Historical processes and contemporary ocean currents drive genetic structure in the seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in the Indo-Australian Archipelago.

PubMed

Hernawan, Udhi E; van Dijk, Kor-Jent; Kendrick, Gary A; Feng, Ming; Biffin, Edward; Lavery, Paul S; McMahon, Kathryn

2017-02-01

Understanding spatial patterns of gene flow and genetic structure is essential for the conservation of marine ecosystems. Contemporary ocean currents and historical isolation due to Pleistocene sea level fluctuations have been predicted to influence the genetic structure in marine populations. In the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA), the world's hotspot of marine biodiversity, seagrasses are a vital component but population genetic information is very limited. Here, we reconstructed the phylogeography of the seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in the IAA based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and then characterized the genetic structure based on a panel of 16 microsatellite markers. We further examined the relative importance of historical isolation and contemporary ocean currents in driving the patterns of genetic structure. Results from SNPs revealed three population groups: eastern Indonesia, western Indonesia (Sunda Shelf) and Indian Ocean; while the microsatellites supported five population groups (eastern Indonesia, Sunda Shelf, Lesser Sunda, Western Australia and Indian Ocean). Both SNPs and microsatellites showed asymmetrical gene flow among population groups with a trend of southwestward migration from eastern Indonesia. Genetic diversity was generally higher in eastern Indonesia and decreased southwestward. The pattern of genetic structure and connectivity is attributed partly to the Pleistocene sea level fluctuations modified to a smaller level by contemporary ocean currents. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Selection on female behaviour fluctuates with offspring environment.

PubMed

Taylor, R W; Boutin, S; Humphries, M M; McAdam, A G

2014-11-01

Temporal variation in selection has long been proposed as a mechanism by which genetic variation could be maintained despite short-term strong directional selection and has been invoked to explain the maintenance of consistent individual differences in behaviour. We tested the hypothesis that ecological changes through time lead to fluctuating selection, which could promote the maintenance of variation in female behavioural traits in a wild population of North American red squirrels. As predicted, linear selection gradients on female aggression and activity significantly fluctuated across years depending on the level of competition among juveniles for vacant territories. This selection acted primarily through juvenile overwinter survival rather than maternal fecundity. Incorporating uncertainty in individual measures of behaviour reduced the magnitude of annual selection gradients and increased uncertainty in these estimates, but did not affect the overall pattern of temporal fluctuations in natural selection that coincided with the intensity of competition for vacant territories. These temporal fluctuations in selection might, therefore, promote the maintenance of heritable individual differences in behaviour in this wild red squirrel population. © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Adult sex ratios and partner scarcity among hunter-gatherers: implications for dispersal patterns and the evolution of human sociality.

PubMed

Kramer, Karen L; Schacht, Ryan; Bell, Adrian

2017-09-19

Small populations are susceptible to high genetic loads and random fluctuations in birth and death rates. While these selective forces can adversely affect their viability, small populations persist across taxa. Here, we investigate the resilience of small groups to demographic uncertainty, and specifically to fluctuations in adult sex ratio (ASR), partner availability and dispersal patterns. Using 25 years of demographic data for two Savannah Pumé groups of South American hunter-gatherers, we show that in small human populations: (i) ASRs fluctuate substantially from year to year, but do not consistently trend in a sex-biased direction; (ii) the primary driver of local variation in partner availability is stochasticity in the sex ratio at maturity; and (iii) dispersal outside of the group is an important behavioural means to mediate locally constrained mating options. To then simulate conditions under which dispersal outside of the local group may have evolved, we develop two mathematical models. Model results predict that if the ASR is biased, the globally rarer sex should disperse. The model's utility is then evaluated by applying our empirical data to this central prediction. The results are consistent with the observed hunter-gatherer pattern of variation in the sex that disperses. Together, these findings offer an alternative explanation to resource provisioning for the evolution of traits central to human sociality (e.g. flexible dispersal, bilocal post-marital residence and cooperation across local groups). We argue that in small populations, looking outside of one's local group is necessary to find a mate and that, motivated by ASR imbalance, the alliances formed to facilitate the movement of partners are an important foundation for the human-typical pattern of network formation across local groups.This article is part of the themed issue 'Adult sex ratios and reproductive decisions: a critical re-examination of sex differences in human and animal societies'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Characterizing the roles of changing population size and selection on the evolution of flux control in metabolic pathways.

PubMed

Orlenko, Alena; Chi, Peter B; Liberles, David A

2017-05-25

Understanding the genotype-phenotype map is fundamental to our understanding of genomes. Genes do not function independently, but rather as part of networks or pathways. In the case of metabolic pathways, flux through the pathway is an important next layer of biological organization up from the individual gene or protein. Flux control in metabolic pathways, reflecting the importance of mutation to individual enzyme genes, may be evolutionarily variable due to the role of mutation-selection-drift balance. The evolutionary stability of rate limiting steps and the patterns of inter-molecular co-evolution were evaluated in a simulated pathway with a system out of equilibrium due to fluctuating selection, population size, or positive directional selection, to contrast with those under stabilizing selection. Depending upon the underlying population genetic regime, fluctuating population size was found to increase the evolutionary stability of rate limiting steps in some scenarios. This result was linked to patterns of local adaptation of the population. Further, during positive directional selection, as with more complex mutational scenarios, an increase in the observation of inter-molecular co-evolution was observed. Differences in patterns of evolution when systems are in and out of equilibrium, including during positive directional selection may lead to predictable differences in observed patterns for divergent evolutionary scenarios. In particular, this result might be harnessed to detect differences between compensatory processes and directional processes at the pathway level based upon evolutionary observations in individual proteins. Detecting functional shifts in pathways reflects an important milestone in predicting when changes in genotypes result in changes in phenotypes.

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics.

PubMed

Fernández, Néstor; Román, Jacinto; Delibes, Miguel

2016-04-13

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity--a major outcome of ecosystem functions--on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. © 2016 The Authors.

Demographic expansion of two Tamarix species along the Yellow River caused by geological events and climate change in the Pleistocene.

PubMed

Liang, Hong-Yan; Feng, Zhi-Pei; Pei, Bing; Li, Yong; Yang, Xi-Tian

2018-01-08

The geological events and climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene played important roles in shaping patterns of species distribution. However, few studies have evaluated the patterns of species distribution that were influenced by the Yellow River. The present work analyzed the demography of two endemic tree species that are widely distributed along the Yellow River, Tamarix austromongolica and Tamarix chinensis, to understand the role of the Yellow River and Pleistocene climate in shaping their distribution patterns. The most common chlorotype, chlorotype 1, was found in all populations, and its divergence time could be dated back to 0.19 million years ago (Ma). This dating coincides well with the formation of the modern Yellow River and the timing of Marine Isotope Stages 5e-6 (MIS 5e-6). Bayesian reconstructions along with models of paleodistribution revealed that these two species experienced a demographic expansion in population size during the Quaternary period. Approximate Bayesian computation analyses supported a scenario of expansion approximately from the upper to lower reaches of the Yellow River. Our results provide support for the roles of the Yellow River and the Pleistocene climate in driving demographic expansion of the populations of T. austromongolica and T. chinensis. These findings are useful for understanding the effects of geological events and past climatic fluctuations on species distribution patterns.

Fluctuating asymmetry and stress in a medieval Nubian population.

PubMed

Deleon, Valerie B

2007-04-01

Fluctuating asymmetry is commonly used as a bioindicator of developmental stress. This study addresses asymmetry under nutritional/systemic stress in the human craniofacial skeleton and its utility as an indicator of developmental instability. Crania from the diachronic Christian cemeteries at Kulubnarti (Sudanese Nubia) were chosen as a model for nutrition/systemic stress. Previous studies indicate that individuals from the Early Christian cemetery were subjected to greater developmental stress when compared with individuals from the Late Christian cemetery. Therefore, crania from the Early Christian cemetery should display a greater magnitude of fluctuating asymmetry than crania from the Late Christian cemetery. Thirty adult crania of comparable age and sex were selected from each population. Landmark coordinates were digitized in two separate trials and averaged to minimize error. Euclidean distance matrix analysis (EDMA) was used to measure and compare the magnitude of fluctuating asymmetry in each sample. Results indicate that crania from the Early Christian cemetery display greater amounts of fluctuating asymmetry than those from the Late Christian cemetery, as predicted. The degree of fluctuating asymmetry for each linear distance is highly correlated between the cemeteries, suggesting that all humans may share common patterns of fluctuating asymmetry in the skull. In contrast, there is little correlation between magnitude of fluctuating asymmetry and length of linear distance, between-subject variability, or measurement error. These results support the hypothesis that poor nutrition/systemic stress increases developmental instability in the human skull and that increased fluctuating asymmetry constitutes morphological evidence of this stress.

Ising-like patterns of spatial synchrony in population biology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noble, Andrew; Hastings, Alan; Machta, Jon

2014-03-01

Systems of coupled dynamical oscillators can undergo a phase transition between synchronous and asynchronous phases. In the case of coupled map lattices, the spontaneous symmetry breaking of a temporal-phase order parameter is known to exhibit Ising-like critical behavior. Here, we investigate a noisy coupled map motivated by the study of spatial synchrony in ecological populations far from the extinction threshold. Ising-like patterns of criticality, as well as spinodal decomposition and homogeneous nucleation, emerge from the nonlinear interactions of environmental fluctuations in habitat quality, local density-dependence in reproduction, and dispersal. In the mean-field limit, the correspondence to the Ising model is exact: the fixed points of our dynamical system are given by the equation of state for Weiss mean-field theory under an appropriate mapping of parameters. We have strong evidence that a quantitative correspondence persists, both near and far from the critical point, in the presence of fluctuations. Our results provide a formal connection between equilibrium statistical physics and population biology. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1344187.

Asynchronous Rate Chaos in Spiking Neuronal Circuits

PubMed Central

Harish, Omri; Hansel, David

2015-01-01

The brain exhibits temporally complex patterns of activity with features similar to those of chaotic systems. Theoretical studies over the last twenty years have described various computational advantages for such regimes in neuronal systems. Nevertheless, it still remains unclear whether chaos requires specific cellular properties or network architectures, or whether it is a generic property of neuronal circuits. We investigate the dynamics of networks of excitatory-inhibitory (EI) spiking neurons with random sparse connectivity operating in the regime of balance of excitation and inhibition. Combining Dynamical Mean-Field Theory with numerical simulations, we show that chaotic, asynchronous firing rate fluctuations emerge generically for sufficiently strong synapses. Two different mechanisms can lead to these chaotic fluctuations. One mechanism relies on slow I-I inhibition which gives rise to slow subthreshold voltage and rate fluctuations. The decorrelation time of these fluctuations is proportional to the time constant of the inhibition. The second mechanism relies on the recurrent E-I-E feedback loop. It requires slow excitation but the inhibition can be fast. In the corresponding dynamical regime all neurons exhibit rate fluctuations on the time scale of the excitation. Another feature of this regime is that the population-averaged firing rate is substantially smaller in the excitatory population than in the inhibitory population. This is not necessarily the case in the I-I mechanism. Finally, we discuss the neurophysiological and computational significance of our results. PMID:26230679

Variation in sensitivity of large benthic Foraminifera to the combined effects of ocean warming and local impacts.

PubMed

Prazeres, Martina; Roberts, T Edward; Pandolfi, John M

2017-03-23

Large benthic foraminifera (LBF) are crucial marine calcifiers in coral reefs, and sensitive to environmental changes. Yet, many species successfully colonise a wide range of habitats including highly fluctuating environments. We tested the combined effects of ocean warming, local impacts and different light levels on populations of the common LBF Amphistegina lobifera collected along a cross-shelf gradient of temperature and nutrients fluctuations. We analysed survivorship, bleaching frequency, chlorophyll a content and fecundity. Elevated temperature and nitrate significantly reduced survivorship and fecundity of A. lobifera across populations studied. This pattern was exacerbated when combined with below optimum light levels. Inshore populations showed a consistent resistance to increased temperature and nitrate levels, but all populations studied were significantly affected by light reduction. These findings demonstrated the capacity of some populations of LBF to acclimate to local conditions; nonetheless improvements in local water quality can ultimately ameliorate effects of climate change in local LBF populations.

Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species

PubMed Central

Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

2013-01-01

Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. PMID:23837841

Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species.

PubMed

Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

2013-08-01

Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How pattern formation in ring networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons depends on the input current regime.

PubMed

Kriener, Birgit; Helias, Moritz; Rotter, Stefan; Diesmann, Markus; Einevoll, Gaute T

2013-01-01

Pattern formation, i.e., the generation of an inhomogeneous spatial activity distribution in a dynamical system with translation invariant structure, is a well-studied phenomenon in neuronal network dynamics, specifically in neural field models. These are population models to describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of large groups of neurons in terms of macroscopic variables such as population firing rates. Though neural field models are often deduced from and equipped with biophysically meaningful properties, a direct mapping to simulations of individual spiking neuron populations is rarely considered. Neurons have a distinct identity defined by their action on their postsynaptic targets. In its simplest form they act either excitatorily or inhibitorily. When the distribution of neuron identities is assumed to be periodic, pattern formation can be observed, given the coupling strength is supracritical, i.e., larger than a critical weight. We find that this critical weight is strongly dependent on the characteristics of the neuronal input, i.e., depends on whether neurons are mean- or fluctuation driven, and different limits in linearizing the full non-linear system apply in order to assess stability. In particular, if neurons are mean-driven, the linearization has a very simple form and becomes independent of both the fixed point firing rate and the variance of the input current, while in the very strongly fluctuation-driven regime the fixed point rate, as well as the input mean and variance are important parameters in the determination of the critical weight. We demonstrate that interestingly even in "intermediate" regimes, when the system is technically fluctuation-driven, the simple linearization neglecting the variance of the input can yield the better prediction of the critical coupling strength. We moreover analyze the effects of structural randomness by rewiring individual synapses or redistributing weights, as well as coarse-graining on the formation of inhomogeneous activity patterns.

How pattern formation in ring networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons depends on the input current regime

PubMed Central

Kriener, Birgit; Helias, Moritz; Rotter, Stefan; Diesmann, Markus; Einevoll, Gaute T.

2014-01-01

Pattern formation, i.e., the generation of an inhomogeneous spatial activity distribution in a dynamical system with translation invariant structure, is a well-studied phenomenon in neuronal network dynamics, specifically in neural field models. These are population models to describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of large groups of neurons in terms of macroscopic variables such as population firing rates. Though neural field models are often deduced from and equipped with biophysically meaningful properties, a direct mapping to simulations of individual spiking neuron populations is rarely considered. Neurons have a distinct identity defined by their action on their postsynaptic targets. In its simplest form they act either excitatorily or inhibitorily. When the distribution of neuron identities is assumed to be periodic, pattern formation can be observed, given the coupling strength is supracritical, i.e., larger than a critical weight. We find that this critical weight is strongly dependent on the characteristics of the neuronal input, i.e., depends on whether neurons are mean- or fluctuation driven, and different limits in linearizing the full non-linear system apply in order to assess stability. In particular, if neurons are mean-driven, the linearization has a very simple form and becomes independent of both the fixed point firing rate and the variance of the input current, while in the very strongly fluctuation-driven regime the fixed point rate, as well as the input mean and variance are important parameters in the determination of the critical weight. We demonstrate that interestingly even in “intermediate” regimes, when the system is technically fluctuation-driven, the simple linearization neglecting the variance of the input can yield the better prediction of the critical coupling strength. We moreover analyze the effects of structural randomness by rewiring individual synapses or redistributing weights, as well as coarse-graining on the formation of inhomogeneous activity patterns. PMID:24501591

Seasonal variability of glycated hemoglobin in a diabetic population from southern Europe.

PubMed

Gomez-Huelgas, Ricardo; Santamaria-Fernandez, Sonia; Guijarro-Merino, Ricardo; Navajas-Luque, Federico; Tinahones, Francisco J; Roman-Teran, Carlos M San; Picon, M Jose; Bernal-Lopez, M Rosa

2013-01-01

To analyze the seasonal variations in A1c levels among a southern European diabetic population. We examined all monthly-grouped A1c determinations from diabetic patients during the period 2006-2011, in a region of southern Spain. There were 61,329 records available. The mean A1c value was 56mmol/mol (7.2%±1.7%) (95% CI, 55-56mmol/mol (7.2%-7.3%), with a range of 0.2%. The highest value was in February and the lowest in July (56mmol/mol (7.3%) and 54mmol/mol (7.1%), respectively) (P<0.01). However, spectral analysis and correlation coefficients did not reach significance, and the series presented no seasonal pattern. In our area, although the A1C levels have some monthly fluctuation they show no significant seasonal pattern. Thus, the seasonal fluctuation of HbA1c is not a limitation for decision making in clinical practice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Macromolecular Crowding Induces Spatial Correlations That Control Gene Expression Bursting Patterns.

PubMed

Norred, S Elizabeth; Caveney, Patrick M; Chauhan, Gaurav; Collier, Lauren K; Collier, C Patrick; Abel, Steven M; Simpson, Michael L

2018-05-18

Recent superresolution microscopy studies in E. coli demonstrate that the cytoplasm has highly variable local concentrations where macromolecular crowding plays a central role in establishing membrane-less compartmentalization. This spatial inhomogeneity significantly influences molecular transport and association processes central to gene expression. Yet, little is known about how macromolecular crowding influences gene expression bursting-the episodic process where mRNA and proteins are produced in bursts. Here, we simultaneously measured mRNA and protein reporters in cell-free systems, showing that macromolecular crowding decoupled the well-known relationship between fluctuations in the protein population (noise) and mRNA population statistics. Crowded environments led to a 10-fold increase in protein noise even though there were only modest changes in the mRNA population and fluctuations. Instead, cell-like macromolecular crowding created an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of mRNA ("spatial noise") that led to large variability in the protein production burst size. As a result, the mRNA spatial noise created large temporal fluctuations in the protein population. These results highlight the interplay between macromolecular crowding, spatial inhomogeneities, and the resulting dynamics of gene expression, and provide insights into using these organizational principles in both cell-based and cell-free synthetic biology.

Constancy and asynchrony of Osmoderma eremita populations in tree hollows.

PubMed

Ranius, Thomas

2001-01-01

A species rich beetle fauna is associated with old, hollow trees. Many of these species are regarded as endangered, but there is little understanding of the population structure and extinction risks of these species. In this study I show that one of the most endangered beetles, Osmoderma eremita, has a population structure which conforms to that of a metapopulation, with each tree possibly sustaining a local population. This was revealed by performing a mark-release-recapture experiment in 26 trees over a 5-year period. The spatial variability between trees was much greater than temporal variability between years. The population size was on average 11 adults tree -1 year -1 , but differed widely between trees (0-85 adults tree -1 year -1 ). The population size in each tree varied moderately between years [mean coefficient of variation (C.V.)=0.51], but more widely than from sampling errors alone (P=0.008, Monte Carlo simulation). The population size variability in all trees combined, however, was not larger than expected from sampling errors alone in a constant population (C.V.=0.15, P=0.335, Monte Carlo simulation). Thus, the fluctuations of local populations cancel each other out when they are added together. This pattern can arise only when the fluctuations occur asynchronously between trees. The asynchrony of the fluctuations justifies the assumption usually made in metapopulation modelling, that local populations within a metapopulation fluctuate independently of one another. The asynchrony might greatly increase persistence time at the metapopulation level (per stand), compared to the local population level (per tree). The total population size of O. eremita in the study area was estimated to be 3,900 individuals. Other localities sustaining O. eremita are smaller in area, and most of these must be enlarged to allow long-term metapopulation persistence and to satisfy genetic considerations of the O. eremita populations.

Patterns and Oscillations in Reaction-Diffusion Systems with Intrinsic Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giver, Michael; Goldstein, Daniel; Chakraborty, Bulbul

2013-03-01

Intrinsic or demographic noise has been shown to play an important role in the dynamics of a variety of systems including predator-prey populations, biochemical reactions within cells, and oscillatory chemical reaction systems, and is known to give rise to oscillations and pattern formation well outside the parameter range predicted by standard mean-field analysis. Initially motivated by an experimental model of cells and tissues where the cells are represented by chemical reagents isolated in emulsion droplets, we study the stochastic Brusselator, a simple activator-inhibitor chemical reaction model. Our work extends the results of recent studies on the zero and one dimensional systems with the ultimate goals of understanding the role of noise in spatially structured systems and engineering novel patterns and attractors induced by fluctuations. In the zero dimensional system, we observe a noise induced switching between small and large amplitude oscillations when a separation of time scales is present, while the spatially extended system displays a similar switching between a stationary Turing pattern and uniform oscillations.

Seasonal variability of free amino acids in two marine bivalves, Macoma balthica and Mytilus spp., in relation to environmental and physiological factors.

PubMed

Kube, S; Sokolowski, A; Jansen, J M; Schiedek, D

2007-08-01

The seasonal variability of the intracellular free amino acid (FAA) concentration was studied in 5 Macoma balthica populations and 7 Mytilus spp. populations along their European distribution. Because of the well known physiological role of FAA as organic osmolytes for salinity induced cell volume regulation in marine osmoconformers, FAA variations were compared in bivalve populations that were exposed to high vs. low intraannual salinity fluctuations. In general, seasonal FAA variations were more pronounced in M. balthica than in Mytilus spp. In both bivalve taxa from different locations in the Baltic Sea, highest FAA concentrations were found in autumn and winter and low FAA concentrations were measured in summer. Seasonal patterns were less pronounced in both taxa at locations with constant salinity conditions. In contrast to Baltic Sea populations, Atlantic and Mediterranean bivalves showed high FAA concentrations in summer and low values in winter, regardless of seasonal salinity fluctuations. Significant seasonal FAA variations at locations with constant salinity conditions showed that salinity appeared not to be the main factor in determining FAA concentrations. The seasonal patterns of the main FAA pool components, i.e. alanine, glycine and taurine, are discussed in the context of seasonal variations in environmental factors (salinity, temperature) and physiological state (glycogen content, reproductive stage).

Comparative phylogeny and historical perspectives on population genetics of the Pacific hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas), inferred from feeding populations in the Yaeyama Islands, Japan.

PubMed

Nishizawa, Hideaki; Okuyama, Junichi; Kobayashi, Masato; Abe, Osamu; Arai, Nobuaki

2010-01-01

Mitochondrial DNA sequence polymorphisms and patterns of genetic diversity represent the genealogy and relative impacts of historical, geographic, and demographic events on populations. In this study, historical patterns of population dynamics and differentiation in hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Pacific were estimated from feeding populations in the Yaeyama Islands, Japan. Phylogenetic relationships of the haplotypes indicated that hawksbill and green turtles in the Pacific probably underwent very similar patterns and processes of population dynamics over the last million years, with population subdivision during the early Pleistocene and population expansion after the last glacial maximum. These significant contemporary historical events were suggested to have been caused by climatic and sea-level fluctuations. On the other hand, comparing our results to long-term population dynamics in the Atlantic, population subdivisions during the early Pleistocene were specific to Pacific hawksbill and green turtles. Therefore, regional differences in historical population dynamics are suggested. Despite limited sampling locations, these results are the first step in estimating the historical trends in Pacific sea turtles by using phylogenetics and population genetics.

Fluctuating viability selection on morphology of cliff swallows is driven by climate

PubMed Central

Brown, Charles R.; Brown, Mary Bomberger; Roche, Erin A.

2014-01-01

The extent to which fluctuating selection can maintain evolutionary stasis in most populations remains an unresolved question in evolutionary biology. Climate has been hypothesized to drive reversals in the direction of selection among different time periods and may also be responsible for intense episodic selection caused by rare weather events. We measured viability selection associated with morphological traits in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) in western Nebraska, U.S.A., over a 14-year period following a rare climatic event. We used mark-recapture to estimate the annual apparent survival of over 26,000 individuals whose wing, tail, tarsus, and bill had been measured. The fitness functions associated with tarsus length and bill dimensions fluctuated depending on annual climate conditions on the birds’ breeding grounds. The oscillating yearly patterns may have slowed and occasionally reversed directional change in trait trajectories, although there was a trend over time for for all traits except tarsus to increase in size. The net positive directional selection on some traits, despite periodic climate-associated fluctuations, suggests that cliff swallow morphology in the population is likely to keep changing and supports recent work contending that selection in general does not fluctuate enough to be an effective driver of stasis. PMID:23510182

The temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for an optimum.

PubMed

Chevin, Luis-Miguel; Haller, Benjamin C

2014-12-01

Temporal variation in phenotypic selection is often attributed to environmental change causing movements of the adaptive surface relating traits to fitness, but this connection is rarely established empirically. Fluctuating phenotypic selection can be measured by the variance and autocorrelation of directional selection gradients through time. However, the dynamics of these gradients depend not only on environmental changes altering the fitness surface, but also on evolution of the phenotypic distribution. Therefore, it is unclear to what extent variability in selection gradients can inform us about the underlying drivers of their fluctuations. To investigate this question, we derive the temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for a phenotypic optimum that is either constant or fluctuates randomly in various ways in a finite population. Our analytical results, combined with population- and individual-based simulations, show that although some characteristic patterns can be distinguished, very different types of change in the optimum (including a constant optimum) can generate similar temporal distributions of selection gradients, making it difficult to infer the processes underlying apparent fluctuating selection. Analyzing changes in phenotype distributions together with changes in selection gradients should prove more useful for inferring the mechanisms underlying estimated fluctuating selection. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Aphid population fluctuations and patterns of species dominance in Puerto Rico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Technical Abstract: Papaya ringspot virus (PRSV) is a non-persistently transmitted virus affecting papaya and cucurbit production worldwide. Papaya is not known to be colonized by any species of aphid, but multiple species can transmit the virus. That means that transmission depends on aphid populat...

Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. Multiple-species extensions to general ‘food networks’ can be classified on the mean-field level, providing both fundamental understanding of ensuing cooperativity and profound insight into the rich spatio-temporal features and coarsening kinetics in the corresponding spatially extended systems. Novel space-time patterns emerge as a result of the formation of competing alliances; e.g. coarsening domains that each incorporate rock-paper-scissors competition games.

Declines in moose population density at Isle Royle National Park, MI, USA and accompanied changes in landscape patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Jager, N. R.; Pastor, J.

2009-01-01

Ungulate herbivores create patterns of forage availability, plant species composition, and soil fertility as they range across large landscapes and consume large quantities of plant material. Over time, herbivore populations fluctuate, producing great potential for spatio-temporal landscape dynamics. In this study, we extend the spatial and temporal extent of a long-term investigation of the relationship of landscape patterns to moose foraging behavior at Isle Royale National Park, MI. We examined how patterns of browse availability and consumption, plant basal area, and soil fertility changed during a recent decline in the moose population. We used geostatistics to examine changes in the nature of spatial patterns in two valleys over 18 years and across short-range and long-range distance scales. Landscape patterns of available and consumed browse changed from either repeated patches or randomly distributed patches in 1988-1992 to random point distributions by 2007 after a recent record high peak followed by a rapid decline in the moose population. Patterns of available and consumed browse became decoupled during the moose population low, which is in contrast to coupled patterns during the earlier high moose population. Distributions of plant basal area and soil nitrogen availability also switched from repeated patches to randomly distributed patches in one valley and to random point distributions in the other valley. Rapid declines in moose population density may release vegetation and soil fertility from browsing pressure and in turn create random landscape patterns. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Phenological patterns of Spodoptera Guenée, 1852 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is more affected by ENSO than seasonal factors and host plant availability in a Brazilian Savanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piovesan, Mônica; Specht, Alexandre; Carneiro, Eduardo; Paula-Moraes, Silvana Vieira; Casagrande, Mirna Martins

2018-03-01

The identification of factors responsible for the population dynamics is fundamental for pest management, since losses can reach 18% of annual production. Besides regular seasonal environmental factors and crop managements, additional supra-annual meteorological phenomena can also affect population dynamics, although its relevance has been rarely investigated. Among crop pests, Spodoptera stands out due to its worldwide distribution, high degree of polyphagy, thus causing damages in several crops in the world. Aiming to distinguish the relevance of different factors shaping population dynamics of Spodoptera in an ecosystem constituted of dry and rainy seasons, the current study used circular statistics to identify phenological patterns and test if its population fluctuation is driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect, seasonal meteorological parameters, and/or host plant availability. Samplings were done in an intercropping system, in the Brazilian Savanna, during the new moon cycles between July/2013 and June/2016. Species were recorded all year round, but demonstrated differently non-uniform distribution, being concentrated in different seasons of the year. Population fluctuations were mostly affected by the ENSO intensity, despite the contrasting seasonal meteorological variation or host plant availability in a 400-m radius. Studies involving the observation of supra-annual phenomena, although rare, reach similar conclusions in relation to Neotropical insect fauna. Therefore, it is paramount to have long-term sampling studies to obtain a more precise response of the pest populations towards the agroecosystem conditions.

Macromolecular Crowding Induces Spatial Correlations That Control Gene Expression Bursting Patterns

DOE PAGES

Norred, Sarah Elizabeth; Caveney, Patrick M.; Chauhan, Gaurav; ...

2018-04-24

Recent superresolution microscopy studies in E. coli demonstrate that the cytoplasm has highly variable local concentrations where macromolecular crowding plays a central role in establishing membrane-less compartmentalization. This spatial inhomogeneity significantly influences molecular transport and association processes central to gene expression. Yet, little is known about how macromolecular crowding influences gene expression bursting—the episodic process where mRNA and proteins are produced in bursts. Here, we simultaneously measured mRNA and protein reporters in cell-free systems, showing that macromolecular crowding decoupled the well-known relationship between fluctuations in the protein population (noise) and mRNA population statistics. Crowded environments led to a 10-fold increasemore » in protein noise even though there were only modest changes in the mRNA population and fluctuations. Instead, cell-like macromolecular crowding created an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of mRNA (“spatial noise”) that led to large variability in the protein production burst size. As a result, the mRNA spatial noise created large temporal fluctuations in the protein population. Furthermore, these results highlight the interplay between macromolecular crowding, spatial inhomogeneities, and the resulting dynamics of gene expression, and provide insights into using these organizational principles in both cell-based and cell-free synthetic biology.« less

Macromolecular Crowding Induces Spatial Correlations That Control Gene Expression Bursting Patterns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Norred, Sarah Elizabeth; Caveney, Patrick M.; Chauhan, Gaurav

Recent superresolution microscopy studies in E. coli demonstrate that the cytoplasm has highly variable local concentrations where macromolecular crowding plays a central role in establishing membrane-less compartmentalization. This spatial inhomogeneity significantly influences molecular transport and association processes central to gene expression. Yet, little is known about how macromolecular crowding influences gene expression bursting—the episodic process where mRNA and proteins are produced in bursts. Here, we simultaneously measured mRNA and protein reporters in cell-free systems, showing that macromolecular crowding decoupled the well-known relationship between fluctuations in the protein population (noise) and mRNA population statistics. Crowded environments led to a 10-fold increasemore » in protein noise even though there were only modest changes in the mRNA population and fluctuations. Instead, cell-like macromolecular crowding created an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of mRNA (“spatial noise”) that led to large variability in the protein production burst size. As a result, the mRNA spatial noise created large temporal fluctuations in the protein population. Furthermore, these results highlight the interplay between macromolecular crowding, spatial inhomogeneities, and the resulting dynamics of gene expression, and provide insights into using these organizational principles in both cell-based and cell-free synthetic biology.« less

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders P.

2017-01-01

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size. PMID:28253345

Dynamic Patterns of Modern Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brockmann, Dirk; Hufnagel, Lars; Geisel, Theo

2004-03-01

We investigate the effects of scale-free travelling of humans and their inhomogeneous geographic distribution on the dynamic patterns of spreading epidemics. Our approach combines the susceptible/infected/recovered paradigm for the infection dynamics with superdiffusive dispersion of individuals and their inhomogeneous spatial distribution. We show that scale-free motion of individuals and their variable spatial distribution leads to the absence of wavefronts in dynamic epidemic patterns which are typical for the limiting cases of ordinary diffusion and spatially homogeneous populations. Instead, patterns emerge with isolated hotspots on highly populated areas from which regional epidemic outbursts are triggered. Hotspot sizes are independent of the correlation length in the spatial distribution of individuals and occur on all scales. Our theory predicts that highly populated areas are reached by an epidemic in advance and must receive special attention in control measure strategies. Furthermore, our analysis predicts strong fluctuations in the time course of the total infection which cannot be accounted for by ordinary reaction-diffusion models for epidemics.

Adaptation to Temporally Fluctuating Environments by the Evolution of Maternal Effects.

PubMed

Dey, Snigdhadip; Proulx, Stephen R; Teotónio, Henrique

2016-02-01

All organisms live in temporally fluctuating environments. Theory predicts that the evolution of deterministic maternal effects (i.e., anticipatory maternal effects or transgenerational phenotypic plasticity) underlies adaptation to environments that fluctuate in a predictably alternating fashion over maternal-offspring generations. In contrast, randomizing maternal effects (i.e., diversifying and conservative bet-hedging), are expected to evolve in response to unpredictably fluctuating environments. Although maternal effects are common, evidence for their adaptive significance is equivocal since they can easily evolve as a correlated response to maternal selection and may or may not increase the future fitness of offspring. Using the hermaphroditic nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, we here show that the experimental evolution of maternal glycogen provisioning underlies adaptation to a fluctuating normoxia-anoxia hatching environment by increasing embryo survival under anoxia. In strictly alternating environments, we found that hermaphrodites evolved the ability to increase embryo glycogen provisioning when they experienced normoxia and to decrease embryo glycogen provisioning when they experienced anoxia. At odds with existing theory, however, populations facing irregularly fluctuating normoxia-anoxia hatching environments failed to evolve randomizing maternal effects. Instead, adaptation in these populations may have occurred through the evolution of fitness effects that percolate over multiple generations, as they maintained considerably high expected growth rates during experimental evolution despite evolving reduced fecundity and reduced embryo survival under one or two generations of anoxia. We develop theoretical models that explain why adaptation to a wide range of patterns of environmental fluctuations hinges on the existence of deterministic maternal effects, and that such deterministic maternal effects are more likely to contribute to adaptation than randomizing maternal effects.

Adaptation to Temporally Fluctuating Environments by the Evolution of Maternal Effects

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Proulx, Stephen R.; Teotónio, Henrique

2016-01-01

All organisms live in temporally fluctuating environments. Theory predicts that the evolution of deterministic maternal effects (i.e., anticipatory maternal effects or transgenerational phenotypic plasticity) underlies adaptation to environments that fluctuate in a predictably alternating fashion over maternal-offspring generations. In contrast, randomizing maternal effects (i.e., diversifying and conservative bet-hedging), are expected to evolve in response to unpredictably fluctuating environments. Although maternal effects are common, evidence for their adaptive significance is equivocal since they can easily evolve as a correlated response to maternal selection and may or may not increase the future fitness of offspring. Using the hermaphroditic nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, we here show that the experimental evolution of maternal glycogen provisioning underlies adaptation to a fluctuating normoxia–anoxia hatching environment by increasing embryo survival under anoxia. In strictly alternating environments, we found that hermaphrodites evolved the ability to increase embryo glycogen provisioning when they experienced normoxia and to decrease embryo glycogen provisioning when they experienced anoxia. At odds with existing theory, however, populations facing irregularly fluctuating normoxia–anoxia hatching environments failed to evolve randomizing maternal effects. Instead, adaptation in these populations may have occurred through the evolution of fitness effects that percolate over multiple generations, as they maintained considerably high expected growth rates during experimental evolution despite evolving reduced fecundity and reduced embryo survival under one or two generations of anoxia. We develop theoretical models that explain why adaptation to a wide range of patterns of environmental fluctuations hinges on the existence of deterministic maternal effects, and that such deterministic maternal effects are more likely to contribute to adaptation than randomizing maternal effects. PMID:26910440

Population rate dynamics and multineuron firing patterns in sensory cortex

PubMed Central

Okun, Michael; Yger, Pierre; Marguet, Stephan; Gerard-Mercier, Florian; Benucci, Andrea; Katzner, Steffen; Busse, Laura; Carandini, Matteo; Harris, Kenneth D.

2012-01-01

Cortical circuits encode sensory stimuli through the firing of neuronal ensembles, and also produce spontaneous population patterns in the absence of sensory drive. This population activity is often characterized experimentally by the distribution of multineuron “words” (binary firing vectors), and a match between spontaneous and evoked word distributions has been suggested to reflect learning of a probabilistic model of the sensory world. We analyzed multineuron word distributions in sensory cortex of anesthetized rats and cats, and found that they are dominated by fluctuations in population firing rate rather than precise interactions between individual units. Furthermore, cortical word distributions change when brain state shifts, and similar behavior is seen in simulated networks with fixed, random connectivity. Our results suggest that similarity or dissimilarity in multineuron word distributions could primarily reflect similarity or dissimilarity in population firing rate dynamics, and not necessarily the precise interactions between neurons that would indicate learning of sensory features. PMID:23197704

Contrasting demographic history and gene flow patterns of two mangrove species on either side of the Central American Isthmus.

PubMed

Cerón-Souza, Ivania; Gonzalez, Elena G; Schwarzbach, Andrea E; Salas-Leiva, Dayana E; Rivera-Ocasio, Elsie; Toro-Perea, Nelson; Bermingham, Eldredge; McMillan, W Owen

2015-08-01

Comparative phylogeography offers a unique opportunity to understand the interplay between past environmental events and life-history traits on diversification of unrelated but co-distributed species. Here, we examined the effects of the quaternary climate fluctuations and palaeomarine currents and present-day marine currents on the extant patterns of genetic diversity in the two most conspicuous mangrove species of the Neotropics. The black (Avicennia germinans, Avicenniaceae) and the red (Rhizophora mangle, Rhizophoraceae) mangroves have similar geographic ranges but are very distantly related and show striking differences on their life-history traits. We sampled 18 Atlantic and 26 Pacific locations for A. germinans (N = 292) and R. mangle (N = 422). We performed coalescence simulations using microsatellite diversity to test for evidence of population change associated with quaternary climate fluctuations. In addition, we examined whether patterns of genetic variation were consistent with the directions of major marine (historical and present day) currents in the region. Our demographic analysis was grounded within a phylogeographic framework provided by the sequence analysis of two chloroplasts and one flanking microsatellite region in a subsample of individuals. The two mangrove species shared similar biogeographic histories including: (1) strong genetic breaks between Atlantic and Pacific ocean basins associated with the final closure of the Central American Isthmus (CAI), (2) evidence for simultaneous population declines between the mid-Pleistocene and early Holocene, (3) asymmetric historical migration with higher gene flow from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans following the direction of the palaeomarine current, and (4) contemporary gene flow between West Africa and South America following the major Atlantic Ocean currents. Despite the remarkable differences in life-history traits of mangrove species, which should have had a strong influence on seed dispersal capability and, thus, population connectivity, we found that vicariant events, climate fluctuations and marine currents have shaped the distribution of genetic diversity in strikingly similar ways.

Contrasting demographic history and gene flow patterns of two mangrove species on either side of the Central American Isthmus

PubMed Central

Cerón-Souza, Ivania; Gonzalez, Elena G; Schwarzbach, Andrea E; Salas-Leiva, Dayana E; Rivera-Ocasio, Elsie; Toro-Perea, Nelson; Bermingham, Eldredge; McMillan, W Owen

2015-01-01

Comparative phylogeography offers a unique opportunity to understand the interplay between past environmental events and life-history traits on diversification of unrelated but co-distributed species. Here, we examined the effects of the quaternary climate fluctuations and palaeomarine currents and present-day marine currents on the extant patterns of genetic diversity in the two most conspicuous mangrove species of the Neotropics. The black (Avicennia germinans, Avicenniaceae) and the red (Rhizophora mangle, Rhizophoraceae) mangroves have similar geographic ranges but are very distantly related and show striking differences on their life-history traits. We sampled 18 Atlantic and 26 Pacific locations for A. germinans (N = 292) and R. mangle (N = 422). We performed coalescence simulations using microsatellite diversity to test for evidence of population change associated with quaternary climate fluctuations. In addition, we examined whether patterns of genetic variation were consistent with the directions of major marine (historical and present day) currents in the region. Our demographic analysis was grounded within a phylogeographic framework provided by the sequence analysis of two chloroplasts and one flanking microsatellite region in a subsample of individuals. The two mangrove species shared similar biogeographic histories including: (1) strong genetic breaks between Atlantic and Pacific ocean basins associated with the final closure of the Central American Isthmus (CAI), (2) evidence for simultaneous population declines between the mid-Pleistocene and early Holocene, (3) asymmetric historical migration with higher gene flow from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans following the direction of the palaeomarine current, and (4) contemporary gene flow between West Africa and South America following the major Atlantic Ocean currents. Despite the remarkable differences in life-history traits of mangrove species, which should have had a strong influence on seed dispersal capability and, thus, population connectivity, we found that vicariant events, climate fluctuations and marine currents have shaped the distribution of genetic diversity in strikingly similar ways. PMID:26380680

Theoretical Study of near Neutrality. II. Effect of Subdivided Population Structure with Local Extinction and Recolonization

PubMed Central

Ohta, T.

1992-01-01

There are several unsolved problems concerning the model of nearly neutral mutations. One is the interaction of subdivided population structure and weak selection that spatially fluctuates. The model of nearly neutral mutations whose selection coefficient spatially fluctuates has been studied by adopting the island model with periodic extinction-recolonization. Both the number of colonies and the migration rate play significant roles in determining mutants' behavior, and selection is ineffective when the extinction-recolonization is frequent with low migration rate. In summary, the number of mutant substitutions decreases and the polymorphism increases by increasing the total population size, and/or decreasing the extinction-recolonization rate. However, by increasing the total size of the population, the mutant substitution rate does not become as low when compared with that in panmictic populations, because of the extinction-recolonization, especially when the migration rate is limited. It is also found that the model satisfactorily explains the contrasting patterns of molecular polymorphisms observed in sibling species of Drosophila, including heterozygosity, proportion of polymorphism and fixation index. PMID:1582566

Temperature variation, bacterial diversity and fungal infection dynamics in the amphibian skin.

PubMed

Longo, Ana V; Zamudio, Kelly R

2017-09-01

Host-associated bacterial communities on the skin act as the first line of defence against invading pathogens. Yet, for most natural systems, we lack a clear understanding of how temperature variability affects structure and composition of skin bacterial communities and, in turn, promotes or limits the colonization of opportunistic pathogens. Here, we examine how natural temperature fluctuations might be related to changes in skin bacterial diversity over time in three amphibian populations infected by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Our focal host species (Eleutherodactylus coqui) is a direct-developing frog that has suffered declines at some populations in the last 20 years, while others have not experienced any changes. We quantified skin bacterial alpha- and beta-diversity at four sampling time points, a period encompassing two seasons and ample variation in natural infections and environmental conditions. Despite the different patterns of infection across populations, we detected an overall increase in bacterial diversity through time, characterized by the replacement of bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Increased frog body temperatures possibly allowed the colonization of bacteria as well as the recruitment of a subset of indicator OTUs, which could have promoted the observed changes in diversity patterns. Our results suggest that natural environmental fluctuations might be involved in creating opportunities for bacterial replacement, potentially attenuating pathogen transmission and thus contributing to host persistence in E. coqui populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

PubMed

Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

2017-10-03

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

Seasonal cycles, phylogenetic assembly, and functional diversity of orchid bee communities.

PubMed

Ramírez, Santiago R; Hernández, Carlos; Link, Andres; López-Uribe, Margarita M

2015-05-01

Neotropical rainforests sustain some of the most diverse terrestrial communities on Earth. Euglossine (or orchid) bees are a diverse lineage of insect pollinators distributed throughout the American tropics, where they provide pollination services to a staggering diversity of flowering plant taxa. Elucidating the seasonal patterns of phylogenetic assembly and functional trait diversity of bee communities can shed new light into the mechanisms that govern the assembly of bee pollinator communities and the potential effects of declining bee populations. Male euglossine bees collect, store, and accumulate odoriferous compounds (perfumes) to subsequently use during courtship display. Thus, synthetic chemical baits can be used to attract and monitor euglossine bee populations. We conducted monthly censuses of orchid bees in three sites in the Magdalena valley of Colombia - a region where Central and South American biotas converge - to investigate the structure, diversity, and assembly of euglossine bee communities through time in relation to seasonal climatic cycles. In particular, we tested the hypothesis that phylogenetic community structure and functional trait diversity changed in response to seasonal rainfall fluctuations. All communities exhibited strong to moderate phylogenetic clustering throughout the year, with few pronounced bursts of phylogenetic overdispersion that coincided with the transition from wet-to-dry seasons. Despite the heterogeneous distribution of functional traits (e.g., body size, body mass, and proboscis length) and the observed seasonal fluctuations in phylogenetic diversity, we found that functional trait diversity, evenness, and divergence remained constant during all seasons in all communities. However, similar to the pattern observed with phylogenetic diversity, functional trait richness fluctuated markedly with rainfall in all sites. These results emphasize the importance of considering seasonal fluctuations in community assembly and provide a glimpse to the potential effects that climatic alterations may have on both pollinator communities and the ecosystem services they provide.

Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer.

PubMed

Tyler, Nicholas J C; Forchhammer, Mads C; Øritsland, Nils Are

2008-06-01

Nonlinear and irregular population dynamics may arise as a result of phase dependence and coexistence of multiple attractors. Here we explore effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a highly fluctuating population of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) on Svalbard observed over a period of 29 years. Time series analyses revealed that density dependence and the effects of local climate (measured as the degree of ablation [melting] of snow during winter) on numbers were both highly nonlinear: direct negative density dependence was found when the population was growing (Rt > 0) and during phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) characterized by winters with generally high (1979-1995) and low (1996-2007) indices, respectively. A growth-phase-dependent model explained the dynamics of the population best and revealed the influence of density-independent processes on numbers that a linear autoregressive model missed altogether. In particular, the abundance of reindeer was enhanced by ablation during phases of growth (Rt > 0), an observation that contrasts with the view that periods of mild weather in winter are normally deleterious for reindeer owing to icing of the snowpack. Analyses of vital rates corroborated the nonlinearity described in the population time series and showed that both starvation mortality in winter and fecundity were nonlinearly related to fluctuations in density and the level of ablation. The erratic pattern of growth of the population of reindeer in Adventdalen seems, therefore, to result from a combination of the effects of nonlinear density dependence, strong density-dependent mortality, and variable density independence related to ablation in winter.

Intercohort density dependence drives brown trout habitat selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayllón, Daniel; Nicola, Graciela G.; Parra, Irene; Elvira, Benigno; Almodóvar, Ana

2013-01-01

Habitat selection can be viewed as an emergent property of the quality and availability of habitat but also of the number of individuals and the way they compete for its use. Consequently, habitat selection can change across years due to fluctuating resources or to changes in population numbers. However, habitat selection predictive models often do not account for ecological dynamics, especially density dependent processes. In stage-structured population, the strength of density dependent interactions between individuals of different age classes can exert a profound influence on population trajectories and evolutionary processes. In this study, we aimed to assess the effects of fluctuating densities of both older and younger competing life stages on the habitat selection patterns (described as univariate and multivariate resource selection functions) of young-of-the-year, juvenile and adult brown trout Salmo trutta. We observed all age classes were selective in habitat choice but changed their selection patterns across years consistently with variations in the densities of older but not of younger age classes. Trout of an age increased selectivity for positions highly selected by older individuals when their density decreased, but this pattern did not hold when the density of younger age classes varied. It suggests that younger individuals are dominated by older ones but can expand their range of selected habitats when density of competitors decreases, while older trout do not seem to consider the density of younger individuals when distributing themselves even though they can negatively affect their final performance. Since these results may entail critical implications for conservation and management practices based on habitat selection models, further research should involve a wider range of river typologies and/or longer time frames to fully understand the patterns of and the mechanisms underlying the operation of density dependence on brown trout habitat selection.

Universal characteristics of fractal fluctuations in prime number distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvam, A. M.

2014-11-01

The frequency of occurrence of prime numbers at unit number spacing intervals exhibits self-similar fractal fluctuations concomitant with inverse power law form for power spectrum generic to dynamical systems in nature such as fluid flows, stock market fluctuations and population dynamics. The physics of long-range correlations exhibited by fractals is not yet identified. A recently developed general systems theory visualizes the eddy continuum underlying fractals to result from the growth of large eddies as the integrated mean of enclosed small scale eddies, thereby generating a hierarchy of eddy circulations or an inter-connected network with associated long-range correlations. The model predictions are as follows: (1) The probability distribution and power spectrum of fractals follow the same inverse power law which is a function of the golden mean. The predicted inverse power law distribution is very close to the statistical normal distribution for fluctuations within two standard deviations from the mean of the distribution. (2) Fractals signify quantum-like chaos since variance spectrum represents probability density distribution, a characteristic of quantum systems such as electron or photon. (3) Fractal fluctuations of frequency distribution of prime numbers signify spontaneous organization of underlying continuum number field into the ordered pattern of the quasiperiodic Penrose tiling pattern. The model predictions are in agreement with the probability distributions and power spectra for different sets of frequency of occurrence of prime numbers at unit number interval for successive 1000 numbers. Prime numbers in the first 10 million numbers were used for the study.

Long-Term Coexistence of Rotifer Cryptic Species

PubMed Central

Serra, Manuel; Gómez, Africa

2011-01-01

Despite their high morphological similarity, cryptic species often coexist in aquatic habitats presenting a challenge in the framework of niche differentiation theory and coexistence mechanisms. Here we use a rotifer species complex inhabiting highly unpredictable and fluctuating salt lakes to gain insights into the mechanisms involved in stable coexistence in cryptic species. We combined molecular barcoding surveys of planktonic populations and paleogenetic analysis of diapausing eggs to reconstruct the current and historical coexistence dynamics of two highly morphologically similar rotifer species, B. plicatilis and B. manjavacas. In addition, we carried out laboratory experiments using clones isolated from eight lakes where both species coexist to explore their clonal growth responses to salinity, a challenging, highly variable and unpredictable condition in Mediterranean salt lakes. We show that both species have co-occurred in a stable way in one lake, with population fluctuations in which no species was permanently excluded. The seasonal occurrence patterns of the plankton in two lakes agree with laboratory experiments showing that both species differ in their optimal salinity. These results suggest that stable species coexistence is mediated by differential responses to salinity and its fluctuating regime. We discuss the role of fluctuating salinity and a persistent diapausing egg banks as a mechanism for species coexistence in accordance with the ‘storage effect’. PMID:21738691

Population Fluctuations and Synchrony of Grassland Butterflies in Relation to Species Traits

PubMed Central

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G.; Johansson, Victor; Ranius, Thomas

2013-01-01

Population fluctuations and synchrony influence population persistence; species with larger fluctuations and more synchronised population fluctuations face higher extinction risks. Here, we analyse the effect of diet specialisation, mobility, length of the flight period, and distance to the northern edge of the species’ distribution in relation to between-year population fluctuations and synchrony of butterfly species. All butterfly species associated with grasslands were surveyed over five successive years at 19 grassland sites in a forest-dominated landscape (50 km2) in southern Sweden. At both the local and regional level, we found larger population fluctuations in species with longer flight periods. Population fluctuations were more synchronous among localities in diet specialists. Species with a long flight period might move more to track nectar resources compared to species with shorter flight period, and if nectar sources vary widely between years and localities it may explain that population fluctuations increase with increasing flight length. Diet generalists can use different resources (in this case host plants) at different localities and this can explain the lower synchrony in population fluctuations among generalist species. Higher degree of synchrony is one possible explanation for the higher extinction risks that have been observed for more specialised species. Therefore, diet specialists are more often threatened and require more conservation efforts than generalists. PMID:24205169

Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

PubMed Central

Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

2012-01-01

Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies. PMID:22822425

Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

2012-06-01

Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies.

Dynamics of acorn production by five species of Southern Appalachian oaks

Treesearch

Cathryn H. Greenberg; Bernard R. Parresol

2002-01-01

The management implications of fluctuations in acorn crop size underscore the need to better understand their patterns, causal factors, and predictability (both within a year and long term). Acorn yield has a demonstrable influence on the population dynamics of many wildlife species, both game (Eiler et al. 1989, Wentworth et al. 1992) and nongame (Hannon et al. 1987,...

INTERDISCIPLINARY PHYSICS AND RELATED AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: Coexistence and Extinction Pattern of Asymmetric Cyclic Game Species in a Square Lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lin-Rong; Li, Yong-Ming; Yang, Guang-Can

2010-06-01

The co-evolutionary dynamics of a cyclic game system is investigated in a two-dimensional square lattice with the asymmetrical rates for three species. Different with the well-mixed system, coexistence and extinction emerge alternately in the system, where a “zero-one" behavior is robust for a small population size, whereas, the system is predominated by coexistence for a big population one. We study in detail the influence about the fluctuation to the change of the state, and find that the difference between the maximal amplitude about the fluctuation and the average intensity determines which state the system is ultimately. In addition, we introduce Potts energy to explain the reason of the “zero-one" behavior. It is shown that the average Potts energy per site is the distance to the “zero-one" behavior in the model.

Relation between heart beat fluctuations and cyclic alternating pattern during sleep in insomnia patients.

PubMed

de Leon-Lomeli, R; Murguia, J S; Chouvarda, I; Mendez, M O; Gonzalez-Galvan, E; Alba, A; Milioli, G; Grassi, A; Terzano, M G; Parrino, L

2014-01-01

Insomnia is a condition that affects the nervous and muscular system. Thirty percent of the population between 18 and 60 years suffers from insomnia. The effects of this disorder involve problems such as poor school or job performance and traffic accidents. In addition, patients with insomnia present changes in the cardiac function during sleep. Furthermore, the structure of electroencephalographic A-phases, which builds up the Cyclic Alternating Pattern during sleep, is related to the insomnia events. Therefore, the relationship between these brain activations (A-phases) and the autonomic nervous system would be of interest, revealing the interplay of central and autonomic activity during insomnia. With this goal, a study of the relationship between A-phases and heart rate fluctuations is presented. Polysomnography recording of five healthy subjects, five sleep misperception patients and five patients with psychophysiological insomnia were used in the study. Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) was used in order to evaluate the heart rate dynamics and this was correlated with the number of A-phases. The results suggest that pathological patients present changes in the dynamics of the heart rate. This is reflected in the modification of A-phases dynamics, which seems to modify of heart rate dynamics.

Broadband Electrophysiological Dynamics Contribute to Global Resting-State fMRI Signal.

PubMed

Wen, Haiguang; Liu, Zhongming

2016-06-01

Spontaneous activity observed with resting-state fMRI is used widely to uncover the brain's intrinsic functional networks in health and disease. Although many networks appear modular and specific, global and nonspecific fMRI fluctuations also exist and both pose a challenge and present an opportunity for characterizing and understanding brain networks. Here, we used a multimodal approach to investigate the neural correlates to the global fMRI signal in the resting state. Like fMRI, resting-state power fluctuations of broadband and arrhythmic, or scale-free, macaque electrocorticography and human magnetoencephalography activity were correlated globally. The power fluctuations of scale-free human electroencephalography (EEG) were coupled with the global component of simultaneously acquired resting-state fMRI, with the global hemodynamic change lagging the broadband spectral change of EEG by ∼5 s. The levels of global and nonspecific fluctuation and synchronization in scale-free population activity also varied across and depended on arousal states. Together, these results suggest that the neural origin of global resting-state fMRI activity is the broadband power fluctuation in scale-free population activity observable with macroscopic electrical or magnetic recordings. Moreover, the global fluctuation in neurophysiological and hemodynamic activity is likely modulated through diffuse neuromodulation pathways that govern arousal states and vigilance levels. This study provides new insights into the neural origin of resting-state fMRI. Results demonstrate that the broadband power fluctuation of scale-free electrophysiology is globally synchronized and directly coupled with the global component of spontaneous fMRI signals, in contrast to modularly synchronized fluctuations in oscillatory neural activity. These findings lead to a new hypothesis that scale-free and oscillatory neural processes account for global and modular patterns of functional connectivity observed with resting-state fMRI, respectively. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/366030-11$15.00/0.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krummel, J.R.; Markin, J.B.; O'Neill, R.V.

Regional analyses of the interaction between human populations and natural resources must integrate landscape scale environmental problems. An approach that considers human culture, environmental processes, and resource needs offers an appropriate methodology. With this methodology, we analyze problems of food availability in African cattle-keeping societies. The analysis interrelates cattle biomass, forage availability, milk and blood production, crop yields, gathering, food subsidies, population, and variable precipitation. While an excess of cattle leads to overgrazing, cattle also serve as valuable food storage mechanisms during low rainfall periods. Food subsidies support higher population levels but do not alter drought-induced population fluctuations. Variable precipitationmore » patterns require solutions that stabilize year-to-year food production and also address problems of overpopulation.« less

Predicting the response of populations to environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ives, A.R.

1995-04-01

When subject to long-term directional environmental perturbations, changes in population densities depend on the positive and negative feedbacks operating through interactions within and among species in a community. This paper develops techniques to predict the long-term responses of population densities to environmental changes using data on short-term population fluctuations driven by short-term environmental variability. In addition to giving quantitative predictions, the techniques also reveal how different qualitative patterns of species interactions either buffer or accentuate population responses to environmental trends. All of the predictions are based on regression coefficients extracted from time series data, and they can therefore be appliedmore » with a minimum of mathematical and statistical gymnastics. 48 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.« less

The demographic dynamics of small island societies.

PubMed

Cruz, M; D'ayala, P G; Marcus, E; Mcelroy, J L; Rossi, O

1987-01-01

Small islands and microstates have demonstrated a unique demographic pattern, including cycles of swift population increases or decreases well beyond natural birth and death rate balances. These demographic fluctuations have been produced largely by rises or declines in market opportunities. The process of taking advantage of favorable opportunities is always followed by a specialization in the given activity, without regard to environmental protection issues or a longterm strategy for economic development and resource diversification. The population growth phase is associated with increasing fragility of the economic base, whether because of the external dangers of overspecialization or induced internal dysfunctions such as disease and resource depletion. Eventually complete collapse results, causing chronic outmigration or even depopulation. Case histories of maritime basins in the Mediterranean, Caribbean, and Pacific show that the demographic structure of small islands has been particularly sensitive to changing economic opportunities, the vagaries of market forces, and cataclysmic natural events. Experience in these areas suggests that balanced economic development of small islands should be based on diversification of activities, thus ensuring a relatively stable pattern of growth, sound environmental management, and control of dangerous demographic fluctuations. Special attention should be given to the development of broad-based research and cooperation to integrate specific island opportunities within a regional network.

Sexual dimorphism in multiple aspects of 3D facial symmetry and asymmetry defined by spatially dense geometric morphometrics.

PubMed

Claes, Peter; Walters, Mark; Shriver, Mark D; Puts, David; Gibson, Greg; Clement, John; Baynam, Gareth; Verbeke, Geert; Vandermeulen, Dirk; Suetens, Paul

2012-08-01

Accurate measurement of facial sexual dimorphism is useful to understanding facial anatomy and specifically how faces influence, and have been influenced by, sexual selection. An important facial aspect is the display of bilateral symmetry, invoking the need to investigate aspects of symmetry and asymmetry separately when examining facial shape. Previous studies typically employed landmarks that provided only a sparse facial representation, where different landmark choices could lead to contrasting outcomes. Furthermore, sexual dimorphism is only tested as a difference of sample means, which is statistically the same as a difference in population location only. Within the framework of geometric morphometrics, we partition facial shape, represented in a spatially dense way, into patterns of symmetry and asymmetry, following a two-factor anova design. Subsequently, we investigate sexual dimorphism in symmetry and asymmetry patterns separately, and on multiple aspects, by examining (i) population location differences as well as differences in population variance-covariance; (ii) scale; and (iii) orientation. One important challenge in this approach is the proportionally high number of variables to observations necessitating the implementation of permutational and computationally feasible statistics. In a sample of gender-matched young adults (18-25 years) with self-reported European ancestry, we found greater variation in male faces than in women for all measurements. Statistically significant sexual dimorphism was found for the aspect of location in both symmetry and asymmetry (directional asymmetry), for the aspect of scale only in asymmetry (magnitude of fluctuating asymmetry) and, in contrast, for the aspect of orientation only in symmetry. Interesting interplays with hypotheses in evolutionary and developmental biology were observed, such as the selective nature of the force underpinning sexual dimorphism and the genetic independence of the structural patterns of fluctuating asymmetry. Additionally, insights into growth patterns of the soft tissue envelope of the face and underlying skull structure can also be obtained from the results. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Anatomy © 2012 Anatomical Society.

Sexual dimorphism in multiple aspects of 3D facial symmetry and asymmetry defined by spatially dense geometric morphometrics

PubMed Central

Claes, Peter; Walters, Mark; Shriver, Mark D; Puts, David; Gibson, Greg; Clement, John; Baynam, Gareth; Verbeke, Geert; Vandermeulen, Dirk; Suetens, Paul

2012-01-01

Accurate measurement of facial sexual dimorphism is useful to understanding facial anatomy and specifically how faces influence, and have been influenced by, sexual selection. An important facial aspect is the display of bilateral symmetry, invoking the need to investigate aspects of symmetry and asymmetry separately when examining facial shape. Previous studies typically employed landmarks that provided only a sparse facial representation, where different landmark choices could lead to contrasting outcomes. Furthermore, sexual dimorphism is only tested as a difference of sample means, which is statistically the same as a difference in population location only. Within the framework of geometric morphometrics, we partition facial shape, represented in a spatially dense way, into patterns of symmetry and asymmetry, following a two-factor anova design. Subsequently, we investigate sexual dimorphism in symmetry and asymmetry patterns separately, and on multiple aspects, by examining (i) population location differences as well as differences in population variance-covariance; (ii) scale; and (iii) orientation. One important challenge in this approach is the proportionally high number of variables to observations necessitating the implementation of permutational and computationally feasible statistics. In a sample of gender-matched young adults (18–25 years) with self-reported European ancestry, we found greater variation in male faces than in women for all measurements. Statistically significant sexual dimorphism was found for the aspect of location in both symmetry and asymmetry (directional asymmetry), for the aspect of scale only in asymmetry (magnitude of fluctuating asymmetry) and, in contrast, for the aspect of orientation only in symmetry. Interesting interplays with hypotheses in evolutionary and developmental biology were observed, such as the selective nature of the force underpinning sexual dimorphism and the genetic independence of the structural patterns of fluctuating asymmetry. Additionally, insights into growth patterns of the soft tissue envelope of the face and underlying skull structure can also be obtained from the results. PMID:22702244

Increased extinction potential of insular fish populations with reduced life history variation and low genetic diversity.

PubMed

Hellmair, Michael; Kinziger, Andrew P

2014-01-01

Theoretical work has shown that reduced phenotypic heterogeneity leads to population instability and can increase extinction potential, yet few examples exist of natural populations that illustrate how varying levels expressed diversity may influence population persistence, particularly during periods of stochastic environmental fluctuation. In this study, we assess levels of expressed variation and genetic diversity among demographically independent populations of tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi), show that reductions in both factors typically coincide, and describe how low levels of diversity contribute to the extinction risk of these isolated populations. We illustrate that, for this annual species, continuous reproduction is a safeguard against reproductive failure by any one population segment, as natural, stochastically driven salinity increases frequently result in high mortality among juvenile individuals. Several study populations deviated from the natural pattern of year-round reproduction typical for the species, rendering those with severely truncated reproductive periods vulnerable to extinction in the event of environmental fluctuation. In contrast, demographically diverse populations are more likely to persist through such periods through the continuous presence of adults with broader physiological tolerance to abrupt salinity changes. Notably, we found a significant correlation between genetic diversity and demographic variation in the study populations, which could be the result of population stressors that restrict both of these diversity measures simultaneously, or suggestive of a causative relationship between these population characteristics. These findings demonstrate the importance of biocomplexity at the population level, and assert that the maintenance of diversity contributes to population resilience and conservation of this endangered species.

Dental and phylogeographic patterns of variation in gorillas.

PubMed

Pilbrow, Varsha

2010-07-01

Gorilla patterns of variation have great relevance for studies of human evolution. In this study, molar morphometrics were used to evaluate patterns of geographic variation in gorillas. Dental specimens of 323 adult individuals, drawn from the current distribution of gorillas in equatorial Africa were divided into 14 populations. Discriminant analyses and Mahalanobis distances were used to study population structure. Results reveal that: 1) the West and East African gorillas form distinct clusters, 2) the Cross River gorillas are well separated from the rest of the western populations, 3) gorillas from the Virunga mountains and the Bwindi Forest can be differentiated from the lowland gorillas of Utu and Mwenga-Fizi, 4) the Tshiaberimu gorillas are distinct from other eastern gorillas, and the Kahuzi-Biega gorillas are affiliated with them. These findings provide support for a species distinction between Gorilla gorilla and Gorilla beringei, with subspecies G. g. diehli, G. g. gorilla, G. b. graueri, G. b. beringei, and possibly, G. b. rex-pygmaeorum. Clear correspondence between dental and other patterns of taxonomic diversity demonstrates that dental data reveal underlying genetic patterns of differentiation. Dental distances increased predictably with altitude but not with geographic distances, indicating that altitudinal segregation explains gorilla patterns of population divergence better than isolation-by-distance. The phylogeographic pattern of gorilla dental metric variation supports the idea that Plio-Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and local mountain building activity in Africa affected gorilla phylogeography. I propose that West Africa comprised the historic center of gorilla distribution and experienced drift-gene flow equilibrium, whereas Nigeria and East Africa were at the periphery, where climatic instability and altitudinal variation promoted drift and genetic differentiation. This understanding of gorilla population structure has implications for gorilla conservation, and for understanding the distribution of sympatric chimpanzees and Plio-Pleistocene hominins.

Fluctuations in Blood Marginal Zone B-Cell Frequencies May Reflect Migratory Patterns Associated with HIV-1 Disease Progression Status

PubMed Central

Poudrier, Johanne; Roger, Michel

2016-01-01

We have previously shown that overexpression of BLyS/BAFF was associated with increased relative frequencies of innate “precursor” marginal zone (MZ)-like B-cells in the blood of HIV-1-infected rapid and classic progressors. However, along with relatively normal BLyS/BAFF expression levels, these cells remain unaltered in elite-controllers (EC), rather, percentages of more mature MZ-like B-cells are decreased in the blood of these individuals. Fluctuations in frequencies of blood MZ-like B-cell populations may reflect migratory patterns associated with disease progression status, suggesting an important role for these cells in HIV-1 pathogenesis. We have therefore longitudinally measured plasma levels of B-tropic chemokines by ELISA-based technology as well as their ligands by flow-cytometry on blood B-cell populations of HIV-1-infected individuals with different rates of disease progression and uninfected controls. Migration potential of B-cell populations from these individuals were determined by chemotaxis assays. We found important modulations of CXCL13-CXCR5, CXCL12-CXCR4/CXCR7, CCL20-CCR6 and CCL25-CCR9 chemokine-axes and increased cell migration patterns in HIV progressors. Interestingly, frequencies of CCR6 expressing cells were significantly elevated within the precursor MZ-like population, consistent with increased migration in response to CCL20. Although we found little modulation of chemokine-axes in EC, cell migration was greater than that observed for uninfected controls, especially for MZ-like B-cells. Overall the immune response against HIV-1 may involve recruitment of MZ-like B-cells to peripheral sites. Moreover, our findings suggest that “regulated” attraction of these cells in a preserved BLyS/BAFF non-inflammatory environment, such as encountered in EC could be beneficial to the battle and even control of HIV. PMID:27203285

Effects of resource quality on the population dynamics of the Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella and its granulovirus.

PubMed

McVean, Ross I; Sait, Steve M; Thompson, David J; Begon, Mike

2002-03-01

Although the Plodia interpunctella-granulovirus system is one of the most studied models for insect-pathogen interactions, there are relatively few precise data on the dynamics of the virus in coexisting populations of these two organisms. Previous work has suggested that resource quality, in terms of the diet supplied to P. interpunctella, has a strong effect on the population dynamics of host and pathogen. Here we investigate the impact of resource-dependent host patterns of abundance on pathogen dynamics and prevalence. In the laboratory, three populations of P. interpunctella feeding on a good quality food and infected with a granulovirus were compared with three populations also infected with a granulovirus but feeding on poor quality food. Populations feeding on good quality food produced larger adult moths, and had greater numbers of adult moths, healthy larvae, and virus-infected larvae. A higher proportion of larvae in these good quality populations were infected with virus, and adult moths exhibited cyclic fluctuations in abundance, unlike those on poor quality food. This cyclic behaviour was shown to be associated with cycles in the age structure of the larval population. Previous theoretical work suggests that these cycles may result from asymmetric competition between young and old larvae. Cyclic fluctuations in the proportion of infected larvae, that occurred on good, but not on poor quality food, were also shown to be related to cycles in the age structure of the larval population.

Patterns of selection and allele diversity of class I and class II major histocompatibility loci across the species range of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka).

PubMed

McClelland, Erin K; Ming, Tobi J; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Beacham, Terry D; Withler, Ruth E; Miller, Kristina M

2013-09-01

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC), an important component of the vertebrate immune system, provides an important suite of genes to examine the role of genetic diversity at non-neutral loci for population persistence. We contrasted patterns of diversity at the two classical MHC loci in sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), MHC class I (UBA) and MHC class II (DAB), and neutral microsatellite loci across 70 populations spanning the species range from Washington State to Japan. There was no correlation in allelic richness or heterozygosity between MHC loci or between MHC loci and microsatellites. The two unlinked MHC loci may be responding to different selective pressures; the distribution of FST values for the two loci was uncorrelated, and evidence for both balancing and directional selection on alleles and lineages of DAB and UBA was observed in populations throughout the species range but rarely on both loci within a population. These results suggest that fluctuating selection has resulted in the divergence of MHC loci in contemporary populations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Parallel evolution of facial stripe patterns in the Neolamprologus brichardi/pulcher species complex endemic to Lake Tanganyika.

