The association between mid-facial morphology and climate in northeast Europe differs from that in north Asia: Implications for understanding the morphology of Late Pleistocene Homo sapiens.

PubMed

Evteev, Andrej A; Movsesian, Alla A; Grosheva, Alexandra N

2017-06-01

The climate of northeastern Europe is likely to resemble in many ways Late Pleistocene periglacial conditions in Europe, but there have been relatively few studies exploring the association between climate and morphology in the mid-face of modern northeastern European populations. To fill this gap, we sampled 540 male skulls from 22 European and Near Eastern groups, including 314 skulls from 11 populations from northeastern Europe, to test for possible climate-morphology association at the continental scale. Our results found a moderate and highly significant association (R = 0.48, p = 0.0013, Mantel test) between sets of 23 mid-facial measurements and eight climatic variables. A partial least squares analysis revealed this association to be mostly driven by differences between groups from northeastern Europe and populations from the Mediterranean and the Caucasus. Matrices of between-group genetic distances based on Y-chromosome and mtDNA markers, as well as cranial non-metric and geographic distance matrices, were used to control for the possible influence of shared population history. Irrespective of which measure of neutral between-population distances is taken into account, the association between cranial variables and climate remains significant. The pattern of association between climate and morphology of the mid-face in western Eurasia was then compared to that in east and north Asia. Although differences between the two were found, there were also similarities that support existing functional interpretations of morphology for the bony parts of the upper airways. Last, in a preliminary analysis using a reduced set of measurements, mid-facial morphology of several Upper Paleolithic European Homo sapiens specimens was found to be more similar to groups from northern and northeastern Europe than to southern European populations. Thus, the population of northeastern Europe rather than east and north Asian groups should be used as a model when studying climate-mediated mid-facial morphology of Upper Paleolithic European H. sapiens. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mitigating cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change and anthropogenic nutrients.

PubMed

Paerl, Hans W; Gardner, Wayne S; Havens, Karl E; Joyner, Alan R; McCarthy, Mark J; Newell, Silvia E; Qin, Boqiang; Scott, J Thad

2016-04-01

Mitigating the global expansion of cyanobacterial harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) is a major challenge facing researchers and resource managers. A variety of traditional (e.g., nutrient load reduction) and experimental (e.g., artificial mixing and flushing, omnivorous fish removal) approaches have been used to reduce bloom occurrences. Managers now face the additional effects of climate change on watershed hydrologic and nutrient loading dynamics, lake and estuary temperature, mixing regime, internal nutrient dynamics, and other factors. Those changes favor CyanoHABs over other phytoplankton and could influence the efficacy of control measures. Virtually all mitigation strategies are influenced by climate changes, which may require setting new nutrient input reduction targets and establishing nutrient-bloom thresholds for impacted waters. Physical-forcing mitigation techniques, such as flushing and artificial mixing, will need adjustments to deal with the ramifications of climate change. Here, we examine the suite of current mitigation strategies and the potential options for adapting and optimizing them in a world facing increasing human population pressure and climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Citizenship for a Changing Global Climate: Learning from New Zealand and Norway

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayward, Bronwyn; Selboe, Elin; Plew, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Young citizens under the age of 25?years make up just under half of the world's population. Globally, they face new, interrelated problems of dangerous environmental change, including increasing incidence of severe storms associated with a changing climate, and related new threats to human security. Addressing the complex challenge of climate…

Adapting to the health impacts of climate change in a sustainable manner.

PubMed

Hoy, Damian; Roth, Adam; Lepers, Christelle; Durham, Jo; Bell, Johann; Durand, Alexis; Lal, Padma Narsey; Souares, Yvan

2014-12-11

The climate is changing and this poses significant threats to human health. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing Pacific Island countries and territories due to their unique geophysical features, and their social, economic and cultural characteristics. The Pacific region also faces challenges with widely dispersed populations, limited resources and fragmented health systems. Over the past few years, there has been a substantial increase in international aid for health activities aimed at adapting to the threats of climate change. This funding needs to be used strategically to ensure an effective approach to reducing the health risk from climate change. Respecting the principles of development effectiveness will result in more effective and sustainable adaptation, in particular, 1) processes should be owned and driven by local communities, 2) investments should be aligned with existing national priorities and policies, and 3) existing systems must not be ignored, but rather expanded upon and reinforced.

The effectiveness of Light Rail transit in achieving regional CO2 emissions targets is linked to building energy use: insights from system dynamics modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Cities worldwide face the challenges of accommodating a growing population, while reducing emissions to meet climate mitigation targets. Public transit investments are often proposed as a way to curb emissions while maintaining healthy urban economies. However, cities face a syst...

Assisted migration: What it means to nursery managers and tree planters

Treesearch

Mary I. Williams; R. Kasten Dumroese

2014-01-01

Projections indicate that natural plant adaptation and migration may not keep pace with climate changes. This mismatch in rates will pose significant challenges for practitioners that select, grow, and outplant native tree species. Populations of native tree species planted today must be able to meet the climatic challenges they will face during this century. One...

Prioritization of gene conservation activities in the face of changing climates

Treesearch

J. Bradley St.Clair; Andy Bower; Vicky Erickson; Glenn Howe

2017-01-01

Several analyses have been done or are underway to evaluate the vulnerability of individual forest tree species to climate change. Species vulnerability assessments allow managers to allocate limited resources to the management of those species that are most threatened. But we also know that threats to individual populations of species may vary across the landscape,...

Strategies for conserving forest genetic resources in the face of climate change

Treesearch

John Bradley St. Clair; Glenn Thomas Howe

2011-01-01

Conservation of genetic diversity is important for continued evolution of populations to new environments, as well as continued availability of traits of interest in genetic improvement programs. Rapidly changing climates present new threats to the conservation of forest genetic resources. We can no longer assume that in situ reserves will continue to preserve existing...

How the National Estuary Programs Address Environmental Issues

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Estuaries face many challenges including, alteration of natural hydrologic flows, aquatic nuisance species, climate change, declines in fish and wildlife populations, habitat loss and degradation, nutrient loads, pathogens, stormwater and toxics.

Using biological data to test climate change refugia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morelli, T. L.; Maher, S. P.

2015-12-01

The concept of refugia has been discussed from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to address how populations persisted during periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, several studies have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify locations that are buffered from climate change effects so as to favor greater persistence of valued resources relative to other areas. Refugia are now being discussed among natural resource agencies as a potential adaptation option in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Using downscaled climate data, we identified hypothetical refugial meadows in the Sierra Nevada and then tested them using survey and genetic data from Belding's ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi) populations. We predicted that refugial meadows would show higher genetic diversity, higher rates of occupancy and lower rates of extirpation over time. At each step of the research, we worked with managers to ensure the largest impact. Although no panacea, identifying climate change refugia could be an important strategy for prioritizing habitats for management intervention in order to conserve populations. This research was supported by the California LCC, the Northeast Climate Science Center, and NSF.

Consequences of an uncertain mass mortality regime triggered by climate variability on giant clam population management in the Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Van Wynsberge, Simon; Andréfouët, Serge; Gaertner-Mazouni, Nabila; Remoissenet, Georges

2018-02-01

Despite actions to manage sustainably tropical Pacific Ocean reef fisheries, managers have faced failures and frustrations because of unpredicted mass mortality events triggered by climate variability. The consequences of these events on the long-term population dynamics of living resources need to be better understood for better management decisions. Here, we use a giant clam (Tridacna maxima) spatially explicit population model to compare the efficiency of several management strategies under various scenarios of natural mortality, including mass mortality due to climatic anomalies. The model was parameterized by in situ estimations of growth and mortality and fishing effort, and was validated by historical and new in situ surveys of giant clam stocks in two French Polynesia lagoons. Projections on the long run (100 years) suggested that the best management strategy was a decrease of fishing pressure through quota implementation, regardless of the mortality regime considered. In contrast, increasing the minimum legal size of catch and closing areas to fishing were less efficient. When high mortality occurred due to climate variability, the efficiency of all management scenarios decreased markedly. Simulating El Niño Southern Oscillation event by adding temporal autocorrelation in natural mortality rates increased the natural variability of stocks, and also decreased the efficiency of management. These results highlight the difficulties that managers in small Pacific islands can expect in the future in the face of global warming, climate anomalies and new mass mortalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Remote sensing applications of wildland fire and air quality in China

Treesearch

John J. Qu; Xianjun Hao; Yongqiang Liu; Allen R. Riebau; Haoruo Yi; Xianlin Qin

2009-01-01

As one of the most populous and geographically largest countries, China faces many problems including industrial growth, economic sustainability, food security, climate change, and air pollution. Interwoven with these challenges,...

Human Behavioral Contributions to Climate Change: Psychological and Contextual Drivers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swim, Janet K.; Clayton, Susan; Howard, George S.

2011-01-01

We are facing rapid changes in the global climate, and these changes are attributable to human behavior. Humans produce this global impact through our use of natural resources, multiplied by the vast increase in population seen in the past 50 to 100 years. Our goal in this article is to examine the underlying psychosocial causes of human impact,…

Genetic evidence for restricted dispersal along continuous altitudinal gradients in a climate change-sensitive mammal: the American Pika.

PubMed

Henry, Philippe; Sim, Zijian; Russello, Michael A

2012-01-01

When faced with rapidly changing environments, wildlife species are left to adapt, disperse or disappear. Consequently, there is value in investigating the connectivity of populations of species inhabiting different environments in order to evaluate dispersal as a potential strategy for persistence in the face of climate change. Here, we begin to investigate the processes that shape genetic variation within American pika populations from the northern periphery of their range, the central Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. At these latitudes, pikas inhabit sharp elevation gradients ranging from sea level to 1500 m, providing an excellent system for studying the effects of local environmental conditions on pika population genetic structure and gene flow. We found low levels of neutral genetic variation compared to previous studies from more southerly latitudes, consistent with the relatively recent post-glacial colonization of the study location. Moreover, significant levels of inbreeding and marked genetic structure were detected within and among sites. Although low levels of recent gene flow were revealed among elevations within a transect, potentially admixed individuals and first generation migrants were identified using discriminant analysis of principal components between populations separated by less than five kilometers at the same elevations. There was no evidence for historical population decline, yet there was signal for recent demographic contractions, possibly resulting from environmental stochasticity. Correlative analyses revealed an association between patterns of genetic variation and annual heat-to-moisture ratio, mean annual precipitation, precipitation as snow and mean maximum summer temperature. Changes in climatic regimes forecasted for the region may thus potentially increase the rate of population extirpation by further reducing dispersal between sites. Consequently, American pika may have to rely on local adaptations or phenotypic plasticity in order to survive predicted climate changes, although additional studies are required to investigate the evolutionary potential of this climate change sensitive species.

FACE-IT: Framework to Advance Climate, Economics, and Impact Investigations with Information Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, I.; Elliott, J. W.; Jones, J.; Montella, R.

2013-12-01

Issues relating to climate change and food security require an understanding of the interaction between the natural world and human society over long time scales. Understanding climate change, its impacts on the natural world and society, and the tradeoffs inherent in societal responses demands an unprecedented degree of cooperation across academic fields. New data sources on expected future climate, soil characteristics, economic activity, historical weather, population, and land cover, provide a potential basis for this cooperation. New methods are needed for sharing within and across communities not only data but the software used to generate, synthesize, and analyze it. Progress on these research challenges is hindered by the extreme difficulties that researchers, collaborators, and the community experiences when they collaborate around data. Multiplicity of data formats; inadequate computational tools; difficulty in sharing data and programs, lack of incentives for pro-social behavior and large data volumes are among the technology barriers. The FACE-IT project at the University of Chicago, NASA, and University of Florida employs an integrated approach to cyberinfrastructure to advance the characterization of vulnerabilities, impacts, mitigation, and adaptation to climate change in human and environmental systems. Leveraging existing research cyberinfrastructure the project is creating a full-featured FACE-IT Platform prototype with new capabilities for ingesting, organizing, managing, analyzing and using large quantities of diverse data. The project team collaborates with two distinct interdisciplinary communities to create community specific FACE-IT Instances to both advance their research and enable at-scale evaluation of the utility of the FACE-IT approach. In this talk I will introduce the FACE-IT system and discuss early applications.

Climate change and elevated extinction rates of reptiles from Mediterranean Islands.

PubMed

Foufopoulos, Johannes; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Ives, Anthony R

2011-01-01

Recent climate change has caused the distributions of many species to shift poleward, yet few empirical studies have addressed which species will be vulnerable to longer-term climate changes. To investigate past consequences of climate change, we calculated the population extinction rates of 35 reptile species from 87 Greek land-bridge islands in the Mediterranean that occurred over the past 16,000 years. Population extinction rates were higher for those species that today have more northern distributions. We further found that northern species requiring cool, mesic habitats had less available suitable habitat among islands, implicating loss of suitable habitat in their elevated extinction rates. These extinctions occurred in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, with islands shrinking and separating as sea levels rose. Thus, the circumstances faced by reptiles on the islands are similar to challenges for numerous species today that must cope with a changing climate while living in an increasingly human-fragmented landscape. Our island-biogeographical approach to investigating historical population extinctions gives insight into the long-term patterns of species responses to climate change.

Climate drivers of seed production in Picea engelmannii and response to warming temperatures in the southern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Arne Buechling; Patrick H. Martin; Charles D. Canham; Wayne D. Shepperd; Michael Battaglia

2016-01-01

The increases in seed output observed in this study may promote population fitness of P. engelmannii in the face of changing climate regimes and increasing frequencies of fire- and insect-related tree mortality in the Rocky Mountains. Since this species lacks a persistent seed bank, re-colonization of disturbed areas or dispersal to shifting habitats depends...

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

PubMed

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Extreme climate, rather than population history, explains mid-facial morphology of Northern Asians.

PubMed

Evteev, Andrej; Cardini, Andrea L; Morozova, Irina; O'Higgins, Paul

2014-03-01

Previous studies have examined mid-facial cold adaptation among either widely dispersed and genetically very diverse groups of humans isolated for tens of thousands of years, or among very closely related groups spread over climatically different regions. Here we present a study of one East Asian and seven North Asian populations in which we examine the evidence for convergent adaptations of the mid-face to a very cold climate. Our findings indicate that mid-facial morphology is strongly associated with climatic variables that contrast the temperate climate of East Asians and the very cold and dry climate of North Asians. This is also the case when either maxillary or nasal cavity measurements are considered alone. The association remains significant when mtDNA distances among populations are taken into account. The morphological contrasts between populations are consistent with physiological predictions and prior studies of mid-facial cold adaptation in more temperate regions, but among North Asians there appear to be some previously undescribed morphological features that might be considered as adaptive to extreme cold. To investigate this further, analyses of the seven North Asian populations alone suggest that mid-facial morphology remains strongly associated with climate, particularly winter precipitation, contrasting coastal Arctic and continental climates. However, the residual covariation among North Asian mid-facial morphology and climate when genetic distances are considered, is not significant. These findings point to modern adaptations to extreme climate that might be relevant to our understanding of the mid-facial morphology of fossil hominins that lived during glaciations. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Population-level thermal performance of a cold-water ectotherm is linked to ontogeny and local environmental heterogeneity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Corn, P. Stephen; , Winsor H. Lowe; , Molly A. H. Webb; , Mariah J. Talbott; , Kevin M. Kappenman

2013-01-01

5. Our experiments with a cold-water species show that population-level performance varies across small geographic scales and is linked to local environmental heterogeneity. This variation could influence the rate and mode of species-level responses to climate change, both by facilitating local persistence in the face of change

Impact of climate changes on population vital activities in Russia in the early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolotokrylin, A. N.; Vinogradova, V. V.; Titkova, T. B.; Cherenkova, E. A.; Bokuchava, D. D.; Sokolov, I. A.; Vinogradov, A. V.; Babina, E. D.

2018-01-01

The study substantiates the approach to the assessment of impact of climate change on vital activities of population in Russia in the face of increasing climate extremes. The obtained results reveal the occurrence of the essential climate extreme events over the period 1991-2013 in Russia that are vital for population activities. Annual amounts of interdiurnal temperature differences and pressure were calculated. Propagation of heat and cold waves, trends and frequencies of daily precipitation extremes were evaluated. The map “Zoning the territory of the Russian Federation by natural living conditions of the population” adapted for modern climate (2001-2010), illustrates the climate changes in the early 21st century. The modern warming of climate has led to a significant easing of discomfort in the territory of Russia. The steady decline of the absolutely unfavorable zone resulted from the expansion of less unfavorable areas is observed, especially in the Northern and Arctic regions. In the south the boundary of unfavorable territories shifts toward the north. It results in the expansion of the conditionally unfavorable area in West Siberia and in the south of East Siberia. In European Russia the favorable area expands and shifts far to the northern regions.

Global-change vulnerability of a key plant resource, the African palms.

PubMed

Blach-Overgaard, Anne; Balslev, Henrik; Dransfield, John; Normand, Signe; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-07-27

Palms are keystone species in tropical ecosystems and provide essential ecosystem services to rural people worldwide. However, many palm species are threatened by habitat loss and over-exploitation. Furthermore, palms are sensitive to climate and thus vulnerable to future climate changes. Here, we provide a first quantitative assessment of the future risks to the African palm flora, finding that African palm species on average may experience a decline in climatic suitability in >70% of their current ranges by 2080. This suitability loss may, however, be almost halved if migration to nearby climatically suitable sites succeeds. Worryingly, 42% of the areas with 80-100% of species losing climate suitability are also characterized by high human population density (HPD). By 2080, >90% of all African palm species' ranges will likely occur at HPDs leading to increased risks of habitat loss and overexploitation. Additionally, up to 87% of all species are predicted to lose climatic suitability within current protected areas (PAs) by 2080. In summary, a major plant component of tropical ecosystems and provider of ecosystem services to rural populations will face strongly increased pressures from climate change and human populations in the near future.

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

PubMed

Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

PubMed Central

Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel, Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems.

PubMed

Inoue, Kentaro; Berg, David J

2017-01-01

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream-dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward-time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater-ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream-dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change.

PubMed

Ralston, Joel; DeLuca, William V; Feldman, Richard E; King, David I

2017-04-01

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An ecology for cities: A transformational nexus of design and ecology to advance climate change resilience and urban sustainability

Treesearch

Daniel L. Childers; Mary L. Cadenasso; J. Morgan Grove; Victoria Marshall; Brian McGrath; Steward T.A. Pickett

2015-01-01

Cities around the world are facing an ever-increasing variety of challenges that seem to make more sustainable urban futures elusive. Many of these challenges are being driven by, and exacerbated by, increases in urban populations and climate change. Novel solutions are needed today if our cities are to have any hope of more sustainable and resilient futures. Because...

Water Planning in Phoenix: Managing Risk in the Face of Climatic Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gober, P.

2009-12-01

The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC) was founded in 2004 to develop scientifically-credible support tools to improve water management decisions in the face of growing climatic uncertainty and rapid urbanization in metropolitan Phoenix. At the center of DCDC's effort is WaterSim, a model that integrates information about water supply from groundwater, the Colorado River, and upstream watersheds and water demand from land use change and population growth. Decision levers enable users to manipulate model outcomes in response to climate change scenarios, drought conditions, population growth rates, technology innovations, lifestyle changes, and policy decisions. WaterSim allows users to examine the risks of water shortage from global climate change, the tradeoffs between groundwater sustainability and lifestyle choices, the effects of various policy decisions, and the consequences of delaying policy for the exposure to risk. WaterSim is an important point of contact for DCDC’s relationships with local decision makers. Knowledge, tools, and visualizations are co-produced—by scientists and policy makers, and the Center’s social scientists mine this co-production process for new insights about model development and application. WaterSim is less a static scientific product and more a dynamic process of engagement between decision makers and scientists.

Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

PubMed

Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

2014-03-01

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

Tree growth response to ENSO in Durango, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pompa-García, Marin; Miranda-Aragón, Liliana; Aguirre-Salado, Carlos Arturo

2015-01-01

The dynamics of forest ecosystems worldwide have been driven largely by climatic teleconnections. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual variation of the Earth's climate, affecting the regional climatic regime. These teleconnections may impact plant phenology, growth rate, forest extent, and other gradual changes in forest ecosystems. The objective of this study was to investigate how Pinus cooperi populations face the influence of ENSO and regional microclimates in five ecozones in northwestern Mexico. Using standard dendrochronological techniques, tree-ring chronologies (TRI) were generated. TRI, ENSO, and climate relationships were correlated from 1950-2010. Additionally, multiple regressions were conducted in order to detect those ENSO months with direct relations in TRI ( p < 0.1). The five chronologies showed similar trends during the period they overlapped, indicating that the P. cooperi populations shared an interannual growth variation. In general, ENSO index showed correspondences with tree-ring growth in synchronous periods. We concluded that ENSO had connectivity with regional climate in northern Mexico and radial growth of P. cooperi populations has been driven largely by positive ENSO values (El Niño episodes).

Tree growth response to ENSO in Durango, Mexico.

PubMed

Pompa-García, Marin; Miranda-Aragón, Liliana; Aguirre-Salado, Carlos Arturo

2015-01-01

The dynamics of forest ecosystems worldwide have been driven largely by climatic teleconnections. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual variation of the Earth's climate, affecting the regional climatic regime. These teleconnections may impact plant phenology, growth rate, forest extent, and other gradual changes in forest ecosystems. The objective of this study was to investigate how Pinus cooperi populations face the influence of ENSO and regional microclimates in five ecozones in northwestern Mexico. Using standard dendrochronological techniques, tree-ring chronologies (TRI) were generated. TRI, ENSO, and climate relationships were correlated from 1950-2010. Additionally, multiple regressions were conducted in order to detect those ENSO months with direct relations in TRI (p < 0.1). The five chronologies showed similar trends during the period they overlapped, indicating that the P. cooperi populations shared an interannual growth variation. In general, ENSO index showed correspondences with tree-ring growth in synchronous periods. We concluded that ENSO had connectivity with regional climate in northern Mexico and radial growth of P. cooperi populations has been driven largely by positive ENSO values (El Niño episodes).

Human cranial anatomy and the differential preservation of population history and climate signatures.

PubMed

Harvati, Katerina; Weaver, Timothy D

2006-12-01

Cranial morphology is widely used to reconstruct evolutionary relationships, but its reliability in reflecting phylogeny and population history has been questioned. Some cranial regions, particularly the face and neurocranium, are believed to be influenced by the environment and prone to convergence. Others, such as the temporal bone, are thought to reflect more accurately phylogenetic relationships. Direct testing of these hypotheses was not possible until the advent of large genetic data sets. The few relevant studies in human populations have had intriguing but possibly conflicting results, probably partly due to methodological differences and to the small numbers of populations used. Here we use three-dimensional (3D) geometric morphometrics methods to test explicitly the ability of cranial shape, size, and relative position/orientation of cranial regions to track population history and climate. Morphological distances among 13 recent human populations were calculated from four 3D landmark data sets, respectively reflecting facial, neurocranial, and temporal bone shape; shape and relative position; overall cranial shape; and centroid sizes. These distances were compared to neutral genetic and climatic distances among the same, or closely matched, populations. Results indicate that neurocranial and temporal bone shape track neutral genetic distances, while facial shape reflects climate; centroid size shows a weak association with climatic variables; and relative position/orientation of cranial regions does not appear correlated with any of these factors. Because different cranial regions preserve population history and climate signatures differentially, caution is suggested when using cranial anatomy for phylogenetic reconstruction. Copyright (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

PubMed

Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

2006-02-01

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

Complex spatial dynamics maintain northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) genetic diversity in a temporally varying landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Chen, Yongjiu; Stockwell, Craig A.

2013-01-01

In contrast to most local amphibian populations, northeastern populations of the Northern Leopard Frog (Lithobates pipiens) have displayed uncharacteristically high levels of genetic diversity that have been attributed to large, stable populations. However, this widely distributed species also occurs in areas known for great climatic fluctuations that should be reflected in corresponding fluctuations in population sizes and reduced genetic diversity. To test our hypothesis that Northern Leopard Frog genetic diversity would be reduced in areas subjected to significant climate variability, we examined the genetic diversity of L. pipiens collected from 12 sites within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota. Despite the region's fluctuating climate that includes periods of recurring drought and deluge, we found unexpectedly high levels of genetic diversity approaching that of northeastern populations. Further, genetic structure at a landscape scale was strikingly homogeneous; genetic differentiation estimates (Dest) averaged 0.10 (SD = 0.036) across the six microsatellite loci we studied, and two Bayesian assignment tests (STRUCTURE and BAPS) failed to reveal the development of significant population structure across the 68 km breadth of our study area. These results suggest that L. pipiens in the Prairie Pothole Region consists of a large, panmictic population capable of maintaining high genetic diversity in the face of marked climate variability.

An Ecosystem Services Framework for Desert Landscapes

EPA Science Inventory

Governments, tribal leaders and citizens of the deserts in North America are facing unprecedented pressures from population growth and climate change. The dominant environmental and economic issue is to ensure that people have access to clean water and sanitation while vital ecos...

The centrality of social ties to climate migration and mental health.

PubMed

Torres, Jacqueline M; Casey, Joan A

2017-07-06

Climate change-related hazards and disasters, known to adversely impact physical and mental health outcomes, are also expected to result in human migration above current levels. Environmentally-motivated migration and displacement may lead to the disruption of existing social ties, with potentially adverse consequences for mobile populations as well as their family members who remain in places of origin. We propose that the disruption of social ties is a key mechanism by which climate-related migration may negatively impact mental health, in particular. Existing social ties may provide social and material resources that buffer mental health stressors related to both prolonged and acute climate events. Preparation for such events may also strengthen these same ties and protect mental health. Communities may leverage social ties, first to mitigate climate change, and second, to adapt and rebuild post-disaster in communities of origin. Additionally, social ties can inform migration decisions and destinations. For example, scholars have found that the drought-motivated adaptive migration of West African Fulbe herders only occurred because of the long-term development of social networks between migrants and non-migrants through trade and seasonal grazing. On the other hand, social ties do not always benefit mental health. Some migrants, including those from poor regions or communities with no formal safety net, may face considerable burden to provide financial and emotional resources to family members who remain in countries of origin. In destination communities, migrants often face significant social marginalization. Therefore, policies and programs that aim to maintain ongoing social ties among migrants and their family and community members may be critically important in efforts to enhance population resilience and adaptation to climate change and to improve mental health outcomes. Several online platforms, like Refugee Start Force, serve to integrate refugees by connecting migrants directly to people and services in destination communities. These efforts may increasingly draw upon novel technologies to support and maintain social networks in the context of population mobility due to climatic and other factors.

An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District.

PubMed

Houghton, Adele; Austin, Jessica; Beerman, Abby; Horton, Clayton

2017-01-01

Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as "high vulnerability." Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sork, Victoria L.; Davis, Frank W.; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan L.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-01-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata N??e, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Sork, Victoria L; Davis, Frank W; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-09-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.

Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kovach, Ryan P.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Whited, Diane C.; Schmetterling, David A.; Dux, Andrew M; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2017-01-01

Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors.We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate).Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor).Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact.Synthesis and applications. Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation of freshwater biodiversity in a warming world.

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

PubMed Central

Brook, Barry W.; Hoskin, Conrad J.; Pressey, Robert L.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Williams, Stephen E.

2016-01-01

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species–area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays—an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur. PMID:27729484

General Practitioners’ Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change—A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany

PubMed Central

Herrmann, Alina; Sauerborn, Rainer

2018-01-01

Heat health impacts (HHI) on the elderly are a growing concern in the face of climate change and aging populations. General practitioners (GPs) have an important role in health care for the elderly. To inform the development of effective prevention measures, it is important to investigate GPs’ perceptions of HHI. Twenty four qualitative expert interviews were conducted with GPs and analyzed using the framework approach. GPs were generally aware of heat health impacts, focusing on cardiovascular morbidity and volume imbalances. Perceptions of mortality and for instance impacts on respiratory diseases or potentially risky drugs in heat waves partly diverged from findings in literature. GPs judged the current relevance of HHI differently depending on their attitudes towards: (i) sensitivity of the elderly, (ii) status of nursing care and (iii) heat exposure in Baden-Württemberg. Future relevance of HHI was perceived to be increasing by most GPs. The main cause identified for this was population aging, while impacts of climate change were judged as uncertain by many. GPs’ perceptions, partly diverging from literature, show that GPs’ knowledge and awareness on HHI and climate change needs to be strengthened. However, they also emphasize the need for more research on HHI in the ambulant health care setting. Furthermore, GPs perceptions suggest that strong nursing care and social networks for elderly are major elements of a climate resilient health system. PMID:29695135

General Practitioners' Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change-A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany.

PubMed

Herrmann, Alina; Sauerborn, Rainer

2018-04-24

Heat health impacts (HHI) on the elderly are a growing concern in the face of climate change and aging populations. General practitioners (GPs) have an important role in health care for the elderly. To inform the development of effective prevention measures, it is important to investigate GPs’ perceptions of HHI. Twenty four qualitative expert interviews were conducted with GPs and analyzed using the framework approach. GPs were generally aware of heat health impacts, focusing on cardiovascular morbidity and volume imbalances. Perceptions of mortality and for instance impacts on respiratory diseases or potentially risky drugs in heat waves partly diverged from findings in literature. GPs judged the current relevance of HHI differently depending on their attitudes towards: (i) sensitivity of the elderly, (ii) status of nursing care and (iii) heat exposure in Baden-Württemberg. Future relevance of HHI was perceived to be increasing by most GPs. The main cause identified for this was population aging, while impacts of climate change were judged as uncertain by many. GPs’ perceptions, partly diverging from literature, show that GPs’ knowledge and awareness on HHI and climate change needs to be strengthened. However, they also emphasize the need for more research on HHI in the ambulant health care setting. Furthermore, GPs perceptions suggest that strong nursing care and social networks for elderly are major elements of a climate resilient health system.

Integrated Approaches to Estuarine Use and Protection: Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Case Study.

EPA Science Inventory

The Tampa Bay region faces projected stress from climate change, contaminants, nutrients, and of human development on a natural ecosystem that is valued (economically, aesthetically and culturally) in its present state. With fast-paced population increases, conversion and develop...

Populations of concern: Chapter 9

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamble, Janet; Balbus, John; Berger, Martha; Bouye, Karen; Campbell, Vince; Chief, Karletta; Conlon, K.; Crimmins, Allison; Flanagan, Barry; Gonzalez-Maddux, C.; Hallisey, E.; Hutchins, S.; Jantarasami, L.; Khoury, S.; Kiefer, M.; Kolling, J.; Lynn, K.; Manangan, A.; McDonald, M.; Morello-Frosch, R.; Hiza, Margaret; Sheffield, P.; Thigpen Tart, K.; Watson, J.; Whyte, K.P.; Wolkin, A.F.

2016-01-01

Climate change is already causing, and is expected to continue to cause, a range of health impacts that vary across different population groups in the United States. The vulnerability of any given group is a function of its sensitivity to climate change related health risks, its exposure to those risks, and its capacity for responding to or coping with climate variability and change. Vulnerable groups of people, described here as populations of concern, include those with low income, some communities of color, immigrant groups (including those with limited English proficiency), Indigenous peoples, children and pregnant women, older adults, vulnerable occupational groups, persons with disabilities, and persons with preexisting or chronic medical conditions. Planners and public health officials, politicians and physicians, scientists and social service providers are tasked with understanding and responding to the health impacts of climate change. Collectively, their characterization of vulnerability should consider how populations of concern experience disproportionate, multiple, and complex risks to their health and well-being in response to climate change. Some groups face a number of stressors related to both climate and non-climate factors. For example, people living in impoverished urban or isolated rural areas, floodplains, coastlines, and other at-risk locations are more vulnerable not only to extreme weather and persistent climate change but also to social and economic stressors. Many of these stressors can occur simultaneously or consecutively. Over time, this “accumulation” of multiple, complex stressors is expected to become more evident1 as climate impacts interact with stressors associated with existing mental and physical health conditions and with other socioeconomic and demographic factors.

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

PubMed Central

Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2013-01-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico.

PubMed

Grineski, Sara E; Collins, Timothy W; McDonald, Yolanda J; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2015-02-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed.

Climate Change Science, Impacts, Solutions - A Senior Science Course for Post-Secondary Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, J. M.; Little, L. J.; Barnes, C. C.; Mirmasoudi, S.; Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Reiger, C.; Rodriguez Bueno, R. A.

2015-12-01

The role of humanity in warming the global climate is well defined. The research community has predicted and documented many of the early impacts of climate change. The research literature has extensive assessments of future impacts on environment, cities, agriculture, human health, infrastructure, social and political changes, and the risks of military conflict. Society is facing massive infrastructure redevelopment, protection and possible abandonment due to increasing weather extremes. We have reached the point where science consensus is obvious and the population over much of the developed and developing world understands the urgency - humanity is changing the climate. The challenge is helping people help themselves. People understand there are consequences - they want to know how to minimize those consequences, and how to adapt to minimize the impacts. There is a dire need for a senior level course that addresses the key issues across disciplines. This course should cover a range of topics across many disciplinary boundaries, including: an introduction to the science, politics, health and well-being challenges of climate change; likely changes to personal and community lifestyles; consumption of energy and other resources. Population migration due to climate change impacts is a critical topic. Most important, the course must address the solutions to climate change. The population is demanding the power to address this massive challenge. This course will provide a multimedia curriculum on the impacts and solutions to our climate change dilemma.

Adaptive population divergence and directional gene flow across steep elevational gradients in a climate‐sensitive mammal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waterhouse, Matthew D.; Erb, Liesl P.; Beever, Erik; Russello, Michael A.

2018-01-01

The American pika is a thermally sensitive, alpine lagomorph species. Recent climate-associated population extirpations and genetic signatures of reduced population sizes range-wide indicate the viability of this species is sensitive to climate change. To test for potential adaptive responses to climate stress, we sampled pikas along two elevational gradients (each ~470 to 1640 m) and employed three outlier detection methods, BAYESCAN, LFMM, and BAYPASS, to scan for genotype-environment associations in samples genotyped at 30,763 SNP loci. We resolved 173 loci with robust evidence of natural selection detected by either two independent analyses or replicated in both transects. A BLASTN search of these outlier loci revealed several genes associated with metabolic function and oxygen transport, indicating natural selection from thermal stress and hypoxia. We also found evidence of directional gene flow primarily downslope from large high-elevation populations and reduced gene flow at outlier loci, a pattern suggesting potential impediments to the upward elevational movement of adaptive alleles in response to contemporary climate change. Finally, we documented evidence of reduced genetic diversity associated the south-facing transect and an increase in corticosterone stress levels associated with inbreeding. This study suggests the American pika is already undergoing climate-associated natural selection at multiple genomic regions. Further analysis is needed to determine if the rate of climate adaptation in the American pika and other thermally sensitive species will be able to keep pace with rapidly changing climate conditions.

Linked hydrologic and social systems that support resilience of traditional irrigation communities

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Southwestern US irrigated landscapes are facing upheaval due to water scarcity and land use conversion associated with climate change, population growth, and changing economics. In the traditionally irrigated valleys of northern New Mexico, these stresses, as well as instances of community longevity...

The application of genomics and bioinformatics to accelerate crop improvement in a changing climate.

PubMed

Batley, Jacqueline; Edwards, David

2016-04-01

The changing climate and growing global population will increase pressure on our ability to produce sufficient food. The breeding of novel crops and the adaptation of current crops to the new environment are required to ensure continued food production. Advances in genomics offer the potential to accelerate the genomics based breeding of crop plants. However, relating genomic data to climate related agronomic traits for use in breeding remains a huge challenge, and one which will require coordination of diverse skills and expertise. Bioinformatics, when combined with genomics has the potential to help maintain food security in the face of climate change through the accelerated production of climate ready crops. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as “high vulnerability.” Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment. PMID:28352286

Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan.

PubMed

Malik, Sadia Mariam; Awan, Haroon; Khan, Niazullah

2012-09-03

Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and geographic terms- such as Balochistan, Low-Intensity Punjab, and Cotton-Wheat Sindh -also happen to be the most deprived regions in Pakistan in terms of socio-economic indicators, suggesting that the government needs to direct its efforts to the socio-economic uplift of these lagging regions to reduce their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change.

Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations

PubMed Central

Aitken, Sally N; Yeaman, Sam; Holliday, Jason A; Wang, Tongli; Curtis-McLane, Sierra

2008-01-01

Abstract Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post-glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small effects of many genes, and the resulting genotypic redundancy combined with high fecundity may facilitate rapid local adaptation despite high gene flow. Gene flow with preadapted alleles from warmer climates may promote adaptation and migration at the leading edge, while populations at the rear will likely face extirpation. Widespread species with large populations and high fecundity are likely to persist and adapt, but will likely suffer adaptational lag for a few generations. As all tree species will be suffering lags, interspecific competition may weaken, facilitating persistence under suboptimal conditions. Species with small populations, fragmented ranges, low fecundity, or suffering declines due to introduced insects or diseases should be candidates for facilitated migration. PMID:25567494

Comparative phylogeography highlights the double-edged sword of climate change faced by arctic- and alpine-adapted mammals.

PubMed

Lanier, Hayley C; Gunderson, Aren M; Weksler, Marcelo; Fedorov, Vadim B; Olson, Link E

2015-01-01

Recent studies suggest that alpine and arctic organisms may have distinctly different phylogeographic histories from temperate or tropical taxa, with recent range contraction into interglacial refugia as opposed to post-glacial expansion out of refugia. We use a combination of phylogeographic inference, demographic reconstructions, and hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation to test for phylodemographic concordance among five species of alpine-adapted small mammals in eastern Beringia. These species (Collared Pikas, Hoary Marmots, Brown Lemmings, Arctic Ground Squirrels, and Singing Voles) vary in specificity to alpine and boreal-tundra habitat but share commonalities (e.g., cold tolerance and nunatak survival) that might result in concordant responses to Pleistocene glaciations. All five species contain a similar phylogeographic disjunction separating eastern and Beringian lineages, which we show to be the result of simultaneous divergence. Genetic diversity is similar within each haplogroup for each species, and there is no support for a post-Pleistocene population expansion in eastern lineages relative to those from Beringia. Bayesian skyline plots for four of the five species do not support Pleistocene population contraction. Brown Lemmings show evidence of late Quaternary demographic expansion without subsequent population decline. The Wrangell-St. Elias region of eastern Alaska appears to be an important zone of recent secondary contact for nearctic alpine mammals. Despite differences in natural history and ecology, similar phylogeographic histories are supported for all species, suggesting that these, and likely other, alpine- and arctic-adapted taxa are already experiencing population and/or range declines that are likely to synergistically accelerate in the face of rapid climate change. Climate change may therefore be acting as a double-edged sword that erodes genetic diversity within populations but promotes divergence and the generation of biodiversity.

Comparative Phylogeography Highlights the Double-Edged Sword of Climate Change Faced by Arctic- and Alpine-Adapted Mammals

PubMed Central

Lanier, Hayley C.; Gunderson, Aren M.; Weksler, Marcelo; Fedorov, Vadim B.; Olson, Link E.

2015-01-01

Recent studies suggest that alpine and arctic organisms may have distinctly different phylogeographic histories from temperate or tropical taxa, with recent range contraction into interglacial refugia as opposed to post-glacial expansion out of refugia. We use a combination of phylogeographic inference, demographic reconstructions, and hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation to test for phylodemographic concordance among five species of alpine-adapted small mammals in eastern Beringia. These species (Collared Pikas, Hoary Marmots, Brown Lemmings, Arctic Ground Squirrels, and Singing Voles) vary in specificity to alpine and boreal-tundra habitat but share commonalities (e.g., cold tolerance and nunatak survival) that might result in concordant responses to Pleistocene glaciations. All five species contain a similar phylogeographic disjunction separating eastern and Beringian lineages, which we show to be the result of simultaneous divergence. Genetic diversity is similar within each haplogroup for each species, and there is no support for a post-Pleistocene population expansion in eastern lineages relative to those from Beringia. Bayesian skyline plots for four of the five species do not support Pleistocene population contraction. Brown Lemmings show evidence of late Quaternary demographic expansion without subsequent population decline. The Wrangell-St. Elias region of eastern Alaska appears to be an important zone of recent secondary contact for nearctic alpine mammals. Despite differences in natural history and ecology, similar phylogeographic histories are supported for all species, suggesting that these, and likely other, alpine- and arctic-adapted taxa are already experiencing population and/or range declines that are likely to synergistically accelerate in the face of rapid climate change. Climate change may therefore be acting as a double-edged sword that erodes genetic diversity within populations but promotes divergence and the generation of biodiversity. PMID:25734275

Relationship of cranial robusticity to cranial form, geography and climate in Homo sapiens.

PubMed

Baab, Karen L; Freidline, Sarah E; Wang, Steven L; Hanson, Timothy

2010-01-01

Variation in cranial robusticity among modern human populations is widely acknowledged but not well-understood. While the use of "robust" cranial traits in hominin systematics and phylogeny suggests that these characters are strongly heritable, this hypothesis has not been tested. Alternatively, cranial robusticity may be a response to differences in diet/mastication or it may be an adaptation to cold, harsh environments. This study quantifies the distribution of cranial robusticity in 14 geographically widespread human populations, and correlates this variation with climatic variables, neutral genetic distances, cranial size, and cranial shape. With the exception of the occipital torus region, all traits were positively correlated with each other, suggesting that they should not be treated as individual characters. While males are more robust than females within each of the populations, among the independent variables (cranial shape, size, climate, and neutral genetic distances), only shape is significantly correlated with inter-population differences in robusticity. Two-block partial least-squares analysis was used to explore the relationship between cranial shape (captured by three-dimensional landmark data) and robusticity across individuals. Weak support was found for the hypothesis that robusticity was related to mastication as the shape associated with greater robusticity was similar to that described for groups that ate harder-to-process diets. Specifically, crania with more prognathic faces, expanded glabellar and occipital regions, and (slightly) longer skulls were more robust than those with rounder vaults and more orthognathic faces. However, groups with more mechanically demanding diets (hunter-gatherers) were not always more robust than groups practicing some form of agriculture.

Modern-Day Demographic Processes in Central Europe and Their Potential Interactions with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bański, Jerzy

2013-01-01

The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of contemporary transformations in the population of Central European countries on climate change, in addition to singling out the primary points of interaction between demographic processes and the climate. In analyzing the interactions between climate and demographics, we can formulate three basic hypotheses regarding the region in question: 1) as a result of current demographic trends in Central Europe, the influence of the region on its climate will probably diminish, 2) the importance of the "climatically displaced" in global migratory movements will increase, and some of those concerned will move to Central Europe, 3) the contribution of the region to global food security will increase. In the last decade most of what comprises the region of Central Europe has reported a decline in population growth and a negative migration balance. As a process, this loss of population may have a positive effect on the environment and the climate. We can expect ongoing climate change to intensify migration processes, particularly from countries outside Europe. Interactions between climate and demographic processes can also be viewed in the context of food security. The global warming most sources foresee for the coming decades is the process most likely to result in spatial polarization of food production in agriculture. Central Europe will then face the challenge of assuring and improving food security, albeit this time on a global scale.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale.

PubMed

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-11-11

The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the 'Perceived Temperature' procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. The global maps 1971-1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm-humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041-2050 based on the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial.

Technology in Art Therapy: Ethical Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alders, Amanda; Beck, Liz; Allen, Pat B.; Mosinski, Barbara

2011-01-01

As technology advances, art therapy practices are adapting to the demands of a new cultural climate. Art therapists face a number of ethical challenges as they interact with increasingly diverse populations and employ new media. This article addresses some of the ethical and professional issues related to the use of technology in clinical…

Securing the Future of Water, Energy and Food: Can solutions for the currently stressed countries provide the direction for ensuring global water sustainability and food security in the 21st century?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

2014-12-01

Where will the food for the 9 billion people we expect on Earth by 2050 come from? The answer to this question depends on where the water and the energy for agriculture will come from. This assumes of course, that our primary food source will continue to be based on production on land, and that irrigation and the use of fertilizers to improve production are needed to address climate shocks and deteriorating soil health. Given this, establishing an economically, environmentally and physically feasible pathway to achieve water, energy and food security in the face of a changing climate is crucial to planetary well-being. A central hypothesis of the proposed paper is that innovation towards agricultural sustainability in countries such as India and China, that have large populations relative to their water, energy and arable land endowment, and yet have opportunity for improvement in productivity metrics such as crop yield per unit water or energy use, can show us the way to achieve global water-food-energy sustainability. These countries experience a monsoonal climate, which has a high frequency of climate extremes (more floods and droughts, and a short rainy season) relative to the developed countries in temperate climates. Global climate change projections indicate that the frequency and severity of extremes may pose a challenge in the future. Thus, strategies that are resilient to such extremes in monsoonal climates may be of global value in a warmer, more variable world. Much of the future population growth is expected to occur in Africa, S. America and S. Asia. Targeting these regions for higher productivity and resilience is consequently important from a national security perspective as well. Through this paper, we propose to (a) layout in detail, the challenges faced by the water, energy and food sectors in emerging countries, with specific focus on India and China and (b) provide the scientific background for an integrated systems analytic approach to formulate solutions at varying scales that can be employed globally. Such coordinated analyses is important for an examination of the future water sustainability in the face of changing climate, agricultural trends, environmental impacts and new energy choices.

Governing for a Healthy Population: Towards an Understanding of How Decision-Making Will Determine Our Global Health in a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Bowen, Kathryn J.; Friel, Sharon; Ebi, Kristie; Butler, Colin D.; Miller, Fiona; McMichael, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

Enhancing the adaptive capacity of individuals, communities, institutions and nations is pivotal to protecting and improving human health and well-being in the face of systemic social inequity plus dangerous climate change. However, research on the determinants of adaptive capacity in relation to health, particularly concerning the role of governance, is in its infancy. This paper highlights the intersections between global health, climate change and governance. It presents an overview of these key concerns, their relation to each other, and the potential that a greater understanding of governance may present opportunities to strengthen policy and action responses to the health effects of climate change. Important parallels between addressing health inequities and sustainable development practices in the face of global environmental change are also highlighted. We propose that governance can be investigated through two key lenses within the earth system governance theoretical framework; agency and architecture. These two governance concepts can be evaluated using methods of social network research and policy analysis using case studies and is the subject of further research. PMID:22470278

The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird.

PubMed

Hu, Junhua; Hu, Huijian; Jiang, Zhigang

2010-10-01

There is now ample evidence of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the distribution and abundance of species. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an endangered migratory species and endemic to East Asia. Using a maximum entropy approach, we predicted the potential wintering distribution for spoonbills and modeled the effects of future climate change. Elevation, human influence index and precipitation during the coldest quarter contributed most to model development. Five regions, including western Taiwan, scattered locations from eastern coastal to central mainland China, coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea, northeastern coastal areas of Vietnam and sites along the coast of Japan, were found to have a high probability of presence and showed good agreement with historical records. Assuming no limits to the spread of this species, the wintering range is predicted to increase somewhat under a changing climate. However, three currently highly suitable regions (northeastern Vietnam, Taiwan and coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea) may face strong reductions in range by 2080. We also found that the center of the predicted range of spoonbills will undergo a latitudinal shift northwards by as much as 240, 450, and 600 km by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. Our findings suggest that species distribution modeling can inform the current and future management of the black-faced spoonbill throughout Asia. It is clear that a strong international strategy is needed to conserve spoonbill populations under a changing climate.

Influence of watershed topographic and socio-economic attributes on the climate sensitivity of global river water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Afed U.; Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Zheng, Yi

2017-10-01

Surface waters exhibit regionalization due to various climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. Here we assess the impact of topographic and socio-economic factors on the climate sensitivity of surface water quality, estimated using an elasticity approach (climate elasticity of water quality (CEWQ)), and identify potential risks of instability in different regions and climatic conditions. Large global datasets were used for 12 main water quality parameters from 43 water quality monitoring stations located at large major rivers. The results demonstrated that precipitation elasticity shows higher sensitivity to topographic and socio-economic determinants as compared to temperature elasticity. In tropical climate class (A), gross domestic product (GDP) played an important role in stabilizing the CEWQ. In temperate climate class (C), GDP played the same role in stability, while the runoff coefficient, slope, and population density fuelled the risk of instability. The results implied that watersheds with lower runoff coefficient, thick population density, over fertilization and manure application face a higher risk of instability. We discuss the socio-economic and topographic factors that cause instability of CEWQ parameters and conclude with some suggestions for watershed managers to bring sustainability in freshwater bodies.

Complex Challenges in the Less-Developed World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, P. J.

2016-12-01

The developing world faces special challenges in a changing climate. The immediate impacts of possible increased precipitation, more frequent and severe hazard events and sea-level rise are compounded by lack of resources and, often, rapidly growing populations. We examine the concept that the society that learns to deal with hazards in the current climate will be best placed to deal with possibly more frequent and more intense hazards in the future. We use as an example the conundrum facing Bangladesh where global sea-level rise is exaggerated by delta subsidence of river sediment. Sedimentation is expected to increase with increased river flow. We explore how authorities may deal with these multifaceted threats and how they need to carefully thread a strategy that leads to solutions and not exaggerations of the problem.

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Brook, Barry W; Hoskin, Conrad J; Pressey, Robert L; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Williams, Stephen E

2016-10-01

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur. © 2016 The Author(s).

