Sample records for population level impacts
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhu Qin, E-mail: zhuqin@fudan.edu.cn; Peng Xizhe, E-mail: xzpeng@fudan.edu.cn
This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects onmore » carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.« less
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Theory's role in shaping behavioral health research for population health.
King, Abby C
2015-11-26
The careful application of theory often is used in the behavioral health field to enhance our understanding of how the world currently works. But theory also can help us visualize what the world can become, particularly through its potential impacts on population-wide health. Applying a multi-level ecological perspective can help in expanding the field's focus upward toward the population at large. While ecological frameworks have become increasingly popular, arguably such perspectives have fallen short of their potential to actively bridge conceptual constructs and, by extension, intervention approaches, across different levels of population impact. Theoretical and conceptual perspectives that explicitly span levels of impact offer arguably the greatest potential for achieving scientific insights that may in turn produce the largest population health effects. Examples of such "bridging" approaches include theories and models that span behavioral + micro-environment, behavioral + social/cultural, and social + physical environment constructs. Several recommendations are presented related to opportunities for leveraging theories to attain the greatest impact in the population health science field. These include applying the evidence obtained from person-level theories to inform methods for positively impacting the behaviors of community gatekeepers and decision-makers for greater population change and reach; leveraging the potential of residents as "citizen scientists"--a resource for enacting behavioral health changes at the individual, environmental, and policy levels; using empirical observations and theory in equal parts to build more robust, relevant, and solution-oriented behavior change programs; exploring moderators and mediators of change at levels of impact that go beyond the individual; and considering the circumstances in which applying conceptual methods that embrace a "complexity" as opposed to "causality" perspective may lead to more flexible and agile scientific approaches that could accelerate both population-relevant discoveries and applications in the field. The commentary closes with suggestions concerning additional areas to be considered to facilitate continued advances in the health behavior field more generally to attain the greatest impacts on population health.
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Griffen, Blaine D
2016-03-01
The impact of human-induced stressors, such as invasive species, is often measured at the organismal level, but is much less commonly scaled up to the population level. Interactions with invasive species represent an increasingly common source of stressor in many habitats. However, due to the increasing abundance of invasive species around the globe, invasive species now commonly cause stresses not only for native species in invaded areas, but also for other invasive species. I examine the European green crab Carcinus maenas, an invasive species along the northeast coast of North America, which is known to be negatively impacted in this invaded region by interactions with the invasive Asian shore crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus. Asian shore crabs are known to negatively impact green crabs via two mechanisms: by directly preying on green crab juveniles and by indirectly reducing green crab fecundity via interference (and potentially exploitative) competition that alters green crab diets. I used life-table analyses to scale these two mechanistic stressors up to the population level in order to examine their relative impacts on green crab populations. I demonstrate that lost fecundity has larger impacts on per capita population growth rates, but that both predation and lost fecundity are capable of reducing population growth sufficiently to produce the declines in green crab populations that have been observed in areas where these two species overlap. By scaling up the impacts of one invader on a second invader, I have demonstrated that multiple documented interactions between these species are capable of having population-level impacts and that both may be contributing to the decline of European green crabs in their invaded range on the east coast of North America.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lin Shoufu, E-mail: linshf2003@126.co; Zhao Dingtao, E-mail: box@ustc.edu.c; Marinova, Dora, E-mail: D.Marinova@curtin.edu.a
Assuming that energy consumption is the main source of GHG emissions in China, this paper analyses the effect of population, urbanisation level, GDP per capita, industrialisation level and energy intensity on the country's environmental impact using the STIRPAT model with data for 1978-2006. The analysis shows that population has the largest potential effect on environmental impact, followed by urbanisation level, industrialisation level, GDP per capita and energy intensity. Hence, China's One Child Policy, which restrains rapid population growth, has been an effective way of reducing the country's environmental impact. However, due to the difference in growth rates, GDP per capitamore » had a higher effect on the environmental impact, contributing to 38% of its increase (while population's contribution was at 32%). The rapid decrease in energy intensity was the main factor restraining the increase in China's environmental impact but recently it has also been rising. Against this background, the future of the country looks bleak unless a change in human behaviour towards more ecologically sensitive economic choices occurs.« less
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Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yang, Yayun; Zhao, Tao; Wang, Yanan, E-mail: wyn3615@126.com
Carbon emissions related to population factors have aroused great attention around the world. A multitude of literature mainly focused on single demographic impacts on environmental issues at the national level, and comprehensive studies concerning population-related factors at a city level are rare. This paper employed STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model incorporating PLS (Partial least squares) regression method to examine the influence of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Empirically results manifest that urbanization is the paramount driver. Changes in population age structure have significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions,more » and shrinking young population, continuous expansion of working age population and aging population will keep on increasing environmental pressures. Meanwhile, shrinking household size and expanding floating population boost the discharge of carbon emissions. Besides, per capita consumption is an important contributor of carbon emissions, while industry energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor. Based upon these findings and the specific circumstances of Beijing, policies such as promoting clean and renewable energy, improving population quality and advocating low carbon lifestyles should be enhanced to achieve targeted emissions reductions. - Highlights: • We employed the STIRPAT model to identify population-related factors of carbon emissions in Beijing. • Urbanization is the paramount driver of carbon emissions. • Changes in population age structure exert significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions. • Shrinking household size, expanding floating population and improving consumption level increase carbon emissions. • Industry energy intensity decreases carbon emissions.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.
2017-12-01
We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.
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Using Population Dose to Evaluate Community-level Health Initiatives.
Harner, Lisa T; Kuo, Elena S; Cheadle, Allen; Rauzon, Suzanne; Schwartz, Pamela M; Parnell, Barbara; Kelly, Cheryl; Solomon, Loel
2018-05-01
Successful community-level health initiatives require implementing an effective portfolio of strategies and understanding their impact on population health. These factors are complicated by the heterogeneity of overlapping multicomponent strategies and availability of population-level data that align with the initiatives. To address these complexities, the population dose methodology was developed for planning and evaluating multicomponent community initiatives. Building on the population dose methodology previously developed, this paper operationalizes dose estimates of one initiative targeting youth physical activity as part of the Kaiser Permanente Community Health Initiative, a multicomponent community-level obesity prevention initiative. The technical details needed to operationalize the population dose method are explained, and the use of population dose as an interim proxy for population-level survey data is introduced. The alignment of the estimated impact from strategy-level data analysis using the dose methodology and the data from the population-level survey suggest that dose is useful for conducting real-time evaluation of multiple heterogeneous strategies, and as a viable proxy for existing population-level surveys when robust strategy-level evaluation data are collected. This article is part of a supplement entitled Building Thriving Communities Through Comprehensive Community Health Initiatives, which is sponsored by Kaiser Permanente, Community Health. Copyright © 2018 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Cheadle, Allen; Schwartz, Pamela M.; Rauzon, Suzanne; Bourcier, Emily; Senter, Sandra; Spring, Rebecca; Beery, William L.
2013-01-01
When planning and evaluating community-level initiatives focused on policy and environment change, it is useful to have estimates of the impact on behavioral outcomes of particular strategies (e.g., building a new walking trail to promote physical activity). We have created a measure of estimated strategy-level impact--"population dose"--based on…
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Galic, Nika; Sullivan, Lauren L; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E
2018-04-01
Ecosystems are exposed to multiple stressors which can compromise functioning and service delivery. These stressors often co-occur and interact in different ways which are not yet fully understood. Here, we applied a population model representing a freshwater amphipod feeding on leaf litter in forested streams. We simulated impacts of hypothetical stressors, individually and in pairwise combinations that target the individuals' feeding, maintenance, growth and reproduction. Impacts were quantified by examining responses at three levels of biological organisation: individual-level body sizes and cumulative reproduction, population-level abundance and biomass and ecosystem-level leaf litter decomposition. Interactive effects of multiple stressors at the individual level were mostly antagonistic, that is, less negative than expected. Most population- and ecosystem-level responses to multiple stressors were stronger than expected from an additive model, that is, synergistic. Our results suggest that across levels of biological organisation responses to multiple stressors are rarely only additive. We suggest methods for efficiently quantifying impacts of multiple stressors at different levels of biological organisation. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
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Individual and population-level responses to ocean acidification.
Harvey, Ben P; McKeown, Niall J; Rastrick, Samuel P S; Bertolini, Camilla; Foggo, Andy; Graham, Helen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Milazzo, Marco; Shaw, Paul W; Small, Daniel P; Moore, Pippa J
2016-01-29
Ocean acidification is predicted to have detrimental effects on many marine organisms and ecological processes. Despite growing evidence for direct impacts on specific species, few studies have simultaneously considered the effects of ocean acidification on individuals (e.g. consequences for energy budgets and resource partitioning) and population level demographic processes. Here we show that ocean acidification increases energetic demands on gastropods resulting in altered energy allocation, i.e. reduced shell size but increased body mass. When scaled up to the population level, long-term exposure to ocean acidification altered population demography, with evidence of a reduction in the proportion of females in the population and genetic signatures of increased variance in reproductive success among individuals. Such increased variance enhances levels of short-term genetic drift which is predicted to inhibit adaptation. Our study indicates that even against a background of high gene flow, ocean acidification is driving individual- and population-level changes that will impact eco-evolutionary trajectories.
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Assessing vulnerability of marine bird populations to offshore wind farms.
Furness, Robert W; Wade, Helen M; Masden, Elizabeth A
2013-04-15
Offshore wind farms may affect bird populations through collision mortality and displacement. Given the pressures to develop offshore wind farms, there is an urgent need to assess population-level impacts on protected marine birds. Here we refine an approach to assess aspects of their ecology that influence population vulnerability to wind farm impacts, also taking into account the conservation importance of each species. Flight height appears to be a key factor influencing collision mortality risk but improved data on flight heights of marine birds are needed. Collision index calculations identify populations of gulls, white-tailed eagles, northern gannets and skuas as of particularly high concern in Scottish waters. Displacement index calculations identify populations of divers and common scoters as most vulnerable to population-level impacts of displacement, but these are likely to be less evident than impacts of collision mortality. The collision and displacement indices developed here for Scottish marine bird populations could be applied to populations elsewhere, and this approach will help in identifying likely impacts of future offshore wind farms on marine birds and prioritising monitoring programmes, at least until data on macro-avoidance rates become available. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Thompson, Paul M., E-mail: lighthouse@abdn.ac.uk; Hastie, Gordon D., E-mail: gdh10@st-andrews.ac.uk; Nedwell, Jeremy, E-mail: Jeremy.Nedwell@subacoustech.com
2013-11-15
Offshore wind farm developments may impact protected marine mammal populations, requiring appropriate assessment under the EU Habitats Directive. We describe a framework developed to assess population level impacts of disturbance from piling noise on a protected harbour seal population in the vicinity of proposed wind farm developments in NE Scotland. Spatial patterns of seal distribution and received noise levels are integrated with available data on the potential impacts of noise to predict how many individuals are displaced or experience auditory injury. Expert judgement is used to link these impacts to changes in vital rates and applied to population models thatmore » compare population changes under baseline and construction scenarios over a 25 year period. We use published data and hypothetical piling scenarios to illustrate how the assessment framework has been used to support environmental assessments, explore the sensitivity of the framework to key assumptions, and discuss its potential application to other populations of marine mammals. -- Highlights: • We develop a framework to support Appropriate Assessment for harbour seal populations. • We assessed potential impacts of wind farm construction noise. • Data on distribution of seals and noise were used to predict effects on individuals. • Expert judgement linked these impacts to vital rates to model population change. • We explore the sensitivity of the framework to key assumptions and uncertainties.« less
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Biomass, size, and trophic status of top predators in the Pacific Ocean.
Sibert, John; Hampton, John; Kleiber, Pierre; Maunder, Mark
2006-12-15
Fisheries have removed at least 50 million tons of tuna and other top-level predators from the Pacific Ocean pelagic ecosystem since 1950, leading to concerns about a catastrophic reduction in population biomass and the collapse of oceanic food chains. We analyzed all available data from Pacific tuna fisheries for 1950-2004 to provide comprehensive estimates of fishery impacts on population biomass and size structure. Current biomass ranges among species from 36 to 91% of the biomass predicted in the absence of fishing, a level consistent with or higher than standard fisheries management targets. Fish larger than 175 centimeters fork length have decreased from 5% to approximately 1% of the total population. The trophic level of the catch has decreased slightly, but there is no detectable decrease in the trophic level of the population. These results indicate substantial, though not catastrophic, impacts of fisheries on these top-level predators and minor impacts on the ecosystem in the Pacific Ocean.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Deloach, R.
1981-01-01
The Fraction Impact Method (FIM), developed by the National Research Council (NRC) for assessing the amount and physiological effect of noise, is described. Here, the number of people exposed to a given level of noise is multiplied by a weighting factor that depends on noise level. It is pointed out that the Aircraft-noise Levels and Annoyance MOdel (ALAMO), recently developed at NASA Langley Research Center, can perform the NRC fractional impact calculations for given modes of operation at any U.S. airport. The sensitivity of these calculations to errors in estimates of population, noise level, and human subjective response is discussed. It is found that a change in source noise causes a substantially smaller change in contour area than would be predicted simply on the basis of inverse square law considerations. Another finding is that the impact calculations are generally less sensitive to source noise errors than to systematic errors in population or subjective response.
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An airport community noise-impact assessment model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Deloach, R.
1980-01-01
A computer model was developed to assess the noise impact of an airport on the community which it serves. Assessments are made using the Fractional Impact Method by which a single number describes the community aircraft noise environment in terms of exposed population and multiple event noise level. The model is comprised of three elements: a conventional noise footprint model, a site specific population distribution model, and a dose response transfer function. The footprint model provides the noise distribution for a given aircraft operating scenario. This is combined with the site specific population distribution obtained from a national census data base to yield the number of residents exposed to a given level of noise. The dose response relationship relates noise exposure levels to the percentage of individuals highly annoyed by those levels.
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Fulton, M; Key, P; Wirth, E; Leight, A K; Daugomah, J; Bearden, D; Sivertsen, S; Scott, G
2006-10-01
Toxic contaminants may enter estuarine ecosystems through a variety of pathways. When sediment contaminant levels become sufficiently high, they may impact resident biota. One approach to predict sediment-associated toxicity in estuarine ecosystems involves the use of sediment quality guidelines (ERMs, ERLs) and site-specific contaminant chemistry while a second approach utilizes site-specific ecological sampling to assess impacts at the population or community level. The goal of this study was to utilize an integrated approach including chemical contaminant analysis, sediment quality guidelines and grass shrimp population monitoring to evaluate the impact of contaminants from industrial sources. Three impacted sites and one reference site were selected for study. Grass shrimp populations were sampled using a push-netting approach. Sediment samples were collected at each site and analyzed for metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. Contaminant levels were then compared to sediment quality guidelines. In general, grass shrimp population densities at the sites decreased as the ERM quotients increased. Grass shrimp densities were significantly reduced at the impacted site that had an ERM exceedance for chromium and the highest Mean ERM quotient. Regression analysis indicated that sediment chromium concentrations were negatively correlated with grass shrimp density. Grass shrimp size was reduced at two sites with intermediate levels of contamination. These findings support the use of both sediment quality guidelines and site-specific population monitoring to evaluate the impacts of sediment-associated contaminants in estuarine systems.
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The fallacy of using NII in analyzing aircraft operations. [Noise Impact Index
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Melton, R. G.; Jacobson, I. D.
1984-01-01
Three measures of noise annoyance (Noise Impact Index, Level-Weighted Population, and Annoyed Population Number) are compared, regarding their utility in assessing noise reduction schemes for aircraft operations. While NII is intended to measure the average annoyance per person in a community, it is found that the method of averaging can lead to erroneous conclusions, particularly if the population does not have uniform spatial distribution. Level-Weighted Population and Annoyed Population Number are shown to be better indicators of noise annoyance when rating different strategies for noise reduction in a given community.
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Alamgir, Hasanat; Turner, Caryn A; Wong, Nicole J; Cooper, Sharon P; Betancourt, Jose A; Henry, James; Senchak, Andrew J; Hammill, Tanisha L; Packer, Mark D
2016-01-01
The objectives of this research were to 1) summarize the available evidence on the impact of hearing loss on quality of life (QOL) among U.S. active-duty service members, 2) describe the QOL instruments that have been used to quantify the impact of hearing loss on quality of life, 3) examine national population-level secondary databases and report on their utility for studying the impact of hearing loss on QOL among active-duty service members, and 4) provide recommendations for future studies that seek to quantify the impact of hearing loss in this population. There is a lack of literature that addresses the intersection of hearing impairment, the military population, and quality of life measures. For audiological research, U.S. military personnel offer a unique research population, as they are exposed to noise levels and blast environments that are highly unusual in civilian work settings and can serve as a model population for studying the impact on QOL associated with these conditions. Our team recommends conducting a study on the active-duty service member population using a measurement instrument suitable for determining decreases in QOL specifically due to hearing loss.
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Incremental benefits of male HPV vaccination: accounting for inequality in population uptake.
Smith, Megan A; Canfell, Karen
2014-01-01
Vaccines against HPV16/18 are approved for use in females and males but most countries currently have female-only programs. Cultural and geographic factors associated with HPV vaccine uptake might also influence sexual partner choice; this might impact post-vaccination outcomes. Our aims were to examine the population-level impact of adding males to HPV vaccination programs if factors influencing vaccine uptake also influence partner choice, and additionally to quantify how this changes the post-vaccination distribution of disease between subgroups, using incident infections as the outcome measure. A dynamic model simulated vaccination of pre-adolescents in two scenarios: 1) vaccine uptake was correlated with factors which also affect sexual partner choice ("correlated"); 2) vaccine uptake was unrelated to these factors ("unrelated"). Coverage and degree of heterogeneity in uptake were informed by observed data from Australia and the USA. Population impact was examined via the effect on incident HPV16 infections. The rate ratio for post-vaccination incident HPV16 in the lowest compared to the highest coverage subgroup (RR(L)) was calculated to quantify between-group differences in outcomes. The population-level incremental impact of adding males was lower if vaccine uptake was "correlated", however the difference in population-level impact was extremely small (<1%) in the Australia and USA scenarios, even under the conservative and extreme assumption that subgroups according to coverage did not mix at all sexually. At the subgroup level, "correlated" female-only vaccination resulted in RR(L)= 1.9 (Australia) and 1.5 (USA) in females, and RR(L)= 1.5 and 1.3 in males. "Correlated" both-sex vaccination increased RR(L) to 4.2 and 2.1 in females and 3.9 and 2.0 in males in the Australia and USA scenarios respectively. The population-level incremental impact of male vaccination is unlikely to be substantially impacted by feasible levels of heterogeneity in uptake. However, these findings emphasize the continuing importance of prioritizing high coverage across all groups in HPV vaccination programs in terms of achieving equality of outcomes.
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Topping, Christopher John; Kjaer, Lene Jung; Hommen, Udo; Høye, Toke Thomas; Preuss, Thomas G; Sibly, Richard M; van Vliet, Peter
2014-07-01
Current European Union regulatory risk assessment allows application of pesticides provided that recovery of nontarget arthropods in-crop occurs within a year. Despite the long-established theory of source-sink dynamics, risk assessment ignores depletion of surrounding populations and typical field trials are restricted to plot-scale experiments. In the present study, the authors used agent-based modeling of 2 contrasting invertebrates, a spider and a beetle, to assess how the area of pesticide application and environmental half-life affect the assessment of recovery at the plot scale and impact the population at the landscape scale. Small-scale plot experiments were simulated for pesticides with different application rates and environmental half-lives. The same pesticides were then evaluated at the landscape scale (10 km × 10 km) assuming continuous year-on-year usage. The authors' results show that recovery time estimated from plot experiments is a poor indicator of long-term population impact at the landscape level and that the spatial scale of pesticide application strongly determines population-level impact. This raises serious doubts as to the utility of plot-recovery experiments in pesticide regulatory risk assessment for population-level protection. Predictions from the model are supported by empirical evidence from a series of studies carried out in the decade starting in 1988. The issues raised then can now be addressed using simulation. Prediction of impacts at landscape scales should be more widely used in assessing the risks posed by environmental stressors. © 2014 SETAC.
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Limiting similarity and niche theory for structured populations.
Szilágyi, András; Meszéna, Géza
2009-05-07
We develop the theory of limiting similarity and niche for structured populations with finite number of individual states (i-state). In line with a previously published theory for unstructured populations, the niche of a species is specified by the impact and sensitivity niche vectors. They describe the population's impact on and sensitivity towards the variables involved in the population regulation. Robust coexistence requires sufficient segregation of the impact, as well as of the sensitivity niche vectors. Connection between the population-level impact and sensitivity and the impact/sensitivity of the specific i-states is developed. Each i-state contributes to the impact of the population proportional to its frequency in the population. Sensitivity of the population is composed of the sensitivity of the rates of demographic transitions, weighted by the frequency and by the reproductive value of the initial and final i-states of the transition, respectively. Coexistence in a multi-patch environment is studied. This analysis is interpreted as spatial niche segregation.
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Macro-Level Approaches to HIV Prevention Among Ethnic Minority Youth
Prado, Guillermo; Lightfoot, Marguerita; Brown, C. Hendricks
2013-01-01
The HIV epidemic continues to disproportionately affect ethnic minority youth. These disconcerting health disparities indicate that although existing HIV preventive strategies for ethnic minority youth have been efficacious, they have not significantly reduced the impact of the epidemic in this population. Macro-level interventions, such as structural or policy interventions, have the potential to impact the HIV epidemic at a population level, and thus reduce the HIV health disparities that exist among ethnic minority youth and other segments of the U.S. population. This article calls for a paradigm shift to develop, evaluate, and disseminate interventions that target upstream/macro-level factors or that, at a minimum, integrate both a macro and individual level perspective. The article also discusses the challenges in developing and evaluating such interventions. Psychologists and other behavioral scientists can play a critical role in reducing the impact of HIV on ethnic minority youth by integrating macro-level approaches to future HIV prevention strategies. PMID:23688095
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Factors attributable for the prevalence of dental caries in Queensland children.
Do, Loc Giang; Ha, Diep Hong; Spencer, A John
2015-10-01
Dental caries is a multifactorial condition, prevention of which requires comprehensive understanding of both contextual and compositional determinants and their population impact. To investigate contextual and compositional factors associated with the prevalence of dental caries in children and to estimate the population impact of those factors. Children in one Australian state were selected through stratified random sampling selection in 2010-2011. Oral epidemiological examinations provided individual-level outcomes: prevalence of dental caries in the primary (among 5- to 8-year-olds) and permanent dentitions (9- to 14-year-olds). Socioeconomic status, oral health behaviours and practices and dietary patterns were explanatory factors at the individual-level, school-level and area-level fluoridation status. Three-level multilevel multivariable models were sequentially specified for the prevalence of dental caries to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) associated with explanatory factors, adjusting for covariates and between- and within-group variances. Population attributable fraction (PAF) was estimated as the population impact of the statistically significant explanatory factors. Data from 2214 5- to 8-year-olds and 3186 9- to 14-year-olds from 207 schools in 16 areas were analysed. The prevalence of dental caries in the primary and the permanent dentitions was 47.1% (43.9-50.4) and 38.8% (36.1-41.6), respectively. The highest prevalence of dental caries was observed in the nonfluoridated areas. In bivariate associations, factors at three levels were associated with prevalence of dental caries. In the full models, children in the nonfluoridated areas had significantly higher prevalence of dental caries [PR for the primary: 1.29 (1.11-1.50); PR for the permanent 1.49 (1.01-2.21)] compared with children in fluoridated areas, controlling for other factors. PAF estimates indicated that lack of water fluoridation attributed to 21% and 31% of primary and permanent dental caries, respectively in this child population. A multitude of factors had significant population impact on the prevalence of dental caries in children. Water fluoridation has a significant population impact on dental caries experience in this child population. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Vonhof, Maarten J.; Russell, Amy L.
Documented fatalities of bats at wind turbines have raised serious concerns about the future impacts of increased wind power development on populations of migratory bat species. Yet there is little data on bat population sizes and trends to provide context for understanding the consequences of mortality due to wind power development. Using a large dataset of both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA variation for eastern red bats, we demonstrated that: 1) this species forms a single, panmictic population across their range with no evidence for the historical use of divergent migratory pathways by any portion of the population; 2) the effectivemore » size of this population is in the hundreds of thousands to millions; and 3) for large populations, genetic diversity measures and at least one coalescent method are insensitive to even very high rates of population decline over long time scales and until population size has become very small. Our data provide important context for understanding the population-level impacts of wind power development on affected bat species.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dhondt, Stijn, E-mail: stijn.dhondt@vub.ac.be; Beckx, Carolien, E-mail: Carolien.Beckx@vito.be; Degraeuwe, Bart, E-mail: Bart.Degraeuwe@vito.be
In both ambient air pollution epidemiology and health impact assessment an accurate assessment of the population exposure is crucial. Although considerable advances have been made in assessing human exposure outdoors, the assessments often do not consider the impact of individual travel behavior on such exposures. Population-based exposures to NO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} using only home addresses were compared with models that integrate all time-activity patterns-including time in commute-for Flanders and Brussels. The exposure estimates were used to estimate the air pollution impact on years of life lost due to respiratory mortality. Health impact of NO{sub 2} using an exposuremore » that integrates time-activity information was on average 1.2% higher than when assuming that people are always at their home address. For ozone the overall estimated health impact was 0.8% lower. Local differences could be much larger, with estimates that differ up to 12% from the exposure using residential addresses only. Depending on age and gender, deviations from the population average were seen. Our results showed modest differences on a regional level. At the local level, however, time-activity patterns indicated larger differences in exposure and health impact estimates, mainly for people living in more rural areas. These results suggest that for local analyses the dynamic approach can contribute to an improved assessment of the health impact of various types of pollution and to the understanding of exposure differences between population groups. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Exposure to ambient air pollution was assessed integrating population mobility. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This dynamic exposure was integrated into a health impact assessment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Differences between the dynamic and residential exposure were quantified. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Modest differences in health impact were found at a regional level. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer At municipal level larger differences were found, influenced by gender and age.« less
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Fatalities at wind turbines may threaten population viability of a migratory bat
W.F. Frick; E.F. Baerwald; J.F. Pollock; R.M.R. Barclay; J.A. Szymanski; Ted Weller; A.L. Russell; Susan Loeb; R.A. Medellin; L.P. McGuire
2017-01-01
Large numbers of migratory bats are killed every year at wind energy facilities. However, population-level impacts are unknown as we lack basic demographic information about these species. We investigated whether fatalities at wind turbines could impact population viability of migratory bats, focusing on the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus),...
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Threatened and endangered species are increasingly impacted by agricultural pesticides. Interest in developing regulatory approaches that address pesticide impacts on populations is creating a need for risk assessment tools that capture interactions between life histories and sp...
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Threatened and endangered species are increasingly impacted by agricultural pesticides. Interest in developing regulatory approaches that address pesticide impacts on populations is creating a need for risk assessment tools that capture interactions between life histories and sp...
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DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2015-12-01
This research examines the impact of intercity passenger rails on change in population and employment at the county level in the continental United States from 2000 to 2010. This research adopts an integrated spatial regression approach that incorpor...
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Impact of the Tips From Former Smokers Campaign on Population-Level Smoking Cessation, 2012–2015
Davis, Kevin C.; Beistle, Diane; King, Brian A.; Duke, Jennifer; Rodes, Robert; Graffunder, Corinne
2018-01-01
This study provides estimates of the long-term cumulative impact of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s national tobacco education campaign, Tips From Former Smokers (Tips), on population-level smoking cessation. We used recently published estimates of the association between increased Tips campaign media doses and quit attempts to calculate campaign-attributable population sustained (6-month) quits during 2012–2015. Tips led to approximately 522,000 sustained quits during 2012–2015. These findings indicate that the Tips campaign’s comprehensive approach to combining evidence-based messages with the promotion of cessation resources was successful in achieving substantial long-term cigarette cessation at the population level over multiple years. PMID:29862960
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Robert R. Pattison; Carla M. D' Antonio; Tom L. Dudley; Kip K. Allander; Benjamin Rice
2010-01-01
The success of biological control programs is rarely assessed beyond population level impacts on the target organism. The question of whether a biological control agent can either partially or completely restore ecosystem services independent of population level control is therefore still open to discussion. Using observational and experimental approaches, we...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, Mengmeng; Feng, Guobin; Yu, Ting; Ye, Xisheng; Wang, Zhenbao; Shen, Yanlong; Zhao, Jun
2018-03-01
Impacts of Tm ion concentration and Ho ion concentration on the saturable behaviors of Tm-Ho codoped fiber saturable absorbers and the output characteristics of the passively Q-switched laser systems are investigated and analyzed both at the initial lasing state and the stable passive Q-switching state. Simulations show that, varying concentrations of Tm and Ho ions have different impacts on the temporal evolution processes but similar effects on the macroscopic characteristics of the laser system. The root for the impacts of dopant concentrations is the population of the 3H6 energy level and the cavity loss it induces. For Tm ions, the rise of the Tm concentration improves the population of the 3H6 energy level directly, while, for Ho ions, higher Ho concentration leads to larger recovery rate of the 3H6 energy level, thus increasing the population of the 3H6 energy level indirectly. As for limited total dopant concentration, the Tm:Ho concentration ratio can be optimized for different applications.
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de los Santos, Carmen B; Neuparth, Teresa; Torres, Tiago; Martins, Irene; Cunha, Isabel; Sheahan, Dave; McGowan, Tom; Santos, Miguel M
2015-06-01
A population agent-based model of marine amphipod Gammarus locusta was designed and implemented as a basis for ecological risk assessment of chemical pollutants impairing life-history traits at the individual level. We further used the model to assess the toxic effects of aniline (a priority hazardous and noxious substance, HNS) on amphipod populations using empirically-built dose-response functions derived from a chronic bioassay that we previously performed with this species. We observed a significant toxicant-induced mortality and adverse effects in reproductive performance (reduction of newborn production) in G. locusta at the individual level. Coupling the population model with the toxicological data from the chronic bioassay allowed the projection of the ecological costs associated with exposure to aniline that might occur in wild populations. Model simulations with different scenarios indicated that even low level prolonged exposure to the HNS aniline can have significant long-term impacts on G. locusta population abundance, until the impacted population returns to undisturbed levels. This approach may be a useful complement in ecotoxicological studies of chemical pollution to transfer individual-collected data to ecological-relevant levels. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Derstuganova, T M; VelichkovskiĬ, B T; Varaksin, A N; Gurvich, V B; Malykh, O L; Kochneva, N I; Iarushin, S V
2013-01-01
There was investigated the impact of socioeconomic factors on medical and demographic processes in working age population. For the assessment of the impact of living conditions and environmental factors on mortality rate in a population of the Sverdlovsk region factor-typological, correlation and regression analyzes were applied There was shown an availability of statistically significant correlation relationships between mortality of the population of working age and socio-economic characteristics (degree of home improvement, quality of medical care, the level of social tension, the level of the demographic load), as well as between their increments with taking into account the time shifts. The effect of the value of the purchasing power on the mortality rate of the working population has been established The purchasing power was shown to be connected with a mortality rate of working population from external causes more stronger than death from all causes.
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Yilmaz, Selmi; Adisen, Mehmet Zahit; Misirlioglu, Melda; Yorubulut, Serap
2016-01-01
Objectives The purpose of this study was to assess the pattern of third molar impaction and associated symptoms in a Central Anatolian Turkish population. Material and Methods A total of 2,133 impacted third molar teeth of 705 panoramic radiographs were reviewed. The positions of impacted third molar teeth on the panoramic radiographs were documented according to the classifications of Pell and Gregory and of Winter. The presence of related symptoms including pain, pericoronitis, lymphadenopathy and trismus was noted for every patient. Distributions of obtained values were compared using the Pearson χ2 test. Nonparametric values were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis test. Results The mean age of the subjects was 30.58 ± 11.98 years (range: 19-73); in a review of the 2,133 impacted third molar teeth, the most common angulation of impaction in both maxillaries was vertical (1,177; 55%). Level B impaction was the most common in the maxilla (425/1,037; 39%), while level C impaction was the most common in the mandible (635/1,096; 61%). Pain (272/705; 39%) and pericoronitis (188/705; 27%) were found to be the most common complications of impaction. Among 705 patients (335 males, 370 females), pericoronitis was more prevalent in males (101; 30%) and usually related to lower third molars (236; 22%). The retromolar space was significantly smaller in females (p < 0.05). Moreover, there was a significant difference in retromolar space for the area of jaw (maxillary: 11.3 mm; mandibular: 14.2 mm) and impaction level (A: 14.7 mm; B: 11.1 mm; C: 10.3 mm; p < 0.05). Conclusion The pattern of third molar impaction in a Central Anatolian Turkish population was characterized by a high prevalence rate of level C impaction with vertical position. Pain and pericoronitis were the most common symptoms usually associated with level A impaction and vertical position. PMID:26566129
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Yilmaz, Selmi; Adisen, Mehmet Zahit; Misirlioglu, Melda; Yorubulut, Serap
2016-01-01
The purpose of this study was to assess the pattern of third molar impaction and associated symptoms in a Central Anatolian Turkish population. A total of 2,133 impacted third molar teeth of 705 panoramic radiographs were reviewed. The positions of impacted third molar teeth on the panoramic radiographs were documented according to the classifications of Pell and Gregory and of Winter. The presence of related symptoms including pain, pericoronitis, lymphadenopathy and trismus was noted for every patient. Distributions of obtained values were compared using the Pearson χ2 test. Nonparametric values were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis test. The mean age of the subjects was 30.58 ± 11.98 years (range: 19-73); in a review of the 2,133 impacted third molar teeth, the most common angulation of impaction in both maxillaries was vertical (1,177; 55%). Level B impaction was the most common in the maxilla (425/1,037; 39%), while level C impaction was the most common in the mandible (635/1,096; 61%). Pain (272/705; 39%) and pericoronitis (188/705; 27%) were found to be the most common complications of impaction. Among 705 patients (335 males, 370 females), pericoronitis was more prevalent in males (101; 30%) and usually related to lower third molars (236; 22%). The retromolar space was significantly smaller in females (p < 0.05). Moreover, there was a significant difference in retromolar space for the area of jaw (maxillary: 11.3 mm; mandibular: 14.2 mm) and impaction level (A: 14.7 mm; B: 11.1 mm; C: 10.3 mm; p < 0.05). The pattern of third molar impaction in a Central Anatolian Turkish population was characterized by a high prevalence rate of level C impaction with vertical position. Pain and pericoronitis were the most common symptoms usually associated with level A impaction and vertical position. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.
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The evaluation of multi-generation, population-level impacts is particularly important in the risk assessment of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) because adverse effects may not be evident during the first generation of exposure. Population models were developed for the shee...
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To fully understand the potential long-term ecological impacts a pollutant has on a species, population-level effects must be estimated. Since long-term field experiments are typically not feasible, vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction of individual organisms ar...
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Carvalho-Silva, Denise R; Tyler-Smith, Chris
2008-05-01
We have analysed Y-chromosomal data from Indian caste, Indian tribal and East Asian populations in order to investigate the impact of the caste system on male genetic variation. We find that variation within populations is lower in India than in East Asia, while variation between populations is overall higher. This observation can be explained by greater subdivision within the Indian population, leading to more genetic drift. However, the effect is most marked in the tribal populations, and the level of variation between caste populations is similar to the level between Chinese populations. The caste system has therefore had a detectable impact on Y-chromosomal variation, but this has been less strong than the influence of the tribal system, perhaps because of larger population sizes in the castes, more gene flow or a shorter period of time.
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Impact of APOE gene polymorphisms on the lipid profile in an Algerian population
2013-01-01
Background The importance of apolipoprotein E (APOE) in lipid and lipoprotein metabolism is well established. However, the impact of APOE polymorphisms has never been investigated in an Algerian population. This study assessed, for the fist time, the relationships between three APOE polymorphisms (epsilon, rs439401, rs4420638) and plasma lipid concentrations in a general population sample from Algeria. Methods The association analysis was performed in the ISOR study, a representative sample of the population living in Oran (787 subjects aged between 30 and 64). Polymorphisms were considered both individually and as haplotypes. Results In the ISOR sample, APOE ϵ4 allele carriers had higher plasma triglyceride (p=0.0002), total cholesterol (p=0.009) and LDL-cholesterol (p=0.003) levels than ϵ3 allele carriers. No significant associations were detected for the rs4420638 and rs439401 SNPs. Linkage disequilibrium and haplotype analyses confirmed the respectively deleterious and protective impacts of the ϵ4 and ϵ2 alleles on LDL-cholesterol levels and showed that the G allele of the rs4420638 polymorphism may exert a protective effect on LDL-cholesterol levels in subjects bearing the APOE epsilon 4 allele. Conclusion Our results showed that (i) the APOE epsilon polymorphism has the expected impact on the plasma lipid profile and (ii) the rs4420638 G allele may counterbalance the deleterious effect of the ϵ4 allele on LDL-cholesterol levels in an Algerian population. PMID:24160669
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Traffic noise causes physiological stress and impairs breeding migration behaviour in frogs
Tennessen, Jennifer B.; Parks, Susan E.; Langkilde, Tracy
2014-01-01
Human-generated noise has profoundly changed natural soundscapes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, imposing novel pressures on ecological processes. Despite interest in identifying the ecological consequences of these altered soundscapes, little is known about the sublethal impacts on wildlife population health and individual fitness. We present evidence that noise induces a physiological stress response in an amphibian and impairs mate attraction in the natural environment. Traffic noise increased levels of a stress-relevant glucocorticoid hormone (corticosterone) in female wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and impaired female travel towards a male breeding chorus in the field, providing insight into the sublethal consequences of acoustic habitat loss. Given that prolonged elevated levels of corticosterone can have deleterious consequences on survival and reproduction and that impaired mate attraction can impact population persistence, our results suggest a novel pathway by which human activities may be imposing population-level impacts on globally declining amphibians. PMID:27293653
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Traffic noise causes physiological stress and impairs breeding migration behaviour in frogs.
Tennessen, Jennifer B; Parks, Susan E; Langkilde, Tracy
2014-01-01
Human-generated noise has profoundly changed natural soundscapes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, imposing novel pressures on ecological processes. Despite interest in identifying the ecological consequences of these altered soundscapes, little is known about the sublethal impacts on wildlife population health and individual fitness. We present evidence that noise induces a physiological stress response in an amphibian and impairs mate attraction in the natural environment. Traffic noise increased levels of a stress-relevant glucocorticoid hormone (corticosterone) in female wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and impaired female travel towards a male breeding chorus in the field, providing insight into the sublethal consequences of acoustic habitat loss. Given that prolonged elevated levels of corticosterone can have deleterious consequences on survival and reproduction and that impaired mate attraction can impact population persistence, our results suggest a novel pathway by which human activities may be imposing population-level impacts on globally declining amphibians.
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Vynnycky, Emilia; Sumner, Tom; Fielding, Katherine L.; Lewis, James J.; Cox, Andrew P.; Hayes, Richard J.; Corbett, Elizabeth L.; Churchyard, Gavin J.; Grant, Alison D.; White, Richard G.
2015-01-01
A recent major cluster randomized trial of screening, active disease treatment, and mass isoniazid preventive therapy for 9 months during 2006–2011 among South African gold miners showed reduced individual-level tuberculosis incidence but no detectable population-level impact. We fitted a dynamic mathematical model to trial data and explored 1) factors contributing to the lack of population-level impact, 2) the best-achievable impact if all implementation characteristics were increased to the highest level achieved during the trial (“optimized intervention”), and 3) how tuberculosis might be better controlled with additional interventions (improving diagnostics, reducing treatment delay, providing isoniazid preventive therapy continuously to human immunodeficiency virus–positive people, or scaling up antiretroviral treatment coverage) individually and in combination. We found the following: 1) The model suggests that a small proportion of latent infections among human immunodeficiency virus–positive people were cured, which could have been a key factor explaining the lack of detectable population-level impact. 2) The optimized implementation increased impact by only 10%. 3) Implementing additional interventions individually and in combination led to up to 30% and 75% reductions, respectively, in tuberculosis incidence after 10 years. Tuberculosis control requires a combination prevention approach, including health systems strengthening to minimize treatment delay, improving diagnostics, increased antiretroviral treatment coverage, and effective preventive treatment regimens. PMID:25792607
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Prazeres, Martina; Roberts, T Edward; Pandolfi, John M
2017-03-23
Large benthic foraminifera (LBF) are crucial marine calcifiers in coral reefs, and sensitive to environmental changes. Yet, many species successfully colonise a wide range of habitats including highly fluctuating environments. We tested the combined effects of ocean warming, local impacts and different light levels on populations of the common LBF Amphistegina lobifera collected along a cross-shelf gradient of temperature and nutrients fluctuations. We analysed survivorship, bleaching frequency, chlorophyll a content and fecundity. Elevated temperature and nitrate significantly reduced survivorship and fecundity of A. lobifera across populations studied. This pattern was exacerbated when combined with below optimum light levels. Inshore populations showed a consistent resistance to increased temperature and nitrate levels, but all populations studied were significantly affected by light reduction. These findings demonstrated the capacity of some populations of LBF to acclimate to local conditions; nonetheless improvements in local water quality can ultimately ameliorate effects of climate change in local LBF populations.
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Murillo, Anarina L; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Phillips, Elizabeth D Capaldi; Wadhera, Devina
2016-08-01
Eating behaviors among a large population of children are studied as a dynamic process driven by nonlinear interactions in the sociocultural school environment. The impact of food association learning on diet dynamics, inspired by a pilot study conducted among Arizona children in Pre-Kindergarten to 8th grades, is used to build simple population-level learning models. Qualitatively, mathematical studies are used to highlight the possible ramifications of instruction, learning in nutrition, and health at the community level. Model results suggest that nutrition education programs at the population-level have minimal impact on improving eating behaviors, findings that agree with prior field studies. Hence, the incorporation of food association learning may be a better strategy for creating resilient communities of healthy and non-healthy eaters. A Ratatouille effect can be observed when food association learners become food preference learners, a potential sustainable behavioral change, which in turn, may impact the overall distribution of healthy eaters. In short, this work evaluates the effectiveness of population-level intervention strategies and the importance of institutionalizing nutrition programs that factor in economical, social, cultural, and environmental elements that mesh well with the norms and values in the community.
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Fitzgerald, Niamh; Angus, Kathryn; Emslie, Carol; Shipton, Deborah; Bauld, Linda
2016-10-01
Consistent review-level evidence supports the effectiveness of population-level alcohol policies in reducing alcohol-related harms. Such policies interact with well-established social, cultural and biological differences in how men and women perceive, relate to and use alcohol, and with wider inequalities, in ways which may give rise to gender differences in policy effectiveness. This paper aimed to examine the extent to which gender-specific data and analyses were considered in, and are available from, systematic reviews of population-level alcohol policy interventions, and where possible, to conduct a narrative synthesis of relevant data. A prior systematic 'review of reviews' of population level alcohol interventions 2002-2012 was updated to May 2014, all gender-relevant data extracted, and the level and quality of gender reporting assessed. A narrative synthesis of extracted findings was conducted. Sixty-three systematic reviews, covering ten policy areas, were included. Five reviews (8%) consistently provided information on baseline participation by gender for each individual study in the review and twenty-nine (46%) reported some gender-specific information on the impact of the policies under consideration. Specific findings include evidence of possible gender differences in the impact of and exposure to alcohol marketing, and a failure to consider potential unintended consequences and harm to others in most reviews. Gender is poorly reported in systematic reviews of population-level interventions to reduce alcohol-related harm, hindering assessment of the intended and unintended effects of such policies on women and men. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.
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Toward Population Impact from Home Visiting
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Dodge, Kenneth A.; Goodman, W. Benjamin; Murphy, Robert; O'Donnell, Karen J.; Sato, Jeannine M.
2013-01-01
Although some home visiting programs have proven effective with the families they serve, no program has yet demonstrated broader impact on an entire county or state population. This article describes the Durham Connects program, which aims to achieve broad county-level effects by coalescing community agencies to serve early-intervention goals…
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Garchitorena, Andrés; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Guegan, Jean-Francois; Texier, Gaëtan; Bellanger, Martine; Bonds, Matthew; Roche, Benjamin
2015-01-01
Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) have received increasing attention in recent years by the global heath community, as they cumulatively constitute substantial burdens of disease as well as barriers for economic development. A number of common tropical diseases such as malaria, hookworm or schistosomiasis have well-documented economic impacts. However, much less is known about the population-level impacts of diseases that are rare but associated with high disability burden, which represent a great number of tropical diseases. Using an individual-based model of Buruli ulcer (BU), we demonstrate that, through feedbacks between health and economic status, such NTDs can have a significant impact on the economic structure of human populations even at low incidence levels. While average wealth is only marginally affected by BU, the economic conditions of certain subpopulations are impacted sufficiently to create changes in measurable population-level inequality. A reduction of the disability burden caused by BU can thus maximize the economic growth of the poorest subpopulations and reduce significantly the economic inequalities introduced by the disease in endemic regions. PMID:26538592
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Genetic Diversity of Plasmodium falciparum in Haiti: Insights from Microsatellite Markers
Carter, Tamar E.; Malloy, Halley; Existe, Alexandre; Memnon, Gladys; St. Victor, Yves; Okech, Bernard A.; Mulligan, Connie J.
2015-01-01
Hispaniola, comprising Haiti and the Dominican Republic, has been identified as a candidate for malaria elimination. However, incomplete surveillance data in Haiti hamper efforts to assess the impact of ongoing malaria control interventions. Characteristics of the genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum populations can be used to assess parasite transmission, which is information vital to evaluating malaria elimination efforts. Here we characterize the genetic diversity of P. falciparum samples collected from patients at seven sites in Haiti using 12 microsatellite markers previously employed in population genetic analyses of global P. falciparum populations. We measured multiplicity of infections, level of genetic diversity, degree of population geographic substructure, and linkage disequilibrium (defined as non-random association of alleles from different loci). For low transmission populations like Haiti, we expect to see few multiple infections, low levels of genetic diversity, high degree of population structure, and high linkage disequilibrium. In Haiti, we found low levels of multiple infections (12.9%), moderate to high levels of genetic diversity (mean number of alleles per locus = 4.9, heterozygosity = 0.61), low levels of population structure (highest pairwise Fst = 0.09 and no clustering in principal components analysis), and moderate linkage disequilibrium (ISA = 0.05, P<0.0001). In addition, population bottleneck analysis revealed no evidence for a reduction in the P. falciparum population size in Haiti. We conclude that the high level of genetic diversity and lack of evidence for a population bottleneck may suggest that Haiti’s P. falciparum population has been stable and discuss the implications of our results for understanding the impact of malaria control interventions. We also discuss the relevance of parasite population history and other host and vector factors when assessing transmission intensity from genetic diversity data. PMID:26462203
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Baltar, M.; Keeley, Jon E.; Schoenberg, F.P.
2013-01-01
The extent to which the apparent increase in wildfire incidence and burn area in California from 1990 to 2006 is affected by population and temperature increases is examined. Using generalized linear models with random effects, we focus on the estimated impacts of increases in mean daily temperatures and populations in different counties on wildfire in those counties, after essentially controlling for the overall differences between counties in their overall mean temperatures and populations. We find that temperature increase appears to have a significant positive impact on both total burn area and number of observed wildfires. Population growth appears to have a much less pronounced impact on total burn area than do annual temperature increases, and population growth appears to be negatively correlated with the total number of observed wildfires. These effects are especially pronounced in the winter season and in Southern California counties.
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Sound and human impacts on beluga whales in Cook Inlet, Alaska
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Blevins, Rachael E.
Cook Inlet beluga whales (CIBs) are a geographically and genetically isolated population residing in Cook Inlet, Alaska year round. The population declined by approximately 50% between 1994 and 1998 and was listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act in 2008. The original decline was attributed to overharvest; however, the population has failed to rebound despite the virtual absence of harvest since 1998. This suggests that other factors, such as declining prey availability, increased predation, contaminants, disease, climate change, catastrophic events, habitat loss, unauthorized take, and underwater noise pollution, may be limiting the population's recovery. The goal of this dissertation research was to study the potential impacts of underwater noise on the CIB population. The objective of Chapter 1 was to study CIB acoustic behavior to gain a greater understanding of how CIBs utilize sound. The objective of Chapter 2 was to measure underwater sound levels in Cook Inlet to understand the background noise levels with which CIBs must cope. The objective of Chapter 3 was to document reactions of CIBs to noise disturbance utilizing local ecological knowledge to allow insight into the potential impacts of noise on beluga behavior. The results of Chapter 1 showed that belugas exhibit significant seasonal and spatial variation in calling behavior which suggested differences in habitat usage or differences in the surrounding environment, including background noise levels. The results of Chapter 2 showed that root mean square sound pressure levels exhibited high variation with the highest levels recorded in the 100 Hz frequency band. The seasonal differences in sound levels observed in this study were likely due to greater small vessel traffic and oil and gas development activities in the summer than the winter. In Chapter 3, participants reported observations of CIBs exhibiting avoidance reactions to noise sources including boats, planes, explosions, pile driving, construction, and cars. The results of this chapter showed that noise is perceived to alter beluga behavior and possibly beluga distribution in Cook Inlet. This dissertation research showed that underwater noise has the potential to affect CIBs, however the cost of this impact remains unclear and warrants further study. In light of the lack of support for many of the proposed factors limiting the population and the need for further research for many of these factors, it would be valuable to consider the cumulative effects of these multiple stressors. While their potential impact may be small individually, when combined, these factors may have a synergistic and significant impact on individual whales and, in turn, on the CIB population. Management of cumulative effects may be necessary to ensure the recovery of this endangered population.
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Cloutier, D; Kanashiro, M; Ciampi, A Y; Schoen, D J
2007-02-01
Selective logging may impact patterns of genetic diversity within populations of harvested forest tree species by increasing distances separating conspecific trees, and modifying physical and biotic features of the forest habitat. We measured levels of gene diversity, inbreeding, pollen dispersal and spatial genetic structure (SGS) of an Amazonian insect-pollinated Carapa guianensis population before and after commercial selective logging. Similar levels of gene diversity and allelic richness were found before and after logging in both the adult and the seed generations. Pre- and post-harvest outcrossing rates were high, and not significantly different from one another. We found no significant levels of biparental inbreeding either before or after logging. Low levels of pollen pool differentiation were found, and the pre- vs. post-harvest difference was not significant. Pollen dispersal distance estimates averaged between 75 m and 265 m before logging, and between 76 m and 268 m after logging, depending on the value of tree density and the dispersal model used. There were weak and similar levels of differentiation of allele frequencies in the adults and in the pollen pool, before and after logging occurred, as well as weak and similar pre- and post-harvest levels of SGS among adult trees. The large neighbourhood sizes estimated suggest high historical levels of gene flow. Overall our results indicate that there is no clear short-term genetic impact of selective logging on this population of C. guianensis.
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Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts
Browne, Mark Anthony; Underwood, A. J.; Chapman, M. G.; Williams, Rob; Thompson, Richard C.; van Franeker, Jan A.
2015-01-01
Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to disease and mortality, and (ii) debris is considered non-hazardous by policy-makers, possibly because individuals can be injured or removed from populations and assemblages without ecological impacts. We reviewed the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to assemblages and populations. Using plastic, we show microplastics reduce the ‘health’, feeding, growth and survival of ecosystem engineers. Larger debris alters assemblages because fishing-gear and tyres kill animals and damage habitat-forming plants, and because floating bottles facilitate recruitment and survival of novel taxa. Where ecological linkages are not known, we show how to establish hypothetical links by synthesizing studies to assess the likelihood of impacts. We also consider how population models examine ecological linkages and guide management of ecological impacts. We show that by focusing on linkages to ecological impacts rather than the presence of debris and its sublethal impacts, we could reduce threats posed by debris. PMID:25904661
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Luquet, E; David, P; Lena, J-P; Joly, P; Konecny, L; Dufresnes, C; Perrin, N; Plenet, S
2011-05-01
Quantifying the impacts of inbreeding and genetic drift on fitness traits in fragmented populations is becoming a major goal in conservation biology. Such impacts occur at different levels and involve different sets of loci. Genetic drift randomly fixes slightly deleterious alleles leading to different fixation load among populations. By contrast, inbreeding depression arises from highly deleterious alleles in segregation within a population and creates variation among individuals. A popular approach is to measure correlations between molecular variation and phenotypic performances. This approach has been mainly used at the individual level to detect inbreeding depression within populations and sometimes at the population level but without consideration about the genetic processes measured. For the first time, we used in this study a molecular approach considering both the interpopulation and intrapopulation level to discriminate the relative importance of inbreeding depression vs. fixation load in isolated and non-fragmented populations of European tree frog (Hyla arborea), complemented with interpopulational crosses. We demonstrated that the positive correlations observed between genetic heterozygosity and larval performances on merged data were mainly caused by co-variations in genetic diversity and fixation load among populations rather than by inbreeding depression and segregating deleterious alleles within populations. Such a method is highly relevant in a conservation perspective because, depending on how populations lose fitness (inbreeding vs. fixation load), specific management actions may be designed to improve the persistence of populations. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Populations potentially exposed to traffic-related air pollution in seven world cities.
Su, Jason G; Apte, Joshua S; Lipsitt, Jonah; Garcia-Gonzales, Diane A; Beckerman, Bernardo S; de Nazelle, Audrey; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Jerrett, Michael
2015-05-01
Traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) likely exerts a large burden of disease globally, and in many places, traffic is increasing dramatically. The impact, however, of urban form on the portion of population potentially exposed to TRAP remains poorly understood. In this study, we estimate portions of population potentially exposed to TRAP across seven global cities of various urban forms. Data on population distributions and road networks were collected from the best available sources in each city and from remote sensing analysis. Using spatial mapping techniques, we first overlaid road buffers onto population data to estimate the portions of population potentially exposed for four plausible impact zones. Based on a most likely scenario with impacts from highways up to 300meters and major roadways up to 50meters, we identified that the portions of population potentially exposed for the seven cities ranged from 23 to 96%. High-income North American cities had the lowest potential exposure portions, while those in Europe had the highest. Second, we adjusted exposure zone concentration levels based on a literature suggested multiplier for each city using corresponding background concentrations. Though Beijing and Mexico City did not have the highest portion of population exposure, those in their exposure zones had the highest levels of exposure. For all seven cities, the portion of population potentially exposed was positively correlated with roadway density and, to a lesser extent, with population density. These analyses suggest that urban form may influence the portion of population exposed to TRAP and vehicle emissions and other factors may influence the exposure levels. Greater understanding of urban form and other factors influencing potential exposure to TRAP may help inform interventions that protect public health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a nationwide study.
Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B; Benros, Michael E; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben B
2014-03-01
Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established a population-based cohort of 2,486,646million persons born in Denmark between 1 January 1955 and 31 December 1993 using Danish registers. We found that PAR associated with urban birth was 11.73%; PAR associated with one, respectively 2, parent(s) with schizophrenia was 2.67% and 0.12%. PAR associated with second-generation immigration was 0.70%. Highest cumulative incidence (CI=20.23%; 95% CI=18.10-22.62) was found in male offspring of 2 parents with schizophrenia. Cumulative incidences for male offspring or female offspring of a parent with schizophrenia were 9.53% (95% CI=7.71-11.79), and 4.89%, (95% CI 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches and seek to achieve higher predictive power on the individual level and higher population impact. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives
The value of models that link organism-level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERA) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism-level en...
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A Cohort Study of the Patterns of Third Molar Impaction in Panoramic Radiographs in Saudi Population
Al-Dajani, Mahmoud; Abouonq, Anas O; Almohammadi, Turki A; Alruwaili, Mohammed K; Alswilem, Rayan O; Alzoubi, Ibrahim A
2017-01-01
Objectives: To evaluate the epidemiological patterns of third molar impaction in a cohort of patients living in the north of Saudi Arabia. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study comprised of analysing 2550 Orthopantomograms (OPGs) belonging to patients who attended Aljouf University College of Dentistry between September 2013 and December 2015. OPGs were examined to determine the frequency of third molar impaction, their levels of eruption and angulations. Mixed effects logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate adjusted odds ratios. Data were weighted by age and sex based on population regional estimates. Results: 1551 patients (60.8%) with a mean age of 33.5 years-old (95%CI: 32.9 to 34) demonstrated 2650 impacted third molars. Third molars were more likely present in patients aged from 20 to 39 years-old (p<0.001); and in mandible more than maxilla (p<0.001). It showed highest vertical impaction and higher impaction rate in mandible than maxilla. Level A impaction was the most common among other levels by 1365 (53.5%). Vertical impaction was the most common pattern (1354 patients; 53.1%). Mesioangular impaction ranked second in mandible, while distoangular impaction ranked second in maxilla. There was no statistically significant difference between males and females concerning impaction frequency, depth levels and angulations. Conclusion: Impacted third molars is still a public health concern among youth and young adults. Vertically impacted mandibular third molars with their occlusal plane at the same level as the occlusal plane of adjacent tooth is the most prevalent pattern of third molar impaction in the northern region of Saudi Arabia. PMID:29387281
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Hall, Ailsa J; McConnell, Bernie J; Schwacke, Lori H; Ylitalo, Gina M; Williams, Rob; Rowles, Teri K
2018-02-01
The potential impact of exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) on the health and survival of cetaceans continues to be an issue for conservation and management, yet few quantitative approaches for estimating population level effects have been developed. An individual based model (IBM) for assessing effects on both calf survival and immunity was developed and tested. Three case study species (bottlenose dolphin, humpback whale and killer whale) in four populations were taken as examples and the impact of varying levels of PCB uptake on achievable population growth was assessed. The unique aspect of the model is its ability to evaluate likely effects of immunosuppression in addition to calf survival, enabling consequences of PCB exposure on immune function on all age-classes to be explored. By incorporating quantitative tissue concentration-response functions from laboratory animal model species into an IBM framework, population trajectories were generated. Model outputs included estimated concentrations of PCBs in the blubber of females by age, which were then compared to published empirical data. Achievable population growth rates were more affected by the inclusion of effects of PCBs on immunity than on calf survival, but the magnitude depended on the virulence of any subsequent encounter with a pathogen and the proportion of the population exposed. Since the starting population parameters were from historic studies, which may already be impacted by PCBs, the results should be interpreted on a relative rather than an absolute basis. The framework will assist in providing quantitative risk assessments for populations of concern. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Akatsuka, Hiroshi
2009-04-15
Population densities of excited states of argon atoms are theoretically examined for ionizing argon plasma in a state of nonequilibrium under atmospheric pressure from the viewpoint of elementary processes with collisional radiative model. The dependence of excited state populations on the electron and gas temperatures is discussed. Two electron density regimes are found, which are distinguished by the population and depopulation mechanisms for the excited states in problem. When the electron impact excitation frequency for the population or depopulation is lower than the atomic impact one, the electron density of the plasma is considered as low to estimate the populationmore » and depopulation processes. Some remarkable characteristics of population and depopulation mechanisms are found for the low electron density atmospheric plasma, where thermal relaxation by atomic collisions becomes the predominant process within the group of close-energy states in the ionizing plasma of atmospheric pressure, and the excitation temperature is almost the same as the gas temperature. In addition to the collisional relaxation by argon atoms, electron impact excitation from the ground state is also an essential population mechanism. The ratios of population density of the levels pairs, between which exists a large energy gap, include information on the electron collisional kinetics. For high electron density, the effect of atomic collisional relaxation becomes weak. For this case, the excitation mechanism is explained as electron impact ladderlike excitation similar to low-pressure ionizing plasma, since the electron collision becomes the dominant process for the population and depopulation kinetics.« less
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Ackleh, Azmy S; Chiquet, Ross A; Ma, Baoling; Tang, Tingting; Caswell, Hal; Veprauskas, Amy; Sidorovskaia, Natalia
2017-08-01
Mathematical models are essential for combining data from multiple sources to quantify population endpoints. This is especially true for species, such as marine mammals, for which data on vital rates are difficult to obtain. Since the effects of an environmental disaster are not fixed, we develop time-varying (nonautonomous) matrix population models that account for the eventual recovery of the environment to the pre-disaster state. We use these models to investigate how lethal and sublethal impacts (in the form of reductions in the survival and fecundity, respectively) affect the population's recovery process. We explore two scenarios of the environmental recovery process and include the effect of demographic stochasticity. Our results provide insights into the relationship between the magnitude of the disaster, the duration of the disaster, and the probability that the population recovers to pre-disaster levels or a biologically relevant threshold level. To illustrate this modeling methodology, we provide an application to a sperm whale population. This application was motivated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that has impacted a wide variety of species populations including oysters, fish, corals, and whales.
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Population structure and life history strategies are determinants of how populations respond to stressor-induced impairments in individual-level responses, but a consistent and holistic analysis has not been reported. Effects on population growth rate were modeled using five theo...
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The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.
2013-11-01
The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water-stressed regions is almost 20 times lower than that in the lower latitudes. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario, and the scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective in reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.
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Garchitorena, Andrés; Ngonghala, Calistus N; Guegan, Jean-Francois; Texier, Gaëtan; Bellanger, Martine; Bonds, Matthew; Roche, Benjamin
2015-11-07
Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) have received increasing attention in recent years by the global heath community, as they cumulatively constitute substantial burdens of disease as well as barriers for economic development. A number of common tropical diseases such as malaria, hookworm or schistosomiasis have well-documented economic impacts. However, much less is known about the population-level impacts of diseases that are rare but associated with high disability burden, which represent a great number of tropical diseases. Using an individual-based model of Buruli ulcer (BU), we demonstrate that, through feedbacks between health and economic status, such NTDs can have a significant impact on the economic structure of human populations even at low incidence levels. While average wealth is only marginally affected by BU, the economic conditions of certain subpopulations are impacted sufficiently to create changes in measurable population-level inequality. A reduction of the disability burden caused by BU can thus maximize the economic growth of the poorest subpopulations and reduce significantly the economic inequalities introduced by the disease in endemic regions. © 2015 The Author(s).
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DeFilippis, Andrew P; Harper, Charles R; Cotsonis, George A; Jacobson, Terry A
2009-01-01
We previously reported a >50% increase in mean plasma eicosapentaenoic acid levels in a general medicine clinic population after supplementation with alpha-linolenic acid. In the current analysis, we evaluate the variability of changes in eicosapentaenoic acid levels among individuals supplemented with alpha-linolenic acid and evaluated the impact of baseline plasma fatty acids levels on changes in eicosapentaenoic acid levels in these individuals. Changes in eicosapentaenoic acid levels among individuals supplemented with alpha-linolenic acid ranged from a 55% decrease to a 967% increase. Baseline plasma fatty acids had no statistically significant effect on changes in eicosapentaenoic levels acid after alpha-linolenic acid supplementation. Changes in eicosapentaenoic acid levels varied considerably in a general internal medicine clinic population supplemented with alpha-linolenic acid. Factors that may impact changes in plasma eicosapentaenoic acid levels after alpha-linolenic acid supplementation warrant further study.
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Alrashidi, Monif; Shobrak, Mohammed; Al-Eissa, Mohammed S; Székely, Tamás
2012-07-01
One of the expected effects of the global warming is changing coastal habitats by accelerating the rate of sea level rise. Coastal habitats support large number of marine and wetland species including shorebirds (plovers, sandpipers and allies). In this study, we investigate how coastal habitats may be impacted by sea level rise in the Farasan Islands, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We use Kentish plover Charadrius alexandrinus - a common coastal breeding shorebird - as an ecological model species to predict the influence of sea level rise. We found that any rise of sea level is likely to inundate 11% of Kentish plover nests. In addition, 5% of the coastal areas of Farasan Islands, which support 26% of Kentish plover nests, will be flooded, if sea level rises by one metre. Our results are constrained by the availability of data on both elevation and bird populations. Therefore, we recommend follow-up studies to model the impacts of sea level rise using different elevation scenarios, and the establishment of a monitoring programme for breeding shorebirds and seabirds in Farasan Islands to assess the impact of climate change on their populations.
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Sivle, Lise Doksæter; Kvadsheim, Petter Helgevold; Ainslie, Michael
2016-01-01
Effects of noise on fish populations may be predicted by the population consequence of acoustic disturbance (PCAD) model. We have predicted the potential risk of population disturbance when the highest sound exposure level (SEL) at which adult herring do not respond to naval sonar (SEL(0)) is exceeded. When the population density is low (feeding), the risk is low even at high sonar source levels and long-duration exercises (>24 h). With densely packed populations (overwintering), a sonar exercise might expose the entire population to levels >SEL(0) within a 24-h exercise period. However, the disturbance will be short and the response threshold used here is highly conservative. It is therefore unlikely that naval sonar will significantly impact the herring population.
