Quantile regression of microgeographic variation in population characteristics of an invasive vertebrate predator

PubMed Central

Siers, Shane R.; Savidge, Julie A.; Reed, Robert N.

2017-01-01

Localized ecological conditions have the potential to induce variation in population characteristics such as size distributions and body conditions. The ability to generalize the influence of ecological characteristics on such population traits may be particularly meaningful when those traits influence prospects for successful management interventions. To characterize variability in invasive Brown Treesnake population attributes within and among habitat types, we conducted systematic and seasonally-balanced surveys, collecting 100 snakes from each of 18 sites: three replicates within each of six major habitat types comprising 95% of Guam’s geographic expanse. Our study constitutes one of the most comprehensive and controlled samplings of any published snake study. Quantile regression on snake size and body condition indicated significant ecological heterogeneity, with a general trend of relative consistency of size classes and body conditions within and among scrub and Leucaena forest habitat types and more heterogeneity among ravine forest, savanna, and urban residential sites. Larger and more robust snakes were found within some savanna and urban habitat replicates, likely due to relative availability of larger prey. Compared to more homogeneous samples in the wet season, variability in size distributions and body conditions was greater during the dry season. Although there is evidence of habitat influencing Brown Treesnake populations at localized scales (e.g., the higher prevalence of larger snakes—particularly males—in savanna and urban sites), the level of variability among sites within habitat types indicates little ability to make meaningful predictions about these traits at unsampled locations. Seasonal variability within sites and habitats indicates that localized population characterization should include sampling in both wet and dry seasons. Extreme values at single replicates occasionally influenced overall habitat patterns, while pooling replicates masked variability among sites. A full understanding of population characteristics should include an assessment of variability both at the site and habitat level. PMID:28570632

Quantile regression of microgeographic variation in population characteristics of an invasive vertebrate predator.

PubMed

Siers, Shane R; Savidge, Julie A; Reed, Robert N

2017-01-01

Localized ecological conditions have the potential to induce variation in population characteristics such as size distributions and body conditions. The ability to generalize the influence of ecological characteristics on such population traits may be particularly meaningful when those traits influence prospects for successful management interventions. To characterize variability in invasive Brown Treesnake population attributes within and among habitat types, we conducted systematic and seasonally-balanced surveys, collecting 100 snakes from each of 18 sites: three replicates within each of six major habitat types comprising 95% of Guam's geographic expanse. Our study constitutes one of the most comprehensive and controlled samplings of any published snake study. Quantile regression on snake size and body condition indicated significant ecological heterogeneity, with a general trend of relative consistency of size classes and body conditions within and among scrub and Leucaena forest habitat types and more heterogeneity among ravine forest, savanna, and urban residential sites. Larger and more robust snakes were found within some savanna and urban habitat replicates, likely due to relative availability of larger prey. Compared to more homogeneous samples in the wet season, variability in size distributions and body conditions was greater during the dry season. Although there is evidence of habitat influencing Brown Treesnake populations at localized scales (e.g., the higher prevalence of larger snakes-particularly males-in savanna and urban sites), the level of variability among sites within habitat types indicates little ability to make meaningful predictions about these traits at unsampled locations. Seasonal variability within sites and habitats indicates that localized population characterization should include sampling in both wet and dry seasons. Extreme values at single replicates occasionally influenced overall habitat patterns, while pooling replicates masked variability among sites. A full understanding of population characteristics should include an assessment of variability both at the site and habitat level.

Public goods games in populations with fluctuating size.

PubMed

McAvoy, Alex; Fraiman, Nicolas; Hauert, Christoph; Wakeley, John; Nowak, Martin A

2018-05-01

Many mathematical frameworks of evolutionary game dynamics assume that the total population size is constant and that selection affects only the relative frequency of strategies. Here, we consider evolutionary game dynamics in an extended Wright-Fisher process with variable population size. In such a scenario, it is possible that the entire population becomes extinct. Survival of the population may depend on which strategy prevails in the game dynamics. Studying cooperative dilemmas, it is a natural feature of such a model that cooperators enable survival, while defectors drive extinction. Although defectors are favored for any mixed population, random drift could lead to their elimination and the resulting pure-cooperator population could survive. On the other hand, if the defectors remain, then the population will quickly go extinct because the frequency of cooperators steadily declines and defectors alone cannot survive. In a mutation-selection model, we find that (i) a steady supply of cooperators can enable long-term population survival, provided selection is sufficiently strong, and (ii) selection can increase the abundance of cooperators but reduce their relative frequency. Thus, evolutionary game dynamics in populations with variable size generate a multifaceted notion of what constitutes a trait's long-term success. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The history of effective population size and genetic diversity in the Yellowstone grizzly (Ursus arctos): implications for conservation.

PubMed

Miller, Craig R; Waits, Lisette P

2003-04-01

Protein, mtDNA, and nuclear microsatellite DNA analyses have demonstrated that the Yellowstone grizzly bear has low levels of genetic variability compared with other Ursus arctos populations. Researchers have attributed this difference to inbreeding during a century of anthropogenic isolation and population size reduction. We test this hypothesis and assess the seriousness of genetic threats by generating microsatellite data for 110 museum specimens collected between 1912 and 1981. A loss of variability is detected, but it is much less severe than hypothesized. Variance in allele frequencies over time is used to estimate an effective population size of approximately 80 across the 20th century and >100 currently. The viability of the population is unlikely to be substantially reduced by genetic factors in the next several generations. However, gene flow from outside populations will be beneficial in avoiding inbreeding and the erosion of genetic diversity in the future.

Variables influencing allocation of capital expenditure in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muda, Iskandar; Naibaho, Revmianson

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the factors affecting capital expenditure in Indonesia. The independent variables used are The Effects of Financing Surplus, Total Population and Regional Sizes and the dependent variable used is The Effects of Financing Surplus. This type of research is a causal associative research. The type of data used is secondary data in severals provinces in Indonesia with multiple regression analysis. The results show significantly the determinants of capital expenditure allocation in Indonesia are affected by Financing Surplus, Total Population and Regional Sizes.

Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

2017-05-01

Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

An audit of the statistics and the comparison with the parameter in the population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bujang, Mohamad Adam; Sa'at, Nadiah; Joys, A. Reena; Ali, Mariana Mohamad

2015-10-01

The sufficient sample size that is needed to closely estimate the statistics for particular parameters are use to be an issue. Although sample size might had been calculated referring to objective of the study, however, it is difficult to confirm whether the statistics are closed with the parameter for a particular population. All these while, guideline that uses a p-value less than 0.05 is widely used as inferential evidence. Therefore, this study had audited results that were analyzed from various sub sample and statistical analyses and had compared the results with the parameters in three different populations. Eight types of statistical analysis and eight sub samples for each statistical analysis were analyzed. Results found that the statistics were consistent and were closed to the parameters when the sample study covered at least 15% to 35% of population. Larger sample size is needed to estimate parameter that involve with categorical variables compared with numerical variables. Sample sizes with 300 to 500 are sufficient to estimate the parameters for medium size of population.

Anthropometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcconville, J. T.; Laubach, L. L.

1978-01-01

Data on body-size measurement are presented to aid in spacecraft design. Tabulated dimensional anthropometric data on 59 variables for 12 selected populations are given. The variables chosen were those judged most relevant to the manned space program. A glossary of anatomical and anthropometric terms is included. Selected body dimensions of males and females from the potential astronaut population projected to the 1980-1990 time frame are given. Illustrations of drawing-board manikins based on those anticipated body sizes are included.

Contemporary and historic factors influence differently genetic differentiation and diversity in a tropical palm

PubMed Central

da Silva Carvalho, C; Ribeiro, M C; Côrtes, M C; Galetti, M; Collevatti, R G

2015-01-01

Population genetics theory predicts loss in genetic variability because of drift and inbreeding in isolated plant populations; however, it has been argued that long-distance pollination and seed dispersal may be able to maintain gene flow, even in highly fragmented landscapes. We tested how historical effective population size, historical migration and contemporary landscape structure, such as forest cover, patch isolation and matrix resistance, affect genetic variability and differentiation of seedlings in a tropical palm (Euterpe edulis) in a human-modified rainforest. We sampled 16 sites within five landscapes in the Brazilian Atlantic forest and assessed genetic variability and differentiation using eight microsatellite loci. Using a model selection approach, none of the covariates explained the variation observed in inbreeding coefficients among populations. The variation in genetic diversity among sites was best explained by historical effective population size. Allelic richness was best explained by historical effective population size and matrix resistance, whereas genetic differentiation was explained by matrix resistance. Coalescence analysis revealed high historical migration between sites within landscapes and constant historical population sizes, showing that the genetic differentiation is most likely due to recent changes caused by habitat loss and fragmentation. Overall, recent landscape changes have a greater influence on among-population genetic variation than historical gene flow process. As immediate restoration actions in landscapes with low forest amount, the development of more permeable matrices to allow the movement of pollinators and seed dispersers may be an effective strategy to maintain microevolutionary processes. PMID:25873150

Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

PubMed

Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

2011-01-01

Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of imperiled species.

A critical assessment of estimating census population size from genetic population size (or vice versa) in three fishes.

PubMed

Yates, Matthew Carl; Bernos, Thais A; Fraser, Dylan J

2017-10-01

Technological and methodological advances have facilitated the use of genetic data to infer census population size (N c ) in natural populations, particularly where traditional mark-and-recapture is challenging. The effective number of breeders (N b ) describes how many adults effectively contribute to a cohort and is often correlated with N c . Predicting N c from N b or vice versa in species with overlapping generations has important implications for conservation by permitting (i) estimation of the more difficult to quantify variable and (ii) inferences of N b /N c relationships in related species lacking data. We quantitatively synthesized N b /N c relationships in three salmonid fishes where sufficient data have recently accumulated. Mixed-effects models were analysed in which each variable was included as a dependent variable or predictor term (N b from N c and vice versa). Species-dependent N b /N c slope estimates were significantly positive in two of three species. Variation in species slopes was likely due to varying life histories and reinforce caution when inferring N b /N c from taxonomically related species. Models provided maximum probable estimates for N b and N c for two species. However, study, population and year effects explained substantial amounts of variation (39%-57%). Consequently, prediction intervals were wide and included or were close to zero for all population sizes and species; model predictive utility was limited. Cost-benefit trade-offs when estimating N b and/or N c were also discussed using a real-world system example. Our findings based on salmonids suggest that no short cuts currently exist when estimating population size and researchers should focus on quantifying the variable of interest or be aware of caveats when inferring the desired variable because of cost or logistics. We caution that the salmonid species examined share life-history traits that may obscure relationships between N b and N c . Sufficient data on other taxa were unavailable; additional research examining N b /N c relationships in species with potentially relevant life-history trait differences (e.g., differing survival curves) is needed.

Waterfowl mortality factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Beattie, Kirk H.

1989-01-01

The objectives of waterfowl management in North America involve population size and harvest. Any management action intended to influence population size must do so through one of four demographic variables: reproduction, mortality, immigration, and emigration. Mortality is especially important because hunting can be strongly influenced by management.

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

PubMed

Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

2003-06-01

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

Conserving genomic variability in large mammals: Effect of population fluctuations and variance in male reproductive success on variability in Yellowstone bison

Treesearch

Andres Perez-Figueroa; Rick L. Wallen; Tiago Antao; Jason A. Coombs; Michael K. Schwartz; P. J. White; Gordon Luikart

2012-01-01

Loss of genetic variation through genetic drift can reduce population viability. However, relatively little is known about loss of variation caused by the combination of fluctuating population size and variance in reproductive success in age structured populations. We built an individual-based computer simulation model to examine how actual culling and hunting...

Experimental Population Genetics in the Introductory Genetics Laboratory Using "Drosophila" as a Model Organism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Ronald; Kennon, Tillman

2009-01-01

Hypotheses of population genetics are derived and tested by students in the introductory genetics laboratory classroom as they explore the effects of biotic variables (physical traits of fruit flies) and abiotic variables (island size and distance) on fruit fly populations. In addition to this hypothesis-driven experiment, the development of…

Measuring Spatial Accessibility of Health Care Providers – Introduction of a Variable Distance Decay Function within the Floating Catchment Area (FCA) Method

PubMed Central

Groneberg, David A.

2016-01-01

We integrated recent improvements within the floating catchment area (FCA) method family into an integrated ‘iFCA`method. Within this method we focused on the distance decay function and its parameter. So far only distance decay functions with constant parameters have been applied. Therefore, we developed a variable distance decay function to be used within the FCA method. We were able to replace the impedance coefficient β by readily available distribution parameter (i.e. median and standard deviation (SD)) within a logistic based distance decay function. Hence, the function is shaped individually for every single population location by the median and SD of all population-to-provider distances within a global catchment size. Theoretical application of the variable distance decay function showed conceptually sound results. Furthermore, the existence of effective variable catchment sizes defined by the asymptotic approach to zero of the distance decay function was revealed, satisfying the need for variable catchment sizes. The application of the iFCA method within an urban case study in Berlin (Germany) confirmed the theoretical fit of the suggested method. In summary, we introduced for the first time, a variable distance decay function within an integrated FCA method. This function accounts for individual travel behaviors determined by the distribution of providers. Additionally, the function inherits effective variable catchment sizes and therefore obviates the need for determining variable catchment sizes separately. PMID:27391649

Interspecific and intraspecific variation in seed size and germination requirements of Sarracenia (Sarraceniaceae).

PubMed

Ellison, A M

2001-03-01

Seed size and germination requirements of eight (of nine) Sarracenia species, and 13 populations of S. purpurea were studied. All species except for S. purpurea are restricted to the southeastern United States, whereas S. purpurea ranges across Canada, southward along the eastern United States into Maryland and Virginia (S. purpurea ssp. purpurea), and from New Jersey southward into northern Florida and the coast of the Gulf of Mexico (S. purpurea ssp. venosa). I tested the hypotheses that dormancy-breaking requirements vary predictably among species across a latitudinal gradient. I also sought to determine whether seed size and germination requirements were useful characters for resolving systematic and phylogenetic questions within this genus. Seed size varied significantly among species, but variability in seed size within S. purpurea exceeded the variability in seed size observed across all eight species studied. Seeds of all species are morphophysiologically dormant upon dispersal. Length of required cool, moist pretreatment varied among species, and germination in higher latitude populations is enhanced with longer pretreatment. In contrast, variability in germination requirements of subspecies, varieties, and populations of the geographically wide-ranging S. purpurea was not related clearly to geographic location (latitude or elevation). Germination requirements do not map onto a proposed phylogeny of Sarracenia, but observed differences in germination requirements of S. purpurea ssp. venosa var. burkii relative to other populations of S. purpurea support the recent proposal to elevate this variety to species status.

Geometric morphometric analysis of Colombian Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) reveals significant effect of environmental factors on wing traits and presence of a metapopulation

PubMed Central

Gómez, Giovan F.; Márquez, Edna J.; Gutiérrez, Lina A.; Conn, Jan E.; Correa, Margarita M.

2015-01-01

Anopheles albimanus is a major malaria mosquito vector in Colombia. In the present study, wing variability (size and shape) in An. albimanus populations from Colombian Maracaibo and Chocó bio-geographical eco-regions and the relationship of these phenotypic traits with environmental factors were evaluated. Microsatellite and morphometric data facilitated a comparison of the genetic and phenetic structure of this species. Wing size was influenced by elevation and relative humidity, whereas wing shape was affected by these two variables and also by rainfall, latitude, temperature and eco-region. Significant differences in mean shape between populations and eco-regions were detected, but they were smaller than those at the intra-population level. Correct assignment based on wing shape was low at the population level (<58%) and only slightly higher (>70%) at the eco-regional level, supporting the low population structure inferred from microsatellite data. Wing size was similar among populations with no significant differences between eco-regions. Population relationships in the genetic tree did not agree with those from the morphometric data; however, both datasets consistently reinforced a panmictic population of An. albimanus. Overall, site-specific population differentiation is not strongly supported by wing traits or genotypic data. We hypothesize that the metapopulation structure of An. albimanus throughout these Colombian eco-regions is favoring plasticity in wing traits, a relevant characteristic of species living under variable environmental conditions and colonizing new habitats. PMID:24704285

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

PubMed

Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

2011-04-01

The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Constancy and asynchrony of Osmoderma eremita populations in tree hollows.

PubMed

Ranius, Thomas

2001-01-01

A species rich beetle fauna is associated with old, hollow trees. Many of these species are regarded as endangered, but there is little understanding of the population structure and extinction risks of these species. In this study I show that one of the most endangered beetles, Osmoderma eremita, has a population structure which conforms to that of a metapopulation, with each tree possibly sustaining a local population. This was revealed by performing a mark-release-recapture experiment in 26 trees over a 5-year period. The spatial variability between trees was much greater than temporal variability between years. The population size was on average 11 adults tree -1 year -1 , but differed widely between trees (0-85 adults tree -1 year -1 ). The population size in each tree varied moderately between years [mean coefficient of variation (C.V.)=0.51], but more widely than from sampling errors alone (P=0.008, Monte Carlo simulation). The population size variability in all trees combined, however, was not larger than expected from sampling errors alone in a constant population (C.V.=0.15, P=0.335, Monte Carlo simulation). Thus, the fluctuations of local populations cancel each other out when they are added together. This pattern can arise only when the fluctuations occur asynchronously between trees. The asynchrony of the fluctuations justifies the assumption usually made in metapopulation modelling, that local populations within a metapopulation fluctuate independently of one another. The asynchrony might greatly increase persistence time at the metapopulation level (per stand), compared to the local population level (per tree). The total population size of O. eremita in the study area was estimated to be 3,900 individuals. Other localities sustaining O. eremita are smaller in area, and most of these must be enlarged to allow long-term metapopulation persistence and to satisfy genetic considerations of the O. eremita populations.

Relationships between nesting populations of wading birds and habitat features along the Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, R.M.; Spendelow, J.A.; Geissler, P.H.; Williams, B.K.; Whitman, William R.; Meredith, William H.

1987-01-01

Using previously published atlas data for 122 mixed-species wading bird colonies on islands along the Atlantic coast (Maine to Florida, 1976-77), we examined relationships between population sizes of 11 species of egrets, herons, ibises, and wood storks (Mycteria americana) and nine habitat variables. On nautical charts, we measured four island characteristics (area, length, width, shape), three isolation factors (distances to nearest island, mainland, and a water barrier),, and two variables related to potential feeding habitat within 5 km of the center of the colony (wetland area and land-water interface, i.e., the linear distance between the marsh/upland and all water bodies within the same 5-km radius). One univariable and five multivariable .procedures were used to determine which habitat features were best related to population size .(all species combined). Multicollinearity problems among the variables limited interpretation for most procedures. Both univariable and the multivariable procedures indicated that land-water interface was the most important of the nine variables, but for all models, less than 10% of the total variance was explained (rz is less than 0.10). The size of the colony was not related to the amount of wetland area (within 5-km).per se. Colony data showed better 'structure' when examined on the basis of geographic and disturbance gradients. Population sizes of colonies near man-altered habitats were compared with those surrounded by relatively natural habitats in three geographic zones: north, middle, and south. Significant differences were found in colony size among the three zones (south largest) and between disturbance types. Surprisingly, in all three zones, colonies near man-altered areas were larger on average than those near more natural habitats in this region. A possible reason for this difference is suggested.

Distribution and predictors of wing shape and size variability in three sister species of solitary bees

PubMed Central

Prunier, Jérôme G.; Dewulf, Alexandre; Kuhlmann, Michael; Michez, Denis

2017-01-01

Morphological traits can be highly variable over time in a particular geographical area. Different selective pressures shape those traits, which is crucial in evolutionary biology. Among these traits, insect wing morphometry has already been widely used to describe phenotypic variability at the inter-specific level. On the contrary, fewer studies have focused on intra-specific wing morphometric variability. Yet, such investigations are relevant to study potential convergences of variation that could highlight micro-evolutionary processes. The recent sampling and sequencing of three solitary bees of the genus Melitta across their entire species range provides an excellent opportunity to jointly analyse genetic and morphometric variability. In the present study, we first aim to analyse the spatial distribution of the wing shape and centroid size (used as a proxy for body size) variability. Secondly, we aim to test different potential predictors of this variability at both the intra- and inter-population levels, which includes genetic variability, but also geographic locations and distances, elevation, annual mean temperature and precipitation. The comparison of spatial distribution of intra-population morphometric diversity does not reveal any convergent pattern between species, thus undermining the assumption of a potential local and selective adaptation at the population level. Regarding intra-specific wing shape differentiation, our results reveal that some tested predictors, such as geographic and genetic distances, are associated with a significant correlation for some species. However, none of these predictors are systematically identified for the three species as an important factor that could explain the intra-specific morphometric variability. As a conclusion, for the three solitary bee species and at the scale of this study, our results clearly tend to discard the assumption of the existence of a common pattern of intra-specific signal/structure within the intra-specific wing shape and body size variability. PMID:28273178

Estimating an Effect Size in One-Way Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steyn, H. S., Jr.; Ellis, S. M.

2009-01-01

When two or more univariate population means are compared, the proportion of variation in the dependent variable accounted for by population group membership is eta-squared. This effect size can be generalized by using multivariate measures of association, based on the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) statistics, to establish whether…

Population biology of Avena : IX. Gene flow and neighborhood size in relation to microgeographic variation in Avena barbata.

PubMed

Rai, Kedar N; Jain, Subodh K

1982-06-01

Pollen and seed dispersal patterns were analyzed in both natural and experimental populations of Avena barbata. Localized estimates of gene flow rates and plant densities gave estimates of neighborhood size in the range of 40 to 400 plants; the estimates of mean rate and distance of gene flow seemed to vary widely due to variable wind direction, rodent activity, microsite heterogeneity, etc. The relative sizes of neighborhoods in several populations were correlated with the patchy distribution of different genotypes (scored for lemma color and leaf sheath hairiness) within short distances, but patch sizes had a wide range among different sites. Highly localized gene flow patterns seemed to account for the observed pattern of highly patchy variation even when the dispersal curves for both pollen and seed were platykurtic in many cases. Measures of the stability of patches in terms of their size, dispersion in space and genetic structure in time are needed in order to sort out the relative roles of founder effects, random drift (due to small neighborhood size), and highly localized selection. However, our observations suggest that many variables and stochastic processes are involved in such studies so as to allow only weak inference about the underlying role of natural selection, drift and factors of population regulatien.

Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

PubMed

Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

2008-01-01

Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, L.C.; Weisenberger, M.E.

2005-01-01

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish.

PubMed

Sakaris, Peter C; Irwin, Elise R

2010-03-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotic fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes.

Comparative tests of ectoparasite species richness in seabirds

PubMed Central

Hughes, Joseph; Page, Roderic DM

2007-01-01

Background The diversity of parasites attacking a host varies substantially among different host species. Understanding the factors that explain these patterns of parasite diversity is critical to identifying the ecological principles underlying biodiversity. Seabirds (Charadriiformes, Pelecaniformes and Procellariiformes) and their ectoparasitic lice (Insecta: Phthiraptera) are ideal model groups in which to study correlates of parasite species richness. We evaluated the relative importance of morphological (body size, body weight, wingspan, bill length), life-history (longevity, clutch size), ecological (population size, geographical range) and behavioural (diving versus non-diving) variables as predictors of louse diversity on 413 seabird hosts species. Diversity was measured at the level of louse suborder, genus, and species, and uneven sampling of hosts was controlled for using literature citations as a proxy for sampling effort. Results The only variable consistently correlated with louse diversity was host population size and to a lesser extent geographic range. Other variables such as clutch size, longevity, morphological and behavioural variables including body mass showed inconsistent patterns dependent on the method of analysis. Conclusion The comparative analysis presented herein is (to our knowledge) the first to test correlates of parasite species richness in seabirds. We believe that the comparative data and phylogeny provide a valuable framework for testing future evolutionary hypotheses relating to the diversity and distribution of parasites on seabirds. PMID:18005412

Inventory implications of using sampling variances in estimation of growth model coefficients

Treesearch

Albert R. Stage; William R. Wykoff

2000-01-01

Variables based on stand densities or stocking have sampling errors that depend on the relation of tree size to plot size and on the spatial structure of the population, ignoring the sampling errors of such variables, which include most measures of competition used in both distance-dependent and distance-independent growth models, can bias the predictions obtained from...

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2008-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2012-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Genetic differentiation for size at first reproduction through male versus female functions in the widespread Mediterranean tree Pinus pinaster.

PubMed

Santos-del-Blanco, L; Climent, J; González-Martínez, S C; Pannell, J R

2012-11-01

The study of local adaptation in plant reproductive traits has received substantial attention in short-lived species, but studies conducted on forest trees are scarce. This lack of research on long-lived species represents an important gap in our knowledge, because inferences about selection on the reproduction and life history of short-lived species cannot necessarily be extrapolated to trees. This study considers whether the size for first reproduction is locally adapted across a broad geographical range of the Mediterranean conifer species Pinus pinaster. In particular, the study investigates whether this monoecious species varies genetically among populations in terms of whether individuals start to reproduce through their male function, their female function or both sexual functions simultaneously. Whether differences among populations could be attributed to local adaptation across a climatic gradient is then considered. Male and female reproduction and growth were measured during early stages of sexual maturity of a P. pinaster common garden comprising 23 populations sampled across the species range. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess genetic variability of early reproductive life-history traits. Environmental correlations with reproductive life-history traits were tested after controlling for neutral genetic structure provided by 12 nuclear simple sequence repeat markers. Trees tended to reproduce first through their male function, at a size (height) that varied little among source populations. The transition to female reproduction was slower, showed higher levels of variability and was negatively correlated with vegetative growth traits. Several female reproductive traits were correlated with a gradient of growth conditions, even after accounting for neutral genetic structure, with populations from more unfavourable sites tending to commence female reproduction at a lower individual size. The study represents the first report of genetic variability among populations for differences in the threshold size for first reproduction between male and female sexual functions in a tree species. The relatively uniform size at which individuals begin reproducing through their male function probably represents the fact that pollen dispersal is also relatively invariant among sites. However, the genetic variability in the timing of female reproduction probably reflects environment-dependent costs of cone production. The results also suggest that early sex allocation in this species might evolve under constraints that do not apply to other conifers.

Genetic differentiation for size at first reproduction through male versus female functions in the widespread Mediterranean tree Pinus pinaster

PubMed Central

Santos-del-Blanco, L.; Climent, J.; González-Martínez, S. C.; Pannell, J. R.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims The study of local adaptation in plant reproductive traits has received substantial attention in short-lived species, but studies conducted on forest trees are scarce. This lack of research on long-lived species represents an important gap in our knowledge, because inferences about selection on the reproduction and life history of short-lived species cannot necessarily be extrapolated to trees. This study considers whether the size for first reproduction is locally adapted across a broad geographical range of the Mediterranean conifer species Pinus pinaster. In particular, the study investigates whether this monoecious species varies genetically among populations in terms of whether individuals start to reproduce through their male function, their female function or both sexual functions simultaneously. Whether differences among populations could be attributed to local adaptation across a climatic gradient is then considered. Methods Male and female reproduction and growth were measured during early stages of sexual maturity of a P. pinaster common garden comprising 23 populations sampled across the species range. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess genetic variability of early reproductive life-history traits. Environmental correlations with reproductive life-history traits were tested after controlling for neutral genetic structure provided by 12 nuclear simple sequence repeat markers. Key Results Trees tended to reproduce first through their male function, at a size (height) that varied little among source populations. The transition to female reproduction was slower, showed higher levels of variability and was negatively correlated with vegetative growth traits. Several female reproductive traits were correlated with a gradient of growth conditions, even after accounting for neutral genetic structure, with populations from more unfavourable sites tending to commence female reproduction at a lower individual size. Conclusions The study represents the first report of genetic variability among populations for differences in the threshold size for first reproduction between male and female sexual functions in a tree species. The relatively uniform size at which individuals begin reproducing through their male function probably represents the fact that pollen dispersal is also relatively invariant among sites. However, the genetic variability in the timing of female reproduction probably reflects environment-dependent costs of cone production. The results also suggest that early sex allocation in this species might evolve under constraints that do not apply to other conifers. PMID:23002272

Assessment and Mapping of Forest Parcel Sizes

Treesearch

Brett J. Butler; Susan L. King

2005-01-01

A method for analyzing and mapping forest parcel sizes in the Northeastern United States is presented. A decision tree model was created that predicts forest parcel size from spatially explicit predictor variables: population density, State, percentage forest land cover, and road density. The model correctly predicted parcel size for 60 percent of the observations in a...

Shape variation in the human pelvis and limb skeleton: Implications for obstetric adaptation.

PubMed

Kurki, Helen K; Decrausaz, Sarah-Louise

2016-04-01

Under the obstetrical dilemma (OD) hypothesis, selection acts on the human female pelvis to ensure a sufficiently sized obstetric canal for birthing a large-brained, broad shouldered neonate, while bipedal locomotion selects for a narrower and smaller pelvis. Despite this female-specific stabilizing selection, variability of linear dimensions of the pelvic canal and overall size are not reduced in females, suggesting shape may instead be variable among females of a population. Female canal shape has been shown to vary among populations, while male canal shape does not. Within this context, we examine within-population canal shape variation in comparison with that of noncanal aspects of the pelvis and the limbs. Nine skeletal samples (total female n = 101, male n = 117) representing diverse body sizes and shapes were included. Principal components analysis was applied to size-adjusted variables of each skeletal region. A multivariate variance was calculated using the weighted PC scores for all components in each model and F-ratios used to assess differences in within-population variances between sexes and skeletal regions. Within both sexes, multivariate canal shape variance is significantly greater than noncanal pelvis and limb variances, while limb variance is greater than noncanal pelvis variance in some populations. Multivariate shape variation is not consistently different between the sexes in any of the skeletal regions. Diverse selective pressures, including obstetrics, locomotion, load carrying, and others may act on canal shape, as well as genetic drift and plasticity, thus increasing variation in morphospace while protecting obstetric sufficiency. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

Environmental variability and population dynamics: Do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H.; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D.; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

2016-01-01

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Environmental variability and population dynamics: do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

PubMed

Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

2016-10-01

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively "fast species" and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively "slow species" and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Density-Dependent Regulation of Brook Trout Population Dynamics along a Core-Periphery Distribution Gradient in a Central Appalachian Watershed

PubMed Central

Huntsman, Brock M.; Petty, J. Todd

2014-01-01

Spatial population models predict strong density-dependence and relatively stable population dynamics near the core of a species' distribution with increasing variance and importance of density-independent processes operating towards the population periphery. Using a 10-year data set and an information-theoretic approach, we tested a series of candidate models considering density-dependent and density-independent controls on brook trout population dynamics across a core-periphery distribution gradient within a central Appalachian watershed. We sampled seven sub-populations with study sites ranging in drainage area from 1.3–60 km2 and long-term average densities ranging from 0.335–0.006 trout/m. Modeled response variables included per capita population growth rate of young-of-the-year, adult, and total brook trout. We also quantified a stock-recruitment relationship for the headwater population and coefficients of variability in mean trout density for all sub-populations over time. Density-dependent regulation was prevalent throughout the study area regardless of stream size. However, density-independent temperature models carried substantial weight and likely reflect the effect of year-to-year variability in water temperature on trout dispersal between cold tributaries and warm main stems. Estimated adult carrying capacities decreased exponentially with increasing stream size from 0.24 trout/m in headwaters to 0.005 trout/m in the main stem. Finally, temporal variance in brook trout population size was lowest in the high-density headwater population, tended to peak in mid-sized streams and declined slightly in the largest streams with the lowest densities. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that local density-dependent processes have a strong control on brook trout dynamics across the entire distribution gradient. However, the mechanisms of regulation likely shift from competition for limited food and space in headwater streams to competition for thermal refugia in larger main stems. It also is likely that source-sink dynamics and dispersal from small headwater habitats may partially influence brook trout population dynamics in the main stem. PMID:24618602

Effects of landscape and patch-level attributes on regional population persistence

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat patch size and isolation are often described as the key habitat variables influencing population dynamics. Yet habitat quality may also play an important role in influencing the regional persistence of spatially structured populations as the value or density of resources ...

Population-regulating processes during the adult phase in flatfish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rijnsdorp, A. D.

Flatfish support major fisheries and the study of regulatory processes are of paramount importance for evaluating the resilience of the resource to exploitation. This paper reviews the evidence for processes operating during the adult phase that may 1. generate interannual variability in recruitment; 2. contribute to population regulation through density-dependent growth, density-dependent ripening of adults and density-dependent egg production. With regard to (1), there is evidence that in the adult phase processes do occur that may generate recruitment variability through variation in size-specific fecundity, contraction of spawning season, reduction in egg quality, change in sex ratio and size composition of the adult population. However, time series of recruitment do not provide support for this hypothesis. With regard to (2), there is ample evidence that exploitation of flatfish coincides with an increase in growth, although the mechanisms involved are not always clear. The presence of density-dependent growth in the adult phase of unexploited populations appears to be the most likely explanation in some cases. From the early years of exploitation of flatfish stocks inhabiting cold waters, evidence exists that adult fish do not spawn each year. Fecundity schedules show annual variations, but the available information suggests that size-specific fecundity is stable over a broad range of population abundance and may only decrease at high population abundance. The analysis is complicated by the possibility of a trade-off between egg numbers and egg size. Nevertheless, a density-dependent decrease in growth will automatically result in a decrease in absolute fecundity because of the reduced body size. The potential contribution of these regulatory effects on population regulation is explored. Results indicate that density-dependent ripening and absolute fecundity, mediated through density-dependent growth, may control recruitment at high levels of population abundance. The effect of a density-dependent decrease in size-specific fecundity seems to play a minor role, although this role may become important at extremely high levels of population abundance.

Rule reversal: Ecogeographical patterns of body size variation in the common treeshrew (Mammalia, Scandentia)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargis, Eric J.; Millien, Virginie; Woodman, Neal; Olson, Link E.

2018-01-01

There are a number of ecogeographical “rules” that describe patterns of geographical variation among organisms. The island rule predicts that populations of larger mammals on islands evolve smaller mean body size than their mainland counterparts, whereas smaller‐bodied mammals evolve larger size. Bergmann's rule predicts that populations of a species in colder climates (generally at higher latitudes) have larger mean body sizes than conspecifics in warmer climates (at lower latitudes). These two rules are rarely tested together and neither has been rigorously tested in treeshrews, a clade of small‐bodied mammals in their own order (Scandentia) broadly distributed in mainland Southeast Asia and on islands throughout much of the Sunda Shelf. The common treeshrew, Tupaia glis, is an excellent candidate for study and was used to test these two rules simultaneously for the first time in treeshrews. This species is distributed on the Malay Peninsula and several offshore islands east, west, and south of the mainland. Using craniodental dimensions as a proxy for body size, we investigated how island size, distance from the mainland, and maximum sea depth between the mainland and the islands relate to body size of 13 insular T. glis populations while also controlling for latitude and correlation among variables. We found a strong negative effect of latitude on body size in the common treeshrew, indicating the inverse of Bergmann's rule. We did not detect any overall difference in body size between the island and mainland populations. However, there was an effect of island area and maximum sea depth on body size among island populations. Although there is a strong latitudinal effect on body size, neither Bergmann's rule nor the island rule applies to the common treeshrew. The results of our analyses demonstrate the necessity of assessing multiple variables simultaneously in studies of ecogeographical rules.

Phenotypic plasticity in clutch size regulation among populations of a potential invasive fruit fly from environments that vary in host heterogeneity and isolation.

PubMed

Aluja, M; Birke, A; Díaz-Fleischer, F; Rull, J

2018-05-21

Phenotypic plasticity is thought to evolve in response to environmental unpredictability and can shield genotypes from selection. However, selection can also act on plastic traits. Egg-laying behaviour, including clutch size regulation, is a plastic behavioural trait among tephritid fruit flies. We compared plasticity in clutch size regulation among females of Anastrepha ludens populations stemming from environments that differed in the degree of predictability in egg-laying opportunities. Clutch size regulation in response to hosts of different sizes was compared among flies from (a) a wild, highly isolated population, (b) a wild population that switches seasonally from a small wild host fruit that varies greatly in abundance to an abundant large-sized commercial host, and (c) a laboratory population. Flies from all three populations adjusted clutch number and size according to host size. However, flies from the heterogeneous wild environment were more plastic in adjusting clutch size than flies from agricultural settings that also laid fewer eggs; yet both populations were more plastic in adjusting clutch size in line with host size when compared with laboratory females. When wild and orchard females encountered the largest host, clutch size was extremely variable and egg regulation did not follow the same trend. Heterogeneity in host availability in space and time appears to be as important as seasonal variation in host size in maintaining plastic clutch size regulation behaviour. In stable environments, there was a clear reduction in the plasticity of these traits.

REGULATION OF GEOGRAPHIC VARIABILITY IN HAPLOID:DIPLOD RATIOS OF BIPHASIC SEAWEED LIFE CYCLES(1).

PubMed

da Silva Vieira, Vasco Manuel Nobre de Carvalho; Santos, Rui Orlando Pimenta

2012-08-01

The relative abundance of haploid and diploid individuals (H:D) in isomorphic marine algal biphasic cycles varies spatially, but only if vital rates of haploid and diploid phases vary differently with environmental conditions (i.e. conditional differentiation between phases). Vital rates of isomorphic phases in particular environments may be determined by subtle morphological or physiological differences. Herein, we test numerically how geographic variability in H:D is regulated by conditional differentiation between isomorphic life phases and the type of life strategy of populations (i.e. life cycles dominated by reproduction, survival or growth). Simulation conditions were selected using available data on H:D spatial variability in seaweeds. Conditional differentiation between ploidy phases had a small effect on the H:D variability for species with life strategies that invest either in fertility or in growth. Conversely, species with life strategies that invest mainly in survival, exhibited high variability in H:D through a conditional differentiation in stasis (the probability of staying in the same size class), breakage (the probability of changing to a smaller size class) or growth (the probability of changing to a bigger size class). These results were consistent with observed geographic variability in H:D of natural marine algae populations. © 2012 Phycological Society of America.

Genetic variability and effective population size when local extinction and recolonization of subpopulations are frequent

PubMed Central

Maruyama, Takeo; Kimura, Motoo

1980-01-01

If a population (species) consists of n haploid lines (subpopulations) which reproduce asexually and each of which is subject to random extinction and subsequent replacement, it is shown that, at equilibrium in which mutational production of new alleles and their random extinction balance each other, the genetic diversity (1 minus the sum of squares of allelic frequencies) is given by 2Nev/(1 + 2Nev), where [Formula: see text] in which Ñ is the harmonic mean of the population size per line, n is the number of lines (assumed to be large), λ is the rate of line extinction, and v is the mutation rate (assuming the infinite neutral allele model). In a diploid population (species) consisting of n colonies, if migration takes place between colonies at the rate m (the island model) in addition to extinction and recolonization of colonies, it is shown that effective population size is [Formula: see text] If the rate of colony extinction (λ) is much larger than the migration rate of individuals, the effective population size is greatly reduced compared with the case in which no colony extinctions occur (in which case Ne = nÑ). The stepping-stone type of recolonization scheme is also considered. Bearing of these results on the interpretation of the level of genetic variability at the enzyme level observed in natural populations is discussed from the standpoint of the neutral mutation-random drift hypothesis. PMID:16592920

Common polymorphic variation in the genetically diverse African insulin gene and its association with size at birth.

PubMed

Petry, Clive J; Rayco-Solon, Pura; Fulford, Anthony J C; Stead, John D H; Wingate, Dianne L; Ong, Ken K; Sirugo, Giorgio; Prentice, Andrew M; Dunger, David B

2009-09-01

The insulin variable number of tandem repeats (INS VNTR) has been variably associated with size at birth in non-African populations. Small size at birth is a major determinant of neonatal mortality, so the INS VNTR may influence survival. We tested the hypothesis, therefore, that genetic variation around the INS VNTR in a rural Gambian population, who experience seasonal variation in nutrition and subsequently birth weight, may be associated with foetal and early growth. Six polymorphisms flanking the INS VNTR were genotyped in over 2,500 people. Significant associations were detected between the maternally inherited SNP 27 (rs689) allele and birth length [effect size 17.5 (5.2-29.8) mm; P = 0.004; n = 361]. Significant associations were also found between the maternally inherited African-specific SNP 28 (rs5506) allele and post-natal weight gain [effect size 0.19 (0.05-0.32) z score points/year; P = 0.005; n = 728). These results suggest that in the Gambian population studied there are associations between polymorphic variation in the genetically diverse INS gene and foetal and early growth characteristics, which contribute to overall polygenic associations with these traits.

Sociocultural behavior, sex-biased admixture, and effective population sizes in Central African Pygmies and non-Pygmies.

PubMed

Verdu, Paul; Becker, Noémie S A; Froment, Alain; Georges, Myriam; Grugni, Viola; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Van der Veen, Lolke; Le Bomin, Sylvie; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2013-04-01

Sociocultural phenomena, such as exogamy or phylopatry, can largely determine human sex-specific demography. In Central Africa, diverging patterns of sex-specific genetic variation have been observed between mobile hunter-gatherer Pygmies and sedentary agricultural non-Pygmies. However, their sex-specific demography remains largely unknown. Using population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation approaches, we inferred male and female effective population sizes, sex-specific migration, and admixture rates in 23 Central African Pygmy and non-Pygmy populations, genotyped for autosomal, X-linked, Y-linked, and mitochondrial markers. We found much larger effective population sizes and migration rates among non-Pygmy populations than among Pygmies, in agreement with the recent expansions and migrations of non-Pygmies and, conversely, the isolation and stationary demography of Pygmy groups. We found larger effective sizes and migration rates for males than for females for Pygmies, and vice versa for non-Pygmies. Thus, although most Pygmy populations have patrilocal customs, their sex-specific genetic patterns resemble those of matrilocal populations. In fact, our results are consistent with a lower prevalence of polygyny and patrilocality in Pygmies compared with non-Pygmies and a potential female transmission of reproductive success in Pygmies. Finally, Pygmy populations showed variable admixture levels with the non-Pygmies, with often much larger introgression from male than from female lineages. Social discrimination against Pygmies triggering complex movements of spouses in intermarriages can explain these male-biased admixture patterns in a patrilocal context. We show how gender-related sociocultural phenomena can determine highly variable sex-specific demography among populations, and how population genetic approaches contrasting chromosomal types allow inferring detailed human sex-specific demographic history.

Sociocultural Behavior, Sex-Biased Admixture, and Effective Population Sizes in Central African Pygmies and Non-Pygmies

PubMed Central

Verdu, Paul; Becker, Noémie S.A.; Froment, Alain; Georges, Myriam; Grugni, Viola; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Van der Veen, Lolke; Le Bomin, Sylvie; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2013-01-01

Sociocultural phenomena, such as exogamy or phylopatry, can largely determine human sex-specific demography. In Central Africa, diverging patterns of sex-specific genetic variation have been observed between mobile hunter–gatherer Pygmies and sedentary agricultural non-Pygmies. However, their sex-specific demography remains largely unknown. Using population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation approaches, we inferred male and female effective population sizes, sex-specific migration, and admixture rates in 23 Central African Pygmy and non-Pygmy populations, genotyped for autosomal, X-linked, Y-linked, and mitochondrial markers. We found much larger effective population sizes and migration rates among non-Pygmy populations than among Pygmies, in agreement with the recent expansions and migrations of non-Pygmies and, conversely, the isolation and stationary demography of Pygmy groups. We found larger effective sizes and migration rates for males than for females for Pygmies, and vice versa for non-Pygmies. Thus, although most Pygmy populations have patrilocal customs, their sex-specific genetic patterns resemble those of matrilocal populations. In fact, our results are consistent with a lower prevalence of polygyny and patrilocality in Pygmies compared with non-Pygmies and a potential female transmission of reproductive success in Pygmies. Finally, Pygmy populations showed variable admixture levels with the non-Pygmies, with often much larger introgression from male than from female lineages. Social discrimination against Pygmies triggering complex movements of spouses in intermarriages can explain these male-biased admixture patterns in a patrilocal context. We show how gender-related sociocultural phenomena can determine highly variable sex-specific demography among populations, and how population genetic approaches contrasting chromosomal types allow inferring detailed human sex-specific demographic history. PMID:23300254

Community characteristics that attract physicians in Japan: a cross-sectional analysis of community demographic and economic factors.

PubMed

Matsumoto, Masatoshi; Inoue, Kazuo; Noguchi, Satomi; Toyokawa, Satoshi; Kajii, Eiji

2009-02-18

In many countries, there is a surplus of physicians in some communities and a shortage in others. Population size is known to be correlated with the number of physicians in a community, and is conventionally considered to represent the power of communities to attract physicians. However, associations between other demographic/economic variables and the number of physicians in a community have not been fully evaluated. This study seeks other parameters that correlate with the physician population and show which characteristics of a community determine its "attractiveness" to physicians. Associations between the number of physicians and selected demographic/economic/life-related variables of all of Japan's 3132 municipalities were examined. In order to exclude the confounding effect of community size, correlations between the physician-to-population ratio and other variable-to-population ratios or variable-to-area ratios were evaluated with simple correlation and multiple regression analyses. The equity of physician distribution against each variable was evaluated by the orenz curve and Gini index. Among the 21 variables selected, the service industry workers-to-population ratio (0.543), commercial land price (0.527), sales of goods per person (0.472), and daytime population density (0.451) were better correlated with the physician-to-population ratio than was population density (0.409). Multiple regression analysis showed that the service industry worker-to-population ratio, the daytime population density, and the elderly rate were each independently correlated with the physician-to-population ratio (standardized regression coefficient 0.393, 0.355, 0.089 respectively; each p<0.001). Equity of physician distribution was higher against service industry population (Gini index=0.26) and daytime population (0.28) than against population (0.33). Daytime population and service industry population in a municipality are better parameters of community attractiveness to physicians than population. Because attractiveness is supposed to consist of medical demand and the amenities of urban life, the two parameters may represent the amount of medical demand and/or the extent of urban amenities of the community more precisely than population does. The conventional demand-supply analysis based solely on population as the demand parameter may overestimate the inequity of the physician distribution among communities.

Random Distribution Pattern and Non-adaptivity of Genome Size in a Highly Variable Population of Festuca pallens

PubMed Central

Šmarda, Petr; Bureš, Petr; Horová, Lucie

2007-01-01

Background and Aims The spatial and statistical distribution of genome sizes and the adaptivity of genome size to some types of habitat, vegetation or microclimatic conditions were investigated in a tetraploid population of Festuca pallens. The population was previously documented to vary highly in genome size and is assumed as a model for the study of the initial stages of genome size differentiation. Methods Using DAPI flow cytometry, samples were measured repeatedly with diploid Festuca pallens as the internal standard. Altogether 172 plants from 57 plots (2·25 m2), distributed in contrasting habitats over the whole locality in South Moravia, Czech Republic, were sampled. The differences in DNA content were confirmed by the double peaks of simultaneously measured samples. Key Results At maximum, a 1·115-fold difference in genome size was observed. The statistical distribution of genome sizes was found to be continuous and best fits the extreme (Gumbel) distribution with rare occurrences of extremely large genomes (positive-skewed), as it is similar for the log-normal distribution of the whole Angiosperms. Even plants from the same plot frequently varied considerably in genome size and the spatial distribution of genome sizes was generally random and unautocorrelated (P > 0·05). The observed spatial pattern and the overall lack of correlations of genome size with recognized vegetation types or microclimatic conditions indicate the absence of ecological adaptivity of genome size in the studied population. Conclusions These experimental data on intraspecific genome size variability in Festuca pallens argue for the absence of natural selection and the selective non-significance of genome size in the initial stages of genome size differentiation, and corroborate the current hypothetical model of genome size evolution in Angiosperms (Bennetzen et al., 2005, Annals of Botany 95: 127–132). PMID:17565968

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

PubMed

Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

2007-04-01

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

Association between unemployment, income, education level, population size and air pollution in Czech cities: evidence for environmental inequality? A pilot national scale analysis.

PubMed

Branis, Martin; Linhartova, Martina

2012-09-01

We analyzed differentials in exposure to SO(2), PM(10) and NO(2) among Czech urban populations categorized according to education level, unemployment rate, population size and average annual salary. Altogether 39 cities were included in the analysis. The principal component analysis revealed two factors explaining 72.8% of the data variability. The first factor explaining 44.7% of the data variability included SO(2), PM(10), low education level and high unemployment, documenting that inhabitants with unfavorable socioeconomic status mainly reside in smaller cities with higher concentration levels of combustion-related air pollutants. The second factor explaining 28.1% of the data variability included NO(2), high salary, high education level and large population, suggesting that large cities with residents with higher socioeconomic status are exposed to higher levels of traffic-related air pollution. We conclude that, after more than a decade of free-market economy, the Czech Republic, a former Soviet satellite with a centrally planned economy, displays signs of a certain kind of environmental inequality, since environmental hazards are unevenly distributed among the Czech urban populations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population entropies estimates of proteins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, Wai Yee

2017-05-01

The Shannon entropy equation provides a way to estimate variability of amino acids sequences in a multiple sequence alignment of proteins. Knowledge of protein variability is useful in many areas such as vaccine design, identification of antibody binding sites, and exploration of protein 3D structural properties. In cases where the population entropies of a protein are of interest but only a small sample size can be obtained, a method based on linear regression and random subsampling can be used to estimate the population entropy. This method is useful for comparisons of entropies where the actual sequence counts differ and thus, correction for alignment size bias is needed. In the current work, an R based package named EntropyCorrect that enables estimation of population entropy is presented and an empirical study on how well this new algorithm performs on simulated dataset of various combinations of population and sample sizes is discussed. The package is available at https://github.com/lloydlow/EntropyCorrect. This article, which was originally published online on 12 May 2017, contained an error in Eq. (1), where the summation sign was missing. The corrected equation appears in the Corrigendum attached to the pdf.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

2010-01-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen; Drum, Ryan G.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Altizer, Sonia; Taylor, Orley R.; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Darius J.; Semmens, Brice X.; Erickson, Richard A.; Libby, Kaitlin; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

2017-01-01

The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Population genetic structure of a California endemic Branchiopod, Branchinecta sandiegonensis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Cathleen P.; Simovich, Marie A.; Hathaway, Stacie A.

1997-01-01

Branchinecta sandiegonensis (Crustacea: Anostraca) is a narrow range endemic fairy shrimp discontinuously distributed in ephemeral pools on coastal mesas in San Diego County, USA. Ten populations across the range of the species were subjected to allozyme analysis for eleven loci. The species exhibits low variability (P95 =9.1–45.5) and one third of the loci tested did not conform to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium expectations. The species also exhibited a high degree of genetic differentiation between populations. F ST values (fixation index) for most pairs of populations were above 0.25 (0.036–0.889).Low genetic variability and high genetic structure may result from low gene flow and founder effects due to habitat fragmentation and the lack of potential vectors for cyst dispersal. The unpredictable rainfall of the region also creates potential for variable population sizes which could affect structure and variability.

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations

PubMed Central

Anufriieva, Elena V.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

2014-01-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, asignificant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuatedbetween 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the paritiesof these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales. PMID:24668656

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations.

PubMed

Anufriieva, Elena V; Shadrin, Nickolai V

2014-03-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, a significant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuated between 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the parities of these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales.

What is a species? A new universal method to measure differentiation and assess the taxonomic rank of allopatric populations, using continuous variables

PubMed Central

Donegan, Thomas M.

2018-01-01

Abstract Existing models for assigning species, subspecies, or no taxonomic rank to populations which are geographically separated from one another were analyzed. This was done by subjecting over 3,000 pairwise comparisons of vocal or biometric data based on birds to a variety of statistical tests that have been proposed as measures of differentiation. One current model which aims to test diagnosability (Isler et al. 1998) is highly conservative, applying a hard cut-off, which excludes from consideration differentiation below diagnosis. It also includes non-overlap as a requirement, a measure which penalizes increases to sample size. The “species scoring” model of Tobias et al. (2010) involves less drastic cut-offs, but unlike Isler et al. (1998), does not control adequately for sample size and attributes scores in many cases to differentiation which is not statistically significant. Four different models of assessing effect sizes were analyzed: using both pooled and unpooled standard deviations and controlling for sample size using t-distributions or omitting to do so. Pooled standard deviations produced more conservative effect sizes when uncontrolled for sample size but less conservative effect sizes when so controlled. Pooled models require assumptions to be made that are typically elusive or unsupported for taxonomic studies. Modifications to improving these frameworks are proposed, including: (i) introducing statistical significance as a gateway to attributing any weighting to findings of differentiation; (ii) abandoning non-overlap as a test; (iii) recalibrating Tobias et al. (2010) scores based on effect sizes controlled for sample size using t-distributions. A new universal method is proposed for measuring differentiation in taxonomy using continuous variables and a formula is proposed for ranking allopatric populations. This is based first on calculating effect sizes using unpooled standard deviations, controlled for sample size using t-distributions, for a series of different variables. All non-significant results are excluded by scoring them as zero. Distance between any two populations is calculated using Euclidian summation of non-zeroed effect size scores. If the score of an allopatric pair exceeds that of a related sympatric pair, then the allopatric population can be ranked as species and, if not, then at most subspecies rank should be assigned. A spreadsheet has been programmed and is being made available which allows this and other tests of differentiation and rank studied in this paper to be rapidly analyzed. PMID:29780266

The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

PubMed

Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

2017-02-01

Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

Predator Persistence through Variability of Resource Productivity in Tritrophic Systems.

PubMed

Soudijn, Floor H; de Roos, André M

2017-12-01

The trophic structure of species communities depends on the energy transfer between trophic levels. Primary productivity varies strongly through time, challenging the persistence of species at higher trophic levels. Yet resource variability has mostly been studied in systems with only one or two trophic levels. We test the effect of variability in resource productivity in a tritrophic model system including a resource, a size-structured consumer, and a size-specific predator. The model complies with fundamental principles of mass conservation and the body-size dependence of individual-level energetics and predator-prey interactions. Surprisingly, we find that resource variability may promote predator persistence. The positive effect of variability on the predator arises through periods with starvation mortality of juvenile prey, which reduces the intraspecific competition in the prey population. With increasing variability in productivity and starvation mortality in the juvenile prey, the prey availability increases in the size range preferred by the predator. The positive effect of prey mortality on the trophic transfer efficiency depends on the biologically realistic consideration of body size-dependent and food-dependent functions for growth and reproduction in our model. Our findings show that variability may promote the trophic transfer efficiency, indicating that environmental variability may sustain species at higher trophic levels in natural ecosystems.

How well can body size represent effects of the environment on demographic rates? Disentangling correlated explanatory variables.

PubMed

Brooks, Mollie E; Mugabo, Marianne; Rodgers, Gwendolen M; Benton, Timothy G; Ozgul, Arpat

2016-03-01

Demographic rates are shaped by the interaction of past and current environments that individuals in a population experience. Past environments shape individual states via selection and plasticity, and fitness-related traits (e.g. individual size) are commonly used in demographic analyses to represent the effect of past environments on demographic rates. We quantified how well the size of individuals captures the effects of a population's past and current environments on demographic rates in a well-studied experimental system of soil mites. We decomposed these interrelated sources of variation with a novel method of multiple regression that is useful for understanding nonlinear relationships between responses and multicollinear explanatory variables. We graphically present the results using area-proportional Venn diagrams. Our novel method was developed by combining existing methods and expanding upon them. We showed that the strength of size as a proxy for the past environment varied widely among vital rates. For instance, in this organism with an income breeding life history, the environment had more effect on reproduction than individual size, but with substantial overlap indicating that size encompassed some of the effects of the past environment on fecundity. This demonstrates that the strength of size as a proxy for the past environment can vary widely among life-history processes within a species, and this variation should be taken into consideration in trait-based demographic or individual-based approaches that focus on phenotypic traits as state variables. Furthermore, the strength of a proxy will depend on what state variable(s) and what demographic rate is being examined; that is, different measures of body size (e.g. length, volume, mass, fat stores) will be better or worse proxies for various life-history processes. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

1973-01-01

The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

Population dynamics of pond zooplankton II Daphnia ambigua Scourfield

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angino, E.E.; Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.

1973-01-01

Calcium was the most important of 27 environmental components affecting density for a 50 week period. Simultaneous stepwise regression accounted for more variability in total number/1 and in the number of ovigerous females/1 than did any of the lag analyses; 1-week lag accounted for the greatest amount of variability in clutch size. Total number and clutch size were little affected by measures of food. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk b.v. Publishers.

Ecological and evolutionary influences on body size and shape in the Galápagos marine iguana (Amblyrhynchus cristatus).

PubMed

Chiari, Ylenia; Glaberman, Scott; Tarroso, Pedro; Caccone, Adalgisa; Claude, Julien

2016-07-01

Oceanic islands are often inhabited by endemic species that have undergone substantial morphological evolutionary change due to processes of multiple colonizations from various source populations, dispersal, and local adaptation. Galápagos marine iguanas are an example of an island endemic exhibiting high morphological diversity, including substantial body size variation among populations and sexes, but the causes and magnitude of this variation are not well understood. We obtained morphological measurements from marine iguanas throughout their distribution range. These data were combined with genetic and local environmental data from each population to investigate the effects of evolutionary history and environmental conditions on body size and shape variation and sexual dimorphism. Our results indicate that body size and shape are highly variable among populations. Sea surface temperature and island perimeter, but not evolutionary history as depicted by phylogeographic patterns in this species, explain variation in body size among populations. Conversely, evolutionary history, but not environmental parameters or island size, was found to influence variation in body shape among populations. Finally, in all populations except one, we found strong sexual dimorphism in body size and shape in which males are larger, with higher heads than females, while females have longer heads than males. Differences among populations suggest that plasticity and/or genetic adaptation may shape body size and shape variation in marine iguanas. This study will help target future investigations to address the contribution of plasticity versus genetic adaptation on size and shape variation in marine iguanas.

An analytical approach to top predator interference on the dynamics of a food chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senthamarai, R.; Vijayalakshmi, T.

2018-04-01

In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study of top predator interference on the dynamics of a food chain model. The mathematical model is formulated using the system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In this model, there are three state dimensionless variables, viz, size of prey population x, size of intermediate predator y and size of top predator population z. The analytical results are compared with the numerical simulation using MATLAB software and satisfactory results are noticed.

Density dependence and climate effects in Rocky Mountain elk: an application of regression with instrumental variables for population time series with sampling error.

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Creel, Michael

2009-11-01

1. Sampling error in annual estimates of population size creates two widely recognized problems for the analysis of population growth. First, if sampling error is mistakenly treated as process error, one obtains inflated estimates of the variation in true population trajectories (Staples, Taper & Dennis 2004). Second, treating sampling error as process error is thought to overestimate the importance of density dependence in population growth (Viljugrein et al. 2005; Dennis et al. 2006). 2. In ecology, state-space models are used to account for sampling error when estimating the effects of density and other variables on population growth (Staples et al. 2004; Dennis et al. 2006). In econometrics, regression with instrumental variables is a well-established method that addresses the problem of correlation between regressors and the error term, but requires fewer assumptions than state-space models (Davidson & MacKinnon 1993; Cameron & Trivedi 2005). 3. We used instrumental variables to account for sampling error and fit a generalized linear model to 472 annual observations of population size for 35 Elk Management Units in Montana, from 1928 to 2004. We compared this model with state-space models fit with the likelihood function of Dennis et al. (2006). We discuss the general advantages and disadvantages of each method. Briefly, regression with instrumental variables is valid with fewer distributional assumptions, but state-space models are more efficient when their distributional assumptions are met. 4. Both methods found that population growth was negatively related to population density and winter snow accumulation. Summer rainfall and wolf (Canis lupus) presence had much weaker effects on elk (Cervus elaphus) dynamics [though limitation by wolves is strong in some elk populations with well-established wolf populations (Creel et al. 2007; Creel & Christianson 2008)]. 5. Coupled with predictions for Montana from global and regional climate models, our results predict a substantial reduction in the limiting effect of snow accumulation on Montana elk populations in the coming decades. If other limiting factors do not operate with greater force, population growth rates would increase substantially.

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Size-dependent diffusion promotes the emergence of spatiotemporal patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lai; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Banerjee, Malay

2014-07-01

Spatiotemporal patterns, indicating the spatiotemporal variability of individual abundance, are a pronounced scenario in ecological interactions. Most of the existing models for spatiotemporal patterns treat species as homogeneous groups of individuals with average characteristics by ignoring intraspecific physiological variations at the individual level. Here we explore the impacts of size variation within species resulting from individual ontogeny, on the emergence of spatiotemporal patterns in a fully size-structured population model. We found that size dependency of animal's diffusivity greatly promotes the formation of spatiotemporal patterns, by creating regular spatiotemporal patterns out of temporal chaos. We also found that size-dependent diffusion can substitute large-amplitude base harmonics with spatiotemporal patterns with lower amplitude oscillations but with enriched harmonics. Finally, we found that the single-generation cycle is more likely to drive spatiotemporal patterns compared to predator-prey cycles, meaning that the mechanism of Hopf bifurcation might be more common than hitherto appreciated since the former cycle is more widespread than the latter in case of interacting populations. Due to the ubiquity of individual ontogeny in natural ecosystems we conclude that diffusion variability within populations is a significant driving force for the emergence of spatiotemporal patterns. Our results offer a perspective on self-organized phenomena, and pave a way to understand such phenomena in systems organized as complex ecological networks.

Stock enhancement or sea ranching? Insights from monitoring the genetic diversity, relatedness and effective population size in a seeded great scallop population (Pecten maximus).

PubMed

Morvezen, R; Boudry, P; Laroche, J; Charrier, G

2016-09-01

The mass release of hatchery-propagated stocks raises numerous questions concerning its efficiency in terms of local recruitment and effect on the genetic diversity of wild populations. A seeding program, consisting of mass release of hatchery-produced juveniles in the local naturally occurring population of great scallops (Pecten maximus L.), was initiated in the early 1980s in the Bay of Brest (France). The present study aims at evaluating whether this seeding program leads to actual population enhancement, with detectable effects on genetic diversity and effective population size, or consists of sea ranching with limited genetic consequences on the wild stock. To address this question, microsatellite-based genetic monitoring of three hatchery-born and naturally recruited populations was conducted over a 5-year period. Results showed a limited reduction in allelic richness but a strong alteration of allelic frequencies in hatchery populations, while genetic diversity appeared very stable over time in the wild populations. A temporal increase in relatedness was observed in both cultured stock and wild populations. Effective population size (Ne) estimates were low and variable in the wild population. Moreover, the application of the Ryman-Laikre model suggested a high contribution of hatchery-born scallops to the reproductive output of the wild population. Overall, the data suggest that the main objective of the seeding program, which is stock enhancement, is fulfilled. Moreover, gene flow from surrounding populations and/or the reproductive input of undetected sub-populations within the bay may buffer the Ryman-Laikre effect and ensure the retention of the local genetic variability.

Is family size related to adolescence mental hospitalization?

PubMed

Kylmänen, Paula; Hakko, Helinä; Räsänen, Pirkko; Riala, Kaisa

2010-05-15

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between family size and psychiatric disorders of underage adolescent psychiatric inpatients. The study sample consisted of 508 adolescents (age 12-17) admitted to psychiatric impatient care between April 2001 and March 2006. Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition-based psychiatric diagnoses and variables measuring family size were obtained from the Schedule for Affective Disorder and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children Present and Lifetime (K-SADS-PL). The family size of the general Finnish population was used as a reference population. There was a significant difference between the family size of the inpatient adolescents and the general population: 17.0% of adolescents came from large families (with 6 or more children) while the percentage in the general population was 3.3. A girl from a large family had an about 4-fold risk of psychosis other than schizophrenia. However, large family size was not associated with a risk for schizophrenia. Large family size was overrepresented among underage adolescents admitted for psychiatric hospitalization in Northern Finland. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the impacts of two age-related portfolio effects on recruitment variability with and without a marine reserve.