Economic performance of water storage capacity expansion for food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gohar, Abdelaziz A.; Ward, Frank A.; Amer, Saud A.

2013-03-01

SummaryContinued climate variability, population growth, and rising food prices present ongoing challenges for achieving food and water security in poor countries that lack adequate water infrastructure. Undeveloped storage infrastructure presents a special challenge in northern Afghanistan, where food security is undermined by highly variable water supplies, inefficient water allocation rules, and a damaged irrigation system due three decades of war and conflict. Little peer-reviewed research to date has analyzed the economic benefits of water storage capacity expansions as a mechanism to sustain food security over long periods of variable climate and growing food demands needed to feed growing populations. This paper develops and applies an integrated water resources management framework that analyzes impacts of storage capacity expansions for sustaining farm income and food security in the face of highly fluctuating water supplies. Findings illustrate that in Afghanistan's Balkh Basin, total farm income and food security from crop irrigation increase, but at a declining rate as water storage capacity increases from zero to an amount equal to six times the basin's long term water supply. Total farm income increases by 21%, 41%, and 42% for small, medium, and large reservoir capacity, respectively, compared to the existing irrigation system unassisted by reservoir storage capacity. Results provide a framework to target water infrastructure investments that improve food security for river basins in the world's dry regions with low existing storage capacity that face ongoing climate variability and increased demands for food security for growing populations.

Impacts of Potential Changes in Land Use, Climate, and Water Use on Water Availability, Coastal Carolinas Region, Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurley, L. N.; Garcia, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sustainable growth in coastal areas with rapidly increasing populations, such as the coastal regions of North and South Carolina, relies on an understanding of the current state of coastal natural resources coupled with the ability to assess future impacts of changing coastal communities and resources. Changes in climate, water use, population, and land use (e.g. urbanization) will place additional stress on societal and ecological systems that are already competing for water resources. The potential effects of these stressors on water availability are not fully known. To meet societal and ecological needs, water resources management and planning efforts require estimates of likely impacts of population growth, land-use, and climate. Two Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) hydrologic models were developed to help address the challenges that water managers face in the Carolinas: the (1) Cape Fear and (2) Pee Dee drainage basins. SWAT is a basin-scale, process-based watershed model with the capability of simulating water-management scenarios. Model areas were divided into two square mile sub-basins to evaluate ecological response at headwater streams. The sub-basins were subsequently divided into smaller, discrete hydrologic response units based on land use, slope, and soil type. Monthly and annual water-use data were used for 2000 to 2014 and included estimates of municipal, industrial, agricultural, and commercial water use. Models were calibrated for 2000 to 2014 and potential future streamflows were estimated through 2060 based on a suite of scenarios that integrated land use change projections, climate projections and water-use forecasts. The approaches and new techniques developed as part of this research could be applied to other coastal areas that face similar current and future water availability demands.

Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes.

PubMed

Hägg, Hanna Eriksson; Lyon, Steve W; Wällstedt, Teresia; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Claremar, Björn; Humborg, Christoph

2014-04-01

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

Genetic variation in Pinus strobiformis growth and drought tolerance from southwestern US populations.

PubMed

Goodrich, Betsy A; Waring, Kristen M; Kolb, Thomas E

2016-10-01

The persistence of some tree species is threatened by combinations of novel abiotic and biotic stressors. To examine the hypothesis that Pinus strobiformis Engelm., a tree threatened by an invasive forest pathogen and a changing climate, exhibits intraspecific genetic variation in adaptive traits, we conducted a common garden study of seedlings at one location with two watering regimes using 24 populations. Four key findings emerged: (i) growth and physiological traits were low to moderately differentiated among populations but differentiation was high for some traits in water-stressed populations; (ii) seedlings from warmer climates grew larger, had higher stomatal density and were more water-use efficient (as measured by the carbon isotope ratio) than populations from colder climates; (iii) seedlings from the northern edge of the species' distribution had lower water-use efficiency, higher stomatal conductance, slower growth and longer survival in a lethal drought experiment compared with seedlings from more southern populations; and (iv) based on non-metric multidimensional scaling analyses, populations clustered into southern and northern groups, which did not correspond to current seed transfer zones. Our discovery of a clinal geographic pattern of genetic variation in adaptive traits of P. strobiformis seedlings will be useful in developing strategies to maintain the species during ongoing climate change and in the face of an invasive pathogen. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Authorship in IPCC AR5 and its implications for content: climate change and Indigenous populations in WGII.

PubMed

Ford, James D; Vanderbilt, Will; Berrang-Ford, Lea

This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change ('Indigenous content') to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous populations and involved as authors in 6/30 chapters. Drawing upon recent scholarship highlighting how authorship affect structure and content of assessment reports, we argue that, unaddressed, this will affect the extent to which Indigenous content is examined and assessed. While it is too late to alter the structure of AR5, there are opportunities to prioritize the recruitment of contributing authors and reviewers with expertise on Indigenous issues, raise awareness among CAs on the characteristics of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability faced by Indigenous peoples, and highlight how Indigenous perspectives can help broaden our understanding of climate change and policy interventions.

Deteriorating food security in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milesi, C.; Samanta, A.; Hashimoto, H.; Kumar, K.; Ganguly, S.; Thenkabail, P. S.; Srivastava, A. N.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2009-12-01

One of the major challenges we face on our planet is increasing agricultural production to meet the dietary requirements of an additional 2.5 billion people by the mid of the century while limiting cropland expansion and other damages to natural resources. This problem is even more so challenging given that nearly all the population growth will take place where the majority of the hungry live today and where ongoing and future climate changes are projected to most negatively impact agricultural production, the semi-arid tropics (SAT). The SAT contain 40% of the global irrigated and rainfed croplands in over 50 developing countries and a growing population of over a billion and half people, many of which live in absolute poverty and strongly depend on agriculture that is constrained by chronic water shortages. Rates of food grain production in many of the countries of the SAT have progressively increased since the mid 1960s aided by the Green Revolution and relatively favourable climatic conditions. However, aggregated agricultural production statistics indicate that the rate of food grain production has recently stalled or declined in several of the countries in this region, escalating the concerns over matters of food security, that is availability of food and one’s access to it, in a region where many people live in extreme poverty, depend on an agrarian economy and are expected to face increasingly worse climatic conditions in the near future. In this paper we analyze the agricultural deceleration and its drivers over the country of India, which faces the daunting challenge of needing a 50-100% increase in yields of major crops by the middle to the 21st century to feed its growing population. We analyze the long term (1982-2006) record of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) together with climate, land use, and crop production statistics. We show that while there are no significant changes in long-term precipitation, there are geographically matching patterns of enhanced crop production and irrigation expansion with groundwater, initially, but both of which have levelled off in the past decade. In addition to increasing pressure on water resources, a decline in expansion of cropland area, a warming climate and increasing air pollution compound to challenging long term food security in India.

Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: A bird’s eye view

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Joseph J.; Decker, Karie L.; Skagen, Susan K.; van Riper, Charles

2009-01-01

Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.

Physiological constraints on organismal response to global warming: Mechanistic insights from clinally varying populations and implications for assessing endangerment.

PubMed

Bernardo, Joseph; Spotila, James R

2006-03-22

Recent syntheses indicate that global warming affects diverse biological processes, but also highlight the potential for some species to adapt behaviourally or evolutionarily to rapid climate change. Far less attention has addressed the alternative, that organisms lacking this ability may face extinction, a fate projected to befall one-quarter of global biodiversity. This conclusion is controversial, in part because there exist few mechanistic studies that show how climate change could precipitate extinction. We provide a concrete, mechanistic example of warming as a stressor of organisms that are closely adapted to cool climates from a comparative analysis of organismal tolerance among clinally varying populations along a natural thermal gradient. We found that two montane salamanders exhibit significant metabolic depression at temperatures within the natural thermal range experienced by low and middle elevation populations. Moreover, the magnitude of depression was inversely related to native elevation, suggesting that low elevation populations are already living near the limit of their physiological tolerances. If this finding generally applies to other montane specialists, the prognosis for biodiversity loss in typically diverse montane systems is sobering. We propose that indices of warming-induced stress tolerance may provide a critical new tool for quantitative assessments of endangerment due to anthropogenic climate change across diverse species.

Experts' Perceptions on China's Capacity to Manage Emerging and Re-emerging Zoonotic Diseases in an Era of Climate Change.

PubMed

Hansen, A; Xiang, J; Liu, Q; Tong, M X; Sun, Y; Liu, X; Chen, K; Cameron, S; Hanson-Easey, S; Han, G-S; Weinstein, P; Williams, C; Bi, P

2017-11-01

Zoonotic diseases transmitted by arthropods and rodents are a major public health concern in China. However, interventions in recent decades have helped lower the incidence of several diseases despite the country's large, frequently mobile population and socio-economic challenges. Increasing globalization, rapid urbanization and a warming climate now add to the complexity of disease control and prevention and could challenge China's capacity to respond to threats of emerging and re-emerging zoonoses. To investigate this notion, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 30 infectious disease experts in four cities in China. The case study diseases under discussion were malaria, dengue fever and haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, all of which may be influenced by changing meteorological conditions. Data were analysed using standard qualitative techniques. The study participants viewed the current disease prevention and control system favourably and were optimistic about China's capacity to manage climate-sensitive diseases in the future. Several recommendations emerged from the data including the need to improve health literacy in the population regarding the transmission of infectious diseases and raising awareness of the health impacts of climate change amongst policymakers and health professionals. Participants thought that research capacity could be strengthened and human resources issues for front-line staff should be addressed. It was considered important that authorities are well prepared in advance for outbreaks such as dengue fever in populous subtropical areas, and a prompt and coordinated response is required when outbreaks occur. Furthermore, health professionals need to remain skilled in the identification of diseases for which incidence is declining, so that re-emerging or emerging trends can be rapidly identified. Recommendations such as these may be useful in formulating adaptation plans and capacity building for the future control and prevention of climate-sensitive zoonotic diseases in China and neighbouring countries. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh.

PubMed

Faisal, Islam M; Parveen, Saila

2004-10-01

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.

Mapping urban climate zones and quantifying climate behaviors--an application on Toulouse urban area (France).

PubMed

Houet, Thomas; Pigeon, Grégoire

2011-01-01

Facing the concern of the population to its environment and to climatic change, city planners are now considering the urban climate in their choices of planning. The use of climatic maps, such Urban Climate Zone‑UCZ, is adapted for this kind of application. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the UCZ classification, integrated in the World Meteorological Organization guidelines, first can be automatically determined for sample areas and second is meaningful according to climatic variables. The analysis presented is applied on Toulouse urban area (France). Results show first that UCZ differentiate according to air and surface temperature. It has been possible to determine the membership of sample areas to an UCZ using landscape descriptors automatically computed with GIS and remote sensed data. It also emphasizes that climate behavior and magnitude of UCZ may vary from winter to summer. Finally we discuss the influence of climate data and scale of observation on UCZ mapping and climate characterization. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Curricular Innovation for Sustainability: The Piedmont/Ponderosa Model of Faculty Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barlett, Peggy F.; Chase, Geoffrey W.

2012-01-01

Curricular innovation is at the center of the challenges many colleges and universities face as they seek to help students address more successfully than previous generations the complex, multi-faceted, systemic challenges of global climate change, population growth, loss of biodiversity, environmental justice, toxic wastes, and food insecurity.…

Interface modeling for predicting atmospheric transport of biota

Treesearch

Gary L. Achtemeier

2002-01-01

The influx of foreign organisms and the growing resistance of resident organisms to chemical controls are coming at a time of increasing world population and need for greater efficiency in food production in the face of changing world climate. Rapid transportation and increased world trade have introduced foreign pests into American agricultural areas. Pesticides are...

Realities of War: Using Picture Books to Teach the Social Effects of Armed Conflicts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suzuki, Tadayuki; Huss, Jeanine; Fiehn, Barbara; Spencer, Roxanne Myers

2015-01-01

Teachers regularly evaluate children's literature for literary quality and age-appropriate information. Today's picture books address issues such as world population, homelessness, climate change, and other socially important themes, but when faced with social studies lessons on sensitive topics such as war and its reality, elementary teachers may…

Creating a Climate for Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brennan, Deborah D.

2015-01-01

As the first principal of a new Title 1 school in Texas, Deborah Brennan faced the challenge of where to begin improving instruction when a school's population bears no resemblance to the traditional Response to Intervention pyramid (in which 75-85 percent of students flourish with Tier 1 instruction). In contrast, nearly 300 of the 850 students…

Forecasting wildlife response to rapid warming in the Alaskan Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Flint, Paul L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Koch, Joshua C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Oakley, Karen L.; Pearce, John M.

2015-01-01

Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic, associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions.

Perceptions of capacity for infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenges of dengue fever in the face of climate change: A survey among CDC staff in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Cameron, Scott; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2016-07-01

Dengue fever is an important climate-sensitive mosquito-borne viral disease that poses a risk to half the world's population. The disease is a major public health issue in China where in 2014 a major outbreak occurred in Guangdong Province. This study aims to gauge health professionals' perceptions about the capacity of infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenge of dengue fever in the face of climate change in Guangdong Province, China. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was administered among staff in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCs) in Guangdong Province. Data analysis was undertaken using descriptive methods and logistic regression. In total, 260 questionnaires were completed. Most participants (80.7%) thought climate change would have a negative effect on population health, and 98.4% of participants reported dengue fever had emerged or re-emerged in China in recent years. Additionally, 74.9% of them indicated that the capability of the CDCs to detect infectious disease outbreak/epidemic at an early stage was excellent; 86.3% indicated laboratories could provide diagnostic support rapidly; and 83.1% believed levels of current staff would be adequate in the event of a major outbreak. Logistic regression analysis showed higher levels of CDCs were perceived to have better capacity for infectious disease control and prevention. Only 26.8% of participants thought they had a good understanding of climate change, and most (85.4%) thought they needed more information about the health impacts of climate change. Most surveyed staff suggested the following strategies to curb the public health impact of infectious diseases in relation to climate change: primary prevention measures, strengthening the monitoring of infectious diseases, the ability to actively forecast disease outbreaks by early warning systems, and more funding for public health education programs. Vigilant disease and vector surveillance, preventive practice and health promotion programs will likely be significant in addressing the threat of dengue fever in the future. Further efforts are needed to strengthen the awareness of climate change among health professionals, and to promote relevant actions to minimize the health burden of infectious diseases in a changing climate. Results will be critical for policy makers facing the current and future challenges associated with infectious disease prevention and control in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water, climate change and society in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Simmer, C.

2017-12-01

Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh with a population of over 17 million people, is among the top five coastal cities most vulnerable to climate change, with over 30 % of the population living in slums. Effective disaster mitigation and adaptation requires an understanding how hazards such as flooding impact the population. The impacts of climate change on flooding and thus livelihoods in the complex delta of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers can not be treated isolated from other anthropogenic impacts due to e.g. the construction of dams as well as a growing population. We illustrate this by setting up a conceptual socio-hydrological causal network using the enhanced Driving force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response framework. The constructed socio-hydrological framework includes both natural and anthropogenic processes and their two-way feedbacks, allowing policy makers to know where available resources can be used effectively to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. We conclude that climate change takes place over long stretches of time and thus enable the population of Bangladesh to adapt slowly. Resources such as social capital, which is one of the main tools for slum dwellers to be able to cope with flooding can be altered over time, and as such the system can be considered overall stable and resilient. However, transboundary water sharing issues during the dry season and other implications resulting from dam structures such as Farakka Barrage complicate a prognosis on how the rapidly growing population will be affected in the 21st century. This is particularly important in connection with previous findings, which suggest that the Greater Dhaka population already experience a significant increase in mortality during droughts. Climate change can thus be seen as an anthropogenic amplification of the socio-hydrological challenges already faced by Bangladesh today.

Effects of heat stress on working populations when facing climate change.

PubMed

Lundgren, Karin; Kuklane, Kalev; Gao, Chuansi; Holmér, Ingvar

2013-01-01

It is accepted that the earth's climate is changing in an accelerating pace, with already documented implications for human health and the environment. This literature review provides an overview of existing research findings about the effects of heat stress on the working population in relation to climate change. In the light of climate change adaptation, the purpose of the literature review was to explore recent and previous research into the impacts of heat stress on humans in an occupational setting. Heat stress in the workplace has been researched extensively in the past however, in the contemporary context of climate change, information is lacking on its extent and implications. The main factors found to exacerbate heat stress in the current and future workplace are the urban 'heat island effect', physical work, individual differences, and the developing country context where technological fixes are often not applicable. There is also a lack of information on the effects on vulnerable groups such as elderly people and pregnant women. As increasing temperatures reduce work productivity, world economic productivity could be condensed, affecting developing countries in the tropical climate zone disproportionately. Future research is needed taking an interdisciplinary approach, including social, economic, environmental and technical aspects.

Natural selection on thermal performance in a novel thermal environment

PubMed Central

Logan, Michael L.; Cox, Robert M.; Calsbeek, Ryan

2014-01-01

Tropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they are adapted to relatively stable temperature regimes, such that even small increases in environmental temperature may lead to large decreases in physiological performance. One way in which tropical organisms may mitigate the detrimental effects of warming is through evolutionary change in thermal physiology. The speed and magnitude of this response depend, in part, on the strength of climate-driven selection. However, many ectotherms use behavioral adjustments to maintain preferred body temperatures in the face of environmental variation. These behaviors may shelter individuals from natural selection, preventing evolutionary adaptation to changing conditions. Here, we mimic the effects of climate change by experimentally transplanting a population of Anolis sagrei lizards to a novel thermal environment. Transplanted lizards experienced warmer and more thermally variable conditions, which resulted in strong directional selection on thermal performance traits. These same traits were not under selection in a reference population studied in a less thermally stressful environment. Our results indicate that climate change can exert strong natural selection on tropical ectotherms, despite their ability to thermoregulate behaviorally. To the extent that thermal performance traits are heritable, populations may be capable of rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. PMID:25225361

Natural selection on thermal performance in a novel thermal environment.

PubMed

Logan, Michael L; Cox, Robert M; Calsbeek, Ryan

2014-09-30

Tropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they are adapted to relatively stable temperature regimes, such that even small increases in environmental temperature may lead to large decreases in physiological performance. One way in which tropical organisms may mitigate the detrimental effects of warming is through evolutionary change in thermal physiology. The speed and magnitude of this response depend, in part, on the strength of climate-driven selection. However, many ectotherms use behavioral adjustments to maintain preferred body temperatures in the face of environmental variation. These behaviors may shelter individuals from natural selection, preventing evolutionary adaptation to changing conditions. Here, we mimic the effects of climate change by experimentally transplanting a population of Anolis sagrei lizards to a novel thermal environment. Transplanted lizards experienced warmer and more thermally variable conditions, which resulted in strong directional selection on thermal performance traits. These same traits were not under selection in a reference population studied in a less thermally stressful environment. Our results indicate that climate change can exert strong natural selection on tropical ectotherms, despite their ability to thermoregulate behaviorally. To the extent that thermal performance traits are heritable, populations may be capable of rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming.

Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Habib, Rima R; Zein, Kareem El; Ghanawi, Joly

2010-06-01

Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.

Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, A. C.

2016-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to build a modeling framework capable of representing the complexities of agriculture, its dependence on climate, and the many elements of society that depend on food systems. AgMIP's 30+ activities explore the interconnected nature of climate, crop, livestock, economics, food security, and nutrition, using common protocols to systematically evaluate the components of agricultural assessment and allow multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-method analysis of intertwining changes in socioeconomic development, environmental change, and technological adaptation. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) with a particular focus on unforeseen consequences of development strategies, interactions between global and local systems, and the resilience of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. Climate extremes shock the agricultural system through local, direct impacts (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, severe storms) and also through teleconnections propagated through international trade. As the climate changes, the nature of climate extremes affecting agriculture is also likely to change, leading to shifting intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extents of extremes. AgMIP researchers are developing new scenario methodologies to represent near-term extreme droughts in a probabilistic manner, field experiments that impose heat wave conditions on crops, increased resolution to differentiate sub-national drought impacts, new behavioral functions that mimic the response of market actors faced with production shortfalls, analysis of impacts from simultaneous failures of multiple breadbasket regions, and more detailed mapping of food and socioeconomic indicators into food security and nutrition metrics that describe the human impact in diverse populations. Agricultural models illustrate the challenges facing agriculture, allowing resilience planning even as precise prediction of extremes remains difficult. Increased research is necessary to understand hazards, vulnerability, and exposure of populations to characterize the risk of shocks and mechanisms by which unexpected losses drive land-use transitions.

Portfolio effects, climate change, and the persistence of small populations: analyses on the rare plant Saussurea weberi.

PubMed

Abbott, Ronald E; Doak, Daniel F; Peterson, Megan L

2017-04-01

The mechanisms that stabilize small populations in the face of environmental variation are crucial to their long-term persistence. Building from diversity-stability concepts in community ecology, within-population diversity is gaining attention as an important component of population stability. Genetic and microhabitat variation within populations can generate diverse responses to common environmental fluctuations, dampening temporal variability across the population as a whole through portfolio effects. Yet, the potential for portfolio effects to operate at small scales within populations or to change with systematic environmental shifts, such as climate change, remain largely unexplored. We tracked the abundance of a rare alpine perennial plant, Saussurea weberi, in 49 1-m 2 plots within a single population over 20 yr. We estimated among-plot correlations in log annual growth rate to test for population-level synchrony and quantify portfolio effects across the 20-yr study period and also in 5-yr subsets based on June temperature quartiles. Asynchrony among plots, due to different plot-level responses to June temperature, reduced overall fluctuations in abundance and the probability of decline in population models, even when accounting for the effects of density dependence on dynamics. However, plots became more synchronous and portfolio effects decreased during the warmest years of the study, suggesting that future climate warming may erode stabilizing mechanisms in populations of this rare plant. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Methods A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Results The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and geographic terms- such as Balochistan, Low-Intensity Punjab, and Cotton-Wheat Sindh -also happen to be the most deprived regions in Pakistan in terms of socio-economic indicators, suggesting that the government needs to direct its efforts to the socio-economic uplift of these lagging regions to reduce their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. PMID:22938568

Vulnerability of the Metropolitan District of Quito's Water Resources in the face of Climatic and Anthropogenic Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Depsky, N. J.; Flores-Lopez, F.

2014-12-01

Earlier this year the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) concluded a vulnerability analysis for the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ) in Ecuador. Vulnerability assessments were done for five sectors in the region: water resources, public health, agriculture, ecosystems and forest fires. This abstract focuses specifically on the vulnerability of the DMQ's water resources to climatic and anthropogenic uncertainties. This analysis focused on vulnerability of potable water supply for the city of Quito, as well as industrial and agricultural water needs. Current and future vulnerability was assessed in the face of a number of scenarios of climatic and non-climatic uncertainties. The assessment used an integrated water resources model developed by Quito's National Polytechnic University for the surrounding Guayllabamba river basin. The model was built using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software, and encompasses the urban, rural/agricultural, and industrial demands throughout the basin, linking them with existing surface and ground-water supplies. Five future scenarios were constructed in the WEAP basin model out the year 2050 in order to assess their effects: Urban population growth (~70% by 2050). Urban population growth + rising mean air temperatures (~+2°C by 2050). Urban population growth + rising temperatures + drought (recurring 3-year drought cycles built into the projection) Urban population growth + rising temperatures + conversion of 'paramo' alpine tundra ecosystem into cultivated land. (WEAP allows the user to define various types of land cover extent throughout the basin, along with their unique physical characteristics to simulate rainfall-runoff. Conversion of 'paramo' land cover to agriculture was evaluated to see potential effects it may have on the system's hydrology) Urban population growth + rising temperatures + drought + conversion of 'paramos' Coverage of demands in the model was used as the primary vulnerability metric, with urban demands experiencing supply shortages of up to 20-25% under the most stressful scenarios, a shortage which is dampened by significantly increased groundwater pumping. Rural and industrial demands suffer much more severe shortages, with nearly all demands going unmet in a number of scenarios.

Translocation of species, climate change, and the end of trying to recreate past ecological communities.

PubMed

Thomas, Chris D

2011-05-01

Many of the species at greatest risk of extinction from anthropogenic climate change are narrow endemics that face insurmountable dispersal barriers. In this review, I argue that the only viable option to maintain populations of these species in the wild is to translocate them to other locations where the climate is suitable. Risks of extinction to native species in destination areas are small, provided that translocations take place within the same broad geographic region and that the destinations lack local endemics. Biological communities in these areas are in the process of receiving many hundreds of other immigrant species as a result of climate change; ensuring that some of the 'new' inhabitants are climate-endangered species could reduce the net rate of extinction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale

PubMed Central

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-01-01

Background The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. Objective To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. Design The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the ‘Perceived Temperature’ procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. Results The global maps 1971–1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm–humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041–2050 based on the ‘business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. Conclusions This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial. PMID:20052427

Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham's skink, Egernia cunninghami.

PubMed

Ofori, Benjamin Y; Stow, Adam J; Baumgartner, John B; Beaumont, Linda J

2017-01-01

The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming "unlimited" or "no" dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting, but equally plausible, scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now) hot/wet, warm/dry, hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet, at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020-2070) and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23-63% at 1 km and 26-64% at 250 m, by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term, will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular, numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species' range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note, however, that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change.

Perceptions of malaria control and prevention in an era of climate change: a cross-sectional survey among CDC staff in China.

PubMed

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2017-03-31

Though there was the significant decrease in the incidence of malaria in central and southwest China during the 1980s and 1990s, there has been a re-emergence of malaria since 2000. A cross-sectional survey was conducted amongst the staff of eleven Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China to gauge their perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission and its control and prevention. Descriptive analysis was performed to study CDC staff's knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and suggestions for malaria control in the face of climate change. A majority (79.8%) of CDC staff were concerned about climate change and 79.7% believed the weather was becoming warmer. Most participants (90.3%) indicated climate change had a negative effect on population health, 92.6 and 86.8% considered that increasing temperatures and precipitation would influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases including malaria. About half (50.9%) of the surveyed staff indicated malaria had re-emerged in recent years, and some outbreaks were occurring in new geographic areas. The main reasons for such re-emergence were perceived to be: mosquitoes in high-density, numerous imported cases, climate change, poor environmental conditions, internal migrant populations, and lack of health awareness. This study found most CDC staff endorsed the statement that climate change had a negative impact on infectious disease transmission. Malaria had re-emerged in some areas of China, and most of the staff believed that this can be managed. However, high densities of mosquitoes and the continuous increase in imported cases of malaria in local areas, together with environmental changes are bringing about critical challenges to malaria control in China. This study contributes to an understanding of climate change related perceptions of malaria control and prevention amongst CDC staff. It may help to formulate in-house training guidelines, community health promotion programmes and policies to improve the capacity of malaria control and prevention in the face of climate change in China.

Reevaluating the self-thinning boundary line for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests

Treesearch

Jianwei Zhang; William W. Oliver; Robert F. Powers

2013-01-01

The self-thinning rule has been used extensively to predict population dynamics under intraspecific and interspecific competition. In forestry, it is an important silvicultural concept for maintaining stand health in the face of climate change and biotic stress, but uncertainty exists because traditional self-thinning limits were set subjectively without regard to site...

Educational Concerns of Implementing Biosand Water Filters in Rural Uganda

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spowart, Matthew

2012-01-01

The world is facing a shortage of clean drinking water. Current predictions, due to growing population, urbanization, and climate change estimate access to clean water to be further challenged in the coming years. Research has indicated that point of use (POU) technologies are likely to be the most efficient at delivering clean water (water…

Human behavioral contributions to climate change: psychological and contextual drivers.

PubMed

Swim, Janet K; Clayton, Susan; Howard, George S

2011-01-01

We are facing rapid changes in the global climate, and these changes are attributable to human behavior. Humans produce this global impact through our use of natural resources, multiplied by the vast increase in population seen in the past 50 to 100 years. Our goal in this article is to examine the underlying psychosocial causes of human impact, primarily through patterns of reproduction and consumption. We identify and distinguish individual, societal, and behavioral predictors of environmental impact. Relevant research in these areas (as well as areas that would be aided by greater attention by psychologists) are reviewed. We conclude by highlighting ethical issues that emerge when considering how to address human behavioral contributions to climate change.

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

PubMed Central

Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. PMID:29232695

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research.

PubMed

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heberger, M. G.; Cooley, H.; Moore, E.; Garzon, C.

2011-12-01

The western United States faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, and coastal flooding and erosion; changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. For example, mortality rates from Hurricane Audrey, which struck the coast of Louisiana in 1957, were more than eight times higher among blacks than among whites. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by "intervening conditions" that determine the human impact of the flood and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, we analyze the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs, creating a variety of statistics and visualizations to communicate potential impacts to community groups and decision makers, after several meetings with these groups to ask, "What types of information are most useful to you for planning?" We relate climate impacts to social vulnerability - defined as the intersection of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a person or group of people - with a focus on the U.S. state of California. Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response strategies. It is also important to the emerging study of climate justice, which is the concept that no group of people should disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of mitigation and adaptation.

Sex-specific differences of craniofacial traits in Croatia: the impact of environment in a small geographic area.

PubMed

Buretic-Tomljanovic, Alena; Giacometti, Jasminka; Ostojic, Sasa; Kapovic, Miljenko

2007-01-01

Craniometric variation in humans reflects different genetic and environmental influences. Long-term climatic adaptation is less likely to show an impact on size and shape variation in a small local area than at the global level. The aim of this work was to assess the contribution of the particular environmental factors to body height and craniofacial variability in a small geographic area of Croatia. A total of 632 subjects, aged 18-21, participated in the survey. Body height, head length, head breadth, head height, head circumference, cephalic index, morphological face height, face breadth, and facial index were analysed regarding geographic, climatic and dietary conditions in different regions of the country, and correlated with the specific climatic variables (cumulative multiyear sunshine duration, cumulative multiyear average precipitation, multiyear average air temperatures) and calcium concentrations in drinking water. Significant differences between groups classified according to geographic, climatic or dietary affiliation, and the impact of the environmental predictors on the variation in the investigated traits were assessed using multiple forward stepwise regression analyses. Higher body height measures in both sexes were significantly correlated with Mediterranean diet type. Mediterranean diet type also contributed to higher head length and head circumference measures in females. Cephalic index values correlated to geographic regions in both sexes, showing an increase from southern to eastern Croatia. In the same direction, head length significantly decreased in males and head breadth increased in females. Mediterranean climate was associated with higher and narrower faces in females. The analysis of the particular climatic variables did not reveal a significant influence on body height in either sex. Concurrently, climatic features influenced all craniofacial traits in females and only head length and facial index in males. Mediterranean climate, characterized by higher average sunshine duration, higher average precipitation and higher average air temperatures, was associated with longer, higher and narrower skulls, higher head circumference, lower cephalic index, and higher and narrower faces (lower facial index). Calcium concentrations in drinking water did not correlate significantly with any dependent variable. A significant effect of environmental factors on body height and craniofacial variability was found in Croatian young adult population. This effect was more pronounced in females, revealing sex-specific craniofacial differentiation. However, the impact of environment was low and may explain only 1.0-7.32% variation of the investigated traits.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

Climate science and famine early warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, James P.; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel B.; Choularton, R.

2005-01-01

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Climate science and famine early warning.

PubMed

Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

2005-11-29

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Climate science and famine early warning

PubMed Central

Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

2005-01-01

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised. PMID:16433101

How will species respond to climate change? Examining the effects of temperature and population density on an herbivorous insect.

PubMed

Laws, Angela Nardoni; Belovsky, Gary E

2010-04-01

An important challenge facing ecologists is to understand how climate change may affect species performance and species interactions. However, predicting how changes in abiotic variables associated with climate change may affect species performance also depends on the biotic context, which can mediate species responses to climatic change. We conducted a 3-yr field experiment to determine how the herbivorous grasshopper Camnula pellucida (Scudder) responds to manipulations of temperature and population density. Grasshopper survival and fecundity decreased with density, indicating the importance of intraspecific competition. Female fecundity tended to increase with temperature, whereas grasshopper survival exhibited a unimodal response to temperature, with highest survival at intermediate temperatures. Grasshopper performance responses to temperature also depended on density. Peak survival in the low-density treatment occurred in warmer conditions than for the high-density treatment, indicating that the intensity of intraspecific competition varies with temperature. Our data show that changes to the temperature regimen can alter grasshopper performance and determine the intensity of intraspecific competition. However, the effects of temperature on grasshopper performance varied with density. Our data indicate the importance of the biotic context in mediating species responses to climatic factors associated with global change.

Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East.

PubMed

Kaniewski, David; Van Campo, Elise; Weiss, Harvey

2012-03-06

Climate change and water availability in the Middle East are important in understanding human adaptive capacities in the face of long-term environmental changes. The key role of water availability for sedentary and nomad populations in these arid to semiarid landscapes is understood, but the millennium-scale influence of hydrologic instability on vegetation dynamics, human occupation, and historic land use are unknown, which has led to a stochastic view of population responses and adaptive capacities to precipitation anomalies. Within the time-frame of the last two global climate events, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, we report hydrologic instability reconstructed from pollen-derived climate proxies recovered near Tell Leilan, at the Wadi Jarrah in the Khabur Plains of northeastern Syria, at the heart of ancient northern Mesopotamia. By coupling climate proxies with archaeological-historical data and a pollen-based record of agriculture, this integrative study suggests that variability in precipitation is a key factor on crop yields, productivity, and economic systems. It may also have been one of the main parameters controlling human settlement and population migrations at the century to millennial timescales in the arid to semiarid areas of the Middle East. An abrupt shift to drier conditions at ca. AD 1400 is contemporaneous with a change from sedentary village life to regional desertion and nomadization (sheep/camel pastoralists) during the preindustrial era in formerly Ottoman realms, and thereby adds climate change to the multiple causes for Ottoman Empire "decline."

Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East

PubMed Central

Kaniewski, David; Van Campo, Elise; Weiss, Harvey

2012-01-01

Climate change and water availability in the Middle East are important in understanding human adaptive capacities in the face of long-term environmental changes. The key role of water availability for sedentary and nomad populations in these arid to semiarid landscapes is understood, but the millennium-scale influence of hydrologic instability on vegetation dynamics, human occupation, and historic land use are unknown, which has led to a stochastic view of population responses and adaptive capacities to precipitation anomalies. Within the time-frame of the last two global climate events, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, we report hydrologic instability reconstructed from pollen-derived climate proxies recovered near Tell Leilan, at the Wadi Jarrah in the Khabur Plains of northeastern Syria, at the heart of ancient northern Mesopotamia. By coupling climate proxies with archaeological-historical data and a pollen-based record of agriculture, this integrative study suggests that variability in precipitation is a key factor on crop yields, productivity, and economic systems. It may also have been one of the main parameters controlling human settlement and population migrations at the century to millennial timescales in the arid to semiarid areas of the Middle East. An abrupt shift to drier conditions at ca. AD 1400 is contemporaneous with a change from sedentary village life to regional desertion and nomadization (sheep/camel pastoralists) during the preindustrial era in formerly Ottoman realms, and thereby adds climate change to the multiple causes for Ottoman Empire “decline.” PMID:22355126

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, C. L.; Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H. J.; Burton, A.; Dawson, R. J.; Glenis, V.; Manning, L. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2015-09-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days, and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth the median number of drought order occurrences may increase five-fold. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence a portfolio of measures are required.

Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Anderson, Kurt E; Akçakaya, H Resit; Mizerek, Toni; Winchell, Clark; Regan, Helen M

2014-08-01

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Climate impacts on transocean dispersal and habitat in gray whales from the Pleistocene to 2100.

PubMed

Alter, S Elizabeth; Meyer, Matthias; Post, Klaas; Czechowski, Paul; Gravlund, Peter; Gaines, Cork; Rosenbaum, Howard C; Kaschner, Kristin; Turvey, Samuel T; van der Plicht, Johannes; Shapiro, Beth; Hofreiter, Michael

2015-04-01

Arctic animals face dramatic habitat alteration due to ongoing climate change. Understanding how such species have responded to past glacial cycles can help us forecast their response to today's changing climate. Gray whales are among those marine species likely to be strongly affected by Arctic climate change, but a thorough analysis of past climate impacts on this species has been complicated by lack of information about an extinct population in the Atlantic. While little is known about the history of Atlantic gray whales or their relationship to the extant Pacific population, the extirpation of the Atlantic population during historical times has been attributed to whaling. We used a combination of ancient and modern DNA, radiocarbon dating and predictive habitat modelling to better understand the distribution of gray whales during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that dispersal between the Pacific and Atlantic was climate dependent and occurred both during the Pleistocene prior to the last glacial period and the early Holocene immediately following the opening of the Bering Strait. Genetic diversity in the Atlantic declined over an extended interval that predates the period of intensive commercial whaling, indicating this decline may have been precipitated by Holocene climate or other ecological causes. These first genetic data for Atlantic gray whales, particularly when combined with predictive habitat models for the year 2100, suggest that two recent sightings of gray whales in the Atlantic may represent the beginning of the expansion of this species' habitat beyond its currently realized range. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and the health impact of aflatoxins exposure in Portugal - an overview.

PubMed

Assunção, Ricardo; Martins, Carla; Viegas, Susana; Viegas, Carla; Jakobsen, Lea S; Pires, Sara; Alvito, Paula

2018-03-08

Climate change has been indicated as a driver for food safety issues worldwide, mainly due to the impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of food chain. Mycotoxins, natural contaminants produced by fungi, are among the most important of such hazards. Aflatoxins, which have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins, assume particular importance. A recent study predicted aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops in Europe within the next 100 years and aflatoxin B1 is predicted to become a food safety issue in Europe, especially in the most probable scenario of climate change (+2°C). This review discusses the potential influence of climate change on the health risk associated to aflatoxins dietary exposure of Portuguese population. We estimated the burden of disease associated to the current aflatoxin exposure for Portuguese population in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). It is expected that in the future the number of DALYs and the associated cases of hepatocellular carcinoma due to aflatoxins exposure will increase due to climate change. The topics highlighted through this review, including the potential impact on health of the Portuguese population through the dietary exposure to aflatoxins, should represent an alert for the potential consequences of an incompletely explored perspective of climate change. Politics and decision-makers should be involved and committed to implement effective measures to deal with climate change issues and to reduce its possible consequences. This review constitutes a contribution for the prioritisation of strategies to face the unequal burden of effects of weather-related hazards in Portugal and across Europe.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Variation in genetic structure and gene flow across the range of Sequoiadendron giganteum (giant sequoia)

Treesearch

Rainbow DeSilva; Richard S. Dodd

2017-01-01

During this century, climate warming and altered precipitation patterns will lead to habitat changes that may be beneficial to some long-lived tree species and detrimental to others. Paleoendemics, with limited and disjunct distributions will face the greatest challenges, as migration rates will be too slow to keep pace with rapid environmental change and populations...

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J; Roberts, David R; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site's future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change. PMID:26466364

Enhancing Communication of Climate Impacts Assessments: Examples of Local Stories, Animations and Video.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzpatrick, M. F.; Grigholm, B. O.

2014-12-01

Comprehensive climate impacts assessments are important vehicles for conveying salient information to the public and policy makers. However, over the last few decades communication of this important information has been hampered for a number of reasons. Firstly, we have a rapidly changing social media landscape, where there are fewer opportunities for in-depth treatment of issues. To compete in this arena, climate information needs to be packaged in sound bites, and much of the nuance and complexity may be lost. Secondly, scientific literacy among the general U.S. population is not particularly high, which creates a barrier to understanding and limits the audiences that can be reached. Thirdly, climate science has been undermined by misinformation over many years often funded by fossil fuel interests. While this latter obstacle is clearly diminishing - largely in the face of evidence from the undeniable climate impacts that are already being seen by communities - there has been much confusion generated to date. Despite the fact that 97% of active climate scientists agree that the planet is warming as a result of human greenhouse gas emission, only 42% of the U.S. population agrees (Pew Research, 2013). In the face of these challenges, much of the work that the Union of Concerned Scientists does to translate climate impacts assessments has shifted to visuals, animations, and videos that people can relate to and connect with more readily. In this session we will share some of the general design features, discuss target audiences, and outline production limitations of several local stories involving videos and animations, as well as present some recent infographics. One example of this work are case studies that focus on sea level rise and involve a local personality who can speak to climate impacts at the community level. We understand the power of visual images and stories in creating messages that stick, and we use this in designing animations that explain the technical findings of climate impacts assessments. We aim to provide the public and policy makers with accessible information to encourage responsible choices regarding both mitigation and adaptation choices to deal with climate change.All of our material is freely available for use from our website - www.ucsusa.org.

Phosphorus acquisition and utilisation in crop legumes under global change.

PubMed

Pang, Jiayin; Ryan, Megan H; Lambers, Hans; Siddique, Kadambot Hm

2018-05-28

Improving phosphorus (P)-use efficiency in legumes is a worldwide challenge in the face of an increasing world population, dwindling global rock phosphate reserves, the relatively high P demand of legumes and global change. This review focuses on P acquisition of crop legumes in response to climate change. We advocate further studies on: firstly, the response of carboxylate exudation, mycorrhizas and root morphology to climate change and their role in P acquisition as dependent on edaphic factors; secondly, developing intercropping systems with a combination of a legume and another crop species to enhance P acquisition; and thirdly, the impact of the interactions of the major climate change factors on P acquisition in the field. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts on human exposures to air pollution ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is an abstract for a presentations at the Annual Conference of the International Society on Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology. This presentation will serve as an introduction to the symposium. As we consider the potential health impacts of a warming planet, the relationships between climate change and air pollutants become increasingly important to understand. These relationships are complex and highly variable, causing a variety of environmental impacts at local, regional and global scales. Human exposures and health impacts for air pollutants have the potential to be altered by changes in climate through multiple factors that drive population exposures to these pollutants. Research on this topic will provide both state and local governments with the tools and scientific knowledge base to undertake any necessary adaptation of the air pollution regulations and/or public health management systems in the face of climate change.

Climate change-induced heat risks for migrant populations working at brick kilns in India: a transdisciplinary approach.

PubMed

Lundgren-Kownacki, Karin; Kjellberg, Siri M; Gooch, Pernille; Dabaieh, Marwa; Anandh, Latha; Venugopal, Vidhya

2018-03-01

During the summer of 2015, India was hit by a scorching heat wave that melted pavements in Delhi and caused thousands of deaths, mainly among the most marginalized populations. One such group facing growing heat risks from both occupational and meteorological causes are migrant brick kiln workers. This study evaluates both current heat risks and the potential future impacts of heat caused by climate change, for the people working at brick kilns in India. A case study of heat stress faced by people working at brick kilns near Chennai, India, is the anchor point around which a transdisciplinary approach was applied. Around Chennai, the situation is alarming since occupational heat exposure in the hot season from March to July is already at the upper limits of what humans can tolerate before risking serious impairment. The aim of the study was to identify new pathways for change and soft solutions by both reframing the problem and expanding the solution space being considered in order to improve the quality of life for the migrant populations at the brick kilns. Technical solutions evaluated include the use of sun-dried mud bricks and other locally "appropriate technologies" that could mitigate the worsening of climate change-induced heat. Socio-cultural solutions discussed for empowering the people who work at the brick kilns include participatory approaches such as open re-localization, and rights-based approaches including the environmental sustainability and the human rights-based approach framework. Our analysis suggests that an integrative, transdisciplinary approach could incorporate a more holistic range of technical and socio-culturally informed solutions in order to protect the health of people threatened by India's brick kiln industry.

Climate change-induced heat risks for migrant populations working at brick kilns in India: a transdisciplinary approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundgren-Kownacki, Karin; Kjellberg, Siri M.; Gooch, Pernille; Dabaieh, Marwa; Anandh, Latha; Venugopal, Vidhya

2018-03-01

During the summer of 2015, India was hit by a scorching heat wave that melted pavements in Delhi and caused thousands of deaths, mainly among the most marginalized populations. One such group facing growing heat risks from both occupational and meteorological causes are migrant brick kiln workers. This study evaluates both current heat risks and the potential future impacts of heat caused by climate change, for the people working at brick kilns in India. A case study of heat stress faced by people working at brick kilns near Chennai, India, is the anchor point around which a transdisciplinary approach was applied. Around Chennai, the situation is alarming since occupational heat exposure in the hot season from March to July is already at the upper limits of what humans can tolerate before risking serious impairment. The aim of the study was to identify new pathways for change and soft solutions by both reframing the problem and expanding the solution space being considered in order to improve the quality of life for the migrant populations at the brick kilns. Technical solutions evaluated include the use of sun-dried mud bricks and other locally "appropriate technologies" that could mitigate the worsening of climate change-induced heat. Socio-cultural solutions discussed for empowering the people who work at the brick kilns include participatory approaches such as open re-localization, and rights-based approaches including the environmental sustainability and the human rights-based approach framework. Our analysis suggests that an integrative, transdisciplinary approach could incorporate a more holistic range of technical and socio-culturally informed solutions in order to protect the health of people threatened by India's brick kiln industry.

Low migratory connectivity is common in long-distance migrant birds.

PubMed

Finch, Tom; Butler, Simon J; Franco, Aldina M A; Cresswell, Will

2017-05-01

Estimating how much long-distance migrant populations spread out and mix during the non-breeding season (migratory connectivity) is essential for understanding and predicting population dynamics in the face of global change. We quantify variation in population spread and inter-population mixing in long-distance, terrestrial migrant land-bird populations (712 individuals from 98 populations of 45 species, from tagging studies in the Neotropic and Afro-Palearctic flyways). We evaluate the Mantel test as a metric of migratory connectivity, and explore the extent to which variance in population spread can be explained simply by geography. The mean distance between two individuals from the same population during the non-breeding season was 743 km, covering 10-20% of the maximum width of Africa/South America. Individuals from different breeding populations tended to mix during the non-breeding season, although spatial segregation was maintained in species with relatively large non-breeding ranges (and, to a lesser extent, those with low population-level spread). A substantial amount of between-population variation in population spread was predicted simply by geography, with populations using non-breeding zones with limited land availability (e.g. Central America compared to South America) showing lower population spread. The high levels of population spread suggest that deterministic migration tactics are not generally adaptive; this makes sense in the context of the recent evolution of the systems, and the spatial and temporal unpredictability of non-breeding habitat. The conservation implications of generally low connectivity are that the loss (or protection) of any non-breeding site will have a diffuse but widespread effect on many breeding populations. Although low connectivity should engender population resilience to shifts in habitat (e.g. due to climate change), we suggest it may increase susceptibility to habitat loss. We hypothesize that, because a migrant species cannot adapt to both simultaneously, migrants generally may be more susceptible to population declines in the face of concurrent anthropogenic habitat and climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Food security in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pulwarty, Roger; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James

2012-01-01

By 2080 the effects of climate change—on heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and drought—could push an additional 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion. The precise impacts will, however, strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions such as local markets and food import dependence. In the near term, two factors are also changing the nature of food security: (1) rapid urbanization, with the proportion of the global population living in urban areas expanding from 13 percent in 1975 to greater than 50 percent at present, and (2) trade and domestic market liberalization since 1993, which has promoted removal of import controls, deregulation of prices, and the loss of preferential markets for many small economies. Over the last two years, the worst drought in decades has devastated eastern Africa. The resulting food-security crisis has affected roughly 13 million people and has reminded us that there is still a long way to go in addressing current climate-related risks. In the face of such profound changes and uncertainties, our approaches to food security must evolve. In this article, we describe four key elements that, in our view, will be essential to the success of efforts to address the linked challenges of food security and climate change.

Impacts of Change in Irrigation Water Availability on Food Production in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Y. Y.; Tang, Q.

2014-12-01

Approximately 9 percent of China's population and 17 percent of its agricultural area are settled in the Yellow River Basins. Irrigation, which plays an important role in agricultural production, occupies the largest share of human consumptive water use in the basin. Given increasing water demands, the basin faces acute water scarcity. Previous studies have suggested that decrease in irrigation water availability under climate change might have an overall adverse impact on the food production of the basin. The timing and area that would face severe water stress are yet to be identified. We used a land surface hydrological model forced with the bias-corrected climatic variables from 5 climate models under 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to estimate total water availability in the sub-basins of the Yellow River basin. The future socioeconomic conditions, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were used to estimate the water requirement in the nonagricultural water use sectors. The irrigation water availability was estimated from the total water availability and nonagricultural water use, and the irrigation water demands were estimated based on the current irrigation project efficiencies. The timing and area of irrigation water shortage were shown and the implication of change in irrigation water availability on food production was assessed. The results show that the sub-basins with high population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are likely to confront severe water stress and reduction in food production earlier because irrigation water was to be appropriated by the rapid increase in nonagricultural water use sectors. The study stresses the need for adaptive management of water to balance agriculture and nonagricultural demands in northern China.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for

Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations.