PubMed

Duftner, Nina; Sefc, Kristina M; Koblmüller, Stephan; Salzburger, Walter; Taborsky, Michael; Sturmbauer, Christian

2007-11-01

Colour pattern diversity can be due to random processes or to natural or sexual selection. Consequently, similarities in colour patterns are not always correlated with common ancestry, but may result from convergent evolution under shared selection pressures or drift. Neolamprologus brichardi and Neolamprologus pulcher have been described as two distinct species based on differences in the arrangement of two dark bars on the operculum. Our study uses DNA sequences of the mitochondrial control region to show that relatedness of haplotypes disagrees with species assignment based on head colour pattern. This suggests repeated parallel evolution of particular stripe patterns. The complete lack of shared haplotypes between populations of the same or different phenotypes reflects strong philopatric behaviour, possibly induced by the cooperative breeding mode in which offspring remain in their natal territory and serve as helpers until they disperse to nearby territories or take over a breeding position. Concordant phylogeographic patterns between N. brichardi/N. pulcher populations and other rock-dwelling cichlids suggest that the same colonization routes have been taken by sympatric species and that these routes were affected by lake level fluctuations in the past.

Spin-wave thermal population as temperature probe in magnetic tunnel junctions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Goff, A., E-mail: adrien.le-goff@u-psud.fr; Devolder, T.; Nikitin, V.

We study whether a direct measurement of the absolute temperature of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) can be performed using the high frequency electrical noise that it delivers under a finite voltage bias. Our method includes quasi-static hysteresis loop measurements of the MTJ, together with the field-dependence of its spin wave noise spectra. We rely on an analytical modeling of the spectra by assuming independent fluctuations of the different sub-systems of the tunnel junction that are described as macrospin fluctuators. We illustrate our method on perpendicularly magnetized MgO-based MTJs patterned in 50 × 100 nm{sup 2} nanopillars. We apply hard axismore » (in-plane) fields to let the magnetic thermal fluctuations yield finite conductance fluctuations of the MTJ. Instead of the free layer fluctuations that are observed to be affected by both spin-torque and temperature, we use the magnetization fluctuations of the sole reference layers. Their much stronger anisotropy and their much heavier damping render them essentially immune to spin-torque. We illustrate our method by determining current-induced heating of the perpendicularly magnetized tunnel junction at voltages similar to those used in spin-torque memory applications. The absolute temperature can be deduced with a precision of ±60 K, and we can exclude any substantial heating at the spin-torque switching voltage.« less

Abundance fluctuations among benthic invertebrates in two pacific estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, Frederic H.

1985-01-01

Long-term studies were used to examine (1) contrasting time scales and mechanisms of structural variations within two benthic communities and (2) the usefulness of long data sets for evaluating human impact. A 10-year study of a San Francisco Bay mudflat, the details of which are reported elsewhere, has revealed large short-term (on the order of months) variations in species abundances within a community composed predominantly of opportunistic species. The study site, located in a highly urbanized estuary, is subject to the influence of a nearby sewage-treatment facility. However, rapid changes in population size of the common species, in part due to periodic natural habitat disturbance, impedes the detection of anthropogenic influences on community composition. Only a very long-term data set may provide evidence of progressive change. Data collected for a 20-year period on the benthic community at 200 m depth in the main basin of Puget Sound, an environment subject to little apparent habitat disturbance show that numerical abundance of the common species can also change markedly. Here, however, numerical dominance shifts from one species to another at irregular, multiyear intervals. Recent increases in two heretofore rare species, and a significant increase in total numbers of individuals suggest that long-term changes may be occurring in this community. These two long-term data sets demonstrate the importance of measuring both the amplitude and the periodicity of fluctuations in population size of aquatic species as well as long-term fluctuations and patterns in environmental factors before attempting to demonstrate the effect of anthropogenic influences on aquatic communities. The results of these studies also demonstrate the usefulness of long-term data sets for revealing the potential importance of interactions among species in determining abundance patterns in the soft-bottom benthos.

Simultaneous effects of food limitation and inducible resistance on herbivore population dynamics.

PubMed

Abbott, Karen C; Morris, William F; Gross, Kevin

2008-02-01

Many herbivore populations fluctuate temporally, but the causes of those fluctuations remain unclear. Plant inducible resistance can theoretically cause herbivore population fluctuations, because herbivory may induce plant changes that reduce the survival or reproduction of later-feeding herbivores. Herbivory can also simply reduce the quantity of food available for later feeders and this, too, can cause population fluctuations. Inducible resistance and food limitation often occur simultaneously, yet whether they jointly facilitate or suppress herbivore fluctuations remains largely unexplored. We present models that suggest that food limitation and inducible resistance may have synergistic effects on herbivore population dynamics. The population-level response of the food plant to herbivory and the details of how inducible resistance affects herbivore performance both influence the resulting herbivore dynamics. Our results identify some biological properties of plant-herbivore systems that might determine whether or not cycles occur, and suggest that future empirical and theoretical population dynamics studies should account for the effects of both food limitation and inducible resistance.

Selection in a fluctuating environment and the evolution of sexual dimorphism in the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus.

PubMed

Hallsson, L R; Björklund, M

2012-08-01

Temperature changes in the environment, which realistically include environmental fluctuations, can create both plastic and evolutionary responses of traits. Sexes might differ in either or both of these responses for homologous traits, which in turn has consequences for sexual dimorphism and its evolution. Here, we investigate both immediate changes in and the evolution of sexual dimorphism in response to a changing environment (with and without fluctuations) using the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus. We investigate sex differences in plasticity and also the genetic architecture of body mass and developmental time dimorphism to test two existing hypotheses on sex differences in plasticity (adaptive canalization hypothesis and condition dependence hypothesis). We found a decreased sexual size dimorphism in higher temperature and that females responded more plastically than males, supporting the condition dependence hypothesis. However, selection in a fluctuating environment altered sex-specific patterns of genetic and environmental variation, indicating support for the adaptive canalization hypothesis. Genetic correlations between sexes (r(MF) ) were affected by fluctuating selection, suggesting facilitated independent evolution of the sexes. Thus, the selective past of a population is highly important for the understanding of the evolutionary dynamics of sexual dimorphism. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2012 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2016-10-01

In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes.

Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes. PMID:27703191

Fluctuations of the transcription factor ATML1 generate the pattern of giant cells in the Arabidopsis sepal

PubMed Central

Meyer, Heather M; Teles, José; Formosa-Jordan, Pau; Refahi, Yassin; San-Bento, Rita; Ingram, Gwyneth; Jönsson, Henrik; Locke, James C W; Roeder, Adrienne H K

2017-01-01

Multicellular development produces patterns of specialized cell types. Yet, it is often unclear how individual cells within a field of identical cells initiate the patterning process. Using live imaging, quantitative image analyses and modeling, we show that during Arabidopsis thaliana sepal development, fluctuations in the concentration of the transcription factor ATML1 pattern a field of identical epidermal cells to differentiate into giant cells interspersed between smaller cells. We find that ATML1 is expressed in all epidermal cells. However, its level fluctuates in each of these cells. If ATML1 levels surpass a threshold during the G2 phase of the cell cycle, the cell will likely enter a state of endoreduplication and become giant. Otherwise, the cell divides. Our results demonstrate a fluctuation-driven patterning mechanism for how cell fate decisions can be initiated through a random yet tightly regulated process. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.19131.001 PMID:28145865

The Extent of Genome Flux and Its Role in the Differentiation of Bacterial Lineages

PubMed Central

Nowell, Reuben W.; Green, Sarah; Laue, Bridget E.; Sharp, Paul M.

2014-01-01

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and gene loss are key processes in bacterial evolution. However, the role of gene gain and loss in the emergence and maintenance of ecologically differentiated bacterial populations remains an open question. Here, we use whole-genome sequence data to quantify gene gain and loss for 27 lineages of the plant-associated bacterium Pseudomonas syringae. We apply an extensive error-control procedure that accounts for errors in draft genome data and greatly improves the accuracy of patterns of gene occurrence among these genomes. We demonstrate a history of extensive genome fluctuation for this species and show that individual lineages could have acquired thousands of genes in the same period in which a 1% amino acid divergence accrues in the core genome. Elucidating the dynamics of genome fluctuation reveals the rapid turnover of gained genes, such that the majority of recently gained genes are quickly lost. Despite high observed rates of fluctuation, a phylogeny inferred from patterns of gene occurrence is similar to a phylogeny based on amino acid replacements within the core genome. Furthermore, the core genome phylogeny suggests that P. syringae should be considered a number of distinct species, with levels of divergence at least equivalent to those between recognized bacterial species. Gained genes are transferred from a variety of sources, reflecting the depth and diversity of the potential gene pool available via HGT. Overall, our results provide further insights into the evolutionary dynamics of genome fluctuation and implicate HGT as a major factor contributing to the diversification of P. syringae lineages. PMID:24923323

Controls on Thermal Discharge in Yellowstone NAtional Park, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohrmann, Jacob Steven

2007-10-01

Significant fluctuations in discharge occur in hot springs in Yellowstone National Park on a seasonal to decadal scale (Ingebritsen et al., 2001) and an hourly scale (Vitale, 2002). The purpose of this study was to determine the interval of the fluctuations in discharge and to explain what causes those discharge patterns in three thermally influenced streams in Yellowstone National Park. By monitoring flow in these streams, whose primary source of input is thermal discharge, we were able to find several significant patterns of discharge fluctuations. Patterns were found by using two techniques of spectral analysis. The spectral analyses completed involved using the program "R" as well as Microsoft Excel, both of which use Fourier transforms. The Fourier transform is a linear operator that identifies frequencies in the original function. Stream flow data were collected using a FloDar open channel flow monitor. The flow meter collected data at15-minute intervals at White Creek and Rabbit Creek for a period of approximately two weeks each during the Fall. Flow data were also used from 15-minute data interval from a USGS gaging station at Tantalus Creek. Patterns of discharge fluctuation were found in each stream. By comparing spectral analysis results of flow data with spectral analysis of published tide data and barometric pressure data, connections were drawn between fluctuations in tidal and barometric-pressure patterns and flow patterns. Also, visual comparisons used to identify potential correspondence with earthquakes and precipitation events. At Tantalus Creek, patterns were affected only by barometric pressure changes. At White Creek, one pattern was attributed to barometric pressure fluctuations, and another pattern was found that could be associated with earth-tide forces. At Rabbit Creek, these patterns were absent. A pattern at 8.55 hours, which could not be attributed to barometric pressure or earth tide forces, was found at Rabbit and White Creeks. The 8.55 hour pattern in discharge found at both Rabbit and White Creeks may suggest a physical link between the sites, which are close (2.5 km). The time pattern could be a result of a shared hydrothermal aquifer, convectively heating and discharging at both streams. However, the common time pattern could also be the result of independent factors, which coincidentally caused a similar time pattern.

Clinical Applications of Resting State Functional Connectivity

PubMed Central

Fox, Michael D.; Greicius, Michael

2010-01-01

During resting conditions the brain remains functionally and metabolically active. One manifestation of this activity that has become an important research tool is spontaneous fluctuations in the blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The identification of correlation patterns in these spontaneous fluctuations has been termed resting state functional connectivity (fcMRI) and has the potential to greatly increase the translation of fMRI into clinical care. In this article we review the advantages of the resting state signal for clinical applications including detailed discussion of signal to noise considerations. We include guidelines for performing resting state research on clinical populations, outline the different areas for clinical application, and identify important barriers to be addressed to facilitate the translation of resting state fcMRI into the clinical realm. PMID:20592951

Fate of a mutation in a fluctuating environment

PubMed Central

Cvijović, Ivana; Good, Benjamin H.; Jerison, Elizabeth R.; Desai, Michael M.

2015-01-01

Natural environments are never truly constant, but the evolutionary implications of temporally varying selection pressures remain poorly understood. Here we investigate how the fate of a new mutation in a fluctuating environment depends on the dynamics of environmental variation and on the selective pressures in each condition. We find that even when a mutation experiences many environmental epochs before fixing or going extinct, its fate is not necessarily determined by its time-averaged selective effect. Instead, environmental variability reduces the efficiency of selection across a broad parameter regime, rendering selection unable to distinguish between mutations that are substantially beneficial and substantially deleterious on average. Temporal fluctuations can also dramatically increase fixation probabilities, often making the details of these fluctuations more important than the average selection pressures acting on each new mutation. For example, mutations that result in a trade-off between conditions but are strongly deleterious on average can nevertheless be more likely to fix than mutations that are always neutral or beneficial. These effects can have important implications for patterns of molecular evolution in variable environments, and they suggest that it may often be difficult for populations to maintain specialist traits, even when their loss leads to a decline in time-averaged fitness. PMID:26305937

Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

PubMed

Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

2013-01-01

The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let the characteristics of known natural environmental covariates (e.g., colour and distribution shape) guide us in our choice of how to best model the impact of coloured environmental variation on population dynamics.

Dynamic denominators: the impact of seasonally varying population numbers on disease incidence estimates.

PubMed

Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth; Alegana, Victor A; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Linard, Catherine; Lourenço, Christoper; Ruktanonchai, Nick W; Graupe, Bonita; Bird, Tomas J; Pezzulo, Carla; Wesolowski, Amy; Tatem, Andrew J

2016-01-01

Reliable health metrics are crucial for accurately assessing disease burden and planning interventions. Many health indicators are measured through passive surveillance systems and are reliant on accurate estimates of denominators to transform case counts into incidence measures. These denominator estimates generally come from national censuses and use large area growth rates to estimate annual changes. Typically, they do not account for any seasonal fluctuations and thus assume a static denominator population. Many recent studies have highlighted the dynamic nature of human populations through quantitative analyses of mobile phone call data records and a range of other sources, emphasizing seasonal changes. In this study, we use mobile phone data to capture patterns of short-term human population movement and to map dynamism in population densities. We show how mobile phone data can be used to measure seasonal changes in health district population numbers, which are used as denominators for calculating district-level disease incidence. Using the example of malaria case reporting in Namibia we use 3.5 years of phone data to investigate the spatial and temporal effects of fluctuations in denominators caused by seasonal mobility on malaria incidence estimates. We show that even in a sparsely populated country with large distances between population centers, such as Namibia, populations are highly dynamic throughout the year. We highlight how seasonal mobility affects malaria incidence estimates, leading to differences of up to 30 % compared to estimates created using static population maps. These differences exhibit clear spatial patterns, with likely overestimation of incidence in the high-prevalence zones in the north of Namibia and underestimation in lower-risk areas when compared to using static populations. The results here highlight how health metrics that rely on static estimates of denominators from censuses may differ substantially once mobility and seasonal variations are taken into account. With respect to the setting of malaria in Namibia, the results indicate that Namibia may actually be closer to malaria elimination than previously thought. More broadly, the results highlight how dynamic populations are. In addition to affecting incidence estimates, these changes in population density will also have an impact on allocation of medical resources. Awareness of seasonal movements has the potential to improve the impact of interventions, such as vaccination campaigns or distributions of commodities like bed nets.

Thermal fluctuations of ferroelectric nanodomains in a ferroelectric-dielectric PbTiO 3 / SrTiO 3 superlattice

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Qingteng; Dufresne, Eric M.; Chen, Pice; ...

2017-02-27

Ferroelectric-dielectric superlattices consisting of alternating layers of ferroelectric PbTiO 3 and dielectric SrTiO 3 exhibit a disordered striped nanodomain pattern, with characteristic length scales of 6 nm for the domain periodicity and 30 nm for the in-plane coherence of the domain pattern. Spatial disorder in the domain pattern gives rise to coherent hard x-ray scattering patterns exhibiting intensity speckles. We show here using variable-temperature Bragg-geometry x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy that x-ray scattering patterns from the disordered domains exhibit a continuous temporal decorrelation due to spontaneous domain fluctuations. The temporal decorrelation can be described using a compressed exponential function, consistent withmore » what has been observed in other systems with arrested dynamics. The fluctuation speeds up at higher temperatures and the thermal activation energy estimated from the Arrhenius model is 0.35±0.21 eV. As a result, the magnitude of the energy barrier implies that the complicated energy landscape of the domain structures is induced by pinning mechanisms and domain patterns fluctuate via the generation and annihilation of topological defects similar to soft materials such as block copolymers.« less

Characterization of traffic-related PM concentration distribution and fluctuation patterns in near-highway urban residential street canyons.

PubMed

Hahn, Intaek; Brixey, Laurie A; Wiener, Russell W; Henkle, Stacy W; Baldauf, Richard

2009-12-01

Analyses of outdoor traffic-related particulate matter (PM) concentration distribution and fluctuation patterns in urban street canyons within a microscale distance of less than 500 m from a highway source are presented as part of the results from the Brooklyn Traffic Real-Time Ambient Pollutant Penetration and Environmental Dispersion (B-TRAPPED) study. Various patterns of spatial and temporal changes in the street canyon PM concentrations were investigated using time-series data of real-time PM concentrations measured during multiple monitoring periods. Concurrent time-series data of local street canyon wind conditions and wind data from the John F. Kennedy (JFK) International Airport National Weather Service (NWS) were used to characterize the effects of various wind conditions on the behavior of street canyon PM concentrations.Our results suggest that wind direction may strongly influence time-averaged mean PM concentration distribution patterns in near-highway urban street canyons. The rooftop-level wind speeds were found to be strongly correlated with the PM concentration fluctuation intensities in the middle sections of the street blocks. The ambient turbulence generated by shifting local wind directions (angles) showed a good correlation with the PM concentration fluctuation intensities along the entire distance of the first and second street blocks only when the wind angle standard deviations were larger than 30 degrees. Within-canyon turbulent shearing, caused by fluctuating local street canyon wind speeds, showed no correlation with PM concentration fluctuation intensities. The time-averaged mean PM concentration distribution along the longitudinal distances of the street blocks when wind direction was mostly constantly parallel to the street was found to be similar to the distribution pattern for the entire monitoring period when wind direction fluctuated wildly. Finally, we showed that two different PM concentration metrics-time-averaged mean concentration and number of concentration peaks above a certain threshold level-can possibly lead to different assessments of spatial concentration distribution patterns.

Linkage Disequilibrium Under Recurrent Bottlenecks

PubMed Central

Schaper, E.; Eriksson, A.; Rafajlovic, M.; Sagitov, S.; Mehlig, B.

2012-01-01

To model deviations from selectively neutral genetic variation caused by different forms of selection, it is necessary to first understand patterns of neutral variation. Best understood is neutral genetic variation at a single locus. But, as is well known, additional insights can be gained by investigating multiple loci. The resulting patterns reflect the degree of association (linkage) between loci and provide information about the underlying multilocus gene genealogies. The statistical properties of two-locus gene genealogies have been intensively studied for populations of constant size, as well as for simple demographic histories such as exponential population growth and single bottlenecks. By contrast, the combined effect of recombination and sustained demographic fluctuations is poorly understood. Addressing this issue, we study a two-locus Wright–Fisher model of a population subject to recurrent bottlenecks. We derive coalescent approximations for the covariance of the times to the most recent common ancestor at two loci in samples of two chromosomes. This covariance reflects the degree of association and thus linkage disequilibrium between these loci. We find, first, that an effective population-size approximation describes the numerically observed association between two loci provided that recombination occurs either much faster or much more slowly than the population-size fluctuations. Second, when recombination occurs frequently between but rarely within bottlenecks, we observe that the association of gene histories becomes independent of physical distance over a certain range of distances. Third, we show that in this case, a commonly used measure of linkage disequilibrium, σd2 (closely related to r^2), fails to capture the long-range association between two loci. The reason is that constituent terms, each reflecting the long-range association, cancel. Fourth, we analyze a limiting case in which the long-range association can be described in terms of a Xi coalescent allowing for simultaneous multiple mergers of ancestral lines. PMID:22048021

Effects of Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations on mangrove population dynamics: a lesson from Sonneratia alba.

PubMed

Yang, Yuchen; Li, Jianfang; Yang, Shuhuan; Li, Xinnian; Fang, Lu; Zhong, Cairong; Duke, Norman C; Zhou, Renchao; Shi, Suhua

2017-01-18

A large-scale systematical investigation of the influence of Pleistocene climate oscillation on mangrove population dynamics could enrich our knowledge about the evolutionary history during times of historical climate change, which in turn may provide important information for their conservation. In this study, phylogeography of a mangrove tree Sonneratia alba was studied by sequencing three chloroplast fragments and seven nuclear genes. A low level of genetic diversity at the population level was detected across its range, especially at the range margins, which was mainly attributed to the steep sea-level drop and associated climate fluctuations during the Pleistocene glacial periods. Extremely small effective population size (Ne) was inferred in populations from both eastern and western Malay Peninsula (44 and 396, respectively), mirroring the fragility of mangrove plants and their paucity of robustness against future climate perturbations and human activity. Two major genetic lineages of high divergence were identified in the two mangrove biodiversity centres: the Indo-Malesia and Australasia regions. The estimated splitting time between these two lineages was 3.153 million year ago (MYA), suggesting a role for pre-Pleistocene events in shaping the major diversity patterns of mangrove species. Within the Indo-Malesia region, a subdivision was implicated between the South China Sea (SCS) and the remaining area with a divergence time of 1.874 MYA, corresponding to glacial vicariance when the emerged Sunda Shelf halted genetic exchange between the western and eastern coasts of the Malay Peninsula during Pleistocene sea-level drops. Notably, genetic admixture was observed in populations at the boundary regions, especially in the two populations near the Malacca Strait, indicating secondary contact between divergent lineages during interglacial periods. These interregional genetic exchanges provided ample opportunity for the re-use of standing genetic variation, which could facilitate mangrove establishment and adaptation in new habitats, especially in the context of global climate changes. Phylogeogrpahic analysis in this study reveal that Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations had profound influence on population differentiation of the mangrove tree S. alba. Our study highlights the fragility of mangrove plants and offers a guide for the conservation of coastal mangrove communities experiencing ongoing changes in sea-level.

Fluctuation-Driven Neural Dynamics Reproduce Drosophila Locomotor Patterns

PubMed Central

Cruchet, Steeve; Gustafson, Kyle; Benton, Richard; Floreano, Dario

2015-01-01

The neural mechanisms determining the timing of even simple actions, such as when to walk or rest, are largely mysterious. One intriguing, but untested, hypothesis posits a role for ongoing activity fluctuations in neurons of central action selection circuits that drive animal behavior from moment to moment. To examine how fluctuating activity can contribute to action timing, we paired high-resolution measurements of freely walking Drosophila melanogaster with data-driven neural network modeling and dynamical systems analysis. We generated fluctuation-driven network models whose outputs—locomotor bouts—matched those measured from sensory-deprived Drosophila. From these models, we identified those that could also reproduce a second, unrelated dataset: the complex time-course of odor-evoked walking for genetically diverse Drosophila strains. Dynamical models that best reproduced both Drosophila basal and odor-evoked locomotor patterns exhibited specific characteristics. First, ongoing fluctuations were required. In a stochastic resonance-like manner, these fluctuations allowed neural activity to escape stable equilibria and to exceed a threshold for locomotion. Second, odor-induced shifts of equilibria in these models caused a depression in locomotor frequency following olfactory stimulation. Our models predict that activity fluctuations in action selection circuits cause behavioral output to more closely match sensory drive and may therefore enhance navigation in complex sensory environments. Together these data reveal how simple neural dynamics, when coupled with activity fluctuations, can give rise to complex patterns of animal behavior. PMID:26600381

The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

PubMed

Jian, Yun; Silvestri, Sonia; Brown, Jeff; Hickman, Rick; Marani, Marco

2014-01-01

An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks) are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month) observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month) environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual) mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the abundance of the underlying population.

Fluctuation-controlled front propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridgway, Douglas Thacher

1997-09-01

A number of fundamental pattern-forming systems are controlled by fluctuations at the front. These problems involve the interaction of an infinite dimensional probability distribution with a strongly nonlinear, spatially extended pattern-forming system. We have examined fluctuation-controlled growth in the context of the specific problems of diffusion-limited growth and biological evolution. Mean field theory of diffusion-limited growth exhibits a finite time singularity. Near the leading edge of a diffusion-limited front, this leads to acceleration and blowup. This may be resolved, in an ad hoc manner, by introducing a cutoff below which growth is weakened or eliminated (8). This model, referred to as the BLT model, captures a number of qualitative features of global pattern formation in diffusion-limited aggregation: contours of the mean field match contours of averaged particle density in simulation, and the modified mean field theory can form dendritic features not possible in the naive mean field theory. The morphology transition between dendritic and non-dendritic global patterns requires that BLT fronts have a Mullins-Sekerka instability of the wavefront shape, in order to form concave patterns. We compute the stability of BLT fronts numerically, and compare the results to fronts without a cutoff. A significant morphological instability of the BLT fronts exists, with a dominant wavenumber on the scale of the front width. For standard mean field fronts, no instability is found. The naive and ad hoc mean field theories are continuum-deterministic models intended to capture the behavior of a discrete stochastic system. A transformation which maps discrete systems into a continuum model with a singular multiplicative noise is known, however numerical simulations of the continuum stochastic system often give mean field behavior instead of the critical behavior of the discrete system. We have found a new interpretation of the singular noise, based on maintaining the symmetry of the absorbing state, but which is unsuccessful at capturing the behavior of diffusion-limited growth. In an effort to find a simpler model system, we turned to modelling fitness increases in evolution. The work was motivated by an experiment on vesicular stomatitis virus, a short (˜9600bp) single-stranded RNA virus. A highly bottlenecked viral population increases in fitness rapidly until a certain point, after which the fitness increases at a slower rate. This is well modeled by a constant population reproducing and mutating on a smooth fitness landscape. Mean field theory of this system displays the same infinite propagation velocity blowup as mean field diffusion-limited aggregation. However, we have been able to make progress on a number of fronts. One is solving systems of moment equations, where a hierarchy of moments is truncated arbitrarily at some level. Good results for front propagation velocity are found with just two moments, corresponding to inclusion of the basic finite population clustering effect ignored by mean field theory. In addition, for small mutation rates, most of the population will be entirely on a single site or two adjacent sites, and the density of these cases can be described and solved. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Adaptive Sex Determination and Population Dynamics in a Brackish-water Amphipod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watt, Penelope J.; Adams, Jonathan

1993-09-01

Gammarus duebeni is a sexually dimorphic amphipod with an unusual and environmentally mediated sex determining system. In seasonal populations, environmental sex determination (ESD) is selectively advantageous and males and females are produced at different times of the year, but it has been predicted that where generations overlap or the breeding season is long, ESD should no longer have a selective advantage over genetic mechanisms of sex determination and males and females should be produced simultaneously. The dynamics of a supposedly bivoltine population at Totton Marsh on the south coast of England were investigated. The field study showed that the breeding season at Totton was not in fact bivoltine but long, extending through most of the year with a short break in early summer. Population sex ratio fluctuated seasonally: this pattern appears to be the product of differences in production of males and females rather than growth or mortality. Thus, contrary to expectations, ESD does occur in this population. Photoperiod is the cue for sex determination in the laboratory, but in the field this alone could not account for the observed pattern of male and female production at Totton Marsh. Another major variable must be involved and it is proposed that it also has an influence on other G. duebeni populations.

Characterizing pixel and point patterns with a hyperuniformity disorder length.

PubMed

Chieco, A T; Dreyfus, R; Durian, D J

2017-09-01

We introduce the concept of a "hyperuniformity disorder length" h that controls the variance of volume fraction fluctuations for randomly placed windows of fixed size. In particular, fluctuations are determined by the average number of particles within a distance h from the boundary of the window. We first compute special expectations and bounds in d dimensions, and then illustrate the range of behavior of h versus window size L by analyzing several different types of simulated two-dimensional pixel patterns-where particle positions are stored as a binary digital image in which pixels have value zero if empty and one if they contain a particle. The first are random binomial patterns, where pixels are randomly flipped from zero to one with probability equal to area fraction. These have long-ranged density fluctuations, and simulations confirm the exact result h=L/2. Next we consider vacancy patterns, where a fraction f of particles on a lattice are randomly removed. These also display long-range density fluctuations, but with h=(L/2)(f/d) for small f, and h=L/2 for f→1. And finally, for a hyperuniform system with no long-range density fluctuations, we consider "Einstein patterns," where each particle is independently displaced from a lattice site by a Gaussian-distributed amount. For these, at large L,h approaches a constant equal to about half the root-mean-square displacement in each dimension. Then we turn to gray-scale pixel patterns that represent simulated arrangements of polydisperse particles, where the volume of a particle is encoded in the value of its central pixel. And we discuss the continuum limit of point patterns, where pixel size vanishes. In general, we thus propose to quantify particle configurations not just by the scaling of the density fluctuation spectrum but rather by the real-space spectrum of h(L) versus L. We call this approach "hyperuniformity disorder length spectroscopy".

Transitions in optimal adaptive strategies for populations in fluctuating environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Andreas; Mora, Thierry; Rivoire, Olivier; Walczak, Aleksandra M.

2017-09-01

Biological populations are subject to fluctuating environmental conditions. Different adaptive strategies can allow them to cope with these fluctuations: specialization to one particular environmental condition, adoption of a generalist phenotype that compromises between conditions, or population-wise diversification (bet hedging). Which strategy provides the largest selective advantage in the long run depends on the range of accessible phenotypes and the statistics of the environmental fluctuations. Here, we analyze this problem in a simple mathematical model of population growth. First, we review and extend a graphical method to identify the nature of the optimal strategy when the environmental fluctuations are uncorrelated. Temporal correlations in environmental fluctuations open up new strategies that rely on memory but are mathematically challenging to study: We present analytical results to address this challenge. We illustrate our general approach by analyzing optimal adaptive strategies in the presence of trade-offs that constrain the range of accessible phenotypes. Our results extend several previous studies and have applications to a variety of biological phenomena, from antibiotic resistance in bacteria to immune responses in vertebrates.

Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of gas-liquid two-phase flow pattern based on image texture spectrum descriptor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xi-Guo; Jin, Ning-De; Wang, Zhen-Ya; Zhang, Wen-Yin

2009-11-01

The dynamic image information of typical gas-liquid two-phase flow patterns in vertical upward pipe is captured by a highspeed dynamic camera. The texture spectrum descriptor is used to describe the texture characteristics of the processed images whose content is represented in the form of texture spectrum histogram, and four time-varying characteristic parameter indexes which represent image texture structure of different flow patterns are extracted. The study results show that the amplitude fluctuation of texture characteristic parameter indexes of bubble flow is lowest and shows very random complex dynamic behavior; the amplitude fluctuation of slug flow is higher and shows intermittent motion behavior between gas slug and liquid slug, and the amplitude fluctuation of churn flow is the highest and shows better periodicity; the amplitude fluctuation of bubble-slug flow is from low to high and oscillating frequence is higher than that of slug flow, and includes the features of both slug flow and bubble flow; the slug-churn flow loses the periodicity of slug flow and churn flow, and the amplitude fluctuation is high. The results indicate that the image texture characteristic parameter indexes of different flow pattern can reflect the flow characteristics of gas-liquid two-phase flow, which provides a new approach to understand the temporal and spatial evolution of flow pattern dynamics.

The nature and perception of fluctuations in human musical rhythms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennig, Holger; Fleischmann, Ragnar; Fredebohm, Anneke; Hagmayer, York; Nagler, Jan; Witt, Annette; Theis, Fabian; Geisel, Theo

2012-02-01

Although human musical performances represent one of the most valuable achievements of mankind, the best musicians perform imperfectly. Musical rhythms are not entirely accurate and thus inevitably deviate from the ideal beat pattern. Nevertheless, computer generated perfect beat patterns are frequently devalued by listeners due to a perceived lack of human touch. Professional audio editing software therefore offers a humanizing feature which artificially generates rhythmic fluctuations. However, the built-in humanizing units are essentially random number generators producing only simple uncorrelated fluctuations. Here, for the first time, we establish long-range fluctuations as an inevitable natural companion of both simple and complex human rhythmic performances [1]. Moreover, we demonstrate that listeners strongly prefer long-range correlated fluctuations in musical rhythms. Thus, the favorable fluctuation type for humanizing interbeat intervals coincides with the one generically inherent in human musical performances. [1] HH et al., PLoS ONE,6,e26457 (2011)

Patterns of morning and evening fatigue among adults with HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Lerdal, Anners; Gay, Caryl L; Aouizerat, Bradley E; Portillo, Carmen J; Lee, Kathryn A

2011-08-01

Describe patterns of morning and evening fatigue in adults with HIV and examine their relationship to demographic and clinical factors and other symptoms. Most studies of HIV-related fatigue assess average levels of fatigue and do not address its diurnal fluctuations. Patterns of fatigue over the course of the day may have important implications for assessment and treatment. A cross-sectional, correlational design was used with six repeated measures over 72 hours. A convenience sample of 318 HIV-infected adults was recruited in San Francisco. Socio-demographic, clinical and symptom data were collected with questionnaires. CD4+ T-cell count and viral load were obtained from medical records. Participants completed a four-item version of the Lee Fatigue Scale each morning and evening for three consecutive days. Participants were grouped based on their diurnal pattern of fatigue (high evening only, high morning only, high morning and evening and low morning and evening). Group comparisons and logistic regression were used to determine the unique predictors of each fatigue pattern. The high evening fatigue pattern was associated with anxiety and the high morning pattern was associated with anxiety and depression. The morning fatigue pattern showed very little fluctuation between morning and evening, the evening pattern showed the largest fluctuation. The high morning and evening pattern was associated with anxiety, depression and sleep disturbance and this group reported the most fatigue-related distress and interference in functioning. These results provide initial evidence for the importance of assessing the patient's daily pattern of fatigue fluctuation, as different patterns were associated with different symptom experiences and perhaps different aetiologies. Different fatigue patterns may benefit from tailored intervention strategies. Management of depressive symptoms could be tested in patients who experience high levels of morning fatigue. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Dissipative neutrino oscillations in randomly fluctuating matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benatti, F.; Floreanini, R.

2005-01-01

The generalized dynamics describing the propagation of neutrinos in randomly fluctuating media is analyzed: It takes into account matter-induced, decoherence phenomena that go beyond the standard Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) effect. A widely adopted density fluctuation pattern is found to be physically untenable: A more general model needs to be instead considered, leading to flavor changing effective neutrino-matter interactions. They induce new, dissipative effects that modify the neutrino oscillation pattern in a way amenable to a direct experimental analysis.

Niche partitioning among frugivorous fishes in response to fluctuating resources in the Amazonian floodplain forest.

PubMed

Correa, Sandra Bibiana; Winemiller, Kirk O

2014-01-01

In response to temporal changes in the quality and availability of food resources, consumers should adjust their foraging behavior in a manner that maximizes energy and nutrient intake and, when resources are limiting, minimizes dietary overlap with other consumers. Floodplains of the Amazon and its lowland tributaries are characterized by strong, yet predictable, hydrological seasonality, seasonal availability of fruits, seeds, and other food resources of terrestrial origin, and diverse assemblages of frugivorous fishes, including morphologically similar species of several characiform families. Here, we investigated how diets of frugivorous fishes in the Amazon change in response to fluctuations in food availability, and how this influences patterns of interspecific dietary overlap. We tested predictions from classical theories of foraging and resource competition by estimating changes in diet breadth and overlap across seasons. We monitored fruiting phenology to assess food availability, and surveyed local fish populations during three hydrological seasons in an oligotrophic river and an adjacent oxbow lake in the Colombian Amazon. We analyzed stomach contents and stable isotope data to evaluate temporal and interspecific relationships for dietary composition, breadth, and overlap. Diets of six species of characiform fishes representing three genera changed according to seasonal fluctuations in food availability, and patterns of diet breadth and interspecific overlap during the peak flood pulse were consistent with predictions of optimal foraging theory. During times of high fruit abundance, fishes consumed items to which their functional morphological traits seemed best adapted, potentially enhancing net energy and nutritional gains. As the annual flood pulse subsided and availability of forest food resources in aquatic habitats changed, there was not a consistent pattern of diet breadth expansion or compression. Nonetheless, shifts in both diet composition and stable isotope ratios of consumer tissues during this period resulted in trophic niche segregation in a pattern consistent with competition theory.

Seahorse (Hippocampinae) population fluctuations in the Ria Formosa Lagoon, south Portugal.

PubMed

Correia, M; Caldwell, I R; Koldewey, H J; Andrade, J P; Palma, J

2015-09-01

Comparisons of three sets of surveys in the Ria Formosa Lagoon, Portugal, over a 13 year period (2001-2002, 2008-2009 and 2010-2013) revealed significant population fluctuations in at least one of the two seahorse (Hippocampinae) species living there, and that those fluctuations were potentially associated with habitat changes in the lagoon. After a significant decline between the first two survey periods (2001-2002 v. 2008-2009), long-snouted seahorse Hippocampus guttulatus populations increased significantly between 2008-2009 surveys and new 2010-2013 surveys. There were no significant differences in H. guttulatus populations between the 2001-2002 and 2010-2013 surveys. In contrast, there were no significant differences in short-snouted seahorse Hippocampus hippocampus densities among the 16 sites surveyed throughout the three sampling periods, although the ability to detect any change was hampered by the low densities of this species in all time periods. Fluctuations in H. guttulatus densities were positively correlated with the percentage of holdfast coverage, but with none of the other environmental variables tested. These results highlight the importance of holdfast availability in maintaining stable seahorse populations. While population fluctuations are certainly more promising than a consistent downward decline, such extreme fluctuations observed for seahorses in the Ria Formosa Lagoon could still leave these two species vulnerable to any additional stressors, particularly during low density periods. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles.

PubMed

Barraquand, Frédéric; Louca, Stilianos; Abbott, Karen C; Cobbold, Christina A; Cordoleani, Flora; DeAngelis, Donald L; Elderd, Bret D; Fox, Jeremy W; Greenwood, Priscilla; Hilker, Frank M; Murray, Dennis L; Stieha, Christopher R; Taylor, Rachel A; Vitense, Kelsey; Wolkowicz, Gail S K; Tyson, Rebecca C

2017-08-01

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer-resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Moving forward in circles: Challenges and opportunities in modeling population cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barraquand, Frederic; Louca, Stilianos; Abbott, Karen C; Cobbold, Christina A; Cordoleani, Flora; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Elderd, Bret D; Fox, Jeremy W; Greenwood, Priscilla; Hilker, Frank M; Murray, Dennis; Stieha, Christopher R; Taylor, Rachel A; Vitense, Kelsey; Wolkowicz, Gail; Tyson, Rebecca C

2017-01-01

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer–resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research.

Fluctuations of Lightning Casualties in the United States: 1959-1990.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López, Raúl E.; Holle, Ronald L.

1996-03-01

Long-term fluctuations in the number of lightning deaths and injuries from 1959 to 1990 have been examined for the contiguous United States. After taking into account the population increase, there was an overall trend amounting to a 30% reduction in casualties during the period. It is possible that this trend resulted from improved forecasts and warnings, increased education efforts of the public, and socioeconomic changes.In addition, there was a 40% reduction in the number of deaths but not of nonfatal injuries. This additional reduction in deaths was probably due to improved medical attention given to lightning victims and a wider knowledge of cardiopulmonary resuscitation techniques among the public. Improved medical care would increase the chances of a person surviving a lightning strike but would not affect the total number of casualties.Superimposed on the overall downward trend there were fluctuations of one or two decades in duration. From 1959 until 1968 there was a sharp reduction in the number of casualties, but starting in 1969 and continuing until the present, there was an overall increase. These oscillations appear to be climatologically related. The patterns of these fluctuations were parallel to nationwide changes in thunder-day frequencies, cyclone frequencies, and surface temperature values, representing thunderstorm, synoptic, and continental scales.

Biological evolution of replicator systems: towards a quantitative approach.

PubMed

Martin, Osmel; Horvath, J E

2013-04-01

The aim of this work is to study the features of a simple replicator chemical model of the relation between kinetic stability and entropy production under the action of external perturbations. We quantitatively explore the different paths leading to evolution in a toy model where two independent replicators compete for the same substrate. To do that, the same scenario described originally by Pross (J Phys Org Chem 17:312-316, 2004) is revised and new criteria to define the kinetic stability are proposed. Our results suggest that fast replicator populations are continually favored by the effects of strong stochastic environmental fluctuations capable to determine the global population, the former assumed to be the only acting evolution force. We demonstrate that the process is continually driven by strong perturbations only, and that population crashes may be useful proxies for these catastrophic environmental fluctuations. As expected, such behavior is particularly enhanced under very large scale perturbations, suggesting a likely dynamical footprint in the recovery patterns of new species after mass extinction events in the Earth's geological past. Furthermore, the hypothesis that natural selection always favors the faster processes may give theoretical support to different studies that claim the applicability of maximum principles like the Maximum Metabolic Flux (MMF) or Maximum Entropy Productions Principle (MEPP), seen as the main goal of biological evolution.

Biological Evolution of Replicator Systems: Towards a Quantitative Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Osmel; Horvath, J. E.

2013-04-01

The aim of this work is to study the features of a simple replicator chemical model of the relation between kinetic stability and entropy production under the action of external perturbations. We quantitatively explore the different paths leading to evolution in a toy model where two independent replicators compete for the same substrate. To do that, the same scenario described originally by Pross (J Phys Org Chem 17:312-316, 2004) is revised and new criteria to define the kinetic stability are proposed. Our results suggest that fast replicator populations are continually favored by the effects of strong stochastic environmental fluctuations capable to determine the global population, the former assumed to be the only acting evolution force. We demonstrate that the process is continually driven by strong perturbations only, and that population crashes may be useful proxies for these catastrophic environmental fluctuations. As expected, such behavior is particularly enhanced under very large scale perturbations, suggesting a likely dynamical footprint in the recovery patterns of new species after mass extinction events in the Earth's geological past. Furthermore, the hypothesis that natural selection always favors the faster processes may give theoretical support to different studies that claim the applicability of maximum principles like the Maximum Metabolic Flux (MMF) or Maximum Entropy Productions Principle (MEPP), seen as the main goal of biological evolution.

Fission-fusion and lineal effect: aspects of the population structure of the Semai Senoi of Malaysia.

PubMed

Fix, A G

1975-09-01

Analysis of histories and genealogies from seven relatively unacculturated, swidden-farming Semai settlements shows that the composition of local groups fluctuates through time. This instability is similar to a pattern which Neel and his colleagues have suggested is typical of primitive society, the fission-fusion model. In addition, the individuals comprising Semai fission groups are kinsmen which implies that the number of independent genomes represented is markedly less than the number of individual migrants (the lineal effect). Fission groups may form new villages or fuse with an established settlement. In either case, the genetic effects of such migration are more pronounced than would be expected on the basis of founder effect or random migration. Despite several conspicuous differences in social organization between the Semai and the South American Indians (e.g., bilateral vs. unilineal descent) whose population structure provided the empirical basis for the fission-fusion, lineal effect model, the basic similarities are striking. The Semai case thus lends support to the proposition that this pattern may be of some generality in technologically primitive populations.

Complex patterns of response to oral hygiene instructions: longitudinal evaluation of periodontal patients.

PubMed

Amoo-Achampong, Felice; Vitunac, David E; Deeley, Kathleen; Modesto, Adriana; Vieira, Alexandre R

2018-05-02

Oral hygiene instruction is an intervention widely practiced but increased knowledge about oral health does not necessarily dramatically impact oral disease prevalence in populations. We aimed to measure plaque and bleeding in periodontal patients over time to determine patterns of patient response to oral hygiene instructions. Longitudinal plaque and bleeding index data were evaluated in 227 periodontal patients to determine the impact of oral hygiene instructions. Over multiple visits, we determined relative plaque accumulation and gingival bleeding for each patient. Subsequently, we grouped them in three types of oral hygiene status in response to initial instructions, using the longitudinal data over the period they were treated and followed for their periodontal needs. These patterns of oral hygiene based on the plaque and gingival bleeding indexes were evaluated based on age, sex, ethnic background, interleukin 1 alpha and beta genotypes, diabetes status, smoking habits, and other concomitant diseases. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used to determine if any differences between these variables were statistically significant with alpha set at 0.05. Three patterns in response to oral hygiene instructions emerged. Plaque and gingival bleeding indexes improved, worsened, or fluctuated over time in the periodontal patients studied. Out of all the confounders considered, only ethnic background showed statistically significant differences. White individuals more often than other ethnic groups fluctuated in regards to oral hygiene quality after instructions. There are different responses to professional oral hygiene instructions. These responses may be related to ethnicity.

A phylogeographic study of the endemic rodent Eliurus carletoni (Rodentia: Nesomyinae) in an ecological transition zone of Northern Madagascar.

PubMed

Rakotoarisoa, Jean-Eric; Raheriarisena, Martin; Goodman, Steven M

2013-01-01

We conducted a mitochondrial phylogeographic study of the endemic dry forest rodent Eliurus carletoni (Rodentia: Nesomyinae) in an ecological transition zone of northern Madagascar (Loky-Manambato) and 2 surrounding regions (Ankarana and Analamerana). The main goal was to assess the evolutionary consequences on this taxon of the complex landscape features and Quaternary ecological vicissitudes. Three haplogroups were identified from the 215 specimens obtained from 15 populations. High levels of genetic diversity and significant genetic differentiation among populations were observed. The different geographical subdivisions of the study area by regions, by river catchment zones, and the physical distance between populations are not correlated with genetic patterns. In contrast, population structure is mostly explained by the geographic distribution of the samples among existing forest blocks. E. carletoni experienced a genetic bottleneck between 18 750 and 7500 years BP, which correlates with periods when moister climates existed on the island. Overall, our data suggest that the complex genetic patterns of E. carletoni can be explained by Quaternary climatic vicissitudes that resulted in habitat fluctuations between dry and humid forests, as well as subsequent human-induced fragmentation of forest habitat.

White noise and synchronization shaping the age structure of the human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cebrat, Stanislaw; Biecek, Przemyslaw; Bonkowska, Katarzyna; Kula, Mateusz

2007-06-01

We have modified the standard diploid Penna model of ageing in such a way that instead of threshold of defective loci resulting in genetic death of individuals, the fluctuation of environment and "personal" fluctuations of individuals were introduced. The sum of the both fluctuations describes the health status of the individual. While environmental fluctuations are the same for all individuals in the population, the personal component of fluctuations is composed of fluctuations corresponding to each physiological function (gene, genetic locus). It is rather accepted hypothesis that physiological parameters of any organism fluctuate highly nonlinearly. Transition to the synchronized behaviors could be a very strong diagnostic signal of the life threatening disorder. Thus, in our model, mutations of genes change the chaotic fluctuations representing the function of a wild gene to the synchronized signals generated by mutated genes. Genes are switched on chronologically, like in the standard Penna model. Accumulation of defective genes predicted by Medawar's theory of ageing leads to the replacement of uncorrelated white noise corresponding to the healthy organism by the correlated signals of defective functions. As a result we have got the age distribution of population corresponding to the human demographic data.

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large-scale climate forcing over the North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloern, James E.; Hieb, Kathryn A.; Jacobson, Teresa; Sansó, Bruno; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Stacey, Mark T.; Largier, John L.; Meiring, Wendy; Peterson, William T.; Powell, Thomas M.; Winder, Monika; Jassby, Alan D.

2010-11-01

Long-term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large-scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record-high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two-thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.

Synchrony in broadband fluctuation and the 2008 financial crisis.

PubMed

Lin, Der Chyan

2013-01-01

We propose phase-like characteristics in scale-free broadband processes and consider fluctuation synchrony based on the temporal signature of significant amplitude fluctuation. Using wavelet transform, successful captures of similar fluctuation pattern between such broadband processes are demonstrated. The application to the financial data leading to the 2008 financial crisis reveals the transition towards a qualitatively different dynamical regime with many equity price in fluctuation synchrony. Further analysis suggests an underlying scale free "price fluctuation network" with large clustering coefficient.

Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles.

PubMed

Voutilainen, Liina; Kallio, Eva R; Niemimaa, Jukka; Vapalahti, Olli; Henttonen, Heikki

2016-02-18

Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seasonal pattern reflecting the annual population turnover and accumulation of infections within each year cohort. In autumn, the PUUV transmission rate tracked increasing host abundance, suggesting a density-dependent transmission. However, prevalence of PUUV infection was similar during the increase and peak years of the density cycle despite a twofold difference in host density. This may result from the high proportion of individuals carrying maternal antibodies constraining transmission during the cycle peak years. Our exceptionally intensive and long-term dataset provides a solid basis on which to develop models to predict the dynamic public health threat posed by PUUV in northern Europe.

Shoreline changes at the mouths of the Mekong River delta over the last 50 years: fluctuating sediment supply and shoreline cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthony, E.; Besset, M.; Brunier, G.; Dussouillez, P.; Dolique, F.; Nguyen, V. L.; Goichot, M.

2014-12-01

River delta shorelines may be characterized by complex patterns of sediment transport and sequestering at various timescales in response to changes in sediment supply, hydrodynamic conditions, and deltaic self-organization. While being good indicators of delta stability, these changes also have important coastal management and defence implications. These aspects are examined with reference to the mouths of the Mekong River delta, the world's third largest delta, backbone of the Vietnamese economy and home to nearly 20 million people. We conducted an analysis of shoreline fluctuations over the last five decades using low-resolution Landsat (1973-2014), very high-resolution SPOT 5 (2003-2011) satellite imagery, topographic maps (1950, 1965), and field hydrodynamic and shoreline topographic measurements. The results show that the 250 km-long river-mouth sector of the delta shoreline has been characterized by overall accretion but with marked temporal and spatial variations. The temporal pattern is attributed to fluctuations in sediment supply due to both human activities and natural variations in catchment sediment loads (e.g., 2000-2003), and natural adjustments in delta-plain sediment storage and delivery to the coast. The spatial pattern is indicative of discrete sediment cells that may be a response to an overall decreasing sand supply, especially since 2003, following increasingly massive riverbed mining with concomitant losses in channel-bed sand. Field measurements show the prevalence of mesotidal bar-trough beaches characterized by sand migration to the southwest in response to energetic dry-season monsoon waves. Beaches underfed as a result of both wave-energy gradients and possible diminishing sand supply from the adjacent river mouths are eroded to feed accreting beaches. Understanding this cell pattern has important implications in terms of: (1) interpreting past patterns of shoreline translation involved in the construction of successive beach ridges that characterise the prograding mouths sector of the Mekong; (2) linking shoreline stability/instability with coastal sand supply by the Mekong River and the impacts of human activities on this supply; (3) shoreline management and defence planning in the critical sandy river-mouth sector of this densely populated delta.

Density dependence in demography and dispersal generates fluctuating invasion speeds

PubMed Central

Li, Bingtuan; Miller, Tom E. X.

2017-01-01

Density dependence plays an important role in population regulation and is known to generate temporal fluctuations in population density. However, the ways in which density dependence affects spatial population processes, such as species invasions, are less understood. Although classical ecological theory suggests that invasions should advance at a constant speed, empirical work is illuminating the highly variable nature of biological invasions, which often exhibit nonconstant spreading speeds, even in simple, controlled settings. Here, we explore endogenous density dependence as a mechanism for inducing variability in biological invasions with a set of population models that incorporate density dependence in demographic and dispersal parameters. We show that density dependence in demography at low population densities—i.e., an Allee effect—combined with spatiotemporal variability in population density behind the invasion front can produce fluctuations in spreading speed. The density fluctuations behind the front can arise from either overcompensatory population growth or density-dependent dispersal, both of which are common in nature. Our results show that simple rules can generate complex spread dynamics and highlight a source of variability in biological invasions that may aid in ecological forecasting. PMID:28442569

Characterizing pixel and point patterns with a hyperuniformity disorder length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chieco, A. T.; Dreyfus, R.; Durian, D. J.

2017-09-01

We introduce the concept of a "hyperuniformity disorder length" h that controls the variance of volume fraction fluctuations for randomly placed windows of fixed size. In particular, fluctuations are determined by the average number of particles within a distance h from the boundary of the window. We first compute special expectations and bounds in d dimensions, and then illustrate the range of behavior of h versus window size L by analyzing several different types of simulated two-dimensional pixel patterns—where particle positions are stored as a binary digital image in which pixels have value zero if empty and one if they contain a particle. The first are random binomial patterns, where pixels are randomly flipped from zero to one with probability equal to area fraction. These have long-ranged density fluctuations, and simulations confirm the exact result h =L /2 . Next we consider vacancy patterns, where a fraction f of particles on a lattice are randomly removed. These also display long-range density fluctuations, but with h =(L /2 )(f /d ) for small f , and h =L /2 for f →1 . And finally, for a hyperuniform system with no long-range density fluctuations, we consider "Einstein patterns," where each particle is independently displaced from a lattice site by a Gaussian-distributed amount. For these, at large L ,h approaches a constant equal to about half the root-mean-square displacement in each dimension. Then we turn to gray-scale pixel patterns that represent simulated arrangements of polydisperse particles, where the volume of a particle is encoded in the value of its central pixel. And we discuss the continuum limit of point patterns, where pixel size vanishes. In general, we thus propose to quantify particle configurations not just by the scaling of the density fluctuation spectrum but rather by the real-space spectrum of h (L ) versus L . We call this approach "hyperuniformity disorder length spectroscopy".

RAINIER: A simulation tool for distributions of excited nuclear states and cascade fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirsch, L. E.; Bernstein, L. A.

2018-06-01

A new code has been developed named RAINIER that simulates the γ-ray decay of discrete and quasi-continuum nuclear levels for a user-specified range of energy, angular momentum, and parity including a realistic treatment of level spacing and transition width fluctuations. A similar program, DICEBOX, uses the Monte Carlo method to simulate level and width fluctuations but is restricted in its initial level population algorithm. On the other hand, modern reaction codes such as TALYS and EMPIRE populate a wide range of states in the residual nucleus prior to γ-ray decay, but do not go beyond the use of deterministic functions and therefore neglect cascade fluctuations. This combination of capabilities allows RAINIER to be used to determine quasi-continuum properties through comparison with experimental data. Several examples are given that demonstrate how cascade fluctuations influence experimental high-resolution γ-ray spectra from reactions that populate a wide range of initial states.

Effect of oxygen minimum zone formation on communities of marine protists

PubMed Central

Orsi, William; Song, Young C; Hallam, Steven; Edgcomb, Virginia

2012-01-01

Changes in ocean temperature and circulation patterns compounded by human activities are leading to oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) expansion with concomitant alteration in nutrient and climate active trace gas cycling. Here, we report the response of microbial eukaryote populations to seasonal changes in water column oxygen-deficiency using Saanich Inlet, a seasonally anoxic fjord on the coast of Vancouver Island British Columbia, as a model ecosystem. We combine small subunit ribosomal RNA gene sequencing approaches with multivariate statistical methods to reveal shifts in operational taxonomic units during successive stages of seasonal stratification and renewal. A meta-analysis is used to identify common and unique patterns of community composition between Saanich Inlet and the anoxic/sulfidic Cariaco Basin (Venezuela) and Framvaren Fjord (Norway) to show shared and unique responses of microbial eukaryotes to oxygen and sulfide in these three environments. Our analyses also reveal temporal fluctuations in rare populations of microbial eukaryotes, particularly anaerobic ciliates, that may be of significant importance to the biogeochemical cycling of methane in OMZs. PMID:22402396

Stochastic many-body problems in ecology, evolution, neuroscience, and systems biology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, Thomas C.

Using the tools of many-body theory, I analyze problems in four different areas of biology dominated by strong fluctuations: The evolutionary history of the genetic code, spatiotemporal pattern formation in ecology, spatiotemporal pattern formation in neuroscience and the robustness of a model circadian rhythm circuit in systems biology. In the first two research chapters, I demonstrate that the genetic code is extremely optimal (in the sense that it manages the effects of point mutations or mistranslations efficiently), more than an order of magnitude beyond what was previously thought. I further show that the structure of the genetic code implies that early proteins were probably only loosely defined. Both the nature of early proteins and the extreme optimality of the genetic code are interpreted in light of recent theory [1] as evidence that the evolution of the genetic code was driven by evolutionary dynamics that were dominated by horizontal gene transfer. I then explore the optimality of a proposed precursor to the genetic code. The results show that the precursor code has only limited optimality, which is interpreted as evidence that the precursor emerged prior to translation, or else never existed. In the next part of the dissertation, I introduce a many-body formalism for reaction-diffusion systems described at the mesoscopic scale with master equations. I first apply this formalism to spatially-extended predator-prey ecosystems, resulting in the prediction that many-body correlations and fluctuations drive population cycles in time, called quasicycles. Most of these results were previously known, but were derived using the system size expansion [2, 3]. I next apply the analytical techniques developed in the study of quasi-cycles to a simple model of Turing patterns in a predator-prey ecosystem. This analysis shows that fluctuations drive the formation of a new kind of spatiotemporal pattern formation that I name "quasi-patterns." These quasi-patterns exist over a much larger range of physically accessible parameters than the patterns predicted in mean field theory and therefore account for the apparent observations in ecology of patterns in regimes where Turing patterns do not occur. I further show that quasi-patterns have statistical properties that allow them to be distinguished empirically from mean field Turing patterns. I next analyze a model of visual cortex in the brain that has striking similarities to the activator-inhibitor model of ecosystem quasi-pattern formation. Through analysis of the resulting phase diagram, I show that the architecture of the neural network in the visual cortex is configured to make the visual cortex robust to unwanted internally generated spatial structure that interferes with normal visual function. I also predict that some geometric visual hallucinations are quasi-patterns and that the visual cortex supports a new phase of spatially scale invariant behavior present far from criticality. In the final chapter, I explore the effects of fluctuations on cycles in systems biology, specifically the pervasive phenomenon of circadian rhythms. By exploring the behavior of a generic stochastic model of circadian rhythms, I show that the circadian rhythm circuit exploits leaky mRNA production to safeguard the cycle from failure. I also show that this safeguard mechanism is highly robust to changes in the rate of leaky mRNA production. Finally, I explore the failure of the deterministic model in two different contexts, one where the deterministic model predicts cycles where they do not exist, and another context in which cycles are not predicted by the deterministic model.

Recent fertility trends in industrialized countries: toward a fluctuating or a stable pattern?

PubMed

Day, L H

1995-09-01

The conclusion of this analysis of fertility trends in industrialized countries is that future trends will be evident from accurate data and the inclusion of causal factors such as religion, ethnicity, migration status, marital status, employment status, neighborhood residence, or housing type. Period fertility measures are considered to be unreliable but useful as indicators of potential future changes in fertility. The expectation is that developed countries with low birth rates will have greater fluctuations than trends. Current patterns of fertility in developed countries are thought to have occurred due to substantial control over both the number and the timing of fertility. Patterns in the recent past have reflected further decline, an end to decline and a continued increase, or fluctuation. The most widespread pattern is continued increase following a period of low fertility. This pattern is in evidence in almost every country of northern and western Europe, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand. Countries with continued declines include Japan and eastern and southern European countries, which were the last to experience declines to replacement levels. Countries with fluctuating patterns include Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland. Countries with greater fluctuations include Belgium, Iceland, the former West Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland. The argument is made to not count these patterns as fluctuations due to 1) the similarity in magnitude, timing, and direction; 2) the small changes after the low was reached; and 3) their appearance everywhere at the same time. Stability of rates in the future appears to be a reasonable prospect due to the greater openness about human sexuality and the wider roles for women. Changes have occurred in attitudes about family size in the direction of smaller families, and the range in family size has narrowed considerably. Potential increases may occur due to a new emphasis on family and parenthood, the diminished impact of divorce on childbearing, and greater emotional value placed on children, potential dissatisfaction among women in the work force, and loss of interest in acquisition of consumer items and satiety of human wants.

Population genetic structure and phylogeographical pattern of rice grasshopper, Oxya hyla intricata, across Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Li, Tao; Zhang, Min; Qu, Yanhua; Ren, Zhumei; Zhang, Jianzhen; Guo, Yaping; Heong, K L; Villareal, Bong; Zhong, Yang; Ma, Enbo

2011-04-01

The rice grasshopper, Oxya hyla intricata, is a rice pest in Southeast Asia. In this study, population genetic diversity and structure of this Oxya species was examined using both DNA sequences and AFLP technology. The samples of 12 populations were collected from four Southeast Asian countries, among which 175 individuals were analysed using mitochondrial DNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) sequences, and 232 individuals were examined using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) to test whether the phylogeographical pattern and population genetics of this species are related to past geological events and/or climatic oscillations. No obvious trend of genetic diversity was found along a latitude/longitude gradient among different geographical groups. Phylogenetic analysis indicated three deep monophyletic clades that approximately correspond to three geographical regions separated by high mountains and a deep strait, and TCS analysis also revealed three disconnected networks, suggesting that spatial and temporal separations by vicariance, which were also supported by AMOVA as a source of the molecular variance presented among groups. Gene flow analysis showed that there had been frequent historical gene flow among local populations in different regions, but the networks exhibited no shared haplotype among populations. In conclusion, the past geological events and climatic fluctuations are the most important factor on the phylogeographical structure and genetic patterns of O. hyla intricata in Southeast Asia. Habitat, vegetation, and anthropogenic effect may also contribute to gene flow and introgression of this species. Moreover, temperature, abundant rainfall and a diversity of graminaceous species are beneficial for the migration of O. hyla intricata. High haplotype diversity, deep phylogenetic division, negative Fu's F (s) values and unimodal and multimodal distribution shapes all suggest a complicated demographic expansion pattern of these O. hyla intricata populations, which might have been caused by climatic oscillations during glacial periods in the Quaternary.

Spatial Organization In Europe of Decadal and Interdecadal Fluctuations In Annual Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucero, O. A.; Rodriguez, N. C.

In this research the spatial patterns of decadal and bidecadal fluctuations in annual rainfall in Europe are identified. Filtering of time series of anomaly of annual rainfall is carried out using the Morlet wavelet technique. Reconstruction is achieved by sum- ming the contributions from bands of wavelet timescales; the decadal band and the bidecadal band are composed of contributions from the band of (10- to 17-year] and (17- to 27- year] timescales respectively. Results indicate that 1) the spatial organi- zation of decadal and bidecadal components of annual rainfall are standing wave-like organized patterns. Three standing decadal fluctuations zonally aligned formed the spatial pattern from 1900 until 1931; thereafter the pattern changed into a NW-SE orientation. The decadal band shows an average 12-year period. 2) The spatial orga- nization of bidecadal component was composed of three standing fluctuations since 1903 to 1986. After 1987 two standing bidecadal fluctuations were located on Europe. The orientation of bidecadal fluctuations changed during the period under study. Until 1913 the spatial pattern of the bidecadal component was zonally aligned. Since 1913 until 1986 the three bidecadal fluctuations composing the spatial pattern were aligned SW U NE; starting 1987 the spatial pattern is composed of two standing fluctuations zonally aligned. The bidecadal spatial pattern shows an average period of 20- to 22- year length. 3) At decadal and bidecadal timescales, the first principal component of the spatial field of anomaly of annual rainfall and the NAO index are connected. The upper positive third (lower negative third) of values of first principal component are indicative of extensive area with positive (negative) anomaly of annual rainfall. 4) At decadal timescale the relative phase between the first PC and the NAO index changes through the period under study; these changes define three regimes: 1) Dur- ing the regime covering the period 1900 (start of period under study) to about 1945, at the time of peak values of decadal NAO-index it takes place a transition between extremes (a neutral state) of the decadal rainfall spatial pattern (first PC takes small absolute values). Besides, for positive (negative) peak value of NAO index the spatial pattern of annual rainfall is evolving toward an area of predominantly positive (nega- tive) anomaly. 2) The second regime starts about 1946 and reaches up to early 1980s. At the time of negative (positive) peak of decadal NAO there is a prevailing spatial pattern of positive (negative) anomaly of decadal rainfall. 3) The third regime starts 1 about late 1970s and reaches to the end of the period under study (in 1996). There is a change of relative phase within this period in late 1980s. In this regime a spatial pattern of prevailing positive or negative anomaly of decadal rainfall takes place dur- ing values of decadal NAO close to zero. 5) At bidecadal timescale the relative phase between the first PC and the NAO index remains almost constant through the period under study. The first PC of the transformed bidecadal component of annual rainfall anomaly attains its positive (negative) peak about three years before the bidecadal component of NAO reaches its negative (positive) peak. 2

Patterns of Morning and Evening Fatigue Among Adults with HIV/AIDS

PubMed Central

Lerdal, Anners; Gay, Caryl L.; Aouizerat, Bradley E.; Portillo, Carmen J.; Lee, Kathryn A.

2011-01-01

Aims and objectives Describe patterns of morning and evening fatigue in adults with HIV and examine their relationship to demographic and clinical factors and other symptoms. Background Most studies of HIV-related fatigue assess average levels of fatigue and do not address its diurnal fluctuations. Patterns of fatigue over the course of the day may have important implications for assessment and treatment. Design A cross-sectional, correlational design was used with six repeated measures over 72 hours. Method A convenience sample of 318 HIV-infected adults was recruited in San Francisco. Socio-demographic, clinical and symptom data were collected with questionnaires. CD4+ T-cell count and viral load were obtained from medical records. Participants completed a four-item version of the Lee Fatigue Scale each morning and evening for three consecutive days. Participants were grouped based on their diurnal pattern of fatigue (high evening only, high morning only, high morning and evening and low morning and evening). Group comparisons and logistic regression were used to determine the unique predictors of each fatigue pattern. Results The high evening fatigue pattern was associated with anxiety and the high morning pattern was associated with anxiety and depression. The morning fatigue pattern showed very little fluctuation between morning and evening, the evening pattern showed the largest fluctuation. The high morning and evening pattern was associated with anxiety, depression and sleep disturbance and this group reported the most fatigue-related distress and interference in functioning. Conclusions These results provide initial evidence for the importance of assessing the patient’s daily pattern of fatigue fluctuation, as different patterns were associated with different symptom experiences and perhaps different etiologies. Relevance to clinical practice Different fatigue patterns may benefit from tailored intervention strategies. Management of depressive symptoms could be tested in patients who experience high levels of morning fatigue. PMID:21752119

Population Fluctuation Promotes Cooperation in Networks

PubMed Central

Miller, Steve; Knowles, Joshua

2015-01-01

We consider the problem of explaining the emergence and evolution of cooperation in dynamic network-structured populations. Building on seminal work by Poncela et al., which shows how cooperation (in one-shot prisoner’s dilemma) is supported in growing populations by an evolutionary preferential attachment (EPA) model, we investigate the effect of fluctuations in the population size. We find that a fluctuating model – based on repeated population growth and truncation – is more robust than Poncela et al.’s in that cooperation flourishes for a wider variety of initial conditions. In terms of both the temptation to defect, and the types of strategies present in the founder network, the fluctuating population is found to lead more securely to cooperation. Further, we find that this model will also support the emergence of cooperation from pre-existing non-cooperative random networks. This model, like Poncela et al.’s, does not require agents to have memory, recognition of other agents, or other cognitive abilities, and so may suggest a more general explanation of the emergence of cooperation in early evolutionary transitions, than mechanisms such as kin selection, direct and indirect reciprocity. PMID:26061705

Middle Stone Age bedding construction and settlement patterns at Sibudu, South Africa.

PubMed

Wadley, Lyn; Sievers, Christine; Bamford, Marion; Goldberg, Paul; Berna, Francesco; Miller, Christopher

2011-12-09

The Middle Stone Age (MSA) is associated with early behavioral innovations, expansions of modern humans within and out of Africa, and occasional population bottlenecks. Several innovations in the MSA are seen in an archaeological sequence in the rock shelter Sibudu (South Africa). At ~77,000 years ago, people constructed plant bedding from sedges and other monocotyledons topped with aromatic leaves containing insecticidal and larvicidal chemicals. Beginning at ~73,000 years ago, bedding was burned, presumably for site maintenance. By ~58,000 years ago, bedding construction, burning, and other forms of site use and maintenance intensified, suggesting that settlement strategies changed. Behavioral differences between ~77,000 and 58,000 years ago may coincide with population fluctuations in Africa.

Faunal isotope records reveal trophic and nutrient dynamics in twentieth century Yellowstone grasslands.

PubMed

Fox-Dobbs, Kena; Nelson, Abigail A; Koch, Paul L; Leonard, Jennifer A

2012-10-23

Population sizes and movement patterns of ungulate grazers and their predators have fluctuated dramatically over the past few centuries, largely owing to overharvesting, land-use change and historic management. We used δ(13)C and δ(15)N values measured from bone collagen of historic and recent gray wolves and their potential primary prey from Yellowstone National Park to gain insight into the trophic dynamics and nutrient conditions of historic and modern grasslands. The diet of reintroduced wolves closely parallels that of the historic population. We suggest that a significant shift in faunal δ(15)N values over the past century reflects impacts of anthropogenic environmental changes on grassland ecosystems, including grazer-mediated shifts in grassland nitrogen cycle processes.

Faunal isotope records reveal trophic and nutrient dynamics in twentieth century Yellowstone grasslands

PubMed Central

Fox-Dobbs, Kena; Nelson, Abigail A.; Koch, Paul L.; Leonard, Jennifer A.

2012-01-01

Population sizes and movement patterns of ungulate grazers and their predators have fluctuated dramatically over the past few centuries, largely owing to overharvesting, land-use change and historic management. We used δ13C and δ15N values measured from bone collagen of historic and recent gray wolves and their potential primary prey from Yellowstone National Park to gain insight into the trophic dynamics and nutrient conditions of historic and modern grasslands. The diet of reintroduced wolves closely parallels that of the historic population. We suggest that a significant shift in faunal δ15N values over the past century reflects impacts of anthropogenic environmental changes on grassland ecosystems, including grazer-mediated shifts in grassland nitrogen cycle processes. PMID:22675135

Fluctuations of hi-hat timing and dynamics in a virtuoso drum track of a popular music recording.

