Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. Methods: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. Conclusions: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 PMID:27337737

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Vink, Jan K; Horton, Radley M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A; Francis, Joe D; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects.

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Rabbit Populations through Reproduction

PubMed Central

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Conclusions/Significance Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects. PMID:23152836

Big Feet: Assessing the Current and Future Impact of Population Size on a Country's Ecological Footprint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogg, R. S.; Takaro, T.; Miller, C.; Hogg, E.; Anema, A.; Gislason, M.; Parkes, M.

2015-12-01

Background: Ecological footprints assess the land and water a population needs to procure its resources and handle its waste. Measures derived from these footprints look at a population's ecological overshoot rather than weighting the population to its footprint. The aim of this study was to examine the latter approach by determining what the current and future weighted world population, by income gradient, would be if everyone lived within the boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Methods: Country-specific ecological footprints and populations for 2007 were obtained from the Global Footprint Network (www.footprintnetwork.org); and projected populations were collected from US Census Bureau (www.census.gov). Footprint growth to 2050 was based on a business as usual approach developed by Kitzes et al. in Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2008). Weighted population estimates were derived by multiplying actual population by the ratio of the country's footprint to overall boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Results: The weighted global population increased by 2.4 billion people (37%) in 2007 based on our adjustment. High and middle-income country populations increased, by 242% and 10%, respectively, while low-income country populations decreased by 33%. The weighed global population in 2050 increased by 10.1 billion with the majority of this growth occurring in high-income countries -- 437% versus 67% and 9% respectively for medium and low-income countries. Conclusions: Our study showed that current and future global weighted demographic and ecological impact would be felt mainly in high-income countries even though actual population growth would occur mainly in low and middle-income countries.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

PubMed

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-10-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations

PubMed Central

Whitacre, James M.; Atamas, Sergei P.

2013-01-01

Trait diversity – the substrate for natural selection – is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy’s role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes. PMID:22910487

How have researchers studied multiracial populations? A content and methodological review of 20 years of research.

PubMed

Charmaraman, Linda; Woo, Meghan; Quach, Ashley; Erkut, Sumru

2014-07-01

The U.S. Census shows that the racial-ethnic makeup of over 9 million people (2.9% of the total population) who self-identified as multiracial is extremely diverse. Each multiracial subgroup has unique social and political histories that may lead to distinct societal perceptions, economic situations, and health outcomes. Despite the increasing academic and media interest in multiracial individuals, there are methodological and definitional challenges in studying the population, resulting in conflicting representations in the literature. This content and methods review of articles on multiracial populations provides a comprehensive understanding of which multiracial populations have been included in research and how they have been studied, both to recognize emerging research and to identify gaps for guiding future research on this complex but increasingly visible population. We examine 125 U.S.-based peer-reviewed journal articles published over the past 20 years (1990 to 2009) containing 133 separate studies focused on multiracial individuals, primarily from the fields of psychology, sociology, social work, education, and public health. Findings include (a) descriptive data regarding the sampling strategies, methodologies, and demographic characteristics of studies, including which multiracial subgroups are most studied, gender, age range, region of country, and socioeconomic status; (b) major thematic trends in research topics concerning multiracial populations; and (c) implications and recommendations for future studies.

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian K.; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-01-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future. PMID:28580275

Strategies for Development of Palliative Care From the Perspectives of General Population and Health Care Professionals: A Japanese Outreach Palliative Care Trial of Integrated Regional Model Study.

PubMed

Yoshida, Saran; Miyashita, Mitsunori; Morita, Tatsuya; Akizuki, Nobuya; Akiyama, Miki; Shirahige, Yutaka; Ichikawa, Takayuki; Eguchi, Kenji

2015-09-01

This study primarily aimed to identify future actions required to promote palliative care in Japan. The future actions regarded as effective by the general population were "improve physicians' skill in palliative care" (61%), "create a counseling center for cancer" (61%), and "improve nurses' skill in palliative care" (60%). In contrast, future actions regarded as effective by the health care professionals were "set up a Web site that provides information about cancer" (72%), "promote consultation with specialists in palliative care" (71%), and "open an outpatient department specializing in palliative care" (70%). The results suggest (1) development and maintenance of settings; (2) enhancement of palliative care education and training programs for health care providers; and (3) improvement in distributing information about cancer and regional palliative care resources to the general population. © The Author(s) 2014.

Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes.

PubMed

Hägg, Hanna Eriksson; Lyon, Steve W; Wällstedt, Teresia; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Claremar, Björn; Humborg, Christoph

2014-04-01

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

PubMed

Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

2014-03-01

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

Past, present, and future of a freshwater fish metapopulation in a threatened landscape.

PubMed

Vera-Escalona, Iván; Senthivasan, Shreeram; Habit, Evelyn; Ruzzante, Daniel E

2018-02-12

It is well documented that hydropower plants can affect the dynamics of fish populations through landscape alterations and the creation of new barriers. Less emphasis has been placed on the examination of the genetic consequences for fish populations of the construction of dams. The relatively few studies that focus on genetics often do not consider colonization history and even fewer tend to use this information for conservation purposes. As a case study, we used a 3-pronged approach to study the influence of historical processes, contemporary landscape features, and potential future anthropogenic changes in landscape on the genetic diversity of a fish metapopulation. Our goal was to identify the metapopulation's main attributes, detect priority areas for conservation, and assess the consequences of the construction of hydropower plants for the persistence of the metapopulation. We used microsatellite markers and coalescent approaches to examine historical colonization processes, traditional population genetics, and simulations of future populations under alternate scenarios of population size reduction and gene flow. Historical gene flow appeared to have declined relatively recently and contemporary populations appeared highly susceptible to changes in landscape. Gene flow is critical for population persistence. We found that hydropower plants could lead to a rapid reduction in number of alleles and to population extirpation 50-80 years after their construction. More generally, our 3-pronged approach for the analyses of empirical genetic data can provide policy makers with information on the potential impacts of landscape changes and thus lead to more robust conservation efforts. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Donald J.; Ribic, Christine; Donner, Deahn M.; Nelson, Mark D.; Bocetti, Carol I.; Deloria-Sheffield, Christie M.

2017-01-01

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001.To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme.Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines.Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Forecasting the burden of future postmenopausal hip fractures.

PubMed

Omsland, T K; Magnus, J H

2014-10-01

A growing elderly population is expected worldwide, and the rate of hip fractures is decisive for the future fracture burden. Significant declines in hip fracture rates in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK are required to counteract the impact of the ageing effects. This study aims to evaluate the consequences of the expected growth of the elderly population worldwide on the hip fracture burden using Norway as an example. Furthermore, we wanted to estimate the decline in hip fracture rates required to counteract the anticipated increase in the burden of hip fracture for Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. The burden of future postmenopausal hip fractures in Norway were estimated given (1) constant age-specific rates, (2) continued decline, and (3) different cohort scenarios. Based on population projection estimates and population age-specific hip fracture rates in women 65 years and older, we calculated the required declines in hip fracture rates needed to counteract the growing elderly populations in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. The level of age-specific hip fracture rates had a huge impact on the future hip fracture burden in Norway. Even if the hip fracture rates decline at the same speed, a 22 % increase in the burden of hip fractures can be expected by 2040. An annual decline in hip fracture rates of 1.1-2.2 % until 2040 is required to counteract the effects of the growing elderly population on the future burden of hip fractures in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. Hip fracture rates have a great impact on the burden of hip fractures. The rates will have to decline significantly to counteract the impact of a growing elderly population. A change in preventive strategies and further studies are warranted to identify the complex causes associated to hip fractures.

Changes in Urban Climate due to Future Land-Use Changes based on Population Changes in the Nagoya Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, S. A.; Hara, M.; Takahashi, H. G.; Ma, X.; Yoshikane, T.; Kimura, F.

2013-12-01

Severe hot weather in summer season becomes a big social problem in metropolitan areas, including the Nagoya region in Japan. Surface air temperature warming is projected in the future. Therefore, the reduction of surface air temperature is an urgent issue in the urban area. Although there are several studies dealing with the effects of global climate change and urbanization to the local climate in the future, these studies tend to ignore the future population changes. This study estimates future land-use scenarios associated with the multi-projections of future population and investigates the impacts of these scenarios on the surface temperature change. The Weather Research and Forecast model ver. 3.3.1 (hereafter, WRF) was used in this study. The horizontal resolutions were 20km, 4km, and 2km, for outer, middle, and inner domains, respectively. The results from the inner domain, covering the Nagoya region, were used for the analysis. The Noah land surface model and the single-layer urban canopy model were applied to calculate the land surface processes and urban surface processes, respectively. The initial and boundary conditions were given from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in August 2010. The urban area ratio used in the WRF model was calculated from the future land-use data provided by the S8 project. The land-use data was created as follows. (1) Three scenarios of population, namely, with high-fertility assumption and low-mortality assumption (POP-high), with medium-fertility assumption and medium-mortality assumption (POP-med), and with low-fertility assumption and high-mortality assumption (POP-low), are estimated using the method proposed by Ariga and Matsuhashi (2012). These scenarios are based on the future projections provided by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. (2) The future changes in urban area ratio were assumed to be proportional to the population change (Hanasaki et al., 2012). The averaged urban area ratio in the Nagoya region was 0.37 in 2010. The area ratios were projected to reach a peak in 2010 to 2020, and then to decrease in the future in all of scenarios. The urban heat island intensity in the Nagoya region is about 1.5°C in 2010. In contrast, the differences of surface temperature is -0.17°C, -0.21°C, and -0.30°C in POP-high, POP-med, and POP-low, from the current situation in 2010. These impacts correspond to the 10% to 20% of current urban heat island intensity. However, the changes in the efficiency of energy consumption were not considered. Considering that the future surface temperature change is projected to be about 1.2°C to 4°C in 2070, it is required to quantitatively evaluate future urban scenarios including the mitigation strategies for urban heat island such as the improvement of energy consumption, greening, and so on. Acknowledgments. This study was supported by the Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) Fund by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan and the Global Environment Research Fund (S-8) of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Branched-chain and aromatic amino acid profiles and diabetes risk in Chinese populations.

PubMed

Chen, Tianlu; Ni, Yan; Ma, Xiaojing; Bao, Yuqian; Liu, Jiajian; Huang, Fengjie; Hu, Cheng; Xie, Guoxiang; Zhao, Aihua; Jia, Weiping; Jia, Wei

2016-02-05

Recent studies revealed strong evidence that branched-chain and aromatic amino acids (BCAAs and AAAs) are closely associated with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in several Western countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential role of BCAAs and AAAs in predicting the diabetes development in Chinese populations. The serum levels of valine, leucine, isoleucine, tyrosine, and phenylalanine were measured in a longitudinal and a cross sectional studies with a total of 429 Chinese participants at different stages of diabetes development, using an ultra-performance liquid chromatography triple quadruple mass spectrometry platform. The alterations of the five AAs in Chinese populations are well in accordance with previous reports. Early elevation of the five AAs and their combined score was closely associated with future development of diabetes, suggesting an important role of these metabolites as early markers of diabetes. On the other hand, the five AAs were not as good as existing clinical markers in differentiating diabetic patients from their healthy counterparts. Our findings verified the close correlation of BCAAs and AAAs with insulin resistance and future development of diabetes in Chinese populations and highlighted the predictive value of these markers for future development of diabetes.

Branched-chain and aromatic amino acid profiles and diabetes risk in Chinese populations

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianlu; Ni, Yan; Ma, Xiaojing; Bao, Yuqian; Liu, Jiajian; Huang, Fengjie; Hu, Cheng; Xie, Guoxiang; Zhao, Aihua; Jia, Weiping; Jia, Wei

2016-01-01

Recent studies revealed strong evidence that branched-chain and aromatic amino acids (BCAAs and AAAs) are closely associated with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in several Western countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential role of BCAAs and AAAs in predicting the diabetes development in Chinese populations. The serum levels of valine, leucine, isoleucine, tyrosine, and phenylalanine were measured in a longitudinal and a cross sectional studies with a total of 429 Chinese participants at different stages of diabetes development, using an ultra-performance liquid chromatography triple quadruple mass spectrometry platform. The alterations of the five AAs in Chinese populations are well in accordance with previous reports. Early elevation of the five AAs and their combined score was closely associated with future development of diabetes, suggesting an important role of these metabolites as early markers of diabetes. On the other hand, the five AAs were not as good as existing clinical markers in differentiating diabetic patients from their healthy counterparts. Our findings verified the close correlation of BCAAs and AAAs with insulin resistance and future development of diabetes in Chinese populations and highlighted the predictive value of these markers for future development of diabetes. PMID:26846565

Identification of population substructure among Jews using STR markers and dependence on reference populations included.

PubMed

Listman, Jennifer B; Hasin, Deborah; Kranzler, Henry R; Malison, Robert T; Mutirangura, Apiwat; Sughondhabirom, Atapol; Aharonovich, Efrat; Spivak, Baruch; Gelernter, Joel

2010-06-14

Detecting population substructure is a critical issue for association studies of health behaviors and other traits. Whether inherent in the population or an artifact of marker choice, determining aspects of a population's genetic history as potential sources of substructure can aid in design of future genetic studies. Jewish populations, among which association studies are often conducted, have a known history of migrations. As a necessary step in understanding population structure to conduct valid association studies of health behaviors among Israeli Jews, we investigated genetic signatures of this history and quantified substructure to facilitate future investigations of these phenotypes in this population. Using 32 autosomal STR markers and the program STRUCTURE, we differentiated between Ashkenazi (AJ, N = 135) and non-Ashkenazi (NAJ, N = 226) Jewish populations in the form of Northern and Southern geographic genetic components (AJ north 73%, south 23%, NAJ north 33%, south 60%). The ability to detect substructure within these closely related populations using a small STR panel was contingent on including additional samples representing major continental populations in the analyses. Although clustering programs such as STRUCTURE are designed to assign proportions of ancestry to individuals without reference population information, when Jewish samples were analyzed in the absence of proxy parental populations, substructure within Jews was not detected. Generally, for samples with a given grandparental country of birth, STRUCTURE assignment values to Northern, Southern, African and Asian clusters agreed with mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal data from previous studies as well as historical records of migration and intermarriage.

Identification of population substructure among Jews using STR markers and dependence on reference populations included

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Detecting population substructure is a critical issue for association studies of health behaviors and other traits. Whether inherent in the population or an artifact of marker choice, determining aspects of a population's genetic history as potential sources of substructure can aid in design of future genetic studies. Jewish populations, among which association studies are often conducted, have a known history of migrations. As a necessary step in understanding population structure to conduct valid association studies of health behaviors among Israeli Jews, we investigated genetic signatures of this history and quantified substructure to facilitate future investigations of these phenotypes in this population. Results Using 32 autosomal STR markers and the program STRUCTURE, we differentiated between Ashkenazi (AJ, N = 135) and non-Ashkenazi (NAJ, N = 226) Jewish populations in the form of Northern and Southern geographic genetic components (AJ north 73%, south 23%, NAJ north 33%, south 60%). The ability to detect substructure within these closely related populations using a small STR panel was contingent on including additional samples representing major continental populations in the analyses. Conclusions Although clustering programs such as STRUCTURE are designed to assign proportions of ancestry to individuals without reference population information, when Jewish samples were analyzed in the absence of proxy parental populations, substructure within Jews was not detected. Generally, for samples with a given grandparental country of birth, STRUCTURE assignment values to Northern, Southern, African and Asian clusters agreed with mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal data from previous studies as well as historical records of migration and intermarriage. PMID:20546593

Future climate stimulates population out-breaks by relaxing constraints on reproduction.

PubMed

Heldt, Katherine A; Connell, Sean D; Anderson, Kathryn; Russell, Bayden D; Munguia, Pablo

2016-09-14

When conditions are stressful, reproduction and population growth are reduced, but when favourable, reproduction and population size can boom. Theory suggests climate change is an increasingly stressful environment, predicting extinctions or decreased abundances. However, if favourable conditions align, such as an increase in resources or release from competition and predation, future climate can fuel population growth. Tests of such population growth models and the mechanisms by which they are enabled are rare. We tested whether intergenerational increases in population size might be facilitated by adjustments in reproductive success to favourable environmental conditions in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Herbivorous amphipod populations responded to future climate by increasing 20 fold, suggesting that future climate might relax environmental constraints on fecundity. We then assessed whether future climate reduces variation in mating success, boosting population fecundity and size. The proportion of gravid females doubled, and variance in phenotypic variation of male secondary sexual characters (i.e. gnathopods) was significantly reduced. While future climate can enhance individual growth and survival, it may also reduce constraints on mechanisms of reproduction such that enhanced intra-generational productivity and reproductive success transfers to subsequent generations. Where both intra and intergenerational production is enhanced, population sizes might boom.

A panel of ancestry informative markers to estimate and correct potential effects of population stratification in Han Chinese.

PubMed

Qin, Pengfei; Li, Zhiqiang; Jin, Wenfei; Lu, Dongsheng; Lou, Haiyi; Shen, Jiawei; Jin, Li; Shi, Yongyong; Xu, Shuhua

2014-02-01

Population stratification acts as a confounding factor in genetic association studies and may lead to false-positive or false-negative results. Previous studies have analyzed the genetic substructures in Han Chinese population, the largest ethnic group in the world comprising ∼20% of the global human population. In this study, we examined 5540 Han Chinese individuals with about 1 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and screened a panel of ancestry informative markers (AIMs) to facilitate the discerning and controlling of population structure in future association studies on Han Chinese. Based on genome-wide data, we first confirmed our previous observation of the north-south differentiation in Han Chinese population. Second, we developed a panel of 150 validated SNP AIMs to determine the northern or southern origin of each Han Chinese individual. We further evaluated the performance of our AIMs panel in association studies in simulation analysis. Our results showed that this AIMs panel had sufficient power to discern and control population stratification in Han Chinese, which could significantly reduce false-positive rates in both genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and candidate gene association studies (CGAS). We suggest this AIMs panel be genotyped and used to control and correct population stratification in the study design or data analysis of future association studies, especially in CGAS which is the most popular approach to validate previous reports on genetic associations of diseases in post-GWAS era.

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations.

PubMed

Whitacre, James M; Atamas, Sergei P

2012-10-01

Trait diversity - the substrate for natural selection - is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy's role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.

2011-01-01

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M

2011-04-27

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.

Assessing future expectations and the two-dimensional model of affect in an Italian population.

PubMed

Corno, Giulia; Molinari, Guadalupe; Baños, Rosa Maria

2017-03-01

Future-directed thinking has been described as part of two underlying systems that integrate dimensions of affect, motivational systems, orientation to the future, and future expectations, which are initiated at the cognitive, affective, biological, behavioral, and motivational levels. The main aim of the present study is to test the two underlying frameworks model and explore future expectations in a general Italian-speaking population (N=345). Therefore, the second aim of the present paper is to confirm the factorial structure of the Subjective Probability Task (SPT; MacLeod et al., 1996), a questionnaire designed to assess specific positive and negative orientations towards the future. Results showed that the SPT has good psychometric properties and it is a reliable instrument to assess future-directed thinking. Moreover, our findings confirmed the role of future expectancies as cognitive correlates of depression and anxiety. Differently from previous studies (Clark and Watson, 1991; MacLeod et al., 1996), our results did not confirm that depression was characterized by low positive affect. We believe this paper contributes to the understanding of future expectancies and their relation with anxiety and depression, and will help to expand the availability of an instrument to assess future directed thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A population genetic transect of Panicum hallii (Poaceae).

PubMed

Lowry, David B; Purmal, Colin T; Juenger, Thomas E

2013-03-01

Understanding the relationship between climate, adaptation, and population structure is of fundamental importance to botanists because these factors are crucial for the evolution of biodiversity and the response of species to future climate change. Panicum hallii is an emerging model system for perennial grass and bioenergy research, yet very little is known about the relationship between climate and population structure in this system. • We analyzed geographic population differentiation across 39 populations of P. hallii along a longitudinal transect from the savannas of central Texas through the deserts of Arizona and New Mexico. A combination of morphological and genetic (microsatellite) analysis was used to explore patterns of population structure. • We found strong differentiation between high elevation western desert populations and lower elevation eastern populations of P. hallii, with a pronounced break in structure occurring in western Texas. In addition, we confirmed that there are high levels of morphological and genetic structure between previous recognized varieties (var. hallii and var. filipes) within this species. • The results of this study suggest that patterns of population structure within P. hallii may be driven by climatic variation over space. Overall, this study lays the groundwork for future studies on the genetics of local adaptation and reproductive isolation in this system.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia

PubMed Central

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers. PMID:27028871

Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

2014-01-01

Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are susceptible to declines now and into the future. Increases in environmental variability, deterministic changes in habitat conditions or stressors, or a single catastrophic event could all have immediately deleterious impacts on the long-term growth trajectory of these populations.

Anthropometric measurements in Iranian men.

PubMed

Gharehdaghi, Jaber; Baazm, Maryam; Ghadipasha, Masoud; Solhi, Sadra; Toutounchian, Farhoud

2018-01-01

There is inevitable need for data regarding anthropometric measurements of each community's population. These anthropometric data have various applications, including health assessment, industrial designing, plastic & orthopedic surgery, nutritional studies, anatomical studies and forensic medicine investigations. Anthropometric parameters vary from race to race throughout the world, hence providing an anthropometric profile model of residents of different geographic regions seems to be necessary. To our knowledge, there is no report of bone parameters of the Iranian population. The present study was carried out to provide data on anthropomorphic bone parameters of the Iranian population, as a basis for future relevant studies. We calculated most of the known anthropometric parameters including skull, mandible, clavicle, scapula, humerus, radius, ulna, sacrum, hip, femur, tibia and fibula of 225 male corpses during a period of 2 years (2014-2016). Data expression was done as mean ± standard deviation. The results consist the first documented report on anthropometric bone measurement profile of Iranian male population, that can be considered a valuable source of data for future research on Iranian population in this regard. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Conduct of a personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field measurement study: proposed study protocol.

PubMed

Röösli, Martin; Frei, Patrizia; Bolte, John; Neubauer, Georg; Cardis, Elisabeth; Feychting, Maria; Gajsek, Peter; Heinrich, Sabine; Joseph, Wout; Mann, Simon; Martens, Luc; Mohler, Evelyn; Parslow, Roger C; Poulsen, Aslak Harbo; Radon, Katja; Schüz, Joachim; Thuroczy, György; Viel, Jean-François; Vrijheid, Martine

2010-05-20

The development of new wireless communication technologies that emit radio frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) is ongoing, but little is known about the RF-EMF exposure distribution in the general population. Previous attempts to measure personal exposure to RF-EMF have used different measurement protocols and analysis methods making comparisons between exposure situations across different study populations very difficult. As a result, observed differences in exposure levels between study populations may not reflect real exposure differences but may be in part, or wholly due to methodological differences. The aim of this paper is to develop a study protocol for future personal RF-EMF exposure studies based on experience drawn from previous research. Using the current knowledge base, we propose procedures for the measurement of personal exposure to RF-EMF, data collection, data management and analysis, and methods for the selection and instruction of study participants. We have identified two basic types of personal RF-EMF measurement studies: population surveys and microenvironmental measurements. In the case of a population survey, the unit of observation is the individual and a randomly selected representative sample of the population is needed to obtain reliable results. For microenvironmental measurements, study participants are selected in order to represent typical behaviours in different microenvironments. These two study types require different methods and procedures. Applying our proposed common core procedures in future personal measurement studies will allow direct comparisons of personal RF-EMF exposures in different populations and study areas.

Conduct of a personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field measurement study: proposed study protocol

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The development of new wireless communication technologies that emit radio frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) is ongoing, but little is known about the RF-EMF exposure distribution in the general population. Previous attempts to measure personal exposure to RF-EMF have used different measurement protocols and analysis methods making comparisons between exposure situations across different study populations very difficult. As a result, observed differences in exposure levels between study populations may not reflect real exposure differences but may be in part, or wholly due to methodological differences. Methods The aim of this paper is to develop a study protocol for future personal RF-EMF exposure studies based on experience drawn from previous research. Using the current knowledge base, we propose procedures for the measurement of personal exposure to RF-EMF, data collection, data management and analysis, and methods for the selection and instruction of study participants. Results We have identified two basic types of personal RF-EMF measurement studies: population surveys and microenvironmental measurements. In the case of a population survey, the unit of observation is the individual and a randomly selected representative sample of the population is needed to obtain reliable results. For microenvironmental measurements, study participants are selected in order to represent typical behaviours in different microenvironments. These two study types require different methods and procedures. Conclusion Applying our proposed common core procedures in future personal measurement studies will allow direct comparisons of personal RF-EMF exposures in different populations and study areas. PMID:20487532

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

International Planned Parenthood Federation, London (England).

In an effort to help meet the growing interest and concern about the problems created by the rapid growth of population, The International Planned Parenthood Federation has prepared this booklet with the aim of assisting the study of the history and future trends of population growth and its impact on individual and family welfare, national,…

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Underwood, Vinh Le; Gibbs, H Lisle; Smith, Thomas B; Ruegg, Kristen

2018-01-05

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.

Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-05

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-01

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

The effects of population growth on timber management and inventories in Virginia

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Rei Liu; J. Michael Foreman; Raymond M. Sheffield

1999-01-01

Expanding human populations may have important effects on the availability of timber from private lands in the South. To examine the effects of development on timber supply, the authors compared the density of populations and various site variables with expert opinions on the future location of commercial timberland for a study site in Virginia. Population density is a...

DCEG scientists discuss researching cancer causes and training future researchers

Cancer.gov

Watch scientists in the NCI Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics discuss research into the causes of cancer at the population level. Topics include genome-wide association studies, HPV genomics, Li-Fraumeni syndrome, and training future scientists.

Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

2016-06-01

Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

Struggling to be seen and heard: the underserved and unserved populations.

PubMed

Cheng, Li-Rong Lilly

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide some current information on the topic of the underserved and unserved populations including modern-day slaves, stateless/displaced persons, refugees/migrants and indigenous populations. Speech-language pathology education and services for the underserved as well as unserved populations are discussed. Three case studies which demonstrate knowledge transfer and exchange as potential models for future development are presented. These case studies lead to more inquiries, studies, innovations and involvement from individuals and groups who are concerned about the underserved and unserved populations. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Serum long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated Fatty acids and future blood pressure in an ageing population.

PubMed

Nyantika, A N; Tuomainen, T-P; Kauhanen, J; Voutilainen, S; Virtanen, J K

2015-05-01

To investigate the associations of serum long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and hair mercury with future blood pressure in an ageing population. Prospective study with baseline measurements in 1998-2001 and follow-up measurements in 2005-2008. The linear relationships (β) of baseline serum fatty acids and hair mercury with future systolic and diastolic blood pressure and pulse pressure were analyzed with multiple linear regression models, using log-transformed values. 181 men and 200 women aged 53-73 y from the Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study (KIHD) population in Eastern Finland, who were free of cardiovascular disease, diabetes or hypertension at baseline. Total serum esterified and nonesterified fatty acids and pubic hair mercury were used as markers for exposure. Anthropometric and other lifestyle and health-related data were collected. The mean serum concentrations were 1.67% (SD 0.92) for eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), 0.79% (SD 0.16) for docosapentaenoic acid (DPA) and 2.78 (SD 0.92) for docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), of all serum fatty acids. The mean hair mercury concentration was 1.5 µg/g (SD 1.6). We did not find statistically significant associations between the baseline serum long-chain omega-3 PUFA concentrations or hair mercury content and future blood pressure. Hair mercury did not modify the associations with the long-chain omega-3 PUFAs, either. Higher serum long-chain omega-3 PUFA concentration, a biomarker of fish or fish oil consumption, may not have an impact on future blood pressure in an ageing population.

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

The impact of demographic change on the estimated future burden of infectious diseases: examples from hepatitis B and seasonal influenza in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background For accurate estimation of the future burden of communicable diseases, the dynamics of the population at risk – namely population growth and population ageing – need to be taken into account. Accurate burden estimates are necessary for informing policy-makers regarding the planning of vaccination and other control, intervention, and prevention measures. Our aim was to qualitatively explore the impact of population ageing on the estimated future burden of seasonal influenza and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the Netherlands, in the period 2000–2030. Methods Population-level disease burden was quantified using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) measure applied to all health outcomes following acute infection. We used national notification data, pre-defined disease progression models, and a simple model of demographic dynamics to investigate the impact of population ageing on the burden of seasonal influenza and HBV. Scenario analyses were conducted to explore the potential impact of intervention-associated changes in incidence rates. Results Including population dynamics resulted in increasing burden over the study period for influenza, whereas a relatively stable future burden was predicted for HBV. For influenza, the increase in DALYs was localised within YLL for the oldest age-groups (55 and older), and for HBV the effect of longer life expectancy in the future was offset by a reduction in incidence in the age-groups most at risk of infection. For both infections, the predicted disease burden was greater than if a static demography was assumed: 1.0 (in 2000) to 2.3-fold (in 2030) higher DALYs for influenza; 1.3 (in 2000) to 1.5-fold (in 2030) higher for HBV. Conclusions There are clear, but diverging effects of an ageing population on the estimated disease burden of influenza and HBV in the Netherlands. Replacing static assumptions with a dynamic demographic approach appears essential for deriving realistic burden estimates for informing health policy. PMID:23217094

Projections of water stress based on an ensemble of socioeconomic growth and climate change scenarios: A case study in Asia

DOE PAGES

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; ...

2016-03-30

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

2015-01-01

The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

Population, Education, and Children's Futures. Fastback 150.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bjork, Robert M.; Fraser, Stewart E.

This monograph discusses world population problems, examines the underlying concepts and issues in population education, and looks at the future. The monograph begins by describing an attempt at population education in a village of India. Eight guiding concepts that are considered to be essential for population educators are then discussed. These…

Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2015-09-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Pesticide exposures and respiratory health in general populations.

PubMed

Ye, Ming; Beach, Jeremy; Martin, Jonathan W; Senthilselvan, Ambikaipakan

2017-01-01

Human exposures to pesticides can occur in the workplace, in the household and through the ambient environment. While several articles have reviewed the impact of pesticide exposures on human respiratory health in occupational settings, to the best of our knowledge, this article is the first one to review published studies on the association between pesticide exposures and human respiratory health in the general populations. In this article, we critically reviewed evidences up to date studying the associations between non-occupational pesticide exposures and respiratory health in general populations. This article also highlighted questions arising from these studies, including our recent analyses using the data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS), for future research. We found few studies have addressed the impact of environmental pesticide exposures on respiratory health, especially on lung function, in general populations. In the studies using the data from CHMS Cycle 1, exposures to OP insecticides, pyrethroid insecticides, and the organochlorine pesticide DDT were associated with impaired lung function in the Canadian general population, but no significant associations were observed for the herbicide 2,4-D. Future research should focus on the potential age-specific and pesticide-specific effect on respiratory health in the general population, and repeated longitudinal study design is critical for assessing the temporal variations in pesticide exposures. Research findings from current studies of non-occupational pesticide exposures and their health impact in general population will help to improve the role of regulatory policies in mitigating pesticide-related public health problems, and thereafter providing greater benefit to the general population. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Autism in the Faroe Islands. An Epidemiological Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellefsen, Asa; Kampmann, Hanna; Billstedt, Eva; Gillberg, I. Carina; Gillberg, Christopher

2007-01-01

The Faroe Islands are considered to be a genetic isolate. This population study of the prevalence of autism sought to identify a representative cohort for future genetic studies. In 2002 all schools were screened for autism spectrum disorders. The target population were all children born in 1985 through 1994 and living in the Faroe Islands on…

Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico)

PubMed Central

Tysinger, Bryan; Goldman, Dana P; Wong, Rebeca

2017-01-01

Objective Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico’s older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes. Design A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older. Participants Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. Outcome measures We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits. Results In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001–2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020. Discussion Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence. PMID:29074514

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2017-01-01

ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

Falls amongst older people in Southeast Asia: a scoping review.

PubMed

Romli, M H; Tan, M P; Mackenzie, L; Lovarini, M; Suttanon, P; Clemson, L

2017-04-01

The older population in the Southeast Asian region is accelerating and is expected to surpass the proportion of the ageing population in North America and Europe in the future. This study aims to identify the research literature related to falls among older people in Southeast Asia, to examine current practice and discuss the future direction on falls prevention and interventions in the region. A scoping review design was used. A systematic literature search was conducted using the Medline, CINAHL, AMED, Ageline, PsycINFO, Web of Sciences, Scopus, Thai-Journal Citation Index, MyCite and trial registries databases. Thirty-seven studies and six study protocols were included, from Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. One-sixth of the studies involved interventions, while the remainder were observational studies. The observational studies mainly determined the falls risk factors. The intervention studies comprised multifactorial interventions and single interventions such as exercises, educational materials and visual correction. Many of the studies replicated international studies and may not have taken into account features unique to Southeast Asia. Our review has revealed studies evaluating falls and management of falls in the Southeast Asian context. More research is required from all Southeast Asian countries to prepare for the future challenges of managing falls as the population ages. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population ageing and dental care.

PubMed

Harford, Jane

2009-04-01

Population ageing is a fact in both developed and developing countries. The concern about population ageing largely arises from the combination of a greater number of older people requiring greater amounts of healthcare services and pensions, and relatively fewer people working to pay for them. Oral health and dental care are important aspects of health and health care. Lower rates of edentulism and an ageing population mean that older people will feature more prominently in dental services. Traditionally, economic studies of ageing have focused on the fiscal implications of ageing, projecting the increased burden on health and welfare services that accompanies ageing. It assumed that ageing is the major driver of recent changes and those past trends will simply be amplified by faster population ageing in the future. Less work has been done to understand other past drivers of increased healthcare spending and their implications for the future. The conclusion of these reports is usually that population ageing is unaffordable with current policy settings. They have proposed policies to deal with population ageing which focused on increasing workforce participation and worker productivity to increase the tax base and reducing entitlements. However, the affordability question is as much political as a numerical. There are no clearly articulated criteria for affordability and little opportunity for public discourse about what citizens are willing to pay in taxes to support an ageing population. While the reports do not necessarily reflect public opinion, they will certainly shape it. Predicting the future for oral health is more fraught than for general health, as oral health is in the midst of an epidemiological transition from high rates of edentulism and tooth loss to low rates. Changes in the pattern of dental expenditure in the past do not mirror the experience of rapid increases in per capita expenditure on older age groups as regards general health. Dentistry's marginal status means that less work has been done to understand the future consequences of these changes and how they will interact with population ageing. Further than this though, we need to understand why the future might look as these projections suggest, so that we may look at ways that it can be shaped.

The relationship of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity to future cardiovascular disease events in the general Japanese population: the Takashima Study.

PubMed

Takashima, N; Turin, T C; Matsui, K; Rumana, N; Nakamura, Y; Kadota, A; Saito, Y; Sugihara, H; Morita, Y; Ichikawa, M; Hirose, K; Kawakani, K; Hamajima, N; Miura, K; Ueshima, H; Kita, Y

2014-05-01

Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is a non-invasive measure of arterial stiffness obtained using an automated system. Although baPWVs have been widely used as a non-invasive marker for evaluation of arterial stiffness, evidence for the prognostic value of baPWV in the general population is scarce. In this study, we assessed the association between baPWV and future cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in a Japanese population. From 2002 to 2009, baPWV was measured in a total of 4164 men and women without a history of CVD, and they were followed up until the end of 2009 with a median follow-up period of 6.5 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD incidence according to baPWV levels were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for potential confounding factors, including seated or supine blood pressure (BP). During the follow-up period, we observed 40 incident cases of CVD. In multivariable-adjusted model, baPWV as a continuous variable was not significantly associated with future CVD risk after adjustment for supine BP. However, compared with lower baPWV category (<18 m s(-1)), higher baPWV (< or = 18.0 m s(-1)) was significantly associated with an increased CVD risk (HR: 2.70, 95% confidence interval: 1.18-6.19). Higher baPWV (< or = 18.0 m s(-1)) would be an independent predictor of future CVD event in the general Japanese population.

Population connectivity and genetic diversity of American marten (Martes americana) in the United States northern Rocky Mountains in a climate change context

Treesearch

Tzeidle N. Wasserman; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeremy S. Littell; Andrew J. Shirk; Erin L. Landguth

2013-01-01

Climate change is likely to alter population connectivity, particularly for species associated with higher elevation environments. The goal of this study is to predict the potential effects of future climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of American marten populations across a 30.2 million hectare region of the in the US northern Rocky...

The Future of the American Family [And] Prospective Trends in the Size and Structure of the Elderly Population, Impact of Mortality Trends, and Some Implications. Current Population Reports, Special Studies Series P-23, No. 78.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glick, Paul C.; Siegel, Jacob S.

The document contains two reports on consequences of population trends for families and older adults in the United States. The reports were submitted as testimony before congressional committees on population and aging. The first report discusses projected changes in American family life in light of population growth, enrollment in schools and…

Genetic variation and structure in remnant population of critically endangered Melicope zahlbruckneri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raji, J. A.; Atkinson, Carter T.

2016-01-01

The distribution and amount of genetic variation within and between populations of plant species are important for their adaptability to future habitat changes and also critical for their restoration and overall management. This study was initiated to assess the genetic status of the remnant population of Melicope zahlbruckneri–a critically endangered species in Hawaii, and determine the extent of genetic variation and diversity in order to propose valuable conservation approaches. Estimated genetic structure of individuals based on molecular marker allele frequencies identified genetic groups with low overall differentiation but identified the most genetically diverse individuals within the population. Analysis of Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphic (AFLP) marker loci in the population based on Bayesian model and multivariate statistics classified the population into four subgroups. We inferred a mixed species population structure based on Bayesian clustering and frequency of unique alleles. The percentage of Polymorphic Fragment (PPF) ranged from 18.8 to 64.6% for all marker loci with an average of 54.9% within the population. Inclusion of all surviving M. zahlbruckneri trees in future restorative planting at new sites are suggested, and approaches for longer term maintenance of genetic variability are discussed. To our knowledge, this study represents the first report of molecular genetic analysis of the remaining population of M. zahlbruckneri and also illustrates the importance of genetic variability for conservation of a small endangered population.

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

PubMed

McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Edward A; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

Projecting Age-Stratified Risk of Exposure to Inland Flooding and Wildfire Smoke in the United States under Two Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Mills, David; Jones, Russell; Wobus, Cameron; Ekstrom, Julia; Jantarasami, Lesley; St Juliana, Alexis; Crimmins, Allison

2018-04-17

The public health community readily recognizes flooding and wildfires as climate-related health hazards, but few studies quantify changes in risk of exposure, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. This study quantifies future populations potentially exposed to inland flooding and wildfire smoke under two climate scenarios, highlighting the populations in particularly vulnerable age groups (≤4 y old and ≥65 y old). Spatially explicit projections of inland flooding and wildfire under two representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) are integrated with static (2010) and dynamic (2050 and 2090) age-stratified projections of future contiguous U.S. populations at the county level. In both 2050 and 2090, an additional one-third of the population will live in areas affected by larger and more frequent inland flooding under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5. Approximately 15 million children and 25 million older adults could avoid this increased risk of flood exposure each year by 2090 under a moderate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5 compared with RCP8.5). We also find reduced exposure to wildfire smoke under the moderate mitigation scenario. Nearly 1 million young children and 1.7 million older adults would avoid exposure to wildfire smoke each year under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. By integrating climate-driven hazard and population projections, newly created county-level exposure maps identify locations of potential significant future public health risk. These potential exposure results can help inform actions to prevent and prepare for associated future adverse health outcomes, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2594.

Implications of demographics on future blood supply: a population-based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Greinacher, Andreas; Fendrich, Konstanze; Brzenska, Ralf; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2011-04-01

Data on blood recipients are sparse and unconnected to data on blood donors. The objective was to analyze the impact of the demographic change on future blood demand and supply in a German federal state. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted. For all in-hospital transfused red blood cells (RBCs; n = 95,477), in the German federal state Mecklenburg-Pomerania in 2005, characteristics of the patient and the blood donor (118,406 blood donations) were obtained. Population data were used to predict blood demand and supply until 2020. By 2020 the population increase of those aged 65 years or more (+26.4%) in Mecklenburg-Pomerania will be paralleled by a decrease of the potential donor population (18-68 years; -16.1%). Assuming stable rates per age group until 2020, the demand for in-hospital blood transfusions will increase by approximately 25% (24,000 RBC units) while blood donations will decrease by approximately 27% (32,000 RBC units). The resulting, predicted shortfall is 47% of demand for in-hospital patients (56,000 RBC units). Validation using historical data (1997-2007) showed that the model predicted the RBC demand with a deviation of only 1.2%. Demographic changes are particularly pronounced in former East Germany, but by 2030 most European countries will face a similar situation. The decrease of younger age groups requires an increase of blood donation rates and interdisciplinary approaches to reduce the need for transfusion to maintain sufficient blood supply. Demography is a major determinant of future transfusion demand. All efforts should be made by Western societies to systematically obtain data on blood donors and recipients to develop strategies to meet future blood demand. © 2010 American Association of Blood Banks.

Network Models: An Underutilized Tool in Wildlife Epidemiology?

PubMed Central

Craft, Meggan E.; Caillaud, Damien

2011-01-01

Although the approach of contact network epidemiology has been increasing in popularity for studying transmission of infectious diseases in human populations, it has generally been an underutilized approach for investigating disease outbreaks in wildlife populations. In this paper we explore the differences between the type of data that can be collected on human and wildlife populations, provide an update on recent advances that have been made in wildlife epidemiology by using a network approach, and discuss why networks might have been underutilized and why networks could and should be used more in the future. We conclude with ideas for future directions and a call for field biologists and network modelers to engage in more cross-disciplinary collaboration. PMID:21527981

Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer-chyi; Johnson, N. L.

2006-01-01

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

The crowded life is a slow life: Population density and life history strategy.

PubMed

Sng, Oliver; Neuberg, Steven L; Varnum, Michael E W; Kenrick, Douglas T

2017-05-01

The world population has doubled over the last half century. Yet, research on the psychological effects of human population density, once a popular topic, has decreased over the past few decades. Applying a fresh perspective to an old topic, we draw upon life history theory to examine the effects of population density. Across nations and across the U.S. states (Studies 1 and 2), we find that dense populations exhibit behaviors corresponding to a slower life history strategy, including greater future-orientation, greater investment in education, more long-term mating orientation, later marriage age, lower fertility, and greater parental investment. In Studies 3 and 4, experimentally manipulating perceptions of high density led individuals to become more future-oriented. Finally, in Studies 5 and 6, experimentally manipulating perceptions of high density seemed to lead to life-stage-specific slower strategies, with college students preferring to invest in fewer rather than more relationship partners, and an older MTurk sample preferring to invest in fewer rather than more children. This research sheds new insight on the effects of density and its implications for human cultural variation and society at large. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Future mobility demand in megaregions : a national study with a focus on the Gulf Coast.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-09-01

About three fourth of national population and wealth are concentered in the 11 megaregional areas that occupy one fourth of the land areas in the US. NHTS reveal that megaregions also concentrate current and future mobility demand. This report presen...

Literature Review of Research on Chronic Pain and Yoga in Military Populations

PubMed Central

Miller, Shari; Gaylord, Susan; Buben, Alex; Brintz, Carrie; Rae Olmsted, Kristine; Asefnia, Nakisa; Bartoszek, Michael

2017-01-01

Background: Although yoga is increasingly being provided to active duty soldiers and veterans, studies with military populations are limited and effects on chronic pain are largely unknown. We reviewed the existing body of literature and provide recommendations for future research. Methods: We conducted a literature review of electronic databases (PubMed, PsychINFO, Web of Science, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index—Science, and Conference Proceedings Citation Index—Social Science & Humanities). The studies were reviewed for characteristics such as mean age of participants, sample size, yoga type, and study design. Only peer-reviewed studies were included in the review. Results: The search yielded only six studies that examined pain as an outcome of yoga for military populations. With one exception, studies were with veteran populations. Only one study was conducted with Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) or Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) veterans. One study was a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Four of the five studies remaining used pre/post design, while the last study used a post-only design. Conclusions: Studies on the use of yoga to treat chronic pain in military populations are in their infancy. Methodological weaknesses include small sample sizes, a lack of studies with key groups (active duty, OEF/IEF veterans), and use of single group uncontrolled designs (pre/post; post only) for all but one study. Future research is needed to address these methodological limitations and build on this small body of literature. PMID:28930278

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

PubMed

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-03-01

Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

Culturally Grounded Prevention for Minority Youth Populations: A Systematic Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Lauricella, Michela; Valdez, Jessica K.; Okamoto, Scott K.; Helm, Susana; Zaremba, Colleen

2016-01-01

Contemporary prevention science has focused on the application of cultural adaptations of evidence-based prevention programs for minority youth populations. Far less is known about culturally grounded methods that are intended to organically develop prevention programs within specific populations and communities. This article systematically reviews recent literature on culturally grounded interventions used to prevent health disparities in ethnic minority youth populations. In this review, we assessed 31 peer-reviewed articles published in 2003 or later that fit inclusionary criteria pertaining to the development and evaluation of culturally grounded prevention programs. The evaluated studies indicated different approaches toward cultural grounding, as well as specific populations, geographic regions, and health issues that have been targeted. Specifically, the findings indicated that most of the studies focused on the development and evaluation of culturally grounded HIV/STI and substance abuse prevention programs for Mexican American, African American, and American Indian/Alaska Native youth residing in the South or Southwestern U.S. These studies largely relied on community-based participatory or qualitative research methods to develop programs from the “ground up.” This review has implications for the development of future culturally grounded and culturally adapted prevention programs targeting underserved minority youth populations and geographic regions. Specifically, it identifies populations and regions where culturally grounded prevention efforts are underdeveloped or non-existent, providing some scientific direction for the future development of these types of programs. PMID:26733384

Culturally Grounded Prevention for Minority Youth Populations: A Systematic Review of the Literature.

PubMed

Lauricella, Michela; Valdez, Jessica K; Okamoto, Scott K; Helm, Susana; Zaremba, Colleen

2016-02-01

Contemporary prevention science has focused on the application of cultural adaptations of evidence-based prevention programs for minority youth populations. Far less is known about culturally grounded methods that are intended to organically develop prevention programs within specific populations and communities. This article systematically reviews recent literature on culturally grounded interventions used to prevent health disparities in ethnic minority youth populations. In this review, we assessed 31 peer-reviewed articles published in 2003 or later that fit inclusionary criteria pertaining to the development and evaluation of culturally grounded prevention programs. The evaluated studies indicated different approaches toward cultural grounding, as well as specific populations, geographic regions, and health issues that have been targeted. Specifically, the findings indicated that most of the studies focused on the development and evaluation of culturally grounded HIV/STI and substance abuse prevention programs for Mexican-American, African American, and American Indian/Alaska Native youth residing in the South or Southwestern US. These studies largely relied on community-based participatory or qualitative research methods to develop programs from the "ground up." This review has implications for the development of future culturally grounded and culturally adapted prevention programs targeting underserved minority youth populations and geographic regions. Specifically, it identifies populations and regions where culturally grounded prevention efforts are underdeveloped or non-existent, providing some scientific direction for the future development of these types of programs.

Genetic structure of muskellunge in the Great Lakes region and the effects of supplementation on genetic integrity of wild populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turnquist, Keith N.; Larson, Wesley; Farrell, John M.; Hanchin, P.A.; Kapuscinski, Kevin L.; Miller, Loren M.; Scribner, Kim T.; Wilson, Chris C.; Sloss, Brian L.

2017-01-01

Muskellunge (Esox masquinongy) are important apex predators that support numerous recreational fisheries throughout the Great Lakes region. Declines in muskellunge abundance from historical overharvest and environmental degradation have threatened the viability of many populations and prompted significant restoration efforts that often include stocking. The goal of our study was to investigate contemporary population structure and genetic diversity in 42 populations of muskellunge sampled across the Great Lakes region to inform future management and supplementation practices. We genotyped 1896 muskellunge (N = 10–123/population) at 13 microsatellite loci. The greatest genetic variation was between populations of Great Lakes origin and populations of Northern (inland) origin, with both groups also exhibiting significant substructure (overall FST = 0.23). Genetic structure was generally correlated with geography; however, we only found marginal evidence of isolation by distance, likely due to high genetic differentiation among proximate populations. Measures of genetic diversity were moderate across most populations, but some populations displayed low diversity consistent with small population sizes or historical bottlenecks. Many of the populations studied displayed evidence of historic introductions and supplemental stocking, including the presence of individuals with primarily non-native ancestry as well as interlineage hybrids. Our results suggest that the historic population structure of muskellunge is largely intact across the Great Lakes region, but also that stocking practices have altered this structure to some degree. We suggest that future supplementation practices use local sources where possible, and incorporate genetic tools including broodstock screening to ensure that non-native muskellunge are not used to supplement wild populations.

Trait Selection Preference of Preadolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Marie Somers

This study examined the preferences of middle grade students in selecting traits for their own future infants. Sixth- and seventh-grade populations of two elementary schools (l73 males and 90 females) participated. A simulated activity entitled "Parenting l995" was developed to provide the future setting and the instrument through which to explore…

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation, and Economy to Inform Light Rail Transit Decisions

EPA Science Inventory

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic a...

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation, and Economy to Inform Light Rail Transit Decisions (proceedings)

EPA Science Inventory

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic a...

Repetition-Related Reductions in Neural Activity during Emotional Simulations of Future Events.

PubMed

Szpunar, Karl K; Jing, Helen G; Benoit, Roland G; Schacter, Daniel L

2015-01-01

Simulations of future experiences are often emotionally arousing, and the tendency to repeatedly simulate negative future outcomes has been identified as a predictor of the onset of symptoms of anxiety. Nonetheless, next to nothing is known about how the healthy human brain processes repeated simulations of emotional future events. In this study, we present a paradigm that can be used to study repeated simulations of the emotional future in a manner that overcomes phenomenological confounds between positive and negative events. The results show that pulvinar nucleus and orbitofrontal cortex respectively demonstrate selective reductions in neural activity in response to frequently as compared to infrequently repeated simulations of negative and positive future events. Implications for research on repeated simulations of the emotional future in both non-clinical and clinical populations are discussed.