PubMed

Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Ø; Sandanger, Torkjel M

2011-01-01

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed specifically considering their exposure and sensitivity to long range transported contaminants. Considering that the different parts of pregnancy are particularly sensitive time periods for the effects of environmental exposure, this review focuses on the impacts on maternal and newborn health. Environmental stressors known to affects human health and how these will change with the predicted climate change are addressed. Air pollution and food security are crucial issues for the pregnant population in a changing climate, especially indoor climate and food security in Arctic areas. The total number of environmental factors is today responsible for a large number of the global deaths, especially in young children. Climate change will most likely lead to an increase in this number. Exposure to the different environmental stressors especially air pollution will in most parts of the world increase with climate change, even though some areas might face lower exposure. Populations at risk today are believed to be most heavily affected. As for the persistent organic pollutants a warming climate leads to a remobilisation and a possible increase in food chain exposure in the Arctic and thus increased risk for Arctic populations. This is especially the case for mercury. The perspective for the next generations will be closely connected to the expected temperature changes; changes in housing conditions; changes in exposure patterns; predicted increased exposure to Mercury because of increased emissions and increased biological availability. A number of environmental stressors are predicted to increase with climate change and increasingly affecting human health. Efforts should be put on reducing risk for the next generation, thus global politics and research effort should focus on maternal and newborn health.

Effects of Team Climate on Substance Use Behaviors, Perceptions, and Attitudes of Student-Athletes at a Large, Public University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tomon, Jennifer E.; Ting, S. Raymond

2010-01-01

College student-athletes comprise a special group on the college campus owing to their dual roles as students and athletes. Although many positives are associated with being a student-athlete, researchers have found that this population is faced with unique academic, physical, and social stressors that put student-athletes at greater risk for…

Population, Migration, and Arctic Community Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, L.; Wirsing, J.

2017-12-01

North American Arctic communities commonly show decadal trends in population growth, driven by natural increase but variably offset by net migration with year-to-year volatility. Migration rates themselves can be a social indicator, integrating a range of push and pull factors. Population and population change of Arctic communities are basic scale properties affecting the resources needed to achieve sustainability, and the adaptations that may be required for climate change (such as relocation from flood-threatened locations). We examine interannual changes 1990-2016 in population and net migration of 43 Alaska Arctic communities, some facing serious threats of flooding. Our Alaska analysis updates previous work with additional years of data. We also extend this demographic analysis for the first time to 25 towns and villages of Nunavut, Canada.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

PubMed

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Impacts of Water Quality and Food Availability on Children's Health in West Africa: A Spatial Analysis Using Remotely Sensed Data and Small-Scale Water Quality Data and Country-level Health Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, L.; Grace, K.; Lloyd, B.

2014-12-01

As the global climate changes and the populations of many African countries grow, ensuring clean drinking water and food has become a pressing concern. Because of their vulnerability to malnutrition and food insecurity, children face the greatest risk for adverse health outcomes related to climate change. Vulnerability, however, is highly variable, with some children in food insecure communities showing healthy growth, while some children in food secure communities show signs of malnutrition. In West Africa, Burkina Faso faces high levels of child malnutrition, loses to farmland and a large share of the population have no access to clean water. Because the overwhelming majority of children rely on locally grown, rainfed agriculture and well/surface water, the combined impact of climate change and population growth decreases water availability and farmland per person. However, there is notable community and individual variation in malnutrition levels suggesting that there are important coping strategies that vulnerable families may use to secure their children's health. No spatially relevant analysis of water and food insecurity and children's health exists for Burkina Faso. The goal of this research is to identify and quantify the combined and inter-related impact of unsafe drinking water and community-level food availability on the physical health outcomes of Burkinabe children under five years of age. To accomplish this goal we rely on a publically available highly detailed, geo-referenced data set (Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)) to provide information on measures of childhood malnutrition and details on parental characteristics related to children's health. Information on water source (covered/uncovered well, piped water, etc.) and water quality (measures of arsenic and pollution) comes from DHS along with a recently collected geo-referenced US Agency for International Development (USAID) data set. Critical information on food production, environmental characteristics and population density come from high resolution remotely sensed data.

The Impacts of Water Quality and Food Availability on Children's Health in West Africa: A Spatial Analysis Using Remotely Sensed Data and Small-Scale Water Quality Data and Country-level Health Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, L.; Grace, K.; Lloyd, B.

2015-12-01

As the global climate changes and the populations of many African countries grow, ensuring clean drinking water and food has become a pressing concern. Because of their vulnerability to malnutrition and food insecurity, children face the greatest risk for adverse health outcomes related to climate change. Vulnerability, however, is highly variable, with some children in food insecure communities showing healthy growth, while some children in food secure communities show signs of malnutrition. In West Africa, Burkina Faso faces high levels of child malnutrition, loses to farmland and a large share of the population have no access to clean water. Because the overwhelming majority of children rely on locally grown, rainfed agriculture and well/surface water, the combined impact of climate change and population growth decreases water availability and farmland per person. However, there is notable community and individual variation in malnutrition levels suggesting that there are important coping strategies that vulnerable families may use to secure their children's health. No spatially relevant analysis of water and food insecurity and children's health exists for Burkina Faso. The goal of this research is to identify and quantify the combined and inter-related impact of unsafe drinking water and community-level food availability on the physical health outcomes of Burkinabe children under five years of age. To accomplish this goal we rely on a publically available highly detailed, geo-referenced data set (Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)) to provide information on measures of childhood malnutrition and details on parental characteristics related to children's health. Information on water source (covered/uncovered well, piped water, etc.) and water quality (measures of arsenic and pollution) comes from DHS along with a recently collected geo-referenced US Agency for International Development (USAID) data set. Critical information on food production, environmental characteristics and population density come from high resolution remotely sensed data.

Urban Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Europe: A Case Study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart

2014-05-01

Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves. For example, the summer 2003 European heat wave caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. As around 75% of Europe's population resides in urban areas, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of seasonal to decadal-scale climate variability on urban areas and their populations. This study aims at downscaling the spatially coarse resolution CMIP5 climate predictions to the local urban scale and investigating the relation between heat waves and the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect). The resulting heat stress effect is not only driven by climatic variables but also impacted by urban morphology. Moreover, the exposure varies significantly with the geographical location. All this information is coupled with relevant socio-economic datasets such as population density, age structure, etc. focussing on human health. The analyses are conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (BE), Berlin (DE) and Almada (PT) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. The end-user needs have been consolidated in a climate services plan including the production of heat risk exposure maps and the analysis of various scenarios considering e.g. the uncertainty of the global climate predictions, urban expansion over time and the impact of mitigation measures such as green roofs. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for the design and management of climate resilient cities.

Plasticity and stress tolerance override local adaptation in the responses of Mediterranean holm oak seedlings to drought and cold.

PubMed

Gimeno, Teresa E; Pías, Beatriz; Lemos-Filho, José P; Valladares, Fernando

2009-01-01

Plant populations of widely distributed species experience a broad range of environmental conditions that can be faced by phenotypic plasticity or ecotypic differentiation and local adaptation. The strategy chosen will determine a population's ability to respond to climate change. To explore this, we grew Quercus ilex (L.) seedlings from acorns collected at six selected populations from climatically contrasting localities and evaluated their response to drought and late season cold events. Maximum photosynthetic rate (A(max)), instantaneous water use efficiency (iWUE), and thermal tolerance to freeze and heat (estimated from chlorophyll fluorescence versus temperature curves) were measured in 5-month-old seedlings in control (no stress), drought (water-stressed), and cold (low suboptimal temperature) conditions. The observed responses were similar for the six populations: drought decreased A(max) and increased iWUE, and cold reduced A(max) and iWUE. All the seedlings maintained photosynthetic activity under adverse conditions (drought and cold), and rapidly increased their iWUE by closing stomata when exposed to drought. Heat and freeze tolerances were similarly high for seedlings from all the populations, and they were significantly increased by drought and cold, respectively; and were positively related to each other. Differences in seedling performance across populations were primarily induced by maternal effects mediated by seed size and to a lesser extent by idiosyncratic physiologic responses to drought and low temperatures. Tolerance to multiple stresses together with the capacity to physiologically acclimate to heat waves and cold snaps may allow Q. ilex to cope with the increasingly stressful conditions imposed by climate change. Lack of evidence of physiologic seedling adaptation to local climate may reflect opposing selection pressures to complex, multidimensional environmental conditions operating within the distribution range of this species.

Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham’s skink, Egernia cunninghami

PubMed Central

Stow, Adam J.; Baumgartner, John B.; Beaumont, Linda J.

2017-01-01

The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming “unlimited” or “no” dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham’s skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting, but equally plausible, scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now) hot/wet, warm/dry, hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet, at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020–2070) and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23–63% at 1 km and 26–64% at 250 m, by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term, will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular, numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species’ range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note, however, that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change. PMID:28873398

Facing the Heat: Thermoregulation and Behaviour of Lowland Species of a Cold-Dwelling Butterfly Genus, Erebia

PubMed Central

Kleckova, Irena; Klecka, Jan

2016-01-01

Understanding the potential of animals to immediately respond to changing temperatures is imperative for predicting the effects of climate change on biodiversity. Ectothermic animals, such as insects, use behavioural thermoregulation to keep their body temperature within suitable limits. It may be particularly important at warm margins of species occurrence, where populations are sensitive to increasing air temperatures. In the field, we studied thermal requirements and behavioural thermoregulation in low-altitude populations of the Satyrinae butterflies Erebia aethiops, E. euryale and E. medusa. We compared the relationship of individual body temperature with air and microhabitat temperatures for the low-altitude Erebia species to our data on seven mountain species, including a high-altitude population of E. euryale, studied in the Alps. We found that the grassland butterfly E. medusa was well adapted to the warm lowland climate and it was active under the highest air temperatures and kept the highest body temperature of all species. Contrarily, the woodland species, E. aethiops and a low-altitude population of E. euryale, kept lower body temperatures and did not search for warm microclimates as much as other species. Furthermore, temperature-dependence of daily activities also differed between the three low-altitude and the mountain species. Lastly, the different responses to ambient temperature between the low- and high-altitude populations of E. euryale suggest possible local adaptations to different climates. We highlight the importance of habitat heterogeneity for long-term species survival, because it is expected to buffer climate change consequences by providing a variety of microclimates, which can be actively explored by adults. Alpine species can take advantage of warm microclimates, while low-altitude grassland species may retreat to colder microhabitats to escape heat, if needed. However, we conclude that lowland populations of woodland species may be more severely threatened by climate warming because of the unavailability of relatively colder microclimates. PMID:27008409

Arctic-nesting birds find physiological relief in the face of trophic constraints.

PubMed

McKinnon, Laura; Nol, Erica; Juillet, Cédric

2013-01-01

A climate-induced phenological mismatch between the timing of reproduction and the timing of food resource peaks is one of the key hypothesized effects of climate change on wildlife. Though supported as a mechanism of population decline in birds, few studies have investigated whether the same temperature increases that drive this mismatch have the potential to decrease energetic costs of growth and compensate for the potential negative effects of reduced food availability. We generated independent indices of climate and resource availability and quantified their effects on growth of Dunlin (Calidris alpina) chicks, in the sub-arctic tundra of Churchill, Manitoba during the summers of 2010-2011 and found that when resource availability was below average, above average growth could be maintained in the presence of increasing temperatures. These results provide evidence that chicks may find physiological relief from the trophic constraints hypothesized by climate change studies.

Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

PubMed

Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

2010-12-01

Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EPA's Sustainable Port Communities: Anticipating Changes in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Port Communities Face Many Challenges: • Climate change – Sea Level Rise, Extreme Events: “Assets” become Vulnerabilities; Nuisance flooding; Changes in waste water and stormwater capacity; Changes in near-shore ecology and water quality • Port Expansion: Increasing multi-modal cargo transport, bigger ships; Energy use, transport; Invasive species; Homeland security; Increased development pressure (land use); Population growth • EJ Communities: Hazardous waste, cargo; Changes in emissions (amount, type, distribution) Changes in demographics, real estate values Disproportionately impacted by climate change • Competing Economic Interests Tourism and historical resources Protection of ecosystem services To make other federal agencies involved in resilience research aware of our study and to solicit collaboration.

A History of Sandia’s Water Decision Modeling and Analysis Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Pate, Ronald C.

This document provides a brief narrative, and selected project descriptions, that represent Sandia’s history involving data, modeling, and analysis related to water, energy-water nexus, and energy-water-agriculture nexus within the context of climate change. Sandia National Laboratories has been engaged since the early-1990s with program development involving data, modeling, and analysis projects that address the interdependent issues, risks, and technology-based mitigations associated with increasing demands and stresses being placed on energy, water, and agricultural/food resources, and the related impacts on their security and sustainability in the face of both domestic and global population growth, expanding economic development, and climate change.

Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

2014-12-01

Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

Climate change, renewable energy and population impact on future energy demand for Burkina Faso build environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouedraogo, B. I.

This research addresses the dual challenge faced by Burkina Faso engineers to design sustainable low-energy cost public buildings and domestic dwellings while still providing the required thermal comfort under warmer temperature conditions caused by climate change. It was found base don climate change SRES scenario A2 that predicted mean temperature in Burkina Faso will increase by 2oC between 2010 and 2050. Therefore, in order to maintain a thermally comfortable 25oC inside public buildings, the projected annual energy consumption for cooling load will increase by 15%, 36% and 100% respectively for the period between 2020 to 2039, 2040 to 2059 and 2070 to 2089 when compared to the control case. It has also been found that a 1% increase in population growth will result in a 1.38% and 2.03% increase in carbon emission from primary energy consumption and future electricity consumption respectively. Furthermore, this research has investigated possible solutions for adaptation to the severe climate change and population growth impact on energy demand in Burkina Faso. Shading devices could potentially reduce the cooling load by up to 40%. Computer simulation programming of building energy consumption and a field study has shown that adobe houses have the potential of significantly reducing energy demand for cooling and offer a formidable method for climate change adaptation. Based on the Net Present Cost, hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and Diesel generator energy production configuration is the most cost effective local electricity supply system, for areas without electricity at present, with a payback time of 8 years when compared to diesel generator stand-alone configuration. It is therefore a viable solution to increase electricity access to the majority of the population.

Plastic responses to elevated temperature in low and high elevation populations of three grassland species.

PubMed

Frei, Esther R; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Pluess, Andrea R

2014-01-01

Local persistence of plant species in the face of climate change is largely mediated by genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity. In species with a wide altitudinal range, population responses to global warming are likely to differ at contrasting elevations. In controlled climate chambers, we investigated the responses of low and high elevation populations (1200 and 1800 m a.s.l.) of three nutrient-poor grassland species, Trifolium montanum, Ranunculus bulbosus, and Briza media, to ambient and elevated temperature. We measured growth-related, reproductive and phenological traits, evaluated differences in trait plasticity and examined whether trait values or plasticities were positively related to approximate fitness and thus under selection. Elevated temperature induced plastic responses in several growth-related traits of all three species. Although flowering phenology was advanced in T. montanum and R. bulbosus, number of flowers and reproductive allocation were not increased under elevated temperature. Plasticity differed between low and high elevation populations only in leaf traits of T. montanum and B. media. Some growth-related and phenological traits were under selection. Moreover, plasticities were not correlated with approximate fitness indicating selectively neutral plastic responses to elevated temperature. The observed plasticity in growth-related and phenological traits, albeit variable among species, suggests that plasticity is an important mechanism in mediating plant responses to elevated temperature. However, the capacity of species to respond to climate change through phenotypic plasticity is limited suggesting that the species additionally need evolutionary adaptation to adjust to climate change. The observed selection on several growth-related and phenological traits indicates that the study species have the potential for future evolution in the context of a warming climate.

Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Serra-Varela, María Jesús; Alía, Ricardo; Pórtoles, Javier; Gonzalo, Julián; Soliño, Mario; Grivet, Delphine; Raposo, Rosa

2017-01-01

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen's (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host's risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations.

Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change

PubMed Central

Serra-Varela, María Jesús; Alía, Ricardo; Pórtoles, Javier; Gonzalo, Julián; Soliño, Mario; Grivet, Delphine; Raposo, Rosa

2017-01-01

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen’s (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host’s risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations. PMID:28192454

Climate Change Professional Development: Design, Implementation, and Initial Outcomes on Teacher Learning, Practice, and Student Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shea, Nicole A.; Mouza, Chrystalla; Drewes, Andrea

2016-01-01

In this work, we present the design, implementation, and initial outcomes of the Climate Academy, a hybrid professional development program delivered through a combination of face-to-face and online interactions, intended to prepare formal and informal science teachers (grades 5-16) in teaching about climate change. The Climate Academy was…

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Claire L.; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.; Burton, Aidan; Dawson, Richard J.; Glenis, Vassilis; Manning, Lucy J.; Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Kilsby, Chris G.

2016-05-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth, and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local-scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames Basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth, the median number of drought order occurrences may increase 5-fold by the 2050s. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. A decrease in per capita demand of 3.75 % reduces the median frequency of drought order measures by 50 % by the 2020s. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence, a portfolio of measures is required.

Moderate climate signature in cranial anatomy of late holocene human populations from Southern South America.

PubMed

Paula Menéndez, Lumila

2018-02-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the association between cranial variation and climate in order to discuss their role during the diversification of southern South American populations. Therefore, the specific objectives are: (1) to explore the spatial pattern of cranial variation with regard to the climatic diversity of the region, and (2) to evaluate the differential impact that the climatic factors may have had on the shape and size of the diverse cranial structures studied. The variation in shape and size of 361 crania was studied, registering 62 3D landmarks that capture shape and size variation in the face, cranial vault, and base. Mean, minimum, and maximum annual temperature, as well as mean annual precipitation, but also diet and altitude, were matched for each population sample. A PCA, as well as spatial statistical techniques, including kriging, regression, and multimodel inference were employed. The facial skeleton size presents a latitudinal pattern which is partially associated with temperature diversity. Both diet and altitude are the variables that mainly explain the skull shape variation, although mean annual temperature also plays a role. The association between climate factors and cranial variation is low to moderate, mean annual temperature explains almost 40% of the entire skull, facial skeleton and cranial vault shape variation, while annual precipitation and minimum annual temperature only contribute to the morphological variation when considered together with maximum annual temperature. The cranial base is the structure less associated with climate diversity. These results suggest that climate factors may have had a partial impact on the facial and vault shape, and therefore contributed moderately to the diversification of southern South American populations, while diet and altitude might have had a stronger impact. Therefore, cranial variation at the southern cone has been shaped both by random and nonrandom factors. Particularly, the influence of climate on skull shape has probably been the result of directional selection. This study supports that, although cranial vault is the cranial structure more associated to mean annual temperature, the impact of climate signature on morphology decreases when populations from extreme cold environments are excluded from the analysis. Additionally, it shows that the extent of the geographical scales analyzed, as well as differential sampling may lead to different results regarding the role of ecological factors and evolutionary processes on cranial morphology. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming.

PubMed

Cotto, Olivier; Wessely, Johannes; Georges, Damien; Klonner, Günther; Schmid, Max; Dullinger, Stefan; Thuiller, Wilfried; Guillaume, Frédéric

2017-05-05

Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the most abundant species. Monitoring of species' local abundance rather than their range may likely better inform on species' extinction risks under climate change.

A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutherland, William J.; Alves, José A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

2012-01-01

We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

Global bioethics: a suggested distinction between ethics and morality.

PubMed

Chiarelli, B

2000-01-01

At the beginning of the new century Humankind is facing a new Era. It has to face the effects of a dramatic and accelerated population growth. Human population size increased from one billion in 1835, to six billion by the end of this century. This unprecedented increase in number, affecting specific geographical areas, has augmented the deterioration of the natural environment caused by the misuse of natural resources and the depletion of fertile soils due to climatic changes and pollution. The quality of life is now diminished by the "greenhouse effect" which is the direct result of industrialisation. Ecological integrity is a concept that has to be advanced in order to facilitate the protection of biological and ecological resources against the threat of human survival. Global Bioethics as a discipline of interaction of health professionals with the present endangered environment, the limited global resources and the new biotechnologies is needed in any Biomedical School.

Climate Change and Children: Health Risks of Abatement Inaction, Health Gains from Action.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2014-08-14

As human-driven climate change advances, many adults fret about the losses of livelihoods, houses and farms that may result. Children fret about their parents' worries and about information they hear, but do not really understand about the world's climate and perhaps about their own futures. In chronically worried or anxious children, blood cortisol levels rise and adverse changes accrue in various organ systems that prefigure adult-life diseases. Meanwhile, for many millions of children in poor countries who hear little news and live with day-to-day fatalism, climate change threatens the fundamentals of life-food sufficiency, safe drinking water and physical security-and heightens the risks of diarrhoeal disease, malaria and other climate-sensitive infections. Poor and disadvantaged populations, and especially their children, will bear the brunt of climate-related trauma, disease and premature death over the next few decades and, less directly, from social disruption, impoverishment and displacement. The recent droughts in Somalia as the Indian Ocean warmed and monsoonal rains failed, on top of chronic civil war, forced hundreds of thousands of Somali families into north-eastern Kenya's vast Dadaab refugee camps, where, for children, shortages of food, water, hygiene and schooling has endangered physical, emotional and mental health. Children warrant special concern, both as children per se and as the coming generation likely to face ever more extreme climate conditions later this century. As children, they face diverse risks, from violent weather, proliferating aeroallergens, heat extremes and mobilised microbes, through to reduced recreational facilities, chronic anxieties about the future and health hazards of displacement and local resource conflict. Many will come to regard their parents' generation and complacency as culpable.

Ice age fish in a warming world: minimal variation in thermal acclimation capacity among lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) populations

PubMed Central

Kelly, Nicholas I.; Burness, Gary; McDermid, Jenni L.; Wilson, Chris C.

2014-01-01

In the face of climate change, the persistence of cold-adapted species will depend on their adaptive capacity for physiological traits within and among populations. The lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) is a cold-adapted salmonid and a relict from the last ice age that is well suited as a model species for studying the predicted effects of climate change on coldwater fishes. We investigated the thermal acclimation capacity of upper temperature resistance and metabolism of lake trout from four populations across four acclimation temperatures. Individuals were reared from egg fertilization onward in a common environment and, at 2 years of age, were acclimated to 8, 11, 15 or 19°C. Although one population had a slightly higher maximal metabolic rate (MMR), higher metabolic scope for activity and faster metabolic recovery across all temperatures, there was no interpopulation variation for critical thermal maximum (CTM) or routine metabolic rate (RMR) or for the thermal acclimation capacity of CTM, RMR, MMR or metabolic scope. Across the four acclimation temperatures, there was a 3°C maximal increase in CTM and 3-fold increase in RMR for all populations. Above 15°C, a decline in MMR and increase in RMR resulted in sharply reduced metabolic scope for all populations acclimated at 19°C. Together, these data suggest there is limited variation among lake trout populations in thermal physiology or capacity for thermal acclimatization, and that climate change may impact lake trout populations in a similar manner across a wide geographical range. Understanding the effect of elevated temperatures on the thermal physiology of this economically and ecologically important cold-adapted species will help inform management and conservation strategies for the long-term sustainability of lake trout populations. PMID:27293646

Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Murray, Michael W.; Kao, Yu-Chun; Feiner, Zachary S.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Höök, Tomas O.; Ludsin, Stuart A.

2017-01-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.

Risk and efficacy of human-enabled interspecific hybridization for climate-change adaptation: Response to Hamilton and Miller (2016)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kovach, Ryan P.; Luikart, Gordon; Lowe, Winsor H.; Boyer, Matthew C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2016-01-01

Hamilton and Miller (2016) provide an interesting and provocative discussion of how hybridization and introgression can promote evolutionary potential in the face of climate change. They argue that hybridization—mating between individuals from genetically distinct populations—can alleviate inbreeding depression and promote adaptive introgression and evolutionary rescue. We agree that deliberate intraspecific hybridization (mating between individuals of the same species) is an underused management tool for increasing fitness in inbred populations (i.e., genetic rescue; Frankham 2015; Whiteley et al. 2015). The potential risks and benefits of assisted gene flow have been discussed in the literature, and an emerging consensus suggests that mating between populations isolated for approximately 50–100 generations can benefit fitness, often with a minor risk of outbreeding depression (Frankham et al. 2011; Aitken & Whitlock 2013; Allendorf et al. 2013).

Distant storms as drivers of environmental change at Pacific atolls.

PubMed

Gardner, Jonathan P A; Garton, David W; Collen, John D; Zwartz, Daniel

2014-01-01

The central Pacific Ocean with its many low lying islands and atolls is under threat from sea level rise and increased storm activity. Here, we illustrate how increasing frequency and severity of large scale storm events associated with global climate change may be particularly profound at the local scale for human populations that rely on lagoon systems for provision of a variety of goods and services. In August 2011 a storm originating in the Southern Ocean caused a large amplitude ocean swell to move northward through the Pacific Ocean. Its arrival at Palmyra Atoll coincided with transient elevated sea surface height and triggered turnover of the lagoon water column. This storm-induced change to the lagoon reflects long distance connectivity with propagated wave energy from the Southern Ocean and illustrates the increasing threats generated by climate change that are faced by human populations on most low-lying Pacific islands and atolls.

Distant Storms as Drivers of Environmental Change at Pacific Atolls

PubMed Central

Gardner, Jonathan P. A.; Garton, David W.; Collen, John D.; Zwartz, Daniel

2014-01-01

The central Pacific Ocean with its many low lying islands and atolls is under threat from sea level rise and increased storm activity. Here, we illustrate how increasing frequency and severity of large scale storm events associated with global climate change may be particularly profound at the local scale for human populations that rely on lagoon systems for provision of a variety of goods and services. In August 2011 a storm originating in the Southern Ocean caused a large amplitude ocean swell to move northward through the Pacific Ocean. Its arrival at Palmyra Atoll coincided with transient elevated sea surface height and triggered turnover of the lagoon water column. This storm-induced change to the lagoon reflects long distance connectivity with propagated wave energy from the Southern Ocean and illustrates the increasing threats generated by climate change that are faced by human populations on most low-lying Pacific islands and atolls. PMID:24498232

Current medical research funding and frameworks are insufficient to address the health risks of global environmental change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Semenza, Jan C; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-11-11

Three major international agreements signed in 2015 are key milestones for transitioning to more sustainable and resilient societies: the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; and the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Together, these agreements underscore the critical importance of understanding and managing the health risks of global changes, to ensure continued population health improvements in the face of significant social and environmental change over this century. BODY: Funding priorities of major health institutions and organizations in the U.S. and Europe do not match research investments with needs to inform implementation of these international agreements. In the U.S., the National Institutes of Health commit 0.025 % of their annual research budget to climate change and health. The European Union Seventh Framework Programme committed 0.08 % of the total budget to climate change and health; the amount committed under Horizon 2020 was 0.04 % of the budget. Two issues apparently contributing to this mismatch are viewing climate change primarily as an environmental problem, and therefore the responsibility of other research streams; and narrowly framing research into managing the health risks of climate variability and change from the perspective of medicine and traditional public health. This reductionist, top-down perspective focuses on proximate, individual level risk factors. While highly successful in reducing disease burdens, this framing is insufficient to protect health and well-being over a century that will be characterized by profound social and environmental changes. International commitments in 2015 underscored the significant challenges societies will face this century from climate change and other global changes. However, the low priority placed on understanding and managing the associated health risks by national and international research institutions and organizations leaves populations poorly prepared to cope with changing health burdens. Risk-centered, systems approaches can facilitate understanding of the complex interactions and dependencies across environmental, social, and human systems. This understanding is needed to formulate effective interventions targeting socio-environmental factors that are as important for determining health burdens as are individual risk factors.

Stochastic variation in avian survival rates: Life-history predictions, population consequences, and the potential responses to human perturbations and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Stochastic variation in survival rates is expected to decrease long-term population growth rates. This expectation influences both life-history theory and the conservation of species. From this expectation, Pfister (1998) developed the important life-history prediction that natural selection will have minimized variability in those elements of the annual life cycle (such as adult survival rate) with high sensitivity. This prediction has not been rigorously evaluated for bird populations, in part due to statistical difficulties related to variance estimation. I here overcome these difficulties, and in an analysis of 62 populations, I confirm her prediction by showing a negative relationship between the proportional sensitivity (elasticity) of adult survival and the proportional variance (CV) of adult survival. However, several species deviated significantly from this expectation, with more process variance in survival than predicted. For instance, projecting the magnitude of process variance in annual survival for American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) for 25 years resulted in a 44% decline in abundance without assuming any change in mean survival rate. For most of these species with high process variance, recent changes in harvest, habitats, or changes in climate patterns are the likely sources of environmental variability causing this variability in survival. Because of climate change, environmental variability is increasing on regional and global scales, which is expected to increase stochasticity in vital rates of species. Increased stochasticity in survival will depress population growth rates, and this result will magnify the conservation challenges we face.

Geologic events coupled with Pleistocene climatic oscillations drove genetic variation of Omei treefrog (Rhacophorus omeimontis) in southern China.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Zhao, Mian; Wei, Shichao; Luo, Zhenhua; Wu, Hua

2015-12-21

Pleistocene climatic oscillations and historical geological events may both influence current patterns of genetic variation, and the species in southern China that faced unique climatic and topographical events have complex evolutionary histories. However, the relative contributions of climatic oscillations and geographical events to the genetic variation of these species remain undetermined. To investigate patterns of genetic variation and to test the hypotheses about the factors that shaped the distribution of this genetic variation in species of southern China, mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2) and nine microsatellite loci of the Omei tree frog (Rhacophorus omeimontis) were amplified in this study. The genetic diversity in the populations of R. omeimontis was high. The phylogenetic trees reconstructed from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes and the Bayesian genetic clustering analysis based on microsatellite data both revealed that all populations were divided into three lineages (SC, HG and YN). The two most recent splitting events among the lineages coincided with recent geological events (including the intense uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, QTP and the subsequent movements of the Yun-Gui Plateau, YGP) and the Pleistocene glaciations. Significant expansion signals were not detected in mismatch analyses or neutrality tests. And the effective population size of each lineage was stable during the Pleistocene. Based on the results of this study, complex geological events (the recent dramatic uplift of the QTP and the subsequent movements of the YGP) and the Pleistocene glaciations were apparent drivers of the rapid divergence of the R. omeimontis lineages. Each diverged lineages survived in situ with limited gene exchanges, and the stable demographics of lineages indicate that the Pleistocene climatic oscillations were inconsequential for this species. The analysis of genetic variation in populations of R. omeimontis contributes to the understanding of the effects of changes in climate and of geographical events on the dynamic development of contemporary patterns of genetic variation in the species of southern China.

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Introduction Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change. Factors influencing the distribution of genetic variation Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant–insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes. Regional priorities and examples A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude. Conclusions, Solutions and Recommendations The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California’s plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species. PMID:28069633

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Schierenbeck, Kristina A

2017-01-01

Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change. Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant-insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes. A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude. The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California's plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Water, climate change and society in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, Insa; Aßheuer, Tibor; Simmer, Clemens

2017-04-01

Due to its location in the extensive Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river delta, Bangladesh faces multiple natural hazards, in particular flooding, droughts and sea-level rise. In addition to climate change, transboundary water sharing issues resulting from dam structures such as Farakka Barrage complicate a prognosis on how the rapidly growing population will be affected in the 21st century. This is particularly important as our previous research suggests that the Greater Dhaka population already experiences a significant increase in mortality during droughts (Thiele-Eich et al., 2015). We attempt to explore the complex interactions between the hydrological system under climate change and anthropogenic impacts due to dams as well as a growing population. Our approach consists of a quantitative assessment of climate change using over fourty years of meteorological data (Bangladesh Meteorological Department) and hydrological data (Bangladesh Water Development Board), and CCSM4 climate model output (NCAR, 1950-2100). In addition to an extensive literature review, we also conducted qualitative interviews with slum dwellers in the megacity Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. Results show that significant changes in flood characteristics are expected for the later part of the 21st century, although they are difficult to quantify down to exact numbers due to large uncertainties. These changes take place over longer stretches of time and thus enable the population of Bangladesh to adapt slowly. Resources such as social capital, which is one of the main tools for slum dwellers to be able to cope with flooding can be altered over time, and as such the system can be considered overall stable and resilient. The presented results will also focus on how the riparian and coastal population is impacted by the interplay of natural changes such as sea-level rise and anthropogenic changes such as Farakka Barrage and the associated reduction in dry season flow. Thiele-Eich, I.; Burkart, K.; Simmer, C. Trends in Water Level and Flooding in Dhaka, Bangladesh and Their Impact on Mortality. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 1196-1215.

Obstacles facing Africa's young climate scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dike, Victor Nnamdi; Addi, Martin; Andang'o, Hezron Awiti; Attig, Bahar Faten; Barimalala, Rondrotiana; Diasso, Ulrich Jacques; Du Plessis, Marcel; Lamine, Salim; Mongwe, Precious N.; Zaroug, Modathir; Ochanda, Valentine Khasenye

2018-06-01

Current and future climate change poses a substantial threat to the African continent. Young scientists are needed to advance Earth systems science on the continent, but they face significant challenges.

Unique genetic variation at a species' rear edge is under threat from global climate change

PubMed Central

Provan, Jim; Maggs, Christine A.

2012-01-01

Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two single-copy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming. PMID:21593035

Tropical forest response to elevated CO2: Model-experiment integration at the AmazonFACE site.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankenberg, C.; Berry, J. A.; Guanter, L.; Joiner, J.

2014-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere's response to current and future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the C cycle, climate and ecosystem functioning. In particular, the sensitivity of tropical rainforest ecosystems to eCO­2 is largely unknown even though the importance of tropical forests for biodiversity, carbon storage and regional and global climate feedbacks is unambiguously recognized. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air Carbon Enrichment) project will be the first ecosystem scale eCO2 experiment undertaken in the tropics, as well as the first to be undertaken in a mature forest. AmazonFACE provides the opportunity to integrate ecosystem modeling with experimental observations right from the beginning of the experiment, harboring a two-way exchange, i.e. models provide hypotheses to be tested, and observations deliver the crucial data to test and improve ecosystem models. We present preliminary exploration of observed and expected process responses to eCO2 at the AmazonFACE site from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, highlighting opportunities and pitfalls for model integration of tropical FACE experiments. The preliminary analysis provides baseline hypotheses, which are to be further developed with a follow-up multiple model inter-comparison. The analysis builds on the recently undertaken FACE-MDS (Model-Data Synthesis) project, which was applied to two temperate FACE experiments and exceeds the traditional focus on comparing modeled end-target output. The approach has proven successful in identifying well (and less well) represented processes in models, which are separated for six clusters also here; (1) Carbon fluxes, (2) Carbon pools, (3) Energy balance, (4) Hydrology, (5) Nutrient cycling, and (6) Population dynamics. Simulation performance of observed conditions at the AmazonFACE site (a.o. from Manaus K34 eddy flux tower) will highlight process-based model deficiencies, and aid the separation of uncertainties arising from general ecosystem responses and those responses related to eCO2.

Tropical forest response to elevated CO2: Model-experiment integration at the AmazonFACE site.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, K.

2015-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere's response to current and future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the C cycle, climate and ecosystem functioning. In particular, the sensitivity of tropical rainforest ecosystems to eCO­2 is largely unknown even though the importance of tropical forests for biodiversity, carbon storage and regional and global climate feedbacks is unambiguously recognized. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air Carbon Enrichment) project will be the first ecosystem scale eCO2 experiment undertaken in the tropics, as well as the first to be undertaken in a mature forest. AmazonFACE provides the opportunity to integrate ecosystem modeling with experimental observations right from the beginning of the experiment, harboring a two-way exchange, i.e. models provide hypotheses to be tested, and observations deliver the crucial data to test and improve ecosystem models. We present preliminary exploration of observed and expected process responses to eCO2 at the AmazonFACE site from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, highlighting opportunities and pitfalls for model integration of tropical FACE experiments. The preliminary analysis provides baseline hypotheses, which are to be further developed with a follow-up multiple model inter-comparison. The analysis builds on the recently undertaken FACE-MDS (Model-Data Synthesis) project, which was applied to two temperate FACE experiments and exceeds the traditional focus on comparing modeled end-target output. The approach has proven successful in identifying well (and less well) represented processes in models, which are separated for six clusters also here; (1) Carbon fluxes, (2) Carbon pools, (3) Energy balance, (4) Hydrology, (5) Nutrient cycling, and (6) Population dynamics. Simulation performance of observed conditions at the AmazonFACE site (a.o. from Manaus K34 eddy flux tower) will highlight process-based model deficiencies, and aid the separation of uncertainties arising from general ecosystem responses and those responses related to eCO2.

Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Davies, Grace I.; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-01-01

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia. PMID:25546280

Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

PubMed

Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-12-23

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

Mixed methods approach to understanding farmer and agricultural advisor perceptions of climate change and adaptation in Vermont, United States

Treesearch

Rachel E. Schattman; V. Ernesto Méndez; Scott C. Merrill; Asim Zia

2018-01-01

The relationships among farmers' belief in climate change, perceptions of climate-related risk, and use of climate adaptation practices is a growing topic of interest in U.S. scholarship. The northeast region is not well represented in the literature, although it is highly agricultural and will likely face climaterelated risks that differ from those faced in other...

Parietaria judaica flowering phenology, pollen production, viability and atmospheric circulation, and expansive ability in the urban environment: impacts of environmental factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fotiou, Christina; Damialis, Athanasios; Krigas, Nikolaos; Halley, John M.; Vokou, Despoina

2011-01-01

Parietaria judaica (Urticaceae) grows abundantly in urban areas of the Mediterranean region. Its pollen is a major allergy source. We studied the species' distribution and abundance in and around Thessaloniki (Greece), pollen production and pollen season. We also examined how urban pollution affects pollen viability. Our ultimate goal was to obtain an estimate of the species' performance and ability to expand under different environmental conditions related to climate change. We mapped P. judaica and the other Urticaceae species. In a north- and a south-facing population, we recorded the progress of P. judaica flowering and estimated the pollen content per flower, shoot and surface unit. We concurrently assessed atmospheric circulation of Urticaceae pollen. We estimated P. judaica pollen viability and Cu, Pb and Zn concentrations in plants collected from sites differing in traffic intensity. P. judaica is the most abundant Urticaceae species in the area; its occurrence has increased dramatically over the last 100 years. Production of flowers is intense in spring and autumn. Flowering started 12 days earlier in the south-facing population in spring, and 3 days later in autumn. Pollen production was higher in spring and in the south-facing population. Flower and pollen production were positively correlated with the size of the plant and the flower, respectively. Copper and lead concentrations in plants were positively correlated with pollen viability, which was higher for plants collected from high-traffic sites. P. judaica has a high phenotypic plasticity; this is a feature that promotes success of expansive and invasive species. It is also well adapted to warm and polluted urban environments. The climatic change forecast for the Mediterranean region could provoke earlier, longer, and more pronounced flowering and, consequently, more P. judaica pollen in the air. In return, this would result in increased severity of Parietaria pollinosis.

Sustainability of integrated land and water resources management in the face of climate and land use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setegn, Shimelis

2017-04-01

Sustainable development integrates economic development, social development, and environmental protection. Land and Water resources are under severe pressure from increasing populations, fast development, deforestation, intensification of agriculture and the degrading environment in many part of the world. The demand for adequate and safe supplies of water is becoming crucial especially in the overpopulated urban centers of the Caribbean islands. Moreover, population growth coupled with environmental degradation and possible adverse impacts of land use and climate change are major factors limiting freshwater resource availability. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model and analyze the spatiotemporal variability of hydrological processes in the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and Jamaica. Physically based eco-hydrological model was developed and calibrated in the Rio Grande Manati and Wag water watershed. Spatial distribution of annual hydrological processes, water balance components for wet and dry years, and annual hydrological water balance of the watershed are discussed. The impact of land use and climate change are addressed in the watersheds. Appropriate nature based adaptation strategies were evaluated. The study will present a good understanding of advantages and disadvantages of nature-based solutions for adapting climate change, hydro-meteorological risks and other extreme hydrological events.

Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.

Protecting food security when facing uncertain climate: Opportunities for Afghan communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Dina; Amer, Saud A.; Ward, Frank A.

2017-11-01

Climate change, population growth, and weakly developed water management institutions in many of the world's dry communities have raised the importance of designing innovative water allocation methods that adapt to water supply fluctuations while respecting cultural sensitivities. For example, Afghanistan faces an ancient history of water supply fluctuations that have contributed to periodic food shortage and famine. Poorly designed and weakly enforced water allocation methods continue to result in agriculture sector underperformance and periodic food shortages when water shortfalls occur. To date, little research has examined alternative water sharing rules on a multi-basin scale to protect food security for a subsistence irrigation society when the community faces water shortage. This paper's contribution examines the economic performance of three water-sharing mechanisms for three basins in Afghanistan with the goal of protecting food security for crop irrigation under ongoing threats of drought, while meeting growing demands for food in the face of anticipated population growth. We achieved this by formulating an integrated empirical optimization model to identify water-sharing measures that minimize economic losses while protecting food security when water shortages occur. Findings show that implementation of either a water trading policy or a proportional shortage policy that respects cultural sensitivities has the potential to raise economic welfare in each basin. Such a policy can reduce food insecurity risks for all trading provinces within each basin, thus being a productive institution for adapting to water shortage when it occurs. Total economic welfare gains are highest when drought is the most severe for which suffering would otherwise be greatest. Gains would be considerably higher if water storage reservoirs were built to store wet year flows for use in dry years. Our results light a path for policy makers, donors, water administrators, and farm managers, who shoulder the burden of protecting food security and rural livelihoods in the world's poor dry communities.

Climate change and health in Bangladesh: a baseline cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Kabir, Md Iqbal; Rahman, Md Bayzidur; Smith, Wayne; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Milton, Abul Hasnat

2016-01-01

Bangladesh is facing the unavoidable challenge of adaptation to climate change. However, very little is known in relation to climate change and health. This article provides information on potential climate change impact on health, magnitude of climate-sensitive diseases, and baseline scenarios of health systems to climate variability and change. A cross-sectional study using multistage cluster sampling framework was conducted in 2012 among 6,720 households of 224 rural villages in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh. Information was obtained from head of the households using a pretested, interviewer-administered, structured questionnaire. A total of 6,720 individuals participated in the study with written, informed consent. The majority of the respondents were from the low-income vulnerable group (60% farmers or day labourers) with an average of 30 years' stay in their locality. Most of them (96%) had faced extreme weather events, 45% of people had become homeless and displaced for a mean duration of 38 days in the past 10 years. Almost all of the respondents (97.8%) believe that health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Mean annual total health care expenditure was 6,555 Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) (1 USD=77 BDT in 2015) and exclusively out of pocket of the respondents. Incidence of dengue was 1.29 (95% CI 0.65-2.56) and malaria 13.86 (95% CI 6.00-32.01) per 1,000 adult population for 12 months preceding the data collection. Incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia among under-five children of the households for the preceding month was 10.3% (95% CI 9.16-11.66) and 7.3% (95% CI 6.35-8.46), respectively. The findings of this survey indicate that climate change has a potential adverse impact on human health in Bangladesh. The magnitude of malaria, dengue, childhood diarrhoea, and pneumonia was high among the vulnerable communities. Community-based adaptation strategy for health could be beneficial to minimise climate change attributed health burden of Bangladesh.

Climate change communication through networks and partnerships: A successful model of engaging and educating non-specialist audience in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, S.; Nayak, R.; Gore, A.

2013-12-01

There is an overwhelming international scientific consensus on climate change; however, the global community still lacks the resolve to implement meaningful solutions. No meaningful solutions can be found without educating and engaging non-scientific community in addressing the climate change. With more than 41 percent of world's population falling under 10-34 years age group, the future citizens, inspiring them is a great challenge for the climate scientists. In order to educate the youth and students in India, a model program named 'Climeducate' was created with the help of scientists in Indian Polar Research Network (IPRN), trained climate leaders in ';The Climate Reality Project', and a local organization (Planature Consultancy Services). This model was developed keeping in mind the obstacles that may be faced in reaching out to non-specialist audiences in different parts of India. The identified obstacles were 1- making such a presentation that could reveal the truth about the climate crisis in a way that ignites the moral courage in non-specialist audience 2- lack of funding for travel and boarding expenses of a climate communicator, 3- language barrier in educating local audiences, 4- logistical arrangements at the venue. In this presentation we will share how all the four obstacles were overcome. Audiences were also given short questionnaires before and after the presentation. Remarkable changes in the pattern of answers, data would be shared in the presentation, were observed between the two questionnaires. More importantly, a significant difference in audience engagement was observed comparing a presentation that integrated scientific data with audiovisuals prepared by The Climate Reality Project Chairman, Al Gore (also Former US Vice President) and the other using simple PowerPoint slides. With the success of this program which was implemented among 500 audiences in the eastern India, we aim to replicate this program soon in other parts of India. This presentation will outline how scientific story telling through an effective collaboration of network of scientists, climate mentors, school teachers and local organizations would derive significant results in inspiring, engaging and preparing non-specialists audiences to face the realities of climate change.

Food security and climate change: a perfect storm needing an integrated solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholes, R. J.

2011-12-01

The challenges of feeding the world and keeping it within a comfortable climate range loom large in public and policy debates, but to date have mostly been treated as independent issues. In reality they are closely intertwined, and any actions taken to manage one will have to consider the consequences for the other. It is well-understood that agriculture is climatically-sensitive. One of the thresholds defining 'dangerous' climate change is the limit of tolerance of major food production systems to high temperatures, droughts, floods, severe weather events and tropospheric ozone. Less widely-appreciated is the substantial effect which the food system has on climate forcing - currently around a third of the effect, once land use change is included. The size of the effect is highly influenced by land use and food system practices and policies. The remarkable gains in agricultural production since the 1960s and food surpluses in the developed world have masked the severe nutritional inadequacies already faced by a fifth of the global population. For a range of reasons, recent increases in food production have not matched the increasing demand brought about by population growth, changing diets and non-food uses for agricultural products. The result is rising food commodity prices and increasing food insecurity in many parts of the world. In the absence of decisive interventions, these trends are bound to worsen as the global population rises to a projected 9-10 billion people, per capita wealth rises, and water and land resources come under increasing pressure. The imperatives of ensuring food security are likely to materialize earlier than those related to avoiding climate disasters, which could result in actions making the later transgression of the safe climate limits inevitable. There is a narrow trajectory, involving technological, institutional, economic and values-based changes, that could navigate between two equally-unpleasant outcomes.

Human dimensions of climate change: the vulnerability of small farmers in the Amazon.

PubMed

Brondizio, Eduardo S; Moran, Emilio F

2008-05-27

This paper argues for a twofold perspective on human adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. First, we need to understand the processes that mediate perceptions of environmental change and the behavioural responses at the levels of the individual and the local population. Second, we should take into account the process of production and dissemination of global and national climate information and models to regional and local populations, especially small farmers. We discuss the sociocultural and environmental diversity of small farmers in the Amazon and their susceptibility to climate change associated with drought, flooding and accidental fire. Using survey, ethnographic and archival data from study areas in the state of Pará, we discuss farmers' sources of knowledge and long-term memory of climatic events, drought and accidental fire; their sources of climate information; their responses to drought and fire events and the impact of changing rainfall patterns on land use. We highlight the challenges of adaptation to climate change created by the influence of migration and family turnover on collective action and memory, the mismatch of scales used to monitor and disseminate climate data and the lack of extension services to translate large-scale forecasts to local needs. We found that for most farmers, memories of extended drought tend to decrease significantly after 3 years. Over 50% of the farmers interviewed in 2002 did not remember as significant the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought of 1997/1998. This helps explain why approximately 40% of the farmers have not changed their land-use behaviours in the face of the strongest ENSO event of the twentieth century.

Landscape genomic prediction for restoration of a Eucalyptus foundation species under climate change.

PubMed

Supple, Megan Ann; Bragg, Jason G; Broadhurst, Linda M; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Byrne, Margaret; Andrew, Rose L; Widdup, Abigail; Aitken, Nicola C; Borevitz, Justin O

2018-04-24

As species face rapid environmental change, we can build resilient populations through restoration projects that incorporate predicted future climates into seed sourcing decisions. Eucalyptus melliodora is a foundation species of a critically endangered community in Australia that is a target for restoration. We examined genomic and phenotypic variation to make empirical based recommendations for seed sourcing. We examined isolation by distance and isolation by environment, determining high levels of gene flow extending for 500 km and correlations with climate and soil variables. Growth experiments revealed extensive phenotypic variation both within and among sampling sites, but no site-specific differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. Model predictions suggest that seed can be sourced broadly across the landscape, providing ample diversity for adaptation to environmental change. Application of our landscape genomic model to E. melliodora restoration projects can identify genomic variation suitable for predicted future climates, thereby increasing the long term probability of successful restoration. © 2018, Supple et al.

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

PubMed Central

Reed, Thomas E.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hague, Merran J.; Patterson, David A.; Meir, Eli; Waples, Robin S.; Hinch, Scott G.

2011-01-01

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change. PMID:21738573

Economic performance of irrigation capacity development to adapt to climate in the American Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Frank A.; Crawford, Terry L.