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Moe, S Jannicke; De Schamphelaere, Karel; Clements, William H; Sorensen, Mary T; Van den Brink, Paul J; Liess, Matthias
2013-01-01
Increased temperature and other environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) have documented impacts on many species (e.g., polar bears, amphibians, coral reefs) as well as on ecosystem processes and species interactions (e.g., the timing of predator–prey interactions). A challenge for ecotoxicologists is to predict how joint effects of climatic stress and toxicants measured at the individual level (e.g., reduced survival and reproduction) will be manifested at the population level (e.g., population growth rate, extinction risk) and community level (e.g., species richness, food-web structure). The authors discuss how population- and community-level responses to toxicants under GCC are likely to be influenced by various ecological mechanisms. Stress due to GCC may reduce the potential for resistance to and recovery from toxicant exposure. Long-term toxicant exposure can result in acquired tolerance to this stressor at the population or community level, but an associated cost of tolerance may be the reduced potential for tolerance to subsequent climatic stress (or vice versa). Moreover, GCC can induce large-scale shifts in community composition, which may affect the vulnerability of communities to other stressors. Ecological modeling based on species traits (representing life-history traits, population vulnerability, sensitivity to toxicants, and sensitivity to climate change) can be a promising approach for predicting combined impacts of GCC and toxicants on populations and communities. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:49–61. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23147390
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Kumar, V Raj; Yadav, Priya; Kahsu, Efrem; Girkar, Farhana; Chakraborty, Rajnish
2017-02-01
The most commonly impacted tooth in the oral cavity is the mandibular third molar. Various etiologic factors have been suggested for impacted mandibular third molars. The pattern and prevalence of impacted mandibular third molars vary with different population and region. This study throws light on the prevalence and pattern of impacted mandibular third molars in Eritrea, East Africa. This is the first reported study regarding the same from Eritrea. To assess the prevalence and pattern of impacted mandibu-lar third molars in the population of Eritrea, East Africa by conducting a retrospective study from January 2009 to January 2014. This study was conducted in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Orotta School of Medicine and Dental Medicine and the Orotta Referral Medical and Surgical Hospital, Asmara, Eritrea. A total of 1,813 clinical and radiographic records [orthopantomograms] were assessed and 276 cases were selected for the study as per the inclusion criteria. They were evaluated for the frequency among the various age groups, gender and region along with the sides affected, angulation and level of impaction. The presence of systemic conditions and associated pathologies was also assessed according to the type of impaction. The average age of these patients in the study was found to be 30 years, with the 20 to 30 years age group being the most affected (67.4%). Females (53.3%) were affected more than the males (46.7%). People from the Asmara region showed significantly more prevalence (79.7%) than the adjoining areas (20.3%). Mesioangular impaction was the most common angulation with a definite relationship to the age groups (p = 0.032). The level of impaction had no significant relationship to the age groups, gender, or region, although class I position A was found to be the most common type. Mesioangular class I position A impac-tion showed an apparent relationship with underlying systemic conditions, but it was statistically insignificant. Mesioangular impaction was found to be associated with the most number of pathologies (p = 0.001). The prevalence of mandibular impaction was less in Eritrea (15.2%) compared with other populations. This study provides useful baseline data for the prevalence and pattern of mandibular impaction in the Eritrean population. This study throws light on the pattern, type, and frequency of mandibular impacted teeth as per age, sex, and region among the population of Eritrea.
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Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?
Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.
2017-01-01
Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist for many plant species. Modelers should exploit these data to predict the impacts of environmental change.
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Platt, Jonathan M; Keyes, Katherine M; Galea, Sandro
2017-12-01
Maximizing both efficiency and equity are core considerations for population health. These considerations can result in tension in population health science as we seek to improve overall population health while achieving equitable health distributions within populations. Limited work has explored empirically the consequences of different population health intervention strategies on the burden of disease and on within- and between-group differences in disease. To address this gap, we compared the impact of four simulated interventions using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In particular, we focus on assessing how population and high-risk primary prevention and population and high-risk secondary interventions efforts to reduce smoking behavior influence systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hypertension, and how such strategies influence inequalities in SBP by income. The greatest reductions in SBP mean and standard deviation resulted from the population secondary prevention. High-risk primary and secondary prevention and population secondary prevention programs all yielded substantial reductions in hypertension prevalence. The effect of population primary prevention did little to decrease population SBP mean and standard deviation, as well as hypertension prevalence. Both high-risk strategies had a larger impact in the low-income population, leading to the greatest narrowing the income-related gap in disease. The population prevention strategies had a larger impact in the high-income population. Population health approaches must consider the potential impact on both the whole population and also on those with different levels of risk for disease within a population, including those in under-represented or under-served groups.
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Deering, Kathleen N; Vickerman, P; Pickles, M; Moses, S; Blanchard, J F; Ramesh, B M; Isac, S; Boily, M-C
2013-02-01
Quantifying sexual activity of sub-populations with high-risk sexual behaviour is important in understanding HIV epidemiology. This study examined inconsistency of seven outcomes measuring self-reported clients per month (CPM) of female sex workers (FSWs) in southern India and implications for individual/population-level analysis. Multivariate negative binomial regression was used to compare key social/environmental factors associated with each outcome. A transmission dynamics model was used to assess the impact of differences between outcomes on population-level FSW/client HIV prevalence. Outcomes based on 'clients per last working day' produced lower estimates than those based on 'clients per typical day'. Although the outcomes were strongly correlated, their averages differed by approximately two-fold (range 39.0-79.1 CPM). The CPM measure chosen did not greatly influence standard epidemiological 'risk factor' analysis. Differences across outcomes influenced HIV prevalence predictions. Due to this uncertainty, we recommend basing population-based estimates on the range of outcomes, particularly when assessing the impact of interventions.
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Muli, Elliud; Patch, Harland; Frazier, Maryann; Frazier, James; Torto, Baldwyn; Baumgarten, Tracey; Kilonzo, Joseph; Kimani, James Ng'ang'a; Mumoki, Fiona; Masiga, Daniel; Tumlinson, James; Grozinger, Christina
2014-01-01
In East Africa, honey bees (Apis mellifera) provide critical pollination services and income for small-holder farmers and rural families. While honey bee populations in North America and Europe are in decline, little is known about the status of honey bee populations in Africa. We initiated a nationwide survey encompassing 24 locations across Kenya in 2010 to evaluate the numbers and sizes of honey bee colonies, assess the presence of parasites (Varroa mites and Nosema microsporidia) and viruses, identify and quantify pesticide contaminants in hives, and assay for levels of hygienic behavior. Varroa mites were present throughout Kenya, except in the remote north. Levels of Varroa were positively correlated with elevation, suggesting that environmental factors may play a role in honey bee host-parasite interactions. Levels of Varroa were negatively correlated with levels of hygienic behavior: however, while Varroa infestation dramatically reduces honey bee colony survival in the US and Europe, in Kenya Varroa presence alone does not appear to impact colony size. Nosema apis was found at three sites along the coast and one interior site. Only a small number of pesticides at low concentrations were found. Of the seven common US/European honey bee viruses, only three were identified but, like Varroa, were absent from northern Kenya. The number of viruses present was positively correlated with Varroa levels, but was not correlated with colony size or hygienic behavior. Our results suggest that Varroa, the three viruses, and Nosema have been relatively recently introduced into Kenya, but these factors do not yet appear to be impacting Kenyan bee populations. Thus chemical control for Varroa and Nosema are not necessary for Kenyan bees at this time. This study provides baseline data for future analyses of the possible mechanisms underlying resistance to and the long-term impacts of these factors on African bee populations.
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Frazier, James; Torto, Baldwyn; Baumgarten, Tracey; Kilonzo, Joseph; Kimani, James Ng'ang'a; Mumoki, Fiona; Masiga, Daniel; Tumlinson, James; Grozinger, Christina
2014-01-01
In East Africa, honey bees (Apis mellifera) provide critical pollination services and income for small-holder farmers and rural families. While honey bee populations in North America and Europe are in decline, little is known about the status of honey bee populations in Africa. We initiated a nationwide survey encompassing 24 locations across Kenya in 2010 to evaluate the numbers and sizes of honey bee colonies, assess the presence of parasites (Varroa mites and Nosema microsporidia) and viruses, identify and quantify pesticide contaminants in hives, and assay for levels of hygienic behavior. Varroa mites were present throughout Kenya, except in the remote north. Levels of Varroa were positively correlated with elevation, suggesting that environmental factors may play a role in honey bee host-parasite interactions. Levels of Varroa were negatively correlated with levels of hygienic behavior: however, while Varroa infestation dramatically reduces honey bee colony survival in the US and Europe, in Kenya Varroa presence alone does not appear to impact colony size. Nosema apis was found at three sites along the coast and one interior site. Only a small number of pesticides at low concentrations were found. Of the seven common US/European honey bee viruses, only three were identified but, like Varroa, were absent from northern Kenya. The number of viruses present was positively correlated with Varroa levels, but was not correlated with colony size or hygienic behavior. Our results suggest that Varroa, the three viruses, and Nosema have been relatively recently introduced into Kenya, but these factors do not yet appear to be impacting Kenyan bee populations. Thus chemical control for Varroa and Nosema are not necessary for Kenyan bees at this time. This study provides baseline data for future analyses of the possible mechanisms underlying resistance to and the long-term impacts of these factors on African bee populations. PMID:24740399
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Driving forces behind the Chinese public's demand for improved environmental safety.
Wen, Ting; Wang, Jigan; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun
2017-12-15
Over the past decades, the public demand for improved environmental safety keeps increasing in China. This study aims to assess the driving forces behind the increasing public demand for improved environmental safety using a provincial and multi-year (1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014) panel data and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The potential driving forces investigated included population size, income levels, degrees of urbanization, and educational levels. Results show that population size and educational level are positively (P<0.01) associated with public demand for improved environmental safety. No significant impact on demand was found due to the degree of urbanization. For the impact due to income level, an inverted U-shaped curve effect with the turning point of ~140,000 CNY GDP per capita is indicated. Since per capita GDP of 2015 in China was approximately 50,000 CNY and far from the turning point, the public demand for improved environmental safety will continue rising in the near future. To meet the increasing public demand for improved environmental safety, proactive and risk prevention based environmental management systems coupled with effective environmental risk communication should be established. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts.
Browne, Mark Anthony; Underwood, A J; Chapman, M G; Williams, Rob; Thompson, Richard C; van Franeker, Jan A
2015-05-22
Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to disease and mortality, and (ii) debris is considered non-hazardous by policy-makers, possibly because individuals can be injured or removed from populations and assemblages without ecological impacts. We reviewed the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to assemblages and populations. Using plastic, we show microplastics reduce the 'health', feeding, growth and survival of ecosystem engineers. Larger debris alters assemblages because fishing-gear and tyres kill animals and damage habitat-forming plants, and because floating bottles facilitate recruitment and survival of novel taxa. Where ecological linkages are not known, we show how to establish hypothetical links by synthesizing studies to assess the likelihood of impacts. We also consider how population models examine ecological linkages and guide management of ecological impacts. We show that by focusing on linkages to ecological impacts rather than the presence of debris and its sublethal impacts, we could reduce threats posed by debris. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
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Andrew M. Liebhold; Derek M. Johnson; Ottar N. Bj& #248rnstad
2006-01-01
Explanations for the ubiquitous presence of spatially synchronous population dynamics have assumed that density-dependent processes governing the dynamics of local populations are identical among disjunct populations, and low levels of dispersal or small amounts of regionalized stochasticity ("Moran effect") can act to synchronize populations. In this study...
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Credible ecological risk assessments often need to include analysis of population-level impacts. In the present study, a predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) co...
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Population genetic structure of moose (Alces alces) of South-central Alaska
Wilson, Robert E.; McDonough, John T.; Barboza, Perry S.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Farley, Sean D.
2015-01-01
The location of a population can influence its genetic structure and diversity by impacting the degree of isolation and connectivity to other populations. Populations at range margins are often thought to have less genetic variation and increased genetic structure, and a reduction in genetic diversity can have negative impacts on the health of a population. We explored the genetic diversity and connectivity between 3 peripheral populations of moose (Alces alces) with differing potential for connectivity to other areas within interior Alaska. Populations on the Kenai Peninsula and from the Anchorage region were found to be significantly differentiated (FST= 0.071, P < 0.0001) with lower levels of genetic diversity observed within the Kenai population. Bayesian analyses employing assignment methodologies uncovered little evidence of contemporary gene flow between Anchorage and Kenai, suggesting regional isolation. Although gene flow outside the peninsula is restricted, high levels of gene flow were detected within the Kenai that is explained by male-biased dispersal. Furthermore, gene flow estimates differed across time scales on the Kenai Peninsula which may have been influenced by demographic fluctuations correlated, at least in part, with habitat change.
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Relationship between exploitation, oscillation, MSY and extinction.
Ghosh, Bapan; Kar, T K; Legovic, T
2014-10-01
We give answers to two important problems arising in current fisheries: (i) how maximum sustainable yield (MSY) policy is influenced by the initial population level, and (ii) how harvesting, oscillation and MSY are related to each other in prey-predator systems. To examine the impact of initial population on exploitation, we analyze a single species model with strong Allee effect. It is found that even when the MSY exists, the dynamic solution may not converge to the equilibrium stock if the initial population level is higher but near the critical threshold level. In a prey-predator system with Allee effect in the prey species, the initial population does not have such important impact neither on MSY nor on maximum sustainable total yield (MSTY). However, harvesting the top predator may cause extinction of all species if odd number of trophic levels exist in the ecosystem. With regard to the second problem, we study two prey-predator models and establish that increasing harvesting effort either on prey, predator or both prey and predator destroys previously existing oscillation. Moreover, equilibrium stock both at MSY and MSTY level is stable. We also discuss the validity of found results to other prey-predator systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Could Seals Prevent Cod Recovery in the Baltic Sea?
MacKenzie, Brian R.; Eero, Margit; Ojaveer, Henn
2011-01-01
Fish populations are increasingly affected by multiple human and natural impacts including exploitation, eutrophication, habitat alteration and climate change. As a result many collapsed populations may have to recover in ecosystems whose structure and functioning differ from those in which they were formerly productive and supported sustainable fisheries. Here we investigate how a cod (Gadus morhua) population in the Baltic Sea whose biomass was reduced due to a combination of high exploitation and deteriorating environmental conditions might recover and develop in the 21st century in an ecosystem that likely will change due to both the already started recovery of a cod predator, the grey seal Halichoerus grypus, and projected climate impacts. Simulation modelling, assuming increased seal predation, fishing levels consistent with management plan targets and stable salinity, shows that the cod population could reach high levels well above the long-term average. Scenarios with similar seal and fishing levels but with 15% lower salinity suggest that the Baltic will still be able to support a cod population which can sustain a fishery, but biomass and yields will be lower. At present knowledge of cod and seal interactions, seal predation was found to have much lower impact on cod recovery, compared to the effects of exploitation and salinity. These results suggest that dual management objectives (recovery of both seal and cod populations) are realistic but success in achieving these goals will also depend on how climate change affects cod recruitment. PMID:21573062
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Dose as a Tool for Planning and Implementing Community-Based Health Strategies.
Kuo, Elena S; Harner, Lisa T; Frost, Madeline C; Cheadle, Allen; Schwartz, Pamela M
2018-05-01
A major challenge in community-based health promotion is implementing strategies that could realistically improve health at the population level. Population dose methodology was developed to help understand the combined impact of multiple strategies on population-level health behaviors. This paper describes one potential use of dose: as a tool for working collaboratively with communities to increase impact when planning and implementing community-level initiatives. Findings are presented from interviews conducted with 11 coordinators who used dose for planning and implementing local efforts with community coalitions. During early-stage planning, dose was used as a tool for strategic planning, and as a framework to build consensus among coalition partners. During implementation, a dose lens was used to revise strategies to increase their reach (the number of people exposed to the intervention) or strength (the relative change in behavior for each exposed person) to create population-level impact. A case study is presented, illustrating how some community coalitions and evaluators currently integrate dose into the planning and implementation of place-based healthy eating and active living strategies. Finally, a planning checklist was developed for program coordinators and evaluators. This article is part of a supplement entitled Building Thriving Communities Through Comprehensive Community Health Initiatives, which is sponsored by Kaiser Permanente, Community Health. Copyright © 2018 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hayes, T. B.
2001-12-01
In recent laboratory studies, we showed that atrazine, a common herbicide, can inhibit metamorphosis, produce hermaphrodites, and inhibit male development in amphibians. In part, these effects are due to a decrease in androgen levels. These effects occur at ecologically relevant low doses (0.1 ppb), and the effective levels are below the current drinking level standard and below contaminant levels found even in rainfall in some areas. Thus, the impact of this widespread compound on free-ranging amphibians is a concern. We undertook a large-scale study to examine atrazine levels in a variety of habitats (temporary pools, rivers, lakes and ponds, and field runoff) across the US where atrazine is used and areas that report no atrazine use. Also, we collected amphibians at each site to examine them for developmental abnormalities. These ongoing studies will help determine the extent of atrazine contamination and its potential impact on amphibian populations. The concern for atrazine's impact is increased, because the mechanism through which the compound produces this effect (inhibition of androgen production) is commonly observed in fish, reptiles and mammals in addition to amphibians, although amphibians appear to sensitive at much lower doses. Thus, effects on amphibians may indicate a much broader impact.
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A Penny and a Half and a Pool: Lead Poisoning and Its Impact on Academic Achievement
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Gehrman, Matthew Paul
2011-01-01
Lead is a neurotoxin that has been shown to have a long and lasting impact on the brains, bodies, and behaviors of those who are poisoned. It also has a greater presence in communities with high levels of poverty and minority populations. Compounded over time, the effects of lead poisoning, even at low levels of exposure, impact a child's…
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Head impact exposure in youth football.
Daniel, Ray W; Rowson, Steven; Duma, Stefan M
2012-04-01
The head impact exposure for athletes involved in football at the college and high school levels has been well documented; however, the head impact exposure of the youth population involved with football has yet to be investigated, despite its dramatically larger population. The objective of this study was to investigate the head impact exposure in youth football. Impacts were monitored using a custom 12 accelerometer array equipped inside the helmets of seven players aged 7-8 years old during each game and practice for an entire season. A total of 748 impacts were collected from the 7 participating players during the season, with an average of 107 impacts per player. Linear accelerations ranged from 10 to 100 g, and the rotational accelerations ranged from 52 to 7694 rad/s(2). The majority of the high level impacts occurred during practices, with 29 of the 38 impacts above 40 g occurring in practices. Although less frequent, youth football can produce high head accelerations in the range of concussion causing impacts measured in adults. In order to minimize these most severe head impacts, youth football practices should be modified to eliminate high impact drills that do not replicate the game situations.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Shores, Kenneth; Steinberg, Matthew P.
2017-01-01
The Great Recession was the most severe economic downturn in the United States since the Great Depression. Using newly available population-level achievement data from the Stanford Education Data Archive (SEDA), we estimate the impact of the Great Recession on the math and English language arts (ELA) achievement of all grade 3-8 students in the…
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Unappreciated epidemiology: the churn effect in a regional HIV care programme.
Gill, M J; Krentz, H B
2009-08-01
High levels of geographic mobility in and out of HIV care centres (i.e. the churn effect) can disrupt the continuity of patient care, misalign prevention services, impact local prevalence data perturbing optimal allocation of resources, and contribute to logical challenges in repeated transfer of health records. We report on the clinical, demographic, and administrative impact of high population turnover within HIV populations.
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The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.
2012-08-01
The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.
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Iwamura, Takuya; Possingham, Hugh P; Chadès, Iadine; Minton, Clive; Murray, Nicholas J; Rogers, Danny I; Treml, Eric A; Fuller, Richard A
2013-06-22
Sea-level rise (SLR) will greatly alter littoral ecosystems, causing habitat change and loss for coastal species. Habitat loss is widely used as a measurement of the risk of extinction, but because many coastal species are migratory, the impact of habitat loss will depend not only on its extent, but also on where it occurs. Here, we develop a novel graph-theoretic approach to measure the vulnerability of a migratory network to the impact of habitat loss from SLR based on population flow through the network. We show that reductions in population flow far exceed the proportion of habitat lost for 10 long-distance migrant shorebirds using the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. We estimate that SLR will inundate 23-40% of intertidal habitat area along their migration routes, but cause a reduction in population flow of up to 72 per cent across the taxa. This magnifying effect was particularly strong for taxa whose migration routes contain bottlenecks-sites through which a large fraction of the population travels. We develop the bottleneck index, a new network metric that positively correlates with the predicted impacts of habitat loss on overall population flow. Our results indicate that migratory species are at greater risk than previously realized.
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Rimbach, Rebecca; Link, Andrés; Heistermann, Michael; Gómez-Posada, Carolina; Galvis, Nelson; Heymann, Eckhard W.
2013-01-01
Habitat fragmentation and anthropogenic disturbances are of major concern to the conservation of endangered species because of their potentially negative impact on animal populations. Both processes can impose physiological stress (i.e. increased glucocorticoid output) on animals, and chronically elevated stress levels can have detrimental effects on the long-term viability of animal populations. Here, we investigated the effect of fragment size and human impact (logging and hunting pressure) on glucocorticoid levels of two sympatric Neotropical primates, the red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) and the critically endangered brown spider monkey (Ateles hybridus). These two species have been reported to contrast strongly in their ability to cope with anthropogenic disturbances. We collected faecal samples from eight spider monkey groups and 31 howler monkey groups, living in seven and 10 different forest fragments in Colombia, respectively. We measured faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (FGCM) levels in both species using previously validated methods. Surprisingly, fragment size did not influence FGCM levels in either species. Spider monkeys showed elevated FGCMs in fragments with the highest level of human impact, whereas we did not find this effect in howler monkeys. This suggests that the two species differ in their physiological responsiveness to anthropogenic changes, further emphasizing why brown spider monkeys are at higher extinction risk than red howler monkeys. If these anthropogenic disturbances persist in the long term, elevated FGCM levels can potentially lead to a state of chronic stress, which might limit the future viability of populations. We propose that FGCM measurements should be used as a tool to monitor populations living in disturbed areas and to assess the success of conservation strategies, such as corridors connecting forest fragments. PMID:27293615
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Impact of Non-Native Birds on Native Ecosystems: A Global Analysis.
Martin-Albarracin, Valeria L; Amico, Guillermo C; Simberloff, Daniel; Nuñez, Martin A
2015-01-01
Introduction and naturalization of non-native species is one of the most important threats to global biodiversity. Birds have been widely introduced worldwide, but their impacts on populations, communities, and ecosystems have not received as much attention as those of other groups. This work is a global synthesis of the impact of nonnative birds on native ecosystems to determine (1) what groups, impacts, and locations have been best studied; (2) which taxonomic groups and which impacts have greatest effects on ecosystems, (3) how important are bird impacts at the community and ecosystem levels, and (4) what are the known benefits of nonnative birds to natural ecosystems. We conducted an extensive literature search that yielded 148 articles covering 39 species belonging to 18 families -18% of all known naturalized species. Studies were classified according to where they were conducted: Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, North America, South America, Islands of the Indian, of the Pacific, and of the Atlantic Ocean. Seven types of impact on native ecosystems were evaluated: competition, disease transmission, chemical, physical, or structural impact on ecosystem, grazing/ herbivory/ browsing, hybridization, predation, and interaction with other non-native species. Hybridization and disease transmission were the most important impacts, affecting the population and community levels. Ecosystem-level impacts, such as structural and chemical impacts were detected. Seven species were found to have positive impacts aside from negative ones. We provide suggestions for future studies focused on mechanisms of impact, regions, and understudied taxonomic groups.
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Honig, Aaron; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Supan, John
2014-01-01
Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and host vegetation productivity. As such, ecosystem level changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences, making it important to better understand the population ecology of native bivalves. In order to determine potential impacts of shifting salinity and temperature regimes along the northern Gulf of Mexico, the seasonal timing of gametogenesis in the Gulf estuarine ribbed mussel, Geukensia granossisima, was examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana, from July 2011 through October 2012. Ten mussels were randomly sampled monthly from low (~ 5) and high (~25) salinity marsh sites in southeastern Louisiana, and histologically processed to determine the seasonal progression of gametogenesis. Peak ripeness occurred at both sites between April and September, was positively correlated with temperature, and coincided with seasonal shifts in salinity. Mussels located in lower salinity waters demonstrated a shorter period of gametogenesis, and lower rates of ripeness indicating that changes in salinity regimes may impact long-term population dynamics.
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Stuebe, Alison M; Jegier, Briana J; Schwarz, Eleanor Bimla; Green, Brittany D; Reinhold, Arnold G; Colaizy, Tarah T; Bogen, Debra L; Schaefer, Andrew J; Jegier, Jamus T; Green, Noah S; Bartick, Melissa C
2017-12-01
We sought to determine the impact of changes in breastfeeding rates on population health. We used a Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the population-level changes in disease burden associated with marginal changes in rates of any breastfeeding at each month from birth to 12 months of life, and in rates of exclusive breastfeeding from birth to 6 months of life. We used these marginal estimates to construct an interactive online calculator (available at www.usbreastfeeding.org/saving-calc ). The Institutional Review Board of the Cambridge Health Alliance exempted the study. Using our interactive online calculator, we found that a 5% point increase in breastfeeding rates was associated with statistically significant differences in child infectious morbidity for the U.S. population, including otitis media (101,952 cases, 95% confidence interval [CI] 77,929-131,894 cases) and gastrointestinal infection (236,073 cases, 95% CI 190,643-290,278 cases). Associated medical cost differences were $31,784,763 (95% CI $24,295,235-$41,119,548) for otitis media and $12,588,848 ($10,166,203-$15,479,352) for gastrointestinal infection. The state-level impact of attaining Healthy People 2020 goals varied by population size and current breastfeeding rates. Modest increases in breastfeeding rates substantially impact healthcare costs in the first year of life.
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Lu, Xia; Wang, Hongxia; Li, Yan; Liu, Baozhong
2016-02-01
The aim of our work is to evaluate the impact of mass selection on genetic structure in artificially closed populations of the clam Meretrix petechialis. In the present study, we performed mass selection over four generations (from 2004 to 2010) on two clam populations [shell features of purple lines (SP) and black dots (SB)] and analyzed their temporal genetic variation and structure using microsatellite makers. The two closed populations originated from the natural Shandong population (SD); thus, a natural SD population (10SD) was used to detect the current genetic structure after 6 years of natural selection. The results showed that the genetic diversity of the four generations of SB and SP was gradually reduced but remained at relatively high levels (SB, A = 18.9.4-16.8, Ho = 0.7389-0.6971, and He = 0.8897-0.8591; SP, A = 20.0-17.8, Ho = 0.7512-0.7043, and He = 0.8938-0.8625), which has not been reduced compared with that of the 10SD population (A = 17.8, Ho = 0.6803, and He = 0.8302). The Ne estimates for the two populations were almost at the same levels as the actual numbers of parental individuals. In addition, a low inbreeding coefficient was detected in the two populations (SB, 0.00201-0.00639; SP, 0.00176-0.00541). Based on the results, the present mass selection has not made a large impact on the population genetic structure of the closed populations. The present investigation provides important information for the development of management strategies for genetic breeding of the clam.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Havens, K. E.; Kane, A.
2016-02-01
In 2012 the oyster population in Apalachicola Bay, Florida suddenly collapsed. The catastrophic event, which had severe impacts on the local economy, coincided with two years of record low rainfall over the watershed and the lowest river flows into the estuary in 89 years. Elevated salinity in the bay allowed marine predators, parasites and pathogens from the Gulf of Mexico to increase in abundance and impact the oyster population. Population modeling indicated that the proximal cause of the collapse was high juvenille mortality. Ecosystem modeling (using ECOSPACE) indicated that because the system also had considerably degraded habitat, recovery of oyster harvest to pre-impact levels would require both (a) substantially reduced harvest pressure for a period of two years and (b) restoration of at least 1,000 acres of oyster reef. Given that in the future climate change may result both in greater saltwater inputs (due to sea level rise) and increased frequency and/or intensity of droughts, the effects observed in Apalachicola Bay can provide a 'lens' into the future in regard to estuarine impacts.
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We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five...
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Busch, Malte, E-mail: der.malte.busch@gmail.com; Garthe, Stefan
Assessment of the displacement impacts of offshore wind farms on seabirds is impeded by a lack of evidence regarding species-specific reactions to developed sites and the potential ecological consequences faced by displaced individuals. In this study, we present a method that makes best use of the currently limited understanding of displacement impacts. The combination of a matrix table displaying the full range of potential displacement and mortality levels together with seasonal potential biological removal (PBR) assessments provides a tool that increases confidence in the conclusions of impact assessments. If unrealistic displacement levels and/or mortality rates are required to equal ormore » approach seasonal PBRs, this gives an indication of the likeliness of adverse impacts on the assessed population. This approach is demonstrated by assessing the displacement impacts of an offshore wind farm cluster in the German North Sea on the local common guillemot (Uria aalge) population. - Highlights: • A novel approach for assessing displacement impacts of offshore wind farms on seabirds is presented making best use of limited data • A displacement matrix approach is linked with PBR analysis to increased confidence in assessment conclusions drawn • A case example demonstrates the applicability of the methods described in practice.« less
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O'Brien, Susan H; Cook, Aonghais S C P; Robinson, Robert A
2017-10-01
Assessing the potential impact of additional mortality from anthropogenic causes on animal populations requires detailed demographic information. However, these data are frequently lacking, making simple algorithms, which require little data, appealing. Because of their simplicity, these algorithms often rely on implicit assumptions, some of which may be quite restrictive. Potential Biological Removal (PBR) is a simple harvest model that estimates the number of additional mortalities that a population can theoretically sustain without causing population extinction. However, PBR relies on a number of implicit assumptions, particularly around density dependence and population trajectory that limit its applicability in many situations. Among several uses, it has been widely employed in Europe in Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), to examine the acceptability of potential effects of offshore wind farms on marine bird populations. As a case study, we use PBR to estimate the number of additional mortalities that a population with characteristics typical of a seabird population can theoretically sustain. We incorporated this level of additional mortality within Leslie matrix models to test assumptions within the PBR algorithm about density dependence and current population trajectory. Our analyses suggest that the PBR algorithm identifies levels of mortality which cause population declines for most population trajectories and forms of population regulation. Consequently, we recommend that practitioners do not use PBR in an EIA context for offshore wind energy developments. Rather than using simple algorithms that rely on potentially invalid implicit assumptions, we recommend use of Leslie matrix models for assessing the impact of additional mortality on a population, enabling the user to explicitly define assumptions and test their importance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Fine-scale patterns of population stratification confound rare variant association tests.
O'Connor, Timothy D; Kiezun, Adam; Bamshad, Michael; Rich, Stephen S; Smith, Joshua D; Turner, Emily; Leal, Suzanne M; Akey, Joshua M
2013-01-01
Advances in next-generation sequencing technology have enabled systematic exploration of the contribution of rare variation to Mendelian and complex diseases. Although it is well known that population stratification can generate spurious associations with common alleles, its impact on rare variant association methods remains poorly understood. Here, we performed exhaustive coalescent simulations with demographic parameters calibrated from exome sequence data to evaluate the performance of nine rare variant association methods in the presence of fine-scale population structure. We find that all methods have an inflated spurious association rate for parameter values that are consistent with levels of differentiation typical of European populations. For example, at a nominal significance level of 5%, some test statistics have a spurious association rate as high as 40%. Finally, we empirically assess the impact of population stratification in a large data set of 4,298 European American exomes. Our results have important implications for the design, analysis, and interpretation of rare variant genome-wide association studies.
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Begun, James W; Kahn, Linda M; Cunningham, Brooke A; Malcolm, Jan K; Potthoff, Sandra
2017-12-13
Many hospitals in the United States are exploring greater investment in community health activities that address upstream causes of poor health. Develop and apply a measure to categorize and estimate the potential impact of hospitals' community health activities on population health and equity. We propose a scale of potential impact on population health and equity, based on the cliff analogy developed by Jones and colleagues. The scale is applied to the 317 activities reported in the community health needs assessment implementation plan reports of 23 health care organizations in the Minneapolis-St Paul, Minnesota metropolitan area in 2015. Using a 5-point ordinal scale, we assigned a score of potential impact on population health and equity to each community health activity. A majority (50.2%) of health care organizations' community health activities are classified as addressing social determinants of health (level 4 on the 5-point scale), though very few (5.4%) address structural causes of health equity (level 5 on the 5-point scale). Activities that score highest on potential impact fall into the topic categories of "community health and connectedness" and "healthy lifestyles and wellness." Lower-scoring activities focus on sick or at-risk individuals, such as the topic category of "chronic disease prevention, management, and screening." Health care organizations in the Minneapolis-St Paul metropolitan area vary substantially in the potential impact of their aggregated community health activities. Hospitals can be significant contributors to investment in upstream community health programs. This article provides a scale that can be used not only by hospitals but by other health care and public health organizations to better align their community health strategies, investments, and partnerships with programming and policies that address the foundational causes of population health and equity within the communities they serve.
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Energy sustainability: consumption, efficiency, and ...
One of the critical challenges in achieving sustainability is finding a way to meet the energy consumption needs of a growing population in the face of increasing economic prosperity and finite resources. According to ecological footprint computations, the global resource consumption began exceeding planetary supply in 1977 and by 2030, global energy demand, population, and gross domestic product are projected to greatly increase over 1977 levels. With the aim of finding sustainable energy solutions, we present a simple yet rigorous procedure for assessing and counterbalancing the relationship between energy demand, environmental impact, population, GDP, and energy efficiency. Our analyses indicated that infeasible increases in energy efficiency (over 100 %) would be required by 2030 to return to 1977 environmental impact levels and annual reductions (2 and 3 %) in energy demand resulted in physical, yet impractical requirements; hence, a combination of policy and technology approaches is needed to tackle this critical challenge. This work emphasizes the difficulty in moving toward energy sustainability and helps to frame possible solutions useful for policy and management. Based on projected energy consumption, environmental impact, human population, gross domestic product (GDP), and energy efficiency, for this study, we explore the increase in energy-use efficiency and the decrease in energy use intensity required to achieve sustainable environmental impact le
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McKay, Virginia R; Hoffer, Lee D; Combs, Todd B; Margaret Dolcini, M
2018-06-05
Sustaining evidence-based interventions (EBIs) is an ongoing challenge for dissemination and implementation science in public health and social services. Characterizing the relationship among human resource capacity within an agency and subsequent population outcomes is an important step to improving our understanding of how EBIs are sustained. Although human resource capacity and population outcomes are theoretically related, examining them over time within real-world experiments is difficult. Simulation approaches, especially agent-based models, offer advantages that complement existing methods. We used an agent-based model to examine the relationships among human resources, EBI delivery, and population outcomes by simulating provision of an EBI through a hypothetical agency and its staff. We used data from existing studies examining a widely implemented HIV prevention intervention to inform simulation design, calibration, and validity. Once we developed a baseline model, we used the model as a simulated laboratory by systematically varying three human resource variables: the number of staff positions, the staff turnover rate, and timing in training. We tracked the subsequent influence on EBI delivery and the level of population risk over time to describe the overall and dynamic relationships among these variables. Higher overall levels of human resource capacity at an agency (more positions) led to more extensive EBI delivery over time and lowered population risk earlier in time. In simulations representing the typical human resource investments, substantial influences on population risk were visible after approximately 2 years and peaked around 4 years. Human resources, especially staff positions, have an important impact on EBI sustainability and ultimately population health. A minimum level of human resources based on the context (e.g., size of the initial population and characteristics of the EBI) is likely needed for an EBI to have a meaningful impact on population outcomes. Furthermore, this model demonstrates how ABMs may be leveraged to inform research design and assess the impact of EBI sustainability in practice.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Finley, Ashley; McNair, Tia
2013-01-01
This publication presents findings from a national study conducted by AAC&U researchers to investigate the impact of engagement in high-impact practices on traditionally underserved populations (defined here as first-generation, minority, transfer, and low-income students).The mixed-method analysis includes student-level data on engaged…
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Applications of Human Factors in Space
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rajulu, Sudhakar; Margerum, Sarah
2008-01-01
The main question for human factors practitioners is to determine if the user population can be accommodated within a design. Given the wide range of variables feeding into a design, just one of which is human factors, oftentimes designers will have restrictions that may potentially impact the level of accommodation. This paper focuses on two case studies where there have been impacts at the design level that may be detrimental to the ability of the design to meet certain criteria. The studies use novel approaches to determine what, if any, changes in population accommodation levels have occurred and what factors are important when manipulating the design in the future. The results of these studies provide a backbone for future analyses when working with design considerations.
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County Level Assessment of Impaired Waters and Gastrointestinal Infections
Water quality data are measured at a watershed level and health data are organized at different levels of aggregation therefore, assessing the population-level impact of water quality on health can be difficult. To address this discrepancy and enable the consideration of water ...
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REVIEW OF SIMULATION METHODS FOR SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT
Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...
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Health Impacts of the Great Recession: A Critical Review
Goldman-Mellor, Sidra; Falconi, April; Downing, Janelle
2016-01-01
The severity, sudden onset, and multipronged nature of the Great Recession (2007–2009) provided a unique opportunity to examine the health impacts of macroeconomic downturn. We comprehensively review empirical literature examining the relationship between the Recession and mental and physical health outcomes in developed nations. Overall, studies reported detrimental impacts of the Recession on health, particularly mental health. Macro- and individual-level employment- and housing-related sequelae of the Recession were associated with declining fertility and self-rated health, and increasing morbidity, psychological distress, and suicide, although traffic fatalities and population-level alcohol consumption declined. Health impacts were stronger among men and racial/ethnic minorities. Importantly, strong social safety nets in some European countries appear to have buffered those populations from negative health effects. This literature, however, still faces multiple methodological challenges, and more time may be needed to observe the Recession’s full health impact. We conclude with suggestions for future work in this field. PMID:27239427
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bowen, E. E.; Martin, P. A.; Schuble, T. J.; Yan, E.; Demissie, Y.
2010-12-01
Agricultural production imposes significant environmental stress on the landscape, both in the intensity and extent of agricultural activities. Among the most significant impacts, agriculture dominates the natural reactive nitrogen cycle, with excess reactive nitrogen leading to the degraded quality of inland and coastal waters. In the U.S., policymakers and stakeholders nationwide continue to debate strategies for decreasing environmental degradation from agricultural lands. Such strategies aim to optimize the balance among competing demands for food, fuel and ecosystem services. One such strategy increasingly discussed in the national debate is that of localizing food production around urban areas, developing what some have recently called “foodsheds”. However, the environmental impacts of localizing food production around population centers are not well-understood given the hard-to-generalize variety seen in management practices currently employed among local farms marketing food crops directly to consumers. As a first, landscape level study of potential impacts from scaling up this type of agriculture, we use the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to quantify environmental impacts from developing foodsheds for all population centers in the Upper Mississippi river basin. Specifically, we focus on nutrient cycling and water quality impacts determining direct greenhouse gas emissions and changes to nutrient runoff from increased food production in this watershed. We investigate a variety of scenarios in which food production is scaled up to the regional level using different types of farm management practices, ranging from conventional production of fruits and vegetables, to production of these products from small-scale, diversified systems integrating conservation easements. In addition to impacts on nutrient cycling and water quality, we also characterize relative levels of productivity in conjunction with overall demand for food associated with population centers to address one aspect of socio-economic concern.
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An argument for renewed focus on epidemiology for public health
Rogawski, Elizabeth T.; Gray, Christine L.; Poole, Charles
2016-01-01
Purpose While epidemiology has an indispensable role in serving public health, the relative emphasis of applications of epidemiology often tend toward individual-level medicine over public health in terms of resources and impact. Methods We make distinctions between public health and medical applications of epidemiology to raise awareness among epidemiologists, many of whom came to the field with public health in mind. We discuss reasons for the overemphasis on medical epidemiology and suggest ways to counteract these incentives. Results Public health epidemiology informs interventions that are applied to populations or that confer benefits beyond the individual, while medical epidemiology informs interventions that improve the health of treated individuals. Available resources, new biomedical technologies, and existing epidemiologic methods favor medical applications of epidemiology. Focus on public health impact and methods suited to answer public health questions can create better balance and promote population-level improvements in public health. Conclusions By deliberately reflecting on research motivations and long-term goals, we hope the distinctions presented here will facilitate critical discussion and a greater consciousness of our potential impact on both individual and population-level health. Renewed intentions towards public health can help epidemiologists navigate potential projects and ultimately contribute to an epidemiology of consequence. PMID:27659585
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Wolff, Julia K; Beyer, Ann-Kristin; Wurm, Susanne; Nowossadeck, Sonja; Wiest, Maja
2018-01-18
The importance of self-perceptions of aging (SPA) for health and longevity is well documented. Comparably little is known about factors that contribute to SPA. Besides individual factors, the context a person lives in may shape SPA. Research has so far focused on country-level differences in age stereotypes, indicating that rapid population aging accompanies more negative age stereotypes. The present study expands previous research by investigating the impact of district-specific population aging within one country on different facets of SPA. Based on a large representative survey in Germany, the study investigates changes in SPA as ongoing development as well as the SPA of physical loss over a 12-year period in adults aged 40+. The study uses several indicators of population aging (e.g., population development, average age, greying index), to identify four clusters differing in their pace of population aging. Based on three-level latent change models, these clusters were compared in their impact on changes in SPA. Compared to districts with an average rate of population aging, the study shows that persons living in regions with a fast population aging rate (C1) hold more negative SPA in both facets (ps = .01). Districts with slow population aging (C2) have significantly higher SPA ongoing development (p = .03). The study underlines the importance for regional differences in population aging on the development of SPA. In particular, societies should be aware that fast population aging may result in more negative SPA. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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Estimating Impaired Waters on a County Level for Public Health Analysis
Assessing the population-level impact of water quality on health can be difficult. Water quality data are measured at a watershed level and health data are organized at different levels of aggregation. To address this discrepancy and enable the consideration of water quality for ...
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System impact research – increasing public health and health care system performance
Malmivaara, Antti
2016-01-01
Abstract Background Interventions directed to system features of public health and health care should increase health and welfare of patients and population. Aims To build a new framework for studies aiming to assess the impact of public health or health care system, and to consider the role of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and of Benchmarking Controlled Trials (BCTs). Methods The new concept is partly based on the author's previous paper on the Benchmarking Controlled Trial. The validity and generalizability considerations were based on previous methodological studies on RCTs and BCTs. Results The new concept System Impact Research (SIR) covers all the studies which aim to assess the impact of the public health system or of the health care system on patients or on population. There are two kinds of studies in System Impact Research: Benchmarking Controlled Trials (observational) and Randomized Controlled Trials (experimental). The term impact covers in particular accessibility, quality, effectiveness, safety, efficiency, and equality. Conclusions System Impact Research – creating the scientific basis for policy decision making - should be given a high priority in medical, public health and health economic research, and should also be used for improving performance. Leaders at all levels of health and social care can use the evidence from System Impact Research for the benefit of patients and population.Key messagesThe new concept of SIR is defined as a research field aiming at assessing the impacts on patients and on populations of features of public health and health and social care systems or of interventions trying to change these features.SIR covers all features of public health and health and social care system, and actions upon these features. The term impact refers to all effects caused by the public health and health and social care system or parts of it, with particular emphasis on accessibility, quality, effectiveness, adverse effects, efficiency, and equality of services.SIR creates the scientific basis for policy decisions. Leaders at all levels of health and social care can use the evidence from SIR for the benefit of the patients and the population. PMID:26977939
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System impact research - increasing public health and health care system performance.
Malmivaara, Antti
2016-01-01
Interventions directed to system features of public health and health care should increase health and welfare of patients and population. To build a new framework for studies aiming to assess the impact of public health or health care system, and to consider the role of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and of Benchmarking Controlled Trials (BCTs). The new concept is partly based on the author's previous paper on the Benchmarking Controlled Trial. The validity and generalizability considerations were based on previous methodological studies on RCTs and BCTs. The new concept System Impact Research (SIR) covers all the studies which aim to assess the impact of the public health system or of the health care system on patients or on population. There are two kinds of studies in System Impact Research: Benchmarking Controlled Trials (observational) and Randomized Controlled Trials (experimental). The term impact covers in particular accessibility, quality, effectiveness, safety, efficiency, and equality. System Impact Research - creating the scientific basis for policy decision making - should be given a high priority in medical, public health and health economic research, and should also be used for improving performance. Leaders at all levels of health and social care can use the evidence from System Impact Research for the benefit of patients and population. Key messages The new concept of SIR is defined as a research field aiming at assessing the impacts on patients and on populations of features of public health and health and social care systems or of interventions trying to change these features. SIR covers all features of public health and health and social care system, and actions upon these features. The term impact refers to all effects caused by the public health and health and social care system or parts of it, with particular emphasis on accessibility, quality, effectiveness, adverse effects, efficiency, and equality of services. SIR creates the scientific basis for policy decisions. Leaders at all levels of health and social care can use the evidence from SIR for the benefit of the patients and the population.
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Pardo, Deborah; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Weimerskirch, Henri; Barbraud, Christophe
2017-06-19
Climate changes include concurrent changes in environmental mean, variance and extremes, and it is challenging to understand their respective impact on wild populations, especially when contrasted age-dependent responses to climate occur. We assessed how changes in mean and standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST), frequency and magnitude of warm SST extreme climatic events (ECE) influenced the stochastic population growth rate log( λ s ) and age structure of a black-browed albatross population. For changes in SST around historical levels observed since 1982, changes in standard deviation had a larger (threefold) and negative impact on log( λ s ) compared to changes in mean. By contrast, the mean had a positive impact on log( λ s ). The historical SST mean was lower than the optimal SST value for which log( λ s ) was maximized. Thus, a larger environmental mean increased the occurrence of SST close to this optimum that buffered the negative effect of ECE. This 'climate safety margin' (i.e. difference between optimal and historical climatic conditions) and the specific shape of the population growth rate response to climate for a species determine how ECE affect the population. For a wider range in SST, both the mean and standard deviation had negative impact on log( λ s ), with changes in the mean having a greater effect than the standard deviation. Furthermore, around SST historical levels increases in either mean or standard deviation of the SST distribution led to a younger population, with potentially important conservation implications for black-browed albatrosses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).
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Cabrera-Leon, Andrés; Cantero-Braojos, Miguel Ángel
2017-11-16
To assess the impact of disabling chronic pain (DCP) on quality of life, work, consumption of medication and usage of health services. Cross-sectional population study with face-to-face interview. Andalusian Health Survey (2011 edition). 6,507 people over the age of 16 (p=q=0.5; confidence level=95%; sampling error=1.49, design effect=1.52). Not applicable. Dependent variable: DCP: population limited in their activity by any of the CP specified in the survey. quality of life, absence from work, consumption of medication and utilization of health services. Compared to a population without CP, DCP impact is 6 points less on the mental quality of life and 12 points on the physical one, medication consumption is triple, health services utilization is almost double, and long absence from work is triple. On the other hand, a population with nondisabling chronic pain (nDCP) presents similar results to a population without CP. We have considered DCP as another CP category because of its huge impact, as is shown in our study, on the study variables. On the contrary, the population with nDCP does not obtain significant impact differences when compared to the population without CP. Therefore, we believe that Primary Care and Public Health should lead different prevention strategies for DCP as well as for the identification of the nDCP population to decrease its possible deterioration towards DCP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
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Zhang, Lai; Andersen, Ken H; Dieckmann, Ulf; Brännström, Åke
2015-09-07
We investigate how four types of interference competition - which alternatively affect foraging, metabolism, survival, and reproduction - impact the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations. Even though all four types of interference competition reduce population biomass, interference competition at intermediate intensity sometimes significantly increases the abundance of adult individuals and the population׳s reproduction rate. We find that foraging and metabolic interference evolutionarily favor smaller maturation size when interference is weak and larger maturation size when interference is strong. The evolutionary response to survival interference and reproductive interference is always larger maturation size. We also investigate how the four types of interference competition impact the evolutionary dynamics and resultant diversity and trophic structure of size-structured communities. Like other types of trait-mediated competition, all four types of interference competition can induce disruptive selection and thus promote initial diversification. Even though foraging interference and reproductive interference are more potent in promoting initial diversification, they catalyze the formation of diverse communities with complex trophic structure only at high levels of interference intensity. By contrast, survival interference does so already at intermediate levels, while reproductive interference can only support relatively smaller communities with simpler trophic structure. Taken together, our results show how the type and intensity of interference competition jointly affect coexistence patterns in structured population models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Templeton, A R; Robertson, R J; Brisson, J; Strasburg, J
2001-05-08
Humans affect biodiversity at the genetic, species, community, and ecosystem levels. This impact on genetic diversity is critical, because genetic diversity is the raw material of evolutionary change, including adaptation and speciation. Two forces affecting genetic variation are genetic drift (which decreases genetic variation within but increases genetic differentiation among local populations) and gene flow (which increases variation within but decreases differentiation among local populations). Humans activities often augment drift and diminish gene flow for many species, which reduces genetic variation in local populations and prevents the spread of adaptive complexes outside their population of origin, thereby disrupting adaptive processes both locally and globally within a species. These impacts are illustrated with collared lizards (Crotaphytus collaris) in the Missouri Ozarks. Forest fire suppression has reduced habitat and disrupted gene flow in this lizard, thereby altering the balance toward drift and away from gene flow. This balance can be restored by managed landscape burns. Some have argued that, although human-induced fragmentation disrupts adaptation, it will also ultimately produce new species through founder effects. However, population genetic theory and experiments predict that most fragmentation events caused by human activities will facilitate not speciation, but local extinction. Founder events have played an important role in the macroevolution of certain groups, but only when ecological opportunities are expanding rather than contracting. The general impact of human activities on genetic diversity disrupts or diminishes the capacity for adaptation, speciation, and macroevolutionary change. This impact will ultimately diminish biodiversity at all levels.
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Kulhánová, Ivana; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Judge, Ken; Looman, Caspar W N; Eikemo, Terje A; Bopp, Matthias; Deboosere, Patrick; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Rychtaříková, Jitka; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Menvielle, Gwenn; Mackenbach, Johan P
2014-09-01
Although higher education has been associated with lower mortality rates in many studies, the effect of potential improvements in educational distribution on future mortality levels is unknown. We therefore estimated the impact of projected increases in higher education on mortality in European populations. We used mortality and population data according to educational level from 21 European populations and developed counterfactual scenarios. The first scenario represented the improvement in the future distribution of educational attainment as expected on the basis of an assumption of cohort replacement. We estimated the effect of this counterfactual scenario on mortality with a 10-15-year time horizon among men and women aged 30-79 years using a specially developed tool based on population attributable fractions (PAF). We compared this with a second, upward levelling scenario in which everyone has obtained tertiary education. The reduction of mortality in the cohort replacement scenario ranged from 1.9 to 10.1% for men and from 1.7 to 9.0% for women. The reduction of mortality in the upward levelling scenario ranged from 22.0 to 57.0% for men and from 9.6 to 50.0% for women. The cohort replacement scenario was estimated to achieve only part (4-25% (men) and 10-31% (women)) of the potential mortality decrease seen in the upward levelling scenario. We concluded that the effect of on-going improvements in educational attainment on average mortality in the population differs across Europe, and can be substantial. Further investments in education may have important positive side-effects on population health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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This report uses results from a previous report titled Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change on Regional U.S. Air Quality: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Ground-Level Ozone, a number of high-resolution, spatially explicit population projections developed ...
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Farley, David R
2010-09-07
A model has been developed to calculate the ground state rotational populations of homonuclear diatomic molecules in kinetic gases, including the effects of electron-impact excitation, wall collisions, and gas feed rate. The equations are exact within the accuracy of the cross sections used and of the assumed equilibrating effect of wall collisions. It is found that the inflow of feed gas and equilibrating wall collisions can significantly affect the rotational distribution in competition with nonequilibrating electron-impact effects. The resulting steady-state rotational distributions are generally Boltzmann for N≥3, with a rotational temperature between the wall and feed gas temperatures. The N=0,1,2 rotational level populations depend sensitively on the relative rates of electron-impact excitation versus wall collision and gas feed rates.
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The noise impact of proposed runway alternatives at Craig Airport
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Deloach, R.
1982-01-01
Four proposed runway expansion alternatives at Craig Airport in Jacksonville, Florida have been assessed with respect to their forecasted noise impact in the year 2005. The assessment accounts for population distributions around the airport and human subjective response to noise, as well as the distribution of noise levels in the surrounding community (footprints). The impact analysis was performed using the Airport-noise Levels and Annoyance Model (ALAMO), an airport community response model recently developd at Langley Research Center.
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Engeman, Richard; Hershberger, Troy; Orzell, Steve; Felix, Rodney; Killian, Gary; Woolard, John; Cornman, Jon; Romano, David; Huddleston, Chet; Zimmerman, Pat; Barre, Chris; Tillman, Eric; Avery, Michael
2014-06-01
Feral swine were targeted for control at Avon Park Air Force Range in south-central Florida to avert damage to sensitive wetland habitats on the 40,000-ha base. We conducted a 5-year study to assess impacts from control to this population that had been recreationally hunted for many years. Control was initiated in early 2009. The feral swine population was monitored from 2008 to 2012 using a passive tracking index (PTI) during the dry and wet seasons and using recreational hunter take rates from the dry season. All three indices showed substantial feral swine declines after implementing control, with indices leveling for the final two study years. Military missions and recreational hunting seasons impacted temporal and spatial consistency of control application, thereby limiting further impacts of control efforts on the feral swine population. The PTI was also able to monitor coyotes, another invasive species on the base, and detect Florida black bear and Florida panther, species of particular concern.
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Walsh, Rachael K.; Aguilar, Cristobal L.; Facchinelli, Luca; Valerio, Laura; Ramsey, Janine M.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Gould, Fred
2013-01-01
Transgenic strains of Aedes aegypti have been engineered to help control transmission of dengue virus. Although resources have been invested in developing the strains, we lack data on the ecology of mosquitoes that could impact the success of this approach. Although studies of intra-specific competition have been conducted using Ae. aegypti larvae, none of these studies examine mixed age cohorts at densities that occur in the field, with natural nutrient levels. Experiments were conducted in Mexico to determine the impact of direct and delayed density dependence on Ae. aegypti populations. Natural water, food, and larval densities were used to estimate the impacts of density dependence on larval survival, development, and adult body size. Direct and delayed density-dependent factors had a significant impact on larval survival, larval development, and adult body size. These results indicate that control methods attempting to reduce mosquito populations may be counteracted by density-dependent population regulation. PMID:23669230
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Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.
2015-01-01
Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
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Austerity and the new age of population health?
Green, Mark A
2018-02-01
The Great Recession of 2007-2008 saw the largest period of economic downturn since the Second World War or the Great Depression of the 1930s. Recessions, however, tend not to have a significant impact on population health. Rather it is how society and governments respond to a recession that has a larger impact on their populations. The dominant political response to the Great Recession was the introduction of austerity programmes aimed at reducing the size of the state. In this Commentary, I briefly review the state of evidence on the changes in population health during austerity. Although the negative impact of austerity on overall population health has been well documented across Europe, there remains a paucity of evidence on within-country differences in health. The slowing down of improvements in life expectancy, correlated to the level of austerity, raises uncomfortable questions as to whether we are beginning to transition from the era of consistently improving population health to a new age characterised by an instability in population health largely dictated by the social and political determinants of health.
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[The impact of public health system on mortality of malignant neoplasms in Voronezh oblast].
Chesnokov, P E; Kuralesina, E N
2013-01-01
The total mortality and population mortality of main classes of diseases and single causes of death are to be considered in operative and strategic planning of development of national economy and industry In the Russian Federation, the decrease of mortality of neoplasms including malignant ones up to 190 per 100 000 of population in 2020 will be one of indicators of effectiveness of implementation of the State program of development of public health in the Russian Federation. The study was organized to determine the possibility to impact the level and dynamics of mortality of malignant neoplasms by means of variation of managed factors on the basis of indicators of activity of public health system. The main indicators of population health and activity of health institutions of Voronezh oblast were analyzed. The methods of mathematical statistics, management theory, system analysis and mathematical modeling were applied. To study the impact of managed factors on mortality of malignant neoplasms on the territory of Voronezh oblast the analysis of correlation interdependency was applied concerning 162 factors characterizing condition and activity of public health system according oblast districts and level of mortality of malignant neoplasms among adult population. The combinations of factors were calculated using the model to determine the level of prospective mortality to come in certain time after implementation of activities changing the given levels of factors. The data concerning qualitative interrelationship of indicators of condition and functioning of network of health institutions with indicators of level and dynamics of mortality of malignant neoplasms can be applied to model and forecast and to evaluate the current and forthcoming situation according indicators of mentioned mortality on the territory of Voronezh oblast in development of comprehensive plan of activities targeted to decreasing of this indicator.
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Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.
Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David
2011-02-01
Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.
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Analyzing the impact of public transit usage on obesity.
She, Zhaowei; King, Douglas M; Jacobson, Sheldon H
2017-06-01
The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of county-level public transit usage on obesity prevalence in the United States and assess the potential for public transit usage as an intervention for obesity. This study adopts an instrumental regression approach to implicitly control for potential selection bias due to possible differences in commuting preferences among obese and non-obese populations. United States health data from the 2009 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and transportation data from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey are aggregated and matched at the county level. County-level public transit accessibility and vehicle ownership rates are chosen as instrumental variables to implicitly control for unobservable commuting preferences. The results of this instrumental regression analysis suggest that a one percent increase in county population usage of public transit is associated with a 0.221 percent decrease in county population obesity prevalence at the α=0.01 statistical significance level, when commuting preferences, amount of non-travel physical activity, education level, health resource, and distribution of income are fixed. Hence, this study provides empirical support for the effectiveness of encouraging public transit usage as an intervention strategy for obesity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Airport noise impact reduction through operations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Deloach, R.
1981-01-01
The airport-noise levels and annoyance model (ALAMO) developed at NASA Langley Research Center is comprised of a system of computer programs which is capable of quantifying airport community noise impact in terms of noise level, population distribution, and human subjective response to noise. The ALAMO can be used to compare the noise impact of an airport's current operating scenario with the noise impact which would result from some proposed change in airport operations. The relative effectiveness of number of noise-impact reduction alternatives is assessed for a major midwest airport. Significant reductions in noise impact are predicted for certain noise abatement strategies while others are shown to result in relatively little noise relief.
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Bone lead levels in an environmentally exposed elderly population in shanghai, China.
Specht, Aaron J; Lin, Yanfen; Xu, Jian; Weisskopf, Marc; Nie, Linda H
2018-06-01
This study looked at measurements of lead (Pb) in a pilot population of environmentally exposed elderly residents of Shanghai, China and presented the first set of bone Pb data on an elderly Chinese population. We found that with environmental exposures in this population using K-shell x-ray fluorescence (KXRF) bone Pb measurements 40% of the individuals had bone Pb levels above the nominal detection limit with an average bone lead level of 4.9 ± 3.6 μg/g. This bone lead level is lower than comparable values from previous studies of community dwelling adults in US cities. This population had a slightly higher geometric mean blood Pb of 2.6 μg/dL than the adult US population. The main conclusion of this data is that in Shanghai there is environmental exposure to Pb, measured through blood and bone, which should be further investigated to assess the health impact of this exposure. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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Cross, P.C.; Heisey, D.M.; Bowers, J.A.; Hay, C.T.; Wolhuter, J.; Buss, P.; Hofmeyr, M.; Michel, A.L.; Bengis, Roy G.; Bird, T.L.F.; du Toit, Johan T.; Getz, W.M.
2009-01-01
1. Understanding the effects of disease is critical to determining appropriate management responses, but estimating those effects in wildlife species is challenging. We used bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the African buffalo Syncerus caffer population of Kruger National Park, South Africa, as a case study to highlight the issues associated with estimating chronic disease effects in a long-lived host. 2. We used known and radiocollared buffalo, aerial census data, and a natural gradient in pathogen prevalence to investigate if: (i) at the individual level, BTB infection reduces reproduction; (ii) BTB infection increases vulnerability to predation; and (iii) at the population level, increased BTB prevalence causes reduced population growth. 3. There was only a marginal reduction in calving success associated with BTB infection, as indexed by the probability of sighting a known adult female with or without a calf (P = 0??065). 4. Since 1991, BTB prevalence increased from 27 to 45% in the southern region and from 4 to 28% in the central region of Kruger National Park. The prevalence in the northern regions was only 1??5% in 1998. Buffalo population growth rates, however, were neither statistically different among regions nor declining over time. 5. Lions Panthera leo did not appear to preferentially kill test-positive buffalo. The best (Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size) AICc model with BTB as a covariate [exp(??) = 0??49; 95% CI = (0??24-1??02)] suggested that the mortality hazard for positive individuals was no greater than for test-negative individuals. 6. Synthesis and applications. Test accuracy, time-varying disease status, and movement among populations are some of the issues that make the detection of chronic disease impacts challenging. For these reasons, the demographic impacts of bovine tuberculosis in the Kruger National Park remain undetectable despite 6 years of study on known individuals and 40 years of population counts. However, the rainfall and forage conditions during this study were relatively good and the impacts of many chronic diseases may be a non-linear function of environmental conditions such that they are only detectable in stressful periods. ?? 2008 British Ecological Society.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.
2016-12-01
Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We present a new delta flood exposure and risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea-level rise. We have applied this framework to a set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major river deltas to quantify how contemporary risks vary across delta systems. The risk modeling framework incorporates upstream sediment flux and coastal land subsidence models, global empirical estimates of contemporary storm surge exposure, and population distribution and growth. Future scenarios are used to test the impacts on coastal flood risk of upstream dam construction, coastal population growth, accelerated sea-level rise, and enhanced storm surge. Results suggest a wide range of outcomes across different delta systems within each scenario. Deltas in highly engineered watersheds (Mississippi, Rhine) exhibit less sensitivity to increased dams due to saturation of sediment retention effects, though planned or under-construction dams are expected to have a substantial impact in the Yangtze, Irrawaddy, and Magdalena deltas. Population growth and sea-level rise are expected to be the dominant drivers of increased human risk in most deltas, with important exceptions in several countries, particularly China, where population are forecast to contract over the next several decades.
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Brown, Tamara; Platt, Stephen; Amos, Amanda
2014-05-01
There is strong evidence about which tobacco control policies reduce smoking. However, their equity impact is uncertain. The aim was to assess the effectiveness of population-level interventions/policies to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in adult smoking. Systematic review of studies of population-level interventions/policies reporting smoking-related outcomes in adults of lower compared to higher socioeconomic status (SES). References were screened and independently checked. Studies were quality assessed. Results are presented in a narrative synthesis. Equity impact was assessed as: positive (reduced inequality), neutral (no difference by SES), negative (increased inequality), mixed (equity impact varied) or unclear. 117 studies of 130 interventions/policies were included: smokefree (44); price/tax (27); mass media campaigns (30); advertising controls (9); cessation support (9); settings-based interventions (7); multiple policies (4). The distribution of equity effects was: 33 positive, 36 neutral, 38 negative, 6 mixed, 17 unclear. Most neutral equity studies benefited all SES groups. Fourteen price/tax studies were equity positive. Voluntary, regional and partial smokefree policies were more likely to be equity negative than national, comprehensive smokefree policies. Mass media campaigns had inconsistent equity effects. Cigarette marketing controls were equity positive or neutral. Targeted national smoking cessation services can be equity positive by achieving higher reach among low SES, compensating for lower quit rates. Few studies have assessed the equity impact of tobacco control policy/interventions. Price/tax increases had the most consistent positive equity impact. More research is needed to strengthen the evidence-base for reducing smoking inequalities and to develop effective equity-orientated tobacco control strategies. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
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An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.
Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R
2015-01-01
Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.
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An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics
Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.
2015-01-01
Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409
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Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples.
Wright, Andrew J; Kyhn, Line A
2015-04-01
Human pressure on the environment is expanding and intensifying, especially in coastal and offshore areas. Major contributors to this are the current push for offshore renewable energy sources, which are thought of as environmentally friendly sources of power, as well as the continued demand for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences for individuals, which add to more obvious directed takes (e.g., hunting or fishing) to increase the overall population-level impact. To meet the requirements of marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based management, many efforts are ongoing to quantify the cumulative impacts of all human actions on marine species or populations. Meanwhile, regulators face the challenge of managing these accumulating and interacting impacts with limited scientific guidance. We believe there is scientific support for capping the level of impact for (at a minimum) populations in decline or with unknown statuses. This cap on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.
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The impact measure of solid waste management on health: the hazard index.
Musmeci, Loredana; Bellino, Mirella; Cicero, Maria Rita; Falleni, Fabrizio; Piccardi, Augusta; Trinca, Stefania
2010-01-01
The risk associated with waste exposure depends on the level of emissions arising from waste disposal and from the effects of these emissions on human health (dose-response). In 2007 an epidemiological study was conducted in two Italian provinces of the Campania Region, namely Naples and Caserta, with the aim of assessing the health effects deriving from exposure to waste. In these studies, the important aspect is the population exposure assessment, in relation to the different types of waste disposal. The Regional Agency for Environmental Protection (ARPA Campania) has identified and characterized the various authorized/unauthorized dumping sites in the provinces of Naples and Caserta. Most of the waste disposal used are illegal and invisible (sunken or buried); thus, the toxic substances therein contained are unknown and difficult to identify. In order to locate the possible areas exposed to a higher waste-related health risk, a synthetical "hazard index" (at the municipality level) was designed. By means of GIS, the number of waste impact areas was identified for each of the 196 municipalities in the two provinces; then, Census data (ISTAT 2001) was used to estimate the proportion of the population living in the impact areas. The synthetical hazard index at municipality level accounts for three elements: a) the intrinsic characterization of the waste disposal, determining the way in which the pollutant is released; b) the impact area of the dumping site (within 1 km radius), same areas are influenced by more than one site; c) the density of the population living in the "impact area" surrounding the waste disposal site.