The linkage disequilibrium pattern of the angiotensin converting enzyme gene in Arabic and Asian population groups.

PubMed

Kharrat, Najla; Abdelmouleh, Wafa; Abdelhedi, Rania; Alfadhli, Suad; Rebai, Ahmed

2012-01-01

DNA variations within the Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme (ACE) gene have been shown to be involved in the aetiology of several common diseases and the therapeutic response. This study reports a comparison of haplotype analysis of five SNPs in the ACE gene region using a sample of 100 healthy subjects derived from five different populations (Tunisian, Iranian, Kuwaiti, Bahraini and Indian). Strong linkage disequilibrium was found among all SNPs studied for all populations. Two SNPs (rs1800764 and rs4340) were identified as key SNPs for all populations. These SNPs will be valuable for future effective association studies of the ACE gene polymorphisms in Arab and Asian populations.

Applications of Human Factors in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajulu, Sudhakar; Margerum, Sarah

2008-01-01

The main question for human factors practitioners is to determine if the user population can be accommodated within a design. Given the wide range of variables feeding into a design, just one of which is human factors, oftentimes designers will have restrictions that may potentially impact the level of accommodation. This paper focuses on two case studies where there have been impacts at the design level that may be detrimental to the ability of the design to meet certain criteria. The studies use novel approaches to determine what, if any, changes in population accommodation levels have occurred and what factors are important when manipulating the design in the future. The results of these studies provide a backbone for future analyses when working with design considerations.

Regulation of water resources for sustaining global future socioeconomic development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; SHI, H.; Sivakumar, B.

2016-12-01

With population projections indicating continued growth during this century, socio-economic problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if proper planning, development, and management strategies are not adopted. In the present study, firstly, we explore the vital role of dams in promoting economic growth through analyzing the relationship between dams and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at both global and national scales. Secondly, we analyze the current situation of global water scarcity based on the data representing water resources availability, dam development, and the level of economic development. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, this study addresses the question of dam development in the future and predicts the locations of future dams around the world.

Biomarkers of Mercury Exposure in the Amazon

PubMed Central

de Castro, Nathália Santos Serrão; Lima, Marcelo de Oliveira

2014-01-01

Mercury exposure in the Amazon has been studied since the 1980s decade and the assessment of human mercury exposure in the Amazon is difficult given that the natural occurrence of this metal is high and the concentration of mercury in biological samples of this population exceeds the standardized value of normality established by WHO. Few studies have focused on the discovery of mercury biomarkers in the region's population. In this way, some studies have used genetics as well as immunological and cytogenetic tools in order to find a molecular biomarker for assessing the toxicological effect of mercury in the Amazonian population. Most of those studies focused attention on the relation between mercury exposure and autoimmunity and, because of that, they will be discussed in more detail. Here we introduce the general aspects involved with each biomarker that was studied in the region in order to contextualize the reader and add information about the Amazonian life style and health that may be considered for future studies. We hope that, in the future, the toxicological studies in this field use high technological tools, such as the next generation sequencing and proteomics skills, in order to comprehend basic questions regarding the metabolic route of mercury in populations that are under constant exposure, such as in the Amazon. PMID:24895619

Coordination between Education and Population Policies--A Case Study of India.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chawla, S. P.

Population and educational policies of the government of India since 1950 are reviewed. A major objective of the study is to take stock of accomplishments and problems in the two policy areas so that policymakers will have up to date information upon which to base future planning. The document is presented in seven chapters. Chapter I offers an…

Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J.-C.; Johnson, N. L.; Hill, N. M.

2008-01-01

Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

The shaping of genetic variation in edge-of-range populations under past and future climate change

PubMed Central

Razgour, Orly; Juste, Javier; Ibáñez, Carlos; Kiefer, Andreas; Rebelo, Hugo; Puechmaille, Sébastien J; Arlettaz, Raphael; Burke, Terry; Dawson, Deborah A; Beaumont, Mark; Jones, Gareth; Wiens, John

2013-01-01

With rates of climate change exceeding the rate at which many species are able to shift their range or adapt, it is important to understand how future changes are likely to affect biodiversity at all levels of organisation. Understanding past responses and extent of niche conservatism in climatic tolerance can help predict future consequences. We use an integrated approach to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus. Glacial refugia predicted by palaeo-modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model-based inference of demographic history. Former refugial populations currently contain disproportionately high genetic diversity, but niche conservatism, shifts in suitable areas and barriers to migration mean that these hotspots of genetic diversity are under threat from future climate change. Evidence of population decline despite recent northward migration highlights the need to conserve leading-edge populations for spearheading future range shifts. PMID:23890483

[Dental practitioners in Israel: past, present and future].

PubMed

Mann, J; Vered, Y; Zini, A

2010-04-01

Since 1980 various studies have been published in Israel dealing with dental manpower issues, utilizing several methods such as manpower to population ratio. The dental literature pointed out that dentistry in Israel has an over supply of dentists and that manpower to population ratio is one of the highest in the world 1:770. All studies were based on the information provided by the Ministry of Health which showed that Israel has over 9500 dentists. The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics figures showed a much smaller number which was 5700 active dentists. This enormous gap in between two sources of information, following strict examination of the data revealed that the Bureau of Statistics information is reliable and hence, the real manpower to population ratio in Israel in 2008 was 1:1271. Prediction of manpower is extremely important and the base line information is crucial for future evaluations.

Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.

Instability of the Present LEO Satellite Populations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer-Chyi; Johnson, Nicholas L.

2006-01-01

Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with some assumed launch rates, the future unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects. In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new breakup debris due to collisions would exceed the loss of objects due to orbital decay. A new study has been conducted in the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, using higher fidelity models to evaluate the current debris environment. The study assumed no satellites were launched after December 2005. A total of 150 Monte Carlo runs were carried out and analyzed. Each Monte Carlo run simulated the current debris environment and projected it 200 years into the future. The results indicate that the LEO debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris. Detailed analysis shows that this growth is primarily driven by high collision activities around 900 to 1000 km altitude - the region which has a very high concentration of debris at present. In reality, the satellite population growth in LEO will undoubtedly be worse than this study indicates, since spacecraft and their orbital stages will continue to be launched into space. Postmission disposal of vehicles (e.g., limiting postmission orbital lifetimes to less than 25 years) will help, but will be insufficient to constrain the Earth satellite population. To preserve better the near-Earth environment for future space activities, it might be necessary to remove existing large and massive objects from regions where high collision activities are expected.

Arizona Indian Demographic Data: Needs and Recommendations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Benjamin J.; Helmkamp, John

Included in this report on Arizona Indian demographic data are "an evaluation of several recent studies of Indian populations" and "an extensive analysis of methods for obtaining and maintaining accurate data in the future." Recommended methods by which accurate population data for the smaller reservations should be maintained are included in the…

Molecular genetics of Asian longhorned beetles: introduction, invasion, and spread in North America

Treesearch

M. D. Ginzel; L. M. Hanks; K. N. Paige

2003-01-01

We have used molecular techniques to study the genetic structure of Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) populations in North America, allowing us to assess the dispersal behavior of the adult beetles, the extent to which populations have spread in urban areas, and the potential for future spread.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review.

PubMed

Sanderson, Michael; Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.

Social Support and HIV-related Risk Behaviors: A Systematic Review of the Global Literature

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaoming; Stanton, Bonita

2013-01-01

Existing empirical evidence has well documented the role of social support in both physical and psychological well-being among various populations. In the context of HIV prevention, the rapid increase of studies on social support merits a systematic review to synthesize the current global literature on association between social support and HIV-related risk behaviors. The current review reveals a complex picture of this relationship across diverse populations. Existing studies indicate that higher levels of social support are related to fewer HIV-related risk behaviors among female sex workers and people living with HIV/AIDS and heterosexual adults in general. However, influences of social support on HIV-related risk behaviors are inconsistent within drug users, men who have sex with men and adolescents. These variations in findings may be attributed to different measurement of social support in different studies, specific context of social support for diverse population, or various characteristics of the social networks the study population obtained support from. Future studies are needed to explore the mechanism of how social support affects HIV-related risk behaviors. HIV prevention intervention efforts need to focus on the positive effect of social support for various vulnerable and at-risk populations. Future efforts also need to incorporate necessary structure change and utilize technical innovation in order to maximize the protective role of social support in HIV risk prevention or reduction. PMID:23921582

Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

PubMed

Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

2018-03-01

Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

The potential effect of population development, smoking and antioxidant supplementation on the future epidemiology of age-related macular degeneration in Switzerland.

PubMed

Bauer, P; Barthelmes, D; Kurz, M; Fleischhauer, J C; Sutter, F K

2008-05-01

Due to the predicted age shift of the population an increase in the number of patients with late AMD is expected. At present smoking represents the only modifiable risk factor. Supplementation of antioxidants in patients at risk is the sole effective pharmacological prevention. The aim of this study is to estimate the future epidemiological development of late AMD in Switzerland and to quantify the potential effects of smoking and antioxidants supplementation. The modelling of the future development of late AMD cases in Switzerland was based on a meta-analysis of the published data on AMD-prevalence and on published Swiss population development scenarios until 2050. Three different scenarios were compared: low, mean and high. The late AMD cases caused by smoking were calculated using the "population attributable fraction" formula and data on the current smoking habits of the Swiss population. The number of potentially preventable cases was estimated using the data of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). According to the mean population development scenario, late AMD cases in Switzerland will rise from 37 200 cases in 2005 to 52 500 cases in 2020 and to 93 200 cases in 2050. Using the "low" and the "high" scenarios the late AMD cases may range from 49 500 to 56 000 in 2020 and from 73 700 to 118 400 in 2050, respectively. Smoking is responsible for approximately 7 % of all late AMD cases, i. e., 2600 cases in 2005, 3800 cases in 2020, 6600 cases in 2050 ("mean scenario"). With future antioxidant supplementation to all patients at risk another 3100 cases would be preventable until 2020 and possibly 23 500 cases until 2050. Due to age shift in the population a 2.5-fold increase in late AMD cases until 2050 is expected, representing a socioeconomic challenge. Cessation of smoking and supplementation of antioxidants to all patients at risk has the potential to reduce this number. Unfortunately, public awareness is low. These data may support health-care providers and public opinion leaders when developing public education and prevention strategies.

Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico).

PubMed

Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Cesar; Tysinger, Bryan; Goldman, Dana P; Wong, Rebeca

2017-10-25

Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico's older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes. A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older. Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits. In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001-2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020. Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Current & future vulnerability of sarasota county Florida to hurricane storm surge & sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.

2008-01-01

Coastal communities in portions of the United States are vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials. Copyright ASCE 2008.

U.S. Population Growth: Prospects and Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McFalls, Joseph A., Jr.; And Others

1984-01-01

The Commission on Population Growth and the American Future concluded that zero population growth (ZPG) is in the best interest of the United States. To achieve ZPG in the future, the United States must keep fertility and net immigration relatively low. Practical problems are discussed. (RM)

Plasma Free Amino Acid Profiles Predict Four-Year Risk of Developing Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome, Dyslipidemia, and Hypertension in Japanese Population

PubMed Central

Yamakado, Minoru; Nagao, Kenji; Imaizumi, Akira; Tani, Mizuki; Toda, Akiko; Tanaka, Takayuki; Jinzu, Hiroko; Miyano, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Daimon, Takashi; Horimoto, Katsuhisa; Ishizaka, Yuko

2015-01-01

Plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile is highlighted in its association with visceral obesity and hyperinsulinemia, and future diabetes. Indeed PFAA profiling potentially can evaluate individuals’ future risks of developing lifestyle-related diseases, in addition to diabetes. However, few studies have been performed especially in Asian populations, about the optimal combination of PFAAs for evaluating health risks. We quantified PFAA levels in 3,701 Japanese subjects, and determined visceral fat area (VFA) and two-hour post-challenge insulin (Ins120 min) values in 865 and 1,160 subjects, respectively. Then, models between PFAA levels and the VFA or Ins120 min values were constructed by multiple linear regression analysis with variable selection. Finally, a cohort study of 2,984 subjects to examine capabilities of the obtained models for predicting four-year risk of developing new-onset lifestyle-related diseases was conducted. The correlation coefficients of the obtained PFAA models against VFA or Ins120 min were higher than single PFAA level. Our models work well for future risk prediction. Even after adjusting for commonly accepted multiple risk factors, these models can predict future development of diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and dyslipidemia. PFAA profiles confer independent and differing contributions to increasing the lifestyle-related disease risks in addition to the currently known factors in a general Japanese population. PMID:26156880

Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

2017-12-01

Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas. Improving water demand forecasts will help planners understand and optimize future investments in water supply infrastructure and related programs.

Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie; McGregor, Glenn

2009-01-01

We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health, as well as studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and the impacts of these changes on morbidity/mortality. Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty are the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given the uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, increasing morbidity/mortality. There are few projections for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, because few studies have been conducted. More research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution-related health impacts.

Genetic composition and connectivity of the Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus) in Panama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Díaz-Ferguson, Edgardo; Hunter, Margaret; Guzmán, Héctor M.

2017-01-01

Genetic diversity and haplotype composition of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) population from the San San Pond Sak wetland in Bocas del Toro, Panama was studied using a segment of mitochondrial DNA (D’loop). No genetic information has been published to date for Panamanian populations. Due to the secretive behavior and small population size of the species in the area, DNA extraction was conducted from opportunistically collected fecal (N=20), carcass tissue (N=4) and bone (N=4) samples. However, after DNA processing only 10 samples provided good quality DNA for sequencing (3 fecal, 4 tissue and 3 bone samples). We found three haplotypes in total; two of these haplotypes are reported for the first time, J02 (N=3) and J03 (N=4), and one J01 was previously published (N=3). Genetic diversity showed similar values to previous studies conducted in other Caribbean regions with moderate values of nucleotide diversity (π= 0.00152) and haplotipic diversity (Hd= 0.57). Connectivity assessment was based on sequence similarity, genetic distance and genetic differentiation between San San population and other manatee populations previously studied. The J01 haplotype found in the Panamanian population is shared with populations in the Caribbean mainland and the Gulf of Mexico showing a reduced differentiation corroborated with Fst value between HSSPS and this region of 0.0094. In contrast, comparisons between our sequences and populations in the Eastern Caribbean (South American populations) and North Western Caribbean showed fewer similarities (Fst =0.049 and 0.058, respectively). These results corroborate previous phylogeographic patterns already established for manatee populations and situate Panamanian populations into the Belize and Mexico cluster. In addition, these findings will be a baseline for future studies and comparisons with manatees in other areas of Panama and Central America. These results should be considered to inform management decisions regarding conservation of genetic diversity, future controlled introductions, connectivity and effective population size of the West Indian manatee along the Central American corridor.

Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

2010-01-01

County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

National surveys of military personnel, nursing students, and the public: drivers of military nursing careers.

PubMed

Donelan, Karen; Romano, Carol; Buerhaus, Peter; DesRoches, Catherine; Applebaum, Sandra; Ward, Johanna Rm; Schoneboom, Bruce A; Hinshaw, Ada Sue

2014-05-01

The U.S. health care system is facing a projected nursing shortage of unprecedented magnitude. Although military nursing services recently have been able to meet their nursing recruitment quotas, national studies have predicted a long-term nursing shortage that may affect future recruitment for the Nurse Corps of the three military services. Data are needed to plan for recruitment incentives and the impact of those incentives on targeted populations of likely future nurses. Data are drawn from three online surveys conducted in 2011-2012, including surveys of 1,302 Army, Navy, and Air Force personnel serving on major military bases, 914 nursing students at colleges with entry Bachelor of Science in Nursing programs located nearby major military bases, and a qualitative survey of 1,200 young adults, age 18-39, in the general public. The three populations are different in several demographic characteristics. We explored perceptions of military careers, nursing careers and barriers, and incentives to pursue military nursing careers in all populations. Perceptions differ among the groups. The results of this study may help to inform strategies for reaching out to specific populations with targeted messages that focus on barriers and facilitators relevant to each to successfully recruit a diverse Nurse Corps for the future. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Vulnerable Population Challenges in the Transformation of Cancer Care.

PubMed

Meneses, Karen; Landier, Wendy; Dionne-Odom, J Nicholas

2016-05-01

To consider current trends and future strategies that will bring about change in cancer care delivery for vulnerable populations. Institute of Medicine reports, literature review, clinical practice observations and experiences. Vulnerable populations are older adults, both minorities and the underserved, children, and individuals at end of life. These groups pose unique challenges that require health system changes and innovative nursing models to assure access to patient-centered care in the future. In the future, attention to the needs of vulnerable populations, the growing aging cancer population and the improved outcomes in the pediatric and adolescent cancer population will all require new nursing services and models of care. System changes where nursing roles are critical to support the transition to earlier palliative care are projected. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines

PubMed Central

Miller, Kristina M; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma G; Ming, Tobi J; Cooke, Steven J; Hipfner, J Mark; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G

2014-01-01

Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high-density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations. PMID:25469162

Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines.

PubMed

Miller, Kristina M; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma G; Ming, Tobi J; Cooke, Steven J; Hipfner, J Mark; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G

2014-08-01

Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high-density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations.

Urinary Sugars--A Biomarker of Total Sugars Intake.

PubMed

Tasevska, Natasha

2015-07-15

Measurement error in self-reported sugars intake may explain the lack of consistency in the epidemiologic evidence on the association between sugars and disease risk. This review describes the development and applications of a biomarker of sugars intake, informs its future use and recommends directions for future research. Recently, 24 h urinary sucrose and fructose were suggested as a predictive biomarker for total sugars intake, based on findings from three highly controlled feeding studies conducted in the United Kingdom. From this work, a calibration equation for the biomarker that provides an unbiased measure of sugars intake was generated that has since been used in two US-based studies with free-living individuals to assess measurement error in dietary self-reports and to develop regression calibration equations that could be used in future diet-disease analyses. Further applications of the biomarker include its use as a surrogate measure of intake in diet-disease association studies. Although this biomarker has great potential and exhibits favorable characteristics, available data come from a few controlled studies with limited sample sizes conducted in the UK. Larger feeding studies conducted in different populations are needed to further explore biomarker characteristics and stability of its biases, compare its performance, and generate a unique, or population-specific biomarker calibration equations to be applied in future studies. A validated sugars biomarker is critical for informed interpretation of sugars-disease association studies.

Urinary Sugars—A Biomarker of Total Sugars Intake

PubMed Central

Tasevska, Natasha

2015-01-01

Measurement error in self-reported sugars intake may explain the lack of consistency in the epidemiologic evidence on the association between sugars and disease risk. This review describes the development and applications of a biomarker of sugars intake, informs its future use and recommends directions for future research. Recently, 24 h urinary sucrose and fructose were suggested as a predictive biomarker for total sugars intake, based on findings from three highly controlled feeding studies conducted in the United Kingdom. From this work, a calibration equation for the biomarker that provides an unbiased measure of sugars intake was generated that has since been used in two US-based studies with free-living individuals to assess measurement error in dietary self-reports and to develop regression calibration equations that could be used in future diet-disease analyses. Further applications of the biomarker include its use as a surrogate measure of intake in diet-disease association studies. Although this biomarker has great potential and exhibits favorable characteristics, available data come from a few controlled studies with limited sample sizes conducted in the UK. Larger feeding studies conducted in different populations are needed to further explore biomarker characteristics and stability of its biases, compare its performance, and generate a unique, or population-specific biomarker calibration equations to be applied in future studies. A validated sugars biomarker is critical for informed interpretation of sugars-disease association studies. PMID:26184307

Characterizing Fractures Across the Astronaut Corps: Preliminary Findings from Population-Level Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossi, Meredith M.; Charvat, Jacqueline M.; Sibonga, Jean D.; Sieker, Jeremy

2017-01-01

Despite evidence of bone loss during spaceflight and the implementation of countermeasures to mitigate this loss, the subsequent risk of fracture among astronauts is not known. Multiple factors such as age, sex, fracture history, and others may combine to increase fracture risk. The purpose of this study was to describe fractures among the astronaut population and generate questions for future occupational surveillance studies.

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

DNA-Sequence Variation Among Schistosoma mekongi Populations and Related Taxa; Phylogeography and the Current Distribution of Asian Schistosomiasis

PubMed Central

Attwood, Stephen W.; Fatih, Farrah A.; Upatham, E. Suchart

2008-01-01

Background Schistosomiasis in humans along the lower Mekong River has proven a persistent public health problem in the region. The causative agent is the parasite Schistosoma mekongi (Trematoda: Digenea). A new transmission focus is reported, as well as the first study of genetic variation among S. mekongi populations. The aim is to confirm the identity of the species involved at each known focus of Mekong schistosomiasis transmission, to examine historical relationships among the populations and related taxa, and to provide data for use (a priori) in further studies of the origins, radiation, and future dispersal capabilities of S. mekongi. Methodology/Principal Findings DNA sequence data are presented for four populations of S. mekongi from Cambodia and southern Laos, three of which were distinguishable at the COI (cox1) and 12S (rrnS) mitochondrial loci sampled. A phylogeny was estimated for these populations and the other members of the Schistosoma sinensium group. The study provides new DNA sequence data for three new populations and one new locus/population combination. A Bayesian approach is used to estimate divergence dates for events within the S. sinensium group and among the S. mekongi populations. Conclusions/Significance The date estimates are consistent with phylogeographical hypotheses describing a Pliocene radiation of the S. sinensium group and a mid-Pleistocene invasion of Southeast Asia by S. mekongi. The date estimates also provide Bayesian priors for future work on the evolution of S. mekongi. The public health implications of S. mekongi transmission outside the lower Mekong River are also discussed. PMID:18350111

Individuals’ Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice

PubMed Central

Delavande, Adeline

2013-01-01

Summary Little is known about the degree to which individuals are uncertain about their future Social Security benefits, how this varies within the U.S. population, and whether this uncertainty influences financial decisions related to retirement planning. To illuminate these issues, we present empirical evidence from the Health and Retirement Study Internet Survey and document systematic variation in respondents’ uncertainty about their future Social Security benefits by individual characteristics. We find that respondents with higher levels of uncertainty about future benefits hold a smaller share of their wealth in stocks. PMID:23914049

Studies in Family Planning, Volume 3, Number 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Population Council, New York, NY.

The Commission on Population Growth and the American Future was established by Congress in March, 1970, to examine the impact of population change in the United States to the year 2000. Excerpts from their final report, submitted in March, 1972, are presented in this pamphlet. The first eight chapters focus on the present and prospective…

Hypertriglyceridemic waist might be an alternative to metabolic syndrome for predicting future diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

He, Sen; Zheng, Yi; Shu, Yan; He, Jiyun; Wang, Yong; Chen, Xiaoping

2013-01-01

In some cross-sectional studies, hypertriglyceridemic waist (HTGW) has been recommended as an alternative to metabolic syndrome (MetS) for screening individuals at high risk for diabetes mellitus (DM). However, little information is about the predictive power of HTGW for future DM. The aims of the study were to assess the DM predictive power of HTGW compared with MetS based on the follow-up data over 15 years collected from a general Chinese population. And Findings: The data were collected in 1992 and then again in 2007 from the same group of 687 individuals without DM in 1992. For the whole population (n =687), multivariate analysis showed presence of HTGW was associated with a 4.1-fold (95%CI: 2.4-7.0, p < 0.001) increased risk and presence of MetS was associated with a 3.7-fold (95%CI: 2.2-6.2, p < 0.001) increased risk for future DM. For the population without elevated fasting plasma glucose (n = 650), multivariate analysis showed presence of HTGW was associated with a 3.9-fold (95%CI: 2.2-7.0, p < 0.001) increased risk and presence of MetS was associated with a 3.7-fold (95%CI: 2.1-6.6, p < 0.001) increased risk for future DM. HTGW could predict future DM independently, and the predictive power was similar to MetS. HTGW might be an alternative to MetS for predicting future DM. For simpler and fewer components, HTGW might be more practical than MetS, and it might be recommended in most clinical practices. This finding might be more useful for the individuals who only have elevated WC and TG. Although these individuals are without MetS, they are still at high risk for future DM, similarly to the individuals with MetS.

Genetic maladaptation of coastal Douglas-fir seedlings to future climates

Treesearch

Brad St. Clair;  Glenn T. Howe

2007-01-01

Climates are expected to warm considerably over the next century, resulting in expectations that plant populations will not be adapted to future climates.We estimated the risk of maladaptation of current populations of coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to future climates as the proportion of nonoverlap between two normal...

Mindfulness-Based Interventions for Older Adults: A Review of the Effects on Physical and Emotional Well-being

PubMed Central

Geiger, Paul J.; Boggero, Ian A.; Brake, C. Alex; Caldera, Carolina A.; Combs, Hannah L.; Peters, Jessica R.; Baer, Ruth A.

2015-01-01

This comprehensive review examined the effects of mindfulness-based interventions on the physical and emotional wellbeing of older adults, a rapidly growing segment of the general population. Search procedures yielded 15 treatment outcome studies meeting inclusion criteria. Support was found for the feasibility and acceptability of mindfulness-based interventions with older adults. Physical and emotional wellbeing outcome variables offered mixed support for the use of mindfulness-based interventions with older adults. Potential explanations of mixed findings may include methodological flaws, study limitations, and inconsistent modifications of protocols. These are discussed in detail and future avenues of research are discussed, emphasizing the need to incorporate geriatric populations into future mindfulness-based empirical research. PMID:27200109

Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.

PubMed

Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Rodda, Harvey; Macadam, Ian; Sarkar, Sananda

2018-10-01

Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projection of invertebrate populations in the headwater streams of a temperate catchment under a changing climate.

PubMed

Nukazawa, Kei; Arai, Ryosuke; Kazama, So; Takemon, Yasuhiro

2018-06-14

Climate change places considerable stress on riverine ecosystems by altering flow regimes and increasing water temperature. This study evaluated how water temperature increases under climate change scenarios will affect stream invertebrates in pristine headwater streams. The studied headwater-stream sites were distributed within a temperate catchment of Japan and had similar hydraulic-geographical conditions, but were subject to varying temperature conditions due to altitudinal differences (100 to 850 m). We adopted eight general circulation models (GCMs) to project air temperature under conservative (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP4.5), and extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5) during the near (2031-2050) and far (2081-2100) future. Using the water temperature of headwater streams computed by a distributed hydrological-thermal model as a predictor variable, we projected the population density of stream invertebrates in the future scenarios based on generalized linear models. The mean decrease in the temporally averaged population density of Plecoptera was 61.3% among the GCMs, even under RCP2.6 in the near future, whereas density deteriorated even further (90.7%) under RCP8.5 in the far future. Trichoptera density was also projected to greatly deteriorate under RCP8.5 in the far future. We defined taxa that exhibited temperature-sensitive declines under climate change as cold stenotherms and found that most Plecoptera taxa were cold stenotherms in comparison to other orders. Specifically, the taxonomic families that only distribute in Palearctic realm (e.g., Megarcys ochracea and Scopura longa) were selectively assigned, suggesting that Plecoptera family with its restricted distribution in the Palearctic might be a sensitive indicator of climate change. Plecoptera and Trichoptera populations in the headwaters are expected/anticipated to decrease over the considerable geographical range of the catchment, even under the RCP2.6 in the near future. Given headwater invertebrates play important roles in streams, such as contributing to watershed productivity, our results provide useful information for managing streams at the catchment-level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population structure of giraffes is affected by management in the Great Rift Valley, Kenya

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Giraffe populations in East Africa have declined in the past thirty years yet there has been limited research on this species. This study had four objectives: i) to provide a baseline population assessment for the two largest populations of Rothschild’s giraffes in Kenya, ii) to assess whether there are differences in population structure between the two enclosed populations, iii) to assess the potential and possible implications of different management practices on enclosed giraffe populations to inform future decision-making, and iv) to add to the availability of information available about giraffes in the wild. I used individual identification to assess the size and structure of the two populations; in Soysambu Conservancy between May 2010 and January 2011, I identified 77 giraffes; in Lake Nakuru National Park between May 2011 and January 2012, I identified 89. Population structure differed significantly between the two sites; Soysambu Conservancy contained a high percentage of juveniles (34%) and subadults (29%) compared to Lake Nakuru NP, which contained fewer juveniles (5%) and subadults (15%). During the time of this study Soysambu Conservancy contained no lions while Lake Nakuru NP contained a high density of lions (30 lions per 100km2). Lions are the main predator of giraffes, and preferential predation on juvenile giraffes has previously been identified in Lake Nakuru NP. My results suggest that high lion density in Lake Nakuru NP may have influenced the structure of the giraffe population by removing juveniles and, consequently, may affect future population growth. I suggest that wildlife managers consider lion densities alongside breeding plans for Endangered species, since the presence of lions appears to influence the population structure of giraffes in enclosed habitats. PMID:29298338

Population structure of giraffes is affected by management in the Great Rift Valley, Kenya.

PubMed

Muller, Zoe

2018-01-01

Giraffe populations in East Africa have declined in the past thirty years yet there has been limited research on this species. This study had four objectives: i) to provide a baseline population assessment for the two largest populations of Rothschild's giraffes in Kenya, ii) to assess whether there are differences in population structure between the two enclosed populations, iii) to assess the potential and possible implications of different management practices on enclosed giraffe populations to inform future decision-making, and iv) to add to the availability of information available about giraffes in the wild. I used individual identification to assess the size and structure of the two populations; in Soysambu Conservancy between May 2010 and January 2011, I identified 77 giraffes; in Lake Nakuru National Park between May 2011 and January 2012, I identified 89. Population structure differed significantly between the two sites; Soysambu Conservancy contained a high percentage of juveniles (34%) and subadults (29%) compared to Lake Nakuru NP, which contained fewer juveniles (5%) and subadults (15%). During the time of this study Soysambu Conservancy contained no lions while Lake Nakuru NP contained a high density of lions (30 lions per 100km2). Lions are the main predator of giraffes, and preferential predation on juvenile giraffes has previously been identified in Lake Nakuru NP. My results suggest that high lion density in Lake Nakuru NP may have influenced the structure of the giraffe population by removing juveniles and, consequently, may affect future population growth. I suggest that wildlife managers consider lion densities alongside breeding plans for Endangered species, since the presence of lions appears to influence the population structure of giraffes in enclosed habitats.

In response to the December 2016 article entitled "Vegetarian diet and all-cause mortality: Evidence from a large population-based Australian cohort - the 45 and Up Study".

PubMed

Taylor, Nathan G A

2017-07-01

In response to the December 2016 article entitled "Vegetarian diet and all-cause mortality: Evidence from a large population-based Australian cohort - the 45 and Up Study". A brief analysis of the article with suggestions for interpretation and considerations for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Standards for reporting chronic periodontitis prevalence and severity in epidemiologic studies: Proposed standards from the Joint EU/USA Periodontal Epidemiology Working Group.

PubMed

Holtfreter, Birte; Albandar, Jasim M; Dietrich, Thomas; Dye, Bruce A; Eaton, Kenneth A; Eke, Paul I; Papapanou, Panos N; Kocher, Thomas

2015-05-01

Periodontal diseases are common and their prevalence varies in different populations. However, prevalence estimates are influenced by the methodology used, including measurement techniques, case definitions, and periodontal examination protocols, as well as differences in oral health status. As a consequence, comparisons between populations are severely hampered and inferences regarding the global variation in prevalence can hardly be drawn. To overcome these limitations, the authors suggest standardized principles for the reporting of the prevalence and severity of periodontal diseases in future epidemiological studies. These principles include the comprehensive reporting of the study design, the recording protocol, and specific subject-related and oral data. Further, a range of periodontal data should be reported in the total population and within specific age groups. Periodontal data include the prevalence and extent of clinical attachment loss (CAL) and probing depth (PD) on site and tooth level according to specific thresholds, mean CAL/PD, the CDC/AAP case definition, and bleeding on probing. Consistent implementation of these standards in future studies will ensure improved reporting quality, permit meaningful comparisons of the prevalence of periodontal diseases across populations, and provide better insights into the determinants of such variation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality. PMID:28686743

Head Trauma with or without Mild Brain Injury Increases the Risk of Future Traumatic Death: A Controlled Prospective 15-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Vaaramo, Kalle; Puljula, Jussi; Tetri, Sami; Juvela, Seppo; Hillbom, Matti

2015-10-15

Patients who have recovered from traumatic brain injury (TBI) show an increased risk of premature death. To investigate long-term mortality rates in a population admitted to the hospital for head injury (HI), we conducted a population-based prospective case-control, record-linkage study, All subjects who were living in Northern Ostrobothnia, and who were admitted to Oulu University Hospital in 1999 because of HI (n=737), and 2196 controls matched by age, gender, and residence randomly drawn from the population of Northern Ostrobothnia were included. Death rate and causes of death in HI subjects during 15 years of follow-up was compared with the general population controls. The crude mortality rates were 56.9, 18.6, and 23.8% for subjects having moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), mild TBI, and head injury without TBI, respectively. The corresponding approximate annual mortality rates were 6.7%, 1.4%, and 1.9%. All types of index HI predicted a significant risk of traumatic death in the future. Subjects who had HI without TBI had an increased risk of both death from all causes (hazard ratio 2.00; 95% confidence interval 1.57-2.55) and intentional or unintentional traumatic death (4.01, 2.20-7.30), compared with controls. The main founding was that even HI without TBI carries an increased risk of future traumatic death. The reason for this remains unknown and further studies are needed. To prevent such premature deaths, post-traumatic therapy should include an interview focusing on lifestyle factors.

Wild European apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill.) population dynamics: insight from genetics and ecology in the Rhine Valley. Priorities for a future conservation programme.

PubMed

Schnitzler, Annik; Arnold, Claire; Cornille, Amandine; Bachmann, Olivier; Schnitzler, Christophe

2014-01-01

The increasing fragmentation of forest habitats and the omnipresence of cultivars potentially threaten the genetic integrity of the European wild apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill). However, the conservation status of this species remains unclear in Europe, other than in Belgium and the Czech Republic, where it has been declared an endangered species. The population density of M. sylvestris is higher in the forests of the upper Rhine Valley (France) than in most European forests, with an unbalanced age-structure, an overrepresentation of adults and a tendency to clump. We characterize here the ecology, age-structure and genetic diversity of wild apple populations in the Rhine Valley. We use these data to highlight links to the history of this species and to propose guidelines for future conservation strategies. In total, 255 individual wild apple trees from six forest stands (five floodplain forests and one forest growing in drier conditions) were analysed in the field, collected and genotyped on the basis of data for 15 microsatellite markers. Genetic analyses showed no escaped cultivars and few hybrids with the cultivated apple. Excluding the hybrids, the genetically "pure" populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity and a weak population structure. Age-structure and ecology studies of wild apple populations identified four categories that were not randomly distributed across the forests, reflecting the history of the Rhine forest over the last century. The Rhine wild apple populations, with their ecological strategies, high genetic diversity, and weak traces of crop-to-wild gene flow associated with the history of these floodplain forests, constitute candidate populations for inclusion in future conservation programmes for European wild apple.

Wild European Apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill.) Population Dynamics: Insight from Genetics and Ecology in the Rhine Valley. Priorities for a Future Conservation Programme

PubMed Central

Schnitzler, Annik; Arnold, Claire; Cornille, Amandine; Bachmann, Olivier; Schnitzler, Christophe

2014-01-01

The increasing fragmentation of forest habitats and the omnipresence of cultivars potentially threaten the genetic integrity of the European wild apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill). However, the conservation status of this species remains unclear in Europe, other than in Belgium and the Czech Republic, where it has been declared an endangered species. The population density of M. sylvestris is higher in the forests of the upper Rhine Valley (France) than in most European forests, with an unbalanced age-structure, an overrepresentation of adults and a tendency to clump. We characterize here the ecology, age-structure and genetic diversity of wild apple populations in the Rhine Valley. We use these data to highlight links to the history of this species and to propose guidelines for future conservation strategies. In total, 255 individual wild apple trees from six forest stands (five floodplain forests and one forest growing in drier conditions) were analysed in the field, collected and genotyped on the basis of data for 15 microsatellite markers. Genetic analyses showed no escaped cultivars and few hybrids with the cultivated apple. Excluding the hybrids, the genetically “pure” populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity and a weak population structure. Age-structure and ecology studies of wild apple populations identified four categories that were not randomly distributed across the forests, reflecting the history of the Rhine forest over the last century. The Rhine wild apple populations, with their ecological strategies, high genetic diversity, and weak traces of crop-to-wild gene flow associated with the history of these floodplain forests, constitute candidate populations for inclusion in future conservation programmes for European wild apple. PMID:24827575

A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making.

PubMed

Thorstad, Robert; Wolff, Phillip

2018-02-20

We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people's thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people's tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people's tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

The Effect of the Time of Injection of Intrathecal Analgesia on the Length of Early and Advanced Labor

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-01-03

drug combinations. Intrathecal Analgesia 36 Future Studies Recommendations for future studies include a prospective randomized clinical trial to examine...second stages of labor because of the variations in client population and in clinical practice. Friedman (1978) Intrathecal Analgesia 7 however, does...that the administration of morphine into the subarchnoid space of rats produced potent analgesia (Wang, 1977). These effects were then clinically applied

The present and the future of breast cancer burden in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Ezzeldin M; Zeeneldin, Ahmed A; Sadiq, Bakr Bin; Ezzat, Adnan A

2008-01-01

Despite the low cancer incidence in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the country must be ready to face the challenge of foreseeable increase in cancer burden attributed to growth and aging of population. This work was designed to study female breast cancer as a model to assess future cancer burden and the impact on healthcare resources. Cancer statistics for the KSA were compared with that for the USA. The Joinpoint regression program was used to identify changes in secular trends, while the GLOBOCAN 2002 software projected future incidence and mortality. In the KSA, the age-standardized cancer rate (ASR) is 61 per 100,000 population, while the median age at diagnosis is 54 and 49 years for men and women, respectively. Fitting the ASR for breast cancer did not show any significant trend over a 10-year calendar period (16.2-18.2 per 100,000), a pattern that was similar to that for the USA in the prescreening mammography era. Considering the growth and aging of population and using conservative estimates for the annual percent change in incidence (increase) and mortality (decrease) by 2025, incidence and mortality cases are expected to increase by about 350% and 160%, respectively. In developing countries, future cancer rates could demonstrate a considerable increase and enormous demands on healthcare resources. The present work may provide an impetus to study other prevalent cancer types particularly in developing countries.

Competition for land

PubMed Central

Smith, Pete; Gregory, Peter J.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Obersteiner, Michael; Havlík, Petr; Rounsevell, Mark; Woods, Jeremy; Stehfest, Elke; Bellarby, Jessica

2010-01-01

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future. PMID:20713395

Racial Discrimination and Health Among Asian Americans: Evidence, Assessment, and Directions for Future Research

PubMed Central

Gee, Gilbert C.; Ro, Annie; Shariff-Marco, Salma; Chae, David

2016-01-01

Research shows that racial discrimination is related to illness among diverse racial and ethnic populations. Studies of racial discrimination and health among Asian Americans, however, remain underdeveloped. In this paper, the authors review evidence on racial discrimination and health among Asian Americans, identify gaps in the literature, and provide suggestions for future research. They identified 62 empirical articles assessing the relation between discrimination and health among Asian Americans. The majority of articles focused on mental health problems, followed by physical and behavioral problems. Most studies find that discrimination was associated with poorer health, although the most consistent findings were for mental health problems. This review suggests that future studies should continue to investigate the following: 1) the measurement of discrimination among Asian Americans, whose experiences may be qualitatively different from those of other racial minority groups; 2) the heterogeneity among Asian Americans, including those factors that are particularly salient in this population, such as ethnic ancestry and immigration history; and 3) the health implications of discrimination at multiple ecologic levels, ranging from the individual level to the structural level. PMID:19805401

Community health information sources--a survey in three disparate communities.

PubMed

Dart, Jared; Gallois, Cindy; Yellowlees, Peter

2008-02-01

To determine the current utilisation, importance, trust and future preference for contemporary sources of health information in three different socioeconomic groups. A pilot study including key informant interviews and direct observation was conducted in a low socioeconomic community. From this work a survey questionnaire was designed and implemented across three different communities. Semi-structured key informant interviews and focus groups capturing 52 respondents. Paper-based surveys were left in community organisations and local health practices in a low socioeconomic (LSE) community on the outskirts of Ipswich, Queensland, a mid-high socioeconomic (MSE) community in the western suburbs of Brisbane, and at a local university. Rank of current and preferred future sources of health information, importance and trustworthiness of health information sources. Across all three communities the local doctor was the most currently used, important, trusted and preferred future source of health information. The most striking difference between the three communities related to the current use and preferred future use of the internet. The internet was a more currently used source of health information and more important source in the university population than the LSE or MSE populations. It was also a less preferred source of future health information in the LSE population than the MSE or university populations. Importantly, currently used sources of health information did not reflect community members' preferred sources of health information. People in different socioeconomic communities obtain health information from various sources. This may reflect access issues, education and awareness of the internet as a source of health information, less health information seeking as well as a reluctance by the e-health community to address the specific needs of this group.

Neurofeedback as a form of cognitive rehabilitation therapy following stroke: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Tibbles, Alana; Topolovec-Vranic, Jane

2017-01-01

Neurofeedback therapy (NFT) has been used within a number of populations however it has not been applied or thoroughly examined as a form of cognitive rehabilitation within a stroke population. Objectives for this systematic review included: i) identifying how NFT is utilized to treat cognitive deficits following stroke, ii) examining the strength and quality of evidence to support the use of NFT as a form of cognitive rehabilitation therapy (CRT) and iii) providing recommendations for future investigations. Searches were conducted using OVID (Medline, Health Star, Embase + Embase Classic) and PubMed databases. Additional searches were completed using the Cochrane Reviews library database, Google Scholar, the University of Toronto online library catalogue, ClinicalTrials.gov website and select journals. Searches were completed Feb/March 2015 and updated in June/July/Aug 2015. Eight studies were eligible for inclusion in this review. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they: i) were specific to a stroke population, ii) delivered CRT via a NFT protocol, iii) included participants who were affected by a cognitive deficit(s) following stroke (i.e. memory loss, loss of executive function, speech impairment etc.). NFT protocols were highly specific and varied within each study. The majority of studies identified improvements in participant cognitive deficits following the initiation of therapy. Reviewers assessed study quality using the Downs and Black Checklist for Measuring Study Quality tool; limited study quality and strength of evidence restricted generalizability of conclusions regarding the use of this therapy to the greater stroke population. Progression in this field requires further inquiry to strengthen methodology quality and study design. Future investigations should aim to standardize NFT protocols in an effort to understand the dose-response relationship between NFT and improvements in functional outcome. Future investigations should also place a large emphasis on long-term participant follow-up. PMID:28510578

Neurofeedback as a form of cognitive rehabilitation therapy following stroke: A systematic review.

PubMed

Renton, Tian; Tibbles, Alana; Topolovec-Vranic, Jane

2017-01-01

Neurofeedback therapy (NFT) has been used within a number of populations however it has not been applied or thoroughly examined as a form of cognitive rehabilitation within a stroke population. Objectives for this systematic review included: i) identifying how NFT is utilized to treat cognitive deficits following stroke, ii) examining the strength and quality of evidence to support the use of NFT as a form of cognitive rehabilitation therapy (CRT) and iii) providing recommendations for future investigations. Searches were conducted using OVID (Medline, Health Star, Embase + Embase Classic) and PubMed databases. Additional searches were completed using the Cochrane Reviews library database, Google Scholar, the University of Toronto online library catalogue, ClinicalTrials.gov website and select journals. Searches were completed Feb/March 2015 and updated in June/July/Aug 2015. Eight studies were eligible for inclusion in this review. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they: i) were specific to a stroke population, ii) delivered CRT via a NFT protocol, iii) included participants who were affected by a cognitive deficit(s) following stroke (i.e. memory loss, loss of executive function, speech impairment etc.). NFT protocols were highly specific and varied within each study. The majority of studies identified improvements in participant cognitive deficits following the initiation of therapy. Reviewers assessed study quality using the Downs and Black Checklist for Measuring Study Quality tool; limited study quality and strength of evidence restricted generalizability of conclusions regarding the use of this therapy to the greater stroke population. Progression in this field requires further inquiry to strengthen methodology quality and study design. Future investigations should aim to standardize NFT protocols in an effort to understand the dose-response relationship between NFT and improvements in functional outcome. Future investigations should also place a large emphasis on long-term participant follow-up.

CLU rs2279590 polymorphism contributes to Alzheimer's disease susceptibility in Caucasian and Asian populations.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuyan; Zhang, Donghui; Jiang, Yongshuai; Wu, Lina; Shang, Hong; Liu, Jiafeng; Feng, Rennan; Liao, Mingzhi; Zhang, Liangcai; Liu, Yong; Liu, Guiyou; Li, Keshen

2015-03-01

It is reported that CLU rs2279590 polymorphism is significantly associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD) in European ancestry. Recent studies investigated rs2279590 polymorphism in Asian population (Chinese, Japanese and Korean). Four studies showed negative association and two studies showed weak association between rs2279590 and AD. We believe that the weak association or no association may be caused by the relatively small sample size in Asian population. Here, we reinvestigated the association in Asian population. Meanwhile, to investigate the genetic heterogeneity of the rs2279590 polymorphism in Asian and Caucasian populations, we searched the PubMed and AlzGene databases and selected 11 independent studies (6 studies in Asian population and 5 studies in Caucasian population) including 20,655 individuals (8,605 cases and 12,050 controls) for meta-analysis. Our results showed significant association between rs2279590 polymorphism and AD in Asian population with P = 2.00E-04 and P = 2.00E-04 using additive and recessive models, respectively. We observed no significant heterogeneity between Asian and Caucasian populations. We believe that our results may be helpful to understand the mechanisms of CLU in AD pathogenesis and will be useful for future genetic studies in AD.

Success in School for Justice-Involved Girls: Do Specific Aspects of Developmental Immaturity Matter?

PubMed Central

Haney-Caron, Emily; Goldstein, Naomi E. S.; Giallella, Christy L.; Kemp, Kathleen; Romaine, Christina Riggs

2016-01-01

Developmental immaturity (DI) may help explain some of the variability in aspects of academic achievement among girls in the juvenile justice system, a population with high rates of truancy, dropout, and school failure. This study examined the relationships among the decision making and independent functioning components of DI, verbal intelligence, and academic achievement within this population. Using data from 60 girls in residential juvenile justice facilities, multiple regression analyses indicated that verbal IQ moderated the relationship between the DI construct of decision making and academic achievement. Self-reported school attendance and number of previous arrests did not significantly mediate the relationship between DI and academic achievement. These results may indicate that the decision-making factor of DI may be particularly important, and, if results are replicated, future intervention efforts could focus more on improving this skill within this juvenile justice population. Additionally, the overall importance of the full DI construct is an important area of future study. PMID:28082833

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S

PubMed Central

Terando, Adam J.; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires. PMID:25054329

U.S. truck driver anthropometric study and multivariate anthropometric models for cab designs.

PubMed

Guan, Jinhua; Hsiao, Hongwei; Bradtmiller, Bruce; Kau, Tsui-Ying; Reed, Matthew R; Jahns, Steven K; Loczi, Josef; Hardee, H Lenora; Piamonte, Dominic Paul T

2012-10-01

This study presents data from a large-scale anthropometric study of U.S. truck drivers and the multivariate anthropometric models developed for the design of next-generation truck cabs. Up-to-date anthropometric information of the U.S. truck driver population is needed for the design of safe and ergonomically efficient truck cabs. We collected 35 anthropometric dimensions for 1,950 truck drivers (1,779 males and 171 females) across the continental United States using a sampling plan designed to capture the appropriate ethnic, gender, and age distributions of the truck driver population. Truck drivers are heavier than the U.S.general population, with a difference in mean body weight of 13.5 kg for males and 15.4 kg for females. They are also different in physique from the U.S. general population. In addition, the current truck drivers are heavier and different in physique compared to their counterparts of 25 to 30 years ago. The data obtained in this study provide more accurate anthropometric information for cab designs than do the current U.S. general population data or truck driver data collected 25 to 30 years ago. Multivariate anthropometric models, spanning 95% of the current truck driver population on the basis of a set of 12 anthropometric measurements, have been developed to facilitate future cab designs. The up-to-date truck driver anthropometric data and multivariate anthropometric models will benefit the design of future truck cabs which, in turn, will help promote the safety and health of the U.S. truck drivers.

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-01-01

Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate-Magnitude and Determinants.

PubMed

Åström, Christofer; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Andersson, Camilla; Ebi, Kristie L; Forsberg, Bertil

2017-07-07

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.

Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants

PubMed Central

Åström, Christofer; Oudin Åström, Daniel; Andersson, Camilla; L. Ebi, Kristie; Forsberg, Bertil

2017-01-01

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge. PMID:28686197

Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramírez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

2017-12-01

Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources: population growth reduces the land and water per person; and adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person. This study shows potentials of global food supply by linking food demand drivers with national land and water availability. Whether the available land and water is enough to meet national food demand was calculated for 187 countries. The calculations were performed for the past situation (1960 and 2010) and to assess four future scenarios (2050) to discuss different paths of diets, population numbers and agricultural expansion. Inclusion of the demand perspective in the analysis has shown stronger challenges for future global food supply than have other studies. The results show that with the "business as usual" scenario, 40% of the global population in 2050 will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their population. Restriction to basic diets will be the most effective in lowering both land and water constraints. Our results identify both food production and food demand factors, and the regions that may experience the strongest challenges in 2050.

Scandinavian epidemiological research in gastroenterology and hepatology.

