Risks to Wildlife Populations from Chemicals and Other Stressors

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will review the history of risk assessment approaches for evaluating risks to wildlife populations and current research to improve methods for understanding population-level effects. The emphasis will be on issues related to pesticides, but other examples will ...

Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

PubMed

Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

2018-02-01

Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

PROJECTING POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE OF PURPLE SEA URCHINS TO LEAD CONTAMINATION FOR AN ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an ecological risk assessment case study at the Portsmouth naval Shipyard (PNS), Kittery, Maine, USA, the population level effects of lead exposure to purple sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, were investigated using a stage-classified matrix population model. The model d...

Texting for Health: An Evaluation of a Population Approach to Type 2 Diabetes Risk Reduction With a Personalized Message.

PubMed

Khurshid, Anjum; Brown, Lisanne; Mukherjee, Snigdha; Abebe, Nebeyou; Kulick, David

2015-11-01

txt4health is an innovative, 14-week, interactive, population-based mobile health program for individuals at risk of type 2 diabetes, developed under the Beacon Community Program in the Greater New Orleans, La., area. A comprehensive social marketing campaign sought to enroll hard-to-reach, at-risk populations using a combination of mass media and face-to-face engagement in faith-based and retail environments. Little is known about the effectiveness of social marketing for mobile technology application in the general population. A systematic evaluation of the campaign identified successes and barriers to implementing a population-based mobile health program. Face-to-face engagement helped increase program enrollment after the initial launch; otherwise, enrollment leveled off over time. Results show positive trends in reaching target populations and in the use of mobile phones to record personal health information and set goals for reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes. The lessons from the txt4health campaign can help inform the development and programmatic strategies to provide a person-level intervention using a population-level approach for individuals at risk for diabetes as well as aid in chronic disease management.

The ACTIVATE study: results from a group-randomized controlled trial comparing a traditional worksite health promotion program with an activated consumer program.

PubMed

Terry, Paul E; Fowles, Jinnet Briggs; Xi, Min; Harvey, Lisa

2011-01-01

PURPOSE. This study compares a traditional worksite-based health promotion program with an activated consumer program and a control program DESIGN. Group randomized controlled trial with 18-month intervention. SETTING. Two large Midwestern companies. SUBJECTS. Three hundred and twenty employees (51% response). INTERVENTION. The traditional health promotion intervention offered population-level campaigns on physical activity, nutrition, and stress management. The activated consumer intervention included population-level campaigns for evaluating health information, choosing a health benefits plan, and understanding the risks of not taking medications as prescribed. The personal development intervention (control group) offered information on hobbies. The interventions also offered individual-level coaching for high risk individuals in both active intervention groups. MEASURES. Health risk status, general health status, consumer activation, productivity, and the ability to evaluate health information. ANALYSIS. Multivariate analyses controlled for baseline differences among the study groups. RESULTS. At the population level, compared with baseline performance, the traditional health promotion intervention improved health risk status, consumer activation, and the ability to recognize reliable health websites. Compared with baseline performance, the activated consumer intervention improved consumer activation, productivity, and the ability to recognize reliable health websites. At the population level, however, only the activated consumer intervention improved any outcome more than the control group did; that outcome was consumer activation. At the individual level for high risk individuals, both traditional health coaching and activated consumer coaching positively affected health risk status and consumer activation. In addition, both coaching interventions improved participant ability to recognize a reliable health website. Consumer activation coaching also significantly improved self-reported productivity. CONCLUSION. An effective intervention can change employee health risk status and activation both at the population level and at the individual high risk level. However, program engagement at the population level was low, indicating that additional promotional strategies, such as greater use of incentives, need to be examined. Less intensive coaching can be as effective as more intensive, albeit both interventions produced modest behavior change and retention in the consumer activation arm was most difficult. Further research is needed concerning recruitment and retention methods that will enable populations to realize the full potential of activated consumerism.

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: A population-based multilevel analysis

PubMed Central

DeFranco, Emily A; Lian, Min; Muglia, Louis A; Schootman, Mario

2008-01-01

Background Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Methods Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989–1997). We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990). Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty) was the reference group. Results PTB < 35 weeks occurred in 24,490 pregnancies (3.9%). The rate of PTB < 35 weeks was 2.8% in counties within the lowest quartile of poverty and increased through the 4th quartile (4.9%), p < 0.0001. High county-level poverty was significantly associated with PTB risk. PTB risk (< 35 weeks) was increased for women who resided in counties within the highest quartile of poverty, adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35), with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (< 32 weeks), adjOR 1.27 (95% CI 1.06, 1.52). Conclusion Women residing in socioeconomically deprived areas are at increased risk of preterm birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies. PMID:18793437

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: a population-based multilevel analysis.

PubMed

DeFranco, Emily A; Lian, Min; Muglia, Louis A; Schootman, Mario

2008-09-15

Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989-1997). We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990). Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty) was the reference group. PTB < 35 weeks occurred in 24,490 pregnancies (3.9%). The rate of PTB < 35 weeks was 2.8% in counties within the lowest quartile of poverty and increased through the 4th quartile (4.9%), p < 0.0001. High county-level poverty was significantly associated with PTB risk. PTB risk (< 35 weeks) was increased for women who resided in counties within the highest quartile of poverty, adjusted odds ratio (adj OR) 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35), with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (< 32 weeks), adj OR 1.27 (95% CI 1.06, 1.52). Women residing in socioeconomically deprived areas are at increased risk of preterm birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies.

Risk perception and level of knowledge of diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Menchaca-Armenta, Imelda; Ocampo-Torres, Moisés; Hernández-Gómez, Arnulfo; Zamora-Cerritos, Karen

2018-03-08

Diseases caused by viruses such as dengue, chikungunya and zika are mosquito-borne diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti. We performed a cross-sectional study of healthcare personnel and the general population using questionnaires to identify the level of knowledge, attitudes and practices, and risk perception for dengue, chikungunya and zika. A total of 248 questionnaires were applied, 63.3% to healthcare personnel and 36.7% to the general population. Of the healthcare personnel, 53% were men, and in the general population 74% were women. Nahuatl and Spanish were spoken by both, healthcare personnel (28%) and the general population (23%). The level of knowledge, attitudes and practices and risk perception of the population and personnel showed significant differences (p<0.05). Among healthcare personnel, nurses and vector operating staff had the lowest level of knowledge. On the other hand, the questions with the lowest scores were 1) symptoms of Zika in both groups, 2) circulating dengue serotypes in healthcare personnel and 3) symptoms of chikungunya in the general population. The results of this work allow us to identify information gaps in which knowledge, attitudes and practices, and risk perception need to be increased.

Which population groups are most unaware of CVD risks associated with sitting time?

PubMed

Duncan, Mitch J; Gilson, Nicholas; Vandelanotte, Corneel

2014-08-01

Prolonged sitting is an emerging risk factor for poor health yet few studies have examined awareness of the risks associated with sitting behaviours. This study identifies the population subgroups with the highest levels of unawareness regarding the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks associated with sitting behaviours. Adults (n=1256) living in Queensland, Australia completed a telephone-based survey in 2011, analysis conducted in 2013. The survey assessed participant's socio-demographic characteristics, physical activity, sitting behaviours and awareness of CVD risks associated with three sitting behaviours: 1) sitting for prolonged periods, 2), sitting for prolonged periods whilst also engaging in regular physical activity, and 3) breaking up periods of prolonged sitting with short activity breaks. Population sub-groups with the highest levels of unawareness were identified based on socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics using signal detection analysis. Unawareness ranged from 23.3% to 67.0%. Age was the most important variable in differentiating awareness levels; younger adults had higher levels of unawareness. Body mass index, physical activity, TV viewing, employment status and time spent at work also identified population sub-groups. Unawareness of CVD risk for prolonged sitting was moderately high overall. Younger adults had high levels of unawareness on all of the outcomes examined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Placental Growth Factor Levels in Populations with High Versus Low Risk for Cardiovascular Disease and Stressful Physiological Environments such as Microgravity: A Pilot Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundaresan, Alamelu; Mehta, Satish K.; Schlegel, Todd. T.; Russomano, Thais; Pierson, Duane L.; Mann, Vivek; Mansoor, Elvedina; Olamigoke, Loretta; Okoro, Elvis

2017-02-01

This pilot study compared placental growth factor (PIGF) levels in populations with high versus low risk for cardiovascular disease. Previous experiments from our laboratory (Sundaresan et al. 2005, 2009) revealed that the angiogenic factor PIGF was up regulated in modeled microgravity conditions in human lymphocytes leading to possible atherogenesis and pathogenesis in microgravity. Since the findings came from microgravity analog experiments, there is a strong link to its usefulness in the microgravity field as a biomarker. It is important to understand, that these findings came from both studies on expression levels of this cardiovascular marker in human lymphocytes in microgravity ( in vitro microgravity analog), and a follow up gene expression study in hind limb suspended mice ( in vivo microgravity analog). The relevance is enhanced because in life on earth, PIGF is an inflammatory biomarker for cardiovascular disease. Studies on the levels of PIGF would help to reduce the risk and prevention of heart failures in astronauts. If we can use this marker to predict and reduce the risk of cardiac events in astronauts and pilots, it would significantly help aerospace medicine operations. The investigations here confirmed that in a cardiovascular stressed population such as coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients, PIGF could be overexpressed. We desired to re-evaluate this marker in patients with cardiovascular disease in our own study. PIGF is a marker of inflammation and a predictor of short-term and long-term adverse outcome in ACS. In addition, elevated PIGF levels may be associated with increased risk for CAD.PIGF levels were determined in thirty-one patients undergoing cardiovascular catheterization for reasons other than ACS and in thirty-three low-risk asymptomatic subjects. Additional data on traditional cardiovascular risk factors for both populations were also compiled and compared. We found that PIGF levels were significantly higher in the high-risk population as compared to low-risk population. Also we were able to ascertain that PIGF levels were inversely correlated with HDL-cholesterol but directly correlated with the triglyceride levels. With further validation, PIGF may prove a useful addition to the armamentarium of noninvasive biomarkers for cardiovascular disease including a new area of stressful physiological conditions such as microgravity.

Knowledge of warning signs, presenting symptoms and risk factors of coronary heart disease among the population of Dubai and Northern Emirates in UAE: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Shehnaz, Syed Ilyas; Guruswami, Gomathi Kadayam; Ibrahim, Salwa Abdelzaher Mabrouk; Mustafa, Sana Abdul Jabbar

2017-01-01

Background: To evaluate the level of knowledge regarding warning signs, presenting symptoms and risk factors associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) among population of Dubai and Northern Emirates in UAE. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional survey of 1367 residents of Dubai and Northern Emirates was conducted using a self-administered questionnaire. Results: Respondents were classified into two groups: Young Adult Population (YAP; 18-24 years of age) and General Population (GP; 25 years and older). Majority of participants were males (56.7%) and of South Asian (57.5%) or Middle-Eastern (30.8%) ethnicity. Regarding presenting symptoms of CHD, chest pain was identified by around 80% of population, whereas pain in the left shoulder was recognized by 61% of GP and 44% of YAP. Atypical symptoms were poorly identified. Regarding risk factors, only one-fourth population knew that males were at higher risk compared to premenopausal females. Few knew that the risk increases in females after menopause and that the risk is higher for females who smoke and use oral contraceptives. 62% knew that the survivors of a heart attack are at high risk of recurrences. Except for tobacco smoke, hypercholesterolemia and hypertension, knowledge of other risk factors was not satisfactory. Older adults and females had comparatively higher level of knowledge. Conclusion: Knowledge level of many of the symptoms and risk factors of CHD is unsatisfactory. There is, therefore, a need to increase the awareness in the population of UAE. The knowledge gaps identified through this study can be addressed through health campaigns to increase the awareness about warning signs, symptoms and modifiable risk factors. . PMID:29181228

Effects of SNPs at newly identified lipids loci on blood lipid levels and risk of coronary heart disease in Chinese Han population: a case control study.

PubMed

Zhuang, Ke; Zhang, Wencai; Zhang, Xiaobo; Wu, Fangqin; Cheng, Longxian

2011-08-01

Associations between "lipid-related" candidate genes, blood lipid concentrations and coronary artery disease (CHD) risk are not clear. We aimed to investigate the effect of three newly identified lipids loci from genome-wide association studies on CHD and blood lipid levels in Chinese Han population. The genotypes of SNPs at three newly identified lipid loci and blood lipids concentrations were examined in 1360 CHD patients and 1360 age- and sex-frequency matched controls from an unrelated Chinese Han population. Allele T of rs16996148 occurred less frequently in CHD patients with the odds ratio (OR) being 0.64 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.81), after adjusting for conventional risk factors and was associated with a 33% decreased CHD risk (P<0.01) comparing with the major allele G. Individuals with GT genotype had the lowest CHD risk. No associations were found between the polymorphisms of other two loci with CHD risk and all three SNPs had no effect on lipid profile in this population. SNP rs16996148 on chromosome 19p13 is significantly associated with lower risk for CHD in Chinese Han population. However, it remains unresolved why these lipid-related loci had significantly less effects than the correspondingly expected effects on blood lipids levels in this population.

Women with high early pregnancy urinary iodine levels have an increased risk of hyperthyroid newborns: the population-based Generation R Study.

PubMed

Medici, Marco; Ghassabian, Akhgar; Visser, Willy; de Muinck Keizer-Schrama, Sabine M P F; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Visser, W Edward; Hooijkaas, Herbert; Hofman, Albert; Steegers, Eric A P; Bongers-Schokking, Jacoba J; Ross, H Alec; Tiemeier, Henning; Visser, Theo J; de Rijke, Yolanda B; Peeters, Robin P

2014-04-01

Iodine deficiency during pregnancy results in thyroid dysfunction and has been associated with adverse obstetric and foetal effects, leading to worldwide salt iodization programmes. As nowadays 69% of the world's population lives in iodine-sufficient regions, we investigated the effects of variation in iodine status on maternal and foetal thyroid (dys)function in an iodine-sufficient population. Urinary iodine, serum TSH, free T4 (FT4) and TPO-antibody levels were determined in early pregnancy (13·3 (1·9) week; mean (SD)) in 1098 women from the population-based Generation R Study. Newborn cord serum TSH and FT4 levels were determined at birth. The median urinary iodine level was 222·5 μg/l, indicating an iodine-sufficient population. 30·8% and 11·5% had urinary iodine levels <150 and >500 μg/l, respectively. When comparing mothers with urinary iodine levels <150 vs ≥150 μg/l, and >500 vs ≤500 μg/l, there were no differences in the risk of maternal increased or decreased TSH, hypothyroxinaemia or hyperthyroidism. Mothers with urinary iodine levels >500 μg/l had a higher risk of a newborn with decreased cord TSH levels (5·6 ± 1·4 (mean ± SE) vs 2·1 ± 0·5%, P = 0·04), as well as a higher risk of a hyperthyroid newborn (3·1 ± 0·9 vs 0·6 ± 0·3%, P = 0·02). These mothers had newborns with higher cord FT4 levels (21·7 ± 0·3 vs 21·0 ± 0·1 pm, P = 0·04). Maternal urinary iodine levels <150 μg/l were not associated with newborn thyroid dysfunction. In an iodine-sufficient population, higher maternal urinary iodine levels are associated with an increased risk of a hyperthyroid newborn. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

PubMed Central

Hussain, S. Monira; Oldenburg, Brian; Zoungas, Sophia; Tonkin, Andrew M.

2013-01-01

Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk. PMID:24163770

Evaluation of the risk of noise-induced hearing loss among unscreened male industrial workers.

PubMed

Prince, Mary M; Gilbert, Stephen J; Smith, Randall J; Stayner, Leslie T

2003-02-01

Variability in background risk and distribution of various risk factors for hearing loss may explain some of the diversity in excess risk of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). This paper examines the impact of various risk factors on excess risk estimates of NIHL using data from the 1968-1972 NIOSH Occupational Noise and Hearing Survey (ONHS). Previous analyses of a subset of these data focused on 1172 highly "screened" workers. In the current analysis, an additional 894 white males (609 noise-exposed and 285 controls), who were excluded for various reasons (i.e., nonoccupational noise exposure, otologic or medical conditions affecting hearing, prior occupational noise exposure) have been added 2066) to assess excess risk of noise-induced material impairment in an unscreened population. Data are analyzed by age, duration of exposure, and sound level (8-h TWA) for four different definitions of noise-induced hearing impairment, defined as the binaural pure-tone average (PTA) hearing threshold level greater than 25 dB for the following frequencies: (a) 1-4 kHz (PTA1234), (b) 1-3 kHz (PTA123), (c) 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz (PTA512), and (d) 3, 4, and 6 kHz (PTA346). Results indicate that populations with higher background risks of hearing loss may show lower excess risks attributable to noise relative to highly screened populations. Estimates of lifetime excess risk of hearing impairment were found to be significantly different between screened and unscreened population for noise levels greater than 90 dBA. Predicted age-related risk of material hearing impairment in the ONHS unscreened population was similar to that predicted from Annex B and C of ANSI S3.44 for ages less than 60 years. Results underscore the importance of understanding differential risk patterns for hearing loss and the use of appropriate reference (control) populations when evaluating risk of noise-induced hearing impairment among contemporary industrial populations.

Australian fitness professionals' level of interest in engaging with high health-risk population subgroups: findings from a national survey.

PubMed

Bennie, J A; Thomas, G; Wiesner, G H; van Uffelen, J G Z; Khan, A; Kolbe-Alexander, T; Vergeer, I; Biddle, S J H

2018-07-01

Fitness industry professionals (personal trainers, group instructors) may have a role in health promotion, particularly when working with subgroups with known health risks (e.g. older adults, obese). The aim of this study is to examine fitness professionals' level of interest in engaging with high-risk populations. Cross-sectional evaluation of a national survey. In 2014, 9100 Australian registered exercise professionals were invited to complete an online survey. Respondents reported their level of interest in engaging with nine health-risk population subgroups. A multivariable logistic regression analysis assessed the odds of being classified as having a 'low level' of interest in training high health-risk subgroups, adjusting for demographic and fitness industry-related factors. Of 1185 respondents (aged 17-72 years), 31.1% reported having a 'high level' of interest in training high health-risk subgroups. The highest level of interest was among 'obese clients' and 'adults (18-64 years) with chronic health conditions'. In the adjusted analysis, males (odds ratio [OR], 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-2.25) and those in urban settings (OR, 2.26, 95% CI: 1.54-3.37) were more likely to have a 'low level' of interest. Fitness professionals have a modest level of interest in training high health-risk subgroups. In addition to the development of strategies to increase interest, research should examine whether fitness professionals are able to safely prescribe exercise to high health-risk subgroups. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives

EPA Science Inventory

The value of models that link organism-level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERA) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism-level en...

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study

PubMed Central

Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Background Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients’ multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country’s total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. Methods and results A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30–84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each ‘synthetic’ person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. Conclusions We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere. PMID:28384217

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study.

PubMed

Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.

Urbanisation and incidence of psychosis and depression: follow-up study of 4.4 million women and men in Sweden.

PubMed

Sundquist, Kristina; Frank, Gölin; Sundquist, Jan

2004-04-01

Previous studies of differences in mental health between urban and rural populations are inconsistent. To examine whether a high level of urbanisation is associated with increased incidence rates of psychosis and depression, after adjustment for age, marital status, education and immigrant status. Follow-up study of the total Swedish population aged 25-64 years with respect to first hospital admission for psychosis or depression. Level of urbanisation was defined by population density and divided into quintiles. With increasing levels of urbanisation the incidence rates of psychosis and depression rose. In the full models, those living in the most densely populated areas (quintile 5) had 68-77% more risk of developing psychosis and 12-20% more risk of developing depression than the reference group (quintile 1). A high level of urbanisation is associated with increased risk of psychosis and depression for both women and men.

Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

PubMed

Simarro, Pere P; Cecchi, Giuliano; Franco, José R; Paone, Massimo; Diarra, Abdoulaye; Ruiz-Postigo, José Antonio; Fèvre, Eric M; Mattioli, Raffaele C; Jannin, Jean G

2012-01-01

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population. Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2) are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported. Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Béchaux, Camille, E-mail: Camille.bechaux@anses.fr; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan

As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded inmore » the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.« less

QUALIFYING VARIATION IN RISKS ACROSS SPACE AND TIME TO POPULATIONS OF THE COMMON LOON

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a larger project to evaluate methods for assessing risks to wildlife populations we are investigating patterns of mortality in populations of the common loon (Gavia immer) in New England. Regionally, loon populations have declined from historic levels and despite rece...

Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence in Deltas: Estimating Future Flood Risk Through Integrated Natural and Human System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2016-12-01

Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We present a new delta flood exposure and risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea-level rise. We have applied this framework to a set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major river deltas to quantify how contemporary risks vary across delta systems. The risk modeling framework incorporates upstream sediment flux and coastal land subsidence models, global empirical estimates of contemporary storm surge exposure, and population distribution and growth. Future scenarios are used to test the impacts on coastal flood risk of upstream dam construction, coastal population growth, accelerated sea-level rise, and enhanced storm surge. Results suggest a wide range of outcomes across different delta systems within each scenario. Deltas in highly engineered watersheds (Mississippi, Rhine) exhibit less sensitivity to increased dams due to saturation of sediment retention effects, though planned or under-construction dams are expected to have a substantial impact in the Yangtze, Irrawaddy, and Magdalena deltas. Population growth and sea-level rise are expected to be the dominant drivers of increased human risk in most deltas, with important exceptions in several countries, particularly China, where population are forecast to contract over the next several decades.

Organism and population-level ecological models for chemical risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological risk assessment typically focuses on animal populations as endpoints for regulatory ecotoxicology. Scientists at USEPA are developing models for animal populations exposed to a wide range of chemicals from pesticides to emerging contaminants. Modeled taxa include aquat...

Comparison of plasma levels of obesity-related biomarkers among Japanese populations in Tokyo, Japan, São Paulo, Brazil, and Hawaii, USA.

PubMed

Iwasaki, Motoki; Le Marchand, Loïc; Franke, Adrian A; Hamada, Gerson Shigeaki; Miyajima, Nelson Tomio; Sharma, Sangita; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2016-01-01

Although Japanese in Japan and the USA are high-risk populations for colorectal cancer, the prevalence of obesity, one of the established risk factors for this disease, is low in these populations compared with other high-risk populations. To understand this inconsistency, we compared plasma obesity-related biomarkers in cross-sectional studies carried out in Tokyo, São Paulo, and Hawaii. We measured plasma levels of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein (IGFBP)-1, IGFBP-3, C-peptide, adiponectin, leptin, tumor necrosis factor-α, and interleukin-6 by immunoassay and total C-reactive protein, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides using a clinical chemistry autoanalyzer. A total of 299 participants were included in the present analysis, comprising 142 Japanese in Tokyo, 79 Japanese Brazilians in São Paulo, and 78 Japanese Americans in Hawaii. We found significantly lower plasma levels of C-peptide and IGF-I in Japanese in Tokyo than in Japanese Americans, and lower levels of leptin and triglycerides and higher levels of adiponectin, IGFBP-3, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in Japanese in Tokyo than in the other two populations. We also observed a significantly higher plasma IGFBP-1 level in Japanese Brazilians, and lower plasma levels of total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein in Japanese Americans than in the other two populations. We observed significant differences in obesity-related biomarkers between the three Japanese populations. If our results are confirmed, the risk of colorectal cancer predicted on the basis of these biomarkers would be lowest for Japanese in Tokyo, followed by Japanese Brazilians and Japanese Americans.

Comparison of plasma levels of obesity-related biomarkers among Japanese populations in Tokyo, Japan, São Paulo, Brazil, and Hawaii, USA

PubMed Central

Le Marchand, Loïc; Franke, Adrian A.; Hamada, Gerson Shigeaki; Miyajima, Nelson Tomio; Sharma, Sangita; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2016-01-01

Although Japanese in Japan and the USA are high-risk populations for colorectal cancer, the prevalence of obesity, one of the established risk factors for this disease, is low in these populations compared with other high-risk populations. To understand this inconsistency, we compared plasma obesity-related biomarkers in cross-sectional studies carried out in Tokyo, São Paulo, and Hawaii. We measured plasma levels of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein (IGFBP)-1, IGFBP-3, C-peptide, adiponectin, leptin, tumor necrosis factor-α, and interleukin-6 by immunoassay and total C-reactive protein, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides using a clinical chemistry autoanalyzer. A total of 299 participants were included in the present analysis, comprising 142 Japanese in Tokyo, 79 Japanese Brazilians in São Paulo, and 78 Japanese Americans in Hawaii. We found significantly lower plasma levels of C-peptide and IGF-I in Japanese in Tokyo than in Japanese Americans, and lower levels of leptin and triglycerides and higher levels of adiponectin, IGFBP-3, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in Japanese in Tokyo than in the other two populations. We also observed a significantly higher plasma IGFBP-1 level in Japanese Brazilians, and lower plasma levels of total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein in Japanese Americans than in the other two populations. We observed significant differences in obesity-related biomarkers between the three Japanese populations. If our results are confirmed, the risk of colorectal cancer predicted on the basis of these biomarkers would be lowest for Japanese in Tokyo, followed by Japanese Brazilians and Japanese Americans. PMID:25714650

Association Between Educational Level and Risk of Cancer in HIV-infected Individuals and the Background Population: Population-based Cohort Study 1995-2011.

PubMed

Legarth, Rebecca; Omland, Lars H; Dalton, Susanne O; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S; Pedersen, Court; Pedersen, Gitte; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels

2015-11-15

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have increased risk of cancer. To our knowledge, no previous study has examined the impact of socioeconomic position on risk and prognosis of cancer in HIV infection. Population-based cohort-study, including HIV-infected individuals diagnosed (without intravenous drug abuse or hepatitis C infection) (n = 3205), and a background population cohort matched by age, gender, and country of birth (n = 22 435) were analyzed. Educational level (low or high) and cancer events were identified in Danish national registers. Cumulative incidences, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and survival using Kaplan-Meier methods were estimated. Low educational level was associated with increased risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to population controls: all (adjusted-IRRs: 1.4 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-1.7] vs 1.1 [95% CI, .9-1.2]), tobacco- and alcohol-related (2.1 [95% CI, 1.3-3.4] vs 1.3 [95% CI, 1.1-1.6]), and other (1.7 [95% CI, 1.1-2.8] vs 0.9 [95% CI, .7-1.0]). Educational level was not associated with infection-related or ill-defined cancers. One-year-survival was not associated with educational level, but HIV-infected individuals with low educational level had lower 5-year-survival following infection-related and ill-defined cancers. Education is associated with risk and prognosis of some cancers in HIV infection, and diverges from what is observed in the background population. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Low-serum GTA-446 anti-inflammatory fatty acid levels as a new risk factor for colon cancer.

PubMed

Ritchie, Shawn A; Tonita, Jon; Alvi, Riaz; Lehotay, Denis; Elshoni, Hoda; Myat, Su-; McHattie, James; Goodenowe, Dayan B

2013-01-15

Gastrointestinal tract acid-446 (GTA-446) is a long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid present in the serum. A reduction of GTA-446 levels in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients has been reported previously. Our study compared GTA-446 levels in subjects diagnosed with CRC at the time of colonoscopy to the general population. Serum samples and pathology data were collected from 4,923 representative subjects undergoing colonoscopy and from 964 subjects from the general population. Serum GTA-446 levels were determined using a triple-quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry method. A low-serum GTA-446 level was based on the bottom tenth percentile of subjects with low risk based on age (40-49 years old) in the general population. Eighty-six percent of newly diagnosed CRC subjects (87% for stages 0-II and 85% for stages III-IV) showed low-serum GTA-446 levels. A significant increase in the CRC incidence rate with age was observed in subjects with low GTA-446 levels (p = 0.019), but not in subjects with normal levels (p = 0.86). The relative risk of CRC given a low GTA-446 level was the highest for subjects under age 50 (10.1, 95% confidence interval [C.I.] = 6.4-16.4 in the reference population, and 7.7, 95% C.I. = 4.4-14.1 in the colonoscopy population, both p < 0.0001), and declined with age thereafter. The CRC incidence rate in subjects undergoing colonoscopy with low GTA-446 levels was over six times higher than for subjects with normal GTA-446 levels and twice that of subjects with gastrointestinal symptoms. The results show that a low-serum GTA-446 level is a significant risk factor for CRC, and a sensitive predictor of early-stage disease. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

Promoting effects on reproduction increase population vulnerability of Daphnia magna.

PubMed

Agatz, Annika; Hammers-Wirtz, Monika; Gabsi, Faten; Ratte, Hans Toni; Brown, Colin D; Preuss, Thomas G

2012-07-01

Environmental risk assessment of chemicals is based on single species tests at the individual level with single compounds. However, the protection goal is the sustainability of a population, which faces several natural stressors and mixtures of chemicals in the environment. Therefore, experiments were undertaken to quantify the combined effects of chemicals with different modes of action on Daphnia magna populations. Populations continuously exposed to dispersogen A and at abundance equilibrium were treated with a 2-d pulse of p353-nonylphenol. In previous studies, dispersogen A was shown to act as a natural info-chemical, promoting the reproduction of daphnids (higher offspring quantity) coupled with reduced offspring fitness, whereas nonylphenol in pulsed-exposure caused size-selective mortality. Dispersogen A caused accelerated population growth to maximum abundance, shifted the population structure towards smaller individuals, and increased the population sensitivity to nonylphenol. The authors showed that a positive effect observed at the individual level can be transposed to a negative effect when monitored at the population level. So far, positive effects are not addressed in environmental risk assessment, and even in higher-tier testing, population structure is not quantified. Both factors indicate a potential mismatch between protection aim and risk assessment practice. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Spatial quantification of the world population potentially exposed to Zika virus.

PubMed

Alaniz, Alberto J; Bacigalupo, Antonella; Cattan, Pedro E

2017-06-01

Zika virus is an emerging Flaviviridae virus, which has spread rapidly in the last few years. It has raised concern because it has been associated with fetus microcephaly when pregnant women are infected. The main vector is the mosquito Aedes aegypti , distributed in tropical areas. Niche modelling techniques were used to estimate the potential distribution area of A. aegypti. This was overlapped with human population density, determining areas of potential transmission risk worldwide. Afterwards, we quantified the population at risk according to risk level. The vector transmission risk is distributed mainly in Asia and Oceania on the shores of the Indian Ocean. In America, the risk concentrates in the Atlantic coast of South America and in the Caribbean Sea shores in Central and North America. In Africa, the major risk is concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of Central and South Africa. The world population under high and very high risk levels includes 2.261 billion people. These results illustrate Zika virus risk at the global level and provide maps to target the prevention and control measures especially in areas with higher risk, in countries with less sanitation and poorer resources. Many countries without previous vector reports could become active transmission zones in the future, so vector surveillance should be implemented or reinforced in these areas. © The Author 2017; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Risk assessment for arsenic-contaminated groundwater along River Indus in Pakistan.

PubMed

Rabbani, Unaib; Mahar, Gohar; Siddique, Azhar; Fatmi, Zafar

2017-02-01

The study determined the risk zone and estimated the population at risk of adverse health effects for arsenic exposure along the bank of River Indus in Pakistan. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 216 randomly selected villages of one of the districts along River Indus. Wells of ten households from each village were selected to measure arsenic levels. The location of wells was identified using global positioning system device, and spatial variations of the groundwater contamination were assessed using geographical information system tools. Using layers of contaminated drinking water wells according to arsenic levels and population with major landmarks, a risk zone and estimated population at risk were determined, which were exposed to arsenic level ≥10 µg/L. Drinking wells with arsenic levels of ≥10 µg/L were concentrated within 18 km near the river bank. Based on these estimates, a total of 13 million people were exposed to ≥10 µg/L arsenic concentration along the course of River Indus traversing through 27 districts in Pakistan. This information would help the researchers in designing health effect studies on arsenic and policy makers in allocating resources for designing focused interventions for arsenic mitigation in Pakistan. The study methods have implication on similar populations which are affected along rivers due to arsenic contamination.

Impact of obesity and body fat distribution on cardiovascular risk factors in Hong Kong Chinese.

PubMed

Thomas, G Neil; Ho, Sai-Yin; Lam, Karen S L; Janus, Edward D; Hedley, Anthony J; Lam, Tai Hing

2004-11-01

Body fat distribution has been reported to differentially contribute to the development of cardiovascular risk. We report the relative associations between general and central obesity and risk factors in 2893 Chinese subjects recruited from the Hong Kong population. Anthropometric parameters [waist circumference (WC) and BMI], surrogate measures of insulin resistance (fasting plasma glucose and insulin, oral glucose tolerance test, 2 hours glucose and insulin), fasting lipids (total, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and triglycerides) and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured. General obesity was classified as BMI > or =25.0 kg/m(2) and central obesity as a WC > or =80 or > or =90 cm in women and men, respectively. A total of 39.2% of the population was found to be obese. Obesity per se increased the levels of the risk factors, but central adiposity contributed to a greater extent to adverse high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, triglyceride, and insulin resistance levels. There was a continuous relationship between increasing obesity, both general and central, and cardiovascular risk, with lowest risk associated with the lowest indices of obesity. In the 1759 nonobese subjects divided into quartiles of BMI or WC, the levels of the cardiovascular risk factors still significantly increased with increasing quartiles of adiposity. Central adiposity appears to contribute to a greater extent than general adiposity to the development of cardiovascular risk in this population. The relationship between obesity parameters and risk is a continuum, with risk factors significantly increasing even at levels usually considered nonobese. These observations support the proposed redefinition of overweight and obesity in Asian populations using lower cut-off points.

Parent and halogenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in rice and implications for human health in China.

PubMed

Ding, Chao; Ni, Hong-Gang; Zeng, Hui

2012-09-01

Rice is the staple food for approximate two thirds of the Chinese population. However, human exposure to parent and halogenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) via rice consumption is still not clear for Chinese people so far. The goals of this work are to assess human exposure to PAHs and halogenated PAHs (HPAHs) via rice ingestion and the cancer risk for Chinese population. 16 PAHs and eight HPAHs were determined in rice samples collected from 18 provinces in China. In general terms, the general population in China was exposed to higher levels of PAHs via rice ingestion in comparison to that via cereals for other countries. The cancer risk values induced by exposure to PAHs and HPAHs for male and female on each age group were between the priority risk level (10(-4)) and the acceptable risk level (10(-6)). Children faced the highest cancer risk, followed by adolescents and adults. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of portfolio theory to risk-based allocation of surveillance resources in animal populations.

PubMed

Prattley, D J; Morris, R S; Stevenson, M A; Thornton, R

2007-09-14

Distribution of finite levels of resources between multiple competing tasks can be a challenging problem. Resources need to be distributed across time periods and geographic locations to increase the probability of detection of a disease incursion or significant change in disease pattern. Efforts should focus primarily on areas and populations where risk factors for a given disease reach relatively high levels. In order to target resources into these areas, the overall risk level can be evaluated periodically across locations to create a dynamic national risk landscape. Methods are described to integrate the levels of various risk factors into an overall risk score for each area, to account for the certainty or variability around those measures and then to allocate surveillance resources across this risk landscape. In addition to targeting resources into high risk areas, surveillance continues in lower risk areas where there is a small yet positive chance of disease occurrence. In this paper we describe the application of portfolio theory concepts, routinely used in finance, to design surveillance portfolios for a series of examples. The appropriate level of resource investment is chosen for each disease or geographical area and time period given the degree of disease risk and uncertainty present.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk level in a vulnerable population.

PubMed

Kim, Chun-Ja; Park, JeeWon; Kang, Se-Won

2015-04-01

This study examined the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and the risk level of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a vulnerable population of 407 subjects in Korea. This descriptive study was a part of the Tailed Health Visiting Service Program, using baseline data from public health centres in Suwon, Korea. The definition of metabolic syndrome was based on the National Cholesterol Education Program criteria, and risk of CVD was estimated according to the Framingham study equation. This study demonstrated that the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 40.8% higher and the risk of CVD was significantly 3.1 times higher among those with metabolic syndrome than among those without it. Of those with metabolic syndrome, 50.6% overall and 81.1% of men had a high risk for CVD. These findings suggest a need to screen and prevent the risk of CVD in vulnerable populations with metabolic syndrome. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Development and use of role model stories in a community level HIV risk reduction intervention.

PubMed Central

Corby, N H; Enguídanos, S M; Kay, L S

1996-01-01

A theory-based HIV prevention intervention was implemented as part of a five-city AIDS Community Demonstration Project for the development and testing of a community-level intervention to reduce AIDS risk among historically underserved groups. This intervention employed written material containing stories of risk-reducing experiences of members of the priority populations, in this case, injecting drug users, their female sex partners, and female sex workers. These materials were distributed to members of these populations by their peers, volunteers from the population who were trained to deliver social reinforcement for interest in personal risk reduction and the materials. The participation of the priority populations in the development and implementation of the intervention was designed to increase the credibility of the intervention and the acceptance of the message. The techniques involved in developing role-model stories are described in this paper. PMID:8862158

Risk of MS is not associated with exposure to crude oil, but increases with low level of education.

PubMed

Riise, Trond; Kirkeleit, Jorunn; Aarseth, Jan Harald; Farbu, Elisabeth; Midgard, Rune; Mygland, Åse; Eikeland, Randi; Mørland, Tore Jørgen; Telstad, Wenche; Førland, Per Tore; Myhr, Kjell-Morten

2011-07-01

Offshore workers in the Norwegian upstream petroleum industry are exposed to a number of chemicals such as organic solvents, mineral oils and other hydrocarbons, possibly contributing to an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). To estimate the risk of MS in this population compared with the general working population in Norway, adjusting for education. Using the Norwegian Registry of Employers and Employees we included all 27,900 offshore workers registered from 1981 to 2003 and 366,805 referents from the general working population matched by gender, age and community of residence. The cohort was linked to the Norwegian MS Registry and the Norwegian Education Registry. There was no increased risk of MS among the offshore workers. We found a marked and linear inverse relationship between level of education and the risk of MS in the total study population, with a rate ratio of 0.48 (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.88) for workers with a graduate degree compared to workers with elementary school only. These findings do not support a major aetiological role of petroleum-based products, but rather point to smoking and other lifestyle factors related to the level of education as being important for the risk of MS.

Assessing the roles of population density and predation risk in the evolution of offspring size in populations of a placental fish

PubMed Central

Schrader, Matthew; Travis, Joseph

2012-01-01

Population density is an ecological variable that is hypothesized to be a major agent of selection on offspring size. In high-density populations, high levels of intraspecific competition are expected to favor the production of larger offspring. In contrast, lower levels of intraspecific competition and selection for large offspring should be weaker and more easily overridden by direct selection for increased fecundity in low-density populations. Some studies have found associations between population density and offspring size consistent with this hypothesis. However, their interpretations are often clouded by a number of issues. Here, we use data from a 10-year study of nine populations of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa, to describe the associations of offspring size with habitat type, population density, and predation risk. We found that females from spring populations generally produced larger offspring than females from ponds; however, the magnitude of this difference varied among years. Across all populations, larger offspring were associated with higher densities and lower risks of predation. Interestingly, the associations between the two ecological variables (density and predation risk) and offspring size were largely independent of one another. Our results suggest that previously described genetic differences in offspring size are due to density-dependent natural selection. PMID:22957156

Toward Guidelines for Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment: Results of a U.S. EPA Risk Assessment Forum Workshop

EPA Science Inventory

The choice of levels of biological organization reflected in ecological risk assessment (ERA) is receiving increasing attention. Most ERAs conducted for chemicals by the U.S. EPA, and indeed by most organizations worldwide, focus on organism-level attributes (e.g., survival, gro...

Multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among Israeli and Palestinian adolescents.

PubMed

Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Abdeen, Ziad; Walsh, Sophie D; Radwan, Qasrowi; Fogel-Grinvald, Haya

2012-07-01

Based conceptually on Problem Behavior Theory, Normalization Theory and theories of adolescent ethnic identity formation this study explores relationships between individual and cumulative multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among mid-adolescents in three different populations in the Middle East. Data from the 2004 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children in the Middle-East (HBSC-ME) study included 8345 10th-grade pupils in three populations: Jewish Israelis (1770), Arab Israelis (2185), and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank (4390). We considered risk behaviors and factors including tobacco use, bullying, medically-attended injuries, excessive time with friends, parental disconnectedness, negative school experience, truancy and poor academic performance. Substantial population differences for suicidal tendency and risk behaviors were observed, with notably high levels of suicidal ideation and behavior among Arab-Israeli youth and higher levels of risk behaviors among the Jewish and Arab-Israeli youth. For all populations suicidal tendency was at least 4 times higher among adolescents reporting 4+ risk behaviors, suggesting that similar psychosocial determinants affect patterns of risk behaviors and suicidal tendency. Results highlight the importance of understanding cultural contexts of risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Global importation and population risk factors for measles in New Zealand: a case study for highly immunized populations.

PubMed

Hayman, D T S; Marshall, J C; French, N P; Carpenter, T E; Roberts, M G; Kiedrzynski, T

2017-07-01

As endemic measles is eliminated through immunization, countries must determine the risk factors for the importation of measles into highly immunized populations to target control measures. Despite eliminating endemic measles, New Zealand suffers from outbreaks after introductions from abroad, enabling us to use it as a model for measles introduction risk. We used a generalized linear model to analyze risk factors for 1137 measles cases from 2007 to June 2014, provide estimates of national immunity levels, and model measles importation risk. People of European ethnicity made up the majority of measles cases. Age is a positive risk factor, particularly 0-2-year-olds and 5-17-year-old Europeans, along with increased wealth. Pacific islanders were also at greater risk, but due to 0-2-year-old cases. Despite recent high measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine immunization coverage, overall population immunity against measles remains ~90% and is lower in people born between 1982 and 2005. Greatest measles importation risk is during December, and countries predicted to be sources have historical connections and highest travel rates (Australia and UK), followed by Asian countries with high travel rates and higher measles incidences. Our results suggest measles importation due to travel is seeding measles outbreaks, and immunization levels are insufficient to continue to prevent outbreaks because of heterogeneous immunity in the population, leaving particular age groups at risk.

Effect of biodiversity changes in disease risk: exploring disease emergence in a plant-virus system.

PubMed

Pagán, Israel; González-Jara, Pablo; Moreno-Letelier, Alejandra; Rodelo-Urrego, Manuel; Fraile, Aurora; Piñero, Daniel; García-Arenal, Fernando

2012-01-01

The effect of biodiversity on the ability of parasites to infect their host and cause disease (i.e. disease risk) is a major question in pathology, which is central to understand the emergence of infectious diseases, and to develop strategies for their management. Two hypotheses, which can be considered as extremes of a continuum, relate biodiversity to disease risk: One states that biodiversity is positively correlated with disease risk (Amplification Effect), and the second predicts a negative correlation between biodiversity and disease risk (Dilution Effect). Which of them applies better to different host-parasite systems is still a source of debate, due to limited experimental or empirical data. This is especially the case for viral diseases of plants. To address this subject, we have monitored for three years the prevalence of several viruses, and virus-associated symptoms, in populations of wild pepper (chiltepin) under different levels of human management. For each population, we also measured the habitat species diversity, host plant genetic diversity and host plant density. Results indicate that disease and infection risk increased with the level of human management, which was associated with decreased species diversity and host genetic diversity, and with increased host plant density. Importantly, species diversity of the habitat was the primary predictor of disease risk for wild chiltepin populations. This changed in managed populations where host genetic diversity was the primary predictor. Host density was generally a poorer predictor of disease and infection risk. These results support the dilution effect hypothesis, and underline the relevance of different ecological factors in determining disease/infection risk in host plant populations under different levels of anthropic influence. These results are relevant for managing plant diseases and for establishing conservation policies for endangered plant species.

Enhancing the Value of Population-Based Risk Scores for Institutional-Level Use.

PubMed

Raza, Sajjad; Sabik, Joseph F; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Idrees, Jay J; Trezzi, Matteo; Riaz, Haris; Javadikasgari, Hoda; Nowicki, Edward R; Svensson, Lars G; Blackstone, Eugene H

2016-07-01

We hypothesized that factors associated with an institution's residual risk unaccounted for by population-based models may be identifiable and used to enhance the value of population-based risk scores for quality improvement. From January 2000 to January 2010, 4,971 patients underwent aortic valve replacement (AVR), either isolated (n = 2,660) or with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (AVR+CABG; n = 2,311). Operative mortality and major morbidity and mortality predicted by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk models were compared with observed values. After adjusting for patients' STS score, additional and refined risk factors were sought to explain residual risk. Differences between STS model coefficients (risk-factor strength) and those specific to our institution were calculated. Observed operative mortality was less than predicted for AVR (1.6% [42 of 2,660] vs 2.8%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (2.6% [59 of 2,311] vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001). Observed major morbidity and mortality was also lower than predicted for isolated AVR (14.6% [389 of 2,660] vs 17.5%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (20.0% [462 of 2,311] vs 25.8%, p < 0.0001). Shorter height, higher bilirubin, and lower albumin were identified as additional institution-specific risk factors, and body surface area, creatinine, glomerular filtration rate, blood urea nitrogen, and heart failure across all levels of functional class were identified as refined risk-factor variables associated with residual risk. In many instances, risk-factor strength differed substantially from that of STS models. Scores derived from population-based models can be enhanced for institutional level use by adjusting for institution-specific additional and refined risk factors. Identifying these and measuring differences in institution-specific versus population-based risk-factor strength can identify areas to target for quality improvement initiatives. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determining significant endpoints for ecological risk analyses. 1997 annual progress report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinton, T.G.; Congdon, J.; Rowe, C.

1997-11-01

'This report summarizes the first year''s progress of research funded under the Department of Energy''s Environmental Management Science Program. The research was initiated to better determine ecological risks from toxic and radioactive contaminants. More precisely, the research is designed to determine the relevancy of sublethal cellular damage to the performance of individuals and to identify characteristics of non-human populations exposed to chronic, low-level radiation, as is typically found on many DOE sites. The authors propose to establish a protocol to assess risks to non-human species at higher levels of biological organization by relating molecular damage to more relevant responses thatmore » reflect population health. They think that they can achieve this by coupling changes in metabolic rates and energy allocation patterns to meaningful population response variables, and by using novel biological dosimeters in controlled, manipulative dose/effects experiments. They believe that a scientifically defensible endpoint for measuring ecological risks can only be determined once its understood the extent to which molecular damage from contaminant exposure is detrimental at the individual and population levels of biological organization.'« less

Integrating mechanistic and polymorphism data to characterize human genetic susceptibility for environmental chemical risk assessment in the 21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mortensen, Holly M., E-mail: mortensen.holly@epa.gov; Euling, Susan Y.

Response to environmental chemicals can vary widely among individuals and between population groups. In human health risk assessment, data on susceptibility can be utilized by deriving risk levels based on a study of a susceptible population and/or an uncertainty factor may be applied to account for the lack of information about susceptibility. Defining genetic susceptibility in response to environmental chemicals across human populations is an area of interest in the NAS' new paradigm of toxicity pathway-based risk assessment. Data from high-throughput/high content (HT/HC), including -omics (e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics) technologies, have been integral to the identification and characterization ofmore » drug target and disease loci, and have been successfully utilized to inform the mechanism of action for numerous environmental chemicals. Large-scale population genotyping studies may help to characterize levels of variability across human populations at identified target loci implicated in response to environmental chemicals. By combining mechanistic data for a given environmental chemical with next generation sequencing data that provides human population variation information, one can begin to characterize differential susceptibility due to genetic variability to environmental chemicals within and across genetically heterogeneous human populations. The integration of such data sources will be informative to human health risk assessment.« less

[Spanish Adaptation of the 2016 European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice].

PubMed

Royo-Bordonada, Miguel Angel; Armario, Pedro; Lobos Bejarano, José María; Pedro-Botet, Juan; Villar Álvarez, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Brotons Cuixart, Carlos; Cortés, Olga; Serrano, Benilde; Camafort Babkowski, Miguel; Gil Núñez, Antonio; Pérez, Antonio; Maiques, Antonio; de Santiago Nocito, Ana; Castro, Almudena; Alegría, Eduardo; Baeza, Ciro; Herranz, María; Sans, Susana; Campos, Pilar

2016-11-24

The VI European Guidelines for Cardiovascular Prevention recommend combining population and high-risk strategies with lifestyle changes as a cornerstone of prevention, and propose the SCORE function to quantify cardiovascular risk. The guidelines highlight disease specific interventions, and conditions as women, young people and ethnic minorities. Screening for subclinical atherosclerosis with noninvasive imaging techniques is not recommended. The guidelines distinguish four risk levels (very high, high, moderate and low) with therapeutic objectives for lipid control according to risk. Diabetes mellitus confers a high risk, except for subjects with type 2 diabetes with less than 10 years of evolution, without other risk factors or complications, or type 1 diabetes of short evolution without complications. The decision to start pharmacological treatment of arterial hypertension will depend on the blood pressure level and the cardiovascular risk, taking into account the lesion of target organs. The guidelines don't recommend antiplatelet drugs in primary prevention because of the increased bleeding risk. The low adherence to the medication requires simplified therapeutic regimes and to identify and combat its causes. The guidelines highlight the responsibility of health professionals to take an active role in advocating evidence-based interventions at the population level, and propose effective interventions, at individual and population level, to promote a healthy diet, the practice of physical activity, the cessation of smoking and the protection against alcohol abuse.

Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a nationwide study.

PubMed

Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B; Benros, Michael E; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben B

2014-03-01

Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established a population-based cohort of 2,486,646million persons born in Denmark between 1 January 1955 and 31 December 1993 using Danish registers. We found that PAR associated with urban birth was 11.73%; PAR associated with one, respectively 2, parent(s) with schizophrenia was 2.67% and 0.12%. PAR associated with second-generation immigration was 0.70%. Highest cumulative incidence (CI=20.23%; 95% CI=18.10-22.62) was found in male offspring of 2 parents with schizophrenia. Cumulative incidences for male offspring or female offspring of a parent with schizophrenia were 9.53% (95% CI=7.71-11.79), and 4.89%, (95% CI 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches and seek to achieve higher predictive power on the individual level and higher population impact. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk factors and consequences of maternal anaemia and elevated haemoglobin levels during pregnancy: a population-based prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Gaillard, Romy; Eilers, Paul H C; Yassine, Siham; Hofman, Albert; Steegers, Eric A P; Jaddoe, Vincent W V

2014-05-01

To determine sociodemographic and life style-related risk factors and trimester specific maternal, placental, and fetal consequences of maternal anaemia and elevated haemoglobin levels in pregnancy. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 7317 mothers, we measured haemoglobin levels in early pregnancy [gestational age median 14.4 weeks (inter-quartile-range 12.5-17.5)]. Anaemia (haemoglobin ≤11 g/dl) and elevated haemoglobin levels (haemoglobin ≥13.2 g/dl) were defined according to the WHO criteria. Maternal blood pressure, placental function and fetal growth were measured in each trimester. Data on gestational hypertensive disorders and birth outcomes was collected from hospitals. Older maternal age, higher body mass index, primiparity and European descent were associated with higher haemoglobin levels (P < 0.05). Elevated haemoglobin levels were associated with increased systolic and diastolic blood pressure throughout pregnancy (mean differences 5.1 mmHg, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8, 6.5 and 4.1 mmHg, 95% CI 3.0, 5.2, respectively) and with a higher risk of third trimester uterine artery notching (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0, 1.7). As compared with maternal normal haemoglobin levels, not anaemia, but elevated haemoglobin levels were associated with fetal head circumference, length, and weight growth restriction from third trimester onwards (P < 0.05). Elevated haemoglobin levels were associated with increased risks of gestational hypertensive disorders (RR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1, 1.8) and adverse birth outcomes (RR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1, 1.7). In a low-risk population, various sociodemographic and life style factors affect haemoglobin levels during pregnancy. Elevated haemoglobin levels are associated with increased risks of maternal, placental, and fetal complications. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adverse Outcome Pathways and Ecological Risk Assessment: Bridging to Population Level Effects

EPA Science Inventory

The viability of populations of plants and animals is a key focus for environmental regulation. Population-level responses integrate the cumulative effects of chemical stressors on individuals as those individuals interact with and are affected by their con-specifics, competitor...

The influence of predation on the chronic response of Artemia sp. populations to a toxicant

PubMed Central

BEKETOV, MIKHAIL A; LIESS, MATTHIAS

2006-01-01

Environmental risk assessment of contaminants is conventionally based on toxic effects assessed in organism-level test systems. We suggest that, for the prediction of toxicant effects, population- and community-level effects should be considered. The aim of this study was to investigate how predation could alter a prey population's response to a toxicant to reveal effects at population and community levels.Populations of the brine shrimp Artemia sp. were maintained in the laboratory with and without simulated predation. Individuals were exposed for 1 h to the pyrethroid insecticide esfenvalerate (0, 0·01, 0·04 and 0·08 µg L−1) and subsequently observed for 6 weeks.Unpredated exposed populations showed a reduced population density compared with the control. However, even at the highest concentration of insecticide, populations were sustained until the end of the experiment. The lower density in the exposed populations led to reduced competition and subsequently to enhanced development of surviving individuals and an increased proportion of young individuals. In contrast, the combination of predation and short-term toxicant exposure at concentrations of 0·04 and 0·08 µg L−1 produced extinction of the populations after 39 and 32 days of exposure, respectively.Synthesis and applications. The response of populations of brine shrimp to toxicants at the community level may be stronger when predation is present than the response of populations without predation pressure, as the regulation capacity of the population (measured as an increased production of offspring at reduced population densities) is exhausted when predation is present. Future ecotoxicological risk assessment schemes should consider relevant community characteristics such as predation as part of an environmental risk assessment. PMID:18784796

Low-serum GTA-446 anti-inflammatory fatty acid levels as a new risk factor for colon cancer

PubMed Central

Ritchie, Shawn A; Tonita, Jon; Alvi, Riaz; Lehotay, Denis; Elshoni, Hoda; Myat, Su-; McHattie, James; Goodenowe, Dayan B

2013-01-01

Gastrointestinal tract acid-446 (GTA-446) is a long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid present in the serum. A reduction of GTA-446 levels in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients has been reported previously. Our study compared GTA-446 levels in subjects diagnosed with CRC at the time of colonoscopy to the general population. Serum samples and pathology data were collected from 4,923 representative subjects undergoing colonoscopy and from 964 subjects from the general population. Serum GTA-446 levels were determined using a triple-quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry method. A low-serum GTA-446 level was based on the bottom tenth percentile of subjects with low risk based on age (40–49 years old) in the general population. Eighty-six percent of newly diagnosed CRC subjects (87% for stages 0–II and 85% for stages III–IV) showed low-serum GTA-446 levels. A significant increase in the CRC incidence rate with age was observed in subjects with low GTA-446 levels (p = 0.019), but not in subjects with normal levels (p = 0.86). The relative risk of CRC given a low GTA-446 level was the highest for subjects under age 50 (10.1, 95% confidence interval [C.I.] = 6.4–16.4 in the reference population, and 7.7, 95% C.I. = 4.4–14.1 in the colonoscopy population, both p < 0.0001), and declined with age thereafter. The CRC incidence rate in subjects undergoing colonoscopy with low GTA-446 levels was over six times higher than for subjects with normal GTA-446 levels and twice that of subjects with gastrointestinal symptoms. The results show that a low-serum GTA-446 level is a significant risk factor for CRC, and a sensitive predictor of early-stage disease. PMID:22696299

GENETICS AND POPULATION-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Genetic variation defines population structure and provides the mechanism for populations to adapt to novel stressors. Despite its fundamental importance in understanding populations, genetic information has been included rarely in models of population dynamics (endangered speci...

Can data science inform environmental justice and community risk screening for type 2 diabetes?

PubMed

Davis, J Allen; Burgoon, Lyle D

2015-01-01

Having the ability to scan the entire country for potential "hotspots" with increased risk of developing chronic diseases due to various environmental, demographic, and genetic susceptibility factors may inform risk management decisions and enable better environmental public health policies. Develop an approach for community-level risk screening focused on identifying potential genetic susceptibility hotpots. Our approach combines analyses of phenotype-genotype data, genetic prevalence of single nucleotide polymorphisms, and census/geographic information to estimate census tract-level population attributable risks among various ethnicities and total population for the state of California. We estimate that the rs13266634 single nucleotide polymorphism, a type 2 diabetes susceptibility genotype, has a genetic prevalence of 56.3%, 47.4% and 37.0% in Mexican Mestizo, Caucasian, and Asian populations. Looking at the top quintile for total population attributable risk, 16 California counties have greater than 25% of their population living in hotspots of genetic susceptibility for developing type 2 diabetes due to this single genotypic susceptibility factor. This study identified counties in California where large portions of the population may bear additional type 2 diabetes risk due to increased genetic prevalence of a susceptibility genotype. This type of screening can easily be extended to include information on environmental contaminants of interest and other related diseases, and potentially enables the rapid identification of potential environmental justice communities. Other potential uses of this approach include problem formulation in support of risk assessments, land use planning, and prioritization of site cleanup and remediation actions.

Estimating the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, A. J.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Wadey, M. P.

2015-06-01

Coastal managers face the task of assessing and managing flood risk. This requires knowledge of the area of land, the number of people, properties and other infrastructure potentially affected by floods. Such analyses are usually static; i.e. they only consider a snapshot of the current situation. This misses the opportunity to learn about the role of key drivers of historical changes in flood risk, such as development and population rise in the coastal flood plain, as well as sea-level rise. In this paper, we develop and apply a method to analyse the temporal evolution of residential population exposure to coastal flooding. It uses readily available data in a GIS environment. We examine how population and sea-level change have modified exposure over two centuries in two neighbouring coastal sites: Portsea and Hayling Islands on the UK south coast. The analysis shows that flood exposure changes as a result of increases in population, changes in coastal population density and sea level rise. The results indicate that to date, population change is the dominant driver of the increase in exposure to flooding in the study sites, but climate change may outweigh this in the future. A full analysis of changing flood risk is not possible as data on historic defences and wider vulnerability are not available. Hence, the historic evolution of flood exposure is as close as we can get to a historic evolution of flood risk. The method is applicable anywhere that suitable floodplain geometry, sea level and population data sets are available and could be widely applied, and will help inform coastal managers of the time evolution in coastal flood drivers.

Adverse Outcome Pathways and Ecological Risk Assessment: Bridging to Population Level Effects, Journal Article

EPA Science Inventory

The viability of populations of plants and animals is a key focus for environmental regulation. Population-level responses integrate the cumulative effects of chemical stressors on individuals as those individuals interact with and are affected by their con-specifics, competitor...

Central systolic blood pressure is associated with ethnicity and cardiovascular disease risk factors in Chinese middle-aged population.

PubMed

Wang, Zengwu; Hao, Guang; Zhang, Linfeng; Chen, Zuo; Wang, Xin; Guo, Min; Tian, Ye; Shao, Lan; Zhu, Manlu

2016-02-01

Central systolic blood pressure (CSBP) is a useful prognostic aid in the reduction and prevention of cardiovascular diseases. However, data regarding the distribution of CSBP in China are not available. The study aimed at assessing the distribution of CSBP and examining its relationship with potential cardiovascular risk factors in the Chinese middle-aged population. A cross-sectional study. A cross-sectional survey on cardiovascular risk factors across China was conducted in 2009-2010. CSBP levels were estimated using the non-invasive BPro device with A-Pulse central aortic systolic pressure software. The study population included 9113 individuals (mean age 49.84 years; 53.37% women). The CSBP levels (mean (standard deviation)) were 119.46 (17.51) mmHg in men and 119.81 (19.29) mmHg in women. CSBP levels were higher in rural than urban and lower in the southern than the northern populations (both P < 0.05). The Han ethnic group had higher CSBP levels than the Tibetans (P < 0.05) but similar to those in the Mongolian, Uyghur, Kazak and Akha groups. Irrespective of gender, the mean CSBP level was higher in individuals with diabetes and hypertension than in those without these disorders (P < 0.05). CSBP was positively associated with cardiovascular risk factors such as age, female gender, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and negatively associated with heart rate. CSBP estimated using the BPro device correlates with various cardiovascular risk factors. Our results may help establish future reference values in the Chinese middle-aged population. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

An Individual-based Model for Extrapolating Standard Toxicity Test Data into Population-level Adverse Outcomes in the Fathead Minnow

EPA Science Inventory

While environmental toxicity testing typically focuses on organism-level endpoints such as mortality, growth, and reproduction, risk assessment guidelines specify protection goals at the level of the population and above. One method of linking these different levels of biological...

Modeling individual movement decisions of brown hare (Lepus europaeus) as a key concept for realistic spatial behavior and exposure: A population model for landscape-level risk assessment.

PubMed

Kleinmann, Joachim U; Wang, Magnus

2017-09-01

Spatial behavior is of crucial importance for the risk assessment of pesticides and for the assessment of effects of agricultural practice or multiple stressors, because it determines field use, exposition, and recovery. Recently, population models have increasingly been used to understand the mechanisms driving risk and recovery or to conduct landscape-level risk assessments. To include spatial behavior appropriately in population models for use in risk assessments, a new method, "probabilistic walk," was developed, which simulates the detailed daily movement of individuals by taking into account food resources, vegetation cover, and the presence of conspecifics. At each movement step, animals decide where to move next based on probabilities being determined from this information. The model was parameterized to simulate populations of brown hares (Lepus europaeus). A detailed validation of the model demonstrated that it can realistically reproduce various natural patterns of brown hare ecology and behavior. Simulated proportions of time animals spent in fields (PT values) were also comparable to field observations. It is shown that these important parameters for the risk assessment may, however, vary in different landscapes. The results demonstrate the value of using population models to reduce uncertainties in risk assessment and to better understand which factors determine risk in a landscape context. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2299-2307. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Socio-demographic Predictors for Urban Community Disaster Health Risk Perception and Household Based Preparedness in a Chinese Urban City

PubMed Central

Chan, Emily YY; Yue, Janice; Lee, Poyi; Wang, Susan Shuxin

2016-01-01

Objectives: There is limited evidence on urban Asian communities' disaster risk perceptions and household level preparedness. Hong Kong is characterized by high population density, and is susceptible to large-scale natural disasters and health crises such as typhoons, fires and infectious disease outbreaks. This research paper investigates the rates and predictors of urban community disaster risk perception, awareness and preparedness, at individual and household levels. Methods: A randomized cross-sectional, population-based telephone survey study was conducted among the Cantonese-speaking population aged over 15 years in Hong Kong. Descriptive statistics were reported. A stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the independent associations between risk perceptions, socioeconomic factors, household characteristics, and personal background. Findings: Final study sample comprised of 1002 respondents with a 63% response rate. The majority of respondents (82.3%) did not perceive Hong Kong as a disaster-susceptible city. Half (54.6%) reported beliefs that the local population had lower disaster awareness than other global cities. Infectious disease outbreak (72.4%), typhoon (12.6%), and fire (7.1%) were ranked as the most-likely-to-occur population-based disasters. Although over 77% believed that basic first aid training was necessary for improving individual disaster preparedness, only a quarter (26.1%) of respondents reported participation in training. Conclusion: Despite Hong Kong’s high level of risk, general public perceptions of disaster in Hong Kong were low, and little preparedness has occurred at the individual or household levels. This report has potential to inform the development of related policies and risk communication strategies in Asian urban cities. PMID:28856059

Health risk assessment for exposure to nitrate in drinking water from village wells in Semarang, Indonesia.

PubMed

Sadler, Ross; Maetam, Brooke; Edokpolo, Benjamin; Connell, Des; Yu, Jimmy; Stewart, Donald; Park, M-J; Gray, Darren; Laksono, Budi

2016-09-01

The levels of nitrate in 52 drinking water wells in rural Central Java, Indonesia were evaluated in April 2014, and the results were used for a health risk assessment for the local populations by using probabilistic techniques. The concentrations of nitrate in drinking water had a range of 0.01-84 mg/L, a mean of 20 mg/L and a medium of 14 mg/L. Only two of the 52 samples exceeded the WHO guideline values of 50 mg/L for infant methaemoglobinaemia. The hazard quotient values as evaluated against the WHO guideline value at the 50 and 95 percentile points were HQ50 at 0.42 and HQ95 at 1.2, respectively. These indicated a low risk of infant methaemoglobinaemia for the whole population, but some risk for the sensitive portion of the population. The HQ50 and HQ95 values based on WHO acceptable daily intake dose for adult male and female were 0.35 and 1.0, respectively, indicating a generally a low level of risk. A risk characterisation linking birth defects to nitrate levels in water consumed during the first three months of pregnancy resulted in a HQ50/50 values of 1.5 and a HQ95/5 value of 65. These HQ values indicated an elevated risk for birth defects, in particular for the more sensitive population. A sanitation improvement program in the study area had a positive effect in reducing nitrate levels in wells and the corresponding risk for public health. For example, the birth defect HQ50/50 values for a subset of wells surveyed in both 2014 and 2015 was reduced from 1.1 to 0.71. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Chronic Cough Among 14,669 Individuals From the General Population.

PubMed

Çolak, Yunus; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Laursen, Lars C; Afzal, Shoaib; Lange, Peter; Dahl, Morten

2017-09-01

Risk factors for chronic cough in the general population have not been described systematically. We identified and ranked chronic cough risk factors at the individual and community level using data from 14,669 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study. Severity of chronic cough was assessed using the Leicester Cough Questionnaire (LCQ). We ranked chronic cough risk factors based on magnitude of age-adjusted ORs at the individual level and of the population attributable risks (PARs) at the community level. Prevalence of chronic cough in the general population was 4% overall and 3% in never smokers, 4% in former smokers, and 8% in current smokers. Median score of the LCQ was 5.8 (25th-75th percentile, 5.0-6.3) for physical domain, 5.6 (25th-75th percentile, 4.6-6.3) for psychologic domain, 6.3 (25th-75th percentile, 5.5-6.8) for social domain, and 17.3 (25th- 75th percentile, 15.4-18.9) in total. At the level of the individual, age-adjusted ORs for the three top-ranked risk factors were 5.0 (95% CI, 1.4-18) for bronchiectasis, 2.6 (95% CI, 1.7-3.9) for asthma and 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5-3.4) for gastroesophageal reflux disease in never smokers, 7.1 (95% CI, 2.6-20) for bronchiectasis, 3.1 (95% CI, 2.2-4.4) for asthma and 2.2 (95% CI, 1.5-3.2) for occupational exposure to dust/fumes in former smokers, and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.3-2.9) for airflow limitation in current smokers. At the level of the community, the three top-ranked risk factors were female sex (PAR, 19%), asthma (PAR, 10%), and gastroesophageal reflux disease (PAR, 8%) in never smokers; abdominal obesity (PAR, 20%), low income (PAR, 20%), and asthma (PAR, 13%) in former smokers; and airflow limitation (PAR, 23%) in current smokers. Risk factors for chronic cough differ at the level of the individual and community, and by smoking status. Strategies to prevent and treat modifiable chronic cough risk factors should be tailored accordingly. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Assessment of non-carcinogenic risk for the health of the child population under the consumption of drinking water].

PubMed

Stepanova, N V; Valeeva, E R; Fomina, S F; Ziyatdinova, A I

In the article there are given results of the evaluation of non-carcinogenic risks for the health of the child population residing in different areas (districts) of the city of Kazan with the aim of the subsequent comprehensive assessment of the pollutants in drinking water. Assessment of the risk for the human health was performed correspondingly to with the P 2.1.10.1920-04 for oral route of exposure in accordance to the chemical composition of drinking water with account for the standard and regional factors of the exposure. The results of the risk assessment under the consumption of drinking tap water by the child population with localized place of residence permit to reveal areas with a high level of health risk in the city. The screening assessment of carcinogenic risk due to the consumption of chemicals with drinking water revealed differences in regional and standard values of the exposure factors. This affects both on the value of the chronic average daily intake of chemical contaminants in drinking water and the level of risk under the consumption of drinking water by the child population.

Vitamin D deficiency, behavioral atypicality, anxiety and depression in children with chromosome 22q11.2 deletion syndrome

PubMed Central

Kelley, L.; Sanders, A. F. P.; Beaton, E. A.

2018-01-01

Chromosome 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11.2DS) is a complex developmental disorder with serious medical, cognitive and emotional symptoms across the lifespan. This genetic deletion also imparts a lifetime risk for developing schizophrenia that is 25–30 times that of the general population. The origin of this risk is multifactorial and may include dysregulation of the stress response and immunological systems in relation to brain development. Vitamin D is involved in brain development and neuroprotection, gene transcription, immunological regulation and influences neuronal signal transduction. Low levels of vitamin D are associated with schizophrenia, depression and anxiety in the general population. Yet, little is known about how vitamin D levels in children with 22q11.2DS could mediate risk of psychosis in adulthood. Blood plasma levels of vitamin D were measured in children aged 7–16 years with (n = 11) and without (n = 16) 22q11.2DS in relation to parent reports of children’s anxiety and atypicality. Anxiety and atypicality in childhood are risk indicators for the development of schizophrenia in those with 22q11.2DS and the general population. Children with 22q11.2DS had lower vitamin D levels, as well as elevated anxiety and atypicality compared with typical peers. Higher levels of anxiety, depression and internalizing problems but not atypicality were associated with lower levels of vitamin D. Vitamin D insufficiency may relate to higher levels of anxiety and depression, in turn contributing to the elevated risk of psychosis in this population. Further study is required to determine casual linkages between anxiety, stress, mood and vitamin D in children with 22q11.2DS. PMID:27827293

Vitamin D deficiency, behavioral atypicality, anxiety and depression in children with chromosome 22q11.2 deletion syndrome.

PubMed

Kelley, L; Sanders, A F P; Beaton, E A

2016-12-01

Chromosome 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11.2DS) is a complex developmental disorder with serious medical, cognitive and emotional symptoms across the lifespan. This genetic deletion also imparts a lifetime risk for developing schizophrenia that is 25-30 times that of the general population. The origin of this risk is multifactorial and may include dysregulation of the stress response and immunological systems in relation to brain development. Vitamin D is involved in brain development and neuroprotection, gene transcription, immunological regulation and influences neuronal signal transduction. Low levels of vitamin D are associated with schizophrenia, depression and anxiety in the general population. Yet, little is known about how vitamin D levels in children with 22q11.2DS could mediate risk of psychosis in adulthood. Blood plasma levels of vitamin D were measured in children aged 7-16 years with (n=11) and without (n=16) 22q11.2DS in relation to parent reports of children's anxiety and atypicality. Anxiety and atypicality in childhood are risk indicators for the development of schizophrenia in those with 22q11.2DS and the general population. Children with 22q11.2DS had lower vitamin D levels, as well as elevated anxiety and atypicality compared with typical peers. Higher levels of anxiety, depression and internalizing problems but not atypicality were associated with lower levels of vitamin D. Vitamin D insufficiency may relate to higher levels of anxiety and depression, in turn contributing to the elevated risk of psychosis in this population. Further study is required to determine casual linkages between anxiety, stress, mood and vitamin D in children with 22q11.2DS.

[Provincial representativeness assessment of China Non-communicable and Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance System in 2013].