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Harris, Stephen E; Xue, Alexander T; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego; Boehm, Joel T; Joseph, Tyler; Hickerson, Michael J; Munshi-South, Jason
2016-04-01
How urbanization shapes population genomic diversity and evolution of urban wildlife is largely unexplored. We investigated the impact of urbanization on white-footed mice,Peromyscus leucopus,in the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area using coalescent-based simulations to infer demographic history from the site-frequency spectrum. We assigned individuals to evolutionary clusters and then inferred recent divergence times, population size changes and migration using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms genotyped in 23 populations sampled along an urban-to-rural gradient. Both prehistoric climatic events and recent urbanization impacted these populations. Our modelling indicates that post-glacial sea-level rise led to isolation of mainland and Long Island populations. These models also indicate that several urban parks represent recently isolated P. leucopus populations, and the estimated divergence times for these populations are consistent with the history of urbanization in NYC. © 2016 The Author(s).
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Trends in Water Level and Flooding in Dhaka, Bangladesh and Their Impact on Mortality
Thiele-Eich, Insa; Burkart, Katrin; Simmer, Clemens
2015-01-01
Climate change is expected to impact flooding in many highly populated coastal regions, including Dhaka (Bangladesh), which is currently among the fastest growing cities in the world. In the past, high mortality counts have been associated with extreme flood events. We first analyzed daily water levels of the past 100 years in order to detect potential shifts in extremes. A distributed lag non-linear model was then used to examine the connection between water levels and mortality. Results indicate that for the period of 2003–2007, which entails two major flood events in 2004 and 2007, high water levels do not lead to a significant increase in relative mortality, which indicates a good level of adaptation and capacity to cope with flooding. However, following low water levels, an increase in mortality could be found. As our trend analysis of past water levels shows that minimum water levels have decreased during the past 100 years, action should be taken to ensure that the exposed population is also well-adapted to drought. PMID:25648177
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Deng, Weiling; Monfils, Lora
2017-01-01
Using simulated data, this study examined the impact of different levels of stringency of the valid case inclusion criterion on item response theory (IRT)-based true score equating over 5 years in the context of K-12 assessment when growth in student achievement is expected. Findings indicate that the use of the most stringent inclusion criterion…
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Sakuma, Kay; Ueda, Yuji; Hamatsu, Tomonori; Kojima, Shigeaki
2014-06-01
Recent studies have revealed the impact of the drastic climate change during the last glacial period on coastal marine and anadromous species in the marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean; however, its influence on deep-sea species remains poorly understood. To compare the effects of the last glacial period on populations from the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk, we examined the mitochondrial control region and cytochrome b gene sequences of Lycodes matsubarai, a deepsea demersal fish that inhabits these two seas. Our results showed clear genetic differentiation of populations between the two seas. The populations may have diverged during the last glacial period, probably as a result of vicariance due to the drastic sea level change. The population in the Sea of Okhotsk was larger than that in the Sea of Japan, but suddenly decreased after the last glacial period. However, the Sea of Japan population expanded after the last glacial period, coincident with high levels of oxygenation in deep-sea areas. These results elucidate regional-scale impacts of climate change on deep-sea organisms.
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Chen, Juan; Chen, Shuo; Landry, Pierre F
2015-07-31
Along with the rapid urbanization in China, the state of mental health also receives growing attention. Empirical measures, however, have not been developed to assess the impact of urbanization on mental health and the dramatic spatial variations. Innovatively linking the 2010 Chinese Population Census with a 2011 national survey of urban residents, we first assess the impact of urbanization on depressive symptoms measured by the Center of Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) of 1288 survey respondents. We then retrieve county-level characteristics from the 2010 Chinese Population Census that match the individual characteristics in the survey, so as to create a profile of the "average person" for each of the 2869 counties or city districts, and predict a county-specific CES-D score. We use this county-specific CES-D score to compute the CES-D score for the urban population at the prefectural level, and to demonstrate the dramatic spatial variations in urbanization and mental health across China: highly populated cities along the eastern coast such as Shenyang and Shanghai show high CES-D scores, as do cities in western China with high population density and a high proportion of educated ethnic minorities.
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French, Susannah S; DeNardo, Dale F.; Greives, Timothy J.; Strand, Christine R.; Demas, Gregory E.
2010-01-01
Anthropogenic disturbance is a relevant and widespread facilitator of environmental change and there is clear evidence that it impacts natural populations. While population-level responses to major anthropogenic changes have been well studied, individual physiological responses to mild disturbance can be equally critical to the long-term survival of a species, yet they remain largely unexamined. The current study investigated the impact of seemingly low-level anthropogenic disturbance (ecotourism) on stress responsiveness and specific fitness-related immune measures in different breeding stages of the marine iguana (Amblyrhynchus cristatus). Specifically, we found stress-induced elevations in plasma corticosterone among tourist-exposed populations relative to undisturbed populations. We also found changes in multiple immunological responses associated with stress-related effects of human disturbance, including bacterial killing ability, cutaneous wound healing, and hemolytic complement activity, and the responses varied according to reproductive state. By identifying health-related consequences of human disturbance, this study provides critical insight into the conservation of a well-known species that has a very distinct ecology. The study also broadens the foundation of knowledge needed to understand the global significance of various levels of human disturbance. PMID:20708010
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Herbicide cycling has diverse effects on evolution of resistance in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii
Lagator, Mato; Vogwill, Tom; Colegrave, Nick; Neve, Paul
2013-01-01
Cycling pesticides has been proposed as a means of retarding the evolution of resistance, but its efficacy has rarely been empirically tested. We evolved populations of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii in the presence of three herbicides: atrazine, glyphosate and carbetamide. Populations were exposed to a weekly, biweekly and triweekly cycling between all three pairwise combinations of herbicides and continuously to each of the three herbicides. We explored the impacts of herbicide cycling on the rate of resistance evolution, the level of resistance selected, the cost of resistance and the degree of generality (cross-resistance) observed. Herbicide cycling resulted in a diversity of outcomes: preventing evolution of resistance for some combinations of herbicides, having no impacts for others and increasing rates of resistance evolution in some instances. Weekly cycling of atrazine and carbetamide resulted in selection of a generalist population. This population had a higher level of resistance, and this generalist resistance was associated with a cost. The level of resistance selected did not vary amongst other regimes. Costs of resistance were generally highest when cycling was more frequent. Our data suggest that the effects of herbicide cycling on the evolution of resistance may be more complex and less favourable than generally assumed. PMID:23467494
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Page, Andrew; Atkinson, Jo-An; Heffernan, Mark; McDonnell, Geoff; Prodan, Ante; Osgood, Nathaniel; Hickie, Ian
2018-01-01
This study investigates two approaches to estimate the potential impact of a population-level intervention on Australian suicide, to highlight the importance of selecting appropriate analytic approaches for informing evidence-based strategies for suicide prevention. The potential impact of a psychosocial therapy intervention on the incidence of suicide in Australia over the next 10 years was used as a case study to compare the potential impact on suicides averted using: (1) a traditional epidemiological measure of population attributable risk and (2) a dynamic measure of population impact based on a systems science model of suicide that incorporates changes over time. Based on the population preventive fraction, findings suggest that the psychosocial therapy intervention if implemented among all eligible individuals in the Australian population would prevent 5.4% of suicides (or 1936 suicides) over the next 10 years. In comparison, estimates from the dynamic simulation model which accounts for changes in the effect size of the intervention over time, the time taken for the intervention to have an impact in the population, and likely barriers to the uptake and availability of services suggest that the intervention would avert a lower proportion of suicides (between 0.4% and 0.5%) over the same follow-up period. Traditional epidemiological measures used to estimate population health burden have several limitations that are often understated and can lead to unrealistic expectations of the potential impact of evidence-based interventions in real-world settings. This study highlights these limitations and proposes an alternative analytic approach to guide policy and practice decisions to achieve reductions in Australian suicide.
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A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives.
The value of models that link organism‐level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism&#...
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Climate Change Impact on Neotropical Social Wasps
Dejean, Alain; Céréghino, Régis; Carpenter, James M.; Corbara, Bruno; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Leponce, Maurice; Orivel, Jérome; Bonal, Damien
2011-01-01
Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997–2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals. PMID:22073236
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Climate change impact on neotropical social wasps.
Dejean, Alain; Céréghino, Régis; Carpenter, James M; Corbara, Bruno; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Leponce, Maurice; Orivel, Jérome; Bonal, Damien
2011-01-01
Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997-2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals.
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Population-based evaluation of the 'LiveLighter' healthy weight and lifestyle mass media campaign.
Morley, B; Niven, P; Dixon, H; Swanson, M; Szybiak, M; Shilton, T; Pratt, I S; Slevin, T; Hill, D; Wakefield, M
2016-04-01
The Western Australian (WA) 'LiveLighter' (LL) mass media campaign ran during June-August and September-October 2012. The principal campaign ad graphically depicts visceral fat of an overweight individual ('why' change message), whereas supporting ads demonstrate simple changes to increase activity and eat healthier ('how' to change message). Cross-sectional surveys among population samples aged 25-49 were undertaken pre-campaign (N= 2012) and following the two media waves (N= 2005 and N= 2009) in the intervention (WA) and comparison state (Victoria) to estimate the population impact of LL. Campaign awareness was 54% after the first media wave and overweight adults were more likely to recall LL and perceive it as personally relevant. Recall was also higher among parents, but equal between socio-economic groups. The 'why' message about health-harms of overweight rated higher than 'how' messages about lifestyle change, on perceived message effectiveness which is predictive of health-related intention and behaviour change. State-by-time interactions showed population-level increases in self-referent thoughts about the health-harms of overweight (P < 0.05) and physical activity intentions (P < 0.05). Endorsement of stereotypes of overweight individuals did not increase after LL aired. LL was associated with some population-level improvements in proximal and intermediate markers of campaign impact. However, sustained campaign activity will be needed to impact behaviour. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.
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Population-based evaluation of the ‘LiveLighter’ healthy weight and lifestyle mass media campaign
Morley, B.; Niven, P.; Dixon, H.; Swanson, M.; Szybiak, M.; Shilton, T.; Pratt, I. S.; Slevin, T.; Hill, D.; Wakefield, M.
2016-01-01
The Western Australian (WA) ‘LiveLighter’ (LL) mass media campaign ran during June–August and September–October 2012. The principal campaign ad graphically depicts visceral fat of an overweight individual (‘why’ change message), whereas supporting ads demonstrate simple changes to increase activity and eat healthier (‘how’ to change message). Cross-sectional surveys among population samples aged 25–49 were undertaken pre-campaign (N = 2012) and following the two media waves (N = 2005 and N = 2009) in the intervention (WA) and comparison state (Victoria) to estimate the population impact of LL. Campaign awareness was 54% after the first media wave and overweight adults were more likely to recall LL and perceive it as personally relevant. Recall was also higher among parents, but equal between socio-economic groups. The ‘why’ message about health-harms of overweight rated higher than ‘how’ messages about lifestyle change, on perceived message effectiveness which is predictive of health-related intention and behaviour change. State-by-time interactions showed population-level increases in self-referent thoughts about the health-harms of overweight (P < 0.05) and physical activity intentions (P < 0.05). Endorsement of stereotypes of overweight individuals did not increase after LL aired. LL was associated with some population-level improvements in proximal and intermediate markers of campaign impact. However, sustained campaign activity will be needed to impact behaviour. PMID:26956039
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An argument for renewed focus on epidemiology for public health.
Rogawski, Elizabeth T; Gray, Christine L; Poole, Charles
2016-10-01
Although epidemiology has an indispensable role in serving public health, the relative emphasis of applications of epidemiology often tend toward individual-level medicine over public health in terms of resources and impact. We make distinctions between public health and medical applications of epidemiology to raise awareness among epidemiologists, many of whom came to the field with public health in mind. We discuss reasons for the overemphasis on medical epidemiology and suggest ways to counteract these incentives. Public health epidemiology informs interventions that are applied to populations or that confer benefits beyond the individual, whereas medical epidemiology informs interventions that improve the health of treated individuals. Available resources, new biomedical technologies, and existing epidemiologic methods favor medical applications of epidemiology. Focus on public health impact and methods suited to answer public health questions can create better balance and promote population-level improvements in public health. By deliberately reflecting on research motivations and long-term goals, we hope the distinctions presented here will facilitate critical discussion and a greater consciousness of our potential impact on both individual and population-level health. Renewed intentions towards public health can help epidemiologists navigate potential projects and ultimately contribute to an epidemiology of consequence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Tchepel, Oxana; Dias, Daniela
2011-06-01
This study is focused on the assessment of potential health benefits by meeting the air quality limit values (2008/50/CE) for short-term PM₁₀ exposure. For this purpose, the methodology of the WHO for Health Impact Assessment and APHEIS guidelines for data collection were applied to Porto Metropolitan Area, Portugal. Additionally, an improved methodology using population mobility data is proposed in this work to analyse number of persons exposed. In order to obtain representative background concentrations, an innovative approach to process air quality time series was implemented. The results provide the number of attributable cases prevented annually by reducing PM(10) concentration. An intercomparison of two approaches to process input data for the health risk analysis provides information on sensitivity of the applied methodology. The findings highlight the importance of taking into account spatial variability of the air pollution levels and population mobility in the health impact assessment.
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Bagshaw, Simon
Attacks against healthcare in situations of armed conflict have emerged as an issue of increasing concern with explosive weapons - such as aircraft bombs, mortars and improvised explosive devices - accounting for more deaths, injuries and damage than any other type of weapon in attacks on healthcare facilities. While this is perhaps unsurprising, it offers some insight into a possible course of action for dealing with the problem of attacks against healthcare - by curbing the use of explosive weapons in populated areas. There has been growing recognition in recent years of the humanitarian problems caused by the use of such weapons in populated areas. Steps are now being taken at the global level to curb this use which could, in time, make an important contribution to reducing the incidence and devastating impact of attacks against healthcare.
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Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India
Chatterjee, Susmita; Rao, Krishna D.; Dowdy, David W.
2016-01-01
Some of the most promising vaccines in the pipeline for tuberculosis (TB) target adolescents and adults. Unlike for childhood vaccines, high-coverage population-wide vaccination is significantly more challenging for adult vaccines. Here, we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical ‘hotspots’ compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished these hotspots from the general population. We evaluated the impact of targeted and untargeted vaccine delivery strategies in India—a country that bears more than 25% of global TB burden, and may be a potential early adopter of the vaccine. We collected TB notification data and conducted a demonstration study in the state of Gujarat to validate our estimates of heterogeneity in TB incidence. We then projected the impact of randomly vaccinating 8% of adults in a single mass campaign to a spatially targeted vaccination preferentially delivered to 80% of adults in the hotspots, with both strategies augmented by continuous adolescent vaccination. In consultation with vaccine developers, we considered a vaccine efficacy of 60%, and evaluated the population-level impact after 10 years of vaccination. Spatial heterogeneity in TB notification (per 100 000/year) was modest in Gujarat: 190 in the hotspots versus 125 in the remaining population. At this level of heterogeneity, the spatially targeted vaccination was projected to reduce TB incidence by 28% after 10 years, compared with a 24% reduction projected to achieve via untargeted vaccination—a 1.17-fold augmentation in the impact of vaccination by spatially targeting. The degree of the augmentation was robust to reasonable variation in natural history assumptions, but depended strongly on the extent of spatial heterogeneity and mixing between the hotspot and general population. Identifying high-incidence hotspots and quantifying spatial mixing patterns are critical to accurate estimation of the value of targeted intervention strategies. PMID:27009179
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pardo, Adara; Cáceres, Yonatan; Pulido, Fernando
2018-01-01
Relict species are an extremely important part of biodiversity and as such studies on the factors that allow their current persistence are required. The aim of this study was to assess the determinants of the distribution and range-wide population performance of the Tertiary relict tree Prunus lusitanica L. This threatened species is confined to Iberia, Northern Morocco and Macaronesia with a fragmented and scattered distribution. Using ecological niche modelling, we calculated the level of range filling across the range and tested its relationship with human impact. We then assessed the relative importance of climatic suitability as obtained through niche modelling, topographic factors and contemporary human impact on range-wide population performance. Results showed that the species occupies only 2.4% of the overall area predicted to be climatically suitable for its presence and the level of range filling varied across regions. A weak negative relationship among range filling and human impact was found. Overall climatic suitability was the strongest predictor of population performance. However, it showed high variability across regions: the effect was positive in Iberia whereas negative but not significant in Macaronesia and Morocco. Human impact showed a significant negative effect and finally topographic factors such as altitude had a minor negative effect. Our results highlight that both climate and human impact play a major role in the current limited range filling and performance of the species. Management plans to minimize anthropogenic disturbances together with reforestation measures are urgently needed in order to conserve this unique species.
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Veremchuk, L V; Cherpack, N A; Gvozdenko, T A; Volkova, M V
2015-01-01
In large cities with strong air pollution the formation of the levels of morbidity rate of bronchial asthma has a complex causation that requires the search for informative methods for identification of causes and consequences of this dependence. Method for the assessment of the dependence of overall levels of morbidity rate of bronchial asthma on the degree of air pollution allows you to select a "useful information" of the direct impact of air pollution on a background of random processes and latent relationship between human and environment. The use of the method of the information entropy analysis allowed us to estimate the total and the individual contribution of the separate components of air pollution on the formation of levels of total morbidity rate of bronchial asthma in the population of the city of Vladivostok. Levels of total incidence of this pathology were established to differ in various age groups. The adult population is more adapted to air pollution, but retains a high sensitivity to the impact of nitrogen dioxide. Levels of overall l morbidity rate of bronchial asthma in children and adolescents depend on the total air pollution with some dominance of the influence of suspended matter and carbon monoxide.
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The impact of self-incompatibility systems on the prevention of biparental inbreeding
Furstenau, Tara N.
2017-01-01
Inbreeding in hermaphroditic plants can occur through two different mechanisms: biparental inbreeding, when a plant mates with a related individual, or self-fertilization, when a plant mates with itself. To avoid inbreeding, many hermaphroditic plants have evolved self-incompatibility (SI) systems which prevent or limit self-fertilization. One particular SI system—homomorphic SI—can also reduce biparental inbreeding. Homomorphic SI is found in many angiosperm species, and it is often assumed that the additional benefit of reduced biparental inbreeding may be a factor in the success of this SI system. To test this assumption, we developed a spatially-explicit, individual-based simulation of plant populations that displayed three different types of homomorphic SI. We measured the total level of inbreeding avoidance by comparing each population to a self-compatible population (NSI), and we measured biparental inbreeding avoidance by comparing to a population of self-incompatible plants that were free to mate with any other individual (PSI). Because biparental inbreeding is more common when offspring dispersal is limited, we examined the levels of biparental inbreeding over a range of dispersal distances. We also tested whether the introduction of inbreeding depression affected the level of biparental inbreeding avoidance. We found that there was a statistically significant decrease in autozygosity in each of the homomorphic SI populations compared to the PSI population and, as expected, this was more pronounced when seed and pollen dispersal was limited. However, levels of homozygosity and inbreeding depression were not reduced. At low dispersal, homomorphic SI populations also suffered reduced female fecundity and had smaller census population sizes. Overall, our simulations showed that the homomorphic SI systems had little impact on the amount of biparental inbreeding in the population especially when compared to the overall reduction in inbreeding compared to the NSI population. With further study, this observation may have important consequences for research into the origin and evolution of homomorphic self-incompatibility systems. PMID:29188143
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Assessing impacts of oil-shale development on the Piceance Basin mule deer herd
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
White, G.C.; Garrott, R.A.
Development of energy resources on big game ranges generally negatively impacts these important wildlife resources. Although habitat disturbance is generally important, this impact is overshadowed by the negative impacts due to an increasing human population in the area. Increased human activities particularly stress animals during winter periods when inadequate nutrition levels may have already severely impacted the population. Increased road traffic and poaching causes additional deaths, which a decline in survival rates expected, or at least changes in the cause of mortality. This paper describes the experimental design to monitor and mitigate the impact of oil shale development in northwesternmore » Colorado on the Piceance Basin mule deer herd. Biotelemetry techniques are used to measure changes through time in movements, habitat utilization, and survival rates between control and treatment areas. 2 figures.« less
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Brander, Susanne M; Connon, Richard E; He, Guochun; Hobbs, James A; Smalling, Kelly L; Teh, Swee J; White, J Wilson; Werner, Inge; Denison, Michael S; Cherr, Gary N
2013-01-01
Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) cause physiological abnormalities and population decline in fishes. However, few studies have linked environmental EDC exposures with responses at multiple tiers of the biological hierarchy, including population-level effects. To this end, we undertook a four-tiered investigation in the impacted San Francisco Bay estuary with the Mississippi silverside (Menidia audens), a small pelagic fish. This approach demonstrated links between different EDC sources and fish responses at different levels of biological organization. First we determined that water from a study site primarily impacted by ranch run-off had only estrogenic activity in vitro, while water sampled from a site receiving a combination of urban, limited ranch run-off, and treated wastewater effluent had both estrogenic and androgenic activity. Secondly, at the molecular level we found that fish had higher mRNA levels for estrogen-responsive genes at the site where only estrogenic activity was detected but relatively lower expression levels where both estrogenic and androgenic EDCs were detected. Thirdly, at the organism level, males at the site exposed to both estrogens and androgens had significantly lower mean gonadal somatic indices, significantly higher incidence of severe testicular necrosis and altered somatic growth relative to the site where only estrogens were detected. Finally, at the population level, the sex ratio was significantly skewed towards males at the site with measured androgenic and estrogenic activity. Our results suggest that mixtures of androgenic and estrogenic EDCs have antagonistic and potentially additive effects depending on the biological scale being assessed, and that mixtures containing androgens and estrogens may produce unexpected effects. In summary, evaluating EDC response at multiple tiers is necessary to determine the source of disruption (lowest scale, i.e. cell line) and what the ecological impact will be (largest scale, i.e. sex ratio).
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Bauman, Adrian; McLean, Grant; Hurdle, Deb; Walker, Sue; Boyd, John; van Aalst, Ingrid; Carr, Harriette
2003-08-08
Physical inactivity is considered to be as detrimental to public health as hypertension or tobacco use, but there is limited evidence on the impact of community-wide interventions in this area. This paper describes the impact of an initiative to increase physical activity at a population level in New Zealand. A media-led, community-wide intervention campaign was initiated by the Hillary Commission (now SPARC, Sport and Recreation New Zealand). The 'Push Play' campaign recommended 30 minutes of daily, moderate-intensity physical activity as fun, part of community life, and easy to achieve for New Zealand adults. In addition, there were community-level and primary care supporting programmes and events. Annual cross-sectional population surveys (1999-2002) monitored the impact of the campaign on message awareness, recognition of the Push Play logo, intention to be active, and recent activity. There were substantial increases in awareness of the Push Play message (30% in 1999 to 57% in 2002, p <0.001), and of the Push Play logo (14% to 52%, p <0.001). There were significant increases in the numbers of adults who intended to be more active (1.8% in 1999 to 9.4% in 2002). No sustained changes in physical activity levels were seen in these Push Play serial evaluation surveys, with 38.6% of the 1999 sample reporting 5+ days activity per week, increasing to 44.5% in 2000, but declining to 38.0% in 2002. The only significant difference in physical activity levels occurred from 1999 to 2000 (difference 5.8%, 95% CI 0.1%-11.6%). In an unrelated, much larger population survey, a 3% increase in physical activity participation was noted among adults between 1997 and 2001. The national Push Play campaign resulted in increases in message recognition and in intention to become more active. If sustained, efforts like this may have a long-term impact on adult activity patterns, leading to improved health outcomes and reduced health costs.
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Multiscale Genetic Structure of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout in the Upper Snake River Basin.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Cegelski, Christine C.; Campbell, Matthew R.
2006-05-30
Populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvierii have declined throughout their native range as a result of habitat fragmentation, overharvest, and introductions of nonnative trout that have hybridized with or displaced native populations. The degree to which these factors have impacted the current genetic population structure of Yellowstone cutthroat trout populations is of primary interest for their conservation. In this study, we examined the genetic diversity and genetic population structure of Yellowstone cutthroat trout in Idaho and Nevada with data from six polymorphic microsatellite loci. A total of 1,392 samples were analyzed from 45 sample locations throughout 11 majormore » river drainages. We found that levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation varied extensively. The Salt River drainage, which is representative of the least impacted migration corridors in Idaho, had the highest levels of genetic diversity and low levels of genetic differentiation. High levels of genetic differentiation were observed at similar or smaller geographic scales in the Portneuf River, Raft River, and Teton River drainages, which are more altered by anthropogenic disturbances. Results suggested that Yellowstone cutthroat trout are naturally structured at the major river drainage level but that habitat fragmentation has altered this structuring. Connectivity should be restored via habitat restoration whenever possible to minimize losses in genetic diversity and to preserve historical processes of gene flow, life history variation, and metapopulation dynamics. However, alternative strategies for management and conservation should also be considered in areas where there is a strong likelihood of nonnative invasions or extensive habitat fragmentation that cannot be easily ameliorated.« less
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Payne, Catherine J; Jessop, Tim S; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Johnstone, Michele; Feore, Megan; Mulder, Raoul A
2012-01-01
Wild animals in urban environments are exposed to a broad range of human activities that have the potential to disturb their life history and behaviour. Wildlife responses to disturbance can range from emigration to modified behaviour, or elevated stress, but these responses are rarely evaluated in concert. We simultaneously examined population, behavioural and hormonal responses of an urban population of black swans Cygnus atratus before, during and after an annual disturbance event involving large crowds and intense noise, the Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Black swan population numbers were lowest one week before the event and rose gradually over the course of the study, peaking after the event, suggesting that the disturbance does not trigger mass emigration. We also found no difference in the proportion of time spent on key behaviours such as locomotion, foraging, resting or self-maintenance over the course of the study. However, basal and capture stress-induced corticosterone levels showed significant variation, consistent with a modest physiological response. Basal plasma corticosterone levels were highest before the event and decreased over the course of the study. Capture-induced stress levels peaked during the Grand Prix and then also declined over the remainder of the study. Our results suggest that even intensely noisy and apparently disruptive events may have relatively low measurable short-term impact on population numbers, behaviour or physiology in urban populations with apparently high tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential long-term impact of such disturbance on reproductive success, individual fitness and population health will need to be carefully evaluated.
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Payne, Catherine J.; Jessop, Tim S.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Johnstone, Michele; Feore, Megan; Mulder, Raoul A.
2012-01-01
Wild animals in urban environments are exposed to a broad range of human activities that have the potential to disturb their life history and behaviour. Wildlife responses to disturbance can range from emigration to modified behaviour, or elevated stress, but these responses are rarely evaluated in concert. We simultaneously examined population, behavioural and hormonal responses of an urban population of black swans Cygnus atratus before, during and after an annual disturbance event involving large crowds and intense noise, the Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Black swan population numbers were lowest one week before the event and rose gradually over the course of the study, peaking after the event, suggesting that the disturbance does not trigger mass emigration. We also found no difference in the proportion of time spent on key behaviours such as locomotion, foraging, resting or self-maintenance over the course of the study. However, basal and capture stress-induced corticosterone levels showed significant variation, consistent with a modest physiological response. Basal plasma corticosterone levels were highest before the event and decreased over the course of the study. Capture-induced stress levels peaked during the Grand Prix and then also declined over the remainder of the study. Our results suggest that even intensely noisy and apparently disruptive events may have relatively low measurable short-term impact on population numbers, behaviour or physiology in urban populations with apparently high tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential long-term impact of such disturbance on reproductive success, individual fitness and population health will need to be carefully evaluated. PMID:23024783
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How Should the Department of Defense Approach Environmental Security Implications of Climate Change
2009-12-11
Atlanta: Army Environmental Policy Institute. Kleypas, J. A. 2005. Impacts of ocean acidification on coral reefs and other marine calcifiers. Report......literature review. This chapter includes an introduction to climate change, impacts to the population from sea-level rise, ocean acidification
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Maheu-Giroux, Mathieu; Vesga, Juan F; Diabaté, Souleymane; Alary, Michel; Baral, Stefan; Diouf, Daouda; Abo, Kouamé; Boily, Marie-Claude
2017-06-01
National responses will need to be markedly accelerated to achieve the ambitious target of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). This target aims for 90% of HIV-positive individuals to be aware of their status, for 90% of those aware to receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and for 90% of those on treatment to have a suppressed viral load by 2020, with each individual target reaching 95% by 2030. We aimed to estimate the impact of various treatment-as-prevention scenarios in Côte d'Ivoire, one of the countries with the highest HIV incidence in West Africa, with unmet HIV prevention and treatment needs, and where key populations are important to the broader HIV epidemic. An age-stratified dynamic model was developed and calibrated to epidemiological and programmatic data using a Bayesian framework. The model represents sexual and vertical HIV transmission in the general population, female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM). We estimated the impact of scaling up interventions to reach the UNAIDS targets, as well as the impact of 8 other scenarios, on HIV transmission in adults and children, compared to our baseline scenario that maintains 2015 rates of testing, ART initiation, ART discontinuation, treatment failure, and levels of condom use. In 2015, we estimated that 52% (95% credible intervals: 46%-58%) of HIV-positive individuals were aware of their status, 72% (57%-82%) of those aware were on ART, and 77% (74%-79%) of those on ART were virologically suppressed. Reaching the UNAIDS targets on time would avert 50% (42%-60%) of new HIV infections over 2015-2030 compared to 30% (25%-36%) if the 90-90-90 target is reached in 2025. Attaining the UNAIDS targets in FSW, their clients, and MSM (but not in the rest of the population) would avert a similar fraction of new infections (30%; 21%-39%). A 25-percentage-point drop in condom use from the 2015 levels among FSW and MSM would reduce the impact of reaching the UNAIDS targets, with 38% (26%-51%) of infections averted. The study's main limitation is that homogenous spatial coverage of interventions was assumed, and future lines of inquiry should examine how geographical prioritization could affect HIV transmission. Maximizing the impact of the UNAIDS targets will require rapid scale-up of interventions, particularly testing, ART initiation, and limiting ART discontinuation. Reaching clients of FSW, as well as key populations, can efficiently reduce transmission. Sustaining the high condom-use levels among key populations should remain an important prevention pillar.
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Diabaté, Souleymane; Alary, Michel; Diouf, Daouda; Abo, Kouamé; Boily, Marie-Claude
2017-01-01
Background National responses will need to be markedly accelerated to achieve the ambitious target of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). This target aims for 90% of HIV-positive individuals to be aware of their status, for 90% of those aware to receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and for 90% of those on treatment to have a suppressed viral load by 2020, with each individual target reaching 95% by 2030. We aimed to estimate the impact of various treatment-as-prevention scenarios in Côte d’Ivoire, one of the countries with the highest HIV incidence in West Africa, with unmet HIV prevention and treatment needs, and where key populations are important to the broader HIV epidemic. Methods and findings An age-stratified dynamic model was developed and calibrated to epidemiological and programmatic data using a Bayesian framework. The model represents sexual and vertical HIV transmission in the general population, female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM). We estimated the impact of scaling up interventions to reach the UNAIDS targets, as well as the impact of 8 other scenarios, on HIV transmission in adults and children, compared to our baseline scenario that maintains 2015 rates of testing, ART initiation, ART discontinuation, treatment failure, and levels of condom use. In 2015, we estimated that 52% (95% credible intervals: 46%–58%) of HIV-positive individuals were aware of their status, 72% (57%–82%) of those aware were on ART, and 77% (74%–79%) of those on ART were virologically suppressed. Reaching the UNAIDS targets on time would avert 50% (42%–60%) of new HIV infections over 2015–2030 compared to 30% (25%–36%) if the 90-90-90 target is reached in 2025. Attaining the UNAIDS targets in FSW, their clients, and MSM (but not in the rest of the population) would avert a similar fraction of new infections (30%; 21%–39%). A 25-percentage-point drop in condom use from the 2015 levels among FSW and MSM would reduce the impact of reaching the UNAIDS targets, with 38% (26%–51%) of infections averted. The study’s main limitation is that homogenous spatial coverage of interventions was assumed, and future lines of inquiry should examine how geographical prioritization could affect HIV transmission. Conclusions Maximizing the impact of the UNAIDS targets will require rapid scale-up of interventions, particularly testing, ART initiation, and limiting ART discontinuation. Reaching clients of FSW, as well as key populations, can efficiently reduce transmission. Sustaining the high condom-use levels among key populations should remain an important prevention pillar. PMID:28617810
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Wang, Yi; Huang, Wei; Siemann, Evan; Zou, Jianwen; Wheeler, Gregory S; Carrillo, Juli; Ding, Jianqing
2011-04-01
Invasive plants often have novel biotic interactions in their introduced ranges. Their defense to herbivory may differ from their native counterparts, potentially influencing the effectiveness of biological control. If invasive plants have decreased resistance but increased tolerance to enemies, insect herbivores may rapidly build up their populations but exert weak control. Moreover, resource availability to plants may affect the efficacy of biological control agents. We tested these predictions using Chinese tallow tree (Triadica sebifera) and two specialist herbivores (Heterapoderopsis bicallosicollis and Gadirtha inexacta) that are candidates for biological control. We performed a pair of field common garden experiments in China in which Triadica seedlings from the native or introduced range were grown in low or high light conditions and subjected to different levels of herbivory by each herbivore in a factorial design. We found that Heterapoderopsis achieved greater densities on tallow trees from the introduced range or when trees were grown in high light conditions. When Gadirtha was raised in the lab on tallow tree foliage we found that it performed better (larger pupal size) when fed foliage from introduced populations. However, introduced populations generally had greater herbivore tolerance such that the impact of each agent on plant performance was lower than on native populations despite higher herbivore loads. Tallow trees grew more slowly and achieved smaller sizes in lower light levels, but the impact of biological control agents was comparable to that found for higher light levels. Plants from introduced populations grew larger than those from native populations in all conditions. Our results suggest that reduced resistance and increased tolerance to herbivory in introduced populations may impede success of biological control programs. Biological control practitioners should include plants from the introduced range in the prerelease evaluation, which will help predict insect impact on target weeds.
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Rocha, Ariana V; Rita Cardoso, Bárbara; Zavarize, Bruna; Almondes, Kaluce; Bordon, Isabella; Hare, Dominic J; Teixeira Favaro, Déborah Inês; Franciscato Cozzolino, Silvia Maria
2016-11-15
Mercury is potent toxicant element, but its toxicity can be reduced by forming a complex with selenium for safe excretion. Considering the impact of mercury exposure in the Amazon region and the possible interaction between these two elements, we aimed to assess the effects of Pro198Leu polymorphism to GPX1 and GSTM1 deletion, on mercury levels in a population from Porto Velho, an urban locality in the Brazilian Amazon region. Two hundred women from the capital city of Rondônia state were recruited for this study with 149 deemed suitable to participate. We assessed dietary intake using 24-hour recall. Selenium levels in plasma and erythrocytes were measured using hydride generation quartz tube atomic absorption spectroscopy and total hair mercury using cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry. Oxidative stress parameters (GPx activity, oxygen radical absorbency capacity [ORAC] and malondialdehyde [MDA]) were also analyzed. All participants were genotyped for Pro198Leu polymorphism and GSTM1 deletion. We observed that this population presented high prevalence of selenium deficiency, and also low levels of mercury, likely due to food habits that did not include selenium-rich food sources or significant consumption of fish (mercury biomagnifiers) regularly. Univariate statistical analysis showed that Pro198Leu and GSTM1 genotypes did not affect selenium and mercury levels in this population. Pro198Leu polymorphism and GSTM1 deletion had no effect on mercury levels in mildly exposed people, suggesting these genetic variants impact mercury levels only in highly exposed populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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THE OCCURRENCE OF HIGH LEVELS OF LIPIDS IN FUNDULUS HETERCLITUS FROM A HIGHLY PCB CONTAIMINATED SITE
A population model constructed by Munns et al. (1997) for Fundulus heteroclitus predicts that populations in severely impacted ecosystems such as New Bedford Harbor, a highly PCB contaminated Superfund site, should be under severe stress. However, cursory assessment of the fish p...
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Controlling Japanese barberry: Alternative methods and impact on tick populations
Jeffrey S. Ward; Scott C. Williams; Thomas E. Worthley
2011-01-01
Japanese barberry (Berberis thunbergii) is classified as invasive in 20 states and four Canadian provinces. It is also established in another 11 states. In addition to forming dense thickets that can inhibit forest regeneration and native herbaceous plant populations, barberry understories can harbor greatly enhanced levels of blacklegged ticks (
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Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling
Robin E. Russell; J. Andrew Royle; Richard Desimone; Michael K. Schwartz; Victoria L. Edwards; Kristy P. Pilgrim; Kevin S. McKelvey
2012-01-01
Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management...
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ANALYTICAL STRATEGIES FOR ASSESSING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF CHEMICAL AND NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS
The project will assess the relative impact of community-level and individual-level stressors – including multiple chemical, social and psychosocial stressors -- on biologic markers of health effects across neighborhoods and vulnerable populations in Texas City, Texas...
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Hannam, K; Deere, K C; Hartley, A; Clark, E M; Coulson, J; Ireland, A; Moss, C; Edwards, M H; Dennison, E; Gaysin, T; Cooper, R; Wong, A; McPhee, J S; Cooper, C; Kuh, D; Tobias, J H
2017-03-01
This observational study assessed vertical impacts experienced in older adults as part of their day-to-day physical activity using accelerometry and questionnaire data. Population-based older adults experienced very limited high-impact activity. The accelerometry method utilised appeared to be valid based on comparisons between different cohorts and with self-reported activity. We aimed to validate a novel method for evaluating day-to-day higher impact weight-bearing physical activity (PA) in older adults, thought to be important in protecting against osteoporosis, by comparing results between four cohorts varying in age and activity levels, and with self-reported PA levels. Participants were from three population-based cohorts, MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), Hertfordshire Cohort Study (HCS) and Cohort for Skeletal Health in Bristol and Avon (COSHIBA), and the Master Athlete Cohort (MAC). Y-axis peaks (reflecting the vertical when an individual is upright) from a triaxial accelerometer (sampling frequency 50 Hz, range 0-16 g) worn at the waist for 7 days were classified as low (0.5-1.0 g), medium (1.0-1.5 g) or higher (≥1.5 g) impacts. There were a median of 90, 41 and 39 higher impacts/week in NSHD (age 69.5), COSHIBA (age 76.8) and HCS (age 78.5) participants, respectively (total n = 1512). In contrast, MAC participants (age 68.5) had a median of 14,322 higher impacts/week. In the three population cohorts combined, based on comparison of beta coefficients, moderate-high-impact activities as assessed by PA questionnaire were suggestive of stronger association with higher impacts from accelerometers (0.25 [0.17, 0.34]), compared with medium (0.18 [0.09, 0.27]) and low impacts (0.13 [0.07,0.19]) (beta coefficient, with 95 % CI). Likewise in MAC, reported moderate-high-impact activities showed a stronger association with higher impacts (0.26 [0.14, 0.37]), compared with medium (0.14 [0.05, 0.22]) and low impacts (0.03 [-0.02, 0.08]). Our new accelerometer method appears to provide valid measures of higher vertical impacts in older adults. Results obtained from the three population-based cohorts indicate that older adults generally experience very limited higher impact weight-bearing PA.
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Jackson, Rod
2017-01-01
Background Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients’ multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country’s total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. Methods and results A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30–84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each ‘synthetic’ person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. Conclusions We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere. PMID:28384217
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Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod
2017-01-01
Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.
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PAGER--Rapid assessment of an earthquake?s impact
Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.
2010-01-01
PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world. Earthquake alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.
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Wired: impacts of increasing power line use by a growing bird population
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moreira, Francisco; Encarnação, Vitor; Rosa, Gonçalo; Gilbert, Nathalie; Infante, Samuel; Costa, Julieta; D'Amico, Marcello; Martins, Ricardo C.; Catry, Inês
2017-02-01
Power lines are increasingly widespread across many regions of the planet. Although these linear infrastructures are known for their negative impacts on bird populations, through collision and electrocution, some species take advantage of electricity pylons for nesting. In this case, estimation of the net impact of these infrastructures at the population level requires an assessment of trade-offs between positive and negative impacts. We compiled historical information (1958-2014) of the Portuguese white stork Ciconia ciconia population to analyze long-term changes in numbers, distribution range and use of nesting structures. White stork population size increased 660% up to 12000 breeding pairs between 1984 and 2014. In the same period, the proportion of nests on electricity pylons increased from 1% to 25%, likely facilitated by the 60% increase in the length of the very high tension power line grid (holding the majority of the nests) in the stork’s distribution range. No differences in breeding success were registered for storks nesting on electricity pylons versus other structures, but a high risk of mortality by collision and electrocution with power lines was estimated. We discuss the implications of this behavioral change, and of the management responses by power line companies, both for stork populations and for managers.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Stemen, Don; Rengifo, Andres F.
2011-01-01
Background: In recent years, several states have created mandatory prison-diversion programs for felony drug possessors. These programs have both individual-level goals of reducing recidivism rates and system-level goals of reducing prison populations. Objective: This study examines the individual level and system level impact of Kansas' Senate…
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Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970-2005.
Logan, John R; Issar, Sukriti; Xu, Zengwang
2016-10-01
Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970-2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal-a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm's way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices.
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Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation.
Pearce-Higgins, James W; Ockendon, Nancy; Baker, David J; Carr, Jamie; White, Elizabeth C; Almond, Rosamunde E A; Amano, Tatsuya; Bertram, Esther; Bradbury, Richard B; Bradley, Cassie; Butchart, Stuart H M; Doswald, Nathalie; Foden, Wendy; Gill, David J C; Green, Rhys E; Sutherland, William J; Tanner, Edmund V J
2015-11-07
Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes. © 2015 The Author(s).
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Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R.; Foil, Lane D.
2016-01-01
The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes. PMID:26755069
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Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005
Logan, John R.; Issar, Sukriti; Xu, Zengwang
2016-01-01
Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970–2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal—a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm’s way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices. PMID:27531504
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dhondt, S.; Beckx, C.; Degraeuwe, B.; Lefebvre, W.; Kochan, B.; Bellemans, T.; Int Panis, L.; Macharis, C.; Putman, K.
2012-11-01
By focussing on air pollutant concentration levels only, the variation in population mobility is not taken into account when assessing the exposure. Transportation policies have an impact on both concentration levels and mobility patterns. The impact of a fuel price increase policy on population exposure to elemental carbon (EC) was evaluated and compared to the base scenario (current situation), taking into account time-activity patterns - including time in commute. We assessed the effect on exposure of both the change in concentrations and whereabouts. The decrease in exposure due to the fuel price increase using residential information only was limited to areas near highways and urban centres. Integrating population movement, exposures to EC were higher and the decrease in exposure was no longer limited to areas near traffic hotspots. For inhabitants of urban areas, the exposure integrating time-activity patterns was more similar to the residential exposure, as they spent more time in their own neighbourhood. For people living further away from traffic hotspots, the estimated impact of the policy was higher than expected for residential exposure. These people profited both from the higher decrease in concentrations at their work/shop/leisure destinations in more urban areas and, as they have to travel longer, also had a larger gain from the high decrease in concentrations during transport. Therefore, the impact of changing concentrations is underestimated when using residential exposure only. These results show the importance of taking into activity-travel patterns when planning future actions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Catano, Christopher P.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Beerens, James M.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Brandt, Laura A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Trexler, Joel C.
2015-04-01
It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.
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Catano, Christopher P.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Beerens, James M.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Brandt, Laura A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Trexler, Joel C.
2015-01-01
It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.
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Catano, Christopher P; Romañach, Stephanie S; Beerens, James M; Pearlstine, Leonard G; Brandt, Laura A; Hart, Kristen M; Mazzotti, Frank J; Trexler, Joel C
2015-04-01
It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.
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Septic tank additive impacts on microbial populations.
Pradhan, S; Hoover, M T; Clark, G H; Gumpertz, M; Wollum, A G; Cobb, C; Strock, J
2008-01-01
Environmental health specialists, other onsite wastewater professionals, scientists, and homeowners have questioned the effectiveness of septic tank additives. This paper describes an independent, third-party, field scale, research study of the effects of three liquid bacterial septic tank additives and a control (no additive) on septic tank microbial populations. Microbial populations were measured quarterly in a field study for 12 months in 48 full-size, functioning septic tanks. Bacterial populations in the 48 septic tanks were statistically analyzed with a mixed linear model. Additive effects were assessed for three septic tank maintenance levels (low, intermediate, and high). Dunnett's t-test for tank bacteria (alpha = .05) indicated that none of the treatments were significantly different, overall, from the control at the statistical level tested. In addition, the additives had no significant effects on septic tank bacterial populations at any of the septic tank maintenance levels. Additional controlled, field-based research iswarranted, however, to address additional additives and experimental conditions.
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A review of the health impacts of barium from natural and anthropogenic exposure.
Kravchenko, Julia; Darrah, Thomas H; Miller, Richard K; Lyerly, H Kim; Vengosh, Avner
2014-08-01
There is an increasing public awareness of the relatively new and expanded industrial barium uses which are potential sources of human exposure (e.g., a shale gas development that causes an increased awareness of environmental exposures to barium). However, absorption of barium in exposed humans and a full spectrum of its health effects, especially among chronically exposed to moderate and low doses of barium populations, remain unclear. We suggest a systematic literature review (from 1875 to 2014) on environmental distribution of barium, its bioaccumulation, and potential and proven health impacts (in animal models and humans) to provide the information that can be used for optimization of future experimental and epidemiological studies and developing of mitigative and preventive strategies to minimize negative health effects in exposed populations. The potential health effects of barium exposure are largely based on animal studies, while epidemiological data for humans, specifically for chronic low-level exposures, are sparse. The reported health effects include cardiovascular and kidney diseases, metabolic, neurological, and mental disorders. Age, race, dietary patterns, behavioral risks (e.g., smoking), use of medications (those that interfere with absorbed barium in human organism), and specific physiological status (e.g., pregnancy) can modify barium effects on human health. Identifying, evaluating, and predicting the health effects of chronic low-level and moderate-level barium exposures in humans is challenging: Future research is needed to develop an understanding of barium bioaccumulation in order to mitigate its potential health impacts in various exposured populations. Further, while occupationally exposed at-risk populations exist, it is also important to identify potentially vulnerable subgroups among non-occupationally exposed populations (e.g., elderly, pregnant women, children) who are at higher risk of barium exposure from drinking water and food.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Perz, Stephen G.; Walker, Robert T.; Caldas, Marcellus M.
2006-01-01
Most research featuring demographic factors in environmental change has focused on processes operating at the level of national or global populations. This paper focuses on household-level demographic life cycles among colonists in the Amazon, and evaluates the impacts on land use allocation. The analysis goes beyond prior research by including a broader suite of demographic variables, and by simultaneously assessing their impacts on multiple land uses with different economic and ecological implications. We estimate a system of structural equations that accounts for endogeneity among land uses, and the findings indicate stronger demographic effects than previous work. These findings bear implications for modeling land use, and the place of demography in environmental research.
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Caron-Lormier, Geoffrey; Harvey, Naomi D; England, Gary C W; Asher, Lucy
2016-01-01
In a resource-limited world, organisations attempting to reduce the impact of health or behaviour issues need to choose carefully how to allocate resources for the highest overall impact. However, such choices may not always be obvious. Which has the biggest impact? A large change to a small number of individuals, or a small change to a large number of individuals? The challenge is identifying the issues that have the greatest impact on the population so potential interventions can be prioritised. We addressed this by developing a score to quantify the impact of health conditions and behaviour problems in a population of working guide dogs using data from Guide Dogs, UK. The cumulative incidence of different issues was combined with information about their impact, in terms of reduction in working life, to create a work score. The work score was created at population-level to illustrate issues with the greatest impact on the population and to understand contributions of breeds or crossbreeds to the workforce. An individual work deficit score was also created and means of this score used to illustrate the impact on working life within a subgroup of the population such as a breed, or crossbreed generation. The work deficit scores showed that those removed for behavioural issues had a greater impact on the overall workforce than those removed for health reasons. Additionally trends over time illustrated the positive influence of interventions Guide Dogs have made to improve their workforce. Information highlighted by these scores is pertinent to the effort of Guide Dogs to ensure partnerships are lasting. Recognising that the scores developed here could be transferable to a wide variety of contexts and species, most notably human work force decisions; we discuss possible uses and adaptations such as reduction in lifespan, quality of life and yield in production animals.
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Caron-Lormier, Geoffrey; England, Gary C. W.; Asher, Lucy
2016-01-01
In a resource-limited world, organisations attempting to reduce the impact of health or behaviour issues need to choose carefully how to allocate resources for the highest overall impact. However, such choices may not always be obvious. Which has the biggest impact? A large change to a small number of individuals, or a small change to a large number of individuals? The challenge is identifying the issues that have the greatest impact on the population so potential interventions can be prioritised. We addressed this by developing a score to quantify the impact of health conditions and behaviour problems in a population of working guide dogs using data from Guide Dogs, UK. The cumulative incidence of different issues was combined with information about their impact, in terms of reduction in working life, to create a work score. The work score was created at population-level to illustrate issues with the greatest impact on the population and to understand contributions of breeds or crossbreeds to the workforce. An individual work deficit score was also created and means of this score used to illustrate the impact on working life within a subgroup of the population such as a breed, or crossbreed generation. The work deficit scores showed that those removed for behavioural issues had a greater impact on the overall workforce than those removed for health reasons. Additionally trends over time illustrated the positive influence of interventions Guide Dogs have made to improve their workforce. Information highlighted by these scores is pertinent to the effort of Guide Dogs to ensure partnerships are lasting. Recognising that the scores developed here could be transferable to a wide variety of contexts and species, most notably human work force decisions; we discuss possible uses and adaptations such as reduction in lifespan, quality of life and yield in production animals. PMID:27829045
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Noise levels near streets, effectiveness and cost abatement measures
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lang, J.
1980-01-01
During the years 1975-1978, research was carried concerning the current noise levels near streets, the annoyance felt by the population, possible noise abatement measures for these streets, and the economic impact of such measures. The results of the research are summarized.
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Liu, Yifei; Li, Dawei; Yan, Ling; Huang, Hongwen
2015-01-01
Polyploidy and hybridization are thought to have significant impacts on both the evolution and diversification of the genus Actinidia, but the structure and patterns of morphology and molecular diversity relating to ploidy variation of wild Actinidia plants remain much less understood. Here, we examine the distribution of morphological variation and ploidy levels along geographic and environmental variables of a large mixed-ploidy population of the A. chinensis species complex. We then characterize the extent of both genetic and epigenetic diversity and differentiation exhibited between individuals of different ploidy levels. Our results showed that while there are three ploidy levels in this population, hexaploids were constituted the majority (70.3%). Individuals with different ploidy levels were microgeographically structured in relation to elevation and extent of niche disturbance. The morphological characters examined revealed clear difference between diploids and hexaploids, however tetraploids exhibited intermediate forms. Both genetic and epigenetic diversity were high but the differentiation among cytotypes was weak, suggesting extensive gene flow and/or shared ancestral variation occurred in this population even across ploidy levels. Epigenetic variation was clearly correlated with changes in altitudes, a trend of continuous genetic variation and gradual increase of epigenomic heterogeneities of individuals was also observed. Our results show that complex interactions between the locally microgeographical environment, ploidy and gene flow impact A. chinensis genetic and epigenetic variation. We posit that an increase in ploidy does not broaden the species habitat range, but rather permits A. chinensis adaptation to specific niches.
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Derks, E M; Zwinderman, A H; Gamazon, E R
2017-05-01
Population divergence impacts the degree of population stratification in Genome Wide Association Studies. We aim to: (i) investigate type-I error rate as a function of population divergence (F ST ) in multi-ethnic (admixed) populations; (ii) evaluate the statistical power and effect size estimates; and (iii) investigate the impact of population stratification on the results of gene-based analyses. Quantitative phenotypes were simulated. Type-I error rate was investigated for Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) with varying levels of F ST between the ancestral European and African populations. Type-II error rate was investigated for a SNP characterized by a high value of F ST . In all tests, genomic MDS components were included to correct for population stratification. Type-I and type-II error rate was adequately controlled in a population that included two distinct ethnic populations but not in admixed samples. Statistical power was reduced in the admixed samples. Gene-based tests showed no residual inflation in type-I error rate.
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Applying operations research to optimize a novel population management system for cancer screening.
Zai, Adrian H; Kim, Seokjin; Kamis, Arnold; Hung, Ken; Ronquillo, Jeremiah G; Chueh, Henry C; Atlas, Steven J
2014-02-01
To optimize a new visit-independent, population-based cancer screening system (TopCare) by using operations research techniques to simulate changes in patient outreach staffing levels (delegates, navigators), modifications to user workflow within the information technology (IT) system, and changes in cancer screening recommendations. TopCare was modeled as a multiserver, multiphase queueing system. Simulation experiments implemented the queueing network model following a next-event time-advance mechanism, in which systematic adjustments were made to staffing levels, IT workflow settings, and cancer screening frequency in order to assess their impact on overdue screenings per patient. TopCare reduced the average number of overdue screenings per patient from 1.17 at inception to 0.86 during simulation to 0.23 at steady state. Increases in the workforce improved the effectiveness of TopCare. In particular, increasing the delegate or navigator staff level by one person improved screening completion rates by 1.3% or 12.2%, respectively. In contrast, changes in the amount of time a patient entry stays on delegate and navigator lists had little impact on overdue screenings. Finally, lengthening the screening interval increased efficiency within TopCare by decreasing overdue screenings at the patient level, resulting in a smaller number of overdue patients needing delegates for screening and a higher fraction of screenings completed by delegates. Simulating the impact of changes in staffing, system parameters, and clinical inputs on the effectiveness and efficiency of care can inform the allocation of limited resources in population management.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.
2015-05-01
This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any.more » Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ragonnet, Romain; Trauer, James M.; Denholm, Justin T.; Geard, Nicholas L.; Hellard, Margaret; McBryde, Emma S.
2015-10-01
Vaccine effect, as measured in clinical trials, may not accurately reflect population-level impact. Furthermore, little is known about how sensitive apparent or real vaccine impacts are to factors such as the risk of re-infection or the mechanism of protection. We present a dynamic compartmental model to simulate vaccination for endemic infections. Several measures of effectiveness are calculated to compare the real and apparent impact of vaccination, and assess the effect of a range of infection and vaccine characteristics on these measures. Although broadly correlated, measures of real and apparent vaccine effectiveness can differ widely. Vaccine impact is markedly underestimated when primary infection provides partial natural immunity, when coverage is high and when post-vaccination infectiousness is reduced. Despite equivalent efficacy, ‘all or nothing’ vaccines are more effective than ‘leaky’ vaccines, particularly in settings with high risk of re-infection and transmissibility. Latent periods result in greater real impacts when risk of re-infection is high, but this effect diminishes if partial natural immunity is assumed. Assessments of population-level vaccine effects against endemic infections from clinical trials may be significantly biased, and vaccine and infection characteristics should be considered when modelling outcomes of vaccination programs, as their impact may be dramatic.
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Ragonnet, Romain; Trauer, James M.; Denholm, Justin T.; Geard, Nicholas L.; Hellard, Margaret; McBryde, Emma S.
2015-01-01
Vaccine effect, as measured in clinical trials, may not accurately reflect population-level impact. Furthermore, little is known about how sensitive apparent or real vaccine impacts are to factors such as the risk of re-infection or the mechanism of protection. We present a dynamic compartmental model to simulate vaccination for endemic infections. Several measures of effectiveness are calculated to compare the real and apparent impact of vaccination, and assess the effect of a range of infection and vaccine characteristics on these measures. Although broadly correlated, measures of real and apparent vaccine effectiveness can differ widely. Vaccine impact is markedly underestimated when primary infection provides partial natural immunity, when coverage is high and when post-vaccination infectiousness is reduced. Despite equivalent efficacy, ‘all or nothing’ vaccines are more effective than ‘leaky’ vaccines, particularly in settings with high risk of re-infection and transmissibility. Latent periods result in greater real impacts when risk of re-infection is high, but this effect diminishes if partial natural immunity is assumed. Assessments of population-level vaccine effects against endemic infections from clinical trials may be significantly biased, and vaccine and infection characteristics should be considered when modelling outcomes of vaccination programs, as their impact may be dramatic. PMID:26482413
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Using economic analyses for local priority setting : the population cost-impact approach.
Heller, Richard F; Gemmell, Islay; Wilson, Edward C F; Fordham, Richard; Smith, Richard D
2006-01-01
Standard methods of economic analysis may not be suitable for local decision making that is specific to a particular population. We describe a new three-step methodology, termed 'population cost-impact analysis', which provides a population perspective to the costs and benefits of alternative interventions. The first two steps involve calculating the population impact and the costs of the proposed interventions relevant to local conditions. This involves the calculation of population impact measures (which have been previously described but are not currently used extensively) - measures of absolute risk and risk reduction, applied to a population denominator. In step three, preferences of policy-makers are obtained. This is in contrast to the QALY approach in which quality weights are obtained as a part of the measurement of benefit. We applied the population cost-impact analysis method to a comparison of two interventions - increasing the use of beta-adrenoceptor antagonists (beta-blockers) and smoking cessation - after myocardial infarction in a scaled-back notional local population of 100,000 people in England. Twenty-two public health professionals were asked via a questionnaire to rank the order in which they would implement four interventions. They were given information on both population cost impact and QALYs for each intervention. In a population of 100,000 people, moving from current to best practice for beta-adrenoceptor antagonists and smoking cessation will prevent 11 and 4 deaths (or gain of 127 or 42 life-years), respectively. The cost per event prevented in the next year, or life-year gained, is less for beta-adrenoceptor antagonists than for smoking cessation. Public health professionals were found to be more inclined to rank alternative interventions according to the population cost impact than the QALY approach. The use of the population cost-impact approach allows information on the benefits of moving from current to best practice to be presented in terms of the benefits and costs to a particular population. The process for deciding between alternative interventions in a prioritisation exercise may differ according to the local context. We suggest that the valuation of the benefit is performed after the benefits have been quantified and that it takes into account local issues relevant to prioritisation. It would be an appropriate next step to experiment with, and formalise, this part of the population cost-impact analysis to provide a standardised approach for determining willingness to pay and provide a ranking of priorities. Our method adds a new dimension to economic analysis, the ability to identify costs and benefits of potential interventions to a defined population, which may be of considerable use for policy makers working at the local level.
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VanLandeghem, Matthew M.; Farooqi, Mukhtar; Farquhar, B.; Patino, Reynaldo
2013-01-01
Several reservoirs in the upper Colorado River and Brazos River basins in Texas have experienced toxic blooms of golden alga Prymnesium parvum and associated fish kills since 2001. There is a paucity of information, however, regarding the population-level effects of such kills in large reservoirs, species-specific resistance to or recovery from kills, or potential differences in the patterns of impacts among basins. We used multiple before-after, control-impact analysis to determine whether repeated golden alga blooms have led to declines in the relative abundance and size structure of fish populations. Sustained declines were noted for 9 of 12 fish species surveyed in the upper Colorado River, whereas only one of eight species was impacted by golden alga in the Brazos River. In the upper Colorado River, White Bass Morone chrysops, White Crappie Pomoxis annularis, Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus, River Carpsucker Carpiodes carpio, Freshwater Drum Aplodinotus grunniens, Channel Catfish Ictalurus punctatus, Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris, and Blue Catfish I. furcatus exhibited sustained declines in relative abundance, size structure, or both; Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, Longnose Gar Lepisosteus osseus, and Common Carp Cyprinus carpio did not exhibit those declines. In the Brazos River, only the relative abundance of Blue Catfish was impacted. Overall, toxic golden alga blooms can negatively impact fish populations over the long-term, but the patterns of impact can vary considerably among river basins and species. In the Brazos River, populations of most fish species appear to be healthy, suggesting a positive angling outlook for this basin. In the upper Colorado River, fish populations have been severely impacted, and angling opportunities have been reduced. Basin-specific management plans aimed at improving water quality and quantity will likely reduce bloom intensity and allow recovery of fish populations to the abundances and size structures present before golden alga. Received August 26, 2011; accepted November 25, 2012
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A system for evaluating the impact of noise pollution on the population's health.
Bressane, Adriano; Mochizuki, Patricia Satie; Caram, Rosana Maria; Roveda, José Arnaldo Frutuoso
2016-05-01
The aim of this study was to develop a support system for the evaluation of noise pollution, applied to the central urban area of Rio Claro, São Paulo State, Brazil. Data were obtained from noise measurements and interviews with the population, generating the following indicators: equivalent sound level (Leq ), traffic noise index (LTNI ), and a participatory diagnosis (Dp ), integrated through a fuzzy inference system (FIS). The proposed system allowed classifying the measurement points according to the degree of impact of noise pollution on the population's health (IPS ) in the study area. Impact was considered significant in 31.4% of the measurement points and very significant in 62.9%. The FIS can be adjusted to local conditions, allowing generalization and thus also supporting noise pollution evaluation and respective environmental noise management in other geographic areas.
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de Camargo, Crisley; Gibbs, H Lisle; Costa, Mariellen C; Del-Rio, Glaucia; Silveira, Luís F; Wasko, Adriane P; Francisco, Mercival R
2015-01-01
Small populations of endangered species can be impacted by genetic processes such as drift and inbreeding that reduce population viability. As such, conservation genetic analyses that assess population levels of genetic variation and levels of gene flow can provide important information for managing threatened species. The São Paulo Marsh Antwren (Formicivora paludicola) is a recently-described and critically endangered bird from São Paulo State (Brazil) whose total estimated population is around 250-300 individuals, distributed in only 15 isolated marshes around São Paulo metropolitan region. We used microsatellite DNA markers to estimate the population genetic characteristics of the three largest remaining populations of this species all within 60 km of each other. We detected a high and significant genetic structure between all populations (overall FST = 0.103) which is comparable to the highest levels of differentiation ever documented for birds, (e.g., endangered birds found in isolated populations on the tops of African mountains), but also evidence for first-generation immigrants, likely from small local unsampled populations. Effective population sizes were small (between 28.8-99.9 individuals) yet there are high levels of genetic variability within populations and no evidence for inbreeding. Conservation implications of this work are that the high levels of genetic structure suggests that translocations between populations need to be carefully considered in light of possible local adaptation and that remaining populations of these birds should be managed as conservation units that contain both main populations studied here but also small outlying populations which may be a source of immigrants.
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Genetic Structure and Gene Flows within Horses: A Genealogical Study at the French Population Scale
Pirault, Pauline; Danvy, Sophy; Verrier, Etienne; Leroy, Grégoire
2013-01-01
Since horse breeds constitute populations submitted to variable and multiple outcrossing events, we analyzed the genetic structure and gene flows considering horses raised in France. We used genealogical data, with a reference population of 547,620 horses born in France between 2002 and 2011, grouped according to 55 breed origins. On average, individuals had 6.3 equivalent generations known. Considering different population levels, fixation index decreased from an overall species FIT of 1.37%, to an average of −0.07% when considering the 55 origins, showing that most horse breeds constitute populations without genetic structure. We illustrate the complexity of gene flows existing among horse breeds, a few populations being closed to foreign influence, most, however, being submitted to various levels of introgression. In particular, Thoroughbred and Arab breeds are largely used as introgression sources, since those two populations explain together 26% of founder origins within the overall horse population. When compared with molecular data, breeds with a small level of coancestry also showed low genetic distance; the gene pool of the breeds was probably impacted by their reproducer exchanges. PMID:23630596
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Renard, Françoise; Gadeyne, Sylvie; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Tafforeau, Jean; Deboosere, Patrick
2017-04-01
Reducing socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, a key public health objective may be supported by a careful monitoring and assessment of the contributions of specific causes of death to the global inequality. The 1991 and 2001 Belgian censuses were linked with cause-of-death data, each yielding a study population of over 5 million individuals aged 25-64, followed up for 5 years. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) were computed by educational level (EL) and cause. Inequalities were measured through rate differences (RDs), rate ratios (RRs) and population attributable fractions (PAFs). We analysed changes in educational inequalities between the 1990s and the 2000s, and decomposed the PAF into the main causes of death. All-cause and avoidable ASMR decreased in all ELs and both sexes. Lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and suicide in men, and IHD, stroke, lung cancer and COPD in women had the highest impact on population mortality. RDs decreased in men but increased in women. RRs and PAFs increased in both sexes, albeit more in women. In men, the impact of lung cancer and COPD inequalities on population mortality decreased while that of suicide and IHD increased. In women, the impact of all causes except IHD increased. Absolute inequalities decreased in men while increasing in women; relative inequalities increased in both sexes. The PAFs decomposition revealed that targeting mortality inequalities from lung cancer, IHD, COPD in both sexes, suicide in men and stroke in women would have the largest impact at population level. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
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P.E.O.P.L.E. 32: B.C. College Region Population Projections
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development, 2007
2007-01-01
Each year BC Stats, Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services, projects the population of British Columbia (BC) and its regions. These projections are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration levels. Assumptions are derived from demographic trends modified to include potential impacts of future economic factors. The…
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Forest trees tend to be genetically diverse, a condition related to their longevity, outcrossing mating system and extensive gene flow that maintains high levels of genetic diversity within populations. Forest pest epidemics are responsible for many historic and contemporary population declines repo...