PubMed

Björnsson, Einar S; Ekbom, Anders

2015-06-01

In the last decades, a large number of epidemiological studies in gastroenterology and hepatology have originated from the Scandinavian countries. With the help of large health databases, with good validity and other registries related to patient outcomes, researchers from the Scandinavian countries have been able to make some very important contributions to the field. These countries, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Iceland, have all universal access to health care and have shown to be ideal for epidemiological research. Population-based studies have been frequent and follow-up studies have been able to describe the temporal trends and changes in phenotypes. Our ability in Scandinavia to follow up defined groups of patients over time has been crucial to learn the natural history of many gastrointestinal and liver diseases and often in a population-based setting. Patient-related outcomes measures will probably gain increasing importance in the future, but Scandinavian gastroenterologists and surgeons are likely to have a better infrastructure for such endeavors compared to most other populations. Thus, there is a bright future for international competitive research within the field of gastrointestinal and liver diseases in Scandinavia.

Is diabetes color-blind? Growth of prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children through 2030.

PubMed

Adepoju, Omolola E; Bolin, Jane N; Booth, Eric A; Zhao, Hongwei; Lin, Szu-Hsuan; Phillips, Charles D; Ohsfeldt, Robert L

2015-06-01

Diabetes knows no age and affects millions of individuals. Preventing diabetes in children is increasingly becoming a major health policy concern and focus. The objective of this study is to project the number of children, aged 0-17 years, with diagnosed diabetes in the United States through 2030, accounting for changing demography, and diabetes and obesity prevalence rates. The study team combined historic diabetes and obesity prevalence data with US child population estimates and projections. A times-series regression model was used to forecast future diabetes prevalence and to account for the relationship between the forecasted diabetes prevalence and the lagged prevalence of childhood obesity. Overall, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 67% from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2030. Lagged obesity prevalence in Hispanic boys and non-Hispanic black girls was significantly associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. The study results showed that a 1% increase in obesity prevalence among Hispanic boys from the previous year was significantly associated with a 0.005% increase in future prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children (P ≤ 0.01). Likewise, a unit increase in obesity prevalence among non-Hispanic black girls was associated with a 0.003% increase in future diabetes prevalence (P < 0.05). Obesity rates for other race/ethnicity combinations were not associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. To mitigate the continued threat posed by diabetes, serious discussions need to focus on the pediatric population, particularly non-Hispanic black girls and Hispanic boys whose obesity trends show the strongest associations with future diabetes prevalence in children.

Income-based projections of water footprint of food consumption in Uzbekistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djanibekov, Nodir; Frohberg, Klaus; Djanibekov, Utkur

2013-11-01

Assessing future water requirements for feeding the growing population of Central Asia can improve understanding of the projected water supply scenarios in the region. Future water requirements will be partially determined by the dietary habits of the populations, and are thus responsive to significant variation of income levels. Using Uzbekistan as an example, this study projects the water footprints of income driven changes on the population's diet in Central Asia. To reveal the influence of large income changes on dietary habits a Normalized Quadratic-Quadratic Expenditure System was calibrated and applied to data from 2009. The national water footprints of food consumption in Uzbekistan were projected until 2034 by applying the parameterized demand system to estimate the respective water footprint values. The results showed that for Uzbekistan the projected increase in the food consumption water footprint would be primarily linked to income growth rather than population growth. Due to the high water footprint of common food products, the composition of the population's diet, and responsiveness to income, economic growth is expected to put greater pressure on water resources in Uzbekistan unless proper measures are undertaken.

Biobjective planning of an active debris removal mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madakat, Dalal; Morio, Jérôme; Vanderpooten, Daniel

2013-03-01

The growth of the orbital debris population has been a concern to the international space community for several years. Recent studies have shown that the debris environment in Low Earth Orbit (LEO, defined as the region up to 2000 km altitude) has reached a point where the debris population will continue to increase even if all future launches are suspended. As the orbits of these objects often overlap the trajectories of satellites, debris create a potential collision risk. However, several studies show that about 5 objects per year should be removed in order to keep the future LEO environment stable. In this article, we propose a biobjective time dependent traveling salesman problem (BiTDTSP) model for the problem of optimally removing debris and use a branch and bound approach to deal with it.

Genetic diversity and genetic structure of an endemic Mexican Dusky Rattlesnake (Crotalus triseriatus) in a highly modified agricultural landscape: implications for conservation.

PubMed

Sunny, Armando; Monroy-Vilchis, Octavio; Zarco-González, Martha M; Mendoza-Martínez, Germán David; Martínez-Gómez, Daniel

2015-12-01

It is necessary to determine genetic diversity of fragmented populations in highly modified landscapes to understand how populations respond to land-use change. This information will help guide future conservation and management strategies. We conducted a population genetic study on an endemic Mexican Dusky Rattlesnake (Crotalus triseriatus) in a highly modified landscape near the Toluca metropolitan area, in order to provide crucial information for the conservation of this species. There was medium levels of genetic diversity, with a few alleles and genotypes. We identified three genetically differentiated clusters, likely as a result of different habitat cover type. We also found evidence of an ancestral genetic bottleneck and medium values of effective population size. Inbreeding coefficients were low and there was a moderate gene flow. Our results can be used as a basis for future research and C. triseriatus conservation efforts, particularly considering that the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt is heavily impacted by destructive land-use practices.

Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1983 to 2080.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer, Gregory

1984-01-01

Based on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and net immigration trends, statistical tables depict the future U.S. population by age, sex, and race. Figures are based on the July 1, 1982, population estimates and race definitions and are projected using the cohort-component method with alternative assumptions for future fertility, mortality,…

[HLA A, B, C and DR antigens in a urban population from Santiago of Chile].

PubMed

Rodríguez, L; Scagliotti, P; Quiroga, T

1993-05-01

HLA antigens vary in different ethnical groups and in Chile there are no reports on the frequency of these antigens in a normal representative population. The few existing studies are of indigenous populations and control groups, without including HLA-DR antigens. Therefore, the aim of this study was to study the frequency of HLA A, B and C antigens in 349 individuals and HLA-DR in 257, using the microlymphocytotoxicity method, and compared the results with those on normal caucasian populations (Europe and USA). Significant differences were found for 7 antigens of group A, 10 of group B, 4 of group C and 6 of group DR. The observed difference allow us to conclude that the population from Santiago has a distinct HLA antigen distribution. This fact must be bore in mind future studies in genetics, paternity or autoimmune diseases.

Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; McGregor, Glenn

2008-11-01

Because the state of the atmosphere determines the development, transport, dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants, there is concern that climate change could affect morbidity and mortality associated with elevated concentrations of these gases and fine particles. We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health. We review studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and studies projecting the impacts of these changes on morbidity and mortality. Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty include the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given these uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, which would increase morbidity and mortality. Few projections are available for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, primarily because few studies have been conducted. Additional research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution-related health impacts. If improved models continue to project higher ozone concentrations with climate change, then reducing greenhouse gas emissions would enhance the health of current and future generations.

Simulating range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adam Duarte,; Hatfield, Jeffrey; Todd M. Swannack,; Michael R. J. Forstner,; M. Clay Green,; Floyd W. Weckerly,

2015-01-01

Population viability analyses provide a quantitative approach that seeks to predict the possible future status of a species of interest under different scenarios and, therefore, can be important components of large-scale species’ conservation programs. We created a model and simulated range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler, the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia). Habitat-transition probabilities were estimated across the warbler's breeding range by combining National Land Cover Database imagery with multistate modeling. Using these estimates, along with recently published demographic estimates, we examined if the species can remain viable into the future given the current conditions. Lastly, we evaluated if protecting a greater amount of habitat would increase the number of warblers that can be supported in the future by systematically increasing the amount of protected habitat and comparing the estimated terminal carrying capacity at the end of 50 years of simulated habitat change. The estimated habitat-transition probabilities supported the hypothesis that habitat transitions are unidirectional, whereby habitat is more likely to diminish than regenerate. The model results indicated population viability could be achieved under current conditions, depending on dispersal. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the population projections due to parametric uncertainty. Model results suggested that increasing the amount of protected lands would have a substantial impact on terminal carrying capacities at the end of a 50-year simulation. Notably, this study identifies the need for collecting the data required to estimate demographic parameters in relation to changes in habitat metrics and population density in multiple regions, and highlights the importance of establishing a common definition of what constitutes protected habitat, what management goals are suitable within those protected areas, and a standard operating procedure to identify areas of priority for habitat conservation efforts. Therefore, we suggest future efforts focus on these aspects of golden-cheeked warbler conservation and ecology.

Genetic diversity is related to climatic variation and vulnerability in threatened bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kovach, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Whited, Diane C.; DeHaan, Patrick W.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Luikart, Gordon

2015-01-01

Understanding how climatic variation influences ecological and evolutionary processes is crucial for informed conservation decision-making. Nevertheless, few studies have measured how climatic variation influences genetic diversity within populations or how genetic diversity is distributed across space relative to future climatic stress. Here, we tested whether patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness) were related to climatic variation and habitat features in 130 bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations from 24 watersheds (i.e., ~4–7th order river subbasins) across the Columbia River Basin, USA. We then determined whether bull trout genetic diversity was related to climate vulnerability at the watershed scale, which we quantified on the basis of exposure to future climatic conditions (projected scenarios for the 2040s) and existing habitat complexity. We found a strong gradient in genetic diversity in bull trout populations across the Columbia River Basin, where populations located in the most upstream headwater areas had the greatest genetic diversity. After accounting for spatial patterns with linear mixed models, allelic richness in bull trout populations was positively related to habitat patch size and complexity, and negatively related to maximum summer temperature and the frequency of winter flooding. These relationships strongly suggest that climatic variation influences evolutionary processes in this threatened species and that genetic diversity will likely decrease due to future climate change. Vulnerability at a watershed scale was negatively correlated with average genetic diversity (r = −0.77;P < 0.001); watersheds containing populations with lower average genetic diversity generally had the lowest habitat complexity, warmest stream temperatures, and greatest frequency of winter flooding. Together, these findings have important conservation implications for bull trout and other imperiled species. Genetic diversity is already depressed where climatic vulnerability is highest; it will likely erode further in the very places where diversity may be most needed for future persistence.

Big-leaf mahogany Swietenia macrophylla population dynamics and implications for sustainable management

Treesearch

James Grogan; R. Matthew Landis; Christopher M. Free; Mark D. Schulze; Marco Lentini; Mark S. Ashton

2014-01-01

Summary 1. The impacts of selective harvesting in tropical forests on population recovery and future timber yields by high-value species remain largely unknown for lack of demographic data spanning all phases of life history, from seed to senescence. In this study, we use an individual- based model parameterized using 15 years of annual census data to simulate...

Towards population-level conservation in the critically endangered Antarctic blue whale: the number and distribution of their populations

PubMed Central

Attard, Catherine R. M.; Beheregaray, Luciano B.; Möller, Luciana M.

2016-01-01

Population-level conservation is required to prevent biodiversity loss within a species, but it first necessitates determining the number and distribution of populations. Many whale populations are still depleted due to 20th century whaling. Whales are one of the most logistically difficult and expensive animals to study because of their mobility, pelagic lifestyle and often remote habitat. We tackle the question of population structure in the Antarctic blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia) – a critically endangered subspecies and the largest extant animal – by capitalizing on the largest genetic dataset to date for Antarctic blue whales. We found evidence of three populations that are sympatric in the Antarctic feeding grounds and likely occupy separate breeding grounds. Our study adds to knowledge of population structure in the Antarctic blue whale. Future research should invest in locating the breeding grounds and migratory routes of Antarctic blue whales through satellite telemetry to confirm their population structure and allow population-level conservation. PMID:26951747

Towards population-level conservation in the critically endangered Antarctic blue whale: the number and distribution of their populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attard, Catherine R. M.; Beheregaray, Luciano B.; Möller, Luciana M.

2016-03-01

Population-level conservation is required to prevent biodiversity loss within a species, but it first necessitates determining the number and distribution of populations. Many whale populations are still depleted due to 20th century whaling. Whales are one of the most logistically difficult and expensive animals to study because of their mobility, pelagic lifestyle and often remote habitat. We tackle the question of population structure in the Antarctic blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia) - a critically endangered subspecies and the largest extant animal - by capitalizing on the largest genetic dataset to date for Antarctic blue whales. We found evidence of three populations that are sympatric in the Antarctic feeding grounds and likely occupy separate breeding grounds. Our study adds to knowledge of population structure in the Antarctic blue whale. Future research should invest in locating the breeding grounds and migratory routes of Antarctic blue whales through satellite telemetry to confirm their population structure and allow population-level conservation.

Future animal improvement programs applied to global populations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Breeding programs evolved gradually from within-herd phenotypic selection to local and regional cooperatives to national evaluations and now international evaluations. In the future, breeders may adapt reproductive, computational, and genomic methods to global populations as easily as with national ...

The future population and the future labour force.

PubMed

Young, C

1994-01-01

"The combination of two recent publications by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides a useful insight into feasible future trends in the population, the labour force and dependency ratios. In addition, earlier ABS census data and its regular publications from the Labour Force Surveys clarify the historical trends in the relative number of dependants and nondependants. These various sources of data are brought together in this paper.... Official population projections...highlight the fact that the combination of annual zero net migration and 10 per cent below replacement fertility would not produce an immediate decline in Australia's population.... The conventional labour-force dependency ratio suggests that the dependency situation in Australia in 2041 will be no worse than it was in the early 1980s." excerpt

Optimal designs for population pharmacokinetic studies of the partner drugs co-administered with artemisinin derivatives in patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Jamsen, Kris M; Duffull, Stephen B; Tarning, Joel; Lindegardh, Niklas; White, Nicholas J; Simpson, Julie A

2012-07-11

Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is currently recommended as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria, but of concern, it has been observed that the effectiveness of the main artemisinin derivative, artesunate, has been diminished due to parasite resistance. This reduction in effect highlights the importance of the partner drugs in ACT and provides motivation to gain more knowledge of their pharmacokinetic (PK) properties via population PK studies. Optimal design methodology has been developed for population PK studies, which analytically determines a sampling schedule that is clinically feasible and yields precise estimation of model parameters. In this work, optimal design methodology was used to determine sampling designs for typical future population PK studies of the partner drugs (mefloquine, lumefantrine, piperaquine and amodiaquine) co-administered with artemisinin derivatives. The optimal designs were determined using freely available software and were based on structural PK models from the literature and the key specifications of 100 patients with five samples per patient, with one sample taken on the seventh day of treatment. The derived optimal designs were then evaluated via a simulation-estimation procedure. For all partner drugs, designs consisting of two sampling schedules (50 patients per schedule) with five samples per patient resulted in acceptable precision of the model parameter estimates. The sampling schedules proposed in this paper should be considered in future population pharmacokinetic studies where intensive sampling over many days or weeks of follow-up is not possible due to either ethical, logistic or economical reasons.

The Impact of Neighborhood Social and Built Environment Factors across the Cancer Continuum: Current Research, Methodologic Considerations, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Shariff-Marco, Salma; De Rouen, Mindy; Keegan, Theresa H. M.; Yen, Irene H.; Mujahid, Mahasin; Satariano, William A.; Glaser, Sally L.

2015-01-01

Neighborhood social and built environments have been recognized as important contexts in which health is shaped. We review the extent to which these neighborhood factors have been addressed in population-level cancer research, with a scan of the literature for research that focuses on specific social and/or built environment characteristics and association with outcomes across the cancer continuum, including incidence, diagnosis, treatment, survivorship, and survival. We discuss commonalities and differences in methodologies across studies, current challenges in research methodology, and future directions in this research area. The assessment of social and built environment factors in relation to cancer is a relatively new field, with 82% of 34 reviewed papers published since 2010. Across the wide range of social and built environment exposures and cancer outcomes considered by the studies, numerous associations were reported. However, the directions and magnitudes of association varied, due in large part to the variation in cancer sites and outcomes being studied, but also likely due to differences in study populations, geographical region, and, importantly, choice of neighborhood measure and geographic scale. We recommend that future studies consider the life course implications of cancer incidence and survival, integrate secondary and self-report data, consider work neighborhood environments, and further develop analytical and statistical approaches appropriate to the geospatial and multilevel nature of the data. Incorporating social and built environment factors into research on cancer etiology and outcomes can provide insights into disease processes, identify vulnerable populations, and generate results with translational impact of relevance for interventionists and policy makers. PMID:25847484

Fire evolution in the radioactive forests of Ukraine and Belarus: future risks for the population and the environment

Treesearch

N. Evangeliou; Y. Balkanski; A. Cozic; WeiMin Hao; F. Mouillot; K. Thonicke; R. Paugam; S. Zibtsev; T. A. Mousseau; R. Wang; B. Poulter; A. Petkov; C. Yue; P. Cadule; B. Koffi; J. W. Kaiser; A. P. Moller

2015-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the current and future status of forests in Ukraine and Belarus that were contaminated after the nuclear disaster in 1986. Using several models, together with remote-sensing data and observations, we studied how climate change in these forests may affect fire regimes. We investigated the possibility of 137Cs displacement over Europe...

Recent Studies on Feeding Problems in Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Volkert, Valerie M.; Vaz, Petula C. M.

2010-01-01

This paper reviews recent studies on behavioral interventions for children with autism and feeding problems. The applicability of interventions that have been tested with other populations of children with feeding problems is discussed, as well as directions for future research.

U.S. population policy.

PubMed

Piotrow, P T

1993-06-01

Some of the history and special features of the US population assistance program administered by USAID are recounted. Future predictions are also made for funding and new directions for the US population assistance program and environmental issues. The topics addressed were part of a talk given in 1992 at a meeting of the Council on Population Education held in Tokyo. Credit is given to Japan for its contribution to family planning (FP) efforts by setting an example of reducing population size within a decade and providing financial support internationally. Japan's example so impressed General William H. Draper, Jr. that he worked for the establishment of the USAID and the UN Population Fund, and funding for the International Planned Parenthood Federation. He encouraged Japanese officials to provide support for international population and (FP) programs. Currently, the US provides $350 million in population assistance. Encouragement was given for Japan to increase its international commitment of $80 million and to contribute to the Johns Hopkins University William H. Draper, Jr., fellowship fund for graduate students from developing countries to study modern health communication. The special features of the US population assistance program were identified as follows: 1) high funding levels, 2) availability of FP services, 3) adequate contraceptive supplies, 4) availability of professional population staff, and 5) an emphasis on data and evaluation. The single most important element of the USAID program is the reliance on private, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), which can establish flexible, independent, innovative and cost- effective programs. Predictions for the future were that the US Congress would expand overseas population assistance. Domestic policy will have priority, and the future will depend on who occupies the key policy positions at the State Department and USAID. THere will be more emphasis on free political elections, on humanitarian issues, and on environmental issues. New directions will be to increase funding, reduce restrictions on population assistance, increase support for NGOs, expand FP communication programs, improve the quality of FP services, increase distribution of condoms, and increase coordination among donors. The enter educate approach to promoting FP is described.

Demographics of Investigators Involved in OSSA-Funded Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stern, S. Alan; Konkel, Ronald; Habegger, Jay; Byerly, Radford, Jr.

1991-01-01

The birth of the U.S. civil space program and the subsequent, dramatic growth in the ranks of the space science research population occurred in the 1950s and 1960s'. The large, post- Sputnik/ Apollo buildup in space program manpower is now approximately one career-lifetime in the past. It is therefore natural to anticipate that a large fraction of the space program engineers, scientists, and managers who pioneered the early exploration of space are approaching retirement. Such a "retirement wave" bodes both a loss of manpower and, more fundamentally, a loss of experience from the civil-space manpower base. Such losses could play a critical role constraining in NASA's ability to expand or maintain its technical capabilities. If this indeed applies to the NASA space science research population, then the potential for problems is exacerbated by the anticipated growth in flight rates, data volume, and data-set diversity which will accompany the planned expansion in the OSSA science effort during the 1990s and 2000s. The purpose of this study was to describe the OSSA PI/Co-I population and to determine the degree to which the OSSA space science investigator population faces a retirement wave, and to estimate the future population of PIs in the 1990-2010 era. To conduct such a study, we investigated the present demographics of the PI and Co-1 population contained in the NASA/OSSA Announcement of Opportunity (AO) mailing list. PIs represent the "leadership" class of the OSSA scientific researcher population, and Co-Is represent one important, oncoming component of the "replacement" generation. Using the PI population data, we then make projection estimates of the future PI population from 1991 through 2010, under various NASA growth/PI demand scenarios.

Topographic, latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chardon, Nathalie I.; Cornwell, William K.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Ackerly, David D.

2015-01-01

With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid-latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low-elevation stands occupy north-facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high-elevation stands grow on more south-facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low-lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri, the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.

The future of dream science.

PubMed

Bulkeley, Kelly

2017-10-01

This article describes the future prospects of scientific dream research. Three frontiers of investigation hold special promise: neuroscientific studies of the brain-mind system's activities during sleep (such as during lucid dreaming); systematic analyses of large collections of dream reports from diverse populations of people; and psychotherapeutic explorations of the multiple dimensions of personal and collective meaning woven into the dream experiences of each individual. Several helpful books on the science of sleep and dreaming are mentioned for further study. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

Wealth from Health: an incentive program for disease and population management: a 12-year project.

PubMed

Ratner, D; Louria, D; Sheffet, A; Fain, R; Curran, J; Saed, N; Bhaskar, S; Quereshi, M; Cable, G

2001-01-01

The future of healthcare is linked with its ability to face the challenges of consumerism. Disease and population management will represent the dominant style of healthcare delivery in the future. This article describes the Wealth from Health programs which utilize current and future technologies to help the healthcare system become a leader in healthcare delivery and to assist many communities at an affordable cost.

User Experience Evaluation of a Smoking Cessation App in People With Serious Mental Illness

PubMed Central

Rizo, Javier; Kientz, Julie A.; McDonell, Michael G.; Ries, Richard K.; Sobel, Kiley

2016-01-01

Introduction: Smoking rates among people with serious mental illness are 3 to 4 times higher than the general population, yet currently there are no smoking cessation apps specifically designed to address this need. We report the results of a User Experience (UX) evaluation of a National Cancer Institute smoking cessation app, QuitPal, and provide user centered design data that can be used to tailor smoking cessation apps for this population. Methods: Two hundred forty hours of field experience with QuitPal, 10 hours of recorded interviews and task performances, usage logs and a self-reported usability scale, informed the results of our study. Participants were five individuals recruited from a community mental health clinic with a reported serious mental illness history. Performance, self-reports, usage logs and interview data were triangulated to identify critical usability errors and UX themes emerging from this population. Results: Data suggests QuitPal has below average levels of usability, elevated time on task performances and required considerable amounts of guidance. UX themes provided critical information to tailor smoking cessation apps for this population, such as the importance of breaking down “cessation” into smaller steps and use of a reward system. Conclusions: This is the first study to examine the UX of a smoking cessation app among people with serious mental illness. Data from this study will inform future research efforts to expand the effectiveness and reach of smoking cessation apps for this highly nicotine dependent yet under-served population. Implications: Data from this study will inform future research efforts to expand the effectiveness and reach of smoking cessation apps for people with serious mental illness, a highly nicotine dependent yet under-served population. PMID:26581430

Investigation of potential sea level rise impact on the Nile Delta, Egypt using digital elevation models.

PubMed

Hasan, Emad; Khan, Sadiq Ibrahim; Hong, Yang

2015-10-01

In this study, the future impact of Sea Level Rise (SLR) on the Nile Delta region in Egypt is assessed by evaluating the elevations of two freely available Digital Elevation Models (DEMs): the SRTM and the ASTER-GDEM-V2. The SLR is a significant worldwide dilemma that has been triggered by recent climatic changes. In Egypt, the Nile Delta is projected to face SLR of 1 m by the end of the 21th century. In order to provide a more accurate assessment of the future SLR impact on Nile Delta's land and population, this study corrected the DEM's elevations by using linear regression model with ground elevations from GPS survey. The information for the land cover types and future population numbers were derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover and the Gridded Population of the Worlds (GPWv3) datasets respectively. The DEM's vertical accuracies were assessed using GPS measurements and the uncertainty analysis revealed that the SRTM-DEM has positive bias of 2.5 m, while the ASTER-GDEM-V2 showed a positive bias of 0.8 m. The future inundated land cover areas and the affected population were illustrated based on two SLR scenarios of 0.5 m and 1 m. The SRTM DEM data indicated that 1 m SLR will affect about 3900 km(2) of cropland, 1280 km(2) of vegetation, 205 km(2) of wetland, 146 km(2) of urban areas and cause more than 6 million people to lose their houses. The overall vulnerability assessment using ASTER-GDEM-V2 indicated that the influence of SLR will be intense and confined along the coastal areas. For instance, the data indicated that 1 m SLR will inundate about 580 Km(2) (6%) of the total land cover areas and approximately 887 thousand people will be relocated. Accordingly, the uncertainty analysis of the DEM's elevations revealed that the ASTER-GDEM-V2 dataset product was considered the best to determine the future impact of SLR on the Nile Delta region.

Predicting Population Curves.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bunton, Matt

2003-01-01

Uses graphs to involve students in inquiry-based population investigations on the Wisconsin gray wolf. Requires students to predict future changes in the wolf population, carrying capacity, and deer population. (YDS)

A study of automotive workers anthropometric physical characteristics from Mexico Northwest.

PubMed

Lucero-Duarte, Karla; de la Vega-Bustillos, Enrique; López-Millán, Francisco

2012-01-01

Due to the lack of anthropometric information in northwest Mexico, we did an anthropometric study that represents the population physical characteristics and that is reliable for the design or redesign of workstations. The study was divided in two phases. The first one was the anthropometric study of 2900 automotive industry workers in northwest of Mexico. The study includes 40 body dimensions of 2345 males and 555 females personalized to be used in future researches. Second phase includes compared anthropometric characteristics of population reported in four Mexican studies and a Colombian study against the current study. Benefits of this project are: a reliable database of anthropometric characteristic of automotive industry population for workstations design or redesign that match with the users, increase product quality and reduce economic, medical and union complains.

Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, K. L.; Prein, A. F.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.

2017-11-01

Novel high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the US employing the pseudo-global warming approach are used to investigate changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in a future climate. Two continuous 13-year simulations were conducted using (1) ERA-Interim reanalysis and (2) ERA-Interim reanalysis plus a climate perturbation for the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulations adequately reproduce the observed precipitation diurnal cycle, indicating that they capture organized and propagating convection that most climate models cannot adequately represent. This study shows that weak to moderate convection will decrease and strong convection will increase in frequency in a future climate. Analysis of the thermodynamic environments supporting convection shows that both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increase downstream of the Rockies in a future climate. Previous studies suggest that CAPE will increase in a warming climate, however a corresponding increase in CIN acts as a balancing force to shift the convective population by suppressing weak to moderate convection and provides an environment where CAPE can build to extreme levels that may result in more frequent severe convection. An idealized investigation of fundamental changes in the thermodynamic environment was conducted by shifting a standard atmospheric profile by ± 5 °C. When temperature is increased, both CAPE and CIN increase in magnitude, while the opposite is true for decreased temperatures. Thus, even in the absence of synoptic and mesoscale variations, a warmer climate will provide more CAPE and CIN that will shift the convective population, likely impacting water and energy budgets on Earth.

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range-edge populations.

PubMed

Rehm, Evan M; Olivas, Paulo; Stroud, James; Feeley, Kenneth J

2015-10-01

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range-edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range-edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range-edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range-core populations. We also highlight how large-scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest-cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range-edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range-edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

78 FR 43123 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 6-Month Extension of Final Determinations on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-19

...; (4) Projections for future residential development and human population growth within Gunnison sage.... Specifically, commenters suggested that we may have overestimated the amount of future growth in human... population trends. Specifically, some scientists [[Page 43124

Sleep Disturbances in Adolescents with ADHD: A Systematic Review and Framework for Future Research

PubMed Central

Lunsford-Avery, Jessica R.; Krystal, Andrew D.; Kollins, Scott H.

2016-01-01

Background Biological mechanisms underlying symptom and prognostic heterogeneity in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) are unclear. Sleep impacts neurocognition and daytime functioning and is disrupted in ADHD, yet little is known about sleep in ADHD during adolescence, a period characterized by alterations in sleep, brain structure, and environmental demands as well as diverging ADHD trajectories. Methods A systematic review identified studies published prior to August 2016 assessing sleep in adolescents (aged 10–19 years) with ADHD or participating in population-based studies measuring ADHD symptoms. Results Twenty-five studies were identified (19 subjective report, 6 using actigraphy/polysomnography). Findings are mixed but overall suggest associations between sleep disturbances and 1) ADHD symptoms in the population and 2) poorer clinical, neurocognitive, and functional outcomes among adolescents with ADHD. Common limitations of studies included small or non-representative samples, non-standardized sleep measures, and cross-sectional methodology. Conclusions Current data on sleep in adolescent ADHD are sparse and limited by methodological concerns. Future studies are critical for clarifying a potential role of sleep in contributing to heterogeneity of ADHD presentation and prognosis. Potential mechanisms by which sleep disturbances during adolescence may contribute to worsened symptom severity and persistence of ADHD into adulthood and an agenda to guide future research are discussed. PMID:27969004

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE PAGES

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

The Future of the Small Rural Grocery Store: A Qualitative Exploration.

PubMed

Pinard, Courtney A; Fricke, Hollyanne E; Smith, Teresa M; Carpenter, Leah R; Yaroch, Amy L

2016-11-01

Rural communities face unique challenges to and opportunities for offering more healthful foods and are often understudied in comparison to their urban counterparts. The purpose of this study was to conduct a qualitative assessment of rural storeowners' perceptions of their communities, their business practices, and factors that influences their viability, sustainability, and ability to support healthy food choices. We conducted interviews with storeowners (N = 15) in small stores in rural Nebraska and explored perceptions of business practices, role in the community, and consumer demand for more healthful foods. The storeowners reported strategies they employ to remain competitive, such as selling alcohol and tobacco, focusing on customer service, and ensuring quality of products. Manufacturer and distributor agreements often put constraints on their business models. Key challenges reported included a dwindling population and competition with larger chains in neighboring towns set in a sparsely populated landscape. Goals for the future included expanding equipment, largely to offer more prepared foods. This study adds to the literature around food access in rural communities, and can inform future implementation strategies to work with storeowners to improve healthy food access.

Do we have to choose between feeding the human population and conserving nature? Modelling the global dependence of people on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Cazalis, Victor; Loreau, Michel; Henderson, Kirsten

2018-09-01

The ability of the human population to continue growing depends strongly on the ecosystem services provided by nature. Nature, however, is becoming more and more degraded as the number of individuals increases, which could potentially threaten the future well-being of the human population. We use a dynamic model to conceptualise links between the global proportion of natural habitats and human demography, through four categories of ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, cultural recreational and informational) to investigate the common future of nature and humanity in terms of size and well-being. Our model shows that there is generally a trade-off between the quality of life and human population size and identifies four short-term scenarios, corresponding to three long-term steady states of the model. First, human population could experience declines if nature becomes too degraded and regulating services diminish; second the majority of the population could be in a famine state, where the population continues to grow with minimal food provision. Between these scenarios, a desirable future scenario emerges from the model. It occurs if humans convert enough land to feed all the population, while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, we find a fourth scenario, which combines famine and a decline in the population because of an overexploitation of land leading to a decrease in food production. Human demography is embedded in natural dynamics; the two factors should be considered together if we are to identify a desirable future for both nature and humans. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projected future distribution of dentists in Japan.

PubMed

Ishimaru, Miho; Ono, Sachiko; Yasunaga, Hideo; Matsui, Hiroki; Koike, Soichi

2016-06-01

Appropriate health policies for the supply of dentists have been an ongoing issue in many developed countries. The purpose of this study was to estimate the future distribution of dentists with different working statuses in Japan and to discuss policy implications about the supply of dentists in any country. This was a retrospective cohort study using data from the National Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists for 1972-2012. Based on data from the 2010 and 2012 surveys, we calculated by means of a Markov model the future number of dentists with different working statuses until 2042 according to sex. We estimated that the total number of active dentists will decrease from 2012 to 2042. The number of active dentists per 1,000 population was predicted to reach a peak in 2018, decrease by 4.2% from 2012 to 2038, and thereafter slightly increase. With regard to working status, the number of dentists with their own practices per 1,000 people was predicted to have reached a peak in 2014 and decrease by 22.0% until 2042. We estimated that the number of dentists used in dental clinics per 1,000 population will increase continuously between 2012 and 2042 by 20.0%. Our study suggests that maintaining this supply of dentists may lead to maldistribution of their working status in the future. © 2016 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

Estimating Historical Eastern North Pacific Blue Whale Catches Using Spatial Calling Patterns

PubMed Central

Monnahan, Cole C.; Branch, Trevor A.; Stafford, Kathleen M.; Ivashchenko, Yulia V.; Oleson, Erin M.

2014-01-01

Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) were exploited extensively around the world and remain endangered. In the North Pacific their population structure is unclear and current status unknown, with the exception of a well-studied eastern North Pacific (ENP) population. Despite existing abundance estimates for the ENP population, it is difficult to estimate pre-exploitation abundance levels and gauge their recovery because historical catches of the ENP population are difficult to separate from catches of other populations in the North Pacific. We collated previously unreported Soviet catches and combined these with known catches to form the most current estimates of North Pacific blue whale catches. We split these conflated catches using recorded acoustic calls from throughout the North Pacific, the knowledge that the ENP population produces a different call than blue whales in the western North Pacific (WNP). The catches were split by estimating spatiotemporal occurrence of blue whales with generalized additive models fitted to acoustic call patterns, which predict the probability a catch belonged to the ENP population based on the proportion of calls of each population recorded by latitude, longitude, and month. When applied to the conflated historical catches, which totaled 9,773, we estimate that ENP blue whale catches totaled 3,411 (95% range 2,593 to 4,114) from 1905–1971, and amounted to 35% (95% range 27% to 42%) of all catches in the North Pacific. Thus most catches in the North Pacific were for WNP blue whales, totaling 6,362 (95% range 5,659 to 7,180). The uncertainty in the acoustic data influence the results substantially more than uncertainty in catch locations and dates, but the results are fairly insensitive to the ecological assumptions made in the analysis. The results of this study provide information for future studies investigating the recovery of these populations and the impact of continuing and future sources of anthropogenic mortality. PMID:24892427

Estimating historical eastern North Pacific blue whale catches using spatial calling patterns.

PubMed

Monnahan, Cole C; Branch, Trevor A; Stafford, Kathleen M; Ivashchenko, Yulia V; Oleson, Erin M

2014-01-01

Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) were exploited extensively around the world and remain endangered. In the North Pacific their population structure is unclear and current status unknown, with the exception of a well-studied eastern North Pacific (ENP) population. Despite existing abundance estimates for the ENP population, it is difficult to estimate pre-exploitation abundance levels and gauge their recovery because historical catches of the ENP population are difficult to separate from catches of other populations in the North Pacific. We collated previously unreported Soviet catches and combined these with known catches to form the most current estimates of North Pacific blue whale catches. We split these conflated catches using recorded acoustic calls from throughout the North Pacific, the knowledge that the ENP population produces a different call than blue whales in the western North Pacific (WNP). The catches were split by estimating spatiotemporal occurrence of blue whales with generalized additive models fitted to acoustic call patterns, which predict the probability a catch belonged to the ENP population based on the proportion of calls of each population recorded by latitude, longitude, and month. When applied to the conflated historical catches, which totaled 9,773, we estimate that ENP blue whale catches totaled 3,411 (95% range 2,593 to 4,114) from 1905-1971, and amounted to 35% (95% range 27% to 42%) of all catches in the North Pacific. Thus most catches in the North Pacific were for WNP blue whales, totaling 6,362 (95% range 5,659 to 7,180). The uncertainty in the acoustic data influence the results substantially more than uncertainty in catch locations and dates, but the results are fairly insensitive to the ecological assumptions made in the analysis. The results of this study provide information for future studies investigating the recovery of these populations and the impact of continuing and future sources of anthropogenic mortality.

Dasymetric high resolution population distribution estimates for improved decision making, with a case study of sea-level rise vulnerability in Boca Raton, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegler, Hannes Moritz

Planners and managers often rely on coarse population distribution data from the census for addressing various social, economic, and environmental problems. In the analysis of physical vulnerabilities to sea-level rise, census units such as blocks or block groups are coarse relative to the required decision-making application. This study explores the benefits offered from integrating image classification and dasymetric mapping at the household level to provide detailed small area population estimates at the scale of residential buildings. In a case study of Boca Raton, FL, a sea-level rise inundation grid based on mapping methods by NOAA is overlaid on the highly detailed population distribution data to identify vulnerable residences and estimate population displacement. The enhanced spatial detail offered through this method has the potential to better guide targeted strategies for future development, mitigation, and adaptation efforts.

Fine-scale population structure of Malays in Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore and implications for association studies.

PubMed

Hoh, Boon-Peng; Deng, Lian; Julia-Ashazila, Mat Jusoh; Zuraihan, Zakaria; Nur-Hasnah, Ma'amor; Nur-Shafawati, Ab Rajab; Hatin, Wan Isa; Endom, Ismail; Zilfalil, Bin Alwi; Khalid, Yusoff; Xu, Shuhua

2015-07-22

Fine scale population structure of Malays - the major population in Malaysia, has not been well studied. This may have important implications for both evolutionary and medical studies. Here, we investigated the population sub-structure of Malay involving 431 samples collected from all states from peninsular Malaysia and Singapore. We identified two major clusters of individuals corresponding to the north and south peninsular Malaysia. On an even finer scale, the genetic coordinates of the geographical Malay populations are in correlation with the latitudes (R(2) = 0.3925; P = 0.029). This finding is further supported by the pairwise FST of Malay sub-populations, of which the north and south regions showed the highest differentiation (FST [North-south] = 0.0011). The collective findings therefore suggest that population sub-structure of Malays are more heterogenous than previously expected even within a small geographical region, possibly due to factors like different genetic origins, geographical isolation, could result in spurious association as demonstrated in our analysis. We suggest that cautions should be taken during the stage of study design or interpreting the association signals in disease mapping studies which are expected to be conducted in Malay population in the near future.

Genetic genealogy comes of age: perspectives on the use of deep-rooted pedigrees in human population genetics.

PubMed

Larmuseau, M H D; Van Geystelen, A; van Oven, M; Decorte, R

2013-04-01

In this article, we promote the implementation of extensive genealogical data in population genetic studies. Genealogical records can provide valuable information on the origin of DNA donors in a population genetic study, going beyond the commonly collected data such as residence, birthplace, language, and self-reported ethnicity. Recent studies demonstrated that extended genealogical data added to surname analysis can be crucial to detect signals of (past) population stratification and to interpret the population structure in a more objective manner. Moreover, when in-depth pedigree data are combined with haploid markers, it is even possible to disentangle signals of temporal differentiation within a population genetic structure during the last centuries. Obtaining genealogical data for all DNA donors in a population genetic study is a labor-intensive task but the vastly growing (genetic) genealogical databases, due to the broad interest of the public, are making this job more time-efficient if there is a guarantee for sufficient data quality. At the end, we discuss the advantages and pitfalls of using genealogy within sampling campaigns and we provide guidelines for future population genetic studies. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Individual and social discounting in a viscous population.

PubMed

Sozou, Peter D

2009-08-22

Social discounting in economics involves applying a diminishing weight to community-wide benefits or costs into the future. It impacts on public policy decisions involving future positive or negative effects, but there is no consensus on the correct basis for determining the social discount rate. This study presents an evolutionary biological framework for social discounting. How an organism should value future benefits to its local community is governed by the extent to which members of the community in the future are likely to be its kin. Trade-offs between immediate and delayed benefits to an individual or to its community are analysed for a modelled patch-structured iteroparous population with limited dispersal. It is shown that the social discount rate is generally lower than the individual (private) discount rate. The difference in the two rates is most pronounced, in ratio terms, when the dispersal level is low and the hazard rate for patch destruction is much smaller than the individual mortality rate. When decisions involve enforced collective action rather than individuals acting independently, social investment increases but the social discount rate remains the same.

The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

PubMed Central

Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana

2012-01-01

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change. PMID:23144840

Patients living with disabilities: The need for high-quality primary care.

PubMed

Lofters, Aisha; Guilcher, Sara; Maulkhan, Niraj; Milligan, James; Lee, Joseph

2016-08-01

To compare the potential risk factors for lower-quality primary care, the potential markers of unmet needs in primary care, and the willingness to participate in future research among primary care patients with versus without physical disabilities. A waiting room survey using a convenience sample. A family health team (FHT) in Kitchener-Waterloo, Ont, with a designated Mobility Clinic. A total of 40 patients seen at the FHT Mobility Clinic and 80 patients from the general patient population of the same FHT. Socioeconomic status and social capital, number of self-reported emergency department visits and hospitalizations in the preceding year, and willingness of the patients in the 2 groups to participate in future research studies. Patients from the Mobility Clinic were more than twice as likely to be receiving benefits or social assistance (75.0% vs 32.1%, P < .001), were twice as likely to report an annual household income of less than $40000 (58.6% vs 29.2%, P = .006), and were more likely to report their health status to be fair or poor (42.5% vs 16.2%, P = .002). Half of Mobility Clinic patients had visited the emergency department at least once in the preceding year, compared with 29.7% in the general patient population (P = .027). When asked if they would be willing to provide their health card number in the future so that it could be linked to health care data for research, 82.5% of Mobility Clinic patients agreed versus 55.0% of those in the general patient population (P = .004). In this study, patients with disabilities were at a social disadvantage compared with their peers without disabilities and were more likely to use the emergency department, suggesting that they had unmet health needs. Future research should continue to explore this patient population and to investigate if an interprofessional primary health care team approach focused on patients with disabilities can help to increase quality of care. Copyright© the College of Family Physicians of Canada.

Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

2010-10-05

Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

The Ocean: Source of Nutrition for the Future. A Learning Experience for Coastal and Oceanic Awareness Studies, No. 305. [Project COAST].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delaware Univ., Newark. Coll. of Education.

The question of future sources of food is posed with increasing frequency as the amount of arable land per person decreases with population growth. The role of the ocean as a food supplier is currently being explored. This learning experience is designed for secondary school students. It is divided into four major areas: (1) an overview, (2)…

Multiple sclerosis in Canada 2011 to 2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and economic impacts.

PubMed

Amankwah, Nana; Marrie, Ruth Ann; Bancej, Christina; Garner, Rochelle; Manuel, Douglas G; Wall, Ron; Finès, Philippe; Bernier, Julie; Tu, Karen; Reimer, Kim

2017-02-01

The objective of our study was to present model-based estimates and projections on current and future health and economic impacts of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Canada over a 20-year time horizon (2011-2031). Using Statistics Canada's Population Health Microsimulation Model (POHEM) framework, specifically the population-based longitudinal, microsimulation model named POHEM-Neurological, we identified people with MS from health administrative data sources and derived incidence and mortality rate parameters from a British Columbia population-based cohort for future MS incidence and mortality projections. We also included a utility-based measure (Health Utilities Index Mark 3) reflecting states of functional health to allow projections of health-related quality of life. Finally, we estimated caregiving parameters and health care costs from Canadian national surveys and health administrative data and included them as model parameters to assess the health and economic impact of the neurological conditions. The number of incident MS cases is expected to rise slightly from 4051 cases in 2011 to 4794 cases per 100 000 population in 2031, and the number of Canadians affected by MS will increase from 98 385 in 2011 to 133 635 in 2031. The total per capita health care cost (excluding out-of-pocket expenses) for adults aged 20 and older in 2011 was about $16 800 for individuals with MS, and approximately $2500 for individuals without a neurological condition. Thus, after accounting for additional expenditures due to MS (excluding out-of-pocket expenses), total annual health sector costs for MS are expected to reach $2.0 billion by 2031. As well, the average out-of-pocket expenditure for people with MS was around $1300 annually throughout the projection period. MS is associated with a significant economic burden on society, since it usually affects young adults during prime career- and family-building years. Canada has a particularly high prevalence of MS, so research such as the present study is essential to provide a better understanding of the current and future negative impacts of MS on the Canadian population, so that health care system policymakers can best plan how to meet the needs of patients who are affected by MS. These findings also suggest that identifying strategies to prevent MS and more effectively treat the disease are needed to mitigate these future impacts.

Multiple sclerosis in Canada 2011 to 2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and economic impacts

PubMed Central

Nana, Amankwah; Ruth, Ann Marrie; Christina, Bancej; Rochelle, Garner; Douglas, G. Manuel; Ron, Wall; Philippe, Finès; Julie, Bernier; Karen, Tu; Kim, Reimer

2017-01-01

Introduction: The objective of our study was to present model-based estimates and projections on current and future health and economic impacts of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Canada over a 20-year time horizon (2011–2031). Methods: Using Statistics Canada’s Population Health Microsimulation Model (POHEM) framework, specifically the population-based longitudinal, microsimulation model named POHEM-Neurological, we identified people with MS from health administrative data sources and derived incidence and mortality rate parameters from a British Columbia population-based cohort for future MS incidence and mortality projections. We also included a utility-based measure (Health Utilities Index Mark 3) reflecting states of functional health to allow projections of health-related quality of life. Finally, we estimated caregiving parameters and health care costs from Canadian national surveys and health administrative data and included them as model parameters to assess the health and economic impact of the neurological conditions. Results: The number of incident MS cases is expected to rise slightly from 4051 cases in 2011 to 4794 cases per 100 000 population in 2031, and the number of Canadians affected by MS will increase from 98 385 in 2011 to 133 635 in 2031. The total per capita health care cost (excluding out-of-pocket expenses) for adults aged 20 and older in 2011 was about $16 800 for individuals with MS, and approximately $2500 for individuals without a neurological condition. Thus, after accounting for additional expenditures due to MS (excluding out-of-pocket expenses), total annual health sector costs for MS are expected to reach $2.0 billion by 2031. As well, the average out-of-pocket expenditure for people with MS was around $1300 annually throughout the projection period. Conclusion: MS is associated with a significant economic burden on society, since it usually affects young adults during prime career- and family-building years. Canada has a particularly high prevalence of MS, so research such as the present study is essential to provide a better understanding of the current and future negative impacts of MS on the Canadian population, so that health care system policymakers can best plan how to meet the needs of patients who are affected by MS. These findings also suggest that identifying strategies to prevent MS and more effectively treat the disease are needed to mitigate these future impacts. PMID:28273039

Genetic variation assessed with microsatellites in mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster ( Crassostrea gigas) in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xubo; Li, Qi; Yu, Hong; Kong, Lingfeng

2016-12-01

Four successive mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, selected for faster growth in breeding programs in China were examined at ten polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess the level of allelic diversity and estimate the effective population size. These data were compared with those of their base population. The results showed that the genetic variation of the four generations were maintained at high levels with an average allelic richness of 18.8-20.6, and a mean expected heterozygosity of 0.902-0.921. They were not reduced compared with those of their base population. Estimated effective population sizes based on temporal variances in microsatellite frequencies were smaller to that of sex ratio-corrected broodstock count estimates. Using a relatively large number of broodstock and keeping an equal sex ratio in the broodstock each generation may have contributed to retaining the original genetic diversity and maintaining relatively large effective population size. The results obtained in this study showed that the genetic variation was not affected greatly by mass selection progress and high genetic variation still existed in the mass selection lines, suggesting that there is still potential for increasing the gains in future generations of C. gigas. The present study provided important information for future genetic improvement by selective breeding, and for the design of suitable management guidelines for genetic breeding of C. gigas.

78 FR 43147 - Fisheries of the South Atlantic; Southeast Data, Assessment, and Review (SEDAR); Public Meetings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-19

..., estimates biological benchmarks, projects future population conditions, and recommends research and... the Assessment webinars are as follows: 1. Participants will employ assessment models to evaluate stock status, estimate population benchmarks and management criteria, and project future conditions. The...

Determinants of physician utilization, emergency room use, and hospitalizations among populations with multiple health vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Small, La Fleur F

2011-09-01

Understanding the factors that influence differing types of health care utilization within vulnerable groups can serve as a basis for projecting future health care needs, forecasting future health care expenditures, and influencing social policy. In this article the Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations is used to evaluate discretionary (physician visits) and non-discretionary (emergency room visits, and hospitalizations) health utilization patterns of a sample of 1466 respondents with one or more vulnerable health classification. Reported vulnerabilities include: (1) persons with substance disorders; (2) homeless persons; (3) persons with mental health problems; (4) victims of violent crime; (5) persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS; (6) and persons in receipt of public benefits. Hierarchical logistic regression is used on three nested models to model factors that influence physician visits, emergency room visits, and hospitalizations. Additionally, bivariate logistic regression analyses are completed using a vulnerability index to evaluate the impact of increased numbers of vulnerability on all three forms of health care utilization. Findings from this study suggest the Behavioral Model of Vulnerable Populations be employed in future research regarding health care utilization patterns among vulnerable populations. This article encourages further research investigating the cumulative effect of health vulnerabilities on the use of non-discretionary services so that this behavior could be better understood and appropriate social policies and behavioral interventions implemented.

Chlorine dioxide water disinfection: a prospective epidemiology study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michael, G.E.; Miday, R.K.; Bercz, J.P.

An epidemiologic study of 198 persons exposed for 3 months to drinking water disinfected with chlorine dioxide was conducted in a rural village. A control population of 118 nonexposed persons was also studied. Pre-exposure hematologic and serum chemical parameters were compared with test results after 115 days of exposure. Chlorite ion levels in the water averaged approximately 5 ppM during the study period. Statistical analysis (ANOVA) of the data failed to identify any significant exposure-related effects. This study suggests that future evaluations of chlorine dioxide disinfection should be directed toward populations with potentially increased sensitivity to hemolytic agents.