PubMed

McGilliard, Carey R; Punt, André E; Hilborn, Ray; Essington, Tim

2017-10-01

Many rockfish species are long-lived and thought to be susceptible to being overfished. Hypotheses about the importance of older female rockfish to population persistence have led to arguments that marine reserves are needed to ensure the sustainability of rockfish populations. However, the implications of these hypotheses for rockfish population dynamics are still unclear. We modeled two mechanisms by which reducing the proportion of older fish in a population has been hypothesized to influence sustainability, and explored whether these mechanisms influenced mean population dynamics and recruitment variability. We explored whether populations with these mechanisms could be managed more sustainably with a marine reserve in addition to a constant fishing mortality rate (F) than with a constant F alone. Both hypotheses can be seen as portfolio effects whereby risk of recruitment failure is spread over a "portfolio" of maternal ages. First, we modeled a spawning window effect whereby mothers of different ages spawned in different times or locations (windows) with local environmental conditions. Second, we modeled an offspring size effect whereby older mothers produced larger offspring than younger mothers, where length of a starvation period over which offspring could survive increased with maternal age. Recruitment variability resulting from both models was 55-65% lower than for models without maternal age-related portfolio effects in the absence of fishing and increased with increases in Fs for both models. An offspring size effect caused lower output reproductive rates such that the specified reproductive rate input as a model parameter was no longer the realized rate measured as the reproductive rate observed in model results; this quirk is not addressed in previous analyses of offspring size effects. We conducted a standardization such that offspring size effect and control models had the same observed reproductive rates. A comparison of long-term catch, the probability of falling below a biomass threshold, and recruitment variability over a range of exploitation rates for models with an age-related portfolio effect showed no benefit of a marine reserve implemented in addition to a constant F (as compared to a constant F alone) for populations with sedentary adults and sedentary or mobile larvae. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu Qin, E-mail: zhuqin@fudan.edu.cn; Peng Xizhe, E-mail: xzpeng@fudan.edu.cn

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects onmore » carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.« less

Spatial variation in egg size of a top predator: Interplay of body size and environmental factors?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louzao, Maite; Igual, José M.; Genovart, Meritxell; Forero, Manuela G.; Hobson, Keith A.; Oro, Daniel

2008-09-01

It is expected that nearby populations are constrained by the same ecological features shaping in turn similarity in their ecological traits. Here, we studied the spatio-temporal variability in egg size among local populations of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, a top marine predator endemic to the western Mediterranean region. Specifically we assessed whether this trait was influenced by maternal body size, as an indicator of a genetic component, and feeding ecology (through stable-carbon and nitrogen-isotope measurements), as an indicator of environmental factors. We found that egg size varied among local populations, an unexpected result at such a small spatial scale. Body size differences at the local population level only partially explained such differences. Blood isotope measurements also differed among local populations. Values of δ 15N suggested inter-population differences in trophic level, showing a similar general pattern with egg size, and suggesting a nutritional link between them whereby egg size was affected by differences in feeding resources and/or behaviour. Values of δ 13C suggested that local populations did not differ in foraging habits with respect to benthic- vs. pelagic-based food-webs. Egg size did not vary among years as did breeding performance, suggesting that a differential temporal window could affect both breeding parameters in relation to food availability. The absence of a relationship between breeding performance and egg size suggested that larger eggs might only confer an advantage during harsh conditions. Alternatively parental quality could greatly affect breeding performance. We showed that inter-population differences in egg size could be influenced by both body size and environmental factors.

Relationships of maternal body size and morphology with egg and clutch size in the diamondback terrapin, Malaclemys terrapin (Testudines: Emydidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kern, Maximilian M.; Guzy, Jacquelyn C.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Gibbons, J. Whitfield; Dorcas, Michael E.

2016-01-01

Because resources are finite, female animals face trade-offs between the size and number of offspring they are able to produce during a single reproductive event. Optimal egg size (OES) theory predicts that any increase in resources allocated to reproduction should increase clutch size with minimal effects on egg size. Variations of OES predict that egg size should be optimized, although not necessarily constant across a population, because optimality is contingent on maternal phenotypes, such as body size and morphology, and recent environmental conditions. We examined the relationships among body size variables (pelvic aperture width, caudal gap height, and plastron length), clutch size, and egg width of diamondback terrapins from separate but proximate populations at Kiawah Island and Edisto Island, South Carolina. We found that terrapins do not meet some of the predictions of OES theory. Both populations exhibited greater variation in egg size among clutches than within, suggesting an absence of optimization except as it may relate to phenotype/habitat matching. We found that egg size appeared to be constrained by more than just pelvic aperture width in Kiawah terrapins but not in the Edisto population. Terrapins at Edisto appeared to exhibit osteokinesis in the caudal region of their shells, which may aid in the oviposition of large eggs.

Extent of height variability explained by known height-associated genetic variants in an isolated population of the Adriatic coast of Croatia.

PubMed

Zhang, Ge; Karns, Rebekah; Sun, Guangyun; Indugula, Subba Rao; Cheng, Hong; Havas-Augustin, Dubravka; Novokmet, Natalija; Rudan, Dusko; Durakovic, Zijad; Missoni, Sasa; Chakraborty, Ranajit; Rudan, Pavao; Deka, Ranjan

2011-01-01

Human height is a classical example of a polygenic quantitative trait. Recent large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 200 height-associated loci, though these variants explain only 2∼10% of overall variability of normal height. The objective of this study was to investigate the variance explained by these loci in a relatively isolated population of European descent with limited admixture and homogeneous genetic background from the Adriatic coast of Croatia. In a sample of 1304 individuals from the island population of Hvar, Croatia, we performed genome-wide SNP typing and assessed the variance explained by genetic scores constructed from different panels of height-associated SNPs extracted from five published studies. The combined information of the 180 SNPs reported by Lango Allen el al. explained 7.94% of phenotypic variation in our sample. Genetic scores based on 20~50 SNPs reported by the remaining individual GWA studies explained 3~5% of height variance. These percentages of variance explained were within ranges comparable to the original studies and heterogeneity tests did not detect significant differences in effect size estimates between our study and the original reports, if the estimates were obtained from populations of European descent. We have evaluated the portability of height-associated loci and the overall fitting of estimated effect sizes reported in large cohorts to an isolated population. We found proportions of explained height variability were comparable to multiple reference GWAS in cohorts of European descent. These results indicate similar genetic architecture and comparable effect sizes of height loci among populations of European descent. © 2011 Zhang et al.

Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Methods Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts’ exposure to the parasite’s dispersive stages. Results Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (<15 mm). Independently of seagull density, large molecrabs carried significantly more parasites than small molecrabs. The analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. Conclusions These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation—a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions—and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics. PMID:28828270

Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Sara M; Valdivia, Nelson

2017-01-01

Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts' exposure to the parasite's dispersive stages. Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (<15 mm). Independently of seagull density, large molecrabs carried significantly more parasites than small molecrabs. The analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation-a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions-and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics.

Optimum strata boundaries and sample sizes in health surveys using auxiliary variables

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Using convenient stratification criteria such as geographical regions or other natural conditions like age, gender, etc., is not beneficial in order to maximize the precision of the estimates of variables of interest. Thus, one has to look for an efficient stratification design to divide the whole population into homogeneous strata that achieves higher precision in the estimation. In this paper, a procedure for determining Optimum Stratum Boundaries (OSB) and Optimum Sample Sizes (OSS) for each stratum of a variable of interest in health surveys is developed. The determination of OSB and OSS based on the study variable is not feasible in practice since the study variable is not available prior to the survey. Since many variables in health surveys are generally skewed, the proposed technique considers the readily-available auxiliary variables to determine the OSB and OSS. This stratification problem is formulated into a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) that seeks minimization of the variance of the estimated population parameter under Neyman allocation. It is then solved for the OSB by using a dynamic programming (DP) technique. A numerical example with a real data set of a population, aiming to estimate the Haemoglobin content in women in a national Iron Deficiency Anaemia survey, is presented to illustrate the procedure developed in this paper. Upon comparisons with other methods available in literature, results reveal that the proposed approach yields a substantial gain in efficiency over the other methods. A simulation study also reveals similar results. PMID:29621265

Optimum strata boundaries and sample sizes in health surveys using auxiliary variables.

PubMed

Reddy, Karuna Garan; Khan, Mohammad G M; Khan, Sabiha

2018-01-01

Using convenient stratification criteria such as geographical regions or other natural conditions like age, gender, etc., is not beneficial in order to maximize the precision of the estimates of variables of interest. Thus, one has to look for an efficient stratification design to divide the whole population into homogeneous strata that achieves higher precision in the estimation. In this paper, a procedure for determining Optimum Stratum Boundaries (OSB) and Optimum Sample Sizes (OSS) for each stratum of a variable of interest in health surveys is developed. The determination of OSB and OSS based on the study variable is not feasible in practice since the study variable is not available prior to the survey. Since many variables in health surveys are generally skewed, the proposed technique considers the readily-available auxiliary variables to determine the OSB and OSS. This stratification problem is formulated into a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) that seeks minimization of the variance of the estimated population parameter under Neyman allocation. It is then solved for the OSB by using a dynamic programming (DP) technique. A numerical example with a real data set of a population, aiming to estimate the Haemoglobin content in women in a national Iron Deficiency Anaemia survey, is presented to illustrate the procedure developed in this paper. Upon comparisons with other methods available in literature, results reveal that the proposed approach yields a substantial gain in efficiency over the other methods. A simulation study also reveals similar results.

Comparing the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients across distributions and sample sizes: A tutorial using simulations and empirical data.

PubMed

de Winter, Joost C F; Gosling, Samuel D; Potter, Jeff

2016-09-01

The Pearson product–moment correlation coefficient ( r p ) and the Spearman rank correlation coefficient ( r s ) are widely used in psychological research. We compare r p and r s on 3 criteria: variability, bias with respect to the population value, and robustness to an outlier. Using simulations across low (N = 5) to high (N = 1,000) sample sizes we show that, for normally distributed variables, r p and r s have similar expected values but r s is more variable, especially when the correlation is strong. However, when the variables have high kurtosis, r p is more variable than r s . Next, we conducted a sampling study of a psychometric dataset featuring symmetrically distributed data with light tails, and of 2 Likert-type survey datasets, 1 with light-tailed and the other with heavy-tailed distributions. Consistent with the simulations, r p had lower variability than r s in the psychometric dataset. In the survey datasets with heavy-tailed variables in particular, r s had lower variability than r p , and often corresponded more accurately to the population Pearson correlation coefficient ( R p ) than r p did. The simulations and the sampling studies showed that variability in terms of standard deviations can be reduced by about 20% by choosing r s instead of r p . In comparison, increasing the sample size by a factor of 2 results in a 41% reduction of the standard deviations of r s and r p . In conclusion, r p is suitable for light-tailed distributions, whereas r s is preferable when variables feature heavy-tailed distributions or when outliers are present, as is often the case in psychological research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

The Statistics and Mathematics of High Dimension Low Sample Size Asymptotics.

PubMed

Shen, Dan; Shen, Haipeng; Zhu, Hongtu; Marron, J S

2016-10-01

The aim of this paper is to establish several deep theoretical properties of principal component analysis for multiple-component spike covariance models. Our new results reveal an asymptotic conical structure in critical sample eigendirections under the spike models with distinguishable (or indistinguishable) eigenvalues, when the sample size and/or the number of variables (or dimension) tend to infinity. The consistency of the sample eigenvectors relative to their population counterparts is determined by the ratio between the dimension and the product of the sample size with the spike size. When this ratio converges to a nonzero constant, the sample eigenvector converges to a cone, with a certain angle to its corresponding population eigenvector. In the High Dimension, Low Sample Size case, the angle between the sample eigenvector and its population counterpart converges to a limiting distribution. Several generalizations of the multi-spike covariance models are also explored, and additional theoretical results are presented.

Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

PubMed

Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

2008-08-01

We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

Temporal Stability of Genetic Variability and Differentiation in the Three-Spined Stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

PubMed Central

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2015-01-01

Temporal variation in allele frequencies, whether caused by deterministic or stochastic forces, can inform us about interesting demographic and evolutionary phenomena occurring in wild populations. In spite of the continued surge of interest in the genetics of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations, little attention has been paid towards the temporal stability of allele frequency distributions, and whether there are consistent differences in effective size (Ne) of local populations. We investigated temporal stability of genetic variability and differentiation in 15 microsatellite loci within and among eight collection sites of varying habitat type, surveyed twice over a six-year time period. In addition, Nes were estimated with the expectation that they would be lowest in isolated ponds, intermediate in larger lakes and largest in open marine sites. In spite of the marked differences in genetic variability and differentiation among the study sites, the temporal differences in allele frequencies, as well as measures of genetic diversity and differentiation, were negligible. Accordingly, the Ne estimates were temporally stable, but tended to be lower in ponds than in lake or marine habitats. Hence, we conclude that allele frequencies in putatively neutral markers in three-spined sticklebacks seem to be temporally stable – at least over periods of few generations – across a wide range of habitat types differing markedly in levels of genetic variability, effective population size and gene flow. PMID:25853707

Temporal stability of genetic variability and differentiation in the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

PubMed

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2015-01-01

Temporal variation in allele frequencies, whether caused by deterministic or stochastic forces, can inform us about interesting demographic and evolutionary phenomena occurring in wild populations. In spite of the continued surge of interest in the genetics of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations, little attention has been paid towards the temporal stability of allele frequency distributions, and whether there are consistent differences in effective size (Ne) of local populations. We investigated temporal stability of genetic variability and differentiation in 15 microsatellite loci within and among eight collection sites of varying habitat type, surveyed twice over a six-year time period. In addition, Nes were estimated with the expectation that they would be lowest in isolated ponds, intermediate in larger lakes and largest in open marine sites. In spite of the marked differences in genetic variability and differentiation among the study sites, the temporal differences in allele frequencies, as well as measures of genetic diversity and differentiation, were negligible. Accordingly, the Ne estimates were temporally stable, but tended to be lower in ponds than in lake or marine habitats. Hence, we conclude that allele frequencies in putatively neutral markers in three-spined sticklebacks seem to be temporally stable - at least over periods of few generations - across a wide range of habitat types differing markedly in levels of genetic variability, effective population size and gene flow.

Within-site variability in surveys of wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.; Sauer, John R.; Droege, Sam

1994-01-01

Most large-scale surveys of animal populations are based on counts of individuals observed during a sampling period, which are used as indexes to the population. The variability in these indexes not only reflects variability in population sizes among sites but also variability due to the inexactness of the counts. Repeated counts at survey sites can be used to document this additional source of variability and, in some applications, to mitigate its effects. We present models for evaluating the proportion of total variability in counts that is attributable to this within-site variability and apply them in the analysis of data from repeated counts on routes from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We analyzed data on 98 species, obtaining estimates of these percentages, which ranged from 3.5 to 100% with a mean of 36.25%. For at least 14 of the species, more than half of the variation in counts was attributable to within-site sources. Counts for species with lower average counts had a higher percentage of within-site variability. We discuss the relative cost efficiency of replicating sites or initiating new sites for several objectives, concluding that it is frequently better to initiate new sites than to attempt to replicate existing sites.

Exploring the Influence of Select Demographic, Academic, and Athletic Variables on the Retention of Student-Athletes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, James E.; Wessel, Roger D.; Pierce, David A.

2013-01-01

The population of 674 first-year student-athletes culled from 5 successive freshman classes (2004-2008) at a mid-size midwestern university was examined to determine what combination of demographic, academic, and athletic variables best predicted retention into the 2nd academic year. The dependent variable of retention was chosen because it is a…

Dispersal and population state of an endangered island lizard following a conservation translocation.

PubMed

Angeli, Nicole F; Lundgren, Ian F; Pollock, Clayton G; Hillis-Starr, Zandy M; Fitzgerald, Lee A

2018-03-01

Population size is widely used as a unit of ecological analysis, yet to estimate population size requires accounting for observed and latent heterogeneity influencing dispersion of individuals across landscapes. In newly established populations, such as when animals are translocated for conservation, dispersal and availability of resources influence patterns of abundance. We developed a process to estimate population size using N-mixture models and spatial models for newly established and dispersing populations. We used our approach to estimate the population size of critically endangered St. Croix ground lizards (Ameiva polops) five years after translocation of 57 individuals to Buck Island, an offshore island of St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands. Estimates of population size incorporated abiotic variables, dispersal limits, and operative environmental temperature available to the lizards to account for low species detection. Operative environmental temperature and distance from the translocation site were always important in fitting the N-mixture model indicating effects of dispersal and species biology on estimates of population size. We found that the population is increasing its range across the island by 5-10% every six months. We spatially interpolated site-specific abundance from the N-mixture model to the entire island, and we estimated 1,473 (95% CI, 940-1,802) St. Croix ground lizards on Buck Island in 2013 corresponding to survey results. This represents a 26-fold increase since the translocation. We predicted the future dispersal of the lizards to all habitats on Buck Island, with the potential for the population to increase by another five times in the future. Incorporating biologically relevant covariates as explicit parameters in population models can improve predictions of population size and the future spread of species introduced to new localities. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fish population studies using parasites from the Southeastern Pacific Ocean: considering host population changes and species body size as sources of variability of parasite communities.

PubMed

George-Nascimento, Mario; Oliva, Marcelo

2015-01-01

Research using parasites in fish population studies in the South Eastern Pacific (SEP) is summarized. There are 27 such studies (snapshots mainly) in single host species sampled at different geographic localities and at somewhat similar times. They have been devoted mainly to economically important species, though others on coastal and intertidal fish or on less- or non-commercial species provide insights on scales of temporal and spatial variation of parasite infracommunities. Later, we assess whether the probability of harbouring parasites depends on the host species body size. Our results indicate that a stronger tool for fish population studies may be developed under regular (long term) scrutiny of parasite communities, especially of small fish host species, due to their larger variability in richness, abundance and total biomass, than in large fish species. Finally, it might also be necessary to consider the effects of fishing on parasite communities as well as the natural oscillations (coupled or not) of host and parasite populations.

Birth-weight charts and immigrant populations: A critical review.

PubMed

Urquia, Marcelo L; Sørbye, Ingvil K; Wanigaratne, Susitha

2016-04-01

There is an increasing body of literature focusing on differences in newborn size between different population subgroups defined by racial, ethnic, and immigration status. The interpretation of these differences as pathological or as merely reflecting normal variability is not straightforward and may have consequences for the provision of obstetric and neonatal care to minority populations. In this review, we critically assess some methodological issues affecting the assessment of newborn size and their potential implications for minority populations. In particular, we discuss the pros and cons of different types of newborn birth-weight (BW) charts (i.e., single local population-based references, minority-specific references, and a single international standard) to determine abnormal newborn size, with emphasis on immigrant populations. We conclude that size alone is not enough to inform clinical decisions and that all newborn size charts should be used as screening tools, not as diagnostic tools. Parental minority status may be regarded as a marker and used to further inquire about individual risk factors, particularly among immigrants who may not have a complete medical history in the new country. Finally, we outline areas for further research and recommendations for clinical practice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards the Development of a More Accurate Monitoring Procedure for Invertebrate Populations, in the Presence of an Unknown Spatial Pattern of Population Distribution in the Field

PubMed Central

Petrovskaya, Natalia B.; Forbes, Emily; Petrovskii, Sergei V.; Walters, Keith F. A.

2018-01-01

Studies addressing many ecological problems require accurate evaluation of the total population size. In this paper, we revisit a sampling procedure used for the evaluation of the abundance of an invertebrate population from assessment data collected on a spatial grid of sampling locations. We first discuss how insufficient information about the spatial population density obtained on a coarse sampling grid may affect the accuracy of an evaluation of total population size. Such information deficit in field data can arise because of inadequate spatial resolution of the population distribution (spatially variable population density) when coarse grids are used, which is especially true when a strongly heterogeneous spatial population density is sampled. We then argue that the average trap count (the quantity routinely used to quantify abundance), if obtained from a sampling grid that is too coarse, is a random variable because of the uncertainty in sampling spatial data. Finally, we show that a probabilistic approach similar to bootstrapping techniques can be an efficient tool to quantify the uncertainty in the evaluation procedure in the presence of a spatial pattern reflecting a patchy distribution of invertebrates within the sampling grid. PMID:29495513

Qualitative Meta-Analysis on the Hospital Task: Implications for Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noll, Jennifer; Sharma, Sashi

2014-01-01

The "law of large numbers" indicates that as sample size increases, sample statistics become less variable and more closely estimate their corresponding population parameters. Different research studies investigating how people consider sample size when evaluating the reliability of a sample statistic have found a wide range of…

Evaluation of genetic variability in a small, insular population of spruce grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connell, A.F.; Rhymer, Judith; Keppie, D.M.; Svenson, K.L.; Paigan, B.J.

2002-01-01

Using microsatellite markers we determined genetic variability for two populations of spruce grouse in eastern North America, one on a coastal Maine island where breeding habitat is limited and highly fragmented, the other in central New Brunswick (NB), where suitable breeding habitat is generally contiguous across the region. We examined six markers for both populations and all were polymorphic. Although the number of alleles per locus and the proportion of unique alleles were lower in the island population, and probably a result of small sample.size, heterozygosity and a breeding coefficient (Fis) indicated slightly more variability in the island population. Deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium also was more evident in loci for the mainland population. Several traits previously documented in the island population: relatively long natal dispersal distances, reproductive success, territoriality, adult survival, and longevity support the maintenance of hetrerzygosity, at least in the short-term. Sample collection from two small (500 ha), separate areas in NB, and the predicted importance of immigration density to supplement this population demonstrate the need for behavioral and ecological information when interpreting genetic variation. We discuss the relevance of these issues with respect to genetic variability and viability.

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders P.

2017-01-01

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size. PMID:28253345

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

2016-01-01

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Constant and seasonal drivers of bird communities in a wind farm: implications for conservation

PubMed Central

Skórka, Piotr; Szymański, Paweł; Tobolka, Marcin; Luczak, Andrzej; Tryjanowski, Piotr

2016-01-01

Background. One of the most difficult challenges for conservation biology is to reconcile growing human demands for resources with the rising need for protecting nature. Wind farms producing renewable energy have been recognised to be a threat for birds, but clear directives for environmental planning are still missing. Methods. Point counts were performed to study the relationship between eight environmental variables and bird populations in different parts of a year on the largest Polish wind farm between March 2011 and February 2013. Variables potentially related to species richness (Chao 1 estimator) and the abundance of the entire bird community as well as five selected farmland species were analysed with the use of generalized linear mixed models. Results. Some associations between the studied variables and bird populations were season/year specific, while others had a constant direction (positive or negative) across seasons and/or years. The latter were distance to the nearest turbine, field size, number of wind turbines, proximity of settlements and water bodies. Spatial autocorrelation and counting time were significantly correlated with bird population estimates but the directions of these relationships varied among seasons and years. Associations between abundance of individual species and environmental variables were species-specific. Conclusions. The results demonstrated a constant negative relationship between wind turbine proximity and bird numbers. Other environmental variables, such as field size, proximity of settlements and water bodies that also had constant associations with bird populations across seasons may be taken into account when minimizing adverse effects of wind farm development on birds or choosing optimal locations of new turbines. PMID:27547516

Constant and seasonal drivers of bird communities in a wind farm: implications for conservation.

PubMed

Rosin, Zuzanna M; Skórka, Piotr; Szymański, Paweł; Tobolka, Marcin; Luczak, Andrzej; Tryjanowski, Piotr

2016-01-01

Background. One of the most difficult challenges for conservation biology is to reconcile growing human demands for resources with the rising need for protecting nature. Wind farms producing renewable energy have been recognised to be a threat for birds, but clear directives for environmental planning are still missing. Methods. Point counts were performed to study the relationship between eight environmental variables and bird populations in different parts of a year on the largest Polish wind farm between March 2011 and February 2013. Variables potentially related to species richness (Chao 1 estimator) and the abundance of the entire bird community as well as five selected farmland species were analysed with the use of generalized linear mixed models. Results. Some associations between the studied variables and bird populations were season/year specific, while others had a constant direction (positive or negative) across seasons and/or years. The latter were distance to the nearest turbine, field size, number of wind turbines, proximity of settlements and water bodies. Spatial autocorrelation and counting time were significantly correlated with bird population estimates but the directions of these relationships varied among seasons and years. Associations between abundance of individual species and environmental variables were species-specific. Conclusions. The results demonstrated a constant negative relationship between wind turbine proximity and bird numbers. Other environmental variables, such as field size, proximity of settlements and water bodies that also had constant associations with bird populations across seasons may be taken into account when minimizing adverse effects of wind farm development on birds or choosing optimal locations of new turbines.

Genetic variation in insecticide tolerance in a population of southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala): Implications for amphibian conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridges, C.M.; Semlitsch, R.D.

2001-01-01

Currently, conservation efforts are devoted to determining the extent and the causes of the decline of many amphibian species worldwide. Human impacts frequently degrade amphibian habitat and have been implicated in many declines. Because genetic variance is critical in determining the persistence of a species in a changing environment, we examined the amount of genetic variability present in a single population for tolerance to an environmental stressor. We examined the amount of genetic variability among full- and half-sib families in a single population of southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala) with respect to their tolerance to lethal concentrations of the agricultural chemical, carbaryl. Analysis of time-to-death data indicated significant differences among full-sib families and suggests a large amount of variability present in the responses to this environmental stressor. Significant differences in responses among half-sib families indicated that there is additive genetic variance. These data suggest that this population may have the ability to adapt to environmental stressors. It is possible that declines of amphibian populations in the western United States may be attributed to low genetic variability resulting from limited migration among populations and small population sizes.

Establishing a beachhead: A stochastic population model with an Allee effect applied to species invasion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackleh, A.S.; Allen, L.J.S.; Carter, J.

2007-01-01

We formulated a spatially explicit stochastic population model with an Allee effect in order to explore how invasive species may become established. In our model, we varied the degree of migration between local populations and used an Allee effect with variable birth and death rates. Because of the stochastic component, population sizes below the Allee effect threshold may still have a positive probability for successful invasion. The larger the network of populations, the greater the probability of an invasion occurring when initial population sizes are close to or above the Allee threshold. Furthermore, if migration rates are low, one or more than one patch may be successfully invaded, while if migration rates are high all patches are invaded. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geo-Demography of HIV/AIDS in Japan from 1985 to 2011: Incidence and Transmission Mode under Influence of Population Size/Density.

PubMed

Yoshikura, Hiroshi

2016-01-01

A stable relation was found between number of HIV/AIDS patients (P) and population size (N) and between HIV/AIDS incidence (I) and population density (D). The relation could be expressed as P = kN(m) or I = hD(n), where k, h, m, and n are constants. For "AIDS"/"AIDS diagnosis", the constant m was 1.5 for Japan and 1.3 for the United States of America (USA); n was 0.38 for both Japan and the USA. These observations indicated that larger population sizes related to disproportionately larger numbers of HIV/AIDS patients, and denser populations had disproportionately higher incidences of HIV/AIDS. Considering the wide geo-demographic difference between the two countries, it was striking that the same equations with constants within a narrow range were applicable to both Japan and the USA. Modes of HIV transmission appeared to be variable among prefectures in Japan. Homosexual transmission was suggested as being more predominant in more populated prefectures.

Resolving the Conflict Between Associative Overdominance and Background Selection

PubMed Central

Zhao, Lei; Charlesworth, Brian

2016-01-01

In small populations, genetic linkage between a polymorphic neutral locus and loci subject to selection, either against partially recessive mutations or in favor of heterozygotes, may result in an apparent selective advantage to heterozygotes at the neutral locus (associative overdominance) and a retardation of the rate of loss of variability by genetic drift at this locus. In large populations, selection against deleterious mutations has previously been shown to reduce variability at linked neutral loci (background selection). We describe analytical, numerical, and simulation studies that shed light on the conditions under which retardation vs. acceleration of loss of variability occurs at a neutral locus linked to a locus under selection. We consider a finite, randomly mating population initiated from an infinite population in equilibrium at a locus under selection. With mutation and selection, retardation occurs only when S, the product of twice the effective population size and the selection coefficient, is of order 1. With S >> 1, background selection always causes an acceleration of loss of variability. Apparent heterozygote advantage at the neutral locus is, however, always observed when mutations are partially recessive, even if there is an accelerated rate of loss of variability. With heterozygote advantage at the selected locus, loss of variability is nearly always retarded. The results shed light on experiments on the loss of variability at marker loci in laboratory populations and on the results of computer simulations of the effects of multiple selected loci on neutral variability. PMID:27182952

Body shape by 3-D photonic scanning in Thai and UK adults: comparison of national sizing surveys.

PubMed

Wells, J C K; Treleaven, P; Charoensiriwath, S

2012-01-01

Body mass index (BMI) cut-offs associated with increased risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease differ between European and Asian populations, and among Asian populations. Within-population and ethnic variability in body shape has likewise been linked with variability in cardiovascular risk in western settings. To explore differences between Thai and White UK adults in body shape and its associations with height, age and BMI. Data on weight and body shape by 3-D photonic scanning from National Sizing Surveys of UK (3542 men, 4130 women) and Thai (5889 men, 6499 women) adults aged 16-90 years, using a common protocol and methodology, were analysed. Thai adults in both sexes had significantly smaller body girths than UK adults after adjusting for age and height. Matching for BMI, and adjusting for height and age, Thais in both sexes tended to have similar or greater limb girths, but significantly smaller torso girths (especially waist and hip) than UK individuals. These results were replicated within narrow BMI bands at ∼20 and ∼25 kg m(-2). Shape-age associations also differed between the populations. Young Thai adults have a significantly slighter physique than White UK adults, with a less central distribution of body weight. However these differences reduce with age, especially in males. The 3-D photonic scanning provides detailed digital anthropometric data capable of monitoring between- and within-individual shape variability. The technology merits further application to investigate whether variability in body shape is more sensitive to metabolic risk than BMI within and between-populations.

Genetic basis for body size variation between an anadromous and two derived lacustrine populations of threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus in southwest Alaska

PubMed Central

Bowles, Ella; Johnston, Rebecca A.; Vanderzwan, Stevi L.; Rogers, Sean M.

2016-01-01

Abstract Body size is a highly variable trait among geographically separated populations. Size-assortative reproductive isolation has been linked to recent adaptive radiations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) into freshwater, but the genetic basis of the commonly found size difference between anadromous and derived lacustrine sticklebacks has not been tested. We studied the genetic basis of size differences between recently diverging stickleback lineages in southwest Alaska using a common environment experiment. We crossed stickleback within one anadromous (Naknek River) and one lake (Pringle Lake) population and between the anadromous and two lake populations (Pringle and JoJo Lakes), and raised them in a salinity of 4–6 ppt. The F1 anadromous and freshwater forms differed significantly in size, whereas hybrids were intermediate or exhibited dominance toward the anadromous form. Additionally, the size of freshwater F1s differed from their wild counterparts, with within-population F1s from Pringle Lake growing larger than their wild counterparts, while there was no size difference between lab-raised and wild anadromous fish. Sexual dimorphism was always present in anadromous fish, but not in freshwater, and not always in the hybrid crosses. These results, along with parallel changes among anadromous and freshwater forms in other regions, suggest that this heritable trait is both plastic and may be under divergent and/or sexual selection. PMID:29491893

Genetic basis for body size variation between an anadromous and two derived lacustrine populations of threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus in southwest Alaska.

PubMed

Bowles, Ella; Johnston, Rebecca A; Vanderzwan, Stevi L; Rogers, Sean M

2016-02-01

Body size is a highly variable trait among geographically separated populations. Size-assortative reproductive isolation has been linked to recent adaptive radiations of threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus ) into freshwater, but the genetic basis of the commonly found size difference between anadromous and derived lacustrine sticklebacks has not been tested. We studied the genetic basis of size differences between recently diverging stickleback lineages in southwest Alaska using a common environment experiment. We crossed stickleback within one anadromous (Naknek River) and one lake (Pringle Lake) population and between the anadromous and two lake populations (Pringle and JoJo Lakes), and raised them in a salinity of 4-6 ppt. The F1 anadromous and freshwater forms differed significantly in size, whereas hybrids were intermediate or exhibited dominance toward the anadromous form. Additionally, the size of freshwater F1s differed from their wild counterparts, with within-population F1s from Pringle Lake growing larger than their wild counterparts, while there was no size difference between lab-raised and wild anadromous fish. Sexual dimorphism was always present in anadromous fish, but not in freshwater, and not always in the hybrid crosses. These results, along with parallel changes among anadromous and freshwater forms in other regions, suggest that this heritable trait is both plastic and may be under divergent and/or sexual selection.

Assessment of sampling stability in ecological applications of discriminant analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.; Titus, K.

1988-01-01

A simulation study was undertaken to assess the sampling stability of the variable loadings in linear discriminant function analysis. A factorial design was used for the factors of multivariate dimensionality, dispersion structure, configuration of group means, and sample size. A total of 32,400 discriminant analyses were conducted, based on data from simulated populations with appropriate underlying statistical distributions. A review of 60 published studies and 142 individual analyses indicated that sample sizes in ecological studies often have met that requirement. However, individual group sample sizes frequently were very unequal, and checks of assumptions usually were not reported. The authors recommend that ecologists obtain group sample sizes that are at least three times as large as the number of variables measured.

Evaluation of Delisting Criteria and Rebuilding Schedules for Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook, Fall Chinook and Sockeye Salmon : Recovery Issues for Threatened and Endangered Snake River Salmon : Technical Report 10 of 11.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cramer, Steven P.; Neeley, Doug

1993-06-01

We develop a framework for distinguishing healthy and threatened populations, and we analyze specific criteria by which these terms can be measured for threatened populations of salmon in the Snake River. We review reports and analyze existing data on listed populations of salmon in the Snake River to establish a framework for two stages of the recovery process: (1) defining de-listing criteria, and (2) estimating the percentage increase in survival that will be necessary for recovery of the population within specified time frames, given the de-listing criteria that must be achieved. We develop and apply a simplified population model tomore » estimate the percentage improvement in survival that will be necessary to achieve different rates of recovery. We considered five main concepts identifying de-listing criteria: (1) minimum population size, (2) rates of population change, (3) number of population subunits, (4) survival rates, and (5) driving variables. In considering minimum population size, we conclude that high variation in survival rates poses a substantially greater probability of causing extinction than does loss of genetic variation. Distinct population subunits exist and affect both the genetic variability of the population and the dynamics of population decline and growth. We distinguish between two types of population subunits, (1) genetic and (2) geographic, and we give examples of their effects on population recovery.« less

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

PubMed Central

DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

Size of age-0 crappies (Pomoxis spp.) relative to reservoir habitats and water levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaczka, Levi J.; Miranda, Leandro E.

2014-01-01

Variable year-class strength is common in crappie Pomoxis spp. populations in many reservoirs, yet the mechanisms behind this variability are poorly understood. Size-dependent mortality of age-0 fishes has long been recognized in the population ecology literature; however, investigations about the effects of environmental factors on age-0 crappie size are lacking. The objective of this study was to determine if differences existed in total length of age-0 crappies between embayment and floodplain habitats in reservoirs, while accounting for potential confounding effects of water level and crappie species. To this end, we examined size of age-0 crappies in four flood-control reservoirs in northwest Mississippi over 4years. Age-0 crappies inhabiting uplake floodplain habitats grew to a larger size than fish in downlake embayments, but this trend depended on species, length of time a reservoir was dewatered in the months preceding spawning, and reservoir water level in the months following spawning. The results from our study indicate that water-level management may focus not only on allowing access to quality nursery habitat, but that alternating water levels on a multiyear schedule could increase the quality of degraded littoral habitats.

Size relationships between the parasitic copepod, Lernanthropus cynoscicola , and its fish host, Cynoscion guatucupa.

PubMed

Timi, J T; Lanfranchi, A L

2006-02-01

The effects of the size of Cynoscion guatucupa on the size and demographic parameters of their parasitic copepod Lernanthropus cynoscicola were evaluated. Prevalence of copepods increased with host size up to fish of intermediate length, then it decreased, probably because changes in size of gill filaments affect their attachment capability, enhancing the possibility of being detached by respiratory currents. Body length of copepods was significantly correlated with host length, indicating that only parasites of an 'adequate' size can be securely attached to a fish of a given size. The absence of relationship between the coefficient of variability in copepod length and both host length and number of conspecifics, together with the host-size dependence of both male and juvenile female sizes, prevent to interpret this relationship as a phenomenon of developmental plasticity. Therefore, the observed peak of prevalence could reflect the distribution of size frequencies in the population of copepods, with more individuals near the average length. Concluding, the 'optimum' host size for L. cynoscicola could merely be the adequate size for most individuals in the population, depending, therefore, on a populational attribute of parasites. However, its location along the host size range could be determined by a balance between fecundity and number of available hosts, which increases and decreases, respectively, with both host and parasite size.

Dynamics of a black-capped chickadee population, 1958-1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loery, G.; Nichols, J.D.

1985-01-01

The dynamics of a wintering population of Black-capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus) were studied from 1958-1983 using capture-recapture methods. The Jolly-Seber model was used to obtain annual estimates of population size, survival rate, and recruitment. The average estimated population size over this period was ?160 birds. The average estimated number of new birds entering the population each year and alive at the time of sampling was ?57. The arithmetic mean annual survival rate estimate was ?0.59. We tested hypothesis about possible relationships between these population parameters and (1) the natural introduction of Tufted Titmice (Parus bicolor) to the area, (2) the clear-cutting of portions of nearby red pine (Pinus resinosa) plantations, and (3) natural variations in winter temperatures. The chickadee population exhibited a substantial short-term decline following titmouse establishment, produced by decreases in both survival rate and number of new recruits. Survival rate decline somewhat after the initiation of the pine clear-cutting, but population size was very similar before and after clear-cutting. Weighted least squares analyses provided no evidence of a relationship between survival rate and either of two winter temperature variables.

Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses

PubMed Central

Röther, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.

2014-01-01

In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223

A study of the Huntington's disease associated trinucleotide repeat in the Scottish population.

PubMed Central

Barron, L H; Warner, J P; Porteous, M; Holloway, S; Simpson, S; Davidson, R; Brock, D J

1993-01-01

Accurate measurements of a specific CAG repeat sequence in the Huntington's disease (HD) gene in 337 HD patients and 229 normal controls from the Scottish population showed a range from 35 to 62 repeats in affected subjects and eight to 33 in normal subjects. A link between early onset of symptoms and very high repeat number was seen. For HD patients with the most common affected allele sizes (39 to 42 repeats) absolute repeat size was a poor index for the age at onset of symptoms. There was variability in the transmitted repeat size for both sexes in the HD size range. We observed a significant increase of repeat size for paternal transmission of the disease and greater instability for paternally transmitted CAG repeats in the HD size range. Images PMID:8133495

Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): a comparison between central and range edge populations.

PubMed

Araújo, Rita M; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

2014-01-01

Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and shows the importance of vegetative compared to reproductive stages for the long-term persistence of populations.

Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

PubMed

Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

2013-08-01

A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline, but that it can also contribute to its regulation.

The temperature size rule in arthropods: independent of macro-environmental variables but size dependent.

PubMed

Klok, C Jaco; Harrison, Jon F

2013-10-01

Temperature is a key factor that affects the rates of growth and development in animals, which ultimately determine body size. Although not universal, a widely documented and poorly understood pattern is the inverse relationship between the temperature at which an ectothermic animal is reared and its body size (temperature size rule [TSR]). The proximate and ultimate mechanisms for the TSR remain unclear. To explore possible explanations for the TSR, we tested for correlations between the magnitude/direction of the TSR and latitude, temperature, elevation, habitat, availability of oxygen, capacity for flight, and taxonomic grouping in 98 species/populations of arthropods. The magnitude and direction of the TSR was not correlated with any of the macro-environmental variables we examined, supporting the generality of the TSR. However, body size affected the magnitude and direction of the TSR, with smaller arthropods more likely to demonstrate a classic TSR. Considerable variation among species exists in the TSR, suggesting either strong interactions with nutrition, or selection based on microclimatic or seasonal variation not captured in classic macro-environmental variables.

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

Sensitive response of a model of symbiotic ecosystem to seasonal periodic drive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rekker, A.; Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

2014-11-01

A symbiotic ecosysytem (metapopulation) is studied by means of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model with generalized Verhulst self-regulation. The effect of variable environment on the carrying capacities of populations is taken into account as an asymmetric dichotomous noise and as a deterministic periodic stimulus. In the framework of the mean-field theory an explicit self-consistency equation for the system in the long-time limit is presented. Also, expressions for the probability distribution and for the moments of the population size are found. In certain cases the mean population size exhibits large oscillations in time, even if the amplitude of the seasonal environmental drive is small. Particularly, it is shown that the occurrence of large oscillations of the mean population size can be controlled by noise parameters (such as amplitude and correlation time) and by the coupling strength of the symbiotic interaction between species.

Trichotomous noise controlled signal amplification in a generalized Verhulst model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Romi; Soika, Erkki; Lumi, Neeme

2014-10-01

The long-time limit of the probability distribution and statistical moments for a population size are studied by means of a stochastic growth model with generalized Verhulst self-regulation. The effect of variable environment on the carrying capacity of a population is modeled by a multiplicative three-level Markovian noise and by a time periodic deterministic component. Exact expressions for the moments of the population size have been calculated. It is shown that an interplay of a small periodic forcing and colored noise can cause large oscillations of the mean population size. The conditions for the appearance of such a phenomenon are found and illustrated by graphs. Implications of the results on models of symbiotic metapopulations are also discussed. Particularly, it is demonstrated that the effect of noise-generated amplification of an input signal gets more pronounced as the intensity of symbiotic interaction increases.

Genic Variability and Strategies of Adaptation in Animals

PubMed Central

Selander, Robert K.; Kaufman, Donald W.

1973-01-01

Levels of genic heterozygosity, as measured by surveys of allozymic variation, are much lower in populations of large, mobile animals (most vertebrates) than in those of small, relatively immobile animals (most invertebrates). This difference is not consistent with theories relating variability to population size (species number) or dispersal ability (gene flow), but it is predicted by Levins' theory of adaptive strategies in relation to environmental uncertainty (“grain”). Mobility and degree of homeostatic control apparently are important factors influencing levels of genic heterozygosity in natural populations. The results argue indirectly that at least a major proportion of allozymic variation is maintained by natural selection. PMID:4515944

Proteome-wide association studies identify biochemical modules associated with a wing-size phenotype in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Okada, Hirokazu; Ebhardt, H Alexander; Vonesch, Sibylle Chantal; Aebersold, Ruedi; Hafen, Ernst

2016-09-01

The manner by which genetic diversity within a population generates individual phenotypes is a fundamental question of biology. To advance the understanding of the genotype-phenotype relationships towards the level of biochemical processes, we perform a proteome-wide association study (PWAS) of a complex quantitative phenotype. We quantify the variation of wing imaginal disc proteomes in Drosophila genetic reference panel (DGRP) lines using SWATH mass spectrometry. In spite of the very large genetic variation (1/36 bp) between the lines, proteome variability is surprisingly small, indicating strong molecular resilience of protein expression patterns. Proteins associated with adult wing size form tight co-variation clusters that are enriched in fundamental biochemical processes. Wing size correlates with some basic metabolic functions, positively with glucose metabolism but negatively with mitochondrial respiration and not with ribosome biogenesis. Our study highlights the power of PWAS to filter functional variants from the large genetic variability in natural populations.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuparinen, Anna; Boit, Alice; Valdovinos, Fernanda S.; Lassaux, Hélène; Martinez, Neo D.

2016-02-01

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes’ food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes’ resilience to fishing and ecosystems’ resistance to environmental variations.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Boit, Alice; Valdovinos, Fernanda S; Lassaux, Hélène; Martinez, Neo D

2016-02-26

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes' food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes' resilience to fishing and ecosystems' resistance to environmental variations.

Dentition of moustached tamarins (Saguinus mystax mystax) from Padre Isla, Peru, part 1: quantitative variation.

PubMed

Tornow, Matthew A; Ford, Susan M; Garber, Paul A; de Sa Sauerbrunn, Edward

2006-07-01

Analyses of dental variation in geographically restricted, wild populations of primates are extremely rare; however, such data form the best source for models of likely degrees of variation within and between fossil species. Data from dental casts of a geographically restricted population of moustached tamarins (Saguinus mystax mystax) from Padre Isla, Peru, document high levels of dental variability, as measured by coefficients of variation, in a nonsexually dimorphic species, despite its isolation and small population size. Like other primates, moustached tamarins show lower variability in the dimensions of the first molars and increased variability in the dimensions of the final molars in the toothrow. Moustached tamarins from Padre Isla have a distinctive pattern of variability in the remaining teeth, including more stable tooth lengths in the anterior and posterior portions of the toothrow, and more stable tooth widths in the midregion of the toothrow. High variability in incisor width may be due to age effects of a distinctive diet and pattern of dental wear.

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

PubMed

Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

2008-08-28

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Influences of population size and density on birthplace effects.

PubMed

Hancock, David J; Coutinho, Patrícia; Côté, Jean; Mesquita, Isabel

2018-01-01

Contextual influences on talent development (e.g., birthplace effects) have become a topic of interest for sport scientists. Birthplace effects occur when being born in a certain city size leads to participation or performance advantages, typically for those born in smaller or mid-sized cities. The purpose of this study was to investigate birthplace effects in Portuguese volleyball players by analysing city size, as well as population density - an important but infrequently used variable. Participants included 4062 volleyball players (M age  = 33), 53.2% of whom were men. Using Portuguese national census data from 1981, we compared participants (within each sex) across five population categories. In addition, we used ANOVAs to study expertise and population density. Results indicated that men and women athletes born in districts of 200,000-399,999 were 2.4 times more likely to attain elite volleyball status, while all other districts decreased the odds of expert development. For men, being born in high-density areas resulted in less chance of achieving expertise, whereas there were no differences for women. The results suggest that athletes' infrastructure and social structure play an important role in talent development, and that these structures are influenced by total population and population density, respectively.

Population Demographic History Can Cause the Appearance of Recombination Hotspots

PubMed Central

Johnston, Henry R.; Cutler, David J.

2012-01-01

Although the prevailing view among geneticists suggests that recombination hotspots exist ubiquitously across the human genome, there is only limited experimental evidence from a few genomic regions to support the generality of this claim. A small number of true recombination hotspots are well supported experimentally, but the vast majority of hotspots have been identified on the basis of population genetic inferences from the patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) seen in the human population. These inferences are made assuming a particular model of human history, and one of the assumptions of that model is that the effective population size of humans has remained constant throughout our history. Our results show that relaxation of the constant population size assumption can create LD and variation patterns that are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to human populations without any need to invoke localized hotspots of recombination. In other words, apparent recombination hotspots could be an artifact of variable population size over time. Several lines of evidence suggest that the vast majority of hotspots identified on the basis of LD information are unlikely to have elevated recombination rates. PMID:22560089

Reliability of Different Mark-Recapture Methods for Population Size Estimation Tested against Reference Population Sizes Constructed from Field Data

PubMed Central

Grimm, Annegret; Gruber, Bernd; Henle, Klaus

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK). If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2). Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to evaluate the performance of mark-recapture population size estimators under field conditions, which is essential for selecting an appropriate method and obtaining reliable results in ecology and conservation biology, and thus for sound management. PMID:24896260

Functional traits help predict post-disturbance demography of tropical trees.

PubMed

Flores, Olivier; Hérault, Bruno; Delcamp, Matthieu; Garnier, Éric; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie

2014-01-01

How tropical tree species respond to disturbance is a central issue of forest ecology, conservation and resource management. We define a hierarchical model to investigate how functional traits measured in control plots relate to the population change rate and to demographic rates for recruitment and mortality after disturbance by logging operations. Population change and demographic rates were quantified on a 12-year period after disturbance and related to seven functional traits measured in control plots. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian Network approach on 53 species surveyed in permanent forest plots (37.5 ha) at Paracou in French Guiana. The network analysis allowed us to highlight both direct and indirect relationships among predictive variables. Overall, 89% of interspecific variability in the population change rate after disturbance were explained by the two demographic rates, the recruitment rate being the most explicative variable. Three direct drivers explained 45% of the variability in recruitment rates, including leaf phosphorus concentration, with a positive effect, and seed size and wood density with negative effects. Mortality rates were explained by interspecific variability in maximum diameter only (25%). Wood density, leaf nitrogen concentration, maximum diameter and seed size were not explained by variables in the analysis and thus appear as independent drivers of post-disturbance demography. Relationships between functional traits and demographic parameters were consistent with results found in undisturbed forests. Functional traits measured in control conditions can thus help predict the fate of tropical tree species after disturbance. Indirect relationships also suggest how different processes interact to mediate species demographic response.

Coccidian infection may explain the differences in the life history of octopus host populations.

PubMed

Storero, Lorena P; Narvarte, Maite A

2013-11-01

The prevalence of coccidian parasites in three Octopus tehuelchus populations from San Matías Gulf (Patagonia, Argentina) is compared. The prevalence was similar between sexes, but varied between seasons (being highest during cold months) and sites. Islote Lobos had the highest prevalence (42.7-100%) followed by San Antonio Bay (0-66%) and El Fuerte (0-24.5%). Octopuses under 27 mm of dorsal mantle length showed a low prevalence (less than 50%), which increased with size. We hypothesize that the high prevalence of parasites, which affect the three populations differentially, could account for the observed variability in life-span and growth, size-frequency distributions, reproduction and densities of O. tehuelchus populations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variability of Lekanesphaera monodi metabolic rates with habitat trophic status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vignes, Fabio; Fedele, Marialaura; Pinna, Maurizio; Mancinelli, Giorgio; Basset, Alberto

2012-05-01

Regulation of metabolism is a common strategy used by individuals to respond to a changing environment. The mechanisms underlying the variability of metabolic rates in macroinvertebrates are of primary importance in studying benthic-pelagic energy transfer in transitional water ecosystems. Lekanesphaera monodi is an isopod endemic to transitional water ecosystems that can modify its metabolic rate in response to environmental changes. Therefore it is a useful model in studying the influence of environmental factors on metabolism. This study focused on the interpopulation variability of standard metabolic rates (SMR) in L. monodi populations sampled in three transitional water ecosystems differing in their trophic status. The standard metabolic rates of L. monodi individuals across the same range of body size spectra were inferred from oxygen consumption measurements in a flow-through respirometer in the three populations and a body condition index was assessed for each population. Habitat trophic status was evaluated by monthly measurement of the basic physical-chemical parameters of the water column in the ecosystems for one year. Standard metabolic rates showed high variability, ranging from 0.27 to 10.14 J d-1. Body size accounted for more than 38% of total variability. In terms of trophic status, individuals from the eutrophic ecosystem had significantly higher standard metabolic rates than individuals from the other ecosystems (SMR = 2.3 J d-1 in Spunderati Sud vs. 1.36 J d-1 in Alimini and 0.69 J d-1 in Acquatina). The body conditions index was also higher in the population from the eutrophic ecosystem. Results show that standard metabolic rates and growth rates are directly related to habitat productivity in accordance with the expectations of the food habits hypothesis. A possible extension of this hypothesis to benthic invertebrates is proposed.

Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

2016-10-01

Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

Efficient computation of the joint sample frequency spectra for multiple populations.

PubMed

Kamm, John A; Terhorst, Jonathan; Song, Yun S

2017-01-01

A wide range of studies in population genetics have employed the sample frequency spectrum (SFS), a summary statistic which describes the distribution of mutant alleles at a polymorphic site in a sample of DNA sequences and provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic variation data. Recently, there has been much interest in analyzing the joint SFS data from multiple populations to infer parameters of complex demographic histories, including variable population sizes, population split times, migration rates, admixture proportions, and so on. SFS-based inference methods require accurate computation of the expected SFS under a given demographic model. Although much methodological progress has been made, existing methods suffer from numerical instability and high computational complexity when multiple populations are involved and the sample size is large. In this paper, we present new analytic formulas and algorithms that enable accurate, efficient computation of the expected joint SFS for thousands of individuals sampled from hundreds of populations related by a complex demographic model with arbitrary population size histories (including piecewise-exponential growth). Our results are implemented in a new software package called momi (MOran Models for Inference). Through an empirical study we demonstrate our improvements to numerical stability and computational complexity.

Efficient computation of the joint sample frequency spectra for multiple populations

PubMed Central

Kamm, John A.; Terhorst, Jonathan; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

A wide range of studies in population genetics have employed the sample frequency spectrum (SFS), a summary statistic which describes the distribution of mutant alleles at a polymorphic site in a sample of DNA sequences and provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic variation data. Recently, there has been much interest in analyzing the joint SFS data from multiple populations to infer parameters of complex demographic histories, including variable population sizes, population split times, migration rates, admixture proportions, and so on. SFS-based inference methods require accurate computation of the expected SFS under a given demographic model. Although much methodological progress has been made, existing methods suffer from numerical instability and high computational complexity when multiple populations are involved and the sample size is large. In this paper, we present new analytic formulas and algorithms that enable accurate, efficient computation of the expected joint SFS for thousands of individuals sampled from hundreds of populations related by a complex demographic model with arbitrary population size histories (including piecewise-exponential growth). Our results are implemented in a new software package called momi (MOran Models for Inference). Through an empirical study we demonstrate our improvements to numerical stability and computational complexity. PMID:28239248

Integrating Breeding Bird Survey and demographic data to estimate Wood Duck population size in the Atlantic Flyway

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John; Boomer, G. Scott; Devers, Patrick K.; Garrettson, Pamela R.

2017-01-01

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to assist in monitoring and management of some migratory birds. However, BBS analyses provide indices of population change rather than estimates of population size, precluding their use in developing abundance-based objectives and limiting applicability to harvest management. Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) are important harvested birds in the Atlantic Flyway (AF) that are difficult to detect during aerial surveys because they prefer forested habitat. We integrated Wood Duck count data from a ground-plot survey in the northeastern U.S. with AF-wide BBS, banding, parts collection, and harvest data to derive estimates of population size for the AF. Overlapping results between the smaller-scale intensive ground-plot survey and the BBS in the northeastern U.S. provided a means for scaling BBS indices to the breeding population size estimates. We applied these scaling factors to BBS results for portions of the AF lacking intensive surveys. Banding data provided estimates of annual survival and harvest rates; the latter, when combined with parts-collection data, provided estimates of recruitment. We used the harvest data to estimate fall population size. Our estimates of breeding population size and variability from the integrated population model (N̄ = 0.99 million, SD = 0.04) were similar to estimates of breeding population size based solely on data from the AF ground-plot surveys and the BBS (N̄ = 1.01 million, SD = 0.04) from 1998 to 2015. Integrating BBS data with other data provided reliable population size estimates for Wood Ducks at a scale useful for harvest and habitat management in the AF, and allowed us to derive estimates of important demographic parameters (e.g., seasonal survival rates, sex ratio) that were not directly informed by data.

In Vivo Single-Cell Fluorescence and Size Scaling of Phytoplankton Chlorophyll Content.

PubMed

Álvarez, Eva; Nogueira, Enrique; López-Urrutia, Ángel

2017-04-01

In unicellular phytoplankton, the size scaling exponent of chlorophyll content per cell decreases with increasing light limitation. Empirical studies have explored this allometry by combining data from several species, using average values of pigment content and cell size for each species. The resulting allometry thus includes phylogenetic and size scaling effects. The possibility of measuring single-cell fluorescence with imaging-in-flow cytometry devices allows the study of the size scaling of chlorophyll content at both the inter- and intraspecific levels. In this work, the changing allometry of chlorophyll content was estimated for the first time for single phytoplankton populations by using data from a series of incubations with monocultures exposed to different light levels. Interspecifically, our experiments confirm previous modeling and experimental results of increasing size scaling exponents with increasing irradiance. A similar pattern was observed intraspecifically but with a larger variability in size scaling exponents. Our results show that size-based processes and geometrical approaches explain variations in chlorophyll content. We also show that the single-cell fluorescence measurements provided by imaging-in-flow devices can be applied to field samples to understand the changes in the size dependence of chlorophyll content in response to environmental variables affecting primary production. IMPORTANCE The chlorophyll concentrations in phytoplankton register physiological adjustments in cellular pigmentation arising mainly from changes in light conditions. The extent of these adjustments is constrained by the size of the phytoplankton cells, even within single populations. Hence, variations in community chlorophyll derived from photoacclimation are also dependent on the phytoplankton size distribution. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

In Vivo Single-Cell Fluorescence and Size Scaling of Phytoplankton Chlorophyll Content

PubMed Central

Nogueira, Enrique; López-Urrutia, Ángel

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT In unicellular phytoplankton, the size scaling exponent of chlorophyll content per cell decreases with increasing light limitation. Empirical studies have explored this allometry by combining data from several species, using average values of pigment content and cell size for each species. The resulting allometry thus includes phylogenetic and size scaling effects. The possibility of measuring single-cell fluorescence with imaging-in-flow cytometry devices allows the study of the size scaling of chlorophyll content at both the inter- and intraspecific levels. In this work, the changing allometry of chlorophyll content was estimated for the first time for single phytoplankton populations by using data from a series of incubations with monocultures exposed to different light levels. Interspecifically, our experiments confirm previous modeling and experimental results of increasing size scaling exponents with increasing irradiance. A similar pattern was observed intraspecifically but with a larger variability in size scaling exponents. Our results show that size-based processes and geometrical approaches explain variations in chlorophyll content. We also show that the single-cell fluorescence measurements provided by imaging-in-flow devices can be applied to field samples to understand the changes in the size dependence of chlorophyll content in response to environmental variables affecting primary production. IMPORTANCE The chlorophyll concentrations in phytoplankton register physiological adjustments in cellular pigmentation arising mainly from changes in light conditions. The extent of these adjustments is constrained by the size of the phytoplankton cells, even within single populations. Hence, variations in community chlorophyll derived from photoacclimation are also dependent on the phytoplankton size distribution. PMID:28115378

An evaluation of the efficiency of minnow traps for estimating the abundance of minnows in desert spring systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, James T.; Scheerer, Paul D.; Clements, Shaun

2015-01-01

Desert springs are sensitive aquatic ecosystems that pose unique challenges to natural resource managers and researchers. Among the most important of these is the need to accurately quantify population parameters for resident fish, particularly when the species are of special conservation concern. We evaluated the efficiency of baited minnow traps for estimating the abundance of two at-risk species, Foskett Speckled Dace Rhinichthys osculus ssp. and Borax Lake Chub Gila boraxobius, in desert spring systems in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated alternative sample designs using simulation and found that capture–recapture designs with four capture occasions would maximize the accuracy of estimates and minimize fish handling. We implemented the design and estimated capture and recapture probabilities using the Huggins closed-capture estimator. Trap capture probabilities averaged 23% and 26% for Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub, respectively, but differed substantially among sample locations, through time, and nonlinearly with fish body size. Recapture probabilities for Foskett Speckled Dace were, on average, 1.6 times greater than (first) capture probabilities, suggesting “trap-happy” behavior. Comparison of population estimates from the Huggins model with the commonly used Lincoln–Petersen estimator indicated that the latter underestimated Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub population size by 48% and by 20%, respectively. These biases were due to variability in capture and recapture probabilities. Simulation of fish monitoring that included the range of capture and recapture probabilities observed indicated that variability in capture and recapture probabilities in time negatively affected the ability to detect annual decreases by up to 20% in fish population size. Failure to account for variability in capture and recapture probabilities can lead to poor quality data and study inferences. Therefore, we recommend that fishery researchers and managers employ sample designs and estimators that can account for this variability.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

PubMed

Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T N C

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

PubMed Central

Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species. PMID:28306735

Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia's spinifex grasslands.

PubMed

Bliege Bird, Rebecca; Codding, Brian F; Kauhanen, Peter G; Bird, Douglas W

2012-06-26

Across diverse ecosystems, greater climatic variability tends to increase wildfire size, particularly in Australia, where alternating wet-dry cycles increase vegetation growth, only to leave a dry overgrown landscape highly susceptible to fire spread. Aboriginal Australian hunting fires have been hypothesized to buffer such variability, mitigating mortality on small-mammal populations, which have suffered declines and extinctions in the arid zone coincident with Aboriginal depopulation. We test the hypothesis that the relationship between climate and fire size is buffered through the maintenance of an anthropogenic, fine-grained fire regime by comparing the effect of climatic variability on landscapes dominated by Martu Aboriginal hunting fires with those dominated by lightning fires. We show that Aboriginal fires are smaller, more tightly clustered, and remain small even when climate variation causes huge fires in the lightning region. As these effects likely benefit threatened small-mammal species, Aboriginal hunters should be considered trophic facilitators, and policies aimed at reducing the risk of large fires should promote land-management strategies consistent with Aboriginal burning regimes.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Transmission Bottleneck Size Estimation from Pathogen Deep-Sequencing Data, with an Application to Human Influenza A Virus.

PubMed

Sobel Leonard, Ashley; Weissman, Daniel B; Greenbaum, Benjamin; Ghedin, Elodie; Koelle, Katia

2017-07-15

The bottleneck governing infectious disease transmission describes the size of the pathogen population transferred from the donor to the recipient host. Accurate quantification of the bottleneck size is particularly important for rapidly evolving pathogens such as influenza virus, as narrow bottlenecks reduce the amount of transferred viral genetic diversity and, thus, may decrease the rate of viral adaptation. Previous studies have estimated bottleneck sizes governing viral transmission by using statistical analyses of variants identified in pathogen sequencing data. These analyses, however, did not account for variant calling thresholds and stochastic viral replication dynamics within recipient hosts. Because these factors can skew bottleneck size estimates, we introduce a new method for inferring bottleneck sizes that accounts for these factors. Through the use of a simulated data set, we first show that our method, based on beta-binomial sampling, accurately recovers transmission bottleneck sizes, whereas other methods fail to do so. We then apply our method to a data set of influenza A virus (IAV) infections for which viral deep-sequencing data from transmission pairs are available. We find that the IAV transmission bottleneck size estimates in this study are highly variable across transmission pairs, while the mean bottleneck size of 196 virions is consistent with a previous estimate for this data set. Furthermore, regression analysis shows a positive association between estimated bottleneck size and donor infection severity, as measured by temperature. These results support findings from experimental transmission studies showing that bottleneck sizes across transmission events can be variable and influenced in part by epidemiological factors. IMPORTANCE The transmission bottleneck size describes the size of the pathogen population transferred from the donor to the recipient host and may affect the rate of pathogen adaptation within host populations. Recent advances in sequencing technology have enabled bottleneck size estimation from pathogen genetic data, although there is not yet a consistency in the statistical methods used. Here, we introduce a new approach to infer the bottleneck size that accounts for variant identification protocols and noise during pathogen replication. We show that failing to account for these factors leads to an underestimation of bottleneck sizes. We apply this method to an existing data set of human influenza virus infections, showing that transmission is governed by a loose, but highly variable, transmission bottleneck whose size is positively associated with the severity of infection of the donor. Beyond advancing our understanding of influenza virus transmission, we hope that this work will provide a standardized statistical approach for bottleneck size estimation for viral pathogens. Copyright © 2017 Sobel Leonard et al.

Temporal dynamics of linkage disequilibrium in two populations of bighorn sheep

PubMed Central

Miller, Joshua M; Poissant, Jocelyn; Malenfant, René M; Hogg, John T; Coltman, David W

2015-01-01

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is the nonrandom association of alleles at two markers. Patterns of LD have biological implications as well as practical ones when designing association studies or conservation programs aimed at identifying the genetic basis of fitness differences within and among populations. However, the temporal dynamics of LD in wild populations has received little empirical attention. In this study, we examined the overall extent of LD, the effect of sample size on the accuracy and precision of LD estimates, and the temporal dynamics of LD in two populations of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) with different demographic histories. Using over 200 microsatellite loci, we assessed two metrics of multi-allelic LD, D′, and χ′2. We found that both populations exhibited high levels of LD, although the extent was much shorter in a native population than one that was founded via translocation, experienced a prolonged bottleneck post founding, followed by recent admixture. In addition, we observed significant variation in LD in relation to the sample size used, with small sample sizes leading to depressed estimates of the extent of LD but inflated estimates of background levels of LD. In contrast, there was not much variation in LD among yearly cross-sections within either population once sample size was accounted for. Lack of pronounced interannual variability suggests that researchers may not have to worry about interannual variation when estimating LD in a population and can instead focus on obtaining the largest sample size possible. PMID:26380673

Variability in life-history and ecological traits is a buffer against extinction in mammals.

PubMed

González-Suárez, Manuela; Revilla, Eloy

2013-02-01

Anthropogenic degradation of the world's ecosystems is leading to a widespread and accelerating loss of biodiversity. However, not all species respond equally to existing threats, raising the question: what makes a species more vulnerable to extinction? We propose that higher intraspecific variability may reduce the risk of extinction, as different individuals and populations within a species may respond differently to occurring threats. Supporting this prediction, our results show that mammalian species with more variable adult body masses, litter sizes, sexual maturity ages and population densities are less vulnerable to extinction. Our findings reveal the role of local variation among populations, particularly of large mammals, as a buffering mechanism against extinction, and emphasise the importance of considering trait variation in comparative analyses and conservation management. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Body size preference and body weight perception among two migrant groups of non-Western origin.

PubMed

Nicolaou, Mary; Doak, Colleen; Dam, Rob van; Hosper, Karen; Seidell, Jaap; Stronks, Karien

2008-12-01

To evaluate body size preference, body weight perception and their relationship with actual weight in two migrant groups of non-Western origin, Turks and Moroccans; additionally, to study the association between body size preference and acculturation. Cross-sectional study. Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Males and females (18-30 years) were randomly selected from the population registry (n 451); participants, or at least one of their parents, were born in Turkey or Morocco. Body size preference was assessed using seven silhouette drawings and body weight perception was assessed by asking participants' opinion of own weight. Acculturation variables were generation status and two scale measures, cultural orientation and social contacts. Participants showed preference for a thin body size. The discrepancy between ideal and current size was significant in women but not men (P < 0.001). Perceived current body size was correlated with BMI (Spearman's correlation coefficient 0.60, P < 0.001 (men) and 0.73, P < 0.001 (women)). Among overweight participants (BMI = 25.0-29.9 kg/m2), 63-82 % of men and 35 % of women perceived themselves as 'average'. Paying attention to own body weight was associated with a discrepancy between ideal and current size among women and with perceiving oneself as 'overweight' among men. Body size preference was not significantly associated with the three acculturation variables. We did not observe a preference for large body sizes in these two non-Western migrant groups. Similar to Western populations, most women wished to be thinner than they were. This was not the case among men, the majority of whom were also unaware of being overweight.

Effective Population Size Differences in Calomys musculinus, the Host of Junín Virus: Its Relationship with the Epidemiological History of Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever.

