.

2016-01-01

Network modeling techniques provide a means for quantifying social structure in populations of individuals. Data used to define social connectivity are often expensive to collect and based on case-specific, ad hoc criteria. Moreover, in applications involving animal social networks, collection of these data is often opportunistic and can be invasive. Frequently, the social network of interest for a given population is closely related to the way individuals move. Thus, telemetry data, which are minimally invasive and relatively inexpensive to collect, present an alternative source of information. We develop a framework for using telemetry data to infer social relationships among animals. To achieve this, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with an underlying dynamic social network controlling movement of individuals via two mechanisms: an attractive effect and an aligning effect. We demonstrate the model and its ability to accurately identify complex social behavior in simulation, and apply our model to telemetry data arising from killer whales. Using auxiliary information about the study population, we investigate model validity and find the inferred dynamic social network is consistent with killer whale ecology and expert knowledge.

High levels of diversity and population structure in the potato late blight pathogen at the Mexico centre of origin.

PubMed

Wang, Jianan; Fernández-Pavía, Sylvia P; Larsen, Meredith M; Garay-Serrano, Edith; Gregorio-Cipriano, Rosario; Rodríguez-Alvarado, Gerardo; Grünwald, Niklaus J; Goss, Erica M

2017-02-01

Globally destructive crop pathogens often emerge by migrating out of their native ranges. These pathogens are often diverse at their centre of origin and may exhibit adaptive variation in the invaded range via multiple introductions from different source populations. However, source populations are generally unidentified or poorly studied compared to invasive populations. Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of late blight, is one of the most costly pathogens of potato and tomato worldwide. Mexico is the centre of origin and diversity of P. infestans and migration events out of Mexico have enormously impacted disease dynamics in North America and Europe. The debate over the origin of the pathogen, and population studies of P. infestans in Mexico, has focused on the Toluca Valley, whereas neighbouring regions have been little studied. We examined the population structure of P. infestans across central Mexico, including samples from Michoacán, Tlaxcala and Toluca. We found high levels of diversity consistent with sexual reproduction in Michoacán and Tlaxcala and population subdivision that was strongly associated with geographic region. We determined that population structure in central Mexico has contributed to diversity in introduced populations based on relatedness of U.S. clonal lineages to Mexican isolates from different regions. Our results suggest that P. infestans exists as a metapopulation in central Mexico, and this population structure could be contributing to the repeated re-emergence of P. infestans in the United States and elsewhere. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Swarming Patterns in a Two-Dimensional Kinematic Model for Biological Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topaz, Chad

2004-03-01

We construct a continuum model for the motion of biological organisms experiencing social interactions and study its pattern-forming behavior. The model takes the form of a conservation law in two spatial dimensions. Social interactions are modeled in the velocity term, which is nonlocal in the population density. The dynamics of the model may be uniquely decomposed into incompressible motion and potential motion. For the purely incompressible case, the model resembles that for fluid dynamical vortex patches. There exist solutions that have constant population density and compact support for all time. Numerical simulations produce rotating structures with circular cores and spiral arms, reminiscent of naturally observed swarms such as ant mills. For the purely potential case, the model resembles a nonlocal (forwards or backwards) porous media equation, describing aggregation or dispersion of the population. For the aggregative case, the population clumps into regions of high and low density with a predictable characteristic length scale that is confirmed by numerical simulations.

Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2018-02-01

Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

BIOACCUMULATION AND AQUATIC SYSTEM SIMULATOR (BASS) USER'S MANUAL BETA TEST VERSION 2.1

EPA Science Inventory

BASS (Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator) is a Fortran 95 simulation program that predicts the population and bioaccumulation dynamics of age-structured fish assemblages that are exposed to hydrophobic organic pollutants and class B and borderline metals that complex wi...

Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

DOE PAGES

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

2015-09-14

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

Cholera and shigellosis in Bangladesh: similarities and differences in population dynamics under climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascual, M.; Cash, B.; Reiner, R.; King, A.; Emch, M.; Yunus, M.; Faruque, A. S.

2012-12-01

The influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such, has been previously addressed for cholera with temporal models that do not incorporate fine-scale spatial structure. In our previous work, evidence for a role of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on cholera in Bangladesh was elucidated, and shown to influence the regional climate through precipitation. With a probabilistic spatial model for cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, we found that the action of climate variability (ENSO and flooding) is localized: there is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. Here, we consider long-term surveillance data for shigellosis, another diarrheal disease that coexists with cholera in Bangladesh. We compare the patterns of association with climate variables for these two diseases in a rural setting, as well as the spatial structure in their spatio-temporal dynamics in an urban one. Evidence for similar patterns is presented, and discussed in the context of the differences in the routes of transmission of the two diseases and the proposed role of an environmental reservoir in cholera. The similarities provide evidence for a more general influence of hydrology and of socio-economic factors underlying human susceptibility and sanitary conditions.

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies

PubMed Central

Betti, M. I.; Wahl, L. M.

2016-01-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of ‘spring dwindle’, which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past. PMID:28018627

Exploring space-time structure of human mobility in urban space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, J. B.; Yuan, J.; Wang, Y.; Si, H. B.; Shan, X. M.

2011-03-01

Understanding of human mobility in urban space benefits the planning and provision of municipal facilities and services. Due to the high penetration of cell phones, mobile cellular networks provide information for urban dynamics with a large spatial extent and continuous temporal coverage in comparison with traditional approaches. The original data investigated in this paper were collected by cellular networks in a southern city of China, recording the population distribution by dividing the city into thousands of pixels. The space-time structure of urban dynamics is explored by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the original data, from temporal and spatial perspectives between which there is a dual relation. Based on the results of the analysis, we have discovered four underlying rules of urban dynamics: low intrinsic dimensionality, three categories of common patterns, dominance of periodic trends, and temporal stability. It implies that the space-time structure can be captured well by remarkably few temporal or spatial predictable periodic patterns, and the structure unearthed by PCA evolves stably over time. All these features play a critical role in the applications of forecasting and anomaly detection.

Thousands of Stellar SiO masers in the Galactic center: The Bulge Asymmetries and Dynamic Evolution (BAaDE) survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjouwerman, Loránt O.; Pihlström, Ylva M.; Rich, R. Michael; Morris, Mark R.; Claussen, Mark J.

2017-01-01

A radio survey of red giant SiO sources in the inner Galaxy and bulge is not hindered by extinction. Accurate stellar velocities (<1 km/s) are obtained with minimal observing time (<1 min) per source. Detecting over 20,000 SiO maser sources yields data comparable to optical surveys with the additional strength of a much more thorough coverage of the highly obscured inner Galaxy. Modeling of such a large sample would reveal dynamical structures and minority populations; the velocity structure can be compared to kinematic structures seen in molecular gas, complex orbit structure in the bar, or stellar streams resulting from recently infallen systems. Our Bulge Asymmetries and Dynamic Evolution (BAaDE) survey yields bright SiO masers suitable for follow-up Galactic orbit and parallax determination using VLBI. Here we outline our early VLA observations at 43 GHz in the northern bulge and Galactic plane (0

Discrete Molecular Dynamics Can Predict Helical Prestructured Motifs in Disordered Proteins

PubMed Central

Han, Kyou-Hoon; Dokholyan, Nikolay V.; Tompa, Péter; Kalmár, Lajos; Hegedűs, Tamás

2014-01-01

Intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) lack a stable tertiary structure, but their short binding regions termed Pre-Structured Motifs (PreSMo) can form transient secondary structure elements in solution. Although disordered proteins are crucial in many biological processes and designing strategies to modulate their function is highly important, both experimental and computational tools to describe their conformational ensembles and the initial steps of folding are sparse. Here we report that discrete molecular dynamics (DMD) simulations combined with replica exchange (RX) method efficiently samples the conformational space and detects regions populating α-helical conformational states in disordered protein regions. While the available computational methods predict secondary structural propensities in IDPs based on the observation of protein-protein interactions, our ab initio method rests on physical principles of protein folding and dynamics. We show that RX-DMD predicts α-PreSMos with high confidence confirmed by comparison to experimental NMR data. Moreover, the method also can dissect α-PreSMos in close vicinity to each other and indicate helix stability. Importantly, simulations with disordered regions forming helices in X-ray structures of complexes indicate that a preformed helix is frequently the binding element itself, while in other cases it may have a role in initiating the binding process. Our results indicate that RX-DMD provides a breakthrough in the structural and dynamical characterization of disordered proteins by generating the structural ensembles of IDPs even when experimental data are not available. PMID:24763499

Complex spatial dynamics maintain northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) genetic diversity in a temporally varying landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Chen, Yongjiu; Stockwell, Craig A.