PubMed

Zhao, Z P; Wang, L M; Li, Y C; Jiang, Y; Zhang, M; Huang, Z J; Zhang, X; Li, C; Zhou, M G

2018-02-06

Objective: To evaluate the provincial representativeness of China Non-communicable and Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2013. Methods: The Sixth National Population Census data which was collected by National Bureau of Statistics of People's Republic of China was used to calculate proportion of population who aged 65 and above, mortality rate, the proportion of non-agriculture population, the illiteracy rate and urbanization rate in order to evaluate the surveillance system in each province. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to determine the statistically differences between the surveillance system and corresponding general population. Results: Among the 298 disease surveillance points (DSPs) in China Non-communicable and Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance System, there were 111, 85, and 102 DSPs located in the east, middle, and west area of China, which covering 13.90%, 11.48%, and 12.28% of the total population, respectively. The surveillance system covered 169 million of the population of China, accounting for 12.70% of Chinese population. The number of DSPs by provinces ranges from 6 (Hainan, Qinghai, and Ningxia) to 14 (Shandong, Guangdong and Henan). It indicated that mortality rate (DSP: 0.238%; Province: 0.482%) and the illiteracy rate (DSP: 15.54%; Province: 26.22%) among DSPs in Tibet were significantly lower than the provincial level, on the other hand, the proportion of non-agriculture population among DSPs (40.6%) was significantly higher than the provincial level (18.8%). The urbanization rate among Jiangxi DSPs (43.4%) was significantly lower than the provincial level (59.9%). The proportion of non-agriculture population among Shandong DSPs (32.8%) was significantly higher than the provincial level (24.2%), however, the illiteracy rate among Shandong DSPs (3.86%) was significantly lower than the provincial level (5.25%). Other than the provinces mentioned above, there was no statistical differences ( P> 0.05) among proportions of population who aged 65 and above, mortality rates, the proportions of non-agriculture population, the illiteracy rates and urbanization rate between provincial surveillance system and corresponding area. Conclusion: Other than 3 provinces, in general, China Non-communicable and Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance System had provincial representativeness.

Serum magnesium is associated with the risk of dementia.

PubMed

Kieboom, Brenda C T; Licher, Silvan; Wolters, Frank J; Ikram, M Kamran; Hoorn, Ewout J; Zietse, Robert; Stricker, Bruno H; Ikram, M Arfan

2017-10-17

To determine if serum magnesium levels are associated with the risk of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease. Within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, we measured serum magnesium levels in 9,569 participants, free from dementia at baseline (1997-2008). Participants were subsequently followed up for incident dementia, determined according to the DSM-III-R criteria, until January 1, 2015. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to associate quintiles of serum magnesium with incident all-cause dementia. We used the third quintile as a reference group and adjusted for age, sex, Rotterdam Study cohort, educational level, cardiovascular risk factors, kidney function, comorbidities, other electrolytes, and diuretic use. Our study population had a mean age of 64.9 years and 56.6% were women. During a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 823 participants were diagnosed with all-cause dementia. Both low serum magnesium levels (≤0.79 mmol/L) and high serum magnesium levels (≥0.90 mmol/L) were associated with an increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.69, and HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.02-1.67, respectively). Both low and high serum magnesium levels are associated with an increased risk of all-cause dementia. Our results warrant replication in other population-based studies. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Integrating mechanistic and polymorphism data to characterize human genetic susceptibility for environmental chemical risk assessment in the 21st century

EPA Science Inventory

Response to environmental chemicals can vary widely among individuals and between population groups. In human health risk assessment, data on susceptibility can be utilized by deriving risk levels based on a study of a susceptible population and/or an uncertainty factor may be ap...

Impact of cardiovascular risk factors on medical expenditure: evidence from epidemiological studies analysing data on health checkups and medical insurance.

PubMed

Nakamura, Koshi

2014-01-01

Concerns have increasingly been raised about the medical economic burden in Japan, of which approximately 20% is attributable to cardiovascular disease, including coronary heart disease and stroke. Because the management of risk factors is essential for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, it is important to understand the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and medical expenditure in the Japanese population. However, only a few Japanese epidemiological studies analysing data on health checkups and medical insurance have provided evidence on this topic. Patients with cardiovascular risk factors, including obesity, hypertension, and diabetes, may incur medical expenditures through treatment of the risk factors themselves and through procedures for associated diseases that usually require hospitalization and sometimes result in death. Untreated risk factors may cause medical expenditure surges, mainly due to long-term hospitalization, more often than risk factors preventively treated by medication. On an individual patient level, medical expenditures increase with the number of concomitant cardiovascular risk factors. For single risk factors, personal medical expenditure may increase with the severity of that factor. However, on a population level, the medical economic burden attributable to cardiovascular risk factors results largely from a single, particularly prevalent risk factor, especially from mildly-to-moderately abnormal levels of the factor. Therefore, cardiovascular risk factors require management on the basis of both a cost-effective strategy of treating high-risk patients and a population strategy for reducing both the ill health and medical economic burdens that result from cardiovascular disease.

Adverse Outcome Pathways and Ecological Risk Assessment: Bridging to Population Level Effects: Report of Pellston Workgroup 3

EPA Science Inventory

The continuing persistence and genetic diversity of populations is a key concern for environmental regulations. Population-level responses integrate the cumulative effects of chemical stressors on individuals as those individuals interact with and are affected by their con-speci...

Childhood leukaemia in areas with different radon levels: a spatial and temporal analysis using GIS.

PubMed

Kohli, S; Noorlind Brage, H; Löfman, O

2000-11-01

To evaluate the relation between exposure to ground radon levels and leukaemia among children using existing population and disease registers. Ecological correlation study. The county of Ostergötland in Sweden. Every child born in the county between 1979 and 1992 was mapped to the property centroid coordinates by linking addresses in the population and property registers. Population maps were overlaid with radon maps and exposure at birth and each subsequent year was quantified as high, normal, low or unknown. This was analysed with data from the tumour registry. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated using the age and sex specific rates for Sweden for the year 1995. 90 malignancies occurred among 53 146 children (498 887 person years) who formed the study population. SMRs for acute lymphatic leukaemia (ALL) among children born in high, normal and low risk areas were 1.43, 1.17 and 0.25 respectively. The relative risk for the normal risk group and high risk group as compared with the low risk group was 4.64 (95% CI 1.29, 28.26) and 5. 67 (95% CI 1.06, 42.27). The association between ALL and continued residence at normal or high risk areas showed a similar trend. No association between radon risk levels and any other malignancy was seen. Children born in and staying at areas where the risk from ground radon has been classified as low are less likely to develop ALL than those born in areas classified as normal and high risk.

Perception of Lung Cancer Risk: Impact of Smoking Status and Nicotine Dependence.

PubMed

Greillier, Laurent; Cortot, Alexis B; Viguier, Jérôme; Brignoli-Guibaudet, Lysel; Lhomel, Christine; Eisinger, François; Morère, Jean-François; Couraud, Sébastien

2018-03-05

The general population is nowadays well aware that tobacco smoking dramatically increases the risk of developing lung cancer. We hypothesized that a personal history of smoking and the level of nicotine dependence in current smokers may affect the perception of this risk among healthy individuals. The fourth French nationwide observational survey, EDIFICE 4, was conducted by telephone among a representative sample of individuals (N = 1602) aged between 40 and 75 years. Interviewees were asked about their smoking habits, perception of the risk of lung cancer, and nicotine dependence (Fagerström test). Regardless of their smoking status or level of nicotine dependence, the majority (96%) of our study population (N = 1463) acknowledged that tobacco smoking is a major risk factor for lung cancer. For 34% of all respondents, smoking ≤ 10 cigarettes per day does not carry any risk of lung cancer. Only half the current smokers considered themselves to be at higher risk of lung cancer than the average-risk population. The majority of current cigarette smokers with a nicotine dependence considered themselves to be at higher risk for lung cancer while only 37% of non-nicotine-dependent individuals had the same perception (P < 0.01). Current smokers were more likely to consider a screening examination than former smokers and never-smokers. However, the intention to undergo screening was not significantly affected by the level of nicotine dependence. Awareness campaigns may first have to overcome misconceptions about light smoking and, secondly, to target specific populations (heavy smokers, those with a long history, highly dependent smokers).

Gender-specific association of oxidative stress and inflammation with cardiovascular risk factors in Arab population.

PubMed

Khadir, Abdelkrim; Tiss, Ali; Kavalakatt, Sina; Behbehani, Kazem; Dehbi, Mohammed; Elkum, Naser

2015-01-01

The impact of gender difference on the association between metabolic stress and cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. We have investigated, for the first time, the gender effect on the oxidative and inflammatory stress responses and assessed their correlation with classical cardiometabolites in Arab population. A total of 378 adult Arab participants (193 females) were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. Plasma levels of CRP, IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, ROS, TBARs, and PON1 were measured and correlated with anthropometric and cardiometabolite parameters of the study population. Compared to females, males had significantly higher FBG, HbA1c, TG, and blood pressure but lower BMI, TC, and HDL (P < 0.05). After adjustment for BMI and WC, females had higher levels of ROS, TBARS, and CRP (P < 0.001) whereas males had increased levels of IL-8, IL-6, and TNF-α (P < 0.05). Moreover, after adjustment for age, BMI, and gender, the levels of TNF-α, IL-6, and ROS were associated with central obesity but not general obesity. Inflammation and oxidative stress contribution to CVD risk in Arab population linked to gender and this risk is better reflected by central obesity. Arab females might be at risk of CVD complications due to increased oxidative stress.

Knowledge and awareness of and perception towards cardiovascular disease risk in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Wekesah, Frederick; Browne, Joyce L.; Agyemang, Charles; Agyei-Baffour, Peter; Aikins, Ama de-Graft; Smit, Henriette A.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin

2017-01-01

Introduction Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the most common cause of non-communicable disease mortality in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Gaps in knowledge of CVD conditions and their risk factors are important barriers in effective prevention and treatment. Yet, evidence on the awareness and knowledge level of CVD and associated risk factors among populations of SSA is scarce. This review aimed to synthesize available evidence of the level of knowledge of and perceptions towards CVDs and risk factors in the SSA region. Methods Five databases were searched for publications up to December 2016. Narrative synthesis was conducted for knowledge level of CVDs, knowledge of risk factors and clinical signs, factors influencing knowledge of CVDs and source of health information on CVDs. The review was registered with Prospero (CRD42016049165). Results Of 2212 titles and abstracts screened, 45 full-text papers were retrieved and reviewed and 20 were included: eighteen quantitative and two qualitative studies. Levels of knowledge and awareness for CVD and risk factors were generally low, coupled with poor perception. Most studies reported less than half of their study participants having good knowledge of CVDs and/or risk factors. Proportion of participants who were unable to identify a single risk factor and clinical symptom for CVDs ranged from 1.8% in a study among hospital staff in Nigeria to a high of 73% in a population-based survey in Uganda and 7% among University staff in Nigeria to 75.1% in a general population in Uganda respectively. High educational attainment and place of residence had a significant influence on the levels of knowledge for CVDs among SSA populations. Conclusion Low knowledge of CVDs, risk factors and clinical symptoms is strongly associated with the low levels of educational attainment and rural residency in the region. These findings provide useful information for implementers of interventions targeted at the prevention and control of CVDs, and encourages them to incorporate health promotion and awareness campaigns in order to enhance knowledge and awareness of CVDs in the region. PMID:29232703

Tuberculosis in vulnerable populations in Eastern Mediterranean Region-Implications for control.

PubMed

Shakoor, Sadia; Hasan, Rumina

2016-12-01

Socially and economically disadvantaged or "vulnerable" people are at high risk of tuberculosis (TB) and also contribute to active chains of TB transmission. Included in such vulnerable populations are children, women, prisoners, people living with human immunodeficiency virus, the homeless, and displaced people. The ongoing active transmission of TB among such populations is made more difficult to assess and control by difficult access, health inequities, poverty, and other chronic and debilitating health conditions at individual, domestic, and community levels. The 22 Eastern Mediterranean Region member states encompass diverse sociopolitical and socioeconomic situations with far-reaching effects on vulnerable populations in each country, thereby threatening the control of TB. Here, we examined the impact of these populations on the incidence and transmission of TB in light of these risks. Approximately 60% of the regional population comprises children and adolescents ⩽19years of age, increasing the population at risk. Additionally, up to 11% of the population suffers from mental- or substance-abuse disorders, while >50% of the world refugee populations live in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. TB control requires a strategic approach at the country level to access these vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2016.

Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Tool for Local-Scale Flood Risk Assessments in Coastal Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulp, S. A.; Strauss, B.

2015-12-01

Local decision makers in coastal cities require accurate, accessible, and thorough assessments of flood exposure risk within their individual municipality, in their efforts to mitigate against damage due to future sea level rise. To fill this need, we have developed Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, an interactive data toolkit which presents our sea level rise and storm surge analysis for every coastal town, city, county, and state within the USA. Using this tool, policy makers can easily zoom in on their local place of interest to receive a detailed flood risk assessment, which synthesizes a wide range of features including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and many other critical facilities. Risk Finder can also be used to identify specific points of interest in danger of exposure at different flood levels. Additionally, this tool provides localized storm surge probabilities and sea level rise projections at tidal gauges along the coast, so that users can quickly understand the risk of flooding in their area over the coming decades.

Viability criteria for steelhead of the south-central and southern California coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boughton, David A.; Adams, Peter B.; Anderson, Eric; Fusaro, Craig; Keller, Edward A.; Kelley, Elsie; Lentsch, Leo; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Perry, Katie; Regan, Helen; Smith, Jerry; Swift, Camm C.; Thompson, Lisa; Watson, Fred

2007-01-01

Recovery planning for threatened and endangered steelhead requires measurable, objective criteria for determining an acceptably low risk of extinction. Here we propose viability criteria for two levels of biological organization: individual populations, and groups of populations within the SouthCentral/Southern California Coast Steelhead Recovery Planning Domain. For populations, we adapt criteria commonly used by the IUCN (The World Conservation Union) for identifying at-risk species. For groups of populations we implement a diversity-based “representation and redundancy rule,” in which diversity includes both life-history diversity and biogeographic groupings of populations. The resulting criteria have the potential for straightforward assessment of the risks posed by evolutionary, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic factors; and are designed to use data that are readily collected. However, our prescriptive approach led to one criterion whose threshold could not yet be specified due to inadequate data, and others in which the simplicity of the criteria may render them inefficient for populations with stable run sizes or stable life-history polymorphisms. Both of these problems could likely be solved by directed programs of research and monitoring aimed at developing more efficient (but equally risk-averse) “performance-based criteria.” Of particular utility would be data on the natural fluctuations of populations, research into the stabilizing influence of life-history polymorphisms, and research on the implications of drought, wildfires, and fluvial sediment regimes. Research on estuarine habitat could also yield useful information on the generality and reliability of its role as nursery habitat. Currently, risk assessment at the population level is not possible due to data deficiency, highlighting the need to implement a comprehensive effort to monitor run sizes, anadromous fractions, spawner densities and perhaps marine survival. Assessment at the group level indicates a priority for securing inland populations in the southern Coast Ranges and Transverse Ranges, and a need to maintain not just the fluvial-anadromous life-history form, but also lagoon-anadromous and freshwater-resident forms in each population.

Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk--a method for assessment of preventive care.

PubMed

Strömberg, Ulf; Holmn, Anders; Magnusson, Kerstin; Twetman, Svante

2012-06-11

Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006) and 10,927 (2010) children between 3 to 6 years of age (~77% of the eligible population) from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region). Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI® ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0) children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level) smoothed relative risks (SmRRs) increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive care in child populations.

Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

PubMed

Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E; Regan, Tracey J; Regan, Helen M

2018-01-22

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates, particularly when available evidence indicates a potential transition to higher risk categories. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

[Spanish adaptation of the 2016 European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice].

PubMed

Royo-Bordonada, Miguel Ángel; Armario, Pedro; Lobos Bejarano, José María; Pedro-Botet, Juan; Villar Álvarez, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Brotons Cuixart, Carlos; Cortés, Olga; Serrano, Benilde; Camafort Babkowski, Miguel; Gil Núñez, Antonio; Pérez, Antonio; Maiques, Antonio; de Santiago Nocito, Ana; de Castro, Almudena; Alegría, Eduardo; Baeza, Ciro; Herranz, María; Sans, Susana; Campos, Pilar

The VI European Guidelines for Cardiovascular Prevention recommend combining population and high-risk strategies with lifestyle changes as a cornerstone of prevention, and propose the SCORE function to quantify cardiovascular risk. The guidelines highlight disease specific interventions, and conditions as women, young people and ethnic minorities. Screening for subclinical atherosclerosis with noninvasive imaging techniques is not recommended. The guidelines distinguish four risk levels (very high, high, moderate and low) with therapeutic objectives for lipid control according to risk. Diabetes mellitus confers a high risk, except for subjects with type 2 diabetes with less than <10 years of evolution, without other risk factors or complications, or type 1 diabetes of short evolution without complications. The decision to start pharmacological treatment of arterial hypertension will depend on the blood pressure level and the cardiovascular risk, taking into account the lesion of target organs. The guidelines don't recommend antiplatelet drugs in primary prevention because of the increased bleeding risk. The low adherence to the medication requires simplified therapeutic regimes and to identify and combat its causes. The guidelines highlight the responsibility of health professionals to take an active role in advocating evidence-based interventions at the population level, and propose effective interventions, at individual and population level, to promote a healthy diet, the practice of physical activity, the cessation of smoking and the protection against alcohol abuse. Copyright © 2017. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

[Spanish adaptation of the 2016 European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice].

PubMed

Royo-Bordonada, M Á; Armario, P; Lobos Bejarano, J M; Pedro-Botet, J; Villar Alvarez, F; Elosua, R; Brotons Cuixart, C; Cortés, O; Serrano, B; Cammafort Babkowski, M; Gil Núñez, A; Pérez, A; Maiques, A; de Santiago Nocito, A; Castro, A; Alegría, E; Baeza, C; Herranz, M; Sans, S; Campos, P

The VI European Guidelines for Cardiovascular Prevention recommend combining population and high-risk strategies with lifestyle changes as a cornerstone of prevention, and propose the SCORE function to quantify cardiovascular risk. The guidelines highlight disease specific interventions, and conditions as women, young people and ethnic minorities. Screening for subclinical atherosclerosis with noninvasive imaging techniques is not recommended. The guidelines distinguish four risk levels (very high, high, moderate and low) with therapeutic objectives for lipid control according to risk. Diabetes mellitus confers a high risk, except for subjects with type 2 diabetes with less than <10 years of evolution, without other risk factors or complications, or type 1 diabetes of short evolution without complications. The decision to start pharmacological treatment of arterial hypertension will depend on the blood pressure level and the cardiovascular risk, taking into account the lesion of target organs. The guidelines don't recommend antiplatelet drugs in primary prevention because of the increased bleeding risk. The low adherence to the medication requires simplified therapeutic regimes and to identify and combat its causes. The guidelines highlight the responsibility of health professionals to take an active role in advocating evidence-based interventions at the population level, and propose effective interventions, at individual and population level, to promote a healthy diet, the practice of physical activity, the cessation of smoking and the protection against alcohol abuse. Copyright © 2016. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

Spanish adaptation of the 2016 European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice.

PubMed

Royo-Bordonada, M Á; Armario, P; Lobos Bejarano, J M; Pedro-Botet, J; Villar Alvarez, F; Elosua, R; Brotons Cuixart, C; Cortés, O; Serrano, B; Camafort Babkowski, M; Gil Núñez, A; Pérez, A; Maiques, A; de Santiago Nocito, A; Castro, A; Alegría, E; Baeza, C; Herranz, M; Sans, S; Campos, P

The VI European Guidelines for Cardiovascular Prevention recommend combining population and high-risk strategies with lifestyle changes as a cornerstone of prevention, and propose the SCORE function to quantify cardiovascular risk. The guidelines highlight disease specific interventions, and conditions as women, young people and ethnic minorities. Screening for subclinical atherosclerosis with noninvasive imaging techniques is not recommended. The guidelines distinguish four risk levels (very high, high, moderate and low) with therapeutic objectives for lipid control according to risk. Diabetes mellitus confers a high risk, except for subjects with type 2 diabetes with less than <10 years of evolution, without other risk factors or complications, or type 1 diabetes of short evolution without complications. The decision to start pharmacological treatment of arterial hypertension will depend on the blood pressure level and the cardiovascular risk, taking into account the lesion of target organs. The guidelines don't recommend antiplatelet drugs in primary prevention because of the increased bleeding risk. The low adherence to the medication requires simplified therapeutic regimes and to identify and combat its causes. The guidelines highlight the responsibility of health professionals to take an active role in advocating evidence-based interventions at the population level, and propose effective interventions, at individual and population level, to promote a healthy diet, the practice of physical activity, the cessation of smoking and the protection against alcohol abuse. Copyright © 2017. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

Community-Level Effects of Individual and Peer Risk and Protective Factors on Adolescent Substance Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monahan, Kathryn; Egan, Elizabeth A.; Van Horn, M. Lee; Arthur, Michael; Hawkins, David

2011-01-01

The association between community-aggregated levels of individual and peer risk and protective factors and prevalence of adolescent substance use was examined in repeated cross-sectional data among youth in 41 communities ranging in population from 1,578 to 106,221. The association between community levels of these risk and protective factors in…

Identification of Early Risk Factors for Developmental Delay

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delgado, Christine E. F.; Vagi, Sara J.; Scott, Keith G.

2007-01-01

Statewide birth certificate and preschool exceptionality records were integrated to identify risk factors for developmental delay (DD). Epidemiological methods were used to investigate both individual-level and population-level risk for DD associated with a number of child and maternal factors. Infants born with very low birth weight were at the…

Residual Cardiovascular Risk in Chronic Kidney Disease: Role of High-density Lipoprotein

PubMed Central

Kon, Valentina; Yang, Haichun; Fazio, Sergio

2016-01-01

Although reducing low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels with lipid-lowering agents (statins) decreases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, a substantial residual risk (up to 70% of baseline) remains after treatment in most patient populations. High-density lipoprotein (HDL) is a potential contributor to residual risk, and low HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) is an established risk factor for CVD. However, in contrast to conventional lipid-lowering therapies, recent studies show that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C levels do not bring about clinical benefits. These observations have given rise to the concept of dysfunctional HDL where increases in serum HDL-C may not be beneficial because HDL loss of function is not corrected by or even intensified by the therapy. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases CVD risk, and patients whose CKD progresses to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis are at the highest CVD risk of any patient type studied. The ESRD population is also unique in its lack of significant benefit from standard lipid-lowering interventions. Recent studies indicate that HDL-C levels do not predict CVD in the CKD population. Moreover, CKD profoundly alters metabolism and composition of HDL particles and impairs their protective effects on functions such as cellular cholesterol efflux, endothelial protection, and control of inflammation and oxidation. Thus, CKD-induced perturbations in HDL may contribute to the excess CVD in CKD patients. Understanding the mechanisms of vascular protection in renal disease can present new therapeutic targets for intervention in this population. PMID:26009251

Recovery based on plot experiments is a poor predictor of landscape-level population impacts of agricultural pesticides.

PubMed

Topping, Christopher John; Kjaer, Lene Jung; Hommen, Udo; Høye, Toke Thomas; Preuss, Thomas G; Sibly, Richard M; van Vliet, Peter

2014-07-01

Current European Union regulatory risk assessment allows application of pesticides provided that recovery of nontarget arthropods in-crop occurs within a year. Despite the long-established theory of source-sink dynamics, risk assessment ignores depletion of surrounding populations and typical field trials are restricted to plot-scale experiments. In the present study, the authors used agent-based modeling of 2 contrasting invertebrates, a spider and a beetle, to assess how the area of pesticide application and environmental half-life affect the assessment of recovery at the plot scale and impact the population at the landscape scale. Small-scale plot experiments were simulated for pesticides with different application rates and environmental half-lives. The same pesticides were then evaluated at the landscape scale (10 km × 10 km) assuming continuous year-on-year usage. The authors' results show that recovery time estimated from plot experiments is a poor indicator of long-term population impact at the landscape level and that the spatial scale of pesticide application strongly determines population-level impact. This raises serious doubts as to the utility of plot-recovery experiments in pesticide regulatory risk assessment for population-level protection. Predictions from the model are supported by empirical evidence from a series of studies carried out in the decade starting in 1988. The issues raised then can now be addressed using simulation. Prediction of impacts at landscape scales should be more widely used in assessing the risks posed by environmental stressors. © 2014 SETAC.

Oil Spills and Marine Mammals in British Columbia, Canada: Development and Application of a Risk-Based Conceptual Framework.

PubMed

Jarvela Rosenberger, Adrianne L; MacDuffee, Misty; Rosenberger, Andrew G J; Ross, Peter S

2017-07-01

Marine mammals are inherently vulnerable to oil spills. We developed a conceptual framework to evaluate the impacts of potential oil exposure on marine mammals and applied it to 21 species inhabiting coastal British Columbia (BC), Canada. Oil spill vulnerability was determined by examining both the likelihood of species-specific (individual) oil exposure and the consequent likelihood of population-level effects. Oil exposure pathways, ecology, and physiological characteristics were first used to assign species-specific vulnerability rankings. Baleen whales were found to be highly vulnerable due to blowhole breathing, surface filter feeding, and invertebrate prey. Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) were ranked as highly vulnerable due to their time spent at the ocean surface, dense pelage, and benthic feeding techniques. Species-specific vulnerabilities were considered to estimate the likelihood of population-level effects occurring after oil exposure. Killer whale (Orcinus orca) populations were deemed at highest risk due to small population sizes, complex social structure, long lives, slow reproductive turnover, and dietary specialization. Finally, we related the species-specific and population-level vulnerabilities. In BC, vulnerability was deemed highest for Northern and Southern Resident killer whales and sea otters, followed by Bigg's killer whales and Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus). Our findings challenge the typical "indicator species" approach routinely used and underscore the need to examine marine mammals at a species and population level for risk-based oil spill predictions. This conceptual framework can be combined with spill probabilities and volumes to develop more robust risk assessments and may be applied elsewhere to identify vulnerability themes for marine mammals.

Community Structure in Social Networks: Applications for Epidemiological Modelling

PubMed Central

Kitchovitch, Stephan; Liò, Pietro

2011-01-01

During an infectious disease outbreak people will often change their behaviour to reduce their risk of infection. Furthermore, in a given population, the level of perceived risk of infection will vary greatly amongst individuals. The difference in perception could be due to a variety of factors including varying levels of information regarding the pathogen, quality of local healthcare, availability of preventative measures, etc. In this work we argue that we can split a social network, representing a population, into interacting communities with varying levels of awareness of the disease. We construct a theoretical population and study which such communities suffer most of the burden of the disease and how their awareness affects the spread of infection. We aim to gain a better understanding of the effects that community-structured networks and variations in awareness, or risk perception, have on the disease dynamics and to promote more community-resolved modelling in epidemiology. PMID:21789238

Multigenerational Exposure of the Estuarine Sheepshead Minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus) to 17β-estradiol. II. Population-Level Effects Through Two Life Cycles

EPA Science Inventory

The evaluation of multi-generation, population-level impacts is particularly important in the risk assessment of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) because adverse effects may not be evident during the first generation of exposure. Population models were developed for the shee...

14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... within the populated area (A) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Oak Ridge National... including 100 nm from the launch point are required at the U.S. census block group level. Population data... populated area (N) Within 100 nm of the launch point: U.S. census data at the census block-group level...

14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... within the populated area (A) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Oak Ridge National... including 100 nm from the launch point are required at the U.S. census block group level. Population data... populated area (N) Within 100 nm of the launch point: U.S. census data at the census block-group level...

14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... within the populated area (A) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Oak Ridge National... including 100 nm from the launch point are required at the U.S. census block group level. Population data... populated area (N) Within 100 nm of the launch point: U.S. census data at the census block-group level...

14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... within the populated area (A) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Oak Ridge National... including 100 nm from the launch point are required at the U.S. census block group level. Population data... populated area (N) Within 100 nm of the launch point: U.S. census data at the census block-group level...

Racial differences in venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Zakai, N A; McClure, L A

2011-10-01

The incidence of venous thrombosis (VTE) varies by race, with African-Americans having over 5-fold greater incidence than Asian-ancestry populations, and an intermediate risk for European and Hispanic populations. Known racial differences in genetic polymorphisms associated with thrombosis do not account for this gradient of risk, nor do known racial variations in environmental risk factors. Data on the incidence of and risk factors for VTE outside of Europe and North America and in non-European ancestry populations are sparse. Common genetic polymorphisms in European-Ancestry populations, such as factor V Leiden and prothrombin G20210A, and environmental risk factors, such as obesity, may account for some of the increased risk in European populations, and high factor VIII, high von Willebrand factor and low protein C levels and increased prevalence of obesity may explain some of the increased risk in African-Americans. The low rates in Asian populations may be partially explained by low clinical suspicion in a perceived low-risk population and lack of access to healthcare in other populations. As risk factors for thrombosis, such as surgery and treatment for cancer, are applicable to more people, as obesity increases in prevalence in the developing world, and as surveillance systems for VTE improve, VTE may increase in previously low-risk populations. While differences in VTE by race due to genetic predisposition will probably always be present, understanding the reasons for racial differences in VTE will help providers develop strategies to minimize VTE in all populations. © 2011 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Cholesterol, APOE genotype, and Alzheimer disease: an epidemiologic study of Nigerian Yoruba.

PubMed

Hall, K; Murrell, J; Ogunniyi, A; Deeg, M; Baiyewu, O; Gao, S; Gureje, O; Dickens, J; Evans, R; Smith-Gamble, V; Unverzagt, F W; Shen, J; Hendrie, H

2006-01-24

To examine the relationship between cholesterol and other lipids, APOE genotype, and risk of Alzheimer disease (AD) in a population-based study of elderly Yoruba living in Ibadan, Nigeria. Blood samples and clinical data were collected from Yoruba study participants aged 70 years and older (N = 1,075) as part of the Indianapolis-Ibadan Dementia Project, a longitudinal epidemiologic study of AD. Cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and triglyceride levels were measured in fasting blood samples. DNA was extracted and APOE was genotyped. Diagnoses of AD were made by consensus using National Institute of Neurologic Disorders/Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria. Logistic regression models showed interaction after adjusting for age and gender between APOE-epsilon4 genotype and biomarkers in the risk of AD cholesterol*genotype (p = 0.022), LDL*genotype (p= 0.018), and triglyceride*genotype (p = 0.036). Increasing levels of cholesterol and LDL were associated with increased risk of AD in individuals without the APOE-epsilon4 allele, but not in those with APOE-epsilon4. There was no significant association between levels of triglycerides and AD risk in those without APOE-epsilon4. There was a significant interaction between cholesterol, APOE-epsilon4, and the risk of Alzheimer disease (AD) in the Yoruba, a population that has lower cholesterol levels and lower incidence rates of AD compared to African Americans. APOE status needs to be considered when assessing the relationship between lipid levels and AD risk in population studies.

Cholesterol, APOE genotype, and Alzheimer disease

PubMed Central

Hall, K.; Murrell, J.; Ogunniyi, A.; Deeg, M.; Baiyewu, O.; Gao, S.; Gureje, O.; Dickens, J.; Evans, R.; Smith-Gamble, V.; Unverzagt, F.W.; Shen, J.; Hendrie, H.

2010-01-01

Objective To examine the relationship between cholesterol and other lipids, APOE genotype, and risk of Alzheimer disease (AD) in a population-based study of elderly Yoruba living in Ibadan, Nigeria. Methods Blood samples and clinical data were collected from Yoruba study participants aged 70 years and older (N = 1,075) as part of the Indianapolis-Ibadan Dementia Project, a longitudinal epidemiologic study of AD. Cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and triglyceride levels were measured in fasting blood samples. DNA was extracted and APOE was genotyped. Diagnoses of AD were made by consensus using National Institute of Neurologic Disorders/Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria. Results Logistic regression models showed interaction after adjusting for age and gender between APOE-ε4 genotype and biomarkers in the risk of AD cholesterol*genotype (p = 0.022), LDL*genotype (p = 0.018), and triglyceride*genotype (p = 0.036). Increasing levels of cholesterol and LDL were associated with increased risk of AD in individuals without the APOE-ε4 allele, but not in those with APOE-ε4. There was no significant association between levels of triglycerides and AD risk in those without APOE-ε4. Conclusions There was a significant interaction between cholesterol, APOE-ε4, and the risk of Alzheimer disease (AD) in the Yoruba, a population that has lower cholesterol levels and lower incidence rates of AD compared to African Americans. APOE status needs to be considered when assessing the relationship between lipid levels and AD risk in population studies. PMID:16434658

ESTIMATION OF AQUATIC SPECIES SENSITIVITY AND POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSES

EPA Science Inventory

Determining species sensitivity and population-level responses of aquatic organisms to contaminants are critical components of criteria development and ecological risk assessment. To address data gaps in species sensitivity, the U.S. EPA developed the Interspecies Correlation Est...

A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives.

EPA Science Inventory

The value of models that link organism‐level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism&#...

[Risk analysis of nitrate contamination in wells supplying drinking water in a rural area of Chile].

PubMed

Arumi, José Luis; Núñez, Jorge; Salgado, Luis; Claret, Marcelino

2006-12-01

To assess the risk associated with nitrate contamination of wells that supply drinking water in the rural, Parral region of central Chile. The nitrate concentration levels were determined using water samples from 94 wells. An analysis of the distribution of nitrate concentration levels was performed in order to assess possible geographic correlations. For the risk analysis, two exposure situations were identified among the population (for adults and for infants), and the health risks were mapped. Fourteen percent of the wells studied had nitrate concentration levels greater than what the Chilean health standards allow for drinking water. There was no geographic correlation for the nitrate concentration levels. The mean hazard quotient (HQ) for adults in the study area was 0.12, indicating an absence of risk for this population group. For infants, the HQ values had a maximum value of 3.1 in some locations, but the average was 0.69 (still below 1.0), indicating that the well water in the study area was generally not hazardous for infants. In the Parral region of Chile, nitrate contamination of wells is primarily linked to certain factors such as construction practices and the proximity of livestock. These factors affect the quality of drinking water in isolated cases. There was no risk found for the adult population, but there was for infants fed on formula mixed with water coming from the contaminated wells.

Childhood leukaemia in areas with different radon levels: a spatial and temporal analysis using GIS

PubMed Central

Kohli, S; Noorlind, B; Lofman, O

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES—To evaluate the relation between exposure to ground radon levels and leukaemia among children using existing population and disease registers.
DESIGN—Ecological correlation study.
SETTING—The county of Östergötland in Sweden.
METHODS—Every child born in the county between 1979 and 1992 was mapped to the property centroid coordinates by linking addresses in the population and property registers. Population maps were overlaid with radon maps and exposure at birth and each subsequent year was quantified as high, normal, low or unknown. This was analysed with data from the tumour registry. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated using the age and sex specific rates for Sweden for the year 1995.
RESULTS—90 malignancies occurred among 53 146 children (498 887 person years) who formed the study population. SMRs for acute lymphatic leukaemia (ALL) among children born in high, normal and low risk areas were 1.43, 1.17 and 0.25 respectively. The relative risk for the normal risk group and high risk group as compared with the low risk group was 4.64 (95% CI 1.29, 28.26) and 5.67 (95% CI 1.06, 42.27). The association between ALL and continued residence at normal or high risk areas showed a similar trend. No association between radon risk levels and any other malignancy was seen.
CONCLUSION—Children born in and staying at areas where the risk from ground radon has been classified as low are less likely to develop ALL than those born in areas classified as normal and high risk.


Keywords: leukaemia; cancer; radon; ionising radiation; Geographic Information Systems PMID:11027195

Comparing excess costs across multiple corporate populations.

PubMed

Wright, Douglas; Adams, Laura; Beard, Marshall J; Burton, Wayne N; Hirschland, David; McDonald, Timothy; Napier, Deborah; Galante, Salvatore; Smith, Thomas; Edington, D W

2004-09-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of health risk level to charged medical costs and determine the excess cost of higher risk individuals compared to low risk. Two years of medical claims from six corporations were used to determine costs of health risk assessment (HRA) participants and nonparticipants. A total of 165,770 employees, 21,124 of which took an HRA, were used for the study. Costs increased as risk level increased. There were no significant differences within a risk level between companies for the cost ratio. Percent of medical costs due to excess risk ranged from 15.0-30.8% for HRA participants and 23.8-38.3% for the study population. Cost patterns were consistent across companies. Excess cost as the result of increased risk level accounted for a substantial portion of the cost at each company. These results can be used to justify the need for a health-promotion program and to estimate potential savings as the result of excess risk. Even without the use of an HRA, health practitioners should feel confident stating that excess risk accounts for at least 25% to 30% of medical costs per year across a wide variety of companies, regardless of industry or demographics. The numbers can be used as a realistic estimate for any health promotion program financial proposal.

Quantitative Risk Analysis on the Transport of Dangerous Goods Through a Bi-Directional Road Tunnel.

PubMed

Caliendo, Ciro; De Guglielmo, Maria Luisa

2017-01-01

A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) regarding dangerous goods vehicles (DGVs) running through road tunnels was set up. Peak hourly traffic volumes (VHP), percentage of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), and failure of the emergency ventilation system were investigated in order to assess their impact on the risk level. The risk associated with an alternative route running completely in the open air and passing through a highly populated urban area was also evaluated. The results in terms of social risk, as F/N curves, show an increased risk level with an increase the VHP, the percentage of HGVs, and a failure of the emergency ventilation system. The risk curves of the tunnel investigated were found to lie both above and below those of the alternative route running in the open air depending on the type of dangerous goods transported. In particular, risk was found to be greater in the tunnel for two fire scenarios (no explosion). In contrast, the risk level for the exposed population was found to be greater for the alternative route in three possible accident scenarios associated with explosions and toxic releases. Therefore, one should be wary before stating that for the transport of dangerous products an itinerary running completely in the open air might be used if the latter passes through a populated area. The QRA may help decisionmakers both to implement additional safety measures and to understand whether to allow, forbid, or limit circulation of DGVs. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Work situation and self-perceived economic situation as predictors of change in burnout--a prospective general population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Norlund, Sofia; Reuterwall, Christina; Höög, Jonas; Janlert, Urban; Slunga Järvholm, Lisbeth

2015-04-03

Sick leave rates due to mental and behavioural disorders have increased in Sweden during the last decades. The aim of this prospective study was to investigate changes in the level of burnout in a working subset of the general population and to identify how such changes relate to changes in work situation and self-perceived economic situation. A cohort of 1000 persons from a subset of the 2004 northern Sweden MONICA (Multinational Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease) general population survey was followed over a five-year period (2004-2009). In total, 623 persons (323 women and 300 men) were included in the analysis. Burnout levels were measured at baseline and follow-up using the Shirom Melamed Burnout Questionnaire. Risk factors were assessed at both measuring points. In the whole study cohort, a small (-0.15) but statistically significant reduction in burnout level was found. No differences in change of burnout were found between men and women. Constant strain at work, an increased risk of unemployment, and a perceived worsening of economic situation during the study time period were related to an increased burnout level. An accumulation of these risk factors was associated with increased burnout level. Risk factors in work situation and self-perceived economy are related to changes in burnout level, and special attention should be directed towards persons exposed to multiple risk factors.

Insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) cut-off values and the metabolic syndrome in a general adult population: effect of gender and age: EPIRCE cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Insulin resistance has been associated with metabolic and hemodynamic alterations and higher cardio metabolic risk. There is great variability in the threshold homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) levels to define insulin resistance. The purpose of this study was to describe the influence of age and gender in the estimation of HOMA-IR optimal cut-off values to identify subjects with higher cardio metabolic risk in a general adult population. Methods It included 2459 adults (range 20–92 years, 58.4% women) in a random Spanish population sample. As an accurate indicator of cardio metabolic risk, Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), both by International Diabetes Federation criteria and by Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, were used. The effect of age was analyzed in individuals with and without diabetes mellitus separately. ROC regression methodology was used to evaluate the effect of age on HOMA-IR performance in classifying cardio metabolic risk. Results In Spanish population the threshold value of HOMA-IR drops from 3.46 using 90th percentile criteria to 2.05 taking into account of MetS components. In non-diabetic women, but no in men, we found a significant non-linear effect of age on the accuracy of HOMA-IR. In non-diabetic men, the cut-off values were 1.85. All values are between 70th-75th percentiles of HOMA-IR levels in adult Spanish population. Conclusions The consideration of the cardio metabolic risk to establish the cut-off points of HOMA-IR, to define insulin resistance instead of using a percentile of the population distribution, would increase its clinical utility in identifying those patients in whom the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors imparts an increased metabolic and cardiovascular risk. The threshold levels must be modified by age in non-diabetic women. PMID:24131857

Insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) cut-off values and the metabolic syndrome in a general adult population: effect of gender and age: EPIRCE cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Gayoso-Diz, Pilar; Otero-González, Alfonso; Rodriguez-Alvarez, María Xosé; Gude, Francisco; García, Fernando; De Francisco, Angel; Quintela, Arturo González

2013-10-16

Insulin resistance has been associated with metabolic and hemodynamic alterations and higher cardio metabolic risk. There is great variability in the threshold homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) levels to define insulin resistance. The purpose of this study was to describe the influence of age and gender in the estimation of HOMA-IR optimal cut-off values to identify subjects with higher cardio metabolic risk in a general adult population. It included 2459 adults (range 20-92 years, 58.4% women) in a random Spanish population sample. As an accurate indicator of cardio metabolic risk, Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), both by International Diabetes Federation criteria and by Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, were used. The effect of age was analyzed in individuals with and without diabetes mellitus separately. ROC regression methodology was used to evaluate the effect of age on HOMA-IR performance in classifying cardio metabolic risk. In Spanish population the threshold value of HOMA-IR drops from 3.46 using 90th percentile criteria to 2.05 taking into account of MetS components. In non-diabetic women, but no in men, we found a significant non-linear effect of age on the accuracy of HOMA-IR. In non-diabetic men, the cut-off values were 1.85. All values are between 70th-75th percentiles of HOMA-IR levels in adult Spanish population. The consideration of the cardio metabolic risk to establish the cut-off points of HOMA-IR, to define insulin resistance instead of using a percentile of the population distribution, would increase its clinical utility in identifying those patients in whom the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors imparts an increased metabolic and cardiovascular risk. The threshold levels must be modified by age in non-diabetic women.

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings

PubMed Central

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities’ preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities’ capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change. PMID:27649547

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

PubMed

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

Lifetime risk of stroke in young-aged and middle-aged Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Liu, Jing; Wang, Wei; Wang, Miao; Qi, Yue; Xie, Wuxiang; Li, Yan; Sun, Jiayi; Liu, Jun; Zhao, Dong

2016-01-01

Objective: Stroke is a major cause of premature death in China. Early prevention of stroke requires a more effective method to differentiate the stroke risk among young-aged and middle-aged individuals than the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to establish a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts for the young-aged and middle-aged population in China. Methods: The Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study participants (n = 21 953) aged 35–84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for 18 years (263 016 person-years). Modified Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate the mean lifetime stroke risk up to age of 80 years and the lifetime stroke risk according to major stroke risk factors for the population aged 35–60 years. Results: A total of 917 participants developed first-ever strokes. For the participants aged 35–40 years (98 stroke cases), the lifetime stroke risk was 18.0 and 14.7% in men and women, respectively. Blood pressure most effectively discriminated the lifetime stroke risk. The lifetime risk of stroke for the individuals with all risk factors optimal was 8–10 times lower compared with those with two or more high risk factors at age 35–60 years at baseline. Conclusion: In young-aged and middle-aged population, the lifetime stroke risk will keep very low if major risk factors especially blood pressure level is at optimal levels, but the risk substantially increases even with a slight elevation of major risk factors, which could not be identified using 10-year risk estimation. PMID:27512963

Institutional facilitators and barriers to local public health preparedness planning for vulnerable and at-risk populations.

PubMed

Bevc, Christine A; Simon, Matthew C; Montoya, Tanya A; Horney, Jennifer A

2014-01-01

Numerous institutional facilitators and barriers to preparedness planning exist at the local level for vulnerable and at-risk populations. Findings of this evaluation study contribute to ongoing practice-based efforts to improve response services and address public health preparedness planning and training as they relate to vulnerable and at-risk populations. From January 2012 through June 2013, we conducted a multilevel, mixed-methods evaluation study of the North Carolina Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Center's Vulnerable & At-Risk Populations Resource Guide, an online tool to aid local health departments' (LHDs') preparedness planning efforts. We examined planning practices across multiple local, regional, and state jurisdictions utilizing user data, follow-up surveys, and secondary data. To identify potential incongruities in planning, we compared respondents' reported populations of interest with corresponding census data to determine whether or not there were differences in planning priorities. We used data collected from evaluation surveys to identify key institutional facilitators and barriers associated with planning for at-risk populations, including challenges to conducting assessments and lack of resources. Results identified both barriers within institutional culture and disconnects between planning priorities and evidence-based identification of vulnerable and at-risk populations, including variation in the planning process, partnerships, and perceptions. Our results highlight the important role of LHDs in preparedness planning and the potential implications associated with organizational and bureaucratic impediments to planning implementation. A more in-depth understanding of the relationships among public institutions and the levels of preparedness that contribute to the conditions and processes that generate vulnerability is needed.

Arsenic exposure through drinking water increases the risk of liver and cardiovascular diseases in the population of West Bengal, India

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Arsenic is a natural drinking water contaminant affecting 26 million people in West Bengal, India. Chronic arsenic exposure causes cancer, cardiovascular disease, liver disease, neuropathies and ocular diseases. The aims of the present study were to assess bioindicators of hepatocellular injury as indicated by the levels of liver enzymes, to determine the auto immune status, as indicated by the amounts of anti-nuclear antibodies (ANA) and anti-dsDNA antibodies in their serum, and to predict cardiovascular risk in the arsenic exposed population. Methods Effect of chronic arsenic exposure on liver was determined by liver function tests. Autoimmune status was measured by measuring ANA and anti-dsDNA in serum. Inflammatory cytokines associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk, IL6, IL8 and MCP-1 were determined. Results Our results indicated that serum levels of bilirubin, alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, alkaline phosphatase and ANA were increased in the arsenic exposed population. Serum levels of IL6 and IL8 also increased in the arsenic exposed group. Conclusions Chronic arsenic exposure causes liver injury, increases the serum levels of autoimmune markers and imparts increased cardiovascular risk. PMID:22883023

Herd-level bovine tuberculosis risk factors: assessing the role of low-level badger population disturbance.

PubMed

Wright, David M; Reid, Neil; Ian Montgomery, W; Allen, Adrian R; Skuce, Robin A; Kao, Rowland R

2015-08-17

Bovine TB (bTB) is endemic in Irish cattle and has eluded eradication despite considerable expenditure, amid debate over the relative roles of badgers and cattle in disease transmission. Using a comprehensive dataset from Northern Ireland (>10,000 km(2); 29,513 cattle herds), we investigated interactions between host populations in one of the first large-scale risk factor analyses for new herd breakdowns to combine data on both species. Cattle risk factors (movements, international imports, bTB history, neighbours with bTB) were more strongly associated with herd risk than area-level measures of badger social group density, habitat suitability or persecution (sett disturbance). Highest risks were in areas of high badger social group density and high rates of persecution, potentially representing both responsive persecution of badgers in high cattle risk areas and effects of persecution on cattle bTB risk through badger social group disruption. Average badger persecution was associated with reduced cattle bTB risk (compared with high persecution areas), so persecution may contribute towards sustaining bTB hotspots; findings with important implications for existing and planned disease control programmes.

Gender-Specific Association of Oxidative Stress and Inflammation with Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Arab Population

PubMed Central

Khadir, Abdelkrim; Kavalakatt, Sina; Behbehani, Kazem; Elkum, Naser

2015-01-01

Background. The impact of gender difference on the association between metabolic stress and cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. We have investigated, for the first time, the gender effect on the oxidative and inflammatory stress responses and assessed their correlation with classical cardiometabolites in Arab population. Methods. A total of 378 adult Arab participants (193 females) were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. Plasma levels of CRP, IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, ROS, TBARs, and PON1 were measured and correlated with anthropometric and cardiometabolite parameters of the study population. Results. Compared to females, males had significantly higher FBG, HbA1c, TG, and blood pressure but lower BMI, TC, and HDL (P < 0.05). After adjustment for BMI and WC, females had higher levels of ROS, TBARS, and CRP (P < 0.001) whereas males had increased levels of IL-8, IL-6, and TNF-α (P < 0.05). Moreover, after adjustment for age, BMI, and gender, the levels of TNF-α, IL-6, and ROS were associated with central obesity but not general obesity. Conclusion. Inflammation and oxidative stress contribution to CVD risk in Arab population linked to gender and this risk is better reflected by central obesity. Arab females might be at risk of CVD complications due to increased oxidative stress. PMID:25918477

Difference in health inequity between two population groups due to a social determinant of health.

PubMed

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Bouye, Karen; Penman-Aguilar, Ana

2014-12-01

The World Health Organization defines social determinants of health as "complex, integrated, and overlapping social structures and economic systems" that are responsible for most health inequities. Similar to the individual-level risk factors such as behavioral and biological risk factors that influence disease, we consider social determinants of health such as the distribution of income, wealth, influence and power as risk factors for risk of disease. We operationally define health inequity in a disease within a population due to a risk factor that is unfair and avoidable as the difference between the disease outcome with and without the risk factor in the population. We derive expressions for difference in health inequity between two populations due to a risk factor that is unfair and avoidable for a given disease. The difference in heath inequity between two population groups due to a risk factor increases with increasing difference in relative risks and the difference in prevalence of the risk factor in the two populations. The difference in health inequity could be larger than the difference in health outcomes between the two populations in some situations. Compared to health disparities which are typically measured and monitored using absolute or relative disparities of health outcomes, the methods presented in this manuscript provide a different, yet complementary, picture because they parse out the contributions of unfair and avoidable risk factors.

Difference in Health Inequity between Two Population Groups due to a Social Determinant of Health

PubMed Central

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Bouye, Karen; Penman-Aguilar, Ana

2014-01-01

The World Health Organization defines social determinants of health as “complex, integrated, and overlapping social structures and economic systems” that are responsible for most health inequities. Similar to the individual-level risk factors such as behavioral and biological risk factors that influence disease, we consider social determinants of health such as the distribution of income, wealth, influence and power as risk factors for risk of disease. We operationally define health inequity in a disease within a population due to a risk factor that is unfair and avoidable as the difference between the disease outcome with and without the risk factor in the population. We derive expressions for difference in health inequity between two populations due to a risk factor that is unfair and avoidable for a given disease. The difference in heath inequity between two population groups due to a risk factor increases with increasing difference in relative risks and the difference in prevalence of the risk factor in the two populations. The difference in health inequity could be larger than the difference in health outcomes between the two populations in some situations. Compared to health disparities which are typically measured and monitored using absolute or relative disparities of health outcomes, the methods presented in this manuscript provide a different, yet complementary, picture because they parse out the contributions of unfair and avoidable risk factors. PMID:25522048

The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in Afghanistan: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Chemaitelly, Hiam; Mahmud, Sarwat; Rahmani, Ahmad Masoud; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

2015-11-01

To characterize hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology and inform public health research, policy, and programming priorities in Afghanistan. Records of HCV incidence and prevalence were reviewed systematically and synthesized following PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were implemented using a DerSimonian-Laird random effects model with inverse variance weighting to estimate HCV prevalence among various at risk populations. A risk of bias assessment was incorporated. The search identified one HCV incidence and 76 HCV prevalence measures. HCV incidence was only assessed among people who inject drugs (PWID), and was reported at 66.7 per 100 person-years. Meta-analyses estimated HCV prevalence at 0.7% among the general population (range 0-9.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5-0.9%), 32.6% among PWID (range 9.5-70.0%, 95% CI 24.5-41.3%), and 2.3% among populations at intermediate risk (range 0.0-8.3%, 95% CI 1.3-3.7%). No data were available for other high risk populations such as hemodialysis, thalassemia, and hemophilia patients. HCV prevalence among the general population in Afghanistan is comparable to global levels. Data are needed for the level of infection among key clinical populations at high risk of infection. There is also an immediate need for expansion of harm reduction programs among PWID and prisoners. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular risk factors in a Mexican middle-class urban population. The Lindavista Study. Baseline data.

PubMed

Meaney, Alejandra; Ceballos-Reyes, Guillermo; Gutiérrez-Salmean, Gabriela; Samaniego-Méndez, Virginia; Vela-Huerta, Agustín; Alcocer, Luis; Zárate-Chavarría, Elisa; Mendoza-Castelán, Emma; Olivares-Corichi, Ivonne; García-Sánchez, Rubén; Martínez-Marroquín, Yolanda; Ramírez-Sánchez, Israel; Meaney, Eduardo

2013-01-01

The aim of this communication is to describe the cardiovascular risk factors affecting a Mexican urban middle-class population. A convenience sample of 2602 middle class urban subjects composed the cohort of the Lindavista Study, a prospective study aimed to determine if conventional cardiovascular risks factors have the same prognosis impact as in other populations. For the baseline data, several measurements were done: obesity indexes, smoking, blood pressure, fasting serum glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-c, LDL-c and triglycerides. This paper presents the basal values of this population, which represents a sample of the Mexican growing urban middle-class. The mean age in the sample was 50 years; 59% were females. Around 50% of the entire group were overweighed, while around 24% were obese. 32% smoked; 32% were hypertensive with a 20% rate of controlled pressure. 6% had diabetes, and 14% had impaired fasting glucose; 66% had total cholesterol ≥ 200 mg/dL; 62% showed HDL-c levels<40 mg/dL; 52% triglycerides>150 mg/dL, and 34% levels of LDL-c ≥ 160 mg/dL. Half of the population studied had the metabolic syndrome. These data show a population with a high-risk profile, secondary to the agglomeration of several cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2012 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Elevated lipoprotein(a) and risk of aortic valve stenosis in the general population.

PubMed

Kamstrup, Pia R; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Nordestgaard, Børge G

2014-02-11

The purpose of this study was to determine whether elevated lipoprotein(a) levels and corresponding LPA risk genotypes (rs10455872, rs3798220, kringle IV type 2 repeat polymorphism) prospectively associate with increased risk of aortic valve stenosis (AVS). The etiologic basis of AVS is unclear. Recent data implicate an LPA genetic variant (rs10455872), associated with Lp(a) levels, in calcific AVS. We combined data from 2 prospective general population studies, the Copenhagen City Heart Study (1991 to 2011; n = 10,803) and the Copenhagen General Population Study (2003 to 2011; n = 66,877), following up 77,680 Danish participants for as long as 20 years, during which time 454 were diagnosed with AVS. We conducted observational and genetic instrumental variable analyses in a Mendelian randomization study design. Elevated Lp(a) levels were associated with multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for AVS of 1.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.8 to 1.7) for 22nd to 66th percentile levels (5 to 19 mg/dl), 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 to 2.4) for 67th to 89th percentile levels (20 to 64 mg/dl), 2.0 (95% CI: 1.2 to 3.4) for 90th to 95th percentile levels (65 to 90 mg/dl), and 2.9 (95% CI: 1.8 to 4.9) for levels greater than 95th percentile (>90 mg/dl), versus levels less than the 22nd percentile (<5 mg/dl; trend, p < 0.001). Lp(a) levels were elevated among carriers of rs10455872 and rs3798220 minor alleles, and of low number of KIV-2 repeats (trend, all p < 0.001). Combining all genotypes, instrumental variable analysis yielded a genetic relative risk for AVS of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.2 to 2.1) for a 10-fold Lp(a) increase, comparable to the observational hazard ratio of 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2 to 1.7) for a 10-fold increase in Lp(a) plasma levels. Elevated Lp(a) levels and corresponding genotypes were associated with increased risk of AVS in the general population, with levels >90 mg/dl predicting a threefold increased risk. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of urbanization and population density on childhood Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence rates in Africa.

PubMed

Kabaria, Caroline W; Gilbert, Marius; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine

2017-01-26

Although malaria has been traditionally regarded as less of a problem in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas, the risk of malaria infection continues to exist in densely populated, urban areas of Africa. Despite the recognition that urbanization influences the epidemiology of malaria, there is little consensus on urbanization relevant for malaria parasite mapping. Previous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and malaria transmission have used products defining urbanization at global/continental scales developed in the early 2000s, that overestimate actual urban extents while the population estimates are over 15 years old and estimated at administrative unit level. This study sought to discriminate an urbanization definition that is most relevant for malaria parasite mapping using individual level malaria infection data obtained from nationally representative household-based surveys. Boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to determine the effect of urbanization on malaria transmission and if this effect varied with urbanization definition. In addition, the most recent high resolution population distribution data was used to determine whether population density had significant effect on malaria parasite prevalence and if so, could population density replace urban classifications in modelling malaria transmission patterns. The risk of malaria infection was shown to decline from rural areas through peri-urban settlements to urban central areas. Population density was found to be an important predictor of malaria risk. The final boosted regression trees (BRT) model with urbanization and population density gave the best model fit (Tukey test p value <0.05) compared to the models with urbanization only. Given the challenges in uniformly classifying urban areas across different countries, population density provides a reliable metric to adjust for the patterns of malaria risk in densely populated urban areas. Future malaria risk models can, therefore, be improved by including both population density and urbanization which have both been shown to have significant impact on malaria risk in this study.

An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

PubMed

Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

2016-01-01

This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. © 2015 SETAC.

Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.

2016-12-01

The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration, Refugees

Comparison of various risk indicators among patients with chronic and aggressive periodontitis in davangere population

PubMed Central

Vandana, Kharidhi Laxman; Nadkarni, Rahul Dilip; Guddada, Kaveri

2015-01-01

Background: The aim of the present study was to compare various risk indicators of chronic periodontitis (CP) and aggressive periodontitis (AP) among patients of Davangere population. Materials and Methods: Totally, 89 CP and 90 AP patients were selected from outpatient Department of Periodontics, College of Dental Sciences, Davangere. Various clinical parameters proven to be risk indicators were determined for each patient such as age, gender, occupation, oral hygiene habits, personal habits, income, level of education, place of residence, frequency of dental visits, various oral hygiene indices, gingival status, wasting diseases, malocclusion, laboratory investigations, and the results were subjected to statistical analysis. Results: This study demonstrated that AP is manifested early in life in susceptible individuals. Proven risk indicators for AP and CP in the present study population included young age, place of residence, income and education levels, frequency of dental visits. Patients with AP had better oral hygiene habits and oral hygiene index results than patients with CP. Paan chewing and smoking could be considered as risk factors, both in CP and AP cases. The similar association of plaque scores but higher bleeding tendency in AP patients supported the fact of higher susceptibility of AP patients to periodontal breakdown. Malocclusion being present in the majority of cases could also be put forth as a risk factor for AP and CP. Conclusion: This study identifies the different risk indicators for CP and AP and demonstrates the need for constructing nationwide oral health promotion programs to improve the level of oral health awareness and standards in Indian population. PMID:26392693

Prevalence and treatment of atherogenic dyslipidemia in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Europe: EURIKA, a cross-sectional observational study.

PubMed

Halcox, Julian P; Banegas, José R; Roy, Carine; Dallongeville, Jean; De Backer, Guy; Guallar, Eliseo; Perk, Joep; Hajage, David; Henriksson, Karin M; Borghi, Claudio

2017-06-17

Atherogenic dyslipidemia is associated with poor cardiovascular outcomes, yet markers of this condition are often ignored in clinical practice. Here, we address a clear evidence gap by assessing the prevalence and treatment of two markers of atherogenic dyslipidemia: elevated triglyceride levels and low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. This cross-sectional observational study assessed the prevalence of two atherogenic dyslipidemia markers, high triglyceride levels and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, in the study population from the European Study on Cardiovascular Risk Prevention and Management in Usual Daily Practice (EURIKA; N = 7641; of whom 51.6% were female and 95.6% were White/Caucasian). The EURIKA population included European patients, aged at least 50 years with at least one cardiovascular risk factor but no history of cardiovascular disease. Over 20% of patients from the EURIKA population have either triglyceride or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels characteristic of atherogenic dyslipidemia. Furthermore, the proportions of patients with one of these markers were higher in subpopulations with type 2 diabetes mellitus or those already calculated to be at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Approximately 55% of the EURIKA population who have markers of atherogenic dyslipidemia are not receiving lipid-lowering therapy. A considerable proportion of patients with at least one major cardiovascular risk factor in the primary cardiovascular disease prevention setting have markers of atherogenic dyslipidemia. The majority of these patients are not receiving optimal treatment, as specified in international guidelines, and thus their risk of developing cardiovascular disease is possibly underestimated. The present study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT00882336).

Risky behavior and its effect on survival: snowshoe hare behavior under varying moonlight conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gigliotti, Laura C.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2018-01-01

Predation and predation risk can exert strong influences on the behavior of prey species. However, risk avoidance behaviors may vary among populations of the same species. We studied a population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) near the southern edge of their range, in Pennsylvania. This population occupies different habitat types, experiences different environmental conditions, and are exposed to different predator species and densities than northern hare populations; therefore, they might exhibit differences in risk avoidance behaviors. We analyzed hare survival, movement rates, and habitat use under different levels of predation risk, as indexed by moonlight. Similar to previous work, we found snowshoe hare survival decreased with increased moon illumination during the winter, but we found differences in behavioral responses to increased predation risk. We found that snowshoe hares did not reduce movement rates during high‐risk nights, but instead found that hares selected areas with denser canopy cover, compared to low‐risk nights. We suggest that behavioral plasticity in response to predation risk allows populations of the same species to respond to localized conditions.

Education-based disparities in knowledge of novel health risks: The case of knowledge gaps in HIV risk perceptions.

PubMed

Kiviniemi, Marc T; Orom, Heather; Waters, Erika A; McKillip, Megan; Hay, Jennifer L

2018-05-01

Risk perception is a key determinant of preventive health behaviour, but when asked, some individuals indicate they do not know their health risk. Low education is associated with both lack of knowledge about health risk and with the persistence and exacerbation of gaps in knowledge about health issues. This study uses the context of an emerging infectious disease threat to explore the hypothesis that the education-don't know risk relation results from differences in knowledge about the health issue of interest. Specifically, we examine whether patterns of change over time follow theoretical predictions that disparities in risk knowledge would increase over time in less educated sectors of the population (knowledge gap hypothesis). Secondary analysis of population-representative behavioural surveillance survey. We analysed data from the 1993 to 2000 Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys, which measured education and perceived HIV/AIDS risk in a population sample collected separately in each survey year; don't know responses were coded. In each year, individuals with higher education were less likely to respond don't know. The absolute prevalence of don't know responding dropped over time; nonetheless, there was an increase over time in the magnitude of the pattern of lower education being associated with greater don't know responding. We found support for the knowledge gap hypothesis. Over time, populations with greater education gained more knowledge about their HIV risk than populations with lower education. Results highlight the need to carefully consider health communication strategies to reach and address those individuals with low education and health knowledge. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? A meaningful potion of the population answers 'don't know' when asked to report their risk for health problems, indicating a lack of risk perception in the domain. Previous studies have shown that level of education is associated with don't know responding - those with lower educational attainment are more likely to respond don't know. The education-don't know responding relation suggests that lack of health information and health domain knowledge might be a factor in lacking risk perception, but this mechanism has not been previously tested. What does this study add? Patterns of changes in don't know responding over time as population-level knowledge of a health risk increase are consistent with the health information/health knowledge hypothesis outlined above. As population knowledge of HIV/AIDS risk in the United States increased over time (indicated by declining overall rates of don't know responses), the relation of education level to don't know responding actually became stronger. The pattern of change over time is the classic 'knowledge gap hypothesis' pattern, which has not been previously demonstrated for knowledge of personal health risk. The knowledge gap response pattern supports the health information/health knowledge hypothesis. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Area-level risk factors for adverse birth outcomes: trends in urban and rural settings.

PubMed

Kent, Shia T; McClure, Leslie A; Zaitchik, Ben F; Gohlke, Julia M

2013-06-10

Significant and persistent racial and income disparities in birth outcomes exist in the US. The analyses in this manuscript examine whether adverse birth outcome time trends and associations between area-level variables and adverse birth outcomes differ by urban-rural status. Alabama births records were merged with ZIP code-level census measures of race, poverty, and rurality. B-splines were used to determine long-term preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) trends by rurality. Logistic regression models were used to examine differences in the relationships between ZIP code-level percent poverty or percent African-American with either PTB or LBW. Interactions with rurality were examined. Population dense areas had higher adverse birth outcome rates compared to other regions. For LBW, the disparity between population dense and other regions increased during the 1991-2005 time period, and the magnitude of the disparity was maintained through 2010. Overall PTB and LBW rates have decreased since 2006, except within isolated rural regions. The addition of individual-level socioeconomic or race risk factors greatly attenuated these geographical disparities, but isolated rural regions maintained increased odds of adverse birth outcomes. ZIP code-level percent poverty and percent African American both had significant relationships with adverse birth outcomes. Poverty associations remained significant in the most population-dense regions when models were adjusted for individual-level risk factors. Population dense urban areas have heightened rates of adverse birth outcomes. High-poverty African American areas have higher odds of adverse birth outcomes in urban versus rural regions. These results suggest there are urban-specific social or environmental factors increasing risk for adverse birth outcomes in underserved communities. On the other hand, trends in PTBs and LBWs suggest interventions that have decreased adverse birth outcomes elsewhere may not be reaching isolated rural areas.

Individual and population level impacts of illicit drug use, sexual risk behaviours on sexually transmitted infections among young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people: results from the GOANNA survey.

PubMed

Wand, Handan; Ward, James; Bryant, Joanne; Delaney-Thiele, Dea; Worth, Heather; Pitts, Marian; Kaldor, John M

2016-07-19

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) have been increasing among Australian Indigenous young people for over two decades. Little is known about the association between alcohol and other drug use and sexual risk behaviours and diagnosis of STIs among this population. A cross-sectional, community based self-administered survey was conducted among young Aboriginal people aged 16-29 years of age. Questionnaires included socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge, sexual risk behaviours alcohol and other drug use and health service access including self-reported history of diagnosis with a STI. Logistic regression models and population attributable risks were used to assess individual and population level impacts of illicit drug use on high risk sexual behaviours and ever reported diagnosis of an STI. Of the 2877 participants, 2320 (81 %) identified as sexually active and were included in this study. More than 50 % of the study population reported that they had used at least one illicit drug in past year. Cannabis, ecstasy and methamphetamines were the three most commonly used illicit drugs in the past year. The prevalence of self-reported STI diagnosis was 25 %. Compared with people who did not report using illicit drugs, risky alcohol use and sexual behaviours including inconsistent condom use, multiple sexual partners in the past year and sex with casual partners were all significantly higher among illicit drug users. In adjusted analysis, participants who reported using illicit drugs were significantly more likely to engage in sexual risk behaviours and to ever have been diagnosed with an STI. Adjusted Odds Ratios ranged from 1.86 to 3.00 (males) and from 1.43 to 2.46 (females). At the population level, more than 70 % of the STI diagnoses were attributed to illicit drug-use and sexual risk behaviours for males and females. Illicit drug use in this population is relatively high compared to other similar aged populations in Australia. Illicit drug use was associated with risky sexual behaviours and STI diagnoses among this study population. Developing and implementing effective STI prevention strategies should include not only safe sex messages but also include drug and alcohol harm reduction messages.

LINE-1 hypomethylation is associated with the risk of coronary heart disease in Chinese population.

PubMed

Wei, Li; Liu, Shuchuan; Su, Zhendong; Cheng, Rongchao; Bai, Xiuping; Li, Xueqi

2014-05-01

Global methylation level in blood leukocyte DNA has been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), with inconsistent results in various populations. Similar data are lacking in Chinese population where different genetic, lifestyle and environmental factors may affect DNA methylation and its risk relationship with CHD. To examine whether global methylation is associated with the risk of CHD in Chinese population. A total of 334 cases with CHD and 788 healthy controls were included. Global methylation in blood leukocyte DNA was estimated by analyzing LINE-1 repeats using bisulfite pyrosequencing. In an initial analysis restricted to control subjects, LINE-1 level reduced significantly with aging, elevated total cholesterol, and diagnosis of diabetes. In the case-control analysis, reduced LINE-1 methylation was associated with increased risk of CHD; analysis by quartile revealed odds ratios (95%CI) of 0.9 (0.6-1.4), 1.9 (1.3-2.9) and 2.3 (1.6-3.5) for the third, second and first (lowest) quartile (Ptrend < 0.001), respectively, compared to the fourth (highest) quartile. Lower (

Screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) for offenders: protocol for a pragmatic randomized trial

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Although screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) is an evidence-based technique that, in some health-care settings, has been shown to cost-effectively reduce alcohol and drug use, research on the efficacy of SBIRT among criminal offender populations is limited. Such populations have a high prevalence of drug and alcohol use but limited access to intervention, and many are at risk for post-release relapse and recidivism. Thus, there exists a need for treatment options for drug-involved offenders of varying risk levels to reduce risky behaviors or enter treatment. Methods/design This protocol describes an assessment of SBIRT feasibility and effectiveness in a criminal justice environment. Eight-hundred persons will be recruited from a large metropolitan jail, with the experimental group receiving an intervention depending on risk level and the control group receiving minimal intervention. The intervention will assess the risk level for drug and alcohol misuse by inmates, providing those at low or medium risk a brief intervention in the jail and referring those at high risk to community treatment following release. In addition, a brief treatment (eight-session) option will be available. Using data from a 12-month follow-up interview, the primary study outcomes are a reduction in drug and alcohol use, while secondary outcomes include participation in treatment, rearrest, quality of life, reduction in HIV risk behaviors, and costs of SBIRT. Expected value Individual reductions in alcohol and drug use can have significant effects on public health and safety when observed over a large population at risk for substance-use problems. With wider dissemination statewide or nationwide, a relatively low-cost intervention such as SBIRT could offer demonstrated benefits in this population. Trial registration Clinical Trials Government Identifier, NCT01683643. PMID:24499609

Plasma folate levels and associated factors in women planning to become pregnant in a population with high prevalence of neural tube defects.

PubMed

Ma, Rui; Wang, Linlin; Jin, Lei; Li, Zhiwen; Ren, Aiguo

2017-07-17

Optimal blood folate levels of women before pregnancy are critical to the prevention of neural tube defects (NTDs). However, few studies have focused on blood folate levels of women planning to become pregnant. The aims of this study were to assess plasma folate levels in women who planned to become pregnant in a population with high prevalence of NTDs, to identify factors associated with plasma folate levels, and to evaluate the risk of NTDs at the population level. A total of 2065 women were enrolled at the time of premarital health check-up in two rural counties in northern China from November 2009 to December 2012. Fasting venous blood samples were collected and plasma folate concentrations were measured by microbiological method. The overall median of plasma folate was 10.5 nmol/L. 50% of the women had a plasma folate level below 10.5 nmol/L, a cutoff for megaloblastic anemia, and 88% below 18 nmol/L, a proposed optimal plasma folate level for the prevention of NTDs. Folic acid supplementation was the only factor to be associated with plasma folate concentrations, but only 1.9% of the women reported having taken folic acid supplements. A population risk of 29.3 NTD cases per 10,000 births was predicted. Women who planned to become pregnant had very low plasma folate in the population. Folic acid supplementation was the only factor to be associated with a high plasma folate concentration. High NTD risk would remain if women would get pregnant without having taken folic acid supplements. Birth Defects Research 109:1039-1047, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Who is where at risk for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease? A spatial epidemiological analysis of health insurance claims for COPD in Northeastern Germany

PubMed Central

Maier, Werner; Schweikart, Jürgen; Keste, Andrea; Moskwyn, Marita

2018-01-01

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a high prevalence rate in Germany and a further increase is expected within the next years. Although risk factors on an individual level are widely understood, only little is known about the spatial heterogeneity and population-based risk factors of COPD. Background knowledge about broader, population-based processes could help to plan the future provision of healthcare and prevention strategies more aligned to the expected demand. The aim of this study is to analyze how the prevalence of COPD varies across northeastern Germany on the smallest spatial-scale possible and to identify the location-specific population-based risk factors using health insurance claims of the AOK Nordost. Methods To visualize the spatial distribution of COPD prevalence at the level of municipalities and urban districts, we used the conditional autoregressive Besag–York–Mollié (BYM) model. Geographically weighted regression modelling (GWR) was applied to analyze the location-specific ecological risk factors for COPD. Results The sex- and age-adjusted prevalence of COPD was 6.5% in 2012 and varied widely across northeastern Germany. Population-based risk factors consist of the proportions of insurants aged 65 and older, insurants with migration background, household size and area deprivation. The results of the GWR model revealed that the population at risk for COPD varies considerably across northeastern Germany. Conclusion Area deprivation has a direct and an indirect influence on the prevalence of COPD. Persons ageing in socially disadvantaged areas have a higher chance of developing COPD, even when they are not necessarily directly affected by deprivation on an individual level. This underlines the importance of considering the impact of area deprivation on health for planning of healthcare. Additionally, our results reveal that in some parts of the study area, insurants with migration background and persons living in multi-persons households are at elevated risk of COPD. PMID:29414997

Who is where at risk for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease? A spatial epidemiological analysis of health insurance claims for COPD in Northeastern Germany.