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Genome signatures of artificial selection in U.S. Jersey cattle were identified by examining changes in haplotype homozygosity for a resource population of animals born between 1962 and 2005. Genetic merit of this population changed dramatically during this period for a number of traits, especially ...
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Yoo, Hyosang; Shin, Dong Wook; Jeong, Ansuk; Kim, So Young; Yang, Hyung-Kook; Kim, Jun Suk; Lee, Ji Eun; Oh, Jae Hwan; Park, Eun-Cheol; Park, Keeho; Park, Jong-Hyock
2017-08-01
It is well known that cancer patients' perception of social support is associated with their depressive symptoms and health-related quality of life. However, there have been little studies that compared the variates of cancer patients with the general population. We sought to compare differences in the level of perceived social support and the impact of perceived social support on depressive symptoms and health-related quality of life between cancer survivors and the general population. Data were collected from 1818 cancer patients treated at the National Cancer Center and regional cancer centers in South Korea. The control group of the general population was composed of 2000 individuals without cancer from community. Cancer patients reported significantly higher level of perceived social support than the general population, while they reported lower health-related quality of life and were more susceptible to depression. The positive associations of higher perceived social support with lower depressive symptoms, as well as with higher health-related quality of life, were stronger among cancer patients than among the general population. The interaction effect suggests that the impact of social support would be stronger among cancer patients than the general public. Thus, it would be beneficial to pay attention to providing social support to cancer patients, particularly to those who are more vulnerable. Furthermore, investigation of the most effective and efficient methods to deliver social support interventions would be worthwhile. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and ...
The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O3) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics.
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Sea Level Rise Impacts On Infrastructure Vulnerability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pasqualini, D.; Mccown, A. W.; Backhaus, S.; Urban, N. M.
2015-12-01
Increase of global sea level is one of the potential consequences of climate change and represents a threat for the U.S.A coastal regions, which are highly populated and home of critical infrastructures. The potential danger caused by sea level rise may escalate if sea level rise is coupled with an increase in frequency and intensity of storms that may strike these regions. These coupled threats present a clear risk to population and critical infrastructure and are concerns for Federal, State, and particularly local response and recovery planners. Understanding the effect of sea level rise on the risk to critical infrastructure is crucial for long planning and for mitigating potential damages. In this work we quantify how infrastructure vulnerability to a range of storms changes due to an increase of sea level. Our study focuses on the Norfolk area of the U.S.A. We assess the direct damage of drinking water and wastewater facilities and the power sector caused by a distribution of synthetic hurricanes. In addition, our analysis estimates indirect consequences of these damages on population and economic activities accounting also for interdependencies across infrastructures. While projections unanimously indicate an increase in the rate of sea level rise, the scientific community does not agree on the size of this rate. Our risk assessment accounts for this uncertainty simulating a distribution of sea level rise for a specific climate scenario. Using our impact assessment results and assuming an increase of future hurricanes frequencies and intensities, we also estimate the expected benefits for critical infrastructure.
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Multilevel Interventions To Address Health Disparities Show Promise In Improving Population Health.
Paskett, Electra; Thompson, Beti; Ammerman, Alice S; Ortega, Alexander N; Marsteller, Jill; Richardson, DeJuran
2016-08-01
Multilevel interventions are those that affect at least two levels of influence-for example, the patient and the health care provider. They can be experimental designs or natural experiments caused by changes in policy, such as the implementation of the Affordable Care Act or local policies. Measuring the effects of multilevel interventions is challenging, because they allow for interaction among levels, and the impact of each intervention must be assessed and translated into practice. We discuss how two projects from the National Institutes of Health's Centers for Population Health and Health Disparities used multilevel interventions to reduce health disparities. The interventions, which focused on the uptake of the human papillomavirus vaccine and community-level dietary change, had mixed results. The design and implementation of multilevel interventions are facilitated by input from the community, and more advanced methods and measures are needed to evaluate the impact of the various levels and components of such interventions. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.
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Cumulative Effects of Human Activities on Marine Mammal Populations
2015-09-30
marine mammals and sea turtles. She has studied habitat use of whales and dolphins, underwater sound levels and environmental impacts of offshore wind ... turbines on marine mammals, and migration pathways and hot spots of marine predators at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as part...distribution of wild animal and plant populations, and the use of computer-intensive methods to fit and compare stochastic models of wildlife population
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Where to deploy pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in sub-Saharan Africa?
Verguet, Stéphane; Stalcup, Meg; Walsh, Julia A
2013-12-01
Two randomised controlled trials showed that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) reduces HIV transmission between heterosexual men and women. We model the potential impact on transmission and cost-effectiveness of providing PrEP in sub-Saharan Africa. We use a deterministic, compartmental model of HIV transmission to evaluate the potential of a 5-year PrEP intervention targeting the adult population of 42 sub-Saharan African countries. We examine the incremental impact of adding PrEP at pre-existing levels of male circumcision and antiretroviral therapy (ART). The base case assumes efficacy of 68%; adherence at 80%; country coverage at 10% of the HIV-uninfected adult population; and annual costs of PrEP and ART at US$200 and US$880 per person, respectively. After 5 years, 390,000 HIV infections (95% UR 190,000 to 630,000) would be prevented, 24% of these in South Africa. HIV infections averted per 100 000 people (adult) would range from 500 in Lesotho to 10 in Somalia. Incremental cost-effectiveness would be US$5800/disability-adjusted life year (DALY) (95% UR 3100 to 13500). Cost-effectiveness would range from US$500/DALY in Lesotho to US$44 600/DALY in Eritrea. In a general adult population, PrEP is a high-cost intervention which will have maximum impact and be cost-effective only in countries that have high levels of HIV burden and low levels of male circumcision in the population. Hence, PrEP will likely be most effective in Southern Africa as a targeted intervention added to existing strategies to control the HIV pandemic.
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Impact of Neuropathic Pain at the Population Level
Vieira, Ana Shirley Maranhao; Baptista, Abrahao Fontes; Mendes, Livia; Silva, Kamilla Soares; Gois, Sharize Cristine de Araujo; Lima, Flavia Manoela de Almeida; Souza, Israel; Sa, Katia Nunes
2014-01-01
Background One of the chief complaints of individuals who frequent the Family Health Units is chronic pain which, in Salvador, affects over 40% of the population. However, little is known about the type of pain and its impact on quality of life (QoL) at population level. The aim of the study is to evaluate the impact of neuropathic pain on QoL in a community. Methods A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted from March to October 2012, in a Family Health Unit, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. The DN-4 (type of pain), body map (location), VAS (intensity) and SF-36 (QoL) instruments were applied. The Chi-square (univariate analysis) and logistic regression (multivariate) tests were used, with IC 95% and P < 0.05. Results In a sample of 191 individuals with chronic pain, predominantly women (86.4%), single (48.7%), nonwhite (93.2%), low educational (46.6%) and low economic (100%) level. The most affected locations of the body were knees, lumbar region and head. In 60.2% of interviewees, neuropathic pain, of high intensity (VAS = 7.09 ± 3.0) predominated, with duration of 8.53 ± 8.8 years and mean QoL was reduced in 47.13%. Conclusions Intense pain in the dorsal region and type of neuropathy are independent predictors for greater compromise of QoL. PMID:24578752
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Scarborough, Peter; Harrington, Richard A.; Mizdrak, Anja; Zhou, Lijuan Marissa; Doherty, Aiden
2014-01-01
Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed. PMID:25328757
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Marine fisheries declines viewed upside down: human impacts on consumer-driven nutrient recycling.
Layman, Craig A; Allgeier, Jacob E; Rosemond, Amy D; Dahlgren, Craig P; Yeager, Lauren A
2011-03-01
We quantified how two human impacts (overfishing and habitat fragmentation) in nearshore marine ecosystems may affect ecosystem function by altering the role of fish as nutrient vectors. We empirically quantified size-specific excretion rates of one of the most abundant fishes (gray snapper, Lutjanus griseus) in The Bahamas and combined these with surveys of fish abundance to estimate population-level excretion rates. The study was conducted across gradients of two human disturbances: overfishing and ecosystem fragmentation (estuaries bisected by roads), to evaluate how each could result in reduced population-level nutrient cycling by consumers. Mean estimated N and P excretion rates for gray snapper populations were on average 456% and 541% higher, respectively, in unfished sites. Ecosystem fragmentation resulted in significant reductions of recycling rates by snapper, with degree of creek fragmentation explaining 86% and 72% of the variance in estimated excretion for dissolved N and P, respectively. Additionally, we used nutrient limitation assays and primary producer nutrient content to provide a simple example of how marine fishery declines may affect primary production. This study provides an initial step toward integrating marine fishery declines and consumer-driven nutrient recycling to more fully understand the implications of human impacts in marine ecosystems.
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Salva I Tomas, P A
1991-01-01
The impact of tourism on population trends in Spain's Balearic Islands since 1950 is analyzed. The author notes that tourism generated high levels of in-migration and an increase in fertility until about 1975. Subsequently, the birth rate has declined, population growth has slowed down, and the population has grown older. There is still a noticeable contrast between the demography of coastal areas and inland agrarian regions. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)
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Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast
Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.
2013-01-01
The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.
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Public health research: lost in translation or speaking the wrong language?
Kansagra, Susan M; Farley, Thomas A
2011-12-01
Public health leaders, like physicians, need to make decisions that impact health based on strong evidence. To generate useful evidence for public health leaders, research must focus on interventions that have potential to impact population-level health. Often policy and environmental changes are the interventions with the greatest potential impact on population health, but studying these is difficult because of limitations in the methods typically used and emphasized in health research. To create useful evidence for policy and environmental interventions, other research methods are needed, including observational studies, the use of surveillance data for evaluation, and predictive mathematical modeling. More emphasis is needed on these types of study designs by researchers, funding agencies, and scientific journals.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cartwright, D. C.; Trajmar, S.; Williams, W.
1971-01-01
Use of new electron impact excitation cross sections for the six lowest triplet states (A, B, W, C, E, D) of N2, and solution of the coupled equations of statistical equilibrium to obtain the vibrational population of each electronic state. The results show that cascade from high levels of the A super 3 sigma sub u(+) state and from the W super 3 delta sub u state is significant in populating the lower vibrational levels of the B state and hence the character of its ?apparent' excitation cross sections. For the B state excited under auroral conditions, the fraction of the total population due to cascade processes exceeds 25% for all levels lower than 7 and is greater than 80% for B(v' = 0). For the A state under similar conditions, cascade from the B state contributes 50% or more of the total vibrational population for levels lower than 7, and 80% or more for levels below 4. For levels of the A state greater than 7, the A yields B transitions depopulate the levels rapidly and indicate that the Vegard-Kaplan emissions from these higher levels will be weak or totally absent in normal auroras.
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Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment.
Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Akçakaya, H Resit
2017-02-01
Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population-level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input-parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input-parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea-level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.
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High migration rates shape the postglacial history of amphi-Atlantic bryophytes.
Désamoré, Aurélie; Patiño, Jairo; Mardulyn, Patrick; Mcdaniel, Stuart F; Zanatta, Florian; Laenen, Benjamin; Vanderpoorten, Alain
2016-11-01
Paleontological evidence and current patterns of angiosperm species richness suggest that European biota experienced more severe bottlenecks than North American ones during the last glacial maximum. How well this pattern fits other plant species is less clear. Bryophytes offer a unique opportunity to contrast the impact of the last glacial maximum in North America and Europe because about 60% of the European bryoflora is shared with North America. Here, we use population genetic analyses based on approximate Bayesian computation on eight amphi-Atlantic species to test the hypothesis that North American populations were less impacted by the last glacial maximum, exhibiting higher levels of genetic diversity than European ones and ultimately serving as a refugium for the postglacial recolonization of Europe. In contrast with this hypothesis, the best-fit demographic model involved similar patterns of population size contractions, comparable levels of genetic diversity and balanced migration rates between European and North American populations. Our results thus suggest that bryophytes have experienced comparable demographic glacial histories on both sides of the Atlantic. Although a weak, but significant genetic structure was systematically recovered between European and North American populations, evidence for migration from and towards both continents suggests that amphi-Atlantic bryophyte population may function as a metapopulation network. Reconstructing the biogeographic history of either North American or European bryophyte populations therefore requires a large, trans-Atlantic geographic framework. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Distribution of Usutu Virus in Germany and Its Effect on Breeding Bird Populations
Jöst, Hanna; Cadar, Daniel; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Bosch, Stefan; Tannich, Egbert; Becker, Norbert; Ziegler, Ute; Lachmann, Lars; Schmidt-Chanasit, Jonas
2017-01-01
Usutu virus (USUV) is an emerging mosquitoborne flavivirus with an increasing number of reports from several countries in Europe, where USUV infection has caused high avian mortality rates. However, 20 years after the first observed outbreak of USUV in Europe, there is still no reliable assessment of the large-scale impact of USUV outbreaks on bird populations. In this study, we identified the areas suitable for USUV circulation in Germany and analyzed the effects of USUV on breeding bird populations. We calculated the USUV-associated additional decline of common blackbird (Turdus merula) populations as 15.7% inside USUV-suitable areas but found no significant effect for the other 14 common bird species investigated. Our results show that the emergence of USUV is a further threat for birds in Europe and that the large-scale impact on population levels, at least for common blackbirds, must be considered. PMID:29148399
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Mitikhin, V G; Yastrebov, V S; Mitikhina, I A
ОBJECTIVE: The development and use of population models of mental health in the Russian population to analyze the relationship between indicators of mental disorders, psychiatric care resources taking into account medical/demographic and socio-economic factors in the period of 1992-2015. The sources of information were: 1) the data of the Russian medical statistics on the main indicators of mental health of the Russian population and psychiatric care resources; 2) government statistics on the demographic and socio-economic situation of the population of Russia during this period. The study used system data analysis, correlation and regression analyses. Linear and nonlinear models with a high level of significance were obtained to assess the impact of socio-economic, health and demographic (population, life expectancy, migration, mortality) factors and resources of the service (primarily, manpower) on the dynamics of the main indicators (prevalence, incidence) of mental health of the population. In recent years, a decline in the prevalence and incidence of the Russian population is a consequence of the scarcity of mental health services, in particular, personnel resources.
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Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.
2017-12-01
Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.
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Callréus, M; McGuigan, F; Ringsberg, K; Akesson, K
2012-10-01
Recreational physical activity in 25-year-old women in Sweden increases bone mineral density (BMD) in the trochanter by 5.5% when combining regularity and impact. Jogging and spinning were especially beneficial for hip BMD (6.4-8.5%). Women who enjoyed physical education in school maintained their higher activity level at age 25. The aims of this study were to evaluate the effects of recreational exercise on BMD and describe how exercise patterns change with time in a normal population of young adult women. In a population-based study of 1,061 women, age 25 (±0.2), BMD was measured at total body (TB-BMD), femoral neck (FN-BMD), trochanter (TR-BMD), and spine (LS-BMD). Self-reported physical activity status was assessed by questionnaire. Regularity of exercise was expressed as recreational activity level (RAL) and impact load as peak strain score (PSS). A permutation (COMB-RP) was used to evaluate combined endurance and impacts on bone mass. More than half of the women reported exercising on a regular basis and the most common activities were running, strength training, aerobics, and spinning. Seventy percent participated in at least one activity during the year. Women with high RAL or PSS had higher BMD in the hip (2.6-3.5%) and spine (1.5-2.1%), with the greatest differences resulting from PSS (p < 0.001-0.02). Combined regularity and impact (high-COMB-RP) conferred the greatest gains in BMD (FN 4.7%, TR 5.5%, LS 3.1%; p < 0.001) despite concomitant lower body weight. Jogging and spinning were particularly beneficial for hip BMD (+6.4-8.5%). Women with high-COMB-RP scores enjoyed physical education in school more and maintained higher activity levels throughout compared to those with low scores. Self-reported recreational levels of physical activity positively influence BMD in young adult women but to maximize BMD gains, regular, high-impact exercise is required. Enjoyment of exercise contributes to regularity of exercising which has short- and long-term implications for bone health.
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Baccini, Michela; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina
2017-01-01
Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades. PMID:28678192
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Kendrovski, Vladimir; Baccini, Michela; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina
2017-07-05
Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.
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Mattern, Thomas; Meyer, Stefan; Ellenberg, Ursula; Houston, David M; Darby, John T; Young, Melanie; van Heezik, Yolanda; Seddon, Philip J
2017-01-01
Climate change is a global issue with effects that are difficult to manage at a regional scale. Yet more often than not climate factors are just some of multiple stressors affecting species on a population level. Non-climatic factors-especially those of anthropogenic origins-may play equally important roles with regard to impacts on species and are often more feasible to address. Here we assess the influence of climate change on population trends of the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin ( Megadyptes antipodes ) over the last 30 years, using a Bayesian model. Sea surface temperature (SST) proved to be the dominating factor influencing survival of both adult birds and fledglings. Increasing SST since the mid-1990s was accompanied by a reduction in survival rates and population decline. The population model showed that 33% of the variation in population numbers could be explained by SST alone, significantly increasing pressure on the penguin population. Consequently, the population becomes less resilient to non-climate related impacts, such as fisheries interactions, habitat degradation and human disturbance. However, the extent of the contribution of these factors to declining population trends is extremely difficult to assess principally due to the absence of quantifiable data, creating a discussion bias towards climate variables, and effectively distracting from non-climate factors that can be managed on a regional scale to ensure the viability of the population.
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Guo, Zixiao; Li, Xinnian; He, Ziwen; Yang, Yuchen; Wang, Wenqing; Zhong, Cairong; Greenberg, Anthony J; Wu, Chung-I; Duke, Norman C; Shi, Suhua
2018-04-01
The projected increases in sea levels are expected to affect coastal ecosystems. Tropical communities, anchored by mangrove trees and having experienced frequent past sea level changes, appear to be vibrant at present. However, any optimism about the resilience of these ecosystems is premature because the impact of past climate events may not be reflected in the current abundance. To assess the impact of historical sea level changes, we conducted an extensive genetic diversity survey on the Indo-Malayan coast, a hotspot with a large global mangrove distribution. A survey of 26 populations in six species reveals extremely low genome-wide nucleotide diversity and hence very small effective population sizes (N e ) in all populations. Whole-genome sequencing of three mangrove species further shows the decline in N e to be strongly associated with the speed of past changes in sea level. We also used a recent series of flooding events in Yalong Bay, southern China, to test the robustness of mangroves to sea level changes in relation to their genetic diversity. The events resulted in the death of half of the mangrove trees in this area. Significantly, less genetically diverse mangrove species suffered much greater destruction. The dieback was accompanied by a drastic reduction in local invertebrate biodiversity. We thus predict that tropical coastal communities will be seriously endangered as the global sea level rises. Well-planned coastal development near mangrove forests will be essential to avert this crisis. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Chaiyarat, Rattanawat; Srikosamatara, Sompod
2009-03-01
The Western Forest Complex (WEFCOM) of Thailand is comprised of many protected areas and has one of the highest wildlife populations in the country. Populations of wildlife in the WEFCOM have decreased dramatically over recent years. Rapid economic development has resulted in the conversion of forest into agricultural and pastoral land, which has directly and indirectly impacted the wildlife community. This research aimed to evaluate populations of domesticated cattle (Bos indicus) and buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in the WEFCOM and their possible impacts on the wildlife community. Domesticated cattle and buffalo keepers from 1561 (or 3.3%) of houses in and near WEFCOM were interviewed. The average number of animals per household was 15.6 cattle and 8.5 buffalo. Most villagers released domesticated cattle and buffalo to forage in the protected areas. This tended to have a high impact on the wildlife community in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary and Tungyai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary. The least impacted areas were Luam Khlong Ngu National Park, Thong Pha Phum National Park and Chaleam Ratanakosin National Park. With a high risk to the wildlife community, law enforcement should be used in combination with a certain level of co-management with local communities.
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Impact of Workplace and Other Convenient Vehicle Charging
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Levinson, Rebecca Sobel; West, Todd H.
This work uses market analysis and simulation to explore the potential impact of workplace and similarly convenient away-from-home charging infrastructure (AFHCI) in reducing US light duty vehicle (LDV) petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. The ParaChoice model simulates the evolution of LDV sales, fuel use, and emissions through 2050, considering consumer responses to different options of electric range extension made available through AFHCI, fraction of the population with access, and delay in infrastructure implementation. Results indicate that providing a greater fraction of the population access to level 1 AFHCI for a full workday may provide more benefit than providing levelmore » 2 charging to a lesser fraction. This result holds even considering the fraction of the population without at-home charging. Moreover, delays in infrastructure implementation have no substantial drawbacks for long term petroleum use reduction and EV adoption, though delays will impact short term gains.« less
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The Great Recession and America’s Geography of Unemployment
Thiede, Brian C.; Monnat, Shannon M.
2017-01-01
Background The Great Recession of 2007–2009 was the most severe and lengthy economic crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression. The impacts on the population were multi-dimensional, but operated largely through local labor markets. Objective To examine differences in recession-related changes in county unemployment rates and assess how population and place characteristics shaped these patterns. Methods We calculate and decompose Theil Indexes to describe recession-related changes in the distribution of unemployment rates between counties and states. We use exploratory spatial statistics to identify geographic clusters of counties that experienced similar changes in unemployment. We use spatial regression to evaluate associations between county-level recession impacts on unemployment and demographic composition, industrial structure, and state context. Results The recession was associated with increased inequality between county labor markets within states, but declining between-state differences. Counties that experienced disproportionate recession-related increases in unemployment were spatially clustered and characterized by large shares of historically disadvantaged racial and ethnic minority populations, low educational attainment, and heavy reliance on pro-cyclical industries. Associations between these sources of vulnerability were partially explained by unobserved state-level factors. Conclusions The local consequences of macroeconomic trends are associated with county population characteristics, as well as the structural contexts and policy environments in which they are embedded. The recession placed upward pressure on within-state inequality between local labor market conditions. Contribution To present new estimates of the recession’s impact on local labor markets, quantify how heterogeneous impacts affected the distribution of unemployment prevalence, and identify county characteristics associated with disproportionately large recession-related increases in unemployment. PMID:28663712
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Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise.
Kirwan, Matthew L; Megonigal, J Patrick
2013-12-05
Coastal populations and wetlands have been intertwined for centuries, whereby humans both influence and depend on the extensive ecosystem services that wetlands provide. Although coastal wetlands have long been considered vulnerable to sea-level rise, recent work has identified fascinating feedbacks between plant growth and geomorphology that allow wetlands to actively resist the deleterious effects of sea-level rise. Humans alter the strength of these feedbacks by changing the climate, nutrient inputs, sediment delivery and subsidence rates. Whether wetlands continue to survive sea-level rise depends largely on how human impacts interact with rapid sea-level rise, and socio-economic factors that influence transgression into adjacent uplands.
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Lombard, Catherine B; Harrison, Cheryce L; Kozica, Samantha L; Zoungas, Sophia; Keating, Catherine; Teede, Helena J
2014-06-16
To impact on the obesity epidemic, interventions that prevent weight gain across populations are urgently needed. However, even the most efficacious interventions will have little impact on obesity prevention unless they are successfully implemented in diverse populations and settings. Implementation research takes isolated efficacy studies into practice and policy and is particularly important in obesity prevention where there is an urgent need to accelerate the evidence to practice cycle. Despite the recognised need, few obesity prevention interventions have been implemented in real life settings and to our knowledge rarely target rural communities. Here we describe the rationale, design and implementation of a Healthy Lifestyle Program for women living in small rural communities (HeLP-her Rural). The primary goal of HeLP-her Rural is to prevent weight gain using a low intensity, self-management intervention. Six hundred women from 42 small rural communities in Australia will be randomised as clusters (n-21 control towns and n = 21 intervention towns). A pragmatic randomised controlled trial methodology will test efficacy and a comprehensive mixed methods community evaluation and cost analysis will inform effectiveness and implementation of this novel prevention program. Implementing population interventions to prevent obesity is complex, costly and challenging. To address these barriers, evidence based interventions need to move beyond isolated efficacy trials and report outcomes related to effectiveness and implementation. Large pragmatic trials provide an opportunity to inform both effectiveness and implementation leading to potential for greater impact at the population level. Pragmatic trials should incorporate both effectiveness and implementation outcomes and a multidimensional methodology to inform scale-up to population level. The learnings from this trial will impact on the design and implementation of population obesity prevention strategies nationally and internationally. ANZ clinical trial registry ACTRN12612000115831. Date of registration 24/01/2012.
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Changing Attitudes towards Ageing and the Aged amongst Psychology Students
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Fonseca, Antonio; Goncalves, Daniela; Martin, Ignacio
2009-01-01
Society is ageing. In Europe, the ageing of the population is a recurrent and discussed theme. The impact of the ageing of the population is varied and transversal in different fields. The increase in the number of elderly people implies an increase in the levels of dependence and, consequently, more sanitary, physical, and human resources. Also,…
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Biotic resistance: Exclusion of native rodent consumers releases populations of a weak invader
Dean E. Pearson; Teal Potter; John L. Maron
2012-01-01
Biotic resistance is a commonly invoked hypothesis to explain why most exotic plant species naturalize at low abundance. Although numerous studies have documented negative impacts of native consumers on exotic plant performance, longer-term multi-generation studies are needed to understand how native consumer damage to exotics translates to their population-level...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Saar, Ellu; Räis, Mari Liis
2017-01-01
Ageing populations and accelerating economic change make it increasingly important to update the skill levels of populations over the whole life course. Adult education is believed to allow adults' skills to adapt continuously to constantly changing economic requirements. Both research into adult education, and discussions on lifelong learning…
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Environmental and Intrinsic Correlates of Stress in Free-Ranging Wolves
Molnar, Barbara; Fattebert, Julien; Palme, Rupert; Ciucci, Paolo; Betschart, Bruno; Smith, Douglas W.; Diehl, Peter-Allan
2015-01-01
Background When confronted with a stressor, animals react with several physiological and behavioral responses. Although sustained or repeated stress can result in severe deleterious physiological effects, the causes of stress in free-ranging animals are yet poorly documented. In our study, we aimed at identifying the main factors affecting stress levels in free-ranging wolves (Canis lupus). Methodology/Principal Findings We used fecal cortisol metabolites (FCM) as an index of stress, after validating the method for its application in wolves. We analyzed a total of 450 fecal samples from eleven wolf packs belonging to three protected populations, in Italy (Abruzzo), France (Mercantour), and the United States (Yellowstone). We collected samples during two consecutive winters in each study area. We found no relationship between FCM concentrations and age, sex or social status of individuals. At the group level, our results suggest that breeding pair permanency and the loss of pack members through processes different from dispersal may importantly impact stress levels in wolves. We measured higher FCM levels in comparatively small packs living in sympatry with a population of free-ranging dogs. Lastly, our results indicate that FCM concentrations are associated with endoparasitic infections of individuals. Conclusions/Significance In social mammals sharing strong bonds among group members, the death of one or several members of the group most likely induces important stress in the remainder of the social unit. The potential impact of social and territorial stability on stress levels should be further investigated in free-ranging populations, especially in highly social and in territorial species. As persistent or repeated stressors may facilitate or induce pathologies and physiological alterations that can affect survival and fitness, we advocate considering the potential impact of anthropogenic causes of stress in management and conservation programs regarding wolves and other wildlife. PMID:26398784
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Environmental and Intrinsic Correlates of Stress in Free-Ranging Wolves.
Molnar, Barbara; Fattebert, Julien; Palme, Rupert; Ciucci, Paolo; Betschart, Bruno; Smith, Douglas W; Diehl, Peter-Allan
2015-01-01
When confronted with a stressor, animals react with several physiological and behavioral responses. Although sustained or repeated stress can result in severe deleterious physiological effects, the causes of stress in free-ranging animals are yet poorly documented. In our study, we aimed at identifying the main factors affecting stress levels in free-ranging wolves (Canis lupus). We used fecal cortisol metabolites (FCM) as an index of stress, after validating the method for its application in wolves. We analyzed a total of 450 fecal samples from eleven wolf packs belonging to three protected populations, in Italy (Abruzzo), France (Mercantour), and the United States (Yellowstone). We collected samples during two consecutive winters in each study area. We found no relationship between FCM concentrations and age, sex or social status of individuals. At the group level, our results suggest that breeding pair permanency and the loss of pack members through processes different from dispersal may importantly impact stress levels in wolves. We measured higher FCM levels in comparatively small packs living in sympatry with a population of free-ranging dogs. Lastly, our results indicate that FCM concentrations are associated with endoparasitic infections of individuals. In social mammals sharing strong bonds among group members, the death of one or several members of the group most likely induces important stress in the remainder of the social unit. The potential impact of social and territorial stability on stress levels should be further investigated in free-ranging populations, especially in highly social and in territorial species. As persistent or repeated stressors may facilitate or induce pathologies and physiological alterations that can affect survival and fitness, we advocate considering the potential impact of anthropogenic causes of stress in management and conservation programs regarding wolves and other wildlife.
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Population Impact of Drug Interactions with Warfarin: A Real-World Data Approach.
Martín-Pérez, Mar; Gaist, David; de Abajo, Francisco J; Rodríguez, Luis A García
2018-03-01
To investigate the population impact of previously reported interactions between warfarin and other drugs on international normalized ratio (INR) levels. Using The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a United Kingdom primary care database, a cohort of warfarin users between 2005 and 2013 ( N = 121,962) was followed until the first qualifying prescription for the potential interacting drugs was evaluated. Sixteen sub-cohorts, one for each study drug, and a control sub-cohort of warfarin were ascertained. Short-term changes in INR levels were assessed by comparing INR values measured before and after initiation of the interacting drug with paired Student's t -test. We also evaluated the proportion of patients with INR values outside the therapeutic range (INR: 2-3). Miconazole use was associated with the highest mean increase in INR (+3.35), followed by amiodarone (+1.28), fluconazole (+0.79), metronidazole (+0.75) and nystatin (+0.65). After subtracting the natural INR variation observed in the control sub-cohort, supra-therapeutic levels (INR > 3) were found in 53.2% (miconazole), 45.5% (amiodarone), 23.3% (metronidazole), 23.2% (fluconazole) and 17.6% (nystatin) of patients initiating treatment with these drugs. Carbamazepine use was associated with a mean INR decrease of -0.63 and infra-therapeutic levels (INR < 2) were observed in 46.2% of patients initiating carbamazepine. For all other drugs, the change was small to moderate, in absolute INR units (+0.23 to +0.55) and in the proportion of patients with INR levels out of therapeutic range (<16%). Clinically potentially important interactions were observed in several study drugs. The majority of them, although confirmed, had little impact after adjusting for standard INR variability in the general population of warfarin users. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.
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Dionisio, Kathie L; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Graham, Stephen; Caraway, Nina; Foley, Kristen M; Isaacs, Kristin K
2017-05-01
The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O 3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O 3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O 3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O 3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics. These results indicate the potential for future changes in O 3 exposure as a result of changes in climate that could impact human health.
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de Camargo, Crisley; Gibbs, H. Lisle; Costa, Mariellen C.; Del-Rio, Glaucia; Silveira, Luís F.
2015-01-01
Small populations of endangered species can be impacted by genetic processes such as drift and inbreeding that reduce population viability. As such, conservation genetic analyses that assess population levels of genetic variation and levels of gene flow can provide important information for managing threatened species. The São Paulo Marsh Antwren (Formicivora paludicola) is a recently-described and critically endangered bird from São Paulo State (Brazil) whose total estimated population is around 250–300 individuals, distributed in only 15 isolated marshes around São Paulo metropolitan region. We used microsatellite DNA markers to estimate the population genetic characteristics of the three largest remaining populations of this species all within 60 km of each other. We detected a high and significant genetic structure between all populations (overall F ST = 0.103) which is comparable to the highest levels of differentiation ever documented for birds, (e.g., endangered birds found in isolated populations on the tops of African mountains), but also evidence for first-generation immigrants, likely from small local unsampled populations. Effective population sizes were small (between 28.8–99.9 individuals) yet there are high levels of genetic variability within populations and no evidence for inbreeding. Conservation implications of this work are that the high levels of genetic structure suggests that translocations between populations need to be carefully considered in light of possible local adaptation and that remaining populations of these birds should be managed as conservation units that contain both main populations studied here but also small outlying populations which may be a source of immigrants. PMID:26447791
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Friedman, Jed; Thomas, Duncan
The 1997 Indonesian financial crisis resulted in severe economic dislocation and political upheaval, and the detrimental consequences for economic welfare, physical health, and child education have been established in several studies. The crisis also adversely impacted the psychological well-being of the Indonesian population. Comparing responses of the same individuals interviewed before and after the crisis, we document substantial increases in several different dimensions of psychological distress among male and female adults across the entire age distribution. In addition, the imprint of the crisis can be seen in the differential impacts of the crisis on low education groups, the rural landless, and residents in those provinces that were most affected by the crisis. Elevated levels of psychological distress persist even after indicators of economic well-being such as household consumption had returned to pre-crisis levels, suggesting the deleterious effects of the crisis on the psychological well-being of the Indonesian population may be longer lasting than the impacts on economic well-being.
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Friedman, Jed; Thomas, Duncan
2015-01-01
The 1997 Indonesian financial crisis resulted in severe economic dislocation and political upheaval, and the detrimental consequences for economic welfare, physical health, and child education have been established in several studies. The crisis also adversely impacted the psychological well-being of the Indonesian population. Comparing responses of the same individuals interviewed before and after the crisis, we document substantial increases in several different dimensions of psychological distress among male and female adults across the entire age distribution. In addition, the imprint of the crisis can be seen in the differential impacts of the crisis on low education groups, the rural landless, and residents in those provinces that were most affected by the crisis. Elevated levels of psychological distress persist even after indicators of economic well-being such as household consumption had returned to pre-crisis levels, suggesting the deleterious effects of the crisis on the psychological well-being of the Indonesian population may be longer lasting than the impacts on economic well-being. PMID:25892838
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Impact of the scale-up of piped water on urogenital schistosomiasis infection in rural South Africa
Azongo, Daniel K; Vandormael, Alain; Bärnighausen, Till; Appleton, Christopher
2018-01-01
Recent work has estimated that sub-Saharan Africa could lose US$3.5 billion of economic productivity every year as a result of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis. One of the main interventions to control schistosomiasis is the provision of safe water to limit the contact with infected water bodies and break the cycle of transmission. To date, a rigorous quantification of the impact of safe water supplies on schistosomiasis is lacking. Using data from one of Africa’s largest population-based cohorts, we establish the impact of the scale-up of piped water in a typical rural South African population over a seven-year time horizon. High coverage of piped water in the community decreased a child’s risk of urogenital schistosomiasis infection eight-fold (adjusted odds ratio = 0.12, 95% CI 0.06–0.26, p<0.001). The provision of safe water could drive levels of urogenital schistosomiasis infection to low levels of endemicity in rural African settings. PMID:29460779
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Are You Making an Impact? Evaluating the Population Health Impact of Community Benefit Programs.
Rains, Catherine M; Todd, Greta; Kozma, Nicole; Goodman, Melody S
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act includes a change to the IRS 990 Schedule H, requiring nonprofit hospitals to submit a community health needs assessment every 3 years. Such health care entities are challenged to evaluate the effectiveness of community benefit programs addressing the health needs identified. In an effort to determine the population health impact of community benefit programs in 1 hospital outreach department, researchers and staff conducted an impact evaluation to develop priority areas and overarching goals along with program- and department-level objectives. The longitudinal impact evaluation study design consists of retrospective and prospective secondary data analyses. As an urban pediatric hospital, St Louis Children's Hospital provides an array of community benefit programs to the surrounding community. Hospital staff and researchers came together to form an evaluation team. Data from program evaluation and administrative data for analysis were provided by hospital staff. Impact scores were calculated by scoring objectives as met or unmet and averaged across goals to create impact scores that measure how closely programs meet the overarching departmental mission and goals. Over the 4-year period, there is an increasing trend in program-specific impact scores across all programs except one, Healthy Kids Express Asthma, which had a slight decrease in year 4 only. Current work in measuring and assessing the population health impact of community benefit programs is mostly focused on quantifying dollars invested into community benefit work rather than measuring the quality and impact of services. This article provides a methodology for measuring population health impact of community benefit programs that can be used to evaluate the effort of hospitals in providing community benefit. This is particularly relevant in our changing health care climate, as hospitals are being asked to justify community benefit and make meaningful contributions to population health. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act includes a change to the IRS 990 Schedule H, requiring nonprofit hospitals to submit a community health needs assessment every 3 years, and requires evaluation of program effectiveness; yet, it does not require any quantification of the impact of community benefit programs. The IRS Schedule H 990 policies could be strengthened by requiring an impact evaluation such as outlined in this article. As hospitals are being asked to justify community benefit and make meaningful contributions to population health, impact evaluations can be utilized to demonstrate the cumulative community benefit of programs and assess population health impact of community benefit programs.
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Risks of Sea Level Rise to Disadvantaged Communities in the United States
In this paper, we apply a new analytic tool to identify geographic areas in the contiguous United States that may be more likely to experience disproportionate impacts of sea level rise (SLR), and to determine if and where socially vulnerable populations would bear disproportiona...
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Störmer, Charlotte; Lummaa, Virpi
2014-01-01
Life History Theory predicts that extrinsic mortality risk is one of the most important factors shaping (human) life histories. Evidence from contemporary populations suggests that individuals confronted with high mortality environments show characteristic traits of fast life-history strategies: they marry and reproduce earlier, have shorter birth intervals and invest less in their offspring. However, little is known of the impact of mortality experiences on the speed of life histories in historical human populations with generally higher mortality risk, and on male life histories in particular. Furthermore, it remains unknown whether individual-level mortality experiences within the family have a greater effect on life-history decisions or family membership explains life-history variation. In a comparative approach using event history analyses, we study the impact of family versus individual-level effects of mortality exposure on two central life-history parameters, ages at first marriage and first birth, in three historical human populations (Germany, Finland, Canada). Mortality experience is measured as the confrontation with sibling deaths within the natal family up to an individual's age of 15. Results show that the speed of life histories is not adjusted according to individual-level mortality experiences but is due to family-level effects. The general finding of lower ages at marriage/reproduction after exposure to higher mortality in the family holds for both females and males. This study provides evidence for the importance of the family environment for reproductive timing while individual-level mortality experiences seem to play only a minor role in reproductive life history decisions in humans. PMID:24421897
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Störmer, Charlotte; Lummaa, Virpi
2014-01-01
Life History Theory predicts that extrinsic mortality risk is one of the most important factors shaping (human) life histories. Evidence from contemporary populations suggests that individuals confronted with high mortality environments show characteristic traits of fast life-history strategies: they marry and reproduce earlier, have shorter birth intervals and invest less in their offspring. However, little is known of the impact of mortality experiences on the speed of life histories in historical human populations with generally higher mortality risk, and on male life histories in particular. Furthermore, it remains unknown whether individual-level mortality experiences within the family have a greater effect on life-history decisions or family membership explains life-history variation. In a comparative approach using event history analyses, we study the impact of family versus individual-level effects of mortality exposure on two central life-history parameters, ages at first marriage and first birth, in three historical human populations (Germany, Finland, Canada). Mortality experience is measured as the confrontation with sibling deaths within the natal family up to an individual's age of 15. Results show that the speed of life histories is not adjusted according to individual-level mortality experiences but is due to family-level effects. The general finding of lower ages at marriage/reproduction after exposure to higher mortality in the family holds for both females and males. This study provides evidence for the importance of the family environment for reproductive timing while individual-level mortality experiences seem to play only a minor role in reproductive life history decisions in humans.
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Chuenniyom, Wansiri; Meksumpun, Charumas; Meksumpun, Shettapong
2012-01-01
This study aimed to analyze the impacts of nutrients and related aquatic factors on changes in the Noctiluca population of the Tha Chin estuary, a nutrient-rich estuary located in the inner Gulf of Thailand. Field surveys were carried out at 30 stations during November 2009 to August 2010. The results indicated high levels of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; 13.89-46.99 μmol/L) and PO(4)(3-)-P (0.20-3.05 μmol/L) where the Noctiluca red tide occurred, particularly during the high-loading period. Dense populations were usually found in the outer part of the estuary with comparatively high salinity (25-29 psu). The highest Noctiluca density was 72,333 cells L(-1) and the cell diameters ranged between 360 and 460 μm. Proportions of small-sized cells (P(s); less than 300 μm) varied over time. In this study, P(s) showed a positive correlation with levels of PO(4)(3-)-P, while the total population density was significantly affected by levels of NH(4)(+)-N and DIN (p < 0.05). Overall, PO(4)(3-)-P influenced the development of the Noctiluca red tide, with the limitation of PO(4)(3-)-P levels to below 1 μmol/L suggested for controlling Noctiluca red tide outbreaks at their origin. To support environmental conservation and maintain sustainable production in the estuary, the levels of PO(4)(3-)-P should be considered for the further effective development of water quality standards in estuarine zones.
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Premature mortality due to social and material deprivation in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Saint-Jacques, Nathalie; Dewar, Ron; Cui, Yunsong; Parker, Louise; Dummer, Trevor Jb
2014-10-25
Inequalities in health attributable to inequalities in society have long been recognized. Typically, those most privileged experience better health, regardless of universal access to health care. Associations between social and material deprivation and mortality from all causes of death--a measure of population health, have been described for some regions of Canada. This study further examines the link between deprivation and health, focusing on major causes of mortality for both rural and urban populations. In addition, it quantifies the burden of premature mortality attributable to social and material deprivation in a Canadian setting where health care is accessible to all. The study included 35,266 premature deaths (1995-2005), grouped into five causes and aggregated over census dissemination areas. Two indices of deprivation (social and material) were derived from six socioeconomic census variables. Premature mortality was modeled as a function of these deprivation indices using Poisson regression. Premature mortality increased significantly with increasing levels of social and material deprivation. The impact of material deprivation on premature mortality was similar in urban and rural populations, whereas the impact of social deprivation was generally greater in rural populations. There were a doubling in premature mortality for those experiencing a combination of the most extreme levels of material and social deprivation. Socioeconomic deprivation is an important determinant of health equity and affects every segment of the population. Deprivation accounted for 40% of premature deaths. The 4.3% of the study population living in extreme levels of socioeconomic deprivation experienced a twofold increased risk of dying prematurely. Nationally, this inequitable risk could translate into a significant public health burden.
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Applying operations research to optimize a novel population management system for cancer screening
Zai, Adrian H; Kim, Seokjin; Kamis, Arnold; Hung, Ken; Ronquillo, Jeremiah G; Chueh, Henry C; Atlas, Steven J
2014-01-01
Objective To optimize a new visit-independent, population-based cancer screening system (TopCare) by using operations research techniques to simulate changes in patient outreach staffing levels (delegates, navigators), modifications to user workflow within the information technology (IT) system, and changes in cancer screening recommendations. Materials and methods TopCare was modeled as a multiserver, multiphase queueing system. Simulation experiments implemented the queueing network model following a next-event time-advance mechanism, in which systematic adjustments were made to staffing levels, IT workflow settings, and cancer screening frequency in order to assess their impact on overdue screenings per patient. Results TopCare reduced the average number of overdue screenings per patient from 1.17 at inception to 0.86 during simulation to 0.23 at steady state. Increases in the workforce improved the effectiveness of TopCare. In particular, increasing the delegate or navigator staff level by one person improved screening completion rates by 1.3% or 12.2%, respectively. In contrast, changes in the amount of time a patient entry stays on delegate and navigator lists had little impact on overdue screenings. Finally, lengthening the screening interval increased efficiency within TopCare by decreasing overdue screenings at the patient level, resulting in a smaller number of overdue patients needing delegates for screening and a higher fraction of screenings completed by delegates. Conclusions Simulating the impact of changes in staffing, system parameters, and clinical inputs on the effectiveness and efficiency of care can inform the allocation of limited resources in population management. PMID:24043318
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DNA methylation-based variation between human populations.
Kader, Farzeen; Ghai, Meenu
2017-02-01
Several studies have proved that DNA methylation affects regulation of gene expression and development. Epigenome-wide studies have reported variation in methylation patterns between populations, including Caucasians, non-Caucasians (Blacks), Hispanics, Arabs, and numerous populations of the African continent. Not only has DNA methylation differences shown to impact externally visible characteristics, but is also a potential biomarker for underlying racial health disparities between human populations. Ethnicity-related methylation differences set their mark during early embryonic development. Genetic variations, such as single-nucleotide polymorphisms and environmental factors, such as age, dietary folate, socioeconomic status, and smoking, impacts DNA methylation levels, which reciprocally impacts expression of phenotypes. Studies show that it is necessary to address these external influences when attempting to differentiate between populations since the relative impacts of these factors on the human methylome remain uncertain. The present review summarises several reported attempts to establish the contribution of differential DNA methylation to natural human variation, and shows that DNA methylation could represent new opportunities for risk stratification and prevention of several diseases amongst populations world-wide. Variation of methylation patterns between human populations is an exciting prospect which inspires further valuable research to apply the concept in routine medical and forensic casework. However, trans-generational inheritance needs to be quantified to decipher the proportion of variation contributed by DNA methylation. The future holds thorough evaluation of the epigenome to understand quantification, heritability, and the effect of DNA methylation on phenotypes. In addition, methylation profiling of the same ethnic groups across geographical locations will shed light on conserved methylation differences in populations.
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Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; McKinlay, John; Newbery, Kym; Takahashi, Akinori; Kato, Akiko; Barbraud, Christophe; DeLord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri
2015-01-01
Seabirds are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because they integrate across changes in the lower trophic levels and the physical environment. Signals from this key group of species can indicate broad scale impacts or response to environmental change. Recent studies of penguin populations, the most commonly abundant Antarctic seabirds in the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea, have demonstrated that physical changes in Antarctic marine environments have profound effects on biota at high trophic levels. Large populations of the circumpolar-breeding Adélie penguin occur in East Antarctica, but direct, standardized population data across much of this vast coastline have been more limited than in other Antarctic regions. We combine extensive new population survey data, new population estimation methods, and re-interpreted historical survey data to assess decadal-scale change in East Antarctic Adélie penguin breeding populations. We show that, in contrast to the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea where breeding populations have decreased or shown variable trends over the last 30 years, East Antarctic regional populations have almost doubled in abundance since the 1980's and have been increasing since the earliest counts in the 1960's. The population changes are associated with five-year lagged changes in the physical environment, suggesting that the changing environment impacts primarily on the pre-breeding age classes. East Antarctic marine ecosystems have been subject to a number of changes over the last 50 years which may have influenced Adélie penguin population growth, including decadal-scale climate variation, an inferred mid-20th century sea-ice contraction, and early-to-mid 20th century exploitation of fish and whale populations.
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Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; McKinlay, John; Newbery, Kym; Takahashi, Akinori; Kato, Akiko; Barbraud, Christophe; DeLord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri
2015-01-01
Seabirds are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because they integrate across changes in the lower trophic levels and the physical environment. Signals from this key group of species can indicate broad scale impacts or response to environmental change. Recent studies of penguin populations, the most commonly abundant Antarctic seabirds in the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea, have demonstrated that physical changes in Antarctic marine environments have profound effects on biota at high trophic levels. Large populations of the circumpolar-breeding Adélie penguin occur in East Antarctica, but direct, standardized population data across much of this vast coastline have been more limited than in other Antarctic regions. We combine extensive new population survey data, new population estimation methods, and re-interpreted historical survey data to assess decadal-scale change in East Antarctic Adélie penguin breeding populations. We show that, in contrast to the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea where breeding populations have decreased or shown variable trends over the last 30 years, East Antarctic regional populations have almost doubled in abundance since the 1980’s and have been increasing since the earliest counts in the 1960’s. The population changes are associated with five-year lagged changes in the physical environment, suggesting that the changing environment impacts primarily on the pre-breeding age classes. East Antarctic marine ecosystems have been subject to a number of changes over the last 50 years which may have influenced Adélie penguin population growth, including decadal-scale climate variation, an inferred mid-20th century sea-ice contraction, and early-to-mid 20th century exploitation of fish and whale populations. PMID:26488299
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The impact of new transportation modes on population distribution in Jing-Jin-Ji region of China
Wang, Lizhe; Chen, Lajiao
2018-01-01
This paper conducts a novel study in China’s Jing-Jin-Ji region to investigate the determinants of population distribution and short-term migration based on a comprehensive dataset including traditional census data, earth observation data, and emerging Internet data. Our results show that due to the high level of urbanization in this region, natural conditions are no longer the strongest determinants of population distribution. New transportation modes, such as high-speed rail, have arisen as a significant determinant of population distribution and short-term migration, particularly in large cities. Socio-economic factors such as GDP, investment, urbanization level, and technology, which are traditionally assumed to govern population distribution and short-term migration, have less influence although education still remains an important factor affecting population distribution. These findings will contribute valuable information to regional planning decision-making in the Jing-Jin-Ji region. PMID:29360105
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Richard C. Cobb; Maggie N. Chan; Ross K. Meentemeyer; David M. Rizzo
2011-01-01
Disease ecology has made important steps in describing how epidemiological processes control the impact of pathogens on populations and communities but fewer field or theoretical studies address disease effects at the ecosystem level. We demonstrate that the same epidemiological mechanisms drive disease intensity and coarse woody debris (CWD) dynamics...
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The Impact of Online Graduate Students' Motivation and Self-Regulation on Academic Procrastination
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Rakes, Glenda C.; Dunn, Karee E.
2010-01-01
With the rapid growth in online programs come concerns about how best to support student learning in this segment of the university population. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of effort regulation, a self-regulatory skill, and intrinsic motivation on online graduate students' levels of academic procrastination, behavior…
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The contribution of sea-level rise to flooding in large river catchments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T. M.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.; Hu, A.; Simmer, C.
2012-12-01
Climate change is expected to both impact sea level rise as well as flooding. Our study focuses on the combined effect of climate change on upper catchment precipitation as well as on sea-level rise at the river mouths and the impact this will have on river flooding both at the coast and further upstream. We concentrate on the eight catchments of the Amazonas, Congo, Orinoco, Ganges/Brahmaputra/Meghna, Mississippi, St. Lawrence, Danube and Niger rivers. To assess the impact of climate change, upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow are taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. Continuous daily time series for average catchment precipitation and discharge are available for each of the catchments. To arrive at a future discharge time series, we used these observations to develop a simple statistical hydrological model which can be applied to the modelled future upper catchment precipitation values. The analysis of this surrogate discharge time series alone already yields significant changes in flood return levels as well as flood duration. Using the geometry of the river channel, the backwater effect of sea-level rise is incorporated in our analysis of both flood frequencies and magnitudes by calculating the effective additional discharge due to the increase in water level at the river mouth outflow, as well as its tapering impact upstream. By combining these effects, our results focus on the merged impact of changes in extreme precipitation with increases in river height due to sea-level rise at the river mouths. Judging from our preliminary results, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing late 21st century flooding in the respective river basins. In particular, we find that especially in countries with low elevation gradient, flood characteristics are impacted by changes in sea-level rise as far inland as 150 kilometers. Therefore, a larger population than the coastal inhabitants alone are exposed to risks of further projected increases of sea-level rise. A prime example for a megacity greatly put at risk by this is Dhaka City in Bangladesh, with a population of roughly 14 million people.
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Mitchell, Kate M; Prudden, Holly J; Washington, Reynold; Isac, Shajy; Rajaram, Subramanian P; Foss, Anna M; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Boily, Marie-Claude; Vickerman, Peter
2016-01-01
In Bangalore, new HIV infections of female sex workers and men who have sex with men continue to occur, despite high condom use. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has high anti-HIV efficacy for men who have sex with men. PrEP demonstration projects are underway amongst Indian female sex workers. We estimated the impact and efficiency of prioritizing PrEP to female sex workers and/or men who have sex with men in Bangalore. A mathematical model of HIV transmission and treatment for female sex workers, clients, men who have sex with men and low-risk groups was parameterized and fitted to Bangalore data. The proportion of transmission attributable (population attributable fraction) to commercial sex and sex between men was calculated. PrEP impact (infections averted, life-years gained) and efficiency (life-years gained/infections averted per 100 person-years on PrEP) were estimated for different levels of PrEP adherence, coverage and prioritization strategies (female sex workers, high-risk men who have sex with men, both female sex workers and high-risk men who have sex with men, or female sex workers with lower condom use), under current conditions and in a scenario with lower baseline condom use amongst key populations. Population attributable fractions for commercial sex and sex between men have declined over time, and they are predicted to account for 19% of all new infections between 2016 and 2025. PrEP could prevent a substantial proportion of infections amongst female sex workers and men who have sex with men in this setting (23%/27% over 5/10 years, with 60% coverage and 50% adherence), which could avert 2.9%/4.3% of infections over 5/10 years in the whole Bangalore population. Impact and efficiency in the whole population was greater if female sex workers were prioritized. Efficiency increased, but impact decreased, if only female sex workers with lower condom use were given PrEP. Greater impact and efficiency was predicted for the scenario with lower condom use. PrEP could be beneficial for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, and give some benefits in the general population, especially in similar settings with lower condom use levels.
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Kanneppady, Sham Kishor; Balamanikandasrinivasan; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Sakri, Santosh B.
2013-01-01
Background: The patterns of facial growth, jaw and tooth size are inherited and are likely to differ among population and races. Aim of this study is to evaluate and compare the pattern of third molar (3M) impaction among three different ethnic groups (Chinese, Indian, Malay) of patients attending AIMST Dental Institute, Malaysia. Materials and Methods: Dental records and orthopantomographs of 2200 patients aged between 20 and 40 years were retrieved and examined retrospectively. Wherever impacted 3Ms were present, the status of 3Ms, their location, the level of impaction and angulations were recorded and analyzed using STATDISK (version 10.4) and the values obtained were compared with least square distance of 0.05 level. Results: About 667 radiographs met with the inclusion criteria and showed the presence of 1008 impacted 3Ms. On overall comparison the incidence of level B impactions were found to be higher in our study. Level A impactions were frequently seen in Chinese (41.9%), level B in Indian (36.4%) and level C impactions had an equal distribution among Chinese and Malays (34.1%). The difference was highly significant (P ≥ 0.05). Mesioangular impaction (49.8%) followed by distoangular (22.9%) were the most common impactions among all the three races. Conclusion: On comparison, mesioangular impaction was found to be the most frequent among all the three races whereas differences were seen in levels of impaction to some extent among the ethnic groups. But as a limitation, our findings and results reflected the status of 3Ms of patients attending AIMST Dental Institute, not entire Malaysia. Therefore more similar studies have to be carried out in other parts of Malaysia to substantiate our present findings. PMID:24019804
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Prevalence and Impact of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) Among an Ethnic Minority Population.
Hellemans, Sabine; Loeys, Tom; Buysse, Ann; De Smet, Olivia
2015-11-01
The present study examined the prevalence of lifetime experiences of physical and psychological intimate partner violence (IPV) among members of the Turkish ethnic minority population in Flanders. In addition, this study explored how lifetime IPV victimization affects ethnic minority victims' current mental, relational, and sexual well-being. Using a population-based representative sample, data from 392 adult Turkish women and men were investigated. Lifetime experiences of physical violence were reported by 14.3% of the Turkish respondents, while 66.0% reported at least one incidence of psychological abuse. Women were much more likely than men to report physical IPV victimization, but no gender differences were found for psychological IPV. With regard to the impact of IPV, it was found that lifetime IPV experiences do not appear to affect victims' current mental health. However, higher levels of physical and/or psychological IPV victimization were related to increased levels of relationship dissatisfaction, anxious and avoidant attachment orientations, sexual dissatisfaction, sexual dysfunction (with distress), and to decreased levels of sexual communication. These adverse relational and sexual outcomes of IPV victimization were mainly present among women but were also, to a lesser degree, relevant for men. © The Author(s) 2014.
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Go big or go home: impact of screening coverage on syphilis infection dynamics.
Tuite, Ashleigh; Fisman, David
2016-02-01
Syphilis outbreaks in urban men who have sex with men (MSM) are an ongoing public health challenge in many high-income countries, despite intensification of efforts to screen and treat at-risk individuals. We sought to understand how population-level coverage of asymptomatic screening impacts the ability to control syphilis transmission. We developed a risk-structured deterministic compartmental mathematical model of syphilis transmission in a population of sexually active MSM. We assumed a baseline level of treatment of syphilis cases due to seeking medical care in all scenarios. We evaluated the impact of sustained annual population-wide screening coverage ranging from 0% to 90% on syphilis incidence over the short term (20 years) and at endemic equilibrium. The relationship between screening coverage and equilibrium syphilis incidence displayed an inverted U-shape relationship, with peak equilibrium incidence occurring with 20-30% annual screening coverage. Annual screening of 62% of the population was required for local elimination (incidence <1 case per 100 000 population). Results were qualitatively similar in the face of differing programmatic, behavioural and natural history assumptions, although the screening thresholds for local elimination differed. With 6-monthly or 3-monthly screening, the population coverage required to achieve local elimination was reduced to 39% or 23%, respectively. Although screening has the potential to control syphilis outbreaks, suboptimal coverage may paradoxically lead to a higher equilibrium infection incidence than that observed in the absence of intervention. Suboptimal screening programme design should be considered as a possible contributor to unsuccessful syphilis control programmes in the context of the current epidemic. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
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Koblmüller, Stephan; Salzburger, Walter; Obermüller, Beate; Eigner, Eva; Sturmbauer, Christian; Sefc, Kristina M
2011-06-01
The conditions of phenotypic and genetic population differentiation allow inferences about the evolution, preservation and loss of biological diversity. In Lake Tanganyika, water level fluctuations are assumed to have had a major impact on the evolution of stenotopic littoral species, though this hypothesis has not been specifically examined so far. The present study investigates whether subtly differentiated colour patterns of adjacent Tropheus moorii populations are maintained in isolation or in the face of continuous gene flow, and whether the presumed influence of water level fluctuations on lacustrine cichlids can be demonstrated in the small-scale population structure of the strictly stenotopic, littoral Tropheus. Distinct population differentiation was found even across short geographic distances and minor habitat barriers. Population splitting chronology and demographic histories comply with our expectation of old and rather stable populations on steeper sloping shore, and more recently established populations in a shallower region. Moreover, population expansions seem to coincide with lake level rises in the wake of Late Pleistocene megadroughts ~100 KYA. The imprint of hydrologic events on current population structure in the absence of ongoing gene flow suggests that phenotypic differentiation among proximate Tropheus populations evolves and persists in genetic isolation. Sporadic gene flow is effected by lake level fluctuations following climate changes and controlled by the persistence of habitat barriers during lake level changes. Since similar demographic patterns were previously reported for Lake Malawi cichlids, our data furthermore strengthen the hypothesis that major climatic events synchronized facets of cichlid evolution across the East African Great Lakes. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Schmolke, Amelie; Brain, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille; Perkins, Daniel; Forbes, Valery
2017-02-01
Although population models are recognized as necessary tools in the ecological risk assessment of pesticides, particularly for species listed under the Endangered Species Act, their application in this context is currently limited to very few cases. The authors developed a detailed, individual-based population model for a threatened plant species, the decurrent false aster (Boltonia decurrens), for application in pesticide risk assessment. Floods and competition with other plant species are known factors that drive the species' population dynamics and were included in the model approach. The authors use the model to compare the population-level effects of 5 toxicity surrogates applied to B. decurrens under varying environmental conditions. The model results suggest that the environmental conditions under which herbicide applications occur may have a higher impact on populations than organism-level sensitivities to an herbicide within a realistic range. Indirect effects may be as important as the direct effects of herbicide applications by shifting competition strength if competing species have different sensitivities to the herbicide. The model approach provides a case study for population-level risk assessments of listed species. Population-level effects of herbicides can be assessed in a realistic and species-specific context, and uncertainties can be addressed explicitly. The authors discuss how their approach can inform the future development and application of modeling for population-level risk assessments of listed species, and ecological risk assessment in general. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:480-491. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.
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50 CFR 648.21 - Procedures for determining initial annual amounts.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-10-01
...; virtual population analysis results; levels of noncompliance by harvesters or individual states; impact of...: (A) Total world export potential of mackerel producing countries. (B) Total world import demand of...
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Lamaze, Fabien C; Garant, Dany; Bernatchez, Louis
2013-01-01
Translocation of plants and animal populations between environments is one of the major forms of anthropogenic perturbation experienced by pristine populations, and consequently, human-mediated hybridization by stocking practices between wild and exogenous conspecifics is of increasing concern. In this study, we compared the expression of seven candidate genes involved in multifactorial traits and regulatory pathways for growth as a function of level of introgressive hybridization between wild and domestic brook charr to test the null hypothesis of no effect of introgression on wild fish. Our analyses revealed that the expression of two of the genes tested, cytochrome c oxidase VIIa and the growth hormone receptor isoform I, was positively correlated with the level of introgression. We also observed a positive relationship between the extent of introgression and physiological status quantified by the Fulton's condition index. The expression of other genes was influenced by other variables, including year of sampling (reflecting different thermal conditions), sampling method and lake of origin. This is the first demonstration in nature that introgression from stocked populations has an impact on the expression of genes playing a role in important biological functions that may be related with fitness in wild introgressed populations. PMID:23467764
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Human impacts and changes in the coastal waters of south China.
Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Bi, Hongsheng; Mao, Xian-Zhong
2016-08-15
Human impact on the environment remains at the center of the debate on global environmental change. Using the Hong Kong-Shenzhen corridor in south China as an example, we present evidence that rapid urbanization and economic development in coastal areas were the dominant factors causing rapid changes in coastal waters. From 1990 to 2012, coastal seawater temperature increased ~0.060°C per year, sea level rose 4.4mm per year and pH decreased from 8.2 to 7.7, much faster than global averages. In the same period, there were exponential increases in the local population, gross domestic product and land fill area. Empirical analyses suggest that the large increase in the population affected local temperature, and economic development had a major impact on local pH. Results also show that pH and temperature were significantly correlated with local sea level rise, but pH had more predictive power, suggesting it could be considered a predictor for changes in local sea level. We conclude that human activities could significantly exacerbate local environmental changes which should be considered in predictive models and future development plans in coastal areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Do hatchery-reared sea urchins pose a threat to genetic diversity in wild populations?
Segovia-Viadero, M; Serrão, E A; Canteras-Jordana, J C; Gonzalez-Wangüemert, M
2016-01-01
In salmonids, the release of hatchery-reared fish has been shown to cause irreversible genetic impacts on wild populations. However, although responsible practices for producing and releasing genetically diverse, hatchery-reared juveniles have been published widely, they are rarely implemented. Here, we investigated genetic differences between wild and early-generation hatchery-reared populations of the purple sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (a commercially important species in Europe) to assess whether hatcheries were able to maintain natural levels of genetic diversity. To test the hypothesis that hatchery rearing would cause bottleneck effects (that is, a substantial reduction in genetic diversity and differentiation from wild populations), we compared the levels and patterns of genetic variation between two hatcheries and four nearby wild populations, using samples from both Spain and Ireland. We found that hatchery-reared populations were less diverse and had diverged significantly from the wild populations, with a very small effective population size and a high degree of relatedness between individuals. These results raise a number of concerns about the genetic impacts of their release into wild populations, particularly when such a degree of differentiation can occur in a single generation of hatchery rearing. Consequently, we suggest that caution should be taken when using hatchery-reared individuals to augment fisheries, even for marine species with high dispersal capacity, and we provide some recommendations to improve hatchery rearing and release practices. Our results further highlight the need to consider the genetic risks of releasing hatchery-reared juveniles into the wild during the establishment of restocking, stock enhancement and sea ranching programs. PMID:26758187
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Population growth and sustainable development in China.
Gui, S
1998-12-01
This article identifies the adverse impacts of population growth in China and offers suggestions for attaining sustainable development. Although China has below replacement level fertility, population will continue to increase. Chinese demographers project that the total fertility rate will average 2.1 each year until 2010, 2.1 until 2050, or 1.88 until 2010 and 1.6 during 2010-2050 under high, medium, and low variants, respectively. Total population would number 1.69 billion, 1.50 billion, or 1.46 billion under various projections, respectively, by 2050. Continued growth is expected to seriously slow economic development, to hinder improvements in the quality of and full use of human resources, to depress increases in per-capita economic development levels, and to impact on reasonable use of resources and environmental protection. The averting of 5 million births would save 35.5 billion yuan. Population growth has reduced the per-capita share of cultivated land from 0.19 to 0.08 hectares during 1952-95. There are about 150-190 million surplus rural laborers. Registered unemployment in cities was 3.1% in 1997. 11.5 million were laid-off workers. The working-age population will exceed 900 million during 2007-26. China's gross national product (GNP) was the 8th highest in the world in 1990, but its per-capita GNP was in 100th place. China's abundant natural resources are seriously reduced when population is considered. Environmental damage is already evident. Population growth needs to be controlled through family planning, an old-age social security program, and long-term population policies. Society needs healthier births and childbearing and better educated children.
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Allowable levels of take for the trade in Nearctic songbirds.