PubMed

Räsänen, Esa; Pulkkinen, Otto; Virtanen, Tuomas; Zollner, Manfred; Hennig, Holger

2015-01-01

Long-range correlated temporal fluctuations in the beats of musical rhythms are an inevitable consequence of human action. According to recent studies, such fluctuations also lead to a favored listening experience. The scaling laws of amplitude variations in rhythms, however, are widely unknown. Here we use highly sensitive onset detection and time series analysis to study the amplitude and temporal fluctuations of Jeff Porcaro's one-handed hi-hat pattern in "I Keep Forgettin'"-one of the most renowned 16th note patterns in modern drumming. We show that fluctuations of hi-hat amplitudes and interbeat intervals (times between hits) have clear long-range correlations and short-range anticorrelations separated by a characteristic time scale. In addition, we detect subtle features in Porcaro's drumming such as small drifts in the 16th note pulse and non-trivial periodic two-bar patterns in both hi-hat amplitudes and intervals. Through this investigation we introduce a step towards statistical studies of the 20th and 21st century music recordings in the framework of complex systems. Our analysis has direct applications to the development of drum machines and to drumming pedagogy.

Molecular ecology of zebra mussel invasions.

PubMed

May, Gemma E; Gelembiuk, Gregory W; Panov, Vadim E; Orlova, Marina I; Lee, Carol Eunmi

2006-04-01

The invasion of the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, into North American waters has resulted in profound ecological disturbances and large monetary losses. This study examined the invasion history and patterns of genetic diversity among endemic and invading populations of zebra mussels using DNA sequences from the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI) gene. Patterns of haplotype frequency indicate that all invasive populations of zebra mussels from North America and Europe originated from the Ponto-Caspian Sea region. The distribution of haplotypes was consistent with invasive populations arising from the Black Sea drainage, but could not exclude the possibility of an origin from the Caspian Sea drainage. Similar haplotype frequencies among North American populations of D. polymorpha suggest colonization by a single founding population. There was no evidence of invasive populations arising from tectonic lakes in Turkey, while lakes in Greece and Macedonia contained only Dreissena stankovici. Populations in Turkey might be members of a sibling species complex of D. polymorpha. Ponto-Caspian derived populations of D. polymorpha (theta = 0.0011) and Dreissena bugensis (one haplotype) exhibited low levels of genetic diversity at the COI gene, perhaps as a result of repeated population bottlenecks. In contrast, geographically isolated tectonic lake populations exhibited relatively high levels of genetic diversity (theta = 0.0032 to 0.0134). It is possible that the fluctuating environment of the Ponto-Caspian basin facilitated the colonizing habit of invasive populations of D. polymorpha and D. bugensis. Our findings were concordant with the general trend of destructive freshwater invaders in the Great Lakes arising from the Ponto-Caspian Sea basin.

Conserving genomic variability in large mammals: Effect of population fluctuations and variance in male reproductive success on variability in Yellowstone bison

Treesearch

Andres Perez-Figueroa; Rick L. Wallen; Tiago Antao; Jason A. Coombs; Michael K. Schwartz; P. J. White; Gordon Luikart

2012-01-01

Loss of genetic variation through genetic drift can reduce population viability. However, relatively little is known about loss of variation caused by the combination of fluctuating population size and variance in reproductive success in age structured populations. We built an individual-based computer simulation model to examine how actual culling and hunting...

Infection patterns of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.) by two helminth species with contrasting life styles.

PubMed

Akoll, Peter; Konecny, Robert; Mwanja, Wilson W; Schiemer, Fritz

2012-04-01

The larval stages of Bolbophorus sp. (digenean) and Amirthalingamia macracantha (cestode) are frequently reported in Oreochromis niloticus in Uganda. Little, however, is known about their infection patterns. This study examined the influence of habitat type, host size, and sex and weather patterns on the parasite populations in Uganda. A total of 650 fish were collected between January and November 2008 from a reservoir, cages, fishponds and a stream. The prevalence and intensity of A. macracantha and the prevalence of Bolbophorus sp. differed across the water bodies reflecting the effect of habitat characteristics on parasite transmission. Host sex did not significantly influence the infection patterns, although female fish were slightly more parasitized than male and sexually undifferentiated individuals. The fish size was positively correlated with helminth infections demonstrating accumulation and prolonged exposure of larger (older) fish to the parasites. The metacercariae population did not vary significantly across months, while monthly A. macracantha infection fluctuated markedly. With regard to rain seasons, higher prevalence and intensity of A. macracantha were recorded in wet season. For Bolbophorus sp., only the prevalence varied with seasons, with higher prevalence recorded in the dry season than in wet season. Generally, Bolbophorus sp. responded weakly to changes in water body, host sex and size and weather patterns. Rainfall appears to be an essential cue for coracidia hatching.

Comparative phylogeography in the Atlantic forest and Brazilian savannas: pleistocene fluctuations and dispersal shape spatial patterns in two bumblebees.

PubMed

Françoso, Elaine; Zuntini, Alexandre Rizzo; Carnaval, Ana Carolina; Arias, Maria Cristina

2016-12-07

Bombus morio and B. pauloensis are sympatric widespread bumblebee species that occupy two major Brazilian biomes, the Atlantic forest and the savannas of the Cerrado. Differences in dispersion capacity, which is greater in B. morio, likely influence their phylogeographic patterns. This study asks which processes best explain the patterns of genetic variation observed in B. morio and B. pauloensis, shedding light on the phenomena that shaped the range of local populations and the spatial distribution of intra-specific lineages. Results suggest that Pleistocene climatic oscillations directly influenced the population structure of both species. Correlative species distribution models predict that the warmer conditions of the Last Interglacial contributed to population contraction, while demographic expansion happened during the Last Glacial Maximum. These results are consistent with physiological data suggesting that bumblebees are well adapted to colder conditions. Intra-specific mitochondrial genealogies are not congruent between the two species, which may be explained by their documented differences in dispersal ability. While populations of the high-dispersal B. morio are morphologically and genetically homogeneous across the species range, B. pauloensis encompasses multiple (three) mitochondrial lineages, and show clear genetic, geographic, and morphological differences. Because the lineages of B. pauloensis are currently exposed to distinct climatic conditions (and elevations), parapatric diversification may occur within this taxon. The eastern portion of the state of São Paulo, the most urbanized area in Brazil, represents the center of genetic diversity for B. pauloensis.

Copper in indigenous and transplanted zebra mussels in relation to changing water concentrations and body weight

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mersch, J.; Wagner, P.; Pihan, J.C.

Zebra mussels, Dreissena polymorpha, were collected monthly from a copper-contaminated reservoir over a period of nearly 3 years. Copper concentrations in the organisms showed marked fluctuations reflecting changes in the water contamination. Bioconcentration patterns were influenced by the specific capacity of this sentinel organism to biologically integrate the continuously evolving water pollution; the sampling pattern, which inevitably introduced a certain subjectivity into monitoring results; and weight changes in the animals within the yearly cycle. Consequently, the successive monthly indications obtained with the zebra mussels provided a current biological assessment of a complex dynamic contamination situation. In a second experiment, cagedmore » mussels from three different populations were transferred for 3 months into the reservoir and sampled on six occasions. Mortality rates, attachment capacity, and a condition index revealed no substantial fitness disturbances in the transplanted organisms. Differences in dry weight throughout the experiment were attributable to the initial characteristics of each population. The influence of body mass on monitoring results was eliminated by replacing copper concentrations ({micro}g/g dry weight) with copper burdens ({micro}g/specimen). In terms of copper burdens, the three transplanted populations exhibited very similar metal patterns. Moderate quantitative differences between introduced and indigenous populations were interpreted as the result of physiological adaptation of the indigenous mussels to their contaminated environment. This study showed that the transfer technique with D. polymorpha is a useful tool for active biomonitoring programs.« less

Consumption, supply and transport: self-organization without direct communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, J. O.

1996-01-01

Swimming bacteria of the species Bacillus subtilis require and consume oxygen. In static liquid cultures the cells' swimming behaviour leads them to accumulate up oxygen concentration gradients generated by consumption and supply. Since the density of bacterial cells exceeds that of the fluid in which they live, fluid regions where cells have accumulated are denser than depleted regions. These density variations cause convection. The fluid motion is dynamically maintained by the swimming of the cells toward regions of attraction: the air-fluid interface and the fluctuating advecting attractors, gradients of oxygen concentration that are embedded in the convecting fluid. Because of the fluid dynamical conservation laws, these complex physical and biological factors generate patterns ordered over distances > 10000 bacterial cell diameters. The convection enhances long-range transport and mixing of oxygen, cells and extracellular products by orders of magnitude. Thus, through the interplay of physical and biological factors, a population of undifferentiated selfish cells creates functional dynamic patterns. Populations of bacteria that have organised themselves into regularly patterned regions of vigorous convection and varying cell concentration interact with their environment as if they were one purposeful, coherent multicellular individual. The mathematical and experimental ingredients of these remarkable phenomena are presented here.

The effect of environmental uncertainty on morphological design and fluid balance in Sarracenia purpurea L.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel

1981-03-01

To explore principles of organismic design in fluctuating environments, morphological design of the leaf of the pitcher-plant, Sarracenia purpurea, was studied for a population in northern Michigan. The design criterion focused upon the leaf shape and minimum size which effectively avoids leaf desiccation (complete loss of fluid from the leaf cavity) in the face of fluctuating rainfall and meteorological conditions. Bowl- and pitcher-shaped leaves were considered. Simulations show that the pitcher geometry experiences less frequent desiccation than bowls of the same size. Desiccation frequency is inversely related to leaf size; the size distribution of pitcher leaves in the field shows that the majority of pitchers desiccate only 1-3 times per season on average, while smaller pitchers may average up to 8 times per season. A linear filter model of an organism in a fluctuating environment is presented, in which the organism selectively filters the temporal patterns of environmental input. General measures of rainfall predictability based upon information theory and spectral analysis are consistent with the model of a pitcher leaf as a low-pass (frequency) filter which avoids desiccation by eliminating high-frequency rainfall variability.

Traction force and tension fluctuations in growing axons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbach, Jeffrey; Polackwich, Jamie; Koch, Daniel; McAllister, Ryan; Geller, Herbert

Actively generated mechanical forces play a central role in axon growth and guidance during nervous system development. We describe the dynamics of traction stresses from growth cones of actively advancing axons from postnatal rat DRG neurons. By tracking the movement of the growth cone and analyzing the traction stresses in a co-moving reference frame, we show that there is a clear and consistent average stress field underlying the complex spatial stresses present at any one time. The average stress field has strong maxima on the sides of the growth cone, directed inward toward the growth cone neck. This pattern represents a Contractile stress contained within the growth cone, and a net force that is balanced by the axon tension. In addition, using high time-resolution measurements, we show that the stress field is composed of fluctuating local stress peaks, with a population of peaks whose lifetime distribution follows an exponential decay, and a small number of very long-lived peaks. We also find that the tension appears to vary randomly over short time scales, roughly consistent with the lifetime of the stress peaks, suggesting that the tension fluctuations originate from stochastic adhesion dynamics.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Gene flow during glacial habitat shifts facilitates character displacement in a Neotropical flycatcher radiation.

PubMed

Chattopadhyay, Balaji; Garg, Kritika M; Gwee, Chyi Yin; Edwards, Scott V; Rheindt, Frank E

2017-09-01

Pleistocene climatic fluctuations are known to be an engine of biotic diversification at higher latitudes, but their impact on highly diverse tropical areas such as the Andes remains less well-documented. Specifically, while periods of global cooling may have led to fragmentation and differentiation at colder latitudes, they may - at the same time - have led to connectivity among insular patches of montane tropical habitat with unknown consequences on diversification. In the present study we utilized ~5.5 kb of DNA sequence data from eight nuclear loci and one mitochondrial gene alongside diagnostic morphological and bioacoustic markers to test the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on diversification in a complex of Andean tyrant-flycatchers of the genus Elaenia. Population genetic and phylogenetic approaches coupled with coalescent simulations demonstrated disparate levels of gene flow between the taxon chilensis and two parapatric Elaenia taxa predominantly during the last glacial period but not thereafter, possibly on account of downward shifts of montane forest habitat linking the populations of adjacent ridges. Additionally, morphological and bioacoustic analyses revealed a distinct pattern of character displacement in coloration and vocal traits between the two sympatric taxa albiceps and pallatangae, which were characterized by a lack of gene flow. Our study demonstrates that global periods of cooling are likely to have facilitated gene flow among Andean montane Elaenia flycatchers that are more isolated from one another during warm interglacial periods such as the present era. We also identify a hitherto overlooked case of plumage and vocal character displacement, underpinning the complexities of gene flow patterns caused by Pleistocene climate change across the Andes.

Population Structure of mtDNA Variation due to Pleistocene Fluctuations in the South American Maned Wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus, Illiger, 1815): Management Units for Conservation.

PubMed

González, Susana; Cosse, Mariana; Franco, María del Rosario; Emmons, Louise; Vynne, Carly; Duarte, José Maurício Barbanti; Beccacesi, Marcelo D; Maldonado, Jesús E

2015-01-01

The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) is one of the largest South American canids, and conservation across this charismatic carnivore's large range is presently hampered by a lack of knowledge about possible natural subdivisions which could influence the population's viability. To elucidate the phylogeographic patterns and demographic history of the species, we used 2 mtDNA markers (D-loop and cytochrome b) from 87 individuals collected throughout their range, in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Uruguay. We found moderate levels of haplotype and nucleotide diversity, and the 14 D-loop haplotypes were closely related. Genetic structure results revealed 4 groups, and when coupled with model inferences from a coalescent analysis, suggested that maned wolves have undergone demographic fluctuations due to changes in climate and habitat during the Pleistocene glaciation period approximately 24000 years before present (YBP). This genetic signature points to an event that occurred within the timing estimated for the start of the contraction of the Cerrado around 50000 YBP. Our results reveal a genetic signature of population size expansion followed by contraction during Pleistocene interglaciations, which had similar impacts on other South American mammals. The 4 groups should for now be considered management units, within which future monitoring efforts should be conducted independently. © The American Genetic Association 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Density-Dependent Prevalence of Francisella tularensis in Fluctuating Vole Populations, Northwestern Spain

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Pastor, Ruth; Escudero, Raquel; Vidal, Dolors; Mougeot, François; Arroyo, Beatriz; Lambin, Xavier; Vila-Coro, Ave Maria; Rodríguez-Moreno, Isabel; Anda, Pedro

2017-01-01

Tularemia in humans in northwestern Spain is associated with increases in vole populations. Prevalence of infection with Francisella tularensis in common voles increased to 33% during a vole population fluctuation. This finding confirms that voles are spillover agents for zoonotic outbreaks. Ecologic interactions associated with tularemia prevention should be considered. PMID:28726608

Effects of temporal fluctuation in population processes of intertidal Lanice conchilega (Pallas, 1766) aggregations on its ecosystem engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, Renata M. S.; Vanaverbeke, Jan; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Guarini, Jean-Marc; Vincx, Magda; Van Colen, Carl

2017-03-01

Ecosystem engineers contribute to ecosystem functioning by regulating key environmental attributes, such as habitat availability and sediment biogeochemistry. While autogenic engineers can increase habitat complexity passively and provide physical protection to other species, allogenic engineers can regulate sediment oxygenation and biogeochemistry through bioturbation and/or bioirrigation. Their effects rely on the physical attributes of the engineer and/or its biogenic constructs, such as abundance and/or size. The present study focused on tube aggregations of a sessile, tube-building polychaete that engineers marine sediments, Lanice conchilega. Its tube aggregations modulate water flow by dissipating energy, influencing sedimentary processes and increasing particle retention. These effects can be influenced by temporal fluctuations in population demographic processes. Presently, we investigated the relationship between population processes and ecosystem engineering through an in-situ survey (1.5 years) of L. conchilega aggregations at the sandy beach of Boulogne-sur-Mer (France). We (1) evaluated temporal patterns in population structure, and (2) investigated how these are related to the ecosystem engineering of L. conchilega on marine sediments. During our survey, we assessed tube density, demographic structure, and sediment properties (surficial chl-a, EPS, TOM, median and mode grain size, sorting, and mud and water content) on a monthly basis for 12 intertidal aggregations. We found that the population was mainly composed by short-lived (6-10 months), small-medium individuals. Mass mortality severely reduced population density during winter. However the population persisted, likely due to recruits from other populations, which are associated to short- and long-term population dynamics. Two periods of recruitment were identified: spring/summer and autumn. Population density was highest during the spring recruitment and significantly affected several environmental properties (i.e. EPS, TOM, mode grain size, mud and water content), suggesting that demographic processes may be responsible for periods of pronounced ecosystem engineering with densities of approx. 30 000 ind·m-2.

Does the terrestrial phenology concept apply in water?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winder, M.; Cloern, J. E.

2009-12-01

Terrestrial plants have a life history that has evolved to a circannual rhythm in concert with the seasonal climate system and overall biomass follows a regular cycle of growth and senescence having a period of 1 year. Consistency in phase and amplitude render terrestrial plant activity an effective tool to observe shifts in the seasonal life cycle in response to climate change. The other half of Earth’s primary production occurs in aquatic systems, dominated by unicellular algae having the capacity to divide daily under optimal conditions and population changes can, in principle, occur any time within a year. Given that periods of life cycles differ on land compared to aquatic systems, it can be expected that patterns of seasonal variability might differ between terrestrial and pelagic plants. We compiled 121 phytoplankton biomass time series with a median length of 16 years from estuarine-coastal and lake ecosystems in the temperate and subtropical zone and address three questions: Do aquatic pelagic plants follow the canonical seasonal pattern of terrestrial plants? What are the dominant periodicities of aquatic primary producers? How recurrent are cyclical patterns from year to year? We applied wavelet analysis to extract the phase and amplitude of these long-term phytoplankton time series. The data revealed that in about 45 % of the aquatic sites an annual cycle of 12-month periodicity was strongest expressed, corresponding to one peak per year. In about 20 % the 6-month periodicity dominated, characteristic of two peaks within a year, and about 35 % showed a pattern best attributed to the 2-5 month band periodicity and for 2 % no consistent periodicity emerged. The reoccurrence of the seasonal fluctuations varied however greatly from year to year, ranging from more predictable patterns to irregular patterns in other sites. These findings suggest that seasonal activity of chlorophyll a can be unpredictable and variable. We propose drivers that give rise to the broad pattern of seasonal phytoplankton fluctuations and discuss advantages and limitations of using phytoplankton phenology as indicators of climate change.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan.

PubMed

Crema, Enrico R; Habu, Junko; Kobayashi, Kenichi; Madella, Marco

2016-01-01

Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD) of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido) and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes.

Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan

PubMed Central

Habu, Junko; Kobayashi, Kenichi; Madella, Marco

2016-01-01

Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD) of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido) and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes. PMID:27128032

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

Fluctuations in wasting in vulnerable child populations in the Greater Horn of Africa.

PubMed

Chotard, Sophie; Mason, John B; Oliphant, Nicholas P; Mebrahtu, Saba; Hailey, Peter

2010-09-01

Malnutrition in preschool children, usually measured as wasting, is widely used to assess possible needs for emergency humanitarian interventions in areas vulnerable to drought, displacement, and related causes of food insecurity. The extent of fluctuations in wasting by season, year-to-year, and differential effects by livelihood group, need to be better established as a basis for interpretation together with ways of presenting large numbers of survey results to facilitate interpretation. To estimate levels of and fluctuations in wasting prevalences in children from surveys conducted in arid and semiarid areas of the Greater Horn of Africa according to livelihood (pastoral, agricultural, mixed, migrant), season or month, and year from 2000 to 2006. Results from around 900 area-level nutrition surveys (typical sample size, about 900 children) were compiled and analyzed. These surveys were carried out largely by nongovernmental organizations, coordinated by UNICEF, in vulnerable areas of Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Southern Sudan, and Uganda. Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) data were used for comparison. Data were taken from measurements of children 0 to 5 years of age (or less than 110 cm in height). Among pastoral child populations, the average prevalence of wasting (< -2 SD weight-for-height) was about 17%, 6-7 percentage points higher than the rates among agricultural populations or populations with mixed livelihoods. Fluctuations in wasting were greater among pastoralists during years of drought, with prevalences rising to 25% or higher; prevalences among agricultural populations seldom exceeded 15%. This difference may be related to very different growth patterns (assessed from DHS and UNICEF/MICS surveys), whereby pastoral children typically grow up thinner but taller than children of agriculturalists. Wasting peaks are seen in the first half of the year, usually during the dry or hunger season. In average years, the seasonal increase is about 5 percentage points. Internally displaced people and urban migrants have somewhat higher prevalence rates of wasting. Year-to-year differences are the largest, loosely correlated with drought at the national level but subject to local variations. Tracking changes in wasting prevalence over time at the area level--e.g., with time-series graphical presentations--facilitates interpretation of survey results obtained at any given time. Roughly, wasting prevalences exceeding 25% in pastoralists and 15% in agriculturalists (taking account of timing) indicate unusual malnutrition levels. Different populations should be judged by population-specific criteria, and invariant prevalence cutoff points avoided; interpretation rules are suggested. Survey estimates of wasting, when seen in the context of historical values and viewed as specific to different livelihood groups, can provide useful timely warning of the need for intervention to mitigate developing nutritional crises.

[Effects of water level fluctuation on the inter- and intra-specific relationships between Wedelia trilobata and W. chinensis].

PubMed

Bu, Xiang Qi; Liu, Lin; Mu, Ya Nan; Guan, Yu Ting; Li, Hong Li; Yu, Fei Hai

2017-03-18

A controlled greenhouse experiment was designed with the invasive Wedelia trilobata and native W. chinensis. Three water level fluctuation treatments (no fluctuation, change pattern by 15 cm-0 cm-15 cm, change pattern by 0 cm-15 cm-0 cm) were crossed with five plant arrangement treatments (an individual invasive plant per pot, an individual native plant per pot, 6 invasive plants per pot, 6 native plants per pot, six plants per pot with three invasive and three native plants) to explore the effects of water level fluctuation on inter- and intra-specific relationships between W. trilobata and W. chinensis. The results showed that water level fluctuation decreased signifi-cantly the total biomass, stem biomass, leaf biomass, root biomass, stem length, number of nodes, number of leaves and leaf area of W. trilobata and W. chinensis. Meantime it had significant effects on the inter- and intra-specific competition between W. trilobata and W. chinensis. Water level fluctuation changed the inter- and intra-specific competition of W. trilobata. It indicated that W. trilobata was more sensitive to water level fluctuation with stronger adaptability.

Directionality theory and the evolution of body size.

PubMed

Demetrius, L

2000-12-07

Directionality theory, a dynamic theory of evolution that integrates population genetics with demography, is based on the concept of evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in a population. The main tenets of the theory are three principles relating the response to the ecological constraints a population experiences, with trends in entropy as the population evolves under mutation and natural selection. (i) Stationary size or fluctuations around a stationary size (bounded growth): a unidirectional increase in entropy; (ii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), large population size: a unidirectional decrease in entropy; and (iii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), small population size: random, non-directional change in entropy. We invoke these principles, together with an allometric relationship between entropy, and the morphometric variable body size, to provide evolutionary explanations of three empirical patterns pertaining to trends in body size, namely (i) Cope's rule, the tendency towards size increase within phyletic lineages; (ii) the island rule, which pertains to changes in body size that occur as species migrate from mainland populations to colonize island habitats; and (iii) Bergmann's rule, the tendency towards size increase with increasing latitude. The observation that these ecotypic patterns can be explained in terms of the directionality principles for entropy underscores the significance of evolutionary entropy as a unifying concept in forging a link between micro-evolution, the dynamics of gene frequency change, and macro-evolution, dynamic changes in morphometric variables.

Implications of climate change for the reproductive capacity and survival of New World silversides (family Atherinopsidae).

PubMed

Strüssmann, C A; Conover, D O; Somoza, G M; Miranda, L A

2010-11-01

The New World silversides (family Atherinopsidae) are found in marine, estuarine and inland waters of North, Central and South America, where they are ecologically important as forage fishes and sometimes economically important for commercial and recreational fisheries. This report reviews the knowledge of the reproductive attributes of temperate and subtropical atherinopsids in relation to temperature and discusses the potential effects of climate change on their reproduction and adaptive responses. Their reproductive cycles are primarily entrained by photoperiod with high temperature acting as a limiting factor. They are generally multiple spawners which release successive batches of eggs in spring, but some species can spawn also in autumn and even summer when temperatures do not increase excessively. The decoupling of temperature patterns and photoperiod with further global warming and associated asymmetric thermal fluctuations could lead to spawning at times or temperatures that are unsuitable for larval development and growth. Many members of this family show temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), where the phenotypic sex of an individual is determined partly or wholly by the temperature experienced during gonadal sex differentiation, and high-temperature induced germ cell degeneration and decreased fertility. The predicted short-term reproductive responses of atherinopsids to climate change therefore include acceleration, shortening or overall disruption of spawning activity, and also more subtle, but nonetheless equally population-threatening, dysfunctions such as highly skewed sex ratios and partial or total loss of fertility. In the case of species with TSD, asymmetric thermal fluctuations could also cause larvae to encounter temperatures lower than normal during early development and be feminized. Such dysfunctions have been documented already in natural populations but are confined so far to landlocked, inland water habitats, perhaps because they impose more severe thermal fluctuations and limitations to migration and dispersal. The severity and recurrence of these dysfunctions with further climate change will depend both on the magnitude, speed and pattern of change and on how much (or how fast) physiological and behavioural traits can evolve to match the new conditions imposed by the climate, which is largely unknown. In this regard, compelling evidence is shown that numerous traits, including the sex determination system, are capable of rapid evolution and could mitigate the negative effects of temperature increases on population viability in atherinopsids. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Distinct spatiotemporal activity in principal neurons of the mouse olfactory bulb in anesthetized and awake states

PubMed Central

Blauvelt, David G.; Sato, Tomokazu F.; Wienisch, Martin; Murthy, Venkatesh N.

2013-01-01

The acquisition of olfactory information and its early processing in mammals are modulated by brain states through sniffing behavior and neural feedback. We imaged the spatiotemporal pattern of odor-evoked activity in a population of output neurons (mitral/tufted cells, MTCs) in the olfactory bulb (OB) of head-restrained mice expressing a genetically-encoded calcium indicator. The temporal dynamics of MTC population activity were relatively simple in anesthetized animals, but were highly variable in awake animals. However, the apparently irregular activity in awake animals could be predicted well using sniff timing measured externally, or inferred through fluctuations in the global responses of MTC population even without explicit knowledge of sniff times. The overall spatial pattern of activity was conserved across states, but odor responses had a diffuse spatial component in anesthetized mice that was less prominent during wakefulness. Multi-photon microscopy indicated that MTC lateral dendrites were the likely source of spatially disperse responses in the anesthetized animal. Our data demonstrate that the temporal and spatial dynamics of MTCs can be significantly modulated by behavioral state, and that the ensemble activity of MTCs can provide information about sniff timing to downstream circuits to help decode odor responses. PMID:23543674

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

RAINIER: A simulation tool for distributions of excited nuclear states and cascade fluctuations

DOE PAGES

Kirsch, L. E.; Bernstein, L. A.

2018-03-04

In this paper, a new code has been developed named RAINIER that simulates the γ-ray decay of discrete and quasi-continuum nuclear levels for a user-specified range of energy, angular momentum, and parity including a realistic treatment of level spacing and transition width fluctuations. A similar program, DICEBOX, uses the Monte Carlo method to simulate level and width fluctuations but is restricted in its initial level population algorithm. On the other hand, modern reaction codes such as TALYS and EMPIRE populate a wide range of states in the residual nucleus prior to γ-ray decay, but do not go beyond the usemore » of deterministic functions and therefore neglect cascade fluctuations. This combination of capabilities allows RAINIER to be used to determine quasi-continuum properties through comparison with experimental data. Finally, several examples are given that demonstrate how cascade fluctuations influence experimental high-resolution γ-ray spectra from reactions that populate a wide range of initial states.« less

RAINIER: A simulation tool for distributions of excited nuclear states and cascade fluctuations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirsch, L. E.; Bernstein, L. A.

In this paper, a new code has been developed named RAINIER that simulates the γ-ray decay of discrete and quasi-continuum nuclear levels for a user-specified range of energy, angular momentum, and parity including a realistic treatment of level spacing and transition width fluctuations. A similar program, DICEBOX, uses the Monte Carlo method to simulate level and width fluctuations but is restricted in its initial level population algorithm. On the other hand, modern reaction codes such as TALYS and EMPIRE populate a wide range of states in the residual nucleus prior to γ-ray decay, but do not go beyond the usemore » of deterministic functions and therefore neglect cascade fluctuations. This combination of capabilities allows RAINIER to be used to determine quasi-continuum properties through comparison with experimental data. Finally, several examples are given that demonstrate how cascade fluctuations influence experimental high-resolution γ-ray spectra from reactions that populate a wide range of initial states.« less

Incidence and mortality of acute and chronic pancreatitis in the Netherlands: a nationwide record-linked cohort study for the years 1995-2005.

PubMed

Spanier, B W Marcel; Bruno, Marco J; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W

2013-05-28

To analyze trends in incidence and mortality of acute pancreatitis (AP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP) in the Netherlands and for international standard populations. A nationwide cohort is identified through record linkage of hospital data for AP and CP, accumulated from three nationwide Dutch registries: the hospital discharge register, the population register, and the death certificate register. Sex- and age-group specific incidence rates of AP and CP are defined for the period 2000-2005 and mortality rates of AP and CP for the period 1995-2005. Additionally, incidence and mortality rates over time are reported for Dutch and international (European and World Health Organization) standard populations. Incidence of AP per 100000 persons per year increased between 2000 and 2005 from 13.2 (95%CI: 12.6-13.8) to 14.7 (95%CI: 14.1-15.3). Incidence of AP for males increased from 13.8 (95%CI: 12.9-14.7) to 15.2 (95%CI: 14.3-16.1), for females from 12.7 (95%CI: 11.9-13.5) to 14.2 (95%CI: 13.4-15.1). Irregular patterns over time emerged for CP. Overall mean incidence per 100000 persons per year was 1.77, for males 2.16, and for females 1.4. Mortality for AP fluctuated during 1995-2005 between 6.9 and 11.7 per million persons per year and was almost similar for males and females. Concerning CP, mortality for males fluctuated between 1.1 (95%CI: 0.6-2.3) and 4.0 (95%CI: 2.8-5.8), for females between 0.7 (95%CI: 0.3-1.6) and 2.0 (95%CI: 1.2-3.2). Incidence and mortality of AP and CP increased markedly with age. Standardized rates were lowest for World Health Organization standard population. Incidence of AP steadily increased while incidence of CP fluctuated. Mortality for both AP and CP remained fairly stable. Patient burden and health care costs probably will increase because of an ageing Dutch population.

Antibiotic-induced population fluctuations and stochastic clearance of bacteria

PubMed Central

Le, Dai; Şimşek, Emrah; Chaudhry, Waqas

2018-01-01

Effective antibiotic use that minimizes treatment failures remains a challenge. A better understanding of how bacterial populations respond to antibiotics is necessary. Previous studies of large bacterial populations established the deterministic framework of pharmacodynamics. Here, characterizing the dynamics of population extinction, we demonstrated the stochastic nature of eradicating bacteria with antibiotics. Antibiotics known to kill bacteria (bactericidal) induced population fluctuations. Thus, at high antibiotic concentrations, the dynamics of bacterial clearance were heterogeneous. At low concentrations, clearance still occurred with a non-zero probability. These striking outcomes of population fluctuations were well captured by our probabilistic model. Our model further suggested a strategy to facilitate eradication by increasing extinction probability. We experimentally tested this prediction for antibiotic-susceptible and clinically-isolated resistant bacteria. This new knowledge exposes fundamental limits in our ability to predict bacterial eradication. Additionally, it demonstrates the potential of using antibiotic concentrations that were previously deemed inefficacious to eradicate bacteria. PMID:29508699

Detection of EEG-patterns associated with real and imaginary movements using detrended fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlov, Alexey N.; Runnova, Anastasiya E.; Maksimenko, Vladimir A.; Grishina, Daria S.; Hramov, Alexander E.

2018-02-01

Authentic recognition of specific patterns of electroencephalograms (EEGs) associated with real and imagi- nary movements is an important stage for the development of brain-computer interfaces. In experiments with untrained participants, the ability to detect the motor-related brain activity based on the multichannel EEG processing is demonstrated. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis, changes in the EEG patterns during the imagination of hand movements are reported. It is discussed how the ability to recognize brain activity related to motor executions depends on the electrode position.

Propagating waves can explain irregular neural dynamics.

PubMed

Keane, Adam; Gong, Pulin

2015-01-28

Cortical neurons in vivo fire quite irregularly. Previous studies about the origin of such irregular neural dynamics have given rise to two major models: a balanced excitation and inhibition model, and a model of highly synchronized synaptic inputs. To elucidate the network mechanisms underlying synchronized synaptic inputs and account for irregular neural dynamics, we investigate a spatially extended, conductance-based spiking neural network model. We show that propagating wave patterns with complex dynamics emerge from the network model. These waves sweep past neurons, to which they provide highly synchronized synaptic inputs. On the other hand, these patterns only emerge from the network with balanced excitation and inhibition; our model therefore reconciles the two major models of irregular neural dynamics. We further demonstrate that the collective dynamics of propagating wave patterns provides a mechanistic explanation for a range of irregular neural dynamics, including the variability of spike timing, slow firing rate fluctuations, and correlated membrane potential fluctuations. In addition, in our model, the distributions of synaptic conductance and membrane potential are non-Gaussian, consistent with recent experimental data obtained using whole-cell recordings. Our work therefore relates the propagating waves that have been widely observed in the brain to irregular neural dynamics. These results demonstrate that neural firing activity, although appearing highly disordered at the single-neuron level, can form dynamical coherent structures, such as propagating waves at the population level. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/351591-15$15.00/0.

Measuring and comparing structural fluctuation patterns in large protein datasets.

PubMed

Fuglebakk, Edvin; Echave, Julián; Reuter, Nathalie

2012-10-01

The function of a protein depends not only on its structure but also on its dynamics. This is at the basis of a large body of experimental and theoretical work on protein dynamics. Further insight into the dynamics-function relationship can be gained by studying the evolutionary divergence of protein motions. To investigate this, we need appropriate comparative dynamics methods. The most used dynamical similarity score is the correlation between the root mean square fluctuations (RMSF) of aligned residues. Despite its usefulness, RMSF is in general less evolutionarily conserved than the native structure. A fundamental issue is whether RMSF is not as conserved as structure because dynamics is less conserved or because RMSF is not the best property to use to study its conservation. We performed a systematic assessment of several scores that quantify the (dis)similarity between protein fluctuation patterns. We show that the best scores perform as well as or better than structural dissimilarity, as assessed by their consistency with the SCOP classification. We conclude that to uncover the full extent of the evolutionary conservation of protein fluctuation patterns, it is important to measure the directions of fluctuations and their correlations between sites. Nathalie.Reuter@mbi.uib.no Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics Online.

The impact of economic recession on maternal and infant mortality: lessons from history.

PubMed

Ensor, Tim; Cooper, Stephanie; Davidson, Lisa; Fitzmaurice, Ann; Graham, Wendy J

2010-11-24

The effect of the recent world recession on population health has featured heavily in recent international meetings. Maternal health is a particular concern given that many countries were already falling short of their MDG targets for 2015. We utilise 20th century time series data from 14 high and middle income countries to investigate associations between previous economic recession and boom periods on maternal and infant outcomes (1936 to 2005). A first difference logarithmic model is used to investigate the association between short run fluctuations in GDP per capita (individual incomes) and changes in health outcomes. Separate models are estimated for four separate time periods. The results suggest a modest but significant association between maternal and infant mortality and economic growth for early periods (1936 to 1965) but not more recent periods. Individual country data display markedly different patterns of response to economic changes. Japan and Canada were vulnerable to economic shocks in the post war period. In contrast, mortality rates in countries such as the UK and Italy and particularly the US appear little affected by economic fluctuations. The data presented suggest that recessions do have a negative association with maternal and infant outcomes particularly in earlier stages of a country's development although the effects vary widely across different systems. Almost all of the 20 least wealthy countries have suffered a reduction of 10% or more in GDP per capita in at least one of the last five decades. The challenge for today's policy makers is the design and implementation of mechanisms that protect vulnerable populations from the effects of fluctuating national income.

Exploring theoretical frameworks for the analysis of fertility fluctuations.

PubMed

Micheli, G A

1988-05-01

The Easterlin theory, popular during the 1970s, explained population fluctuations in terms of maximization of choice, based on the evaluation of previously acquired information. Fluctuations in procreational patterns were seen as responses to conflict between 2 consecutive generations in which the propensity to procreate is inversely related to cohort size. However, the number of demographic trends not directly explainable by the hypothesis imply that either the model must be extended over a longer time frame or that there has been a drastic change of regime, i.e., a basic change in popular attitudes which determine decision making behavior. 4 strategic principles underlie reproductive decisions: primary adaptation, economic utility, norm internalization, and identity reinforcement. The decision-making process is determined by the relative importance of these 4 principles. Primary adaptation implies inertia, i.e., nondecision. Economic utility implies the use of rational choice to maximize economic gain. Norm internalization implies conforming to the behavior of one's sociocultural peers as if it were one's own choice. Identity reinforcement implies that one decides to reproduce because procreation is a way of extending one's identity forward in time. The 2 active decision-making attitudes, economic rationality and identity reinforcement, are strategically both antagonistic and complementary. This polarity of behavior lends itself to analysis in terms of the predator-prey model, in which population is seen as the predator and resources as the prey. However, in applying the model, one must keep in mind that the real demographic picture is not static and that it is subject to deformation by external forces.

Reliability, synchrony and noise

PubMed Central

Ermentrout, G. Bard; Galán, Roberto F.; Urban, Nathaniel N.

2008-01-01

The brain is noisy. Neurons receive tens of thousands of highly fluctuating inputs and generate spike trains that appear highly irregular. Much of this activity is spontaneous—uncoupled to overt stimuli or motor outputs—leading to questions about the functional impact of this noise. Although noise is most often thought of as disrupting patterned activity and interfering with the encoding of stimuli, recent theoretical and experimental work has shown that noise can play a constructive role—leading to increased reliability or regularity of neuronal firing in single neurons and across populations. These results raise fundamental questions about how noise can influence neural function and computation. PMID:18603311

Fluctuation dynamics of exchange rates on Polish financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orłowski, A.; Struzik, Z. R.; Syczewska, E.; Załuska-Kotur, M. A.

2004-12-01

We show results of local fluctuation analysis, probability distributions, and fractional integration analysis for nominal exchange rates of the Polish zloty versus two foreign currencies (US dollar and German mark/euro). The results confirm the rapid change of the volatility pattern in August 1997. We compare the type of the fluctuation behavior before and after this date.

Characterizing the correlations between local phase fractions of gas-liquid two-phase flow with wire-mesh sensor.

PubMed

Tan, C; Liu, W L; Dong, F

2016-06-28

Understanding of flow patterns and their transitions is significant to uncover the flow mechanics of two-phase flow. The local phase distribution and its fluctuations contain rich information regarding the flow structures. A wire-mesh sensor (WMS) was used to study the local phase fluctuations of horizontal gas-liquid two-phase flow, which was verified through comparing the reconstructed three-dimensional flow structure with photographs taken during the experiments. Each crossing point of the WMS is treated as a node, so the measurement on each node is the phase fraction in this local area. An undirected and unweighted flow pattern network was established based on connections that are formed by cross-correlating the time series of each node under different flow patterns. The structure of the flow pattern network reveals the relationship of the phase fluctuations at each node during flow pattern transition, which is then quantified by introducing the topological index of the complex network. The proposed analysis method using the WMS not only provides three-dimensional visualizations of the gas-liquid two-phase flow, but is also a thorough analysis for the structure of flow patterns and the characteristics of flow pattern transition. This article is part of the themed issue 'Supersensing through industrial process tomography'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Characterizing the correlations between local phase fractions of gas–liquid two-phase flow with wire-mesh sensor

PubMed Central

Liu, W. L.; Dong, F.

2016-01-01

Understanding of flow patterns and their transitions is significant to uncover the flow mechanics of two-phase flow. The local phase distribution and its fluctuations contain rich information regarding the flow structures. A wire-mesh sensor (WMS) was used to study the local phase fluctuations of horizontal gas–liquid two-phase flow, which was verified through comparing the reconstructed three-dimensional flow structure with photographs taken during the experiments. Each crossing point of the WMS is treated as a node, so the measurement on each node is the phase fraction in this local area. An undirected and unweighted flow pattern network was established based on connections that are formed by cross-correlating the time series of each node under different flow patterns. The structure of the flow pattern network reveals the relationship of the phase fluctuations at each node during flow pattern transition, which is then quantified by introducing the topological index of the complex network. The proposed analysis method using the WMS not only provides three-dimensional visualizations of the gas–liquid two-phase flow, but is also a thorough analysis for the structure of flow patterns and the characteristics of flow pattern transition. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Supersensing through industrial process tomography’. PMID:27185959

1/f oscillations in a model of moth populations oriented by diffusive pheromones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbosa, L. A.; Martins, M. L.; Lima, E. R.

2005-01-01

An individual-based model for the population dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda in a homogeneous environment is proposed. The model involves moths feeding plants, mating through an anemotaxis search (i.e., oriented by odor dispersed in a current of air), and dying due to resource competition or at a maximum age. As observed in the laboratory, the females release pheromones at exponentially distributed time intervals, and it is assumed that the ranges of the male flights follow a power-law distribution. Computer simulations of the model reveal the central role of anemotaxis search for the persistence of moth population. Such stationary populations are exponentially distributed in age, exhibit random temporal fluctuations with 1/f spectrum, and self-organize in disordered spatial patterns with long-range correlations. In addition, the model results demonstrate that pest control through pheromone mass trapping is effective only if the amounts of pheromone released by the traps decay much slower than the exponential distribution for calling female.

Path-integral methods for analyzing the effects of fluctuations in stochastic hybrid neural networks.

PubMed

Bressloff, Paul C

2015-01-01

We consider applications of path-integral methods to the analysis of a stochastic hybrid model representing a network of synaptically coupled spiking neuronal populations. The state of each local population is described in terms of two stochastic variables, a continuous synaptic variable and a discrete activity variable. The synaptic variables evolve according to piecewise-deterministic dynamics describing, at the population level, synapses driven by spiking activity. The dynamical equations for the synaptic currents are only valid between jumps in spiking activity, and the latter are described by a jump Markov process whose transition rates depend on the synaptic variables. We assume a separation of time scales between fast spiking dynamics with time constant [Formula: see text] and slower synaptic dynamics with time constant τ. This naturally introduces a small positive parameter [Formula: see text], which can be used to develop various asymptotic expansions of the corresponding path-integral representation of the stochastic dynamics. First, we derive a variational principle for maximum-likelihood paths of escape from a metastable state (large deviations in the small noise limit [Formula: see text]). We then show how the path integral provides an efficient method for obtaining a diffusion approximation of the hybrid system for small ϵ. The resulting Langevin equation can be used to analyze the effects of fluctuations within the basin of attraction of a metastable state, that is, ignoring the effects of large deviations. We illustrate this by using the Langevin approximation to analyze the effects of intrinsic noise on pattern formation in a spatially structured hybrid network. In particular, we show how noise enlarges the parameter regime over which patterns occur, in an analogous fashion to PDEs. Finally, we carry out a [Formula: see text]-loop expansion of the path integral, and use this to derive corrections to voltage-based mean-field equations, analogous to the modified activity-based equations generated from a neural master equation.

Dynamic habitat selection by two wading bird species with divergent foraging strategies in a seasonally fluctuating wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beerens, James M.; Gawlik, Dale E.; Herring, Garth; Cook, Mark I.

2011-01-01

Seasonal and annual variation in food availability during the breeding season plays an influential role in the population dynamics of many avian species. In highly dynamic ecosystems like wetlands, finding and exploiting food resources requires a flexible behavioral response that may produce different population trends that vary with a species' foraging strategy. We quantified dynamic foraging-habitat selection by breeding and radiotagged White Ibises (Eudocimus albus) and Great Egrets (Ardea alba) in the Florida Everglades, where fluctuation in food resources is pronounced because of seasonal drying and flooding. The White Ibis is a tactile “searcher” species in population decline that specializes on highly concentrated prey, whereas the Great Egret, in a growing population, is a visual “exploiter” species that requires lower prey concentrations. In a year with high food availability, resource-selection functions for both species included variables that changed over multiannual time scales and were associated with increased prey production. In a year with low food availability, resource-selection functions included short-term variables that concentrated prey (e.g., water recession rates and reversals in drying pattern), which suggests an adaptive response to poor foraging conditions. In both years, the White Ibis was more restricted in its use of habitats than the Great Egret. Real-time species—habitat suitability models were developed to monitor and assess the daily availability and quality of spatially explicit habitat resources for both species. The models, evaluated through hindcasting using independent observations, demonstrated that habitat use of the more specialized White Ibis was more accurately predicted than that of the more generalist Great Egret.

Genetic Changes in Fluctuating Vole Populations: Selective VS. Nonselective Forces

PubMed Central

Gaines, Michael S.; Whittam, Thomas S.

1980-01-01

The Lewontin-Krakauer test for selective neutrality of polymorphisms was applied to temporal variation in gene frequency at five electrophoretic loci in each of four fluctuating vole populations over a three-year period. The results indicate that changes in gene frequencies were primarily due to nonselective forces. PMID:7021314

Revised Model of the Steady-state Solar Wind Halo Electron Velocity Distribution Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Peter H.; Kim, Sunjung; Choe, G. S.; moon, Y.-J.

2016-08-01

A recent study discussed the steady-state model for solar wind electrons during quiet time conditions. The electrons emanating from the Sun are treated in a composite three-population model—the low-energy Maxwellian core with an energy range of tens of eV, the intermediate ˜102-103 eV energy-range (“halo”) electrons, and the high ˜103-105 eV energy-range (“super-halo”) electrons. In the model, the intermediate energy halo electrons are assumed to be in resonance with transverse EM fluctuations in the whistler frequency range (˜102 Hz), while the high-energy super-halo electrons are presumed to be in steady-state wave-particle resonance with higher-frequency electrostatic fluctuations in the Langmuir frequency range (˜105 Hz). A comparison with STEREO and WIND spacecraft data was also made. However, ignoring the influence of Langmuir fluctuations on the halo population turns out to be an unjustifiable assumption. The present paper rectifies the previous approach by including both Langmuir and whistler fluctuations in the construction of the steady-state velocity distribution function for the halo population, and demonstrates that the role of whistler-range fluctuation is minimal unless the fluctuation intensity is arbitrarily raised. This implies that the Langmuir-range fluctuations, known as the quasi thermal noise, are important for both halo and super-halo electron velocity distribution.

Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data: A New Method Applied to Flows in Europe

PubMed Central

Raymer, James; van der Erf, Rob; van Wissen, Leo

2010-01-01

Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology accounts for both differences in definitions and the effects of measurement error due to, for example, under reporting and sampling fluctuations. More specifically, the differences between the two sets of reported data are overcome by estimating a set of adjustment factors for each country’s immigration and emigration data. The adjusted data take into account any special cases where the origin–destination patterns do not match the overall patterns. The new method for harmonising migration flows that we present is based on earlier efforts by Poulain (European Journal of Population, 9(4): 353–381 1993, Working Paper 12, joint ECE-Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, Switzerland 1999) and is illustrated for movements between 19 European countries from 2002 to 2007. The results represent a reliable and consistent set of international migration flows that can be used for understanding recent changes in migration patterns, as inputs into population projections and for developing evidence-based migration policies. PMID:21124647

Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data: A New Method Applied to Flows in Europe.

PubMed

de Beer, Joop; Raymer, James; van der Erf, Rob; van Wissen, Leo

2010-11-01

Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology accounts for both differences in definitions and the effects of measurement error due to, for example, under reporting and sampling fluctuations. More specifically, the differences between the two sets of reported data are overcome by estimating a set of adjustment factors for each country's immigration and emigration data. The adjusted data take into account any special cases where the origin-destination patterns do not match the overall patterns. The new method for harmonising migration flows that we present is based on earlier efforts by Poulain (European Journal of Population, 9(4): 353-381 1993, Working Paper 12, joint ECE-Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, Switzerland 1999) and is illustrated for movements between 19 European countries from 2002 to 2007. The results represent a reliable and consistent set of international migration flows that can be used for understanding recent changes in migration patterns, as inputs into population projections and for developing evidence-based migration policies.

From Local Adaptation to Ecological Speciation in Copepod Populations from Neighboring Lakes

PubMed Central

Barrera-Moreno, Omar Alfredo; Ciros-Pérez, Jorge; Ortega-Mayagoitia, Elizabeth; Alcántara-Rodríguez, José Arturo; Piedra-Ibarra, Elías

2015-01-01

Continental copepods have been derived from several independent invasive events from the sea, but the subsequent evolutionary processes that account for the current diversity in lacustrine environments are virtually unknown. Salinity is highly variable among lakes and constitutes a source of divergent selection driving potential reproductive isolation. We studied four populations of the calanoid copepod Leptodiaptomus cf. sicilis inhabiting four neighboring lakes with a common history (since the Late Pleistocene) located in the Oriental Basin, Mexico; one lake is shallow and varies in salinity periodically (1.4–10 g L-1), while three are deep and permanent, with constant salinity (0.5, 1.1 and 6.5 g L-1, respectively). We hypothesized that (1) these populations belong to a different species than L. sicilis sensu stricto and (2) are experiencing ecologically based divergence due to salinity differences. We assessed morphological and molecular (mtDNA) COI variation, as well as fitness differences and tests of reproductive isolation. Although relationships of the Mexican populations with L. sicilis s.s. could not be elucidated, we identified a clear pattern of divergent selection driven by salinity conditions. The four populations can still be considered a single biological species (sexual recognition and hybridization are still possible in laboratory conditions), but they have diverged into at least three different phenotypes: two locally adapted, specialized in the lakes of constant salinity (saline vs. freshwater), and an intermediate generalist phenotype inhabiting the temporary lake with fluctuating salinity. The specialized phenotypes are poorly suited as migrants, so prezygotic isolation due to immigrant inviability is highly probable. This implication was supported by molecular evidence that showed restricted gene flow, persistence of founder events, and a pattern of allopatric fragmentation. This study showed how ecologically based divergent selection may explain diversification patterns in lacustrine copepods. PMID:25915059

Natural genetic variation in Arabidopsis thaliana defense metabolism genes modulates field fitness.

PubMed

Kerwin, Rachel; Feusier, Julie; Corwin, Jason; Rubin, Matthew; Lin, Catherine; Muok, Alise; Larson, Brandon; Li, Baohua; Joseph, Bindu; Francisco, Marta; Copeland, Daniel; Weinig, Cynthia; Kliebenstein, Daniel J

2015-04-13

Natural populations persist in complex environments, where biotic stressors, such as pathogen and insect communities, fluctuate temporally and spatially. These shifting biotic pressures generate heterogeneous selective forces that can maintain standing natural variation within a species. To directly test if genes containing causal variation for the Arabidopsis thaliana defensive compounds, glucosinolates (GSL) control field fitness and are therefore subject to natural selection, we conducted a multi-year field trial using lines that vary in only specific causal genes. Interestingly, we found that variation in these naturally polymorphic GSL genes affected fitness in each of our environments but the pattern fluctuated such that highly fit genotypes in one trial displayed lower fitness in another and that no GSL genotype or genotypes consistently out-performed the others. This was true both across locations and within the same location across years. These results indicate that environmental heterogeneity may contribute to the maintenance of GSL variation observed within Arabidopsis thaliana.

Seasonality of births for West Malaysia's two main racial groups.

PubMed

Johnson, J T; Ann, T B; Palan, V T

1975-09-01

Patterns of Malay and Chinese births occurring from January 1964 through December 1969 as registered by Malaysia's Department of Statistics were analyzed by comparing them with charts of major religious and secular holidays and with the marriage distributions (by month) of the 2 ethnic groups. For Malays there was a reduction in conc eptions associated with the Moslem month of Ramadan, a period of fasting. For the Chinese, number of conceptions peaked around the Chinese New Year, the main Chinese festival. For both groups the months of high marriage rates corresponded to months of high conception rates. Seasonal fluctuations in birthrates were higher for Malays than for the Chinese, which appeared to be due to the more pervasive effect of Islamic beliefs and practices on the Malay way of life. As the Malays constitute a more rural population, climate-related factors were considered as a possible explanation of their more extreme seasonal fluctuations, but the influence of climate could not be demonstrated for either the Malays or the Chinese.

Effective size of density-dependent two-sex populations: the effect of mating systems.

PubMed

Myhre, A M; Engen, S; SAEther, B-E

2017-08-01

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N e in short-lived, density-dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density-dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N e /N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male-biased, density-dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density-independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N e /N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Multiplicative and additive modulation of neuronal tuning with population activity affects encoded information

PubMed Central

Arandia-Romero, Iñigo; Tanabe, Seiji; Drugowitsch, Jan; Kohn, Adam; Moreno-Bote, Rubén

2016-01-01

Numerous studies have shown that neuronal responses are modulated by stimulus properties, and also by the state of the local network. However, little is known about how activity fluctuations of neuronal populations modulate the sensory tuning of cells and affect their encoded information. We found that fluctuations in ongoing and stimulus-evoked population activity in primate visual cortex modulate the tuning of neurons in a multiplicative and additive manner. While distributed on a continuum, neurons with stronger multiplicative effects tended to have less additive modulation, and vice versa. The information encoded by multiplicatively-modulated neurons increased with greater population activity, while that of additively-modulated neurons decreased. These effects offset each other, so that population activity had little effect on total information. Our results thus suggest that intrinsic activity fluctuations may act as a `traffic light' that determines which subset of neurons are most informative. PMID:26924437

Thermal fluctuation based study of aqueous deficient dry eyes by non-invasive thermal imaging.

PubMed

Azharuddin, Mohammad; Bera, Sumanta Kr; Datta, Himadri; Dasgupta, Anjan Kr

2014-03-01

In this paper we have studied the thermal fluctuation patterns occurring at the ocular surface of the left and right eyes for aqueous deficient dry eye (ADDE) patients and control subjects by thermal imaging. We conducted our experiment on 42 patients (84 eyes) with aqueous deficient dry eyes and compared with 36 healthy volunteers (72 eyes) without any history of ocular surface disorder. Schirmer's test, Tear Break-up Time, tear Meniscus height and fluorescein staining tests were conducted. Ocular surface temperature measurement was done, using an FL-IR thermal camera and thermal fluctuation in left and right eyes was calculated and analyzed using MATLAB. The time series containing the sum of squares of the temperature fluctuation on the ocular surface were compared for aqueous deficient dry eye and control subjects. Significant statistical difference between the fluctuation patterns for control and ADDE was observed (p < 0.001 at 95% confidence interval). Thermal fluctuations in left and right eyes are significantly correlated in controls but not in ADDE subjects. The possible origin of such correlation in control and lack of correlation in the ADDE subjects is discussed in the text. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental fluctuations restrict eco-evolutionary dynamics in predator-prey system.

PubMed

Hiltunen, Teppo; Ayan, Gökçe B; Becks, Lutz

2015-06-07

Environmental fluctuations, species interactions and rapid evolution are all predicted to affect community structure and their temporal dynamics. Although the effects of the abiotic environment and prey evolution on ecological community dynamics have been studied separately, these factors can also have interactive effects. Here we used bacteria-ciliate microcosm experiments to test for eco-evolutionary dynamics in fluctuating environments. Specifically, we followed population dynamics and a prey defence trait over time when populations were exposed to regular changes of bottom-up or top-down stressors, or combinations of these. We found that the rate of evolution of a defence trait was significantly lower in fluctuating compared with stable environments, and that the defence trait evolved to lower levels when two environmental stressors changed recurrently. The latter suggests that top-down and bottom-up changes can have additive effects constraining evolutionary response within populations. The differences in evolutionary trajectories are explained by fluctuations in population sizes of the prey and the predator, which continuously alter the supply of mutations in the prey and strength of selection through predation. Thus, it may be necessary to adopt an eco-evolutionary perspective on studies concerning the evolution of traits mediating species interactions. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Climate change in the oceans: evolutionary versus phenotypically plastic responses of marine animals and plants

PubMed Central

Reusch, Thorsten B H

2014-01-01

I summarize marine studies on plastic versus adaptive responses to global change. Due to the lack of time series, this review focuses largely on the potential for adaptive evolution in marine animals and plants. The approaches were mainly synchronic comparisons of phenotypically divergent populations, substituting spatial contrasts in temperature or CO2 environments for temporal changes, or in assessments of adaptive genetic diversity within populations for traits important under global change. The available literature is biased towards gastropods, crustaceans, cnidarians and macroalgae. Focal traits were mostly environmental tolerances, which correspond to phenotypic buffering, a plasticity type that maintains a functional phenotype despite external disturbance. Almost all studies address coastal species that are already today exposed to fluctuations in temperature, pH and oxygen levels. Recommendations for future research include (i) initiation and analyses of observational and experimental temporal studies encompassing diverse phenotypic traits (including diapausing cues, dispersal traits, reproductive timing, morphology) (ii) quantification of nongenetic trans-generational effects along with components of additive genetic variance (iii) adaptive changes in microbe–host associations under the holobiont model in response to global change (iv) evolution of plasticity patterns under increasingly fluctuating environments and extreme conditions and (v) joint consideration of demography and evolutionary adaptation in evolutionary rescue approaches. PMID:24454551

Fluctuations of cell population in a colonic crypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Qi-ming; Zhan, Xuan; Yang, Li-jian; Bao, Chun; Cao, Wei; Li, An-bang; Rozi, Anvar; Jia, Ya

2014-03-01

The number of stem cells in a colonic crypt is often very small, which leads to large intrinsic fluctuations in the cell population. Based on the model of cell population dynamics with linear feedback in a colonic crypt, we present a stochastic dynamics of the cell population [including stem cells (SCs), transit amplifying cells (TACs), and fully differentiated cells (FDCs)]. The Fano factor, covariance, and susceptibility formulas of the cell population around the steady state are derived by using the Langevin theory. In the range of physiologically reasonable parameter values, it is found that the stationary populations of TACs and FDCs exhibit an approximately threshold behavior as a function of the net growth rate of TACs, and the reproductions of TACs and FDCs can be classified into three regimens: controlled, crossover, and uncontrolled. With the increasing of the net growth rate of TACs, there is a maximum of the relative intrinsic fluctuations (i.e., the Fano factors) of TACs and FDCs in the crossover region. For a fixed differentiation rate and the net growth rate of SCs, the covariance of fluctuations between SCs and TACs has a maximum in the crossover region. However, the susceptibilities of both TACs and FDCs to the net growth rate of TACs have a minimum in the crossover region.

Doping dependence of the anisotropic quasiparticle interference in NaFe(1-x)Co(x)As iron-based superconductors.

PubMed

Cai, Peng; Ruan, Wei; Zhou, Xiaodong; Ye, Cun; Wang, Aifeng; Chen, Xianhui; Lee, Dung-Hai; Wang, Yayu

2014-03-28

We use scanning tunneling microscopy to investigate the doping dependence of quasiparticle interference (QPI) in NaFe1-xCoxAs iron-based superconductors. The goal is to study the relation between nematic fluctuations and Cooper pairing. In the parent and underdoped compounds, where fourfold rotational symmetry is broken macroscopically, the QPI patterns reveal strong rotational anisotropy. At optimal doping, however, the QPI patterns are always fourfold symmetric. We argue this implies small nematic susceptibility and, hence, insignificant nematic fluctuation in optimally doped iron pnictides. Since TC is the highest this suggests nematic fluctuation is not a prerequistite for strong Cooper pairing.

Atherosclerotic plaque characterization by spatial and temporal speckle pattern analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tearney, Guillermo J.; Bouma, Brett E.

2002-04-01

Improved methods are needed to identify the vulnerable coronary plaques responsible for acute myocardial infraction or sudden cardiac death. We describe a method for characterizing the structure and biomechanical properties of atherosclerotic plaques based on speckle pattern fluctuations. Near-field speckle images were acquired from five human aortic specimens ex vivo. The speckle decorrelation time constant varied significantly for vulnerable aortic plaques (τ = 40 ms) versus stable plaques (τ = 400 ms) and normal aorta (τ = 500 ms). These initial results indicate that different atherosclerotic plaque types may be distinguished by analysis of temporal and spatial speckle pattern fluctuations.

Phylogeography of the Mekong mud snake (Enhydris subtaeniata): the biogeographic importance of dynamic river drainages and fluctuating sea levels for semiaquatic taxa in Indochina

PubMed Central

Lukoschek, Vimoksalehi; Osterhage, Jennifer L; Karns, Daryl R; Murphy, John C; Voris, Harold K

2011-01-01

During the Cenozoic, Southeast Asia was profoundly affected by plate tectonic events, dynamic river systems, fluctuating sea levels, shifting coastlines, and climatic variation, which have influenced the ecological and evolutionary trajectories of the Southeast Asian flora and fauna. We examined the role of these paleogeographic factors on shaping phylogeographic patterns focusing on a species of semiaquatic snake, Enhydris subtaeniata (Serpentes: Homalopsidae) using sequence data from three mitochondrial fragments (cytochrome b, ND4, and ATPase—2785 bp). We sampled E. subtaeniata from seven locations in three river drainage basins that encompassed most of this species’ range. Genetic diversities were typically low within locations but high across locations. Moreover, each location had a unique suite of haplotypes not shared among locations, and pairwise φST values (0.713–0.998) were highly significant between all location pairs. Relationships among phylogroups were well resolved and analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed strong geographical partitioning of genetic variance among the three river drainage basins surveyed. The genetic differences observed among the populations of E. subtaeniata were likely shaped by the Quaternary landscapes of Indochina and the Sunda Shelf. Historically, the middle and lower Mekong consisted of strongly dissected river valleys separated by low mountain ranges and much of the Sunda Shelf consisted of lowland river valleys that served to connect faunas associated with major regional rivers. It is thus likely that the contemporary genetic patterns observed among populations of E. subtaeniata are the result of their histories in a complex terrain that created abundant opportunities for genetic isolation and divergence yet also provided lowland connections across now drowned river valleys. PMID:22393504

Fluctuating interaction network and time-varying stability of a natural fish community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushio, Masayuki; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Masuda, Reiji; Deyle, Ethan R.; Ye, Hao; Chang, Chun-Wei; Sugihara, George; Kondoh, Michio

2018-02-01

Ecological theory suggests that large-scale patterns such as community stability can be influenced by changes in interspecific interactions that arise from the behavioural and/or physiological responses of individual species varying over time. Although this theory has experimental support, evidence from natural ecosystems is lacking owing to the challenges of tracking rapid changes in interspecific interactions (known to occur on timescales much shorter than a generation time) and then identifying the effect of such changes on large-scale community dynamics. Here, using tools for analysing nonlinear time series and a 12-year-long dataset of fortnightly collected observations on a natural marine fish community in Maizuru Bay, Japan, we show that short-term changes in interaction networks influence overall community dynamics. Among the 15 dominant species, we identify 14 interspecific interactions to construct a dynamic interaction network. We show that the strengths, and even types, of interactions change with time; we also develop a time-varying stability measure based on local Lyapunov stability for attractor dynamics in non-equilibrium nonlinear systems. We use this dynamic stability measure to examine the link between the time-varying interaction network and community stability. We find seasonal patterns in dynamic stability for this fish community that broadly support expectations of current ecological theory. Specifically, the dominance of weak interactions and higher species diversity during summer months are associated with higher dynamic stability and smaller population fluctuations. We suggest that interspecific interactions, community network structure and community stability are dynamic properties, and that linking fluctuating interaction networks to community-level dynamic properties is key to understanding the maintenance of ecological communities in nature.

Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.

PubMed

García de León, David; García-Mozo, Herminia; Galán, Carmen; Alcázar, Purificación; Lima, Mauricio; González-Andújar, José L

2015-10-15

Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are the Formation and Abundances of Metal-poor Stars the Result of Dust Dynamics?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hopkins, Philip F.; Conroy, Charlie, E-mail: phopkins@caltech.edu

Large dust grains can fluctuate dramatically in their local density, relative to the gas, in neutral turbulent disks. Small, high-redshift galaxies (before reionization) represent ideal environments for this process. We show via simple arguments and simulations that order-of-magnitude fluctuations are expected in local abundances of large grains (>100 Å) under these conditions. This can have important consequences for star formation and stellar metal abundances in extremely metal-poor stars. Low-mass stars can form in dust-enhanced regions almost immediately after some dust forms even if the galaxy-average metallicity is too low for fragmentation to occur. We argue that the metal abundances ofmore » these “promoted” stars may contain interesting signatures as the CNO abundances (concentrated in large carbonaceous grains and ices) and Mg and Si (in large silicate grains) can be enhanced and/or fluctuate almost independently. Remarkably, the otherwise puzzling abundance patterns of some metal-poor stars can be well fit by standard IMF-averaged core-collapse SNe yields if we allow for fluctuating local dust-to-gas ratios. We also show that the observed log-normal distribution of enhancements in pure SNe yields, shows very large enhancements and variations up to factors of ≳100 as expected in the dust-promoted model, preferentially in the [C/Fe]-enhanced metal-poor stars. Together, this suggests that (1) dust exists in second-generation star formation, (2) local dust-to-gas ratio fluctuations occur in protogalaxies and can be important for star formation, and (3) the light element abundances of these stars may be affected by the local chemistry of dust where they formed, rather than directly tracing nucleosynthesis from earlier populations.« less

Pulsational mode fluctuations and their basic conservation laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borah, B.; Karmakar, P. K.

2015-01-01

We propose a theoretical hydrodynamic model for investigating the basic features of nonlinear pulsational mode stability in a partially charged dust molecular cloud within the framework of the Jeans homogenization assumption. The inhomogeneous cloud is modeled as a quasi-neutral multifluid consisting of the warm electrons, warm ions, and identical inertial cold dust grains with partial ionization in a neutral gaseous background. The grain-charge is assumed not to vary in the fluctuation evolution time scale. The active inertial roles of the thermal species are included. We apply a standard multiple scaling technique centered on the gravito-electrostatic equilibrium to understand the fluctuations on the astrophysical scales of space and time. This is found that electrostatic and self-gravitational eigenmodes co-exist as diverse solitary spectral patterns governed by a pair of Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equations. In addition, all the relevant classical conserved quantities associated with the KdV system under translational invariance are methodologically derived and numerically analyzed. A full numerical shape-analysis of the fluctuations, scale lengths and perturbed densities with multi-parameter variation of judicious plasma conditions is carried out. A correlation of the perturbed densities and gravito-electrostatic spectral patterns is also graphically indicated. It is demonstrated that the solitary mass, momentum and energy densities also evolve like solitary spectral patterns which remain conserved throughout the spatiotemporal scales of the fluctuation dynamics. Astrophysical and space environments significant to our results are briefly highlighted.

Recruitment dynamics in complex life cycles. [of organisms living in marine rocky zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roughgarden, Jonathan; Possingham, Hugh; Gaines, Steven

1988-01-01

Factors affecting marine population fluctuations are discussed with particular attention given to a common barnacle species of the Pacific coast of North America. It is shown how models combining larval circulation with adult interactions can potentially forecast population fluctuations. These findings demonstrate how processes in different ecological habitats are coupled.

Evolutionary dynamics of fluctuating populations with strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David

2013-03-01

Evolutionary game theory with finite interacting populations is receiving increased attention, including subtle phenomena associated with number fluctuations, i.e., ``genetic drift.'' Models of cooperation and competition often utilize a simplified Moran model, with a strictly fixed total population size. We explore a more general evolutionary model with independent fluctuations in the numbers of two distinct species, in a regime characterized by ``strong mutualism.'' The model has two absorbing states, each corresponding to fixation of one of the two species, and allows exploration of the interplay between growth, competition, and mutualism. When mutualism is favored, number fluctuations eventually drive the system away from a stable fixed point, characterized by cooperation, to one of the absorbing states. Well-mixed populations will thus be taken over by a single species in a finite time, despite the bias towards cooperation. We calculate both the fixation probability and the mean fixation time as a function of the initial conditions and carrying capacities in the strong mutualism regime, using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. Our results are compared to computer simulations.

Quantifying the past and future impact of climate on outbreak patterns of bank voles (Myodes glareolus).

PubMed

Imholt, Christian; Reil, Daniela; Eccard, Jana A; Jacob, Daniela; Hempelmann, Nils; Jacob, Jens

2015-02-01

Central European outbreak populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus Schreber) are known to cause damage in forestry and to transmit the most common type of Hantavirus (Puumala virus, PUUV) to humans. A sound estimation of potential effects of future climate scenarios on population dynamics is a prerequisite for long-term management strategies. Historic abundance time series were used to identify the key weather conditions associated with bank vole abundance, and were extrapolated to future climate scenarios to derive potential long-term changes in bank vole abundance dynamics. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed the most relevant weather parameters associated with high and low bank vole abundances. Summer temperatures 2 years prior to trapping had the highest impact on abundance fluctuation. Extrapolation of the identified parameters to future climate conditions revealed an increase in years with high vole abundance. Key weather patterns associated with vole abundance reflect the importance of superabundant food supply through masting to the occurrence of bank vole outbreaks. Owing to changing climate, these outbreaks are predicted potentially to increase in frequency 3-4-fold by the end of this century. This may negatively affect damage patterns in forestry and the risk of human PUUV infection in the long term. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Self-organized instability in complex ecosystems.

PubMed

Solé, Ricard V; Alonso, David; McKane, Alan

2002-05-29

Why are some ecosystems so rich, yet contain so many rare species? High species diversity, together with rarity, is a general trend in neotropical forests and coral reefs. However, the origin of such diversity and the consequences of food web complexity in both species abundances and temporal fluctuations are not well understood. Several regularities are observed in complex, multispecies ecosystems that suggest that these ecologies might be organized close to points of instability. We explore, in greater depth, a recent stochastic model of population dynamics that is shown to reproduce: (i) the scaling law linking species number and connectivity; (ii) the observed distributions of species abundance reported from field studies (showing long tails and thus a predominance of rare species); (iii) the complex fluctuations displayed by natural communities (including chaotic dynamics); and (iv) the species-area relations displayed by rainforest plots. It is conjectured that the conflict between the natural tendency towards higher diversity due to immigration, and the ecosystem level constraints derived from an increasing number of links, leaves the system poised at a critical boundary separating stable from unstable communities, where large fluctuations are expected to occur. We suggest that the patterns displayed by species-rich communities, including rarity, would result from such a spontaneous tendency towards instability.