PubMed

Kauhl, Boris; Maier, Werner; Schweikart, Jürgen; Keste, Andrea; Moskwyn, Marita

2018-01-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a high prevalence rate in Germany and a further increase is expected within the next years. Although risk factors on an individual level are widely understood, only little is known about the spatial heterogeneity and population-based risk factors of COPD. Background knowledge about broader, population-based processes could help to plan the future provision of healthcare and prevention strategies more aligned to the expected demand. The aim of this study is to analyze how the prevalence of COPD varies across northeastern Germany on the smallest spatial-scale possible and to identify the location-specific population-based risk factors using health insurance claims of the AOK Nordost. To visualize the spatial distribution of COPD prevalence at the level of municipalities and urban districts, we used the conditional autoregressive Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model. Geographically weighted regression modelling (GWR) was applied to analyze the location-specific ecological risk factors for COPD. The sex- and age-adjusted prevalence of COPD was 6.5% in 2012 and varied widely across northeastern Germany. Population-based risk factors consist of the proportions of insurants aged 65 and older, insurants with migration background, household size and area deprivation. The results of the GWR model revealed that the population at risk for COPD varies considerably across northeastern Germany. Area deprivation has a direct and an indirect influence on the prevalence of COPD. Persons ageing in socially disadvantaged areas have a higher chance of developing COPD, even when they are not necessarily directly affected by deprivation on an individual level. This underlines the importance of considering the impact of area deprivation on health for planning of healthcare. Additionally, our results reveal that in some parts of the study area, insurants with migration background and persons living in multi-persons households are at elevated risk of COPD.

The prevalence of insulin resistance and other cardiovascular disease risk factors in healthy elderly southwestern Nigerians.

PubMed

Ezenwaka, C E; Akanji, A O; Akanji, B O; Unwin, N C; Adejuwon, C A

1997-02-10

We assessed the prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors including insulin resistance in 500 (205 males, 295 females) healthy elderly (age > 55 years) indigenous, low socioeconomic group Yorubas residents in either an urban slum (n = 240) or a rural town (n = 260) in southwestern Nigeria. Anthropometric indices, blood pressure and fasting plasma levels of glucose, lipids, insulin and insulin resistance were measured. The results indicated that: (i) gross obesity (4.4%), diabetes (1.6%), hyperlipidaemia (0.2%) and cigarette smoking (4.8%) were relatively uncommon in the population, although the prevalence of hypertension (30%) was higher than previously reported from this population; (ii). the subjects had a relatively high prevalence of multiple CHD risk factors (about 20% had > 4 risk factors), an observation considered paradoxical in view of the reportedly low CHD prevalence in this population; (iii) these CHD risk factors (increased body mass and blood pressure (BP), hyperinsulinaemia and insulin resistance) were more prevalent in the women and in urban residents; (iv) hyperinsulinaemia (20%) and insulin resistance (35%) were common in the population, and were associated, on regression analyses, to such other CHD risk factors as BP and body mass, particularly in women, suggesting, as in Caucasians, that insulin resistance could be an important index of CHD risk; and (v) the excess of multiple CHD risk factors in the women, is due at least in part, to their increased tendency to obesity (8%) and reduced physical activity (83%). This study concludes that: (i) despite the high prevalence of multiple risk factors in this population, CHD prevalence is low, indicating the supremacy of such major risk factors as diabetes and hyperlipidaemia (relatively uncommon here) in the development of CHD; and (ii) potentially the greatest CHD risk is in the elderly women especially if relatively overweight, physically inactive and resident in an urban centre. While further confirmatory studies are necessary in younger subjects and across societal socioeconomic strata, our results nonetheless suggest that attempts to maintain the CHD prevalence at low levels in this population should include efforts directed at reducing excess body weight particularly in women, and advice on maintenance of a traditional diet to keep lipid levels and diabetes prevalence low.

Plasma Free Amino Acid Profiles Predict Four-Year Risk of Developing Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome, Dyslipidemia, and Hypertension in Japanese Population

PubMed Central

Yamakado, Minoru; Nagao, Kenji; Imaizumi, Akira; Tani, Mizuki; Toda, Akiko; Tanaka, Takayuki; Jinzu, Hiroko; Miyano, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Daimon, Takashi; Horimoto, Katsuhisa; Ishizaka, Yuko

2015-01-01

Plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile is highlighted in its association with visceral obesity and hyperinsulinemia, and future diabetes. Indeed PFAA profiling potentially can evaluate individuals’ future risks of developing lifestyle-related diseases, in addition to diabetes. However, few studies have been performed especially in Asian populations, about the optimal combination of PFAAs for evaluating health risks. We quantified PFAA levels in 3,701 Japanese subjects, and determined visceral fat area (VFA) and two-hour post-challenge insulin (Ins120 min) values in 865 and 1,160 subjects, respectively. Then, models between PFAA levels and the VFA or Ins120 min values were constructed by multiple linear regression analysis with variable selection. Finally, a cohort study of 2,984 subjects to examine capabilities of the obtained models for predicting four-year risk of developing new-onset lifestyle-related diseases was conducted. The correlation coefficients of the obtained PFAA models against VFA or Ins120 min were higher than single PFAA level. Our models work well for future risk prediction. Even after adjusting for commonly accepted multiple risk factors, these models can predict future development of diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and dyslipidemia. PFAA profiles confer independent and differing contributions to increasing the lifestyle-related disease risks in addition to the currently known factors in a general Japanese population. PMID:26156880

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease through population-wide motivational strategies: insights from using smartphones in stroke prevention

PubMed Central

Feigin, Valery L; Norrving, Bo; Mensah, George A

2017-01-01

The fast increasing stroke burden across all countries of the world suggests that currently used primary stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention strategies are not sufficiently effective. In this article, we overview the gaps in, and pros and cons of, population-wide and high-risk prevention strategies. We suggest that motivating and empowering people to reduce their risk of having a stroke/CVD by using increasingly used smartphone technologies would bridge the gap in the population-wide and high-risk prevention strategies and reduce stroke/CVD burden worldwide. We emphasise that for primary stroke prevention to be effective, the focus should be shifted from high-risk prevention to prevention at any level of CVD risk, with the focus on behavioural risk factors. Such a motivational population-wide strategy could open a new page in primary prevention of not only stroke/CVD but also other non-communicable disorders worldwide. PMID:28589034

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease through population-wide motivational strategies: insights from using smartphones in stroke prevention.

PubMed

Feigin, Valery L; Norrving, Bo; Mensah, George A

2016-01-01

The fast increasing stroke burden across all countries of the world suggests that currently used primary stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention strategies are not sufficiently effective. In this article, we overview the gaps in, and pros and cons of, population-wide and high-risk prevention strategies. We suggest that motivating and empowering people to reduce their risk of having a stroke/CVD by using increasingly used smartphone technologies would bridge the gap in the population-wide and high-risk prevention strategies and reduce stroke/CVD burden worldwide. We emphasise that for primary stroke prevention to be effective, the focus should be shifted from high-risk prevention to prevention at any level of CVD risk, with the focus on behavioural risk factors. Such a motivational population-wide strategy could open a new page in primary prevention of not only stroke/CVD but also other non-communicable disorders worldwide.

Air pollution exposure: Who is at high risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peled, Ronit

2011-04-01

This article reviews the sub-population groups who are at high risk and first to be harmed by air pollution coming from anthropogenic combustions. Epidemiological studies from the last few decades contributed to the understanding of the different levels of susceptibility to air pollution. Older people and young infants, people who suffer from allergies, pulmonary and heart diseases, pregnant women and newborn babies, and deprived populations that suffer from low socio-economic status have all been described as populations at risk. A better understanding of the role of air pollution on large as well as specific populations' health, will promote a better protection policy.

Assessment of total cardiovascular risk using WHO/ISH risk prediction charts in three low and middle income countries in Asia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent research has used cardiovascular risk scores intended to estimate “total cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk” in individuals to assess the distribution of risk within populations. The research suggested that the adoption of the total risk approach, in comparison to treatment decisions being based on the level of a single risk factor, could lead to reductions in expenditure on preventive cardiovascular drug treatment in low- and middle-income countries. So that the patient benefit associated with savings is highlighted. Methods This study used data from national STEPS surveys (STEPwise Approach to Surveillance) conducted between 2005 and 2010 in Cambodia, Malaysia and Mongolia of men and women aged 40–64 years. The study compared the differences and implications of various approaches to risk estimation at a population level using the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk score charts. To aid interpretation and adjustment of scores and inform treatment in individuals, the charts are accompanied by practice notes about risk factors not included in the risk score calculations. Total risk was calculated amongst the populations using the charts alone and also adjusted according to these notes. Prevalence of traditional single risk factors was also calculated. Results The prevalence of WHO/ISH “high CVD risk” (≥20% chance of developing a cardiovascular event over 10 years) of 6%, 2.3% and 1.3% in Mongolia, Malaysia and Cambodia, respectively, is in line with recent research when charts alone are used. However, these proportions rise to 33.3%, 20.8% and 10.4%, respectively when individuals with blood pressure > = 160/100 mm/Hg and/or hypertension medication are attributed to “high risk”. Of those at “moderate risk” (10- < 20% chance of developing a cardio vascular event over 10 years), 100%, 94.3% and 30.1%, respectively are affected by at least one risk-increasing factor. Of all individuals, 44.6%, 29.0% and 15.0% are affected by hypertension as a single risk factor (systolic ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic ≥ 90 mmHg or medication). Conclusions Used on a population level, cardiovascular risk scores may offer useful insights that can assist health service delivery planning. An approach based on overall risk without adjustment of specific risk factors however, may underestimate treatment needs. At the individual level, the total risk approach offers important clinical benefits. However, countries need to develop appropriate clinical guidelines and operational guidance for detection and management of CVD risk using total CVD-risk approach at different levels of health system. Operational research is needed to assess implementation issues. PMID:23734670

Genetic drivers of von Willebrand Factor levels in an ischemic stroke population and association with risk for recurrent stroke

PubMed Central

Williams, Stephen R; Hsu, Fang-Chi; Keene, Keith L; Chen, Wei-Min; Dzhivhuho, Godfrey; Rowles, Joe L; Southerland, Andrew M; Furie, Karen L; Rich, Stephen S; Worrall, Bradford B; Sale, Michèle M

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose von Willebrand Factor (vWF) plays an important role in thrombus formation during cerebrovascular damage. We sought to investigate the potential role of circulating vWF in recurrent cerebrovascular events and identify genetic contributors to variation in vWF level in an ischemic stroke population. Methods We analyzed the effect of circulating vWF on risk of recurrent stroke using survival models in the Vitamin Intervention for Stroke Prevention (VISP) trial as well as the utility of vWF in reclassification over traditional factors. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) with imputation, based upon 1000 Genomes Project data, for circulating vWF levels and then interrogated loci previously associated with vWF levels. We performed expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analysis for vWF across different tissues. Results Elevated vWF levels were associated with increased risk for recurrent stroke in VISP. Adding vWF to traditional clinical parameters also improved recurrent stroke risk prediction. We identified SNPs significantly associated with circulating vWF at the ABO locus (p < 5×10-8) and replicated findings from previous genetic associations of vWF levels in humans. eQTL analyses demonstrate that most associated ABO SNPs were also associated with vWF gene expression. Conclusions Elevated vWF levels are associated with recurrent stroke in VISP. In the VISP population, genetic determinants of vWF levels that impact vWF gene expression were identified. These data add to our knowledge of the pathophysiologic and genetic basis for recurrent stroke risk, and may have implications for clinical care decision-making. PMID:28495826

Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

2017-02-01

The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

Quantifying neighbourhood socioeconomic effects in clustering of behaviour-related risk factors: a multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Halonen, Jaana I; Kivimäki, Mika; Pentti, Jaana; Kawachi, Ichiro; Virtanen, Marianna; Martikainen, Pekka; Subramanian, S V; Vahtera, Jussi

2012-01-01

The extent to which neighbourhood characteristics explain accumulation of health behaviours is poorly understood. We examined whether neighbourhood disadvantage was associated with co-occurrence of behaviour-related risk factors, and how much of the neighbourhood differences in the co-occurrence can be explained by individual and neighbourhood level covariates. The study population consisted of 60 694 Finnish Public Sector Study participants in 2004 and 2008. Neighbourhood disadvantage was determined using small-area level information on household income, education attainment, and unemployment rate, and linked with individual data using Global Positioning System-coordinates. Associations between neighbourhood disadvantage and co-occurrence of three behaviour-related risk factors (smoking, heavy alcohol use, and physical inactivity), and the extent to which individual and neighbourhood level covariates explain neighbourhood differences in co-occurrence of risk factors were determined with multilevel cumulative logistic regression. After adjusting for age, sex, marital status, and population density we found a dose-response relationship between neighbourhood disadvantage and co-occurrence of risk factors within each level of individual socioeconomic status. The cumulative odds ratios for the sum of health risks comparing the most to the least disadvantaged neighbourhoods ranged between 1.13 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.24) and 1.75 (95% CI, 1.54-1.98). Individual socioeconomic characteristics explained 35%, and neighbourhood disadvantage and population density 17% of the neighbourhood differences in the co-occurrence of risk factors. Co-occurrence of poor health behaviours associated with neighbourhood disadvantage over and above individual's own socioeconomic status. Neighbourhood differences cannot be captured using individual socioeconomic factors alone, but neighbourhood level characteristics should also be considered.

Sport Participation and the Risk of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in Adolescents: A Population-based Prospective Cohort Study (The Young-HUNT Study).

PubMed

Johnsen, Marianne Bakke; Guddal, Maren Hjelle; Småstuen, Milada Cvancarova; Moksnes, Håvard; Engebretsen, Lars; Storheim, Kjersti; Zwart, John-Anker

2016-11-01

An anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury is a severe injury that may require ACL reconstruction (ACLR) to enable the return to sport. Risk factors for ACLR have not firmly been established in the general adolescent population. To investigate the incidence and risk factors for ACLR in a population-based cohort of adolescents. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. We prospectively followed 7644 adolescents from the adolescent part of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study, included from 2006 to 2008. The main risk factors of interest were the level of sport participation (level I, II, or III) and sport competitions. The endpoint was primary ACLR recorded in the Norwegian National Knee Ligament Registry between January 2006 and December 2013. A total of 3808 boys and 3836 girls were included in the analyses. We identified 69 (0.9%) ACLRs with a median of 7.3 years of follow-up, providing an overall ACLR incidence of 38.9 (95% CI, 30.7-49.3) per 100,000 person-years. The hazard ratio (HR) for ACLR associated with level I sport participation was 3.93 (95% CI, 0.92-16.80) for boys and 3.31 (95% CI, 1.30-8.43) for girls. There was a stronger association related to participating in sport competitions. Girls had over 5 times a higher risk (HR, 5.42; 95% CI, 2.51-11.70) and boys over 4 times the risk (HR, 4.22; 95% CI, 1.58-11.30) of ACLR compared with those who did not compete. Participating in level I sports and sport competitions significantly increased the risk of undergoing primary ACLR. Preventive strategies should be implemented to reduce the incidence and future burden of ACLR. © 2016 The Author(s).

Identifying individual- and population-level characteristics that influence rates of risky alcohol consumption in regional communities.

PubMed

Breen, Courtney; Shakeshaft, Anthony; Sanson-Fisher, Rob; D'Este, Catherine; Mattick, Richard P; Gilmour, Stuart

2014-02-01

To examine the extent to which individual- and community- level characteristics account for differences in risky alcohol consumption. A cross-sectional postal survey of 2,977 randomly selected individuals from 20 regional communities in NSW, Australia. Individuals drinking at harmful levels on the AUDIT and for risk of harm in the short term and long-term were identified. Multi-level modelling of the correlates of risky alcohol consumption at the individual and community level was conducted. There were differences between communities in alcohol consumption patterns. Being male, unmarried and reporting worse health were significant individual-level correlates for drinking at levels for risk of harm in the long term. The number of GPs (+) and police (-) were significant community characteristics. Being younger (≤25), unmarried, Australian born and with a larger income was associated with drinking at levels for risk of harm in the short term and harmful drinking on the AUDIT. The number of hotels and clubs was positively associated with drinking at levels for risk of harm in the short term. Rates of risky drinking vary significantly between communities and both individual and community characteristics are significantly associated with risky alcohol consumption. A combination of individual- and population-level interventions, tailored to the risk profile of individual communities, is most likely to be optimally effective. © 2014 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Implications of Supermarket Access, Neighborhood Walkability, and Poverty Rates for Diabetes Risk in an Employee Population

PubMed Central

Herrick, Cynthia J.; Yount, Byron W.; Eyler, Amy A.

2016-01-01

Objective Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of this study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. Design This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employee zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual and zip code level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Setting Data was collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system 2009–2012. Subjects The dataset contains 25,227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual’s first entry into the database, 15,522 individuals had complete data for analysis. Results The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2.3%. There was significant variability in individual and zip code level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percent poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Conclusions Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighborhood environment, and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health. PMID:26638995

Implications of supermarket access, neighbourhood walkability and poverty rates for diabetes risk in an employee population.

PubMed

Herrick, Cynthia J; Yount, Byron W; Eyler, Amy A

2016-08-01

Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of the present study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employees' zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual- and zip-code-level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Data were collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system, 2009-2012. The data set contains 25 227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual's first entry into the database, 15 522 individuals had complete data for analysis. The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2·3 %. There was significant variability in individual- and zip-code-level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percentage of poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighbourhood environment and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health.

Family history, place and season of birth as risk factors for schizophrenia in Denmark: a replication and reanalysis.

PubMed

Pedersen, C B; Mortensen, P B

2001-07-01

Although a family history of schizophrenia is the strongest individual risk factor for schizophrenia, environmental factors related to urbanicity may contribute to a substantial proportion of the population occurrence of the disease. This study replicates previous findings in four mutually exclusive Danish study populations, including out-patient information, ICD-10 diagnoses of schizophrenia, and a broader adjustment for mental illness in family members. We established a population-based cohort of 2.66 million Danish people using data from the Civil Registration System linked with the Psychiatric Case Register. Overall, 10 264 persons developed schizophrenia during the 50.7 million person-years of follow-up. The risk of schizophrenia was increased by urbanicity of place of birth and by family history of schizophrenia or other mental disorders. Urban-rural differences of schizophrenia risk were replicated and could not be associated with the potential sources of bias we assessed. Environmental factors underlying the effect of place of birth are major determinants of schizophrenia occurrence at the population level, although the effect of family history is the strongest at the individual level.

Alcohol Consumption, Diabetes Risk, and Cardiovascular Disease Within Diabetes.

PubMed

Polsky, Sarit; Akturk, Halis K

2017-11-04

The purpose of the study is to examine and summarize studies reporting on the epidemiology, the risk of developing diabetes, and the cardiovascular effects on individuals with diabetes of different levels of alcohol consumption. Men consume more alcohol than women in populations with and without diabetes. Light-to-moderate alcohol consumption decreases the incidence of diabetes in the majority of the studies, whereas heavy drinkers and binge drinkers are at increased risk for diabetes. Among people with diabetes, light-to-moderate alcohol consumption reduces risks of cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality. Alcohol consumption is less common among populations with diabetes compared to the general population. Moderate alcohol consumption reduces the risk of diabetes and, as in the general population, improves cardiovascular health in patients with diabetes. Type of alcoholic beverage, gender, and body mass index are factors that affect these outcomes.

Sun exposure profile in the French population. Results of the EDIFICE Melanoma survey.

PubMed

Sassolas, B; Grange, F; Touboul, C; Lebbe, C; Saiag, P; Mortier, L; Lhomel, C; Robert, C

2015-02-01

The incidence of melanoma is increasing worldwide, causing significant economic burden at community and individual levels. Ultraviolet radiation, from natural sunlight or artificial sources, is the main environmental, modifiable risk factor for melanoma. The present analysis assesses the profile of sun exposure in the French population as well as the level of awareness about ultraviolet risk and protection. The survey was conducted via telephone interviews in September and October 2011. In total, 1502 respondents were questioned about their own sun exposure with the question "do you ever, even occasionally, spend time in the sun, during leisure-time, vacation or your professional occupation?" They were also asked about sun protection measures used: protective clothing, a hat or sunscreen. More than three respondents out of four (78%) declared exposing themselves to the sun, with an average of 113 days per year. Of these, 38% did not use appropriate sun protection measures. We identified the following characteristics of individuals declaring high sun exposure: chiefly men under the age of 40, higher socio-professional levels, and adults with no children. Individuals who make a poor use of protective measures are mostly men and of low educational levels. Individuals declaring low sun exposure were chiefly: women, individuals over the age of 60, and those with no professional activity. The high sun protection population comprises mostly: women, higher socio-professional levels, with no specific age-group profile. Analysis of the EDIFICE Melanoma survey provides information about the attitudes of the French population towards sun exposure. The most frequent contexts of sun exposure and the associated socio-demographic characteristics of the population with at-risk attitudes regarding sun exposure are identified. This deeper insight into the profile of at-risk populations will allow interventions to be more accurately targeted, thus potentially improving public health benefits. © 2015 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

Inbreeding and inbreeding avoidance in wild giant pandas.

PubMed

Hu, Yibo; Nie, Yonggang; Wei, Wei; Ma, Tianxiao; Van Horn, Russell; Zheng, Xiaoguang; Swaisgood, Ronald R; Zhou, Zhixin; Zhou, Wenliang; Yan, Li; Zhang, Zejun; Wei, Fuwen

2017-10-01

Inbreeding can have negative consequences on population and individual fitness, which could be counteracted by inbreeding avoidance mechanisms. However, the inbreeding risk and inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in endangered species are less studied. The giant panda, a solitary and threatened species, lives in many small populations and suffers from habitat fragmentation, which may aggravate the risk of inbreeding. Here, we performed long-term observations of reproductive behaviour, sampling of mother-cub pairs and large-scale genetic analyses on wild giant pandas. Moderate levels of inbreeding were found in 21.1% of mating pairs, 9.1% of parent pairs and 7.7% of panda cubs, but no high-level inbreeding occurred. More significant levels of inbreeding may be avoided passively by female-biased natal dispersal rather than by breeding dispersal or active relatedness-based mate choice mechanisms. The level of inbreeding in giant pandas is greater than expected for a solitary mammal and thus warrants concern for potential inbreeding depression, particularly in small populations isolated by continuing habitat fragmentation, which will reduce female dispersal and increase the risk of inbreeding. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Suicide by occupation: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Spittal, Matthew J; Pirkis, Jane; LaMontagne, Anthony D

2013-12-01

Previous research has shown that those employed in certain occupations, such as doctors and farmers, have an elevated risk of suicide, yet little research has sought to synthesise these findings across working-age populations. To summarise published research in this area through systematic review and meta-analysis. Random effects meta-analyses were used to calculate a pooled risk of suicide across occupational skill-level groups. Thirty-four studies were included in the meta-analysis. Elementary professions (e.g. labourers and cleaners) were at elevated risk compared with the working-age population (rate ratio (RR) = 1.84, 95% CI 1.46-2.33), followed by machine operators and deck crew (RR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.22-2.60) and agricultural workers (RR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.19-2.28). Results suggested a stepwise gradient in risk, with the lowest skilled occupations being at greater risk of suicide than the highest skill-level group. This is the first comprehensive meta-analytical review of suicide and occupation. There is a need for future studies to investigate explanations for the observed skill-level differences, particularly in people employed in lower skill-level groups.

Efficiency or equity? Simulating the impact of high-risk and population intervention strategies for the prevention of disease.

PubMed

Platt, Jonathan M; Keyes, Katherine M; Galea, Sandro

2017-12-01

Maximizing both efficiency and equity are core considerations for population health. These considerations can result in tension in population health science as we seek to improve overall population health while achieving equitable health distributions within populations. Limited work has explored empirically the consequences of different population health intervention strategies on the burden of disease and on within- and between-group differences in disease. To address this gap, we compared the impact of four simulated interventions using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In particular, we focus on assessing how population and high-risk primary prevention and population and high-risk secondary interventions efforts to reduce smoking behavior influence systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hypertension, and how such strategies influence inequalities in SBP by income. The greatest reductions in SBP mean and standard deviation resulted from the population secondary prevention. High-risk primary and secondary prevention and population secondary prevention programs all yielded substantial reductions in hypertension prevalence. The effect of population primary prevention did little to decrease population SBP mean and standard deviation, as well as hypertension prevalence. Both high-risk strategies had a larger impact in the low-income population, leading to the greatest narrowing the income-related gap in disease. The population prevention strategies had a larger impact in the high-income population. Population health approaches must consider the potential impact on both the whole population and also on those with different levels of risk for disease within a population, including those in under-represented or under-served groups.

Prevalence and distribution of metabolic syndrome in a southern Chinese population. Relation to exercise, smoking, and educational level.

PubMed

Li, Yong-Qiang; Zhao, Li-Qin; Liu, Xin-Yu; Wang, Hong-Lei; Wang, Xiao-Hong; Li, Bin; Deng, Kang-Ping; Zhang, Ying; Liu, Qin; Holthofer, Harry; Zou, He-Qun

2013-09-01

To investigate the prevalence and distribution of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the impact of exercise, smoking, and educational level on the risk of MetS in a southern Chinese population. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Zhuhai City, China from June to August 2012. Data on exercise, smoking, and educational level, anthropometric parameters, blood pressure, lipid, and glucose levels were collected. The prevalence of MetS (as defined by the International Diabetes Federation) was determined. Data necessary to evaluate MetS, the socio-economic characteristics, and lifestyle were obtained for 4645 subjects aged 18-75 years old. A total of 19.8% of the participants had MetS. The adjusted odds of having MetS were lower among males (adjusted odds: 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57-1.01) compared with females. Those participants who currently smoked had a higher risk of developing MetS compared with non-smokers (adjusted odds: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.13-2.50). Those who had no physical exercise had a higher risk of developing MetS compared with those who physically exercised more than 60 minutes/day (adjusted odds: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.12-2.23;). Compared with those with no education, every category of attained educational level had a lower risk of developing MetS (p<0.001). The findings in this study revealed that current smokers had a greater risk of developing MetS compared with non-smokers. Increased physical activity and higher levels of education attained served as protective factors for the population.

Maternal hormone levels and risk of cryptorchism among populations at high and low risk of testicular germ cell tumors.

PubMed

McGlynn, Katherine A; Graubard, Barry I; Nam, Jun-Mo; Stanczyk, Frank Z; Longnecker, Matthew P; Klebanoff, Mark A

2005-07-01

Cryptorchism is one of the few well-described risk factors for testicular cancer. It has been suggested that both conditions are related to increased in utero estrogen exposure. The evidence supporting the "estrogen hypothesis" has been inconsistent, however. An alternative hypothesis suggests that higher in utero androgen exposure may protect against the development of cryptorchism and testicular cancer. In order to examine both hypotheses, we studied maternal hormone levels in two populations at diverse risks of testicular cancer; Black Americans (low-risk) and White Americans (high-risk). The study population of 200 mothers of cryptorchid sons and 200 mothers of noncryptorchid sons was nested within the Collaborative Perinatal Project, a cohort study of pregnant women and their children. Third trimester serum levels of estradiol (total, free, bioavailable), estriol, testosterone (total, free, bioavailable), sex hormone-binding globulin, alpha-fetoprotein, and the ratios of estradiols to testosterones were compared between the case and control mothers. The results found no significant differences in the levels of testosterone (total, free, bioavailable), alpha-fetoprotein, sex hormone-binding globulin, or in the ratios of estrogens to androgens. Total estradiol, however, was significantly lower in the cases versus the controls (P = 0.03) among all mothers and, separately, among White mothers (P = 0.05). Similarly, estriol was significantly lower among all cases (P = 0.05) and among White cases (P = 0.05). These results do not support either the estrogen or the androgen hypothesis. Rather, lower estrogens in case mothers may indicate that a placental defect increases the risk of cryptorchism and, possibly, testicular cancer.

Between-airport heterogeneity in air toxics emissions associated with individual cancer risk thresholds and population risks

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Airports represent a complex source type of increasing importance contributing to air toxics risks. Comprehensive atmospheric dispersion models are beyond the scope of many applications, so it would be valuable to rapidly but accurately characterize the risk-relevant exposure implications of emissions at an airport. Methods In this study, we apply a high resolution atmospheric dispersion model (AERMOD) to 32 airports across the United States, focusing on benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and benzo [a]pyrene. We estimate the emission rates required at these airports to exceed a 10-6 lifetime cancer risk for the maximally exposed individual (emission thresholds) and estimate the total population risk at these emission rates. Results The emission thresholds vary by two orders of magnitude across airports, with variability predicted by proximity of populations to the airport and mixing height (R2 = 0.74–0.75 across pollutants). At these emission thresholds, the population risk within 50 km of the airport varies by two orders of magnitude across airports, driven by substantial heterogeneity in total population exposure per unit emissions that is related to population density and uncorrelated with emission thresholds. Conclusion Our findings indicate that site characteristics can be used to accurately predict maximum individual risk and total population risk at a given level of emissions, but that optimizing on one endpoint will be non-optimal for the other. PMID:19426510

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination.

PubMed

Burgess, Colleen; Burgess, Andrew; McMullen, Kellie

2017-01-01

Transmission of polio poses a threat to military forces when deploying to regions where such viruses are endemic. US-born soldiers generally enter service with immunity resulting from childhood immunization against polio; moreover, new recruits are routinely vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), supplemented based upon deployment circumstances. Given residual protection from childhood vaccination, risk-based vaccination may sufficiently protect troops from polio transmission. This analysis employed a mathematical system for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy. Removal of blanket immunization had no effect on simulated polio incidence among deployed military populations when risk-based immunization was employed; however, when these individuals reintegrated with their base populations, risk of transmission to nondeployed personnel increased by 19%. In the absence of both blanket- and risk-based immunization, transmission to nondeployed populations increased by 25%. The overall number of new infections among nondeployed populations was negligible for both scenarios due to high childhood immunization rates, partial protection against transmission conferred by IPV, and low global disease incidence levels. Risk-based immunization driven by deployment to polio-endemic regions is sufficient to prevent transmission among both deployed and nondeployed US military populations.

Analysis of exogenous components of mortality risks.

PubMed

Blinkin, V L

1998-04-01

A new technique for deriving exogenous components of mortality risks from national vital statistics has been developed. Each observed death rate Dij (where i corresponds to calendar time (year or interval of years) and j denotes the number of corresponding age group) was represented as Dij = Aj + BiCj, and unknown quantities Aj, Bi, and Cj were estimated by a special procedure using the least-squares principle. The coefficients of variation do not exceed 10%. It is shown that the term Aj can be interpreted as the endogenous and the second term BiCj as the exogenous components of the death rate. The aggregate of endogenous components Aj can be described by a regression function, corresponding to the Gompertz-Makeham law, A(tau) = gamma + beta x e alpha tau, where gamma, beta, and alpha are constants, tau is age, A(tau) [symbol: see text] tau = tau j identical to A(tau j) identical to Aj and tau j is the value of age tau in jth age group. The coefficients of variation for such a representation does not exceed 4%. An analysis of exogenous risk levels in the Moscow and Russian populations during 1980-1995 shows that since 1992 all components of exogenous risk in the Moscow population had been increasing up to 1994. The greatest contribution to the total level of exogenous risk was lethal diseases, and their death rate was 387 deaths per 100,000 persons in 1994, i.e., 61.9% of all deaths. The dynamics of exogenous mortality risk change during 1990-1994 in the Moscow population and in the Russian population without Moscow had been identical: the risk had been increasing and its value in the Russian population had been higher than that in the Moscow population.

Lipid Profile Components and Risk of Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Willey, Joshua Z.; Xu, Qiang; Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Paik, Myunghee C.; Moon, Yeseon Park; Sacco, Ralph L.; Elkind, Mitchell S. V.

2010-01-01

Objective To explore the relationship between lipid profile components and incident ischemic stroke in a stroke-free prospective cohort. Design Population-based prospective cohort study. Setting Northern Manhattan, New York. Patients Stroke-free community residents. Intervention As part of the Northern Manhattan Study, baseline fasting blood samples were collected on stroke-free community residents followed up for a mean of 7.5 years. Main Outcome Measures Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for lipid profile components and ischemic stroke after adjusting for demographic and risk factors. In secondary analyses, we used repeated lipid measures over 5 years from a 10% sample of the population to calculate the change per year of each of the lipid parameters and to impute time-dependent lipid parameters for the full cohort. Results After excluding those with a history of myocardial infarction, 2940 participants were available for analysis. Baseline high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and total cholesterol levels were not associated with risk of ischemic stroke. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were associated with a paradoxical reduction in risk of stroke. There was an interaction with use of cholesterol-lowering medication on follow-up, such that LDL-C level was only associated with a reduction in stroke risk among those taking medications. An LDL-C level greater than 130 mg/dL as a time-dependent covariate showed an increased risk of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.53–9.51). Conclusions Baseline lipid panel components were not associated with an increased stroke risk in this cohort. Treatment with cholesterol-lowering medications and changes in LDL-C level over time may have attenuated the risk in this population, and lipid measurements at several points may be a better marker of stroke risk. PMID:19901173

Overweight is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease in Chinese populations.

PubMed

Zhou, Beifan; Wu, Yangfeng; Yang, Jun; Li, Ying; Zhang, Hongye; Zhao, Liancheng

2002-08-01

In the last decade of the 20th century, cardiovascular disease was the leading cause of death in China, accounting for one-third of the total deaths. In comparison with western populations, the mean body weight or body mass index (BMI) of the Chinese population was lower, but showed an increasing trend. Whether the variation within lower levels of BMI or waist circumference was associated with other risk factors of cardiovascular disease, and whether they contribute independently to the risk of cardiovascular disease in the Chinese population, was investigated in this study. In keeping with a uniform study design, in each of 14 study populations at different geographical locations and with different characteristics, the incidence rates of stroke, coronary heart disease (CHD) and the causes of death were monitored in approximately/= 100000 residents from 1991 to 1995 using the MONICA procedure. Risk factors were surveyed in a random cluster sample of 1000 subjects (35-59 years of age) from each population under surveillance using internationally standardized methods and a centralized system to ensure quality control. Among the risk factors, body weight, height, and waist and hip circumferences were measured. Cross-sectional stratified analyses were used to analyse the relationship of BMI (kg m(-2)) or waist circumference to other metabolic risk factors. Ten cohorts among the 14 study populations with 24734 participants were surveyed from 1982 to 1985 as a baseline for further study and were followed-up for 9 years taking the events of stroke, CHD and different causes of death as end-points. Cox regression models were used to explore the association of BMI with the relative risks of stroke, CHD and total death. The survey in 14 random samples with a total number of 19 741 subjects showed that the mean BMI (20.8-25.1) and waist circumference (67.8-86.7 cm) were much lower than those of western populations. There was, however, variation in the anthropometric measurements among populations within China. Thus, rates of overweight varied from 2.7% to 48.1% and obesity from 0% to 9.5% on the basis of the World Health Organization (WHO) classification, but these values were lower than those found in western populations. Data from the 10 cohort samples compared with baseline data in the early 1980s showed that the mean BMIs increased significantly in eight populations during the early 1990s with the differences ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 kg m(-2). Despite the lower level of BMI and the lower rate of overweight, cross-sectional analyses showed that the prevalence of hypertension, high fasting serum glucose, high serum total cholesterol and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and their clustering were all raised with increases in BMI or waist circumference. The prospective cohort study showed that the BMI was one of the independent risk factors for stroke and CHD in Chinese populations. Hence, in a Chinese population characterized by lower levels of BMI and great variability in rates of overweight, variation of BMI was significantly related to the prevalence of other metabolic risk factors and their clustering. Overweight was one of the independent risk factors for stroke and CHD, both at population and individual levels. Given the increasing trends of BMI in the last 10 years, during the period of economic transition there is a need to encourage the population to adopt healthy dietary habits and to increase their physical activity. Health education and health promotion are important for the prevention and non-pharmacological therapy of cardiovascular disease in China.

The TSH levels and risk of hypothyroidism: Results from a population based prospective cohort study in an Iranian adult's population.

PubMed

Aminorroaya, Ashraf; Meamar, Rokhsareh; Amini, Massoud; Feizi, Awat; Nasri, Maryam; Tabatabaei, Azamosadat; Faghihimani, Elham

2017-06-01

The aim of current study was to assess the relationship between serum TSH levels and hypothyroidism risk in the euthyroid population. In a population-based cohort study, a total of 615 individuals with a normal baseline TSH, from of total population (n=2254) in 2006, were followed up for 6years. TSH, total T4, thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), and thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) were measured. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated based on logistic regression. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis along with area under the curve (AUC) was used to prediction of future hypothyroidism. TSH level in 2006 was a significant predictor for overt hypothyroidism, in the total population (RR=3.5) and female (RR=1.37) (all, P value<0.05). A cutoff value of TSH at 2.05mIU/L [AUC: (CI95 %), 0.68 (0.44-0.92; P=0.05)] was obtained for differentiating the patients with overt hypothyroidism from euthyroid. However, this cut off was not observed when we included only negative TPO and TgAbs people in 2006. The RR of hypothyroidism increased gradually when TSH level increased from 2.06-3.6mIU/L to >3.6mIU/L in the total population and both sexes. In women, the risk of overt hypothyroidism was significantly higher in subjects with TSH above 3.6 than those subject with THS levels≤2.05 [RR: (CI95 %), 20.57(2.-207.04), P value<0.05]. A cutoff value of TSH at 2.05mIU/L could predict the development of overt hypothyroidism in future. However, it was not applicable for people with negative TPOAb and negative TgAb. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Serum levels of nerve growth factor (NGF) in patients with major depression disorder and suicide risk.

PubMed

Wiener, Carolina David; de Mello Ferreira, Sharon; Pedrotti Moreira, Fernanda; Bittencourt, Guilherme; de Oliveira, Jacqueline Flores; Lopez Molina, Mariane; Jansen, Karen; de Mattos Souza, Luciano Dias; Rizzato Lara, Diogo; Portela, Luiz Valmor; da Silva, Ricardo Azevedo; Oses, Jean Pierre

2015-09-15

Nerve growth factor (NGF) is an important member of the neurotrophins group and their involvement in the pathophysiology of major depression disorder (MDD) and suicide risk (SR) has been recently suggested. The aim of this study is to evaluate the changes in NGF serum levels in individuals with MDD and with or without risk of suicide, in subjects from a young population-based sample. This is a paired cross-sectional study nested in a population-based study. Individuals were rated for MDD and SR by a diagnostic interview--Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I). The total population of the sample was comprised of 141 subjects distributed in three groups: 47 healthy controls, 47 subjects with current depressive episode without SR (MDD) and 47 subjects with current depressive episode and with SR (MDD + SR). NGF serum levels were significantly reduced in the MDD and MDD + SR groups when compared with controls (p ≤ 0.001). However, there were no differences in NGF levels between the MDD and MDD + SR groups (p = 1.000). These results suggest that reduced NGF serum levels can be a possible biomarker of MDD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranagalage, M. M.

2017-12-01

26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

Cardiometabolic risk clustering in spinal cord injury: results of exploratory factor analysis.

PubMed

Libin, Alexander; Tinsley, Emily A; Nash, Mark S; Mendez, Armando J; Burns, Patricia; Elrod, Matt; Hamm, Larry F; Groah, Suzanne L

2013-01-01

Evidence suggests an elevated prevalence of cardiometabolic risks among persons with spinal cord injury (SCI); however, the unique clustering of risk factors in this population has not been fully explored. The purpose of this study was to describe unique clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors differentiated by level of injury. One hundred twenty-one subjects (mean 37 ± 12 years; range, 18-73) with chronic C5 to T12 motor complete SCI were studied. Assessments included medical histories, anthropometrics and blood pressure, and fasting serum lipids, glucose, insulin, and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). The most common cardiometabolic risk factors were overweight/obesity, high levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C), and low levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL-C). Risk clustering was found in 76.9% of the population. Exploratory principal component factor analysis using varimax rotation revealed a 3-factor model in persons with paraplegia (65.4% variance) and a 4-factor solution in persons with tetraplegia (73.3% variance). The differences between groups were emphasized by the varied composition of the extracted factors: Lipid Profile A (total cholesterol [TC] and LDL-C), Body Mass-Hypertension Profile (body mass index [BMI], systolic blood pressure [SBP], and fasting insulin [FI]); Glycemic Profile (fasting glucose and HbA1c), and Lipid Profile B (TG and HDL-C). BMI and SBP formed a separate factor only in persons with tetraplegia. Although the majority of the population with SCI has risk clustering, the composition of the risk clusters may be dependent on level of injury, based on a factor analysis group comparison. This is clinically plausible and relevant as tetraplegics tend to be hypo- to normotensive and more sedentary, resulting in lower HDL-C and a greater propensity toward impaired carbohydrate metabolism.

Terrorism-related fear and avoidance behavior in a multiethnic urban population.

PubMed

Eisenman, David P; Glik, Deborah; Ong, Michael; Zhou, Qiong; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Long, Anna; Fielding, Jonathan; Asch, Steven

2009-01-01

We sought to determine whether groups traditionally most vulnerable to disasters would be more likely than would be others to perceive population-level risk as high (as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level) would worry more about terrorism, and would avoid activities because of terrorism concerns. We conducted a random digit dial survey of the Los Angeles County population October 2004 through January 2005 in 6 languages. We asked respondents what color alert level the country was under, how often they worry about terrorist attacks, and how often they avoid activities because of terrorism. Multivariate regression modeled correlates of worry and avoidance, including mental illness, disability, demographic factors, and estimated color-coded alert level. Persons who are mentally ill, those who are disabled, African Americans, Latinos, Chinese Americans, Korean Americans, and non-US citizens were more likely to perceive population-level risk as high, as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level. These groups also reported more worry and avoidance behaviors because of concerns about terrorism. Vulnerable populations experience a disproportionate burden of the psychosocial impact of terrorism threats and our national response. Further studies should investigate the specific behaviors affected and further elucidate disparities in the disaster burden associated with terrorism and terrorism policies.

Terrorism-Related Fear and Avoidance Behavior in a Multiethnic Urban Population

PubMed Central

Glik, Deborah; Ong, Michael; Zhou, Qiong; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Long, Anna; Fielding, Jonathan; Asch, Steven

2009-01-01

Objectives. We sought to determine whether groups traditionally most vulnerable to disasters would be more likely than would be others to perceive population-level risk as high (as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level) would worry more about terrorism, and would avoid activities because of terrorism concerns. Methods. We conducted a random digit dial survey of the Los Angeles County population October 2004 through January 2005 in 6 languages. We asked respondents what color alert level the country was under, how often they worry about terrorist attacks, and how often they avoid activities because of terrorism. Multivariate regression modeled correlates of worry and avoidance, including mental illness, disability, demographic factors, and estimated color-coded alert level. Results. Persons who are mentally ill, those who are disabled, African Americans, Latinos, Chinese Americans, Korean Americans, and non-US citizens were more likely to perceive population-level risk as high, as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level. These groups also reported more worry and avoidance behaviors because of concerns about terrorism. Conclusions. Vulnerable populations experience a disproportionate burden of the psychosocial impact of terrorism threats and our national response. Further studies should investigate the specific behaviors affected and further elucidate disparities in the disaster burden associated with terrorism and terrorism policies. PMID:19008521

Genetic variants in COL13A1, ADIPOQ and SAMM50, in addition to the PNPLA3 gene, confer susceptibility to elevated transaminase levels in an admixed Mexican population.

PubMed

Larrieta-Carrasco, Elena; Flores, Yvonne N; Macías-Kauffer, Luis R; Ramírez-Palacios, Paula; Quiterio, Manuel; Ramírez-Salazar, Eric G; León-Mimila, Paola; Rivera-Paredez, Berenice; Cabrera-Álvarez, Guillermo; Canizales-Quinteros, Samuel; Zhang, Zuo-Feng; López-Pérez, Tania V; Salmerón, Jorge; Velázquez-Cruz, Rafael

2018-02-01

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the accumulation of extra fat in liver cells not caused by alcohol. Elevated transaminase levels are common indicators of liver disease, including NAFLD. Previously, we demonstrated that PNPLA3 (rs738409), LYPLAL1 (rs12137855), PPP1R3B (rs4240624), and GCKR (rs780094) are associated with elevated transaminase levels in overweight/obese Mexican adults. We investigated the association between 288 SNPs identified in genome-wide association studies and risk of elevated transaminase levels in an admixed Mexican-Mestizo sample of 178 cases of NAFLD and 454 healthy controls. The rs2896019, rs12483959, and rs3810622 SNPs in PNPLA3 and rs1227756 in COL13A1 were associated with elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT, ≥40IU/L). A polygenic risk score (PRS) based on six SNPs in the ADIPOQ, COL13A1, PNPLA3, and SAMM50 genes was also associated with elevated ALT. Individuals carrying 9-12 risk alleles had 65.8% and 48.5% higher ALT and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, respectively, than those with 1-4 risk alleles. The PRS showed the greatest risk of elevated ALT levels, with a higher level of significance than the individual variants. Our findings suggest a significant association between variants in COL13A1, ADIPOQ, SAMM50, and PNPLA3, and risk of NAFLD/elevated transaminase levels in Mexican adults with an admixed ancestry. This is the first study to examine high-density single nucleotide screening for genetic variations in a Mexican-Mestizo population. The extent of the effect of these variations on the development and progression of NAFLD in Latino populations requires further analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vitamin D in HIV-Infected Patients

PubMed Central

JE, Lake; JS, Adams

2013-01-01

Observational studies have noted very high rates of low 25(OH)D (vitamin D) levels in both the general and HIV-infected populations. In HIV-infected patients, low 25(OH)D levels are likely a combination of both traditional risk factors and HIV- and antiretroviral therapy-specific contributors. Because of this unique risk profile, HIV-infected persons may be at greater risk for low 25(OH)D levels and frank deficiency and/or may respond to standard repletion regimens differently than HIV-uninfected patients. Currently, the optimal repletion and maintenance dosing regimens for HIV-infected patients remain unknown, as do potential benefits of supplementation that may be unique to the HIV-infected population. This paper reviews data published on HIV infection and vitamin D health in adults over the last year. PMID:21647555

Estimating effectiveness in HIV prevention trials with a Bayesian hierarchical compound Poisson frailty model

PubMed Central

Coley, Rebecca Yates; Browna, Elizabeth R.

2016-01-01

Inconsistent results in recent HIV prevention trials of pre-exposure prophylactic interventions may be due to heterogeneity in risk among study participants. Intervention effectiveness is most commonly estimated with the Cox model, which compares event times between populations. When heterogeneity is present, this population-level measure underestimates intervention effectiveness for individuals who are at risk. We propose a likelihood-based Bayesian hierarchical model that estimates the individual-level effectiveness of candidate interventions by accounting for heterogeneity in risk with a compound Poisson-distributed frailty term. This model reflects the mechanisms of HIV risk and allows that some participants are not exposed to HIV and, therefore, have no risk of seroconversion during the study. We assess model performance via simulation and apply the model to data from an HIV prevention trial. PMID:26869051

Metals and arsenic in fish from a Ramsar site under past and present human pressures: Consumption risk factors to the local population.

PubMed

Gusso-Choueri, Paloma Kachel; Araújo, Giuliana Seraphim de; Cruz, Ana Carolina Feitosa; Stremel, Tatiana Roselena de Oliveira; Campos, Sandro Xavier de; Abessa, Denis Moledo de Souza; Oliveira Ribeiro, Ciro Alberto de; Choueri, Rodrigo Brasil

2018-07-01

The risk of metals and As in seafood for traditional populations living in a Marine Protected Areas (MPA) is seldom assessed, although the risk of human exposure to contaminants is one of the indicators associated with the socioeconomic goals of MPAs. The current study aimed to estimate the potential risk of some metals (Cd, Pb, and Zn) and arsenic (As) for human health through the ingestion of fish locally harvested in a Ramsar site, the Cananéia-Iguape-Peruíbe Environmental Protected Area (APA-CIP). Previous studies showed environmental impacts in this area due to former mining activities and urbanization. Cathorops spixii, a catfish largely consumed by the local population, was collected along the estuary in three seasons with different rain regimes. Metals and As loads in muscle tissue were quantified and it was estimated (i) the target hazard quotient (THQ) and (ii) the daily intake (EDI) for metals and As, (iii) the cancer risk (CRisk) only for As, and (iv) the number of eligible meals per month. Cd, Pb, and As were found at concentrations above action levels for human consumption. Depending on the level of exposure of the local population, the consumption of C. spixii may pose risk to human health. Highest THQs were estimated for fish collected in sites closer to the main contamination sources in the APA-CIP, i.e. the mouth of Ribeira de Iguape River (P1) and the city of Cananéia (P4, P5, and P6). Arsenic showed high levels of cancer risk, although restricted to the area close to the city. The exposure of the local population to metal and As contaminated seafood cannot be disregarded in environmental studies and management of the APA-CIP. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Suicide Risk Assessment and Prevention: A Systematic Review Focusing on Veterans.

PubMed

Nelson, Heidi D; Denneson, Lauren M; Low, Allison R; Bauer, Brian W; O'Neil, Maya; Kansagara, Devan; Teo, Alan R

2017-10-01

Suicide rates in veteran and military populations in the United States are high. This article reviews studies of the accuracy of methods to identify individuals at increased risk of suicide and the effectiveness and adverse effects of health care interventions relevant to U.S. veteran and military populations in reducing suicide and suicide attempts. Trials, observational studies, and systematic reviews relevant to U.S. veterans and military personnel were identified in searches of MEDLINE, PsycINFO, SocINDEX, and Cochrane databases (January 1, 2008, to September 11, 2015), on Web sites, and in reference lists. Investigators extracted and confirmed data and dual-rated risk of bias for included studies. Nineteen studies evaluated accuracy of risk assessment methods, including models using retrospective electronic records data and clinician- or patient-rated instruments. Most methods demonstrated sensitivity ≥80% or area-under-the-curve values ≥.70 in single studies, including two studies based on electronic records of veterans and military personnel, but specificity varied. Suicide rates were reduced in six of eight observational studies of population-level interventions. Only two of ten trials of individual-level psychotherapy reported statistically significant differences between treatment and usual care. Risk assessment methods have been shown to be sensitive predictors of suicide and suicide attempts, but the frequency of false positives limits their clinical utility. Research to refine these methods and examine clinical applications is needed. Studies of suicide prevention interventions are inconclusive; trials of population-level interventions and promising therapies are required to support their clinical use.

The spectrum of thyroid disease and risk of new onset atrial fibrillation: a large population cohort study.

PubMed

Selmer, Christian; Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Hansen, Morten Lock; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Madsen, Jesper Clausager; Faber, Jens; Hansen, Peter Riis; Pedersen, Ole Dyg; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar

2012-11-27

To examine the risk of atrial fibrillation in relation to the whole spectrum of thyroid function in a large cohort of patients. Population based cohort study of general practice patients identified by linkage of nationwide registries at the individual level. Primary care patients in the city of Copenhagen. Registry data for 586,460 adults who had their thyroid function evaluated for the first time by their general practitioner during 2000-10 and who were without previously recorded thyroid disease or atrial fibrillation. Poisson regression models used to estimate risk of atrial fibrillation by thyroid function. Of the 586,460 individuals in the study population (mean (SD) age 50.2 (16.9) years, 39% men), 562,461 (96.0%) were euthyroid, 1670 (0.3%) had overt hypothyroidism, 12,087 (2.0%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, 3966 (0.7%) had overt hyperthyroidism, and 6276 (1.0%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. Compared with the euthyroid individuals, the risk of atrial fibrillation increased with decreasing levels of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) from high normal euthyroidism (incidence rate ratio 1.12 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.21)) to subclinical hyperthyroidism with reduced TSH (1.16 (0.99 to 1.36)) and subclinical hyperthyroidism with supressed TSH (1.41 (1.25 to 1.59)). Both overt and subclinical hypothyroidism were associated with a lower risk of atrial fibrillation. The risk of atrial fibrillation was closely associated with thyroid activity, with a low risk in overt hypothyroidism, high risk in hyperthyroidism, and a TSH level dependent association with risk of atrial fibrillation across the spectrum of subclinical thyroid disease.

Population-level Experiments for Population-level Risk Assessment: An Example Using the Opposum Shrimp Americamysis bahia (NACSETAC)

EPA Science Inventory

Most observations of stressor effects on marine crustaceans are made on individuals or even-aged cohorts. Results of these studies are difficult to translate into ecological predictions, either because life cycle models are incomplete, or because stressor effects on mixed age po...

Association of High-Density Lipoprotein-Cholesterol Versus Apolipoprotein A-I With Risk of Coronary Heart Disease: The European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer-Norfolk Prospective Population Study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, and the Women's Health Study.

PubMed

van Capelleveen, Julian C; Bochem, Andrea E; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Mora, Samia; Hoogeveen, Ron C; Ballantyne, Christie M; Ridker, Paul M; Sun, Wensheng; Barter, Philip J; Tall, Alan R; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Kastelein, John J P; Wareham, Nick J; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Hovingh, G Kees

2017-08-03

The contribution of apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk stratification over and above high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is unclear. We studied the associations between plasma levels of HDL-C and apoA-I, either alone or combined, with risk of CHD events and cardiovascular risk factors among apparently healthy men and women. HDL-C and apoA-I levels were measured among 17 661 participants of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-Norfolk prospective population study. Hazard ratios for CHD events and distributions of risk factors were calculated by quartiles of HDL-C and apoA-I. Results were validated using data from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and WHS (Women's Health Study) cohorts, comprising 15 494 and 27 552 individuals, respectively. In EPIC-Norfolk, both HDL-C and apoA-I quartiles were strongly and inversely associated with CHD risk. Within HDL-C quartiles, higher apoA-I levels were not associated with lower CHD risk; in fact, CHD risk was higher within some HDL-C quartiles. ApoA-I levels were associated with higher levels of CHD risk factors: higher body mass index, HbA1c, non-HDL-C, triglycerides, apolipoprotein B, systolic blood pressure, and C-reactive protein, within fixed HDL-C quartiles. In contrast, HDL-C levels were consistently inversely associated with overall CHD risk and CHD risk factors within apoA-I quartiles ( P <0.001). These findings were validated in the ARIC and WHS cohorts. Our findings demonstrate that apoA-I levels do not offer predictive information over and above HDL-C. In fact, within some HDL-C quartiles, higher apoA-I levels were associated with higher risk of CHD events, possibly because of the unexpected higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in association with higher apoA-I levels. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00000479. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Ecodevelopmental contexts for preventing type 2 diabetes in Latino and other racial/ethnic minority populations

PubMed Central

Shaibi, Gabriel Q.; Boehm-Smith, Edna

2009-01-01

Diabetes is the sixth leading cause of death in the United States and it is now cited along with obesity as a global epidemic. Significant racial/ethnic disparities exist in the prevalence of diabetes within the US, with racial and ethnic minorities disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes and its complications. Racial/ethnic and socioeconomic factors influence the development and course of diabetes at multiple levels, including genetic, individual, familial, community and national. From an ecodevelopmental perspective, cultural variables assessed at one level (e.g., family level dietary practices) may interact with other types of variables examined at other levels (e.g., the availability of healthy foods within a low-income neighborhood), thus prompting the need for a clear analysis of these systemic relationships as they may increase risks for disease. Therefore, the need exists for models that aid in “mapping out” these relationships. A more explicit conceptualization of such multi-level relationships would aid in the design of culturally relevant interventions that aim to maximize effectiveness when applied with Latinos and other racial/ethnic minority groups. This paper presents an expanded ecodevelopmental model intended to serve as a tool to aid in the design of multi-level diabetes prevention interventions for application with racial/ethnic minority populations. This discussion focuses primarily on risk factors and prevention intervention in Latino populations, although with implications for other racial/ethnic minority populations that are also at high risk for type 2 diabetes. PMID:19101788

Serum uric acid level and cardiovascular risks in hemodialysis patients: an Algerian cohort study.

PubMed

Gouri, Adel; Dekaken, Aoulia; Bentorki, Ahmed Aimen; Touaref, Amel; Yakhlef, Amina; Kouicem, Nabila

2014-01-01

Elevated serum uric acid (SUA) was usually associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in the general population. However, there are few reports concerning the clinical impact and the pathogenic role of uric acid (UA) in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between SUA and various cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in HD patients. This retrospective, observational cohort study includes 45 HD patients with a mean age of 51.26 +/- 15.21 years. The differences of the CV risk factors between the patients according to their SUA levels were investigated. Age, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), increased creatinine, fasting blood glucose (FBG), corrected calcium (cCa), phosphate (P), cCa x P product, and LDL cholesterol levels were associated with lower SUA levels, whereas a higher SUA level was associated with diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, and increased triglycerides level (p < 0.01). In multiple regression analysis, history of diabetes (beta = 0.360, p < 0.05), reduced corrected serum calcium (cCa) (beta = -1.456, p < 0.01), and phosphate (P) levels (beta = -1.752, p < 0.01) were predictive of an increased SUA concentration. Despite what has been demonstrated in the general population and DM patients, a lower SUA level in HD patients was associated with higher cardiovascular risk factors and high co-morbidity burden. Moreover, higher SUA concentrations may be cardioprotective in dialysis patients.

Serum uric acid level and cardiovascular risks in hemodialysis patients: an Algerian cohort study.

PubMed

Gouri, Adel; Dekaken, Aoulia; Bentorki, Ahmed Aimen; Touaref, Amel; Yekhlef, Amina; Sekkache, Fouzia; Kouicem, Nabila

2013-09-01

Elevated Serum Uric Acid (SUA) was usually associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in general population. However, there are few reports concerning the clinical impact and the pathogenic role of Uric Acid (UA) in Hemodialysis (HD) patients. The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between SUA and various Cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in HD patients. This retrospective; observational cohort study includes 45 HD patients with a mean age of 51.26+/-15.21 years. The differences of the CV risk factors between the patients according to their SUA levels were investigated. Age, Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD), increased creatinine, Fasting Blood Glucose (FBG), Corrected Calcium (cCa), Phosphate (P), cCa x P product and LDL cholesterol levels were associated with lower SUA levels, whereas higher SUA level was associated with Diabetes Mellitus (DM), hypertension and increased triglycerides level (p<0.01). In multiple regression analysis, history of diabetes (beta= 0.360, p<0.05), reduced corrected serum calcium (cCa) (beta = -1.456, p<0.01) and Phosphate (P) levels (beta= -1.752, p<0.01) were predictive of an increased SUA concentration. Despite from what has been demonstrated in the general population and DM patients, a lower SUA level in HD patients was associated with higher cardiovascular risk factors and high co-morbidity burden. Moreover, higher SUA concentrations may be cardioprotective in dialysis patients.

Integrating ecological risk assessments across levels of organization using the Franklin-Noss model of biodiversity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brugger, K.E.; Tiebout, H.M. III

1994-12-31

Wildlife toxicologists pioneered methodologies for assessing ecological risk to nontarget species. Historically, ecological risk assessments (ERAS) focused on a limited array of species and were based on a relatively few population-level endpoints (mortality, reproduction). Currently, risk assessment models are becoming increasingly complex that factor in multi-species interactions (across trophic levels) and utilize an increasingly diverse number of ecologically significant endpoints. This trend suggests the increasing importance of safeguarding not only populations of individual species, but also the overall integrity of the larger biotic systems that support them. In this sense, ERAs are in alignment with Conservation Biology, an applied sciencemore » of ecological knowledge used to conserve biodiversity. A theoretical conservation biology model could be incorporated in ERAs to quantify impacts to biodiversity (structure, function or composition across levels of biological organization). The authors suggest that the Franklin-Noss model for evaluating biodiversity, with its nested, hierarchical approach, may provide a suitable paradigm for assessing and integrating the ecological risk that chemical contaminants pose to biological systems from the simplest levels (genotypes, individual organisms) to the most complex levels of organization (communities and ecosystems). The Franklin-Noss model can accommodate the existing ecotoxicological database and, perhaps more importantly, indicate new areas in which critical endpoints should be identified and investigated.« less

[Regulatory radiation risks' for the population and natural objects within the Semipalatinsk Test Site].

PubMed

Spiridonov, S I; Teten'kin, V L; Mukusheva, M K; Solomatin, V M

2008-01-01

Advisability of using risks as indicators for estimating radiation impacts on environmental objects and humans has been jusified. Results are presented from identification of dose burdens distribution to various cohorts of the population living within the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) and consuming contaminated farm products. Parameters of dose burden distributions are estimated for areas of livestock grazing and the most contaminated sectors within these areas. Dose distributions to meadow plants for the above areas have been found. Regulatory radiation risks for the STS population and meadow ecosystem components have been calculated. Based on the parameters estimated, levels of radiation exposure of the population and herbaceous plants have been compared.

Exposure to community violence and self-harm in California: A multi-level, population-based, case-control study.

PubMed

Matthay, Ellicott C; Farkas, Kriszta; Skeem, Jennifer; Ahern, Jennifer

2018-06-07

Self-harm is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Exposure to community violence is an important and potentially modifiable feature of the social environment that may affect self-harm, but studies to date are limited in the samples and outcomes examined. We conducted a population-based, nested case-control study. Cases were all deaths and hospital visits due to self-harm in California, 2006-2013. We frequency-matched California resident population-based controls from the American Community Survey to cases on age, gender, race/ethnicity, and year of survey/injury. We assessed past-year community violence using deaths and hospital visits due to interpersonal violence in the community of residence. We estimated risk-difference parameters that were defined to avoid extrapolation and to capture associations between changes in the distribution of community violence and the population-level risk of self-harm. After adjustment for confounders, setting past-year community violence to the lowest monthly levels observed within each community over the study period was associated with a 30.1 (95% CI: 29.6 to 30.5) per 100,000 persons per year lower risk of nonfatal self-harm, but no difference in the risk of fatal self-harm. Associations for a parameter corresponding to a hypothetical violence prevention intervention targeting high-violence communities indicated a 5% decrease in self-harm at the population level. In sensitivity analyses, results were robust. This study strengthens evidence on the relationship between community violence and self-harm. Future research should investigate reasons for differential associations by age and gender and whether community violence prevention programs have meaningful impacts on self-harm.

APPLICATION OF ELASTICITY ANALYSES AND PERTURBATION SIMULATIONS IN DETERMINING STRESSOR IMPACTS ON POPULATION GROWTH RATE AND EXTINCTION RISK

EPA Science Inventory

Population structure and life history strategies are determinants of how populations respond to stressor-induced impairments in individual-level responses, but a consistent and holistic analysis has not been reported. Effects on population growth rate were modeled using five theo...

APPLICATION OF PERTURBATION SIMULATIONS IN POPULATION RISK ASSESSMENT FOR DIFFERENT LIFE HISTORY STRATEGIES AND ELASTICITY PATTERNS

EPA Science Inventory

Population structure and life history strategies are determinants of how populations respond to stressor-induced impairments in organism-level responses, but a consistent and holistic analysis has not been reported. Effects on population growth rate were modeled using seven theor...

Circulating concentrations of insulin markers and coronary heart disease: a quantitative review of 19 Western prospective studies.

PubMed

Sarwar, Nadeem; Sattar, Naveed; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Danesh, John

2007-10-01

It is uncertain whether there are associations between circulating levels of insulin markers and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We report an updated meta-analysis of studies of circulating levels of three insulin markers (fasting insulin, non-fasting insulin, and pro-insulin) and CHD risk. Prospective studies based in Western populations that reported on associations between levels of fasting insulin, non-fasting insulin, and pro-insulin and incident CHD [defined as non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary death] were identified by computer-based searches and by manual searches of the relevant literature. Nineteen relevant population-based studies were identified, of which 14 reported on fasting insulin levels involving 2649 CHD cases, eight reported on non-fasting insulin levels involving 1980 CHD cases and three reported on pro-insulin levels involving 413 CHD cases. In a comparison of individuals who had circulating levels of each of these markers in the top third with those in the bottom third of the population, the odds ratio for CHD was 1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98-1.28] for raised fasting insulin, 1.35 (1.14-1.60) for raised non-fasting insulin, and 2.23 (1.65-3.00) for raised pro-insulin. There was no good evidence of heterogeneity in these estimates attributable to the several study characteristics recorded, including sex, assay methods used, or degree of adjustment of risk estimates, but the available data in many of these subgroups, particularly by sex, are sparse. Associations between CHD risk and fasting or non-fasting insulin levels are likely to be more modest than previously suspected. Preliminary data suggest that pro-insulin levels may be more strongly associated with CHD risk than are insulin levels, and this possibility should be evaluated in larger and more rigorous studies.

Trends in Cardiovascular Risk Factor Levels in the Minnesota Heart Survey (1980–2002) as Compared With the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1976–2002): A Partial Explanation for Minnesota's Low Cardiovascular Disease Mortality?

PubMed Central

Wang, Huifen; Steffen, Lyn M.; Jacobs, David R.; Zhou, Xia; Blackburn, Henry; Berger, Alan K.; Filion, Kristian B.; Luepker, Russell V.

2011-01-01

The authors compared trends in and levels of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors between the Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, metropolitan area (Twin Cities) and the entire US population to help explain the ongoing decline in US CHD mortality rates. The study populations for risk factors were adults aged 25–74 years enrolled in 2 population-based surveillance studies: the Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS) in 1980–1982, 1985–1987, 1990–1992, 1995–1997, and 2000–2002 and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in 1976–1980, 1988–1994, 1999–2000, and 2001–2002. The authors found a continuous decline in CHD mortality rates in the Twin Cities and nationally between 1980 and 2000. Similar decreasing rates of change in risk factors across survey years, parallel to the CHD mortality rate decline, were observed in MHS and in NHANES. Adults in MHS had generally lower levels of CHD risk factors than NHANES adults, consistent with the CHD mortality rate difference. Approximately 47% of women and 44% of men in MHS had no elevated CHD risk factors, including smoking, hypertension, high cholesterol, and obesity, versus 36% of women and 34% of men in NHANES. The better CHD risk factor profile in the Twin Cities may partly explain the lower CHD death rate there. PMID:21273396

Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

2015-01-01

Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65). A long time-series (2001-2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related emergencies.

Urban-Hazard Risk Analysis: Mapping of Heat-Related Risks in the Elderly in Major Italian Cities

PubMed Central

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

2015-01-01

Background Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Objectives Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥65). Methods A long time-series (2001–2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using “Crichton’s Risk Triangle” hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). Results The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. Conclusions This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related emergencies. PMID:25985204

GIS-based assessment of cancer risk due to benzene in Tehran ambient air.

PubMed

Atabi, Farideh; Mirzahosseini, Seyed Alireza Hajiseyed

2013-10-01

The present study aimed to assess the risk of cancer due to benzene in the ambient air of gas stations and traffic zones in the north of Tehran. The cancer risk was estimated using the population distribution data for benzene levels and the unit risk for benzene proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). Sixteen sampling locations were monitored, once every week, during 5 April 2010 to 25 March 2011. The results showed that the mean annual benzene concentration was 14.51±3.17 parts per billion (ppb) for traffic zones and 29.01±1.32 ppb for outside gas stations. The risk calculated was 1026×10(-6) for gas station 27 and 955×10(-6) for gas station 139. According to our results, the annual benzene level in Tehran ambient air is 2 to 20 times higher than the respective value specified in International Standard (1.56 ppb). Moreover, the results showed a notable increase of cancer risks, ranging from 10% to 56%, for the vicinity population close to the gas stations in comparison to the vicinity population in the traffic zones.

Associations between socioeconomic status and cardiovascular risk factors in an urban population in China.

PubMed

Yu, Z; Nissinen, A; Vartiainen, E; Song, G; Guo, Z; Zheng, G; Tuomilehto, J; Tian, H

2000-01-01

In developed countries socioeconomic status has been proven to be an important factor in the progression of cardiovascular disease. The present article reports the results of a cross-sectional assessment to investigate the association between socioeconomic status and cardiovascular risk factors in a Chinese urban population. In 1996, a behavioural risk factor survey was carried out in Tianjin, the third largest city in China. A sample of 4000 people aged 15-69 years, stratified by sex and 10-year age groups, was drawn randomly from urban areas of the city. The present study covers respondents aged 25-69 years (1615 men and 1592 women). Four socioeconomic indicators (education, occupation, income, and marital status), blood pressure, body mass index, and cigarette smoking were determined in the survey. Educational level seemed to be the most important measure of the four socioeconomic indicators in relation to the cardiovascular risk factors in the study population. People with lower socioeconomic status had higher levels of cardiovascular risk factors. The association between socioeconomic status and cardiovascular risk factors was more consistent among women than men. Our findings do not seem to differ from those observed in developed countries.

Human behavior and opportunities for parasite transmission in communities surrounding long-tailed macaque populations in Bali, Indonesia.

PubMed

Lane-DeGraaf, Kelly E; Putra, I G A Arta; Wandia, I Nengah; Rompis, Aida; Hollocher, Hope; Fuentes, Agustin

2014-02-01

Spatial overlap and shared resources between humans and wildlife can exacerbate parasite transmission dynamics. In Bali, Indonesia, an agricultural-religious temple system provides sanctuaries for long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis), concentrating them in areas in close proximity to humans. In this study, we interviewed individuals in communities surrounding 13 macaque populations about their willingness to participate in behaviors that would put them at risk of exposure to gastrointestinal parasites to understand if age, education level, or occupation are significant determinants of exposure behaviors. These exposure risk behaviors and attitudes include fear of macaques, direct contact with macaques, owning pet macaques, hunting and eating macaques, and overlapping water uses. We find that willingness to participate in exposure risk behaviors are correlated with an individual's occupation, age, and/or education level. We also found that because the actual risk of infection varies across populations, activities such as direct macaque contact and pet ownership, could be putting individuals at real risk in certain contexts. Thus, we show that human demographics and social structure can influence willingness to participate in behaviors putting them at increased risk for exposure to parasites. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

PubMed Central

Purvis, Andy; Sechrest, Wes; Gittleman, John L; Bielby, Jon; Mace, Georgina M

2004-01-01

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future. PMID:15252445

[Cardiovascular diseases risk factors knowledge among soldiers of the Polish army].

PubMed

Olszewski, Robert; Grabysa, Radosław; Kwasiborski, Przemysław J; Makowski, Tomasz; Warmiński, Janusz; Szczechowicz, Robert; Kubik, Leszek

2009-10-01

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of death and disability in Poland. There are many risk factors of CVD which are modifiable due to preventive strategies. Knowledge about these factors among population at risk of CVD is the most important condition for success of them. To evaluate the knowledge of CVD risk factors among soldiers of the Polish Army and try to identify a demographic factors influenced on them. Authors investigated the level of knowledge about CVD risk factors among 644 soldiers (aged between 18 to 62 years) using the special questionnaire. Whole group was analyzed according to a place of origin: city, town and village and according to a function: professionals and conscripts. Soldiers achieved a total score of 58.4% correct answers. Commonly known risk factors of CVD (average 82% of correct answers) in studied group were: obesity, tobacco smoking, high level of cholesterol and hypertension. Knowledge about above risk factors was significantly higher (p < 0.01) than about other. Lesser known risk factors (average 54% of correct answers) were: male gender, abnormal diet, sedentary lifestyle, family history of CVDs, diabetes, family history of heart infarction below 55 yrs and peripheral atherosclerosis. residents achieved 64.5% correct answers, town--61.5%, and village--58%. Professionals achieved 65.1% vs. 58.8% for conscripts. The level of knowledge about CVD risk factors are significantly higher among professionals than in urban population. Our data confirm the need of continuation and developing new CVDs preventive strategies in Poland, especially among poor educated and village populations. There is a need to emphasize the role of lesser known, modifiable CVD risk factors (e.g., obesity, sedentary lifestyle) in existing and future health programs.

Levels of beta-microseminoprotein in blood and risk of prostate cancer in multiple populations.