Johnson, Fred A; Walters, Matthew A H; Boomer, G Scott
2012-06-01
The take of Nearctic songbirds for the caged-bird trade is an important cultural and economic activity in Mexico, but its sustainability has been questioned. We relied on the theta-logistic population model to explore options for setting allowable levels of take for 11 species of passerines that were subject to legal take in Mexico in 2010. Because estimates of population size necessary for making-periodic adjustments to levels of take are not routinely available, we examined the conditions under which a constant level of take might contribute to population depletion (i.e., a population below its level of maximum net productivity). The chance of depleting a population is highest when levels of take are based on population sizes that happen to be much lower or higher than the level of maximum net productivity, when environmental variation is relatively high and serially correlated, and when the interval between estimation of population size is relatively long (> or = 5 years). To estimate demographic rates of songbirds involved in the Mexican trade we relied on published information and allometric relationships to develop probability distributions for key rates, and then sampled from those distributions to characterize the uncertainty in potential levels of take. Estimates of the intrinsic rate of growth (r) were highly variable, but median estimates were consistent with those expected for relatively short-lived, highly fecund species. Allowing for the possibility of nonlinear density dependence generally resulted in allowable levels of take that were lower than would have been the case under an assumption of linearity. Levels of take authorized by the Mexican government in 2010 for the 11 species we examined were small in comparison to relatively conservative allowable levels of take (i.e., those intended to achieve 50% of maximum sustainable yield). However, the actual levels of take in Mexico are unknown and almost certainly exceed the authorized take. Also, the take of Nearctic songbirds in other Latin American and Caribbean countries ultimately must be considered in assessing population-level impacts.
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Allowable levels of take for the trade in Nearctic songbirds
Johnson, Fred A.; Walters, Matthew A.H.; Boomer, G. Scott
2012-01-01
The take of Nearctic songbirds for the caged-bird trade is an important cultural and economic activity in Mexico, but its sustainability has been questioned. We relied on the theta-logistic population model to explore options for setting allowable levels of take for 11 species of passerines that were subject to legal take in Mexico in 2010. Because estimates of population size necessary for making periodic adjustments to levels of take are not routinely available, we examined the conditions under which a constant level of take might contribute to population depletion (i.e., a population below its level of maximum net productivity). The chance of depleting a population is highest when levels of take are based on population sizes that happen to be much lower or higher than the level of maximum net productivity, when environmental variation is relatively high and serially correlated, and when the interval between estimation of population size is relatively long (≥5 years). To estimate demographic rates of songbirds involved in the Mexican trade we relied on published information and allometric relationships to develop probability distributions for key rates, and then sampled from those distributions to characterize the uncertainty in potential levels of take. Estimates of the intrinsic rate of growth (r) were highly variable, but median estimates were consistent with those expected for relatively short-lived, highly fecund species. Allowing for the possibility of nonlinear density dependence generally resulted in allowable levels of take that were lower than would have been the case under an assumption of linearity. Levels of take authorized by the Mexican government in 2010 for the 11 species we examined were small in comparison to relatively conservative allowable levels of take (i.e., those intended to achieve 50% of maximum sustainable yield). However, the actual levels of take in Mexico are unknown and almost certainly exceed the authorized take. Also, the take of Nearctic songbirds in other Latin American and Caribbean countries ultimately must be considered in assessing population-level impacts.
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Duarte, Luis Felipe de Almeida; Souza, Caroline Araújo de; Nobre, Caio Rodrigues; Pereira, Camilo Dias Seabra; Pinheiro, Marcelo Antonio Amaro
2016-11-01
There is a global lack of knowledge on tropical ecotoxicology, particularly in terms of mangrove areas. These areas often serve as nurseries or homes for several animal species, including Ucides cordatus (the uçá crab). This species is widely distributed, is part of the diet of human coastal communities, and is considered to be a sentinel species due to its sensitivity to toxic xenobiotics in natural environments. Sublethal damages to benthic populations reveal pre-pathological conditions, but discussions of the implications are scarce in the literature. In Brazil, the state of São Paulo offers an interesting scenario for ecotoxicology and population studies: it is easy to distinguish between mangroves that are well preserved and those which are significantly impacted by human activity. The objectives of this study were to provide the normal baseline values for the frequency of Micronucleated cells (MN‰) and for neutral red retention time (NRRT) in U. cordatus at pristine locations, as well to indicate the conservation status of different mangrove areas using a multi-level biological response approach in which these biomarkers and population indicators (condition factor and crab density) are applied in relation to environmental quality indicators (determined via information in the literature and solid waste volume). A mangrove area with no effects of impact (areas of reference or pristine areas) presented a mean value of MN‰<3 and NRRT>120min, values which were assumed as baseline values representing genetic and physiological normality. A significant correlation was found between NRRT and MN, with both showing similar and effective results for distinguishing between different mangrove areas according to conservation status. Furthermore, crab density was lower in more impacted mangrove areas, a finding which also reflects the effects of sublethal damage; this finding was not determined by condition factor measurements. Multi-level biological responses were able to reflect the conservation status of the mangrove areas studied using information on guideline values of MN‰, NRRT, and density of the uçá crab in order to categorize three levels of human impacts in mangrove areas: PNI (probable null impact); PLI (probable low impact); and PHI (probable high impact). Results confirm the success of U. cordatus species' multi-level biological responses in diagnosing threats to mangrove areas. Therefore, this species represents an effective tool in studies on mangrove conservation statuses in the Western Atlantic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Photoexcitation of atoms by Laguerre-Gaussian beams
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peshkov, A. A.; Seipt, D.; Surzhykov, A.; Fritzsche, S.
2017-08-01
In a recent experiment, Schmiegelow et al. [Nat. Commun. 7, 12998 (2016), 10.1038/ncomms12998] investigated the magnetic sublevel population of Ca+ ions in a Laguerre-Gaussian light beam if the target atoms were just centered along the beam axis. They demonstrated in this experiment that the sublevel population of the excited atoms is uniquely defined by the projection of the orbital angular momentum of the incident light. However, little attention has been paid so far to the question of how the magnetic sublevels are populated when atoms are displaced from the beam axis by some impact parameter b . Here, we analyze this sublevel population for different atomic impact parameters in first-order perturbation theory and by making use of the density-matrix formalism. Detailed calculations are performed especially for the 4 s 1/2 2S →3 d 5/2 2 transition in Ca+ ions and for the vector potential of a Laguerre-Gaussian beam in Coulomb gauge. It is shown that the magnetic sublevel population of the excited 5/2 2D level varies significantly with the impact parameter and is sensitive to the polarization, the radial index, as well as the orbital angular momentum of the incident light beam.
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Potential future impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a southern African setting.
Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Nakagawa, Fumiyo; Ford, Deborah; Lundgren, Jens D; Roset-Bahmanyar, Edith; Roman, François; Van Effelterre, Thierry
2014-01-01
It is important for public health and within the HIV vaccine development field to understand the potential population level impact of an HIV vaccine of partial efficacy--both in preventing infection and in reducing viral load in vaccinated individuals who become infected--in the context of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings. An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various combinations of efficacy characteristics, in the context of continued ART roll-out in southern Africa. In the context of our base case epidemic (in 2015 HIV prevalence 28% and incidence 1.7 per 100 person years), a vaccine with only 30% preventative efficacy could make a substantial difference in the rate with which HIV incidence declines; the impact on incidence in relative terms is projected to increase over time, with a projected 67% lower HIV incidence in 2060 compared with no vaccine introduction. The projected mean decline in the general adult population death rate 2040-2060 is 11%. A vaccine with no prevention efficacy but which reduces viral load by 1 log is predicted to result in a modest (14%) reduction in HIV incidence and an 8% reduction in death rate in the general adult population (mean 2040-2060). These effects were broadly similar in multivariable uncertainty analysis. Introduction of a partially effective preventive HIV vaccine would make a substantial long-term impact on HIV epidemics in southern Africa, in addition to the effects of ART. Development of an HIV vaccine, even of relatively low apparent efficacy at the individual level, remains a critical global public health goal.
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Barberio, Amanda M; Sumar, Nureen; Trieu, Kathy; Lorenzetti, Diane L; Tarasuk, Valerie; Webster, Jacqui; Campbell, Norman R C; McLaren, Lindsay
2017-10-01
Worldwide, excessive salt consumption is common and is a leading cause of high blood pressure. Our objectives were to assess the overall and differential impact (by social and economic indicators) of population-level interventions for dietary sodium reduction in government jurisdictions worldwide. This is a Cochrane systematic review. We searched nine peer-reviewed databases, seven grey literature resources and contacted national programme leaders. We appraised studies using an adapted version of the Cochrane risk of bias tool. To assess impact, we computed the mean change in salt intake (g/day) from before to after intervention. Fifteen initiatives met the inclusion criteria and 10 provided sufficient data for quantitative analysis of impact. Of these, five showed a mean decrease in salt intake from before to after intervention including: China, Finland (Kuopio area), France, Ireland and the UK. When the sample was constrained to the seven initiatives that were multicomponent and incorporated activities of a structural nature (e.g. procurement policy), most (4/7) showed a mean decrease in salt intake. A reduction in salt intake was more apparent among men than women. There was insufficient information to assess differential impact by other social and economic axes. Although many initiatives had methodological strengths, all scored as having a high risk of bias reflecting the observational design. Study heterogeneity was high, reflecting different contexts and initiative characteristics. Population-level dietary sodium reduction initiatives have the potential to reduce dietary salt intake, especially if they are multicomponent and incorporate intervention activities of a structural nature. It is important to consider data infrastructure to permit monitoring of these initiatives. © The Author 2017; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association
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Preventable hospitalizations: does rurality or non-physician clinician supply matter?
Nayar, Preethy; Nguyen, Anh T; Apenteng, Bettye; Yu, Fang
2012-04-01
This study examines the relationship between rurality as well as the proportion of non-physician clinicians and county rates of ambulatory care sensitive hospitalizations (ACSHs) for pediatric, adult and elderly populations in Nebraska. The study design was a cross-sectional observational study of county level factors that affect the county level rates of ACSHs using Poisson regression models. Rural (non-metro) counties have significantly higher ACSHs for both pediatric and adult population, but not for the elderly. Frontier counties have significantly higher adult ACSHs. The proportion of primary care providers who are non-physician clinicians does not have a significant association with ACSHs for any of the age groups. The results indicate that rurality may have a greater impact on pediatric and adult ACSHs and the proportion of NPCs in the primary care provider workforce does not significantly impact ACSH rates.
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Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model.
Ainsworth, Cameron H; Paris, Claire B; Perlin, Natalie; Dornberger, Lindsey N; Patterson, William F; Chancellor, Emily; Murawski, Steve; Hollander, David; Daly, Kendra; Romero, Isabel C; Coleman, Felicia; Perryman, Holly
2018-01-01
We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover.
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Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model
Paris, Claire B.; Perlin, Natalie; Dornberger, Lindsey N.; Patterson, William F.; Chancellor, Emily; Murawski, Steve; Hollander, David; Daly, Kendra; Romero, Isabel C.; Coleman, Felicia; Perryman, Holly
2018-01-01
We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover. PMID:29370187
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Terrorism-related fear and avoidance behavior in a multiethnic urban population.
Eisenman, David P; Glik, Deborah; Ong, Michael; Zhou, Qiong; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Long, Anna; Fielding, Jonathan; Asch, Steven
2009-01-01
We sought to determine whether groups traditionally most vulnerable to disasters would be more likely than would be others to perceive population-level risk as high (as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level) would worry more about terrorism, and would avoid activities because of terrorism concerns. We conducted a random digit dial survey of the Los Angeles County population October 2004 through January 2005 in 6 languages. We asked respondents what color alert level the country was under, how often they worry about terrorist attacks, and how often they avoid activities because of terrorism. Multivariate regression modeled correlates of worry and avoidance, including mental illness, disability, demographic factors, and estimated color-coded alert level. Persons who are mentally ill, those who are disabled, African Americans, Latinos, Chinese Americans, Korean Americans, and non-US citizens were more likely to perceive population-level risk as high, as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level. These groups also reported more worry and avoidance behaviors because of concerns about terrorism. Vulnerable populations experience a disproportionate burden of the psychosocial impact of terrorism threats and our national response. Further studies should investigate the specific behaviors affected and further elucidate disparities in the disaster burden associated with terrorism and terrorism policies.
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Terrorism-Related Fear and Avoidance Behavior in a Multiethnic Urban Population
Glik, Deborah; Ong, Michael; Zhou, Qiong; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Long, Anna; Fielding, Jonathan; Asch, Steven
2009-01-01
Objectives. We sought to determine whether groups traditionally most vulnerable to disasters would be more likely than would be others to perceive population-level risk as high (as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level) would worry more about terrorism, and would avoid activities because of terrorism concerns. Methods. We conducted a random digit dial survey of the Los Angeles County population October 2004 through January 2005 in 6 languages. We asked respondents what color alert level the country was under, how often they worry about terrorist attacks, and how often they avoid activities because of terrorism. Multivariate regression modeled correlates of worry and avoidance, including mental illness, disability, demographic factors, and estimated color-coded alert level. Results. Persons who are mentally ill, those who are disabled, African Americans, Latinos, Chinese Americans, Korean Americans, and non-US citizens were more likely to perceive population-level risk as high, as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level. These groups also reported more worry and avoidance behaviors because of concerns about terrorism. Conclusions. Vulnerable populations experience a disproportionate burden of the psychosocial impact of terrorism threats and our national response. Further studies should investigate the specific behaviors affected and further elucidate disparities in the disaster burden associated with terrorism and terrorism policies. PMID:19008521
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Willard, Debra A.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Hupp, Cliff R.; Newell, Wayne L.
2015-01-01
The mid-Atlantic region and Chesapeake Bay watershed have been influenced by fluctuations in climate and sea level since the Cretaceous, and human alteration of the landscape began ~12,000 years ago, with greatest impacts since colonial times. Efforts to devise sustainable management strategies that maximize ecosystem services are integrating data from a range of scientific disciplines to understand how ecosystems and habitats respond to different climatic and environmental stressors. Palynology has played an important role in improving understanding of the impact of changing climate, sea level, and land use on local and regional vegetation. Additionally, palynological analyses have provided biostratigraphic control for surficial mapping efforts and documented agricultural activities of both Native American populations and European colonists. This field trip focuses on sites where palynological analyses have supported efforts to understand the impacts of changing climate and land use on the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frederick, L.; Grace, K.; Lloyd, B.
2014-12-01
As the global climate changes and the populations of many African countries grow, ensuring clean drinking water and food has become a pressing concern. Because of their vulnerability to malnutrition and food insecurity, children face the greatest risk for adverse health outcomes related to climate change. Vulnerability, however, is highly variable, with some children in food insecure communities showing healthy growth, while some children in food secure communities show signs of malnutrition. In West Africa, Burkina Faso faces high levels of child malnutrition, loses to farmland and a large share of the population have no access to clean water. Because the overwhelming majority of children rely on locally grown, rainfed agriculture and well/surface water, the combined impact of climate change and population growth decreases water availability and farmland per person. However, there is notable community and individual variation in malnutrition levels suggesting that there are important coping strategies that vulnerable families may use to secure their children's health. No spatially relevant analysis of water and food insecurity and children's health exists for Burkina Faso. The goal of this research is to identify and quantify the combined and inter-related impact of unsafe drinking water and community-level food availability on the physical health outcomes of Burkinabe children under five years of age. To accomplish this goal we rely on a publically available highly detailed, geo-referenced data set (Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)) to provide information on measures of childhood malnutrition and details on parental characteristics related to children's health. Information on water source (covered/uncovered well, piped water, etc.) and water quality (measures of arsenic and pollution) comes from DHS along with a recently collected geo-referenced US Agency for International Development (USAID) data set. Critical information on food production, environmental characteristics and population density come from high resolution remotely sensed data.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frederick, L.; Grace, K.; Lloyd, B.
2015-12-01
As the global climate changes and the populations of many African countries grow, ensuring clean drinking water and food has become a pressing concern. Because of their vulnerability to malnutrition and food insecurity, children face the greatest risk for adverse health outcomes related to climate change. Vulnerability, however, is highly variable, with some children in food insecure communities showing healthy growth, while some children in food secure communities show signs of malnutrition. In West Africa, Burkina Faso faces high levels of child malnutrition, loses to farmland and a large share of the population have no access to clean water. Because the overwhelming majority of children rely on locally grown, rainfed agriculture and well/surface water, the combined impact of climate change and population growth decreases water availability and farmland per person. However, there is notable community and individual variation in malnutrition levels suggesting that there are important coping strategies that vulnerable families may use to secure their children's health. No spatially relevant analysis of water and food insecurity and children's health exists for Burkina Faso. The goal of this research is to identify and quantify the combined and inter-related impact of unsafe drinking water and community-level food availability on the physical health outcomes of Burkinabe children under five years of age. To accomplish this goal we rely on a publically available highly detailed, geo-referenced data set (Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)) to provide information on measures of childhood malnutrition and details on parental characteristics related to children's health. Information on water source (covered/uncovered well, piped water, etc.) and water quality (measures of arsenic and pollution) comes from DHS along with a recently collected geo-referenced US Agency for International Development (USAID) data set. Critical information on food production, environmental characteristics and population density come from high resolution remotely sensed data.
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Tomasini, Nicolás; Lauthier, Juan José; Ayala, Francisco José; Tibayrenc, Michel; Diosque, Patricio
2014-01-01
The model of predominant clonal evolution (PCE) proposed for micropathogens does not state that genetic exchange is totally absent, but rather, that it is too rare to break the prevalent PCE pattern. However, the actual impact of this “residual” genetic exchange should be evaluated. Multilocus Sequence Typing (MLST) is an excellent tool to explore the problem. Here, we compared online available MLST datasets for seven eukaryotic microbial pathogens: Trypanosoma cruzi, the Fusarium solani complex, Aspergillus fumigatus, Blastocystis subtype 3, the Leishmania donovani complex, Candida albicans and Candida glabrata. We first analyzed phylogenetic relationships among genotypes within each dataset. Then, we examined different measures of branch support and incongruence among loci as signs of genetic structure and levels of past recombination. The analyses allow us to identify three types of genetic structure. The first was characterized by trees with well-supported branches and low levels of incongruence suggesting well-structured populations and PCE. This was the case for the T. cruzi and F. solani datasets. The second genetic structure, represented by Blastocystis spp., A. fumigatus and the L. donovani complex datasets, showed trees with weakly-supported branches but low levels of incongruence among loci, whereby genetic structuration was not clearly defined by MLST. Finally, trees showing weakly-supported branches and high levels of incongruence among loci were observed for Candida species, suggesting that genetic exchange has a higher evolutionary impact in these mainly clonal yeast species. Furthermore, simulations showed that MLST may fail to show right clustering in population datasets even in the absence of genetic exchange. In conclusion, these results make it possible to infer variable impacts of genetic exchange in populations of predominantly clonal micro-pathogens. Moreover, our results reveal different problems of MLST to determine the genetic structure in these organisms that should be considered. PMID:25054834
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The impact of minimum wages on population health: evidence from 24 OECD countries.
Lenhart, Otto
2017-11-01
This study examines the relationship between minimum wages and several measures of population health by analyzing data from 24 OECD countries for a time period of 31 years. Specifically, I test for health effects as a result of within-country variations in the generosity of minimum wages, which are measured by the Kaitz index. The paper finds that higher levels of minimum wages are associated with significant reductions of overall mortality rates as well as in the number of deaths due to outcomes that have been shown to be more prevalent among individuals with low socioeconomic status (e.g., diabetes, disease of the circulatory system, stroke). A 10% point increase of the Kaitz index is associated with significant declines in death rates and an increase in life expectancy of 0.44 years. Furthermore, I provide evidence for potential channels through which minimum wages impact population health by showing that more generous minimum wages impact outcomes such as poverty, the share of the population with unmet medical needs, the number of doctor consultations, tobacco consumption, calorie intake, and the likelihood of people being overweight.
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Perinatal legislative policies and health outcomes.
Lorch, Scott A
2017-10-01
Perinatal epidemiology examines the variation and determinants of pregnancy outcomes from a maternal and neonatal perspective. However, improving public and population health also requires the translation of this evidence base into substantive public policies. Assessing the impact of such public policies requires sufficient data to include potential confounding factors in the analysis, such as coexisting medical conditions and socioeconomic status, and appropriate statistical and epidemiological techniques. This review will explore policies addressing three areas of perinatal medicine-elective deliveries prior to 39 weeks' gestation; perinatal regionalization; and mandatory paid maternity leave policies-to illustrate the challenges when assessing the impact of specific policies at the patient and population level. Data support the use of these policies to improve perinatal health, but with weaker and less certain effect sizes when compared to the initial patient-level studies. Improved data collection and epidemiological techniques will allow for improved assessment of these policies and the identification of potential areas of improvement when translating patient-level studies into public policies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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The impact of development and population policies on fertility in India.
Jain, A K
1985-01-01
This article examines the impact of development and population policies on fertility decline and regional variations in India during the 1970s. Indicators of development at the household level include female literacy and education, infant mortality, and poverty; at the village level they include availability of such social services as schools, medical facilities, and transportation and communication facilities. Multiple regression analysis of data aggregated at the state level demonstrates that conditions conducive to fertility decline include high adult female literacy and low infant mortality as indicators of social development, and high contraceptive use and, to a lesser extent, high female age at marriage as proximate determinants of fertility. There are reasons to believe that India's national family planning program contributed to the decline in fertility observed since the 1960s. The pace of fertility decline in the future will depend upon the pace of infant mortality decline, enhancement in female education, and improvements in family planning programs.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Prado, Guillermo; Lightfoot, Marguerita; Brown, C. Hendricks
2013-01-01
The HIV epidemic continues to disproportionately affect ethnic minority youth. These disconcerting health disparities indicate that although existing HIV preventive strategies for ethnic minority youth have been efficacious, they have not significantly reduced the impact of the epidemic in this population. Macro-level interventions, such as…
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China's Population Policy at the Crossroads: Social Impacts and Prospects
Jiang, Quanbao; Li, Shuzhuo; Feldman, Marcus W.
2015-01-01
China's total fertility rate fell below replacement level in the 1990s. From the 1970s the fertility rate declined dramatically, mainly as a consequence of the national population policy whose aim has been to limit birth numbers, control population growth and boost economic growth. Having achieved such a low fertility rate, how will China's population policy evolve in the future? This paper first reviews the history of China's population policy since 1970 in terms of three stages: 1970-1979; 1980-1999; and after 2000. We explore the impacts of China's population policy, including relief of pressure on China's environment and resources, fertility decline, the unexpectedly high male-biased sex ratio at birth (SRB), the coming shortage of labor force, and the rapid aging of the population. We also investigate ethical issues raised by the implementation of the policy and its results. Finally we introduce the controversy over potential adjustment of the policy, acknowledging the problems faced by western countries with low fertility and countermeasures they have taken. We offer some suggestions that might be appropriate in the Chinese context. PMID:26612983
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Water, climate change and society in Bangladesh
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thiele-Eich, Insa; Aßheuer, Tibor; Simmer, Clemens
2017-04-01
Due to its location in the extensive Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river delta, Bangladesh faces multiple natural hazards, in particular flooding, droughts and sea-level rise. In addition to climate change, transboundary water sharing issues resulting from dam structures such as Farakka Barrage complicate a prognosis on how the rapidly growing population will be affected in the 21st century. This is particularly important as our previous research suggests that the Greater Dhaka population already experiences a significant increase in mortality during droughts (Thiele-Eich et al., 2015). We attempt to explore the complex interactions between the hydrological system under climate change and anthropogenic impacts due to dams as well as a growing population. Our approach consists of a quantitative assessment of climate change using over fourty years of meteorological data (Bangladesh Meteorological Department) and hydrological data (Bangladesh Water Development Board), and CCSM4 climate model output (NCAR, 1950-2100). In addition to an extensive literature review, we also conducted qualitative interviews with slum dwellers in the megacity Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. Results show that significant changes in flood characteristics are expected for the later part of the 21st century, although they are difficult to quantify down to exact numbers due to large uncertainties. These changes take place over longer stretches of time and thus enable the population of Bangladesh to adapt slowly. Resources such as social capital, which is one of the main tools for slum dwellers to be able to cope with flooding can be altered over time, and as such the system can be considered overall stable and resilient. The presented results will also focus on how the riparian and coastal population is impacted by the interplay of natural changes such as sea-level rise and anthropogenic changes such as Farakka Barrage and the associated reduction in dry season flow. Thiele-Eich, I.; Burkart, K.; Simmer, C. Trends in Water Level and Flooding in Dhaka, Bangladesh and Their Impact on Mortality. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 1196-1215.
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The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.
Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L
2006-02-01
Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.
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Robinson, Mark; Thorpe, Rachel; Beeston, Clare; McCartney, Gerry
2013-01-01
To assess the validity and reliability of using alcohol retail sales data to measure and monitor population levels of alcohol consumption. Potential sources of bias that could lead to under- or overestimation of population alcohol consumption based on alcohol retail sales data were identified and, where possible, quantified. This enabled an assessment of the potential impact of each bias on alcohol consumption estimates in Scotland. Overall, considering all the possible sources of overestimation and underestimation, and taking into account the potential for sampling variability to impact on the results, the range of uncertainty of consumption during 2010 was from an overestimate of 0.3 l to an underestimate of 2.4 l of pure alcohol per adult. This excludes the impacts of alcohol stockpiling and alcohol sold through outlets not included in the sampling frame. On balance, there is therefore far greater scope for alcohol retail sales data to be underestimating per adult alcohol consumption in Scotland than there is for overestimation. Alcohol retail sales data offer a robust source of data for monitoring per adult alcohol consumption in Scotland. Consideration of the sources of bias and a comprehensive understanding of data collection methods are essential for using sales data to monitor trends in alcohol consumption.
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Åstrøm, Anne N; Lie, Stein A; Mbawalla, Hawa
2016-08-01
This study aimed to assess the longitudinal validity of the oral impacts on daily performance (OIDP) and to identify psychosocial determinants, in terms of self-efficacy and depressive symptoms, of the OIDP across time. Following conceptual frameworks of oral health, it was hypothesized that sociodemographic, clinical, and psychosocial factors predict oral impacts across time at both population- averaged and person-specific levels. Whether the effects of sociodemographic and clinical factors were accounted for, totally or in part, by psychosocial factors were also investigated. Self administered questionnaires and oral clinical examinations at baseline (2009) and follow-up (2011) were completed by 1,714 and 727 secondary school students, respectively. Generalized equalized equations and a random intercept model were used to account for the dependency in repeated observations. Mean OIDP change scores were negative (worsened) among those who reported worsened self-reported oral health. Psychosocial, clinical, and sociodemographic factors were independently associated with oral impacts at the population-averaged and person-specific levels. Mediation of sociodemographic and clinical variables according to psychosocial variables was not observed. Satisfactory longitudinal evaluative properties of the OIDP, and independent effects of psychosocial factors on oral impacts across time, were confirmed among secondary school students in Tanzania. © 2016 Eur J Oral Sci.
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Clinical chronic rhinosinusitis outcomes in pediatric patients with cystic fibrosis
2017-01-01
Objectives Chronic rhinosinusitis and nasal polyposis are common conditions in cystic fibrosis (CF). Approximately 2–3% of pediatric CF patients per year have sinus disease requiring surgery. It has been well established that there is a significant negative impact on quality of life associated with chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) in the non‐CF patient population. However, the impact of CRS on the pediatric CF population remains uncertain. The purpose of this article is to review the current state of outcome measures for CRS in pediatric CF patients. Data Sources PubMed and EMBASE literature review Methods PubMed and EMBASE electronic databases were searched using Boolean searches that incorporated mesh headings and plain language for quality of life, symptom evaluation, pediatric patients, and sinusitis/rhinosinusitis. Studies were included if the study primarily evaluated a pediatric Cystic Fibrosis‐Chronic Rhinosinusitis (CF‐CRS) population and the primary outcome measure was quality of life evaluation. Results The search yielded 34 unique articles. A total of 7 articles met inclusion criteria Conclusions Despite the high frequency of chronic rhinosinusitis in the pediatric CF patient population, its impact on quality of life is not well understood. Currently there is a lack of a validated disease specific quality of life instruments available to assess the impact of CRS on the pediatric CF patient population. Level of Evidence 5. PMID:29094071
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Rubio-Valera, M; Fernández, A; Evans-Lacko, S; Luciano, J V; Thornicroft, G; Aznar-Lou, I; Serrano-Blanco, A
2016-01-01
Reducing public stigma could improve patients' access to care, recovery and social integration. The aim of the study was to evaluate a mass media intervention, which aimed to reduce the mental health, related stigma among the general population in Catalonia (Spain). We conducted a cross-sectional population-based survey of a representative sample of the Catalan non-institutionalized adult population (n=1019). We assessed campaign awareness, attitudes to people with mental illness (CAMI) and intended behaviour (RIBS). To evaluate the association between campaign awareness and stigma, multivariable regression models were used. Over 20% of respondents recognized the campaign when prompted, and 11% when unprompted. Campaign aware individuals had better attitudes on the benevolence subscale of the CAMI than unaware individuals (P=0.009). No significant differences in authoritarianism and support for community mental health care attitudes subscales were observed. The campaign aware group had better intended behaviour than the unaware group (P<0.01). The OBERTAMENT anti-stigma campaign had a positive impact to improve the attitudes and intended behaviour towards people with mental illness of the Catalan population. The impact on stigma was limited to attitudes related to benevolence. A wider range of anti-stigma messages could produce a stronger impact on attitudes and intended behaviour. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
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A comparison of two global datasets of extreme sea levels and resulting flood exposure
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Ward, Philip J.
2017-04-01
Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6 m. With a mean bias of -0.2 m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea-level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure.
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Impacts of Human Recreation on Brown Bears (Ursus arctos): A Review and New Management Tool
Jennifer K. Fortin; Karyn D. Rode; Grant V. Hilderbrand; Jim Wilder; Sean Farley; Carole Jorgensen; Bruce G. Marcot
2016-01-01
Increased popularity of recreational activities in natural areas has led to the need to better understand their impacts on wildlife. The majority of research conducted to date has focused on behavioral effects from individual recreations, thus there is a limited understanding of the potential for population-level or cumulative effects. Brown bears (Ursus...
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Modelling the Health Impact of an English Sugary Drinks Duty at National and Local Levels.
Collins, Brendan; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin; Timpson, Hannah; Razzaq, Abdul; Cheater, Sylvia; Ireland, Robin; Bromley, Helen
2015-01-01
Increasing evidence associates excess refined sugar intakes with obesity, Type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Worryingly, the estimated volume of sugary drinks purchased in the UK has more than doubled between 1975 and 2007, from 510 ml to 1140 ml per person per week. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of a duty on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) at a local level in England, hypothesising that a duty could reduce obesity and related diseases. We modelled the potential impact of a 20% sugary drinks duty on local authorities in England between 2010 and 2030. We synthesised data obtained from the British National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS), drinks manufacturers, Office for National Statistics, and from previous studies. This produced a modelled population of 41 million adults in 326 lower tier local authorities in England. This analysis suggests that a 20% SSB duty could result in approximately 2,400 fewer diabetes cases, 1,700 fewer stroke and coronary heart disease cases, 400 fewer cancer cases, and gain some 41,000 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) per year across England. The duty might have the biggest impact in urban areas with young populations. This study adds to the growing body of evidence suggesting health benefits for a duty on sugary drinks. It might also usefully provide results at an area level to inform local price interventions in England.
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Johnson, Sandy A
2017-01-01
The direct impact of protracted conflict on population health and development is well understood. However, the extent of a war's impact on long-term health, and the opportunity costs, are less well understood. This research sought to overcome this gap by asking whether or not health outcomes in Sri Lanka would have been better in the absence of a 26-year war than they were in the presence of war. A counterfactual model of national and district-level health outcomes was created for Sri Lanka for the period 1982 to 2002. At the national level, the model examined life expectancy, infant mortality rate (IMR), and maternal mortality ratios (MMR). At the district level, it looked at IMR and MMR. The model compared outcomes generated by the counterfactual model to actual obtained health outcomes. It looked at the rate of change and absolute values. The analysis demonstrated that war altered both rate of change and absolute health outcomes for the worse. The impact was most clearly evident at the district level. IMR was poorer than predicted in 10 districts; of these 8 were outside of the conflict zone. The MMR was worse than expected in 11 districts of which 9 were not in the conflict zone. Additionally, the rate of improvement in IMR slowed as a result of war in 16 districts whereas the rate of improvement in MMR slowed in 9. This project showed that protracted conflict degraded the trajectory of public health in Sri Lanka and hurt population health outside of the conflict zone. It further provided a novel methodology with which to better understand the indirect impact of conflict on population health by comparing what is to what could have been achieved in the absence of war. In so doing, this research responded to two public health challenges by providing a tool through which to better understand the human and opportunity costs of war and by answering a call for new methodologies.
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2017-01-01
Purpose The direct impact of protracted conflict on population health and development is well understood. However, the extent of a war's impact on long-term health, and the opportunity costs, are less well understood. This research sought to overcome this gap by asking whether or not health outcomes in Sri Lanka would have been better in the absence of a 26-year war than they were in the presence of war. Methods A counterfactual model of national and district-level health outcomes was created for Sri Lanka for the period 1982 to 2002. At the national level, the model examined life expectancy, infant mortality rate (IMR), and maternal mortality ratios (MMR). At the district level, it looked at IMR and MMR. The model compared outcomes generated by the counterfactual model to actual obtained health outcomes. It looked at the rate of change and absolute values. Results The analysis demonstrated that war altered both rate of change and absolute health outcomes for the worse. The impact was most clearly evident at the district level. IMR was poorer than predicted in 10 districts; of these 8 were outside of the conflict zone. The MMR was worse than expected in 11 districts of which 9 were not in the conflict zone. Additionally, the rate of improvement in IMR slowed as a result of war in 16 districts whereas the rate of improvement in MMR slowed in 9. Conclusion This project showed that protracted conflict degraded the trajectory of public health in Sri Lanka and hurt population health outside of the conflict zone. It further provided a novel methodology with which to better understand the indirect impact of conflict on population health by comparing what is to what could have been achieved in the absence of war. In so doing, this research responded to two public health challenges by providing a tool through which to better understand the human and opportunity costs of war and by answering a call for new methodologies. PMID:28081118
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Bailey, Helen; Brookes, Kate L; Thompson, Paul M
2014-01-01
Offshore wind power provides a valuable source of renewable energy that can help reduce carbon emissions. Technological advances are allowing higher capacity turbines to be installed and in deeper water, but there is still much that is unknown about the effects on the environment. Here we describe the lessons learned based on the recent literature and our experience with assessing impacts of offshore wind developments on marine mammals and seabirds, and make recommendations for future monitoring and assessment as interest in offshore wind energy grows around the world. The four key lessons learned that we discuss are: 1) Identifying the area over which biological effects may occur to inform baseline data collection and determining the connectivity between key populations and proposed wind energy sites, 2) The need to put impacts into a population level context to determine whether they are biologically significant, 3) Measuring responses to wind farm construction and operation to determine disturbance effects and avoidance responses, and 4) Learn from other industries to inform risk assessments and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. As the number and size of offshore wind developments increases, there will be a growing need to consider the population level consequences and cumulative impacts of these activities on marine species. Strategically targeted data collection and modeling aimed at answering questions for the consenting process will also allow regulators to make decisions based on the best available information, and achieve a balance between climate change targets and environmental legislation.
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2014-01-01
Offshore wind power provides a valuable source of renewable energy that can help reduce carbon emissions. Technological advances are allowing higher capacity turbines to be installed and in deeper water, but there is still much that is unknown about the effects on the environment. Here we describe the lessons learned based on the recent literature and our experience with assessing impacts of offshore wind developments on marine mammals and seabirds, and make recommendations for future monitoring and assessment as interest in offshore wind energy grows around the world. The four key lessons learned that we discuss are: 1) Identifying the area over which biological effects may occur to inform baseline data collection and determining the connectivity between key populations and proposed wind energy sites, 2) The need to put impacts into a population level context to determine whether they are biologically significant, 3) Measuring responses to wind farm construction and operation to determine disturbance effects and avoidance responses, and 4) Learn from other industries to inform risk assessments and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. As the number and size of offshore wind developments increases, there will be a growing need to consider the population level consequences and cumulative impacts of these activities on marine species. Strategically targeted data collection and modeling aimed at answering questions for the consenting process will also allow regulators to make decisions based on the best available information, and achieve a balance between climate change targets and environmental legislation. PMID:25250175
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Multilevel Spatial Structure Impacts on the Pollination Services of Comarum palustre (Rosaceae)
Somme, Laurent; Mayer, Carolin; Jacquemart, Anne-Laure
2014-01-01
Habitat destruction and fragmentation accelerate pollinator decline, consequently disrupting ecosystem processes such as pollination. To date, the impacts of multilevel spatial structure on pollination services have rarely been addressed. We focused on the effects of population spatial structure on the pollination services of Comarum palustre at three levels (i.e. within-population, between-populations and landscape). For three years, we investigated 14 Belgian populations, which differed in their within-population flower density, population surface, closure (i.e. proportion of the population edge that consisted of woody elements) and isolation (i.e. percentage of woody area cover within a 500 m radius from the population centre). We tested whether these spatial characteristics impact on pollinator abundance and visitation rate and thus, reproductive success of C. palustre. Insects were observed in 15 randomly-chosen plots in each population. We tested for pollen limitation with supplemental hand-cross pollination. Bumble bees and solitary bees were the major pollinators through all populations. Within populations, plots with high flower densities attracted high numbers of bumble bees and other insects. High bumble bee and solitary bee abundance was observed in populations presenting high proportions of woody edges and in populations within landscapes presenting high proportions of woody areas. Seed set resulting from open pollination varied with bumble bee and solitary bee visitation rate, leading to increased pollen limitation when pollinators were scarce. Since the reproductive success depended on the visitation rate of the main pollinators, which depended on multilevel spatial structure, wetland management plans should pay special attention to favour a mosaic of biotopes, including nesting sites and food resources for insects. This study particularly supports the relevance of a mix wetlands and woody habitats to bees. PMID:24915450
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Multilevel spatial structure impacts on the pollination services of Comarum palustre (Rosaceae).
Somme, Laurent; Mayer, Carolin; Jacquemart, Anne-Laure
2014-01-01
Habitat destruction and fragmentation accelerate pollinator decline, consequently disrupting ecosystem processes such as pollination. To date, the impacts of multilevel spatial structure on pollination services have rarely been addressed. We focused on the effects of population spatial structure on the pollination services of Comarum palustre at three levels (i.e. within-population, between-populations and landscape). For three years, we investigated 14 Belgian populations, which differed in their within-population flower density, population surface, closure (i.e. proportion of the population edge that consisted of woody elements) and isolation (i.e. percentage of woody area cover within a 500 m radius from the population centre). We tested whether these spatial characteristics impact on pollinator abundance and visitation rate and thus, reproductive success of C. palustre. Insects were observed in 15 randomly-chosen plots in each population. We tested for pollen limitation with supplemental hand-cross pollination. Bumble bees and solitary bees were the major pollinators through all populations. Within populations, plots with high flower densities attracted high numbers of bumble bees and other insects. High bumble bee and solitary bee abundance was observed in populations presenting high proportions of woody edges and in populations within landscapes presenting high proportions of woody areas. Seed set resulting from open pollination varied with bumble bee and solitary bee visitation rate, leading to increased pollen limitation when pollinators were scarce. Since the reproductive success depended on the visitation rate of the main pollinators, which depended on multilevel spatial structure, wetland management plans should pay special attention to favour a mosaic of biotopes, including nesting sites and food resources for insects. This study particularly supports the relevance of a mix wetlands and woody habitats to bees.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wald, D. J.; Jaiswal, K. S.; Marano, K.; Hearne, M.; Earle, P. S.; So, E.; Garcia, D.; Hayes, G. P.; Mathias, S.; Applegate, D.; Bausch, D.
2010-12-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has begun publicly releasing earthquake alerts for significant earthquakes around the globe based on estimates of potential casualties and economic losses. These estimates should significantly enhance the utility of the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system that has been providing estimated ShakeMaps and computing population exposures to specific shaking intensities since 2007. Quantifying earthquake impacts and communicating loss estimates (and their uncertainties) to the public has been the culmination of several important new and evolving components of the system. First, the operational PAGER system now relies on empirically-based loss models that account for estimated shaking hazard, population exposure, and employ country-specific fatality and economic loss functions derived using analyses of losses due to recent and past earthquakes. In some countries, our empirical loss models are informed in part by PAGER’s semi-empirical and analytical loss models, and building exposure and vulnerability data sets, all of which are being developed in parallel to the empirical approach. Second, human and economic loss information is now portrayed as a supplement to existing intensity/exposure content on both PAGER summary alert (available via cell phone/email) messages and web pages. Loss calculations also include estimates of the economic impact with respect to the country’s gross domestic product. Third, in order to facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake responses based on our probable loss estimates, in early 2010 we proposed a four-level Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS). Instead of simply issuing median estimates for losses—which can be easily misunderstood and misused—this scale provides ranges of losses from which potential responders can gauge expected overall impact from strong shaking. EIS is based on two complementary criteria: the estimated cost of damage, which is most suitable for U.S. domestic events; and estimated ranges of fatalities, which are generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in earthquake-vulnerable countries. Alert levels are characterized by alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered when estimated US dollar losses reach 1 million, 100 million, and 1 billion+ levels, respectively. Finally, alerting protocols now explicitly support EIS-based alerts. Critical users can receive PAGER alerts i) based on the EIS-based alert level, in addition to or as an alternative to magnitude and population/intensity exposure-based alerts, and ii) optionally, based on user-selected regions of the world. The essence of PAGER’s impact-based alerting is that actionable loss information is now available in the immediate aftermath of significant earthquakes worldwide based on quantifiable, albeit uncertain, loss estimates provided by the USGS.
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Ameca y Juárez, Eric I; Ellis, Edward A; Rodríguez-Luna, Ernesto
2015-07-01
Long-term studies quantifying impacts of hurricane activity on growth and trajectory of primate populations are rare. Using a 14-year monitored population of Alouatta palliata mexicana as a study system, we developed a modeling framework to assess the relative contribution of hurricane disturbance and two types of human impacts, habitat loss, and hunting, on quasi-extinction risk. We found that the scenario with the highest level of disturbance generated a 21% increase in quasi-extinction risk by 40 years compared to scenarios of intermediate disturbance, and around 67% increase relative to that found in low disturbance scenarios. We also found that the probability of reaching quasi-extinction due to human disturbance alone was below 1% by 40 years, although such scenarios reduced population size by 70%, whereas the risk of quasi-extinction ranged between 3% and 65% for different scenarios of hurricane severity alone, in absence of human impacts. Our analysis moreover found that the quasi-extinction risk driven by hunting and hurricane disturbance was significantly lower than the quasi-extinction risk posed by human-driven habitat loss and hurricane disturbance. These models suggest that hurricane disturbance has the potential to exceed the risk posed by human impacts, and, in particular, to substantially increase the speed of the extinction vortex driven by habitat loss relative to that driven by hunting. Early mitigation of habitat loss constituted the best method for reducing quasi-extinction risk: the earlier habitat loss is halted, the less vulnerable the population becomes to hurricane disturbance. By using a well-studied population of A. p. mexicana, we help understand the demographic impacts that extreme environmental disturbance can trigger on isolated populations of taxa already endangered in other systems where long-term demographic data are not available. For those experiencing heavy anthropogenic pressure and lacking sufficiently evolved coping strategies against unpredictable environmental disturbance, the risk of population extinction can be exacerbated. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Barata, C; Fabregat, M C; Cotín, J; Huertas, D; Solé, M; Quirós, L; Sanpera, C; Jover, L; Ruiz, X; Grimalt, J O; Piña, B
2010-03-01
Blood biomarkers and levels of major pollutants in eggs and feathers were used to determine pollution effects in nestlings of the Purple Heron Ardea purpurea and the Little Egret Egretta garzetta, sampled on three Ebro River (NE Spain) areas: a reference site, a site affected by the effluents of a chlor-alkali industry and the river Delta. The two impacted heron populations showed mutually different pollutant and response patterns, suggesting different sources of contamination. In the population nesting near the chlor-alkali plant, elevated levels of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) in eggs, and mercury in feathers in A. purpurea chicks were related with reduced blood antioxidant defenses and increased levels of micronuclei. In Ebro Delta, high levels of plasmatic lactate dehydrogenase in A. purpurea chicks and high frequency of micronuclei in blood of both species were tentatively associated with intensive agricultural activities taking place in the area. These results provide the first evidence of a biological response in heron chicks to the release of pollutants at a chlor-alkali plant. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.
Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel
2017-01-01
Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.
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The impact of leptin on perinatal development and psychopathology.
Valleau, Jeanette C; Sullivan, Elinor L
2014-11-01
Leptin has long been associated with metabolism as it is a critical regulator of both food intake and energy expenditure, but recently, leptin dysregulation has been proposed as a mechanism of psychopathology. This review discusses the evidence supporting a role for leptin in mental health disorders and describes potential mechanisms that may underlie this association. Leptin plays a critical role in pregnancy and in fetal growth and development. Leptin's role and profile during development is examined in available human studies, and the validity of applying studies conducted in animal models to the human population are discussed. Rodents experience a postnatal leptin surge, which does not occur in humans or larger animal models. This suggests that further research using large mammal models, which have a leptin profile across pregnancy and development similar to humans, are of high importance. Maternal obesity and hyperleptinemia correlate with increased leptin levels in the umbilical cord, placenta, and fetus. Leptin levels are thought to impact fetal brain development; likely by activating proinflammatory cytokines that are known to impact many of the neurotransmitter systems that regulate behavior. Leptin is likely involved in behavioral regulation as leptin receptors are widely distributed in the brain, and leptin influences cortisol release, the mesoaccumbens dopamine pathway, serotonin synthesis, and hippocampal synaptic plasticity. In humans, both high and low levels of leptin are reported to be associated with psychopathology. This inconsistency is likely due to differences in the metabolic state of the study populations. Leptin resistance, which occurs in the obese state, may explain how both high and low levels of leptin are associated with psychopathology, as well as the comorbidity of obesity with numerous mental illnesses. Leptin resistance is likely to influence disorders such as depression and anxiety where high leptin levels have been correlated with symptomatology. Schizophrenia is also associated with both low and high leptin levels. However, as anti-psychotics pharmacotherapy induces weight gain, which elevates leptin levels, drug-naïve populations are needed for further studies. Elevated circulating leptin is consistently found in childhood neurodevelopmental disorders including autism spectrum disorders and Rhett disorder. Further, studies on the impact of leptin and leptin resistance on psychopathology and neurodevelopmental disorders are important directions for future research. Studies examining the mechanisms by which exposure to maternal obesity and hyperleptinemia during fetal development impact brain development and behavior are critical for the health of future generations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The Impact of Leptin on Perinatal Development and Psychopathology
Valleau, Jeanette C.; Sullivan, Elinor L.
2014-01-01
Leptin has long been associated with metabolism as it is a critical regulator of both food intake and energy expenditure, but recently, leptin dysregulation has been proposed as a mechanism of psychopathology. This review discusses the evidence supporting a role for leptin in mental health disorders and describes potential mechanisms that may underlie this association. Leptin plays a critical role in pregnancy and in fetal growth and development. Leptin’s role and profile during development is examined in available human studies and the validity of applying studies conducted in animal models to the human population are discussed. Rodents experience a postnatal leptin surge, which does not occur in humans or larger animal models. This suggests that further research using large mammal models, which have a leptin profile across pregnancy and development similar to humans, are of high importance. Maternal obesity and hyperleptinemia correlate with increased leptin levels in the umbilical cord, placenta, and fetus. Leptin levels are thought to impact fetal brain development; likely by activating proinflammatory cytokines that are known to impact many of the neurotransmitter systems that regulate behavior. Leptin is likely involved in behavioral regulation as leptin receptors are widely distributed in the brain, and leptin influences cortisol release, the mesoaccumbens dopamine pathway, serotonin synthesis, and hippocampal synaptic plasticity. In humans, both high and low levels of leptin are reported to be associated with psychopathology. This inconsistency is likely due to differences in the metabolic state of the study populations. Leptin resistance, which occurs in the obese state, may explain how both high and low levels of leptin are associated with psychopathology, as well as the comorbidity of obesity with numerous mental illnesses. Leptin resistance is likely to influence disorders such as depression and anxiety where both high and low leptin levels have been correlated with symptomatology. Schizophrenia is also associated with both low and high leptin levels. However, as antipsychotics pharmacotherapy induces weight gain, which elevates leptin levels, drug-naïve populations are needed for further studies. Elevated circulating leptin is consistently found in childhood neurodevelopmental disorders including Autism Spectrum Disorders and Rhett disorder. Further studies on the impact of leptin and leptin resistance on psychopathology and neurodevelopmental disorders are important directions for future research. Studies examining the mechanisms by which exposure to maternal obesity and hyperleptinemia during fetal development impact brain development and behavior are critical for the health of future generations. PMID:24862904
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Linton, Danielle M; Macdonald, David W
2018-04-10
Climate is known to influence breeding phenology and reproductive success in temperate-zone bats, but long-term population level studies and interspecific comparisons are rare. Investigating the extent to which intrinsic (i.e. age), and extrinsic (i.e. spring weather conditions), factors influence such key demographic parameters as the proportion of females becoming pregnant, or completing lactation, each breeding season, is vital to understanding of bat population ecology and life-history traits. Using data from 12 breeding seasons (2006-2017), encompassing the reproductive histories of 623 Myotis daubentonii and 436 Myotis nattereri adult females, we compare rates of recruitment to the breeding population and show that these species differ in their relative sensitivity to environmental conditions and climatic variation, affecting annual reproductive success at the population level. We demonstrate that (1) spring weather conditions influence breeding phenology, with warm, dry and calm conditions leading to earlier parturition dates and advanced juvenile development, whilst cold, wet and windy weather delays birth timing and juvenile growth; (2) reproductive rates in first-year females are influenced by spring weather conditions in that breeding season and in the preceding breeding season when each cohort was born. Pregnancy and lactation rates were both higher when favourable spring foraging conditions were more prevalent; (3) reproductive success increases with age in both species, but at different rates; (4) reproductive rates were consistently higher, and showed less interannual variation, in second-year and older M. daubentonii (mean 91.55% ± 0.05 SD) than M. nattereri (mean 72.74% ± 0.15 SD); (5) estimates of reproductive success at the population level were highly correlated with the size of the juvenile cohort recorded each breeding season. Improving understanding of the influence of environmental conditions, especially extreme climatic fluctuations, and the identification of critical periods (i.e. spring for reproductive female bats in temperate zones), which have disproportionate and lasting impacts on breeding phenology and reproductive success at a population level, is critical for improving predictions of the likely impact of climate change on bat populations. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.
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Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Packer, Catherine; Dick, Anna; Kirsch, Thomas D.
2013-01-01
Introduction. Population growth and increasing urbanization in earthquake-prone areas suggest that earthquake impacts on human populations will increase in the coming decades. Recent large earthquakes affecting large populations in Japan, Haiti, Chile and New Zealand are evidence of this trend and also illustrate significant variations in outcomes such damage and mortality levels. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of earthquakes on human populations in terms of mortality, injury and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of earthquakes were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to mid 2009 of earthquake events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications, ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between earthquake mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. From 1980 through 2009, there were a total of 372,634 deaths (range 314,634-412,599), 995,219 injuries (range: 845,345-1,145,093), and more than 61 million people affected by earthquakes, and mortality was greatest in Asia. Inconsistent reporting across data sources suggests that the numbers injured and affected are likely underestimates. Findings from a systematic review of the literature indicate that the primary cause of earthquake-related death was trauma due to building collapse and, the very young and the elderly were at increased mortality risk, while gender was not consistently associated with mortality risk. Conclusions. Strategies to mitigate the impact of future earthquakes should include improvements to the built environment and a focus on populations most vulnerable to mortality and injury. PMID:23857161
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Effects of oil on avian reproduction: A review and discussion
Albers, P.H.; Rosie, Don; Barnes, Stephen N.
1983-01-01
Oil pollution is a highly visible form of environmental contamination that affects avian reproduction in a variety of ways. Plumage oiling causes widespread and locally severe mortality of adult birds. Egg oiling can be a serious hazard for bird embryos but only a few field observationons of this have been reported. Oil ingestion seldom kills birds directly but it causes sublethal change~ in the bodily functions and behavior of adults and nestlings. Studies of the effects of oil on avian reproduction have produced varied and, in ingestion studies, sometimes conflicting results because of inconsistent experimental design and the use of different test species and types of oil. Field experimentation with the sublethal effects of ingested oil on avian reproduction has been limited. Simulation modelling of seabird populations has shown that (l) an occasional decrease in survival of breeding adults will have a greater impact on seabird populations than an occasional decrease in reproductive success, and (2) populations of long-lived seabirds with low reproductive potential have great difficulty recovering from high one-time mortality when experiencing even small sustained annual decreases in either natality or breeding adult survival. The impact of oil-related decreases in survival or reproduction will be more noticeable at the local or colony level than at the regional or species level. Immigration, surplus breeders, and possible compensatory changes in natality and mortality resulting from population reductions usually prevent local population reductions from lasting very long (unless the species is rare or at the edge of its range). A study of west European seabird populations indicates that the natural annual mortality of the region greatly exceeds the annual mortality due to plumage oiling; effects of oil ingestion and egg oiling were not measured but were thought to be less than the mortality from plu~age oiling. Oil-related mortality, even if in addition to expected mortality, would not have a detectable impact on regional populations if environmental conditions were favorable (increased natality, decreased mortality) for the birds.
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[THE STUDY OF MANIFESTATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL].
Shmandiy, V M; Kharlamova, E V; Rugas, T E
2015-01-01
Elaborated methodological approaches to the monitoring of the state of ecological safety are based on the use of systems analysis of conditions and consistent patterns of the formation of the ecological danger search for effective means and methods of safety management. Ecological hazard is considered as a hierarchical structure, consisting of types, classes, species and subsubspecies. In industrially developed regions the most significant are technogenic and sociogenic classes. The sociogenic class of danger was proved to be primary in its formation, as the level of environmental awareness is largely determined by the degree of impact on human health and environment, manifestations of the danger of other classes are depend on it. When analyzing the state of danger there was applied the anthropocentric approach. There was used an assembly of characteristics considering the health status of the population of the certain territory under the influence of factors of environmental hazard. On the base of the colligation of literature data and the results of own observations there was suggested a generalized index of the state of the population'S health in socio-economic areas, there were selected zones with differing level of the technogenic loads and also rural areas beyond objects of technogenic impact. On results of studies there was proved the relationship between the level of the environmental hazard and state of the population's in various socio-economic zones.
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Geochemical Legacies and the Future Health of Cities: An Analysis of two Neurotoxins in Urban Soils
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Filippelli, G. M.; Risch, M.
2015-12-01
The past and future of cities are inextricably linked, a linkage that can be seen clearly in the long-term impacts of urban geochemical legacies. As loci of population as well as the means of employment and industry to support these populations, cities have a long history of co-locating contaminating practices and people, sometimes with negative implications for human health. Working at the intersection between geochemical processes, communities, and human health is critical to grapple with environmental legacies and to support healthy, sustainable, and growing urban populations. An emerging area of environmental health research is to understand the impacts of chronic exposures and exposure mixtures—these impacts are very poorly studied, yet have materialized as perhaps the greatest threat to large-scale population health. Acute exposure to lead (Pb), a powerful neurotoxin to which children are particularly susceptible, has largely been eliminated in the U.S. and other countries through policy-based restrictions on leaded gasoline and lead-based paints. But these legacy Pb sources are still around in the form of surface soil Pb contamination, a common problem in cities and one that has only recently emerged as a pernicious and widespread chronic exposure mechanism in cities. Some urban soils are also contaminated with another neurotoxin, mercury (Hg), although very little work has been done to understand human exposures to low levels of this element in soils. The most documented human exposure to Hg is through fish consumption, so eating fish caught in urban areas presents risks for above average dietary Hg exposure. The potential double impact of chronic exposure to these two neurotoxins is pronounced in cities. Many aspects of the dose-response curves for individual elements and mixtures are poorly understood, especially at lower levels, leaving unanswered several interesting and provocative questions about environmental impacts on neurological and developmental disorders.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dowhaniuk, Nicholas; Hartter, Joel; Congalton, Russell G.; Palace, Michael W.; Ryan, Sadie J.
2016-04-01
Protected areas in Sub-Saharan Africa are sanctuaries for rich biodiversity and are important economic engines for African nations, but they are becoming increasingly threatened by discoveries of mineral deposits within and nearby their boundaries. In 2006, viable oil reserves were discovered in Murchison Falls Conservation Area (MFCA) in northern Uganda. Exploratory and appraisal activities concluded in 2014, and production is expected to begin in 2016. The oil development is associated with a substantial increase in human population outside MFCA, with people seeking jobs, land, and economic opportunity. Concomitant with this change is increased truck traffic, a sprawling and denser road network, and infrastructure within the park, which could have large impacts on both the flora and fauna. We examined the broader protected area landscape and the potential feedbacks from resource development on the ecosystem and local livelihoods. Our analysis combines a land cover analysis using Object Based Image Analysis of Landsat data (2002 and 2014), migration patterns and population change (1959-2014), and qualitative interview data. Our results suggest that most of the larger-scale impacts on the landscape and people are occurring in the western and northern sections, both inside and outside of the park. Additionally, oil development is not the only factor in the region influencing population growth and landscape change. Post conflict regrowth in the north, sugarcane production in the south, and migration to this region from conflict-ridden neighboring countries are also playing a vital role in human migration shaping the MFCA Landscape. Understanding the social and environmental changes and impacts in the MFCA and its surrounding areas will add to limited literature on the impacts of resource extraction on local, subsistence communities and landscape level change, which will be important as access and pressure for oil and minerals within protected areas continues to rise.
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Conservation genetics of managed ungulate populations
Scribner, Kim T.
1993-01-01
Natural populations of many species are increasingly impacted by human activities. Perturbations are particularly pronunced for large ungulates due in part to sport and commercial harvest, to reductions and fragmentation of native habitat, and as the result of reintroductions. These perturbations affect population size, sex and age composition, and population breeding structure, and as a consequence affect the levels and partitioning of genetic variation. Three case histories highlighting long-term ecological genetic research on mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817), white-tailed deer O. virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), and Alpine ibex Capra i. ibex Linnaeus, 1758 are presented. Joint examinations of population ecological and genetic data from several populations of each species reveal: (1) that populations are not in genetic equilibrium, but that allele frequencies and heterozygosity change dramatically over time and among cohorts produced in successive years, (2) populations are genetically structured over short and large geographic distances reflecting local breeding structure and patterns of gene flow, respectively; however, this structure is quite dynamic over time, due in part to population exploitation, and (3) restocking programs are often undertaken with small numbers of founding individuals resulting in dramatic declines in levels of genetic variability and increasing levels of genetic differentiation among populations due to genetic drift. Genetic characteristics have and will continue to provide valuable indirect sources of information relating enviromental and human perturbations to changes in population processes.
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Bishop, Christine A; Williams, Kathleen E; Kirk, David A; Nantel, Patrick; Reed, Eric; Elliott, John E
2016-09-01
Strychnine is a neurotoxin and an active ingredient in some rodenticides which are placed in burrows to suppress pocket gopher (Thomomys talpoides) populations in range and crop land in western North America. The population level impact was modelled of the use of strychnine-based rodenticides on a non-target snake species, the Great Basin Gophersnake (Pituophis catenifer deserticola), which is a predator of pocket gopher and a Species at Risk in Canada. Using information on population density, demographics, and movement and habitat suitability for the Gophersnake living in an agricultural valley in BC, Canada, we estimated the impact of the poisoning of adult snakes on the long-term population size. To determine the area where Gophersnakes could be exposed to strychnine, we used vendor records of a rodenticide, and quantified the landcover areas of orchards and vineyards where the compound was most commonly applied. GIS analysis determined the areas of overlap between those agricultural lands and suitable habitats used by Gophersnakes. Stage-based population matrix models revealed that in a low density (0.1/ha) population scenario, a diet of one pocket gopher per year wherein 10 % of them carried enough strychnine to kill an adult snake could cause the loss of 2 females annually from the population and this would reduce the population by 35.3 % in 25 years. Under the same dietary exposure, up to 35 females could die per year in a high density (0.4/ha) population which would result in a loss of 50 % of adults in 25 years.
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Comparative Policy Brief: Status of Intellectual Disabilities in the Republic of Cuba
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Brice, Alejandro E.
2008-01-01
It is estimated that 3.2% of Cuba's population of 11.4 million persons has a severe disability of some kind. Recent economic difficulties have, it may be assumed, had a negative impact on health service provision--which is free to all--and thus, on population health outcomes and nutritional levels. There is a traditional culture of family care for…
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Ralph Alig
2010-01-01
Since World War II, socio-economic drivers of US urbanization such as population totals and personal income levels have increased substantially. Human land use is the primary force driving changes in forest ecosystem attributes including forest area, which is the focus of this paper. The percentage of the US population residing in urban areas is higher than that in...
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Harvey, Alison C; Glover, Kevin A; Taylor, Martin I; Creer, Simon; Carvalho, Gary R
2016-03-01
Released individuals can have negative impacts on native populations through various mechanisms, including competition, disease transfer and introduction of maladapted gene complexes. Previous studies indicate that the level of farmed Atlantic salmon introgression in native populations is population specific. However, few studies have explored the potential role of population diversity or river characteristics, such as temperature, on the consequences of hybridization. We compared freshwater growth of multiple families derived from two farmed, five wild and two F1 hybrid salmon populations at three contrasting temperatures (7°C, 12°C and 16°C) in a common garden experiment. As expected, farmed salmon outgrew wild salmon at all temperatures, with hybrids displaying intermediate growth. However, differences in growth were population specific and some wild populations performed better than others relative to the hybrid and farmed populations at certain temperatures. Therefore, the competitive balance between farmed and wild salmon may depend both on the thermal profile of the river and on the genetic characteristics of the respective farmed and wild strains. While limited to F1 hybridization, this study shows the merits in adopting a more complex spatially resolved approach to risk management of local populations.
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Impacts of Human Recreation on Brown Bears (Ursus arctos): A Review and New Management Tool.
Fortin, Jennifer K; Rode, Karyn D; Hilderbrand, Grant V; Wilder, James; Farley, Sean; Jorgensen, Carole; Marcot, Bruce G
2016-01-01
Increased popularity of recreational activities in natural areas has led to the need to better understand their impacts on wildlife. The majority of research conducted to date has focused on behavioral effects from individual recreations, thus there is a limited understanding of the potential for population-level or cumulative effects. Brown bears (Ursus arctos) are the focus of a growing wildlife viewing industry and are found in habitats frequented by recreationists. Managers face difficult decisions in balancing recreational opportunities with habitat protection for wildlife. Here, we integrate results from empirical studies with expert knowledge to better understand the potential population-level effects of recreational activities on brown bears. We conducted a literature review and Delphi survey of brown bear experts to better understand the frequencies and types of recreations occurring in bear habitats and their potential effects, and to identify management solutions and research needs. We then developed a Bayesian network model that allows managers to estimate the potential effects of recreational management decisions in bear habitats. A higher proportion of individual brown bears in coastal habitats were exposed to recreation, including photography and bear-viewing than bears in interior habitats where camping and hiking were more common. Our results suggest that the primary mechanism by which recreation may impact brown bears is through temporal and spatial displacement with associated increases in energetic costs and declines in nutritional intake. Killings in defense of life and property were found to be minimally associated with recreation in Alaska, but are important considerations in population management. Regulating recreation to occur predictably in space and time and limiting recreation in habitats with concentrated food resources reduces impacts on food intake and may thereby, reduce impacts on reproduction and survival. Our results suggest that decisions managers make about regulating recreational activities in time and space have important consequences for bear populations. The Bayesian network model developed here provides a new tool for managers to balance demands of multiple recreational activities while supporting healthy bear populations.
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The impacts of human recreation on brown bears (Ursus arctos): A review and new management tool
Fortin-noreus, Jennifer; Rode, Karyn D.; Hilderbrand, Grant V.; Wilder, James; Farley, Sean; Jorgensen, Carole; Marcot, Bruce G.
2016-01-01
Increased popularity of recreational activities in natural areas has led to the need to better understand their impacts on wildlife. The majority of research conducted to date has focused on behavioral effects from individual recreations, thus there is a limited understanding of the potential for population-level or cumulative effects. Brown bears (Ursus arctos) are the focus of a growing wildlife viewing industry and are found in habitats frequented by recreationists. Managers face difficult decisions in balancing recreational opportunities with habitat protection for wildlife. Here, we integrate results from empirical studies with expert knowledge to better understand the potential population-level effects of recreational activities on brown bears. We conducted a literature review and Delphi survey of brown bear experts to better understand the frequencies and types of recreations occurring in bear habitats and their potential effects, and to identify management solutions and research needs. We then developed a Bayesian network model that allows managers to estimate the potential effects of recreational management decisions in bear habitats. A higher proportion of individual brown bears in coastal habitats were exposed to recreation, including photography and bear-viewing than bears in interior habitats where camping and hiking were more common. Our results suggest that the primary mechanism by which recreation may impact brown bears is through temporal and spatial displacement with associated increases in energetic costs and declines in nutritional intake. Killings in defense of life and property were found to be minimally associated with recreation in Alaska, but are important considerations in population management. Regulating recreation to occur predictably in space and time and limiting recreation in habitats with concentrated food resources reduces impacts on food intake and may thereby, reduce impacts on reproduction and survival. Our results suggest that decisions managers make about regulating recreational activities in time and space have important consequences for bear populations. The Bayesian network model developed here provides a new tool for managers to balance demands of multiple recreational activities while supporting healthy bear populations.