PubMed

Chiappero, Marina B; Piacenza, María Florencia; Provensal, María Cecilia; Calderón, Gladys E; Gardenal, Cristina N; Polop, Jaime J

2018-06-11

Argentine hemorrhagic fever (AHF) is a serious endemic disease in Argentina, produced by Junín virus, whose host is the Sigmodontinae rodent Calomys musculinus . Within the endemic area, human incidence and proportion of infected rodents remains high for 5-10 years after the first appearance of the disease (epidemic [E] zone) and then gradually declines to sporadic cases (historic [H] zone). We tested the hypothesis that host populations within the E zone are large and well connected by gene flow, facilitating the transmission and maintenance of the virus, whereas those in the H and nonendemic (NE) zones are small and isolated, with the opposite effect. We estimated parameters affected by levels of gene flow and population size in 14 populations of C. musculinus : population effective size ( N e ), genetic variability, and mean relatedness. Our hypothesis was not supported: the lowest levels of variability and of N e and the highest genetic relatedness among individuals were found in the H zone. Populations from the NE zone displayed opposite results, whereas those in the E zone showed intermediate values. If we consider that populations are first NE, then E, and finally H, a correlative decrease in N e was observed. Chronically infected females have a low reproductive success. We propose that this would lower N e because each cohort would originate from a fraction of females of the previous generation, and affect other factors such as proportion of individuals that develop acute infection, probability of viral transmission, and evolution of virulence, which would explain, at least partly, the changing incidence of AHF.

Improving socioeconomic land use forecasting for medium-sized metropolitan organizations in Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

Socioeconomic forecasts are the foundation for long range travel demand modeling, projecting variables such as population, households, employment, and vehicle ownership. In Virginia, metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) develop socioeconomic fo...

Naturalization of plant populations: the role of cultivation and population size and density.

PubMed

Minton, Mark S; Mack, Richard N

2010-10-01

Field experimentation is required to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on small immigrant plant populations-a widely understood but largely unexplored aspect of predicting any species' likelihood of naturalization and potential invasion. Cultivation can mitigate this stochasticity, although the outcome for a population under cultivation nevertheless varies enormously from extinction to persistence. Using factorial experiments, we investigated the effects of population size, density, and cultivation (irrigation) on the fate of founder populations for four alien species with different life history characteristics (Echinochloa frumentacea, Fagopyrum esculentum, Helianthus annuus, and Trifolium incarnatum) in eastern Washington, USA. The fate of founder populations was highly variable within and among the 3 years of experimentation and illustrates the often precarious environment encountered by plant immigrants. Larger founder populations produced more seeds (P < 0.001); the role of founder population size, however, differed among years. Irrigation resulted in higher percent survival (P < 0.001) and correspondingly larger net reproductive rate (R(0); P < 0.001). But the minimum level of irrigation for establishment, R(0) > 1, differed among years and species. Sowing density did not affect the likelihood of establishment for any species. Our results underscore the importance of environmental stochasticity in determining the fate of founder populations and the potential of cultivation and large population size in countering the long odds against naturalization. Any implementation of often proposed post-immigration field trials to assess the risk of an alien species becoming naturalized, a requisite step toward invasion, will need to assess different sizes of founder populations and the extent and character of cultivation (intentional or unintentional) that the immigrants might receive.

Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hand, Brian K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Kovach, Ryan; Whited, Diane C.; Narum, Shawn R.; Matala, Andrew P.; Ackerman, Michael W.; Garner, B. A.; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A.; Luikart, Gordon

2016-01-01

Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

Growth and life history variability of the grey reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) across its range

PubMed Central

Bradley, Darcy; Conklin, Eric; Papastamatiou, Yannis P.; McCauley, Douglas J.; Pollock, Kydd; Kendall, Bruce E.; Gaines, Steven D.; Caselle, Jennifer E.

2017-01-01

For broadly distributed, often overexploited species such as elasmobranchs (sharks and rays), conservation management would benefit from understanding how life history traits change in response to local environmental and ecological factors. However, fishing obfuscates this objective by causing complex and often mixed effects on the life histories of target species. Disentangling the many drivers of life history variability requires knowledge of elasmobranch populations in the absence of fishing, which is rarely available. Here, we describe the growth, maximum size, sex ratios, size at maturity, and offer a direct estimate of survival of an unfished population of grey reef sharks (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) using data from an eight year tag-recapture study. We then synthesized published information on the life history of C. amblyrhynchos from across its geographic range, and for the first time, we attempted to disentangle the contribution of fishing from geographic variation in an elasmobranch species. For Palmyra’s unfished C. amblyrhynchos population, the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) growth coefficient k was 0.05 and asymptotic length L∞ was 163.3 cm total length (TL). Maximum size was 175.5 cm TL from a female shark, length at maturity was estimated at 116.7–123.2 cm TL for male sharks, maximum lifespan estimated from VBGF parameters was 18.1 years for both sexes combined, and annual survival was 0.74 year-1. Consistent with findings from studies on other elasmobranch species, we found significant intraspecific variability in reported life history traits of C. amblyrhynchos. However, contrary to what others have reported, we did not find consistent patterns in life history variability as a function of biogeography or fishing. Ultimately, the substantial, but not yet predictable variability in life history traits observed for C. amblyrhynchos across its geographic range suggests that regional management may be necessary to set sustainable harvest targets and to recover this and other shark species globally. PMID:28207874

Growth and life history variability of the grey reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) across its range.

PubMed

Bradley, Darcy; Conklin, Eric; Papastamatiou, Yannis P; McCauley, Douglas J; Pollock, Kydd; Kendall, Bruce E; Gaines, Steven D; Caselle, Jennifer E

2017-01-01

For broadly distributed, often overexploited species such as elasmobranchs (sharks and rays), conservation management would benefit from understanding how life history traits change in response to local environmental and ecological factors. However, fishing obfuscates this objective by causing complex and often mixed effects on the life histories of target species. Disentangling the many drivers of life history variability requires knowledge of elasmobranch populations in the absence of fishing, which is rarely available. Here, we describe the growth, maximum size, sex ratios, size at maturity, and offer a direct estimate of survival of an unfished population of grey reef sharks (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) using data from an eight year tag-recapture study. We then synthesized published information on the life history of C. amblyrhynchos from across its geographic range, and for the first time, we attempted to disentangle the contribution of fishing from geographic variation in an elasmobranch species. For Palmyra's unfished C. amblyrhynchos population, the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) growth coefficient k was 0.05 and asymptotic length L∞ was 163.3 cm total length (TL). Maximum size was 175.5 cm TL from a female shark, length at maturity was estimated at 116.7-123.2 cm TL for male sharks, maximum lifespan estimated from VBGF parameters was 18.1 years for both sexes combined, and annual survival was 0.74 year-1. Consistent with findings from studies on other elasmobranch species, we found significant intraspecific variability in reported life history traits of C. amblyrhynchos. However, contrary to what others have reported, we did not find consistent patterns in life history variability as a function of biogeography or fishing. Ultimately, the substantial, but not yet predictable variability in life history traits observed for C. amblyrhynchos across its geographic range suggests that regional management may be necessary to set sustainable harvest targets and to recover this and other shark species globally.

Landscape attributes and life history variability shape genetic structure of trout populations in a stream network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neville, H.M.; Dunham, J.B.; Peacock, M.M.

2006-01-01

Spatial and temporal landscape patterns have long been recognized to influence biological processes, but these processes often operate at scales that are difficult to study by conventional means. Inferences from genetic markers can overcome some of these limitations. We used a landscape genetics approach to test hypotheses concerning landscape processes influencing the demography of Lahontan cutthroat trout in a complex stream network in the Great Basin desert of the western US. Predictions were tested with population- and individual-based analyses of microsatellite DNA variation, reflecting patterns of dispersal, population stability, and local effective population sizes. Complementary genetic inferences suggested samples from migratory corridors housed a mixture of fish from tributaries, as predicted based on assumed migratory life histories in those habitats. Also as predicted, populations presumed to have greater proportions of migratory fish or from physically connected, large, or high quality habitats had higher genetic variability and reduced genetic differentiation from other populations. Populations thought to contain largely non-migratory individuals generally showed the opposite pattern, suggesting behavioral isolation. Estimated effective sizes were small, and we identified significant and severe genetic bottlenecks in several populations that were isolated, recently founded, or that inhabit streams that desiccate frequently. Overall, this work suggested that Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in stream networks are affected by a combination of landscape and metapopulation processes. Results also demonstrated that genetic patterns can reveal unexpected processes, even within a system that is well studied from a conventional ecological perspective. ?? Springer 2006.

Exploitation dynamics of small fish stocks like Arctic cisco

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielsen, Jennifer L.

2004-01-01

Potential impacts to the Arctic cisco population fall into both demographic and behavioral categories. Possible demographic impacts include stock recruitment effects, limited escapement into marine habitats, and variable age-class reproductive success. Potential behavioral impacts involve migratory patterns, variable life histories, and strategies for seasonal feeding. Arctic cisco stocks are highly susceptible to over-exploitation due to our limited basic knowledge of the highly variable Arctic environment and the role they play in this dynamic ecosystem.Our knowledge of potential demographic changes is very limited, and it is necessary to determine the abundance and recruitment of the hypothesized Mackenzie River source population, the extent of the coastal migratory corridor, growth patterns, and coastal upwelling and mixing effects on population dynamics for this species. Information needed to answer some of the demographic questions includes basic evolutionary history and molecular genetics of Arctic cisco (for instance, are there contributions to the Arctic cisco stock from the Yukon?), what is the effective population size (i.e., breeding population size), and potential links to changes in climate. The basic behavioral questions include migratory and variable life history questions. For instance, the extent of movement back and forth between freshwater and the sea, age-specific differences in food web dynamics, and nearshore brackish and high salinity habitats are topics that should be studied. Life history data should be gathered to understand the variation in age at reproduction, salinity tolerance, scale and duration of the freshwater stage, survival, and adult migration. Both molecular and ecological tools should be integrated to manage the Arctic cisco stock(s), such as understanding global climate changes on patterns of harvest and recruitment, and the genetics of population structure and colonization. Perhaps other populations are contributing to the population within the Colville River other than only the Mackenzie River population. This needs further exploration. By examining otolith microchemistry, unique transitions from freshwater to sea can be identified for these stocks. This may shed light on why some fish arrive at the mouth of the Colville River, while others don’t.

The Artisanal Production of Pulque, a Traditional Beverage of the Mexican Highlands.

PubMed

Valadez-Blanco, Rogelio; Bravo-Villa, Griselda; Santos-Sánchez, Norma F; Velasco-Almendarez, Sandra I; Montville, Thomas J

2012-06-01

Pulque is a traditional fermented alcoholic, acidic, viscous drink of the Mexican central highlands. Its production from the "aguamiel" (sap) of agave plants dates back ~1,500 years and continues to be made by artisanal methods. However, the variability of pulque's quality and its instability hamper its widespread distribution and consumption. Microbiological surveys of pulque from three ranches revealed tremendous variability in the types and quantity of the indigenous microbiota. The population of lactic acid bacteria ranged from 6 × 10(7) to 2 × 10(11) CFU/mL. This variability might be attributed to the conditions on the ranches where the pulque was made. In an attempt to identify these sources of variability, the microbial populations of aguamiel and pulque from a single agave plant were determined. Surprisingly, the population size of the "unfermented" aguamiel and the pulque converged by the end of 3 weeks. The potential use of bacteriocinogenic LAB and known starter cultures to improve pulque properties are discussed.

Discriminant function sexing of fragmentary and complete femora: standards for contemporary Croatia.

PubMed

Slaus, Mario; Strinović, Davor; Skavić, Josip; Petrovecki, Vedrana

2003-05-01

Determining sex is one of the first and most important steps in identifying decomposed corpses or skeletal remains. Previous studies have demonstrated that populations differ from each other in size and proportion and that these differences can affect metric assessment of sex. This paper establishes standards for determining sex from fragmentary and complete femurs in a modern Croatian population. The sample is composed of 195 femora (104 male and 91 female) from positively identified victims of the 1991 War in Croatia. Six discriminant functions were generated. one using seven variables, three using two variables, and two employing one variable. Results show that complete femora can be sexed with 94.4% accuracy. The same overall accuracy, with slight differences in male/female accuracy, was achieved using a combination of two variables defining the epiphyses, and with the variable maximum diameter of the femoral head.

Analysis of intraspecific seed diversity in Astragalus aquilanus (Fabaceae), an endemic species of Central Apennine.

PubMed

Di Cecco, V; Di Musciano, M; D'Archivio, A A; Frattaroli, A R; Di Martino, L

2018-05-20

This work aims to study seeds of the endemic species Astragalus aquilanus from four different populations of central Italy. We investigated seed morpho-colorimetric features (shape and size) and chemical differences (through infrared spectroscopy) among populations and between dark and light seeds. Seed morpho-colorimetric quantitative variables, describing shape, size and colour traits, were measured using image analysis techniques. Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy was used to attempt seed chemical characterisation. The measured data were analysed by step-wise linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Moreover, we analysed the correlation between the four most important traits and six climatic variables extracted from WorldClim 2.0. The LDA on seeds traits shows clear differentiation of the four populations, which can be attributed to different chemical composition, as confirmed by Wilk's lambda test (P < 0.001). A strong correlation between morphometric traits and temperature (annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the warmest and coolest quarter), colorimetric traits and precipitation (annual precipitation, precipitation of wettest and driest quarter) was observed. The characterisation of A. aquilanus seeds shows large intraspecific plasticity both in morpho-colorimetric and chemical composition. These results confirm the strong relationship between the type of seed produced and the climatic variables. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Intraspecific variation in body size and shape in an andean highland anole species, Anolis ventrimaculatus (Squamata: Dactyloidae).

PubMed

Calderón-Espinosa, Martha L; Ortega-León, Angela M; Zamora-Abrego, Joan G

2013-03-01

Variation in body characteristics related to lizard locomotion has been poorly studied at the intraspecific level in Anolis species. Local adaptation due to habitat heterogeneity has been reported in some island species. However, studies of mainland species are particularly scarce and suggest different patterns: high variability among highland lizards and poorly differentiated populations in one Amazonian species. We characterized inter population variation of body size and shape in the highland Andean Anolis ventrimaculatus, an endemic species from Western Colombia. A total of 15 morphometric variables were measured in specimens from the reptile collection of the Instituto de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional, Colombia. The study included individuals from seven different highland localities. We found size and shape sexual dimorphism, both of which varied among localities. Patterns of variation in body proportions among populations were different in both males and females, suggesting that either sexual or natural selective factors are different in each locality and between sexes. Since this species exhibits a fragmented distribution in highlands, genetic divergence may also be a causal factor of the observed variation. Ecological, behavioral, additional morphological as well as phylogenetic data, may help to understand the evolutionary processes behind the geographic patterns found in this species.

Complex small pelagic fish population patterns arising from individual behavioral responses to their environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brochier, Timothée; Auger, Pierre-Amaël; Pecquerie, Laure; Machu, Eric; Capet, Xavier; Thiaw, Modou; Mbaye, Baye Cheikh; Braham, Cheikh-Baye; Ettahiri, Omar; Charouki, Najib; Sène, Ousseynou Ndaw; Werner, Francisco; Brehmer, Patrice

2018-05-01

Small pelagic fish (SPF) species are heavily exploited in eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) as their transformation products are increasingly used in the world's food chain. Management relies on regular monitoring, but there is a lack of robust theories for the emergence of the populations' traits and their evolution in highly variable environments. This work aims to address existing knowledge gaps by combining physical and biogeochemical modelling with an individual life-cycle based model applied to round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) off northwest Africa, a key species for regional food security. Our approach focused on the processes responsible for seasonal migrations, spatio-temporal size-structure, and interannual biomass fluctuations. Emergence of preferred habitat resulted from interactions between natal homing behavior and environmental variability that impacts early life stages. Exploration of the environment by the fishes was determined by swimming capabilities, mesoscale to regional habitat structure, and horizontal currents. Fish spatio-temporal abundance variability emerged from a complex combination of distinct life-history traits. An alongshore gradient in fish size distributions is reported and validated by in situ measurements. New insights into population structure are provided, within an area where the species is abundant year-round (Mauritania) and with latitudinal migrations of variable (300-1200 km) amplitude. Interannual biomass fluctuations were linked to modulations of fish recruitment over the Sahara Bank driven by variability in alongshore current intensity. The identified processes constitute an analytical framework that can be implemented in other EBUS and used to explore impacts of regional climate change on SPF.

Development and Monte Carlo Study of a Procedure for Correcting the Standardized Mean Difference for Measurement Error in the Independent Variable

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nugent, William Robert; Moore, Matthew; Story, Erin

2015-01-01

The standardized mean difference (SMD) is perhaps the most important meta-analytic effect size. It is typically used to represent the difference between treatment and control population means in treatment efficacy research. It is also used to represent differences between populations with different characteristics, such as persons who are…

Dynamics of chromosome number and genome size variation in a cytogenetically variable sedge (Carex scoparia var. scoparia, Cyperaceae).

PubMed

Chung, Kyong-Sook; Weber, Jaime A; Hipp, Andrew L

2011-01-01

High intraspecific cytogenetic variation in the sedge genus Carex (Cyperaceae) is hypothesized to be due to the "diffuse" or non-localized centromeres, which facilitate chromosome fission and fusion. If chromosome number changes are dominated by fission and fusion, then chromosome evolution will result primarily in changes in the potential for recombination among populations. Chromosome duplications, on the other hand, entail consequent opportunities for divergent evolution of paralogs. In this study, we evaluate whether genome size and chromosome number covary within species. We used flow cytometry to estimate genome sizes in Carex scoparia var. scoparia, sampling 99 plants (23 populations) in the Chicago region, and we used meiotic chromosome observations to document chromosome numbers and chromosome pairing relations. Chromosome numbers range from 2n = 62 to 2n = 68, and nuclear DNA 1C content from 0.342 to 0.361 pg DNA. Regressions of DNA content on chromosome number are nonsignificant for data analyzed by individual or population, and a regression model that excludes slope is favored over a model in which chromosome number predicts genome size. Chromosome rearrangements within cytogenetically variable Carex species are more likely a consequence of fission and fusion than of duplication and deletion. Moreover, neither genome size nor chromosome number is spatially autocorrelated, which suggests the potential for rapid chromosome evolution by fission and fusion at a relatively fine geographic scale (<350 km). These findings have important implications for ecological restoration and speciation within the largest angiosperm genus of the temperate zone.

[Integration of demographic variables into development plans in the Sahel].

PubMed

Wane, H R

1992-07-01

A founding principle of the Program of Action of N'Djamena is the interdependence of population and development and the need for development strategies to take demographic factors into account. The concept of integration of population variables into development has evolved since its introduction in the 1974 World Population Plan of Action from a simple description of population size, growth rates, and distribution to a stress on harmonizing population policies and development policies with macroeconomic variables. The essence of the concept is the consideration given by development policies and programs to the interrelations between population, resources, the environment, and development factors. Population variables and goals should ideally be treated as endogenous variables in development planning, but in practice the extreme complexity of such a systematic approach limits its ability to be made operational. Usually the most crucial problems only are included. Integrated planning is composed of explicit or implicit population policies intended to influence demographic variables and of socioeconomic policies intended to adapt to demographic change. In the Sahel, only Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Mali have formal population policies, but around 1980 several countries of the region began to show interest in influencing demographic variables as they did economic variables. Fundamental principles for developing an integration strategy can be applied regardless or whether the plan is based on projections, analysis of interaction of a demographic variable with factors specific to a sector, or a monosectorial or multisectorial demoeconomic planning model. Demographic data is used more frequently in diagnosing problems than in developing projections or formulating objectives. The level of disaggregation of demographic projections and estimates tends to be low, despite the great potential utility of demographic projections in planning. Demographic projections can be useful in analyses of the extent of changes and the implications of alternative scenarios of development planning. The most frequently used demographic variables in development planning have been spatial distribution of the population and mortality. An examination of past development plans in Mali relating to population and nutrition and population and health reveals several inconsistencies between stated goals and strategies intended to achieve them. The incoherence can be explained in part by the absence of a coherent national population policy, the failure to translate the population policy into programs that take into account reciprocal effects of demographic trends and economic perspectives and their social effects, and the absence of disaggregated population projections. An example from Senegal demonstrates the constraints imposed by structural adjustment programs on the entire planning process.

Single and simultaneous binary mergers in Wright-Fisher genealogies.

PubMed

Melfi, Andrew; Viswanath, Divakar

2018-05-01

The Kingman coalescent is a commonly used model in genetics, which is often justified with reference to the Wright-Fisher (WF) model. Current proofs of convergence of WF and other models to the Kingman coalescent assume a constant sample size. However, sample sizes have become quite large in human genetics. Therefore, we develop a convergence theory that allows the sample size to increase with population size. If the haploid population size is N and the sample size is N 1∕3-ϵ , ϵ>0, we prove that Wright-Fisher genealogies involve at most a single binary merger in each generation with probability converging to 1 in the limit of large N. Single binary merger or no merger in each generation of the genealogy implies that the Kingman partition distribution is obtained exactly. If the sample size is N 1∕2-ϵ , Wright-Fisher genealogies may involve simultaneous binary mergers in a single generation but do not involve triple mergers in the large N limit. The asymptotic theory is verified using numerical calculations. Variable population sizes are handled algorithmically. It is found that even distant bottlenecks can increase the probability of triple mergers as well as simultaneous binary mergers in WF genealogies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrative Lifecourse and Genetic Analysis of Military Working Dogs

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

done as the samples are collected in order to avoid experimental variability and batch effects . Detailed description and discussion of this task...associated loss of power to detect all associations but those of large effect sizes) and latent variables (e.g., population structure – addressed in...processes associated with tissue development and maintenance are thus grouped with external environmental effects . This in turn suggests how those

Variability in the Results of Meta-Analysis as a Function of Comparing Effect Sizes Based on Scores from Noncomparable Measures: A Simulation Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nugent, William R.

2017-01-01

Meta-analysis is a significant methodological advance that is increasingly important in research synthesis. Fundamental to meta-analysis is the presumption that effect sizes, such as the standardized mean difference (SMD), based on scores from different measures are comparable. It has been argued that population observed score SMDs based on scores…

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo.

PubMed

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82% of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28%) and subadult males (29%). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Legacy lost: genetic variability and population size of extirpated US grey wolves (Canis lupus).

PubMed

Leonard, Jennifer A; Vilà, Carles; Wayne, Robert K

2005-01-01

By the mid 20th century, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) was exterminated from most of the conterminous United States (cUS) and Mexico. However, because wolves disperse over long distances, extant populations in Canada and Alaska might have retained a substantial proportion of the genetic diversity once found in the cUS. We analysed mitochondrial DNA sequences of 34 pre-extermination wolves and found that they had more than twice the diversity of their modern conspecifics, implying a historic population size of several hundred thousand wolves in the western cUS and Mexico. Further, two-thirds of the haplotypes found in the historic sample are unique. Sequences from Mexican grey wolves (C. l. baileyi) and some historic grey wolves defined a unique southern clade supporting a much wider geographical mandate for the reintroduction of Mexican wolves than currently planned. Our results highlight the genetic consequences of population extinction within Ice Age refugia and imply that restoration goals for grey wolves in the western cUS include far less area and target vastly lower population sizes than existed historically.

Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Goshe, Lisa R.; Coggins, Lewis; Shaver, Donna J.; Higgins, Ben; Landry, Andre M.; Bailey, Rhonda

2017-01-01

Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM) and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp’s ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr) and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL)) estimated using the “rapprochement” skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp’s ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends. PMID:28333937

Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Avens, Larisa; Goshe, Lisa R; Coggins, Lewis; Shaver, Donna J; Higgins, Ben; Landry, Andre M; Bailey, Rhonda

2017-01-01

Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM) and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp's ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr) and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL)) estimated using the "rapprochement" skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp's ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends.

Microsatellite marker analysis of the genetic variability in Hanoverian Hounds.

PubMed

Lüpke, L; Distl, O

2005-04-01

Genetic variability of the dog breed Hanoverian Hound was analysed using a set of 16 microsatellites. The sample of 92 dogs was representative for the total current population [n=334, inbreeding coefficient 9.2%, relationship coefficient 11.2%] with respect to the level and distribution of the inbreeding and relationship coefficients. All microsatellites used were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The average number of alleles was 6.4. The average observed heterozygosity (H(O)) was slightly higher than the expected heterozygosity (H(E)). Dinucleotide microsatellites exhibited lower polymorphism information content (PIC) than tetranucleotide microsatellites (0.52 versus 0.66). The average PIC was 0.61. The individual inbreeding coefficient was negatively related to the average H(O) of all microsatellites, whereas the proportion of genes from introducing of Hanoverian Hounds from abroad showed no relationships to H(O). We found that the genetic variability in the Hanoverian Hounds analysed here was unexpectedly higher than that previously published for dog breeds of similar population size. Even in dog breeds of larger population size heterogyzosity was seldom higher than that observed here. The rather high genetic variability as quantified by polymorphic microsatellites in Hanoverian Hounds may be due to a large genetic variation in the founder animals of this breed and to the fact that this genetic diversity could be maintained despite genetic bottlenecks experienced by this breed in the 1920s and 1950s and despite the presence of high inbreeding and relationship coefficients for more than 50 years.

Climatic and geographic predictors of life history variation in Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus): A range-wide synthesis.

PubMed

Hileman, Eric T; King, Richard B; Adamski, John M; Anton, Thomas G; Bailey, Robyn L; Baker, Sarah J; Bieser, Nickolas D; Bell, Thomas A; Bissell, Kristin M; Bradke, Danielle R; Campa, Henry; Casper, Gary S; Cedar, Karen; Cross, Matthew D; DeGregorio, Brett A; Dreslik, Michael J; Faust, Lisa J; Harvey, Daniel S; Hay, Robert W; Jellen, Benjamin C; Johnson, Brent D; Johnson, Glenn; Kiel, Brooke D; Kingsbury, Bruce A; Kowalski, Matthew J; Lee, Yu Man; Lentini, Andrew M; Marshall, John C; Mauger, David; Moore, Jennifer A; Paloski, Rori A; Phillips, Christopher A; Pratt, Paul D; Preney, Thomas; Prior, Kent A; Promaine, Andrew; Redmer, Michael; Reinert, Howard K; Rouse, Jeremy D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Sutton, Scott; VanDeWalle, Terry J; Weatherhead, Patrick J; Wynn, Doug; Yagi, Anne

2017-01-01

Elucidating how life history traits vary geographically is important to understanding variation in population dynamics. Because many aspects of ectotherm life history are climate-dependent, geographic variation in climate is expected to have a large impact on population dynamics through effects on annual survival, body size, growth rate, age at first reproduction, size-fecundity relationship, and reproductive frequency. The Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus) is a small, imperiled North American rattlesnake with a distribution centered on the Great Lakes region, where lake effects strongly influence local conditions. To address Eastern Massasauga life history data gaps, we compiled data from 47 study sites representing 38 counties across the range. We used multimodel inference and general linear models with geographic coordinates and annual climate normals as explanatory variables to clarify patterns of variation in life history traits. We found strong evidence for geographic variation in six of nine life history variables. Adult female snout-vent length and neonate mass increased with increasing mean annual precipitation. Litter size decreased with increasing mean temperature, and the size-fecundity relationship and growth prior to first hibernation both increased with increasing latitude. The proportion of gravid females also increased with increasing latitude, but this relationship may be the result of geographically varying detection bias. Our results provide insights into ectotherm life history variation and fill critical data gaps, which will inform Eastern Massasauga conservation efforts by improving biological realism for models of population viability and climate change.

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Phenotypic plasticity in sex allocation for a simultaneously hermaphroditic coral reef fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, M. K.; Svoboda, A.; Mancilla Cortez, D.

2011-06-01

Phenotypic plasticity can facilitate reproductive strategies that maximize mating success in variable environments and lead to differences in sex allocation among populations. For simultaneous hermaphrodites with sperm competition, including Serranus tortugarum a small coral reef fish, proportional male allocation (testis in total gonad) is often greater where local density or mating group size is higher. We tested whether S. tortugarum reduced male allocation when transplanted from a higher density site to a lower density site. After 4 months, transplants mirrored the sex-allocation patterns of the resident population on their new reef. Transplants had significantly lower male allocation than representatives from their source population, largely as a result of reduced testis mass relative to body size.

Modeling annual mallard production in the prairie-parkland region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.W.

2000-01-01

Biologists have proposed several environmental factors that might influence production of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) nesting in the prairie-parkland region of the United States and Canada. These factors include precipitation, cold spring temperatures, wetland abundance, and upland breeding habitat. I used long-term historical data sets of climate, wetland numbers, agricultural land use, and size of breeding mallard populations in multiple regression analyses to model annual indices of mallard production. Models were constructed at 2 scales: a continental scale that encompassed most of the mid-continental breeding range of mallards and a stratum-level scale that included 23 portions of that same breeding range. The production index at the continental scale was the estimated age ratio of mid-continental mallards in early fall; at the stratum scale my production index was the estimated number of broods of all duck species within an aerial survey stratum. Size of breeding mallard populations in May, and pond numbers in May and July, best modeled production at the continental scale. Variables that best modeled production at the stratum scale differed by region. Crop variables tended to appear more in models for western Canadian strata; pond variables predominated in models for United States strata; and spring temperature and pond variables dominated models for eastern Canadian strata. An index of cold spring temperatures appeared in 4 of 6 models for aspen parkland strata, and in only 1 of 11 models for strata dominated by prairie. Stratum-level models suggest that regional factors influencing mallard production are not evident at a larger scale. Testing these potential factors in a manipulative fashion would improve our understanding of mallard population dynamics, improving our ability to manage the mid-continental mallard population.

Effective size of two feral domestic cat populations (Felis catus L): effect of the mating system.

PubMed

Kaeuffer, R; Pontier, D; Devillard, S; Perrin, N

2004-02-01

A variety of behavioural traits have substantial effects on the gene dynamics and genetic structure of local populations. The mating system is a plastic trait that varies with environmental conditions in the domestic cat (Felis catus) allowing an intraspecific comparison of the impact of this feature on genetic characteristics of the population. To assess the potential effect of the heterogenity of males' contribution to the next generation on variance effective size, we applied the ecological approach of Nunney & Elam (1994) based upon a demographic and behavioural study, and the genetic 'temporal methods' of Waples (1989) and Berthier et al. (2002) using microsatellite markers. The two cat populations studied were nearly closed, similar in size and survival parameters, but differed in their mating system. Immigration appeared extremely restricted in both cases due to environmental and social constraints. As expected, the ratio of effective size to census number (Ne/N) was higher in the promiscuous cat population (harmonic mean = 42%) than in the polygynous one (33%), when Ne was calculated from the ecological method. Only the genetic results based on Waples' estimator were consistent with the ecological results, but failed to evidence an effect of the mating system. Results based on the estimation of Berthier et al. (2002) were extremely variable, with Ne sometimes exceeding census size. Such low reliability in the genetic results should retain attention for conservation purposes.

Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia’s spinifex grasslands

PubMed Central

Bliege Bird, Rebecca; Codding, Brian F.; Kauhanen, Peter G.

2012-01-01

Across diverse ecosystems, greater climatic variability tends to increase wildfire size, particularly in Australia, where alternating wet–dry cycles increase vegetation growth, only to leave a dry overgrown landscape highly susceptible to fire spread. Aboriginal Australian hunting fires have been hypothesized to buffer such variability, mitigating mortality on small-mammal populations, which have suffered declines and extinctions in the arid zone coincident with Aboriginal depopulation. We test the hypothesis that the relationship between climate and fire size is buffered through the maintenance of an anthropogenic, fine-grained fire regime by comparing the effect of climatic variability on landscapes dominated by Martu Aboriginal hunting fires with those dominated by lightning fires. We show that Aboriginal fires are smaller, more tightly clustered, and remain small even when climate variation causes huge fires in the lightning region. As these effects likely benefit threatened small-mammal species, Aboriginal hunters should be considered trophic facilitators, and policies aimed at reducing the risk of large fires should promote land-management strategies consistent with Aboriginal burning regimes. PMID:22689979

Neighbour effects on Erica multiflora (Ericaceae) reproductive performance after clipping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilà, Montserrat; Terradas, Jaume

1998-04-01

The effect of interspecific competition on resprouting and reproductive success and the relationship between above-ground vegetative biomass variability and reproductive biomass variability were analysed during resprouting after clipping. For this purpose, a field experiment was performed by removing neighbours around individuals of Erica multiflora in a Mediterranean shrub community. Removal of neighbours increased the number of sprouts and the above-ground vegetative biomass of target plants. However, it did not decrease plant size variability. Neighbours decreased the likelihood of fruiting and the biomass of fruits. In target plants that had set fruits a simple allometric relationship between above-ground vegetative biomass and the biomass of fruits explained 42% of the variation in fruit biomass. The probability to set fruits at a given plant size was smaller in plants with neighbours than without neighbours. Presence of neighbours also increased the variability of fruit biomass within the population, because 50% of target plants with neighbours did not set fruits. This failure to set fruits may be related to shading, the small size of plants with neighbours, as well as a delay in development.

A comparative test of adaptive hypotheses for sexual size dimorphism in lizards.

PubMed

Cox, Robert M; Skelly, Stephanie L; John-Alder, Henry B

2003-07-01

It is commonly argued that sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in lizards has evolved in response to two primary, nonexclusive processes: (1) sexual selection for large male size, which confers an advantage in intrasexual mate competition (intrasexual selection hypothesis), and (2) natural selection for large female size, which confers a fecundity advantage (fecundity advantage hypothesis). However, outside of several well-studied lizard genera, the empirical support for these hypotheses has not been examined with appropriate phylogenetic control. We conducted a comparative phylogenetic analysis to test these hypotheses using literature data from 497 lizard populations representing 302 species and 18 families. As predicted by the intrasexual selection hypothesis, male aggression and territoriality are correlated with SSD, but evolutionary shifts in these categorical variables each explain less than 2% of the inferred evolutionary change in SSD. We found stronger correlations between SSD and continuous estimates of intrasexual selection such as male to female home range ratio and female home range size. These results are consistent with the criticism that categorical variables may obscure much of the actual variation in intrasexual selection intensity needed to explain patterns in SSD. In accordance with the fecundity advantage hypothesis, SSD is correlated with clutch size, reproductive frequency, and reproductive mode (but not fecundity slope, reduced major axis estimator of fecundity slope, length of reproductive season, or latitude). However, evolutionary shifts in clutch size explain less than 8% of the associated change in SSD, which also varies significantly in the absence of evolutionary shifts in reproductive frequency and mode. A multiple regression model retained territoriality and clutch size as significant predictors of SSD, but only 16% of the variation in SSD is explained using these variables. Intrasexual selection for large male size and fecundity selection for large female size have undoubtedly helped to shape patterns of SSD across lizards, but the comparative data at present provide only weak support for these hypotheses as general explanations for SSD in this group. Future work would benefit from the consideration of alternatives to these traditional evolutionary hypotheses, and the elucidation of proximate mechanisms influencing growth and SSD within populations.

Population dynamics coded in DNA: genetic traces of the expansion of modern humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimmel, Marek

1999-12-01

It has been proposed that modern humans evolved from a small ancestral population, which appeared several hundred thousand years ago in Africa. Descendants of the founder group migrated to Europe and then to Asia, not mixing with the pre-existing local populations but replacing them. Two demographic elements are present in this “out of Africa” hypothesis: numerical growth of the modern humans and their migration into Eurasia. Did these processes leave an imprint in our DNA? To address this question, we use the classical Fisher-Wright-Moran model of population genetics, assuming variable population size and two models of mutation: the infinite-sites model and the stepwise-mutation model. We use the coalescence theory, which amounts to tracing the common ancestors of contemporary genes. We obtain mathematical formulae expressing the distribution of alleles given the time changes of population size . In the framework of the infinite-sites model, simulations indicate that the pattern of past population size change leaves its signature on the pattern of DNA polymorphism. Application of the theory to the published mitochondrial DNA sequences indicates that the current mitochondrial DNA sequence variation is not inconsistent with the logistic growth of the modern human population. In the framework of the stepwise-mutation model, we demonstrate that population bottleneck followed by growth in size causes an imbalance between allele-size variance and heterozygosity. We analyze a set of data on tetranucleotide repeats which reveals the existence of this imbalance. The pattern of imbalance is consistent with the bottleneck being most ancient in Africans, most recent in Asians and intermediate in Europeans. These findings are consistent with the “out of Africa” hypothesis, although by no means do they constitute its proof.

The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

2017-06-14

Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

The Population of Optically Faint GEO Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seitzer, Patrick; Barker, Ed; Buckalew, Brent; Burkhardt, Andrew; Cowardin, Heather; Frith, James; Gomez, Juan; Kaleida, Catherine; Lederer, Susan M.; Lee, Chris H.

2016-01-01

The 6.5-m Magellan telescope 'Walter Baade' at the Las Campanas Observatory in Chile has been used for spot surveys of the GEO orbital regime to study the population of optically faint GEO debris. The goal is to estimate the size of the population of GEO debris at sizes much smaller than can be studied with 1-meter class telescopes. Despite the small size of the field of view of the Magellan instrument (diameter 0.5-degree), a significant population of objects fainter than R = 19th magnitude have been found with angular rates consistent with circular orbits at GEO. We compare the size of this population with the numbers of GEO objects found at brighter magnitudes by smaller telescopes. The observed detections have a wide range in characteristics starting with those appearing as short uniform streaks. But there are a substantial number of detections with variations in brightness, flashers, during the 5-second exposure. The duration of each of these flashes can be extremely brief: sometimes less than half a second. This is characteristic of a rapidly tumbling object with a quite variable projected size times albedo. If the albedo is of the order of 0.2, then the largest projected size of these objects is around 10-cm. The data in this paper was collected over the last several years using Magellan's IMACS camera in f/2 mode. The analysis shows the brightness bins for the observed GEO population as well as the periodicity of the flashers. All objects presented are correlated with the catalog: the focus of the paper will be on the uncorrelated, optically faint, objects. The goal of this project is to better characterize the faint debris population in GEO that access to a 6.5-m optical telescope in a superb site can provide.

Wing geometry of Culex coronator (Diptera: Culicidae) from South and Southeast Brazil

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Coronator Group encompasses Culex coronator Dyar & Knab, Culex camposi Dyar, Culex covagarciai Forattini, Culex ousqua Dyar, Culex usquatissimus Dyar, Culex usquatus Dyar and Culex yojoae Strickman. Culex coronator has the largest geographic distribution, occurring in North, Central and South America. Moreover, it is a potential vector-borne mosquito species because females have been found naturally infected with several arboviruses, i.e., Saint Louis Encephalitis Virus, Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Virus and West Nile Virus. Considering the epidemiological importance of Cx. coronator, we investigated the wing shape diversity of Cx. coronator from South and Southeast Brazil, a method to preliminarily estimate population diversity. Methods Field-collected immature stages of seven populations from a large geographical area in Brazil were maintained in the laboratory to obtain both females and males linked with pupal and/or larval exuviae. For each individual female, 18 landmarks of left wings were marked and digitalized. After Procrustes superimposition, discriminant analysis of shape was employed to quantify wing shape variation among populations. The isometric estimator centroid size was calculated to assess the overall wing size and allometry. Results Wing shape was polymorphic among populations of Cx. coronator. However, dissimilarities among populations were higher than those observed within each population, suggesting populational differentiation in Cx. coronator. Morphological distances between populations were not correlated to geographical distances, indicating that other factors may act on wing shape and thus, determining microevolutionary patterns in Cx. coronator. Despite the population differentiation, intrapopulational wing shape variability was equivalent among all seven populations. Conclusion The wing variability found in Cx. coronator populations brings to light a new biological problem to be investigated: the population genetics of Cx. coronator. Because of differences in the male genitalia, we also transferred Cx. yojoae to the Apicinus Subgroup. PMID:24721508

Phenotypic plasticity of life-history traits of a calanoid copepod in a tropical lake: Is the magnitude of thermal plasticity related to thermal variability?

PubMed

Ortega-Mayagoitia, Elizabeth; Hernández-Martínez, Osvaldo; Ciros-Pérez, Jorge

2018-01-01

According to the Climatic Variability Hypothesis [CVH], thermal plasticity should be wider in organisms from temperate environments, but is unlikely to occur in tropical latitudes where temperature fluctuations are narrow. In copepods, food availability has been suggested as the main driver of phenotypic variability in adult size if the range of temperature change is less than 14°C. Leptodiaptomus garciai is a calanoid copepod inhabiting Lake Alchichica, a monomictic, tropical lake in Mexico that experiences regular, narrow temperature fluctuations but wide changes in phytoplankton availability. We investigated whether the seasonal fluctuations of temperature and food produce phenotypic variation in the life-history traits of this tropical species. We sampled L. garciai throughout a year and measured female size, egg size and number, and hatching success, along with temperature and phytoplankton biomass. The amplitude of the plastic responses was estimated with the Phenotypic Plasticity Index. This index was also computed for a published dataset of 84 copepod populations to look if there is a relationship between the amplitude of the phenotypic plasticity of adult size and seasonal change in temperature. The temperature annual range in Lake Alchichica was 3.2°C, whereas phytoplankton abundance varied 17-fold. A strong pattern of thermal plasticity in egg size and adult female size followed the inverse relationship with temperature commonly observed in temperate environments, although its adaptive value was not demonstrated. Egg number, relative reproductive effort and number of nauplii per female were clearly plastic to food availability, allowing organisms to increase their fitness. When comparing copepod species from different latitudes, we found that the magnitude of thermal plasticity of adult size is not related to the range of temperature variation; furthermore, thermal plasticity exists even in environments of limited temperature variation, where the response is more intense compared to temperate populations.

Phenotypic plasticity of life-history traits of a calanoid copepod in a tropical lake: Is the magnitude of thermal plasticity related to thermal variability?

PubMed Central

Hernández-Martínez, Osvaldo; Ciros-Pérez, Jorge

2018-01-01

According to the Climatic Variability Hypothesis [CVH], thermal plasticity should be wider in organisms from temperate environments, but is unlikely to occur in tropical latitudes where temperature fluctuations are narrow. In copepods, food availability has been suggested as the main driver of phenotypic variability in adult size if the range of temperature change is less than 14°C. Leptodiaptomus garciai is a calanoid copepod inhabiting Lake Alchichica, a monomictic, tropical lake in Mexico that experiences regular, narrow temperature fluctuations but wide changes in phytoplankton availability. We investigated whether the seasonal fluctuations of temperature and food produce phenotypic variation in the life-history traits of this tropical species. We sampled L. garciai throughout a year and measured female size, egg size and number, and hatching success, along with temperature and phytoplankton biomass. The amplitude of the plastic responses was estimated with the Phenotypic Plasticity Index. This index was also computed for a published dataset of 84 copepod populations to look if there is a relationship between the amplitude of the phenotypic plasticity of adult size and seasonal change in temperature. The temperature annual range in Lake Alchichica was 3.2°C, whereas phytoplankton abundance varied 17-fold. A strong pattern of thermal plasticity in egg size and adult female size followed the inverse relationship with temperature commonly observed in temperate environments, although its adaptive value was not demonstrated. Egg number, relative reproductive effort and number of nauplii per female were clearly plastic to food availability, allowing organisms to increase their fitness. When comparing copepod species from different latitudes, we found that the magnitude of thermal plasticity of adult size is not related to the range of temperature variation; furthermore, thermal plasticity exists even in environments of limited temperature variation, where the response is more intense compared to temperate populations. PMID:29708999

Potential environmental influences on variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism among Arizona populations of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amarello, Melissa; Nowak, Erica M.; Taylor, Emily N.; Schuett, Gordon W.; Repp, Roger A.; Rosen, Philip C.; Hardy, David L.

2010-01-01

Differences in resource availability and quality along environmental gradients are important influences contributing to intraspecific variation in body size, which influences numerous life-history traits. Here, we examined variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in relation to temperature, seasonality, and precipitation among 10 populations located throughout Arizona of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox). Specifically, in our analyses we addressed the following questions: (i) Are adult males larger in cooler, wetter areas? (ii) Does female body size respond differently to environmental variation? (iii) Is seasonality a better predictor of body size variation? (iv) Is SSD positively correlated with increased resources? We demonstrate that male and female C. atrox are larger in body size in cooler (i.e., lower average annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperature) and wetter areas (i.e., higher average annual precipitation, more variable precipitation, and available surface water). Although SSD in C. atrox appeared to be more pronounced in cooler, wetter areas, this relationship did not achieve statistical significance.

Intraspecific variability in the life histories of endemic coral-reef fishes between photic and mesophotic depths across the Central Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winston, M. S.; Taylor, B. M.; Franklin, E. C.

2017-06-01

Mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) represent the lowest depth distribution inhabited by many coral reef-associated organisms. Research on fishes associated with MCEs is sparse, leading to a critical lack of knowledge of how reef fish found at mesophotic depths may vary from their shallow reef conspecifics. We investigated intraspecific variability in body condition and growth of three Hawaiian endemics collected from shallow, photic reefs (5-33 m deep) and MCEs (40-75 m) throughout the Hawaiian Archipelago and Johnston Atoll: the detritivorous goldring surgeonfish, Ctenochaetus strigosus, and the planktivorous threespot chromis, Chromis verater, and Hawaiian dascyllus, Dascyllus albisella. Estimates of body condition and size-at-age varied between shallow and mesophotic depths; however, these demographic differences were outweighed by the magnitude of variability found across the latitudinal gradient of locations sampled within the Central Pacific. Body condition and maximum body size were lowest in samples collected from shallow and mesophotic Johnston Atoll sites, with no difference occurring between depths. Samples from the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands tended to have the highest body condition and reached the largest body sizes, with differences between shallow and mesophotic sites highly variable among species. The findings of this study support newly emerging research demonstrating intraspecific variability in the life history of coral-reef fish species whose distributions span shallow and mesophotic reefs. This suggests not only that the conservation and fisheries management should take into consideration differences in the life histories of reef-fish populations across spatial scales, but also that information derived from studies of shallow fishes be applied with caution to conspecific populations in mesophotic coral environments.

Reproductive traits of tropical deep-water pandalid shrimps ( Heterocarpus ensifer) from the SW Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briones-Fourzán, Patricia; Barradas-Ortíz, Cecilia; Negrete-Soto, Fernando; Lozano-Álvarez, Enrique

2010-08-01

Heterocarpus ensifer is a tropical deep-water pandalid shrimp whose reproductive features are poorly known. We examined reproductive traits of a population of H. ensifer inhabiting the continental slope (311-715 m in depth) off the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico (SW Gulf of Mexico). Size range of the total sample ( n=816) was 10.4-38.9 mm carapace length. Females grow larger than males, but both sexes mature at 57% of their maximum theoretical size and at ˜30% of their total lifespan. Among adult females, the proportion of ovigerous females was high in all seasons, indicating year-round reproduction. Most females carrying embryos in advanced stages of development had ovaries in advanced stages of maturation, indicating production of successive spawns. In the autumn, however, the proportion of ovigerous females and the condition index of these females were lower compared to other seasons. This pattern potentially reflects a reduction in food resources following the summer minimum in particulate organic carbon flux to the deep benthos, as reported in previous studies. Spawns consisting of large numbers (16024±5644, mean±SD) of small eggs (0.045±0.009 mm 3) are consistent with extended planktotrophic larval development, an uncommon feature in deep-water carideans. Egg number increased as a power function of female size but with substantial variability, and egg size varied widely within and between females. There was no apparent trade-off between egg number and egg size and neither of these two variables was influenced by female condition. These results indicate iteroparity and a high and variable reproductive effort, reflecting a reproductive strategy developed to compensate for high larval mortality. The present study provides a baseline to compare reproductive traits between Atlantic populations of this tropical deep-water pandalid.

Population growth is a variable open to change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potts, M.

2016-12-01

The absolute number of people and the rate of population growth have an impact on climate mitigation, adaptation and possible conflict. Half the pregnancies in the US are unintended. Robust quantitative evidence from California demonstrates that improving access to family planning is the single most cost-effective way of mitigating our carbon footprint. Globally, there are 80 million unintended pregnancies annually. Many non-evidence barriers deprive women of the information and means required to separate sex from childbearing. Between 1960 and 1990, meeting the need for family planning led to a rapid fall in family size in much of Asia. Since 1990, funding for family planning has collapsed and fertility decline has stalled. The UN projects that by 2100 global population will increase by 3.8 billion (equal to world population in 1975). 80% of this growth will be in Africa. Studies project that climate change will undermine crop yields in parts of Africa, especially the Sahel. A high ratio of young males to the rest of the population is a risk factor in conflict. Today, only 1% of overseas assistance is allocated to family planning. Based on analysis of the past, doubling that investment would accelerate fertility decline, facilitating climate mitigation and adaptation, and possibly reducing conflict. Population and family planning were pushed off the international agenda by unacceptably and tragic episodes of coercion in China and India. However, there is compelling data that when voluntary family planning is widely available then family size can fall rapidly, as occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where fertility fell more rapidly than in any other country in history. Family planning is listening to what women want not telling people want to do. Population growth is a variable open to change in a human rights framework. Population and family planning are variables relevant to the scientific agenda of the AGU.

Temporal variation in temperature determines disease spread and maintenance in Paramecium microcosm populations

PubMed Central

Duncan, Alison B.; Fellous, Simon; Kaltz, Oliver

2011-01-01

The environment is rarely constant and organisms are exposed to temporal and spatial variations that impact their life histories and inter-species interactions. It is important to understand how such variations affect epidemiological dynamics in host–parasite systems. We explored effects of temporal variation in temperature on experimental microcosm populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Infected and uninfected populations of two P. caudatum genotypes were created and four constant temperature treatments (26°C, 28°C, 30°C and 32°C) compared with four variable treatments with the same mean temperatures. Variable temperature treatments were achieved by alternating populations between permissive (23°C) and restrictive (35°C) conditions daily over 30 days. Variable conditions and high temperatures caused greater declines in Paramecium populations, greater fluctuations in population size and higher incidence of extinction. The additional effect of parasite infection was additive and enhanced the negative effects of the variable environment and higher temperatures by up to 50 per cent. The variable environment and high temperatures also caused a decrease in parasite prevalence (up to 40%) and an increase in extinction (absence of detection) (up to 30%). The host genotypes responded similarly to the different environmental stresses and their effect on parasite traits were generally in the same direction. This work provides, to our knowledge, the first experimental demonstration that epidemiological dynamics are influenced by environmental variation. We also emphasize the need to consider environmental variance, as well as means, when trying to understand, or predict population dynamics or range. PMID:21450730

Morphological correlates of echolocation frequency in the endemic Cape horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus capensis (Chiroptera: Rhinolophidae).

PubMed

Odendaal, Lizelle J; Jacobs, David S

2011-05-01

We investigated intraspecific variation in echolocation calls of the Cape horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus capensis, by comparing echolocation and associated morphological parameters among individuals from three populations of this species. The populations were situated in the center and at the western and eastern limits of the distribution of R. capensis. The latter two populations were situated in ecotones between vegetation biomes. Ecotone populations deviated slightly from the allometric relationship between body size and peak frequency for the genus, and there was no relationship between these variables within R. capensis. Nasal chamber length was the best predictor of peak frequency but not correlated with body size. The evolution of echolocation thus appears to have been uncoupled from body size in R. capensis. Furthermore, females used higher frequencies than males, which imply a potential social role for peak frequency. The differences in peak frequency may have originated from random founder effects and then compounded by genetic drift and/or natural selection. The latter may have acted directly on peak frequency altering skull parameters involved in echolocation independently of body size, resulting in the evolution of local acoustic signatures.

Analysis of morphological variability and heritability in the head of the Argentine Black and White Tegu (Salvator merianae): undisturbed vs. disturbed environments.

PubMed

Imhoff, Carolina; Giri, Federico; Siroski, Pablo; Amavet, Patricia

2018-04-01

The heterogeneity of biotic and abiotic factors influencing fitness produce selective pressures that promote local adaptation and divergence among different populations of the same species. In order for adaptations to be maintained through evolutionary time, heritable genetic variation controlling the expression of the morphological features under selection is necessary. Here we compare morphological shape variability and size of the cephalic region of Salvator merianae specimens from undisturbed environments to those of individuals from disturbed environments, and estimated heritability for shape and size using geometric morphometric and quantitative genetics tools. The results of these analyzes indicated that there are statistically significant differences in shape and size between populations from the two environments. Possibly, one of the main determinants of cephalic shape and size is adaptation to the characteristics of the environment and to the trophic niche. Individuals from disturbed environments have a cephalic region with less shape variation and also have a larger centroid size when compared to individuals from undisturbed environments. The high heritability values obtained for shape and size in dorsal view and right side view indicate that these phenotypic characters have a great capacity to respond to the selection pressures to which they are subjected. Data obtained here could be used as an important tool when establishing guidelines for plans for the sustainable use and conservation of S. merianae and other species living in disturbed areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Interannual variability of growth and reproduction in Bursera simaruba: the role of allometry and resource variability.

PubMed

Hulshof, Catherine M; Stegen, James C; Swenson, Nathan G; Enquist, Carolyn A F; Enquist, Brian J

2012-01-01

Plants are expected to differentially allocate resources to reproduction, growth, and survival in order to maximize overall fitness. Life history theory predicts that the allocation of resources to reproduction should occur at the expense of vegetative growth. Although it is known that both organism size and resource availability can influence life history traits, few studies have addressed how size dependencies of growth and reproduction and variation in resource supply jointly affect the coupling between growth and reproduction. In order to understand the relationship between growth and reproduction in the context of resource variability, we utilize a long-term observational data set consisting of 670 individual trees over a 10-year period within a local population of Bursera simaruba (L.) Sarg. We (1) quantify the functional form and variability in the growth-reproduction relationship at the population and individual-tree level and (2) develop a theoretical framework to understand the allometric dependence of growth and reproduction. Our findings suggest that the differential responses of allometric growth and reproduction to resource availability, both between years and between microsites, underlie the apparent relationship between growth and reproduction. Finally, we offer an alternative approach for quantifying the relationship between growth and reproduction that accounts for variation in allometries.

Analysis of variables affecting unemployment rate and detecting for cluster in West Java, Central Java, and East Java in 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuel, Putra A.; Widyaningsih, Yekti; Lestari, Dian

2016-02-01

The objective of this study is modeling the Unemployment Rate (UR) in West Java, Central Java, and East Java, with rate of disease, infant mortality rate, educational level, population size, proportion of married people, and GDRP as the explanatory variables. Spatial factors are also considered in the modeling since the closer the distance, the higher the correlation. This study uses the secondary data from BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik). The data will be analyzed using Moran I test, to obtain the information about spatial dependence, and using Spatial Autoregressive modeling to obtain the information, which variables are significant affecting UR and how great the influence of the spatial factors. The result is, variables proportion of married people, rate of disease, and population size are related significantly to UR. In all three regions, the Hotspot of unemployed will also be detected districts/cities using Spatial Scan Statistics Method. The results are 22 districts/cities as a regional group with the highest unemployed (Most likely cluster) in the study area; 2 districts/cities as a regional group with the highest unemployed in West Java; 1 district/city as a regional groups with the highest unemployed in Central Java; 15 districts/cities as a regional group with the highest unemployed in East Java.

Population structure and effective/census population size ratio in threatened three-spined stickleback populations from an isolated river basin in northwest Spain.

PubMed

Pérez-Figueroa, A; Fernández, C; Amaro, R; Hermida, M; San Miguel, E

2015-08-01

Variability at 20 microsatellite loci was examined to assess the population genetic structure, gene flow, and effective population size (N(e)) in three populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the upper basin of the Miño River in Galicia, NW Spain, where this species is threatened. The three populations showed similar levels of genetic diversity. There is a significant genetic differentiation between the three populations, but also significant gene flow. N(e) estimates based on linkage disequilibrium yielded values of 355 for the Miño River population and 241 and 311 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively, although we expect that these are overestimates. N(e) estimates based on temporal methods, considering gene flow or not, for the tributaries yielded values of 30-56 and 47-56 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively. Estimated census size (N(c)) for the Rato River was 880 individuals. This yielded a N(e)/N(c) estimate of 3-6 % for temporal estimation of N(e), which is within the empirical range observed in freshwater fishes. We suggest that the three populations analyzed have a sufficient level of genetic diversity with some genetic structure. Additionally, the absence of physical barriers suggests that conservation efforts and monitoring should focus in the whole basin as a unit.

Determination of complex electromechanical coefficients for piezoelectric materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xiao-Hong

Sugar maple decline, a result of many possible biotic and abiotic causes, has been a problem in northern Pennsylvania since the early 1980s. Several studies have focused on specific causes, yet few have tried to look at a wide array. The purpose of this research was to investigate stresses in sugar maple forest plots in northern Pennsylvania. Three studies were undertaken. The first study examined the spatial extent of sugar maple on 248 plots in Bailey's ecoregions 212F and 212G, which are glaciated and unglaciated regions, respectively. In addition, a health assessment of sugar maple in Pennsylvania was made, with a resulting separation in population between healthy and unhealthy stands occurring at 20 percent dead sugar maple basal area. The second study was conducted to evaluate a statistical sampling design of 28 forested plots, from the above studies population of plots (248), and to provide data on physical and chemical soil variability and sample size estimation for other researchers. The variability of several soil parameters was examined within plots and between health classes of sugar maple and sample size estimations were derived for these populations. The effect of log-normal transformations on reducing variability and sample sizes was examined and soil descriptions of the plots sampled in 1998 were compared to the USDA Soil Survey mapping unit series descriptions for the plot location. Lastly, the effect of sampling intensity on the detection of significant differences between health class treatments was examined. The last study addressed sugar maple decline in northern Pennsylvania during the same period as the first study (approximately 1979-1989) but on 28 plots chosen from the first studies population. These were the same plots used in the second study on soil variability. Recent literature on sugar maple decline has focused on specific causes and few have tried to look at a wide array. This paper investigates stresses in sugar maple plots related to moisture and how these interact with other stresses such as chemistry, insect defoliation, geology, aspect, slope, topography, and atmospheric deposition.

Detection of quasars in the time domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Matthew J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Stern, Daniel J.; Drake, Andrew; Mahabal, Ashish

2017-06-01

The time domain is the emerging forefront of astronomical research with new facilities and instruments providing unprecedented amounts of data on the temporal behavior of astrophysical populations. Dealing with the size and complexity of this requires new techniques and methodologies. Quasars are an ideal work set for developing and applying these: they vary in a detectable but not easily quantifiable manner whose physical origins are poorly understood. In this paper, we will review how quasars are identified by their variability and how these techniques can be improved, what physical insights into their variability can be gained from studying extreme examples of variability, and what approaches can be taken to increase the number of quasars known. These will demonstrate how astroinformatics is essential to discovering and understanding this important population.

Prediction of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Related Mortality- Lessons Learned from the In-Silico Approach: A European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Acute Leukemia Working Party Data Mining Study.

PubMed

Shouval, Roni; Labopin, Myriam; Unger, Ron; Giebel, Sebastian; Ciceri, Fabio; Schmid, Christoph; Esteve, Jordi; Baron, Frederic; Gorin, Norbert Claude; Savani, Bipin; Shimoni, Avichai; Mohty, Mohamad; Nagler, Arnon

2016-01-01

Models for prediction of allogeneic hematopoietic stem transplantation (HSCT) related mortality partially account for transplant risk. Improving predictive accuracy requires understating of prediction limiting factors, such as the statistical methodology used, number and quality of features collected, or simply the population size. Using an in-silico approach (i.e., iterative computerized simulations), based on machine learning (ML) algorithms, we set out to analyze these factors. A cohort of 25,923 adult acute leukemia patients from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) registry was analyzed. Predictive objective was non-relapse mortality (NRM) 100 days following HSCT. Thousands of prediction models were developed under varying conditions: increasing sample size, specific subpopulations and an increasing number of variables, which were selected and ranked by separate feature selection algorithms. Depending on the algorithm, predictive performance plateaued on a population size of 6,611-8,814 patients, reaching a maximal area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.67. AUCs' of models developed on specific subpopulation ranged from 0.59 to 0.67 for patients in second complete remission and receiving reduced intensity conditioning, respectively. Only 3-5 variables were necessary to achieve near maximal AUCs. The top 3 ranking variables, shared by all algorithms were disease stage, donor type, and conditioning regimen. Our findings empirically demonstrate that with regards to NRM prediction, few variables "carry the weight" and that traditional HSCT data has been "worn out". "Breaking through" the predictive boundaries will likely require additional types of inputs.

Population variables and life-history characteristics of the alligator pipefish Syngnathoides biaculeatus, in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Barrows, A P W; Martin-Smith, K M; Baine, M S P

2009-03-01

Population structure and life-history variables of the widely distributed alligator pipefish Syngnathoides biaculeatus were characterized in Bootless Bay, Papua New Guinea over the course of 11 months. There was little evidence of seasonality with four focal populations showing no significant change in abundance. Similarly, the sex ratio remained 1:1 for all but 1 month. Reproductive males carrying eggs (148-278 mm in total length, L(T)) were found in all months. Brood size was significantly, positively related to male L(T) for newly laid broods only. Maximum observed brood size was 351 and mean +/-s.d. brood size was 238 +/- 57 for newly laid broods. Juveniles and males showed no change in mean L(T) over the year while slightly smaller females were captured in November 2006 and September 2007. Males were significantly longer than females so von Bertalanffy growth coefficients were estimated separately for each sex: males L(infinity)= 285 mm, K = 0.82 year(-1) and females L(infinity)= 261 mm, K = 1.10 year(-1). These estimates suggest that this species grows rapidly and has a short-life span. In the context of growing concern about overexploitation of syngnathids, a rapid growth rate combined with year round reproductive activity suggests that the tropical S. biaculeatus may be relatively resilient with regard to fishing pressure.

Estimates of population genetic diversity in brown bullhead catfish by DNA fingerprinting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roth, A.C.; Wessendarp, T.K.; Gordon, D.A.

Estimates of population genetic diversity may be a sensitive indicator of environmental impact, since limiting the effective breeding population by any means will result in loss of some variant genotypes, as has been demonstrated by allozyme analysis. DNA fingerprinting techniques are also coming into use for population analyses, and the authors chose to apply fingerprinting analysis three populations of brown bullhead catfish collected in Northern Ohio. DNA was isolated from the red blood cells of individual fish. Purified DNAs were digested with EcoR1 restriction enzyme; the digests were then sized on a 1% agarose gel, transferred to nylon membranes andmore » probed with a radiolabeled M13 probe using the Westneat hybridization protocol (Southern blotting). This method effects fragments containing VNTR (variable number of tandem repeat) sequences complementary to the M13, which are highly variable among individual catfish. Hybridized bands were visualized by a Molecular Dynamics phosphorimager and recorded and analyzed with its proprietary Imagequant image analysis program, Excel and SAS. A total of 10 variable bands were identified and their presence or absence scored in each individual. These data were analyzed to determine between and within-population similarity indices as well as population heterozygosity and genetic diversity measures.« less

Drivers of seabird population recovery on New Zealand islands after predator eradication.

PubMed

Buxton, Rachel T; Jones, Christopher; Moller, Henrik; Towns, David R

2014-04-01

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator-free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

The contribution of interindividual factors to variability of response in transcranial direct current stimulation studies

PubMed Central

Li, Lucia M.; Uehara, Kazumasa; Hanakawa, Takashi

2015-01-01

There has been an explosion of research using transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) for investigating and modulating human cognitive and motor function in healthy populations. It has also been used in many studies seeking to improve deficits in disease populations. With the slew of studies reporting “promising results” for everything from motor recovery after stroke to boosting memory function, one could be easily seduced by the idea of tDCS being the next panacea for all neurological ills. However, huge variability exists in the reported effects of tDCS, with great variability in the effect sizes and even contradictory results reported. In this review, we consider the interindividual factors that may contribute to this variability. In particular, we discuss the importance of baseline neuronal state and features, anatomy, age and the inherent variability in the injured brain. We additionally consider how interindividual variability affects the results of motor-evoked potential (MEP) testing with transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), which, in turn, can lead to apparent variability in response to tDCS in motor studies. PMID:26029052

Meeting Oregon's New High School Math Graduation Requirements: Examining Student Enrollment and Teacher Availability. Issues & Answers. REL 2012-No. 126

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raphael, Jacqueline; Sage, Nicole; Ishimaru, Ann

2012-01-01

Disaggregating the data across four school variables--size, locale, racial/ethnic minority population, and population eligible for free or reduced-price lunch--this study examines the extent to which Oregon grade 9-12 students enrolled in high school math courses during 2006/07 and 2007/08 would not have been on track to graduate had the new…

Meeting Oregon's New High School Math Graduation Requirements: Examining Student Enrollment and Teacher Availability. Summary. Issues & Answers. REL 2012-No. 126

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raphael, Jacqueline; Sage, Nicole; Ishimaru, Ann

2012-01-01

Disaggregating the data across four school variables--size, locale, racial/ethnic minority population, and population eligible for free or reduced-price lunch--this study examines the extent to which Oregon grade 9-12 students enrolled in high school math courses during 2006/07 and 2007/08 would not have been on track to graduate had the new…

Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H. T.; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

2015-01-01

Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland’s conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years’ census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. PMID:26601785

Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H. T.; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

2015-11-01

Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland’s conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years’ census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway.

Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River.

PubMed

Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H T; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

2015-11-25

Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland's conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years' census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway.

Does beekeeping reduce genetic variability in Melipona scutellaris (Apidae, Meliponini)?

PubMed

Carvalho-Zilse, G A; Costa-Pinto, M F F; Nunes-Silva, C G; Kerr, W E

2009-06-30

Many factors have contributed to reductions in wild populations of stingless bees, such as: deforestation, displacement and destruction of nests by honey gatherers, as well as use of insecticides and other agrochemicals. All of these can potentially affect the populational structure of native species. We analyzed genetic variability and populational structure of Melipona scutellaris, based on five microsatellite loci, using heterologous primers of M. bicolor. Samples were taken from 43 meliponaries distributed among 30 sites of four northeastern states of Brazil (Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe, and Bahia). Thirty-one alleles were found to be well distributed among the populations, with sizes ranging from 85 to 146 bp. In general, there was a variable distribution and frequency of alleles among populations, with either exclusive and/or fixed alleles at some sites. The population of Pernambuco was the most polymorphic, followed by Bahia, Alagoas and Sergipe. The heterozygosity was Ho = 0.36 on average, much lower than what has been reported for M. bicolor (Ho = 0.65). Most populations were not under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. We found a higher variation within rather than among populations, indicating no genetic structuring in those bees maintained in meliponaries. This apparent homogenization may be due to intense beekeeping activity, including exchange of genetic material among beekeepers. Based on our findings, we recommend more studies of meliponaries and of wild populations in order to help orient management and conservation of these native pollinators.

Rhodnius prolixus and Rhodnius robustus-like (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) wing asymmetry under controlled conditions of population density and feeding frequency.

PubMed

Márquez, E J; Saldamando-Benjumea, C I

2013-09-01

Habitat change in Rhodnius spp may represent an environmental challenge for the development of the species, particularly when feeding frequency and population density vary in nature. To estimate the effect of these variables in stability on development, the degree of directional asymmetry (DA) and fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in the wing size and shape of R. prolixus and R. robustus-like were measured under laboratory controlled conditions. DA and FA in wing size and shape were significant in both species, but their variation patterns showed both inter-specific and sexual dimorphic differences in FA of wing size and shape induced by nutrition stress. These results suggest different abilities of the genotypes and sexes of two sylvatic and domestic genotypes of Rhodnius to buffer these stress conditions. However, both species showed non-significant differences in the levels of FA between treatments that simulated sylvan vs domestic conditions, indicating that the developmental noise did not explain the variation in wing size and shape found in previous studies. Thus, this result confirm that the variation in wing size and shape in response to treatments constitute a plastic response of these genotypes to population density and feeding frequency.

Pollen limitation and Allee effect related to population size and sex ratio in the endangered Ottelia acuminata (Hydrocharitaceae): implications for conservation and reintroduction.

PubMed

Xia, J; Lu, J; Wang, Z X; Hao, B B; Wang, H B; Liu, G H

2013-03-01

Small populations may suffer more severe pollen limitation and result in Allee effects. Sex ratio may also affect pollination and reproduction success in dioecious species, which is always overlooked when performing conservation and reintroduction tasks. In this study, we investigated whether and how population size and sex ratio affected pollen limitation and reproduction in the endangered Ottelia acuminata, a dioecious submerged species. We established experimental plots with increasing population size and male sex ratio. We observed insect visitation, estimated pollen limitation by hand-pollinations and counted fruit set and seed production per fruit. Fruit set and seed production decreased significantly in small populations due to pollinator scarcity and thus suffered more severe pollen limitation. Although frequently visited, female-biased larger populations also suffered severe pollen limitation due to few effective visits and insufficient pollen availability. Rising male ratio enhanced pollination service and hence reproduction. Unexpectedly, pollinator preferences did not cause reduced reproduction in male-biased populations because of high pollen availability. However, reproductive outputs showed more variability in severe male-biased populations. Our results revealed two component Allee effects in fruit set and seed production, mediated by pollen limitation in O. acuminata. Moreover, reproduction decreased significantly in larger female-biased populations, increasing the risk of an Allee effect. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Do unpaved, low-traffic roads affect bird communities?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mammides, Christos; Kounnamas, Constantinos; Goodale, Eben; Kadis, Costas

2016-02-01

Unpaved, low traffic roads are often assumed to have minimal effects on biodiversity. To explore this assertion, we sampled the bird communities in fifteen randomly selected sites in Pafos Forest, Cyprus and used multiple regression to quantify the effects of such roads on the total species richness. Moreover, we classified birds according to their migratory status and their global population trends, and tested each category separately. Besides the total length of unpaved roads, we also tested: a. the site's habitat diversity, b. the coefficient of variation in habitat (patch) size, c. the distance to the nearest agricultural field, and d. the human population size of the nearest village. We measured our variables at six different distances from the bird point-count locations. We found a strong negative relationship between the total bird richness and the total length of unpaved roads. The human population size of the nearest village also had a negative effect. Habitat diversity was positively related to species richness. When the categories were tested, we found that the passage migrants were influenced more by the road network while resident breeders were influenced by habitat diversity. Species with increasing and stable populations were only marginally affected by the variables tested, but the effect of road networks on species with decreasing populations was large. We conclude that unpaved and sporadically used roads can have detrimental effects on the bird communities, especially on vulnerable species. We propose that actions are taken to limit the extent of road networks within protected areas, especially in sites designated for their rich avifauna, such as Pafos Forest, where several of the affected species are species of European and global importance.

Environmental factors influence both abundance and genetic diversity in a widespread bird species

PubMed Central

Liu, Yang; Webber, Simone; Bowgen, Katharine; Schmaltz, Lucie; Bradley, Katharine; Halvarsson, Peter; Abdelgadir, Mohanad; Griesser, Michael

2013-01-01

Genetic diversity is one of the key evolutionary variables that correlate with population size, being of critical importance for population viability and the persistence of species. Genetic diversity can also have important ecological consequences within populations, and in turn, ecological factors may drive patterns of genetic diversity. However, the relationship between the genetic diversity of a population and how this interacts with ecological processes has so far only been investigated in a few studies. Here, we investigate the link between ecological factors, local population size, and allelic diversity, using a field study of a common bird species, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus). We studied sparrows outside the breeding season in a confined small valley dominated by dispersed farms and small-scale agriculture in southern France. Population surveys at 36 locations revealed that sparrows were more abundant in locations with high food availability. We then captured and genotyped 891 house sparrows at 10 microsatellite loci from a subset of these locations (N = 12). Population genetic analyses revealed weak genetic structure, where each locality represented a distinct substructure within the study area. We found that food availability was the main factor among others tested to influence the genetic structure between locations. These results suggest that ecological factors can have strong impacts on both population size per se and intrapopulation genetic variation even at a small scale. On a more general level, our data indicate that a patchy environment and low dispersal rate can result in fine-scale patterns of genetic diversity. Given the importance of genetic diversity for population viability, combining ecological and genetic data can help to identify factors limiting population size and determine the conservation potential of populations. PMID:24363897

Using known populations of pronghorn to evaluate sampling plans and estimators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kraft, K.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Samuelson, J.M.; Allen, S.H.

1995-01-01

Although sampling plans and estimators of abundance have good theoretical properties, their performance in real situations is rarely assessed because true population sizes are unknown. We evaluated widely used sampling plans and estimators of population size on 3 known clustered distributions of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). Our criteria were accuracy of the estimate, coverage of 95% confidence intervals, and cost. Sampling plans were combinations of sampling intensities (16, 33, and 50%), sample selection (simple random sampling without replacement, systematic sampling, and probability proportional to size sampling with replacement), and stratification. We paired sampling plans with suitable estimators (simple, ratio, and probability proportional to size). We used area of the sampling unit as the auxiliary variable for the ratio and probability proportional to size estimators. All estimators were nearly unbiased, but precision was generally low (overall mean coefficient of variation [CV] = 29). Coverage of 95% confidence intervals was only 89% because of the highly skewed distribution of the pronghorn counts and small sample sizes, especially with stratification. Stratification combined with accurate estimates of optimal stratum sample sizes increased precision, reducing the mean CV from 33 without stratification to 25 with stratification; costs increased 23%. Precise results (mean CV = 13) but poor confidence interval coverage (83%) were obtained with simple and ratio estimators when the allocation scheme included all sampling units in the stratum containing most pronghorn. Although areas of the sampling units varied, ratio estimators and probability proportional to size sampling did not increase precision, possibly because of the clumped distribution of pronghorn. Managers should be cautious in using sampling plans and estimators to estimate abundance of aggregated populations.

The distribution of nuclear genetic variation and historical demography of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aguilar, A.; Jessup, David A.; Estes, J.; Garza, J.C.

2008-01-01

The amount and distribution of population genetic variation is crucial information for the design of effective conservation strategies for endangered species and can also be used to provide inference about demographic processes and patterns of migration. Here, we describe variation at a large number of nuclear genes in sea otters Enhydra lutris ssp. We surveyed 14 variable microsatellite loci and two genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in up to 350 California sea otters Enhydra lutris nereis, which represents ∼10% of the subspecies' population, and 46 otters from two Alaskan sites. We utilized methods for detecting past reductions in effective population size to examine the effects of near extinction from the fur trade. Summary statistic tests largely failed to find a signal of a recent population size reduction (within the past 200 years), but a Bayesian method found a signal of a strong reduction over a longer time scale (up to 500 years ago). These results indicate that the reduction in size began long enough ago that much genetic variation was lost before the 19th century fur trade. A comparison of geographic distance and pairwise relatedness for individual otters found no evidence of kin-based spatial clustering for either gender. This indicates that there is no population structure, due to extended family groups, within the California population. A survey of population genetic variation found that two of the MHC genes, DQB and DRB, had two alleles present and one of the genes, DRA, was monomorphic in otters. This contrasts with other mammals, where they are often the most variable coding genes known. Genetic variation in the sea otter is among the lowest observed for a mammal and raises concerns about the long-term viability of the species, particularly in the face of future environmental changes.

The size distribution of inhabited planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Fergus

2016-02-01

Earth-like planets are expected to provide the greatest opportunity for the detection of life beyond the Solar system. However, our planet cannot be considered a fair sample, especially if intelligent life exists elsewhere. Just as a person's country of origin is a biased sample among countries, so too their planet of origin may be a biased sample among planets. The magnitude of this effect can be substantial: over 98 per cent of the world's population live in a country larger than the median. In the context of a simple model where the mean population density is invariant to planet size, we infer that a given inhabited planet (such as our nearest neighbour) has a radius r < 1.2r⊕ (95 per cent confidence bound). We show that this result is likely to hold not only for planets hosting advanced life, but also for those which harbour primitive life forms. Further, inferences may be drawn for any variable which influences population size. For example, since population density is widely observed to decline with increasing body mass, we conclude that most intelligent species are expected to exceed 300 kg.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Evolution of Size and Chemical Composition of Copper Concentrate Particles Oxidized Under Simulated Flash Smelting Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Tello, Manuel; Parra-Sánchez, Víctor R.; Sánchez-Corrales, Víctor M.; Gómez-Álvarez, Agustín; Brown-Bojórquez, Francisco; Parra-Figueroa, Roberto A.; Balladares-Varela, Eduardo R.; Araneda-Hernández, Eugenia A.

2018-04-01

An experimental study was conducted to elucidate the evolution of size and chemical composition of La Caridad copper concentrate particles during oxidation under simulated flash smelting conditions. Input variables tested included particle size and oxygen concentration in the process gas. The response variables included the size distributions, chemical composition, and morphology of the reacted particles at seven locations along a laboratory reactor. Particles with initial size < 45 µm contained mostly chalcopyrite, they increased their mean size and decreased the amount of dust in the population during oxidation. This was explained by a reaction path involving rapid melting followed by collision and coalescence of reacting droplets during flight. Particles with sizes > 45 µm contained varying amounts of chalcopyrite and pyrite, and tended to either maintain or decrease their mean size upon oxidation. When size reduction was observed, dust was produced because of fragmentation, and the particles showed no evidence of collisions during flight. The main oxidation products detected in the particles consisted of matte, cuprospinel, and magnetite. A plot of the mean size divided by the mean size in the feed against the fraction of sulfur eliminated generalized the experimental data so far reported in the literature, and helped identify the reaction path followed by the particles.

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics.

PubMed

Fernández, Néstor; Román, Jacinto; Delibes, Miguel

2016-04-13

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity--a major outcome of ecosystem functions--on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. © 2016 The Authors.

Population and Individual Elephant Response to a Catastrophic Fire in Pilanesberg National Park

PubMed Central

Woolley, Leigh-Ann; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Woods, Rami J.; Janse van Rensburg, Samantha; Mackey, Robin L.; Page, Bruce; Slotow, Rob

2008-01-01

In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality) and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress) levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability), did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern seen in predator-free large ungulate populations, i.e. mainly involving juveniles. Fire therefore functions in a similar manner to other environmental catastrophes and may be a natural mechanism contributing to population limitation. Welfare concerns of arson fires, burning during “hot-fire” conditions and the conservation implications of fire suppression (i.e. removal of a potential contributing factor to natural population regulation) should be integrated into fire management strategies for conservation areas. PMID:18797503

Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

PubMed Central

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

2011-01-01

The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect is weak compared with the impact of changes in the mean and interannual variability of temperature. Extinction risk was largely insensitive to noise colour, because demographic rates are poor in tracking the colour of the environment. We show that three mechanisms—which probably act in many species—can cause poor environmental tracking: (i) demographic rates that depend nonlinearly on environmental variables filter the noise colour, (ii) demographic rates typically depend on several environmental signals that do not change colour synchronously, and (iii) demographic stochasticity whitens the colour of demographic rates at low population size. We argue that the common practice of assuming perfect environmental tracking may result in overemphasizing the importance of noise colour for extinction risk. Consequently, ignoring environmental autocorrelation in population viability analysis could be less problematic than generally thought. PMID:21561978

Harvesting, predation and competition effects on a red coral population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbiati, M.; Buffoni, G.; Caforio, G.; Di Cola, G.; Santangelo, G.

A Corallium rubrum population, dwelling in the Ligurian Sea, has been under observation since 1987. Biometric descriptors of colonies (base diameter, weight, number of polyps, number of growth rings) have been recorded and correlated. The population size structure was obtained by distributing the colonies into diameter classes, each size class representing the average annual increment of diameter growth. The population was divided into ten classes, including a recruitment class. This size structure showed a fairly regular trend in the first four classes. The irregularity of survival in the older classes agreed with field observations on harvesting and predation. Demographic parameters such as survival, growth plasticity and natality coefficients were estimated from the experimental data. On this basis a discrete nonlinear model was implemented. The model is based on a kind of density-dependent Leslie matrix, where the feedback term only occurs in survival of the first class; the recruitment function is assumed to be dependent on the total biomass and related to inhibiting effects due to competitive interactions. Stability analysis was applied to steady-state solutions. Numerical simulations of population evolution were carried out under different conditions. The dynamics of settlement and the effects of disturbances such as harvesting, predation and environmental variability were studied.

Can Foraging Ecology Drive the Evolution of Body Size in a Diving Endotherm?

PubMed Central

Cook, Timothée R.; Lescroël, Amélie; Cherel, Yves; Kato, Akiko; Bost, Charles-André

2013-01-01

Within a single animal species, different morphs can allow for differential exploitation of foraging niches between populations, while sexual size dimorphism can provide each sex with access to different resources. Despite being potentially important agents of evolution, resource polymorphisms, and the way they operate in wild populations, remain poorly understood. In this study, we examine how trophic factors can select for different body sizes between populations and sexes in a diving endotherm. Dive depth and duration are positively related to body size in diving birds and mammals, a relationship explained by a lower mass-specific metabolic rate and greater oxygen stores in larger individuals. Based on this allometry, we predict that selection for exploiting resources situated at different depths can drive the evolution of body size in species of diving endotherms at the population and sexual level. To test this prediction, we studied the foraging ecology of Blue-eyed Shags, a group of cormorants with male-biased sexual size dimorphism from across the Southern Ocean. We found that mean body mass and relative difference in body mass between sexes varied by up to 77% and 107% between neighbouring colonies, respectively. Birds from colonies with larger individuals dived deeper than birds from colonies with smaller individuals, when accounting for sex. In parallel, males dived further offshore and deeper than females and the sexual difference in dive depth reflected the level of sexual size dimorphism at each colony. We argue that body size in this group of birds is under intense selection for diving to depths of profitable benthic prey patches and that, locally, sexual niche divergence selection can exaggerate the sexual size dimorphism of Blue-eyed Shags initially set up by sexual selection. Our findings suggest that trophic resources can select for important geographic micro-variability in body size between populations and sexes. PMID:23409169

Can foraging ecology drive the evolution of body size in a diving endotherm?

PubMed

Cook, Timothée R; Lescroël, Amélie; Cherel, Yves; Kato, Akiko; Bost, Charles-André

2013-01-01

Within a single animal species, different morphs can allow for differential exploitation of foraging niches between populations, while sexual size dimorphism can provide each sex with access to different resources. Despite being potentially important agents of evolution, resource polymorphisms, and the way they operate in wild populations, remain poorly understood. In this study, we examine how trophic factors can select for different body sizes between populations and sexes in a diving endotherm. Dive depth and duration are positively related to body size in diving birds and mammals, a relationship explained by a lower mass-specific metabolic rate and greater oxygen stores in larger individuals. Based on this allometry, we predict that selection for exploiting resources situated at different depths can drive the evolution of body size in species of diving endotherms at the population and sexual level. To test this prediction, we studied the foraging ecology of Blue-eyed Shags, a group of cormorants with male-biased sexual size dimorphism from across the Southern Ocean. We found that mean body mass and relative difference in body mass between sexes varied by up to 77% and 107% between neighbouring colonies, respectively. Birds from colonies with larger individuals dived deeper than birds from colonies with smaller individuals, when accounting for sex. In parallel, males dived further offshore and deeper than females and the sexual difference in dive depth reflected the level of sexual size dimorphism at each colony. We argue that body size in this group of birds is under intense selection for diving to depths of profitable benthic prey patches and that, locally, sexual niche divergence selection can exaggerate the sexual size dimorphism of Blue-eyed Shags initially set up by sexual selection. Our findings suggest that trophic resources can select for important geographic micro-variability in body size between populations and sexes.

Relating Linear and Volumetric Variables Through Body Scanning to Improve Human Interfaces in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margerum, Sarah E.; Ferrer, Mike A.; Young, Karen S.; Rajulu, Sudhakar

2010-01-01

Designing space suits and vehicles for the diverse human population present unique challenges for the methods of traditional anthropometry. Space suits are bulky and allow the operator to shift position within the suit and inhibit the ability to identify body landmarks. Limited suit sizing options also cause variability in fit and performance between similarly sized individuals. Space vehicles are restrictive in volume in both the fit and the ability to collect data. NASA's Anthropometric and Biomechanics Facility (ABF) has utilized 3D scanning to shift from traditional linear anthropometry to explore and examine volumetric capabilities to provide anthropometric solutions for design. Overall, the key goals are to improve the human-system performance and develop new processes to aid in the design and evaluation of space systems. Four case studies are presented that illustrate the shift from purely linear analyses to an augmented volumetric toolset to predict and analyze the human within the space suit and vehicle. The first case study involves the calculation of maximal head volume to estimate total free volume in the helmet for proper air exchange. Traditional linear measurements resulted in an inaccurate representation of the head shape, yet limited data exists for the determination of a large head volume. Steps were first taken to identify and classify a maximum head volume and the resulting comparisons to the estimate are presented in this paper. This study illustrates the gap between linear components of anthropometry and the need for overall volume metrics in order to provide solutions. A second case study examines the overlay of the space suit scans and components onto scanned individuals to quantify fit and clearance to aid in sizing the suit to the individual. Restrictions in space suit size availability present unique challenges to optimally fit the individual within a limited sizing range while maintaining performance. Quantification of the clearance and fit between similarly sized individuals is critical in providing a greater understanding of the human body's function within the suit. The third case study presented in this paper explores the development of a conformal seat pan using scanning techniques, and details the challenges of volumetric analyses that were overcome in order to develop a universal seat pan that can be utilized across the entire user population. The final case study explores expanding volumetric capabilities through generation of boundary manikins. Boundary manikins are representative individuals from the population of interest that represent the extremes of the population spectrum. The ABF developed a technique to take three-dimensional scans of individuals and manipulate the scans to reflect the boundary manikins' anthropometry. In essence, this process generates a representative three-dimensional scan of an individual from anthropometry, using another individual's scanned image. The results from this process can be used in design process modeling and initial suit sizing work as a three dimensional, realistic example of individuals from the population, maintaining the variability between and correlation to the relevant dimensions of interest.

"Ant" and "grasshopper" life-history strategies in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed

Spor, Aymé; Wang, Shaoxiao; Dillmann, Christine; de Vienne, Dominique; Sicard, Delphine

2008-02-13

From the evolutionary and ecological points of view, it is essential to distinguish between the genetic and environmental components of the variability of life-history traits and of their trade-offs. Among the factors affecting this variability, the resource uptake rate deserves particular attention, because it depends on both the environment and the genetic background of the individuals. In order to unravel the bases of the life-history strategies in yeast, we grew a collection of twelve strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae from different industrial and geographical origins in three culture media differing for their glucose content. Using a population dynamics model to fit the change of population size over time, we estimated the intrinsic growth rate (r), the carrying capacity (K), the mean cell size and the glucose consumption rate per cell. The life-history traits, as well as the glucose consumption rate, displayed large genetic and plastic variability and genetic-by-environment interactions. Within each medium, growth rate and carrying capacity were not correlated, but a marked trade-off between these traits was observed over the media, with high K and low r in the glucose rich medium and low K and high r in the other media. The cell size was tightly negatively correlated to carrying capacity in all conditions. The resource consumption rate appeared to be a clear-cut determinant of both the carrying capacity and the cell size in all media, since it accounted for 37% to 84% of the variation of those traits. In a given medium, the strains that consume glucose at high rate have large cell size and low carrying capacity, while the strains that consume glucose at low rate have small cell size but high carrying capacity. These two contrasted behaviors may be metaphorically defined as "ant" and "grasshopper" strategies of resource utilization. Interestingly, a strain may be "ant" in one medium and "grasshopper" in another. These life-history strategies are discussed with regards to yeast physiology, and in an evolutionary perspective.

Role of Demographic Dynamics and Conflict in the Population-Area Relationship for Human Languages

PubMed Central

Manrubia, Susanna C.; Axelsen, Jacob B.; Zanette, Damián H.

2012-01-01

Many patterns displayed by the distribution of human linguistic groups are similar to the ecological organization described for biological species. It remains a challenge to identify simple and meaningful processes that describe these patterns. The population size distribution of human linguistic groups, for example, is well fitted by a log-normal distribution that may arise from stochastic demographic processes. As we show in this contribution, the distribution of the area size of home ranges of those groups also agrees with a log-normal function. Further, size and area are significantly correlated: the number of speakers and the area spanned by linguistic groups follow the allometric relation , with an exponent varying accross different world regions. The empirical evidence presented leads to the hypothesis that the distributions of and , and their mutual dependence, rely on demographic dynamics and on the result of conflicts over territory due to group growth. To substantiate this point, we introduce a two-variable stochastic multiplicative model whose analytical solution recovers the empirical observations. Applied to different world regions, the model reveals that the retreat in home range is sublinear with respect to the decrease in population size, and that the population-area exponent grows with the typical strength of conflicts. While the shape of the population size and area distributions, and their allometric relation, seem unavoidable outcomes of demography and inter-group contact, the precise value of could give insight on the cultural organization of those human groups in the last thousand years. PMID:22815726

Clonal structure and variable fertilization success in Florida Keys broadcast-spawning corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, M. W.; Baums, I. B.; Pausch, R. E.; Bright, A. J.; Cameron, C. M.; Williams, D. E.; Moffitt, Z. J.; Woodley, C. M.

2018-03-01

Keystone reef-building corals in the Caribbean are predominantly self-incompatible broadcast spawners and a majority are threatened due to both acute adult mortality and poor recruitment. As population densities decline, concerns about fertilization limitation and effective population size in these species increase and would be further exacerbated by either high clonality or gametic incompatibility of parental genotypes. This study begins to address these concerns for two Caribbean broadcasting species by characterizing clonal structure and quantifying experimental pairwise fertilization success. Orbicella faveolata showed surprisingly high and contrasting levels of clonality between two sampled sites; Acropora palmata was previously known to be highly clonal. Individual pairwise crosses of synchronously spawning genotypes of each species were conducted by combining aliquots of gamete bundles immediately after spawning, and showed high and significant variability in fertilization success. Over half of the individual crosses of O. faveolata and about one-third of A. palmata crosses yielded ≤ 40% fertilization. Total sperm concentration was quantified in only a subset of O. faveolata crosses (range of 1-6 × 107 mL-1), but showed no correlation with fertilization success. We interpret that both parental incompatibility and individual genotypes with low-quality gametes are likely to have contributed to the variable fertilization observed with important implications for conservation. Differential fertilization success implies effective population size may be considerably smaller than hoped and population enhancement efforts need to incorporate many more parental genotypes at the patch scale to ensure successful larval production than indicated by estimates based simply on preserving levels of standing genetic diversity.

Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

PubMed

Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

1998-11-01

We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

Effects of ultraviolet-B irradiance on intraspecific competition and facilitation of plants: self-thinning, size inequality, and phenotypic plasticity.

PubMed

Zhang, Rui-Chang; Lin, Yue; Yue, Ming; Li, Qian; Zhang, Xiao-Fei; Liu, Xiao; Chi, Hong; Chai, Yong-Fu; Wang, Mao

2012-01-01

(1) The effects of facilitation on the structure and dynamics of plant populations have not been studied so widely as competition. The UV-B radiation, as a typical environmental factor causing stress, may result in direct stress and facilitation. (2) The effects of UV-B radiation on intraspecific competition and facilitation were investigated based on the following three predictions on self-thinning, size inequality, and phenotypic plasticity: i) Self-thinning is the reduction in density that results from the increase in the mean biomass of individuals in crowded populations, and is driven by competition. In this study, the mortality rate of the population is predicted to decrease from UV-B irradiance. ii) The size inequality of a population increases with competition intensity because larger individuals receive a disproportionate share of resources, thereby leaving limited resources for smaller individuals. The second hypothesis assumes that direct stress decreases the size inequality of the population. iii) Phenotypic plasticity is the ability to alter one's morphology in response to environmental changes. The third hypothesis assumes that certain morphological indices can change among the trade-offs between competition, facilitation, and stress. These predictions were tested by conducting a field pot experiment using mung beans, and were supported by the following results: (3) UV-B radiation increased the survival rate of the population at the end of self-thinning. However, this result was mainly due to direct stress rather than facilitation. (4) Just as competitor, facilitation was also asymmetric. It increased the size inequality of populations during self-thinning, whereas stress decreased the size inequality. (5) Direct stress and facilitation influence plants differently on various scales. Stress inhibited plant growth, whereas facilitation showed the opposite on an individual scale. Stress increased survival rate, whereas facilitation increased individual variability on the population scale. (6) Trade-offs between competitions, facilitation, and direct stress varied in different growing stages.

Effects of Ultraviolet-B Irradiance on Intraspecific Competition and Facilitation of Plants: Self-Thinning, Size Inequality, and Phenotypic Plasticity

PubMed Central

Zhang, Rui-Chang; Lin, Yue; Yue, Ming; Li, Qian; Zhang, Xiao-Fei; Liu, Xiao; Chi, Hong; Chai, Yong-Fu; Wang, Mao

2012-01-01

(1) The effects of facilitation on the structure and dynamics of plant populations have not been studied so widely as competition. The UV-B radiation, as a typical environmental factor causing stress, may result in direct stress and facilitation. (2) The effects of UV-B radiation on intraspecific competition and facilitation were investigated based on the following three predictions on self-thinning, size inequality, and phenotypic plasticity: i) Self-thinning is the reduction in density that results from the increase in the mean biomass of individuals in crowded populations, and is driven by competition. In this study, the mortality rate of the population is predicted to decrease from UV-B irradiance. ii) The size inequality of a population increases with competition intensity because larger individuals receive a disproportionate share of resources, thereby leaving limited resources for smaller individuals. The second hypothesis assumes that direct stress decreases the size inequality of the population. iii) Phenotypic plasticity is the ability to alter one’s morphology in response to environmental changes. The third hypothesis assumes that certain morphological indices can change among the trade-offs between competition, facilitation, and stress. These predictions were tested by conducting a field pot experiment using mung beans, and were supported by the following results: (3) UV-B radiation increased the survival rate of the population at the end of self-thinning. However, this result was mainly due to direct stress rather than facilitation. (4) Just as competitor, facilitation was also asymmetric. It increased the size inequality of populations during self-thinning, whereas stress decreased the size inequality. (5) Direct stress and facilitation influence plants differently on various scales. Stress inhibited plant growth, whereas facilitation showed the opposite on an individual scale. Stress increased survival rate, whereas facilitation increased individual variability on the population scale. (6) Trade-offs between competitions, facilitation, and direct stress varied in different growing stages. PMID:23226393

GENETIC STRUCTURE OF NORWAY SPRUCE (PICEA ABIES): CONCORDANCE OF MORPHOLOGICAL AND ALLOZYMIC VARIATION.

PubMed

Lagercrantz, Ulf; Ryman, Nils

1990-02-01

This study describes the population structure of Norway spruce (Picea abies) as revealed by protein polymorphisms and morphological variation. Electrophoretically detectable genetic variability was examined at 22 protein loci in 70 populations from the natural range of the species in Europe. Like other conifers, Norway spruce exhibits a relatively large amount of genetic variability and little differentiation among populations. Sixteen polymorphic loci (73%) segregate for a total of 51 alleles, and average heterozygosity per population is 0.115. Approximately 5% of the total genetic diversity is explained by differences between populations (G ST = 0.052), and Nei's standard genetic distance is less than 0.04 in all cases. We suggest that the population structure largely reflects relatively recent historical events related to the last glaciation and that Norway spruce is still in a process of adaptation and differentiation. There is a clear geographic pattern in the variation of allele frequencies. A major part of the allelefrequency variation can be accounted for by a few synthetic variables (principal components), and 80% of the variation of the first principal component is "explained" by latitude and longitude. The central European populations are consistently depauperate of genetic variability, most likely as an effect of severe restrictions of population size during the last glaciation. The pattern of differentiation at protein loci is very similar to that observed for seven morphological traits examined. This similarity suggests that the same evolutionary forces have acted upon both sets of characters. © 1990 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Defectors Can Create Conditions That Rescue Cooperation

PubMed Central

Waite, Adam James; Cannistra, Caroline; Shou, Wenying

2015-01-01

Cooperation based on the production of costly common goods is observed throughout nature. This is puzzling, as cooperation is vulnerable to exploitation by defectors which enjoy a fitness advantage by consuming the common good without contributing fairly. Depletion of the common good can lead to population collapse and the destruction of cooperation. However, population collapse implies small population size, which, in a structured population, is known to favor cooperation. This happens because small population size increases variability in cooperator frequency across different locations. Since individuals in cooperator-dominated locations (which are most likely cooperators) will grow more than those in defector-dominated locations (which are most likely defectors), cooperators can outgrow defectors globally despite defectors outgrowing cooperators in each location. This raises the possibility that defectors can lead to conditions that sometimes rescue cooperation from defector-induced destruction. We demonstrate multiple mechanisms through which this can occur, using an individual-based approach to model stochastic birth, death, migration, and mutation events. First, during defector-induced population collapse, defectors occasionally go extinct before cooperators by chance, which allows cooperators to grow. Second, empty locations, either preexisting or created by defector-induced population extinction, can favor cooperation because they allow cooperator but not defector migrants to grow. These factors lead to the counterintuitive result that the initial presence of defectors sometimes allows better survival of cooperation compared to when defectors are initially absent. Finally, we find that resource limitation, inducible by defectors, can select for mutations adaptive to resource limitation. When these mutations are initially present at low levels or continuously generated at a moderate rate, they can favor cooperation by further reducing local population size. We predict that in a structured population, small population sizes precipitated by defectors provide a “built-in” mechanism for the persistence of cooperation. PMID:26690946

Extinction hazards in experimental Daphnia magna populations: effects of genotype diversity and environmental variation

PubMed Central

Robinson, John D; Wares, John P; Drake, John M

2013-01-01

Extinction is ubiquitous in natural systems and the ultimate fate of all biological populations. However, the factors that contribute to population extinction are still poorly understood, particularly genetic diversity and composition. A laboratory experiment was conducted to examine the influences of environmental variation and genotype diversity on persistence in experimental Daphnia magna populations. Populations were initiated in two blocks with one, two, three, or six randomly selected and equally represented genotypes, fed and checked for extinction daily, and censused twice weekly over a period of 170 days. Our results show no evidence for an effect of the number of genotypes in a population on extinction hazard. Environmental variation had a strong effect on hazards in both experimental blocks, but the direction of the effect differed between blocks. In the first block, variable environments hastened extinction, while in the second block, hazards were reduced under variable food input. This occurred despite greater fluctuations in population size in variable environments in the second block of our experiment. Our results conflict with previous studies, where environmental variation consistently increased extinction risk. They are also at odds with previous studies in other systems that documented significant effects of genetic diversity on population persistence. We speculate that the lack of sexual reproduction, or the phenotypic similarity among our experimental lines, might underlie the lack of a significant effect of genotype diversity in our study. PMID:23467276

Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steck, Claude E.; Pautasso, Marco

2008-11-01

Surprisingly, several studies over large scales have reported a positive spatial correlation of people and biodiversity. This pattern has important implications for conservation and has been documented for well studied taxa such as plants, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. However, it is unknown whether the pattern applies also to invertebrates other than butterflies and more work is needed to establish whether the species-people relationship is explained by both variables correlating with other environmental factors. We studied whether grasshopper species richness (Orthoptera, suborder Caelifera) is related to human population size in European countries. As expected, the number of Caelifera species increases significantly with increasing human population size. But this is not the case when controlling for country area, latitude and number of plant species. Variations in Caelifera species richness are primarily associated with variations in plant species richness. Caelifera species richness also increases with decreasing mean annual precipitation, Gross Domestic Product per capita (used as an indicator for economic development) and net fertility rate of the human population. Our analysis confirms the hypothesis that the broad-scale human population-biodiversity correlations can be explained by concurrent variations in factors other than human population size such as plant species richness, environmental productivity, or habitat heterogeneity. Nonetheless, more populated countries in Europe still have more Caelifera species than less populated countries and this poses a particular challenge for conservation.

Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader

PubMed Central

Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Methods Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. Key Results It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (QST) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F′ST), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. Conclusions The study suggests that although genetic variation may facilitate plant invasions by increasing seedling establishment, it may not necessarily affect the long-term population growth rate. Therefore, established invasions may be able to grow equally well regardless of their genetic diversity. PMID:26420202

High intraspecific variability in the functional niche of a predator is associated with ontogenetic shift and individual specialization

PubMed Central

Zhao, Tian; Villéger, Sébastien; Lek, Sovan; Cucherousset, Julien

2014-01-01

Investigations on the functional niche of organisms have primarily focused on differences among species and tended to neglect the potential effects of intraspecific variability despite the fact that its potential ecological and evolutionary importance is now widely recognized. In this study, we measured the distribution of functional traits in an entire population of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) to quantify the magnitude of intraspecific variability in functional traits and niche (size, position, and overlap) between age classes. Stable isotope analyses (δ13C and δ15N) were also used to determine the association between individual trophic ecology and intraspecific functional trait variability. We observed that functional traits were highly variable within the population (mean coefficient variation: 15.62% ± 1.78% SE) and predominantly different between age classes. In addition, functional and trophic niche overlap between age classes was extremely low. Differences in functional niche between age classes were associated with strong changes in trophic niche occurring during ontogeny while, within age classes, differences among individuals were likely driven by trophic specialization. Each age class filled only a small portion of the total functional niche of the population and age classes occupied distinct portions in the functional space, indicating the existence of ontogenetic specialists with different functional roles within the population. The high amplitude of intraspecific variability in functional traits and differences in functional niche position among individuals reported here supports the recent claims for an individual-based approach in functional ecology. PMID:25558359

Mate choice theory and the mode of selection in sexual populations.

PubMed

Carson, Hampton L

2003-05-27

Indirect new data imply that mate and/or gamete choice are major selective forces driving genetic change in sexual populations. The system dictates nonrandom mating, an evolutionary process requiring both revised genetic theory and new data on heritability of characters underlying Darwinian fitness. Successfully reproducing individuals represent rare selections from among vigorous, competing survivors of preadult natural selection. Nonrandom mating has correlated demographic effects: reduced effective population size, inbreeding, low gene flow, and emphasis on deme structure. Characters involved in choice behavior at reproduction appear based on quantitative trait loci. This variability serves selection for fitness within the population, having only an incidental relationship to the origin of genetically based reproductive isolation between populations. The claim that extensive hybridization experiments with Drosophila indicate that selection favors a gradual progression of "isolating mechanisms" is flawed, because intra-group random mating is assumed. Over deep time, local sexual populations are strong, independent genetic systems that use rich fields of variable polygenic components of fitness. The sexual reproduction system thus particularizes, in small subspecific populations, the genetic basis of the grand adaptive sweep of selective evolutionary change, much as Darwin proposed.

Group size of a permanent large group of agile mangabeys (Cercocebus agilis) at Bai Hokou, Central African Republic.

PubMed

Devreese, Lieven; Huynen, Marie-Claude; Stevens, Jeroen M G; Todd, Angelique

2013-01-01

White-eyelid mangabeys (genus Cercocebus) live in groups of highly variable size. Because of their semi-terrestrial behaviour and preference for dense forest habitats, re-liable data on group size are scarce. During a 5-month study, we collected 17 group counts on a habituated group of agile mangabeys (C. agilis) at Bai Hokou in the Central African Republic. We found a stable group size of approximately 135 individuals. This permanent large grouping pattern is known to occur among several populations of white-eyelid mangabeys and is congruent with extreme group sizes reported in mandrills at Lopé in Gabon. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Individual-based model of young-of-the-year striped bass population dynamics. II. Factors affecting recruitment in the Potomac River, Maryland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cowan, J.H.; Rose, K.A.; Rutherford, E.S.

1993-05-01

An individual-based model of the population dynamics of young-of-the-year striped bass Morone saxatilis in the Potomac River, Maryland, was used to test the hypothesis that historically high recruitment variability can be explained by changes in environmental and biological factors that result in relatively small changes in growth and mortality rates of striped bass larvae. The four factors examined were (1) size distribution of female parents, (2) zooplankton prey density during the development of striped bass larvae, (3) density of completing larval white perch M. americana, and (4) temperature during larval development. Simulation results suggest that variations in female size andmore » in prey for larvae alone could cause 10-fold variability in recruitment. But no single factor alone caused changes in vital rates of age-0 fish that could account for the 145-fold variability in the Potomac River index of juvenile recruitment. However, combined positive or negative effects of two or more factors resulted in more than a 150-fold simulated recruitment variability, suggesting that combinations of factors can account for the high observed annual variability in striped bass recruitment success. Higher cumulative mortality of feeding larvae and younger life stages than of juveniles was common to all simulations. supporting the contention that striped bass year-class strength is determined prior to metamorphosis. 76 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Genetic diversity and demography of two endangered captive pronghorn subspecies from the Sonoran Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klimova, Anastasia; Munguia-Vega, Adrian; Hoffman, Joseph I.; Culver, Melanie

2014-01-01

Species that have experienced population reduction provide valuable case studies for understanding genetic responses to demographic change. Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) were once widespread across the North American plains but were subject to drastic population reductions due to overexploitation and habitat fragmentation during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. A. a. peninsularis and A. a. sonoriensis, 2 pronghorn subspecies that inhabit the southern edge of the species' distribution, are almost extinct and now breed almost exclusively in captivity. We therefore sequenced the complete mitochondrial control region and genotyped 18 microsatellite loci in 109 individuals to evaluate the impact of population bottlenecks, captive breeding, small population sizes, and isolation on the genetic composition of captive populations of these 2 subspecies. We found extremely low levels of genetic diversity in both subspecies. The 2 subspecies showed high and significant genetic differentiation, indicating the absence of historic and recent gene flow despite their geographic proximity within the Sonoran Desert. Historical effective population size estimates for the 2 subspecies were inferred to be similar, whereas the Sonoran pronghorn has a contemporary effective size (Ne) more than twice as high as the Peninsular subspecies. Our findings suggest the need for careful genetic management of both subspecies in order to minimize the further loss of genetic variability.

The malleability of gender stereotypes: influence of population size on perceptions of men and women in the past, present, and future.

PubMed

Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Müller, Stephanie M; López-Zafra, Esther

2011-01-01

Recent studies on the malleability of gender stereotypes show that they are flexible, dynamic structures that change with the passage of time. In a study, we examined perceptions about men and women of the past, present, and future in Spain and focused on the influence of an important demographic variable on these perceptions: the population size of people's location of residence. Results showed that people perceived an increase in similarity of men and women from the past to the present and from the present to the future. In less-populated locations, however, men and women were more gender stereotyped and, consequently, still perceived to be further from equality than those in more populated areas. We concluded that the study of dynamic gender stereotypes benefits from extensive research in populations that vary in their demographic characteristics and shows the importance of recent movements in rural areas supporting women's participation in the modernization process.

Ohio River Environmental Assessment: Cultural Resources Reconnaissance Report, West Virginia.

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-08-01

that Paleo-Indian populations consisted of nomadic hunting bands that ranged over large territories. Population density in the project area appears to...Complex which is present in Ohio and filters sporadically to the floodplain (Prufer and Baby 1963) during this period appears to be absent in West Virignia...riverine and estuarine resources as well as hunting and gathering (Caldwell, 1958). Sites are variable in size and density with some indications of

Dynamics of change in local physician supply: an ecological perspective.

PubMed

Jiang, H Joanna; Begun, James W

2002-05-01

The purpose of this study is to employ an ecological framework to identify factors that have an impact on change in local physician supply within the USA. A particular specialty type of patient care physicians in a local market is defined as a physician population. Four physician populations are identified: generalists, medical specialists, surgical specialists, and hospital-based specialists. Based on population ecology theory, the proposed framework explains the growth of a particular physician population by four mechanisms: the intrinsic properties of this physician population; the local market's carrying capacity, which is determined by three environmental dimensions (munificence, concentration, diversity); competition within the same physician population; and interdependence between different physician populations. Data at the level of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) were compiled from the US Area Resources File, the American Hospital Association Annual Surveys of Hospitals, the American Medical Association Census of Medical Groups, the InterStudy National HMO Census, and the US County Business Patterns. Changes in the number and percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population from 1985 to 1994 were regressed, respectively, on 1985-94 changes in the explanatory variables as well as their levels in 1985. The results indicate that the population ecology framework is useful in explaining dynamics of change in the local physician workforce. Variables measuring the three environmental dimensions were found to have significant, and in some cases, differential effects on change in the size of different specialty populations. For example, both hospital consolidation and managed care penetration showed significant positive eflects on growth of the generalist population but suppressing effects on growth of the specialist population. The percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population in 1985 was negatively related to change in the size of that specialty population between 1985 and 1994, suggesting the existence of competition. Overall, the findings of this study facilitate a better understanding of the complexity of physician workforce supply.

Fish introductions in the former Soviet Union: The Sevan trout (Salmo ischchan) — 80 years later

PubMed Central

Bogdanowicz, Wiesław; Rutkowski, Robert; Gabrielyan, Bardukh K.; Ryspaev, Akylbek; Asatryan, Anzhela N.; Mkrtchyan, Jon A.; Bujalska, Barbara M.

2017-01-01

The Soviet Union played the leading role in fish introductions in Eurasia. However, only 3% of all introductions prior to 1978 gave a commercial benefit. One of the noteworthy examples appears to be the Sevan trout (Salmo ischchan Kessler, 1877)—an endemic salmonid of Lake Sevan in Armenia. This species has been introduced to Kirghizstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, however, only the Kirghiz population has persisted in relatively high numbers. In this paper we provide the first extensive molecular study of S. ischchan using samples from the native population from Lake Sevan and three hatcheries in Armenia, as well as from the population introduced to Lake Issyk Kul in Kirghizstan. The Kirghiz population has been isolated since the introductions took place in 1930 and 1936. Our results, based on 11 nuclear microsatellites and a 905 bp fragment of the mitochondrial control region suggest that hatcheries have maintained genetic variability by way of ongoing translocations of individuals from Lake Sevan. Simultaneously, significant Garza-Williamson M-values suggest that bottlenecks could have reduced the genetic variability of the wild populations in the past. This hypothesis is supported by historical data, indicating highly manipulated water-level regulations and poaching as two main factors that dramatically impact fish abundance in the lake. On the other hand, a similar situation has been observed in Kirghizstan, but this population likely rebounded from small population size faster than the other populations examined. The Kirghiz population is significantly genetically differentiated from the other groups and have morphological features and biological attributes not observed in the source population. Genetic data imply that the effective population size in the native population is lower than that found in the introduced population, suggesting that some active protection of the Lake Sevan population may be needed urgently. PMID:28683097

Surface facial modelling and allometry in relation to sexual dimorphism.

PubMed

Velemínská, J; Bigoni, L; Krajíček, V; Borský, J; Šmahelová, D; Cagáňová, V; Peterka, M

2012-04-01

Sexual dimorphism is responsible for a substantial part of human facial variability, the study of which is essential for many scientific fields ranging from evolution to special biomedical topics. Our aim was to analyse the relationship between size variability and shape facial variability of sexual traits in the young adult Central European population and to construct average surface models of adult males and females. The method of geometric morphometrics allowed not only the identification of dimorphic traits, but also the evaluation of static allometry and the visualisation of sexual facial differences. Facial variability in the studied sample was characterised by a strong relationship between facial size and shape of sexual dimorphic traits. Large size of face was associated with facial elongation and vice versa. Regarding shape sexual dimorphic traits, a wide, vaulted and high forehead in combination with a narrow and gracile lower face were typical for females. Variability in shape dimorphic traits was smaller in females compared to males. For female classification, shape sexual dimorphic traits are more important, while for males the stronger association is with face size. Males generally had a closer inter-orbital distance and a deeper position of the eyes in relation to the facial plane, a larger and wider straight nose and nostrils, and more massive lower face. Using pseudo-colour maps to provide a detailed schematic representation of the geometrical differences between the sexes, we attempted to clarify the reasons underlying the development of such differences. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Investigating the Variability in Cumulus Cloud Number as a Function of Subdomain Size and Organization using large-domain LES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neggers, R.

2017-12-01

Recent advances in supercomputing have introduced a "grey zone" in the representation of cumulus convection in general circulation models, in which this process is partially resolved. Cumulus parameterizations need to be made scale-aware and scale-adaptive to be able to conceptually and practically deal with this situation. A potential way forward are schemes formulated in terms of discretized Cloud Size Densities, or CSDs. Advantages include i) the introduction of scale-awareness at the foundation of the scheme, and ii) the possibility to apply size-filtering of parameterized convective transport and clouds. The CSD is a new variable that requires closure; this concerns its shape, its range, but also variability in cloud number that can appear due to i) subsampling effects and ii) organization in a cloud field. The goal of this study is to gain insight by means of sub-domain analyses of various large-domain LES realizations of cumulus cloud populations. For a series of three-dimensional snapshots, each with a different degree of organization, the cloud size distribution is calculated in all subdomains, for a range of subdomain sizes. The standard deviation of the number of clouds of a certain size is found to decrease with the subdomain size, following a powerlaw scaling corresponding to an inverse-linear dependence. Cloud number variability also increases with cloud size; this reflects that subsampling affects the largest clouds first, due to their typically larger neighbor spacing. Rewriting this dependence in terms of two dimensionless groups, by dividing by cloud number and cloud size respectively, yields a data collapse. Organization in the cloud field is found to act on top of this primary dependence, by enhancing the cloud number variability at the smaller sizes. This behavior reflects that small clouds start to "live" on top of larger structures such as cold pools, favoring or inhibiting their formation (as illustrated by the attached figure of cloud mask). Powerlaw scaling is still evident, but with a reduced exponent, suggesting that this behavior could be parameterized.

Ecology and shell chemistry of Loxoconcha matagordensis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Kamiya, T.; Dwyer, G.S.; Belkin, H.; Vann, C.D.; Schwede, S.; Wagner, R.

2005-01-01

Studies of the seasonal ecology and shell chemistry of the ostracode Loxoconcha matagordensis and related species of Loxoconcha from regions off eastern North America reveal that shell size and trace elemental (Mg/Ca ratio) composition are useful in paleothermometry using fossil populations. Seasonal sampling of populations from Chesapeake Bay, augmented by samples from Florida Bay, indicate that shell size is inversely proportional to water temperature and that Mg/Ca ratios are positively correlated with the water temperature in which the adult carapace was secreted. Microprobe analyses of sectioned valves reveal intra-shell variability in Mg/Ca ratios but this does not strongly influence the utility of whole shell Mg/Ca analyses for paleoclimate application.

Inferring the demographic history from DNA sequences: An importance sampling approach based on non-homogeneous processes.

PubMed

Ait Kaci Azzou, S; Larribe, F; Froda, S

2016-10-01

In Ait Kaci Azzou et al. (2015) we introduced an Importance Sampling (IS) approach for estimating the demographic history of a sample of DNA sequences, the skywis plot. More precisely, we proposed a new nonparametric estimate of a population size that changes over time. We showed on simulated data that the skywis plot can work well in typical situations where the effective population size does not undergo very steep changes. In this paper, we introduce an iterative procedure which extends the previous method and gives good estimates under such rapid variations. In the iterative calibrated skywis plot we approximate the effective population size by a piecewise constant function, whose values are re-estimated at each step. These piecewise constant functions are used to generate the waiting times of non homogeneous Poisson processes related to a coalescent process with mutation under a variable population size model. Moreover, the present IS procedure is based on a modified version of the Stephens and Donnelly (2000) proposal distribution. Finally, we apply the iterative calibrated skywis plot method to a simulated data set from a rapidly expanding exponential model, and we show that the method based on this new IS strategy correctly reconstructs the demographic history. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Particle Size Distributions in Atmospheric Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paoli, Roberto; Shariff, Karim

2003-01-01

In this note, we derive a transport equation for a spatially integrated distribution function of particles size that is suitable for sparse particle systems, such as in atmospheric clouds. This is done by integrating a Boltzmann equation for a (local) distribution function over an arbitrary but finite volume. A methodology for evolving the moments of the integrated distribution is presented. These moments can be either tracked for a finite number of discrete populations ('clusters') or treated as continuum variables.

Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

2001-01-01

Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

Long-term herbarium data reveal the decline of a temperate-water algae at its southern range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riera, Rodrigo; Sangil, Carlos; Sansón, Marta

2015-11-01

Distributional shifts of marine species have recently received attention as a result of increasing man-induced pressures on coastal ecosystems and global climate change (i.e. ocean warming). The southernmost geographical limit of the fucoid Fucus guiryi is the Canarian archipelago (Northeastern Atlantic Ocean) where this species is currently forming scarce and low-dense populations. Studies on long-term herbarium data revealed the decrease in size of morphological features (length and width of thallus and receptacles), and recent surveys confirmed the sharp decline, or even extinction, of F. guiryi from most sites previously documented. The increase of mean seawater surface temperature consistently matches the regression of populations of F. guiryi. Other environmental variables, such as wave exposure, cloud cover and chlorophyll-a concentration, contributed to explain local-scale spatial variability detected in Canarian populations.

The implications of variable remigration intervals for the assessment of population size in marine turtles.

PubMed

Hays, G C

2000-09-21

Sea turtles nest on sandy beaches and tend to show high fidelity to specific nesting areas, but, despite this fidelity, the inter-annual variation in nesting numbers may be large. This variation may reflect the fact that turtles do not usually nest in consecutive years. Here, theoretical models are developed in which the interval between successive nesting years (the remigration interval) reflects conditions encountered on the feeding grounds, with good feeding years leading to a reduction in the remigration interval and vice versa. These simple models produce high levels of inter-annual variation in nesting numbers with, on occasion, almost no turtles nesting in some years even when the population is large and stable. The implications for assessing the size of sea turtle populations are considered. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Reduction of a metapopulation genetic model to an effective one-island model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parra-Rojas, César; McKane, Alan J.

2018-04-01

We explore a model of metapopulation genetics which is based on a more ecologically motivated approach than is frequently used in population genetics. The size of the population is regulated by competition between individuals, rather than by artificially imposing a fixed population size. The increased complexity of the model is managed by employing techniques often used in the physical sciences, namely exploiting time-scale separation to eliminate fast variables and then constructing an effective model from the slow modes. We analyse this effective model and show that the predictions for the probability of fixation of the alleles and the mean time to fixation agree well with those found from numerical simulations of the original model. Contribution to the Focus Issue Evolutionary Modeling and Experimental Evolution edited by José Cuesta, Joachim Krug and Susanna Manrubia.

Krill population dynamics in the Scotia Sea: variability in growth and mortality within a single population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, K.; Murphy, E. J.; Loeb, V.; Hewitt, R. P.

2002-07-01

Understanding the demographics of Antarctic krill over large scales may be complicated by regional differences in the processes that govern population structure. The influence of regional differences in growth and mortality on population size structure was examined using data on the length-frequency distribution of krill in the Scotia Sea using samples from the South Shetland Islands and South Georgia collected annually from 1991 to 2000. A correction function, which took account of the higher growth rate at South Georgia, produced a consistent similarity in the position of the modal size classes that was not present in the raw data. Optimising the mortality rate, to minimise the differences in the growth corrected length-frequency distribution, suggested a higher mortality rate at South Georgia that the South Shetlands. The intra-specific variations in growth and mortality rates are consistent with published values and with other Euphausiids species. Having accounted for the demographic plasticity, it is apparent that strong recruitment of the smallest size class of krill is represented in both populations simultaneously. It appears that first-year krill are advected into different regions of the Scotia Sea where the resultant population size structure is determined by regional differences in growth and mortality. The majority of the commercial harvest of krill in the Antarctic occurs in a relatively small number of regional fisheries within the Scotia Sea and is managed using population models based on a single set of demographic parameters. Where substantial differences in these parameters exist between fishing areas, the calculation of catch limits should take these differences into account.

Natural variation of fecundity components in a widespread plant with dimorphic seeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braza, Rita; Arroyo, J.; García, M. B.

2010-09-01

The number and size of seeds are the basis of the quantity and quality components of female reproductive fitness in plants, playing a central role in the evolutionary ecology of life history diversification. In this study we show and analyze the natural variability of several fecundity variables (fruit set, seed production per fruit, seed size, total seed production per plant, and proportion of small seeds) in Plantago coronopus, a widespread, short-lived herb with dimorphic seeds. The structure of such variability was examined at the individual, population (eight locations with different environments within the same region), and life history levels (annual vs perennial), and correlated to soil fertility. There was no divergence associated to the life history for any of the variables studied. Total seed production (the quantity component of female fitness) was correlated with maternal resources, while the size of the large mucilaginous, basal seeds, and the proportion of the small apical seeds (quality component) were more associated to environmental resources. Thus, internal and external resources shape different fitness components, maximizing seed production, and fitting the size and proportion of different kind of seeds to local conditions irrespective of life history. P. coronopus illustrates the versatility of short-lived widespread plants to combine fecundity traits in a flexible manner, in order to increase fitness at each of the many possible habitats they occupy over heterogeneous environments.

General Economic and Demographic Background and Projections for Indiana Library Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foust, James D.; Tower, Carl B.

Before future library needs can be estimated, economic and demographic variables that influence the demand for library services must be projected and estimating equations relating library needs to economic and demographic parameters developed. This study considers the size, location and age-sex characteristics of Indiana's current population and…

Diet and gut morphology of male mallards during winter in North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, R.E.; Cox, R.R.; Afton, A.D.; Ankney, C.D.

2011-01-01

A free-ranging Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population was investigated during winter (December-January 1996-1999) below the Garrison Dam, North Dakota, USA, to relate diet to gut morphology variation in males. Four explanatory variables (fish consumption, male age, winter, and body size) were evaluated as to whether they influenced five response variables associated with gut characteristics of Mallards. Response variables were lower gastro-intestinal tract mass (LGIT), dry liver mass, dry gizzard mass, small intestine length, and ceca length. Diets of Mallards were comprised primarily of Rainbow Smelt (Osmerus mordax) and concomitantly variation in gizzard mass was small. LGIT mass of juveniles was larger than that of adults, greater for those that consumed fish, and greater during the coldest and snowiest winter. Liver mass and small intestine length of Mallards that consumed fish were greater than those that did not. Mallards may maintain lengthy intestines to increase digestive efficiency. Gut size variation was not entirely attributable to dietary composition but also influenced by body size and environmental conditions such that over-winter survival is maximized.

Determinants of birth interval in a rural Mediterranean population (La Alpujarra, Spain).

PubMed

Polo, V; Luna, F; Fuster, V

2000-10-01

The fertility pattern, in terms of birth intervals, in a rural population not practicing contraception belonging to La Alta Alpujarra Oriental (southeast Spain) is analyzed. During the first half of the 20th century, this population experienced a considerable degree of geographical and cultural isolation. Because of this population's high variability in fertility and therefore in birth intervals, the analysis was limited to a homogenous subsample of 154 families, each with at least five pregnancies. This limitation allowed us to analyze, among and within families, effects of a set of variables on the interbirth pattern, and to avoid possible problems of pseudoreplication. Information on birth date of the mother, age at marriage, children's birth date and death date, birth order, and frequency of miscarriages was collected. Our results indicate that interbirth intervals depend on an exponential effect of maternal age, especially significant after the age of 35. This effect is probably related to the biological degenerative processes of female fertility with age. A linear increase of birth intervals with birth order within families was found as well as a reduction of intervals among families experiencing an infant death. Our sample size was insufficient to detect a possible replacement behavior in the case of infant death. High natality and mortality rates, a secular decrease of natality rates, a log-normal birth interval, and family-size distributions suggest that La Alpujarra has been a natural fertility population following a demographic transition process.

Life-history variability of non-native centrarchids in regulated river systems of the lower River Guadiana drainage (south-west Iberian Peninsula).

PubMed

Ribeiro, F; Collares-Pereira, M J

2010-02-01

Life-history variability of two non-native centrarchids, pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus and largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides, was evaluated in three stream stretches of the lower River Guadiana drainage (south-west Iberian Peninsula) with different degrees of regulated flows. Abundance, condition and population structure differed among populations for both species, but invasion success was lower in the least regulated river. Lepomis gibbosus were abundant and had multiple age classes in the three river sites, whereas M. salmoides were less abundant and mainly represented by young-of-the-year fish. Juvenile growth in L. gibbosus was similar in all three populations, though longevity was slightly greater in the population from the River Guadiana mainstream. Lepomis gibbosus exhibited a long reproductive season, but the duration of season, size at maturity and reproductive effort varied among populations. The life-history differences found demonstrate the importance of species adaptation to local conditions which might favour their invasion success. Lepomis gibbosus were more adaptable and resilient to local conditions, whereas M. salmoides seemed dependent on reservoirs and large rivers for maintenance of riverine populations.

Early signs of recovery of Acropora palmata in St. John, US Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muller, E.M.; Rogers, Caroline S.; van Woesik, R.

2014-01-01

Since the 1980s, diseases have caused significant declines in the population of the threatened Caribbean coral Acropora palmata. Yet it is largely unknown whether the population densities have recovered from these declines and whether there have been any recent shifts in size-frequency distributions toward large colonies. It is also unknown whether colony size influences the risk of disease infection, the most common stressor affecting this species. To address these unknowns, we examined A. palmata colonies at ten sites around St. John, US Virgin Islands, in 2004 and 2010. The prevalence of white-pox disease was highly variable among sites, ranging from 0 to 53 %, and this disease preferentially targeted large colonies. We found that colony density did not significantly change over the 6-year period, although six out of ten sites showed higher densities through time. The size-frequency distributions of coral colonies at all sites were positively skewed in both 2004 and 2010, however, most sites showed a temporal shift toward more large-sized colonies. This increase in large-sized colonies occurred despite the presence of white-pox disease, a severe bleaching event, and several storms. This study provides evidence of slow recovery of the A. palmata population around St. John despite the persistence of several stressors.

Early Life Conditions and Physiological Stress following the Transition to Farming in Central/Southeast Europe: Skeletal Growth Impairment and 6000 Years of Gradual Recovery

PubMed Central

Macintosh, Alison A.; Pinhasi, Ron; Stock, Jay T.

2016-01-01

Early life conditions play an important role in determining adult body size. In particular, childhood malnutrition and disease can elicit growth delays and affect adult body size if severe or prolonged enough. In the earliest stages of farming, skeletal growth impairment and small adult body size are often documented relative to hunter-gatherer groups, though this pattern is regionally variable. In Central/Southeast Europe, it is unclear how early life stress, growth history, and adult body size were impacted by the introduction of agriculture and ensuing long-term demographic, social, and behavioral change. The current study assesses this impact through the reconstruction and analysis of mean stature, body mass, limb proportion indices, and sexual dimorphism among 407 skeletally mature men and women from foraging and farming populations spanning the Late Mesolithic through Early Medieval periods in Central/Southeast Europe (~7100 calBC to 850 AD). Results document significantly reduced mean stature, body mass, and crural index in Neolithic agriculturalists relative both to Late Mesolithic hunter-gatherer-fishers and to later farming populations. This indication of relative growth impairment in the Neolithic, particularly among women, is supported by existing evidence of high developmental stress, intensive physical activity, and variable access to animal protein in these early agricultural populations. Among subsequent agriculturalists, temporal increases in mean stature, body mass, and crural index were more pronounced among Central European women, driving declines in the magnitude of sexual dimorphism through time. Overall, results suggest that the transition to agriculture in Central/Southeast Europe was challenging for early farming populations, but was followed by gradual amelioration across thousands of years, particularly among Central European women. This sex difference may be indicative, in part, of greater temporal variation in the social status afforded to young girls, in their access to resources during growth, and/or in their health status than was experienced by men. PMID:26844892

Contrasting effects of climate on juvenile body size in a Southern Hemisphere passerine bird.

PubMed

Kruuk, Loeske E B; Osmond, Helen L; Cockburn, Andrew

2015-08-01

Despite extensive research on the topic, it has been difficult to reach general conclusions as to the effects of climate change on morphology in wild animals: in particular, the effects of warming temperatures have been associated with increases, decreases or stasis in body size in different populations. Here, we use a fine-scale analysis of associations between weather and offspring body size in a long-term study of a wild passerine bird, the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren, in south-eastern Australia to show that such variation in the direction of associations occurs even within a population. Over the past 26 years, our study population has experienced increased temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves and reduced rainfall - but the mean body mass of chicks has not changed. Despite the apparent stasis, mass was associated with weather across the previous year, but in multiple counteracting ways. Firstly, (i) chick mass was negatively associated with extremely recent heatwaves, but there also positive associations with (ii) higher maximum temperatures and (iii) higher rainfall, both occurring in a period prior to and during the nesting period, and finally (iv) a longer-term negative association with higher maximum temperatures following the previous breeding season. Our results illustrate how a morphological trait may be affected by both short- and long-term effects of the same weather variable at multiple times of the year and that these effects may act in different directions. We also show that climate within the relevant time windows may not be changing in the same way, such that overall long-term temporal trends in body size may be minimal. Such complexity means that analytical approaches that search for a single 'best' window for one particular weather variable may miss other relevant information, and is also likely to make analyses of phenotypic plasticity and prediction of longer-term population dynamics difficult. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Indian Craniometric Variability and Affinities

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Pathmanathan; Bulbeck, David; Pathmanathan, Gayathiri; Rathee, Suresh Kanta

2013-01-01

Recently published craniometric and genetic studies indicate a predominantly indigenous ancestry of Indian populations. We address this issue with a fuller coverage of Indian craniometrics than any done before. We analyse metrical variability within Indian series, Indians' sexual dimorphism, differences between northern and southern Indians, index-based differences of Indian males from other series, and Indians' multivariate affinities. The relationship between a variable's magnitude and its variability is log-linear. This relationship is strengthened by excluding cranial fractions and series with a sample size less than 30. Male crania are typically larger than female crania, but there are also shape differences. Northern Indians differ from southern Indians in various features including narrower orbits and less pronounced medial protrusion of the orbits. Indians resemble Veddas in having small crania and similar cranial shape. Indians' wider geographic affinities lie with “Caucasoid” populations to the northwest, particularly affecting northern Indians. The latter finding is confirmed from shape-based Mahalanobis-D distances calculated for the best sampled male and female series. Demonstration of a distinctive South Asian craniometric profile and the intermediate status of northern Indians between southern Indians and populations northwest of India confirm the predominantly indigenous ancestry of northern and especially southern Indians. PMID:24455409

An exploratory analysis on how geographic, socioeconomic, and environmental drivers affect the diversity of livestock breeds worldwide.