2013-01-01

In contrast to most local amphibian populations, northeastern populations of the Northern Leopard Frog (Lithobates pipiens) have displayed uncharacteristically high levels of genetic diversity that have been attributed to large, stable populations. However, this widely distributed species also occurs in areas known for great climatic fluctuations that should be reflected in corresponding fluctuations in population sizes and reduced genetic diversity. To test our hypothesis that Northern Leopard Frog genetic diversity would be reduced in areas subjected to significant climate variability, we examined the genetic diversity of L. pipiens collected from 12 sites within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota. Despite the region's fluctuating climate that includes periods of recurring drought and deluge, we found unexpectedly high levels of genetic diversity approaching that of northeastern populations. Further, genetic structure at a landscape scale was strikingly homogeneous; genetic differentiation estimates (Dest) averaged 0.10 (SD = 0.036) across the six microsatellite loci we studied, and two Bayesian assignment tests (STRUCTURE and BAPS) failed to reveal the development of significant population structure across the 68 km breadth of our study area. These results suggest that L. pipiens in the Prairie Pothole Region consists of a large, panmictic population capable of maintaining high genetic diversity in the face of marked climate variability.

Resolving biomolecular motion and interactions by R2 and R1ρ relaxation dispersion NMR.

PubMed

Walinda, Erik; Morimoto, Daichi; Sugase, Kenji

2018-04-26

Among the tools of structural biology, NMR spectroscopy is unique in that it not only derives a static three-dimensional structure, but also provides an atomic-level description of the local fluctuations and global dynamics around this static structure. A battery of NMR experiments is now available to probe the motions of proteins and nucleic acids over the whole biologically relevant timescale from picoseconds to hours. Here we focus on one of these methods, relaxation dispersion, which resolves dynamics on the micro- to millisecond timescale. Key biological processes that occur on this timescale include enzymatic catalysis, ligand binding, and local folding. In other words, relaxation-dispersion-resolved dynamics are often closely related to the function of the molecule and therefore highly interesting to the structural biochemist. With an astounding sensitivity of ∼0.5%, the method detects low-population excited states that are invisible to any other biophysical method. The kinetics of the exchange between the ground state and excited states are quantified in the form of the underlying exchange rate, while structural information about the invisible excited state is obtained in the form of its chemical shift. Lastly, the population of the excited state can be derived. This diversity in the information that can be obtained makes relaxation dispersion an excellent method to study the detailed mechanisms of conformational transitions and molecular interactions. Here we describe the two branches of relaxation dispersion, R 2 and R 1ρ , discussing their applicability, similarities, and differences, as well as recent developments in pulse sequence design and data processing. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contrasting Transmission Dynamics of Co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination.

PubMed

Noviyanti, Rintis; Coutrier, Farah; Utami, Retno A S; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; Tirta, Yusrifar K; Trianty, Leily; Kusuma, Andreas; Sutanto, Inge; Kosasih, Ayleen; Kusriastuti, Rita; Hawley, William A; Laihad, Ferdinand; Lobo, Neil; Marfurt, Jutta; Clark, Taane G; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

2015-05-01

Outside of Africa, P. falciparum and P. vivax usually coexist. In such co-endemic regions, successful malaria control programs have a greater impact on reducing falciparum malaria, resulting in P. vivax becoming the predominant species of infection. Adding to the challenges of elimination, the dormant liver stage complicates efforts to monitor the impact of ongoing interventions against P. vivax. We investigated molecular approaches to inform the respective transmission dynamics of P. falciparum and P. vivax and how these could help to prioritize public health interventions. Genotype data generated at 8 and 9 microsatellite loci were analysed in 168 P. falciparum and 166 P. vivax isolates, respectively, from four co-endemic sites in Indonesia (Bangka, Kalimantan, Sumba and West Timor). Measures of diversity, linkage disequilibrium (LD) and population structure were used to gauge the transmission dynamics of each species in each setting. Marked differences were observed in the diversity and population structure of P. vivax versus P. falciparum. In Bangka, Kalimantan and Timor, P. falciparum diversity was low, and LD patterns were consistent with unstable, epidemic transmission, amenable to targeted intervention. In contrast, P. vivax diversity was higher and transmission appeared more stable. Population differentiation was lower in P. vivax versus P. falciparum, suggesting that the hypnozoite reservoir might play an important role in sustaining local transmission and facilitating the spread of P. vivax infections in different endemic settings. P. vivax polyclonality varied with local endemicity, demonstrating potential utility in informing on transmission intensity in this species. Molecular approaches can provide important information on malaria transmission that is not readily available from traditional epidemiological measures. Elucidation of the transmission dynamics circulating in a given setting will have a major role in prioritising malaria control strategies, particularly against the relatively neglected non-falciparum species.

Photon echo spectroscopy reveals structure-dynamics relationships in carotenoids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensson, N.; Polivka, T.; Yartsev, A.; Pullerits, T.

2009-06-01

Based on simultaneous analysis of the frequency-resolved transient grating, peak shift, and echo width signals, we present a model for the third-order optical response of carotenoids including population dynamics and system-bath interactions. Our frequency-resolved photon echo experiments show that the model needs to incorporate the excited-state absorption from both the S2 and the S1 states. We apply our model to analyze the experimental results on astaxanthin and lycopene, aiming to elucidate the relation between structure and system-bath interactions. Our analysis allows us to relate structural motifs to changes in the energy-gap correlation functions. We find that the terminal rings of astaxanthin lead to increased coupling between slow molecular motions and the electronic transition. We also find evidence for stronger coupling to higher frequency overdamped modes in astaxanthin, pointing to the importance of the functional groups in providing coupling to fluctuations influencing the dynamics in the passage through the conical intersection governing the S2-S1 relaxation.

Structural and dynamic characterization of ultrafine fibers based on the poly-3-hydroxybutyrate-dipyridamole system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olkhov, A. A.; Karpova, S. G.; Staroverova, O. V.; Krutikova, A. A.; Orlov, N. A.; Kucherenko, E. L.; Iordanskii, A. L.

2016-11-01

The fibrous materials (the mats) based on poly-3-hydroxybutyrate (PHB) containing the drug, dipiridomole (DPD) were produced by electrospinning (ES). Thermophysical and dynamical properties of the single filaments and the mats were studied by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and probe electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy (EPR). The effect of annealing temperature on the structure and crystallinity of the fibers was examined. It was shown that the loading of DPD influences on both the melting enthalpy and the morphology of the fibers. Besides the analysis of EPR spectra revealed that there are two populations of spin-probes distributed in the rigid and nonrigid amorphous regions of the PHB fibers respectively. For all fibrous materials with different content of DPD (0-5%) the correlation between thermophysical (DSC) and dynamic data (EPR) was observed.

Continuous and Discrete Structured Population Models with Applications to Epidemiology and Marine Mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tingting

In this dissertation, we develop structured population models to examine how changes in the environmental affect population processes. In Chapter 2, we develop a general continuous time size structured model describing a susceptible-infected (SI) population coupled with the environment. This model applies to problems arising in ecology, epidemiology, and cell biology. The model consists of a system of quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations coupled with a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that represent the environment. We develop a second-order high resolution finite difference scheme to numerically solve the model. Convergence of this scheme to a weak solution with bounded total variation is proved. We numerically compare the second order high resolution scheme with a first order finite difference scheme. Higher order of convergence and high resolution property are observed in the second order finite difference scheme. In addition, we apply our model to a multi-host wildlife disease problem, questions regarding the impact of the initial population structure and transition rate within each host are numerically explored. In Chapter 3, we use a stage structured matrix model for wildlife population to study the recovery process of the population given an environmental disturbance. We focus on the time it takes for the population to recover to its pre-event level and develop general formulas to calculate the sensitivity or elasticity of the recovery time to changes in the initial population distribution, vital rates and event severity. Our results suggest that the recovery time is independent of the initial population size, but is sensitive to the initial population structure. Moreover, it is more sensitive to the reduction proportion to the vital rates of the population caused by the catastrophe event relative to the duration of impact of the event. We present the potential application of our model to the amphibian population dynamic and the recovery of a certain plant population. In addition, we explore, in details, the application of the model to the sperm whale population in Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. In Chapter 4, we summarize the results from Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 and explore some further avenues of our research.

Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azevedo, F.; Coutinho, R. M.; Kraenkel, R. A.