The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics.

PubMed

Colizza, Vittoria; Barrat, Alain; Barthélemy, Marc; Vespignani, Alessandro

2006-02-14

The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this article, we present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete worldwide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: (i) we study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; and (ii) we evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. To address these issues we define a set of quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

2017-01-01

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.

Genetic divergence in the common bush-tanager Chlorospingus ophthalmicus (Aves: Emberizidae) throughout Mexican cloud forests: The role of geography, ecology and Pleistocene climatic fluctuations.

PubMed

Maldonado-Sánchez, Denisse; Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Carla; Ornelas, Juan Francisco

2016-06-01

By integrating mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), microsatellites and ecological niche modelling (ENM), we investigated the phylogeography of Mexican populations of the common bush-tanager Chlorospingus ophthalmicus to examine the relative role of geographical and ecological features, as well as Pleistocene climatic oscillations in driving the diversification. We sequenced mtDNA of individuals collected throughout the species range in Mexico and genotyped them at seven microsatellite loci. Phylogeographic, population genetics and coalescent methods were used to assess patterns of genetic structure, gene flow and demographic history. ENM was used to infer contractions and expansions at different time periods as well as differences in climatic conditions among lineages. The retrieved mitochondrial and microsatellite groups correspond with the fragmented cloud forest distribution in mountain ranges and morphotectonic provinces. Differing climatic conditions between mountain ranges were detected, and palaeodistribution modelling as well as demographic history analyses, indicated recent population expansions throughout the Sierra Madre Oriental (SMO). The marked genetic structure of C. ophthalmicus was promoted by the presence of ecological and geographical barriers that restricted the movement of individuals among mountain ranges. The SMO was mainly affected by Pleistocene climatic oscillations, with the moist forests model best fitting the displayed genetic patterns of populations in this mountain range. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Schindler, Daniel E; Lisi, Peter J; Holtgrieve, Gordon W; Leavitt, Peter R; Bunting, Lynda; Finney, Bruce P; Selbie, Daniel T; Chen, Guangjie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Lisac, Mark J; Walsh, Patrick B

2013-01-29

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems.

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Lisi, Peter J.; Holtgrieve, Gordon W.; Leavitt, Peter R.; Bunting, Lynda; Finney, Bruce P.; Selbie, Daniel T.; Chen, Guangjie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Lisac, Mark J.; Walsh, Patrick B.

2013-01-01

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems. PMID:23322737

Speckle in the diffraction patterns of Hendricks-Teller and icosahedral glass models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garg, Anupam; Levine, Dov

1988-01-01

It is shown that the X-ray diffraction patterns from the Hendricks-Teller model for layered systems and the icosahedral glass models for the icosahedral phases show large fluctuations between nearby scattering wave vectors and from sample to sample, that are quite analogous to laser speckle. The statistics of these fluctuations are studied analytically for the first model and via computer simulations for the second. The observability of these effects is discussed briefly.

Connecting Amazonian, Cerrado, and Atlantic Forest histories: Paraphyly, old divergences, and modern population dynamics in tyrant-manakins (Neopelma/Tyranneutes, Aves: Pipridae).

PubMed

Capurucho, João Marcos Guimarães; Ashley, Mary V; Ribas, Camila C; Bates, John M

2018-06-11

Several biogeographic hypotheses have been proposed to explain connections between Amazonian and Atlantic forest biotas. These hypotheses are related to the timing of the connections and their geographic patterns. We performed a phylogeographic investigation of Tyrant-manakins (Aves: Pipridae, Neopelma/Tyranneutes) which include species inhabiting the Amazon and Atlantic forests, as well as gallery forests of the Cerrado. Using DNA sequence data, we determined phylogenetic relationships, temporal and geographic patterns of diversification, and recent intraspecific population genetic patterns, relative to the history of these biomes. We found Neopelma to be a paraphyletic genus, as N. chrysolophum is sister to Neopelma + Tyranneutes, with an estimated divergence of approximately 18 Myrs BP, within the oldest estimated divergence times of other Amazonian and Atlantic forest avian taxa. Subsequent divergences in the group occurred from Mid Miocene to Early Pliocene and involved mainly the Amazonian species, with an expansion into and subsequent speciation in the Cerrado gallery forests by N. pallescens. We found additional structure within N. chrysocephalum and N. sulphureiventer. Analysis of recent population dynamics in N. chrysocephalum, N. sulphureiventer, and N. pallescens revealed recent demographic fluctuations and restrictions to gene flow related to environmental changes since the last glacial cycle. No genetic structure was detected across the Amazon River in N. pallescens. The tyrant-manakins represent an old historical connection between the Amazon and Atlantic Forest. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Historical fire and multidecadal drought as context for piñon - Juniper woodland restoration in western Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinneman, Douglas J.; Baker, William L.

2009-01-01

Fire is known to structure tree populations, but the role of broad-scale climate variability is less clear. For example, the influence of climatic “teleconnections” (the relationship between oceanic–atmospheric fluctuations and anomalous weather patterns across broad scales) on forest age structure is relatively unexplored. We sampled semiarid piñon–juniper (Pinus edulis–Juniperus osteosperma) woodlands in western Colorado, USA, to test the hypothesis that woodland age structures are shaped by climate, including links to oceanic–atmospheric fluctuations, and by past fires and livestock grazing. Low-severity surface fire was lacking, as fire scars were absent, and did not influence woodland densities, but stand-replacing fires served as long-rotation (>400–600 years), stand-initiating events. Old-growth stands (>300 years old) were found in 75% of plots, consistent with a long fire rotation. Juniper and piñon age structures suggest contrasting responses during the past several centuries to dry and wet episodes linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Juniper density increased slightly during periods of drought, positive (warm) AMO (after ∼10-year lag), and negative (cool) PDO. In contrast, piñon populations may still be recovering from a long, drought-filled period (AD 1620–1820), with pulses of recovery favored during cool AMO, warm PDO, and above-average moisture periods. Analysis of 20th-century tree establishment and instrumental climate data corroborate the long-term relationships between age structure and climate. After Euro–American settlement (AD 1881), livestock grazing reduced understory grasses and forbs, reducing competition with tree seedlings and facilitating climate-induced increases in piñons. Thus tree populations in these woodlands are in flux, affected by drought and wet periods linked to oceanic–atmospheric variability, Euro–American livestock grazing, and long-rotation, high-severity fires. Reductions in livestock grazing levels may aid ecological restoration efforts. However, given long-term fluctuations in tree density and composition, and expected further drought, thinning or burning to reduce tree populations may be misdirected.

Two disjunct Pleistocene populations and anisotropic postglacial expansion shaped the current genetic structure of the relict plant Amborella trichopoda

PubMed Central

Tournebize, Rémi; Manel, Stéphanie; Vigouroux, Yves; Munoz, François; de Kochko, Alexandre

2017-01-01

Past climate fluctuations shaped the population dynamics of organisms in space and time, and have impacted their present intra-specific genetic structure. Demo-genetic modelling allows inferring the way past demographic and migration dynamics have determined this structure. Amborella trichopoda is an emblematic relict plant endemic to New Caledonia, widely distributed in the understory of non-ultramafic rainforests. We assessed the influence of the last glacial climates on the demographic history and the paleo-distribution of 12 Amborella populations covering the whole current distribution. We performed coalescent genetic modelling of these dynamics, based on both whole-genome resequencing and microsatellite genotyping data. We found that the two main genetic groups of Amborella were shaped by the divergence of two ancestral populations during the last glacial maximum. From 12,800 years BP, the South ancestral population has expanded 6.3-fold while the size of the North population has remained stable. Recent asymmetric gene flow between the groups further contributed to the phylogeographical pattern. Spatially explicit coalescent modelling allowed us to estimate the location of ancestral populations with good accuracy (< 22 km) and provided indications regarding the mid-elevation pathways that facilitated post-glacial expansion. PMID:28820899

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems: A fluctuating-hydrodynamics approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Changho; Nonaka, Andy; Bell, John B.; Garcia, Alejandro L.; Donev, Aleksandar

2017-03-01

We develop numerical methods for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems based on approaches used for fluctuating hydrodynamics (FHD). For hydrodynamic systems, the FHD formulation is formally described by stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). In the reaction-diffusion systems we consider, our model becomes similar to the reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) description when our SPDEs are spatially discretized and reactions are modeled as a source term having Poisson fluctuations. However, unlike the RDME, which becomes prohibitively expensive for an increasing number of molecules, our FHD-based description naturally extends from the regime where fluctuations are strong, i.e., each mesoscopic cell has few (reactive) molecules, to regimes with moderate or weak fluctuations, and ultimately to the deterministic limit. By treating diffusion implicitly, we avoid the severe restriction on time step size that limits all methods based on explicit treatments of diffusion and construct numerical methods that are more efficient than RDME methods, without compromising accuracy. Guided by an analysis of the accuracy of the distribution of steady-state fluctuations for the linearized reaction-diffusion model, we construct several two-stage (predictor-corrector) schemes, where diffusion is treated using a stochastic Crank-Nicolson method, and reactions are handled by the stochastic simulation algorithm of Gillespie or a weakly second-order tau leaping method. We find that an implicit midpoint tau leaping scheme attains second-order weak accuracy in the linearized setting and gives an accurate and stable structure factor for a time step size of an order of magnitude larger than the hopping time scale of diffusing molecules. We study the numerical accuracy of our methods for the Schlögl reaction-diffusion model both in and out of thermodynamic equilibrium. We demonstrate and quantify the importance of thermodynamic fluctuations to the formation of a two-dimensional Turing-like pattern and examine the effect of fluctuations on three-dimensional chemical front propagation. By comparing stochastic simulations to deterministic reaction-diffusion simulations, we show that fluctuations accelerate pattern formation in spatially homogeneous systems and lead to a qualitatively different disordered pattern behind a traveling wave.

Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems: A fluctuating-hydrodynamics approach

DOE PAGES

Kim, Changho; Nonaka, Andy; Bell, John B.; ...

2017-03-24

Here, we develop numerical methods for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems based on approaches used for fluctuating hydrodynamics (FHD). For hydrodynamic systems, the FHD formulation is formally described by stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). In the reaction-diffusion systems we consider, our model becomes similar to the reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) description when our SPDEs are spatially discretized and reactions are modeled as a source term having Poisson fluctuations. However, unlike the RDME, which becomes prohibitively expensive for an increasing number of molecules, our FHD-based description naturally extends from the regime where fluctuations are strong, i.e., each mesoscopic cell has few (reactive) molecules,more » to regimes with moderate or weak fluctuations, and ultimately to the deterministic limit. By treating diffusion implicitly, we avoid the severe restriction on time step size that limits all methods based on explicit treatments of diffusion and construct numerical methods that are more efficient than RDME methods, without compromising accuracy. Guided by an analysis of the accuracy of the distribution of steady-state fluctuations for the linearized reaction-diffusion model, we construct several two-stage (predictor-corrector) schemes, where diffusion is treated using a stochastic Crank-Nicolson method, and reactions are handled by the stochastic simulation algorithm of Gillespie or a weakly second-order tau leaping method. We find that an implicit midpoint tau leaping scheme attains second-order weak accuracy in the linearized setting and gives an accurate and stable structure factor for a time step size of an order of magnitude larger than the hopping time scale of diffusing molecules. We study the numerical accuracy of our methods for the Schlögl reaction-diffusion model both in and out of thermodynamic equilibrium. We demonstrate and quantify the importance of thermodynamic fluctuations to the formation of a two-dimensional Turing-like pattern and examine the effect of fluctuations on three-dimensional chemical front propagation. Furthermore, by comparing stochastic simulations to deterministic reaction-diffusion simulations, we show that fluctuations accelerate pattern formation in spatially homogeneous systems and lead to a qualitatively different disordered pattern behind a traveling wave.« less

Limited genomic consequences of mixed mating in the recently derived sister species pair, Collinsia concolor and Collinsia parryi.

PubMed

Salcedo, A; Kalisz, S; Wright, S I

2014-07-01

Highly selfing species often show reduced effective population sizes and reduced selection efficacy. Whether mixed mating species, which produce both self and outcross progeny, show similar patterns of diversity and selection remains less clear. Examination of patterns of molecular evolution and levels of diversity in species with mixed mating systems can be particularly useful for investigating the relative importance of linked selection and demographic effects on diversity and the efficacy of selection, as the effects of linked selection should be minimal in mixed mating populations, although severe bottlenecks tied to founder events could still be frequent. To begin to address this gap, we assembled and analysed the transcriptomes of individuals from a recently diverged mixed mating sister species pair in the self-compatible genus, Collinsia. The de novo assembly of 52 and 37 Mbp C. concolor and C. parryi transcriptomes resulted in ~40 000 and ~55 000 contigs, respectively, both with an average contig size ~945. We observed a high ratio of shared polymorphisms to fixed differences in the species pair and minimal differences between species in the ratio of synonymous to replacement substitutions or codon usage bias implying comparable effective population sizes throughout species divergence. Our results suggest that differences in effective population size and selection efficacy in mixed mating taxa shortly after their divergence may be minimal and are likely influenced by fluctuating mating systems and population sizes. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Response of single bacterial cells to stress gives rise to complex history dependence at the population level

PubMed Central

Mathis, Roland; Ackermann, Martin

2016-01-01

Most bacteria live in ever-changing environments where periods of stress are common. One fundamental question is whether individual bacterial cells have an increased tolerance to stress if they recently have been exposed to lower levels of the same stressor. To address this question, we worked with the bacterium Caulobacter crescentus and asked whether exposure to a moderate concentration of sodium chloride would affect survival during later exposure to a higher concentration. We found that the effects measured at the population level depended in a surprising and complex way on the time interval between the two exposure events: The effect of the first exposure on survival of the second exposure was positive for some time intervals but negative for others. We hypothesized that the complex pattern of history dependence at the population level was a consequence of the responses of individual cells to sodium chloride that we observed: (i) exposure to moderate concentrations of sodium chloride caused delays in cell division and led to cell-cycle synchronization, and (ii) whether a bacterium would survive subsequent exposure to higher concentrations was dependent on the cell-cycle state. Using computational modeling, we demonstrated that indeed the combination of these two effects could explain the complex patterns of history dependence observed at the population level. Our insight into how the behavior of single cells scales up to processes at the population level provides a perspective on how organisms operate in dynamic environments with fluctuating stress exposure. PMID:26960998

REVISED MODEL OF THE STEADY-STATE SOLAR WIND HALO ELECTRON VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Peter H.; Kim, Sunjung; Choe, G. S.

2016-08-01

A recent study discussed the steady-state model for solar wind electrons during quiet time conditions. The electrons emanating from the Sun are treated in a composite three-population model—the low-energy Maxwellian core with an energy range of tens of eV, the intermediate ∼10{sup 2}–10{sup 3} eV energy-range (“halo”) electrons, and the high ∼10{sup 3}–10{sup 5} eV energy-range (“super-halo”) electrons. In the model, the intermediate energy halo electrons are assumed to be in resonance with transverse EM fluctuations in the whistler frequency range (∼10{sup 2} Hz), while the high-energy super-halo electrons are presumed to be in steady-state wave–particle resonance with higher-frequency electrostaticmore » fluctuations in the Langmuir frequency range (∼10{sup 5} Hz). A comparison with STEREO and WIND spacecraft data was also made. However, ignoring the influence of Langmuir fluctuations on the halo population turns out to be an unjustifiable assumption. The present paper rectifies the previous approach by including both Langmuir and whistler fluctuations in the construction of the steady-state velocity distribution function for the halo population, and demonstrates that the role of whistler-range fluctuation is minimal unless the fluctuation intensity is arbitrarily raised. This implies that the Langmuir-range fluctuations, known as the quasi thermal noise, are important for both halo and super-halo electron velocity distribution.« less

Predicting Virtual World User Population Fluctuations with Deep Learning

PubMed Central

Park, Nuri; Zhang, Qimeng; Kim, Jun Gi; Kang, Shin Jin; Kim, Chang Hun

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a system for predicting increases in virtual world user actions. The virtual world user population is a very important aspect of these worlds; however, methods for predicting fluctuations in these populations have not been well documented. Therefore, we attempt to predict changes in virtual world user populations with deep learning, using easily accessible online data, including formal datasets from Google Trends, Wikipedia, and online communities, as well as informal datasets collected from online forums. We use the proposed system to analyze the user population of EVE Online, one of the largest virtual worlds. PMID:27936009

Predicting Virtual World User Population Fluctuations with Deep Learning.

PubMed

Kim, Young Bin; Park, Nuri; Zhang, Qimeng; Kim, Jun Gi; Kang, Shin Jin; Kim, Chang Hun

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a system for predicting increases in virtual world user actions. The virtual world user population is a very important aspect of these worlds; however, methods for predicting fluctuations in these populations have not been well documented. Therefore, we attempt to predict changes in virtual world user populations with deep learning, using easily accessible online data, including formal datasets from Google Trends, Wikipedia, and online communities, as well as informal datasets collected from online forums. We use the proposed system to analyze the user population of EVE Online, one of the largest virtual worlds.

Cosmic Infrared Background Fluctuations in Deep Spitzer Infrared Array Camera Images: Data Processing and Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arendt, Richard G.; Kashlinsky, A.; Moseley, S. H.; Mather, J.

2010-01-01

This paper provides a detailed description of the data reduction and analysis procedures that have been employed in our previous studies of spatial fluctuation of the cosmic infrared background (CIB) using deep Spitzer Infrared Array Camera observations. The self-calibration we apply removes a strong instrumental signal from the fluctuations that would otherwise corrupt the results. The procedures and results for masking bright sources and modeling faint sources down to levels set by the instrumental noise are presented. Various tests are performed to demonstrate that the resulting power spectra of these fields are not dominated by instrumental or procedural effects. These tests indicate that the large-scale (gsim30') fluctuations that remain in the deepest fields are not directly related to the galaxies that are bright enough to be individually detected. We provide the parameterization of these power spectra in terms of separate instrument noise, shot noise, and power-law components. We discuss the relationship between fluctuations measured at different wavelengths and depths, and the relations between constraints on the mean intensity of the CIB and its fluctuation spectrum. Consistent with growing evidence that the ~1-5 μm mean intensity of the CIB may not be as far above the integrated emission of resolved galaxies as has been reported in some analyses of DIRBE and IRTS observations, our measurements of spatial fluctuations of the CIB intensity indicate the mean emission from the objects producing the fluctuations is quite low (gsim1 nW m-2 sr-1 at 3-5 μm), and thus consistent with current γ-ray absorption constraints. The source of the fluctuations may be high-z Population III objects, or a more local component of very low luminosity objects with clustering properties that differ from the resolved galaxies. Finally, we discuss the prospects of the upcoming space-based surveys to directly measure the epochs inhabited by the populations producing these source-subtracted CIB fluctuations, and to isolate the individual fluxes of these populations.

Nonparametric Bayesian clustering to detect bipolar methylated genomic loci.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaowei; Sun, Ming-An; Zhu, Hongxiao; Xie, Hehuang

2015-01-16

With recent development in sequencing technology, a large number of genome-wide DNA methylation studies have generated massive amounts of bisulfite sequencing data. The analysis of DNA methylation patterns helps researchers understand epigenetic regulatory mechanisms. Highly variable methylation patterns reflect stochastic fluctuations in DNA methylation, whereas well-structured methylation patterns imply deterministic methylation events. Among these methylation patterns, bipolar patterns are important as they may originate from allele-specific methylation (ASM) or cell-specific methylation (CSM). Utilizing nonparametric Bayesian clustering followed by hypothesis testing, we have developed a novel statistical approach to identify bipolar methylated genomic regions in bisulfite sequencing data. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves good performance in terms of specificity and sensitivity. We used the method to analyze data from mouse brain and human blood methylomes. The bipolar methylated segments detected are found highly consistent with the differentially methylated regions identified by using purified cell subsets. Bipolar DNA methylation often indicates epigenetic heterogeneity caused by ASM or CSM. With allele-specific events filtered out or appropriately taken into account, our proposed approach sheds light on the identification of cell-specific genes/pathways under strong epigenetic control in a heterogeneous cell population.

Multiscale analysis of the intensity fluctuation in a time series of dynamic speckle patterns.

PubMed

Federico, Alejandro; Kaufmann, Guillermo H

2007-04-10

We propose the application of a method based on the discrete wavelet transform to detect, identify, and measure scaling behavior in dynamic speckle. The multiscale phenomena presented by a sample and displayed by its speckle activity are analyzed by processing the time series of dynamic speckle patterns. The scaling analysis is applied to the temporal fluctuation of the speckle intensity and also to the two derived data sets generated by its magnitude and sign. The application of the method is illustrated by analyzing paint-drying processes and bruising in apples. The results are discussed taking into account the different time organizations obtained for the scaling behavior of the magnitude and the sign of the intensity fluctuation.

Drift, selection, or migration? Processes affecting genetic differentiation and variation along a latitudinal gradient in an amphibian.

PubMed

Cortázar-Chinarro, Maria; Lattenkamp, Ella Z; Meyer-Lucht, Yvonne; Luquet, Emilien; Laurila, Anssi; Höglund, Jacob

2017-08-14

Past events like fluctuations in population size and post-glacial colonization processes may influence the relative importance of genetic drift, migration and selection when determining the present day patterns of genetic variation. We disentangle how drift, selection and migration shape neutral and adaptive genetic variation in 12 moor frog populations along a 1700 km latitudinal gradient. We studied genetic differentiation and variation at a MHC exon II locus and a set of 18 microsatellites. Using outlier analyses, we identified the MHC II exon 2 (corresponding to the β-2 domain) locus and one microsatellite locus (RCO8640) to be subject to diversifying selection, while five microsatellite loci showed signals of stabilizing selection among populations. STRUCTURE and DAPC analyses on the neutral microsatellites assigned populations to a northern and a southern cluster, reflecting two different post-glacial colonization routes found in previous studies. Genetic variation overall was lower in the northern cluster. The signature of selection on MHC exon II was weaker in the northern cluster, possibly as a consequence of smaller and more fragmented populations. Our results show that historical demographic processes combined with selection and drift have led to a complex pattern of differentiation along the gradient where some loci are more divergent among populations than predicted from drift expectations due to diversifying selection, while other loci are more uniform among populations due to stabilizing selection. Importantly, both overall and MHC genetic variation are lower at northern latitudes. Due to lower evolutionary potential, the low genetic variation in northern populations may increase the risk of extinction when confronted with emerging pathogens and climate change.

Fluctuating asymmetry and testing isolation of Montana grizzly bear populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Picton, Harold D.; Palmisciano, Daniel A.; Nelson, Gerald

1990-01-01

Fluctuating asymmetry of adult skulls was used to test he genetic isolation of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population from its nearest neighbor. An overall summary statistic was used in addition to 16 other parameters. Tests found the males of the Yellowstone populaion to be more vaiable than those of the North Conitinental Divide Exosystem. Evidence for precipitaiton effects is also included. This test tends to support the existing management haypothesis that the Yellowstone population is isolatied.

Mortality gradients within and among dominant plant populations as barometers of ecosystem change during extreme drought.

PubMed

Gitlin, Alicyn R; Sthultz, Christopher M; Bowker, Matthew A; Stumpf, Stacy; Paxton, Kristina L; Kennedy, Karla; Muñoz, Axhel; Bailey, Joseph K; Whitham, Thomas G

2006-10-01

Understanding patterns of plant population mortality during extreme weather events is important to conservation planners because the frequency of such events is expected to increase, creating the need to integrate climatic uncertainty into management. Dominant plants provide habitat and ecosystem structure, so changes in their distribution can be expected to have cascading effects on entire communities. Observing areas that respond quickly to climate fluctuations provides foresight into future ecological changes and will help prioritize conservation efforts. We investigated patterns of mortality in six dominant plant species during a drought in the southwestern United States. We quantified population mortality for each species across its regional distribution and tested hypotheses to identify ecological stress gradients for each species. Our results revealed three major patterns: (1) dominant species from diverse habitat types (i.e., riparian, chaparral, and low- to high-elevation forests) exhibited significant mortality, indicating that the effects of drought were widespread; (2) average mortality differed among dominant species (one-seed juniper[Juniperus monosperma (Engelm.) Sarg.] 3.3%; manzanita[Arctostaphylos pungens Kunth], 14.6%; quaking aspen[Populus tremuloides Michx.], 15.4%; ponderosa pine[Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson], 15.9%; Fremont cottonwood[Populus fremontii S. Wats.], 20.7%; and pinyon pine[Pinus edulis Engelm.], 41.4%); (3) all dominant species showed localized patterns of very high mortality (24-100%) consistent with water stress gradients. Land managers should plan for climatic uncertainty by promoting tree recruitment in rare habitat types, alleviating unnatural levels of competition on dominant plants, and conserving sites across water stress gradients. High-stress sites, such as those we examined, have conservation value as barometers of change and because they may harbor genotypes that are adapted to climatic extremes.

Robust organelle size extractions from elastic scattering measurements of single cells (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaday, Ashley E.; Draham, Robert; Berger, Andrew J.

2016-04-01

The goal of this project is to estimate non-nuclear organelle size distributions in single cells by measuring angular scattering patterns and fitting them with Mie theory. Simulations have indicated that the large relative size distribution of organelles (mean:width≈2) leads to unstable Mie fits unless scattering is collected at polar angles less than 20 degrees. Our optical system has therefore been modified to collect angles down to 10 degrees. Initial validations will be performed on polystyrene bead populations whose size distributions resemble those of cell organelles. Unlike with the narrow bead distributions that are often used for calibration, we expect to see an order-of-magnitude improvement in the stability of the size estimates as the minimum angle decreases from 20 to 10 degrees. Scattering patterns will then be acquired and analyzed from single cells (EMT6 mouse cancer cells), both fixed and live, at multiple time points. Fixed cells, with no changes in organelle sizes over time, will be measured to determine the fluctuation level in estimated size distribution due to measurement imperfections alone. Subsequent measurements on live cells will determine whether there is a higher level of fluctuation that could be attributed to dynamic changes in organelle size. Studies on unperturbed cells are precursors to ones in which the effects of exogenous agents are monitored over time.

Tracing the First Stars with Fluctuations of the Cosmic Infrared Background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kashlinsky, A.; Arendt, R. G.; Mather, J.; Moseley, S. H.

2005-01-01

The deepest space- and ground-based observations find metal-enriched galaxies at cosmic times when the Universe was less than 1 Gyr old. These stellar populations had to be preceded by the metal-free first stars, known as 'population III'. Recent cosmic microwave background polarization measurements indicate that stars started forming early-when the Universe was 5200 Myr old. It is now thought that population III stars were significantly more massive than the present metal-rich stellar populations. Although such sources will not be individually detectable by existing or planned telescopes, they would have produced significant cosmic infrared background radiation in the near-infrared, whose fluctuations reflect the conditions in the primordial density field. Here we report a measurement of diffuse flux fluctuations after removing foreground stars and galaxies. The anisotropies exceed the instrument noise and the more local foregrounds; they can be attributed to emission from population III stars, at an era dominated by these objects.

Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

2014-09-01

There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors.

Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

PubMed Central

Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

2014-01-01

There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors. PMID:25189200

Effects of constant and fluctuating temperature on the development of the oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae).

PubMed

Chen, Z-Z; Xu, L-X; Li, L-L; Wu, H-B; Xu, Y-Y

2018-06-21

The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta, is an important pest in many commercial orchards including apple, pear and peach orchards, and responsible for substantial economic losses every year. To help in attaining a comprehensive and thorough understanding of the ecological tolerances of G. molesta, we collected life history data of individuals reared on apples under different constant temperature regimes and compared the data with moths reared under a variable outdoor temperature environment. Because G. molesta individuals reared at a constant 25°C had the heaviest pupal weight, the highest survival rate from egg to adult, highest finite rate of increase, and greatest fecundity, 25°C was considered as the optimum developmental temperature. The G. molesta population reared at a constant 31°C had the shortest development time, lowest survival rate and fecundity, resulting in population parameters of r < 0, λ < 1, lead to negative population growth. The population parameters r and λ reared under fluctuating temperature were higher than that reared under constant temperatures, the mean generation time (T) was shorter than it was in all of the constant temperatures treatments. This would imply that the outdoor G. molesta population would have a higher population growth potential and faster growth rate than indoor populations raised at constant temperatures. G. molesta moths reared under fluctuating temperature also had a higher fertility than moths reared under constant temperatures (except at 25°C). Our findings indicated that the population raised under outdoor fluctuating temperature conditions had strong environment adaptiveness.

Review of water footprint components of grain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Wan Amiza Amneera Wan; Meriam Nik Sulaiman, Nik; Zalina Mahmood, Noor

2017-06-01

Burgeoning global population, economic development, agriculture and prevailing climate pattern are among aspects contributed to water scarcity. In low and middle income countries, agriculture takes the highest share among water user sector. Demand for grain is widespread all over the globe. Hence, this study review published papers regarding quantification of water footprint of grain. Review shows there are various methods in quantifying water footprint. In ascertaining water footprint, three (green, blue, grey) or two (green, blue) components of water footprint involved. However, there was a study introduced new term in evaluating water footprint, white water footprint. The vulnerability of varying methods is difficulty in conducting comparative among water footprint. Salient source in contributing high water footprint also varies. In some studies, green water footprint play major role. Conversely, few studies found out blue water footprint most contributing component in water footprint. This fluctuate pattern influenced by various aspects, namely, regional climatic characteristics, crop yield and crop types.

Dendritic nonlinearities are tuned for efficient spike-based computations in cortical circuits.

PubMed

Ujfalussy, Balázs B; Makara, Judit K; Branco, Tiago; Lengyel, Máté

2015-12-24

Cortical neurons integrate thousands of synaptic inputs in their dendrites in highly nonlinear ways. It is unknown how these dendritic nonlinearities in individual cells contribute to computations at the level of neural circuits. Here, we show that dendritic nonlinearities are critical for the efficient integration of synaptic inputs in circuits performing analog computations with spiking neurons. We developed a theory that formalizes how a neuron's dendritic nonlinearity that is optimal for integrating synaptic inputs depends on the statistics of its presynaptic activity patterns. Based on their in vivo preynaptic population statistics (firing rates, membrane potential fluctuations, and correlations due to ensemble dynamics), our theory accurately predicted the responses of two different types of cortical pyramidal cells to patterned stimulation by two-photon glutamate uncaging. These results reveal a new computational principle underlying dendritic integration in cortical neurons by suggesting a functional link between cellular and systems--level properties of cortical circuits.

Hyperuniformity Length in Experimental Foam and Simulated Point Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chieco, Anthony; Roth, Adam; Dreyfus, Remi; Torquato, Salvatore; Durian, Douglas

2015-03-01

Systems without long-wavelength number density fluctuations are called hyperuniform (HU). The degree to which a point pattern is HU may be tested in terms of the variance in the number of points inside randomly placed boxes of side length L. If HU then the variance is due solely to fluctuations near the boundary rather than throughout the entire volume of the box. To make this concrete we introduce a hyperuniformity length h, equal to the width of the boundary where number fluctuations occur. Thus h helps characterize the disorder. We show how to deduce h from the number variance, and we do so for Poisson and Einstein patterns plus those made by the vertices and bubble centroids in 2d foams. A Poisson pattern is one where points are totally random. These are not HU and h equals L/2. We coin ``Einstein patterns'' to be where points in a lattice are independently displaced from their site by a normally distributed amount. These are HU and h equals the RMS displacement from the lattice sites. Bubble centroids and vertices are both HU. For these, h is less than L/2 and increases slower than linear in L. The centroids are more HU than the vertices, in that h that increases more slowly.

Entropy criteria applied to pattern selection in systems with free boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkaldy, J. S.

1985-10-01

The steady state differential or integral equations which describe patterned dissipative structures, typically to be identified with first order phase transformation morphologies like isothermal pearlites, are invariably degenerate in one or more order parameters (the lamellar spacing in the pearlite case). It is often observed that a different pattern is attained at the steady state for each initial condition (the hysteresis or metastable case). Alternatively, boundary perturbations and internal fluctuations during transition up to, or at the steady state, destroy the path coherence. In this case a statistical ensemble of imperfect patterns often emerges which represents a fluctuating but recognizably patterned and unique average steady state. It is cases like cellular, lamellar pearlite, involving an assembly of individual cell patterns which are regularly perturbed by local fluctuation and growth processes, which concern us here. Such weakly fluctuating nonlinear steady state ensembles can be arranged in a thought experiment so as to evolve as subsystems linking two very large mass-energy reservoirs in isolation. Operating on this discontinuous thermodynamic ideal, Onsager’s principle of maximum path probability for isolated systems, which we interpret as a minimal time correlation function connecting subsystem and baths, identifies the stable steady state at a parametric minimum or maximum (or both) in the dissipation rate. This nonlinear principle is independent of the Principle of Minimum Dissipation which is applicable in the linear regime of irreversible thermodynamics. The statistical argument is equivalent to the weak requirement that the isolated system entropy as a function of time be differentiable to the second order despite the macroscopic pattern fluctuations which occur in the subsystem. This differentiability condition is taken for granted in classical stability theory based on the 2nd Law. The optimal principle as applied to isothermal and forced velocity pearlites (in this case maximal) possesses a Le Chatelier (perturbation) Principle which can be formulated exactly via Langer’s conjecture that “each lamella must grow in a direction which is perpendicular to the solidification front”. This is the first example of such an equivalence to be experimentally and theoretically recognized in nonlinear irreversible thermodynamics. A further application to binary solidification cells is reviewed. In this case the optimum in the dissipation is a minimum and the closure between theory and experiment is excellent. Other applications in thermal-hydraulics, biology, and solid state physics are briefy described.

40 CFR 230.24 - Normal water fluctuations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... change salinity patterns, alter erosion or sedimentation rates, aggravate water temperature extremes, and... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Normal water fluctuations. 230.24... Impacts on Physical and Chemical Characteristics of the Aquatic Ecosystem § 230.24 Normal water...

Field observation of diurnal dissolved oxygen fluctuations in shallow groundwater.

PubMed

Schilling, Keith E; Jacobson, Peter

2015-01-01

Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations influence many biogeochemical processes in groundwater systems but studies of temporal variability in DO are lacking. In this study, we used an optical DO probe to measure rapid changes in concentration due to plant-groundwater interaction at an alluvial aquifer field site in Iowa. Diurnal DO concentrations were observed during mid- to late-summer when soil conditions were dry, fluctuating approximately 0.2 to 0.3 mg/L on a daily basis. DO fluctuations in groundwater were out-of-phase with diurnal water table fluctuations, increasing during the day and decreasing at night. DO consumption at night is likely due to increased soil autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration linked with patterns of carbon supply derived from daytime photosynthetic activity, and consistent with available literature on diurnal soil respiration patterns. Although more work is needed to quantify specific processes, our results indicate the potential usefulness of the new optical DO technology to reveal insights regarding many ecohydrological processes. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuichang; Wang, Xiaomei; Hammarlund, Emma U; Wang, Huajian; Costa, M Mafalda; Bjerrum, Christian J; Connelly, James N; Zhang, Baomin; Bian, Lizeng; Canfield, Donald E

2015-03-24

Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geochemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term climate fluctuations from the exceptionally well-preserved ∼1.4-billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of the Xiamaling Formation record changes in geochemistry consistent with long-term changes in the location of the Xiamaling relative to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. On shorter time scales, and within a precisely calibrated stratigraphic framework, cyclicity in sediment geochemical dynamics is consistent with orbital control. In particular, sediment geochemical fluctuations reflect what appear to be orbitally forced changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation as they influenced rates of organic carbon flux, trace metal accumulation, and the source of detrital particles to the sediment.

Nonlinear growth dynamics and the origin of fluctuating asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, J.M.; Freeman, D.C.; Graham, J.H.

1993-01-01

The nonlinear, complex nature of biosynthesis magnifies the impacts of small, random perturbations on organism growth, leading to distortions in adaptive allometries and, in particular, to fluctuating asymmetry. These distortions can be partly checked by cell-cell and inter-body part feedback during growth and development, though the latter mechanism also may lead to complex patterns in right-left asymmetry. Stress can be expected to increase the degree to which random growth perturbations are magnified and may also result in disruption of the check mechanisms, thus exaggerating fluctuating asymmetry.The processes described not only provide one explanation for the existence of fluctuating asymmetry and its augmentation under stress, but suggest additional effects of stress as well. Specifically, stress is predicted to lead to decreased fractal dimension of bone sutures and branching structures in animals, and in increased dimension of growth trace patterns such as those found in mollusc shells and fish otoliths and scales.A basic yet broad primer on fractals and chaos is provided as background for the theoretical development in this manuscript.

Within-farm variability in age structure of breeding-female pigs and reproductive performance on commercial swine breeding farms.

PubMed

Koketsu, Yuzo

2005-03-15

This study investigated relationships between herd age structure and herd productivity in breeding herds; it also investigated a pattern in parity proportions of females over 2 years and its relationship with herd productivity in commercial swine herds. This study was based on data from 148 commercial farms in North America stored in the swine database program at the University of Minnesota. The primary selection criterion was fluctuations in breeding-female pig (female) inventories over a 2-year interval. Productivity measurements and parity proportions of females were extracted from the database. A 24-month time-plot in proportions of Parity 0 and Parities 3-5 females (mid-parity) was charted for each farm. Using these charts, a change in proportions of Parity 0 and mid-parity for each farm was categorized into patterns: FLUCTUATE (Parity 0 and mid-parity proportion lines crossed) or STABLE (the two proportion lines never crossed). Higher proportions of mid-parity sows were correlated with greater pigs weaned per female per year (PWFY; P < 0.01). Farms with a FLUCTUATE (73% of the 148 farms) pattern had lower PWFY than those with a STABLE pattern (P < 0.01). The STABLE farms had higher proportions of mid-parity sows, higher parity at culling, higher frequency of gilt deliveries per year, and lower replacement rate than the FLUCTUATE farms (P < 0.01). In conclusion, maintaining stable subpopulations with mid-parity and Parity 0 are recommended to optimize herd productivity.

Rapid evolution of fire melanism in replicated populations of pygmy grasshoppers.

PubMed

Forsman, Anders; Karlsson, Magnus; Wennersten, Lena; Johansson, Jenny; Karpestam, Einat

2011-09-01

Evolutionary theory predicts an interactive process whereby spatiotemporal environmental heterogeneity will maintain genetic variation, while genetic and phenotypic diversity will buffer populations against stress and allow for fast adaptive evolution in rapidly changing environments. Here, we study color polymorphism patterns in pygmy grasshoppers (Tetrix subulata) and show that the frequency of the melanistic (black) color variant was higher in areas that had been ravaged by fires the previous year than in nonburned habitats, that, in burned areas, the frequency of melanistic grasshoppers dropped from ca. 50% one year after a fire to 30% after four years, and that the variation in frequencies of melanistic individuals among and within populations was genetically based on and represented evolutionary modifications. Dark coloration may confer a selective benefit mediated by enhanced camouflage in recently fire-ravaged areas characterized by blackened visual backgrounds before vegetation has recovered. These findings provide rare evidence for unusually large, extremely rapid adaptive contemporary evolution in replicated natural populations in response to divergent and fluctuating selection associated with spatiotemporal environmental changes. © 2011 The Author(s).

Living on the edge: Space use of Eurasian red squirrels in marginal high-elevation habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romeo, Claudia; Wauters, Lucas A.; Preatoni, Damiano; Tosi, Guido; Martinoli, Adriano

2010-11-01

In marginal habitats located at the edge of a species' range, environmental conditions are frequently extreme and individuals may be subject to different selective pressures compared to central populations. These so-called edge or marginal populations tend to have lower densities and reproductive rates than populations located in more suitable habitats, but little is known about local adaptations in spacing behavior. We studied space use and social organization in a population of Eurasian red squirrels ( Sciurus vulgaris) in a high-elevation marginal habitat of dwarf mountain pine ( Pinus mugo) and compared it with spacing patterns in high-quality Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris) forest at lower-elevation. Home ranges and core areas were larger in the marginal habitat. In both habitats, males used larger home ranges than females, but sex differences in core area size were significant only in the edge population. Patterns of core area overlap were similar in both habitats with intra-sexual territoriality among adult females and higher degrees of inter-sexual overlap, typical for the species throughout its range. However, low densities in the edge population resulted in higher female by males overlap in spring-summer, suggesting males increased home ranges and core areas during mating season to augment access to estrus females. Thus, in the marginal habitat, with low food abundance and low population densities, linked with extreme winter conditions, squirrels, especially males, used large home ranges. Finally, squirrels responded more strongly to variation in food availability (inverse relation between home range size and seed abundance), and even to fluctuations in density (inverse relation between core area size and density of animals of the same sex), in the marginal than in the high-quality habitat, suggesting high behavioral plasticity to respond to the ecological constraints in marginal habitats.

The role of the circadian system in fractal neurophysiological control

PubMed Central

Pittman-Polletta, Benjamin R.; Scheer, Frank A.J.L.; Butler, Matthew P.; Shea, Steven A.; Hu, Kun

2013-01-01

Many neurophysiological variables such as heart rate, motor activity, and neural activity are known to exhibit intrinsic fractal fluctuations - similar temporal fluctuation patterns at different time scales. These fractal patterns contain information about health, as many pathological conditions are accompanied by their alteration or absence. In physical systems, such fluctuations are characteristic of critical states on the border between randomness and order, frequently arising from nonlinear feedback interactions between mechanisms operating on multiple scales. Thus, the existence of fractal fluctuations in physiology challenges traditional conceptions of health and disease, suggesting that high levels of integrity and adaptability are marked by complex variability, not constancy, and are properties of a neurophysiological network, not individual components. Despite the subject's theoretical and clinical interest, the neurophysiological mechanisms underlying fractal regulation remain largely unknown. The recent discovery that the circadian pacemaker (suprachiasmatic nucleus) plays a crucial role in generating fractal patterns in motor activity and heart rate sheds an entirely new light on both fractal control networks and the function of this master circadian clock, and builds a bridge between the fields of circadian biology and fractal physiology. In this review, we sketch the emerging picture of the developing interdisciplinary field of fractal neurophysiology by examining the circadian system’s role in fractal regulation. PMID:23573942

Analysis of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market in different periods-Based on time series network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Yang; Sun, Mei; Gao, Cuixia; Han, Dun; Li, Xiuming

2018-02-01

This paper studies the influence of Brent oil price fluctuations on the stock prices of China's two distinct blocks, namely, the petrochemical block and the electric equipment and new energy block, applying the Shannon entropy of information theory. The co-movement trend of crude oil price and stock prices is divided into different fluctuation patterns with the coarse-graining method. Then, the bivariate time series network model is established for the two blocks stock in five different periods. By joint analysis of the network-oriented metrics, the key modes and underlying evolutionary mechanisms were identified. The results show that the both networks have different fluctuation characteristics in different periods. Their co-movement patterns are clustered in some key modes and conversion intermediaries. The study not only reveals the lag effect of crude oil price fluctuations on the stock in Chinese industry blocks but also verifies the necessity of research on special periods, and suggests that the government should use different energy policies to stabilize market volatility in different periods. A new way is provided to study the unidirectional influence between multiple variables or complex time series.

Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim

We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

Changes in population characteristics and their implication on public health research.

PubMed

Du, Ping; Coles, F Bruce; O'Campo, Patricia; McNutt, Louise-Anne

2007-07-10

Population estimates are generally drawn from one point in time to study disease trends over time; changes in population characteristics over time are usually not assessed and included in the study design. We evaluated whether population characteristics remained static and assessed the degree of population shifts over time. The analysis was based on the New York State 1990 and 2000 census data with adjustments for changes in geographic boundaries. Differences in census tract information were quantified by calculating the mean, median, standard deviation, and the percent of change for each population characteristic. Between 1990 and 2000, positive and negative fluctuations in population size created a U-shaped bimodal pattern of population change which increased the disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status for many census tracts. While 268 (10%) census tracts contracted by 10%, twice as many census tracts (21%, N = 557) grew at least 10%. Notably, the non-Hispanic African-American population grew 10% or more in 152 tracts. Although there were overall reductions in working class and undereducated populations and gains in incomes, most census tracts experienced growing income inequalities and an increased poverty rate. These changes were most pronounced in urban census tracts. Differences in population characteristics in a decade showed growing disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status. This study elucidates that important population shifts should be taken into account when conducting longitudinal research.

Changes in population characteristics and their implication on public health research

PubMed Central

Du, Ping; Coles, F Bruce; O'Campo, Patricia; McNutt, Louise-Anne

2007-01-01

Population estimates are generally drawn from one point in time to study disease trends over time; changes in population characteristics over time are usually not assessed and included in the study design. We evaluated whether population characteristics remained static and assessed the degree of population shifts over time. The analysis was based on the New York State 1990 and 2000 census data with adjustments for changes in geographic boundaries. Differences in census tract information were quantified by calculating the mean, median, standard deviation, and the percent of change for each population characteristic. Between 1990 and 2000, positive and negative fluctuations in population size created a U-shaped bimodal pattern of population change which increased the disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status for many census tracts. While 268 (10%) census tracts contracted by 10%, twice as many census tracts (21%, N = 557) grew at least 10%. Notably, the non-Hispanic African-American population grew 10% or more in 152 tracts. Although there were overall reductions in working class and undereducated populations and gains in incomes, most census tracts experienced growing income inequalities and an increased poverty rate. These changes were most pronounced in urban census tracts. Differences in population characteristics in a decade showed growing disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status. This study elucidates that important population shifts should be taken into account when conducting longitudinal research. PMID:17623097

New Mitochondrial and Nuclear Evidences Support Recent Demographic Expansion and an Atypical Phylogeographic Pattern in the Spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (Hemiptera, Aphrophoridae)

PubMed Central

Rodrigues, Ana S. B.; Silva, Sara E.; Marabuto, Eduardo; Silva, Diogo N.; Wilson, Mike R.; Thompson, Vinton; Yurtsever, Selçuk; Halkka, Antti; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Quartau, José A.; Paulo, Octávio S.; Seabra, Sofia G.

2014-01-01

Philaenus spumarius is a widespread insect species in the Holarctic region. Here, by focusing on the mtDNA gene COI but also using the COII and Cyt b genes and the nuclear gene EF-1α, we tried to explain how and when its current biogeographic pattern evolved by providing time estimates of the main demographic and evolutionary events and investigating its colonization patterns in and out of Eurasia. Evidence of recent divergence and expansion events at less than 0.5 Ma ago indicate that climate fluctuations in the Mid-Late Pleistocene were important in shaping the current phylogeographic pattern of the species. Data support a first split and differentiation of P. spumarius into two main mitochondrial lineages: the “western”, in the Mediterranean region and the “eastern”, in Anatolia/Caucasus. It also supports a following differentiation of the “western” lineage into two sub-lineages: the “western-Mediterranean”, in Iberia and the “eastern-Mediterranean” in the Balkans. The recent pattern seems to result from postglacial range expansion from Iberia and Caucasus/Anatolia, thus not following one of the four common paradigms. Unexpected patterns of recent gene-flow events between Mediterranean peninsulas, a close relationship between Iberia and North Africa, as well as high levels of genetic diversity being maintained in northern Europe were found. The mitochondrial pattern does not exactly match to the nuclear pattern suggesting that the current biogeographic pattern of P. spumarius may be the result of both secondary admixture and incomplete lineage sorting. The hypothesis of recent colonization of North America from both western and northern Europe is corroborated by our data and probably resulted from accidental human translocations. A probable British origin for the populations of the Azores and New Zealand was revealed, however, for the Azores the distribution of populations in high altitude native forests is somewhat puzzling and may imply a natural colonization of the archipelago. PMID:24892429

Sex-specific ecophysiological responses to environmental fluctuations of free-ranging Hermann's tortoises: implication for conservation.

PubMed

Sibeaux, Adélaïde; Michel, Catherine Louise; Bonnet, Xavier; Caron, Sébastien; Fournière, Kévin; Gagno, Stephane; Ballouard, Jean-Marie

2016-01-01

Physiological parameters provide indicators to evaluate how organisms respond to conservation actions. For example, individuals translocated during reinforcement programmes may not adapt to their novel host environment and may exhibit elevated chronic levels of stress hormones and/or decreasing body condition. Conversely, successful conservation actions should be associated with a lack of detrimental physiological perturbation. However, physiological references fluctuate over time and are influenced by various factors (e.g. sex, age, reproductive status). It is therefore necessary to determine the range of natural variations of the selected physiological metrics to establish useful baselines. This study focuses on endangered free-ranging Hermann's tortoises ( Testudo hermanni hermanni ), where conservation actions have been preconized to prevent extinction of French mainland populations. The influence of sex and of environmental factors (site, year and season) on eight physiological parameters (e.g. body condition, corticosterone concentrations) was assessed in 82 individuals from two populations living in different habitats. Daily displacements were monitored by radio-tracking. Most parameters varied between years and seasons and exhibited contrasting sex patterns but with no or limited effect of site. By combining behavioural and physiological traits, this study provides sex-specific seasonal baselines that can be used to monitor the health status of Hermann's tortoises facing environmental threats (e.g. habitat changes) or during conservation actions (e.g. translocation). These results might also assist in selection of the appropriate season for translocation.

Origin of information-limiting noise correlations

PubMed Central

Kanitscheider, Ingmar; Coen-Cagli, Ruben; Pouget, Alexandre

2015-01-01

The ability to discriminate between similar sensory stimuli relies on the amount of information encoded in sensory neuronal populations. Such information can be substantially reduced by correlated trial-to-trial variability. Noise correlations have been measured across a wide range of areas in the brain, but their origin is still far from clear. Here we show analytically and with simulations that optimal computation on inputs with limited information creates patterns of noise correlations that account for a broad range of experimental observations while at same time causing information to saturate in large neural populations. With the example of a network of V1 neurons extracting orientation from a noisy image, we illustrate to our knowledge the first generative model of noise correlations that is consistent both with neurophysiology and with behavioral thresholds, without invoking suboptimal encoding or decoding or internal sources of variability such as stochastic network dynamics or cortical state fluctuations. We further show that when information is limited at the input, both suboptimal connectivity and internal fluctuations could similarly reduce the asymptotic information, but they have qualitatively different effects on correlations leading to specific experimental predictions. Our study indicates that noise at the sensory periphery could have a major effect on cortical representations in widely studied discrimination tasks. It also provides an analytical framework to understand the functional relevance of different sources of experimentally measured correlations. PMID:26621747

Developmental instability and fitness in Periploca laevigata experiencing grazing disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alados, C.L.; Giner, M.L.; Dehesa, L.; Escos, J.; Barroso, F.; Emlen, J.M.; Freeman, D.C.

2002-01-01

We investigated the sensitivity of developmental instability measurements (leaf fluctuating asymmetry, floral radial asymmetry, and shoot translational asymmetry) to a long‐standing natural stress (grazing) in a palatable tannin‐producing shrub (Periploca laevigata Aiton). We also assessed the relationship between these measures of developmental instability and fitness components (growth and floral production). Developmental instability, measured by translational asymmetry, was the most accurate estimator of a plant’s condition and, consequently, environmental stress. Plants with less translational asymmetry grew more and produced more flowers. Plants from the medium‐grazed population were developmentally more stable, as estimated by translational and floral asymmetry, than either more heavily or more lightly grazed populations. Leaf fluctuating asymmetry was positively correlated with tannin concentration. The pattern of internode growth also responded to grazing impact. Plants under medium to heavy grazing pressure accelerated early growth and consequently escaped herbivory later in the season, i.e., at the beginning of the spring, when grazing activity was concentrated in herbaceous plants. Periploca laevigata accelerated growth and finished growing sooner than in the other grazing treatment. Thus, its annual growth was more mature and less palatable later in the season when grazers typically concentrate on shrubs. The reduction of developmental instability under medium grazing is interpreted as a direct effect of grazing and not as the release from competition.

Strain Pattern in Supercooled Liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illing, Bernd; Fritschi, Sebastian; Hajnal, David; Klix, Christian; Keim, Peter; Fuchs, Matthias

2016-11-01

Investigations of strain correlations at the glass transition reveal unexpected phenomena. The shear strain fluctuations show an Eshelby-strain pattern [˜cos (4 θ ) /r2 ], characteristic of elastic response, even in liquids, at long times. We address this using a mode-coupling theory for the strain fluctuations in supercooled liquids and data from both video microscopy of a two-dimensional colloidal glass former and simulations of Brownian hard disks. We show that the long-ranged and long-lived strain signatures follow a scaling law valid close to the glass transition. For large enough viscosities, the Eshelby-strain pattern is visible even on time scales longer than the structural relaxation time τ and after the shear modulus has relaxed to zero.

Dynamic phases, pinning, and pattern formation for driven dislocation assemblies

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Caizhi; Reichhardt, Charles; Olson Reichhardt, Cynthia J.; ...

2015-01-23

We examine driven dislocation assemblies and show that they can exhibit a set of dynamical phases remarkably similar to those of driven systems with quenched disorder such as vortices in superconductors, magnetic domain walls, and charge density wave materials. These phases include pinned-jammed, fluctuating, and dynamically ordered states, and each produces distinct dislocation patterns as well as specific features in the noise fluctuations and transport properties. Lastly, our work suggests that many of the results established for systems with quenched disorder undergoing plastic depinning transitions can be applied to dislocation systems, providing a new approach for understanding pattern formation andmore » dynamics in these systems.« less

Micro-flock patterns and macro-clusters in chiral active Brownian disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levis, Demian; Liebchen, Benno

2018-02-01

Chiral active particles (or self-propelled circle swimmers) feature a rich collective behavior, comprising rotating macro-clusters and micro-flock patterns which consist of phase-synchronized rotating clusters with a characteristic self-limited size. These patterns emerge from the competition of alignment interactions and rotations suggesting that they might occur generically in many chiral active matter systems. However, although excluded volume interactions occur naturally among typical circle swimmers, it is not yet clear if macro-clusters and micro-flock patterns survive their presence. The present work shows that both types of pattern do survive but feature strongly enhance fluctuations regarding the size and shape of the individual clusters. Despite these fluctuations, we find that the average micro-flock size still follows the same characteristic scaling law as in the absence of excluded volume interactions, i.e. micro-flock sizes scale linearly with the single-swimmer radius.

Nonlinear response in runoff magnitude to fluctuating rain patterns.

PubMed

Curtu, R; Fonley, M

2015-03-01

The runoff coefficient of a hillslope is a reliable measure for changes in the streamflow response at the river link outlet. A high runoff coefficient is a good indicator of the possibility of flash floods. Although the relationship between runoff coefficient and streamflow has been the subject of much study, the physical mechanisms affecting runoff coefficient including the dependence on precipitation pattern remain open topics for investigation. In this paper, we analyze a rainfall-runoff model at the hillslope scale as that hillslope is forced with different rain patterns: constant rain and fluctuating rain with different frequencies and amplitudes. When an oscillatory precipitation pattern is applied, although the same amount of water may enter the system, its response (measured by the runoff coefficient) will be maximum for a certain frequency of precipitation. The significant increase in runoff coefficient after a certain pattern of rainfall can be a potential explanation for the conditions preceding flash-floods.

Complex small pelagic fish population patterns arising from individual behavioral responses to their environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brochier, Timothée; Auger, Pierre-Amaël; Pecquerie, Laure; Machu, Eric; Capet, Xavier; Thiaw, Modou; Mbaye, Baye Cheikh; Braham, Cheikh-Baye; Ettahiri, Omar; Charouki, Najib; Sène, Ousseynou Ndaw; Werner, Francisco; Brehmer, Patrice

2018-05-01

Small pelagic fish (SPF) species are heavily exploited in eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) as their transformation products are increasingly used in the world's food chain. Management relies on regular monitoring, but there is a lack of robust theories for the emergence of the populations' traits and their evolution in highly variable environments. This work aims to address existing knowledge gaps by combining physical and biogeochemical modelling with an individual life-cycle based model applied to round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) off northwest Africa, a key species for regional food security. Our approach focused on the processes responsible for seasonal migrations, spatio-temporal size-structure, and interannual biomass fluctuations. Emergence of preferred habitat resulted from interactions between natal homing behavior and environmental variability that impacts early life stages. Exploration of the environment by the fishes was determined by swimming capabilities, mesoscale to regional habitat structure, and horizontal currents. Fish spatio-temporal abundance variability emerged from a complex combination of distinct life-history traits. An alongshore gradient in fish size distributions is reported and validated by in situ measurements. New insights into population structure are provided, within an area where the species is abundant year-round (Mauritania) and with latitudinal migrations of variable (300-1200 km) amplitude. Interannual biomass fluctuations were linked to modulations of fish recruitment over the Sahara Bank driven by variability in alongshore current intensity. The identified processes constitute an analytical framework that can be implemented in other EBUS and used to explore impacts of regional climate change on SPF.

[Epidemiological pattern of scarlet fever in recent years].

PubMed

Briko, N I; Filatov, N N; Zhuravlev, M V; Lytkina, I N; Ezhlova, E B; Brazhnikov, A Iu; Tsapkova, N N; Malyshev, N A

2003-01-01

During the period of 1953-2001 scarlet fever morbidity level fluctuated from 670.3 to 65.9 per 100,000 of the population in Moscow and from 531.9 to 35.0 per 100,000 of the population of the Russian Federation. In recent years an increased morbidity was more pronounced in Moscow than in the Russian Federation as a whole. Children formed the greater part of scarlet fever patients, the cases of scarlet fever among children in Moscow occurring more often than, on the average, in Russia. As before, annual morbidity among children attending children's institutions was higher 3- to 4-fold than among children brought up at home. This difference was most sharply pronounced among young children during the first two years of their life. In contrast to morbidity observed during previous 20-30 years, a drop in morbidity among children during the first two years of their life was registered, while morbidity level among children aged 3-6 years and 7-14 years increased. Scarlet fever morbidity had a pronounced seasonal (autumn-winter) pattern. In a group of children aged 3-5 years who attended organized groups, on the average, 78.6% of scarlet fever cases fell on seasonal morbidity, the most prolonged one.

Effect of oxygen minimum zone formation on communities of marine protists.

PubMed

Orsi, William; Song, Young C; Hallam, Steven; Edgcomb, Virginia

2012-08-01

Changes in ocean temperature and circulation patterns compounded by human activities are leading to oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) expansion with concomitant alteration in nutrient and climate active trace gas cycling. Here, we report the response of microbial eukaryote populations to seasonal changes in water column oxygen-deficiency using Saanich Inlet, a seasonally anoxic fjord on the coast of Vancouver Island British Columbia, as a model ecosystem. We combine small subunit ribosomal RNA gene sequencing approaches with multivariate statistical methods to reveal shifts in operational taxonomic units during successive stages of seasonal stratification and renewal. A meta-analysis is used to identify common and unique patterns of community composition between Saanich Inlet and the anoxic/sulfidic Cariaco Basin (Venezuela) and Framvaren Fjord (Norway) to show shared and unique responses of microbial eukaryotes to oxygen and sulfide in these three environments. Our analyses also reveal temporal fluctuations in rare populations of microbial eukaryotes, particularly anaerobic ciliates, that may be of significant importance to the biogeochemical cycling of methane in OMZs. Eukaryotic 18S rRNA gene sequences recovered from the Saanich Inlet water column on were deposited in Genbank under accession numbers HQ864863–HQ871151.

Day-to-Day Population Movement and the Management of Dengue Epidemics.

PubMed

Falcón-Lezama, Jorge A; Martínez-Vega, Ruth A; Kuri-Morales, Pablo A; Ramos-Castañeda, José; Adams, Ben

2016-10-01

Dengue is a growing public health problem in tropical and subtropical cities. It is transmitted by mosquitoes, and the main strategy for epidemic prevention and control is insecticide fumigation. Effective management is, however, proving elusive. People's day-to-day movement about the city is believed to be an important factor in the epidemiological dynamics. We use a simple model to examine the fundamental roles of broad demographic and spatial structures in epidemic initiation, growth and control. We show that the key factors are local dilution, characterised by the vector-host ratio, and spatial connectivity, characterised by the extent of habitually variable movement patterns. Epidemic risk in the population is driven by the demographic groups that frequent the areas with the highest vector-host ratio, even if they only spend some of their time there. Synchronisation of epidemic trajectories in different demographic groups is governed by the vector-host ratios to which they are exposed and the strength of connectivity. Strategies for epidemic prevention and management may be made more effective if they take into account the fluctuating landscape of transmission intensity associated with spatial heterogeneity in the vector-host ratio and people's day-to-day movement patterns.

The geography of spatial synchrony.

PubMed

Walter, Jonathan A; Sheppard, Lawrence W; Anderson, Thomas L; Kastens, Jude H; Bjørnstad, Ottar N; Liebhold, Andrew M; Reuman, Daniel C

2017-07-01

Spatial synchrony, defined as correlated temporal fluctuations among populations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of synchrony remain poorly understood. Few studies have examined detailed geographical patterns of synchrony; instead most focus on how synchrony declines with increasing linear distance between locations, making the simplifying assumption that distance decay is isotropic. By synthesising and extending prior work, we show how geography of synchrony, a term which we use to refer to detailed spatial variation in patterns of synchrony, can be leveraged to understand ecological processes including identification of drivers of synchrony, a long-standing challenge. We focus on three main objectives: (1) showing conceptually and theoretically four mechanisms that can generate geographies of synchrony; (2) documenting complex and pronounced geographies of synchrony in two important study systems; and (3) demonstrating a variety of methods capable of revealing the geography of synchrony and, through it, underlying organism ecology. For example, we introduce a new type of network, the synchrony network, the structure of which provides ecological insight. By documenting the importance of geographies of synchrony, advancing conceptual frameworks, and demonstrating powerful methods, we aim to help elevate the geography of synchrony into a mainstream area of study and application. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Sequence selection by dynamical symmetry breaking in an autocatalytic binary polymer model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellermann, Harold; Tanaka, Shinpei; Rasmussen, Steen

2017-12-01

Template-directed replication of nucleic acids is at the essence of all living beings and a major milestone for any origin of life scenario. We present an idealized model of prebiotic sequence replication, where binary polymers act as templates for their autocatalytic replication, thereby serving as each others reactants and products in an intertwined molecular ecology. Our model demonstrates how autocatalysis alters the qualitative and quantitative system dynamics in counterintuitive ways. Most notably, numerical simulations reveal a very strong intrinsic selection mechanism that favors the appearance of a few population structures with highly ordered and repetitive sequence patterns when starting from a pool of monomers. We demonstrate both analytically and through simulation how this "selection of the dullest" is caused by continued symmetry breaking through random fluctuations in the transient dynamics that are amplified by autocatalysis and eventually propagate to the population level. The impact of these observations on related prebiotic mathematical models is discussed.

Species sorting, apparent neutrality and lasting priority effects: palaeoecological lessons from an inherently dynamic natural ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mergeay, J.; De Meester, L.; Verschuren, D.

2009-04-01

To assess the influence of long-term temporal processes in community assembly, we reconstructed the community changes of two dominant components of freshwater food webs, planktonic Daphnia water fleas and benthic chironomid midge larvae, in a fluctuating tropical lake through eight cycles of major lake-level fluctuation spanning 1800 years. Our results show a highly unpredictable pattern of community assembly in Daphnia, akin to neutrality, but largely dictated by long-lasting priority effects. These priority effects were likely caused by rapid population growth of resident species during lake refilling from a standing stock in a deep crater refuge, thereby pre-empting niche space for new immigrants. Contrastingly, chironomid larvae showed a more classical species sorting response to long-term environmental change, with more limited contribution of stochastic temporal processes. Overall our study emphasizes the importance of temporal processes and niche pre-emption in metacommunity ecology, and suggests a important role for mass effects in time. It also emphasizes the value of paleoecological research to improve understanding of ecological processes in natural ecosystems.

Breathing as a Fundamental Rhythm of Brain Function.

PubMed

Heck, Detlef H; McAfee, Samuel S; Liu, Yu; Babajani-Feremi, Abbas; Rezaie, Roozbeh; Freeman, Walter J; Wheless, James W; Papanicolaou, Andrew C; Ruszinkó, Miklós; Sokolov, Yury; Kozma, Robert

2016-01-01

Ongoing fluctuations of neuronal activity have long been considered intrinsic noise that introduces unavoidable and unwanted variability into neuronal processing, which the brain eliminates by averaging across population activity (Georgopoulos et al., 1986; Lee et al., 1988; Shadlen and Newsome, 1994; Maynard et al., 1999). It is now understood, that the seemingly random fluctuations of cortical activity form highly structured patterns, including oscillations at various frequencies, that modulate evoked neuronal responses (Arieli et al., 1996; Poulet and Petersen, 2008; He, 2013) and affect sensory perception (Linkenkaer-Hansen et al., 2004; Boly et al., 2007; Sadaghiani et al., 2009; Vinnik et al., 2012; Palva et al., 2013). Ongoing cortical activity is driven by proprioceptive and interoceptive inputs. In addition, it is partially intrinsically generated in which case it may be related to mental processes (Fox and Raichle, 2007; Deco et al., 2011). Here we argue that respiration, via multiple sensory pathways, contributes a rhythmic component to the ongoing cortical activity. We suggest that this rhythmic activity modulates the temporal organization of cortical neurodynamics, thereby linking higher cortical functions to the process of breathing.

Spatial and temporal determinants of genetic structure in Gentianella bohemica

PubMed Central

Königer, Julia; Rebernig, Carolin A; Brabec, Jiří; Kiehl, Kathrin; Greimler, Josef

2012-01-01

The biennial plant Gentianella bohemica is a subendemic of the Bohemian Massif, where it occurs in seminatural grasslands. It has become rare in recent decades as a result of profound changes in land use. Using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) fingerprint data, we investigated the genetic structure within and among populations of G. bohemica in Bavaria, the Czech Republic, and the Austrian border region. The aim of our study was (1) to analyze the genetic structure among populations and to discuss these findings in the context of present and historical patterns of connectivity and isolation of populations, (2) to analyze genetic structure among consecutive generations (cohorts of two consecutive years), and (3) to investigate relationships between intrapopulational diversity and effective population size (Ne) as well as plant traits. (1) The German populations were strongly isolated from each other (pairwise FST= 0.29–0.60) and from all other populations (FST= 0.24–0.49). We found a pattern of near panmixis among the latter (FST= 0.15–0.35) with geographical distance explaining only 8% of the genetic variance. These results were congruent with a principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and analysis using STRUCTURE to identify genetically coherent groups. These findings are in line with the strong physical barrier and historical constraints, resulting in separation of the German populations from the others. (2) We found pronounced genetic differences between consecutive cohorts of the German populations (pairwise FST= 0.23 and 0.31), which can be explained by local population history (land use, disturbance). (3) Genetic diversity within populations (Shannon index, HSh) was significantly correlated with Ne (RS= 0.733) and reflected a loss of diversity due to several demographic bottlenecks. Overall, we found that the genetic structure in G. bohemica is strongly influenced by historical periods of high connectivity and isolation as well as by marked demographic fluctuations in declining populations. PMID:22822440

Cosmic Infrared Background Fluctuations in Deep Spitzer Infrared Array Camera Images: Data Processing and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arendt, Richard; Kashlinsky, A.; Moseley, S.; Mather, J.

2010-01-01

This paper provides a detailed description of the data reduction and analysis procedures that have been employed in our previous studies of spatial fluctuation of the cosmic infrared background (CIB) using deep Spitzer Infrared Array Camera observations. The self-calibration we apply removes a strong instrumental signal from the fluctuations that would otherwise corrupt the results. The procedures and results for masking bright sources and modeling faint sources down to levels set by the instrumental noise are presented. Various tests are performed to demonstrate that the resulting power spectra of these fields are not dominated by instrumental or procedural effects. These tests indicate that the large-scale ([greater, similar]30') fluctuations that remain in the deepest fields are not directly related to the galaxies that are bright enough to be individually detected. We provide the parameterization of these power spectra in terms of separate instrument noise, shot noise, and power-law components. We discuss the relationship between fluctuations measured at different wavelengths and depths, and the relations between constraints on the mean intensity of the CIB and its fluctuation spectrum. Consistent with growing evidence that the [approx]1-5 [mu]m mean intensity of the CIB may not be as far above the integrated emission of resolved galaxies as has been reported in some analyses of DIRBE and IRTS observations, our measurements of spatial fluctuations of the CIB intensity indicate the mean emission from the objects producing the fluctuations is quite low ([greater, similar]1 nW m-2 sr-1 at 3-5 [mu]m), and thus consistent with current [gamma]-ray absorption constraints. The source of the fluctuations may be high-z Population III objects, or a more local component of very low luminosity objects with clustering properties that differ from the resolved galaxies. Finally, we discuss the prospects of the upcoming space-based surveys to directly measure the epochs inhabited by the populations producing these source-subtracted CIB fluctuations, and to isolate the individual fluxes of these populations.

Lumpy species coexistence arises robustly in fluctuating resource environments.