PubMed

Leroy, G; Boettcher, P; Hoffmann, I; Mottet, A; Teillard, F; Baumung, R

2016-12-01

This study investigates the relationships between various environmental and geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors with the diversity of livestock breeds reported within countries across the world. Statistical analyses were performed considering the numbers of breeds reported by 158 countries for 4 livestock mammalian species (cattle, sheep, goats, and pigs). Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries reported more breeds than non-OECD countries in general. Strong and positive correlations were found between agricultural area, human population size, species population size, and number of breeds per country. When considering regression models, the species population size was found as the most important explanatory factor for the number of breeds reported by countries in the 4 species. Diversity of production systems in the country had a significant association with the number of breeds reported for sheep, goats, and pigs. The number of ruminant breeds was positively associated with the size of agricultural area and the diversity of land cover in the country. While demographic and cultural importance of a given species is a major factor associated with the number of livestock breeds within countries, this diversity is also connected to the variability in environmental and production conditions.

Effects of paternal phenotype and environmental variability on age and size at maturity in a male dimorphic mite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallegange, Isabel M.

2011-04-01

Investigating how the environment affects age and size at maturity of individuals is crucial to understanding how changes in the environment affect population dynamics through the biology of a species. Paternal phenotype, maternal, and offspring environment may crucially influence these traits, but to my knowledge, their combined effects have not yet been tested. Here, I found that in bulb mites ( Rhizoglyphus robini), maternal nutrition, offspring nutrition, and paternal phenotype (males are fighters, able to kill other mites, or benign scramblers) interactively affected offspring age and size at maturity. The largest effect occurred when both maternal and offspring nutrition was poor: in that case offspring from fighter sires required a significantly longer development time than offspring from scrambler sires. Investigating parental effects on the relationship between age and size at maturity revealed no paternal effects, and only for females was its shape influenced by maternal nutrition. Overall, this reaction norm was nonlinear. These non-genetic intergenerational effects may play a complex, yet unexplored role in influencing population fluctuations—possibly explaining why results from field studies often do not match theoretical predictions on maternal effects on population dynamics.

FITPOP, a heuristic simulation model of population dynamics and genetics with special reference to fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.

2000-01-01

Although, perceiving genetic differences and their effects on fish population dynamics is difficult, simulation models offer a means to explore and illustrate these effects. I partitioned the intrinsic rate of increase parameter of a simple logistic-competition model into three components, allowing specification of effects of relative differences in fitness and mortality, as well as finite rate of increase. This model was placed into an interactive, stochastic environment to allow easy manipulation of model parameters (FITPOP). Simulation results illustrated the effects of subtle differences in genetic and population parameters on total population size, overall fitness, and sensitivity of the system to variability. Several consequences of mixing genetically distinct populations were illustrated. For example, behaviors such as depression of population size after initial introgression and extirpation of native stocks due to continuous stocking of genetically inferior fish were reproduced. It also was shown that carrying capacity relative to the amount of stocking had an important influence on population dynamics. Uncertainty associated with parameter estimates reduced confidence in model projections. The FITPOP model provided a simple tool to explore population dynamics, which may assist in formulating management strategies and identifying research needs.

Population survey and management strategies of free-roaming dogs (Canis familiaris) on Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

PubMed

Nimer, Adrianna; Meneses, Nashelly; Watson, Zachary D; Shuster, Stephen M; Benford, Russell

2018-01-01

The island of Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, is populated by free-roaming dogs who were introduced during World War II. The local nonhuman animal control agency manages this population; however, the demographic information and public perception of this population remain unknown. To characterize the free-roaming dog population, an island-wide survey on Saipan was conducted. Photographic, mark-recapture data were used to estimate the population size per land type. Age, sex, sociality, and behavior per land type were documented and associations between these variables were tested using G tests. The effects of land type and urbanization on dog abundance were also analyzed. Lastly, in-person surveys provided data on the public perception of free-roaming dogs. Four main findings are reported: (a) The population size of free-roaming dogs on Saipan is estimated at 21,316. (b) Most dogs encountered were sentry adults. (c) Dog abundance increased with urbanization level and was highest in urban areas. (d) The public perceived free-roaming dogs as a health concern and suggested the implementation of leash laws and sheltering initiatives. This article discusses potential and existing population management strategies for free-roaming dogs on Saipan.

Ecological drivers of group living in two populations of the communally rearing rodent, Octodon degus

PubMed Central

Sobrero, Raúl; Quirici, Verónica; Castro, Rodrigo A.; Tolhuysen, Liliana Ortiz; Vargas, Francisco; Burger, Joseph Robert; Quispe, René; Villavicencio, Camila P.; Vásquez, Rodrigo A.; Hayes, Loren D.

2012-01-01

Intraspecific variation in sociality is thought to reflect a trade-off between current fitness benefits and costs that emerge from individuals' decision to join or leave groups. Since those benefits and costs may be influenced by ecological conditions, ecological variation remains a major, ultimate cause of intraspecific variation in sociality. Intraspecific comparisons of mammalian sociality across populations facing different environmental conditions have not provided a consistent relationship between ecological variation and group-living. Thus, we studied two populations of the communally rearing rodent Octodon degus to determine how co-variation between sociality and ecology supports alternative ecological causes of group living. In particular, we examined how variables linked to predation risk, thermal conditions, burrowing costs, and food availability predicted temporal and population variation in sociality. Our study revealed population and temporal variation in total group size and group composition that covaried with population and yearly differences in ecology. In particular, predation risk and burrowing costs are supported as drivers of this social variation in degus. Thermal differences, food quantity and quality were not significant predictors of social group size. In contrast to between populations, social variation within populations was largely uncoupled from ecological differences. PMID:22344477

Environmental, biological and anthropogenic effects on grizzly bear body size: temporal and spatial considerations.

PubMed

Nielsen, Scott E; Cattet, Marc R L; Boulanger, John; Cranston, Jerome; McDermid, Greg J; Shafer, Aaron B A; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2013-09-08

Individual body growth is controlled in large part by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of, and competition for, resources. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos L.) are an excellent species for studying the effects of resource heterogeneity and maternal effects (i.e. silver spoon) on life history traits such as body size because their habitats are highly variable in space and time. Here, we evaluated influences on body size of grizzly bears in Alberta, Canada by testing six factors that accounted for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environments during maternal, natal and 'capture' (recent) environments. After accounting for intrinsic biological factors (age, sex), we examined how body size, measured in mass, length and body condition, was influenced by: (a) population density; (b) regional habitat productivity; (c) inter-annual variability in productivity (including silver spoon effects); (d) local habitat quality; (e) human footprint (disturbances); and (f) landscape change. We found sex and age explained the most variance in body mass, condition and length (R(2) from 0.48-0.64). Inter-annual variability in climate the year before and of birth (silver spoon effects) had detectable effects on the three-body size metrics (R(2) from 0.04-0.07); both maternal (year before birth) and natal (year of birth) effects of precipitation and temperature were related with body size. Local heterogeneity in habitat quality also explained variance in body mass and condition (R(2) from 0.01-0.08), while annual rate of landscape change explained additional variance in body length (R(2) of 0.03). Human footprint and population density had no observed effect on body size. These results illustrated that body size patterns of grizzly bears, while largely affected by basic biological characteristics (age and sex), were also influenced by regional environmental gradients the year before, and of, the individual's birth thus illustrating silver spoon effects. The magnitude of the silver spoon effects was on par with the influence of contemporary regional habitat productivity, which showed that both temporal and spatial influences explain in part body size patterns in grizzly bears. Because smaller bears were found in colder and less-productive environments, we hypothesize that warming global temperatures may positively affect body mass of interior bears.

Body Size Evolution in Insular Speckled Rattlesnakes (Viperidae: Crotalus mitchellii)

PubMed Central

Meik, Jesse M.; Lawing, A. Michelle; Pires-daSilva, André

2010-01-01

Background Speckled rattlesnakes (Crotalus mitchellii) inhabit multiple islands off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Two of the 14 known insular populations have been recognized as subspecies based primarily on body size divergence from putative mainland ancestral populations; however, a survey of body size variation from other islands occupied by these snakes has not been previously reported. We examined body size variation between island and mainland speckled rattlesnakes, and the relationship between body size and various island physical variables among 12 island populations. We also examined relative head size among giant, dwarfed, and mainland speckled rattlesnakes to determine whether allometric differences conformed to predictions of gape size (and indirectly body size) evolving in response to shifts in prey size. Methodology/Principal Findings Insular speckled rattlesnakes show considerable variation in body size when compared to mainland source subspecies. In addition to previously known instances of gigantism on Ángel de la Guarda and dwarfism on El Muerto, various degrees of body size decrease have occurred frequently in this taxon, with dwarfed rattlesnakes occurring mostly on small, recently isolated, land-bridge islands. Regression models using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) showed that mean SVL of insular populations was most strongly correlated with island area, suggesting the influence of selection for different body size optima for islands of different size. Allometric differences in head size of giant and dwarf rattlesnakes revealed patterns consistent with shifts to larger and smaller prey, respectively. Conclusions/Significance Our data provide the first example of a clear relationship between body size and island area in a squamate reptile species; among vertebrates this pattern has been previously documented in few insular mammals. This finding suggests that selection for body size is influenced by changes in community dynamics that are related to graded differences in area over what are otherwise similar bioclimatic conditions. We hypothesize that in this system shifts to larger prey, episodic saturation and depression of primary prey density, and predator release may have led to insular gigantism, and that shifts to smaller prey and increased reproductive efficiency in the presence of intense intraspecific competition may have led to insular dwarfism. PMID:20209105

A New Population Estimate for the Florida Scrub Jay on Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David R.

1989-01-01

The variable circular plot method was used to sample avifauna within different vegetation types determined from aerial imagery. The Florida Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens coerulescens) population was estimated to range between 1,415 and 3,603 birds. Approximately half of the scrub and slash pine habitat appeared to be unused by Florida Scrub Jay, probably because the slash pine cover was too dense or the oak cover was too sparse. Results from the study suggest that the entire state population may be much lower than believed because the size of two of the three largest populations may have been overestimated.

Bayesian Inference on the Effect of Density Dependence and Weather on a Guanaco Population from Chile

PubMed Central

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation. PMID:25514510

Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile.

PubMed

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.

Non-lethal sampling of walleye for stable isotope analysis: a comparison of three tissues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chipps, Steven R.; VanDeHey, J.A.; Fincel, M.J.

2012-01-01

Stable isotope analysis of fishes is often performed using muscle or organ tissues that require sacrificing animals. Non-lethal sampling provides an alternative for evaluating isotopic composition for species of concern or individuals of exceptional value. Stable isotope values of white muscle (lethal) were compared with those from fins and scales (non-lethal) in walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill), from multiple systems, size classes and across a range of isotopic values. Isotopic variability was also compared among populations to determine the potential of non-lethal tissues for diet-variability analyses. Muscle-derived isotope values were enriched compared with fins and depleted relative to scales. A split-sample validation technique and linear regression found that isotopic composition of walleye fins and scales was significantly related to that in muscle tissue for both δ13C and δ15N (r2 = 0.79–0.93). However, isotopic variability was significantly different between tissue types in two of six populations for δ15N and three of six populations for δ13C. Although species and population specific, these findings indicate that isotopic measures obtained from non-lethal tissues are indicative of those obtained from muscle.

Accounting for randomness in measurement and sampling in studying cancer cell population dynamics.

PubMed

Ghavami, Siavash; Wolkenhauer, Olaf; Lahouti, Farshad; Ullah, Mukhtar; Linnebacher, Michael

2014-10-01

Knowing the expected temporal evolution of the proportion of different cell types in sample tissues gives an indication about the progression of the disease and its possible response to drugs. Such systems have been modelled using Markov processes. We here consider an experimentally realistic scenario in which transition probabilities are estimated from noisy cell population size measurements. Using aggregated data of FACS measurements, we develop MMSE and ML estimators and formulate two problems to find the minimum number of required samples and measurements to guarantee the accuracy of predicted population sizes. Our numerical results show that the convergence mechanism of transition probabilities and steady states differ widely from the real values if one uses the standard deterministic approach for noisy measurements. This provides support for our argument that for the analysis of FACS data one should consider the observed state as a random variable. The second problem we address is about the consequences of estimating the probability of a cell being in a particular state from measurements of small population of cells. We show how the uncertainty arising from small sample sizes can be captured by a distribution for the state probability.

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Olson, Lucretia E; Blumstein, Daniel T; Armitage, Kenneth B

2007-11-01

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive rates is a common phenomenon in many wildlife populations, but the population dynamic consequences of spatial and temporal variability in different components of reproduction remain poorly understood. We used 43 years (1962-2004) of data from 17 locations and a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling framework to investigate the spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), and its influence on the realized population growth rate. Specifically, we estimated and modeled breeding probabilities of two-year-old females (earliest age of first reproduction), >2-year-old females that have not reproduced before (subadults), and >2-year-old females that have reproduced before (adults), as well as the litter sizes of two-year old and >2-year-old females. Most reproductive parameters exhibited spatial and/or temporal variation. However, reproductive parameters differed with respect to their relative influence on the realized population growth rate (lambda). Litter size had a stronger influence than did breeding probabilities on both spatial and temporal variations in lambda. Our analysis indicated that lambda was proportionately more sensitive to survival than recruitment. However, the annual fluctuation in litter size, abetted by the breeding probabilities, accounted for most of the temporal variation in lambda.

Population structure of Uncancylus concentricus (d'Orbigny, 1835) (Ancylidae, Pulmonata, Basommatophora) in the Multiple Use Reserve Martín García Island, Upper Río de la Plata, Argentina.

PubMed

Martín, S M; Díaz, A C

2012-02-01

The present work analyzes the population dynamics of Uncancylus concentricus in natural conditions in the northeastern coastal area of the Multiple Use Natural Reserve Isla Martín García (Beach of Basural), Buenos Aires, Argentina. Martín García Island is located in the Upper Río de La Plata, to the south of the mouth of the Uruguay River (34° 11' 25" S and 58° 15'38" W). Monthly collections were made from August 2005 to December 2006. The size frequency of the U. concentricus population throughout the sampling period ranges from 1.2 to 8.3 m. The changes in the size frequencies throughout the months surveyed indicate a variable distribution pattern because of the increase and decrease in water flow, but we observed a peak in the frequency of individuals within the size range 3.5 to 4.5 mm in the population. It can be concluded that this species lives for at least a year in the wild since the juveniles are highly abundant in spring and summer.

Implications of nonadventitious rhizome spread on reproduction, inbreeding, and conservation for a rare grassland legume.

PubMed

Severns, Paul M; Liston, Aaron; Wilson, Mark V

2011-01-01

Small population size, genetic diversity, and spatial patterns of vegetative spread are important aspects to consider when managing populations of rare clonal plant species. We used 5 variable nuclear simple sequence repeat nDNA loci to determine the extent of genet rhizome spread, examine the possibility of very small population sizes, and project how Bombus spp. (bumblebee) foraging may impact selfing (through geitonogamy) for a threatened lupine (Lupinus oreganus Heller) that sprawls through nonadventitious rhizomes. Genotyping identified 1 genet (27 × 13 m) that dominated about 30% of a study site, whereas 15 genets spread a maximum average distance of about 5.5 m (range 1.6 -27.1 m) and appeared to be well integrated with intervening genets. We found unexpectedly high genotype diversity, no evidence of a recent genetic bottleneck, and 5 of 6 patches had mean fixation index values that were near Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium expectations. If the median maximum Bombus foraging distance observed in lupine patches (1.2 m) occurred within genotyped populations, a typical foraging flight would have >80% chance of occurring between different genets. Our study demonstrates that inferences associated with clonality, small population size, and inbreeding depression should be directly evaluated for rare vegetatively spreading plants.

[Variability of nuclear 18S-25S rDNA of Gentiana lutea L. in nature and in tissue culture in vitro].

PubMed

Mel'nyk, V M; Spiridonova, K V; Andrieiev, I O; Strashniuk, N M; Kunakh, V A

2004-01-01

18S-25S rDNA sequence in genomes of G. lutea plants from different natural populations and from tissue culture has been studied with blot-hybridization method. It was shown that ribosomal repeats are represented by the variants which differ for their size and for the presence of additional HindIII restriction site. Genome of individual plant usually possesses several variants of DNA repeats. Interpopulation variability according to their quantitative ratio and to the presence of some of them has been shown. Modifications of the range of rDNA repeats not exceeding intraspecific variability were observed in callus tissues in comparison with the plants of initial population. Non-randomness of genome modifications in the course of cell adaptation to in vitro conditions makes it possible to some extent to forecast these modifications in tissue culture.

Do less populous countries receive more development assistance for health per capita? Longitudinal evidence for 143 countries, 1990-2014.

PubMed

Martinsen, Lene; Ottersen, Trygve; Dieleman, Joseph L; Hessel, Philipp; Kinge, Jonas Minet; Skirbekk, Vegard

2018-01-01

Per capita allocation of overall development assistance has been shown to be biased towards countries with lower population size, meaning funders tend to provide proportionally less development assistance to countries with large populations. Individuals that happen to be part of large populations therefore tend to receive less assistance. However, no study has investigated whether this is also true regarding development assistance for health. We examined whether this so-called 'small-country bias' exists in the health aid sector. We analysed the effect of a country's population size on the receipt of development assistance for health per capita (in 2015 US$) among 143 countries over the period 1990-2014. Explanatory variables shown to be associated with receipt of development assistance for health were included: gross domestic product per capita, burden of disease, under-5 mortality rate, maternal mortality ratio, vaccination coverage (diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis) and fertility rate. We used the within-between regression analysis, popularised by Mundluck, as well as a number of robustness tests, including ordinary least squares, random-effects and fixed-effects regressions. Our results suggest there exists significant negative effect of population size on the amount of development assistance for health per capita countries received. According to the within-between estimator, a 1% larger population size is associated with a 0.4% lower per capita development assistance for health between countries (-0.37, 95% CI -0.45 to -0.28), and 2.3% lower per capita development assistance for health within countries (-2.29, 95% CI -3.86 to -0.72). Our findings support the hypothesis that small-country bias exists within international health aid, as has been previously documented for aid in general. In a rapidly changing landscape of global health and development, the inclusion of population size in allocation decisions should be challenged on the basis of equitable access to healthcare and health aid effectiveness.

Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of Varronia curassavica: A Medicinal Polyploid Species in a Threatened Ecosystem.

PubMed

Hoeltgebaum, Marcia Patricia; Dos Reis, Maurício Sedrez

2017-06-01

Varronia curassavica is an important medicinal species associated with the restinga, one of the most threatened coastal ecosystems of the Atlantic Forest. These circumstances call for studies aimed at estimating effective population size and gene flow to improve conservation efforts. Hence, the present study aimed to characterize the genetic diversity, ploidy level, and population structure of this species in different areas of restinga using microsatellites. Varronia curassavica was characterized as an autotetraploid, with high genetic variability, low divergence, and no significant fixation indices, indicating the absence of, or reduced, inbreeding and genetic drift in the study area. About 44% of the alleles occurred at low frequency in adults of all populations and 41% in the progenies evaluated. Gene flow was high, consistent with outcrossing species with high dispersal capacity (Nm = 4.87). The results showed no tendency toward isolation by distance. The estimated effective size indicates that the populations studied have the potential to ensure conservation of the species in the long term. The genetic variability and population structure of V. curassavica, as determined in this study, could form the foundation for activities directed toward the sustainable use of this resource and its conservation. Even though the restinga ecosystem has suffered dramatic reductions in area, this study provides evidence that this species is resilient to anthropogenic threats to its genetic integrity, since it is a polyploid with self-incompatibility mechanisms that contribute to maintaining high genetic diversity in an panmictic meta-population along the coast of Santa Catarina. © The American Genetic Association 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[Experimental analysis of some determinants of inductive reasoning].

PubMed

Ono, K

1989-02-01

Three experiments were conducted from a behavioral perspective to investigate the determinants of inductive reasoning and to compare some methodological differences. The dependent variable used in these experiments was the threshold of confident response (TCR), which was defined as "the minimal sample size required to establish generalization from instances." Experiment 1 examined the effects of population size on inductive reasoning, and the results from 35 college students showed that the TCR varied in proportion to the logarithm of population size. In Experiment 2, 30 subjects showed distinct sensitivity to both prior probability and base-rate. The results from 70 subjects who participated in Experiment 3 showed that the TCR was affected by its consequences (risk condition), and especially, that humans were sensitive to a loss situation. These results demonstrate the sensitivity of humans to statistical variables in inductive reasoning. Furthermore, methodological comparison indicated that the experimentally observed values of TCR were close to, but not as precise as the optimal values predicted by Bayes' model. On the other hand, the subjective TCR estimated by subjects was highly discrepant from the observed TCR. These findings suggest that various aspects of inductive reasoning can be fruitfully investigated not only from subjective estimations such as probability likelihood but also from an objective behavioral perspective.

Microsatellite variation reveals weak genetic structure and retention of genetic variability in threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within a Snake River watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neville, Helen; Issacs, Frank B.; Thurow, Russel; Dunham, J.B.; Rieman, B.

2007-01-01

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) have been central to the development of management concepts associated with evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), yet there are still relatively few studies of genetic diversity within threatened and endangered ESUs for salmon or other species. We analyzed genetic variation at 10 microsatellite loci to evaluate spatial population structure and genetic variability in indigenous Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) across a large wilderness basin within a Snake River ESU. Despite dramatic 20th century declines in abundance, these populations retained robust levels of genetic variability. No significant genetic bottlenecks were found, although the bottleneck metric (M ratio) was significantly correlated with average population size and variability. Weak but significant genetic structure existed among tributaries despite evidence of high levels of gene flow, with the strongest genetic differentiation mirroring the physical segregation of fish from two sub-basins. Despite the more recent colonization of one sub-basin and differences between sub-basins in the natural level of fragmentation, gene diversity and genetic differentiation were similar between sub-basins. Various factors, such as the (unknown) genetic contribution of precocial males, genetic compensation, lack of hatchery influence, and high levels of current gene flow may have contributed to the persistence of genetic variability in this system in spite of historical declines. This unique study of indigenous Chinook salmon underscores the importance of maintaining natural populations in interconnected and complex habitats to minimize losses of genetic diversity within ESUs.

Being Attractive Brings Advantages: The Case of Parrot Species in Captivity

PubMed Central

Frynta, Daniel; Lišková, Silvie; Bültmann, Sebastian; Burda, Hynek

2010-01-01

Background Parrots are one of the most frequently kept and bred bird orders in captivity. This increases poaching and thus the potential importance of captive populations for rescue programmes managed by zoos and related institutions. Both captive breeding and poaching are selective and may be influenced by the attractiveness of particular species to humans. In this paper, we tested the hypothesis that the size of zoo populations is not only determined by conservation needs, but also by the perceived beauty of individual parrot species assessed by human observers. Methodology/Principal Findings For the purpose of data collection, we defined four sets of species (40 parrots, 367 parrots, 34 amazons, 17 macaws). Then, we asked 776 human respondents to evaluate parrot pictures of the selected species according to perceived beauty and we analyzed its association with color and morphological characters. Irrespective of the species set, we found a good agreement among the respondents. The preferred species tended to be large, colorful, and long-tailed. Conclusions/Significance We repeatedly confirmed significant, positive association between the perceived beauty and the size of worldwide zoo population. Moreover, the range size and body size appeared to be significant predictors of zoo population size. In contrast, the effects of other explanatory variables, including the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) listing, appeared insignificant. Our results may suggest that zoos preferentially keep beautiful parrots and pay less attention to conservation needs. PMID:20830206

Intraspecific Variation in Wood Anatomical, Hydraulic, and Foliar Traits in Ten European Beech Provenances Differing in Growth Yield

PubMed Central

Hajek, Peter; Kurjak, Daniel; von Wühlisch, Georg; Delzon, Sylvain; Schuldt, Bernhard

2016-01-01

In angiosperms, many studies have described the inter-specific variability of hydraulic-related traits and little is known at the intra-specific level. This information is however mandatory to assess the adaptive capacities of tree populations in the context of increasing drought frequency and severity. Ten 20-year old European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) provenances representing the entire distribution range throughout Europe and differing significantly in aboveground biomass increment (ABI) by a factor of up to four were investigated for branch wood anatomical, hydraulic, and foliar traits in a provenance trial located in Northern Europe. We quantified to which extend xylem hydraulic and leaf traits are under genetic control and tested whether the xylem hydraulic properties (hydraulic efficiency and safety) trades off with yield and wood anatomical and leaf traits. Our results showed that only three out of 22 investigated ecophysiological traits showed significant genetic differentiations between provenances, namely vessel density (VD), the xylem pressure causing 88% loss of hydraulic conductance and mean leaf size. Depending of the ecophysiological traits measured, genetic differentiation between populations explained 0–14% of total phenotypic variation, while intra-population variability was higher than inter-population variability. Most wood anatomical traits and some foliar traits were additionally related to the climate of provenance origin. The lumen to sapwood area ratio, vessel diameter, theoretical specific conductivity and theoretical leaf-specific conductivity as well as the C:N-ratio increased with climatic aridity at the place of origin while the carbon isotope signature (δ13C) decreased. Contrary to our assumption, none of the wood anatomical traits were related to embolism resistance but were strong determinants of hydraulic efficiency. Although ABI was associated with both VD and δ13C, both hydraulic efficiency and embolism resistance were unrelated, disproving the assumed trade-off between hydraulic efficiency and safety. European beech seems to compensate increasing water stress with growing size mainly by adjusting vessel number and not vessel diameter. In conclusion, European beech has a high potential capacity to cope with climate change due to the high degree of intra-population genetic variability. PMID:27379112

Intraspecific Variation in Wood Anatomical, Hydraulic, and Foliar Traits in Ten European Beech Provenances Differing in Growth Yield.

PubMed

Hajek, Peter; Kurjak, Daniel; von Wühlisch, Georg; Delzon, Sylvain; Schuldt, Bernhard

2016-01-01

In angiosperms, many studies have described the inter-specific variability of hydraulic-related traits and little is known at the intra-specific level. This information is however mandatory to assess the adaptive capacities of tree populations in the context of increasing drought frequency and severity. Ten 20-year old European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) provenances representing the entire distribution range throughout Europe and differing significantly in aboveground biomass increment (ABI) by a factor of up to four were investigated for branch wood anatomical, hydraulic, and foliar traits in a provenance trial located in Northern Europe. We quantified to which extend xylem hydraulic and leaf traits are under genetic control and tested whether the xylem hydraulic properties (hydraulic efficiency and safety) trades off with yield and wood anatomical and leaf traits. Our results showed that only three out of 22 investigated ecophysiological traits showed significant genetic differentiations between provenances, namely vessel density (VD), the xylem pressure causing 88% loss of hydraulic conductance and mean leaf size. Depending of the ecophysiological traits measured, genetic differentiation between populations explained 0-14% of total phenotypic variation, while intra-population variability was higher than inter-population variability. Most wood anatomical traits and some foliar traits were additionally related to the climate of provenance origin. The lumen to sapwood area ratio, vessel diameter, theoretical specific conductivity and theoretical leaf-specific conductivity as well as the C:N-ratio increased with climatic aridity at the place of origin while the carbon isotope signature (δ(13)C) decreased. Contrary to our assumption, none of the wood anatomical traits were related to embolism resistance but were strong determinants of hydraulic efficiency. Although ABI was associated with both VD and δ(13)C, both hydraulic efficiency and embolism resistance were unrelated, disproving the assumed trade-off between hydraulic efficiency and safety. European beech seems to compensate increasing water stress with growing size mainly by adjusting vessel number and not vessel diameter. In conclusion, European beech has a high potential capacity to cope with climate change due to the high degree of intra-population genetic variability.

Biotic and abiotic factors related to lake herring recruitment in the Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior, 1984-1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoff, Michael H.

2004-01-01

Lake Superior lake herring (Coregonus artedi) recruitment to 13-14 months of age in the Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior varied by a factor of 5,233 during 1984-1998. Management agencies have sought models that accurately predict recruitment, but no satisfactory model had previously been developed. Lake herring recruitment was modeled to determine which factors most explained recruitment variability. The Ricker stock-recruitment model derived from only the paired stock and recruit data explained 35% of the variability in the recruitment data. The functional relationship that explained the greatest amount of recruitment variation (93%) included lake herring stock size, lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) population size, slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) biomass, the interaction of mean daily wind speed in April (month of hatch) and lake herring stock size, and mean air temperature in April (when lake herring are 12-months old). Model results were interpreted to mean that lake herring recruitment was affected negatively by: slimy sculpin predation on lake herring ova; predation on age-0 lake herring by lake trout; and adult cannibalism on lake herring larvae, which was reduced by increased wind speed. April temperature was the variable that explained the least amount of variability in recruitment, but lake herring recruitment was positively affected by a warm April, which shortened winter and apparently reduced first-winter mortality. Stock size caused compensatory, density-dependent mortality on lake herring recruits. Management efforts appear best targeted at stock size protection, and empirical data implies that stock size in the Wisconsin waters of the lake should be maintained at 2.1-15.0 adults/ha in spring, bottom-trawl surveys.

Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forcada, J.; Malone, D.; Royle, J. Andrew; Staniland, I.J.

2009-01-01

Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90-125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12-16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the "escapement" due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species targeted by fisheries; and (2) predatory impacts and community control may vary throughout the predator's geographic range, and differ across ecosystems and management areas, depending on the seasonal abundance of the prey and the predator's dispersal movements. This understanding is important to integrate the predator needs as natural mortality of its prey in models to set prey catch limits for fisheries. Reliable estimates of the variability of these needs are essential for a precautionary interpretation in the context of an ecosystem-based management. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forcada, J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Staniland, I.J.

2009-01-01

Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90?125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12?16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the ?escapement? due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species targeted by fisheries; and (2) predatory impacts and community control may vary throughout the predator's geographic range, and differ across ecosystems and management areas, depending on the seasonal abundance of the prey and the predator's dispersal movements. This understanding is important to integrate the predator needs as natural mortality of its prey in models to set prey catch limits for fisheries. Reliable estimates of the variability of these needs are essential for a precautionary interpretation in the context of an ecosystem-based management.

Short amplexus duration in a territorial anuran: a possible adaptation in response to male-male competition.

PubMed

Chuang, Ming-Feng; Bee, Mark A; Kam, Yeong-Choy

2013-01-01

Mating duration is a reproductive behaviour that can impact fertilization efficiency and offspring number. Previous studies of factors influencing the evolution of mating duration have focused on the potential role of internal sperm competition as an underlying source of selection; most of these studies have been on invertebrates. For vertebrates with external fertilization, such as fishes and frogs, the sources of selection acting on mating duration remain largely unknown due, in part, to the difficulty of observing complete mating behaviours in natural conditions. In this field study, we monitored breeding activity in a population of the territorial olive frog, Rana adenopleura, to identify factors that affect the duration of amplexus. Compared with most other frogs, amplexus was short, lasting less than 11 min on average, which included about 8 min of pre-oviposition activity followed by 3 min of oviposition. We evaluated the relationship between amplexus duration and seven variables: male body size, male condition, operational sex ratio (OSR), population size, clutch size, territory size, and the coverage of submerged vegetation in a male's territory. We also investigated the influence of these same variables, along with amplexus duration, on fertilization rate. Amplexus duration was positively related with clutch size and the degree of male-bias in the nightly OSR. Fertilization rate was directly related to male body size and inversely related to amplexus duration. Agonistic interactions between males in amplexus and intruding, unpaired males were frequent. These interactions often resulted in mating failure, prolonged amplexus duration, and reduced fertilization rates. Together, the pattern of our findings indicates short amplexus duration in this species may be an adaptive reproductive strategy whereby males attempt to reduce the risks of mating and fertilization failures and territory loss resulting from male-male competition.

Investigating the population structure and genetic differentiation of livestock guard dog breeds.

PubMed

Bigi, D; Marelli, S P; Liotta, L; Frattini, S; Talenti, A; Pagnacco, G; Polli, M; Crepaldi, P

2018-01-14

Livestock guarding dogs are a valuable adjunct to the pastoral community. Having been traditionally selected for their working ability, they fulfil their function with minimal interaction or command from their human owners. In this study, the population structure and the genetic differentiation of three Italian livestock guardian breeds (Sila's Dog, Maremma and Abruzzese Sheepdog and Mannara's Dog) and three functionally and physically similar breeds (Cane Corso, Central Asian Shepherd Dog and Caucasian Shepherd Dog), totalling 179 dogs unrelated at the second generation, were investigated with 18 autosomal microsatellite markers. Values for the number of alleles per locus, observed and expected heterozygosity, Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium, F stats, Nei's and Reynold's genetic distances, clustering and sub-population formation abilities and individual genetic structures were calculated. Our results show clear breed differentiation, whereby all the considered breeds show reasonable genetic variability despite small population sizes and variable selection schemes. These results provide meaningful data to stakeholders in specific breed and environmental conservation programmes.

Development and Validation of the Body Size Scale for Assessing Body Weight Perception in African Populations

PubMed Central

Cohen, Emmanuel; Bernard, Jonathan Y.; Ponty, Amandine; Ndao, Amadou; Amougou, Norbert; Saïd-Mohamed, Rihlat; Pasquet, Patrick

2015-01-01

Background The social valorisation of overweight in African populations could promote high-risk eating behaviours and therefore become a risk factor of obesity. However, existing scales to assess body image are usually not accurate enough to allow comparative studies of body weight perception in different African populations. This study aimed to develop and validate the Body Size Scale (BSS) to estimate African body weight perception. Methods Anthropometric measures of 80 Cameroonians and 81 Senegalese were used to evaluate three criteria of adiposity: body mass index (BMI), overall percentage of fat, and endomorphy (fat component of the somatotype). To develop the BSS, the participants were photographed in full face and profile positions. Models were selected for their representativeness of the wide variability in adiposity with a progressive increase along the scale. Then, for the validation protocol, participants self-administered the BSS to assess self-perceived current body size (CBS), desired body size (DBS) and provide a “body self-satisfaction index.” This protocol included construct validity, test-retest reliability and convergent validity and was carried out with three independent samples of respectively 201, 103 and 1115 Cameroonians. Results The BSS comprises two sex-specific scales of photos of 9 models each, and ordered by increasing adiposity. Most participants were able to correctly order the BSS by increasing adiposity, using three different words to define body size. Test-retest reliability was consistent in estimating CBS, DBS and the “body self-satisfaction index.” The CBS was highly correlated to the objective BMI, and two different indexes assessed with the BSS were consistent with declarations obtained in interviews. Conclusion The BSS is the first scale with photos of real African models taken in both full face and profile and representing a wide and representative variability in adiposity. The validation protocol proved its reliability for estimating body weight perception in Africans. PMID:26536030

Weber's law implies neural discharge more regular than a Poisson process.

PubMed

Kang, Jing; Wu, Jianhua; Smerieri, Anteo; Feng, Jianfeng

2010-03-01

Weber's law is one of the basic laws in psychophysics, but the link between this psychophysical behavior and the neuronal response has not yet been established. In this paper, we carried out an analysis on the spike train statistics when Weber's law holds, and found that the efferent spike train of a single neuron is less variable than a Poisson process. For population neurons, Weber's law is satisfied only when the population size is small (< 10 neurons). However, if the population neurons share a weak correlation in their discharges and individual neuronal spike train is more regular than a Poisson process, Weber's law is true without any restriction on the population size. Biased competition attractor network also demonstrates that the coefficient of variation of interspike interval in the winning pool should be less than one for the validity of Weber's law. Our work links Weber's law with neural firing property quantitatively, shedding light on the relation between psychophysical behavior and neuronal responses.

Population size and stopover duration estimation using mark–resight data and Bayesian analysis of a superpopulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, James E.; Kendall, William L.; Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.; Andres, Brad A.; Buchanan, Joseph B.

2016-01-01

We present a novel formulation of a mark–recapture–resight model that allows estimation of population size, stopover duration, and arrival and departure schedules at migration areas. Estimation is based on encounter histories of uniquely marked individuals and relative counts of marked and unmarked animals. We use a Bayesian analysis of a state–space formulation of the Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, integrated with a binomial model for counts of unmarked animals, to derive estimates of population size and arrival and departure probabilities. We also provide a novel estimator for stopover duration that is derived from the latent state variable representing the interim between arrival and departure in the state–space model. We conduct a simulation study of field sampling protocols to understand the impact of superpopulation size, proportion marked, and number of animals sampled on bias and precision of estimates. Simulation results indicate that relative bias of estimates of the proportion of the population with marks was low for all sampling scenarios and never exceeded 2%. Our approach does not require enumeration of all unmarked animals detected or direct knowledge of the number of marked animals in the population at the time of the study. This provides flexibility and potential application in a variety of sampling situations (e.g., migratory birds, breeding seabirds, sea turtles, fish, pinnipeds, etc.). Application of the methods is demonstrated with data from a study of migratory sandpipers.

Harbor porpoise Phocoena phocoena strandings on the Dutch coast: No genetic structure, but evidence of inbreeding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Plas-Duivesteijn, Suzanne J.; Smit, Femmie J. L.; van Alphen, Jacques J. M.; Kraaijeveld, Ken

2015-03-01

Conservation management in the North Sea is often motivated by the population size of marine mammals, like harbor porpoises Phocoena phocoena. In the Dutch part of the North Sea, sighting and stranding data are used to estimate population sizes, but these data give little insight into genetic structuring of the population. In this study we investigated genetic structure among animals stranded at different locations and times of year. We also tested whether there is a link between stranding and necropsy data, and genetic diversity. We made use of both mitochondrial (mtDNA) and microsatellite DNA analysis of samples from dead stranded porpoises along the Dutch coast during 2007. mtDNA analysis showed 6 variable positions in the control region, defining 3 different haplotypes. mtDNA haplotypes were not randomly distributed along the Dutch coastline. However, microsatellite analysis showed that these mtDNA haplotypes did not represent separate groups on a nuclear level. Furthermore, microsatellite analysis revealed no genotypic differences between seasons, locations or genders. The results of this study indicate that the Dutch population is panmictic. In contrast, heterozygosity levels were low, indicating some level of inbreeding in this population. However, this was not corroborated by other indices of inbreeding. This research provided insight into genetic structuring of stranded porpoises in 2007, but data from multiple years should be included to be able to help estimate population sizes.

The association between the supply of primary care physicians and population health outcomes in Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Juhyun; Park, Sangmin; Choi, Kyunghyun; Kwon, Soon-Man

2010-10-01

Several studies reported that primary care improves health outcomes for populations. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between the supply of primary care physicians and population health outcomes in Korea. Data were extracted from the 2007 report of the Health Insurance Review, the 2005 report from the Korean National Statistical Office, and the 2008 Korean Community Health Survey. The dependent variables were age-adjusted all-cause and disease-specific mortality rates, and independent variables were the supply of primary care physicians, the ratio of primary care physicians to specialists, the number of beds, socioeconomic factors (unemployment rate, local tax, education), population (population size, proportion of the elderly over age 65), and health behaviors (smoking, exercise, using seat belts rates). We used multivariate linear regression as well as ANOVA and t tests. A higher number of primary care physicians was associated with lower all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, and cardiovascular mortality. However, the ratio of primary care physicians to specialists was not related to all-cause mortality. In addition, the relationship between socioeconomic variables and mortality rates was similar in strength to the relationship between the supply of primary care physicians and mortality rates. Accident mortality, suicide mortality, infection mortality, and perinatal mortality were not related to the supply of primary care physicians. The supply of primary care physicians is associated with improved health outcomes, especially in chronic diseases and cancer. However, other variables such as the socioeconomic factors and population factors seem to have a more significant influence on these outcomes.

Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon.

PubMed

Preisler, Haiganoush K; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Ager, Alan A; Hayes, Jane L

2012-11-01

Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process models that simulate climate suitability for mountain pine beetle outbreaks have advanced our understanding of beetle population dynamics; however, there are few studies that have assessed their accuracy across multiple outbreaks or at larger spatial scales. This study used the observed number of trees killed by mountain pine beetles per square kilometer in Oregon and Washington, USA, over the past three decades to quantify and assess the influence of climate and weather variables on beetle activity over longer time periods and larger scales than previously studied. Influences of temperature and precipitation in addition to process model output variables were assessed at annual and climatological time scales. The statistical analysis showed that new attacks are more likely to occur at locations with climatological mean August temperatures >15 degrees C. After controlling for beetle pressure, the variables with the largest effect on the odds of an outbreak exceeding a certain size were minimum winter temperature (positive relationship) and drought conditions in current and previous years. Precipitation levels in the year prior to the outbreak had a positive effect, possibly an indication of the influence of this driver on brood size. Two-year cumulative precipitation had a negative effect, a possible indication of the influence of drought on tree stress. Among the process model variables, cold tolerance was the strongest indicator of an outbreak increasing to epidemic size. A weather suitability index developed from the regression analysis indicated a 2.5x increase in the odds of outbreak at locations with highly suitable weather vs. locations with low suitability. The models were useful for estimating expected amounts of damage (total area with outbreaks) and for quantifying the contribution of climate to total damage. Overall, the results confirm the importance of climate and weather on the spatial expansion of bark beetle outbreaks over time.

Allele frequency distribution for the variable number of tandem repeat locus D10S28 in Tamil Nadu (south India) population.

PubMed

Pandian, S K; Kumar, S; Krishnan, M; Dharmalingam, K; Damodaran, C

1995-09-01

Allele frequencies were determined in unrelated individuals of Tamil speaking population from the Madras City (Tamil Nadu, South India) area for the polymorphic DNA locus D10S28 using the probe TBQ7. Membranes hybridized with the probe YNH24 were subjected to deprobing and were subsequently hybridized with random priming - labeled, purified inserts of TBQ7. The sizes of the fragments were grouped to 100 bp as well as to arbitrary fixed bins (Federal Bureau of Investigation / Royal Canadian Mounted Police). There were 14 bins in the latter with the most common bin being 11 (1789-1924 bp) with a frequency of 9.8%. We observed a heterozygosity of 92% comparable to Caucasian populations. The data presented here can be used as the basis for utilizing this variable number of tandem repeats (TNTR) DNA marker for paternity determinations and forensic investigations.

Atypical reproductive cycles in a population of Sceloporus grammicus (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) from the Mexican Plateau

PubMed Central

Ramírez-Bautista, Aurelio; Stephenson, Barry P; Lozano, Abraham; Uribe-Rodríguez, Héctor; Leyte Manrique, Adrian

2012-01-01

The spiny lizard Sceloporus grammicus (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) is a small reptile from central México and the southern United States, occurring in a wide geographic area characterized by extensive variation in topographic and climatic regimes. Genetic variation among lineages from central México is substantial, though the extent to which this variation corresponds with life-history traits remains obscure. To address part of this puzzle, we studied a population of S. grammicus from Tepeapulco, Hidalgo, México. Male-biased sexual dimorphism was extensive in this population; males were larger than females overall, and expressed proportionately larger heads and longer limbs. Minimum size at sexual maturity was similar in the sexes (males: 43 mm; females: 42 mm). In contrast to other populations from the Central Plateau, reproductive activity of males and females was synchronous. Testicular recrudescence of adult males was initiated in October–November, and maximum testis size maintained from December to July. Female reproductive activity showed no clear seasonal pattern: females had vitellogenic follicles from October to July, and pregnant females were found throughout the year. Female body size was not related to litter size. Neither male nor female gonadal mass was correlated with any abiotic environmental variable examined. Differences in reproductive characteristics among populations of S. grammicus might be indicative of plasticity in response to local environmental conditions, local adaptation, or complex gene × environment interactions. We consider these results in the context of previously studied populations of S. grammicus from the Central Plateau and elsewhere, and propose directions for future research. PMID:22957191

Genetic analysis of the Venezuelan Criollo horse.

PubMed

Cothran, E G; Canelon, J L; Luis, C; Conant, E; Juras, R

2011-10-07

Various horse populations in the Americas have an origin in Spain; they are remnants of the first livestock introduced to the continent early in the colonial period (16th and 17th centuries). We evaluated genetic variability within the Venezuelan Criollo horse and its relationship with other horse breeds. We observed high levels of genetic diversity within the Criollo breed. Significant population differentiation was observed between all South American breeds. The Venezuelan Criollo horse showed high levels of genetic diversity, and from a conservation standpoint, there is no immediate danger of losing variation unless there is a large drop in population size.

Correlates of Sexual Abuse and Smoking among French Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Gary; Guilbert, Philippe; Ward, D. Gant; Arwidson, Pierre; Noubary, Farzad

2006-01-01

Objective: The goal of this study was to examine the association between sexual abuse (SA) and initiation, cessation, and current cigarette smoking among a large representative adult population in France. Method: A random sample size of 12,256 adults (18-75 years of age) was interviewed by telephone concerning demographic variables, health…

Exact Interval Estimation, Power Calculation, and Sample Size Determination in Normal Correlation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shieh, Gwowen

2006-01-01

This paper considers the problem of analysis of correlation coefficients from a multivariate normal population. A unified theorem is derived for the regression model with normally distributed explanatory variables and the general results are employed to provide useful expressions for the distributions of simple, multiple, and partial-multiple…

An Investigation of the Sampling Distribution of the Congruence Coefficient.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broadbooks, Wendy J.; Elmore, Patricia B.

This study developed and investigated an empirical sampling distribution of the congruence coefficient. The effects of sample size, number of variables, and population value of the congruence coefficient on the sampling distribution of the congruence coefficient were examined. Sample data were generated on the basis of the common factor model and…

Variance Estimation, Design Effects, and Sample Size Calculations for Respondent-Driven Sampling

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

Hidden populations, such as injection drug users and sex workers, are central to a number of public health problems. However, because of the nature of these groups, it is difficult to collect accurate information about them, and this difficulty complicates disease prevention efforts. A recently developed statistical approach called respondent-driven sampling improves our ability to study hidden populations by allowing researchers to make unbiased estimates of the prevalence of certain traits in these populations. Yet, not enough is known about the sample-to-sample variability of these prevalence estimates. In this paper, we present a bootstrap method for constructing confidence intervals around respondent-driven sampling estimates and demonstrate in simulations that it outperforms the naive method currently in use. We also use simulations and real data to estimate the design effects for respondent-driven sampling in a number of situations. We conclude with practical advice about the power calculations that are needed to determine the appropriate sample size for a study using respondent-driven sampling. In general, we recommend a sample size twice as large as would be needed under simple random sampling. PMID:16937083

How Reliable Are the Reported Genetic Associations in Disc Degeneration?: The Influence of Phenotypes, Age, Population Size, and Inclusion Sequence in 809 Patients.

PubMed

Rajasekaran, S; Kanna, Rishi Mugesh; Reddy, Ranjani Raja; Natesan, Senthil; Raveendran, Muthuraja; Cheung, Kenneth M C; Chan, Danny; Kao, Patrick Y P; Yee, Anita; Shetty, Ajoy Prasad

2016-11-01

Prospective genetic association study. The aim of this study was to document the variations in the genetic associations, when different magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) phenotypes, age stratification, cohort size, and sequence of cohort inclusion are varied in the same study population. Genetic associations with disc degeneration have shown high inconsistency, generally attributed to hereditary factors and ethnic variations. However, the effect of different phenotypes, size of the study population, age of the cohort, etc have not been documented clearly. Seventy-one single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of 41 candidate genes were correlated to six MRI markers of disc degeneration (annular tears, Pfirmann grading, Schmorl nodes, Modic changes, Total Endplate Damage score, and disc bulge) in 809 patients with back pain and/or sciatica. In the same study group, the correlations were then retested for different age groups, different sample, size and sequence of subject inclusion (first 404 and the second 405) and the differences documented. The mean age of population (M: 455, F: 354) was 36.7 ± 10.8 years. Different genetic associations were found with different phenotypes: disc bulge with three SNPs of CILP; annular tears with rs2249350 of ADAMTS5 and rs11247361 IGF1R; modic changes with VDR and MMP20; Pfirmann grading with three SNPs of MMP20 and Schmorl node with SNPs of CALM1 and FN1 and none with Total End Plate Score.Subgroup analysis based on three age groups and dividing the total population into two groups also completely changed the associations for all the six radiographic parameters. In the same study population, SNP associations completely change with different phenotypes. Variations in age, inclusion sequence, and sample size resulted in change of genetic associations. Our study questions the validity of previous studies and necessitates the need for standardizing the description of disc degeneration, phenotype selection, study sample size, age, and other variables in future studies. 4.

Intrinsic Variability in Shell and Soft Tissue Growth of the Freshwater Mussel Lampsilis siliquoidea

PubMed Central

Larson, James H.; Eckert, Nathan L.; Bartsch, Michelle R.

2014-01-01

Freshwater mussels are ecologically and economically important members of many aquatic ecosystems, but are globally among the most imperiled taxa. Propagation techniques for mussels have been developed and used to boost declining and restore extirpated populations. Here we use a cohort of propagated mussels to estimate the intrinsic variability in size and growth rate of Lampsilis siliquoidea (a commonly propagated species). Understanding the magnitude and pattern of variation in data is critical to determining whether effects observed in nature or experimental treatments are likely to be important. The coefficient of variation (CV) of L. siliquoidea soft tissues (6.0%) was less than the CV of linear shell dimensions (25.1–66.9%). Size-weight relationships were best when mussel width (the maximum left-right dimension with both valves appressed) was used as a predictor, but 95% credible intervals on these predictions for soft tissues were ∼145 mg wide (about 50% of the mean soft tissue mass). Mussels in this study were treated identically, raised from a single cohort and yet variation in soft tissue mass at a particular size class (as determined by shell dimensions) was still high. High variability in mussel size is often acknowledged, but seldom discussed in the context of mussel conservation. High variability will influence the survival of stocked juvenile cohorts, may affect the ability to experimentally detect sublethal stressors and may lead to incongruities between the effects that mussels have on structure (via hard shells) and biogeochemical cycles (via soft tissue metabolism). Given their imperiled status and longevity, there is often reluctance to destructively sample unionid mussel soft tissues even in metabolic studies (e.g., studies of nutrient cycling). High intrinsic variability suggests that using shell dimensions (particularly shell length) as a response variable in studies of sublethal stressors or metabolic processes will make confident identifications of smaller effect sizes difficult. PMID:25411848

Intrinsic variability in shell and soft tissue growth of the freshwater mussel Lampsilis siliquoidea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larson, James H.; Eckert, Nathan L.; Bartsch, Michelle

2014-01-01

Freshwater mussels are ecologically and economically important members of many aquatic ecosystems, but are globally among the most imperiled taxa. Propagation techniques for mussels have been developed and used to boost declining and restore extirpated populations. Here we use a cohort of propagated mussels to estimate the intrinsic variability in size and growth rate of Lampsilis siliquoidea (a commonly propagated species). Understanding the magnitude and pattern of variation in data is critical to determining whether effects observed in nature or experimental treatments are likely to be important. The coefficient of variation (CV) of L. siliquoidea soft tissues (6.0%) was less than the CV of linear shell dimensions (25.1-66.9%). Size-weight relationships were best when mussel width (the maximum left-right dimension with both valves appressed) was used as a predictor, but 95% credible intervals on these predictions for soft tissues were ~145 mg wide (about 50% of the mean soft tissue mass). Mussels in this study were treated identically, raised from a single cohort and yet variation in soft tissue mass at a particular size class (as determined by shell dimensions) was still high. High variability in mussel size is often acknowledged, but seldom discussed in the context of mussel conservation. High variability will influence the survival of stocked juvenile cohorts, may affect the ability to experimentally detect sublethal stressors and may lead to incongruities between the effects that mussels have on structure (via hard shells) and biogeochemical cycles (via soft tissue metabolism). Given their imperiled status and longevity, there is often reluctance to destructively sample unionid mussel soft tissues even in metabolic studies (e.g., studies of nutrient cycling). High intrinsic variability suggests that using shell dimensions (particularly shell length) as a response variable in studies of sublethal stressors or metabolic processes will make confident identifications of smaller effect sizes difficult.

Plastic flies: the regulation and evolution of trait variability in Drosophila.

PubMed

Shingleton, Alexander W; Tang, Hui Yuan

2012-01-01

Individuals within species and populations vary. Such variation arises through environmental and genetic factors and ensures that no two individuals are identical. However, it is clear that not all traits show the same degree of intraspecific variation. Some traits, in particular secondary sexual characteristics used by males to compete for and attract females, are extremely variable among individuals in a population. Other traits, for example brain size in mammals, are not. Recent research has begun to explore the possibility that the extent of phenotypic variation (here referred to as "variability") may be a character itself and subject to natural selection. While these studies support the concept of variability as an evolvable trait, controversy remains over what precisely the trait is. At the heart of this controversy is the fact that there are very few examples of developmental mechanisms that regulate trait variability in response to any source of variation, be it environmental or genetic. Here, we describe a recent study from our laboratory that identifies such a mechanism. We then place the study in the context of current research on the regulation of trait variability, and discuss the implications for our understanding of the developmental regulation and evolution of phenotypic variation.

Personal resource questionnaire: a systematic review.

PubMed

Tawalbeh, Loai I; Ahmad, Muayyad M

2013-09-01

Social support is a key nursing variable. No review has yet systematically assessed the effectiveness of the personal resource questionnaire (PRQ) as a measure of perceived social support. This article reviewed nine previous studies that used the PRQ (Brandt & Weinert, 1981). Completed studies were identified through searches of indexes that included PubMed, the Cumulative Index for Nursing and EBSCO host, and Ovid. Studies that reported PRQ scores, sample descriptions, and sample sizes and that tested the relationship between the PRQ and study variables were included in the present review. Three other studies were included that did not report on PRQ correlations with other health variables. The included studies addressed a variety of health problems and different population in different settings. Cronbach's alphas for the included studies ranged from .87 to .93, supporting the internal consistency of the PRQ. Hypothesized relationships between the PRQ and study variables including health promotion behavior, self-care behavior, self-efficacy, self-esteem, stress, depression, loneliness, pain, and disability were supported, providing positive evidence for PRQ construct validity. Included studies used the PRQ to address disparate populations in terms of age, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and educational background. This review found the PRQ to be a reliable and valid tool for measuring perceived social support across a wide range of populations. Further studies are necessary to examine the relationship between social support and selected demographics among populations with different cultural backgrounds.

Influence of behavior and mating success on brood-specific contribution to fish recruitment in ponds.

PubMed

Parkos, Joseph J; Wahl, David H; Philipp, David P

2011-10-01

One source of uncertainty in predicting the response of populations to exploitation is individual differences within a population in both vulnerability to capture and contribution to population renewal. For species with parental care, individuals engaged in nesting behavior are often targeted for exploitation, but predicting outcomes of this nonrandom vulnerability will depend in part on an understanding of how parental traits are related to potential for brood contribution to the population. Variation in brood-specific contribution to recruitment of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), a fish species with extended parental care, was quantified to determine if differences in mating success, parental care behaviors, and timing of reproduction influenced offspring recruitment. Dependence of these relationships on brood predation was tested in communities that differed in the presence of bluegill, Lepomis macrochirus, an important nest predator. Daily snorkel surveys were conducted in experimental ponds during spring to monitor male spawning and parental care behaviors in populations of largemouth bass. Tissue samples collected from larvae in nests were used to develop brood-specific DNA fingerprints for determining nest origins of fall recruits. Largemouth bass spawning period in bluegill ponds was longer and more variable in duration, with lower, more variable mating success, than in ponds without bluegill. In all populations, only one or two broods provided the majority of recruits, and these were broods produced during the earliest days of spawning by the oldest, largest males. In bluegill ponds, brood contribution from earliest nests also increased with brood size. Earliest nesters were the oldest males, and recruits from these nests were often above average in body size. Offspring needed to be guarded to at least swim-up larval stage to contribute any recruits. Termination of parental protection before offspring were free swimming mainly occurred with broods guarded by smaller males in ponds with brood predators. These age- and size-specific differences in timing of spawning and duration of parental care are consistent with influences of residual reproductive value and energetic constraints on reproductive behavior. Furthermore, these patterns of individual contribution to recruitment imply that fisheries that selectively target either nesting individuals or larger, older males could potentially decrease recruitment at the population scale.

Growth anomalies on the coral genera Acropora and Porites are strongly associated with host density and human population size across the Indo-Pacific

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aeby, Greta S.; Williams, Gareth J.; Franklin, Erik C.; Haapkyla, Jessica; Harvell, C. Drew; Neale, Stephen; Page, Cathie A.; Raymundo, Laurie; Vargas-Angel, Bernardo; Willis, Bette L.; Work, Thierry M.; Davy, Simon K.

2011-01-01

Growth anomalies (GAs) are common, tumor-like diseases that can cause significant morbidity and decreased fecundity in the major Indo-Pacific reef-building coral genera, Acropora and Porites. GAs are unusually tractable for testing hypotheses about drivers of coral disease because of their pan-Pacific distributions, relatively high occurrence, and unambiguous ease of identification. We modeled multiple disease-environment associations that may underlie the prevalence of Acropora growth anomalies (AGA) (n = 304 surveys) and Porites growth anomalies (PGA) (n = 602 surveys) from across the Indo-Pacific. Nine predictor variables were modeled, including coral host abundance, human population size, and sea surface temperature and ultra-violet radiation anomalies. Prevalence of both AGAs and PGAs were strongly host density-dependent. PGAs additionally showed strong positive associations with human population size. Although this association has been widely posited, this is one of the first broad-scale studies unambiguously linking a coral disease with human population size. These results emphasize that individual coral diseases can show relatively distinct patterns of association with environmental predictors, even in similar diseases (growth anomalies) found on different host genera (Acropora vs. Porites). As human densities and environmental degradation increase globally, the prevalence of coral diseases like PGAs could increase accordingly, halted only perhaps by declines in host density below thresholds required for disease establishment.

Growth Anomalies on the Coral Genera Acropora and Porites Are Strongly Associated with Host Density and Human Population Size across the Indo-Pacific

PubMed Central

Franklin, Erik C.; Haapkyla, Jessica; Harvell, C. Drew; Neale, Stephen; Page, Cathie A.; Raymundo, Laurie; Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo; Willis, Bette L.; Work, Thierry M.; Davy, Simon K.

2011-01-01

Growth anomalies (GAs) are common, tumor-like diseases that can cause significant morbidity and decreased fecundity in the major Indo-Pacific reef-building coral genera, Acropora and Porites. GAs are unusually tractable for testing hypotheses about drivers of coral disease because of their pan-Pacific distributions, relatively high occurrence, and unambiguous ease of identification. We modeled multiple disease-environment associations that may underlie the prevalence of Acropora growth anomalies (AGA) (n = 304 surveys) and Porites growth anomalies (PGA) (n = 602 surveys) from across the Indo-Pacific. Nine predictor variables were modeled, including coral host abundance, human population size, and sea surface temperature and ultra-violet radiation anomalies. Prevalence of both AGAs and PGAs were strongly host density-dependent. PGAs additionally showed strong positive associations with human population size. Although this association has been widely posited, this is one of the first broad-scale studies unambiguously linking a coral disease with human population size. These results emphasize that individual coral diseases can show relatively distinct patterns of association with environmental predictors, even in similar diseases (growth anomalies) found on different host genera (Acropora vs. Porites). As human densities and environmental degradation increase globally, the prevalence of coral diseases like PGAs could increase accordingly, halted only perhaps by declines in host density below thresholds required for disease establishment. PMID:21365011

N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, i describe a class of models (n-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, n, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for n. Carroll and lombard (1985, journal of american statistical association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on n that is exploited by the n-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the n-mixture estimator compared to the caroll and lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

Effect size for the main cognitive function determinants in a large cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Mura, T; Amieva, H; Goldberg, M; Dartigues, J-F; Ankri, J; Zins, M; Berr, C

2016-11-01

The aim of our study was to examine the effect sizes of different cognitive function determinants in middle and early old age. Cognitive functions were assessed in 11 711 volunteers (45 to 75 years old), included in the French CONSTANCES cohort between January 2012 and May 2014, using the free and cued selective reminding test (FCSRT), verbal fluency tasks, digit-symbol substitution test (DSST) and trail making test (TMT), parts A and B. The effect sizes of socio-demographic (age, sex, education), lifestyle (alcohol, tobacco, physical activity), cardiovascular (diabetes, blood pressure) and psychological (depressive symptomatology) variables were computed as omega-squared coefficients (ω 2 ; part of the variation of a neuropsychological score that is independently explained by a given variable). These sets of variables explained from R 2 = 10% (semantic fluency) to R 2 = 26% (DSST) of the total variance. In all tests, socio-demographic variables accounted for the greatest part of the explained variance. Age explained from ω 2 = 0.5% (semantic fluency) to ω 2 = 7.5% (DSST) of the total score variance, gender from ω 2 = 5.2% (FCSRT) to a negligible part (semantic fluency or TMT) and education from ω 2 = 7.2% (DSST) to ω 2 = 1.4% (TMT-A). Behavioral, cardiovascular and psychological variables only slightly influenced the cognitive test results (all ω 2 < 0.8%, most ω 2 < 0.1%). Socio-demographic variables (age, gender and education) are the main variables associated with cognitive performance variations between 45 and 75 years of age in the general population. © 2016 EAN.

Why Is Bigger Not Always Better in Primary Health Care Practices? The Role of Mediating Organizational Factors.

PubMed

Pineault, Raynald; Provost, Sylvie; Borgès Da Silva, Roxane; Breton, Mylaine; Levesque, Jean-Frédéric

2016-01-01

Size of primary health care (PHC) practices is often used as a proxy for various organizational characteristics related to provision of care. The objective of this article is to identify some of these organizational characteristics and to determine the extent to which they mediate the relationship between size of PHC practice and patients' experience of care, preventive services, and unmet needs. In 2010, we conducted population and organization surveys in 2 regions of the province of Quebec. We carried out multilevel linear and logistic regression analyses, adjusting for respondents' individual characteristics. Size of PHC practice was associated with organizational characteristics and resources, patients' experience of care, unmet needs, and preventive services. Overall, the larger the size of a practice, the higher the accessibility, but the lower the continuity. However, these associations faded away when organizational variables were introduced in the analysis model. This result supports the hypothesized mediating effect of organizational characteristics on relationships between practice size and patients' experience of care, preventive services, and unmet needs. Our results indicate that size does not add much information to organizational characteristics. Using size as a proxy for organizational characteristics can even be misleading because its relationships with different outcomes are highly variable. © The Author(s) 2016.

Variability in size-selective mortality obscures the importance of larval traits to recruitment success in a temperate marine fish.

PubMed

Murphy, Hannah M; Warren-Myers, Fletcher W; Jenkins, Gregory P; Hamer, Paul A; Swearer, Stephen E

2014-08-01

In fishes, the growth-mortality hypothesis has received broad acceptance as a driver of recruitment variability. Recruitment is likely to be lower in years when the risk of starvation and predation in the larval stage is greater, leading to higher mortality. Juvenile snapper, Pagrus auratus (Sparidae), experience high recruitment variation in Port Phillip Bay, Australia. Using a 5-year (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011) data set of larval and juvenile snapper abundances and their daily growth histories, based on otolith microstructure, we found selective mortality acted on larval size at 5 days post-hatch in 4 low and average recruitment years. The highest recruitment year (2005) was characterised by no size-selective mortality. Larval growth of the initial larval population was related to recruitment, but larval growth of the juveniles was not. Selective mortality may have obscured the relationship between larval traits of the juveniles and recruitment as fast-growing and large larvae preferentially survived in lower recruitment years and fast growth was ubiquitous in high recruitment years. An index of daily mortality within and among 3 years (2007, 2008, 2010), where zooplankton were concurrently sampled with ichthyoplankton, was related to per capita availability of preferred larval prey, providing support for the match-mismatch hypothesis. In 2010, periods of low daily mortality resulted in no selective mortality. Thus both intra- and inter-annual variability in the magnitude and occurrence of selective mortality in species with complex life cycles can obscure relationships between larval traits and population replenishment, leading to underestimation of their importance in recruitment studies.

The Relationship Between Structural Game Characteristics and Gambling Behavior: A Population-Level Study.

PubMed

Leino, Tony; Torsheim, Torbjørn; Blaszczynski, Alex; Griffiths, Mark; Mentzoni, Rune; Pallesen, Ståle; Molde, Helge

2015-12-01

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between the structural characteristics and gambling behavior among video lottery terminal (VLT) gamblers. The study was ecological valid, because the data consisted of actual gambling behavior registered in the participants natural gambling environment without intrusion by researchers. Online behavioral tracking data from Multix, an eight game video lottery terminal, were supplied by Norsk-Tipping (the state owned gambling company in Norway). The sample comprised the entire population of Multix gamblers (N = 31,109) who had gambled in January 2010. The individual number of bets made across games was defined as the dependent variable, reward characteristics of a game (i.e., payback percentage, hit frequency, size of winnings and size of jackpot) and bet characteristics of a game (i.e., range of betting options and availability of advanced betting options) served as the independent variables. Control variables were age and gender. Two separate cross-classified multilevel random intercepts models were used to analyze the relationship between bets made, reward characteristics and bet characteristics, where the number of bets was nested within both individuals and within games. The results show that the number of bets is positively associated with payback percentage, hit frequency, being female and age, and negatively associated with size of wins and range of available betting options. In summary, the results show that the reward characteristics and betting options explained 27% and 15% of the variance in the number of bets made, respectively. It is concluded that structural game characteristics affect gambling behavior. Implications of responsible gambling are discussed.

Long‐term trends in fall age ratios of black brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David H.; Amundson, Courtney L.; Stehn, Robert A.; Dau, Christian P.