2015-05-01

We explore the spatial dynamics of a population whose individuals go through life stages with very different dispersal capacities. We model it through a system of partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion kind, with nonlinear diffusion terms that may depend on population density and on the stage. This model includes a few key biological ingredients: growth and saturation, life stage structure, small population effects, and diffusion dependent on the stage. In particular, we consider that adults exhibit two distinct classes: one highly mobile and the other less mobile but with higher fecundity rate, and the development of juveniles into one or the other depends on population density. We parametrize the model with estimated parameters of an insect species, the brown planthopper. We focus on a situation akin to an invasion of the species in a new habitat and find that the front of invasion is led by the most mobile adult class. We also show that the trade-off between dispersal and fecundity leads to invasion speed attaining its maximum at an intermediate value of the diffusion coefficient of the most mobile class.

A high-resolution genetic signature of demographic and spatial expansion in epizootic rabies virus

PubMed Central

Biek, Roman; Henderson, J. Caroline; Waller, Lance A.; Rupprecht, Charles E.; Real, Leslie A.

2007-01-01

Emerging pathogens potentially undergo rapid evolution while expanding in population size and geographic range during the course of invasion, yet it is generally difficult to demonstrate how these processes interact. Our analysis of a 30-yr data set covering a large-scale rabies virus outbreak among North American raccoons reveals the long lasting effect of the initial infection wave in determining how viral populations are genetically structured in space. We further find that coalescent-based estimates derived from the genetic data yielded an amazingly accurate reconstruction of the known spatial and demographic dynamics of the virus over time. Our study demonstrates the combined evolutionary and population dynamic processes characterizing the spread of pathogen after its introduction into a fully susceptible host population. Furthermore, the results provide important insights regarding the spatial scale of rabies persistence and validate the use of coalescent approaches for uncovering even relatively complex population histories. Such approaches will be of increasing relevance for understanding the epidemiology of emerging zoonotic diseases in a landscape context. PMID:17470818

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

PubMed

Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

2013-02-18

The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

Metapopulation Dynamics of the Mistletoe and Its Host in Savanna Areas with Different Fire Occurrence

PubMed Central

Teodoro, Grazielle Sales; van den Berg, Eduardo; Arruda, Rafael

2013-01-01

Mistletoes are aerial hemiparasitic plants which occupy patches of favorable habitat (host trees) surrounded by unfavorable habitat and may be possibly modeled as a metapopulation. A metapopulation is defined as a subdivided population that persists due to the balance between colonization and extinction in discrete habitat patches. Our aim was to evaluate the dynamics of the mistletoe Psittacanthus robustus and its host Vochysia thyrsoidea in three Brazilian savanna areas using a metapopulation approach. We also evaluated how the differences in terms of fire occurrence affected the dynamic of those populations (two areas burned during the study and one was fire protected). We monitored the populations at six-month intervals. P. robustus population structure and dynamics met the expected criteria for a metapopulation: i) the suitable habitats for the mistletoe occur in discrete patches; (ii) local populations went extinct during the study and (iii) colonization of previously non-occupied patches occurred. The ratio of occupied patches decreased in all areas with time. Local mistletoe populations went extinct due to two different causes: patch extinction in area with no fire and fire killing in the burned areas. In a burned area, the largest decrease of occupied patch ratios occurred due to a fire event that killed the parasites without, however, killing the host trees. The greatest mortality of V. thyrsoidea occurred in the area without fire. In this area, all the dead trees supported mistletoe individuals and no mortality was observed for parasite-free trees. Because P. robustus is a fire sensitive species and V. thyrsoidea is fire tolerant, P. robustus seems to increase host mortality, but its effect is lessened by periodic burning that reduces the parasite loads. PMID:23776554

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. Methods A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Results Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. Conclusions A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions. PMID:23419192

Forest turnover rates follow global and regional patterns of productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephenson, N.L.; van Mantgem, P.J.

2005-01-01

Using a global database, we found that forest turnover rates (the average of tree mortality and recruitment rates) parallel broad-scale patterns of net primary productivity. First, forest turnover was higher in tropical than in temperate forests. Second, as recently demonstrated by others, Amazonian forest turnover was higher on fertile than infertile soils. Third, within temperate latitudes, turnover was highest in angiosperm forests, intermediate in mixed forests, and lowest in gymnosperm forests. Finally, within a single forest physiognomic type, turnover declined sharply with elevation (hence with temperature). These patterns of turnover in populations of trees are broadly similar to the patterns of turnover in populations of plant organs (leaves and roots) found in other studies. Our findings suggest a link between forest mass balance and the population dynamics of trees, and have implications for understanding and predicting the effects of environmental changes on forest structure and terrestrial carbon dynamics. ??2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Ubiquitin in Motion: Structural Studies of the Ubiquitin-Conjugating Enzyme~Ubiquitin Conjugate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pruneda, Jonathan N.; Stoll, Kate E.; Bolton, Laura J.

2011-03-15

Ubiquitination of proteins provides a powerful and versatile post-translational signal in the eukaryotic cell. The formation of a thioester bond between ubiquitin (Ub) and the active site of a ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (E2) is critical for the transfer of Ub to substrates. Assembly of a functional ubiquitin ligase (E3) complex poised for Ub transfer involves recognition and binding of an E2~Ub conjugate. Therefore, full characterization of the structure and dynamics of E2~Ub conjugates is required for further mechanistic understanding of Ub transfer reactions. Here we present characterization of the dynamic behavior of E2~Ub conjugates of two human enzymes, UbcH5c~Ub and Ubc13~Ub,more » in solution as determined by nuclear magnetic resonance and small-angle X-ray scattering. Within each conjugate, Ub retains great flexibility with respect to the E2, indicative of highly dynamic species that adopt manifold orientations. The population distribution of Ub conformations is dictated by the identity of the E2: the UbcH5c~Ub conjugate populates an array of extended conformations, and the population of Ubc13~Ub conjugates favors a closed conformation in which the hydrophobic surface of Ub faces helix 2 of Ubc13. Finally, we propose that the varied conformations adopted by Ub represent available binding modes of the E2~Ub species and thus provide insight into the diverse E2~Ub protein interactome, particularly with regard to interaction with Ub ligases.« less

Predation risk suppresses the positive feedback between size structure and cannibalism.

PubMed

Kishida, Osamu; Trussell, Geoffrey C; Ohno, Ayaka; Kuwano, Shinya; Ikawa, Takuya; Nishimura, Kinya

2011-11-01

1. Cannibalism can play a prominent role in the structuring and dynamics of ecological communities. Previous studies have emphasized the importance of size structure and density of cannibalistic species in shaping short- and long-term cannibalism dynamics, but our understanding of how predators influence cannibalism dynamics is limited. This is despite widespread evidence that many prey species exhibit behavioural and morphological adaptations in response to predation risk. 2. This study examined how the presence and absence of predation risk from larval dragonflies Aeshna nigroflava affected cannibalism dynamics in its prey larval salamanders Hynobius retardatus. 3. We found that feedback dynamics between size structure and cannibalism depended on whether dragonfly predation risk was present. In the absence of dragonfly risk cues, a positive feedback between salamander size structure and cannibalism through time occurred because most of the replicates in this treatment contained at least one salamander larvae having an enlarged gape (i.e. cannibal). In contrast, this feedback and the emergence of cannibalism were rarely observed in the presence of the dragonfly risk cues. Once salamander size divergence occurred, experimental reversals of the presence or absence of dragonfly risk cues did not alter existing cannibalism dynamics as the experiment progressed. Thus, the effects of risk on the mechanisms driving cannibalism dynamics likely operated during the early developmental period of the salamander larvae. 4. The effects of dragonfly predation risk on behavioural aspects of cannibalistic interactions among hatchlings may prohibit the initiation of dynamics between size structure and cannibalism. Our predation trials clearly showed that encounter rates among hatchlings and biting and ingestion rates of prospective prey by prospective cannibals were significantly lower in the presence vs. absence of dragonfly predation risk even though the size asymmetry between cannibals and victims was similar in both risk treatments. These results suggest that dragonfly risk cues first suppress cannibalism among hatchlings and then prevent size variation from increasing through time. 5. We suggest that the positive feedback dynamics between size structure and cannibalism and their modification by predation risk may also operate in other systems to shape the population dynamics of cannibalistic prey species as well as overall community dynamics. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Disentangling polydispersity in the PCNA−p15PAF complex, a disordered, transient and multivalent macromolecular assembly

PubMed Central

Cordeiro, Tiago N.; Chen, Po-chia; De Biasio, Alfredo; Sibille, Nathalie; Blanco, Francisco J.; Hub, Jochen S.; Crehuet, Ramon

2017-01-01

Abstract The intrinsically disordered p15PAF regulates DNA replication and repair when interacting with the Proliferating Cell Nuclear Antigen (PCNA) sliding clamp. As many interactions between disordered proteins and globular partners involved in signaling and regulation, the complex between p15PAF and trimeric PCNA is of low affinity, forming a transient complex that is difficult to characterize at a structural level due to its inherent polydispersity. We have determined the structure, conformational fluctuations, and relative population of the five species that coexist in solution by combining small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) with molecular modelling. By using explicit ensemble descriptions for the individual species, built using integrative approaches and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we collectively interpreted multiple SAXS profiles as population-weighted thermodynamic mixtures. The analysis demonstrates that the N-terminus of p15PAF penetrates the PCNA ring and emerges on the back face. This observation substantiates the role of p15PAF as a drag regulating PCNA processivity during DNA repair. Our study reveals the power of ensemble-based approaches to decode structural, dynamic, and thermodynamic information from SAXS data. This strategy paves the way for deciphering the structural bases of flexible, transient and multivalent macromolecular assemblies involved in pivotal biological processes. PMID:28180305

The dynamic relationship between structural change and CO2 emissions in Malaysia: a cointegrating approach.