2016-09-01

Growing demands for food security to feed increasing populations worldwide have intensified the search for improved performance of irrigation, the world's largest water user. These challenges are raised in the face of climate variability and from growing environmental demands. Adaptation measures in irrigated agriculture include fallowing land, shifting cropping patterns, increased groundwater pumping, reservoir storage capacity expansion, and increased production of risk-averse crops. Water users in the Gila Basin headwaters of the U.S. Lower Colorado Basin have faced a long history of high water supply fluctuations producing low-valued defensive cropping patterns. To date, little research grade analysis has investigated economically viable measures for irrigation development to adjust to variable climate. This gap has made it hard to inform water resource policy decisions on workable measures to adapt to climate in the world's dry rural areas. This paper's contribution is to illustrate, formulate, develop, and apply a new methodology to examine the economic performance from irrigation capacity improvements in the Gila Basin of the American Southwest. An integrated empirical optimization model using mathematical programming is developed to forecast cropping patterns and farm income under two scenarios (1) status quo without added storage capacity and (2) with added storage capacity in which existing barriers to development of higher valued crops are dissolved. We find that storage capacity development can lead to a higher valued portfolio of irrigation production systems as well as more sustained and higher valued farm livelihoods. Results show that compared to scenario (1), scenario (2) increases regional farm income by 30%, in which some sub regions secure income gains exceeding 900% compared to base levels. Additional storage is most economically productive when institutional and technical constraints facing irrigated agriculture are dissolved. Along with additional storage, removal of constraints on weak transportation capacity, limited production scale, poor information access, weak risk-bearing capacity, limited management skills, scarce labor supply, low food processing capacity, and absolute scale constraints, all can raise the economic value of additional irrigation capacity development. Our results light a path forward to policy makers, water administrators, and farm managers, who bear the burden of protecting farm income, food and water security, and rural economic development in the world's dry regions faced by the need to adapt to climate variability.

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

2015-01-01

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Relationships among Safety Climate, Safety Behavior, and Safety Outcomes for Ethnic Minority Construction Workers.

PubMed

Lyu, Sainan; Hon, Carol K H; Chan, Albert P C; Wong, Francis K W; Javed, Arshad Ali

2018-03-09

In many countries, it is common practice to attract and employ ethnic minority (EM) or migrant workers in the construction industry. This primarily occurs in order to alleviate the labor shortage caused by an aging workforce with a lack of new entrants. Statistics show that EM construction workers are more likely to have occupational fatal and nonfatal injuries than their local counterparts; however, the mechanism underlying accidents and injuries in this vulnerable population has been rarely examined. This study aims to investigate relationships among safety climate, safety behavior, and safety outcomes for EM construction workers. To this end, a theoretical research model was developed based on a comprehensive review of the current literature. In total, 289 valid questionnaires were collected face-to-face from 223 Nepalese construction workers and 56 Pakistani construction workers working on 15 construction sites in Hong Kong. Structural equation modelling was employed to validate the constructs and test the hypothesized model. Results show that there were significant positive relationships between safety climate and safety behaviors, and significant negative relationships between safety behaviors and safety outcomes for EM construction workers. This research contributes to the literature regarding EM workers by providing empirical evidence of the mechanisms by which safety climate affects safety behaviors and outcomes. It also provides insights in order to help the key stakeholders formulate safety strategies for EM workers in many areas where numerous EM workers are employed, such as in the U.S., the UK, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Middle East.

The Las Vegas Sustainability Atlas: Modeling Place-based Interactions and Implications in the Las Vegas Valley Bioregion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ego, H.; McCown, K.; Saghafi, N.; Gross, E.; Hunter, W.; Zawarus, P.; Gann, A.; Piechota, T. C.

2014-12-01

Las Vegas, Nevada, with 2 million residents and 40 million annual visitors, is one of the driest metropolitan environments of its size in the world. The metro imports nearly all of its resources, including energy, water and food. Rapid population increases, drought, and temperature increases due to climate change create challenges for planning resilient systems in the Las Vegas Valley. Because of its growth rate, aridity, Las Vegas, Nevada is a significant and relevant region for the study of the water, energy, food and climate nexus. Cities in the United States and the world are seeing increasing trends in urbanization and water scarcity. How does the water-energy-climate-food nexus affect each metropolitan area? How can this complex information be used for resiliency planning? How can it be related to the public, so they can understand the issues in a way that makes them meaningful participants in the planning process? The topic of our presentation is a 'resiliency atlas.' The atlas is a place-based model tested in Las Vegas to explore bioregional distinctiveness of the water-energy-climate-food nexus, including regional transportation systems. The atlas integrates the systems within a utilitarian organization of information. Systems in this place-based model demonstrate how infrastructure services are efficiently provided for the Las Vegas Valley population. This resiliency atlas can clarify how the nexus applies to place; and how it can be used to spur geographically germane adaption strategies. In the Las Vegas Valley, climate change (drought and high sustained temperatures) and population affect water, energy, and food systems. This clarity of a place based model can help educate the public about the resilience of their place, and facilitate and organize the planning process in the face of uncertainty.

The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds

PubMed Central

Carey, Cynthia

2009-01-01

Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and local factors, so that food availability is near optimal for raising young. Climate change is causing mismatches in food supplies, snow cover and other factors that could severely impact successful migration and reproduction of avian populations unless they are able to adjust to new conditions. Resident (non-migratory) birds also face challenges if precipitation and/or temperature patterns vary in ways that result in mismatches of food and breeding. Predictions that many existing climates will disappear and novel climates will appear in the future suggest that communities will be dramatically restructured by extinctions and changes in range distributions. Species that persist into future climates may be able to do so in part owing to the genetic heritage passed down from ancestors who survived climate changes in the past. PMID:19833644

Nesting habits influence population genetic structure of a bee living in anthropogenic disturbance.

PubMed

Vickruck, J L; Richards, M H

2017-05-01

While most organisms are negatively affected by anthropogenic disturbance, a few species thrive in landscapes altered by humans. Typically, native bees are negatively impacted by anthropogenic environmental change, including habitat alteration and climate change. Here, we investigate the population structure of the eastern carpenter bee Xylocopa virginica, a generalist pollinator with a broad geographic range spanning eastern North America. Eastern carpenter bees now nest almost exclusively in artificial wooden structures, linking their geographic distribution and population structure to human activities and disturbance. To investigate the population structure of these bees, we sampled females from 16 different populations from across their range. Nine species-specific microsatellite loci showed that almost all populations are genetically distinct, but with high levels of genetic diversity and low levels of inbreeding overall. Broadly speaking, populations clustered into three distinct genetic groups: a northern group, a western group and a core group. The northern group had low effective population sizes, decreased genetic variability and the highest levels of inbreeding in the data set, suggesting that carpenter bees may be expanding their range northward. The western group was genetically distinct, but lacked signals of a recent range expansion. Climatic data showed that summer and winter temperatures explained a significant amount of the genetic differentiation seen among populations, while precipitation did not. Our results indicate that X. virginica may be one of the rare 'anthrophilic' species that thrive in the face of anthropogenic disturbance. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Earth Futures: a General Education Sustainability Course at the Pennsylvania State University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bralower, T. J.; Bice, D. M.; Barron, E. J.

2012-12-01

Earth in the Future: Predicting Climate Change and Its Impacts Over the Next Century has been taught at The Pennsylvania State University since 2000. The course is a general education course designed to give a broad survey of the science underlying climate change as well as the impacts on natural and human systems. The course has three major goals: (1) to provide an understanding of climate science and of the possible scenarios of how climate may change in the future; (2) to analyze the linkages between climate and major human and natural systems, including agriculture, water, ocean circulation, and coastal ecosystems, necessary to assess the potential impacts of climate change; and (3) to understand the potential responses to climate change, including both adaptation to, and mitigation of change. The general education course is the entry point for a new BS-degree program, Earth System Science and Policy (ESSP). Initially the course was taught face to face on a yearly basis. Recently we have developed an on-line version of the course, and, in Fall semester, 2012, we are teaching a revised version of the course face-to-face and on-line. Both versions of the course are being assessed using survey instruments developed for InTeGrate courses. The simultaneous instruction provides a unique opportunity to compare the strengths and weaknesses of the two different modes of education. From its beginning, the course has included laboratory exercises designed to enhance the student's understanding of climate science. The revised course includes laboratory exercises in every module, including STELLA-based model experiments. These exercises form an essential part of the on-line version of the course, however, the identical exercises are involved in the face-to-face version. In our presentation, we provide preliminary comparison of the two instructional modes as well as their effectiveness in recruiting students to the ESSP major.

Modelling the sensitivity of life history traits to climate change in a temporary pool crustacean.

PubMed

Pinceel, Tom; Vanschoenwinkel, Bram; Brendonck, Luc; Buschke, Falko

2016-07-11

Temporary pool inhabitants face altered inundation regimes under climate change. While their exposure to these changes has received considerable attention, few studies have investigated their sensitivity or adaptability. Here, we use zooplankton as a model to explore how decreasing hydroperiods affect extinction risks and assess whether changes in life history traits could promote persistence. For this, we construct a three-stage matrix population model parameterised with realistic life-history values for the fairy shrimp Branchipodopsis wolfi from pools with varying hydroperiods. Our results suggest that extinction risks increase drastically once the median hydroperiod drops below a critical threshold. Although changes in life-history parameters could potentially compensate for this risk, the relative importance of each trait for population growth depends on the median hydroperiod. For example, survival of dormant eggs seemed to be most important when hydroperiods were short while the survival of freshly laid eggs and adult individuals were more important in longer-lived pools. Overall, this study demonstrates that zooplankton species are sensitive to climate change and that the adaptive capacity of organisms from temporary pools with dissimilar hydrology hinges on selection of different life history traits.

Climate Change and Risks to National Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titley, D.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts national security in three ways: through changes in the operating environments of the military; by increasing risks to security infrastructure, specifically bases and training ranges; and by exacerbating and accelerating the risks of state collapse and conflict in regions that are already fragile and unstable. Additionally there will be unique security challenges in the Arctic as sea-ice melts out and human activities increase across multiple dimensions. Military forces will also likely see increased demand for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief resulting from a combination of increased human population, rising sea-level, and potentially stronger and wetter storms. The talk will explore some of the lesser known aspects of these changes, examine selected climate-driven 'wild cards' that have the potential to disrupt regional and global security, and explore how migration in the face of a changing climate may heighten security issues. I will assess the positions U.S. executive and legislative branches with respect to climate & security, and how those positions have evolved since the November 2016 election, sometimes in counter-intuitive ways. The talk will close with some recommended courses of action the security enterprise can take to manage this climate risk.

Rising temperatures may drive fishing-induced selection of low-performance phenotypes

PubMed Central

Clark, Timothy D.; Messmer, Vanessa; Tobin, Andrew J.; Hoey, Andrew S.; Pratchett, Morgan S.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is likely to interact with other stressors to challenge the physiological capacities and survival of phenotypes within populations. This may be especially true for the billions of fishes per year that undergo vigorous exercise prior to escaping or being intentionally released from fishing gear. Using adult coral grouper (Plectropomus leopardus), an important fisheries species throughout the Indo-Pacific, we show that population-level survival following vigorous exercise is increasingly compromised as temperatures increase from current-day levels (100–67% survival at 24–30 °C) to those projected for the end of the century (42% survival at 33 °C). Intriguingly, we demonstrate that high-performance individuals take longer to recover to a resting metabolic state and subsequently have lower survival in warm water compared with conspecifics that exercise less vigorously. Moreover, we show that post-exercise mortality of high-performance phenotypes manifests after 3–13 d at the current summer maximum (30 °C), while mortality at 33 °C occurs within 1.8–14.9 h. We propose that wild populations in a warming climate may become skewed towards low-performance phenotypes with ramifications for predator-prey interactions and community dynamics. Our findings highlight the susceptibility of phenotypic diversity to fishing activities and demonstrate a mechanism that may contribute to fishing-induced evolution in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:28094310

Ecotypes of an ecologically dominant prairie grass (Andropogon gerardii) exhibit genetic divergence across the U.S. Midwest grasslands' environmental gradient.

PubMed

Gray, Miranda M; St Amand, Paul; Bello, Nora M; Galliart, Matthew B; Knapp, Mary; Garrett, Karen A; Morgan, Theodore J; Baer, Sara G; Maricle, Brian R; Akhunov, Eduard D; Johnson, Loretta C

2014-12-01

Big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii) is an ecologically dominant grass with wide distribution across the environmental gradient of U.S. Midwest grasslands. This system offers an ideal natural laboratory to study population divergence and adaptation in spatially varying climates. Objectives were to: (i) characterize neutral genetic diversity and structure within and among three regional ecotypes derived from 11 prairies across the U.S. Midwest environmental gradient, (ii) distinguish between the relative roles of isolation by distance (IBD) vs. isolation by environment (IBE) on ecotype divergence, (iii) identify outlier loci under selection and (iv) assess the association between outlier loci and climate. Using two primer sets, we genotyped 378 plants at 384 polymorphic AFLP loci across regional ecotypes from central and eastern Kansas and Illinois. Neighbour-joining tree and PCoA revealed strong genetic differentiation between Kansas and Illinois ecotypes, which was better explained by IBE than IBD. We found high genetic variability within prairies (80%) and even fragmented Illinois prairies, surprisingly, contained high within-prairie genetic diversity (92%). Using Bayenv2, 14 top-ranked outlier loci among ecotypes were associated with temperature and precipitation variables. Six of seven BayeScanFST outliers were in common with Bayenv2 outliers. High genetic diversity may enable big bluestem populations to better withstand changing climates; however, population divergence supports the use of local ecotypes in grassland restoration. Knowledge of genetic variation in this ecological dominant and other grassland species will be critical to understanding grassland response and restoration challenges in the face of a changing climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population, Environment, and Climate in the Albertine Rift: Understanding Local Impacts of Regional Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartter, J.; Ryan, S. J.; Diem, J.; Palace, M. W.

2012-12-01

Climate change is of critical concern for conservation and to develop appropriate policies and responses, it is important not only to anticipate the nature of changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local people. The Albertine Rift in East Africa is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense settlement, extreme poverty, and land conversion. We synthesize ongoing NSF-CNH research, where Ugandan park landscapes are examined to understand the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. Kibale National Park, the main study site, exemplifies the challenges facing many parks because of its isolation within a densely populated agricultural landscape. Three separate household surveys (n=251, 130, 100) reveal that the most perceived benefits provided by Kibale were ecosystem services and farmers cite rainfall as one of the park's most important benefits, but are also concerned with variable precipitation. Analysis of 30+ years of daily rainfall station data shows total rainfall has not changed significantly, but timing and transitions of seasons and intra-seasonal distribution are highly variable, which may contribute to changes in farming schedules and threaten food security. Further, the contrast between land use/cover change over 25 years around the park and the stability of forest within the park underscores the need to understand this landscape for future sustainability planning and the inevitable population growth outside its boundaries. Understanding climate change impacts and feedbacks to and from socio-ecological systems are important to address the dual challenge of biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

2017-12-01

Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change impacts on rural, vulnerable areas of the Northeast.

How to communicate climate change 'impact and solutions' to vulnerable population of Indian Sundarbans? From theory to practice.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Abhiroop; Maiti, Subodh Kumar; Bhattacharyya, Santanu

2016-01-01

Global consciousness on climate change problems and adaptation revolves around the disparity of information sharing and communication gap between theoretical scientific knowledge at academic end and practical implications of these at the vulnerable populations' end. Coastal communities facing socio-economic stress, like densely populated Sundarbans, are the most affected part of the world, exposed to climate change problems and uncertainties. This article explores the successes of a socio-environmental project implemented at Indian Sundarbans targeted towards economic improvement and aims at communicating environmental conservation through organized community participation. Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) and the wealth rank tool (WRT) were used to form a "group based organization" with 2100 vulnerable families to give them knowledge about capacity building, disaster management, resource conservation and sustainable agriculture practices. Training was conducted with the selected group members on resource conservation, institution building, alternative income generation activities (AIGA) like, Poultry, Small business, Tricycle van, Organic farming and disaster management in a participatory mode. The climate change 'problems-solutions' were communicated to this socio-economically marginalized and ostracized community through participatory educational theater (PET). WRT revealed that 45 % of the population was under economic stress. Out of 2100 beneficiaries', 1015 beneficiaries' started organic farming, 133 beneficiaries' adopted poultry instead of resource exploitive livelihood and 71 beneficiaries' engaged themselves with small business, which was the success stories of this project. To mitigate disaster, 10-committees were formed and the endemic knowledge about climate change was recorded by participatory method validated through survey by structured questionnaire. As a part of this project 87 ha of naked deforested mudflat was reclaimed with endangered mangroves involving target community members aimed to sequester CO2, control soil erosion and act as a barrier during natural disasters. This case study concluded that participatory method of communication, aiming not only to communicate theoretical knowledge, but also to devise adaptation strategies through conservation of endemic knowledge, popularizing sustainability through Micro Finance Institutions and promoting AIGA along with motivating vulnerable community to restore degraded forest lands, could be a effective solution to practically combat climate change problems.

Climate warming increases biodiversity of small rodents by favoring rare or less abundant species in a grassland ecosystem.

PubMed

Jiang, Guangshun; Liu, Jun; Xu, Lei; Yu, Guirui; He, Honglin; Zhang, Zhibin

2013-06-01

Our Earth is facing the challenge of accelerating climate change, which imposes a great threat to biodiversity. Many published studies suggest that climate warming may cause a dramatic decline in biodiversity, especially in colder and drier regions. In this study, we investigated the effects of temperature, precipitation and a normalized difference vegetation index on biodiversity indices of rodent communities in the current or previous year for both detrended and nondetrended data in semi-arid grassland of Inner Mongolia during 1982-2006. Our results demonstrate that temperature showed predominantly positive effects on the biodiversity of small rodents; precipitation showed both positive and negative effects; a normalized difference vegetation index showed positive effects; and cross-correlation function values between rodent abundance and temperature were negatively correlated with rodent abundance. Our results suggest that recent climate warming increased the biodiversity of small rodents by providing more benefits to population growth of rare or less abundant species than that of more abundant species in Inner Mongolia grassland, which does not support the popular view that global warming would decrease biodiversity in colder and drier regions. We hypothesized that higher temperatures might benefit rare or less abundant species (with smaller populations and more folivorous diets) by reducing the probability of local extinction and/or by increasing herbaceous food resources. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Health Consequence Scales for Use in Health Impact Assessments of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery

2014-01-01

While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comparing health effects associated with climate change and applied within a HIA framework. This assists in setting priorities for adaptation plans to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. The scales presented in this paper were initially developed for a HIA of climate change in Perth in 2050, but they can be applied across spatial and temporal scales. The design is based on a health effects pyramid with health measures expressed in orders of magnitude and linked to baseline population and health data. The health consequence measures are combined with a measure of likelihood to determine the level of risk associated with each health potential health impact. In addition, a simple visual framework that can be used to collate, compare and communicate the level of health risks associated with climate change has been developed. PMID:25229697

Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and governance reflect community resilience for adaptive management is critical for envisioning urban and natural environments that can persist through extreme weather events and longer-term shifts in climate. To be successful, this interaction of these five domains must result in maintaining quality of life and ensuring equal access to the benefits or the protection from harm for all segments of the population. An exhaustive literature review of climate resilience approaches was conducted examining the two primary elements of resilience—vulnerability and recoverability. The results of this review were examined to determine if any existing frameworks addressed the above five major areas in an integrated manner. While some aspects of a resilience model were available for existing sources, no comprehensive approach was available. A new conceptual model for resilience to climate events is proposed that incorporates some available structures and addresses these five domains at a national, regional, state, and county spatial scale for a variety of climate-induced events ranging from superstorms to droughts and their concomitant events such as wildfires, floods, and pest invasions. This conceptua

Stakeholders’ perspectives towards effective climate change adaptation on the Mongolian livestock sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batbaatar, A.; Apichayakul, P.; Tantanee, S.

2018-03-01

Climate change is one of the greatest threats that world is facing today, and having significant deleterious effects on natural and human systems. Recent climate-induced extreme events and their impacts demand timely adaptation actions to the changing odds of their occurrence. The great phenomenon is already being felt in the Mongolian plateau, especially on the livestock sector. The sector provides the main income and livelihood for one-third of the population of about three million people. A high number of livestock is lost due to a unique phenomenon is known as a “dzud”. This paper examines the key stakeholders’ perspectives in the implementation of climate change adaptation and identifies its barriers, with a focus on the livestock sector. In order to meet the objectives, this research used a semi-structured interview with organizations related to the livestock sector and climate change. The extent of stakeholders’ perspectives might be depending on the way they share information, stakeholder engagement, and their experiences with extreme events, as well as their location and level in government. The research findings will indicate an understanding of climate change perspectives, adaptation, and level of capacity of organizations, which can be used as a guideline for organizations to develop climate change adaptation policies related to the livestock sector in Mongolia.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Enabling Responsible Energy Decisions: What People Know, Want to Know, and Need to Know about Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

PytlikZillig, L. M.; Tomkins, A. J.; Harrington, J. A.

2012-12-01

As part of a broader regional effort focused on climate change education and rural communities, this paper focuses on a specific effort to understand effective approaches to two presumably complementary goals: The goal of increasing knowledge about climate change and climate science in a community, and the goal of having communities use climate change and climate science information when making decisions. In this paper, we explore the argument that people do not need or want to know about climate change, in order to make responsible and sustainable energy decisions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that involvement in making responsible and sustainable energy decisions will increase openness and readiness to process climate science information, and thus increase learning about climate change in subsequent exposures to such information. Support for these hypotheses would suggest that rather than encouraging education to enable action (including engagement in attempts to make responsible decisions), efforts should focus on encouraging actions first and education second. To investigate our hypotheses, we will analyze and report results from efforts to engage residents from a medium-sized Midwestern city to give input on future programs involving sustainable energy use. The engagement process (which will not be complete until after the AGU deadline) involves an online survey and an optional face-to-face discussion with city officials and experts in energy-related areas. The online survey includes brief information about current local energy programs, questions assessing knowledge of climate change, and an open-ended question asking what additional information residents need in order to make good decisions and recommendations concerning the energy programs. To examine support for our hypotheses, we will report (1) relationships between subjective and objective knowledge of climate science and willingness to attend the face-to-face discussion about the city's energy decisions and actual attendance at the event, (2) a content analysis of what residents say they want and need to know in order to make decisions and recommendations about the city's energy programs, and (3) pilot results from a comparison of learning from a reading about climate change presented prior to the event, after the event, or presented to those who were willing to attend the face-to-face event but did not attend. We will discuss the results in terms of their implications for the relationship between knowledge and behavior, versus change in knowledge and change in behavior.

FACE-IT. A Science Gateway for Food Security Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montella, Raffaele; Kelly, David; Xiong, Wei

Progress in sustainability science is hindered by challenges in creating and managing complex data acquisition, processing, simulation, post-processing, and intercomparison pipelines. To address these challenges, we developed the Framework to Advance Climate, Economic, and Impact Investigations with Information Technology (FACE-IT) for crop and climate impact assessments. This integrated data processing and simulation framework enables data ingest from geospatial archives; data regridding, aggregation, and other processing prior to simulation; large-scale climate impact simulations with agricultural and other models, leveraging high-performance and cloud computing; and post-processing to produce aggregated yields and ensemble variables needed for statistics, for model intercomparison, and to connectmore » biophysical models to global and regional economic models. FACE-IT leverages the capabilities of the Globus Galaxies platform to enable the capture of workflows and outputs in well-defined, reusable, and comparable forms. We describe FACE-IT and applications within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy.« less

3rd Annual Earth System Grid Federation and 3rd Annual Earth System Grid Federation and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools Face-to-Face Meeting Report December 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

The climate and weather data science community gathered December 3–5, 2013, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in Livermore, California, for the third annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Face-to-Face (F2F) Meeting, which was hosted by the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling, and the Australian Department of Education. Both ESGF and UV-CDAT are global collaborations designed to develop a new generation of open-source software infrastructure that provides distributed access and analysis to observed andmore » simulated data from the climate and weather communities. The tools and infrastructure developed under these international multi-agency collaborations are critical to understanding extreme weather conditions and long-term climate change, while the F2F meetings help to build a stronger climate and weather data science community and stronger federated software infrastructure. The 2013 F2F meeting determined requirements for existing and impending national and international community projects; enhancements needed for data distribution, analysis, and visualization infrastructure; and standards and resources needed for better collaborations.« less

Ice-age survival of Atlantic cod: agreement between palaeoecology models and genetics

PubMed Central

Bigg, Grant R; Cunningham, Clifford W; Ottersen, Geir; Pogson, Grant H; Wadley, Martin R; Williamson, Phillip

2007-01-01

Scant scientific attention has been given to the abundance and distribution of marine biota in the face of the lower sea level, and steeper latitudinal gradient in climate, during the ice-age conditions that have dominated the past million years. Here we examine the glacial persistence of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) populations using two ecological-niche-models (ENM) and the first broad synthesis of multi-locus gene sequence data for this species. One ENM uses a maximum entropy approach (Maxent); the other is a new ENM for Atlantic cod, using ecophysiological parameters based on observed reproductive events rather than adult distribution. Both the ENMs were tested for present-day conditions, then used to hindcast ranges at the last glacial maximum (LGM) ca 21 kyr ago, employing climate model data. Although the LGM range of Atlantic cod was much smaller, and fragmented, both the ENMs agreed that populations should have been able to persist in suitable habitat on both sides of the Atlantic. The genetic results showed a degree of trans-Atlantic divergence consistent with genealogically continuous populations on both sides of the North Atlantic since long before the LGM, confirming the ENM results. In contrast, both the ENMs and the genetic data suggest that the Greenland G. morhua population post-dates the LGM. PMID:17999951

Effects of reduced winter duration on seed dormancy and germination in six populations of the alpine herb Aciphyllya glacialis (Apiaceae)

PubMed Central

Hoyle, G. L.; Cordiner, H.; Good, R. B.; Nicotra, A. B.

2014-01-01

The life stages of seed germination and seedling establishment play a vital role in maintaining plant populations and determining range dynamics of species. Thus, it is not surprising that specific germination requirements and dormancy mechanisms have evolved in all major angiosperm clades. In a rapidly changing climate, we face growing pressure to manage, conserve and restore native plant species and communities. To achieve these aims, we require solid knowledge of whether and how seed germination requirements and dormancy status vary between different populations of a given species and how germination strategies may be affected by warming climatic conditions. We assessed the effect of decreasing durations of cold stratification (i.e. conditions representing a shortened winter as predicted under climate change) on germination and dormancy of the alpine herb Aciphylla glacialis. Our results confirmed previous research showing that A. glacialis seeds possess physiological dormancy that can be alleviated by cold stratification. In addition, the results demonstrated that A. glacialis seeds have underdeveloped embryos at dispersal; these grow to germinable size following 4–9 weeks at both constant 5°C and 10–5°C (day–night) temperatures. We conclude that A. glacialis exhibits morphophysiological dormancy. Furthermore, we found that the final percentage germination and dormancy status varied significantly among natural populations and that this variation did not correlate with elevation at the site of seed origin. Seeds germinated following 6–8 weeks of cold stratification, and seedlings showed no detrimental effects as a result of shorter stratification periods. Together, these results suggest that reduced duration of winter is unlikely to have direct negative impacts on germination or early seedling growth in A. glacialis. The causes and implications of the population variation in germination traits are discussed. PMID:27293636

Relationships among Safety Climate, Safety Behavior, and Safety Outcomes for Ethnic Minority Construction Workers

PubMed Central

Lyu, Sainan; Chan, Albert P. C.; Wong, Francis K. W.

2018-01-01

In many countries, it is common practice to attract and employ ethnic minority (EM) or migrant workers in the construction industry. This primarily occurs in order to alleviate the labor shortage caused by an aging workforce with a lack of new entrants. Statistics show that EM construction workers are more likely to have occupational fatal and nonfatal injuries than their local counterparts; however, the mechanism underlying accidents and injuries in this vulnerable population has been rarely examined. This study aims to investigate relationships among safety climate, safety behavior, and safety outcomes for EM construction workers. To this end, a theoretical research model was developed based on a comprehensive review of the current literature. In total, 289 valid questionnaires were collected face-to-face from 223 Nepalese construction workers and 56 Pakistani construction workers working on 15 construction sites in Hong Kong. Structural equation modelling was employed to validate the constructs and test the hypothesized model. Results show that there were significant positive relationships between safety climate and safety behaviors, and significant negative relationships between safety behaviors and safety outcomes for EM construction workers. This research contributes to the literature regarding EM workers by providing empirical evidence of the mechanisms by which safety climate affects safety behaviors and outcomes. It also provides insights in order to help the key stakeholders formulate safety strategies for EM workers in many areas where numerous EM workers are employed, such as in the U.S., the UK, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Middle East. PMID:29522503

Ambient air pollution, climate change, and population health in China.

PubMed

Kan, Haidong; Chen, Renjie; Tong, Shilu

2012-07-01

As the largest developing country, China has been changing rapidly over the last three decades and its economic expansion is largely driven by the use of fossil fuels, which leads to a dramatic increase in emissions of both ambient air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs). China is now facing the worst air pollution problem in the world, and is also the largest emitter of carbon dioxide. A number of epidemiological studies on air pollution and population health have been conducted in China, using time-series, case-crossover, cross-sectional, cohort, panel or intervention designs. The increased health risks observed among Chinese population are somewhat lower in magnitude, per amount of pollution, than the risks found in developed countries. However, the importance of these increased health risks is greater than that in North America or Europe, because the levels of air pollution in China are very high in general and Chinese population accounts for more than one fourth of the world's totals. Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that climate change has already affected human health directly and indirectly in China, including mortality from extreme weather events; changes in air and water quality; and changes in the ecology of infectious diseases. If China acts to reduce the combustion of fossil fuels and the resultant air pollution, it will reap not only the health benefits associated with improvement of air quality but also the reduced GHG emissions. Consideration of the health impact of air pollution and climate change can help the Chinese government move forward towards sustainable development with appropriate urgency. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shining India?: Assessing and addressing the risks from an unsustainable trajectory of climate, water, food, energy and income inequity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2012-12-01

Climate and demographics are primary drivers of regional resource sustainability. In today's global economy, increasing trade has provided a mechanism to alleviate regional stresses. However, increasing regional income promotes consumption, aggravating regional and global resource pressures. South Asia, has the highest population density at a sub-continent scale. Given its monsoonal climate, and high intensity of agriculture it faces perhaps the most severe population weighted water stress in the world. Rapidly declining groundwater tables and the associated high energy use for pumping for irrigated agriculture translate into unsustainable energy imports and expenditure that contributed to the two largest blackouts in global history in summer 2012. Access to water has been progressively declining for both rural and urban populations for the last 3 decades. The increasing energy imports and poor grid reliability translate into limits to the growth of manufacturing and exports of goods and services. The growing income inequity within the population and across national borders, and the impacts of floods and droughts on access to water, food and energy collectively suggest a very high risk for social unrest and a conflict flashpoint. I present a scenario analysis that establishes this case for the emergence of internal and external strife in the region as an outcome of the current resource and natural disaster management policies in the region. Prospects for strategic policy changes for water and energy management and the design of a food procurement and distribution system that could lead to a better future are discussed.

Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

Climate change and tropical marine agriculture.

PubMed

Crabbe, M James C

2009-01-01

The coral reef ecosystem forms part of a 'seascape' that includes land-based ecosystems such as mangroves and forests, and ideally should form a complete system for conservation and management. Aquaculture, including artisanal fishing for fish and invertebrates, shrimp farming, and seaweed farming, is a major part of the farming and gleaning practices of many tropical communities, particularly on small islands, and depends upon the integrity of the reefs. Climate change is making major impacts on these communities, not least through global warming and high CO(2) concentrations. Corals grow within very narrow limits of temperature, provide livelihoods for millions of people in tropical areas, and are under serious threat from a variety of environmental and climate extremes. Corals survive and grow through a symbiotic relationship with photosynthetic algae: zooxanthellae. Such systems apply highly co-operative regulation to minimize the fluctuation of metabolite concentration profiles in the face of transient perturbations. This review will discuss research on how climate influences reef ecosystems, and how science can lead to conservation actions, with benefits for the human populations reliant on the reefs for their survival.

Heat Exposure and Maternal Health in the Face of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Kuehn, Leeann; McCormick, Sabrina

2017-01-01

Climate change will increasingly affect the health of vulnerable populations, including maternal and fetal health. This systematic review aims to identify recent literature that investigates increasing heat and extreme temperatures on pregnancy outcomes globally. We identify common research findings in order to create a comprehensive understanding of how immediate effects will be sustained in the next generation. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide, we systematically reviewed articles from PubMed and Cochrane Reviews. We included articles that identify climate change-related exposures and adverse health effects for pregnant women. There is evidence that temperature extremes adversely impact birth outcomes, including, but not limited to: changes in length of gestation, birth weight, stillbirth, and neonatal stress in unusually hot temperature exposures. The studies included in this review indicate that not only is there a need for further research on the ways that climate change, and heat in particular, may affect maternal health and neonatal outcomes, but that uniform standards for assessing the effects of heat on maternal fetal health also need to be established. PMID:28758917

Heat Exposure and Maternal Health in the Face of Climate Change.

PubMed

Kuehn, Leeann; McCormick, Sabrina

2017-07-29

Climate change will increasingly affect the health of vulnerable populations, including maternal and fetal health. This systematic review aims to identify recent literature that investigates increasing heat and extreme temperatures on pregnancy outcomes globally. We identify common research findings in order to create a comprehensive understanding of how immediate effects will be sustained in the next generation. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide, we systematically reviewed articles from PubMed and Cochrane Reviews. We included articles that identify climate change-related exposures and adverse health effects for pregnant women. There is evidence that temperature extremes adversely impact birth outcomes, including, but not limited to: changes in length of gestation, birth weight, stillbirth, and neonatal stress in unusually hot temperature exposures. The studies included in this review indicate that not only is there a need for further research on the ways that climate change, and heat in particular, may affect maternal health and neonatal outcomes, but that uniform standards for assessing the effects of heat on maternal fetal health also need to be established.

Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

Quantifying Changes in Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Using Multimodel Ensemble Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir; Love, Charlotte A.; Cheng, Linyin; Vahedifard, Farshid; Lima, Carlos H. R.

2018-03-01

During the last century, we have observed a warming climate with more intense precipitation extremes in some regions, likely due to increases in the atmosphere's water holding capacity. Traditionally, infrastructure design and rainfall-triggered landslide models rely on the notion of stationarity, which assumes that the statistics of extremes do not change significantly over time. However, in a warming climate, infrastructures and natural slopes will likely face more severe climatic conditions, with potential human and socioeconomical consequences. Here we outline a framework for quantifying climate change impacts based on the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events using bias corrected historical and multimodel projected precipitation extremes. The approach evaluates changes in rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves and their uncertainty bounds using a nonstationary model based on Bayesian inference. We show that highly populated areas across the United States may experience extreme precipitation events up to 20% more intense and twice as frequent, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation. Since IDF curves are widely used for infrastructure design and risk assessment, the proposed framework offers an avenue for assessing resilience of infrastructure and landslide hazard in a warming climate.

Field-based high throughput phenotyping rapidly identifies genomic regions controlling yield components in rice

PubMed Central

Tanger, Paul; Klassen, Stephen; Mojica, Julius P.; Lovell, John T.; Moyers, Brook T.; Baraoidan, Marietta; Naredo, Maria Elizabeth B.; McNally, Kenneth L.; Poland, Jesse; Bush, Daniel R.; Leung, Hei; Leach, Jan E.; McKay, John K.

2017-01-01

To ensure food security in the face of population growth, decreasing water and land for agriculture, and increasing climate variability, crop yields must increase faster than the current rates. Increased yields will require implementing novel approaches in genetic discovery and breeding. Here we demonstrate the potential of field-based high throughput phenotyping (HTP) on a large recombinant population of rice to identify genetic variation underlying important traits. We find that detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) with HTP phenotyping is as accurate and effective as traditional labor-intensive measures of flowering time, height, biomass, grain yield, and harvest index. Genetic mapping in this population, derived from a cross of an modern cultivar (IR64) with a landrace (Aswina), identified four alleles with negative effect on grain yield that are fixed in IR64, demonstrating the potential for HTP of large populations as a strategy for the second green revolution. PMID:28220807

Challenge theme 1: Understanding and preserving ecological resources: Chapter 3 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moring, J. Bruce; Papoulias, Diana M.; van Riper, Charles

2013-01-01

Texas Plains; and Western Gulf Coastal Plain. The unique geology and many of the distinctive geographic features and climatic conditions that have given rise to the diverse populations of plants and animals found in the Borderlands also attract human populations. The number of people living in the Borderlands has increased dramatically over recent years, from about 7 million in 1980 to almost 12 million in 2003; the population is estimated to be more than 18 million by 2020 (Peach and Williams, 2003). The human population increase and associated change in land use have contributed to habitat fragmentation and habitat loss for native species, thus threatening their survival. Some ways in which humans negatively affect plants and animals in the Borderlands include dewatering of aquatic ecosystems, water pollution, introduction and spread of invasive species, outdoor lighting, military and border enforcement activity, and energy development and transmission.

Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

2015-12-01

The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

Targeting, out-scaling and prioritising climate-smart interventions in agricultural systems: Lessons from applying a generic framework to the livestock sector in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Notenbaert, An; Pfeifer, Catherine; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

2017-02-01

As a result of population growth, urbanization and climate change, agricultural systems around the world face enormous pressure on the use of resources. There is a pressing need for wide-scale innovation leading to development that improves the livelihoods and food security of the world's population while at the same time addressing climate change adaptation and mitigation. A variety of promising climate-smart interventions have been identified. However, what remains is the prioritization of interventions for investment and broad dissemination. The suitability and adoption of interventions depends on a variety of bio-physical and socio-economic factors. Also their impacts, when adopted and out-scaled, are likely to be highly heterogeneous. This heterogeneity expresses itself not only spatially and temporally but also in terms of the stakeholders affected, some might win and some might lose. A mechanism that can facilitate a systematic, holistic assessment of the likely spread and consequential impact of potential interventions is one way of improving the selection and targeting of such options. In this paper we provide climate smart agriculture (CSA) planners and implementers at all levels with a generic framework for evaluating and prioritising potential interventions. This entails an iterative process of mapping out recommendation domains, assessing adoption potential and estimating impacts. Through examples, related to livestock production in sub-Saharan Africa, we demonstrate each of the steps and how they are interlinked. The framework is applicable in many different forms, scales and settings. It has a wide applicability beyond the examples presented and we hope to stimulate readers to integrate the concepts in the planning process for climate-smart agriculture, which invariably involves multi-stakeholder, multi-scale and multi-objective decision-making.

Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN Red List criteria.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Mahony, Michael; Hines, Harry; Elith, Jane; Regan, Tracey J; Baumgartner, John B; Hunter, David; Heard, Geoffrey W; Mitchell, Nicola J; Parris, Kirsten M; Penman, Trent; Scheele, Ben; Simpson, Christopher C; Tingley, Reid; Tracy, Christopher R; West, Matt; Akçakaya, H Resit

2014-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow-acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short-lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Introduction to Climate Change from an Indigenous Perspective: an undergraduate course developed by and for Tribal Colleges and Universities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, K. A.; Pandya, R. E.; Kahn-Thornbrugh, C.; Newberry, T.; Carroll, M.; Guinn, M.; Vanlopik, W.; Haines, C.; Wildcat, D.

2010-12-01

Thirty-six Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs) serve over 20,000 Native American undergraduate students across the US. TCUs were created in response to the higher education needs of American Indians and generally serve geographically isolated populations that have no other means accessing education beyond the high school level. TCUs have become increasingly important to educational opportunity for Native American students and are unique institutions that combine personal attention with cultural relevance to encourage Native Americans to overcome the barriers they face to higher education. The American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC) coordinated development of a semester-long geosciences program of study with a unique curriculum that introduces tribal college students to multiple disciplines in the geosciences within the topic of global climate change. Importantly, the curriculum structure does not parallel typical college climate change survey courses, but rather is taught from the perspective of the traditional ecological knowledge held by native peoples of North America. The richly varied history, geography, ecology, culture and scientific knowledge of Native American tribes across the US serves as the starting point from which students are taught about atmospheric and earth sciences and the connection of climate change to all our lives. In addition, examples and case studies focusing specifically on tribal lands foster the development of future Native American leaders with the scientific, technological and cultural skills required to assist tribal communities in managing their lands and maintaining their cultures as they face a climate-altered future. The "Introduction to Climate Change from an Indigenous Perspective" curriculum was developed by tribal college faculty from multiple institutions through a collaborative workshop process. The course was piloted and taught at 5 tribal colleges during spring semester 2010. This presentation provides an overview of the course goals, content and delivery.

Strengthening Adaptation to Extreme Climate Events in Southwestern Amazonia: an Example from the Trinational Acre River Basin in the Madre de Dios/Peru - Acre/Brazil - Pando/Bolivia (MAP) Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, I. F.

2015-12-01

Southwestern Amazonia, where Bolivia, Brazil and Peru meet, faces numerous challenges to the sustainable utilization of land and water resources as the region experiences rapid population and economic growth, expanding agriculture, transportation and energy sectors, along with frequent flooding and droughts. It is also predicted to be one of the most susceptible areas for climate change in the coming decade. The Acre River Basin, one of the few trinational basins in Amazonia, lies at the center of the Madre de Dios Region (Peru), Acre State (Brazil) and Pando Department (Bolivia) or MAP Region. It covers approximately 7,500 km2 and its inhabitants range from indigenous groups avoiding contact with industrial society to more than 60,000 dwellers of a binational urban center. The basin incorporates most the challenges facing the region and this paper discusses steps underway to address the basin's vulnerability to climate-related threats. A trinational group of professionals used GIS databases and local knowledge to classify these threats and possible societal responses. To prioritize threats and to propose responses, this group adapted a method proposed by the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence of Australia to develop climate risk matrices for assessing impacts, adaptation, risk and vulnerability. The three priority climate variables were prolonged and more frequent droughts, more intense flooding, and more days with temperatures > 35oC. The final matrix proposed two areas of concentration - 1) Reduce the vulnerability of communities to hydro-meteorological extreme events and 2) Protect and restore ecosystems that maintain critical water-related resources with actions in public policy, capacity-building, and immediate activities. These results are being incorporated into the Amazon Project of the Global Environment Fund of the United Nations Environment Program, administered by the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO).

Climate change and health in Bangladesh: a baseline cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

Kabir, Md Iqbal; Rahman, Md Bayzidur; Smith, Wayne; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Milton, Abul Hasnat

2016-01-01

Background Bangladesh is facing the unavoidable challenge of adaptation to climate change. However, very little is known in relation to climate change and health. This article provides information on potential climate change impact on health, magnitude of climate-sensitive diseases, and baseline scenarios of health systems to climate variability and change. Design A cross-sectional study using multistage cluster sampling framework was conducted in 2012 among 6,720 households of 224 rural villages in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh. Information was obtained from head of the households using a pretested, interviewer-administered, structured questionnaire. A total of 6,720 individuals participated in the study with written, informed consent. Results The majority of the respondents were from the low-income vulnerable group (60% farmers or day labourers) with an average of 30 years’ stay in their locality. Most of them (96%) had faced extreme weather events, 45% of people had become homeless and displaced for a mean duration of 38 days in the past 10 years. Almost all of the respondents (97.8%) believe that health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Mean annual total health care expenditure was 6,555 Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) (1 USD=77 BDT in 2015) and exclusively out of pocket of the respondents. Incidence of dengue was 1.29 (95% CI 0.65–2.56) and malaria 13.86 (95% CI 6.00–32.01) per 1,000 adult population for 12 months preceding the data collection. Incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia among under-five children of the households for the preceding month was 10.3% (95% CI 9.16–11.66) and 7.3% (95% CI 6.35–8.46), respectively. Conclusions The findings of this survey indicate that climate change has a potential adverse impact on human health in Bangladesh. The magnitude of malaria, dengue, childhood diarrhoea, and pneumonia was high among the vulnerable communities. Community-based adaptation strategy for health could be beneficial to minimise climate change attributed health burden of Bangladesh. PMID:27049012

Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A 'Mental Models' Approach.

PubMed

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

2017-10-01

As the specter of climate change looms on the horizon, people will face complex decisions about whether to support climate change policies and how to cope with climate change impacts on their lives. Without some grasp of the relevant science, they may find it hard to make informed decisions. Climate experts therefore face the ethical need to effectively communicate to non-expert audiences. Unfortunately, climate experts may inadvertently violate the maxims of effective communication, which require sharing communications that are truthful, brief, relevant, clear, and tested for effectiveness. Here, we discuss the 'mental models' approach towards developing communications, which aims to help experts to meet the maxims of effective communications, and to better inform the judgments and decisions of non-expert audiences.

A global threats overview for Numeniini populations: synthesising expert knowledge for a group of declining migratory birds.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Brown, Daniel J.; Douglas, David J.T.; Alves, José A.; Bellio, Mariagrazia; Bocher, Pierrick; Buchannan, Graeme M.; Clay, Robert P.; Conklin, Jesse R.; Crockford, Nicola; Dann, Peter; Elts, Jaanus; Friis, Christian; Fuller, Richard A.; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gosbell, Ken; Johnson, James A.; Marquez-Ferrando, Rocio; Masero, José A.; Melville, David S.; Millington, Spike; Minton, Clive; Mundkur, Taej; Nol, Erika; Pehlak, Hannes; Piersma, Theunis; Rogers, Danny I.; Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Senner, Nathan R.; Nazeer Shah, Junid; Sheldon, Rob D.; Soloviev, Sergej A.; Tomkovich, Pavel S.; Verkuil, Yvonne I.

2017-01-01

The Numeniini is a tribe of 13 wader species (Scolopacidae, Charadriiformes) of which seven are Near Threatened or globally threatened, including two Critically Endangered. To help inform conservation management and policy responses, we present the results of an expert assessment of the threats that members of this taxonomic group face across migratory flyways. Most threats are increasing in intensity, particularly in non-breeding areas, where habitat loss resulting from residential and commercial development, aquaculture, mining, transport, disturbance, problematic invasive species, pollution and climate change were regarded as having the greatest detrimental impact. Fewer threats (mining, disturbance, problematic native species and climate change) were identified as widely affecting breeding areas. Numeniini populations face the greatest number of non-breeding threats in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, especially those associated with coastal reclamation; related threats were also identified across the Central and Atlantic Americas, and East Atlantic flyways. Threats on the breeding grounds were greatest in Central and Atlantic Americas, East Atlantic and West Asian flyways. Three priority actions were associated with monitoring and research: to monitor breeding population trends (which for species breeding in remote areas may best be achieved through surveys at key non-breeding sites), to deploy tracking technologies to identify migratory connectivity, and to monitor land-cover change across breeding and non-breeding areas. Two priority actions were focused on conservation and policy responses: to identify and effectively protect key non-breeding sites across all flyways (particularly in the East Asian- Australasian Flyway), and to implement successful conservation interventions at a sufficient scale across human-dominated landscapes for species' recovery to be achieved. If implemented urgently, these measures in combination have the potential to alter the current population declines of many Numeniini species and provide a template for the conservation of other groups of threatened species.

Coexisting oak species, including rear-edge populations, buffer climate stress through xylem adjustments.

PubMed

Granda, E; Alla, A Q; Laskurain, N A; Loidi, J; Sánchez-Lorenzo, A; Camarero, J J

2018-02-01

The ability of trees to cope with climate change is a pivotal feature of forest ecosystems, especially for rear-edge populations facing warm and dry conditions. To evaluate current and future forests threats, a multi-proxy focus on the growth, anatomical and physiological responses to climate change is needed. We examined the long-term xylem adjustments to climate variability of the temperate Quercus robur L. at its rear edge and the sub-Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica Willd. Both species coexist at a mesic (ME, humid and warmer) and a xeric (XE, dry and cooler) site in northern Spain, the latter experiencing increasing temperatures in recent decades. We compared xylem traits at each site and assessed their trends, relationships and responses to climate (1960-2008). Traits included basal area increment, earlywood vessel hydraulic diameter, density and theoretical-specific hydraulic conductivity together with latewood oxygen (δ18O) stable isotopes and δ13C-derived water-use efficiency (iWUE). Quercus robur showed the highest growth at ME, likely through enhanced cambial activity. Quercus pyrenaica had higher iWUE at XE compared with ME, but limited plasticity of anatomical xylem traits was found for the two oak species. Similar physiological performance was found for both species. The iWUE augmented in recent years especially at XE, likely explained by stomatal closure given the increasing δ18O signal in response to drier and sunnier growing seasons. Overall, traits were more correlated at XE than at ME. The iWUE improvements were linked to higher growth up to a threshold (~85 μmol mol-1) after which reduced growth was found at XE. Our results are consistent with Q. pyrenaica and Q. robur coexisting at the central and dry edge of the climatic species distribution, respectively, showing similar responses to buffer warmer conditions. In fact, the observed adjustments found for Q. robur point towards growth stability of similar rear-edge oak populations under warmer climate conditions. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Alpine biodiversity and assisted migration: The case of the American pika (Ochotona princeps)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilkening, Jennifer L.; Ray, Chris; Ramsay, Nathan G.; Klingler, Kelly

2015-01-01

Alpine mammals are predicted to be among the species most threatened by climate change, due to the projected loss and further fragmentation of alpine habitats. As temperature or precipitation regimes change, alpine mammals may also be faced with insurmountable barriers to dispersal. The slow rate or inability to adjust to rapidly shifting environmental conditions may cause isolated alpine species to become locally extirpated, resulting in reduced biodiversity. One proposed method for mitigating the impacts of alpine species loss is assisted migration. This method, which involves translocating a species to an area with more favourable climate and habitat characteristics, has become the subject of debate and controversy in the conservation community. The uncertainty associated with climate change projections, coupled with the thermal sensitivity of many alpine mammals, makes it difficult to a priori assess the efficacy of this technique as a conservation management tool. Here we present the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as a case study. American pikas inhabit rocky areas throughout the western US, and populations in some mountainous areas have become locally extirpated in recent years. We review known climatic and habitat requirements for this species, and also propose protocols designed to reliably identify favourable relocation areas. We present data related to the physiological constraints of this species and outline specific requirements which must be addressed for translocation of viable populations, including wildlife disease and genetic considerations. Finally, we discuss potential impacts on other alpine species and alpine communities, and overall implications for conserving alpine biodiversity in a changing climate.