The genetic tale of a recovering lion population (Panthera leo) in the Savé Valley region (Zimbabwe): A better understanding of the history and managing the future

PubMed Central

Groom, Rosemary J.; Khuzwayo, Joy; Jansen van Vuuren, Bettine

2018-01-01

The rapid decline of the African lion (Panthera leo) has raised conservation concerns. In the Savé Valley Conservancy (SVC), in the Lowveld of Zimbabwe, lions were presumably reduced to approximately 5 to 10 individuals. After ten lions were reintroduced in 2005, the population has recovered to over 200 lions in 2016. Although the increase of lions in the SVC seems promising, a question remains whether the population is genetically viable, considering their small founding population. In this study, we document the genetic diversity in the SVC lion population using both mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers, and compare our results to literature from other lion populations across Africa. We also tested whether genetic diversity is spatially structured between lion populations residing on several reserves in the Lowveld of Zimbabwe. A total of 42 lions were genotyped successfully for 11 microsatellite loci. We confirmed that the loss of allelic richness (probably resulting from genetic drift and small number of founders) has resulted in low genetic diversity and inbreeding. The SVC lion population was also found to be genetically differentiated from surrounding population, as a result of genetic drift and restricted natural dispersal due to anthropogenic barriers. From a conservation perspective, it is important to avoid further loss of genetic variability in the SVC lion population and maintain evolutionary potential required for future survival. Genetic restoration through the introduction of unrelated individuals is recommended, as this will increase genetic heterozygosity and improve survival and reproductive fitness in populations. PMID:29415031

The genetic tale of a recovering lion population (Panthera leo) in the Savé Valley region (Zimbabwe): A better understanding of the history and managing the future.

PubMed

Tensen, Laura; Groom, Rosemary J; Khuzwayo, Joy; Jansen van Vuuren, Bettine

2018-01-01

The rapid decline of the African lion (Panthera leo) has raised conservation concerns. In the Savé Valley Conservancy (SVC), in the Lowveld of Zimbabwe, lions were presumably reduced to approximately 5 to 10 individuals. After ten lions were reintroduced in 2005, the population has recovered to over 200 lions in 2016. Although the increase of lions in the SVC seems promising, a question remains whether the population is genetically viable, considering their small founding population. In this study, we document the genetic diversity in the SVC lion population using both mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers, and compare our results to literature from other lion populations across Africa. We also tested whether genetic diversity is spatially structured between lion populations residing on several reserves in the Lowveld of Zimbabwe. A total of 42 lions were genotyped successfully for 11 microsatellite loci. We confirmed that the loss of allelic richness (probably resulting from genetic drift and small number of founders) has resulted in low genetic diversity and inbreeding. The SVC lion population was also found to be genetically differentiated from surrounding population, as a result of genetic drift and restricted natural dispersal due to anthropogenic barriers. From a conservation perspective, it is important to avoid further loss of genetic variability in the SVC lion population and maintain evolutionary potential required for future survival. Genetic restoration through the introduction of unrelated individuals is recommended, as this will increase genetic heterozygosity and improve survival and reproductive fitness in populations.

Social Stigma and Mental Health among Rural-to-Urban Migrants in China: A Conceptual Framework and Future Research Needs

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaoming; Stanton, Bonita; Fang, Xiaoyi; Lin, Danhua

2007-01-01

There are over 100 million individuals in China who have migrated from rural villages to urban areas for jobs or better lives without permanent urban residency (e.g., “rural-to-urban migrants”). Our preliminary data from ongoing research among rural-to-urban migrants in China suggest that the migrant population is strongly stigmatized. Moreover, it appears that substantial numbers of these migrants experience mental health symptoms (e.g., depression, anxiety, hostility, social isolation). While the population potentially affected is substantial (more than 9% of the entire population or about one-quarter of the rural labor in mainland China) and our data seem to indicate that the issue is pervasive in this population, there is limited literature on the topic in China or elsewhere. Therefore, in the current article, we utilize secondary data from public resources (e.g., scientific literature, governmental publication, public media) and our own qualitative data to explore the issues of stigmatization and mental health, to propose a conceptual model for studying the association between the stigmatization and mental health among this population, and to identify some future needs of research in this area. PMID:18277106

A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Kao, Shih -Chieh; ...

2018-05-23

Here, the future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selectedmore » from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.« less

A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Kao, Shih -Chieh

Here, the future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selectedmore » from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.« less

Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stauffer, Cheryl Lynn, Ed.

This booklet focuses on eight elements of population dynamics: "Population Growth and Distribution"; "Natural Increase and Future Growth"; "Effect of Migration on Population Growth"; "Three Patterns of Population Change"; "Patterns of World Urbanization"; "The Status of Women";…

Climate Change, Tropospheric Ozone and Particulate Matter, and Health Impacts

PubMed Central

Ebi, Kristie L.; McGregor, Glenn

2008-01-01

Objective Because the state of the atmosphere determines the development, transport, dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants, there is concern that climate change could affect morbidity and mortality associated with elevated concentrations of these gases and fine particles. We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health. Data sources We review studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and studies projecting the impacts of these changes on morbidity and mortality. Data synthesis Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty include the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given these uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, which would increase morbidity and mortality. Few projections are available for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, primarily because few studies have been conducted. Conclusions Additional research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution–related health impacts. If improved models continue to project higher ozone concentrations with climate change, then reducing greenhouse gas emissions would enhance the health of current and future generations. PMID:19057695

Education Vital Signs: Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zakariya, Sally Banks

1985-01-01

Population changes and demographics shape the future of public schools. Includes statistics on ethnic makeup of student population, the projected baby boomlet, children of working mothers, households without children, and the aging population. (MD)

Future Supply of Pediatric Surgeons: Analytical Study of the Current and Projected Supply of Pediatric Surgeons in the Context of a Rapidly Changing Process for Specialty and Subspecialty Training.

PubMed

Ricketts, Thomas C; Adamson, William T; Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Geiger, James D; Abdullah, Fizan; Klein, Michael D

2017-03-01

To describe the future supply and demand for pediatric surgeons using a physician supply model to determine what the future supply of pediatric surgeons will be over the next decade and a half and to compare that projected supply with potential indicators of demand and the growth of other subspecialties. Anticipating the supply of physicians and surgeons in the future has met with varying levels of success. However, there remains a need to anticipate supply given the rapid growth of specialty and subspecialty fellowships. This analysis is intended to support decision making on the size of future fellowships in pediatric surgery. The model used in the study is an adaptation of the FutureDocs physician supply and need tool developed to anticipate future supply and need for all physician specialties. Data from national inventories of physicians by specialty, age, sex, activity, and location are combined with data from residency and fellowship programs and accrediting bodies in an agent-based or microsimulation projection model that considers movement into and among specialties. Exits from practice and the geographic distribution of physician and the patient population are also included in the model. Three scenarios for the annual entry into pediatric surgery fellowships (28, 34, and 56) are modeled and their effects on supply through 2030 are presented. The FutureDocs model predicts a very rapid growth of the supply of surgeons who treat pediatric patients-including general pediatric surgeon and focused subspecialties. The supply of all pediatric surgeons will grow relatively rapidly through 2030 under current conditions. That growth is much faster than the rate of growth of the pediatric population. The volume of complex surgical cases will likely match this population growth rate meaning there will be many more surgeons trained for those procedures. The current entry rate into pediatric surgery fellowships (34 per year) will result in a slowing of growth after 2025, a rate of 56 will generate a continued growth through 2030 with a likely plateau after 2035. The rate of entry into pediatric surgery will continue to exceed population growth through 2030 under two likely scenarios. The very rapid anticipated growth in focused pediatric subspecialties will likely prove challenging to surgeons wishing to maintain their skills with complex cases as a larger and more diverse group of surgeons will also seek to care for many of the conditions and patients which the general pediatric surgeons and general surgeons now see. This means controlling the numbers of pediatric surgery fellowships in a way that recognizes problems with distribution, the volume of cases available to maintain proficiency, and the dynamics of retirement and shifts into other specialty practice.

Population-dependent effects of ocean acidification.

PubMed

Wood, Hannah L; Sundell, Kristina; Almroth, Bethanie Carney; Sköld, Helén Nilsson; Eriksson, Susanne P

2016-04-13

Elevated carbon dioxide levels and the resultant ocean acidification (OA) are changing the abiotic conditions of the oceans at a greater rate than ever before and placing pressure on marine species. Understanding the response of marine fauna to this change is critical for understanding the effects of OA. Population-level variation in OA tolerance is highly relevant and important in the determination of ecosystem resilience and persistence, but has received little focus to date. In this study, whether OA has the same biological consequences in high-salinity-acclimated population versus a low-salinity-acclimated population of the same species was investigated in the marine isopod Idotea balthica.The populations were found to have physiologically different responses to OA. While survival rate was similar between the two study populations at a future CO2 level of 1000 ppm, and both populations showed increased oxidative stress, the metabolic rate and osmoregulatory activity differed significantly between the two populations. The results of this study demonstrate that the physiological response to OA of populations from different salinities can vary. Population-level variation and the environment provenance of individuals used in OA experiments should be taken into account for the evaluation and prediction of climate change effects. © 2016 The Author(s).

Population-dependent effects of ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Wood, Hannah L.; Sundell, Kristina; Almroth, Bethanie Carney; Sköld, Helén Nilsson; Eriksson, Susanne P.

2016-01-01

Elevated carbon dioxide levels and the resultant ocean acidification (OA) are changing the abiotic conditions of the oceans at a greater rate than ever before and placing pressure on marine species. Understanding the response of marine fauna to this change is critical for understanding the effects of OA. Population-level variation in OA tolerance is highly relevant and important in the determination of ecosystem resilience and persistence, but has received little focus to date. In this study, whether OA has the same biological consequences in high-salinity-acclimated population versus a low-salinity-acclimated population of the same species was investigated in the marine isopod Idotea balthica. The populations were found to have physiologically different responses to OA. While survival rate was similar between the two study populations at a future CO2 level of 1000 ppm, and both populations showed increased oxidative stress, the metabolic rate and osmoregulatory activity differed significantly between the two populations. The results of this study demonstrate that the physiological response to OA of populations from different salinities can vary. Population-level variation and the environment provenance of individuals used in OA experiments should be taken into account for the evaluation and prediction of climate change effects. PMID:27053741

Introduction beyond a species range: a relationship between population origin, adaptive potential and plant performance.

PubMed

Volis, S; Ormanbekova, D; Yermekbayev, K; Song, M; Shulgina, I

2014-09-01

The adaptive potential of a population defines its importance for species survival in changing environmental conditions such as global climate change. Very few empirical studies have examined adaptive potential across species' ranges, namely, of edge vs core populations, and we are unaware of a study that has tested adaptive potential (namely, variation in adaptive traits) and measured performance of such populations in conditions not currently experienced by the species but expected in the future. Here we report the results of a Triticum dicoccoides population study that employed transplant experiments and analysis of quantitative trait variation. Two populations at the opposite edges of the species range (1) were locally adapted; (2) had lower adaptive potential (inferred from the extent of genetic quantitative trait variation) than the two core populations; and (3) were outperformed by the plants from the core population in the novel environment. The fact that plants from the species arid edge performed worse than plants from the more mesic core in extreme drought conditions beyond the present climatic envelope of the species implies that usage of peripheral populations for conservation purposes must be based on intensive sampling of among-population variation.

California's Changing Face: The Challenge Ahead. Future in Focus, 2000-2025: Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kan-Rice, Pamela, Ed.

2000-01-01

Part of a series on California's future through 2025, this theme issue of California Agriculture examines how demographic changes and increased ethnic diversity will affect the state's agriculture, economy, and educational system. Research articles are: "Immigration, High Fertility Fuel State's Population Growth" (William A. V. Clark);…

Collisional cascading - The limits of population growth in low earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, Donald J.

1991-01-01

Random collisions between made-made objects in earth orbit will lead to a significant source of orbital debris, but there are a number of uncertainties in these models, and additional analysis and data are required to fully characterize the future environment. However, the nature of these uncertainties are such that while the future environment is uncertain, the fact that collisions will control the future environment is less uncertain. The data that already exist is sufficient to show that cascading collisions will control the future debris environment with no, or very minor increases in the current low-earth-orbit population. Two populations control this process: explosion fragments and expended rocket bodies and payloads. Practices are already changing to limit explosions in low earth orbit; it is necessary to begin limiting the number of expended rocket bodies and payloads in orbit.

Star Formation Histories of Local Group Dwarf Galaxies. (Ludwig Biermann Award Lecture 1996)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebel, E. K.

The star formation histories of dwarf galaxies in the Local Group are reviewed. First the question of Local Group membership is considered based on various criteria. The properties of 31 (36) galaxies are consistent with likely (potential) Local Group membership. To study the star formation histories of these galaxies, a multi-parameter problem needs to be solved: Ages, metallicities, population fractions, and spatial variations must be determined, which depend crucially on the knowledge of reddening and distance. The basic methods for studying resolvable stellar populations are summarized. One method is demonstrated using the Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxy. A comprehensive compilation of the star formation histories of dwarf irregulars, dwarf ellipticals, and dwarf spheroidals in the Local Group is presented and visualized through Hodge's population boxes. All galaxies appear to have differing fractions of old and intermediate-age populations, and those sufficiently massive and undisturbed to retain and recycle their gas are still forming stars today. Star formation has occurred either in distinct episodes or continuously over long periods of time. Metallicities and enrichment vary widely. Constraints on merger and remnant scenarios are discussed, and a unified picture based on the current knowledge is presented. Primary goals for future observations are: accurate age determinations based on turnoff photometry, detection of subpopulations distinct in age, metallicity, and/or spatial distribution; improved distances; and astrometric studies to derive orbits and constrain past and future interactions.

Determinants of health and disability in ageing population: the COURAGE in Europe Project (collaborative research on ageing in Europe).

PubMed

Leonardi, Matilde; Chatterji, Somnath; Koskinen, Seppo; Ayuso-Mateos, Jose Luis; Haro, Josep Maria; Frisoni, Giovanni; Frattura, Lucilla; Martinuzzi, Andrea; Tobiasz-Adamczyk, Beata; Gmurek, Michal; Serrano, Ramon; Finocchiaro, Carla

2014-01-01

COURAGE in Europe was a 3-year project involving 12 partners from four European countries and the World Health Organization. It was inspired by the pressing need to integrate international studies on disability and ageing in light of an innovative perspective based on a validated data-collection protocol. COURAGE in Europe Project collected data on the determinants of health and disability in an ageing population, with specific tools for the evaluation of the role of the built environment and social networks on health, disability, quality of life and well-being. The main survey was conducted by partners in Finland, Poland and Spain where the survey has been administered to a sample of 10,800 persons, which was completed in March 2012. The newly developed and validated COURAGE Protocol for Ageing Studies has proven to be a valid tool for collecting comparable data in ageing population, and the COURAGE in Europe Project has created valid and reliable scientific evidence, demonstrating cross-country comparability, for disability and ageing research and policy development. It is therefore recommended that future studies exploring determinants of health and disability in ageing use the COURAGE-derived methodology. COURAGE in Europe Project collected data on the determinants of health and disability in an ageing population, with specific tools for the evaluation of the role of built environment and social networks on health, disability quality of life and well-being. The COURAGE Protocol for Ageing Studies has proven to be a valid tool for collecting comparable data in the ageing population. The COURAGE in Europe Consortium recommends that future studies exploring determinants of health and disability in ageing use COURAGE-derived methodology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The economic burden of physical inactivity: a systematic review and critical appraisal.

PubMed

Ding, Ding; Kolbe-Alexander, Tracy; Nguyen, Binh; Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Pratt, Michael; Lawson, Kenny D

2017-10-01

To summarise the literature on the economic burden of physical inactivity in populations, with emphases on appraising the methodologies and providing recommendations for future studies. Systematic review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines (PROSPERO registration number CRD42016047705). Electronic databases for peer-reviewed and grey literature were systematically searched, followed by reference searching and consultation with experts. Studies that examined the economic consequences of physical inactivity in a population/population-based sample, with clearly stated methodologies and at least an abstract/summary written in English. Of the 40 eligible studies, 27 focused on direct healthcare costs only, 13 also estimated indirect costs and one study additionally estimated household costs. For direct costs, 23 studies used a population attributable fraction (PAF) approach with estimated healthcare costs attributable to physical inactivity ranging from 0.3% to 4.6% of national healthcare expenditure; 17 studies used an econometric approach, which tended to yield higher estimates than those using a PAF approach. For indirect costs, 10 studies used a human capital approach, two used a friction cost approach and one used a value of a statistical life approach. Overall, estimates varied substantially, even within the same country, depending on analytical approaches, time frame and other methodological considerations. Estimating the economic burden of physical inactivity is an area of increasing importance that requires further development. There is a marked lack of consistency in methodological approaches and transparency of reporting. Future studies could benefit from cross-disciplinary collaborations involving economists and physical activity experts, taking a societal perspective and following best practices in conducting and reporting analysis, including accounting for potential confounding, reverse causality and comorbidity, applying discounting and sensitivity analysis, and reporting assumptions, limitations and justifications for approaches taken. We have adapted the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist as a guide for future estimates of the economic burden of physical inactivity and other risk factors. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Shifting foundations and metrics for golden-cheeked warbler recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Duarte, Adam

2012-01-01

Using the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) as a case study, this paper discusses what lessons can be learned from the process of the emergency listing and subsequent development of the recovery plan. Are the metrics for recovery in the current warbler plan appropriate, including population size and distribution (recovery units), migration corridors, and wintering habitat? In other words, what happened, what can we learn, and what should happen (in general) in the future for development of such plans? We discuss the number of recovery units required for species persistence and estimate the number of male warblers in protected areas across the breeding range of the species, using newly published density estimates. We also discuss future monitoring strategies to estimate warbler population trends and dispersal rates.

The impact of neighborhood social and built environment factors across the cancer continuum: Current research, methodological considerations, and future directions.

PubMed

Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Shariff-Marco, Salma; DeRouen, Mindy; Keegan, Theresa H M; Yen, Irene H; Mujahid, Mahasin; Satariano, William A; Glaser, Sally L

2015-07-15

Neighborhood social and built environments have been recognized as important contexts in which health is shaped. The authors reviewed the extent to which these neighborhood factors have been addressed in population-level cancer research by scanning the literature for research focused on specific social and/or built environment characteristics and their association with outcomes across the cancer continuum, including incidence, diagnosis, treatment, survivorship, and survival. The commonalities and differences in methodologies across studies, the current challenges in research methodology, and future directions in this research also were addressed. The assessment of social and built environment factors in relation to cancer is a relatively new field, with 82% of the 34 reviewed articles published since 2010. Across the wide range of social and built environment exposures and cancer outcomes considered by the studies, numerous associations were reported. However, the directions and magnitudes of associations varied, in large part because of the variation in cancer sites and outcomes studied, but also likely because of differences in study populations, geographic regions, and, importantly, choice of neighborhood measures and geographic scales. The authors recommend that future studies consider the life-course implications of cancer incidence and survival, integrate secondary and self-report data, consider work neighborhood environments, and further develop analytical and statistical approaches appropriate to the geospatial and multilevel nature of the data. Incorporating social and built environment factors into research on cancer etiology and outcomes can provide insights into disease processes, identify vulnerable populations, and generate results with translational impact of relevance for interventionists and policy makers. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Galaxies in the X-Ray Band

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hornschemeier, Ann

2008-01-01

This talk will provide a brief review of progress an X-ray emission from normal (non-AGN) galaxy populations, including important constraints on the evolution of accreting binary populations over important cosmological timescales. We will also look to the future, anticipating constraints from near-term imaging hard X-ray missions such as NuSTAR, Simbol-X and NeXT and then the longer-term prospects for studying galaxies with the Generation-X mission,

Galaxies in the X-ray Band

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hornschemeier, Ann

2008-01-01

This talk will provide a brief review of progress on X-ray emission from normal (non-AGN) galaxy populations, including important constraints on the evolution of accreting binary populations over important cosmological timescales. We will also look to the future, anticipating constraints from near-term imaging hard X-ray missions such as NuSTAR, Simbol-X and NeXT and then the longer-term prospects for studying galaxies with the Generation-X mission.

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA.

PubMed

Hixson, Mark; Mahmud, Abdullah; Hu, Jianlin; Kleeman, Michael J

2012-05-01

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).

Social deprivation influences the epidemiology and outcome of proximal humeral fractures in adults for a defined urban population of Scotland.

PubMed

Clement, N D; McQueen, M M; Court-Brown, C M

2014-10-01

We present the epidemiology and incidence of proximal humeral fractures over a 17-year period for a defined urban population that represents approximately 13% of the population in Scotland, and functional outcome in relation to the socio-economic status of the patient. The incidence of proximal humeral fractures significantly increased during the study period from 47.9/10(5)/year to 98.7/10(5)/year in 2008 (p < 0.0001), which was greatest for the most socially deprived patients reaching 274.2/10(5)/year in 2008 (p < 0.0001). The most deprived patients sustained their fracture 4 years earlier than the most affluent patients (p = 0.026). Social deprivation was an independent predictor, after adjusting for other confounding variables using multivariable regression analysis, of a significantly worse functional outcome according to the Constant score at 1 year (p = 0.046). Preventative measures, especially for the most socially deprived patients within society, need to be instigated urgently to address the increasing incidence of proximal humeral fractures and alleviate the burden of these morbid fractures in the future. Whether the observed increased incidence is generalisable to a national population would need to be confirmed in future studies.

Comparing schizophrenia symptoms in the Iban of Sarawak with other populations to elucidate clinical heterogeneity.

PubMed

McLean, Duncan; Barrett, Robert; Loa, Peter; Thara, Rangaswamy; John, Sujit; McGrath, John; Gratten, Jake; Mowry, Bryan

2015-03-01

The symptom profile of schizophrenia can vary between ethnic groups. We explored selected symptom variables previously reported to be characteristic of schizophrenia in the Iban of Sarawak in transethnic populations from Australia, India, and Sarawak, Malaysia. We tested site differences to confirm previous research, and to explore implications of differences across populations for future investigations. We recruited schizophrenia samples in Australia (n = 609), India (n = 310) and Sarawak (n = 205) primarily for the purposes of genetic studies. We analyzed seven identified variables and their relationship to site using logistic regression, including: global delusions, bizarre delusions, thought broadcast/insertion/withdrawal delusions, global hallucinations, auditory hallucinations, disorganized behavior, and prodromal duration. We identified a distinct symptom profile in our Sarawak sample. Specifically, the Iban exhibit: low frequency of thought broadcast/insertion/withdrawal delusions, high frequency of auditory hallucinations and disorganized behavior, with a comparatively short prodrome when compared with Australian and Indian populations. Understanding between-site variation in symptom profile may complement future transethnic genetic studies, and provide important clues as to the nature of differing schizophrenia expression across ethnically distinct groups. A comprehensive approach to subtyping schizophrenia is warranted, utilizing comprehensively ascertained transethnic samples to inform both schizophrenia genetics and nosology. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

PICALM gene rs3851179 polymorphism contributes to Alzheimer's disease in an Asian population.

PubMed

Liu, Guiyou; Zhang, Shuyan; Cai, Zhiyou; Ma, Guoda; Zhang, Liangcai; Jiang, Yongshuai; Feng, Rennan; Liao, Mingzhi; Chen, Zugen; Zhao, Bin; Li, Keshen

2013-06-01

PICALM gene rs3851179 polymorphism was reported to an Alzheimer's disease (AD) susceptibility locus in a Caucasian population. However, recent studies reported consistent and inconsistent results in an Asian population. Four studies indicated no association between rs3851179 and AD in a Chinese population and one study reported weak association in a Japanese population. We consider that the failure to replicate the significant association between rs3851179 and AD may be caused by at least two reasons. The first reason may be the genetic heterogeneity in AD among different populations, and the second may be the relatively small sample size compared with large-scale GWAS in Caucasian ancestry. In order to confirm this view, in this research, we first evaluated the genetic heterogeneity of rs3851179 polymorphism in Caucasian and Asian populations. We then investigated rs3851179 polymorphism in an Asian population by a pooled analysis method and a meta-analysis method. We did not observe significant genetic heterogeneity of rs3851179 in the Caucasian and Asian populations. Our results indicate that rs3851179 polymorphism is significantly associated with AD in the Asian population by both pooled analysis and meta-analysis methods. We believe that our findings will be very useful for future genetic studies in AD.

Measuring informed choice in population-based reproductive genetic screening: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Ames, Alice Grace; Metcalfe, Sylvia Ann; Archibald, Alison Dalton; Duncan, Rony Emily; Emery, Jon

2015-01-01

Genetic screening and health-care guidelines recommend that programmes should facilitate informed choice. It is therefore important that accurate measures of informed choice are available to evaluate such programmes. This review synthesises and appraises measures used to evaluate informed choice in population-based genetic screening programmes for reproductive risk. Databases were searched for studies offering genetic screening for the purpose of establishing reproductive risk to an adult population sample, in which aspects of informed choice were measured. Studies were included if, at a minimum, measures of uptake of screening and knowledge were used. Searches identified 1462 citations and 76 studies were reviewed in full text; 34 studies met the inclusion criteria. Over 20 different measures of informed choice were used. Many measures lacked adequate validity and reliability data. This systematic review will inform future evaluation of informed choice in population genetic screening programmes. PMID:24848746

Predicted extinction of unique genetic diversity in marine forests of Cystoseira spp.

PubMed

Buonomo, Roberto; Chefaoui, Rosa M; Lacida, Ricardo Bermejo; Engelen, Aschwin H; Serrão, Ester A; Airoldi, Laura

2018-07-01

Climate change is inducing shifts in species ranges across the globe. These can affect the genetic pools of species, including loss of genetic variability and evolutionary potential. In particular, geographically enclosed ecosystems, like the Mediterranean Sea, have a higher risk of suffering species loss and genetic erosion due to barriers to further range shifts and to dispersal. In this study, we address these questions for three habitat-forming seaweed species, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, C. amentacea and C. compressa, throughout their entire ranges in the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. We aim to 1) describe their population genetic structure and diversity, 2) model the present and predict the future distribution and 3) assess the consequences of predicted future range shifts for their population genetic structure, according to two contrasting future climate change scenarios. A net loss of suitable areas was predicted in both climatic scenarios across the range of distribution of the three species. This loss was particularly severe for C. amentacea in the Mediterranean Sea (less 90% in the most extreme climatic scenario), suggesting that the species could become potentially at extinction risk. For all species, genetic data showed very differentiated populations, indicating low inter-population connectivity, and high and distinct genetic diversity in areas that were predicted to become lost, causing erosion of unique evolutionary lineages. Our results indicated that the Mediterranean Sea is the most threatened region, where future suitable Cystoseira habitats will become more limited. This is likely to have wider ecosystem impacts as there is a lack of species with the same ecological niche and functional role in the Mediterranean. The projected accelerated loss of already fragmented and disturbed populations and the long-term genetic effects highlight the urge for local scale management strategies that sustain the capacity of these habitat-forming species to persist despite climatic impacts while waiting for global emission reductions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of genomics in the neonatal ICU.

PubMed

Maresso, Karen; Broeckel, Ulrich

2009-03-01

Results of both the Human Genome and International HapMap Projects have provided the technology and resources necessary to enable fundamental advances through the study of DNA sequence variation in almost all fields of medicine, including neonatology. Genome-wide association studies are now practical, and the first of these studies are appearing in the literature. This article provides the reader with an overview of the issues in technology and study design relating to genome-wide association studies and summarizes the current state of association studies in neonatal ICU populations with a brief review of the relevant literature. Future recommendations for genomic association studies in neonatal ICU populations are also provided.

Household water demand and welfare loss for future Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; Lanzanova, Denis; de Roo, Ad

2015-04-01

Matching the availability of water to its demand in Europe is a major challenge for the future due to expected economic and demographic developments and climate change. This means there is a growing need to estimate future water demand and to optimize the water allocation to all end users to counteract welfare loss. At the European scale it is currently not possible to assess the impact of social and economic changes on future water demand or to prioritize water allocation amongst different sectors based on economic damage without extensive use of assumptions and generalizations. Indeed, our review of existing regional optimization models for Europe reveals that the social-economic component of the water use system needs to be improved by complementing them with detailed water use estimates and cost/benefit functions in order to determine the optimal situation. Our study contributes to closing this knowledge gap for the European household sector by quantifying future water demand and the effect of water pricing, as well as providing a method for the calculation of monetary damage due to unmet demand at the highest spatial resolution possible. We used a water demand function approach in which household water consumption depends upon some exogenous drivers including water price, household income, population and household characteristics and climate conditions. For each European country, the annual water consumption per capita was calculated at regional level (NUTS3) and subsequently disaggregated to five kilometer grid level based on a population density map. In order to produce estimates of water demand, the evolution of the explanatory variables of the water demand functions and population density map were simulated until 2050 based on related variables such as GDP and demographic projections. The results of this study will be integrated into the JRC hydro-economic modelling framework for an assessment of the Water-Agriculture-Energy-Ecosystems Nexus.

A multimodal approach to meeting older adult transportation needs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

America is graying and, therefore, the aging of the population will require rethinking : everything. Transportation infrastructure, vehicles and future demand must respond to : the aging of the nations largest generation. This study conducted an as...

A genomics study of type 2 diabetes mellitus in U.S. Air Force personnel.

PubMed

Lott, Lisa

2009-07-01

The military community is at high risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D), especially as it relates to military beneficiaries, although preventive measures can be implemented to reduce disease onset. This study evaluates the prevalence of risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms in patients diagnosed with T2D within active duty, retired military, and military-dependent populations on Lackland Air Force Base compared to nondiabetic controls. Results will be used as a basis of comparison to analyze risk-conferring genotypes in the young, healthy active duty population to generate the prevalence of T2D risk-associated factors in our current and future war fighters. Identifying genetic markers of T2D prior to abnormal glucose control and insulin resistance may ultimately adjust future risk through early detection, healthy lifestyle modifications, and disease management programs. Copyright 2009 Diabetes Technology Society.

Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis

PubMed Central

Maniscalco, John M.; Springer, Alan M.; Adkison, Milo D.; Parker, Pamela

2015-01-01

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality. PMID:26488901

Ventral–striatal responsiveness during reward anticipation in ADHD and its relation to trait impulsivity in the healthy population: A meta-analytic review of the fMRI literature

PubMed Central

Plichta, Michael M.; Scheres, Anouk

2013-01-01

A review of the existing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies on reward anticipation in patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is provided. Meta-analysis showed a significant medium effect size (Cohen’s d = 0.48–0.58) in terms of ventral–striatal (VS)-hyporesponsiveness in ADHD. Studies on VS-responsiveness and trait impulsivity in the healthy population demonstrate the opposite relationship, i.e. impulsivity-scores positively correlated with VS activation during reward processing. Against the background that ADHD may represent an extreme on a continuum of normal variability, the question arises as to how these contrasting findings can be integrated. We discuss three theoretical approaches, each of which integrates the opposing findings: (1) an inverted-u-shape model; (2) a (genetic) moderator model; and (3) the “unrelated model”. We conclude that at the present stage the number of existing studies in the healthy population as well as in ADHD groups is too small for a final answer. Therefore, our presented integrative approaches should be understood as an attempt to frame future research directions by generating testable hypotheses and giving practical suggestions for future studies. PMID:23928090

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 - Consequences for Blood Donation.

PubMed

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-06-01

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

Evaluating a fish monitoring protocol using state-space hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Schmetterling, David A.; Guy, Chris S.; Shepard, Bradley B.; McFarland, Robert; Skaar, Donald

2012-01-01

Using data collected from three river reaches in Montana, we evaluated our ability to detect population trends and predict fish future fish abundance. Data were collected as part of a long-term monitoring program conducted by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks to primarily estimate rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) abundance in numerous rivers across Montana. We used a hierarchical Bayesian mark-recapture model to estimate fish abundance over time in each of the three river reaches. We then fit a state-space Gompertz model to estimate current trends and future fish populations. Density dependent effects were detected in 1 of the 6 fish populations. Predictions of future fish populations displayed wide credible intervals. Our simulations indicated that given the observed variation in the abundance estimates, the probability of detecting a 30% decline in fish populations over a five-year period was less than 50%. We recommend a monitoring program that is closely tied to management objectives and reflects the precision necessary to make informed management decisions.

P.E.O.P.L.E. 32: B.C. College Region Population Projections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development, 2007

2007-01-01

Each year BC Stats, Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services, projects the population of British Columbia (BC) and its regions. These projections are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration levels. Assumptions are derived from demographic trends modified to include potential impacts of future economic factors. The…

Phenomenological Characteristics of Future Thinking in Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Moustafa, Ahmed A; El Haj, Mohamad

2018-05-11

This study investigates phenomenological reliving of future thinking in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients and matched controls. All participants were asked to imagine in detail a future event, and afterward, were asked to rate phenomenological characteristics of their future thinking. As compared to controls, AD participants showed poor rating for reliving, travel in time, visual imagery, auditory imagery, language, and spatiotemporal specificity. However, no significant differences were observed between both groups in emotion and importance of future thinking. Results also showed lower rating for visual imagery relative to remaining phenomenological features in AD participants compared to controls; conversely, these participants showed higher ratings for emotion and importance of future thinking. AD seems to compromise some phenomenological characteristics of future thinking, especially, visual imagery; however, other phenomenological characteristics, such as emotion, seem to be relatively preserved in these populations. By highlighting the phenomenological experience of future thinking in AD, our paper opens a unique window into the conscious experience of the future in AD patients.

Importance of plasticity and local adaptation for coping with changing salinity in coastal areas: a test case with barnacles in the Baltic Sea

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Salinity plays an important role in shaping coastal marine communities. Near-future climate predictions indicate that salinity will decrease in many shallow coastal areas due to increased precipitation; however, few studies have addressed this issue. The ability of ecosystems to cope with future changes will depend on species’ capacities to acclimatise or adapt to new environmental conditions. Here, we investigated the effects of a strong salinity gradient (the Baltic Sea system – Baltic, Kattegat, Skagerrak) on plasticity and adaptations in the euryhaline barnacle Balanus improvisus. We used a common-garden approach, where multiple batches of newly settled barnacles from each of three different geographical areas along the Skagerrak-Baltic salinity gradient were exposed to corresponding native salinities (6, 15 and 30 PSU), and phenotypic traits including mortality, growth, shell strength, condition index and reproductive maturity were recorded. Results We found that B. improvisus was highly euryhaline, but had highest growth and reproductive maturity at intermediate salinities. We also found that low salinity had negative effects on other fitness-related traits including initial growth and shell strength, although mortality was also lowest in low salinity. Overall, differences between populations in most measured traits were weak, indicating little local adaptation to salinity. Nonetheless, we observed some population-specific responses – notably that populations from high salinity grew stronger shells in their native salinity compared to the other populations, possibly indicating adaptation to differences in local predation pressure. Conclusions Our study shows that B. improvisus is an example of a true brackish-water species, and that plastic responses are more likely than evolutionary tracking in coping with future changes in coastal salinity. PMID:25038588

The usefulness and actual use of wearable devices among the elderly population.

PubMed

Kekade, Shwetambara; Hseieh, Chung-Ho; Islam, Md Mohaimenul; Atique, Suleman; Mohammed Khalfan, Abdulwahed; Li, Yu-Chuan; Abdul, Shabbir Syed

2018-01-01

Elderly populations are more prone to diseases and need continuous monitoring of parameters to ensure good health. Wearable devices (WDs) can be helpful in the early detection and management of medical conditions. However, less is known about the use of currently available WDs among elderly populations. The objectives of this study were to determine the usefulness and actual use of wearable devices among the elderly population. Our methodology was based on a systematic review and a survey questionnaire. In the systematic review, search was conducted in four databases PubMed, MDPI, Sage, and Scopus with search terms "wearable device" and "elderly", "wearable sensor" and "elderly". The inclusion criteria were the studies which described health-related wearable devices, its use as the outcome, conducted on a minimum of ten participants and published in the last five years. The survey was conducted on the MOOCs (Massive Open Online Course) platform. The questionnaire was related to the use of technology, intention to use, security and privacy concerns, and willingness to pay. The review identified 4915 articles, of which, 31 studies eventually met the inclusion criteria. All studies reported positive impacts after assessing devices, despite certain drawbacks. The majority of the samples were males. The survey revealed responses from 233 individuals out of the 1100 participants of the course. The survey results were categorized into two age groups: 54.3% were elderly (>65 years) and 45.49% were non-elderly (≤65 years). Very few elderly people were currently using WD. More than 60% of elderly people were interested in the future use of wearable devices, and preferred future use to improve physical and mental activities. A majority of the respondents were female. This study suggests awareness should be created among elderly populations regarding the use of WDs for the early detection and prevention of complications and emergencies. Elderly populations are more prone to benefits from using WDs. The review concluded that devices should be tested on elderly groups as well, considering sex equality, and on both healthy and sick participants for better insights. The survey determined the elderly as frequent users of technology, but lack of knowledge of WD and demonstrated female interest in the use of WD. In future research on WDs, it is suggested that clinical studies be conducted for longer durations, and standard protocols such as age and sex equality should be considered. Requirements from both users and physicians should be acknowledged for better cognizance of WDs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of 10 new nuclear microsatellite markers in Acca sellowiana (Myrtaceae).

PubMed

Klabunde, Gustavo H F; Olkoski, Denise; Vilperte, Vinicius; Zucchi, Maria I; Nodari, Rubens O

2014-06-01

Microsatellite primers were identified and characterized in Acca sellowiana in order to expand the limited number of pre-existing polymorphic markers for use in population genetic studies for conservation, phylogeography, breeding, and domestication. • A total of 10 polymorphic microsatellite primers were designed from clones obtained from a simple sequence repeat (SSR)-enriched genomic library. The primers amplified di- and trinucleotide repeats with four to 27 alleles per locus. In all tested populations, the observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.269 to 1.0. • These new polymorphic SSR markers will allow future genetic studies to be denser, either for genetic structure characterization of natural populations or for studies involving genetic breeding and domestication process in A. sellowiana.

The Orbital Debris Problem and the Challenges for Environment Remediation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J.-C.

2013-01-01

Orbital debris scientists from major international space agencies, including JAXA and NASA, have worked together to predict the trend of the future environment. A summary presentation was given to the United Nations in February 2013. The orbital debris population in LEO will continue to increase. Catastrophic collisions will continue to occur every 5 to 9 years center dot To limit the growth of the future debris population and to better protect future spacecraft, active debris removal, should be considered.

Correlations in fertility across generations: can low fertility persist?

PubMed

Kolk, Martin; Cownden, Daniel; Enquist, Magnus

2014-03-22

Correlations in family size across generations could have a major influence on human population size in the future. Empirical studies have shown that the associations between the fertility of parents and the fertility of children are substantial and growing over time. Despite their potential long-term consequences, intergenerational fertility correlations have largely been ignored by researchers. We present a model of the fertility transition as a cultural process acting on new lifestyles associated with fertility. Differences in parental and social influences on the acquisition of these lifestyles result in intergenerational correlations in fertility. We show different scenarios for future population size based on models that disregard intergenerational correlations in fertility, models with fertility correlations and a single lifestyle, and models with fertility correlations and multiple lifestyles. We show that intergenerational fertility correlations will result in an increase in fertility over time. However, present low-fertility levels may persist if the rapid introduction of new cultural lifestyles continues into the future.

Correlations in fertility across generations: can low fertility persist?

PubMed Central

Kolk, Martin; Cownden, Daniel; Enquist, Magnus

2014-01-01

Correlations in family size across generations could have a major influence on human population size in the future. Empirical studies have shown that the associations between the fertility of parents and the fertility of children are substantial and growing over time. Despite their potential long-term consequences, intergenerational fertility correlations have largely been ignored by researchers. We present a model of the fertility transition as a cultural process acting on new lifestyles associated with fertility. Differences in parental and social influences on the acquisition of these lifestyles result in intergenerational correlations in fertility. We show different scenarios for future population size based on models that disregard intergenerational correlations in fertility, models with fertility correlations and a single lifestyle, and models with fertility correlations and multiple lifestyles. We show that intergenerational fertility correlations will result in an increase in fertility over time. However, present low-fertility levels may persist if the rapid introduction of new cultural lifestyles continues into the future. PMID:24478294

Projecting the Demand for Dental Care in 2040.

PubMed

Manski, Richard J; Meyerhoefer, Chad D

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a forward-thinking assessment of the underlying factors likely to impact trends in dental care demand and the need for dental providers in 2020, 2025, and beyond. Dental workforce trends and their likely impact on the need for dentists are a function of predicted dental care demand, which will in turn be determined by the size and characteristics of our population size, economic outlook, the state of public and private dental care insurance, trends in dental care delivery, professionally determined dental care need, and population health beliefs. Projecting rates of dental care utilization far into the future is difficult because projections must be made using historical data, and established trends may not persist if there is structural change in the future. Nonetheless, when structural change occurs, it does not typically affect all aspects of the economy, so there is value in describing the likely future impact of current trends. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

The health effects of hotter summers and heat waves in the population of the United Kingdom: a review of the evidence.

PubMed

Arbuthnott, Katherine G; Hajat, Shakoor

2017-12-05

It is widely acknowledged that the climate is warming globally and within the UK. In this paper, studies which assess the direct impact of current increased temperatures and heat-waves on health and those which project future health impacts of heat under different climate change scenarios in the UK are reviewed.This review finds that all UK studies demonstrate an increase in heat-related mortality occurring at temperatures above threshold values, with respiratory deaths being more sensitive to heat than deaths from cardiovascular disease (although the burden from cardiovascular deaths is greater in absolute terms). The relationship between heat and other health outcomes such as hospital admissions, myocardial infarctions and birth outcomes is less consistent. We highlight the main populations who are vulnerable to heat. Within the UK, these are older populations, those with certain co-morbidities and those living in Greater London, the South East and Eastern regions.In all assessments of heat-related impacts using different climate change scenarios, deaths are expected to increase due to hotter temperatures, with some studies demonstrating that an increase in the elderly population will also amplify burdens. However, key gaps in knowledge are found in relation to how urbanisation and population adaptation to heat will affect health impacts, and in relation to current and future strategies for effective, sustainable and equitable adaptation to heat. These and other key gaps in knowledge, both in terms of research needs and knowledge required to make sound public- health policy, are discussed.

Rice Root Architectural Plasticity Traits and Genetic Regions for Adaptability to Variable Cultivation and Stress Conditions1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Sandhu, Nitika; Raman, K. Anitha; Torres, Rolando O.; Audebert, Alain; Dardou, Audrey; Kumar, Arvind; Henry, Amelia

2016-01-01

Future rice (Oryza sativa) crops will likely experience a range of growth conditions, and root architectural plasticity will be an important characteristic to confer adaptability across variable environments. In this study, the relationship between root architectural plasticity and adaptability (i.e. yield stability) was evaluated in two traditional × improved rice populations (Aus 276 × MTU1010 and Kali Aus × MTU1010). Forty contrasting genotypes were grown in direct-seeded upland and transplanted lowland conditions with drought and drought + rewatered stress treatments in lysimeter and field studies and a low-phosphorus stress treatment in a Rhizoscope study. Relationships among root architectural plasticity for root dry weight, root length density, and percentage lateral roots with yield stability were identified. Selected genotypes that showed high yield stability also showed a high degree of root plasticity in response to both drought and low phosphorus. The two populations varied in the soil depth effect on root architectural plasticity traits, none of which resulted in reduced grain yield. Root architectural plasticity traits were related to 13 (Aus 276 population) and 21 (Kali Aus population) genetic loci, which were contributed by both the traditional donor parents and MTU1010. Three genomic loci were identified as hot spots with multiple root architectural plasticity traits in both populations, and one locus for both root architectural plasticity and grain yield was detected. These results suggest an important role of root architectural plasticity across future rice crop conditions and provide a starting point for marker-assisted selection for plasticity. PMID:27342311

Psychiatric genetics in China: achievements and challenges

PubMed Central

Schulze, Thomas G.; Burmeister, Margit; Sham, Pak Chung; Yao, Yong-gang; Kuo, Po-Hsiu; Chen, Chao; An, Yu; Dai, Jiapei; Yue, Weihua; Li, Miao Xin; Xue, Hong; Su, Bing; Chen, Li; Shi, Yongyong; Qiao, Mingqi; Liu, Tiebang; Xia, Kun; Chan, Raymond C.K.

2016-01-01

To coordinate research efforts in psychiatric genetics in China, a group of Chinese and foreign investigators have established an annual “Summit on Chinese Psychiatric Genetics” to present their latest research and discuss the current state and future directions of this field. To date, two Summits have been held, the first in Changsha in April, 2014, and the second in Kunming in April, 2015. The consensus of roundtable discussions held at these meetings is that psychiatric genetics in China is in need of new policies to promote collaborations aimed at creating a framework for genetic research appropriate for the Chinese population: relying solely on Caucasian population-based studies may result in missed opportunities to diagnose and treat psychiatric disorders. In addition, participants agree on the importance of promoting collaborations and data sharing in areas where China has especially strong resources, such as advanced facilities for non-human primate studies and traditional Chinese medicine: areas that may also provide overseas investigators with unique research opportunities. In this paper, we present an overview of the current state of psychiatric genetics research in China, with emphasis on genome-level studies, and describe challenges and opportunities for future advances, particularly at the dawn of “precision medicine.” Together, we call on administrative bodies, funding agencies, the research community, and the public at large for increased support for research on the genetic basis of psychiatric disorders in the Chinese population. In our opinion, increased public awareness and effective collaborative research hold the keys to the future of psychiatric genetics in China. PMID:26481319

Evolution and population genomics of the Lyme borreliosis pathogen, Borrelia burgdorferi.

PubMed

Seifert, Stephanie N; Khatchikian, Camilo E; Zhou, Wei; Brisson, Dustin

2015-04-01

Population genomic studies have the potential to address many unresolved questions about microbial pathogens by facilitating the identification of genes underlying ecologically important traits, such as novel virulence factors and adaptations to humans or other host species. Additionally, this framework improves estimations of population demography and evolutionary history to accurately reconstruct recent epidemics and identify the molecular and environmental factors that resulted in the outbreak. The Lyme disease bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, exemplifies the power and promise of the application of population genomics to microbial pathogens. We discuss here the future of evolutionary studies in B. burgdorferi, focusing on the primary evolutionary forces of horizontal gene transfer, natural selection, and migration, as investigations transition from analyses of single genes to genomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

P450 Pharmacogenetics in Indigenous North American Populations

PubMed Central

Claw, Katrina G.; Robinson, Renee F.; Boyer, Bert B.; Burke, Wylie; Thummel, Kenneth E.

2018-01-01

Indigenous North American populations, including American Indian and Alaska Native peoples in the United States, the First Nations, Métis and Inuit peoples in Canada and Amerindians in Mexico, are historically under-represented in biomedical research, including genomic research on drug disposition and response. Without adequate representation in pharmacogenetic studies establishing genotype-phenotype relationships, Indigenous populations may not benefit fully from new innovations in precision medicine testing to tailor and improve the safety and efficacy of drug treatment, resulting in health care disparities. The purpose of this review is to summarize and evaluate what is currently known about cytochrome P450 genetic variation in Indigenous populations in North America and to highlight the importance of including these groups in future pharmacogenetic studies for implementation of personalized drug therapy. PMID:29389890

Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of the Critically Endangered Yangtze Finless Porpoise (Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis) as Revealed by Mitochondrial and Microsatellite DNA

PubMed Central

Chen, Minmin; Zheng, Jinsong; Wu, Min; Ruan, Rui; Zhao, Qingzhong; Wang, Ding

2014-01-01

Ecological surveys have indicated that the population of the critically endangered Yangtze finless porpoise (YFP, Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis) is becoming increasingly small and fragmented, and will be at high risk of extinction in the near future. Genetic conservation of this population will be an important component of the long-term conservation effort. We used a 597 base pair mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and 11 microsatellite loci to analyze the genetic diversity and population structure of the YFP. The analysis of both mtDNA and microsatellite loci suggested that the genetic diversity of the YFP will possibly decrease in the future if the population keeps declining at a rapid rate, even though these two types of markers revealed different levels of genetic diversity. In addition, mtDNA revealed strong genetic differentiation between one local population, Xingchang–Shishou (XCSS), and the other five downstream local populations; furthermore, microsatellite DNA unveiled fine but significant genetic differentiation between three of the local populations (not only XCSS but also Poyang Lake (PY) and Tongling (TL)) and the other local populations. With an increasing number of distribution gaps appearing in the Yangtze main steam, the genetic differentiation of local populations will likely intensify in the future. The YFP is becoming a genetically fragmented population. Therefore, we recommend attention should be paid to the genetic conservation of the YFP. PMID:24968271

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

PubMed Central

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B.; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-01-01

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period’s discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing—rather than merely cost savings—again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. PMID:29087298

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

PubMed

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-11-14

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

PubMed

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Campus Support Services, Programs, and Policies for International Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bista, Krishna, Ed.; Foster, Charlotte, Ed.

2016-01-01

Study abroad programs have proven beneficial for both the international student as well as the domestic community and school population interacting with the student. In an effort to promote cultural awareness, intercultural communications as well as opportunities for future study abroad program success, universities must take care to provide…

Offshore marine constructions as propagators of moon jellyfish dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vodopivec, Martin; Peliz, Álvaro J.; Malej, Alenka

2017-08-01

We have studied the influence of offshore marine constructions on the moon jellyfish population in the Adriatic sea, where the newly set up substrates enable the formation of a new population based in the formerly unpopulated open waters. Our five-year long computer simulation uses a high resolution coupled bio-physical individual-based model to track the dispersal of the offspring from subpopulations originating from offshore and shore-based sources. According to our study, the platforms enhance connectivity between subpopulations of jellyfish polyps, help sustain existing shore-based subpopulations, contribute to jellyfish blooms in some areas, and play an important role in establishing connection with the rest of the Mediterranean, in addition to representing substantial amounts of available substrate. This is an aspect that is usually overlooked when evaluating the ecological impact of existing and future wind farms, oil and gas platforms, etc. Our approach could serve as a role model in future studies of ecological impacts of planned offshore constructions.