PubMed

Ali, Wajahat; Abdullah, Azrai; Azam, Muhammad

2017-05-01

The current study investigates the dynamic relationship between structural changes, real GDP per capita, energy consumption, trade openness, population density, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions within the EKC framework over a period 1971-2013. The study used the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) approach to investigate the long-run relationship between the selected variables. The study also employed the dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) technique to obtain the robust long-run estimates. Moreover, the causal relationship between the variables is explored using the VECM Granger causality test. Empirical results reveal a negative relationship between structural change and CO 2 emissions in the long run. The results indicate a positive relationship between energy consumption, trade openness, and CO 2 emissions. The study applied the turning point formula of Itkonen (2012) rather than the conventional formula of the turning point. The empirical estimates of the study do not support the presence of the EKC relationship between income and CO 2 emissions. The Granger causality test indicates the presence of long-run bidirectional causality between energy consumption, structural change, and CO 2 emissions in the long run. Economic growth, openness to trade, and population density unidirectionally cause CO 2 emissions. These results suggest that the government should focus more on information-based services rather than energy-intensive manufacturing activities. The feedback relationship between energy consumption and CO 2 emissions suggests that there is an ominous need to refurbish the energy-related policy reforms to ensure the installations of some energy-efficient modern technologies.

Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.

2015-01-01

Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total abundance produced estimates that largely conformed to our a priori expectation. Although care must be taken to tailor models to match the study population and survey data available, we argue that hierarchical spatiotemporal statistical models represent a powerful way forward for estimating abundance and explaining variation in the distribution of dynamical populations.

Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. Multiple-species extensions to general ‘food networks’ can be classified on the mean-field level, providing both fundamental understanding of ensuing cooperativity and profound insight into the rich spatio-temporal features and coarsening kinetics in the corresponding spatially extended systems. Novel space-time patterns emerge as a result of the formation of competing alliances; e.g. coarsening domains that each incorporate rock-paper-scissors competition games.

Modeling the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the copepod Centropages typicus in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during the year 2001 using a 3D ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlotti, F.; Eisenhauer, L.; Campbell, R.; Diaz, F.

2014-07-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of a simulated Centropages typicus (Kröyer) population during the year 2001 at the regional scale of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are addressed using a 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The setup of the coupled biological model comprises a pelagic plankton ecosystem model and a stage-structured population model forced by the 3D velocity and temperature fields provided by an eddy-resolving regional circulation model. The population model for C. typicus (C. t. below) represents demographic processes through five groups of developmental stages, which depend on underlying individual growth and development processes and are forced by both biotic (prey and predator fields) and abiotic (temperature, advection) factors from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The objective is to characterize C. t. ontogenic habitats driven by physical and trophic processes. The annual dynamics are presented for two of the main oceanographic stations in the Gulf of Lions, which are representative of shelf and open sea conditions, while the spatial distributions over the whole area are presented for three dates during the year, in early and late spring and in winter. The simulated spatial patterns of C. t. developmental stages are closely related to mesoscale hydrodynamic features and circulation patterns. The seasonal and spatial distributions on the Gulf of Lions shelf depend on the seasonal interplay between the Rhône river plume, the mesoscale eddies on the shelf and the Northern Current acting as either as a dynamic barrier between the shelf and the open sea or allowing cross-shelf exchanges. In the central gyre of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the patchiness of plankton is tightly linked to mesoscale frontal systems, surface eddies and filaments and deep gradients. Due to its flexibility in terms of its diet, C. t. succeeds in maintaining its population in both coastal and offshore areas year round. The simulations suggest that the winte-spring food conditions are more favorable on the shelf for C. t., whereas in late summer and fall, the offshore depth-integrated food biomasses represent a larger resource for C. t., particularly when mesoscale structures and vertical discontinuities increase food patchiness. The development and reproduction of C. t. depend on the prey field within the mesoscale structures that induce a contrasting spatial distribution of successive developmental stages on a given observation date. In late fall and winter, the results of the model suggest the existence of three refuge areas where the population maintains winter generations near the coast and within the Rhone River plume, or offshore within canyons within the shelf break, or in the frontal system related to the Northern Current. The simulated spatial and temporal distributions as well as the life cycle and physiological features of C. t. are discussed in light of recent reviews on the dynamics of C. t. in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

Landscape genetics of the nonnative red fox of California.

PubMed

Sacks, Benjamin N; Brazeal, Jennifer L; Lewis, Jeffrey C

2016-07-01

Invasive mammalian carnivores contribute disproportionately to declines in global biodiversity. In California, nonnative red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) have significantly impacted endangered ground-nesting birds and native canids. These foxes derive primarily from captive-reared animals associated with the fur-farming industry. Over the past five decades, the cumulative area occupied by nonnative red fox increased to cover much of central and southern California. We used a landscape-genetic approach involving mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and 13 microsatellites of 402 nonnative red foxes removed in predator control programs to investigate source populations, contemporary connectivity, and metapopulation dynamics. Both markers indicated high population structuring consistent with origins from multiple introductions and low subsequent gene flow. Landscape-genetic modeling indicated that population connectivity was especially low among coastal sampling sites surrounded by mountainous wildlands but somewhat higher through topographically flat, urban and agricultural landscapes. The genetic composition of populations tended to be stable for multiple generations, indicating a degree of demographic resilience to predator removal programs. However, in two sites where intensive predator control reduced fox abundance, we observed increases in immigration, suggesting potential for recolonization to counter eradication attempts. These findings, along with continued genetic monitoring, can help guide localized management of foxes by identifying points of introductions and routes of spread and evaluating the relative importance of reproduction and immigration in maintaining populations. More generally, the study illustrates the utility of a landscape-genetic approach for understanding invasion dynamics and metapopulation structure of one of the world's most destructive invasive mammals, the red fox.

Cultural turnover among Galápagos sperm whales

PubMed Central

Whitehead, Hal; Rendell, Luke

2016-01-01

While populations may wax and wane, it is rare for an entire population to be replaced by a completely different set of individuals. We document the large-scale relocation of cultural groups of sperm whale off the Galápagos Islands, in which two sympatric vocal clans were entirely replaced by two different ones. Between 1985 and 1999, whales from two clans (called Regular and Plus-One) defined by cultural dialects in coda vocalizations were repeatedly photo-identified off Galápagos. Their occurrence in the area declined through the 1990s; by 2000, none remained. We reassessed Galápagos sperm whales in 2013–2014, identifying 463 new females. However, re-sighting rates were low, with no matches with the Galápagos 1985–1999 population, suggesting an eastward shift to coastal areas. Their vocal repertoires matched those of two other clans (called Short and Four-Plus) found across the Pacific but previously rare or absent around Galápagos. The mechanisms behind this cultural turnover may include large-scale environmental regime shifts favouring clan-specific foraging strategies, and a response to heavy whaling in the region involving redistribution of surviving whales into high-quality habitats. The fall and rise of sperm whale cultures off Galápagos reflect the structuring of the Pacific population into large, enduring clans with dynamic ranges. Long-lasting clan membership illustrates how culture can be bound up in the structure and dynamics of animal populations and so how tracking cultural traits can reveal large-scale population shifts. PMID:27853582

Population structure of resident, immigrant, and swimming Corophium volutator (Amphipoda) on an intertidal mudflat in the Bay of Fundy, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drolet, David; Barbeau, Myriam A.