PubMed

Haiman, Christopher A; Stram, Daniel O; Vickers, Andrew J; Wilkens, Lynne R; Braun, Katharina; Valtonen-André, Camilla; Peltola, Mari; Pettersson, Kim; Waters, Kevin M; Marchand, Loic Le; Kolonel, Laurence N; Henderson, Brian E; Lilja, Hans

2013-02-06

A common genetic variant (rs10993994) in the 5' region of the gene encoding β-microseminoprotein (MSP) is associated with circulating levels of MSP and prostate cancer risk. Whether MSP levels are predictive of prostate cancer risk has not been evaluated. We investigated the prospective relationship between circulating plasma levels of MSP and prostate cancer risk in a nested case-control study of 1503 case subjects and 1503 control subjects among black, Latino, Japanese, Native Hawaiian, and white men from the Multiethnic Cohort study. We also examined the ability of MSP to serve as a biomarker for discriminating prostate cancer case subjects from control subjects. All statistical tests are two-sided. In all racial and ethnic groups, men with lower MSP levels were at greater risk of developing prostate cancer (odds ratio = 1.02 per one unit decrease in MSP, P < .001 in the prostate-specific antigen [PSA]-adjusted analysis). Compared with men in the highest decile of MSP, the multivariable PSA-adjusted odds ratio was 3.64 (95% confidence interval = 2.41 to 5.49) for men in the lowest decile. The positive association with lower MSP levels was observed consistently across racial and ethnic populations, by disease stage and Gleason score, for men with both high and low levels of PSA and across all genotype classes of rs10993994. However, we did not detect strong evidence of MSP levels in improving prostate cancer prediction beyond that of PSA. Regardless of race and ethnicity or rs10993994 genotype, men with low blood levels of MSP have increased risk of prostate cancer.

Association of Heart-Type Fatty Acid-Binding Protein with Cardiovascular Risk Factors and All-Cause Mortality in the General Population: The Takahata Study

PubMed Central

Otaki, Yoichiro; Watanabe, Tetsu; Takahashi, Hiroki; Hirayama, Atushi; Narumi, Taro; Kadowaki, Shinpei; Honda, Yuki; Arimoto, Takanori; Shishido, Tetsuro; Miyamoto, Takuya; Konta, Tsuneo; Shibata, Yoko; Fukao, Akira; Daimon, Makoto; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Kato, Takeo; Kayama, Takamasa; Kubota, Isao

2014-01-01

Background Despite many recent advances in medicine, preventing the development of cardiovascular diseases remains a challenge. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) is a marker of ongoing myocardial damage and has been reported to be a useful indicator for future cardiovascular events. However, it remains to be determined whether H-FABP can predict all-cause and cardiovascular deaths in the general population. Methods and Results This longitudinal cohort study included 3,503 subjects who participated in a community-based health checkup with a 7-year follow-up. Serum H-FABP was measured in registered subjects. The results demonstrated that higher H-FABP levels were associated with increasing numbers of cardiovascular risk factors, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, and metabolic syndrome. There were 158 deaths during the follow-up period, including 50 cardiovascular deaths. Deceased subjects had higher H-FABP levels compared to surviving subjects. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis revealed that H-FABP is an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths after adjustments for confounding factors. Subjects were divided into four quartiles according to H-FABP level, and Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the highest H-FABP quartile was associated with the greatest risks for all-cause and cardiovascular deaths. Net reclassification index and integrated discrimination index were significantly increased by addition of H-FABP to cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions H-FABP level was increased in association with greater numbers of cardiovascular risk factors and was an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular deaths. H-FABP could be a useful indicator for the early identification of high-risk subjects in the general population. PMID:24847804

Cardiovascular Risk and Serum Hyaluronic Acid: A Preliminary Study in a Healthy Population of Low/Intermediate Risk.

PubMed

Papanastasopoulou, Chrysanthi; Papastamataki, Maria; Karampatsis, Petros; Anagnostopoulou, Eleni; Papassotiriou, Ioannis; Sitaras, Nikolaos

2017-01-01

Hyaluronic acid (HA) has been found to be an important trigger of atherosclerosis. In this study, we investigate the possible association of serum HA with cardiovascular disease risk in a population of low/intermediate risk for cardiovascular events. We enrolled 200 subjects with low/intermediate risk for developing cardiovascular disease. High specific C-reactive protein (hsCRP) was used as an indicator of preclinical atherosclerosis. The Framingham score was used to calculate the cardiovascular risk. Participants with dyslipidemia had significantly higher levels of serum HA than those without dyslipidemia (t-test, P = 0.05), higher levels of hsCRP (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.04), and higher cardiovascular risk according to the Framingham score (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.05). Serum HA concentration correlated significantly with the Framingham score for risk for coronary heart disease over the next 10 years (Spearman r = 0.152, P = 0.02). Diabetic volunteers had significantly higher HA than those without diabetes (t-test, P = 0.02). Participants with metabolic syndrome had higher serum HA levels and higher hsCRP (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.01) compared to volunteers without metabolic syndrome (t-test, P = 0.03). Serum HA should be explored as an early marker of atheromatosis and cardiovascular risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Study of population profiles in relation to the level of suicide risk in France: Study "Mental health in the general population"].

PubMed

Chabaud, Francis; Debarre, Julie; Serazin, Céline; Bouet, Roland; Vaïva, Guillaume; Roelandt, Jean Luc

2010-01-01

Suicidal behaviour is a very important public health issue. The French study of mental health in the general population casts a whole new insight on this issue thanks to the size of the sample used, to its representative nature and to the variety of the collected data. This study aims at defining better the relationships between the factors of suicide risk within a noninstitutionalized adult population and more specifically between the socioeconomic and the psychopathological factors. The final aim is to help define the intervention strategies which should be developed in the context of prevention programs. The method used consists in estimating the suicide risk for each person included in the study by developing a standardized indicator. Six questions taken from the MINI (Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview) were used to define the four levels of suicide risks which compose this indicator. Next, this indicator was matched for the socioeconomic variables of the study as well as for the main psychopathological categories. A factor analysis of the numerous relations was then carried out. Its principle consisted in synthesizing the information contained in a great number of variables and individuals thanks to the mathematical projection of these features onto a graph. The variables which were retained for the analysis were those which presented the richest relationship with the main variable.(that is to say the level of suicide risk). The estimated prevalence rate of suicidal risk in the general population (with at least one positive answer) is 13.7% which can be divided into 9.7% of low risk, 2.1% of medium risk and 1.9% of high risk. The relationship between the presence of a psychopathology and a medium or high risk of suicide is quite significant. What is more, the presence of associated pathologies (comorbidities) increases the risk. The highest prevalence of risk is observed in psychotic and depressive disorders. However, suicide risk exists in some people who do not present any detected psychopathology : the statistical analysis reveals an excessive medium and high suicide risk in relation to a low family income, unemployment, separation and the 18 to 24 age group. The multidimensional analysis brings to light several specific aspects : the principal explanation shows a relationship between unfavourable socio economic status and the presence of suicide risk at a level which is not equal to zero. The second explanatory line defines the level of risk according to the principal psychopathological characteristics. These two lines define a plane which enables to differentiate low risk groups from medium risk groups and high risk groups. The latter consists mainly in isolated pathological factors or associated factors (comorbidities). The medium and high risk groups are composed mainly of the combination of the two variables. To conclude, these results - which are necessarily flimsy since they are based on epidemiological and statistical analysis - do however match up with the data of the epidemiologic literature in an interesting way and raise the question of an intervention and prevention strategy that would integrate better the medical factors and the socio economic aspects into its program. They should be completed by targeted forward clinical studies as well as by more precise epidemiological patterns. Copyright 2010 L’Encéphale. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.. All rights reserved.

Correlation between educational status and cardiovascular risk factors in an overweight and obese Turkish female population.

PubMed

Tanyolaç, Sinan; Sertkaya Cikim, Ayşe; Doğan Azezli, Adil; Orhan, Yusuf

2008-10-01

The prevalence of obesity is rapidly increasing in Turkey as well as all over the world. Educational inequalities play an important role in the development of obesity. In this study, our aim is to evaluate how educational status affects obesity and cardiovascular risk factors in the overweight and obese Turkish female population. In this study, 3080 overweight (n=633) and obese (n=2447) Turkish women who applied to Istanbul Faculty of Medicine Obesity Outpatient Clinic were evaluated retrospectively. Educational status was classified according to the subjects' latest term of education. Subjects were evaluated in terms of anthropometric and biochemical parameters. The association of educational level with cardiovascular risk factors and metabolic syndrome were analyzed using logistic regression analysis. Educational levels after adjusted continuous variables (age and body mass index) showed significant correlation with waist circumference, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and glucose. Low educated class (LEC) had a 1.93 (95% CI--1.56-2.39, p=0.001) fold increased risk than high educated subjects for cardiovascular risk factors. Metabolic syndrome prevalence was more prevalent and significant risk increase was observed in LEC (OR=2.02, 95% CI--.53-2.67, p=0.001). Low educational status is a contributing factor for development of obesity and increased risk for obesity related disorders in the Turkish overweight and obese female population. Population based information and educational policies might prevent obesity related disorders and decrease cardiovascular mortality.

A Prevention Program for Preschool C.O.A.s: Design and Early Effects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zucker, Robert A.; And Others

This report addresses three levels of questions about the effectiveness of the Michigan State University Multiple Risk Outreach Program (MROP). The MROP was designed to recruit families from this high-risk population and test the implementation of an intervention protocol in a population-based program for 3- to 6-year-olds and their families. This…

Association of educational status with cardiovascular disease: Teheran Lipid and Glucose Study.

PubMed

Hajsheikholeslami, Farhad; Hatami, Masumeh; Hadaegh, Farzad; Ghanbarian, Arash; Azizi, Fereidoun

2011-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the associations between educational level and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in an older Iranian population. To estimate the odds ratio (OR) of educational level in a cross-sectional study, logistic regression analysis was used on 1,788 men and 2,204 women (222 men and 204 women positive based on their CVD status) aged ≥ 45 years. In men, educational levels of college degree and literacy level below diploma were inversely associated with CVD in the multivariate model [0.52 (0.28-0.94), 0.61 (0.40-0.92), respectively], but diploma level did not show any significant association with CVD, neither in the crude model nor in the multivariate model. In women, increase in educational level was inversely associated with risk of CVD in the crude model, but in the multivariate adjusted model, literacy level below diploma decreased risk of CVD by 39%, compared with illiteracy. Our findings support those of developed countries that, along with other CVD risk factors, educational status has an inverse association with CVD among a representative Iranian population of older men and women.

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination

PubMed Central

Burgess, Andrew

2017-01-01

Objectives Transmission of polio poses a threat to military forces when deploying to regions where such viruses are endemic. US-born soldiers generally enter service with immunity resulting from childhood immunization against polio; moreover, new recruits are routinely vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), supplemented based upon deployment circumstances. Given residual protection from childhood vaccination, risk-based vaccination may sufficiently protect troops from polio transmission. Methods This analysis employed a mathematical system for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy. Results Removal of blanket immunization had no effect on simulated polio incidence among deployed military populations when risk-based immunization was employed; however, when these individuals reintegrated with their base populations, risk of transmission to nondeployed personnel increased by 19%. In the absence of both blanket- and risk-based immunization, transmission to nondeployed populations increased by 25%. The overall number of new infections among nondeployed populations was negligible for both scenarios due to high childhood immunization rates, partial protection against transmission conferred by IPV, and low global disease incidence levels. Conclusion Risk-based immunization driven by deployment to polio-endemic regions is sufficient to prevent transmission among both deployed and nondeployed US military populations. PMID:29104608

Hepatitis C Virus Epidemiology in Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Chaabna, Karima; Kouyoumjian, Silva P; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

2016-01-01

To characterize hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology and assess country-specific population-level HCV prevalence in four countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Reports of HCV prevalence were systematically reviewed as per PRISMA guidelines. Pooled HCV prevalence estimates in different risk populations were conducted when the number of measures per risk category was at least five. We identified 101 prevalence estimates. Pooled HCV antibody prevalence in the general population in Somalia, Sudan and Yemen was 0.9% (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 0.3%-1.9%), 1.0% (95%CI: 0.3%-1.9%) and 1.9% (95%CI: 1.4%-2.6%), respectively. The only general population study from Djibouti reported a prevalence of 0.3% (CI: 0.2%-0.4%) in blood donors. In high-risk populations (e.g., haemodialysis and haemophilia patients), pooled HCV prevalence was 17.3% (95%CI: 8.6%-28.2%) in Sudan. In Yemen, three studies of haemodialysis patients reported HCV prevalence between 40.0%-62.7%. In intermediate-risk populations (e.g.. healthcare workers, in patients and men who have sex with men), pooled HCV prevalence was 1.7% (95%CI: 0.0%-4.9%) in Somalia and 0.6% (95%CI: 0.4%-0.8%) in Sudan. National HCV prevalence in Yemen appears to be higher than in Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan as well as most other MENA countries; but otherwise prevalence levels in this subregion are comparable to global levels. The high HCV prevalence in patients who have undergone clinical care appears to reflect ongoing transmission in clinical settings. HCV prevalence in people who inject drugs remains unknown.

Hepatitis C Virus Epidemiology in Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Chaabna, Karima; Kouyoumjian, Silva P.; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

2016-01-01

Objectives To characterize hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology and assess country-specific population-level HCV prevalence in four countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Methods Reports of HCV prevalence were systematically reviewed as per PRISMA guidelines. Pooled HCV prevalence estimates in different risk populations were conducted when the number of measures per risk category was at least five. Results We identified 101 prevalence estimates. Pooled HCV antibody prevalence in the general population in Somalia, Sudan and Yemen was 0.9% (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 0.3%–1.9%), 1.0% (95%CI: 0.3%–1.9%) and 1.9% (95%CI: 1.4%–2.6%), respectively. The only general population study from Djibouti reported a prevalence of 0.3% (CI: 0.2%–0.4%) in blood donors. In high-risk populations (e.g., haemodialysis and haemophilia patients), pooled HCV prevalence was 17.3% (95%CI: 8.6%–28.2%) in Sudan. In Yemen, three studies of haemodialysis patients reported HCV prevalence between 40.0%-62.7%. In intermediate-risk populations (e.g.. healthcare workers, in patients and men who have sex with men), pooled HCV prevalence was 1.7% (95%CI: 0.0%–4.9%) in Somalia and 0.6% (95%CI: 0.4%–0.8%) in Sudan. Conclusion National HCV prevalence in Yemen appears to be higher than in Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan as well as most other MENA countries; but otherwise prevalence levels in this subregion are comparable to global levels. The high HCV prevalence in patients who have undergone clinical care appears to reflect ongoing transmission in clinical settings. HCV prevalence in people who inject drugs remains unknown. PMID:26900839

Risk factors of carotid plaque and carotid common artery intima-media thickening in a high-stroke-risk population.

PubMed

Wang, ChunFang; Lv, GaoPeng; Zang, DaWei

2017-11-01

To analyze the risk factors of carotid plaque (CP) and carotid common artery intima-media thickening (CCAIMT) and the association between the risk factors and CP numbers and the side of the CCAIMT in a high-stroke-risk population. Carotid ultrasonography was conducted in 2025 participants with high stroke risk. Participants were divided into different groups according to the results of the ultrasound. The risk factors and blood biochemical indices were recorded. The presence of CP and CCAIMT were 38.9% and 24.8% respectively. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that the risk factors of CP were age, high LDL-C and FBG levels, male gender, stroke, diabetes, hypertension, and tobacco use. Compared with participants without CPs, the participants who were male, and older in age, with risk factors of tobacco use, diabetes, high LDL-C levels, and a family history of hypertension were likely to have a single CP, whereas the participants with risk factors of tobacco use, diabetes, hypertension, male gender, older age, high LDL-C levels, stroke and AF or valvulopathy were prone to have multiple CPs. The risk factors of CCAIMT were male gender, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, AF or valvulopathy, tobacco use and age. Compared with the N-CCAIMT subgroup, the risk factors of left CCAIMT were tobacco use, diabetes, male gender, and age. The risk factors of right CCAIMT were male gender, high FBG levels, age, AF or valvulopathy. The risk factors of dual CCAIMT were high frequency of drinking milk, tobacco use, male gender, age, stroke, and hypertension. These findings revealed the risk factors of CP and CCAIMT, and an association between the risk factors and the CP numbers and the side of the CCAIMT.

Refinement of arsenic attributable health risks in rural Pakistan using population specific dietary intake values.

PubMed

Rasheed, Hifza; Slack, Rebecca; Kay, Paul; Gong, Yun Yun

2017-02-01

Previous risk assessment studies have often utilised generic consumption or intake values when evaluating ingestion exposure pathways. If these values do not accurately reflect the country or scenario in question, the resulting risk assessment will not provide a meaningful representation of cancer risks in that particular country/scenario. This study sought to determine water and food intake parameters for one region in South Asia, rural Pakistan, and assess the role population specific intake parameters play in cancer risk assessment. A questionnaire was developed to collect data on sociodemographic features and 24-h water and food consumption patterns from a rural community. The impact of dietary differences on cancer susceptibility linked to arsenic exposure was evaluated by calculating cancer risks using the data collected in the current study against standard water and food intake levels for the USA, Europe and Asia. A probabilistic cancer risk was performed for each set of intake values of this study. Average daily total water intake based on drinking direct plain water and indirect water from food and beverages was found to be 3.5Lday -1 (95% CI: 3.38, 3.57) exceeding the US Environmental Protection Agency's default (2.5Lday -1 ) and World Health Organization's recommended intake value (2Lday -1 ). Average daily rice intake (469gday -1 ) was found to be lower than in India and Bangladesh whereas wheat intake (402gday -1 ) was higher than intake reported for USA, Europe and Asian sub-regions. Consequently, arsenic-associated cumulative cancer risks determined for daily water intake was found to be 17 chances in children of 3-6years (95% CI: 0.0014, 0.0017), 14 in children of age 6-16years (95% CI: 0.001, 0.0011) and 6 in adults of 16-67years (95% CI: 0.0006, 0.0006) in a population size of 10,000. This is higher than the risks estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency and World Health Organization's default recommended water intake levels. Rice intake data showed early life cumulative cancer risks of 15 chances in 10,000 for children of 3-6years (95% CI: 0.0012, 0.0015), 14 in children of 6-16years (95% CI: 0.0011, 0.0014) and later life risk of 8 adults (95% CI: 0.0008, 0.0008) in a population of 10,000. This is lower than the cancer risks in countries with higher rice intake and elevated arsenic levels (Bangladesh and India). Cumulative cancer risk from arsenic exposure showed the relative risk contribution from total water to be 51%, from rice to be 44% and 5% from wheat intake. The study demonstrates the need to use population specific dietary information for risk assessment and risk management studies. Probabilistic risk assessment concluded the importance of dietary intake in estimating cancer risk, along with arsenic concentrations in water or food and age of exposed rural population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of reference values for elevated fasting and random insulin levels and their associations with metabolic risk factors among rural Pakistanis from Sindh Province.

PubMed

Ahmadani, Muhammad Yakoob; Hakeem, Rubina; Fawwad, Asher; Basit, Abdul; Shera, A Samad

2008-06-01

To assess insulin levels and their association with metabolic risk factors (family history of diabetes, abnormal glucose tolerance, hypertension, overweight and android obesity) among a representative group of Pakistan. The study data was taken from the database of a population-based survey conducted in Sindh Province, Pakistan, in 1994 to assess the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Through stratified random sampling; oral glucose tolerance tests were performed in 967 adults; every fifth sample was estimated for fasting and random (2-hour post-75 gm glucose load) insulin levels. The total number of metabolic risk factors was counted for each subject, and their association with insulin levels studied. Of the 130 subjects, 56.1% were females and 95.4% were Sindhi. The mean age of males and females was 43.84 and 40.61 years, respectively. Family history for diabetes and frequency of overweight had significant positive associations with both fasting and random insulin levels (P < 0.05). Association between hypertension and insulin levels was significant only for random insulin levels, and between android obesity, abnormal glucose tolerance, or male gender and insulin levels only for fasting insulin levels (P < 0.05). Metabolic risk factors had significant positive associations with both fasting (r = 0.351 P = 0.000) as well as random insulin levels (r = 0.364 P = 0.000). This paper provides baseline pioneering information applicable to the Pakistani population. Furthermore, the observations made in this study about differences in association of fasting or random insulin levels with various metabolic risk factors highlight the possibility of using either of them for risk assessment. This finding needs to be assessed in a larger and nationally representative sample.

Human health risk assessment with spatial analysis: study of a population chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water from Argentina.

PubMed

Navoni, J A; De Pietri, D; Olmos, V; Gimenez, C; Bovi Mitre, G; de Titto, E; Villaamil Lepori, E C

2014-11-15

Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element widely distributed in the environment. This metalloid has proven carcinogenic action in man. The aim of this work was to assess the health risk related to As exposure through drinking water in an Argentinean population, applying spatial analytical techniques in addition to conventional approaches. The study involved 650 inhabitants from Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces. Arsenic in drinking water (Asw) and urine (UAs) was measured by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) were estimated, geo-referenced and integrated with demographical data by a health composite index (HI) applying geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Asw covered a wide range of concentration: from non-detectable (ND) to 2000 μg/L. More than 90% of the population was exposed to As, with UAs levels above the intervention level of 100 μg/g creatinine. GIS analysis described an expected level of exposure lower than the observed, indicating possible additional source/s of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In 68% of the locations, the population had a HQ greater than 1, and the CR ranged between 5·10(-5) and 2,1·10(-2). An environmental exposure area through ADD geo-referencing defined a baseline scenario for space-time risk assessment. The time of residence, the demographic density and the potential health considered outcomes helped characterize the health risk in the region. The geospatial analysis contributed to delimitate and analyze the change tendencies of risk in the region, broadening the scopes of the results for a decision-making process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Evaluation of human health risk for a population from Cali, Colombia, by exposure to lead, cadmium, mercury, 2,4-dichloro-phenoxyacetic acid and diuron associated with water and food consumption].

PubMed

Echeverry, Ghisliane; Zapata, Andrés Mauricio; Páez, Martha Isabel; Méndez, Fabián; Peña, Miguel

2015-08-01

Exposure to pollutants such as pesticides and heavy metals has been linked to health problems. Several studies have revealed the presence of these contaminants in Cali; however, there is no information available about the main routes of exposure and risk of these contaminants. To estimate the risk associated with the intake of cadmium, lead and mercury, and pesticides 2,4-D and diuron through the consumption of water and food in a population in Cali. Population and environmental data were obtained, and a risk assessment was performed using United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines. The concentrations of the evaluated pollutants were below permissible levels as established by the Colombian Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y Desarrollo Territorial (3 µg/L -1 of cadmium; 10 µg/L -1 of lead; 1 µg/L -1 of mercury; 1 µg/L -1 of 2,4 D; 1 µg/L -1 of diuron). Salema butterfish ( Peprilus snyderi ) samples contained levels of cadmium between 20 and 80 µg/kg -1 , which are below the permissible limit set by the World Health Organization (100 µg/kg -1 ). The results of the risk assessment indicated that the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic attributable risk to population health from the intake of food contaminants was below the maximum level permitted by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. It is believed that the findings in previous studies on pollutants may have been due to specific contamination events; therefore, monitoring and early warning about water intake is recommended. Furthermore, the report of cadmium being found in fish consumed as food suggests the need for quality control by regulators.

Cost-effectiveness of root caries preventive treatments.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Göstemeyer, Gerd

2017-01-01

With a growing number of individuals retaining their teeth lifelong, often with periodontitis-induced root surface exposure, there is the need for cost-effective management strategies for root caries lesions. The present study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of root caries preventive treatments. Patients were simulated over 10 years using a Markov model. Four treatments were compared: No treatment, daily 225-800ppm fluoride rinses, chlorhexidine (CHX) varnish (2×/year), silver diamine fluoride (SDF) varnish (2×/year). Data from a systematic review were submitted to network meta-analysis for inferring relative efficacies of treatments. The health outcome was years of teeth being free of root caries. A mixed public-private payer perspective within 2016 German healthcare was taken, with costs being estimated from fee item catalogues or based on market prices. Populations with different numbers of teeth and tooth-level risks were modelled. Monte-Carlo microsimulations, univariate- and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. In populations with 16 teeth at risk and low tooth-level risk for root caries, providing no preventive treatment was least costly, but also least effective (130 Euro, 144 years). SDF ranked next, being more costly (180 Euro), but also more effective (151 years). Payers willing to invest 8.30 Euro per root caries-free tooth-year found SDF most cost-effective. CHX varnish and fluoride rinse were not cost-effective. In populations with more teeth and high tooth-level risk, SDF was the most effective and least costly option. Root caries preventive treatments (like SDF) are effective and might even be cost-saving in high risk populations. Application of SDF can be recommended as a cost-saving treatment for prevention of root caries in patients with high risk of root caries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences between seven measures of self-reported numbers of clients of female sex workers in southern India: implications for individual- and population-level analysis.

PubMed

Deering, Kathleen N; Vickerman, P; Pickles, M; Moses, S; Blanchard, J F; Ramesh, B M; Isac, S; Boily, M-C

2013-02-01

Quantifying sexual activity of sub-populations with high-risk sexual behaviour is important in understanding HIV epidemiology. This study examined inconsistency of seven outcomes measuring self-reported clients per month (CPM) of female sex workers (FSWs) in southern India and implications for individual/population-level analysis. Multivariate negative binomial regression was used to compare key social/environmental factors associated with each outcome. A transmission dynamics model was used to assess the impact of differences between outcomes on population-level FSW/client HIV prevalence. Outcomes based on 'clients per last working day' produced lower estimates than those based on 'clients per typical day'. Although the outcomes were strongly correlated, their averages differed by approximately two-fold (range 39.0-79.1 CPM). The CPM measure chosen did not greatly influence standard epidemiological 'risk factor' analysis. Differences across outcomes influenced HIV prevalence predictions. Due to this uncertainty, we recommend basing population-based estimates on the range of outcomes, particularly when assessing the impact of interventions.

Conceptual Framework for Trait-Based Ecological Risk Assessment for Wildlife Populations Exposed to Pesticides

EPA Science Inventory

Between screening level risk assessments and complex ecological models, a need exists for practical identification of risk based on general information about species, chemicals, and exposure scenarios. Several studies have identified demographic, biological, and toxicological fa...

Quantifying the Effects of Pesticide Exposure on Seasonal Fecundity Rates of Birds

EPA Science Inventory

Current risk assessment practice uses the results of avian reproduction tests in risk quotients to classify the potential for pesticide use to adversely affect avian reproductive success. However, as risk assessors move toward better understanding the population-level consequenc...

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

The impact of an integrated population health enhancement and disease management program on employee health risk, health conditions, and productivity.

PubMed

Loeppke, Ron; Nicholson, Sean; Taitel, Michael; Sweeney, Matthew; Haufle, Vince; Kessler, Ronald C

2008-12-01

This study evaluated the impact of an integrated population health enhancement program on employee health risks, health conditions, and productivity. Specifically, we analyzed changes in these measures among a cohort of 543 employees who completed a health risk assessment in both 2003 and 2005. We compared these findings with 2 different sets of employees who were not offered health enhancement programming. We found that the DIRECTV cohort showed a significant reduction in health risks after exposure to the program. Relative to a matched comparison group, the proportion of low-risk employees at DIRECTV in 2005 was 8.2 percentage points higher; the proportion of medium-risk employees was 7.1 percentage points lower; and the proportion of high-risk employees was 1.1 percentage points lower (p < 0.001). The most noticeable changes in health risk were a reduction in the proportion of employees with high cholesterol; an improvement in diet; a reduction of heavy drinking; management of high blood pressure; improved stress management; increased exercise; fewer smokers; and a drop in obesity rates. We also found that a majority of employees who improved their risk levels from 2003 to 2005 maintained their gains in 2006. Employees who improved their risks levels also demonstrated relative improvement in absenteeism. Overall, this study provides additional evidence that integrated population health enhancement positively impacts employees' health risk and productivity; it also reinforces the view that "good health is good business."

Assessment of Population Status for a White Sucker (Catostomus commersoni) Population Exposed to Bleached Kraft Pulp Mill Effluent

EPA Science Inventory

Credible ecological risk assessments often need to include analysis of population-level impacts. In the present study, a predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) co...

Area-level risk factors for adverse birth outcomes: trends in urban and rural settings

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Significant and persistent racial and income disparities in birth outcomes exist in the US. The analyses in this manuscript examine whether adverse birth outcome time trends and associations between area-level variables and adverse birth outcomes differ by urban–rural status. Methods Alabama births records were merged with ZIP code-level census measures of race, poverty, and rurality. B-splines were used to determine long-term preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) trends by rurality. Logistic regression models were used to examine differences in the relationships between ZIP code-level percent poverty or percent African-American with either PTB or LBW. Interactions with rurality were examined. Results Population dense areas had higher adverse birth outcome rates compared to other regions. For LBW, the disparity between population dense and other regions increased during the 1991–2005 time period, and the magnitude of the disparity was maintained through 2010. Overall PTB and LBW rates have decreased since 2006, except within isolated rural regions. The addition of individual-level socioeconomic or race risk factors greatly attenuated these geographical disparities, but isolated rural regions maintained increased odds of adverse birth outcomes. ZIP code-level percent poverty and percent African American both had significant relationships with adverse birth outcomes. Poverty associations remained significant in the most population-dense regions when models were adjusted for individual-level risk factors. Conclusions Population dense urban areas have heightened rates of adverse birth outcomes. High-poverty African American areas have higher odds of adverse birth outcomes in urban versus rural regions. These results suggest there are urban-specific social or environmental factors increasing risk for adverse birth outcomes in underserved communities. On the other hand, trends in PTBs and LBWs suggest interventions that have decreased adverse birth outcomes elsewhere may not be reaching isolated rural areas. PMID:23759062

Risk assessment considerations with regard to the potential impacts of pesticides on endangered species.

PubMed

Brain, Richard A; Teed, R Scott; Bang, JiSu; Thorbek, Pernille; Perine, Jeff; Peranginangin, Natalia; Kim, Myoungwoo; Valenti, Ted; Chen, Wenlin; Breton, Roger L; Rodney, Sara I; Moore, Dwayne R J

2015-01-01

Simple, deterministic screening-level assessments that are highly conservative by design facilitate a rapid initial screening to determine whether a pesticide active ingredient has the potential to adversely affect threatened or endangered species. If a worst-case estimate of pesticide exposure is below a very conservative effects metric (e.g., the no observed effects concentration of the most sensitive tested surrogate species) then the potential risks are considered de minimis and unlikely to jeopardize the existence of a threatened or endangered species. Thus by design, such compounded layers of conservatism are intended to minimize potential Type II errors (failure to reject a false null hypothesis of de minimus risk), but correspondingly increase Type I errors (falsely reject a null hypothesis of de minimus risk). Because of the conservatism inherent in screening-level risk assessments, higher-tier scientific information and analyses that provide additional environmental realism can be applied in cases where a potential risk has been identified. This information includes community-level effects data, environmental fate and exposure data, monitoring data, geospatial location and proximity data, species biology data, and probabilistic exposure and population models. Given that the definition of "risk" includes likelihood and magnitude of effect, higher-tier risk assessments should use probabilistic techniques that more accurately and realistically characterize risk. Moreover, where possible and appropriate, risk assessments should focus on effects at the population and community levels of organization rather than the more traditional focus on the organism level. This document provides a review of some types of higher-tier data and assessment refinements available to more accurately and realistically evaluate potential risks of pesticide use to threatened and endangered species. © 2014 SETAC.

Online Prediction of Health Care Utilization in the Next Six Months Based on Electronic Health Record Information: A Cohort and Validation Study.

PubMed

Hu, Zhongkai; Hao, Shiying; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Young; Zhu, Chunqing; Huang, Min; Wang, Yue; Zheng, Le; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng

2015-09-22

The increasing rate of health care expenditures in the United States has placed a significant burden on the nation's economy. Predicting future health care utilization of patients can provide useful information to better understand and manage overall health care deliveries and clinical resource allocation. This study developed an electronic medical record (EMR)-based online risk model predictive of resource utilization for patients in Maine in the next 6 months across all payers, all diseases, and all demographic groups. In the HealthInfoNet, Maine's health information exchange (HIE), a retrospective cohort of 1,273,114 patients was constructed with the preceding 12-month EMR. Each patient's next 6-month (between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013) health care resource utilization was retrospectively scored ranging from 0 to 100 and a decision tree-based predictive model was developed. Our model was later integrated in the Maine HIE population exploration system to allow a prospective validation analysis of 1,358,153 patients by forecasting their next 6-month risk of resource utilization between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2013. Prospectively predicted risks, on either an individual level or a population (per 1000 patients) level, were consistent with the next 6-month resource utilization distributions and the clinical patterns at the population level. Results demonstrated the strong correlation between its care resource utilization and our risk scores, supporting the effectiveness of our model. With the online population risk monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the predictive algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in the State of Maine. The model and associated online applications were designed for tracking the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for health care resource utilization. It will enable more effective care management strategies driving improved patient outcomes.

Online Prediction of Health Care Utilization in the Next Six Months Based on Electronic Health Record Information: A Cohort and Validation Study

PubMed Central

Hu, Zhongkai; Hao, Shiying; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Young; Zhu, Chunqing; Huang, Min; Wang, Yue; Zheng, Le; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank

2015-01-01

Background The increasing rate of health care expenditures in the United States has placed a significant burden on the nation’s economy. Predicting future health care utilization of patients can provide useful information to better understand and manage overall health care deliveries and clinical resource allocation. Objective This study developed an electronic medical record (EMR)-based online risk model predictive of resource utilization for patients in Maine in the next 6 months across all payers, all diseases, and all demographic groups. Methods In the HealthInfoNet, Maine’s health information exchange (HIE), a retrospective cohort of 1,273,114 patients was constructed with the preceding 12-month EMR. Each patient’s next 6-month (between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013) health care resource utilization was retrospectively scored ranging from 0 to 100 and a decision tree–based predictive model was developed. Our model was later integrated in the Maine HIE population exploration system to allow a prospective validation analysis of 1,358,153 patients by forecasting their next 6-month risk of resource utilization between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2013. Results Prospectively predicted risks, on either an individual level or a population (per 1000 patients) level, were consistent with the next 6-month resource utilization distributions and the clinical patterns at the population level. Results demonstrated the strong correlation between its care resource utilization and our risk scores, supporting the effectiveness of our model. With the online population risk monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the predictive algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in the State of Maine. Conclusions The model and associated online applications were designed for tracking the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for health care resource utilization. It will enable more effective care management strategies driving improved patient outcomes. PMID:26395541

Is the risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia declining?

PubMed

Langa, Kenneth M

2015-01-01

The number of older adults with dementia will increase around the world in the decades ahead as populations age. Current estimates suggest that about 4.2 million adults in the US have dementia and that the attributable economic cost of their care is about $200 billion per year. The worldwide dementia prevalence is estimated at 44.3 million people and the total cost at $604 billion per year. It is expected that the worldwide prevalence will triple to 135.5 million by 2050. However, a number of recent population-based studies from countries around the world suggest that the age-specific risk of dementia may be declining, which could help moderate the expected increase in dementia cases that will accompany the growing number of older adults. At least nine recent population-based studies of dementia incidence or prevalence have shown a declining age-specific risk in the US, England, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. A number of factors, especially rising levels of education and more aggressive treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and hypercholesterolemia, may be leading to improving 'brain health' and declining age-specific risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia in countries around the world. Multiple epidemiological studies from around the world suggest an optimistic trend of declining population dementia risk in high-income countries over the past 25 years. Rising levels of education and more widespread and successful treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors may be the driving factors accounting for this decline in dementia risk. Whether this optimistic trend will continue in the face of rising worldwide levels of obesity and diabetes and whether this trend is also occurring in low- and middle-income countries are key unanswered questions which will have enormous implications for the extent of the future worldwide impact of Alzheimer's disease and dementia on patients, families, and societies in the decades ahead.

An individual-based model for population viability analysis of humpback chub in Grand Canyon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pine, William Pine; Healy, Brian; Smith, Emily Omana; Trammell, Melissa; Speas, Dave; Valdez, Rich; Yard, Mike; Walters, Carl; Ahrens, Rob; Vanhaverbeke, Randy; Stone, Dennis; Wilson, Wade

2013-01-01

We developed an individual-based population viability analysis model (females only) for evaluating risk to populations from catastrophic events or conservation and research actions. This model tracks attributes (size, weight, viability, etc.) for individual fish through time and then compiles this information to assess the extinction risk of the population across large numbers of simulation trials. Using a case history for the Little Colorado River population of Humpback Chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon, Arizona, we assessed extinction risk and resiliency to a catastrophic event for this population and then assessed a series of conservation actions related to removing specific numbers of Humpback Chub at different sizes for conservation purposes, such as translocating individuals to establish other spawning populations or hatchery refuge development. Our results suggested that the Little Colorado River population is generally resilient to a single catastrophic event and also to removals of larvae and juveniles for conservation purposes, including translocations to establish new populations. Our results also suggested that translocation success is dependent on similar survival rates in receiving and donor streams and low emigration rates from recipient streams. In addition, translocating either large numbers of larvae or small numbers of large juveniles has generally an equal likelihood of successful population establishment at similar extinction risk levels to the Little Colorado River donor population. Our model created a transparent platform to consider extinction risk to populations from catastrophe or conservation actions and should prove useful to managers assessing these risks for endangered species such as Humpback Chub.

The impact of genetic counseling on knowledge and emotional responses in Spanish population with family history of breast cancer.

PubMed

Cabrera, Esther; Blanco, Ignacio; Yagüe, Carmen; Zabalegui, Adelaida

2010-03-01

To assess a genetic counseling intervention measuring the distress, cancer risk perception, anxiety, worry and level of knowledge in people with familial history of breast cancer. One group pre- and post-test design. A total of 212 individuals completed a baseline questionnaire, 88.6% completed a second questionnaire one month later and 75.4% six months later. Counseling intervention significantly increased the knowledge level of the individuals who received genetic education and significantly decreased the cancer worry levels. Persons with low perception of their cancer risk also had low worry levels. There were no significant changes over time in cancer risk perception or in quality of life. Counseling in a high risk population seems to decrease cancer worry and to increase cancer knowledge thus enabling a counselee to take well-informed decisions. Furthermore, according to our results, such interventions do not increase anxiety and do not modify the quality of life, but do not adjust their cancer risk perception. Providing individuals at increased risk of breast cancer genetic services seem to enhance their understanding of breast cancer without causing adverse psychological effects or changes in their quality of life, and it could improve their preventive behaviours. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, J.M.

1989-01-01

Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

The spectrum of thyroid disease and risk of new onset atrial fibrillation: a large population cohort study

PubMed Central

Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Hansen, Morten Lock; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Madsen, Jesper Clausager; Faber, Jens; Hansen, Peter Riis; Pedersen, Ole Dyg; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar

2012-01-01

Objectives To examine the risk of atrial fibrillation in relation to the whole spectrum of thyroid function in a large cohort of patients. Design Population based cohort study of general practice patients identified by linkage of nationwide registries at the individual level. Setting Primary care patients in the city of Copenhagen. Subjects Registry data for 586 460 adults who had their thyroid function evaluated for the first time by their general practitioner during 2000-10 and who were without previously recorded thyroid disease or atrial fibrillation. Main outcome measure Poisson regression models used to estimate risk of atrial fibrillation by thyroid function. Results Of the 586 460 individuals in the study population (mean (SD) age 50.2 (16.9) years, 39% men), 562 461 (96.0%) were euthyroid, 1670 (0.3%) had overt hypothyroidism, 12 087 (2.0%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, 3966 (0.7%) had overt hyperthyroidism, and 6276 (1.0%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. Compared with the euthyroid individuals, the risk of atrial fibrillation increased with decreasing levels of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) from high normal euthyroidism (incidence rate ratio 1.12 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.21)) to subclinical hyperthyroidism with reduced TSH (1.16 (0.99 to 1.36)) and subclinical hyperthyroidism with supressed TSH (1.41 (1.25 to 1.59)). Both overt and subclinical hypothyroidism were associated with a lower risk of atrial fibrillation. Conclusion The risk of atrial fibrillation was closely associated with thyroid activity, with a low risk in overt hypothyroidism, high risk in hyperthyroidism, and a TSH level dependent association with risk of atrial fibrillation across the spectrum of subclinical thyroid disease. PMID:23186910

The area level association between suicide, deprivation, social fragmentation and population density in the Republic of Ireland: a national study.

PubMed

O'Farrell, I B; Corcoran, P; Perry, I J

2016-06-01

Numerous studies have examined the ecological relationship between suicide and area level determinants such as deprivation and social fragmentation. In Ireland, there is considerable geographic variation in the rates of suicide. However, there is a dearth of Irish studies investigating the geographic variability of suicide. The Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) provided data relating to all deaths by suicide and deaths of undetermined intent that occurred from 2009 to 2011. Negative binomial regression was used to examine the relationship between area level suicide rates and measures of deprivation, social fragmentation and population density that were taken from the 2011 National Census. Overall deprivation had the strongest independent effect on small-area rates of suicide, with the most deprived areas showing the greatest risk of suicide (risk ratio = 2.1; 95 % CI 1.70-2.52). Low population density (rurality) was associated with an increased risk suicide in males across both age groups and among females in the older 40-64-year age group. Conversely, a weak association between high population density (urbanicity) and increased suicide risk was found among females in the 15-39-year age group. Associations with social fragmentation only became apparent in the sub group analysis. Social fragmentation was associated with an elevated risk of suicide in the older 40-64 age group, with this effect being most pronounced among females. The findings of this study demonstrate marked geographical inequalities in the distribution of suicide in Ireland and highlight the importance of targeting suicide prevention resources in the most deprived areas.

Global cardiovascular mortality risk in the adult Polish population: prospective assessment of the cohorts studied in multicentre national WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior studies.

PubMed

Piotrowski, Walerian; Waśkiewicz, Anna; Cicha-Mikołajczyk, Alicja

2016-01-01

To develop a global cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk model for the Polish population and to verify these data in the context of the SCORE risk algorithm. We analysed data obtained in two multicentre national population studies, the WOBASZ study which was conducted in 2003-2005 and included 14,769 subjects aged 20-74 years, and the WOBASZ Senior study which was conducted in 2007 and included 1096 subjects above 74 years of age. All these subjects were followed for survival status until 2012 and the cause of death was determined. The mean duration of follow-up was 8.2 years for WOBASZ study participants and about 5 years for WOBASZ Senior study participants. Overall, 1436 subjects died, including 568 due to CVD. For the purpose of our analysis of overall and CVD mortality, 15 established risk factors were selected. Survival was analysed separately in WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior study participants. Statistical methods included descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional hazard models, and the SCORE risk algorithm. Measure of incompatibility of the SCORE risk model to the Polish population was determined as the difference between mortality rates by the SCORE risk quartiles and the Cox approach. During the 8-year follow-up of the WOBASZ study population, mortality due to CVD was 38% among men and 31% among women. The most common causes of CVD mortality were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 33%) followed by cerebro-vascular disease (17%) in men, and cerebrovascular disease (31%) followed by IHD (23%) in women. We found significant differences between men and women in regard to survival curves for both overall mortality and CVD mortality (p < 0.0001). For overall mortality among men and women, nearly all selected risk factors were shown to be significant in univariate analyses, except for high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level and the total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio in men, and smoking status in women. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors in men included age, glucose level, systolic blood pressure, and smoking status. In women, independent predictors were age, smoking status, and diabetes. During the 5-year follow-up of the WOBASZ Senior study population, mortality due to CVD was 48% among men and 58% among women. The most common cause of CVD mortality in both men and women was IHD (29% and 24%, respectively), followed by cerebrovascular disease (16% and 21%, respectively). We found significant differences between men and women in regard to survival curves for overall mortality (p < 0.0001) but not for CVD mortality (p = 0.0755). Due to the fact that survival curves for CVD mortality did not differ between men and women, we estimated the cut-off age for no survival difference in the WOBASZ study. By selecting the oldest patients and adding them to the WOBASZ Senior cohort, we obtained the cut-off age of 70 years above which the survival curves were not significantly different between men and women. In univariate analyses, independent predictors in men were age and creatinine level. These factors remained significant in multivariate analysis. In women above 74 years of age, independent predictors in univariate analyses included age, HDL-C level, creatinine level, total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio, and smoking status. Age, HDL-C level, creatinine level, and smoking status remained independent predictors of overall mortality in multivariate analysis. For CVD mortality, significant predictors were the same as for overall mortality. In women, significant predictors in uni- and multivariate analyses were age and smoking status. Overall disagreement between CVD mortality rates by the SCORE risk model and the Cox model was 5.7% in men and 2% in women. 1. Long-term follow-up of WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior study participants allowed assessment of the inde-pendent association of the evaluated cardiovascular risk factors with CVD mortality in the Polish population. 2. Validation of the SCORE risk algorithm to estimate individual global CVD risk in the Polish population showed a high predictive value of this algorithm.

Effect of risk ladder format on risk perception in high- and low-numerate individuals.

PubMed

Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael; Visschers, Vivianne

2009-09-01

Utilizing a random sample from the general population (N= 257), we examined the effect of the radon risk ladder on risk perception, as qualified by respondents' numeracy. The radon risk ladder provides comparative risk information about the radon equivalent of smoking risk. We compared a risk ladder providing smoking risk information with a risk ladder not providing this information. A 2 (numeracy; high, low) x 3 (risk level; high, medium, low) x 2 (smoking risk comparison: with/without) between subjects experimental design was used. A significant (p < 0.045) three-way interaction between format, risk level, and numeracy was identified. Participants with low numeracy skills, as well as participants with high numeracy skills, generally distinguished between low, medium, and high risk levels when the risk ladder with comparative smoking risk information was presented. When the risk ladder without the comparative information about the smoking risk was presented, low-numerate individuals differentiated between risk levels to a much lesser extent than high-numerate individuals did. These results provide empirical evidence that the risk ladder can be a useful tool in enabling people to interpret various risk levels. Additionally, these results allow us to conclude that providing comparative information within a risk ladder is particularly helpful to the understanding of different risk levels by people with low numeracy skills.

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

Neighborhood socioeconomic status and the prevalence of stroke and coronary heart disease in rural China: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Tang, Xun; Laskowitz, Daniel T.; He, Liu; Østbye, Truls; Bettger, Janet Prvu; Cao, Yang; Li, Na; Li, Jingrong; Zhang, Zongxin; Liu, Jianjiang; Yu, Liping; Xu, Haitao; Hu, Yonghua; Goldstein, Larry B.

2014-01-01

Background Lower neighborhood-level socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with an increased risk of vascular disease in developed countries. Aims This study aims to identify village- and individual-level determinants of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) in a rural Chinese population. Methods We analyzed data from a population-based survey of 14,424 rural Chinese adults aged over 40-years from 54 villages. Primary outcomes were stroke and CHD prevalence. Village-level SES was determined from the Chinese government's official statistical yearbook. Individual-level characteristics were obtained by in-person interviews. Prevalence rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using generalized linear mixed models with log link function to explore associations of village-level SES and individual social, demographic, and cardiovascular risk factors with stroke or CHD. Variance was expressed using the median rate ratio (MRR) and interval rate ratio (IRR). Results Villages accounted for significant variability in the prevalence of stroke (MRR=1.70; 95% CI:1.42-1.94; P<0.05) and CHD (MRR=1.59; 95% CI:1.35-1.78, P<0.05) with village-level income alone accounted for 10% and 13.5% of between-village variation in stroke and CHD, respectively. High-income villages were at higher risk of both stroke (RR=1.69, 95% CI:1.09∼2.62) and CHD (RR=1.63, 95% CI:1.13∼2.34) than lower-income villages. Among individual-level risk factors, hypertension was associated with a higher prevalence of stroke (RR=2.33, 95% CI:1.93-2.80) than CHD (RR=1.58, 95% CI:1.38-1.82), whereas obesity was only associated with CHD (RR=1.43, 95% CI:1.23-1.66). In addition, there was an interaction between age and income; residents of higher income villages age<60 had a higher prevalence of CHD (RR=1.58, 95% CI:1.15-2.18), but not stroke. Conclusions There were differences in vascular risk across rural villages in China, with higher lifetime stroke and CHD prevalence in higher income villages. For CHD, neighborhood effects were stronger among younger residents of high-income villages. The results may have implications for public health interventions targeting populations at risk. PMID:25088683

Metapopulation extinction risk: dispersal's duplicity.

PubMed

Higgins, Kevin

2009-09-01

Metapopulation extinction risk is the probability that all local populations are simultaneously extinct during a fixed time frame. Dispersal may reduce a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate. By contrast, dispersal may raise a metapopulation's extinction risk by reducing its average population density. Which effect prevails is controlled by habitat fragmentation. Dispersal in mildly fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate without causing any appreciable drop in its average population density. By contrast, dispersal in severely fragmented habitat raises a metapopulation's extinction risk because the rise in its average per-capita growth rate is more than offset by the decline in its average population density. The metapopulation model used here shows several other interesting phenomena. Dispersal in sufficiently fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk to that of a constant environment. Dispersal between habitat fragments reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk insofar as local environments are asynchronous. Grouped dispersal raises the effective habitat fragmentation level. Dispersal search barriers raise metapopulation extinction risk. Nonuniform dispersal may reduce the effective fraction of suitable habitat fragments below the extinction threshold. Nonuniform dispersal may make demographic stochasticity a more potent metapopulation extinction force than environmental stochasticity.

Cardiovascular Risk in Gullah African Americans with High Familial Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Project SuGAR

PubMed Central

Hunt, Kelly J.; Kistner-Griffin, Emily; Spruill, Ida; Teklehaimanot, Abeba A.; Garvey, W. Timothy; Sale, Michèle; Fernandes, Jyotika

2014-01-01

Objectives To determine the prevalence of cardiovascular disease, levels of cardiovascular risk factors, and extent of preventive care in Gullah African Americans with a high familial risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods Between 1995 and 2003, 1321 Gullah African Americans with a high prevalence of diabetes mellitus from the South Carolina Sea Islands consented to and enrolled in the Sea Islands Genetic African American Registry (Project SuGAR). A cross-sectional analysis of cardiometabolic risk, preventive care, and self-reported cardiovascular disease was conducted. Results Cardiometabolic risk factor levels were high and vascular disease was prevalent. Among the subjects with diabetes mellitus, the mean disease duration was 10.5 years; approximately one-third reported reduced vision or blindness; and >80% reported numbness, pain, or burning in their feet. Preventive diabetes care was limited, with <60%, <25%, and <40% seeing an ophthalmologist, podiatrist, and dentist, respectively, within the past year. Only 54.4% of women and 39.3% of men reported daily glucose monitoring. Conclusions As the largest existing study of Gullah individuals, our study offers insight into not only the level of cardiovascular risk in this population but also the pathophysiological mechanisms central to ancestral differences in cardiometabolic risk in the broader African American population. PMID:25279862

Cardiovascular risk in Gullah African Americans with high familial risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: project SuGAR.

PubMed

Hunt, Kelly J; Kistner-Griffin, Emily; Spruill, Ida; Teklehaimanot, Abeba A; Garvey, W Timothy; Sale, Michèle; Fernandes, Jyotika

2014-10-01

To determine the prevalence of cardiovascular disease, levels of cardiovascular risk factors, and extent of preventive care in Gullah African Americans with a high familial risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Between 1995 and 2003, 1321 Gullah African Americans with a high prevalence of diabetes mellitus from the South Carolina Sea Islands consented to and enrolled in the Sea Islands Genetic African American Registry (Project SuGAR). A cross-sectional analysis of cardiometabolic risk, preventive care, and self-reported cardiovascular disease was conducted. Cardiometabolic risk factor levels were high and vascular disease was prevalent. Among the subjects with diabetes mellitus, the mean disease duration was 10.5 years; approximately one-third reported reduced vision or blindness; and >80% reported numbness, pain, or burning in their feet. Preventive diabetes care was limited, with <60%, <25%, and <40% seeing an ophthalmologist, podiatrist, and dentist, respectively, within the past year. Only 54.4% of women and 39.3% of men reported daily glucose monitoring. As the largest existing study of Gullah individuals, our study offers insight into not only the level of cardiovascular risk in this population but also the pathophysiological mechanisms central to ancestral differences in cardiometabolic risk in the broader African American population.

Risk Factors of HIV and Other Sexually Transmitted Infections in China: A Systematic Review of Reviews

PubMed Central

Wong, William Chi Wai

2015-01-01

Background Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) are a global challenge. China, once said to have eradicated STIs, is now facing a rapid rise in the prevalence of HIV/STIs. This review of reviews aims to map HIV/STI risk factors among the Chinese population, with the objective of identifying risk factors to inform the formulation of effective prevention strategies. Methods A systematic search using key terms related to HIV/STIs, risk factors and the Chinese population in both English and Chinese databases (PubMed, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Library; Wanfang data, CNKI, VIP and SINOMED) was conducted, and peer-reviewed systematic reviews on the topic from 1991 to 2014 were selected. Identified risk factors were grouped into different level determinants based on the HIV Social Epidemiology Model, and then evaluated and reported based on the PRISMA checklist. Findings Of the twenty-eight reviews included, the majority were focused on well-established, individual level risk factors within key populations, with some highlighting the complexity of interacting factors (e.g., alcohol use and higher income in male migrants). While twenty-two reviews covered individual factors, only ten mentioned social factors and five had contents on structural factors. There are gaps in the evidence on social and structural level impacts of HIV/STIs, such as on stigma, discrimination, health policy, access to care, and illicit drug control policies. Migration and social expectation appear to pose a significant threat in aggravating the HIV/STI situation in China; for example, incarceration patterns indicated a significant risk of HIV/STIs for female sex workers. Conclusions Since international guidelines recommend an integrated and multi-level approach to HIV/STI prevention, a comprehensive approach targeting interventions at all levels along the continuum of care is needed to effectively curtail HIV/STI transmission in China. More research is needed to better understand the impact of socio-political interventions within a Chinese context. PMID:26468650

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase polymorphisms, serum methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase levels, and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Tong, Na; Fang, Yongjun; Li, Jie; Wang, Meilin; Lu, Qin; Wang, Shizhi; Tian, Yuanyuan; Rong, Liucheng; Sun, Jielin; Xu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Zhengdong

2010-03-01

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR), involved in DNA methylation and nucleotide synthesis, is thought to be associated with a decreased risk of adult and childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Accumulating evidence has indicated that two common genetic variants, C677T and A1298C, are associated with cancer risk. We hypothesized that these two variants were associated with childhood ALL susceptibility and influence serum MTHFR levels. We genotyped these two polymorphisms and detected MTHFR levels in a case-control study of 361 cases and 508 controls. Compared with the 677CC and 677CC/CT genotypes, the 677TT genotype was associated with a statistically significantly decreased risk of childhood ALL (odds ratio = 0.53, 95% confidence interval = 0.32-0.88, and odds ratio = 0.55, 95% confidence interval = 0.35-0.88, respectively). In addition, a pronounced reduced risk of ALL was observed among low-risk ALL and B-phenotype ALL. Moreover, the mean serum MTHFR level was 8.01 ng/mL (+/-4.38) in cases and 9.27 ng/mL (+/-4.80) in controls (P < 0.001). MTHFR levels in subjects with 677TT genotype was significantly higher than those with 677CC genotype (P = 0.010) or 677CT genotype (P = 0.043) in controls. In conclusion, our results provide evidence that the MTHFR polymorphisms might contribute to reduced childhood ALL risk in this population.

Condom use self-efficacy and HIV risk practices among men who use the internet to find male partners for unprotected sex.

PubMed

Klein, Hugh

2014-05-01

This research examines the levels of condom use self-efficacy in a population of men who have sex with men who are at great risk for contracting/transmitting HIV. It focuses on the relationship between condom use self-efficacy and risk involvement, and examines the factors associated with greater/lower levels of condom use self-efficacy. The data come from a national sample of men, randomly chosen, who used any of 16 websites specifically to identify other men with whom they could engage in unprotected sex. Data were collected between January 2008 and May 2009 from 332 men, via telephone interviews. Multivariate analyses and structural equation modeling were used to test a conceptual model based on syndemics theory. Overall levels of condom use self-efficacy were fairly high, and self-efficacy was related inversely to involvement in HIV risk practices. Six factors were found to be indicative of levels of condom use self-efficacy: the number of drug problems experienced, sexual role identity as a "bottom," not caring about the HIV serostatus of potential sex partners, experiencing childhood maltreatment, having confidence in HIV-related information provided in other men's online profiles, and level of HIV knowledge. Condom use self-efficacy plays an integral role in HIV risk practices among high-risk men who have sex with men. This is true despite the fact that, overall, condom use self-efficacy levels were fairly high in this population.

A Social-Ecological Framework of Theory, Assessment, and Prevention of Suicide

PubMed Central

Cramer, Robert J.; Kapusta, Nestor D.

2017-01-01

The juxtaposition of increasing suicide rates with continued calls for suicide prevention efforts begs for new approaches. Grounded in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) framework for tackling health issues, this personal views work integrates relevant suicide risk/protective factor, assessment, and intervention/prevention literatures. Based on these components of suicide risk, we articulate a Social-Ecological Suicide Prevention Model (SESPM) which provides an integration of general and population-specific risk and protective factors. We also use this multi-level perspective to provide a structured approach to understanding current theories and intervention/prevention efforts concerning suicide. Following similar multi-level prevention efforts in interpersonal violence and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) domains, we offer recommendations for social-ecologically informed suicide prevention theory, training, research, assessment, and intervention programming. Although the SESPM calls for further empirical testing, it provides a suitable backdrop for tailoring of current prevention and intervention programs to population-specific needs. Moreover, the multi-level model shows promise to move suicide risk assessment forward (e.g., development of multi-level suicide risk algorithms or structured professional judgments instruments) to overcome current limitations in the field. Finally, we articulate a set of characteristics of social-ecologically based suicide prevention programs. These include the need to address risk and protective factors with the strongest degree of empirical support at each multi-level layer, incorporate a comprehensive program evaluation strategy, and use a variety of prevention techniques across levels of prevention. PMID:29062296

Sea Level Rise Impacts On Infrastructure Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Mccown, A. W.; Backhaus, S.; Urban, N. M.

2015-12-01

Increase of global sea level is one of the potential consequences of climate change and represents a threat for the U.S.A coastal regions, which are highly populated and home of critical infrastructures. The potential danger caused by sea level rise may escalate if sea level rise is coupled with an increase in frequency and intensity of storms that may strike these regions. These coupled threats present a clear risk to population and critical infrastructure and are concerns for Federal, State, and particularly local response and recovery planners. Understanding the effect of sea level rise on the risk to critical infrastructure is crucial for long planning and for mitigating potential damages. In this work we quantify how infrastructure vulnerability to a range of storms changes due to an increase of sea level. Our study focuses on the Norfolk area of the U.S.A. We assess the direct damage of drinking water and wastewater facilities and the power sector caused by a distribution of synthetic hurricanes. In addition, our analysis estimates indirect consequences of these damages on population and economic activities accounting also for interdependencies across infrastructures. While projections unanimously indicate an increase in the rate of sea level rise, the scientific community does not agree on the size of this rate. Our risk assessment accounts for this uncertainty simulating a distribution of sea level rise for a specific climate scenario. Using our impact assessment results and assuming an increase of future hurricanes frequencies and intensities, we also estimate the expected benefits for critical infrastructure.

Separating spatial search and efficiency rates as components of predation risk

PubMed Central

DeCesare, Nicholas J.

2012-01-01

Predation risk is an important driver of ecosystems, and local spatial variation in risk can have population-level consequences by affecting multiple components of the predation process. I use resource selection and proportional hazard time-to-event modelling to assess the spatial drivers of two key components of risk—the search rate (i.e. aggregative response) and predation efficiency rate (i.e. functional response)—imposed by wolves (Canis lupus) in a multi-prey system. In my study area, both components of risk increased according to topographic variation, but anthropogenic features affected only the search rate. Predicted models of the cumulative hazard, or risk of a kill, underlying wolf search paths validated well with broad-scale variation in kill rates, suggesting that spatial hazard models provide a means of scaling up from local heterogeneity in predation risk to population-level dynamics in predator–prey systems. Additionally, I estimated an integrated model of relative spatial predation risk as the product of the search and efficiency rates, combining the distinct contributions of spatial heterogeneity to each component of risk. PMID:22977145

Characterizing Fractures Across the Astronaut Corps: Preliminary Findings from Population-Level Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossi, Meredith M.; Charvat, Jacqueline M.; Sibonga, Jean D.; Sieker, Jeremy

2017-01-01

Despite evidence of bone loss during spaceflight and the implementation of countermeasures to mitigate this loss, the subsequent risk of fracture among astronauts is not known. Multiple factors such as age, sex, fracture history, and others may combine to increase fracture risk. The purpose of this study was to describe fractures among the astronaut population and generate questions for future occupational surveillance studies.

Participatory Risk Mapping of Malaria Vector Exposure in Northern South America using Environmental and Population Data

PubMed Central

Fuller, D.O.; Troyo, A.; Alimi, T.O.; Beier, J.C.

2014-01-01

Malaria elimination remains a major public health challenge in many tropical regions, including large areas of northern South America. In this study, we present a new high spatial resolution (90 × 90 m) risk map for Colombia and surrounding areas based on environmental and human population data. The map was created through a participatory multi-criteria decision analysis in which expert opinion was solicited to determine key environmental and population risk factors, different fuzzy functions to standardize risk factor inputs, and variable factor weights to combine risk factors in a geographic information system. The new risk map was compared to a map of malaria cases in which cases were aggregated to the municipio (municipality) level. The relationship between mean municipio risk scores and total cases by muncípio showed a weak correlation. However, the relationship between pixel-level risk scores and vector occurrence points for two dominant vector species, Anopheles albimanus and An. darlingi, was significantly different (p < 0.05) from a random point distribution, as was a pooled point distribution for these two vector species and An. nuneztovari. Thus, we conclude that the new risk map derived based on expert opinion provides an accurate spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure rather than malaria transmission as shown by the pattern of malaria cases, and therefore it may be used to inform public health authorities as to where vector control measures should be prioritized to limit human-vector contact in future malaria outbreaks. PMID:24976656

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

PubMed Central

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. PMID:27084274

Ethnoracial Variations in Acute PTSD Symptoms Among Hospitalized Survivors of Traumatic Injury

PubMed Central

Stephens, Kari A.; Sue, Stanley; Roy-Byrne, Peter; Unützer, Jürgen; Wang, Jin; Rivara, Frederick P.; Jurkovich, Gregory J.; Zatzick, Douglas F.

2011-01-01

Ethnoracial minority status contributes to an increased risk for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after trauma exposure, beyond other risk factors. A population-based sampling frame was used to examine the associations between ethnoracial groups and early PTSD symptoms while adjusting for relevant clinical and demographic characteristics. Acutely injured trauma center inpatients (N = 623) were screened with the PTSD Checklist. American Indian and African American patients reported the highest levels of posttraumatic stress and preinjury cumulative trauma burden. African American heritage was independently associated with an increased risk of higher acute PTSD symptom levels. Disparities in trauma history, PTSD symptoms, and event related factors emphasize the need for acute care services to incorporate culturally competent approaches for treating these diverse populations. PMID:20564368

Increased stroke risk and lipoprotein(a) in a multiethnic community: the Northern Manhattan Stroke Study.

PubMed

Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Kargman, Douglas E; Lin, I-Feng; Paik, Myunghee C; Sacco, Ralph L; Berglund, Lars

2010-08-01

Elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is associated with ischemic stroke (IS) among Whites, but data is sparse for non-White populations. Using a population-based case-control study design with subjects from the Northern Manhattan Stroke Study, we assessed whether Lp(a) levels were independently associated with IS risk among Whites, Blacks and Hispanics. Lp(a) levels were measured in 317 IS cases (mean age 69 +/- 13 years; 56% women; 16% Whites, 31% Blacks and 52% Hispanics) and 413 community-based controls, matched by age, race/ethnicity and gender. In-person assessments included demographics, socioeconomic status, presence of vascular risk factors and fasting lipid levels. Logistic regression was used to determine the independent association of Lp(a) and IS. Stratified analyses investigated gender and race/ethnic differences. Mean Lp(a) levels were greater among cases than controls (46.3 +/- 41.0 vs. 38.9 +/- 38.2 mg/dl; p < 0.01). After adjusting for stroke risk factors (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, cigarette smoking), lipid levels, and socioeconomic status, Lp(a) levels > or =30 mg/dl were independently associated with an increased stroke risk in the overall cohort (adjusted odds ratio, OR, 1.8, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.20-2.6; p = 0.004). There was a significant linear dose-response relationship between Lp(a) levels and IS risk. The association between IS risk and Lp(a) > or =30 mg/dl was more pronounced among men (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.5; p = 0.02) and among Blacks (adjusted OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.2-6.2; p = 0.02). Elevated Lp(a) levels were significantly and independently associated with increased stroke risk, suggesting that Lp(a) is a risk factor for IS across White, Black and Hispanic race/ethnic groups. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Environmental risk assessment of arsenic and fluoride in the Chaco Province, Argentina: research advances.

PubMed

Buchhamer, Edgar E; Blanes, Patricia S; Osicka, Rosa M; Giménez, M Cecilia

2012-01-01

The arsenic (As) and fluoride (F⁻) concentration in groundwater and potential adverse human health risk was investigated in the Central-West Region of the Chaco Province, northern Argentina. The mean concentration of As in shallow groundwater was 95 μg/L, where 76% of samples exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline value of 10 μg/L, while in deep groundwater it was 90 μg/L, where 63% samples exceeded 10 μg/L. For As health risk assessment, the average daily dose, hazard quotient (HQ), and cancer risk were calculated. The values of HQ were found to be >1 in 77% of samples. This level of contamination is considered to constitute a high chronic risk compared with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidelines. Further, a significant portion of the population has lifetime carcinogenic risk >10⁻⁴ and may suffer from cancer. A positive correlation was observed between As and F⁻ in groundwater. The Código Alimentario Argentino (CAA) suggested a limit of F⁻ in drinking water as low as 0.8 mg/L under tropical environmental conditions; however, in shallow (39%) and deep groundwater (32%), samples exceeded these values. Exposure to F⁻ was calculated and compared with the adequate intake of minimal safe level exposure dose of 0.05 mg/kg/d and it was noted that 42% of population may be at high risk of fluorosis. Chronic exposure to high As and F⁻ levels in this population represents a concern due to possible adverse health effects attributed to these elements.

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Association of Reported Prostate Cancer Risk Alleles With PSA Levels Among Men Without a Diagnosis of Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Wiklund, Fredrik; Zheng, S. Lilly; Sun, Jielin; Adami, Hans-Olov; Lilja, Hans; Hsu, Fang-Chi; Stattin, Pär; Adolfsson, Jan; Cramer, Scott D.; Duggan, David; Carpten, John D.; Chang, Bao-Li; Isaacs, William B.; Grönberg, Henrik; Xu, Jianfeng

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Prostate specific antigen (PSA) is widely used for prostate cancer screening but its levels are influenced by many non cancer-related factors. The goal of the study is to estimate the effect of genetic variants on PSA levels. METHODS We evaluated the association of SNPs that were reported to be associated with prostate cancer risk in recent genome-wide association studies with plasma PSA levels in a Swedish study population, including 1,722 control subjects without a diagnosis of prostate cancer. RESULTS Of the 16 SNPs analyzed in control subjects, significant associations with PSA levels (P≤0.05) were found for six SNPs. These six SNPs had a cumulative effect on PSA levels; the mean PSA levels in men were almost twofold increased across increasing quintile of number of PSA associated alleles, P-trend=3.4×10−14. In this Swedish study population risk allele frequencies were similar among T1c case patients (cancer detected by elevated PSA levels alone) as compared to T2 and above prostate cancer case patients. CONCLUSIONS Results from this study may have two important clinical implications. The cumulative effect of six SNPs on PSA levels suggests genetic-specific PSA cutoff values may be used to improve the discriminatory performance of this test for prostate cancer; and the dual associations of these SNPs with PSA levels and prostate cancer risk raise a concern that some of reported prostate cancer risk-associated SNPs may be confounded by the prevalent use of PSA screening. PMID:19116992

EVALUATION, ASSESSMENT, AND DETERMINATION OF RISK TO HIGH TROPHIC LEVEL PISCIVORES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC: A SPATIAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY OF MERCURY IN VIRGINIA AND NEW ENGLAND BALD EAGLE (HALIAEETUS LEUCOCEPHALUS) POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

I predict that some portion of the Virginia bald eagle population will exhibit levels at or above those considered detrimental to productivity and reproductive success. The analysis of independent variables and their relationship to elevated blood mercury levels will help t...

Predict value of adiponectin for coronary atherosclerosis plaques according to computed tomography angiography in an asymptomatic population.

PubMed

Gan, Lu; Yang, Li; Yan, Guangtao

2018-05-25

The association between serum adiponectin levels and coronary atherosclerosis plaque characteristics in asymptomatic populations is unclear. To examine the predictive value of serum adiponectin levels for coronary high risk plaques as detected by computed tomography angiography (CTA). This was a cross-sectional study. All patients were divided into high risk plaque group and non high risk plaque group. The FRS was calculated for each patient. CTA was performed for each patient. Adiponectin levels were measured by flow fluorescence immunmicrobead assay (FFIA). Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate analysis was used to determine the predictive value of adiponectin for high risk plaques. The high risk plaque group showed lower adiponectin levels than non high risk plaque group (median, 7.27 vs. 8.51 μg/ml, P = 0.003). The multivariate analysis showed that age (OR = 2.62, 95%CI: 1.51-4.56, P = 0.001), hyperlipidemia (OR = 1.89, 95%CI: 1.07-3.36, P = 0.029), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (OR = 0.46, 95%CI: 0.24-0.87, P = 0.02), the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoproteincholesterol (TC/HDL-C) (OR = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.50-0.94, P = 0.02), apolipoprotein B (apoB) (OR = 3.08, 95%CI: 1.50-6.32, P = 0.002), and adiponectin (OR = 0.37, 95%CI: 0.19-0.74, P = 0.005) were independently associated with the presence of high risk plaques. AUC of the multivariate model for high-risk plaques was 0.728 (95%CI: 0.627-0.783). Sensitivity was 74.9%, specificity was 60.2%, the positive predictive value was 65.3%, and the negative predictive value was 70.6%. Decreased adiponectin levels were associated with the presence of high-risk plaques in asymptomatic populations at low to intermediate FRS. Adiponectin can play an important role in plaque screening before coronary CTA. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inverse association between dietary vitamin D and risk of cutaneous melanoma in a northern Italy population

PubMed Central

Vinceti, Marco; Malagoli, Carlotta; Fiorentini, Chiara; Longo, Caterina; Crespi, Catherine M.; Albertini, Giuseppe; Ricci, Cinzia; Lanzoni, Anna; Reggiani, Maurizio; Virgili, Annarosa; Osti, Federica; Lombardi, Mara; Santini, Marcello; Fanti, Pier Alessandro; Dika, Emi; Sieri, Sabina; Krogh, Vittorio; Seidenari, Stefania; Pellacani, Giovanni

2010-01-01

The possibility of an inverse association between vitamin D and risk of cancer and, in particular, of cutaneous malignant melanoma has been suggested, but results of epidemiologic studies are still conflicting. We examined the relation between dietary vitamin D intake and melanoma risk through a population-based case-control study (380 cases, 719 controls) in a northern region of Italy, a country with average vitamin D intake lower than in northern Europe or the US. We assessed average daily intake of vitamin D from foodstuffs using the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. In this population, levels of vitamin D intake were considerably lower than those observed in recent US studies. We found an inverse relation between dietary vitamin D and melanoma risk in the sample as a whole, in both crude and adjusted analyses. In sex and age-specific analyses, this association appeared to be stronger among males and among older subjects. These findings suggest that, at the relatively low levels of intake observed in this sample, an inverse relation between dietary vitamin D and risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma may exist. PMID:21541899

Risk and the physics of clinical prediction.