Impacts of Austrian Climate Variability on Honey Bee Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switanek, Matt; Brodschneider, Robert; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo

2015-04-01

Global food production, as it is today, is not possible without pollinators such as the honey bee. It is therefore alarming that honey bee populations across the world have seen increased mortality rates in the last few decades. The challenges facing the honey bee calls into question the future of our food supply. Beside various infectious diseases, Varroa destructor is one of the main culprits leading to increased rates of honey bee mortality. Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite which strongly depends on honey bee brood for reproduction and can wipe out entire colonies. However, climate variability may also importantly influence honey bee breeding cycles and bee mortality rates. Persistent weather events affects vegetation and hence foraging possibilities for honey bees. This study first defines critical statistical relationships between key climate indicators (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and bee mortality rates across Austria, using 6 consecutive years of data. Next, these leading indicators, as they vary in space and time, are used to build a statistical model to predict bee mortality rates and the respective number of colonies affected. Using leave-one-out cross validation, the model reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 21% with respect to predictions made with the mean mortality rate and the number of colonies. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo test is used to establish that the model's predictions are statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. These results highlight the influence of climate variables on honey bee populations, although variability in climate, by itself, cannot fully explain colony losses. This study was funded by the Austrian project 'Zukunft Biene'.

The aesthetics of water and land: a promising concept for managing scarce water resources under climate change.

PubMed

Tielbörger, Katja; Fleischer, Aliza; Menzel, Lucas; Metz, Johannes; Sternberg, Marcelo

2010-11-28

The eastern Mediterranean faces a severe water crisis: water supply decreases due to climate change, while demand increases due to rapid population growth. The GLOWA Jordan River project generates science-based management strategies for maximizing water productivity under global climate change. We use a novel definition of water productivity as the full range of services provided by landscapes per unit blue (surface) and green (in plants and soil) water. Our combined results from climatological, ecological, economic and hydrological studies suggest that, in Israel, certain landscapes provide high returns as ecosystem services for little input of additional blue water. Specifically, cultural services such as recreation may by far exceed that of food production. Interestingly, some highly valued landscapes (e.g. rangeland) appear resistant to climate change, making them an ideal candidate for adaptive land management. Vice versa, expanding irrigated agriculture is unlikely to be sustainable under global climate change. We advocate the inclusion of a large range of ecosystem services into integrated land and water resources management. The focus on cultural services and integration of irrigation demand will lead to entirely different but productive water and land allocation schemes that may be suitable for withstanding the problems caused by climate change.

Concern and Helplessness: Citizens' Assessments of Individual and Collective Action on the Provision of Environmental Public Goods in a Coastal City at Risk of Inundation.

PubMed

Bunyan, Sabrina; Collins, Alan; Duffy, David

2016-09-01

Survey data from a representative sample of 1005 households in the UK coastal city of Portsmouth are examined to discern commonalities and contrasts in their assessment of actions to address the related environmental threats of climate change and flooding. The city of Portsmouth is at risk of inundation from rising sea levels and the city has recent experience of flooding. A simple local and global public good framework is used to organize the understanding of reported attitudes and their determinants. The findings show that it is not always the same individuals who express concern about both climate change and flooding. Investigation into perceptions of helplessness in tackling climate change indicates that individuals more often perceived themselves to be helpless in tackling climate but perceived local collective action to be more effective. Individuals considered local collective action to be more effective in tackling climate change. Perceptions of individual helplessness are in turn related to reported concern. Several socioeconomic characteristics of individuals are shown to be useful in explaining the determinants of concern and perceptions of helplessness among respondents. As other cities face climate change-related challenges, the empirical findings, based upon attitudes from an alert urban population, are informative to policy design.

Concern and Helplessness: Citizens' Assessments of Individual and Collective Action on the Provision of Environmental Public Goods in a Coastal City at Risk of Inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunyan, Sabrina; Collins, Alan; Duffy, David

2016-09-01

Survey data from a representative sample of 1005 households in the UK coastal city of Portsmouth are examined to discern commonalities and contrasts in their assessment of actions to address the related environmental threats of climate change and flooding. The city of Portsmouth is at risk of inundation from rising sea levels and the city has recent experience of flooding. A simple local and global public good framework is used to organize the understanding of reported attitudes and their determinants. The findings show that it is not always the same individuals who express concern about both climate change and flooding. Investigation into perceptions of helplessness in tackling climate change indicates that individuals more often perceived themselves to be helpless in tackling climate but perceived local collective action to be more effective. Individuals considered local collective action to be more effective in tackling climate change. Perceptions of individual helplessness are in turn related to reported concern. Several socioeconomic characteristics of individuals are shown to be useful in explaining the determinants of concern and perceptions of helplessness among respondents. As other cities face climate change-related challenges, the empirical findings, based upon attitudes from an alert urban population, are informative to policy design.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Climate change, biotic interactions and ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Montoya, José M.; Raffaelli, Dave

2010-01-01

Climate change is real. The wrangling debates are over, and we now need to move onto a predictive ecology that will allow managers of landscapes and policy makers to adapt to the likely changes in biodiversity over the coming decades. There is ample evidence that ecological responses are already occurring at the individual species (population) level. The challenge is how to synthesize the growing list of such observations with a coherent body of theory that will enable us to predict where and when changes will occur, what the consequences might be for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and what we might do practically in order to maintain those systems in as good condition as possible. It is thus necessary to investigate the effects of climate change at the ecosystem level and to consider novel emergent ecosystems composed of new species assemblages arising from differential rates of range shifts of species. Here, we present current knowledge on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services supply, and summarize the papers included in this volume. We discuss how resilient ecosystems are in the face of the multiple components that characterize climate change, and suggest which current ecological theories may be used as a starting point to predict ecosystem-level effects of climate change. PMID:20513709

Recent Challenges Facing US Government Climate Science Access and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carter, J. M.; Licker, R.

2017-12-01

Climate scientists have long faced politicization of their work, especially those working within the US federal government. However, political interference in federal government climate change science has escalated in the current political era with efforts by political actors to undermine and disrupt infrastructure supporting climate science. This has included funding changes, decreased access to climate science information on federal agency websites, restrictions on media access to scientific experts within the government, and rolling back of science-based policies designed to incorporate and respond to climate science findings. What are the impacts of such changes for both the climate science community and the broader public? What can be done to ensure that access to and application of climate change-related research to policy decisions continues? We will summarize and analyze the state of climate change research and application in the US government. The impacts of political interference in climate change science as well as opportunities the scientific community has to support climate science in the US government, will be discussed.

Separated by sand, fused by dropping water: habitat barriers and fluctuating water levels steer the evolution of rock-dwelling cichlid populations in Lake Tanganyika.

PubMed

Koblmüller, Stephan; Salzburger, Walter; Obermüller, Beate; Eigner, Eva; Sturmbauer, Christian; Sefc, Kristina M

2011-06-01

The conditions of phenotypic and genetic population differentiation allow inferences about the evolution, preservation and loss of biological diversity. In Lake Tanganyika, water level fluctuations are assumed to have had a major impact on the evolution of stenotopic littoral species, though this hypothesis has not been specifically examined so far. The present study investigates whether subtly differentiated colour patterns of adjacent Tropheus moorii populations are maintained in isolation or in the face of continuous gene flow, and whether the presumed influence of water level fluctuations on lacustrine cichlids can be demonstrated in the small-scale population structure of the strictly stenotopic, littoral Tropheus. Distinct population differentiation was found even across short geographic distances and minor habitat barriers. Population splitting chronology and demographic histories comply with our expectation of old and rather stable populations on steeper sloping shore, and more recently established populations in a shallower region. Moreover, population expansions seem to coincide with lake level rises in the wake of Late Pleistocene megadroughts ~100 KYA. The imprint of hydrologic events on current population structure in the absence of ongoing gene flow suggests that phenotypic differentiation among proximate Tropheus populations evolves and persists in genetic isolation. Sporadic gene flow is effected by lake level fluctuations following climate changes and controlled by the persistence of habitat barriers during lake level changes. Since similar demographic patterns were previously reported for Lake Malawi cichlids, our data furthermore strengthen the hypothesis that major climatic events synchronized facets of cichlid evolution across the East African Great Lakes. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Financial Strategies Moderate Weather Impacts on Food Security Outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, M. E.; Niles, M.

2016-12-01

Global food security relies on local agricultural capacity as well as the financial ability to import food from elsewhere. Climate change is likely to affect the ability to grow sufficient food to meet the needs of a growing population in low income countries where population expansion is the greatest. This paper presents an analysis of 2095 household surveys from 12 food insecure countries in West Africa, East Africa and Asia from the Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) program conducted from 2010-2012. Using a multi-level hierarchical random effects model, we estimated the number of months a household was food insecure with information on the rainfall anomaly the year prior to the survey, agricultural input use, cash income, and community group membership. We found that when the rainfall was either one standard deviation above or below the mean, the number of months households experience food insecurity increased by 74%. When there is a significant weather anomaly, agricultural credit and cash income, but not agricultural inputs or social capital, are found to be critical factors reducing food insecurity. This highlights the ongoing and critical importance of risk reduction strategies such as crop insurance, government safety nets, and credit for maintaining food security in the face of climate change.

Estimating the potential for adaptation of corals to climate warming.

PubMed

Császár, Nikolaus B M; Ralph, Peter J; Frankham, Richard; Berkelmans, Ray; van Oppen, Madeleine J H

2010-03-18

The persistence of tropical coral reefs is threatened by rapidly increasing climate warming, causing a functional breakdown of the obligate symbiosis between corals and their algal photosymbionts (Symbiodinium) through a process known as coral bleaching. Yet the potential of the coral-algal symbiosis to genetically adapt in an evolutionary sense to warming oceans is unknown. Using a quantitative genetics approach, we estimated the proportion of the variance in thermal tolerance traits that has a genetic basis (i.e. heritability) as a proxy for their adaptive potential in the widespread Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora. We chose two physiologically different populations that associate respectively with one thermo-tolerant (Symbiodinium clade D) and one less tolerant symbiont type (Symbiodinium C2). In both symbiont types, pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis revealed significant heritabilities for traits related to both photosynthesis and photoprotective pigment profile. However, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assays showed a lack of heritability in both coral host populations for their own expression of fundamental stress genes. Coral colony growth, contributed to by both symbiotic partners, displayed heritability. High heritabilities for functional key traits of algal symbionts, along with their short clonal generation time and high population sizes allow for their rapid thermal adaptation. However, the low overall heritability of coral host traits, along with the corals' long generation time, raise concern about the timely adaptation of the coral-algal symbiosis in the face of continued rapid climate warming.

Estimating the Potential for Adaptation of Corals to Climate Warming

PubMed Central

Császár, Nikolaus B. M.; Ralph, Peter J.; Frankham, Richard; Berkelmans, Ray; van Oppen, Madeleine J. H.

2010-01-01

The persistence of tropical coral reefs is threatened by rapidly increasing climate warming, causing a functional breakdown of the obligate symbiosis between corals and their algal photosymbionts (Symbiodinium) through a process known as coral bleaching. Yet the potential of the coral-algal symbiosis to genetically adapt in an evolutionary sense to warming oceans is unknown. Using a quantitative genetics approach, we estimated the proportion of the variance in thermal tolerance traits that has a genetic basis (i.e. heritability) as a proxy for their adaptive potential in the widespread Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora. We chose two physiologically different populations that associate respectively with one thermo-tolerant (Symbiodinium clade D) and one less tolerant symbiont type (Symbiodinium C2). In both symbiont types, pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis revealed significant heritabilities for traits related to both photosynthesis and photoprotective pigment profile. However, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assays showed a lack of heritability in both coral host populations for their own expression of fundamental stress genes. Coral colony growth, contributed to by both symbiotic partners, displayed heritability. High heritabilities for functional key traits of algal symbionts, along with their short clonal generation time and high population sizes allow for their rapid thermal adaptation. However, the low overall heritability of coral host traits, along with the corals' long generation time, raise concern about the timely adaptation of the coral-algal symbiosis in the face of continued rapid climate warming. PMID:20305781

Adaptation to climate change--exploring the potential of locally adapted breeds.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Irene

2013-06-01

The livestock sector and agriculture as a whole face unprecedented challenges to increase production while improving the environment. On the basis of a literature review, the paper first discusses challenges related to climate change, food security and other drivers of change in livestock production. On the basis of a recent discourse in ecology, a framework for assessing livestock species' and breeds' vulnerability to climate change is presented. The second part of the paper draws on an analysis of data on breed qualities obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization's Domestic Animal Diversity Information System (DAD-IS) to explore the range of adaptation traits present in today's breed diversity. The analysis produced a first mapping of a range of ascribed adaptation traits of national breed populations. It allowed to explore what National Coordinators understand by 'locally adapted' and other terms that describe general adaptation, to better understand the habitat, fodder and temperature range of each species and to shed light on the environments in which targeted search for adaptation traits could focus.

Natural disaster vulnerability and human-induced pressure assessment in small islands developing states: A case study in the Union of the Comoros

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burak, S.; Meddeb, R.

2012-04-01

The Comoros Islands are part of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) located in the Indian Ocean. SIDS are islands and low-lying coastal nations that face common barriers to sustainable development, including limited resources, poor economic resilience, and vulnerability to sea level rise and natural disasters. The Comoros Archipelago is made up of four islands but the present study was conducted on three islands, namely Mwali (Mohéli), Ngazidja (Grande Comore) and Dzwani (Anjouan) that are aligned in the Mozambique Channel and spread over a surface area of 1862 km2. These islands are exposed to natural disaster coupled with human-induced pressure on natural resources. The major natural disaster vulnerability has been identified by the National AdaptationProgramme of Action (NAPA, 2006) as climate change, whose likely adverse impacts on the Comoros Islands are: i) changes in rainfall patterns; ii) increases in temperature; iii) salinization of coastal aquifers as a result of salt water intrusion due to sea level rise; and iv) increased frequency of severe weather conditions (such as tropical cyclones, droughts, heavy rainfall and flooding). In addition, existing practices related to natural resources management (primarily land, forest and water management) are very poor and this failure is increasingly threatening water and food security, resulting in a decline of economic growth and standards of living within the Comoros. Human-induced pressure combined with climate change impact is the inherent vulnerabilities of these islands. The government of the Union of the Comoros is aware of the alarming nature of climate change impact and has put in place several projects aiming at implementing adaptation measures in order to help increase the resilience of the vulnerable population in the face of this threat. These projects involve strengthening institutions, policy and regulations so as to improve the management of natural resources, among other measures. The objective of this paper is to present the existing situation in these islands based on field surveys and comprehensive discussions with all the stakeholders and local population to implement adaptation measures in order to counter the effects of climate change. Keywords: Comoros Islands, water resources, adaptation, vulnerability, resilience

Climate Change and Health on the U.S. Gulf Coast: Public Health Adaptation is Needed to Address Future Risks.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Ebi, Kristie L; Culp, Derrin; Redlener, Irwin

2015-08-11

The impacts of climate change on human health have been documented globally and in the United States. Numerous studies project greater morbidity and mortality as a result of extreme weather events and other climate-sensitive hazards. Public health impacts on the U.S. Gulf Coast may be severe as the region is expected to experience increases in extreme temperatures, sea level rise, and possibly fewer but more intense hurricanes. Through myriad pathways, climate change is likely to make the Gulf Coast less hospitable and more dangerous for its residents, and may prompt substantial migration from and into the region. Public health impacts may be further exacerbated by the concentration of people and infrastructure, as well as the region's coastal geography. Vulnerable populations, including the very young, elderly, and socioeconomically disadvantaged may face particularly high threats to their health and well-being. This paper provides an overview of potential public health impacts of climate variability and change on the Gulf Coast, with a focus on the region's unique vulnerabilities, and outlines recommendations for improving the region's ability to minimize the impacts of climate-sensitive hazards. Public health adaptation aimed at improving individual, public health system, and infrastructure resilience is urgently needed to meet the challenges climate change may pose to the Gulf Coast in the coming decades.

Predicting impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity of Kalopanax septemlobus in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Wanmo; Minor, Emily S.; Lee, Dowon; Park, Chan-Ryul

2016-02-01

Understanding the drivers of habitat distribution patterns and assessing habitat connectivity are crucial for conservation in the face of climate change. In this study, we examined a sparsely distributed tree species, Kalopanax septemlobus (Araliaceae), which has been heavily disturbed by human use in temperate forests of South Korea. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling (MaxEnt) to identify the climatic and topographic factors driving the distribution of the species. Then, we constructed habitat models under current and projected climate conditions for the year 2050 and evaluated changes in the extent and connectivity of the K. septemlobus habitat. Annual mean temperature and terrain slope were the two most important predictors of species distribution. Our models predicted the range shift of K. septemlobus toward higher elevations under medium-low and high emissions scenarios for 2050, with dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (51% and 85%, respectively). In addition, connectivity analysis indicated that climate change is expected to reduce future levels of habitat connectivity. Even under the Representative Construction Pathway (RCP) 4.5 medium-low warming scenario, the projected climate conditions will decrease habitat connectivity by 78%. Overall, suitable habitats for K. septemlobus populations will likely become more isolated depending on the severity of global warming. The approach presented here can be used to efficiently assess species and habitat vulnerability to climate change.

Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

2014-12-01

China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national agriculture adaptation strategy decisions.

Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert I.; Green, Pamela; Balk, Deborah; Fekete, Balazs M.; Revenga, Carmen; Todd, Megan; Montgomery, Mark

2011-01-01

Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations. PMID:21444797

Impacts of climate change and environmental factors on reproduction and development in wildlife

PubMed Central

Milligan, Stuart R.; Holt, William V.; Lloyd, Rhiannon

2009-01-01

The robustness of the growth of the human population in the face of environmental impacts is in contrast to the sensitivity of wildlife. There is a danger that the success of reproduction of humans provides a false sense of security for the public, media and politicians with respect to wildlife survival, the maintenance of viable ecosystems and the capacity for recovery of damaged ecosystems and endangered species. In reality, the success of humans to populate the planet has been dependent on the combination of the ability to reproduce successfully and to minimize loss of offspring through controlling and manipulating their own micro-environment. In contrast, reproduction in wildlife is threatened by environmental changes operating at many different physiological levels. PMID:19833643

A unified initiative to harness Earth’s microbiomes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alivisatos, A Paul; Blaser, M. J.; Brodie, Eoin L.

2015-10-28

Nearly three billion years ago, photosynthetic cyanobacteria transformed Earth’s atmosphere from oxygen-poor to oxygen-rich, enabling the evolution of complex life (1). Microbes shaped our evolutionary origins and their vast impact continues: they are essential constituents of animals and plants and are the most widespread, abundant, and diverse life forms on our planet. Microbial activities enable life but can also imperil it, through unwelcome effects like greenhouse gas production and disease. With a rapidly growing population, centuries of land use, and a changing climate, our planet faces extraordinary challenges. Given their fundamental roles in agriculture, energy production, and the health ofmore » our oceans, forests, and human population, understanding the collective activities of Earth’s microbes has never been more crucial.« less

Future Freshwater Stress on Small Islands: Population, Aridity and Global Warming Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnauskas, K. B.; Schleussner, C. F.; Donnelly, J. P.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Future freshwater stress, including geographic and seasonal variability, has important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios for vulnerable human populations living on islands across the world ocean. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here we apply a recently developed methodology to project future changes in aridity in combination with population projections associated with different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. By accounting for evaporative demand a posteriori, we reveal a robust yet spatially variable tendency towards increasing aridity for 16 million people living on islands by mid-century. Although about half of the islands are projected to experience increased rainfall—predominantly in the deep tropics—projected changes in evaporation are more uniform, shifting the global distribution of changes in island freshwater balance towards greater aridity. In many cases, the magnitude of projected drying is comparable to the amplitude of the estimated observed interannual variability, with important consequences for extreme events. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially towards the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. Particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction ( 25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2°C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.

Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2017-12-01

This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies like social protection or migration, under many future scenarios.

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Bruno R; Sales, Lilian P; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

2016-01-01

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species' response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species' range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species' vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species' ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Bruno R.; Sales, Lilian P.; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

2016-01-01

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts. PMID:27829036

What health professionals should know about the health effects of air pollution and climate change on children and pregnant mothers.

PubMed

Poursafa, Parinaz; Kelishadi, Roya

2011-01-01

Health professionals face the adverse health effects of climate change and air pollution in their practices. This review underscores the effects of these environmental factors on maternal and children's health, as the most vulnerable groups to climate change and air pollution. We reviewed electronic databases for a search of the literature to find relevant studies published in English from 1990 to 2011. Environmental factors, notably climate change and air pollution influence children's health before conception and continue during pregnancy, childhood, and adolescence. Experts have suggested that such health hazards may represent the greatest public health challenge that humanity has faced. The accumulation of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, primarily from burning fossil fuels, results in warming which has an impact on air pollution particularly on levels of ozone and particulates. Heat-related health effects include increased rates of pregnancy complications, pre-eclampsia, eclampsia, low birth weight, renal effects, vector-borne diseases as malaria and dengue, increased diarrheal and respiratory disease, food insecurity, decreased quality of foods (notably grains), malnutrition, water scarcity, exposures to toxic chemicals, worsened poverty, natural disasters and population displacement. Air pollution has many adverse health effects for mothers and children. In addition to short-term effects like premature labour, intrauterine growth retardation, neonatal and infant mortality rate, malignancies (notably leukaemia and Hodgkin lymphoma), respiratory diseases, allergic disorders and anaemia, exposure to criteria air pollutants from early life might be associated with increase in stress oxidative, inflammation and endothelial dysfunction which in turn might have long-term effects on chronic non-communicable diseases. Health professionals have an exclusive capability to help prevent and reduce the harmful effects of environmental factors for high-risk groups, and should consider this capacity in their usual practice.

Integrating STEM Place-Based, Culturally Responsive and Citizen Science Learning in Exploring the Impacts and Feedbacks of a Changing Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Spellman, K. V.; Fabbri, C.; Comiso, J. C.; Chase, M.; Fochesatto, G. J.; Butcher, C. E.; Jones, D.; Bacsujlaky, M.; Yoshikawa, K.; Gho, C. L.; Wegner, K.

2016-12-01

To build capacity in navigating challenges associated with a changing climate, learning in Arctic communities must not only increase STEM and climate change literacy, but also generate new knowledge as the rapid changes occur. Among the new NASA Science Mission Directorate Science Education projects, Arctic and Earth SIGNs (STEM Integrating GLOBE and NASA assets) is providing opportunities for K-12 pre-service and in-service teachers, their students, and lifelong learners to engage in citizen science using the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) methods and culturally responsive learning to help address climate change challenges within their unique community, and contribute to hypothesis driven research. This project will weave traditional knowledge and western science, and use ground observations and satellite data and best teaching practices in STEM learning, supported through a NASA cooperative agreement and collaborative partnerships. Implementation will begin in rural Alaska and grow within Alaska and throughout the United States to reach underserved and STEM underrepresented populations, through face-to-face and on-line teaching and learning as well as building partnerships among educators, scientists, local and indigenous experts, institutions, agencies, and learning communities. Partners include research and teaching institutions at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the Association of Interior Native Educators, the North Slope Borough School District and other school districts, the Kenaitze Tribe Environmental Education program, NASA science education and research programs as well as those of NOAA and NSF, the GLOBE Implementation Office, the 4-H program and others. The program resources and model will be shared and disseminated within the United States and globally through partners for local, national and worldwide use in STEM climate change education and citizen empowerment.

Understanding past, contemporary, and future dynamics of plants, populations, and communities using Sonoran Desert winter annuals.

PubMed

Huxman, Travis E; Kimball, Sarah; Angert, Amy L; Gremer, Jennifer R; Barron-Gafford, Greg A; Venable, D Lawrence

2013-07-01

Global change requires plant ecologists to predict future states of biological diversity to aid the management of natural communities, thus introducing a number of significant challenges. One major challenge is considering how the many interacting features of biological systems, including ecophysiological processes, plant life histories, and species interactions, relate to performance in the face of a changing environment. We have employed a functional trait approach to understand the individual, population, and community dynamics of a model system of Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. We have used a comprehensive approach that connects physiological ecology and comparative biology to population and community dynamics, while emphasizing both ecological and evolutionary processes. This approach has led to a fairly robust understanding of past and contemporary dynamics in response to changes in climate. In this community, there is striking variation in physiological and demographic responses to both precipitation and temperature that is described by a trade-off between water-use efficiency (WUE) and relative growth rate (RGR). This community-wide trade-off predicts both the demographic and life history variation that contribute to species coexistence. Our framework has provided a mechanistic explanation to the recent warming, drying, and climate variability that has driven a surprising shift in these communities: cold-adapted species with more buffered population dynamics have increased in relative abundance. These types of comprehensive approaches that acknowledge the hierarchical nature of biology may be especially useful in aiding prediction. The emerging, novel and nonstationary climate constrains our use of simplistic statistical representations of past plant behavior in predicting the future, without understanding the mechanistic basis of change.

Persistence in a Two-Dimensional Moving-Habitat Model.

PubMed

Phillips, Austin; Kot, Mark

2015-11-01

Environmental changes are forcing many species to track suitable conditions or face extinction. In this study, we use a two-dimensional integrodifference equation to analyze whether a population can track a habitat that is moving due to climate change. We model habitat as a simple rectangle. Our model quickly leads to an eigenvalue problem that determines whether the population persists or declines. After surveying techniques to solve the eigenvalue problem, we highlight three findings that impact conservation efforts such as reserve design and species risk assessment. First, while other models focus on habitat length (parallel to the direction of habitat movement), we show that ignoring habitat width (perpendicular to habitat movement) can lead to overestimates of persistence. Dispersal barriers and hostile landscapes that constrain habitat width greatly decrease the population's ability to track its habitat. Second, for some long-distance dispersal kernels, increasing habitat length improves persistence without limit; for other kernels, increasing length is of limited help and has diminishing returns. Third, it is not always best to orient the long side of the habitat in the direction of climate change. Evidence suggests that the kurtosis of the dispersal kernel determines whether it is best to have a long, wide, or square habitat. In particular, populations with platykurtic dispersal benefit more from a wide habitat, while those with leptokurtic dispersal benefit more from a long habitat. We apply our model to the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly (Parnassius smintheus).

Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spickett, Jeffery T., E-mail: J.Spickett@curtin.edu.a; Brown, Helen L., E-mail: h.brown@curtin.edu.a; Katscherian, Dianne, E-mail: Dianne.Katscherian@health.wa.gov.a

2011-04-15

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location.more » Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to address the potential health impacts of climate change.« less

Adaptive phenotypic response to climate enabled by epigenetics in a K-strategy species, the fish Leucoraja ocellata (Rajidae)

PubMed Central

Incarnato, Danny; Ward, Ben J.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Bradbury, Ian; Hanson, Mark; Bentzen, Paul

2016-01-01

The relative importance of genetic versus epigenetic changes in adaptive evolution is a hotly debated topic, with studies showing that some species appear to be able to adapt rapidly without significant genetic change. Epigenetic mechanisms may be particularly important for the evolutionary potential of species with long maturation times and low reproductive potential (‘K-strategists’), particularly when faced with rapidly changing environmental conditions. Here we study the transcriptome of two populations of the winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata), a typical ‘K-strategist’, in Atlantic Canada; an endemic population in the southern Gulf of St Lawrence and a large population on the Scotian Shelf. The endemic population has been able to adapt to a 10°C higher water temperature over short evolutionary time (7000 years), dramatically reducing its body size (by 45%) significantly below the minimum maturation size of Scotian Shelf and other populations of winter skate, as well as exhibiting other adaptations in life history and physiology. We demonstrate that the adaptive response to selection has an epigenetic basis, cataloguing 3653 changes in gene expression that may have enabled this species to rapidly respond to the novel environment. We argue that the epigenetic augmentation of species evolutionary potential (its regulation though gene expression) can enable K-strategists to survive and adapt to different environments, and this mechanism may be particularly important for the persistence of sharks, skates and rays in the light of future climate change. PMID:27853546

Climate Leadership in the Financial Sector Webinar

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Financial sector winners from the 2015 Climate Leadership Awards discuss best practices and challenges faced by their corporations based on their experience of attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address climate risk.

Mass wasting deposits in the upper Sehonghong valley, eastern Lesotho: Late Pleistocene climate implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, S. C.; Grab, S. W.

2009-04-01

Despite considerable research attention on apparent periglacial, glacial and sedimentary phenomena in the Maluti-Drakensberg alpine environment, knowledge on the Quaternary environmental history of this important watershed and climate-divide is still rather rudimentary. The dearth of Quaternary environmental indicators (proxy data) in the high Drakensberg is partly owing to the harsh climate (e.g. high wind speeds and high seasonal precipitation), which offers a poor preservation of past biological remains (e.g. bones, dung, middens, pollen). Possibly the best opportunity to reconstruct high Drakensberg palaeoenvironments is from sedimentary sequences exposed along fluvially-incised valley fills. The upper Sehonghong River (3000 to 3200 m a.s.l.) flows in a westerly direction and is flanked by north- and south-facing slopes reaching 3465 m a.s.l. Sediment is exposed on both the north- and south-facing slopes along the river. Despite uniform regional environmental conditions (geology, topography, climate, vegetation), there is a notable absence of similar north-facing deposits in adjacent upper valley catchments to the north and south of Sehonghong Valley. The upper Sehonghong Valley thus presents somewhat ‘unique' evidence for palaeo-slope mass movement in this alpine region. Thick colluvial deposits are most prominent on the south-facing slopes along the Sehonghong River and occur at altitudes between 3100 m a.s.l. and 3150 m a.s.l. The colluvial mantles are approximately 7 m in thickness, however reach up to 13 m in some areas. Although the north-facing lower valley side-slopes are generally absent of deposits, the notable exception is the thick stratified deposit located a few kilometres upstream. Whilst the south-facing deposits are relatively uniform in nature, the north-facing deposits consist of alternating units of gravel and organic sediment, dated to 36 600 ± 1400 14C yrs BP, and reflecting environmental changes during the Late Pleistocene. Mass wasting deposits support enhanced periglacial activity during the Late Pleistocene, particularly on south-facing slopes, and also where conditions were conducive to enhanced sediment transport on the adjacent north-facing slope of the Sehonghong River. Recent published work has suggested evidence for marginal glaciation in the high Drakensberg within 10 km of the Sehonghong Valley, suggesting that whilst particular environmental settings host deposits classified as glacial moraine, adjacent valleys are occupied by deep (~8 m) valley deposits flanking south-facing slopes. We demonstrate that the variable nature of adjacent valley slope deposits at similar altitudes is a product of a past climate that was within the glacial/periglacial equilibrium zone, and influenced by specific topographic and associated micro-climatic thresholds.

Antibiotic resistance increases with local temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacFadden, Derek R.; McGough, Sarah F.; Fisman, David; Santillana, Mauricio; Brownstein, John S.

2018-06-01

Bacteria that cause infections in humans can develop or acquire resistance to antibiotics commonly used against them1,2. Antimicrobial resistance (in bacteria and other microbes) causes significant morbidity worldwide, and some estimates indicate the attributable mortality could reach up to 10 million by 20502-4. Antibiotic resistance in bacteria is believed to develop largely under the selective pressure of antibiotic use; however, other factors may contribute to population level increases in antibiotic resistance1,2. We explored the role of climate (temperature) and additional factors on the distribution of antibiotic resistance across the United States, and here we show that increasing local temperature as well as population density are associated with increasing antibiotic resistance (percent resistant) in common pathogens. We found that an increase in temperature of 10 °C across regions was associated with an increases in antibiotic resistance of 4.2%, 2.2%, and 2.7% for the common pathogens Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. The associations between temperature and antibiotic resistance in this ecological study are consistent across most classes of antibiotics and pathogens and may be strengthening over time. These findings suggest that current forecasts of the burden of antibiotic resistance could be significant underestimates in the face of a growing population and climate change4.

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

2015-01-01

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate.

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change. PMID:26057739

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.

PubMed

Thomson, Robin B; Alderman, Rachael L; Tuck, Geoffrey N; Hobday, Alistair J

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.

Index-Based Insurance Contracts to FOSTER Cooperation Between Agents Exposed to Uncorrelated Drought and Flooding Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denaro, S.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Characklis, G. W.

2017-12-01

Worldwide, conflict over shared water resources is exacerbated by population growth, economic development and climate change. In multi-purpose water systems, stakeholders can face higher financial risks as a consequence of increased hydrological uncertainty and recurrent extreme events. In this context, a financial hedging tool able to bundle together the uncorrelated risks faced by different stakeholders may be an efficient solution to both foster cooperation and manage the financial losses associated with extreme events. In this work we explore the potential of risk diversification strategies involving index-based insurance joint contract solutions, to manage financial risk in a multi-purpose water system prone to both drought and flood risk. Risk diversification can allow for reduced insurance premiums in situations in which the bundled risks are entirely, or mostly, uncorrelated. Jointly covering flood and drought related risks from competing users in the same geographic area represents a novel application. The approach is demonstrated using a case study on Lake Maggiore, a regulated lake whose management is highly controversial due to numerous and competing human activities. In particular we focus on the ongoing conflict among the lakeshore population, affected by flood risk, and the downstream farmers' districts, facing drought related losses. Results are promising and indicate that bundling uncorrelated risks from competing users is beneficial to both promoting insurance premium affordability and facilitating collaboration schemes at the catchment scale.

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

PubMed

Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-02-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

Adapting to a Changing Environment: Modeling the Interaction of Directional Selection and Plasticity.

PubMed

Nunney, Leonard

2016-01-01

Human-induced habitat loss and fragmentation constrains the range of many species, making them unable to respond to climate change by moving. For such species to avoid extinction, they must respond with some combination of phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation. Haldane's "cost of natural selection" limits the rate of adaptation, but, although modeling has shown that in very large populations long-term adaptation can be maintained at rates substantially faster than Haldane's suggested limit, maintaining large populations is often an impossibility, so phenotypic plasticity may be crucial in enhancing the long-term survival of small populations. The potential importance of plasticity is in "buying time" for populations subject to directional environmental change: if genotypes can encompass a greater environmental range, then populations can maintain high fitness for a longer period of time. Alternatively, plasticity could be detrimental by lessening the effectiveness of natural selection in promoting genetic adaptation. Here, I modeled a directionally changing environment in which a genotype's adaptive phenotypic plasticity is centered around the environment where its fitness is highest. Plasticity broadens environmental tolerance and, provided it is not too costly, is favored by natural selection. However, a paradoxical result of the individually advantageous spread of plasticity is that, unless the adaptive trait is determined by very few loci, the long-term extinction risk of a population increases. This effect reflects a conflict between the short-term individual benefit of plasticity and a long-term detriment to population persistence, adding to the multiple threats facing small populations under conditions of climate change. © The American Genetic Association. 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Metabolic rates of giant pandas inform conservation strategies.

PubMed

Fei, Yuxiang; Hou, Rong; Spotila, James R; Paladino, Frank V; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Zhihe

2016-06-06

The giant panda is an icon of conservation and survived a large-scale bamboo die off in the 1980s in China. Captive breeding programs have produced a large population in zoos and efforts continue to reintroduce those animals into the wild. However, we lack sufficient knowledge of their physiological ecology to determine requirements for survival now and in the face of climate change. We measured resting and active metabolic rates of giant pandas in order to determine if current bamboo resources were sufficient for adding additional animals to populations in natural reserves. Resting metabolic rates were somewhat below average for a panda sized mammal and active metabolic rates were in the normal range. Pandas do not have exceptionally low metabolic rates. Nevertheless, there is enough bamboo in natural reserves to support both natural populations and large numbers of reintroduced pandas. Bamboo will not be the limiting factor in successful reintroduction.

Anthropogenic Impacts on Mortality and Population Viability of the Monarch Butterfly.

PubMed

Malcolm, Stephen B

2018-01-07

Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) are familiar herbivores of milkweeds of the genus Asclepias, and most monarchs migrate each year to locate these host plants across North American ecosystems now dominated by agriculture. Eastern migrants overwinter in high-elevation forests in Mexico, and western monarchs overwinter in trees on the coast of California. Both populations face three primary threats to their viability: (a) loss of milkweed resources for larvae due to genetically modified crops, pesticides, and fertilizers; (b) loss of nectar resources from flowering plants; and (c) degraded overwintering forest habitats due to commercially motivated deforestation and other economic activities. Secondary threats to population viability include (d) climate change effects on milkweed host plants and the dynamics of breeding, overwintering, and migration; (e) the influence of invasive plants and natural enemies; (f) habitat fragmentation and coalescence that promote homogeneous, species-depleted landscapes; and (g) deliberate culture and release of monarchs and invasive milkweeds.

Metabolic rates of giant pandas inform conservation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fei, Yuxiang; Hou, Rong; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Zhihe

2016-06-01

The giant panda is an icon of conservation and survived a large-scale bamboo die off in the 1980s in China. Captive breeding programs have produced a large population in zoos and efforts continue to reintroduce those animals into the wild. However, we lack sufficient knowledge of their physiological ecology to determine requirements for survival now and in the face of climate change. We measured resting and active metabolic rates of giant pandas in order to determine if current bamboo resources were sufficient for adding additional animals to populations in natural reserves. Resting metabolic rates were somewhat below average for a panda sized mammal and active metabolic rates were in the normal range. Pandas do not have exceptionally low metabolic rates. Nevertheless, there is enough bamboo in natural reserves to support both natural populations and large numbers of reintroduced pandas. Bamboo will not be the limiting factor in successful reintroduction.

Metabolic rates of giant pandas inform conservation strategies

PubMed Central

Fei, Yuxiang; Hou, Rong; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Zhihe

2016-01-01

The giant panda is an icon of conservation and survived a large-scale bamboo die off in the 1980s in China. Captive breeding programs have produced a large population in zoos and efforts continue to reintroduce those animals into the wild. However, we lack sufficient knowledge of their physiological ecology to determine requirements for survival now and in the face of climate change. We measured resting and active metabolic rates of giant pandas in order to determine if current bamboo resources were sufficient for adding additional animals to populations in natural reserves. Resting metabolic rates were somewhat below average for a panda sized mammal and active metabolic rates were in the normal range. Pandas do not have exceptionally low metabolic rates. Nevertheless, there is enough bamboo in natural reserves to support both natural populations and large numbers of reintroduced pandas. Bamboo will not be the limiting factor in successful reintroduction. PMID:27264109

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

2015-01-01

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

"It Takes a Network": Building National Capacity for Climate Change Interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spitzer, W.

2014-12-01

Since 2007, the New England Aquarium has led a national effort to increase the capacity of informal science venues to effectively communicate about climate change. We are now leading the NSF-funded National Network for Ocean and Climate Change Interpretation (NNOCCI), partnering with the Association of Zoos and Aquariums, FrameWorks Institute, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Monterey Bay Aquarium, and National Aquarium, with evaluation conducted by the New Knowledge Organization, Pennsylvania State University, and Ohio State University. More than 1,500 informal science venues (science centers, museums, aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks) are visited annually by 61% of the U.S. population. These visitors expect reliable information about environmental issues and solutions. NNOCCI enables teams of informal science interpreters across the country to serve as "communication strategists" - beyond merely conveying information they can influence public perceptions, given their high level of commitment, knowledge, public trust, social networks, and visitor contact. Beyond providing in-depth training, we have found that our "alumni network" is assuming an increasingly important role in achieving our goals: 1. Ongoing learning - Training must be ongoing given continuous advances in climate and social science research. 2. Implementation support - Social support is critical as interpreters move from learning to practice, given complex and potentially contentious subject matter. 3. Leadership development - We rely on a national cadre of interpretive leaders to conduct workshops, facilitate study circle trainings, and support alumni. 4. Coalition building - A peer network helps to build and maintain connections with colleagues, and supports further dissemination through the informal science community. We are experimenting with a variety of online and face to face strategies to support the growing alumni network. Our goals are to achieve a systemic national impact, embed our work within multiple ongoing regional and national climate change education networks, and leave an enduring legacy.

Developing a protocol for long-term population monitoring and habitat projections for a climate-sensitive sentinel species to track ecosystem change and species range shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beers, A.

2016-12-01

As a response to ongoing climate change, many species have started to shift their ranges poleward and toward higher elevations and mountain environments are predicted to experience especially rapid climatic changes. Because of this, there is likely a greater risk of habitat loss and local extinctions for species at high elevations compared to species at lower elevations. Among those potentially threatened habitat specialists is the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a climate sensitive indicator of climate change effects which may already be experiencing climate driven extirpations. Pikas are considered sentinels, indicators of greater ecosystem change. Changes in their distribution speaks to changes in availability of resources they require and shifts in the environment. Pika presence is closely tied to sub-surface ice features that act as a temperature buffer and water source. Those sub-surface ice features are critical in water cycling and long-term water storage and drive downstream hydrological and ecological processes. Understanding how this species responds to climate change therefore provides a model to inform landscape level conservation and management decisions. Pikas may be particularly vulnerable in parts of Colorado, including Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) and the Niwot Ridge LTER (NWT), where they may face population collapse as habitat suitability and connectivity both decline in response to various possible climate change scenarios, in large part because of cold stress and declining functional connectivity. Because of their potential role as an ecosystem indicator, their risk for decline, and how limitations to their survival likely vary across their range, management groups can use place based models of habitat suitability for pikas or other sentinel species in designing long term monitoring protocols to detect ecosystem responses to climate change. In this project we used remotely sensed data, occupancy surveys, and a random tessellation stratification to design a protocol for ROMO and NWT that best suits those environments. We also demonstrate the efficacy of habitat models based on remote sensing and their potential application toward tracking ecosystem change and species range shifts.

Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Fernández, Cristina

2015-04-01

The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation and adaptation are therefore complementary actions. In the long term, climate change without mitigation measures will likely exceed the adaptive capacity of natural, managed and human systems. Early adoption of mitigation measures would break the dependence on carbon-intensive infrastructures and reduce adaptation needs to climate change. It also can save on adaptation cost. Therefore mitigation is the key objective of the global warming problem but little is being done in this field. We will present some proposals of "preventive economically efficient" policies at a global and regional level which will constitute the complement to the adaptation aspect.

Climate-Smart Seedlot Selection Tool: Reforestation and Restoration for the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevenson-Molnar, N.; Howe, G.; St Clair, B.; Bachelet, D. M.; Ward, B. C.

2017-12-01

Local populations of trees are generally adapted to their local climates. Historically, this has meant that local seed zones based on geography and elevation have been used to guide restoration and reforestation. In the face of climate change, seeds from local sources will likely be subjected to climates significantly different from those to which they are currently adapted. The Seedlot Selection Tool (SST) offers a new approach for matching seed sources with planting sites based on future climate scenarios. The SST is a mapping program designed for forest managers and researchers. Users can use the tool to to find seedlots for a given planting site, or to find potential planting sites for a given seedlot. Users select a location (seedlot or planting site), climate scenarios (a climate to which seeds are adapted, and a current or future climate scenario), climate variables, and transfer limits (the maximum climatic distance that is considered a suitable match). Transfer limits are provided by the user, or derived from the range of values within a geographically defined seed zone. The tool calculates scores across the landscape based on an area's similarity, in a multivariate climate space, to the input. Users can explore results on an interactive map, and export PDF and PowerPoint reports, including a map of the results along with the inputs used. Planned future improvements include support for non-forest use cases and ability to download results as GeoTIFF data. The Seedlot Selection Tool and its source code are available online at https://seedlotselectiontool.org. It is co-developed by the United States Forest Service, Oregon State University, and the Conservation Biology Institute.

Water availability and environmental temperature correlate with geographic variation in water balance in common lizards.

PubMed

Dupoué, Andréaz; Rutschmann, Alexis; Le Galliard, Jean François; Miles, Donald B; Clobert, Jean; DeNardo, Dale F; Brusch, George A; Meylan, Sandrine

2017-12-01

Water conservation strategies are well documented in species living in water-limited environments, but physiological adaptations to water availability in temperate climate environments are still relatively overlooked. Yet, temperate species are facing more frequent and intense droughts as a result of climate change. Here, we examined variation in field hydration state (plasma osmolality) and standardized evaporative water loss rate (SEWL) of adult male and pregnant female common lizards (Zootoca vivipara) from 13 natural populations with contrasting air temperature, air humidity, and access to water. We found different patterns of geographic variation between sexes. Overall, males were more dehydrated (i.e. higher osmolality) than pregnant females, which likely comes from differences in field behaviour and water intake since the rate of SEWL was similar between sexes. Plasma osmolality and SEWL rate were positively correlated with environmental temperature in males, while plasma osmolality in pregnant females did not correlate with environmental conditions, reproductive stage or reproductive effort. The SEWL rate was significantly lower in populations without access to free standing water, suggesting that lizards can adapt or adjust physiology to cope with habitat dryness. Environmental humidity did not explain variation in water balance. We suggest that geographic variation in water balance physiology and behaviour should be taken account to better understand species range limits and sensitivity to climate change.

Disturbance Hydrology in the Tropics: The Galápagos Islands as a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riveros-Iregui, D. A.; Schmitt, S.; Percy, M.; Hu, J.; Singha, K.; Mirus, B. B.

2015-12-01

Tropical Latin America has shown the largest acceleration in land use change in recent decades. It is well established that changes in vegetation cover can lead to changes in water demand, evapotranspiration, and eventually soil textural characteristics. Given the projected changes in the intensity and distribution of rainfall in tropical regions in the coming decades, it is critical to characterize how changes in land use change across different climatic zones may fundamentally reshape water availability and storage, soil composition and associated hydraulic properties, and overall watershed hydrologic behavior. This study evaluates the role of anthropogenic disturbance on hydrological processes across different climatic zones in the tropics. We focus specifically on San Cristobal Island, the second most populated island of the iconic Galapagos archipelago, which is currently undergoing severe anthropogenic transformation. The island contains a spectrum of climates, ranging from very humid to arid, and has seen a dramatic increase in tourism and an increase in the permanent population of greater than 1000% in the last 40 years. Over 70% of the landscape of San Cristobal has been altered by land use change and invasive species. Our study identifies the complex interactions among hydrological, geological, economic, and social variables that tropical island systems will face in the years ahead, and the role and effects of a dynamic hydrologic cycle across multiple scales.

Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population.

PubMed

Tavecchia, Giacomo; Tenan, Simone; Pradel, Roger; Igual, José-Manuel; Genovart, Meritxell; Oro, Daniel

2016-12-01

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate-driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual-based data on a trans-equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large-scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ i , estimated using local climate-driven parameters with ρ i , a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate-dependent parameters, ρ i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate-driven projections. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

PubMed Central

Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-01-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

Field-based high throughput phenotyping rapidly identifies genomic regions controlling yield components in rice

DOE PAGES

Tanger, Paul; Klassen, Stephen; Mojica, Julius P.; ...

2017-02-21

In order to ensure food security in the face of population growth, decreasing water and land for agriculture, and increasing climate variability, crop yields must increase faster than the current rates. Increased yields will require implementing novel approaches in genetic discovery and breeding. We demonstrate the potential of field-based high throughput phenotyping (HTP) on a large recombinant population of rice to identify genetic variation underlying important traits. We find that detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) with HTP phenotyping is as accurate and effective as traditional labor- intensive measures of flowering time, height, biomass, grain yield, and harvest index. Furthermore, geneticmore » mapping in this population, derived from a cross of an modern cultivar (IR64) with a landrace (Aswina), identified four alleles with negative effect on grain yield that are fixed in IR64, demonstrating the potential for HTP of large populations as a strategy for the second green revolution.« less

Field-based high throughput phenotyping rapidly identifies genomic regions controlling yield components in rice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tanger, Paul; Klassen, Stephen; Mojica, Julius P.

In order to ensure food security in the face of population growth, decreasing water and land for agriculture, and increasing climate variability, crop yields must increase faster than the current rates. Increased yields will require implementing novel approaches in genetic discovery and breeding. We demonstrate the potential of field-based high throughput phenotyping (HTP) on a large recombinant population of rice to identify genetic variation underlying important traits. We find that detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) with HTP phenotyping is as accurate and effective as traditional labor- intensive measures of flowering time, height, biomass, grain yield, and harvest index. Furthermore, geneticmore » mapping in this population, derived from a cross of an modern cultivar (IR64) with a landrace (Aswina), identified four alleles with negative effect on grain yield that are fixed in IR64, demonstrating the potential for HTP of large populations as a strategy for the second green revolution.« less

Internal displacement in Burma.