2012-05-01

Spatial variation in biotic and abiotic conditions, and differences in dispersive behavior of different life history stages can result in the formation of zones with different demography for infaunal and epifaunal species within vast intertidal flats. In this study, we evaluated within-mudflat homogeneity of the infaunal amphipod Corophium volutator found in the mud (residents), colonizing artificially disturbed areas (immigrants), and caught in the water column (swimmers) on a large mudflat in the upper Bay of Fundy, Canada. Densities of residents, immigrants, and swimmers were well structured in space (both along and across shore). Occasionally, significant differences in size structure, sex ratio, and proportion of ovigerous females were found at different intertidal levels, but these were short-lived. Comparisons of size and sex structure of residents, immigrants, and swimmers revealed occasional marked differences, with small juveniles and large adult males moving most. However, this size-bias in movement did not translate into zones with different population dynamics, suggesting that ample dispersal, through swimming and drifting in the water column, homogenized the population and masked potential effects of variation in environmental conditions. We therefore conclude that the mudflat represents one homogeneous population.

South American Plasmodium falciparum after the Malaria Eradication Era: Clonal Population Expansion and Survival of the Fittest Hybrids

PubMed Central

Griffing, Sean M.; Mixson-Hayden, Tonya; Sridaran, Sankar; Alam, Md Tauqeer; McCollum, Andrea M.; Cabezas, César; Marquiño Quezada, Wilmer; Barnwell, John W.; Macedo De Oliveira, Alexandre; Lucas, Carmen; Arrospide, Nancy; Escalante, Ananias A.; Bacon, David J.; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam

2011-01-01

Malaria has reemerged in many regions where once it was nearly eliminated. Yet the source of these parasites, the process of repopulation, their population structure, and dynamics are ill defined. Peru was one of malaria eradication's successes, where Plasmodium falciparum was nearly eliminated for two decades. It reemerged in the 1990s. In the new era of malaria elimination, Peruvian P. falciparum is a model of malaria reinvasion. We investigated its population structure and drug resistance profiles. We hypothesized that only populations adapted to local ecological niches could expand and repopulate and originated as vestigial populations or recent introductions. We investigated the genetic structure (using microsatellites) and drug resistant genotypes of 220 parasites collected from patients immediately after peak epidemic expansion (1999–2000) from seven sites across the country. The majority of parasites could be grouped into five clonal lineages by networks and AMOVA. The distribution of clonal lineages and their drug sensitivity profiles suggested geographic structure. In 2001, artesunate combination therapy was introduced in Peru. We tested 62 parasites collected in 2006–2007 for changes in genetic structure. Clonal lineages had recombined under selection for the fittest parasites. Our findings illustrate that local adaptations in the post-eradication era have contributed to clonal lineage expansion. Within the shifting confluence of drug policy and malaria incidence, populations continue to evolve through genetic outcrossing influenced by antimalarial selection pressure. Understanding the population substructure of P. falciparum has implications for vaccine, drug, and epidemiologic studies, including monitoring malaria during and after the elimination phase. PMID:21949680

Safely Enabling UAS Operations in Low-Altitude Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopardekar, Parimal H.

2016-01-01

Flexibility where possible, and structure where necessary. Consider the needs of national security, safe airspace operations, economic opportunities, and emerging technologies. Risk-based approach based on population density, assets on the ground, density of operations, etc. Digital, virtual, dynamic, and as needed UTM services to manage operations.

Farm-scale variation of soil quality indices and association with edaphic properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil organisms are indicators of dynamic soil quality because their community structure and population density are sensitive to management changes. However, edaphic properties can also affect soil organisms and high spatial variability can confound their utility for soil evaluation. In the present...

Recruitment dynamics of two ecosystem engineers could drive shellfish populations in U.S. west coast estuaries

EPA Science Inventory

Two species of burrowing shrimp, Neotrypaea californiensis and Upogebia pugettensis are important members of intertidal mudflat communities in US West coast estuaries. Both species act as ecosystem engineers and influence the presence of other structured habitats and suspension ...

The invasive mosquito species Aedes albopictus: current knowledge and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Bonizzoni, Mariangela; Gasperi, Giuliano; Chen, Xioaguang; James, Anthony A.

2013-01-01

One of the most dynamic events in public health is being mediated by the global spread of the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus. Its rapid expansion and vectorial capacity for various arboviruses affect an increasingly larger proportion of the world population. Responses to the challenges of controlling this vector are expected to be enhanced by an increased knowledge of its biology, ecology, and vector competence. Details of population genetics and structure will allow following, and possibly predicting, the geographical and temporal dynamics of its expansion, and will inform the practical operations of control programs. Experts are coming together now to describe the history, characterize the present circumstances, and collaborate on future efforts to understand and mitigate this emerging public health threat. PMID:23916878

Risky business: The impact of climate and climate variability on human population dynamics in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Ariane; Kageyama, Masa; Latombe, Guilllaume; Fasel, Marc; Vrac, Mathieu; Ramstein, Gilles; James, Patrick M. A.

2017-05-01

The extent to which climate change has affected the course of human evolution is an enduring question. The ability to maintain spatially extensive social networks and a fluid social structure allows human foragers to ;map onto; the landscape, mitigating the impact of ecological risk and conferring resilience. But what are the limits of resilience and to which environmental variables are foraging populations sensitive? We address this question by testing the impact of a suite of environmental variables, including climate variability, on the distribution of human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Climate variability affects the distribution of plant and animal resources unpredictably, creating an element of risk for foragers for whom mobility comes at a cost. We produce a model of habitat suitability that allows us to generate predictions about the probable distribution of human populations and discuss the implications of these predictions for the structure of human populations and their social and cultural evolution during the LGM.

[Spatial structure analysis and distribution simulation of Therioaphis trifolii population based on geostatistics and GIS].

PubMed

Zhang, Rong; Leng, Yun-fa; Zhu, Meng-meng; Wang, Fang

2007-11-01

Based on geographic information system and geostatistics, the spatial structure of Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods in Yuanzhou district of Guyuan City, the southern Ningxia Province, was analyzed. The spatial distribution of Therioaphis trifolii population was also simulated by ordinary Kriging interpretation. The results showed that Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods was correlated spatially in the study area. The semivariograms of Therioaphis trifolii could be described by exponential model, indicating an aggregated spatial arrangement. The spatial variance varied from 34.13%-48.77%, and the range varied from 8.751-12.049 km. The degree and direction of aggregation showed that the trend was increased gradually from southwest to northeast. The dynamic change of Therioaphis trifolii population in different periods could be analyzed intuitively on the simulated maps of the spatial distribution from the two aspects of time and space, The occurrence position and degree of Therioaphis trifolii to a state of certain time could be determined easily.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

PubMed

Miller, Tom E X

2007-07-01

1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

Detecting black bear source–sink dynamics using individual-based genetic graphs

PubMed Central

Draheim, Hope M.; Moore, Jennifer A.; Etter, Dwayne; Winterstein, Scott R.; Scribner, Kim T.

2016-01-01

Source–sink dynamics affects population connectivity, spatial genetic structure and population viability for many species. We introduce a novel approach that uses individual-based genetic graphs to identify source–sink areas within a continuously distributed population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the northern lower peninsula (NLP) of Michigan, USA. Black bear harvest samples (n = 569, from 2002, 2006 and 2010) were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci and locations were compared across years to identify areas of consistent occupancy over time. We compared graph metrics estimated for a genetic model with metrics from 10 ecological models to identify ecological factors that were associated with sources and sinks. We identified 62 source nodes, 16 of which represent important source areas (net flux > 0.7) and 79 sink nodes. Source strength was significantly correlated with bear local harvest density (a proxy for bear density) and habitat suitability. Additionally, resampling simulations showed our approach is robust to potential sampling bias from uneven sample dispersion. Findings demonstrate black bears in the NLP exhibit asymmetric gene flow, and individual-based genetic graphs can characterize source–sink dynamics in continuously distributed species in the absence of discrete habitat patches. Our findings warrant consideration of undetected source–sink dynamics and their implications on harvest management of game species. PMID:27440668

Dynamics of water bound to crystalline cellulose

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O’Neill, Hugh; Pingali, Sai Venkatesh; Petridis, Loukas

Interactions of water with cellulose are of both fundamental and technological importance. Here, we characterize the properties of water associated with cellulose using deuterium labeling, neutron scattering and molecular dynamics simulation. Quasi-elastic neutron scattering provided quantitative details about the dynamical relaxation processes that occur and was supported by structural characterization using small-angle neutron scattering and X-ray diffraction. We can unambiguously detect two populations of water associated with cellulose. The first is “non-freezing bound” water that gradually becomes mobile with increasing temperature and can be related to surface water. The second population is consistent with confined water that abruptly becomes mobilemore » at ~260 K, and can be attributed to water that accumulates in the narrow spaces between the microfibrils. Quantitative analysis of the QENS data showed that, at 250 K, the water diffusion coefficient was 0.85 ± 0.04 × 10-10 m2sec-1 and increased to 1.77 ± 0.09 × 10-10 m2sec-1 at 265 K. MD simulations are in excellent agreement with the experiments and support the interpretation that water associated with cellulose exists in two dynamical populations. Our results provide clarity to previous work investigating the states of bound water and provide a new approach for probing water interactions with lignocellulose materials.« less

Detecting black bear source-sink dynamics using individual-based genetic graphs.