Origins of Semisulcospira libertina (gastropoda: semisulcospiridae) in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chiu, Yuh-Wen; Bor, Hor; Kuo, Po-Hsun; Hsu, Kui-Ching; Tan, Mian-Shin; Wang, Wei-Kuang; Lin, Hung-Du

2017-07-01

The most accepted hypothesis has suggested that the fauna in Taiwan Island originated from South China, but some studies supported the Japan, Ryukyu Archipelago, and Taiwan Islands as a unique biogeographical district. This study examines whether the populations of freshwater snail Semisulcospira libertina in Taiwan are closer to those in Japan based on the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene sequences. Our study shows the populations in North Taiwan originated from Japan and the cyclic glacial caused the migrations among islands and continent repeatedly; the populations in South Taiwan might originate from South China or South Asia. Our results will not only affect the conclusions in phylogeography of freshwater species in Taiwan but also change the sampling plans in the future studies about evolutionary of freshwater species in East Asia.

Characterization of 10 new nuclear microsatellite markers in Acca sellowiana (Myrtaceae)1

PubMed Central

Klabunde, Gustavo H. F.; Olkoski, Denise; Vilperte, Vinicius; Zucchi, Maria I.; Nodari, Rubens O.

2014-01-01

• Premise of the study: Microsatellite primers were identified and characterized in Acca sellowiana in order to expand the limited number of pre-existing polymorphic markers for use in population genetic studies for conservation, phylogeography, breeding, and domestication. • Methods and Results: A total of 10 polymorphic microsatellite primers were designed from clones obtained from a simple sequence repeat (SSR)–enriched genomic library. The primers amplified di- and trinucleotide repeats with four to 27 alleles per locus. In all tested populations, the observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.269 to 1.0. • Conclusions: These new polymorphic SSR markers will allow future genetic studies to be denser, either for genetic structure characterization of natural populations or for studies involving genetic breeding and domestication process in A. sellowiana. PMID:25202632

Modeling metapopulation dynamics for single species of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, P.A.; Downer, R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Seabirds share many characteristics setting them apart from other birds. Importantly, they breed more or less obligatorily in local clusters of colonies that can move regularly from site to site, and they routinely exchange breeders. The properties of such metapopulations have only recently begun to be examined, often with models that are occupancy-based (using only colony presence or absence data) and deterministic (using single, empirically determined values for each of several population biology parameters). Some recent models are now frequency-based (using actual population sizes at each site), as well as stochastic (randomly varying critical parameters between biologically realistic limits), yielding better estimates of the behavior of future populations. Using two such models designed to quantify relative risks of population changes under different future scenarios (RAMAS/stage and RAMAS/space), we have examined probable future populations dynamics for three hypothetical seabirds -- an albatross, a cormorant, and a tern. With real parameters and ranges of values we alternatively modelled each species with and without density dependence, as well as with their numbers in a single, large colony, or in many smaller ones, distributed evenly or lognormally. We produced a series of species-typical lines for different population risks over the 50 years we simulated. We call these curves Instantaneous Threat Assessments (ITAs), and their shapes mirror the varying life history characteristics of our three species. We also demonstrated (by a process known as sensitivity analysis) that the most important parameters determining future population fates of all three species were correlation of mean growth rate among colonies; dispersal rate of present and future breeders; subadult survivorship; and the number of subpopulations (=colonies) - in roughly that descending order of importance. In addition, density dependence was found to markedly alter ITA line shape and position, dramatically in the tern. Finally, we show that for each of our three seabirds, a substantial reduction in the risk of the entire population's going to extinction was provided by a metapopulation (i.e. colonial) breeding structure -- thus comfortably confirming what avian ecologists have long known but about which population modellers are somtimes still unsure.

Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis.

PubMed

Ercin, A Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2014-03-01

This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the water footprint (WF) of production and consumption for possible futures by region and to elaborate the main drivers of this change. In addition, we assess virtual water flows between the regions of the world to show dependencies of regions on water resources in other regions under different possible futures. We constructed four scenarios, along two axes, representing two key dimensions of uncertainty: globalization versus regional selfsufficiency, and economy-driven development versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows how different drivers will change the level of water consumption and pollution globally in 2050. The presented scenarios can form a basis for a further assessment of how humanity can mitigate future freshwater scarcity. We showed with this study that reducing humanity's water footprint to sustainable levels is possible even with increasing populations, provided that consumption patterns change. This study can help to guide corrective policies at both national and international levels, and to set priorities for the years ahead in order to achieve sustainable and equitable use of the world's fresh water resources. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

2014-03-01

Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The association between urinary calculi and increased risk of future cardiovascular events: A nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Hsu, Chien-Yi; Chen, Yung-Tai; Huang, Po-Hsun; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Su, Yu-Wen; Chiang, Chia-Hung; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Lin, Shing-Jong; Chan, Wan-Leong

2016-05-01

Although accumulating evidence suggests urinary calculi may be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the number of longitudinal studies linking urolithiasis to CVD events is limited. We investigated the association between urinary calculi and the risk of development of myocardial infarction (MI) and/or stroke in a nationwide, population-based cohort database in Taiwan. Our analyses were conducted using information from a random sample of 1 million people enrolled in the nationally representative Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 81,546 subjects aged 18 years or above, including 40,773 subjects diagnosed with urinary calculi during the study period and a propensity score-matched 40,773 subjects without urinary calculi were enrolled in our study. During a 10-year follow-up period, 501 MI events and 1295 stroke events were identified. By comparison, the urinary calculi group had a higher incidence rate of MI occurrence (11.79 vs 8.94 per 10,000 person-years) and stroke (31.41 vs 22.45 per 10,000 person-years). Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis showed that development of urinary calculi was independently associated with higher risk of developing future MI (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.09-1.56, p=0.003), stroke (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.24-1.55, p<0.001), and total cardiovascular events (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.25-1.51, p<0.001). Urinary calculi were associated with an increased risk of future cardiovascular events in the Asian population, which was consistent with the recent epidemiologic evidence in Western countries. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulated climate change conditions unveil the toxic potential of the fungicide pyrimethanil on the midge Chironomus riparius: a multigeneration experiment

PubMed Central

Müller, Ruth; Seeland, Anne; Jagodzinski, Lucas S; Diogo, Joao B; Nowak, Carsten; Oehlmann, Jörg

2012-01-01

Although it has been suggested that temperature increase may alter the toxic potential of environmental pollutants, few studies have investigated the potential risk of chemical stressors for wildlife under Global Climate Change (GCC) impact. We applied a bifactorial multigeneration study in order to test if GCC conditions alter the effects of low pesticide concentrations on life history and genetic diversity of the aquatic model organism Chironomus riparius. Experimental populations of the species were chronically exposed to a low concentration of the fungicide pyrimethanil (half of the no-observed-adverse-effect concentration: NOAEC/2) under two dynamic present-day temperature simulations (11.0–22.7°C; 14.0–25.2°C) and one future scenario (16.5–28.1°C). During the 140-day multigeneration study, survival, emergence, reproduction, population growth, and genetic diversity of C. riparius were analyzed. Our results reveal that high temperature and pyrimethanil act synergistically on the midge C. riparius. In simulated present-day scenarios, a NOAEC/2 of pyrimethanil as derived from a life-cycle toxicity test provoked only slight-to-moderate beneficial or adverse effects on C. riparius. In contrast, exposure to a NOAEC/2 concentration of pyrimethanil at a thermal situation likely for a summer under GCC conditions uncovered adverse effects on mortality and population growth rate. In addition, genetic diversity was considerably reduced by pyrimethanil in the future scenario, but only slightly under current climatic conditions. Our multigeneration study under near-natural (climatic) conditions indicates that not only the impact of climate change, but also low concentrations of pesticides may pose a reasonable risk for aquatic insects in future. PMID:22408736

Ecotoxicology of mercury in fish and wildlife: Recent advances

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scheuhammer, Anton M.; Basu, Niladri; Evers, David C.; Heinz, Gary H.; Sandheinrich, Mark B.; Bank, Michael S.; edited by Bank, Michael S.; Bank, Michael S.

2012-01-01

A number of recent studies have documented subtle, yet potentially important effects of mercury on behavior, neurochemistry, and endocrine function in fish and wildlife at currently realistic levels of environmental exposure. Current levels of environmental methylmercury exposure are sufficient to cause significant biological impairment, both in individuals and in whole populations, in some ecosystems. Future toxicological studies on fish and wildlife will focus on linking biomarkers of methylmercury exposure and associated oxidative stress to effects on reproduction and population change; determining the genetic basis for mercury-related neurotoxic and other biological changes; determining the genetic basis for species differences in sensitivity to methylmercury; and linking toxic effects of methylmercury in individual animals to population-level changes.

The relationship between victimization and mental health functioning in homeless youth and adults.

PubMed

Rattelade, Stephanie; Farrell, Susan; Aubry, Tim; Klodawsky, Fran

2014-06-01

This study examined the relationship between victimization and mental health functioning in homeless individuals. Homeless populations experience higher levels of victimization than the general population, which in turn have a detrimental effect on their mental health. A sample of 304 homeless adults and youth completed one-on-one interviews, answering questions on mental health, past victimization, and recent victimization experiences. A hierarchical linear regression showed that experiences of childhood sexual abuse predicted lower mental health functioning after controlling for the sex and age of individuals. The study findings are applicable to current support programs for victims in the homeless population and are relevant to future research on homelessness and victimization.

An application of a zero-inflated lifetime distribution with multiple and incomplete data sources

DOE PAGES

Hamada, M. S.; Margevicius, K. J.

2016-02-11

In this study, we analyze data sampled from a population of parts in which an associated anomaly can occur at assembly or after assembly. Using a zero-inflated lifetime distribution to fit left-censored and right-censored data as well data from a supplementary sample, we make predictions about the proportion of the population with anomalies today and in the future. Goodness-of-fit is also addressed.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

2011-02-08

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. PMID:21304515

What is the strength of evidence for heart failure disease-management programs?

PubMed

Clark, Alexander M; Savard, Lori A; Thompson, David R

2009-07-28

Heart failure (HF) disease-management programs are increasingly common. However, some large and recent trials of programs have not reported positive findings. There have also been parallel recent advances in reporting standards and theory around complex nonpharmacological interventions. These developments compel reconsideration in this Viewpoint of how research into HF-management programs should be evaluated, the quality, specificity, and usefulness of this evidence, and the recommendations for future research. Addressing the main determinants of intervention effectiveness by using the PICO (Patient, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcome) approach and the recent CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement on nonpharmacological trials, we will argue that in both current trials and meta-analyses, interventions and comparisons are not sufficiently well described; that complex programs have been excessively oversimplified; and that potentially salient differences in programs, populations, and settings are not incorporated into analyses. In preference to more general meta-analyses of programs, adequate descriptions are first needed of populations, interventions, comparisons, and outcomes in past and future trials. This could be achieved via a systematic survey of study authors based on the CONSORT statement. These more detailed data on studies should be incorporated into future meta-analyses of comparable trials and used with other techniques such as patient-based outcomes data and meta-regression. Although trials and meta-analyses continue to have potential to generate useful evidence, a more specific evidence base is needed to support the development of effective programs for different populations and settings.

Filoviruses in Bats: Current Knowledge and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Olival, Kevin J.; Hayman, David T. S.

2014-01-01

Filoviruses, including Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus, pose significant threats to public health and species conservation by causing hemorrhagic fever outbreaks with high mortality rates. Since the first outbreak in 1967, their origins, natural history, and ecology remained elusive until recent studies linked them through molecular, serological, and virological studies to bats. We review the ecology, epidemiology, and natural history of these systems, drawing on examples from other bat-borne zoonoses, and highlight key areas for future research. We compare and contrast results from ecological and virological studies of bats and filoviruses with those of other systems. We also highlight how advanced methods, such as more recent serological assays, can be interlinked with flexible statistical methods and experimental studies to inform the field studies necessary to understand filovirus persistence in wildlife populations and cross-species transmission leading to outbreaks. We highlight the need for a more unified, global surveillance strategy for filoviruses in wildlife, and advocate for more integrated, multi-disciplinary approaches to understand dynamics in bat populations to ultimately mitigate or prevent potentially devastating disease outbreaks. PMID:24747773

Vascular Vegetation and Soil Microbiota of Juneau Icefield Nunataks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, D.; Hepner, S.; Kittilsby, E.; Bass, P.; White, C.

2016-12-01

Alpine environments are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and alpine plant populations of the Juneau Icefield are currently experiencing increased environmental stress. In this study, vascular plants on selected nunataks of the Juneau Icefield of the Coast Range Mountains are investigated. Sixty meter transects spanning an elevation range are collected along prominently vegetated portions of each study site. The population of vascular plants found is considered in relation to the nunatak soil microbiota, elevation, latitude, nunatak emergence and geology. Results indicate previously unknown variations in nunatak soil microbiota and provide baseline data that may be used for future studies.

Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Serra-Varela, María Jesús; Alía, Ricardo; Pórtoles, Javier; Gonzalo, Julián; Soliño, Mario; Grivet, Delphine; Raposo, Rosa

2017-01-01

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen's (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host's risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations.

Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change

PubMed Central

Serra-Varela, María Jesús; Alía, Ricardo; Pórtoles, Javier; Gonzalo, Julián; Soliño, Mario; Grivet, Delphine; Raposo, Rosa

2017-01-01

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen’s (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host’s risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations. PMID:28192454

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-01-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature–mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991–2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea. PMID:29690535

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-04-21

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature⁻mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991⁻2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea.

The Relationship of Baseline Prostate Specific Antigen and Risk of Future Prostate Cancer and Its Variance by Race.

PubMed

Verges, Daniel P; Dani, Hasan; Sterling, William A; Weedon, Jeremy; Atallah, William; Mehta, Komal; Schreiber, David; Weiss, Jeffrey P; Karanikolas, Nicholas T

2017-01-01

Several studies suggest that a baseline prostate specific antigen (PSA) measured in young men predicts future risk of prostate cancer. Considering recent recommendations against PSA screening, high-risk populations (e.g. black men, men with a high baseline PSA) may be particularly vulnerable in the coming years. Thus, we investigated the relationship between baseline PSA and future prostate cancer in a black majority-minority urban population. A retrospective analysis was performed of the prostate biopsy database (n = 994) at the Brooklyn Veterans Affairs Hospital. These men were referred to urology clinic for elevated PSA and biopsied between 2007 and 2014. Multivariate logistic regression was used to predict positive prostate biopsy from log-transformed baseline PSA, race (black, white, or other), and several other variables. The majority of men identified as black (50.2%). Median age at time of baseline PSA and biopsy was 58.6 and 64.8, respectively. Median baseline PSA was similar among black men and white men (2.70 vs 2.91 for black men vs white men, p = 0.232). Even so, black men were more likely than white men to be diagnosed with prostate cancer (OR 1.62, p < 0.0001). Black men less than age 70 were at particularly greater risk than their white counterparts. Baseline PSA was not a statistically significant predictor of future prostate cancer (p = 0.101). Black men were more likely to be diagnosed with prostate cancer than were white men, despite comparable baseline PSA. In our pre-screened population at the urology clinic, a retrospective examination of baseline PSA did not predict future prostate cancer. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Looking Beyond Income and Education: Socioeconomic Status Gradients Among Future High-Cost Users of Health Care.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Tiffany; Rosella, Laura C; Calzavara, Andrew; Petch, Jeremy; Pinto, Andrew D; Manson, Heather; Goel, Vivek; Wodchis, Walter P

2015-08-01

Healthcare spending occurs disproportionately among a very small portion of the population. Research on these high-cost users (HCUs) of health care has been overwhelmingly cross-sectional in nature and limited to the few sociodemographic and clinical characteristics available in health administrative databases. This study is the first to bridge this knowledge gap by applying a population health lens to HCUs. We investigate associations between a broad range of SES characteristics and future HCUs. A cohort of adults from two cycles of large, nationally representative health surveys conducted in 2003 and 2005 was linked to population-based health administrative databases from a universal healthcare plan for Ontario, Canada. Comprehensive person-centered estimates of annual healthcare spending were calculated for the subsequent 5 years following interview. Baseline HCUs (top 5%) were excluded and healthcare spending for non-HCUs was analyzed. Adjusted for predisposition and need factors, the odds of future HCU status (over 5 years) were estimated according to various individual, household, and neighborhood SES factors. Analyses were conducted in 2014. Low income (personal and household); less than post-secondary education; and living in high-dependency neighborhoods greatly increased the odds of future HCUs. After adjustment, future HCU status was most strongly associated with food insecurity, personal income, and non-homeownership. Living in highly deprived or low ethnic concentration neighborhoods also increased the odds of becoming an HCU. Findings suggest that addressing social determinants of health, such as food and housing security, may be important components of interventions aiming to improve health outcomes and reduce costs. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Paleoclimate and bubonic plague: a forewarning of future risk?

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2010-08-27

Pandemics of bubonic plague have occurred in Eurasia since the sixth century AD. Climatic variations in Central Asia affect the population size and activity of the plague bacterium's reservoir rodent species, influencing the probability of human infection. Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics. This has potential implications for health risks from future climate change.

Cancer Risks Associated with External Radiation From Diagnostic Imaging Procedures

PubMed Central

Linet, Martha S.; Slovis, Thomas L.; Miller, Donald L.; Kleinerman, Ruth; Lee, Choonsik; Rajaraman, Preetha; de Gonzalez, Amy Berrington

2012-01-01

The 600% increase in medical radiation exposure to the US population since 1980 has provided immense benefit, but potential future cancer risks to patients. Most of the increase is from diagnostic radiologic procedures. The objectives of this review are to summarize epidemiologic data on cancer risks associated with diagnostic procedures, describe how exposures from recent diagnostic procedures relate to radiation levels linked with cancer occurrence, and propose a framework of strategies to reduce radiation from diagnostic imaging in patients. We briefly review radiation dose definitions, mechanisms of radiation carcinogenesis, key epidemiologic studies of medical and other radiation sources and cancer risks, and dose trends from diagnostic procedures. We describe cancer risks from experimental studies, future projected risks from current imaging procedures, and the potential for higher risks in genetically susceptible populations. To reduce future projected cancers from diagnostic procedures, we advocate widespread use of evidence-based appropriateness criteria for decisions about imaging procedures, oversight of equipment to deliver reliably the minimum radiation required to attain clinical objectives, development of electronic lifetime records of imaging procedures for patients and their physicians, and commitment by medical training programs, professional societies, and radiation protection organizations to educate all stakeholders in reducing radiation from diagnostic procedures. PMID:22307864

The macular degeneration and aging study: Design and research protocol of a randomized trial for a psychosocial intervention with macular degeneration patients.

PubMed

Sörensen, Silvia; White, Katherine; Mak, Wingyun; Zanibbi, Katherine; Tang, Wan; O'Hearn, Amanda; Hegel, Mark T

2015-05-01

Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of irreversible and predictable blindness among older adults with serious physical and mental health consequences. Visual impairment is associated with negative future outlook and depression and has serious consequences for older adults' quality of life and, by way of depression, on long-term survival. Psychosocial interventions have the potential to alleviate and prevent depression symptoms among older AMD patients. We describe the protocol of the Macular Degeneration and Aging Study, a randomized clinical trial of a psychosocial Preventive Problem-Solving Intervention. The intervention is aimed at enhancing well-being and future planning among older adults with macular degeneration by increasing preparation for future care. Adequate randomization and therapeutic fidelity were achieved. Current retention rates were acceptable, given the vulnerability of the population. Acceptability (adherence and satisfaction) was high. Given the high public health significance and impact on quality of life among older adults with vision loss, this protocol contributes a valid test of a promising intervention for maintaining mental and physical health in this population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants.

PubMed

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B; Tielbörger, Katja

2012-11-19

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these-usually correlative-approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

PubMed Central

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B.; Tielbörger, Katja

2012-01-01

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought. PMID:23045708

Population and clinical genetics of human transposable elements in the (post) genomic era

PubMed Central

Rishishwar, Lavanya; Wang, Lu; Clayton, Evan A.; Mariño-Ramírez, Leonardo; McDonald, John F.; Jordan, I. King

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Recent technological developments—in genomics, bioinformatics and high-throughput experimental techniques—are providing opportunities to study ongoing human transposable element (TE) activity at an unprecedented level of detail. It is now possible to characterize genome-wide collections of TE insertion sites for multiple human individuals, within and between populations, and for a variety of tissue types. Comparison of TE insertion site profiles between individuals captures the germline activity of TEs and reveals insertion site variants that segregate as polymorphisms among human populations, whereas comparison among tissue types ascertains somatic TE activity that generates cellular heterogeneity. In this review, we provide an overview of these new technologies and explore their implications for population and clinical genetic studies of human TEs. We cover both recent published results on human TE insertion activity as well as the prospects for future TE studies related to human evolution and health. PMID:28228978

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

Skin cancer beliefs, knowledge, and prevention practices: a comparison of farmers and nonfarmers in a midwestern population.

PubMed

Carley, Alexandra; Stratman, Erik

2015-01-01

Farmers have substantial sun exposure and increased skin cancer risk but poor sun protection practices. There are few studies regarding the underlying factors that contribute to inadequate skin cancer prevention practices in the farming population, and minimal data to guide skin cancer awareness and educational interventions for this population. The purpose of this study was to assess skin cancer knowledge, sun protection behaviors and barriers, health care information sources, and the impact of skin cancer screening among midwestern farmers and nonfarmers. Individuals attending a free skin cancer screening during 2011 Wisconsin Farm Technology Days were surveyed for self-reported sun protection use, extent of sun exposure, and skin cancer and sun protection beliefs and knowledge. A total of 476 individuals participated in the study, including 194 farmers. Although farmers identified sun protection benefits, few reported optimal practices, with only 23% of farmers reporting sunscreen use always or frequently when out in the sun for 15 minutes or more. Common barriers to sun protection included discomfort with wearing long pants and long shirts, forgetfulness with sunscreen use, and inconvenience with wearing wide-brimmed hats. Higher knowledge scores in farmers were associated with better sun protection. Farmers utilized different sources of health care information compared with nonfarmers, including farm magazines and newspapers, radio, and farm organizations. Providers should consider the unique characteristics of the farming population to provide skin cancer prevention education that is tailored to the needs of this population, such as reminders for sunscreen use and resources for sun-protective hats that do not interfere with work. Among individuals without prior history of skin cancer, 34% of farmers and 22% of nonfarmers (P = .0127) were referred for additional evaluation due to identification of a concerning lesion at the screening event. Thus, farmers may preferentially benefit from skin cancer screening events, and this population should be targeted for additional screening events in the future. This study identifies unique characteristics of the farming population that can assist providers in caring for this population and guide the future development of skin cancer awareness, prevention, and screening initiatives to benefit farmers.

Research on the food security condition and food supply capacity of Egypt.

PubMed

Deng, Jian; Xiang, Youzhen; Hao, Wenhui; Feng, Yongzhong; Yang, Gaihe; Ren, Guangxin; Han, Xinhui

2014-01-01

Food security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield per unit, grain-cultivated area, and per capita grain possession of Egypt. The GM (1,1) model of the grey system was used to predict the future population. Thereafter, the result was combined with scenario analysis to forecast the grain possession and population carrying capacity of Egypt under different scenarios. Results show that the increasing population and limitations in cultivated land will strain Egyptian food security. Only in high cultivated areas and high grain yield scenarios before 2020, or in high cultivated areas and mid grain yield scenarios before 2015, can food supply be basically satisfied (assurance rate ≥ 80%) under a standard of 400 kg per capita. Population carrying capacity in 2030 is between 51.45 and 89.35 million. Thus, we propose the use of advanced technologies in agriculture and the adjustment of plant structure and cropping systems to improve land utilization efficiency. Furthermore, urbanization and other uses of cultivated land should be strictly controlled to ensure the planting of grains.

The TSH levels and risk of hypothyroidism: Results from a population based prospective cohort study in an Iranian adult's population.

PubMed

Aminorroaya, Ashraf; Meamar, Rokhsareh; Amini, Massoud; Feizi, Awat; Nasri, Maryam; Tabatabaei, Azamosadat; Faghihimani, Elham

2017-06-01

The aim of current study was to assess the relationship between serum TSH levels and hypothyroidism risk in the euthyroid population. In a population-based cohort study, a total of 615 individuals with a normal baseline TSH, from of total population (n=2254) in 2006, were followed up for 6years. TSH, total T4, thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), and thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) were measured. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated based on logistic regression. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis along with area under the curve (AUC) was used to prediction of future hypothyroidism. TSH level in 2006 was a significant predictor for overt hypothyroidism, in the total population (RR=3.5) and female (RR=1.37) (all, P value<0.05). A cutoff value of TSH at 2.05mIU/L [AUC: (CI95 %), 0.68 (0.44-0.92; P=0.05)] was obtained for differentiating the patients with overt hypothyroidism from euthyroid. However, this cut off was not observed when we included only negative TPO and TgAbs people in 2006. The RR of hypothyroidism increased gradually when TSH level increased from 2.06-3.6mIU/L to >3.6mIU/L in the total population and both sexes. In women, the risk of overt hypothyroidism was significantly higher in subjects with TSH above 3.6 than those subject with THS levels≤2.05 [RR: (CI95 %), 20.57(2.-207.04), P value<0.05]. A cutoff value of TSH at 2.05mIU/L could predict the development of overt hypothyroidism in future. However, it was not applicable for people with negative TPOAb and negative TgAb. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent progress in the theoretical modelling of Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marconi, Marcella

2017-09-01

Cepheids and RR Lyrae are among the most important primary distance indicators to calibrate the extragalactic distance ladder and excellent stellar population tracers, for Population I and Population II, respectively. In this paper I first mention some recent theoretical studies of Cepheids and RR Lyrae obtained with different theoretical tools. Then I focus the attention on new results based on nonlinear convective pulsation models in the context of some international projects, including VMC@VISTA and the Gaia collaboration. The open problems for both Cepheids and RR Lyrae are briefly discussed together with some challenging future application.

Genetic studies of the Roma (Gypsies): a review

PubMed Central

Kalaydjieva, Luba; Gresham, David; Calafell, Francesc

2001-01-01

Background Data provided by the social sciences as well as genetic research suggest that the 8-10 million Roma (Gypsies) who live in Europe today are best described as a conglomerate of genetically isolated founder populations. The relationship between the traditional social structure observed by the Roma, where the Group is the primary unit, and the boundaries, demographic history and biological relatedness of the diverse founder populations appears complex and has not been addressed by population genetic studies. Results Recent medical genetic research has identified a number of novel, or previously known but rare conditions, caused by private founder mutations. A summary of the findings, provided in this review, should assist diagnosis and counselling in affected families, and promote future collaborative research. The available incomplete epidemiological data suggest a non-random distribution of disease-causing mutations among Romani groups. Conclusion Although far from systematic, the published information indicates that medical genetics has an important role to play in improving the health of this underprivileged and forgotten people of Europe. Reported carrier rates for some Mendelian disorders are in the range of 5 -15%, sufficient to justify newborn screening and early treatment, or community-based education and carrier testing programs for disorders where no therapy is currently available. To be most productive, future studies of the epidemiology of single gene disorders should take social organisation and cultural anthropology into consideration, thus allowing the targeting of public health programs and contributing to the understanding of population structure and demographic history of the Roma. PMID:11299048

Temporal and spatial variation in personal ambient temperatures for outdoor working populations in the southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugg, Margaret M.; Fuhrmann, Christopher M.; Runkle, Jennifer D.

2018-05-01

Excessive ambient temperature exposure can result in significant morbidity and mortality, especially among vulnerable occupational groups like outdoor workers. Average temperatures in the USA are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, placing future worker populations at greater risk for unhealthy levels of exposure. Unlike previous research focused on aggregate-level temperature exposures from in situ weather station data, this study will measure location-based personal ambient temperatures (PAT) at the individual-level by piloting the use of wearable sensor technology. A total of 66 outdoor workers in three geographically and climatologically diverse regions in the Southeast USA were continuously sampled during the workday for a 1-week period throughout July 11 to August 8 2016. Results indicate significant worker variation in temperature exposure within and between study locations; with PAT characterized by less pronounced variability as workers moved between indoor and outdoor environments. Developed land covers, a factor often associated with higher temperatures, were poorly correlated with PAT. Future analysis should focus on a worker's physiological response to PAT and mapping of spatial patterns of PAT for a larger worker population to produce innovative and targeted heat prevention programs.

The use of a robust capture-recapture design in small mammal population studies: A field example with Microtus pennsylvanicus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hines, James E.

1984-01-01

The robust design of Pollock (1982) was used to estimate parameters of a Maryland M. pennsylvanicus population. Closed model tests provided strong evidence of heterogeneity of capture probability, and model M eta (Otis et al., 1978) was selected as the most appropriate model for estimating population size. The Jolly-Seber model goodness-of-fit test indicated rejection of the model for this data set, and the M eta estimates of population size were all higher than the Jolly-Seber estimates. Both of these results are consistent with the evidence of heterogeneous capture probabilities. The authors thus used M eta estimates of population size, Jolly-Seber estimates of survival rate, and estimates of birth-immigration based on a combination of the population size and survival rate estimates. Advantages of the robust design estimates for certain inference procedures are discussed, and the design is recommended for future small mammal capture-recapture studies directed at estimation.

A Method for Mapping Future Urbanization in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Nigro, Joseph; Thome, Kurtis; Zhang, Ping; Fathi, Najlaa; Lachir, Asia

2018-01-01

Cities are poised to absorb additional people. Their sustainability, or ability to accommodate a population increase without depleting resources or compromising future growth, depends on whether they harness the efficiency gains from urban land management. Population is often projected as a bulk national number without details about spatial distribution. We use Landsat and population data in a methodology to project and map U.S. urbanization for the year 2020 and document its spatial pattern. This methodology is important to spatially disaggregate projected population and assist land managers to monitor land use, assess infrastructure and distribute resources. We found the U.S. west coast urban areas to have the fastest population growth with relatively small land consumption resulting in future decrease in per capita land use. Except for Miami (FL), most other U.S. large urban areas, especially in the Midwest, are growing spatially faster than their population and inadvertently consuming land needed for ecosystem services. In large cities, such as New York, Chicago, Houston and Miami, land development is expected more in suburban zones than urban cores. In contrast, in Los Angeles land development within the city core is greater than in its suburbs.

Baseline study of morphometric traits of wild Capsicum annuum growing near two biosphere reserves in the Peninsula of Baja California for future conservation management.

PubMed

Murillo-Amador, Bernardo; Rueda-Puente, Edgar Omar; Troyo-Diéguez, Enrique; Córdoba-Matson, Miguel Víctor; Hernández-Montiel, Luis Guillermo; Nieto-Garibay, Alejandra

2015-05-10

Despite the ecological and socioeconomic importance of wild Capsicum annuum L., few investigations have been carried out to study basic characteristics. The peninsula of Baja California has a unique characteristic that it provides a high degree of isolation for the development of unique highly diverse endemic populations. The objective of this study was to evaluate for the first time the growth type, associated vegetation, morphometric traits in plants, in fruits and mineral content of roots, stems and leaves of three wild populations of Capsicum in Baja California, Mexico, near biosphere reserves. The results showed that the majority of plants of wild Capsicum annuum have a shrub growth type and were associated with communities consisting of 43 species of 20 families the most representative being Fabaceae, Cactaceae and Euphorbiaceae. Significant differences between populations were found in plant height, main stem diameter, beginning of canopy, leaf area, leaf average and maximum width, stems and roots dry weights. Coverage, leaf length and dry weight did not show differences. Potassium, sodium and zinc showed significant differences between populations in their roots, stems and leaves, while magnesium and manganese showed significant differences only in roots and stems, iron in stems and leaves, calcium in roots and leaves and phosphorus did not show differences. Average fruit weight, length, 100 fruits dry weight, 100 fruits pulp dry weight and pulp/seeds ratio showed significant differences between populations, while fruit number, average fruit fresh weight, peduncle length, fruit width, seeds per fruit and seed dry weight, did not show differences. We concluded that this study of traits of wild Capsicum, provides useful information of morphometric variation between wild populations that will be of value for future decision processes involved in the management and preservation of germplasm and genetic resources.

User Experience Evaluation of a Smoking Cessation App in People With Serious Mental Illness.

PubMed

Vilardaga, Roger; Rizo, Javier; Kientz, Julie A; McDonell, Michael G; Ries, Richard K; Sobel, Kiley

2016-05-01

Smoking rates among people with serious mental illness are 3 to 4 times higher than the general population, yet currently there are no smoking cessation apps specifically designed to address this need. We report the results of a User Experience (UX) evaluation of a National Cancer Institute smoking cessation app, QuitPal, and provide user centered design data that can be used to tailor smoking cessation apps for this population. Two hundred forty hours of field experience with QuitPal, 10 hours of recorded interviews and task performances, usage logs and a self-reported usability scale, informed the results of our study. Participants were five individuals recruited from a community mental health clinic with a reported serious mental illness history. Performance, self-reports, usage logs and interview data were triangulated to identify critical usability errors and UX themes emerging from this population. Data suggests QuitPal has below average levels of usability, elevated time on task performances and required considerable amounts of guidance. UX themes provided critical information to tailor smoking cessation apps for this population, such as the importance of breaking down "cessation" into smaller steps and use of a reward system. This is the first study to examine the UX of a smoking cessation app among people with serious mental illness. Data from this study will inform future research efforts to expand the effectiveness and reach of smoking cessation apps for this highly nicotine dependent yet under-served population. Data from this study will inform future research efforts to expand the effectiveness and reach of smoking cessation apps for people with serious mental illness, a highly nicotine dependent yet under-served population. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dispersal and population state of an endangered island lizard following a conservation translocation.

PubMed

Angeli, Nicole F; Lundgren, Ian F; Pollock, Clayton G; Hillis-Starr, Zandy M; Fitzgerald, Lee A

2018-03-01

Population size is widely used as a unit of ecological analysis, yet to estimate population size requires accounting for observed and latent heterogeneity influencing dispersion of individuals across landscapes. In newly established populations, such as when animals are translocated for conservation, dispersal and availability of resources influence patterns of abundance. We developed a process to estimate population size using N-mixture models and spatial models for newly established and dispersing populations. We used our approach to estimate the population size of critically endangered St. Croix ground lizards (Ameiva polops) five years after translocation of 57 individuals to Buck Island, an offshore island of St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands. Estimates of population size incorporated abiotic variables, dispersal limits, and operative environmental temperature available to the lizards to account for low species detection. Operative environmental temperature and distance from the translocation site were always important in fitting the N-mixture model indicating effects of dispersal and species biology on estimates of population size. We found that the population is increasing its range across the island by 5-10% every six months. We spatially interpolated site-specific abundance from the N-mixture model to the entire island, and we estimated 1,473 (95% CI, 940-1,802) St. Croix ground lizards on Buck Island in 2013 corresponding to survey results. This represents a 26-fold increase since the translocation. We predicted the future dispersal of the lizards to all habitats on Buck Island, with the potential for the population to increase by another five times in the future. Incorporating biologically relevant covariates as explicit parameters in population models can improve predictions of population size and the future spread of species introduced to new localities. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Is a HIV vaccine a viable option and at what price? An economic evaluation of adding HIV vaccination into existing prevention programs in Thailand.

PubMed

Leelahavarong, Pattara; Teerawattananon, Yot; Werayingyong, Pitsaphun; Akaleephan, Chutima; Premsri, Nakorn; Namwat, Chawetsan; Peerapatanapokin, Wiwat; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2011-07-05

This study aims to determine the maximum price at which HIV vaccination is cost-effective in the Thai healthcare setting. It also aims to identify the relative importance of vaccine characteristics and risk behavior changes among vaccine recipients to determine how they affect this cost-effectiveness. A semi-Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and health outcomes of HIV prevention programs combined with HIV vaccination in comparison to the existing HIV prevention programs without vaccination. The estimation was based on a lifetime horizon period (99 years) and used the government perspective. The analysis focused on both the general population and specific high-risk population groups. The maximum price of cost-effective vaccination was defined by using threshold analysis; one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The study employed an expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis to determine the relative importance of parameters and to prioritize future studies. The most expensive HIV vaccination which is cost-effective when given to the general population was 12,000 Thai baht (US$1 = 34 Thai baht in 2009). This vaccination came with 70% vaccine efficacy and lifetime protection as long as risk behavior was unchanged post-vaccination. The vaccine would be considered cost-ineffective at any price if it demonstrated low efficacy (30%) and if post-vaccination risk behavior increased by 10% or more, especially among the high-risk population groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were the most sensitive to change in post-vaccination risk behavior, followed by vaccine efficacy and duration of protection. The EVPI indicated the need to quantify vaccine efficacy, changed post-vaccination risk behavior, and the costs of vaccination programs. The approach used in this study differentiated it from other economic evaluations and can be applied for the economic evaluation of other health interventions not available in healthcare systems. This study is important not only for researchers conducting future HIV vaccine research but also for policy decision makers who, in the future, will consider vaccine adoption.

Cancer morbidity among methyl isocyanate exposed long- term survivors and their offspring: a hospital-based five year descriptive study (2006 - 2011) and future directions to predict cancer risk in the affected population.

PubMed

Senthilkumar, Chinnu Sugavanam; Malla, Tahir Mohi-ud-Din; Sah, Nand Kishore; Ganesh, Narayanan

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to update both researchers and clinicians about the cancer incidence in methyl isocyanate (MIC) exposed long-term survivors and in their offspring, focusing on the etiological plausibility. In the time period 2006-2011, cancer morbidity was evaluated in the population surviving after exposure to (MIC) on December 3rd, 1984, in Bhopal. This descriptive study is based on hospital registration of 1261 cancer patients those are MIC gas victims and their subsequently born offspring. Morbidity status was studied on the basis of gender, age, organ and site with relative percentages. Cancers on specific sites, with special reference to breast (n=231) (18.31%), lung (n=103) (8.16%), tongue (n=103) (8.16%), buccal mucosa (n=94) (7.45%), cervix (n=72) (5.70%), and esophagus (n=68) (5.39%) were found in high proportions. Ovary (n=43) (3.40%), brain (n=42) (3.33%), larynx (n=40) (3.17%), non-Hodgkin's (n=31) (2.45%), gallbladder (n=29) (2.29%), stomach (n=28) (2.22%), head and neck (n=28) (2.22%), liver (n=27) (2.14%), acute lymphoid leukemia (n=24) (1.90%), rectum (n=20) (1.58%), colon (n=20) (1.58%), chronic myeloid leukemia (n=17) (1.34%), alveolus (n=17) (1.34%), Hodgkin's (n=14) (1.11%), uterus (n=14) (1.11%), multiple myeloma (n=14) (1.11%), and prostate (n=11) (0.87%) lesions were observed less frequently. Remarkably, gradual increase of cancers on different organs and sites were observed in the long- term survivors and their offspring. The present study observed some cancers which were not previously reported in this population. In addition, we also present the future research directions with systematic approaches to predict cancer risk in long-term survivors and their future generations. On the basis of this morbidity report, we suggest the need of biological surveillance through immune system biomonitoring and cytogenetic screening to predict the cancer risk in the MIC exposed population and their offspring.

bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

PubMed Central

Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

2016-01-01

We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

PubMed Central

Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems. PMID:27362499

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

PubMed

Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems.

The impact of hearing impairment and noise-induced hearing injury on quality of life in the active-duty military population: challenges to the study of this issue.

PubMed

Alamgir, Hasanat; Turner, Caryn A; Wong, Nicole J; Cooper, Sharon P; Betancourt, Jose A; Henry, James; Senchak, Andrew J; Hammill, Tanisha L; Packer, Mark D

2016-01-01

The objectives of this research were to 1) summarize the available evidence on the impact of hearing loss on quality of life (QOL) among U.S. active-duty service members, 2) describe the QOL instruments that have been used to quantify the impact of hearing loss on quality of life, 3) examine national population-level secondary databases and report on their utility for studying the impact of hearing loss on QOL among active-duty service members, and 4) provide recommendations for future studies that seek to quantify the impact of hearing loss in this population. There is a lack of literature that addresses the intersection of hearing impairment, the military population, and quality of life measures. For audiological research, U.S. military personnel offer a unique research population, as they are exposed to noise levels and blast environments that are highly unusual in civilian work settings and can serve as a model population for studying the impact on QOL associated with these conditions. Our team recommends conducting a study on the active-duty service member population using a measurement instrument suitable for determining decreases in QOL specifically due to hearing loss.

Faculty Members' Understanding of Teaching Efficacy Criteria and It Relation to Their Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mehdinezhad, Vali

2012-01-01

This study, examining university teaching, is aimed to understand more about university faculty members' sense of teaching efficacy criteria, with the hope to provide insights for future strategies in faculty development training program universities and colleges. In this study, a descriptive and correlational survey is used. The population of…

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 – Consequences for Blood Donation

PubMed Central

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-01-01

Summary This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of ‘non-donors’) in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060. PMID:20737016

WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

2017-06-01

Stochasticity can play an important role in the dynamics of biologically relevant populations. These span a broad range of scales: from intra-cellular populations of molecules to population of cells and then to groups of plants, animals and people. Large deviations in stochastic population dynamics—such as those determining population extinction, fixation or switching between different states—are presently in a focus of attention of statistical physicists. We review recent progress in applying different variants of dissipative WKB approximation (after Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) to this class of problems. The WKB approximation allows one to evaluate the mean time and/or probability of population extinction, fixation and switches resulting from either intrinsic (demographic) noise, or a combination of the demographic noise and environmental variations, deterministic or random. We mostly cover well-mixed populations, single and multiple, but also briefly consider populations on heterogeneous networks and spatial populations. The spatial setting also allows one to study large fluctuations of the speed of biological invasions. Finally, we briefly discuss possible directions of future work.

Methodological Challenges in Physical Activity Research with Older Adults

PubMed Central

Chase, Jo-Ana D.

2015-01-01

The aging adult population is growing, as well as the incidence of chronic illness among older adults. Physical activity has been demonstrated in the literature to be a beneficial component of self-management for chronic illnesses commonly found in the older adult population. Health sciences research seeks to develop new knowledge, practices, and policies that may benefit older adults’ management of chronic illness and quality of life. However, research with the older adult population, though beneficial, includes potential methodological challenges specific to this age group. This article discusses common methodological issues in research among older adults, with a focus on physical activity intervention studies. Awareness and understanding of these issues may facilitate future development of research studies devoted to the aging adult population, through appropriate modification and tailoring of sampling techniques, intervention development, and data measures and collection. PMID:21821726

Nuclear and mitochondrial genetic structure in the Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) – implications for future reintroductions

PubMed Central

Senn, Helen; Ogden, Rob; Frosch, Christiane; Syrůčková, Alena; Campbell-Palmer, Roisin; Munclinger, Pavel; Durka, Walter; Kraus, Robert H S; Saveljev, Alexander P; Nowak, Carsten; Stubbe, Annegret; Stubbe, Michael; Michaux, Johan; Lavrov, Vladimir; Samiya, Ravchig; Ulevicius, Alius; Rosell, Frank

2014-01-01

Many reintroduction projects for conservation fail, and there are a large number of factors that may contribute to failure. Genetic analysis can be used to help stack the odds of a reintroduction in favour of success, by conducting assessment of source populations to evaluate the possibility of inbreeding and outbreeding depression and by conducting postrelease monitoring. In this study, we use a panel of 306 SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) markers and 487–489 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA control region sequence data to examine 321 individuals from possible source populations of the Eurasian beaver for a reintroduction to Scotland. We use this information to reassess the phylogenetic history of the Eurasian beavers, to examine the genetic legacy of past reintroductions on the Eurasian landmass and to assess the future power of the genetic markers to conduct ongoing monitoring via parentage analysis and individual identification. We demonstrate the capacity of medium density genetic data (hundreds of SNPs) to provide information suitable for applied conservation and discuss the difficulty of balancing the need for high genetic diversity against phylogenetic best fit when choosing source population(s) for reintroduction. PMID:25067948

The nursing workforce in Kuwait to the year 2020.

PubMed

Al-Jarallah, K F; Moussa, M A A; Hakeem, S K; Al-Khanfar, F K

2009-03-01

The study addresses the supply and demand for nurses in Kuwait in the light of emerging variables such as increasing population, economic growth, changes in healthcare strategies and expansion of healthcare facilities. To project the future demand for nurses in Kuwait for the years 2007-2020 based on the period 1994-2006. Population projections were derived using the average annual natural increase rate of the 1994-2006 populations. The future demand for nurses was projected using the average nurse to population ratios for the years 1994-2006. The number of Kuwaiti indigenous nurses is declining at an average decrement rate of 3.3% per annum. There is a gap between the numbers of native and migrant nurses, which will be wider with time. In 2006, native nurses constituted only 6.6% of the nursing workforce; this affects the quality of provided health care owing to language, religions and socio-cultural barriers between foreign nurses and patients. The supply of indigenous nurses in Kuwait should be increased in order to deliver effective nursing care with shared culture and language in the modern healthcare system of Kuwait. This can be achieved through an improvement in recruitment and retention of indigenous nurses and nursing students.

Current and Future Effects of Climate Change on Montane Amphibians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corn, S.

2002-05-01

Breeding phenology of amphibians in inextricably linked to weather, and change in the timing of breeding resulting from climate change may have consequences for the fitness of individuals and may affect persistence of amphibian populations. Amphibians in some north temperate locations have been observed to breed earlier in recent years in response to warmer spring temperatures, but this is not a universal phenomenon. In mountain populations, phenology is influenced by snow deposition as much as temperature. A trend towards earlier breeding, associated with increasing El Niño frequency, may be occurring in the Cascade Mountains in Oregon, but only at lower elevations. There is no evidence for changes in the dates of breeding activity by amphibians in the Rocky Mountains. Too few amphibian species have been studied, and those for which data exist have been studied for too brief a span of years to allow general conclusions about the effects of climate change. However, regardless of whether climate change has contributed to current amphibian declines, changes in temperature and the extent and duration of snow cover predicted for the next century will have increasingly severe consequences for the persistence of some species. Additional observations from amphibian populations, and spatial and temporal modeling of climate variables are needed to generate predictions of past and future breeding phenology, and the effects on amphibian population dynamics.

Quantitative comparison of cognitive behavioral therapy and music therapy research: a methodological best-practices analysis to guide future investigation for adult psychiatric patients.

PubMed

Silverman, Michael J

2008-01-01

While the music therapy profession is relatively young and small in size, it can treat a variety of clinical populations and has established a diverse research base. However, although the profession originated working with persons diagnosed with mental illnesses, there is a considerable lack of quantitative research concerning the effects of music therapy with this population. Music therapy clinicians and researchers have reported on this lack of evidence and the difficulty in conducting psychosocial research on their interventions (Choi, 1997; Silverman, 2003a). While published studies have provided suggestions for future research, no studies have provided detailed propositions for the methodology and design of meticulous high quality randomized controlled psychiatric music therapy research. How do other psychotherapies accomplish their databases and could the music therapy field borrow from their rigorous "methodological best practices" to strengthen its own literature base? Therefore, as the National Institutes of Mental Health state the treatment of choice for evidence-based psychotherapy is cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), aspects of this psychotherapy's literature base were analyzed. The purpose of this literature analysis was to (a) analyze and identify components of high-quality quantitative CBT research for adult psychiatric consumers, (b) analyze and identify the variables and other elements of existing quantitative psychiatric music therapy research for adult consumers, and (c) compare the two data sets to identify the best methodological designs and variables for future quantitative music therapy research with the mental health population. A table analyzing randomized and thoroughly controlled studies involving the use of CBT for persons with severe mental illnesses is included to determine chief components of high-quality experimental research designs and implementation of quantitative clinical research. The table also shows the same analyzed components for existing quantitative psychiatric music therapy research with adult consumers, thus highlighting potential areas and elements for future investigations. A second table depicts a number of potential dependent measures and their sources to be evaluated in future music therapy studies. A third table providing suggestions for future research is derived from a synthesis of the tables and is included to guide researchers and encourage the advancement and expansion of the current literature base. The body of the paper is a discussion of the results of the literature analysis derived from the tables, meta-analyses, and reviews of literature. It is hoped that this report will lead to the addition of future high-quality quantitative research to the psychiatric music therapy literature base and thus provide evidence-based services to as many persons with mental illnesses as possible.

Prevalence, clinical features and risk assessment of pre-diabetes in Spain: the prospective Mollerussa cohort study

PubMed Central

Vilanova, María Belén; Falguera, Mireia; Marsal, Josep Ramon; Rubinat, Esther; Alcubierre, Núria; Catelblanco, Esmeralda; Granado-Casas, Minerva; Miró, Neus; Molló, Àngels; Mata-Cases, Manel; Franch-Nadal, Josep; Mauricio, Didac

2017-01-01

Purpose The Mollerussa prospective cohort was created to study pre-diabetes in a population-based sample from the primary care setting in the semirural area of Pla d’Urgell in Catalonia (Spain). The aims of the study were to assess the prevalence of pre-diabetes in our population, the likelihood to develop overt diabetes over time and to identify risk factors associated with the progression of the condition. Participants The cohort includes 594 subjects randomly selected between March 2011 and July 2014 from our primary care population, who were older than 25 years, consented to participate and did not have a recorded diagnosis of diabetes. Findings to date At baseline, we performed a clinical interview to collect demographic, clinical and lifestyle (including a nutritional survey) characteristics; carotid ultrasound imaging to assess subclinical cardiovascular disease was also performed, and a blood sample was collected, with an overall <5% rate of missing data. An additional blood draw was performed 12 months after initial recruitment to reassess laboratory results in patients initially identified as having pre-diabetes, with an 89.6% retention rate. Several studies investigating various hypotheses are currently ongoing. Future plans All subjects recruited during the cohort creation will be followed long-term through annual extraction of data from health records stored in the electronic Clinical station in Primary Care database. The Mollerussa cohort will thus be a sound population-based sample for multiple future research projects to generate insights into the epidemiology and natural history of pre-diabetes in Spain. PMID:28606902

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T.; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M.; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Plummer, David; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S.; Strode, Sarah; Szopa, Sophie; Zengast, Guang

2016-08-01

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year-1), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000) deaths year-1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year-1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between -2.39 and -1.31 million deaths year-1 for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths year-1 in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths year-1 in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble.