PubMed

McEvoy, John W; Diamond, George A; Detrano, Robert C; Kaul, Sanjay; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S; Jones, Steven R

2014-04-15

The current paradigm of primary prevention in cardiology uses traditional risk factors to estimate future cardiovascular risk. These risk estimates are based on prediction models derived from prospective cohort studies and are incorporated into guideline-based initiation algorithms for commonly used preventive pharmacologic treatments, such as aspirin and statins. However, risk estimates are more accurate for populations of similar patients than they are for any individual patient. It may be hazardous to presume that the point estimate of risk derived from a population model represents the most accurate estimate for a given patient. In this review, we exploit principles derived from physics as a metaphor for the distinction between predictions regarding populations versus patients. We identify the following: (1) predictions of risk are accurate at the level of populations but do not translate directly to patients, (2) perfect accuracy of individual risk estimation is unobtainable even with the addition of multiple novel risk factors, and (3) direct measurement of subclinical disease (screening) affords far greater certainty regarding the personalized treatment of patients, whereas risk estimates often remain uncertain for patients. In conclusion, shifting our focus from prediction of events to detection of disease could improve personalized decision-making and outcomes. We also discuss innovative future strategies for risk estimation and treatment allocation in preventive cardiology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population.

PubMed Central

Park, A. W.; Wood, J. L. N.; Daly, J. M.; Newton, J. R.; Glass, K.; Henley, W.; Mumford, J. A.; Grenfell, B. T.

2004-01-01

We assess the effects of strain heterology (strains that are immunologically similar but not identical) on equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Using data relating to individual animals, for both homologous and heterologous vaccinees, we estimate distributions for the latent and infectious periods, quantify the risk of becoming infected in terms of the quantity of cross-reactive antibodies to a key surface protein of the virus (haemagglutinin) and estimate the probability of excreting virus (i.e. becoming infectious) given that infection has occurred. The data suggest that the infectious period, the risk of becoming infected (for a given vaccine-induced level of cross-reactive antibodies) and the probability of excreting virus are increased for heterologously vaccinated animals when compared with homologously vaccinated animals. The data are used to parameterize a modified susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered/resistant (SEIR) model, which shows that these relatively small differences combine to have a large effect at the population level, where populations of heterologous vaccinees face a significantly increased risk of an epidemic occurring. PMID:15306299

Displacement, county social cohesion, and depression after a large-scale traumatic event.

PubMed

Lê, Félice; Tracy, Melissa; Norris, Fran H; Galea, Sandro

2013-11-01

Depression is a common and potentially debilitating consequence of traumatic events. Mass traumatic events cause wide-ranging disruptions to community characteristics, influencing the population risk of depression. In the aftermath of such events, population displacement is common. Stressors associated with displacement may increase risk of depression directly. Indirectly, persons who are displaced may experience erosion in social cohesion, further exacerbating their risk for depression. Using data from a population-based cross-sectional survey of adults living in the 23 southernmost counties of Mississippi (N = 708), we modeled the independent and joint relations of displacement and county-level social cohesion with depression 18-24 months after Hurricane Katrina. After adjustment for individual- and county-level socio-demographic characteristics and county-level hurricane exposure, joint exposure to both displacement and low social cohesion was associated with substantially higher log-odds of depression (b = 1.34 [0.86-1.83]). Associations were much weaker for exposure only to low social cohesion (b = 0.28 [-0.35-0.90]) or only to displacement (b = 0.04 [-0.80-0.88]). The associations were robust to additional adjustment for individually perceived social cohesion and social support. Addressing the multiple, simultaneous disruptions that are a hallmark of mass traumatic events is important to identify vulnerable populations and understand the psychological ramifications of these events.

MADD-FOLH1 Polymorphisms and Their Haplotypes with Serum Lipid Levels and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease and Ischemic Stroke in a Chinese Han Population.

PubMed

Wu, Dong-Feng; Yin, Rui-Xing; Cao, Xiao-Li; Huang, Feng; Wu, Jin-Zhen; Chen, Wu-Xian

2016-04-08

This study aimed to detect the association of the MADD-FOLH1 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and their haplotypes with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and ischemic stroke (IS) in a Chinese Han population. Six SNPs of rs7395662, rs326214, rs326217, rs1051006, rs3736101, and rs7120118 were genotyped in 584 CHD and 555 IS patients, and 596 healthy controls. The genotypic and allelic frequencies of the rs7395662 SNP were different between controls and patients, and the genotypes of the rs7395662 SNP were associated with the risk of CHD and IS in different genetic models. Six main haplotypes among the rs1051006, rs326214, rs326217, rs3736101, and rs7120118 SNPs were detected in our study population, the haplotypes of G-G-T-G-C and G-A-T-G-T were associated with an increased risk of CHD and IS, respectively. The subjects with rs7395662GG genotype in controls had higher triglyceride (TG) and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels than the subjects with AA/AG genotypes. Several SNPs interacted with alcohol consumption to influence serum TG (rs326214, rs326217, and rs7120118) and HDL-C (rs7395662) levels. The SNP of rs3736101 interacted with cigarette smoking to modify serum HDL-C levels. The SNP of rs1051006 interacted with body mass index ≥24 kg/m² to modulate serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. The interactions of several haplotypes and alcohol consumption on the risk of CHD and IS were also observed.

Complex association of serum alanine aminotransferase with the risk of future cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Afarideh, Mohsen; Aryan, Zahra; Ghajar, Alireza; Noshad, Sina; Nakhjavani, Manouchehr; Baber, Usman; Mechanick, Jeffrey I; Esteghamati, Alireza

2016-11-01

We aimed to determine the prospective association between baseline serum levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and the incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people with type 2 diabetes. In an open cohort setting, people with type 2 diabetes were followed for their first ever CVD presentation from 1995 to 2015. Statistical methods included Cox regression analysis for reporting of hazard ratios (HRs), artificial neural network modelings, and risk reclassification analyses. We found a nearly constant CVD hazard with baseline serum ALT levels below the 30 IU/L mark, whereas baseline serum ALT levels ≥ 30 IU/L remained an independent predictor of lower CVD rates in patients with type 2 diabetes in the final multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model (HR: 0.204, 95%CI [0.060-0.689], p for trend value = 0.006). Age, male gender and fasting plasma insulin levels independently predicted baseline serum ALT ≥ 30 IU/L among the population cohort. Augmentation of serum ALT into the weighted Framingham risk score resulted in a considerable net reclassification improvement (NRI) of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction in the study population (NRI = 9.05% (8.01%-10.22%), p value < 0.05). Serum ALT could successfully reclassify about 9% of the population with type 2 diabetes across the CHD-affected and CHD-free categories. Overall, our findings demonstrate a complex and nonlinear relationship for the risk of future CVD by baseline serum ALT levels in patients with type 2 diabetes. Further studies are warranted to confirm whether this complex association could be translated into a clearly visible U or J-shaped figure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between carotid intima-media thickness and fasting blood glucose level: A population-based cross-sectional study among low-income adults in rural China.

PubMed

Gao, Liu; Bai, Lingling; Shi, Min; Ni, Jingxian; Lu, Hongyan; Wu, Yanan; Tu, Jun; Ning, Xianjia; Wang, Jinghua; Li, Yukun

2017-11-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is an established predictor of cardiovascular disease and stroke. We aimed to identify the association between CIMT and blood glucose, as well as the risk factors associated with increased CIMT in a low-income Chinese population. Stroke-free and cardiovascular disease-free residents aged ≥45 years were recruited. B-mode ultrasonography was carried out to measure CIMT. There were 2,643 participants (71.0%) in the normal group, 549 (14.7%) in the impaired fasting glucose group and 533 (14.3%) in the diabetes mellitus group. The determinants of increased CIMT were older age; male sex; low education; hypertension; smoking; high levels of systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; and low levels of diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, after adjusting for covariates. Age and hypertension were the common risk factors for increased CIMT in all three groups. Furthermore, male sex, smoking and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level were positively associated with the mean CIMT in the normal group; high triglycerides levels were negatively associated with the mean CIMT in the impaired fasting glucose group; and alcohol consumption was an independent risk factor for mean CIMT in the diabetes mellitus group. Hypertension was the greatest risk factor for increased CIMT. These findings suggest that it is crucial to manage and control traditional risk factors in low-income populations in China in order to decelerate the recent dramatic increase in stroke incidence, and to reduce the burden of stroke. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes Investigation published by Asian Association for the Study of Diabetes (AASD) and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

[Community nursing intervention in population with high-risk coronary heart disease in Hengyang].

PubMed

Huang, Yanjin; Chen, Jia; Zeng, Ying; Liu, Dan; He, Guoping

2014-10-01

To explore the effect of community nursing intervention on awareness regarding primary prevention knowledge, self-management, and risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in Hengyang City, Hunan Province. A total of 120 individuals at high risk of CHD were recruited and divided into a control group and an intervention group. The intervention group was given the health knowledge lecture and individual community nursing intervention. The control group was given the routine management. Before and after the intervention, all of the recruiters were evaluated by the awareness on primary prevention knowledge, self-management and risk factors for CHD. Before the intervention, there was no significant difference in the demographic data, the cognitive levels regarding primary prevention knowledge, the self-management and the risk factors for CHD between the 2 groups (P>0.05). After the intervention, the cognitive levels regarding primary prevention knowledge, the self-management and the risk factors for CHD between the 2 groups changed. In the intervention group, the cognitive level was significantly increased (P<0.05); the self management score was improved; the systolic blood pressure, BMI, and the levels of fasting glucose, TC and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol were significantly decreased and the level of high density lipoprotein-cholesterol was significantly increased (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the above-mentioned parameters between before and after intervention in the control group (P>0.05). The cognitive levels regarding primary prevention knowledge and self-management for CHD can be improved effectively by community nursing intervention in high-risk population of CHD, and the risk factors for CHD can also be reduced.

Mexico's Seguro Popular Appears To Have Helped Reduce The Risk Of Preterm Delivery Among Women With Low Education.

PubMed

Strouse, Carly; Perez-Cuevas, Ricardo; Lahiff, Maureen; Walsh, Julia; Guendelman, Sylvia

2016-01-01

Beginning in 2001 Mexico established Seguro Popular, a health insurance scheme aimed at providing coverage to its large population of uninsured people. While recent studies have evaluated the health benefits of Seguro Popular, evidence on perinatal health outcomes is lacking. We conducted a population-based study using Mexican birth certificate data for 2010 to assess the relationship between enrollment in Seguro Popular and preterm delivery among first-time mothers with singleton births in Mexico. Seguro Popular enrollees with no formal education had a far greater reduction in risk of preterm delivery, while enrollees with any formal education experienced only slight reduction in risk, after maternal age, marital status, education level, mode of delivery, and trimester in which prenatal care was initiated were controlled for. Seguro Popular appears to facilitate access to health services among mothers with low levels of education, reducing their risk for preterm delivery. Providing broad-scale health insurance coverage may help improve perinatal health outcomes in this vulnerable population. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Changing guards: time to move beyond body mass index for population monitoring of excess adiposity.

PubMed

Tanamas, S K; Lean, M E J; Combet, E; Vlassopoulos, A; Zimmet, P Z; Peeters, A

2016-07-01

With the obesity epidemic, and the effects of aging populations, human phenotypes have changed over two generations, possibly more dramatically than in other species previously. As obesity is an important and growing hazard for population health, we recommend a systematic evaluation of the optimal measure(s) for population-level excess body fat. Ideal measure(s) for monitoring body composition and obesity should be simple, as accurate and sensitive as possible, and provide good categorization of related health risks. Combinations of anthropometric markers or predictive equations may facilitate better use of anthropometric data than single measures to estimate body composition for populations. Here, we provide new evidence that increasing proportions of aging populations are at high health-risk according to waist circumference, but not body mass index (BMI), so continued use of BMI as the principal population-level measure substantially underestimates the health-burden from excess adiposity. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Physicians. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Application of Biochemical Markers for Population Level Assessment of a White Sucker (Catostomus commersoni) Population Exposed to Bleached Kraft Pulp Mill Effluent

EPA Science Inventory

A need in ecological risk assessment is an approach that can be used to link chemically-induced alterations in molecular and biochemical endpoints to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. A predictive population model was developed to translate changes in fecundit...

Indicator 1.08. Population levels of selected representative forest-associated species to describe genetic diversity

Treesearch

C. H. Sieg; S. M. Owen; C. H. Flather

2011-01-01

This indicator uses population trends of selected bird and tree species as a surrogate measure of genetic diversity. Population decreases, especially associated with small populations, can lead to decreases in genetic diversity, and contribute to increased risk of extinction. Many forest-associated species rely on some particular forest structure, vegetation...

Prevalence of coronary artery disease risk factors in Iran: a population based survey

PubMed Central

Hatmi, ZN; Tahvildari, S; Gafarzadeh Motlag, A; Sabouri Kashani, A

2007-01-01

Background Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability with high health care cost in Iran. It accounts for nearly 50 percent of all deaths per year. Yet little is known about CAD and CAD risk factors in the Iranian population. We aimed to assess the prevalence of different CAD risk factors in an Iranian population. Methods A descriptive cross sectional survey was conducted involving 3000 healthy adults at 18 years of age or above who were recruited with cluster random sampling. Demographic data and risk factors were determined by taking history, physical examination and laboratory tests. Results The average age was 36.23 ± 15.26. There was 1381 female (46%) and 1619 male (54%) out of which 6.3% were diabetic, 21.6% were smoker, and 15% had positive familial heart disease history. 61% had total cholesterol level > 200 mg/dL, 32% triglyceride > 200 mg/dl, 47.5% LDL-c > 130 mg/dl, 5.4% HDL-c < 35 mg/dl, 13.7% systolic blood pressure > 140 mmHg, 9.1% diastolic blood pressure > 90 mmHg and 87% of them were physically inactive. Conclusion Clinical and Para-clinical data indicated that Iranian adult population are of a high level of CAD risk factors, which may require urgent decision making to address national control measures regarding CAD. PMID:17971195

[Impact of high salt consumption of blood pressure on a non-hypertensive population].

PubMed

Domínguez Cancino, Karen; Paredes Escobar, María Cristina

2017-12-01

Background There is conflicting evidence regarding the role of salt intake in blood pressure (BP). Aim To estimate the impact of salt consumption on the BP level of a non-hypertensive population aged between 15 and 64 years. Material and Methods Analytical-observational study using data from the National Health Survey 2009-2010. A BP cut-off point at 120/80 mmHg BP was considered to determine risk. Salt consumption was divided into four strata. The prevalence ratios (PR) were determined using the Poisson model with robust variance. The formulas of the studies of Dal Grande and Walter for the estimation of population attributable fraction (PAF) were used. Results The sample was constituted by 1,263 individuals and 24.3% had BP at risk. A statistically significant association was observed between high salt intake and risk BP with PR of 1.91 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.44-2.57) in the consumption stratum of 11 g / day and more. It was estimated that 4.7% (95% CI 4.2-5.2) of BP risk can be attributed to salt consumption, when controlling by age group, sex and educational level. Conclusions The 4.7% PAF is lower than the figure of 30% reported abroad. Interventions to reduce salt consumption in the entire population and the identification of risk groups are recommended.

Prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms and their relationship with other coronary artery disease risk factors: A population-based study on 5900 residents in Southeast Iran.

PubMed

Najafipour, Hamid; Banivaheb, Ghodsiyeh; Sabahi, Abdolreza; Naderi, Nasrollah; Nasirian, Maryam; Mirzazadeh, Ali

2016-04-01

Anxiety and depression are reported as the most prevalent psychiatric disorders worldwide. Here, we studied the prevalence of such disorders with co-morbidities of coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors in an urban population in Iran. 5900 people were selected from 15 to 75-years-olds through single-stage cluster sampling. In addition to examining them for CAD risk factors, Beck anxiety and depression inventories were used to measure anxiety and depression symptoms. The standardized population prevalence of such disorders is reported and the predictors of having anxiety or depression were assessed using Poisson regression model. Overall 25.4% had moderate and 22.7% had severe anxiety. Severe anxiety significantly and constantly increased by age groups (p=0.01). The risk for anxiety was higher among females (Adjusted Risk Ratio, ARR 1.2), and those who were student/soldier (ARR 1.07). Those with high level of physical activity were at lower risk for anxiety (ARR 0.92). The risk of depression (any level) was higher among females (ARR 1.3), those holding high-school level of education (ARR 1.41), and those who used opium either occasionally (ARR 1.17) or frequently (ARR 1.3). Both anxiety and depression were significantly associated with two main CAD risk factors, low physical activity and opium use. We found that the majority of residents in Kerman, particularly women, are suffering from mild to server depression and anxiety symptoms. Public health interventions to increase public awareness on such symptoms, screening and delivery of prevention and treatment services are required to prevent from the growing burden of such disorders and cardiovascular diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Research into Evaluation of Basketball Athletes' Risk Perception Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karatas, Ozgur

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to compare the risk perception levels of Basketball athletes in Turkish League teams according to some variables. In this research the "general screening model," which is one of the descriptive screening methods, was used. While the population of the study consists of athletes actively engaged in the Turkish…

A Proposed Approach for Screening Level Assessment of Risk to Songbird Populations from Pesticide Application in Cotton Fields

EPA Science Inventory

Due to complex population dynamics and migration behaviors, the well-being of animal populations that host human diseases sometimes varies across landscapes in ways that cannot be deduced from geographic abundance patterns alone. In such cases, efficient management of ecologica...

Traffic, Air Pollution, Minority and Socio-Economic Status: Addressing Inequities in Exposure and Risk

PubMed Central

Pratt, Gregory C.; Vadali, Monika L.; Kvale, Dorian L.; Ellickson, Kristie M.

2015-01-01

Higher levels of nearby traffic increase exposure to air pollution and adversely affect health outcomes. Populations with lower socio-economic status (SES) are particularly vulnerable to stressors like air pollution. We investigated cumulative exposures and risks from traffic and from MNRiskS-modeled air pollution in multiple source categories across demographic groups. Exposures and risks, especially from on-road sources, were higher than the mean for minorities and low SES populations and lower than the mean for white and high SES populations. Owning multiple vehicles and driving alone were linked to lower household exposures and risks. Those not owning a vehicle and walking or using transit had higher household exposures and risks. These results confirm for our study location that populations on the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum and minorities are disproportionately exposed to traffic and air pollution and at higher risk for adverse health outcomes. A major source of disparities appears to be the transportation infrastructure. Those outside the urban core had lower risks but drove more, while those living nearer the urban core tended to drive less but had higher exposures and risks from on-road sources. We suggest policy considerations for addressing these inequities. PMID:25996888

Non-linear education gradient across the nutrition transition: mothers’ overweight and the population education transition

PubMed Central

Salinas, Daniel; Baker, David P

2015-01-01

Objective Previous studies found that developed and developing countries present opposite education-overweight gradients but have not considered the dynamics at different levels of national development. A U-inverted curve is hypothesized to best describe the education-overweight association. It is also hypothesized that as the nutrition transition unfolds within nations the shape of education-overweight curve change. Design Multi-level logistic regression estimates the moderating effect of the nutrition transition at the population level on education-overweight gradient. At the individual level, a non-linear estimate of the education association assesses the optimal functional form of the association across the nutrition transition. Setting Twenty-two administrations of the Demographic and Health Survey, collected at different time points across the nutrition transition in nine Latin American/Caribbean countries. Subjects Mothers of reproductive age (15–49) in each administration (n 143,258). Results In the pooled sample, a non-linear education gradient on mothers‘ overweight is found; each additional year of schooling increases the probability of being overweight up to the end of primary schooling, after which each additional year of schooling decreases the probability of overweight. Also, as access to diets of high animal fats and sweeteners increases over time, the curve‘s critical point moves to lower education levels, the detrimental positive effect of education diminishes, and both occur as the overall risk of overweight increases with greater access to harmful diets. Conclusions Both hypotheses are supported. As the nutrition transition progresses, the education-overweight curve steadily shifts to a negative linear association with higher average risk of overweight; and education, at increasingly lower levels, acts as a “social vaccine” against increasing risk of overweight. These empirical patterns fit the general “population education transition” (PET) curve hypothesis about how education influences on health risks are contextualized across population transitions. PMID:26054756

Cardiometabolic Risk Clustering in Spinal Cord Injury: Results of Exploratory Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background: Evidence suggests an elevated prevalence of cardiometabolic risks among persons with spinal cord injury (SCI); however, the unique clustering of risk factors in this population has not been fully explored. Objective: The purpose of this study was to describe unique clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors differentiated by level of injury. Methods: One hundred twenty-one subjects (mean 37 ± 12 years; range, 18–73) with chronic C5 to T12 motor complete SCI were studied. Assessments included medical histories, anthropometrics and blood pressure, and fasting serum lipids, glucose, insulin, and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Results: The most common cardiometabolic risk factors were overweight/obesity, high levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C), and low levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL-C). Risk clustering was found in 76.9% of the population. Exploratory principal component factor analysis using varimax rotation revealed a 3–factor model in persons with paraplegia (65.4% variance) and a 4–factor solution in persons with tetraplegia (73.3% variance). The differences between groups were emphasized by the varied composition of the extracted factors: Lipid Profile A (total cholesterol [TC] and LDL-C), Body Mass-Hypertension Profile (body mass index [BMI], systolic blood pressure [SBP], and fasting insulin [FI]); Glycemic Profile (fasting glucose and HbA1c), and Lipid Profile B (TG and HDL-C). BMI and SBP formed a separate factor only in persons with tetraplegia. Conclusions: Although the majority of the population with SCI has risk clustering, the composition of the risk clusters may be dependent on level of injury, based on a factor analysis group comparison. This is clinically plausible and relevant as tetraplegics tend to be hypo- to normotensive and more sedentary, resulting in lower HDL-C and a greater propensity toward impaired carbohydrate metabolism. PMID:23960702

How can inequalities in mortality be reduced? A quantitative analysis of 6 risk factors in 21 European populations.

PubMed

Eikemo, Terje A; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Kulik, Margarete C; Kulhánová, Ivana; Toch-Marquardt, Marlen; Menvielle, Gwenn; Looman, Caspar; Jasilionis, Domantas; Martikainen, Pekka; Lundberg, Olle; Mackenbach, Johan P

2014-01-01

Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are one of the greatest challenges for health policy in all European countries, but the potential for reducing these inequalities is unclear. We therefore quantified the impact of equalizing the distribution of six risk factors for mortality: smoking, overweight, lack of physical exercise, lack of social participation, low income, and economic inactivity. We collected and harmonized data on mortality and risk factors by educational level for 21 European populations in the early 2000s. The impact of the risk factors on mortality in each educational group was determined using Population Attributable Fractions. We estimated the impact on inequalities in mortality of two scenarios: a theoretical upward levelling scenario in which inequalities in the risk factor were completely eliminated, and a more realistic best practice scenario, in which inequalities in the risk factor were reduced to those seen in the country with the smallest inequalities for that risk factor. In general, upward levelling of inequalities in smoking, low income and economic inactivity hold the greatest potential for reducing inequalities in mortality. While the importance of low income is similar across Europe, smoking is more important in the North and East, and overweight in the South. On the basis of best practice scenarios the potential for reducing inequalities in mortality is often smaller, but still substantial in many countries for smoking and physical inactivity. Theoretically, there is a great potential for reducing inequalities in mortality in most European countries, for example by equity-oriented tobacco control policies, income redistribution and employment policies. Although it is necessary to achieve substantial degrees of upward levelling to make a notable difference for inequalities in mortality, the existence of best practice countries with more favourable distributions for some of these risk factors suggests that this is feasible.

How Can Inequalities in Mortality Be Reduced? A Quantitative Analysis of 6 Risk Factors in 21 European Populations

PubMed Central

Eikemo, Terje A.; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Kulik, Margarete C.; Kulhánová, Ivana; Toch-Marquardt, Marlen; Menvielle, Gwenn; Looman, Caspar; Jasilionis, Domantas; Martikainen, Pekka; Lundberg, Olle; Mackenbach, Johan P.

2014-01-01

Background Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are one of the greatest challenges for health policy in all European countries, but the potential for reducing these inequalities is unclear. We therefore quantified the impact of equalizing the distribution of six risk factors for mortality: smoking, overweight, lack of physical exercise, lack of social participation, low income, and economic inactivity. Methods We collected and harmonized data on mortality and risk factors by educational level for 21 European populations in the early 2000s. The impact of the risk factors on mortality in each educational group was determined using Population Attributable Fractions. We estimated the impact on inequalities in mortality of two scenarios: a theoretical upward levelling scenario in which inequalities in the risk factor were completely eliminated, and a more realistic best practice scenario, in which inequalities in the risk factor were reduced to those seen in the country with the smallest inequalities for that risk factor. Findings In general, upward levelling of inequalities in smoking, low income and economic inactivity hold the greatest potential for reducing inequalities in mortality. While the importance of low income is similar across Europe, smoking is more important in the North and East, and overweight in the South. On the basis of best practice scenarios the potential for reducing inequalities in mortality is often smaller, but still substantial in many countries for smoking and physical inactivity. Interpretation Theoretically, there is a great potential for reducing inequalities in mortality in most European countries, for example by equity-oriented tobacco control policies, income redistribution and employment policies. Although it is necessary to achieve substantial degrees of upward levelling to make a notable difference for inequalities in mortality, the existence of best practice countries with more favourable distributions for some of these risk factors suggests that this is feasible. PMID:25369287

Spatial point analysis based on dengue surveys at household level in central Brazil

PubMed Central

Siqueira-Junior, João B; Maciel, Ivan J; Barcellos, Christovam; Souza, Wayner V; Carvalho, Marilia S; Nascimento, Nazareth E; Oliveira, Renato M; Morais-Neto, Otaliba; Martelli, Celina MT

2008-01-01

Background Dengue virus (DENV) affects nonimunne human populations in tropical and subtropical regions. In the Americas, dengue has drastically increased in the last two decades and Brazil is considered one of the most affected countries. The high frequency of asymptomatic infection makes difficult to estimate prevalence of infection using registered cases and to locate high risk intra-urban area at population level. The goal of this spatial point analysis was to identify potential high-risk intra-urban areas of dengue, using data collected at household level from surveys. Methods Two household surveys took place in the city of Goiania (~1.1 million population), Central Brazil in the year 2001 and 2002. First survey screened 1,586 asymptomatic individuals older than 5 years of age. Second survey 2,906 asymptomatic volunteers, same age-groups, were selected by multistage sampling (census tracts; blocks; households) using available digital maps. Sera from participants were tested by dengue virus-specific IgM/IgG by EIA. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to detect the spatial varying risk over the region. Initially without any fixed covariates, to depict the overall risk map, followed by a model including the main covariates and the year, where the resulting maps show the risk associated with living place, controlled for the individual risk factors. This method has the advantage to generate smoothed risk factors maps, adjusted by socio-demographic covariates. Results The prevalence of antibody against dengue infection was 37.3% (95%CI [35.5–39.1]) in the year 2002; 7.8% increase in one-year interval. The spatial variation in risk of dengue infection significantly changed when comparing 2001 with 2002, (ORadjusted = 1.35; p < 0.001), while controlling for potential confounders using GAM model. Also increasing age and low education levels were associated with dengue infection. Conclusion This study showed spatial heterogeneity in the risk areas of dengue when using a spatial multivariate approach in a short time interval. Data from household surveys pointed out that low prevalence areas in 2001 surveys shifted to high-risk area in consecutive year. This mapping of dengue risks should give insights for control interventions in urban areas. PMID:18937868

Educational status and cardiovascular risk profile in Indians

PubMed Central

Reddy, K. Srinath; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Thankappan, K. R.; Joshi, Prashant; Chaturvedi, Vivek; Ramakrishnan, Lakshmy; Ahmed, Farooque

2007-01-01

The inverse graded relationship of education and risk factors of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been reported from Western populations. To examine whether risk factors of CHD are predicted by level of education and influenced by the level of urbanization in Indian industrial populations, a cross-sectional survey (n = 19,973; response rate, 87.6%) was carried out among employees and their family members in 10 medium-to-large industries in highly urban, urban, and periurban regions of India. Information on behavioral, clinical, and biochemical risk factors of CHD was obtained through standardized instruments, and educational status was assessed in terms of the highest educational level attained. Data from 19,969 individuals were used for analysis. Tobacco use and hypertension were significantly more prevalent in the low- (56.6% and 33.8%, respectively) compared with the high-education group (12.5% and 22.7%, respectively; P < 0.001). However, dyslipidemia prevalence was significantly higher in the high-education group (27.1% as compared with 16.9% in the lowest-education group; P < 0.01). When stratified by the level of urbanization, industrial populations located in highly urbanized centers were observed to have an inverse graded relationship (i.e., higher-education groups had lower prevalence) for tobacco use, hypertension, diabetes, and overweight, whereas in less-urbanized locations, we found such a relationship only for tobacco use and hypertension. This study indicates the growing vulnerability of lower socioeconomic groups to CHD. Preventive strategies to reduce major CHD risk factors should focus on effectively addressing these social disparities. PMID:17923677

Alarming levels of carboxyhemoglobin in banked blood.

PubMed

Ehlers, Melissa; Labaze, Georges; Hanakova, Marcela; McCloskey, David; Wilner, George

2009-06-01

To determine the level of carboxyhemoglobin found in banked blood in the Albany, NY region. A retrospective descriptive analysis of carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels in a series of packed red blood cell (PRBC) units. The blood bank of a university tertiary care hospital in Albany, NY. All PRBC units considered for possible use in pediatric cardiac surgery were first analyzed for levels of COHb. Only those units with COHb levels of <1.5% were deemed acceptable for use during pediatric cardiac surgery. A sample of blood drawn from the sample side arm of each PRBC unit was analyzed on a Chiron 855 Blood Gas Analyzer (Chiron Inc, Emeryville, CA, now Siemens/Bayer RapidLab 865) to determine the level of COHb. The average COHb level was 0.78% (standard deviation +/- 1.48%), and out of the 468 units tested, 48 (10.3%) had COHb levels of 1.5% or greater. The highest recorded COHb level was 12%. The transfusion of PRBC units may artificially elevate readings of COHb and cause confusion over possible causes. Certain high-risk populations (eg, cyanotic neonates undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass) may be especially at risk. Although levels of COHb in the US blood supply are dropping, institutions may want to consider analyzing COHb levels in their PRBC units before transfusion in these high-risk populations.

Developing a Screening Model to Establish Human Risk from Glacial Meltwater Release of Legacy Organochlorine Pollutants at the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miner, K. R.

2017-12-01

Organochlorine pollutants (OCPs) banned globally by the Stockholm Convention in 2004 are reemerging from melting glaciers in numerous alpine ecosystems. Despite the known OCP influx from glaciers, a study of human risk from uptake of pesticides in glacial meltwater has never been attempted. Our study qualifies human uptake routes and quantifies risk utilizing published meltwater data from the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps in combination with methodology established by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Relatively high concentrations of OCPs in Silvretta glacier meltwater reflect proximity to use near high density populations and provide the best estimate of a 95th percentile human risk scenario. This screening level model assesses direct PCB risk to humans through consumption of fish tissue and meltwater. Our model shows a risk for both cancer and non-cancer disease impacts to children with lifetime exposure to glacial meltwater and an average local fish consumption. For adults with an abbreviated 30 year exposure timeframe, the risk for non-cancer effects is negligible and cancer effects are only barely above screening level. Populations that consume higher quantities of local fish are at greater risk, with additional challenges borne by children. Further direct study into the individual level risk to Swiss residents from glacial meltwater pollution is deemed necessary by our screening study.

Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea.

PubMed

Klein, Emily S; Hill, Simeon L; Hinke, Jefferson T; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M

2018-01-01

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future.

Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea

PubMed Central

Hill, Simeon L.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M.

2018-01-01

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future. PMID:29385153

Awareness of Risk Factors for Breast, Lung and Cervical Cancer in a UK Student Population.

PubMed

Sherman, Susan M; Lane, Emily L

2015-12-01

The objective of this study is to identify levels of risk awareness for breast, lung and cervical cancer, in a UK student population. A sample of male (N=62) and female (N=58) university students, mean age 21.62 years completed a questionnaire identifying which risk factors they knew for each cancer. Analysis of variance was used to compare differences in risk awareness across gender and cancer types. Risk factor awareness was highest for lung cancer (0.78), mid-range for breast cancer (0.61) and lowest for cervical cancer (0.47). Women had greater risk factor awareness (0.67) than males (0.57) across all three cancers. There is also significant belief in mythic risk factors such as stress (from 14 to 40% across the three cancers). Previous research has demonstrated that risk factor awareness increases with educational status, yet even in a university student population, in which the majority of females would have been offered the HPV vaccination, risk factor awareness for cancers is variable. More health education is needed particularly around the risk factors for cervical cancer.

Olive oil has a beneficial effect on impaired glucose regulation and other cardiometabolic risk factors. Di@bet.es study.

PubMed

Soriguer, F; Rojo-Martínez, G; Goday, A; Bosch-Comas, A; Bordiú, E; Caballero-Díaz, F; Calle-Pascual, A; Carmena, R; Casamitjana, R; Castaño, L; Castell, C; Catalá, M; Delgado, E; Franch, J; Gaztambide, S; Girbés, J; Gomis, R; Gutiérrez, G; López-Alba, A; Teresa Martínez-Larrad, M; Menéndez, E; Mora-Peces, I; Ortega, E; Pascual-Manich, G; Serrano-Rios, M; Urrutia, I; Valdés, S; Antonio Vázquez, J; Vendrell, J

2013-09-01

Despite the marked increase in cardiovascular risk factors in Spain in recent years, the prevalence and incidence of cardiovascular diseases have not risen as expected. Our objective is to examine the association between consumption of olive oil and the presence of cardiometabolic risk factors in the context of a large study representative of the Spanish population. A population-based, cross-sectional, cluster sampling study was conducted. The target population was the whole Spanish population. A total of 4572 individuals aged ≥ 18 years in 100 clusters (health centers) were randomly selected with a probability proportional to population size. The main outcome measures were clinical and demographic structured survey, lifestyle survey, physical examination (weight, height, body mass index, waist, hip and blood pressure) and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) (75 g). Around 90% of the Spanish population use olive oil, at least for dressing, and slightly fewer for cooking or frying. The preference for olive oil is related to age, educational level, alcohol intake, body mass index and serum glucose, insulin and lipids. People who consume olive oil (vs sunflower oil) had a lower risk of obesity (odds ratio (OR)=0.62 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.41-0.93, P=0.02)), impaired glucose regulation (OR=0.49 (95% CI=0.28-0.86, P=0.04)), hypertriglyceridemia (OR=0.53 (95% CI=0.33-0.84, P=0.03)) and low HDL cholesterol levels (OR=0.40 (95% CI=0.26-0.59, P=0.0001)). The results show that consumption of olive oil has a beneficial effect on different cardiovascular risk factors, particularly in the presence of obesity, impaired glucose tolerance or a sedentary lifestyle.

Predictability and Risk Factors for Development of New-Onset Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus After Transplant in the Saudi Population.

PubMed

Alshamsi, Shaikha; Basri, Nawal; Flaiw, Ahmed; Ghamdi, Ghormullah; Hejaili, Fayez; Shaheen, Faissal A M; Sheayria, Foud; Jaradat, Maha; Al Sayyari, Abdulla

2016-06-01

The study objective was to investigate the predictability and risk factors for the development of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant in the Saudi population. This was a retrospective observational cohort study in adult kidney transplant recipients who developed new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant. Patients with and without new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant were compared for demographic factors, blood glucose levels at 4-hour intervals for 24 hours after transplant, and serum creatinine levels at 6 and 12 months after transplant. Of 279 patients included in our study, 15.5% developed new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after a mean follow-up of 4.6 ± 2.1 years after transplant. Patients with new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant were significant older (P = .001), had a higher body mass index (P = .001), and had higher fasting blood glucose levels 24 hours after transplant (P = .03). No significant differences were observed regarding sex, transplant type, or serum creatinine levels at 6 and 12 months. Risk factors for new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant are body mass index (P = .001; relative risk of 1.26), fasting blood glucose at 24 hours (P = .001; relative risk of 1.3), age (P = .001; relative risk of 1.44), and family history of diabetes mellitus (P = .001; relative risk of 31.3). Risk factors for developing new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus were age, heavier weight, body mass index, family history of diabetes mellitus, and having higher fasting blood glucose levels 24 hours after transplant, with family history of diabetes mellitus being an especially very high significant risk factor.

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The results will be visualized in a set of national risk profile documents intended to form the basis for conversations with governments on risk reduction and risk financing strategies.

Conservation of genetic uniqueness of populations may increase extinction likelihood of endangered species: the case of Australian mammals.

PubMed

Weeks, Andrew R; Stoklosa, Jakub; Hoffmann, Ary A

2016-01-01

As increasingly fragmented and isolated populations of threatened species become subjected to climate change, invasive species and other stressors, there is an urgent need to consider adaptive potential when making conservation decisions rather than focussing on past processes. In many cases, populations identified as unique and currently managed separately suffer increased risk of extinction through demographic and genetic processes. Other populations currently not at risk are likely to be on a trajectory where declines in population size and fitness soon appear inevitable. Using datasets from natural Australian mammal populations, we show that drift processes are likely to be driving uniqueness in populations of many threatened species as a result of small population size and fragmentation. Conserving and managing such remnant populations separately will therefore often decrease their adaptive potential and increase species extinction risk. These results highlight the need for a paradigm shift in conservation biology practise; strategies need to focus on the preservation of genetic diversity at the species level, rather than population, subspecies or evolutionary significant unit. The introduction of new genetic variants into populations through in situ translocation needs to be considered more broadly in conservation programs as a way of decreasing extinction risk by increasing neutral genetic diversity which may increase the adaptive potential of populations if adaptive variation is also increased.

Cancer incidence in urban, rural, and densely populated districts close to core cities in Bavaria, Germany.

PubMed

Radespiel-Tröger, M; Geiss, K; Twardella, D; Maier, W; Meyer, M

2018-02-01

An ecologic study on the level of districts was performed to evaluate the possible association between district type and risk of cancer in Bavaria, Southern Germany. Cancer incidence data for the years 2003-2012 were obtained from the population-based cancer registry Bavaria according to sex and cancer site. Data on district type, socio-economic area deprivation, particulate matter exposure, tobacco consumption, and alcohol consumption were obtained from publicly available sources. The possible association between district type and cancer risk adjusted for age, socio-economic area deprivation, particulate matter exposure, tobacco consumption, and alcohol consumption was evaluated using multivariable multi-level negative binomial regression. We found a significantly reduced cancer risk in densely populated districts close to core cities and/or rural districts compared to core cities with respect to the cancer sites mouth and pharynx (women only), liver (both sexes), larynx (both sexes), lung (both sexes), melanoma of the skin (both sexes), mesothelioma (men only), connective and soft tissue (both sexes), corpus uteri, other urinary tract (men only), urinary bladder (both sexes), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (both sexes). Our findings require further monitoring. Since the apparently increased cancer risk in core cities may be related to lifestyle factors, preventive measures against lifestyle-related cancer could be specifically targeted at populations in deprived core cities.

Assessment of Inhalation Risk to Public Health in the Southern Ural

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrikh, D. V.; Ivanova, S. V.; Riabchikova, I. A.

2017-11-01

A large number of iron and steel companies in the Southern Ural cause severe air pollution in the towns of Karabash (Chelyabinsk region), Sibay (Republic of Bashkortostan), Gai (Orenburg region). The article aims to assess the inhalation effects of hazardous substances on the Southern Ural population. The analysis focused on cancer and non-cancer risks to public health that arise from the surface air pollution caused by the metallurgical industry emissions. The assessment was carried out on the basis of methodological guidelines R 2.1.10.1920-04 using modern sanitary and hygienic standards. We analysed the level of ambient air pollution in the impact area of the metallurgical industry of Karabash, Sibay and Gai over the past eleven years. We established that the ambient air of all the studied towns contain carcinogenic substances that cause unacceptable cancer risks. Formaldehyde has the main share in this risk. We calculated the hazard quotients HQ for the identified priority pollutants and the total hazard indices HI. It is shown that the non-cancer inhalation risk to the Southern Ural population exceeds the safe level manyfold. Sulfur dioxide has the main share in this risk. The conducted assessment showed that in 2006-2016, there was a continuous inhalation exposure of the population to hazardous substances. Sanitary and technological solutions that will allow a reduction of risk to acceptable values are required.

Estimating risk and rate levels, ratios and differences in case-control studies.

PubMed

King, Gary; Zeng, Langche

2002-05-30

Classic (or 'cumulative') case-control sampling designs do not admit inferences about quantities of interest other than risk ratios, and then only by making the rare events assumption. Probabilities, risk differences and other quantities cannot be computed without knowledge of the population incidence fraction. Similarly, density (or 'risk set') case-control sampling designs do not allow inferences about quantities other than the rate ratio. Rates, rate differences, cumulative rates, risks, and other quantities cannot be estimated unless auxiliary information about the underlying cohort such as the number of controls in each full risk set is available. Most scholars who have considered the issue recommend reporting more than just risk and rate ratios, but auxiliary population information needed to do this is not usually available. We address this problem by developing methods that allow valid inferences about all relevant quantities of interest from either type of case-control study when completely ignorant of or only partially knowledgeable about relevant auxiliary population information.

Screening and risk assessment for coronary artery disease in HIV infection: an unmet need.

PubMed

Nadel, J; Holloway, C J

2017-04-01

HIV infection is now considered a chronic, treatable disease, although treatment is associated with increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). Increased risk of CAD in HIV-infected patients has been associated with the inflammatory sequelae of the infection as well as the greater prevalence of cardiac risk factors in HIV-positive populations and the side effects of life-prolonging antiretroviral therapies. Patients with HIV infection now have a 1.5 to 2-fold greater risk of developing CAD compared with noninfected individuals, raising the independent risk of CAD in HIV infection to levels similar to those in diabetes. Despite this increased risk, screening and other adjuvant assessment tools are lacking. In this paper we explore the current climate of CAD in the contemporary HIV-infected population and look at the tools used in the assessment and management of patients as well as the limitations of these approaches for this at-risk population group. © 2016 British HIV Association.

Modern prescription theory and application: realistic expectations for speech recognition with hearing AIDS.

PubMed

Johnson, Earl E

2013-01-01

A major decision at the time of hearing aid fitting and dispensing is the amount of amplification to provide listeners (both adult and pediatric populations) for the appropriate compensation of sensorineural hearing impairment across a range of frequencies (e.g., 160-10000 Hz) and input levels (e.g., 50-75 dB sound pressure level). This article describes modern prescription theory for hearing aids within the context of a risk versus return trade-off and efficient frontier analyses. The expected return of amplification recommendations (i.e., generic prescriptions such as National Acoustic Laboratories-Non-Linear 2, NAL-NL2, and Desired Sensation Level Multiple Input/Output, DSL m[i/o]) for the Speech Intelligibility Index (SII) and high-frequency audibility were traded against a potential risk (i.e., loudness). The modeled performance of each prescription was compared one with another and with the efficient frontier of normal hearing sensitivity (i.e., a reference point for the most return with the least risk). For the pediatric population, NAL-NL2 was more efficient for SII, while DSL m[i/o] was more efficient for high-frequency audibility. For the adult population, NAL-NL2 was more efficient for SII, while the two prescriptions were similar with regard to high-frequency audibility. In terms of absolute return (i.e., not considering the risk of loudness), however, DSL m[i/o] prescribed more outright high-frequency audibility than NAL-NL2 for either aged population, particularly, as hearing loss increased. Given the principles and demonstrated accuracy of desensitization (reduced utility of audibility with increasing hearing loss) observed at the group level, additional high-frequency audibility beyond that of NAL-NL2 is not expected to make further contributions to speech intelligibility (recognition) for the average listener.

Improving risk models for avian influenza: the role of intensive poultry farming and flooded land during the 2004 Thailand epidemic.

PubMed

Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Robinson, Timothy; Biradar, Chandrashekhar M; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

2012-01-01

Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide intervention.

Improving Risk Models for Avian Influenza: The Role of Intensive Poultry Farming and Flooded Land during the 2004 Thailand Epidemic

PubMed Central

Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Robinson, Timothy; Biradar, Chandrashekhar M.; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

2012-01-01

Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide intervention. PMID:23185352

Is the present cut-point to define type 2 diabetes appropriate in Latin-Americans?

PubMed Central

López-Jaramillo, Patricio; Velandia-Carrillo, Carlos; Gómez-Arbeláez, Diego; Aldana-Campos, Martin

2014-01-01

The diagnosis of diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) is based either on increased plasma glucose or Glycated hemoglobin levels. Since these measures are the only means for diagnosis of DM2, they must be well adapted to each population according to their metabolic characteristics, given that these may vary in each population. The World Health Organization (WHO) determined the cut-points of plasma glucose levels for the diagnosis of DM2 by associating hyperglycemia with the risk of a specific microvascular complication-retinopathy. Cardiovascular diseases are however the principal causes of mortality in patients with DM2 and we reported that in the Colombo-Ecuadorian population impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance are both risk markers for myocardial infarction. We propose that the current cut-points accepted by the WHO need to be revaluated in populations such as Latin America and that there should be lower cut points for glycaemia in this population, to reduce the prevalence of cardiovascular complications associated with DM2. PMID:25512777

Attitude to health risk in the Canadian population: a cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

Bansback, Nick; Harrison, Mark; Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Stiggelbout, Anne; Whitehurst, David G.T.

2016-01-01

Background: Risk is a ubiquitous part of health care. Understanding how people respond to risks is important for predicting how populations make health decisions. Our objective was to seek preliminary descriptive insights into the attitude to health risk in the Canadian population and factors associated with heterogeneity in risk attitude. Methods: We used a large market-research panel to survey (in English and French) a representative sample of the Canadian general population that reflected the age, sex and geography of the population. The survey included the Health-Risk Attitude Scale, which predicts how a person resolves risky health decisions related to treatment, prevention of disease and health-related behaviour. In addition, we assessed participants' numeracy and risk understanding, as well as income band and level of education. We summarized the responses, and we explored the independent associations between demographics, numeracy, risk understanding and risk attitude in multivariable models. Results: Of 6780 respondents, 4949 (73.0%) were averse to health risks; however, but there was considerable heterogeneity in the magnitude of risk aversion. We found significant gradients of risk averse attitudes with increasing age and being female (p < 0.001) using the multivariable model. French-speaking participants appeared to be more risk averse than those who were English-speaking (p < 0.001), as were individuals scoring higher on the Subjective Numeracy Scale (p < 0.001). Interpreation: In general, Canadians were averse to health risks, but we found that a sizeable, identifiable group of risk takers exists. Heterogeneity in preferences for risk can explain variations in health care utilization in the context of patient-centred care. Understanding risk preference heterogeneity can help guide policy and assist in patient-physician decisions. PMID:27398375

The dynamic influence of human resources on evidence-based intervention sustainability and population outcomes: an agent-based modeling approach.

PubMed

McKay, Virginia R; Hoffer, Lee D; Combs, Todd B; Margaret Dolcini, M

2018-06-05

Sustaining evidence-based interventions (EBIs) is an ongoing challenge for dissemination and implementation science in public health and social services. Characterizing the relationship among human resource capacity within an agency and subsequent population outcomes is an important step to improving our understanding of how EBIs are sustained. Although human resource capacity and population outcomes are theoretically related, examining them over time within real-world experiments is difficult. Simulation approaches, especially agent-based models, offer advantages that complement existing methods. We used an agent-based model to examine the relationships among human resources, EBI delivery, and population outcomes by simulating provision of an EBI through a hypothetical agency and its staff. We used data from existing studies examining a widely implemented HIV prevention intervention to inform simulation design, calibration, and validity. Once we developed a baseline model, we used the model as a simulated laboratory by systematically varying three human resource variables: the number of staff positions, the staff turnover rate, and timing in training. We tracked the subsequent influence on EBI delivery and the level of population risk over time to describe the overall and dynamic relationships among these variables. Higher overall levels of human resource capacity at an agency (more positions) led to more extensive EBI delivery over time and lowered population risk earlier in time. In simulations representing the typical human resource investments, substantial influences on population risk were visible after approximately 2 years and peaked around 4 years. Human resources, especially staff positions, have an important impact on EBI sustainability and ultimately population health. A minimum level of human resources based on the context (e.g., size of the initial population and characteristics of the EBI) is likely needed for an EBI to have a meaningful impact on population outcomes. Furthermore, this model demonstrates how ABMs may be leveraged to inform research design and assess the impact of EBI sustainability in practice.

Elevated serum ferritin concentration is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in a Chinese population: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Ling; Li, Yufeng; Zhang, Fang; Zhang, Simin; Zhou, Xianghai; Ji, Linong

2018-05-01

We aimed to evaluate the association between serum ferritin levels and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus risk in a Chinese population. This cohort study assessed 2225 Chinese individuals aged 25-75 years. Diabetes mellitus was diagnosed using the 1999 World Health Organization definition with a median follow-up period of 20 months. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident diabetes when serum ferritin concentrations increased by one standard deviation. During the follow-up period, 112 cases (62 men and 50 women) of type 2 diabetes mellitus were identified. Baseline serum ferritin levels were higher in the diabetes than the non-diabetes group. After adjusting for age, body mass index, waist circumference, mean arterial pressure, fasting plasma glucose, fasting insulin, hemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, alanine transaminase and triglyceride levels, family history of diabetes mellitus, pork meat consumption, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, education, and annual household income, the hazard ratios for incident diabetes corresponding to one standard deviation increase in serum ferritin levels were 1.17 (95% CI 1.03, 1.34), 1.20 (95% CI 1.003, 1.43), and 1.03 (95% CI 0.82, 1.31) for the total population, men, and women, respectively. High serum ferritin levels were associated with a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus independent of traditional risk factors in the total population and men. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Hypercholesterolemia-related cardiovascular risk: a continuum from a notion of normality, intervention threshold and therapeutic objectives].

PubMed

Scheen, A J

1999-01-01

There appears to be a continuum between the cardiovascular risk and the level of blood cholesterol, which hinders the definition of normal values, intervention threshold and therapeutic goals. The more and more convincing evidences provided by the "Evidence-Based Medicine" should be confronted to the pharmaco-economical constraints in order to first focus the essential of the efforts and resources on the target population with the highest risk. Unfortunately, the therapeutic strategy concerns a rather high percentage of the population of industrialized countries.

Effect of long-term exposure to fluoride in drinking water on risks of bone fractures.

PubMed

Li, Y; Liang, C; Slemenda, C W; Ji, R; Sun, S; Cao, J; Emsley, C L; Ma, F; Wu, Y; Ying, P; Zhang, Y; Gao, S; Zhang, W; Katz, B P; Niu, S; Cao, S; Johnston, C C

2001-05-01

Findings on the risk of bone fractures associated with long-term fluoride exposure from drinking water have been contradictory. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of bone fracture, including hip fracture, in six Chinese populations with water fluoride concentrations ranging from 0.25 to 7.97 parts per million (ppm). A total of 8266 male and female subjects > or =50 years of age were enrolled. Parameters evaluated included fluoride exposure, prevalence of bone fractures, demographics, medical history, physical activity, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption. The results confirmed that drinking water was the only major source of fluoride exposure in the study populations. A U-shaped pattern was detected for the relationship between the prevalence of bone fracture and water fluoride level. The prevalence of overall bone fracture was lowest in the population of 1.00-1.06 ppm fluoride in drinking water, which was significantly lower (p < 0.05) than that of the groups exposed to water fluoride levels > or =4.32 and < or =0.34 ppm. The prevalence of hip fractures was highest in the group with the highest water fluoride (4.32-7.97 ppm). The value is significantly higher than the population with 1.00-1.06 ppm water fluoride, which had the lowest prevalence rate. It is concluded that long-term fluoride exposure from drinking water containing > or =4.32 ppm increases the risk of overall fractures as well as hip fractures. Water fluoride levels at 1.00-1.06 ppm decrease the risk of overall fractures relative to negligible fluoride in water; however, there does not appear to be similar protective benefits for the risk of hip fractures.

Cohort Differences in the Availability of Informal Caregivers: Are the Boomers at Risk?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Lindsay H.; Smith, Jacqui; Antonucci, Toni C.; Jackson, James S.

2012-01-01

Purpose of the Study: We compare the close family resources of Baby Boomers (BBs) to previous cohorts of older adults at population level and then examine individual-level cohort comparisons of age-related trajectories of informal care availability from midlife into old age. Design and Methods: Population data from the U.S. Census and from the…

Comparative quantification of health risks: Conceptual framework and methodological issues

PubMed Central

Murray, Christopher JL; Ezzati, Majid; Lopez, Alan D; Rodgers, Anthony; Vander Hoorn, Stephen

2003-01-01

Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability. In this paper, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues for quantifying the population health effects of individual or groups of risk factors in various levels of causality using knowledge from different scientific disciplines. The issues include: comparing the burden of disease due to the observed exposure distribution in a population with the burden from a hypothetical distribution or series of distributions, rather than a single reference level such as non-exposed; considering the multiple stages in the causal network of interactions among risk factor(s) and disease outcome to allow making inferences about some combinations of risk factors for which epidemiological studies have not been conducted, including the joint effects of multiple risk factors; calculating the health loss due to risk factor(s) as a time-indexed "stream" of disease burden due to a time-indexed "stream" of exposure, including consideration of discounting; and the sources of uncertainty. PMID:12780936

The rationale/design of the Guimarães/Vizela study: a multimodal population-based cohort study to determine global cardiovascular risk and disease.

PubMed

Cunha, Pedro Guimarães; Cotter, Jorge; Oliveira, Pedro; Vila, Isabel; Sousa, Nuno

2014-06-01

Cardiovascular disease and dementia are growing medical and social problems in aging societies. Appropriate knowledge of cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline risk factors (RFs) are critical for global CVR health preventive intervention. Many epidemiological studies use case definition based on data collected/measured in a single visit, a fact that can overestimate prevalence rates and distant from clinical practice demanding criteria. Portugal displays an elevated stroke mortality rate. However, population's global CV risk characterization is limited, namely, considering traditional/nontraditional RF and new intermediate phenotypes of CV and renal disease. Association of hemodynamic variables (pulse wave velocity and central blood pressure) with global CVR stratification, cognitive performance, and kidney disease are practically inexistent at a dwelling population level. After reviewing published data, we designed a population-based cohort study to analyze the prevalence of these cardiovascular RFs and intermediate phenotypes, using random sampling of adult dwellers living in 2 adjacent cities. Strict definition of phenotypes was planned: subjects were observed twice, and several hemodynamic and other biological variables measured at least 3 months apart. Three thousand thirty-eight subjects were enrolled, and extensive data collection (including central and peripheral blood pressure, pulse wave velocity), sample processing, and biobank edification were carried out. One thousand forty-seven cognitive evaluations were performed. Seeking for CV risk reclassification, early identification of subjects at risk, and evidence of early vascular aging and cognitive and renal function decline, using the strict daily clinical practice criteria, will lead to better resource allocation in preventive measures at a population level.

Population-Adjusted Street Connectivity, Urbanicity and Risk of Obesity in the U.S

PubMed Central

Wang, Fahui; Wen, Ming; Xu, Yanqing

2013-01-01

Street connectivity, defined as the number of (3-way or more) intersections per area unit, is an important index of built environments as a proxy for walkability in a neighborhood. This paper examines its geographic variations across the rural-urban continuum (urbanicity), major racial-ethnic groups and various poverty levels. The population-adjusted street connectivity index is proposed as a better measure than the regular index for a large area such as county due to likely concentration of population in limited space within the large area. Based on the data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), this paper uses multilevel modeling to analyze its association with physical activity and obesity while controlling for various individual and county-level variables. Analysis of data subsets indicates that the influences of individual and county-level variables on obesity risk vary across areas of different urbanization levels. The positive influence of street connectivity on obesity control is limited to the more but not the mostly urbanized areas. This demonstrates the value of obesogenic environment research in different geographic settings, helps us reconcile and synthesize some seemingly contradictory results reported in different studies, and also promotes that effective policies need to be highly sensitive to the diversity of demographic groups and geographically adaptable. PMID:23667278

Metal exposure and reproductive disorders in indigenous communities living along the Pilcomayo River, Bolivia.

PubMed

Stassen, Marinke J M; Preeker, N Louise; Ragas, Ad M J; van de Ven, Max W P M; Smolders, Alfons J P; Roeleveld, Nel

2012-06-15

The Pilcomayo River is polluted by tailings and effluents from upstream mining activities, which contain high levels of metals. The Weenhayek live along this river and are likely to have elevated exposure. To assess whether the Weenhayek have increased risk of reproductive and developmental disorders related to elevated metal exposure in comparison with a reference population. We assessed reproductive and developmental outcomes, i.e. fertility, fetal loss, congenital anomalies, and walking onset by means of structured interviews. We sampled hair, water and fish to assess the relative exposure of the Weenhayek. Samples were analyzed for Pb and Cd with ICP-MS techniques. The Weenhayek communities studied had a higher prevalence of small families (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.3-6.0) and delayed walking onset (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.4-5.1) than the reference population. Median Pb levels in Weenhayek hair were 2-5 times higher than in the reference population, while Cd levels were not elevated. In water and fish, both Pb and Cd levels were increased in the Weenhayek area. We found indications for increased risks of small families and delayed walking onset among the Weenhayek living along the Pilcomayo River. Lactants form a high risk group for lead exposure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploration into Uric and Cardiovascular Disease: Uric Acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) Project, A Study Protocol for a Retrospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Desideri, Giovambattista; Virdis, Agostino; Casiglia, Edoardo; Borghi, Claudio

2018-06-01

The relevance of cardiovascular role played by levels of serum uric acid is dramatically growing, especially as cardiovascular risk factor potentially able to exert either a direct deleterious impact or a synergic effect with other cardiovascular risk factors. At the present time, it still remains undefined the threshold level of serum uric acid able to contribute to the cardiovascular risk. Indeed, the available epidemiological case studies are not homogeneous, and some preliminary data suggest that the so-called "cardiovascular threshold limit" may substantially differ from that identified as a cut-off able to trigger the acute gout attack. In such scenario, there is the necessity to clarify and quantify this threshold value, to insert it in the stratification of risk algorithm scores and, in turn, to adopt proper prevention and correction strategies. The clarification of the relationship between circulating levels of uric acid and cardio-nephro-metabolic disorders in a broad sample representative of general population is critical to identify the threshold value of serum uric acid better discriminating the increased risk associated with uric acid. The Uric acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) project has been designed to define, as primary objective, the level of uricemia above which the independent risk of cardiovascular disease may increase in a significantly manner in a general Italian population.

Spatial distribution and health risk assessment of toxic metals associated with receptor population density in street dust: a case study of Xiandao District, Changsha, Middle China.

PubMed

Li, Fei; Huang, Jinhui; Zeng, Guangming; Huang, Xiaolong; Liu, Wenchu; Wu, Haipeng; Yuan, Yujie; He, Xiaoxiao; Lai, Mingyong

2015-05-01

Spatial characteristics of the properties (dust organic material and pH), concentrations, and enrichment levels of toxic metals (Ni, Hg, Mn and As) in street dust from Xiandao District (Middle China) were investigated. Method of incorporating receptor population density into noncarcinogenic health risk assessment based on local land use map and geostatistics was developed to identify their priority pollutants/regions of concern. Mean enrichment factors of studied metals decreased in the order of Hg ≈ As > Mn > Ni. For noncarcinogenic effects, the exposure pathway which resulted in the highest levels of exposure risk for children and adults was ingestion except Hg (inhalation of vapors), followed by dermal contact and inhalation. Hazard indexes (HIs) for As, Hg, Mn, and Ni to children and adults revealed the following order: As > Hg > Mn > Ni. Mean HI for As exceeded safe level (1) for children, and the maximum HI (0.99) for Hg was most approached the safe level. Priority regions of concern were indentified in A region at each residential population density and the areas of B at high and moderate residential population density for As and the high residential density area within A region for Hg, respectively. The developed method was proved useful due to its improvement on previous study for making the priority areas of environmental management spatially hierarchical and thus reducing the probability of excessive environmental management.

Ontogenetic and evolutionary effects of predation and competition on nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) body size.

PubMed

Välimäki, Kaisa; Herczeg, Gábor

2012-07-01

1. Individual- and population-level variation in body size and growth often correlates with many fitness traits. Predation and food availability are expected to affect body size and growth as important agents of both natural selection and phenotypic plasticity. How differences in predation and food availability affect body size/growth during ontogeny in populations adapted to different predation and competition regimes is rarely studied. 2. Nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) populations originating from habitats with varying levels of predation and competition are known to be locally adapted to their respective habitats in terms of body size and growth. Here, we studied how different levels of perceived predation risk and competition during ontogeny affect the reaction norms of body size and growth in (i) marine and pond populations adapted to different levels of predation and competition and (ii) different sexes. We reared nine-spined stickleback in a factorial experiment under two levels of perceived predation risk (present/absent) and competition (high/low food supply). 3. We found divergence in the reaction norms at two levels: (i) predation-adapted marine stickleback had stronger reactions to predatory cues than intraspecific competition-adapted pond stickleback, the latter being more sensitive to available food than the marine fish and (ii) females reacting more strongly to the treatments than males. 4. The repeated, habitat-dependent nature of the differences suggests that natural selection is the agent behind the observed patterns. Our results suggest that genetic adaptation to certain environmental factors also involves an increase in the range of expressible phenotypic plasticity. We found support for this phenomenon at two levels: (i) across populations driven by habitat type and (ii) within populations driven by sex. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Criterion 1: Conservation of biological diversity - Indicator 9: Population levels of representative species from diverse habitats monitored across their range

Treesearch

Carolyn Hull Sieg; Curtis H. Flather; Noah Barstatis

2003-01-01

This indicator estimates population trends of selected species as a surrogate measure of genetic diversity. Decreases in genetic diversity as populations decline, particularly if associated with small populations, contribute to increased risk of extinction. This indicator also provides an important measure of general biodiversity, as changes in species abundances are a...

Awareness of HPV and Uptake of Vaccination in a High-Risk Population.

PubMed

Fishman, Jessica; Taylor, Lynne; Frank, Ian

2016-08-01

Immunization against the human papillomavirus (HPV) is effective at preventing HPV-related cancers, but vaccination rates have remained low. Levels of awareness could conceivably influence vaccination rates, but currently the relationship is unknown. This is the first study to test how strongly levels of awareness among parents and adolescents are related to subsequent HPV vaccination among a high-risk population of adolescents. This longitudinal cohort study measured baseline levels of awareness (about HPV, cervical cancer, HPV vaccination, and news or advertisements about HPV vaccination) among parents of adolescents and also a separate sample of adolescents. Participants resided in predominantly low-income, African American neighborhoods of a large American city. During a 12-month follow-up period, the outcome measures were defined as adolescent receipt of any HPV vaccination, as measured by clinic records. Within 1 year, <16% of adolescents received vaccination. The relationship between awareness and subsequent vaccination was either not statistically significant or not meaningful in magnitude, with R(2) = 0.004 to 0.02. The predicted probability of getting vaccination was <0.50 for all awareness levels and prediction accuracy was poor (area under the curve = 0.56-0.64). In this high-risk population, levels of awareness among parents and adolescents were not substantially related to subsequent adolescent HPV vaccination. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

REVIEW OF SIMULATION METHODS FOR SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...

Nitrate in drinking water and colorectal cancer risk: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Schullehner, Jörg; Hansen, Birgitte; Thygesen, Malene; Pedersen, Carsten B; Sigsgaard, Torben

2018-07-01

Nitrate in drinking water may increase risk of colorectal cancer due to endogenous transformation into carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds. Epidemiological studies are few and often challenged by their limited ability of estimating long-term exposure on a detailed individual level. We exploited population-based health register data, linked in time and space with longitudinal drinking water quality data, on an individual level to study the association between long-term drinking water nitrate exposure and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Individual nitrate exposure was calculated for 2.7 million adults based on drinking water quality analyses at public waterworks and private wells between 1978 and 2011. For the main analyses, 1.7 million individuals with highest exposure assessment quality were included. Follow-up started at age 35. We identified 5,944 incident CRC cases during 23 million person-years at risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of nitrate exposure on the risk of CRC, colon and rectal cancer. Persons exposed to the highest level of drinking water nitrate had an HR of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.08-1.25) for CRC compared with persons exposed to the lowest level. We found statistically significant increased risks at drinking water levels above 3.87 mg/L, well below the current drinking water standard of 50 mg/L. Our results add to the existing evidence suggesting increased CRC risk at drinking water nitrate concentrations below the current drinking water standard. A discussion on the adequacy of the drinking water standard in regards to chronic effects is warranted. © 2018 UICC.

The Role of Hedonic Behavior in Reducing Perceived Risk

PubMed Central

Jia, Jayson S.; Jia, Jianmin; Hsee, Christopher K.; Shiv, Baba

2016-01-01

Understanding how human populations naturally respond to and cope with risk is important for fields ranging from psychology to public health. We used geophysical and individual-level mobile-phone data (mobile-apps, telecommunications, and Web usage) of 157,358 victims of the 2013 Ya’an earthquake to diagnose the effects of the disaster and investigate how experiencing real risk (at different levels of intensity) changes behavior. Rather than limiting human activity, higher earthquake intensity resulted in graded increases in usage of communications apps (e.g., social networking, messaging), functional apps (e.g., informational tools), and hedonic apps (e.g., music, videos, games). Combining mobile data with a field survey (N = 2,000) completed 1 week after the earthquake, we use an instrumental-variable approach to show that only increases in hedonic behavior reduced perceived risk. Thus, hedonic behavior could potentially serve as a population-scale coping and recovery strategy that is often missing in risk management and policy considerations. PMID:27881710

The Role of Hedonic Behavior in Reducing Perceived Risk.

PubMed

Jia, Jayson S; Jia, Jianmin; Hsee, Christopher K; Shiv, Baba

2017-01-01

Understanding how human populations naturally respond to and cope with risk is important for fields ranging from psychology to public health. We used geophysical and individual-level mobile-phone data (mobile-apps, telecommunications, and Web usage) of 157,358 victims of the 2013 Ya'an earthquake to diagnose the effects of the disaster and investigate how experiencing real risk (at different levels of intensity) changes behavior. Rather than limiting human activity, higher earthquake intensity resulted in graded increases in usage of communications apps (e.g., social networking, messaging), functional apps (e.g., informational tools), and hedonic apps (e.g., music, videos, games). Combining mobile data with a field survey ( N = 2,000) completed 1 week after the earthquake, we use an instrumental-variable approach to show that only increases in hedonic behavior reduced perceived risk. Thus, hedonic behavior could potentially serve as a population-scale coping and recovery strategy that is often missing in risk management and policy considerations.

Association of neighbourhood unemployment rate with incident Type 2 diabetes mellitus in five German regions.

PubMed

Müller, G; Wellmann, J; Hartwig, S; Greiser, K H; Moebus, S; Jöckel, K-H; Schipf, S; Völzke, H; Maier, W; Meisinger, C; Tamayo, T; Rathmann, W; Berger, K

2015-08-01

To analyse the association of neighbourhood unemployment with incident self-reported physician-diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in a population aged 45-74 years from five German regions. Study participants were linked via their addresses at baseline to particular neighbourhoods. Individual-level data from five population-based studies were pooled and combined with contextual data on neighbourhood unemployment. Type 2 diabetes was assessed according to a self-reported physician diagnosis of diabetes. We estimated proportional hazard models (Weibull distribution) in order to obtain hazard ratios and 95% CIs of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, taking into account interval-censoring and clustering. We included 7250 participants residing in 228 inner city neighbourhoods in five German regions in our analysis. The incidence rate was 12.6 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 11.4-13.8). The risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus was higher in men [hazard ratio 1.79 (95% CI 1.47-2.18)] than in women and higher in people with a low education level [hazard ratio 1.55 (95% CI 1.18-2.02)] than in those with a high education level. Independently of individual-level characteristics, we found a higher risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in neighbourhoods with high levels of unemployment [quintile 5; hazard ratio 1.72 (95% CI 1.23-2.42)] than in neighbourhoods with low unemployment (quintile 1). Low education level and high neighbourhood unemployment were independently associated with an elevated risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus. Studies examining the impact of the residential environment on Type 2 diabetes mellitus will provide knowledge that is essential for the identification of high-risk populations. © 2014 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2014 Diabetes UK.

Serum magnesium and the risk of prediabetes: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Kieboom, Brenda C T; Ligthart, Symen; Dehghan, Abbas; Kurstjens, Steef; de Baaij, Jeroen H F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Zietse, Robert; Stricker, Bruno H; Hoorn, Ewout J

2017-05-01

Previous studies have found an association between serum magnesium and incident diabetes; however, this association may be due to reverse causation, whereby diabetes may induce urinary magnesium loss. In contrast, in prediabetes (defined as impaired fasting glucose), serum glucose levels are below the threshold for urinary magnesium wasting and, hence, unlikely to influence serum magnesium levels. Thus, to study the directionality of the association between serum magnesium levels and diabetes, we investigated its association with prediabetes. We also investigated whether magnesium-regulating genes influence diabetes risk through serum magnesium levels. Additionally, we quantified the effect of insulin resistance in the association between serum magnesium levels and diabetes risk. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used Cox models, adjusted for age, sex, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, kidney function, serum levels of electrolytes and diuretic use, to study the association between serum magnesium and prediabetes/diabetes. In addition, we performed two mediation analyses: (1) to study if common genetic variation in eight magnesium-regulating genes influence diabetes risk through serum magnesium levels; and (2) to quantify the proportion of the effect of serum magnesium levels on diabetes that is mediated through insulin resistance (quantified by HOMA-IR). A total of 8555 participants (mean age, 64.7 years; median follow-up, 5.7 years) with normal glucose levels (mean ± SD: 5.46 ± 0.58 mmol/l) at baseline were included. A 0.1 mmol/l decrease in serum magnesium level was associated with an increase in diabetes risk (HR 1.18 [95% CI 1.04, 1.33]), confirming findings from previous studies. Of interest, a similar association was found between serum magnesium levels and prediabetes risk (HR 1.12 [95% CI 1.01, 1.25]). Genetic variation in CLDN19, CNNM2, FXYD2, SLC41A2, and TRPM6 significantly influenced diabetes risk (p < 0.05), and for CNNM2, FXYD2, SLC41A2 and TRPM6 this risk was completely mediated by serum magnesium levels. We found that 29.1% of the effect of serum magnesium levels on diabetes was mediated through insulin resistance, whereas for prediabetes 13.4% was mediated through insulin resistance. Low serum magnesium levels are associated with an increased risk of prediabetes and this increased risk is similar to that of diabetes. Furthermore, common variants in magnesium-regulating genes modify diabetes risk through serum magnesium levels. Both findings support a potential causal role of magnesium in the development of diabetes, where the hypothesised pathway is partly mediated through insulin resistance.

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

2018-03-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

Comparison between urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and urine protein dipstick testing for prevalence and ability to predict the risk for chronic kidney disease in the general population (Iwate-KENCO study): a prospective community-based cohort study.