PubMed

Draheim, Hope M; Moore, Jennifer A; Etter, Dwayne; Winterstein, Scott R; Scribner, Kim T

2016-07-27

Source-sink dynamics affects population connectivity, spatial genetic structure and population viability for many species. We introduce a novel approach that uses individual-based genetic graphs to identify source-sink areas within a continuously distributed population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the northern lower peninsula (NLP) of Michigan, USA. Black bear harvest samples (n = 569, from 2002, 2006 and 2010) were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci and locations were compared across years to identify areas of consistent occupancy over time. We compared graph metrics estimated for a genetic model with metrics from 10 ecological models to identify ecological factors that were associated with sources and sinks. We identified 62 source nodes, 16 of which represent important source areas (net flux > 0.7) and 79 sink nodes. Source strength was significantly correlated with bear local harvest density (a proxy for bear density) and habitat suitability. Additionally, resampling simulations showed our approach is robust to potential sampling bias from uneven sample dispersion. Findings demonstrate black bears in the NLP exhibit asymmetric gene flow, and individual-based genetic graphs can characterize source-sink dynamics in continuously distributed species in the absence of discrete habitat patches. Our findings warrant consideration of undetected source-sink dynamics and their implications on harvest management of game species. © 2016 The Author(s).

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought.

PubMed

Jones, Marjorie T; Milligan, William R; Kats, Lee B; Vandergon, Thomas L; Honeycutt, Rodney L; Fisher, Robert N; Davis, Courtney L; Lucas, Timothy A

2017-02-07

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Marjorie T.; Milligan, William R.; Kats, Lee B.; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Davis, Courtney L.; Lucas, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

Impact of Commercial Strain Use on Saccharomyces cerevisiae Population Structure and Dynamics in Pinot Noir Vineyards and Spontaneous Fermentations of a Canadian Winery

PubMed Central

Martiniuk, Jonathan T.; Pacheco, Braydon; Russell, Gordon; Tong, Stephanie; Backstrom, Ian; Measday, Vivien

2016-01-01

Wine is produced by one of two methods: inoculated fermentation, where a commercially-produced, single Saccharomyces cerevisiae (S. cerevisiae) yeast strain is used; or the traditional spontaneous fermentation, where yeast present on grape and winery surfaces carry out the fermentative process. Spontaneous fermentations are characterized by a diverse succession of yeast, ending with one or multiple strains of S. cerevisiae dominating the fermentation. In wineries using both fermentation methods, commercial strains may dominate spontaneous fermentations. We elucidate the impact of the winery environment and commercial strain use on S. cerevisiae population structure in spontaneous fermentations over two vintages by comparing S. cerevisiae populations in aseptically fermented grapes from a Canadian Pinot Noir vineyard to S. cerevisiae populations in winery-conducted fermentations of grapes from the same vineyard. We also characterize the vineyard-associated S. cerevisiae populations in two other geographically separate Pinot Noir vineyards farmed by the same winery. Winery fermentations were not dominated by commercial strains, but by a diverse number of strains with genotypes similar to commercial strains, suggesting that a population of S. cerevisiae derived from commercial strains is resident in the winery. Commercial and commercial-related yeast were also identified in the three vineyards examined, although at a lower frequency. There is low genetic differentiation and S. cerevisiae population structure between vineyards and between the vineyard and winery that persisted over both vintages, indicating commercial yeast are a driver of S. cerevisiae population structure. We also have evidence of distinct and persistent populations of winery and vineyard-associated S. cerevisiae populations unrelated to commercial strains. This study is the first to characterize S. cerevisiae populations in Canadian vineyards. PMID:27551920

Impact of Commercial Strain Use on Saccharomyces cerevisiae Population Structure and Dynamics in Pinot Noir Vineyards and Spontaneous Fermentations of a Canadian Winery.

PubMed

Martiniuk, Jonathan T; Pacheco, Braydon; Russell, Gordon; Tong, Stephanie; Backstrom, Ian; Measday, Vivien

2016-01-01

Wine is produced by one of two methods: inoculated fermentation, where a commercially-produced, single Saccharomyces cerevisiae (S. cerevisiae) yeast strain is used; or the traditional spontaneous fermentation, where yeast present on grape and winery surfaces carry out the fermentative process. Spontaneous fermentations are characterized by a diverse succession of yeast, ending with one or multiple strains of S. cerevisiae dominating the fermentation. In wineries using both fermentation methods, commercial strains may dominate spontaneous fermentations. We elucidate the impact of the winery environment and commercial strain use on S. cerevisiae population structure in spontaneous fermentations over two vintages by comparing S. cerevisiae populations in aseptically fermented grapes from a Canadian Pinot Noir vineyard to S. cerevisiae populations in winery-conducted fermentations of grapes from the same vineyard. We also characterize the vineyard-associated S. cerevisiae populations in two other geographically separate Pinot Noir vineyards farmed by the same winery. Winery fermentations were not dominated by commercial strains, but by a diverse number of strains with genotypes similar to commercial strains, suggesting that a population of S. cerevisiae derived from commercial strains is resident in the winery. Commercial and commercial-related yeast were also identified in the three vineyards examined, although at a lower frequency. There is low genetic differentiation and S. cerevisiae population structure between vineyards and between the vineyard and winery that persisted over both vintages, indicating commercial yeast are a driver of S. cerevisiae population structure. We also have evidence of distinct and persistent populations of winery and vineyard-associated S. cerevisiae populations unrelated to commercial strains. This study is the first to characterize S. cerevisiae populations in Canadian vineyards.

Responses of bat social groups to roost loss: More questions than answers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Silvis, Alexander; Abaid, Nicole; Ford, W. Mark; Britzke, Eric R.; Ortega, Jorge

2016-01-01

Though characterization of, and understanding determinants of, social structure in bats is increasing, little is known about how bat social groups respond to disturbance resulting in roost loss. Given that many species of bats roost in ephemeral or transitory resources such as plants, it is clear that bat social groups can tolerate some level of roost loss. Understanding responses of bat social groups to roost loss can provide insight into social structure that have applied conservation use. Herein, we review the existing literature on the effects of disturbance on bat social groups, and present a parameterizable agent-based model that can be used to explore the relationships among roost dynamics, population dynamics, and social behavior.

Cooperation in group-structured populations with two layers of interactions

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yanling; Fu, Feng; Chen, Xiaojie; Xie, Guangming; Wang, Long

2015-01-01

Recently there has been a growing interest in studying multiplex networks where individuals are structured in multiple network layers. Previous agent-based simulations of games on multiplex networks reveal rich dynamics arising from interdependency of interactions along each network layer, yet there is little known about analytical conditions for cooperation to evolve thereof. Here we aim to tackle this issue by calculating the evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in group-structured populations with two layers of interactions. In our model, an individual is engaged in two layers of group interactions simultaneously and uses unrelated strategies across layers. Evolutionary competition of individuals is determined by the total payoffs accrued from two layers of interactions. We also consider migration which allows individuals to move to a new group within each layer. An approach combining the coalescence theory with the theory of random walks is established to overcome the analytical difficulty upon local migration. We obtain the exact results for all “isotropic” migration patterns, particularly for migration tuned with varying ranges. When the two layers use one game, the optimal migration ranges are proved identical across layers and become smaller as the migration probability grows. PMID:26632251

Phase synchronization motion and neural coding in dynamic transmission of neural information.

PubMed

Wang, Rubin; Zhang, Zhikang; Qu, Jingyi; Cao, Jianting

2011-07-01

In order to explore the dynamic characteristics of neural coding in the transmission of neural information in the brain, a model of neural network consisting of three neuronal populations is proposed in this paper using the theory of stochastic phase dynamics. Based on the model established, the neural phase synchronization motion and neural coding under spontaneous activity and stimulation are examined, for the case of varying network structure. Our analysis shows that, under the condition of spontaneous activity, the characteristics of phase neural coding are unrelated to the number of neurons participated in neural firing within the neuronal populations. The result of numerical simulation supports the existence of sparse coding within the brain, and verifies the crucial importance of the magnitudes of the coupling coefficients in neural information processing as well as the completely different information processing capability of neural information transmission in both serial and parallel couplings. The result also testifies that under external stimulation, the bigger the number of neurons in a neuronal population, the more the stimulation influences the phase synchronization motion and neural coding evolution in other neuronal populations. We verify numerically the experimental result in neurobiology that the reduction of the coupling coefficient between neuronal populations implies the enhancement of lateral inhibition function in neural networks, with the enhancement equivalent to depressing neuronal excitability threshold. Thus, the neuronal populations tend to have a stronger reaction under the same stimulation, and more neurons get excited, leading to more neurons participating in neural coding and phase synchronization motion.