PubMed

Sakavara, Athanasia; Tsirtsis, George; Roelke, Daniel L; Mancy, Rebecca; Spatharis, Sofie

2018-01-23

The effect of life-history traits on resource competition outcomes is well understood in the context of a constant resource supply. However, almost all natural systems are subject to fluctuations of resources driven by cyclical processes such as seasonality and tidal hydrology. To understand community composition, it is therefore imperative to study the impact of resource fluctuations on interspecies competition. We adapted a well-established resource-competition model to show that fluctuations in inflow concentrations of two limiting resources lead to the survival of species in clumps along the trait axis, consistent with observations of "lumpy coexistence" [Scheffer M, van Nes EH (2006) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:6230-6235]. A complex dynamic pattern in the available ambient resources arose very early in the self-organization process and dictated the locations of clumps along the trait axis by creating niches that promoted the growth of species with specific traits. This dynamic pattern emerged as the combined result of fluctuations in the inflow of resources and their consumption by the most competitive species that accumulated the bulk of biomass early in assemblage organization. Clumps emerged robustly across a range of periodicities, phase differences, and amplitudes. Given the ubiquity in the real world of asynchronous fluctuations of limiting resources, our findings imply that assemblage organization in clumps should be a common feature in nature. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus in Pacific Northwest salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breyta, Rachel; Black, Allison; Kaufman, John; Kurath, Gael

2016-01-01

The aquatic rhaboviral pathogen infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) causes acute disease in juvenile fish of a number of populations of Pacific salmonid species. Heavily managed in both marine and freshwater environments, these fish species are cultured during the juvenile stage in freshwater conservation hatcheries, where IHNV is one of the top three infectious diseases that cause serious morbidity and mortality. Therefore, a comprehensive study of viral genetic surveillance data representing 2590 field isolates collected between 1958 and 2014 was conducted to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of IHNV in the Pacific Northwest of the contiguous United States. Prevalence of infection varied over time, fluctuating over a rough 5–7 year cycle. The genetic analysis revealed numerous subgroups of IHNV, each of which exhibited spatial heterogeneity. Within all subgroups, dominant genetic types were apparent, though the temporal patterns of emergence of these types varied among subgroups. Finally, the affinity or fidelity of subgroups to specific host species also varied, where UC subgroup viruses exhibited a more generalist profile and all other subgroups exhibited a specialist profile. These complex patterns are likely synergistically driven by numerous ecological, pathobiological, and anthropogenic factors. Since only a few anthropogenic factors are candidates for managed intervention aimed at improving the health of threatened or endangered salmonid fish populations, determining the relative impact of these factors is a high priority for future studies.

The dynamics of social networks among female Asian elephants

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Patterns in the association of individuals can shed light on the underlying conditions and processes that shape societies. Here we characterize patterns of association in a population of wild Asian Elephants at Uda Walawe National Park in Sri Lanka. We observed 286 individually-identified adult female elephants over 20 months and examined their social dynamics at three levels of organization: pairs of individuals (dyads), small sets of direct companions (ego-networks), and the population level (complete networks). Results Corroborating previous studies of this and other Asian elephant populations, we find that the sizes of elephant groups observed in the field on any particular day are typically small and that rates of association are low. In contrast to earlier studies, our longitudinal observations reveal that individuals form larger social units that can be remarkably stable across years while associations among such units change across seasons. Association rates tend to peak in dry seasons as opposed to wet seasons, with some cyclicity at the level of dyads. In addition, we find that individuals vary substantially in their fidelity to companions. At the ego-network level, we find that despite these fluctuations, individuals associate with a pool of long-term companions. At the population level, social networks do not exhibit any clear seasonal structure or hierarchical stratification. Conclusions This detailed longitudinal study reveals different social dynamics at different levels of organization. Taken together, these results demonstrate that low association rates, seemingly small group sizes, and fission-fusion grouping behavior mask hidden stability in the extensive and fluid social affiliations in this population of Asian elephants. PMID:21794147

Fitness consequences of avian personalities in a fluctuating environment.

PubMed Central

Dingemanse, Niels J.; Both, Christiaan; Drent, Piet J.; Tinbergen, Joost M.

2004-01-01

Individual animals differ in the way they cope with challenges in their environment, comparable with variation in human personalities. The proximate basis of variation in personality traits has received considerable attention, and one general finding is that personality traits have a substantial genetic basis. This poses the question of how variation in personality is maintained in natural populations. We show that selection on a personality trait with high heritability fluctuates across years within a natural bird population. Annual adult survival was related to this personality trait (behaviour in novel environments) but the effects were always opposite for males and females, and reversed between years. The number of offspring surviving to breeding was also related to their parents' personalities, and again selection changed between years. The observed annual changes in selection pressures coincided with changes in environmental conditions (masting of beeches) that affect the competitive regimes of the birds. We expect that the observed fluctuations in environmental factors lead to fluctuations in competition for space and food, and these, in association with variations in population density, lead to a variation in selection pressure, which maintains genetic variation in personalities. PMID:15255104

The Impact of Different Sources of Fluctuations on Mutual Information in Biochemical Networks

PubMed Central

Chevalier, Michael; Venturelli, Ophelia; El-Samad, Hana

2015-01-01

Stochastic fluctuations in signaling and gene expression limit the ability of cells to sense the state of their environment, transfer this information along cellular pathways, and respond to it with high precision. Mutual information is now often used to quantify the fidelity with which information is transmitted along a cellular pathway. Mutual information calculations from experimental data have mostly generated low values, suggesting that cells might have relatively low signal transmission fidelity. In this work, we demonstrate that mutual information calculations might be artificially lowered by cell-to-cell variability in both initial conditions and slowly fluctuating global factors across the population. We carry out our analysis computationally using a simple signaling pathway and demonstrate that in the presence of slow global fluctuations, every cell might have its own high information transmission capacity but that population averaging underestimates this value. We also construct a simple synthetic transcriptional network and demonstrate using experimental measurements coupled to computational modeling that its operation is dominated by slow global variability, and hence that its mutual information is underestimated by a population averaged calculation. PMID:26484538

Population waves and fertility fluctuations: social security implications.

PubMed

Boyle, P P; Freedman, R

1985-01-01

Based on Canadian data, this study discusses some of the methods which incorporate fertility variations into population forecasts. In particular, the relative shifts in the age structure which can have profound social and economic consequences on the context of a pay as you go national security system are analyzed. In terms of long range economic and social planning, oscillating growth projections are much more difficult to handle and plan for than the constant growth rates predicted by stable population theories. The impact of different types of fertility fluctuations are analyzed in terms of evolution of the dependency ration over time; the dependency ratio corresponds to the ratio of the retired lives of a population to those of the working age population. From the viewpoint of a social security system, the evolution of the dependency ratio over time is of particular importance. Other areas explored are: 1) cohort fertility variations; 2) periodic fertility fluctuations; and 3) limit cycle behaviors. In the context of a national social security plan, one possible response to the population projections would be to maintain the year by year level of the RA ratio (ratio of the population aged 65 and over to the population aged between 20 and 65) at its equilibrium value of 27.6% by adjusting the retirement age appropriately.

Effects of population density on corticosterone levels of prairie voles in the field

PubMed Central

Blondel, Dimitri V.; Wallace, Gerard N.; Calderone, Stefanie; Gorinshteyn, Marija; St. Mary, Colette M.; Phelps, Steven M.

2015-01-01

High population density is often associated with increased levels of stress-related hormones, such as corticosterone (CORT). Prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) are a socially monogamous species known for their large population density fluctuations in the wild. Although CORT influences the social behavior of prairie voles in the lab, the effect of population density on CORT has not previously been quantified in this species in the field. We validated a non-invasive hormone assay for measuring CORT metabolites in prairie vole feces. We then used semi-natural enclosures to experimentally manipulate population density, and measured density effects on male space use and fecal CORT levels. Our enclosures generated patterns of space use and social interaction that were consistent with previous prairie vole field studies. Contrary to the positive relationship between CORT and density typical of other taxa, we found that lower population densities (80 animals/ha) produced higher fecal CORT than high densities (240/ha). Combined with prior work in the lab and field, the data suggest that high prairie vole population densities indicate favorable environments, perhaps through reduced predation risk. Lastly, we found that field animals had lower fecal CORT levels than laboratory-living animals. The data emphasize the usefulness of prairie voles as models for integrating ecological, evolutionary and mechanistic questions in social behavior. PMID:26342968

Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.

PubMed

Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George

2017-03-01

Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).

Urbanization disrupts latitude-size rule in 17-year cicadas.

PubMed

Beasley, DeAnna E; Penick, Clint A; Boateng, Nana S; Menninger, Holly L; Dunn, Robert R

2018-03-01

Many ectotherms show a decrease in body size with increasing latitude due to changes in climate, a pattern termed converse Bergmann's rule. Urban conditions-particularly warmer temperatures and fragmented landscapes-may impose stresses on development that could disrupt these body size patterns. To test the impact of urbanization on development and latitudinal trends in body size, we launched a citizen science project to collect periodical cicadas ( Magicicada septendecim ) from across their latitudinal range during the 2013 emergence of Brood II. Periodical cicadas are long-lived insects whose distribution spans a broad latitudinal range covering both urban and rural habitats. We used a geometric morphometric approach to assess body size and developmental stress based on fluctuating asymmetry in wing shape. Body size of rural cicadas followed converse Bergmann's rule, but this pattern was disrupted in urban habitats. In the north, urban cicadas were larger than their rural counterparts, while southern populations showed little variation in body size between habitats. We detected no evidence of differences in developmental stress due to urbanization. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that urbanization disrupts biogeographical trends in body size, and this pattern highlights how the effects of urbanization may differ over a species' range.

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

Seasonal and diurnal patterns of soil water potential in the rhizosphere of blue oaks: evidence for hydraulic lift.

PubMed

Ishikawa, C Millikin; Bledsoe, C S

2000-12-01

In a 3-year study, seasonal and daily soil water fluctuations in a California blue oak woodland were investigated by measuring soil water potential (Ψ s ) at hourly intervals. Soil water potential remained relatively high well into the annual summer drought, with values above -0.5 MPa until June even in a dry year. As drought progressed, Ψ s (at 25, 50, 75, and 100 cm depth) decreased to less than -3 MPa, providing evidence for continued blue oak root activity throughout the summer. We observed diurnal Ψ s fluctuations (gradual increase at night and rapid decrease during daytime) characteristic of hydraulic lift, a process by which plant roots redistribute water from wet to dry soil layers. These diurnal fluctuations were observed at all four soil depths and began to appear when Ψ s reached approximately -0.3 MPa. When Ψ s reached approximately -3 MPa, fluctuations became "offset" from those typical of hydraulic lift. These offset fluctuations (apparent at low water potentials when temperature fluctuations were large) closely followed diurnal fluctuations in soil temperature. We propose that these offset patterns resulted from a combination of hydraulic lift cessation and an over-correction for temperature in the model used to calculate Ψ s from raw sensor data. The appearance and disappearance of hydraulic lift fluctuations seemed to depend on Ψ s . While soil temperatures and dates at which hydraulic lift appeared (and disappeared) were significantly different between wet and dry years, Ψ s values associated with hydraulic lift appearance were not significantly different. Hydraulic lift occurred too late in summer to benefit annual forage grasses. However, water released by blue oak trees at night could slow the rate of soil water depletion and extend blue oaks' growing season.

Fitness trade-offs of group formation and movement by Thomson's gazelles in the Serengeti ecosystem.

PubMed

Fryxell, John M; Berdahl, Andrew M

2018-05-19

Collective behaviours contributing to patterns of group formation and coordinated movement are common across many ecosystems and taxa. Their ubiquity is presumably due to altering interactions between individuals and their predators, resources and physical environment in ways that enhance individual fitness. On the other hand, fitness costs are also often associated with group formation. Modifications to these interactions have the potential to dramatically impact population-level processes, such as trophic interactions or patterns of space use in relation to abiotic environmental variation. In a wide variety of empirical systems and models, collective behaviour has been shown to enhance access to ephemeral patches of resources, reduce the risk of predation and reduce vulnerability to environmental fluctuation. Evolution of collective behaviour should accordingly depend on the advantages of collective behaviour weighed against the costs experienced at the individual level. As an illustrative case study, we consider the potential trade-offs on Malthusian fitness associated with patterns of group formation and movement by migratory Thomson's gazelles in the Serengeti ecosystem.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'. © 2018 The Authors.

Whooping cough dynamics in Chile (1932-2010): disease temporal fluctuations across a north-south gradient.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Estay, Sergio A; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Rubilar, Paola; Broutin, Hélène; Chowell-Puente, Gerardo

2015-12-30

The spatial-temporal dynamics of Bordetella pertussis remains as a highly interesting case in infectious disease epidemiology. Despite large-scale vaccination programs in place for over 50 years around the world, frequent outbreaks are still reported in many countries. Here, we use annual time series of pertussis incidence from the thirteen different regions of Chile (1952-2010) to study the spatial-temporal dynamics of Pertussis. The period 1975-1995 was characterized by a strong 4 year cycle, while the last two decades of the study period (1990-2010) were characterized by disease resurgence without significant periodic patterns. During the first decades, differences in periodic patterns across regions can be explained by the differences in susceptible recruitment. The observed shift in periodicity from the period 1952-1974 to the period 1975-1995 across regions was relatively well predicted by the susceptible recruitment and population size. However, data on vaccination rates was not taken into account in this study. Our findings highlight how demography and population size have interacted with the immunization program in shaping periodicity along a unique latitudinal gradient. Widespread B. pertussis vaccination appears to lead to longer periodic dynamics, which is line with a reduction in B. pertussis transmission, but our findings indicate that regions characterized by both low birth rate and population size decreased in periodicity following immunization efforts.

Active dynamics of colloidal particles in time-varying laser speckle patterns

PubMed Central

Bianchi, Silvio; Pruner, Riccardo; Vizsnyiczai, Gaszton; Maggi, Claudio; Di Leonardo, Roberto

2016-01-01

Colloidal particles immersed in a dynamic speckle pattern experience an optical force that fluctuates both in space and time. The resulting dynamics presents many interesting analogies with a broad class of non-equilibrium systems like: active colloids, self propelled microorganisms, transport in dynamical intracellular environments. Here we show that the use of a spatial light modulator allows to generate light fields that fluctuate with controllable space and time correlations and a prescribed average intensity profile. In particular we generate ring-shaped random patterns that can confine a colloidal particle over a quasi one-dimensional random energy landscape. We find a mean square displacement that is diffusive at both short and long times, while a superdiffusive or subdiffusive behavior is observed at intermediate times depending on the value of the speckles correlation time. We propose two alternative models for the mean square displacement in the two limiting cases of a short or long speckles correlation time. A simple interpolation formula is shown to account for the full phenomenology observed in the mean square displacement across the entire range from fast to slow fluctuating speckles. PMID:27279540

Bach Is the Father of Harmony: Revealed by a 1/f Fluctuation Analysis across Musical Genres.

PubMed

Wu, Dan; Kendrick, Keith M; Levitin, Daniel J; Li, Chaoyi; Yao, Dezhong

2015-01-01

Harmony is a fundamental attribute of music. Close connections exist between music and mathematics since both pursue harmony and unity. In music, the consonance of notes played simultaneously partly determines our perception of harmony; associates with aesthetic responses; and influences the emotion expression. The consonance could be considered as a window to understand and analyze harmony. Here for the first time we used a 1/f fluctuation analysis to investigate whether the consonance fluctuation structure in music with a wide range of composers and genres followed the scale free pattern that has been found for pitch, melody, rhythm, human body movements, brain activity, natural images and geographical features. We then used a network graph approach to investigate which composers were the most influential both within and across genres. Our results showed that patterns of consonance in music did follow scale-free characteristics, suggesting that this feature is a universally evolved one in both music and the living world. Furthermore, our network analysis revealed that Bach's harmony patterns were having the most influence on those used by other composers, followed closely by Mozart.

Le Conte's sparrows breeding in Conservation Reserve Program fields: precipitation and patterns of population change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Igl, Lawrence D.; Johnson, Douglas H.

1999-01-01

The climate of the North American Great Plains is highly dynamic, with great year-to-year variability in precipitation and periodic, often extreme, wet and dry cycles (Bragg 1995). Drought is a major force of ecological disturbance on the Great Plains and has played a key role in directing the evolution of the grassland biota of this region (Knopf and Samson 1997). Although grassland birds may differ in their responses to enviromenental variations (Rotenberry and Wiens 1991), climatic variability and concomitant unpredictability of resources strongly influence populations of grassland birds across space and time (Wiens 1974, 1986; Cody 1985). Not surprisingly, breeding bird populations on the Great Plains are highly dynamic, exhibiting considerable annual variation in composition, abundance, and distribution (Johnson and Grier 1988, George et al. 1992, Zimmerman 1992, Igl and Johnson 1997). Recently, interest in grassland birds has increased with the recognition that many species are declining both continentally (Droege and Sauer 1994) and globally (Goriup 1988). Identification of the specific factors associated with grassland bird declines in North America, however, remains largely enigmatic (Herkert 1997), and it is complicated by the considerable annual fluctuations in grassland bird distribution and abundance (Igl and Johnson 1997). Although there is evidence that land-use changes on the breeding grounds may have contributed to grassland bird declines (e.g., Igl and Johnson 1997), there also is an indication that long-term drought conditions may have influenced recent population changes of some breeding birds on the Great Plains (Droege and Sauer 1989, Peterjohn and Sauer 1993, Bethke and Nudds 1995, Igl and Johnson 1997). Le Conte's Sparrow (Ammodramus leconteii) is a secretive grassland bird that breeds in central and southern Canada and the northcentral United States (Murray 1969). It winters primarily in the southern United States (Peterson 1980, 1990). Like populations of many grassland breeding birds in North America (Fretwell 1986, Igl and Johnson 1997), Le Conte's Sparrow populations exhibit numerical highs and lows depending on local moisture conditions (Peabody 1901, Stewart 1975, Knapton 1979, Zimmer 1979, Madden 1996). This observation, however, is based largely on anecdotal evidence or short-term observations. Long-term studies of Le Conte's Sparrow populations are limited. Le Conte's Sparrow is poorly represented on the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) because of small sample sizes, poor coverage in the northern portion of its breeding range, and the species' furtive behavior (Sauer et al. 1995). Moreover, dramatic fluctuations in Le Conte's Sparrow abundance tend to obscure the species' long-term population trends on the BBS (Sauer et al. 1995). In this paper we examine long-term population changes of Le Conte's Sparrows breeding in perennial grassland fields enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) on the northern Great Plains. We discuss patterns of population change of Le Conte's Sparrows associated with changes in precipitation and moisture conditions.

Quantifying nonstationary radioactivity concentration fluctuations near Chernobyl: A complete statistical description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viswanathan, G. M.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Garger, E. K.; Kashpur, V. A.; Lucena, L. S.; Shlyakhter, A.; Stanley, H. E.; Tschiersch, J.

2000-09-01

We analyze nonstationary 137Cs atmospheric activity concentration fluctuations measured near Chernobyl after the 1986 disaster and find three new results: (i) the histogram of fluctuations is well described by a log-normal distribution; (ii) there is a pronounced spectral component with period T=1yr, and (iii) the fluctuations are long-range correlated. These findings allow us to quantify two fundamental statistical properties of the data: the probability distribution and the correlation properties of the time series. We interpret our findings as evidence that the atmospheric radionuclide resuspension processes are tightly coupled to the surrounding ecosystems and to large time scale weather patterns.

Spin noise spectroscopy beyond thermal equilibrium and linear response.

PubMed

Glasenapp, P; Sinitsyn, N A; Yang, Luyi; Rickel, D G; Roy, D; Greilich, A; Bayer, M; Crooker, S A

2014-10-10

Per the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, the information obtained from spin fluctuation studies in thermal equilibrium is necessarily constrained by the system's linear response functions. However, by including weak radio frequency magnetic fields, we demonstrate that intrinsic and random spin fluctuations even in strictly unpolarized ensembles can reveal underlying patterns of correlation and coupling beyond linear response, and can be used to study nonequilibrium and even multiphoton coherent spin phenomena. We demonstrate this capability in a classical vapor of (41)K alkali atoms, where spin fluctuations alone directly reveal Rabi splittings, the formation of Mollow triplets and Autler-Townes doublets, ac Zeeman shifts, and even nonlinear multiphoton coherences.

Mean-field analysis of an inductive reasoning game: Application to influenza vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breban, Romulus; Vardavas, Raffaele; Blower, Sally

2007-09-01

Recently we have introduced an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. Here, we analyze our model to describe the dynamics of the collective yearly vaccination uptake. We discuss the mean-field equations of our model and first order effects of fluctuations. We explain why our model predicts that severe epidemics are periodically expected even without the introduction of pandemic strains. We find that fluctuations in the collective yearly vaccination uptake induce severe epidemics with an expected periodicity that depends on the number of independent decision makers in the population. The mean-field dynamics also reveal that there are conditions for which the dynamics become robust to the fluctuations. However, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics occurs for biologically implausible parameters. We also analyze our model when incentive-based vaccination programs are offered. When a family-based incentive is offered, the expected periodicity of severe epidemics is increased. This results from the fact that the number of independent decision makers is reduced, increasing the effect of the fluctuations. However, incentives based on the number of years of prepayment of vaccination may yield fluctuation-robust dynamics where severe epidemics are prevented. In this case, depending on prepayment, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics may occur for biologically plausible parameters. Our analysis provides a practical method for identifying how many years of free vaccination should be provided in order to successfully ameliorate influenza epidemics.

Mean-field analysis of an inductive reasoning game: application to influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Breban, Romulus; Vardavas, Raffaele; Blower, Sally

2007-09-01

Recently we have introduced an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. Here, we analyze our model to describe the dynamics of the collective yearly vaccination uptake. We discuss the mean-field equations of our model and first order effects of fluctuations. We explain why our model predicts that severe epidemics are periodically expected even without the introduction of pandemic strains. We find that fluctuations in the collective yearly vaccination uptake induce severe epidemics with an expected periodicity that depends on the number of independent decision makers in the population. The mean-field dynamics also reveal that there are conditions for which the dynamics become robust to the fluctuations. However, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics occurs for biologically implausible parameters. We also analyze our model when incentive-based vaccination programs are offered. When a family-based incentive is offered, the expected periodicity of severe epidemics is increased. This results from the fact that the number of independent decision makers is reduced, increasing the effect of the fluctuations. However, incentives based on the number of years of prepayment of vaccination may yield fluctuation-robust dynamics where severe epidemics are prevented. In this case, depending on prepayment, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics may occur for biologically plausible parameters. Our analysis provides a practical method for identifying how many years of free vaccination should be provided in order to successfully ameliorate influenza epidemics.

Long-term patterns of immune investment by wild deer mice infected with Sin Nombre virus.

PubMed

Lehmer, Erin M; Jones, Jeremy D; Bego, Mariana G; Varner, Johanna M; Jeor, Stephen St; Clay, Christine A; Dearing, M Denise

2010-01-01

Immunocompetence of animals fluctuates seasonally, However, there is little consensus on the cause of these fluctuations. Some studies have suggested that these patterns are influenced by changes in reproductive condition, whereas others have suggested that differences result from seasonal variations in energy expenditures. The objective of our study was to examine these contrasting views of immunity by evaluating seasonal patterns of immune response and reproduction in wild populations of deer mice Peromyscus maniculatus exposed to Sin Nombre virus (SNV). Over three consecutive fall (September, October, November) and three consecutive spring (March, April, May) sampling periods, we used titration enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to quantify virus-specific antibody production in 48 deer mice infected with SNV. Levels of reproductive hormones were quantified using ELISA. SNV antibody titers reached their lowest level during November (geometric mean titer [GMT] = 420) and their highest levels during September (GMT = 5,545) and May (GMT = 3,582), suggesting that the immune response of deer mice to SNV has seasonal patterns. The seeming decrease in antibody titer over winter coupled with the consistency in body masses suggests that during winter, immunocompetence may be compromised to offset the energetic costs of maintenance functions, including those associated with maintaining body mass. Deer mice showed distinct sex-based differences in SNV antibody production, with males producing higher antibody titers (GMT = 3,333) than females (GMT = 1,477). Levels of reproductive hormones do not appear to influence antibody production in either males or females, as there was no correlation between estradiol concentrations and SNV antibody titer in female deer mice (r² = 0.26), nor was there a significant relationship between levels of testosterone and SNV antibody titers in males (r² = 0.28). Collectively, this study demonstrates that immunocompetence of wild deer mice is seasonally variable; however, reproduction is not the primary stressor responsible for this variation. Rather, the data suggest that deer mice may compromise immunocompetence during winter to offset other maintenance costs during this period.

Synchronisation and stability in river metapopulation networks.

PubMed

Yeakel, J D; Moore, J W; Guimarães, P R; de Aguiar, M A M

2014-03-01

Spatial structure in landscapes impacts population stability. Two linked components of stability have large consequences for persistence: first, statistical stability as the lack of temporal fluctuations; second, synchronisation as an aspect of dynamic stability, which erodes metapopulation rescue effects. Here, we determine the influence of river network structure on the stability of riverine metapopulations. We introduce an approach that converts river networks to metapopulation networks, and analytically show how fluctuation magnitude is influenced by interaction structure. We show that river metapopulation complexity (in terms of branching prevalence) has nonlinear dampening effects on population fluctuations, and can also buffer against synchronisation. We conclude by showing that river transects generally increase synchronisation, while the spatial scale of interaction has nonlinear effects on synchronised dynamics. Our results indicate that this dual stability - conferred by fluctuation and synchronisation dampening - emerges from interaction structure in rivers, and this may strongly influence the persistence of river metapopulations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

A model study of assisted adiabatic transfer of population in the presence of collisional dephasing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Masuda, Shumpei, E-mail: shumpei.masuda@aalto.fi; Rice, Stuart A., E-mail: s-rice@uchicago.edu

2015-06-28

Previous studies have demonstrated that when experimental conditions generate non-adiabatic dynamics that prevents highly efficient population transfer between states of an isolated system by stimulated Raman adiabatic passage (STIRAP), the addition of an auxiliary counter-diabatic field (CDF) can restore most or all of that efficiency. This paper examines whether that strategy is also successful in a non-isolated system in which the energies of the states fluctuate, e.g., when a solute is subject to collisions with solvent. We study population transfer in two model systems: (i) the three-state system used by Demirplak and Rice [J. Chem. Phys. 116, 8028 (2002)] andmore » (ii) a four-state system, derived from the simulation studies of Demirplak and Rice [J. Chem. Phys. 125, 194517 (2006)], that mimics HCl in liquid Ar. Simulation studies of the vibrational manifold of HCl in dense fluid Ar show that the collision induced vibrational energy level fluctuations have asymmetric distributions. Representations of these asymmetric energy level fluctuation distributions are used in both models (i) and (ii). We identify three sources of degradation of the efficiency of STIRAP generated selective population transfer in model (ii): too small pulse areas of the laser fields, unwanted interference arising from use of strong fields, and the vibrational detuning. For both models (i) and (ii), our examination of the efficiency of STIRAP + CDF population transfer under the influence of the asymmetric distribution of the vibrational energy fluctuations shows that there is a range of field strengths and pulse durations under which STIRAP + CDF control of population transfer has greater efficiency than does STIRAP generated population transfer.« less

Scaling Features of High-Latitude Geomagnetic Field Fluctuations at Swarm Altitude: Impact of IMF Orientation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Michelis, Paola; Consolini, Giuseppe; Tozzi, Roberta; Marcucci, Maria Federica

2017-10-01

This paper attempts to explore the statistical scaling features of high-latitude geomagnetic field fluctuations at Swarm altitude. Data for this study are low-resolution (1 Hz) magnetic data recorded by the vector field magnetometer on board Swarm A satellite over 1 year (from 15 April 2014 to 15 April 2015). The first- and second-order structure function scaling exponents and the degree of intermittency of the fluctuations of the intensity of the horizontal component of the magnetic field at high northern latitudes have been evaluated for different interplanetary magnetic field orientations in the GSM Y-Z plane and seasons. In the case of the first-order structure function scaling exponent, a comparison between the average spatial distributions of the obtained values and the statistical convection patterns obtained using a Super Dual Auroral Radar Network dynamic model (CS10 model) has been also considered. The obtained results support the idea that the knowledge of the scaling features of the geomagnetic field fluctuations can help in the characterization of the different ionospheric turbulence regimes of the medium crossed by Swarm A satellite. This study shows that different turbulent regimes of the geomagnetic field fluctuations exist in the regions characterized by a double-cell convection pattern and in those regions near the border of the convective structures.

Complex spatial dynamics maintain northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) genetic diversity in a temporally varying landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Chen, Yongjiu; Stockwell, Craig A.

2013-01-01

In contrast to most local amphibian populations, northeastern populations of the Northern Leopard Frog (Lithobates pipiens) have displayed uncharacteristically high levels of genetic diversity that have been attributed to large, stable populations. However, this widely distributed species also occurs in areas known for great climatic fluctuations that should be reflected in corresponding fluctuations in population sizes and reduced genetic diversity. To test our hypothesis that Northern Leopard Frog genetic diversity would be reduced in areas subjected to significant climate variability, we examined the genetic diversity of L. pipiens collected from 12 sites within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota. Despite the region's fluctuating climate that includes periods of recurring drought and deluge, we found unexpectedly high levels of genetic diversity approaching that of northeastern populations. Further, genetic structure at a landscape scale was strikingly homogeneous; genetic differentiation estimates (Dest) averaged 0.10 (SD = 0.036) across the six microsatellite loci we studied, and two Bayesian assignment tests (STRUCTURE and BAPS) failed to reveal the development of significant population structure across the 68 km breadth of our study area. These results suggest that L. pipiens in the Prairie Pothole Region consists of a large, panmictic population capable of maintaining high genetic diversity in the face of marked climate variability.

Fluctuations uncover a distinct class of traveling waves

PubMed Central

Korolev, Kirill S.

2018-01-01

Epidemics, flame propagation, and cardiac rhythms are classic examples of reaction–diffusion waves that describe a switch from one alternative state to another. Only two types of waves are known: pulled, driven by the leading edge, and pushed, driven by the bulk of the wave. Here, we report a distinct class of semipushed waves for which both the bulk and the leading edge contribute to the dynamics. These hybrid waves have the kinetics of pushed waves, but exhibit giant fluctuations similar to pulled waves. The transitions between pulled, semipushed, and fully pushed waves occur at universal ratios of the wave velocity to the Fisher velocity. We derive these results in the context of a species invading a new habitat by examining front diffusion, rate of diversity loss, and fluctuation-induced corrections to the expansion velocity. All three quantities decrease as a power law of the population density with the same exponent. We analytically calculate this exponent, taking into account the fluctuations in the shape of the wave front. For fully pushed waves, the exponent is −1, consistent with the central limit theorem. In semipushed waves, however, the fluctuations average out much more slowly, and the exponent approaches 0 toward the transition to pulled waves. As a result, a rapid loss of genetic diversity and large fluctuations in the position of the front occur, even for populations with cooperative growth and other forms of an Allee effect. The evolutionary outcome of spatial spreading in such populations could therefore be less predictable than previously thought. PMID:29610340

Fluctuations uncover a distinct class of traveling waves.

PubMed

Birzu, Gabriel; Hallatschek, Oskar; Korolev, Kirill S

2018-04-17

Epidemics, flame propagation, and cardiac rhythms are classic examples of reaction-diffusion waves that describe a switch from one alternative state to another. Only two types of waves are known: pulled, driven by the leading edge, and pushed, driven by the bulk of the wave. Here, we report a distinct class of semipushed waves for which both the bulk and the leading edge contribute to the dynamics. These hybrid waves have the kinetics of pushed waves, but exhibit giant fluctuations similar to pulled waves. The transitions between pulled, semipushed, and fully pushed waves occur at universal ratios of the wave velocity to the Fisher velocity. We derive these results in the context of a species invading a new habitat by examining front diffusion, rate of diversity loss, and fluctuation-induced corrections to the expansion velocity. All three quantities decrease as a power law of the population density with the same exponent. We analytically calculate this exponent, taking into account the fluctuations in the shape of the wave front. For fully pushed waves, the exponent is -1, consistent with the central limit theorem. In semipushed waves, however, the fluctuations average out much more slowly, and the exponent approaches 0 toward the transition to pulled waves. As a result, a rapid loss of genetic diversity and large fluctuations in the position of the front occur, even for populations with cooperative growth and other forms of an Allee effect. The evolutionary outcome of spatial spreading in such populations could therefore be less predictable than previously thought. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Cranium asymmetry in a modern Greek population sample of known age and sex.

PubMed

Chovalopoulou, Maria-Eleni; Papageorgopoulou, Christina; Bertsatos, Andreas

2017-05-01

The aim of this paper is to evaluate and quantify cranium asymmetry, sexual differences in the set of individual asymmetry scores, and the relationship between fluctuating asymmetry and age, in a modern Greek population sample. In addition, we test for the developmental origins of health and disease hypothesis by assessing the correlation between fluctuating asymmetry and cause of death. The study sample consisted of 173 crania of known sex and adult age (92 males, 81 females) belonging to individuals who lived in Greece during the twentieth century. The three-dimensional coordinates of 77 ectocranial landmarks were digitized using a Microscribe 3DX contact digitizer and landmark configurations were analyzed using the generalized least-squares Procrustes method. Regarding directional asymmetry, the results show that the human skull has a tendency for a left-side excess for the Greek population. No significant directional asymmetry differences between the sexes are found. The highest levels of fluctuating asymmetry for both sexes are located on the skull base. The levels of fluctuating asymmetry in all cranial regions appear higher for males than females. Nevertheless, these differences do not present any statistical significance between sexes. Additionally, there is no relationship between fluctuating asymmetry scores and age for both males and females. Finally, the results of this study could not confirm that early development has a significant impact on adult health outcomes.

Productivity responses of a widespread marine piscivore, Gadus morhua, to oceanic thermal extremes and trends.

PubMed

Mantzouni, Irene; MacKenzie, Brian R

2010-06-22

Climate change will have major consequences for population dynamics and life histories of marine biota as it progresses in the twenty-first century. These impacts will differ in magnitude and direction for populations within individual marine species whose geographical ranges span large gradients in latitude and temperature. Here we use meta-analytical methods to investigate how recruitment (i.e. the number of new fish produced by spawners in a given year which subsequently grow and survive to become vulnerable to fishing gear) has reacted to temperature fluctuations, and in particular to extremes of temperature, in cod populations throughout the north Atlantic. Temperature has geographically explicit effects on cod recruitment. Impacts differ depending on whether populations are located in the upper (negative effects) or in the lower (positive effects) thermal range. The probabilities of successful year-classes in populations living in warm areas is on average 34 per cent higher in cold compared with warm seasons, whereas opposite patterns exist for populations living in cold areas. These results have implications for cod dynamics, distributions and phenologies under the influence of ocean warming, particularly related to not only changes in the mean temperature, but also its variability (e.g. frequency of exceptionally cold or warm seasons).

Evidence for the presence of quasi-two-dimensional nearly incompressible fluctuations in the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthaeus, William H.; Goldstein, Melvyn L.; Roberts, D. Aaron

1990-01-01

Assuming that the slab and isotropic models of solar wind turbulence need modification (largely due to the observed anisotropy of the interplanetary fluctuations and the results of laboratory plasma experiments), this paper proposes a model of the solar wind. The solar wind is seen as a fluid which contains both classical transverse Alfvenic fluctuations and a population of quasi-transverse fluctuations. In quasi-two-dimensional turbulence, the pitch angle scattering by resonant wave-particle interactions is suppressed, and the direction of minimum variance of interplanetary fluctuations is parallel to the mean magnetic field. The assumed incompressibility is consistent with the fact that the density fluctuations are small and anticorrelated, and that the total pressure at small scales is nearly constant.

Multiple abiotic stimuli are integrated in the regulation of rice gene expression under field conditions.

PubMed

Plessis, Anne; Hafemeister, Christoph; Wilkins, Olivia; Gonzaga, Zennia Jean; Meyer, Rachel Sarah; Pires, Inês; Müller, Christian; Septiningsih, Endang M; Bonneau, Richard; Purugganan, Michael

2015-11-26

Plants rely on transcriptional dynamics to respond to multiple climatic fluctuations and contexts in nature. We analyzed the genome-wide gene expression patterns of rice (Oryza sativa) growing in rainfed and irrigated fields during two distinct tropical seasons and determined simple linear models that relate transcriptomic variation to climatic fluctuations. These models combine multiple environmental parameters to account for patterns of expression in the field of co-expressed gene clusters. We examined the similarities of our environmental models between tropical and temperate field conditions, using previously published data. We found that field type and macroclimate had broad impacts on transcriptional responses to environmental fluctuations, especially for genes involved in photosynthesis and development. Nevertheless, variation in solar radiation and temperature at the timescale of hours had reproducible effects across environmental contexts. These results provide a basis for broad-based predictive modeling of plant gene expression in the field.

Large natural pH, CO2 and O2 fluctuations in a temperate tidal salt marsh on diel, seasonal, and interannual time scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baumann, Hannes; Wallace, Ryan; Tagliaferri, Tristen N.; Gobler, Christopher J.

2014-01-01

Coastal marine organisms experience dynamic pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) conditions in their natural habitats, which may impact their susceptibility to long-term anthropogenic changes. Robust characterizations of all temporal scales of natural pH and DO fluctuations in different marine habitats are needed; however, appropriate time series of pH and DO are still scarce. We used multiyear (2008–2012), high-frequency (6 min) monitoring data to quantify diel, seasonal, and interannual scales of pH and DO variability in a productive, temperate tidal salt marsh (Flax Pond, Long Island, US). pHNBS and DO showed strong and similar seasonal patterns, with average (minimum) conditions declining from 8.2 (8.1) and 12.5 (11.4) mg l−1 at the end of winter to 7.6 (7.2) and 6.3 (2.8) mg l−1 in late summer, respectively. Concomitantly, average diel fluctuations increased from 0.22 and 2.2 mg l−1 (February) to 0.74 and 6.5 mg l−1 (August), respectively. Diel patterns were modulated by tides and time of day, eliciting the most extreme minima when low tides aligned with the end of the night. Simultaneous in situ pCO2 measurements showed striking fluctuations between ∼330 and ∼1,200 (early May), ∼2,200 (mid June), and ∼4,000 μatm (end of July) within single tidal cycles. These patterns also indicate that the marsh’s strong net heterotrophy influences its adjacent estuary by ‘outwelling’ acidified and hypoxic water during ebb tides. Our analyses emphasize the coupled and fluctuating nature of pH and DO conditions in productive coastal and estuarine environments, which have yet to be adequately represented by experiments.

The study of RMB exchange rate complex networks based on fluctuation mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Can-Zhong; Lin, Ji-Nan; Zheng, Xu-Zhou; Liu, Xiao-Feng

2015-10-01

In the paper, we research on the characteristics of RMB exchange rate time series fluctuation with methods of symbolization and coarse gaining. First, based on fluctuation features of RMB exchange rate, we define the first type of fluctuation mode as one specific foreign currency against RMB in four days' fluctuating situations, and the second type as four different foreign currencies against RMB in one day's fluctuating situation. With the transforming method, we construct the unique-currency and multi-currency complex networks. Further, through analyzing the topological features including out-degree, betweenness centrality and clustering coefficient of fluctuation-mode complex networks, we find that the out-degree distribution of both types of fluctuation mode basically follows power-law distributions with exponents between 1 and 2. The further analysis reveals that the out-degree and the clustering coefficient generally obey the approximated negative correlation. With this result, we confirm previous observations showing that the RMB exchange rate exhibits a characteristic of long-range memory. Finally, we analyze the most probable transmission route of fluctuation modes, and provide probability prediction matrix. The transmission route for RMB exchange rate fluctuation modes exhibits the characteristics of partially closed loop, repeat and reversibility, which lays a solid foundation for predicting RMB exchange rate fluctuation patterns with large volume of data.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuparinen, Anna; Boit, Alice; Valdovinos, Fernanda S.; Lassaux, Hélène; Martinez, Neo D.

2016-02-01

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes’ food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes’ resilience to fishing and ecosystems’ resistance to environmental variations.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Boit, Alice; Valdovinos, Fernanda S; Lassaux, Hélène; Martinez, Neo D

2016-02-26

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes' food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes' resilience to fishing and ecosystems' resistance to environmental variations.

Listening for Recollection: A Multi-Voxel Pattern Analysis of Recognition Memory Retrieval Strategies

PubMed Central

Quamme, Joel R.; Weiss, David J.; Norman, Kenneth A.

2010-01-01

Recent studies of recognition memory indicate that subjects can strategically vary how much they rely on recollection of specific details vs. feelings of familiarity when making recognition judgments. One possible explanation of these results is that subjects can establish an internally directed attentional state (“listening for recollection”) that enhances retrieval of studied details; fluctuations in this attentional state over time should be associated with fluctuations in subjects’ recognition behavior. In this study, we used multi-voxel pattern analysis of fMRI data to identify brain regions that are involved in listening for recollection. We looked for brain regions that met the following criteria: (1) Distinct neural patterns should be present when subjects are instructed to rely on recollection vs. familiarity, and (2) fluctuations in these neural patterns should be related to recognition behavior in the manner predicted by dual-process theories of recognition: Specifically, the presence of the recollection pattern during the pre-stimulus interval (indicating that subjects are “listening for recollection” at that moment) should be associated with a selective decrease in false alarms to related lures. We found that pre-stimulus activity in the right supramarginal gyrus met all of these criteria, suggesting that this region proactively establishes an internally directed attentional state that fosters recollection. We also found other regions (e.g., left middle temporal gyrus) where the pattern of neural activity was related to subjects’ responding to related lures after stimulus onset (but not before), suggesting that these regions implement processes that are engaged in a reactive fashion to boost recollection. PMID:20740073

Populational fluctuation and spatial distribution of Alphitobius diaperinus (Panzer) (Coleoptera; Tenebrionidae) in a poultry house, Cascavel, Parana state, Brazil.

PubMed

Chernaki-Leffer, A M; Almeida, L M; Sosa-Gómez, D R; Anjos, A; Vogado, K M

2007-05-01

Knowledge of the population fluctuation and spatial distribution of pests is fundamental for establishing an appropriate control method. The population fluctuation and spatial distribution of the Alphitobius diaperinus in a poultry house in Cascavel, in the state of Parana, Brazil, was studied between October, 2001 and October 2002. Larvae and adults of the lesser mealworm were sampled weekly using Arends tube traps (n = 22) for six consecutive flock grow-outs. The temperature of the litter and of the poultry house was measured at the same locations of the tube traps. Beetle numbers increased continuously throughout all the sampling dates (average 5,137 in the first week and 18,494 insects on the sixth week). Significantly greater numbers of larvae were collected than adults (1 to 20 times in 95% of the sampling points). There was no correlation between temperature and the number of larvae and adults collected, therefore no fluctuation was observed during the sampling period. The population growth was correlated to litter re-use. The highest temperatures were observed in deep litter. The spatial distribution of larvae and adults in the poultry house was heterogeneous during the whole period of evaluation. Results suggest that monitoring in poultry houses is necessary prior to adopting and evaluating control measures due to the great variability of the insect distribution in the poultry house.

Multi-locus phylogeny and divergence time estimates of Enallagma damselflies (Odonata: Coenagrionidae).

PubMed

Callahan, Melissa S; McPeek, Mark A

2016-01-01

Reconstructing evolutionary patterns of species and populations provides a framework for asking questions about the impacts of climate change. Here we use a multilocus dataset to estimate gene trees under maximum likelihood and Bayesian models to obtain a robust estimate of relationships for a genus of North American damselflies, Enallagma. Using a relaxed molecular clock, we estimate the divergence times for this group. Furthermore, to account for the fact that gene tree analyses can overestimate ages of population divergences, we use a multi-population coalescent model to gain a more accurate estimate of divergence times. We also infer diversification rates using a method that allows for variation in diversification rate through time and among lineages. Our results reveal a complex evolutionary history of Enallagma, in which divergence events both predate and occur during Pleistocene climate fluctuations. There is also evidence of diversification rate heterogeneity across the tree. These divergence time estimates provide a foundation for addressing the relative significance of historical climatic events in the diversification of this genus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Colony attendance and population monitoring of Black-legged Kittiwakes on the Semidi Islands, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Scott A.; Hatch, Martha A.

1988-01-01

Patterns of colony attendance in Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) were studied over 5 years on the Semidi Islands, western Gulf of Alaska. A census period of 50 days, extending from first egg laying through final hatching, was appropriate because counts made then were subject to the least amount of daily variation. Five counts during that period were sufficient to detect a 25% change in numbers between years; counts made on all 50 days of the census period would detect a 5 to 7% change. There was little evidence for seasonal trends or serial correlation of counts during the census period, but attendance was negatively correlated with wind speed. Half of an apparent 17% increase in population between 1980 and 1981 was due to birds spending more time at their nest sites in the latter year, thereby increasing the mean of attendance counts. Despite such difficulties in the interpretation of attendance counts, birds were considered to be better counting units for population monitoring than nests, because nest densities were subject to large annual fluctuations in breeding effort.

The dynamics of genetic draft in rapidly adapting populations.

PubMed

Kosheleva, Katya; Desai, Michael M

2013-11-01

The accumulation of beneficial mutations on competing genetic backgrounds in rapidly adapting populations has a striking impact on evolutionary dynamics. This effect, known as clonal interference, causes erratic fluctuations in the frequencies of observed mutations, randomizes the fixation times of successful mutations, and leaves distinct signatures on patterns of genetic variation. Here, we show how this form of "genetic draft" affects the forward-time dynamics of site frequencies in rapidly adapting asexual populations. We calculate the probability that mutations at individual sites shift in frequency over a characteristic timescale, extending Gillespie's original model of draft to the case where many strongly selected beneficial mutations segregate simultaneously. We then derive the sojourn time of mutant alleles, the expected fixation time of successful mutants, and the site frequency spectrum of beneficial and neutral mutations. Finally, we show how this form of draft affects inferences in the McDonald-Kreitman test and how it relates to recent observations that some aspects of genetic diversity are described by the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent in the limit of very rapid adaptation.

Registration of interferometric SAR images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Qian; Vesecky, John F.; Zebker, Howard A.

1992-01-01

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (INSAR) is a new way of performing topography mapping. Among the factors critical to mapping accuracy is the registration of the complex SAR images from repeated orbits. A new algorithm for registering interferometric SAR images is presented. A new figure of merit, the average fluctuation function of the phase difference image, is proposed to evaluate the fringe pattern quality. The process of adjusting the registration parameters according to the fringe pattern quality is optimized through a downhill simplex minimization algorithm. The results of applying the proposed algorithm to register two pairs of Seasat SAR images with a short baseline (75 m) and a long baseline (500 m) are shown. It is found that the average fluctuation function is a very stable measure of fringe pattern quality allowing very accurate registration.

Re-colonization by common eiders Somateria mollissima in the Aleutian Archipelago following removal of introduced arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Margaret R.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Sexson, Matthew G.

2015-01-01

Islands provide refuges for populations of many species where they find safety from predators, but the introduction of predators frequently results in elimination or dramatic reductions in island-dwelling organisms. When predators are removed, re-colonization for some species occurs naturally, and inter-island phylogeographic relationships and current movement patterns can illuminate processes of colonization. We studied a case of re-colonization of common eiders Somateria mollissima following removal of introduced arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus in the Aleutian Archipelago, Alaska. We expected common eiders to resume nesting on islands cleared of foxes and to re-colonize from nearby islets, islands, and island groups. We thus expected common eiders to show limited genetic structure indicative of extensive mixing among island populations. Satellite telemetry was used to record current movement patterns of female common eiders from six islands across three island groups. We collected genetic data from these and other nesting common eiders at 14 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial DNA control region to examine population genetic structure, historical fluctuations in population demography, and gene flow. Our results suggest recent interchange among islands. Analysis of microsatellite data supports satellite telemetry data of increased dispersal of common eiders to nearby areas and little between island groups. Although evidence from mtDNA is suggestive of female dispersal among island groups, gene flow is insufficient to account for recolonization and rapid population growth. Instead, near-by remnant populations of common eiders contributed substantially to population expansion, without which re-colonization would have likely occurred at a much lower rate. Genetic and morphometric data of common eiders within one island group two and three decades after re-colonization suggests reduced movement of eiders among islands and little movement between island groups after populations were re-established. We predict that re-colonization of an island group where all common eiders are extirpated could take decades.

A Display of Patterns of Change in Learners' Motivation: Dynamics Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sel?uk, Özge; Erten, Ismail Hakki

2017-01-01

Getting to understand patterns and causes of motivational changes experienced by language learners while studying a foreign language can be of significant value. This paper aims to explore patterns of such fluctuations at the tertiary level. Through a dynamic systems perspective, this study employed Retrodictive Qualitative Modelling to generate…

Effect of climate-ocean changes on the abundance of Pacific saury.

PubMed

Gong, Yeong; Suh, Young Sang

2013-01-01

Effects of ocean climate changes on the population structure and abundance of Pacific saury (Cololabis sira) were investigated on the basis of climate indices, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, catch and body size information from the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) region (Yellow Sea, East China Sea and East/Japan Sea) during the period 1950-2010. It is suggested that oceanic regime shifts in the early 1970s, late 1980s and late 1990s occurred in the TWC region in winter, but the regime shifts in the mid-1970s and in the late 1980s were not evident in the spring SST anomaly series. The abundance and body size of Pacific saury fluctuated in association with the winter oceanic changes in the TWC region. The catch rates and abundance of large size saury were far bellow average during their northward migrations in the TWC region in the years with abnormally cool winters (e.g., 1963, 1970, 1977, 1981-1989 and 2006) and above average in the years with warm winters. These patterns demonstrate decadal-scale variations together with large inter-annual fluctuations in the structure and abundance of Pacific saury in association with the climatic-oceanic changes. These results, along with an alternation of dominant pelagic fish species, indicate the status of the saury population in the TWC region is in good condition, similar to that in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC) region during the warm regime after the late 1980s climate regime shift.

Grouping and trajectories of neuropsychiatric symptoms in patients with Alzheimer's disease. Part II: two-year patient trajectories.

PubMed

Garre-Olmo, Josep; López-Pousa, Secundino; Vilalta-Franch, Joan; de Gracia Blanco, Manuel; Vilarrasa, Antoni Bulbena

2010-01-01

Behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) are characterized by fluctuations in their frequency and severity as well as by differences in the concurrent presentation of different symptoms. The goal of the current study was to identify groups of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) that had similar trajectories in the expression of BPSD. Over a 24-month period, an observational study was conducted using a population of ambulatory patients with AD of mild or moderate severity. The Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) was administered every 6 months to the patient's caregiver. To classify patients according to changes in the frequency and severity of BPSD, growth mixture models were fitted to the applied to the grouping of NPI subscales in the following three categories: psychotic syndrome (hallucinations and delusions), affective syndrome (depression, anxiety, irritability, and agitation), and behavioral syndrome (disinhibition, euphoria, apathy, and aberrant motor behavior). The sample population consisted of 491 patients (70.9% women) that had an average age of 75.2 years (SD=6.6). Different trajectory patterns were identified based on differences in changes over the time in the frequency (stable, increasing, decreasing, or fluctuating in course) and severity (low, moderate, or elevated severity) for psychotic syndrome, emotional syndrome, and behavior syndrome. Patients with AD display a high degree of variability in the evolutionary course of BPSD. It is possible to identify groups of patients with similar evolutionary trajectories in terms of changes in the frequency and severity of BPSD.

Decadal variability of precipitation over Western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Diaz, Henry F.; Graham, N.E.

1998-01-01

Decadal (>7- yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation 'modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate proceses. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.Decadal (>7-yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation `modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate processes. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.

Description of small-scale fluctuations in the diffuse X-ray background.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavaliere, A.; Friedland, A.; Gursky, H.; Spada, G.

1973-01-01

An analytical study of the fluctuations on a small angular scale expected in the diffuse X-ray background in the presence of unresolved sources is presented. The source population is described by a function N(S), giving the number of sources per unit solid angle and unit apparent flux S. The distribution of observed flux, s, in each angular resolution element of a complete sky survey is represented by a function Q(s). The analytical relation between the successive, higher-order moments of N(S) and Q(s) is described. The goal of reconstructing the source population from the study of the moments of Q(s) of order higher than the second (i.e., the rms fluctuations) is discussed.

Mate-finding as an overlooked critical determinant of dispersal variation in sexually-reproducing animals.

PubMed

Gilroy, James J; Lockwood, Julie L

2012-01-01

Dispersal is a critically important process in ecology, but robust predictive models of animal dispersal remain elusive. We identify a potentially ubiquitous component of variation in animal dispersal that has been largely overlooked until now: the influence of mate encounters on settlement probability. We use an individual-based model to simulate dispersal in sexually-reproducing organisms that follow a simple set of movement rules based on conspecific encounters, within an environment lacking spatial habitat heterogeneity. We show that dispersal distances vary dramatically with fluctuations in population density in such a model, even in the absence of variation in dispersive traits between individuals. In a simple random-walk model with promiscuous mating, dispersal distributions become increasingly 'fat-tailed' at low population densities due to the increasing scarcity of mates. Similar variation arises in models incorporating territoriality. In a model with polygynous mating, we show that patterns of sex-biased dispersal can even be reversed across a gradient of population density, despite underlying dispersal mechanisms remaining unchanged. We show that some widespread dispersal patterns found in nature (e.g. fat tailed distributions) can arise as a result of demographic variability in the absence of heterogeneity in dispersive traits across the population. This implies that models in which individual dispersal distances are considered to be fixed traits might be unrealistic, as dispersal distances vary widely under a single dispersal mechanism when settlement is influenced by mate encounters. Mechanistic models offer a promising means of advancing our understanding of dispersal in sexually-reproducing organisms.

How do neurons work together? Lessons from auditory cortex.

PubMed

Harris, Kenneth D; Bartho, Peter; Chadderton, Paul; Curto, Carina; de la Rocha, Jaime; Hollender, Liad; Itskov, Vladimir; Luczak, Artur; Marguet, Stephan L; Renart, Alfonso; Sakata, Shuzo

2011-01-01

Recordings of single neurons have yielded great insights into the way acoustic stimuli are represented in auditory cortex. However, any one neuron functions as part of a population whose combined activity underlies cortical information processing. Here we review some results obtained by recording simultaneously from auditory cortical populations and individual morphologically identified neurons, in urethane-anesthetized and unanesthetized passively listening rats. Auditory cortical populations produced structured activity patterns both in response to acoustic stimuli, and spontaneously without sensory input. Population spike time patterns were broadly conserved across multiple sensory stimuli and spontaneous events, exhibiting a generally conserved sequential organization lasting approximately 100 ms. Both spontaneous and evoked events exhibited sparse, spatially localized activity in layer 2/3 pyramidal cells, and densely distributed activity in larger layer 5 pyramidal cells and putative interneurons. Laminar propagation differed however, with spontaneous activity spreading upward from deep layers and slowly across columns, but sensory responses initiating in presumptive thalamorecipient layers, spreading rapidly across columns. In both unanesthetized and urethanized rats, global activity fluctuated between "desynchronized" state characterized by low amplitude, high-frequency local field potentials and a "synchronized" state of larger, lower-frequency waves. Computational studies suggested that responses could be predicted by a simple dynamical system model fitted to the spontaneous activity immediately preceding stimulus presentation. Fitting this model to the data yielded a nonlinear self-exciting system model in synchronized states and an approximately linear system in desynchronized states. We comment on the significance of these results for auditory cortical processing of acoustic and non-acoustic information. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics and management of infectious disease in colonizing populations.

PubMed

Bar-David, Shirli; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Getz, Wayne M

2006-05-01

The introduction of chronic, infectious diseases by colonizing populations (invasive or reintroduced) is a serious hazard in conservation biology, threatening the original host and other spillover species. Most research on spatial invasion of diseases has pertained to established host populations, either at steady state or fluctuating through time. Within a colonizing population, however, the spread of disease may be influenced by the expansion process of the population itself. Here we explore the simultaneous expansion of a colonizing population and a chronic, nonlethal disease introduced with it, describing basic patterns in homogeneous and structured landscapes and discussing implications for disease management. We describe expected outcomes of such introductions for three qualitatively distinct cases, depending on the relative velocities at which the population and epidemic expand. (1) If transmissibility is low the disease cannot be sustained, although it may first expand its range somewhat around the point of introduction. (2) If transmissibility is moderate but the wave-front velocity for the population, vp, is higher than that for the disease, vd, the disease wave front lags behind that of the population. (3) A highly transmissible disease, with vd > vp, will invade sufficiently rapidly to track the spread of the host. To test these elementary theoretical predictions, we simulated disease outbreaks in a spatially structured host population occupying a real landscape. We used a spatially explicit, individual-based model of Persian fallow deer (Dama mesopotamica) reintroduced in northern Israel, considering a hypothetical introduction of bovine tuberculosis. Basic patterns of disease expansion in this realistic setting were similar to our conceptual predictions for homogeneous landscapes. Landscape heterogeneity, however, induced the establishment of population activity centers and disease foci within them, leading to jagged wave fronts and causing local variation in the relative velocities at which the population and epidemic expanded. Based on predictions from simple theory and simulations of managed outbreaks, we suggest that the relative velocities at which the population and epidemic expand have important implications for the impact of different management strategies. Recognizing which of our three general cases best describes a particular outbreak will aid in planning an efficient strategy to contain the disease.

Phenotypic plasticity of life-history traits of a calanoid copepod in a tropical lake: Is the magnitude of thermal plasticity related to thermal variability?

PubMed

Ortega-Mayagoitia, Elizabeth; Hernández-Martínez, Osvaldo; Ciros-Pérez, Jorge

2018-01-01

According to the Climatic Variability Hypothesis [CVH], thermal plasticity should be wider in organisms from temperate environments, but is unlikely to occur in tropical latitudes where temperature fluctuations are narrow. In copepods, food availability has been suggested as the main driver of phenotypic variability in adult size if the range of temperature change is less than 14°C. Leptodiaptomus garciai is a calanoid copepod inhabiting Lake Alchichica, a monomictic, tropical lake in Mexico that experiences regular, narrow temperature fluctuations but wide changes in phytoplankton availability. We investigated whether the seasonal fluctuations of temperature and food produce phenotypic variation in the life-history traits of this tropical species. We sampled L. garciai throughout a year and measured female size, egg size and number, and hatching success, along with temperature and phytoplankton biomass. The amplitude of the plastic responses was estimated with the Phenotypic Plasticity Index. This index was also computed for a published dataset of 84 copepod populations to look if there is a relationship between the amplitude of the phenotypic plasticity of adult size and seasonal change in temperature. The temperature annual range in Lake Alchichica was 3.2°C, whereas phytoplankton abundance varied 17-fold. A strong pattern of thermal plasticity in egg size and adult female size followed the inverse relationship with temperature commonly observed in temperate environments, although its adaptive value was not demonstrated. Egg number, relative reproductive effort and number of nauplii per female were clearly plastic to food availability, allowing organisms to increase their fitness. When comparing copepod species from different latitudes, we found that the magnitude of thermal plasticity of adult size is not related to the range of temperature variation; furthermore, thermal plasticity exists even in environments of limited temperature variation, where the response is more intense compared to temperate populations.

Phenotypic plasticity of life-history traits of a calanoid copepod in a tropical lake: Is the magnitude of thermal plasticity related to thermal variability?

PubMed Central

Hernández-Martínez, Osvaldo; Ciros-Pérez, Jorge

2018-01-01

According to the Climatic Variability Hypothesis [CVH], thermal plasticity should be wider in organisms from temperate environments, but is unlikely to occur in tropical latitudes where temperature fluctuations are narrow. In copepods, food availability has been suggested as the main driver of phenotypic variability in adult size if the range of temperature change is less than 14°C. Leptodiaptomus garciai is a calanoid copepod inhabiting Lake Alchichica, a monomictic, tropical lake in Mexico that experiences regular, narrow temperature fluctuations but wide changes in phytoplankton availability. We investigated whether the seasonal fluctuations of temperature and food produce phenotypic variation in the life-history traits of this tropical species. We sampled L. garciai throughout a year and measured female size, egg size and number, and hatching success, along with temperature and phytoplankton biomass. The amplitude of the plastic responses was estimated with the Phenotypic Plasticity Index. This index was also computed for a published dataset of 84 copepod populations to look if there is a relationship between the amplitude of the phenotypic plasticity of adult size and seasonal change in temperature. The temperature annual range in Lake Alchichica was 3.2°C, whereas phytoplankton abundance varied 17-fold. A strong pattern of thermal plasticity in egg size and adult female size followed the inverse relationship with temperature commonly observed in temperate environments, although its adaptive value was not demonstrated. Egg number, relative reproductive effort and number of nauplii per female were clearly plastic to food availability, allowing organisms to increase their fitness. When comparing copepod species from different latitudes, we found that the magnitude of thermal plasticity of adult size is not related to the range of temperature variation; furthermore, thermal plasticity exists even in environments of limited temperature variation, where the response is more intense compared to temperate populations. PMID:29708999

High-amplitude fluctuations and alternative dynamical states of midges in Lake Myvatn.

PubMed

Ives, Anthony R; Einarsson, Arni; Jansen, Vincent A A; Gardarsson, Arnthor

2008-03-06

Complex dynamics are often shown by simple ecological models and have been clearly demonstrated in laboratory and natural systems. Yet many classes of theoretically possible dynamics are still poorly documented in nature. Here we study long-term time-series data of a midge, Tanytarsus gracilentus (Diptera: Chironomidae), in Lake Myvatn, Iceland. The midge undergoes density fluctuations of almost six orders of magnitude. Rather than regular cycles, however, these fluctuations have irregular periods of 4-7 years, indicating complex dynamics. We fit three consumer-resource models capable of qualitatively distinct dynamics to the data. Of these, the best-fitting model shows alternative dynamical states in the absence of environmental variability; depending on the initial midge densities, the model shows either fluctuations around a fixed point or high-amplitude cycles. This explains the observed complex population dynamics: high-amplitude but irregular fluctuations occur because stochastic variability causes the dynamics to switch between domains of attraction to the alternative states. In the model, the amplitude of fluctuations depends strongly on minute resource subsidies into the midge habitat. These resource subsidies may be sensitive to human-caused changes in the hydrology of the lake, with human impacts such as dredging leading to higher-amplitude fluctuations. Tanytarsus gracilentus is a key component of the Myvatn ecosystem, representing two-thirds of the secondary productivity of the lake and providing vital food resources to fish and to breeding bird populations. Therefore the high-amplitude, irregular fluctuations in midge densities generated by alternative dynamical states dominate much of the ecology of the lake.

Dendritic nonlinearities are tuned for efficient spike-based computations in cortical circuits

PubMed Central

Ujfalussy, Balázs B; Makara, Judit K; Branco, Tiago; Lengyel, Máté

2015-01-01

Cortical neurons integrate thousands of synaptic inputs in their dendrites in highly nonlinear ways. It is unknown how these dendritic nonlinearities in individual cells contribute to computations at the level of neural circuits. Here, we show that dendritic nonlinearities are critical for the efficient integration of synaptic inputs in circuits performing analog computations with spiking neurons. We developed a theory that formalizes how a neuron's dendritic nonlinearity that is optimal for integrating synaptic inputs depends on the statistics of its presynaptic activity patterns. Based on their in vivo preynaptic population statistics (firing rates, membrane potential fluctuations, and correlations due to ensemble dynamics), our theory accurately predicted the responses of two different types of cortical pyramidal cells to patterned stimulation by two-photon glutamate uncaging. These results reveal a new computational principle underlying dendritic integration in cortical neurons by suggesting a functional link between cellular and systems--level properties of cortical circuits. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.10056.001 PMID:26705334

Population limitation in a non-cyclic arctic fox population in a changing climate.

PubMed

Pálsson, Snæbjörn; Hersteinsson, Páll; Unnsteinsdóttir, Ester R; Nielsen, Ólafur K

2016-04-01

Arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus (L.) display a sharp 3- to 5-year fluctuation in population size where lemmings are their main prey. In areas devoid of lemmings, such as Iceland, they do not experience short-term fluctuations. This study focusses on the population dynamics of the arctic fox in Iceland and how it is shaped by its main prey populations. Hunting statistics from 1958-2003 show that the population size of the arctic fox was at a maximum in the 1950s, declined to a minimum in the 1970s, and increased steadily until 2003. Analysis of the arctic fox population size and their prey populations suggests that fox numbers were limited by rock ptarmigan numbers during the decline period. The recovery of the arctic fox population was traced mostly to an increase in goose populations, and favourable climatic conditions as reflected by the Subpolar Gyre. These results underscore the flexibility of a generalist predator and its responses to shifting food resources and climate changes.

New Measurements of the Cosmic Infrared Background Fluctuations in Deep SpitzerllRAC Survey Data and their Cosmological Implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kashlinsky, A.; Arendt, R. G.; Ashby, M. L. N.; Fazio, G. G.; Mather, J.; Moseley, S. H.

2012-01-01

We extend the previous measurements of CIB fluctuations to angular scales of less than or equal to 1 degree new data obtained in the course of the 2,000+ hour Spitzer Extended Deep Survey. Two fields with completed observations of approximately equal to 12 hr/pixel are analyzed for source-subtracted CIB fluctuations at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers. The fields, EGS and UDS, cover a total area of approximately 0.25 deg and lie at high Galactic and Ecliptic latitudes, thus minimizing cirrus and zodiacal light contributions to the fluctuations. The observations have been conducted at 3 distinct epochs separated by about 6 months. As in our previous studies, the fields were assembled using the self-calibration method which is uniquely suitable for probing faint diffuse backgrounds. The assembled fields were cleaned off the bright sources down to the low shot noise levels corresponding to AB mag approximately equal to 25, Fourier-transformed and their power spectra evaluated. The noise was estimated from the time-differenced data and subtracted from the signal isolating the fluctuations remaining above the noise levels. The power spectra of the source-subtracted fields remain identical (within the observational uncertainties) for the three epochs of observations indicating that zodiacal light contributes negligibly to the fluctuations. By comparing to the measurements for the same regions at 8 micrometers we demonstrate that Galactic cirrus cannot account for the levels of the fluctuations either. The signal appears isotropically distributed on the sky as required by its origin in the CIB fluctuations. This measurement thus extends our earlier results to the important range of sub-degree scales. We find that the CIB fluctuations continue to diverge to more than 10 times those of known galaxy populations on angular scales out to less than or equal to 1 degree. The low shot noise levels remaining in the diffuse maps indicate that the large scale fluctuations arise from spatial clustering of faint sources well within the confusion noise. The spatial spectrum of these fluctuations is in reasonable agreement with simple fitting assuming that they originate in early populations spatially distributed according to the standard cosmological model (ACDM) at epochs coinciding with the first stars era. The alternative to this identification would require a new population never observed before, nor expected on theoretical grounds, but if true this would represent an important discovery in its own right.

A method for phenomenological analysis of ecological data.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, H.-W.; Morowitz, H. J.

1972-01-01

The experimental meaning of the phenomenological differential equations for a competing population is reviewed. It is concluded that it is virtually impossible to construct the differential equations precise enough for studying stability. We consider instead a method of phenomenological analysis which can be applied to a set of population curves. We suggest an ecological index calculated from the population curves, which indicates a group property of the entire system. As a function of time, the index is presumably insensitive to Volterra type fluctuations. A marked increase of the index's value however indicates a marked change of the environmental conditions. It is not easy to deduce the group property from the population curves alone, because a change in population is in general due to the superposition of external disturbances and Volterra fluctuations.

Observation of magnetic fluctuations and rapid density decay of magnetospheric plasma in Ring Trap 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saitoh, H.; Yoshida, Z.; Morikawa, J.; Yano, Y.; Mikami, H.; Kasaoka, N.; Sakamoto, W.

2012-06-01

The Ring Trap 1 device, a magnetospheric configuration generated by a levitated dipole field magnet, has created high-β (local β ˜ 70%) plasma by using electron cyclotron resonance heating (ECH). When a large population of energetic electrons is generated at low neutral gas pressure operation, high frequency magnetic fluctuations are observed. When the fluctuations are strongly excited, rapid loss of plasma was simultaneously observed especially in a quiet decay phase after the ECH microwave power is turned off. Although the plasma is confined in a strongly inhomogeneous dipole field configuration, the frequency spectra of the fluctuations have sharp frequency peaks, implying spatially localized sources of the fluctuations. The fluctuations are stabilized by decreasing the hot electron component below approximately 40%, realizing stable high-β confinement.

Effects of extreme climatic events on small-scale spatial patterns: a 20-year study of the distribution of a desert spider.

PubMed

Birkhofer, Klaus; Henschel, Joh; Lubin, Yael

2012-11-01

Individuals of most animal species are non-randomly distributed in space. Extreme climatic events are often ignored as potential drivers of distribution patterns, and the role of such events is difficult to assess. Seothyra henscheli (Araneae, Eresidae) is a sedentary spider found in the Namib dunes in Namibia. The spider constructs a sticky-edged silk web on the sand surface, connected to a vertical, silk-lined burrow. Above-ground web structures can be damaged by strong winds or heavy rainfall, and during dispersal spiders are susceptible to environmental extremes. Locations of burrows were mapped in three field sites in 16 out of 20 years from 1987 to 2007, and these grid-based data were used to identify the relationship between spatial patterns, climatic extremes and sampling year. According to Morisita's index, individuals had an aggregated distribution in most years and field sites, and Geary's C suggests clustering up to scales of 2 m. Individuals were more aggregated in years with high maximum wind speed and low annual precipitation. Our results suggest that clustering is a temporally stable property of populations that holds even under fluctuating burrow densities. Climatic extremes, however, affect the intensity of clustering behaviour: individuals seem to be better protected in field sites with many conspecific neighbours. We suggest that burrow-site selection is driven at least partly by conspecific cuing, and this behaviour may protect populations from collapse during extreme climatic events.

Cryptic impacts of temperature variability on amphibian immune function.