PubMed

Koeda, Yorihiko; Tanaka, Fumitaka; Segawa, Toshie; Ohta, Mutsuko; Ohsawa, Masaki; Tanno, Kozo; Makita, Shinji; Ishibashi, Yasuhiro; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Omama, Shin-Ichi; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Okayama, Akira; Nakamura, Motoyuki

2016-05-12

This study compared the combination of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) vs. eGFR and urine protein reagent strip testing to determine chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence, and each method's ability to predict the risk for cardiovascular events in the general Japanese population. Baseline data including eGFR, UACR, and urine dipstick tests were obtained from the general population (n = 22 975). Dipstick test results (negative, trace, positive) were allocated to three levels of UACR (<30, 30-300, >300), respectively. In accordance with Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes CKD prognosis heat mapping, the cohort was classified into four risk grades (green: grade 1; yellow: grade 2; orange: grade 3, red: grade 4) based on baseline eGFR and UACR levels or dipstick tests. During the mean follow-up period of 5.6 years, 708 new onset cardiovascular events were recorded. For CKD identified by eGFR and dipstick testing (dipstick test ≥ trace and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), the incidence of CKD was found to be 9 % in the general population. In comparison to non-CKD (grade 1), although cardiovascular risk was significantly higher in risk grades ≥3 (relative risk (RR) = 1.70; 95 % CI: 1.28-2.26), risk predictive ability was not significant in risk grade 2 (RR = 1.20; 95 % CI: 0.95-1.52). When CKD was defined by eGFR and UACR (UACR ≥30 mg/g Cr and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), prevalence was found to be 29 %. Predictive ability in risk grade 2 (RR = 1.41; 95 % CI: 1.19-1.66) and risk grade ≥3 (RR = 1.76; 95 % CI: 1.37-2.28) were both significantly greater than for non-CKD. Reclassification analysis showed a significant improvement in risk predictive abilities when CKD risk grading was based on UACR rather than on dipstick testing in this population (p < 0.001). Although prevalence of CKD was higher when detected by UACR rather than urine dipstick testing, the predictive ability for cardiovascular events from UACR-based risk grading was superior to that of dipstick-based risk grading in the general population.

Principal Component and Linkage Analysis of Cardiovascular Risk Traits in the Norfolk Isolate

PubMed Central

Cox, Hannah C.; Bellis, Claire; Lea, Rod A.; Quinlan, Sharon; Hughes, Roger; Dyer, Thomas; Charlesworth, Jac; Blangero, John; Griffiths, Lyn R.

2009-01-01

Objective(s) An individual's risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) is influenced by genetic factors. This study focussed on mapping genetic loci for CVD-risk traits in a unique population isolate derived from Norfolk Island. Methods This investigation focussed on 377 individuals descended from the population founders. Principal component analysis was used to extract orthogonal components from 11 cardiovascular risk traits. Multipoint variance component methods were used to assess genome-wide linkage using SOLAR to the derived factors. A total of 285 of the 377 related individuals were informative for linkage analysis. Results A total of 4 principal components accounting for 83% of the total variance were derived. Principal component 1 was loaded with body size indicators; principal component 2 with body size, cholesterol and triglyceride levels; principal component 3 with the blood pressures; and principal component 4 with LDL-cholesterol and total cholesterol levels. Suggestive evidence of linkage for principal component 2 (h2 = 0.35) was observed on chromosome 5q35 (LOD = 1.85; p = 0.0008). While peak regions on chromosome 10p11.2 (LOD = 1.27; p = 0.005) and 12q13 (LOD = 1.63; p = 0.003) were observed to segregate with principal components 1 (h2 = 0.33) and 4 (h2 = 0.42), respectively. Conclusion(s): This study investigated a number of CVD risk traits in a unique isolated population. Findings support the clustering of CVD risk traits and provide interesting evidence of a region on chromosome 5q35 segregating with weight, waist circumference, HDL-c and total triglyceride levels. PMID:19339786

The Effects of Blood Alcohol Levels on Driving Variables in a High-Risk Population: Objective and Subjective Measures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, Daniel J.; And Others

1995-01-01

Assessed high-risk individuals' subjective awareness of legal intoxication and ability to drive, and objectively quantified their blood alcohol levels and driving performance. While subjects were able to recognize legal intoxication, one-third of the subjects were still willing to drive after becoming intoxicated beyond the legal limit to drive.…

Evolutionary Origins of the Differences in Osteoporosis Risk in US Populations.

PubMed

Nelson, Dorothy A

2018-03-23

Over the past 50 years, it has been increasingly evident that there are population differences in bone mass and the risk of osteoporosis. In the United States, many studies have reported a lower prevalence of osteoporosis in African Americans compared with people of European descent. If we trace the trajectory of changes in lifeways from the earliest migrations of early Homo out of Africa over the past two million years or so, to include lower vitamin D levels in higher latitudes; more meat in the diet; increasing sedentism; and a longer lifespan/longer postmenopausal period, it is not surprising that osteoporosis occurs more frequently in populations of European descent. While many scholars have explored the apparent "paradox" of higher bone mass, lower vitamin D levels, and higher parathyroid hormone levels among African Americans, this brief review of evolutionary shifts that affected our species may change the approach to understanding the current population differences in the United States. Copyright © 2018 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Landscape-level analysis of mountain goat population connectivity in Washington and southern British Columbia

Treesearch

Leslie C. Parks; David O. Wallin; Samuel A. Cushman; Brad H. McRae

2015-01-01

Habitat fragmentation and habitat loss diminish population connectivity, reducing genetic diversity and increasing extinction risk over time. Improving connectivity is widely recommended to preserve the long-term viability of populations, but this requires accurate knowledge of how landscapes influence connectivity. Detectability of landscape effects on gene...

Linking Pesticide Application at Local Scales to Population-Level Assessment Endpoints: a Case Study of an Endangered Songbird Population in the Willamette Valley, OR - SETAC 2015

EPA Science Inventory

Threatened and endangered species are increasingly impacted by agricultural pesticides. Interest in developing regulatory approaches that address pesticide impacts on populations is creating a need for risk assessment tools that capture interactions between life histories and sp...

Linking Pesticide Application at Local Scales to Population-Level Assessment Endpoints: a Case Study of an Endangered Songbird Population in the Willamette valley, OR

EPA Science Inventory

Threatened and endangered species are increasingly impacted by agricultural pesticides. Interest in developing regulatory approaches that address pesticide impacts on populations is creating a need for risk assessment tools that capture interactions between life histories and sp...

Lower Risk Cannabis use Guidelines for Canada (LRCUG): a narrative review of evidence and recommendations.

PubMed

Fischer, Benedikt; Jeffries, Victoria; Hall, Wayne; Room, Robin; Goldner, Elliot; Rehm, Jürgen

2011-01-01

More than one in ten adults--and about one in three young adults--report past year cannabis use in Canada. While cannabis use is associated with a variety of health risks, current policy prohibits all use, rather than adopting a public health approach focusing on interventions to address specific risks and harms as do policies for alcohol. The objective of this paper was to develop 'Lower Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines' (LRCUG) based on research evidence on the adverse health effects of cannabis and factors that appear to modify the risk of these harms. Relevant English-language peer-reviewed publications on health harms of cannabis use were reviewed and LRCUG were drafted by the authors on the basis of a consensus process. The review suggested that health harms related to cannabis use increase with intensity of use although the risk curve is not well characterized. These harms are associated with a number of potentially modifiable factors related to: frequency of use; early onset of use; driving after using cannabis; methods and practices of use and substance potency; and characteristics of specific populations. LRCUG recommending ways to reduce risks related to cannabis use on an individual and population level--analogous to 'Low Risk Drinking Guidelines' for alcohol--are presented. Given the prevalence and age distribution of cannabis use in Canada, a public health approach to cannabis use is overdue. LRCUG constitute a potentially valuable tool in facilitating a reduction of health harms from cannabis use on a population level.

The role of perceived air pollution and health risk perception in health symptoms and disease: a population-based study combined with modelled levels of PM10.

PubMed

Orru, Kati; Nordin, Steven; Harzia, Hedi; Orru, Hans

2018-07-01

Adverse health impact of air pollution on health may not only be associated with the level of exposure, but rather mediated by perception of the pollution and by top-down processing (e.g. beliefs of the exposure being hazardous), especially in areas with relatively low levels of pollutants. The aim of this study was to test a model that describes interrelations between air pollution (particles < 10 [Formula: see text]m, PM 10 ), perceived pollution, health risk perception, health symptoms and diseases. A population-based questionnaire study was conducted among 1000 Estonian residents (sample was stratified by age, sex, and geographical location) about health risk perception and coping. The PM 10 levels were modelled in 1 × 1 km grids using a Eulerian air quality dispersion model. Respondents were ascribed their annual mean PM 10 exposure according to their home address. Path analysis was performed to test the validity of the model. The data refute the model proposing that exposure level significantly influences symptoms and disease. Instead, the perceived exposure influences symptoms and the effect of perceived exposure on disease is mediated by health risk perception. This relationship is more pronounced in large cities compared to smaller towns or rural areas. Perceived pollution and health risk perception, in particular in large cities, play important roles in understanding and predicting environmentally induced symptoms and diseases at relatively low levels of air pollution.

Identification of genetic risk factors in the Chinese population implicates a role of immune system in Alzheimer's disease pathogenesis.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaopu; Chen, Yu; Mok, Kin Y; Zhao, Qianhua; Chen, Keliang; Chen, Yuewen; Hardy, John; Li, Yun; Fu, Amy K Y; Guo, Qihao; Ip, Nancy Y

2018-02-20

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a leading cause of mortality among the elderly. We performed a whole-genome sequencing study of AD in the Chinese population. In addition to the variants identified in or around the APOE locus (sentinel variant rs73052335, P = 1.44 × 10 -14 ), two common variants, GCH1 (rs72713460, P = 4.36 × 10 -5 ) and KCNJ15 (rs928771, P = 3.60 × 10 -6 ), were identified and further verified for their possible risk effects for AD in three small non-Asian AD cohorts. Genotype-phenotype analysis showed that KCNJ15 variant rs928771 affects the onset age of AD, with earlier disease onset in minor allele carriers. In addition, altered expression level of the KCNJ15 transcript can be observed in the blood of AD subjects. Moreover, the risk variants of GCH1 and KCNJ15 are associated with changes in their transcript levels in specific tissues, as well as changes of plasma biomarkers levels in AD subjects. Importantly, network analysis of hippocampus and blood transcriptome datasets suggests that the risk variants in the APOE , GCH1 , and KCNJ15 loci might exert their functions through their regulatory effects on immune-related pathways. Taking these data together, we identified common variants of GCH1 and KCNJ15 in the Chinese population that contribute to AD risk. These variants may exert their functional effects through the immune system. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Incorporating ecologically relevant habitat and demographic data in assessment of contaminant risk to wildlife

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluating population-level effects of contamination on wildlife requires specific information on habitat quality, species distribution, and contaminant concentration. Establishing broadly applicable thresholds for risk assessment involves an understanding of the applicability o...

An assessment study of CVD related risk factors in a tribal population of India.

PubMed

Kandpal, Vani; Sachdeva, M P; Saraswathy, K N

2016-05-25

Non communicable diseases (NCDs) have become a major concern for global health. Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) contribute 48 % towards the deaths due to NCDs in India. Though studies have been conducted in urban and rural areas, data related to tribal communities is limited. The present study aims to examine various CVD related risk factors including hypertension, elevated fasting blood glucose, obesity and metabolic syndrome among a tribal population. The present study was an observational, cross- sectional study conducted on Rang Bhotias, a tribal population of India. The participants were adults of age between 20 and 60 years. Prior to blood sample collection, interview schedule was administered which included relevant information like age, lifestyle, socio-economic status, education and occupation In addition to this, various anthropometric and physiological measurements were taken. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of the various health disorders related to CVDs with age, gender and behavioural factors (smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity). A total of 288 participants were surveyed for the study including 104 males and 184 females. High BMI (56.6 %), hypertension (43.4 %), metabolic syndrome (39.2 %) and abdominal obesity (33.7 %) were the most prevalent CVD risk factors observed in the population. The multivariate logistic regression analysis, conducted to examine the contribution of risk factors including behavioural risk factors on the studied abnormalities, revealed age to be a significant risk factor for all the abnormalities except elevated fasting blood glucose. Gender and physical inactivity contributed significantly towards development of hypertension. Physical inactivity was also found to be associated with high BMI levels. In the present study, hypertension, high BMI levels, MS and abdominal obesity have been found to be high among the studied population. The status of the population with respect to these abnormalities implicates susceptibility of the community towards various common disorders. The prevention and treatment intervention programs should be implemented taking into consideration age and gender.

Crime and violence in Brazil: Systematic review of time trends, prevalence rates and risk factors☆

PubMed Central

Murray, Joseph; Cerqueira, Daniel Ricardo de Castro; Kahn, Tulio

2013-01-01

Between 1980 and 2010 there were 1 million homicides in Brazil. Dramatic increases in homicide rates followed rises in inequality, more young men in the population, greater availability of firearms, and increased drug use. Nevertheless, disarmament legislation may have helped reduce homicide rates in recent years. Despite its very high rate of lethal violence, Brazil appears to have similar levels of general criminal victimization as several other Latin American and North American countries. Brazil has lower rates of drug use compared to other countries such as the United States, but the prevalence of youth drug use in Brazil has increased substantially in recent years. Since 1990, the growth of the Brazilian prison population has been enormous, resulting in the fourth largest prison population in the world. Through a systematic review of the literature, we identified 10 studies assessing the prevalence of self-reported offending in Brazil and 9 studies examining risk factors. Levels of self-reported offending seem quite high among school students in Brazil. Individual and family-level risk factors identified in Brazil are very similar to those found in high-income countries. PMID:24027422

Prevalence and Determinants of Suboptimal Vitamin D Levels in a Multiethnic Asian Population.

PubMed

Man, Ryan Eyn Kidd; Li, Ling-Jun; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Wong, Tien Yin; Lamoureux, Ecosse; Sabanayagam, Charumathi

2017-03-22

This population-based cross-sectional study examined the prevalence and risk factors of suboptimal vitamin D levels (assessed using circulating 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25(OH)D)) in a multi-ethnic sample of Asian adults. Plasma 25(OH)D concentration of 1139 Chinese, Malay and Indians (40-80 years) were stratified into normal (≥30 ng/mL), and suboptimal (including insufficiency and deficiency, <30 ng/mL) based on the 2011 Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guidelines. Logistic regression models were used to assess the associations of demographic, lifestyle and clinical risk factors with the outcome. Of the 1139 participants, 25(OH)D concentration was suboptimal in 76.1%. In multivariable models, age ≤65 years (compared to age >65 years), Malay and Indian ethnicities (compared to Chinese ethnicity), and higher body mass index, HbA1c, education and income levels were associated with suboptimal 25(OH)D concentration ( p < 0.05). In a population-based sample of Asian adults, approximately 75% had suboptimal 25(OH)D concentration. Targeted interventions and stricter reinforcements of existing guidelines for vitamin D supplementation are needed for groups at risk of vitamin D insufficiency/deficiency.

Exposure to High Fluoride Drinking Water and Risk of Dental Fluorosis in Estonia

PubMed Central

Indermitte, Ene; Saava, Astrid; Karro, Enn

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess exposure to drinking water fluoride and evaluate the risk of dental fluorosis among the Estonian population. The study covered all 15 counties in Estonia and 93.7% of population that has access to public water supplies. In Estonia groundwater is the main source for public water supply systems in most towns and rural settlements. The content of natural fluoride in water ranges from 0.01 to 7.20 mg/L. The exposure to different fluoride levels was assessed by linking data from previous studies on drinking water quality with databases of the Health Protection Inspectorate on water suppliers and the number of water consumers in water supply systems. Exposure assessment showed that 4% of the study population had excessive exposure to fluoride, mainly in small public water supplies in western and central Estonia, where the Silurian-Ordovician aquifer system is the only source of drinking water. There is a strong correlation between natural fluoride levels and the prevalence of dental fluorosis. Risk of dental fluorosis was calculated to different fluoride exposure levels over 1.5 mg/L. PMID:19440411

Risk factors for cardiovascular disease in subclinical hypothyroidism.

PubMed

Decandia, F

2018-02-01

Subclinical hypothyroidism (SH), defined as an increased serum thyrotropin (TSH) level and normal plasma-free thyroid hormones' concentrations, is common in the general population, in particular, among elderly women. Its prevalence ranges from 4 to 15% and up to 20% among females aged > 60 year. Although SH has been associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), it is acknowledged that the high prevalence of dyslipidemia in elderly people is considered a common biochemical condition. Therefore, whether SH is associated with a higher risk for CVD is still controversial. At the moment, no consensus exists on the clinical significance and treatment of the mild form of thyroid failure, although available data suggest that only patients with plasma TSH levels above 10 mU/L may have an increased risk of CVD. However, treatment of SH in older individual requires special consideration with regard to thyroid hormone replacement therapy and expected clinical outcomes, since the increase of TSH observed in this population may represent a physiological process. It is likely that age affects TSH levels, and some studies suggest that modified reference limits for elderly populations should be considered in the diagnosis of mild thyroid failure.

Prevalence and Determinants of Suboptimal Vitamin D Levels in a Multiethnic Asian Population

PubMed Central

Man, Ryan Eyn Kidd; Li, Ling-Jun; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Wong, Tien Yin; Lamoureux, Ecosse; Sabanayagam, Charumathi

2017-01-01

This population-based cross-sectional study examined the prevalence and risk factors of suboptimal vitamin D levels (assessed using circulating 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25(OH)D)) in a multi-ethnic sample of Asian adults. Plasma 25(OH)D concentration of 1139 Chinese, Malay and Indians (40–80 years) were stratified into normal (≥30 ng/mL), and suboptimal (including insufficiency and deficiency, <30 ng/mL) based on the 2011 Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guidelines. Logistic regression models were used to assess the associations of demographic, lifestyle and clinical risk factors with the outcome. Of the 1139 participants, 25(OH)D concentration was suboptimal in 76.1%. In multivariable models, age ≤65 years (compared to age >65 years), Malay and Indian ethnicities (compared to Chinese ethnicity), and higher body mass index, HbA1c, education and income levels were associated with suboptimal 25(OH)D concentration (p < 0.05). In a population-based sample of Asian adults, approximately 75% had suboptimal 25(OH)D concentration. Targeted interventions and stricter reinforcements of existing guidelines for vitamin D supplementation are needed for groups at risk of vitamin D insufficiency/deficiency. PMID:28327512

The rs2231142 variant of the ABCG2 gene is associated with uric acid levels and gout among Japanese people.

PubMed

Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Tanigawa, Takeshi; Kitamura, Akihiko; Köttgen, Anna; Folsom, Aaron R; Iso, Hiroyasu

2010-08-01

Recent genome-wide association and functional studies have shown that the ABCG2 gene encodes for a urate transporter, and a common causal ABCG2 variant, rs2231142, leads to elevated uric acid levels and prevalent gout among Whites and Blacks. We examined whether this finding is observed in a Japanese population, since Asians have a high reported prevalence of the T-risk allele. A total of 3923 Japanese people from the Circulatory Risk in Communities Study aged 40-90 years were genotyped for rs2231142. Associations of the rs2231142 variant with serum uric acid levels and prevalence of gout and hyperuricaemia were examined. The frequency of the T-risk allele was 31% in this Japanese sample. Multivariable adjusted mean uric acid levels were 7-9 micromol/l higher for TG and TT than GG carriers (P-additive = 0.0006). The multivariable-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of prevalent gout was 1.37 (95% CI 0.68, 2.76) for TG and 4.37 (95% CI 1.98, 9.62) for TT compared with the GG carriers (P-additive = 0.001). When evaluating the combined outcome of hyperuricaemia and gout, the respective ORs were 1.40 (95% CI 1.04, 1.87) for TG and 1.88 (95% CI 1.23, 2.89) for TT carriers. The population attributable risk was 29% for gout and 19% for gout and/or hyperuricaemia. The association of the causal ABCG2 rs2231142 variant with uric acid levels and gout was confirmed in a sample of Japanese ancestry. Our study emphasizes the importance of this common causal variant in a population with a high risk allele frequency, especially as more Japanese adopt a Western lifestyle with a concomitant increase in mean serum uric acid levels.

Apolipoprotein M T-778C polymorphism is associated with serum lipid levels and the risk of coronary artery disease in the Chinese population: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhi; Chu, Guang; Yin, Rui-Xing

2013-09-16

The apolipoprotein M (APOM) T-778C gene polymorphism has been associated with serum lipid levels and the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), but the results are inconclusive. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to detect the association between the APOM T-778C polymorphism and serum lipid levels and the risk of CAD in the Chinese population. Databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and CNKI were systematically searched. Data were extracted using standardized methods. The association was assessed by mean difference (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) or odds ratio (OR) with 95% CI. Ten studies with 4,413 patients were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled effects indicated that CT+CC group had higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) (MD:-0.36, 95% CI: -0.53 - -0.19, P < 0.0001) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (MD: -0.08, 95% CI: -0.16 - -0.01, P = 0.03) than TT group. There was no difference in the levels of triglyceride (MD: 0.06, 95% CI: -0.04 - 0.15, P = 0.22) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (MD: 0.00, 95% CI: -0.03-0.03, P = 0.93) between TT and CT+CC groups. Pooled effects showed that CAD group had higher CT+CC genotype frequency than control group (OR: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.62-2.39, P < 0.00001; heterogeneity test x(2) = 2.96, P = 0.71, I(2) = 0%). The results of the current meta-analysis show that the CT+CC group has higher levels of TC and LDL-C than the TT group. Moreover, there is also a prominent association between APOM T-778C polymorphism and the risk of CAD in the Chinese population, the CT+CC genotype is associated with increased risk of CAD.

Risk of death from cardiovascular disease associated with low-level arsenic exposure among long-term smokers in a US population-based study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farzan, Shohreh F.; Departments of Population Health and Environmental Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY; Chen, Yu

High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic's effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke,more » in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. - Highlights: • Arsenic (As) has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. • Little is known about CVD effects at lower levels of As exposure common in the US. • Few have investigated the joint effects of As and smoking on CVD in US adults. • We examine chronic low-level As exposure and smoking in relation to CVD mortality. • Arsenic exposure may increase ischemic heart disease mortality among smokers in US.« less

An agent-based modeling framework for evaluating hypotheses on risks for developing autism: effects of the gut microbial environment.

PubMed

Weston, Bronson; Fogal, Benjamin; Cook, Daniel; Dhurjati, Prasad

2015-04-01

The number of cases diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorders is rising at an alarming rate with the Centers for Disease Control estimating the 2014 incidence rate as 1 in 68. Recently, it has been hypothesized that gut bacteria may contribute to the development of autism. Specifically, the relative balances between the inflammatory microbes clostridia and desulfovibrio and the anti-inflammatory microbe bifidobacteria may become destabilized prior to autism development. The imbalance leads to a leaky gut, characterized by a more porous epithelial membrane resulting in microbial toxin release into the blood, which may contribute to brain inflammation and autism development. To test how changes in population dynamics of the gut microbiome may lead to the imbalanced microbial populations associated with autism patients, we constructed a novel agent-based model of clostridia, desulfovibrio, and bifidobacteria population interactions in the gut. The model demonstrates how changing physiological conditions in the gut can affect the population dynamics of the microbiome. Simulations using our agent-based model indicate that despite large perturbations to initial levels of bacteria, the populations robustly achieve a single steady-state given similar gut conditions. These simulation results suggests that disturbance such as a prebiotic or antibiotic treatment may only transiently affect the gut microbiome. However, sustained prebiotic treatments may correct low population counts of bifidobacteria. Furthermore, our simulations suggest that clostridia growth rate is a key determinant of risk of autism development. Treatment of high-risk infants with supra-physiological levels of lysozymes may suppress clostridia growth rate, resulting in a steep decrease in the clostridia population and therefore reduced risk of autism development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The optimal cutoff point of waist-to-hip ratio for screening Uyghur population aged 35 years and over at high-risk of cardiovascular diseases in Xinjiang].

PubMed

Abudukeremu, Nuremanguli; Pan, Shuo; Ma, Yitong; Yang, Yining; Ma, Xiang; Li, Xiaomei; Fu, Zhenyan; Huang, Ying; Xie, Xiang; Liu, Fen; Chen, Bangdang; Yu, Zixiang; Chen, You; He, Chunhui; Zheng, Yingying; Li, Shuangshuang; Jia, Lin; Wang, Yongtao

2015-02-01

To explore the appropriate waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) cutoffs to identify people at high risk of cardiovascular disease of Uygur population aged 35 years and over in Xinjiang. The cardiovascular risk survey (CRS) in Xinjiang was conducted from October 2007 to March 2010, using 4-stagestratified random sampling method and 14 618 representative participated this survey, and the questionnaire survey, anthropometric data, blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, triglyceride, low density lipoprotein (LDL-C), high density lipoprotein (HDL-C) and fasting glucose were measured. A total of 4 657 participants aged 35 years and over with complete anthropometric data were analyzed. The sensitivity, specificity and distance on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of different WHR levels predicting risk factors of cardiovascular disease were calculated. The analysis method of ROC curve was used to determine the optimum cut-off point of WHR predicting risk factors of cardiovascular disease. (1) There were significantly differences in prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, low HDL-C level, and hypertriglyceridemia between WHR < 0.75,0.75 ≤ WHR < 0.80,0.80 ≤ WHR < 0.85,0.85 ≤ WHR < 0.90,0.90 ≤ WHR < 0.95,0.95 ≤ WHR < 1.00, WHR ≥ 1.00 in male participants (P < 0.01 or 0.05), LDL-C level was similar among groups in males (P = 0.139). There were significantly differences in prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia between WHR < 0.75,0.75 ≤ WHR < 0.80,0.80 ≤ WHR < 0.85,0.85 ≤ WHR < 0.90,0.90 ≤ WHR < 0.95,0.95 ≤ WHR < 1.00, WHR ≥ 1.00 in female participants (all P < 0.01), and there were no significantly differences in prevalence of high LDL-C level and low HDL-C level among groups in females (both P > 0.05). (2) ROC analysis for hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes and ≥ 2 of these risk factors suggested a WHR cutoff of 0.92 for men and 0.90 for women as the optimal cutoff value for predicting high risk of cardiovascular disease of Uygur population aged 35 years and over in Xinjiang. Higher WHR cutoffs are needed for screening people at high risk of cardiovascular disease among Uygur population aged 35 years and over in Xinjiang.

The Global Cardiovascular Risk Transition: Associations of Four Metabolic Risk Factors with Macroeconomic Variables in 1980 and 2008

PubMed Central

Danaei, Goodarz; Singh, Gitanjali M; Paciorek, Christopher J; Lin, John K; Cowan, Melanie J; Finucane, Mariel M; Farzadfar, Farshad; Stevens, Gretchen A; Riley, Leanne M; Lu, Yuan; Rao, Mayuree; Ezzati, Majid

2014-01-01

Background It is commonly assumed that globally CVD risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and serum total cholesterol (TC) with national income, Western diet, and (for BMI) urbanization in 1980 and 2008. Methods and Results Country-level risk factor estimates for 199 countries between 1980 and 2008 were from a previous systematic analysis of population-based data. We analyzed the associations between risk factors and natural logarithm of per-capita GDP [Ln(GDP)], a measure of Western diet, and (for BMI) percent population living in urban areas. In 1980, there was a positive association between national income and population mean BMI, SBP, and TC. By 2008, the slope of the association between Ln(GDP) and SBP became negative for women and zero for men. TC was associated with national income and Western diet throughout the period. In 1980, BMI rose with per-capita GDP and then flattened at about Int$7000; by 2008, the relationship resembled an inverted-U for women, peaking at middle income levels. BMI had a positive relationship with percent urban population in both 1980 and 2008. FPG had weaker associations with these country macro characteristics, but was positively associated with BMI. Conclusions The changing associations of metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables indicate that there will be a global pandemic of hyperglycemia and diabetes, together with high blood pressure in low income countries, unless effective lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions are implemented. PMID:23481623

Relationship between blood manganese and blood pressure in the Korean general population according to KNHANES 2008

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Byung-Kook; Kim, Yangho, E-mail: yanghokm@nuri.net

Introduction: We present data on the association of manganese (Mn) level with hypertension in a representative sample of the adult Korean population who participated in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 2008. Methods: This study was based on the data obtained by KNHANES 2008, which was conducted for three years (2007-2009) using a rolling sampling design involving a complex, stratified, multistage, probability-cluster survey of a representative sample of the noninstitutionalized civilian population of South Korea. Results: Multiple regression analysis after controlling for covariates, including gender, age, regional area, education level, smoking, drinking status, hemoglobin, and serum creatinine,more » showed that the beta coefficients of log blood Mn were 3.514, 1.878, and 2.517 for diastolic blood pressure, and 3.593, 2.449, and 2.440 for systolic blood pressure in female, male, and all participants, respectively. Multiple regression analysis including three other blood metals, lead, mercury, and cadmium, revealed no significant effects of the three metals on blood pressure and showed no effect on the association between blood Mn and blood pressure. In addition, doubling the blood Mn increased the risk of hypertension 1.828, 1.573, and 1.567 fold in women, men, and all participants, respectively, after adjustment for covariates. The addition of blood lead, mercury, and cadmium as covariates did not affect the association between blood Mn and the prevalence of hypertension. Conclusion: Blood Mn level was associated with an increased risk of hypertension in a representative sample of the Korean adult population. - Highlights: {yields} We showed the association of manganese with hypertension in Korean population. {yields} This study was based on the data obtained by KNHANES 2008. {yields} Blood manganese level was associated with an increased risk of hypertension.« less

Interaction between air pollution exposure and genes in relation to levels of inflammatory markers and risk of myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Panasevich, Sviatlana; Leander, Karin; Ljungman, Petter; Bellander, Tom; de Faire, Ulf; Pershagen, Göran; Nyberg, Fredrik

2013-01-01

Objectives Air pollution exposure induces cardiovascular effects, possibly via systemic inflammation and coagulation misbalance. Genetic variation may determine individual susceptibility. Our aim was to investigate effect modification by inflammation (Interleukin6 (IL6), tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)) and coagulation (fibrinogen Bβ, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1)) gene variants on the effect of long-term or short-term air pollution exposure on both blood marker levels and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) risk. Design Population-based case–control study with a nested case-crossover study. Gene-environment interactions for short-term and long-term air pollution on blood marker levels were studied in population controls, for long-term exposure on MI risk using case–control design, and for short-term exposure on MI onset using case-crossover design. Setting The Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Programme (SHEEP) conducted in 1992–1994 in Stockholm, Sweden. Spatial modelling was used to assess long-term (up to 30 years retrospectively) air pollution exposure to traffic-NO2 and heating-SO2 emissions at home addresses. Urban background NO2, SO2, PM10 and O3 measurements were used to estimate short-term (up to 5 days) air pollution exposure. Participants 1192 MI cases and 1506 population controls aged 45–70 years. Outcomes The levels of blood markers of inflammation (IL-6, TNF-α) and coagulation (fibrinogen, PAI-1) and MI risk. Results We observed gene–environment interaction for several IL6 and TNF SNPs in relation to inflammation blood marker levels. One-year traffic-NO2 exposure was associated with higher IL-6 levels with each additional IL6-174C allele, and 1-year heating-SO2 exposure with higher levels of TNF-α in TNF-308AA homozygotes versus −308G carriers. Short-term air pollution exposure also interacted with IL6 and TNF in relation to marker levels. The risk of MI followed the effect on blood markers in each genotype group. Conclusions Genetic variants in IL6 and TNF may modify effects of long-term and short-term air pollution exposure on inflammatory marker levels and MI risk. PMID:24056475

Non-linear education gradient across the nutrition transition: mothers' overweight and the population education transition.

PubMed

Jeon, Haram; Salinas, Daniel; Baker, David P

2015-12-01

Previous studies found that developed and developing countries present opposite education-overweight gradients but have not considered the dynamics at different levels of national development. An inverted U-shaped curve is hypothesized to best describe the education-overweight association. It is also hypothesized that as the nutrition transition unfolds within nations the shape of education-overweight curve changes. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the moderating effect of the nutrition transition at the population level on the education-overweight gradient. At the individual level, a non-linear estimate of the education association was used to assess the optimal functional form of the association across the nutrition transition. Twenty-two administrations of the Demographic and Health Survey, collected at different time points across the nutrition transition in nine Latin American/Caribbean countries. Mothers of reproductive age (15-49 years) in each administration (n 143 258). In the pooled sample, a non-linear education gradient on mothers' overweight was found; each additional year of schooling increases the probability of being overweight up to the end of primary schooling, after which each additional year of schooling decreases the probability of overweight. Also, as access to diets high in animal fats and sweeteners increases over time, the curve's critical point moves to lower education levels, the detrimental positive effect of education diminishes, and both occur as the overall risk of overweight increases with greater access to harmful diets. Both hypotheses were supported. As the nutrition transition progresses, the education-overweight curve shifts steadily to a negative linear association with a higher average risk of overweight; and education, at increasingly lower levels, acts as a 'social vaccine' against increasing risk of overweight. These empirical patterns fit the general 'population education transition' curve hypothesis about how education's influences on health risks are contextualized across population transitions.

Distinctive role of income in the all-cause mortality among working age migrants and the settled population in Finland: A follow-up study from 2001 to 2014.

PubMed

Patel, Kishan; Kouvonen, Anne; Koskinen, Aki; Kokkinen, Lauri; Donnelly, Michael; O'Reilly, Dermot; Vaananen, Ari

2018-03-01

Although income level may play a significant part in mortality among migrants, previous research has not focused on the relationship between income, migration and mortality risk. The aim of this register study was to compare all-cause mortality by income level between different migrant groups and the majority settled population of Finland. A random sample was drawn of 1,058,391 working age people (age range 18-64 years; 50.4% men) living in Finland in 2000 and linked to mortality data from 2001 to 2014. The data were obtained from Statistics Finland. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the association between region of origin and all-cause mortality in low- and high-income groups. The risk for all-cause mortality was significantly lower among migrants than among the settled majority population (hazards ratio (HR) 0.57; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53-0.62). After adjustment for age, sex, marital status, employment status and personal income, the risk of mortality was significantly reduced for low-income migrants compared with the settled majority population with a low income level (HR 0.46; 95% CI 0.42-0.50) and for high-income migrants compared with the high-income settled majority (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.69-0.95). Results comparing individual high-income migrant groups and the settled population were not significant. Low-income migrants from Africa, the Middle East and Asia had the lowest mortality risk of any migrant group studied (HR 0.32; 95% CI 0.27-0.39). Particularly low-income migrants seem to display a survival advantage compared with the corresponding income group in the settled majority population. Downward social mobility, differences in health-related lifestyles and the healthy migrant effect may explain this phenomenon.

Determining significant endpoints for ecological risk analyses. 1998 annual progress report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinton, T.G.; Congdon, J.; Scott, D.

1998-06-01

'The goal of this report is to establish a protocol for assessing risks to non-human populations exposed to environmental stresses typically found on many DOE sites. The authors think that they can achieve this by using novel biological dosimeters in controlled, manipulative dose/effects experiments, and by coupling changes in metabolic rates and energy allocation patterns to meaningful population response variables (such as age-specific survivorship, reproductive output, age at maturity and longevity). This research is needed to determine the relevancy of sublethal cellular damage to the performance of individuals and populations exposed to chronic, low-level radiation, and radiation with concomitant exposuremore » to chemicals. They believe that a scientifically defensible endpoint for measuring ecological risks can only be determined once its understood the extent to which molecular damage from contaminant exposure is detrimental at the individual and population levels of biological organization. The experimental facility will allow them to develop a credible assessment tool for appraising ecological risks, and to evaluate the effects of radionuclide/chemical synergisms on non-human species. This report summarizes work completed midway of a 3-year project that began in November 1996. Emphasis to date has centered on three areas: (1) developing a molecular probe to measure stable chromosomal aberrations known as reciprocal translocations, (2) constructing an irradiation facility where the statistical power inherent in replicated mesocosms can be used to address the response of non-human organisms to exposures from low levels of radiation and metal contaminants, and (3) quantifying responses of organisms living in contaminated mesocosms and field sites.'« less

Displacement, county social cohesion and depression after a large-scale traumatic event

PubMed Central

Lê, Félice; Tracy, Melissa; Norris, Fran H.; Galea, Sandro

2013-01-01

Background Depression is a common and potentially debilitating consequence of traumatic events. Mass traumatic events cause wide-ranging disruptions to community characteristics, influencing the population risk of depression. In the aftermath of such events, population displacement is common. Stressors associated with displacement may increase risk of depression directly. Indirectly, persons who are displaced may experience erosion in social cohesion, further exacerbating their risk for depression. Methods Using data from a population-based cross-sectional survey of adults living in the 23 southernmost counties of Mississippi (N = 708), we modeled the independent and joint relations of displacement and county-level social cohesion with depression 18–24 months after Hurricane Katrina. Results After adjustment for individual- and county-level sociodemographic characteristics and county-level hurricane exposure, joint exposure to both displacement and low social cohesion was associated with substantially higher log-odds of depression (b = 1.34 [0.86–1.83]). Associations were much weaker for exposure only to low social cohesion (b = 0.28 [−0.35–0.90]) or only to displacement (b = 0.04 [−0.80– 0.88]). The associations were robust to additional adjustment for individually perceived social cohesion and social support. Conclusion Addressing the multiple, simultaneous disruptions that are a hallmark of mass traumatic events is important to identify vulnerable populations and understand the psychological ramifications of these events. PMID:23644724

Interventions addressing risk factors of ischaemic heart disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Ebireri, Jennifer; Aderemi, Adewale V; Omoregbe, Nicholas; Adeloye, Davies

2016-01-01

Background Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is currently ranked eighth among the leading causes of deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). Yet, effective population-wide preventive measures targeting risks in the region are still largely unavailable. We aimed to review population-wide and individual-level interventions addressing risk factors of IHD among adults in sSA. Methods A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and AJOL was conducted to identify studies focusing on population-wide and individual-level interventions targeting risks of IHD among adults in sSA. We conducted a detailed synthesis of basic findings of selected studies. Results A total of 2311 studies were identified, with only 9 studies meeting our selection criteria. 3 broad interventions were identified: dietary modifications, physical activity and community-based health promotion measures on tobacco and alcohol cessation. 3 studies reported significant reduction in blood pressure (BP), and another study reported statistically significant reduction in mean total cholesterol. Other outcome measures observed ranged from mild to no reduction in BP, blood glucose, body mass index and total cholesterol, respectively. Conclusions We cannot specify with all certainty contextually feasible interventions that can be effective in modifying IHD risk factors in population groups across sSA. We recommend more research on IHD, particularly on the understanding of the burden, geared towards developing and/or strengthening preventive and treatment interventions for the disease in sSA. PMID:27381212

Cellular Sentinels Toxicity Platform

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

Air Force Research Laboratory 711th Human Performance Wing U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine Aeromedical Research Department 2510 Fifth St...toxicity testing is to assess the likely risks posed to human populations at ambient exposure levels. Unfortunately, current approaches to toxicology... human populations at ambient exposure levels. For the past 50 years, this goal has been met by high dose testing in experimental animals with

Role of the APOB Gene Polymorphism (c.12669G>A, p. Gln4154Lys) in Coronary Artery Disease in the Indian Punjabi Population.

PubMed

Sharma, R; Mahajan, M; Singh, B; Singh, G; Singh, P

2011-12-01

High concentration of apolipoprotein B (apoB) is a risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD). The association of the APOB gene polymorphism c.12669G>A, p.Gln4154Lys with the risk of CAD varies considerably in different populations. The present study represents the first investigation regarding the role of this APOB gene polymorphism with CAD in the Indian Punjabi population. We have studied the APOB gene polymorphism c.12669G>A, p.Gln4154Lys and its relationship with lipid, apoB, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) heterogeneity and oxidation in subjects suffering from CAD. The study was conducted on 87 patients with CAD; 75 healthy subjects served as controls. Polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) was used to determine the DNA polymorphism in the APOB gene. Frequency of R- (mutant) allele was significantly high (p <0.05) in CAD patients when compared to controls. Variations in serum lipid levels in the R+R+ and R+R- APOB genotypes were insignificant (p >0.05). However, serum apoB levels were significantly raised (p <0.05) in CAD patients with the R+R- genotype as compared to those with the R+R+ APOB genotype. Coronary artery disease patients had raised significantly raised (p <0.01) Log triglyceride/high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio, apoB carbonyl content and increased malondialdehyde-low density lipoprotein (MDA-LDL levels, irrespective of APOB genotype as compared to controls. Carriers of the R- allele are at higher risk of CAD, probably because of elevated serum apoB levels in the Indian Punjabi population. Overall, it may be concluded that the R- allele might be associated with increased susceptibility towards CAD development in the Indian Punjabi population, and one of the linking factor is the elevation in serum apoB levels. However, this association needs further evaluation in a larger population. Secondly, the robust mechanism behind the positive association of the R- allele with raised serum apoB levels needs to be explored, which might be helpful in the strengthening the observed results.

Health and Well-Being Among Young People From Canadian Farms: Associations With a Culture of Risk-Taking.

PubMed

Pickett, William; Berg, Richard L; Marlenga, Barbara

2017-10-23

To determine whether patterns of adolescent risk behavior in rural populations, and especially farm populations, are associated with negative indicators of adolescent health and well-being, beyond an established association between risk-taking and injury. The study base was Cycle 7 (2014) of the Canadian Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children study. Children aged 11-16 years (n = 2,565; 2,533 weighted) who reported living or working on farms were matched within schools in a 1:1 ratio with other rural children. We related a scale describing engagement in multiple risk behavior to a series of indicators of adolescent health and well-being. Farm children, particularly male farm children, showed the highest levels of risk behavior. Multiple risk behavior was strongly and consistently associated with negative indicators of general health, mental health (life satisfaction, psychosomatic symptoms), and academic performance in all subpopulations. Adolescent risk behavior in rural populations, and especially farm populations, is common and associated with a variety of negative indicators of adolescent health and well-being. We speculate that the origins of this risk-taking lifestyle surround cultural definitions of self and identity, which have both protective and negative effects. © 2017 National Rural Health Association.

Ionizing radiation: future etiologic research and preventive strategies.

PubMed

Darby, S C; Inskip, P D

1995-11-01

Estimates of cancer risks following exposure to ionizing radiation traditionally have been based on the experience of populations exposed to substantial (and known) doses delivered over short periods of time. Examples include survivors of the atomic bombings at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and persons treated with radiation for benign or malignant disease. Continued follow-up of these populations is important to determine the long-term effects of exposure in childhood, to characterize temporal patterns of excess risk for different types of cancer, and to understand better the interactions between radiation and other host and environmental factors. Most population exposure to radiation occurs at very low dose rates. For low linear energy transfer (LET) radiations, it often has been assumed that cancer risks per unit dose are lower following protracted exposure than following acute exposure. Studies of nuclear workers chronically exposed over a working lifetime provide data that can be used to test this hypothesis, and preliminary indications are that the risks per unit dose for most cancers other than leukemia are similar to those for acute exposure. However, these results are subject to considerable uncertainty, and further information on this question is needed. Residential radon is the major source of population exposure to high-LET radiation. Current estimates of the risk of lung cancer due to residential exposure to radon and radon daughters are based on the experience of miners exposed to much higher concentrations. Data indicate that lung cancer risk among miners is inversely associated with exposure rate, and also is influenced by the presence of other lung carcinogens such as arsenic in the mine environment. Further study of populations of radon-exposed miners would be informative, particularly those exposed at below-average levels. More direct evidence on the effects of residential exposure to radon also is desirable but might be difficult to come by, as risks associated with radon levels found in most homes might be too low to be quantified accurately in epidemiological studies.

Ionizing radiation: future etiologic research and preventive strategies.

PubMed Central

Darby, S C; Inskip, P D

1995-01-01

Estimates of cancer risks following exposure to ionizing radiation traditionally have been based on the experience of populations exposed to substantial (and known) doses delivered over short periods of time. Examples include survivors of the atomic bombings at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and persons treated with radiation for benign or malignant disease. Continued follow-up of these populations is important to determine the long-term effects of exposure in childhood, to characterize temporal patterns of excess risk for different types of cancer, and to understand better the interactions between radiation and other host and environmental factors. Most population exposure to radiation occurs at very low dose rates. For low linear energy transfer (LET) radiations, it often has been assumed that cancer risks per unit dose are lower following protracted exposure than following acute exposure. Studies of nuclear workers chronically exposed over a working lifetime provide data that can be used to test this hypothesis, and preliminary indications are that the risks per unit dose for most cancers other than leukemia are similar to those for acute exposure. However, these results are subject to considerable uncertainty, and further information on this question is needed. Residential radon is the major source of population exposure to high-LET radiation. Current estimates of the risk of lung cancer due to residential exposure to radon and radon daughters are based on the experience of miners exposed to much higher concentrations. Data indicate that lung cancer risk among miners is inversely associated with exposure rate, and also is influenced by the presence of other lung carcinogens such as arsenic in the mine environment. Further study of populations of radon-exposed miners would be informative, particularly those exposed at below-average levels. More direct evidence on the effects of residential exposure to radon also is desirable but might be difficult to come by, as risks associated with radon levels found in most homes might be too low to be quantified accurately in epidemiological studies. PMID:8741792

A comparison of cardiovascular disease risk factor biomarkers in African Americans and Yoruba Nigerians.

PubMed

Deeg, M; Baiyewu, O; Gao, S; Ogunniyi, A; Shen, J; Gureje, O; Taylor, S; Murrell, J; Unverzagt, F; Smith-Gamble, V; Evans, R; Dickens, J; Hendrie, H; Hall, K

2008-01-01

Classical risk factors for coronary artery disease are changing in the developing world while rates of cardiovascular disease are increasing in these populations. Newer risk factors have been identified for cardiovascular disease, but these have been rarely examined in elderly populations and not those of developing countries. This study was a cross-sectional comparison from a longitudinal, observational, epidemiologic study in which participants are interviewed at three-year intervals. The sample included 1510 African Americans from Indianapolis, Indiana, and 1254 Yoruba from Ibadan, Nigeria. We compared anthropomorphic measurements; biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction (plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 [PAI-1 and E-selectin), inflammation (C-reactive protein), and lipid oxidation (8-isoprostane); and levels of lipids, homocysteine, folate, and vitamin B12. Cholesterol, triglycerides, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were higher in African Americans. For markers of endothelial dysfunction, E-selectin and homocysteine differed between men, and PAI-1 was higher in the Yoruba. C-reactive protein differed only in women, but 8-isoprostane was higher in the Yoruba. Higher lipid levels in African Americans are consistent with their Western diet and lifestyle. Oxidative stress appears to be higher in the Yoruba than in African Americans, which may be secondary to dietary differences. Whether these differences in classical and emerging risk factors account for the different rates of cardiovascular disease, dementia, or other morbidities in these two populations remains to be determined.

Organism and population-level ecological models for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ecological risk assessment typically focuses on animal populations as endpoints for regulatory ecotoxicology. Scientists at USEPA are developing models for animal populations exposed to a wide range of chemicals from pesticides to emerging contaminants. Modeled taxa include aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, fish, amphibians, and birds, and employ a wide range of methods, from matrix-based projection models to mechanistic bioenergetics models and spatially explicit population models. not applicable

Blood pressure, serum cholesterol and nutritional state in Tanzania and in the Amazon: comparison with an Italian population.

PubMed

Pavan, L; Casiglia, E; Pauletto, P; Batista, S L; Ginocchio, G; Kwankam, M M; Biasin, R; Mazza, A; Puato, M; Russo, E; Pessina, A C

1997-10-01

To confirm that westernization of dietary habits represents a stimulus for the expression of cardiovascular risk. Three representative age- and sex-matched samples of general populations of three continents were compared cross-sectionally by analysis of variance. In total 1110 subjects aged 22-89 years, divided into three groups (370 from Tanzania and Uganda, 370 from the Amazonian region of Brazil, and 370 from northern Italy; 111 men and 259 women in each group). The blood pressure of Africans eating a low-salt fish and vegetable' diet was lower than those of Brazilians, whose diet was based on cereals and meat, and highly urbanized Italians. The systolic blood pressure was correlated to the body mass index for all three populations, but with age only for the Brazilians and Italians. The total cholesterol level and body mass index, both of which are low among Africans, increased progressively with increasing economic level. Transition from a rural to an urbanized lifestyle is accompanied by a rise in the main cardiovascular risk factors; the present data also show that environmental rather than racial factors have a crucial impact on the risk pattern of populations.

Population differentiation in allele frequencies of obesity-associated SNPs.

PubMed

Mao, Linyong; Fang, Yayin; Campbell, Michael; Southerland, William M

2017-11-10

Obesity is emerging as a global health problem, with more than one-third of the world's adult population being overweight or obese. In this study, we investigated worldwide population differentiation in allele frequencies of obesity-associated SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms). We collected a total of 225 obesity-associated SNPs from a public database. Their population-level allele frequencies were derived based on the genotype data from 1000 Genomes Project (phase 3). We used hypergeometric model to assess whether the effect allele at a given SNP is significantly enriched or depleted in each of the 26 populations surveyed in the 1000 Genomes Project with respect to the overall pooled population. Our results indicate that 195 out of 225 SNPs (86.7%) possess effect alleles significantly enriched or depleted in at least one of the 26 populations. Populations within the same continental group exhibit similar allele enrichment/depletion patterns whereas inter-continental populations show distinct patterns. Among the 225 SNPs, 15 SNPs cluster in the first intron region of the FTO gene, which is a major gene associated with body-mass index (BMI) and fat mass. African populations exhibit much smaller blocks of LD (linkage disequilibrium) among these15 SNPs while European and Asian populations have larger blocks. To estimate the cumulative effect of all variants associated with obesity, we developed the personal composite genetic risk score for obesity. Our results indicate that the East Asian populations have the lowest averages of the composite risk scores, whereas three European populations have the highest averages. In addition, the population-level average of composite genetic risk scores is significantly correlated (R 2 = 0.35, P = 0.0060) with obesity prevalence. We have detected substantial population differentiation in allele frequencies of obesity-associated SNPs. The results will help elucidate the genetic basis which may contribute to population disparities in obesity prevalence.

Ethnic disparities in the risk of colorectal adenomas associated with lipid levels: a retrospective multiethnic study.

PubMed

Davis-Yadley, Ashley H; Lipka, Seth; Shen, Huafeng; Devanney, Valerie; Swarup, Supreeya; Barnowsky, Alex; Silpe, Jeff; Mosdale, Josh; Pan, Qinshi; Fridlyand, Svetlana; Sreeharshan, Suhas; Abraham, Albin; Viswanathan, Prakash; Krishnamachari, Bhuma

2015-03-01

Although data exists showing that uncontrolled lipid levels in white and black patients is associated with colorectal adenomas, there are currently no studies looking only at the Hispanic population. With the rapid increase in the Hispanic population, we aimed to look at their risk of colorectal adenomas in association with lipid levels. We retrospectively analyzed 1473 patients undergoing colonoscopy from 2009 to 2011 at a community hospital. Statistical analysis was performed using Chi-squared for categorical variables and t test for continuous variables with age-, gender-, and race-adjusted odds ratios. Unconditional logistic regression model was used to estimate 95 % confidence intervals (CI). SAS 9.3 software was used to perform all statistical analysis. In our general population, there was an association with elevated triglyceride levels greater than 150 and presence of multiple colorectal adenomas with odds ratio (OR) 1.60 (1.03, 2.48). There was an association with proximal colon adenomas and cholesterol levels between 200 and 239 with OR 1.57 (1.07, 2.30), and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels of greater than 130 with OR 1.54 (1.04, 2.30). There was no association between high-density lipoproteins (HDL) levels and colorectal adenomas. The Hispanic population showed no statistical correlation between elevated triglycerides, cholesterol, or LDL with the presence, size, location, or multiplicity of colorectal adenomas. We found a significant correlation between elevated lipid levels and colorectal adenomas in white and black patients; however, there was no such association in the Hispanic population. This finding can possibly be due to environmental factors such as dietary, colonic flora, or genetic susceptibility, which fosters further investigation and research.

Targeted cardiopulmonary resuscitation training focused on the family members of high-risk patients at a regional medical center: A comparison between family members of high-risk and no-risk patients.

PubMed

Han, Kap Su; Lee, Ji Sung; Kim, Su Jin; Lee, Sung Woo

2018-05-01

We developed a hospital-based cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training model focused on the target population (family members of patients with potential risks for cardiac arrest) and compared the outcome of CPR training between target and non-target populations for validity. Family members of patients in training were divided into three groups on the basis of patients' diseases, as follows: 1) the cardio-specific (CS) risk group, including family members of patients with cardiac disease at risk of cardiac arrest; 2) the cardiovascular (CV) risk group, including family members of patients with risk factors for cardiovascular disease; and 3) the no-risk group. Pre- and posttraining surveys and skill tests as well as a post-training 3-month telephone survey were conducted. Educational outcomes were analyzed. A total of 203 family members were enrolled into 21 CPR training classes. The CS group (n=88) included elderly persons and housewives with a lower level of education compared with the CV (n=79) and no-risk groups (n=36). The CS group was motivated by healthcare professionals and participated in the training course. The CS, CV, and no-risk groups showed improvements in knowledge, willingness to perform CPR, and skills. Despite the older age and lower level of education in the CS group, the effects of education were similar to those in the other groups. A high rate of response and secondary propagation of CPR training were observed in the CS group. Family members of patients with heart disease could be an appropriate target population for CPR training, particularly in terms of recruitment and secondary propagation. Targeted intervention may be an effective training strategy to improve bystander CPR rates.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

PubMed

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Adapting Technological Interventions to Meet the Needs of Priority Populations.

PubMed

Linke, Sarah E; Larsen, Britta A; Marquez, Becky; Mendoza-Vasconez, Andrea; Marcus, Bess H

2016-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) comprise the leading cause of mortality worldwide, accounting for 3 in 10 deaths. Individuals with certain risk factors, including tobacco use, obesity, low levels of physical activity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, racial/ethnic minority status and low socioeconomic status, experience higher rates of CVD and are, therefore, considered priority populations. Technological devices such as computers and smartphones are now routinely utilized in research studies aiming to prevent CVD and its risk factors, and they are also rampant in the public and private health sectors. Traditional health behavior interventions targeting these risk factors have been adapted for technology-based approaches. This review provides an overview of technology-based interventions conducted in these priority populations as well as the challenges and gaps to be addressed in future research. Researchers currently possess tremendous opportunities to engage in technology-based implementation and dissemination science to help spread evidence-based programs focusing on CVD risk factors in these and other priority populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elder abuse in Chinese populations: a global review.

PubMed

Dong, XinQi

2015-01-01

This review focuses on the epidemiology of elder abuse in the global Chinese population with respect to its prevalence, risk factors, and consequences, as well as the perceptions of elder abuse. Evidence revealed that elder abuse and its subtypes are common among the global Chinese population with prevalence ranging from 0.2% to 64%. Younger age, lower income levels, depression, cognitive impairment, and lack of social support were consistently associated with self-reported elder abuse. Caregiver burden was a constant risk factor for the proclivity to elder abuse by caregivers. The adverse health outcomes of elder abuse included suicidal ideation and psychological stress. Some primary research gaps exist: such as, lack of consistency in measurements and recall periods, insufficient studies on the causal relationships between potential risk factors and elder abuse, consequences of elder abuse, and possible interventions. In order to reduce the risk of elder abuse in the global Chinese population, collaboration is encouraged among researchers, health care professionals, social service providers, and policy makers.

The emergence of human-evolutionary medical genomics

PubMed Central

Crespi, Bernard J

2011-01-01

In this review, I describe how evolutionary genomics is uniquely suited to spearhead advances in understanding human disease risk, owing to the privileged position of genes as fundamental causes of phenotypic variation, and the ability of population genetic and phylogenetic methods to robustly infer processes of natural selection, drift, and mutation from genetic variation at the levels of family, population, species, and clade. I first provide an overview of models for the origins and maintenance of genetically based disease risk in humans. I then discuss how analyses of genetic disease risk can be dovetailed with studies of positive and balancing selection, to evaluate the degree to which the ‘genes that make us human’ also represent the genes that mediate risk of polygenic disease. Finally, I present four basic principles for the nascent field of human evolutionary medical genomics, each of which represents a process that is nonintuitive from a proximate perspective. Joint consideration of these principles compels novel forms of interdisciplinary analyses, most notably studies that (i) analyze tradeoffs at the level of molecular genetics, and (ii) identify genetic variants that are derived in the human lineage or in specific populations, and then compare individuals with derived versus ancestral alleles. PMID:25567974

Divergent fifteen-year trends in traditional and cardiometabolic risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in the Seychelles.

PubMed

Bovet, Pascal; Romain, Sarah; Shamlaye, Conrad; Mendis, Shanti; Darioli, Roger; Riesen, Walter; Tappy, Luc; Paccaud, Fred

2009-06-26

Few studies have assessed secular changes in the levels of cardiovascular risk factors (CV-RF) in populations of low or middle income countries. The systematic collection of a broad set of both traditional and metabolic CV-RF in 1989 and 2004 in the population of the Seychelles islands provides a unique opportunity to examine trends at a fairly early stage of the "diabesity" era in a country in the African region. Two examination surveys were conducted in independent random samples of the population aged 25-64 years in 1989 and 2004, attended by respectively 1081 and 1255 participants (participation rates >80%). All results are age-standardized to the WHO standard population. In 2004 vs. 1989, the levels of the main traditional CV-RF have either decreased, e.g. smoking (17% vs. 30%, p < 0.001), mean blood pressure (127.8/84.8 vs. 130.0/83.4 mmHg, p < 0.05), or only moderately increased, e.g. median LDL-cholesterol (3.58 vs. 3.36 mmol/l, p < 0. 01). In contrast, marked detrimental trends were found for obesity (37% vs. 21%, p < 0.001) and several cardiometabolic CVD-RF, e.g. mean HDL-cholesterol (1.36 vs. 1.40 mmol/l, p < 0.05), median triglycerides (0.80 vs. 0.78 mmol/l, p < 0.01), mean blood glucose (5.89 vs. 5.22 mmol/l, p < 0.001), median insulin (11.6 vs. 8.3 micromol/l, p < 0.001), median HOMA-IR (2.9 vs. 1.8, p < 0.001) and diabetes (9.4% vs. 6.2%, p < 0.001). At age 40-64, the prevalence of elevated total cardiovascular risk tended to decrease (e.g. WHO-ISH risk score > or =10; 11% vs. 13%, ns), whereas the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (which integrates several cardiometabolic CVD-RF) nearly doubled (36% vs. 20%, p < 0.001). Data on physical activity and on intake of alcohol, fruit and vegetables are also provided. Awareness and treatment rates improved substantially for hypertension and diabetes, but control rates improved for the former only. Median levels of the cardiometabolic CVD-RF increased between 1989 and 2004 within all BMI strata, suggesting that the worsening levels of cardiometabolic CVD-RF in the population were not only related to increasing BMI levels in the interval. The levels of several traditional CVD-RF improved over time, while marked detrimental trends were observed for obesity, diabetes and several cardiometabolic factors. Thus, in this population, the rapid health transition was characterized by substantial changes in the patterns of CVD-RF. More generally, this analysis suggests the importance of surveillance systems to identify risk factor trends and the need for preventive strategies to promote healthy lifestyles and nutrition.

Social Support and HIV-related Risk Behaviors: A Systematic Review of the Global Literature

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaoming; Stanton, Bonita

2013-01-01

Existing empirical evidence has well documented the role of social support in both physical and psychological well-being among various populations. In the context of HIV prevention, the rapid increase of studies on social support merits a systematic review to synthesize the current global literature on association between social support and HIV-related risk behaviors. The current review reveals a complex picture of this relationship across diverse populations. Existing studies indicate that higher levels of social support are related to fewer HIV-related risk behaviors among female sex workers and people living with HIV/AIDS and heterosexual adults in general. However, influences of social support on HIV-related risk behaviors are inconsistent within drug users, men who have sex with men and adolescents. These variations in findings may be attributed to different measurement of social support in different studies, specific context of social support for diverse population, or various characteristics of the social networks the study population obtained support from. Future studies are needed to explore the mechanism of how social support affects HIV-related risk behaviors. HIV prevention intervention efforts need to focus on the positive effect of social support for various vulnerable and at-risk populations. Future efforts also need to incorporate necessary structure change and utilize technical innovation in order to maximize the protective role of social support in HIV risk prevention or reduction. PMID:23921582

Serum phosphate is associated with fracture risk: The Rotterdam Study and MrOS

PubMed Central

Campos-Obando, N; Koek, W.N.H.; Hooker, E.R.; van der Eerden, B.C.J.; Pols, H.A.; Hofman, A.; van Leeuwen, J.P.T.M.; Uitterlinden, A.G.; Nielson, C.M.; Zillikens, MC

2017-01-01

Extreme phosphate levels (P) have been associated with mineralization defects and increased fracture risk. Whether P within normal range is related to bone health in the general population is not well understood. To investigate the association of P with bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk, we assessed two population-based cohorts: the Dutch Rotterdam Study (RS-I, RS-II, RS-III; n=6791) and the US Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS; n=5425) study. The relationship of P with lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN) BMD was tested in all cohorts via linear models; fracture risk was tested in RS-I, RS-II and MrOS through Cox models, after follow-up of 8.6, 6.6 and 10.9 years, respectively. Adjustments were made for age, body mass index, smoking, serum levels of calcium, potassium, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), FN-BMD, prevalent diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Additional adjustments were made for phosphate intake, parathyroid hormone, and fibroblast growth factor 23 levels in MrOS. We further stratified by eGFR. Results were pooled through study-level meta-analyses. Hazard ratios (HR) and betas (β) (from meta-analyses) are expressed per 1 mg/dL P increase. P was positively associated with fracture risk in men and women from RS and findings were replicated in MrOS (pooled HR all (95% CI): 1.47 (1.31–1.65)). P was associated with fracture risk in subjects without chronic kidney disease (CKD): all (1.44 (1.26–1.63)) and in men with CKD (1.93 (1.42–2.62)). P was inversely related to LS-BMD in men (β: −0.06 (−0.11 to −0.02)) and not to FN-BMD in either sex. In summary, serum P was positively related to fracture risk independently from BMD and phosphate intake after adjustments for potential confounders. P and LS-BMD were negatively related in men. Our findings suggest that increased P levels even within normal range might be deleterious for bone health in the normal population. PMID:28177140

A comprehensive assessment of mercury exposure in penguin populations throughout the Southern Hemisphere: Using trophic calculations to identify sources of population-level variation.

PubMed

Brasso, Rebecka L; Chiaradia, André; Polito, Michael J; Raya Rey, Andrea; Emslie, Steven D

2015-08-15

The wide geographic distribution of penguins (Order Sphenisciformes) throughout the Southern Hemisphere provided a unique opportunity to use a single taxonomic group as biomonitors of mercury among geographically distinct marine ecosystems. Mercury concentrations were compared among ten species of penguins representing 26 geographically distinct breeding populations. Mercury concentrations were relatively low (⩽2.00ppm) in feathers from 18/26 populations considered. Population-level differences in trophic level explained variation in mercury concentrations among Little, King, and Gentoo penguin populations. However, Southern Rockhopper and Magellanic penguins breeding on Staten Island, Tierra del Fuego, had the highest mercury concentrations relative to their conspecifics despite foraging at a lower trophic level. The concurrent use of stable isotope and mercury data allowed us to document penguin populations at the greatest risk of exposure to harmful concentrations of mercury as a result of foraging at a high trophic level or in geographic 'hot spots' of mercury availability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Blood Levels of Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin/Kexin Type 9 (PCSK9) in Men from Different Population Groups and Its Relation to Unfavorable Long-Term Prognosis].

PubMed

Ragino, Yu I; Astrakova, K S; Shakhtshneider, E V; Stakhneva, E M; Gafarov, V V; Bogatyrev, S N; Voevoda, M I

2017-04-01

of the study was to investigate blood levels of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) in men from different population subgroups, their associations with cardiovascular risk factors and with unfavorable 7-years long-term prognosis. The study included three subgroups of men from a population sample of residents of Novosibirsk, 44-73 years old, not receiving lipid-lowering drugs: subgroup of population proper (183 men), subgroup with hypercholesterolemia (46 men), and subgroup with hypocholesterolemia (18 men). Blood level of PCSK9 was determined by ELISA using the test-systems "Human Proprotein Convertase 9/PCSK9 Immunoassay". Study endpoints (myocardial infarction, cardiovascular death) were registered during 7 years after baseline examination of subgroups using the data of the Registers of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. Distribution of PCSK9 protein in subgroups with hyper- and hypocholesterolemia was normal. In the subgroup of population proper it was abnormal with leftward shift. PCSK9 protein concentration in the subgroup with hypercholesterolemia was 1.2 times higher than in the population subgroup. PCSK9 protein level correlated significantly with blood levels of total cholesterol (CH), low density lipoprotein (LDL) CH, and glucose. Only 15% of PCSK9 variability was due to the influence of other factors (R Square=0.155, p<0.001). Factors with significant influence on blood level of PCSK9 protein were levels of high density lipoprotein CH (=0.238, p=0.023), triglycerides (=0.253, p=0.049) and LDL CH (=0.751, p=0.009). Multivariate regression analysis revealed significant independent association of PCSK9 protein levels with cardiovascular death during period of registration (7-years) (p=0.048, OR=1.01). This result indicates that in men increase of blood level of PCSK9 protein by 1ng/ml independently of other parameters increases relative risk of cardiovascular death during following 7 years by 1%.

CONSTRUCTING, PERTURBATION ANALYSIIS AND TESTING OF A MULTI-HABITAT PERIODIC MATRIX POPULATION MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

We present a matrix model that explicitly incorporates spatial habitat structure and seasonality and discuss preliminary results from a landscape level experimental test. Ecological risk to populations is often modeled without explicit treatment of spatially or temporally distri...

COST VS. QUALITY IN DEMOGRAPHIC MODELLING: WHEN IS A VITAL RATE GOOD ENOUGH?

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will focus on the assessment of quality for demographic parameters to be used in population-level risk assessment. Current population models can handle genetic, demographic, and environmental stochasticity, density dependence, and multiple stressors. However, cu...

Anticholinergics and Central Nervous System Effects: Are We Confused?

PubMed Central

Staskin, David R; Zoltan, Edward

2007-01-01

The central nervous system (CNS) effects of anticholinergic agents have been documented in various patient populations and to varying degrees in case reports, brain-activity surrogates, and computerized cognitive testing. The older patient population with overactive bladder represents a group at increased risk of cognitive impairment and other CNS side effects associated with antimuscarinic agents. The complexity of the effect of anticholinergic agents on CNS function requires an increased level of careful investigation. Studies need to be performed in the at-risk population with multiple, validated tests at clinically prescribed doses in acute and chronic situations. These studies need to take into account the effect of commonly prescribed dosing regimens, with doses selected to represent with equivalent bladder potency. The alterations in the serum levels and parent/metabolite effects contributed by metabolic issues or drug delivery systems require special attention. PMID:18231615

From individual to population level effects of toxicants in the tubicifid Branchiura sowerbyi using threshold effect models in a Bayesian framework.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Billoir, Elise; Péry, Alexandre R R; Garric, Jeanne; Charles, Sandrine

2010-05-01

Effects of zinc were studied in the freshwater worm Branchiura sowerbyi using partial and full life-cycle tests. Only newborn and juveniles were sensitive to zinc, displaying effects on survival, growth, and age at first brood at environmentally relevant concentrations. Threshold effect models were proposed to assess toxic effects on individuals. They were fitted to life-cycle test data using Bayesian inference and adequately described life-history trait data in exposed organisms. The daily asymptotic growth rate of theoretical populations was then simulated with a matrix population model, based upon individual-level outputs. Population-level outputs were in accordance with existing literature for controls. Working in a Bayesian framework allowed incorporating parameter uncertainty in the simulation of the population-level response to zinc exposure, thus increasing the relevance of test results in the context of ecological risk assessment.

[Parents' education and infant mortality 1967-1998].

PubMed

Arntzen, Annett; Samuelsen, Sven Ove; Bakketeig, Leiv S; Stoltenberg, Camilla

2004-11-18

We have examined the association between socioeconomic status and risk of infant death in Norway between 1967 and 1998. Information from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway on all live births and infant deaths was linked to information from Statistics Norway on parents' education. There were 1,777,364 eligible live births and 15,517 infant deaths. Differences between educational-attainment groups were estimated as risk difference, relative risk, population-attributable fraction, and index of inequality ratio. The risk of infant death decreased in all educational-attainment groups and the level of education increased over time. For neonatal (0-27 days of life) death the risk difference between infants whose mothers had high or low education was reduced from 3.5/1000 in the 1970s to 0.9/1000 in the 1990s. The inequality ratio declined from 1.72 to 1.32 and the population-attributable fraction from 22.3 to 8.4. For risk of postneonatal (28-364 days of life) death, the difference between infants whose mothers were in high or low education brackets increased from 0.7/1000 in the 1970s to 2.0/1000 in the 1990s. The inequality ratio went up from 1.31 to 4.00 and the population-attributable fraction from 9.7 to 39.5. Since the late 1960s, infant mortality has decreased and parental educational levels have risen. There is a higher degree of social equality with regard to risk of neonatal death, while the opposite holds for postneonatal death.

Trends in nutritional intakes and nutrition-related cardiovascular disease risk factors in Lebanon: the need for immediate action.

PubMed

Nasreddine, Lara; Naja, Farah A; Sibai, Abla-Mehio; Helou, Khalil; Adra, Nada; Hwalla, Nahla

2014-01-01

To examine the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and their association with dietary variables in the Lebanese population while reviewing secular trends in the population's nutritional intakes and nutrition-related CVD risk factors. Data on CVD risk factors and food consumption patterns in Lebanon were collected from scholarly papers, including individual studies and systematic review articles. Electronic databases were searched using combinations of key terms. The prevalence of obesity in Lebanon followed an alarming increasing trend over time, paralleled by an escalation in the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia. Food consumption surveys illustrate an increasing trend in energy intake and the proportion of energy derived from fat and animal products, with a concomitant decrease in carbohydrates and cereals intakes. The shift towards an atherogenic diet coupled with the alarming increase in nutrition-related cardiovascular risk factors suggest that the Lebanese population is at an increased risk for CVDs. This should alert to the importance of formulating multicomponent intervention strategies at both the individual and population levels to halt the progression of nutrition-related diseases in the country, while highlighting the need for immediate public health efforts to promote the adoption of healthy dietary habits.

Unhealthy Behaviours: An International Comparison.

PubMed

Ferretti, Fabrizio

2015-01-01

In the current global economy, chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become the leading cause of death and a major health concern for both developed and developing countries. Among other factors, the worldwide spread of NCDs is driven by the globalisation of unhealthy habits. The purpose of this paper is to develop a simple statistic to measure, at the national level, the average population's exposure to the main NCDs modifiable risk factors. The approach and methodology followed by the United Nations Development Programme to compute the Human Development Index (HDI) is applied to four basic indicators of NCD-related preventable risk factors (alcohol consumption, excess caloric intake, non-balanced diet and tobacco use) in 112 countries worldwide in 2012-14. We obtain a summary composite index, which we call the Unhealthy Behaviour Index (UBI), which ranks countries by the average level of the unhealthy habits (drinking, eating and smoking) of their populations. We find that Belarus and Russian federation are the two countries with the unhealthiest NCD-related lifestyle. With the exception of Canada, the first twenty populations more exposed to the main NCDs preventable risk factors all live in European countries, and mainly in countries of Eastern Europe. Overall, the UBI tends to increase along with the level of human development. In medium, high and very high HDI countries, however, the same level of human development may be associated with very different kinds of NCD-related lifestyles. Finally, economic growth may push populations toward either more unhealthy or healthy habits, depending on the countries' level of development; the elasticity of unhealthy habits with respect to income per capita is positive (but less than one: on average 0.6) until $30,000, decreases as income rises, and becomes negative (around -0.3) in very high income countries.

Health status, sexual and drug risk, and psychosocial factors relevant to postrelease planning for HIV+ prisoners.

PubMed

Feaster, Daniel J; Reznick, Olga Grinstead; Zack, Barry; McCartney, Kathleen; Gregorich, Steven E; Brincks, Ahnalee M

2013-10-01

The prevalence of HIV infection among male prison inmates is significantly higher than in the U.S. population. Adequate planning to ensure continued medication adherence and continuity of care after release is important for this population. This study describes the prerelease characteristics of 162 incarcerated HIV-positive men (40 from jails and 122 from prisons). The results include a demographic description of the sample and the participants' sexual risk behaviors, substance use, health status and HIV medication adherence, health care utilization, mental health, and family and social support. The results highlight a potentially high level of need for services and low levels of support and social connectedness. Postrelease planning should include support for improving HIV medication adherence as well as reducing both sexual and injection drug-related transmission risk for these individuals.