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of the age composition of populations can inform past reproductive success and future population trajectories. We examined fall age ratios (juveniles:total birds) of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) staging at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula, southwest Alaska, USA, 1963 to 2015. We also investigated variation in fall age ratios associated with sampling location, an index of flock size, survey effort, day of season, observer, survey platform (boat‐ or land‐based) and tide stage. We analyzed data using logistic regression models implemented in a Bayesian framework. Mean predicted fall age ratio controlling for survey effort, day of year, and temporal and spatial variation was 0.24 (95% CL = 0.23, 0.25). Overall trend in age ratios was −0.6% per year (95% CL = −1.3%, 0.2%), resulting in an approximate 26% decline in the proportion of juveniles over the study period. We found evidence for variation across a range of variables implying that juveniles are not randomly distributed in space and time within Izembek Lagoon. Age ratios varied by location within the study area and were highly variable among years. They decreased with the number of birds aged (an index of flock size) and increased throughout September before leveling off in early October and declining in late October. Age ratios were similar among tide stages and observers and were lower during boat‐based (offshore) than land‐based (nearshore) surveys. Our results indicate surveys should be conducted annually during early to mid‐October to ensure the entire population is present and available for sampling, and throughout Izembek Lagoon to account for spatiotemporal variation in age ratios. Sampling should include a wide range of flock sizes representative of their distribution and occur in flocks located near and off shore. Further research evaluating the cause of declining age ratios in the fall population is necessary to inform management and predict long‐term population dynamics of brant.

Climate and demography in early prehistory: using calibrated (14)C dates as population proxies.

PubMed

Riede, Felix

2009-04-01

Although difficult to estimate for prehistoric hunter-gatherer populations, demographic variables-population size, density, and the connectedness of demes-are critical for a better understanding of the processes of material culture change, especially in deep prehistory. Demography is the middle-range link between climatic changes and both biological and cultural evolutionary trajectories of human populations. Much of human material culture functions as a buffer against climatic changes, and the study of prehistoric population dynamics, estimated through changing frequencies of calibrated radiocarbon dates, therefore affords insights into how effectively such buffers operated and when they failed. In reviewing a number of case studies (Mesolithic Ireland, the origin of the Bromme culture, and the earliest late glacial human recolonization of southern Scandinavia), I suggest that a greater awareness of demographic processes, and in particular of demographic declines, provides many fresh insights into what structured the archaeological record. I argue that we cannot sideline climatic and environmental factors or extreme geophysical events in our reconstructions of prehistoric culture change. The implications of accepting demographic variability as a departure point for evaluating the archaeological record are discussed.

Comparative recruitment dynamics of Alewife and Bloater in Lakes Michigan and Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Riley, Stephen C.

2014-01-01

The predictive power of recruitment models often relies on the identification and quantification of external variables, in addition to stock size. In theory, the identification of climatic, biotic, or demographic influences on reproductive success assists fisheries management by identifying factors that have a direct and reproducible influence on the population dynamics of a target species. More often, models are constructed as one-time studies of a single population whose results are not revisited when further data become available. Here, we present results from stock recruitment models for Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Bloater Coregonus hoyi in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The factors that explain variation in Bloater recruitment were remarkably consistent across populations and with previous studies that found Bloater recruitment to be linked to population demographic patterns in Lake Michigan. Conversely, our models were poor predictors of Alewife recruitment in Lake Huron but did show some agreement with previously published models from Lake Michigan. Overall, our results suggest that external predictors of fish recruitment are difficult to discern using traditional fisheries models, and reproducing the results from previous studies may be difficult particularly at low population sizes.

An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison Sage-Grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Phillips, Michael L.; Doherty, Paul F.

2014-01-01

Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.

Animal social networks as substrate for cultural behavioural diversity.

PubMed

Whitehead, Hal; Lusseau, David

2012-02-07

We used individual-based stochastic models to examine how social structure influences the diversity of socially learned behaviour within a non-human population. For continuous behavioural variables we modelled three forms of dyadic social learning, averaging the behavioural value of the two individuals, random transfer of information from one individual to the other, and directional transfer from the individual with highest behavioural value to the other. Learning had potential error. We also examined the transfer of categorical behaviour between individuals with random directionality and two forms of error, the adoption of a randomly chosen existing behavioural category or the innovation of a new type of behaviour. In populations without social structuring the diversity of culturally transmitted behaviour increased with learning error and population size. When the populations were structured socially either by making individuals members of permanent social units or by giving them overlapping ranges, behavioural diversity increased with network modularity under all scenarios, although the proportional increase varied considerably between continuous and categorical behaviour, with transmission mechanism, and population size. Although functions of the form e(c)¹(m)⁻(c)² + (c)³(Log(N)) predicted the mean increase in diversity with modularity (m) and population size (N), behavioural diversity could be highly unpredictable both between simulations with the same set of parameters, and within runs. Errors in social learning and social structuring generally promote behavioural diversity. Consequently, social learning may be considered to produce culture in populations whose social structure is sufficiently modular. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader.

PubMed

Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

2016-01-01

Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (Q(ST)) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F'(ST)), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. The study suggests that although genetic variation may facilitate plant invasions by increasing seedling establishment, it may not necessarily affect the long-term population growth rate. Therefore, established invasions may be able to grow equally well regardless of their genetic diversity. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Crocodiles in the Sahara Desert: An Update of Distribution, Habitats and Population Status for Conservation Planning in Mauritania

PubMed Central

Brito, José C.; Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Sierra, Pablo; Sillero, Neftalí; Tarroso, Pedro

2011-01-01

Background Relict populations of Crocodylus niloticus persist in Chad, Egypt and Mauritania. Although crocodiles were widespread throughout the Sahara until the early 20th century, increased aridity combined with human persecution led to local extinction. Knowledge on distribution, occupied habitats, population size and prey availability is scarce in most populations. This study evaluates the status of Saharan crocodiles and provides new data for Mauritania to assist conservation planning. Methodology/Principal Findings A series of surveys in Mauritania detected crocodile presence in 78 localities dispersed across 10 river basins and most tended to be isolated within river basins. Permanent gueltas and seasonal tâmoûrts were the most common occupied habitats. Crocodile encounters ranged from one to more than 20 individuals, but in most localities less than five crocodiles were observed. Larger numbers were observed after the rainy season and during night sampling. Crocodiles were found dead in between water points along dry river-beds suggesting the occurrence of dispersal. Conclusion/Significance Research priorities in Chad and Egypt should focus on quantifying population size and pressures exerted on habitats. The present study increased in by 35% the number of known crocodile localities in Mauritania. Gueltas are crucial for the persistence of mountain populations. Oscillations in water availability throughout the year and the small dimensions of gueltas affect biological traits, including activity and body size. Studies are needed to understand adaptation traits of desert populations. Molecular analyses are needed to quantify genetic variability, population sub-structuring and effective population size, and detect the occurrence of gene flow. Monitoring is needed to detect demographical and genetical trends in completely isolated populations. Crocodiles are apparently vulnerable during dispersal events. Awareness campaigns focusing on the vulnerability and relict value of crocodiles should be implemented. Classification of Mauritanian mountains as protected areas should be prioritised. PMID:21364897

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.

PubMed

Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J

2018-01-01

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

Estimating Regions of Oceanographic Importance for Seabirds Using A-Spatial Data.

PubMed

Humphries, Grant Richard Woodrow

2015-01-01

Advances in GPS tracking technologies have allowed for rapid assessment of important oceanographic regions for seabirds. This allows us to understand seabird distributions, and the characteristics which determine the success of populations. In many cases, quality GPS tracking data may not be available; however, long term population monitoring data may exist. In this study, a method to infer important oceanographic regions for seabirds will be presented using breeding sooty shearwaters as a case study. This method combines a popular machine learning algorithm (generalized boosted regression modeling), geographic information systems, long-term ecological data and open access oceanographic datasets. Time series of chick size and harvest index data derived from a long term dataset of Maori 'muttonbirder' diaries were obtained and used as response variables in a gridded spatial model. It was found that areas of the sub-Antarctic water region best capture the variation in the chick size data. Oceanographic features including wind speed and charnock (a derived variable representing ocean surface roughness) came out as top predictor variables in these models. Previously collected GPS data demonstrates that these regions are used as "flyways" by sooty shearwaters during the breeding season. It is therefore likely that wind speeds in these flyways affect the ability of sooty shearwaters to provision for their chicks due to changes in flight dynamics. This approach was designed to utilize machine learning methodology but can also be implemented with other statistical algorithms. Furthermore, these methods can be applied to any long term time series of population data to identify important regions for a species of interest.

Inbreeding in Mimulus guttatus Reduces Visitation by Bumble Bee Pollinators

PubMed Central

Carr, David E.; Roulston, T’ai H.; Hart, Haley

2014-01-01

Inbreeding in plants typically reduces individual fitness but may also alter ecological interactions. This study examined the effect of inbreeding in the mixed-mating annual Mimulus guttatus on visitation by pollinators (Bombus impatiens) in greenhouse experiments. Previous studies of M. guttatus have shown that inbreeding reduced corolla size, flower number, and pollen quantity and quality. Using controlled crosses, we produced inbred and outbred families from three different M. guttatus populations. We recorded the plant genotypes that bees visited and the number of flowers probed per visit. In our first experiment, bees were 31% more likely to visit outbred plants than those selfed for one generation and 43% more likely to visit outbred plants than those selfed for two generations. Inbreeding had only a small effect on the number of flowers probed once bees arrived at a genotype. These differences were explained partially by differences in mean floral display and mean flower size, but even when these variables were controlled statistically, the effect of inbreeding remained large and significant. In a second experiment we quantified pollen viability from inbred and self plants. Bees were 37–54% more likely to visit outbred plants, depending on the population, even when controlling for floral display size. Pollen viability proved to be as important as floral display in predicting pollinator visitation in one population, but the overall explanatory power of a multiple regression model was weak. Our data suggested that bees use cues in addition to display size, flower size, and pollen reward quality in their discrimination of inbred plants. Discrimination against inbred plants could have effects on plant fitness and thereby reinforce selection for outcrossing. Inbreeding in plant populations could also reduce resource quality for pollinators, potentially resulting in negative effects on pollinator populations. PMID:25036035

Environmental drivers defining linkages among life-history traits: mechanistic insights from a semiterrestrial amphipod subjected to macroscale gradients.

PubMed

Gómez, Julio; Barboza, Francisco R; Defeo, Omar

2013-10-01

Determining the existence of interconnected responses among life-history traits and identifying underlying environmental drivers are recognized as key goals for understanding the basis of phenotypic variability. We studied potentially interconnected responses among senescence, fecundity, embryos size, weight of brooding females, size at maturity and sex ratio in a semiterrestrial amphipod affected by macroscale gradients in beach morphodynamics and salinity. To this end, multiple modelling processes based on generalized additive mixed models were used to deal with the spatio-temporal structure of the data obtained at 10 beaches during 22 months. Salinity was the only nexus among life-history traits, suggesting that this physiological stressor influences the energy balance of organisms. Different salinity scenarios determined shifts in the weight of brooding females and size at maturity, having consequences in the number and size of embryos which in turn affected sex determination and sex ratio at the population level. Our work highlights the importance of analysing field data to find the variables and potential mechanisms that define concerted responses among traits, therefore defining life-history strategies.

Conservation genetics and species recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Ed; Vandergast, A.G.; King, T.L.

2008-01-01

Recent advances in molecular genetics have proven to be extremely useful in efforts to conserve imperiled species. Genetics data are used to identify appropriate units of management (e.g., populations, metapopulations), effective sizes of breeding populations, population mixing rates, and other variables. These data help managers make decisions about which populations to preserve, whether to move individuals from one site to another, how to breed species most effectively in captivity, and even, in some cases, what taxonomic classification is most appropriate. Many U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Centers and Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units have developed capabilities in genetics research. The two case studies that follow illustrate how USGS geneticists are assisting managers in recovering species on the brink.

Causes of intraspecific variation in body size among trematode metacercariae.

PubMed

Saldanha, I; Leung, T L F; Poulin, R

2009-09-01

Inequalities in body size among adult helminths can result in inequalities in reproductive output, with consequences for population dynamics and genetics. These inequalities can result from growth differences among larval worms inside intermediate hosts that persist into the adult stage. Here, we investigate the effects of both host body size and intensity of infection on the sizes of metacercariae of the trematode Maritrema novaezealandensis (Microphallidae) inside their second intermediate host, the isopod Paridotea ungulata (Idoteidae). Among the more than 1500 metacercariae recovered and individually measured, there was no relationship between the mean diameter of metacercarial cysts per isopod and isopod body length. However, intensity of infection correlated negatively with the mean diameter of cysts within an isopod, i.e. metacercariae in crowded infections attained smaller sizes on average. In contrast, the variability in cyst sizes per isopod, measured as the coefficient of variation, was independent of both isopod body length and infection intensity. Our results show that a disproportionate number of relatively small metacercariae come from the relatively few hosts in which a large fraction of all metacercariae are aggregated. The combination of aggregation and intensity-dependent growth generates inequalities in sizes among metacercariae that will be passed on to adult worm populations in definitive hosts.

Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, K.T.; Arntzen, J.W.; Burke, T.

1997-01-01

Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (N(b)) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of N(b) (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were ??? 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N(b) and N(e) based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

Asymmetric patch size distribution leads to disruptive selection on dispersal.

PubMed

Massol, François; Duputié, Anne; David, Patrice; Jarne, Philippe

2011-02-01

Numerous models have been designed to understand how dispersal ability evolves when organisms live in a fragmented landscape. Most of them predict a single dispersal rate at evolutionary equilibrium, and when diversification of dispersal rates has been predicted, it occurs as a response to perturbation or environmental fluctuation regimes. Yet abundant variation in dispersal ability is observed in natural populations and communities, even in relatively stable environments. We show that this diversification can operate in a simple island model without temporal variability: disruptive selection on dispersal occurs when the environment consists of many small and few large patches, a common feature in natural spatial systems. This heterogeneity in patch size results in a high variability in the number of related patch mates by individual, which, in turn, triggers disruptive selection through a high per capita variance of inclusive fitness. Our study provides a likely, parsimonious and testable explanation for the diversity of dispersal rates encountered in nature. It also suggests that biological conservation policies aiming at preserving ecological communities should strive to keep the distribution of patch size sufficiently asymmetric and variable. © 2010 The Author(s). Evolution© 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Human cranial anatomy and the differential preservation of population history and climate signatures.

PubMed

Harvati, Katerina; Weaver, Timothy D

2006-12-01

Cranial morphology is widely used to reconstruct evolutionary relationships, but its reliability in reflecting phylogeny and population history has been questioned. Some cranial regions, particularly the face and neurocranium, are believed to be influenced by the environment and prone to convergence. Others, such as the temporal bone, are thought to reflect more accurately phylogenetic relationships. Direct testing of these hypotheses was not possible until the advent of large genetic data sets. The few relevant studies in human populations have had intriguing but possibly conflicting results, probably partly due to methodological differences and to the small numbers of populations used. Here we use three-dimensional (3D) geometric morphometrics methods to test explicitly the ability of cranial shape, size, and relative position/orientation of cranial regions to track population history and climate. Morphological distances among 13 recent human populations were calculated from four 3D landmark data sets, respectively reflecting facial, neurocranial, and temporal bone shape; shape and relative position; overall cranial shape; and centroid sizes. These distances were compared to neutral genetic and climatic distances among the same, or closely matched, populations. Results indicate that neurocranial and temporal bone shape track neutral genetic distances, while facial shape reflects climate; centroid size shows a weak association with climatic variables; and relative position/orientation of cranial regions does not appear correlated with any of these factors. Because different cranial regions preserve population history and climate signatures differentially, caution is suggested when using cranial anatomy for phylogenetic reconstruction. Copyright (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Within-population variability influences early seedling establishment in four Mediterranean oaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Rodríguez, Victoria; Barrio, Isabel C.; Villar, Rafael

2012-05-01

Regeneration of Mediterranean forests is severely limited. Multiple abiotic factors are known to constrain the establishment of woody seedlings at its first phases, such as summer drought or excessive incident radiation, but less attention has been paid to the role of intra-specific variation in seedling performance. In this study we investigate the relative influence of environment (light availability, soil moisture and summer irrigation) and intrinsic factors (seed mass and maternal origin) as determinants of within-population variability in the early establishment of four coexisting Mediterranean oaks (Quercus ilex, Quercus suber, Quercus faginea and Quercus pyrenaica), from emergence and early growth to second-year survival in a field experiment. Seed size was a poor predictor of seed and seedling success. Instead, mother identity showed a stronger effect on seedling performance. Time and percentage of emergence, establishment success and morphological traits varied among seedlings from different maternal trees but main drivers for each variable were different for each species. In addition to a direct effect, in many cases mother-related intrinsic traits and seed mass influenced the effects of environmental conditions on seedling performance. The role of intrinsic factors was masked under ameliorated conditions (i.e. summer irrigation), indicating the relevant role of within-population variability to cope with highly heterogeneous and unpredictable Mediterranean environments.

Height and seasonal growth pattern of jack pine full-sib families

Treesearch

Don E. Riemenschneider

1981-01-01

Total tree height, seasonal shoot elongation, dates of growth initiation and cessation, and mean daily growth rate were measured and analyzed for a population of jack pine full-sib families derived from inter-provenance crosses. Parental provenance had no effect on these variables although this may have been due to small sample size. Progenies differed significantly...

Illiteracy, Sex and Occupational Status in Present-Day China.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamontagne, Jacques

This study determined the magnitude of disparity between men and women in China in relation to illiteracy and occupational status. Region and ethnicity are used as control variables. The data collected are from a 10 percent sampling of the 1982 census; the total sample size includes a population of 100,380,000 nationwide. The census questionnaire…

An assessment of sauger population characteristics on two Tennessee River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Christy L.; Bettoli, Phillip William; Churchill, Timothy N.

2015-01-01

In 1992, a 356-mm minimum length limit (MLL) was enacted on Kentucky Lake and a 381-mm MLL was enacted on Watts Bar Lake, two mainstem reservoirs on the Tennessee River, in an attempt to reduce exploitation and improve the size structure of the sauger (Sander canadensis) populations. The objectives of this study were to compare sauger population characteristics immediately following (1993–1994) and 15 years after (2008–2009) the regulations took effect, examine spatial and temporal patterns in growth, examine recruitment patterns in each reservoir using a recruitment variability index (RVI), and assess the current likelihood of overfishing. Saugers were collected with experimental gill nets in each reservoir and aged using otoliths. A Beverton-Holt yield-per-recruit model was used to simulate angler yields and estimate the likelihood of growth overfishing. Recruitment overfishing was assessed by examining spawning potential ratios under various MLL and exploitation rate scenarios. The sauger population in Kentucky Lake experienced modest improvements in size and age structure over the 15 years following enactment of more restrictive harvest regulations, whereas the population in Watts Bar Lake changed very little, if at all, in terms of size and age structure. Mean lengths of age-3 sauger were significantly greater in Watts Bar Lake than in Kentucky Lake in both time periods. The RVI values indicated that between 1993 and 2009 the sauger in Kentucky Lake displayed more stable recruitment than the Watts Bar Lake population. Neither population exhibited signs of growth overfishing in 2008–09 under the current length limits; however, the Watts Bar Lake population would be susceptible to recruitment overfishing at high (>40%) exploitation rates if natural mortality was as low as 20%. These analyses have demonstrated that the Watts Bar Lake and Kentucky Lake populations, in terms of size and age structure, have remained relatively stable over 15+ years and the MLLs appear to be conserving the stocks.

A preliminary study of variation of Trapa in Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kadono, Yasuro; Rybicki, Nancy B.; Lai, Vincent

2018-05-31

SummaryFrequent occurrence of intermediate forms and poor knowledge on the variability of characters have caused some difficulties in the taxonomy of Trapa in Japan. Thus I made a preliminary analysis on the variation of nuts collected from 21 populations in Southwestern Japan. Attention was paid to some morphometrical characters of the nut and development of lower spines or “pseudohorns.” Each population usually contained different forms of nuts. Among them, however, several entities could be recognized based on the shape of nut as follows. 1) Two-spined form: This included nuts of middle size (width 30–50 mm) and ones of big size (width over 45 mm). In case of the former ones, the nuts with pseudohorns of varying degree of development usually occurred together within one population and even on a single plant. I propose to treat them as one taxon, Trapa japonica, sensu OHWI (1965), without inventing varieties. But at the same time, it was remarkable that the tendency of development of pseudohorns was apparently different from population to population. The bigger ones included two types, that is, one without pseudohorns and the other with pseudohorns. The former one may be identified as T. bispinosa ROXB., but the latter one has not been described in literature. 2) Four-spined form: The nuts of small size (width of about 20 mm) were well definable and thought to be T. incisa SIEB. et ZUCC. The nuts of bigger size showed some variations with respect to their size and/or stoutness of lower spines. The big ones (width over 45 mm) may be treated as one taxon, T. natans or its variety. The nuts of middle size have been named T. natans var. pumila NAKANO. But so far as present materials were concerned, its entity seemed dubious. They might be immature nuts of bigger ones. The different patterns of variation among populations were ascribed to genetic differentiation. Predominance of self-pollination and isolation of habitats were thought to promote genetic isolation and preservation of genetic variations which occurred in each population. But the possibility of hybridization cannot be excluded.

Dynamics of stochastic SEIS epidemic model with varying population size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiamin; Wei, Fengying

2016-12-01

We introduce the stochasticity into a deterministic model which has state variables susceptible-exposed-infected with varying population size in this paper. The infected individuals could return into susceptible compartment after recovering. We show that the stochastic model possesses a unique global solution under building up a suitable Lyapunov function and using generalized Itô's formula. The densities of the exposed and infected tend to extinction when some conditions are being valid. Moreover, the conditions of persistence to a global solution are derived when the parameters are subject to some simple criteria. The stochastic model admits a stationary distribution around the endemic equilibrium, which means that the disease will prevail. To check the validity of the main results, numerical simulations are demonstrated as end of this contribution.

First passage properties of a generalized Pólya urn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearney, Michael J.; Martin, Richard J.

2016-12-01

A generalized two-component Pólya urn process, parameterized by a variable α , is studied in terms of the likelihood that due to fluctuations the initially smaller population in a scenario of competing population growth eventually becomes the larger, or is the larger after a certain passage of time. By casting the problem as an inhomogeneous directed random walk we quantify this role-reversal phenomenon through the first passage probability that equality in size is first reached at a given time, and the related exit probability that equality in size is reached no later than a given time. Using an embedding technique, exact results are obtained which complement existing results and provide new insights into behavioural changes (akin to phase transitions) which occur at defined values of α .

Protection of obstetric dimensions in a small-bodied human sample.

PubMed

Kurki, Helen K

2007-08-01

In human females, the bony pelvis must find a balance between being small (narrow) for efficient bipedal locomotion, and being large to accommodate a relatively large newborn. It has been shown that within a given population, taller/larger-bodied women have larger pelvic canals. This study investigates whether in a population where small body size is the norm, pelvic geometry (size and shape), on average, shows accommodation to protect the obstetric canal. Osteometric data were collected from the pelves, femora, and clavicles (body size indicators) of adult skeletons representing a range of adult body size. Samples include Holocene Later Stone Age (LSA) foragers from southern Africa (n = 28 females, 31 males), Portuguese from the Coimbra-identified skeletal collection (CISC) (n = 40 females, 40 males) and European-Americans from the Hamann-Todd osteological collection (H-T) (n = 40 females, 40 males). Patterns of sexual dimorphism are similar in the samples. Univariate and multivariate analyses of raw and Mosimann shape-variables indicate that compared to the CISC and H-T females, the LSA females have relatively large midplane and outlet canal planes (particularly posterior and A-P lengths). The LSA males also follow this pattern, although with absolutely smaller pelves in multivariate space. The CISC females, who have equally small stature, but larger body mass, do not show the same type of pelvic canal size and shape accommodation. The results suggest that adaptive allometric modeling in at least some small-bodied populations protects the obstetric canal. These findings support the use of population-specific attributes in the clinical evaluation of obstetric risk. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Spatial variation in abiotic and biotic factors in a floodplain determine anuran body size and growth rate at metamorphosis.

PubMed

Indermaur, Lukas; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Tockner, Klement; Schaub, Michael

2010-07-01

Body size at metamorphosis is a critical trait in the life history of amphibians. Despite the wide-spread use of amphibians as experimental model organisms, there is a limited understanding of how multiple abiotic and biotic factors affect the variation in metamorphic traits under natural conditions. The aim of our study was to quantify the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on spatial variation in the body size of tadpoles and size at metamorphosis of the European common toad (Bufo b. spinosus). Our study population was distributed over the riverbed (active tract) and the fringing riparian forest of a natural floodplain. The riverbed had warm ponds with variable hydroperiod and few predators, whereas the forest had ponds with the opposite characteristics. Spatial variation in body size at metamorphosis was governed by the interactive effects of abiotic and biotic factors. The particular form of the interaction between water temperature and intraspecific tadpole density suggests that abiotic factors laid the foundation for biotic factors: intraspecific density decreased growth only at high temperature. Predation and intraspecific density jointly reduced metamorphic size. Interspecific density had a negligible affect on body size at metamorphosis, suggesting weak inter-anuran interactions in the larval stage. Population density at metamorphosis was about one to two orders of magnitudes higher in the riverbed ponds than in the forest ponds, mainly because of lower tadpole mortality. Based on our results, we conclude that ponds in the riverbed appear to play a pivotal role for the population because tadpole growth and survival is best in this habitat.

Separating the effects of environment and space on tree species distribution: from population to community.

PubMed

Lin, Guojun; Stralberg, Diana; Gong, Guiquan; Huang, Zhongliang; Ye, Wanhui; Wu, Linfang

2013-01-01

Quantifying the relative contributions of environmental conditions and spatial factors to species distribution can help improve our understanding of the processes that drive diversity patterns. In this study, based on tree inventory, topography and soil data from a 20-ha stem-mapped permanent forest plot in Guangdong Province, China, we evaluated the influence of different ecological processes at different spatial scales using canonical redundancy analysis (RDA) at the community level and multiple linear regression at the species level. At the community level, the proportion of explained variation in species distribution increased with grid-cell sizes, primarily due to a monotonic increase in the explanatory power of environmental variables. At the species level, neither environmental nor spatial factors were important determinants of overstory species' distributions at small cell sizes. However, purely spatial variables explained most of the variation in the distributions of understory species at fine and intermediate cell sizes. Midstory species showed patterns that were intermediate between those of overstory and understory species. At the 20-m cell size, the influence of spatial factors was stronger for more dispersal-limited species, suggesting that much of the spatial structuring in this community can be explained by dispersal limitation. Comparing environmental factors, soil variables had higher explanatory power than did topography for species distribution. However, both topographic and edaphic variables were highly spatial structured. Our results suggested that dispersal limitation has an important influence on fine-intermediate scale (from several to tens of meters) species distribution, while environmental variability facilitates species distribution at intermediate (from ten to tens of meters) and broad (from tens to hundreds of meters) scales.

The population ecology of two tropical trees, Brachychiton diversifolius (Malvaceae) and Bombax ceiba (Bombaceae), harvested by Indigenous woodcarvers in Arnhem Land, Australia.

PubMed

Koenig, Jennifer; Griffiths, Anthony

2012-10-01

We describe the population ecology of two tropical deciduous trees, Bombax ceiba leiocarpum A. Robyns and Brachychiton diversifolius R. Br., which are in high demand for Indigenous sculpture production in Arnhem Land, Australia. We monitored tagged populations of both species at two locations for 2 years to examine their reproduction, growth, and survival rates and their response to harvest. Both species have similar life histories: they reproduce during the dry season (June-November) producing a high seed load, seed predation was high, seeds did not survive in the soil past the following wet season to form a seed bank, and germination rates were low and variable for both species. Average annual circumference growth rates were 1.07 cm year(-1) for B. ceiba and 0.98 cm year(-1) for B. diversifolius, with most of the growth occurring during the early wet season. Most (65-88 %) of the harvested B. ceiba and B. diversifolius stems coppiced. Coppice and stem size class were the main factors influencing tree growth rates with coppice stems growing up to six times faster than similar sized non-coppice stems. The survival of B. ceiba and B. diversifolius stems was size class dependent and affected by local site factors (e.g. fire and other disturbances) so that the smaller size classes had a low probability of survival. Given the resprouting potential of both species, their wild harvest is likely to have only minimal local impact on wild populations. However, further population modelling is required to determine whether the small and disjunct B. ceiba populations can sustain harvesting at current levels.

Sexual dimorphism in human cranial trait scores: effects of population, age, and body size.

PubMed

Garvin, Heather M; Sholts, Sabrina B; Mosca, Laurel A

2014-06-01

Sex estimation from the skull is commonly performed by physical and forensic anthropologists using a five-trait scoring system developed by Walker. Despite the popularity of this method, validation studies evaluating its accuracy across a variety of samples are lacking. Furthermore, it remains unclear what other intrinsic or extrinsic variables are related to the expression of these traits. In this study, cranial trait scores and postcranial measurements were collected from four diverse population groups (U.S. Whites, U.S. Blacks, medieval Nubians, and Arikara Native Americans) following Walker's protocols (total n = 499). Univariate and multivariate analyses were utilized to evaluate the accuracy of these traits in sex estimation, and to test for the effects of population, age, and body size on trait expressions. Results revealed significant effects of population on all trait scores. Sample-specific correct sex classification rates ranged from 74% to 94%, with an overall accuracy of 85% for the pooled sample. Classification performance varied among the traits (best for glabella and mastoid scores and worst for nuchal scores). Furthermore, correlations between traits were weak or nonsignificant, suggesting that different factors may influence individual traits. Some traits displayed correlations with age and/or postcranial size that were significant but weak, and within-population analyses did not reveal any consistent relationships between these traits across all groups. These results indicate that neither age nor body size plays a large role in trait expression, and thus does not need to be incorporated into sex estimation methods. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Analysis of Binary Multivariate Longitudinal Data via 2-Dimensional Orbits: An Application to the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa

PubMed Central

Visaya, Maria Vivien; Sherwell, David; Sartorius, Benn; Cromieres, Fabien

2015-01-01

We analyse demographic longitudinal survey data of South African (SA) and Mozambican (MOZ) rural households from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa. In particular, we determine whether absolute poverty status (APS) is associated with selected household variables pertaining to socio-economic determination, namely household head age, household size, cumulative death, adults to minor ratio, and influx. For comparative purposes, households are classified according to household head nationality (SA or MOZ) and APS (rich or poor). The longitudinal data of each of the four subpopulations (SA rich, SA poor, MOZ rich, and MOZ poor) is a five-dimensional space defined by binary variables (questions), subjects, and time. We use the orbit method to represent binary multivariate longitudinal data (BMLD) of each household as a two-dimensional orbit and to visualise dynamics and behaviour of the population. At each time step, a point (x, y) from the orbit of a household corresponds to the observation of the household, where x is a binary sequence of responses and y is an ordering of variables. The ordering of variables is dynamically rearranged such that clusters and holes associated to least and frequently changing variables in the state space respectively, are exposed. Analysis of orbits reveals information of change at both individual- and population-level, change patterns in the data, capacity of states in the state space, and density of state transitions in the orbits. Analysis of household orbits of the four subpopulations show association between (i) households headed by older adults and rich households, (ii) large household size and poor households, and (iii) households with more minors than adults and poor households. Our results are compared to other methods of BMLD analysis. PMID:25919116

[Civil status and suicide].

PubMed

Gaxiola-Robles, Ramón; Bitzer-Quintero, Oscar Kurt; García-González, Adolfo; Celis-de la Rosa, Alfredo

2009-01-01

To determine if civil status acts as a risk factor in suicide and how it modifies according to gender, age and population size. A retrospective study which analyzes information from the mortality data from the National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Information, from 1998 to 2002. Variables like suicides age, sex, cause of death, federal entity, population size and civil status were registered. Single men showed twofold risk for committing suicide. Women did not show any associated risk for suicide according to civil status. The risk of married men for committing suicide increased gradually with age. Medium-sized communities with less than 19,999 habitants presented the highest risk for habitants to commit suicide. Suicide is associated to gender especially to men who are not married and living in small and medium-sized communities. One explanation could be the lack of integrated behavior as defined by Emile Durkheim, where the physical density of society will determine behavior and ideas. This social structure phenomenon is called the "moral cocoon." This works around the individual being less individualistic and granting him/her the feeling of belonging to a group.

Variable flexure-based fluid filter

DOEpatents

Brown, Steve B.; Colston, Jr., Billy W.; Marshall, Graham; Wolcott, Duane

2007-03-13

An apparatus and method for filtering particles from a fluid comprises a fluid inlet, a fluid outlet, a variable size passage between the fluid inlet and the fluid outlet, and means for adjusting the size of the variable size passage for filtering the particles from the fluid. An inlet fluid flow stream is introduced to a fixture with a variable size passage. The size of the variable size passage is set so that the fluid passes through the variable size passage but the particles do not pass through the variable size passage.

Effects of Freshwater Discharge in Sandy Beach Populations: The Mole Crab Emerita brasiliensis in Uruguay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lercari, D.; Defeo, O.

1999-10-01

Sandy beaches are ecosystems which are heavily affected by human activities. An example of this is freshwater discharges, which are known to change salinity, temperature and nutrient regimes and degrade nearshore environments. However, the effects of this kind of disturbance on sandy beach fauna have been little studied. This paper reports the spatial effects of a man-made freshwater canal discharge on the population structure, abundance and reproductive characteristics of the sandy beach mole crab Emerita brasiliensis. Along the 22 km of sandy beach sampled, the mole crab showed a marked longshore variability in population structure and abundance. Abundance of different population components (juveniles, males, females and ovigerous females) significantly decreased towards the canal. Population structure by sex and size, individual weight, fecundity and female maturity patterns at size also displayed a non-linear response to the distance from the freshwater discharge. Only the size structure of males did not follow this pattern. For males, spatial heterogeneity enhanced the detection of density-dependence at less disturbed sites. The authors conclude that artificial freshwater discharges could significantly influence the distribution, abundance and life-history traits of the biota of sandy beaches, and that further study of these ecosystems should include human activities as important factors affecting spatial and temporal trends. The need to consider different spatial and temporal scales in order to detect the effect of anthropogenically-driven impacts in sandy beach populations is stressed.

Do food availability, parasitism, and stress have synergistic effects on red colobus populations living in forest fragments?

PubMed

Chapman, Colin A; Wasserman, Michael D; Gillespie, Thomas R; Speirs, Michaela L; Lawes, Michael J; Saj, Tania L; Ziegler, Toni E

2006-12-01

Identifying factors that influence animal density is a fundamental goal in ecology that has taken on new importance with the need to develop informed management plans. This is particularly the case for primates as the tropical forest that supports many species is being rapidly converted. We use a system of forest fragments adjacent to Kibale National Park, Uganda, to examine if food availability and parasite infections have synergistic affects on red colobus (Piliocolobus tephrosceles) abundance. Given that the size of primate populations can often respond slowly to environmental changes, we also examined how these factors influenced cortisol levels. To meet these objectives, we monitored gastrointestinal parasites, evaluated fecal cortisol levels, and determined changes in food availability by conducting complete tree inventories in eight fragments in 2000 and 2003. Red colobus populations declined by an average of 21% among the fragments; however, population change ranged from a 25% increase to a 57% decline. The cumulative basal area of food trees declined by an average of 29.5%; however, forest change was highly variable (a 2% gain to a 71% decline). We found that nematode prevalence averaged 58% among fragments (range 29-83%). The change in colobus population size was correlated both with food availability and a number of indices of parasite infections. A path analysis suggests that change in food availability has a strong direct effect on population size, but it also has an indirect effect via parasite infections. 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Urban characteristics attributable to density-driven tie formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Wei; Ghoshal, Gourab; Krumme, Coco; Cebrian, Manuel; Pentland, Alex

2013-06-01

Motivated by empirical evidence on the interplay between geography, population density and societal interaction, we propose a generative process for the evolution of social structure in cities. Our analytical and simulation results predict both super-linear scaling of social-tie density and information contagion as a function of the population. Here we demonstrate that our model provides a robust and accurate fit for the dependency of city characteristics with city-size, ranging from individual-level dyadic interactions (number of acquaintances, volume of communication) to population level variables (contagious disease rates, patenting activity, economic productivity and crime) without the need to appeal to heterogeneity, modularity, specialization or hierarchy.

Effects of sources of variability on sample sizes required for RCTs, applied to trials of lipid-altering therapies on carotid artery intima-media thickness.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Koglin, Joerg; Bain, Raymond P; Pinto, Cathy-Anne; Mitchel, Yale B; Pasternak, Richard C; Sapre, Aditi

2009-08-01

Studies measuring progression of carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) have been used to estimate the effect of lipid-modifying therapies cardiovascular event risk. The likelihood that future cIMT clinical trials will detect a true treatment effect is estimated by leveraging results from prior studies. The present analyses assess the impact of between- and within-study variability based on currently published data from prior clinical studies on the likelihood that ongoing or future cIMT trials will detect the true treatment effect of lipid-modifying therapies. Published data from six contemporary cIMT studies (ASAP, ARBITER 2, RADIANCE 1, RADIANCE 2, ENHANCE, and METEOR) including data from a total of 3563 patients were examined. Bayesian and frequentist methods were used to assess the impact of between study variability on the likelihood of detecting true treatment effects on 1-year cIMT progression/regression and to provide a sample size estimate that would specifically compensate for the effect of between-study variability. In addition to the well-described within-study variability, there is considerable between-study variability associated with the measurement of annualized change in cIMT. Accounting for the additional between-study variability decreases the power for existing study designs. In order to account for the added between-study variability, it is likely that future cIMT studies would require a large increase in sample size in order to provide substantial probability (> or =90%) to have 90% power of detecting a true treatment effect.Limitation Analyses are based on study level data. Future meta-analyses incorporating patient-level data would be useful for confirmation. Due to substantial within- and between-study variability in the measure of 1-year change of cIMT, as well as uncertainty about progression rates in contemporary populations, future study designs evaluating the effect of new lipid-modifying therapies on atherosclerotic disease progression are likely to be challenged by large sample sizes in order to demonstrate a true treatment effect.

Karyotype and genome size of Iberochondrostoma almacai (Teleostei, Cyprinidae) and comparison with the sister-species I.lusitanicum

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

This study aimed to define the karyotype of the recently described Iberian endemic Iberochondrostoma almacai, to revisit the previously documented chromosome polymorphisms of its sister species I.lusitanicum using C-, Ag-/CMA3 and RE-banding, and to compare the two species genome sizes. A 2n = 50 karyotype (with the exception of a triploid I.lusitanicum specimen) and a corresponding haploid chromosome formula of 7M:15SM:3A (FN = 94) were found. Multiple NORs were observed in both species (in two submetacentric chromosome pairs, one of them clearly homologous) and a higher intra and interpopulational variability was evidenced in I.lusitanicum. Flow cytometry measurements of nuclear DNA content showed some significant differences in genome size both between and within species: the genome of I. almacai was smaller than that of I.lusitanicum (mean values 2.61 and 2.93 pg, respectively), which presented a clear interpopulational variability (mean values ranging from 2.72 to 3.00 pg). These data allowed the distinction of both taxa and confirmed the existence of two well differentiated groups within I. lusitanicum: one that includes the populations from the right bank of the Tejo and Samarra drainages, and another that reunites the southern populations. The peculiar differences between the two species, presently listed as “Critically Endangered”, reinforced the importance of this study for future conservation plans. PMID:21637679

[Consumption of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents in primary care in Costa Rica: changing patterns and geographical variability].

PubMed

Morera Salas, Melvin; Aparicio Llanos, Amada; Xirinachs Salazar, Yanira; Barber Pérez, Patricia

2007-01-01

To determine changing patterns and variability in consumption of classic nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) among the health areas in Costa Rica between 2000 and 2005. The drugs studied were ibuprofen, indomethacin, penicillamine, sulindac, tenoxicam, and diclofenac sodium. To measure consumption, we used the defined daily dose per 1,000 inhabitants per day (DID). To analyze variability, the coefficient of variation weighed by the population size (CVw), extremal ratio, interquartile ratio, dot plot and map graphs were used. From 2000-2005, NSAID consumption increased by 48% and the annual cost rose by 184%. The drugs with greatest consumption and participation in cost were sulindac and indomethacin. NSAID consumption varied between 0.1 and 61.8 DID according to health areas, with a CVw of 66.8%. Variability was greatest with penicillamine (CVw = 449.89%) and tenoxicam (CVw = 315.26%). Clearly differentiated geographical patterns in NSAID consumption were found in Costa Rica, with very different rates within the same region. According to the results obtained, two factors associated with this variability were the supply of health services and the percentage of the population aged 65 years or more within the catchment area.

Time trends and determinants of completed family size in a rural community from the Basque area of Spain (1800-1969).

PubMed

Alfonso-Sánchez, Miguel A; Peña, José A; Calderón, Rosario

2003-10-01

The focus of this work is the analysis of changes in completed family size and possible determinants of that size over time, in an attempt to characterize the evolution of reproductive patterns during the demographic transition. With this purpose in mind, time trends are studied in relation to the mean number of live births per family (as an indirect measure of fertility), using family reconstitution techniques to trace the reproductive history of each married woman. The population surveyed is a Spanish rural community called Lanciego, located at the southern end of the province of Alava (Basque Country). A total of 24,510 parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials made between 1800 and 1969 were examined to obtain the demographic data set. For each reconstituted family, the variables included in the study were the number of live births per family or family size (FAMS), year of marriage (YEAR), age at marriage of both partners (AMAN, AWOM), wife's age at the end of marriage (WEND), duration of marriage (MARD), age at first maternity (A1CH), length of reproductive span (REPS) and number of children dying before their first anniversary (MINF). Through a principal component analysis, three factors were found that explained more than 75% of the total variance. Association of variables in factors I and III was particularly useful in characterizing the variability of mean family size in pre-transitional, transitional and post-transitional cohorts. During demographic transition, a decreasing trend is observed in the variables FAMS, REPS and MINF, while variables AWOM, AMAN, WEND and A1CH show a tendency to increase over the 20th century. Results obtained by multiple regression analysis confirm that the best predictors of family size (dependent variable) were REPS and MINF, which between them explained over 85% of the total variation in FAMS (R2 = 0.853). In Lanciego, birth control seems to be present on the evidence of an increase in age at first maternity and a decrease in age at last parturition, indicating that the beginning of the reproductive span is delayed and its end is brought forward. Interaction between family size and infant mortality is discussed in the light of various hypotheses, including replacement of descendants, the so-called biological effect and the theory of r and k selection.

Linking vital rates to invasiveness of a perennial herb.

PubMed

Ramula, Satu

2014-04-01

Invaders generally show better individual performance than non-invaders and, therefore, vital rates (survival, growth, fecundity) could potentially be used to predict species invasiveness outside their native range. Comparative studies have usually correlated vital rates with the invasiveness status of species, while few studies have investigated them in relation to population growth rate. Here, I examined the influence of five vital rates (plant establishment, survival, growth, flowering probability, seed production) and their variability (across geographic regions, habitat types, population sizes and population densities) on population growth rate (λ) using data from 37 populations of an invasive, iteroparous herb (Lupinus polyphyllus) in a part of its invaded range in Finland. Variation in vital rates was often related to habitat type and population density. The performance of the populations varied from declining to rapidly increasing independently of habitat type, population size or population density, but differed between regions. The population growth rate increased linearly with plant establishment, and with the survival and growth of vegetative individuals, while the survival of flowering individuals and annual seed production were not related to λ. The vital rates responsible for rapid population growth varied among populations. These findings highlight the importance of both regional and local conditions to plant population dynamics, demonstrating that individual vital rates do not necessarily correlate with λ. Therefore, to understand the role of individual vital rates in a species ability to invade, it is necessary to quantify their effect on population growth rate.

Mesoscale spatial variability of selected aquatic invertebrate community metrics from a minimally impaired stream segment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebler, J.B.

2004-01-01

The related topics of spatial variability of aquatic invertebrate community metrics, implications of spatial patterns of metric values to distributions of aquatic invertebrate communities, and ramifications of natural variability to the detection of human perturbations were investigated. Four metrics commonly used for stream assessment were computed for 9 stream reaches within a fairly homogeneous, minimally impaired stream segment of the San Pedro River, Arizona. Metric variability was assessed for differing sampling scenarios using simple permutation procedures. Spatial patterns of metric values suggest that aquatic invertebrate communities are patchily distributed on subsegment and segment scales, which causes metric variability. Wide ranges of metric values resulted in wide ranges of metric coefficients of variation (CVs) and minimum detectable differences (MDDs), and both CVs and MDDs often increased as sample size (number of reaches) increased, suggesting that any particular set of sampling reaches could yield misleading estimates of population parameters and effects that can be detected. Mean metric variabilities were substantial, with the result that only fairly large differences in metrics would be declared significant at ?? = 0.05 and ?? = 0.20. The number of reaches required to obtain MDDs of 10% and 20% varied with significance level and power, and differed for different metrics, but were generally large, ranging into tens and hundreds of reaches. Study results suggest that metric values from one or a small number of stream reach(es) may not be adequate to represent a stream segment, depending on effect sizes of interest, and that larger sample sizes are necessary to obtain reasonable estimates of metrics and sample statistics. For bioassessment to progress, spatial variability may need to be investigated in many systems and should be considered when designing studies and interpreting data.

Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muñoz, David J.; Miller Hesed, Kyle; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Miller, David A.W.

2016-01-01

Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.

A Parametric Model of Shoulder Articulation for Virtual Assessment of Space Suit Fit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Karen; Kim, Han; Bernal, Yaritza; Vu, Linh; Boppana, Adhi; Benson, Elizabeth; Jarvis, Sarah; Rajulu, Sudhakar

2016-01-01

Goal of space human factors analyses: Place the highly variable human body within these restrictive physical environments to ensure that the entire anticipated population can live, work, and interact. Space suits are a very restrictive space and if not properly sized can result in pain or injury. The highly dynamic motions performed while wearing a space suit often make it difficult to model. Limited human body models do not have much allowance for customization of anthropometry and representation of the population that may wear a space suit.

Mechanism-Based Design for High-Temperature, High-Performance Composites. Book 3.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-01

l(e-ß):(e-ß)--4(e:ß) 2 = el3 + -4(en-e33f, (77) 7 2 = 62:a-(e:a)2 = e?2 + 4, (78) where n = e2, ß = I-nn = eiei +e3e3, and the Cartesian...relation, the particles most susceptible to fracture are those at the larger size range of the population . Thus, with increasing standard deviation of...strength variability is associated exclusively with a single population of flaws. The second is based on comparisons of mean strengths of two or more

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Scaling Properties of Human Settlements (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, C.; Milesi, C.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.; Henebry, G. M.; Nghiem, S. V.

2013-12-01

Growth and evolution of cities and smaller settlements is usually studied in the context of population and other socioeconomic variables. While this is logical in the sense that settlements are groups of humans engaged in socioeconomic processes, our means of collecting information about spatio-temporal distributions of population and socioeconomic variables often lack the spatial and temporal resolution to represent the processes at scales which they are known to occur. Furthermore, metrics and definitions often vary with country and through time. However, remote sensing provides globally consistent, synoptic observations of several proxies for human settlement at spatial and temporal resolutions sufficient to represent the evolution of settlements over the past 40 years. We use several independent but complementary proxies for anthropogenic land cover to quantify spatio-temporal (ST) evolution and scaling properties of human settlements globally. In this study we begin by comparing land cover and night lights in 8 diverse settings - each spanning gradients of population density and degree of land surface modification. Stable anthropogenic night light is derived from multi-temporal composites of emitted luminance measured by the VIIRS and DMSP-OLS sensors. Land cover is represented as mixtures of sub-pixel fractions of rock, soil and impervious Substrates, Vegetation and Dark surfaces (shadow, water and absorptive materials) estimated from Landsat imagery with > 94% accuracy. Multi-season stability and variability of land cover fractions effectively distinguishes between spectrally similar land covers that corrupt thematic classifications based on single images. We find that temporal stability of impervious substrates combined with persistent shadow cast between buildings results in temporally stable aggregate reflectance across seasons at the 30 m scale of a Landsat pixel. Comparison of night light brightness with land cover composition, stability and variability yields several consistent relationships that persist across a variety of settlement types and physical environments. We use the multiple threshold method of Small et al (2011) to represent a continuum of settlement density by segmenting both night light brightness and multi-season land cover characteristics. Rank-size distributions of spatially contiguous segments quantify scaling and connectivity of land cover. Spatial and temporal evolution of rank-size distributions is consistent with power laws as suggested by Zipf's Law for city size based on population. However, unlike Zipf's Law, the observed distributions persist to global scales in which the larger agglomerations are much larger than individual cities. The scaling relations observed extend from the scale of cities and smaller settlements up to vast spatial networks of interconnected settlements.

CYP2D6 variability in populations from Venezuela.

PubMed

Moreno, Nancy; Flores-Angulo, Carlos; Villegas, Cecilia; Mora, Yuselin

2016-12-01

CYP2D6 is an important cytochrome P450 enzyme that plays an important role in the metabolism of about 25% of currently prescribed drugs. The presence of polymorphisms in the CYP2D6 gene may modulate enzyme level and activity, thereby affecting individual responses to pharmacological treatments. The most prevalent diseases in the admixed population from Venezuela are cardiovascular and cancer, whereas viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases, particularly malaria, are prevalent in Amerindian populations; in the treatment of these diseases, several drugs that are metabolized by CYP2D6 are used. In this work, we reviewed the data on CYP2D6 variability and predicted metabolizer phenotypes, in healthy volunteers of two admixed and five Amerindian populations from Venezuela. The Venezuelan population is very heterogeneous as a result of the genetic admixture of three major ethnical components: Europeans, Africans and Amerindians. There are noticeable inter-regional and inter-population differences in the process of mixing of this population. Hitherto, there are few published studies in Venezuela on CYP2D6; therefore, it is necessary to increase research in this regard, in particular to develop studies with a larger sample size. There is a considerable amount of work remaining before CYP2D6 is integrated into clinical practice in Venezuela.

Complex spatial dynamics maintain northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) genetic diversity in a temporally varying landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Chen, Yongjiu; Stockwell, Craig A.

2013-01-01

In contrast to most local amphibian populations, northeastern populations of the Northern Leopard Frog (Lithobates pipiens) have displayed uncharacteristically high levels of genetic diversity that have been attributed to large, stable populations. However, this widely distributed species also occurs in areas known for great climatic fluctuations that should be reflected in corresponding fluctuations in population sizes and reduced genetic diversity. To test our hypothesis that Northern Leopard Frog genetic diversity would be reduced in areas subjected to significant climate variability, we examined the genetic diversity of L. pipiens collected from 12 sites within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota. Despite the region's fluctuating climate that includes periods of recurring drought and deluge, we found unexpectedly high levels of genetic diversity approaching that of northeastern populations. Further, genetic structure at a landscape scale was strikingly homogeneous; genetic differentiation estimates (Dest) averaged 0.10 (SD = 0.036) across the six microsatellite loci we studied, and two Bayesian assignment tests (STRUCTURE and BAPS) failed to reveal the development of significant population structure across the 68 km breadth of our study area. These results suggest that L. pipiens in the Prairie Pothole Region consists of a large, panmictic population capable of maintaining high genetic diversity in the face of marked climate variability.

Population genomics provide insights into the evolution and adaptation of the eastern honey bee (Apis cerana).

PubMed

Chen, Chao; Wang, Huihua; Liu, Zhiguang; Chen, Xiao; Tang, Jiao; Meng, Fanming; Shi, Wei

2018-06-20

The mechanisms by which organisms adapt to variable environments are a fundamental question in evolutionary biology and are important to protect important species in response to a changing climate. An interesting candidate to study this question is the honey bee Apis cerana, a keystone pollinator with a wide distribution throughout a large variety of climates, that exhibits rapid dispersal. Here, we re-sequenced the genome of 180 A. cerana individuals from eighteen populations throughout China. Using a population genomics approach, we observed considerable genetic variation in A. cerana. Patterns of genetic differentiation indicate high divergence at the subspecies level, and physical barriers rather than distance are the driving force for population divergence. Estimations of divergence time suggested that the main branches diverged between 300 and 500 ka. Analyses of the population history revealed a substantial influence of the Earth's climate on the effective population size of A. cerana, as increased population sizes were observed during warmer periods. Further analyses identified candidate genes under natural selection that are potentially related to honey bee cognition, temperature adaptation, and olfactory. Based on our results, A. cerana may have great potential in response to climate change. Our study provides fundamental knowledge of the evolution and adaptation of A. cerana.

Order of events matter: comparing discrete models for optimal control of species augmentation.

PubMed

Bodine, Erin N; Gross, Louis J; Lenhart, Suzanne

2012-01-01

We investigate optimal timing of augmentation of an endangered/threatened species population in a target region by moving individuals from a reserve or captive population. This is formulated as a discrete-time optimal control problem in which augmentation occurs once per time period over a fixed number of time periods. The population model assumes the Allee effect growth functions in both target and reserve populations and the control objective is to maximize the target and reserve population sizes over the time horizon while accounting for costs of augmentation. Two possible orders of events are considered for different life histories of the species relative to augmentation time: move individuals either before or after population growth occurs. The control variable is the proportion of the reserve population to be moved to the target population. We develop solutions and illustrate numerical results which indicate circumstances for which optimal augmentation strategies depend upon the order of events.

Lowered Diversity and Increased Inbreeding Depression within Peripheral Populations of Wild Rice Oryza rufipogon.

PubMed

Gao, Li-Zhi; Gao, Cheng-Wen

2016-01-01

The distribution of genetic variability from the interior towards the periphery of a species' range is of great interest to evolutionary biologists. Although it has been long presumed that population genetic variation should decrease as a species' range is approached, results of empirical investigations still remain ambiguous. Knowledge regarding patterns of genetic variability as well as affected factors is particularly not conclusive in plants. To determine genetic divergence in peripheral populations of the wild rice Oryza rufipogon Griff. from China, genetic diversity and population structure were studied in five northern & northeastern peripheral and 16 central populations using six microsatellite loci. We found that populations resided at peripheries of the species possessed markedly decreased microsatellite diversity than those located in its center. Population size was observed to be positively correlated with microsatellite diversity. Moreover, there are significantly positive correlations between levels of microsatellite diversity and distances from the northern and northeastern periphery of this species. To investigate genetic structure and heterozygosity variation between generations of O. rufipogon, a total of 2382 progeny seeds from 186 maternal families were further assayed from three peripheral and central populations, respectively. Peripheral populations exhibited significantly lower levels of heterozygosities than central populations for both seed and maternal generations. In comparisons with maternal samples, significantly low observed heterozygosity (HO) and high heterozygote deficit within populations (FIS) values were detected in seed samples from both peripheral and central populations. Significantly lower observed heterozygosity (HO) and higher FIS values were further observed in peripheral populations than those in central populations for seed samples. The results indicate an excess of homozygotes and thus high inbreeding depression in peripheral populations. Our results together suggest that historical contraction of geographical range, demographic changes, and environmental conditions near the northern and northeastern margins of O. rufipogon favor inbreeding and possibly selfing, leading to the rapidly decreased effective population size. Genetic drift, reduced gene flow, and possible local selection, consequently lead to lowered gene diversity, accelerated genetic divergence and increased inbreeding depression found in peripheral populations of O. rufipogon. Given these characteristics observed, northern and northeastern peripheral populations deserve relatively different conservation strategies for either germplasm sampling of ex situ conservation or setting in situ reserves for the adaptation to possible environmental changes and the future germplasm utilization of wild rice.

Seasonal and interpopulational variability in fecundity, egg size, and elemental composition (CHN) of eggs and larvae in a grapsoid crab, Chasmagnathus granulatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bas, Claudia C.; Spivak, Eduardo D.; Anger, Klaus

2007-12-01

Reproductive traits at the beginning and the end of the annual reproductive season were compared between two populations of the intertidal crab Chasmagnathus granulatus living in ecologically contrasting habitats: (1) Mar Chiquita (MC) (37°45'S, 57°19'W), a highly productive estuarine coastal lagoon with strong salinity fluctuations. (2) San Antonio Bay (SA) (40°46'S, 64°50'), a physically stable but less productive coastal marine environment. Number, size, and elemental composition (CHN) of eggs and larvae differed significantly between populations. Regardless of the season, more but smaller eggs and larvae were produced in MC, while eggs and larvae from SA revealed higher dry mass and C/N ratios indicating higher lipid content. A latitudinal temperature gradient cannot explain these patterns, suggesting that other environmental factors including salinity, quality or quantity of benthic food sources and productivity may be responsible. In both populations, fecundity and biomass per egg were higher at the beginning as compared to the end of the reproductive season. As a consequence, the reproductive effort was consistently maximal at the beginning of the season. At MC, also variability was found between two successive years. Intraspecific (both interpopulational and seasonal) variations in reproductive and developmental traits may be important for the formation of physiologically different metapopulations along the wide geographic range of C. granulatus.

[Use of emergency departments in rural and urban areas in Spain].

PubMed

Sarría-Santamera, A; Prado-Galbarro, J; Ramallo-Farina, Y; Quintana-Díaz, M; Martínez-Virto, A; Serrano-Aguilar, P

2015-03-01

Describe the use of emergency departments (ED), and analyse the differences in use between residents in rural and urban areas. Using data from the National Health Survey of 2006 and 2011, the profiles of patients with ED visits by population size of place of residence were obtained. The variables associated with making one visit to the ED were also evaluated, in order to determine the effect of the population size of place of residence. A higher use of ED is observed in persons with a higher frequency of use of Primary Care and hospital admissions, and increases with worse self-perceived health and functional status, with more chronic diseases, in people from lower social classes, and younger ages. Adjusting for the other variables, residents in larger cities have a higher use of ED than residents in rural areas, who show a higher use of public and non-hospital based ED, than residents in urban areas. There is a higher use of ED by inhabitants of urban areas that cannot be justified by a worst health status of that population. This tends to indicate that the use of ED is not under-used in rural areas, but overused in urban areas. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Life history correlates of adult size in the malaria vector Anopheles darlingi.

PubMed

Lounibos, L P; Nishimura, N; Conn, J; Lourenço-de-Oliveira, R

1995-01-01

Adult dry weights of laboratory-reared Anopheles darlingi were highly correlated with wing lengths, which were used to estimate size variation in natural populations of this species. Significant differences in mean wing lengths of females trapped at baits were detected among collections in the same week at one site, but not between three sites in Brazil and Bolivia. Relatively higher variability of wing lengths, compared to collections of other Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus), and platykurtic size distributions in large, single-night collections suggested that An. darlingi females caught at baits emerged from heterogenous larval habitats. No relationship was detected between parous state and the body size of wild-caught females. Adult males and females of laboratory-reared An. darlingi did not differ in body size. This absence of sexual size dimorphism is rare among mosquitoes and has not been noted previously in the genus Anopheles.

Factors determining waste generation in Spanish towns and cities.

PubMed

Prades, Miriam; Gallardo, Antonio; Ibàñez, Maria Victoria

2015-01-01

This paper analyzes the generation and composition of municipal solid waste in Spanish towns and cities with more than 5000 inhabitants, which altogether account for 87% of the Spanish population. To do so, the total composition and generation of municipal solid waste fractions were obtained from 135 towns and cities. Homogeneity tests revealed heterogeneity in the proportions of municipal solid waste fractions from one city to another. Statistical analyses identified significant differences in the generation of glass in cities of different sizes and in the generation of all fractions depending on the hydrographic area. Finally, linear regression models and residuals analysis were applied to analyze the effect of different demographic, geographic, and socioeconomic variables on the generation of waste fractions. The conclusions show that more densely populated towns, a hydrographic area, and cities with over 50,000 inhabitants have higher waste generation rates, while certain socioeconomic variables (people/car) decrease that generation. Other socioeconomic variables (foreigners and unemployment) show a positive and null influence on that waste generation, respectively.

From innervation density to tactile acuity: 1. Spatial representation.

PubMed

Brown, Paul B; Koerber, H Richard; Millecchia, Ronald

2004-06-11

We tested the hypothesis that the population receptive field representation (a superposition of the excitatory receptive field areas of cells responding to a tactile stimulus) provides spatial information sufficient to mediate one measure of static tactile acuity. In psychophysical tests, two-point discrimination thresholds on the hindlimbs of adult cats varied as a function of stimulus location and orientation, as they do in humans. A statistical model of the excitatory low threshold mechanoreceptive fields of spinocervical, postsynaptic dorsal column and spinothalamic tract neurons was used to simulate the population receptive field representations in this neural population of the one- and two-point stimuli used in the psychophysical experiments. The simulated and observed thresholds were highly correlated. Simulated and observed thresholds' relations to physiological and anatomical variables such as stimulus location and orientation, receptive field size and shape, map scale, and innervation density were strikingly similar. Simulated and observed threshold variations with receptive field size and map scale obeyed simple relationships predicted by the signal detection model, and were statistically indistinguishable from each other. The population receptive field representation therefore contains information sufficient for this discrimination.

Improving inferences in population studies of rare species that are detected imperfectly

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Sutton, N.; Kawanishi, K.; Bailey, L.L.

2005-01-01

For the vast majority of cases, it is highly unlikely that all the individuals of a population will be encountered during a study. Furthermore, it is unlikely that a constant fraction of the population is encountered over times, locations, or species to be compared. Hence, simple counts usually will not be good indices of population size. We recommend that detection probabilities (the probability of including an individual in a count) be estimated and incorporated into inference procedures. However, most techniques for estimating detection probability require moderate sample sizes, which may not be achievable when studying rare species. In order to improve the reliability of inferences from studies of rare species, we suggest two general approaches that researchers may wish to consider that incorporate the concept of imperfect detectability: (1) borrowing information about detectability or the other quantities of interest from other times, places, or species; and (2) using state variables other than abundance (e.g., species richness and occupancy). We illustrate these suggestions with examples and discuss the relative benefits and drawbacks of each approach.

Effects of resource-dependent cannibalism on population size distribution and individual life history in a case-bearing caddisfly

PubMed Central

Okuda, Noboru

2018-01-01

Resource availability often determines the intensity of cannibalism, which has a considerable effect on population size distribution and individual life history. Larvae of the caddisfly Psilotreta kisoensis build portable cases from sedimentary sands and often display cannibalism. For this species, the availability of preferable case material is a critical factor that affects larval fitness, and material is locally variable depending on the underlying geology. In this study, we investigated how sand quality as a case material determines cannibalism frequency among larvae and, in turn, how the differential cannibalism frequency affects the body-size distribution and voltinism. Rearing experiments within a cohort revealed that a bimodal size distribution developed regardless of material quality. However, as the preferable material became abundant, the proportion of larger to smaller individuals increased. Consecutive experiments suggested that smaller larvae were more frequently cannibalized by larger ones and excluded from the population when preferable smooth material was abundant. This frequent cannibalism resulted in a bimodal size distribution with a significantly higher proportion of larger compared to smaller individuals. The size-dependent cannibalism was significantly suppressed when the larvae were raised in an environment with a scarcity of the preferable case material. This is probably because larvae cannot enjoy the benefit of rapid growth by cannibalism due to the difficulties in enlarging their case. At low cannibalism the growth of smaller individuals was stunted, and this was probably due to risk of cannibalism by larger individuals. This growth reduction in small individuals led to a bimodal size-distribution but with a lower proportion of larger to smaller individuals compared to at high cannibalism. A field study in two streams showed a similar size distribution of larvae as was found in the rearing experiment. The bimodal ratio has consequences for life history, since a size-bimodal population causes a cohort splitting: only larvae that were fully grown at 1 year had a univoltine life cycle, whereas larvae with a stunted growth continued their larval life for another year (semivoltine). This study suggests that availability of preferable case building material is an important factor that affects cannibalism, which in turn affects larval population size structure and cohort splitting. PMID:29466375

Effects of resource-dependent cannibalism on population size distribution and individual life history in a case-bearing caddisfly.

PubMed

Okano, Jun-Ichi; Okuda, Noboru

2018-01-01

Resource availability often determines the intensity of cannibalism, which has a considerable effect on population size distribution and individual life history. Larvae of the caddisfly Psilotreta kisoensis build portable cases from sedimentary sands and often display cannibalism. For this species, the availability of preferable case material is a critical factor that affects larval fitness, and material is locally variable depending on the underlying geology. In this study, we investigated how sand quality as a case material determines cannibalism frequency among larvae and, in turn, how the differential cannibalism frequency affects the body-size distribution and voltinism. Rearing experiments within a cohort revealed that a bimodal size distribution developed regardless of material quality. However, as the preferable material became abundant, the proportion of larger to smaller individuals increased. Consecutive experiments suggested that smaller larvae were more frequently cannibalized by larger ones and excluded from the population when preferable smooth material was abundant. This frequent cannibalism resulted in a bimodal size distribution with a significantly higher proportion of larger compared to smaller individuals. The size-dependent cannibalism was significantly suppressed when the larvae were raised in an environment with a scarcity of the preferable case material. This is probably because larvae cannot enjoy the benefit of rapid growth by cannibalism due to the difficulties in enlarging their case. At low cannibalism the growth of smaller individuals was stunted, and this was probably due to risk of cannibalism by larger individuals. This growth reduction in small individuals led to a bimodal size-distribution but with a lower proportion of larger to smaller individuals compared to at high cannibalism. A field study in two streams showed a similar size distribution of larvae as was found in the rearing experiment. The bimodal ratio has consequences for life history, since a size-bimodal population causes a cohort splitting: only larvae that were fully grown at 1 year had a univoltine life cycle, whereas larvae with a stunted growth continued their larval life for another year (semivoltine). This study suggests that availability of preferable case building material is an important factor that affects cannibalism, which in turn affects larval population size structure and cohort splitting.

Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a stochastic serially correlated environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, D.R.

1974-01-01

Optimal exploitation strategies were studied for an animal population in a stochastic, serially correlated environment. This is a general case and encompasses a number of important cases as simplifications. Data on the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) were used to explore the exploitation strategies and test several hypotheses because relatively much is known concerning the life history and general ecology of this species and extensive empirical data are available for analysis. The number of small ponds on the central breeding grounds was used as an index to the state of the environment. Desirable properties of an optimal exploitation strategy were defined. A mathematical model was formulated to provide a synthesis of the existing literature, estimates of parameters developed from an analysis of data, and hypotheses regarding the specific effect of exploitation on total survival. Both the literature and the analysis of data were inconclusive concerning the effect of exploitation on survival. Therefore, alternative hypotheses were formulated: (1) exploitation mortality represents a largely additive form of mortality, or (2 ) exploitation mortality is compensatory with other forms of mortality, at least to some threshold level. Models incorporating these two hypotheses were formulated as stochastic dynamic programming models and optimal exploitation strategies were derived numerically on a digital computer. Optimal exploitation strategies were found to exist under rather general conditions. Direct feedback control was an integral component in the optimal decision-making process. Optimal exploitation was found to be substantially different depending upon the hypothesis regarding the effect of exploitation on the population. Assuming that exploitation is largely an additive force of mortality, optimal exploitation decisions are a convex function of the size of the breeding population and a linear or slightly concave function of the environmental conditions. Optimal exploitation under this hypothesis tends to reduce the variance of the size of the population. Under the hypothesis of compensatory mortality forces, optimal exploitation decisions are approximately linearly related to the size of the breeding population. Environmental variables may be somewhat more important than the size of the breeding population to the production of young mallards. In contrast, the size of the breeding population appears to be more important in the exploitation process than is the state of the environment. The form of the exploitation strategy appears to be relatively insensitive to small changes in the production rate. In general, the relative importance of the size of the breeding population may decrease as fecundity increases. The optimal level of exploitation in year t must be based on the observed size of the population and the state of the environment in year t unless the dynamics of the population, the state of the environment, and the result of the exploitation decisions are completely deterministic. Exploitation based on an average harvest, harvest rate, or designed to maintain a constant breeding population size is inefficient.

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2008-01-01

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall.Synthesis. Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.

Effects of weather on the abundance and distribution on populations of 103 breeding bird species across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allstadt, A. J.; Gorzo, J.; Bateman, B. L.; Heglund, P. J.; Pidgeon, A. M.; Thogmartin, W.; Vavrus, S. J.; Radeloff, V.

2016-12-01

Often, fewer birds are often observed in an area experiencing extreme weather, as local populations tend to leave an area (via out-migration or concentration in refugia) or experience a change in population size (via mortality or reduced fecundity). Further, weather patterns are often coherent over large areas so unsuitable weather may threaten large portions of an entire species range simultaneously. However, beyond a few iconic irruptive species, rarely have studies applied both the necessary scale and sensitivity required to assess avian population responses over entire species range. Here, we examined the effects of pre-breeding season weather on the distribution and abundances of 103 North American bird species from the late 1966-2010 using observed abundance records from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared abundances with measures of drought and temperature over each species' range, and with three atmospheric teleconnections that describe large-scale circulation patterns influencing conditions on the ground. More than 90% of the species responded to at least one of our five weather variables. Grassland bird species tended to be most responsive to weather conditions and forest birds the least, though we found relations among all habitat types. For most species, the response was movement rather than large effects on the overall population size. Maps of these responses indicate that concentration and out-migration are both common strategies for coping with challenging weather conditions across a species range. The dynamic distribution of many bird species makes clear the need to account for temporal variability in conservation planning, as areas that are less important for a species' breeding success in most years may be very important in years with abnormal weather conditions.

Population extinction under bursty reproduction in a time-modulated environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilk, Ohad; Assaf, Michael

2018-06-01

In recent years nondemographic variability has been shown to greatly affect dynamics of stochastic populations. For example, nondemographic noise in the form of a bursty reproduction process with an a priori unknown burst size, or environmental variability in the form of time-varying reaction rates, have been separately found to dramatically impact the extinction risk of isolated populations. In this work we investigate the extinction risk of an isolated population under the combined influence of these two types of nondemographic variation. Using the so-called momentum-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approach and accounting for the explicit time dependence in the reaction rates, we arrive at a set of time-dependent Hamilton equations. To this end, we evaluate the population's extinction risk by finding the instanton of the time-perturbed Hamiltonian numerically, whereas analytical expressions are presented in particular limits using various perturbation techniques. We focus on two classes of time-varying environments: periodically varying rates corresponding to seasonal effects and a sudden decrease in the birth rate corresponding to a catastrophe. All our theoretical results are tested against numerical Monte Carlo simulations with time-dependent rates and also against a numerical solution of the corresponding time-dependent Hamilton equations.

Genetic variability in the Guahibo population from Venezuela.

PubMed

Moral, Pedro; Marini, Elisabetta; Esteban, Esther; Mameli, Giuseppa Elisa; Succa, Valeria; Vona, Giuseppe

2002-01-01

Four communities from Guahibo of Venezuela were analyzed for the genetic variants of nine erythrocyte enzymes and five serum proteins. Of the 14 loci determined, four were monomorphic. Significant frequency differentiation among communities, was present for ESD and TF markers. In general, Guahibo allele frequencies are in the variation ranges described for South American groups. The analysis indicates a relatively higher affinity of Guahibos with other Venezuelan groups within an irregular pattern of genetic distances that are likely related to the complex demographic history of the South American groups. Genetic diversity estimates reveal a moderate degree of genetic structure between the four Guahibo communities. This intra-tribal variability in Guahibo appears to be lower than in Venezuelan Piaroa but higher than in other Amerindians and could be attributed to a combined effect of low population size and relative isolation of communities. At a continental level, the distribution of genetic diversity is consistent with preferential population movements along the eastern and western coastal areas.

Evaluation of tools for highly variable gene discovery from single-cell RNA-seq data.

PubMed

Yip, Shun H; Sham, Pak Chung; Wang, Junwen

2018-02-21

Traditional RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) allows the detection of gene expression variations between two or more cell populations through differentially expressed gene (DEG) analysis. However, genes that contribute to cell-to-cell differences are not discoverable with RNA-seq because RNA-seq samples are obtained from a mixture of cells. Single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) allows the detection of gene expression in each cell. With scRNA-seq, highly variable gene (HVG) discovery allows the detection of genes that contribute strongly to cell-to-cell variation within a homogeneous cell population, such as a population of embryonic stem cells. This analysis is implemented in many software packages. In this study, we compare seven HVG methods from six software packages, including BASiCS, Brennecke, scLVM, scran, scVEGs and Seurat. Our results demonstrate that reproducibility in HVG analysis requires a larger sample size than DEG analysis. Discrepancies between methods and potential issues in these tools are discussed and recommendations are made.

Insecticide resistance and nutrition interactively shape life-history parameters in German cockroaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Kim; Ko, Alexander E.; Schal, Coby; Silverman, Jules

2016-06-01

Fitness-related costs of evolving insecticide resistance have been reported in a number of insect species, but the interplay between evolutionary adaptation to insecticide pressure and variable environmental conditions has received little attention. We provisioned nymphs from three German cockroach (Blattella germanica L.) populations, which differed in insecticide resistance, with either nutritionally rich or poor (diluted) diet throughout their development. One population was an insecticide-susceptible laboratory strain; the other two populations originated from a field-collected indoxacarb-resistant population, which upon collection was maintained either with or without further selection with indoxacarb. We then measured development time, survival to the adult stage, adult body size, and results of a challenge with indoxacarb. Our results show that indoxacarb resistance and poor nutritional condition increased development time and lowered adult body size, with reinforcing interactions. We also found lower survival to the adult stage in the indoxacarb-selected population, which was exacerbated by poor nutrition. In addition, nutrition imparted a highly significant effect on indoxacarb susceptibility. This study exemplifies how poor nutritional condition can aggravate the life-history costs of resistance and elevate the detrimental effects of insecticide exposure, demonstrating how environmental conditions and resistance may interactively impact individual fitness and insecticide efficacy.

Distribution and Numbers of Pygmies in Central African Forests

PubMed Central

Olivero, Jesús; Fa, John E.; Farfán, Miguel A.; Lewis, Jerome; Hewlett, Barry; Breuer, Thomas; Carpaneto, Giuseppe M.; Fernández, María; Germi, Francesco; Hattori, Shiho; Head, Josephine; Ichikawa, Mitsuo; Kitanaishi, Koichi; Knights, Jessica; Matsuura, Naoki; Migliano, Andrea; Nese, Barbara; Noss, Andrew; Ekoumou, Dieudonné Ongbwa; Paulin, Pascale; Real, Raimundo; Riddell, Mike; Stevenson, Edward G. J.; Toda, Mikako; Vargas, J. Mario; Yasuoka, Hirokazu; Nasi, Robert

2016-01-01

Pygmy populations occupy a vast territory extending west-to-east along the central African belt from the Congo Basin to Lake Victoria. However, their numbers and actual distribution is not known precisely. Here, we undertake this task by using locational data and population sizes for an unprecedented number of known Pygmy camps and settlements (n = 654) in five of the nine countries where currently distributed. With these data we develop spatial distribution models based on the favourability function, which distinguish areas with favourable environmental conditions from those less suitable for Pygmy presence. Highly favourable areas were significantly explained by presence of tropical forests, and by lower human pressure variables. For documented Pygmy settlements, we use the relationship between observed population sizes and predicted favourability values to estimate the total Pygmy population throughout Central Africa. We estimate that around 920,000 Pygmies (over 60% in DRC) is possible within favourable forest areas in Central Africa. We argue that fragmentation of the existing Pygmy populations, alongside pressure from extractive industries and sometimes conflict with conservation areas, endanger their future. There is an urgent need to inform policies that can mitigate against future external threats to these indigenous peoples’ culture and lifestyles. PMID:26735953

Distribution and Numbers of Pygmies in Central African Forests.

PubMed

Olivero, Jesús; Fa, John E; Farfán, Miguel A; Lewis, Jerome; Hewlett, Barry; Breuer, Thomas; Carpaneto, Giuseppe M; Fernández, María; Germi, Francesco; Hattori, Shiho; Head, Josephine; Ichikawa, Mitsuo; Kitanaishi, Koichi; Knights, Jessica; Matsuura, Naoki; Migliano, Andrea; Nese, Barbara; Noss, Andrew; Ekoumou, Dieudonné Ongbwa; Paulin, Pascale; Real, Raimundo; Riddell, Mike; Stevenson, Edward G J; Toda, Mikako; Vargas, J Mario; Yasuoka, Hirokazu; Nasi, Robert

2016-01-01

Pygmy populations occupy a vast territory extending west-to-east along the central African belt from the Congo Basin to Lake Victoria. However, their numbers and actual distribution is not known precisely. Here, we undertake this task by using locational data and population sizes for an unprecedented number of known Pygmy camps and settlements (n = 654) in five of the nine countries where currently distributed. With these data we develop spatial distribution models based on the favourability function, which distinguish areas with favourable environmental conditions from those less suitable for Pygmy presence. Highly favourable areas were significantly explained by presence of tropical forests, and by lower human pressure variables. For documented Pygmy settlements, we use the relationship between observed population sizes and predicted favourability values to estimate the total Pygmy population throughout Central Africa. We estimate that around 920,000 Pygmies (over 60% in DRC) is possible within favourable forest areas in Central Africa. We argue that fragmentation of the existing Pygmy populations, alongside pressure from extractive industries and sometimes conflict with conservation areas, endanger their future. There is an urgent need to inform policies that can mitigate against future external threats to these indigenous peoples' culture and lifestyles.

Spatial climate patterns explain negligible variation in strength of compensatory density feedbacks in birds and mammals.

PubMed

Herrando-Pérez, Salvador; Delean, Steven; Brook, Barry W; Cassey, Phillip; Bradshaw, Corey J A

2014-01-01

The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease) might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length) and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate--at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools, the appropriate data have not yet been gathered for most species, meaning that we cannot yet make any robust generalisations about how demographic feedbacks interact with climate.

Spatial Climate Patterns Explain Negligible Variation in Strength of Compensatory Density Feedbacks in Birds and Mammals

PubMed Central

Herrando-Pérez, Salvador; Delean, Steven; Brook, Barry W.; Cassey, Phillip; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.

2014-01-01

The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease) might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length) and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate – at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools, the appropriate data have not yet been gathered for most species, meaning that we cannot yet make any robust generalisations about how demographic feedbacks interact with climate. PMID:24618822

Application of Response Surface Methods To Determine Conditions for Optimal Genomic Prediction

PubMed Central

Howard, Réka; Carriquiry, Alicia L.; Beavis, William D.

2017-01-01

An epistatic genetic architecture can have a significant impact on prediction accuracies of genomic prediction (GP) methods. Machine learning methods predict traits comprised of epistatic genetic architectures more accurately than statistical methods based on additive mixed linear models. The differences between these types of GP methods suggest a diagnostic for revealing genetic architectures underlying traits of interest. In addition to genetic architecture, the performance of GP methods may be influenced by the sample size of the training population, the number of QTL, and the proportion of phenotypic variability due to genotypic variability (heritability). Possible values for these factors and the number of combinations of the factor levels that influence the performance of GP methods can be large. Thus, efficient methods for identifying combinations of factor levels that produce most accurate GPs is needed. Herein, we employ response surface methods (RSMs) to find the experimental conditions that produce the most accurate GPs. We illustrate RSM with an example of simulated doubled haploid populations and identify the combination of factors that maximize the difference between prediction accuracies of best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) and support vector machine (SVM) GP methods. The greatest impact on the response is due to the genetic architecture of the population, heritability of the trait, and the sample size. When epistasis is responsible for all of the genotypic variance and heritability is equal to one and the sample size of the training population is large, the advantage of using the SVM method vs. the BLUP method is greatest. However, except for values close to the maximum, most of the response surface shows little difference between the methods. We also determined that the conditions resulting in the greatest prediction accuracy for BLUP occurred when genetic architecture consists solely of additive effects, and heritability is equal to one. PMID:28720710

Social activity, cognitive decline and dementia risk: a 20-year prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Marioni, Riccardo E; Proust-Lima, Cecile; Amieva, Helene; Brayne, Carol; Matthews, Fiona E; Dartigues, Jean-Francois; Jacqmin-Gadda, Helene

2015-10-24

Identifying modifiable lifestyle correlates of cognitive decline and risk of dementia is complex, particularly as few population-based longitudinal studies jointly model these interlinked processes. Recent methodological developments allow us to examine statistically defined sub-populations with separate cognitive trajectories and dementia risks. Engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits, social network size, self-perception of feeling well understood, and degree of satisfaction with social relationships were assessed in 2854 participants from the Paquid cohort (mean baseline age 77 years) and related to incident dementia and cognitive change over 20-years of follow-up. Multivariate repeated cognitive information was exploited by defining the global cognitive functioning as the latent common factor underlying the tests. In addition, three latent homogeneous sub-populations of cognitive change and dementia were identified and contrasted according to social environment variables. In the whole population, we found associations between increased engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits and increased cognitive ability (but not decline) and decreased risk of incident dementia, and between feeling understood and slower cognitive decline. There was evidence for three sub-populations of cognitive aging: fast, medium, and no cognitive decline. The social-environment measures at baseline did not help explain the heterogeneity of cognitive decline and incident dementia diagnosis between these sub-populations. We observed a complex series of relationships between social-environment variables and cognitive decline and dementia. In the whole population, factors such as increased engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits were related to a decreased risk of dementia. However, in a sub-population analysis, the social-environment variables were not linked to the heterogeneous patterns of cognitive decline and dementia risk that defined the sub-groups.

Prey life-history and bioenergetic responses across a predation gradient.

PubMed

Rennie, M D; Purchase, C F; Shuter, B J; Collins, N C; Abrams, P A; Morgan, G E

2010-10-01

To evaluate the importance of non-consumptive effects of predators on prey life histories under natural conditions, an index of predator abundance was developed for naturally occurring populations of a common prey fish, the yellow perch Perca flavescens, and compared to life-history variables and rates of prey energy acquisition and allocation as estimated from mass balance models. The predation index was positively related to maximum size and size at maturity in both male and female P. flavescens, but not with life span or reproductive investment. The predation index was positively related to size-adjusted specific growth rates and growth efficiencies but negatively related to model estimates of size-adjusted specific consumption and activity rates in both vulnerable (small) and invulnerable (large) size classes of P. flavescens. These observations suggest a trade-off between growth and activity rates, mediated by reduced activity in response to increasing predator densities. Lower growth rates and growth efficiencies in populations with fewer predators, despite increased consumption suggests either 1) a reduction in prey resources at lower predator densities or 2) an intrinsic cost of rapid prey growth that makes it unfavourable unless offset by a perceived threat of predation. This study provides evidence of trade-offs between growth and activity rates induced by predation risk in natural prey fish populations and illustrates how behavioural modification induced through predation can shape the life histories of prey fish species. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Evolution and genome architecture in fungal plant pathogens.

PubMed

Möller, Mareike; Stukenbrock, Eva H

2017-12-01

The fungal kingdom comprises some of the most devastating plant pathogens. Sequencing the genomes of fungal pathogens has shown a remarkable variability in genome size and architecture. Population genomic data enable us to understand the mechanisms and the history of changes in genome size and adaptive evolution in plant pathogens. Although transposable elements predominantly have negative effects on their host, fungal pathogens provide prominent examples of advantageous associations between rapidly evolving transposable elements and virulence genes that cause variation in virulence phenotypes. By providing homogeneous environments at large regional scales, managed ecosystems, such as modern agriculture, can be conducive for the rapid evolution and dispersal of pathogens. In this Review, we summarize key examples from fungal plant pathogen genomics and discuss evolutionary processes in pathogenic fungi in the context of molecular evolution, population genomics and agriculture.

Morphology and ecology of the kalyptorhynch Typhlopolycystis rubra (Plathelminthes), an inmate of lugworm burrows in the Wadden Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noldt, U.; Reise, K.

1987-06-01

Typhlopolycystis rubra, a new species of the taxon Polycystididae (Plathelminthes, Kalyptorhynchia), is described. The red species is characterized by copulatory hard structures which consist of a proximal girdle and 2 similar sized stylets. T. rubra occurs in intertidal sand near the island of Sylt in the North Sea. Here, it is virtually confined to the lowest parts of lugworm ( Arenicola marina) burrows, where it aggregates in the coarse grained sand around the feeding pocket areas. This is an extremely narrow spatial niche within the sulfide layer of sediment. Population size over a period of 7 years is the most constant one among all species of Plathelminthes living on the tidal flat. The ability of T. rubra to endure unsuitable conditions inside a cyst may contribute to this remarkably low population variability.

Forest clearing in the Ecuadorian Amazon: A study of patterns over space and time

PubMed Central

Pan, William; Carr, David; Barbieri, Alisson; Bilsborrow, Richard; Suchindran, Chirayath

2010-01-01

This study tests four hypotheses related to forest clearing over time in Ecuador’s northern Amazon: (1) a larger increase in population over time on a farm (finca) leads to more deforestation; (2) rates of forest clearing surrounding four primary reference communities differ (spatial heterogeneity); (3) fincas farther from towns/communities experience lower rates of forest clearing over time; and (4) forest clearing differs by finca settlement cohort, viz., by year of establishment of the finca. In this paper, we examine the relationship between forest clearing and key variables over time, and compare three statistical models—OLS, random effects, and spatial regression—to test hypotheses. Descriptive analyses indicate that 7–15% of forest area was cleared on fincas between 1990 and 1999; that more recently established fincas experienced more rapid forest clearing; and that population size and forest clearing are both related to distance from a major community. Controlling for key variables, model results indicate that an increase in population size is significantly related to more forest clearing; rates of forest clearing around the four major communities are not significantly different; distances separating fincas and communities are not significantly related to deforestation; and deforestation rates are higher among more recently established fincas. Key policy implications include the importance of reducing population growth and momentum through measures such as improving information about and provision of family planning services; increasing the low level of girls education to delay and reduce fertility; and expanding credit and agricultural extension services to increase agricultural intensification. PMID:20703367

Artificial wetlands as tools for frog conservation: stability and variability of reproduction characteristics in Sahara frog populations in Tunisian man-made lakes.

PubMed

Bellakhal, Meher; Neveu, André; Fertouna-Bellakhal, Mouna; Aleya, Lotfi

2017-12-01

Amphibian populations are in decline principally due to climate change, environmental contaminants, and the reduction in wetlands. Even though data concerning current population trends are scarce, artificial wetlands appear to play a vital role in amphibian conservation. This study concerns the reproductive biology of the Sahara frog over a 2-year period in four Tunisian man-made lakes. Each month, gonad state (parameters: K, GSI, LCI), fecundity, and fertility of females (using 1227 clutches) were evaluated in the field under controlled conditions. Clutches were present for 110-130 days at two of the sites, but only for 60-80 days at the other two. Maximum egg laying occurred in May, corresponding to the highest point in the gonad somatic index. Clutch densities were higher in the smaller lakes. Female fecundity was in relation to body size; mean clutch fecundity attained 1416 eggs, with no differences observed according to site. Egg fertility varied over a 1-year period, with a maximum in May followed by a decrease when water temperature was at its highest. Eggs were smaller at the beginning of spawning; maximum size was in May, which might explain the higher fertility, but no maternal influence was detected. Embryonic development was strictly dependent on temperature. The population at each site appeared as a small patch within a metapopulation in overall good health, as shown by the relative temporal stability in reproduction variables. Constructed wetlands may therefore play an important role in the conservation of amphibians, especially in semi-arid zones.

Relationship of cranial robusticity to cranial form, geography and climate in Homo sapiens.

PubMed

Baab, Karen L; Freidline, Sarah E; Wang, Steven L; Hanson, Timothy

2010-01-01

Variation in cranial robusticity among modern human populations is widely acknowledged but not well-understood. While the use of "robust" cranial traits in hominin systematics and phylogeny suggests that these characters are strongly heritable, this hypothesis has not been tested. Alternatively, cranial robusticity may be a response to differences in diet/mastication or it may be an adaptation to cold, harsh environments. This study quantifies the distribution of cranial robusticity in 14 geographically widespread human populations, and correlates this variation with climatic variables, neutral genetic distances, cranial size, and cranial shape. With the exception of the occipital torus region, all traits were positively correlated with each other, suggesting that they should not be treated as individual characters. While males are more robust than females within each of the populations, among the independent variables (cranial shape, size, climate, and neutral genetic distances), only shape is significantly correlated with inter-population differences in robusticity. Two-block partial least-squares analysis was used to explore the relationship between cranial shape (captured by three-dimensional landmark data) and robusticity across individuals. Weak support was found for the hypothesis that robusticity was related to mastication as the shape associated with greater robusticity was similar to that described for groups that ate harder-to-process diets. Specifically, crania with more prognathic faces, expanded glabellar and occipital regions, and (slightly) longer skulls were more robust than those with rounder vaults and more orthognathic faces. However, groups with more mechanically demanding diets (hunter-gatherers) were not always more robust than groups practicing some form of agriculture.

Environmental, morphological, and productive characterization of Sardinian goats and use of latent explanatory factors for population analysis.

PubMed

Vacca, G M; Paschino, P; Dettori, M L; Bergamaschi, M; Cipolat-Gotet, C; Bittante, G; Pazzola, M

2016-09-01

Dairy goat farming is practiced worldwide, within a range of different farming systems. Here we investigated the effects of environmental factors and morphology on milk traits of the Sardinian goat population. Sardinian goats are currently reared in Sardinia (Italy) in a low-input context, similar to many goat farming systems, especially in developing countries. Milk and morphological traits from 1,050 Sardinian goats from 42 farms were recorded. We observed a high variability regarding morphological traits, such as coat color, ear length and direction, horn presence, and udder shape. Such variability derived partly from the unplanned repeated crossbreeding of the native Sardinian goats with exotic breeds, especially Maltese goats. The farms located in the mountains were characterized by the traditional farming system and the lowest percentage of crossbred goats. Explanatory factors analysis was used to summarize the interrelated measured milk variables. The explanatory factor related to fat, protein, and energy content of milk (the "Quality" latent variable) explained about 30% of the variance of the whole data set of measured milk traits followed by the "Hygiene" (19%), "Production" (19%), and "Acidity" (11%) factors. The "Quality" and "Hygiene" factors were not affected by any of the farm classification items, whereas "Production" and "Acidity" were affected only by altitude and size of herds, respectively, indicating the adaptation of the local goat population to different environmental conditions. The use of latent explanatory factor analysis allowed us to clearly explain the large variability of milk traits, revealing that the Sardinian goat population cannot be divided into subpopulations based on milk attitude The factors, properly integrated with genetic data, may be useful tools in future selection programs.

High genetic diversity in a small population: the case of Chilean blue whales

PubMed Central

Torres-Florez, Juan P; Hucke-Gaete, Rodrigo; Rosenbaum, Howard; Figueroa, Christian C

2014-01-01

It is generally assumed that species with low population sizes have lower genetic diversities than larger populations and vice versa. However, this would not be the case for long-lived species with long generation times, and which populations have declined due to anthropogenic effects, such as the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus). This species was intensively decimated globally to near extinction during the 20th century. Along the Chilean coast, it is estimated that at least 4288 blue whales were hunted from an apparently pre-exploitation population size (k) of a maximum of 6200 individuals (Southeastern Pacific). Thus, here, we describe the mtDNA (control region) and nDNA (microsatellites) diversities of the Chilean blue whale aggregation site in order to verify the expectation of low genetic diversity in small populations. We then compare our findings with other blue whale aggregations in the Southern Hemisphere. Interestingly, although the estimated population size is small compared with the pre-whaling era, there is still considerable genetic diversity, even after the population crash, both in mitochondrial (N = 46) and nuclear (N = 52) markers (Hd = 0.890 and Ho = 0.692, respectively). Our results suggest that this diversity could be a consequence of the long generation times and the relatively short period of time elapsed since the end of whaling, which has been observed in other heavily-exploited whale populations. The genetic variability of blue whales on their southern Chile feeding grounds was similar to that found in other Southern Hemisphere blue whale feeding grounds. Our phylogenetic analysis of mtDNA haplotypes does not show extensive differentiation of populations among Southern Hemisphere blue whale feeding grounds. The present study suggests that although levels of genetic diversity are frequently used as estimators of population health, these parameters depend on the biology of the species and should be taken into account in a monitoring framework study to obtain a more complete picture of the conservation status of a population. PMID:24834336

Using Population Density and Size Class Frequency to Identify Recruitment Limitation and Saturation in Shellfishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.

2016-02-01

Many fisheries are threatened due to overfishing, changing climate, and anthropogenic activities. Benthic marine organisms can be especially vulnerable to these pressures because of their inability to flee, and some of these organisms comprise the most threatened fisheries. Providing predictive tools to managers is key to reestablishing populations and sustainability in threatened or crashed fisheries. Here we examine the demographics of Cellana spp., culturally and culinarily important intertidal shellfishes in Hawai'i, in populations that are naturally recruitment limited and those that are recruitment saturated. We focus on variation in two demographic parameters: population density and size class frequency. From 2009 to 2015, yearly transect surveys were conducted on four isolated and uninhabited islands within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM), a massive marine protected area. Two islands exhibit classic signs of recruitment limitation with several absent intertidal species and low population densities while two larger islands have a relative abundance of species and high population densities. The population density of C. exarata in the recruitment-saturated populations exhibit much higher variability, than in the recruitment-limited populations, that is driven by a massive recruitment peak in May-June. An inverted age pyramid characterized the recruitment-limited populations, which display a more stable adult-dominated population. The recruitment-saturated populations were characterized by a traditional age pyramid, which exhibit a less stable juvenile-dominated population. These results are being used to model and predict population dynamics in the intensely harvested populations of the main Hawaiian Islands for the purposes of management decision-making.

Association of Overweight with Food Portion Size among Adults of São Paulo - Brazil.

PubMed

Pereira, Jaqueline Lopes; Mendes, Aline; Crispim, Sandra Patricia; Marchioni, Dirce Maria; Fisberg, Regina Mara

2016-01-01

Although studies show that portion size affects energy intake, few have demonstrated a link between portion size and weight status, especially in free-living populations. The objective of the present study was to assess the relationship between food portion sizes and overweight in a representative population of adults of São Paulo, Brazil. Cross-sectional population-based study with 1005 adults from São Paulo, Brazil. Dietary data were obtained from two 24-hour recalls. Reported foods were classified into groups and energy contribution, prevalence of consumers and portion sizes were calculated. Individuals were classified according to BMI in with and without overweight. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between food portion sizes and being overweight. The most consumed food groups were: beans, breads/rolls, coffee/tea, milk, rice, and sugar. Rice, red meat, breads/rolls, and white meat were the groups with the highest percentage of contribution to total energy intake. Butter/margarine, toasts/biscuits, sugar, and cakes were the groups with the highest energy density. After adjustment for confounding variables, overweight was associated with larger portions of pizza (OR = 1.052; p = 0.048), red meat (OR = 1.025; p = 0.043), rice (OR = 1.033; p<0.001), salted snacks (OR = 1.078; p = 0.022), and soft drinks (OR = 1.016; p = 0.007). Larger portions of few food groups with different energy densities were associated with being overweight, suggesting that overweight may be related to the consumption of larger portion sizes of a series of food groups, not a food group alone. Additionally, we highlight the importance of considering underreporting as a confounding factor in these associations.

Coding of time-dependent stimuli in homogeneous and heterogeneous neural populations.

PubMed

Beiran, Manuel; Kruscha, Alexandra; Benda, Jan; Lindner, Benjamin

2018-04-01

We compare the information transmission of a time-dependent signal by two types of uncoupled neuron populations that differ in their sources of variability: i) a homogeneous population whose units receive independent noise and ii) a deterministic heterogeneous population, where each unit exhibits a different baseline firing rate ('disorder'). Our criterion for making both sources of variability quantitatively comparable is that the interspike-interval distributions are identical for both systems. Numerical simulations using leaky integrate-and-fire neurons unveil that a non-zero amount of both noise or disorder maximizes the encoding efficiency of the homogeneous and heterogeneous system, respectively, as a particular case of suprathreshold stochastic resonance. Our findings thus illustrate that heterogeneity can render similarly profitable effects for neuronal populations as dynamic noise. The optimal noise/disorder depends on the system size and the properties of the stimulus such as its intensity or cutoff frequency. We find that weak stimuli are better encoded by a noiseless heterogeneous population, whereas for strong stimuli a homogeneous population outperforms an equivalent heterogeneous system up to a moderate noise level. Furthermore, we derive analytical expressions of the coherence function for the cases of very strong noise and of vanishing intrinsic noise or heterogeneity, which predict the existence of an optimal noise intensity. Our results show that, depending on the type of signal, noise as well as heterogeneity can enhance the encoding performance of neuronal populations.

Stock discrimination of spottedtail goby ( Synechogobius ommaturus) in the Yellow Sea by analysis of otolith shape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingjun; Ye, Zhenjiang; Liu, Qun; Cao, Liang

2011-01-01

Otolith shape is species specific and is an ideal marker of fish population affiliation. In this study, otolith shape of spottedtail goby Synechogobius ommaturus is used to identify stocks in different spawning locations in the Yellow Sea. The main objectives of this study are to explore the potential existence of local stocks of spottedtail goby in the Yellow Sea by analysis of otolith shape, and to investigate ambient impacts on otolith shape. Spottedtail goby was sampled in five locations in the Yellow Sea in 2007 and 2008. Otoliths are described using variables correlated to size (otolith area, perimeter, length, width, and weight) and shape (rectangularity, circularity, and 20 Fourier harmonics). Only standardized otolith variables are used so that the effect of otolith size on the shape variables could be eliminated. There is no significant difference among variables of sex, year, and side (left and right). However, the otolith shapes of the spring stocks and the autumn stocks differ significantly. Otolith shape differences are greater among locations than between years. Correct classification rate of spottedtail goby with the otolith shape at different sampling locations range from 29.7%-77.4%.

Risky business for a juvenile marine predator? Testing the influence of foraging strategies on size and growth rate under natural conditions

PubMed Central

DiBattista, Joseph D.; Moore, Jonathan W.; Ward, Eric J.; Fisk, Aaron T.; Kessel, Steven; Guttridge, Tristan L.; Feldheim, Kevin A.; Franks, Bryan R.; Gruber, Samuel H.; Weideli, Ornella C.; Chapman, Demian D.

2017-01-01

Mechanisms driving selection of body size and growth rate in wild marine vertebrates are poorly understood, thus limiting knowledge of their fitness costs at ecological, physiological and genetic scales. Here, we indirectly tested whether selection for size-related traits of juvenile sharks that inhabit a nursery hosting two dichotomous habitats, protected mangroves (low predation risk) and exposed seagrass beds (high predation risk), is influenced by their foraging behaviour. Juvenile sharks displayed a continuum of foraging strategies between mangrove and seagrass areas, with some individuals preferentially feeding in one habitat over another. Foraging habitat was correlated with growth rate, whereby slower growing, smaller individuals fed predominantly in sheltered mangroves, whereas larger, faster growing animals fed over exposed seagrass. Concomitantly, tracked juveniles undertook variable movement behaviours across both the low and high predation risk habitat. These data provide supporting evidence for the hypothesis that directional selection favouring smaller size and slower growth rate, both heritable traits in this shark population, may be driven by variability in foraging behaviour and predation risk. Such evolutionary pathways may be critical to adaptation within predator-driven marine ecosystems. PMID:28381626

Risky business for a juvenile marine predator? Testing the influence of foraging strategies on size and growth rate under natural conditions.

PubMed

Hussey, Nigel E; DiBattista, Joseph D; Moore, Jonathan W; Ward, Eric J; Fisk, Aaron T; Kessel, Steven; Guttridge, Tristan L; Feldheim, Kevin A; Franks, Bryan R; Gruber, Samuel H; Weideli, Ornella C; Chapman, Demian D

2017-04-12

Mechanisms driving selection of body size and growth rate in wild marine vertebrates are poorly understood, thus limiting knowledge of their fitness costs at ecological, physiological and genetic scales. Here, we indirectly tested whether selection for size-related traits of juvenile sharks that inhabit a nursery hosting two dichotomous habitats, protected mangroves (low predation risk) and exposed seagrass beds (high predation risk), is influenced by their foraging behaviour. Juvenile sharks displayed a continuum of foraging strategies between mangrove and seagrass areas, with some individuals preferentially feeding in one habitat over another. Foraging habitat was correlated with growth rate, whereby slower growing, smaller individuals fed predominantly in sheltered mangroves, whereas larger, faster growing animals fed over exposed seagrass. Concomitantly, tracked juveniles undertook variable movement behaviours across both the low and high predation risk habitat. These data provide supporting evidence for the hypothesis that directional selection favouring smaller size and slower growth rate, both heritable traits in this shark population, may be driven by variability in foraging behaviour and predation risk. Such evolutionary pathways may be critical to adaptation within predator-driven marine ecosystems. © 2017 The Author(s).

Balancing precision and risk: should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, Tabitha A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kendall, Katherine C.; Beier, Paul; Stetz, Jeffrey B.; Macleod, Amy C.

2012-01-01

Using multiple detection methods can increase the number, kind, and distribution of individuals sampled, which may increase accuracy and precision and reduce cost of population abundance estimates. However, when variables influencing abundance are of interest, if individuals detected via different methods are influenced by the landscape differently, separate analysis of multiple detection methods may be more appropriate. We evaluated the effects of combining two detection methods on the identification of variables important to local abundance using detections of grizzly bears with hair traps (systematic) and bear rubs (opportunistic). We used hierarchical abundance models (N-mixture models) with separate model components for each detection method. If both methods sample the same population, the use of either data set alone should (1) lead to the selection of the same variables as important and (2) provide similar estimates of relative local abundance. We hypothesized that the inclusion of 2 detection methods versus either method alone should (3) yield more support for variables identified in single method analyses (i.e. fewer variables and models with greater weight), and (4) improve precision of covariate estimates for variables selected in both separate and combined analyses because sample size is larger. As expected, joint analysis of both methods increased precision as well as certainty in variable and model selection. However, the single-method analyses identified different variables and the resulting predicted abundances had different spatial distributions. We recommend comparing single-method and jointly modeled results to identify the presence of individual heterogeneity between detection methods in N-mixture models, along with consideration of detection probabilities, correlations among variables, and tolerance to risk of failing to identify variables important to a subset of the population. The benefits of increased precision should be weighed against those risks. The analysis framework presented here will be useful for other species exhibiting heterogeneity by detection method.

Population ecology of polar bears in Davis Strait, Canada and Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Laake, Jeffrey L.; Stirling, Ian

2013-01-01

Until recently, the sea ice habitat of polar bears was understood to be variable, but environmental variability was considered to be cyclic or random, rather than progressive. Harvested populations were believed to be at levels where density effects were considered not significant. However, because we now understand that polar bear demography can also be influenced by progressive change in the environment, and some populations have increased to greater densities than historically lower numbers, a broader suite of factors should be considered in demographic studies and management. We analyzed 35 years of capture and harvest data from the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation in Davis Strait, including data from a new study (2005–2007), to quantify its current demography. We estimated the population size in 2007 to be 2,158 ± 180 (SE), a likely increase from the 1970s. We detected variation in survival, reproductive rates, and age-structure of polar bears from geographic sub-regions. Survival and reproduction of bears in southern Davis Strait was greater than in the north and tied to a concurrent dramatic increase in breeding harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) in Labrador. The most supported survival models contained geographic and temporal variables. Harp seal abundance was significantly related to polar bear survival. Our estimates of declining harvest recovery rate, and increasing total survival, suggest that the rate of harvest declined over time. Low recruitment rates, average adult survival rates, and high population density, in an environment of high prey density, but deteriorating and variable ice conditions, currently characterize the Davis Strait polar bears. Low reproductive rates may reflect negative effects of greater densities or worsening ice conditions.

Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten

2008-12-09

The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of individuals to the perceived risk while moving. These context-dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one provided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth-death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.

Genetic variation, relatedness, and effective population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska.

PubMed

Cronin, Matthew A; Amstrup, Steven C; Talbot, Sandra L; Sage, George K; Amstrup, Kristin S

2009-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are unique among bears in that they are adapted to the Arctic sea ice environment. Genetic data are useful for understanding their evolution and can contribute to management. We assessed parentage and relatedness of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska, with genetic data and field observations of age, sex, and mother-offspring and sibling relationships. Genotypes at 14 microsatellite DNA loci for 226 bears indicate that genetic variation is comparable to other populations of polar bears with mean number of alleles per locus of 7.9 and observed and expected heterozygosity of 0.71. The genetic data verified 60 field-identified mother-offspring pairs and identified 10 additional mother-cub pairs and 48 father-offspring pairs. The entire sample of related and unrelated bears had a mean pairwise relatedness index (r(xy)) of approximately zero, parent-offspring and siblings had r(xy) of approximately 0.5, and 5.2% of the samples had r(xy) values within the range expected for parent-offspring. Effective population size (N(e) = 277) and the ratio of N(e) to total population size (N(e)/N = 0.182) were estimated from the numbers of reproducing males and females. N(e) estimates with genetic methods gave variable results. Our results verify and expand field data on reproduction by females and provide new data on reproduction by males and estimates of relatedness and N(e) in a polar bear population.

Genetic variation, relatedness, and effective population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Matthew A.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Sage, George K.; Amstrup, Kristin S.

2009-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are unique among bears in that they are adapted to the Arctic sea ice environment. Genetic data are useful for understanding their evolution and can contribute to management. We assessed parentage and relatedness of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska, with genetic data and field observations of age, sex, and mother–offspring and sibling relationships. Genotypes at 14 microsatellite DNA loci for 226 bears indicate that genetic variation is comparable to other populations of polar bears with mean number of alleles per locus of 7.9 and observed and expected heterozygosity of 0.71. The genetic data verified 60 field-identified mother–offspring pairs and identified 10 additional mother–cub pairs and 48 father–offspring pairs. The entire sample of related and unrelated bears had a mean pairwise relatedness index (rxy) of approximately zero, parent–offspring and siblings had rxy of approximately 0.5, and 5.2% of the samples had rxy values within the range expected for parent-offspring. Effective population size (Ne= 277) and the ratio of Ne to total population size (Ne/N = 0.182) were estimated from the numbers of reproducing males and females. Ne estimates with genetic methods gave variable results. Our results verify and expand field data on reproduction by females and provide new data on reproduction by males and estimates of relatedness and Ne in a polar bear population.

A meta-analysis of single-case research on the use of tablet-mediated interventions for persons with ASD.

PubMed

Hong, Ee Rea; Gong, Li-Yuan; Ninci, Jennifer; Morin, Kristi; Davis, John L; Kawaminami, Sawako; Shi, Yan-Qiu; Noro, Fumiyuki

2017-11-01

There is a growing amount of single-case research literature on the benefits of tablet-mediated interventions for individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). With the development of tablet-based computers, tablet-mediated interventions have been widely utilized for education and treatment purposes; however, the overall quality and evidence of this literature-base are unknown. This article aims to present a quality review of the single-case experimental literature and aggregate results across studies involving the use of tablet-mediated interventions for individuals with ASD. Using the Tau nonoverlap effect size measure, the authors extracted data from single-case experimental studies and calculated effect sizes differentiated by moderator variables. The moderator variables included the ages of participants, participants' diagnoses, interventions, outcome measures, settings, and contexts. Results indicate that tablet-mediated interventions for individuals with ASD have moderate to large effect sizes across the variables evaluated. The majority of research in this review used tablets for video modeling and augmentative and alternative communication. To promote the usability of tablet-mediated interventions for individuals with ASD, this review indicates that more single-case experimental studies should be conducted with this population in naturalistic home, community, and employment settings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Intrinsic and Extrinsic Variability in Stochastic Gene Expression Models

PubMed Central

Singh, Abhyudai; Soltani, Mohammad

2013-01-01

Genetically identical cell populations exhibit considerable intercellular variation in the level of a given protein or mRNA. Both intrinsic and extrinsic sources of noise drive this variability in gene expression. More specifically, extrinsic noise is the expression variability that arises from cell-to-cell differences in cell-specific factors such as enzyme levels, cell size and cell cycle stage. In contrast, intrinsic noise is the expression variability that is not accounted for by extrinsic noise, and typically arises from the inherent stochastic nature of biochemical processes. Two-color reporter experiments are employed to decompose expression variability into its intrinsic and extrinsic noise components. Analytical formulas for intrinsic and extrinsic noise are derived for a class of stochastic gene expression models, where variations in cell-specific factors cause fluctuations in model parameters, in particular, transcription and/or translation rate fluctuations. Assuming mRNA production occurs in random bursts, transcription rate is represented by either the burst frequency (how often the bursts occur) or the burst size (number of mRNAs produced in each burst). Our analysis shows that fluctuations in the transcription burst frequency enhance extrinsic noise but do not affect the intrinsic noise. On the contrary, fluctuations in the transcription burst size or mRNA translation rate dramatically increase both intrinsic and extrinsic noise components. Interestingly, simultaneous fluctuations in transcription and translation rates arising from randomness in ATP abundance can decrease intrinsic noise measured in a two-color reporter assay. Finally, we discuss how these formulas can be combined with single-cell gene expression data from two-color reporter experiments for estimating model parameters. PMID:24391934

Quantifying intrinsic and extrinsic variability in stochastic gene expression models.

PubMed

Singh, Abhyudai; Soltani, Mohammad

2013-01-01

Genetically identical cell populations exhibit considerable intercellular variation in the level of a given protein or mRNA. Both intrinsic and extrinsic sources of noise drive this variability in gene expression. More specifically, extrinsic noise is the expression variability that arises from cell-to-cell differences in cell-specific factors such as enzyme levels, cell size and cell cycle stage. In contrast, intrinsic noise is the expression variability that is not accounted for by extrinsic noise, and typically arises from the inherent stochastic nature of biochemical processes. Two-color reporter experiments are employed to decompose expression variability into its intrinsic and extrinsic noise components. Analytical formulas for intrinsic and extrinsic noise are derived for a class of stochastic gene expression models, where variations in cell-specific factors cause fluctuations in model parameters, in particular, transcription and/or translation rate fluctuations. Assuming mRNA production occurs in random bursts, transcription rate is represented by either the burst frequency (how often the bursts occur) or the burst size (number of mRNAs produced in each burst). Our analysis shows that fluctuations in the transcription burst frequency enhance extrinsic noise but do not affect the intrinsic noise. On the contrary, fluctuations in the transcription burst size or mRNA translation rate dramatically increase both intrinsic and extrinsic noise components. Interestingly, simultaneous fluctuations in transcription and translation rates arising from randomness in ATP abundance can decrease intrinsic noise measured in a two-color reporter assay. Finally, we discuss how these formulas can be combined with single-cell gene expression data from two-color reporter experiments for estimating model parameters.

A Systematic Review of the Relationship between Familism and Mental Health Outcomes in Latino Population

PubMed Central

Valdivieso-Mora, Esmeralda; Peet, Casie L.; Garnier-Villarreal, Mauricio; Salazar-Villanea, Monica; Johnson, David K.

2016-01-01

Background: Familismo or familism is a cultural value frequently seen in Hispanic cultures, in which a higher emphasis is placed on the family unit in terms of respect, support, obligation, and reference. Familism has been implicated as a protective factor against mental health problems and may foster the growth and development of children. This study aims at measuring the size of the relationship between familism and mental health outcomes of depression, suicide, substance abuse, internalizing, and externalizing behaviors. Methods: Thirty-nine studies were systematically reviewed to assess the relationship between familism and mental health outcomes. Data from the studies were comprised and organized into five categories: depression, suicide, internalizing symptoms, externalizing symptoms, and substance use. The Cohen's d of each value (dependent variable in comparison to familism) was calculated. Results were weighted based on sample sizes (n) and total effect sizes were then calculated. It was hypothesized that there would be a large effect size in the relationship between familism and depression, suicide, internalizing, and externalizing symptoms and substance use in Hispanics. Results: The meta-analysis showed small effect sizes in the relationship between familism and depression, suicide and internalizing behaviors. And no significant effects for substance abuse and externalizing behaviors. Discussion: The small effects found in this study may be explained by the presence of moderator variables between familism and mental health outcomes (e.g., communication within the family). In addition, variability in the Latino samples and in the measurements used might explain the small and non-significant effects found. PMID:27826269

Genome-wide signatures of population bottlenecks and diversifying selection in European wolves

PubMed Central

Pilot, M; Greco, C; vonHoldt, B M; Jędrzejewska, B; Randi, E; Jędrzejewski, W; Sidorovich, V E; Ostrander, E A; Wayne, R K

2014-01-01

Genomic resources developed for domesticated species provide powerful tools for studying the evolutionary history of their wild relatives. Here we use 61K single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) evenly spaced throughout the canine nuclear genome to analyse evolutionary relationships among the three largest European populations of grey wolves in comparison with other populations worldwide, and investigate genome-wide effects of demographic bottlenecks and signatures of selection. European wolves have a discontinuous range, with large and connected populations in Eastern Europe and relatively smaller, isolated populations in Italy and the Iberian Peninsula. Our results suggest a continuous decline in wolf numbers in Europe since the Late Pleistocene, and long-term isolation and bottlenecks in the Italian and Iberian populations following their divergence from the Eastern European population. The Italian and Iberian populations have low genetic variability and high linkage disequilibrium, but relatively few autozygous segments across the genome. This last characteristic clearly distinguishes them from populations that underwent recent drastic demographic declines or founder events, and implies long-term bottlenecks in these two populations. Although genetic drift due to spatial isolation and bottlenecks seems to be a major evolutionary force diversifying the European populations, we detected 35 loci that are putatively under diversifying selection. Two of these loci flank the canine platelet-derived growth factor gene, which affects bone growth and may influence differences in body size between wolf populations. This study demonstrates the power of population genomics for identifying genetic signals of demographic bottlenecks and detecting signatures of directional selection in bottlenecked populations, despite their low background variability. PMID:24346500

High mutation rates explain low population genetic divergence at copy-number-variable loci in Homo sapiens.

PubMed

Hu, Xin-Sheng; Yeh, Francis C; Hu, Yang; Deng, Li-Ting; Ennos, Richard A; Chen, Xiaoyang

2017-02-22

Copy-number-variable (CNV) loci differ from single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) sites in size, mutation rate, and mechanisms of maintenance in natural populations. It is therefore hypothesized that population genetic divergence at CNV loci will differ from that found at SNP sites. Here, we test this hypothesis by analysing 856 CNV loci from the genomes of 1184 healthy individuals from 11 HapMap populations with a wide range of ancestry. The results show that population genetic divergence at the CNV loci is generally more than three times lower than at genome-wide SNP sites. Populations generally exhibit very small genetic divergence (G st  = 0.05 ± 0.049). The smallest divergence is among African populations (G st  = 0.0081 ± 0.0025), with increased divergence among non-African populations (G st  = 0.0217 ± 0.0109) and then among African and non-African populations (G st  = 0.0324 ± 0.0064). Genetic diversity is high in African populations (~0.13), low in Asian populations (~0.11), and intermediate in the remaining 11 populations. Few significant linkage disequilibria (LDs) occur between the genome-wide CNV loci. Patterns of gametic and zygotic LDs indicate the absence of epistasis among CNV loci. Mutation rate is about twice as large as the migration rate in the non-African populations, suggesting that the high mutation rates play dominant roles in producing the low population genetic divergence at CNV loci.

Exact Markov chains versus diffusion theory for haploid random mating.

PubMed

Tyvand, Peder A; Thorvaldsen, Steinar

2010-05-01

Exact discrete Markov chains are applied to the Wright-Fisher model and the Moran model of haploid random mating. Selection and mutations are neglected. At each discrete value of time t there is a given number n of diploid monoecious organisms. The evolution of the population distribution is given in diffusion variables, to compare the two models of random mating with their common diffusion limit. Only the Moran model converges uniformly to the diffusion limit near the boundary. The Wright-Fisher model allows the population size to change with the generations. Diffusion theory tends to under-predict the loss of genetic information when a population enters a bottleneck. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High spatial variation in population size and symbiotic performance of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii with white clover in New Zealand pasture soils.

PubMed

Wakelin, Steven; Tillard, Guyléne; van Ham, Robert; Ballard, Ross; Farquharson, Elizabeth; Gerard, Emily; Geurts, Rene; Brown, Matthew; Ridgway, Hayley; O'Callaghan, Maureen

2018-01-01

Biological nitrogen fixation through the legume-rhizobia symbiosis is important for sustainable pastoral production. In New Zealand, the most widespread and valuable symbiosis occurs between white clover (Trifolium repens L.) and Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii (Rlt). As variation in the population size (determined by most probable number assays; MPN) and effectiveness of N-fixation (symbiotic potential; SP) of Rlt in soils may affect white clover performance, the extent in variation in these properties was examined at three different spatial scales: (1) From 26 sites across New Zealand, (2) at farm-wide scale, and (3) within single fields. Overall, Rlt populations ranged from 95 to >1 x 108 per g soil, with variation similar at the three spatial scales assessed. For almost all samples, there was no relationship between rhizobia population size and ability of the population to fix N during legume symbiosis (SP). When compared with the commercial inoculant strain, the SP of soils ranged between 14 to 143% efficacy. The N-fixing ability of rhizobia populations varied more between samples collected from within a single hill country field (0.8 ha) than between 26 samples collected from diverse locations across New Zealand. Correlations between SP and calcium and aluminium content were found in all sites, except within a dairy farm field. Given the general lack of association between SP and MPN, and high spatial variability of SP at single field scale, provision of advice for treating legume seed with rhizobia based on field-average MPN counts needs to be carefully considered.

Urban growth in Korea, 1970-1980: an application of the human ecological perspective.

PubMed

Ko, S H

1994-07-01

This study supports the ecological perspective proposed by Duncan (population, environment, organization, and technology) explaining urban population growth. Data were obtained from the 1970 and 1980 Korean Population Census and Korean Municipal Yearbook on cities with a minimum size of 20,000-50,000 people (108 cities and towns). Urban growth is most strongly influenced by indigenous labor surplus and the population potential of the city to be in contact with another city. Nine multiple regression variables explained just under 66% of the variance in urban growth. Net migration was influential among those aged 15-24 years. The extent of differentiation of industry affected net migration only among those aged 15-24 years and those aged 35-44 years. Population redistribution was more affected directly by changes in industrial organization, and migration was affected indirectly by environmental and technological effects on organization. Urban growth through migration of older age groups was affected by government expenditure on public works. Urban growth was not much affected by transportation/communication concentration, manufacturing concentration, urban labor surplus, population size, and site. Urban growth was viewed as the interaction between the unemployment rate and the urban wage, following Todaro's equilibrium models. In Korea, larger cities only grew faster during the 1960s. By the 1970s, upper middle-sized cities grew faster. Location was not a significant factor in explaining urban growth, but growth was rapid along a corridor within 100 km from Seoul and 50 km from Pusan, the second largest city in Korea. Caution was urged in interpreting Korea's ecological urban growth patterns as indicative of developing countries.

High spatial variation in population size and symbiotic performance of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii with white clover in New Zealand pasture soils

PubMed Central

Tillard, Guyléne; van Ham, Robert; Ballard, Ross; Farquharson, Elizabeth; Gerard, Emily; Geurts, Rene; Brown, Matthew; Ridgway, Hayley; O’Callaghan, Maureen

2018-01-01

Biological nitrogen fixation through the legume-rhizobia symbiosis is important for sustainable pastoral production. In New Zealand, the most widespread and valuable symbiosis occurs between white clover (Trifolium repens L.) and Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii (Rlt). As variation in the population size (determined by most probable number assays; MPN) and effectiveness of N-fixation (symbiotic potential; SP) of Rlt in soils may affect white clover performance, the extent in variation in these properties was examined at three different spatial scales: (1) From 26 sites across New Zealand, (2) at farm-wide scale, and (3) within single fields. Overall, Rlt populations ranged from 95 to >1 x 108 per g soil, with variation similar at the three spatial scales assessed. For almost all samples, there was no relationship between rhizobia population size and ability of the population to fix N during legume symbiosis (SP). When compared with the commercial inoculant strain, the SP of soils ranged between 14 to 143% efficacy. The N-fixing ability of rhizobia populations varied more between samples collected from within a single hill country field (0.8 ha) than between 26 samples collected from diverse locations across New Zealand. Correlations between SP and calcium and aluminium content were found in all sites, except within a dairy farm field. Given the general lack of association between SP and MPN, and high spatial variability of SP at single field scale, provision of advice for treating legume seed with rhizobia based on field-average MPN counts needs to be carefully considered. PMID:29489845

Spatial extent of analysis influences observed patterns of population genetic structure in a widespread darter species (Percidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Argentina, Jane E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hallerman, Eric M.; Welsh, Stuart A.

2018-01-01

Connectivity among stream fish populations allows for exchange of genetic material and helps maintain genetic diversity, adaptive potential and population stability over time. Changes in species demographics and population connectivity have the potential to permanently alter the genetic patterns of stream fish, although these changes through space and time are variable and understudied in small‐bodied freshwater fish.As a spatially widespread, common species of benthic freshwater fish, the variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) is a model species for documenting how patterns of genetic structure and diversity respond to increasing isolation due to large dams and how scale of study may shape our understanding of these patterns. We sampled variegate darters from 34 sites across their range in the North American Ohio River basin and examined how patterns of genetic structure and diversity within and between populations responded to historical population changes and dams within and between populations.Spatial scale and configuration of genetic structure varied across the eight identified populations, from tributaries within a watershed, to a single watershed, to multiple watersheds that encompass Ohio River mainstem habitats. This multiwatershed pattern of population structuring suggests genetic dispersal across large distances was and may continue to be common, although some populations remain isolated despite no apparent structural dispersal barriers. Populations with low effective population sizes and evidence of past population bottlenecks showed low allelic richness, but diversity patterns were not related to watershed size, a surrogate for habitat availability. Pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) increased with fluvial distance and was related to both historic and contemporary processes. Genetic diversity changes were influenced by underlying population size and stability, and while instream barriers were not strong determinants of genetic structuring or loss of genetic diversity, they reduce population connectivity and may impact long‐term population persistence.The broad spatial scale of this study demonstrated the large spatial extent of some variegate darter populations and indicated that dispersal is more extensive than expected given the movement patterns typically observed for small‐bodied, benthic fish. Dam impacts depended on underlying population size and stability, with larger populations more resilient to genetic drift and allelic richness loss than smaller populations.Other darters that inhabit large river habitats may show similar patterns in landscape‐scale studies, and large river barriers may impact populations of small‐bodied fish more than previously expected. Estimation of dispersal rates and behaviours is critical to conservation of imperilled riverine species such as darters.

Multi-species attributes as the condition for adaptive sampling of rare species using two-stage sequential sampling with an auxiliary variable

USGS Publications Warehouse

Panahbehagh, B.; Smith, D.R.; Salehi, M.M.; Hornbach, D.J.; Brown, D.J.; Chan, F.; Marinova, D.; Anderssen, R.S.

2011-01-01

Assessing populations of rare species is challenging because of the large effort required to locate patches of occupied habitat and achieve precise estimates of density and abundance. The presence of a rare species has been shown to be correlated with presence or abundance of more common species. Thus, ecological community richness or abundance can be used to inform sampling of rare species. Adaptive sampling designs have been developed specifically for rare and clustered populations and have been applied to a wide range of rare species. However, adaptive sampling can be logistically challenging, in part, because variation in final sample size introduces uncertainty in survey planning. Two-stage sequential sampling (TSS), a recently developed design, allows for adaptive sampling, but avoids edge units and has an upper bound on final sample size. In this paper we present an extension of two-stage sequential sampling that incorporates an auxiliary variable (TSSAV), such as community attributes, as the condition for adaptive sampling. We develop a set of simulations to approximate sampling of endangered freshwater mussels to evaluate the performance of the TSSAV design. The performance measures that we are interested in are efficiency and probability of sampling a unit occupied by the rare species. Efficiency measures the precision of population estimate from the TSSAV design relative to a standard design, such as simple random sampling (SRS). The simulations indicate that the density and distribution of the auxiliary population is the most important determinant of the performance of the TSSAV design. Of the design factors, such as sample size, the fraction of the primary units sampled was most important. For the best scenarios, the odds of sampling the rare species was approximately 1.5 times higher for TSSAV compared to SRS and efficiency was as high as 2 (i.e., variance from TSSAV was half that of SRS). We have found that design performance, especially for adaptive designs, is often case-specific. Efficiency of adaptive designs is especially sensitive to spatial distribution. We recommend that simulations tailored to the application of interest are highly useful for evaluating designs in preparation for sampling rare and clustered populations.

Non-additive effects of pollen limitation and self-incompatibility reduce plant reproductive success and population viability

PubMed Central

Young, Andrew G.; Broadhurst, Linda M.; Thrall, Peter H.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Mating system is a primary determinant of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of wild plant populations. Pollen limitation and loss of self-incompatibility genotypes can both act independently to reduce seed set and these effects are commonly observed in fragmented landscapes. This study used a simulation modelling approach to assess the interacting effects of these two processes on plant reproductive performance and population viability for a range of pollination likelihood, self-incompatibility systems and S-allele richness conditions. Methods A spatially explicit, individual-based, genetic and demographic simulation model parameterized to represent a generic self-incompatible, short-lived perennial herb was used to conduct simulation experiments in which pollination probability, self-incompatibility type (gametophytic and sporophytic) and S-allele richness were systematically varied in combination to assess their independent and interacting effects on the demographic response variables of mate availability, seed set, population size and population persistence. Key Results Joint effects of reduced pollination probability and low S-allele richness were greater than independent effects for all demographic response variables except population persistence under high pollinator service (>50 %). At intermediate values of 15–25 % pollination probability, non-linear interactions with S-allele richness generated significant reductions in population performance beyond those expected by the simple additive effect of each independently. This was due to the impacts of reduced effective population size on the ability of populations to retain S alleles and maintain mate availability. Across a limited set of pollination and S-allele conditions (P = 0·15 and S = 20) populations with gametophytic SI showed reduced S-allele erosion relative to those with sporophytic SI, but this had limited effects on individual fecundity and translated into only modest increases in population persistence. Conclusions Interactions between pollen limitation and loss of S alleles have the potential to significantly reduce the viability of populations of a few hundred plants. Population decline may occur more rapidly than expected when pollination probabilities drop below 25 % and S alleles are fewer than 20 due to non-additive interactions. These are likely to be common conditions experienced by plants in small populations in fragmented landscapes and are also those under which differences in response between gameptophytic and sporophtyic systems are observed. PMID:22184620

Non-additive effects of pollen limitation and self-incompatibility reduce plant reproductive success and population viability.

PubMed

Young, Andrew G; Broadhurst, Linda M; Thrall, Peter H

2012-02-01

Mating system is a primary determinant of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of wild plant populations. Pollen limitation and loss of self-incompatibility genotypes can both act independently to reduce seed set and these effects are commonly observed in fragmented landscapes. This study used a simulation modelling approach to assess the interacting effects of these two processes on plant reproductive performance and population viability for a range of pollination likelihood, self-incompatibility systems and S-allele richness conditions. A spatially explicit, individual-based, genetic and demographic simulation model parameterized to represent a generic self-incompatible, short-lived perennial herb was used to conduct simulation experiments in which pollination probability, self-incompatibility type (gametophytic and sporophytic) and S-allele richness were systematically varied in combination to assess their independent and interacting effects on the demographic response variables of mate availability, seed set, population size and population persistence. Joint effects of reduced pollination probability and low S-allele richness were greater than independent effects for all demographic response variables except population persistence under high pollinator service (>50 %). At intermediate values of 15-25 % pollination probability, non-linear interactions with S-allele richness generated significant reductions in population performance beyond those expected by the simple additive effect of each independently. This was due to the impacts of reduced effective population size on the ability of populations to retain S alleles and maintain mate availability. Across a limited set of pollination and S-allele conditions (P = 0·15 and S = 20) populations with gametophytic SI showed reduced S-allele erosion relative to those with sporophytic SI, but this had limited effects on individual fecundity and translated into only modest increases in population persistence. Interactions between pollen limitation and loss of S alleles have the potential to significantly reduce the viability of populations of a few hundred plants. Population decline may occur more rapidly than expected when pollination probabilities drop below 25 % and S alleles are fewer than 20 due to non-additive interactions. These are likely to be common conditions experienced by plants in small populations in fragmented landscapes and are also those under which differences in response between gameptophytic and sporophtyic systems are observed.

Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

PubMed Central

Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini

2015-01-01

Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

PubMed

Heppell, Selina S; Heppell, Scott A; Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

2006-02-01

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.

A mechanistic model for the evolution of multicellularity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amado, André; Batista, Carlos; Campos, Paulo R. A.

2018-02-01

Through a mechanistic approach we investigate the formation of aggregates of variable sizes, accounting mechanisms of aggregation, dissociation, death and reproduction. In our model, cells can produce two metabolites, but the simultaneous production of both metabolites is costly in terms of fitness. Thus, the formation of larger groups can favor the aggregates to evolve to a configuration where division of labor arises. It is assumed that the states of the cells in a group are those that maximize organismal fitness. In the model it is considered that the groups can grow linearly, forming a chain, or compactly keeping a roughly spherical shape. Starting from a population consisting of single-celled organisms, we observe the formation of groups with variable sizes and usually much larger than two-cell aggregates. Natural selection can favor the formation of large groups, which allows the system to achieve new and larger fitness maxima.

On the Origin and Spread of the Scab Disease of Apple: Out of Central Asia

PubMed Central

Gladieux, Pierre; Zhang, Xiu-Guo; Afoufa-Bastien, Damien; Valdebenito Sanhueza, Rosa-Maria; Sbaghi, Mohamed; Le Cam, Bruno

2008-01-01

Background Venturia inaequalis is an ascomycete fungus responsible for apple scab, a disease that has invaded almost all apple growing regions worldwide, with the corresponding adverse effects on apple production. Monitoring and predicting the effectiveness of intervention strategies require knowledge of the origin, introduction pathways, and population biology of pathogen populations. Analysis of the variation of genetic markers using the inferential framework of population genetics offers the potential to retrieve this information. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we present a population genetic analysis of microsatellite variation in 1,273 strains of V. inaequalis representing 28 orchard samples from seven regions in five continents. Analysis of molecular variance revealed that most of the variation (88%) was distributed within localities, which is consistent with extensive historical migrations of the fungus among and within regions. Despite this shallow population structure, clustering analyses partitioned the data set into separate groups corresponding roughly to geography, indicating that each region hosts a distinct population of the fungus. Comparison of the levels of variability among populations, along with coalescent analyses of migration models and estimates of genetic distances, was consistent with a scenario in which the fungus emerged in Central Asia, where apple was domesticated, before its introduction into Europe and, more recently, into other continents with the expansion of apple growing. Across the novel range, levels of variability pointed to multiple introductions and all populations displayed signatures of significant post-introduction increases in population size. Most populations exhibited high genotypic diversity and random association of alleles across loci, indicating recombination both in native and introduced areas. Conclusions/Significance Venturia inaequalis is a model of invasive phytopathogenic fungus that has now reached the ultimate stage of the invasion process with a broad geographic distribution and well-established populations displaying high genetic variability, regular sexual reproduction, and demographic expansion. PMID:18197265

Needs and Challenges of Daily Life for People with Down Syndrome Residing in the City of Rome, Italy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertoli, M.; Biasini, G.; Calignano, M. T.; Celani, G.; De Grossi, G.; Digilio, M. C.; Fermariello, C. C.; Loffredo, G.; Luchino, F.; Marchese, A.; Mazotti, S.; Menghi, B.; Razzano, C.; Tiano, C.; Zambon Hobart, A.; Zampino, G.; Zuccala, G.