PubMed

Silva, Raquel A; West, J Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T; Collins, William J; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, I A; Plummer, David; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S; Strode, Sarah; Szopa, Sophie; Zeng, Guang

2016-01-01

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM 2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths/year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382,000 (121,000 to 728,000) deaths/year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths/year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM 2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between -2.39 and -1.31 million deaths/year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM 2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths/year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths/year in 2100 for the four RCPs, due to the combined effect of decreases in PM 2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Evaluation of Multiplexed 16S rRNA Microbial Population Surveys Using Illumina MiSeq Platform (Seventh Annual Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future (SFAF) Meeting 2012)

ScienceCinema

Tremblay, Julien

2018-01-22

Julien Tremblay from DOE JGI presents "Evaluation of Multiplexed 16S rRNA Microbial Population Surveys Using Illumina MiSeq Platorm" at the 7th Annual Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future (SFAF) Meeting held in June, 2012 in Santa Fe, NM.

Simulating the effects of climate change on population connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Treesearch

T. N. Wasserman; S. A. Cushman; A. S. Shirk; E. L. Landguth; J. S. Littell

2012-01-01

We utilize empirically derived estimates of landscape resistance to assess current landscape connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, and project how a warming climate may affect landscape resistance and population connectivity in the future. We evaluate the influences of five potential future temperature scenarios...

Evaluation of Multiplexed 16S rRNA Microbial Population Surveys Using Illumina MiSeq Platform (Seventh Annual Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future (SFAF) Meeting 2012)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tremblay, Julien

2012-06-01

Julien Tremblay from DOE JGI presents "Evaluation of Multiplexed 16S rRNA Microbial Population Surveys Using Illumina MiSeq Platorm" at the 7th Annual Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future (SFAF) Meeting held in June, 2012 in Santa Fe, NM.

Life-history theory and climate change: resolving population and parental investment paradoxes.

PubMed

Caudell, Mark; Quinlan, Robert

2016-11-01

Population growth in the next half-century is on pace to raise global carbon emissions by half. Carbon emissions are associated with fertility as a by-product of somatic and parental investment, which is predicted to involve time orientation/preference as a mediating psychological mechanism. Here, we draw upon life-history theory (LHT) to investigate associations between future orientation and fertility, and their impacts on carbon emissions. We argue ' K -strategy' life history (LH) in high-income countries has resulted in parental investment behaviours involving future orientation that, paradoxically, promote unsustainable carbon emissions, thereby lowering the Earth's K or carrying capacity. Increasing the rate of approach towards this capacity are ' r -strategy' LHs in low-income countries that promote population growth. We explore interactions between future orientation and development that might slow the rate of approach towards global K . Examination of 67 000 individuals across 75 countries suggests that future orientation interacts with the relationship between environmental risk and fertility and with development related parental investment, particularly investment in higher education, to slow population growth and mitigate per capita carbon emissions. Results emphasize that LHT will be an important tool in understanding the demographic and consumption patterns that drive anthropogenic climate change.

Response to selection while maximizing genetic variance in small populations.

PubMed

Cervantes, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo; Meuwissen, Theo H E

2016-09-20

Rare breeds represent a valuable resource for future market demands. These populations are usually well-adapted, but their low census compromises the genetic diversity and future of these breeds. Since improvement of a breed for commercial traits may also confer higher probabilities of survival for the breed, it is important to achieve good responses to artificial selection. Therefore, efficient genetic management of these populations is essential to ensure that they respond adequately to genetic selection in possible future artificial selection scenarios. Scenarios that maximize the maximum genetic variance in a unique population could be a valuable option. The aim of this work was to study the effect of the maximization of genetic variance to increase selection response and improve the capacity of a population to adapt to a new environment/production system. We simulated a random scenario (A), a full-sib scenario (B), a scenario applying the maximum variance total (MVT) method (C), a MVT scenario with a restriction on increases in average inbreeding (D), a MVT scenario with a restriction on average individual increases in inbreeding (E), and a minimum coancestry scenario (F). Twenty replicates of each scenario were simulated for 100 generations, followed by 10 generations of selection. Effective population size was used to monitor the outcomes of these scenarios. Although the best response to selection was achieved in scenarios B and C, they were discarded because they are unpractical. Scenario A was also discarded because of its low response to selection. Scenario D yielded less response to selection and a smaller effective population size than scenario E, for which response to selection was higher during early generations because of the moderately structured population. In scenario F, response to selection was slightly higher than in Scenario E in the last generations. Application of MVT with a restriction on individual increases in inbreeding resulted in the largest response to selection during early generations, but if inbreeding depression is a concern, a minimum coancestry scenario is then a valuable alternative, in particular for a long-term response to selection.

Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2005-05-01

Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From the estimation of present stress level (withdrawal to resource ratio), the months between January to May was found to have the highest number of population above water stress level, while the months between June to August having lower population in stress. The regions suffering from high seasonal variability are those of Asian monsoon zone, south-central Africa and central-east part of South America. Inter-annual variability, on the other hand, is dominant mostly along the Middle-east or Sahara regions and the western part of South America and Latin America. Virtual water trading among countries was estimated on per capita basis. It shows that many Middle east countries are able to compensate their water stress significantly through virtual water trading. The overall effect of climate change on lowering of river runoff mostly affected Europe, southern part of China and Latin America. India or Central Africa have better runoff availability under changing climate, but still subject to a higher water stress because of socio-economic factors like high population growth and expected increase in rate of water uses. Decrease in population as well as saturation level of maximum water uses along most European countries, on the contrary, relaxed the pressure of lowering river runoff, causing no significant change in future stress.

An adjusted bed net coverage indicator with estimations for 23 African countries

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Many studies have assessed the level of bed net coverage in populations at risk of malaria infection. These revealed large variations in bed net use across countries, regions and social strata. Such studies are often aimed at identifying populations with low access to bed nets that should be prioritized in future interventions. However, often spatial differences in malaria endemicity are not taken into account. By ignoring variability in malaria endemicity, these studies prioritize populations with little access to bed nets, even if these happen to live in low endemicity areas. Conversely, populations living in regions with high malaria endemicity will receive a lower priority once a seizable proportion is protected by bed nets. Adequately assigning priorities requires accounting for both the current level of bed net coverage and the local malaria endemicity. Indeed, as shown here for 23 African countries, there is no correlation between the level of bed net coverage and the level of malaria endemicity in a region. Therefore, the need for future interventions can not be assessed based on current bed net coverage alone. This paper proposes the Adjusted Bed net Coverage (ABC) statistic as a measure taking into account both local malaria endemicity and the level of bed net coverage. The measure allows setting priorities for future interventions taking into account both local malaria endemicity and bed net coverage. Methods A mathematical formulation of the ABC as a weighted difference of bed net coverage and malaria endemicity is presented. The formulation is parameterized based on a model of malaria epidemiology (Smith et al. Trends Parasitol 25:511-516, 2009). By parameterizing the ABC based on this model, the ABC as used in this paper is proxy for the steady-state malaria burden given the current level of bed net coverage. Data on the bed net coverage in under five year olds and malaria endemicity in 23 Sub-Saharan countries is used to show that the ABC prioritizes different populations than the level of bed net coverage by itself. Data from the following countries was used: Angola, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Congo Democratic Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The priority order given by the ABC and the bed net coverage are compared at the countries’ level, the first level administrative divisions and for five different wealth quintiles. Results Both at national level and at the level of the administrative divisions the ABC suggests a different priority order for selecting countries and divisions for future interventions. When taking into account malaria endemicity, measures assessing equality in access to bed nets across wealth quintiles, such as slopes of inequality, are prone to change. This suggests that when assessing inequality in access to bed nets one should take into account the local malaria endemicity for populations from different wealth quintiles. Conclusion Accounting for malaria endemicity highlights different countries, regions and socio-economic strata for future intervention than the bed net coverage by itself. Therefore, care should be taken to factor out any effects of local malaria endemicity in assessing bed net coverage and in prioritizing populations for further scale-up of bed net coverage. The ABC is proposed as a simple means to do this that is derived from an existing model of malaria epidemiology. PMID:24359227

Inferring population structure and demographic history using Y-STR data from worldwide populations.

PubMed

Xu, Hongyang; Wang, Chuan-Chao; Shrestha, Rukesh; Wang, Ling-Xiang; Zhang, Manfei; He, Yungang; Kidd, Judith R; Kidd, Kenneth K; Jin, Li; Li, Hui

2015-02-01

The Y chromosome is one of the best genetic materials to explore the evolutionary history of human populations. Global analyses of Y chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) data can reveal very interesting world population structures and histories. However, previous Y-STR works tended to focus on small geographical ranges or only included limited sample sizes. In this study, we have investigated population structure and demographic history using 17 Y chromosomal STRs data of 979 males from 44 worldwide populations. The largest genetic distances have been observed between pairs of African and non-African populations. American populations with the lowest genetic diversities also showed large genetic distances and coancestry coefficients with other populations, whereas Eurasian populations displayed close genetic affinities. African populations tend to have the oldest time to the most recent common ancestors (TMRCAs), the largest effective population sizes and the earliest expansion times, whereas the American, Siberian, Melanesian, and isolated Atayal populations have the most recent TMRCAs and expansion times, and the smallest effective population sizes. This clear geographic pattern is well consistent with serial founder model for the origin of populations outside Africa. The Y-STR dataset presented here provides the most detailed view of worldwide population structure and human male demographic history, and additionally will be of great benefit to future forensic applications and population genetic studies.

Developmental Programming: State-of-the-Science and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Sutton, Elizabeth F.; Gilmore, L. Anne; Dunger, David B.; Heijmans, Bas T.; Hivert, Marie-France; Ling, Charlotte; Martinez, J. Alfredo; Ozanne, Susan E.; Simmons, Rebecca A.; Szyf, Moshe; Waterland, Robert A.; Redman, Leanne M.; Ravussin, Eric

2016-01-01

Objective On December 8–9, 2014, the Pennington Biomedical Research Center convened a scientific symposium to review the state-of-the-science and future directions for the study of developmental programming of obesity and chronic disease. The objectives of the symposium were to discuss: (i) past and current scientific advances in animal models, population-based cohort studies and human clinical trials, (ii) the state-of-the-science of epigenetic-based research, and (iii) considerations for future studies. Results The overarching goal was to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state of the scientific field, to identify research gaps and opportunities for future research in order to identify and understand the mechanisms contributing to the developmental programming of health and disease. Conclusions Identifying the mechanisms which cause or contribute to developmental programming of future generations will be invaluable to the scientific and medical community. The ability to intervene during critical periods of prenatal and early postnatal life to promote lifelong health is the ultimate goal. Considerations for future research including the use of animal models, the study design in human cohorts with considerations about the timing of the intrauterine exposure and the resulting tissue specific epigenetic signature were extensively discussed and are presented in this meeting summary. PMID:27037645

Rapid ongoing decline of Baird's tapir in Cusuco National Park, Honduras.

PubMed

McCANN, Niall P; Wheeler, Phil M; Coles, Tim; Bruford, Michael W

2012-12-01

During the International Tapir Symposium 16-21 Oct 2011, the conservation of Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) in Honduras received a boost with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Minister Director of the Honduran Institute of Conservation and Forestry (ICF) and the Tapir Specialist Group (TSG). Despite this agreement, accelerating levels of hunting and habitat loss continue to pose a threat to Baird's tapir in Honduras. An ongoing study in Cusuco National Park in northwestern Honduras has been monitoring changes in population dynamics of Baird's tapir since 2006 through the collection of occupancy data. The study has identified an increase in hunting pressure, coinciding with a drastic decline in the encounter rate with Baird's tapir spoor. Here, we examine the significance of a range of demographic variables on Baird's tapir occupancy in Cusuco National Park using the software PRESENCE, and simulate the effects of different management strategies on the future dynamics of the population using the stochastic simulation software VORTEX. The predictions of the theoretical population models are compared to observed changes in occupancy levels. We found that non-intervention resulted in the local extinction of Baird's tapir within a very short time frame, but that various intervention models enabled the population to recover to near carrying capacity. Occupancy and extinction probability were shown to respond markedly to the increase in hunting pressure; and occupancy models supported the future population predictions generated by VORTEX. Our study suggests that immediate intervention is required to reduce hunting pressure to near historical levels to prevent the imminent local extinction of the species. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

PGG.Population: a database for understanding the genomic diversity and genetic ancestry of human populations

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chao; Gao, Yang; Liu, Jiaojiao; Xue, Zhe; Lu, Yan; Deng, Lian; Tian, Lei; Feng, Qidi

2018-01-01

Abstract There are a growing number of studies focusing on delineating genetic variations that are associated with complex human traits and diseases due to recent advances in next-generation sequencing technologies. However, identifying and prioritizing disease-associated causal variants relies on understanding the distribution of genetic variations within and among populations. The PGG.Population database documents 7122 genomes representing 356 global populations from 107 countries and provides essential information for researchers to understand human genomic diversity and genetic ancestry. These data and information can facilitate the design of research studies and the interpretation of results of both evolutionary and medical studies involving human populations. The database is carefully maintained and constantly updated when new data are available. We included miscellaneous functions and a user-friendly graphical interface for visualization of genomic diversity, population relationships (genetic affinity), ancestral makeup, footprints of natural selection, and population history etc. Moreover, PGG.Population provides a useful feature for users to analyze data and visualize results in a dynamic style via online illustration. The long-term ambition of the PGG.Population, together with the joint efforts from other researchers who contribute their data to our database, is to create a comprehensive depository of geographic and ethnic variation of human genome, as well as a platform bringing influence on future practitioners of medicine and clinical investigators. PGG.Population is available at https://www.pggpopulation.org. PMID:29112749

Discrimination of Picea chihuahuana Martinez populations on the basis of climatic, edaphic, dendrometric, genetic and population traits

PubMed Central

Dominguez-Guerrero, Iliana Karina; del Rocío Mariscal-Lucero, Samantha; Hernández-Díaz, José Ciro; Heinze, Berthold; Prieto-Ruiz, José Ángel

2017-01-01

Background Picea chihuahuana, which is endemic to Mexico, is currently listed as “Endangered” on the Red List. Chihuahua spruce is only found in the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), Mexico. About 42,600 individuals are distributed in forty populations. These populations are fragmented and can be classified into three geographically distinct clusters in the SMO. The total area covered by P. chihuahuana populations is less than 300 ha. A recent study suggested assisted migration as an alternative to the ex situ conservation of P. chihuahuana, taking into consideration the genetic structure and diversity of the populations and the predictions regarding the future climate of the habitat. However, detailed background information is required to enable development of plans for protecting and conserving species and for successful assisted migration. Thus, it is important to identify differences between populations in relation to environmental conditions. The genetic diversity of populations, which affect vigor, evolution and adaptability of the species, must also be considered. In this study, we examined 14 populations of P. chihuahuana, with the overall aim of discriminating the populations and form clusters of this species. Methods Each population was represented by one 50 × 50 m plot established in the center of its respective location. Climate, soil, dasometric, density variables and genetic and species diversities were assessed in these plots for further analyses. The putatively neutral and adaptive AFLP markers were used to calculate genetic diversity. Affinity Propagation (AP) clustering technique and k-means clustering algorithm were used to classify the populations in the optimal number of clusters. Later stepwise binomial logistic regression was applied to test for significant differences in variables of the southern and northern P. chihuahuana populations. Spearman’s correlation test was used to analyze the relationships among all variables studied. Results The binomial logistic regression analysis revealed that seven climate variables, the geographical longitude and sand proportion in the soil separated the southern from northern populations. The northern populations grow in more arid and continental conditions and on soils with lower sand proportion. The mean genetic diversity using all AFLP studied of P. chihuahuana was significantly correlated with the mean temperature in the warmest month, where warmer temperatures are associated to larger genetic diversity. Genetic diversity of P. chihuahuana calculated with putatively adaptive AFLP was not statistically significantly correlated with any environmental factor. Discussion Future reforestation programs should take into account that at least two different groups (the northern and southern cluster) of P. chihuahuana exist, as local adaptation takes place because of different environmental conditions. PMID:28626616

Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Forchhammer, Mads C

2004-06-22

According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here, we present an analysis of century-scale, spatially replicated data on local weather and the population dynamics of caribou in Greenland. Our results indicate that spatial autocorrelation in local weather has increased with large-scale climatic warming. This increase in spatial synchrony of environmental conditions has been matched, in turn, by an increase in the spatial synchrony of local caribou populations toward the end of the 20th century. Our results indicate that spatial synchrony in environmental conditions and the populations influenced by them are highly variable through time and can increase with climatic warming. We suggest that if future warming can increase population synchrony, it may also increase extinction risk.

The spatial patterns of directional phenotypic selection.

PubMed

Siepielski, Adam M; Gotanda, Kiyoko M; Morrissey, Michael B; Diamond, Sarah E; DiBattista, Joseph D; Carlson, Stephanie M

2013-11-01

Local adaptation, adaptive population divergence and speciation are often expected to result from populations evolving in response to spatial variation in selection. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the major features that characterise the spatial patterns of selection, namely the extent of variation among populations in the strength and direction of selection. Here, we analyse a data set of spatially replicated studies of directional phenotypic selection from natural populations. The data set includes 60 studies, consisting of 3937 estimates of selection across an average of five populations. We performed meta-analyses to explore features characterising spatial variation in directional selection. We found that selection tends to vary mainly in strength and less in direction among populations. Although differences in the direction of selection occur among populations they do so where selection is often weakest, which may limit the potential for ongoing adaptive population divergence. Overall, we also found that spatial variation in selection appears comparable to temporal (annual) variation in selection within populations; however, several deficiencies in available data currently complicate this comparison. We discuss future research needs to further advance our understanding of spatial variation in selection. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Future Directions: Advances and Implications of Virtual Environments Designed for Pain Management

PubMed Central

Soomro, Ahmad; Riva, Giuseppe; Wiederhold, Mark D.

2014-01-01

Abstract Pain symptoms have been addressed with a variety of therapeutic measures in the past, but as we look to the future, we begin encountering new options for patient care and individual health and well-being. Recent studies indicate that computer-generated graphic environments—virtual reality (VR)—can offer effective cognitive distractions for individuals suffering from pain arising from a variety of physical and psychological illnesses. Studies also indicate the effectiveness of VR for both chronic and acute pain conditions. Future possibilities for VR to address pain-related concerns include such diverse groups as military personnel, space exploration teams, the general labor force, and our ever increasing elderly population. VR also shows promise to help in such areas as drug abuse, at-home treatments, and athletic injuries. PMID:24892206

Future directions: advances and implications of virtual environments designed for pain management.

PubMed

Wiederhold, Brenda K; Soomro, Ahmad; Riva, Giuseppe; Wiederhold, Mark D

2014-06-01

Pain symptoms have been addressed with a variety of therapeutic measures in the past, but as we look to the future, we begin encountering new options for patient care and individual health and well-being. Recent studies indicate that computer-generated graphic environments--virtual reality (VR)--can offer effective cognitive distractions for individuals suffering from pain arising from a variety of physical and psychological illnesses. Studies also indicate the effectiveness of VR for both chronic and acute pain conditions. Future possibilities for VR to address pain-related concerns include such diverse groups as military personnel, space exploration teams, the general labor force, and our ever increasing elderly population. VR also shows promise to help in such areas as drug abuse, at-home treatments, and athletic injuries.

Humanity in a Dish: Population Genetics with iPSCs.

PubMed

Warren, Curtis R; Cowan, Chad A

2018-01-01

Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) are powerful tools for investigating the relationship between genotype and phenotype. Recent publications have described iPSC cohort studies of common genetic variants and their effects on gene expression and cellular phenotypes. These in vitro quantitative trait locus (QTL) studies are the first experiments in a new paradigm with great potential: iPSC-based functional population genetic studies. iPSC collections from large cohorts are currently under development to facilitate the next wave of these studies, which have the potential to discover the effects of common genetic variants on cellular phenotypes and to uncover the molecular basis of common genetic diseases. Here, we describe the recent advances in this developing field, and provide a road map for future in vitro functional population genetic studies and trial-in-a-dish experiments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hispanic Older Adult Health & Longevity in the United States: Current Patterns & Concerns for the Future.

PubMed

Hummer, Robert A; Hayward, Mark D

2015-01-01

The Hispanic population aged sixty-five and over - the most socioeconomically disadvantaged subset of America's elderly - is projected to quintuple between 2012 and 2050. While current longevity patterns for Hispanics relative to whites are favorable, old-age functioning and disability patterns for Hispanics are unfavorable and have serious implications for caregivers; families; and local, state, and federal governments. Troubling signs for the future Hispanic population (which are shared to varying degrees with other vulnerable groups) include the unresolved legal status of unauthorized immigrants, continued low levels of insurance coverage even after health care reform, some unfavorable trends in health behaviors, and continued disadvantages in educational attainment and income relative to whites. We urge policy-makers to deal with these potentially problematic health and well-being issues. Not doing so could have detrimental consequences for the future of the Hispanic population as well as other at-risk groups and, by extension, the U.S. elderly population as a whole.

[Design of the general population study NEMESIS-2: Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2].

PubMed

de Graaf, Ron; Ten Have, Margreet; van Dorsselaer, Saskia

2012-01-01

The longitudinal epidemiological population study NEMESIS-2 (Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2) replicates the first study conducted from 1996 to 1999, and expands it by adding new subjects such as impulse-control disorders. To describe the aims and design of nemesis-2, particularly of its first round of measurements, to provide up-to-date figures on prevalence, incidence, course and consequences of mental disorders and associated factors, and to study trends in the mental health of the population aged 18-64 years and the use these people make of psychiatric services. Face-to-face interviews were conducted (November 2007-July 2009) by means of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0. The response was 65.1% (n = 6646). Respondents were reasonably representative for the population, but young persons were somewhat underrepresented. Two follow-up rounds of measurements are planned with three-year intervals between the rounds. The second round of measurements began in November 2010. A qualitatively good dataset was built up. This will allow several mental health topics to be studied in the future.

Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

2017-10-01

Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Community Needs Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chrismer, John M.

This document reports a needs assessment study designed and conducted to provide South Seattle Community College (SSCC) with information about the present and future educational, occupational training, and cultural needs of the total community served. Results of the survey are divided into chapters covering a specific population of the community…

Epidemiologic studies of electric and magnetic fields and cancer: strategies for extending knowledge.

PubMed Central

Savitz, D A

1993-01-01

Epidemiologic research concerning electric and magnetic fields in relation to cancer has focused on the potential etiologic roles of residential exposure on childhood cancer and occupational exposure on adult leukemia and brain cancer. Future residential studies must concentrate on exposure assessment that is enhanced by developing models of historical exposure, assessment of the relation between magnetic fields and wire codes, and consideration of alternate exposure indices. Study design issues deserving attention include possible biases in random digit dialing control selection, consideration of the temporal course of exposure and disease, and acquisition of the necessary information to assess the potential value of ecologic studies. Highest priorities are comprehensive evaluation of exposure patterns and sources and examination of the sociology and geography of residential wire codes. Future occupational studies should also concentrate on improved exposure assessment with increased attention to nonutility worker populations and development of historical exposure indicators that are superior to job titles alone. Potential carcinogens in the workplace that could act as confounders need to be more carefully examined. The temporal relation between exposure and disease and possible effect modification by other workplace agents should be incorporated into future studies. The most pressing need is for measurement of exposure patterns in a variety of worker populations and performance of traditional epidemiologic evaluations of cancer occurrence. The principal source of bias toward the null is nondifferential misclassification of exposure with improvements expected to enhance any true etiologic association that is present. Biases away from the null might include biased control selection in residential studies and chemical carcinogens acting as confounders in occupational studies. PMID:8206046

Recruiting and enrolling pregnant adolescents for research.

PubMed

Kaiser, Margaret M; Hays, Bevely J

2006-01-01

Difficulty obtaining a sample is not justification for failure to study a hard-to-enroll population, particularly a vulnerable population such as pregnant adolescents. Recruitment of a representative, adequate sample of pregnant adolescents for a recent instrument development study provided multiple challenges. Although carefully developed, the sampling plan required several modifications to achieve the sample (n=145). Those challenges and the ensuing modifications to the sampling plan are discussed in relation to (a) access/institutional concerns, (b) the human subject's protection considerations, and (c) developmental/personal concerns of the pregnant adolescents. Recommendations for sampling strategies for future research are offered.

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara

2017-01-01

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

Sultanate of Oman: building a dental workforce.

PubMed

Gallagher, Jennifer E; Manickam, Sivakumar; Wilson, Nairn H F

2015-06-22

A medium- and long-term perspective is required in human resource development to ensure that future needs and demands for oral healthcare are met by the most appropriate health professionals. This paper presents a case study of the Sultanate of Oman, one of the Gulf States with a current population of 3.8 million, which has initiated dental training through the creation of a dental college. The objectives of this paper are first to describe trends in the dental workforce in Oman from 1990 to date and compare the dental workforce with its medical counterparts in Oman and with other countries, and second, to consider future dental workforce in the Sultanate. Data were collected from published sources, including the Ministry of Health (MoH), Ministry of Manpower (MoM), and Ministry of National Economy (MoNE)-Sultanate of Oman; the World Health Organization (WHO); World Bank; and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Dentist-to-population ratios were compared nationally, regionally and globally for medicine and dentistry. Dental graduate outputs were mapped onto the local supply. Future trends were examined using population growth predictions, exploring the expected impact in relation to global, regional and European workforce densities. Population growth in Oman is increasing at a rate of over 2% per year. Oman has historically been dependent upon an expatriate dental workforce with only 24% of the dentist workforce Omani in 2010 (n = 160). Subsequent to Oman Dental College (ODC) starting to qualify dental (BDS) graduates in 2012, there is an increase in the annual growth of the dentist workforce. On the assumption that all future dental graduates from ODC have an opportunity to practise in Oman, ODC graduates will boost the annual Omani dentist growth rate starting at 28% per annum from 2012 onwards, building capacity towards global (n = 1711) and regional levels (Gulf State: n = 2167) in the medium term. The output of dental graduates from Oman Dental College is improving the dentist-to-population ratio and helping the Sultanate to realize its aim of developing an Omani-majority dental workforce. The implications for retention of dentists and team training are discussed.

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.

The role of job strain in understanding midlife common mental disorder: a national birth cohort study.

PubMed

Harvey, Samuel B; Sellahewa, Dilan A; Wang, Min-Jung; Milligan-Saville, Josie; Bryan, Bridget T; Henderson, Max; Hatch, Stephani L; Mykletun, Arnstein

2018-06-01

Long-standing concerns exist about reverse causation and residual confounding in the prospective association between job strain and risk of future common mental disorders. We aimed to address these concerns through analysis of data collected in the UK National Child Development Study, a large British cohort study. Data from the National Child Development Study (n=6870) were analysed by use of multivariate logistic regression to investigate the prospective association between job strain variables at age 45 years and risk of future common mental disorders at age 50 years, controlling for lifetime psychiatric history and a range of other possible confounding variables across the lifecourse. Population attributable fractions were calculated to estimate the public health effect of job strain on midlife mental health. In the final model, adjusted for all measured confounders, high job demands (odds ratio 1·70, 95% CI 1·25-2·32; p=0·0008), low job control (1·89, 1·29-2·77; p=0·0010), and high job strain (2·22, 1·59-3·09; p<0·0001) remained significant independent predictors of future onset of common mental disorder. If causality is assumed, our findings suggest that 14% of new cases of common mental disorder could have been prevented through elimination of high job strain (population attributable fraction 0·14, 0·06-0·20). High job strain appears to independently affect the risk of future common mental disorders in midlife. These findings suggest that modifiable work-related risk factors might be an important target in efforts to reduce the prevalence of common mental disorders. iCare Foundation and Mental Health Branch, NSW Health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dietary Sodium Consumption Predicts Future Blood Pressure and Incident Hypertension in the Japanese Normotensive General Population

PubMed Central

Takase, Hiroyuki; Sugiura, Tomonori; Kimura, Genjiro; Ohte, Nobuyuki; Dohi, Yasuaki

2015-01-01

Background Although there is a close relationship between dietary sodium and hypertension, the concept that persons with relatively high dietary sodium are at increased risk of developing hypertension compared with those with relatively low dietary sodium has not been studied intensively in a cohort. Methods and Results We conducted an observational study to investigate whether dietary sodium intake predicts future blood pressure and the onset of hypertension in the general population. Individual sodium intake was estimated by calculating 24-hour urinary sodium excretion from spot urine in 4523 normotensive participants who visited our hospital for a health checkup. After a baseline examination, they were followed for a median of 1143 days, with the end point being development of hypertension. During the follow-up period, hypertension developed in 1027 participants (22.7%). The risk of developing hypertension was higher in those with higher rather than lower sodium intake (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.50). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, baseline sodium intake and the yearly change in sodium intake during the follow-up period (as continuous variables) correlated with the incidence of hypertension. Furthermore, both the yearly increase in sodium intake and baseline sodium intake showed significant correlations with the yearly increase in systolic blood pressure in multivariate regression analysis after adjustment for possible risk factors. Conclusions Both relatively high levels of dietary sodium intake and gradual increases in dietary sodium are associated with future increases in blood pressure and the incidence of hypertension in the Japanese general population. PMID:26224048

Shifting the lens: the introduction of population-based funding in Alberta.

PubMed

Smith, Neale; Church, John

2008-01-01

This paper offers a detailed historical description of the development of Alberta's population-based funding model for Regional Health Authorities (RHAs). It focuses on key political factors that may have facilitated this transition--in particular, the role of institutions, organized interests, and ideas and values. Understanding the politics of policy change as exemplified in this case can be useful in assessing future prospects for health system reform in Canada and laying the groundwork for further comparative study.

Population Education in the United States: A Report to the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Viederman, Stephen

Population education is a planned, integrated, and sequential approach to population learning. It is defined as the process by which the student investigates the nature and meaning of population processes and characteristics, the causes of population changes, and the consequences of these for himself, his family, his society, and the world. Its…

Hubbert's Peak: A Physicist's View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Richard

2011-11-01

Oil and its by-products, as used in manufacturing, agriculture, and transportation, are the lifeblood of today's 7 billion-person population and our 65T world economy. Despite this importance, estimates of future oil production seem dominated by wishful thinking rather than quantitative analysis. Better studies are needed. In 1956, Dr. M.King Hubbert proposed a theory of resource production and applied it successfully to predict peak U.S. oil production in 1970. Thus, the peak of oil production is referred to as ``Hubbert's Peak.'' Prof. Al Bartlett extended this work in publications and lectures on population and oil. Both Hubbert and Bartlett place peak world oil production at a similar time, essentially now. This paper extends this line of work to include analyses of individual countries, inclusion of multiple Gaussian peaks, and analysis of reserves data. While this is not strictly a predictive theory, we will demonstrate a ``closed'' story connecting production, oil-in-place, and reserves. This gives us the ``most likely'' estimate of future oil availability. Finally, we will comment on synthetic oil and the possibility of carbon-neutral synthetic oil for a sustainable future.

Opportunities for Enhanced Strategic Use of Surveys, Medical Records, and Program Data for HIV Surveillance of Key Populations: Scoping Review

PubMed Central

Baral, Stefan D; Edwards, Jessie K; Zadrozny, Sabrina; Hargreaves, James; Zhao, Jinkou; Sabin, Keith

2018-01-01

Background Normative guidelines from the World Health Organization recommend tracking strategic information indicators among key populations. Monitoring progress in the global response to the HIV epidemic uses indicators put forward by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. These include the 90-90-90 targets that require a realignment of surveillance data, routinely collected program data, and medical record data, which historically have developed separately. Objective The aim of this study was to describe current challenges for monitoring HIV-related strategic information indicators among key populations ((men who have sex with men [MSM], people in prisons and other closed settings, people who inject drugs, sex workers, and transgender people) and identify future opportunities to enhance the use of surveillance data, programmatic data, and medical record data to describe the HIV epidemic among key populations and measure the coverage of HIV prevention, care, and treatment programs. Methods To provide a historical perspective, we completed a scoping review of the expansion of HIV surveillance among key populations over the past three decades. To describe current efforts, we conducted a review of the literature to identify published examples of SI indicator estimates among key populations. To describe anticipated challenges and future opportunities to improve measurement of strategic information indicators, particularly from routine program and health data, we consulted participants of the Third Global HIV Surveillance Meeting in Bangkok, where the 2015 World Health Organization strategic information guidelines were launched. Results There remains suboptimal alignment of surveillance and programmatic data, as well as routinely collected medical records to facilitate the reporting of the 90-90-90 indicators for HIV among key populations. Studies (n=3) with estimates of all three 90-90-90 indicators rely on cross-sectional survey data. Programmatic data and medical record data continue to be insufficiently robust to provide estimates of the 90-90-90 targets for key populations. Conclusions Current reliance on more active data collection processes, including key population-specific surveys, remains warranted until the quality and validity of passively collected routine program and medical record data for key populations is optimized. PMID:29789279

An Exploratory Study of a Measure of Vocational Identity for Spanish-Speaking Persons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tosado, Luis Antonio, II

2012-01-01

Two overlapping issues have given rise to this study: the need for assessment instruments to use with Spanish-speaking Latinos and the need for normative data on current and future Spanish-language instruments. Numerous career assessment instruments exist for the English-speaking population. These instruments may be administered on computer-based…

Radar, Insect Population Ecology, and Pest Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaughn, C. R. (Editor); Wolf, W. (Editor); Klassen, W. (Editor)

1979-01-01

Discussions included: (1) the potential role of radar in insect ecology studies and pest management; (2) the potential role of radar in correlating atmospheric phenomena with insect movement; (3) the present and future radar systems; (4) program objectives required to adapt radar to insect ecology studies and pest management; and (5) the specific action items to achieve the objectives.

Quality Development in Higher Education to Meet the Future Needs of Arkansas. Report of the Quality Higher Education Study Committee.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arkansas State Dept. of Higher Education, Little Rock.

A report of the Quality Higher Education Study Committee on state-supported institutions in Arkansas is presented, including 43 recommendations. Attention is directed to: economic characteristics in the state (business indicators, population and growth, personal and family income); social characteristics in the state (education levels, illiteracy,…

Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

PubMed

Hu, Zhongkai; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Y; Zhu, Chunqing; Zhao, Yifan; Hao, Shiying; Zheng, Le; Fu, Changlin; Wen, Qiaojun; Ji, Jun; Li, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Zheng, Xiaolin; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-13

An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for ED visits across all payers, all diseases, and all age groups. Therefore, providers can implement targeted care management strategies to the patient subgroups with similar patterns of clinical histories, driving the delivery of more efficient and effective health care interventions. To the best of our knowledge, this prospectively validated EMR-based, Web-based tool is the first one to allow real-time total population risk assessment for statewide ED visits.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-02-10

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapitza, Sergei P.

1996-01-01

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

PubMed Central

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-01-01

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

Decision-making and addiction (part II): myopia for the future or hypersensitivity to reward?

PubMed

Bechara, Antoine; Dolan, Sara; Hindes, Andrea

2002-01-01

On a decision-making instrument known as the "gambling task" (GT), a subgroup of substance dependent individuals (SDI) opted for choices that yield high immediate gains in spite of higher future losses. This resembles the behavior of patients with ventromedial (VM) prefrontal cortex lesions. In this study, we addressed the possibility that hypersensitivity to reward may account for the "myopia" for the future in this subgroup of SDI. We used a variant version of the GT, in which the good decks yielded high immediate punishment but higher delayed reward. The bad decks yielded low immediate punishment and lower delayed reward. We measured the skin conductance response (SCR) of subjects after receiving reward (reward SCR) and during their pondering from which deck to choose (anticipatory SCR). A subgroup of SDI who was not impaired on the original GT performed normally on the variant GT. The subgroup of SDI who was impaired on the original GT showed two levels of performance on the variant GT. One subgroup (36% of the sample) performed poorly on the variant GT, and showed similar behavioral and physiological impairments to VM patients. The other subgroup of SDI (64% of the sample) performed normally on the variant task, but had abnormally large physiological responses to reward, i.e. large SCR after receiving reward (reward SCR) and large SCR in anticipation of outcomes that yield large reward. Thus, the combined cognitive and physiological approach of assessing decision-making characterizes three sub-populations of SDI. One sub-population is without impairments that can be detected by any measure of the GT paradigm. Another sub-population is similar to VM patients in that they are insensitive to the future, both positive and negative. A third sub-population is hypersensitive to reward, so that the presence or the prospect of receiving, reward dominates their behavior.

Update on the Epidemiology of Concussion/Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Voss, Jameson D; Connolly, Joseph; Schwab, Karen A; Scher, Ann I

2015-07-01

Mild traumatic injuries to the brain (e.g., concussion) are common and have been recognized since antiquity, although definitions have varied historically. Nonetheless, studying the epidemiology of concussion helps clarify the overall importance, risk factors, and at-risk populations for this injury. The present review will focus on recent findings related to the epidemiology of concussion including definition controversies, incidence, and patterns in the population overall and in the military and athlete populations specifically. Finally, as this is an area of active research, we will discuss how future epidemiologic observations hold promise for gaining greater clarity about concussion and mild traumatic brain injury.

After the Gap Analysis: Education and Practice Changes to Prepare Nurses of the Future.

PubMed

Beauvais, Audrey Marie; Kazer, Meredith Wallace; Aronson, Barbara; Conlon, Suzanne E; Forte, Pamela; Fries, Kathleen S; Hahn, Judith M; Hullstrung, Russell; Levvis, Meg; McCauley, Paula; Morgan, Patricia Padula; Perfetto, Linda; Rebeschi, Lisa M; Solernou, Sheila B; Span, Patricia; Sundean, Lisa J

The purpose of the study was to describe the Connecticut Nursing Collaborative-Action Coalition's work in identifying and addressing gaps between nursing education and practice based on the Institute of Medicine's Future of Nursing report. Massachusetts Nurse of the Future (NOF) Competencies highlight the knowledge, skills, and attitudes/behaviors required for professional nurses. Integrating these concepts into the educational system will prepare the nursing workforce to respond to current/future health care needs and population health issues. Education and practice partners in four regions conducted a gap analysis of the education to practice transition for new graduate nurses using NOF as a framework for assessment. Gaps in competencies were similar across regions. However, each organization uniquely addressed curricular gaps to best prepare nurses of the future. Curriculum improvements will provide students the advantage of being prepared for the rapid changes happening in health care.

Past and future demographic dynamics of alpine species: limited genetic consequences despite dramatic range contraction in a plant from the Spanish Sierra Nevada.

PubMed

Blanco-Pastor, J L; Fernández-Mazuecos, M; Vargas, P

2013-08-01

Anthropogenic global climate change is expected to cause severe range contractions among alpine plants. Alpine areas in the Mediterranean region are of special concern because of the high abundance of endemic species with narrow ranges. This study combined species distribution models, population structure analyses and Bayesian skyline plots to trace the past and future distribution and diversity of Linaria glacialis, an endangered narrow endemic species that inhabits summits of Sierra Nevada (Spain). The results showed that: (i) the habitat of this alpine-Mediterranean species in Sierra Nevada suffered little changes during glacial and interglacial stages of late Quaternary; (ii) climatic oscillations in the last millennium (Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age) moderately affected the demographic trends of L. glacialis; (iii) future warming conditions will cause severe range contractions; and (iv) genetic diversity will not diminish at the same pace as the distribution range. As a consequence of the low population structure of this species, genetic impoverishment in the alpine zones of Sierra Nevada should be limited during range contraction. We conclude that maintenance of large effective population sizes via high mutation rates and high levels of gene flow may promote the resilience of alpine plant species when confronted with global warming. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil.

PubMed

Scovronick, Noah; França, Daniela; Alonso, Marcelo; Almeida, Claudia; Longo, Karla; Freitas, Saulo; Rudorff, Bernardo; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-07-11

It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil's high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m³ and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline.

Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil

PubMed Central

Scovronick, Noah; França, Daniela; Alonso, Marcelo; Almeida, Claudia; Longo, Karla; Freitas, Saulo; Rudorff, Bernardo; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-01-01

It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil’s high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m3 and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline. PMID:27409628

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

PubMed Central

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis. PMID:25760037

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

PubMed

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.

Expected increase in staple crop imports in water-scarce countries in 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouchane, Hatem; Krol, Maarten; Hoekstra, Arjen

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a major challenge in the coming decades. The increasing population and the changing pattern of water availability that results from global warming reduce the potential of sufficient food production in many countries over the world. Today, two thirds of the global population are already living under conditions of severe water scarcity at least one month of the year. This rises the importance of addressing the present and future relationship between water availability and food import in water-scarce countries. The net import of staple crops (barley, cassava, maize, millet and products, oats, potatoes, rice, rye, sorghum, soybeans, sweet potatoes, wheat and yams) is analysed in relation to water availability per capita for the period 1961-2010, considering five decadal averages. The relation found is used together with the low, medium and high population growth scenarios from the United Nations to project the staple crops import in water-scarce countries for the year 2050. Additionally, we investigate the uncertainties related to the three population scenarios. Results will help countries to better understand the impact of population growth and limited water resources on their future food trade. This study will provide a valuable supporting tool for policy makers towards more sustainable and water-efficient food production as targeted with the Sustainable Development Goals. Keywords: Water Availability, Food Import, Staple Crops, Water Scarcity, Water-Use Efficiency, Sustainable Development Goals.

High intra-specific variation in avian body condition responses to climate limits generalisation across species

PubMed Central

van der Jeugd, Henk P.; van de Pol, Martijn

2018-01-01

It is generally assumed that populations of a species will have similar responses to climate change, and thereby that a single value of sensitivity will reflect species-specific responses. However, this assumption is rarely systematically tested. High intraspecific variation will have consequences for identifying species- or population-level traits that can predict differences in sensitivity, which in turn can affect the reliability of projections of future climate change impacts. We investigate avian body condition responses to changes in six climatic variables and how consistent and generalisable these responses are both across and within species, using 21 years of data from 46 common passerines across 80 Dutch sites. We show that body condition decreases with warmer spring/early summer temperatures and increases with higher humidity, but other climate variables do not show consistent trends across species. In the future, body condition is projected to decrease by 2050, mainly driven by temperature effects. Strikingly, populations of the same species generally responded just as differently as populations of different species implying that a single species signal is not meaningful. Consequently, species-level traits did not explain interspecific differences in sensitivities, rather population-level traits were more important. The absence of a clear species signal in body condition responses implies that generalisation and identifying species for conservation prioritisation is problematic, which sharply contrasts conclusions of previous studies on the climate sensitivity of phenology. PMID:29466460

Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

PubMed Central

Hussain, S. Monira; Oldenburg, Brian; Zoungas, Sophia; Tonkin, Andrew M.

2013-01-01

Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk. PMID:24163770

Drinking water studies: a review on heavy metal, application of biomarker and health risk assessment (a special focus in Malaysia).

PubMed

Ab Razak, Nurul Hafiza; Praveena, Sarva Mangala; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin; Hashim, Zailina

2015-12-01

Malaysia has abundant sources of drinking water from river and groundwater. However, rapid developments have deteriorated quality of drinking water sources in Malaysia. Heavy metal studies in terms of drinking water, applications of health risk assessment and bio-monitoring in Malaysia were reviewed from 2003 to 2013. Studies on heavy metal in drinking water showed the levels are under the permissible limits as suggested by World Health Organization and Malaysian Ministry of Health. Future studies on the applications of health risk assessment are crucial in order to understand the risk of heavy metal exposure through drinking water to Malaysian population. Among the biomarkers that have been reviewed, toenail is the most useful tool to evaluate body burden of heavy metal. Toenails are easy to collect, store, transport and analysed. This review will give a clear guidance for future studies of Malaysian drinking water. In this way, it will help risk managers to minimize the exposure at optimum level as well as the government to formulate policies in safe guarding the population. Copyright © 2015 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Argentine Population Genetic Structure: Large Variance in Amerindian Contribution

PubMed Central

Seldin, Michael F.; Tian, Chao; Shigeta, Russell; Scherbarth, Hugo R.; Silva, Gabriel; Belmont, John W.; Kittles, Rick; Gamron, Susana; Allevi, Alberto; Palatnik, Simon A.; Alvarellos, Alejandro; Paira, Sergio; Caprarulo, Cesar; Guillerón, Carolina; Catoggio, Luis J.; Prigione, Cristina; Berbotto, Guillermo A.; García, Mercedes A.; Perandones, Carlos E.; Pons-Estel, Bernardo A.; Alarcon-Riquelme, Marta E.

2011-01-01

Argentine population genetic structure was examined using a set of 78 ancestry informative markers (AIMs) to assess the contributions of European, Amerindian, and African ancestry in 94 individuals members of this population. Using the Bayesian clustering algorithm STRUCTURE, the mean European contribution was 78%, the Amerindian contribution was 19.4%, and the African contribution was 2.5%. Similar results were found using weighted least mean square method: European, 80.2%; Amerindian, 18.1%; and African, 1.7%. Consistent with previous studies the current results showed very few individuals (four of 94) with greater than 10% African admixture. Notably, when individual admixture was examined, the Amerindian and European admixture showed a very large variance and individual Amerindian contribution ranged from 1.5 to 84.5% in the 94 individual Argentine subjects. These results indicate that admixture must be considered when clinical epidemiology or case control genetic analyses are studied in this population. Moreover, the current study provides a set of informative SNPs that can be used to ascertain or control for this potentially hidden stratification. In addition, the large variance in admixture proportions in individual Argentine subjects shown by this study suggests that this population is appropriate for future admixture mapping studies. PMID:17177183

Transmission-blocking interventions eliminate malaria from laboratory populations

PubMed Central

Blagborough, A. M.; Churcher, T. S.; Upton, L. M.; Ghani, A. C.; Gething, P. W.; Sinden, R. E.

2013-01-01

Transmission-blocking interventions aim to reduce the prevalence of infection in endemic communities by targeting Plasmodium within the insect host. Although many studies have reported the successful reduction of infection in the mosquito vector, direct evidence that there is an onward reduction in infection in the vertebrate host is lacking. Here we report the first experiments using a population, transmission-based study of Plasmodium berghei in Anopheles stephensi to assess the impact of a transmission-blocking drug upon both insect and host populations over multiple transmission cycles. We demonstrate that the selected transmission-blocking intervention, which inhibits transmission from vertebrate to insect by only 32%, reduces the basic reproduction number of the parasite by 20%, and in our model system can eliminate Plasmodium from mosquito and mouse populations at low transmission intensities. These findings clearly demonstrate that use of transmission-blocking interventions alone can eliminate Plasmodium from a vertebrate population, and have significant implications for the future design and implementation of transmission-blocking interventions within the field. PMID:23652000

The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya;

Incorporating Experiential Learning Techniques to Improve Self-Efficacy in Clinical Special Care Dentistry Education.

PubMed

Watters, Amber L; Stabulas-Savage, Jeanine; Toppin, James D; Janal, Malvin N; Robbins, Miriam R

2015-09-01

The New York University College of Dentistry has introduced a clinical rotation for fourth-year dental students that focuses on treating people with special health care needs (PSN). The aim of this study was to investigate the hypothesis that clinical experience in treating patients with special health care needs during predoctoral education is associated with increased self-assessed student ability and comfort and therefore self-efficacy. The study also investigated whether other characteristics, such as prior personal or volunteer experience with this population, service-mindedness, and/or the inclination to treat underserved populations, were associated with comfort in treating PSN. A survey was used to assess changes in students' perceived knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes regarding treating PSN before and after the clinical experience for July 2012-June 2013. The survey included questions about students' service-mindedness, comfort, perceptions of abilities of PSN and educational importance of learning to treat PSN, desire for clinical experience, and future intent or interest in treating PSN. Out of 364 students invited to participate, 127 surveys were returned, for a response rate of 34.9%. The results showed statistically significant increases on six items following training: impressions about the importance of oral health among PSN, comfort in treating people with cognitive disabilities and with medical complexities, intent to treat PSN in future practice, interest in including PSN in postgraduate training, and belief that PSN could be treated in the private practice setting. These students reported preferring to learn in the clinical setting over didactic instruction. This clinical experience was associated with improved self-efficacy in treating PSN and increased intentions to treat this population in future practice. Improvements were particularly evident among those with the least prior experience with PSN and were independent of other aspects of the students' past experience, future goals, or personality characteristics.

Global implementation of two shared socioeconomic pathways for future sanitation and wastewater flows.

PubMed

van Puijenbroek, P J T M; Bouwman, A F; Beusen, A H W; Lucas, P L

2015-01-01

Households are an important source of nutrient loading to surface water. Sewage systems without or with only primary wastewater treatment are major polluters of surface water. Future emission levels will depend on population growth, urbanisation, increases in income and investments in sanitation, sewage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This study presents the results for two possible shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). SSP1 is a scenario that includes improvement of wastewater treatment and SSP3 does not include such improvement, with fewer investments and a higher population growth. The main drivers for the nutrient emission model are population growth, income growth and urbanisation. Under the SSP1 scenario, 5.7 billion people will be connected to a sewage system and for SSP3 this is 5 billion. Nitrogen and phosphorus emissions increase by about 70% under both SSP scenarios, with the largest increase in SSP1. South Asia and Africa have the largest emission increases, in the developed countries decrease the nutrient emissions. The higher emission level poses a risk to ecosystem services.

New parsimonious simulation methods and tools to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations

PubMed Central

Antle, John M.; Stoorvogel, Jetse J.; Valdivia, Roberto O.

2014-01-01

This article presents conceptual and empirical foundations for new parsimonious simulation models that are being used to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations. The conceptual framework integrates key features of the biophysical and economic processes on which the farming systems are based. The approach represents a methodological advance by coupling important behavioural processes, for example, self-selection in adaptive responses to technological and environmental change, with aggregate processes, such as changes in market supply and demand conditions or environmental conditions as climate. Suitable biophysical and economic data are a critical limiting factor in modelling these complex systems, particularly for the characterization of out-of-sample counterfactuals in ex ante analyses. Parsimonious, population-based simulation methods are described that exploit available observational, experimental, modelled and expert data. The analysis makes use of a new scenario design concept called representative agricultural pathways. A case study illustrates how these methods can be used to assess food and environmental security. The concluding section addresses generalizations of parametric forms and linkages of regional models to global models. PMID:24535388

New parsimonious simulation methods and tools to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations.