Alleles versus genotypes: Genetic interactions and the dynamics of selection in sexual populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neher, Richard

2010-03-01

Physical interactions between amino-acids are essential for protein structure and activity, while protein-protein interactions and regulatory interactions are central to cellular function. As a consequence of these interactions, the combined effect of two mutations can differ from the sum of the individual effects of the mutations. This phenomenon of genetic interaction is known as epistasis. However, the importance of epistasis and its effects on evolutionary dynamics are poorly understood, especially in sexual populations where recombination breaks up existing combinations of alleles to produce new ones. Here, we present a computational model of selection dynamics involving many epistatic loci in a recombining population. We demonstrate that a large number of polymorphic interacting loci can, despite frequent recombination, exhibit cooperative behavior that locks alleles into favorable genotypes leading to a population consisting of a set of competing clones. As the recombination rate exceeds a certain critical value this ``genotype selection'' phase disappears in an abrupt transition giving way to ``allele selection'' - the phase where different loci are only weakly correlated as expected in sexually reproducing populations. Clustering of interacting sets of genes on a chromosome leads to the emergence of an intermediate regime, where localized blocks of cooperating alleles lock into genetic modules. Large populations attain highest fitness at a recombination rate just below critical, suggesting that natural selection might tune recombination rates to balance the beneficial aspect of exploration of genotype space with the breaking up of synergistic allele combinations.

Metastability and Inter-Band Frequency Modulation in Networks of Oscillating Spiking Neuron Populations

PubMed Central

Bhowmik, David; Shanahan, Murray

2013-01-01

Groups of neurons firing synchronously are hypothesized to underlie many cognitive functions such as attention, associative learning, memory, and sensory selection. Recent theories suggest that transient periods of synchronization and desynchronization provide a mechanism for dynamically integrating and forming coalitions of functionally related neural areas, and that at these times conditions are optimal for information transfer. Oscillating neural populations display a great amount of spectral complexity, with several rhythms temporally coexisting in different structures and interacting with each other. This paper explores inter-band frequency modulation between neural oscillators using models of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons and Hodgkin-Huxley neurons. We vary the structural connectivity in a network of neural oscillators, assess the spectral complexity, and correlate the inter-band frequency modulation. We contrast this correlation against measures of metastable coalition entropy and synchrony. Our results show that oscillations in different neural populations modulate each other so as to change frequency, and that the interaction of these fluctuating frequencies in the network as a whole is able to drive different neural populations towards episodes of synchrony. Further to this, we locate an area in the connectivity space in which the system directs itself in this way so as to explore a large repertoire of synchronous coalitions. We suggest that such dynamics facilitate versatile exploration, integration, and communication between functionally related neural areas, and thereby supports sophisticated cognitive processing in the brain. PMID:23614040

On the concept of individual in ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Metz, J A J

2013-03-01

Part of the art of theory building is to construct effective basic concepts, with a large reach and yet powerful as tools for getting at conclusions. The most basic concept of population biology is that of individual. An appropriately reengineered form of this concept has become the basis for the theories of structured populations and adaptive dynamics. By appropriately delimiting individuals, followed by defining their states as well as their environment, it become possible to construct the general population equations that were introduced and studied by Odo Diekmann and his collaborators. In this essay I argue for taking the properties that led to these successes as the defining characteristics of the concept of individual, delegating the properties classically invoked by philosophers to the secondary role of possible empirical indicators for the presence of those characteristics. The essay starts with putting in place as rule for effective concept engineering that one should go for relations that can be used as basis for deductive structure building rather than for perceived ontological essence. By analysing how we want to use it in the mathematical arguments I then build up a concept of individual, first for use in population dynamical considerations and then for use in evolutionary ones. These two concepts do not coincide, and neither do they on all occasions agree with common intuition-based usage.

The emergence of cooperation from a single cooperative mutant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Jonas; Melbinger, Anna; Frey, Erwin

2012-02-01

Population structure is one central condition which promotes the stability of cooperation: If cooperators more likely interact with other cooperators (positive assortment), they keep most of their benefit for themselves and are less exploited by non-cooperators. However, positive assortment can only act successfully if cooperation is already well established in the population such that cooperative individuals can successfully assort. But how can cooperation emerge when starting with a single cooperative mutant? Here we study this issue for a generic situation of microbial systems where microbes regularly form new colonies and show strong population growth. We show how and when the dynamical interplay between colony formation, population growth and evolution within colonies can provoke the emergence of cooperation. In particular, the probability for a single cooperative mutant to succeed is robustly large when colony-formation is fast or comparable to the time-scale of growth within colonies; growth supports cooperation.[4pt] [1] A. Melbinger, J. Cremer, and E. Frey, Evolutionary game theory in growing populations, Phys. Rev. Lett. 105, 178101 (2010)[0pt] [2] J. Cremer, A. Melbinger, and E. Frey, Evolutionary and population dynamics: a coupled approach, arXiv:1108.2604

The post-vaccine microevolution of invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae

PubMed Central

Cremers, Amelieke J. H.; Mobegi, Fredrick M.; de Jonge, Marien I.; van Hijum, Sacha A. F. T.; Meis, Jacques F.; Hermans, Peter W. M.; Ferwerda, Gerben; Bentley, Stephen D.; Zomer, Aldert L.

2015-01-01

The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugated vaccine (PCV7) has affected the genetic population of Streptococcus pneumoniae in pediatric carriage. Little is known however about pneumococcal population genomics in adult invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) under vaccine pressure. We sequenced and serotyped 349 strains of S. pneumoniae isolated from IPD patients in Nijmegen between 2001 and 2011. Introduction of PCV7 in the Dutch National Immunization Program in 2006 preluded substantial alterations in the IPD population structure caused by serotype replacement. No evidence could be found for vaccine induced capsular switches. We observed that after a temporary bottleneck in gene diversity after the introduction of PCV7, the accessory gene pool re-expanded mainly by genes already circulating pre-PCV7. In the post-vaccine genomic population a number of genes changed frequency, certain genes became overrepresented in vaccine serotypes, while others shifted towards non-vaccine serotypes. Whether these dynamics in the invasive pneumococcal population have truly contributed to invasiveness and manifestations of disease remains to be further elucidated. We suggest the use of whole genome sequencing for surveillance of pneumococcal population dynamics that could give a prospect on the course of disease, facilitating effective prevention and management of IPD. PMID:26492862

Dynamic Network Drivers of Seizure Generation, Propagation and Termination in Human Neocortical Epilepsy

PubMed Central

Khambhati, Ankit N.; Davis, Kathryn A.; Oommen, Brian S.; Chen, Stephanie H.; Lucas, Timothy H.; Litt, Brian; Bassett, Danielle S.

2015-01-01

The epileptic network is characterized by pathologic, seizure-generating ‘foci’ embedded in a web of structural and functional connections. Clinically, seizure foci are considered optimal targets for surgery. However, poor surgical outcome suggests a complex relationship between foci and the surrounding network that drives seizure dynamics. We developed a novel technique to objectively track seizure states from dynamic functional networks constructed from intracranial recordings. Each dynamical state captures unique patterns of network connections that indicate synchronized and desynchronized hubs of neural populations. Our approach suggests that seizures are generated when synchronous relationships near foci work in tandem with rapidly changing desynchronous relationships from the surrounding epileptic network. As seizures progress, topographical and geometrical changes in network connectivity strengthen and tighten synchronous connectivity near foci—a mechanism that may aid seizure termination. Collectively, our observations implicate distributed cortical structures in seizure generation, propagation and termination, and may have practical significance in determining which circuits to modulate with implantable devices. PMID:26680762

Genetic structure of coexisting wild and managed agave populations: implications for the evolution of plants under domestication

PubMed Central

Figueredo, Carmen Julia; Casas, Alejandro; González-Rodríguez, Antonio; Nassar, Jafet M.; Colunga-GarcíaMarín, Patricia; Rocha-Ramírez, Víctor