PubMed

Terrell, Kimberly A; Quintero, Richard P; Murray, Suzan; Kleopfer, John D; Murphy, James B; Evans, Matthew J; Nissen, Bradley D; Gratwicke, Brian

2013-11-15

Ectothermic species living in temperate regions can experience rapid and potentially stressful changes in body temperature driven by abrupt weather changes. Yet, among amphibians, the physiological impacts of short-term temperature variation are largely unknown. Using an ex situ population of Cryptobranchus alleganiensis, an aquatic North American salamander, we tested the hypothesis that naturally occurring periods of temperature variation negatively impact amphibian health, either through direct effects on immune function or by increasing physiological stress. We exposed captive salamanders to repeated cycles of temperature fluctuations recorded in the population's natal stream and evaluated behavioral and physiological responses, including plasma complement activity (i.e. bacteria killing) against Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli and Aeromonas hydrophila. The best-fit model (ΔAICc=0, wi=0.9992) revealed 70% greater P. aeruginosa killing after exposure to variable temperatures and no evidence of thermal acclimation. The same model predicted 50% increased E. coli killing, but had weaker support (ΔAICc=1.8, wi=0.2882). In contrast, plasma defenses were ineffective against A. hydrophila, and other health indicators (leukocyte ratios, growth rates and behavioral patterns) were maintained at baseline values. Our data suggest that amphibians can tolerate, and even benefit from, natural patterns of rapid warming/cooling. Specifically, temperature variation can elicit increased activity of the innate immune system. This immune response may be adaptive in an unpredictable environment, and is undetectable by conventional health indicators (and hence considered cryptic). Our findings highlight the need to consider naturalistic patterns of temperature variation when predicting species' susceptibility to climate change.

Frequency-dependent selection acting on the widely fluctuating sex ratio of the aphid Prociphilus oriens.

PubMed

Li, Y; Akimoto, S

2017-07-01

Frequency-dependent selection is a fundamental principle of adaptive sex ratio evolution in all sex ratio theories but has rarely been detected in the wild. Through long-term censuses, we confirmed large fluctuations in the population sex ratio of the aphid Prociphilus oriens and detected frequency-dependent selection acting on these fluctuations. Fluctuations in the population sex ratio were partly attributable to climatic factors during the growing season. Climatic factors likely affected the growth conditions of host plants, which in turn led to yearly fluctuations in maternal conditions and sex ratios. In the process of frequency-dependent selection, female proportion higher or lower than ca. 60% was associated with a reduction or increase in female proportion, respectively, the next year. The rearing of aphid clones in the laboratory indicated that mothers of each clone produced an increasing number of females as maternal size increased. However, the mean male number was not related to maternal size, but varied largely among clones. Given genetic variance in the ability to produce males among clones, selection should favour clones that can produce more numerous males in years with a high female proportion. Population-level sex allocation to females was on average 71%-73% for three localities and more female-biased when maternal conditions were better. This tendency was accounted for by the hypothesis of competition among foundresses rather than the hypothesis of local mate competition. We conclude that despite consistent operation of frequency-dependent selection, the sex ratio continues to fluctuate because environmental conditions always push it away from equilibrium. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; McClaren, Erica L.; Doyle, Frank I.; Titus, K.; Sage, George K.; Wilson, Robert E.; Gust, Judy R.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2012-01-01

Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue-effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.

Effects of population density on corticosterone levels of prairie voles in the field.

PubMed

Blondel, Dimitri V; Wallace, Gerard N; Calderone, Stefanie; Gorinshteyn, Marija; St Mary, Colette M; Phelps, Steven M

2016-01-01

High population density is often associated with increased levels of stress-related hormones, such as corticosterone (CORT). Prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) are a socially monogamous species known for their large population density fluctuations in the wild. Although CORT influences the social behavior of prairie voles in the lab, the effect of population density on CORT has not previously been quantified in this species in the field. We validated a non-invasive hormone assay for measuring CORT metabolites in prairie vole feces. We then used semi-natural enclosures to experimentally manipulate population density, and measured density effects on male space use and fecal CORT levels. Our enclosures generated patterns of space use and social interaction that were consistent with previous prairie vole field studies. Contrary to the positive relationship between CORT and density typical of other taxa, we found that lower population densities (80 animals/ha) produced higher fecal CORT than higher densities (240/ha). Combined with prior work in the lab and field, the data suggest that high prairie vole population densities indicate favorable environments, perhaps through reduced predation risk. Lastly, we found that field animals had lower fecal CORT levels than laboratory-living animals. The data emphasize the usefulness of prairie voles as models for integrating ecological, evolutionary, and mechanistic questions in social behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The diet of the first Europeans from Atapuerca

PubMed Central

Pérez-Pérez, Alejandro; Lozano, Marina; Romero, Alejandro; Martínez, Laura M.; Galbany, Jordi; Pinilla, Beatriz; Estebaranz-Sánchez, Ferran; Bermúdez de Castro, José María; Carbonell, Eudald; Arsuaga, Juan Luís

2017-01-01

Hominin dietary specialization is crucial to understanding the evolutionary changes of craniofacial biomechanics and the interaction of food processing methods’ effects on teeth. However, the diet-related dental wear processes of the earliest European hominins remain unknown because most of the academic attention has focused on Neandertals. Non-occlusal dental microwear provides direct evidence of the effect of chewed food particles on tooth enamel surfaces and reflects dietary signals over time. Here, we report for the first time the direct effect of dietary abrasiveness as evidenced by the buccal microwear patterns on the teeth of the Sima del Elefante-TE9 and Gran Dolina-TD6 Atapuerca hominins (1.2–0.8 million years ago − Myr) as compared with other Lower and Middle Pleistocene populations. A unique buccal microwear pattern that is found in Homo antecessor (0.96–0.8 Myr), a well-known cannibal species, indicates dietary practices that are consistent with the consumption of hard and brittle foods. Our findings confirm that the oldest European inhabitants ingested more mechanically-demanding diets than later populations because they were confronted with harsh, fluctuating environmental conditions. Furthermore, the influence of grit-laden food suggests that a high-quality meat diet from butchering processes could have fueled evolutionary changes in brain size. PMID:28240290

Topology and the universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gott, J. Richard, III

1998-09-01

Topology may play an important role in cosmology in several different ways. First, Einstein's field equations tell us about the local geometry of the universe but not about its topology. Therefore, the universe may be multiply connected. Inflation predicts that the fluctuations that made clusters and groups of galaxies arose from random quantum fluctuations in the early universe. These should be Gaussian random phase. This can be tested by quantitatively measuring the topology of large-scale structure in the universe using the genus statistic. If the original fluctuations were Gaussian random phase then the structure we see today should have a spongelike topology. A number of studies by our group and others have shown that this is indeed the case. Future tests using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey should be possible. Microwave background fluctuations should also exhibit a characteristic symmetric pattern of hot and cold spots. The COBE data are consistent with this pattern and the MAP and PLANCK satellites should provide a definitive test. If the original inflationary state was metastable then it should decay by making an infinite number of open inflationary bubble universes. This model makes a specific prediction for the power spectrum of fluctuations in the microwave background which can be checked by the MAP and PLANCK satellites. Finally, Gott and Li have proposed how a multiply connected cosmology with an early epoch of closed timelike curves might allow the universe to be its own mother.

Influence of postnatal glucocorticoids on hippocampal-dependent learning varies with elevation patterns and administration methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-22

Influence of postnatal glucocorticoids on hippocampal-dependent learning varies with elevation patterns and administration methods 5b. GRANT NUMBER...of these effects varies with the elevation patterns (level, duration, temporal fluctuation) achieved by different administration methods . In general...learning varies with elevation patterns and administration methods Dragana I. Claflin a, Kevin D. Schmidt a, Zachary D. Vallandingham b, Michal

Phylogeography of Tetrancistrum nebulosi (Monogenea, Dactylogyridae) on the host of mottled spinefoot (Siganus fuscescens) in the South China Sea, inferred from mitochondrial COI and ND2 genes.

PubMed

Wang, Ming; Yan, Shuai; Brown, Christopher L; Shaharom-Harrison, Faizah; Shi, Su-Fen; Yang, Ting-Bao

2016-11-01

To examine the phylogeographical pattern of Tetrancistrum nebulosi (Monogenea, Dactylogyridae) in the South China Sea, fragments of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 genes were obtained for 220 individuals collected from 8 localities along the southeast coast of China and 1 locality in Terengganu, Malaysia. Based on these two genes, two and three distinct clades with geographic signals were revealed on the phylogenetic trees respectively. The divergence between these clades was estimated to occur in the late Pleistocene. Analysis of molecular variance and pairwise F ST suggested a high rate of gene flow among individuals sampled from the Chinese coast, but with obvious genetic differentiation from the Malaysian population. Mismatch distribution and neutrality tests indicated that the T. nebulosi population experienced expansion in Pleistocene low sea level periods. Vicariance was considered to account for the genetic divergence between Chinese and Malaysian populations, while sea level fluctuations and mainland-island connections during glacial cycles were associated with the slight genetic divergence between the populations along the mainland coast of China and those off Sanya. On the contrary, oceanographic circulations and host migration could lead to genetic homogeneity of populations distributed along the mainland coast of China.

[Modelling of selection acting upon the pleioptropic locus in an asynchronous population].

PubMed

Zhdanov, O L; Frisman, E Ia

2014-08-01

We created and examined a mathematical model describing the size and genetic composition dynamics in a population with two age classes, where the survival of both zygotes and adult individuals is determined by one pleioptropic locus. Even under present limitations, as the outside effects of a complex multigenic system are reduced to the case of single locus, our model demonstrates a wide range of different evolutionary scenarios for possible changes in the population dynamics. An increase in the reproductive potential and survival is accompanied by a transition from stable to oscillating population numbers. However, the evolutionary growth of these parameters may be nonmonotonic and may fluctuate significantly. In the case of antagonistic pleioptropy, an increase in one of these parameters usually leads to a predictable decrease in the other. This, in turn, may even stabilize the numbers and genetic compositions of the age groups. We demonstrated that selection acting on later stages of the life cycle is accompanied by destabilization of the Hardy-Weinberg equilibriums that link allele and genotype frequencies. We obtained a balance ratio, which allowed us to compare the combined fitness of the genotypes and to demonstrate that selection leads to the exclusion of the least adapted genotypes. Initial conditionsmay in some cases determine the genetic composition and pattern of population size dynamics.

Environmental Noise, Genetic Diversity and the Evolution of Evolvability and Robustness in Model Gene Networks

PubMed Central

Steiner, Christopher F.

2012-01-01

The ability of organisms to adapt and persist in the face of environmental change is accepted as a fundamental feature of natural systems. More contentious is whether the capacity of organisms to adapt (or “evolvability”) can itself evolve and the mechanisms underlying such responses. Using model gene networks, I provide evidence that evolvability emerges more readily when populations experience positively autocorrelated environmental noise (red noise) compared to populations in stable or randomly varying (white noise) environments. Evolvability was correlated with increasing genetic robustness to effects on network viability and decreasing robustness to effects on phenotypic expression; populations whose networks displayed greater viability robustness and lower phenotypic robustness produced more additive genetic variation and adapted more rapidly in novel environments. Patterns of selection for robustness varied antagonistically with epistatic effects of mutations on viability and phenotypic expression, suggesting that trade-offs between these properties may constrain their evolutionary responses. Evolution of evolvability and robustness was stronger in sexual populations compared to asexual populations indicating that enhanced genetic variation under fluctuating selection combined with recombination load is a primary driver of the emergence of evolvability. These results provide insight into the mechanisms potentially underlying rapid adaptation as well as the environmental conditions that drive the evolution of genetic interactions. PMID:23284934

Epidemiology of the Emergent Disease Paridae pox in an Intensively Studied Wild Bird Population

PubMed Central

Lachish, Shelly; Lawson, Becki; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Sheldon, Ben C.

2012-01-01

Paridae pox, a novel avipoxvirus infection, has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease affecting wild tit species in Great Britain. The incursion of Paridae pox to a long-term study site where populations of wild tits have been monitored in detail for several decades provided a unique opportunity to obtain information on the local-scale epidemiological characteristics of this novel infection during a disease outbreak. Using captures of >8000 individual birds, we show that, within two years of initial emergence, Paridae pox had become established within the population of great tits (Parus major) reaching relatively high peak prevalence (10%), but was far less prevalent (<1%) in sympatric populations of several other closely related, abundant Paridae species. Nonlinear smoothing models revealed that the temporal pattern of prevalence among great tits was characterised by within-year fluctuations indicative of seasonal forcing of infection rates, which was likely driven by multiple environmental and demographic factors. There was individual heterogeneity in the course of infection and, although recovery was possible, diseased individuals were far less likely to be recaptured than healthy individuals, suggesting a survival cost of infection. This study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring for obtaining key epidemiological data necessary to understand disease dynamics, spread and persistence in natural populations. PMID:23185230

Immunity in the Noisy Penna Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biecek, Przemysław; Cebrat, Stanisław

We have modified the Penna standard sexual model in such a way, that the state of each individual has been determined by the individual fluctuation and the fluctuation of the environment. If the sum of both fluctuations is higher than the assumed limit, the organism dies. Additionally, the individuals can learn the trends of the environment's fluctuations, diminishing their deleterious effects. This mechanism leads to the higher mortality of the youngest individuals and the lowest mortality of individuals just before reaching the minimum reproduction age. These phenomena are observed in any mortality curve describing the age structures of human populations.

Microstructural analysis in the depth direction of a heteroepitaxial AlN thick film grown on a trench-patterned template by nanobeam X-ray diffraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shida, K.; Takeuchi, S.; Tohei, T.; Miyake, H.; Hiramatsu, K.; Sumitani, K.; Imai, Y.; Kimura, S.; Sakai, A.

2018-04-01

This work quantitatively assessed the three-dimensional distribution of crystal lattice distortions in an epitaxial AlN thick film grown on a trench-patterned template, using nanobeam X-ray diffraction. Position-dependent ω-2θ-φ mapping clearly demonstrated local tilting, spacing and twisting of lattice planes as well as fluctuations in these phenomena on a sub-micrometer scale comparable to the pitch of the trench-and-terrace patterning. Analysis of the crystal lattice distortion in the depth direction was performed using a newly developed method in which the X-ray nanobeam diffracted from the sample surface to specific depths can be selectively detected by employing a Pt wire profiler. This technique generated depth-resolved ω-2θ-φ maps confirming that fluctuations in lattice plane tilting and spacing greatly depend on the dislocation distribution and the history of the AlN epitaxial growth on the trench-patterned structure. It was also found that both fluctuations were reduced on approaching the AlN surface and, in particular, were sharply reduced at specific depths in the terrace regions. These sharp reductions are attributed to the formation of sacrificial zones with degraded crystal quality around the trenches and possibly lead to raising the crystal quality near the surface of the AlN film.

Consecutive five-year analysis of paternal and maternal gene flow and contributions of gametic heterogeneities to overall genetic composition of dispersed seeds of Pinus densiflora (Pinaceae).

PubMed

Iwaizumi, Masakazu G; Takahashi, Makoto; Isoda, Keiya; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2013-09-01

Genetic variability in monoecious woody plant populations results from the assemblage of individuals issued from asymmetrical male and female reproductive functions, produced during spatially and temporarily heterogeneous reproductive and dispersal events. Here we investigated the dispersal patterns and levels of genetic diversity and differentiation of both paternal and maternal gametes in a natural population of Pinus densiflora at the multiple-year scale as long as five consecutive years. • We analyzed the paternity and maternity for 1576 seeds and 454 candidate adult trees using nuclear DNA polymorphisms of diploid biparental embryos and haploid maternal megagametophytes at eight microsatellite loci. • Despite the low levels of genetic differentiation among gamete groups, a two-way AMOVA analysis showed that the parental origin (paternal vs. maternal gametes), the year of gamete production and their interaction had significant effects on the genetic composition of the seeds. While maternal gamete groups showed a significant FST value across the 5 years, this was not true for their paternal counterparts. Within the population, we found that the relative reproductive contributions of the paternal vs. the maternal parent differed among adult trees, the maternal contributions showing a larger year-to-year fluctuation. • The overall genetic variability of dispersed seeds appeared to result from two sources of heterogeneity: the difference between paternal and maternal patterns of reproduction and gamete dispersal and year-to-year heterogeneity of reproduction of adult trees, especially in their maternal reproduction.

Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

2015-01-01

Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

Signal Recognition by Green Treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) and Cope’s Gray Treefrogs (Hyla chrysoscelis) in Naturally Fluctuating Noise

PubMed Central

Vélez, Alejandro; Bee, Mark A.

2013-01-01

This study tested three hypotheses about the ability of female frogs to exploit temporal fluctuations in the level of background noise to overcome the problem of recognizing male advertisement calls in noisy breeding choruses. Phonotaxis tests with green treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) and Cope’s gray treefrogs (Hyla chrysoscelis) were used to measure thresholds for recognizing calls in the presence of noise maskers with (i) no level fluctuations, (ii) random fluctuations, or level fluctuations characteristic of (iii) conspecific choruses and (iv) heterospecific choruses. The dip-listening hypothesis predicted lower signal recognition thresholds in the presence of fluctuating maskers compared with non-fluctuating maskers. Support for the dip listening hypothesis was weak; only Cope’s gray treefrogs experienced dip listening and only in the presence of randomly fluctuating maskers. The natural soundscapes advantage hypothesis predicted lower recognition thresholds when level fluctuations resembled those of natural soundscapes compared with artificial fluctuations. This hypothesis was rejected. In noise backgrounds with natural fluctuations, the species-specific advantage hypothesis predicted lower recognition thresholds when fluctuations resembled species-specific patterns of conspecific soundscapes. No evidence was found to support this hypothesis. These results corroborate previous findings showing that Cope’s gray treefrogs, but not green treefrogs, experience dip listening under some noise conditions. Together, the results suggest level fluctuations in the soundscape of natural breeding choruses may present few dip-listening opportunities. The findings of this study provide little support for the hypothesis that receivers are adapted to exploit level fluctuations of natural soundscapes in recognizing communication signals. PMID:23106802

Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Jonas; Melbinger, Anna; Frey, Erwin

2012-02-01

Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation.

Prickly business: abundance of sea urchins on breakwaters and coral reefs in Dubai.

PubMed

Bauman, Andrew G; Dunshea, Glenn; Feary, David A; Hoey, Andrew S

2016-04-30

Echinometra mathaei is a common echinoid on tropical reefs and where abundant plays an important role in the control of algal communities. Despite high prevalence of E. mathaei on southern Persian/Arabian Gulf reefs, their abundance and distribution is poorly known. Spatial and temporal patterns in population abundance were examined at 12 sites between breakwater and natural reef habitats in Dubai (UAE) every 3 months from 2008 to 2010. Within the breakwater habitat, densities were greatest at shallow wave-exposed sites, and reduced with both decreasing wave-exposure and increasing depth. Interestingly, E. mathaei were significantly more abundant on exposed breakwaters than natural reef sites, presumably due to differences in habitat structure and benthic cover. Population abundances differed seasonally, with peak abundances during summer (July-September) and lower abundances in winter (December-February). Seasonal fluctuations are likely the result of peak annual recruitment pulses coupled with increased fish predation from summer to winter. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial variation of hematozoans in Scandinavian willow warblers.

PubMed

Bensch, Staffan; Akesson, Susanne

2003-04-01

We examined temporal and geographical distribution of Haemoproteus sp. and Plasmodium sp. parasites in Swedish willow warblers, Phylloscopus trochilus. Parasite lineages were detected with molecular methods in 556 birds from 41 sites distributed at distances up to 1,500 km. Two mitochondrial lineages of Haemoproteus sp. were detected, WW1 in 56 birds and WW2 in 75 birds, that differed by 5.2% sequence divergence. We discuss the reasons behind the observed pattern of variation and identify 3 possible causes: (1) variation in the geographic distribution of the vector species, (2) the degree of parasite sharing with other bird species coexisting with the willow warbler, and (3) timing of transmission. Our results support a fundamental and rarely tested assumption of the now classical Hamilton-Zuk hypothesis of sexual selection, namely, that these parasites vary in both time and space. Such fluctuations of parasites and the selection pressure they supposedly impose on the host population are likely to maintain variation in immune system genes in the host population.

Analysis of Meniscus Fluctuation in a Continuous Casting Slab Mold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kaitian; Liu, Jianhua; Cui, Heng; Xiao, Chao

2018-06-01

A water model of slab mold was established to analyze the microscopic and macroscopic fluctuation of meniscus. The fast Fourier transform and wavelet entropy were adopted to analyze the wave amplitude, frequency, and components of fluctuation. The flow patterns under the meniscus were measured by using particle image velocimetry measurement and then the mechanisms of meniscus fluctuation were discussed. The results reflected that wavelet entropy had multi-scale and statistical properties, and it was suitable for the study of meniscus fluctuation details both in time and frequency domain. The basic wave, frequency of which exceeding 1 Hz in the condition of no mold oscillation, was demonstrated in this work. In fact, three basic waves were found: long-wave with low frequency, middle-wave with middle frequency, and short-wave with high frequency. In addition, the upper roll flow in mold had significant effect on meniscus fluctuation. When the position of flow impinged was far from the meniscus, long-wave dominated the fluctuation and the stability of meniscus was enhanced. However, when the velocity of flow was increased, the short-wave dominated the meniscus fluctuation and the meniscus stability was decreased.

Topography and Radiative Forcing Patterns on Glaciers in the Karakoram Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobreva, I. D.; Bishop, M. P.; Liu, J. C.; Liang, D.

2015-12-01

Glaciers in the western Himalaya exhibit significant spatial variations in morphology and dynamics. Climate, topography and debris cover variations are thought to significantly affect glacier fluctuations and glacier sensitivity to climate change, although the role of topography and radiative forcing have not been adequately characterized and related to glacier fluctuations and dynamics. Consequently, we examined the glaciers in the Karakoram Himalaya, as they exhibit high spatial variability in glacier fluctuation rates and ice dynamics including flow velocity and surging. Specifically, we wanted to examine the relationships between these glacier characteristics and temporal patterns of surface irradiance over the ablation season. To accomplish this, we developed and used a rigorous GIS-based solar radiative transfer model that accounts for the direct and diffuse-skylight irradiance components. The model accounts for multiple topographic effects on the magnitude of irradiance reaching glacier surfaces. We specifically used the ASTER GDEM digital elevation model for irradiance simulations. We then examined temporal patterns of irradiance at the grid-cell level to identify the dominant patterns that were used to train a 3-layer artificial neural network. Our results demonstrate that there are unique spatial and temporal patterns associated with downwasting and surging glaciers, and that these patterns partially account for the spatial distribution of advancing and retreating glaciers. Lower-altitude terminus regions of surging glaciers exhibited relatively low surface irradiance values that decreased in magnitude with time, demonstrating that high-velocity surging glaciers facilitate relief production and exhibit steeper surface irradiance gradients with altitude. Collectively, these results demonstrate the important role that local and regional topography play in governing climate-glacier dynamics in the Himalaya.

Indian Ocean dipole and rainfall drive a Moran effect in East Africa malaria transmission.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Satake, Akiko; Hashizume, Masahiro; Minakawa, Noboru

2012-06-15

Patterns of concerted fluctuation in populations-synchrony-can reveal impacts of climatic variability on disease dynamics. We examined whether malaria transmission has been synchronous in an area with a common rainfall regime and sensitive to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a global climatic phenomenon affecting weather patterns in East Africa. We studied malaria synchrony in 5 15-year long (1984-1999) monthly time series that encompass an altitudinal gradient, approximately 1000 m to 2000 m, along Lake Victoria basin. We quantified the association patterns between rainfall and malaria time series at different altitudes and across the altitudinal gradient encompassed by the study locations. We found a positive seasonal association of rainfall with malaria, which decreased with altitude. By contrast, IOD and interannual rainfall impacts on interannual disease cycles increased with altitude. Our analysis revealed a nondecaying synchrony of similar magnitude in both malaria and rainfall, as expected under a Moran effect, supporting a role for climatic variability on malaria epidemic frequency, which might reflect rainfall-mediated changes in mosquito abundance. Synchronous malaria epidemics call for the integration of knowledge on the forcing of malaria transmission by environmental variability to develop robust malaria control and elimination programs.

Lack of maintenance of gait pattern as measured by instrumental methods suggests psychogenic gait.

PubMed

Merello, Marcelo; Ballesteros, Diego; Rossi, Malco; Arena, Julieta; Crespo, Marcos; Cervio, Andres; Cuello Oderiz, Carolina; Rivero, Alberto; Cerquetti, Daniel; Risk, Marcelo; Balej, Jorge

2012-01-01

Fluctuation is a common feature of all psychogenic gait disorder (PGD) patterns. Whether this fluctuation involves only the degree of impairment or whether it affects the gait pattern itself remains an interesting question. We hypothesize that, on repeated measurements, both normal and abnormal gait may present quantitative differences while maintaining their basic underlying pattern; conversely, in psychogenic gait, the basic pattern appears not to be preserved. Using an optoelectronic system, data acquired from 19 normal subjects and 66 patients were applied to train a neural network (NN) and subsequently classify gait patterns into four different groups (normal, ataxic, spastic-paraparetic and parkinsonian). Five patients who fulfilled clinical criteria for psychogenic gait and six controls were then prospectively evaluated on two separate occasions, three months apart. Normal controls and ataxic, parkinsonian or spastic patients were correctly identified by the NN, and categorized within the corresponding groups at baseline as well as at a three-month follow-up evaluation. NN analysis showed that after three months, no PGD patient preserved the gait pattern detected at baseline, even though this finding was not clinically apparent. Modification of gait pattern detected by repeated kinematic measurement and NN analysis could suggest the presence of PGD, particularly in difficult-to-diagnose cases.

Ionospheric irregularities and acoustic/gravity wave activity above low-latitude thunderstorms

DOE PAGES

Lay, Erin H.

2017-12-18

Ionospheric irregularities due to plasma bubbles, scintillation, and acoustic/gravity waves are studied in the low-latitude ionosphere in relation to thunderstorm activity. Ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements from the Low Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (LISN) and lightning measurements from the World-Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) are compared during two summer months and two winter months in 2013. Large amplitude fluctuations in TEC are found to have a strongly-peaked diurnal pattern in the late evening and nighttime summer ionosphere. The maximum magnitude and coverage area of these fluctuations increases as thunderstorm area increases. Summertime mid-amplitude fluctuations do not exhibit the samemore » diurnal variation, but do increase in magnitude and coverage area as thunderstorm area increases. Wintertime ionospheric fluctuations do not appear to be related to thunderstorm activity. Lastly, these findings show that thunderstorms have an observable effect on magnitude and coverage area of ionospheric fluctuations.« less

Ionospheric irregularities and acoustic/gravity wave activity above low-latitude thunderstorms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lay, Erin H.

Ionospheric irregularities due to plasma bubbles, scintillation, and acoustic/gravity waves are studied in the low-latitude ionosphere in relation to thunderstorm activity. Ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements from the Low Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (LISN) and lightning measurements from the World-Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) are compared during two summer months and two winter months in 2013. Large amplitude fluctuations in TEC are found to have a strongly-peaked diurnal pattern in the late evening and nighttime summer ionosphere. The maximum magnitude and coverage area of these fluctuations increases as thunderstorm area increases. Summertime mid-amplitude fluctuations do not exhibit the samemore » diurnal variation, but do increase in magnitude and coverage area as thunderstorm area increases. Wintertime ionospheric fluctuations do not appear to be related to thunderstorm activity. Lastly, these findings show that thunderstorms have an observable effect on magnitude and coverage area of ionospheric fluctuations.« less

Ionospheric Irregularities and Acoustic/Gravity Wave Activity Above Low-Latitude Thunderstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lay, Erin H.

2018-01-01

Ionospheric irregularities due to plasma bubbles, scintillation, and acoustic/gravity waves are studied in the low-latitude ionosphere in relation to thunderstorm activity. Ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements from the Low Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network and lightning measurements from the World-Wide Lightning Location Network are compared during two summer months and two winter months in 2013. Large amplitude fluctuations in TEC are found to have a strongly peaked diurnal pattern in the late evening and nighttime summer ionosphere. The maximum magnitude and coverage area of these fluctuations increases as thunderstorm area increases. Summertime midamplitude fluctuations do not exhibit the same diurnal variation but do increase in magnitude and coverage area as thunderstorm area increases. Wintertime ionospheric fluctuations do not appear to be related to thunderstorm activity. These findings show that thunderstorms have an observable effect on magnitude and coverage area of ionospheric fluctuations.

Chemical potential fluctuations in topological insulator (Bi0.5Sb0.5)2Te3-films visualized by photocurrent spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastl, Christoph; Seifert, Paul; He, Xiaoyue; Wu, Kehui; Li, Yongqing; Holleitner, Alexander

2015-06-01

We investigate the photocurrent properties of the topological insulator (Bi0.5Sb0.5)2Te3 on SrTiO3-substrates. We find reproducible, submicron photocurrent patterns generated by long-range chemical potential fluctuations, occurring predominantly at the topological insulator/substrate interface. We fabricate nano-plowed constrictions which comprise single potential fluctuations. Hereby, we can quantify the magnitude of the disorder potential to be in the meV range. The results further suggest a dominating photo-thermoelectric current generated in the surface states in such nanoscale constrictions.

Ecological Dynamics of Two Distinct Viruses Infecting Marine Eukaryotic Decomposer Thraustochytrids (Labyrinthulomycetes, Stramenopiles)

PubMed Central

Takao, Yoshitake; Tomaru, Yuji; Nagasaki, Keizo; Honda, Daiske

2015-01-01

Thraustochytrids are cosmopolitan osmotrophic or heterotrophic microorganisms that are considered as important decomposers in coastal ecosystems. However, because of a lack of estimation method for each genus or systematic group of them, relatively little is known about their ecology in situ. Previously, we reported two distinct types of virus infecting thraustochytrids (AuRNAV: reported as SssRNAV, and SmDNAV) suggesting they have wide distributions in the host-virus systems of coastal environments. Here we conducted a field survey from 2004 through 2005 to show the fluctuation pattern of thraustochytrids and their viruses in Hiroshima Bay, Japan. During the field survey, we monitored the dynamics of the two types of thraustochytrid-infecting virus: small viruses causing lysis of Aurantiochytrium sp. NIBH N1-27 (identified as AuRNAV) and the large viruses of Sicyoidochytrium minutum NBRC 102975 (similar to SmDNAV in physiology and morphology). Fluctuation patterns of the two distinct types of virus were different from each other. This may reflect the difference in the preference of organic substrates; i.e., it may be likely the host of AuRNAV (Aurantiochytrium sp.) increases utilizing algal dead bodies or feeble cells as the virus shows a large increase in abundance following raphidophyte blooms; whereas, the trophic nutrient supply for S. minutum may primarily depend on other constantly-supplied organic compounds because it did not show any significant change in abundance throughout the survey. Further study concerning the population composition of thraustochytrids and their viruses may demonstrate the microbial ecology (especially concerning the detrital food web) of marine environments. PMID:26203654

Ecological Dynamics of Two Distinct Viruses Infecting Marine Eukaryotic Decomposer Thraustochytrids (Labyrinthulomycetes, Stramenopiles).

PubMed

Takao, Yoshitake; Tomaru, Yuji; Nagasaki, Keizo; Honda, Daiske

2015-01-01

Thraustochytrids are cosmopolitan osmotrophic or heterotrophic microorganisms that are considered as important decomposers in coastal ecosystems. However, because of a lack of estimation method for each genus or systematic group of them, relatively little is known about their ecology in situ. Previously, we reported two distinct types of virus infecting thraustochytrids (AuRNAV: reported as SssRNAV, and SmDNAV) suggesting they have wide distributions in the host-virus systems of coastal environments. Here we conducted a field survey from 2004 through 2005 to show the fluctuation pattern of thraustochytrids and their viruses in Hiroshima Bay, Japan. During the field survey, we monitored the dynamics of the two types of thraustochytrid-infecting virus: small viruses causing lysis of Aurantiochytrium sp. NIBH N1-27 (identified as AuRNAV) and the large viruses of Sicyoidochytrium minutum NBRC 102975 (similar to SmDNAV in physiology and morphology). Fluctuation patterns of the two distinct types of virus were different from each other. This may reflect the difference in the preference of organic substrates; i.e., it may be likely the host of AuRNAV (Aurantiochytrium sp.) increases utilizing algal dead bodies or feeble cells as the virus shows a large increase in abundance following raphidophyte blooms; whereas, the trophic nutrient supply for S. minutum may primarily depend on other constantly-supplied organic compounds because it did not show any significant change in abundance throughout the survey. Further study concerning the population composition of thraustochytrids and their viruses may demonstrate the microbial ecology (especially concerning the detrital food web) of marine environments.

Parasite-mediated selection drives an immunogenetic trade-off in plains zebras (Equus quagga)

PubMed Central

Kamath, Pauline L.; Turner, Wendy C.; Küsters, Martina; Getz, Wayne M.

2014-01-01

Pathogen evasion of the host immune system is a key force driving extreme polymorphism in genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). Although this gene family is well characterized in structure and function, there is still much debate surrounding the mechanisms by which MHC diversity is selectively maintained. Many studies have investigated relationships between MHC variation and specific pathogens, and have found mixed support for and against the hypotheses of heterozygote advantage, frequency-dependent or fluctuating selection. Few, however, have focused on the selective effects of multiple parasite types on host immunogenetic patterns. Here, we examined relationships between variation in the equine MHC gene, ELA-DRA, and both gastrointestinal (GI) and ectoparasitism in plains zebras (Equus quagga). Specific alleles present at opposing population frequencies had antagonistic effects, with rare alleles associated with increased GI parasitism and common alleles with increased tick burdens. These results support a frequency-dependent mechanism, but are also consistent with fluctuating selection. Maladaptive GI parasite ‘susceptibility alleles’ were reduced in frequency, suggesting that these parasites may play a greater selective role at this locus. Heterozygote advantage, in terms of allele mutational divergence, also predicted decreased GI parasite burden in genotypes with a common allele. We conclude that an immunogenetic trade-off affects resistance/susceptibility to parasites in this system. Because GI and ectoparasites do not directly interact within hosts, our results uniquely show that antagonistic parasite interactions can be indirectly modulated through the host immune system. This study highlights the importance of investigating the role of multiple parasites in shaping patterns of host immunogenetic variation. PMID:24718761

Slow Spatial Recruitment of Neocortex during Secondarily Generalized Seizures and Its Relation to Surgical Outcome

PubMed Central

Martinet, Louis-Emmanuel; Ahmed, Omar J.; Lepage, Kyle Q.; Cash, Sydney S.

2015-01-01

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of brain activity is crucial for inferring the underlying synaptic and nonsynaptic mechanisms of brain dysfunction. Focal seizures with secondary generalization are traditionally considered to begin in a limited spatial region and spread to connected areas, which can include both pathological and normal brain tissue. The mechanisms underlying this spread are important to our understanding of seizures and to improve therapies for surgical intervention. Here we study the properties of seizure recruitment—how electrical brain activity transitions to large voltage fluctuations characteristic of spike-and-wave seizures. We do so using invasive subdural electrode arrays from a population of 16 patients with pharmacoresistant epilepsy. We find an average delay of ∼30 s for a broad area of cortex (8 × 8 cm) to be recruited into the seizure, at an estimated speed of ∼4 mm/s. The spatiotemporal characteristics of recruitment reveal two categories of patients: one in which seizure recruitment of neighboring cortical regions follows a spatially organized pattern consistent from seizure to seizure, and a second group without consistent spatial organization of activity during recruitment. The consistent, organized recruitment correlates with a more regular, compared with small-world, connectivity pattern in simulation and successful surgical treatment of epilepsy. We propose that an improved understanding of how the seizure recruits brain regions into large amplitude voltage fluctuations provides novel information to improve surgical treatment of epilepsy and highlights the slow spread of massive local activity across a vast extent of cortex during seizure. PMID:26109670

Parasite-mediated selection drives an immunogenetic tradeoff in plains zebra (Equus quagga)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kamath, Pauline L.; Turner, Wendy C.; Küsters, Martina; Getz, Wayne M.

2014-01-01

Pathogen evasion of the host immune system is a key force driving extreme polymorphism in genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). Although this gene family is well characterized in structure and function, there is still much debate surrounding the mechanisms by which MHC diversity is selectively maintained. Many studies have investigated relationships between MHC variation and specific pathogens, and have found mixed support for and against the hypotheses of heterozygote advantage, frequency-dependent or fluctuating selection. Few, however, have focused on the selective effects of multiple parasite types on host immunogenetic patterns. Here, we examined relationships between variation in the equine MHC gene, ELA-DRA, and both gastrointestinal (GI) and ectoparasitism in plains zebras (Equus quagga). Specific alleles present at opposing population frequencies had antagonistic effects, with rare alleles associated with increased GI parasitism and common alleles with increased tick burdens. These results support a frequency-dependent mechanism, but are also consistent with fluctuating selection. Maladaptive GI parasite ‘susceptibility alleles’ were reduced in frequency, suggesting that these parasites may play a greater selective role at this locus. Heterozygote advantage, in terms of allele mutational divergence, also predicted decreased GI parasite burden in genotypes with a common allele. We conclude that an immunogenetic trade-off affects resistance/susceptibility to parasites in this system. Because GI and ectoparasites do not directly interact within hosts, our results uniquely show that antagonistic parasite interactions can be indirectly modulated through the host immune system. This study highlights the importance of investigating the role of multiple parasites in shaping patterns of host immunogenetic variation.

Ambulatory blood pressure profiles in familial dysautonomia.

PubMed

Goldberg, Lior; Bar-Aluma, Bat-El; Krauthammer, Alex; Efrati, Ori; Sharabi, Yehonatan

2018-02-12

Familial dysautonomia (FD) is a rare genetic disease that involves extreme blood pressure fluctuations secondary to afferent baroreflex failure. The diurnal blood pressure profile, including the average, variability, and day-night difference, may have implications for long-term end organ damage. The purpose of this study was to describe the circadian pattern of blood pressure in the FD population and relationships with renal and pulmonary function, use of medications, and overall disability. We analyzed 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring recordings in 22 patients with FD. Information about medications, disease severity, renal function (estimated glomerular filtration, eGFR), pulmonary function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s, FEV1) and an index of blood pressure variability (standard deviation of systolic pressure) were analyzed. The mean (± SEM) 24-h blood pressure was 115 ± 5.6/72 ± 2.0 mmHg. The diurnal blood pressure variability was high (daytime systolic pressure standard deviation 22.4 ± 1.5 mmHg, nighttime 17.2 ± 1.6), with a high frequency of a non-dipping pattern (16 patients, 73%). eGFR, use of medications, FEV1, and disability scores were unrelated to the degree of blood pressure variability or to dipping status. This FD cohort had normal average 24-h blood pressure, fluctuating blood pressure, and a high frequency of non-dippers. Although there was evidence of renal dysfunction based on eGFR and proteinuria, the ABPM profile was unrelated to the measures of end organ dysfunction or to reported disability.

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Theory of domain patterns in systems with long-range interactions of Coulomb type.

PubMed

Muratov, C B

2002-12-01

We develop a theory of the domain patterns in systems with competing short-range attractive interactions and long-range repulsive Coulomb interactions. We take an energetic approach, in which patterns are considered as critical points of a mean-field free energy functional. Close to the microphase separation transition, this functional takes on a universal form, allowing us to treat a number of diverse physical situations within a unified framework. We use asymptotic analysis to study domain patterns with sharp interfaces. We derive an interfacial representation of the pattern's free energy which remains valid in the fluctuating system, with a suitable renormalization of the Coulomb interaction's coupling constant. We also derive integro-differential equations describing stationary domain patterns of arbitrary shapes and their thermodynamic stability, coming from the first and second variations of the interfacial free energy. We show that the length scale of a stable domain pattern must obey a certain scaling law with the strength of the Coulomb interaction. We analyzed the existence and stability of localized (spots, stripes, annuli) and periodic (lamellar, hexagonal) patterns in two dimensions. We show that these patterns are metastable in certain ranges of the parameters and that they can undergo morphological instabilities leading to the formation of more complex patterns. We discuss nucleation of the domain patterns by thermal fluctuations and pattern formation scenarios for various thermal quenches. We argue that self-induced disorder is an intrinsic property of the domain patterns in the systems under consideration.

Distinct patterns of seasonal Greenland glacier velocity

PubMed Central

Moon, Twila; Joughin, Ian; Smith, Ben; van den Broeke, Michiel R; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Usher, Mika

2014-01-01

Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss due to ice dynamics requires a complete understanding of spatiotemporal velocity fluctuations and related control mechanisms. We present a 5 year record of seasonal velocity measurements for 55 marine-terminating glaciers distributed around the ice sheet margin, along with ice-front position and runoff data sets for each glacier. Among glaciers with substantial speed variations, we find three distinct seasonal velocity patterns. One pattern indicates relatively high glacier sensitivity to ice-front position. The other two patterns are more prevalent and appear to be meltwater controlled. These patterns reveal differences in which some subglacial systems likely transition seasonally from inefficient, distributed hydrologic networks to efficient, channelized drainage, while others do not. The difference may be determined by meltwater availability, which in some regions may be influenced by perennial firn aquifers. Our results highlight the need to understand subglacial meltwater availability on an ice sheet-wide scale to predict future dynamic changes. Key Points First multi-region seasonal velocity measurements show regional differences Seasonal velocity fluctuations on most glaciers appear meltwater controlled Seasonal development of efficient subglacial drainage geographically divided PMID:25821275

Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth: a multivariate and causality analysis for Ghana, 1971-2013.

PubMed

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2016-07-01

In this study, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth in Ghana was investigated from 1971 to 2013 by comparing the vector error correction model (VECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Prior to testing for Granger causality based on VECM, the study tested for unit roots, Johansen's multivariate co-integration and performed a variance decomposition analysis using Cholesky's technique. Evidence from the variance decomposition shows that 21 % of future shocks in carbon dioxide emissions are due to fluctuations in energy use, 8 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in GDP, and 6 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in population. There was evidence of bidirectional causality running from energy use to GDP and a unidirectional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy use, carbon dioxide emissions to GDP, carbon dioxide emissions to population, and population to energy use. Evidence from the long-run elasticities shows that a 1 % increase in population in Ghana will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.72 %. There was evidence of short-run equilibrium relationship running from energy use to carbon dioxide emissions and GDP to carbon dioxide emissions. As a policy implication, the addition of renewable energy and clean energy technologies into Ghana's energy mix can help mitigate climate change and its impact in the future.

Signal recognition by green treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) and Cope's gray treefrogs (Hyla chrysoscelis) in naturally fluctuating noise.

PubMed

Vélez, Alejandro; Bee, Mark A

2013-05-01

This study tested three hypotheses about the ability of female frogs to exploit temporal fluctuations in the level of background noise to overcome the problem of recognizing male advertisement calls in noisy breeding choruses. Phonotaxis tests with green treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) and Cope's gray treefrogs (Hyla chrysoscelis) were used to measure thresholds for recognizing calls in the presence of noise maskers with (a) no level fluctuations, (b) random fluctuations, or level fluctuations characteristic of (c) conspecific choruses and (d) heterospecific choruses. The dip-listening hypothesis predicted lower signal recognition thresholds in the presence of fluctuating maskers compared with nonfluctuating maskers. Support for the dip-listening hypothesis was weak; only Cope's gray treefrogs experienced dip listening and only in the presence of randomly fluctuating maskers. The natural soundscapes advantage hypothesis predicted lower recognition thresholds when level fluctuations resembled those of natural soundscapes compared with artificial fluctuations. This hypothesis was rejected. In noise backgrounds with natural fluctuations, the species-specific advantage hypothesis predicted lower recognition thresholds when fluctuations resembled species-specific patterns of conspecific soundscapes. No evidence was found to support this hypothesis. These results corroborate previous findings showing that Cope's gray treefrogs, but not green treefrogs, experience dip listening under some noise conditions. Together, the results suggest level fluctuations in the soundscape of natural breeding choruses may present few dip-listening opportunities. The findings of this study provide little support for the hypothesis that receivers are adapted to exploit level fluctuations of natural soundscapes in recognizing communication signals.

Salinity shifts in marine sediment: Importance of number of fluctuation rather than their intensities on bacterial denitrifying community.

PubMed

Zaghmouri, Imen; Michotey, Valerie D; Armougom, Fabrice; Guasco, Sophie; Bonin, Patricia C

2018-05-01

The sensitivity of denitrifying community to salinity fluctuations was studied in microcosms filled with marine coastal sediments subjected to different salinity disturbances over time (sediment under frequent salinity changes vs sediment with "stable" salinity pattern). Upon short-term salinity shift, denitrification rate and denitrifiers abundance showed high resistance whatever the sediment origin is. Denitrifying community adapted to frequent salinity changes showed high resistance when salinity increases, with a dynamic nosZ relative expression level. Marine sediment denitrifying community, characterized by more stable pattern, was less resistant when salinity decreases. However, after two successive variations of salinity, it shifted toward the characteristic community of fluctuating conditions, with larger proportion of Pseudomonas-nosZ, exhibiting an increase of nosZ relative expression level. The impact of long-term salinity variation upon bacterial community was confirmed at ribosomal level with a higher percentage of Pseudomonas and lower proportion of nosZII clade genera. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spontaneous attentional fluctuations in impaired states and pathological conditions: a neurobiological hypothesis.

PubMed

Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J S; Castellanos, F Xavier

2007-01-01

In traditional accounts, fluctuations in sustained and focused attention and associated attentional lapses during task performance are regarded as the result of failures of top-down and effortful higher order processes. The current paper reviews an alternative hypothesis: that spontaneous patterns of very low frequency (<0.1 Hz) coherence within a specific brain network ('default-mode network') thought to support a pattern of generalized task-non-specific cognition during rest, can persist or intrude into periods of active task-specific processing, producing periodic fluctuations in attention that compete with goal-directed activity. We review recent studies supporting the existence of the resting state default network, examine the mechanism underpinning it, describe the consequent temporally distinctive effects on cognition and behaviour of default-mode interference into active processing periods, and suggest some factors that might predispose to it. Finally, we explore the putative role of default-mode interference as a cause of performance variability in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

Multiple abiotic stimuli are integrated in the regulation of rice gene expression under field conditions

PubMed Central

Plessis, Anne; Hafemeister, Christoph; Wilkins, Olivia; Gonzaga, Zennia Jean; Meyer, Rachel Sarah; Pires, Inês; Müller, Christian; Septiningsih, Endang M; Bonneau, Richard; Purugganan, Michael

2015-01-01

Plants rely on transcriptional dynamics to respond to multiple climatic fluctuations and contexts in nature. We analyzed the genome-wide gene expression patterns of rice (Oryza sativa) growing in rainfed and irrigated fields during two distinct tropical seasons and determined simple linear models that relate transcriptomic variation to climatic fluctuations. These models combine multiple environmental parameters to account for patterns of expression in the field of co-expressed gene clusters. We examined the similarities of our environmental models between tropical and temperate field conditions, using previously published data. We found that field type and macroclimate had broad impacts on transcriptional responses to environmental fluctuations, especially for genes involved in photosynthesis and development. Nevertheless, variation in solar radiation and temperature at the timescale of hours had reproducible effects across environmental contexts. These results provide a basis for broad-based predictive modeling of plant gene expression in the field. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08411.001 PMID:26609814

Transverse single-file diffusion and enhanced longitudinal diffusion near a subcritical bifurcation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessup, Tommy; Coste, Christophe; Saint Jean, Michel

2018-05-01

A quasi-one-dimensional system of repelling particles undergoes a configurational phase transition when the transverse confining potential decreases. Below a threshold, it becomes energetically favorable for the system to adopt one of two staggered raw patterns, symmetric with respect to the system axis. This transition is a subcritical pitchfork bifurcation for short range interactions. As a consequence, the homogeneous zigzag pattern is unstable in a finite zigzag amplitude range [hC 1,hC 2] . We exhibit strong qualitative effects of the subcriticality on the thermal motions of the particles. When the zigzag amplitude is close enough to the limits hC 1 and hC 2, a transverse vibrational soft mode occurs which induces a strongly subdiffusive behavior of the transverse fluctuations, similar to single-file diffusion. On the contrary, the longitudinal fluctuations are enhanced, with a diffusion coefficient which is more than doubled. Conversely, a simple measurement of the thermal fluctuations allows a precise determination of the bifurcation thresholds.

Population dynamics with a mixed type of sexual and asexual reproduction in a fluctuating environment

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Carassius gibelio, a cyprinid fish from Eurasia, has the ability to reproduce both sexually and asexually. This fish is also known as an invasive species which colonized almost all continental Europe, most likely originating from Asia and Eastern Europe. Populations of both sexually and asexually reproducing individuals exist in sympatry. In this study we try to elucidate the advantages of such a mixed type of reproduction. We investigate the dynamics of two sympatric populations with sexual and asexual reproduction in a periodically fluctuating environment. We define an individual-based computational model in which genotypes are represented by L loci, and the environment is composed of L resources for which the two populations compete. Results Our model demonstrates advantageous population dynamics where the optimal percentage of asexual reproduction depends on selection strength, on the number of selected loci and on the timescale of environmental fluctuations. We show that the sexual reproduction is necessary for "generating" fit genotypes, while the asexual reproduction is suitable for "amplifying" them. The simulations show that the optimal percentage of asexual reproduction increases with the length of the environment stability period and decrease with the strength of the selection and the number of loci. Conclusions In this paper we addressed the advantages of a mixed type of sexual and asexual reproduction in a changing environment and explored the idea that a species that is able to adapt itself to environmental fluctuation can easily colonize a new habitat. Our results could provide a possible explanation for the rapid and efficient invasion of species with a variable ratio of sexual and asexual reproduction such as Carassius gibelio. PMID:22489797

Harnessing quantum transport by transient chaos.

PubMed

Yang, Rui; Huang, Liang; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso; Pecora, Louis M

2013-03-01

Chaos has long been recognized to be generally advantageous from the perspective of control. In particular, the infinite number of unstable periodic orbits embedded in a chaotic set and the intrinsically sensitive dependence on initial conditions imply that a chaotic system can be controlled to a desirable state by using small perturbations. Investigation of chaos control, however, was largely limited to nonlinear dynamical systems in the classical realm. In this paper, we show that chaos may be used to modulate or harness quantum mechanical systems. To be concrete, we focus on quantum transport through nanostructures, a problem of considerable interest in nanoscience, where a key feature is conductance fluctuations. We articulate and demonstrate that chaos, more specifically transient chaos, can be effective in modulating the conductance-fluctuation patterns. Experimentally, this can be achieved by applying an external gate voltage in a device of suitable geometry to generate classically inaccessible potential barriers. Adjusting the gate voltage allows the characteristics of the dynamical invariant set responsible for transient chaos to be varied in a desirable manner which, in turn, can induce continuous changes in the statistical characteristics of the quantum conductance-fluctuation pattern. To understand the physical mechanism of our scheme, we develop a theory based on analyzing the spectrum of the generalized non-Hermitian Hamiltonian that includes the effect of leads, or electronic waveguides, as self-energy terms. As the escape rate of the underlying non-attracting chaotic set is increased, the imaginary part of the complex eigenenergy becomes increasingly large so that pointer states are more difficult to form, making smoother the conductance-fluctuation pattern.

Survival of adult murres and kittiwakes in relation to forage fish abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piatt, John F.

2000-01-01

Some seabird populations damaged by the Exxon Valdez oil spill continue to decline or are not recovering. In order to understand the ultimate cause of seabird population fluctuations, we must measure productivity, recruitment, and adult survival. Recent APEX studies focused on measuring productivity only. Recruitment measurement demands an unrealistic study duration. We propose to augment current studies in lower Cook Inlet that relate breeding success and foraging effort to fluctuations in forage fish density by using banding and resighting to quantify the survival of adult common murres and black-legged kittiwakes.

On the equilibrium between proton kappa distribution and compressible kinetic Alfvenic fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, P. H.

2017-12-01

Protons with a quasi inverse power law energetic population featuring the property f v-α, with α close to 5, are pervasively observed in the heliosphere. While many theoretical attempts have been made in order to describe such a feature, the so-called pump acceleration mechanism put forth by Fisk & Gloeckler is one of the most prominent theories. Their mechanism involves the low-frequency compressional fluctuations accelerating the protons. This presentation aims to reformulate the problem from the perspective of the steady state solution of the self-consistent plasma kinetic theory involving compressible kinetic Alfvenic fluctuations. By considering the steady state proton particle kinetic equation and quasi-linear wave kinetic for the kinetic Alfvenic turbulence we seek to obtain concomitant solutions for both proton velocity distribution function and the spectral intensity for kinetic Alfvenic fluctuation. It is found that the kappa distribution for the protons is a legitimate, if not unique, solution. The steady state spectrum of kinetic Alfvenic fluctuation is also obtained. The present investigation demonstrates that the kappa distribution for the protons featuring energetic tail population characterized by f v-2κ-2, where κ is the parameter for kappa distribution, may represent the background population of the protons in the heliosphere. However, it is speculated that in order to uniquely determine the value of κ, which must be close to 1.5 for asymptotic behavior of f v-5, one must have an additional constraint that involves the balance of nonlinear mode coupling terms in the wave kinetic equation.

Paleoclimatic modeling and phylogeography of least killifish, Heterandria formosa: insights into Pleistocene expansion-contraction dynamics and evolutionary history of North American Coastal Plain freshwater biota.

PubMed

Bagley, Justin C; Sandel, Michael; Travis, Joseph; Lozano-Vilano, María de Lourdes; Johnson, Jerald B

2013-10-09

Climatic and sea-level fluctuations throughout the last Pleistocene glacial cycle (~130-0 ka) profoundly influenced present-day distributions and genetic diversity of Northern Hemisphere biotas by forcing range contractions in many species during the glacial advance and allowing expansion following glacial retreat ('expansion-contraction' model). Evidence for such range dynamics and refugia in the unglaciated Gulf-Atlantic Coastal Plain stems largely from terrestrial species, and aquatic species Pleistocene responses remain relatively uninvestigated. Heterandria formosa, a wide-ranging regional endemic, presents an ideal system to test the expansion-contraction model within this biota. By integrating ecological niche modeling and phylogeography, we infer the Pleistocene history of this livebearing fish (Poeciliidae) and test for several predicted distributional and genetic effects of the last glaciation. Paleoclimatic models predicted range contraction to a single southwest Florida peninsula refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by northward expansion. We inferred spatial-population subdivision into four groups that reflect genetic barriers outside this refuge. Several other features of the genetic data were consistent with predictions derived from an expansion-contraction model: limited intraspecific divergence (e.g. mean mtDNA p-distance = 0.66%); a pattern of mtDNA diversity (mean Hd = 0.934; mean π = 0.007) consistent with rapid, recent population expansion; a lack of mtDNA isolation-by-distance; and clinal variation in allozyme diversity with higher diversity at lower latitudes near the predicted refugium. Statistical tests of mismatch distributions and coalescent simulations of the gene tree lent greater support to a scenario of post-glacial expansion and diversification from a single refugium than to any other model examined (e.g. multiple-refugia scenarios). Congruent results from diverse data indicate H. formosa fits the classic Pleistocene expansion-contraction model, even as the genetic data suggest additional ecological influences on population structure. While evidence for Plio-Pleistocene Gulf Coast vicariance is well described for many freshwater species presently codistributed with H. formosa, this species demography and diversification departs notably from this pattern. Species-specific expansion-contraction dynamics may therefore have figured more prominently in shaping Coastal Plain evolutionary history than previously thought. Our findings bolster growing appreciation for the complexity of phylogeographical structuring within North America's southern refugia, including responses of Coastal Plain freshwater biota to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations.

Seasonal variation in the behaviour of a short-lived rodent.

PubMed

Eccard, Jana A; Herde, Antje

2013-11-15

Short lived, iteroparous animals in seasonal environments experience variable social and environmental conditions over their lifetime. Animals can be divided into those with a "young-of-the-year" life history (YY, reproducing and dying in the summer of birth) and an "overwinter" life history (OW, overwintering in a subadult state before reproducing next spring).We investigated how behavioural patterns across the population were affected by season and sex, and whether variation in behaviour reflects the variation in life history patterns of each season. Applications of pace-of-life (POL) theory would suggest that long-lived OW animals are shyer in order to increase survival, and YY are bolder in order to increase reproduction. Therefore, we expected that in winter and spring samples, when only OW can be sampled, the animals should be shyer than in summer and autumn, when both OW and YY animals can be sampled.We studied common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations, which express typical, intra-annual density fluctuation. We captured a total of 492 voles at different months over 3 years and examined boldness and activity level with two standardised behavioural experiments. Behavioural variables of the two tests were correlated with each other. Boldness, measured as short latencies in both tests, was extremely high in spring compared to other seasons. Activity level was highest in spring and summer, and higher in males than in females. Being bold in laboratory tests may translate into higher risk-taking in nature by being more mobile while seeking out partners or valuable territories. Possible explanations include asset-protection, with OW animals being rather old with low residual reproductive value in spring. Therefore, OW may take higher risks during this season. Offspring born in spring encounter a lower population density and may have higher reproductive value than offspring of later cohorts. A constant connection between life history and animal personality, as suggested by the POL theory, however, was not found. Nevertheless, correlations of traits suggest the existence of animal personalities. In conclusion, complex patterns of population dynamics, seasonal variation in life histories, and variability of behaviour due to asset-protection may cause complex seasonal behavioural dynamics in a population.

Nutritional Patterns of Centenarians.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Mary Ann; And Others

1992-01-01

Compared dietary patterns of 165 older adults. Compared to younger cohorts, centenarians (n=24) consumed breakfast more regularly, avoided weight loss diets and large fluctuation in body weight, consumed slightly more vegetables, and relied on doctors and family for nutrition information. Centenarians were less likely to consume low-fat diets and…

Quasispecies theory for finite populations

PubMed Central

Park, Jeong-Man; Muñoz, Enrique; Deem, Michael W.

2015-01-01

We present stochastic, finite-population formulations of the Crow-Kimura and Eigen models of quasispecies theory, for fitness functions that depend in an arbitrary way on the number of mutations from the wild type. We include back mutations in our description. We show that the fluctuation of the population numbers about the average values are exceedingly large in these physical models of evolution. We further show that horizontal gene transfer reduces by orders of magnitude the fluctuations in the population numbers and reduces the accumulation of deleterious mutations in the finite population due to Muller’s ratchet. Indeed the population sizes needed to converge to the infinite population limit are often larger than those found in nature for smooth fitness functions in the absence of horizontal gene transfer. These analytical results are derived for the steady-state by means of a field-theoretic representation. Numerical results are presented that indicate horizontal gene transfer speeds up the dynamics of evolution as well. PMID:20365394

pO{sub 2} Fluctuation Pattern and Cycling Hypoxia in Human Cervical Carcinoma and Melanoma Xenografts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellingsen, Christine; Ovrebo, Kirsti Marie; Galappathi, Kanthi

2012-07-15

Purpose: Blood perfusion in tumors is spatially and temporally heterogeneous, resulting in local fluctuations in tissue oxygen tension (pO{sub 2}) and tissue regions showing cycling hypoxia. In this study, we investigated whether the pO{sub 2} fluctuation pattern and the extent of cycling hypoxia differ between tumor types showing high (e.g., cervical carcinoma xenograft) and low (e.g., melanoma xenograft) fractions of connective tissue-associated blood vessels. Methods and Materials: Two cervical carcinoma lines (CK-160 and TS-415) and two melanoma lines (A-07 and R-18) transplanted into BALB/c nu/nu mice were included in the study. Tissue pO{sub 2} was measured simultaneously in two positionsmore » in each tumor by using a two-channel OxyLite fiber-optic oxygen-sensing device. The extent of acute and chronic hypoxia was assessed by combining a radiobiological and a pimonidazole-based immunohistochemical assay of tumor hypoxia. Results: The proportion of tumor regions showing pO{sub 2} fluctuations, the pO{sub 2} fluctuation frequency in these regions, and the relative amplitude of the pO{sub 2} fluctuations were significantly higher in the melanoma xenografts than in the cervical carcinoma xenografts. Cervical carcinoma and melanoma xenografts did not differ significantly in the fraction of acutely hypoxic cells or the fraction of chronically hypoxic cells. However, the ratio between fraction of acutely hypoxic cells and fraction of chronically hypoxic cells was significantly higher in melanoma than in cervical carcinoma xenografts. Conclusions: Temporal heterogeneity in blood flow and tissue pO{sub 2} in tumors may depend on tumor histology. Connective tissue surrounding microvessels may stabilize blood flow and pO{sub 2} and, thus, protect tumor tissue from cycling hypoxia.« less

Botulinum Toxin Dosing Trends in Spasmodic Dysphonia Over a 20-year Period.

PubMed

Namin, Arya W; Christopher, Kara M; Eisenbeis, John F

2017-01-01

The study aims to (1) identify the botulinum toxin (BTX) dosing trend in a cohort of patients who received at least 20 injections for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia (ADSD), (2) describe two distinct BTX dosing trends in treating ADSD (a "classic" dosing trend that initially decreases before stabilizing, and a "fluctuating" dosing trend), and (3) determine if patients with the "classic" dosing trend differed in age or in dosing intervals from those with the "fluctuating" dosing trend. This is a retrospective case series. Of 149 patients who received a total of 2484 BTX injections for the treatment of spasmodic dysphonia in 1993-2013, 49 patients received at least 20 injections. The BTX dose and the interval between doses were recorded. The mean dose of injections 1-20 was determined. The age at initial injection, initial dose, and interval in days between treatments were compared for the "fluctuating" and "classic" groups. The cohort exhibits a significant decrease in dose during the first 10-15 injections. The "fluctuating" group had a significantly shorter interval between injections (mean interval = 97.09 days, SD = 29.41; mean interval = 136.90 days, SD = 43.76, P = 0.002). The mean age at initial dose was not significantly different between the "classic" and "fluctuating" groups. The average BTX dose of patients with ADSD who receive long-term injections significantly decreases during the initial 10-15 injections before stabilizing. Patients who exhibit the "fluctuating" dosing pattern have a significantly shorter interval between injections than those with the "classic" dosing pattern. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing

PubMed Central

Shapiro, Arthur M.

2017-01-01

A long-standing challenge for population biology has been to understand why some species are characterized by populations that fluctuate in size independently, while populations of other species fluctuate synchronously across space. The effects of climatic variation and dispersal have been invoked to explain synchronous population dynamics, however an understanding of the relative influence of these drivers in natural populations is lacking. Here we compare support for dispersal- versus climate-driven models of interspecific variation in synchrony using 27 years of observations of 65 butterfly species at 10 sites spanning 2750 m of elevation in Northern California. The degree of spatial synchrony exhibited by each butterfly species was used as a response in a unique approach that allowed us to investigate whether interspecific variation in response to climate or dispersal propensity was most predictive of interspecific variation in synchrony. We report that variation in sensitivity to climate explained 50% of interspecific variation in synchrony, whereas variation in dispersal propensity explained 23%. Sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a primary driver of regional climate, was the best predictor of synchrony. Combining sensitivity to climate and dispersal propensity into a single model did not greatly increase model performance, confirming the primacy of climatic sensitivity for driving spatial synchrony in butterflies. Finally, we uncovered a relationship between spatial synchrony and population decline that is consistent with theory, but small in magnitude, which suggests that the degree to which populations fluctuate in synchrony is of limited use for understanding the ongoing decline of the Northern California butterfly fauna. PMID:28791146

The effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on radio interferometric measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treuhaft, R. N.; Lanyi, G. E.

1987-01-01

A statistical model of water vapor fluctuations is used to describe the effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on radio interferometric measurements. It is assumed that the spatial structure of refractivity is approximated by Kolmogorov turbulence theory, and that the temporal fluctuations are caused by spatial patterns moved over a site by the wind, and these assumptions are examined for the VLBI delay and delay rate observables. The results suggest that the delay rate measurement error is usually dominated by water vapor fluctuations, and water vapor induced VLBI parameter errors and correlations are determined as a function of the delay observable errors. A method is proposed for including the water vapor fluctuations in the parameter estimation method to obtain improved parameter estimates and parameter covariances.

Intermittency in heavy ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Michael; HELIOS Collaboration

1991-04-01

This paper describes a study of multiplicity and transverse energy fluctuations using factorial moments for sulphur collisions with silver — bromide emulsion and platinium targets at 200 GeV/A. The data were taken with the HELIOS experiment at CERN. Bialas and Peschanski [1] predicted a power law dependence of the moments on the rapidity bin size if the fluctuations are invariant over a range of scales. This pattern is known as intermittency in the theory of turbulence, and indicates a fractal structure. Fluctuations were studied for a range of pseudorapidity scales using scaled factorial moments. Correlated fluctuations were studied using correlated scaled factorial moments. For peripheral collisions the data are weakly intermittent and consistent with a simple cascading mechanism, the a model. For central collisions no clear signal of intermittency was seen.

Intermittency in heavy ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1991-04-01

This paper describes a study of multiplicity and transverse energy fluctuations using factorial moments for sulphur collisions with silver - bromide emulsion and platinium targets at 200 GeV/A. The data were taken with the HELIOS experiment at CERN. Bialas and Peschanski [1] predicted a power law dependence of the moments on the rapidity bin size if the fluctuations are invariant over a range of scales. This pattern is known as intermittency in the theory of turbulence, and indicates a fractal structure. Fluctuations were studied for a range of pseudorapidity scales using scaled factorial moments. Correlated fluctuations were studied using correlated scaled factorial moments. For peripheral collisions the data are weakly intermittent and consistent with a simple cascading mechanism, the a model. For central collisions no clear signal of intermittency was seen.

Did glacial advances during the Pleistocene influence differently the demographic histories of benthic and pelagic Antarctic shelf fishes? – Inferences from intraspecific mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence diversity

PubMed Central

Janko, Karel; Lecointre, Guillaume; DeVries, Arthur; Couloux, Arnaud; Cruaud, Corinne; Marshall, Craig

2007-01-01

Background Circum-Antarctic waters harbour a rare example of a marine species flock – the Notothenioid fish, most species of which are restricted to the continental shelf. It remains an open question as to how they survived Pleistocene climatic fluctuations characterised by repeated advances of continental glaciers as far as the shelf break that probably resulted in a loss of habitat for benthic organisms. Pelagic ecosystems, on the other hand, might have flourished during glacial maxima due to the northward expansion of Antarctic polar waters. In order to better understand the role of ecological traits in Quaternary climatic fluctuations, we performed demographic analyses of populations of four fish species from the tribe Trematominae, including both fully benthic and pelagic species using the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and an intron from the nuclear S7 gene. Results Nuclear and cytoplasmic markers showed differences in the rate and time of population expansions as well as the likely population structure. Neutrality tests suggest that such discordance comes from different coalescence dynamics of each marker, rather than from selective pressure. Demographic analyses based on intraspecific DNA diversity suggest a recent population expansion in both benthic species, dated by the cyt b locus to the last glacial cycle, whereas the population structure of pelagic feeders either did not deviate from a constant-size model or indicated that the onset of the major population expansion of these species by far predated those of the benthic species. Similar patterns were apparent even when comparing previously published data on other Southern Ocean organisms, but we observed considerable heterogeneity within both groups with regard to the onset of major demographic events and rates. Conclusion Our data suggest benthic and pelagic species reacted differently to the Pleistocene ice-sheet expansions that probably significantly reduced the suitable habitat for benthic species. However, the asynchronous timing of major demographic events observed in different species within both "ecological guilds", imply that the species examined here may have different population and evolutionary histories, and that more species should be analysed in order to more precisely assess the role of life history in the response of organisms to climatic changes. PMID:17997847

Pattern of genetic differentiation of an incipient speciation process: The case of the high Andean killifish Orestias

PubMed Central

Guerrero-Jiménez, Claudia Jimena; Peña, Fabiola; Morales, Pamela; Méndez, Marco; Sallaberry, Michel; Vila, Irma; Poulin, Elie

2017-01-01

During the Pleistocene and Holocene, the southwest Andean Altiplano (17°-22°S) was affected by repeated fluctuations in water levels, high volcanic activity and major tectonic movements. In the early Holocene the humid Tauca phase shifted to the arid conditions that have lasted until the present, producing endorheic rivers, lakes, lagoons and wetlands. The endemic fish Orestias (Cyprinodontidae) represents a good model to observe the genetic differentiation that characterizes an incipient speciation process in allopatry since the morphospecies described inhabit a restricted geographic area, with present habitat fragmentation. The genetic diversity and population structure of four endemic morphospecies of Orestias (Cyprinodontidae) found in the Lauca National Park (LNP) analyzed with mitochondrial markers (Control Region) and eight microsatellites, revealed the existence of genetic groups that matches the fragmentation of these systems. High values of genetic and phylogeographic differentiation indices were observed between Chungará Lake and Piacota lagoon. The group composed of the Lauca River, Copapujo and Chuviri wetlands sampling sites showed a clear signal of expansion, with a star-like haplotype network. Levels of genetic differentiation were lower than in Chungará and Piacota, suggesting that these localities would have differentiated after the bottlenecks linked to the collapse of Parinacota volcano. The Parinacota sample showed a population signal that differed from the other localities revealing greater genetic diversity and a disperse network, presenting haplotypes shared with other LNP localities. A mixing pattern of the different genetic groups was evident using the microsatellite markers. The chronology of the vicariance events in LNP may indicate that the partition process of the Orestias populations was gradual. Considering this, and in view of the genetic results, we may conclude that the morphospecies from LNP are populations in ongoing differentiation process. PMID:28245250

Pattern of dental caries in the historical human population of Kujawy in the Polish lowland (north-central Poland).

PubMed

Kurek, Marta; Borowska-Strugińska, Beata; Mazurkiewicz, Julia; Nieczuja-Dwojacka, Joanna; Zadzińska, Elzbieta

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the dental caries rates in the skeletal human population who lived in north-central Poland in modern times (16th-18th century). The material consisted of 297 skeletons (4,783 permanent teeth) from the archeological site of K. Compared material was coming from two different sites located in the same region: early mediaeval Kolonia--39 skeletons and Swiety Duch (dating to the same historical period as K population)--417 skeletons. All three series are part of the osteological collection of the Department of Anthropology. For each skeletal sample, caries rates were calculated by individual (frequency index) and by tooth count (intensity index). Dental caries was scored also according to a procedure in which the initiation sites are recorded. The highest frequency of dental caries was observed in Swiety Duch (70%) and the lowest in the early mediaeval sample (almost 59%). The intensity of caries fluctuated from above 8% observed in Kolonia to 22% observed in the sample from Swiety Duch. However, in all three samples the caries initiation site was most often noticed on fissure and pits (type 1) the K population was characterised by a different caries pattern (chi2=17.88, p<0.05 when compared with that of Kolonia; chi2=218.73, p<0.01 when compared with that of Swiety Duch), which could be the effect of diet (high frequency of CEJ caries probably means starch-rich plant food diet), oral hygiene, fluoride level, economic status or genetic factors (resistance/sensitivity to cariogenic bacteria). Copyright (c) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Binary fingerprints at fluctuation-enhanced sensing.