PubMed

Lanjouw, S; Mortimer, G; Bamforth, V

2000-09-01

The internal displacement of populations in Burma is not a new phenomenon. Displacement is caused by numerous factors. Not all of it is due to outright violence, but much is a consequence of misguided social and economic development initiatives. Efforts to consolidate the state by assimilating populations in government-controlled areas by military authorities on the one hand, while brokering cease-fires with non-state actors on the other, has uprooted civilian populations throughout the country. Very few areas in which internally displaced persons (IDPs) are found are not facing social turmoil within a climate of impunity. Humanitarian access to IDP populations remains extremely problematic. While relatively little information has been collected, assistance has been focused on targeting accessible groups. International concern within Burma has couched the problems of displacement within general development modalities, while international attention along its borders has sought to contain displacement. With the exception of several recent initiatives, few approaches have gone beyond assistance and engaged in the prevention or protection of the displaced.

Shorebird migration in the face of climate change: potential shifts in migration phenology and resource availability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stutzman, Ryan J.; Fontaine, Joseph J

2015-01-01

Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was correlated with local phenology and peaked immediately prior to peaks in invertebrate food resources. A close relationship between migrant and invertebrate phenology indicates that shorebirds may be vulnerable to changes in seasonality driven by climate change. It is possible that shifts in migrant and invertebrate phenology will be congruent in magnitude and direction, but because migration phenology is dependent on a suite of ecological factors, any response is likely to occur at a larger temporal scale and may lag behind the response of invertebrate food resources. The resulting lack of sufficient access to food at stopover habitats may cause migrants to extend migration and have cascading effects throughout their life cycle. If the heterogeneous nature of climate change results in uneven changes in phenology between migrants and their prey, it may threaten the long-term viability of migratory populations

The WASCAL high-resolution climate projection ensemble for West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunstmann, Harald; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Bliefernicht, Jan; Hamann, Ilse; Salack, Seyni

2017-04-01

With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. We perform ensemble-based regional climate simulations at a high resolution of 12km for West Africa to allow a scientifically sound derivation of climate change adaptation measures. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, our ensemble consist of three simulation experiments with the Weather Research & Forecasting Tool (WRF) and one additional experiment with the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling Model COSMO in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM). We discuss the model performance over the validation period 1980-2010, including a novel, station-based precipitation database for West Africa obtained within the WASCAL (West African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) program. Particular attention is paid to the representation of the dynamics of the West African Summer Monsoon and to the added value of our high-resolution models over existing data sets. We further present results on the climate change signal obtained for the two future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 and compare them to current state-of-the-art projections from the CORDEX-Africa project. While the temperature change signal is similar to that obtained within CORDEX-Africa, our simulations predict a wetter future for the Coast of Guinea and the southern Soudano area and a slight drying in the northernmost part of the Sahel.

Continent-Wide Climatic Variation Drives Local Adaptation in North American White Clover.

PubMed

Wright, Sara J; Cui Zhou, Daniel; Kuhle, Amy; Olsen, Kenneth M

2017-12-21

Climate-associated clines in adaptive polymorphisms are commonly cited as evidence of local adaptation within species. However, the contribution of the clinally varying trait to overall fitness is often unknown. To address this question, we examined survival, vegetative growth, and reproductive output in a central US common garden experiment using 161 genotypes of white clover (Trifolium repens L.) originating from 15 locations across North America. White clover is polymorphic for cyanogenesis (hydrogen cyanide release upon tissue damage), a chemical defense against generalist herbivores, and climate-associated cyanogenesis clines have repeatedly evolved across the species range. Over a 12-month experiment, we observed striking correlations between the population of origin and plant performance in the common garden, with climatic distance from the common garden site predicting fitness more accurately than geographic distance. Assessments of herbivore leaf damage over the 2015 growing season indicated marginally lower herbivory on cyanogenic plants; however, this effect did not result in increased fitness in the common garden location. Linear mixed modeling suggested that while cyanogenesis variation had little predictive value for vegetative growth, it is as important as climatic variation for predicting reproductive output in the central United States. Together, our findings suggest that knowledge of climate similarity, as well as knowledge of locally favored adaptive traits, will help to inform transplantation strategies for restoration ecology and other conservation efforts in the face of climate change. © The American Genetic Association 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Importance of Studying Past Extreme Floods to Prepare for Uncertain Future Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burges, S. J.

2016-12-01

Hoyt and Langbein, 1955 in their book `Floods' wrote: " ..meteorologic and hydrologic conditions will combine to produce superfloods of unprecedented magnitude. We have every reason to believe that in most rivers past floods may not be an accurate measure of ultimate flood potentialities. It is this superflood with which we are always most concerned". I provide several examples to offer some historical perspective on assessing extreme floods. In one example, flooding in the Miami Valley, OH in 1913 claimed 350 lives. The engineering and socio-economic challenges facing the Morgan Engineering Co in how to mitigate against future flood damage and loss of life when limited information was available provide guidance about ways to face an uncertain hydroclimate future, particularly one of a changed climate. A second example forces us to examine mixed flood populations and illustrates the huge uncertainty in assigning flood magnitude and exceedance probability to extreme floods in such cases. There is large uncertainty in flood frequency estimates; knowledge of the total flood hydrograph, not the peak flood flow rate alone, is what is needed for hazard mitigation assessment or design. Some challenges in estimating the complete flood hydrograph in an uncertain future climate, including demands on hydrologic models and their inputs, are addressed.

Simulating Global Climate Summits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vesperman, Dean P.; Haste, Turtle; Alrivy, Stéphane

2014-01-01

One of the most persistent and controversial issues facing the global community is climate change. With the creation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the global community established some common ground on how to address this issue. However, the last several climate summits have failed…

Flexible stocking as a strategy for enhancing ranch profitability in the face of a changing and variable climate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predicted climate change impacts include increased weather variability and increased occurrences of extreme events such as drought. Such climate changes potentially affect cattle performance as well as pasture and range productivity. These climate induced risks are often coupled with variable market...

Climate Change Challenges for Extension Educators: Technical Capacity and Cultural Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becerra, Terrie A.; Middendorf, Gerad; Campbell, Amber; Tomlinson, Peter

2016-01-01

We surveyed Extension educators in the southern Great Plains about their attitudes and beliefs regarding climate change, their interactions with constituents surrounding climate change, and challenges they face in engaging constituents on the topic of climate change. Production-oriented and sociocultural challenges in meeting constituents'…

Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler

2012-01-01

Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate Events: Foundation for a Climate Resilience Screening Index

EPA Science Inventory

The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and g...

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

2015-01-01

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate. PMID:26288363

Spatially explicit multi-threat assessment of food tree species in Burkina Faso: A fine-scale approach

PubMed Central

Kindt, Roeland; Loo, Judy; Schmidt, Marco; Bognounou, Fidèle; Da, Sié Sylvestre; Diallo, Ousmane Boukary; Ganaba, Souleymane; Gnoumou, Assan; Lompo, Djingdia; Lykke, Anne Mette; Mbayngone, Elisée; Nacoulma, Blandine Marie Ivette; Ouedraogo, Moussa; Ouédraogo, Oumarou; Parkouda, Charles; Porembski, Stefan; Savadogo, Patrice; Thiombiano, Adjima; Zerbo, Guibien; Vinceti, Barbara

2017-01-01

Over the last decades agroforestry parklands in Burkina Faso have come under increasing demographic as well as climatic pressures, which are threatening indigenous tree species that contribute substantially to income generation and nutrition in rural households. Analyzing the threats as well as the species vulnerability to them is fundamental for priority setting in conservation planning. Guided by literature and local experts we selected 16 important food tree species (Acacia macrostachya, Acacia senegal, Adansonia digitata, Annona senegalensis, Balanites aegyptiaca, Bombax costatum, Boscia senegalensis, Detarium microcarpum, Lannea microcarpa, Parkia biglobosa, Sclerocarya birrea, Strychnos spinosa, Tamarindus indica, Vitellaria paradoxa, Ximenia americana, Ziziphus mauritiana) and six key threats to them (overexploitation, overgrazing, fire, cotton production, mining and climate change). We developed a species-specific and spatially explicit approach combining freely accessible datasets, species distribution models (SDMs), climate models and expert survey results to predict, at fine scale, where these threats are likely to have the greatest impact. We find that all species face serious threats throughout much of their distribution in Burkina Faso and that climate change is predicted to be the most prevalent threat in the long term, whereas overexploitation and cotton production are the most important short-term threats. Tree populations growing in areas designated as ‘highly threatened’ due to climate change should be used as seed sources for ex situ conservation and planting in areas where future climate is predicting suitable habitats. Assisted regeneration is suggested for populations in areas where suitable habitat under future climate conditions coincides with high threat levels due to short-term threats. In the case of Vitellaria paradoxa, we suggest collecting seed along the northern margins of its distribution and considering assisted regeneration in the central part where the current threat level is high due to overexploitation. In the same way, population-specific recommendations can be derived from the individual and combined threat maps of the other 15 food tree species. The approach can be easily transferred to other countries and can be used to analyze general and species specific threats at finer and more local as well as at broader (continental) scales in order to plan more selective and efficient conservation actions in time. The concept can be applied anywhere as long as appropriate spatial data are available as well as knowledgeable experts. PMID:28880962

Spatially explicit multi-threat assessment of food tree species in Burkina Faso: A fine-scale approach.

PubMed

Gaisberger, Hannes; Kindt, Roeland; Loo, Judy; Schmidt, Marco; Bognounou, Fidèle; Da, Sié Sylvestre; Diallo, Ousmane Boukary; Ganaba, Souleymane; Gnoumou, Assan; Lompo, Djingdia; Lykke, Anne Mette; Mbayngone, Elisée; Nacoulma, Blandine Marie Ivette; Ouedraogo, Moussa; Ouédraogo, Oumarou; Parkouda, Charles; Porembski, Stefan; Savadogo, Patrice; Thiombiano, Adjima; Zerbo, Guibien; Vinceti, Barbara

2017-01-01

Over the last decades agroforestry parklands in Burkina Faso have come under increasing demographic as well as climatic pressures, which are threatening indigenous tree species that contribute substantially to income generation and nutrition in rural households. Analyzing the threats as well as the species vulnerability to them is fundamental for priority setting in conservation planning. Guided by literature and local experts we selected 16 important food tree species (Acacia macrostachya, Acacia senegal, Adansonia digitata, Annona senegalensis, Balanites aegyptiaca, Bombax costatum, Boscia senegalensis, Detarium microcarpum, Lannea microcarpa, Parkia biglobosa, Sclerocarya birrea, Strychnos spinosa, Tamarindus indica, Vitellaria paradoxa, Ximenia americana, Ziziphus mauritiana) and six key threats to them (overexploitation, overgrazing, fire, cotton production, mining and climate change). We developed a species-specific and spatially explicit approach combining freely accessible datasets, species distribution models (SDMs), climate models and expert survey results to predict, at fine scale, where these threats are likely to have the greatest impact. We find that all species face serious threats throughout much of their distribution in Burkina Faso and that climate change is predicted to be the most prevalent threat in the long term, whereas overexploitation and cotton production are the most important short-term threats. Tree populations growing in areas designated as 'highly threatened' due to climate change should be used as seed sources for ex situ conservation and planting in areas where future climate is predicting suitable habitats. Assisted regeneration is suggested for populations in areas where suitable habitat under future climate conditions coincides with high threat levels due to short-term threats. In the case of Vitellaria paradoxa, we suggest collecting seed along the northern margins of its distribution and considering assisted regeneration in the central part where the current threat level is high due to overexploitation. In the same way, population-specific recommendations can be derived from the individual and combined threat maps of the other 15 food tree species. The approach can be easily transferred to other countries and can be used to analyze general and species specific threats at finer and more local as well as at broader (continental) scales in order to plan more selective and efficient conservation actions in time. The concept can be applied anywhere as long as appropriate spatial data are available as well as knowledgeable experts.

Linking Climate Risk, Policy Networks and Adaptation Planning in Public Lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubell, M.; Schwartz, M.; Peters, C.

2014-12-01

Federal public land management agencies in the United States have engaged a variety of planning efforts to address climate adaptation. A major goal of these efforts is to build policy networks that enable land managers to access information and expertise needed for responding to local climate risks. This paper investigates whether the perceived and modeled climate risk faced by different land managers is leading to larger networks or more participating in climate adaptation. In theory, the benefits of climate planning networks are larger when land managers are facing more potential changes. The basic hypothesis is tested with a survey of public land managers from hundreds of local and regional public lands management units in the Southwestern United States, as well as other stakeholders involved with climate adaptation planning. All survey respondents report their perceptions of climate risk along a variety of dimensions, as well as their participation in climate adaptation planning and information sharing networks. For a subset of respondents, we have spatially explicity GIS data about their location, which will be linked with downscaled climate model data. With the focus on climate change, the analysis is a subset of the overall idea of linking social and ecological systems.

Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

2017-10-01

Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change. PMID:24823495

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Informal STEM Education in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chell, K.

2010-12-01

Tourism in Antarctica has increased dramatically with tens of thousands of tourists visiting the White Continent each year. Tourism cruises to Antarctica offer a unique educational experience for lay people through informal science-technology-engineering-mathematics (STEM) education. Passengers attend numerous scientific lectures that cover topics such as the geology of Antarctica, plate tectonics, glaciology, and climate change. Furthermore, tourists experience the geology and glaciology first hand during shore excursions. Currently, the grand challenges facing our global society are closely connected to the Earth sciences. Issues such as energy, climate change, water security, and natural hazards, are consistently on the legislative docket of policymakers around the world. However, the majority of the world’s population is uninformed about the role Earth sciences play in their everyday lives. Tourism in Antarctica provides opportunities for informal STEM learning and, as a result, tourists leave with a better understanding and greater appreciation for both Antarctica and Earth sciences.

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R.

2009-12-01

Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The disaster research and emergency management communities have shown over that early warnings of impending hazards need to be complemented by information on the risks actually posed by the hazards (including those resulting from low levels of preparedness), existing strategies on the ground, and likely pathways to mitigate the loss and damage in the particular context in which they arise. Effective adaptations require information for long-term infrastructural planning and as critically deliberative mechanisms to structure learning and redesign in the face of emergent problems. Adaptation tends to be reactive, unevenly distributed, and focused on coping rather than preventing problems. Reduction in vulnerability will require anticipatory deliberative processes focused on incorporating adaptation into long-term municipal and public service planning, including energy, water, and health services, in the face of changing climate-related risks combined with ongoing changes in population, land use and development patterns.

Participation Apprehensive Students: The Influence of Face Support and Instructor-Student Rapport on Classroom Participation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frisby, Brandi N.; Berger, Erin; Burchett, Molly; Herovic, Emina; Strawser, Michael G.

2014-01-01

Participation is considered a positive student classroom behavior that can also create a face-threatening classroom climate that may be alleviated through interpersonal relationships with the instructor. Participants (N?=?189) categorized as low apprehensives perceived less face threat and more face support when participating; moderate…

Spatial variability of climate change impacts on yield of rice and wheat in the Indian Ganga Basin.

PubMed

Mishra, Ashok; Singh, R; Raghuwanshi, N S; Chatterjee, C; Froebrich, Jochen

2013-12-01

Indian Ganga Basin (IGB), one of the most densely populated areas in the world, is facing a significant threat to food grain production, besides increased yield gap between actual and potential production, due to climate change. We have analyzed the spatial variability of climate change impacts on rice and wheat yields at three different locations representing the upper, middle and lower IGB. The DSSAT model is used to simulate the effects of climate variability and climate change on rice and wheat yields by analyzing: (i) spatial crop yield response to current climate, and (ii) impact of a changing climate as projected by two regional climate models, REMO and HadRM3, based on SRES A1B emission scenarios for the period 2011-2040. Results for current climate demonstrate a significant gap between actual and potential yield for upper, middle and lower IGB stations. The analysis based on RCM projections shows that during 2011-2040, the largest reduction in rice and wheat yields will occur in the upper IGB (reduction of potential rice and wheat yield respectively by 43.2% and 20.9% by REMO, and 24.8% and 17.2% by HadRM3). In the lower IGB, however, contrasting results are obtained, with HadRM3 based projections showing an increase in the potential rice and wheat yields, whereas, REMO based projections show decreased potential yields. We discuss the influence of agro-climatic factors; variation in temperature, length of maturity period and leaf area index which are responsible for modeled spatial variability in crop yield response within the IGB. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA accessible to a broader audience.

Relating Climate and Enviornmental Stress to Conflict... or Cooperation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, C. P.

2016-12-01

There are many factors which contribute to social unrest, including governance, economy, access to resources and others. As global climate change progresses, many regions and nations, particularly those that are most vulnerable and least resilient, will face increasing challenges with respect to water and food scarcity. Increasing population and demand for water, combined with declining access to groundwater, will greatly increase exisiting vulnerability. Syria, Yemen and other countries serve as examples of nations that have experienced increasing both environmental stress and conflict. The Syria case in particular has had clear global repercussions, most notably contributing to a global refugee crisis. However, there are also examples of nations that have experienced increasing environmental stress that instead demonstrated transboundary water cooperation rather than conflict. An important and emerging body of work is that which seeks to better understand and characterize real-time resilience and vulnerability in order to better mitigate the consequences of future regional climate change. Prediction of potential conflict is a formidable challenge, one that is highly complex and multivariate, operating on many different temporal and spatial scales.

Exposure of coastal built assets in the South Pacific to climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2015-11-01

Pacific island countries (PICs) are situated in a highly dynamic ocean-atmosphere interface, are dispersed over a large ocean area, and have highly populated urban centres located on the coastal margin. The built infrastructure associated with urban centres is also located within close proximity to the coastlines, exposing such infrastructure to a variety of natural and climate change-related hazards. In this research we undertake a comprehensive analysis of the exposure of built infrastructure assets to climate risk for 12 PICs. We show that 57% of the assessed built infrastructure for the 12 PICs is located within 500 m of their coastlines, amounting to a total replacement value of US$21.9 billion. Eight of the 12 PICs have 50% or more of their built infrastructure located within 500 m of their coastlines. In particular, Kiribati, Marshall Islands and Tuvalu have over 95% of their built infrastructure located within 500 m of their coastlines. Coastal adaptation costs will require substantial financial resources, which may not be available in developing countries such as the PICs, leaving them to face very high impacts but lacking the adaptive capacity.

Planning and Design of Water Resources Systems Under Climate Change and Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K. M.

2014-12-01

Regional and local water supplies and demands are impacted by global and national systems: climate, economics, population and energy as well as policies: development, energy, and environmental. These drivers can result in complex interactions that require deeper understanding in order to provide actionable information for water planners and stakeholders to develop strategic plans in the face of a changing and growing world. To add more complexity to this issue is the fact that all these drivers are uncertain and the type of uncertainty is not the same. This talk will address approaches to Water Resource Planning at sub-national water regions, national levels and trans-boundary river basins under a non-stationary hydro-climatic future. Additionally the talk will address the design of specific water resource projects such as reservoirs and hydroplants that are being designed now but will operate far in the future when the hydro-climatology will be very different. Examples will be drawn from recent work in Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and North America and some insights and outstanding questions will be presented.

The Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)) target diseases in face of climate change.

PubMed

Yang, Guo-Jing; Utzinger, Jürg; Lv, Shan; Qian, Ying-Jun; Li, Shi-Zhu; Wang, Qiang; Bergquist, Robert; Vounatsou, Penelope; Li, Wei; Yang, Kun; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2010-01-01

Climate change-according to conventional wisdom-will result in an expansion of tropical parasitic diseases in terms of latitude and altitude, with vector-borne diseases particularly prone to change. However, although a significant rise in temperature occurred over the past century, there is little empirical evidence whether climate change has indeed favoured infectious diseases. This might be explained by the complex relationship between climate change and the frequency and the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, which is characterised by nonlinear associations and countless other complex factors governing the distribution of infectious diseases. Here, we explore whether and how climate change might impact on diseases targeted by the Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)). We start our review with a short summary of the current evidence-base how climate change affects the distribution of infectious diseases. Next, we introduce biology-based models for predicting the distribution of infectious diseases in a future, warmer world. Two case studies are presented: the classical RNAS(+) disease schistosomiasis and an emerging disease, angiostrongyliasis, focussing on their occurrences in the People's Republic of China. Strengths and limitations of current models for predicting the impact of climate change on infectious diseases are discussed, and we propose model extensions to include social and ecological factors. Finally, we recommend that mitigation and adaptation strategies to diminish potential negative effects of climate change need to be developed in concert with key stakeholders so that surveillance and early-warning systems can be strengthened and the most vulnerable population groups protected. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How do temperate bryophytes face the challenge of a changing environment? Lessons from the past and predictions for the future.

PubMed

Désamoré, Aurélie; Laenen, Benjamin; Stech, Michael; Papp, Beata; Hedenäs, Lars; Mateo, Ruben G; Vanderpoorten, Alain

2012-09-01

Bryophytes are a group of early land plants, whose specific ecophysiological and biological features, including poikilohydry, sensitivity to moderately high temperature and high dispersal ability, make them ideal candidates for investigating the impact of climate changes. Employing a combined approach of species distribution modelling (SDM) and molecular phylogeography in the temperate moss Homalothecium sericeum, we explore the significance of the Mediterranean refugia, contrasting the southern and northern refugia hypotheses, determine the extent to which recolonization of previously glaciated areas has been facilitated by the high dispersal ability of the species and make predictions on the extent to which it will be impacted by ongoing climate change. The Mediterranean areas exhibit the highest nucleotidic diversities and host a mixture of ancestral, endemic and more recently derived haplotypes. Extra-Mediterranean areas exhibit low genetic diversities and Euro-Siberian populations display a significant signal of expansion that is identified to be of Euro-Siberian origin, pointing to the northern refugia hypothesis. The SDMs predict a global net increase in range size owing to ongoing climate change, but substantial range reductions in southern areas. Presence of a significant phylogeographical signal at different spatial scales suggests, however, that dispersal limitations might constitute, as opposed to the traditional view of spore-producing plants as efficient dispersers, a constraint for migration. This casts doubts about the ability of the species to face the massive extinctions predicted in the southern areas, threatening their status of reservoir of genetic diversity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremades, R.; Surminski, S.; Máñez Costa, M.; Hudson, P.; Shrivastava, P.; Gascoigne, J.

2018-01-01

Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.

Changes in the range of the medicinal herb Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) under climate change.

PubMed

Xie, Y-F; Yang, L; Deng, R-Y; Chen, M-H; Luan, X-F; Gottardi, E; Zhang, Z-X

2018-07-01

Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) is one of the most common and least expensive herbal medicines for eye disease. This species is facing potential threats from climate change. Insufficient biogeographic knowledge of this plant species can hinder its effective management for long-term population survival. We integrated ecological niche modelling (Biomod2) with 70 records of E. buergerianum and eight environmental variables to estimate changes in distribution over time. A core area Zonation algorithm was introduced to identify conservation priority areas. Our results indicate that the range of E. buergerianum will likely decrease in the future: the overall range change on average is -44.36 ± 21.56% (-3.70% to -77.73%); values of range loss and range gain are 45.79 ± 20.30% (9.29-78.19%) and 1.43 ± 1.53% (0.18-5.59%), respectively. According to conservation priority analysis, the mandatory reserve (top 5%), negotiable reserve (0.95-0.9) and partial reserve (0.9-0.8) areas are 19,799, 19,799 and 39,597 km 2 , respectively. The areas identified as conservation priority are located in the southeast, especially in northern Taiwan and the Wuyi Mountains. Based on these results, we suggest a re-evaluation of the threatened status of this species, with a potential upgrade to the vulnerable (VU) category. To overcome the adverse conditions faced by populations of E. buergerianum in China, we propose a multi-faceted conservation strategy involving more complete resource assessment, a monitoring system, medical research focused on revealing medicinal components or substitutes, and a regional development plan that considers both wildlife and socio-economic issues. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010.

PubMed

Mauck, Robert A; Dearborn, Donald C; Huntington, Charles E

2018-04-01

The salient feature of anthropogenic climate change over the last century has been the rise in global mean temperature. However, global mean temperature is not used as an explanatory variable in studies of population-level response to climate change, perhaps because the signal-to-noise ratio of this gross measure makes its effect difficult to detect in any but the longest of datasets. Using a population of Leach's storm-petrels breeding in the Bay of Fundy, we tested whether local, regional, or global temperature measures are the best index of reproductive success in the face of climate change in species that travel widely between and within seasons. With a 56-year dataset, we found that annual global mean temperature (AGMT) was the single most important predictor of hatching success, more so than regional sea surface temperatures (breeding season or winter) and local air temperatures at the nesting colony. Storm-petrel reproductive success showed a quadratic response to rising temperatures, in that hatching success increased up to some critical temperature, and then declined when AGMT exceeded that temperature. The year at which AGMT began to consistently exceed that critical temperature was 1988. Importantly, in this population of known-age individuals, the impact of changing climate was greatest on inexperienced breeders: reproductive success of inexperienced birds increased more rapidly as temperatures rose and declined more rapidly after the tipping point than did reproductive success of experienced individuals. The generality of our finding that AGMT is the best predictor of reproductive success in this system may hinge on two things. First, an integrative global measure may be best for species in which individuals move across an enormous spatial range, especially within seasons. Second, the length of our dataset and our capacity to account for individual- and age-based variation in reproductive success increase our ability to detect a noisy signal. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Creating a Collaborative Conservation Vision in the Face of Climate Change Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athearn, N.; Schlafmann, D.

2015-12-01

The 22 Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) form a "network of networks," each defined by the characteristics of its ecoregion and its unique community of conservation managers, practitioners, and scientists. As self-directed partnerships, LCCs are strongly influenced not only by the landscape but by the evolving cultures and values that define the multi-faceted relationships between people and place. LCCs maintain an ecologically connected network across these diverse landscapes by transcending borders and leveraging resources. Natural resource managers are challenged to make decisions in the face of multiple uncertainties, and several partners across the network have recognized that climate change is one important uncertainty that spans boundaries - both across the conservation community and beyond. The impacts of climate change across the LCC Network are likely to be as diverse as the network itself - manifesting as, for example, sea level rise, ocean acidification, loss of sea ice, and shifts in climate patterns and timing - but synergies are being leveraged within and between LCCs and national climate-focused programs to systematically address the needs of the network to support a collaborative conservation vision that addresses multiple landscape-scale stressors in the face of climate uncertainties. This vision is being achieved by leveraging the convening power of the LCCs and collaborating with DOI Climate Science Centers and others. Selected case studies will demonstrate how the network finds strength in its differences, but also reveals powerful collaborative opportunities through integrated science, shared conservation strategies, and strategic approaches for translating targeted science to conservation action. These examples exemplify past successes as well as ongoing efforts as the network continues to bring about effective application of climate science to achieve conservation outcomes across the LCC Network in an uncertain future climate.

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions for the European region in the past millennium (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, E.

2009-12-01

One of the objectives when comparing simulations of past climates to proxy-based climate reconstructions is to asses the skill of climate models to simulate climate change. This comparison may accomplished at large spatial scales, for instance the evolution of simulated and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature, or at regional or point scales. In both approaches a 'fair' comparison has to take into account different aspects that affect the inevitable uncertainties and biases in the simulations and in the reconstructions. These efforts face a trade-off: climate models are believed to be more skillful at large hemispheric scales, but climate reconstructions are these scales are burdened by the spatial distribution of available proxies and by methodological issues surrounding the statistical method used to translate the proxy information into large-spatial averages. Furthermore, the internal climatic noise at large hemispheric scales is low, so that the sampling uncertainty tends to be also low. On the other hand, the skill of climate models at regional scales is limited by the coarse spatial resolution, which hinders a faithful representation of aspects important for the regional climate. At small spatial scales, the reconstruction of past climate probably faces less methodological problems if information from different proxies is available. The internal climatic variability at regional scales is, however, high. In this contribution some examples of the different issues faced when comparing simulation and reconstructions at small spatial scales in the past millennium are discussed. These examples comprise reconstructions from dendrochronological data and from historical documentary data in Europe and climate simulations with global and regional models. These examples indicate that the centennial climate variations can offer a reasonable target to assess the skill of global climate models and of proxy-based reconstructions, even at small spatial scales. However, as the focus shifts towards higher frequency variability, decadal or multidecadal, the need for larger simulation ensembles becomes more evident. Nevertheless,the comparison at these time scales may expose some lines of research on the origin of multidecadal regional climate variability.

Is this what you need? Direct feedback help climate change information exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.; Brown, M.; Gough, M.; Basin, D.

2015-12-01

The combination of projected climate change and land use adds uncertainty to the long-term effectiveness of current management strategies. Managers need reliable information to adjust their strategies as population density increases. However they are currently overwhelmed by the diversity of available information and the multiplicity of sources. CBI's goal is to centralize and package effectively the usable information for land managers and for the general public in order to increase awareness and promote preparation for the challenges ahead. We are designing conservation planning atlases in Data Basin for a number of landscape conservation cooperatives to address this need. We are adding some user-friendly tools to specifically serve the available climate projections and land use data in a meaningful way. By working closely with a group of managers, our goal is to understand how consideration of these projections figures into the decision-making process and refine the ways we can deliver relevant metrics. We have been holding interviews to gather information and critical feedback on existing climate-related web pages and tools, providing us with benchmarks for improvement. As it turned out, the student-manager dialogue added a component of climate change education and awareness of available tools to the project. Through an iterative process we plan to continue this exchange and address the variety of issues managers continually have to face to maintain healthy ecosystems.

Western water and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2015-01-01

In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Perceptions of climate-related risk among water sector professionals in Africa-Insights from the 2016 African Water Association Congress.

PubMed

Connolly, Katherine; Mbutu, Mwaura; Bartram, Jamie; Fuente, David

2018-06-01

The ability of water and wastewater utilities to provide safe and reliable water and sanitation services now and in the future will be determined, in part, by their resilience to climate change. Investment in infrastructure, planning, and operational practices that increase resilience are affected, in turn, by how water sector professionals perceive the risks posed to utilities by climate change and its related impacts. We surveyed water sector professionals at the 2016 African Water Association's Congress in Nairobi, Kenya to assess their perceptions of climate-specific and general risks that may disrupt utility service. We find that water sector professionals are most concerned about climate-specific and general risks that affect utility water supplies (quantity), followed by adequacy of utility infrastructure. We also find that professionals tend to rank climate-specific risks as less concerning than general risks facing utilities. Furthermore, non-utility professionals are more concerned about climate-specific risks and climate change in general than utility professionals. These findings highlight the multiple, competing risks utilities face and the need for adaptation strategies that simultaneously address climate-specific and general concerns of utilities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Professional Development: Design, Implementation, and Initial Outcomes on Teacher Learning, Practice, and Student Beliefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, Nicole A.; Mouza, Chrystalla; Drewes, Andrea

2016-04-01

In this work, we present the design, implementation, and initial outcomes of the Climate Academy, a hybrid professional development program delivered through a combination of face-to-face and online interactions, intended to prepare formal and informal science teachers (grades 5-16) in teaching about climate change. The Climate Academy was designed around core elements of successful environmental professional development programs and aligned with practices advocated in benchmarked science standards. Data were collected from multiple sources including observations of professional development events, participants' reflections on their learning, and collection of instructional units designed during the Academy. Data were also collected from a focal case study teacher in a middle school setting. Case study data included classroom observations, teacher interviews, and student beliefs toward climate change. Results indicated that the Climate Academy fostered increased learning among participants of both climate science content and pedagogical strategies for teaching about climate change. Additionally, results indicated that participants applied their new learning in the design of climate change instructional units. Finally, results from the case study indicated positive impacts on student beliefs and greater awareness about climate change. Results have implications for the design of professional development programs on climate change, a topic included for the first time in national standards.

Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal).

PubMed

Rafael, S; Martins, H; Marta-Almeida, M; Sá, E; Coelho, S; Rocha, A; Borrego, C; Lopes, M

2017-05-01

Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were applied for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Horton, Daniel E

2018-05-26

Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact-relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude-, frequency-, and severity-based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single-model multirealization ensembles. Under a high-emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency- and severity-based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude-based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity-based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude- and frequency-based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact-relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well-before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme-metric and domain-type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty-first century radiative forcing. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the Water-Food Nexus: an Optimization Approach for Water and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortada, Sarah; Abou Najm, Majdi; Yassine, Ali; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem

2016-04-01

Water and food security is facing increased challenges with population increase, climate and land use change, as well as resource depletion coupled with pollution and unsustainable practices. Coordinated and effective management of limited natural resources have become an imperative to meet these challenges by optimizing the usage of resources under various constraints. In this study, an optimization model is developed for optimal resource allocation towards sustainable water and food security under nutritional, socio-economic, agricultural, environmental, and natural resources constraints. The core objective of this model is to maximize the composite water-food security status by recommending an optimal water and agricultural strategy. The model balances between the healthy nutritional demand side and the constrained supply side while considering the supply chain in between. It equally ensures that the population achieves recommended nutritional guidelines and population food-preferences by quantifying an optimum agricultural and water policy through transforming optimum food demands into optimum cropping policy given the water and land footprints of each crop or agricultural product. Through this process, water and food security are optimized considering factors that include crop-food transformation (food processing), water footprints, crop yields, climate, blue and green water resources, irrigation efficiency, arable land resources, soil texture, and economic policies. The model performance regarding agricultural practices and sustainable food and water security was successfully tested and verified both at a hypothetical and pilot scale levels.

Mental health risk and resilience among climate scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayton, Susan

2018-04-01

Awareness of the threats to mental health posed by climate change leads to questions about the potential impacts on climate scientists because they are immersed in depressing information and may face apathy, denial and even hostility from others. But they also have sources of resilience.

Managing fish and wildlife habitat in the face of climate change: USDA Forest Service perspective

Treesearch

Gregory D. Hayward; Curtis H. Flather; Erin Uloth; Hugh D. Safford; David A. Cleaves

2009-01-01

The spatial and temporal scope of environmental change anticipated during the next century as a result of climate change presents unprecedented challenges for fish and wildlife management. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) suggested impacts from climate change on natural systems will be more grave than earlier...

Lichen communities and species indicate climate thresholds in southeast and south-central Alaska, USA

Treesearch

Heather T. Root; Bruce McCune; Sarah Jovan

2014-01-01

Because of their unique physiology, lichen communities are highly sensitive to climatic conditions,making them ideal bioindicators for climate change. Southeast and south-central Alaska host diverse and abundant lichen communities and are faced with a more rapidly changing climate than many more southerly latitudes. We develop sensitive lichen-based indicators for...

Professional Development Design Considerations in Climate Change Education: Teacher Enactment and Student Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drewes, Andrea; Henderson, Joseph; Mouza, Chrystalla

2018-01-01

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing society, and climate change educational models are emerging in response. This study investigates the implementation and enactment of a climate change professional development (PD) model for science educators and its impact on student learning. Using an intrinsic case study methodology,…

Western Australian High School Students' Understandings about the Socioscientific Issue of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawson, Vaille

2015-01-01

Climate change is one of the most significant science issues facing humanity; yet, teaching students about climate change is challenging: not only is it multidisciplinary, but also it is contentious and debated in political, social and media forums. Students need to be equipped with an understanding of climate change science to be able to…

Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change

Treesearch

Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Michael C. Dietze

2008-01-01

As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of the current climate often assuming some dispersal lag. One major caveat with this approach is that it ignores the...

More harmful climate change impacts in polluted forests – a review

Treesearch

E Paoletti; NE Grulke; A Bytnerowicz

2009-01-01

Forests are facing significant pressures from climate change and air pollution. Air pollution is the main driver of the ongoing climate change. Current knowledge suggests that climate change may become more harmful to pollution-affected forests, although the magnitude of these feedbacks is still to be determined. At present, the air pollutants of most concern to...

Climate change and the possible health effects on older Australians.

PubMed

Saniotis, Arthur; Irvine, Rod

2010-01-01

Climate change is an important issue for Australia. Climate change research forecasts that Australia will experience accelerated warming due to anthrogenic activities. Australia's aging society will face special challenges that demand current attention. This paper discusses two issues in relation to climate change and older Australians: first, pharmacology and autoregulation; and second, mental health among older Australians.

“My Flying Machine Was Out Of Order”

PubMed Central

Lindberg, Donald A. B.; Howe, Sally E.

2009-01-01

Why did the founders of this organization—which was established in 1884 as the American Climatological Association—want to study climatology and respiratory diseases? In particular, where did the idea of treating tuberculosis with pure air and sunlight come from? How effective was this treatment for a disease that in 1880 afflicted a third of the population of Colorado? Why did this Association not acknowledge technological advances such as weather forecasting or large 20th century population movements? This paper seeks to answer those questions in order to inform the Association's possible study of the effects of global climate change on human health, an issue that is arguably comparable to what the founders faced. Recent governmental reports suggest that the medical and health care communities have not yet become engaged. If the ACCA does not, then who will? PMID:19768167

[Climate changes, floods, and health consequences].

PubMed

Michelozzi, Paola; de' Donato, Francesca

2014-02-01

In the European Region, floods are the most common natural disaster, causing extensive damage and disruption. In Italy, it has been estimated that over 68% of municipalities are at high hydrogeological risk and with the recent intense rainfall events local populations have been facing severe disruptions. The health consequences of floods are wide ranging and are dependent upon the vulnerability of the environment and the local population. Health effects can be a direct or indirect consequence of flooding. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, heart attacks, injuries and hypothermia. The indirect effects include, injuries and infections, water-borne infectious disease, mental health problems, respiratory disease and allergies in both the medium and long term after a flood. Future efforts should be addressed to integrate health preparedness and prevention measures into emergency flood plans and hydrological warning systems.

There's an Elephant in the Room! How Talking Around Climate Can Be More Effective Than Talking About Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, M.; Rockwell, A.

2014-12-01

Conversations about climate change can easily devolve into polarization and political finger-pointing, where there should be a civilized discussion and enthusiastic brainstorming. How can we change the pugilistic back into the personable? We will examine some examples of reinstating dialogue in various settings, drawing on our experiences working with the public, students and educators in our visitor centers and public areas at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), as well as using off-the-clock opportunities to communicate about our work in social and other informal settings. We will share lessons about what works and what doesn't when communicating about climate online and offline, and the differences in discussions that occur in virtual, digital settings and face-to-face.

Climate change and Australian agriculture: a review of the threats facing rural communities and the health policy landscape.

PubMed

Hanna, Elizabeth G; Bell, Erica; King, Debra; Woodruff, Rosalie

2011-03-01

Population health is a function of social and environmental health determinants. Climate change is predicted to bring significant alterations to ecological systems on which human health and livelihoods depend; the air, water, plant, and animal health. Agricultural systems are intrinsically linked with environmental conditions, which are already under threat in much of southern Australian because of rising heat and protracted drying. The direct impact of increasing heat waves on human physiology and survival has recently been well studied. More diffusely, increasing drought periods may challenge the viability of agriculture in some regions, and hence those communities that depend on primary production. A worst case scenario may herald the collapse of some communities. Human health impacts arising from such transition would be profound. This article summarizes existing rural health challenges and presents the current evidence plus future predictions of climate change impacts on Australian agriculture to argue the need for significant augmentation of public health and existing health policy frameworks. The article concludes by suggesting that adaptation to climate change requires planning for worst case scenario outcomes to avert catastrophic impacts on rural communities. This will involve national policy planning as much as regional-level leadership for rapid development of adaptive strategies in agriculture and other key areas of rural communities.

Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

PubMed

Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

2016-04-01

Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment for the hydrological system in the Vu Gia- Thu Bon River Basin.

PubMed

Tra, Tran Van; Thinh, Nguyen Xuan; Greiving, Stefan

2018-07-15

Vu Gia- Thu Bon (VGTB) River Basin, located in the Central Coastal zone of Viet Nam currently faces water shortage. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the challenge. Therefore, there is a need to study the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the river basin. The study adopts a combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment to address the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the VGTB River Basin. A MIKE BASIN water balance model for the river basin was established to simulate the response of the hydrological system. Simulations were performed through parametrically varying temperature and precipitation to determine the vulnerability space of water shortage. General Circulation Models (GCMs) were then utilized to provide climate projections for the river basin. The output from GCMs was then mapped onto the vulnerability space determined earlier. In total, 9 out of 55 water demand nodes in the simulation are expected to face problematic conditions as future climate changes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Stodola, K.W.; Cooper, R.J.

2011-01-01

The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Environment, migration and the European demographic deficit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, Sarah

2012-03-01

Many countries in the more developed world, and some in the less developed, are facing new economic and social pressures associated with the ageing of their populations. Europe, in particular, is forecast to have a demographic deficit, which may be alleviated by in-migration to the region. However, several commentators have proposed that Europe will not be able to successfully compete with other regions, in particular Asia, in the coming years for the skills it will require. This letter explores these themes, arguing that climate change will increase the attractiveness of Europe as a destination of economic choice for future skilled workers, to the detriment of more environmentally challenged regions.

A synthesis of ecological and fish-community changes in Lake Ontario, 1970-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, E.L.; Casselman, J.M.; Dermott, R.; Fitzsimons, J.D.; Gal, G.; Holeck, K. T.; Hoyle, J.A.; Johannsson, O.E.; Lantry, B.F.; Makarewicz, J.C.; Millard, E.S.; Munawar, I.F.; Munawar, M.; O'Gorman, R.; Owens, R.W.; Rudstam, L. G.; Schaner, T.; Stewart, T.J.

2005-01-01

We assessed stressors associated with ecological and fishcommunity changes in Lake Ontario since 1970, when the first symposium on Salmonid Communities in Oligotrophic Lakes (SCOL I) was held (J. Fish. Res. Board Can. 29: 613-616). Phosphorus controls implemented in the early 1970s were undeniably successful; lower food-web studies showed declines in algal abundance and epilimnetic zooplankton production and a shift in pelagic primary productivity toward smaller organisms. Stressors on the fish community prior to 1970 such as exploitation, sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) predation, and effects of nuisance populations of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) were largely ameliorated by the 1990s. The alewife became a pivotal species supporting a multi-million-dollar salmonid sport fishery, but alewife-induced thiamine deficiency continued to hamper restoration and sustainability of native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush). Expanding salmonine populations dependent on alewife raised concerns about predator demand and prey supply, leading to reductions in salmonine stocking in the early 1990s. Relaxation of the predation impact by alewives and their shift to deeper water allowed recovery of native fishes such as threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides). The return of the Lake Ontario ecosystem to historical conditions has been impeded by unplanned introductions. Establishment of Dreissena spp. led to increased water clarity and increased vectoring of lower trophic-level production to benthic habitats and contributed to the collapse of Diporeia spp. populations, behavioral modifications of key fish species, and the decline of native lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis). Despite reduced productivity, exotic-species introductions, and changes in the fish community, offshore Mysis relicta populations remained relatively stable. The effects of climate and climate change on the population abundance and dynamics of Lake Ontario fish were unknown at the time of SCOL I, but a temperature-time series begun in the late 1950s in the Kingston Basin has since provided evidence of climate warming and associated fish-community changes. We should expect ecological surprises in the coming decades that will challenge scientists and fishery managers especially as they face new exotic species, climate warming, and escalating stakeholder demands on the resource. Continuous long-term ecological studies were critical for interpreting changes in Lake Ontario's fish community over the past three decades and will be essential in the future for both scientific understanding and management of the fishery.

Slow Response or No Response? Distinguishing Non-Climatic Range Limits from Demographic Inertia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillerislambers, J.; Anderegg, L. D. L.; Breckheimer, I.; Ford, K.; Kroiss, S.

2016-12-01

One of the greatest challenges ecologists face is forecasting how species distributions will respond to climate change. In general, species distributions have moved polewards and upslope with recent climate change (i.e. range shifts), supporting the assumption that range limits are climatically determined. However, studies also document a surprising number of species whose distributions have remained unchanged in the last 50-100 years, despite significant warming during that time period. This apparent lack of response to warming can arise for species whose range limits are determined by factors other than climate (e.g. species interactions) OR for long-lived, slow-growing, and/or dispersal-limited species whose range shifts are unable to keep pace with rapid climate change. Unfortunately, while these two possibilities are often difficult to distinguish, they have very different implications for the long-term viability of the species in question. Here, we use extensive demographic data for long-lived and slow-growing conifers collected across a large climatic gradient at Mount Rainier (WA, USA) to explore A) evidence for climatically determined range limits and B) the rate at which altitudinal distributions could shift in response to climate change in the region. In doing so, we highlight some of the complications we face in identifying whether species will be sensitive or resilient to climate change.

More efficient irrigation may compensate for increases in irrigation water requirements due to climate change in the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, Marianela; Shi, Sinan; von Bloh, Werner; Bondeau, Alberte; Cramer, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. We will present a recently published study1 that estimates the current level of water demand for Mediterranean agriculture and simulates the potential impacts of climate change, population growth and transitions to water-saving irrigation and conveyance technologies. The results indicate that, at present, Mediterranean region could save 35% of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems, with large differences in the saving potentials across countries. Under climate change, more efficient irrigation is of vital importance for counteracting increases in irrigation water requirements. The Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4% and 18% from climate change alone by the end of the century if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved. Population growth increases these numbers to 22% and 74%, respectively, affecting mainly the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have large water saving potentials, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean. Both the Eastern and the Southern Mediterranean would need around 35% more water than today if they could afford some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect. However, in some scenarios water scarcity may constrain the supply of the irrigation water needed in future in Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain. In this study, vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL ("Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land") after a large development2 that comprised the improved representation of Mediterranean crops.

Primary care team communication networks, team climate, quality of care, and medical costs for patients with diabetes: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Mundt, Marlon P; Agneessens, Filip; Tuan, Wen-Jan; Zakletskaia, Larissa I; Kamnetz, Sandra A; Gilchrist, Valerie J

2016-06-01

Primary care teams play an important role in providing the best quality of care to patients with diabetes. Little evidence is available on how team communication networks and team climate contribute to high quality diabetes care. To determine whether primary care team communication and team climate are associated with health outcomes, health care utilization, and associated costs for patients with diabetes. A cross-sectional survey of primary care team members collected information on frequency of communication with other care team members about patient care and on team climate. Patient outcomes (glycemic, cholesterol, and blood pressure control, urgent care visits, emergency department visits, hospital visit days, medical costs) in the past 12 months for team diabetes patient panels were extracted from the electronic health record. The data were analyzed using nested (clinic/team/patient) generalized linear mixed modeling. 155 health professionals at 6 U.S. primary care clinics participated from May through December 2013. Primary care teams with a greater number of daily face-to-face communication ties among team members were associated with 52% (rate ratio=0.48, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.94) fewer hospital days and US$1220 (95% CI: -US$2416, -US$24) lower health-care costs per team diabetes patient in the past 12 months. In contrast, for each additional registered nurse (RN) who reported frequent daily face-to-face communication about patient care with the primary care practitioner (PCP), team diabetes patients had less-controlled HbA1c (Odds ratio=0.83, 95% CI: 0.66, 0.99), increased hospital days (RR=1.57, 95% CI: 1.10, 2.03), and higher healthcare costs (β=US$877, 95% CI: US$42, US$1713). Shared team vision, a measure of team climate, significantly mediated the relationship between team communication and patient outcomes. Primary care teams which relied on frequent daily face-to-face communication among more team members, and had a single RN communicating patient care information to the PCP, had greater shared team vision, better patient outcomes, and lower medical costs for their diabetes patient panels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Primary care team communication networks, team climate, quality of care, and medical costs for patients with diabetes: A cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Mundt, Marlon P.; Agneessens, Filip; Tuan, Wen-Jan; Zakletskaia, Larissa I.; Kamnetz, Sandra A.; Gilchrist, Valerie J.