2015-01-01

Domestication is a continuous evolutionary process guided by humans. This process leads to divergence in characteristics such as behaviour, morphology or genetics, between wild and managed populations. Agaves have been important resources for Mesoamerican peoples since prehistory. Some species are domesticated and others vary in degree of domestication. Agave inaequidens Koch is used in central Mexico to produce mescal, and a management gradient from gathered wild and silvicultural populations, as well as cultivated plantations, has been documented. Significant morphological differences were reported among wild and managed populations, and a high phenotypic variation in cultivated populations composed of plants from different populations. We evaluated levels of genetic diversity and structure associated with management, hypothesizing that high morphological variation would be accompanied by high genetic diversity in populations with high gene flow and low genetic structure among managed and unmanaged populations. Wild, silvicultural and cultivated populations were studied, collecting tissue of 19–30 plants per population. Through 10 nuclear microsatellite loci, we compared population genetic parameters. We analysed partition of variation associated with management categories to estimate gene flow among populations. Agave inaequidens exhibits high levels of genetic diversity (He = 0.707) and moderate genetic structure (FST = 0.112). No differences were found in levels of genetic diversity among wild (He = 0.704), silviculturally managed (He = 0.733) and cultivated (He = 0.698) populations. Bayesian analysis indicated that five genetic clusters best fit the data, with genetic groups corresponding to habitats where populations grow rather than to management. Migration rates ranged from zero between two populations to markedly high among others (M = 0.73–35.25). Natural mechanisms of gene flow and the dynamic management of agave propagules among populations favour gene flow and the maintenance of high levels of variation within all populations. The slight differentiation associated with management indicates that domestication is in an incipient stage. PMID:26433707

Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of the Pelagic Thresher Shark (Alopias pelagicus) in the Pacific Ocean: Evidence for Two Evolutionarily Significant Units

PubMed Central

Cardeñosa, Diego; Hyde, John; Caballero, Susana

2014-01-01

There has been an increasing concern about shark overexploitation in the last decade, especially for open ocean shark species, where there is a paucity of data about their life histories and population dynamics. Little is known regarding the population structure of the pelagic thresher shark, Alopias pelagicus. Though an earlier study using mtDNA control region data, showed evidence for differences between eastern and western Pacific populations, the study was hampered by low sample size and sparse geographic coverage, particularly a lack of samples from the central Pacific. Here, we present the population structure of Alopias pelagicus analyzing 351 samples from six different locations across the Pacific Ocean. Using data from mitochondrial DNA COI sequences and seven microsatellite loci we found evidence of strong population differentiation between western and eastern Pacific populations and evidence for reciprocally monophyly for organelle haplotypes and significant divergence of allele frequencies at nuclear loci, suggesting the existence of two Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESU) in the Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, the population in Hawaii appears to be composed of both ESUs in what seems to be clear sympatry with reproductive isolation. These results may indicate the existence of a new cryptic species in the Pacific Ocean. The presence of these distinct ESUs highlights the need for revised management plans for this highly exploited shark throughout its range. PMID:25337814

Genetic diversity and population structure of the pelagic thresher shark (Alopias pelagicus) in the Pacific Ocean: evidence for two evolutionarily significant units.

PubMed

Cardeñosa, Diego; Hyde, John; Caballero, Susana

2014-01-01

There has been an increasing concern about shark overexploitation in the last decade, especially for open ocean shark species, where there is a paucity of data about their life histories and population dynamics. Little is known regarding the population structure of the pelagic thresher shark, Alopias pelagicus. Though an earlier study using mtDNA control region data, showed evidence for differences between eastern and western Pacific populations, the study was hampered by low sample size and sparse geographic coverage, particularly a lack of samples from the central Pacific. Here, we present the population structure of Alopias pelagicus analyzing 351 samples from six different locations across the Pacific Ocean. Using data from mitochondrial DNA COI sequences and seven microsatellite loci we found evidence of strong population differentiation between western and eastern Pacific populations and evidence for reciprocally monophyly for organelle haplotypes and significant divergence of allele frequencies at nuclear loci, suggesting the existence of two Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESU) in the Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, the population in Hawaii appears to be composed of both ESUs in what seems to be clear sympatry with reproductive isolation. These results may indicate the existence of a new cryptic species in the Pacific Ocean. The presence of these distinct ESUs highlights the need for revised management plans for this highly exploited shark throughout its range.

Tangled nature model of evolutionary dynamics reconsidered: Structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Christian Walther; Sibani, Paolo

2016-05-01

Based on the stochastic dynamics of interacting agents which reproduce, mutate, and die, the tangled nature model (TNM) describes key emergent features of biological and cultural ecosystems' evolution. While trait inheritance is not included in many applications, i.e., the interactions of an agent and those of its mutated offspring are taken to be uncorrelated, in the family of TNMs introduced in this work correlations of varying strength are parametrized by a positive integer K . We first show that the interactions generated by our rule are nearly independent of K . Consequently, the structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance can be studied independently of effects related to the form of the interactions. We then show that changing K strengthens the core structure of the ecology, leads to population abundance distributions better approximated by log-normal probability densities, and increases the probability that a species extant at time tw also survives at t >tw . Finally, survival probabilities of species are shown to decay as powers of the ratio t /tw , a so-called pure aging behavior usually seen in glassy systems of physical origin. We find a quantitative dynamical effect of trait inheritance, namely, that increasing the value of K numerically decreases the decay exponent of the species survival probability.

Tangled nature model of evolutionary dynamics reconsidered: Structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance.

PubMed

Andersen, Christian Walther; Sibani, Paolo

2016-05-01

Based on the stochastic dynamics of interacting agents which reproduce, mutate, and die, the tangled nature model (TNM) describes key emergent features of biological and cultural ecosystems' evolution. While trait inheritance is not included in many applications, i.e., the interactions of an agent and those of its mutated offspring are taken to be uncorrelated, in the family of TNMs introduced in this work correlations of varying strength are parametrized by a positive integer K. We first show that the interactions generated by our rule are nearly independent of K. Consequently, the structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance can be studied independently of effects related to the form of the interactions. We then show that changing K strengthens the core structure of the ecology, leads to population abundance distributions better approximated by log-normal probability densities, and increases the probability that a species extant at time t_{w} also survives at t>t_{w}. Finally, survival probabilities of species are shown to decay as powers of the ratio t/t_{w}, a so-called pure aging behavior usually seen in glassy systems of physical origin. We find a quantitative dynamical effect of trait inheritance, namely, that increasing the value of K numerically decreases the decay exponent of the species survival probability.

Emergent properties of interacting populations of spiking neurons.

PubMed

Cardanobile, Stefano; Rotter, Stefan

2011-01-01

Dynamic neuronal networks are a key paradigm of increasing importance in brain research, concerned with the functional analysis of biological neuronal networks and, at the same time, with the synthesis of artificial brain-like systems. In this context, neuronal network models serve as mathematical tools to understand the function of brains, but they might as well develop into future tools for enhancing certain functions of our nervous system. Here, we present and discuss our recent achievements in developing multiplicative point processes into a viable mathematical framework for spiking network modeling. The perspective is that the dynamic behavior of these neuronal networks is faithfully reflected by a set of non-linear rate equations, describing all interactions on the population level. These equations are similar in structure to Lotka-Volterra equations, well known by their use in modeling predator-prey relations in population biology, but abundant applications to economic theory have also been described. We present a number of biologically relevant examples for spiking network function, which can be studied with the help of the aforementioned correspondence between spike trains and specific systems of non-linear coupled ordinary differential equations. We claim that, enabled by the use of multiplicative point processes, we can make essential contributions to a more thorough understanding of the dynamical properties of interacting neuronal populations.

Trees Wanted—Dead or Alive! Host Selection and Population Dynamics in Tree-Killing Bark Beetles

PubMed Central

Kausrud, Kyrre L.; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Skarpaas, Olav; Erbilgin, Nadir; Gilbert, Marius; Økland, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) feed and breed in dead or severely weakened host trees. When their population densities are high, some species aggregate on healthy host trees so that their defences may be exhausted and the inner bark successfully colonized, killing the tree in the process. Here we investigate under what conditions participating with unrelated conspecifics in risky mass attacks on living trees is an adaptive strategy, and what this can tell us about bark beetle outbreak dynamics. We find that the outcome of individual host selection may deviate from the ideal free distribution in a way that facilitates the emergence of tree-killing (aggressive) behavior, and that any heritability on traits governing aggressiveness seems likely to exist in a state of flux or cycles consistent with variability observed in natural populations. This may have implications for how economically and ecologically important species respond to environmental changes in climate and landscape (forest) structure. The population dynamics emerging from individual behavior are complex, capable of switching between “endemic” and “epidemic” regimes spontaneously or following changes in host availability or resistance. Model predictions are compared to empirical observations, and we identify some factors determining the occurrence and self-limitation of epidemics. PMID:21647433