PubMed

Chang, Hung-Chih; Kish, Laszlo B; King, Maria D; Kwan, Chiman

2010-01-01

We have developed a simple way to generate binary patterns based on spectral slopes in different frequency ranges at fluctuation-enhanced sensing. Such patterns can be considered as binary "fingerprints" of odors. The method has experimentally been demonstrated with a commercial semiconducting metal oxide (Taguchi) sensor exposed to bacterial odors (Escherichia coli and Anthrax-surrogate Bacillus subtilis) and processing their stochastic signals. With a single Taguchi sensor, the situations of empty chamber, tryptic soy agar (TSA) medium, or TSA with bacteria could be distinguished with 100% reproducibility. The bacterium numbers were in the range of 2.5 × 10(4)-10(6). To illustrate the relevance for ultra-low power consumption, we show that this new type of signal processing and pattern recognition task can be implemented by a simple analog circuitry and a few logic gates with total power consumption in the microWatts range.

Chronobiology of chronic pain: focus on diurnal rhythmicity of neuropathic pain.

PubMed

Gilron, Ian; Ghasemlou, Nader

2014-12-01

Although circadian rhythmicity has long been recognized in various nociceptive pain conditions such as arthritis, diurnal pain patterns in neuropathic conditions have only recently been described. The purpose of this article is to review emerging evidence and discuss future research to further understand this phenomenon. Secondary analyses of neuropathic pain clinical trials demonstrate that pain intensity fluctuations exhibit a distinct diurnal pattern that contrasts that of nociceptive pain conditions. Ongoing preclinical investigations support the phenomenon of circadian pain fluctuations and provide the opportunity to better describe pain chronobiology and to elucidate underlying mechanisms of circadian pain rhythmicity. The observation of clinically relevant diurnal pain variability in neuropathic conditions has important implications for future research and treatment of pain. This is an immature research field, and further investigation is needed to better characterize these patterns in more detail, investigate contributory mechanisms, and to develop therapeutic strategies that exploit this phenomenon.

The Effect of Pleistocene Climate Fluctuations on Distribution of European Abalone (Haliotis tuberculata), Revealed by Combined Mitochondrial and Nuclear Marker Analyses.

PubMed

Roussel, Valérie; Van Wormhoudt, Alain

2017-04-01

The genetic differentiation among the populations of the European abalone Haliotis tuberculata was investigated using different markers to better understand the evolutionary history and exchanges between populations. Three markers were used: mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI), the sperm lysin nuclear gene, and eight nuclear microsatellites. These markers present different characteristics concerning mutation rate and inheritance, which provided complementary information about abalone history and gene diversity. Genetic diversity and relationships among subspecies were calculated from a sample of approximately 500 individuals, collected from 17 different locations in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean, Macaronesia, and Mediterranean Sea. COI marker was used to explore the phylogeny of the species with a network analysis and two phylogenetic methods. The analysis revealed 18 major haplotypes grouped into two distinct clades with a pairwise sequence divergence up to 3.5 %. These clades do not correspond to subspecies but revealed many contacts along Atlantic coast during the Pleistocene interglaciations. The sperm lysin gene analysis separated two different subtaxa: one associated to Macaronesian islands, and the other to all other populations. Moreover, a small population of the northern subtaxon was isolated in the Adriatic Sea-probably before the separation of the two lineages-and evolved independently. Microsatellites were analyzed by different genetics methods, including the Bayesian clustering method and migration patterns analysis. It revealed genetically distinct microsatellite patterns among populations from Mediterranean Sea, Brittany and Normandy, Morocco, and Canary and Balearic islands. Gene flow is asymmetric among the regions; the Azores and the Canary Islands are particularly isolated and have low effective population sizes. Our results support the hypothesis that climate changes since the Pleistocene glaciations have played a major role in the geographic distribution of the European abalone. Traces of these events related to maternal inheritance were shown on COI marker.

Phylogeographic and population insights of the Asian common toad (Bufo gargarizans) in Korea and China: population isolation and expansions as response to the ice ages

PubMed Central

Santos, Joana L.; Sánchez-RamÍrez, Santiago; Bae, Yoonhyuk; Jang, Yikweon

2017-01-01

The effects of ice ages on speciation have been well documented for many European and North American taxa. In contrast, very few studies have addressed the consequences of such environmental and topographical changes in North East Asian species. More precisely, the Korean Peninsula offers a unique model to assess patterns and processes of speciation as it hosts the northern- and eastern-most distribution limit of some widespread Asian taxa. Despite this, studies addressing phylogeographic patterns and population genetics in the peninsula and surrounding countries are few and studies for most families are lacking. Here we inferred the phylogenetic relationships of the common toad (Bufo gargarizans) from South Korea and their North East Asian counterpart populations, based on mitochondrial data. Korean B. gargarizans GenBank BLASTs matched few individuals from nearby China, but the presence of a Korean clade suggests isolation on the Korean Peninsula, previous to the last glacial maximum, linked to sea level resurgence. Molecular clock calibrations within this group were used to date the divergence between clades and their relationship to paleo-climatic events in the area. Lack of genetic structure among South Korean populations and strong homogeneity between the Korean and some Chinese localities suggest weak isolation and recent expansion. Geographical projection of continuous coalescent maximum-clade-credibility trees shows an original Chinese expansion towards the Korean Peninsula through the Yellow Sea circa two million years ago with colonisation events dating circa 800 thousand years ago (K. y. a.). Following this colonisation, the data point to outgoing Korean Peninsula dispersal events throughout different periods, towards the North through land, and West through land bridge formations over the Yellow Sea during sea level falls. In accordance, demographic analyses revealed a population expansion in the Koran Peninsula circa 300 K. y. a., likely attributed to glacial cycle fluctuations. PMID:29201561

Crustaceans from a tropical estuarine sand-mud flat, Pacific, Costa Rica, (1984-1988) revisited.

PubMed

Vargas-Zamora, José A; Sibaja-Cordero, Jeffrey A; Vargas-Castillo, Rita

2012-12-01

The availability of data sets for time periods of more than a year is scarce for tropical environments. Advances in hardware and software speed-up the re-analysis of old data sets and facilitates the description of population oscillations. Using recent taxonomic literature and software we have updated and re-analized the information on crustacean diversity and population fluctuations from a set of cores collected at a mud-sand flat in the mid upper Gulf of Nicoya estuary, Pacific coast of Costa Rica (1984-1988). A total of 112 morphological species of macroinvertebrates was found, of which 29 were crustaceans. Taxonomic problems, maily with the peracarids, prevented the identification of a group of species. The abundance patterns of the crab Pinnixa valerii, the ostracod Cyprideis pacifica, and the cumacean Coricuma nicoyensis were analized with the Generalized Additive Models of the free software R. The models evidenced a variety of population oscillations during the sampling period. These oscillations probably included perturbations induced by external factors, like the strong red tide events of 1985. In additon, early on 1984 the populations might have been at an altered state due to the inpact of El Niño 1982-83. Thus, the oscillations observed during the study period departed from the expected seasonality (dry vs rainy) pattern and are thus considered atypical for this tropical estuarine tidal-flat. Crustacean diversity and population peaks were within the range of examples found in worldwide literature. However, abundances of the cumacean C. nicoyensis, an endemic species, are the highest reported for a tropical estuary. Comparative data from tropical tidal flat crustaceans continues to be scarce. Crustaceans (total vs groups) had population changes in response to the deployment of predator exclusion cages during the dry and rainy seasons of 1985. Temporal and spatial patchiness characterized the abundances of P. valeri, C. pacifica and C. nicoyenis.

Low frequency electromagnetic fluctuations in Kappa magnetized plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sunjung; Lazar, M.; Schlickeiser, R.; López, R. A.; Yoon, P. H.

2018-07-01

The present paper provides a theoretical approach for the evaluation of the low frequency spontaneously emitted electromagnetic (EM) fluctuations in Kappa magnetized plasmas, which include the kinetic Alfvén, fast magnetosonic/whistler, kinetic slow mode, ion Bernstein cyclotron modes, and higher-order modes. The model predictions are consistent with particle-in-cell simulations. Effects of suprathermal particles on low frequency fluctuations are studied by varying the power index, either for ions (κ i) or for electrons (κ e). Computations for an arbitrary wave vector orientation and wave polarization provide the intensity of spontaneous emissions to be enhanced in the presence of suprathermal populations. These results strongly suggest that spontaneous fluctuations may significantly contribute to the EM fluctuations observed in space plasmas, where suprathermal Kappa distributed particles are ubiquitous.

Magnetic intermittency of solar wind turbulence in the dissipation range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Zhongtian; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Marsch, Eckart; Wang, Linghua

2016-04-01

The feature, nature, and fate of intermittency in the dissipation range are an interesting topic in the solar wind turbulence. We calculate the distribution of flatness for the magnetic field fluctuations as a functionof angle and scale. The flatness distribution shows a "butterfly" pattern, with two wings located at angles parallel/anti-parallel to local mean magnetic field direction and main body located at angles perpendicular to local B0. This "butterfly" pattern illustrates that the flatness profile in (anti-) parallel direction approaches to the maximum value at larger scale and drops faster than that in perpendicular direction. The contours for probability distribution functions at different scales illustrate a "vase" pattern, more clear in parallel direction, which confirms the scale-variation of flatness and indicates the intermittency generation and dissipation. The angular distribution of structure function in the dissipation range shows an anisotropic pattern. The quasi-mono-fractal scaling of structure function in the dissipation range is also illustrated and investigated with the mathematical model for inhomogeneous cascading (extended p-model). Different from the inertial range, the extended p-model for the dissipation range results in approximate uniform fragmentation measure. However, more complete mathematicaland physical model involving both non-uniform cascading and dissipation is needed. The nature of intermittency may be strong structures or large amplitude fluctuations, which may be tested with magnetic helicity. In one case study, we find the heating effect in terms of entropy for large amplitude fluctuations seems to be more obvious than strong structures.

Abiotic influences on bicarbonate use in the giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, in the Monterey Bay.

PubMed

Drobnitch, Sarah Tepler; Nickols, Kerry; Edwards, Matthew

2017-02-01

In the Monterey Bay region of central California, the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera experiences broad fluctuations in wave forces, temperature, light availability, nutrient availability, and seawater carbonate chemistry, all of which may impact their productivity. In particular, current velocities and light intensity may strongly regulate the supply and demand of inorganic carbon (Ci) as substrates for photosynthesis. Macrocystis pyrifera can acquire and utilize both CO 2 and bicarbonate (HCO 3 - ) as Ci substrates for photosynthesis and growth. Given the variability in carbon delivery (due to current velocities and varying [DIC]) and demand (in the form of saturating irradiance), we hypothesized that the proportion of CO 2 and bicarbonate utilized is not constant for M. pyrifera, but a variable function of their fluctuating environment. We further hypothesized that populations acclimated to different wave exposure and irradiance habitats would display different patterns of bicarbonate uptake. To test these hypotheses, we carried out oxygen evolution trials in the laboratory to measure the proportion of bicarbonate utilized by M. pyrifera via external CA under an orthogonal cross of velocity, irradiance, and acclimation treatments. Our Monterey Bay populations of M. pyrifera exhibited proportionally higher external bicarbonate utilization in high irradiance and high flow velocity conditions than in sub-saturating irradiance or low flow velocity conditions. However, there was no significant difference in proportional bicarbonate use between deep blades and canopy blades, nor between individuals from wave-exposed versus wave-protected sites. This study contributes a new field-oriented perspective on the abiotic controls of carbon utilization physiology in macroalgae. © 2016 Phycological Society of America.

Hydroacoustical evidence of the expansion of pelagic swarms of Munida gregaria (Decapoda, Munididae) in the Beagle Channel and the Argentine Patagonian Shelf, and its relationship with habitat features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diez, Mariano J.; Cabreira, Ariel G.; Madirolas, Adrián; Lovrich, Gustavo A.

2016-08-01

Squat lobsters are highly diversified and widespread decapods, of which only three species form pelagic swarms. Here we infer the expansion of Munida gregaria populations in the Beagle Channel and the Argentine Patagonian Shelf by means of acoustic surveys of pelagic swarms. We also describe the habitat characteristics in which these swarms occur. Acoustic data was collected during three multidisciplinary scientific cruises on board of the R/V Puerto Deseado during 2009, 2012 and 2014. Despite differences in the environmental conditions between the two surveyed areas, between 2009 and 2014 pelagic swarms increased their occurrence and abundance both in the Beagle Channel and on the Argentine Patagonian Shelf. Towards the end of the studied period, pelagic swarms of M. gregaria occurred in new locations, supporting the notion of a population expansion. Within the Beagle Channel swarm expansions were more marked than on the Patagonian Shelf. We here postulate that M. gregaria expansions occur in association with productive areas of the Argentine continental shelf, such as frontal zones, favoured by the squat lobster phenotypic plasticity that permit to exploit resources in both the neritic and benthic environments. At a regional scale on the Patagonian Shelf, three main groups of pelagic swarms of M. gregaria were clearly associated to respective frontal zones. The information presented here is necessary to understand fluctuations in both distribution and abundance patterns of a key species on the Argentine continental shelf. These fluctuations could be direct or indirect indicators of changes in the ecosystem.

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns on short-term sea-level fluctuations along the eastern seaboard of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Lee, C. C.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.

2017-12-01

Sea-level fluctuations over time are a product of short-term weather events, as well as long-term secular trends in sea-level rise. With sea-levl rise, these fluctuations increasingly have substantial impacts upon coastal ecosystems and impact society through coastal flooding events. In this research, we assess the impact of short-term events, combined with sea-level rise, through synoptic climatological analysis, exploring whether circulation pattern identification can be used to enhance probabilistic forecasts of flood likelihood. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were created for two discrete atmospheric variables: 700-hPa geopotential height (700z) and sea-level pressure (SLP). For each variable, a SOM array of patterns was created based on data spanning 25°-50°N and 60°-90°W for the period 1979-2014. Sea-level values were derived from tidal gauges between Cape May, New Jersey and Charleston, South Carolina, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the US. Both anomalous sea-level values, as well as nuisance flood occurrence (defined using the local gauge threshold), were assessed. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing on sea levels. With SLP, higher sea levels are associated with either patterns that were indicative of on-shore flow or cyclones. At 700z, ridges situated along the east coast are associated with higher sea levels. As the SOM matrix arranges atmospheric patterns in a continuum, the nodes of each SOM show a clear spatial pattern in terms of anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Further, multi-day transitions are also analyzed, showing rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are weaker with 700z than SLP; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

Genetic models reveal historical patterns of sea lamprey population fluctuations within Lake Champlain

PubMed Central

Azodi, Christina B.; Sheldon, Sallie P.; Trombulak, Stephen C.; Ardren, William R.

2015-01-01

The origin of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in Lake Champlain has been heavily debated over the past decade. Given the lack of historical documentation, two competing hypotheses have emerged in the literature. First, it has been argued that the relatively recent population size increase and concomitant rise in wounding rates on prey populations are indicative of an invasive population that entered the lake through the Champlain Canal. Second, recent genetic evidence suggests a post-glacial colonization at the end of the Pleistocene, approximately 11,000 years ago. One limitation to resolving the origin of sea lamprey in Lake Champlain is a lack of historical and current measures of population size. In this study, the issue of population size was explicitly addressed using nuclear (nDNA) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers to estimate historical demography with genetic models. Haplotype network analysis, mismatch analysis, and summary statistics based on mtDNA noncoding sequences for NCI (479 bp) and NCII (173 bp) all indicate a recent population expansion. Coalescent models based on mtDNA and nDNA identified two potential demographic events: a population decline followed by a very recent population expansion. The decline in effective population size may correlate with land-use and fishing pressure changes post-European settlement, while the recent expansion may be associated with the implementation of the salmonid stocking program in the 1970s. These results are most consistent with the hypothesis that sea lamprey are native to Lake Champlain; however, the credibility intervals around parameter estimates demonstrate that there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude and timing of past demographic events. PMID:26539334

Reconstructing population histories from single nucleotide polymorphism data.

PubMed

Sirén, Jukka; Marttinen, Pekka; Corander, Jukka

2011-01-01

Population genetics encompasses a strong theoretical and applied research tradition on the multiple demographic processes that shape genetic variation present within a species. When several distinct populations exist in the current generation, it is often natural to consider the pattern of their divergence from a single ancestral population in terms of a binary tree structure. Inference about such population histories based on molecular data has been an intensive research topic in the recent years. The most common approach uses coalescent theory to model genealogies of individuals sampled from the current populations. Such methods are able to compare several different evolutionary scenarios and to estimate demographic parameters. However, their major limitation is the enormous computational complexity associated with the indirect modeling of the demographies, which limits the application to small data sets. Here, we propose a novel Bayesian method for inferring population histories from unlinked single nucleotide polymorphisms, which is applicable also to data sets harboring large numbers of individuals from distinct populations. We use an approximation to the neutral Wright-Fisher diffusion to model random fluctuations in allele frequencies. The population histories are modeled as binary rooted trees that represent the historical order of divergence of the different populations. A combination of analytical, numerical, and Monte Carlo integration techniques are utilized for the inferences. A particularly important feature of our approach is that it provides intuitive measures of statistical uncertainty related with the estimates computed, which may be entirely lacking for the alternative methods in this context. The potential of our approach is illustrated by analyses of both simulated and real data sets.

Demographic history, current expansion and future management challenges of wild boar populations in the Balkans and Europe

PubMed Central

Veličković, N; Ferreira, E; Djan, M; Ernst, M; Obreht Vidaković, D; Monaco, A; Fonseca, C

2016-01-01

Wild boar (Sus scrofa), one of the most widespread wildlife species, has entered a stage of continuous growth in Europe, and could even be considered a pest species. We analysed microsatellite variability in 723 wild boars from across Europe, including the northern Dinaric Balkans. Our aims were: (1) to define the population structure of wild boars in the Balkans and its relation with other European populations; (2) to estimate effective populations sizes, levels of intra- and inter-population diversity, inbreeding migration and gene flow patterns; (3) to test subpopulations for bottlenecks; (4) to interpret these results in light of current knowledge about the demographic history of wild boars in Europe; and (5) to discuss the relevance of these findings for management and conservation. Strong population structuring was observed and 14 subpopulations were revealed. High genetic diversity was found, and besides the well-known identity of the Italian populations of Sardinia and Castelporziano, we bring new insights into other potential relevant, refugial populations such as Littoral Slovenia, South Portugal, North-western Iberia and an entire cluster in the Balkans. There was evidence of gene flow going from these refugial subpopulations towards less peripheral and more admixed subpopulations. Recent population bottlenecks and expansions were detected, mostly in the peninsular refuge subpopulations. The results are consistent with the fluctuations of wild boar numbers in Europe since the beginning of the twentieth century. These results should be taken into account in future conservation and management plans for wild boar populations in Europe. PMID:27436523

The Impact of Business Cycle Fluctuations on Graduate School Enrollment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Matthew T.

2013-01-01

This paper adds to the understanding of student decisions about graduate school attendance by studying the magnitude of the effect of business cycle fluctuations on enrollment. I use data on graduate school enrollment from the Current Population Survey and statewide variation in unemployment rates across time to proxy for changes in business cycle…

Listening to the noise: random fluctuations reveal gene network parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munsky, Brian; Khammash, Mustafa

2009-01-01

The cellular environment is abuzz with noise. The origin of this noise is attributed to the inherent random motion of reacting molecules that take part in gene expression and post expression interactions. In this noisy environment, clonal populations of cells exhibit cell-to-cell variability that frequently manifests as significant phenotypic differences within the cellular population. The stochastic fluctuations in cellular constituents induced by noise can be measured and their statistics quantified. We show that these random fluctuations carry within them valuable information about the underlying genetic network. Far from being a nuisance, the ever-present cellular noise acts as a rich sourcemore » of excitation that, when processed through a gene network, carries its distinctive fingerprint that encodes a wealth of information about that network. We demonstrate that in some cases the analysis of these random fluctuations enables the full identification of network parameters, including those that may otherwise be difficult to measure. This establishes a potentially powerful approach for the identification of gene networks and offers a new window into the workings of these networks.« less

Regional Population Dynamics

Treesearch

Andrew Birt

2011-01-01

The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

The evolution of multivariate maternal effects.

PubMed

Kuijper, Bram; Johnstone, Rufus A; Townley, Stuart

2014-04-01

There is a growing interest in predicting the social and ecological contexts that favor the evolution of maternal effects. Most predictions focus, however, on maternal effects that affect only a single character, whereas the evolution of maternal effects is poorly understood in the presence of suites of interacting traits. To overcome this, we simulate the evolution of multivariate maternal effects (captured by the matrix M) in a fluctuating environment. We find that the rate of environmental fluctuations has a substantial effect on the properties of M: in slowly changing environments, offspring are selected to have a multivariate phenotype roughly similar to the maternal phenotype, so that M is characterized by positive dominant eigenvalues; by contrast, rapidly changing environments favor Ms with dominant eigenvalues that are negative, as offspring favor a phenotype which substantially differs from the maternal phenotype. Moreover, when fluctuating selection on one maternal character is temporally delayed relative to selection on other traits, we find a striking pattern of cross-trait maternal effects in which maternal characters influence not only the same character in offspring, but also other offspring characters. Additionally, when selection on one character contains more stochastic noise relative to selection on other traits, large cross-trait maternal effects evolve from those maternal traits that experience the smallest amounts of noise. The presence of these cross-trait maternal effects shows that individual maternal effects cannot be studied in isolation, and that their study in a multivariate context may provide important insights about the nature of past selection. Our results call for more studies that measure multivariate maternal effects in wild populations.

The Evolution of Multivariate Maternal Effects

PubMed Central

Kuijper, Bram; Johnstone, Rufus A.; Townley, Stuart

2014-01-01

There is a growing interest in predicting the social and ecological contexts that favor the evolution of maternal effects. Most predictions focus, however, on maternal effects that affect only a single character, whereas the evolution of maternal effects is poorly understood in the presence of suites of interacting traits. To overcome this, we simulate the evolution of multivariate maternal effects (captured by the matrix M) in a fluctuating environment. We find that the rate of environmental fluctuations has a substantial effect on the properties of M: in slowly changing environments, offspring are selected to have a multivariate phenotype roughly similar to the maternal phenotype, so that M is characterized by positive dominant eigenvalues; by contrast, rapidly changing environments favor Ms with dominant eigenvalues that are negative, as offspring favor a phenotype which substantially differs from the maternal phenotype. Moreover, when fluctuating selection on one maternal character is temporally delayed relative to selection on other traits, we find a striking pattern of cross-trait maternal effects in which maternal characters influence not only the same character in offspring, but also other offspring characters. Additionally, when selection on one character contains more stochastic noise relative to selection on other traits, large cross-trait maternal effects evolve from those maternal traits that experience the smallest amounts of noise. The presence of these cross-trait maternal effects shows that individual maternal effects cannot be studied in isolation, and that their study in a multivariate context may provide important insights about the nature of past selection. Our results call for more studies that measure multivariate maternal effects in wild populations. PMID:24722346

Meteorological fluctuations define long-term crop yield patterns in conventional and organic production systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Periodic variability in meteorological patterns presents significant challenges to crop production consistency and yield stability. Meteorological influences on corn and soybean grain yields were analyzed over an 18-year period at a long-term experiment in Beltsville, Maryland, U.S.A., comparing c...

Effects of fluctuating flows and a controlled flood on incubation success and early survival rates and growth of age-0 rainbow trout in a large regulated river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Kaplinski, Matthew; Melis, Theodore S.

2011-01-01

Hourly fluctuations in flow from Glen Canyon Dam were increased in an attempt to limit the population of nonnative rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Colorado River, Arizona, due to concerns about negative effects of nonnative trout on endangered native fishes. Controlled floods have also been conducted to enhance native fish habitat. We estimated that rainbow trout incubation mortality rates resulting from greater fluctuations in flow were 23-49% (2003 and 2004) compared with 5-11% under normal flow fluctuations (2006-2010). Effects of this mortality were apparent in redd excavations but were not seen in hatch date distributions or in the abundance of the age-0 population. Multiple lines of evidence indicated that a controlled flood in March 2008, which was intended to enhance native fish habitat, resulted in a large increase in early survival rates of age-0 rainbow trout. Age-0 abundance in July 2008 was over fourfold higher than expected given the number of viable eggs that produced these fish. A hatch date analysis indicated that early survival rates were much higher for cohorts that hatched about 1 month after the controlled flood (~April 15) relative to those that hatched before this date. The cohorts that were fertilized after the flood were not exposed to high flows and emerged into better-quality habitat with elevated food availability. Interannual differences in age-0 rainbow trout growth based on otolith microstructure supported this hypothesis. It is likely that strong compensation in survival rates shortly after emergence mitigated the impact of incubation losses caused by increases in flow fluctuations. Control of nonnative fish populations will be most effective when additional mortality is applied to older life stages after the majority of density-dependent mortality has occurred. Our study highlights the need to rigorously assess instream flow decisions through the evaluation of population-level responses.

Breeding of White-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon lepturus) in the western South Atlantic.

PubMed

Leal, G R; Serafini, P P; Simão-Neto, I; Ladle, R J; Efe, M A

2016-04-19

Basic information on natural history is crucial for assessing the viability of populations, but is often lacking for many species of conservation concern. One such species is the White-tailed Tropicbird, Phaethon lepturus (Mathews, 1915). Here, we address this shortfall by providing detailed information on reproductive biology, distribution and threats on the Fernando de Noronha archipelago, Brazil - the largest colony of P. lepturus in the South Atlantic. We assessed reproduction from August 2011 to January 2012 by monitoring tropicbird nests and their contents. A population estimate was obtained through a combination of active searches for nests and by census at sea between 2010 and 2012. Breeding success was calculated by traditional methods. The growth curve of chicks and life table were also calculated. Additional information on nest and mate fidelity and on age of breeding birds was obtained from the banded birds. Our results indicate that the unusual nest form (limestone pinnacles) and predation by crabs may be responsible for the observed patterns of hatching and fledging success. Although the Fernando de Noronha population appears to be stable (at between 100-300 birds), a long term monitoring program would be desirable to assess fluctuations in this globally important population. Conservation strategies should focus on controlling predation by land crabs and tegu lizards.

Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

PubMed Central

Tack, Ayco J. M.; Mononen, Tommi; Hanski, Ilkka

2015-01-01

Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics. PMID:25854888

Species composition and dietary relationships in a brackish shallow water fish assemblage in the Bothnian Sea, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorman, Staffan; Wiederholm, Anne-Marie

1984-09-01

A nearshore fish assemblage inhabiting a shallow bay in the southern Bothnian Sea, Sweden, with demanding environmental conditions (c. 5‰; >15°C during 4 months 1980 and 1 month 1981) was studied during a two-year period, in 1980 and 1981. Seasonal distribution patterns, dietary relationships, and growth rates were studied in Pungitius pungitius (L.), Pomatoschistus minutus (Pallas.), Gasterosteus aculeatus (L.), Phoxinus phoxinus (L.), Pomatoschistus microps (Krøyer) and Gobius niger L. The structure of the juvenile populations changed both over seasons and years but the adult populations remained constant. Lower water temperature, fewer individuals, lower and delayed fish growth, and lower interspecific food overlaps were found in 1981 compared to 1980. Few significant correlations were found in both years between the following community parameters: diversity, niche width, food overlap, and the proportion of each species in the fish assemblage. According to these results it is suggested that food competition and resource partitioning were of minor importance for the structuring of the fish community in the present area. Rather, the extreme salinity and the fluctuations in temperature regulated the fish populations. One may conclude that the populations of juveniles were more influenced by short-term changes in the environment than those of the adults.

On the Structure of Neuronal Population Activity under Fluctuations in Attentional State

PubMed Central

Denfield, George H.; Bethge, Matthias; Tolias, Andreas S.

2016-01-01

Attention is commonly thought to improve behavioral performance by increasing response gain and suppressing shared variability in neuronal populations. However, both the focus and the strength of attention are likely to vary from one experimental trial to the next, thereby inducing response variability unknown to the experimenter. Here we study analytically how fluctuations in attentional state affect the structure of population responses in a simple model of spatial and feature attention. In our model, attention acts on the neural response exclusively by modulating each neuron's gain. Neurons are conditionally independent given the stimulus and the attentional gain, and correlated activity arises only from trial-to-trial fluctuations of the attentional state, which are unknown to the experimenter. We find that this simple model can readily explain many aspects of neural response modulation under attention, such as increased response gain, reduced individual and shared variability, increased correlations with firing rates, limited range correlations, and differential correlations. We therefore suggest that attention may act primarily by increasing response gain of individual neurons without affecting their correlation structure. The experimentally observed reduction in correlations may instead result from reduced variability of the attentional gain when a stimulus is attended. Moreover, we show that attentional gain fluctuations, even if unknown to a downstream readout, do not impair the readout accuracy despite inducing limited-range correlations, whereas fluctuations of the attended feature can in principle limit behavioral performance. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Covert attention is one of the most widely studied examples of top-down modulation of neural activity in the visual system. Recent studies argue that attention improves behavioral performance by shaping of the noise distribution to suppress shared variability rather than by increasing response gain. Our work shows, however, that latent, trial-to-trial fluctuations of the focus and strength of attention lead to shared variability that is highly consistent with known experimental observations. Interestingly, fluctuations in the strength of attention do not affect coding performance. As a consequence, the experimentally observed changes in response variability may not be a mechanism of attention, but rather a side effect of attentional allocation strategies in different behavioral contexts. PMID:26843656

Dancing with the Tides: Fluctuations of Coastal Phytoplankton Orchestrated by Different Oscillatory Modes of the Tidal Cycle

PubMed Central

Blauw, Anouk N.; Benincà, Elisa; Laane, Remi W. P. M.; Greenwood, Naomi; Huisman, Jef

2012-01-01

Population fluctuations are often driven by an interplay between intrinsic population processes and extrinsic environmental forcing. To investigate this interplay, we analyzed fluctuations in coastal phytoplankton concentration in relation to the tidal cycle. Time series of chlorophyll fluorescence, suspended particulate matter (SPM), salinity and temperature were obtained from an automated measuring platform in the southern North Sea, covering 9 years of data at a resolution of 12 to 30 minutes. Wavelet analysis showed that chlorophyll fluctuations were dominated by periodicities of 6 hours 12 min, 12 hours 25 min, 24 hours and 15 days, which correspond to the typical periodicities of tidal current speeds, the semidiurnal tidal cycle, the day-night cycle, and the spring-neap tidal cycle, respectively. During most of the year, chlorophyll and SPM fluctuated in phase with tidal current speed, indicative of alternating periods of sinking and vertical mixing of algal cells and SPM driven by the tidal cycle. Spring blooms slowly built up over several spring-neap tidal cycles, and subsequently expanded in late spring when a strong decline of the SPM concentration during neap tide enabled a temporary “escape” of the chlorophyll concentration from the tidal mixing regime. Our results demonstrate that the tidal cycle is a major determinant of phytoplankton fluctuations at several different time scales. These findings imply that high-resolution monitoring programs are essential to capture the natural variability of phytoplankton in coastal waters. PMID:23166639

Dancing with the tides: fluctuations of coastal phytoplankton orchestrated by different oscillatory modes of the tidal cycle.

PubMed

Blauw, Anouk N; Benincà, Elisa; Laane, Remi W P M; Greenwood, Naomi; Huisman, Jef

2012-01-01

Population fluctuations are often driven by an interplay between intrinsic population processes and extrinsic environmental forcing. To investigate this interplay, we analyzed fluctuations in coastal phytoplankton concentration in relation to the tidal cycle. Time series of chlorophyll fluorescence, suspended particulate matter (SPM), salinity and temperature were obtained from an automated measuring platform in the southern North Sea, covering 9 years of data at a resolution of 12 to 30 minutes. Wavelet analysis showed that chlorophyll fluctuations were dominated by periodicities of 6 hours 12 min, 12 hours 25 min, 24 hours and 15 days, which correspond to the typical periodicities of tidal current speeds, the semidiurnal tidal cycle, the day-night cycle, and the spring-neap tidal cycle, respectively. During most of the year, chlorophyll and SPM fluctuated in phase with tidal current speed, indicative of alternating periods of sinking and vertical mixing of algal cells and SPM driven by the tidal cycle. Spring blooms slowly built up over several spring-neap tidal cycles, and subsequently expanded in late spring when a strong decline of the SPM concentration during neap tide enabled a temporary "escape" of the chlorophyll concentration from the tidal mixing regime. Our results demonstrate that the tidal cycle is a major determinant of phytoplankton fluctuations at several different time scales. These findings imply that high-resolution monitoring programs are essential to capture the natural variability of phytoplankton in coastal waters.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Lensing of 21-cm fluctuations by primordial gravitational waves.

PubMed

Book, Laura; Kamionkowski, Marc; Schmidt, Fabian

2012-05-25

Weak-gravitational-lensing distortions to the intensity pattern of 21-cm radiation from the dark ages can be decomposed geometrically into curl and curl-free components. Lensing by primordial gravitational waves induces a curl component, while the contribution from lensing by density fluctuations is strongly suppressed. Angular fluctuations in the 21-cm background extend to very small angular scales, and measurements at different frequencies probe different shells in redshift space. There is thus a huge trove of information with which to reconstruct the curl component of the lensing field, allowing tensor-to-scalar ratios conceivably as small as r~10(-9)-far smaller than those currently accessible-to be probed.

Changing pattern of premature mortality burden over 6 years of rapid growth of the economy in suburban south-west China: 1998-2003.

PubMed

Cai, Le; Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Geater, Alan

2008-05-01

This study was conducted in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan, a poor province in south-west China experiencing rapid economic growth. The study examined the short-term trend in premature mortality burden from common causes of death in a suburban region between 1998 and 2003. Years of life lost (YLL) per 1000 population and mortality rate per 100,000 population were calculated from medical death certificates, and broken down by cause of death, sex and year without age weighting but with a discounting rate of 3%. Non-communicable diseases contributed over 80% of all causes of YLL, with a slightly increasing trend. The combined rate for communicable, maternal, prenatal and nutritional deficiencies declined from 4.7 to 2.4 per 1000 population. Remarkably, declining trends in YLL were also seen for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, drug use and road traffic accidents, whereas increasing trends were seen for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and liver cancer (males). The YLL rate for stroke, self-inflicted injuries, lung cancer and stomach cancer fluctuated over time. The region should focus on further control of IHD and liver cancer.

Serial population extinctions in a small mammal indicate Late Pleistocene ecosystem instability

PubMed Central

Brace, Selina; Palkopoulou, Eleftheria; Dalén, Love; Lister, Adrian M.; Miller, Rebecca; Otte, Marcel; Germonpré, Mietje; Blockley, Simon P. E.; Stewart, John R.; Barnes, Ian

2012-01-01

The Late Pleistocene global extinction of many terrestrial mammal species has been a subject of intensive scientific study for over a century, yet the relative contributions of environmental changes and the global expansion of humans remain unresolved. A defining component of these extinctions is a bias toward large species, with the majority of small-mammal taxa apparently surviving into the present. Here, we investigate the population-level history of a key tundra-specialist small mammal, the collared lemming (Dicrostonyx torquatus), to explore whether events during the Late Pleistocene had a discernible effect beyond the large mammal fauna. Using ancient DNA techniques to sample across three sites in North-West Europe, we observe a dramatic reduction in genetic diversity in this species over the last 50,000 y. We further identify a series of extinction-recolonization events, indicating a previously unrecognized instability in Late Pleistocene small-mammal populations, which we link with climatic fluctuations. Our results reveal climate-associated, repeated regional extinctions in a keystone prey species across the Late Pleistocene, a pattern likely to have had an impact on the wider steppe-tundra community, and one that is concordant with environmental change as a major force in structuring Late Pleistocene biodiversity. PMID:23185018

Rhodnius prolixus and Rhodnius robustus-like (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) wing asymmetry under controlled conditions of population density and feeding frequency.

PubMed

Márquez, E J; Saldamando-Benjumea, C I

2013-09-01

Habitat change in Rhodnius spp may represent an environmental challenge for the development of the species, particularly when feeding frequency and population density vary in nature. To estimate the effect of these variables in stability on development, the degree of directional asymmetry (DA) and fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in the wing size and shape of R. prolixus and R. robustus-like were measured under laboratory controlled conditions. DA and FA in wing size and shape were significant in both species, but their variation patterns showed both inter-specific and sexual dimorphic differences in FA of wing size and shape induced by nutrition stress. These results suggest different abilities of the genotypes and sexes of two sylvatic and domestic genotypes of Rhodnius to buffer these stress conditions. However, both species showed non-significant differences in the levels of FA between treatments that simulated sylvan vs domestic conditions, indicating that the developmental noise did not explain the variation in wing size and shape found in previous studies. Thus, this result confirm that the variation in wing size and shape in response to treatments constitute a plastic response of these genotypes to population density and feeding frequency.

From single steps to mass migration: the problem of scale in the movement ecology of the Serengeti wildebeest.

PubMed

Torney, Colin J; Hopcraft, J Grant C; Morrison, Thomas A; Couzin, Iain D; Levin, Simon A

2018-05-19

A central question in ecology is how to link processes that occur over different scales. The daily interactions of individual organisms ultimately determine community dynamics, population fluctuations and the functioning of entire ecosystems. Observations of these multiscale ecological processes are constrained by various technological, biological or logistical issues, and there are often vast discrepancies between the scale at which observation is possible and the scale of the question of interest. Animal movement is characterized by processes that act over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Second-by-second decisions accumulate to produce annual movement patterns. Individuals influence, and are influenced by, collective movement decisions, which then govern the spatial distribution of populations and the connectivity of meta-populations. While the field of movement ecology is experiencing unprecedented growth in the availability of movement data, there remain challenges in integrating observations with questions of ecological interest. In this article, we present the major challenges of addressing these issues within the context of the Serengeti wildebeest migration, a keystone ecological phenomena that crosses multiple scales of space, time and biological complexity.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'. © 2018 The Author(s).

The noisy edge of traveling waves

PubMed Central

Hallatschek, Oskar

2011-01-01

Traveling waves are ubiquitous in nature and control the speed of many important dynamical processes, including chemical reactions, epidemic outbreaks, and biological evolution. Despite their fundamental role in complex systems, traveling waves remain elusive because they are often dominated by rare fluctuations in the wave tip, which have defied any rigorous analysis so far. Here, we show that by adjusting nonlinear model details, noisy traveling waves can be solved exactly. The moment equations of these tuned models are closed and have a simple analytical structure resembling the deterministic approximation supplemented by a nonlocal cutoff term. The peculiar form of the cutoff shapes the noisy edge of traveling waves and is critical for the correct prediction of the wave speed and its fluctuations. Our approach is illustrated and benchmarked using the example of fitness waves arising in simple models of microbial evolution, which are highly sensitive to number fluctuations. We demonstrate explicitly how these models can be tuned to account for finite population sizes and determine how quickly populations adapt as a function of population size and mutation rates. More generally, our method is shown to apply to a broad class of models, in which number fluctuations are generated by branching processes. Because of this versatility, the method of model tuning may serve as a promising route toward unraveling universal properties of complex discrete particle systems. PMID:21187435

Fluctuating asymmetry and mentum gaps in populations of the midge Chironomus riparius (Diptera: Chironomidae) from a metal-contaminated River

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groenendijk, D.; Zeinstra, L.W.M.; Postma, J.F.

1998-10-01

The developmental stability of both metal-exposed and nonexposed Chironomus riparius populations from the lowland River Dommel was investigated using fluctuating asymmetry (FA) and the incidence of mentum gaps. It was hypothesized that larval development was affected by the influx of Cd, Zn, Fe, Cu, and Pb directly by chemical stress, as well as through inbreeding of metal-adapted and nonadapted specimens. Morphological para/meters were therefore assessed in field-collected larvae and in clean, laboratory-cultured, first-generation (F1) larvae. Fluctuating asymmetry values and mentum gap incidence at contaminated field sites were significantly higher than at clean, upstream locations. Furthermore, FA values of clean, laboratory-culturedmore » F1 larvae generally fell to reference values, indicating the direct effect of metal pollution on developmental aberrations. Mentum gaps were not observed in clean F1 cultures. Slightly elevated FA values were, however, still observed in clean F1 larvae from polluted locations downstream from the metal input. This residual disturbance was thought to reflect genetic stress emerging from interbreeding between metal-adapted and nonadapted specimens. Fluctuating asymmetry and mentum gaps together serve as a useful ecotoxicological marker for metal stress and, when combined with in situ studies and F1 cultures, allow for analysis of the response of animal populations to spatial and temporal gradients in metal exposure.« less

Hydroclimatology of Dual-Peak Annual Cholera Incidence: Insights from a Spatially Explicit Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-12-01

Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g. sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of precipitation and river flows. To single out the single out the hydroclimatologic controls on the prevalence patterns in a non-specific geographical context, we first apply the model to Optimal Channel Networks as a general model of hydrological networks. Moreover, we impose a uniform distribution of population. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely precipitation, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. We then proceed applying the model to the specific settings of Bay of Bengal accounting for the actual river networks (derived from digital terrain map manipulations), the proper distribution of population (estimated from downscaling of census data based on remotely sensed features) and precipitation patterns. Overall our modeling framework suggests insights on how environmental drivers concert the generation of complex spatiotemporal infections and proposes an explanation for the different cholera patterns (dual or single annual peaks) exhibited by regions that share similar hydroclimatological forcings.

Contrasting Phylogeography of Sandy vs. Rocky Supralittoral Isopods in the Megadiverse and Geologically Dynamic Gulf of California and Adjacent Areas

PubMed Central

Hurtado, Luis A.; Lee, Eun Jung; Mateos, Mariana

2013-01-01

Phylogeographic studies of animals with low vagility and restricted to patchy habitats of the supralittoral zone, can uncover unknown diversity and shed light on processes that shaped evolution along a continent’s edge. The Pacific coast between southern California and central Mexico, including the megadiverse Gulf of California, offers a remarkable setting to study biological diversification in the supralittoral. A complex geological history coupled with cyclical fluctuations in temperature and sea level provided ample opportunities for diversification of supralittoral organisms. Indeed, a previous phylogeographic study of Ligia, a supralittoral isopod that has limited dispersal abilities and is restricted to rocky patches, revealed high levels of morphologically cryptic diversity. Herein, we examined phylogeographic patterns of Tylos, another supralittoral isopod with limited dispersal potential, but whose habitat (i.e., sandy shores) appears to be more extensive and connected than that of Ligia. We conducted Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences. These analyses revealed multiple highly divergent lineages with discrete regional distributions, despite the recognition of a single valid species for this region. A traditional species-diagnostic morphological trait distinguished several of these lineages. The phylogeographic patterns of Tylos inside the Gulf of California show a deep and complex history. In contrast, patterns along the Pacific region between southern California and the Baja Peninsula indicate a recent range expansion, probably postglacial and related to changes in sea surface temperature (SST). In general, the phylogeographic patterns of Tylos differed from those of Ligia. Differences in the extension and connectivity of the habitats occupied by Tylos and Ligia may account for the different degrees of population isolation experienced by these two isopods and their contrasting phylogeographic patterns. Identification of divergent lineages of Tylos in the study area is important for conservation, as some populations are threatened by human activities. PMID:23844103

Patterns of gene variation in central and marginal populations of Drosophila robusta.

PubMed

Prakash, S

1973-10-01

The central and marginal populations of D. robusta differ greatly in the level of inversion polymorphism; the marginal populations are monomorphic or nearly so and the central populations are highly polymorphic. This paper presents the frequencies of alleles at forty gene loci in various populations of D. robusta, studied by electrophoresis of proteins and enzymes. Population samples were obtained from eight widely separated populations of D. robusta which included the central, the extreme marginal and the intervening populations between the center and the margins. We find that the proportion of polymorphic loci and average heterozygosity per individual is slightly higher in the marginal populations than the central populations. In D. robusta on an average, 39% of the loci are polymorphic and the average proportion of loci heterozygous per individual is 11%. A breakdown of loci in three categories, viz, hydrolytic enzymes and some other enzymes, larval proteins and glycolytic and Kreb's cycle enzymes, shows that in all populations the level of polymorphism is highest in the hydrolytic enzymes, intermediate in larval proteins and least in the glycolytic and Kreb's cycle enzymes. On the average, the proportion of loci heterozygous per individual for three groups of loci is: hydrolytic enzymes and others (.164), larval proteins (.115) and glycolytic and Kreb's cycle enzymes (.037). We also observe that in all populations the level of polymorphism on the X chromosome is far less than the expected 38%; in salivary gland cells the euchromatic length of the X chromosome is 38% of the entire genome. Lower levels of polymorphism for the X chromosome loci are explained due to low probability of balanced polymorphisms for the X-linked loci since the conditions for establishment of balanced polymorphism for X-linked loci are more restrictive than for the autosomal loci.-The polymorphic loci can be grouped according to pattern of allele frequencies in different populations as follows: (1) The allele frequencies are similar in all populations at the XDH, Pep-1 and Hex-1 loci. (2) The alleles at the Est-1, Est-2, Amy loci and the AP-4(1.0) and the LAP-1(.90) alleles show north south clinal change in frequency. (3) There is north south and east west differentiation at the Pt-5, Pt-8 and Pt-9 loci and the allele AP-4(.81). (4) Polymorphism at loci such as Fum, B.Ox, Hex-8, Pep-2 and Pep-3 are restricted to only one or two of the populations. (5) Allele frequencies at the MDH and ODH loci fluctuate between populations. (6) Allele frequencies at many polymorphic loci such as Est-1, Est-2, LAP-1, AP-4, Pt-5, Pt-8, Pt-9, Pt-16, MDH, Fum change clinally within a gene arrangement. The pattern of gene variation in D. robusta is very complex and cannot be easily explained due to migration of neutral alleles between once-isolated populations or to semi-isolation of neutral alleles. The observations of the pattern of allele variation in different populations, high levels of polymorphism in the marginal populations which have small population size and low levels of polymorphism of the X chromosome loci all support the argument in favor of balancing selection as the main mechanism for the maintenance of these polymorphisms. Environmental factors must play a role in the maintenance of a great deal of these polymorphisms, since we observe clinal allele frequency changes even within a given inversion type.

Patterns of Gene Variation in Central and Marginal Populations of DROSOPHILA ROBUSTA

PubMed Central

Prakash, Satya

1973-01-01

The central and marginal populations of D. robusta differ greatly in the level of inversion polymorphism; the marginal populations are monomorphic or nearly so and the central populations are highly polymorphic. This paper presents the frequencies of alleles at forty gene loci in various populations of D. robusta, studied by electrophoresis of proteins and enzymes. Population samples were obtained from eight widely separated populations of D. robusta which included the central, the extreme marginal and the intervening populations between the center and the margins. We find that the proportion of polymorphic loci and average heterozygosity per individual is slightly higher in the marginal populations than the central populations. In D. robusta on an average, 39% of the loci are polymorphic and the average proportion of loci heterozygous per individual is 11%. A breakdown of loci in three categories, viz, hydrolytic enzymes and some other enzymes, larval proteins and glycolytic and Kreb's cycle enzymes, shows that in all populations the level of polymorphism is highest in the hydrolytic enzymes, intermediate in larval proteins and least in the glycolytic and Kreb's cycle enzymes. On the average, the proportion of loci heterozygous per individual for three groups of loci is: hydrolytic enzymes and others (.164), larval proteins (.115) and glycolytic and Kreb's cycle enzymes (.037). We also observe that in all populations the level of polymorphism on the X chromosome is far less than the expected 38%; in salivary gland cells the euchromatic length of the X chromosome is 38% of the entire genome. Lower levels of polymorphism for the X chromosome loci are explained due to low probability of balanced polymorphisms for the X-linked loci since the conditions for establishment of balanced polymorphism for X-linked loci are more restrictive than for the autosomal loci.—The polymorphic loci can be grouped according to pattern of allele frequencies in different populations as follows: (1) The allele frequencies are similar in all populations at the XDH, Pep-1 and Hex-1 loci. (2) The alleles at the Est-1, Est-2, Amy loci and the AP-41.0 and the LAP-1.90 alleles show north south clinal change in frequency. (3) There is north south and east west differentiation at the Pt-5, Pt-8 and Pt-9 loci and the allele AP-4.81. (4) Polymorphism at loci such as Fum, B.Ox, Hex-8, Pep-2 and Pep-3 are restricted to only one or two of the populations. (5) Allele frequencies at the MDH and ODH loci fluctuate between populations. (6) Allele frequencies at many polymorphic loci such as Est-1, Est-2, LAP-1, AP-4, Pt-5, Pt-8, Pt-9, Pt-16, MDH, Fum change clinally within a gene arrangement. The pattern of gene variation in D. robusta is very complex and cannot be easily explained due to migration of neutral alleles between once-isolated populations or to semi-isolation of neutral alleles. The observations of the pattern of allele variation in different populations, high levels of polymorphism in the marginal populations which have small population size and low levels of polymorphism of the X chromosome loci all support the argument in favor of balancing selection as the main mechanism for the maintenance of these polymorphisms. Environmental factors must play a role in the maintenance of a great deal of these polymorphisms, since we observe clinal allele frequency changes even within a given inversion type. PMID:4203580

Study of droplet flow in a T-shape microchannel with bottom wall fluctuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Yan; Wang, Xiang; Liu, Zhaomiao

2018-03-01

Droplet generation in a T-shape microchannel, with a main channel width of 50 μm , side channel width of 25 μm, and height of 50 μm, is simulated to study the effects of the forced fluctuation of the bottom wall. The periodic fluctuations of the bottom wall are applied on the near junction part of the main channel in the T-shape microchannel. Effects of bottom wall's shape, fluctuation periods, and amplitudes on the droplet generation are covered in the research of this protocol. In the simulation, the average size is affected a little by the fluctuations, but significantly by the fixed shape of the deformed bottom wall, while the droplet size range is expanded by the fluctuations under most of the conditions. Droplet sizes are distributed in a periodic pattern with small amplitude along the relative time when the fluctuation is forced on the bottom wall near the T-junction, while the droplet emerging frequency is not varied by the fluctuation. The droplet velocity is varied by the bottom wall motion, especially under the shorter period and the larger amplitude. When the fluctuation period is similar to the droplet emerging period, the droplet size is as stable as the non-fluctuation case after a development stage at the beginning of flow, while the droplet velocity is varied by the moving wall with the scope up to 80% of the average velocity under the conditions of this investigation.

Population Cycles, Disease, and Networks of Ecological Knowledge.

PubMed

Jones, Susan D

2017-05-01

Wildlife populations in the northern reaches of the globe have long been observed to fluctuate or cycle periodically, with dramatic increases followed by catastrophic crashes. Focusing on the early work of Charles S. Elton, this article analyzes how investigations into population cycles shaped the development of Anglo-American animal ecology during the 1920s-1930s. Population cycling revealed patterns that challenged ideas about the "balance" of nature; stimulated efforts to quantify population data; and brought animal ecology into conversation with intellectual debates about natural selection. Elton used the problem of understanding wildlife population cycles to explore a central tension in ecological thought: the relative influences of local conditions (food supply, predation) and universal forces (such as climate change and natural selection) in regulating wild animal populations. He also sought patronage and built research practices and the influential Bureau of Animal Population around questions of population regulation during the 1930s. Focusing on disease as a local population regulator that could interact with global climatic influences, Elton facilitated an interdisciplinary and population-based approach in early animal ecology. Elton created a network of epidemiologists, conservationists, pathologists and mathematicians, who contributed to population cycle research. I argue that, although these people often remained peripheral to ecology, their ideas shaped the young discipline. Particularly important were the concepts of abundance, density, and disease; and the interactions between these factors and natural selection. However, Elton's reliance on density dependence unwittingly helped set up conditions conducive to the development of controversies in animal ecology in later years. While ecologists did not come to consensus on the ultimate causes of population cycles, this phenomenon was an important early catalyst for the development of theory and practice in animal ecology.

Thermally induced chronic developmental stress in coho salmon: Integrating measures of mortality, early growth and fluctuating asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, W.B.; Emlen, J.M.; Hershberger, W.K.

1998-01-01

Developmental stability, or homeostasis, facilitates the production of consistent phenotypes by buffering against stress. Fluctuating asymmetry is produced by developmental instability and is manifested as small random departures from bilateral symmetry. Increased fluctuating asymmetry is thought to parallel compromised fitness, in part, because stress promotes energy dissipation. Compensatory energy expenditures within the organism are required to complete development, thus promoting instability through reductions in homeostasis. Increased heterozygosity may enhance developmental stability by reducing energy dissipation from stress through increased metabolic efficiency, possibly by providing greater flexibility in metabolic pathways. Traditionally, fluctuating asymmetry has been used as a bioindicator of chronic stress, provided that selective mortality of less fit individuals did not reduce stress-mediated increases in fluctuating asymmetry to background levels produced by natural developmental error, or create data inconsistencies such as higher asymmetry in groups exposed to lower stress. Unfortunately, absence of selective mortality and its effects, while often assumed, can be difficult to substantiate. We integrated measures of early growth, mortality, fluctuating asymmetry (mandibular pores, pectoral finrays, pelvic finrays, and gillrakers on the upper and lower arms of the first branchial arch) and directional asymmetry (branchiostegal rays) to assess chronic thermal stress (fluctuating temperatures as opposed to ambient temperatures) in developing eggs from two different coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) stocks and their reciprocal hybrids. Hybridization provided insight on the capacity of heterozygosity to reduce stress during development. Although egg losses were consistently higher in crosses exposed to fluctuating temperatures, egg mortality was predominantly a function of maternal stock of origin. Post-hatch losses were higher in crosses exposed to ambient temperatures than in crosses exposed to fluctuating temperatures during embryogenesis. Observed patterns of early growth revealed no heterosis, but instead reflected maternal effects, with some crosses slowing growth and yolk utilization when exposed to fluctuating temperatures. Analyses of fluctuating asymmetry also showed no effects from heterosis. While analyses of composite asymmetry scores and branchiostegal rays were inconclusive, analyses of individual characters showed significantly higher fluctuating asymmetry in pelvic finray counts and a marginal change in the numbers of fish asymmetric for this character in crosses exposed to chronic thermal stress. In contrast, the fluctuating asymmetry in lower gillraker counts was significantly higher in crosses exposed to ambient temperatures and there were significantly more fish asymmetric for this character. Data on mortalities and fluctuating asymmetry indicate pelvic finray development was thermally stressed, while the heightened fluctuating asymmetry in lower gillraker counts under ambient temperatures was due to a greater frequency of less fit fish that had not been culled by thermal stress. Changes in early growth patterns in response to developmental stress yielded no parallel responses in meristic characters. We conclude that chronic thermal stress produced both selectively lethal and sublethal effects that directly shaped fluctuating asymmetry and fitness profiles in these crosses. Implicit in this conclusion is that developmental instability analyses can detect more than just chronic sublethal stress, thus providing substantial credence for using instability studies as proactive bioassessment methodologies.

A stochastic model for the probability of malaria extinction by mass drug administration.

PubMed

Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Chitnis, Nakul; Pothin, Emilie; Smith, Thomas A

2017-09-18

Mass drug administration (MDA) has been proposed as an intervention to achieve local extinction of malaria. Although its effect on the reproduction number is short lived, extinction may subsequently occur in a small population due to stochastic fluctuations. This paper examines how the probability of stochastic extinction depends on population size, MDA coverage and the reproduction number under control, R c . A simple compartmental model is developed which is used to compute the probability of extinction using probability generating functions. The expected time to extinction in small populations after MDA for various scenarios in this model is calculated analytically. The results indicate that mass drug administration (Firstly, R c must be sustained at R c  < 1.2 to avoid the rapid re-establishment of infections in the population. Secondly, the MDA must produce effective cure rates of >95% to have a non-negligible probability of successful elimination. Stochastic fluctuations only significantly affect the probability of extinction in populations of about 1000 individuals or less. The expected time to extinction via stochastic fluctuation is less than 10 years only in populations less than about 150 individuals. Clustering of secondary infections and of MDA distribution both contribute positively to the potential probability of success, indicating that MDA would most effectively be administered at the household level. There are very limited circumstances in which MDA will lead to local malaria elimination with a substantial probability.

Role of local network oscillations in resting-state functional connectivity.

PubMed

Cabral, Joana; Hugues, Etienne; Sporns, Olaf; Deco, Gustavo

2011-07-01

Spatio-temporally organized low-frequency fluctuations (<0.1 Hz), observed in BOLD fMRI signal during rest, suggest the existence of underlying network dynamics that emerge spontaneously from intrinsic brain processes. Furthermore, significant correlations between distinct anatomical regions-or functional connectivity (FC)-have led to the identification of several widely distributed resting-state networks (RSNs). This slow dynamics seems to be highly structured by anatomical connectivity but the mechanism behind it and its relationship with neural activity, particularly in the gamma frequency range, remains largely unknown. Indeed, direct measurements of neuronal activity have revealed similar large-scale correlations, particularly in slow power fluctuations of local field potential gamma frequency range oscillations. To address these questions, we investigated neural dynamics in a large-scale model of the human brain's neural activity. A key ingredient of the model was a structural brain network defined by empirically derived long-range brain connectivity together with the corresponding conduction delays. A neural population, assumed to spontaneously oscillate in the gamma frequency range, was placed at each network node. When these oscillatory units are integrated in the network, they behave as weakly coupled oscillators. The time-delayed interaction between nodes is described by the Kuramoto model of phase oscillators, a biologically-based model of coupled oscillatory systems. For a realistic setting of axonal conduction speed, we show that time-delayed network interaction leads to the emergence of slow neural activity fluctuations, whose patterns correlate significantly with the empirically measured FC. The best agreement of the simulated FC with the empirically measured FC is found for a set of parameters where subsets of nodes tend to synchronize although the network is not globally synchronized. Inside such clusters, the simulated BOLD signal between nodes is found to be correlated, instantiating the empirically observed RSNs. Between clusters, patterns of positive and negative correlations are observed, as described in experimental studies. These results are found to be robust with respect to a biologically plausible range of model parameters. In conclusion, our model suggests how resting-state neural activity can originate from the interplay between the local neural dynamics and the large-scale structure of the brain. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Social-ecological interactions, management panaceas, and the future of wild fish populations

PubMed Central

van Poorten, Brett T.; Arlinghaus, Robert; Daedlow, Katrin; Haertel-Borer, Susanne S.

2011-01-01

We explored the social and ecological outcomes associated with emergence of a management panacea designed to govern a stochastic renewable natural resource. To that end, we constructed a model of a coupled social-ecological system of recreational fisheries in which a manager supports naturally fluctuating stocks by stocking fish in response to harvest-driven satisfaction of resource users. The realistic assumption of users remembering past harvest experiences when exploiting a stochastically fluctuating fish population facilitates the emergence of a stocking-based management panacea over time. The social benefits of panacea formation involve dampening natural population fluctuations and generating stability of user satisfaction. It also maintains the resource but promotes the eventual replacement of wild fish by hatchery-descended fish. Our analyses show this outcome is particularly likely when hatchery-descended fish are reasonably fit (e.g., characterized by similar survival relative to wild fish) and/or when natural recruitment of the wild population is low (e.g., attributable to habitat deterioration), which leaves the wild population with little buffer against competition by stocked fish. The potential for release-based panacea formation is particularly likely under user-based management regimes and should be common in a range of social-ecological systems (e.g., fisheries, forestry), whenever user groups are entitled to engage in release or replanting strategies. The net result will be the preservation of a renewable resource through user-based incentives, but the once natural populations are likely to be altered and to host nonnative genotypes. This risks other ecosystem services and the future of wild populations. PMID:21742983

Colder environments did not select for a faster metabolism during experimental evolution of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Alton, Lesley A; Condon, Catriona; White, Craig R; Angilletta, Michael J

2017-01-01

The effect of temperature on the evolution of metabolism has been the subject of debate for a century; however, no consistent patterns have emerged from comparisons of metabolic rate within and among species living at different temperatures. We used experimental evolution to determine how metabolism evolves in populations of Drosophila melanogaster exposed to one of three selective treatments: a constant 16°C, a constant 25°C, or temporal fluctuations between 16 and 25°C. We tested August Krogh's controversial hypothesis that colder environments select for a faster metabolism. Given that colder environments also experience greater seasonality, we also tested the hypothesis that temporal variation in temperature may be the factor that selects for a faster metabolism. We measured the metabolic rate of flies from each selective treatment at 16, 20.5, and 25°C. Although metabolism was faster at higher temperatures, flies from the selective treatments had similar metabolic rates at each measurement temperature. Based on variation among genotypes within populations, heritable variation in metabolism was likely sufficient for adaptation to occur. We conclude that colder or seasonal environments do not necessarily select for a faster metabolism. Rather, other factors besides temperature likely contribute to patterns of metabolic rate over thermal clines in nature. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Epidemics in small world networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telo da Gama, M. M.; Nunes, A.

2006-03-01

For many infectious diseases, a small-world network on an underlying regular lattice is a suitable simplified model for the contact structure of the host population. It is well known that the contact network, described in this setting by a single parameter, the small-world parameter p, plays an important role both in the short term and in the long term dynamics of epidemic spread. We have studied the effect of the network structure on models of immune for life diseases and found that in addition to the reduction of the effective transmission rate, through the screening of infectives, spatial correlations may strongly enhance the stochastic fluctuations. As a consequence, time series of unforced Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models provide patterns of recurrent epidemics with realistic amplitudes, suggesting that these models together with complex networks of contacts are the key ingredients to describe the prevaccination dynamical patterns of diseases such as measles and pertussis. We have also studied the role of the host contact strucuture in pathogen antigenic variation, through its effect on the final outcome of an invasion by a viral strain of a population where a very similar virus is endemic. Similar viral strains are modelled by the same infection and reinfection parameters, and by a given degree of cross immunity that represents the antigenic distance between the competing strains. We have found, somewhat surprisingly, that clustering on the network decreases the potential to sustain pathogen diversity.

Vulnerability of shortgrass prairie bird assemblages to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Dreitz, Victoria; Conrey, Reesa Y.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.; Knuffman, Lekha

2016-01-01

The habitats and resources needed to support grassland birds endemic to North American prairie ecosystems are seriously threatened by impending climate change. To assess the vulnerability of grassland birds to climate change, we consider various components of vulnerability, including sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity (Glick et al. 2011). Sensitivity encompasses the innate characteristics of a species and, in this context, is related to a species’ tolerance to changes in weather patterns. Groundnesting birds, including prairie birds, are particularly responsive to heat waves combined with drought conditions, as revealed by abundance and distribution patterns (Albright et al. 2010). To further assess sensitivity, we estimated reproductive parameters of nearly 3000 breeding attempts of a suite of prairie birds relative to prevailing weather. Fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado, 1997-2014, influenced breeding performance of a suite of avian species endemic to the shortgrass prairie, many of which have experienced recent population declines. High summer temperatures and intense rain events corresponded with lower nest survival for most species. Although dry conditions favored nest survival of Burrowing Owls and Mountain Plovers (Conrey 2010, Dreitz et al. 2012), drought resulted in smaller clutch sizes and lower nest survival for passerines (Skagen and Yackel Adams 2012, Conrey et al. in review). Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that some passerine species can maintain stable breeding populations in this region of the shortgrass prairie.

Tracking memory's trace

PubMed Central

Horn, Gabriel; Nicol, Alister U.; Brown, Malcolm W.

2001-01-01

There is strong converging evidence that the intermediate and medial part of the hyperstriatum ventrale of the chick brain is a memory store for information acquired through the learning process of imprinting. Neurons in this memory system come, through imprinting, to respond selectively to the imprinting stimulus (IS) neurons and so possess the properties of a memory trace. Therefore, the responses of the intermediate and medial part of the hyperstriatum ventrale neurons to a visual imprinting stimulus were determined before, during, and after training. Of the total recorded population, the proportions of IS neurons shortly after each of two 1-h training sessions were significantly higher (approximately 2 times) than the pretraining proportion. However, ≈4.5 h later this proportion had fallen significantly and did not differ significantly from the pretraining proportion. Nevertheless, ≈21.5 h after the end of training, the proportion of IS neurons was at its highest (approximately 3 times the pretraining level). No significant fluctuations occurred in the proportions of neurons responding to the alternative stimulus. In addition, nonmonotonic changes were found commonly in the activity of 230 of the neurons tracked individually from before training to shortly after the end of training. Thus the pattern of change in responsiveness both at the population level and at the level of individual neurons was highly nonmonotonic. Such a pattern of change is not consistent with simple models of memory based on synaptic strengthening to asymptote. A model is proposed that accounts for the changes in the population responses to the imprinting stimulus in terms of changes in the responses of individual neurons. PMID:11296266

Seasonal Metabolic Acclimatization Varies in Direction and Magnitude among Populations of an Afrotropical Passerine Bird.

PubMed

Noakes, Matthew J; Wolf, Blair O; McKechnie, Andrew E

Avian metabolic responses demonstrate considerable diversity under fluctuating environmental conditions, a well-studied example being the seasonal upregulation of basal metabolic rate (BMR) and summit metabolism (M sum ) in temperate species experiencing harsh winters. Fewer studies have examined seasonal metabolic acclimatization in subtropical or tropical species. We investigated seasonal metabolic variation in an Afrotropical ploceid passerine, the white-browed sparrow-weaver (Plocepasser mahali; ∼47 g), at three sites along a climatic gradient of approximately 7°C in winter minimum air temperature (T a ). We measured M sum (n ≥ 10 per site per season) in a helox atmosphere, BMR of the same birds at thermoneutrality (T a ≈ 30°C), and resting metabolic rates at 5°C ≤ T a ≤ 20°C. Patterns of seasonal adjustments in BMR varied among populations in a manner not solely related to variation in seasonal T a extremes, ranging from BMR ∼52% higher in winter than in summer to no seasonal difference. Greater cold tolerance was found in a population at a colder desert site, manifested as higher M sum (∼25% higher) and lower helox temperature at cold limit values compared with a milder, mesic site. Our results lend support to the idea that greater variance in the pattern of seasonal metabolic responses occurs in subtropical and tropical species compared with their temperate-zone counterparts and that factors other than T a extremes (e.g., food availability) may be important in determining the magnitude and direction of seasonal metabolic adjustments in subtropical birds.

Avian photoreceptor patterns represent a disordered hyperuniform solution to a multiscale packing problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Yang; Lau, Timothy; Hatzikirou, Haralampos; Meyer-Hermann, Michael; Corbo, Joseph C.; Torquato, Salvatore

2014-02-01

Optimal spatial sampling of light rigorously requires that identical photoreceptors be arranged in perfectly regular arrays in two dimensions. Examples of such perfect arrays in nature include the compound eyes of insects and the nearly crystalline photoreceptor patterns of some fish and reptiles. Birds are highly visual animals with five different cone photoreceptor subtypes, yet their photoreceptor patterns are not perfectly regular. By analyzing the chicken cone photoreceptor system consisting of five different cell types using a variety of sensitive microstructural descriptors, we find that the disordered photoreceptor patterns are "hyperuniform" (exhibiting vanishing infinite-wavelength density fluctuations), a property that had heretofore been identified in a unique subset of physical systems, but had never been observed in any living organism. Remarkably, the patterns of both the total population and the individual cell types are simultaneously hyperuniform. We term such patterns "multihyperuniform" because multiple distinct subsets of the overall point pattern are themselves hyperuniform. We have devised a unique multiscale cell packing model in two dimensions that suggests that photoreceptor types interact with both short- and long-ranged repulsive forces and that the resultant competition between the types gives rise to the aforementioned singular spatial features characterizing the system, including multihyperuniformity. These findings suggest that a disordered hyperuniform pattern may represent the most uniform sampling arrangement attainable in the avian system, given intrinsic packing constraints within the photoreceptor epithelium. In addition, they show how fundamental physical constraints can change the course of a biological optimization process. Our results suggest that multihyperuniform disordered structures have implications for the design of materials with novel physical properties and therefore may represent a fruitful area for future research.

Measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution with source state errors and statistical fluctuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Cong; Yu, Zong-Wen; Wang, Xiang-Bin

2017-03-01

We show how to calculate the secure final key rate in the four-intensity decoy-state measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution protocol with both source errors and statistical fluctuations with a certain failure probability. Our results rely only on the range of only a few parameters in the source state. All imperfections in this protocol have been taken into consideration without assuming any specific error patterns of the source.

Macro-Scale Patterns in Upwelling/Downwelling Activity at North American West Coast

PubMed Central

Saldívar-Lucio, Romeo; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Nakamura, Miguel; Villalobos, Héctor; Lluch-Cota, Daniel; Del Monte-Luna, Pablo

2016-01-01

The seasonal and interannual variability of vertical transport (upwelling/downwelling) has been relatively well studied, mainly for the California Current System, including low-frequency changes and latitudinal heterogeneity. The aim of this work was to identify potentially predictable patterns in upwelling/downwelling activity along the North American west coast and discuss their plausible mechanisms. To this purpose we applied the min/max Autocorrelation Factor technique and time series analysis. We found that spatial co-variation of seawater vertical movements present three dominant low-frequency signals in the range of 33, 19 and 11 years, resembling periodicities of: atmospheric circulation, nodal moon tides and solar activity. Those periodicities might be related to the variability of vertical transport through their influence on dominant wind patterns, the position/intensity of pressure centers and the strength of atmospheric circulation cells (wind stress). The low-frequency signals identified in upwelling/downwelling are coherent with temporal patterns previously reported at the study region: sea surface temperature along the Pacific coast of North America, catch fluctuations of anchovy Engraulis mordax and sardine Sardinops sagax, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, changes in abundance and distribution of salmon populations, and variations in the position and intensity of the Aleutian low. Since the vertical transport is an oceanographic process with strong biological relevance, the recognition of their spatio-temporal patterns might allow for some reasonable forecasting capacity, potentially useful for marine resources management of the region. PMID:27893826

On the linkage between Arctic sea ice and Mid-latitude weather pattern: the situation in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, S.; Zhang, Y.; Wu, Q.