2011-01-01

Background: Population-based surveys on the quality of life of people with Down syndrome (DS) are difficult to perform because of ethical and legal policies regarding privacy and confidential information, but they are essential for service planning. Little is known about the sample size and variability of quality of life of people with DS living…

Validation of endoscopy for determination of maturity in small salmonids and sex of mature individuals

Treesearch

Erica A. Swenson; Amanda E. Rosenberger; Philip J. Howell

2007-01-01

Fish maturity status, sex ratio, and age and size at first maturity are important parameters in population assessments and life history studies. In most empirical studies of these variables, fish are sacrificed and dissected to obtain data. However, maturity status and the sex of mature individuals can be determined by inserting an endoscope through a small incision in...

An Analysis of Diet Quality, How It Controls Fatty Acid Profiles, Isotope Signatures and Stoichiometry in the Malaria Mosquito Anopheles arabiensis

PubMed Central

Hood-Nowotny, Rebecca; Schwarzinger, Bettina; Schwarzinger, Clemens; Soliban, Sharon; Madakacherry, Odessa; Aigner, Martina; Watzka, Margarete; Gilles, Jeremie

2012-01-01

Background Knowing the underlying mechanisms of mosquito ecology will ensure effective vector management and contribute to the overall goal of malaria control. Mosquito populations show a high degree of population plasticity in response to environmental variability. However, the principle factors controlling population size and fecundity are for the most part unknown. Larval habitat and diet play a crucial role in subsequent mosquito fitness. Developing the most competitive insects for sterile insect technique programmes requires a “production” orientated perspective, to deduce the most effective larval diet formulation; the information gained from this process offers us some insight into the mechanisms and processes taking place in natural native mosquito habitats. Methodology/Principal Findings Fatty acid profiles and de-novo or direct assimilation pathways, of whole-individual mosquitoes reared on a range of larval diets were determined using pyrolysis gas chromatograph/mass spectrometry. We used elemental analysis and isotope ratio mass spectrometry to measure individual-whole-body carbon, nitrogen and phosphorous values and to assess the impact of dietary quality on subsequent population stoichiometry, size, quality and isotopic signature. Diet had the greatest impact on fatty acid (FA) profiles of the mosquitoes, which exhibited a high degree of dietary routing, characteristic of generalist feeders. De-novo synthesis of a number of important FAs was observed. Mosquito C:N stoichiometry was fixed in the teneral stage. Dietary N content had significant influence on mosquito size, and P was shown to be a flexible pool which limited overall population size. Conclusions/Significance Direct routing of FAs was evident but there was ubiquitous de-novo synthesis suggesting mosquito larvae are competent generalist feeders capable of survival on diet with varying characteristics. It was concluded that nitrogen availability in the larval diet controlled teneral mosquito size and that teneral CN ratio is a sex- and species-specific fixed parameter. This finding has significant implications for overall mosquito competitiveness and environmental management. PMID:23133509

Body Size Changes Among National Collegiate Athletic Association New England Division III Football Players, 1956-2014: Comparison With Age-Matched Population Controls.

PubMed

Elliott, Kayla R; Harmatz, Jerold S; Zhao, Yanli; Greenblatt, David J

2016-05-01

Collegiate football programs encourage athletes to pursue high body weights. To examine position-dependent trends over time in body size characteristics among football players in the National Collegiate Athletic Association Division III New England Small College Athletic Conference (NESCAC) from 1956 to 2014 and to compare the observed absolute and relative changes with those in age-matched male population controls. Descriptive laboratory study. Medical school affiliated with a NESCAC institution. Football team rosters from the 10-member NESCAC schools, available as public documents, were analyzed along with body size data from general population males aged 20 to 29 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Body weight, height, and calculated body mass index were evaluated using analysis of variance, linear regression, and nonlinear regression to determine the distribution features of size variables and changes associated with time (year), school, and position. Among NESCAC linemen, absolute and relative changes over time in body weight and body mass index exceeded corresponding changes in the NHANES population controls. New England Small College Athletic Conference offensive linemen body weights increased by 37.5% from 1956 to 2014 (192 to 264 lb [86.4 to 118.8 kg]), compared with a 12% increase (164 to 184 lb [73.8 to 82.8 kg]) since 1961 in the NHANES population controls. Body mass index changed in parallel with body weight and exceeded 35 kg/m(2) in more than 30% of contemporary NESCAC offensive linemen. Among skill players in the NESCAC group, time-related changes in body size characteristics generally paralleled those in the NHANES controls. High body weight and body mass indices were evident in offensive linemen, even among those in Division III football programs with no athletic scholarships. These characteristics may be associated with adverse cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes. We need approaches to encourage risk modification in the postfootball lifestyles of these individuals.

Evolution of the genetic variability of eight French dairy cattle breeds assessed by pedigree analysis.

PubMed

Danchin-Burge, C; Leroy, G; Brochard, M; Moureaux, S; Verrier, E

2012-06-01

A pedigree analysis was performed on eight French dairy cattle breeds to assess their change in genetic variability since a first analysis completed in 1996. The Holstein, Normande and Montbéliarde breeds are selected internationally with over hundreds of thousands cows registered in the performance recording system. Three breeds are internationally selected but with limited numbers of cows in France (Brown Swiss, French Simmental and French Red Pied). The last two remaining breeds (Abondance and Tarentaise) are raised at regional level. The effective numbers of ancestors of cows born between 2004 and 2007 varied between 15 (Abondance and Tarentaise) and 51 (French Red Pied). The effective population sizes (classical approach) varied between 53 (Abondance) and 197 (French Red Pied). This article also compares the genetic variability of the ex situ (collections of the French National Cryobank) and in situ populations. The results were commented in regard to the recent history of gene flows in the different breeds as well as the existence of more or less stringent bottlenecks. Our results showed that whatever the size of the breeds, their genetic diversity impoverished quite rapidly since 1996 and they all could be considered as quite poor from a genetic diversity point of view. It shows the need for setting up cryobanks as gene reservoirs as well as sustainable breeding programmes that include loss of genetic diversity as an integrated control parameter. © 2011 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Bottom-up and climatic forcing on the worldwide population of leatherback turtles.

PubMed

Saba, Vincent S; Spotila, James R; Chavez, Francisco P; Musick, John A

2008-05-01

Nesting populations of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans are increasing or stable while those in the Pacific are declining. It has been suggested that leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific may be resource limited due to environmental variability derived from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this has yet to be tested. Here we explored bottom-up forcing and the responding reproductive output of nesting leatherbacks worldwide. We achieved this through an extensive review of leatherback nesting and migration data and by analyzing the spatial, temporal, and quantitative nature of resources as indicated by net primary production at post-nesting female migration and foraging areas. Leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific were the smallest in body size and had the lowest reproductive output due to less productive and inconsistent resources within their migration and foraging areas. This derived from natural interannual and multidecadal climate variability together with an influence of anthropogenic climate warming that is possibly affecting these natural cycles. The reproductive output of leatherbacks in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans was nearly twice that of turtles in the eastern Pacific. The inconsistent nature of the Pacific Ocean may also render western Pacific leatherbacks susceptible to a more variable reproductive output; however, it appears that egg harvesting on nesting beaches is their major threat. We suggest that the eastern Pacific leatherback population is more sensitive to anthropogenic mortality due to recruitment rates that are lower and more variable, thus accounting for much of the population differences compared to Atlantic and western Indian turtles.

Low reproductive isolation and highly variable levels of gene flow reveal limited progress towards speciation between European river and brook lampreys.

PubMed

Rougemont, Q; Gaigher, A; Lasne, E; Côte, J; Coke, M; Besnard, A-L; Launey, S; Evanno, G

2015-12-01

Ecologically based divergent selection is a factor that could drive reproductive isolation even in the presence of gene flow. Population pairs arrayed along a continuum of divergence provide a good opportunity to address this issue. Here, we used a combination of mating trials, experimental crosses and population genetic analyses to investigate the evolution of reproductive isolation between two closely related species of lampreys with distinct life histories. We used microsatellite markers to genotype over 1000 individuals of the migratory parasitic river lamprey (Lampetra fluviatilis) and freshwater-resident nonparasitic brook lamprey (Lampetra planeri) distributed in 10 sympatric and parapatric population pairs in France. Mating trials, parentage analyses and artificial fertilizations demonstrated a low level of reproductive isolation between species even though size-assortative mating may contribute to isolation. Most parapatric population pairs were strongly differentiated due to the joint effects of geographic distance and barriers to migration. In contrast, we found variable levels of gene flow between sympatric populations ranging from panmixia to moderate differentiation, which indicates a gradient of divergence with some population pairs that may correspond to alternative morphs or ecotypes of a single species and others that remain partially isolated. Ecologically based divergent selection may explain these variable levels of divergence among sympatric population pairs, but incomplete genome swamping following secondary contact could have also played a role. Overall, this study illustrates how highly differentiated phenotypes can be maintained despite high levels of gene flow that limit the progress towards speciation. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

A Variable-Instar Climate-Driven Individual Beetle-Based Phenology Model for the Invasive Asian Longhorned Beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae).

PubMed

Trotter, R Talbot; Keena, Melody A

2016-12-01

Efforts to manage and eradicate invasive species can benefit from an improved understanding of the physiology, biology, and behavior of the target species, and ongoing efforts to eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) highlight the roles this information may play. Here, we present a climate-driven phenology model for A. glabripennis that provides simulated life-tables for populations of individual beetles under variable climatic conditions that takes into account the variable number of instars beetles may undergo as larvae. Phenology parameters in the model are based on a synthesis of published data and studies of A. glabripennis, and the model output was evaluated using a laboratory-reared population maintained under varying temperatures mimicking those typical of Central Park in New York City. The model was stable under variations in population size, simulation length, and the Julian dates used to initiate individual beetles within the population. Comparison of model results with previously published field-based phenology studies in native and invasive populations indicates both this new phenology model, and the previously published heating-degree-day model show good agreement in the prediction of the beginning of the flight season for adults. However, the phenology model described here avoids underpredicting the cumulative emergence of adults through the season, in addition to providing tables of life stages and estimations of voltinism for local populations. This information can play a key role in evaluating risk by predicting the potential for population growth, and may facilitate the optimization of management and eradication efforts. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

An indirect estimation of the population size of students with high-risk behaviors in select universities of medical sciences: A network scale-up study.

PubMed

Sajjadi, Homeira; Jorjoran Shushtari, Zahra; Shati, Mohsen; Salimi, Yahya; Dejman, Masoomeh; Vameghi, Meroe; Karimi, Salahedin; Mahmoodi, Zohreh

2018-01-01

Network scale-up is one of the most important indirect methods of estimating the size of clandestine populations and people with high-risk behaviors. The present study is an indirect estimation of the population size of students with high-risk behaviors in select universities of medical sciences. A total of 801 students from two University of Medical Sciences at Tehran and Alborz University of Medical Sciences were selected through convenience sampling. Six subgroups of high-risk behaviors were examined in the study, including Tramadol use, cannabis use, opium use, alcohol consumption, extramarital heterosexual intercourse, and heterosexual intercourse in return for money. To estimate the social network size in the study population, each participant was asked to name their close student friends from the two select universities. Data were collected using a checklist designed for this purpose. The participants' mean number of close friends from the selected medical universities was C = 8.14 (CI: 7.54-8.75). Within these social networks, friends with extramarital heterosexual intercourse (5.53%) and friends who consumed alcohol (4.92%) had the highest frequency, and friends who used opium (0.33%) had the lowest frequency. The variables of age, gender, marital status, type of residence and academic degree were significantly related to the likelihood of having close friends with certain high-risk behaviors (P<0.001). According to the results obtained, alcohol consumption and extramarital heterosexual intercourse are very common among students. Special HIV prevention programs are therefore necessary for this age group.

Evidence, models, conservation programs and limits to management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.

2012-01-01

Walsh et al. (2012) emphasized the importance of obtaining evidence to assess the effects of management actions on state variables relevant to objectives of conservation programs. They focused on malleefowl Leipoa ocellata, ground-dwelling Australian megapodes listed as vulnerable. They noted that although fox Vulpes vulpes baiting is the main management action used in malleefowl conservation throughout southern Australia, evidence of the effectiveness of this action is limited and currently debated. Walsh et al. (2012) then used data from 64 sites monitored for malleefowl and foxes over 23 years to assess key functional relationships relevant to fox control as a conservation action for malleefowl. In one set of analyses, Walsh et al. (2012) focused on two relationships: fox baiting investment versus fox presence, and fox presence versus malleefowl population size and rate of population change. Results led to the counterintuitive conclusion that increases in investments in fox control produced slight decreases in malleefowl population size and growth. In a second set of analyses, Walsh et al. (2012) directly assessed the relationship between investment in fox baiting and malleefowl population size and rate of population change. This set of analyses showed no significant relationship between investment in fox population control and malleefowl population growth. Both sets of analyses benefited from the incorporation of key environmental covariates hypothesized to influence these management relationships. Walsh et al. (2012) concluded that "in most situations, malleefowl conservation did not effectively benefit from fox baiting at current levels of investment." In this commentary, I discuss the work of Walsh et al. (2012) using the conceptual framework of structured decision making (SDM). In doing so, I accept their analytic results and associated conclusions as accurate and discuss basic ideas about evidence, conservation and limits to management.

Impact of strong selection for the PrP major gene on genetic variability of four French sheep breeds (Open Access publication)

PubMed Central

Palhiere, Isabelle; Brochard, Mickaël; Moazami-Goudarzi, Katayoun; Laloë, Denis; Amigues, Yves; Bed'hom, Bertrand; Neuts, Étienne; Leymarie, Cyril; Pantano, Thais; Cribiu, Edmond Paul; Bibé, Bernard; Verrier, Étienne

2008-01-01

Effective selection on the PrP gene has been implemented since October 2001 in all French sheep breeds. After four years, the ARR "resistant" allele frequency increased by about 35% in young males. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of this strong selection on genetic variability. It is focussed on four French sheep breeds and based on the comparison of two groups of 94 animals within each breed: the first group of animals was born before the selection began, and the second, 3–4 years later. Genetic variability was assessed using genealogical and molecular data (29 microsatellite markers). The expected loss of genetic variability on the PrP gene was confirmed. Moreover, among the five markers located in the PrP region, only the three closest ones were affected. The evolution of the number of alleles, heterozygote deficiency within population, expected heterozygosity and the Reynolds distances agreed with the criteria from pedigree and pointed out that neutral genetic variability was not much affected. This trend depended on breed, i.e. on their initial states (population size, PrP frequencies) and on the selection strategies for improving scrapie resistance while carrying out selection for production traits. PMID:18990357

Salix transect of Europe: variation in ploidy and genome size in willow-associated common nettle, Urtica dioica L. sens. lat., from Greece to arctic Norway

PubMed Central

Hidalgo, Oriane; Pellicer, Jaume; Percy, Diana; Leitch, Ilia J.

2016-01-01

Abstract Background The common stinging nettle, Urtica dioica L. sensu lato, is an invertebrate "superhost", its clonal patches maintaining large populations of insects and molluscs. It is extremely widespread in Europe and highly variable, and two ploidy levels (diploid and tetraploid) are known. However, geographical patterns in cytotype variation require further study. New information We assembled a collection of nettles in conjunction with a transect of Europe from the Aegean to Arctic Norway (primarily conducted to examine the diversity of Salix and Salix-associated insects). Using flow cytometry to measure genome size, our sample of 29 plants reveals 5 diploids and 24 tetraploids. Two diploids were found in SE Europe (Bulgaria and Romania) and three diploids in S. Finland. More detailed cytotype surveys in these regions are suggested. The tetraploid genome size (2C value) varied between accessions from 2.36 to 2.59 pg. The diploids varied from 1.31 to 1.35 pg per 2C nucleus, equivalent to a haploid genome size of c. 650 Mbp. Within the tetraploids, we find that the most northerly samples (from N. Finland and arctic Norway) have a generally higher genome size. This is possibly indicative of a distinct population in this region. PMID:27932918

Salix transect of Europe: variation in ploidy and genome size in willow-associated common nettle, Urtica dioica L. sens. lat., from Greece to arctic Norway.

PubMed

Cronk, Quentin; Hidalgo, Oriane; Pellicer, Jaume; Percy, Diana; Leitch, Ilia J

2016-01-01

The common stinging nettle, Urtica dioica L. sensu lato, is an invertebrate "superhost", its clonal patches maintaining large populations of insects and molluscs. It is extremely widespread in Europe and highly variable, and two ploidy levels (diploid and tetraploid) are known. However, geographical patterns in cytotype variation require further study. We assembled a collection of nettles in conjunction with a transect of Europe from the Aegean to Arctic Norway (primarily conducted to examine the diversity of Salix and Salix -associated insects). Using flow cytometry to measure genome size, our sample of 29 plants reveals 5 diploids and 24 tetraploids. Two diploids were found in SE Europe (Bulgaria and Romania) and three diploids in S. Finland. More detailed cytotype surveys in these regions are suggested. The tetraploid genome size (2C value) varied between accessions from 2.36 to 2.59 pg. The diploids varied from 1.31 to 1.35 pg per 2C nucleus, equivalent to a haploid genome size of c. 650 Mbp. Within the tetraploids, we find that the most northerly samples (from N. Finland and arctic Norway) have a generally higher genome size. This is possibly indicative of a distinct population in this region.

Decline in top predator body size and changing climate alter trophic structure in an oceanic ecosystem.

PubMed

Shackell, Nancy L; Frank, Kenneth T; Fisher, Jonathan A D; Petrie, Brian; Leggett, William C

2010-05-07

Globally, overfishing large-bodied groundfish populations has resulted in substantial increases in their prey populations. Where it has been examined, the effects of overfishing have cascaded down the food chain. In an intensively fished area on the western Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic, the biomass of prey species increased exponentially (doubling time of 11 years) even though the aggregate biomass of their predators remained stable over 38 years. Concomitant reductions in herbivorous zooplankton and increases in phytoplankton were also evident. This anomalous trophic pattern led us to examine how declines in predator body size (approx. 60% in body mass since the early 1970s) and climatic regime influenced lower trophic levels. The increase in prey biomass was associated primarily with declines in predator body size and secondarily to an increase in stratification. Sea surface temperature and predator biomass had no influence. A regression model explained 65 per cent of prey biomass variability. Trait-mediated effects, namely a reduction in predator size, resulted in a weakening of top predation pressure. Increased stratification may have enhanced growing conditions for prey fish. Size-selective harvesting under changing climatic conditions initiated a trophic restructuring of the food chain, the effects of which may have influenced three trophic levels.

A Statistical Analysis of the Economic Drivers of Battery Energy Storage in Commercial Buildings: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, Matthew; Simpkins, Travis; Cutler, Dylan

There is significant interest in using battery energy storage systems (BESS) to reduce peak demand charges, and therefore the life cycle cost of electricity, in commercial buildings. This paper explores the drivers of economic viability of BESS in commercial buildings through statistical analysis. A sample population of buildings was generated, a techno-economic optimization model was used to size and dispatch the BESS, and the resulting optimal BESS sizes were analyzed for relevant predictor variables. Explanatory regression analyses were used to demonstrate that peak demand charges are the most significant predictor of an economically viable battery, and that the shape ofmore » the load profile is the most significant predictor of the size of the battery.« less

A Statistical Analysis of the Economic Drivers of Battery Energy Storage in Commercial Buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, Matthew; Simpkins, Travis; Cutler, Dylan

There is significant interest in using battery energy storage systems (BESS) to reduce peak demand charges, and therefore the life cycle cost of electricity, in commercial buildings. This paper explores the drivers of economic viability of BESS in commercial buildings through statistical analysis. A sample population of buildings was generated, a techno-economic optimization model was used to size and dispatch the BESS, and the resulting optimal BESS sizes were analyzed for relevant predictor variables. Explanatory regression analyses were used to demonstrate that peak demand charges are the most significant predictor of an economically viable battery, and that the shape ofmore » the load profile is the most significant predictor of the size of the battery.« less

Identifying PHM market and network opportunities.

PubMed

Grube, Mark E; Krishnaswamy, Anand; Poziemski, John; York, Robert W

2015-11-01

Two key processes for healthcare organizations seeking to assume a financially sustainable role in population health management (PHM), after laying the groundwork for the effort, are to identify potential PHM market opportunities and determine the scope of the PHM network. Key variables organizations should consider with respect to market opportunities include the patient population, the overall insurance/employer market, and available types of insurance products. Regarding the network's scope, organizations should consider both traditional strategic criteria for a viable network and at least five additional criteria: network essentiality and PHM care continuum, network adequacy, service distribution right-sizing, network growth strategy, and organizational agility.

Rates of molecular evolution in tree ferns are associated with body size, environmental temperature, and biological productivity.

PubMed

Barrera-Redondo, Josué; Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; Eguiarte, Luis E

2018-05-01

Variation in rates of molecular evolution (heterotachy) is a common phenomenon among plants. Although multiple theoretical models have been proposed, fundamental questions remain regarding the combined effects of ecological and morphological traits on rate heterogeneity. Here, we used tree ferns to explore the correlation between rates of molecular evolution in chloroplast DNA sequences and several morphological and environmental factors within a Bayesian framework. We revealed direct and indirect effects of body size, biological productivity, and temperature on substitution rates, where smaller tree ferns living in warmer and less productive environments tend to have faster rates of molecular evolution. In addition, we found that variation in the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitution rates (dN/dS) in the chloroplast rbcL gene was significantly correlated with ecological and morphological variables. Heterotachy in tree ferns may be influenced by effective population size associated with variation in body size and productivity. Macroevolutionary hypotheses should go beyond explaining heterotachy in terms of mutation rates and instead, should integrate population-level factors to better understand the processes affecting the tempo of evolution at the molecular level. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

From individuals to populations to communities: a dynamic energy budget model of marine ecosystem size-spectrum including life history diversity.

PubMed

Maury, Olivier; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe

2013-05-07

Individual metabolism, predator-prey relationships, and the role of biodiversity are major factors underlying the dynamics of food webs and their response to environmental variability. Despite their crucial, complementary and interacting influences, they are usually not considered simultaneously in current marine ecosystem models. In an attempt to fill this gap and determine if these factors and their interaction are sufficient to allow realistic community structure and dynamics to emerge, we formulate a mathematical model of the size-structured dynamics of marine communities which integrates mechanistically individual, population and community levels. The model represents the transfer of energy generated in both time and size by an infinite number of interacting fish species spanning from very small to very large species. It is based on standard individual level assumptions of the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB) as well as important ecological processes such as opportunistic size-based predation and competition for food. Resting on the inter-specific body-size scaling relationships of the DEB theory, the diversity of life-history traits (i.e. biodiversity) is explicitly integrated. The stationary solutions of the model as well as the transient solutions arising when environmental signals (e.g. variability of primary production and temperature) propagate through the ecosystem are studied using numerical simulations. It is shown that in the absence of density-dependent feedback processes, the model exhibits unstable oscillations. Density-dependent schooling probability and schooling-dependent predatory and disease mortalities are proposed to be important stabilizing factors allowing stationary solutions to be reached. At the community level, the shape and slope of the obtained quasi-linear stationary spectrum matches well with empirical studies. When oscillations of primary production are simulated, the model predicts that the variability propagates along the spectrum in a given frequency-dependent size range before decreasing for larger sizes. At the species level, the simulations show that small and large species dominate the community successively (small species being more abundant at small sizes and large species being more abundant at large sizes) and that the total biomass of a species decreases with its maximal size which again corroborates empirical studies. Our results indicate that the simultaneous consideration of individual growth and reproduction, size-structured trophic interactions, the diversity of life-history traits and a density-dependent stabilizing process allow realistic community structure and dynamics to emerge without any arbitrary prescription. As a logical consequence of our model construction and a basis for future studies, we define the function Φ as the relative contribution of each species to the total biomass of the ecosystem, for any given size. We argue that this function is a measure of the functional role of biodiversity characterizing the impact of the structure of the community (its species composition) on its function (the relative proportions of losses, dissipation and biological work). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of tumor size on breast cancer-specific survival stratified by joint hormone receptor status in a SEER population-based study

PubMed Central

Zheng, Yi-Zi; Wang, Lei; Hu, Xin; Shao, Zhi-Ming

2015-01-01

Background & Aims The prognostic value of tumor size is variable. We aimed to characterize the interaction between tumor size and hormone receptor (HoR) status to determine breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM). Methods We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry to identify 328, 870 female patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer from 1990 through 2010. Primary study variables included tumor size, joint HoR status and their corresponding relationship. Kaplan-Meier and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models with interaction terms were utilized. Results The multivariable analysis revealed a significant interaction between tumor size and HoR status (P < 0.001). Using tumors 61–70 mm in size as the reference for estrogen receptor-negative (ER−) and progesterone receptor-negative (PR−) disease, the hazard ratio (HR) for BCSM increased with increasing tumor size across nearly all categories. In the ER-positive (ER+) and PR-positive (PR+) group, however, patients with tumors > 50 mm had nearly identical BCSM rates (P = 0.127, P = 0.099 and P = 0.370 for 51–60 mm, 71–80 mm and > 80 mm tumors, respectively), whereas BCSM was positively correlated with tumors < 51 mm. Conclusions The observation of identical HRs for BCSM among patients with ER+ and PR+ tumors >50 mm underscores the importance of individualized treatment. Our findings may contribute to a better understanding of breast cancer biology. PMID:26036636

Geographic variation of life-history traits in the sand lizard, Lacerta agilis: testing Darwin's fecundity-advantage hypothesis.

PubMed

Roitberg, E S; Eplanova, G V; Kotenko, T I; Amat, F; Carretero, M A; Kuranova, V N; Bulakhova, N A; Zinenko, O I; Yakovlev, V A

2015-03-01

The fecundity-advantage hypothesis (FAH) explains larger female size relative to male size as a correlated response to fecundity selection. We explored FAH by investigating geographic variation in female reproductive output and its relation to sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in Lacerta agilis, an oviparous lizard occupying a major part of temperate Eurasia. We analysed how sex-specific body size and SSD are associated with two putative indicators of fecundity selection intensity (clutch size and the slope of the clutch size-female size relationship) and with two climatic variables throughout the species range and across two widespread evolutionary lineages. Variation within the lineages provides no support for FAH. In contrast, the divergence between the lineages is in line with FAH: the lineage with consistently female-biased SSD (L. a. agilis) exhibits higher clutch size and steeper fecundity slope than the lineage with an inconsistent and variable SSD (L. a. exigua). L. a. agilis shows lower offspring size (egg mass, hatchling mass) and higher clutch mass relative to female mass than L. a. exigua, that is both possible ways to enhance offspring number are exerted. As the SSD difference is due to male size (smaller males in L. a. agilis), fecundity selection favouring larger females, together with viability selection for smaller size in both sexes, would explain the female-biased SSD and reproductive characteristics of L. a. agilis. The pattern of intraspecific life-history divergence in L. agilis is strikingly similar to that between oviparous and viviparous populations of a related species Zootoca vivipara. Evolutionary implications of this parallelism are discussed. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Family-based association study between monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) gene promoter VNTR polymorphism and Tourette's syndrome in Chinese Han population.

PubMed

Liu, Shiguo; Wang, Xueqin; Xu, Longqiang; Zheng, Lanlan; Ge, Yinlin; Ma, Xu

2015-02-01

To clarify the association of monoamine oxidase A- variable number of tandem repeat (MAOA-pVNTR) with susceptibility to Tourette's syndrome (TS) in Chinese Han population we discuss the genetic contribution of MAOA-VNTR in 141 TS patients including all their parents in Chinese Han population using transmission disequilibrium test (TDT) design. Our results revealed that no significant association was found in the MAOA gene promoter VNTR polymorphism and TS in Chinese Han population (TDT = 1.515, df = 1, p > 0.05). The negative result may be mainly due to the small sample size, but we don't deny the role of gene coding serotonergic or monoaminergic structures in the etiology of TS.

Relationship between habitat type, fire frequency, and Amblyomma americanum populations in east-central Alabama.

PubMed

Willis, Damien; Carter, Robert; Murdock, Chris; Blair, Benjie

2012-12-01

Ticks were collected from 20 sites in the Calhoun, Cherokee, and Cleburne Counties in east-central Alabama areas to determine the relationship between plant physiognomy, environmental variables, and tick populations. Sites investigated included various burning regimes, wildland-urban-interface (WUI), a college campus, and an unmanaged area. Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae) dominated the tick population while Ixodes scapularis Say was not encountered. There were complex differences in tick populations among site conditions. After prescribed burning, the tick population size was small but was larger in subsequent 2- and 5-year post-burn sites. An increase in Odocoileus virginianus foraging in recently burned sites is likely responsible for this phenomenon. WUI areas had the largest tick populations likely due to Odocoileus virginianus activity in an area that provides cover, forage, and a connection to a wildlife refuge. It is possible that the likelihood of humans coming in contact with ticks and tick-borne diseases is greater in WUI areas than in unbroken contiguous forest. A. americanum showed a positive correlation with percent cover of grass and leaf litter mass and a negative relationship with pine sapling density. Variables expected to be strongly correlated with A. americanum populations such as soil moisture, canopy closure, and tree density were found to have weak correlations. © 2012 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schamber, Jason L.; Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Wilson, Heather M.; Morse, Julie A.

2009-01-01

Population estimates for long-tailed ducks in North America have declined by nearly 50% over the past 30 years. Life history and population dynamics of this species are difficult to ascertain, because the birds nest at low densities across a broad range of habitat types. Between 1991 and 2004, we collected information on productivity and survival of long-tailed ducks at three locations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Clutch size averaged 7.1 eggs, and nesting success averaged 30%. Duckling survival to 30 days old averaged 10% but was highly variable among years, ranging from 0% to 25%. Apparent annual survival of adult females based on mark-recapture of nesting females was estimated at 74%. We combined these estimates of survival and productivity into a matrix-based population model, which predicted an annual population decline of 19%. Elasticities indicated that population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival. Further, the relatively high sensitivity of λ to duckling survival suggests that low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity in some years. These data represent the first attempt to synthesize a population model for this species. Although our analyses were hampered by the small sample sizes inherent in studying a dispersed nesting species, our model provides a basis for management actions and can be enhanced as additional data become available.

Genetic Status and Timing of a Weevil Introduction to Santa Cruz Island, Galápagos

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Successful invasive species can overcome or circumvent the potential genetic loss caused by an introduction bottleneck through a rapid population expansion and admixture from multiple introductions. We explore the genetic makeup and the timing of a species introduction to Santa Cruz Island in the Galápagos archipelago. We investigate the presence of processes that can maintain genetic diversity in populations of the broad-nosed weevil Galapaganus howdenae howdenae. Analyses of combined genotypes for 8 microsatellite loci showed evidence of past population size reductions through moment and likelihood-based estimators. No evidence of admixture through multiple introductions was found, but substantial current population sizes (N0 298, 95% credible limits 50–2300), genetic diversity comparable with long-established endemics (Mean number of alleles = 3.875), and lack of genetic structure across the introduced range (F ST = 0.01359) could suggest that foundations are in place for populations to rapidly recover any loss of genetic variability. The time estimates for the introduction into Santa Cruz support an accidental transfer during the colonization period (1832–1959) predating the spurt in human population growth. Our evaluation of the genetic status of G. h. howdenae suggests potential for population growth in addition to our field observations of a concurrent expansion in range and feeding preferences towards protected areas and endemic host plants. PMID:24399746

Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

2014-01-01

Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are susceptible to declines now and into the future. Increases in environmental variability, deterministic changes in habitat conditions or stressors, or a single catastrophic event could all have immediately deleterious impacts on the long-term growth trajectory of these populations.

Habitat traits and patterns of abundance of the purple sea urchin, Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck, 1816), at multiple scales along the north Portuguese coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez, Rula; Domínguez Godino, Jorge; Freitas, Cristiano; Machado, Inês; Bertocci, Iacopo

2015-03-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of abundance and distribution of sea urchins (Paracentrotus lividus) from intertidal rockpools of the north Portuguese coast were examined in relation to physical (surface, altitude, depth, topographic complexity and exposure) and biological (substrate cover by dominant organisms) habitat traits. The methodology was based on a multi-factorial design where the total number and the abundance of urchins in each of six size classes were sampled over a range of spatial scales, from 10s of cm to kms, and a temporal scale of five months. The results highlighted three main features of the studied system: (1) the largest proportion of variability of sea urchins occurred at the smallest scale examined; (2) urchins from different size classes showed different patterns of abundance in relation to habitat traits; (3) variables normally invoked as potential drivers of distribution of urchins at a range of scales, such as hydrodynamics and shore height, were relatively less important than other abiotic (i.e. pool area, pool mean depth calculated over five replicate measures and sand cover) and biological (i.e. space occupancy by the reef-forming polychaete Sabellaria alveolata and mussels vs. availability of bare rock) variables to provide a considerable contribution to the variability of sea urchins. Intertidal populations of sea urchins are abundant on many rocky shores, where they are socially and economically important as food resource and ecologically key as habitat modelers. This study provides new clues on relatively unstudied populations, with relevant implications for possible management decisions, including the implementation of protection schemes able to preserve the main recruitment, settlement and development areas of P. lividus.

Frog eat frog: exploring variables influencing anurophagy.

PubMed

Measey, G John; Vimercati, Giovanni; de Villiers, F André; Mokhatla, Mohlamatsane M; Davies, Sarah J; Edwards, Shelley; Altwegg, Res

2015-01-01

Background. Frogs are generalist predators of a wide range of typically small prey items. But descriptions of dietary items regularly include other anurans, such that frogs are considered to be among the most important of anuran predators. However, the only existing hypothesis for the inclusion of anurans in the diet of post-metamorphic frogs postulates that it happens more often in bigger frogs. Moreover, this hypothesis has yet to be tested. Methods. We reviewed the literature on frog diet in order to test the size hypothesis and determine whether there are other putative explanations for anurans in the diet of post-metamorphic frogs. In addition to size, we recorded the habitat, the number of other sympatric anuran species, and whether or not the population was invasive. We controlled for taxonomic bias by including the superfamily in our analysis. Results. Around one fifth of the 355 records included anurans as dietary items of populations studied, suggesting that frogs eating anurans is not unusual. Our data showed a clear taxonomic bias with ranids and pipids having a higher proportion of anuran prey than other superfamilies. Accounting for this taxonomic bias, we found that size in addition to being invasive, local anuran diversity, and habitat produced a model that best fitted our data. Large invasive frogs that live in forests with high anuran diversity are most likely to have a higher proportion of anurans in their diet. Conclusions. We confirm the validity of the size hypothesis for anurophagy, but show that there are additional significant variables. The circumstances under which frogs eat frogs are likely to be complex, but our data may help to alert conservationists to the possible dangers of invading frogs entering areas with threatened anuran species.

Frog eat frog: exploring variables influencing anurophagy

PubMed Central

Vimercati, Giovanni; de Villiers, F. André; Mokhatla, Mohlamatsane M.; Davies, Sarah J.; Edwards, Shelley; Altwegg, Res

2015-01-01

Background. Frogs are generalist predators of a wide range of typically small prey items. But descriptions of dietary items regularly include other anurans, such that frogs are considered to be among the most important of anuran predators. However, the only existing hypothesis for the inclusion of anurans in the diet of post-metamorphic frogs postulates that it happens more often in bigger frogs. Moreover, this hypothesis has yet to be tested. Methods. We reviewed the literature on frog diet in order to test the size hypothesis and determine whether there are other putative explanations for anurans in the diet of post-metamorphic frogs. In addition to size, we recorded the habitat, the number of other sympatric anuran species, and whether or not the population was invasive. We controlled for taxonomic bias by including the superfamily in our analysis. Results. Around one fifth of the 355 records included anurans as dietary items of populations studied, suggesting that frogs eating anurans is not unusual. Our data showed a clear taxonomic bias with ranids and pipids having a higher proportion of anuran prey than other superfamilies. Accounting for this taxonomic bias, we found that size in addition to being invasive, local anuran diversity, and habitat produced a model that best fitted our data. Large invasive frogs that live in forests with high anuran diversity are most likely to have a higher proportion of anurans in their diet. Conclusions. We confirm the validity of the size hypothesis for anurophagy, but show that there are additional significant variables. The circumstances under which frogs eat frogs are likely to be complex, but our data may help to alert conservationists to the possible dangers of invading frogs entering areas with threatened anuran species. PMID:26336644

Current Evidence on Heart Rate Variability Biofeedback as a Complementary Anticraving Intervention.

PubMed

Alayan, Nour; Eller, Lucille; Bates, Marsha E; Carmody, Dennis P

2018-05-21

The limited success of conventional anticraving interventions encourages research into new treatment strategies. Heart rate variability biofeedback (HRVB), which is based on slowed breathing, was shown to improve symptom severity in various disorders. HRVB, and certain rates of controlled breathing (CB), may offer therapeutic potential as a complementary drug-free treatment option to help control substance craving. This review evaluated current evidence on the effectiveness of HRVB and CB training as a complementary anticraving intervention, based on guidelines from the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols. Studies that assessed a cardiorespiratory feedback or CB intervention with substance craving as an outcome were selected. Effect sizes were calculated for each study. The Scale for Assessing Scientific Quality of Investigations in Complementary and Alternative Medicine was used to evaluate the quality of each study reviewed. A total of eight articles remained for final review, including controlled studies with or without randomization, as well as noncontrolled trials. Most studies showed positive results with a variety of methodological quality levels and effect size. Current HRVB studies rated moderately on methodological rigor and showed inconsistent magnitudes of calculated effect size (0.074-0.727) across populations. The largest effect size was found in a nonclinical college population of high food cravers utilizing the most intensive HRVB training time of 240 min. Despite the limitations of this review, there is beginning evidence that HRVB and CB training can be of significant therapeutic potential. Larger clinical trials are needed with methodological improvements such as longer treatment duration, adequate control conditions, measures of adherence and compliance, longitudinal examination of craving changes, and more comprehensive methods of craving measurement.

Spatiotemporal analysis of gene flow in Chesapeake Bay Diamondback Terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Paul E.; Kuchta, Shawn R; Roosenburg, Willem R; Henry, Paula F.; Haramis, G. Michael; King, Timothy L.

2015-01-01

There is widespread concern regarding the impacts of anthropogenic activities on connectivity among populations of plants and animals, and understanding how contemporary and historical processes shape metapopulation dynamics is crucial for setting appropriate conservation targets. We used genetic data to identify population clusters and quantify gene flow over historical and contemporary time frames in the Diamondback Terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin). This species has a long and complicated history with humans, including commercial over-harvesting and subsequent translocation events during the early twentieth century. Today, terrapins face threats from habitat loss and mortality in fisheries bycatch. To evaluate population structure and gene flow among Diamondback Terrapin populations in the Chesapeake Bay region, we sampled 617 individuals from 15 localities, and screened individuals at 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Our goals were to demarcate metapopulation structure, quantify genetic diversity, estimate effective population sizes, and document temporal changes in gene flow. We found that terrapins in the Chesapeake Bay region harbor high levels of genetic diversity and form four populations. Effective population sizes were variable. Among most population comparisons, estimates of historical and contemporary terrapin gene flow were generally low (m ≈ 0.01). However, we detected a substantial increase in contemporary gene flow into Chesapeake Bay from populations outside the bay, as well as between two populations within Chesapeake Bay, possibly as a consequence of translocations during the early twentieth century. Our study shows that inferences across multiple time scales are needed to evaluate population connectivity, especially as recent changes may identify threats to population persistence.

Investigation of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum strains variability in Brazil.

PubMed

Abreu, M J; Souza, E A

2015-06-18

White mold is a common bean disease caused by the fungus Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, resulting in economic losses in Brazil and worldwide. Lack of knowledge about the population structure of the pathogen makes it difficult to control the disease. The aim of this study was to characterize strains of S. sclerotiorum obtained from ex-perimental and commercial common bean fields in Brazil. We analyzed 50 strains of S. sclerotiorum collected at several locations in the state of Minas Gerais. The strains were characterized according to their ability and time for developing apothecia. Morphological and physiological analyses such as the mycelial growth index, colony color, the time re-quired to form the first sclerotia on media, the number of sclerotia per plate, average sclerotium size, and sclerotium shape were performed. We determined the mycelial compatibility, conducted molecular analy-sis of microsatellites, and evaluated the aggressiveness of 28 strains. Most strains had the ability to form apothecia. A small group of strains showed mycelial compatibility, and the strains showed different aggres-siveness levels. Overall, the population studied here demonstrated wide variability based on the morphological, physiological, and molecular traits analyzed. The average size and shape of sclerotia presented a cor-relation of 0.617, whereas the times required to form sclerotia and the number of sclerotia per plate showed a correlation of -0.455. The char-acterization of the pathogen population described herein will provide an important tool for promoting the development of bean cultivars re-sistant to white mold.

Climatic and geographic predictors of life history variation in Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus): A range-wide synthesis

PubMed Central

King, Richard B.; Adamski, John M.; Anton, Thomas G.; Bailey, Robyn L.; Baker, Sarah J.; Bieser, Nickolas D.; Bell, Thomas A.; Bissell, Kristin M.; Bradke, Danielle R.; Campa, Henry; Casper, Gary S.; Cedar, Karen; Cross, Matthew D.; DeGregorio, Brett A.; Dreslik, Michael J.; Faust, Lisa J.; Harvey, Daniel S.; Hay, Robert W.; Jellen, Benjamin C.; Johnson, Brent D.; Johnson, Glenn; Kiel, Brooke D.; Kingsbury, Bruce A.; Kowalski, Matthew J.; Lee, Yu Man; Lentini, Andrew M.; Marshall, John C.; Mauger, David; Moore, Jennifer A.; Paloski, Rori A.; Phillips, Christopher A.; Pratt, Paul D.; Preney, Thomas; Prior, Kent A.; Promaine, Andrew; Redmer, Michael; Reinert, Howard K.; Rouse, Jeremy D.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Sutton, Scott; VanDeWalle, Terry J.; Weatherhead, Patrick J.; Wynn, Doug; Yagi, Anne

2017-01-01

Elucidating how life history traits vary geographically is important to understanding variation in population dynamics. Because many aspects of ectotherm life history are climate-dependent, geographic variation in climate is expected to have a large impact on population dynamics through effects on annual survival, body size, growth rate, age at first reproduction, size–fecundity relationship, and reproductive frequency. The Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus) is a small, imperiled North American rattlesnake with a distribution centered on the Great Lakes region, where lake effects strongly influence local conditions. To address Eastern Massasauga life history data gaps, we compiled data from 47 study sites representing 38 counties across the range. We used multimodel inference and general linear models with geographic coordinates and annual climate normals as explanatory variables to clarify patterns of variation in life history traits. We found strong evidence for geographic variation in six of nine life history variables. Adult female snout-vent length and neonate mass increased with increasing mean annual precipitation. Litter size decreased with increasing mean temperature, and the size–fecundity relationship and growth prior to first hibernation both increased with increasing latitude. The proportion of gravid females also increased with increasing latitude, but this relationship may be the result of geographically varying detection bias. Our results provide insights into ectotherm life history variation and fill critical data gaps, which will inform Eastern Massasauga conservation efforts by improving biological realism for models of population viability and climate change. PMID:28196149

Inferring time derivatives including cell growth rates using Gaussian processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Peter S.; Stevenson, Keiran; Leary, Allen; Montano-Gutierrez, Luis F.; Clark, Ivan B. N.; Vogel, Jackie; Pilizota, Teuta

2016-12-01

Often the time derivative of a measured variable is of as much interest as the variable itself. For a growing population of biological cells, for example, the population's growth rate is typically more important than its size. Here we introduce a non-parametric method to infer first and second time derivatives as a function of time from time-series data. Our approach is based on Gaussian processes and applies to a wide range of data. In tests, the method is at least as accurate as others, but has several advantages: it estimates errors both in the inference and in any summary statistics, such as lag times, and allows interpolation with the corresponding error estimation. As illustrations, we infer growth rates of microbial cells, the rate of assembly of an amyloid fibril and both the speed and acceleration of two separating spindle pole bodies. Our algorithm should thus be broadly applicable.

Fishing and temperature effects on the size structure of exploited fish stocks.

PubMed

Tu, Chen-Yi; Chen, Kuan-Ting; Hsieh, Chih-Hao

2018-05-08

Size structure of fish stock plays an important role in maintaining sustainability of the population. Size distribution of an exploited stock is predicted to shift toward small individuals caused by size-selective fishing and/or warming; however, their relative contribution remains relatively unexplored. In addition, existing analyses on size structure have focused on univariate size-based indicators (SBIs), such as mean length, evenness of size classes, or the upper 95-percentile of the length frequency distribution; these approaches may not capture full information of size structure. To bridge the gap, we used the variation partitioning approach to examine how the size structure (composition of size classes) responded to fishing, warming and the interaction. We analyzed 28 exploited stocks in the West US, Alaska and North Sea. Our result shows fishing has the most prominent effect on the size structure of the exploited stocks. In addition, the fish stocks experienced higher variability in fishing is more responsive to the temperature effect in their size structure, suggesting that fishing may elevate the sensitivity of exploited stocks in responding to environmental effects. The variation partitioning approach provides complementary information to univariate SBIs in analyzing size structure.

Cold Regime Interannual Variability of Primary and Secondary Producer Community Composition in the Southeastern Bering Sea

PubMed Central

Stauffer, Beth A.; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I.

2015-01-01

Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009–2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing climate scenarios. PMID:26110822

Cold Regime interannual variability of primary and secondary producer community composition in the southeastern Bering Sea.

PubMed

Stauffer, Beth A; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I

2015-01-01

Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009-2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing climate scenarios.

Modeling individual animal histories with multistate capture–recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lebreton, Jean-Dominique; Nichols, James D.; Barker, Richard J.; Pradel, Roger; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.

2009-01-01

Many fields of science begin with a phase of exploration and description, followed by investigations of the processes that account for observed patterns. The science of ecology is no exception, and recent decades have seen a focus on understanding key processes underlying the dynamics of ecological systems. In population ecology, emphasis has shifted from the state variable of population size to the demographic processes responsible for changes in this state variable: birth, death, immigration, and emigration. In evolutionary ecology, some of these same demographic processes, rates of birth and death, are also the determinants of fitness. In animal population ecology, the estimation of state variables and their associated vital rates is especially problematic because of the difficulties in sampling such populations and detecting individual animals. Indeed, early capture–recapture models were developed for the purpose of estimating population size, given the reality that all animals are not caught or detected at any sampling occasion. More recently, capture–recapture models for open populations were developed to draw inferences about survival in the face of these same sampling problems. The focus of this paper is on multi‐state mark–recapture models (MSMR), which first appeared in the 1970s but have undergone substantial development in the last 15 years. These models were developed to deal explicitly with biological variation, in that animals in different “states” (classes defined by location, physiology, behavior, reproductive status, etc.) may have different probabilities of survival and detection. Animal transitions between states are also stochastic and themselves of interest. These general models have proven to be extremely useful and provide a way of thinking about a remarkably wide range of important ecological processes. These methods are now at a stage of refinement and sophistication where they can readily be used by biologists to tackle a wide range of important issues in ecology. In this paper, we draw together information on the state of the art in multistate mark–recapture methods, explaining the models and illustrating their use. We provide a modeling philosophy and a series of general principles on how to conduct analyses. We cover key issues and features, and we anticipate the ways in which we expect the models to develop in the years ahead.

Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. II. Discriminant Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leka, K. D.; Barnes, G.

2003-10-01

We apply statistical tests based on discriminant analysis to the wide range of photospheric magnetic parameters described in a companion paper by Leka & Barnes, with the goal of identifying those properties that are important for the production of energetic events such as solar flares. The photospheric vector magnetic field data from the University of Hawai'i Imaging Vector Magnetograph are well sampled both temporally and spatially, and we include here data covering 24 flare-event and flare-quiet epochs taken from seven active regions. The mean value and rate of change of each magnetic parameter are treated as separate variables, thus evaluating both the parameter's state and its evolution, to determine which properties are associated with flaring. Considering single variables first, Hotelling's T2-tests show small statistical differences between flare-producing and flare-quiet epochs. Even pairs of variables considered simultaneously, which do show a statistical difference for a number of properties, have high error rates, implying a large degree of overlap of the samples. To better distinguish between flare-producing and flare-quiet populations, larger numbers of variables are simultaneously considered; lower error rates result, but no unique combination of variables is clearly the best discriminator. The sample size is too small to directly compare the predictive power of large numbers of variables simultaneously. Instead, we rank all possible four-variable permutations based on Hotelling's T2-test and look for the most frequently appearing variables in the best permutations, with the interpretation that they are most likely to be associated with flaring. These variables include an increasing kurtosis of the twist parameter and a larger standard deviation of the twist parameter, but a smaller standard deviation of the distribution of the horizontal shear angle and a horizontal field that has a smaller standard deviation but a larger kurtosis. To support the ``sorting all permutations'' method of selecting the most frequently occurring variables, we show that the results of a single 10-variable discriminant analysis are consistent with the ranking. We demonstrate that individually, the variables considered here have little ability to differentiate between flaring and flare-quiet populations, but with multivariable combinations, the populations may be distinguished.

Persistent parental effects on the survival and size, but not burst swimming performance of juvenile sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

PubMed

Nadeau, P S; Hinch, S G; Pon, L B; Patterson, D A

2009-08-01

Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka were used as a model in an artificial fertilization experiment to investigate the relationships between individual adult O. nerka and their offspring. Survival, size and burst swimming ability were assessed in fry of known parentage (adult spawners from the Weaver Creek population, British Columbia, Canada). Maternal identity significantly affected the survival rate of eggs at hatch time, though this effect did not extend to fry life stages. The results were also suggestive of a paternal effect on both egg and fry survival, though this could not be separated from the experimental block design. After 4 months of exogenous feeding, fry mass remained under significant maternal influence, though fork length did not, despite having a high correlation with mass. Burst swimming performance was highly variable among individuals, and was not significantly influenced by maternal identity or individual fry size. Collectively, the findings presented here suggest that maternal, and possibly paternal, effects can be integral components of population dynamics in the early life stages of O. nerka. A good understanding of these factors will be essential for scientists and fisheries managers in developing a more holistic view of population-level spawning success and fry survival.

Macromolecular Crowding Induces Spatial Correlations That Control Gene Expression Bursting Patterns.

PubMed

Norred, S Elizabeth; Caveney, Patrick M; Chauhan, Gaurav; Collier, Lauren K; Collier, C Patrick; Abel, Steven M; Simpson, Michael L

2018-05-18

Recent superresolution microscopy studies in E. coli demonstrate that the cytoplasm has highly variable local concentrations where macromolecular crowding plays a central role in establishing membrane-less compartmentalization. This spatial inhomogeneity significantly influences molecular transport and association processes central to gene expression. Yet, little is known about how macromolecular crowding influences gene expression bursting-the episodic process where mRNA and proteins are produced in bursts. Here, we simultaneously measured mRNA and protein reporters in cell-free systems, showing that macromolecular crowding decoupled the well-known relationship between fluctuations in the protein population (noise) and mRNA population statistics. Crowded environments led to a 10-fold increase in protein noise even though there were only modest changes in the mRNA population and fluctuations. Instead, cell-like macromolecular crowding created an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of mRNA ("spatial noise") that led to large variability in the protein production burst size. As a result, the mRNA spatial noise created large temporal fluctuations in the protein population. These results highlight the interplay between macromolecular crowding, spatial inhomogeneities, and the resulting dynamics of gene expression, and provide insights into using these organizational principles in both cell-based and cell-free synthetic biology.

Health Inequalities in Global Context

PubMed Central

Beckfield, Jason; Olafsdottir, Sigrun

2017-01-01

The existence of social inequalities in health is well established. One strand of research focuses on inequalities in health within a single country. A separate and newer strand of research focuses on the relationship between inequality and average population health across countries. Despite the theorization of (presumably variable) social conditions as “fundamental causes” of disease and health, the cross-national literature has focused on average, aggregate population health as the central outcome. Controversies currently surround macro-structural determinants of overall population health such as income inequality. We advance and redirect these debates by conceptualizing inequalities in health as cross-national variables that are sensitive to social conditions. Using data from 48 World Values Survey countries, representing 74% of the world’s population, we examine cross-national variation in inequalities in health. The results reveal substantial variation in health inequalities according to income, education, sex, and migrant status. While higher socioeconomic position is associated with better self-rated health around the globe, the size of the association varies across institutional context, and across dimensions of stratification. There is some evidence that education and income are more strongly associated with self-rated health than sex or migrant status. PMID:29104292

Biology-Culture Co-evolution in Finite Populations.

PubMed

de Boer, Bart; Thompson, Bill

2018-01-19

Language is the result of two concurrent evolutionary processes: biological and cultural inheritance. An influential evolutionary hypothesis known as the moving target problem implies inherent limitations on the interactions between our two inheritance streams that result from a difference in pace: the speed of cultural evolution is thought to rule out cognitive adaptation to culturally evolving aspects of language. We examine this hypothesis formally by casting it as as a problem of adaptation in time-varying environments. We present a mathematical model of biology-culture co-evolution in finite populations: a generalisation of the Moran process, treating co-evolution as coupled non-independent Markov processes, providing a general formulation of the moving target hypothesis in precise probabilistic terms. Rapidly varying culture decreases the probability of biological adaptation. However, we show that this effect declines with population size and with stronger links between biology and culture: in realistically sized finite populations, stochastic effects can carry cognitive specialisations to fixation in the face of variable culture, especially if the effects of those specialisations are amplified through cultural evolution. These results support the view that language arises from interactions between our two major inheritance streams, rather than from one primary evolutionary process that dominates another.

Longevity of clonal plants: why it matters and how to measure it

PubMed Central

de Witte, Lucienne C.; Stöcklin, Jürg

2010-01-01

Background Species' life-history and population dynamics are strongly shaped by the longevity of individuals, but life span is one of the least accessible demographic traits, particularly in clonal plants. Continuous vegetative reproduction of genets enables persistence despite low or no sexual reproduction, affecting genet turnover rates and population stability. Therefore, the longevity of clonal plants is of considerable biological interest, but remains relatively poorly known. Scope Here, we critically review the present knowledge on the longevity of clonal plants and discuss its importance for population persistence. Direct life-span measurements such as growth-ring analysis in woody plants are relatively easy to take, although, for many clonal plants, these methods are not adequate due to the variable growth pattern of ramets and difficult genet identification. Recently, indirect methods have been introduced in which genet size and annual shoot increments are used to estimate genet age. These methods, often based on molecular techniques, allow the investigation of genet size and age structure of whole populations, a crucial issue for understanding their viability and persistence. However, indirect estimates of clonal longevity are impeded because the process of ageing in clonal plants is still poorly understood and because their size and age are not always well correlated. Alternative estimators for genet life span such as somatic mutations have recently been suggested. Conclusions Empirical knowledge on the longevity of clonal species has increased considerably in the last few years. Maximum age estimates are an indicator of population persistence, but are not sufficient to evaluate turnover rates and the ability of long-lived clonal plants to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience. In order to understand the dynamics of populations it will be necessary to measure genet size and age structure, not only life spans of single individuals, and to use such data for modelling of genet dynamics. PMID:20880935

Quantifying Grain-Size Variability of Metal Pollutants in Road-Deposited Sediments Using the Coefficient of Variation

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaoxue; Li, Xuyong

2017-01-01

Particle grain size is an important indicator for the variability in physical characteristics and pollutants composition of road-deposited sediments (RDS). Quantitative assessment of the grain-size variability in RDS amount, metal concentration, metal load and GSFLoad is essential to elimination of the uncertainty it causes in estimation of RDS emission load and formulation of control strategies. In this study, grain-size variability was explored and quantified using the coefficient of variation (Cv) of the particle size compositions, metal concentrations, metal loads, and GSFLoad values in RDS. Several trends in grain-size variability of RDS were identified: (i) the medium class (105–450 µm) variability in terms of particle size composition, metal loads, and GSFLoad values in RDS was smaller than the fine (<105 µm) and coarse (450–2000 µm) class; (ii) The grain-size variability in terms of metal concentrations increased as the particle size increased, while the metal concentrations decreased; (iii) When compared to the Lorenz coefficient (Lc), the Cv was similarly effective at describing the grain-size variability, whereas it is simpler to calculate because it did not require the data to be pre-processed. The results of this study will facilitate identification of the uncertainty in modelling RDS caused by grain-size class variability. PMID:28788078

Caution regarding the choice of standard deviations to guide sample size calculations in clinical trials.

PubMed

Chen, Henian; Zhang, Nanhua; Lu, Xiaosun; Chen, Sophie

2013-08-01

The method used to determine choice of standard deviation (SD) is inadequately reported in clinical trials. Underestimations of the population SD may result in underpowered clinical trials. This study demonstrates how using the wrong method to determine population SD can lead to inaccurate sample sizes and underpowered studies, and offers recommendations to maximize the likelihood of achieving adequate statistical power. We review the practice of reporting sample size and its effect on the power of trials published in major journals. Simulated clinical trials were used to compare the effects of different methods of determining SD on power and sample size calculations. Prior to 1996, sample size calculations were reported in just 1%-42% of clinical trials. This proportion increased from 38% to 54% after the initial Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) was published in 1996, and from 64% to 95% after the revised CONSORT was published in 2001. Nevertheless, underpowered clinical trials are still common. Our simulated data showed that all minimal and 25th-percentile SDs fell below 44 (the population SD), regardless of sample size (from 5 to 50). For sample sizes 5 and 50, the minimum sample SDs underestimated the population SD by 90.7% and 29.3%, respectively. If only one sample was available, there was less than 50% chance that the actual power equaled or exceeded the planned power of 80% for detecting a median effect size (Cohen's d = 0.5) when using the sample SD to calculate the sample size. The proportions of studies with actual power of at least 80% were about 95%, 90%, 85%, and 80% when we used the larger SD, 80% upper confidence limit (UCL) of SD, 70% UCL of SD, and 60% UCL of SD to calculate the sample size, respectively. When more than one sample was available, the weighted average SD resulted in about 50% of trials being underpowered; the proportion of trials with power of 80% increased from 90% to 100% when the 75th percentile and the maximum SD from 10 samples were used. Greater sample size is needed to achieve a higher proportion of studies having actual power of 80%. This study only addressed sample size calculation for continuous outcome variables. We recommend using the 60% UCL of SD, maximum SD, 80th-percentile SD, and 75th-percentile SD to calculate sample size when 1 or 2 samples, 3 samples, 4-5 samples, and more than 5 samples of data are available, respectively. Using the sample SD or average SD to calculate sample size should be avoided.

On the competition among aerosol number, size and composition in predicting CCN variability: a multi-annual field study in an urbanized desert.

PubMed

Crosbie, E; Youn, J-S; Balch, B; Wonaschütz, A; Shingler, T; Wang, Z; Conant, W C; Betterton, E A; Sorooshian, A

2015-02-10

A 2-year data set of measured CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentrations at 0.2 % supersaturation is combined with aerosol size distribution and aerosol composition data to probe the effects of aerosol number concentrations, size distribution and composition on CCN patterns. Data were collected over a period of 2 years (2012-2014) in central Tucson, Arizona: a significant urban area surrounded by a sparsely populated desert. Average CCN concentrations are typically lowest in spring (233 cm -3 ), highest in winter (430 cm -3 ) and have a secondary peak during the North American monsoon season (July to September; 372 cm -3 ). There is significant variability outside of seasonal patterns, with extreme concentrations (1 and 99 % levels) ranging from 56 to 1945 cm -3 as measured during the winter, the season with highest variability. Modeled CCN concentrations based on fixed chemical composition achieve better closure in winter, with size and number alone able to predict 82% of the variance in CCN concentration. Changes in aerosol chemical composition are typically aligned with changes in size and aerosol number, such that hygroscopicity can be parameterized even though it is still variable. In summer, models based on fixed chemical composition explain at best only 41% (pre-monsoon) and 36% (monsoon) of the variance. This is attributed to the effects of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production, the competition between new particle formation and condensational growth, the complex interaction of meteorology, regional and local emissions and multi-phase chemistry during the North American monsoon. Chemical composition is found to be an important factor for improving predictability in spring and on longer timescales in winter. Parameterized models typically exhibit improved predictive skill when there are strong relationships between CCN concentrations and the prevailing meteorology and dominant aerosol physicochemical processes, suggesting that similar findings could be possible in other locations with comparable climates and geography.

Inequality of Size and Size Increment in Pinus banksiana in Relation to Stand Dynamics and Annual Growth Rate

PubMed Central

Metsaranta, Juha M.; Lieffers, Victor J.

2008-01-01

Background and Aims Changes in size inequality in tree populations are often attributed to changes in the mode of competition over time. The mode of competition may also fluctuate annually in response to variation in growing conditions. Factors causing growth rate to vary can also influence competition processes, and thus influence how size hierarchies develop. Methods Detailed data obtained by tree-ring reconstruction were used to study annual changes in size and size increment inequality in several even-aged, fire-origin jack pine (Pinus banksiana) stands in the boreal shield and boreal plains ecozones in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, by using the Gini and Lorenz asymmetry coefficients. Key Results The inequality of size was related to variables reflecting long-term stand dynamics (e.g. stand density, mean tree size and average competition, as quantified using a distance-weighted absolute size index). The inequality of size increment was greater and more variable than the inequality of size. Inequality of size increment was significantly related to annual growth rate at the stand level, and was higher when growth rate was low. Inequality of size increment was usually due primarily to large numbers of trees with low growth rates, except during years with low growth rate when it was often due to small numbers of trees with high growth rates. The amount of competition to which individual trees were subject was not strongly related to the inequality of size increment. Conclusions Differences in growth rate among trees during years of poor growth may form the basis for development of size hierarchies on which asymmetric competition can act. A complete understanding of the dynamics of these forests requires further evaluation of the way in which factors that influence variation in annual growth rate also affect the mode of competition and the development of size hierarchies. PMID:18089583

Inequality of size and size increment in Pinus banksiana in relation to stand dynamics and annual growth rate.

PubMed

Metsaranta, Juha M; Lieffers, Victor J

2008-03-01

Changes in size inequality in tree populations are often attributed to changes in the mode of competition over time. The mode of competition may also fluctuate annually in response to variation in growing conditions. Factors causing growth rate to vary can also influence competition processes, and thus influence how size hierarchies develop. Detailed data obtained by tree-ring reconstruction were used to study annual changes in size and size increment inequality in several even-aged, fire-origin jack pine (Pinus banksiana) stands in the boreal shield and boreal plains ecozones in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, by using the Gini and Lorenz asymmetry coefficients. The inequality of size was related to variables reflecting long-term stand dynamics (e.g. stand density, mean tree size and average competition, as quantified using a distance-weighted absolute size index). The inequality of size increment was greater and more variable than the inequality of size. Inequality of size increment was significantly related to annual growth rate at the stand level, and was higher when growth rate was low. Inequality of size increment was usually due primarily to large numbers of trees with low growth rates, except during years with low growth rate when it was often due to small numbers of trees with high growth rates. The amount of competition to which individual trees were subject was not strongly related to the inequality of size increment. Differences in growth rate among trees during years of poor growth may form the basis for development of size hierarchies on which asymmetric competition can act. A complete understanding of the dynamics of these forests requires further evaluation of the way in which factors that influence variation in annual growth rate also affect the mode of competition and the development of size hierarchies.

Four quadrant control of induction motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, Irving G.

1991-01-01

Induction motors are the nation's workhorse, being the motor of choice in most applications due to their simple rugged construction. It has been estimated that 14 to 27 percent of the country's total electricity use could be saved with adjustable speed drives. Until now, induction motors have not been suited well for variable speed or servo-drives, due to the inherent complexity, size, and inefficiency of their variable speed controls. Work at NASA Lewis Research Center on field oriented control of induction motors using pulse population modulation method holds the promise for the desired drive electronics. The system allows for a variable voltage to frequency ratio which enables the user to operate the motor at maximum efficiency, while having independent control of both the speed and torque of an induction motor in all four quadrants of the speed torque map. Multiple horsepower machine drives were demonstrated, and work is on-going to develop a 20 hp average, 40 hp peak class of machine. The pulse population technique, results to date, and projections for implementation of this existing new motor control technology are discussed.