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Impacts of Human Recreation on Brown Bears (Ursus arctos): A Review and New Management Tool
Fortin, Jennifer K.; Rode, Karyn D.; Hilderbrand, Grant V.; Wilder, James; Farley, Sean; Jorgensen, Carole; Marcot, Bruce G.
2016-01-01
Increased popularity of recreational activities in natural areas has led to the need to better understand their impacts on wildlife. The majority of research conducted to date has focused on behavioral effects from individual recreations, thus there is a limited understanding of the potential for population-level or cumulative effects. Brown bears (Ursus arctos) are the focus of a growing wildlife viewing industry and are found in habitats frequented by recreationists. Managers face difficult decisions in balancing recreational opportunities with habitat protection for wildlife. Here, we integrate results from empirical studies with expert knowledge to better understand the potential population-level effects of recreational activities on brown bears. We conducted a literature review and Delphi survey of brown bear experts to better understand the frequencies and types of recreations occurring in bear habitats and their potential effects, and to identify management solutions and research needs. We then developed a Bayesian network model that allows managers to estimate the potential effects of recreational management decisions in bear habitats. A higher proportion of individual brown bears in coastal habitats were exposed to recreation, including photography and bear-viewing than bears in interior habitats where camping and hiking were more common. Our results suggest that the primary mechanism by which recreation may impact brown bears is through temporal and spatial displacement with associated increases in energetic costs and declines in nutritional intake. Killings in defense of life and property were found to be minimally associated with recreation in Alaska, but are important considerations in population management. Regulating recreation to occur predictably in space and time and limiting recreation in habitats with concentrated food resources reduces impacts on food intake and may thereby, reduce impacts on reproduction and survival. Our results suggest that decisions managers make about regulating recreational activities in time and space have important consequences for bear populations. The Bayesian network model developed here provides a new tool for managers to balance demands of multiple recreational activities while supporting healthy bear populations. PMID:26731652
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The impact of Pleistocene glaciation across the range of a widespread European coastal species.
Wilson, Anthony B; Eigenmann Veraguth, Iris
2010-10-01
There is a growing consensus that much of the contemporary phylogeography of northern hemisphere coastal taxa reflects the impact of Pleistocene glaciation, when glaciers covered much of the coastline at higher latitudes and sea levels dropped by as much as 150 m. The genetic signature of postglacial recolonization has been detected in many marine species, but the effects of coastal glaciation are not ubiquitous, leading to suggestions that species may intrinsically differ in their ability to respond to the environmental change associated with glacial cycles. Such variation may indeed have a biological basis, but apparent differences in population structure among taxa may also stem from our heavy reliance on individual mitochondrial loci, which are strongly influenced by stochasticity during coalescence. We investigated the contemporary population genetics of Syngnathus typhle, one of the most widespread European coastal fish species, using a multilocus data set to investigate the influence of Pleistocene glaciation and reduced sea levels on its phylogeography. A strong signal of postglacial recolonization was detected at both the northern and eastern ends of the species' distribution, while southern populations appear to have been relatively unaffected by the last glacial cycle. Patterns of population variation and differentiation at nuclear and mitochondrial loci differ significantly, but simulations indicate that these differences can be explained by the stochastic nature of the coalescent process. These results demonstrate the strength of a multilocus approach to phylogeography and suggest that an overdependence on mitochondrial loci may provide a misleading picture of population-level processes. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Louisiana's Coastal Crisis: Characterizing Household and Community-Level Impacts and Responses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Austin, D. E.
2017-12-01
Rich in natural resources and critical ecosystems, the Mississippi delta also is the site of numerous human communities, from sparsely populated towns to dense urban neighborhoods. People who live and work within the delta face major challenges as they confront land loss, subsidence, and storms. This presentation outlines key household and community-level impacts of these environmental changes and both individual and collective responses to them. Based on two decades of applied ethnographic research in the region, as well as the author's participation as an advisor to federal, state, and local organizations, the presentation considers historical and contemporary processes and practices, social organization, and cultural dynamics to analyze proposed policies for addressing the impacts.
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Guiding Design of University STEM Courses Based on Gifted Status and Strategies for Success
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hawthorne Allen, A. M.
2016-12-01
Starting from general population statistics and the self-selection of STEM majors by students, it can be concluded that science classes have a population of students trending towards the gifted, regardless of academic institution and admissions selectivity. On average, upper level and graduate STEM courses have an increasingly larger fraction of gifted students. I propose that the average level of giftedness of the students within a course serves as an overriding characteristic that is more significant than other demographic variables. Using this model when designing a STEM course can lead to more successful learning outcomes. In 1991, the Columbus Group defined giftedness as "asynchronous development in which advanced cognitive abilities and heightened intensity combine to create inner experiences and awareness than are qualitatively different from the norm." These gifted characteristics are fundamentally innate lifelong traits that persist beyond K-12 designations and into our college classrooms. As this broader understanding of giftedness has emerged, myths and stereotypes in prior literature have also become clearer. Understanding and naming these myths can better impact our teaching effectiveness. While the diversity of gifted populations makes generalization difficult, gifted individuals can be described as having the following: asynchronous development, increased perceptivity, high sensitivity, perfectionism, and intensity. Several levels of giftedness have been identified on the basis of IQ scores or innate characteristics from birth. In addition, students who are twice-exceptional are yet another subpopulation present in our classes. If the average gifted level of STEM majors is higher than the norm population for a typical level of education, then understanding the characteristics of the subpopulations and the impact on classroom dynamics is essential. This directly impacts our STEM teaching pedagogy and style if productive learning outcomes are to be attained. For example, modern STEM teaching utilizes pedagogical interventions that typically involve active learning. The success of such interventions will interact with the gifted profile of students in a given class. In this presentation, I describe strategies, frameworks, and concrete examples that work for such students.
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Gafarov, V V; Panov, D O; Gromova, E A; Gagulin, I V; Gafarova, A V
2015-01-01
To determine the impact of workplace stress on the hazard ratio (HR) of myocardial infarction (M) and stroke in an open female population aged 25-64 years in Russia/Siberia (Novosibirsk) for 16 years. A random representative sample of 25-64-year-old women (n=870) residing in a Novosibirsk district was surveyed within the framework of the WHO
program. Workplace stress was investigated using the Karasek scale; an attitude towards work and health prophylactic examinations was studied applying the Health Awareness and Attitude questionnaire of the WHO program. For 16 years (1994 to 2010), a cohort of all new cases of MI and stroke was examined employing the WHO program and all possible medical records. The Cox regression model was used to determine HR for MI and stroke in the open female population aged 25-64 years for 16 years. The prevalence of high-level stress in the open female population aged 25-64 years was 31.6%. The high level of job stress was associated with a high responsibility, impossibility to have a rest at the end of a working day, frequent professional dissatisfaction, and a reduced work capacity. During 16 years, the women having high-level job stress showed a 3.22- and 1.96-fold increases in the HR of MI (p<0.05) and stroke (p<0.05), respectively. The incidence of MI and stroke was higher in married women expressing job stress as managers or manual laborers and having high and low educational attainment. The prevalence of high-level workplace stress was substantial in the open population of 25-64-year-old women in Russia/Siberia (Novosibirsk). The stress-related HR of Ml and stroke was 3-2 times higher than in those without high-level stress. The HR of MI and stroke is affected by a social gradient. -
Global population trajectories of tunas and their relatives
Juan-Jordá, Maria José; Mosqueira, Iago; Cooper, Andrew B.; Freire, Juan; Dulvy, Nicholas K.
2011-01-01
Tunas and their relatives dominate the world's largest ecosystems and sustain some of the most valuable fisheries. The impacts of fishing on these species have been debated intensively over the past decade, giving rise to divergent views on the scale and extent of the impacts of fisheries on pelagic ecosystems. We use all available age-structured stock assessments to evaluate the adult biomass trajectories and exploitation status of 26 populations of tunas and their relatives (17 tunas, 5 mackerels, and 4 Spanish mackerels) from 1954 to 2006. Overall, populations have declined, on average, by 60% over the past half century, but the decline in the total adult biomass is lower (52%), driven by a few abundant populations. The trajectories of individual populations depend on the interaction between life histories, ecology, and fishing pressure. The steepest declines are exhibited by two distinct groups: the largest, longest lived, highest value temperate tunas and the smaller, short-lived mackerels, both with most of their populations being overexploited. The remaining populations, mostly tropical tunas, have been fished down to approximately maximum sustainable yield levels, preventing further expansion of catches in these fisheries. Fishing mortality has increased steadily to the point where around 12.5% of the tunas and their relatives are caught each year globally. Overcapacity of these fisheries is jeopardizing their long-term sustainability. To guarantee higher catches, stabilize profits, and reduce collateral impacts on marine ecosystems requires the rebuilding of overexploited populations and stricter management measures to reduce overcapacity and regulate threatening trade. PMID:22143785
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Impact of sea level rise on tide gate function.
Walsh, Sean; Miskewitz, Robert
2013-01-01
Sea level rise resulting from climate change and land subsidence is expected to severely impact the duration and associated damage resulting from flooding events in tidal communities. These communities must continuously invest resources for the maintenance of existing structures and installation of new flood prevention infrastructure. Tide gates are a common flood prevention structure for low-lying communities in the tidal zone. Tide gates close during incoming tides to prevent inundation from downstream water propagating inland and open during outgoing tides to drain upland areas. Higher downstream mean sea level elevations reduce the effectiveness of tide gates by impacting the hydraulics of the system. This project developed a HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS model of an existing tide gate structure and its upland drainage area in the New Jersey Meadowlands to simulate the impact of rising mean sea level elevations on the tide gate's ability to prevent upstream flooding. Model predictions indicate that sea level rise will reduce the tide gate effectiveness resulting in longer lasting and deeper flood events. The results indicate that there is a critical point in the sea level elevation for this local area, beyond which flooding scenarios become dramatically worse and would have a significantly negative impact on the standard of living and ability to do business in one of the most densely populated areas of America.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Solecki, William; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, Stephen; Patrick, Lesley; Horton, Radley; Dorsch, Michael
2016-01-01
New York City, one of the most populous and ethnically diverse cities in the world, has responded to a variety of enviornmental challenges in its history. The most recent is climate change, which is projected to have wide impacts on the city's critical infrastructure and population through higher temperatures, more intense flooding events and sea level rise. The city recognized the risks early and has become a national and international leader in responding to this new challenge, illustrating how this is possible for a large city. As part of a mature urban region, it is an excellent bellwether for the impacts that may be experienced by other cities, especially those in emerging metropolitan conurbations.
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Anderson, David G; Bissett, Thaddeus G; Yerka, Stephen J; Wells, Joshua J; Kansa, Eric C; Kansa, Sarah W; Myers, Kelsey Noack; DeMuth, R Carl; White, Devin A
2017-01-01
The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts.
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Wells, Joshua J.; Kansa, Eric C.; Kansa, Sarah W.; Myers, Kelsey Noack; DeMuth, R. Carl; White, Devin A.
2017-01-01
The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts. PMID:29186200
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Richards, Paul M.; Mooij, Wolf M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.
2004-01-01
Everglades restoration will alter the hydrology of South Florida, affecting both water depth and salinity levels in the southern fringes of the Everglades, the habitat of the endangered American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus). A key question is what the effects of these hydrologic changes will be on the crocodile population. Reliable predictions of the viability of endangered species under a variety of management scenarios are of vital importance in conservation ecology. Juvenile American crocodiles are thought to be sensitive to high salinity levels, suffering reduced mass, and potentially reduced survivorship and recruitment. This could negatively impact the population recovery. We addressed the management issue of how the crocodile population will respond to alterations in hydrology with a spatially explicit individual-based model. The model is designed to relate water levels, salinities, and dominant vegetation to crocodile distribution, abundance, population growth, individual growth, survival, nesting effort, and nesting success. Our analysis shows that Everglades restoration, through its effects on water flow to estuaries, may benefit crocodile populations if increased freshwater flow reduces the chance that regional salinity levels exceed levels where small individuals lose mass. In addition, we conclude that conservation priority should be placed on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality on large individuals, such as road mortality. Finally, research should focus on estimates of annual survivorship for large individuals.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bromhead, Don; Scholey, Vernon; Nicol, Simon; Margulies, Daniel; Wexler, Jeanne; Stein, Maria; Hoyle, Simon; Lennert-Cody, Cleridy; Williamson, Jane; Havenhand, Jonathan; Ilyina, Tatiana; Lehodey, Patrick
2015-03-01
Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are resulting in increasing absorption of CO2 by the earth's oceans, which has led to a decline in ocean pH, a process known as ocean acidification (OA). Evidence suggests that OA may have the potential to affect the distribution and population dynamics of many marine organisms. Early life history processes (e.g. fertilization) and stages (eggs, larvae, juveniles) may be relatively more vulnerable to potential OA impacts, with implications for recruitment in marine populations. The potential impact of OA upon tuna populations has not been investigated, although tuna are key components of pelagic ecosystems and, in the Pacific Ocean, form the basis of one of the largest and most valuable fisheries in the world. This paper reviews current knowledge of potential OA impacts on fish and presents results from a pilot study investigating how OA may affect eggs and larvae of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares. Two separate trials were conducted to test the impact of pCO2 on yellowfin egg stage duration, larval growth and survival. The pCO2 levels tested ranged from present day ( 400 μatm) to levels predicted to occur in some areas of the spawning habitat within the next 100 years (<2500 μatm) to 300 years ( <5000 μatm) to much more extreme levels ( 10,000 μatm). In trial 1, there was evidence for significantly reduced larval survival (at mean pCO2 levels≥4730 μatm) and growth (at mean pCO2 levels≥2108 μatm), while egg hatch time was increased at extreme pCO2 levels≥10,000 μatm (*intermediate levels were not tested). In trial 2, egg hatch times were increased at mean pCO2 levels≥1573 μatm, but growth was only impacted at higher pCO2 (≥8800 μatm) and there was no relationship with survival. Unstable ambient conditions during trial 2 are likely to have contributed to the difference in results between trials. Despite the technical challenges with these experiments, there is a need for future empirical work which can in turn support modeling-based approaches to assess how OA will affect the ecologically and economically important tropical tuna resources.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-01-04
... expected growth in population and resulting increases in intercity travel demand between Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo. As a result of this growth in travel demand, their travel delays from the growing... environmental analysis to help make corridor level decisions regarding the level of intercity passenger rail...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-02-24
... quantitative approaches to determine the levels of taking that would result in a negligible impact to affected species or stocks of marine mammals. The quantitative approach is more appropriate for serious injury and... required a more quantitative approach for assessing what level of removals from a population stock of...
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Sharp Contrasts at the Boundaries: School Violence and Educational Outcomes Internationally
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Rutkowski, Leslie; Rutkowski, David; Engel, Laura
2013-01-01
We examine the impact of school violence on immigrant populations internationally. To do so we apply three-level models to 2007 TIMSS data to investigate the extent to which immigrant students are affected by school violence, and whether school- and educational-system levels of immigration and violence are related to achievement. We find that,…
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Effects of roads on wildlife in Arizona: How far have we traveled?
Hsiang Ling Chen; John L. Koprowski
2013-01-01
Roads are conspicuous and pervasive features of landscapes and represent one of the most significant anthropogenic impacts on natural areas and wildlife. The Madrean Archipelago is defined by natural levels of fragmentation due to geography; however, human population growth and transportation needs threaten to exacerbate levels of isolation in the region. Scientists,...
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[The public health legislation in conditions of globalization].
Yefremov, D V; Jyliyaeva, E P
2013-01-01
The article demonstrates the impact of globalization on development of public health legislation at the international level and in particular countries. The legislation is considered as a tool to decrease the globalization health risks for population
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-07-23
... capture and euthanasia to reduce deer populations to the target density and maintain that level. Donation... through the use of sharpshooting with firearms, possible capture, and euthanasia to reduce deer...
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Mapping Vulnerability to Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1900-2007
Maynard-Ford, Miriam C.; Phillips, Emily C.; Chirico, Peter G.
2008-01-01
The vulnerability of a population and its infrastructure to disastrous events is a factor of both the probability of a hazardous event occurring and the community's ability to cope with the resulting impacts. Therefore, the ability to accurately identify vulnerable populations and places in order to prepare for future hazards is of critical importance for disaster mitigation programs. This project created maps of higher spatial resolution of vulnerability to disaster in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1900 to 2007 by mapping disaster data by first-level administrative boundaries with the objective of identifying geographic trends in regional occurrences of disasters and vulnerable populations. The method of mapping by administrative level is an improvement on displaying and analyzing disasters at the country level and shows the relative intensity of vulnerability within and between countries in the region. Disaster mapping at the country level produces only a basic view of which countries experience various types of natural disasters. Through disaggregation, the data show which geographic areas of these countries, including populated areas, are historically most susceptible to different hazard types.
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Lich, Kristen Hassmiller; Tian, Yuan; Beadles, Christopher A; Williams, Linda S; Bravata, Dawn M; Cheng, Eric M; Bosworth, Hayden B; Homer, Jack B; Matchar, David B
2014-07-01
Reducing the burden of stroke is a priority for the Veterans Affairs Health System, reflected by the creation of the Veterans Affairs Stroke Quality Enhancement Research Initiative. To inform the initiative's strategic planning, we estimated the relative population-level impact and efficiency of distinct approaches to improving stroke care in the US Veteran population to inform policy and practice. A System Dynamics stroke model of the Veteran population was constructed to evaluate the relative impact of 15 intervention scenarios including both broad and targeted primary and secondary prevention and acute care/rehabilitation on cumulative (20 years) outcomes including quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, strokes prevented, stroke fatalities prevented, and the number-needed-to-treat per QALY gained. At the population level, a broad hypertension control effort yielded the largest increase in QALYs (35,517), followed by targeted prevention addressing hypertension and anticoagulation among Veterans with prior cardiovascular disease (27,856) and hypertension control among diabetics (23,100). Adjusting QALYs gained by the number of Veterans needed to treat, thrombolytic therapy with tissue-type plasminogen activator was most efficient, needing 3.1 Veterans to be treated per QALY gained. This was followed by rehabilitation (3.9) and targeted prevention addressing hypertension and anticoagulation among those with prior cardiovascular disease (5.1). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the ranking of interventions was robust to uncertainty in input parameter values. Prevention strategies tend to have larger population impacts, though interventions targeting specific high-risk groups tend to be more efficient in terms of number-needed-to-treat per QALY gained. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.
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Lich, Kristen Hassmiller; Tian, Yuan; Beadles, Christopher A.; Williams, Linda S.; Bravata, Dawn M.; Cheng, Eric M.; Bosworth, Hayden B.; Homer, Jack B.; Matchar, David B.
2014-01-01
Background and Purpose Reducing the burden of stroke is a priority for the Veterans Affairs (VA) Health System, reflected by the creation of the VA Stroke Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI). To inform the initiative's strategic planning, we estimated the relative population-level impact and efficiency of distinct approaches to improving stroke care in the United States Veteran population to inform policy and practice. Methods A System Dynamics stroke model of the Veteran population was constructed to evaluate the relative impact of 15 intervention scenarios including both broad and targeted primary and secondary prevention and acute care/rehabilitation on cumulative (20-year) outcomes including quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, strokes prevented, stroke fatalities prevented and the number-needed-to-treat (NNT) per QALY gained. Results At the population level, a broad hypertension control effort yielded the largest increase in QALYs (35,517), followed by targeted prevention addressing hypertension and anticoagulation among Veterans with prior cardiovascular disease (27,856) and hypertension control among diabetics (23,100). Adjusting QALYs gained by the number of Veterans needed to treat, thrombolytic therapy with tissue plasminogen activator was most efficient, needing 3.1 Veterans to be treated per QALY gained. This was followed by rehabilitation (3.9) and targeted prevention addressing hypertension and anticoagulation among those with prior cardiovascular disease (5.1). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the ranking of interventions was robust to uncertainty in input parameter values. Conclusions Prevention strategies tend to have larger population impacts, though interventions targeting specific high-risk groups tend to be more efficient in terms of NNT per QALY gained. PMID:24923722
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Olsen, Siri L; Töpper, Joachim P; Skarpaas, Olav; Vandvik, Vigdis; Klanderud, Kari
2016-05-01
Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate-related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co-occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population-level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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de Souza, Alexandre Santos; Torres, João Paulo Machado; Meire, Rodrigo Ornellas; Neves, Rafael Curcio; Couri, Márcia Souto; Serejo, Cristiana Silveira
2008-01-01
Organochlorinated compounds, seven indicator PCB congeners, DDT and its main metabolites, were determined in sediment and crab (Chasmagnathus granulata) samples collected from mangrove areas near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Samples were analysed according to the FAO/SIDA protocols using continuous non-polar solvent extraction and a conventional GC-ECD apparatus. The highest levels of total PCB congeners and total DDT metabolites in sediments (184.16 and 37.40 ng.g−1d.w. respectively) and crab eggs (570.62 and 98.22 ng.g−1d.w. respectively) were found at impacted mangroves. The higher PCB congeners than DDT metabolites levels suggesting a stronger industrial impact in this area. The results indicate that the population density of crab is negatively affected by sediment contamination that is reflected basically by the organochlorine content in the female eggs. The organochlorine concentration in eggs is more significant to evaluate or estimate an impact of these pollutants upon C. granulata population than the organochlorine concentration in sediment samples. PMID:18485446
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Amoako Johnson, F.; Hutton, C.; Hornby, D.; Lazar, A.; Mukhopadhyay, A.
2014-12-01
Salinity intrusion is a major climate and human induced hazard in coastal deltaic regions resulting in substantial adverse effects on crop production. Impacts are exacerbated by intensified cyclones, sea level rise and storm surges. In this regard, many farmers in the populous Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta of Bangladesh have adopted saline shrimp (Bagda) farming with associated displacement of tenant farmers and potential long term damage to the soil through chemicals used to enhance shrimp production. Despite the impact of salinity intrusion on the environment and the commonly perceived effects of shrimp farming on poverty, there has not been any systematic study that examines the associative relationships between salinisation, shrimp farming and poverty in this delta region. Using the 2011 Bangladesh Population and Housing Census and 2010 LandSat remote sensing data this study examines the spatially explicit impact of salinization as well as saline and freshwater shrimp farming on poverty in the Delta, accounting for important environmental and socio-economic predictors. The findings shows that after accounting for important environmental and socioeconomic predictors, levels and intensities of salinization as well as the extent of saline and freshwater shrimp farming in a union are significantly associated with poverty. The results of the study demonstrate that increases in levels and intensities of salinity increases the probability of a union being in the poorest quintile. As such saline water shrimp farming has the potential to reduce poverty only at high intensities, whilst low levels of freshwater shrimp farming are associated with a reduction in poverty.
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Overweight and obesity in India: policy issues from an exploratory multi-level analysis.
Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Donato, Ronald
2016-06-01
This article analyses a nationally representative household dataset-the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) conducted in 2005 to 2006-to examine factors influencing the prevalence of overweight/obesity in India. The dataset was disaggregated into four sub-population groups-urban and rural females and males-and multi-level logit regression models were used to estimate the impact of particular covariates on the likelihood of overweight/obesity. The multi-level modelling approach aimed to identify individual and macro-level contextual factors influencing this health outcome. In contrast to most studies on low-income developing countries, the findings reveal that education for females beyond a particular level of educational attainment exhibits a negative relationship with the likelihood of overweight/obesity. This relationship was not observed for males. Muslim females and all Sikh sub-populations have a higher likelihood of overweight/obesity suggesting the importance of socio-cultural influences. The results also show that the relationship between wealth and the probability of overweight/obesity is stronger for males than females highlighting the differential impact of increasing socio-economic status on gender. Multi-level analysis reveals that states exerted an independent influence on the likelihood of overweight/obesity beyond individual-level covariates, reflecting the importance of spatially related contextual factors on overweight/obesity. While this study does not disentangle macro-level 'obesogenic' environmental factors from socio-cultural network influences, the results highlight the need to refrain from adopting a 'one size fits all' policy approach in addressing the overweight/obesity epidemic facing India. Instead, policy implementation requires a more nuanced and targeted approach to incorporate the growing recognition of socio-cultural and spatial contextual factors impacting on healthy behaviours. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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DeRouen, Mindy C.; Smith, Ashley Wilder; Tao, Li; Bellizzi, Keith M.; Lynch, Charles F.; Parsons, Helen M.; Kent, Erin E.; Keegan, Theresa H. M.
2015-01-01
Objective Adolescents and young adults (AYAs) diagnosed with cancer between 15 and 39 years of age often report need for greater amounts of cancer-related information and perceive that cancer has had a negative impact on control over their life. We examined whether unmet information need and perceived control over life are associated with health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Methods We examined data from 484 AYA cancer survivors recruited from population-based cancer registries in 2007–2008. Participants completed surveys a median of 11 months after diagnosis. Multivariable linear regression analyses estimated associations of unmet cancer-related information needs and impact of cancer on control over life on HRQOL (SF-12). Results Two-thirds of AYAs reported an intermediate or high level of unmet information need, and half (47%) reported a negative impact of cancer on control. Greater unmet information need was associated with lower overall mental and physical HRQOL and lower levels of all HRQOL subscales except vitality. A negative impact on control over life was associated with lower overall mental HRQOL as well as lower HRQOL across all subscales (all p <0.05). In multivariable analyses, perceived control and unmet information need were independently associated with HRQOL (p-values for interaction >0.1). Conclusions AYA patients with cancer have high levels of unmet cancer-related information needs and perceived negative impact of cancer on control over life; both were independently associated with lower HRQOL. Addressing unmet information needs among AYA cancer survivors and finding ways to increase their sense of control may help improve HRQOL in this understudied population. PMID:25611943
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DeRouen, Mindy C; Smith, Ashley Wilder; Tao, Li; Bellizzi, Keith M; Lynch, Charles F; Parsons, Helen M; Kent, Erin E; Keegan, Theresa H M
2015-09-01
Adolescents and young adults (AYAs) diagnosed with cancer between 15 and 39 years of age often report need for greater amounts of cancer-related information and perceive that cancer has had a negative impact on control over their life. We examined whether unmet information need and perceived control over life are associated with health-related quality of life (HRQOL). We examined data from 484 AYA cancer survivors recruited from population-based cancer registries in 2007-2008. Participants completed surveys a median of 11 months after diagnosis. Multivariable linear regression analyses estimated associations of unmet cancer-related information needs and impact of cancer on control over life on HRQOL (SF-12). Two-thirds of AYAs reported an intermediate or high level of unmet information need, and half (47%) reported a negative impact of cancer on control. Greater unmet information need was associated with lower overall mental and physical HRQOL and lower levels of all HRQOL subscales except vitality. A negative impact on control over life was associated with lower overall mental HRQOL as well as lower HRQOL across all subscales except general health perceptions (all p <0.05). In multivariable analyses, perceived control and unmet information need were independently associated with HRQOL (p-values for interaction >0.1). Adolescent and young adult patients with cancer have high levels of unmet cancer-related information needs and perceived negative impact of cancer on control over life; both were independently associated with lower HRQOL. Addressing unmet information needs among AYA cancer survivors and finding ways to increase their sense of control may help improve HRQOL in this understudied population. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Large roads reduce bat activity across multiple species.
Kitzes, Justin; Merenlender, Adina
2014-01-01
Although the negative impacts of roads on many terrestrial vertebrate and bird populations are well documented, there have been few studies of the road ecology of bats. To examine the effects of large roads on bat populations, we used acoustic recorders to survey bat activity along ten 300 m transects bordering three large highways in northern California, applying a newly developed statistical classifier to identify recorded calls to the species level. Nightly counts of bat passes were analyzed with generalized linear mixed models to determine the relationship between bat activity and distance from a road. Total bat activity recorded at points adjacent to roads was found to be approximately one-half the level observed at 300 m. Statistically significant road effects were also found for the Brazilian free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis), big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus), hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus), and silver-haired bat (Lasionycteris noctivagans). The road effect was found to be temperature dependent, with hot days both increasing total activity at night and reducing the difference between activity levels near and far from roads. These results suggest that the environmental impacts of road construction may include degradation of bat habitat and that mitigation activities for this habitat loss may be necessary to protect bat populations.
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Postautotomy tail activity in the Balearic lizard, Podarcis lilfordi
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pafilis, Panayiotis; Pérez-Mellado, Valentín; Valakos, Efstratios
2008-03-01
Caudal autotomy is an effective antipredator strategy widespread among lizards. The shed tail thrashes vigorously for long periods to distract the predator and facilitate the lizard’s escape. This movement is maintained by energy supplied by the anaerobic conversion of glycogen into lactate. It has been suggested that lactate accumulation serves as an index for the vigor of tail thrashing. We made three predictions: (1) tail loss frequency should be higher under heavier predation regime, (2) the duration of postautotomy tail movement should be extended in populations under heavy predation pressure as an adaptation to the higher risk and the increased need for defense, and (3) as result, lactate in these tail tissues should be concentrated at higher levels. To eliminate the impact of phylogeny and environmental factors on the interpretation of our result, we focused exclusively on one species, the Balearic lizard ( Podarcis lilfordi). We studied three populations under different predation pressure but sharing the same climatic conditions. We found no differences among the studied populations either in postautotomy duration of tail movement or in levels of final lactate accumulation while autotomy frequency was higher where predation pressure was more intense. Τail loss effectiveness is directly influenced by the level of predation, while secondary features of the trait appear to remain independent from the impact of environment.
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Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa
2014-08-01
Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.
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Impacts of Insect Herbivores on Plant Populations.
Myers, Judith H; Sarfraz, Rana M
2017-01-31
Apparent feeding damage by insects on plants is often slight. Thus, the influences of insect herbivores on plant populations are likely minor. The role of insects on host-plant populations can be elucidated via several methods: stage-structured life tables of plant populations manipulated by herbivore exclusion and seed-addition experiments, tests of the enemy release hypothesis, studies of the effects of accidentally and intentionally introduced insect herbivores, and observations of the impacts of insect species that show outbreak population dynamics. These approaches demonstrate that some, but not all, insect herbivores influence plant population densities. At times, insect-feeding damage kills plants, but more often, it reduces plant size, growth, and seed production. Plant populations for which seed germination is site limited will not respond at the population level to reduced seed production. Insect herbivores can influence rare plant species and need to be considered in conservation programs. Alterations due to climate change in the distributions of insect herbivores indicate the possibility of new influences on host plants. Long-term studies are required to show if density-related insect behavior stabilizes plant populations or if environmental variation drives most temporal fluctuations in plant densities. Finally, insects can influence plant populations and communities through changing the diversity of nonhost species, modifying nutrient fluxes, and rejuvenating over mature forests.
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Bertoglia, María P; Gormaz, Juan G; Libuy, Matías; Sanhueza, Dérgica; Gajardo, Abraham; Srur, Andrea; Wallbaum, Magdalena; Erazo, Marcia
2017-01-01
To estimate the impact of tobacco use, sedentary lifestyle, obesity and alcohol consumption on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence in the Chilean population. The study-included 5,293 subjects with fasting glycaemia levels from the nationwide cross-sectional health survey in 2010, commissioned by the Ministry of Health, Chile. Crude and Adjusted Odds Ratio to T2DM and its corresponding 95% confidence interval were estimated through logistic regressions. Attributable fractions and population attributable fractions were estimated. T2DM prevalence was 9.5%. Sedentary lifestyles and obesity were significant risk factors for T2DM. 52,4% of T2DM could be avoided if these individuals were not obese, and at a population level, 23% of T2DM could be preventable if obesity did not exist. A 64% of T2DM is explained by sedentariness, and if people would become active, a 62,2% of the cases of diabetes could be avoided. About 79% of T2DM cases in Chile could be prevented with cost-effective strategies focused on preventing sedentary lifestyle and obesity. It's therefore urgent to implement evidence-based public health polices, aimed to decrease the prevalence of T2DM, by controlling its risk factors and consequently, reducing the complications from T2DM.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Srivastav, R. K.; Chinnapa Reddy, A. R.
2015-12-01
Recent trends in climate, land-use pattern and population has affected almost every portable water resources in the world. Due to depleting surface water and untimely distribution of precipitation, the demand to use groundwater has increased considerably. Further recent studies have shown that the groundwater stress is more in developing countries like India. This study focuses on understanding the impacts of three major factors (i.e., rainfall, land-cover and population growth) effecting the groundwater levels. For this purpose, the correlation between the trends in groundwater time series is compared with trends in rainfall, land-cover and population growth. To detect the trends in time series, two statistical methods namely, least square method and Mann-Kendall method, are adopted. The results were analyzed based on the measurements from 1800 observation wells in the Karnataka state, India. The data is obtained for a total of 9 year time period ranging from 2005 to 2013. A gridded precipitation data of 0.5o× 0.5o over the entire region is used. The change in land-cover and population data was approximately obtained from the local governing bodies. The early results show significant correlation between rainfall and groundwater time series trends. The outcomes will assess the vulnerability of groundwater levels under changing physical and hydroclimatic conditions, especially under climate change.
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Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.
Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E
2010-12-01
Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Chytridiomycosis in frogs of Mount Gede Pangrango, Indonesia.
Kusrini, M D; Skerratt, L F; Garland, S; Berger, L; Endarwin, W
2008-12-22
Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a fungus recognised as one of the causes of global amphibian population declines. To assess its occurrence, we conducted PCR diagnostic assays of 147 swab samples, from 13 species of frogs from Mount Gede Pangrango National Park, Indonesia. Four swab samples, from Rhacophorus javanus, Rana chalconota, Leptobrachium hasseltii and Limnonectes microdiscus, were positive for Bd and had low to moderate levels of infection. The sample from L. hasseltii was from a tadpole with mouthpart deformities and infection was confirmed by histology and immunohistochemistry. An additional sample from Leptophryne cruentata showed a very low level of infection (< or = 1 zoospore equivalent). This is the first record of Bd in Indonesia and in Southeast Asia, dramatically extending the global distribution of Bd, with important consequences for international amphibian disease control, conservation and trade. Consistent with declines in amphibian populations caused by Bd in other parts of the world, evidence exists for the decline and possible extirpation of amphibian populations at high elevations and some decline with recovery of populations at lower elevations on this mountain. Therefore, it is essential to manage Bd in Indonesia where it is likely to be threatening amphibian populations. This will require a national strategy to mitigate the spread of Bd in Indonesia and neighboring countries as well as the impact of that spread. It is also important to collect information on the extent of the impact of Bd on frog populations in Indonesia.
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Addressing population health and health inequalities: the role of fundamental causes.
Cerdá, Magdalena; Tracy, Melissa; Ahern, Jennifer; Galea, Sandro
2014-09-01
As a case study of the impact of universal versus targeted interventions on population health and health inequalities, we used simulations to examine (1) whether universal or targeted manipulations of collective efficacy better reduced population-level rates and racial/ethnic inequalities in violent victimization; and (2) whether experiments reduced disparities without addressing fundamental causes. We applied agent-based simulation techniques to the specific example of an intervention on neighborhood collective efficacy to reduce population-level rates and racial/ethnic inequalities in violent victimization. The agent population consisted of 4000 individuals aged 18 years and older with sociodemographic characteristics assigned to match distributions of the adult population in New York City according to the 2000 U.S. Census. Universal experiments reduced rates of victimization more than targeted experiments. However, neither experiment reduced inequalities. To reduce inequalities, it was necessary to eliminate racial/ethnic residential segregation. These simulations support the use of universal intervention but suggest that it is not possible to address inequalities in health without first addressing fundamental causes.
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Health impact assessment of traffic noise in Madrid (Spain).
Tobías, Aurelio; Recio, Alberto; Díaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina
2015-02-01
The relationship between environmental noise and health has been examined in depth. In view of the sheer number of persons exposed, attention should be focused on road traffic noise. The city of Madrid (Spain) is a densely populated metropolitan area in which 80% of all environmental noise exposure is attributed to traffic. The aim of this study was to quantify avoidable deaths resulting from reducing the impact of equivalent diurnal noise levels (LeqD) on daily cardiovascular and respiratory mortality among people aged ≥65 years in Madrid. A health impact assessment of (average 24h) LeqD and PM2.5 levels was conducted by using previously reported risk estimates of mortality rates for the period 2003-2005: For cardiovascular causes: LeqD 1.048 (1.005, 1.092) and PM2.5 1.041(1.020, 1.062) and for respiratory causes: LeqD 1.060 (1.000, 1.123) and PM2.5 1.030 (1.000, 1.062). The association found between LeqD exposure and mortality for both causes suggests an important health effect. A reduction of 1dB(A) in LeqD implies an avoidable annual mortality of 284 (31, 523) cardiovascular- and 184 (0, 190) respiratory-related deaths in the study population. The magnitude of the health impact is similar to reducing average PM2.5 levels by 10µg/m(3). Regardless of air pollution, exposure to traffic noise should be considered an important environmental factor having a significant impact on health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Burnaford, Jennifer L.; Ambrose, Richard F.; Antrim, Liam; Bohlmann, Heath; Blanchette, Carol A.; Engle, John M.; Fradkin, Steven C.; Gaddam, Rani; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Miner, Benjamin G.; Murray, Steven N.; Smith, Jayson R.; Whitaker, Stephen G.; Raimondi, Peter T.
2018-01-01
Disease outbreaks can have substantial impacts on wild populations, but the often patchy or anecdotal evidence of these impacts impedes our ability to understand outbreak dynamics. Recently however, a severe disease outbreak occurred in a group of very well-studied organisms–sea stars along the west coast of North America. We analyzed nearly two decades of data from a coordinated monitoring effort at 88 sites ranging from southern British Columbia to San Diego, California along with 2 sites near Sitka, Alaska to better understand the effects of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) on the keystone intertidal predator, Pisaster ochraceus. Quantitative surveys revealed unprecedented declines of P. ochraceus in 2014 and 2015 across nearly the entire geographic range of the species. The intensity of the impact of SSWD was not uniform across the affected area, with proportionally greater population declines in the southern regions relative to the north. The degree of population decline was unrelated to pre-outbreak P. ochraceus density, although these factors have been linked in other well-documented disease events. While elevated seawater temperatures were not broadly linked to the initial emergence of SSWD, anomalously high seawater temperatures in 2014 and 2015 might have exacerbated the disease’s impact. Both before and after the onset of the SSWD outbreak, we documented higher recruitment of P. ochraceus in the north than in the south, and while some juveniles are surviving (as evidenced by transition of recruitment pulses to larger size classes), post-SSWD survivorship is lower than during pre-SSWD periods. In hindsight, our data suggest that the SSWD event defied prediction based on two factors found to be important in other marine disease events, sea water temperature and population density, and illustrate the importance of surveillance of natural populations as one element of an integrated approach to marine disease ecology. Low levels of SSWD-symptomatic sea stars are still present throughout the impacted range, thus the outlook for population recovery is uncertain. PMID:29558484
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Extreme Water Levels in Bangladesh: Past Trends, Future Projections and their Impact on Mortality
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thiele-Eich, I.; Burkart, K.; Hopson, T. M.; Simmer, C.
2014-12-01
Climate change is expected to have an impact on meteorological and therefore hydrological extremes, thereby possibly altering the vulnerability of exposed populations. Our study focuses on Bangladesh, which is particularly vulnerable to changes in extremes due to both the large population at risk, as well as geographical characteristics such as the low-rising slope of the country through which the outflow of the combined catchments of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers (GBM, ~1.75 million km2) is channeled.Time series of daily discharge and water level data for the past 100 years were analyzed with respect to trends in frequency, magnitude and duration, focusing on rare but particularly high-risk events using extreme-value theory. Mortality data is available for a five-year period (2003-2007), with a distributed lag non-linear model used to examine possible connections between extreme water levels and mortality. Then, using output from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4, projections were made regarding future flooding due to changes in precipitation intensity and frequency, while also accounting for the backwater effect of sea-level rise. For this, the upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow were taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5.Results show that while e.g. the mean water level did not significantly rise during the past 100 years, a change in extreme water levels can be detected. In addition, annual minimum water levels have decreased, which is of particular importance as there is a significant connection to an increase in mortality for low water levels. While mortality does not seem to increase significantly due to extreme floods, our results indicate that return levels projected for the future shift progressively, with the effect being strongest for RCP 8.5. Further measures to strengthen the resilience of the exposed population are therefore required to ensure that climate change effects do not overwhelm the population's coping capacities.
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Emerging Infectious Disease Leads to Rapid Population Declines of Common British Birds
Toms, Mike P.; Peck, Kirsi M.; Kirkwood, James K.; Chantrey, Julian; Clatworthy, Innes R.; Evans, Andy D.; Hughes, Laura A.; Hutchinson, Oliver C.; John, Shinto K.; Pennycott, Tom W.; Perkins, Matthew W.; Rowley, Peter S.; Simpson, Vic R.; Tyler, Kevin M.; Cunningham, Andrew A.
2010-01-01
Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period. PMID:20805869
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Gomez, Gabriela B; Borquez, Annick; Caceres, Carlos F; Segura, Eddy R; Grant, Robert M; Garnett, Geoff P; Hallett, Timothy B
2012-01-01
HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), the use of antiretroviral drugs by uninfected individuals to prevent HIV infection, has demonstrated effectiveness in preventing acquisition in a high-risk population of men who have sex with men (MSM). Consequently, there is a need to understand if and how PrEP can be used cost-effectively to prevent HIV infection in such populations. We developed a mathematical model representing the HIV epidemic among MSM and transwomen (male-to-female transgender individuals) in Lima, Peru, as a test case. PrEP effectiveness in the model is assumed to result from the combination of a "conditional efficacy" parameter and an adherence parameter. Annual operating costs from a health provider perspective were based on the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention interim guidelines for PrEP use. The model was used to investigate the population-level impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of PrEP under a range of implementation scenarios. The epidemiological impact of PrEP is largely driven by programme characteristics. For a modest PrEP coverage of 5%, over 8% of infections could be averted in a programme prioritising those at higher risk and attaining the adherence levels of the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Initiative study. Across all scenarios, the highest estimated cost per disability-adjusted life year averted (uniform strategy for a coverage level of 20%, US$1,036-US$4,254) is below the World Health Organization recommended threshold for cost-effective interventions, while only certain optimistic scenarios (low coverage of 5% and some or high prioritisation) are likely to be cost-effective using the World Bank threshold. The impact of PrEP is reduced if those on PrEP decrease condom use, but only extreme behaviour changes among non-adherers (over 80% reduction in condom use) and a low PrEP conditional efficacy (40%) would adversely impact the epidemic. However, PrEP will not arrest HIV transmission in isolation because of its incomplete effectiveness and dependence on adherence, and because the high cost of programmes limits the coverage levels that could potentially be attained. A strategic PrEP intervention could be a cost-effective addition to existing HIV prevention strategies for MSM populations. However, despite being cost-effective, a substantial expenditure would be required to generate significant reductions in incidence. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Caceres, Carlos F.; Segura, Eddy R.; Grant, Robert M.; Garnett, Geoff P.; Hallett, Timothy B.
2012-01-01
Background HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), the use of antiretroviral drugs by uninfected individuals to prevent HIV infection, has demonstrated effectiveness in preventing acquisition in a high-risk population of men who have sex with men (MSM). Consequently, there is a need to understand if and how PrEP can be used cost-effectively to prevent HIV infection in such populations. Methods and Findings We developed a mathematical model representing the HIV epidemic among MSM and transwomen (male-to-female transgender individuals) in Lima, Peru, as a test case. PrEP effectiveness in the model is assumed to result from the combination of a “conditional efficacy” parameter and an adherence parameter. Annual operating costs from a health provider perspective were based on the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention interim guidelines for PrEP use. The model was used to investigate the population-level impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of PrEP under a range of implementation scenarios. The epidemiological impact of PrEP is largely driven by programme characteristics. For a modest PrEP coverage of 5%, over 8% of infections could be averted in a programme prioritising those at higher risk and attaining the adherence levels of the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Initiative study. Across all scenarios, the highest estimated cost per disability-adjusted life year averted (uniform strategy for a coverage level of 20%, US$1,036–US$4,254) is below the World Health Organization recommended threshold for cost-effective interventions, while only certain optimistic scenarios (low coverage of 5% and some or high prioritisation) are likely to be cost-effective using the World Bank threshold. The impact of PrEP is reduced if those on PrEP decrease condom use, but only extreme behaviour changes among non-adherers (over 80% reduction in condom use) and a low PrEP conditional efficacy (40%) would adversely impact the epidemic. However, PrEP will not arrest HIV transmission in isolation because of its incomplete effectiveness and dependence on adherence, and because the high cost of programmes limits the coverage levels that could potentially be attained. Conclusions A strategic PrEP intervention could be a cost-effective addition to existing HIV prevention strategies for MSM populations. However, despite being cost-effective, a substantial expenditure would be required to generate significant reductions in incidence. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23055836
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Lachish, Shelly; Bonsall, Michael B.; Lawson, Becki; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Sheldon, Ben C.
2012-01-01
Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife can have severe effects on host populations and constitute a pressing problem for biodiversity conservation. Paridae pox is an unusually severe form of avipoxvirus infection that has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease particularly affecting an abundant songbird, the great tit (Parus major), in Great Britain. In this study, we study the invasion and establishment of Paridae pox in a long-term monitored population of wild great tits to (i) quantify the impact of this novel pathogen on host fitness and (ii) determine the potential threat it poses to population persistence. We show that Paridae pox significantly reduces the reproductive output of great tits by reducing the ability of parents to fledge young successfully and rear those young to independence. Our results also suggested that pathogen transmission from diseased parents to their offspring was possible, and that disease entails severe mortality costs for affected chicks. Application of multistate mark-recapture modelling showed that Paridae pox causes significant reductions to host survival, with particularly large effects observed for juvenile survival. Using an age-structured population model, we demonstrate that Paridae pox has the potential to reduce population growth rate, primarily through negative impacts on host survival rates. However, at currently observed prevalence, significant disease-induced population decline seems unlikely, although pox prevalence may be underestimated if capture probability of diseased individuals is low. Despite this, because pox-affected model populations exhibited lower average growth rates, this emerging infectious disease has the potential to reduce the resilience of populations to other environmental factors that reduce population size. PMID:23185263
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Lipid body accumulation alters calcium signaling dynamics in immune cells
Greineisen, William E.; Speck, Mark; Shimoda, Lori M.N.; Sung, Carl; Phan, Nolwenn; Maaetoft-Udsen, Kristina; Stokes, Alexander J.; Turner, Helen
2014-01-01
Summary There is well-established variability in the numbers of lipid bodies (LB) in macrophages, eosinophils, and neutrophils. Similarly to the steatosis observed in adipocytes and hepatocytes during hyperinsulinemia and nutrient overload, immune cell LB hyper-accumulate in response to bacterial and parasitic infection and inflammatory presentations. Recently we described that hyperinsulinemia, both in vitro and in vivo, drives steatosis and phenotypic changes in primary and transformed mast cells and basophils. LB reach high numbers in these steatotic cytosols, and here we propose that they could dramatically impact the transcytoplasmic signaling pathways. We compared calcium release and influx responses at the population and single cell level in normal and steatotic model mast cells. At the population level, all aspects of FcεRI-dependent calcium mobilization, as well as activation of calcium-dependent downstream signalling targets such as NFATC1 phosphorylation are suppressed. At the single cell level, we demonstrate that LB are both sources and sinks of calcium following FcεRI cross-linking. Unbiased analysis of the impact of the presence of LB on the rate of trans-cytoplasmic calcium signals suggest that LB enrichment accelerates calcium propagation, which may reflect a Bernoulli effect. LB abundance thus impacts this fundamental signalling pathway and its downstream targets. PMID:25016314
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Griciuvienė, Loreta; Paulauskas, Algimantas; Radzijevskaja, Jana; Žukauskienė, Judita; Pūraitė, Irma
2016-01-01
Abstract The raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides experienced an active introduction and acclimatization in the European part of Russia followed by its migration to and colonization in the neighboring countries. Eventually, it has spread rapidly into many European countries. N. procyonoides probably invaded Lithuania from the neighboring countries of Belarus and Latvia where the species was introduced. However, the data on genetic diversity and population structure of the raccoon dogs in the recently invaded territories are still scarce. The objectives of this study were to investigate genetic diversity of N. procyonoides in Lithuania after acclimatization, and to assess the impact of anthropogenic pressure on the formation of population structure. A total of 147 N. procyonoides individuals collected from different regions of Lithuania were genotyped using 17 microsatellite markers. The microsatellite analysis of raccoon dogs indicated high levels of genetic diversity within the population. The Bayesian clustering analysis in STRUCTURE identified 4 genetic clusters among sampled raccoon dogs that could not reveal a clear separation between subpopulations. The widespread distribution of raccoon dogs in Lithuania, high level of genetic variation observed within subpopulations, and low level of variation portioned among subpopulations suggest migration and gene flow among locations. The significant correlation between genetic and geographic distances indicated isolation that reflected the distance between locations. The fencing of highways and very intensive traffic could be barriers to gene flow between the western and eastern sampling areas of raccoon dogs. PMID:29491930
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Characterization of reward and effort mechanisms in apathy
Bonnelle, Valerie; Veromann, Kai-Riin; Burnett Heyes, Stephanie; Lo Sterzo, Elena; Manohar, Sanjay; Husain, Masud
2015-01-01
Apathy is a common but poorly understood condition with a wide societal impact observed in several brain disorders as well as, to some extent, in the normal population. Hence the need for better characterization of the underlying mechanisms. The processes by which individuals decide to attribute physical effort to obtain rewards might be particularly relevant to relate to apathy traits. Here, we designed two paradigms to assess individual differences in physical effort production and effort-based decision-making and their relation to apathy in healthy people. Apathy scores were measured using a modified version of the Lille Apathy Rating Scale, suitable for use in a non-clinical population. In the first study, apathy scores were correlated with the degree to which stake (reward on offer) and difficulty level impacts on physical effort production. Individuals with relatively high apathy traits showed an increased modulation of effort while more motivated individuals generally exerted greater force across different levels of stake. To clarify the underlying mechanisms for this behavior, we designed a second task that allows independent titration of stake and effort levels for which subjects are willing to engage in an effortful response to obtain a reward. Our results suggest that apathy traits in the normal population are related to the way reward subjectively affects the estimation of effort costs, and more particularly manifest as decreased willingness to exert effort when rewards are small, or below threshold. The tasks we introduce here may provide useful tools to further investigate apathy in clinical populations. PMID:24747776
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Correlation between measles vaccine doses: implications for the maintenance of elimination.
McKee, A; Ferrari, M J; Shea, K
2018-03-01
Measles eradication efforts have been successful at achieving elimination in many countries worldwide. Such countries actively work to maintain this elimination by continuing to improve coverage of two routine doses of measles vaccine following measles elimination. While improving measles vaccine coverage is always beneficial, we show, using a steady-state analysis of a dynamical model, that the correlation between populations receiving the first and second routine dose also has a significant impact on the population immunity achieved by a specified combination of first and second dose coverage. If the second dose is administered to people independently of whether they had the first dose, high second-dose coverage improves the proportion of the population receiving at least one dose, and will have a large effect on population immunity. If the second dose is administered only to people who have had the first dose, high second-dose coverage reduces the rate of primary vaccine failure, but does not reach people who missed the first dose; this will therefore have a relatively small effect on population immunity. When doses are administered dependently, and assuming the first dose has higher coverage, increasing the coverage of the first dose has a larger impact on population immunity than does increasing the coverage of the second. Correlation between vaccine doses has a significant impact on the level of population immunity maintained by current vaccination coverage, potentially outweighing the effects of age structure and, in some cases, recent improvements in vaccine coverage. It is therefore important to understand the correlation between vaccine doses as such correlation may have a large impact on the effectiveness of measles vaccination strategies.
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Sexual networks: measuring sexual selection in structured, polyandrous populations.
McDonald, Grant C; James, Richard; Krause, Jens; Pizzari, Tommaso
2013-03-05
Sexual selection is traditionally measured at the population level, assuming that populations lack structure. However, increasing evidence undermines this approach, indicating that intrasexual competition in natural populations often displays complex patterns of spatial and temporal structure. This complexity is due in part to the degree and mechanisms of polyandry within a population, which can influence the intensity and scale of both pre- and post-copulatory sexual competition. Attempts to measure selection at the local and global scale have been made through multi-level selection approaches. However, definitions of local scale are often based on physical proximity, providing a rather coarse measure of local competition, particularly in polyandrous populations where the local scale of pre- and post-copulatory competition may differ drastically from each other. These limitations can be solved by social network analysis, which allows us to define a unique sexual environment for each member of a population: 'local scale' competition, therefore, becomes an emergent property of a sexual network. Here, we first propose a novel quantitative approach to measure pre- and post-copulatory sexual selection, which integrates multi-level selection with information on local scale competition derived as an emergent property of networks of sexual interactions. We then use simple simulations to illustrate the ways in which polyandry can impact estimates of sexual selection. We show that for intermediate levels of polyandry, the proposed network-based approach provides substantially more accurate measures of sexual selection than the more traditional population-level approach. We argue that the increasing availability of fine-grained behavioural datasets provides exciting new opportunities to develop network approaches to study sexual selection in complex societies.
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Jorgenson, Andrew K; Clark, Brett
2013-01-01
This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region.
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Physical fitness and exercise training of individuals with mental retardation.
Fernhall, B
1993-04-01
Recent social policies have focused on reentering persons with mental retardation (MR) into the work force and the mainstream of society. However, as individuals with MR age, their rate of institutionalization greatly outweighs that of the general population as well as children with MR. Health care organizations have expressed serious concern about the impact of an aging population with disabilities, particularly the cost associated with institutionalization. Considering that cardiovascular disorders are more common in population with than without MR, and that physical fitness has been directly related to work productivity among individuals with MR, physical fitness and exercise training have important implications for this population. Yet, available data suggest that individuals with MR have low levels of physical fitness, a higher incidence of obesity, and may respond differently to exercise training than persons without MR. This paper reviews current knowledge of physical fitness status, impact of exercise testing and training, and identifies differences between populations with and without MR, with special emphasis on trends associated with aging. This review is limited to three physical fitness components: obesity, cardiovascular fitness, and muscular strength and endurance, as these components have been shown to impact health and well-being, and are related to work performance of persons with MR. Suggestions for future research are also provided.
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Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Y
2016-10-01
It has long been debated if population size is a crucial determinant of the level of culture. While empirical results are mixed, recent theoretical studies suggest that social connectedness between people may be a more important factor than the size of the entire population. These models, however, do not take into account evolutionary responses of learning strategies determining the mode of transmission and innovation and are hence not suitable for predicting the long-term implications of parameters of interest. In the present paper, to address this issue, we provide a gene-culture coevolution model, in which the microscopic learning process of each individual is explicitly described as a continuous-time stochastic process and time allocation to social and individual learning is allowed to evolve. We have found that social connectedness has a larger impact on the equilibrium level of culture than population size especially when connectedness is weak and population size is large. This result, combined with those of previous culture-only models, points to the importance of studying separate effects of population size and internal social structure to better understand spatiotemporal variation in the level of culture. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Brekke, Mette; Rekdal, Magne; Straand, Jørund
2007-06-01
To assess level of cardiovascular risk factors in a non-selected, middle-aged population. To estimate the proportion target for risk intervention according to present guidelines and according to different cut-off levels for two risk algorithms. Population survey, modelling study. The Norwegian Hordaland Health Study (HUSK) 1997-99. A total of 22 289 persons born in 1950-57. Own and relatives' cardiovascular morbidity, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment, smoking, blood pressure, cholesterol. Framingham and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithms. The European guidelines on CVD prevention in clinical practice were applied to estimate size of risk groups. Some 9.7% of men and 7.6% of women had CVD, diabetes mellitus, a high level of one specific risk factor, or received lipid-lowering or antihypertensive treatment. Applying a SCORE (60 years) cut-off level at 5% to the rest of the population selected 52.4% of men and 0.8% of women into a primary prevention group, while a cut-off level at 8% included 22.0% and 0.06% respectively. A cut-off level for the Framingham score (60 years) of 20% selected 43.6% of men and 4.7% of women, while a cut-off level of 25% selected 25.6% of men and 1.8% of women. The findings illustrate how choices regarding risk estimation highly affect the size of the target population. Modelling studies are important when preparing guidelines, to address implications for resource allocation and risk of medicalization. The population share to be targeted for primary prevention ought to be estimated, including the impact of various cut-off points for risk algorithms on the size of the risk population.
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DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2012-10-01
Floridas transportation infrastructure must continually evolve to meet the demands of its growing population. Many jurisdictions are moving toward multimodal transportation systems that utilize existing infrastructure more efficiently, providing u...
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Hawley, Dana M; Hanley, Daniel; Dhondt, André A; Lovette, Irby J
2006-01-01
The impact of founder events on levels of genetic variation in natural populations remains a topic of significant interest. Well-documented introductions provide a valuable opportunity to examine how founder events influence genetic diversity in invasive species. House finches (Carpodacus mexicanus) are passerine birds native to western North America, with the large eastern North American population derived from a small number of captive individuals released in the 1940s. Previous comparisons using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers found equivalent levels of diversity in eastern and western populations, suggesting that any genetic effects of the founder event were ameliorated by the rapid growth of the newly established population. We used an alternative marker system, 10 highly polymorphic microsatellites, to compare levels of genetic diversity between four native and five introduced house finch populations. In contrast to the AFLP comparisons, we found significantly lower allelic richness and heterozygosity in introduced populations across all loci. Three out of five introduced populations showed significant reductions in the ratio of the number of alleles to the allele size range, a within-population characteristic of recent bottlenecks. Finally, native and introduced populations showed significant pairwise differences in allele frequencies in every case, with stronger isolation by distance within the introduced than native range. Overall, our results provide compelling molecular evidence for a founder effect during the introduction of eastern house finches that reduced diversity levels at polymorphic microsatellite loci and may have contributed to the emergence of the Mycoplasma epidemic which recently swept the eastern range of this species.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brandt, Jørgen; Andersen, Mikael S.; Bønløkke, Jakob; Christensen, Jesper H.; Geels, Camilla; Hansen, Kaj M.; Hertel, Ole; Im, Ulas; Jensen, Steen S.; Ketzel, Matthias; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Plejdrup, Marlene S.; Sigsgaard, Torben
2016-04-01
A high-resolution assessment of health impacts from air pollution and related external cost has been conducted for Denmark using the integrated EVA model system. The EVA system is based on the impact-pathway methodology, where the site-specific emissions will result, via atmospheric transport and chemistry, in a concentration distribution, which together with detailed population data, is used to estimate the population-level exposure. Using exposure-response functions and economic valuations, the exposure is transformed into impacts on human health and related external costs. In this study we have used a coupling of two chemistry transport models to calculate the air pollution concentration at different domain and scales; the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) to calculate the air pollution levels in the Northern Hemisphere with a resolution down to 5.6 km x 5.6 km and the Urban Background Model (UBM) to further calculate the air pollution in Denmark at 1 km x 1 km resolution using results from DEHM as boundary conditions. Both the emission data as well as the population density has been represented in the model system with the same high resolution. Previous health impact assessments related to air pollution have been made on a lower resolution. In this study, the integrated model system, EVA, has been used to estimate the health impacts and related external cost for Denmark at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. New developments of the integrated model system will be presented as well as the development of health impacts and related external costs in Europe and Denmark over a period of 36 years (1979-2014). Acknowledgements This work was funded by: DCE - National Centre for Environment and Energy. Project: "Health impacts and external costs from air pollution in Denmark over 25 years" and NordForsk under the Nordic Programme on Health and Welfare. Project: "Understanding the link between air pollution and distribution of related health impacts and welfare in the Nordic countries (NordicWelfAir)".
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Food Security Hotspots in India under Changing Climate and Growing Populatio
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.
2015-12-01
Global climate change, unprecedented population growth, and rapid urbanization have elevated the possibility of food and water shortages in many regions across the world. The likelihood of such shortages in the future is further exacerbated by the fact that increased greenhouse forcing and rapid growth in human population will continue for at least the next several decades. These socio-environmental changes will likely put some regions under enormous economic and environmental stress by forcing them to adapt to new conditions. India with its rapidly growing population and high rates of urbanization and industrialization is one such region whose agricultural resources will be particularly vulnerable to the impact of these changes. This study collectively reviews and analyses the possible impacts of climate change, population growth and resulting land use change on the availability of food and water in the coming decades for India. By analyzing and fusing a wide variety of existing data and research on the impact of land use change, population, and climate change, on water and food resources this study develops an understanding of the broader implications of each of the changes on food security in the region. In addition, the study focuses on the need to assess and quantify the combination of such impacts at a regional level and identify food security hotspots spatially across India that will help to narrow down regions in the country which will be severely affected and need priority adaptation and mitigation measures.
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Personal exposures to PM 2.5 and their relationships with microenvironmental concentrations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lim, Soogil; Kim, Jeonghoon; Kim, Taehyun; Lee, Kiyoung; Yang, Wonho; Jun, Sangil; Yu, Seungdo
2012-02-01
Personal exposure to particulate matter of aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM 2.5) can be affected by various factors. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of activity pattern and the contribution of each microenvironment to personal PM 2.5 exposure. Technicians carried a nephelometer for PM 2.5 while engaging in scripted time location activities. The scripted activities of 10 different population groups were based on time activity patterns of the Seoul population in Korea. A total of 58 daily PM 2.5 personal exposures were available for analysis. The average PM 2.5 personal exposure was 19.8 ± 15.3 μg m -3. The average personal exposure of each population group ranged from 9.8 to 43.1 μg m -3. High peak and average concentrations were observed in restaurants and bars; such high concentrations were due to secondhand smoke and cooking with charcoal on tables. The residential indoor level of the nine microenvironments was the largest contributor to personal exposure. The contributions from residential indoor, non-residential indoor, transportation, and outdoor levels were 36.2%, 53.4%, 6.7%, and 3.7%, respectively. The contributions of microenvironments varied among population groups; these variations suggest that the impact of activity pattern on personal exposure is significant.
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Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In
2017-02-01
The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.
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18F-FDG PET/CT in breast cancer: Evidence-based recommendations in initial staging.
Caresia Aroztegui, Ana Paula; García Vicente, Ana María; Alvarez Ruiz, Soledad; Delgado Bolton, Roberto Carlos; Orcajo Rincon, Javier; Garcia Garzon, Jose Ramon; de Arcocha Torres, Maria; Garcia-Velloso, Maria Jose
2017-10-01
Current guidelines do not systematically recommend 18F-FDG PET/CT for breast cancer staging; and the recommendations and level of evidence supporting its use in different groups of patients vary among guidelines. This review summarizes the evidence about the role of 18F-FDG PET/CT in breast cancer staging and the therapeutic and prognostic impact accumulated in the last decade. Other related aspects, such as the association of metabolic information with biology and prognosis are considered and evidence-based recommendations for the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT in breast cancer staging are offered. We systematically searched MEDLINE for articles reporting studies with at least 30 patients related to clinical questions following the Problem/Population, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcome framework. We critically reviewed the selected articles and elaborated evidence tables structuring the summarized information into methodology, results, and limitations. The level of evidence and the grades of recommendation for the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT in different contexts are summarized. Level III evidence supports the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT for initial staging in patients with recently diagnosed breast cancer; the diagnostic and therapeutic impact of the 18F-FDG PET/CT findings is sufficient for a weak recommendation in this population. In patients with locally advanced breast cancer, level II evidence supports the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT for initial staging; the diagnostic and therapeutic impact of the 18F-FDG PET/CT findings is sufficient for a strong recommendation in this population. In patients with recently diagnosed breast cancer, the metabolic information from baseline 18F-FDG PET/CT is associated with tumor biology and has prognostic implications, supported by level II evidence. In conclusion, 18F-FDG PET/CT is not recommended for staging all patients with early breast cancer, although evidence of improved regional and systemic staging supports its use in locally advanced breast cancer. Baseline tumor glycolytic activity is associated with tumor biology and prognosis.
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DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.
Lhachimi, Stefan K; Nusselder, Wilma J; Smit, Henriette A; van Baal, Pieter; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Mackenbach, Johan P; Boshuizen, Hendriek C
2012-01-01
Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA). A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states) and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible) to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment), we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based on epidemiologic evidence.
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Tuberculosis in vulnerable populations in Eastern Mediterranean Region-Implications for control.
Shakoor, Sadia; Hasan, Rumina
2016-12-01
Socially and economically disadvantaged or "vulnerable" people are at high risk of tuberculosis (TB) and also contribute to active chains of TB transmission. Included in such vulnerable populations are children, women, prisoners, people living with human immunodeficiency virus, the homeless, and displaced people. The ongoing active transmission of TB among such populations is made more difficult to assess and control by difficult access, health inequities, poverty, and other chronic and debilitating health conditions at individual, domestic, and community levels. The 22 Eastern Mediterranean Region member states encompass diverse sociopolitical and socioeconomic situations with far-reaching effects on vulnerable populations in each country, thereby threatening the control of TB. Here, we examined the impact of these populations on the incidence and transmission of TB in light of these risks. Approximately 60% of the regional population comprises children and adolescents ⩽19years of age, increasing the population at risk. Additionally, up to 11% of the population suffers from mental- or substance-abuse disorders, while >50% of the world refugee populations live in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. TB control requires a strategic approach at the country level to access these vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2016.