PubMed

Antle, John M; Stoorvogel, Jetse J; Valdivia, Roberto O

2014-04-05

This article presents conceptual and empirical foundations for new parsimonious simulation models that are being used to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations. The conceptual framework integrates key features of the biophysical and economic processes on which the farming systems are based. The approach represents a methodological advance by coupling important behavioural processes, for example, self-selection in adaptive responses to technological and environmental change, with aggregate processes, such as changes in market supply and demand conditions or environmental conditions as climate. Suitable biophysical and economic data are a critical limiting factor in modelling these complex systems, particularly for the characterization of out-of-sample counterfactuals in ex ante analyses. Parsimonious, population-based simulation methods are described that exploit available observational, experimental, modelled and expert data. The analysis makes use of a new scenario design concept called representative agricultural pathways. A case study illustrates how these methods can be used to assess food and environmental security. The concluding section addresses generalizations of parametric forms and linkages of regional models to global models.

Population growth rate and energy consumption correlations: Implications for the future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheffield, J.

1998-01-01

The fertility rate for women and the related population growth rate, for numerous developing (transitional) countries, show a downward trend with increasing annual per capita energy use. On the assumption that such historic trends will continue, estimates are made for some simple cases of the energy demands required to stabilize the world`s population in the period 2,100 to 2,150. An assessment is then made of how these energy demands might be met, capitalizing as much as possible on the indigenous energy resources for each of the ten major regions of the world: North America, Latin America, Europe OECD, Former Sovietmore » Union and Central and Eastern Europe, China, Pacific OECD, East Asia, South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Consideration is also given to the potential need to limit carbon emissions because of global warming concerns. The study highlights the crucial nature of energy efficiency improvements and the need to utilize all energy sources, if the world is to find a sustainable future with an improved standard of living for the developing world.« less

Population Accessibility to Radiotherapy Services in New South Wales Region of Australia: a methodological contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Nagesh; Wickramasuriya, Rohan; Miller, Andrew; Perez, Pascal

2015-05-01

This paper proposes an integrated modelling process to assess the population accessibility to radiotherapy treatment services in future based on future cancer incidence and road network-based accessibility. Previous research efforts assessed travel distance/time barriers affecting access to cancer treatment services, as well as epidemiological studies that showed that cancer incidence rates vary with population demography. It is established that travel distances to treatment centres and demographic profiles of the accessible regions greatly influence the demand for cancer radiotherapy (RT) services. However, an integrated service planning approach that combines spatially-explicit cancer incidence projections, and the RT services accessibility based on patient road network have never been attempted. This research work presents this novel methodology for the accessibility assessment of RT services and demonstrates its viability by modelling New South Wales (NSW) cancer incidence rates for different age-sex groups based on observed cancer incidence trends; estimating the road network-based access to current NSW treatment centres; and, projecting the demand for RT services in New South Wales, Australia from year 2011 to 2026.

Consumer acceptance and travel behavior : impacts of automated vehicles : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

This study provides a glimpse into the not-too-distant future by asking people in the general population how they would respond to the availability of self-driving vehicles, which might be on Texas roadways within a few years. Some elements of the te...

Evaluation and experimentation with duck management strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Johnson, F.A.

1989-01-01

Our knowledge of the effects of hunting regulations on duck populations has been based largely on retrospective studies of historical data. We have reached the limits of what can be learned in this way. Future knowledge gains will likely come about only through experimentation and adaptive management.

Strategic Issues: Priorities for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alamo Community Coll. District, San Antonio, TX.

Strategic priorities for the Alamo Community College District (ACCD) are identified based on conclusions drawn by the ACCD Community Advisory Council from studies of: (1) Bexar County population characteristics and trends; (2) community economic and social priorities; (3) college enrollment potential; (4) needs and characteristics of the ACCD's…

Nomenclature of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes for Oncorhynchus mykiss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graziano, Sara L.; Brown, K.H.; Nielsen, Jennifer L.

2005-01-01

Congruence of genetic data is critical for comparative and collaborative studies on natural fish populations. A comprehensive list of reported mitochrondrial DNA haplotypes for Oncorhynchus mykiss generated using the S-Phe/P2 primer set is presented as a resource for future investigations of this species.

Time will tell: community acceptability of HIV vaccine research before and after the “Step Study” vaccine discontinuation

PubMed Central

Frew, Paula M; Mulligan, Mark J; Hou, Su-I; Chan, Kayshin; del Rio, Carlos

2010-01-01

Objective This study examines whether men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) and transgender (TG) persons’ attitudes, beliefs, and risk perceptions toward human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine research have been altered as a result of the negative findings from a phase 2B HIV vaccine study. Design We conducted a cross-sectional survey among MSM and TG persons (N = 176) recruited from community settings in Atlanta from 2007 to 2008. The first group was recruited during an active phase 2B HIV vaccine trial in which a candidate vaccine was being evaluated (the “Step Study”), and the second group was recruited after product futility was widely reported in the media. Methods Descriptive statistics, t tests, and chi-square tests were conducted to ascertain differences between the groups, and ordinal logistic regressions examined the influences of the above-mentioned factors on a critical outcome, future HIV vaccine study participation. The ordinal regression outcomes evaluated the influences on disinclination, neutrality, and inclination to study participation. Results Behavioral outcomes such as future recruitment, event attendance, study promotion, and community mobilization did not reveal any differences in participants’ intentions between the groups. However, we observed greater interest in HIV vaccine study screening (t = 1.07, P < 0.05) and enrollment (t = 1.15, P < 0.05) following negative vaccine findings. Means on perceptions, attitudes, and beliefs did not differ between the groups. Before this development, only beliefs exhibited a strong relationship on the enrollment intention (β = 2.166, P = 0.002). However, the effect disappeared following negative trial results, with the positive assessment of the study-site perceptions being the only significant contributing factor on enrollment intentions (β = 1.369, P = 0.011). Conclusion Findings show greater enrollment intention among this population in the wake of negative efficacy findings from the Step Study. The resolve of this community to find an HIV vaccine is evident. Moreover, any exposure to information disseminated in the public arena did not appear to negatively influence the potential for future participation in HIV vaccine studies among this population. The results suggest that subsequent studies testing candidate vaccines could be conducted in this population. PMID:21152413

A continuation of base-line studies for environmentally monitoring Space Transportation Systems (STS) at John F. Kennedy Space Center. Volume 4: Threatened and endangered species of the Kennedy Space Center. Part 1: Marine turtle studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ehrhart, L. M.

1980-01-01

The status of marine turtle populations in the KSC area was studied using data from previous results from ground and aerial surveillance conducted from 1976 to April 1979. During ground surveillance, various data were recorded on emergent turtles such as: species, weight, tag number (if previously tagged), time discovered, activity at discovery and the location of discovery. Observations were also made on nesting and reproductive characteristics, population estimates, immigration and emigration and growth rate of the turtles. Mortality studies were additionally made and autopsies performed on dead turtles found in the area. It is concluded that further mortality documentation should be done just prior to and just after a future space launch operation in order to accurately assess the cause and effect relationship of such a launch on the turtle population.

Smokeless Tobacco Use in the United States Military: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Hunt, Yvonne M.; Augustson, Erik

2012-01-01

Introduction: Smokeless tobacco (ST) use represents an important target for intervention in the U.S. military population because it impairs “military readiness” and harms the health of the military. This paper aims to provide a systematic review of ST studies conducted in the U.S. military population in order to assess the content of existing ST research in this population, provide estimates of prevalence and clinically relevant use patterns, and discuss how these findings might be used to guide future ST research among this population. Methods: We reviewed articles published through December 2010 using PubMed and PsycINFO databases, Google Scholar, and any relevant articles’ reference lists. Inclusion criteria included focus on a U.S. military sample, English language, measured tobacco use, and ST prevalence was reported or could be calculated. To the extent possible, each article was coded for demographics, socioeconomic status, prevalence, amount, frequency, and length of use, and quit intentions/attempts. Results: Thirty-nine articles met criteria for inclusion. Less than half focused primarily on ST use among military personnel. The remaining studies measured ST use in the context of other behaviors. Findings related to clinically relevant behaviors included a need for more cohort and intervention studies, a better understanding of ST use in combination with cigarettes (i.e., concurrent use), and identifying risk factors for ST initiation and use. Discussion: ST use is prevalent among military personnel, as is concurrent use of cigarettes and ST. We provide a number of recommendations to guide future research in this important, yet understudied, area. PMID:22123789

Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

PubMed

Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

2013-09-01

To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

Estimation of Future PM2.5- and Ozone-related Mortality over the Continental United States in a Changing Climate: An application of High-resolution Dynamical Downscaling Technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Jian; Fu, Joshua S.; Huang, Kan

This paper evaluates the PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality at present (2000s) and in the future (2050s) over the continental United States by using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). Atmospheric chemical fields are simulated by WRF/CMAQ (horizontal resolution: 12 × 12km), applying the dynamical downscaling technique from global climate-chemistry models under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCP 8.5). Future air quality results predict that the annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in continental US will decrease nationwide, especially in the eastern US and west coast. However, the ozone concentration is projected to decrease in the Eastern US but increase inmore » the Western US. Future mortality is evaluated under two scenarios (1) holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level and (2) decreasing the future baseline incidence rate but increasing the future population. For PM2.5, the entire continental US presents a decreasing trend of PM2.5-related mortality by the 2050s in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost half of the continental states show a rising tendency of PM2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM2.5-related deaths will both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation shows nation-wide rising tendency in 2050s under both two scenarios, mainly due to the increase of ozone concentration and population in the future. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis shows that the effect of the all causes mortality is much larger than for specific causes. This assessment is the result of the accumulated uncertainty of generating datasets. The uncertainty range of ozone-related all cause premature mortality is narrower than the PM2.5-related all cause mortality, due to its smaller standard deviation of beta parameter.« less

Value of information methods to design a clinical trial in a small population to optimise a health economic utility function.

PubMed

Pearce, Michael; Hee, Siew Wan; Madan, Jason; Posch, Martin; Day, Simon; Miller, Frank; Zohar, Sarah; Stallard, Nigel

2018-02-08

Most confirmatory randomised controlled clinical trials (RCTs) are designed with specified power, usually 80% or 90%, for a hypothesis test conducted at a given significance level, usually 2.5% for a one-sided test. Approval of the experimental treatment by regulatory agencies is then based on the result of such a significance test with other information to balance the risk of adverse events against the benefit of the treatment to future patients. In the setting of a rare disease, recruiting sufficient patients to achieve conventional error rates for clinically reasonable effect sizes may be infeasible, suggesting that the decision-making process should reflect the size of the target population. We considered the use of a decision-theoretic value of information (VOI) method to obtain the optimal sample size and significance level for confirmatory RCTs in a range of settings. We assume the decision maker represents society. For simplicity we assume the primary endpoint to be normally distributed with unknown mean following some normal prior distribution representing information on the anticipated effectiveness of the therapy available before the trial. The method is illustrated by an application in an RCT in haemophilia A. We explicitly specify the utility in terms of improvement in primary outcome and compare this with the costs of treating patients, both financial and in terms of potential harm, during the trial and in the future. The optimal sample size for the clinical trial decreases as the size of the population decreases. For non-zero cost of treating future patients, either monetary or in terms of potential harmful effects, stronger evidence is required for approval as the population size increases, though this is not the case if the costs of treating future patients are ignored. Decision-theoretic VOI methods offer a flexible approach with both type I error rate and power (or equivalently trial sample size) depending on the size of the future population for whom the treatment under investigation is intended. This might be particularly suitable for small populations when there is considerable information about the patient population.

Biofield therapies: helpful or full of hype? A best evidence synthesis.

PubMed

Jain, Shamini; Mills, Paul J

2010-03-01

Biofield therapies (such as Reiki, therapeutic touch, and healing touch) are complementary medicine modalities that remain controversial and are utilized by a significant number of patients, with little information regarding their efficacy. This systematic review examines 66 clinical studies with a variety of biofield therapies in different patient populations. We conducted a quality assessment as well as a best evidence synthesis approach to examine evidence for biofield therapies in relevant outcomes for different clinical populations. Studies overall are of medium quality, and generally meet minimum standards for validity of inferences. Biofield therapies show strong evidence for reducing pain intensity in pain populations, and moderate evidence for reducing pain intensity hospitalized and cancer populations. There is moderate evidence for decreasing negative behavioral symptoms in dementia and moderate evidence for decreasing anxiety for hospitalized populations. There is equivocal evidence for biofield therapies' effects on fatigue and quality of life for cancer patients, as well as for comprehensive pain outcomes and affect in pain patients, and for decreasing anxiety in cardiovascular patients. There is a need for further high-quality studies in this area. Implications and future research directions are discussed.

Population Trends and Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mauldin, W. Parker

1980-01-01

Future trends in population are described as they relate to developed and developing nations. It is suggested that for the next 20 years there will be a decrease in population growth rates for all areas of the world except Africa. (Author/SA)

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

EVA Human Health and Performance Benchmarking Study Overview and Development of a Microgravity Protocol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norcross, Jason; Jarvis, Sarah; Bekdash, Omar; Cupples, Scott; Abercromby, Andrew

2017-01-01

The primary objective of this study is to develop a protocol to reliably characterize human health and performance metrics for individuals working inside various EVA suits under realistic spaceflight conditions. Expected results and methodologies developed during this study will provide the baseline benchmarking data and protocols with which future EVA suits and suit configurations (e.g., varied pressure, mass, center of gravity [CG]) and different test subject populations (e.g., deconditioned crewmembers) may be reliably assessed and compared. Results may also be used, in conjunction with subsequent testing, to inform fitness-for-duty standards, as well as design requirements and operations concepts for future EVA suits and other exploration systems.

Life-history theory and climate change: resolving population and parental investment paradoxes

PubMed Central

Quinlan, Robert

2016-01-01

Population growth in the next half-century is on pace to raise global carbon emissions by half. Carbon emissions are associated with fertility as a by-product of somatic and parental investment, which is predicted to involve time orientation/preference as a mediating psychological mechanism. Here, we draw upon life-history theory (LHT) to investigate associations between future orientation and fertility, and their impacts on carbon emissions. We argue ‘K-strategy’ life history (LH) in high-income countries has resulted in parental investment behaviours involving future orientation that, paradoxically, promote unsustainable carbon emissions, thereby lowering the Earth's K or carrying capacity. Increasing the rate of approach towards this capacity are ‘r-strategy’ LHs in low-income countries that promote population growth. We explore interactions between future orientation and development that might slow the rate of approach towards global K. Examination of 67 000 individuals across 75 countries suggests that future orientation interacts with the relationship between environmental risk and fertility and with development related parental investment, particularly investment in higher education, to slow population growth and mitigate per capita carbon emissions. Results emphasize that LHT will be an important tool in understanding the demographic and consumption patterns that drive anthropogenic climate change. PMID:28018631

Targeting Hispanic populations: future research and prevention strategies.

PubMed Central

Ramirez, A G; McAlister, A; Gallion, K J; Villarreal, R

1995-01-01

Minority populations face a wide variety of economic, institutional, and cultural barriers to health care. These barriers and low levels of education and income pose significant challenges for health professionals in developing cancer research and prevention-control strategies. It is suggested that specific segments of Hispanic populations fit the model of an underdeveloped country in the intermediate stage of epidemiological transition. Since noncommunicable diseases have not yet fully emerged in some of these Hispanic population segments, the opportunity exists to apply primordial prevention strategies. Such campaigns would focus on dissuading members of these populations from adopting negative health behaviors while promoting positive lifestyle choices. Optimal programs would increase cancer screening participation and discourage risk behaviors through community-oriented, population-based interventions. Future directions in prevention and control efforts for minority populations should include expanded health insurance coverage, improved access to health care, greater emphasis on minority recruitment in health care fields, focused epidemiologic and clinical research, and identification and replication of effective components within existing prevention-control programs. PMID:8741800

A Systematic Review of HIV Risk Behaviors and Trauma Among Forced and Unforced Migrant Populations from Low and Middle-Income Countries: State of the Literature and Future Directions.

PubMed

Michalopoulos, Lynn Murphy; Aifah, Angela; El-Bassel, Nabila

2016-02-01

The aim of the current systematic review is to examine the relationship between trauma and HIV risk behaviors among both forced and unforced migrant populations from low and middle income countries (LMIC). We conducted a review of studies published from 1995 to 2014. Data were extracted related to (1) the relationship between trauma and HIV risk behaviors, (2) methodological approach, (3) assessment methods, and (4) differences noted between forced and unforced migrants. A total of 340 records were retrieved with 24 studies meeting inclusion criteria. Our review demonstrated an overall relationship between trauma and HIV risk behaviors among migrant populations in LMIC, specifically with sexual violence and sexual risk behavior. However, findings from 10 studies were not in full support of the relationship. Findings from the review suggest that additional research using more rigorous methods is critically needed to understand the nature of the relationship experienced by this key-affected population.

Characteristics of Hyperacusis in the General Population

PubMed Central

Paulin, Johan; Andersson, Linus; Nordin, Steven

2016-01-01

There is a need for better understanding of various characteristics in hyperacusis in the general population. The objectives of the present study were to investigate individuals in the general population with hyperacusis regarding demographics, lifestyle, perceived general health and hearing ability, hyperacusis-specific characteristics and behavior, and comorbidity. Using data from a large-scale population-based questionnaire study, we investigated individuals with physician-diagnosed (n=66) and self-reported (n=313) hyperacusis in comparison to individuals without hyperacusis (n=2995). High age, female sex, and high education were associated with hyperacusis, and that trying to avoid sound sources, being able to affect the sound environment, and having sough medical attention were common reactions and behaviors. Posttraumatic stress disorder, chronic fatigue syndrome, generalized anxiety disorder, depression, exhaustion, fibromyalgia, irritable bowel syndrome, migraine, hearing impairment, tinnitus, and back/joint/muscle disorders were comorbid with hyperacusis. The results provide ground for future study of these characteristic features being risk factors for development of hyperacusis and/or consequences of hyperacusis. PMID:27569405

Maintaining an outward image: a Korean immigrant's life with type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension.

PubMed

Pistulka, Gina M; Winch, Peter J; Park, Hyunjeong; Han, Hae-Ra; Kim, Miyong T

2012-06-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN) disproportionately affect minority populations in the United States, including Korean American immigrants (KAI). We conducted qualitative interviews with middle-aged KAI in Maryland living with DM and HTN to examine the illness experience to inform future intervention strategies. Study results show that participants utilized strategies to maintain respect and Korean identity, including an image of being healthy and in control of their behavior in the public arena. These strategies included the lack of disclosure of their illness, even to family members, and avoiding outside assistance when engaging in problem solving. Maintaining an outward image of health was a common goal that affected the self-care of KAI in this study, a finding that might prove significant in the management of other chronic illnesses affecting this population. The study findings demonstrate the importance of in-depth understanding of specific populations when treating chronic illness, and caretakers' sensitivity to each population's unique cultural issues regarding identity, image, and disclosure.

[Frailty in Germany: status and perspectives : Results from a workshop of the German Society for Epidemiology].

PubMed

Fuchs, Judith; Scheidt-Nave, Christa; Gaertner, Beate; Dapp, Ulrike; von Renteln-Kruse, Wolfgang; Saum, Kai-Uwe; Thorand, Barbara; Strobl, Ralf; Grill, Eva

2016-12-01

A standardized, valid and comparable operationalization and assessment of frailty in population-based studies is essential in order to describe the prevalence and determinants of frailty in the population. After an introduction to the subject the main goal of a workshop at the 9th annual meeting of the German Society for Epidemiology (DGEpi) was to present approaches and results from four different studies in Germany. The following four population-based studies were used to describe frailty in Germany: the German health interview and examination survey for adults (DEGS1), the epidemiological study on the chances of prevention, early recognition and optimized treatment of chronic diseases in the older population (ESTHER), the cooperative health research in the region Augsburg (KORA Age) study and the longitudinal urban cohort ageing study (LUCAS) in Hamburg. The four studies consistently showed that frailty is widespread in older and oldest-old persons in Germany. It is obvious that frailty represents a relevant concept in Germany even if there is currently no uniform basis for operationalization. Concepts and instruments for the collation of frailty should be included in future population-based studies in order to make a better assessment of older people's health situation and to describe the unused potential for prevention in an aging society.

Wild and aquaculture populations of the eastern oyster compared using microsatellites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlsson, J.; Morrison, C.L.; Reece, K.S.

2006-01-01

Five new microsatellite markers were developed for the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), and allelic variability was compared between a wild Chesapeake Bay population (James River) and a hatchery strain (DEBY???). All loci amplified readily and demonstrated allelic variability with the number of alleles ranging from 16 to 36 in the wild population and from 11 to 19 in the DEBY??? strain. Average observed and expected heterozygosities were estimated at 0.66 and 0.80 in the hatchery sample. The corresponding estimates were 0.91 and 0.75 in the wild sample. Results indicated lower genetic variability in the DEBY??? strain and significant genetic differentiation between the wild population and hatchery strain. These microsatellite loci will prove valuable for future population genetic studies and in tracking of hatchery strains used in restoration. ?? The American Genetic Association. 2006. All rights reserved.

The shadow of the future.

PubMed

Caldwell, J C

1984-01-01

This article focuses on the need for care in evaluating current demographic conditions in Australia and planning for the future. After noting that Australia is basically a nation of immigrants, the author reviews the country's demographic history. Comparisons with other countries and explanations for major changes are included. It is suggested that long-term fertility has probably stabilized just below replacement level. The changing composition of the immigrant population is also analyzed. The author accepts official 1983 population projections in which declines in the rate of population growth are predicted through the year 2021, although the actual population is expected to increase. In the last section, effects of this population growth on the environment are considered. It is concluded that there are no economic or environmental factors precluding continued immigration at the rate of 75,000-100,000 people per year.

Current concepts on primary open-angle glaucoma genetics: a contribution to disease pathophysiology and future treatment

PubMed Central

Gemenetzi, M; Yang, Y; Lotery, A J

2012-01-01

Glaucoma is a common, complex, heterogenous disease and it constitutes the major cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is the most common type of glaucoma in all populations. Most of the molecular mechanisms leading to POAG development are still unknown. Gene mutations in various populations have been identified by genetic studies and a genetic basis for glaucoma pathogenesis has been established. Linkage analysis and association studies are genetic approaches in the investigation of the genetic basis of POAG. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are more powerful compared with linkage analysis in discovering genes of small effect that might contribute to the development of the disease. POAG links to at least 20 genetic loci, but only 2 genes identified in these loci, myocilin and optineurin, are considered as well-established glaucoma-causing genes, whereas the role of other loci, genes, and variants implicated in the development of POAG remains controversial. Gene mutations associated with POAG result in retinal ganglion cell death, which is the common outcome of pathogenetic mechanisms in glaucoma. In future, if the sensitivity and specificity of genotyping increases, it may be possible to screen individuals routinely for disease susceptibility. This review is an update on the latest progress of genetic studies associated with POAG. It emphasizes the correlation of recent achievements in genetics with glaucoma pathophysiology, glaucoma treatment perspectives, and the possibility of future prevention of irreversible visual loss caused by the disease. PMID:22173078

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

2012-01-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.

Tick exposure and extreme climate events impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard.

PubMed

Jones, Alice R; Bull, C Michael; Brook, Barry W; Wells, Konstans; Pollock, Kenneth H; Fordham, Damien A

2016-03-01

Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Can We Communicate with Other Generations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mellert, Robert B.

Communicating with future generations is not merely a question of "how" to communicate, but also of "what." Our major moral responsibilities to future generations concern the size of future populations, conservation of nonrenewable resources, diversity of the gene pool, and quality of the environment. To determine our…

A genomic view of the peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Skoglund, Pontus; Reich, David

2016-01-01

Whole-genome studies have documented that most Native American ancestry stems from a single population that diversified within the continent more than twelve thousand years ago. However, this shared ancestry hides a more complex history whereby at least four distinct streams of Eurasian migration have contributed to present-day and prehistoric Native American populations. Whole genome studies enhanced by technological breakthroughs in ancient DNA now provide evidence of a sequence of events involving initial migrations from a structured Northeast Asian source population with differential relatedness to present-day Australasian populations, followed by a divergence into northern and southern Native American lineages. During the Holocene, new migrations from Asia introduced the Saqqaq/Dorset Paleoeskimo population to the North American Arctic ~4,500 years ago, ancestry that is potentially connected with ancestry found in Athabaskan-speakers today. This was then followed by a major new population turnover in the high Arctic involving Thule-related peoples who are the ancestors of present-day Inuit. We highlight several open questions that could be addressed through future genomic research. PMID:27507099

Estimating species-specific suvival and movement when species identification is uncertain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, J.P.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

2007-01-01

Incorporating uncertainty in the investigation of ecological studies has been the topic of an increasing body of research. In particular, mark?recapture methodology has shown that incorporating uncertainty in the probability of detecting individuals in populations enables accurate estimation of population-level processes such as survival, reproduction, and dispersal. Recent advances in mark?recapture methodology have included estimating population-level processes for biologically important groups despite the misassignment of individuals to those groups. Examples include estimating rates of apparent survival despite less than perfect accuracy when identifying individuals to gender or breeding state. Here we introduce a method for estimating apparent survival and dispersal in species that co-occur but that are difficult to distinguish. We use data from co-occurring populations of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and montane voles (M. montanus) in addition to simulated data to show that ignoring species uncertainty can lead to biased estimates of population processes. The incorporation of species uncertainty in mark?recapture studies should aid future research investigating ecological concepts such as interspecific competition, niche differentiation, and spatial population dynamics in sibling species.

Population structure and genetic diversity of the giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla: Myrmecophagidae, Pilosa) in Brazil.

PubMed

Clozato, Camila L; Miranda, Flávia R; Lara-Ruiz, Paula; Collevatti, Rosane G; Santos, Fabrício R

2017-01-01

The giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla, Pilosa, Linnaeus 1758) belongs to the mammalian order Pilosa and presents a large distribution along South America, occupying a great variety of habitats. It is listed in the IUCN Red List of threatened species as Vulnerable. Despite threatened, there is a lack of studies regarding its genetic variability. The aim of this study was to examine the genetic diversity and patterns of genetic structure within remaining populations. We analyzed 77 individuals from seven different populations distributed in four biomes across Brazil: Cerrado, Pantanal, Atlantic Forest and Amazon Forest. We sequenced two mitochondrial markers (control region and Cyt-b) and two nuclear markers (AMELY and RAG2). We found high genetic diversity within subpopulations from National Parks of Serra da Canastra and Emas, both within the Cerrado biome, with signs of population expansion. Besides, we found a notable population structure between populations from the Cerrado/Pantanal and Amazon Forest biomes. This data is a major contribution to the knowledge of the evolutionary history of the species and to future management actions concerning its conservation.

Generalizing the Network Scale-Up Method: A New Estimator for the Size of Hidden Populations*

PubMed Central

Feehan, Dennis M.; Salganik, Matthew J.

2018-01-01

The network scale-up method enables researchers to estimate the size of hidden populations, such as drug injectors and sex workers, using sampled social network data. The basic scale-up estimator offers advantages over other size estimation techniques, but it depends on problematic modeling assumptions. We propose a new generalized scale-up estimator that can be used in settings with non-random social mixing and imperfect awareness about membership in the hidden population. Further, the new estimator can be used when data are collected via complex sample designs and from incomplete sampling frames. However, the generalized scale-up estimator also requires data from two samples: one from the frame population and one from the hidden population. In some situations these data from the hidden population can be collected by adding a small number of questions to already planned studies. For other situations, we develop interpretable adjustment factors that can be applied to the basic scale-up estimator. We conclude with practical recommendations for the design and analysis of future studies. PMID:29375167

A genomic view of the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Skoglund, Pontus; Reich, David

2016-12-01

Whole-genome studies have documented that most Native American ancestry stems from a single population that diversified within the continent more than twelve thousand years ago. However, this shared ancestry hides a more complex history whereby at least four distinct streams of Eurasian migration have contributed to present-day and prehistoric Native American populations. Whole genome studies enhanced by technological breakthroughs in ancient DNA now provide evidence of a sequence of events involving initial migrations from a structured Northeast Asian source population with differential relatedness to present-day Australasian populations, followed by a divergence into northern and southern Native American lineages. During the Holocene, new migrations from Asia introduced the Saqqaq/Dorset Paleoeskimo population to the North American Arctic ∼4500 years ago, ancestry that is potentially connected with ancestry found in Athabaskan-speakers today. This was then followed by a major new population turnover in the high Arctic involving Thule-related peoples who are the ancestors of present-day Inuit. We highlight several open questions that could be addressed through future genomic research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parental influences on 7-9 year olds' physical activity: a conceptual model.

PubMed

Leary, Janie M; Lilly, Christa L; Dino, Geri; Loprinzi, Paul D; Cottrell, Lesley

2013-05-01

Models characterizing parental influence on child and adolescent physical activity (PA) over time are limited. Preschool and Adolescent Models (PM and AM) of PA are available leaving the need to focus on elementary-aged children. We tested current models (PM and AM) with a sample of 7-9 year-olds, and then developed a model appropriate to this specific target population. Parent-child dyads completed questionnaires in 2010-2011. All models were assessed using path analysis and model fit indices. For adequate power, 90 families were needed, with 174 dyads participating. PM and AM exhibited poor fit when applied to the study population. A gender-specific model was developed and demonstrated acceptable fit. To develop an acceptable model for this population, constructs from both the PM (i.e. parental perception of child competency) and AM (i.e., child-reported self-efficacy) were used. For boys, self-efficacy was a strong predictor of PA, which was influenced by various parental variables. For girls, parental PA demonstrated the greatest strength of association with child PA. This new model can be used to promote PA and guide future research/interventions. Future studies, particularly longitudinal designs, are needed to confirm the utility of this model as a bridge between currently available models. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What’s New in Addiction Prevention in Young People: A Literature Review of the Last Years of Research

PubMed Central

Kempf, Cédric; Llorca, Pierre-Michel; Pizon, Frank; Brousse, Georges; Flaudias, Valentin

2017-01-01

Rationale: Addiction prevention is a major public health problem, particularly concerning young people. Despite the consensus that primary prevention is essential, the evaluation of its impact is questioned. Objective: The objective of this paper is to assess the latest knowledge of addiction prevention programs for young people. Method: Review a collection of research articles using a keyword-based search on three databases: Pubmed, Eric, and PsycInfo. The research was carried out using three groups of keywords and the eligibility study was completed using two criteria: articles published between 2010 and 2017, and articles in refereed journals. Results: Of a total of 13,720 articles in the three databases, 32 studies were included in the review and listed in a grid with five themes: authors, type of population, total population, addictive behavior, and results. Four categories were created based on the objective of the studies: the evaluation of prevention strategies, the study of risk factors for consumption, the prevalence study and other subjects studied. The analysis of the corpus was used to establish a list of risk factors to be taken into consideration in future interventions and research. A list of key elements for performing effective interventions and future research is also proposed. Conclusion: The understanding of the prevention strategies implementation process is discussed as a central element for future research, which will combine stakeholders and researchers. The complexity of the situations and the multifactorial aspects of addiction prevention in young people require a multidisciplinary approach involving the various stakeholders and researchers. PMID:28729846

Plant-herbivore interactions along elevational gradient: Comparison of field and common garden data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rokaya, Maan Bahadur; Dostálek, Tomáš; Münzbergová, Zuzana

2016-11-01

In response to climate change, various organisms tend to migrate to higher elevations and latitudes. Unequal migration rates of plants and animals are expected to result in changes in the type and intensity of their interactions such as plant-herbivore interactions. In the present study, we studied the extent of herbivore damage in Salvia nubicola along an elevational gradient in Manang, central Nepal. A common garden experiment was also carried out by sowing seeds collected from different populations along the elevational gradient. As expected, the extent of herbivore damage in the field was significantly lower at higher elevations, and it increased with the population size and at sites without shrubs. In the common garden experiment, herbivore damage was higher in plants originating from lower elevations and from more open habitats. While higher herbivore pressure in the field at lower elevations may suggest that plants will be better protected against herbivores at lower elevations, the common garden study demonstrated the opposite. A possible explanation could be that plants from higher elevations have to adapt to extreme conditions, and lower palatability is a side effect of these adaptations. Thus, S. nubicola in the Himalayan region is likely to survive the expected higher herbivore pressure caused by an upward shift of herbivores under future climate change. Future studies should attempt to elucidate generality of such a conclusion by studying multiple species along similar gradients. Our results from comparison of the field and common garden study suggest that future experiments need to include comparisons in common environments to understand the expected response of plants to changes in herbivore pressure.

Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Allan, Nathan; Servoss, Jeff; Hedwall, Shaula J.; Wooldridge, Brian

2017-01-01

Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises) in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

2013-04-01

Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

Hair as a Biomarker of Long Term Mercury Exposure in Brazilian Amazon: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

de Oliveira Lima, Marcelo

2018-01-01

Many studies have assessed mercury (Hg) exposure in the Amazonian population. This article performs a literature search of the studies that used hair as a biomarker of Hg exposure in the Brazilian Amazonian population. The search covered the period from 1996 to 2016 and included articles which matched the following criteria: (1) articles related to Hg exposure into Brazilian Amazon; (2) articles that used hair as a biomarker of Hg exposure; (3) articles that used analytical tools to measure the Hg content on hair and (4) articles that presented arithmetic mean and/or minimum and maximum values of Hg. 36 studies were selected. The findings show that most of the studies were performed along margins of important rivers, such as Negro, Tapajós and Madeira. All the population presented mean levels of Hg on hair above 6 µg g−1 and general population, adults, not determined and men presented levels of Hg on hair above 10 µg g−1. The results show that most of the studies were performed by Brazilian institutions/researchers and the majority was performed in the State of Pará. The present study identified that Amazonian population has long-term been exposed to Hg. In terms of future perspectives, this study suggests the implementation of a strategic plan for environmental health surveillance in the region in order to promote health and benefit Amazonian population. PMID:29534534

PGG.Population: a database for understanding the genomic diversity and genetic ancestry of human populations.

PubMed

Zhang, Chao; Gao, Yang; Liu, Jiaojiao; Xue, Zhe; Lu, Yan; Deng, Lian; Tian, Lei; Feng, Qidi; Xu, Shuhua

2018-01-04

There are a growing number of studies focusing on delineating genetic variations that are associated with complex human traits and diseases due to recent advances in next-generation sequencing technologies. However, identifying and prioritizing disease-associated causal variants relies on understanding the distribution of genetic variations within and among populations. The PGG.Population database documents 7122 genomes representing 356 global populations from 107 countries and provides essential information for researchers to understand human genomic diversity and genetic ancestry. These data and information can facilitate the design of research studies and the interpretation of results of both evolutionary and medical studies involving human populations. The database is carefully maintained and constantly updated when new data are available. We included miscellaneous functions and a user-friendly graphical interface for visualization of genomic diversity, population relationships (genetic affinity), ancestral makeup, footprints of natural selection, and population history etc. Moreover, PGG.Population provides a useful feature for users to analyze data and visualize results in a dynamic style via online illustration. The long-term ambition of the PGG.Population, together with the joint efforts from other researchers who contribute their data to our database, is to create a comprehensive depository of geographic and ethnic variation of human genome, as well as a platform bringing influence on future practitioners of medicine and clinical investigators. PGG.Population is available at https://www.pggpopulation.org. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Population Estimation Methods for Free-Ranging Dogs: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Belo, Vinícius Silva; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; da Silva, Eduardo Sérgio; Barbosa, David Soeiro; Struchiner, Claudio José

2015-01-01

The understanding of the structure of free-roaming dog populations is of extreme importance for the planning and monitoring of populational control strategies and animal welfare. The methods used to estimate the abundance of this group of dogs are more complex than the ones used with domiciled owned dogs. In this systematic review, we analyze the techniques and the results obtained in studies that seek to estimate the size of free-ranging dog populations. Twenty-six studies were reviewed regarding the quality of execution and their capacity to generate valid estimates. Seven of the eight publications that take a simple count of the animal population did not consider the different probabilities of animal detection; only one study used methods based on distances; twelve relied on capture-recapture models for closed populations without considering heterogeneities in capture probabilities; six studies applied their own methods with different potential and limitations. Potential sources of bias in the studies were related to the inadequate description or implementation of animal capturing or viewing procedures and to inadequacies in the identification and registration of dogs. Thus, there was a predominance of estimates with low validity. Abundance and density estimates carried high variability, and all studies identified a greater number of male dogs. We point to enhancements necessary for the implementation of future studies and to potential updates and revisions to the recommendations of the World Health Organization with respect to the estimation of free-ranging dog populations.

Strong fluctuations in aboveground population size do not limit genetic diversity in populations of an endangered biennial species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Zuzana; Šurinová, Maria; Husáková, Iveta; Brabec, Jiří

2018-04-26

Assessing genetic diversity within populations of rare species and understanding its determinants are crucial for effective species protection. While a lot is known about the relationships between genetic diversity, fitness, and current population size, very few studies explored the effects of past population size. Knowledge of past population size may, however, improve our ability to predict future population fates. We studied Gentianella praecox subsp. bohemica, a biennial species with extensive seed bank. We tested the effect of current, past minimal and maximal population size, and harmonic mean of population sizes within the last 15 years on genetic diversity and fitness. Maximum population size over the last 15 years was the best predictor of expected heterozygosity of the populations and was significantly related to current population size and management. Plant fitness was significantly related to current as well as maximum population size and expected heterozygosity. The results suggested that information on past population size may improve our understanding of contemporary genetic diversity across populations. They demonstrated that despite the strong fluctuations in population size, large reductions in population size do not result in immediate loss of genetic diversity and reduction of fitness within the populations. This is likely due to the seed bank of the species serving as reservoir of the genetic diversity of the populations. From a conservation point of view, this suggests that the restoration of small populations of short-lived species with permanent seed bank is possible as these populations may still be genetically diverse.

Risk and the physics of clinical prediction.

PubMed

McEvoy, John W; Diamond, George A; Detrano, Robert C; Kaul, Sanjay; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S; Jones, Steven R

2014-04-15

The current paradigm of primary prevention in cardiology uses traditional risk factors to estimate future cardiovascular risk. These risk estimates are based on prediction models derived from prospective cohort studies and are incorporated into guideline-based initiation algorithms for commonly used preventive pharmacologic treatments, such as aspirin and statins. However, risk estimates are more accurate for populations of similar patients than they are for any individual patient. It may be hazardous to presume that the point estimate of risk derived from a population model represents the most accurate estimate for a given patient. In this review, we exploit principles derived from physics as a metaphor for the distinction between predictions regarding populations versus patients. We identify the following: (1) predictions of risk are accurate at the level of populations but do not translate directly to patients, (2) perfect accuracy of individual risk estimation is unobtainable even with the addition of multiple novel risk factors, and (3) direct measurement of subclinical disease (screening) affords far greater certainty regarding the personalized treatment of patients, whereas risk estimates often remain uncertain for patients. In conclusion, shifting our focus from prediction of events to detection of disease could improve personalized decision-making and outcomes. We also discuss innovative future strategies for risk estimation and treatment allocation in preventive cardiology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a pioneer annual plant endemic to mobile sand dunes, in response to global climate change.

PubMed

Qian, Chaoju; Yin, Hengxia; Shi, Yong; Zhao, Jiecai; Yin, Chengliang; Luo, Wanyin; Dong, Zhibao; Chen, Guoxiong; Yan, Xia; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Ma, Xiao-Fei

2016-05-23

Climate change plays an important role in the transition of ecosystems. Stratigraphic investigations have suggested that the Asian interior experienced frequent transitions between grassland and desert ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change. Using maternally and bi-parentally inherited markers, we investigated the population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), an annual pioneer plant endemic to mobile sand dunes. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that A. squarrosum could originate from Gurbantunggut desert since ~1.6 Ma, and subsequently underwent three waves of colonisation into other deserts and sandy lands corresponding to several glaciations. The rapid population expansion and distribution range shifts of A. squarrosum from monsoonal climate zones suggested that the development of the monsoonal climate significantly enhanced the population growth and gene flow of A. squarrosum. These data also suggested that desertification of the fragile grassland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was more ancient than previously suggested and will be aggravated under global warming in the future. This study provides new molecular phylogeographic insights into how pioneer annual plant species in desert ecosystems respond to global climate change, and facilitates evaluation of the ecological potential and genetic resources of future crops for non-arable dry lands to mitigate climate change.

Population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a pioneer annual plant endemic to mobile sand dunes, in response to global climate change

PubMed Central

Qian, Chaoju; Yin, Hengxia; Shi, Yong; Zhao, Jiecai; Yin, Chengliang; Luo, Wanyin; Dong, Zhibao; Chen, Guoxiong; Yan, Xia; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Ma, Xiao-Fei

2016-01-01

Climate change plays an important role in the transition of ecosystems. Stratigraphic investigations have suggested that the Asian interior experienced frequent transitions between grassland and desert ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change. Using maternally and bi-parentally inherited markers, we investigated the population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), an annual pioneer plant endemic to mobile sand dunes. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that A. squarrosum could originate from Gurbantunggut desert since ~1.6 Ma, and subsequently underwent three waves of colonisation into other deserts and sandy lands corresponding to several glaciations. The rapid population expansion and distribution range shifts of A. squarrosum from monsoonal climate zones suggested that the development of the monsoonal climate significantly enhanced the population growth and gene flow of A. squarrosum. These data also suggested that desertification of the fragile grassland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was more ancient than previously suggested and will be aggravated under global warming in the future. This study provides new molecular phylogeographic insights into how pioneer annual plant species in desert ecosystems respond to global climate change, and facilitates evaluation of the ecological potential and genetic resources of future crops for non-arable dry lands to mitigate climate change. PMID:27210568

Leader Behavior of Head Nurses through the Perceptions of Self and Others.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-01-01

studies ......... 17 III. Methodology .. ....... ...... ......................... 25 Population and sample ........ .*... ............ . 25 Procedures...60....*.* Implications for future rsearch ............. 62 Implications for nursing comaunity...*................. 63 *.......****.*** 75 Vi List...able to distinguish the personality traits of leaders from the personality traits of non -leaders. The traits of leaders, she contends, are communication

IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE POCONO CREEK WATERSHED: A MODEL STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

The Pocono Creek watershed located in Monroe County, PA, is threatened by high population growth and urbanization. Of concern specifically is the potential impact of future developments in the watershed on the reduction of base flow and the consequent risk of degradation of wild ...

Regional Supply and Demand for Library Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foust, James D.; Hughes, Warren R.

This study contains an inventory of Indiana's present library facilities together with projections of the need for future library resources based on the population projections. To facilitate presentation and analysis of the data in this report, 14 state planning regions were used. The relevant geographic regions section defines Indiana's economic…

General Economic and Demographic Background and Projections for Indiana Library Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foust, James D.; Tower, Carl B.

Before future library needs can be estimated, economic and demographic variables that influence the demand for library services must be projected and estimating equations relating library needs to economic and demographic parameters developed. This study considers the size, location and age-sex characteristics of Indiana's current population and…

The genetic architecture of coronary artery disease: current knowledge and future opportunities

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent Findings Large-scale studies in human populations, coupled with rapid advances in genetic technologies over the last decade, have clearly established the association of common genetic variation with risk of CAD. However, the effect sizes of the susceptibility alleles are for the most part mod...

Skiing trends

Treesearch

Charles R. Goeldner; Stacy Standley

1980-01-01

A brief historical overview of skiing is presented, followed by a review of factors such as energy, population trends, income, sex, occupation and attitudes which affect the future of skiing. A. C. Neilson's Sports Participation Surveys show that skiing is the second fastest growing sport in the country. Skiing Magazine's study indicates there are...

Smoking Media Literacy in Vietnamese Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Page, Randy M.; Huong, Nguyen T.; Chi, Hoang K.; Tien, Truong Q.

2011-01-01

Background: Smoking media literacy (SML) has been found to be independently associated with reduced current smoking and reduced susceptibility to future smoking in a sample of American adolescents, but not in other populations of adolescents. Thus, the purpose of this study was to assess SML in Vietnamese adolescents and to determine the…

What's so special about chicken immunology?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

What’s so special about chickens? Firstly, chickens are not only an invaluable model for studying immunology, they also provide the world’s main source of meat and will be a key protein source needed to feed the growing human population into the future. Poultry meat production is highly efficient ...

76 FR 31590 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-01

... proposed research programs are intended to increase knowledge of the species and to help guide management... management efforts, and to determine what salmonid life stages suffer the lowest survival and should be a focus of future management practices. Study 1 is a summer/fall juvenile salmonid population abundance...

Water dynamics and population pressure in the Nepalese Himalayas.

PubMed

Schreier, H; Shah, P B

1996-10-01

The authors investigate the impact of water shortages, especially water for irrigation, on development in Nepal. "The problems associated with hydropower development will be illustrated by using the Kulekhani watershed project as a case study." The possible future effects on food supplies and health are discussed. excerpt

Dietary nitrate and cardiovascular health

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahluwalia, A.; Gladwin, M.T.; Harman, Jane L.; Ward, M.H.; Nolan, Bernard T.

2014-01-01

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened this workshop to discuss the results of recent research on the effects of inorganic nitrate and nitrite on the cardiovascular system, possible long term effects of these compounds in the diet and drinking water, and future research needs including population-wide effects examined through epidemiological studies.

Earth Matters: Studies for Our Global Future. 2nd Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wasserman, Pamela, Ed.

This teacher's guide helps students explore the connection between human population growth and the well-being of the planet. Twelve readings and 34 activities introduce high school students to global society and environmental issues such as climate change, biodiversity loss, gender equality, economics, poverty, energy, wildlife endangerment, waste…

Review: An urgent need for research on factors impacting adherence to and retention in care among HIV-positive youth and adolescents from key populations

PubMed Central

Lall, Priya; Lim, Sin How; Khairuddin, Norliana; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba

2015-01-01

Introduction The 50% increase in HIV-related deaths in youth and adolescents (aged 10–24) from 2005 to 2012 highlights the need to improve HIV treatment and care in this population, including treatment adherence and retention. Youth and adolescents from key populations or young key populations (YKP) in particular are highly stigmatized and may face additional barrier(s) in adhering to HIV treatment and services. We reviewed the current knowledge on treatment adherence and retention in HIV care among YKP to identify gaps in the literature and suggest future directions to improve HIV care for YKP. Methods We conducted a comprehensive literature search for YKP and their adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and retention in HIV care on PsycInfo (Ovid), PubMed and Google Scholar using combinations of the keywords HIV/AIDS, ART, adolescents, young adults, adherence (or compliance), retention, men who have sex with men, transgender, injection drug users, people who inject drugs and prisoners. We included empirical studies on key populations defined by WHO; included the terms youth and adolescents and/or aged between 10 and 24; examined adherence to or retention in HIV care; and published in English-language journals. All articles were coded using NVivo. Results and discussion The systematic search yielded 10 articles on YKP and 16 articles on behaviourally infected youth and adolescents from 1999 to 2014. We found no studies reporting on youth and adolescents identified as sex workers, transgender people and prisoners. From existing literature, adherence to ART was reported to be influenced by age, access to healthcare, the burden of multiple vulnerabilities, policy involving risk behaviours and mental health. A combination of two or more of these factors negatively impacted adherence to ART among YKP. Collectively, these studies demonstrated that future programmes need to be tailored specifically to YKP to ensure adherence. Conclusions There is an urgent need for more systematic research in YKP. Current limited evidence suggests that healthcare delivery should be tailored to the unique needs of YKP. Thus, research on YKP could be used to inform future interventions to improve access to treatment and management of co-morbidities related to HIV, to ease the transition from paediatric to adult care and to increase uptake of secondary prevention methods. PMID:25724503

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Lawley, Mark A.; Siscovick, David S.; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A.

2016-01-01

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions. PMID:27236380

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Lawley, Mark A; Siscovick, David S; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A

2016-05-26

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions.

Treating ethnic minority adults with anxiety disorders: Current status and future recommendations☆

PubMed Central

Carter, Michele M; Mitchell, Frances E.; Sbrocco, Tracy

2014-01-01

The past three decades have witnessed an increase in the number of empirical investigations examining the phenomenology of anxiety and related conditions. There has also been an increase in efforts to understand differences that may exist between ethnic groups in the expression of the anxiety disorders. In addition, there is now substantial evidence that a variety of treatment approaches (most notably behavioral and cognitive behavioral) are efficacious in remediating anxiety. However, there continues to be comparatively few treatment outcome studies investigating the efficacy of anxiety treatments among minority populations. In this paper, we review the extant treatment outcome research for African American, Hispanic/Latino[a] American, Asian American, and Native Americans suffering with one of the anxiety disorders. We discuss some of the specific problems with the research in this area, and then provide specific recommendations for conducting treatment outcome research with minority populations in the future. PMID:22417877

Identifying potential habitat for the endangered Aleutian shield fern using topographical characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duarte, Adam; Wolcott, Daniel M.; Chow, T. Edwin

2012-01-01

The Aleutian shield fern Polystichum aleuticum is endemic to the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska and is listed as endangered pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Despite numerous efforts to discover new populations of this species, only four known populations are documented to date, and information is needed to prioritize locations for future surveys. Therefore, we incorporated topographical habitat characteristics (elevation, slope, aspect, distance from coastline, and anthropogenic footprint) found at known Aleutian shield fern locations into a Geographical Information System (GIS) model to create a habitat suitability map for the entirety of the Andreaonof Islands. A total of 18 islands contained 489.26 km2 of highly suitable and moderately suitable habitat when weighting each factor equally. This study reports a habitat suitability map for the endangered Aleutian shield fern using topographical characteristics, which can be used to assist current and future recovery efforts for the species.