2016-01-01

Background Primary care teams play an important role in providing the best quality of care to patients with diabetes. Little evidence is available on how team communication networks and team climate contribute to high quality diabetes care. Objective To determine whether primary care team communication and team climate are associated with health outcomes, health care utilization, and associated costs for patients with diabetes. Methods A cross-sectional survey of primary care team members collected information on frequency of communication with other care team members about patient care and on team climate. Patient outcomes (glycemic, cholesterol, and blood pressure control, urgent care visits, emergency department visits, hospital visit days, medical costs) in the past 12 months for team diabetes patient panels were extracted from the electronic health record. The data were analyzed using nested (clinic/team/patient) generalized linear mixed modeling. Participants 155 health professionals at 6 U.S. primary care clinics participated from May through December 2013. Results Primary care teams with a greater number of daily face-to-face communication ties among team members were associated with 52% (Rate Ratio=0.48, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.94) fewer hospital days and US$1220 (95% CI: -US$2416, -US$24) lower health-care costs per team diabetes patient in the past 12 months. In contrast, for each additional registered nurse (RN) who reported frequent daily face-to-face communication about patient care with the primary care practitioner (PCP), team diabetes patients had less-controlled HbA1c (Odds Ratio=0.83, 95% CI: 0.66, 0.99), increased hospital days (RR=1.57, 95% CI: 1.10, 2.03), and higher healthcare costs (β=US$877, 95% CI: US$42, US$1713). Shared team vision, a measure of team climate, significantly mediated the relationship between team communication and patient outcomes. Conclusions Primary care teams which relied on frequent daily face-to-face communication among more team members, and had a single RN communicating patient care information to the PCP, had greater shared team vision, better patient outcomes, and lower medical costs for their diabetes patient panels. PMID:27087293

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

PubMed

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-10-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Exploring the School Climate--Student Achievement Connection: Making Sense of Why the First Precedes the Second

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Albert; Shindler, John

2016-01-01

Many educators view school climate and student achievement as separate considerations. For some, the idea of promoting a high quality climate can seem like a luxury in the face of the current high stakes assessment climate in which student achievement gains are the paramount consideration. However, the results of this study suggest that climate…

Assessing Student Knowledge of Chemistry and Climate Science Concepts Associated with Climate Change: Resources to Inform Teaching and Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Versprille, Ashley; Zabih, Adam; Holme, Thomas A.; McKenzie, Lallie; Mahaffy, Peter; Martin, Brian; Towns, Marcy

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most critical problems facing citizens today. Chemistry faculty are presented with the problem of making general chemistry content simultaneously relevant and interesting. Using climate science to teach chemistry allows faculty to help students learn chemistry content in a rich context. Concepts related to…

Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning about Climate Change--The Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially…

A Culturally Relevant Teacher Professional Development for Teaching Climate Change to Native American Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kern, Anne Liu; Honwad, Sameer; McLain, Ed

2017-01-01

The science of climate change is a complex subject to teach. Teachers find climate change a challenging topic to teach due to a myriad of reasons. Gayford, 2010 describes some of the challenges teachers face while teaching climate change science as "first, the controversial nature of the topic; second, it does not relate well to the normal…

National Security and Global Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

The uncertainty, confusion, and speculation about the causes, effects, and implications of global climate change (GCC) often paralyze serious...against scientific indications of global climate change , but to consider how it would pose challenges to national security, explore options for facing...generals and admirals, released a report concluding that projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security. This article

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid.

PubMed

Sletvold, Nina; Dahlgren, Johan P; Oien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Ehrlén, Johan

2013-09-01

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Co-digestion of rice straw and cow dung to supply cooking fuel and fertilizers in rural India: Impact on human health, resource flows and climate change.

PubMed

Sfez, Sophie; De Meester, Steven; Dewulf, Jo

2017-12-31

Anaerobic digestion of cow dung with new feedstock such as crop residues to increase the biogas potential is an option to help overcoming several issues faced by India. Anaerobic digestion provides biogas that can replace biomass cooking fuels and reduce indoor air pollution. It also provides digestate, a fertilizer that can contribute to compensate nutrient shortage on agricultural land. Moreover, it avoids the burning of rice straw in the fields which contributes to air pollution in India and climate change globally. Not only the technical and economical feasibility but also the environmental sustainability of such systems needs to be assessed. The potential effects of implementing community digesters co-digesting cow dung and rice straw on carbon and nutrients flows, human health, resource efficiency and climate change are analyzed by conducting a Substance Flow Analysis and a Life Cycle Assessment. The implementation of the technology is considered at the level of the state of Chhattisgarh. Implementing this scenario reduces the dependency of the rural community to nitrogen and phosphorus from synthetic fertilizers only by 0.1 and 1.6%, respectively, but the dependency of farmers to potassium from synthetic fertilizers by 31%. The prospective scenario returns more organic carbon to agricultural land and thus has a potential positive effect on soil quality. The implementation of the prospective scenario can reduce the health impact of the local population by 48%, increase the resource efficiency of the system by 60% and lower the impact on climate change by 13%. This study highlights the large potential of anaerobic digestion to overcome the aforementioned issues faced by India. It demonstrates the need to couple local and global assessments and to conduct analyses at the substance level to assess the sustainability of such systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

2014-12-01

The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the level of uncertainty surrounding the influence that natural and anthropogenic systems have on wildfire.

What health professionals should know about the health effects of air pollution and climate change on children and pregnant mothers

PubMed Central

Poursafa, Parinaz; Kelishadi, Roya

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Health professionals face the adverse health effects of climate change and air pollution in their practices. This review underscores the effects of these environmental factors on maternal and children's health, as the most vulnerable groups to climate change and air pollution. METHODS: We reviewed electronic databases for a search of the literature to find relevant studies published in English from 1990 to 2011. RESULTS: Environmental factors, notably climate change and air pollution influence children's health before conception and continue during pregnancy, childhood, and adolescence. Experts have suggested that such health hazards may represent the greatest public health challenge that humanity has faced. The accumulation of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, primarily from burning fossil fuels, results in warming which has an impact on air pollution particularly on levels of ozone and particulates. Heat-related health effects include increased rates of pregnancy complications, pre-eclampsia, eclampsia, low birth weight, renal effects, vector-borne diseases as malaria and dengue, increased diarrheal and respiratory disease, food insecurity, decreased quality of foods (notably grains), malnutrition, water scarcity, exposures to toxic chemicals, worsened poverty, natural disasters and population displacement. Air pollution has many adverse health effects for mothers and children. In addition to short-term effects like premature labour, intrauterine growth retardation, neonatal and infant mortality rate, malignancies (notably leukaemia and Hodgkin lymphoma), respiratory diseases, allergic disorders and anaemia, exposure to criteria air pollutants from early life might be associated with increase in stress oxidative, inflammation and endothelial dysfunction which in turn might have long-term effects on chronic non-communicable diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Health professionals have an exclusive capability to help prevent and reduce the harmful effects of environmental factors for high-risk groups, and should consider this capacity in their usual practice. PMID:22224116

Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

2015-12-01

Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

78 FR 69104 - Second Allocation, Waivers, and Alternative Requirements for Grantees Receiving Community...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-18

... analyses of risks to infrastructure sectors from climate change and other hazards, such as the Northeast... interdependencies within and across communities and infrastructure sectors; changes to climate and development... biodiversity, and conserve natural resources in the face of a changing climate . . .'' h. HUD Review of Covered...

Current & future vulnerability of sarasota county Florida to hurricane storm surge & sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.

2008-01-01

Coastal communities in portions of the United States are vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Global human mandibular variation reflects differences in agricultural and hunter-gatherer subsistence strategies

PubMed Central

von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen

2011-01-01

Variation in the masticatory behavior of hunter-gatherer and agricultural populations is hypothesized to be one of the major forces affecting the form of the human mandible. However, this has yet to be analyzed at a global level. Here, the relationship between global mandibular shape variation and subsistence economy is tested, while controlling for the potentially confounding effects of shared population history, geography, and climate. The results demonstrate that the mandible, in contrast to the cranium, significantly reflects subsistence strategy rather than neutral genetic patterns, with hunter-gatherers having consistently longer and narrower mandibles than agriculturalists. These results support notions that a decrease in masticatory stress among agriculturalists causes the mandible to grow and develop differently. This developmental argument also explains why there is often a mismatch between the size of the lower face and the dentition, which, in turn, leads to increased prevalence of dental crowding and malocclusions in modern postindustrial populations. Therefore, these results have important implications for our understanding of human masticatory adaptation. PMID:22106280

Sustainable development: challenges and opportunities for the natural sciences (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutter, J. C.; Fishman, R.; Anttila-Hughes, J. K.; Hsiang, S. M.

2009-12-01

The challenges of sustainable development -- equitably improving global human welfare while ensuring that the environment is preserved for future generations - demand research at the nexus of the social and natural sciences. Massive and inevitable changes in climate, ecosystem functions, and human interaction with the environment will perturb societies throughout the world in different ways over the coming century. The changes faced by poor societies and their ability to cope differs markedly from those that face the richest. Yet in all regions the dynamic interaction of social and natural drivers will govern the prospects for human welfare and its improvement. Developing an understanding of these phenomena will require field research together with analytical and modeling capabilities that couple physical and social phenomena, allowing feedback between the two to manifest and permit forecasting over long time scales. Heterogeneous income and population growth further complicate this need through their consequences for food security, migration, resource allocation, and conflict. In this contribution, we identify some key concepts of sustainable development, open research questions and outline how scientific research might engage this emerging discipline. Using recent examples of interaction, we discuss the opportunities and challenges facing the further development of this dialogue.

An interactive web application for visualizing climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-01-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

An Interactive Web Application for Visualizing Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-05-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

2017-08-01

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrating World Views, Knowledge and Venues in Climate Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Brunacini, J.; Pfirman, S. L.

2015-12-01

The Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change Project integrates traditional and western knowledge and observations in climate science to facilitate dialog and learning among Alaska Native adults about climate change and its impacts on the environment and on Alaskan communities. In one of the models we have tested, the informal education took place at a 4-day camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska. Participants included Alaska Native elders, leaders, educators and natural resource managers, community members and university scientists. Results of pre/post camp surveys showed increased awareness of scientific and technical language used in climate science, improved ability to locate resources, tools, and strategies for learning about climate change, enhanced capacity to communicate climate change in a relevant way to their audiences and communities, confirmed the value of elders in helping them understand, respond and adapt to climate change, and that the camp setting facilitated an in-depth discussion and sharing of knowledge. The camp also enhanced the awareness about weather, climate and the environment of the camp facilitators who also noticed a shift in their own thinking and behavior. After the camp one participant who is an educator shared some of the hands-on tools developed by Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership project and used at the camp, with her 6th grade students, with the other teachers in her school and also at a state conference. Another shared what she learned with her family and friends as well as at a conference sponsored by her faith community where she was an invited speaker. Another camp was scheduled for this past summer but was cancelled due to some unforeseen weather/climate related events. A camp is planned for early summer in 2016; however other models of reaching the adult Native populations in a similar culturally responsive manner as the camps will also be explored and tested.

Water in India with reference to agriculture and population: some issues and patterns -- dynamic approaches needed for development.

PubMed

Roy, B K

1990-03-01

Population growth is increasing the demand for water in India, especially for agricultural purposes. Yet, the government of India has not included an assessment of water needs for an expanding population into its development strategy. The leading obstacle to such an assessment is lack of quality data. In fact, the latest data comes from the 1981 Census. A government official proposes to transform climate and water balance synthesis into crop regions as a means to evaluate the national or macro level effects on agriculture. Rice is the dominant crop of the eastern and coastal regions of India which have a humid and rainy climate. The acute to marginally dry crop regions grow jowar, maize, bajra, and ragi and face a water shortage. In dry northwestern India, developed irrigation systems sustain the wheat crop. Agricultural water needs depend on sufficient monsoon rain and/or irrigation. India has 5 microclimates: perhumid, humid, dry, semiarid, and arid regions. 40.7% of all of India which comprises 33.4% of the population is prone to drought. Rural-urban migration since 1960 has increased the urban population size in India, yet most cities' master plans for provision of safe drinking water for urban dwellers are only advisory rather than mandatory. In fact, 460,000 urban dwellers and many rural dwellers still depend on rivers, canals, or tanks which often are contaminated with sewage, toxins, and radioactive materials. Further, only 0.53% of the rural population has sanitation facilities. 5-level zoning (population-hydrological regions) for India would provide distributional aspects of water by major and minor surface water plans and groundwater, which in turn would bring about a practical infrastructure to different areas for agricultural and population needs. Much of the baseline data needed to develop these regions and to research this system already exists.

Engaging with Underserved Urban Communities on Climate Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akerlof, K.; Moser, F. C.; Baja, K.; Dindinger, J. M.; Chanse, V.; Rowan, K. E.; Rohring, B.

2016-12-01

Meeting the needs of urban high-risk/low-resource communities is one of the most critical challenges in improving climate resilience nationally, but little tailored information exists to guide community engagement efforts specifically for these contexts. This case study describes a collaboration between universities, local governments, and community members working in underserved neighborhoods of the City of Baltimore and Prince George's County, Maryland. In service of current and developing community programs, the team surveyed residents door-to-door about their perceptions of the socio-environmental risks they face, their priorities for change, and the ways in which communication may build protective social capital. We highlight theoretical, applied, and pedagogical aspects of the study that inform both the promise and limitations of these collaborations. These include: 1) the role of citizen participation in climate adaptation decision-making; 2) the meaning, use, and potential impact of community data; 3) balancing differing organizational priorities, timelines, and cultures within community-based projects; and 4) research participation of undergraduate students. The results of the survey illuminate climate risk perceptions in neighborhoods facing complex stressors with lessons for communication and engagement in other urban areas facing similar adaptation challenges.

Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

2010-01-01

Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

The support of local farming communities and crop production resilience to climate change through the cultivation of giant reed (Arundo donax sp.). An Italian case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, Antonello; Impagliazzo, Adriana; Fiorentino, Nunzio; Langella, Giuliano; Mori, Mauro; Fagnano, Massimo

2017-04-01

In literature on climate change, the bioenergy crops are well known for their ability to reduce greenhouse gases emission and increase the soil carbon stock. Nevertheless, in several countries they are considered in competition with food crops, representing a problem for facing the current and future "Food Security" issue related to climate change and population increase. At same time, in order to sustain local farming communities and crop production, mitigation actions at farm scale are identified to face climate change. However, in some cases the specific actions required by the pedo-climatic conditions, are not always economically sustainable by farmers. In this contest, the energy crops with high environmental adaptability and high productive performances, as the giant reed (Arundo donax spp.), cultivated in the areas not suitable for food crop (marginal areas) may represent an opportunity to increase the farmers' incomes, through the direct sale of above ground biomass (AGB) (as raw material for energy or green chemistry) or by means of the obtained biofuel or biogas. Moreover, the bioenergy crops, with low-input cropping systems (i.e. without irrigation and fertilized with compost from organic residues) are considered the most efficient crops for Greenhouse Gases reduction. In fact, they have a direct effect on processes affecting the CC at global scale: i) preserving and improving the soil carbon stock, ii) reducing the soil tillage and preserving the soil erosion, iii) allowing the conservation of fossil fuel resources with a reduction of CO2 emission in the atmosphere. Finally, their high environmental adaptability allows a riparian vegetation use (in the soils near water drains or rivers) with an important effect on the interception of nutrients as nitrogen and phosphorus that, if leached, have a high environmental impact on watercourses (e.g. eutrophication). Thus the correct use of this crops allows to respond to 3 of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of United Nations: (i) SDG 2 on food security and sustainable agriculture, (ii) SDG 7 on reliable, sustainable and modern energy and (iii) SDG 13 on action to combat climate change and its impacts. Therefore, in order to support the resilience of local farming communities and food production, a mitigation action to face climate change can be bases on the assessment of the possible increase of farmers' incomes derived by the cultivation of bioenergy crops in their marginal areas. On these premises, we have evaluated the giant reed responses in the marginal areas of an agricultural district of southern Italy (Destra Sele) and evaluated the expected farmers' income in a near future (2021-2050) through a simulation model application. In order to realize this applicative and pro-active approach to farmer support, the normalized water productivity index of giant reed has been determined, through the use of agro-hydrological model SWAP, calibrated and validated on two years of long term field experiment on giant reed, realized within of study area. Keywords: Climate Change; SWAP; giant reed;water productivity (WP); Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

Flow Down! Can managing forests help maintain water supplies in the face of climate change?

Treesearch

Stephanie Laseter; Chelcy Miniat; James Vose

2014-01-01

Climate change can have a direct and indirect impacts on water resources. Direct impacts of climate change can be seen by the presence of more extreme weather events. Extreme weather events include things like heat waves and droughts. Droughts have a direct impact on water and water supply. The indirect impacts of climate change on water resources relate to temperature...

Adaptive silviculture for climate change: a national experiment in manager-scientist partnerships to apply an adaptation framework

Treesearch

Linda M. ​Nagel; Brian J. Palik; Michael A. Battaglia; Anthony W. D' Amato; James M. Guldin; Chris Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak; Matthew P. Powers; Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar; David L. Peterson; Lisa M. Ganio; Chad Kirschbaum; Molly R. Roske

2017-01-01

Forest managers in the United States must respond to the need for climate-adaptive strategies in the face of observed and projected climatic changes. However, there is a lack of on-the-ground forest adaptation research to indicate what adaptation measures or tactics might be effective in preparing forest ecosystems to deal with climate change. Natural resource managers...

Sex pheromones and their impact on pest management.

PubMed

Witzgall, Peter; Kirsch, Philipp; Cork, Alan

2010-01-01

The idea of using species-specific behavior-modifying chemicals for the management of noxious insects in agriculture, horticulture, forestry, stored products, and for insect vectors of diseases has been a driving ambition through five decades of pheromone research. Hundreds of pheromones and other semiochemicals have been discovered that are used to monitor the presence and abundance of insects and to protect plants and animals against insects. The estimated annual production of lures for monitoring and mass trapping is on the order of tens of millions, covering at least 10 million hectares. Insect populations are controlled by air permeation and attract-and-kill techniques on at least 1 million hectares. Here, we review the most important and widespread practical applications. Pheromones are increasingly efficient at low population densities, they do not adversely affect natural enemies, and they can, therefore, bring about a long-term reduction in insect populations that cannot be accomplished with conventional insecticides. A changing climate with higher growing season temperatures and altered rainfall patterns makes control of native and invasive insects an increasingly urgent challenge. Intensified insecticide use will not provide a solution, but pheromones and other semiochemicals instead can be implemented for sustainable area-wide management and will thus improve food security for a growing population. Given the scale of the challenges we face to mitigate the impacts of climate change, the time is right to intensify goal-oriented interdisciplinary research on semiochemicals, involving chemists, entomologists, and plant protection experts, in order to provide the urgently needed, and cost-effective technical solutions for sustainable insect management worldwide.

Ecological and Genetic Divergences with Gene Flow of Two Sister Species (Leucomeris decora and Nouelia insignis) Driving by Climatic Transition in Southwest China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yujuan; Yin, Genshen; Pan, Yuezhi; Gong, Xun

2018-01-01

Understanding of the processes of divergence and speciation is a major task for biodiversity researches and may offer clearer insight into mechanisms generating biological diversity. Here, we employ an integrative approach to explore genetic and ecological differentiation of Leucomeris decora and Nouelia insignis distributed allopatrically along the two sides of the biogeographic boundary 'Tanaka Line' in Southwest China. We addressed these questions using ten low-copy nuclear genes and nine plastid DNA regions sequenced among individuals sampled from 28 populations across their geographic ranges in China. Phylogenetic, coalescent-based population genetic analyses, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework and ecological niche models (ENMs) were conducted. We identified a closer phylogenetic relationship in maternal lineage of L. decora with N. insignis than that between L . decora and congeneric Leucomeris spectabilis . A deep divergence between the two species was observed and occurred at the boundary between later Pliocene and early Pleistocene. However, the evidence of significant chloroplast DNA gene flow was also detected between the marginal populations of L. decora and N. insignis . Niche models and statistical analyses showed significant ecological differentiation, and two nuclear loci among the ten nuclear genes may be under divergent selection. These integrative results imply that the role of climatic shift from Pliocene to Pleistocene may be the prominent factor for the divergence of L . decora and N . insignis , and population expansion after divergence may have given rise to chloroplast DNA introgression. The divergence was maintained by differential selection despite in the face of gene flow.

The Effect of Crop Insurance on Technical Efficiency of Wheat Farmers in Kermanshah Province: A Corrected Ordinary Least Square Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agahi, Hossein; Zarafshani, Kiumars; Behjat, Amir-Mohsen

The purpose of this study was to describe the effect of crop insurance on agricultural production among dry wheat farmers in Kermanshah province. The population of this study consisted of dry wheat farmers. Data used in this study was collected using stratified multi-stage cluster sampling method and face to face interview with 251 farmers in three different climate regions: tropical, temperate and cold during 2003-2004 crop years. The procedures used for determining farmers' technical efficiency was Corrected Ordinary Least Square (COLS). Findings revealed that crop insurance has positive effect on temperate and tropical regions. However, the production difference between insured and uninsured farmers in cold region was non-significant. It is therefore concluded that technical efficiency of agricultural production in Kermanshah province is a function of crop insurance as well as other variables such as crop management practices, personal characteristics and fair distribution of agricultural inputs.

Guide to Cybersecurity, Resilience, and Reliability for Small and Under-Resourced Utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ingram, Michael; Martin, Maurice

Small electricity utilities -- those with less than 100 employees or 50,000 meters -- provide essential services to large parts of the United States while facing a number of challenges unique to their mission. For instance, they often serve areas that are sparsely populated, meaning that their per-customer cost to provide service is higher. At the same time, they often serve customers that have moderate or fixed incomes, meaning that they are under strong pressure to keep costs down. This pressure puts them on a strict budget and creates a need for innovative solutions to common problems. Further, their servicemore » areas may include extreme climates, making severe weather events more frequent and their aftermaths more expensive to address. This guide considers challenges that small utilities face while ensuring the reliability, resilience, and cybersecurity of their electric service; approaches to address those challenges using existing guidance documents; ways that the federal government could provide support in these areas.« less

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.

PubMed

Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine

2017-07-01

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

2010-01-01

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Cross-scale modeling of surface temperature and tree seedling establishment inmountain landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dingman, John; Sweet, Lynn C.; McCullough, Ian M.; Davis, Frank W.; Flint, Alan L.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine E.

2013-01-01

Abstract: Introduction: Estimating surface temperature from above-ground field measurements is important for understanding the complex landscape patterns of plant seedling survival and establishment, processes which occur at heights of only several centimeters. Currently, future climate models predict temperature at 2 m above ground, leaving ground-surface microclimate not well characterized. Methods: Using a network of field temperature sensors and climate models, a ground-surface temperature method was used to estimate microclimate variability of minimum and maximum temperature. Temperature lapse rates were derived from field temperature sensors and distributed across the landscape capturing differences in solar radiation and cold air drainages modeled at a 30-m spatial resolution. Results: The surface temperature estimation method used for this analysis successfully estimated minimum surface temperatures on north-facing, south-facing, valley, and ridgeline topographic settings, and when compared to measured temperatures yielded an R2 of 0.88, 0.80, 0.88, and 0.80, respectively. Maximum surface temperatures generally had slightly more spatial variability than minimum surface temperatures, resulting in R2 values of 0.86, 0.77, 0.72, and 0.79 for north-facing, south-facing, valley, and ridgeline topographic settings. Quasi-Poisson regressions predicting recruitment of Quercus kelloggii (black oak) seedlings from temperature variables were significantly improved using these estimates of surface temperature compared to air temperature modeled at 2 m. Conclusion: Predicting minimum and maximum ground-surface temperatures using a downscaled climate model coupled with temperature lapse rates estimated from field measurements provides a method for modeling temperature effects on plant recruitment. Such methods could be applied to improve projections of species’ range shifts under climate change. Areas of complex topography can provide intricate microclimates that may allow species to redistribute locally as climate changes.

A tale of two California droughts: Lessons amidst record warmth and dryness in a region of complex physical and human geography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Daniel L.

2015-11-01

The state of California has experienced the worst drought in its historical record during 2012-2015. Adverse effects of this multiyear event have been far from uniformly distributed across the region, ranging from remarkably mild in most of California's densely populated coastal cities to very severe in more rural, agricultural, and wildfire-prone regions. This duality of impacts has created a tale of two very different California droughts—highlighting enhanced susceptibility to climate stresses at the environmental and socioeconomic margins of California. From a geophysical perspective, the persistence of related atmospheric anomalies has raised a number of questions regarding the drought's origins—including the role of anthropogenic climate change. Recent investigations underscore the importance of understanding the underlying physical causes of extremes in the climate system, and the present California drought represents an excellent case study for such endeavors. Meanwhile, a powerful El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean offers the simultaneous prospect of partial drought relief but also an increased risk of flooding during the 2015-2016 winter—a situation illustrative of the complex hydroclimatic risks California and other regions are likely to face in a warming world.

Evaluating Decoupling Process in OECD Countries: Case Study of Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Şengün Ucal, Meltem; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2017-04-01

Climate change is at the top of the present and future problems facing humanity. Climate change is now largely attributed to human activities and economic activities are the source of human activities that cause climate change by creating pressure on the environment. Providing the sustainability of resources for the future seems possible by reducing the pressure of these economic activities on the environment. Given the increasing population pressure and growth-focused economies, it is possible to say that achieving decoupling is not so easy on a global basis. It is known that there are some problems in developing countries especially in terms of accessing reliable data in transition and implementation process of decoupling. Developed countries' decoupling practices and proper calculation methods can also be a guide for developing countries. In this study, we tried to calculate the comparative decoupling index for OECD countries and Turkey in terms of data suitability, and we showed the differences between them. We tried to indicate the level of decoupling (weak, stable, strong) for each country. We think that the comparison of Turkey can be an example in terms of developing countries. Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Bogazici University Research Fund Grant Number 12220.

The physician's response to climate change.

PubMed

Sarfaty, Mona; Abouzaid, Safiya

2009-05-01

Climate change will have an effect on the health and well-being of the populations cared for by practicing physicians. The anticipated medical effects include heat- and cold-related deaths, cardiovascular illnesses, injuries and mental harms from extreme weather events, respiratory illnesses caused by poor air quality, infectious diseases that emanate from contaminated food, water, or spread of disease vectors, the injuries caused by natural disasters, and the mental harm associated with social disruption. Within several years, such medical problems are likely to reach the doorsteps of many physicians. In the face of this reality, physicians should assume their traditional roles as medical professionals, health educators, and community leaders. Clinicians provide individual health services to patients, some of whom will be especially vulnerable to the emerging health consequences of global warming. Physicians also work in academic medical institutions and hospitals that educate and provide continuing medical education to students, residents, and practitioners. The institutions also produce a measurable carbon footprint. Societies of physicians at national, state, and local levels can choose to use their well-developed avenues of communication to raise awareness of the key issues that are raised by climate change as well as other environmental concerns that have profound implications for human health and well-being.

Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

PubMed

Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

2010-06-01

Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

School Climate and Leadership: Levers for School Improvement Efforts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costa, Lois

2016-01-01

This qualitative study considers which aspects of school climate support or inhibit student achievement as each aspect relates to school leadership and school reform efforts. Due to the increased responsibility and accountability which schools face during these challenging times, school climate and the role of the school principal formed the basis…

Integrating climate change considerations into forest management tools and training

Treesearch

Linda M. Nagel; Christopher W. Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak

2010-01-01

Silviculturists are currently facing the challenge of developing management strategies that meet broad ecological and social considerations in spite of a high degree of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. Forest managers need state-of-the-art knowledge about climate change and potential impacts to facilitate development of silvicultural objectives and...

Baldcypress swamp management and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2006-01-01

In the future, climates may become warmer and drier in the southeastern United States; as a result, the range of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps may shrink. Managers of baldcypress swamps at the southern edge of the range may face special challenges in attempting to preserve these swamp habitats in the future if climates become warmer and drier.

Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Geoffrey M. Blate; Steven G. McNulty; Constance I. Millar; Susanne Moser; Ronald P. Neilson; David L. Peterson

2009-01-01

This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning andmanagement that theUnited States Forest Servicemight adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-...

Facing climate change in forests and fields

Treesearch

Amy Daniels; Nancy Shaw; Dave Peterson; Keith Nislow; Monica Tomosy; Mary Rowland

2014-01-01

As a growing body of science shows, climate change impacts on wildlife are already profound - from shifting species' ranges and altering the synchronicity of food sources to changing the availability of water. Such impacts are only expected to increase in the coming decades. As climate change shapes complex, interwoven ecological processes, novel conditions and...

Climate Education: Empowering Today's Youth to Meet Tomorrow's Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schreiner, Camilla; Henriksen, Ellen K.; Kirkeby Hansen, Pal J.

2005-01-01

An enhanced greenhouse effect, leading to global warming and associated changes in the climate system, is arguably one of the greatest environmental challenges facing humankind in the 21st century. The challenge extends to the scientific, political, economic and ethical domains of the human enterprise. The science of climate change involves…

Does climatic variability influence agricultural land prices under differing uses? The Texas High Plains case

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Texas High Plains faces projections of increasing temperature and declining precipitation in the future on account of its semi-arid climate. This research evaluated the impact of climatic variability on agricultural land prices under different land uses in the Texas High Plains, employing the Ri...

Inspiring Climate Education Excellence(ICEE): Developing Elearning professional development modules - secondary science teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kellagher, E.; Buhr, S. M.; Lynds, S. E.; McCaffrey, M. S.; Cires Education Outreach

2011-12-01

Inspiring Climate Education Excellence (ICEE) is a NASA-funded project to develop content knowledge and knowledge of effective teaching strategies in climate education among secondary science teachers. ICEE resources are aligned with the Essential Principles of Climate Science. Building upon a needs assessment and face to face workshop, ICEE resources include iTunesU videos, an ICEE 101 resource site with videos and peer-reviewed learning activities, and a moderated online forum. Self-directed modules and an online course are being developed around concepts and topics in which teachers express the most interest and need for instruction. ICEE resources include attention to effective teaching strategies, such as awareness of student misconceptions, strategies for forestalling controversy and advice from master teachers on implementation and curriculum development. The resources are being developed in partnership with GLOBE, and the National Science Digital Library (NSDL) and are informed by the work of the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) project. ICEE will help to meet the professional development needs of teachers, including those participating in the GLOBE Student Climate Research Campaign.

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

PubMed

Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie

2018-02-01

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats). © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Expanding Medicaid managed care: the right choice for Texas?

PubMed

Reddy, Swapna; Finley, Marisa; Posey, Dan; Rohack, James J

2012-10-01

We set out to determine whether expanding Medicaid managed care in Texas is the solution to the challenges faced by the state of meeting the healthcare needs of a rapidly growing Medicaid population while addressing its own fiscal limitations. We reviewed the Texas Medicaid program, the potential effects of federal healthcare reform, and the state political climate through the perspectives (advantages and disadvantages) of the primary stakeholders: patients, practitioners, hospitals, and insurers. Research was performed through online, federal and state regulatory, and legislative review. In addition, we reviewed government and peer-reviewed reports and articles pertaining to issues related to Medicaid populations, healthcare practitioners, and hospitals that serve them. Each primary stakeholder had potential advantages and disadvantages associated with the expansion of Medicaid managed care. We conclude that expanding Medicaid managed care, if done in a manner responsive to the needs of recipients, can meet enrollees' healthcare needs while controlling the state's costs.

Suicide Prevention Interventions for Sexual & Gender Minority Youth: An Unmet Need.

PubMed

Marshall, Alexandra

2016-06-01

Suicide is currently the second leading cause of death in the U.S. among youth ages 10 to 24. Sexual and gender minority (SGM) youth face heightened risk for suicide and report greater odds of attempting suicide than their heteronormative peers. Contributing factors of experience, which are distinctly different from the experiences of heteronormative youth, place SGM youth at heightened risk for suicide. While interventions aimed at addressing suicide risk factors for all youth are being implemented and many have proven effective in the general population, no evidence-based intervention currently exists to reduce suicide risk within this special population. This perspective article discusses this need and proposes the development of an evidence-based suicide risk reduction intervention tailored to SGM youth. Creating a supportive school climate for SGM youth has been shown to reduce suicide risk and may provide protective effects for all youth while simultaneously meeting the unique needs of SGM youth.

Geospatial Resource Access Analysis In Hedaru, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Dylan G.; Premkumar, Deepak; Mazur, Robert; Kisimbo, Elibariki

2013-12-01

Populations around the world are facing increased impacts of anthropogenic-induced environmental changes and rapid population movements. These environmental and social shifts are having an elevated impact on the livelihoods of agriculturalists and pastoralists in developing countries. This appraisal integrates various tools—usually used independently— to gain a comprehensive understanding of the regional livelihood constraints in the rural Hedaru Valley of northeastern Tanzania. Conducted in three villages with different natural resources, using three primary methods: 1) participatory mapping of infrastructures; 2) administration of quantitative, spatially-tied surveys (n=80) and focus groups (n=14) that examined land use, household health, education, and demographics; 3) conducting quantitative time series analysis of Landsat- based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index images. Through various geospatial and multivariate linear regression analyses, significant geospatial trends emerged. This research added to the academic understanding of the region while establishing pathways for climate change adaptation strategies.

Suicide Prevention Interventions for Sexual & Gender Minority Youth: An Unmet Need

PubMed Central

Marshall, Alexandra

2016-01-01

Suicide is currently the second leading cause of death in the U.S. among youth ages 10 to 24. Sexual and gender minority (SGM) youth face heightened risk for suicide and report greater odds of attempting suicide than their heteronormative peers. Contributing factors of experience, which are distinctly different from the experiences of heteronormative youth, place SGM youth at heightened risk for suicide. While interventions aimed at addressing suicide risk factors for all youth are being implemented and many have proven effective in the general population, no evidence-based intervention currently exists to reduce suicide risk within this special population. This perspective article discusses this need and proposes the development of an evidence-based suicide risk reduction intervention tailored to SGM youth. Creating a supportive school climate for SGM youth has been shown to reduce suicide risk and may provide protective effects for all youth while simultaneously meeting the unique needs of SGM youth. PMID:27354846

Rainfall Climatology over Asir Region, Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H.; Furl, C.; Al-Zahrani, M.

2012-04-01

Arid and semi-arid lands occupy about one-third of the land surface of the earth and support about one-fifth of the world population. The Asir area in Saudi Arabia is an example of these areas faced with the problem of maintaining sustainable water resources. This problem is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth, land use changes, increasing water demand, and climate variability. In this study, the characteristics of decade-scale variations in precipitation are examined in more detail for Asir region. The spatio-temporal distributions of rainfall over the region are analyzed. The objectives are to identify the sensitivity, magnitude, and range of changes in annual and seasonal evapotranspiration resulting from observed decade-scale precipitation variations. An additional objective is to characterize orographic controls on the space-time variability of rainfall. The rainfall data is obtained from more than 30 rain gauges spread over the region.

Simulated crop yield in response to changes in climate and agricultural practices: results from a simple process based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldararu, S.; Smith, M. J.; Purves, D.; Emmott, S.

2013-12-01

Global agriculture will, in the future, be faced with two main challenges: climate change and an increase in global food demand driven by an increase in population and changes in consumption habits. To be able to predict both the impacts of changes in climate on crop yields and the changes in agricultural practices necessary to respond to such impacts we currently need to improve our understanding of crop responses to climate and the predictive capability of our models. Ideally, what we would have at our disposal is a modelling tool which, given certain climatic conditions and agricultural practices, can predict the growth pattern and final yield of any of the major crops across the globe. We present a simple, process-based crop growth model based on the assumption that plants allocate above- and below-ground biomass to maintain overall carbon optimality and that, to maintain this optimality, the reproductive stage begins at peak nitrogen uptake. The model includes responses to available light, water, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration as well as nitrogen fertilisation and irrigation. The model is data constrained at two sites, the Yaqui Valley, Mexico for wheat and the Southern Great Plains flux site for maize and soybean, using a robust combination of space-based vegetation data (including data from the MODIS and Landsat TM and ETM+ instruments), as well as ground-based biomass and yield measurements. We show a number of climate response scenarios, including increases in temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations as well as responses to irrigation and fertiliser application.

Dynamic reserve design in the face of climate change and urbanization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Johnson, Fred A.; Stith, Bradley M.; Bonneau, Mathieu

2015-01-01

Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape‐scale changes from urbanization and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages of USFWS planning. The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge (EHNWR) has recently been established, is at the top of the Presidential Administration’s priority conservation areas, and is cited by the Secretary of DOI routinely in the context of conservation. The new refuges were strategically located for both for species adaptation from climate change impacts as well as currently being host to a number of important threatened and endangered species and habitats. We plan to combine a structured decision making framework, optimal solution theory, and output from ecological and sociological models (these modeling efforts were previously funded by DOI partners) that incorporate climate change to provide guidance for EHNWR reserve design. Utilizing a SDM approach and optimal solution theory, decision support tools will be developed that will incorporate stakeholder and agency objectives into targeting conservation lands both through fee simple purchase and other incentives such as easements based on ecological and socioeconomic modeling outputs driven by climate change.

Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

PubMed

Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

2015-05-18

Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony

Treesearch

Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg

2017-01-01

Aim There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from...

Future climate stimulates population out-breaks by relaxing constraints on reproduction.

PubMed

Heldt, Katherine A; Connell, Sean D; Anderson, Kathryn; Russell, Bayden D; Munguia, Pablo

2016-09-14

When conditions are stressful, reproduction and population growth are reduced, but when favourable, reproduction and population size can boom. Theory suggests climate change is an increasingly stressful environment, predicting extinctions or decreased abundances. However, if favourable conditions align, such as an increase in resources or release from competition and predation, future climate can fuel population growth. Tests of such population growth models and the mechanisms by which they are enabled are rare. We tested whether intergenerational increases in population size might be facilitated by adjustments in reproductive success to favourable environmental conditions in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Herbivorous amphipod populations responded to future climate by increasing 20 fold, suggesting that future climate might relax environmental constraints on fecundity. We then assessed whether future climate reduces variation in mating success, boosting population fecundity and size. The proportion of gravid females doubled, and variance in phenotypic variation of male secondary sexual characters (i.e. gnathopods) was significantly reduced. While future climate can enhance individual growth and survival, it may also reduce constraints on mechanisms of reproduction such that enhanced intra-generational productivity and reproductive success transfers to subsequent generations. Where both intra and intergenerational production is enhanced, population sizes might boom.

The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations.

PubMed

Boggs, Carol L

2016-10-01

Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths.

PubMed

Hunter, Mark D; Kozlov, Mikhail V; Itämies, Juhani; Pulliainen, Erkki; Bäck, Jaana; Kyrö, Ella-Maria; Niemelä, Pekka

2014-06-01

Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time-series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life-history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time-series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evidence of climatic effects on soil, vegetation and landform in temperate forests of south-eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inbar, Assaf; Nyman, Petter; Lane, Patrick; Sheridan, Gary

2016-04-01

Water and radiation are unevenly distributed across the landscape due to variations in topography, which in turn causes water availability differences on the terrain according to elevation and aspect orientation. These differences in water availability can cause differential distribution of vegetation types and indirectly influence the development of soil and even landform, as expressed in hillslope asymmetry. While most of the research on the effects of climate on the vegetation and soil development and landscape evolution has been concentrated in drier semi-arid areas, temperate forested areas has been poorly studied, particularly in South Eastern Australia. This study uses soil profile descriptions and data on soil depth and landform across climatic gradients to explore the degrees to which coevolution of vegetation, soils and landform are controlled by radiative forcing and rainfall. Soil depth measurements were made on polar and equatorial facing hillslopes located at 3 sites along a climatic gradient (mean annual rainfall between 700 - 1800 mm yr-1) in the Victorian Highlands, where forest types range from dry open woodland to closed temperate rainforest. Profile descriptions were taken from soil pits dag on planar hillslopes (50 m from ridge), and samples were taken from each horizon for physical and chemical properties analysis. Hillslope asymmetry in different precipitation regimes of the study region was quantified from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). Significant vegetation differences between aspects were noted in lower and intermediate rainfall sites, where polar facing aspects expressed higher overall biomass than the drier equatorial slope. Within the study domain, soil depth was strongly correlated with forest type and above ground biomass. Soil depths and chemical properties varied between topographic aspects and along the precipitation gradient, where wetter conditions facilitate deeper and more weathered soils. Furthermore, soil depths showed different patterns as a function of contributing area. While soils on the polar facing slope became deeper, soils on the equatorial facing slope kept a uniform depth with increasing contributing area, pointing to different governing geomorphic processes at work. Using slope-area relationships analysis, polar facing slopes were found to be generally steeper and with longer distance to channel initiation point (if existent) than that of the equatorial facing slopes, strengthening the evidence of climate-affected differential geomorphic processes shaping the hillslope form. The results point out to the effect of climate on the development and coevolution of soil, vegetation and landform in the temperate part of Australia.

Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

2013-12-01

Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

Changing times, changing stories: Generational differences in climate change perspectives from four remote indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; Matkin, Elli; Laituri, Melinda J.; Toohey, Ryan C; Massey, Maggie; Elder, Kelly; Schuster, Paul F.; Mutter, Edda A.

2016-01-01

Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation research; however, the cultural dimensions of climate change are equally important because cultural dimensions inform perceptions of risk. Furthermore, many Arctic and Subarctic IK climate change studies document observations of change and knowledge of the elders and older generations in a community, but few include the perspectives of the younger population. These observations by elders and older generations form a historical baseline record of weather and climate observations in these regions. However, many indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities are composed of primarily younger residents. We focused on the differences in the cultural dimensions of climate change found between young adults and elders. We outlined the findings from interviews conducted in four indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska. The findings revealed that (1) intergenerational observations of change were common among interview participants in all four communities, (2) older generations observed more overall change than younger generations interviewed by us, and (3) how change was perceived varied between generations. We defined “observations” as the specific examples of environmental and weather change that were described, whereas “perceptions” referred to the manner in which these observations of change were understood and contextualized by the interview participants. Understanding the differences in generational observations and perceptions of change are key issues in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

A Curriculum Experiment in Climate Change Education Using an Integrated Approach of Content Knowledge Instruction and Student-Driven Research, Year 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, P. E.; Heinrichs, J. F.

2010-12-01

One of the greatest challenges facing the world is climate change. Coupled with this challenge is an under-informed population that has not received a rigorous education about climate change other than what is available through the media. Fort Hays State University is in a second year of piloting a course on climate change targeted to students early in their academic careers. The course is modeled after our past work (NSF DUE-0088818) of integrating content knowledge instruction and student-driven research where there was a positive correlation between student research engagement and student knowledge gains. The second pilot offering utilizes a mix of inquiry-based instruction, problem-based learning, and student-driven research to educate and engage the students in understanding climate change. The course was collaboratively developed by a geoscientist and science educator both of whom are active in citizen science programs. The course model is unique in that 50% of the course is dedicated to developing core knowledge and technical skills (e.g. global climate change, critical analysis, writing, data acquisition, data representation, and research design), and 50% to conducting a research project using available data sets from federal agencies and research groups. A key element of the course is a focus on data sets to make climate change relevant to the students. The research serves as a means of civic engagement by the students as they are tasked to understand their role in communicating their research findings to the community and coping with the local and regional changes they find through their research. The impacts of course changes from the first offering to the second offering of the course will be reported, as well as the structure of the course.

Response of Urban Systems to Climate Change in Europe: Heat Stress Exposure and the Effect on Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart; Grommen, Mart

2015-04-01

Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heavy rain- and windstorms, floods, drought, heat waves, etc. The summer 2003 European heat wave was the hottest summer on record in Europe over the past centuries leading to health crises in several countries like France and caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. The main risks induced by global climate change in urbanised areas are considered to be overheating and resulting health effects, increased exposure to flood events, increased damage losses from extreme weather conditions but also shortages in the provision of life-sustaining services. Moreover, the cities themselves create specific or inherent risks and urban adaptation is often very demanding. As most of Europe's inhabitants live in cities, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of climate variability on urban areas and their populations. The present study focusses on the identification of heat stress variables related to human health and the extraction of this information by processing daily temperature statistics of local urban climate simulations over multiple timeframes of 20 years and three different European cities based on recent, near future and far future global climate predictions. The analyses have been conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (Belgium), Berlin (Germany) and Almada (Portugal) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. Apart from the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect), additional heat stress parameters such as the average number of heat wave days together with their duration and intensities have been covered during this research. In a subsequent step, the heat stress variables are superposed on relevant socio-economic datasets targeting total population and its distribution per age class as well as vulnerable institutions such as hospitals, schools, rest homes and child/day care facilities in order to generate heat stress exposure maps for each use case city and various climate, urban planning and mitigation scenarios. The specifications and requirements for the various scenarios have been consolidated in close collaboration with the local stakeholders during dedicated end-users workshops. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for evolving towards sustainable and climate resilient cities.

Dangerous climate change and collective action. Comment on "Climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization" by Jorge M. Pacheco, Vítor V. Vasconcelos, and Francisco C. Santos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, Astrid

2014-12-01

Climate change perhaps is the greatest collective action problem mankind has ever faced and the international community is still at a loss for how to get the ever rising greenhouse gas emissions under control. Does the risk of crossing a "dangerous" climate threshold improve the prospects of collective action?

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Mladenoff; Emily Peters; Kirk R. Wythers; Weimin Xi; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Linda R. Parker; Amy J. Amman; Brian Bogaczyk; Christine Handler; Ellen Lesch; Peter B. Reich; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Sami Khanal; Feng Liu; Tara Bal; Dustin Bronson; Andrew Burton; Jim Ferris; Jon Fosgitt; Shawn Hagan; Erin Johnston; Evan Kane; Colleen Matula; Ryan O' Connor; Dale Higgins; Matt St. Pierre; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; David Fehringer; Christopher L. Hoving; Gary Johnson; David Neitzel; Michael Notaro; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert Ziel

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystems across the Northwoods will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate...

Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Desprez, Marine; Fay, Remi; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Caswell, Hal

2018-07-01

Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd oxn behalf of British Ecological Society.

Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).

PubMed

Pandit, Shubha N; Maitland, Bryan M; Pandit, Laxmi K; Poesch, Mark S; Enders, Eva C

2017-11-15

Climate change is affecting many freshwater species, particularly fishes. Predictions of future climate change suggest large and deleterious effects on species with narrow dispersal abilities due to limited hydrological connectivity. In turn, this creates the potential for population isolation in thermally unsuitable habitats, leading to physiological stress, species declines or possible extirpation. The current extent of many freshwater fish species' spatio-temporal distribution patterns and their sensitivity to thermal impacts from climate change - critical information for conservation planning - are often unknown. Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus) is an ecologically important species listed as threatened or imperilled nationally (Canada) and regionally (South Dakota, United States) due to its restricted range and sensitivity to water quality and temperature. This research aimed to determine the current distribution and spatio-temporal variability in projected suitable habitat for Carmine shiner using niche-based modeling approaches (MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN models). Statistically downscaled, bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) data was used to model the distribution of Carmine shiner in central North America for the period of 2041-2060 (2050s). Maximum mean July temperature and temperature variability were the main factors in determining Carmine shiner distribution. Patterns of projected habitat change by the 2050s suggest the spatial extent of the current distribution of Carmine shiner would shift north, with >50% of the current distribution changing with future projections based on two Representative Concentrations Pathways for CO 2 emissions. Whereas the southern extent of the distribution would become unsuitable for Carmine shiner, suitable habitats are predicted to become available further north, if accessible. Importantly, the majority of habitat gains for Carmine shiner would be in areas currently inaccessible due to dispersal limitations, suggesting current populations may face an extinction debt within the next half century. These results provide evidence that Carmine shiner may be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and suggest that management actions - such as assisted migration - may be needed to mitigate impacts from climate change and ensure the long-term persistence of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

a Study of Risk Preferences and Perceptions of Weather Variability of Smallholder Subsistence Farmers in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.; Michelson, H. C.

2013-12-01

In 2011, the global population reached seven billion people. According to Foley et al. (2011) nearly one billion still suffer from chronic hunger. World population is expected to increase by another 9-11 billion by 2050. As demand for food grows, the world food system faces three primary challenges: to ensure that the current population of seven billion is adequately fed, to double food production to meet future population growth, and to achieve both in an environmentally sustainable way. As pressures on the global food system grow, sub-Saharan presents a special set of opportunities and challenges. In parts of sub-Saharan Africa, smallholder adoption of productivity-increasing agricultural technologies has proved a pervasive challenge and staple grain yields in the region lag significantly behind the rest of the world. National policies and internationally-funded initiatives such as the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) have proposed to close the agricultural yield gap through promotion of small farmer adoption of technologies that increase production efficiency, such as improved seeds, fertilizer and irrigation. However, research has found that even when these productivity-enhancing technologies are provided at subsidized costs, many projects report take-up rates well below 100%. In order to understand why farmers are not making investments to improve staple crop yields, it is critical to investigate the nature of the problem of the low take-up rate. Possible hypotheses include: credit constraints, opportunity costs, and farmer risk and/or time preferences that lead them to delay investment. Our project in Mwandama, Malawi uses techniques from prospect theory and expected utility theory to provide insight into farmer decision-making around technology adoption. We build on past research conducted in Ethiopia, India and Uganda, which has found that poor farmers systematically underweight the likelihood of good outcomes. We use a new methodology called parametric Dynamic Experiments for Estimating Preferences developed at Columbia University to measure three prospect theory parameters using an adaptive survey tool installed on a tablet PC. Our work is the first to use an adaptive survey tool to measure risk preferences and to combine these measures with both panel data on agricultural investments and beliefs about climate change using scenarios. Despite the need for better understanding of how farmer preferences over time and risk might influence technology adoption and production decisions made by farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a critical gap in research about this topic. Whether and how vulnerability to climate change has entered the mind frame of farmers is explored with a scenario setup, in which farmers are asked to provide advice to a hypothetical farmer facing low yields due to a prolonged drought. Farmer responses to the scenarios give us information about both the channel through which farmers receive information about agriculture and adaptation and primary factors mentioned to be important agricultural strategies in the face of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. This research offers insights to understand decision-making process of smallholder farmers, who face adverse effects of weather variability and the present problem of low soil fertility.

Demographic Responses To Climate Manipulations Across a Species Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldfather, M. F.