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Assessment of public health impact of work-related asthma.
Jaakkola, Maritta S; Jaakkola, Jouni J K
2012-03-05
Asthma is among the most common chronic diseases in working-aged populations and occupational exposures are important causal agents. Our aims were to evaluate the best methods to assess occurrence, public health impact, and burden to society related to occupational or work-related asthma and to achieve comparable estimates for different populations. We addressed three central questions: 1: What is the best method to assess the occurrence of occupational asthma? We evaluated: 1) assessment of the occurrence of occupational asthma per se, and 2) assessment of adult-onset asthma and the population attributable fractions due to specific occupational exposures. 2: What are the best methods to assess public health impact and burden to society related to occupational or work-related asthma? We evaluated methods based on assessment of excess burden of disease due to specific occupational exposures. 3: How to achieve comparable estimates for different populations? We evaluated comparability of estimates of occurrence and burden attributable to occupational asthma based on different methods. Assessment of the occurrence of occupational asthma per se can be used in countries with good coverage of the identification system for occupational asthma, i.e. countries with well-functioning occupational health services. Assessment based on adult-onset asthma and population attributable fractions due to specific occupational exposures is a good approach to estimate the occurrence of occupational asthma at the population level. For assessment of public health impact from work-related asthma we recommend assessing excess burden of disease due to specific occupational exposures, including excess incidence of asthma complemented by an assessment of disability from it. International comparability of estimates can be best achieved by methods based on population attributable fractions. Public health impact assessment for occupational asthma is central in prevention and health policy planning and could be improved by purposeful development of methods for assessing health benefits from preventive actions. Registry-based methods are suitable for evaluating time-trends of occurrence at a given population but for international comparisons they face serious limitations. Assessment of excess burden of disease due to specific occupational exposure is a useful measure, when there is valid information on population exposure and attributable fractions.
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Murphy, Shannon M E; Hough, Douglas E; Sylvia, Martha L; Dunbar, Linda J; Frick, Kevin D
2018-02-08
To illustrate the impact of key quasi-experimental design elements on cost savings measurement for population health management (PHM) programs. Population health management program records and Medicaid claims and enrollment data from December 2011 through March 2016. The study uses a difference-in-difference design to compare changes in cost and utilization outcomes between program participants and propensity score-matched nonparticipants. Comparisons of measured savings are made based on (1) stable versus dynamic population enrollment and (2) all eligible versus enrolled-only participant definitions. Options for the operationalization of time are also discussed. Individual-level Medicaid administrative and claims data and PHM program records are used to match study groups on baseline risk factors and assess changes in costs and utilization. Savings estimates are statistically similar but smaller in magnitude when eliminating variability based on duration of population enrollment and when evaluating program impact on the entire target population. Measurement in calendar time, when possible, simplifies interpretability. Program evaluation design elements, including population stability and participant definitions, can influence the estimated magnitude of program savings for the payer and should be considered carefully. Time specifications can also affect interpretability and usefulness. © Health Research and Educational Trust.
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Modelling the effects of stranding on the Atlantic salmon population in the Dale River, Norway.
Sauterleute, Julian F; Hedger, Richard D; Hauer, Christoph; Pulg, Ulrich; Skoglund, Helge; Sundt-Hansen, Line E; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Ugedal, Ola
2016-12-15
Rapid dewatering in rivers as a consequence of hydropower operations may cause stranding of juvenile fish and have a negative impact on fish populations. We implemented stranding into an Atlantic salmon population model in order to evaluate long-term effects on the population in the Dale River, Western Norway. Furthermore, we assessed the sensitivity of the stranding model to dewatered area in comparison to biological parameters, and compared different methods for calculating wetted area, the main abiotic input parameter to the population model. Five scenarios were simulated dependent on fish life-stage, season and light level. Our simulation results showed largest negative effect on the population abundance for hydropeaking during winter daylight. Salmon smolt production had highest sensitivity to the stranding mortality of older juvenile fish, suggesting that stranding of fish at these life-stages is likely to have greater population impacts than that of earlier life-stages. Downstream retention effects on the ramping velocity were found to be negligible in the stranding model, but are suggested to be important in the context of mitigation measure design. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Rodríguez, Jorge M; Muñoz, Edgar; Fandiño-Losada, Andrés; Gutiérrez, Maria I
2006-01-01
Evaluating the "It's better if we talk" communication strategy for preventing violence and promoting pacific coexistence in Cali, Colombia. The strategy was developed through two intervention components in Cali between August 1996 and September 1998: the population (using the mass media) and the community (using Commune 13 and 20's local media). Post-intervention measurement was made in 2000 to determine the strategy's impact and compared to PAHO's 1996 ACTIVA base-line study carried out in eight Latin-American cities (including Cali) and Spain. 3 types of analysis were used: descriptive-comparative between the periods and bivariate and multivariate analysis using attitudes and abilities as dependent variables. Abilities improved at population level, although they did not change in the communes taking part. Favourable changes occurred in attitudes in community areas, though remaining equal at population level. The mechanisms for solving conflicts displayed an improvement, suggesting increased tolerance from 1996 to 2000 in older men from Commune 20 and the rest of Cali. "It's better if we talk" had little impact on the community areas taking part; nevertheless, the universal intervention had a positive impact on the rest of Cali. Interdisciplinary, ongoing multi-sector promotion and prevention must be embarked on for approaching the multifactor problem of violence in Latin-American countries involving individuals and their family, community and institutional-governmental contexts.
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Robinson, Mark; Thorpe, Rachel; Beeston, Clare; McCartney, Gerry
2013-01-01
Aims: To assess the validity and reliability of using alcohol retail sales data to measure and monitor population levels of alcohol consumption. Methods: Potential sources of bias that could lead to under- or overestimation of population alcohol consumption based on alcohol retail sales data were identified and, where possible, quantified. This enabled an assessment of the potential impact of each bias on alcohol consumption estimates in Scotland. Results: Overall, considering all the possible sources of overestimation and underestimation, and taking into account the potential for sampling variability to impact on the results, the range of uncertainty of consumption during 2010 was from an overestimate of 0.3 l to an underestimate of 2.4 l of pure alcohol per adult. This excludes the impacts of alcohol stockpiling and alcohol sold through outlets not included in the sampling frame. On balance, there is therefore far greater scope for alcohol retail sales data to be underestimating per adult alcohol consumption in Scotland than there is for overestimation. Conclusion: Alcohol retail sales data offer a robust source of data for monitoring per adult alcohol consumption in Scotland. Consideration of the sources of bias and a comprehensive understanding of data collection methods are essential for using sales data to monitor trends in alcohol consumption. PMID:22926649
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S.
New tools are employed to develop an electricity demand map for the southeastern United States at neighborhood resolution to serve as a baseline from which to project increases in electricity demand due to a rise in global and local temperature and to population shifts motivated by increases in extreme weather events due to climate change. We find that electricity demand increases due to temperature rise over the next 40 years have a much smaller impact than those due to large population influx. In addition, we find evidence that some, sections of the national electrical grid are more adaptable to thesemore » population shifts and changing demand than others are; and that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for planning at the urban level.« less
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Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S.; ...
2016-07-25
New tools are employed to develop an electricity demand map for the southeastern United States at neighborhood resolution to serve as a baseline from which to project increases in electricity demand due to a rise in global and local temperature and to population shifts motivated by increases in extreme weather events due to climate change. We find that electricity demand increases due to temperature rise over the next 40 years have a much smaller impact than those due to large population influx. In addition, we find evidence that some, sections of the national electrical grid are more adaptable to thesemore » population shifts and changing demand than others are; and that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for planning at the urban level.« less
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Evolutionary change during experimental ocean acidification
Pespeni, Melissa H.; Sanford, Eric; Gaylord, Brian; Hill, Tessa M.; Hosfelt, Jessica D.; Jaris, Hannah K.; LaVigne, Michèle; Lenz, Elizabeth A.; Russell, Ann D.; Young, Megan K.; Palumbi, Stephen R.
2013-01-01
Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) conditions are driving unprecedented changes in seawater chemistry, resulting in reduced pH and carbonate ion concentrations in the Earth’s oceans. This ocean acidification has negative but variable impacts on individual performance in many marine species. However, little is known about the adaptive capacity of species to respond to an acidified ocean, and, as a result, predictions regarding future ecosystem responses remain incomplete. Here we demonstrate that ocean acidification generates striking patterns of genome-wide selection in purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) cultured under different CO2 levels. We examined genetic change at 19,493 loci in larvae from seven adult populations cultured under realistic future CO2 levels. Although larval development and morphology showed little response to elevated CO2, we found substantial allelic change in 40 functional classes of proteins involving hundreds of loci. Pronounced genetic changes, including excess amino acid replacements, were detected in all populations and occurred in genes for biomineralization, lipid metabolism, and ion homeostasis—gene classes that build skeletons and interact in pH regulation. Such genetic change represents a neglected and important impact of ocean acidification that may influence populations that show few outward signs of response to acidification. Our results demonstrate the capacity for rapid evolution in the face of ocean acidification and show that standing genetic variation could be a reservoir of resilience to climate change in this coastal upwelling ecosystem. However, effective response to strong natural selection demands large population sizes and may be limited in species impacted by other environmental stressors. PMID:23569232
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Modelling the Health Impact of an English Sugary Drinks Duty at National and Local Levels
Collins, Brendan; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin; Timpson, Hannah; Razzaq, Abdul; Cheater, Sylvia; Ireland, Robin; Bromley, Helen
2015-01-01
Background Increasing evidence associates excess refined sugar intakes with obesity, Type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Worryingly, the estimated volume of sugary drinks purchased in the UK has more than doubled between 1975 and 2007, from 510ml to 1140ml per person per week. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of a duty on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) at a local level in England, hypothesising that a duty could reduce obesity and related diseases. Methods and Findings We modelled the potential impact of a 20% sugary drinks duty on local authorities in England between 2010 and 2030. We synthesised data obtained from the British National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS), drinks manufacturers, Office for National Statistics, and from previous studies. This produced a modelled population of 41 million adults in 326 lower tier local authorities in England. This analysis suggests that a 20% SSB duty could result in approximately 2,400 fewer diabetes cases, 1,700 fewer stroke and coronary heart disease cases, 400 fewer cancer cases, and gain some 41,000 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) per year across England. The duty might have the biggest impact in urban areas with young populations. Conclusions This study adds to the growing body of evidence suggesting health benefits for a duty on sugary drinks. It might also usefully provide results at an area level to inform local price interventions in England. PMID:26121677
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Outside the Continental United States International Travel and Contagion Impact Quick Look Tool
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Corley, Courtney D.; Lancaster, Mary J.; Brigantic, Robert T.
2012-11-09
ABSTRACT This paper describes a tool that will allow public health analysts to estimate infectious disease risk at the country level as a function of different international transportation modes. The prototype focuses on a cholera epidemic originating within Latin America or the Caribbean, but it can be expanded to consider other pathogens as well. This effort leverages previous work in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop the International Travel to Community Impact (IT-CI) model, which analyzes and assesses potential international disease outbreaks then estimates the associated impacts to U.S. communities and the nation as amore » whole and orient it for use Outside the Continental United States (OCONUS). For brevity, we refer to this refined model as OIT-CI. First, we developed an operationalized meta-population spatial cholera model for Latin America and the Caribbean at the secondary administrative-level boundary. Secondly, we developed a robust function of human airline critical to approximating mixing patterns in the meta- population model. In the prototype version currently presented here, OIT-CI models a cholera epidemic originating in a Latin American or Caribbean country and spreading via airline transportation routes. Disease spread is modeled at the country level using a patch model with a connectivity function based on demographic, geospatial, and human transportation data. We have also identified data to estimate the water and health-related infrastructure capabilities of each country to include this potential impact on disease transmission.« less
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Fauvelot, C; Cleary, D F R; Menken, S B J
2006-07-01
We investigated the short-term impact of disturbance on genetic diversity and structure of the tropical butterfly Drupadia theda Felder (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). Populations were sampled from five landscapes in East Kalimantan (Borneo, Indonesia) which were differentially disturbed by selective logging and the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced drought and fires. Sampling occurred before (in 1997) and after the forest fires (in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2004). Drupadia theda populations underwent serious population size reductions following the 1997/1998 ENSO event. For a total of 208 individuals, we sequenced a 509-bp segment of mtDNA containing the control region plus the 5' end of the 12S rDNA gene. Haplotype diversity in D. theda populations ranged from 0.468 to 0.953. Just after the 1997/1998 ENSO event, number of recorded individuals and genetic diversity were very low in D. theda populations sampled in the two severely burned areas and in a small pristine forest fragment that was surrounded by burned forest and thereby affected by drought. Interestingly, higher levels of genetic diversity were observed in logged forest compared to proximate pristine forest. After 1998, the genetic composition within the three ENSO-disturbed areas diverged. In the twice-burned forest, the genetic diversity in 1999 already approached pre-fire levels, while it remained nearly unchanged in proximate once-burned forest. Our data suggest that the 1997/1998 ENSO-induced drought and fires caused massive reductions in the genetic diversity of D. theda and that population recoveries were linked to their geographical position relative to patches of unburned forest (and thus to source populations).
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Climate Change Science, Impacts, Solutions - A Senior Science Course for Post-Secondary Students
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Byrne, J. M.; Little, L. J.; Barnes, C. C.; Mirmasoudi, S.; Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Reiger, C.; Rodriguez Bueno, R. A.
2015-12-01
The role of humanity in warming the global climate is well defined. The research community has predicted and documented many of the early impacts of climate change. The research literature has extensive assessments of future impacts on environment, cities, agriculture, human health, infrastructure, social and political changes, and the risks of military conflict. Society is facing massive infrastructure redevelopment, protection and possible abandonment due to increasing weather extremes. We have reached the point where science consensus is obvious and the population over much of the developed and developing world understands the urgency - humanity is changing the climate. The challenge is helping people help themselves. People understand there are consequences - they want to know how to minimize those consequences, and how to adapt to minimize the impacts. There is a dire need for a senior level course that addresses the key issues across disciplines. This course should cover a range of topics across many disciplinary boundaries, including: an introduction to the science, politics, health and well-being challenges of climate change; likely changes to personal and community lifestyles; consumption of energy and other resources. Population migration due to climate change impacts is a critical topic. Most important, the course must address the solutions to climate change. The population is demanding the power to address this massive challenge. This course will provide a multimedia curriculum on the impacts and solutions to our climate change dilemma.
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Global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR), will have profound effects on estuarine fish, shellfish, and wildlife populations and their habitats. To develop an understanding of these potential impacts, the U.S. EPA at Newport, Oregon is participating in a joint researc...
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Testing theories to explore the drivers of cities' atmospheric emissions.
Lankao, Patricia Romero; Tribbia, John L; Nychka, Doug
2009-06-01
Despite a growing body of evidence demonstrating the importance of cities as sources of many local, regional, and global impacts on the atmosphere, ecosystems, and human populations, most theories on the relationship between society and the environment have focused on the global or national level. A variety of theories exist on human-environment interactions; for example, ecological modernization, urban transitions, and human ecology. However, with the exception of urban transitions, these theories have been mainly concerned with nation states and have ignored the subnational and local (city) levels. This article aims at filling this gap by employing ordinary least squares regression to examine these theories at the city level using the STIRPAT formula. It finds that with the exception of population (which shows an unstable relationship with the impacts indicators applied in the analysis) a remarkable level of variation exists in the importance of drivers across the three exercises. This led us to conclude that urban atmospheric pollutants result from diverse activities (e.g., transportation, industrial), are formed through different processes (vehicle combustion, biomass burning), have a residence time ranging from hours to years, and are the outcome of diverse sets of societal and environmental drivers.
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Healthier School Environment Leads to Decreases in Childhood Obesity: The Kearney Nebraska Story.
Heelan, Kate A; Bartee, R Todd; Nihiser, Allison; Sherry, Bettylou
2015-10-01
Schools play a role in addressing childhood obesity by implementing healthy eating and physical activity strategies. The primary aim of this case study was to describe prevalence of overweight and obesity among elementary school students in a rural Mid-western community between 2006 and 2012. The secondary aim was to use a novel approach called "population dose" to retrospectively evaluate the impact dose of each strategy implemented and its estimated potential population level impact on changes in overweight and obesity. Weight and height were directly measured annually beginning in January 2006 to assess weight status, using BMI (kg/m(2)), for all kindergarten to fifth-grade students (N ≈ 2400 per year). Multiple evidence-based strategies were implemented in nine schools to increase physical activity and healthy eating behaviors. BMI reporting and revised school meal programs were implemented districtwide. Comprehensive school physical activity programs, school food environment, and supportive/promotional strategies were implemented at individual schools. The absolute change in prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥95th percentile) decreased from 16.4% to 13.9%, indicating a 15.2% relative change in prevalence of obesity in 6 years. There was an inverse relationship between the number of strategies implemented and prevalence of overweight and obesity over time. District and school-level approaches have the potential to impact childhood obesity. Schools can successfully implement strategies to address overweight and obesity, but the extent of implementation between schools may vary. Population dose analysis can be used to estimate impact of clusters of strategies to address overweight/obesity.
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Auster, P.J.; Malatesta, R.J.; Langton, R.W.; Watling, Les; Valentine, P.C.; Donaldson, C.L.S.; Langton, E.W.; Shepard, A.N.; Babb, Ivar G.
1996-01-01
Fishing gear alters seafloor habitats, but the extent of these alterations, and their effects, have not been quantified extensively in the northwest Atlantic. Understanding the extent of these impacts, and their effects on populations of living marine resources, is needed to properly manage current and future levels of fishing effort and fishing power. For example, the entire U.S. side of the Gulf of Maine was impacted annually by mobile fishing gear between 1984 and 1990, based on calculations of area swept by trawl and dredge gear. Georges Bank was impacted three to nearly four times annually during the same period. Studies at three sites in the Gulf of Maine (off Swans Island, Jeffreys Bank, and Stellwagen Bank) showed that mobile fishing gear altered the physical structure (=complexity) of benthic habitats. Complexity was reduced by direct removal of biogenic (e.g., sponges, hydrozoans, bryozoans, amphipod tubes, holothurians, shell aggregates) and sedimentary (e.g., sand waves, depressions) structures. Also, removal of organisms that create structures (e.g., crabs, scallops) indirectly reduced complexity. Reductions in habitat complexity may lead to increased predation on juveniles of harvested species and ultimately recruitment to the harvestable stock. Because of a lack of reference sites, where use of mobile fishing is prohibited, no empirical studies have yet been conducted on a scale that could demonstrate population level effects of habitat-management options. If marine fisheries management is to evolve toward an ecosystem or habitat management approach, experiments are required on the effects of habitat change, both anthropogenic and natural.
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Gillis, Patricia L; McInnis, Rodney; Salerno, Joseph; de Solla, Shane R; Servos, Mark R; Leonard, Erin M
2017-01-01
The substantial increase in urbanization worldwide has resulted in higher emissions of wastewater to riverine systems near urban centers, which often impairs aquatic populations and communities. This study examined the effect of urbanization on freshwater mussel populations, including Species at Risk in two rivers receiving wastewater. The influence of anthropogenic activities was assessed in a watershed in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin, one that historically supported one of the most diverse mussel faunas in Canada. In the Grand River (ON), four sites along a 60km reach spanning from an upstream reference site to an urban-impacted downstream area were examined. In the Speed River, mussel populations at six sites along a 10km reach, selected to bracket specific anthropogenic inputs and structures were assessed. A semi-quantitative visual search method revealed that catch per unit effort in the Grand River declined by >60% from the upstream reference site to the area downstream of an urban center. The size (length) frequency distribution of the most abundant species, Lasmigona costata, was significantly (p≤0.008) different upstream of the majority of urban inputs (45-130mm) compared to downstream of the cities (85-115mm). In the Speed River, impoundments and wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) reduced both the diversity and catch per effort. Most striking were 84 and 95% changes in the number of mussels found on either side of two impoundments, and a 98% drop in mussels immediately downstream of a WWTP outfall. These population level effects of decreased abundance and underrepresentation of smaller mussels downstream of the urban area correspond to previously documented impacts at the biochemical and whole organism level of biological organization in wild mussels at this location. Our results demonstrate that poor water quality and physical barriers in urban environments continue to impair susceptible populations and communities of aquatic animals. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Impact of trends in resources, environment and development on demographic prospects.
Keyfitz, N
1984-01-01
This paper addresses the impact of trends in resources, environment and development on demographic prospects by investigating whether ecological considerations can improve the accuracy of population projections. It identifies the degree to which population is resources-determined. The basic classic relationship that resources determine population is increasingly inapplicable as the level of technology rises and institutions are formed. The major defect in attmepts to relate population directly to land and energy flow is that they suppose all other factors remain constant. If, however, the increase of population on the fixed land itself pushes technology, and that in turn makes it possible for a larger population to live on the same land, the attempt to express population as a pure function of land is entirely frustrated. Given a challenge that is severe but not overwhelming, a natural environment that is difficult but not impossible, plus a culture that builds responsiveness into its children in each generation, the inert adjustment of population numbers to food supplies seems to give way to the active adjustment of food supplies to population. Those who need the most because of their poverty are the ones who advance the least. Government is another intermediate agent between the environment that would limit population and the population itself. It acts as an agent of adaptation of population to land. The emergence of the world grain market, which has detached individuals from dependence on their local ecological base, has lifted the resource constraint. A method to improve the accuracy of population projections is proposed, based on projecting the condition of resources and the environment, followed by the intermediate variables of technology and institutions for a given future time. Population projection for each year to that date would be done by interpolation, rather than by extrapolation. Birth control, the effect of urbanization and the impact of development on population are examined.
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Merrick, Alistair D; Grieve, Alan; Cogan, Nicola
2017-10-01
Despite increased risk of experiencing challenging behaviour, psychological impacts on community and residential staff supporting adults with autistic spectrum conditions are under-explored. Studies examining related roles indicate protective psychological factors may help maintain staff well-being. This study investigated relationships between motivational orientation (eudaimonic or hedonic), challenging behaviour frequency and type (physical, verbal or self-injurious) and psychological impacts (anxiety, depression and life satisfaction). Participants (N = 99) were recruited from six organisations providing autism-specific adult services within Scotland. A series of binary logistic regressions demonstrated weekly challenging behaviour exposure (compared to monthly or daily) significantly increased the likelihood of anxiety caseness. Increased eudaimonic motivation significantly reduced the likelihood of anxiety caseness while also predicting higher life satisfaction. Furthermore, having high levels of eudaimonic motivation appeared to moderate the impact of weekly challenging behaviour exposure on anxiety. No motivational orientation or challenging behaviour factor significantly predicted depression. This sample also demonstrated higher anxiety, lower depression and equivalent life satisfaction levels compared with general population norms. The results highlight the need for considering staff's motivational orientations, their frequency of exposure to challenging behaviour, and both positive and negative psychological outcomes, if seeking to accurately quantify or improve well-being in this staff population.
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How good are indirect tests at detecting recombination in human mtDNA?
White, Daniel James; Bryant, David; Gemmell, Neil John
2013-07-08
Empirical proof of human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) recombination in somatic tissues was obtained in 2004; however, a lack of irrefutable evidence exists for recombination in human mtDNA at the population level. Our inability to demonstrate convincingly a signal of recombination in population data sets of human mtDNA sequence may be due, in part, to the ineffectiveness of current indirect tests. Previously, we tested some well-established indirect tests of recombination (linkage disequilibrium vs. distance using D' and r(2), Homoplasy Test, Pairwise Homoplasy Index, Neighborhood Similarity Score, and Max χ(2)) on sequence data derived from the only empirically confirmed case of human mtDNA recombination thus far and demonstrated that some methods were unable to detect recombination. Here, we assess the performance of these six well-established tests and explore what characteristics specific to human mtDNA sequence may affect their efficacy by simulating sequence under various parameters with levels of recombination (ρ) that vary around an empirically derived estimate for human mtDNA (population parameter ρ = 5.492). No test performed infallibly under any of our scenarios, and error rates varied across tests, whereas detection rates increased substantially with ρ values > 5.492. Under a model of evolution that incorporates parameters specific to human mtDNA, including rate heterogeneity, population expansion, and ρ = 5.492, successful detection rates are limited to a range of 7-70% across tests with an acceptable level of false-positive results: the neighborhood similarity score incompatibility test performed best overall under these parameters. Population growth seems to have the greatest impact on recombination detection probabilities across all models tested, likely due to its impact on sequence diversity. The implications of our findings on our current understanding of mtDNA recombination in humans are discussed.
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How Good Are Indirect Tests at Detecting Recombination in Human mtDNA?
White, Daniel James; Bryant, David; Gemmell, Neil John
2013-01-01
Empirical proof of human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) recombination in somatic tissues was obtained in 2004; however, a lack of irrefutable evidence exists for recombination in human mtDNA at the population level. Our inability to demonstrate convincingly a signal of recombination in population data sets of human mtDNA sequence may be due, in part, to the ineffectiveness of current indirect tests. Previously, we tested some well-established indirect tests of recombination (linkage disequilibrium vs. distance using D′ and r2, Homoplasy Test, Pairwise Homoplasy Index, Neighborhood Similarity Score, and Max χ2) on sequence data derived from the only empirically confirmed case of human mtDNA recombination thus far and demonstrated that some methods were unable to detect recombination. Here, we assess the performance of these six well-established tests and explore what characteristics specific to human mtDNA sequence may affect their efficacy by simulating sequence under various parameters with levels of recombination (ρ) that vary around an empirically derived estimate for human mtDNA (population parameter ρ = 5.492). No test performed infallibly under any of our scenarios, and error rates varied across tests, whereas detection rates increased substantially with ρ values > 5.492. Under a model of evolution that incorporates parameters specific to human mtDNA, including rate heterogeneity, population expansion, and ρ = 5.492, successful detection rates are limited to a range of 7−70% across tests with an acceptable level of false-positive results: the neighborhood similarity score incompatibility test performed best overall under these parameters. Population growth seems to have the greatest impact on recombination detection probabilities across all models tested, likely due to its impact on sequence diversity. The implications of our findings on our current understanding of mtDNA recombination in humans are discussed. PMID:23665874
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The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Senarath, S. U.
2005-12-01
Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous, distributed, and integrated surface-water and ground-water model. It can simulate one-dimensional canal/stream flow and two-dimensional overland and groundwater flow in arbitrarily shaped areas using a variable triangular mesh. The overland and groundwater flow components are fully coupled in the RSM for a more realistic representation of runoff generation.
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Kabaria, Caroline W; Gilbert, Marius; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine
2017-01-26
Although malaria has been traditionally regarded as less of a problem in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas, the risk of malaria infection continues to exist in densely populated, urban areas of Africa. Despite the recognition that urbanization influences the epidemiology of malaria, there is little consensus on urbanization relevant for malaria parasite mapping. Previous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and malaria transmission have used products defining urbanization at global/continental scales developed in the early 2000s, that overestimate actual urban extents while the population estimates are over 15 years old and estimated at administrative unit level. This study sought to discriminate an urbanization definition that is most relevant for malaria parasite mapping using individual level malaria infection data obtained from nationally representative household-based surveys. Boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to determine the effect of urbanization on malaria transmission and if this effect varied with urbanization definition. In addition, the most recent high resolution population distribution data was used to determine whether population density had significant effect on malaria parasite prevalence and if so, could population density replace urban classifications in modelling malaria transmission patterns. The risk of malaria infection was shown to decline from rural areas through peri-urban settlements to urban central areas. Population density was found to be an important predictor of malaria risk. The final boosted regression trees (BRT) model with urbanization and population density gave the best model fit (Tukey test p value <0.05) compared to the models with urbanization only. Given the challenges in uniformly classifying urban areas across different countries, population density provides a reliable metric to adjust for the patterns of malaria risk in densely populated urban areas. Future malaria risk models can, therefore, be improved by including both population density and urbanization which have both been shown to have significant impact on malaria risk in this study.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nugraha, Ucu
2017-06-01
Village is the level under the sub-district level in the governmental system in a region where the information system of population data service is majority provided in a manual system. However, such systems frequently lead to invalid data in addition to the available data that does not correspond to the facts as the impact of frequent errors in the process of data collection related to population including the data of the elderly and the process of data transfer. Similarly, the data correspondences such as death certificate, birth certificate, a certificate of domicile change, and so forth, have their own problems. Data archives are frequently non-systematic because they are not organized properly or not stored in a database. Nevertheless, information service system for population census at this level can assist government agencies, especially in the management of population census at the village level. A designed system can make the process of a population census easier. It is initiated by the submission of population letter by each citizen who comes to the village administrative office. Population census information system based on client-server at Bagolo Village was designed in effective and non-complicated workflow and interface design. By using the client-server as the basis, the data will be stored centrally on the server, so it can reduce data duplication and data loss. Therefore, when the local governments require data information related to the population data of a village, they can obtain it easily without the need to collect the data directly at the respective village.
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Psychological and health impact of working with victims of sex trafficking.
Kliner, Merav; Stroud, Laura
2012-01-01
The UK is a major destination country for trafficking for sexual exploitation, and so increasing numbers of victims of trafficking are managed within health and social services. This study aims to assess the psychological and physical impact on health and social care staff working with an identified sex-trafficked population in a Northern City within England and identify methods to assist staff to manage this complex population. This research is a qualitative study of 12 members of health and social care staff through semi-structured interviews. The subjects were identified using purposive sampling, and data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Staff found working with sex-trafficked populations more difficult than with other vulnerable groups. They frequently described burnout and other adverse effects on their psychological and physical health. In general, staff felt undersupported and undertrained by their organizations. This led to concerns about the quality and sustainability of the service. Working with victims of sex trafficking significantly impacts on the physical and psychological health of staff. Staff working with such vulnerable groups require training and high levels of support to ensure that they are not adversely affected by their work and to ensure that high quality services are maintained. Practices to promote occupational health must be instilled within workplace policy and the organizational culture to limit the impact on psychological and physical health in staff working with vulnerable populations.
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Population ageing: what should we worry about?
Turner, Adair
2009-01-01
Approximately half the world's population now has replacement-level fertility or below. The UK experience in accommodating to a changing dependency ratio provides some generalizable insights. A mechanistic approach assuming a fixed retirement age and a need to raise fertility or increase immigration in order to maintain pensions at a fixed proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP) is overstated and wrong. It needs to be replaced by a welfare optimizing model, which takes into account the increasing years of healthy life, a slow rise in the pensionable age, capital inheritance and wider welfare considerations of population density that are not reflected in GDP measures. A combined replacement ratio (CRR) is suggested for developed countries combining the impact of the fertility rate and immigration rate. A CRR above 2 implies continued population growth. The current UK CRR of 2.48 is higher than needed for pension reasons, and it is suggested that it exceeds the welfare maximizing level. PMID:19770152
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Young, Jennifer; Welin, Elizabeth; Braeutigam, Carina; Gilger, Elizabeth; Lane, Adam; Salloum, Ralph
2018-05-04
Pediatric cancer patients have a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency. Children and young adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia are at high risk for associated poor bone outcomes due to contributing effects of chemotherapy and supportive care. Evidence-based vitamin D guidelines are lacking in this population. This is a retrospective study following the implementation of an institutional guideline for standardized monitoring and supplementing vitamin D based on 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and patient age. Goal 25-hydroxyvitamin D level was defined as ≥30 ng/mL and levels were checked every 3 months. Over a period of 22 months, 69 patients (median age, 6.7 y) were included. At diagnosis, 42 patients (60.8%) were insufficient. Among insufficient patients at diagnosis, 83.3% became sufficient at first repeat level following supplementation. At completion of the study 95.6% of patients were sufficient. Insufficiency was more common in winter than summer at baseline (74.3% vs. 47.1%, P=0.03), though the impact of seasonality was overcome following the algorithm. Throughout the study 4 patients had supratherapeutic but nontoxic levels. Vitamin D replacement guidelines implemented in the pediatric and young adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia population markedly increased the percentage of vitamin D sufficient patients in a short period of time.
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Alsallaq, Ramzi A.; Baeten, Jared M.; Celum, Connie L.; Hughes, James P.; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Barnabas, Ruanne V.; Hallett, Timothy B.
2013-01-01
Objectives Despite demonstrating only partial efficacy in preventing new infections, available HIV prevention interventions could offer a powerful strategy when combined. In anticipation of combination HIV prevention programs and research studies we estimated the population-level impact of combining effective scalable interventions at high population coverage, determined the factors that influence this impact, and estimated the synergy between the components. Methods We used a mathematical model to investigate the effect on HIV incidence of a combination HIV prevention intervention comprised of high coverage of HIV testing and counselling, risk reduction following HIV diagnosis, male circumcision for HIV-uninfected men, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected persons. The model was calibrated to data for KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV prevalence is approximately 23%. Results Compared to current levels of HIV testing, circumcision, and ART, the combined intervention with ART initiation according to current guidelines could reduce HIV incidence by 47%, from 2.3 new infections per 100 person-years (pyar) to 1.2 per 100 pyar within 4 years and by almost 60%, to 1 per 100 pyar, after 25 years. Short-term impact is driven primarily by uptake of testing and reductions in risk behaviour following testing while long-term effects are driven by periodic HIV testing and retention in ART programs. If the combination prevention program incorporated HIV treatment upon diagnosis, incidence could be reduced by 63% after 4 years and by 76% (to about 0.5 per 100 pyar) after 15 years. The full impact of the combination interventions accrues over 10–15 years. Synergy is demonstrated between the intervention components. Conclusion High coverage combination of evidence-based strategies could generate substantial reductions in population HIV incidence in an African generalized HIV epidemic setting. The full impact could be underestimated by the short assessment duration of typical evaluations. PMID:23372738
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The nature of cumulative impacts on biotic diversity of wetland vertebrates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harris, Larry D.
1988-09-01
There is no longer any doubt that cumulative impacts have important effects on wetland vertebrates. Interactions of species diversity and community structure produce a complex pattern in which environmental impacts can play a highly significant role. Various examples show how wetlands maintain the biotic diversity within and among vertebrate populations, and some of the ways that environmental perturbations can interact to reduce this diversity. The trophic and habitat pyramids are useful organizing concepts. Habitat fragmentation can have severe effects at all levels, reducing the usable range of the larger habitat generalists while threatening the genetic integrity of small, isolated populations. The complexity of trophic interactions, and the propensity, or necessity, of vertebrates to switch from one food source to another—something we know little about—makes using food chain support as a variable for predicting environmental impacts very questionable. Historical instances illustrate the effects of the accumulation of impacts on vertebrates. At present it is nearly impossible to predict the result of three or more different kinds of perturbations, although long-range effects can be observed. One case in point is waterfowl; while their ingestion of lead shot, harvesting by hunters during migration, and loss of habitat have caused waterfowl populations to decline, the proportional responsibility of these factors has not been determined. Further examples show multiplicative effects of similar actions, effects with long time lags, diffuse processes in the landscape that may have concentrated effects on a component subsystem, and a variety of other interactions of increasing complexity. Not only is more information needed at all levels; impacts must be assessed on a landscape or regional scale to produce informed management decisions. I conclude that a system of replicate wetland reserves that are allowed to interact naturally with the surrounding landscape will be more effective in preserving biotic diversity than isolated sanctuaries.
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Faisal, Islam M; Parveen, Saila
2004-10-01
Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.
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Abney, Mark R; Ruberson, John R; Herzog, Gary A; Kring, Timothy J; Steinkraus, Donald C; Roberts, Phillip M
2008-02-01
The impact of natural enemies on cotton aphid, Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae), populations in cotton, Gossypium hirsutum L., production systems in the southeastern United States was evaluated over 3 yr in irrigated commercial cotton fields. Fungal epizootics caused by the entomopathogen Neozygites fresenii (Nowakowski) Batko reduced aphid numbers to subthreshold levels in 1999, 2000, and 2001 and occurred consistently in early to mid-July in all 3 yr. Scymnus spp. were the most abundant aphidophagous predators, although other coccinellid species and generalist predators such as spiders, fire ants, heteropterans, and neuropterans also were present. Studies using arthropod exclusion cages demonstrated little impact of predators or parasitoids on aphid populations before fungal epizootics. Arthropod natural enemies were most abundant after epizootics and may have suppressed aphid populations late in the season. Seed cotton yield, and lint quality were not affected by aphicide applications in any year of the study. Implications of these findings for aphid management in the southeastern United States are discussed.
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Diffendorfer, James E.; Beston, Julie A.; Merrill, Matthew; Stanton, Jessica C.; Corum, Margo D.; Loss, Scott R.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Erickson, Richard A.; Heist, Kevin W.
2016-01-01
For this study, a methodology was developed for assessing impacts of wind energy generation on populations of birds and bats at regional to national scales. The approach combines existing methods in applied ecology for prioritizing species in terms of their potential risk from wind energy facilities and estimating impacts of fatalities on population status and trend caused by collisions with wind energy infrastructure. Methods include a qualitative prioritization approach, demographic models, and potential biological removal. The approach can be used to prioritize species in need of more thorough study as well as to identify species with minimal risk. However, the components of this methodology require simplifying assumptions and the data required may be unavailable or of poor quality for some species. These issues should be carefully considered before using the methodology. The approach will increase in value as more data become available and will broaden the understanding of anthropogenic sources of mortality on bird and bat populations.
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Li, Jiatong; Dou, Dongwei; Li, Ping; Luo, Wenqi; Lv, Wenxin; Zhang, Chengdong; Song, Xiaowei; Yang, Yuan; Zhang, Yuening; Xu, Yanzhen; Xiao, Feifan; Wei, Yan; Qin, Jian; Li, Hongtao; Yang, Xiaoli
2017-07-01
PARP-1 (poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase-1) plays an important role in tumorigenesis. Since its effects on different populations are varied, this study investigated the impact of PARP-1 on primary hepatocellular carcinoma in a Southern Chinese Zhuang population. We assessed the global PARP-1 messenger RNA expression in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma using The Cancer Genome Atlas dataset. Increased PARP-1 expression, related to alpha-fetoprotein level, was observed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value was 0.833. Kaplan-Meier survival curves indicated that higher PARP-1 expression was not correlated with poorer overall survival and recurrence-free survival. In a Zhuang population, PARP-1 messenger RNA and protein levels were increased in the hepatocellular carcinoma tissue and its adjacent liver tissues as assessed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, immunohistochemistry, and western blotting. Higher PARP-1 level was associated with a higher tumor stage (p < 0.05), without correlation with age, gender, smoking, drinking, tumor size, serum alpha-fetoprotein level, hepatitis B virus infection, metastasis, and invasion (p > 0.05). Further analysis suggested that H2AX, a PARP-1 protein interaction partner, was coordinated with PARP-1 in hepatocellular carcinoma tumorigenesis. Overall, some new characteristics of PARP-1 expression were noted in the Zhuang population. PARP-1 is a novel promising diagnostic marker for hepatocellular carcinoma in the Southern Chinese Zhuang population.
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Arteca, Ellen M.; Newman, Jonathan A.
2017-01-01
D. suzukii is a relatively recent and destructive pest species to the North American soft-skinned fruit industry. Understanding this species’ potential to shift in abundance and range due to changing climate is an important part of an effective mitigation and management strategy. We parameterized a temperature-driven D. suzukii population dynamics model using temperature data derived from several Global Circulation Models (CMIP5) with a range of relative concentration pathway (RCP) predictions. Mean consensus between the models suggest that without adaptation to both higher prolonged temperatures and higher short-term temperature events D. suzukii population levels are likely to drop in currently higher-risk regions. The potential drop in population is evident both as time progresses and as the severity of the RCP scenario increases. Some regions, particularly in northern latitudes, may experience increased populations due to milder winter and more developmentally-ideal summer conditions, but many of these regions are not currently known for soft-skinned fruit production and so the effects of this population increase may not have a significant impact. PMID:28396828
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kuby, Michael
Since the beginning of the scientific revolution in the 1700s, the absolute scale of the human economy has increased many times over, and, with it, the impact on the natural environment. This learning module's activities introduce the student to linkages among population growth, energy use, level of economic and technological development and their…
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Brownell, M J; Harwood, V J; Kurz, R C; McQuaig, S M; Lukasik, J; Scott, T M
2007-08-01
The effect of a stormwater conveyance system on indicator bacteria levels at a Florida beach was assessed using microbial source tracking methods, and by investigating indicator bacteria population structure in water and sediments. During a rain event, regulatory standards for both fecal coliforms and Enterococcus spp. were exceeded, contrasting with significantly lower levels under dry conditions. Indicator bacteria levels were high in sediments under all conditions. The involvement of human sewage in the contamination was investigated using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays for the esp gene of Enterococcus faecium and for the conserved T antigen of human polyomaviruses, all of which were negative. BOX-PCR subtyping of Escherichia coli and Enterococcus showed higher population diversity during the rain event; and higher population similarity during dry conditions, suggesting that without fresh inputs, only a subset of the population survives the selective pressure of the secondary habitat. These data indicate that high indicator bacteria levels were attributable to a stormwater system that acted as a reservoir and conduit, flushing high levels of indicator bacteria to the beach during a rain event. Such environmental reservoirs of indicator bacteria further complicate the already questionable relationship between indicator organisms and human pathogens, and call for a better understanding of the ecology, fate and persistence of indicator bacteria.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dieng, Hamady; Rahman, G. M. Saifur; Abu Hassan, A.; Che Salmah, M. R.; Satho, Tomomitsu; Miake, Fumio; Boots, Michael; Sazaly, Abubakar
2012-01-01
Larvae of Aedes albopictus Skuse typically inhabit natural and artificial containers. Since these larval habitats are replenished by rainfall, Ae. albopictus may experience increased loss of immature stages in areas with high levels of rainfall. In this study, we investigated the effects of rainfall and container water level on population density, and oviposition activity of Ae. albopictus. In field and laboratory experiments, we found that rainfall resulted in the flushing of breeding habitats. Excess rain negatively impacted larval and pupal retention, especially in small habitats. When filled with water to overflowing, container habitats were significantly repellent to ovipositing females. Taken together, these data suggest that rainfall triggers population loss of Ae. albopictus and related species through a direct detrimental effect (flushing out) and an indirect effect (ovipositional repellency).
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Monitoring ship noise to assess the impact of coastal developments on marine mammals.
Merchant, Nathan D; Pirotta, Enrico; Barton, Tim R; Thompson, Paul M
2014-01-15
The potential impacts of underwater noise on marine mammals are widely recognised, but uncertainty over variability in baseline noise levels often constrains efforts to manage these impacts. This paper characterises natural and anthropogenic contributors to underwater noise at two sites in the Moray Firth Special Area of Conservation, an important marine mammal habitat that may be exposed to increased shipping activity from proposed offshore energy developments. We aimed to establish a pre-development baseline, and to develop ship noise monitoring methods using Automatic Identification System (AIS) and time-lapse video to record trends in noise levels and shipping activity. Our results detail the noise levels currently experienced by a locally protected bottlenose dolphin population, explore the relationship between broadband sound exposure levels and the indicators proposed in response to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive, and provide a ship noise assessment toolkit which can be applied in other coastal marine environments. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
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Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Donato, Ronald
2017-01-01
To investigate the extent to which individual-level as well as macro-level contextual factors influence the likelihood of underweight across adult sub-populations in India. Population-based cross-sectional survey included in India's National Health Family Survey conducted in 2005-06. We disaggregated into eight sub-populations. Multistage nationally representative household survey covering 99 % of India's population. The survey covered 124 385 females aged 15-49 years and 74 369 males aged 15-54 years. A social gradient in underweight exists in India. Even after allowing for wealth status, differences in the predicted probability of underweight persisted based upon rurality, age/maturity and gender. We found individual-level education lowered the likelihood of underweight for males, but no statistical association for females. Paradoxically, rural young (15-24 years) females from more educated villages had a higher likelihood of underweight relative to those in less educated villages; but for rural mature (>24 years) females the opposite was the case. Christians had a significantly lower likelihood of underweight relative to other socio-religious groups (OR=0·53-0·80). Higher state-level inequality increased the likelihood of underweight across most population groups, while neighbourhood inequality exhibited a similar relationship for the rural young population subgroups only. Individual states/neighbourhoods accounted for 5-9 % of the variation in the prediction of underweight. We found that rural young females represent a particularly highly vulnerable sub-population. Economic growth alone is unlikely to reduce the burden of malnutrition in India; accordingly, policy makers need to address the broader social determinants that contribute to higher underweight prevalence in specific demographic subgroups.
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Pérez de Rosas, Alicia R; Segura, Elsa L; Fichera, Laura; García, Beatriz Alicia
2008-07-01
The genetic structure in populations of the Chagas' disease vector Triatoma infestans from six localities belonging to areas under the same insecticide treatment conditions of Catamarca province (Argentina) was examined at macrogeographical and microgeographical scales. A total of 238 insects were typed for 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci. The average observed and expected heterozygosities ranged from 0.319 to 0.549 and from 0.389 to 0.689, respectively. The present results confirm that populations of T. infestans are highly structured. Spatial genetic structure was detectable at macrogeographical and microgeographical levels. Comparisons of the levels of genetic variability between two temporal samples were carried out to assess the impact of the insecticide treatment. The genetic diversity of the population was not significantly affected after insecticide use since different genetic parameters (allele number, observed and expected heterozygosities) remained stable. However, loss of low frequency alleles and not previously found alleles were detected. The effective population size (N(e)) estimated was substantially lower in the second temporal sample than in the first; nevertheless, it is possible that the size of the remnant population after insecticide treatment was still large enough to retain the genetic diversity. Very few individuals did not belong to the local T. infestans populations as determined by assignment analyses, suggesting a low level of immigration in the population. The results of the assignment and first-generation migrant tests suggest male-biased dispersal at microgeographical level.
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Gregory, David; Scotti, Dennis J; Buck, Daniel; Triadafilopoulos, George
2016-05-01
A minimally invasive endoscopic treatment that utilizes radio-frequency energy (RFE) has received increased attention as an appropriate middle-ground approach in the treatment of refractory gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and as an alternative to complicated and invasive surgical procedures. The objective of this study was to develop a longitudinal budget impact analysis from the payer perspective to estimate the direct medical costs of treatment for the refractory GERD patient population and to estimate the budgetary impact of further extending the RFE treatment option to other target populations. A retrospective analysis of claims designed to assess the longitudinal costs and budget impact on payer expenditures associated with managing and treating GERD surgically (Nissen fundoplication [NF]), endoscopically (RFE), or medically was performed. Both Medicare and commercially insured claims databases were interrogated for such population-level analyses. At current adoption rates (less than 1% of procedures), RFE demonstrated overall cost savings ranging from 7.3% to 50.5% in the 12-month time period following the index procedure (inclusive of procedure costs) when compared to medical management and fundoplication across the commercial and Medicare patient populations. Increasing the total number of RFE procedures to 2% of total cases performed generated per-member, per-month (PMPM) savings of $0.28 in the Medicare population and $0.37 in the commercially insured population. Further increases yielded higher PMPM savings. Adding to the clinical importance of RFE in filling the gap between medical and surgical management, this economic analysis demonstrates to payers that the adoption of RFE can create notable savings to their plans when compared to surgery or medical management.
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Pharmaceuticals and personal care products, including antimicrobials, can be found at trace levels in treated wastewater effluent. Impacts of chemical contaminants on coastal aquatic microbial community structure and pathogen abundance are unknown despite the potential for select...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-12-08
... levels of the Bayview population, including new units that are suitable for families, seniors, and young adults on 20 net acres along with development of adjacent non-SFHA property. Housing would include one...
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2012-01-01
Background For accurate estimation of the future burden of communicable diseases, the dynamics of the population at risk – namely population growth and population ageing – need to be taken into account. Accurate burden estimates are necessary for informing policy-makers regarding the planning of vaccination and other control, intervention, and prevention measures. Our aim was to qualitatively explore the impact of population ageing on the estimated future burden of seasonal influenza and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the Netherlands, in the period 2000–2030. Methods Population-level disease burden was quantified using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) measure applied to all health outcomes following acute infection. We used national notification data, pre-defined disease progression models, and a simple model of demographic dynamics to investigate the impact of population ageing on the burden of seasonal influenza and HBV. Scenario analyses were conducted to explore the potential impact of intervention-associated changes in incidence rates. Results Including population dynamics resulted in increasing burden over the study period for influenza, whereas a relatively stable future burden was predicted for HBV. For influenza, the increase in DALYs was localised within YLL for the oldest age-groups (55 and older), and for HBV the effect of longer life expectancy in the future was offset by a reduction in incidence in the age-groups most at risk of infection. For both infections, the predicted disease burden was greater than if a static demography was assumed: 1.0 (in 2000) to 2.3-fold (in 2030) higher DALYs for influenza; 1.3 (in 2000) to 1.5-fold (in 2030) higher for HBV. Conclusions There are clear, but diverging effects of an ageing population on the estimated disease burden of influenza and HBV in the Netherlands. Replacing static assumptions with a dynamic demographic approach appears essential for deriving realistic burden estimates for informing health policy. PMID:23217094
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Disaggregating residential water demand for improved forecasts and decision making
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Woodard, G.; Brookshire, D.; Chermak, J.; Krause, K.; Roach, J.; Stewart, S.; Tidwell, V.
2003-04-01
Residential water demand is the product of population and per capita demand. Estimates of per capita demand often are based on econometric models of demand, usually based on time series data of demand aggregated at the water provider level. Various studies have examined the impact of such factors as water pricing, weather, and income, with many other factors and details of water demand remaining unclear. Impacts of water conservation programs often are estimated using simplistic engineering calculations. Partly as a result of this, policy discussions regarding water demand management often focus on water pricing, water conservation, and growth control. Projecting water demand is often a straight-forward, if fairly uncertain process of forecasting population and per capita demand rates. SAHRA researchers are developing improved forecasts of residential water demand by disaggregating demand to the level of individuals, households, and specific water uses. Research results based on high-resolution water meter loggers, household-level surveys, economic experiments and recent census data suggest that changes in wealth, household composition, and individual behavior may affect demand more than changes in population or the stock of landscape plants, water-using appliances and fixtures, generally considered the primary determinants of demand. Aging populations and lower fertility rates are dramatically reducing household size, thereby increasing the number of households and residences for a given population. Recent prosperity and low interest rates have raised home ownership rates to unprecented levels. These two trends are leading to increased per capita outdoor water demand. Conservation programs have succeeded in certain areas, such as promoting drought-tolerant native landscaping, but have failed in other areas, such as increasing irrigation efficiency or curbing swimming pool water usage. Individual behavior often is more important than the household's stock of water-using fixtures, and ranges from hedonism (installing pools and whirlpool tubs) to satisficing (adjusting irrigation timers only twice per year) to acting on deeply-held conservation ethics in ways that not only fail any benefit-cost test, but are discouraged, or even illegal (reuse of gray water and black water). Research findings are being captured in dynamic simulation models that integrate social and natural science to create tools to assist water resource managers in providing sustainable water supplies and improving residential water demand forecasts. These models feature simple, graphical user interfaces and output screens that provide decision makers with visual, easy-to-understand information at the basin level. The models reveal connections between various supply and demand components, and highlight direct impacts and feedback mechanisms associated with various policy options.
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Fung, Christina; McIsaac, Jessie-Lee D; Kuhle, Stefan; Kirk, Sara F L; Veugelers, Paul J
2013-12-01
The objective of this study is to assess population-level trends in children's dietary intake and weight status before and after the implementation of a provincial school nutrition policy in the province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Self-reported dietary behavior and nutrient intake and measured body mass index were collected as part of a population-level study with grade 5 students in 2003 (n=5215) and 2011 (5508), prior to and following implementation of the policy. We applied random effects regression methods to assess the effect of the policy on dietary and health outcomes. In 2011, students reported consuming more milk products, while there was no difference in mean consumption of vegetables and fruits in adjusted models. Adjusted regression analysis revealed a statistically significant decrease in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption. Despite significant temporal decreases in dietary energy intake and increases in diet quality, prevalence rates of overweight and obesity continued to increase. This population-level intervention research suggests a positive influence of school nutrition policies on diet quality, energy intake and healthy beverage consumption, and that more action beyond schools is needed to curb the increases in the prevalence of childhood obesity. © 2013.
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Beyer, Kirsten M. M.; Kaltenbach, Andrea; Szabo, Aniko; Bogar, Sandra; Nieto, F. Javier; Malecki, Kristen M.
2014-01-01
Green space is now widely viewed as a health-promoting characteristic of residential environments, and has been linked to mental health benefits such as recovery from mental fatigue and reduced stress, particularly through experimental work in environmental psychology. Few population level studies have examined the relationships between green space and mental health. Further, few studies have considered the role of green space in non-urban settings. This study contributes a population-level perspective from the United States to examine the relationship between environmental green space and mental health outcomes in a study area that includes a spectrum of urban to rural environments. Multivariate survey regression analyses examine the association between green space and mental health using the unique, population-based Survey of the Health of Wisconsin database. Analyses were adjusted for length of residence in the neighborhood to reduce the impact of neighborhood selection bias. Higher levels of neighborhood green space were associated with significantly lower levels of symptomology for depression, anxiety and stress, after controlling for a wide range of confounding factors. Results suggest that “greening” could be a potential population mental health improvement strategy in the United States. PMID:24662966
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Gormaz, Juan G.; Libuy, Matías; Sanhueza, Dérgica; Gajardo, Abraham; Srur, Andrea; Wallbaum, Magdalena
2017-01-01
Aim To estimate the impact of tobacco use, sedentary lifestyle, obesity and alcohol consumption on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence in the Chilean population. Methods The study-included 5,293 subjects with fasting glycaemia levels from the nationwide cross-sectional health survey in 2010, commissioned by the Ministry of Health, Chile. Crude and Adjusted Odds Ratio to T2DM and its corresponding 95% confidence interval were estimated through logistic regressions. Attributable fractions and population attributable fractions were estimated. Results T2DM prevalence was 9.5%. Sedentary lifestyles and obesity were significant risk factors for T2DM. 52,4% of T2DM could be avoided if these individuals were not obese, and at a population level, 23% of T2DM could be preventable if obesity did not exist. A 64% of T2DM is explained by sedentariness, and if people would become active, a 62,2% of the cases of diabetes could be avoided. Interpretation About 79% of T2DM cases in Chile could be prevented with cost-effective strategies focused on preventing sedentary lifestyle and obesity. It’s therefore urgent to implement evidence-based public health polices, aimed to decrease the prevalence of T2DM, by controlling its risk factors and consequently, reducing the complications from T2DM. PMID:28542472
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Gowda, Charitha; Dong, Shiming; Potter, Rachel C; Dombkowski, Kevin J; Stokley, Shannon; Dempsey, Amanda F
2013-01-01
Immunization information systems (IISs) are valuable surveillance tools; however, population relocation may introduce bias when determining immunization coverage. We explored alternative methods for estimating the vaccine-eligible population when calculating adolescent immunization levels using a statewide IIS. We performed a retrospective analysis of the Michigan State Care Improvement Registry (MCIR) for all adolescents aged 11-18 years registered in the MCIR as of October 2010. We explored four methods for determining denominators: (1) including all adolescents with MCIR records, (2) excluding adolescents with out-of-state residence, (3) further excluding those without MCIR activity ≥ 10 years prior to the evaluation date, and (4) using a denominator based on U.S. Census data. We estimated state- and county-specific coverage levels for four adolescent vaccines. We found a 20% difference in estimated vaccination coverage between the most inclusive and restrictive denominator populations. Although there was some variability among the four methods in vaccination at the state level (2%-11%), greater variation occurred at the county level (up to 21%). This variation was substantial enough to potentially impact public health assessments of immunization programs. Generally, vaccines with higher coverage levels had greater absolute variation, as did counties with smaller populations. At the county level, using the four denominator calculation methods resulted in substantial differences in estimated adolescent immunization rates that were less apparent when aggregated at the state level. Further research is needed to ascertain the most appropriate method for estimating vaccine coverage levels using IIS data.
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Vitorino, Carla A; Nogueira, Fabrícia; Souza, Issakar L; Araripe, Juliana; Venere, Paulo C
2017-01-01
The arapaima, Arapaima gigas , is a fish whose populations are threatened by both overfishing and the ongoing destruction of its natural habitats. In the Amazon basin, varying levels of population structure have been found in A. gigas , although no data are available on the genetic diversity or structure of the populations found in the Araguaia-Tocantins basin, which has a topographic profile, hydrological regime, and history of fishing quite distinct from those of the Amazon. In this context, microsatellite markers were used to assess the genetic diversity and connectivity of five wild A. gigas populations in the Araguaia-Tocantins basin. The results of the analysis indicated low levels of genetic diversity in comparison with other A. gigas populations, studied in the Amazon basin. The AMOVA revealed that the Arapaima populations of the Araguaia-Tocantins basin are structured significantly. No correlation was found between pairwise F ST values and the geographical distance among populations. The low level of genetic variability and the evidence of restricted gene flow may both be accounted for by overfishing, as well as the other human impacts that these populations have been exposed to over the years. The genetic fragility of these populations demands attention, given that future environmental changes (natural or otherwise) may further reduce these indices and eventually endanger these populations. The results of this study emphasize the need to take the genetic differences among the study populations into account when planning management measures and conservation strategies for the arapaima stocks of the Araguaia-Tocantins basin.
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Vitorino, Carla A.; Nogueira, Fabrícia; Souza, Issakar L.; Araripe, Juliana; Venere, Paulo C.
2017-01-01
The arapaima, Arapaima gigas, is a fish whose populations are threatened by both overfishing and the ongoing destruction of its natural habitats. In the Amazon basin, varying levels of population structure have been found in A. gigas, although no data are available on the genetic diversity or structure of the populations found in the Araguaia-Tocantins basin, which has a topographic profile, hydrological regime, and history of fishing quite distinct from those of the Amazon. In this context, microsatellite markers were used to assess the genetic diversity and connectivity of five wild A. gigas populations in the Araguaia-Tocantins basin. The results of the analysis indicated low levels of genetic diversity in comparison with other A. gigas populations, studied in the Amazon basin. The AMOVA revealed that the Arapaima populations of the Araguaia-Tocantins basin are structured significantly. No correlation was found between pairwise FST values and the geographical distance among populations. The low level of genetic variability and the evidence of restricted gene flow may both be accounted for by overfishing, as well as the other human impacts that these populations have been exposed to over the years. The genetic fragility of these populations demands attention, given that future environmental changes (natural or otherwise) may further reduce these indices and eventually endanger these populations. The results of this study emphasize the need to take the genetic differences among the study populations into account when planning management measures and conservation strategies for the arapaima stocks of the Araguaia-Tocantins basin. PMID:29114261
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Family welfare and health practices increase after exposure to population education.
1994-01-01
Since 1987, the State Resource Center of Jamia Millia Islamia of New Delhi has been implementing a program which integrates population education contents into its literacy education classes for adult learners. Using the core messages on family size, spacing of children, responsible parenthood, right age of marriage, population-related beliefs and customs and population and development, the Center undertook many activities such as: i) integrating population contents in literacy primers, readers and supplementary reading books; ii) development of teaching aids and instructor's resource materials; iii) organization of training for instructors and iv) holding outreach activities such as street corner plays, fairs, etc. To evaluate the impact of the program, the Center undertook an impact survey to measure the level of knowledge, attitude and practices of randomly selected beneficiaries of the project, i.e. 934 learners from 85 literacy learning centers, 5 years after the introduction of the population education program. The study used pre-test and post-test method for collecting data and to compare results. In terms of practice, the study has shown that the respondents having knowledge about family planning methods increased from 67 to 87%, after being exposed to the project's activities. There was also an increase of 61% in cases adopting family planning methods over the pre-measurement level. More importantly, there was not only an increase in awareness of public health and family welfare services but a 137% increase was registered in the use of public health and family welfare facilities for family planning counseling and services. With regard to knowledge and attitude on the various population education messages promoted by the project, the study has shown a 40% increase in "high" knowledge category and 25% increase in favorable attitude after the exposure to the project. full text
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Prinz, Ronald J; Sanders, Matthew R; Shapiro, Cheri J; Whitaker, Daniel J; Lutzker, John R
2016-04-01
A previous article published several years ago (Prinz et al. Prevention Science, 10, 1-12, 2009) described the main results of a place-randomized-design study focused on the prevention of child-maltreatment-related outcomes at a population level through the implementation of a multilevel system of parenting and family support (the Triple P-Positive Parenting Program). The current report, prepared at the encouragement of the journal, provides additional details about procedures, measures, and design-related decisions, presents an additional analysis of the main outcome variables, and poses questions about the study and its implications. We also offer guidance about how the field can move forward to build on this line of research. From the outset, the three designated primary child maltreatment outcomes were county-wide rates for substantiated child maltreatment cases, out-of-home placements, and hospital-treated child maltreatment injuries, derived from independent data sources available through administrative archival records. Baseline equivalence between the two intervention conditions was reaffirmed. The additional analysis, which made use of a 5-year baseline (replacing a 1-year baseline) and ANCOVA, yielded large effect sizes for all three outcomes that converged with those from the original analyses. Overall, the study underscored the potential for community-wide parenting and family support to produce population-level preventive impact on child maltreatment. Issues addressed included (1) the need for replication of population-oriented maltreatment prevention strategies like the one tested in this randomized experiment, (2) the need to demonstrate that a parenting-based population approach to maltreatment prevention can also impact children's adjustment apart from child abuse, and (3) the role of implementation science for achieving greater population reach and maintenance over time.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Akomolafe, Comfort Olufunke; Adesua, Veronica Olubunmi
2016-01-01
The paper examines the relevance of physical facilities in enhancing the level of motivation and the academic performance of senior secondary school students in South West Nigeria. The study adopted ex-post facto design. The population consists of all senior secondary students in South West Nigeria. The sample for the study include one thousand…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Carter, Ted
2014-01-01
This report shows the impact of various school funding measures on student outcomes measured by NAEP, ACT, and SAT scores, the four-year cohort graduation rate, and percent of the population ages 18-24 with at least a high school diploma. State-level data for the United States from 2005 through 2014 as available is utilized to establish the nature…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Walsh, Denise; Belton, Sarahjane; Meegan, Sarah; Bowers, Kirsty; Corby, Deidre; Staines, Anthony; McVeigh, Treasa; McKeon, Michael; Hoey, Edel; Trépel, Dominic; Griffin, Peter; Sweeney, Mary Rose
2018-01-01
People with an intellectual disability are less physically active, live more sedentary lives, have lower fitness levels and are more likely to be overweight or obese than the general population. No evidence exists on the impact of participation in Special Olympics Ireland (SOI) on physical activity and physical fitness levels. Adults with…
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Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Goodreau, Steven M.; Liu, Albert; Vittinghoff, Eric; Sanchez, Jorge; Lama, Javier R.; Buchbinder, Susan
2015-01-01
Background We aim to identify optimal strategies for deploying pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in the US and Peru to maximize population-level effectiveness in an efficient manner. We use epidemic models to simulate the impact of targeting strategies. Most studies have focused on targeting either the general population or high-risk MSM. Alternative strategies, including serodiscordant couples, may better balance effectiveness and efficiency. Methods We use dynamic, stochastic sexual network models based in exponential-family random graph modeling, parameterized from behavioral surveys of MSM in the US and Peru. These models represent main partnerships and casual contacts separately, permitting modeling of interventions targeting men whose risk derives from combinations of relational types. We also model varying rates of uptake and adherence to PrEP. We assess sensitivity of results to risk compensation via increases in condomless casual contacts and condomless sex in main partnerships. Results Targeting all men who are not exclusively insertive has the largest impact on HIV incidence, but targeting only those with high levels of casual activity yields comparable results using fewer person-years on PrEP. The effect is robust to risk compensation in the US, but less so in Peru. Targeting serodiscordant main partnerships does not significantly impact incidence, but requires fewer person-years on PrEP per infection averted than other strategies. Conclusions PrEP could be effective in reducing new infections at the population level in both settings. Serodiscordant partnerships are an attractive component of a targeting program, but targeting should include other high-risk men. PMID:25942463
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Carnegie, Nicole B; Goodreau, Steven M; Liu, Albert; Vittinghoff, Eric; Sanchez, Jorge; Lama, Javier R; Buchbinder, Susan
2015-05-01
We aim to identify optimal strategies for deploying pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States and Peru to maximize population-level effectiveness in an efficient manner. We use epidemic models to simulate the impact of targeting strategies. Most studies have focused on targeting either the general population or high-risk MSM. Alternative strategies, including serodiscordant couples, may better balance effectiveness and efficiency. We use dynamic stochastic sexual network models based on exponential-family random graph modeling, parameterized from behavioral surveys of MSM in the United States and Peru. These models represent main partnerships and casual contacts separately, permitting modeling of interventions targeting men whose risk derives from combinations of relational types. We also model varying rates of uptake and adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We assess sensitivity of results to risk compensation through increases in condomless casual contacts and condomless sex in main partnerships. Targeting all men who are not exclusively insertive has the largest impact on HIV incidence, but targeting only those with high levels of casual activity yields comparable results using fewer person-years on PrEP. The effect is robust to risk compensation in the United States, but less so in Peru. Targeting serodiscordant main partnerships does not significantly impact incidence, but requires fewer person-years on PrEP per infection averted than other strategies. PrEP could be effective in reducing new infections at the population level in both settings. Serodiscordant partnerships are an attractive component of a targeting program, but targeting should include other high-risk men.