Alcohol consumption and risk-factors for ischemic heart disease in Chuckchi inhabitants: clinical, biological and population studies.

PubMed

Chernobrovkina, T V; Arkavy, J V; Astakhova, T I

1991-01-01

Clinical, biochemical and epidemiological research has shown variations of serum enzymatic constellations (relatively high level of GGT in Chuckchi natives compared to nonnative newcomers). This difference leads to different unspecific body resistance to exogenous factors, particularly to histamine-liberators. The GGT system has also been linked to alcohol-induced clinical IHD. Based on these findings patients will be screened for GGT activity, which may serve as a marker for population phenotypes representative of high-risk groups. This deficiency in GGT may indicate a high risk for alcohol-related heart disease.

Examining the Effects of Transphobic Discrimination and Race on HIV Risk Among Transwomen in San Francisco.

PubMed

Arayasirikul, Sean; Wilson, Erin C; Raymond, Henry F

2017-09-01

Transwomen, in particular transwomen of color (TWOC), are among the most vulnerable populations at risk for HIV. This secondary analysis is organized using a gender minority stress framework to examine the effects of transphobic discrimination and race on HIV risk factors. We describe the sample of 149 HIV- adult transwomen in San Francisco and use binary logistic regression to examine the relationship between levels of transphobic discrimination and TWOC status on binge drinking and condomless receptive anal intercourse (CRAI), controlling for potential confounders. Those with high levels of transphobic discrimination had 3.59 fold greater odds of engaging in binge drinking compared to those who reported a low level of transphobic discrimination (95% CI 1.284-10.034; P = 0.015). TWOC had nearly threefold greater odds of CRAI compared to white transwomen (95% CI 1.048-8.464; P = 0.040). We discuss implications for gender minority stress research and future interventions for this population.

Major Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Latin America: A Comparison with the United States. The Latin American Consortium of Studies in Obesity (LASO)

PubMed Central

Chirinos, Julio A.; Gómez, Luis F.; Perel, Pablo; Pichardo, Rafael; González, Angel; Sánchez, José R.; Ferreccio, Catterina; Aguilera, Ximena; Silva, Eglé; Oróstegui, Myriam; Medina-Lezama, Josefina; Pérez, Cynthia M.; Suárez, Erick; Ortiz, Ana P.; Rosero, Luis; Schapochnik, Noberto; Ortiz, Zulma; Ferrante, Daniel; Casas, Juan P.

2013-01-01

Background Limited knowledge on the prevalence and distribution of risk factors impairs the planning and implementation of cardiovascular prevention programs in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. Methods and Findings Prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, abnormal lipoprotein levels, obesity, and smoking were estimated from individual-level patient data pooled from population-based surveys (1998–2007, n = 31,009) from eight LAC countries and from a national survey of the United States (US) population (1999–2004) Age and gender specific prevalence were estimated and age-gender adjusted comparisons between both populations were conducted. Prevalence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol in LAC were 5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.4, 7.9), 20.2% (95% CI: 12.5, 31), and 53.3% (95% CI: 47, 63.4), respectively. Compared to LAC region’s average, the prevalence of each risk factor tended to be lower in Peru and higher in Chile. LAC women had higher prevalence of obesity and low HDL-cholesterol than men. Obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia were more prevalent in the US population than in LAC population (31 vs. 16.1%, 16.8 vs. 8.9%, and 36.2 vs. 26.5%, respectively). However, the prevalence of low HDL-cholesterol was higher in LAC than in the US (53.3 vs. 33.7%). Conclusions Major cardiovascular risk factors are highly prevalent in LAC region, in particular low HDL-cholesterol. In addition, marked differences do exist in this prevalence profile between LAC and the US. The observed patterns of obesity-related risk factors and their current and future impact on the burden of cardiovascular diseases remain to be explained. PMID:23349785

Major cardiovascular risk factors in Latin America: a comparison with the United States. The Latin American Consortium of Studies in Obesity (LASO).

PubMed

Miranda, J Jaime; Herrera, Victor M; Chirinos, Julio A; Gómez, Luis F; Perel, Pablo; Pichardo, Rafael; González, Angel; Sánchez, José R; Ferreccio, Catterina; Aguilera, Ximena; Silva, Eglé; Oróstegui, Myriam; Medina-Lezama, Josefina; Pérez, Cynthia M; Suárez, Erick; Ortiz, Ana P; Rosero, Luis; Schapochnik, Noberto; Ortiz, Zulma; Ferrante, Daniel; Casas, Juan P; Bautista, Leonelo E

2013-01-01

Limited knowledge on the prevalence and distribution of risk factors impairs the planning and implementation of cardiovascular prevention programs in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. Prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, abnormal lipoprotein levels, obesity, and smoking were estimated from individual-level patient data pooled from population-based surveys (1998-2007, n=31,009) from eight LAC countries and from a national survey of the United States (US) population (1999-2004) Age and gender specific prevalence were estimated and age-gender adjusted comparisons between both populations were conducted. Prevalence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol in LAC were 5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.4, 7.9), 20.2% (95% CI: 12.5, 31), and 53.3% (95% CI: 47, 63.4), respectively. Compared to LAC region's average, the prevalence of each risk factor tended to be lower in Peru and higher in Chile. LAC women had higher prevalence of obesity and low HDL-cholesterol than men. Obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia were more prevalent in the US population than in LAC population (31 vs. 16.1%, 16.8 vs. 8.9%, and 36.2 vs. 26.5%, respectively). However, the prevalence of low HDL-cholesterol was higher in LAC than in the US (53.3 vs. 33.7%). Major cardiovascular risk factors are highly prevalent in LAC region, in particular low HDL-cholesterol. In addition, marked differences do exist in this prevalence profile between LAC and the US. The observed patterns of obesity-related risk factors and their current and future impact on the burden of cardiovascular diseases remain to be explained.

Risk of Progression to Hypertension in a Low-Income Mexican Population with Pre-hypertension and Normal Blood Pressure

PubMed Central

Jimenez-Corona, Aida; Lopez-Ridaura, Ruy; Stern, Michael P; Gonzalez-Villalpando, Clicerio

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND Blood pressure (BP) levels below the pre-hypertension category may be associated with the risk of developing hypertension. We estimated the incidence rates of hypertension in low-income Mexican population according to several subcategories of baseline BP within normal and pre-hypertension categories. METHODS A total of 1572 nonhypertensive men (n=632) and non-pregnant women (n=940), aged 35 to 64 years at baseline, were followed for a median of 5.8 years. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥90 mm Hg, or self-reported physician diagnosis with anti-hypertensive medications. RESULTS During follow-up, 267 subjects developed hypertension, of whom 83 were men and 184 were women. Age-adjusted incidence rate was higher in women (37.1 per 1000 person-years) than in men (23.7 per 1000 person-years). There was a significant association between BP levels at baseline and hypertension incidence even within the normal category. For the upper levels of normal SBP (110-119 mm Hg), the HR (95%CI) was 2.43 (1.50-3.93) in women and 2.44 (1.05-5.69) in men, compared with SBP <110 mm Hg. For the upper levels of normal DBP (70-79 mm Hg), the HR (95%CI) was 2.33 (1.65-3.31) in women and 1.80 (0.92-3.52) in men, compared with DBP <70 mm Hg, after adjustment for recognized predictors. CONCLUSIONS High risk of hypertension incidence was associated with levels of BP even within the normal category. This information could help define a population at high risk of progression to hypertension, in order to establish preventive measures. PMID:17765131

Estimation of Potential Population Level Effects of Contaminants on Wildlife

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loar, J.M.

2001-06-11

The objective of this project is to provide DOE with improved methods to assess risks from contaminants to wildlife populations. The current approach for wildlife risk assessment consists of comparison of contaminant exposure estimates for individual animals to literature-derived toxicity test endpoints. These test endpoints are assumed to estimate thresholds for population-level effects. Moreover, species sensitivities to contaminants is one of several criteria to be considered when selecting assessment endpoints (EPA 1997 and 1998), yet data on the sensitivities of many birds and mammals are lacking. The uncertainties associated with this approach are considerable. First, because toxicity data are notmore » available for most potential wildlife endpoint species, extrapolation of toxicity data from test species to the species of interest is required. There is no consensus on the most appropriate extrapolation method. Second, toxicity data are represented as statistical measures (e.g., NOAEL s or LOAELs) that provide no information on the nature or magnitude of effects. The level of effect is an artifact of the replication and dosing regime employed, and does not indicate how effects might increase with increasing exposure. Consequently, slight exceedance of a LOAEL is not distinguished from greatly exceeding it. Third, the relationship of toxic effects on individuals to effects on populations is poorly estimated by existing methods. It is assumed that if the exposure of individuals exceeds levels associated with impaired reproduction, then population level effects are likely. Uncertainty associated with this assumption is large because depending on the reproductive strategy of a given species, comparable levels of reproductive impairment may result in dramatically different population-level responses. This project included several tasks to address these problems: (1) investigation of the validity of the current allometric scaling approach for interspecies extrapolation an d development of new scaling models; (2) development of dose-response models for toxicity data presented in the literature; and (3) development of matrix-based population models that were coupled with dose-response models to provide realistic estimation of population-level effects for individual responses.« less

Population Survey of Knowledge about Oral Cancer and Related Factors in the Capital of Iran.

PubMed

Azimi, Somayyeh; Ghorbani, Zahra; Tennant, Marc; Kruger, Estie; Safiaghdam, Hannaneh; Rafieian, Nasrin

2017-08-24

Knowledge about oral cancer risk factors and signs is thought to improve prevention and early diagnosis, and in turn, increases survival. In this population-based survey, knowledge about oral cancer was assessed in Iran. A total of 1800 self-administered questionnaires (collecting sociodemographic data and questions regarding oral cancer risk factors and signs) were distributed through random sampling. Final scores ranged between 0 and 15 for the risk factors and 0-11 for the signs. Scores below the median indicated a low level of knowledge, scores representing the third quartile of correct answers indicated a moderate level of knowledge, and scores representing the upper quartile indicated a high level of knowledge. Statistical tests were used for analysis of knowledge level in different sociodemographic categories. A total of 1312 participants completed the questionnaires. The average of knowledge scores for risk factors was 5.3 ± 3.0 and for signs was 4.5 ± 2.9. Overall, 75 and 56% respectively were able to identify major risk factors (smoking and alcohol); 23.5% could not define any related signs and symptoms. Dividing scores into quartiles indicated that three out of four people had "low" knowledge about risk factors and 58% had "low" knowledge about signs and symptoms. Females and highly educated people had more knowledge of oral cancer. Significant difference was found between job and level of knowledge (P = 0.001). This survey revealed that public knowledge of oral cancer was not satisfactory in Iran. Efforts should be done to inform and educate people with risk factors, initial clinical presentation, and symptoms, in order to improve prevention and promote early diagnosis.

Blood pressure load does not add to ambulatory blood pressure level for cardiovascular risk stratification.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Thijs, Lutgarde; Boggia, José; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W; Kikuya, Masahiro; Björklund-Bodegård, Kristina; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Dolan, Eamon; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Malyutina, Sofia; Casiglia, Edoardo; Nikitin, Yuri; Lind, Lars; Sandoya, Edgardo; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Filipovsky, Jan; Imai, Yutaka; Ibsen, Hans; O'Brien, Eoin; Wang, Jiguang; Staessen, Jan A

2014-05-01

Experts proposed blood pressure (BP) load derived from 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings as a more accurate predictor of outcome than level, in particular in normotensive people. We analyzed 8711 subjects (mean age, 54.8 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations. We expressed BP load as percentage (%) of systolic/diastolic readings ≥135/≥85 mm Hg and ≥120/≥70 mm Hg during day and night, respectively, or as the area under the BP curve (mm Hg×h) using the same ceiling values. During a period of 10.7 years (median), 1284 participants died and 1109 experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular end point. In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of cardiovascular complications gradually increased across deciles of BP level and load (P<0.001), but BP load did not substantially refine risk prediction based on 24-hour systolic or diastolic BP level (generalized R(2) statistic ≤0.294%; net reclassification improvement ≤0.28%; integrated discrimination improvement ≤0.001%). Systolic/diastolic BP load of 40.0/42.3% or 91.8/73.6 mm Hg×h conferred a 10-year risk of a composite cardiovascular end point similar to a 24-hour systolic/diastolic BP of 130/80 mm Hg. In analyses dichotomized according to these thresholds, increased BP load did not refine risk prediction in the whole study population (R(2)≤0.051) or in untreated participants with 24-hour ambulatory normotension (R(2)≤0.034). In conclusion, BP load does not improve risk stratification based on 24-hour BP level. This also applies to subjects with normal 24-hour BP for whom BP load was proposed to be particularly useful in risk stratification.

Marginal bone level in two Danish cross-sectional population samples in 1997-1998 and 2007-2008.

PubMed

Bahrami, Golnosh; Vaeth, Michael; Wenzel, Ann; Isidor, Flemming

2018-04-12

The aim of this study was to compare the marginal bone level of two randomly selected population samples from 1997/1998 and 2007/2008, with special emphasis on the role of smoking habits and gender. Two cross-sectional randomly selected population samples [1997/1998 (N = 616) and 2007/2008 (N = 396)] were analysed with respect to the marginal bone level. The marginal bone level was measured in full-mouth intraoral radiographs. Information on smoking was gathered using questionnaires. Multiple regression analysis was used in order to adjust for correlating factors (gender, age, smoking habits and number of teeth). After adjusting for confounding factors, the population sample from 2007/2008 had on average a slightly, but statistically significantly, more reduced average marginal bone level (0.15 mm) than the population sample from 1997/1998. Men had more reduced marginal bone level than women (0.12 mm). Smokers in both population samples had more reduced marginal bone level than non-smokers (0.39 mm and 0.12 mm for 1997/1998; 0.65 mm and 0.16 mm for 2007/2008). In these populations, sampled 10 years apart, the 2007/2008 population sample had a slightly more reduced marginal bone level than the 1997/1998 population sample. Men had more reduced marginal bone level than women, and smoking is considered a major risk factor for a reduced marginal bone level.

Risk factors for mercury exposure of children in a rural mining town in northern Chile.

PubMed

Ohlander, Johan; Huber, Stella Maria; Schomaker, Michael; Heumann, Christian; Schierl, Rudolf; Michalke, Bernhard; Jenni, Oskar G; Caflisch, Jon; Muñoz, Daniel Moraga; von Ehrenstein, Ondine S; Radon, Katja

2013-01-01

Traditional gold mining is associated with mercury exposure. Especially vulnerable to its neurotoxic effects is the developing nervous system of a child. We aimed to investigate risk factors of mercury exposure among children in a rural mining town in Chile. Using a validated questionnaire distributed to the parents of the children, a priori mercury risk factors, potential exposure pathways and demographics of the children were obtained. Mercury levels were measured through analyzing fingernail samples. Logistic regression modeling the effect of risk factors on mercury levels above the 75(th) percentile were made, adjusted for potential confounders. The 288 children had a mean age of 9.6 years (SD = 1.9). The mean mercury level in the study population was 0.13 µg/g (SD 0.11, median 0.10, range 0.001-0.86 µg/g). The strongest risk factor for children's odds of high mercury levels (>75(th) percentile, 0.165 µg/g) was to play inside a house where a family member worked with mercury (OR adjusted 3.49 95% CI 1.23-9.89). Additionally, children whose parents worked in industrial gold mining had higher odds of high mercury levels than children whose parents worked in industrial copper mining or outside mining activities. Mercury exposure through small-scale gold mining might affect children in their home environments. These results may further help to convince the local population of banning mercury burning inside the households.

Association of maternal serum cadmium level during pregnancy with risk of preterm birth in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Wang, Hua; Liu, Lu; Hu, Yong-Fang; Hao, Jia-Hu; Chen, Yuan-Hua; Su, Pu-Yu; Yu, Zhen; Fu, Lin; Tao, Fang-Biao; Xu, De-Xiang

2016-09-01

Cadmium (Cd) was a developmental toxicant that induces fetal malformation and growth restriction in mice. However, epidemiological studies about the association of maternal serum Cd level with risk of preterm birth were limited. This study was to investigate whether maternal serum Cd level during pregnancy is associated with risk of preterm birth in a Chinese population. Total 3254 eligible mother-and-singleton-offspring pairs were recruited. Maternal serum Cd level was measured by GFAAS. Based on tertiles, maternal serum Cd concentration was classified as low (LCd, <0.65 μg/L), medium (MCd, 0.65-0.94 μg/L) and high (HCd, ≥0.95 μg/L). Odds ratio (OR) for preterm birth was estimated using multiple logistic regression models. Results showed the rate of preterm birth among LCd, M-Cd and HCd was 3.5%, 3.8%, and 9.4%, respectively. Subjects with HCd had a significantly higher risk for preterm birth (OR: 2.86; 95%CI: 1.95, 4.19; P < 0.001) than did those with LCd. Adjusted OR for preterm birth was 3.02 (95%CI: 2.02, 4.50; P < 0.001) among subjects with HCd compared to subjects with LCd. Taken together, the above results suggest that maternal serum Cd level during pregnancy is positively associated with risk of preterm birth. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Serum carotenoids and colorectal cancer risk: A case-control study in Guangdong, China.

PubMed

Huang, Jing; Lu, Min-Shan; Fang, Yu-Jing; Xu, Ming; Huang, Wu-Qing; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Chen, Yu-Ming; Zhang, Cai-Xia

2017-10-01

Previous epidemiological studies on the association between circulating carotenoids and the risk of colorectal cancer drew inconclusive conclusions. This study aimed to examine serum carotenoids in relation to colorectal cancer risk in a Chinese population. One case-control study beginning from July 2010, consecutively recruited 538 eligible colorectal cancer cases and 564 age (5-year interval) and sex frequency-matched controls. Serum levels of α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lycopene and lutein/zeaxanthin were detected by HPLC. Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence internal (CI) after adjusting for various confounders. Serum levels of α-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin and lycopene were found to be inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk. The adjusted ORs of the highest quartile relative to the lowest quartile serum level were 0.49 (95% CIs 0.33-0.72) for α-carotene, 0.44 (95% CIs 0.29-0.66) for β-cryptoxanthin, and 0.36 (95% CIs 0.24-0.54) for lycopene, respectively. The association between serum β-carotene, lutein/zeaxanthin and colorectal cancer risk was not statistically significant. The results indicated that the incidence of colorectal cancer was associated with lower serum levels of α-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin and lycopene among Chinese population residing in Guangdong. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Health benefit from decreasing exposure to heavy metals and metalloid after strict pollution control measures near a typical river basin area in China.

PubMed

Cao, Suzhen; Duan, Xiaoli; Ma, Yingqun; Zhao, Xiuge; Qin, Yanwen; Liu, Yan; Li, Sai; Zheng, Binghui; Wei, Fusheng

2017-10-01

The metal(loid) pollution still is a great concern due to the effects from urbanization and industrialization. While, the health risks from the toxic metal(loid)s could decrease if strict pollution control measures were adopted. However, few studies to date investigate the health risks of heavy metal(loid)s in a systematic river basin for the dependent residents, after taking pollution control measures. Thus, the contents of metal(loid)s (Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, Mn, As) in surface water along a typical river basin were investigated in this study, and the potential non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks posed to the residents were assessed. Although the soluble contents of Cu, Pb, Zn and Cd exceeded the respective thresholds in two sites located downstream the mine area, they were greatly decreased in comparison with previous contamination levels, and the soluble concentrations of all the metal(loid)s were within the relevant thresholds in the sites far away from the mining area. Moreover, the closer to the mining area, the higher the pollution levels of metal(loid)s. The total hazard index for non-carcinogenic risks of metal(loid)s were basically lower than the threshold (1) for the local population. Whereas, although the content of metal(loid)s were low (such as As), they could pose relative higher non-carcinogenic health risks. The result illustrated that pollution levels, toxicity of the contaminants and exposure behavior patterns all could contribute to the potential detrimental health risks. Additionally, the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks from ingestion exposure were ∼2-∼4 orders of magnitude higher than those from dermal contact. The total carcinogenic risks were basically lower than the maximum tolerable levels (1.0 × 10 -4 ), indicating carcinogenic risks from most areas of the river could also be accepted. Among different population groups, heavy metal(loid)s posed relative higher non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks to the children in 0-5 years old. Fortunately, the surface water in most area of this basin is safe in usage for the local population and the health risks were basically acceptable in case exposed to the target metal(loid)s, after the river basin was in the charge of strict pollution control measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular disease risk factors in relation to smoking behaviour and history: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Keto, Jaana; Ventola, Hanna; Jokelainen, Jari; Linden, Kari; Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Timonen, Markku; Ylisaukko-oja, Tero; Auvinen, Juha

2016-01-01

Objective To investigate how individual risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) (blood pressure, lipid levels, body mass index, waist and hip circumference, use of antihypertensive or hypolipidemic medication, and diagnosed diabetes) differ in people aged 46 years with different smoking behaviour and history. Methods This population-based cohort study is based on longitudinal data from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 project. Data were collected at the 31-year and 46-year follow-ups, when a total of 5038 and 5974 individuals participated in clinical examinations and questionnaires. Data from both follow-ups were available for 3548 participants. In addition to individual CVD risk factors, Framingham and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithms were used to assess the absolute risk of a CVD event within the next decade. Results The differences in individual risk factors for CVD reached statistical significance for some groups, but the differences were not consistent or clinically significant. There were no clinically significant differences in CVD risk as measured by Framingham or SCORE algorithms between never smokers, recent quitters and former smokers (7.5%, 7.4%, 8.1% for men; 3.3%, 3.0%, 3.2% for women; p<0.001). Conclusions The effect of past or present smoking on individual CVD risk parameters such as blood pressure and cholesterol seems to be of clinically minor significance in people aged 46 years. In other words, smoking seems to be above all an independent risk factor for CVD in the working-age population. Quitting smoking in working age may thus reduce calculated CVD risk nearly to the same level with people who have never smoked. PMID:27493759

Prediction of human population responses to toxic compounds by a collaborative competition.

PubMed

Eduati, Federica; Mangravite, Lara M; Wang, Tao; Tang, Hao; Bare, J Christopher; Huang, Ruili; Norman, Thea; Kellen, Mike; Menden, Michael P; Yang, Jichen; Zhan, Xiaowei; Zhong, Rui; Xiao, Guanghua; Xia, Menghang; Abdo, Nour; Kosyk, Oksana; Friend, Stephen; Dearry, Allen; Simeonov, Anton; Tice, Raymond R; Rusyn, Ivan; Wright, Fred A; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Xie, Yang; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio

2015-09-01

The ability to computationally predict the effects of toxic compounds on humans could help address the deficiencies of current chemical safety testing. Here, we report the results from a community-based DREAM challenge to predict toxicities of environmental compounds with potential adverse health effects for human populations. We measured the cytotoxicity of 156 compounds in 884 lymphoblastoid cell lines for which genotype and transcriptional data are available as part of the Tox21 1000 Genomes Project. The challenge participants developed algorithms to predict interindividual variability of toxic response from genomic profiles and population-level cytotoxicity data from structural attributes of the compounds. 179 submitted predictions were evaluated against an experimental data set to which participants were blinded. Individual cytotoxicity predictions were better than random, with modest correlations (Pearson's r < 0.28), consistent with complex trait genomic prediction. In contrast, predictions of population-level response to different compounds were higher (r < 0.66). The results highlight the possibility of predicting health risks associated with unknown compounds, although risk estimation accuracy remains suboptimal.

Resilience and risk: a demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Wilson, Ryan R.; Rode, Karyn D.; Runge, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Our modeling results suggest that harvest of polar bears is unlikely to accelerate population declines that result from declining carrying capacity caused by sea-ice loss, provided that several conditions are met: (1) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the population’s intrinsic growth rate, and the corresponding harvest level is obtained by applying this rate to an estimate of population size; (2) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the quality of population data (e.g., lower harvest when data are poor); and (3) the level of human-caused removals can be adjusted. Finally, our results suggest that stopgap measures (e.g., further reduction or cessation of harvest when the population size is less than a critical threshold) may be necessary to minimize the incremental risk associated with harvest, if environmental conditions are deteriorating rapidly. We suggest that the demographic model and approaches presented here can serve as a template for conservation planning for polar bears and other species facing similar challenges.

Cis-Regulatory Variants Affect CHRNA5 mRNA Expression in Populations of African and European Ancestry

PubMed Central

Wang, Jen-Chyong; Spiegel, Noah; Bertelsen, Sarah; Le, Nhung; McKenna, Nicholas; Budde, John P.; Harari, Oscar; Kapoor, Manav; Brooks, Andrew; Hancock, Dana; Tischfield, Jay; Foroud, Tatiana; Bierut, Laura J.; Steinbach, Joe Henry; Edenberg, Howard J.; Traynor, Bryan J.; Goate, Alison M.

2013-01-01

Variants within the gene cluster encoding α3, α5, and β4 nicotinic receptor subunits are major risk factors for substance dependence. The strongest impact on risk is associated with variation in the CHRNA5 gene, where at least two mechanisms are at work: amino acid variation and altered mRNA expression levels. The risk allele of the non-synonymous variant (rs16969968; D398N) primarily occurs on the haplotype containing the low mRNA expression allele. In populations of European ancestry, there are approximately 50 highly correlated variants in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 gene cluster and the adjacent PSMA4 gene region that are associated with CHRNA5 mRNA levels. It is not clear which of these variants contribute to the changes in CHRNA5 transcript level. Because populations of African ancestry have reduced linkage disequilibrium among variants spanning this gene cluster, eQTL mapping in subjects of African ancestry could potentially aid in defining the functional variants that affect CHRNA5 mRNA levels. We performed quantitative allele specific gene expression using frontal cortices derived from 49 subjects of African ancestry and 111 subjects of European ancestry. This method measures allele-specific transcript levels in the same individual, which eliminates other biological variation that occurs when comparing expression levels between different samples. This analysis confirmed that substance dependence associated variants have a direct cis-regulatory effect on CHRNA5 transcript levels in human frontal cortices of African and European ancestry and identified 10 highly correlated variants, located in a 9 kb region, that are potential functional variants modifying CHRNA5 mRNA expression levels. PMID:24303001

Predation Risk Shapes Social Networks in Fission-Fusion Populations

PubMed Central

Kelley, Jennifer L.; Morrell, Lesley J.; Inskip, Chloe; Krause, Jens; Croft, Darren P.

2011-01-01

Predation risk is often associated with group formation in prey, but recent advances in methods for analysing the social structure of animal societies make it possible to quantify the effects of risk on the complex dynamics of spatial and temporal organisation. In this paper we use social network analysis to investigate the impact of variation in predation risk on the social structure of guppy shoals and the frequency and duration of shoal splitting (fission) and merging (fusion) events. Our analyses revealed that variation in the level of predation risk was associated with divergent social dynamics, with fish in high-risk populations displaying a greater number of associations with overall greater strength and connectedness than those from low-risk sites. Temporal patterns of organisation also differed according to predation risk, with fission events more likely to occur over two short time periods (5 minutes and 20 minutes) in low-predation fish and over longer time scales (>1.5 hours) in high-predation fish. Our findings suggest that predation risk influences the fine-scale social structure of prey populations and that the temporal aspects of organisation play a key role in defining social systems. PMID:21912627

A health risk benchmark for the neurologic effects of styrene: comparison with NOAEL/LOAEL approach.

PubMed

Rabovsky, J; Fowles, J; Hill, M D; Lewis, D C

2001-02-01

Benchmark dose (BMD) analysis was used to estimate an inhalation benchmark concentration for styrene neurotoxicity. Quantal data on neuropsychologic test results from styrene-exposed workers [Mutti et al. (1984). American Journal of Industrial Medicine, 5, 275-286] were used to quantify neurotoxicity, defined as the percent of tested workers who responded abnormally to > or = 1, > or = 2, or > or = 3 out of a battery of eight tests. Exposure was based on previously published results on mean urinary mandelic- and phenylglyoxylic acid levels in the workers, converted to air styrene levels (15, 44, 74, or 115 ppm). Nonstyrene-exposed workers from the same region served as a control group. Maximum-likelihood estimates (MLEs) and BMDs at 5 and 10% response levels of the exposed population were obtained from log-normal analysis of the quantal data. The highest MLE was 9 ppm (BMD = 4 ppm) styrene and represents abnormal responses to > or = 3 tests by 10% of the exposed population. The most health-protective MLE was 2 ppm styrene (BMD = 0.3 ppm) and represents abnormal responses to > or = 1 test by 5% of the exposed population. A no observed adverse effect level/lowest observed adverse effect level (NOAEL/LOAEL) analysis of the same quantal data showed workers in all styrene exposure groups responded abnormally to > or = 1, > or = 2, or > or = 3 tests, compared to controls, and the LOAEL was 15 ppm. A comparison of the BMD and NOAEL/LOAEL analyses suggests that at air styrene levels below the LOAEL, a segment of the worker population may be adversely affected. The benchmark approach will be useful for styrene noncancer risk assessment purposes by providing a more accurate estimate of potential risk that should, in turn, help to reduce the uncertainty that is a common problem in setting exposure levels.

The 32-year relationship between cholesterol and dementia from midlife to late life.

PubMed

Mielke, M M; Zandi, P P; Shao, H; Waern, M; Östling, S; Guo, X; Björkelund, C; Lissner, L; Skoog, I; Gustafson, D R

2010-11-23

Cellular and animal studies suggest that hypercholesterolemia contributes to Alzheimer disease (AD). However, the relationship between cholesterol and dementia at the population level is less clear and may vary over the lifespan. The Prospective Population Study of Women, consisting of 1,462 women without dementia aged 38-60 years, was initiated in 1968-1969 in Gothenburg, Sweden. Follow-ups were conducted in 1974-1975, 1980-1981, 1992-1993, and 2000-2001. All-cause dementia was diagnosed according to DSM-III-R criteria and AD according to National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria. Cox proportional hazards regression examined baseline, time-dependent, and change in cholesterol levels in relation to incident dementia and AD among all participants. Analyses were repeated among participants who survived to the age of 70 years or older and participated in the 2000-2001 examination. Higher cholesterol level in 1968 was not associated with an increased risk of AD (highest vs lowest quartile: hazard ratio [HR] 2.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94-8.43) among those who survived to and participated in the 2000-2001 examination. While there was no association between cholesterol level and dementia when considering all participants over 32 years, a time-dependent decrease in cholesterol over the follow-up was associated with an increased risk of dementia (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.22-4.58). These data suggest that midlife cholesterol level is not associated with an increased risk of AD. However, there may be a slight risk among those surviving to an age at risk for dementia. Declining cholesterol levels from midlife to late life may better predict AD risk than levels obtained at one timepoint prior to dementia onset. Analytic strategies examining this and other risk factors across the lifespan may affect interpretation of results.

Examining gender differences for gambling engagement and gambling problems among emerging adults.

PubMed

Wong, Gloria; Zane, Nolan; Saw, Anne; Chan, Alan Ka Ki

2013-06-01

Gambling is fast becoming a public health problem in the United States, especially among emerging adults (18-25 year olds). Since 1995, rates have recently doubled with around 7-11 % of the emerging adult population having problems with gambling (Shaffer et al. in Am J Public Health 89(9):1369-1376, 1999; Cyders and Smith in Pers Individ Diff 45(6):503-508, 2008). Some states have lowered their gambling age to 18 years old; in turn, the gambling industry has recently oriented their market to target this younger population. However, little is known about the gender variation and the factors placing emerging adults at risk for getting engaged and developing problems with gambling. The purpose of the study was to determine the risk factors accounting for gender differences at the two levels of gambling involvement: engagement and problems. Mediation analyses revealed that impulsive coping and risk-taking were significant partial mediators for gender differences on engagement in gambling. Men took more risks and had lower levels of impulsive coping than women, and those who took more risks and had lower levels of impulsive coping were more likely to engage in gambling. Risk-taking and social anxiety were the significant mediators for gender differences in problems with gambling. Men took more risks and were more socially anxious than women, and greater risk-taking and more socially anxious individuals tended to have more problems with gambling. Implications for counseling preventions and intervention strategies are discussed.

Sperm competition risk generates phenotypic plasticity in ovum fertilizability.

PubMed

Firman, Renée C; Simmons, Leigh W

2013-12-07

Theory predicts that sperm competition will generate sexual conflict that favours increased ovum defences against polyspermy. A recent study on house mice has shown that ovum resistance to fertilization coevolves in response to increased sperm fertilizing capacity. However, the capacity for the female gamete to adjust its fertilizability as a strategic response to sperm competition risk has never, to our knowledge, been studied. We sourced house mice (Mus domesticus) from natural populations that differ in the level of sperm competition and sperm fertilizing capacity, and manipulated the social experience of females during their sexual development to simulate conditions of either a future 'risk' or 'no risk' of sperm competition. Consistent with coevolutionary predictions, we found lower fertilization rates in ova produced by females from a high sperm competition population compared with ova from a low sperm competition population, indicating that these populations are divergent in the fertilizability of their ova. More importantly, females exposed to a 'risk' of sperm competition produced ova that had greater resistance to fertilization than ova produced by females reared in an environment with 'no risk'. Consequently, we show that variation in sperm competition risk during development generates phenotypic plasticity in ova fertilizability, which allows females to prepare for prevailing conditions during their reproductive life.

A Probabilistic Model for Cushing's Syndrome Screening in At-Risk Populations: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

PubMed

León-Justel, Antonio; Madrazo-Atutxa, Ainara; Alvarez-Rios, Ana I; Infantes-Fontán, Rocio; Garcia-Arnés, Juan A; Lillo-Muñoz, Juan A; Aulinas, Anna; Urgell-Rull, Eulàlia; Boronat, Mauro; Sánchez-de-Abajo, Ana; Fajardo-Montañana, Carmen; Ortuño-Alonso, Mario; Salinas-Vert, Isabel; Granada, Maria L; Cano, David A; Leal-Cerro, Alfonso

2016-10-01

Cushing's syndrome (CS) is challenging to diagnose. Increased prevalence of CS in specific patient populations has been reported, but routine screening for CS remains questionable. To decrease the diagnostic delay and improve disease outcomes, simple new screening methods for CS in at-risk populations are needed. To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict CS based on clinical signs and an easy-to-use biochemical test. Observational, prospective, multicenter. Referral hospital. A cohort of 353 patients attending endocrinology units for outpatient visits. All patients were evaluated with late-night salivary cortisol (LNSC) and a low-dose dexamethasone suppression test for CS. Diagnosis or exclusion of CS. Twenty-six cases of CS were diagnosed in the cohort. A risk scoring system was developed by logistic regression analysis, and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. This risk score included clinical signs and symptoms (muscular atrophy, osteoporosis, and dorsocervical fat pad) and LNSC levels. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93, with a sensitivity of 96.2% and specificity of 82.9%. We developed a risk score to predict CS in an at-risk population. This score may help to identify at-risk patients in non-endocrinological settings such as primary care, but external validation is warranted.

Mortality associated with bilirubin levels in insurance applicants.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2009-01-01

Determine the relationship between bilirubin levels with and without other liver function test (LFT) elevations and relative mortality in life insurance applicants. By use of the Social Security Death Master File mortality was determined in 1,905,664 insurance applicants for whom blood samples were submitted to the Clinical Reference Laboratory. There were 50,174 deaths observed in this study population. Results were stratified by 3 age/sex groups: females, age <60; males, age <60; and all, age 60+. The median follow-up was 12 years. Relative mortality increased as bilirubin decreased below bilirubin levels seen for the middle 50% of the population. The known association of smoking with lower bilirubin values explained only part of the additional elevated risk at low bilirubin levels. In the absence of other LFT elevations, relative mortality remained unchanged as bilirubin increased beyond levels seen for the middle 50% of the population. When a bilirubin elevation was combined with other LFT elevations, mortality further increased only at the highest elevations of other LFTs, seen only in <2.5% of applicants. Isolated elevations of bilirubin in this healthy screening population were not associated with excess mortality but values below the midpoint were. Other investigations have suggested a cardiovascular cause may underlie the excess mortality associated with low bilirubin. In association with other LFT elevations, bilirubin elevation further increases the mortality risk only at the highest elevations of other LFTs.

Variations in sub-national road traffic fatality trends in a low-income country.

PubMed

Bhatti, Junaid A; Khoso, Ajmal Khan; Waseem, Hunniya; Khan, Uzma Rahim; Razzak, Junaid A

2013-01-01

In most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), road traffic fatality (RTF) trends are presented in aggregated form at the national level. This practice omits important information regarding RTF risk at sub-national levels. This ecological study assesses the extent of RTF variations at different sub-national levels in Pakistan, a low-income country. Based on official statistics, significant variations in three RTF indicators i.e. per population, per registered vehicles, and per crash were compared by regression analyses at two sub-national levels i.e. provincially (2000-2009) and district-wise (2004). The national RTF counts are based on data from four provinces. From 2000 to 2009, RTF per population and per registered vehicles decreased in all provinces except Balochistan. RTF per crash in Punjab decreased from 0.61 to 0.56 (beta coefficient (β) year = -0.0082, P = <0.001), whereas in Balochistan it increased from 0.40 to 0.58 (β year = 0.0708, P = <0.001) over the same period. District-level comparisons were possible only in Punjab where RTF per crash varied from 0.25 to 2.15 and correlated (β = 0.50, P = 0.003) with RTF per population. Sub-national RTF surveillance is necessary in LMICs like Pakistan in order to prioritize available resources on high-risk jurisdictions such as the Balochistan province and districts of Punjab where high RTF per population and per crash exist.

Associations of Urinary Cotinine-Verified Active and Passive Smoking with Thyroid Function: Analysis of Population-Based Nationally Representative Data.

PubMed

Kang, Jihun; Kong, Eunhee; Choi, Jongsoon

2018-05-01

The effects of active and passive smoking on thyroid function in the Korean population have not been determined. Furthermore, related research is based on self-reported smoking status, which may be inaccurate, especially among women. The present study aimed at evaluating the association between biochemically verified smoking status and thyroid function in a nationally representative Korean population. This population-based cross-sectional study included 3404 subjects without thyroid disease who were not taking thyroid medication. Smoking status was identified using self-reported data and urinary cotinine levels. Kruskal-Wallis and Jonckheere-Terpstra trend tests were performed to evaluate the association between smoking exposure and thyroid function. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the effect of smoking on subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH). Biochemically verified active and passive smoking rates were 43.4% and 23.3% among men and 10.0% and 22.9% among women, respectively. Active smokers had significantly lower iodine levels than passive smokers and nonsmokers. Active smoking was associated with decreased serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels among both sexes, although only men exhibited a dose-response relationship between increasing smoking exposure and decreasing TSH levels. Passive smoking slightly decreased TSH levels, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The risk of SCH decreased with increasing smoking exposure in the multivariate-adjusted analysis (p for trend = 0.027 among men and 0.042 among women). Active and passive smoking were associated with decreasing serum TSH levels and a lower risk of SCH in a Korean population. These associations might be related to lower urinary iodine levels in active smokers.

The Effect of Residing Altitude on Levels of High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol: A Pilot Study From the Omani Arab Population.

PubMed

Al Riyami, Nafila B; Banerjee, Yajnavalka; Al-Waili, Khalid; Rizvi, Syed G; Al-Yahyaee, Said; Hassan, Mohammed O; Albarwani, Sulayma; Al-Rasadi, Khalid; Bayoumi, Riad A

2015-07-01

Lower mortality rates from coronary heart disease and higher levels of serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) have been observed in populations residing at high altitude. However, this effect has not been investigated in Arab populations, which exhibit considerable genetic homogeneity. We assessed the relationship between residing altitude and HDL-C in 2 genetically similar Omani Arab populations residing at different altitudes. The association between the levels of HDL-C and other metabolic parameters was also investigated. The levels of HDL-C were significantly higher in the high-altitude group compared with the low-altitude group. Stepwise regression analysis showed that altitude was the most significant factor affecting HDL-C, followed by gender, serum triglycerides, and finally the 2-hour postprandial plasma glucose. This finding is consistent with previously published studies from other populations and should be taken into consideration when comparing cardiovascular risk factors in populations residing at different altitudes. © The Author(s) 2014.

Indoor air pollution in a Mexican indigenous community: evaluation of risk reduction program using biomarkers of exposure and effect.

PubMed

Torres-Dosal, Arturo; Pérez-Maldonado, Iván N; Jasso-Pineda, Yolanda; Martínez Salinas, Rebeca I; Alegría-Torres, Jorge A; Díaz-Barriga, Fernando

2008-02-15

Indoor air pollution can be an important risk factor for human health, considering that people spend more than 60% of their time indoors. Fifty percent of the world population and approximately 90% of the rural population in developing countries are using biomass as energy source. Latin America represents 12% of the global consumption of biomass; in Mexico, 27 million people use wood as an energy source. Therefore, in this study we evaluated a 3-stage risk reduction program. The stages were: 1) removal of indoor soot adhered to roofs and internal walls; 2) paving the dirt floors; and 3) introduction of a new wood stove with a metal chimney that expels smoke outdoors. The complete intervention program was applied. In 20 healthy subject residents from an indigenous community in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, we measured blood carboxyhemoglobin (% COHb), DNA damage (comet assay) in nucleated blood cells, and urinary 1-OHP levels before and after the program. Before intervention individuals had a geometric mean COHb level of 4.93% and 53% of the population presented levels above 2.5% considered a safe level. However, in all the studied individuals the levels of COHb were reduced to below 2.5% (mean level 1.0%) one month after the intervention. Moreover, when compared, DNA damage in people exposed before the intervention was higher (5.8+/-1.3 of Tail Moment) than when the program was introduced (2.8+/-0.9 of Tail Moment) (P>0.05) and a same trend was observed with urinary 1-OHP levels; 6.71+/-3.58 micromol/mol creatinine was the concentration before intervention; whereas, 4.80+/-3.29 micromol/mol creatinine was the one after the program. The results suggest that the intervention program offers an acceptable risk reduction to those families that use biomass for food cooking.

Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

PubMed

Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

2015-12-01

We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p < 0.0001 for differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion, population-level risk prediction for type 2 diabetes using readily available administrative data is feasible and has better prediction performance than classical diabetes risk prediction algorithms on very large populations with missing data. The new model enables intervention allocation at national scale quickly and accurately and recovers potentially novel risk factors at different stages before the disease onset.

Demographic consequences of terrestrial habitat loss for pool-breeding amphibians: predicting extinction risks associated with inadequate size of buffer zones.

PubMed

Harper, Elizabeth B; Rittenhouse, Tracy A G; Semlitsch, Raymond D

2008-10-01

Much of the biodiversity associated with isolated wetlands requires aquatic and terrestrial habitat to maintain viable populations. Current federal wetland regulations in the United States do not protect isolated wetlands or extend protection to surrounding terrestrial habitat. Consequently, some land managers, city planners, and policy makers at the state and local levels are making an effort to protect these wetland and neighboring upland habitats. Balancing human land-use and habitat conservation is challenging, and well-informed land-use policy is hindered by a lack of knowledge of the specific risks of varying amounts of habitat loss. Using projections of wood frog (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) populations, we related the amount of high-quality terrestrial habitat surrounding isolated wetlands to the decline and risk of extinction of local amphibian populations. These simulations showed that current state-level wetland regulations protecting 30 m or less of surrounding terrestrial habitat are inadequate to support viable populations of pool-breeding amphibians. We also found that species with different life-history strategies responded differently to the loss and degradation of terrestrial habitat. The wood frog, with a short life span and high fecundity, was most sensitive to habitat loss and isolation, whereas the longer-lived spotted salamander with lower fecundity was most sensitive to habitat degradation that lowered adult survival rates. Our model results demonstrate that a high probability of local amphibian population persistence requires sufficient terrestrial habitat, the maintenance of habitat quality, and connectivity among local populations. Our results emphasize the essential role of adequate terrestrial habitat to the maintenance of wetland biodiversity and ecosystem function and offer a means of quantifying the risks associated with terrestrial habitat loss and degradation.

Geographic risk modeling of childhood cancer relative to county-level crops, hazardous air pollutants and population density characteristics in Texas.

PubMed

Thompson, James A; Carozza, Susan E; Zhu, Li

2008-09-25

Childhood cancer has been linked to a variety of environmental factors, including agricultural activities, industrial pollutants and population mixing, but etiologic studies have often been inconclusive or inconsistent when considering specific cancer types. More specific exposure assessments are needed. It would be helpful to optimize future studies to incorporate knowledge of high-risk locations or geographic risk patterns. The objective of this study was to evaluate potential geographic risk patterns in Texas accounting for the possibility that multiple cancers may have similar geographic risks patterns. A spatio-temporal risk modeling approach was used, whereby 19 childhood cancer types were modeled as potentially correlated within county-years. The standard morbidity ratios were modeled as functions of intensive crop production, intensive release of hazardous air pollutants, population density, and rapid population growth. There was supportive evidence for elevated risks for germ cell tumors and "other" gliomas in areas of intense cropping and for hepatic tumors in areas of intense release of hazardous air pollutants. The risk for Hodgkin lymphoma appeared to be reduced in areas of rapidly growing population. Elevated spatial risks included four cancer histotypes, "other" leukemias, Central Nervous System (CNS) embryonal tumors, CNS other gliomas and hepatic tumors with greater than 95% likelihood of elevated risks in at least one county. The Bayesian implementation of the Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive model provided a flexible approach to the spatial modeling of multiple childhood cancer histotypes. The current study identified geographic factors supporting more focused studies of germ cell tumors and "other" gliomas in areas of intense cropping, hepatic cancer near Hazardous Air Pollutant (HAP) release facilities and specific locations with increased risks for CNS embryonal tumors and for "other" leukemias. Further study should be performed to evaluate potentially lower risk for Hodgkin lymphoma and malignant bone tumors in counties with rapidly growing population.

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

2011-01-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

2014-01-01

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Risk moderation of a parent and student preventive alcohol intervention by adolescent and family factors: a cluster randomized trial.

PubMed

Verdurmen, Jacqueline E E; Koning, Ina M; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; van den Eijnden, Regina J J M; Engels, Rutger C M E

2014-03-01

To examine risk moderation of an alcohol intervention targeting parents and adolescents. A cluster randomized trial including 2937 Dutch early adolescents (m=12.68years, SD=0.51) and their parents randomized over four conditions: parent intervention, student intervention, combined parent-student intervention, and control group. 152 classes of 19 high schools in The Netherlands (2006). Moderators at baseline (adolescent: gender, educational level and externalizing behavior; parent: educational level and heavy alcohol use) were used to examine the differential effects of the interventions on onset of (heavy) weekly drinking at 22-month follow-up. The combined intervention effectively delayed the onset of weekly drinking in the general population of adolescents, and was particularly effective in delaying the onset of heavy weekly drinking in a higher-risk subsample of adolescents (i.e. those attending lower levels of education and reporting higher levels of externalizing behavior). Present and previous results have established the combined intervention to be universally effective in postponing weekly alcohol use among Dutch adolescents, with an added effect on postponing heavy weekly drinking in high risk subgroups. Therefore, implementation of this intervention in the general population of schools in The Netherlands is advised. NTR649. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Blood Lead Levels and Risk Factors for Lead Exposure in a Pediatric Population in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

PubMed Central

Havens, Deborah; Pham, Minh Hong; Karr, Catherine J.

2018-01-01

Although lead recycling activities are a known risk factor for elevated blood levels in South East Asia, little is known regarding the prevalence of and risk factors for elevated blood lead levels (BLL) among the general pediatric population in Vietnam. This study is a cross-sectional evaluation of 311 children from Children’s Hospital #2 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Capillary blood lead testing was performed using the LeadCare II. Mean BLLs were 4.97 μg/dL (Standard Deviation (SD) 5.50), with 7% of the participants having levels greater than 10 μg/dL. Living in Bing Duong province (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.4–5.6.1) or the Dong Nai province (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0–5.1) and having an age greater than 12 months (OR 6.0, 95% CI 3.1–11.8) were associated with higher BLLs. The prevalence of elevated BLLs in Vietnam is consistent with other SE Asian countries. Mean BLLs in Ho Chi Minh City are markedly less than those seen in a separate study of children living near lead recycling activities. Additional evaluation is necessary to better detail potential risk factors if screening is to be implemented within Vietnam. PMID:29316694

Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

PubMed

Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

2016-02-01

In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. These predictions suggested that proposed reference benchmarks from the literature for different taxonomic groups protected all simulated species against population extinction. A generic reference benchmark of 10 μGy h(-1) protected all simulated species against 10% of the effect causing population extinction. Finally, a risk of pseudo-extinction was predicted from 2.0 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 970 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates, representing a slight but statistically significant population decline, the importance of which remains to be evaluated in natural settings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occurrence and factors associated with bovine cysticercosis recorded in cattle at meat inspection in Denmark in 2004-2011.

PubMed

Calvo-Artavia, F F; Nielsen, L R; Dahl, J; Clausen, D M; Alban, L

2013-06-01

Current EU regulation requires that every bovine carcass is examined for bovine cysticercosis (BC) at meat inspection. This is costly and might be superfluous at low BC prevalence. However, from a consumer view-point it may be important to identify and manage infected carcasses to avoid human infection. If relevant data could be effectively used to classify animals with respect to their risk of being infected, then the current meat inspection could be replaced by a more cost-effective system targeting high-risk animals. This study aimed to (1) describe the distribution of BC cases in the Danish cattle population, (2) estimate the animal level prevalence (3) provide descriptive statistics of potential risk factors for BC, and (4) determine attributable risks and fractions of selected risk factors potentially useful for a future risk-based meat inspection system. In total, 348 cases of BC were recorded among all cattle slaughtered (n=4,090,661) in Denmark between 2004 and 2011. The true animal level prevalence of BC was estimated to be 0.06%. The herd of origin of the cases were defined as the herd in which the animals spent most of their lifetimes. The detected cases were found to originate from 328 herds, with a maximum of two cases per herd indicating sporadic occurrence. Even though organic farming was associated with a higher risk (RR=1.9 in univariable analysis) of BC-positive animals being detected at slaughter, the population attributable fraction showed that only 5% of the animals with BC could be attributed to organic farming practices at the level of organic farming practiced in Denmark in the study period. Thus, organic farming status was not a suitable risk factor to use to target future risk-based meat inspection. However, 54% of the animals with BC in the cattle population were attributed to female gender. Increasing age at slaughter was also associated with high risk of BC. There may be overlaps between these effects in animals with multiple risk factors. Other underlying factors such as grazing patterns might explain the risk factors and attribution results found in this study. However, grazing practices are currently not recorded in the Danish cattle database. Therefore, animal level risk factors such as age and gender together with other risk factors such as grazing practices might be included as food chain information, required to be provided by the farmer prior to slaughter. The challenges and opportunities of this approach should be investigated further. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Daily total physical activity level and total cancer risk in men and women: results from a large-scale population-based cohort study in Japan.

PubMed

Inoue, Manami; Yamamoto, Seiichiro; Kurahashi, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2008-08-15

The impact of total physical activity level on cancer risk has not been fully clarified, particularly in non-Western, relatively lean populations. The authors prospectively examined the association between daily total physical activity (using a metabolic equivalents/day score) and subsequent cancer risk in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. A total of 79,771 general-population Japanese men and women aged 45-74 years who responded to a questionnaire in 1995-1999 were followed for total cancer incidence (4,334 cases) through 2004. Compared with subjects in the lowest quartile, increased daily physical activity was associated with a significantly decreased risk of cancer in both sexes. In men, hazard ratios for the second, third, and highest quartiles were 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90, 1.11), 0.96 (95% CI: 0.86, 1.07), and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.96), respectively (p for trend = 0.005); in women, hazard ratios were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.05), 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.96), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.97), respectively (p for trend = 0.007). The decreased risk was more clearly observed in women than in men, especially among the elderly and those who regularly engaged in leisure-time sports or physical exercise. By site, decreased risks were observed for cancers of the colon, liver, and pancreas in men and for cancer of the stomach in women. Increased daily physical activity may be beneficial in preventing cancer in a relatively lean population.

[Prevalence of Cardiovascular Risk Factors at The Population Level: A Comparison of Ambulatory Physician-Coded Claims Data With Clinical Data From A Population-Based Study].

PubMed

Angelow, Aniela; Reber, Katrin Christiane; Schmidt, Carsten Oliver; Baumeister, Sebastian Edgar; Chenot, Jean-Francois

2018-06-04

The study assesses the validity of ICD-10 coded cardiovascular risk factors in claims data using gold-standard measurements from a population-based study for arterial hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking and obesity as a reference. Data of 1941 participants (46 % male, mean age 58±13 years) of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) were linked to electronic medical records from the regional association of statutory health insurance physicians from 2008 to 2012 used for billing purposes. Clinical data from SHIP was used as a gold standard to assess the agreement with claims data for ICD-10 codes I10.- (arterial hypertension), E10.- to E14.- (diabetes mellitus), E78.- (dyslipidemia), F17.- (smoking) and E65.- to E68.- (obesity). A higher agreement between ICD-coded and clinical diagnosis was found for diabetes (sensitivity (sens) 84%, specificity (spec) 95%, positive predictive value (ppv) 80%) and hypertension (sens 72%, spec 93%, ppv 97%) and a low level of agreement for smoking (sens 18%, spec 99%, ppv 89%), obesity (sens 22%, spec 99%, ppv 99%) and dyslipidemia (sens 40%, spec 60%, ppv 70%). Depending on the investigated cardiovascular risk factor, medication, documented additional cardiovascular co-morbidities, age, sex and clinical severity were associated with the ICD-coded cardiovascular risk factor. The quality of ICD-coding in ambulatory care is highly variable for different cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes. Diagnoses were generally undercoded, but those relevant for billing were coded more frequently. Our results can be used to quantify errors in population-based estimates of prevalence based on claims data for the investigated cardiovascular risk factors. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

A TWO-WAY ROAD: RATES OF HIV INFECTION AND BEHAVIORAL RISK FACTORS AMONG DEPORTED MEXICAN LABOR MIGRANTS

PubMed Central

Rangel, M. Gudelia; Martinez-Donate, Ana P.; Hovell, Melbourne; Sipan, Carol L.; Zellner, Jennifer A.; Gonzalez-Fagoaga, Eduardo; Kelley, Norma J.; Asadi-Gonzalez, Ahmed; Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos

2012-01-01

A large number of Mexican migrants are deported to Mexico and released in the North Mexican border region every year. Despite their volume and high vulnerability, little is known about the level of HIV infection and related risk behaviors among this hard-to-reach population. We conducted a cross-sectional, probability survey with deported Mexican migrants in Tijuana, Mexico (N=693) and estimated levels of HIV infection and behavioral risk factors among this migrant flow. The sample and population estimated rates of HIV for deported males were 1.23% and 0.80%, respectively. No positive cases were found among the female sample. We found high lifetime rates of reported sexually transmitted infections (22.3%) and last 12-months rates of unprotected sex (63.0%), sex with multiple sexual partners (18.1%), casual partners (25.7%), and sex workers (8.6%), compared to U.S. and Mexico adults. HIV prevention, testing, and treatment programs for this large, vulnerable, and transnational population need to be implemented in both the U.S. and Mexico. PMID:22562390

Cardiovascular Disease Susceptibility and Resistance in Circumpolar Inuit Populations.

PubMed

Tvermosegaard, Maria; Dahl-Petersen, Inger K; Nielsen, Nina Odgaard; Bjerregaard, Peter; Jørgensen, Marit Eika

2015-09-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major public health issue in indigenous populations in the Arctic. These diseases have emerged concomitantly with profound social changes over the past 60 years. The aim of this study was to summarize the literature on CVD risk among Arctic Inuit. Literature on prevalence, incidence, and time trends for CVD and its risk factors in Arctic Inuit populations was reviewed. Most evidence supports a similar incidence of coronary heart disease and a higher incidence of cerebrovascular disease among Arctic Inuit than seen in western populations. Factors that may increase CVD risk include aging of the population, genetic susceptibility, and a rapid increase in obesity, diabetes, and hypertension in parallel with decreasing physical activity and deterioration of the lipid profile. In contrast, and of great importance, there has been a decrease in smoking and alcohol intake (at least documented in Greenland), and contaminant levels are declining. Although there have been marked socioeconomic and dietary changes, it remains unsolved and to some extent controversial how this may have influenced cardiovascular risk among Arctic Inuit. The increase in life expectancy, in combination with improved prognosis for patients with manifest CVD, will inevitably lead to a large increase in absolute numbers of individuals affected by CVD in Arctic Inuit populations, exacerbated by the rise in most CVD risk factors over the past decades. For preventive purposes and for health care planning, it is crucial to carefully monitor disease incidence and trends in risk factors in these vulnerable Arctic populations. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A genetic study and meta-analysis of the genetic predisposition of prostate cancer in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Marzec, Jacek; Mao, Xueying; Li, Meiling; Wang, Meilin; Feng, Ninghan; Gou, Xin; Wang, Guomin; Sun, Zan; Xu, Jianfeng; Xu, Hua; Zhang, Xiaoping; Zhao, Shan-Chao; Ren, Guoping; Yu, Yongwei; Wu, Yudong; Wu, Ji; Xue, Yao; Zhou, Bo; Zhang, Yanling; Xu, Xingxing; Li, Jie; He, Weiyang; Benlloch, Sara; Ross-Adams, Helen; Chen, Li; Li, Jucong; Hong, Yingqia; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Cui, Xingang; Hou, Jianguo; Guo, Jianming; Xu, Lei; Yin, Changjun; Zhou, Yuanping; Neal, David E; Oliver, Tim; Cao, Guangwen; Zhang, Zhengdong; Easton, Douglas F; Chelala, Claude; Al Olama, Ali Amin; Eeles, Rosalind A; Zhang, Hongwei; Lu, Yong-Jie

2016-04-19

Prostate cancer predisposition has been extensively investigated in European populations, but there have been few studies of other ethnic groups. To investigate prostate cancer susceptibility in the under-investigated Chinese population, we performed single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array analysis on a cohort of Chinese cases and controls and then meta-analysis with data from the existing Chinese prostate cancer genome-wide association study (GWAS). Genotyping 211,155 SNPs in 495 cases and 640 controls of Chinese ancestry identified several new suggestive Chinese prostate cancer predisposition loci. However, none of them reached genome-wide significance level either by meta-analysis or replication study. The meta-analysis with the Chinese GWAS data revealed that four 8q24 loci are the main contributors to Chinese prostate cancer risk and the risk alleles from three of them exist at much higher frequencies in Chinese than European populations. We also found that several predisposition loci reported in Western populations have different effect on Chinese men. Therefore, this first extensive single-nucleotide polymorphism study of Chinese prostate cancer in comparison with European population indicates that four loci on 8q24 contribute to a great risk of prostate cancer in a considerable large proportion of Chinese men. Based on those four loci, the top 10% of the population have six- or two-fold prostate cancer risk compared with men of the bottom 10% or median risk respectively, which may facilitate the design of prostate cancer genetic risk screening and prevention in Chinese men. These findings also provide additional insights into the etiology and pathogenesis of prostate cancer.

Simulated effects of recruitment variability, exploitation, and reduced habitat area on the muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

2007-01-01

The genetically unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabiting Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, is potentially at risk for loss of genetic variability and long-term viability. Shoepack Lake has been subject to dramatic surface area changes from the construction of an outlet dam by beavers Castor canadensis and its subsequent failure. We simulated the long-term dynamics of this population in response to recruitment variation, increased exploitation, and reduced habitat area. We then estimated the effective population size of the simulated population and evaluated potential threats to long-term viability, based on which we recommend management actions to help preserve the long-term viability of the population. Simulations based on the population size and habitat area at the beginning of a companion study resulted in an effective population size that was generally above the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability, except when fishing mortality was increased. Simulations based on the reduced habitat area after the beaver dam failure and our assumption of a proportional reduction in population size resulted in an effective population size that was generally below the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability. Our results identified two potential threats to the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population, reduction in habitat area and exploitation. Increased exploitation can be prevented through traditional fishery management approaches such as the adoption of no-kill, barbless hook, and limited entry regulations. Maintenance of the greatest possible habitat area and prevention of future habitat area reductions will require maintenance of the outlet dam built by beavers. Our study should enhance the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population and illustrates a useful approach for other unique populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Molecular prevalence of Chlamydia and Chlamydia-like bacteria in Tunisian domestic ruminant farms and their influencing risk factors.

PubMed

Barkallah, M; Jribi, H; Ben Slima, A; Gharbi, Y; Mallek, Z; Gautier, M; Fendri, I; Gdoura, R

2018-04-01

Chlamydia and Chlamydia-like bacteria are well known to infect several organisms and may cause a wide range of diseases, particularly in ruminants. To gain insight into the prevalence and diversity of these intracellular bacteria, we applied a pan-Chlamydiales real-time PCR to 1,134 veterinary samples taken from 130 Tunisian ruminant herds. The true adjusted animal population-level prevalence was 12.9% in cattle, against 8.7% in sheep. In addition, the true adjusted herd-level prevalence of Chlamydiae was 80% in cattle and 25.5% in sheep. Chlamydiales from three family-level lineages were detected indicating a high biodiversity of Chlamydiales in ruminant herds. Our results showed that Parachlamydia acanthamoebae could be responsible for bovine and ovine chlamydiosis in central-eastern Tunisia. Multivariable logistic regression analysis at the animal population level indicated that strata and digestive disorders variables were the important risk factors of bovine and ovine chlamydiosis. However, origin and age variables were found to be associated with bovine and ovine chlamydiosis, respectively. At the herd level, risk factors for Chlamydia positivity were as follows: abortion and herd size for cattle against breeding system, cleaning frequency, quarantine, use of disinfectant and floor type for sheep. Paying attention to these risk factors will help improvement of control programs against this harmful zoonotic disease. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development

PubMed Central

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Loss, Scott R.; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity. PMID:26963254

Prioritizing avian species for their risk of population-level consequences from wind energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Loss, Scott; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity.

Quantifying the severity of hurricanes on extinction probabilities of a primate population: Insights into "Island" extirpations.

PubMed

Ameca y Juárez, Eric I; Ellis, Edward A; Rodríguez-Luna, Ernesto

2015-07-01

Long-term studies quantifying impacts of hurricane activity on growth and trajectory of primate populations are rare. Using a 14-year monitored population of Alouatta palliata mexicana as a study system, we developed a modeling framework to assess the relative contribution of hurricane disturbance and two types of human impacts, habitat loss, and hunting, on quasi-extinction risk. We found that the scenario with the highest level of disturbance generated a 21% increase in quasi-extinction risk by 40 years compared to scenarios of intermediate disturbance, and around 67% increase relative to that found in low disturbance scenarios. We also found that the probability of reaching quasi-extinction due to human disturbance alone was below 1% by 40 years, although such scenarios reduced population size by 70%, whereas the risk of quasi-extinction ranged between 3% and 65% for different scenarios of hurricane severity alone, in absence of human impacts. Our analysis moreover found that the quasi-extinction risk driven by hunting and hurricane disturbance was significantly lower than the quasi-extinction risk posed by human-driven habitat loss and hurricane disturbance. These models suggest that hurricane disturbance has the potential to exceed the risk posed by human impacts, and, in particular, to substantially increase the speed of the extinction vortex driven by habitat loss relative to that driven by hunting. Early mitigation of habitat loss constituted the best method for reducing quasi-extinction risk: the earlier habitat loss is halted, the less vulnerable the population becomes to hurricane disturbance. By using a well-studied population of A. p. mexicana, we help understand the demographic impacts that extreme environmental disturbance can trigger on isolated populations of taxa already endangered in other systems where long-term demographic data are not available. For those experiencing heavy anthropogenic pressure and lacking sufficiently evolved coping strategies against unpredictable environmental disturbance, the risk of population extinction can be exacerbated. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Preventable risk factors for noncommunicable diseases in rural Indonesia: prevalence study using WHO STEPS approach.

PubMed Central

Ng, Nawi; Stenlund, Hans; Bonita, Ruth; Hakimi, Mohammad; Wall, Stig; Weinehall, Lars

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To gain a better understanding of the health transition in Indonesia, we sought to describe the prevalence and distribution of risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and to identify the risk-factor burden among a rural population and an urban population. METHODS: Using the protocol of the WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance (STEPS), risk factors for noncommunicable diseases were determined for 1502 men and 1461 women aged 15-74 years at the Purworejo Demographic Surveillance Site in 2001. FINDINGS: Smoking prevalence was high among men (913/1539; weighted percentage=53.9.%) in both rural and urban populations; it was almost non-existent among women. A higher proportion of the urban population and the richest quintile of the rural population had high blood pressure and were classified as being overweight or obese when compared with the poorest quintile of the rural population. Those classified as being in the richest quintile who lived in the rural area were 1.5 times more likely to have raised blood pressure and 8 times more likely to be overweight than those classified as being in the poorest quintile and living in the rural area. Clustering of risk factors was higher among those classified as being in the richest quintile of those living in the rural area compared with those classified as being in the poorest quintile; and the risks of clustering were just 20-30% lower compared with the urban population. CONCLUSION: Both the rural and urban populations in Purworejo face an unequally distributed burden of risk factors for noncommunicable diseases. The burden among the most well-off group in the rural area has already reached a level similar to that found in the urban area. The implementation of the WHO STEPS approach was feasible, and it provides a comprehensive picture of the burden of risk factors, allowing appropriate health interventions to be implemented to address health inequities. PMID:16628304

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

PubMed

Beston, Julie A; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Loss, Scott R; Johnson, Douglas H

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity.

Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

PubMed

Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

2014-10-01

Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Chronic diseases are not being managed effectively in either high-risk or low-risk populations in South Africa.

PubMed

Brand, Martin; Woodiwiss, Angela J; Michel, Frederic; Booysens, Hendrik L; Majane, Olebogeng H I; Maseko, Muzi J; Veller, Martin G; Norton, Gavin R

2013-07-29

Primary healthcare is the foundation of a country's healthcare system. Without an efficient and cost-effective programme, the level of healthcare offered across all levels of health management is adversely affected. To analyse the effectiveness of the management of hypertension and diabetes mellitus (DM) among two distinct patient populations, one with significant cardiovascular risk factors and the other without. We performed a case control study of a high-risk group of patients presenting with chronic critical limb ischaemia (CLI) to the Divisions of Vascular Surgery at Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital and Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital, and a randomly selected group of 'healthy' community participants from Johannesburg's South Western Townships (Soweto). We assessed 217 patients with CLI and 1 030 participants from the community. We assessed the number of patients who were not achieving their therapeuatic targets, among those known to be hypertensive (CLI: 44.7%; community: 59.9%) and diabetic (CLI: 83.5%; community: 66%). Undiagnosed diabetes affected 10.8% of patients with CLI and 11% of the community sample. Traditional vascular risk factors are managed poorly at both primary healthcare and at tertiary care levels. There is a need to identify factors that will address this issue.

Effects of the Communities That Care Model in Pennsylvania on Change in Adolescent Risk and Problem Behaviors

PubMed Central

Jones, Damon; Greenberg, Mark T.; Osgood, D. Wayne; Bontempo, Daniel

2015-01-01

Despite the public health burden of adolescent substance use, delinquency, and other problem behavior, few comprehensive models of disseminating evidence-based prevention programs to communities have demonstrated positive youth outcomes at a population level, capacity to maintain program fidelity, and sustainability. We examined whether the Communities That Care (CTC; Hawkins and Catalano 1992) model had a positive impact on risk/protective factors and academic and behavioral outcomes among adolescents in a quasi-experimental effectiveness study. We conducted a longitudinal study of CTC in Pennsylvania utilizing biannual surveillance data collected through anonymous in-school student surveys. We utilized multilevel models to examine CTC impact on change in risk/protective factors, grades, delinquency, and substance use over time. Youth in CTC communities demonstrated less growth in delinquency, but not substance use, than youth in non-CTC communities. Levels of risk factors increased more slowly, and protective factors and academic performance decreased more slowly, among CTC community grade-cohorts that were exposed to evidence-based, universal prevention programs than comparison grade cohorts. Community coalitions can affect adolescent risk and protective behaviors at a population level when evidence-based programs are utilized. CTC represents an effective model for disseminating such programs. PMID:20020209

Predictors of short-term mortality, cognitive and physical decline in older adults in northwest Russia: a population-based prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2017-08-01

The classical phenotype, accumulated deficit model and self-report approach of frailty were found not useful in older adults in northwest Russia. More research is needed to identify predictors of adverse outcomes in this population. The aim of this study is to identify predictors of mortality, autonomy and cognitive decline in a population that is characterized by a high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rate. A population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals 65+. Anthropometry, medical history nutritional status were recorded. An evaluation of cognitive, physical and autonomy function, spirometry, and laboratory tests were performed. The total follow-up was 5 years. Multiple imputation, backward stepwise Cox regression analysis, C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis and the bootstrapping techniques were used to analyze the data. We found that the combination of increasing age, male sex, low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s and anemia was associated with mortality for people 65+. The substitution of anemia with anemia + high level of C-reactive protein (hCRP) and the addition of high brain natriuretic peptide (hBNP) levels improved the classification of older persons at risk for mortality. The combination of low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s, anemia with hCRP levels and hBNP identified older persons at a higher risk for mortality. These predictors may be used for the development of a prediction model to detect older people who are at risk for adverse health outcomes in northwest Russia.

Does sufficient evidence exist to support a causal association between vitamin D status and cardiovascular disease risk? An assessment using Hill's criteria for causality.

PubMed

Weyland, Patricia G; Grant, William B; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-09-02

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor.

Plasma free amino acid profiles evaluate risk of metabolic syndrome, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension in a large Asian population.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Natsu; Mahbub, M H; Takahashi, Hidekazu; Hase, Ryosuke; Ishimaru, Yasutaka; Sunagawa, Hiroshi; Amano, Hiroki; Kobayashi-Miura, Mikiko; Kanda, Hideyuki; Fujita, Yasuyuki; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Mai; Kikuchi, Shinya; Ikeda, Atsuko; Takasu, Mariko; Kageyama, Naoko; Nakamura, Mina; Tanabe, Tsuyoshi

2017-04-07

Recently, the association of plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile and lifestyle-related diseases has been reported. However, few studies have been reported in large Asian populations, about the usefulness of PFAAs for evaluating disease risks. We examined the ability of PFAA profiles to evaluate lifestyle-related diseases in so far the largest Asian population. We examined plasma concentrations of 19 amino acids in 8589 Japanese subjects, and determined the association with variables associated with obesity, blood glucose, lipid, and blood pressure. We also evaluated the PFAA indexes that reflect visceral fat obesity and insulin resistance. The contribution of single PFAA level and relevant PFAA indexes was also examined in the risk assessment of lifestyle-related diseases. Of the 19 amino acids, branched-chain amino acids and aromatic amino acids showed association with obesity and lipid variables. The PFAA index related to visceral fat obesity showed relatively higher correlation with variables than that of any PFAA. In the evaluation of lifestyle-related disease risks, the odds ratios of the PFAA index related to visceral fat obesity or insulin resistance with the diseases were higher than most of those of individual amino acid levels even after adjusting for potential confounding factors. The association pattern of the indexes and PFAA with each lifestyle-related disease was distinct. We confirmed the usefulness of PFAA profiles and indexes as markers for evaluating the risks of lifestyle-related diseases, including diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome, dyslipidemia, and hypertension in a large Asian population.

Interventions addressing risk factors of ischaemic heart disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review.

PubMed

Ebireri, Jennifer; Aderemi, Adewale V; Omoregbe, Nicholas; Adeloye, Davies

2016-07-05

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is currently ranked eighth among the leading causes of deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). Yet, effective population-wide preventive measures targeting risks in the region are still largely unavailable. We aimed to review population-wide and individual-level interventions addressing risk factors of IHD among adults in sSA. A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and AJOL was conducted to identify studies focusing on population-wide and individual-level interventions targeting risks of IHD among adults in sSA. We conducted a detailed synthesis of basic findings of selected studies. A total of 2311 studies were identified, with only 9 studies meeting our selection criteria. 3 broad interventions were identified: dietary modifications, physical activity and community-based health promotion measures on tobacco and alcohol cessation. 3 studies reported significant reduction in blood pressure (BP), and another study reported statistically significant reduction in mean total cholesterol. Other outcome measures observed ranged from mild to no reduction in BP, blood glucose, body mass index and total cholesterol, respectively. We cannot specify with all certainty contextually feasible interventions that can be effective in modifying IHD risk factors in population groups across sSA. We recommend more research on IHD, particularly on the understanding of the burden, geared towards developing and/or strengthening preventive and treatment interventions for the disease in sSA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Fibrinogen and associated risk factors in a high-risk population: urban Indigenous Australians, the DRUID Study.