2017-12-01

The influence of Arctic changes on the weather patterns in the highly populated mid-latitude is a complex and controversial topic with considerable uncertainties such as the low signal-to-noise, ill-suited metrics of circulation changes and the missing of dynamical understanding. In this study, the possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the wintertime weather patterns in East Asia is investigated by comparing groups of statistical and diagnostic analyses. Our study shows a robust relationship between the early autumn SIC in Barents, Kara, Laptev and East Siberia Sea and the energies of wintertime transient activities corresponding to the weather patterns over East Asia on inter-annual time scales. With the reduction of SIC in autumn, the wintertime synoptic (2-10 day) kinetic energy in the north of Eurasia decreases while the low-frequency (10-30 days) kinetic energy, which corresponds to persistent weather patterns, exhibits an evident and dominant increase over the north of Caspian Sea, Lake Baikal and the Ural Mountain. With the reduction of SIC, the intra-seasonal temperature fluctuations present coherent changes over a broader region as well, with significant increase of the low-frequency variability in the vast north of Tibet Plateau and East Asia. The changes of the low-frequency transient activities may be attributed to the slowly southward propagating wave energies from polar regions. However, no consistent stratosphere signals are found associated with such linkage on inter-annual time scales.

Environmental Stochasticity and the Speed of Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danino, Matan; Kessler, David A.; Shnerb, Nadav M.

2018-03-01

Biological populations are subject to two types of noise: demographic stochasticity due to fluctuations in the reproductive success of individuals, and environmental variations that affect coherently the relative fitness of entire populations. The rate in which the average fitness of a community increases has been considered so far using models with pure demographic stochasticity; here we present some theoretical considerations and numerical results for the general case where environmental variations are taken into account. When the competition is pairwise, fitness fluctuations are shown to reduce the speed of evolution, while under global competition the speed increases due to environmental stochasticity.

Environmental Stochasticity and the Speed of Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danino, Matan; Kessler, David A.; Shnerb, Nadav M.

2018-07-01

Biological populations are subject to two types of noise: demographic stochasticity due to fluctuations in the reproductive success of individuals, and environmental variations that affect coherently the relative fitness of entire populations. The rate in which the average fitness of a community increases has been considered so far using models with pure demographic stochasticity; here we present some theoretical considerations and numerical results for the general case where environmental variations are taken into account. When the competition is pairwise, fitness fluctuations are shown to reduce the speed of evolution, while under global competition the speed increases due to environmental stochasticity.

SUPRATHERMAL SOLAR WIND ELECTRONS AND LANGMUIR TURBULENCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Sunjung; Yoon, Peter H.; Choe, G. S.

2016-09-01

The steady-state model recently put forth for the solar wind electron velocity distribution function during quiet time conditions, was originally composed of three population electrons (core, halo, and superhalo) with the core remaining nonresonant with any plasma waves while the halo and superhalo separately maintained steady-state resonance with whistler- and Langmuir-frequency range fluctuations, respectively. However, a recent paper demonstrates that whistler-range fluctuations in fact have no significant contribution. The present paper represents a consummation of the model in that a self-consistent model of the suprathermal electron population, which encompasses both the halo and the superhalo, is constructed solely on themore » basis of the Langmuir fluctuation spectrum. Numerical solutions to steady-state particle and wave kinetic equations are obtained on the basis of an initial trial electron distribution and Langmuir wave spectrum. Such a finding offers a self-consistent explanation for the observed steady-state electron distribution in the solar wind.« less

Insects in fluctuating thermal environments.

PubMed

Colinet, Hervé; Sinclair, Brent J; Vernon, Philippe; Renault, David

2015-01-07

All climate change scenarios predict an increase in both global temperature means and the magnitude of seasonal and diel temperature variation. The nonlinear relationship between temperature and biological processes means that fluctuating temperatures lead to physiological, life history, and ecological consequences for ectothermic insects that diverge from those predicted from constant temperatures. Fluctuating temperatures that remain within permissive temperature ranges generally improve performance. By contrast, those which extend to stressful temperatures may have either positive impacts, allowing repair of damage accrued during exposure to thermal extremes, or negative impacts from cumulative damage during successive exposures. We discuss the mechanisms underlying these differing effects. Fluctuating temperatures could be used to enhance or weaken insects in applied rearing programs, and any prediction of insect performance in the field-including models of climate change or population performance-must account for the effect of fluctuating temperatures.

Investigation of writing error in staggered heated-dot magnetic recording systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tipcharoen, W.; Warisarn, C.; Tongsomporn, D.; Karns, D.; Kovintavewat, P.

2017-05-01

To achieve an ultra-high storage capacity, heated-dot magnetic recording (HDMR) has been proposed, which heats a bit-patterned medium before recording data. Generally, an error during the HDMR writing process comes from several sources; however, we only investigate the effects of staggered island arrangement, island size fluctuation caused by imperfect fabrication, and main pole position fluctuation. Simulation results demonstrate that a writing error can be minimized by using a staggered array (hexagonal lattice) instead of a square array. Under the effect of main pole position fluctuation, the writing error is higher than the system without main pole position fluctuation. Finally, we found that the error percentage can drop below 10% when the island size is 8.5 nm and the standard deviation of the island size is 1 nm in the absence of main pole jitter.

The ecology of snowshoe hares in northern boreal forests [Chapter 6

Treesearch

Karen E. Hodges

2000-01-01

Snowshoe hares exhibit eight to 11 year population fluctuations across boreal North America, typically with an amplitude of 10 to 25 fold. These fluctuations are synchronous across the continent, with the most recent peak densities occurring in 1990 and 1991. The numeric cycle is driven by changes in survival and reproduction, with annual survival of adults...

Characterizing the dynamics of rubella relative to measles: the role of stochasticity

PubMed Central

Rozhnova, Ganna; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2013-01-01

Rubella is a completely immunizing and mild infection in children. Understanding its behaviour is of considerable public health importance because of congenital rubella syndrome, which results from infection with rubella during early pregnancy and may entail a variety of birth defects. The recurrent dynamics of rubella are relatively poorly resolved, and appear to show considerable diversity globally. Here, we investigate the behaviour of a stochastic seasonally forced susceptible–infected–recovered model to characterize the determinants of these dynamics and illustrate patterns by comparison with measles. We perform a systematic analysis of spectra of stochastic fluctuations around stable attractors of the corresponding deterministic model and compare them with spectra from full stochastic simulations in large populations. This approach allows us to quantify the effects of demographic stochasticity and to give a coherent picture of measles and rubella dynamics, explaining essential differences in the recurrent patterns exhibited by these diseases. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of vaccination and changing birth rates as well as the persistence of these two childhood infections. PMID:24026472

Drastic population fluctuations explain the rapid extinction of the passenger pigeon.

PubMed

Hung, Chih-Ming; Shaner, Pei-Jen L; Zink, Robert M; Liu, Wei-Chung; Chu, Te-Chin; Huang, Wen-San; Li, Shou-Hsien

2014-07-22

To assess the role of human disturbances in species' extinction requires an understanding of the species population history before human impact. The passenger pigeon was once the most abundant bird in the world, with a population size estimated at 3-5 billion in the 1800s; its abrupt extinction in 1914 raises the question of how such an abundant bird could have been driven to extinction in mere decades. Although human exploitation is often blamed, the role of natural population dynamics in the passenger pigeon's extinction remains unexplored. Applying high-throughput sequencing technologies to obtain sequences from most of the genome, we calculated that the passenger pigeon's effective population size throughout the last million years was persistently about 1/10,000 of the 1800's estimated number of individuals, a ratio 1,000-times lower than typically found. This result suggests that the passenger pigeon was not always super abundant but experienced dramatic population fluctuations, resembling those of an "outbreak" species. Ecological niche models supported inference of drastic changes in the extent of its breeding range over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. An estimate of acorn-based carrying capacity during the past 21,000 y showed great year-to-year variations. Based on our results, we hypothesize that ecological conditions that dramatically reduced population size under natural conditions could have interacted with human exploitation in causing the passenger pigeon's rapid demise. Our study illustrates that even species as abundant as the passenger pigeon can be vulnerable to human threats if they are subject to dramatic population fluctuations, and provides a new perspective on the greatest human-caused extinction in recorded history.

Modeling of Diffusion Based Correlations Between Heart Rate Modulations and Respiration Pattern

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-10-25

1 of 4 MODELING OF DIFFUSION BASED CORRELATIONS BETWEEN HEART RATE MODULATIONS AND RESPIRATION PATTERN R.Langer,(1) Y.Smorzik,(2) S.Akselrod,(1...generations of the bronchial tree. The second stage describes the oxygen diffusion process from the pulmonary gas in the alveoli into the pulmonary...patterns (FRC, TV, rate). Keywords – Modeling, Diffusion , Heart Rate fluctuations I. INTRODUCTION Under a whole-body management perception, the

Patterns of resting state connectivity in human primary visual cortical areas: a 7T fMRI study.

PubMed

Raemaekers, Mathijs; Schellekens, Wouter; van Wezel, Richard J A; Petridou, Natalia; Kristo, Gert; Ramsey, Nick F

2014-01-01

The nature and origin of fMRI resting state fluctuations and connectivity are still not fully known. More detailed knowledge on the relationship between resting state patterns and brain function may help to elucidate this matter. We therefore performed an in depth study of how resting state fluctuations map to the well known architecture of the visual system. We investigated resting state connectivity at both a fine and large scale within and across visual areas V1, V2 and V3 in ten human subjects using a 7Tesla scanner. We found evidence for several coexisting and overlapping connectivity structures at different spatial scales. At the fine-scale level we found enhanced connectivity between the same topographic locations in the fieldmaps of V1, V2 and V3, enhanced connectivity to the contralateral functional homologue, and to a lesser extent enhanced connectivity between iso-eccentric locations within the same visual area. However, by far the largest proportion of the resting state fluctuations occurred within large-scale bilateral networks. These large-scale networks mapped to some extent onto the architecture of the visual system and could thereby obscure fine-scale connectivity. In fact, most of the fine-scale connectivity only became apparent after the large-scale network fluctuations were filtered from the timeseries. We conclude that fMRI resting state fluctuations in the visual cortex may in fact be a composite signal of different overlapping sources. Isolating the different sources could enhance correlations between BOLD and electrophysiological correlates of resting state activity. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-Series Analysis of Supergranule Characterstics at Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Peter E.; Pesnell, W. Dean

2013-01-01

Sixty days of Doppler images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) / Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) investigation during the 1996 and 2008 solar minima have been analyzed to show that certain supergranule characteristics (size, size range, and horizontal velocity) exhibit fluctuations of three to five days. Cross-correlating parameters showed a good, positive correlation between supergranulation size and size range, and a moderate, negative correlation between size range and velocity. The size and velocity do exhibit a moderate, negative correlation, but with a small time lag (less than 12 hours). Supergranule sizes during five days of co-temporal data from MDI and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) / Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) exhibit similar fluctuations with a high level of correlation between them. This verifies the solar origin of the fluctuations, which cannot be caused by instrumental artifacts according to these observations. Similar fluctuations are also observed in data simulations that model the evolution of the MDI Doppler pattern over a 60-day period. Correlations between the supergranule size and size range time-series derived from the simulated data are similar to those seen in MDI data. A simple toy-model using cumulative, uncorrelated exponential growth and decay patterns at random emergence times produces a time-series similar to the data simulations. The qualitative similarities between the simulated and the observed time-series suggest that the fluctuations arise from stochastic processes occurring within the solar convection zone. This behavior, propagating to surface manifestations of supergranulation, may assist our understanding of magnetic-field-line advection, evolution, and interaction.

A functional connectivity comparison between attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and bipolar disorder in medication-naïve adolescents with mood fluctuation and attention problems.

PubMed

Son, Young Don; Han, Doug Hyun; Kim, Sun Mi; Min, Kyung Joon; Renshaw, Perry F

2017-05-30

In order to compare patterns of connectivity between affective and attention networks in adolescents with bipolar disorder (BD) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), we investigated differences in resting state functional connectivity (RSFC) between these populations. Study participants were medication-naïve adolescents (aged 13-18 years) with BD (N=22) or ADHD (N=25) and age- and sex-matched healthy adolescents (healthy controls [HC]) (N=22). Forty-seven adolescents with mood fluctuation and attention problems showed increased functional correlation (FC) between two pairs of regions within the affective network (AFN), compared to 22 HC: the left orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) to the left thalamus and the left OFC to the right thalamus. In post-hoc testing, adolescents with BD showed increased FC between two pairs of regions compared to ADHD: the right amygdala to the left temporoparietal junction (TPJ) and the right amygdala to the right TPJ. Adolescents with BD showed increased FC within the attention network (ATN) as well as increased FC between the ATN and the AFN, while those with ADHD showed decreased FC within the ATN. The current suggests that these features could be used as biomarkers for differentiating BD from ADHD in adolescents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metabolic rate and climatic fluctuations shape continental wide pattern of genetic divergence and biodiversity in fishes.

PubMed

April, Julien; Hanner, Robert H; Mayden, Richard L; Bernatchez, Louis

2013-01-01

Taxonomically exhaustive and continent wide patterns of genetic divergence within and between species have rarely been described and the underlying evolutionary causes shaping biodiversity distribution remain contentious. Here, we show that geographic patterns of intraspecific and interspecific genetic divergence among nearly all of the North American freshwater fish species (>750 species) support a dual role involving both the late Pliocene-Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and metabolic rate in determining latitudinal gradients of genetic divergence and very likely influencing speciation rates. Results indicate that the recurrent glacial cycles caused global reduction in intraspecific diversity, interspecific genetic divergence, and species richness at higher latitudes. At the opposite, longer geographic isolation, higher metabolic rate increasing substitution rate and possibly the rapid accumulation of genetic incompatibilities, led to an increasing biodiversity towards lower latitudes. This indicates that both intrinsic and extrinsic factors similarly affect micro and macro evolutionary processes shaping global patterns of biodiversity distribution. These results also indicate that factors favouring allopatric speciation are the main drivers underlying the diversification of North American freshwater fishes.

Metabolic Rate and Climatic Fluctuations Shape Continental Wide Pattern of Genetic Divergence and Biodiversity in Fishes

PubMed Central

April, Julien; Hanner, Robert H.; Mayden, Richard L.; Bernatchez, Louis

2013-01-01

Taxonomically exhaustive and continent wide patterns of genetic divergence within and between species have rarely been described and the underlying evolutionary causes shaping biodiversity distribution remain contentious. Here, we show that geographic patterns of intraspecific and interspecific genetic divergence among nearly all of the North American freshwater fish species (>750 species) support a dual role involving both the late Pliocene-Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and metabolic rate in determining latitudinal gradients of genetic divergence and very likely influencing speciation rates. Results indicate that the recurrent glacial cycles caused global reduction in intraspecific diversity, interspecific genetic divergence, and species richness at higher latitudes. At the opposite, longer geographic isolation, higher metabolic rate increasing substitution rate and possibly the rapid accumulation of genetic incompatibilities, led to an increasing biodiversity towards lower latitudes. This indicates that both intrinsic and extrinsic factors similarly affect micro and macro evolutionary processes shaping global patterns of biodiversity distribution. These results also indicate that factors favouring allopatric speciation are the main drivers underlying the diversification of North American freshwater fishes. PMID:23922969

Carbon Metabolism in Two Species of Pereskia (Cactaceae) 1

PubMed Central

Rayder, Lisa; Ting, Irwin P.

1981-01-01

The Pereskia are morphologically primitive, leafed members of the Cactaceae. Gas exchange characteristics using a dual isotope porometer to monitor 14CO2 and tritiated water uptake, diurnal malic acid fluctuations, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase, and malate dehydrogenase activities were examined in two species of the genus Pereskia, Pereskia grandifolia and Pereskia aculeata. Investigations were done on well watered (control) and water-stressed plants. Nonstressed plants showed a CO2 uptake pattern indicating C3 carbon metabolism. However, diurnal fluctuations in titratable acidity were observed similar to Crassulacean acid metabolism. Plants exposed to 10 days of water stress exhibited stomatal opening only during an early morning period. Titratable acidity, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase activity, and malate dehydrogenase activity fluctuations were magnified in the stressed plants, but showed the same diurnal pattern as controls. Water stress causes these cacti to shift to an internal CO2 recycling (“idling”) that has all attributes of Crassulacean acid metabolism except nocturnal stomata opening and CO2 uptake. The consequences of this shift, which has been observed in other succulents, are unknown, and some possibilities are suggested. PMID:16661857

Water table depth fluctuations during ENSO phenomenon on different tropical peat swamp forest land covers in Katingan, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossita, A.; Witono, A.; Darusman, T.; Lestari, D. P.; Risdiyanto, I.

2018-03-01

As it is the main role to maintain hydrological function, peatland has been a limelight since drainage construction for agriculture evolved. Drainage construction will decrease water table depth (WTD) and result in CO2 emission release to the atmosphere. Regardless of human intervention, WTD fluctuations can be affected by seasonal climate and climate variability, foremost El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to determine the correlation between rainfall in Katingan and ENSO index, analyze the pattern of WTD fluctuation of open area and forest area in 2015 (during very strong El Niño) and 2016 (during weak La Niña), calculate the WTD trendline slope during the dry season, and rainfall and WTD correlation. The result showed that open area has a sharper slope of decreasing or increasing WTD when entering the dry, compared to the forest area. Also, it is found that very strong El Niño in 2015 generated a pattern of more extreme decreasing WTD during the dry season than weak La Niña in 2016.

Mood Fluctuation and Psychobiological Instability: The Same Core Functions Are Disrupted by Novel Psychoactive Substances and Established Recreational Drugs

PubMed Central

Parrott, Andrew C.

2018-01-01

Many novel psychoactive substances (NPS) have entered the recreational drug scene in recent years, yet the problems they cause are similar to those found with established drugs. This article will debate the psychobiological effects of these newer and more traditional substances. It will show how they disrupt the same core psychobiological functions, so damaging well-being in similar ways. Every psychoactive drug causes mood states to fluctuate. Users feel better on-drug, then feel worse off-drug. The strength of these mood fluctuations is closely related to their addiction potential. Cyclical changes can occur with many other core psychobiological functions, such as information processing and psychomotor speed. Hence the list of drug-related impairments can include: homeostatic imbalance, HPA axis disruption, increased stress, altered sleep patterns, neurohormonal changes, modified brain rhythms, neurocognitive impairments, and greater psychiatric vulnerability. Similar patterns of deficit are found with older drugs such as cocaine, nicotine and cannabis, and newer substances such as 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), mephedrone and spice. All psychoactive drugs damage human well-being through similar basic neuropsychobiological mechanisms. PMID:29533974

Mapping cell-specific functional connections in the mouse brain using ChR2-evoked hemodynamics (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Adam Q.; Kraft, Andrew; Baxter, Grant A.; Bruchas, Michael; Lee, Jin-Moo; Culver, Joseph P.

2017-02-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has transformed our understanding of the brain's functional organization. However, mapping subunits of a functional network using hemoglobin alone presents several disadvantages. Evoked and spontaneous hemodynamic fluctuations reflect ensemble activity from several populations of neurons making it difficult to discern excitatory vs inhibitory network activity. Still, blood-based methods of brain mapping remain powerful because hemoglobin provides endogenous contrast in all mammalian brains. To add greater specificity to hemoglobin assays, we integrated optical intrinsic signal(OIS) imaging with optogenetic stimulation to create an Opto-OIS mapping tool that combines the cell-specificity of optogenetics with label-free, hemoglobin imaging. Before mapping, titrated photostimuli determined which stimulus parameters elicited linear hemodynamic responses in the cortex. Optimized stimuli were then scanned over the left hemisphere to create a set of optogenetically-defined effective connectivity (Opto-EC) maps. For many sites investigated, Opto-EC maps exhibited higher spatial specificity than those determined using spontaneous hemodynamic fluctuations. For example, resting-state functional connectivity (RS-FC) patterns exhibited widespread ipsilateral connectivity while Opto-EC maps contained distinct short- and long-range constellations of ipsilateral connectivity. Further, RS-FC maps were usually symmetric about midline while Opto-EC maps displayed more heterogeneous contralateral homotopic connectivity. Both Opto-EC and RS-FC patterns were compared to mouse connectivity data from the Allen Institute. Unlike RS-FC maps, Thy1-based maps collected in awake, behaving mice closely recapitulated the connectivity structure derived using ex vivo anatomical tracer methods. Opto-OIS mapping could be a powerful tool for understanding cellular and molecular contributions to network dynamics and processing in the mouse brain.

Dynamic response and transfer function of social systems: A neuro-inspired model of collective human activity patterns.

PubMed

Lymperopoulos, Ilias N

2017-10-01

The interaction of social networks with the external environment gives rise to non-stationary activity patterns reflecting the temporal structure and strength of exogenous influences that drive social dynamical processes far from an equilibrium state. Following a neuro-inspired approach, based on the dynamics of a passive neuronal membrane, and the firing rate dynamics of single neurons and neuronal populations, we build a state-of-the-art model of the collective social response to exogenous interventions. In this regard, we analyze online activity patterns with a view to determining the transfer function of social systems, that is, the dynamic relationship between external influences and the resulting activity. To this end, first we estimate the impulse response (Green's function) of collective activity, and then we show that the convolution of the impulse response with a time-varying external influence field accurately reproduces empirical activity patterns. To capture the dynamics of collective activity when the generating process is in a state of statistical equilibrium, we incorporate into the model a noisy input convolved with the impulse response function, thus precisely reproducing the fluctuations of stationary collective activity around a resting value. The outstanding goodness-of-fit of the model results to empirical observations, indicates that the model explains human activity patterns generated by time-dependent external influences in various socio-economic contexts. The proposed model can be used for inferring the temporal structure and strength of external influences, as well as the inertia of collective social activity. Furthermore, it can potentially predict social activity patterns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DataHigh: Graphical user interface for visualizing and interacting with high-dimensional neural activity

PubMed Central

Cowley, Benjamin R.; Kaufman, Matthew T.; Butler, Zachary S.; Churchland, Mark M.; Ryu, Stephen I.; Shenoy, Krishna V.; Yu, Byron M.

2014-01-01

Objective Analyzing and interpreting the activity of a heterogeneous population of neurons can be challenging, especially as the number of neurons, experimental trials, and experimental conditions increases. One approach is to extract a set of latent variables that succinctly captures the prominent co-fluctuation patterns across the neural population. A key problem is that the number of latent variables needed to adequately describe the population activity is often greater than three, thereby preventing direct visualization of the latent space. By visualizing a small number of 2-d projections of the latent space or each latent variable individually, it is easy to miss salient features of the population activity. Approach To address this limitation, we developed a Matlab graphical user interface (called DataHigh) that allows the user to quickly and smoothly navigate through a continuum of different 2-d projections of the latent space. We also implemented a suite of additional visualization tools (including playing out population activity timecourses as a movie and displaying summary statistics, such as covariance ellipses and average timecourses) and an optional tool for performing dimensionality reduction. Main results To demonstrate the utility and versatility of DataHigh, we used it to analyze single-trial spike count and single-trial timecourse population activity recorded using a multi-electrode array, as well as trial-averaged population activity recorded using single electrodes. Significance DataHigh was developed to fulfill a need for visualization in exploratory neural data analysis, which can provide intuition that is critical for building scientific hypotheses and models of population activity. PMID:24216250

DataHigh: graphical user interface for visualizing and interacting with high-dimensional neural activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowley, Benjamin R.; Kaufman, Matthew T.; Butler, Zachary S.; Churchland, Mark M.; Ryu, Stephen I.; Shenoy, Krishna V.; Yu, Byron M.

2013-12-01

Objective. Analyzing and interpreting the activity of a heterogeneous population of neurons can be challenging, especially as the number of neurons, experimental trials, and experimental conditions increases. One approach is to extract a set of latent variables that succinctly captures the prominent co-fluctuation patterns across the neural population. A key problem is that the number of latent variables needed to adequately describe the population activity is often greater than 3, thereby preventing direct visualization of the latent space. By visualizing a small number of 2-d projections of the latent space or each latent variable individually, it is easy to miss salient features of the population activity. Approach. To address this limitation, we developed a Matlab graphical user interface (called DataHigh) that allows the user to quickly and smoothly navigate through a continuum of different 2-d projections of the latent space. We also implemented a suite of additional visualization tools (including playing out population activity timecourses as a movie and displaying summary statistics, such as covariance ellipses and average timecourses) and an optional tool for performing dimensionality reduction. Main results. To demonstrate the utility and versatility of DataHigh, we used it to analyze single-trial spike count and single-trial timecourse population activity recorded using a multi-electrode array, as well as trial-averaged population activity recorded using single electrodes. Significance. DataHigh was developed to fulfil a need for visualization in exploratory neural data analysis, which can provide intuition that is critical for building scientific hypotheses and models of population activity.

DataHigh: graphical user interface for visualizing and interacting with high-dimensional neural activity.

PubMed

Cowley, Benjamin R; Kaufman, Matthew T; Butler, Zachary S; Churchland, Mark M; Ryu, Stephen I; Shenoy, Krishna V; Yu, Byron M

2013-12-01

Analyzing and interpreting the activity of a heterogeneous population of neurons can be challenging, especially as the number of neurons, experimental trials, and experimental conditions increases. One approach is to extract a set of latent variables that succinctly captures the prominent co-fluctuation patterns across the neural population. A key problem is that the number of latent variables needed to adequately describe the population activity is often greater than 3, thereby preventing direct visualization of the latent space. By visualizing a small number of 2-d projections of the latent space or each latent variable individually, it is easy to miss salient features of the population activity. To address this limitation, we developed a Matlab graphical user interface (called DataHigh) that allows the user to quickly and smoothly navigate through a continuum of different 2-d projections of the latent space. We also implemented a suite of additional visualization tools (including playing out population activity timecourses as a movie and displaying summary statistics, such as covariance ellipses and average timecourses) and an optional tool for performing dimensionality reduction. To demonstrate the utility and versatility of DataHigh, we used it to analyze single-trial spike count and single-trial timecourse population activity recorded using a multi-electrode array, as well as trial-averaged population activity recorded using single electrodes. DataHigh was developed to fulfil a need for visualization in exploratory neural data analysis, which can provide intuition that is critical for building scientific hypotheses and models of population activity.

Comparative Genetic Structure and Demographic History in Endemic Galápagos Weevils

PubMed Central

Stepien, Courtney C.; Sijapati, Manisha; Roque Albelo, Lázaro

2012-01-01

The challenge of maintaining genetic diversity within populations can be exacerbated for island endemics if they display population dynamics and behavioral attributes that expose them to genetic drift without the benefits of gene flow. We assess patterns of the genetic structure and demographic history in 27 populations of 9 species of flightless endemic Galápagos weevils from 9 of the islands and 1 winged introduced close relative. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA reveals a significant population structure and moderately variable, though demographically stable, populations for lowland endemics (FST = 0.094–0.541; π: 0.014–0.042; Mismatch P = 0.003–0.026; and D(Tajima) = −0.601 to 1.203), in contrast to signals of past contractions and expansions in highland specialists on 2 islands (Mismatch P = 0.003–0.026 and D(Tajima) = −0.601 to 1.203). We interpret this series of variable and highly structured population groups as a system of long-established, independently founded island units, where structuring could be a signal of microallopatric differentiation due to patchy host plant distribution and poor dispersal abilities. We suggest that the severe reduction and subsequent increase of a suitably moist habitat that accompanied past climatic variation could have contributed to the observed population fluctuations in highland specialists. We propose the future exploration of hybridization between the introduced and highland endemic species on Santa Cruz, especially given the expansion of the introduced species into the highlands, the sensitivity to past climatic variation detected in highland populations, and the potentially threatened state of single-island endemics. PMID:22174444

Long-term patterns in Iberian hare population dynamics in a protected area (Doñana National Park) in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula: Effects of weather conditions and plant cover.

PubMed

Carro, Francisco; Soriguer, Ramón C

2017-01-01

The Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) is a widely distributed endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula. To improve our knowledge of its population dynamics, the relative abundance and population trends of the Iberian hare were studied in the autumns of 1995-2012 in a protected area (Doñana National Park) by spotlighting in 2 different habitats: marshland and ecotones. The average relative abundance was 0.38 hare/km (SD = 0.63) in the marshland and 3.6 hares/km (SD = 4.09) in ecotones. The Iberian hare population exhibited local interannual fluctuations and a negative population trend during the study period (1995-2012). The results suggest that its populations are in decline. The flooding of parts of the marshland in June, July and October favor hare abundance in the ecotone. Hare abundance in the marshland increases as the flooded surface area increases in October. These effects are more pronounced if the rains are early (October) and partially flood the marsh. By contrast, when marsh grasses and graminoids are very high and thick (as measured using the aerial herbaceous biomass [biomass marshland] as a proxy), the abundance of hares decreases dramatically as does the area of the marsh that is flooded (in November). © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The effects of Pleistocene climate change on biotic differentiation in a montane songbird clade from Wallacea.

PubMed

Ng, Nathaniel S R; Wilton, Peter R; Prawiradilaga, Dewi Malia; Tay, Ywee Chieh; Indrawan, Mochamad; Garg, Kritika M; Rheindt, Frank E

2017-09-01

The role of Pleistocene Ice Age in tropical diversification is poorly understood, especially in archipelagos, in which glaciation-induced sea level fluctuations may lead to complicated changes in land distribution. To assess how Pleistocene land bridges may have facilitated gene flow in tropical archipelagos, we investigated patterns of diversification in the rarely-collected rusty-bellied fantail Rhipidura teysmanni (Passeriformes: Rhipiduridae) complex from Wallacea using a combination of bioacoustic traits and whole-genome sequencing methods (dd-RADSeq). We report a biogeographic leapfrog pattern in the vocalizations of these birds, and uncover deep genomic divergence among island populations despite the presence of intermittent land connections between some. We demonstrate how rare instances of genetic introgression have affected the evolution of this species complex, and document the presence of double introgressive mitochondrial sweeps, highlighting the dangers of using only mitochondrial DNA in evolutionary research. By applying different tree inference approaches, we demonstrate how concatenation methods can give inaccurate results when investigating divergence in closely-related taxa. Our study highlights high levels of cryptic avian diversity in poorly-explored Wallacea, elucidates complex patterns of Pleistocene climate-mediated diversification in an elusive montane songbird, and suggests that Pleistocene land bridges may have accounted for limited connectivity among montane Wallacean biota. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neuronal encoding of object and distance information: a model simulation study on naturalistic optic flow processing

PubMed Central

Hennig, Patrick; Egelhaaf, Martin

2011-01-01

We developed a model of the input circuitry of the FD1 cell, an identified motion-sensitive interneuron in the blowfly's visual system. The model circuit successfully reproduces the FD1 cell's most conspicuous property: its larger responses to objects than to spatially extended patterns. The model circuit also mimics the time-dependent responses of FD1 to dynamically complex naturalistic stimuli, shaped by the blowfly's saccadic flight and gaze strategy: the FD1 responses are enhanced when, as a consequence of self-motion, a nearby object crosses the receptive field during intersaccadic intervals. Moreover, the model predicts that these object-induced responses are superimposed by pronounced pattern-dependent fluctuations during movements on virtual test flights in a three-dimensional environment with systematic modifications of the environmental patterns. Hence, the FD1 cell is predicted to detect not unambiguously objects defined by the spatial layout of the environment, but to be also sensitive to objects distinguished by textural features. These ambiguous detection abilities suggest an encoding of information about objects—irrespective of the features by which the objects are defined—by a population of cells, with the FD1 cell presumably playing a prominent role in such an ensemble. PMID:22461769

Phylogeography of Pinus armandii and Its Relatives: Heterogeneous Contributions of Geography and Climate Changes to the Genetic Differentiation and Diversification of Chinese White Pines

PubMed Central

Liu, Liu; Hao, Zhen-Zhen; Liu, Yan-Yan; Wei, Xiao-Xin; Cun, Yu-Zhi; Wang, Xiao-Quan

2014-01-01

Geographic barriers and Quaternary climate changes are two major forces driving the evolution, speciation, and genetic structuring of extant organisms. In this study, we used Pinus armandii and eleven other Asian white pines (subsection Strobus, subgenus Pinus) to explore the influences of geographic factors and Pleistocene climatic oscillations on species in South China, a region known to be centers of plant endemism and biodiversity hotspots. Range-wide patterns of genetic variation were investigated using chloroplast and mitochondrial DNA markers, with extensive sampling throughout the entire range of P. armandii. Both cpDNA and mtDNA revealed that P. armandii exhibits high levels of genetic diversity and significant population differentiation. Three geographically distinct subdivisions corresponding to the Qinling-Daba Mountains (QDM), Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains (HHM) and Yungui Plateau (YGP) were revealed in mainland China by cpDNA. Their break zone was located in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). A series of massive mountains, induced by the QTP uplift, imposed significant geographic barriers to genetic exchange. The disjunct distribution patterns of ancestral haplotypes suggest that a large continuous population of the white pines may have existed from southwest to subtropical China. Repeated range shifts in response to the Pleistocene glaciations led to the isolation and diversification of the subtropical species. The two Taiwanese white pines share a common ancestor with the species in mainland China and obtain their chloroplasts via long-distance pollen dispersal from North Asian pines. Distinct genetic patterns were detected in populations from the Qinling-Daba Mountains, Yungui Plateau, Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains, and subtropical China, indicating significant contributions of geographic factors to the genetic differentiation in white pines. Our study depicts a clear picture of the evolutionary history of Chinese white pines and highlights the heterogeneous contributions of geography and Pleistocene climatic fluctuations to the extremely high plant species diversity and endemism in South China. PMID:24465789

Integrating Paleodistribution Models and Phylogeography in the Grass-Cutting Ant Acromyrmex striatus (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Southern Lowlands of South America

PubMed Central

Cristiano, Maykon Passos; Clemes Cardoso, Danon; Fernandes-Salomão, Tânia Maria; Heinze, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Past climate changes often have influenced the present distribution and intraspecific genetic diversity of organisms. The objective of this study was to investigate the phylogeography and historical demography of populations of Acromyrmex striatus (Roger, 1863), a leaf-cutting ant species restricted to the open plains of South America. Additionally, we modeled the distribution of this species to predict its contemporary and historic habitat. From the partial sequences of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I of 128 A. striatus workers from 38 locations we estimated genetic diversity and inferred historical demography, divergence time, and population structure. The potential distribution areas of A. striatus for current and quaternary weather conditions were modeled using the maximum entropy algorithm. We identified a total of 58 haplotypes, divided into five main haplogroups. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed that the largest proportion of genetic variation is found among the groups of populations. Paleodistribution models suggest that the potential habitat of A. striatus may have decreased during the Last Interglacial Period (LIG) and expanded during the Last Maximum Glacial (LGM). Overall, the past potential distribution recovered by the model comprises the current potential distribution of the species. The general structuring pattern observed was consistent with isolation by distance, suggesting a balance between gene flow and drift. Analysis of historical demography showed that populations of A. striatus had remained constant throughout its evolutionary history. Although fluctuations in the area of their potential historic habitat occurred during quaternary climate changes, populations of A. striatus are strongly structured geographically. However, explicit barriers to gene flow have not been identified. These findings closely match those in Mycetophylax simplex, another ant species that in some areas occurs in sympatry with A. striatus. Ecophysiological traits of this species and isolation by distance may together have shaped the phylogeographic pattern. PMID:26734939

Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. Anmore » analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.« less

Extinction phase transitions in a model of ecological and evolutionary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barghathi, Hatem; Tackkett, Skye; Vojta, Thomas

2017-07-01

We study the non-equilibrium phase transition between survival and extinction of spatially extended biological populations using an agent-based model. We especially focus on the effects of global temporal fluctuations of the environmental conditions, i.e., temporal disorder. Using large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations of up to 3 × 107 organisms and 105 generations, we find the extinction transition in time-independent environments to be in the well-known directed percolation universality class. In contrast, temporal disorder leads to a highly unusual extinction transition characterized by logarithmically slow population decay and enormous fluctuations even for large populations. The simulations provide strong evidence for this transition to be of exotic infinite-noise type, as recently predicted by a renormalization group theory. The transition is accompanied by temporal Griffiths phases featuring a power-law dependence of the life time on the population size.

Cooperation Dilemma in Finite Populations under Fluctuating Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assaf, Michael; Mobilia, Mauro; Roberts, Elijah

2013-12-01

We present a novel approach allowing the study of rare events like fixation under fluctuating environments, modeled as extrinsic noise, in evolutionary processes characterized by the dominance of one species. Our treatment consists of mapping the system onto an auxiliary model, exhibiting metastable species coexistence, that can be analyzed semiclassically. This approach enables us to study the interplay between extrinsic and demographic noise on the statistics of interest. We illustrate our theory by considering the paradigmatic prisoner’s dilemma game, whose evolution is described by the probability that cooperators fixate the population and replace all defectors. We analytically and numerically demonstrate that extrinsic noise may drastically enhance the cooperation fixation probability and even change its functional dependence on the population size. These results, which generalize earlier works in population genetics, indicate that extrinsic noise may help sustain and promote a much higher level of cooperation than static settings.

Assessment of long-range correlation in animal behavior time series: The temporal pattern of locomotor activity of Japanese quail (Coturnix coturnix) and mosquito larva (Culex quinquefasciatus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kembro, Jackelyn M.; Flesia, Ana Georgina; Gleiser, Raquel M.; Perillo, María A.; Marin, Raul H.

2013-12-01

Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) is a method that has been frequently used to determine the presence of long-range correlations in human and animal behaviors. However, according to previous authors using statistical model systems, in order to correctly use DFA different aspects should be taken into account such as: (1) the establishment by hypothesis testing of the absence of short term correlation, (2) an accurate estimation of a straight line in the log-log plot of the fluctuation function, (3) the elimination of artificial crossovers in the fluctuation function, and (4) the length of the time series. Taking into consideration these factors, herein we evaluated the presence of long-range correlation in the temporal pattern of locomotor activity of Japanese quail (Coturnix coturnix) and mosquito larva (Culex quinquefasciatus). In our study, modeling the data with the general autoregressive integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model, we rejected the hypothesis of short-range correlations (d=0) in all cases. We also observed that DFA was able to distinguish between the artificial crossover observed in the temporal pattern of locomotion of Japanese quail and the crossovers in the correlation behavior observed in mosquito larvae locomotion. Although the test duration can slightly influence the parameter estimation, no qualitative differences were observed between different test durations.

Simulated shift work in rats perturbs multiscale regulation of locomotor activity

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Wan-Hsin; Escobar, Carolina; Yugay, Tatiana; Lo, Men-Tzung; Pittman-Polletta, Benjamin; Salgado-Delgado, Roberto; Scheer, Frank A. J. L.; Shea, Steven A.; Buijs, Ruud M.; Hu, Kun

2014-01-01

Motor activity possesses a multiscale regulation that is characterized by fractal activity fluctuations with similar structure across a wide range of timescales spanning minutes to hours. Fractal activity patterns are disturbed in animals after ablating the master circadian pacemaker (suprachiasmatic nucleus, SCN) and in humans with SCN dysfunction as occurs with aging and in dementia, suggesting the crucial role of the circadian system in the multiscale activity regulation. We hypothesized that the normal synchronization between behavioural cycles and the SCN-generated circadian rhythms is required for multiscale activity regulation. To test the hypothesis, we studied activity fluctuations of rats in a simulated shift work protocol that was designed to force animals to be active during the habitual resting phase of the circadian/daily cycle. We found that these animals had gradually decreased mean activity level and reduced 24-h activity rhythm amplitude, indicating disturbed circadian and behavioural cycles. Moreover, these animals had disrupted fractal activity patterns as characterized by more random activity fluctuations at multiple timescales from 4 to 12 h. Intriguingly, these activity disturbances exacerbated when the shift work schedule lasted longer and persisted even in the normal days (without forced activity) following the shift work. The disrupted circadian and fractal patterns resemble those of SCN-lesioned animals and of human patients with dementia, suggesting a detrimental impact of shift work on multiscale activity regulation. PMID:24829282

Forces and mechanical energy fluctuations during diagonal stride roller skiing; running on wheels?

PubMed

Kehler, Alyse L; Hajkova, Eliska; Holmberg, Hans-Christer; Kram, Rodger

2014-11-01

Mechanical energy can be conserved during terrestrial locomotion in two ways: the inverted pendulum mechanism for walking and the spring-mass mechanism for running. Here, we investigated whether diagonal stride cross-country roller skiing (DIA) utilizes similar mechanisms. Based on previous studies, we hypothesized that running and DIA would share similar phase relationships and magnitudes of kinetic energy (KE), and gravitational potential energy (GPE) fluctuations, indicating elastic energy storage and return, as if roller skiing is like 'running on wheels'. Experienced skiers (N=9) walked and ran at 1.25 and 3 m s(-1), respectively, and roller skied with DIA at both speeds on a level dual-belt treadmill that recorded perpendicular and parallel forces. We calculated the KE and GPE of the center of mass from the force recordings. As expected, the KE and GPE fluctuated with an out-of-phase pattern during walking and an in-phase pattern during running. Unlike walking, during DIA, the KE and GPE fluctuations were in phase, as they are in running. However, during the glide phase, KE was dissipated as frictional heat and could not be stored elastically in the tendons, as in running. Elastic energy storage and return epitomize running and thus we reject our hypothesis. Diagonal stride cross-country skiing is a biomechanically unique movement that only superficially resembles walking or running. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Acoustic wave propagation and intensity fluctuations in shallow water 2006 experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jing

Fluctuations of low frequency sound propagation in the presence of nonlinear internal waves during the Shallow Water 2006 experiment are analyzed. Acoustic waves and environmental data including on-board ship radar images were collected simultaneously before, during, and after a strong internal solitary wave packet passed through a source-receiver acoustic track. Analysis of the acoustic wave signals shows temporal intensity fluctuations. These fluctuations are affected by the passing internal wave and agrees well with the theory of the horizontal refraction of acoustic wave propagation in shallow water. The intensity focusing and defocusing that occurs in a fixed source-receiver configuration while internal wave packet approaches and passes the acoustic track is addressed in this thesis. Acoustic ray-mode theory is used to explain the modal evolution of broadband acoustic waves propagating in a shallow water waveguide in the presence of internal waves. Acoustic modal behavior is obtained from the data through modal decomposition algorithms applied to data collected by a vertical line array of hydrophones. Strong interference patterns are observed in the acoustic data, whose main cause is identified as the horizontal refraction referred to as the horizontal Lloyd mirror effect. To analyze this interference pattern, combined Parabolic Equation model and Vertical-mode horizontal-ray model are utilized. A semi-analytic formula for estimating the horizontal Lloyd mirror effect is developed.

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate and density-dependence on dispersal in a house sparrow metapopulation

PubMed Central

Pärn, Henrik; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Jensen, Henrik; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2012-01-01

Dispersal plays a key role in the response of populations to climate change and habitat fragmentation. Here, we use data from a long-term metapopulation study of a non-migratory bird, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), to examine the influence of increasing spring temperature and density-dependence on natal dispersal rates and how these relationships depend on spatial variation in habitat quality. The effects of spring temperature and population size on dispersal rate depended on the habitat quality. Dispersal rate increased with temperature and population size on poor-quality islands without farms, where house sparrows were more exposed to temporal fluctuations in weather conditions and food availability. By contrast, dispersal rate was independent of spring temperature and population size on high-quality islands with farms, where house sparrows had access to food and shelter all the year around. This illustrates large spatial heterogeneity within the metapopulation in how population density and environmental fluctuations affect the dispersal process. PMID:21613299

Spin-density fluctuations and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem in 3 d ferromagnetic metals

DOE PAGES

Wysocki, Alex L.; Valmispild, V. N.; Kutepov, A.; ...

2017-11-15

Spatial and time scales of spin-density fluctuations (SDFs) were analyzed in 3d ferromagnets using ab initio linear-response calculations of complete wave-vector and energy dependence of the dynamic spin susceptibility tensor. We demonstrate that SDFs are spread continuously over the entire Brillouin zone and while the majority of them reside within the 3d bandwidth, a significant amount comes from much higher energies. A validity of the adiabatic approximation in spin dynamics is discussed. The SDF spectrum is shown to have two main constituents: a minor low-energy spin-wave contribution and a much larger high-energy component from more localized excitations. Furthermore, using themore » fluctuation-dissipation theorem, the on-site spin correlator and the related effective fluctuating moment were properly evaluated and their universal dependence on the 3d band population is further discussed.« less

Spin-density fluctuations and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem in 3 d ferromagnetic metals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wysocki, Alex L.; Valmispild, V. N.; Kutepov, A.

Spatial and time scales of spin-density fluctuations (SDFs) were analyzed in 3d ferromagnets using ab initio linear-response calculations of complete wave-vector and energy dependence of the dynamic spin susceptibility tensor. We demonstrate that SDFs are spread continuously over the entire Brillouin zone and while the majority of them reside within the 3d bandwidth, a significant amount comes from much higher energies. A validity of the adiabatic approximation in spin dynamics is discussed. The SDF spectrum is shown to have two main constituents: a minor low-energy spin-wave contribution and a much larger high-energy component from more localized excitations. Furthermore, using themore » fluctuation-dissipation theorem, the on-site spin correlator and the related effective fluctuating moment were properly evaluated and their universal dependence on the 3d band population is further discussed.« less

Stochastic hybrid systems for studying biochemical processes.

PubMed

Singh, Abhyudai; Hespanha, João P

2010-11-13

Many protein and mRNA species occur at low molecular counts within cells, and hence are subject to large stochastic fluctuations in copy numbers over time. Development of computationally tractable frameworks for modelling stochastic fluctuations in population counts is essential to understand how noise at the cellular level affects biological function and phenotype. We show that stochastic hybrid systems (SHSs) provide a convenient framework for modelling the time evolution of population counts of different chemical species involved in a set of biochemical reactions. We illustrate recently developed techniques that allow fast computations of the statistical moments of the population count, without having to run computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations of the biochemical reactions. Finally, we review different examples from the literature that illustrate the benefits of using SHSs for modelling biochemical processes.

Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Booth, Robert K.; Gray, Stephen T.

2009-01-01

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, S.T.; Betancourt, J.L.; Booth, R.K.; Gray, S.T.

2009-01-01

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Simulating Society Transitions: Standstill, Collapse and Growth in an Evolving Network Model

PubMed Central

Xu, Guanghua; Yang, Junjie; Li, Guoqing

2013-01-01

We developed a model society composed of various occupations that interact with each other and the environment, with the capability of simulating three widely recognized societal transition patterns: standstill, collapse and growth, which are important compositions of society evolving dynamics. Each occupation is equipped with a number of inhabitants that may randomly flow to other occupations, during which process new occupations may be created and then interact with existing ones. Total population of society is associated with productivity, which is determined by the structure and volume of the society. We ran the model under scenarios such as parasitism, environment fluctuation and invasion, which correspond to different driving forces of societal transition, and obtained reasonable simulation results. This work adds to our understanding of societal evolving dynamics as well as provides theoretical clues to sustainable development. PMID:24086530

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

PubMed Central

Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Booth, Robert K.; Gray, Stephen T.

2009-01-01

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics. PMID:19805104

The effect of Kingston Harbour outflow on the zooplankton populations of Hellshire, south-east coast, Jamaica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindo, Mona K.

1991-06-01

Zooplankton sampling was conducted at 16 stations located at the mouth of Kingston Harbour and throughout the Hellshire area from November 1985 to March 1987. Parameters examined included total biomass, total numbers and numbers of numerically important zooplankton species. Maximum values were recorded west of the Harbour mouth (station 1) and these gradually decreased with distance from the Harbour especially at the 'offshore' stations, producing a gradient effect in this area. Mean biomass and abundance for the period sampled ranged from 14 g m -3 and 16 313 individuals m -3 at the western side of the Harbour mouth to 0·4 g m -3 and 172 individuals m -3 at Wreck Reef. Stations within the bays of Hellshire occasionally had values similar to those recorded at the mouth of Kingston Harbour and here there was less evidence of a gradual decline. Considerable monthly fluctuation occurred in these parameters but there was no discernible seasonal pattern. Copepods dominated the population at most stations and the sergestid Lucifer faxoni also proved an important member at the western Harbour mouth station.

Population growth and collapse in a multiagent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley.

PubMed

Axtell, Robert L; Epstein, Joshua M; Dean, Jeffrey S; Gumerman, George J; Swedlund, Alan C; Harburger, Jason; Chakravarty, Shubha; Hammond, Ross; Parker, Jon; Parker, Miles

2002-05-14

Long House Valley in the Black Mesa area of northeastern Arizona (U.S.) was inhabited by the Kayenta Anasazi from about 1800 before Christ to about anno Domini 1300. These people were prehistoric ancestors of the modern Pueblo cultures of the Colorado Plateau. Paleoenvironmental research based on alluvial geomorphology, palynology, and dendroclimatology permits accurate quantitative reconstruction of annual fluctuations in potential agricultural production (kg of maize per hectare). The archaeological record of Anasazi farming groups from anno Domini 200-1300 provides information on a millennium of sociocultural stasis, variability, change, and adaptation. We report on a multiagent computational model of this society that closely reproduces the main features of its actual history, including population ebb and flow, changing spatial settlement patterns, and eventual rapid decline. The agents in the model are monoagriculturalists, who decide both where to situate their fields as well as the location of their settlements. Nutritional needs constrain fertility. Agent heterogeneity, difficult to model mathematically, is demonstrated to be crucial to the high fidelity of the model.

Population growth and collapse in a multiagent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley

PubMed Central

Axtell, Robert L.; Epstein, Joshua M.; Dean, Jeffrey S.; Gumerman, George J.; Swedlund, Alan C.; Harburger, Jason; Chakravarty, Shubha; Hammond, Ross; Parker, Jon; Parker, Miles

2002-01-01

Long House Valley in the Black Mesa area of northeastern Arizona (U.S.) was inhabited by the Kayenta Anasazi from about 1800 before Christ to about anno Domini 1300. These people were prehistoric ancestors of the modern Pueblo cultures of the Colorado Plateau. Paleoenvironmental research based on alluvial geomorphology, palynology, and dendroclimatology permits accurate quantitative reconstruction of annual fluctuations in potential agricultural production (kg of maize per hectare). The archaeological record of Anasazi farming groups from anno Domini 200-1300 provides information on a millennium of sociocultural stasis, variability, change, and adaptation. We report on a multiagent computational model of this society that closely reproduces the main features of its actual history, including population ebb and flow, changing spatial settlement patterns, and eventual rapid decline. The agents in the model are monoagriculturalists, who decide both where to situate their fields as well as the location of their settlements. Nutritional needs constrain fertility. Agent heterogeneity, difficult to model mathematically, is demonstrated to be crucial to the high fidelity of the model. PMID:12011406

Between-year variation in population sex ratio increases with complexity of the breeding system in Hymenoptera.

PubMed

Kümmerli, Rolf; Keller, Laurent

2011-06-01

While adaptive adjustment of sex ratio in the function of colony kin structure and food availability commonly occurs in social Hymenoptera, long-term studies have revealed substantial unexplained between-year variation in sex ratio at the population level. In order to identify factors that contribute to increased between-year variation in population sex ratio, we conducted a comparative analysis across 47 Hymenoptera species differing in their breeding system. We found that between-year variation in population sex ratio steadily increased as one moved from solitary species, to primitively eusocial species, to single-queen eusocial species, to multiple-queen eusocial species. Specifically, between-year variation in population sex ratio was low (6.6% of total possible variation) in solitary species, which is consistent with the view that in solitary species, sex ratio can vary only in response to fluctuations in ecological factors such as food availability. In contrast, we found significantly higher (19.5%) between-year variation in population sex ratio in multiple-queen eusocial species, which supports the view that in these species, sex ratio can also fluctuate in response to temporal changes in social factors such as queen number and queen-worker control over sex ratio, as well as factors influencing caste determination. The simultaneous adjustment of sex ratio in response to temporal fluctuations in ecological and social factors seems to preclude the existence of a single sex ratio optimum. The absence of such an optimum may reflect an additional cost associated with the evolution of complex breeding systems in Hymenoptera societies.

Mössbauer spectroscopy study of magnetic fluctuations in superconducting RbGd2Fe4As4O2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Wang, Z. C.; Cao, G. H.; Zhang, J. M.; Zhang, B.; Wang, T.; Pang, H.; Li, F. S.; Li, Z. W.

2018-05-01

57Fe Mössbauer spectra were measured at different temperatures between 5.9 K and 300 K on the recently discovered self-doped superconducting RbGd2Fe4As4O2 with Tc as high as 35 K. Singlet pattern was observed down to the lowest temperature measured in this work, indicating the absence of static magnetic order on the Fe site. The intermediate isomer shift in comparison with that of the samples RbFe2As2 and GdFeAsO confirms the self doping induced local electronic structure change. Surprisingly, we observe two magnetic fluctuation induced spectral broadenings below ∼ 15 K and ∼ 100 K which are believed to be originated from the transferred magnetic fluctuations of the Gd3+ moments and that of the magnetic fluctuations of the Fe atoms, respectively.

Molecular Rayleigh Scattering Diagnostic for Dynamic Temperature, Velocity, and Density Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mielke, Amy R.; Elam, Kristie A.; Sung, Chi-Jen

2006-01-01

A molecular Rayleigh scattering technique is developed to measure dynamic gas temperature, velocity, and density in unseeded turbulent flows at sampling rates up to 16 kHz. A high power CW laser beam is focused at a point in an air jet plume and Rayleigh scattered light is collected and spectrally resolved. The spectrum of the light, which contains information about the temperature and velocity of the flow, is analyzed using a Fabry-Perot interferometer. The circular interference fringe pattern is divided into four concentric regions and sampled at 1 and 16 kHz using photon counting electronics. Monitoring the relative change in intensity within each region allows for measurement of gas temperature and velocity. Independently monitoring the total scattered light intensity provides a measure of gas density. A low speed heated jet is used to validate the measurement of temperature fluctuations and an acoustically excited nozzle flow is studied to validate velocity fluctuation measurements. Power spectral density calculations of the property fluctuations, as well as mean and fluctuating quantities are presented. Temperature fluctuation results are compared with constant current anemometry measurements and velocity fluctuation results are compared with constant temperature anemometry measurements at the same locations.

Fractal scaling in bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) echolocation: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perisho, Shaun T.; Kelty-Stephen, Damian G.; Hajnal, Alen; Houser, Dorian; Kuczaj, Stan A., II

2016-02-01

Fractal scaling patterns, which entail a power-law relationship between magnitude of fluctuations in a variable and the scale at which the variable is measured, have been found in many aspects of human behavior. These findings have led to advances in behavioral models (e.g. providing empirical support for cascade-driven theories of cognition) and have had practical medical applications (e.g. providing new methods for early diagnosis of medical conditions). In the present paper, fractal analysis is used to investigate whether similar fractal scaling patterns exist in inter-click interval and peak-peak amplitude measurements of bottlenose dolphin click trains. Several echolocation recordings taken from two male bottlenose dolphins were analyzed using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and Higuchi's (1988) method for determination of fractal dimension. Both animals were found to exhibit fractal scaling patterns near what is consistent with persistent long range correlations. These findings suggest that recent advances in human cognition and medicine may have important parallel applications to echolocation as well.

Relationships between spur- and orchard-level fruit bearing in almond (Prunus dulcis).

PubMed

Tombesi, Sergio; Lampinen, Bruce D; Metcalf, Samuel; DeJong, Theodore M

2011-12-01

Almond is often considered to be a moderately alternate-bearing species but historical yield data typically do not exhibit clear patterns of alternate bearing at the orchard level, while research has indicated that spurs (the main fruit bearing unit in almond trees) rarely produce fruit in two subsequent years. The objective of the present work was to analyze the bearing behavior of almond trees at both the orchard level and the individual spur level over multiple years to explain this apparent paradox. The 10-year yield patterns of three almond cultivars grown at three different sites within California were analyzed for tendencies of alternate bearing at the orchard level. At the individual spur level, data on spur viability, and number of flowers and fruits per spur were collected on 2400 individually tagged spurs that were observed over 6 years to characterize bearing at that level. At the orchard level one cultivar (Nonpareil) did exhibit a tendency for alternate bearing at one site (Kern) but other cultivars and sites did not. The orchard and the individual trees in which the spur population study was conducted showed tendencies for alternate bearing but the spur population did not. Only a relatively small percentage of the total tagged spur population bore fruit in any given year and therefore while individual fruiting spurs exhibited a high level of non-bearing after fruiting the previous year the spurs that did produce fruit in any year generally did not constitute enough of the total spur population to exhibit alternate bearing at the whole population level. Our results suggest that annual bearing fluctuations in almond are probably mainly due to year-to-year variations of parameters affecting fruit set and that high rates of fruit set in a given year may involve a larger-than-normal percentage of a spur population in fruit bearing. This would limit the size of the spur population available for flowering in the subsequent year and could cause alternate year bearing. However, from historical records, this would appear to be the exception rather than a normal circumstance. Therefore, almond should not be considered to be a strictly alternate-bearing species.

Studies in Environment--Volume IV: Consumption Differentials and the Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olsen, Mary Beth; And Others

In this study, a mathematical model is used to tie both direct and indirect industrial pollution generated by fluctuations of the entire economy to behavioral patterns of the consuming public. The model studies consumer behavior patterns from three viewpoints: income of family, age of head of family, and regional location of family within the…

Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates.

PubMed

Linning, Shannon J; Andresen, Martin A; Brantingham, Paul J

2017-12-01

This study investigates whether crime patterns fluctuate periodically throughout the year using data containing different property crime types in two Canadian cities with differing climates. Using police report data, a series of ordinary least squares (OLS; Vancouver, British Columbia) and negative binomial (Ottawa, Ontario) regressions were employed to examine the corresponding temporal patterns of property crime in Vancouver (2003-2013) and Ottawa (2006-2008). Moreover, both aggregate and disaggregate models were run to examine whether different weather and temporal variables had a distinctive impact on particular offences. Overall, results suggest that cities that experience greater variations in weather throughout the year have more distinct increases of property offences in the summer months and that different climate variables affect certain crime types, thus advocating for disaggregate analysis in the future.

Bayesian Inference on the Effect of Density Dependence and Weather on a Guanaco Population from Chile

PubMed Central

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation. PMID:25514510

Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile.

PubMed

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.

Spreading of nonmotile bacteria on a hard agar plate: Comparison between agent-based and stochastic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Navdeep; Ghosh, Pushpita; Perlekar, Prasad

2017-11-01

We study spreading of a nonmotile bacteria colony on a hard agar plate by using agent-based and continuum models. We show that the spreading dynamics depends on the initial nutrient concentration, the motility, and the inherent demographic noise. Population fluctuations are inherent in an agent-based model, whereas for the continuum model we model them by using a stochastic Langevin equation. We show that the intrinsic population fluctuations coupled with nonlinear diffusivity lead to a transition from a diffusion limited aggregation type of morphology to an Eden-like morphology on decreasing the initial nutrient concentration.

Complexity and Intermittent Turbulence in Space Plasmas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Tom; Tam, Sunny W. Y.; Wu, Cheng-Chin

2004-01-01

Sporadic and localized interactions of coherent structures arising from plasma resonances can be the origin of "complexity" of the coexistence of non- propagating spatiotemporal fluctuations and propagating modes in space plasmas. Numerical simulation results are presented to demonstrate the intermittent character of the non-propagating fluctuations. The technique of the dynamic renormalization-group is introduced and applied to the study of scale invariance of such type of multiscale fluctuations. We also demonstrate that the particle interactions with the intermittent turbulence can lead to the efficient energization of the plasma populations. An example related to the ion acceleration processes in the auroral zone is provided.

Tracers of Stellar Mass-loss. II. Mid-IR Colors and Surface Brightness Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Lópezlira, Rosa A.

2018-04-01

I present integrated colors and surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes in the mid-infrared (IR), derived from stellar population synthesis models that include the effects of the dusty envelopes around thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) stars. The models are based on the Bruzual & Charlot CB* isochrones; they are single-burst, range in age from a few Myr to 14 Gyr, and comprise metallicities between Z = 0.0001 and Z = 0.04. I compare these models to mid-IR data of AGB stars and star clusters in the Magellanic Clouds, and study the effects of varying self-consistently the mass-loss rate, the stellar parameters, and the output spectra of the stars plus their dusty envelopes. I find that models with a higher than fiducial mass-loss rate are needed to fit the mid-IR colors of “extreme” single AGB stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud. Surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes are quite sensitive to metallicity for 4.5 μm and longer wavelengths at all stellar population ages, and powerful diagnostics of mass-loss rate in the TP-AGB for intermediate-age populations, between 100 Myr and 2–3 Gyr.

Conserved and narrow temperature limits in alpine insects: Thermal tolerance and supercooling points of the ice-crawlers, Grylloblatta (Insecta: Grylloblattodea: Grylloblattidae).

PubMed

Schoville, Sean D; Slatyer, Rachel A; Bergdahl, James C; Valdez, Glenda A

2015-07-01

For many terrestrial species, habitat associations and range size are dependent on physiological limits, which in turn may influence large-scale patterns of species diversity. The temperature range experienced by individuals is considered to shape the breadth of the thermal niche, with species occupying temporally and/or geographically stable climates tolerating a narrow temperature range. High-elevation environments experience large temperature fluctuations, with frequent periods below 0 °C, but Grylloblatta (Grylloblattodea: Grylloblattidae) occupy climatically stable microhabitats within this region. Here we test critical thermal limits and supercooling points for five Grylloblatta populations from across a large geographic area, to examine whether the stable microhabitats of this group are associated with a narrow thermal niche and assess their capacity to tolerate cold conditions. Thermal limits are highly conserved in Grylloblatta, despite substantial genetic divergence among populations spanning 1500 m elevation and being separated by over 500 km. Further, Grylloblatta show exceptionally narrow thermal limits compared to other insect taxa with little capacity to improve cold tolerance via plasticity. In contrast, upper thermal limits were significantly depressed by cold acclimation. Grylloblatta maintain coordinated movement until they freeze, and they die upon freezing. Convergence of the critical thermal minima, supercooling point and lower lethal limits point to adaptation to a cold but, importantly, constant thermal environment. These physiological data provide an explanation for the high endemism and patchy distribution of Grylloblatta, which relies on subterranean retreats to accommodate narrow thermal limits. These retreats are currently buffered from temperature fluctuations by snow cover, and a declining snowpack thus places Grylloblatta at risk of exposure to temperatures beyond its tolerance capacity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple Imputation of Groundwater Data to Evaluate Spatial and Temporal Anthropogenic Influences on Subsurface Water Fluxes in Los Angeles, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manago, K. F.; Hogue, T. S.; Hering, A. S.

2014-12-01

In the City of Los Angeles, groundwater accounts for 11% of the total water supply on average, and 30% during drought years. Due to ongoing drought in California, increased reliance on local water supply highlights the need for better understanding of regional groundwater dynamics and estimating sustainable groundwater supply. However, in an urban setting, such as Los Angeles, understanding or modeling groundwater levels is extremely complicated due to various anthropogenic influences such as groundwater pumping, artificial recharge, landscape irrigation, leaking infrastructure, seawater intrusion, and extensive impervious surfaces. This study analyzes anthropogenic effects on groundwater levels using groundwater monitoring well data from the County of Los Angeles Department of Public Works. The groundwater data is irregularly sampled with large gaps between samples, resulting in a sparsely populated dataset. A multiple imputation method is used to fill the missing data, allowing for multiple ensembles and improved error estimates. The filled data is interpolated to create spatial groundwater maps utilizing information from all wells. The groundwater data is evaluated at a monthly time step over the last several decades to analyze the effect of land cover and identify other influencing factors on groundwater levels spatially and temporally. Preliminary results show irrigated parks have the largest influence on groundwater fluctuations, resulting in large seasonal changes, exceeding changes in spreading grounds. It is assumed that these fluctuations are caused by watering practices required to sustain non-native vegetation. Conversely, high intensity urbanized areas resulted in muted groundwater fluctuations and behavior decoupling from climate patterns. Results provides improved understanding of anthropogenic effects on groundwater levels in addition to providing high quality datasets for validation of regional groundwater models.

Alterations in Neural Control of Constant Isometric Contraction with the Size of Error Feedback

PubMed Central

Hwang, Ing-Shiou; Lin, Yen-Ting; Huang, Wei-Min; Yang, Zong-Ru; Hu, Chia-Ling; Chen, Yi-Ching

2017-01-01

Discharge patterns from a population of motor units (MUs) were estimated with multi-channel surface electromyogram and signal processing techniques to investigate parametric differences in low-frequency force fluctuations, MU discharges, and force-discharge relation during static force-tracking with varying sizes of execution error presented via visual feedback. Fourteen healthy adults produced isometric force at 10% of maximal voluntary contraction through index abduction under three visual conditions that scaled execution errors with different amplification factors. Error-augmentation feedback that used a high amplification factor (HAF) to potentiate visualized error size resulted in higher sample entropy, mean frequency, ratio of high-frequency components, and spectral dispersion of force fluctuations than those of error-reducing feedback using a low amplification factor (LAF). In the HAF condition, MUs with relatively high recruitment thresholds in the dorsal interosseous muscle exhibited a larger coefficient of variation for inter-spike intervals and a greater spectral peak of the pooled MU coherence at 13–35 Hz than did those in the LAF condition. Manipulation of the size of error feedback altered the force-discharge relation, which was characterized with non-linear approaches such as mutual information and cross sample entropy. The association of force fluctuations and global discharge trace decreased with increasing error amplification factor. Our findings provide direct neurophysiological evidence that favors motor training using error-augmentation feedback. Amplification of the visualized error size of visual feedback could enrich force gradation strategies during static force-tracking, pertaining to selective increases in the discharge variability of higher-threshold MUs that receive greater common oscillatory inputs in the β-band. PMID:28125658

Independent oscillatory patterns determine performance fluctuations in children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

PubMed

Yordanova, Juliana; Albrecht, Björn; Uebel, Henrik; Kirov, Roumen; Banaschewski, Tobias; Rothenberger, Aribert; Kolev, Vasil

2011-06-01

The maintenance of stable goal-directed behaviour is a hallmark of conscious executive control in humans. Notably, both correct and error human actions may have a subconscious activation-based determination. One possible source of subconscious interference may be the default mode network that, in contrast to attentional network, manifests intrinsic oscillations at very low (<0.1 Hz) frequencies. In the present study, we analyse the time dynamics of performance accuracy to search for multisecond periodic fluctuations of error occurrence. Attentional lapses in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder are proposed to originate from interferences from intrinsically oscillating networks. Identifying periodic error fluctuations with a frequency<0.1 Hz in patients with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder would provide a behavioural evidence for such interferences. Performance was monitored during a visual flanker task in 92 children (7- to 16-year olds), 47 with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, combined type and 45 healthy controls. Using an original approach, the time distribution of error occurrence was analysed in the frequency and time-frequency domains in order to detect rhythmic periodicity. Major results demonstrate that in both patients and controls, error behaviour was characterized by multisecond rhythmic fluctuations with a period of ∼12 s, appearing with a delay after transition to task. Only in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, was there an additional 'pathological' oscillation of error generation, which determined periodic drops of performance accuracy each 20-30 s. Thus, in patients, periodic error fluctuations were modulated by two independent oscillatory patterns. The findings demonstrate that: (i) attentive behaviour of children is determined by multisecond regularities; and (ii) a unique additional periodicity guides performance fluctuations in patients. These observations may re-conceptualize the understanding of attentive behaviour beyond the executive top-down control and may reveal new origins of psychopathological behaviours in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

Spatial fluctuations in expression of the heterocyst differentiation regulatory gene hetR in Anabaena filaments.

PubMed

Corrales-Guerrero, Laura; Tal, Asaf; Arbel-Goren, Rinat; Mariscal, Vicente; Flores, Enrique; Herrero, Antonia; Stavans, Joel

2015-04-01

Under nitrogen deprivation, filaments of the cyanobacterium Anabaena undergo a process of development, resulting in a one-dimensional pattern of nitrogen-fixing heterocysts separated by about ten photosynthetic vegetative cells. Many aspects of gene expression before nitrogen deprivation and during the developmental process remain to be elucidated. Furthermore, the coupling of gene expression fluctuations between cells along a multicellular filament is unknown. We studied the statistics of fluctuations of gene expression of HetR, a transcription factor essential for heterocyst differentiation, both under steady-state growth in nitrogen-rich conditions and at different times following nitrogen deprivation, using a chromosomally-encoded translational hetR-gfp fusion. Statistical analysis of fluorescence at the individual cell level in wild-type and mutant filaments demonstrates that expression fluctuations of hetR in nearby cells are coupled, with a characteristic spatial range of circa two to three cells, setting the scale for cellular interactions along a filament. Correlations between cells predominantly arise from intercellular molecular transfer and less from cell division. Fluctuations after nitrogen step-down can build up on those under nitrogen-replete conditions. We found that under nitrogen-rich conditions, basal, steady-state expression of the HetR inhibitor PatS, cell-cell communication influenced by the septal protein SepJ and positive HetR auto-regulation are essential determinants of fluctuations in hetR expression and its distribution along filaments. A comparison between the expression of hetR-gfp under nitrogen-rich and nitrogen-poor conditions highlights the differences between the two HetR inhibitors PatS and HetN, as well as the differences in specificity between the septal proteins SepJ and FraC/FraD. Activation, inhibition and cell-cell communication lie at the heart of developmental processes. Our results show that proteins involved in these basic ingredients combine together in the presence of inevitable stochasticity in gene expression, to control the coupled fluctuations of gene expression that give rise to a one-dimensional developmental pattern in this organism.