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Environmental conditions and prey-switching by a seabird predator impact juvenile salmon survival
Wells, Brian K.; Santora, Jarrod A.; Henderson, Mark J.; Warzybok, Pete; Jahncke, Jaime; Bradley, Russell W.; Huff, David D.; Schroeder, Isaac D.; Nelson, Peter; Field, John C.; Ainley, David G.
2017-01-01
Due to spatio-temporal variability of lower trophic-level productivity along the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), predators must be capable of switching prey or foraging areas in response to changes in environmental conditions and available forage. The Gulf of the Farallones in central California represents a biodiversity hotspot and contains the largest common murre (Uria aalge) colonies along the CCE. During spring, one of the West Coast's most important Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations out-migrates into the Gulf of the Farallones. We quantify the effect of predation on juvenile Chinook salmon associated with ecosystem-level variability by integrating long-term time series of environmental conditions (upwelling, river discharge), forage species abundance within central CCE, and population size, at-sea distribution, and diet of the common murre. Our results demonstrate common murres typically forage in the vicinity of their offshore breeding sites, but in years in which their primary prey, pelagic young-of-year rockfish (Sebastesspp.), are less available they forage for adult northern anchovies (Engraulis mordax) nearshore. Incidentally, while foraging inshore, common murre consumption of out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon, which are collocated with northern anchovy, increases and population survival of the salmon is significantly reduced. Results support earlier findings that show timing and strength of upwelling, and the resultant forage fish assemblage, is related to Chinook salmon recruitment variability in the CCE, but we extend those results by demonstrating the significance of top-down impacts associated with these bottom-up dynamics. Our results demonstrate the complexity of ecosystem interactions and impacts between higher trophic-level predators and their prey, complexities necessary to quantify in order to parameterize ecosystem models and evaluate likely outcomes of ecosystem management options.
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Environmental conditions and prey-switching by a seabird predator impact juvenile salmon survival
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wells, Brian K.; Santora, Jarrod A.; Henderson, Mark J.; Warzybok, Pete; Jahncke, Jaime; Bradley, Russell W.; Huff, David D.; Schroeder, Isaac D.; Nelson, Peter; Field, John C.; Ainley, David G.
2017-10-01
Due to spatio-temporal variability of lower trophic-level productivity along the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), predators must be capable of switching prey or foraging areas in response to changes in environmental conditions and available forage. The Gulf of the Farallones in central California represents a biodiversity hotspot and contains the largest common murre (Uria aalge) colonies along the CCE. During spring, one of the West Coast's most important Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations out-migrates into the Gulf of the Farallones. We quantify the effect of predation on juvenile Chinook salmon associated with ecosystem-level variability by integrating long-term time series of environmental conditions (upwelling, river discharge), forage species abundance within central CCE, and population size, at-sea distribution, and diet of the common murre. Our results demonstrate common murres typically forage in the vicinity of their offshore breeding sites, but in years in which their primary prey, pelagic young-of-year rockfish (Sebastes spp.), are less available they forage for adult northern anchovies (Engraulis mordax) nearshore. Incidentally, while foraging inshore, common murre consumption of out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon, which are collocated with northern anchovy, increases and population survival of the salmon is significantly reduced. Results support earlier findings that show timing and strength of upwelling, and the resultant forage fish assemblage, is related to Chinook salmon recruitment variability in the CCE, but we extend those results by demonstrating the significance of top-down impacts associated with these bottom-up dynamics. Our results demonstrate the complexity of ecosystem interactions and impacts between higher trophic-level predators and their prey, complexities necessary to quantify in order to parameterize ecosystem models and evaluate likely outcomes of ecosystem management options.
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2012-01-01
Background The snail Neotricula aperta transmits Mekong schistosomiasis in southern Laos and Cambodia, with about 1.5 million people at risk of infection. Plans are under consideration for at least 12 hydroelectric power dams on the lower Mekong river and much controversy surrounds predictions of their environmental impacts. Unfortunately, there are almost no ecological data (such as long term population trend studies) available for N. aperta which could be used in impact assessment. Predictions currently assume that the impacts will be the same as those observed in Africa (i.e., a worsening of the schistosomiasis problem); however, marked ecological differences between the snails involved suggest that region specific models are required. The present study was performed as an initial step in providing data, which could be useful in the planning of water resource development in the Mekong. Snail population density records were analyzed for populations close to, and far downstream of, the Nam Theun 2 (NT2) project in Laos in order to detect any changes that might be attributable to impoundment. Results The population immediately downstream of NT2 and that sampled 400 km downstream in Thailand both showed a long term trend of slow growth from 1992 to 2005; however, both populations showed a marked decline in density between 2005 and 2011. The decline in Thailand was to a value significantly lower than that predicted by a linear mixed model for the data, whilst the population density close to NT2 fell to undetectable levels in 2011 from densities of over 5000 m-2 in 2005. The NT2 dam began operation in 2010. Conclusions The impact of the NT2 dam on N. aperta population density could be more complex than first thought and may reflect the strict ecological requirements of this snail. There was no indication that responses of N. aperta populations to dam construction are similar to those observed with Bulinus and Schistosoma haematobium in Africa, for example. In view of the present findings, more ecological data (in particular population density monitoring and surveillance for new habitats) are urgently required in order to understand properly the likely impacts of water resource development on Mekong schistosomiasis. PMID:22720904
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Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon.
Sellers, Samuel
2017-06-01
Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting.
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Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon
Sellers, Samuel
2017-01-01
Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting. PMID:29056808
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From Individuals to International Policy: Achievements and Ongoing Needs in Diabetes Advocacy
Oser, Sean M.; Close, Kelly L.; Liu, Nancy F.; Hood, Korey K.; Anderson, Barbara J.
2015-01-01
Diabetes impacts tens of millions of people in the United States of America and 9 % of the worldwide population. Given the public health implications and economic burden of diabetes, the needs of people with diabetes must be addressed through strategic and effective advocacy efforts. Diabetes advocacy aims to increase public awareness about diabetes, raise funds for research and care, influence policy impacting people with diabetes, and promote optimal individual outcomes. We present a framework for diabetes advocacy activities by individuals and at the community, national, and international levels and identify challenges and gaps in current diabetes advocacy. Various groups have organized successful diabetes advocacy campaigns toward these goals, and lessons for further advancing diabetes advocacy can be learned from other health-related populations. Finally, we discuss the role of healthcare providers and mental/behavioral health professionals in advocacy efforts that can benefit their patients and the broader population of people with diabetes. PMID:26194156
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Jones, Alice R; Bull, C Michael; Brook, Barry W; Wells, Konstans; Pollock, Kenneth H; Fordham, Damien A
2016-03-01
Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.
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Language and infant mortality in a large Canadian province.
Auger, N; Bilodeau-Bertrand, M; Costopoulos, A
2016-10-01
Infant mortality in minority populations of Canada is poorly understood, despite evidence of ethnic inequality in other countries. We studied infant mortality in different linguistic groups of Quebec, and assessed how language and deprivation impacted rates over time. Population-level study of vital statistics data for 1,985,287 live births and 10,283 infant deaths reported in Quebec from 1989 through 2012. We computed infant mortality rates for French, English, and foreign languages according to level of material deprivation. Using Kitagawa's method, we evaluated the impact of changes in mortality rates, and population distribution of language groups, on infant mortality in the province. Infant mortality declined from 6.05 to 4.61 per 1000 between 1989-1994 and 2007-2012. Most of the decline was driven by Francophones who contributed 1.39 fewer deaths per 1000 births over time, and Anglophones of wealthy and middle socio-economic status who contributed 0.13 fewer deaths per 1000 births. The foreign language population and poor Anglophones contributed more births over time, including 0.08 and 0.02 more deaths per 1000 births, respectively. Mortality decreased for Francophones and Anglophones in each level of deprivation. Rates were lower for foreign languages, but increased over time, especially for the poor. Infant mortality rates decreased for Francophones and Anglophones in Quebec, but increased for foreign languages. Poor Anglophones and individuals of foreign languages contributed more births over time, and slowed the decrease in infant mortality. Language may be useful for identifying inequality in infant mortality in multicultural nations. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Forbes, Valery E; Salice, Chris J; Birnir, Bjorn; Bruins, Randy J F; Calow, Peter; Ducrot, Virginie; Galic, Nika; Garber, Kristina; Harvey, Bret C; Jager, Henriette; Kanarek, Andrew; Pastorok, Robert; Railsback, Steve F; Rebarber, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille
2017-04-01
Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem services that they provide. This framework builds on considerable advances in mechanistic effects models designed to span multiple levels of biological organization and account for various types of biological interactions and feedbacks. For illustration, the authors introduce 2 case studies that employ well-developed and validated mechanistic effects models: the inSTREAM individual-based model for fish populations and the AQUATOX ecosystem model. They also show how dynamic energy budget theory can provide a common currency for interpreting organism-level toxicity. They suggest that a framework based on mechanistic models that predict impacts on ecosystem services resulting from chemical exposure, combined with economic valuation, can provide a useful approach for informing environmental management. The authors highlight the potential benefits of using this framework as well as the challenges that will need to be addressed in future work. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:845-859. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.
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The impact of tourism on municipal solid waste generation: the case of Menorca Island (Spain).
Mateu-Sbert, Josep; Ricci-Cabello, Ignacio; Villalonga-Olives, Ester; Cabeza-Irigoyen, Elena
2013-12-01
Tourism can sustain high levels of employment and income, but the sector is a source of environmental and health impacts. One of the most important is the generation of municipal solid waste (MSW). However, there is a lack of studies which quantify how much the tourist population engages in total MSW and separately collected recyclables. The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact of the tourist population on MSW, both total and separately collected, for the period 1998-2010, for the Mediterranean island of Menorca (Spain). We use dynamic regressions models, including data for monthly stocks of tourists. The results show that, on average, a 1% increase in the tourist population in Menorca causes an overall MSW increase of 0.282% and one more tourist in Menorca generates 1.31 kg day(-1) (while one more resident generates 1.48 kg day(-1)). This result could be useful to better estimate the seasonal population of different regions, since intrannual fluctuation of MSW is used as a proxy measure of actual population (the sum of residents and tourists). Moreover, an increase of 1% in the tourist population causes an increase of 0.232% in separately collected recyclables and an additional tourist generates 0.160 kg day(-1). One resident selectively collects on average 47.3% more than one tourist. These results can help in the planning of waste infrastructure and waste collection services in tourist areas. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Variation and Functional Impact of Neanderthal Ancestry in Western Asia
Taskent, Recep Ozgur; Alioglu, Nursen Duha; Fer, Evrim
2017-01-01
Abstract Neanderthals contributed genetic material to modern humans via multiple admixture events. Initial admixture events presumably occurred in Western Asia shortly after humans migrated out of Africa. Despite being a focal point of admixture, earlier studies indicate lower Neanderthal introgression rates in some Western Asian populations as compared with other Eurasian populations. To better understand the genome-wide and phenotypic impact of Neanderthal introgression in the region, we sequenced whole genomes of nine present-day Europeans, Africans, and the Western Asian Druze at high depth, and analyzed available whole genome data from various other populations, including 16 genomes from present-day Turkey. Our results confirmed previous observations that contemporary Western Asian populations, on an average, have lower levels of Neanderthal-introgressed DNA relative to other Eurasian populations. Modern Western Asians also show comparatively high variability in Neanderthal ancestry, which may be attributed to the complex demographic history of the region. We further replicated the previously described depletion of putatively functional sequences among Neanderthal-introgressed haplotypes. Still, we find dozens of common Neanderthal-introgressed haplotypes in the Turkish sample associated with human phenotypes, including anthropometric and metabolic traits, as well as the immune response. One of these haplotypes is unusually long and harbors variants that affect the expression of members of the CCR gene family and are associated with celiac disease. Overall, our results paint a complex first picture of the genomic impact of Neanderthal introgression in the Western Asian populations. PMID:29040546
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pérez-Jorge, Sergi; Louzao, Maite; Oro, Daniel; Pereira, Thalia; Corne, Chloe; Wijtten, Zeno; Gomes, Inês; Wambua, John; Christiansen, Fredrik
2017-06-01
Due to the growth of nature-based tourism worldwide, behavioural studies are needed to assess the impact of this industry on wildlife populations and understand their short-term effect. Tourism impact on dolphin populations remain poorly documented in developing countries. This study investigates the effects of nature-based tourism on the behaviour of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) in southern Kenya. We used Markov chain models to estimate transition probabilities between behavioural states in the presence and absence of tourist boats, and assess the overall behavioural budgets. Based on these data and the tourism intensity in the area, we quantified the potential tourist boat disturbance over the period 2006-2013. Our results demonstrated that tourist boat interactions affected dolphins' behavioural budgets, with a significant decrease in the overall amount of time travelling and an increase in diving. The average duration of travelling and resting decreased significantly in the presence of boats. Although the cumulative tourism exposure was not significant for the dolphin population at their current levels, these impacts should be taken into consideration with the potential tourism growth in the area. This is particularly important if tourism reaches periods of high intensity, as we have shown that these periods could have a significant impact for the species, particularly where home-range and core areas are highly overlap by this activity. Understanding the effect of human disturbance variations from previous years may help to predict the consequences on dolphin populations, towards achieving a more ecological and economic sustainability of the activity.
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[Research on ecological population capacity based on food and water in Shandong province].
Lin, C
1991-02-01
The population carrying capacity in Shandong Province, China, based on current food production and water supply is discusses. In 1988, the staple food production exceeded the amount needed for the minimum subsistence level of 300 kg/person. But if the food supply were to be kept at 500 kilos/person, the amount considered to be abundant, the province had a surplus population of 16.11 million. Based on a population projection of medium scenario, the projected level of food production would meet the needs for adequate food consumption. But if the level of abundant supply were to be kept, there would be 12.4 million surplus population. The shortage of water supply is a more acute problem. On the basis of the current water consumption of 514 cubic m/person, the water supply of the province could only meet the needs of 44.9 million. But the population in the province was already 80.6 million in 1988. If the water consumption was 1000 cubic m/person, which was the consumption level of the Soviet Union, the supply can only meet the needs of 23 million population. Even if the potential water resources were fully developed, the supply can only meet the needs of 65.4 million people at the end of the century. The 92.5 million projected population at the time would far exceed the water supply capacity. The severe shortage of water supply of the province would be the most serious ecological problem. Such constraint may also have considerable impact on the sustained socioeconomic development of the province.
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Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Rodda, Harvey; Macadam, Ian; Sarkar, Sananda
2018-10-01
Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Energy Cost Impact of Non-Residential Energy Code Requirements
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhang, Jian; Hart, Philip R.; Rosenberg, Michael I.
2016-08-22
The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code contains 396 separate requirements applicable to non-residential buildings; however, there is no systematic analysis of the energy cost impact of each requirement. Consequently, limited code department budgets for plan review, inspection, and training cannot be focused on the most impactful items. An inventory and ranking of code requirements based on their potential energy cost impact is under development. The initial phase focuses on office buildings with simple HVAC systems in climate zone 4C. Prototype building simulations were used to estimate the energy cost impact of varying levels of non-compliance. A preliminary estimate of themore » probability of occurrence of each level of non-compliance was combined with the estimated lost savings for each level to rank the requirements according to expected savings impact. The methodology to develop and refine further energy cost impacts, specific to building type, system type, and climate location is demonstrated. As results are developed, an innovative alternative method for compliance verification can focus efforts so only the most impactful requirements from an energy cost perspective are verified for every building and a subset of the less impactful requirements are verified on a random basis across a building population. The results can be further applied in prioritizing training material development and specific areas of building official training.« less
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Kaier, K; Moog, S
2012-07-01
Studies have determined the societal impact of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) by modelling its impact on labour supply and productivity. In addition, most of the studies on the topic conclude that the problem of resistance should be counteracted on the macro level by reducing overall antibacterial consumption. Two major questions have been raised in the present work. Firstly, is MRSA impairing labour supply and productivity? Secondly, is it the overall use of antibacterials that may be seen as crucial to the spread of MRSA infections? The age distribution of MRSA patients is compared with the age distribution of the entire patient population at a German teaching hospital. In addition, the age distribution of MRSA patients was applied to the age distribution of the German population in the year 2050 in order to identify the effects of the double-ageing process on the spread of MRSA. Furthermore, recent epidemiological studies were reviewed on the impact of overall antibacterial consumption on MRSA infection rates. Based on available data, we show that patients infected or colonized with MRSA are, for the most part, beyond retirement age and thus not responsible for changes in labour supply or productivity. Application of age distribution of MRSA patients to the age distribution of the German population in the year 2050 gives a 24% increase in the number of MRSA cases to a total of 182 778 due to an ageing population. In addition, we show that a 32% reduction in the cost of MRSA to the German healthcare system could be reached if use of fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins was reduced by just 10% and, correspondingly, use of antiseptics for hand disinfection was increased by 10%. MRSA is a phenomenon that, to a larger degree, affects the elderly population rather than the labour force. When it comes to policy options to counteract MRSA on the macro level, most economic research on the topic is biased in assuming that the overall use of antibacterials is responsible for the spread of MRSA infections.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.
2013-12-01
Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.
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Fischer, Kelly; Sternfeld, Isabelle; Melnick, Douglas Sloan
2013-04-01
To determine if the commonly acknowledged relationships between population density and traffic collisions are found at the subcounty level and to describe how collision characteristics may vary substantially at a local level, with a particular emphasis on exurban areas. Los Angeles County collision data were obtained from the California Highway Patrol and the census tract and service planning area (SPA) for each collision were determined. The correlation between population density and collision rates by census tract was calculated within each SPA and for the entire county. Primary collision factors were compared for geographic areas of different population densities within one exurban SPA in Los Angeles County. An inverse relationship was found between collision rates and population density within Los Angeles County. Primary collisions factors were different in areas of the county with different population densities, with driving or biking under the influence particularly common in the most rural area. Subcounty analyses are very important to the study of traffic collisions. Traffic problems in rapidly developing exurban areas may be quite different from those in older, more established areas.
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Population challenges for Bangladesh in the coming decades.
Streatfield, Peter Kim; Karar, Zunaid Ahsan
2008-09-01
Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other 'mega' country (> 100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption.
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Population Challenges for Bangladesh in the Coming Decades
Streatfield, Peter Kim; Karar, Zunaid Ahsan
2008-01-01
Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other ‘mega’ country (>100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption. PMID:18831223
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Di Matteo, Livio
2005-01-01
This paper examines the determinants of real per capita health expenditures in order to assess the impact of age distribution, income and time using American state-level data for the period 1980-1998 and Canadian province-level data for the period 1975-2000. Ageing population distributions and income explain a relatively small portion of health expenditures when the impact of time effects, which is a partial proxy for technological change, is controlled for. However, the impact of age is of more concern given that cost increases are concentrated in the last few years of life and there may be cohort effects as the "Baby-Boom" generation ages. There is an urgent need to better understand the exact mechanisms driving health expenditure increases given that time accounts for approximately two-thirds of health expenditure increases and that its effect is non-linear.
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Wang, Shijin; Li, Cunfang
2018-01-01
Towns and cities are not only the focus of attention for their consumption of energy and resources; they are also scrutinized closely for their emissions of greenhouse gases. China's urbanization level now exceeds 50%, but there is still much disparity compared with the level of urbanization in developed countries. This study selects China's urban population and carbon emissions data for the years 1980-2014 and discusses the timing and cause effect of urbanization and the corresponding carbon emissions using the Granger causality test and an error correction model (ECM) then uses STIRPAT models to extract six indicators to measure the quality of urbanization, namely, the level of urbanization, area of built-up regions, added value of tertiary industries, disposable income per capita, green areas per capita, and energy intensity. These six indicators represent population agglomeration, the expansion of urban areas, industrial agglomeration, quality of life improvements, ecological conservation, and technological improvements, respectively. The study divides 29 provinces in China into three groups based on the quality of urbanization and analyzes the impacts of the six indicators of urbanization quality on carbon emissions. The findings show that the impacts of different factors on carbon emissions vary substantially among the provinces. Finally, the study uses the findings to give suggestions on how to develop low-carbon urbanization.
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Use of interrupted time series analysis in evaluating health care quality improvements.
Penfold, Robert B; Zhang, Fang
2013-01-01
Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis is arguably the strongest quasi-experimental research design. ITS is particularly useful when a randomized trial is infeasible or unethical. The approach usually involves constructing a time series of population-level rates for a particular quality improvement focus (eg, rates of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder [ADHD] medication initiation) and testing statistically for a change in the outcome rate in the time periods before and time periods after implementation of a policy/program designed to change the outcome. In parallel, investigators often analyze rates of negative outcomes that might be (unintentionally) affected by the policy/program. We discuss why ITS is a useful tool for quality improvement. Strengths of ITS include the ability to control for secular trends in the data (unlike a 2-period before-and-after t test), ability to evaluate outcomes using population-level data, clear graphical presentation of results, ease of conducting stratified analyses, and ability to evaluate both intended and unintended consequences of interventions. Limitations of ITS include the need for a minimum of 8 time periods before and 8 after an intervention to evaluate changes statistically, difficulty in analyzing the independent impact of separate components of a program that are implemented close together in time, and existence of a suitable control population. Investigators must also be careful not to make individual-level inferences when population-level rates are used to evaluate interventions (though ITS can be used with individual-level data). A brief description of ITS is provided, including a fully implemented (but hypothetical) study of the impact of a program to reduce ADHD medication initiation in children younger than 5 years old and insured by Medicaid in Washington State. An example of the database needed to conduct an ITS is provided, as well as SAS code to implement a difference-in-differences model using preschool-age children in California as a comparison group. Copyright © 2013 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Moleón, Marcos; Sebastián-González, Esther; Sánchez-Zapata, José A; Real, Joan; Pires, Mathias M; Gil-Sánchez, José M; Bautista, Jesús; Palma, Luís; Bayle, Patrick; Guimarães, Paulo R; Beja, Pedro
2012-11-01
1. A long-standing question in ecology is how natural populations respond to a changing environment. Emergent optimal foraging theory-based models for individual variation go beyond the population level and predict how its individuals would respond to disturbances that produce changes in resource availability. 2. Evaluating variations in resource use patterns at the intrapopulation level in wild populations under changing environmental conditions would allow to further advance in the research on foraging ecology and evolution by gaining a better idea of the underlying mechanisms explaining trophic diversity. 3. In this study, we use a large spatio-temporal scale data set (western continental Europe, 1968-2006) on the diet of Bonelli's Eagle Aquila fasciata breeding pairs to analyse the predator trophic responses at the intrapopulation level to a prey population crash. In particular, we borrow metrics from studies on network structure and intrapopulation variation to understand how an emerging infectious disease [the rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD)] that caused the density of the eagle's primary prey (rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus) to dramatically drop across Europe impacted on resource use patterns of this endangered raptor. 4. Following the major RHD outbreak, substantial changes in Bonelli's Eagle's diet diversity and organisation patterns at the intrapopulation level took place. Dietary variation among breeding pairs was larger after than before the outbreak. Before RHD, there were no clusters of pairs with similar diets, but significant clustering emerged after RHD. Moreover, diets at the pair level presented a nested pattern before RHD, but not after. 5. Here, we reveal how intrapopulation patterns of resource use can quantitatively and qualitatively vary, given drastic changes in resource availability. 6. For the first time, we show that a pathogen of a prey species can indirectly impact the intrapopulation patterns of resource use of an endangered predator. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.
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Jackson, D; Stone, D M; Smith, K; Morgan, G; Shimmield, T
2007-09-01
This study assesses the impact on species other than humans associated with radioactive particles present in the marine environment close to the UKAEA Dounreay site, through a review of marine survey data, to establish the distribution of species and the likelihood of encountering a particle, and considering retention, dissolution or absorption of the particle. Assumptions are made regarding particle density, distribution, size and bio-availability of the radioactive materials. From this, impacts are assessed against the likelihood of mortality or other significant harm to individuals and interpreted in terms of local populations. Results obtained indicate that no significant impact, at the population level, is likely to be observed. This does not preclude that some individuals will be affected. It does, however, suggest that any decision to remediate, if based predominantly on environmental considerations, should be cognisant of the damage caused by remediation itself and subsequent exploitation of the environment by humans.
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Impact of an extreme climatic event on community assembly.
Thibault, Katherine M; Brown, James H
2008-03-04
Extreme climatic events are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude, but their ecological impacts are poorly understood. Such events are large, infrequent, stochastic perturbations that can change the outcome of entrained ecological processes. Here we show how an extreme flood event affected a desert rodent community that has been monitored for 30 years. The flood (i) caused catastrophic, species-specific mortality; (ii) eliminated the incumbency advantage of previously dominant species; (iii) reset long-term population and community trends; (iv) interacted with competitive and metapopulation dynamics; and (v) resulted in rapid, wholesale reorganization of the community. This and a previous extreme rainfall event were punctuational perturbations-they caused large, rapid population- and community-level changes that were superimposed on a background of more gradual trends driven by climate and vegetation change. Captured by chance through long-term monitoring, the impacts of such large, infrequent events provide unique insights into the processes that structure ecological communities.
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Ambient air quality programmes for health impact assessment in the WHO European region.
Mücke, H G
2000-06-01
An important aim of air quality assessment is to provide information about population exposure and health impact assessment. Numerous epidemiological studies have already shown that exposure to excessive levels of ambient air pollutants are associated with either acute or chronic health effects. Until recently, the adequacy of monitoring population exposure in relation to quantitative assessment of health effects of air pollution was rarely considered in ambient air monitoring strategies. This made the formulation of health-related recommendations to risk management difficult and weakens preventive and other measures to reduce adverse health effects of air pollution. To improve local and national capacities for health impact assessment, the European Centre for Environment and Health of the World Health Organization has prepared methodology guidelines concerning selected aspects of air monitoring. The WHO Collaborating Centre for Air Quality Management and Air Pollution Control support efforts in line with international programmes on quality assurance and control for Europe.
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Bélanger, Diane; Abdous, Belkacem; Valois, Pierre; Gosselin, Pierre; Sidi, Elhadji A Laouan
2016-02-12
This study identifies the characteristics and perceptions related to the individual, the dwelling and the neighbourhood of residence associated with the prevalence of self-reported adverse health impacts and an adaptation index when it is very hot and humid in summer in the most disadvantaged sectors of the nine most populous cities of Québec, Canada, in 2011. The study uses a cross-sectional design and a stratified representative sample; 3485 people (individual-level) were interviewed in their residence. They lived in 1647 buildings (building-level) in 87 most materially and socially disadvantaged census dissemination areas (DA-level). Multilevel analysis was used to perform 3-level models nested one in the other to examine individual impacts as well as the adaptation index. For the prevalence of impacts, which is 46 %, the logistic model includes 13 individual-level indicators (including air conditioning and the adaptation index) and 1 building-level indicator. For the adaptation index, with values ranging from -3 to +3, the linear model has 10 individual-level indicators, 1 building-level indicator and 2 DA-level indicators. Of all these indicators, 9 were associated to the prevalence of impacts only and 8 to the adaptation index only. This 3-level analysis shows the differential importance of the characteristics of residents, buildings and their surroundings on self-reported adverse health impacts and on adaptation (other than air conditioning) under hot and humid summer conditions. It also identifies indicators specific to impacts or adaptation. People with negative health impacts from heat rely more on adaptation strategies while low physical activity and good dwelling/building insulation lead to lower adaptation. Better neighbourhood walkability favors adaptations other than air conditioning. Thus, adaptation to heat in these neighbourhoods seems reactive rather than preventive. These first multi-level insights pave the way for the development of a theoretical framework of the process from heat exposure to impacts and adaptation for research, surveillance and public health interventions at all relevant levels.
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Nesting habits influence population genetic structure of a bee living in anthropogenic disturbance.
Vickruck, J L; Richards, M H
2017-05-01
While most organisms are negatively affected by anthropogenic disturbance, a few species thrive in landscapes altered by humans. Typically, native bees are negatively impacted by anthropogenic environmental change, including habitat alteration and climate change. Here, we investigate the population structure of the eastern carpenter bee Xylocopa virginica, a generalist pollinator with a broad geographic range spanning eastern North America. Eastern carpenter bees now nest almost exclusively in artificial wooden structures, linking their geographic distribution and population structure to human activities and disturbance. To investigate the population structure of these bees, we sampled females from 16 different populations from across their range. Nine species-specific microsatellite loci showed that almost all populations are genetically distinct, but with high levels of genetic diversity and low levels of inbreeding overall. Broadly speaking, populations clustered into three distinct genetic groups: a northern group, a western group and a core group. The northern group had low effective population sizes, decreased genetic variability and the highest levels of inbreeding in the data set, suggesting that carpenter bees may be expanding their range northward. The western group was genetically distinct, but lacked signals of a recent range expansion. Climatic data showed that summer and winter temperatures explained a significant amount of the genetic differentiation seen among populations, while precipitation did not. Our results indicate that X. virginica may be one of the rare 'anthrophilic' species that thrive in the face of anthropogenic disturbance. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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[Health impact assessment: one way to introduce health in all policies. SESPAS Report 2010].
Esnaola, Santiago; Bacigalupe, Amaia; Sanz, Elvira; Aldasoro, Elena; Calderón, Carlos; Zuazagoitia, Juan; Cambra, Koldo
2010-12-01
Health impact assessment is a predictive tool to support decisions in policy-making. Current experience shows that health impact assessment could play an important role in the development of the Health in All Policies strategy. This strategy has been extensively used in other European countries and in a wide range of policy and administrative sectors. Health impact assessment is hardly ever mandatory and is frequently carried out separately from other impact assessments. The use of this process in Spain is relatively new, limited and fundamentally based on local level experiences and the screening of regional interventions. The current normative and organizational reform of public health in Spain provides an excellent opportunity to promote the development of health impact assessment. Some of the barriers to the development of this process are related to the biomedical model of health prevailing among health professionals, politicians, and the general population, political disaffection, lack of assessment culture, underdevelopment of community participation processes, and insufficient intersectoral work. Health impact assessment provides an opportunity to move toward improving the population's health and reducing inequalities in health. Consequently, political commitment, as well as investment in education and research, is needed to introduce and develop health impact assessment in all administrative settings and policy sectors. Copyright © 2010 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
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Catton, Haley A; Lalonde, Robert G; De Clerck-Floate, Rosemarie A
2015-03-01
Insects approved for classical biocontrol of weeds are often capable of using close relatives of their target weed for feeding, oviposition, or larval development, with reduced preference and performance. When nontarget herbivory occurs and is suspected to reduce survival, growth, or fecundity of individual plants, and insects are capable of reproducing on their nontarget host, characterization of spatial and temporal patterns of the occurrence and intensity of herbivory is valuable for predicting potential population-level effects. Here, we perform a novel post-release manipulative field experiment with a root-feeding biocontrol weevil, Mogulones crucifer, released in Canada to control the rangeland weed Cynoglossum officinale, to test for its ability to establish on the nontarget plant Hackelia micrantha. After Cynoglossum, M. crucifer exhibits its highest preference for and performance on Hackelia spp. We released M. crucifer on Canadian rangeland sites with naturally occurring populations of H. micrantha growing interspersed with the target weed or in the near absence of the target weed. Adult weevil feeding on surrounding plants was monitored for three summers after release (years 0, 1, and 2), and, subsequently, subsets of plants were destructively sampled to determine M. crucifer oviposition levels. Additional oviposition and larval development data were obtained from seven non-experimental sites where weevils were released zero, three, or four years earlier. M. crucifer was not detected on experimental sites without C. officinale after two years, and nontarget herbivory was restricted to rare, low-level spillover. Visible evidence of adult herbivory (i.e., scars on shoots) was associated with oviposition in 90% of targets but only 30% of nontarget plants. We infer, through ecological refuge theory, that nontarget population-level impacts from M. crucifer spillover are unlikely because of temporal, spatial, and probabilistic refuges from herbivory, and make recommendations for monitoring and management of biocontrol systems with similar attributes, such as removing target plants around nontarget populations of interest. Because M. crucifer is among the least host-specific of the modern weed biocontrol agents, and H. micrantha is likely one of its most highly preferred nontargets, these conclusions are, arguably, generally applicable to other nontarget plants and biocontrol systems.
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Alterations in freshwater inflow resulting from watershed development and water management practices have impacted salinity and water quality and led to declines in oyster populations within southwest Florida estuaries. In the Caloosahatchee Estuary, Florida watershed management ...
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DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2017-05-01
Research has demonstrated that everyday or utilitarian forms of cycling are most likely to generate positive : population-level health impacts (Garrard et al., 2012), yet significant deterrents to routine cycling remain, : particularly for women and ...
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A Cross-Regional Comparison of Recreation
Chieh-Lu Li; Harry C. Zinn; Susan C. Barro; Michael J. Manfredo
2003-01-01
We studied outdoor recreation patterns among older hunting license holders in Pennsylvania and Colorado to better understand aspects of five trends that promise to impact outdoor recreation preferences, behavior, and management priorities: Sunbelt population growth, declining residential stability, urbanization, aging, and increasing levels of formal education. Results...
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St. Onge, K. R.; Palmé, A. E.; Wright, S. I.; Lascoux, M.
2012-01-01
Most species have at least some level of genetic structure. Recent simulation studies have shown that it is important to consider population structure when sampling individuals to infer past population history. The relevance of the results of these computer simulations for empirical studies, however, remains unclear. In the present study, we use DNA sequence datasets collected from two closely related species with very different histories, the selfing species Capsella rubella and its outcrossing relative C. grandiflora, to assess the impact of different sampling strategies on summary statistics and the inference of historical demography. Sampling strategy did not strongly influence the mean values of Tajima’s D in either species, but it had some impact on the variance. The general conclusions about demographic history were comparable across sampling schemes even when resampled data were analyzed with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We used simulations to explore the effects of sampling scheme under different demographic models. We conclude that when sequences from modest numbers of loci (<60) are analyzed, the sampling strategy is generally of limited importance. The same is true under intermediate or high levels of gene flow (4Nm > 2–10) in models in which global expansion is combined with either local expansion or hierarchical population structure. Although we observe a less severe effect of sampling than predicted under some earlier simulation models, our results should not be seen as an encouragement to neglect this issue. In general, a good coverage of the natural range, both within and between populations, will be needed to obtain a reliable reconstruction of a species’s demographic history, and in fact, the effect of sampling scheme on polymorphism patterns may itself provide important information about demographic history. PMID:22870403
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Campbell, Patricia Therese; McVernon, Jodie; McIntyre, Peter; Geard, Nicholas
2016-01-01
Background. Antenatal pertussis vaccination is being considered as a means to reduce the burden of infant pertussis in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but its likely impact in such settings is yet to be quantified. Methods. An individual-based model was used to simulate the demographic structure and dynamics of a population with characteristics similar to those of LMICs. Transmission of pertussis within this population was simulated to capture the incidence of infection in (1) the absence of vaccination; (2) with a primary course only (three doses of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccines [DTP3] commencing in 1985, 1995, or 2005 at 20%, 50%, or 80% coverage); and (3) with the addition of an antenatal pertussis program. Results. Modeled annual incidence averaged over the period 2015–2024 reduced with increasing DTP3 coverage, regardless of the year childhood vaccination commenced. Over the same period, the proportion of infants born with passive protection did not change substantially compared with the prevaccination situation, regardless of DTP3 coverage and start year. We found minimal impact of antenatal vaccination on infection in all infants when mothers were eligible for a single antenatal dose. When mothers were eligible for multiple antenatal doses, incidence in infants aged 0–2 months was reduced by around 30%. This result did not hold for the full 0- to 1-year age group, for whom antenatal vaccination did not reduce infection levels. Conclusions. While antenatal vaccination could potentially reduce infant mortality in LMICs, broader gains at the population level are likely to be achieved by focusing efforts on increasing DTP3 coverage. PMID:27838675
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Nash, Jon P.; Kime, David E.; Van der Ven, Leo T. M.; Wester, Piet W.; Brion, François; Maack, Gerd; Stahlschmidt-Allner, Petra; Tyler, Charles R.
2004-01-01
Heightened concern over endocrine-disrupting chemicals is driven by the hypothesis that they could reduce reproductive success and affect wildlife populations, but there is little evidence for this expectation. The pharmaceutical ethynylestradiol (EE2) is a potent endocrine modulator and is present in the aquatic environment at biologically active concentrations. To investigate impacts on reproductive success and mechanisms of disruption, we exposed breeding populations (n = 12) of zebrafish (Danio rerio) over multiple generations to environmentally relevant concentrations of EE2. Life-long exposure to 5 ng/L EE2 in the F1 generation caused a 56% reduction in fecundity and complete population failure with no fertilization. Conversely, the same level of exposure for up to 40 days in mature adults in the parental F0 generation had no impact on reproductive success. Infertility in the F1 generation after life-long exposure to 5 ng/L EE2 was due to disturbed sexual differentiation, with males having no functional testes and either undifferentiated or inter-sex gonads. These F1 males also showed a reduced vitellogenic response when compared with F0 males, indicating an acclimation to EE2 exposure. Depuration studies found only a partial recovery in reproductive capacity after 5 months. Significantly, even though the F1 males lacked functional testes, they showed male-pattern reproductive behavior, inducing the spawning act and competing with healthy males to disrupt fertilization. Endocrine disruption is therefore likely to affect breeding dynamics and reproductive success in group-spawning fish. Our findings raise major concerns about the population-level impacts for wildlife of long-term exposure to low concentrations of estrogenic endocrine disruptors. PMID:15579420
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[Impact of high salt consumption of blood pressure on a non-hypertensive population].
Domínguez Cancino, Karen; Paredes Escobar, María Cristina
2017-12-01
Background There is conflicting evidence regarding the role of salt intake in blood pressure (BP). Aim To estimate the impact of salt consumption on the BP level of a non-hypertensive population aged between 15 and 64 years. Material and Methods Analytical-observational study using data from the National Health Survey 2009-2010. A BP cut-off point at 120/80 mmHg BP was considered to determine risk. Salt consumption was divided into four strata. The prevalence ratios (PR) were determined using the Poisson model with robust variance. The formulas of the studies of Dal Grande and Walter for the estimation of population attributable fraction (PAF) were used. Results The sample was constituted by 1,263 individuals and 24.3% had BP at risk. A statistically significant association was observed between high salt intake and risk BP with PR of 1.91 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.44-2.57) in the consumption stratum of 11 g / day and more. It was estimated that 4.7% (95% CI 4.2-5.2) of BP risk can be attributed to salt consumption, when controlling by age group, sex and educational level. Conclusions The 4.7% PAF is lower than the figure of 30% reported abroad. Interventions to reduce salt consumption in the entire population and the identification of risk groups are recommended.
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Van de Perre, Evelien; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Lachat, Carl; El Tahan, Fouad; De Meulenaer, Bruno
2015-01-01
In this study the impact of setting European criteria on exposure to aflatoxin B1 via nuts and figs and ochratoxin A via dried fruits is evaluated for the Belgian population, as an example of the European population. Two different scenarios were evaluated. In scenario 1 all collected literature data are considered, assuming that there is no border control nor legal limits in Europe. In the second scenario, contamination levels above the maximum limits are excluded. The results from scenario 1 demonstrated that if no regulation is in place, AFB1 and OTA concentrations reported in the analysed food can have potential health risk to the population. The estimated exposure of OTA for scenario 2 is below the TDI of 5 ng/kg BW⋅day, indicating that OTA concentrations accepted by EU legislation pose a low risk to the Belgian population. For AFB1, the MOE values of scenario 2 are above 10,000 and can be considered to be of low health concern, based on BDML10 for humans, except for figs (MOE = 5782). This means that for all matrices, with exception of figs, the maximum values of AFB1 in the European legislation are sufficient to be of a low health concern for consumers. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Eikemo, Terje A; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Kulik, Margarete C; Kulhánová, Ivana; Toch-Marquardt, Marlen; Menvielle, Gwenn; Looman, Caspar; Jasilionis, Domantas; Martikainen, Pekka; Lundberg, Olle; Mackenbach, Johan P
2014-01-01
Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are one of the greatest challenges for health policy in all European countries, but the potential for reducing these inequalities is unclear. We therefore quantified the impact of equalizing the distribution of six risk factors for mortality: smoking, overweight, lack of physical exercise, lack of social participation, low income, and economic inactivity. We collected and harmonized data on mortality and risk factors by educational level for 21 European populations in the early 2000s. The impact of the risk factors on mortality in each educational group was determined using Population Attributable Fractions. We estimated the impact on inequalities in mortality of two scenarios: a theoretical upward levelling scenario in which inequalities in the risk factor were completely eliminated, and a more realistic best practice scenario, in which inequalities in the risk factor were reduced to those seen in the country with the smallest inequalities for that risk factor. In general, upward levelling of inequalities in smoking, low income and economic inactivity hold the greatest potential for reducing inequalities in mortality. While the importance of low income is similar across Europe, smoking is more important in the North and East, and overweight in the South. On the basis of best practice scenarios the potential for reducing inequalities in mortality is often smaller, but still substantial in many countries for smoking and physical inactivity. Theoretically, there is a great potential for reducing inequalities in mortality in most European countries, for example by equity-oriented tobacco control policies, income redistribution and employment policies. Although it is necessary to achieve substantial degrees of upward levelling to make a notable difference for inequalities in mortality, the existence of best practice countries with more favourable distributions for some of these risk factors suggests that this is feasible.
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Eikemo, Terje A.; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Kulik, Margarete C.; Kulhánová, Ivana; Toch-Marquardt, Marlen; Menvielle, Gwenn; Looman, Caspar; Jasilionis, Domantas; Martikainen, Pekka; Lundberg, Olle; Mackenbach, Johan P.
2014-01-01
Background Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are one of the greatest challenges for health policy in all European countries, but the potential for reducing these inequalities is unclear. We therefore quantified the impact of equalizing the distribution of six risk factors for mortality: smoking, overweight, lack of physical exercise, lack of social participation, low income, and economic inactivity. Methods We collected and harmonized data on mortality and risk factors by educational level for 21 European populations in the early 2000s. The impact of the risk factors on mortality in each educational group was determined using Population Attributable Fractions. We estimated the impact on inequalities in mortality of two scenarios: a theoretical upward levelling scenario in which inequalities in the risk factor were completely eliminated, and a more realistic best practice scenario, in which inequalities in the risk factor were reduced to those seen in the country with the smallest inequalities for that risk factor. Findings In general, upward levelling of inequalities in smoking, low income and economic inactivity hold the greatest potential for reducing inequalities in mortality. While the importance of low income is similar across Europe, smoking is more important in the North and East, and overweight in the South. On the basis of best practice scenarios the potential for reducing inequalities in mortality is often smaller, but still substantial in many countries for smoking and physical inactivity. Interpretation Theoretically, there is a great potential for reducing inequalities in mortality in most European countries, for example by equity-oriented tobacco control policies, income redistribution and employment policies. Although it is necessary to achieve substantial degrees of upward levelling to make a notable difference for inequalities in mortality, the existence of best practice countries with more favourable distributions for some of these risk factors suggests that this is feasible. PMID:25369287
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Investing for Impact: The Global Fund Approach to Measurement of AIDS Response.
Jain, Suman; Zorzi, Nathalie
2017-07-01
The Global Fund raises and invests nearly US$4 billion a year to support programs run in more than 140 countries. The Global Fund strategy 2012-2016 is focused on "Investing for Impact". In order to accomplish this, timely and accurate data are needed to inform strategies and prioritize activities to achieve greater coverage with quality services. Monitoring and evaluation is intrinsic to the Global Fund's system of performance-based funding. The Global Fund invests in strengthening measurement and reporting of results at all stages of the grant cycle. The Global Fund approach to measurement is based on three key principles-(1) simplified reporting: the Global Fund has updated its measurement guidance to focus on impact, coverage and quality with the use of a harmonized set of indicators. (2) Supporting data systems-based on a common framework developed and supported by partners, it promotes investment in five common data systems: routine reporting including HMIS; Surveys-population based and risk group surveys; Analysis, reviews and transparency; Administrative and financial data sources; and, Vital registration systems. (3) Strengthen data use: the Global Fund funding encourages use of data at all levels-national, subnational and site level. Countries do not automatically prioritize M&E but when guidance, tools and investments are available, there is high level utilization of M&E systems in program design, planning, implementation, and results reporting. An in-depth analysis of the available data helps the Global Fund and countries to direct investments towards interventions where impact could be achieved and focus on target population groups and geographic areas that are most affected.
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A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir
2016-04-01
To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 1,398 subnational areas of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. An analysis of country-level population exposure showed that approximately 750 million people are affected from combined climate-hazards. Of the affected population 72% are in India, followed by 12% each from Bangladesh and Pakistan. Due in part to the economic importance of agriculture, it was found to be most vulnerable and exposed to climate extremes. An analysis of individual hazards indicates that floods and droughts) are the dominant hazards impacting agricultural areas followed by extreme rainfall, extreme temperature and sea-level rise. Based on this vulnerability assessment, all the regions of Bangladesh and the Indian States in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Orissa; Ampara, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Mannar and Batticaloa in Sri Lanka; Sind and Baluchistan in Pakistan; Central and East Nepal; and the transboundary river basins of Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra are among the most vulnerable regions in South Asia.
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Loeppke, Ron; Nicholson, Sean; Taitel, Michael; Sweeney, Matthew; Haufle, Vince; Kessler, Ronald C
2008-12-01
This study evaluated the impact of an integrated population health enhancement program on employee health risks, health conditions, and productivity. Specifically, we analyzed changes in these measures among a cohort of 543 employees who completed a health risk assessment in both 2003 and 2005. We compared these findings with 2 different sets of employees who were not offered health enhancement programming. We found that the DIRECTV cohort showed a significant reduction in health risks after exposure to the program. Relative to a matched comparison group, the proportion of low-risk employees at DIRECTV in 2005 was 8.2 percentage points higher; the proportion of medium-risk employees was 7.1 percentage points lower; and the proportion of high-risk employees was 1.1 percentage points lower (p < 0.001). The most noticeable changes in health risk were a reduction in the proportion of employees with high cholesterol; an improvement in diet; a reduction of heavy drinking; management of high blood pressure; improved stress management; increased exercise; fewer smokers; and a drop in obesity rates. We also found that a majority of employees who improved their risk levels from 2003 to 2005 maintained their gains in 2006. Employees who improved their risks levels also demonstrated relative improvement in absenteeism. Overall, this study provides additional evidence that integrated population health enhancement positively impacts employees' health risk and productivity; it also reinforces the view that "good health is good business."
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The impact of cigarette taxes and advertising on the demand for cigarettes in Ukraine.
Peng, Limin; Ross, Hana
2009-06-01
Cigarette consumption in Ukraine is increasing while the cigarettes are becoming more affordable due to low taxes and raising income. The impact of cigarette prices and taxes on cigarette consumption is unclear due to the limited research evidence using the local data. This study estimates the sensitivity of Ukraine population to cigarette prices and the affordability of cigarettes using the macro level data in order to predict the effectiveness of cigarette tax policy. Monthly time-series data available from 1997 to 2006 in Ukraine were used to estimate the generalized least square model with an AR(1) process to investigate the impact of cigarette price/tax, household income, the affordability of cigarettes and the volume of tobacco advertising on Ukraine domestic cigarette sales while controlling for other factors. Our analyses demonstrate a strong positive association between cigarette sales and household income as well as a strong positive association between cigarette sales and tobacco advertising activity. The population is found to have relatively low sensitivity to cigarette prices and cigarette taxes, but the impact of cigarettes' affordability is statistically significant, even though also of low magnitude. We speculate that the lower sensitivity to cigarette prices among Ukraine population is caused by wide price variation allowing smokers to avoid a price increase by brand substitution as well as by low costs of cigarettes, high social acceptance of smoking and limited effort to control tobacco use in Ukraine. Narrowing the cigarette price choices and increasing cigarette prices above the level of inflation and income growth by adopting the appropriate tax policy would likely increase the effectiveness of this tool for controlling the smoking rate in Ukraine as well as yield additional budget revenue gains. In addition, imposing advertising restriction may further help reducing the smoking prevalence.
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Mishra, Sharmistha; Mountain, Elisa; Pickles, Michael; Vickerman, Peter; Shastri, Suresh; Gilks, Charles; Dhingra, Nandini K; Washington, Reynold; Becker, Marissa L; Blanchard, James F; Alary, Michel; Boily, Marie-Claude
2014-01-01
To compare the potential population-level impact of expanding antiretroviral treatment (ART) in HIV epidemics concentrated among female sex workers (FSWs) and clients, with and without existing condom-based FSW interventions. Mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission in south India. We simulated HIV epidemics in three districts to assess the 10-year impact of existing ART programs (ART eligibility at CD4 cell count ≤350) beyond that achieved with high condom use, and the incremental benefit of expanding ART by either increasing ART eligibility, improving access to care, or prioritizing ART expansion to FSWs/clients. Impact was estimated in the total population (including FSWs and clients). In the presence of existing condom-based interventions, existing ART programs (medium-to-good coverage) were predicted to avert 11-28% of remaining HIV infections between 2014 and 2024. Increasing eligibility to all risk groups prevented an incremental 1-15% over existing ART programs, compared with 29-53% when maximizing access to all risk groups. If there was no condom-based intervention, and only poor ART coverage, then expanding ART prevented a larger absolute number but a smaller relative fraction of HIV infections for every additional person-year of ART. Across districts and baseline interventions, for every additional person-year of treatment, prioritizing access to FSWs was most efficient (and resource saving), followed by prioritizing access to FSWs and clients. The relative and absolute benefit of ART expansion depends on baseline condom use, ART coverage, and epidemic size. In south India, maximizing FSWs' access to care, followed by maximizing clients' access are the most efficient ways to expand ART for HIV prevention, across baseline intervention context.
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Healthier School Environment Leads to Decreases in Childhood Obesity – The Kearney Nebraska Story
Heelan, Kate A.; Bartee, R. Todd; Nihiser, Allison; Sherry, Bettylou
2016-01-01
Background Schools play a role in addressing childhood obesity by implementing healthy eating and physical activity strategies. The primary aim of this case study was to describe prevalence of overweight and obesity among elementary school students in a rural Mid-western community between 2006 and 2012. The secondary aim was to use a novel approach called “population dose” to retrospectively evaluate the impact dose of each strategy implemented and its estimated potential population level impact on changes in overweight and obesity. Methods Weight and height were directly measured annually beginning in January 2006 to assess weight status, using body mass index (kg·m2), for all kindergarten – fifth grade students (N ≈ 2,400 per year). Multiple evidence-based strategies were implemented in nine schools to increase physical activity and healthy eating behaviors. BMI reporting and revised school meal programs were implemented district-wide. Comprehensive school physical activity programs (CSPAP), school food environment, and supportive/promotional strategies were implemented at individual schools. Results The absolute change in prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 95th percentile) decreased from 16.4% to 13.9%, indicating a 15.2% relative change in prevalence of obesity in 6 years. There was an inverse relationship between the number of strategies implemented and prevalence of overweight and obesity over time. Conclusions District and school-level approaches have the potential to impact childhood obesity. Schools can successfully implement strategies to address overweight and obesity, but the extent of implementation between schools may vary. Population dose analysis can be used to estimate impact of clusters of strategies to address overweight/obesity. PMID:26440386
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Mannocci, Laura; Roberts, Jason J; Miller, David L; Halpin, Patrick N
2017-06-01
As human activities expand beyond national jurisdictions to the high seas, there is an increasing need to consider anthropogenic impacts to species inhabiting these waters. The current scarcity of scientific observations of cetaceans in the high seas impedes the assessment of population-level impacts of these activities. We developed plausible density estimates to facilitate a quantitative assessment of anthropogenic impacts on cetacean populations in these waters. Our study region extended from a well-surveyed region within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone into a large region of the western North Atlantic sparsely surveyed for cetaceans. We modeled densities of 15 cetacean taxa with available line transect survey data and habitat covariates and extrapolated predictions to sparsely surveyed regions. We formulated models to reduce the extent of extrapolation beyond covariate ranges, and constrained them to model simple and generalizable relationships. To evaluate confidence in the predictions, we mapped where predictions were made outside sampled covariate ranges, examined alternate models, and compared predicted densities with maps of sightings from sources that could not be integrated into our models. Confidence levels in model results depended on the taxon and geographic area and highlighted the need for additional surveying in environmentally distinct areas. With application of necessary caution, our density estimates can inform management needs in the high seas, such as the quantification of potential cetacean interactions with military training exercises, shipping, fisheries, and deep-sea mining and be used to delineate areas of special biological significance in international waters. Our approach is generally applicable to other marine taxa and geographic regions for which management will be implemented but data are sparse. © 2016 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.
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Impact of the JUPITER trial on statin prescribing for primary prevention.
Teng, Jennifer F T; Gomes, Tara; Camacho, Ximena; Grundy, Scott; Juurlink, David N; Mamdani, Muhammad M
2014-01-01
As the Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin (JUPITER) trial identified a new population of individuals with cholesterol levels below traditional treatment thresholds but with elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels who may benefit from primary prevention with statin therapy, we sought to evaluate the impact of this trial on the incident prescription rates of rosuvastatin alone as well as all statins in a primary prevention population. Population-based, cross-sectional time-series analysis. Administrative health care databases in Ontario, Canada. A total of 299,809 incident statin users 66 years or older were identified during the study period, from January 1, 2003, to March 31, 2011, who were prescribed statin therapy for primary prevention. We evaluated the incident rate of rosuvastatin and all statin use during each quarter of the study period. Overall, no significant trends in all incident statin use were observed (p=0.99). Furthermore, no significant differences were observed in incident rates of rosuvastatin (p=0.21) or all statin (p=0.41) use after the publication of the JUPITER trial. Despite the lack of impact of the JUPITER trial on rosuvastatin or all statin utilization, the relative market share of rosuvastatin increased from 9% to 65% over the study period. The publication of the JUPITER trial did not significantly affect trends in overall statin and rosuvastatin prescribing patterns for primary prevention in this study. Increases in the relative market share of rosuvastatin may be attributed to the impact of the pharmaceutical industry on prescribing patterns. Our results highlight the need to further improve the integration of evidence-based prescribing into cost-effective clinical practice. © 2013 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.
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Khan, Farhan R; Irving, Jennifer R; Bury, Nicolas R; Hogstrand, Christer
2011-03-01
The River Hayle, Cornwall, UK exhibits pronounced Cu and Zn concentration gradients which were used to compare the metal handling abilities of two populations of Gammarus pulex (Crustacea: Amphipoda). One population was native to the Hayle region (Drym) and presumably has been historically impacted by elevated Cu and Zn levels, whilst naïve gammarids were collected from the River Cray, Kent, UK. Both populations were subject to a 32 day in situ exposure at four R. Hayle sites (Drym, Godolphin, Relubbus and St. Erth). Mortality (LT50), Cu and Zn accumulation and sub-cellular distribution, and oxidative stress (malondialdehyde production) increased with the expected Cu and Zn bioavailabilities at the four sites (i.e. Godolphin>Relubbus>St. Erth>Drym). The naïve population experienced greater metal induced effects in terms of Cu and Zn accumulation, oxidative stress responses and lower LT50s. Analysis of Cu and Zn sub-cellular distribution, however, revealed no significant differences in metal handling. In both populations each metal was localised predominantly to the sub-cellular fraction containing metal bound to metallothionein-like proteins (MTLP) or that holding both metal-rich granules (MRG) and exoskeleton, MTLP and MRG binding being indicative of metal detoxification. However, a greater capacity for detoxified metal storage is not a mechanism implicated in the perceived tolerance of the historically impacted gammarids. Instead our results suggest that the historically impacted population was adapted for lower uptake of Cu and Zn leading to lower bioaccumulation, stress response and ultimately mortality. These results demonstrate not only the usefulness of the in situ methodology, but also that differences in population exposure history can cause significant differences in metal responses during exposure at higher concentrations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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An integral projection model with YY-males and application to evaluating grass carp control
Erickson, Richard A.; Eager, Eric A.; Brey, Marybeth; Hansen, Michael J.; Kocovsky, Patrick
2017-01-01
Invasive fish species disrupt ecosystems and cause economic damage. Several methods have been discussed to control populations of invasive fish including the release of YY-males. YY-males are fish that have 2 male chromosomes compared to a XY-male. When YY-males mate, they only produce male (XY) offspring. This decreases the female proportion of the population and can, in theory, eradicate local populations by biasing the sex-ratio. YY-males have been used as a population control tool for brook trout in montane streams and lakes in Idaho, USA. The YY-male control method has been discussed for grass carp in Lake Erie, North America. We developed and presented an integral projection model for grass carp to model the use of YY-males as a control method for populations in this lake. Using only the YY-male control method, we found that high levels of YY-males would need to be release annually to control the species. Specifically, these levels were the same order of magnitude as the baseline adult population (e.g., 1000 YY-males needed to be released annual for 20 years to control a baseline adult population of 2500 grass carp). These levels may not be reasonable or obtainable for fisheries managers given the impacts of YY-males on aquatic vegetation and other constraints of natural resource management.
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PCB pollution continues to impact populations of orcas and other dolphins in European waters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jepson, Paul D.; Deaville, Rob; Barber, Jonathan L.; Aguilar, Àlex; Borrell, Asunción; Murphy, Sinéad; Barry, Jon; Brownlow, Andrew; Barnett, James; Berrow, Simon; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Davison, Nicholas J.; Ten Doeschate, Mariel; Esteban, Ruth; Ferreira, Marisa; Foote, Andrew D.; Genov, Tilen; Giménez, Joan; Loveridge, Jan; Llavona, Ángela; Martin, Vidal; Maxwell, David L.; Papachlimitzou, Alexandra; Penrose, Rod; Perkins, Matthew W.; Smith, Brian; de Stephanis, Renaud; Tregenza, Nick; Verborgh, Philippe; Fernandez, Antonio; Law, Robin J.
2016-01-01
Organochlorine (OC) pesticides and the more persistent polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have well-established dose-dependent toxicities to birds, fish and mammals in experimental studies, but the actual impact of OC pollutants on European marine top predators remains unknown. Here we show that several cetacean species have very high mean blubber PCB concentrations likely to cause population declines and suppress population recovery. In a large pan-European meta-analysis of stranded (n = 929) or biopsied (n = 152) cetaceans, three out of four species:- striped dolphins (SDs), bottlenose dolphins (BNDs) and killer whales (KWs) had mean PCB levels that markedly exceeded all known marine mammal PCB toxicity thresholds. Some locations (e.g. western Mediterranean Sea, south-west Iberian Peninsula) are global PCB “hotspots” for marine mammals. Blubber PCB concentrations initially declined following a mid-1980s EU ban, but have since stabilised in UK harbour porpoises and SDs in the western Mediterranean Sea. Some small or declining populations of BNDs and KWs in the NE Atlantic were associated with low recruitment, consistent with PCB-induced reproductive toxicity. Despite regulations and mitigation measures to reduce PCB pollution, their biomagnification in marine food webs continues to cause severe impacts among cetacean top predators in European seas.
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Multiscale Spatial Modeling of Human Exposure from Local Sources to Global Intake.
Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier
2018-01-16
Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals, are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea, an innovative multiscale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties are expressed as the evolution of the population intake fraction through inhalation and ingestion as a function of the distance from sources. For substances with atmospheric half-lives longer than a week, less than 20% of the global population intake through inhalation (median of 126 emission scenarios) can occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ∼10 000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route which locations minimize global intakes. Maps of global intake fractions associated with each emission location show clear patterns associated with population and agriculture production densities.
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PCB pollution continues to impact populations of orcas and other dolphins in European waters.
Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; Barber, Jonathan L; Aguilar, Àlex; Borrell, Asunción; Murphy, Sinéad; Barry, Jon; Brownlow, Andrew; Barnett, James; Berrow, Simon; Cunningham, Andrew A; Davison, Nicholas J; Ten Doeschate, Mariel; Esteban, Ruth; Ferreira, Marisa; Foote, Andrew D; Genov, Tilen; Giménez, Joan; Loveridge, Jan; Llavona, Ángela; Martin, Vidal; Maxwell, David L; Papachlimitzou, Alexandra; Penrose, Rod; Perkins, Matthew W; Smith, Brian; de Stephanis, Renaud; Tregenza, Nick; Verborgh, Philippe; Fernandez, Antonio; Law, Robin J
2016-01-14
Organochlorine (OC) pesticides and the more persistent polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have well-established dose-dependent toxicities to birds, fish and mammals in experimental studies, but the actual impact of OC pollutants on European marine top predators remains unknown. Here we show that several cetacean species have very high mean blubber PCB concentrations likely to cause population declines and suppress population recovery. In a large pan-European meta-analysis of stranded (n = 929) or biopsied (n = 152) cetaceans, three out of four species:- striped dolphins (SDs), bottlenose dolphins (BNDs) and killer whales (KWs) had mean PCB levels that markedly exceeded all known marine mammal PCB toxicity thresholds. Some locations (e.g. western Mediterranean Sea, south-west Iberian Peninsula) are global PCB "hotspots" for marine mammals. Blubber PCB concentrations initially declined following a mid-1980s EU ban, but have since stabilised in UK harbour porpoises and SDs in the western Mediterranean Sea. Some small or declining populations of BNDs and KWs in the NE Atlantic were associated with low recruitment, consistent with PCB-induced reproductive toxicity. Despite regulations and mitigation measures to reduce PCB pollution, their biomagnification in marine food webs continues to cause severe impacts among cetacean top predators in European seas.
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PCB pollution continues to impact populations of orcas and other dolphins in European waters
Jepson, Paul D.; Deaville, Rob; Barber, Jonathan L.; Aguilar, Àlex; Borrell, Asunción; Murphy, Sinéad; Barry, Jon; Brownlow, Andrew; Barnett, James; Berrow, Simon; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Davison, Nicholas J.; ten Doeschate, Mariel; Esteban, Ruth; Ferreira, Marisa; Foote, Andrew D.; Genov, Tilen; Giménez, Joan; Loveridge, Jan; Llavona, Ángela; Martin, Vidal; Maxwell, David L.; Papachlimitzou, Alexandra; Penrose, Rod; Perkins, Matthew W.; Smith, Brian; de Stephanis, Renaud; Tregenza, Nick; Verborgh, Philippe; Fernandez, Antonio; Law, Robin J.
2016-01-01
Organochlorine (OC) pesticides and the more persistent polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have well-established dose-dependent toxicities to birds, fish and mammals in experimental studies, but the actual impact of OC pollutants on European marine top predators remains unknown. Here we show that several cetacean species have very high mean blubber PCB concentrations likely to cause population declines and suppress population recovery. In a large pan-European meta-analysis of stranded (n = 929) or biopsied (n = 152) cetaceans, three out of four species:- striped dolphins (SDs), bottlenose dolphins (BNDs) and killer whales (KWs) had mean PCB levels that markedly exceeded all known marine mammal PCB toxicity thresholds. Some locations (e.g. western Mediterranean Sea, south-west Iberian Peninsula) are global PCB “hotspots” for marine mammals. Blubber PCB concentrations initially declined following a mid-1980s EU ban, but have since stabilised in UK harbour porpoises and SDs in the western Mediterranean Sea. Some small or declining populations of BNDs and KWs in the NE Atlantic were associated with low recruitment, consistent with PCB-induced reproductive toxicity. Despite regulations and mitigation measures to reduce PCB pollution, their biomagnification in marine food webs continues to cause severe impacts among cetacean top predators in European seas. PMID:26766430
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Microbial Diversity of Impact-Generated Habitats
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pontefract, Alexandra; Osinski, Gordon R.; Cockell, Charles S.; Southam, Gordon; McCausland, Phil J. A.; Umoh, Joseph; Holdsworth, David W.
2016-10-01
Impact-generated lithologies have recently been identified as viable and important microbial habitats, especially within cold and arid regions such as the polar deserts on Earth. These unique habitats provide protection from environmental stressors, such as freeze-thaw events, desiccation, and UV radiation, and act to trap aerially deposited detritus within the fissures and pore spaces, providing necessary nutrients for endoliths. This study provides the first culture-independent analysis of the microbial community structure within impact-generated lithologies in a Mars analog environment, involving the analysis of 44,534 16S rRNA sequences from an assemblage of 21 rock samples that comprises three shock metamorphism categories. We find that species diversity increases (H = 2.4-4.6) with exposure to higher shock pressures, which leads to the development of three distinct populations. In each population, Actinobacteria were the most abundant (41%, 65%, and 59%), and the dominant phototrophic taxa came from the Chloroflexi. Calculated porosity (a function of shock metamorphism) for these samples correlates (R2 = 0.62) with inverse Simpson indices, accounting for overlap in populations in the higher shock levels. The results of our study show that microbial diversity is tied to the amount of porosity in the target substrate (as a function of shock metamorphism), resulting in the formation of distinct microbial populations.