2016-12-01

Species biogeographic responses to climate change will occur through the local extinction and establishment of populations. The overall performance of populations across a species range is shaped by the idiosyncratic sensitivities of demographic rates to the changing climate conditions. Heterogeneous topography partially decouples temperature and soil moisture presenting an opportunity to disentangle demographic sensitivity to multiple local climate variables and refine range shift predictions in response to complex climate change. Since 2013, I have monitored 16 populations of a long-lived alpine plant, Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis (Rosaceae) across the entirety of its altitudinal range in the arid White Mountains, CA (3350 - 4420m). I quantified microclimatic soil moisture and temperature, and the demographic rates of over 4,000 individuals. Demographic rates exhibited sensitivity to accumulated degree-days (ex. reproduction), soil volumetric water content (ex. germination), or the interaction between these climate variables (ex. survival). These observations motivated an experimental test of the relationship between demography and local climate with manipulations of increased summertime temperature and precipitation in nine populations. All demographic rates were sensitive to the climate manipulations and the magnitude of the demographic response depended on the population's location within the range. However, the modeled population growth rate was only minimally affected by the manipulations in most populations. The inverse responses of many of the demographic rates may allow populations to demographically buffer against the climate manipulations. However, in one low elevation edge population the negative effect of heating on survival overwhelmed the positive effect on germination, indicating that the capacity of populations to demographically buffer may have a limit.

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on wildlife habitats in the U.S.

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Curtis H. Flather; Marni Koopman

2008-01-01

Resource managers face many challenges in developing management recommendations for wildlife habitat under a changing climate. Our research results offer states a more consistent and holistic approach to analyzing potential threats of climate change to terrestrial wildlife habitat. This process integrates a review of the scientific literature, the State Wildlife Action...

Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Leslie A. Brandt; Maria K. Janowiak; Stephen D. Handler; Patricia Butler-Leopold; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Todd A. Ontl; P. Danielle Shannon

2018-01-01

Forests of the Midwest and Northeast significantly define the character, culture, and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the climate continues to change. Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Not all forests are vulnerable; longer...

Indigenous experiences in the U.S. with climate change and environmental stewardship in the Anthropocene

Treesearch

Karletta Chief; John J. Daigle; Kathy Lynn; Kyle Powys Whyte

2014-01-01

The recognition of climate change issues facing tribal communities and indigenous peoples in the United States is growing, and understanding its impacts is rooted in indigenous ethical perspectives and systems of ecological knowledge. This foundation presents a context and guide for contemporary indigenous approaches to address climate change impacts that are...

Long-term trends in climate and hydrology in an agricultural headwater watershed of central Pennsylvania, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change has emerged as a key issue facing agriculture and water resources in the US. Long-term (1968-2012) temperature, precipitation and streamflow data from a small (7.3 km2) watershed in east-central Pennsylvania was used to examine climatic and hydrologic trends in the context of recent c...

Silvicultural decisionmaking in an uncertain climate future: a workshop-based exploration of considerations, strategies, and approaches

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Christopher W. Swanston; Linda M. Nagel; Christopher R. Webster; Brian J. Palik; Mark J. Twery; John B. Bradford; Linda R. Parker; Andrea T. Hille; Sheela M. Johnson

2011-01-01

Land managers across the country face the immense challenge of developing and applying appropriate management strategies as forests respond to climate change. We hosted a workshop to explore silvicultural strategies for addressing the uncertainties surrounding climate change and forest response in the northeastern and north-central United States. Outcomes of this...

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

Treesearch

Sarah F. Trainor; Monika Calef; David Natcher; F. Stuart Chapin; A. David McGuire; Orville Huntington; Paul Duffy; T. Scott Rupp; La' Ona DeWilde; Mary Kwart; Nancy Fresco; Amy Lauren Lovecraft

2009-01-01

We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources, and institutional connections...

Quantifying climate change impacts emphasises the importance of managing regional threats in the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin.

PubMed

Mattern, Thomas; Meyer, Stefan; Ellenberg, Ursula; Houston, David M; Darby, John T; Young, Melanie; van Heezik, Yolanda; Seddon, Philip J

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global issue with effects that are difficult to manage at a regional scale. Yet more often than not climate factors are just some of multiple stressors affecting species on a population level. Non-climatic factors-especially those of anthropogenic origins-may play equally important roles with regard to impacts on species and are often more feasible to address. Here we assess the influence of climate change on population trends of the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin ( Megadyptes antipodes ) over the last 30 years, using a Bayesian model. Sea surface temperature (SST) proved to be the dominating factor influencing survival of both adult birds and fledglings. Increasing SST since the mid-1990s was accompanied by a reduction in survival rates and population decline. The population model showed that 33% of the variation in population numbers could be explained by SST alone, significantly increasing pressure on the penguin population. Consequently, the population becomes less resilient to non-climate related impacts, such as fisheries interactions, habitat degradation and human disturbance. However, the extent of the contribution of these factors to declining population trends is extremely difficult to assess principally due to the absence of quantifiable data, creating a discussion bias towards climate variables, and effectively distracting from non-climate factors that can be managed on a regional scale to ensure the viability of the population.

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise.

PubMed

Kirwan, Matthew L; Megonigal, J Patrick

2013-12-05

Coastal populations and wetlands have been intertwined for centuries, whereby humans both influence and depend on the extensive ecosystem services that wetlands provide. Although coastal wetlands have long been considered vulnerable to sea-level rise, recent work has identified fascinating feedbacks between plant growth and geomorphology that allow wetlands to actively resist the deleterious effects of sea-level rise. Humans alter the strength of these feedbacks by changing the climate, nutrient inputs, sediment delivery and subsidence rates. Whether wetlands continue to survive sea-level rise depends largely on how human impacts interact with rapid sea-level rise, and socio-economic factors that influence transgression into adjacent uplands.

[Climatic change and skin: diagnostic and therapeutic challenges].

PubMed

Llamas-Velasco, M; García-Díez, A

2010-06-01

Scientifics are warning us about a global warming tendency and diminished rainfalls. Quantity, causes and human activity influence remain controversial. Warming could increase prevalence of some cutaneous pathology. Sensible skin and skin xerosis would be more prevalent if relative humidity decreases. Alterations of skin barrier;s function would increase seriousness and prevalence of atopic dermatitis. Furthermore, the higher UVB proportion reaching Earth's surface, in conjunction with increased sunbathing population habits, will increase cutaneous cancer and photoaging rates without a correct photoprotection. Also, habitats of some infectious diseases; vectors are changing. The facing of these problems will be a real challenge for the dermatologist, who will have a very important role on prevention, diagnoses and early treatment of them.

Depression Among Arab American and Arab Immigrant Women in the United States.

PubMed

Abuelezam, Nadia N; Fontenot, Holly B

The difficult and tense political climate Arab populations are currently facing may be exacerbating mental health issues, reducing forms of social support in friend circles, and decreasing the desire to seek health care. There is room to better understand the mental health needs of Arab women residing in the United States and to develop policies and interventions that keep these women safe and in care. This column reviews two recent studies; the first examines barriers to reporting intimate partner violence and depression among Arab American women and the second highlights stressors and social support for Arab women immigrants throughout their immigration experience. © 2017 AWHONN, the Association of Women’s Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

2015-01-01

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly inhospitable to pronghorn persistence. This realization informs and steers conservation and management decisions for pronghorn in North America, while exemplifying how similar research can aid ungulates inhabiting arid regions and confronting similar circumstances elsewhere.

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

PubMed Central

Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems. PMID:27362499

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

PubMed

Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems.

Wind conditions on migration influence the annual survival of a neotropical migrant, the western yellow-breasted chat (Icteria virens auricollis).

PubMed

Huang, Andrew C; Bishop, Christine A; McKibbin, René; Drake, Anna; Green, David J

2017-08-10

Long-distance migratory birds in North America have undergone precipitous declines over the past half-century. Although the trend is clear, for many migrating species underpinning the exact causes poses a challenge to conservation due to the numerous stressors that they encounter. Climate conditions during all phases of their annual cycle can have important consequences for their survival. Here, using 15 years of capture-recapture dataset, we determined the effects of various climate factors during the breeding, wintering, and migrating stages on the annual survival of a western yellow-breasted chat (Icteria virens auricollis) population breeding in southwestern Canada. El Niño effects over the entire annual cycle had little influence on the annual apparent survival of yellow-breasted chats. However, we found evidence that wind conditions during migration, specifically average westerly wind speed or the frequency of storm events, had significant adverse effects on adult annual apparent survival. In comparison, precipitation levels on wintering ground had little to no influence on adult annual apparent survival, whereas growing degree days on the breeding ground had moderate but positive effects. In the face of climate change and its predicted impacts on climate processes, understanding the influence of weather conditions on the survival of migrating birds can allow appropriate conservation strategies to be adopted for chats and other declining neotropical migrants.

Climate change in the classroom: Reaching out to middle school students through science and math suitcase lessons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobo, A. C.; Collay, R.; Harris, R. N.; de Silva, L.

2011-12-01

We have formed a link between the Increasing Diversity in Earth Sciences (IDES) program with the Science and Math Investigative Learning Experiences (SMILE) program, both at Oregon State University. The IDES mission is to strengthen the understanding of Earth Sciences and their relevance to society among broad and diverse segments of the population and the SMILE mission is to provide science and math enrichment for underrepresented and other educationally underserved students in grades 4-12. Traditionally, underserved schools do not have enough time or resources to spend on science and mathematics. Furthermore, numerous budget cuts in many Oregon school districts have negatively impacted math and science cirriculum. To combat this trend we have designed suitcase lessons in climate change that can be carried to a number of classrooms. These lesson plans are scientifically rich and economically attractive. These lessons are designed to engage students in math and science through climate change presentations, group discussions, and hands-on activities. Over the past year we have familiarized ourselves with the academic ability of sixth and seventh graders through in-class observation in Salem Oregon. One of the suit case lessons we developed focuses on climate change by exploring the plight of polar bears in the face of diminishing sea ice. Our presentation will report the results of this activity.

Climate policies under wealth inequality.

PubMed

Vasconcelos, Vítor V; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M; Levin, Simon A

2014-02-11

Taming the planet's climate requires cooperation. Previous failures to reach consensus in climate summits have been attributed, among other factors, to conflicting policies between rich and poor countries, which disagree on the implementation of mitigation measures. Here we implement wealth inequality in a threshold public goods dilemma of cooperation in which players also face the risk of potential future losses. We consider a population exhibiting an asymmetric distribution of rich and poor players that reflects the present-day status of nations and study the behavioral interplay between rich and poor in time, regarding their willingness to cooperate. Individuals are also allowed to exhibit a variable degree of homophily, which acts to limit those that constitute one's sphere of influence. Under the premises of our model, and in the absence of homophily, comparison between scenarios with wealth inequality and without wealth inequality shows that the former leads to more global cooperation than the latter. Furthermore, we find that the rich generally contribute more than the poor and will often compensate for the lower contribution of the latter. Contributions from the poor, which are crucial to overcome the climate change dilemma, are shown to be very sensitive to homophily, which, if prevalent, can lead to a collapse of their overall contribution. In such cases, however, we also find that obstinate cooperative behavior by a few poor may largely compensate for homophilic behavior.

Effects of late quaternary climate change on Palearctic shrews.

PubMed

Prost, Stefan; Klietmann, Johannes; van Kolfschoten, Thijs; Guralnick, Robert P; Waltari, Eric; Vrieling, Klaas; Stiller, Mathias; Nagel, Doris; Rabeder, Gernot; Hofreiter, Michael; Sommer, Robert S

2013-06-01

The Late Quaternary was a time of rapid climatic oscillations and drastic environmental changes. In general, species can respond to such changes by behavioral accommodation, distributional shifts, ecophenotypic modifications (nongenetic), evolution (genetic) or ultimately face local extinction. How those responses manifested in the past is essential for properly predicting future ones especially as the current warm phase is further intensified by rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here, we use ancient DNA (aDNA) and morphological features in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genetic and nongenetic responses of Central European Palearctic shrews to past climatic change. We show that a giant form of shrew, previously described as an extinct Pleistocene Sorex species, represents a large ecomorph of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), which was replaced by populations from a different gene-pool and with different morphology after the Pleistocene Holocene transition. We also report the presence of the cold-adapted tundra shrew (S. tundrensis) in Central Europe. This species is currently restricted to Siberia and was hitherto unknown as an element of the Pleistocene fauna of Europe. Finally, we show that there is no clear correlation between climatic oscillations within the last 50 000 years and body size in shrews and conclude that a special nonanalogous situation with regard to biodiversity and food supply in the Late Glacial may have caused the observed large body size. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Examining the effects of transportation governance on infrastructure adaptation to climate change.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

Transportation agencies across the United States are faced with the challenge of effectively : adapting infrastructure to withstand the predicted effects of climate change. This challenge is : magnified by a nationwide funding shortage, uncertainty a...

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

PubMed Central

Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T.; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

2014-01-01

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change. PMID:25404290

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

PubMed

Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

2014-12-02

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Tap water isotope ratios reflect urban water system structure and dynamics across a semiarid metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jameel, Yusuf; Brewer, Simon; Good, Stephen P.; Tipple, Brett J.; Ehleringer, James R.; Bowen, Gabriel J.

2016-08-01

Water extraction for anthropogenic use has become a major flux in the hydrological cycle. With increasing demand for water and challenges supplying it in the face of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand connections between human populations, climate, water extraction, water use, and its impacts. To understand these connections, we collected and analyzed stable isotopic ratios of more than 800 urban tap water samples in a series of semiannual water surveys (spring and fall, 2013-2015) across the Salt Lake Valley (SLV) of northern Utah. Consistent with previous work, we found that mean tap water had a lower 2H and 18O concentration than local precipitation, highlighting the importance of nearby montane winter precipitation as source water for the region. However, we observed strong and structured spatiotemporal variation in tap water isotopic compositions across the region which we attribute to complex distribution systems, varying water management practices and multiple sources used across the valley. Water from different sources was not used uniformly throughout the area and we identified significant correlation between water source and demographic parameters including population and income. Isotopic mass balance indicated significant interannual and intra-annual variability in water losses within the distribution network due to evaporation from surface water resources supplying the SLV. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of isotopes as an indicator of water management strategies and climate impacts within regional urban water systems, with potential utility for monitoring, regulation, forensic, and a range of water resource research.

Seasonal Variation in Population Abundance and Chytrid Infection in Stream-Dwelling Frogs of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

PubMed

Ruggeri, Joice; Longo, Ana V; Gaiarsa, Marília P; Alencar, Laura R V; Lambertini, Carolina; Leite, Domingos S; Carvalho-e-Silva, Sergio P; Zamudio, Kelly R; Toledo, Luís Felipe; Martins, Marcio

2015-01-01

Enigmatic amphibian declines were first reported in southern and southeastern Brazil in the late 1980s and included several species of stream-dwelling anurans (families Hylodidae and Cycloramphidae). At that time, we were unaware of the amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd); therefore, pollution, habitat loss, fragmentation and unusual climatic events were hypothesized as primary causes of these declines. We now know that multiple lineages of Bd have infected amphibians of the Brazilian Atlantic forest for over a century, yet declines have not been associated specifically with Bd outbreaks. Because stream-dwelling anurans occupy an environmental hotspot ideal for disease transmission, we investigated temporal variation in population and infection dynamics of three stream-adapted species (Hylodes asper, H. phyllodes, and Cycloramphus boraceiensis) on the northern coast of São Paulo state, Brazil. We surveyed standardized transects along streams for four years, and show that fluctuations in the number of frogs correlate with specific climatic variables that also increase the likelihood of Bd infections. In addition, we found that Bd infection probability in C. boraceiensis, a nocturnal species, was significantly higher than in Hylodes spp., which are diurnal, suggesting that the nocturnal activity may either facilitate Bd zoospore transmission or increase susceptibility of hosts. Our findings indicate that, despite long-term persistence of Bd in Brazil, some hosts persist with seasonally variable infections, and thus future persistence in the face of climate change will depend on the relative effect of those changes on frog recruitment and pathogen proliferation.

Seasonal Variation in Population Abundance and Chytrid Infection in Stream-Dwelling Frogs of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

PubMed Central

Ruggeri, Joice; Longo, Ana V.; Gaiarsa, Marília P.; Alencar, Laura R. V.; Lambertini, Carolina; Leite, Domingos S.; Carvalho-e-Silva, Sergio P.; Zamudio, Kelly R.; Toledo, Luís Felipe; Martins, Marcio

2015-01-01

Enigmatic amphibian declines were first reported in southern and southeastern Brazil in the late 1980s and included several species of stream-dwelling anurans (families Hylodidae and Cycloramphidae). At that time, we were unaware of the amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd); therefore, pollution, habitat loss, fragmentation and unusual climatic events were hypothesized as primary causes of these declines. We now know that multiple lineages of Bd have infected amphibians of the Brazilian Atlantic forest for over a century, yet declines have not been associated specifically with Bd outbreaks. Because stream-dwelling anurans occupy an environmental hotspot ideal for disease transmission, we investigated temporal variation in population and infection dynamics of three stream-adapted species (Hylodes asper, H. phyllodes, and Cycloramphus boraceiensis) on the northern coast of São Paulo state, Brazil. We surveyed standardized transects along streams for four years, and show that fluctuations in the number of frogs correlate with specific climatic variables that also increase the likelihood of Bd infections. In addition, we found that Bd infection probability in C. boraceiensis, a nocturnal species, was significantly higher than in Hylodes spp., which are diurnal, suggesting that the nocturnal activity may either facilitate Bd zoospore transmission or increase susceptibility of hosts. Our findings indicate that, despite long-term persistence of Bd in Brazil, some hosts persist with seasonally variable infections, and thus future persistence in the face of climate change will depend on the relative effect of those changes on frog recruitment and pathogen proliferation. PMID:26161777

Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

PubMed

Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

2016-12-01

Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

2014-12-01

The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

Climate Change Adaptation Challenges and EO Business Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Bansal, Rahul; Del Rey, Maria; Mohamed, Ebrahim; Ruiz, Paz; Signes, Marcos

Climate change is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century, but is no longer a matter of just scientific concern. It encompasses economics, sociology, global politics as well as national and local politics, law, health and environmental security, etc. The challenge of facing the impacts of climate change is often framed in terms of two potential paths that civilization might take: mitigation and adaptation. On the one hand, mitigation involves reducing the magnitude of climate change itself and is composed of emissions reductions and geoengineering. On the other hand and by contrast, adaptation involves efforts to limit our vulnerability to climate change impacts through various measures. It refers to our ability to adjust ourselves to climate change -including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Therefore, we are now faced with a double challenge: next to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, we also need to adapt to the changing climate conditions. The use of satellites to monitor processes and trends at the global scale is essential in the context of climate change. Earth Observation has the potential to improve our predictive vision and to advance climate models. Space sciences and technologies constitute a significant issue in Education and Public Awareness of Science. Space missions face the probably largest scientific and industrial challenges of humanity. It is thus a fact that space drives innovation in the major breakthrough and cutting edge technological advances of mankind (techniques, processes, new products, … as well as in markets and business models). Technology and innovation is the basis of all space activities. Space agencies offer an entire range of space-related activities - from space science and environmental monitoring to industrial competitiveness and end-user services. More specifically, Earth Observation satellites have a unique global view of planet Earth, providing us -with better data- with consistent and frequent information on the state of our environment at the regional and global scale, also in important but remote areas. Climate Knowledge and Innovation Communities (Climate-KIC), a relatively new initiative from the European Institute of Innovation & Technology (EIT), provides the innovations, entrepreneurship, education and expert guidance needed to shape Europe's climate change agenda. This paper shows some initiatives that the University of Valencia Climate-KIC Education Group is carrying out in collaboration with the Climate-KIC Central Education Lead in the field of space education to foster and encourage students and entrepreneurs to endevour in these new space business opportunities offered by this step forward towards climate change adaptation challenges.

Mediterranean agriculture: More efficient irrigation needed to compensate increases in future irrigation water requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, Marianela; Shi, Sinan; von Bloh, Werner; Bondeau, Alberte; Cramer, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. Our research shows that, at present, Mediterranean region could save 35% of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems. Some countries like Syria, Egypt and Turkey have higher saving potentials than others. Currently some crops, especially sugar cane and agricultural trees, consume in average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops (1). Also under climate change, more efficient irrigation is of vital importance for counteracting increases in irrigation water requirements. The Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4% and 18% from climate change alone by the end of the century if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved. Population growth increases these numbers to 22% and 74%, respectively, affecting mainly the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have large water saving potentials, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, and may be able to compensate to some degree the increases due to climate change and population growth. Both subregions would need around 35% more water than today if they could afford some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect (1). However, in some scenarios (in this case as combinations of climate change, irrigation technology, influence of population growth and CO2-fertilization effect) water scarcity may constrain the supply of the irrigation water needed in future in Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain (1). In this study, vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL ("Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land") after a large development that comprised the improved representation of Mediterranean crops (2). References: (1) Fader, M., von Bloh, W., Shi, S., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W. (2015) : Mediterranean irrigation under climate change : More efficient irrigation needed to compensate increases in irrigation water requirements. HESSD 12, 8459-8504. (2) Fader, M., von Bloh, W., Shi, S., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W. (2015) : Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3545-3561, 2015.

Assisted migration of forest populations for adapting trees to climate change

Treesearch

Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero; Roberto A. Lindig-Cisneros; Dennis G. Joyce; Jean Beaulieu; J. Bradley St. Clair; Barry C. Jaquish

2016-01-01

We present evidence that climatic change is an ongoing process and that forest tree populations are genetically differentiated for quantitative traits because of adaptation to specific habitats. We discuss in detail indications that the shift of suitable climatic habitat for forest tree species and populations, as a result of rapid climatic change, is likely to cause...

Climate, weather, and hops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

NOAA's Regional Climate Services Program: Building Relationships with Partners and Customers to Deliver Trusted Climate Information at Usable Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mecray, E. L.; Dissen, J.

2016-12-01

Federal agencies across multiple sectors from transportation to health, emergency management and agriculture, are now requiring their key stakeholders to identify and plan for climate-related impacts. Responding to the drumbeat for climate services at the regional and local scale, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formed its Regional Climate Services (RCS) program to include Regional Climate Services Directors (RCSD), Regional Climate Centers, and state climatologists in a partnership. Since 2010, the RCS program has engaged customers across the country and amongst many of the nation's key economic sectors to compile information requirements, deliver climate-related products and services, and build partnerships among federal agencies and their regional climate entities. The talk will include a sketch from the Eastern Region that may shed light on the interaction of the multiple entities working at the regional scale. Additionally, we will show examples of our interagency work with the Department of Interior, the Department of Agriculture, and others in NOAA to deliver usable and trusted climate information and resources. These include webinars, print material, and face-to-face customer engagements to gather and respond to information requirements. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information's RCSDs work on-the-ground to learn from customers about their information needs and their use of existing tools and resources. As regional leads, the RCSDs work within NOAA and with our regional partners to ensure the customer receives a broad picture of the tools and information from across the nation.

Violence in paradise: Cranial trauma in the prehispanic population of Gran Canaria (Canary Islands).

PubMed

Delgado-Darias, Teresa; Alberto-Barroso, Verónica; Velasco-Vázquez, Javier

2018-05-01

This paper addresses the prevalence and pattern of physical violence in the prehispanic society of Gran Canaria and discusses its link with the social structure and insular context in which that people lived. 347 prehispanic crania from Guayadeque Ravine (575-1415 AD) have been examined in order to determine the frequency, types, location, and timing of trauma. Craniofacial injuries are present in 27.4% of the crania examined. Only 2% display perimortem trauma. Most of the injuries (84.3%) correspond to depressed blunt force trauma, with an ellipsoidal or circular shape. Most of these are in the anterior aspect of the cranium. Males are significantly more affected than females. The aboriginal population of Gran Canaria show a high frequency of traumatic injuries to the skull compared to other archaeological groups. Their frequent location in the anterior aspect suggests regular face-to-face confrontations. However, the lethal injuries typically occurring in large-scale combat are scarce. Practices such as ritualized combat, mentioned in ethnohistorical sources, would help to channel and mitigate inter-group conflict. The predominance of depressed blunt force trauma is in accordance with the weapons used by those populations: hand-thrown stones, clubs and sticks. The higher frequency in males indicates that they took part in direct violence more than females did. The hierarchical organization of their society may have led to frequent situations of conflict. The insular nature of a territory barely 1,500 m 2 in size was a determining factor in competition for access to food resources, especially at times of climate crises or population growth. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Neural Representations of Personally Familiar and Unfamiliar Faces in the Anterior Inferior Temporal Cortex of Monkeys

PubMed Central

Eifuku, Satoshi; De Souza, Wania C.; Nakata, Ryuzaburo; Ono, Taketoshi; Tamura, Ryoi

2011-01-01

To investigate the neural representations of faces in primates, particularly in relation to their personal familiarity or unfamiliarity, neuronal activities were chronically recorded from the ventral portion of the anterior inferior temporal cortex (AITv) of macaque monkeys during the performance of a facial identification task using either personally familiar or unfamiliar faces as stimuli. By calculating the correlation coefficients between neuronal responses to the faces for all possible pairs of faces given in the task and then using the coefficients as neuronal population-based similarity measures between the faces in pairs, we analyzed the similarity/dissimilarity relationship between the faces, which were potentially represented by the activities of a population of the face-responsive neurons recorded in the area AITv. The results showed that, for personally familiar faces, different identities were represented by different patterns of activities of the population of AITv neurons irrespective of the view (e.g., front, 90° left, etc.), while different views were not represented independently of their facial identities, which was consistent with our previous report. In the case of personally unfamiliar faces, the faces possessing different identities but presented in the same frontal view were represented as similar, which contrasts with the results for personally familiar faces. These results, taken together, outline the neuronal representations of personally familiar and unfamiliar faces in the AITv neuronal population. PMID:21526206

Climate change and outdoor recreation participation in the Southern United States

Treesearch

J.M. Bowker; Ashley E. Askew; Neelam Poudyal; Stanley J. Zarnoch; Lynne Seymour; H. Ken Cordell

2014-01-01

In this chapter we begin to assess the potential effects of climate change on future outdoor recreation in the South, a region spanning 13 states from Virginia to Texas (Chapter 1). Our goal is to provide some useful insights about future natural resource-based recreation-an important nontimber product derived from southern forests-in the face of climate change. We...

Complex challenges of maintaining whitebark pine in Greater Yellowstone under climate change: A call for innovative research, management, and policy approaches

Treesearch

Andrew Hansen; Kathryn Ireland; Kristin Legg; Robert Keane; Edward Barge; Martha Jenkins; Michiel Pillet

2016-01-01

Climate suitability is projected to decline for many subalpine species, raising questions about managing species under a deteriorating climate. Whitebark pine (WBP) (Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) crystalizes the challenges that natural resource managers of many high mountain ecosystems will likely face in the coming decades. We...

A new way to study the changing Arctic ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hubbard, Susan

2011-09-12

Berkeley Lab scientists Susan Hubbard and Margaret Torn discuss the proposed Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, which is designed to answer one of the most urgent questions facing researchers today: How will a changing climate impact the Arctic, and how will this in turn impact the planet's climate? More info: http://newscenter.lbl.gov/feature-stories/2011/09/14/alaska-climate-change/

Cascabel prescribed fire long-term watershed study: an opportunity to monitor climate change

Treesearch

Gerald Gottfried; Daniel Neary; Peter Ffolliott; Karen Koestner

2012-01-01

Experimental watershed studies can provide answers to new challenges facing land managers and society including the impacts of fires and climate change on upstream and regional hydrology. The Cascabel Watersheds long-term prescribed fire study provides a unique opportunity to monitor climate change because of its location in an oak savanna situated between deserts or...

A new way to study the changing Arctic ecosystem

ScienceCinema

Hubbard, Susan

2017-12-09

Berkeley Lab scientists Susan Hubbard and Margaret Torn discuss the proposed Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, which is designed to answer one of the most urgent questions facing researchers today: How will a changing climate impact the Arctic, and how will this in turn impact the planet's climate? More info: http://newscenter.lbl.gov/feature-stories/2011/09/14/alaska-climate-change/

Climate-induced changes in vulnerability to biological threats in the southern United States

Treesearch

Rabiu Olatinwo; Qinfeng Guo; Songlin Fei; William Otrosina; Kier Klepzig; Douglas Streett

2014-01-01

Forest land managers face the challenges of preparing their forests for the impacts of climate change. However, climate change adds a new dimension to the task of developing and testing science-based management options to deal with the effects of stressors on forest ecosystems in the southern United States. The large spatial scale and complex interactions make...

California golden trout and climate change: Is their stream habitat vulnerable to climate warming?

Treesearch

Kathleen R. Matthews

2010-01-01

The California golden trout (CGT) Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita is one of the few native high-elevation fish in the Sierra Nevada. They are already in trouble because of exotic trout, genetic introgression, and degraded habitat, and now face further stress from climate warming. Their native habitat on the Kern Plateau meadows mostly in the Golden...

In the Face of Anti-LGBQ Behaviour: Saskatchewan High School Students' Perceptions of School Climate and Consequential Impact

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Melanie A.; Jewell, Lisa; McCutcheon, Jessica; Cochrane, Donald B.

2014-01-01

In Canada, there is a dearth of research on school climate for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and questioning (LGBQ) students. Using social networking, 60 students from high schools in Saskatchewan participated in a climate survey. Results indicated that anti-LGBQ speech was widespread, as were other forms of harassment. The more victimization that was…

Stakeholder-based evaluation categories for regional climate services - a case study at the German Baltic Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinke, Insa

2017-08-01

In this study, categories, dimensions, and criteria for evaluating regional climate services are derived by a participatory approach with potential service users at the German Baltic Sea coast. The development is carried out within nine face-to-face interviews conducted with decision makers, working in climate sensitive sectors at the German Baltic Sea coast. Three main groups of categories were localized which seem to matter most to the considered stakeholders and which seem to be crucial evaluation categories for regional climate services: (1) credibility, (2) relevance, and (3) appropriateness. For each of these evaluation categories several dimensions emerged, indicating certain perspectives of stakeholder demands. When summarizing these evaluation categories and their dimensions, 13 evaluation criteria for regional climate services can be derived (see Table 1). The results show that stakeholders do mainly address components other than those found in the literature (e.g. inputs, process, outputs, outcomes, and impacts). This might indicate that an evaluation, following solely literature-based (non-participative) components, is not sufficient to localize deficiencies or efficiencies within a regional climate service, since it might lead to results which are not relevant for potential users.

Online matchmaking: It's not just for dating sites anymore! Connecting the Climate Voices Science Speakers Network to Educators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, K.; Herrin, S.; Schmidt, C.

2015-12-01

Scientists play an integral role in the development of climate literacy skills - for both teachers and students alike. By partnering with local scientists, teachers can gain valuable insights into the science practices highlighted by the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), as well as a deeper understanding of cutting-edge scientific discoveries and local impacts of climate change. For students, connecting to local scientists can provide a relevant connection to climate science and STEM skills. Over the past two years, the Climate Voices Science Speakers Network (climatevoices.org) has grown to a robust network of nearly 400 climate science speakers across the United States. Formal and informal educators, K-12 students, and community groups connect with our speakers through our interactive map-based website and invite them to meet through face-to-face and virtual presentations, such as webinars and podcasts. But creating a common language between scientists and educators requires coaching on both sides. In this presentation, we will present the "nitty-gritty" of setting up scientist-educator collaborations, as well as the challenges and opportunities that arise from these partnerships. We will share the impact of these collaborations through case studies, including anecdotal feedback and metrics.

Online Matchmaking: It's Not Just for Dating Sites Anymore! Connecting the Climate Voices Science Speakers Network to Educators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wegner, Kristin; Herrin, Sara; Schmidt, Cynthia

2015-01-01

Scientists play an integral role in the development of climate literacy skills - for both teachers and students alike. By partnering with local scientists, teachers can gain valuable insights into the science practices highlighted by the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), as well as a deeper understanding of cutting-edge scientific discoveries and local impacts of climate change. For students, connecting to local scientists can provide a relevant connection to climate science and STEM skills. Over the past two years, the Climate Voices Science Speakers Network (climatevoices.org) has grown to a robust network of nearly 400 climate science speakers across the United States. Formal and informal educators, K-12 students, and community groups connect with our speakers through our interactive map-based website and invite them to meet through face-to-face and virtual presentations, such as webinars and podcasts. But creating a common language between scientists and educators requires coaching on both sides. In this presentation, we will present the "nitty-gritty" of setting up scientist-educator collaborations, as well as the challenges and opportunities that arise from these partnerships. We will share the impact of these collaborations through case studies, including anecdotal feedback and metrics.

Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua; Watson, James; Game, Edward

2015-01-01

An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation-a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems.

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

PubMed Central

Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-01-01

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war–peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. PMID:18048343

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

PubMed

Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-12-04

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

2007-12-01

In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to degenerate. To concern about those items, the sustainable early warning system is established and the initiative fall into the following categories: considering the implications for policies, applying adaptive strategies and informing the new climate changes. By setting up the framework of early warning system expectantly can defend stream area from impacts damaging and in sure the sustainable development.

Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition.

PubMed

Myers, Samuel S; Smith, Matthew R; Guth, Sarah; Golden, Christopher D; Vaitla, Bapu; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Dangour, Alan D; Huybers, Peter

2017-03-20

Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.

Range-wide reproductive consequences of ocean climate variability for the seabird Cassin's Auklet.

PubMed

Wolf, Shaye G; Sydeman, William J; Hipfner, J Mark; Abraham, Christine L; Tershy, Bernie R; Croll, Donald A

2009-03-01

We examine how ocean climate variability influences the reproductive phenology and demography of the seabird Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) across approximately 2500 km of its breeding range in the oceanographically dynamic California Current System along the west coast of North America. Specifically, we determine the extent to which ocean climate conditions and Cassin's Auklet timing of breeding and breeding success covary across populations in British Columbia, central California, and northern Mexico over six years (2000-2005) and test whether auklet timing of breeding and breeding success are similarly related to local and large-scale ocean climate indices across populations. Local ocean foraging environments ranged from seasonally variable, high-productivity environments in the north to aseasonal, low-productivity environments to the south, but covaried similarly due to the synchronizing effects of large-scale climate processes. Auklet timing of breeding in the southern population did not covary with populations to the north and was not significantly related to local oceanographic conditions, in contrast to northern populations, where timing of breeding appears to be influenced by oceanographic cues that signal peaks in prey availability. Annual breeding success covaried similarly across populations and was consistently related to local ocean climate conditions across this system. Overall, local ocean climate indices, particularly sea surface height, better explained timing of breeding and breeding success than a large-scale climate index by better representing heterogeneity in physical processes important to auklets and their prey. The significant, consistent relationships we detected between Cassin's Auklet breeding success and ocean climate conditions across widely spaced populations indicate that Cassin's Auklets are susceptible to climate change across the California Current System, especially by the strengthening of climate processes that synchronize oceanographic conditions. Auklet populations in the northern and central regions of this ecosystem may be more sensitive to changes in the timing and variability of ocean climate conditions since they appear to time breeding to take advantage of seasonal productivity peaks.

Increased SST and Frequent Occurrence of Rough Sea Events in the Bay of Bengal: Implications for livelihoods of Coastal Populace in Bangladesh (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, A. U.

2010-12-01

Bangladesh is a densely populated low-lying deltaic country, widely known to be highly vulnerable to climate change. High vulnerability is caused mainly by geophysical factors, compounded by a number of social and economic factors such as large population, high incidence of poverty and malnutrition, glaring social inequity, and poor governance. The coastal zone facing the Bay of Bengal is particularly vulnerable to hazards such as sea level rise, salinity intrusion, high wave interaction and erosion, saline water-logging, and cyclonic storm surges. The sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern Indian Ocean has recently been exhibiting a general increasing trend, with a net rise of about 0.45°C over the past four decades. This has been attributed to climate change. The warming, identified by marked increase in SST, has been causing a significant increase in the formation of ‘low pressures’ to ‘deep depressions’ in the bay. Consequently, the tidal activities on the surface have become rough and turbulent, triggering a number of problems for the livelihoods of coastal population of Bangladesh. The coastal fisherfolk communities represent poorest of the poor, who can hardly earn a livelihood from traditional fishing practices. Their prime fishing period coincides with Monsoon and post-monsoon seasons combined, when the bay becomes rough, turbulent, and unsuitable for artisanal fishing. With increasing frequency of occurrence of ‘rough sea events’, the coastal fishermen are forced to stay out of action in anticipation of complete loss of investment made for fishing trips or forced to abandon incomplete fishing trips - the latter causing heavy financial losses. As a consequence of too many incomplete fishing trips and scanty return from subsequent investments, livelihoods of coastal fisherfolk have been devastated. Coastal farmers have been maintaining their livelihoods, where the state invested for building surge protecting embankments to offer ‘safe cultivation’ opportunities since the 1960s. With the increased frequency of rough sea events and high energy wave interactions, combined with poor management of embankments, there have been repeated incidences of embankment failure, erosion and subsequent saline inundation. Such events generally wreck havoc in the affected areas, while crop lands suddenly become unsuitable for cropping, thereby devastating farming-based livelihoods. Climate change and sea level rise have already posed significant risks to coastal livelihoods in Bangladesh. Farming and capture fisheries are the two most dominant forms of livelihoods along the coastal zone. Both forms of livelihoods are now facing tremendous challenges. Due to successive crop loss and losses incurred from abandoned fishing trips, not only that people has become significantly indebted to local money-lenders, a social survey revealed that the poor in general are contemplating out migration to find alternative livelihoods in urban areas. Meanwhile the government has been investing large amounts to run social safety net programs. The economic and social toll of adapting to climate change is becoming much higher than estimated earlier.

Climate change can alter predator-prey dynamics and population viability of prey.

PubMed

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Schaefer, James A; Peers, Michael J L; Ellington, E Hance; Mumma, Matthew A; Rayl, Nathaniel D; Mahoney, Shane P; Murray, Dennis L

2018-01-01

For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990-2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator-prey interactions. We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate-predator interactions.

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

Geographic variation in responses of European yellow dung flies to thermal stress.

PubMed

Bauerfeind, Stephanie S; Sørensen, Jesper G; Loeschcke, Volker; Berger, David; Broder, E Dale; Geiger, Madeleine; Ferrari, Manuela; Blanckenhorn, Wolf U

2018-04-01

Climatic conditions can be very heterogeneous even over small geographic scales, and are believed to be major determinants of the abundance and distribution of species and populations. Organisms are expected to evolve in response to the frequency and magnitude of local thermal extremes, resulting in local adaptation. Using replicate yellow dung fly (Scathophaga stercoraria; Diptera: Scathophagidae) populations from cold (northern Europe) and warm climates (southern Europe), we compared 1) responses to short-term heat and cold shocks in both sexes, 2) heat shock protein (Hsp70) expression in adults and eggs, and 3) female reproductive traits when facing short-term heat stress during egg maturation. Contrary to expectations, thermal traits showed minor geographic differentiation, with weak evidence for greater heat resistance of southern flies but no differentiation in cold resistance. Hsp70 protein expression was little affected by heat stress, indicating systemic rather than induced regulation of the heat stress response, possibly related to this fly group's preference for cold climes. In contrast, sex differences were pronounced: males (which are larger) endured hot temperatures longer, while females featured higher Hsp70 expression. Heat stress negatively affected various female reproductive traits, reducing first clutch size, overall reproductive investment, egg lipid content, and subsequent larval hatching. These responses varied little across latitude but somewhat among populations in terms of egg size, protein content, and larval hatching success. Several reproductive parameters, but not Hsp70 expression, exhibited heritable variation among full-sib families. Rather than large-scale clinal geographic variation, our study suggests some local geographic population differentiation in the ability of yellow dung flies to buffer the impact of heat stress on reproductive performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sentinels in a climatic outpost: Endoparasites in the introduced muskox (Ovibos moschatus wardi) population of Dovrefjell, Norway

PubMed Central

Davidson, Rebecca K.; Amundsen, Hanne; Lie, Nora Oftenes; Luyckx, Katrien; Robertson, Lucy J.; Verocai, Guilherme G.; Kutz, Susan J.; Ytrehus, Bjørnar

2014-01-01

We assessed the occurrence of endoparasite eggs, cysts, oocysts and larvae in the muskox population of Dovrefjell, Norway, during June and August 2012. This population originates from 13 calves translocated from Eastern Greenland during the 1950s. A total of 167 faecal samples were collected, of which 49% came from identified individuals: 165 were examined by the Baermann and 95 by McMaster techniques and 167 by immunofluorescence antibody test (IFAT). Lungworm larvae recovered in the Baermanns were identified as Protostrongylidae (82%) and Dictyocaulus sp. (76%) based on morphology. Further molecular analyses of the ITS-2 region of two protostrongylid larvae from two muskoxen as Muellerius capillaris. Larval prevalence and intensity differed significantly between samples collected from the different age groups in June and August, with increasing prevalence and intensity in calves during the course of their first summer, whereas intensity decreased in adults from June to August. McMaster test and IFAT were used to determine the occurrence of infections with intestinal strongyles (84%), Moniezia spp. (24%), Nematodirus sp. (2%), Eimeria spp. (98%), Cryptosporidium sp. (14%) and Giardia duodenalis (7%). Molecular analyses of three isolates of Cryptosporidium and Giardia were identified as Cryptosporidium xiaoi and G. duodenalis assemblage A. Although infection intensity of all these intestinal parasites tended to be low, the high level of polyparasitism, together with the other challenges faced by this population living at the edge of their climatic range, means that these infections should not be ignored. The potential that M. capillaris, Cryptosporidium and Giardia infections derive from other sympatric host species (sheep and reindeer) is discussed. PMID:25161914

Contrasting effects of climate change in continental vs. oceanic environments on population persistence and microevolution of Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Piou, Cyril; Prévost, Etienne

2013-03-01

Facing climate change (CC), species are prone to multiple modifications in their environment that can lead to extinction, migration or adaptation. Identifying the role and interplay of different potential stressors becomes a key question. Anadromous fishes will be exposed to both river and oceanic habitat changes. For Atlantic salmon, the river water temperature, river flow and oceanic growth conditions appear as three main stressing factors. They could act on population dynamics or as selective forces on life-history pathways. Using an individual-based demo-genetic model, we assessed the effects of these factors (1) to compare risks of extinction resulting from CC in river and ocean, and (2) to assess CC effects on life-history pathways including the evolution of underlying genetic control of phenotypic plasticity. We focused on Atlantic salmon populations from Southern Europe for a time horizon of three decades. We showed that CC in river alone should not lead to extinction of Southern European salmon populations. In contrast, the reduced oceanic growth appeared as a significant threat for population persistence. An increase in river flow amplitude increased the risk of local extinction in synergy with the oceanic effects, but river temperature rise reduced this risk. In terms of life-history modifications, the reduced oceanic growth increased the age of return of individuals through plastic and genetic responses. The river temperature rise increased the proportion of sexually mature parr, but the genetic evolution of the maturation threshold lowered the maturation rate of male parr. This was identified as a case of environmentally driven plastic response that masked an underlying evolutionary response of plasticity going in the opposite direction. We concluded that to counteract oceanic effects, river flow management represented the sole potential force to reduce the extinction probability of Atlantic salmon populations in Southern Europe, although this might not impede changes in migration life history. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Climate Disruption Challenge for Water Security in a Growing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxton, L. J.; Nix, M.; Ihde, A.; MacDonald, L. H.; Parker, C.; Schaefer, R. K.; Weiss, M.; Babin, S. M.; Swartz, W. H.; Schloman, J.

2012-12-01

Climate disruption, the increasingly large and erratic departures of weather and climate from the benign conditions of the last one hundred years, is the greatest challenge to the long-term stability of world governments. Population growth, food and water security, energy supplies, and economic factors are, to some degree, within the control of governance and policy and all of these are impacted by climate disruption. Climate disruption, on the other hand, is not amenable to direct modification on the short timescales that commonly dictate governmental policy and human response. Global average temperatures will continue to increase even if there were immediate, profound changes in emission scenarios. Policy makers are faced with the very practical and immediate problem of determining what can one reasonably do to ameliorate the impact of climate disruption. The issue from a policy viewpoint is: how does one make effective policy when faced with a situation in which there are varied viewpoints in competition. How does one establish a consensus for action? What information "speaks" to policy makers? Water security is one such issue and provides an important, immediate, and tangible device to use when we examine how one can determine what policies can be effectively pursued. The Global Assimilation of Information for Action (GAIA) project creates a support environment to address the impact of climate disruption on global, national, regional, and/or local interests. The basic research community is concerned with the scientific aspects of predicting climate change in terms of environmental parameters such as rainfall, temperature and humidity while decision makers must deal with planning for a world that may be very different from the one we have grown accustomed to. Decision makers must deal with the long-term impacts on public health, agriculture, economic productivity, security, extreme weather, etc in an environment that has come to focus on short-term issues. To complicate matters, the information available from the climate studies community is couched in terms of model projections with "uncertainties" and a choice of emission scenarios that are often expressed in terms of the results of computer simulations and model output. GAIA develops actionable information and explores the interactions of policy and practice. Part of this framework is the development of "games". These realistic games include the elements of both agent-based and role simulation games in which subject matter experts interact in a realistic scenario to explore courses of action and their outcomes based on realistic, projected environments. We will present examples of some of the past work done at APL and examples of collaborative or competitive games that could be used to explore climate disruption in terms of social, political, and economic impacts. These games provide immediate, "tactile" experience of the implications of a choice of policy. In this talk we will suggest how this tool can be applied to problems like the Colorado River Basin or the Brahmaputra.

Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

Treesearch

Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

2016-01-01

Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

Long-term trends in climate and hydrology in an agricultural headwater watershed of central Pennsylvania, USA

Treesearch

Ray B. Bryant; Haiming Lu; Kyle R. Elkin; Anthony R. Buda; Amy S. Collick; Gordon J. Folmar; Peter J. Kleinman

2016-01-01

Climate change has emerged as a key issue facing agriculture and water resources in the US. Long-term (1968-2012) temperature, precipitation and streamflow data from a small (7.3 km2) watershed in east-central Pennsylvania was used to examine climatic and hydrologic trends in the context of recent climate change. Annual mean temperatures increased 0.38°C per decade,...

Linking Student Achievement and Teacher Science Content Knowledge about Climate Change: Ensuring the Nations 3 Million Teachers Understand the Science through an Electronic Professional Development System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F.; Byers, A.

2009-12-01

The scientific complexities of global climate change, with wide-ranging economic and social significance, create an intellectual challenge that mandates greater public understanding of climate change research and the concurrent ability to make informed decisions. The critical need for an engaged, science literate public has been repeatedly emphasized by multi-disciplinary entities like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Academies (Rising Above the Gathering Storm report), and the interagency group responsible for the recently updated Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science. There is a clear need for an American public that is climate literate and for K-12 teachers confident in teaching relevant science content. A key goal in the creation of a climate literate society is to enhance teachers’ knowledge of global climate change through a national, scalable, and sustainable professional development system, using compelling climate science data and resources to stimulate inquiry-based student interest in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). This session will explore innovative e-learning technologies to address the limitations of one-time, face-to-face workshops, thereby adding significant sustainability and scalability. The resources developed will help teachers sift through the vast volume of global climate change information and provide research-based, high-quality science content and pedagogical information to help teachers effectively teach their students about the complex issues surrounding global climate change. The Learning Center is NSTA's e-professional development portal to help the nations teachers and informal educators learn about the scientific complexities of global climate change through research-based techniques and is proven to significantly improve teacher science content knowledge.

Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

PubMed

Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

2017-12-01

Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

The non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate drive the geographical patterns of waterfowl survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Qing; Boomer, G. Scott; Kendall, William L.

2018-01-01

On-going climate change has major impacts on ecological processes and patterns. Understanding the impacts of climate on the geographical patterns of survival can provide insights to how population dynamics respond to climate change and provide important information for the development of appropriate conservation strategies at regional scales. It is challenging to understand the impacts of climate on survival, however, due to the fact that the non-linear relationship between survival and climate can be modified by density-dependent processes. In this study we extended the Brownie model to partition hunting and non-hunting mortalities and linked non-hunting survival to covariates. We applied this model to four decades (1972–2014) of waterfowl band-recovery, breeding population survey, and precipitation and temperature data covering multiple ecological regions to examine the non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate on waterfowl non-hunting survival at a regional scale. Our results showed that the non-linear effect of temperature on waterfowl non-hunting survival was modified by breeding population density. The concave relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature suggested that the effects of warming on waterfowl survival might be multifaceted. Furthermore, the relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature was stronger when population density was higher, suggesting that high-density populations may be less buffered against warming than low-density populations. Our study revealed distinct relationships between waterfowl non-hunting survival and climate across and within ecological regions, highlighting the importance of considering different conservation strategies according to region-specific population and climate conditions. Our findings and associated novel modelling approach have wide implications in conservation practice.

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

2016-01-01

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE PAGES

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; ...

2017-07-21

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Womeldorff, P.J.

1995-12-31

This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

Appropriate technology and climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gomez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Climate change is emerging as the greatest significant environmental problem for the 21st Century and the most important global challenge faced by human kind. Based on evidence recognized by the international scientific community, climate change is already an unquestionable reality, whose first effects are beginning to be measured. Available climate projections and models can assist in anticipating potential far-reaching consequences for development processes. Climatic transformations will impact the environment, biodiversity and water resources, putting several productive processes at risk; and will represent a threat to public health and water availability in quantity and quality.