Research training of students in minority and international settings: lessons learned from cancer epidemiology education in special populations.

PubMed

Soliman, Amr S; Mullan, Patricia B; Chamberlain, Robert M

2010-06-01

This article describes the development and evaluation of an NCI-sponsored short-term summer cancer research education program. The study questions examined: the feasibility of conducting a cancer education program in special populations at multiple US and international field sites for masters students; the merit and worth that students and faculty attribute to the program; and students' scholarly and cancer-related career outcomes. Developing a new curriculum, increasing the pool of mentors, utilizing and increasing the number of field sites, and program dissemination were also evaluated. Evidence of the program's success included students' completion of field experiences at multiple sites and their subsequent 70% project-related publication rate, with 79% of trainees reporting themselves as likely to pursue future cancer-related careers. Evaluation-guided future plans for the program include implementing faculty development to further enhance the program outcomes.

Demography of Immigrant Youth: Past, Present, and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Passel, Jeffrey S.

2011-01-01

Jeffrey Passel surveys demographic trends and projections in the U.S. youth population, with an emphasis on trends among immigrant youth. He traces shifts in the youth population over the past hundred years, examines population projections through 2050, and offers some observations about the likely impact of the immigrant youth population on…

Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

PubMed Central

Guzman Castillo, Maria; Gillespie, Duncan O. S.; Allen, Kirk; Bandosz, Piotr; Schmid, Volker; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions. Methods In scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values. Results In scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030. Conclusions The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented. PMID:24918442

Adiposity and hyperglycaemia in pregnancy and related health outcomes in European ethnic minorities of Asian and African origin: a review

PubMed Central

Jenum, Anne Karen; Sommer, Christine; Sletner, Line; Mørkrid, Kjersti; Bærug, Anne; Mosdøl, Annhild

2013-01-01

Background Ethnic minorities in Europe have high susceptibility to type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and, in some groups, also cardiovascular disease (CVD). Pregnancy can be considered a stress test that predicts future morbidity patterns in women and that affects future health of the child. Objective To review ethnic differences in: 1) adiposity, hyperglycaemia, and pre-eclampsia during pregnancy; 2) future risk in the mother of obesity, T2DM and CVD; and 3) prenatal development and possible influences of maternal obesity, hyperglycaemia, and pre-eclampsia on offspring's future disease risk, as relevant for ethnic minorities in Europe of Asian and African origin. Design Literature review. Results Maternal health among ethnic minorities is still sparsely documented. Higher pre-pregnant body mass index (BMI) is found in women of African and Middle Eastern descent, and lower BMI in women from East and South Asia compared with women from the majority population. Within study populations, risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is considerably higher in many minority groups, particularly South Asians, than in the majority population. This increased risk is apparent at lower BMI and younger ages. Women of African origin have higher risk of pre-eclampsia. A GDM pregnancy implies approximately seven-fold higher risk of T2DM than normal pregnancies, and both GDM and pre-eclampsia increase later risk of CVD. Asian neonates have lower birth weights, and mostly also African neonates. This may translate into increased risks of later obesity, T2DM, and CVD. Foetal overgrowth can promote the same conditions. Breastfeeding represents a possible strategy to reduce risk of T2DM in both the mother and the child. Conclusions Ethnic minority women in Europe with Asian and African origin and their offspring seem to be at increased risk of T2DM and CVD, both currently and in the future. Pregnancy is an important window of opportunity for short and long-term disease prevention. PMID:23467680

Nationwide cohort study of hip fractures: time trends in the incidence rates and projections up to 2035.

PubMed

Chen, I-J; Chiang, C-Y F; Li, Y-H; Chang, C-H; Hu, C-C; Chen, D W; Chang, Y; Yang, W-E; Shih, H-N; Ueng, S W-N; Hsieh, P-H

2015-02-01

A growing elderly population is expected worldwide, and the burden of hip fractures on health care system will continue to increase. By 2035, there will be a 2.7-fold increase in the number of hip fractures in Taiwan. The study provides quantitative basis for the future distribution of medical resources. Hip fractures have long been recognized as a major public health concern. The study aimed to determine time trends in the incidence of hip fractures and to forecast the number of hip fractures expected in Taiwan up to 2035. A nationwide survey was conducted using data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database from 2004 to 2011. A total of 141,397 hip fractures were identified, with a mean of 17,675 fractures/year. Annual incidences of hip fractures were calculated and tested for trends. Projections of the incidence rates of hip fractures and bed days associated with hip fractures were calculated using Poisson regression on the historical incidence rates in combination with population projections from 2012 to 2035. The incidence rates of hip fracture during 2004-2011 were 317 and 211 per 100,000 person-years among women and men, respectively. Over this 8-year period, the age-standardized incidence of hip fracture decreased by 13.4% among women and 12.2% among men. Despite the decline in the age-standardized incidence, the absolute number of hip fractures increased owing to the aging population. The number of hip fractures is expected to increase from 18,338 in 2010 to 50,421 in 2035-a 2.7-fold increase. The number of bed days for 2010 and 2035 was estimated at 161,248 and 501,995, respectively, representing a 3.1-fold increase. The socioeconomic impact of hip fractures will be high in the near future. This study provides a quantitative basis for future policy decisions to serve this need.

Future leisure environments

Treesearch

Elwood L. Shafer; George H. Moeller; Russell E. Getty

1974-01-01

As an aid to policy- and decision-making about future environmental problems, a panel of experts was asked to predict the probabilities of future events associated with natural-resource management, wildland-recreation management, environmental pollution, population-workforce-leisure, and urban environments. Though some of the predictions projected to the year 2050 may...

Market Assessment of Brooke Army Medical Center - A Strategy for Today and the Future

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Marketing Research .......... . . ............ 38 Delphi Study ......... .................... 39 Survey Process ......... ................... 41 Survey...Study Strategic marketing is a balanced mix of marketing information and marketing research which is tailored to the objectives of an insti- tution...marketing information and (b) recommendations which resulted from the marketing research conducted of the beneficiary population (see nos. 13 and 14 above

[Validation of a scale of attitudes towards sexuality in a sample of Puerto Rican elderly].

PubMed

Rodríguez Benítez, Rosa Janet; Rodríguez Gómez, José; Sayers Montalvo, Sean

2010-01-01

The literature indicates that elderly population is at high risk that affects their sexual activity; however, this is not the end of sexuality expression in this population. Elderly (people 65 years and older) who are healthy and active has more opportunities of sexual expression and activity in all forms, (including masturbation, and oral sex), and these activities can continue until 74 years or older. This study tries to explore if the Scale of Attitudes towards Sexuality Behavior in the Elderly develop in Puerto Rico, is a valid and reliable instrument to measure attitudes towards the sexuality in an elderly sample. In addition, the research tries to contribute to the progress and development of instruments that measure, and screen, sexuality aspects and risk behaviors that focus in the elderly population. This may help to promote future studies and the development of preventive programs that help to fulfill specific necessities in elderly. The research subjects consist of a secondary database sample of 265 adults of 65 years or older. The design of this study was an ex post facto type. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and factorial analyses to establish an association between the study variables (i.e., attitudes towards the sexuality and sexuality) using SPSS-X program version 14; also was concluded that the instrument is a valid and reliable (Alpha Cronbach = 0.95), which is considered adequate. It's expected that the scale will be valuable for future research in this area.

Creating the Future of Evidence-Based Nutrition Recommendations: Case Studies from Lipid Research123

PubMed Central

Dwyer, Johanna T; Rubin, Kristin H; Psota, Tricia L; Liska, DeAnn J; Montain, Scott J

2016-01-01

Strategic translational research is designed to address research gaps that answer specific guidance questions. It provides translational value with respect to nutrition guidance and regulatory and public policy. The relevance and the quality of evidence both matter in translational research. For example, design decisions regarding population, intervention, comparator, and outcome criteria affect whether or not high-quality studies are considered relevant to specific guidance questions and are therefore included as evidence within the context of systematic review frameworks used by authoritative food and health organizations. The process used in systematic reviews, developed by the USDA for its Nutrition Evidence Library, is described. An eating pattern and cardiovascular disease (CVD) evidence review is provided as an example, and factors that differentiated the studies considered relevant and included in that evidence base from those that were excluded are noted. Case studies on ω-3 (n–3) fatty acids (FAs) and industrial trans-FAs illustrate key factors vital to relevance and translational impact, including choice of a relevant population (e.g., healthy, at risk, or diseased subjects; general population or high-performance soldiers); dose and form of the intervention (e.g., food or supplement); use of relevant comparators (e.g., technically feasible and realistic); and measures for both exposure and outcomes (e.g., inflammatory markers or CVD endpoints). Specific recommendations are provided to help increase the impact of nutrition research on future dietary guidance, policy, and regulatory issues, particularly in the area of lipids. PMID:27422509

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement: historical perspectives, current evidence, and future directions.

PubMed

Horne, Aaron; Reineck, Elizabeth A; Hasan, Rani K; Resar, Jon R; Chacko, Matthews

2014-10-01

Severe aortic stenosis (AS) results in considerable morbidity and mortality without aortic valve replacement and is expected to increase in prevalence with the aging population. Because AS primarily affects the elderly, many patients with comorbidities are poor candidates for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) and may not be referred. Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has emerged as transformative technology for the management of AS over the past decade. Randomized trials have established the safety and efficacy of TAVR with improved mortality and quality of life compared with medical therapy in inoperable patients, while demonstrating noninferiority and even superiority to SAVR among high-risk operative candidates. However, early studies demonstrated an early penalty of stroke and vascular complications with TAVR as well as increased paravalvular leak as compared with SAVR. Two device platforms have been evaluated and approved for use in the United States: the Edwards SAPIEN and the Medtronic CoreValve. Early studies also suggest cost-effectiveness for TAVR. Ongoing studies are evaluating new iterations of the aforementioned TAVR devices, novel device designs, and applications of TAVR in expanded populations of patients including those with lower risk profiles as well as those with comorbidities that were excluded from early clinical trials. Future improvements in TAVR technology will likely reduce periprocedural and long-term complications. Further studies are needed to confirm device durability over long-term follow-up and explore the applicability of TAVR to broader AS patient populations. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Lifestyle and dietary habits of an obese pregnant cohort.

PubMed

Lindsay, Karen L; Heneghan, Clara; McNulty, Breige; Brennan, Lorraine; McAuliffe, Fionnuala M

2015-01-01

Obese pregnant women are the focus of numerous dietary and lifestyle intervention studies, however there is a paucity of literature examining the habitual dietary and lifestyle habits of this population. This paper aims to assess maternal dietary and lifestyle habits in an obese cohort, in order to identify priority areas to be addressed in future studies and in clinical practice. This prospective observational study recruited 100 pregnant women with a body mass index 30.0-39.9 kg/m(2) from routine antenatal clinics. Dietary intakes were assessed using a 3-day food diary and a structured lifestyle questionnaire assessed physical activity levels, smoking and alcohol habits and wellbeing. Macronutrient intakes as a percentage of total energy were not compliant to healthy eating guidelines with an inadequate intake of carbohydrate and excess intake of saturated fat. Compliance to recommended intakes of calcium, iron, folate and vitamin D was poor from diet alone. The consumption of energy dense food groups high in fat and sugar was greater than for published pregnant populations and the general female non-pregnant population. One-third of women reported engaging in weekly physical activity that would comply with recommendations for pregnant women while 25 % reported low mood status indicating potential depression. High intakes of energy-dense processed foods and poor compliance to micronutrient recommendations are critical dietary issues of concern among obese pregnant women. Low mood is a barrier to motivation for changing behaviour which would also need to be addressed in future lifestyle intervention studies.

Latina food patterns in the United States: a qualitative metasynthesis.

PubMed

Gerchow, Lauren; Tagliaferro, Barbara; Squires, Allison; Nicholson, Joey; Savarimuthu, Stella M; Gutnick, Damara; Jay, Melanie

2014-01-01

Obesity disproportionately affects Latinas living in the United States, and cultural food patterns contribute to this health concern. The aim of this study was to synthesize the qualitative results of research regarding Latina food patterns in order to (a) identify common patterns across Latino culture and within Latino subcultures and (b) inform future research by determining gaps in the literature. A systematic search of three databases produced 13 studies (15 manuscripts) that met the inclusion criteria for review. The Critical Appraisal Skills Program tool and the recommendations of Squires for evaluating translation methods in qualitative research were applied to appraise study quality. Authors coded through directed content analysis and an adaptation of the Joanna Briggs Institute Qualitative Assessment and Review Instrument coding template to extract themes. Coding focused on food patterns, obesity, population breakdown, immigration, acculturation, and barriers and facilitators to healthy eating. Other themes and categories emerged from this process to complement this approach. Major findings included the following: (a) Immigration driven changes in scheduling, food choice, socioeconomic status, and family dynamics shape the complex psychology behind healthy food choices for Latina women; (b) in Latina populations, barriers and facilitators to healthy lifestyle choices around food are complex; and (c) there is a clear need to differentiate Latino populations by country of origin in future qualitative studies on eating behavior. Healthcare providers need to recognize the complex influences behind eating behaviors among immigrant Latinas in order to design effective behavior change and goal-setting programs to support healthy lifestyles.

Fostering Healthy Futures for Teens: Adaptation of an Evidence-Based Program

PubMed Central

Taussig, Heather; Weiler, Lindsey; Rhodes, Tara; Hambrick, Erin; Wertheimer, Robyn; Fireman, Orah; Combs, Melody

2015-01-01

Objective This article describes the process of adapting and implementing a complex, multicomponent intervention for a new population. Specifically, the article delineates the development and implementation of the Fostering Healthy Futures for Teens (FHF-T) program, which is an adaptation and extension of the Fostering Healthy Futures® (FHF) preventive intervention. FHF is a 9-month mentoring and skills group program for 9 to 11 year olds recently placed in foster care. Following the designation of FHF as an evidence-based intervention, there was increasing demand for the program. However, the narrow population for which FHF had demonstrated efficacy limited broader implementation of the existing intervention. FHF-T was designed to extend the reach of the program by adapting the FHF intervention for adolescents in the early years of high school who have a history of out-of-home care. Specifically, this adaptation recognizes key developmental differences between preadolescent and adolescent populations. Method After designing a program model and adapting the program components, the FHF-T mentoring program was implemented with 42 youth over 2 program years. Results Of the teens who were offered the program, 75% chose to enroll, and 88% of those graduated 9 months later. Although the program evidenced high rates of uptake and participant satisfaction, some unexpected challenges were encountered that will need to be addressed in future iterations of the program. Conclusions Too often program adaptations are made without careful consideration of important contextual issues, and too infrequently, these adapted programs are studied. Our process of program adaptation with rigorous measurement of program implementation provides a useful model for other evidence-based programs seeking thoughtful adaptation. PMID:27019678

A Systematic Review of Isometric Lingual Strength-Training Programs in Adults With and Without Dysphagia.

PubMed

McKenna, Victoria S; Zhang, Bin; Haines, Morgan B; Kelchner, Lisa N

2017-05-17

This systematic review summarizes the effects of isometric lingual strength training on lingual strength and swallow function in adult populations. Furthermore, it evaluates the designs of the reviewed studies and identifies areas of future research in isometric lingual strength training for dysphagia remediation. A comprehensive literature search of 3 databases and additional backward citation search identified 10 studies for inclusion in the review. The review reports and discusses the isometric-exercise intervention protocols, pre- and postintervention lingual-pressure data (maximum peak pressures and lingual-palatal pressures during swallowing), and oropharyngeal swallowing measures such as penetration-aspiration scales, oropharyngeal residue and duration, lingual volumes, and quality-of-life assessments. Studies reported gains in maximum peak lingual pressures following isometric lingual strength training for both healthy adults and select groups of individuals with dysphagia. However, due to the variability in study designs, it remains unclear whether strength gains generalize to swallow function. Although isometric lingual strength training is a promising intervention for oropharyngeal dysphagia, the current literature is too variable to confidently report specific therapeutic benefits. Future investigations should target homogenous patient populations and use randomized controlled trials to determine the efficacy of this treatment for individuals with dysphagia.

Allele frequencies of combined DNA index system (CODIS) and non-CODIS short tandem repeat loci in Goiás, Central Brazil.

PubMed

Rodovalho, R G; Santos, G S; Cavalcanti, L M; Moura, B F S M; Rodrigues, E L; Lima, P R; Gigonzac, M A D; Vieira, T C

2015-07-03

In studies of human identification, obtaining a high standard of outcomes and satisfactory conclusions are directly related to the use of highly polymorphic molecular markers. In addition to the combined DNA index system (CODIS) group, it is also important to implement non-CODIS markers into the analysis, as they increase the power of discrimination. During the identification process, it is essential to consider the genetic variation among distinct groups of populations, as the allele frequencies are directly associated with the power of discrimination. However, the population of Goiás, a State located in Central Brazil, is characterized by a highly mixed population due to its diverse ethnic origins. In this study, a survey of the allelic frequencies in the Goiás population was carried out using a molecular assembly composed of 21 autosomal loci both from and external to the CODIS group. The new data, for some of the markers used, were statistically similar to those from previous studies. This consistency means that the use of these markers might serve as a parameter for future population comparisons. The results from these analyses further our knowledge of the study of human identification.

Review of Current Conservation Genetic Analyses of Northeast Pacific Sharks.

PubMed

Larson, Shawn E; Daly-Engel, Toby S; Phillips, Nicole M

Conservation genetics is an applied science that utilizes molecular tools to help solve problems in species conservation and management. It is an interdisciplinary specialty in which scientists apply the study of genetics in conjunction with traditional ecological fieldwork and other techniques to explore molecular variation, population boundaries, and evolutionary relationships with the goal of enabling resource managers to better protect biodiversity and identify unique populations. Several shark species in the northeast Pacific (NEP) have been studied using conservation genetics techniques, which are discussed here. The primary methods employed to study population genetics of sharks have historically been nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial (mt) DNA. These markers have been used to assess genetic diversity, mating systems, parentage, relatedness, and genetically distinct populations to inform management decisions. Novel approaches in conservation genetics, including next-generation DNA and RNA sequencing, environmental DNA (eDNA), and epigenetics are just beginning to be applied to elasmobranch evolution, physiology, and ecology. Here, we review the methods and results of past studies, explore future directions for shark conservation genetics, and discuss the implications of molecular research and techniques for the long-term management of shark populations in the NEP. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gambling Disorder in Veterans: A Review of the Literature and Implications for Future Research.

PubMed

Levy, Lauren; Tracy, J Kathleen

2018-02-09

To review the scientific literature examining gambling behavior in military veterans in order to summarize factors associated with gambling behavior in this population. Database searches were employed to identify articles specifically examining gambling behavior in military veterans. Cumulative search results identified 52 articles (1983-2017) examining gambling behavior in veteran populations. Articles generally fell into one or more of the following categories: prevalence, psychological profiles and psychiatric comorbidities, treatment evaluations, measurement, and genetic contributions to gambling disorder. Results from reviewed articles are presented and implications for future research discussed. Research to date has provided an excellent foundation to inform potential screening, intervention and research activities going forward. The authors suggest that a public health approach to future research endeavors would strengthen the evidence base regarding gambling in veteran populations and better inform strategies for screening, prevention and treatment.

LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer Chyi; Hall, Doyle T.

2013-01-01

LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model) is a three-dimensional orbital debris evolutionary model that is capable of simulating the historical and future debris populations in the near-Earth environment. The historical component in LEGEND adopts a deterministic approach to mimic the known historical populations. Launched rocket bodies, spacecraft, and mission-related debris (rings, bolts, etc.) are added to the simulated environment. Known historical breakup events are reproduced, and fragments down to 1 mm in size are created. The LEGEND future projection component adopts a Monte Carlo approach and uses an innovative pair-wise collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate the future breakups and the growth of the debris populations. This algorithm is based on a new "random sampling in time" approach that preserves characteristics of the traditional approach and captures the rapidly changing nature of the orbital debris environment. LEGEND is a Fortran 90-based numerical simulation program. It operates in a UNIX/Linux environment.

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-06-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals' time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying "I don't know" item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research.

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis

PubMed Central

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-01-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals’ time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying “I don’t know” item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research. PMID:28781381

Genetic variation, population structure and linkage disequilibrium in Switchgrass with ISSR, SCoT and EST-SSR markers.

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Yan, Haidong; Jiang, Xiaomei; Wang, Xiaoli; Huang, Linkai; Xu, Bin; Zhang, Xinquan; Zhang, Lexin

2016-01-01

To evaluate genetic variation, population structure, and the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD), 134 switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) samples were analyzed with 51 markers, including 16 ISSRs, 20 SCoTs, and 15 EST-SSRs. In this study, a high level of genetic variation was observed in the switchgrass samples and they had an average Nei's gene diversity index (H) of 0.311. A total of 793 bands were obtained, of which 708 (89.28 %) were polymorphic. Using a parameter marker index (MI), the efficiency of the three types of markers (ISSR, SCoT, and EST-SSR) in the study were compared and we found that SCoT had a higher marker efficiency than the other two markers. The 134 switchgrass samples could be divided into two sub-populations based on STRUCTURE, UPGMA clustering, and principal coordinate analyses (PCA), and upland and lowland ecotypes could be separated by UPGMA clustering and PCA analyses. Linkage disequilibrium analysis revealed an average r 2 of 0.035 across all 51 markers, indicating a trend of higher LD in sub-population 2 than that in sub-population 1 ( P  < 0.01). The population structure revealed in this study will guide the design of future association studies using these switchgrass samples.

Genetic variation in heat-stress tolerance among South American Drosophila populations.

PubMed

Fallis, Lindsey C; Fanara, Juan Jose; Morgan, Theodore J

2011-10-01

Spatial or temporal differences in environmental variables, such as temperature, are ubiquitous in nature and impose stress on organisms. This is especially true for organisms that are isothermal with the environment, such as insects. Understanding the means by which insects respond to temperature and how they will react to novel changes in environmental temperature is important for understanding the adaptive capacity of populations and to predict future trajectories of evolutionary change. The organismal response to heat has been identified as an important environmental variable for insects that can dramatically influence life history characters and geographic range. In the current study we surveyed the amount of variation in heat tolerance among Drosophila melanogaster populations collected at diverse sites along a latitudinal gradient in Argentina (24°-38°S). This is the first study to quantify heat tolerance in South American populations and our work demonstrates that most of the populations surveyed have abundant within-population phenotypic variation, while still exhibiting significant variation among populations. The one exception was the most heat tolerant population that comes from a climate exhibiting the warmest annual mean temperature. All together our results suggest there is abundant genetic variation for heat-tolerance phenotypes within and among natural populations of Drosophila and this variation has likely been shaped by environmental temperature.

Multidisciplinary population monitoring when demographic data are sparse: a case study of remote trout populations

PubMed Central

Fraser, Dylan J; Calvert, Anna M; Bernatchez, Louis; Coon, Andrew

2013-01-01

The potential of genetic, genomic, and phenotypic metrics for monitoring population trends may be especially high in isolated regions, where traditional demographic monitoring is logistically difficult and only sporadic sampling is possible. This potential, however, is relatively underexplored empirically. Over eleven years, we assessed several such metrics along with traditional ecological knowledge and catch data in a socioeconomically important trout species occupying a large, remote lake. The data revealed largely stable characteristics in two populations over 2–3 generations, but possible contemporary changes in a third population. These potential shifts were suggested by reduced catch rates, reduced body size, and changes in selection implied at one gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphism. A demographic decline in this population, however, was ambiguously supported, based on the apparent lack of temporal change in effective population size, and corresponding traditional knowledge suggesting little change in catch. We illustrate how the pluralistic approach employed has practicality for setting future monitoring efforts of these populations, by guiding monitoring priorities according to the relative merits of different metrics and availability of resources. Our study also considers some advantages and disadvantages to adopting a pluralistic approach to population monitoring where demographic data are not easily obtained. PMID:24455128

The world population explosion: causes, backgrounds and projections for the future

PubMed Central

Van Bavel, J.

2013-01-01

At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the total world population crossed the threshold of 1 billion people for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens sapiens. Since then, growth rates have been increasing exponentially, reaching staggeringly high peaks in the 20th century and slowing down a bit thereafter. Total world population reached 7 billion just after 2010 and is expected to count 9 billion by 2045. This paper first charts the differences in population growth between the world regions. Next, the mechanisms behind unprecedented population growth are explained and plausible scenarios for future developments are discussed. Crucial for the long term trend will be the rate of decline of the number of births per woman, called total fertility. Improvements in education, reproductive health and child survival will be needed to speed up the decline of total fertility, particularly in Africa. But in all scenarios, world population will continue to grow for some time due to population momentum. Finally, the paper outlines the debate about the consequences of the population explosion, involving poverty and food security, the impact on the natural environment, and migration flows. Key words: Fertility, family planning, world population, population growth, demographic transition, urbanization, population momentum, population projections. PMID:24753956

Argentine stem weevil ( Listronotus bonariensis, Coleoptera: Curculionidae) population dynamics in Canterbury, New Zealand dryland pasture.

PubMed

Goldson, S L; Barron, M C; Kean, J M; van Koten, C

2011-06-01

The Argentine stem weevil (Listronotus bonariensis) was an economically important pest in New Zealand pastures until the release of the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae. This contribution uses historical data to investigate the regulation of the pest populations prior to, and somewhat during, the establishment of this parasitoid in dryland Canterbury, New Zealand. Thus, a significant goal of this study is to provide an L. bonariensis population dynamics baseline for any future work that aims to analyse the full effects of M. hyperodae on the weevil, now that equilibrium with the weevil host has been reached.The population dynamics of L. bonariensis, based on a life-table approach, were investigated using data collected regularly for eight years from populations in Canterbury, New Zealand. The key factor affecting end-of-season L. bonariensis density was found to be variation in second generation fourth instar prepupal and pupal mortality. This may have been caused by arrested development and ongoing mortality resulting from the onset of cooler autumnal conditions.A compensatory response was found in recruitment to the second summer weevil generation, whereby the realised fecundity of the emergent first summer generation of weevils was found to be negatively related to the density of adult weevils per ryegrass tiller. This is the first time that this has been found via long-term population analysis of L. bonariensis, although indications of this have been found elsewhere in caging, pot and small plot experiments.In this study, the effect of the parasitoid biocontrol agent Microctonus hyperodae on L. bonariensis population dynamics was unclear, as the analysis covered a period when the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae was introduced and still establishing. It does, however, raise important questions for future analysis in terms of the interaction between parasitism and unrealised fecundity.The results in this contribution also highlighted regional differences. Overwintering mortality of adult weevils in Canterbury was constant between years, whilst earlier studies in the North Island Waikato region indicated this mortality was density dependent. In addition, the availability of tillers in endophyte-free ryegrass pastures in Canterbury had no influence on egg and early-instar larval survival, which contrasts with the finding from endophytic Waikato pastures.

Osteoporosis in older persons: current pharmacotherapy and future directions.

PubMed

Duque, Gustavo

2013-10-01

Osteopororic fractures are highly prevalent in older persons having catastrophic consequences in their quality of life and increasing disability and mortality in this population. The mechanisms of osteoporosis in older persons are unique in terms of cellular changes and response to osteoporosis treatment. Therefore, specifically targeted treatments are required in this particular population. This paper provides an overview on the particular mechanisms of osteoporosis in older persons and the current and future therapeutic strategies to improve bone mass and prevent fractures in this population. Osteoporosis in older persons (especially in the old-old) has a unique pathophysiology that predisposes them to fractures thus having catastrophic consequences. Identification of patients at risk followed by therapies targeted to their cellular changes is pivotal to close the care gap observed in osteoporosis, predominantly in the older population. The treatment of osteoporosis has evolved from daily to yearly dosing thus facilitating compliance and effectiveness. It is expected that future biologically targeted treatments will have a similar separate dosing regime with better anti-fracture efficacy and lower incidence of side effects.

Global Coastal Exposure due to Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points with Multiple Warming Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Sea-level is observed and estimated to continue rising. In the future, the rise could be abrupt and irreversible in century to millennial timescale even if we conduct strong reduction of greenhouse gas emission. Greenland ice sheet and West Antarctic ice sheet are considered as attributable climate systems which would significantly enhance presently-projected sea-level rise by several meters if global mean temperature passes certain "Tipping points" which would exist around +1-5 degree Celsius above present temperature (1980-1999 average). Therefore, vulnerable coastal low-lying area, especially small islands, deltas or poor developing countries, would suffer from semi-permanent inundation and forced to counteract due to the enhanced sea-level rise. This study estimate range of sea-level rise until the year 2300 and 3000 considering excess of tipping points with using multiple levels of temperature scenarios which consist of excess tipping points and non-excess tipping points pathways. We extract state-of-the-art knowledge of tipping elements from paper reviewing to express reasonable relationship between temperature and abruptly-changing sea-level transition across the ages. This study also calculate coastal exposure globally as affected population, area and asset below the estimated sea-level for each countries with overlaying 30 arc-second gridded topography, population distribution and the sea-level. The result indicates which country would be critically affected if we follow overshooting pathways. Furthermore, this study visualize uncertain coastal exposure due to sea-level rise in the future from the multiple warming pathways. This estimation of possible future beyond tipping point would be useful information for decision-makers to establish new planning of defense, migration or mitigation for the future societies.

Simultaneous effects of food limitation and inducible resistance on herbivore population dynamics.

PubMed

Abbott, Karen C; Morris, William F; Gross, Kevin

2008-02-01

Many herbivore populations fluctuate temporally, but the causes of those fluctuations remain unclear. Plant inducible resistance can theoretically cause herbivore population fluctuations, because herbivory may induce plant changes that reduce the survival or reproduction of later-feeding herbivores. Herbivory can also simply reduce the quantity of food available for later feeders and this, too, can cause population fluctuations. Inducible resistance and food limitation often occur simultaneously, yet whether they jointly facilitate or suppress herbivore fluctuations remains largely unexplored. We present models that suggest that food limitation and inducible resistance may have synergistic effects on herbivore population dynamics. The population-level response of the food plant to herbivory and the details of how inducible resistance affects herbivore performance both influence the resulting herbivore dynamics. Our results identify some biological properties of plant-herbivore systems that might determine whether or not cycles occur, and suggest that future empirical and theoretical population dynamics studies should account for the effects of both food limitation and inducible resistance.

Effect of ancient population structure on the degree of polymorphism shared between modern human populations and ancient hominins.

PubMed

Eriksson, Anders; Manica, Andrea

2012-08-28

Recent comparisons between anatomically modern humans and ancient genomes of other hominins have raised the tantalizing, and hotly debated, possibility of hybridization. Although several tests of hybridization have been devised, they all rely on the degree to which different modern populations share genetic polymorphisms with the ancient genomes of other hominins. However, spatial population structure is expected to generate genetic patterns similar to those that might be attributed to hybridization. To investigate this problem, we take Neanderthals as a case study, and build a spatially explicit model of the shared history of anatomically modern humans and this hominin. We show that the excess polymorphism shared between Eurasians and Neanderthals is compatible with scenarios in which no hybridization occurred, and is strongly linked to the strength of population structure in ancient populations. Thus, we recommend caution in inferring admixture from geographic patterns of shared polymorphisms, and argue that future attempts to investigate ancient hybridization between humans and other hominins should explicitly account for population structure.

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient

PubMed Central

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-01-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients. PMID:22588131

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient.

PubMed

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-09-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients.

[Assessing quality of life in an urban population in Chengdu using the SF-12].

PubMed

Li, Ning-xiu; Liu, Dan-ping; Liu, Chao-jie; Ren, Xiao-hui; Gao, Bo

2010-11-01

To assess the health-related quality of life in an urban population in Chengdu China using the SF-12. A random sampling strategy stratified by age and sex was adopted to select the participants in Chengdu. A total of 1365 respondents with an age of older than 18 years completed the interviewer-administered SF-12 survey. The physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component summary measures of the SF-12 were calculated using the standard US scoring method and compared to the urban population norms of Hong Kong and Australia. Similar PCS and MCS scores were obtained for the urban Chengdu population compared to the Hong Kong and Australian population norms, albeit a closer similarity between the Chengdu and Hong Kong populations. The PCS and MCS scores of the SF-12 changed with sex and age. The age- and sex-adjusted PCS and MCS scores of the SF-12 in the urban Chengdu population can serve as a reference for future studies using the SF-12 in China.

How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

2017-04-01

Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water scarcity. At the continental scale, most countries of Africa, the south and west Asia, and the central Europe are suffering from water scarcity. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, we address the question of future dam development and predict the locations of future large dams around the world. The results show that there will be 1,433 large dams built in the future, mainly in the Tibet Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Asia, the East African Plateau and the western part of Africa, the Andes Mountains and the Brazilian Plateau region in South America, the Rocky Mountains in North America, the Alps in Europe, and the Murray-Darling Basin in Oceania. Taking into account of the current situation of global water scarcity, these large dams are most likely to be constructed in countries that have abundant total available water resources or per capita available water resources, no matter whether they are experiencing "economic water scarcity" or have sufficient financial support.

Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

2017-04-01

Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people killed. Approximately two-thirds of European citizens could then be exposed to a weather-related disaster each year, which will bring about huge rises in health costs to society. Future impacts show a prominent spatial gradient towards southern regions, where weather extremes could become the greatest environmental risk factor for people. The projected changes are dominated by global warming, mainly through a rise in heatwaves, but ongoing urbanization, development in hazard-prone areas and ageing population will likely further increase human risk. The results call for immediate action to achieve the Paris goals on climate mitigation and adaptation in order to protect future European generations.

Memory and obesity affect the population dynamics of asexual freshwater planarians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkel, Jörn; Talbot, Jared; Schötz, Eva-Maria

2011-04-01

Asexual reproduction in multicellular organisms is a complex biophysical process that is not yet well understood quantitatively. Here, we report a detailed population study for the asexual freshwater planarian Schmidtea mediterranea, which can reproduce via transverse fission due to a large stem cell contingent. Our long-term observations of isolated non-interacting planarian populations reveal that the characteristic fission waiting time distributions for head and tail fragments differ significantly from each other. The stochastic fission dynamics of tail fragments exhibits non-negligible memory effects, implying that an accurate mathematical description of future data should be based on non-Markovian tree models. By comparing the effective growth of non-interacting planarian populations with those of self-interacting populations, we are able to quantify the influence of interactions between flatworms and physical conditions on the population growth. A surprising result is the non-monotonic relationship between effective population growth rate and nutrient supply: planarians exhibit a tendency to become 'obese' if the feeding frequency exceeds a critical level, resulting in a decreased reproduction activity. This suggests that these flatworms, which possess many genes homologous to those of humans, could become a new model system for studying dietary effects on reproduction and regeneration in multicellular organisms.

The Pediatric Anesthesiology Workforce: Projecting Supply and Trends 2015-2035.

PubMed

Muffly, Matthew K; Singleton, Mark; Agarwal, Rita; Scheinker, David; Miller, Daniel; Muffly, Tyler M; Honkanen, Anita

2018-02-01

A workforce analysis was conducted to predict whether the projected future supply of pediatric anesthesiologists is balanced with the requirements of the inpatient pediatric population. The specific aims of our analysis were to (1) project the number of pediatric anesthesiologists in the future workforce; (2) project pediatric anesthesiologist-to-pediatric population ratios (0-17 years); (3) project the mean number of inpatient pediatric procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist; and (4) evaluate the effect of alternative projections of individual variables on the model projections through 2035. The future number of pediatric anesthesiologists is determined by the current supply, additions to the workforce, and departures from the workforce. We previously compiled a database of US pediatric anesthesiologists in the base year of 2015. The historical linear growth rate for pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions was determined using the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Data Resource Books from 2002 to 2016. The future number of pediatric anesthesiologists in the workforce was projected given growth of pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions at the historical linear growth rate, modeling that 75% of graduating fellows remain in the pediatric anesthesiology workforce, and anesthesiologists retire at the current mean retirement age of 64 years old. The baseline model projections were accompanied by age- and gender-adjusted anesthesiologist supply, and sensitivity analyses of potential variations in fellowship position growth, retirement, pediatric population, inpatient surgery, and market share to evaluate the effect of each model variable on the baseline model. The projected ratio of pediatric anesthesiologists to pediatric population was determined using the 2012 US Census pediatric population projections. The projected number of inpatient pediatric procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist was determined using the Kids' Inpatient Database historical data to project the future number of inpatient procedures (including out of operating room procedures). In 2015, there were 5.4 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100,000 pediatric population and a mean (±standard deviation [SD]) of 262 ±8 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist. If historical trends continue, there will be an estimated 7.4 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100,000 pediatric population and a mean (±SD) 193 ±6 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist in 2035. If pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions plateau at 2015 levels, there will be an estimated 5.7 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100,000 pediatric population and a mean (±SD) 248 ±7 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist in 2035. If historical trends continue, the growth in pediatric anesthesiologist supply may exceed the growth in both the pediatric population and inpatient procedures in the 20-year period from 2015 to 2035.

Neuropsychological assessment in migraine patients: a descriptive review on cognitive implications.

PubMed

Foti, Maria; Lo Buono, Viviana; Corallo, Francesco; Palmeri, Rosanna; Bramanti, Placido; Marino, Silvia

2017-04-01

Migraine is considered a disabling disorder with highly prevalence in population. Recent studies report that migraine patients have a cognitive decline associated to structural brain alterations. We search on PubMed and Web of Science databases and screening references of included studies and review articles for additional citations. From 519 studies identified, only 16 met the inclusion criteria. All studies were conducted on 1479 migraineurs (190 non-migraine headache and 11,978 controls subject) and examined the association between migraine and cognitive impairment. The results are discordant. Indeed, while cognitive deficits during the attack of migraine are now recognized, only few studies confirmed the presence of cognitive impairment in migraine patients. Given the prevalence of migraine in the population (especially among women), and the early age of the population, an association between migraine and cognitive impairment could have substantial public health implications. Future studies should determine if specific migraine characteristics, for example, attack frequency, may impact the association between migraine and cognitive decline.

Relation between age and carotid artery intima-medial thickness: a systematic review.

PubMed

van den Munckhof, Inge C L; Jones, Helen; Hopman, Maria T E; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Nyakayiru, Jean; van Dijk, Bart; Eijsvogels, Thijs M H; Thijssen, Dick H J

2018-05-12

Carotid artery intima-medial thickness (cIMT) represents a popular measure of atherosclerosis and is predictive of future cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. Although older age is associated with a higher cIMT, little is known about whether this increase in cIMT follows a linear relationship with age or it is affected under influence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) or CVD risk factors. We hypothesize that the relationship between cIMT and age is nonlinear and is affected by CVD or risk factors. A systematic review of studies that examined cIMT in the general population and human populations free from CVD/risk factors was undertaken. The literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Seventeen studies with 32 unique study populations, involving 10,124 healthy individuals free from CVD risk factors, were included. Furthermore, 58 studies with 115 unique study populations were included, involving 65,774 individuals from the general population (with and without CVD risk factors). A strong positive association was evident between age and cIMT in the healthy population, demonstrating a gradual, linear increase in cIMT that did not differ between age decades (r = 0.91, P < 0.001). Although populations with individuals with CVD demonstrated a higher cIMT compared to populations free of CVD, a linear relation between age and cIMT was also present in this population. Our data suggest that cIMT is strongly and linearly related to age. This linear relationship was not affected by CVD or risk factors. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of Intrinsic Rate of Different House Fly Densities in a Simulated Condition: A Prediction for House Fly Population and Control Threshold.

PubMed

Ong, Song-Quan; Ahmad, Hamdan; Jaal, Zairi; Rus, Adanan; Fadzlah, Fadhlina Hazwani Mohd

2017-01-01

Determining the control threshold for a pest is common prior to initiating a pest control program; however, previous studies related to the house fly control threshold for a poultry farm are insufficient for determining such a threshold. This study aimed to predict the population changes of house fly population by comparing the intrinsic rate of increase (r m ) for different house fly densities in a simulated system. This study first defined the knee points of a known population growth curve as a control threshold by comparing the r m of five densities of house flies in a simulated condition. Later, to understand the interactions between the larval and adult populations, the correlation between larval and adult capacity rate (r c ) was studied. The r m values of 300- and 500-fly densities were significantly higher compared with the r m values at densities of 50 and 100 flies. This result indicated their representative indices as candidates for a control threshold. The r c of larval and adult populations were negatively correlated with densities of fewer than 300 flies; this implicated adult populations with fewer than 300 flies as declining while the larval population was growing; therefore, control approaches should focus on the immature stages. The results in the present study suggest a control threshold for house fly populations. Future works should focus on calibrating the threshold indices in field conditions. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Positioning for capitation in long-term care: a profile of vertical integration strategies in health and social service organizations.

PubMed

Walsh, A M

1998-01-01

During the next decade, the population over age 65 is expected to increase by 11% while the population over age 85 is expected to increase by 42%. These projections suggest that many organizations which currently provide services to the aged will be required to design a range of new products and services for this diverse population. Vertically integrated services provide a viable opportunity to competitively position an organization to respond to the diverse needs of an aged market. Since vertical integration will be essential in negotiating capitate contracts for the aged in the future, this study examined the extent of vertical integration in 116 health and social service organizations in an urban market with an expanding geriatric population.

Brackish habitat dictates cultivable Actinobacterial diversity from marine sponges

PubMed Central

Chanana, Shaurya; Adnani, Navid; Szachowicz, Emily; Braun, Doug R.; Harper, Mary Kay; Wyche, Thomas P.; Bugni, Tim S.

2017-01-01

Bacterial communities associated with marine invertebrates such as sponges and ascidians have demonstrated potential as sources of bio-medically relevant small molecules. Metagenomic analysis has shown that many of these invertebrates harbor populations of Actinobacteria, many of which are cultivable. While some populations within invertebrates are transmitted vertically, others are obtained from the environment. We hypothesized that cultivable diversity from sponges living in brackish mangrove habitats have associations with Actinobacterial populations that differ from those found in clear tropical waters. In this study, we analyzed the cultivable Actinobacterial populations from sponges found in these two distinct habitats with the aim of understanding the secondary metabolite potential. Importantly, we wanted to broadly evaluate the potential differences among these groups to guide future Actinobacterial collection strategies for the purposes of drug discovery. PMID:28692665

Environmental exposures to metals in Native communities and implications for child development: basis for the Navajo birth cohort study.

PubMed

Lewis, Johnnye; Gonzales, Melissa; Burnette, Courtney; Benally, Malcolm; Seanez, Paula; Shuey, Christopher; Nez, Helen; Nez, Christopher; Nez, Seraphina

2015-01-01

Two disparate statistics often cited for the Western United States raise concern about risks for developmental disabilities in Native American children. First, 13 of the states with the highest percentage of Native American population are located in the Western United States (U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 ). Second, more than 161,000 abandoned hard-rock mines are located in 12 Western states (General Accounting Office, 2014 ). Moreover, numerous studies have linked low-level metals exposure with birth defects and developmental delays. Concern has emerged among tribal populations that metals exposure from abandoned mines might threaten development of future generations.

Nonhuman gamblers: lessons from rodents, primates, and robots

PubMed Central

Paglieri, Fabio; Addessi, Elsa; De Petrillo, Francesca; Laviola, Giovanni; Mirolli, Marco; Parisi, Domenico; Petrosino, Giancarlo; Ventricelli, Marialba; Zoratto, Francesca; Adriani, Walter

2014-01-01

The search for neuronal and psychological underpinnings of pathological gambling in humans would benefit from investigating related phenomena also outside of our species. In this paper, we present a survey of studies in three widely different populations of agents, namely rodents, non-human primates, and robots. Each of these populations offers valuable and complementary insights on the topic, as the literature demonstrates. In addition, we highlight the deep and complex connections between relevant results across these different areas of research (i.e., cognitive and computational neuroscience, neuroethology, cognitive primatology, neuropsychiatry, evolutionary robotics), to make the case for a greater degree of methodological integration in future studies on pathological gambling. PMID:24574984

Isolation and characterization of macaroni penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus) microsatellite loci and their utility in other penguin species (Spheniscidae, AVES).

PubMed

Ahmed, Sophia; Hart, Tom; Dawson, Deborah A; Horsburgh, Gavin J; Trathan, Philip N; Rogers, Alex D

2009-11-01

We report the characterization of 25 microsatellite loci isolated from the macaroni penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus). Thirteen loci were arranged into four multiplex sets for future genetic studies of macaroni penguin populations. All 25 loci were tested separately in each of four other penguin species [Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarctica), gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua) and king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus)]. Between eight and 12 loci were polymorphic per species. These loci are expected to be useful for studies of population genetic structure in a range of penguin species. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Epidemiologic studies of electric and magnetic fields and cancer: Strategies for extending knowledge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savitz, D.A.

1993-12-01

Epidemiologic research concerning electric and magnetic fields in relation to cancer has focused on the potential etiologic roles of residential exposure on childhood cancer and occupational exposure on adult leukemia and brain cancer. Future residential studies must concentrate on exposure assessment that is enhanced by developing models of historical exposure, assessment of the relation between magnetic fields and wire codes, and consideration of alternate exposure indices. Study design issues deserving attention include possible biases in random digit dialing control selection, consideration of the temporal course of exposure and disease, and acquisition of the necessary information to assess the potential valuemore » of ecologic studies. Highest priorities are comprehensive evaluation of exposure patterns and sources and examination of the sociology and geography of residential wire codes. Future occupational studies should also concentrate on improved exposure assessment with increased attention to nonutility worker populations and development of historical exposure indicators that are superior to job titles alone. Potential carcinogens in the workplace that could act as confounders need to be more carefully examined. The temporal relation between exposure and disease and possible effect modification by other workplace agents should be incorporated into future studies. The most pressing need is for measurement of exposure patterns in a variety of worker populations and performance of traditional epidemiologic evaluations of cancer occurrence. The principal source of bias toward the null is nondifferential misclassification of exposure with improvements expected to enhance any true etiologic association that is present. Biases away from the null might include biased control selection in residential studies and chemical carcinogens acting as confounders in occupational studies. 51 refs., 1 tab.« less

A review of the health impacts of barium from natural and anthropogenic exposure.

PubMed

Kravchenko, Julia; Darrah, Thomas H; Miller, Richard K; Lyerly, H Kim; Vengosh, Avner

2014-08-01

There is an increasing public awareness of the relatively new and expanded industrial barium uses which are potential sources of human exposure (e.g., a shale gas development that causes an increased awareness of environmental exposures to barium). However, absorption of barium in exposed humans and a full spectrum of its health effects, especially among chronically exposed to moderate and low doses of barium populations, remain unclear. We suggest a systematic literature review (from 1875 to 2014) on environmental distribution of barium, its bioaccumulation, and potential and proven health impacts (in animal models and humans) to provide the information that can be used for optimization of future experimental and epidemiological studies and developing of mitigative and preventive strategies to minimize negative health effects in exposed populations. The potential health effects of barium exposure are largely based on animal studies, while epidemiological data for humans, specifically for chronic low-level exposures, are sparse. The reported health effects include cardiovascular and kidney diseases, metabolic, neurological, and mental disorders. Age, race, dietary patterns, behavioral risks (e.g., smoking), use of medications (those that interfere with absorbed barium in human organism), and specific physiological status (e.g., pregnancy) can modify barium effects on human health. Identifying, evaluating, and predicting the health effects of chronic low-level and moderate-level barium exposures in humans is challenging: Future research is needed to develop an understanding of barium bioaccumulation in order to mitigate its potential health impacts in various exposured populations. Further, while occupationally exposed at-risk populations exist, it is also important to identify potentially vulnerable subgroups among non-occupationally exposed populations (e.g., elderly, pregnant women, children) who are at higher risk of barium exposure from drinking water and food.

White-tailed deer in the Midwest.

Treesearch

USDA FS

1970-01-01

Discusses the present status and future prospects of the nonyarding white-tailed deer population in the Midwestern United States. Range appraisal, habitat, harvest regulation, and population control are included.

Mental health of survivors of 1984 Bhopal disaster: A continuing challenge

PubMed Central

Murthy, R. Srinivasa

2014-01-01

Bhopal disaster is an important milestone in Indian Industrial Psychiatry. The disaster was not only the biggest industrial disaster but also one in which complex forces have joined hands to demy the mental health needs of the population. Though the biggest general population epidemiological study over 5 years was carried out to understand the mental health impact of the disaster, the findings of this study did not get reflected in mental health care for the population. Furthermore, the needed longitudinal studies and evaluation of the interventions were not undertaken. There was no sharing of information with the survivors about the impact of the disaster on their health and well-being and sharing of skills for self-care. A result of these factors is the extreme degree of dissatisfaction in the population. Looking back, it would have met the needs of the Bhopal population, if the mental health services were community based and reaching the population, rather than the clinic-based approaches, there was a wide range of services, especially rehabilitation, continuous research into the changing mental health needs of the population and the effectiveness of interventions and most importantly, there was a continuous dialogue with the population and sharing of information with the general population. These are the tasks for the immediate future to reorganize the focus of mental health initiatives in Bhopal. Many lessons can be learnt from the Bhopal disaster and the continuing tragedy for the population. PMID:25788796

Demographic studies of Joshua trees in Mojave Desert National Parks: demography with emphasis on germination and recruitment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esque, T.C.; Reynolds, B.; DeFalco, L.A.; Waitman, B.A.; Hughson, Debra

2010-01-01

The study of population change with regard to reproduction, seed dispersal, and germination, establishment, growth, and survival/mortality is known as demography. Demographic studies provide managers with information to assess future trends on the density, distribution, health, and population changes of importance or value, including Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia). Demographic research provides the potential to understand the combined impacts of climate change and land-use practices and determine if strategies for protecting important species are likely to succeed or fall short of management goals and will identify factors that have the potential to de-stabilize populations outside the realm of natural variation so that management strategies can be developed to circumvent challenges for key species, processes, and ecosystems. The National Park Service and US Geological Survey are collaborating to collect demographic information about the demographics of Joshua tree in the Mojave Desert.