PubMed

Maple-Brown, Louise J; Cunningham, Joan; Nandi, Nirjhar; Hodge, Allison; O'Dea, Kerin

2010-10-29

Epidemiological evidence suggests that fibrinogen and CRP are associated with coronary heart disease risk. High CRP in Indigenous Australians has been reported in previous studies including our 'Diabetes and Related diseases in Urban Indigenous population in Darwin region' (DRUID) Study. We studied levels of fibrinogen and its cross-sectional relationship with traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors in an urban Indigenous Australian cohort. Fibrinogen data were available from 287 males and 628 females (aged ≥ 15 years) from the DRUID study. Analysis was performed for associations with the following risk factors: diabetes, HbA1c, age, BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, total cholesterol, triglyceride, HDL cholesterol, C-reactive protein, homocysteine, blood pressure, heart rate, urine ACR, smoking status, alcohol abstinence. Fibrinogen generally increased with age in both genders; levels by age group were higher than those previously reported in other populations, including Native Americans. Fibrinogen was higher in those with than without diabetes (4.24 vs 3.56 g/L, p < 0.001). After adjusting for age and sex, the following were significantly associated with fibrinogen: BMI, waist, waist-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, fasting triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, HbA1c, CRP, ACR and alcohol abstinence. On multivariate regression (age and sex-adjusted) CRP and HbA1c were significant independent predictors of fibrinogen, explaining 27% of its variance; CRP alone explained 25% of fibrinogen variance. On factor analysis, both CRP and fibrinogen clustered with obesity in women (this factor explained 20% of variance); but in men, CRP clustered with obesity (factor explained 18% of variance) whilst fibrinogen clustered with HbA1c and urine ACR (factor explained 13% of variance). Fibrinogen is associated with traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors in this urban Indigenous cohort and may be a useful biomarker of CVD in this high-risk population. The apparent different associations of fibrinogen with cardiovascular disease risk markers in men and women should be explored further.

Avoiding Cancer Risk Information

PubMed Central

Emanuel, Amber S.; Kiviniemi, Marc T.; Howell, Jennifer L.; Hay, Jennifer L.; Waters, Erika A.; Orom, Heather; Shepperd, James A.

2015-01-01

RATIONALE Perceived risk for health problems such as cancer is a central construct in many models of health decision making and a target for behavior change interventions. However, some portion of the population actively avoids cancer risk information. The prevalence of, explanations for, and consequences of such avoidance are not well understood. OBJECTIVE We examined the prevalence and demographic and psychosocial correlates of cancer risk information avoidance preference in a nationally representative sample. We also examined whether avoidance of cancer risk information corresponds with avoidance of cancer screening. RESULTS Based on our representative sample, 39% of the population indicated that they agreed or strongly agreed that they would “rather not know [their] chance of getting cancer.” This preference was stronger among older participants, female participants, and participants with lower levels of education. Preferring to avoid cancer risk information was stronger among participants who agreed with the beliefs that everything causes cancer, that there’s not much one can do to prevent cancer, and that there are too many recommendations to follow. Finally, the preference to avoid cancer risk information was associated with lower levels of screening for colon cancer. CONCLUSION These findings suggest that cancer risk information avoidance is a multi-determined phenomenon that is associated with demographic characteristics and psychosocial individual differences and also relates to engagement in cancer screening. PMID:26560410

Is the risk of illness through consuming vegetables irrigated with reclaimed wastewater different for different population groups?

PubMed

Hamilton, A J; Stagnitti, F S; Premier, R; Boland, A M

2006-01-01

The use of reclaimed wastewater for irrigation of horticultural crops is commonplace in many parts of the world and is likely to increase. Concerns about risks to human health arising from such practice, especially with respect to infection with microbial pathogens, are common. Several factors need to be considered when attempting to quantify the risk posed to a population, such as the concentration of pathogens in the source water, water treatment efficiency, the volume of water coming into contact with the crop, and the die-off rate of pathogens in the environment. Another factor, which has received relatively less attention, is the amount of food consumed. Plainly, higher consumption rates place one at greater risk of becoming infected. The amount of vegetables consumed is known to vary among ethic groups. We use Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Modelling (QMRA) to see if certain ethnic groups are exposed to higher risks by virtue of their consumption behaviour. The results suggest that despite the disparities in consumption rates by different ethnic groups they generally all faced comparable levels of risks. We conclude by suggesting that QMRA should be used to assess the relative levels of risk faced by groups based on divisions other than ethnicity, such as those with compromised immune systems.

Sleep Duration and Diabetes Risk: Population Trends and Potential Mechanisms.

PubMed

Grandner, Michael A; Seixas, Azizi; Shetty, Safal; Shenoy, Sundeep

2016-11-01

Sleep is important for regulating many physiologic functions that relate to metabolism. Because of this, there is substantial evidence to suggest that sleep habits and sleep disorders are related to diabetes risk. In specific, insufficient sleep duration and/or sleep restriction in the laboratory, poor sleep quality, and sleep disorders such as insomnia and sleep apnea have all been associated with diabetes risk. This research spans epidemiologic and laboratory studies. Both physiologic mechanisms such as insulin resistance, decreased leptin, and increased ghrelin and inflammation and behavioral mechanisms such as increased food intake, impaired decision-making, and increased likelihood of other behavioral risk factors such as smoking, sedentary behavior, and alcohol use predispose to both diabetes and obesity, which itself is an important diabetes risk factor. This review describes the evidence linking sleep and diabetes risk at the population and laboratory levels.

Increased prolactin levels are associated with impaired processing speed in subjects with early psychosis.

PubMed

Montalvo, Itziar; Gutiérrez-Zotes, Alfonso; Creus, Marta; Monseny, Rosa; Ortega, Laura; Franch, Joan; Lawrie, Stephen M; Reynolds, Rebecca M; Vilella, Elisabet; Labad, Javier

2014-01-01

Hyperprolactinaemia, a common side effect of some antipsychotic drugs, is also present in drug-naïve psychotic patients and subjects at risk for psychosis. Recent studies in non-psychiatric populations suggest that increased prolactin may have negative effects on cognition. The aim of our study was to explore whether high plasma prolactin levels are associated with poorer cognitive functioning in subjects with early psychoses. We studied 107 participants: 29 healthy subjects and 78 subjects with an early psychosis (55 psychotic disorders with <3 years of illness, 23 high-risk subjects). Cognitive assessment was performed with the MATRICS Cognitive Consensus Cognitive Battery, and prolactin levels were determined as well as total cortisol levels in plasma. Psychopathological status was assessed and the use of psychopharmacological treatments (antipsychotics, antidepressants, benzodiazepines) recorded. Prolactin levels were negatively associated with cognitive performance in processing speed, in patients with a psychotic disorder and high-risk subjects. In the latter group, increased prolactin levels were also associated with impaired reasoning and problem solving and poorer general cognition. In a multiple linear regression analysis conducted in both high-risk and psychotic patients, controlling for potential confounders, prolactin and benzodiazepines were independently related to poorer cognitive performance in the speed of processing domain. A mediation analysis showed that both prolactin and benzodiazepine treatment act as mediators of the relationship between risperidone/paliperidone treatment and speed of processing. These results suggest that increased prolactin levels are associated with impaired processing speed in early psychosis. If these results are confirmed in future studies, strategies targeting reduction of prolactin levels may improve cognition in this population.

Higher migraine risk in healthcare professionals than in general population: a nationwide population-based cohort study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Kuo, Wan-Yin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Weng, Shih-Feng; Lin, Hung-Jung; Su, Shih-Bin; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Guo, How-Ran; Hsu, Chien-Chin

2015-01-01

High stress levels and shift work probably trigger migraine in healthcare professionals (HCPs). However, the migraine risk differences between HCPs and the general population is unknown. This nationwide population-based cohort study used Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. Physicians (50,226), nurses (122,357), and other HCPs (pharmacists, technicians, dietitians, rehabilitation therapists, social workers, etc.) (45,736) were enrolled for the study cohort, and randomly selected non-HCPs (218,319) were enrolled for the comparison cohort. Conditional logistical regression analysis was used to compare the migraine risks. Comparisons between HCPs and between physician specialties were also done. Physicians, nurses, and other HCPs had higher migraine risks than did the general population (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.672; 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.468-1.905, AOR: 1.621; 95 % CI: 1.532-1.714, and AOR: 1.254; 95 % CI: 1.124-1.399, respectively) after stroke, hypertension, epilepsy, anxiety, depression, and insomnia had been adjusted for. Nurses and physicians had higher migraine risks than did other HCPs (AOR: 1.303; 95 % CI: 1.206-1.408, and AOR: 1.193; 95 % CI: 1.069-1.332, respectively). Obstetricians and gynecologists had a lower migraine risk than did other physician specialists (AOR: 0.550; 95 % CI: 0.323-0.937). HCPs in Taiwan had a higher migraine risk than did the general population. Heavy workloads, emotional stress, and rotating night shift sleep disturbances appear to be the most important risk factors. These findings should provide an important reference for promoting occupational health in HCPs in Taiwan.

Maternal and Birth Characteristics and Childhood Embryonal Solid Tumors: A Population-Based Report from Brazil.

PubMed

de Paula Silva, Neimar; de Souza Reis, Rejane; Garcia Cunha, Rafael; Pinto Oliveira, Júlio Fernando; Santos, Marceli de Oliveira; Pombo-de-Oliveira, Maria S; de Camargo, Beatriz

2016-01-01

Several maternal and birth characteristics have been reported to be associated with an increased risk of many childhood cancers. Our goal was to evaluate the risk of childhood embryonal solid tumors in relation to pre- and perinatal characteristics. A case-cohort study was performed using two population-based datasets, which were linked through R software. Tumors were classified as central nervous system (CNS) or non-CNS-embryonal (retinoblastoma, neuroblastoma, renal tumors, germ cell tumors, hepatoblastoma and soft tissue sarcoma). Children aged <6 years were selected. Adjustments were made for potential confounders. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed by unconditional logistic regression analysis using SPSS. Males, high maternal education level, and birth anomalies were independent risk factors. Among children diagnosed older than 24 months of age, cesarean section (CS) was a significant risk factor. Five-minute Apgar ≤8 was an independent risk factor for renal tumors. A decreasing risk with increasing birth order was observed for all tumor types except for retinoblastoma. Among children with neuroblastoma, the risk decreased with increasing birth order (OR = 0.82 (95% CI 0.67-1.01)). Children delivered by CS had a marginally significantly increased OR for all tumors except retinoblastoma. High maternal education level showed a significant increase in the odds for all tumors together, CNS tumors, and neuroblastoma. This evidence suggests that male gender, high maternal education level, and birth anomalies are risk factors for childhood tumors irrespective of the age at diagnosis. Cesarean section, birth order, and 5-minute Apgar score were risk factors for some tumor subtypes.

An Unexpected Effect of Proton Pump Inhibitors: Elevation of the Cardiovascular Risk Factor ADMA

PubMed Central

Ghebremariam, Yohannes T.; LePendu, Paea; Lee, Jerry C.; Erlanson, Daniel A.; Slaviero, Anna; Shah, Nigam H.; Leiper, James; Cooke, John P.

2013-01-01

Background Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are gastric acid suppressing agents widely prescribed for the treatment of gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD). Recently, several studies in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) have raised the concern that use of PPIs in these patients may increase their risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The mechanism of this possible adverse effect is not known. Whether the general population might also be at risk has not been addressed. Methods and Results Plasma ADMA is an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase (NOS). Elevated plasma ADMA is associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease, likely due to its attenuation of the vasoprotective effects of endothelial NOS. We find that PPIs elevate plasma asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) level and reduce nitric oxide (NO) levels and endothelium-dependent vasodilation in a murine model and ex vivo human tissues. PPIs increase ADMA because they bind to, and inhibit dimethylarginine dimethylaminohydrolase (DDAH), the enzyme that degrades ADMA. Conclusions We present a plausible biological mechanism to explain the association of PPIs with increased MACE in patients with unstable coronary syndromes. Of concern, this adverse mechanism is also likely to extend to the general population using PPIs. This finding compels additional clinical investigations and pharmacovigilance directed toward understanding the cardiovascular risk associated with use of the PPIs in the general population. PMID:23825361

Evolving Use of Natriuretic Peptides as Part of Strategies for Heart Failure Prevention.

PubMed

McDonald, Ken; Wilkinson, Mark

2017-01-01

Heart failure (HF) remains one of the major cardiovascular challenges to the Western world. Once established, HF is characterized by compromised life expectancy and quality of life with considerable dependence on hospital care for episodic clinical deterioration. Much is understood about the risk factors that predispose to the development of HF. With such a broad range of factors, it is clear that there is a large population at risk, potentially in excess of 25% of the adult population. Therein lies the major challenge at the outset of our efforts to prevent HF. With such a large population at risk, how do we develop an effective prevention strategy? HF prevention requires a multimodal approach. In this review, we focus primarily on the role of natriuretic peptide (NP) as a tool in a prevention strategy. Prevention of HF is a major public health challenge, underlined by the concerning epidemiological trends, the associated costs, and the continued difficulty to find effective therapies for the growing number of patients with preserved systolic function HF. Population-based approaches focusing on lifestyle and risk factor control have made some impact but not to a satisfactory level and also tend to result in a uniform approach across a population with different risk profiles. Individualizing risk is therefore required, with emerging data indicating that NP-guided risk stratification and intervention can reduce downstream incident HF and other cardiovascular events. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Modern Prescription Theory and Application: Realistic Expectations for Speech Recognition With Hearing Aids

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

A major decision at the time of hearing aid fitting and dispensing is the amount of amplification to provide listeners (both adult and pediatric populations) for the appropriate compensation of sensorineural hearing impairment across a range of frequencies (e.g., 160–10000 Hz) and input levels (e.g., 50–75 dB sound pressure level). This article describes modern prescription theory for hearing aids within the context of a risk versus return trade-off and efficient frontier analyses. The expected return of amplification recommendations (i.e., generic prescriptions such as National Acoustic Laboratories—Non-Linear 2, NAL-NL2, and Desired Sensation Level Multiple Input/Output, DSL m[i/o]) for the Speech Intelligibility Index (SII) and high-frequency audibility were traded against a potential risk (i.e., loudness). The modeled performance of each prescription was compared one with another and with the efficient frontier of normal hearing sensitivity (i.e., a reference point for the most return with the least risk). For the pediatric population, NAL-NL2 was more efficient for SII, while DSL m[i/o] was more efficient for high-frequency audibility. For the adult population, NAL-NL2 was more efficient for SII, while the two prescriptions were similar with regard to high-frequency audibility. In terms of absolute return (i.e., not considering the risk of loudness), however, DSL m[i/o] prescribed more outright high-frequency audibility than NAL-NL2 for either aged population, particularly, as hearing loss increased. Given the principles and demonstrated accuracy of desensitization (reduced utility of audibility with increasing hearing loss) observed at the group level, additional high-frequency audibility beyond that of NAL-NL2 is not expected to make further contributions to speech intelligibility (recognition) for the average listener. PMID:24253361

The (FTO) gene polymorphism is associated with metabolic syndrome risk in Egyptian females: a case- control study.

PubMed

Khella, Mina S; Hamdy, Nadia M; Amin, Ashraf I; El-Mesallamy, Hala O

2017-09-16

Variations within fat mass and obesity associated (FTO) gene had crosstalk with obesity risk in European and some Asian populations. This study was designed to investigate FTO rs9939609 association with metabolic syndrome (MetS) as well as biochemical parameters as plasma glucose, serum triacylglycerol (TAG), total cholesterol (TC) and transaminases enzymes in Arab female population from Egypt. In order to achieve that, FTO gene rs9939609 (A < T) was genotyped using TaqMan SNP Genotyping Assay in a total of 197 females which were enrolled in this study. Fasting levels of serum insulin, lipid profile and plasma glucose, in addition to liver transaminases were measured. The association between the genotype distribution and MetS risk was evaluated using Chi-square and logistic regression tests in a case-control design under different genetic models. The association of genotype distribution with MetS was significant (χ2 = 8.6/P = 0.014) with an increased odds ratio under dominant model (OR = 1.97, P = 0.029 and 95%C.I = 1.07-3.6) and recessive model (OR = 2.95, P = 0.017 and 95%C.I = 1.22-7.22). Moreover, (AA) subjects showed significant lower HDL-C levels (P = 0.009) when compared to (TT) ones. In addition, interestingly subjects with (AA) genotype have significantly higher ALT levels (P = 0.02) that remained significant after correction of major confounders as body mass index and serum triacylglycerols but not after conservative Bonferroni adjustment. The present study shows for first time that FTO gene rs9939609 is genetic risk factor for metabolic syndrome in Egyptian population which may help in understanding the biology of this complex syndrome and highlighted that this association may be through HDL-C component. The association of this genetic polymorphism with ALT levels needs to be studied in other populations with larger sample size.

The c.553G>T Genetic Variant of the APOA5 Gene and Altered Triglyceride Levels in the Asian Population: A Meta-Analysis of Case-Control Studies.

PubMed

He, Hongjuan; Lei, Lei; Chen, Erfei; Dong, Jing; Zhang, Kejin; Yang, Jin

2016-12-01

To explore the association of the APOA5 gene c.553G>T polymorphism with hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) susceptibility and altered triglyceride levels. We searched the PubMed, Google Scholar, and CNKI databases for published studies relating to analyses of these associations. Case-control and comparative studies of the association between the APOA5 c.553G>T variant and altered triglyceride levels were included. In total, the meta-analysis involved 10 studies on HTG, which provided 2219 cases and 3401 controls. To measure the correlation between the c.553G>T polymorphism and HTG susceptibility, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. The overall OR was calculated using a random-effects model. Compared with APOA5 c.553 GG carriers, c.553T carriers displayed an increased risk of HTG in the Asian population, with an overall random effects OR of 3.55 (95% CI: 2.46-5.13) in the dominant model. There was significant heterogeneity among the studies (P heterogeneity : Chi 2  = 45.80, I 2  = 75.98%), which may be largely explained by certain patient types. Both the sensitivity analysis and publication bias suggested that the overall result was acceptable. Subgroup analysis showed a large difference in serum triglyceride levels based on the c.553 G > T polymorphism in healthy individuals and HTG patients. APOA5 c.553T carriers exhibit higher triglyceride levels than GG carriers. Our results suggest that APOA5 c. 553T is an independent risk factor for HTG and increased triglyceride levels in the Asian population. APOA5 c. 553T could be employed as a genetic risk marker for HTG and increased triglyceride levels.

Interpretation of the Ecological Significance of Atrazine Stream-Water Concentrations Using a Statistically-Designed Monitoring Program

EPA Science Inventory

A risk assessment was conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as part of the 2003 Interim Registration Eligibility Document (IRED) on atrazine. The assessment indicated potential community- and population-level risk to sensitive aquatic ecosystems at prolonged ...

APOC3 may not be a predictor of risk of ischemic vascular disease in the Chinese population

PubMed Central

Wang, Qing-Yun; Zeng, Wei; Liu, Hui; Wu, Ying-Ying; Hu, Bei; Hu, Yu

2014-01-01

The genetic background of ischemic vascular disease is actively being explored. Several studies have shown that inhibition of APOC3 significantly reduces plasma levels of apolipoprotein C3 and triglycerides. Recently, the TG and HDL Working Group and Jørgensen et al. reported that loss-of-function mutations in APOC3 are associated with decreased triglyceride levels and a reduced risk of ischemic vascular disease in European and African individuals. We performed a replication study in 4470 Chinese participants. The coding regions of APOC3 were amplified and re-sequenced. However, only synonymous and intronic variants with no functional consequences were identified. None of the loss-of-function mutations reported in European and African individuals were observed. Therefore, APOC3 may not be an ideal predictor for risk of ischemic vascular disease in the Chinese population. PMID:25653838

APOC3 may not be a predictor of risk of ischemic vascular disease in the Chinese population.

PubMed

Tang, Liang; Cheng, Zhi-Peng; Wang, Qing-Yun; Zeng, Wei; Liu, Hui; Wu, Ying-Ying; Hu, Bei; Hu, Yu

2014-01-01

The genetic background of ischemic vascular disease is actively being explored. Several studies have shown that inhibition of APOC3 significantly reduces plasma levels of apolipoprotein C3 and triglycerides. Recently, the TG and HDL Working Group and Jørgensen et al. reported that loss-of-function mutations in APOC3 are associated with decreased triglyceride levels and a reduced risk of ischemic vascular disease in European and African individuals. We performed a replication study in 4470 Chinese participants. The coding regions of APOC3 were amplified and re-sequenced. However, only synonymous and intronic variants with no functional consequences were identified. None of the loss-of-function mutations reported in European and African individuals were observed. Therefore, APOC3 may not be an ideal predictor for risk of ischemic vascular disease in the Chinese population.

A Comparison of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Biomarkers in African Americans and Yoruba Nigerians

PubMed Central

Deeg, M.; Baiyewu, O.; Gao, S.; Ogunniyi, A.; Shen, J.; Gureje, O.; Taylor, S.; Murrell, J.; Unverzagt, F.; Smith-Gamble, V.; Evans, R.; Dickens, J.; Hendrie, H.; Hall, K.

2009-01-01

Objective Classical risk factors for coronary artery disease are changing in the developing world while rates of cardiovascular disease are increasing in these populations. Newer risk factors have been identified for cardiovascular disease, but these have been rarely examined in elderly populations and not those of developing countries. Methods This study was a cross-sectional comparison from a longitudinal, observational, epidemiologic study in which participants are interviewed at three-year intervals. The sample included 1510 African Americans from Indianapolis, Indiana, and 1254 Yoruba from Ibadan, Nigeria. We compared anthropomorphic measurements; biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction (plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 [PAI-1] and E-selectin), inflammation (C-reactive protein), and lipid oxidation (8-isoprostane); and levels of lipids, homocysteine, folate, and vitamin B12. Results Cholesterol, triglycerides, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were higher in African Americans. For markers of endothelial dysfunction, E-selectin and homocysteine differed between men, and PAI-1 was higher in the Yoruba. C-reactive protein differed only in women, but 8-isoprostane was higher in the Yoruba. Conclusion Higher lipid levels in African Americans are consistent with their Western diet and lifestyle. Oxidative stress appears to be higher in the Yoruba than in African Americans, which may be secondary to dietary differences. Whether these differences in classical and emerging risk factors account for the different rates of cardiovascular disease, dementia, or other morbidities in these two populations remains to be determined. PMID:19157246

Population exposure to fine particles and estimated excess mortality in Finland from an East European wildfire episode.

PubMed

Hänninen, Otto O; Salonen, Raimo O; Koistinen, Kimmo; Lanki, Timo; Barregard, Lars; Jantunen, Matti

2009-05-01

Long-range transported particulate matter (PM) air pollution episodes associated with wildfires in the Eastern Europe are relatively common in Southern and Southeastern Finland. In severe cases such as in August-September 2002, the reduced visibility and smell of the smoke, and symptoms such as irritation of eyes and airways experienced by the population raise the issue into the headlines. Because PM air pollution, in general, has been identified as a major health risk, and the exposures are of repeating nature, the issue warrants a risk assessment to estimate the magnitude of the problem. The current work uses the available air quality data in Finland to estimate population exposures caused by one of the worst episodes experienced in this decade. This episode originated from wildfires in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltic countries. The populations of 11 Southern Finnish provinces were exposed between 26 August and 8 September 2002, for 2 weeks to an additional population-weighted average PM(2.5) level of 15.7 microg/m(3). Assuming similar effect on mortality for these particles as observed in epidemiological time series studies on urban particles (0.5%-2% increase in mortality per 10 microg/m(3), central estimate 1%), this exposure level would be associated with 9-34 cases (17 cases central estimate) of additional mortality. Epidemiological evidence specific to particles from biomass combustion is scarce, affecting also the reliability of the current risk assessment. Do the wildfire aerosols exhibit the same level of toxicity as the urban particles? To shed light on this question, it is interesting to look at the exposure data in relationship to the observed daily mortality in Finland, even though the limited duration of the episode allows only for a weak statistical power. The percentage increases observed (0.8%-2.1% per 10 microg/m(3) of fine PM) are in line with the more general estimates for urban PM and those used in the current risk assessment.

Negative Affect and HIV Risk in Alcohol and Other Drug (AOD) Abusing Adolescent Offenders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucenko, Barbara A.; Malow, Robert M.; Sanchez-Martinez, Mario; Jennings, Terri; Devieux, Jessy G.

2003-01-01

Various depressive symptoms have been linked to elevated levels of HIV risk across diverse adult populations in multiple studies. However, this link has been examined in a much more limited manner among adolescents, despite an exceedingly heightened risk of both HIV and negative affect in this age group. To address the current lack of clinically…

Impact Study on Driving by Special Populations. Final Report. Volume II: A Guide for the Evaluation of Handicapped Drivers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brainin, Paul A.; And Others

The second of a two-volume report on motor vehicle driving by handicapped persons presents an approach to the evaluation of drivers with 20 specific )edical problems. The guide provides information on symptoms, treatment, guidelines for determining risk levels (risk increasing and risk moderating factors), questions for the applicant, and…

The estimated risk for coronary heart disease and prevalence of dyslipidemia among workers of information technology industries in Taiwan.

PubMed

Yang, Shao-Chi; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Tsai, Wei-I; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Chen, Ming-Fong

2011-03-18

Individuals working in information technology (IT) industries suffer from high work stress, possibly causing adverse impacts on their health. However, studies of cardiovascular risk factors among these workers are lacking. The aims of this study were to evaluate the estimated risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and prevalence of dyslipidemia among IT workers. A total of 941 employees from 11 IT companies were enrolled and the anthropometrics and serum lipid profiles were measured. The 10-year risk for CHD was calculated based on the Framingham risk score. Compared with lipid profiles in a representative sample (n=6589), IT workers had a significantly higher prevalence of obesity, hypercholesterolemia, low level of HDL-C, and high level of LDL-C in each age group. Their overall estimated 10-year risk for CHD was higher than the average risk of an age- and gender-matched population (2.91% vs. 2.79%, p=0.027). Working for more than 10h/day was associated with a higher estimated CHD risk (3.62% vs. 2.54%, p<0.01). A higher prevalence of hyperlipidemia was noted among IT workers. Their estimated 10-year CHD risk was also higher than average. More aggressive interventions to reduce the risk of CHD in this population are needed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets.

PubMed

Lee, Jung-Seok; Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline K; Herrera, Victor M; Park, Il-Yeon; Villar, Luis; Farlow, Andrew

2017-07-10

Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever. The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was constructed based upon temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Considering the conditions necessary for vector survival and transmission behavior, elevation and population density were taken into account. An Early Warning Signal (EWS) model was developed by estimating the elasticity of the climate risk factor function to detect dengue epidemics. The climate risk factor index was further estimated at the smaller geographical unit (5 km by 5 km resolution) to identify populations at high risk. From January 2007 to December 2015, the Early Warning Signal model successfully detected 75% of the total number of outbreaks 1 ~ 5 months ahead of time, 12.5% in the same month, and missed 12.5% of all outbreaks. The climate risk factors showed that populations at high risk are concentrated in the Western part of Colombia where more suitable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes and the high population level were observed compared to the East. This study concludes that it is possible to detect dengue outbreaks ahead of time and identify populations at high risk for various disease prevention activities based upon observed climate and non-climate information. The study outcomes can be used to minimize potential societal losses by prioritizing limited healthcare services and resources, as well as by conducting vector control activities prior to experiencing epidemics.

Quantifiable risk-benefit assessment of micronutrients: From theory to practice.

PubMed

Krul, Lisette; Kremer, Bas H A; Luijckx, Niels B Lucas; Leeman, Winfried R

2017-11-22

The EU Food Supplements Directive (2002/46/EC) mandates the determination of both maximum and minimum permitted levels (MPLs) for micronutrients. In order to determine MPLs which are feasible for particular population groups, a scientific approach should be used in which risk of high intake, risk of inadequacy and benefits are assessed in an integrated way taking all available data and severity and incidence of effect into account. In 2004, Renwick et al. (ILSI Europe) published a scientifically valid, flexible and pragmatic basis for a risk-benefit approach, which has been further developed here to make it a practical and quantifiable approach to be used by risk managers. The applicability of the approach is demonstrated using demo cases on iron and folate. The proposed approach has the capacity to utilize all relevant data available, including data from human studies, bioavailability data showing variability between specific forms of micronutrients and, in the case of animal studies, data on species comparability. The approach is therefore both practical and flexible, making it well suited to risk managers tasked with determining safe intake levels for micronutrients in different forms and for particular population groups.

Patients With Diabetes and Chronic Liver Disease Are at Increased Risk for Overall Mortality: A Population Study From the United States

PubMed Central

Stepanova, Maria; Clement, Stephen; Wong, Robert; Saab, Sammy; Ahmed, Aijaz

2017-01-01

IN BRIEF Chronic liver disease (CLD) and type 2 diabetes have both been linked to increased morbidity and mortality. In this study, the impact of CLD and diabetes on all-cause mortality was quantified at the population level using U.S. population data. Both type 2 diabetes and CLD were found to be independently associated with increased mortality (age-adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.98 and 1.37 for diabetes and CLD, respectively), and having both diabetes and CLD substantially increased the risk of mortality (aHR 2.41). PMID:28442821

Quantifying Geographic Variation in Health Care Outcomes in the United States before and after Risk-Adjustment.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Barry L; Kellar, Joshua A; Labno, Anna; Matheson, David H M; Ringel, Michael; VonAchen, Paige; Lesser, Richard I; Li, Yue; Dimick, Justin B; Gawande, Atul A; Larsson, Stefan H; Moses, Hamilton

2016-01-01

Despite numerous studies of geographic variation in healthcare cost and utilization at the local, regional, and state levels across the U.S., a comprehensive characterization of geographic variation in outcomes has not been published. Our objective was to quantify variation in US health outcomes in an all-payer population before and after risk-adjustment. We used information from 16 independent data sources, including 22 million all-payer inpatient admissions from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (which covers regions where 50% of the U.S. population lives) to analyze 24 inpatient mortality, inpatient safety, and prevention outcomes. We compared outcome variation at state, hospital referral region, hospital service area, county, and hospital levels. Risk-adjusted outcomes were calculated after adjusting for population factors, co-morbidities, and health system factors. Even after risk-adjustment, there exists large geographical variation in outcomes. The variation in healthcare outcomes exceeds the well publicized variation in US healthcare costs. On average, we observed a 2.1-fold difference in risk-adjusted mortality outcomes between top- and bottom-decile hospitals. For example, we observed a 2.3-fold difference for risk-adjusted acute myocardial infarction inpatient mortality. On average a 10.2-fold difference in risk-adjusted patient safety outcomes exists between top and bottom-decile hospitals, including an 18.3-fold difference for risk-adjusted Central Venous Catheter Bloodstream Infection rates. A 3.0-fold difference in prevention outcomes exists between top- and bottom-decile counties on average; including a 2.2-fold difference for risk-adjusted congestive heart failure admission rates. The population, co-morbidity, and health system factors accounted for a range of R2 between 18-64% of variability in mortality outcomes, 3-39% of variability in patient safety outcomes, and 22-70% of variability in prevention outcomes. The amount of variability in health outcomes in the U.S. is large even after accounting for differences in population, co-morbidities, and health system factors. These findings suggest that: 1) additional examination of regional and local variation in risk-adjusted outcomes should be a priority; 2) assumptions of uniform hospital quality that underpin rationale for policy choices (such as narrow insurance networks or antitrust enforcement) should be challenged; and 3) there exists substantial opportunity for outcomes improvement in the US healthcare system.

Relationship between educational and occupational levels, and Chronic Kidney Disease in a multi-ethnic sample- The HELIUS study.

PubMed

Adjei, David N; Stronks, Karien; Adu, Dwomoa; Snijder, Marieke B; Modesti, Pietro A; Peters, Ron J G; Vogt, Liffert; Agyemang, Charles

2017-01-01

Ethnic minority groups in high-income countries are disproportionately affected by Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) for reasons that are unclear. We assessed the association of educational and occupational levels with CKD in a multi-ethnic population. Furthermore, we assessed to what extent ethnic inequalities in the prevalence of CKD were accounted for by educational and occupational levels. Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting (HELIUS) study of 21,433 adults (4,525 Dutch, 3,027 South-Asian Surinamese, 4,105 African Surinamese, 2,314 Ghanaians, 3,579 Turks, and 3,883 Moroccans) aged 18 to 70 years living in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Three CKD outcomes were considered using the 2012 KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) severity of CKD classification. Comparisons between educational and occupational levels were made using logistic regression analyses. After adjustment for sex and age, low-level and middle-level education were significantly associated with higher odds of high to very high-risk of CKD in Dutch (Odds Ratio (OR) 2.10, 95% C.I., 1.37-2.95; OR 1.55, 95% C.I., 1.03-2.34). Among ethnic minority groups, low-level education was significantly associated with higher odds of high to very-high-risk CKD but only in South-Asian Surinamese (OR 1.58, 95% C.I., 1.06-2.34). Similar results were found for the occupational level in relation to CKD risk. The lower educational and occupational levels of ethnic minority groups partly accounted for the observed ethnic inequalities in CKD. Reducing CKD risk in ethnic minority populations with low educational and occupational levels may help to reduce ethnic inequalities in CKD and its related complications.

Muscular Strength as a Predictor of All-Cause Mortality in an Apparently Healthy Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Data From Approximately 2 Million Men and Women.

PubMed

García-Hermoso, Antonio; Cavero-Redondo, Iván; Ramírez-Vélez, Robinson; Ruiz, Jonatan R; Ortega, Francisco B; Lee, Duck-Chul; Martínez-Vizcaíno, Vicente

2018-02-07

The aims of the present systematic review and meta-analysis were to determine the relationship between muscular strength and all-cause mortality risk and to examine the sex-specific impact of muscular strength on all-cause mortality in an apparently healthy population. Two authors systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and SPORTDiscus databases and conducted manual searching of reference lists of selected articles. Eligible cohort studies were those that examined the association of muscular strength with all-cause mortality in an apparently healthy population. The hazard ratio (HR) estimates with 95% confidence interval (CI) were pooled by using random effects meta-analysis models after assessing heterogeneity across studies. Two authors independently extracted data. Thirty-eight studies with 1,907,580 participants were included in the meta-analysis. The included studies had a total of 63,087 deaths. Higher levels of handgrip strength were associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR=0.69; 95% CI, 0.64-0.74) compared with lower muscular strength, with a slightly stronger association in women (HR=0.60; 95% CI, 0.51-0.69) than men (HR=0.69; 95% CI, 0.62-0.77) (all P<.001). Also, adults with higher levels of muscular strength, as assessed by knee extension strength test, had a 14% lower risk of death (HR=0.86: 95% CI, 0.80-0.93; P<.001) compared with adults with lower muscular strength. Higher levels of upper- and lower-body muscular strength are associated with a lower risk of mortality in adult population, regardless of age and follow-up period. Muscular strength tests can be easily performed to identify people with lower muscular strength and, consequently, with an increased risk of mortality. Copyright © 2018 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new prognostic score for elderly patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with R-CHOP: the prognostic role of blood monocyte and lymphocyte counts is absent.

PubMed

Procházka, Vít; Pytlík, Robert; Janíková, Andrea; Belada, David; Sálek, David; Papajík, Tomáš; Campr, Vít; Fürst, Tomáš; Furstova, Jana; Trněný, Marek

2014-01-01

Absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) and absolute monocyte count (AMC) have been documented as independent predictors of survival in patients with newly diagnosed Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL). Analysis of the prognostic impact of ALC and AMC in the context of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and other significant variables in elderly population treated in the R-CHOP regime has not been carried out yet. In this retrospective study, a cohort of 443 newly diagnosed DLBCL patients with age ≥ 60 was analyzed. All patients were treated with the R-CHOP therapy. An extensive statistical analysis was performed to identify risk factors of 3-year overall survival (OS). In multivariate analysis, only three predictors proved significant: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG), age and bulky disease presence. These predictors were dichotomized (ECOG ≥ 1, age ≥ 70, bulk ≥ 7.5) to create a novel four-level score. This score predicted 3-year OS of 94.0%, 77.4%, 62.7% and 35.4% in the low-, low-intermediate, high-intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001). Further, a three-level score was tested which stratifies the population better (3-year OS: 91.9%, 67.2%, 36.2% in the low, intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively) but is more difficult to interpret. Both the 3- and 4-level scores were compared to standard scoring systems and, in our population, were shown to be superior in terms of patients risk stratification with respect to 3-year OS prediction. The results were successfully validated on an independent cohort of 162 patients of similar group characteristics. The prognostic role of baseline ALC, AMC or their ratio (LMR) was not confirmed in the multivariate context in elderly population with DLBCL treated with R-CHOP. The newly proposed age-specific index stratifies the elderly population into risk groups more precisely than the conventional IPI and its existing variants.

The Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Attributable to Major Modifiable Risk Factors in Indonesia.

PubMed

Hussain, Mohammad Akhtar; Al Mamun, Abdullah; Peters, Sanne Ae; Woodward, Mark; Huxley, Rachel R

2016-10-05

In Indonesia, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke are estimated to cause more than 470 000 deaths annually. In order to inform primary prevention policies, we estimated the sex- and age-specific burden of CHD and stroke attributable to five major and modifiable vascular risk factors: cigarette smoking, hypertension, diabetes, elevated total cholesterol, and excess body weight. Population attributable risks for CHD and stroke attributable to these risk factors individually were calculated using summary statistics obtained for prevalence of each risk factor specific to sex and to two age categories (<55 and ≥55 years) from a national survey in Indonesia. Age- and sex-specific relative risks for CHD and stroke associated with each of the five risk factors were derived from prospective data from the Asia-Pacific region. Hypertension was the leading vascular risk factor, explaining 20%-25% of all CHD and 36%-42% of all strokes in both sexes and approximately one-third of all CHD and half of all strokes across younger and older age groups alike. Smoking in men explained a substantial proportion of vascular events (25% of CHD and 17% of strokes). However, given that these risk factors are likely to be strongly correlated, these population attributable risk proportions are likely to be overestimates and require verification from future studies that are able to take into account correlation between risk factors. Implementation of effective population-based prevention strategies aimed at reducing levels of major cardiovascular risk factors, especially blood pressure, total cholesterol, and smoking prevalence among men, could reduce the growing burden of CVD in the Indonesian population.

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological features were extracted; including, sensor placement, derived parameters used to assess fall risk, fall risk classification method, and fall risk classification model outcomes. Results Inertial sensors were placed only on the lower back in the majority of papers (65%). One hundred and thirty distinct variables were assessed, which were categorized as position and angle (7.7%), angular velocity (11.5%), linear acceleration (20%), spatial (3.8%), temporal (23.1%), energy (3.8%), frequency (15.4%), and other (14.6%). Fallers were classified using retrospective fall history (30%), prospective fall occurrence (15%), and clinical assessment (32.5%), with 22.5% using a combination of retrospective fall occurrence and clinical assessments. Half of the studies derived models for fall risk prediction, which reached high levels of accuracy (62-100%), specificity (35-100%), and sensitivity (55-99%). Conclusions Inertial sensors are promising sensors for fall risk assessment. Future studies should identify fallers using prospective techniques and focus on determining the most promising sensor sites, in conjunction with determination of optimally predictive variables. Further research should also attempt to link predictive variables to specific fall risk factors and investigate disease populations that are at high risk of falls. PMID:23927446

Relationship of psychological distress and unprotected sex among individuals with HIV seeking mental health care.

PubMed

Shacham, Enbal; Basta, Tania B; Reece, Michael

2009-01-01

This study examined the prevalence of sexual behavior and its relationship with psychological distress among individuals with HIV who were seeking mental health care. Upon self-enrollment in HIV-related mental health care, 845 participants completed self-assessments of demographics, psychological distress, and sexual behaviors. Participants were categorized by sexual risk as determined by their reported unprotected sexual activity within the previous 30 days: receptive anal or vaginal sex (high-risk), insertive anal or vaginal sex (moderate-risk), oral sex (low-risk), and no sex (no-risk). The majority of the sample was classified as no-risk, 11% low-risk, 5% moderate-risk, and 17% were high-risk. Levels of psychological distress did not differ across risk levels. Overall psychological distress levels were elevated, 19% of the sample expressed severe distress. Use of illicit drugs, alcohol, and no-AIDS diagnosis predicted high-risk sexual behaviors. A substantial proportion of the sample reported engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors, which signifies the need to further incorporate sex-related prevention efforts among HIV-infected populations.

Childhood lead poisoning prevention through prenatal housing inspection and remediation in St. Louis, MO.

PubMed

Berg, Daniel R; Eckstein, Erin T; Steiner, Matt S; Gavard, Jeffrey A; Gross, Gilad A

2012-03-01

We assessed the screening and remediation of home lead hazards prenatally in a high-risk population, hypothesizing that average blood-lead level and the number of poisonings would drop by 25%. One hundred fifty-two women underwent prenatal home inspections by certified lead inspectors. The hazards that were identified were remediated. The blood-lead levels of children of participating women were compared with matched control subjects. Blood-lead levels were obtained from 60 children and compared with matched control subjects. The average blood-lead level of children in the treatment group was 2.70 μg/dL vs 3.73 μg/dL in control subjects (P = .019). The percentage of children with levels >10 μg/dL in the treatment group was 0% vs 4.2% in control subjects (P = .128). Screening and remediation of houses of pregnant women is effective to reduce the average blood-lead level and number of children that exceed the federal level of concern for lead poisoning in a high-risk population. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Outlining a Population “at Risk” of Parkinson's Disease: Evidence from a Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Schirinzi, Tommaso; Martella, Giuseppina; D'Elia, Alessio; Di Lazzaro, Giulia; Imbriani, Paola; Madeo, Graziella; Monaco, Leonardo; Maltese, Marta

2016-01-01

The multifactorial pathogenesis of Parkinson's Disease (PD) requires a careful identification of populations “at risk” of developing the disease. In this case-control study we analyzed a large Italian population, in an attempt to outline general criteria to define a population “at risk” of PD. We enrolled 300 PD patients and 300 controls, gender and age matched, from the same urban geographical area. All subjects were interviewed on demographics, family history of PD, occupational and environmental toxicants exposure, smoking status, and alcohol consumption. A sample of 65 patients and 65 controls also underwent serum dosing of iron, copper, mercury, and manganese by means of Inductively Coupled-Plasma-Mass-Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Positive family history, toxicants exposure, non-current-smoker, and alcohol nonconsumer status occurred as significant risk factors in our population. The number of concurring risk factors overlapping in the same subject impressively increased the overall risk. No significant differences were measured in the metal serum levels. Our findings indicate that combination of three to four concurrent PD-risk factors defines a condition “at risk” of PD. A simple stratification, based on these questionnaires, might be of help in identifying subjects suitable for neuroprotective strategies. PMID:27651975

Relationships between coronary heart disease risk factors and serum ionized calcium in Kennedy Space Center Cohort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodwin, Lisa Ann; Frey, Mary Anne Bassett; Merz, Marion P.; Alford, William R.

1987-01-01

Kennedy Space Center (KSC) employees are reported to be at high risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). Risk factors for CHD include high serum total cholesterol levels, low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), elevated triglyceride, smoking, inactivity, high blood pressure, being male, and being older. Higher dietary and/or serum calcium Ca(++) may be related to a lower risk for CHD. Fifty men and 37 women participated. Subjects were tested in the morning after fasting 12 hours. Information relative to smoking and exercise habits was obtained; seated blood pressures were measured; and blood drawn. KCS men had higher risk values than KCS women as related to HDLC, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure. Smoking and nonsmoking groups did not differ for other risk factors or for serum Ca(++) levels. Exercise and sedentary groups differed in total cholesterol and triglyceride levels. Serum Ca(++) levels were related to age, increasing with age in the sedentary group and decreasing in the exercisers, equally for men and women. It is concluded that these relationships may be significant to the risk of CHD and/or the risk of bone demineralization in an aging population.

USE OF WILDLIFE MORTALITY DATA TO QUALIFY RISKS TO POPULATIONS ACROSS SPACE AND TIME

EPA Science Inventory

Common loon (Gavia immer) populations have declined from historic levels in New England and despite recent range-wide increases; mortality has increased in some areas. To identify and quantify the causes of disease and death in New England loons, the Wildlife Clinic at Tufts Uni...

PREDICTION OF POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE FROM MYSID TOXICITY TEST DATA USING POPULATION MODEL TECHNIQUES

EPA Science Inventory

Acute and chronic bioassay statistics are used to evaluate the toxicity and the risks of chemical stressors to mysid shrimp Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia). These include LC50 values from acute tests, chronic values (the geometric mean of the no-obsderved-effect co...

Ecological modelling and toxicity data coupled to assess population recovery of marine amphipod Gammarus locusta: Application to disturbance by chronic exposure to aniline.

PubMed

de los Santos, Carmen B; Neuparth, Teresa; Torres, Tiago; Martins, Irene; Cunha, Isabel; Sheahan, Dave; McGowan, Tom; Santos, Miguel M

2015-06-01

A population agent-based model of marine amphipod Gammarus locusta was designed and implemented as a basis for ecological risk assessment of chemical pollutants impairing life-history traits at the individual level. We further used the model to assess the toxic effects of aniline (a priority hazardous and noxious substance, HNS) on amphipod populations using empirically-built dose-response functions derived from a chronic bioassay that we previously performed with this species. We observed a significant toxicant-induced mortality and adverse effects in reproductive performance (reduction of newborn production) in G. locusta at the individual level. Coupling the population model with the toxicological data from the chronic bioassay allowed the projection of the ecological costs associated with exposure to aniline that might occur in wild populations. Model simulations with different scenarios indicated that even low level prolonged exposure to the HNS aniline can have significant long-term impacts on G. locusta population abundance, until the impacted population returns to undisturbed levels. This approach may be a useful complement in ecotoxicological studies of chemical pollution to transfer individual-collected data to ecological-relevant levels. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lifestyle Health Behaviors of Nurses and Midwives: The ‘Fit for the Future’ Study

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiaoyue; Gallagher, Robyn; Nicholls, Rachel; Sibbritt, David; Duffield, Christine

2018-01-01

Nurses and midwives (nurses) are the principle role models and health educators for the wider population. This study sought to identify the health-related behaviors of the nursing workforce of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, compared to contemporary recommendations for healthy living and to the Australian general population, matched by gender and age. An electronic cross-sectional survey delivered in 2014–2015 recruited 5041 nurses through the NSW Nurses and Midwives Association and professional networks. Validated health behavior measures were collected and compared to Australian National Health Survey data. Compared with younger nurses, older nurses reported greater adherence to fruit and vegetable guideline recommendations, but were more likely to be overweight or obese. Younger nurses (25–34 years) had the highest risk of harmful drinking. Compared with the Australian general population, slightly higher percentages of nurses met dietary recommendations and slightly fewer were obese, had central adiposity or smoked. Nurses had lower physical activity levels and higher levels of risky drinking across most gender and age groups. Many nurses have lifestyle health behaviors that place them at high risk for developing non-communicable diseases, sometimes at higher risk than the Australian population to whom they deliver health education. Health promotion strategies for nurses are urgently required. PMID:29747412

Lifestyle Health Behaviors of Nurses and Midwives: The 'Fit for the Future' Study.

PubMed

Perry, Lin; Xu, Xiaoyue; Gallagher, Robyn; Nicholls, Rachel; Sibbritt, David; Duffield, Christine

2018-05-09

Nurses and midwives (nurses) are the principle role models and health educators for the wider population. This study sought to identify the health-related behaviors of the nursing workforce of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, compared to contemporary recommendations for healthy living and to the Australian general population, matched by gender and age. An electronic cross-sectional survey delivered in 2014⁻2015 recruited 5041 nurses through the NSW Nurses and Midwives Association and professional networks. Validated health behavior measures were collected and compared to Australian National Health Survey data. Compared with younger nurses, older nurses reported greater adherence to fruit and vegetable guideline recommendations, but were more likely to be overweight or obese. Younger nurses (25⁻34 years) had the highest risk of harmful drinking. Compared with the Australian general population, slightly higher percentages of nurses met dietary recommendations and slightly fewer were obese, had central adiposity or smoked. Nurses had lower physical activity levels and higher levels of risky drinking across most gender and age groups. Many nurses have lifestyle health behaviors that place them at high risk for developing non-communicable diseases, sometimes at higher risk than the Australian population to whom they deliver health education. Health promotion strategies for nurses are urgently required.

Spatial distribution of mumps in South Korea, 2001-2015: identifying clusters and population risk factors.

PubMed

Choe, Y-J; Min, K; Cho, S-I

2017-07-01

In South Korea, the resurgence of mumps was noted primarily among school-aged children and adolescents since 2000. We analyzed spatial patterns in mumps incidence to give an indication to the geographical risk. We used National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System data from 2001 to 2015, classifying into three periods according to the level of endemicity. A geographic-weighted regression analysis was performed to find demographic predictors of mumps incidence according to district level. We assessed the association between the total population size, population density, percentage of children (age 0-19 years), timely vaccination rate of measles-mumps-rubella vaccines and the higher incidence rate of mumps. During low endemic periods, there were sporadic regional distributions of outbreak in the central and northern part of the country. During intermediate endemic periods, the increase of incidence was noted across the country. During high endemic period, a nationwide high incidence of mumps was noted especially concentrated in southwestern regions. A clear pattern for the mumps cluster shown through global spatial autocorrelation analysis from 2004 to 2015. The 'non-timely vaccination coverage' (P = 0·002), and 'proportion of children population' (P < 0·001) were the predictors for high mumps incidence in district levels. Our study indicates that the rate of mumps incidence according to geographic regions vary by population proportion and neighboring regions, and timeliness of vaccination, suggesting the importance of community-level surveillance and improving of timely vaccination.

Combined oral contraceptives in polycystic ovary syndrome - indications and cautions.

PubMed

Bozdag, Gurkan; Yildiz, Bulent Okan

2013-01-01

Combined oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) have been used in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) for the treatment of menstrual disorders, acne and hirsutism. Despite years of their use and broad clinical experience, there are still ongoing doubts concerning their implications for the cardiovascular system and carbohydrate metabolism both in the general population and women with PCOS. In the general population, the risk of venous thromboembolism is reported to be increased. However, arterial thrombotic events seem to require concomitant risk factors to appear during administration of OCPs. In terms of carbohydrate metabolism, available data do not consistently suggest an increased risk of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or conversion of IGT to type 2 diabetes mellitus, in spite of some subtle fluctuations in glucose and insulin levels. In subgroup analyses of epidemiological studies in the general population, there is no finding indicating an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and related mortality in premenopausal women with PCOS. There is no significant alteration in carbohydrate and lipid metabolism after use of OCP in PCOS either. The absence of further cardiometabolic risk with OCP use in PCOS might suggest some unproven preventive alterations in this patient population. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Statins for stroke prevention: disappointment and hope.

PubMed

Amarenco, Pierre; Tonkin, Andrew M

2004-06-15

The occurrence of stroke increases with age, particularly affecting the older elderly, a population also at higher risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). Epidemiological and observational studies have not shown a clear association between cholesterol levels and all causes of stroke. Nonetheless, large, long-term statin trials in patients with established CHD or at high risk for CHD have shown that statins decrease stroke incidence in these populations. Combined data from 9 trials including 70,070 patients indicated relative and absolute risk reductions for stroke of 21% and 0.9%, respectively, with statins. The number of strokes prevented per 1000 patients treated for 5 years in patients with CHD is 9 for statins, compared with 17.3 for antiplatelet agents. Statins have not yet been shown to reduce stroke risk in the typical general population without known CHD, nor have they been shown to prevent recurrent stroke in patients with prior stroke. Potential reasons for the effects of statins on stroke and the non-cholesterol-lowering mechanisms that may be involved are discussed. Treatment strategies based on global cardiovascular risk may be most effective. Additional studies in patients representative of the typical stroke population are needed.

Increased risk of acute pancreatitis in patients with chronic hemodialysis: a 4-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Hou, Sheng-Wen; Lee, Yi-Kung; Hsu, Chen-Yang; Lee, Ching-Chih; Su, Yung-Cheng

2013-01-01

The risk of acute pancreatitis in patients on long-term peritoneal dialysis is higher as compared to the general population. However, the relationship between long-term hemodialysis and acute pancreatitis has never been established. We investigated the incidence of acute pancreatitis among patients on long-term hemodialysis in Taiwan to evaluate if there is a higher risk of acute pancreatitis in comparison to the general population. We utilized a National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data sample containing one million beneficiaries. We followed all adult beneficiaries from January 1, 2007 until December 31, 2010 to see if they had been hospitalized for acute pancreatitis during this period. We further identified patients on chronic hemodialysis and compared their risk of acute pancreatitis with the general population. This study included 2603 patients with long-term hemodialysis and 773,140 patients without hemodialysis. After controlling for age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index Score, geographic region, socioeconomic status and urbanization level, the adjusted hazard ratio was 3.44 (95% Confidence interval, 2.5-4.7). The risk of acute pancreatitis in patients on long-term hemodialysis is significantly higher in comparison to the general population.

Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

PubMed

Schmidt, Wolf-Peter; Suzuki, Motoi; Thiem, Vu Dinh; White, Richard G; Tsuzuki, Ataru; Yoshida, Lay-Myint; Yanai, Hideki; Haque, Ubydul; Tho, Le Huu; Anh, Dang Duc; Ariyoshi, Koya

2011-08-01

Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Population Density, Water Supply, and the Risk of Dengue Fever in Vietnam: Cohort Study and Spatial Analysis

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Wolf-Peter; Suzuki, Motoi; Dinh Thiem, Vu; White, Richard G.; Tsuzuki, Ataru; Yoshida, Lay-Myint; Yanai, Hideki; Haque, Ubydul; Huu Tho, Le; Anh, Dang Duc; Ariyoshi, Koya

2011-01-01

Background Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. Methods and Findings We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km2 prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. Conclusions Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21918642

Neighbourhoods matter too: the association between neighbourhood socioeconomic position, population density and breast, prostate and lung cancer incidence in Denmark between 2004 and 2008.

PubMed

Meijer, Mathias; Bloomfield, Kim; Engholm, Gerda

2013-01-01

Previous studies have shown that cancer incidence is related to a number of individual factors, including socioeconomic status. The aim of this study was to refine the current knowledge about indicators associated with cancer incidence by evaluating the influence of neighbourhood characteristics on breast, prostate and lung cancer incidence in Denmark. All women aged 30-83 years were followed for breast cancer between 2004 and 2008, men between 50 and 83 years were followed for prostate cancer and both sexes between ages 50 and 83 were followed for lung cancer. Registry data obtained from Statistics Denmark included age, sex, availability of breast cancer screening, marital status, education, disposable income and occupational socioeconomic status on the individual level and population density and neighbourhood socioeconomic status (the proportion of unemployed) on the parish level. Frailty modelling with individuals on the first level and parishes on the second level was conducted. A significantly lower HR of breast cancer was found in areas with low population density (HR=0.93; CI 0.88 to 0.99), while neighbourhood unemployment had no effect. Inhabitants of lower unemployment areas had a higher risk of prostate cancer (HR=1.14; CI 1.08 to 1.21) compared with those in higher unemployment areas, whereas population density had no effect. Risk of lung cancer was lower in areas with lowest population density (HR=0.80; CI 0.74 to 0.85) and lowest in areas with lowest unemployment (HR=0.88; CI 0.84 to 0.92). In addition to individual-level factors, characteristics on the neighbourhood level also have an influence on breast, prostate and lung cancer incidence.

Nutrient intake values (NIVs): a recommended terminology and framework for the derivation of values.

PubMed

King, Janet C; Vorster, Hester H; Tome, Daniel G

2007-03-01

Although most countries and regions around the world set recommended nutrient intake values for their populations, there is no standardized terminology or framework for establishing these standards. Different terms used for various components of a set of dietary standards are described in this paper and a common set of terminology is proposed. The recommended terminology suggests that the set of values be called nutrient intake values (NIVs) and that the set be composed of three different values. The average nutrient requirement (ANR) reflects the median requirement for a nutrient in a specific population. The individual nutrient level (INLx) is the recommended level of nutrient intake for all healthy people in the population, which is set at a certain level x above the mean requirement. For example, a value set at 2 standard deviations above the mean requirement would cover the needs of 98% of the population and would be INL98. The third component of the NIVs is an upper nutrient level (UNL), which is the highest level of daily nutrient intake that is likely to pose no risk of adverse health effects for almost all individuals in a specified life-stage group. The proposed framework for deriving a set of NIVs is based on a statistical approach for determining the midpoint of a distribution of requirements for a set of nutrients in a population (the ANR), the standard deviation of the requirements, and an individual nutrient level that assures health at some point above the mean, e.g., 2 standard deviations. Ideally, a second set of distributions of risk of excessive intakes is used as the basis for a UNL.

Genetic predisposition to elevated levels of C-reactive protein is associated with a decreased risk for preeclampsia.

PubMed

Spracklen, Cassandra N; Smith, Caitlin J; Saftlas, Audrey F; Triche, Elizabeth W; Bjonnes, Andrew; Keating, Brendan J; Saxena, Richa; Breheny, Patrick J; Dewan, Andrew T; Robinson, Jennifer G; Hoh, Josephine; Ryckman, Kelli K

2017-02-01

To examine the association between genetic predisposition to elevated C-reactive protein (CRP)and risk for preeclampsia using validated genetic loci for C-reactive protein. Preeclampsia cases (n = 177) and normotensive controls (n = 116) were selected from live birth certificates to nulliparous Iowa women during the period August 2002-May 2005. Disease status was verified by the medical chart review. Genetic predisposition to CRP was estimated by a genetic risk score on the basis of established loci for CRP levels. Logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the relationships between the genotype score and preeclampsia. Replication analyses were performed in an independent, US population of preeclampsia cases (n = 516) and controls (n = 1,097) of European ancestry. The genetic risk score (GRS) related to higher levels of CRP demonstrated a significantly decreased risk of preeclampsia (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82-0.96). When the GRS was analyzed by quartile, an inverse linear trend was observed (p = 0.0006). The results were similar after adjustments for the body mass index (BMI), smoking, and leisure-time physical activity. In the independent replication population, the association with the CRP GRS was also marginally significant (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.92, 1.02). Meta-analysis of the two studies was statistically significant (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.90, 0.99). Our data suggest an inverse, counterintuitive association between the genetic predisposition to elevated levels of CRP and a decreased risk of preeclampsia. This suggests that the blood CRP level is a marker of preeclampsia, but it does not appear to be a factor on the causal pathway.

Comparative measurement and quantitative risk assessment of alcohol consumption through wastewater-based epidemiology: An international study in 20 cities.

PubMed

Ryu, Yeonsuk; Barceló, Damià; Barron, Leon P; Bijlsma, Lubertus; Castiglioni, Sara; de Voogt, Pim; Emke, Erik; Hernández, Félix; Lai, Foon Yin; Lopes, Alvaro; de Alda, Miren López; Mastroianni, Nicola; Munro, Kelly; O'Brien, Jake; Ort, Christoph; Plósz, Benedek G; Reid, Malcolm J; Yargeau, Viviane; Thomas, Kevin V

2016-09-15

Quantitative measurement of drug consumption biomarkers in wastewater can provide objective information on community drug use patterns and trends. This study presents the measurement of alcohol consumption in 20 cities across 11 countries through the use of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), and reports the application of these data for the risk assessment of alcohol on a population scale using the margin of exposure (MOE) approach. Raw 24-h composite wastewater samples were collected over a one-week period from 20 cities following a common protocol. For each sample a specific and stable alcohol consumption biomarker, ethyl sulfate (EtS) was determined by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. The EtS concentrations were used for estimation of per capita alcohol consumption in each city, which was further compared with international reports and applied for risk assessment by MOE. The average per capita consumption in 20 cities ranged between 6.4 and 44.3L/day/1000 inhabitants. An increase in alcohol consumption during the weekend occurred in all cities, however the level of this increase was found to differ. In contrast to conventional data (sales statistics and interviews), WBE revealed geographical differences in the level and pattern of actual alcohol consumption at an inter-city level. All the sampled cities were in the "high risk" category (MOE<10) and the average MOE for the whole population studied was 2.5. These results allowed direct comparisons of alcohol consumption levels, patterns and risks among the cities. This study shows that WBE can provide timely and complementary information on alcohol use and alcohol associated risks in terms of exposure at the community level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increasing extreme water level flood risk as a result of future sea-level rise: A case study on a coastal city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, A.; Wu, S.

2016-12-01

Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. In the context of climate change, this study explored the impact of future sea-level rise on the flood risk of extreme water levels. Using Rongcheng City in Shandong Province, China as a case study, flooded area, expected direct damage losses, and affected population and GDP were assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three greenhouse gas concentration Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that, as a result of sea-level rise induced by climate change, the flooded areas of Rongcheng City would increase by 3.23% to 10.64% in 2050 and by as much as 4.98% to 19.87% in 2100, compared with current recurrence periods. Residential land and farmland are at greatest risk of flooding in terms of exposure and losses than other land-use types, and under a high degree RCP 8.5 scenario, expected damage losses would be between 59.84 billion and 86.45 billion in 2050. Results show that the increase in total direct damage losses would reach an average of 60% in 2100 as a result of a 0.82 m sea-level rise. Similarly, affected population and GDP would increase by between 4.95% and 13.87% and between 3.66% and 10.95% in 2050, and by as much as 7.69% to 29.01% and 5.30% to 20.50% in 2100. This study shows that sea-level rise significantly shortens recurrence periods of extreme water levels, makes extreme flood events more frequent, and exacerbates the risk of future flooding. Our results suggest that, if there is no adaptation, sea-level rise will greatly increase the risk of flooding and severely impact human habitability along coastlines.

Predicting the sensitivity of populations from individual exposure to chemicals: the role of ecological interactions.

PubMed

Gabsi, Faten; Schäffer, Andreas; Preuss, Thomas G

2014-07-01

Population responses to chemical stress exposure are influenced by nonchemical, environmental processes such as species interactions. A realistic quantification of chemical toxicity to populations calls for the use of methodologies that integrate these multiple stress effects. The authors used an individual-based model for Daphnia magna as a virtual laboratory to determine the influence of ecological interactions on population sensitivity to chemicals with different modes of action on individuals. In the model, hypothetical chemical toxicity targeted different vital individual-level processes: reproduction, survival, feeding rate, or somatic growth rate. As for species interactions, predatory and competition effects on daphnid populations were implemented following a worst-case approach. The population abundance was simulated at different food levels and exposure scenarios, assuming exposure to chemical stress solely or in combination with either competition or predation. The chemical always targeted one vital endpoint. Equal toxicity-inhibition levels differently affected the population abundance with and without species interactions. In addition, population responses to chemicals were highly sensitive to the environmental stressor (predator or competitor) and to the food level. Results show that population resilience cannot be attributed to chemical stress only. Accounting for the relevant ecological interactions would reduce uncertainties when extrapolating effects of chemicals from individuals to the population level. Validated population models should be used for a more realistic risk assessment of chemicals. © 2014 SETAC.

An integrated approach to preventing cardiovascular disease: community-based approaches, health system initiatives, and public health policy.

PubMed

Karwalajtys, Tina; Kaczorowski, Janusz

2010-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is largely the product of interactions among modifiable risk factors that are common in developed nations and increasingly of concern in developing countries. Hypertension is an important precursor to the development of CVD, and although detection and treatment rates have improved in recent years in some jurisdictions, effective strategies and policies supporting a shift in distribution of risk factors at the population level remain paramount. Challenges in managing cardiovascular health more effectively include factors at the patient, provider, and system level. Strategies to reduce hypertension and CVD should be population based, incorporate multilevel, multicomponent, and socioenvironmental approaches, and integrate community resources with public health and clinical care. There is an urgent need to improve monitoring and management of risk factors through community-wide, primary care-linked initiatives, increase the evidence base for community-based prevention strategies, further develop and evaluate promising program components, and develop new approaches to support healthy lifestyle behaviors in diverse age, socioeconomic, and ethnocultural groups. Policy and system changes are critical to reduce risk in populations, including legislation and public education to reduce dietary sodium and trans-fatty acids, food pricing policies, and changes to health care delivery systems to explicitly support prevention and management of CVD.

A multi-level approach for investigating socio-economic and agricultural risk factors associated with rates of reported cases of Escherichia coli O157 in humans in Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Pearl, D L; Louie, M; Chui, L; Doré, K; Grimsrud, K M; Martin, S W; Michel, P; Svenson, L W; McEwen, S A

2009-10-01

Using negative binomial and multi-level Poisson models, the authors determined the statistical significance of agricultural and socio-economic risk factors for rates of reported disease associated with Escherichia coli O157 in census subdivisions (CSDs) in Alberta, Canada, 2000-2002. Variables relating to population stability, aboriginal composition of the CSDs, and the economic relationship between CSDs and urban centres were significant risk factors. The percentage of individuals living in low-income households was not a statistically significant risk factor for rates of disease. The statistical significance of cattle density, recorded at a higher geographical level, depended on the method used to correct for overdispersion, the number of levels included in the multi-level models, and the choice of using all reported cases or only sporadic cases. Our results highlight the importance of local socio-economic risk factors in determining rates of disease associated with E. coli O157, but their relationship with individual risk factors requires further evaluation.

Review of epidemiological studies on drinking water hardness and cardiovascular diseases.

PubMed

Monarca, Silvano; Donato, Francesco; Zerbini, Ilaria; Calderon, Rebecca L; Craun, Gunther F

2006-08-01

Major risk factors do not entirely explain the worldwide variability of morbidity and mortality due to cardiovascular disease. Environmental exposures, including drinking water minerals may affect cardiovascular disease risks. We conducted a qualitative review of the epidemiological studies of cardiovascular disease and drinking water hardness and calcium and magnesium levels. Many but not all ecological studies found an inverse (i.e., protective) association between cardiovascular disease mortality and water hardness, calcium, or magnesium levels; but results are not consistent. Some case-control studies and one cohort study found either a reduced cardiovascular disease mortality risk with increased drinking water magnesium levels or an increased risk with low magnesium levels. However, the analytical studies provide little evidence that cardiovascular risks are associated with drinking water hardness or calcium levels. Information from epidemiological and other studies supports the hypothesis that a low intake of magnesium may increase the risk of dying from, and possibly developing, cardiovascular disease or stroke. Thus, not removing magnesium from drinking water, or in certain situations increasing the magnesium intake from water, may be beneficial, especially for populations with an insufficient dietary intake of the mineral.

Dioxin emissions from a solid waste incinerator and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

PubMed

Floret, Nathalie; Mauny, Frédéric; Challier, Bruno; Arveux, Patrick; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Viel, Jean-François

2003-07-01

It is not clear whether low environmental doses of dioxin affect the general population. We previously detected a cluster of patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma around a French municipal solid waste incinerator with high dioxin emissions. To explore the environmental route suggested by these findings, we carried out a population-based case-control study in the same area. We compared 222 incident cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma diagnosed between 1980 and 1995 and controls randomly selected from the 1990 population census, using a 10-to-1 match. Dioxin ground-level concentrations were modeled with a second-generation Gaussian-type dispersion model, yielding four dioxin exposure categories. The latter were linked to individual places of residence, using Geographic Information System technology. The risk of developing non-Hodgkin lymphoma was 2.3 times higher (95% confidence interval = 1.4-3.8) among individuals living in the area with the highest dioxin concentration than among those living in the area with the lowest dioxin concentration. No increased risk was found for the intermediate dioxin exposure categories. Adjustment for a wide range of socioeconomic characteristics at the block group level did not alter the results. Although emissions from incinerators are usually not regarded as an important source of exposure to dioxins compared with other background sources, our findings support the hypothesis that environmental dioxins increase the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma among the population living in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator.

Divergent fifteen-year trends in traditional and cardiometabolic risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in the Seychelles

PubMed Central

Bovet, Pascal; Romain, Sarah; Shamlaye, Conrad; Mendis, Shanti; Darioli, Roger; Riesen, Walter; Tappy, Luc; Paccaud, Fred

2009-01-01

Objective Few studies have assessed secular changes in the levels of cardiovascular risk factors (CV-RF) in populations of low or middle income countries. The systematic collection of a broad set of both traditional and metabolic CV-RF in 1989 and 2004 in the population of the Seychelles islands provides a unique opportunity to examine trends at a fairly early stage of the "diabesity" era in a country in the African region. Methods Two examination surveys were conducted in independent random samples of the population aged 25–64 years in 1989 and 2004, attended by respectively 1081 and 1255 participants (participation rates >80%). All results are age-standardized to the WHO standard population. Results In 2004 vs. 1989, the levels of the main traditional CV-RF have either decreased, e.g. smoking (17% vs. 30%, p < 0.001), mean blood pressure (127.8/84.8 vs. 130.0/83.4 mmHg, p < 0.05), or only moderately increased, e.g. median LDL-cholesterol (3.58 vs. 3.36 mmol/l, p < 0. 01). In contrast, marked detrimental trends were found for obesity (37% vs. 21%, p < 0.001) and several cardiometabolic CVD-RF, e.g. mean HDL-cholesterol (1.36 vs. 1.40 mmol/l, p < 0.05), median triglycerides (0.80 vs. 0.78 mmol/l, p < 0.01), mean blood glucose (5.89 vs. 5.22 mmol/l, p < 0.001), median insulin (11.6 vs. 8.3 μmol/l, p < 0.001), median HOMA-IR (2.9 vs. 1.8, p < 0.001) and diabetes (9.4% vs. 6.2%, p < 0.001). At age 40–64, the prevalence of elevated total cardiovascular risk tended to decrease (e.g. WHO-ISH risk score ≥10; 11% vs. 13%, ns), whereas the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (which integrates several cardiometabolic CVD-RF) nearly doubled (36% vs. 20%, p < 0.001). Data on physical activity and on intake of alcohol, fruit and vegetables are also provided. Awareness and treatment rates improved substantially for hypertension and diabetes, but control rates improved for the former only. Median levels of the cardiometabolic CVD-RF increased between 1989 and 2004 within all BMI strata, suggesting that the worsening levels of cardiometabolic CVD-RF in the population were not only related to increasing BMI levels in the interval. Conclusion The levels of several traditional CVD-RF improved over time, while marked detrimental trends were observed for obesity, diabetes and several cardiometabolic factors. Thus, in this population, the rapid health transition was characterized by substantial changes in the patterns of CVD-RF. More generally, this analysis suggests the importance of surveillance systems to identify risk factor trends and the need for preventive strategies to promote healthy lifestyles and nutrition. PMID:19558646

Driving forces behind the Chinese public's demand for improved environmental safety.

PubMed

Wen, Ting; Wang, Jigan; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun

2017-12-15

Over the past decades, the public demand for improved environmental safety keeps increasing in China. This study aims to assess the driving forces behind the increasing public demand for improved environmental safety using a provincial and multi-year (1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014) panel data and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The potential driving forces investigated included population size, income levels, degrees of urbanization, and educational levels. Results show that population size and educational level are positively (P<0.01) associated with public demand for improved environmental safety. No significant impact on demand was found due to the degree of urbanization. For the impact due to income level, an inverted U-shaped curve effect with the turning point of ~140,000 CNY GDP per capita is indicated. Since per capita GDP of 2015 in China was approximately 50,000 CNY and far from the turning point, the public demand for improved environmental safety will continue rising in the near future. To meet the increasing public demand for improved environmental safety, proactive and risk prevention based environmental management systems coupled with effective environmental risk communication should be established. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.